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2021-04-05

😱😱😱

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2021-04-04

👍🏻

Will U.S. Airlines' Expansion Spree Boost Summer Trips?<blockquote>美国航空公司的扩张热潮会促进夏季旅行吗？</blockquote>

2021-04-03

not stonks 📉📉📉

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-04-01

gd read 👍🏻

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2021-03-26

👍🏻

A Look At GameStop Stock Technicals As It Makes A Comeback<blockquote>游戏驿站股票卷土重来之际的技术面一览</blockquote>

2021-03-24

👍🏻👍🏻

Is This Little-Watched Stock Market Niche Signaling a Crash Ahead?<blockquote>这个鲜为人知的股市利基市场是否预示着未来的崩盘？</blockquote>

2021-03-20

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With the gradual reopening of the economy, economic activities are picking up. The upbeat reading on U.S. consumer optimism in March highlights this improving scenario. On Mar 30, 2021, the Conference Board reported that Consumer Confidence in March jumped to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-year high of 109.7 from the downwardly revised 90.4 in February.</p><p><blockquote>在受到冠状病毒导致的航空旅行需求下降的破坏后，美国航空公司今年的情况正在好转。随着经济逐步重启，经济活动正在回暖。3月份美国消费者乐观情绪的乐观数据凸显了这种改善的情况。2021年3月30日，大会董事会报告称，3月份消费者信心跃升至<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>-从2月份向下修正的90.4升至109.7的年度高点。</blockquote></p><p>The above buoyant scenario naturally translated into increased air-travel demand. The increasing number of people getting vaccinated by the day also bodes well. Highlighting this rosy scenario, the NYSE ARCA Airline Index has gained a massive 106.6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>上述繁荣景象自然转化为航空旅行需求的增加。越来越多的人接种疫苗也是一个好兆头。纽约证券交易所ARCA航空指数今年迄今已大幅上涨106.6%，突显了这种乐观的前景。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Improved Bookings Boost Airlines</h3>With air-travel demand gradually bettering in the United States (particularly on the leisure front), U.S. carriers unfurled bullish projections. Evidently, <b>American</b> <b>Airlines</b>’ AAL management stated that bookings (with respect to the domestic markets and short-haul international flights) recently improved. Reflective of this uptick, the seven-day moving average as of Mar 26 regarding the net bookings at the currently Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) American Airlines was roughly 90% of the level recorded in 2019. Moreover, the reading related to domestic load factor (% of seats filled by passengers) was nearly 80% in the period, further mirroring the recovery in air-travel demand.</p><p><blockquote><h3>预订量的增加提振了航空公司</h3>随着美国航空旅行需求逐渐改善（特别是在休闲方面），美国航空公司展现了乐观的预测。显然，<b>美国的</b><b>航空公司</b>AAL管理层表示，预订量（国内市场和短途国际航班）最近有所改善。反映这种上升的是，截至3月26日，目前咤克斯排名第三（持有）的美国航空公司的净预订量的七天移动平均值约为2019年记录水平的90%。此外，期内与国内客座率（乘客座位百分比）相关的读数接近80%，进一步反映了航空旅行需求的复苏。</blockquote></p><p>You can see<b>&nbsp;the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here</b>.</p><p><blockquote>你可以看到<b>今天Zacks排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表在这里</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Highlighting the uptrend in booking trends, management of this Fort Worth, TX based carrier stated that it now expects system capacity (measured in available seat miles) for the March quarter to decline nearly in the 40-45% band from the levels achieved in first-quarter 2019. Earlier, the expectation was a decline of 45% for capacity from the first-quarter 2019 reading.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于德克萨斯州沃思堡的航空公司的管理层强调了预订趋势的上升趋势，表示目前预计3月份季度的系统容量（以可用座位里程衡量）将比2019年第一季度的水平下降近40-45%。此前，预计产能较2019年第一季度下降45%。</blockquote></p><p>American Airlines apart, other U.S. airline heavyweights like <b>United Airlines</b> UAL and <b>Southwest Airlines</b> LUV provided bright projections for the March quarter of 2021. Per Ankit Gupta, vice president of United Airlines’ domestic network planning and scheduling, the airline has seen the “strongest flight bookings since the start of the pandemic” over the past few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>除美国航空外，其他美国航空巨头如<b>联合航空公司</b>UAL和<b>西南航空</b>LUV对2021年3月季度提供了光明的预测。联合航空国内网络规划和调度副总裁安基特·古普塔(Ankit Gupta)表示，过去几周，该航空公司出现了“自疫情开始以来最强劲的航班预订量”。</blockquote></p><p>That Americans are slowly taking to the skies again is reflected in the surging number of passengers screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at airports. Notably, more than 1 million passengers passed through the TSA checkpoints each day in the Mar 11-Mar 31 time frame.</p><p><blockquote>美国人正在慢慢地再次飞上天空，这反映在运输安全管理局(TSA)在机场安检的乘客数量激增上。值得注意的是，在3月11日至3月31日期间，每天有超过100万乘客通过TSA检查站。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Airlines Announce Route Expansion</h3>Driven by the upbeat air-travel demand, traffic is likely to be high during the Memorial Day. Moreover, the upcoming summer season is likely to be a busy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> for the U.S. airlines, assuming that the current rebound in air-travel demand stays on.</p><p><blockquote><h3>航空公司宣布航线扩张</h3>在乐观的航空旅行需求的推动下，阵亡将士纪念日期间的客流量可能会很高。此外，即将到来的夏季很可能是一个繁忙的季节<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>对于美国航空公司来说，假设目前航空旅行需求的反弹持续下去。</blockquote></p><p>Evidently, the likes of United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, <b>Delta Air Lines</b> DAL, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVE\">Spirit Airlines</a></b> SAVE and <b>Alaska Air Group</b>’s ALK subsidiary Alaska Airlines recently announced intentions to boost their respective domestic networks to meet the anticipated demand swell in the hotter months.</p><p><blockquote>显然，像联合航空，西南航空，<b>达美航空</b>从，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVE\">精神航空公司</a></b>保存和<b>阿拉斯加航空集团</b>ALK子公司阿拉斯加航空最近宣布打算加强各自的国内网络，以满足炎热月份预期的需求激增。</blockquote></p><p>For example, Southwest Airlines aims to initiate services to Myrtle Beach International Airport on May 23. Integral to this expansion boost to the popular vacation attraction in South Carolina, the airline intends to begin operating 10 nonstop routes from the city. Similarly, United Airlines plans to resume more than 20 domestic services this summer and operate more than 100% of its 2019 schedule to Latin America. The carrier expects its overall schedule to be 52% in May 2021 compared with the 2019 levels. This is a significant improvement from the May 2020 tally when the airline operated only 14% of its 2019 schedule.</p><p><blockquote>例如，西南航空公司计划于5月23日开通飞往默特尔比奇国际机场的服务。作为南卡罗来纳州热门度假景点扩张的一部分，该航空公司打算开始运营10条从该市出发的直飞航线。同样，联合航空公司计划在今年夏天恢复20多项国内服务，并运营超过100%的2019年飞往拉丁美洲的航班。该航空公司预计，与2019年的水平相比，2021年5月的整体时间表将达到52%。这与2020年5月的记录相比有了显着改善，当时该航空公司仅运营了2019年航班的14%。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, Delta aims to add nine routes during summer. The nine new routes include those that will be added to the tourist-friendly destinations like Bozeman, Montana and Jackson Hole. Incidentally, Delta already operates several flights to Bozeman but to address the anticipated demand hike in summer, the carrier is broadening its base. In addition, this Atlanta-based carrier aims to extend its operations to more than 20 hubs.</p><p><blockquote>此外，达美航空计划在夏季增加9条航线。这九条新路线包括那些将被添加到旅游友好目的地的路线，如波兹曼、蒙大拿州和杰克逊霍尔。