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ShawnLing
2021-03-30
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ShawnLing
2021-03-30
Toh
Archegos? Argh, Chaos More Like<blockquote>Archegos？啊，更像是混乱</blockquote>
ShawnLing
2021-03-25
Big red
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ShawnLing
2021-03-25
like and test save my red portfolio
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ShawnLing
2021-03-11
Test
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ShawnLing
2021-03-11
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Argh, Chaos More Like<blockquote>Archegos？啊，更像是混乱</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149049776","media":"zerohedge","summary":"I noted yesterday that the expected market turbulence caused by the Archegos sell-off was not repres","content":"<p>I noted yesterday that the expected market turbulence caused by the Archegos sell-off was not representative of the underlying structural issues that will guide markets going forwards. I stick by that claim, but even so what a messy day it was. Some individual stocks got hit hard, and US bond yields were up, presumably due to the need to sell anything to get liquidity, while the USD see-sawed.<b>Archegos? ‘</b><i><b>Argh, chaos</b></i><b>’ more like.</b></p><p><blockquote>我昨天指出，Archegos抛售造成的预期市场动荡并不代表将指导市场未来发展的潜在结构性问题。我坚持这种说法，但即使如此，这也是多么混乱的一天。一些个股受到重创，美国债券收益率上升，大概是因为需要出售任何东西来获得流动性，而美元则出现拉锯。<b>阿尔切戈斯？</b><i><b>啊，混乱</b></i><b>“更像是。</b></blockquote></p><p>This overshadowed the good news that the Suez Canal is now open again. However, there is a link between the two:<b>both stories reveal how stupid the key infrastructure of the global economy and financial system still is. ‘Too big to sail and too big to fail’, as some dub the two halves of this dyad: and Joe Public can again see our system encourages entities to get so large and complex that when a simple incident happens, everything gets stuck.</b>Something surely needs to change, unless we are going to assume there can’t be any more ‘Argh, chaos’ “because markets”, or any more stuck giant ships in the Suez Canal “because boats”.</p><p><blockquote>这掩盖了苏伊士运河现在重新开放的好消息。然而，两者之间存在联系：<b>这两个故事都揭示了全球经济和金融体系的关键基础设施仍然是多么愚蠢。“太大而不能航行和太大而不能失败”，正如一些人所说的那样：乔公众可以再次看到我们的系统鼓励实体变得如此庞大和复杂，以至于当一个简单的事件发生时，一切都陷入困境。</b>有些事情肯定需要改变，除非我们假设不会有更多的“啊，混乱”“因为市场”，或者更多的巨轮被困在苏伊士运河“因为船”。</blockquote></p><p>So, change? Fed Governor Waller spoke to the Peterson Institute for International Economics yesterday, where he<b>rejected any suggestions the Fed was close to embracing the MMT</b>: he wanted to “<i>definitively put that narrative to rest. It is simply wrong</i>”. Borrowing costs are<i>not</i>being kept low to help finance the government, apparently. (<b>It’s all inflation; and unemployment; and social justice; and the climate</b>?) Clearly there won’t be any need for an Operation Twist and Shout or for Yield Curve Control then…but can we get that in writing?</p><p><blockquote>所以，改变？美联储理事沃勒昨日在彼得森国际经济研究所发表讲话，他在<b>拒绝任何有关美联储即将接受MMT的建议</b>：他想“<i>彻底结束这种说法。这是完全错误的</i>”.借款成本为<i>不</i>显然是为了帮助政府融资而保持低调。（<b>都是通货膨胀；和失业；和社会正义；还有气候</b>?)显然，那么就不需要扭曲和呼喊操作或收益率曲线控制了……但我们能把它写下来吗？</blockquote></p><p>At the same time,<b>the press reports the Biden administration is planning a</b><i><b>further</b></i><b>Covid relief bill separate from a key infrastructure bill to be launched Wednesday; and the latter is now rumored to be for as much as</b><i><b>USD4 trillion</b></i><b>, or close to 20% of GDP</b>, funded by USD3 trillion of tax hikes on businesses and the rich, the largest hike in a generation, as opposed to the original idea of USD3 trillion in spending funded by USD1 trillion of taxes.</p><p><blockquote>同时，<b>据媒体报道，拜登政府正在计划一项</b><i><b>更远地</b></i><b>Covid救济法案与将于周三推出的关键基础设施法案分开；而后者现在据传售价高达</b><i><b>4万亿美元</b></i><b>，或接近GDP的20%</b>由对企业和富人增税3万亿美元资助，这是一代人以来最大的一次增税，而最初的想法是由1万亿美元税收资助3万亿美元支出。</blockquote></p><p>If the larger stimulus package is the one put forward, it means<b>there is no sign of MMT in the White House</b>either, because the net spend of USD1 trillion (over a decade) is hardly in the money-printing category. Instead,<b>there is a</b><b><i>redistributive</i></b><b>fiscal package that presumes USD3 trillion the rich have can be spent more productively on bridges, roads, and ports</b>, etc., than on $100m condos filled with gold-dusted caviar or stock buybacks. Cue a shift of political debate from ‘MMT’ vs. ‘no MMT’ to ‘The government doesn’t know what it’s doing!’ vs. ‘The rich<i>do</i>know what they are doing – turning the US into an oligarchic kleptocracy’. And may the best lobbyists win.</p><p><blockquote>如果提出更大的刺激方案，这意味着<b>白宫没有MMT的迹象</b>或者，因为1万亿美元的净支出（超过十年）几乎不属于印钞范畴。相反，<b>有一个</b><b><i>再分配</i></b><b>假设富人拥有的3万亿美元可以更有效地用于桥梁、道路和港口的财政计划</b>等等。，而不是购买价值1亿美元的公寓，里面装满了金子鱼子酱或股票回购。暗示政治辩论从“MMT”与“没有MMT”转变为“政府不知道自己在做什么！”vs.富人<i>做</i>知道他们在做什么——把美国变成一个寡头盗贼统治。愿最好的说客获胜。</blockquote></p><p>As a linked aside, yesterday I saw 1963 US plans for an alternative to the Suez Canal, because at the time Egypt was a Soviet client state. This was to use *530* nukes to blow a 160-mile long, 1,500 foot deep channel through Israel from its Mediterranean coast to the Red Sea, which would “<i>probably contribute greatly to the economic development of the surrounding area</i>”(!) That underlines the idiocy of central planning<i>and</i>of Cold War thinking. Which is doubly worrying given any new Cold War is again very likely going to see key global infrastructure in the hands of states not aligned with US geostrategic interests, and the US is already talking about its own Belt and Road rival (as China seems to slowly back away from the economic drain of its own).<b>Beware Americans bearing nukes.</b></p><p><blockquote>作为一个相关的旁白，昨天我看到了1963年美国关于苏伊士运河替代方案的计划，因为当时埃及是苏联的附庸国。这是使用*530*核武器炸毁一条从以色列地中海海岸到红海的160英里长、1500英尺深的通道，这将“<i>可能对周边地区的经济发展有很大的贡献</i>“（！）这凸显了中央计划的愚蠢<i>和</i>冷战思维。这更加令人担忧，因为任何新的冷战都很可能再次看到关键的全球基础设施掌握在与美国地缘战略利益不一致的国家手中，而且美国已经在谈论自己的一带一路竞争对手（因为中国似乎正在慢慢远离自己的经济消耗）。<b>当心携带核武器的美国人。</b></blockquote></p><p>Yet the economic national-security Hamiltonian model, the ideas of Henry George, and the fact Eisenhower built the US inter-state highway network partially to prevent Soviet invasion from either coast, still all hold as much water as the glow-in-the-dark 160-mile long monstrosity through Israel would have.</p><p><blockquote>然而，经济国家安全的汉密尔顿模型、亨利·乔治的想法，以及艾森豪威尔建立美国州际高速公路网络部分是为了防止苏联从任何一个海岸入侵的事实，仍然与穿过以色列的160英里长的夜光怪物一样具有足够的水分。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, as the US and nukes and the Middle East make headlines for different reasons today, but still leaving much of Israel feeling antsy, BOJ Governor Kuroda just stated he will continue to buy ETFs within a JPY12 trillion cap “<i>with a close eye on markets</i>” even after Covid is over; he won’t sell the BOJ’s stock of ETFs; and the inflation target stays at 2% (ROFL!). He also thinks that it is “<i>natural for the government to deploy fiscal stimulus flexibly, though Japan must also maintain market trust over its medium- and long-term fiscal health</i>.” (Will the people in the market who associate Japan with long-term fiscal health please stand up?) The BOJ will also “<i>support various entities’ efforts towards reform as Japan faces challenges in the post-Covid world</i>”: does he mean the local Olympic Games Committee? In short, more of the same is on offer from the BOJ – which has worked so magnificently for it so far.