和旺旺的个人主页 - 老虎社区

和旺旺

和旺旺

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IP属地：新疆

171关注

2粉丝

4主题

0勋章

2024-10-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 看跌

2022-12-06

[惊讶]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-11-30

活动好玩，大家快来参与

2022-11-22

[微笑]

@IPO早知道:Dragonfly Therapeutics协议合作开发产品

2022-11-17

[呆住] [呆住] [呆住]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-11-02

$阿里影业(01060)$

2022-10-31

$小米集团-W(01810)$涨

2022-10-27

利好吗

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-10-26

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-10-26

好

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-10-25

🙃🙃🙃

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-10-24

😭

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-10-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@锐评:老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？

2022-10-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@小虎资管:流动性指标仍亮红灯

2022-10-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@印飞:大概有三年时间没有动过老虎的账户了，从破产到现在两年多，做过送外卖，跑过网约车，现在是一名房产经纪人。曾经的我年轻气盛犯了许多错误，过去的事情不想再提，希望自己可以翻盘

2022-10-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@FinMelon:微波消融医疗器械提供商百德医疗迎年均增速33%的行业性机遇

2022-09-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@二十三三:《每日一省》——漫漫长路

2022-09-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@小韭儿:$特斯拉(TSLA)$最近真的忙到起飞了，市场波动太大，不太适合普通人贸贸然参与，但像特斯拉这种大票，我说过，多空趋势都很明显。无论什么时候参与都有机会。三百以下的特斯拉还是很便宜的，当然如果能捡到更便宜的那真是太划算的长期投资了。

2022-09-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@问就是加仓up:写在腾讯股价创近四年新低之际

2022-09-26

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@期权小班长:82%概率加息75基点，然而多空战况依然焦灼