顺便说一句，达美航空已经运营了几个飞往波兹曼的航班，但为了应对夏季预期的需求增长，该航空公司正在扩大其基地。此外，这家总部位于亚特兰大的航空公司的目标是将其业务扩展到20多个枢纽。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Wrapping Up</h3>Airlines will be hoping that the current air-travel demand continues to result in huge air traffic during summer, driven by the significant pent-up demand. This also explains their decisions to widen their domestic networks during the hot season by adding routes to facilitate travel to favorite tourist spots.</p><p><blockquote><h3>包装</h3>航空公司希望，在大量被压抑的需求的推动下，当前的航空旅行需求将继续导致夏季的巨大空中交通。这也解释了他们决定在炎热季节通过增加路线来扩大国内网络，以方便前往最喜欢的旅游景点。</blockquote></p><p>However, the sole concern is the recent spike in coronavirus cases in the United States, which might dampen the demand uptick. Health officials in the country urged people to take necessary precautions to prevent another wave.</p><p><blockquote>然而，唯一令人担忧的是美国最近冠状病毒病例激增，这可能会抑制需求的增长。该国卫生官员敦促人们采取必要的预防措施，以防止另一波浪潮。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Watch this space for further updates on the issue and also wait to see if the current surge in air-travel demand is sustainable or not.</p><p><blockquote>请关注此空间，了解有关该问题的进一步更新，并等待看看当前航空旅行需求的激增是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will U.S. Airlines' Expansion Spree Boost Summer Trips?<blockquote>美国航空公司的扩张热潮会促进夏季旅行吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill U.S. Airlines' Expansion Spree Boost Summer Trips?<blockquote>美国航空公司的扩张热潮会促进夏季旅行吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Zacks</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 17:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After being ravaged by the coronavirus-led declining demand for air travel, things are looking up for the U.S. airlines this year. With the gradual reopening of the economy, economic activities are picking up. The upbeat reading on U.S. consumer optimism in March highlights this improving scenario. On Mar 30, 2021, the Conference Board reported that Consumer Confidence in March jumped to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-year high of 109.7 from the downwardly revised 90.4 in February.</p><p><blockquote>在受到冠状病毒导致的航空旅行需求下降的破坏后，美国航空公司今年的情况正在好转。随着经济逐步重启，经济活动正在回暖。3月份美国消费者乐观情绪的乐观数据凸显了这种改善的情况。2021年3月30日，大会董事会报告称，3月份消费者信心跃升至<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>-从2月份向下修正的90.4升至109.7的年度高点。</blockquote></p><p>The above buoyant scenario naturally translated into increased air-travel demand. The increasing number of people getting vaccinated by the day also bodes well. Highlighting this rosy scenario, the NYSE ARCA Airline Index has gained a massive 106.6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>上述繁荣景象自然转化为航空旅行需求的增加。越来越多的人接种疫苗也是一个好兆头。纽约证券交易所ARCA航空指数今年迄今已大幅上涨106.6%，突显了这种乐观的前景。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Improved Bookings Boost Airlines</h3>With air-travel demand gradually bettering in the United States (particularly on the leisure front), U.S. carriers unfurled bullish projections. Evidently, <b>American</b> <b>Airlines</b>’ AAL management stated that bookings (with respect to the domestic markets and short-haul international flights) recently improved. Reflective of this uptick, the seven-day moving average as of Mar 26 regarding the net bookings at the currently Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) American Airlines was roughly 90% of the level recorded in 2019. Moreover, the reading related to domestic load factor (% of seats filled by passengers) was nearly 80% in the period, further mirroring the recovery in air-travel demand.</p><p><blockquote><h3>预订量的增加提振了航空公司</h3>随着美国航空旅行需求逐渐改善（特别是在休闲方面），美国航空公司展现了乐观的预测。显然，<b>美国的</b><b>航空公司</b>AAL管理层表示，预订量（国内市场和短途国际航班）最近有所改善。反映这种上升的是，截至3月26日，目前咤克斯排名第三（持有）的美国航空公司的净预订量的七天移动平均值约为2019年记录水平的90%。此外，期内与国内客座率（乘客座位百分比）相关的读数接近80%，进一步反映了航空旅行需求的复苏。</blockquote></p><p>You can see<b>&nbsp;the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here</b>.</p><p><blockquote>你可以看到<b>今天Zacks排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表在这里</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Highlighting the uptrend in booking trends, management of this Fort Worth, TX based carrier stated that it now expects system capacity (measured in available seat miles) for the March quarter to decline nearly in the 40-45% band from the levels achieved in first-quarter 2019. Earlier, the expectation was a decline of 45% for capacity from the first-quarter 2019 reading.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于德克萨斯州沃思堡的航空公司的管理层强调了预订趋势的上升趋势，表示目前预计3月份季度的系统容量（以可用座位里程衡量）将比2019年第一季度的水平下降近40-45%。此前，预计产能较2019年第一季度下降45%。</blockquote></p><p>American Airlines apart, other U.S. airline heavyweights like <b>United Airlines</b> UAL and <b>Southwest Airlines</b> LUV provided bright projections for the March quarter of 2021. Per Ankit Gupta, vice president of United Airlines’ domestic network planning and scheduling, the airline has seen the “strongest flight bookings since the start of the pandemic” over the past few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>除美国航空外，其他美国航空巨头如<b>联合航空公司</b>UAL和<b>西南航空</b>LUV对2021年3月季度提供了光明的预测。联合航空国内网络规划和调度副总裁安基特·古普塔(Ankit Gupta)表示，过去几周，该航空公司出现了“自疫情开始以来最强劲的航班预订量”。</blockquote></p><p>That Americans are slowly taking to the skies again is reflected in the surging number of passengers screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at airports. Notably, more than 1 million passengers passed through the TSA checkpoints each day in the Mar 11-Mar 31 time frame.</p><p><blockquote>美国人正在慢慢地再次飞上天空，这反映在运输安全管理局(TSA)在机场安检的乘客数量激增上。值得注意的是，在3月11日至3月31日期间，每天有超过100万乘客通过TSA检查站。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Airlines Announce Route Expansion</h3>Driven by the upbeat air-travel demand, traffic is likely to be high during the Memorial Day. Moreover, the upcoming summer season is likely to be a busy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> for the U.S. airlines, assuming that the current rebound in air-travel demand stays on.</p><p><blockquote><h3>航空公司宣布航线扩张</h3>在乐观的航空旅行需求的推动下，阵亡将士纪念日期间的客流量可能会很高。此外，即将到来的夏季很可能是一个繁忙的季节<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>对于美国航空公司来说，假设目前航空旅行需求的反弹持续下去。</blockquote></p><p>Evidently, the likes of United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, <b>Delta Air Lines</b> DAL, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVE\">Spirit Airlines</a></b> SAVE and <b>Alaska Air Group</b>’s ALK subsidiary Alaska Airlines recently announced intentions to boost their respective domestic networks to meet the anticipated demand swell in the hotter months.</p><p><blockquote>显然，像联合航空，西南航空，<b>达美航空</b>从，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVE\">精神航空公司</a></b>保存和<b>阿拉斯加航空集团</b>ALK子公司阿拉斯加航空最近宣布打算加强各自的国内网络，以满足炎热月份预期的需求激增。</blockquote></p><p>For example, Southwest Airlines aims to initiate services to Myrtle Beach International Airport on May 23. Integral to this expansion boost to the popular vacation attraction in South Carolina, the airline intends to begin operating 10 nonstop routes from the city. Similarly, United Airlines plans to resume more than 20 domestic services this summer and operate more than 100% of its 2019 schedule to Latin America. The carrier expects its overall schedule to be 52% in May 2021 compared with the 2019 levels. This is a significant improvement from the May 2020 tally when the airline operated only 14% of its 2019 schedule.