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2021-11-25

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2021-08-05

Interesting

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2021-06-28

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2021-06-27

Nio

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-06-26

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2021-06-25

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Most of Chinese stocks rose in premarket trading<blockquote>大多数中国股市在盘前交易中上涨</blockquote>

2021-06-24

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2021-06-23

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2021-06-22

comments

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-20

Latest

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2021-06-19

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2021-06-18

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Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-06-17

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2021-06-15

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What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议有何期待</blockquote>

2021-06-14

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2021-06-13

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Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>

2021-06-12

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2021-06-09

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2021-06-08

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08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125741869,"gmtCreate":1624699128851,"gmtModify":1631889675749,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125741869","repostId":"1108941456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122868521,"gmtCreate":1624611298763,"gmtModify":1631889675766,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122868521","repostId":"1109009652","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109009652","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624610253,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109009652?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Most of Chinese stocks rose in premarket trading<blockquote>大多数中国股市在盘前交易中上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109009652","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 25) Most of Chinese stocks rose in premarket trading.\n\nChinese education stocks rose again in ","content":"<p>(June 25)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月25日）中概股盘前交易多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3962135ab024104866f387b01bd1125f\" tg-width=\"305\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chinese&nbsp;education&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;again&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>中国教育股在盘前交易中再次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bbb2e8cd94abb6b5b8f0215bebc6b7f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> EV&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;gained&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86c865b6c76a3fb3190778b90ea6deaf\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMost of Chinese stocks rose in premarket trading<blockquote>大多数中国股市在盘前交易中上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-25 16:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 25)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月25日）中概股盘前交易多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3962135ab024104866f387b01bd1125f\" tg-width=\"305\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chinese&nbsp;education&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;again&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>中国教育股在盘前交易中再次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bbb2e8cd94abb6b5b8f0215bebc6b7f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> EV&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;gained&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86c865b6c76a3fb3190778b90ea6deaf\" tg-width=\"304\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109009652","content_text":"(June 25) Most of Chinese stocks rose in premarket trading.\n\nChinese education stocks rose again in premarket trading.\n\nEV stocks gained in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128809627,"gmtCreate":1624508625369,"gmtModify":1631889675777,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128809627","repostId":"2145156570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123813070,"gmtCreate":1624415272490,"gmtModify":1631889675783,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123813070","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120448253,"gmtCreate":1624334546672,"gmtModify":1631889675815,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comments","listText":"comments","text":"comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120448253","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167984812,"gmtCreate":1624242738636,"gmtModify":1631889675814,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167984812","repostId":"2145707918","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164016779,"gmtCreate":1624161267791,"gmtModify":1631889675825,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164016779","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165389000,"gmtCreate":1624095673700,"gmtModify":1631892196932,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165389000","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166363214,"gmtCreate":1623992161038,"gmtModify":1631892196934,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments please","listText":"Comments please","text":"Comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166363214","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163738112,"gmtCreate":1623893051936,"gmtModify":1631892196937,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments please","listText":"Comments please","text":"Comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163738112","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187927661,"gmtCreate":1623736267553,"gmtModify":1631892196945,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments please","listText":"Comments please","text":"Comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187927661","repostId":"1138219989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138219989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623650085,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138219989?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议有何期待</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138219989","media":"Barrons","summary":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again a","content":"<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会下周举行例行政策会议，分析师和投资者应该再次打破尼克松时代的陈词滥调，关注他们的言论，而不是他们的行动。