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Therapeutics公司签订合作协议，利用诺纳生物专有的HCAb转基因小鼠平台生成全人源重链抗体，用以双特异性抗体及多特异性抗体疗法的开发。 根据协议，诺纳生物将向Dragonfly Therapeutics提供HCAb技术使用权，并根据Dragonfly Therapeutics的需求针对指定靶点生成抗体产品。 诺纳生物是一家致力于为合作伙伴提供涵盖靶点验证和多元化形态药物分子从发现至临床前研发等“I to ITM（Idea to IND）”完整服务的国际化创新生物技术公司。 基于其全人源抗体转基因小鼠平台Harbour Mice，诺纳生物可提供涵盖抗原制备、动物免疫、单B细胞筛选、抗体开发与工程、成药性评估和药理评估的一站式抗体发现解决方案。Harbour Mice可生成经典抗体（H2L2）和仅重链（HCAb）形式的全人源单克隆抗体，与单B细胞克隆筛选平台相互协作从而优化抗体发现效率。 临床阶段生物制药公司Dragonfly Therapeutics主要基于其创新的双抗技术以发现、研发及商业化创新疗法，利用人体自身免疫系统为患者带来突破性治疗。Dragonfly Therapeutics拥有一条基于其专有平台开发的自研临床前候选药物管线，并与Merck、AbbVie、Gilead及BMS展开合作。 HCAb专利技术能够开发新一代的全人源重链抗体，由于不含轻链的这一特点，这一技术平台能够开发出传统抗体平台难以实现的产品。另外，此平台还可以开发多种新型治疗性抗体形态，包括单域抗体、双特异性和多特异性抗体、抗体药物偶联物、CAR-T或其他VH单域衍生产品。 11月11日","text":"\"诺纳生物可提供差异化抗体临床前研发一站式解决方案。\" 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜C叔 据IPO早知道消息，11月21日，和铂医药（2142.HK）发布公告称，其全资子公司诺纳生物与Dragonfly Therapeutics公司签订合作协议，利用诺纳生物专有的HCAb转基因小鼠平台生成全人源重链抗体，用以双特异性抗体及多特异性抗体疗法的开发。 根据协议，诺纳生物将向Dragonfly Therapeutics提供HCAb技术使用权，并根据Dragonfly Therapeutics的需求针对指定靶点生成抗体产品。 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0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者特斯拉股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a le","text":"马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06678\">$百德医疗(06678)$</a>&nbsp;公告称公司在香港资本市场开启招股环节，保荐机构为中泰国际融资、中银国际亚洲。公司此次IPO预计发行2.48亿股，其中香港公开发售2480万股，国际发售2.23亿股，超额配售最多为3720万股（如有）。发行价格区间为每股1.40至1.72港元。预计上市日期为2022年10月5日，每手2000股。募集资金中41%将用作扩大及深化公司的产品组合、升级公司的医疗许可证及扩充研发团队；38%将用作选择性寻求能够补充公司的现有产品组合、销售及分销网络、技术，并为公司的业务增长创造协同效应的策略收购、投资或业务协同合作机会；8%将用作透过设立海外办事处；3%将用于购买自动化机械及设备以提高公司的生产线的自动化水平；10%将用作额外营运资金及其他一般公司用途。目前看来，作为国内市场上首家有甲状腺3类证企业，公司已成为微波消融医疗器械领先供应商之一，按2021年微波消融针的销售收入及销量计，更是中国治疗甲状腺结节及乳腺结节的微波消融医疗器械第一大龙头，规模、技术优势背景下公司近年来业绩不断增长。未来，随着行业规模高速增长以及公司与机构合作的研发模式保证产品线稳定扩张，百德医疗有望持续展现高增长态势。深耕微波消融 成就领域大龙头地位十余年专注，百德医疗已经成为行业的龙头型企业。微波消融是一种微创治疗技术，利用微波能量产生的极高热量改变肿瘤细胞蛋白质的性质，并使其凝结。微波消融治疗已应用于不同的良性及恶性肿瘤并具有安全、微创、操作简便、患者恢复快及并发症低等优点。部分类型的良性肿瘤可能通过称为癌症进展的过程转变为恶性肿瘤。根据弗若斯特沙利文资料，肺结节、甲状腺结节及乳","text":"微波消融医疗器械龙头企业百德医疗，即将完成IPO最后冲刺。2022年9月22日，$百德医疗(06678)$ 公告称公司在香港资本市场开启招股环节，保荐机构为中泰国际融资、中银国际亚洲。公司此次IPO预计发行2.48亿股，其中香港公开发售2480万股，国际发售2.23亿股，超额配售最多为3720万股（如有）。发行价格区间为每股1.40至1.72港元。预计上市日期为2022年10月5日，每手2000股。募集资金中41%将用作扩大及深化公司的产品组合、升级公司的医疗许可证及扩充研发团队；38%将用作选择性寻求能够补充公司的现有产品组合、销售及分销网络、技术，并为公司的业务增长创造协同效应的策略收购、投资或业务协同合作机会；8%将用作透过设立海外办事处；3%将用于购买自动化机械及设备以提高公司的生产线的自动化水平；10%将用作额外营运资金及其他一般公司用途。目前看来，作为国内市场上首家有甲状腺3类证企业，公司已成为微波消融医疗器械领先供应商之一，按2021年微波消融针的销售收入及销量计，更是中国治疗甲状腺结节及乳腺结节的微波消融医疗器械第一大龙头，规模、技术优势背景下公司近年来业绩不断增长。