</p><p><blockquote>例如，西南航空公司计划于5月23日开通飞往默特尔比奇国际机场的服务。作为南卡罗来纳州热门度假景点扩张的一部分，该航空公司打算开始运营10条从该市出发的直飞航线。同样，联合航空公司计划在今年夏天恢复20多项国内服务，并运营超过100%的2019年飞往拉丁美洲的航班。该航空公司预计，与2019年的水平相比，2021年5月的整体时间表将达到52%。这与2020年5月的记录相比有了显着改善，当时该航空公司仅运营了2019年航班的14%。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, Delta aims to add nine routes during summer. The nine new routes include those that will be added to the tourist-friendly destinations like Bozeman, Montana and Jackson Hole. Incidentally, Delta already operates several flights to Bozeman but to address the anticipated demand hike in summer, the carrier is broadening its base. In addition, this Atlanta-based carrier aims to extend its operations to more than 20 hubs.</p><p><blockquote>此外，达美航空计划在夏季增加9条航线。这九条新路线包括那些将被添加到旅游友好目的地的路线，如波兹曼、蒙大拿州和杰克逊霍尔。顺便说一句，达美航空已经运营了几个飞往波兹曼的航班，但为了应对夏季预期的需求增长，该航空公司正在扩大其基地。此外，这家总部位于亚特兰大的航空公司的目标是将其业务扩展到20多个枢纽。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Wrapping Up</h3>Airlines will be hoping that the current air-travel demand continues to result in huge air traffic during summer, driven by the significant pent-up demand. This also explains their decisions to widen their domestic networks during the hot season by adding routes to facilitate travel to favorite tourist spots.</p><p><blockquote><h3>包装</h3>航空公司希望，在大量被压抑的需求的推动下，当前的航空旅行需求将继续导致夏季的巨大空中交通。这也解释了他们决定在炎热季节通过增加路线来扩大国内网络，以方便前往最喜欢的旅游景点。</blockquote></p><p>However, the sole concern is the recent spike in coronavirus cases in the United States, which might dampen the demand uptick. Health officials in the country urged people to take necessary precautions to prevent another wave.</p><p><blockquote>然而，唯一令人担忧的是美国最近冠状病毒病例激增，这可能会抑制需求的增长。该国卫生官员敦促人们采取必要的预防措施，以防止另一波浪潮。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Watch this space for further updates on the issue and also wait to see if the current surge in air-travel demand is sustainable or not.</p><p><blockquote>请关注此空间，了解有关该问题的进一步更新，并等待看看当前航空旅行需求的激增是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1329981/will-us-airlines-expansion-spree-boost-summer-trips?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID02-txt-1179798\">Zacks</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UAL":"联合大陆航空","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","LUV":"西南航空","DAL":"达美航空","AAL":"美国航空"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1329981/will-us-airlines-expansion-spree-boost-summer-trips?&art_rec=home-home-investment_ideas_stocks-ID02-txt-1179798","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2124780505","content_text":"After being ravaged by the coronavirus-led declining demand for air travel, things are looking up for the U.S. airlines this year. With the gradual reopening of the economy, economic activities are picking up. The upbeat reading on U.S. consumer optimism in March highlights this improving scenario. On Mar 30, 2021, the Conference Board reported that Consumer Confidence in March jumped to a one-year high of 109.7 from the downwardly revised 90.4 in February.The above buoyant scenario naturally translated into increased air-travel demand. The increasing number of people getting vaccinated by the day also bodes well. Highlighting this rosy scenario, the NYSE ARCA Airline Index has gained a massive 106.6% so far this year.Improved Bookings Boost AirlinesWith air-travel demand gradually bettering in the United States (particularly on the leisure front), U.S. carriers unfurled bullish projections. Evidently, American Airlines’ AAL management stated that bookings (with respect to the domestic markets and short-haul international flights) recently improved. Reflective of this uptick, the seven-day moving average as of Mar 26 regarding the net bookings at the currently Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) American Airlines was roughly 90% of the level recorded in 2019. Moreover, the reading related to domestic load factor (% of seats filled by passengers) was nearly 80% in the period, further mirroring the recovery in air-travel demand.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Highlighting the uptrend in booking trends, management of this Fort Worth, TX based carrier stated that it now expects system capacity (measured in available seat miles) for the March quarter to decline nearly in the 40-45% band from the levels achieved in first-quarter 2019. Earlier, the expectation was a decline of 45% for capacity from the first-quarter 2019 reading.American Airlines apart, other U.S. airline heavyweights like United Airlines UAL and Southwest Airlines LUV provided bright projections for the March quarter of 2021. Per Ankit Gupta, vice president of United Airlines’ domestic network planning and scheduling, the airline has seen the “strongest flight bookings since the start of the pandemic” over the past few weeks.That Americans are slowly taking to the skies again is reflected in the surging number of passengers screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at airports. Notably, more than 1 million passengers passed through the TSA checkpoints each day in the Mar 11-Mar 31 time frame.Airlines Announce Route ExpansionDriven by the upbeat air-travel demand, traffic is likely to be high during the Memorial Day. Moreover, the upcoming summer season is likely to be a busy one for the U.S. airlines, assuming that the current rebound in air-travel demand stays on.Evidently, the likes of United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Delta Air Lines DAL, Spirit Airlines SAVE and Alaska Air Group’s ALK subsidiary Alaska Airlines recently announced intentions to boost their respective domestic networks to meet the anticipated demand swell in the hotter months.For example, Southwest Airlines aims to initiate services to Myrtle Beach International Airport on May 23. Integral to this expansion boost to the popular vacation attraction in South Carolina, the airline intends to begin operating 10 nonstop routes from the city. Similarly, United Airlines plans to resume more than 20 domestic services this summer and operate more than 100% of its 2019 schedule to Latin America. The carrier expects its overall schedule to be 52% in May 2021 compared with the 2019 levels. This is a significant improvement from the May 2020 tally when the airline operated only 14% of its 2019 schedule.Moreover, Delta aims to add nine routes during summer. The nine new routes include those that will be added to the tourist-friendly destinations like Bozeman, Montana and Jackson Hole. Incidentally, Delta already operates several flights to Bozeman but to address the anticipated demand hike in summer, the carrier is broadening its base. In addition, this Atlanta-based carrier aims to extend its operations to more than 20 hubs.Wrapping UpAirlines will be hoping that the current air-travel demand continues to result in huge air traffic during summer, driven by the significant pent-up demand. This also explains their decisions to widen their domestic networks during the hot season by adding routes to facilitate travel to favorite tourist spots.However, the sole concern is the recent spike in coronavirus cases in the United States, which might dampen the demand uptick. Health officials in the country urged people to take necessary precautions to prevent another wave.Watch this space for further updates on the issue and also wait to see if the current surge in air-travel demand is sustainable or not.