每个人都想知道的是，该小组是否最终开始讨论放弃其超级宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> We all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).</p><p><blockquote>我们都知道，FOMC不会在其大规模证券购买方面采取任何实质性措施，目前仍以每月1200亿美元的速度运行。至于其关键的联邦基金利率目标，则停留在0%至0.25%（尽管美联储管理的其他一些利率有可能进行技术调整，以解决货币市场上流动的数十亿过剩现金）。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted&nbsp;on the Fed’s website&nbsp;at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.</p><p><blockquote>我们将寻找FOMC的正式政策声明和该小组最新的经济预测摘要中的内容，其中将包括委员会成员对国内生产总值、通胀和失业率等关键经济指标的猜测。最有可能的是，当该消息于下午2点发布在美联储网站上时。周三东部夏令时，大多数人可能会直接关注FOMC对联邦基金利率的猜测，特别是何时最终有望从接近零的利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> The “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.</p><p><blockquote>“点阵图”——或FOMC成员共识猜测的图表——将首次加息一直推迟到2023年之后。这似乎是一个非常长期的预测，正如约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）著名指出的那样，从长远来看，我们都死了。一些美联储观察人士，例如摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利(Michael Feroli)，认为这些点表明2023年的经济起飞。</blockquote></p><p> The markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for&nbsp;Natixis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经预计到2023年联邦基金将加息一次或多次。但在之前讨论的长期债券收益率下滑的同时，利率期货市场实际上已经消化了其中一次短期加息。此外，Natixis分析师表示，衍生品市场目前预计联邦基金利率将达到2%以下的峰值，比今年早些时候的定价低约0.4个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Long before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.</p><p><blockquote>早在加息之前，美联储就将开始通过放慢目前的证券购买步伐来减少宽松政策，其中包括每月800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券。根据美联储上周发布的新数据，美联储和其他央行创造的数万亿美元对提振资产价值大有帮助，第一季度资产价值增加了5万亿美元，达到136.9万亿美元。其中包括家庭持有的股票价值增加3.2万亿美元，房地产持有量增加9680亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.</p><p><blockquote>美联储宽松政策减少的关键标准是货币当局是否认为在实现他们认为的最大就业方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”，这可能是一个故意模糊的标准。</blockquote></p><p> But the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed&nbsp;a record 9.3 million unfilled openings&nbsp;in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.</p><p><blockquote>但就业人数的增长似乎既受到劳动力供应的限制，也受到企业招聘意愿的限制。最新的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（Jolts）显示，4月份有创纪录的930万个职位空缺。此外，当月有38.4万人离职，自愿离职人数达到创纪录的400万人。</blockquote></p><p> Anecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.</p><p><blockquote>轶事证据，包括美联储为即将召开的会议准备的经济状况褐皮书总结中的一些证据，表明由于慷慨的失业补偿，雇主没有找到足够的工人。对于经济学等社会科学来说，不同寻常的是，随着25个州提前结束每周额外支付300美元的费用，将会有一个实时实验来检验这一假设。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons在一份研究报告中写道，这25个州约占所有失业工人的四分之一。他们估计，终止额外的失业救济金可能会在未来几个月内增加大约200万人的就业机会。在其余州的额外失业保险到期后，9月和10月应该会出现另一次井喷式增长；学校重新开放——为一些潜在工人，尤其是女性提供免费日托；他们补充说，许多上班族回到了办公桌前。</blockquote></p><p> At that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.</p><p><blockquote>到那时，美联储可能会开始谈论实际减少大规模证券购买。鉴于美联储在2013年放缓债券购买时市场引发的“缩减恐慌”，本届美联储将希望披露其计划如何、何时以及以多快的速度放缓注入潘趣酒碗。这就是我们本周要听的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议有何期待</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议有何期待</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 13:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会下周举行例行政策会议，分析师和投资者应该再次打破尼克松时代的陈词滥调，关注他们的言论，而不是他们的行动。每个人都想知道的是，该小组是否最终开始讨论放弃其超级宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> We all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).</p><p><blockquote>我们都知道，FOMC不会在其大规模证券购买方面采取任何实质性措施，目前仍以每月1200亿美元的速度运行。至于其关键的联邦基金利率目标，则停留在0%至0.25%（尽管美联储管理的其他一些利率有可能进行技术调整，以解决货币市场上流动的数十亿过剩现金）。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted&nbsp;on the Fed’s website&nbsp;at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.</p><p><blockquote>我们将寻找FOMC的正式政策声明和该小组最新的经济预测摘要中的内容，其中将包括委员会成员对国内生产总值、通胀和失业率等关键经济指标的猜测。最有可能的是，当该消息于下午2点发布在美联储网站上时。周三东部夏令时，大多数人可能会直接关注FOMC对联邦基金利率的猜测，特别是何时最终有望从接近零的利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> The “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.</p><p><blockquote>“点阵图”——或FOMC成员共识猜测的图表——将首次加息一直推迟到2023年之后。这似乎是一个非常长期的预测，正如约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）著名指出的那样，从长远来看，我们都死了。一些美联储观察人士，例如摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利(Michael Feroli)，认为这些点表明2023年的经济起飞。</blockquote></p><p> The markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for&nbsp;Natixis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经预计到2023年联邦基金将加息一次或多次。但在之前讨论的长期债券收益率下滑的同时，利率期货市场实际上已经消化了其中一次短期加息。此外，Natixis分析师表示，衍生品市场目前预计联邦基金利率将达到2%以下的峰值，比今年早些时候的定价低约0.4个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Long before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.</p><p><blockquote>早在加息之前，美联储就将开始通过放慢目前的证券购买步伐来减少宽松政策，其中包括每月800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券。根据美联储上周发布的新数据，美联储和其他央行创造的数万亿美元对提振资产价值大有帮助，第一季度资产价值增加了5万亿美元，达到136.9万亿美元。其中包括家庭持有的股票价值增加3.2万亿美元，房地产持有量增加9680亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.</p><p><blockquote>美联储宽松政策减少的关键标准是货币当局是否认为在实现他们认为的最大就业方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”，这可能是一个故意模糊的标准。</blockquote></p><p> But the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed&nbsp;a record 9.3 million unfilled openings&nbsp;in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.</p><p><blockquote>但就业人数的增长似乎既受到劳动力供应的限制，也受到企业招聘意愿的限制。最新的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（Jolts）显示，4月份有创纪录的930万个职位空缺。此外，当月有38.4万人离职，自愿离职人数达到创纪录的400万人。</blockquote></p><p> Anecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.</p><p><blockquote>轶事证据，包括美联储为即将召开的会议准备的经济状况褐皮书总结中的一些证据，表明由于慷慨的失业补偿，雇主没有找到足够的工人。对于经济学等社会科学来说，不同寻常的是，随着25个州提前结束每周额外支付300美元的费用，将会有一个实时实验来检验这一假设。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons在一份研究报告中写道，这25个州约占所有失业工人的四分之一。他们估计，终止额外的失业救济金可能会在未来几个月内增加大约200万人的就业机会。在其余州的额外失业保险到期后，9月和10月应该会出现另一次井喷式增长；学校重新开放——为一些潜在工人，尤其是女性提供免费日托；他们补充说，许多上班族回到了办公桌前。</blockquote></p><p> At that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.</p><p><blockquote>到那时，美联储可能会开始谈论实际减少大规模证券购买。鉴于美联储在2013年放缓债券购买时市场引发的“缩减恐慌”，本届美联储将希望披露其计划如何、何时以及以多快的速度放缓注入潘趣酒碗。这就是我们本周要听的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138219989","content_text":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.\nWe all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).\nWe’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted on the Fed’s website at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.\nThe “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.\nThe markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for Natixis.\nLong before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.\nThe key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.\nBut the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed a record 9.3 million unfilled openings in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.\nAnecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.\nJefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.