未来，随着行业规模高速增长以及公司与机构合作的研发模式保证产品线稳定扩张，百德医疗有望持续展现高增长态势。深耕微波消融 成就领域大龙头地位十余年专注，百德医疗已经成为行业的龙头型企业。微波消融是一种微创治疗技术，利用微波能量产生的极高热量改变肿瘤细胞蛋白质的性质，并使其凝结。微波消融治疗已应用于不同的良性及恶性肿瘤并具有安全、微创、操作简便、患者恢复快及并发症低等优点。部分类型的良性肿瘤可能通过称为癌症进展的过程转变为恶性肿瘤。根据弗若斯特沙利文资料，肺结节、甲状腺结节及乳","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4f7335f9a149a61831e968a083e352d","width":"632","height":"533"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42fc6fa48728d70abcb740df65e1879b","width":"632","height":"235"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6aa4d51057bcfa93581e16fc1305100","width":"632","height":"678"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661416943","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668008081,"gmtCreate":1664278583644,"gmtModify":1664278586262,"author":{"id":"3564483904405629","authorId":"3564483904405629","name":"和旺旺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb87bd311c1faaf986c49a5493ee1a45","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564483904405629","authorIdStr":"3564483904405629"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668008081","repostId":"661237493","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":661237493,"gmtCreate":1663933658313,"gmtModify":1663937326493,"author":{"id":"4098085184326980","authorId":"4098085184326980","name":"二十三三","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e63cce3fc8ec347425a03102f4bdf1dd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098085184326980","authorIdStr":"4098085184326980"},"themes":[],"title":"《每日一省》——漫漫长路","htmlText":"又崩了！借着人民币贬值的档口，恒生指数又崩了。再创下11年来新低，腾讯4年来新低，大有破2018年低点的势头。关注的几个港股也大都萎靡不振,这是个另一个形势的戴维斯双杀,汇率跌、估值跌、双杀，港股没有希望了。按理说：人民币贬值有利于A股啊！可A股今天也跌，涨的只有跌的家数8分之一，可谓一片惨淡。等等看吧。等到人民币到7.75到7.85之间。和港币同一价格时候，到时候把人民币和港币挂钩，汇率1：1等值，让香港和内地联系更紧密一些，顺便把美元将踢走，可能会出现一波戴维斯双击。只是不知道这个设想啥时候能实现。能不能成立还要看以后的走势。港股快手跌，美团也在跌、哔哩哔哩还是在跌。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a>&nbsp;这市场熊市彻底深入了。以前人家说，港股恒生指数腾讯占比太低，所以导致恒指失真，最近几年腾讯终于占比扩大了，可是自从扩大了之后，反而熊途漫漫，又开始拖累恒指。这样的指数其实对市场反应远不如纳指和标普500，甚至不如道指，这是恒指一大弊端。恒生指数 (HSI)多数个股已经跌的比指数惨多了。不管是大盘股如腾讯阿里，还是小盘股如微盟、平安好医生。都是一片惨淡，惨不忍睹！远远比大盘跌幅多多了。就一些香港人喜欢的，号称存汇丰不如买汇丰，圣诞钟，买汇丰。以它为代表的银行股和和一些本地的如李嘉诚长江集团跌的稍微少一点。腾讯都已经腰斩了还多，这是2008年金融危机都没有出现的事情。不过腾讯今天传来好消息，说注销了2244万股，大概接近70个亿港币，这是个大事，意味着以后腾讯极有可能苹果化，成为像苹果一样的公司，在业务发展变缓以后，靠回购和派息来拉动公司股价。这未尝不是一件好事，自从苹果库克推出回购和派息以后。算上派息和回购，苹果股票回报率达到了8倍多。不知道腾讯会不会也这样的","listText":"又崩了！借着人民币贬值的档口，恒生指数又崩了。再创下11年来新低，腾讯4年来新低，大有破2018年低点的势头。关注的几个港股也大都萎靡不振,这是个另一个形势的戴维斯双杀,汇率跌、估值跌、双杀，港股没有希望了。