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DAL":0.9,"LUV":0.9,"ALK":0.9,"AAL":0.9,"UAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340419523,"gmtCreate":1617449268662,"gmtModify":1634520907768,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"not stonks 📉📉📉","listText":"not stonks 📉📉📉","text":"not stonks 📉📉📉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340419523","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357213117,"gmtCreate":1617276658139,"gmtModify":1634521663662,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gd read&nbsp;👍🏻","listText":"gd read&nbsp;👍🏻","text":"gd read 👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357213117","repostId":"2124220261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358438154,"gmtCreate":1616721216278,"gmtModify":1634524376984,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358438154","repostId":"1153623009","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153623009","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616720673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153623009?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 09:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Look At GameStop Stock Technicals As It Makes A Comeback<blockquote>游戏驿站股票卷土重来之际的技术面一览</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153623009","media":"benzinga","summary":"GameStop Corp. stock, which has been at the center of a volatile, Reddit- and Robinhood-driven ride ","content":"<p><div> GameStop Corp. stock, which has been at the center of a volatile, Reddit- and Robinhood-driven ride this year, rallied Thursday. The stock was up 48.37% at $178.79 ahead of the close. Here are some ...</p><p><blockquote><div>游戏驿站公司的股价今年一直处于Reddit和Robinhood推动的波动之中，周四上涨。该股收盘前上涨48.37%，至178.79美元。这里有一些...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Look At GameStop Stock Technicals As It Makes A Comeback<blockquote>游戏驿站股票卷土重来之际的技术面一览</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Look At GameStop Stock Technicals As It Makes A Comeback<blockquote>游戏驿站股票卷土重来之际的技术面一览</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 09:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> GameStop Corp. stock, which has been at the center of a volatile, Reddit- and Robinhood-driven ride this year, rallied Thursday. The stock was up 48.37% at $178.79 ahead of the close. Here are some ...</p><p><blockquote><div>游戏驿站公司的股价今年一直处于Reddit和Robinhood推动的波动之中，周四上涨。该股收盘前上涨48.37%，至178.79美元。这里有一些...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153623009","content_text":"GameStop Corp. stock, which has been at the center of a volatile, Reddit- and Robinhood-driven ride this year, rallied Thursday.\nThe stock was up 48.37% at $178.79 ahead of the close. Here are some technical levels in GameStop shares for traders to watch.\n\nGameStop Short-Term Chart Analysis:The 5-minute chart above shows three potential key levels to watch in GameStop shares.\nThe stock is trading in a channel between $150 and $200. The $200 level is an area that held as support before turning into resistance after falling below $200.\nThe stock showed some support near the $150 level Thursday. This area has shown support in the past and may hold again in the future.\nIf the $150 level were to be unable to hold, the stock may not find support again until near the $120 level. This was an area where the stock was able to find support premarket Thursday.\nGameStop is trading above both the 200-day moving average (blue) as well as the volume-weighted average price (pink), indicating possible short-term bullish sentiment in the stock.\n\nGameStop Daily Chart Analysis:The daily chart above shows GameStop found support near the $125 level after it broke above this price level, which was previously holding as resistance. This is an area where the stock may be able to see a bounce again in the future.\nThe stock has shown previous resistance near the $300 level, as the price was unable to break above this level and hold. This indicates the level may hold as resistance in the future.\nBulls would like to see GameStop rise up to resistance before breaking above and consolidating. Retesting the resistance level as support may hint that the stock will see a rise in price.\nBears would like to see the support levels break. If the price is able to break below these levels and consolidate, the price may be able to move down.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351886707,"gmtCreate":1616584798709,"gmtModify":1634525081474,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻👍🏻","text":"👍🏻👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351886707","repostId":"1170900340","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170900340","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616549073,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170900340?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-24 09:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This Little-Watched Stock Market Niche Signaling a Crash Ahead?<blockquote>这个鲜为人知的股市利基市场是否预示着未来的崩盘？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170900340","media":"fool","summary":"Small-caps are feeling the pain\nMany investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they","content":"<p>Small-caps are feeling the pain</p><p><blockquote>小盘股感受到了痛苦</blockquote></p><p> Many investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they play a vital role in gauging the health of the economy. Many large-cap stocks have global scope, and their share prices therefore more often represent the health of the global economy. By contrast, smaller companies are more likely to focus on their home markets. That means U.S. small-cap stocks often have exposure only to the U.S. economy.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者不太关注小盘股，但它们在衡量经济健康状况方面发挥着至关重要的作用。许多大盘股具有全球范围，因此它们的股价更多地代表着全球经济的健康状况。相比之下，规模较小的公司更有可能专注于本国市场。这意味着美国小盘股通常只对美国经济有敞口。</blockquote></p><p> It's therefore troubling to see the<b>Russell 2000 Index</b>fall sharply over the past week. Looking back over the past week, even as the major large-cap indexes have stayed in a tight range, varying from being up slightly to down around 1%, the Russell has seen a big drop of nearly 6%. That's already a minor correction in many investors' eyes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到<b>罗素2000指数</b>过去一周大幅下跌。回顾过去一周，尽管主要大盘指数维持在窄幅区间，从小幅上涨到下跌1%左右，但罗素指数却出现了近6%的大跌。在许多投资者看来，这已经是一个小调整。