\nAt that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185592427,"gmtCreate":1623658640069,"gmtModify":1631892196946,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments please","listText":"Comments please","text":"Comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185592427","repostId":"1149751729","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182136949,"gmtCreate":1623557119681,"gmtModify":1631892196951,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments please","listText":"Comments please","text":"Comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182136949","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDCE":"PDC Energy","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDCE":0.9,"BBBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188723532,"gmtCreate":1623462703726,"gmtModify":1631892196951,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566183313072109","authorIdStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments please","listText":"Comments please","text":"Comments 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please","listText":"Comments please","text":"Comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163738112","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192906538,"gmtCreate":1621134283724,"gmtModify":1634193851894,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment pls","listText":"Comment pls","text":"Comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192906538","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163454382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621004581,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163454382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163454382","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million. First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinat","content":"<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在再次融资后，AMC投资者有理由更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的股价上涨是在该公司宣布筹集4.28亿美元后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）发布了一份关于当前健康和安全协议的新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持身体距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这将使电影院能够满负荷开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影顾客的理想目的地。同样在昨天，<b>迪斯尼</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）宣布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是积极的，但迪士尼也报告称其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体订阅量的下降对影院业务来说可能是一个积极的信号。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，以及疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在不戴口罩的情况下与人群聚集在室内，剧院的上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动。在一年多的时间里，电影院可能会成为人们最喜欢的目的地。在另一次融资之后，AMC投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的未来之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在再次融资后，AMC投资者有理由更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的股价上涨是在该公司宣布筹集4.28亿美元后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）发布了一份关于当前健康和安全协议的新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持身体距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这将使电影院能够满负荷开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影顾客的理想目的地。同样在昨天，<b>迪斯尼</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）宣布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是积极的，但迪士尼也报告称其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体订阅量的下降对影院业务来说可能是一个积极的信号。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，以及疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在不戴口罩的情况下与人群聚集在室内，剧院的上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动。在一年多的时间里，电影院可能会成为人们最喜欢的目的地。在另一次融资之后，AMC投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的未来之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163454382","content_text":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million\nFirst, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.\nThis should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.\nNow what\nLower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.\nVaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165389000,"gmtCreate":1624095673700,"gmtModify":1631892196932,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165389000","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112104134,"gmtCreate":1622854268128,"gmtModify":1631893471630,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment please","listText":"Comment please","text":"Comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112104134","repostId":"1198786025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116180474,"gmtCreate":1622780463698,"gmtModify":1631893471642,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments please","listText":"Comments please","text":"Comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116180474","repostId":"2140026421","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133641431,"gmtCreate":1621746027923,"gmtModify":1631893471732,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments pls","listText":"Comments pls","text":"Comments pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133641431","repostId":"2137990425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123813070,"gmtCreate":1624415272490,"gmtModify":1631889675783,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123813070","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117076707,"gmtCreate":1623111878709,"gmtModify":1631892196956,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments please","listText":"Comments please","text":"Comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117076707","repostId":"2141342255","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196810491,"gmtCreate":1621041340813,"gmtModify":1634194390118,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help&nbsp;comment","listText":"Help&nbsp;comment","text":"Help comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196810491","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163454382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621004581,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163454382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163454382","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million. First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinat","content":"<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在再次融资后，AMC投资者有理由更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的股价上涨是在该公司宣布筹集4.28亿美元后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）发布了一份关于当前健康和安全协议的新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持身体距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这将使电影院能够满负荷开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影顾客的理想目的地。同样在昨天，<b>迪斯尼</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）宣布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是积极的，但迪士尼也报告称其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体订阅量的下降对影院业务来说可能是一个积极的信号。