按理说：人民币贬值有利于A股啊！可A股今天也跌，涨的只有跌的家数8分之一，可谓一片惨淡。等等看吧。等到人民币到7.75到7.85之间。和港币同一价格时候，到时候把人民币和港币挂钩，汇率1：1等值，让香港和内地联系更紧密一些，顺便把美元将踢走，可能会出现一波戴维斯双击。只是不知道这个设想啥时候能实现。能不能成立还要看以后的走势。港股快手跌，美团也在跌、哔哩哔哩还是在跌。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a>&nbsp;这市场熊市彻底深入了。以前人家说，港股恒生指数腾讯占比太低，所以导致恒指失真，最近几年腾讯终于占比扩大了，可是自从扩大了之后，反而熊途漫漫，又开始拖累恒指。这样的指数其实对市场反应远不如纳指和标普500，甚至不如道指，这是恒指一大弊端。恒生指数 (HSI)多数个股已经跌的比指数惨多了。不管是大盘股如腾讯阿里，还是小盘股如微盟、平安好医生。都是一片惨淡，惨不忍睹！远远比大盘跌幅多多了。就一些香港人喜欢的，号称存汇丰不如买汇丰，圣诞钟，买汇丰。以它为代表的银行股和和一些本地的如李嘉诚长江集团跌的稍微少一点。腾讯都已经腰斩了还多，这是2008年金融危机都没有出现的事情。不过腾讯今天传来好消息，说注销了2244万股，大概接近70个亿港币，这是个大事，意味着以后腾讯极有可能苹果化，成为像苹果一样的公司，在业务发展变缓以后，靠回购和派息来拉动公司股价。这未尝不是一件好事，自从苹果库克推出回购和派息以后。算上派息和回购，苹果股票回报率达到了8倍多。不知道腾讯会不会也这样的","text":"又崩了！借着人民币贬值的档口，恒生指数又崩了。再创下11年来新低，腾讯4年来新低，大有破2018年低点的势头。关注的几个港股也大都萎靡不振,这是个另一个形势的戴维斯双杀,汇率跌、估值跌、双杀，港股没有希望了。按理说：人民币贬值有利于A股啊！可A股今天也跌，涨的只有跌的家数8分之一，可谓一片惨淡。等等看吧。等到人民币到7.75到7.85之间。和港币同一价格时候，到时候把人民币和港币挂钩，汇率1：1等值，让香港和内地联系更紧密一些，顺便把美元将踢走，可能会出现一波戴维斯双击。只是不知道这个设想啥时候能实现。能不能成立还要看以后的走势。港股快手跌，美团也在跌、哔哩哔哩还是在跌。$快手-W(01024)$ 这市场熊市彻底深入了。以前人家说，港股恒生指数腾讯占比太低，所以导致恒指失真，最近几年腾讯终于占比扩大了，可是自从扩大了之后，反而熊途漫漫，又开始拖累恒指。这样的指数其实对市场反应远不如纳指和标普500，甚至不如道指，这是恒指一大弊端。恒生指数 (HSI)多数个股已经跌的比指数惨多了。不管是大盘股如腾讯阿里，还是小盘股如微盟、平安好医生。都是一片惨淡，惨不忍睹！远远比大盘跌幅多多了。就一些香港人喜欢的，号称存汇丰不如买汇丰，圣诞钟，买汇丰。以它为代表的银行股和和一些本地的如李嘉诚长江集团跌的稍微少一点。腾讯都已经腰斩了还多，这是2008年金融危机都没有出现的事情。不过腾讯今天传来好消息，说注销了2244万股，大概接近70个亿港币，这是个大事，意味着以后腾讯极有可能苹果化，成为像苹果一样的公司，在业务发展变缓以后，靠回购和派息来拉动公司股价。这未尝不是一件好事，自从苹果库克推出回购和派息以后。算上派息和回购，苹果股票回报率达到了8倍多。不知道腾讯会不会也这样的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f21e635f7661c71cc634332e395a1c1","width":"560","height":"240"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc4332cfc9851edc71c6ab20b9c126c0","width":"560","height":"240"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea33682bde5fb2db0cc13b1be51ac6f5","width":"560","height":"240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661237493","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668001408,"gmtCreate":1664278564704,"gmtModify":1664278567108,"author":{"id":"3564483904405629","authorId":"3564483904405629","name":"和旺旺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb87bd311c1faaf986c49a5493ee1a45","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564483904405629","authorIdStr":"3564483904405629"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668001408","repostId":"661224513","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":661224513,"gmtCreate":1663955444932,"gmtModify":1663955449462,"author":{"id":"3571292989058983","authorId":"3571292989058983","name":"小韭儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fcdb6ed1619b21858f8dcc933468150","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571292989058983","authorIdStr":"3571292989058983"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>最近真的忙到起飞了，市场波动太大，不太适合普通人贸贸然参与，但像特斯拉这种大票，我说过，多空趋势都很明显。