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1477ac9c10cb42de9401ae785e7cf2\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Small-cap companies face an uncertain environment that could go in either direction. On one hand, there's a huge amount of pent-up demand for companies in certain industries, and once the pandemic is under control, those businesses stand to see substantial rises in revenue and profits. However, small-cap stocks are also more sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates. The rise in longer-term rates has been troubling for small companies, especially those that took on additional leverage during the pandemic in order to keep their operations afloat. Higher borrowing costs could divert capital away from growth efforts at exactly the worst possible time.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股公司面临着一个不确定的环境，这种环境可能会向任何一个方向发展。一方面，某些行业的公司存在大量被压抑的需求，一旦疫情得到控制，这些企业的收入和利润将大幅增长。然而，小盘股对利率等宏观经济因素也更加敏感。长期利率的上升一直困扰着小公司，尤其是那些在疫情期间为了维持运营而增加杠杆的公司。更高的借贷成本可能会在最糟糕的时候将资本从增长努力中转移出来。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the downward move also relates to the heavier concentration of energy stocks among small-caps. Large-cap indexes have very little energy exposure, but sizable drops in companies like<b>Laredo Petroleum</b>(NYSE:LPI)and<b>Nabors Industries</b>(NYSE:NBR)over the past week have had an impact on the Russell.</p><p><blockquote>部分下跌也与能源股更集中在小盘股中有关。大盘股指数的能源敞口很小，但像这样的公司却大幅下跌<b>拉雷多石油公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LPI）和<b>纳伯斯工业公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NBR）过去一周对罗素指数产生了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Reverting to the mean</p><p><blockquote>恢复到平均值</blockquote></p><p> The counterargument to worries about small-cap stocks is that when you look over even slightly longer time frames, they're still doing relatively well. So far in 2021, the Russell has gained almost 13%, which is more than double what investors in the Dow and S&amp;P have seen. A slight pullback for the small-cap benchmark from its peak outperformance earlier this month certainly doesn't mean that a stock market crash is imminent. Short-term swings happen all the time.</p><p><blockquote>对小盘股担忧的反驳是，当你观察稍长的时间框架时，它们的表现仍然相对较好。2021年迄今为止，罗素指数已上涨近13%，是道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数投资者涨幅的两倍多。小盘股基准指数较本月早些时候的峰值表现略有回落，当然并不意味着股市崩盘即将来临。短期波动一直在发生。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, with comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed chair Jerome Powell expected later Tuesday, Wall Street will still be watching the overall market and small-cap stocks in particular. If this disparity continues, it won't be a good signal for those hoping for a strong recovery in Main Street U.S. businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，由于财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔预计将于周二晚些时候发表评论，华尔街仍将关注整体市场，尤其是小盘股。如果这种差距持续下去，对于那些希望2021年美国主流企业强劲复苏的人来说，这不是一个好信号。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This Little-Watched Stock Market Niche Signaling a Crash Ahead?<blockquote>这个鲜为人知的股市利基市场是否预示着未来的崩盘？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Little-Watched Stock Market Niche Signaling a Crash Ahead?<blockquote>这个鲜为人知的股市利基市场是否预示着未来的崩盘？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-24 09:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Small-caps are feeling the pain</p><p><blockquote>小盘股感受到了痛苦</blockquote></p><p> Many investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they play a vital role in gauging the health of the economy. Many large-cap stocks have global scope, and their share prices therefore more often represent the health of the global economy. By contrast, smaller companies are more likely to focus on their home markets. That means U.S. small-cap stocks often have exposure only to the U.S. economy.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者不太关注小盘股，但它们在衡量经济健康状况方面发挥着至关重要的作用。许多大盘股具有全球范围，因此它们的股价更多地代表着全球经济的健康状况。相比之下，规模较小的公司更有可能专注于本国市场。这意味着美国小盘股通常只对美国经济有敞口。</blockquote></p><p> It's therefore troubling to see the<b>Russell 2000 Index</b>fall sharply over the past week. Looking back over the past week, even as the major large-cap indexes have stayed in a tight range, varying from being up slightly to down around 1%, the Russell has seen a big drop of nearly 6%. That's already a minor correction in many investors' eyes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到<b>罗素2000指数</b>过去一周大幅下跌。回顾过去一周，尽管主要大盘指数维持在窄幅区间，从小幅上涨到下跌1%左右，但罗素指数却出现了近6%的大跌。在许多投资者看来，这已经是一个小调整。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1477ac9c10cb42de9401ae785e7cf2\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Small-cap companies face an uncertain environment that could go in either direction. On one hand, there's a huge amount of pent-up demand for companies in certain industries, and once the pandemic is under control, those businesses stand to see substantial rises in revenue and profits. However, small-cap stocks are also more sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates. The rise in longer-term rates has been troubling for small companies, especially those that took on additional leverage during the pandemic in order to keep their operations afloat. Higher borrowing costs could divert capital away from growth efforts at exactly the worst possible time.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股公司面临着一个不确定的环境，这种环境可能会向任何一个方向发展。一方面，某些行业的公司存在大量被压抑的需求，一旦疫情得到控制，这些企业的收入和利润将大幅增长。然而，小盘股对利率等宏观经济因素也更加敏感。长期利率的上升一直困扰着小公司，尤其是那些在疫情期间为了维持运营而增加杠杆的公司。更高的借贷成本可能会在最糟糕的时候将资本从增长努力中转移出来。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the downward move also relates to the heavier concentration of energy stocks among small-caps. Large-cap indexes have very little energy exposure, but sizable drops in companies like<b>Laredo Petroleum</b>(NYSE:LPI)and<b>Nabors Industries</b>(NYSE:NBR)over the past week have had an impact on the Russell.</p><p><blockquote>部分下跌也与能源股更集中在小盘股中有关。大盘股指数的能源敞口很小，但像这样的公司却大幅下跌<b>拉雷多石油公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LPI）和<b>纳伯斯工业公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NBR）过去一周对罗素指数产生了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Reverting to the mean</p><p><blockquote>恢复到平均值</blockquote></p><p> The counterargument to worries about small-cap stocks is that when you look over even slightly longer time frames, they're still doing relatively well. So far in 2021, the Russell has gained almost 13%, which is more than double what investors in the Dow and S&amp;P have seen. A slight pullback for the small-cap benchmark from its peak outperformance earlier this month certainly doesn't mean that a stock market crash is imminent. Short-term swings happen all the time.</p><p><blockquote>对小盘股担忧的反驳是，当你观察稍长的时间框架时，它们的表现仍然相对较好。2021年迄今为止，罗素指数已上涨近13%，是道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数投资者涨幅的两倍多。小盘股基准指数较本月早些时候的峰值表现略有回落，当然并不意味着股市崩盘即将来临。短期波动一直在发生。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, with comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed chair Jerome Powell expected later Tuesday, Wall Street will still be watching the overall market and small-cap stocks in particular. If this disparity continues, it won't be a good signal for those hoping for a strong recovery in Main Street U.S. businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，由于财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔预计将于周二晚些时候发表评论，华尔街仍将关注整体市场，尤其是小盘股。