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，以及疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在不戴口罩的情况下与人群聚集在室内，剧院的上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动。在一年多的时间里，电影院可能会成为人们最喜欢的目的地。在另一次融资之后，AMC投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的未来之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday<blockquote>为什么AMC院线股价周五再次上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>  <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在再次融资后，AMC投资者有理由更加乐观。</b><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p><p><blockquote>一天后<b>AMC院线控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p><p><blockquote>昨天的股价上涨是在该公司宣布筹集4.28亿美元后发生的</blockquote></p><p> First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）发布了一份关于当前健康和安全协议的新声明，称完全接种疫苗的人可以在不戴口罩或保持身体距离的情况下恢复活动，包括在室内。</blockquote></p><p> This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p><p><blockquote>这将使电影院能够满负荷开放，并成为接种疫苗的电影顾客的理想目的地。同样在昨天，<b>迪斯尼</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）宣布了季度收益报告，首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克指出“我们工作室的产量有所增加”。虽然这对影院运营商来说是积极的，但迪士尼也报告称其流媒体服务的用户增长令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p><p><blockquote>流媒体订阅量的下降对影院业务来说可能是一个积极的信号。随着疫苗接种的继续推广，以及疾病预防控制中心现在正式批准在不戴口罩的情况下与人群聚集在室内，剧院的上座率可能会很快恢复。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗接种将促使人们回到户外活动。在一年多的时间里，电影院可能会成为人们最喜欢的目的地。在另一次融资之后，AMC投资者可能认为这家公司终于有了一条充满希望的未来之路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163454382","content_text":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million\nFirst, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.\nThis should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.\nNow what\nLower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.\nVaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190930314,"gmtCreate":1620566669238,"gmtModify":1634198005160,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190930314","repostId":"1122089368","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122089368","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620457397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122089368?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122089368","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are t","content":"<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的东西。股票估值是自2000年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来的最低利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是一个驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示利率至少在两年内不会改变。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀——即实际收益率深度为负——这是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取行动是为了应对一场疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候可能造成的损害甚至比2007-09年的金融危机还要大。然而，这在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会削弱利率如此之低的原因，威胁市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>与现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一起担任美联储理事的哈佛大学经济学家杰里米·斯坦表示：“假设利率将长期处于低位，股市的定价至少是完美的。”“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，‘一切都很好，我们不急于加息。’但虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但这是完全有可能的。我们将有几个季度的通胀热点数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持极低水平的情况下，股票估值才是合理的，因此如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通胀并且债券收益率上升1至1.5个百分点，股票如何重新定价。“资产价格可能会出现严重调整。”</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前也来过这里。20世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司几近崩溃，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为自己的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）会损害他们低失业率和通胀的主要目标，而且比让泡沫自行破灭造成的危害更大。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告称，资产“估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4月28日，鲍威尔承认市场看起来“有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一：“我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种有很大关系和经济重新开放。”但他没有暗示美联储将缩减刺激措施：“经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走。”劳工部周五的一份报告显示，4月份创造的就业机会远低于华尔街的预期，这突显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储当时将利率降至接近零的水平并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正面临强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储2%的目标以下。人口老龄化等深层次力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，一些人将这种组合称为“长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机还要严重。但两个月后，随着限制放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的更早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币的水龙头仍然敞开着。去年5月，民主党人首次提出额外3万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降6%。实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党在赢得白宫和国会后，继续推进同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场正常运转，它延长了该计划，同时将理由转向保持低债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于2%之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回到2%，而且更高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都稳定在2%。为此，它承诺在充分就业恢复、通胀率达到2%并走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在2024年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛节</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然盈利预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据FactSet的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的22倍，这一水平仅在2000年互联网繁荣的顶峰时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。根据彭博巴克莱的数据，投资者愿意以至少1995年以来的最低收益率以及自2007年以来与安全国债的最窄利差购买垃圾级公司的债券。经通胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更加合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策完全按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这有利于利润、住房需求和企业信誉；和风险偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率不再足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司估值较高。这些估值并不是优越的现金流或利润前景的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币，传统估值也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币作为交易媒介和价值储存手段。“加密货币有可能像互联网一样具有革命性并被广泛采用，”加密货币交易所Coinbase GlobalInc.首次公开募股的招股说明书称，其语言让人想起二十多年前与互联网相关的IPO。根据信息服务机构CoinDesk的数据，截至4月29日，加密货币的价值超过2万亿美元，大致相当于流通中的所有美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在1987年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20世纪90年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，而在21世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。今天的等价物是零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行组成的财团国际清算银行最近的一份报告，此类投资者越来越多地影响整体市场的走向。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，跟踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量却在攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基础业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票，例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测经常被归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激则不然。金融研究公司Bianco Research的负责人Jim Bianco表示，随着财政部发放1400美元的刺激支票，3月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“你用支票做的第一件事就是将其存入你的账户，到2021年，这就是你的经纪账户，”比安科先生说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此：高价股票最终可能会赚取必要的利润来证明当今的估值是合理的，尤其是在经济目前处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机领域可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在，许多竞争对手也声称要做同样的事情。