无论什么时候参与都有机会。三百以下的特斯拉还是很便宜的，当然如果能捡到更便宜的那真是太划算的长期投资了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><v-v 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本文仅为个人投资思考记录，不构成任何投资建议，格局不同，立场不同，仅供参考。 就在一年多以前，在全球牛市的衬托下，国内基金振臂高呼跨过香江争夺定价权，腾讯连续日内10%的涨幅拉升，股价一度接近750港币，当时的口号是1000港币不是梦，不是我在这瞎吹，我当时还买了800港币的涡轮，当时觉得突破1000不算啥事。随后没几天就开始掉转形式向下，开启了无限的下跌，绵延至今。从月线可以看出，这一路没有特别暴力的反弹。 目前腾讯股价的下跌主要几个原因，最最主要的其实是大股东的减持，港股的流动性虽然 很差，但是以腾讯的声望，还是有很多的资金在不断抄底，但是一旦有人开始稳定持续的减持，对股价的影响那就容易倾斜，在大股东减持之前，其实股价本就处于弱平衡之下，腾讯目前每天也是在稳定回购，回购金额约占当日成交金额的十分之一以下，目前无法看到大股东每日减持明细，因为每减持1%的股份才会发布一次减持公告，上次发布是9.8日的时候，当时持股降到了27.96%，下次公告是持股减持到27%以下的时候，即在减持9600w股，今天腾讯成交了1600w股，我没查到港股减持的规则，假设每天减持200w股，大约需要45多个交易日，上次大股东转入了1.9亿股，全部减持完大概需要100个交易日。 而且这是算术的角度看，从理性的角度看，大股东肯定想要卖个好价钱 ，不可能无脑卖出，所以股价跌得多了，卖出速度会变慢。这些股份大概率是要全部卖出的，基本上意味着未来大半年腾讯的股价基本上会承受非常大的压力，如果你不知道什么叫压力，最近一个月的走势就是压力。 大股东的抛售金额大概率是高于每天腾讯自身回购的金额，所以你可以将这个回购行为的价值","listText":"今天盘中腾讯股价再次跌2%,股价几乎创近4年新低，相比于之前跌破300港币无数人疾呼抄底，这次明显安静了很多，氛围感也没有了，毕竟上半年港股急跌以腾讯跌破300港币收尾。这次，又会怎么走？ 本文仅为个人投资思考记录，不构成任何投资建议，格局不同，立场不同，仅供参考。 就在一年多以前，在全球牛市的衬托下，国内基金振臂高呼跨过香江争夺定价权，腾讯连续日内10%的涨幅拉升，股价一度接近750港币，当时的口号是1000港币不是梦，不是我在这瞎吹，我当时还买了800港币的涡轮，当时觉得突破1000不算啥事。随后没几天就开始掉转形式向下，开启了无限的下跌，绵延至今。从月线可以看出，这一路没有特别暴力的反弹。 目前腾讯股价的下跌主要几个原因，最最主要的其实是大股东的减持，港股的流动性虽然 很差，但是以腾讯的声望，还是有很多的资金在不断抄底，但是一旦有人开始稳定持续的减持，对股价的影响那就容易倾斜，在大股东减持之前，其实股价本就处于弱平衡之下，腾讯目前每天也是在稳定回购，回购金额约占当日成交金额的十分之一以下，目前无法看到大股东每日减持明细，因为每减持1%的股份才会发布一次减持公告，上次发布是9.8日的时候，当时持股降到了27.96%，下次公告是持股减持到27%以下的时候，即在减持9600w股，今天腾讯成交了1600w股，我没查到港股减持的规则，假设每天减持200w股，大约需要45多个交易日，上次大股东转入了1.9亿股，全部减持完大概需要100个交易日。 而且这是算术的角度看，从理性的角度看，大股东肯定想要卖个好价钱 ，不可能无脑卖出，所以股价跌得多了，卖出速度会变慢。这些股份大概率是要全部卖出的，基本上意味着未来大半年腾讯的股价基本上会承受非常大的压力，如果你不知道什么叫压力，最近一个月的走势就是压力。 大股东的抛售金额大概率是高于每天腾讯自身回购的金额，所以你可以将这个回购行为的价值","text":"今天盘中腾讯股价再次跌2%,股价几乎创近4年新低，相比于之前跌破300港币无数人疾呼抄底，这次明显安静了很多，氛围感也没有了，毕竟上半年港股急跌以腾讯跌破300港币收尾。这次，又会怎么走？ 本文仅为个人投资思考记录，不构成任何投资建议，格局不同，立场不同，仅供参考。 就在一年多以前，在全球牛市的衬托下，国内基金振臂高呼跨过香江争夺定价权，腾讯连续日内10%的涨幅拉升，股价一度接近750港币，当时的口号是1000港币不是梦，不是我在这瞎吹，我当时还买了800港币的涡轮，当时觉得突破1000不算啥事。随后没几天就开始掉转形式向下，开启了无限的下跌，绵延至今。从月线可以看出，这一路没有特别暴力的反弹。 