如果这种差距持续下去，对于那些希望2021年美国主流企业强劲复苏的人来说，这不是一个好信号。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/23/is-this-little-watched-stock-market-niche-signalin/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/23/is-this-little-watched-stock-market-niche-signalin/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170900340","content_text":"Small-caps are feeling the pain\nMany investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they play a vital role in gauging the health of the economy. Many large-cap stocks have global scope, and their share prices therefore more often represent the health of the global economy. By contrast, smaller companies are more likely to focus on their home markets. That means U.S. small-cap stocks often have exposure only to the U.S. economy.\nIt's therefore troubling to see theRussell 2000 Indexfall sharply over the past week. Looking back over the past week, even as the major large-cap indexes have stayed in a tight range, varying from being up slightly to down around 1%, the Russell has seen a big drop of nearly 6%. That's already a minor correction in many investors' eyes.\nSmall-cap companies face an uncertain environment that could go in either direction. On one hand, there's a huge amount of pent-up demand for companies in certain industries, and once the pandemic is under control, those businesses stand to see substantial rises in revenue and profits. However, small-cap stocks are also more sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates. The rise in longer-term rates has been troubling for small companies, especially those that took on additional leverage during the pandemic in order to keep their operations afloat. Higher borrowing costs could divert capital away from growth efforts at exactly the worst possible time.\nSome of the downward move also relates to the heavier concentration of energy stocks among small-caps. Large-cap indexes have very little energy exposure, but sizable drops in companies likeLaredo Petroleum(NYSE:LPI)andNabors Industries(NYSE:NBR)over the past week have had an impact on the Russell.\nReverting to the mean\nThe counterargument to worries about small-cap stocks is that when you look over even slightly longer time frames, they're still doing relatively well. So far in 2021, the Russell has gained almost 13%, which is more than double what investors in the Dow and S&P have seen. A slight pullback for the small-cap benchmark from its peak outperformance earlier this month certainly doesn't mean that a stock market crash is imminent. Short-term swings happen all the time.\nNevertheless, with comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed chair Jerome Powell expected later Tuesday, Wall Street will still be watching the overall market and small-cap stocks in particular. If this disparity continues, it won't be a good signal for those hoping for a strong recovery in Main Street U.S. businesses in 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350244495,"gmtCreate":1616218658717,"gmtModify":1634526674642,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good read!","listText":"good read!","text":"good read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350244495","repostId":"1103756496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":349685086,"gmtCreate":1617605058145,"gmtModify":1634297635866,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😱😱😱","listText":"😱😱😱","text":"😱😱😱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349685086","repostId":"1111940400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349340647,"gmtCreate":1617551979089,"gmtModify":1634520555029,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349340647","repostId":"2124780505","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340419523,"gmtCreate":1617449268662,"gmtModify":1634520907768,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"not stonks 📉📉📉","listText":"not stonks 📉📉📉","text":"not stonks 📉📉📉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340419523","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350244495,"gmtCreate":1616218658717,"gmtModify":1634526674642,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good read!","listText":"good read!","text":"good read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350244495","repostId":"1103756496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351886707,"gmtCreate":1616584798709,"gmtModify":1634525081474,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻👍🏻","text":"👍🏻👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351886707","repostId":"1170900340","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170900340","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616549073,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170900340?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-24 09:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This Little-Watched Stock Market Niche Signaling a Crash Ahead?<blockquote>这个鲜为人知的股市利基市场是否预示着未来的崩盘？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170900340","media":"fool","summary":"Small-caps are feeling the pain\nMany investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they","content":"<p>Small-caps are feeling the pain</p><p><blockquote>小盘股感受到了痛苦</blockquote></p><p> Many investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they play a vital role in gauging the health of the economy. Many large-cap stocks have global scope, and their share prices therefore more often represent the health of the global economy. By contrast, smaller companies are more likely to focus on their home markets. That means U.S. small-cap stocks often have exposure only to the U.S. economy.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者不太关注小盘股，但它们在衡量经济健康状况方面发挥着至关重要的作用。许多大盘股具有全球范围，因此它们的股价更多地代表着全球经济的健康状况。相比之下，规模较小的公司更有可能专注于本国市场。这意味着美国小盘股通常只对美国经济有敞口。</blockquote></p><p> It's therefore troubling to see the<b>Russell 2000 Index</b>fall sharply over the past week. Looking back over the past week, even as the major large-cap indexes have stayed in a tight range, varying from being up slightly to down around 1%, the Russell has seen a big drop of nearly 6%. That's already a minor correction in many investors' eyes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到<b>罗素2000指数</b>过去一周大幅下跌。回顾过去一周，尽管主要大盘指数维持在窄幅区间，从小幅上涨到下跌1%左右，但罗素指数却出现了近6%的大跌。在许多投资者看来，这已经是一个小调整。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1477ac9c10cb42de9401ae785e7cf2\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Small-cap companies face an uncertain environment that could go in either direction. On one hand, there's a huge amount of pent-up demand for companies in certain industries, and once the pandemic is under control, those businesses stand to see substantial rises in revenue and profits. However, small-cap stocks are also more sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates. The rise in longer-term rates has been troubling for small companies, especially those that took on additional leverage during the pandemic in order to keep their operations afloat. Higher borrowing costs could divert capital away from growth efforts at exactly the worst possible time.