特斯拉公司曾经是你唯一可以购买来押注电动汽车的股票；现在有蔚来、NikolaCorp.和FiskerInc.，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是对经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。4月份的就业令人失望提醒人们经济前景仍然多么不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能发生。不能排除与一些隐藏的脆弱性相关的金融危机。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，而抵押贷款承销又如此紧张，以至于类似于2007-09年始于抵押贷款违约的金融危机似乎很遥远。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，其价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷方造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到他们的生存，也没有引发对处境相似的公司的蔓延。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿尔奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就剩下通货膨胀了。由于半导体、木材和工人的短缺都给价格和成本带来了上行压力，对通胀的担忧现在很普遍。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，常规债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的通胀率平均约为2.5%。这很难是20世纪70年代的重演，也符合美联储长期平均通胀率2%的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显打破过去十年低于2%的区间。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略高将导致美联储将短期利率也略高，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自20世纪90年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往朝着相反的方向波动。这是因为当通胀不是问题时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了抵御股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为一个问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，其收益率就会上升。前美联储经济学家、现就职于对冲基金D.E.的布莱恩·萨克(Brian Sack)表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股债相关性开始消失。肖公司。他将此部分归因于通胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融领域，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀再也不会产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地使经济摆脱了过去十年的模式，这种自满可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的东西。股票估值是自2000年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来的最低利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是一个驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示利率至少在两年内不会改变。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀——即实际收益率深度为负——这是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取行动是为了应对一场疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候可能造成的损害甚至比2007-09年的金融危机还要大。然而，这在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会削弱利率如此之低的原因，威胁市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>与现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一起担任美联储理事的哈佛大学经济学家杰里米·斯坦表示：“假设利率将长期处于低位，股市的定价至少是完美的。”“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，‘一切都很好，我们不急于加息。’但虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但这是完全有可能的。我们将有几个季度的通胀热点数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持极低水平的情况下，股票估值才是合理的，因此如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通胀并且债券收益率上升1至1.5个百分点，股票如何重新定价。“资产价格可能会出现严重调整。”</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前也来过这里。20世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司几近崩溃，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为自己的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）会损害他们低失业率和通胀的主要目标，而且比让泡沫自行破灭造成的危害更大。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告称，资产“估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4月28日，鲍威尔承认市场看起来“有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一：“我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种有很大关系和经济重新开放。”但他没有暗示美联储将缩减刺激措施：“经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走。”劳工部周五的一份报告显示，4月份创造的就业机会远低于华尔街的预期，这突显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储当时将利率降至接近零的水平并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正面临强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储2%的目标以下。人口老龄化等深层次力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，一些人将这种组合称为“长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机还要严重。但两个月后，随着限制放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的更早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币的水龙头仍然敞开着。去年5月，民主党人首次提出额外3万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降6%。实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党在赢得白宫和国会后，继续推进同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场正常运转，它延长了该计划，同时将理由转向保持低债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于2%之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回到2%，而且更高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都稳定在2%。为此，它承诺在充分就业恢复、通胀率达到2%并走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在2024年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛节</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然盈利预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据FactSet的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的22倍，这一水平仅在2000年互联网繁荣的顶峰时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。根据彭博巴克莱的数据，投资者愿意以至少1995年以来的最低收益率以及自2007年以来与安全国债的最窄利差购买垃圾级公司的债券。经通胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更加合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策完全按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这有利于利润、住房需求和企业信誉；和风险偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率不再足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司估值较高。这些估值并不是优越的现金流或利润前景的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币，传统估值也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币作为交易媒介和价值储存手段。“加密货币有可能像互联网一样具有革命性并被广泛采用，”加密货币交易所Coinbase GlobalInc.首次公开募股的招股说明书称，其语言让人想起二十多年前与互联网相关的IPO。根据信息服务机构CoinDesk的数据，截至4月29日，加密货币的价值超过2万亿美元，大致相当于流通中的所有美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在1987年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20世纪90年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，而在21世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。今天的等价物是零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行组成的财团国际清算银行最近的一份报告，此类投资者越来越多地影响整体市场的走向。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，跟踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量却在攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基础业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票，例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测经常被归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激则不然。金融研究公司Bianco Research的负责人Jim Bianco表示，随着财政部发放1400美元的刺激支票，3月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“你用支票做的第一件事就是将其存入你的账户，到2021年，这就是你的经纪账户，”比安科先生说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此：高价股票最终可能会赚取必要的利润来证明当今的估值是合理的，尤其是在经济目前处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机领域可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在，许多竞争对手也声称要做同样的事情。特斯拉公司曾经是你唯一可以购买来押注电动汽车的股票；现在有蔚来、NikolaCorp.和FiskerInc.，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是对经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。4月份的就业令人失望提醒人们经济前景仍然多么不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能发生。不能排除与一些隐藏的脆弱性相关的金融危机。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，而抵押贷款承销又如此紧张，以至于类似于2007-09年始于抵押贷款违约的金融危机似乎很遥远。