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，由于美国、核武器和中东今天因不同原因成为头条新闻，但仍让以色列大部分人感到不安，日本央行行长黑田东彦刚刚表示，他将继续购买12万亿日元上限内的ETF。”<i>密切关注市场</i>“即使在新冠疫情结束之后；他不会出售日本央行的ETF股票；通胀目标保持在2%（ROFL！）。他还认为这是“<i>日本政府灵活部署财政刺激是很自然的，不过日本也必须保持市场对其中长期财政健康的信任</i>.“（市场上把日本与长期财政健康联系在一起的人请站起来好吗？）日本央行也将”<i>随着日本在后疫情时代面临挑战，支持各实体的改革努力</i>”：他是指当地的奥委会吗？简而言之，日本央行正在提供更多同样的服务——迄今为止，日本央行已经为其取得了巨大的成功。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>That’s another lesson for the US.<b>Structural reform needs to be</b><i><b>structural</b></i>, not just cementing over river beds – or blowing up the Negev desert.</p><p><blockquote>这对美国来说是另一个教训。<b>结构性改革需要</b><i><b>结构上的</b></i>不仅仅是在河床上水泥——或者炸毁内盖夫沙漠。</blockquote></p><p>On which note, the FTSE Bond Index just announced that it is about to include Chinese government bonds (CGBs) in its world index, allowing global investors to buy both sides of the Cold War bet and all related public expenditures. But there is a sting in the tail:<b>the FTSE CGB weighting will be just 5.25%, not the 6.5% expected, starting October 29, and this will be tapered in over 36 months, not 12 months as originally believed</b>.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，富时债券指数刚刚宣布，即将将中国政府债券（CGB）纳入其世界指数，允许全球投资者购买冷战赌注的双方以及所有相关的公共支出。但尾巴上有一个刺：<b>从10月29日开始，富时广发银行的权重将仅为5.25%，而不是预期的6.5%，并且这一权重将在36个月内逐渐减少，而不是最初认为的12个月</b>.</blockquote></p><p>A few months ago, when China was seeing too much capital flow in for its liking, that slower pace might have been welcome. Indeed, and ironically, much of the capital that went in to Chinese markets from foreign funds is believed to have been encouraged to flow straight back out again via different channels to prevent excess appreciation pressure on the currency (and note that China’s FX reserves have hardly soared). Yet CNY and CNH are starting to move markedly lower again; and genuine capital outflows are being experienced as US yields rise, even despite bumper Covid-related trade surpluses (which will fade with the virus does). Moreover,<b>with the geopolitical backdrop this Cold, how could this most political of all FX crosses not eventually respond in kind?</b></p><p><blockquote>几个月前，当中国看到过多的资本流入时，放慢速度可能会受到欢迎。事实上，具有讽刺意味的是，从外国基金进入中国市场的大部分资本被鼓励通过不同渠道再次直接流出，以防止人民币面临过度升值压力（请注意，中国的外汇储备几乎没有飙升）。然而，CNY和CNH又开始明显走低；随着美国收益率上升，真正的资本外流正在经历，尽管与新冠病毒相关的贸易顺差很大（这种顺差会随着病毒而消退）。而且，<b>在如此寒冷的地缘政治背景下，这种最具政治性的外汇交叉货币最终怎么可能不做出同样的回应呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>One wonders what the Fed (and ECB and BOJ) would make of any sustained move lower in CNY, given what it will mean for inflation; and the White House, given what it means for jobs.</p><p><blockquote>人们想知道美联储（以及欧洲央行和日本央行）会如何看待人民币持续走低，因为这对通胀意味着什么；还有白宫，考虑到这对就业的意义。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Archegos? Argh, Chaos More Like<blockquote>Archegos？啊，更像是混乱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nArchegos? Argh, Chaos More Like<blockquote>Archegos？啊，更像是混乱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-30 22:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I noted yesterday that the expected market turbulence caused by the Archegos sell-off was not representative of the underlying structural issues that will guide markets going forwards. I stick by that claim, but even so what a messy day it was. Some individual stocks got hit hard, and US bond yields were up, presumably due to the need to sell anything to get liquidity, while the USD see-sawed.<b>Archegos? ‘</b><i><b>Argh, chaos</b></i><b>’ more like.</b></p><p><blockquote>我昨天指出，Archegos抛售造成的预期市场动荡并不代表将指导市场未来发展的潜在结构性问题。我坚持这种说法，但即使如此，这也是多么混乱的一天。一些个股受到重创，美国债券收益率上升，大概是因为需要出售任何东西来获得流动性，而美元则出现拉锯。<b>阿尔切戈斯？</b><i><b>啊，混乱</b></i><b>“更像是。</b></blockquote></p><p>This overshadowed the good news that the Suez Canal is now open again. However, there is a link between the two:<b>both stories reveal how stupid the key infrastructure of the global economy and financial system still is. ‘Too big to sail and too big to fail’, as some dub the two halves of this dyad: and Joe Public can again see our system encourages entities to get so large and complex that when a simple incident happens, everything gets stuck.</b>Something surely needs to change, unless we are going to assume there can’t be any more ‘Argh, chaos’ “because markets”, or any more stuck giant ships in the Suez Canal “because boats”.</p><p><blockquote>这掩盖了苏伊士运河现在重新开放的好消息。然而，两者之间存在联系：<b>这两个故事都揭示了全球经济和金融体系的关键基础设施仍然是多么愚蠢。“太大而不能航行和太大而不能失败”，正如一些人所说的那样：乔公众可以再次看到我们的系统鼓励实体变得如此庞大和复杂，以至于当一个简单的事件发生时，一切都陷入困境。</b>有些事情肯定需要改变，除非我们假设不会有更多的“啊，混乱”“因为市场”，或者更多的巨轮被困在苏伊士运河“因为船”。</blockquote></p><p>So, change? Fed Governor Waller spoke to the Peterson Institute for International Economics yesterday, where he<b>rejected any suggestions the Fed was close to embracing the MMT</b>: he wanted to “<i>definitively put that narrative to rest. It is simply wrong</i>”. Borrowing costs are<i>not</i>being kept low to help finance the government, apparently. (<b>It’s all inflation; and unemployment; and social justice; and the climate</b>?) Clearly there won’t be any need for an Operation Twist and Shout or for Yield Curve Control then…but can we get that in writing?</p><p><blockquote>所以，改变？美联储理事沃勒昨日在彼得森国际经济研究所发表讲话，他在<b>拒绝任何有关美联储即将接受MMT的建议</b>：他想“<i>彻底结束这种说法。这是完全错误的</i>”.借款成本为<i>不</i>显然是为了帮助政府融资而保持低调。（<b>都是通货膨胀；和失业；和社会正义；还有气候</b>?)显然，那么就不需要扭曲和呼喊操作或收益率曲线控制了……但我们能把它写下来吗？</blockquote></p><p>At the same time,<b>the press reports the Biden administration is planning a</b><i><b>further</b></i><b>Covid relief bill separate from a key infrastructure bill to be launched Wednesday; and the latter is now rumored to be for as much as</b><i><b>USD4 trillion</b></i><b>, or close to 20% of GDP</b>, funded by USD3 trillion of tax hikes on businesses and the rich, the largest hike in a generation, as opposed to the original idea of USD3 trillion in spending funded by USD1 trillion of taxes.</p><p><blockquote>同时，<b>据媒体报道，拜登政府正在计划一项</b><i><b>更远地</b></i><b>Covid救济法案与将于周三推出的关键基础设施法案分开；而后者现在据传售价高达</b><i><b>4万亿美元</b></i><b>，或接近GDP的20%</b>由对企业和富人增税3万亿美元资助，这是一代人以来最大的一次增税，而最初的想法是由1万亿美元税收资助3万亿美元支出。</blockquote></p><p>If the larger stimulus package is the one put forward, it means<b>there is no sign of MMT in the White House</b>either, because the net spend of USD1 trillion (over a decade) is hardly in the money-printing category. Instead,<b>there is a</b><b><i>redistributive</i></b><b>fiscal package that presumes USD3 trillion the rich have can be spent more productively on bridges, roads, and ports</b>, etc., than on $100m condos filled with gold-dusted caviar or stock buybacks. Cue a shift of political debate from ‘MMT’ vs. ‘no MMT’ to ‘The government doesn’t know what it’s doing!’ vs. ‘The rich<i>do</i>know what they are doing – turning the US into an oligarchic kleptocracy’. And may the best lobbyists win.</p><p><blockquote>如果提出更大的刺激方案，这意味着<b>白宫没有MMT的迹象</b>或者，因为1万亿美元的净支出（超过十年）几乎不属于印钞范畴。相反，<b>有一个</b><b><i>再分配</i></b><b>假设富人拥有的3万亿美元可以更有效地用于桥梁、道路和港口的财政计划</b>等等。，而不是购买价值1亿美元的公寓，里面装满了金子鱼子酱或股票回购。暗示政治辩论从“MMT”与“没有MMT”转变为“政府不知道自己在做什么！”vs.富人<i>做</i>知道他们在做什么——把美国变成一个寡头盗贼统治。愿最好的说客获胜。</blockquote></p><p>As a linked aside, yesterday I saw 1963 US plans for an alternative to the Suez Canal, because at the time Egypt was a Soviet client state. This was to use *530* nukes to blow a 160-mile long, 1,500 foot deep channel through Israel from its Mediterranean coast to the Red Sea, which would “<i>probably contribute greatly to the economic development of the surrounding area</i>”(!) That underlines the idiocy of central planning<i>and</i>of Cold War thinking. Which is doubly worrying given any new Cold War is again very likely going to see key global infrastructure in the hands of states not aligned with US geostrategic interests, and the US is already talking about its own Belt and Road rival (as China seems to slowly back away from the economic drain of its own).<b>Beware Americans bearing nukes.</b></p><p><blockquote>作为一个相关的旁白，昨天我看到了1963年美国关于苏伊士运河替代方案的计划，因为当时埃及是苏联的附庸国。这是使用*530*核武器炸毁一条从以色列地中海海岸到红海的160英里长、1500英尺深的通道，这将“<i>可能对周边地区的经济发展有很大的贡献</i>“（！）这凸显了中央计划的愚蠢<i>和</i>冷战思维。这更加令人担忧，因为任何新的冷战都很可能再次看到关键的全球基础设施掌握在与美国地缘战略利益不一致的国家手中，而且美国已经在谈论自己的一带一路竞争对手（因为中国似乎正在慢慢远离自己的经济消耗）。<b>当心携带核武器的美国人。</b></blockquote></p><p>Yet the economic national-security Hamiltonian model, the ideas of Henry George, and the fact Eisenhower built the US inter-state highway network partially to prevent Soviet invasion from either coast, still all hold as much water as the glow-in-the-dark 160-mile long monstrosity through Israel would have.</p><p><blockquote>然而，经济国家安全的汉密尔顿模型、亨利·乔治的想法，以及艾森豪威尔建立美国州际高速公路网络部分是为了防止苏联从任何一个海岸入侵的事实，仍然与穿过以色列的160英里长的夜光怪物一样具有足够的水分。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, as the US and nukes and the Middle East make headlines for different reasons today, but still leaving much of Israel feeling antsy, BOJ Governor Kuroda just stated he will continue to buy ETFs within a JPY12 trillion cap “<i>with a close eye on markets</i>” even after Covid is over; he won’t sell the BOJ’s stock of ETFs; and the inflation target stays at 2% (ROFL!). He also thinks that it is “<i>natural for the government to deploy fiscal stimulus flexibly, though Japan must also maintain market trust over its medium- and long-term fiscal health</i>.” (Will the people in the market who associate Japan with long-term fiscal health please stand up?) The BOJ will also “<i>support various entities’ efforts towards reform as Japan faces challenges in the post-Covid world</i>”: does he mean the local Olympic Games Committee? In short, more of the same is on offer from the BOJ – which has worked so magnificently for it so far.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，由于美国、核武器和中东今天因不同原因成为头条新闻，但仍让以色列大部分人感到不安，日本央行行长黑田东彦刚刚表示，他将继续购买12万亿日元上限内的ETF。”<i>密切关注市场</i>“即使在新冠疫情结束之后；他不会出售日本央行的ETF股票；通胀目标保持在2%（ROFL！）。他还认为这是“<i>日本政府灵活部署财政刺激是很自然的，不过日本也必须保持市场对其中长期财政健康的信任</i>.“（市场上把日本与长期财政健康联系在一起的人请站起来好吗？）日本央行也将”<i>随着日本在后疫情时代面临挑战，支持各实体的改革努力</i>”：他是指当地的奥委会吗？简而言之，日本央行正在提供更多同样的服务——迄今为止，日本央行已经为其取得了巨大的成功。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>That’s another lesson for the US.<b>Structural reform needs to be</b><i><b>structural</b></i>, not just cementing over river beds – or blowing up the Negev desert.</p><p><blockquote>这对美国来说是另一个教训。<b>结构性改革需要</b><i><b>结构上的</b></i>不仅仅是在河床上水泥——或者炸毁内盖夫沙漠。</blockquote></p><p>On which note, the FTSE Bond Index just announced that it is about to include Chinese government bonds (CGBs) in its world index, allowing global investors to buy both sides of the Cold War bet and all related public expenditures. But there is a sting in the tail:<b>the FTSE CGB weighting will be just 5.25%, not the 6.5% expected, starting October 29, and this will be tapered in over 36 months, not 12 months as originally believed</b>.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，富时债券指数刚刚宣布，即将将中国政府债券（CGB）纳入其世界指数，允许全球投资者购买冷战赌注的双方以及所有相关的公共支出。但尾巴上有一个刺：<b>从10月29日开始，富时广发银行的权重将仅为5.25%，而不是预期的6.5%，并且这一权重将在36个月内逐渐减少，而不是最初认为的12个月</b>.</blockquote></p><p>A few months ago, when China was seeing too much capital flow in for its liking, that slower pace might have been welcome. Indeed, and ironically, much of the capital that went in to Chinese markets from foreign funds is believed to have been encouraged to flow straight back out again via different channels to prevent excess appreciation pressure on the currency (and note that China’s FX reserves have hardly soared). Yet CNY and CNH are starting to move markedly lower again; and genuine capital outflows are being experienced as US yields rise, even despite bumper Covid-related trade surpluses (which will fade with the virus does). Moreover,<b>with the geopolitical backdrop this Cold, how could this most political of all FX crosses not eventually respond in kind?</b></p><p><blockquote>几个月前，当中国看到过多的资本流入时，放慢速度可能会受到欢迎。事实上，具有讽刺意味的是，从外国基金进入中国市场的大部分资本被鼓励通过不同渠道再次直接流出，以防止人民币面临过度升值压力（请注意，中国的外汇储备几乎没有飙升）。然而，CNY和CNH又开始明显走低；随着美国收益率上升，真正的资本外流正在经历，尽管与新冠病毒相关的贸易顺差很大（这种顺差会随着病毒而消退）。而且，<b>在如此寒冷的地缘政治背景下，这种最具政治性的外汇交叉货币最终怎么可能不做出同样的回应呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>One wonders what the Fed (and ECB and BOJ) would make of any sustained move lower in CNY, given what it will mean for inflation; and the White House, given what it means for jobs.</p><p><blockquote>人们想知道美联储（以及欧洲央行和日本央行）会如何看待人民币持续走低，因为这对通胀意味着什么；还有白宫，考虑到这对就业的意义。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/archegos-argh-chaos-more?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487980eafa9a1c606a77e47e87065651","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/archegos-argh-chaos-more?