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股公司面临着一个不确定的环境，这种环境可能会向任何一个方向发展。一方面，某些行业的公司存在大量被压抑的需求，一旦疫情得到控制，这些企业的收入和利润将大幅增长。然而，小盘股对利率等宏观经济因素也更加敏感。长期利率的上升一直困扰着小公司，尤其是那些在疫情期间为了维持运营而增加杠杆的公司。更高的借贷成本可能会在最糟糕的时候将资本从增长努力中转移出来。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the downward move also relates to the heavier concentration of energy stocks among small-caps. Large-cap indexes have very little energy exposure, but sizable drops in companies like<b>Laredo Petroleum</b>(NYSE:LPI)and<b>Nabors Industries</b>(NYSE:NBR)over the past week have had an impact on the Russell.</p><p><blockquote>部分下跌也与能源股更集中在小盘股中有关。大盘股指数的能源敞口很小，但像这样的公司却大幅下跌<b>拉雷多石油公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LPI）和<b>纳伯斯工业公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NBR）过去一周对罗素指数产生了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Reverting to the mean</p><p><blockquote>恢复到平均值</blockquote></p><p> The counterargument to worries about small-cap stocks is that when you look over even slightly longer time frames, they're still doing relatively well. So far in 2021, the Russell has gained almost 13%, which is more than double what investors in the Dow and S&amp;P have seen. A slight pullback for the small-cap benchmark from its peak outperformance earlier this month certainly doesn't mean that a stock market crash is imminent. Short-term swings happen all the time.</p><p><blockquote>对小盘股担忧的反驳是，当你观察稍长的时间框架时，它们的表现仍然相对较好。2021年迄今为止，罗素指数已上涨近13%，是道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数投资者涨幅的两倍多。小盘股基准指数较本月早些时候的峰值表现略有回落，当然并不意味着股市崩盘即将来临。短期波动一直在发生。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, with comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed chair Jerome Powell expected later Tuesday, Wall Street will still be watching the overall market and small-cap stocks in particular. If this disparity continues, it won't be a good signal for those hoping for a strong recovery in Main Street U.S. businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，由于财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔预计将于周二晚些时候发表评论，华尔街仍将关注整体市场，尤其是小盘股。如果这种差距持续下去，对于那些希望2021年美国主流企业强劲复苏的人来说，这不是一个好信号。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This Little-Watched Stock Market Niche Signaling a Crash Ahead?<blockquote>这个鲜为人知的股市利基市场是否预示着未来的崩盘？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Little-Watched Stock Market Niche Signaling a Crash Ahead?<blockquote>这个鲜为人知的股市利基市场是否预示着未来的崩盘？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-24 09:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Small-caps are feeling the pain</p><p><blockquote>小盘股感受到了痛苦</blockquote></p><p> Many investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they play a vital role in gauging the health of the economy. Many large-cap stocks have global scope, and their share prices therefore more often represent the health of the global economy. By contrast, smaller companies are more likely to focus on their home markets. That means U.S. small-cap stocks often have exposure only to the U.S. economy.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者不太关注小盘股，但它们在衡量经济健康状况方面发挥着至关重要的作用。许多大盘股具有全球范围，因此它们的股价更多地代表着全球经济的健康状况。相比之下，规模较小的公司更有可能专注于本国市场。这意味着美国小盘股通常只对美国经济有敞口。</blockquote></p><p> It's therefore troubling to see the<b>Russell 2000 Index</b>fall sharply over the past week. Looking back over the past week, even as the major large-cap indexes have stayed in a tight range, varying from being up slightly to down around 1%, the Russell has seen a big drop of nearly 6%. That's already a minor correction in many investors' eyes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到<b>罗素2000指数</b>过去一周大幅下跌。回顾过去一周，尽管主要大盘指数维持在窄幅区间，从小幅上涨到下跌1%左右，但罗素指数却出现了近6%的大跌。在许多投资者看来，这已经是一个小调整。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1477ac9c10cb42de9401ae785e7cf2\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Small-cap companies face an uncertain environment that could go in either direction. On one hand, there's a huge amount of pent-up demand for companies in certain industries, and once the pandemic is under control, those businesses stand to see substantial rises in revenue and profits. However, small-cap stocks are also more sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates. The rise in longer-term rates has been troubling for small companies, especially those that took on additional leverage during the pandemic in order to keep their operations afloat. Higher borrowing costs could divert capital away from growth efforts at exactly the worst possible time.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股公司面临着一个不确定的环境，这种环境可能会向任何一个方向发展。一方面，某些行业的公司存在大量被压抑的需求，一旦疫情得到控制，这些企业的收入和利润将大幅增长。然而，小盘股对利率等宏观经济因素也更加敏感。长期利率的上升一直困扰着小公司，尤其是那些在疫情期间为了维持运营而增加杠杆的公司。更高的借贷成本可能会在最糟糕的时候将资本从增长努力中转移出来。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the downward move also relates to the heavier concentration of energy stocks among small-caps. Large-cap indexes have very little energy exposure, but sizable drops in companies like<b>Laredo Petroleum</b>(NYSE:LPI)and<b>Nabors Industries</b>(NYSE:NBR)over the past week have had an impact on the Russell.</p><p><blockquote>部分下跌也与能源股更集中在小盘股中有关。大盘股指数的能源敞口很小，但像这样的公司却大幅下跌<b>拉雷多石油公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：LPI）和<b>纳伯斯工业公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NBR）过去一周对罗素指数产生了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Reverting to the mean</p><p><blockquote>恢复到平均值</blockquote></p><p> The counterargument to worries about small-cap stocks is that when you look over even slightly longer time frames, they're still doing relatively well. So far in 2021, the Russell has gained almost 13%, which is more than double what investors in the Dow and S&amp;P have seen. A slight pullback for the small-cap benchmark from its peak outperformance earlier this month certainly doesn't mean that a stock market crash is imminent. Short-term swings happen all the time.</p><p><blockquote>对小盘股担忧的反驳是，当你观察稍长的时间框架时，它们的表现仍然相对较好。2021年迄今为止，罗素指数已上涨近13%，是道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数投资者涨幅的两倍多。小盘股基准指数较本月早些时候的峰值表现略有回落，当然并不意味着股市崩盘即将来临。短期波动一直在发生。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, with comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed chair Jerome Powell expected later Tuesday, Wall Street will still be watching the overall market and small-cap stocks in particular. If this disparity continues, it won't be a good signal for those hoping for a strong recovery in Main Street U.S. businesses in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，由于财政部长珍妮特·耶伦和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔预计将于周二晚些时候发表评论，华尔街仍将关注整体市场，尤其是小盘股。如果这种差距持续下去，对于那些希望2021年美国主流企业强劲复苏的人来说，这不是一个好信号。