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，其价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷方造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到他们的生存，也没有引发对处境相似的公司的蔓延。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿尔奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就剩下通货膨胀了。由于半导体、木材和工人的短缺都给价格和成本带来了上行压力，对通胀的担忧现在很普遍。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，常规债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的通胀率平均约为2.5%。这很难是20世纪70年代的重演，也符合美联储长期平均通胀率2%的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显打破过去十年低于2%的区间。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略高将导致美联储将短期利率也略高，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自20世纪90年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往朝着相反的方向波动。这是因为当通胀不是问题时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了抵御股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为一个问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，其收益率就会上升。前美联储经济学家、现就职于对冲基金D.E.的布莱恩·萨克(Brian Sack)表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股债相关性开始消失。肖公司。他将此部分归因于通胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融领域，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀再也不会产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地使经济摆脱了过去十年的模式，这种自满可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122089368","content_text":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”‘A bit frothy’The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.Running of the bullsThis injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.Facing the futureIt’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106677630,"gmtCreate":1620118540520,"gmtModify":1634207679038,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments please","listText":"Comments please","text":"Comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106677630","repostId":"1141446343","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141446343","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620108260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141446343?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 14:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bill and Melinda Gates are getting divorced. Here are some stocks they owned<blockquote>比尔和梅林达·盖茨要离婚了。以下是他们拥有的一些股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141446343","media":"seeking alpha","summary":"Though the pairin a statement assuredthe public that they will continue to work together at their foundation despiteending their marriage, the news about the Microsoftfounder and his partner of 27 years may send shockwaves across their projects.In the latest13F filingfrom the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust for the period ended 12/31/20, top holdings by value in descending order included Berkshire Hathaway, Waste Management, Caterpillar, Canadian National, Walmart, EcoLab, Crown Castle, ","content":"<p><ul><li>Though the pairin a statement assuredthe public that they will continue to work together at their foundation despiteending their marriage, the news about the Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)founder and his partner of 27 years may send shockwaves across their projects.</li><li>In the latest13F filingfrom the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust for the period ended 12/31/20, top holdings by value in descending order included Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.B), Waste Management(NYSE:WM), Caterpillar(NYSE:CAT), Canadian National(NYSE:CNI), Walmart(NYSE:WMT), EcoLab(NYSE:ECL), Crown Castle(NYSE:CCI), Fedex(NYSE:FDX)and UPS(NYSE:UPS).</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> stocks in which the foundation has a large stake (more than 10% of shares outstanding) included Schrodinger(NASDAQ:SDGR)and Coca-Cola Femsa(NYSE:KOF).</li><li>Most of the other holdings were below $1 billion in market value and their ownership consisted of less than 3% of shares outstanding in the associated stock.</li><li>The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, in their latestquarterly filing, disclosed ownership stakes in Amyris(NASDAQ:AMRS), Vir Biotech(NASDAQ:VIR), BionTech(NASDAQ:BNTX), Curevac(NASDAQ:CVAC)and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCEL\">Atreca</a>(NASDAQ:BCEL).</li><li>Our readers may recall when the world's richest person, Jeff Bezos, and his partner Mackenzie Scottcalled it quits two years ago.&nbsp;This is how their wealth ended upsplit between them.</li></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管这对夫妇在一份声明中向公众保证，尽管结束了婚姻，他们仍将继续在基金会合作，但有关微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）创始人和他27年的合作伙伴的消息可能会给他们的项目带来冲击波。</li><li>在比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会信托基金截至2020年12月31日的最新13F文件中，按价值降序排列的最大持股包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(NYSE：BRK.B)、废物管理公司(NYSE：WM)、卡特彼勒(NYSE：CAT)、加拿大国家航空公司(NYSE：CNI)、沃尔玛(NYSE：WMT)、艺康(NYSE：ECL)、皇冠城堡(NYSE：CCI)、联邦快递(NYSE：FDX)和UPS(NYSE：UPS)。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>该基金会持有大量股份（超过已发行股票的10%）的股票包括薛定谔（纳斯达克股票代码：SDGR）和可口可乐Femsa（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KOF）。</li><li>大多数其他持股的市值低于10亿美元，其所有权仅占相关股票已发行股份的不到3%。</li><li>比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会在最新的季度文件中披露了Amyris（纳斯达克：AMRS）、Vir Biotech（纳斯达克：VIR）、BionTech（纳斯达克：BNTX）、Curevac（纳斯达克：CVAC）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCEL\">阿特雷卡</a>（纳斯达克：BCEL）。</li><li>我们的读者可能还记得两年前世界首富杰夫·贝索斯和他的合伙人麦肯兹·斯科特宣布分手的时候。他们的财富就是这样在他们之间分配的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bill and Melinda Gates are getting divorced. Here are some stocks they owned<blockquote>比尔和梅林达·盖茨要离婚了。以下是他们拥有的一些股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBill and Melinda Gates are getting divorced. Here are some stocks they owned<blockquote>比尔和梅林达·盖茨要离婚了。以下是他们拥有的一些股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 14:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul><li>Though the pairin a statement assuredthe public that they will continue to work together at their foundation despiteending their marriage, the news about the Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)founder and his partner of 27 years may send shockwaves across their projects.</li><li>In the latest13F filingfrom the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust for the period ended 12/31/20, top holdings by value in descending order included Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.B), Waste Management(NYSE:WM), Caterpillar(NYSE:CAT), Canadian National(NYSE:CNI), Walmart(NYSE:WMT), EcoLab(NYSE:ECL), Crown Castle(NYSE:CCI), Fedex(NYSE:FDX)and UPS(NYSE:UPS).</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> stocks in which the foundation has a large stake (more than 10% of shares outstanding) included Schrodinger(NASDAQ:SDGR)and Coca-Cola Femsa(NYSE:KOF).