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149049776","content_text":"I noted yesterday that the expected market turbulence caused by the Archegos sell-off was not representative of the underlying structural issues that will guide markets going forwards. I stick by that claim, but even so what a messy day it was. Some individual stocks got hit hard, and US bond yields were up, presumably due to the need to sell anything to get liquidity, while the USD see-sawed.Archegos? ‘Argh, chaos’ more like.This overshadowed the good news that the Suez Canal is now open again. However, there is a link between the two:both stories reveal how stupid the key infrastructure of the global economy and financial system still is. ‘Too big to sail and too big to fail’, as some dub the two halves of this dyad: and Joe Public can again see our system encourages entities to get so large and complex that when a simple incident happens, everything gets stuck.Something surely needs to change, unless we are going to assume there can’t be any more ‘Argh, chaos’ “because markets”, or any more stuck giant ships in the Suez Canal “because boats”.So, change? Fed Governor Waller spoke to the Peterson Institute for International Economics yesterday, where herejected any suggestions the Fed was close to embracing the MMT: he wanted to “definitively put that narrative to rest. It is simply wrong”. Borrowing costs arenotbeing kept low to help finance the government, apparently. (It’s all inflation; and unemployment; and social justice; and the climate?) Clearly there won’t be any need for an Operation Twist and Shout or for Yield Curve Control then…but can we get that in writing?At the same time,the press reports the Biden administration is planning afurtherCovid relief bill separate from a key infrastructure bill to be launched Wednesday; and the latter is now rumored to be for as much asUSD4 trillion, or close to 20% of GDP, funded by USD3 trillion of tax hikes on businesses and the rich, the largest hike in a generation, as opposed to the original idea of USD3 trillion in spending funded by USD1 trillion of taxes.If the larger stimulus package is the one put forward, it meansthere is no sign of MMT in the White Houseeither, because the net spend of USD1 trillion (over a decade) is hardly in the money-printing category. Instead,there is aredistributivefiscal package that presumes USD3 trillion the rich have can be spent more productively on bridges, roads, and ports, etc., than on $100m condos filled with gold-dusted caviar or stock buybacks. Cue a shift of political debate from ‘MMT’ vs. ‘no MMT’ to ‘The government doesn’t know what it’s doing!’ vs. ‘The richdoknow what they are doing – turning the US into an oligarchic kleptocracy’. And may the best lobbyists win.As a linked aside, yesterday I saw 1963 US plans for an alternative to the Suez Canal, because at the time Egypt was a Soviet client state. This was to use *530* nukes to blow a 160-mile long, 1,500 foot deep channel through Israel from its Mediterranean coast to the Red Sea, which would “probably contribute greatly to the economic development of the surrounding area”(!) That underlines the idiocy of central planningandof Cold War thinking. Which is doubly worrying given any new Cold War is again very likely going to see key global infrastructure in the hands of states not aligned with US geostrategic interests, and the US is already talking about its own Belt and Road rival (as China seems to slowly back away from the economic drain of its own).Beware Americans bearing nukes.Yet the economic national-security Hamiltonian model, the ideas of Henry George, and the fact Eisenhower built the US inter-state highway network partially to prevent Soviet invasion from either coast, still all hold as much water as the glow-in-the-dark 160-mile long monstrosity through Israel would have.Meanwhile, as the US and nukes and the Middle East make headlines for different reasons today, but still leaving much of Israel feeling antsy, BOJ Governor Kuroda just stated he will continue to buy ETFs within a JPY12 trillion cap “with a close eye on markets” even after Covid is over; he won’t sell the BOJ’s stock of ETFs; and the inflation target stays at 2% (ROFL!). He also thinks that it is “natural for the government to deploy fiscal stimulus flexibly, though Japan must also maintain market trust over its medium- and long-term fiscal health.” (Will the people in the market who associate Japan with long-term fiscal health please stand up?) The BOJ will also “support various entities’ efforts towards reform as Japan faces challenges in the post-Covid world”: does he mean the local Olympic Games Committee? In short, more of the same is on offer from the BOJ – which has worked so magnificently for it so far.That’s another lesson for the US.Structural reform needs to bestructural, not just cementing over river beds – or blowing up the Negev desert.On which note, the FTSE Bond Index just announced that it is about to include Chinese government bonds (CGBs) in its world index, allowing global investors to buy both sides of the Cold War bet and all related public expenditures. But there is a sting in the tail:the FTSE CGB weighting will be just 5.25%, not the 6.5% expected, starting October 29, and this will be tapered in over 36 months, not 12 months as originally believed.A few months ago, when China was seeing too much capital flow in for its liking, that slower pace might have been welcome. Indeed, and ironically, much of the capital that went in to Chinese markets from foreign funds is believed to have been encouraged to flow straight back out again via different channels to prevent excess appreciation pressure on the currency (and note that China’s FX reserves have hardly soared). Yet CNY and CNH are starting to move markedly lower again; and genuine capital outflows are being experienced as US yields rise, even despite bumper Covid-related trade surpluses (which will fade with the virus does). Moreover,with the geopolitical backdrop this Cold, how could this most political of all FX crosses not eventually respond in kind?One wonders what the Fed (and ECB and BOJ) would make of any sustained move lower in CNY, given what it will mean for inflation; and the White House, given what it means for jobs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358807857,"gmtCreate":1616677848779,"gmtModify":1634524609162,"author":{"id":"3562916867510024","authorId":"3562916867510024","name":"ShawnLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd8f7bb778d2da2f9d3f7732c5523a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562916867510024","idStr":"3562916867510024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Big red","listText":"Big red","text":"Big 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and test save my red portfolio","listText":"like and test save my red portfolio","text":"like and test save my red portfolio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358804192","repostId":"1142620967","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358807857,"gmtCreate":1616677848779,"gmtModify":1634524609162,"author":{"id":"3562916867510024","authorId":"3562916867510024","name":"ShawnLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd8f7bb778d2da2f9d3f7732c5523a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562916867510024","authorIdStr":"3562916867510024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Big red","listText":"Big red","text":"Big red","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358807857","repostId":"1156972629","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354045712,"gmtCreate":1617114654136,"gmtModify":1634522574454,"author":{"id":"3562916867510024","authorId":"3562916867510024","name":"ShawnLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd8f7bb778d2da2f9d3f7732c5523a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562916867510024","authorIdStr":"3562916867510024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Toh","listText":"Toh","text":"Toh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354045712","repostId":"1149049776","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149049776","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617114349,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149049776?