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/23/is-this-little-watched-stock-market-niche-signalin/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/23/is-this-little-watched-stock-market-niche-signalin/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170900340","content_text":"Small-caps are feeling the pain\nMany investors don't pay much attention tosmall-cap stocks, but they play a vital role in gauging the health of the economy. Many large-cap stocks have global scope, and their share prices therefore more often represent the health of the global economy. By contrast, smaller companies are more likely to focus on their home markets. That means U.S. small-cap stocks often have exposure only to the U.S. economy.\nIt's therefore troubling to see theRussell 2000 Indexfall sharply over the past week. Looking back over the past week, even as the major large-cap indexes have stayed in a tight range, varying from being up slightly to down around 1%, the Russell has seen a big drop of nearly 6%. That's already a minor correction in many investors' eyes.\nSmall-cap companies face an uncertain environment that could go in either direction. On one hand, there's a huge amount of pent-up demand for companies in certain industries, and once the pandemic is under control, those businesses stand to see substantial rises in revenue and profits. However, small-cap stocks are also more sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates. The rise in longer-term rates has been troubling for small companies, especially those that took on additional leverage during the pandemic in order to keep their operations afloat. Higher borrowing costs could divert capital away from growth efforts at exactly the worst possible time.\nSome of the downward move also relates to the heavier concentration of energy stocks among small-caps. Large-cap indexes have very little energy exposure, but sizable drops in companies likeLaredo Petroleum(NYSE:LPI)andNabors Industries(NYSE:NBR)over the past week have had an impact on the Russell.\nReverting to the mean\nThe counterargument to worries about small-cap stocks is that when you look over even slightly longer time frames, they're still doing relatively well. So far in 2021, the Russell has gained almost 13%, which is more than double what investors in the Dow and S&P have seen. A slight pullback for the small-cap benchmark from its peak outperformance earlier this month certainly doesn't mean that a stock market crash is imminent. Short-term swings happen all the time.\nNevertheless, with comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed chair Jerome Powell expected later Tuesday, Wall Street will still be watching the overall market and small-cap stocks in particular. If this disparity continues, it won't be a good signal for those hoping for a strong recovery in Main Street U.S. businesses in 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358438154,"gmtCreate":1616721216278,"gmtModify":1634524376984,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358438154","repostId":"1153623009","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153623009","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616720673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153623009?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 09:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Look At GameStop Stock Technicals As It Makes A Comeback<blockquote>游戏驿站股票卷土重来之际的技术面一览</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153623009","media":"benzinga","summary":"GameStop Corp. stock, which has been at the center of a volatile, Reddit- and Robinhood-driven ride ","content":"<p><div> GameStop Corp. stock, which has been at the center of a volatile, Reddit- and Robinhood-driven ride this year, rallied Thursday. The stock was up 48.37% at $178.79 ahead of the close. Here are some ...</p><p><blockquote><div>游戏驿站公司的股价今年一直处于Reddit和Robinhood推动的波动之中，周四上涨。该股收盘前上涨48.37%，至178.79美元。这里有一些...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Look At GameStop Stock Technicals As It Makes A Comeback<blockquote>游戏驿站股票卷土重来之际的技术面一览</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Look At GameStop Stock Technicals As It Makes A Comeback<blockquote>游戏驿站股票卷土重来之际的技术面一览</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 09:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> GameStop Corp. stock, which has been at the center of a volatile, Reddit- and Robinhood-driven ride this year, rallied Thursday. The stock was up 48.37% at $178.79 ahead of the close. Here are some ...</p><p><blockquote><div>游戏驿站公司的股价今年一直处于Reddit和Robinhood推动的波动之中，周四上涨。该股收盘前上涨48.37%，至178.79美元。这里有一些...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/03/20345876/a-look-at-gamestop-stock-technicals-as-it-makes-a-comeback","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153623009","content_text":"GameStop Corp. stock, which has been at the center of a volatile, Reddit- and Robinhood-driven ride this year, rallied Thursday.\nThe stock was up 48.37% at $178.79 ahead of the close. Here are some technical levels in GameStop shares for traders to watch.\n\nGameStop Short-Term Chart Analysis:The 5-minute chart above shows three potential key levels to watch in GameStop shares.\nThe stock is trading in a channel between $150 and $200. The $200 level is an area that held as support before turning into resistance after falling below $200.\nThe stock showed some support near the $150 level Thursday. This area has shown support in the past and may hold again in the future.\nIf the $150 level were to be unable to hold, the stock may not find support again until near the $120 level. This was an area where the stock was able to find support premarket Thursday.\nGameStop is trading above both the 200-day moving average (blue) as well as the volume-weighted average price (pink), indicating possible short-term bullish sentiment in the stock.\n\nGameStop Daily Chart Analysis:The daily chart above shows GameStop found support near the $125 level after it broke above this price level, which was previously holding as resistance. This is an area where the stock may be able to see a bounce again in the future.\nThe stock has shown previous resistance near the $300 level, as the price was unable to break above this level and hold. This indicates the level may hold as resistance in the future.\nBulls would like to see GameStop rise up to resistance before breaking above and consolidating. Retesting the resistance level as support may hint that the stock will see a rise in price.\nBears would like to see the support levels break. If the price is able to break below these levels and consolidate, the price may be able to move down.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357213117,"gmtCreate":1617276658139,"gmtModify":1634521663662,"author":{"id":"3563761191658671","authorId":"3563761191658671","name":"greenbean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563761191658671","idStr":"3563761191658671"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gd read&nbsp;👍🏻","listText":"gd read&nbsp;👍🏻","text":"gd read 👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357213117","repostId":"2124220261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}