</li><li>Most of the other holdings were below $1 billion in market value and their ownership consisted of less than 3% of shares outstanding in the associated stock.</li><li>The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, in their latestquarterly filing, disclosed ownership stakes in Amyris(NASDAQ:AMRS), Vir Biotech(NASDAQ:VIR), BionTech(NASDAQ:BNTX), Curevac(NASDAQ:CVAC)and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCEL\">Atreca</a>(NASDAQ:BCEL).</li><li>Our readers may recall when the world's richest person, Jeff Bezos, and his partner Mackenzie Scottcalled it quits two years ago.&nbsp;This is how their wealth ended upsplit between them.</li></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管这对夫妇在一份声明中向公众保证，尽管结束了婚姻，他们仍将继续在基金会合作，但有关微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）创始人和他27年的合作伙伴的消息可能会给他们的项目带来冲击波。</li><li>在比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会信托基金截至2020年12月31日的最新13F文件中，按价值降序排列的最大持股包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(NYSE：BRK.B)、废物管理公司(NYSE：WM)、卡特彼勒(NYSE：CAT)、加拿大国家航空公司(NYSE：CNI)、沃尔玛(NYSE：WMT)、艺康(NYSE：ECL)、皇冠城堡(NYSE：CCI)、联邦快递(NYSE：FDX)和UPS(NYSE：UPS)。</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>该基金会持有大量股份（超过已发行股票的10%）的股票包括薛定谔（纳斯达克股票代码：SDGR）和可口可乐Femsa（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KOF）。</li><li>大多数其他持股的市值低于10亿美元，其所有权仅占相关股票已发行股份的不到3%。</li><li>比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会在最新的季度文件中披露了Amyris（纳斯达克：AMRS）、Vir Biotech（纳斯达克：VIR）、BionTech（纳斯达克：BNTX）、Curevac（纳斯达克：CVAC）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCEL\">阿特雷卡</a>（纳斯达克：BCEL）。</li><li>我们的读者可能还记得两年前世界首富杰夫·贝索斯和他的合伙人麦肯兹·斯科特宣布分手的时候。他们的财富就是这样在他们之间分配的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3689813-bill-and-melinda-gates-are-getting-divorced-here-are-some-stocks-they-owned\">seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","WM":"美国废物管理","SDGR":"Schrodinger Inc.","CVAC":"CureVac B.V.","AMRS":"阿米瑞斯","CNI":"加拿大国家铁路","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","VIR":"Vir Biotechnology, Inc.","CCI":"冠城","WCLD":"WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund","WMT":"沃尔玛","UPS":"联合包裹","FDX":"联邦快递","KOF":"可口可乐凡萨瓶装","CAT":"卡特彼勒"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3689813-bill-and-melinda-gates-are-getting-divorced-here-are-some-stocks-they-owned","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141446343","content_text":"Though the pairin a statement assuredthe public that they will continue to work together at their foundation despiteending their marriage, the news about the Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT)founder and his partner of 27 years may send shockwaves across their projects.In the latest13F filingfrom the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust for the period ended 12/31/20, top holdings by value in descending order included Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.B), Waste Management(NYSE:WM), Caterpillar(NYSE:CAT), Canadian National(NYSE:CNI), Walmart(NYSE:WMT), EcoLab(NYSE:ECL), Crown Castle(NYSE:CCI), Fedex(NYSE:FDX)and UPS(NYSE:UPS).Two stocks in which the foundation has a large stake (more than 10% of shares outstanding) included Schrodinger(NASDAQ:SDGR)and Coca-Cola Femsa(NYSE:KOF).Most of the other holdings were below $1 billion in market value and their ownership consisted of less than 3% of shares outstanding in the associated stock.The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, in their latestquarterly filing, disclosed ownership stakes in Amyris(NASDAQ:AMRS), Vir Biotech(NASDAQ:VIR), BionTech(NASDAQ:BNTX), Curevac(NASDAQ:CVAC)and Atreca(NASDAQ:BCEL).Our readers may recall when the world's richest person, Jeff Bezos, and his partner Mackenzie Scottcalled it quits two years ago. This is how their wealth ended upsplit between them.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"BNTX":0.9,"CAT":0.9,"CVAC":0.9,"SDGR":0.9,"WCLD":0.9,"WMT":0.9,"BCEL":0.9,"UPS":0.9,"KOF":0.9,"AMRS":0.9,"CCI":0.9,"WM":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"VIR":0.9,"CNI":0.9,"FDX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350831543,"gmtCreate":1616173923582,"gmtModify":1634526853694,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350831543","repostId":"1136440314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124283113,"gmtCreate":1624766999232,"gmtModify":1631889675736,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio","listText":"Nio","text":"Nio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124283113","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131953066,"gmtCreate":1621822740655,"gmtModify":1631893471718,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments","listText":"Comments","text":"Comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131953066","repostId":"1191258854","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191258854","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621818302,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191258854?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-24 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto Is Crashing: Is Now the Time to Invest?<blockquote>加密货币正在崩溃：现在是投资的时候吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191258854","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Should you buy when prices are lower?Cryptocurrency has always been volatile, but it's experienced q","content":"<p><b>Should you buy when prices are lower?</b>Cryptocurrency has always been volatile, but it's experienced quite the wild ride over the past few months. After shattering records and reaching staggeringly high prices, cryptocurrencies have taken a sharp turn for the worse.</p><p><blockquote><b>你应该在价格较低时购买吗？</b>加密货币一直不稳定，但在过去几个月里它经历了相当疯狂的旅程。在打破记录并达到惊人的高价后，加密货币急转直下。</blockquote></p><p><b>Bitcoin</b>(CRYPTO:BTC), which reached a high of around $65,000 per token last month, has fallen by more than 30% over the past 10 days, as of this writing. Other popular cryptocurrencies<b>Ethereum</b>(CRYPTO:ETH)and<b>Dogecoin</b>(CRYPTO:DOGE)are also down around 30% over the same time period.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b>（加密货币：BTC）上个月达到了每代币65,000美元左右的高点，截至撰写本文时，在过去10天内下跌了30%以上。其他流行的加密货币<b>以太币</b>（加密货币：ETH）和<b>狗狗币</b>(CRYPTO：DOGE)同期也下降了约30%。</blockquote></p><p>Sometimes, market crashes are beneficial to investors because they're an opportunity to buy stocks at bargain prices. If you've been eager to invest in cryptocurrencies but are hesitant about the sky-high prices, a crypto crash could make them more affordable. But does that mean you should invest?</p><p><blockquote>有时，市场崩盘对投资者有利，因为这是一个以低价购买股票的机会。如果您一直渴望投资加密货币，但对天价犹豫不决，那么加密货币崩溃可能会让它们变得更实惠。但这是否意味着你应该投资？