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-30 22:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Archegos? Argh, Chaos More Like<blockquote>Archegos？啊，更像是混乱</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149049776","media":"zerohedge","summary":"I noted yesterday that the expected market turbulence caused by the Archegos sell-off was not repres","content":"<p>I noted yesterday that the expected market turbulence caused by the Archegos sell-off was not representative of the underlying structural issues that will guide markets going forwards. I stick by that claim, but even so what a messy day it was. Some individual stocks got hit hard, and US bond yields were up, presumably due to the need to sell anything to get liquidity, while the USD see-sawed.<b>Archegos? ‘</b><i><b>Argh, chaos</b></i><b>’ more like.</b></p><p><blockquote>我昨天指出，Archegos抛售造成的预期市场动荡并不代表将指导市场未来发展的潜在结构性问题。我坚持这种说法，但即使如此，这也是多么混乱的一天。一些个股受到重创，美国债券收益率上升，大概是因为需要出售任何东西来获得流动性，而美元则出现拉锯。<b>阿尔切戈斯？</b><i><b>啊，混乱</b></i><b>“更像是。</b></blockquote></p><p>This overshadowed the good news that the Suez Canal is now open again. However, there is a link between the two:<b>both stories reveal how stupid the key infrastructure of the global economy and financial system still is. ‘Too big to sail and too big to fail’, as some dub the two halves of this dyad: and Joe Public can again see our system encourages entities to get so large and complex that when a simple incident happens, everything gets stuck.</b>Something surely needs to change, unless we are going to assume there can’t be any more ‘Argh, chaos’ “because markets”, or any more stuck giant ships in the Suez Canal “because boats”.</p><p><blockquote>这掩盖了苏伊士运河现在重新开放的好消息。然而，两者之间存在联系：<b>这两个故事都揭示了全球经济和金融体系的关键基础设施仍然是多么愚蠢。“太大而不能航行和太大而不能失败”，正如一些人所说的那样：乔公众可以再次看到我们的系统鼓励实体变得如此庞大和复杂，以至于当一个简单的事件发生时，一切都陷入困境。</b>有些事情肯定需要改变，除非我们假设不会有更多的“啊，混乱”“因为市场”，或者更多的巨轮被困在苏伊士运河“因为船”。</blockquote></p><p>So, change? Fed Governor Waller spoke to the Peterson Institute for International Economics yesterday, where he<b>rejected any suggestions the Fed was close to embracing the MMT</b>: he wanted to “<i>definitively put that narrative to rest. It is simply wrong</i>”. Borrowing costs are<i>not</i>being kept low to help finance the government, apparently. (<b>It’s all inflation; and unemployment; and social justice; and the climate</b>?) Clearly there won’t be any need for an Operation Twist and Shout or for Yield Curve Control then…but can we get that in writing?</p><p><blockquote>所以，改变？美联储理事沃勒昨日在彼得森国际经济研究所发表讲话，他在<b>拒绝任何有关美联储即将接受MMT的建议</b>：他想“<i>彻底结束这种说法。这是完全错误的</i>”.借款成本为<i>不</i>显然是为了帮助政府融资而保持低调。（<b>都是通货膨胀；和失业；和社会正义；还有气候</b>?)显然，那么就不需要扭曲和呼喊操作或收益率曲线控制了……但我们能把它写下来吗？</blockquote></p><p>At the same time,<b>the press reports the Biden administration is planning a</b><i><b>further</b></i><b>Covid relief bill separate from a key infrastructure bill to be launched Wednesday; and the latter is now rumored to be for as much as</b><i><b>USD4 trillion</b></i><b>, or close to 20% of GDP</b>, funded by USD3 trillion of tax hikes on businesses and the rich, the largest hike in a generation, as opposed to the original idea of USD3 trillion in spending funded by USD1 trillion of taxes.</p><p><blockquote>同时，<b>据媒体报道，拜登政府正在计划一项</b><i><b>更远地</b></i><b>Covid救济法案与将于周三推出的关键基础设施法案分开；而后者现在据传售价高达</b><i><b>4万亿美元</b></i><b>，或接近GDP的20%</b>由对企业和富人增税3万亿美元资助，这是一代人以来最大的一次增税，而最初的想法是由1万亿美元税收资助3万亿美元支出。</blockquote></p><p>If the larger stimulus package is the one put forward, it means<b>there is no sign of MMT in the White House</b>either, because the net spend of USD1 trillion (over a decade) is hardly in the money-printing category. Instead,<b>there is a</b><b><i>redistributive</i></b><b>fiscal package that presumes USD3 trillion the rich have can be spent more productively on bridges, roads, and ports</b>, etc., than on $100m condos filled with gold-dusted caviar or stock buybacks. Cue a shift of political debate from ‘MMT’ vs. ‘no MMT’ to ‘The government doesn’t know what it’s doing!’ vs. ‘The rich<i>do</i>know what they are doing – turning the US into an oligarchic kleptocracy’. And may the best lobbyists win.</p><p><blockquote>如果提出更大的刺激方案，这意味着<b>白宫没有MMT的迹象</b>或者，因为1万亿美元的净支出（超过十年）几乎不属于印钞范畴。相反，<b>有一个</b><b><i>再分配</i></b><b>假设富人拥有的3万亿美元可以更有效地用于桥梁、道路和港口的财政计划</b>等等。，而不是购买价值1亿美元的公寓，里面装满了金子鱼子酱或股票回购。暗示政治辩论从“MMT”与“没有MMT”转变为“政府不知道自己在做什么！”vs.富人<i>做</i>知道他们在做什么——把美国变成一个寡头盗贼统治。愿最好的说客获胜。</blockquote></p><p>As a linked aside, yesterday I saw 1963 US plans for an alternative to the Suez Canal, because at the time Egypt was a Soviet client state. This was to use *530* nukes to blow a 160-mile long, 1,500 foot deep channel through Israel from its Mediterranean coast to the Red Sea, which would “<i>probably contribute greatly to the economic development of the surrounding area</i>”(!) That underlines the idiocy of central planning<i>and</i>of Cold War thinking. Which is doubly worrying given any new Cold War is again very likely going to see key global infrastructure in the hands of states not aligned with US geostrategic interests, and the US is already talking about its own Belt and Road rival (as China seems to slowly back away from the economic drain of its own).<b>Beware Americans bearing nukes.</b></p><p><blockquote>作为一个相关的旁白，昨天我看到了1963年美国关于苏伊士运河替代方案的计划，因为当时埃及是苏联的附庸国。这是使用*530*核武器炸毁一条从以色列地中海海岸到红海的160英里长、1500英尺深的通道，这将“<i>可能对周边地区的经济发展有很大的贡献</i>“（！）这凸显了中央计划的愚蠢<i>和</i>冷战思维。这更加令人担忧，因为任何新的冷战都很可能再次看到关键的全球基础设施掌握在与美国地缘战略利益不一致的国家手中，而且美国已经在谈论自己的一带一路竞争对手（因为中国似乎正在慢慢远离自己的经济消耗）。<b>当心携带核武器的美国人。</b></blockquote></p><p>Yet the economic national-security Hamiltonian model, the ideas of Henry George, and the fact Eisenhower built the US inter-state highway network partially to prevent Soviet invasion from either coast, still all hold as much water as the glow-in-the-dark 160-mile long monstrosity through Israel would have.</p><p><blockquote>然而，经济国家安全的汉密尔顿模型、亨利·乔治的想法，以及艾森豪威尔建立美国州际高速公路网络部分是为了防止苏联从任何一个海岸入侵的事实，仍然与穿过以色列的160英里长的夜光怪物一样具有足够的水分。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, as the US and nukes and the Middle East make headlines for different reasons today, but still leaving much of Israel feeling antsy, BOJ Governor Kuroda just stated he will continue to buy ETFs within a JPY12 trillion cap “<i>with a close eye on markets</i>” even after Covid is over; he won’t sell the BOJ’s stock of ETFs; and the inflation target stays at 2% (ROFL!). He also thinks that it is “<i>natural for the government to deploy fiscal stimulus flexibly, though Japan must also maintain market trust over its medium- and long-term fiscal health</i>.” (Will the people in the market who associate Japan with long-term fiscal health please stand up?) The BOJ will also “<i>support various entities’ efforts towards reform as Japan faces challenges in the post-Covid world</i>”: does he mean the local Olympic Games Committee? In short, more of the same is on offer from the BOJ – which has worked so magnificently for it so far.