目前腾讯股价的下跌主要几个原因，最最主要的其实是大股东的减持，港股的流动性虽然 很差，但是以腾讯的声望，还是有很多的资金在不断抄底，但是一旦有人开始稳定持续的减持，对股价的影响那就容易倾斜，在大股东减持之前，其实股价本就处于弱平衡之下，腾讯目前每天也是在稳定回购，回购金额约占当日成交金额的十分之一以下，目前无法看到大股东每日减持明细，因为每减持1%的股份才会发布一次减持公告，上次发布是9.8日的时候，当时持股降到了27.96%，下次公告是持股减持到27%以下的时候，即在减持9600w股，今天腾讯成交了1600w股，我没查到港股减持的规则，假设每天减持200w股，大约需要45多个交易日，上次大股东转入了1.9亿股，全部减持完大概需要100个交易日。 而且这是算术的角度看，从理性的角度看，大股东肯定想要卖个好价钱 ，不可能无脑卖出，所以股价跌得多了，卖出速度会变慢。这些股份大概率是要全部卖出的，基本上意味着未来大半年腾讯的股价基本上会承受非常大的压力，如果你不知道什么叫压力，最近一个月的走势就是压力。 大股东的抛售金额大概率是高于每天腾讯自身回购的金额，所以你可以将这个回购行为的价值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661121977","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":661420776,"gmtCreate":1664194119895,"gmtModify":1664194120947,"author":{"id":"3564483904405629","authorId":"3564483904405629","name":"和旺旺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb87bd311c1faaf986c49a5493ee1a45","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564483904405629","authorIdStr":"3564483904405629"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661420776","repostId":"661331025","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":661331025,"gmtCreate":1663686076167,"gmtModify":1663686096107,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"82%概率加息75基点，然而多空战况依然焦灼","htmlText":"美联储利率预测： 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target=\"_blank\">利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？</a> 说一下昨天的大单。大盘ETF出现put大单平仓，前期止盈，非常稳重的操作。主要的大单交易还是那几个方向：价差，call， put。 其中价差是重仓策略，put和call都是相对轻仓，可能是觉得赔率合适。反弹的话空间很大，而下跌就会去测试6月低点。 目前很多个股走势和大盘偏离，个股可以作为参考，但我认为现在大盘方向&gt;个股，具体可以参考周一文章：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/661027608\" target=\"_blank\">1亿put大单看跌！市场尚未就加息路径达成明确共识</a>。机构都还没有明确的方向性，我们随大流做跨式或者价差就可以了。 个股期权依然是以跨式为主，但半导体，金融和医药权重股有call大单。 其中特斯拉有好几个近期看涨大单，如图 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020221007%20330.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20221007 330.0 CALL$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020220930%20320.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20220930 320.0 CALL$</a> TSM，JNJ和JPM大单看","text":"美联储利率预测： 9月加息75点到300-325概率82%，100点概率18%。 11月22日加息75点到375-400概率60.4%，50点是27.6%，100点是11.9%。 12月14日加息50点到425-450概率46.7%。 利率决议当天走势可以参考：利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？ 说一下昨天的大单。大盘ETF出现put大单平仓，前期止盈，非常稳重的操作。主要的大单交易还是那几个方向：价差，call， put。 其中价差是重仓策略，put和call都是相对轻仓，可能是觉得赔率合适。反弹的话空间很大，而下跌就会去测试6月低点。 目前很多个股走势和大盘偏离，个股可以作为参考，但我认为现在大盘方向>个股，具体可以参考周一文章：1亿put大单看跌！市场尚未就加息路径达成明确共识。机构都还没有明确的方向性，我们随大流做跨式或者价差就可以了。 个股期权依然是以跨式为主，但半导体，金融和医药权重股有call大单。 其中特斯拉有好几个近期看涨大单，如图 $TSLA 20221007 330.0 CALL$ $TSLA 20220930 320.0 CALL$ 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