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，由于美国、核武器和中东今天因不同原因成为头条新闻，但仍让以色列大部分人感到不安，日本央行行长黑田东彦刚刚表示，他将继续购买12万亿日元上限内的ETF。”<i>密切关注市场</i>“即使在新冠疫情结束之后；他不会出售日本央行的ETF股票；通胀目标保持在2%（ROFL！）。他还认为这是“<i>日本政府灵活部署财政刺激是很自然的，不过日本也必须保持市场对其中长期财政健康的信任</i>.“（市场上把日本与长期财政健康联系在一起的人请站起来好吗？）日本央行也将”<i>随着日本在后疫情时代面临挑战，支持各实体的改革努力</i>”：他是指当地的奥委会吗？简而言之，日本央行正在提供更多同样的服务——迄今为止，日本央行已经为其取得了巨大的成功。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>That’s another lesson for the US.<b>Structural reform needs to be</b><i><b>structural</b></i>, not just cementing over river beds – or blowing up the Negev desert.</p><p><blockquote>这对美国来说是另一个教训。<b>结构性改革需要</b><i><b>结构上的</b></i>不仅仅是在河床上水泥——或者炸毁内盖夫沙漠。</blockquote></p><p>On which note, the FTSE Bond Index just announced that it is about to include Chinese government bonds (CGBs) in its world index, allowing global investors to buy both sides of the Cold War bet and all related public expenditures. But there is a sting in the tail:<b>the FTSE CGB weighting will be just 5.25%, not the 6.5% expected, starting October 29, and this will be tapered in over 36 months, not 12 months as originally believed</b>.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，富时债券指数刚刚宣布，即将将中国政府债券（CGB）纳入其世界指数，允许全球投资者购买冷战赌注的双方以及所有相关的公共支出。但尾巴上有一个刺：<b>从10月29日开始，富时广发银行的权重将仅为5.25%，而不是预期的6.5%，并且这一权重将在36个月内逐渐减少，而不是最初认为的12个月</b>.</blockquote></p><p>A few months ago, when China was seeing too much capital flow in for its liking, that slower pace might have been welcome. Indeed, and ironically, much of the capital that went in to Chinese markets from foreign funds is believed to have been encouraged to flow straight back out again via different channels to prevent excess appreciation pressure on the currency (and note that China’s FX reserves have hardly soared). Yet CNY and CNH are starting to move markedly lower again; and genuine capital outflows are being experienced as US yields rise, even despite bumper Covid-related trade surpluses (which will fade with the virus does). Moreover,<b>with the geopolitical backdrop this Cold, how could this most political of all FX crosses not eventually respond in kind?</b></p><p><blockquote>几个月前，当中国看到过多的资本流入时，放慢速度可能会受到欢迎。事实上，具有讽刺意味的是，从外国基金进入中国市场的大部分资本被鼓励通过不同渠道再次直接流出，以防止人民币面临过度升值压力（请注意，中国的外汇储备几乎没有飙升）。然而，CNY和CNH又开始明显走低；随着美国收益率上升，真正的资本外流正在经历，尽管与新冠病毒相关的贸易顺差很大（这种顺差会随着病毒而消退）。而且，<b>在如此寒冷的地缘政治背景下，这种最具政治性的外汇交叉货币最终怎么可能不做出同样的回应呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>One wonders what the Fed (and ECB and BOJ) would make of any sustained move lower in CNY, given what it will mean for inflation; and the White House, given what it means for jobs.</p><p><blockquote>人们想知道美联储（以及欧洲央行和日本央行）会如何看待人民币持续走低，因为这对通胀意味着什么；还有白宫，考虑到这对就业的意义。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Archegos? Argh, Chaos More Like<blockquote>Archegos？啊，更像是混乱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nArchegos? Argh, Chaos More Like<blockquote>Archegos？啊，更像是混乱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-30 22:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I noted yesterday that the expected market turbulence caused by the Archegos sell-off was not representative of the underlying structural issues that will guide markets going forwards. I stick by that claim, but even so what a messy day it was. Some individual stocks got hit hard, and US bond yields were up, presumably due to the need to sell anything to get liquidity, while the USD see-sawed.<b>Archegos? ‘</b><i><b>Argh, chaos</b></i><b>’ more like.</b></p><p><blockquote>我昨天指出，Archegos抛售造成的预期市场动荡并不代表将指导市场未来发展的潜在结构性问题。我坚持这种说法，但即使如此，这也是多么混乱的一天。一些个股受到重创，美国债券收益率上升，大概是因为需要出售任何东西来获得流动性，而美元则出现拉锯。<b>阿尔切戈斯？</b><i><b>啊，混乱</b></i><b>“更像是。</b></blockquote></p><p>This overshadowed the good news that the Suez Canal is now open again. However, there is a link between the two:<b>both stories reveal how stupid the key infrastructure of the global economy and financial system still is. ‘Too big to sail and too big to fail’, as some dub the two halves of this dyad: and Joe Public can again see our system encourages entities to get so large and complex that when a simple incident happens, everything gets stuck.</b>Something surely needs to change, unless we are going to assume there can’t be any more ‘Argh, chaos’ “because markets”, or any more stuck giant ships in the Suez Canal “because boats”.</p><p><blockquote>这掩盖了苏伊士运河现在重新开放的好消息。然而，两者之间存在联系：<b>这两个故事都揭示了全球经济和金融体系的关键基础设施仍然是多么愚蠢。“太大而不能航行和太大而不能失败”，正如一些人所说的那样：乔公众可以再次看到我们的系统鼓励实体变得如此庞大和复杂，以至于当一个简单的事件发生时，一切都陷入困境。</b>有些事情肯定需要改变，除非我们假设不会有更多的“啊，混乱”“因为市场”，或者更多的巨轮被困在苏伊士运河“因为船”。</blockquote></p><p>So, change? Fed Governor Waller spoke to the Peterson Institute for International Economics yesterday, where he<b>rejected any suggestions the Fed was close to embracing the MMT</b>: he wanted to “<i>definitively put that narrative to rest. It is simply wrong</i>”. Borrowing costs are<i>not</i>being kept low to help finance the government, apparently. (<b>It’s all inflation; and unemployment; and social justice; and the climate</b>?) Clearly there won’t be any need for an Operation Twist and Shout or for Yield Curve Control then…but can we get that in writing?</p><p><blockquote>所以，改变？美联储理事沃勒昨日在彼得森国际经济研究所发表讲话，他在<b>拒绝任何有关美联储即将接受MMT的建议</b>：他想“<i>彻底结束这种说法。这是完全错误的</i>”.借款成本为<i>不</i>显然是为了帮助政府融资而保持低调。（<b>都是通货膨胀；和失业；和社会正义；还有气候</b>?)显然，那么就不需要扭曲和呼喊操作或收益率曲线控制了……但我们能把它写下来吗？</blockquote></p><p>At the same time,<b>the press reports the Biden administration is planning a</b><i><b>further</b></i><b>Covid relief bill separate from a key infrastructure bill to be launched Wednesday; and the latter is now rumored to be for as much as</b><i><b>USD4 trillion</b></i><b>, or close to 20% of GDP</b>, funded by USD3 trillion of tax hikes on businesses and the rich, the largest hike in a generation, as opposed to the original idea of USD3 trillion in spending funded by USD1 trillion of taxes.</p><p><blockquote>同时，<b>据媒体报道，拜登政府正在计划一项</b><i><b>更远地</b></i><b>Covid救济法案与将于周三推出的关键基础设施法案分开；而后者现在据传售价高达</b><i><b>4万亿美元</b></i><b>，或接近GDP的20%</b>由对企业和富人增税3万亿美元资助，这是一代人以来最大的一次增税，而最初的想法是由1万亿美元税收资助3万亿美元支出。</blockquote></p><p>If the larger stimulus package is the one put forward, it means<b>there is no sign of MMT in the White House</b>either, because the net spend of USD1 trillion (over a decade) is hardly in the money-printing category. Instead,<b>there is a</b><b><i>redistributive</i></b><b>fiscal package that presumes USD3 trillion the rich have can be spent more productively on bridges, roads, and ports</b>, etc., than on $100m condos filled with gold-dusted caviar or stock buybacks. Cue a shift of political debate from ‘MMT’ vs. ‘no MMT’ to ‘The government doesn’t know what it’s doing!’ vs. ‘The rich<i>do</i>know what they are doing – turning the US into an oligarchic kleptocracy’. And may the best lobbyists win.</p><p><blockquote>如果提出更大的刺激方案，这意味着<b>白宫没有MMT的迹象</b>或者，因为1万亿美元的净支出（超过十年）几乎不属于印钞范畴。相反，<b>有一个</b><b><i>再分配</i></b><b>假设富人拥有的3万亿美元可以更有效地用于桥梁、道路和港口的财政计划</b>等等。，而不是购买价值1亿美元的公寓，里面装满了金子鱼子酱或股票回购。暗示政治辩论从“MMT”与“没有MMT”转变为“政府不知道自己在做什么！”vs.富人<i>做</i>知道他们在做什么——把美国变成一个寡头盗贼统治。愿最好的说客获胜。</blockquote></p><p>As a linked aside, yesterday I saw 1963 US plans for an alternative to the Suez Canal, because at the time Egypt was a Soviet client state. This was to use *530* nukes to blow a 160-mile long, 1,500 foot deep channel through Israel from its Mediterranean coast to the Red Sea, which would “<i>probably contribute greatly to the economic development of the surrounding area</i>”(!) That underlines the idiocy of central planning<i>and</i>of Cold War thinking. Which is doubly worrying given any new Cold War is again very likely going to see key global infrastructure in the hands of states not aligned with US geostrategic interests, and the US is already talking about its own Belt and Road rival (as China seems to slowly back away from the economic drain of its own).<b>Beware Americans bearing nukes.</b></p><p><blockquote>作为一个相关的旁白，昨天我看到了1963年美国关于苏伊士运河替代方案的计划，因为当时埃及是苏联的附庸国。这是使用*530*核武器炸毁一条从以色列地中海海岸到红海的160英里长、1500英尺深的通道，这将“<i>可能对周边地区的经济发展有很大的贡献</i>“（！）这凸显了中央计划的愚蠢<i>和</i>冷战思维。这更加令人担忧，因为任何新的冷战都很可能再次看到关键的全球基础设施掌握在与美国地缘战略利益不一致的国家手中，而且美国已经在谈论自己的一带一路竞争对手（因为中国似乎正在慢慢远离自己的经济消耗）。<b>当心携带核武器的美国人。</b></blockquote></p><p>Yet the economic national-security Hamiltonian model, the ideas of Henry George, and the fact Eisenhower built the US inter-state highway network partially to prevent Soviet invasion from either coast, still all hold as much water as the glow-in-the-dark 160-mile long monstrosity through Israel would have.</p><p><blockquote>然而，经济国家安全的汉密尔顿模型、亨利·乔治的想法，以及艾森豪威尔建立美国州际高速公路网络部分是为了防止苏联从任何一个海岸入侵的事实，仍然与穿过以色列的160英里长的夜光怪物一样具有足够的水分。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, as the US and nukes and the Middle East make headlines for different reasons today, but still leaving much of Israel feeling antsy, BOJ Governor Kuroda just stated he will continue to buy ETFs within a JPY12 trillion cap “<i>with a close eye on markets</i>” even after Covid is over; he won’t sell the BOJ’s stock of ETFs; and the inflation target stays at 2% (ROFL!). He also thinks that it is “<i>natural for the government to deploy fiscal stimulus flexibly, though Japan must also maintain market trust over its medium- and long-term fiscal health</i>.” (Will the people in the market who associate Japan with long-term fiscal health please stand up?) The BOJ will also “<i>support various entities’ efforts towards reform as Japan faces challenges in the post-Covid world</i>”: does he mean the local Olympic Games Committee? In short, more of the same is on offer from the BOJ – which has worked so magnificently for it so far.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，由于美国、核武器和中东今天因不同原因成为头条新闻，但仍让以色列大部分人感到不安，日本央行行长黑田东彦刚刚表示，他将继续购买12万亿日元上限内的ETF。”<i>密切关注市场</i>“即使在新冠疫情结束之后；他不会出售日本央行的ETF股票；通胀目标保持在2%（ROFL！）。他还认为这是“<i>日本政府灵活部署财政刺激是很自然的，不过日本也必须保持市场对其中长期财政健康的信任</i>.“（市场上把日本与长期财政健康联系在一起的人请站起来好吗？）日本央行也将”<i>随着日本在后疫情时代面临挑战，支持各实体的改革努力</i>”：他是指当地的奥委会吗？简而言之，日本央行正在提供更多同样的服务——迄今为止，日本央行已经为其取得了巨大的成功。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>That’s another lesson for the US.<b>Structural reform needs to be</b><i><b>structural</b></i>, not just cementing over river beds – or blowing up the Negev desert.</p><p><blockquote>这对美国来说是另一个教训。<b>结构性改革需要</b><i><b>结构上的</b></i>不仅仅是在河床上水泥——或者炸毁内盖夫沙漠。</blockquote></p><p>On which note, the FTSE Bond Index just announced that it is about to include Chinese government bonds (CGBs) in its world index, allowing global investors to buy both sides of the Cold War bet and all related public expenditures. But there is a sting in the tail:<b>the FTSE CGB weighting will be just 5.25%, not the 6.5% expected, starting October 29, and this will be tapered in over 36 months, not 12 months as originally believed</b>.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，富时债券指数刚刚宣布，即将将中国政府债券（CGB）纳入其世界指数，允许全球投资者购买冷战赌注的双方以及所有相关的公共支出。但尾巴上有一个刺：<b>从10月29日开始，富时广发银行的权重将仅为5.25%，而不是预期的6.5%，并且这一权重将在36个月内逐渐减少，而不是最初认为的12个月</b>.</blockquote></p><p>A few months ago, when China was seeing too much capital flow in for its liking, that slower pace might have been welcome. Indeed, and ironically, much of the capital that went in to Chinese markets from foreign funds is believed to have been encouraged to flow straight back out again via different channels to prevent excess appreciation pressure on the currency (and note that China’s FX reserves have hardly soared). Yet CNY and CNH are starting to move markedly lower again; and genuine capital outflows are being experienced as US yields rise, even despite bumper Covid-related trade surpluses (which will fade with the virus does). Moreover,<b>with the geopolitical backdrop this Cold, how could this most political of all FX crosses not eventually respond in kind?</b></p><p><blockquote>几个月前，当中国看到过多的资本流入时，放慢速度可能会受到欢迎。事实上，具有讽刺意味的是，从外国基金进入中国市场的大部分资本被鼓励通过不同渠道再次直接流出，以防止人民币面临过度升值压力（请注意，中国的外汇储备几乎没有飙升）。然而，CNY和CNH又开始明显走低；随着美国收益率上升，真正的资本外流正在经历，尽管与新冠病毒相关的贸易顺差很大（这种顺差会随着病毒而消退）。而且，<b>在如此寒冷的地缘政治背景下，这种最具政治性的外汇交叉货币最终怎么可能不做出同样的回应呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>One wonders what the Fed (and ECB and BOJ) would make of any sustained move lower in CNY, given what it will mean for inflation; and the White House, given what it means for jobs.</p><p><blockquote>人们想知道美联储（以及欧洲央行和日本央行）会如何看待人民币持续走低，因为这对通胀意味着什么；还有白宫，考虑到这对就业的意义。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/archegos-argh-chaos-more?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487980eafa9a1c606a77e47e87065651","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/archegos-argh-chaos-more?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149049776","content_text":"I noted yesterday that the expected market turbulence caused by the Archegos sell-off was not representative of the underlying structural issues that will guide markets going forwards. I stick by that claim, but even so what a messy day it was. Some individual stocks got hit hard, and US bond yields were up, presumably due to the need to sell anything to get liquidity, while the USD see-sawed.Archegos? ‘Argh, chaos’ more like.This overshadowed the good news that the Suez Canal is now open again. However, there is a link between the two:both stories reveal how stupid the key infrastructure of the global economy and financial system still is. ‘Too big to sail and too big to fail’, as some dub the two halves of this dyad: and Joe Public can again see our system encourages entities to get so large and complex that when a simple incident happens, everything gets stuck.Something surely needs to change, unless we are going to assume there can’t be any more ‘Argh, chaos’ “because markets”, or any more stuck giant ships in the Suez Canal “because boats”.So, change? Fed Governor Waller spoke to the Peterson Institute for International Economics yesterday, where herejected any suggestions the Fed was close to embracing the MMT: he wanted to “definitively put that narrative to rest. It is simply wrong”. Borrowing costs arenotbeing kept low to help finance the government, apparently. (It’s all inflation; and unemployment; and social justice; and the climate?) Clearly there won’t be any need for an Operation Twist and Shout or for Yield Curve Control then…but can we get that in writing?At the same time,the press reports the Biden administration is planning afurtherCovid relief bill separate from a key infrastructure bill to be launched Wednesday; and the latter is now rumored to be for as much asUSD4 trillion, or close to 20% of GDP, funded by USD3 trillion of tax hikes on businesses and the rich, the largest hike in a generation, as opposed to the original idea of USD3 trillion in spending funded by USD1 trillion of taxes.If the larger stimulus package is the one put forward, it meansthere is no sign of MMT in the White Houseeither, because the net spend of USD1 trillion (over a decade) is hardly in the money-printing category. Instead,there is aredistributivefiscal package that presumes USD3 trillion the rich have can be spent more productively on bridges, roads, and ports, etc., than on $100m condos filled with gold-dusted caviar or stock buybacks. Cue a shift of political debate from ‘MMT’ vs. ‘no MMT’ to ‘The government doesn’t know what it’s doing!’ vs. ‘The richdoknow what they are doing – turning the US into an oligarchic kleptocracy’. And may the best lobbyists win.As a linked aside, yesterday I saw 1963 US plans for an alternative to the Suez Canal, because at the time Egypt was a Soviet client state. This was to use *530* nukes to blow a 160-mile long, 1,500 foot deep channel through Israel from its Mediterranean coast to the Red Sea, which would “probably contribute greatly to the economic development of the surrounding area”(!) That underlines the idiocy of central planningandof Cold War thinking. Which is doubly worrying given any new Cold War is again very likely going to see key global infrastructure in the hands of states not aligned with US geostrategic interests, and the US is already talking about its own Belt and Road rival (as China seems to slowly back away from the economic drain of its own).Beware Americans bearing nukes.Yet the economic national-security Hamiltonian model, the ideas of Henry George, and the fact Eisenhower built the US inter-state highway network partially to prevent Soviet invasion from either coast, still all hold as much water as the glow-in-the-dark 160-mile long monstrosity through Israel would have.Meanwhile, as the US and nukes and the Middle East make headlines for different reasons today, but still leaving much of Israel feeling antsy, BOJ Governor Kuroda just stated he will continue to buy ETFs within a JPY12 trillion cap “with a close eye on markets” even after Covid is over; he won’t sell the BOJ’s stock of ETFs; and the inflation target stays at 2% (ROFL!). He also thinks that it is “natural for the government to deploy fiscal stimulus flexibly, though Japan must also maintain market trust over its medium- and long-term fiscal health.” (Will the people in the market who associate Japan with long-term fiscal health please stand up?) The BOJ will also “support various entities’ efforts towards reform as Japan faces challenges in the post-Covid world”: does he mean the local Olympic Games Committee? In short, more of the same is on offer from the BOJ – which has worked so magnificently for it so far.That’s another lesson for the US.Structural reform needs to bestructural, not just cementing over river beds – or blowing up the Negev desert.On which note, the FTSE Bond Index just announced that it is about to include Chinese government bonds (CGBs) in its world index, allowing global investors to buy both sides of the Cold War bet and all related public expenditures. But there is a sting in the tail:the FTSE CGB weighting will be just 5.25%, not the 6.5% expected, starting October 29, and this will be tapered in over 36 months, not 12 months as originally believed.A few months ago, when China was seeing too much capital flow in for its liking, that slower pace might have been welcome. Indeed, and ironically, much of the capital that went in to Chinese markets from foreign funds is believed to have been encouraged to flow straight back out again via different channels to prevent excess appreciation pressure on the currency (and note that China’s FX reserves have hardly soared). Yet CNY and CNH are starting to move markedly lower again; and genuine capital outflows are being experienced as US yields rise, even despite bumper Covid-related trade surpluses (which will fade with the virus does). Moreover,with the geopolitical backdrop this Cold, how could this most political of all FX crosses not eventually respond in kind?One wonders what the Fed (and ECB and BOJ) would make of any sustained move lower in CNY, given what it will mean for inflation; and the White House, given what it means for jobs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354044980,"gmtCreate":1617114678340,"gmtModify":1634522574334,"author":{"id":"3562916867510024","authorId":"3562916867510024","name":"ShawnLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd8f7bb778d2da2f9d3f7732c5523a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562916867510024","authorIdStr":"3562916867510024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hm","listText":"Hm","text":"Hm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354044980","repostId":"1185065950","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328905219,"gmtCreate":1615477360331,"gmtModify":1703489748291,"author":{"id":"3562916867510024","authorId":"3562916867510024","name":"ShawnLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd8f7bb778d2da2f9d3f7732c5523a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562916867510024","authorIdStr":"3562916867510024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Test","listText":"Test","text":"Test","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328905219","repostId":"1119544264","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328904146,"gmtCreate":1615477384885,"gmtModify":1703489748983,"author":{"id":"3562916867510024","authorId":"3562916867510024","name":"ShawnLing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd8f7bb778d2da2f9d3f7732c5523a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562916867510024","authorIdStr":"3562916867510024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Test","listText":"Test","text":"Test","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328904146","repostId":"2118984296","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