</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a431fb4ba85bf22785c79c9d5e854fb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consider your tolerance for risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>考虑您的风险承受能力</b></blockquote></p><p>The latest crypto crash is further proof of this sector's volatility. Considering cryptocurrency's history, a 30% drop is fairly mild. Bitcoin, for example, has fallen by more 80% on three separate occasions since 2012, according to data from Visual Capitalist.</p><p><blockquote>最近的加密货币崩盘进一步证明了该行业的波动性。考虑到加密货币的历史，30%的跌幅相当温和。例如，根据Visual Capitalist的数据，自2012年以来，比特币的股价已三次下跌超过80%。</blockquote></p><p>This year alone, Bitcoin has already experienced several steep drops. So this recent crash is par for the course -- and there will likely be many more crashes like this in the future.</p><p><blockquote>仅今年，比特币就已经经历了几次大幅下跌。因此，最近的这次崩溃是意料之中的——未来可能会有更多这样的崩溃。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d201474a0a8330fe9548db7675270757\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Before you invest in cryptocurrency, think about whether you can tolerate this level of risk. Although Bitcoin has always managed to bounce back from its slumps, there's no guarantee it will always recover.</p><p><blockquote>在你投资加密货币之前，想想你是否能承受这种程度的风险。尽管比特币总是设法从低迷中反弹，但不能保证它总是会复苏。</blockquote></p><p>If you know you're going to lose sleep when your investments plummet overnight, crypto may not be the best investment for you. But if you have the stomach for this type of turbulence, you may have the right personality for investing in crypto.</p><p><blockquote>如果您知道当您的投资一夜之间暴跌时您会失眠，那么加密货币可能不是您的最佳投资。但如果你喜欢这种类型的动荡，你可能有投资加密货币的合适个性。</blockquote></p><p><b>Choose your crypto carefully</b></p><p><blockquote><b>仔细选择您的加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p>If you decide to invest in cryptocurrency, buying when prices are lower may be a wise move. Especially if you're investing in a higher-priced currency like Bitcoin, you can get more for your money when buying during a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>如果你决定投资加密货币，在价格较低时买入可能是明智之举。特别是如果您投资的是比特币等价格较高的货币，那么在经济低迷时期购买时，您可以获得更多收益。</blockquote></p><p>Just be sure you've done your research before you invest. The fact that a cryptocurrency is more affordable doesn't necessarily mean it's a smart investment, so consider all your options before you buy. The goal is to buy investments you can hold for the long term, so make sure you're choosing the right cryptocurrency for you.</p><p><blockquote>只要确保你在投资前已经做了调查。加密货币更实惠的事实并不一定意味着它是一项明智的投资，因此在购买之前请考虑您的所有选择。目标是购买您可以长期持有的投资，因此请确保您选择了适合您的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdae0dc3c25e26d6b12738f5eeb9a416\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin is the biggest name in the crypto space, and it's also the oldest cryptocurrency. This gives it a leg up on the competition. However, it's an energy-intensive cryptocurrency, which poses environmental concerns. In fact,<b>Tesla</b>CEO Elon Musk recently announced that the company wouldno longer accept Bitcoinas a form of payment because of its environmental impact.</p><p><blockquote>比特币是加密领域最大的名字，也是最古老的加密货币。这使其在竞争中占据优势。然而，它是一种能源密集型加密货币，会带来环境问题。事实上，<b>特斯拉</b>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克最近宣布，由于比特币对环境的影响，该公司将不再接受比特币作为一种支付形式。</blockquote></p><p>Ether is the second-most popular cryptocurrency, and it uses the popular blockchain Ethereum -- which is also the blockchain behind non-fungible tokens (NFTs) anddecentralized finance. Because the Ethereum blockchain has a variety of uses, that gives it an advantage. In addition, developers are currently working on Ethereum 2.0, which will be more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly.</p><p><blockquote>以太币是第二受欢迎的加密货币，它使用流行的区块链以太币，这也是不可替代代币(NFT)和去中心化金融背后的区块链。因为以太币区块链有多种用途，这给了它一个优势。此外，目前开发商正在研究以太币2.0，它将更加节能环保。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin is one of theriskiest cryptocurrencies, and buying this particular token is more similar to gambling than true investing. If you do choose to go this route, be sure you make this decision carefully.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币是风险最大的加密货币之一，购买这种特殊的代币更像是赌博，而不是真正的投资。如果你选择走这条路，一定要仔细做决定。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless of which option you choose, only invest money you can afford to lose. Crypto is still a high-risk investment, even if it is more affordable right now. While cryptocurrency isn't right for everyone, if you've decided to invest, you can save some money by investing when prices are lower.</p><p><blockquote>无论你选择哪种方式，只投资你能承受损失的钱。加密仍然是一项高风险投资，即使它现在更实惠。虽然加密货币并不适合所有人，但如果你决定投资，你可以在价格较低时投资来节省一些钱。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto Is Crashing: Is Now the Time to Invest?<blockquote>加密货币正在崩溃：现在是投资的时候吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto Is Crashing: Is Now the Time to Invest?<blockquote>加密货币正在崩溃：现在是投资的时候吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-24 09:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Should you buy when prices are lower?</b>Cryptocurrency has always been volatile, but it's experienced quite the wild ride over the past few months. After shattering records and reaching staggeringly high prices, cryptocurrencies have taken a sharp turn for the worse.</p><p><blockquote><b>你应该在价格较低时购买吗？</b>加密货币一直不稳定，但在过去几个月里它经历了相当疯狂的旅程。在打破记录并达到惊人的高价后，加密货币急转直下。</blockquote></p><p><b>Bitcoin</b>(CRYPTO:BTC), which reached a high of around $65,000 per token last month, has fallen by more than 30% over the past 10 days, as of this writing. Other popular cryptocurrencies<b>Ethereum</b>(CRYPTO:ETH)and<b>Dogecoin</b>(CRYPTO:DOGE)are also down around 30% over the same time period.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b>（加密货币：BTC）上个月达到了每代币65,000美元左右的高点，截至撰写本文时，在过去10天内下跌了30%以上。其他流行的加密货币<b>以太币</b>（加密货币：ETH）和<b>狗狗币</b>(CRYPTO：DOGE)同期也下降了约30%。</blockquote></p><p>Sometimes, market crashes are beneficial to investors because they're an opportunity to buy stocks at bargain prices. If you've been eager to invest in cryptocurrencies but are hesitant about the sky-high prices, a crypto crash could make them more affordable. But does that mean you should invest?</p><p><blockquote>有时，市场崩盘对投资者有利，因为这是一个以低价购买股票的机会。如果您一直渴望投资加密货币，但对天价犹豫不决，那么加密货币崩溃可能会让它们变得更实惠。但这是否意味着你应该投资？</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a431fb4ba85bf22785c79c9d5e854fb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consider your tolerance for risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>考虑您的风险承受能力</b></blockquote></p><p>The latest crypto crash is further proof of this sector's volatility. Considering cryptocurrency's history, a 30% drop is fairly mild. Bitcoin, for example, has fallen by more 80% on three separate occasions since 2012, according to data from Visual Capitalist.</p><p><blockquote>最近的加密货币崩盘进一步证明了该行业的波动性。考虑到加密货币的历史，30%的跌幅相当温和。例如，根据Visual Capitalist的数据，自2012年以来，比特币的股价已三次下跌超过80%。</blockquote></p><p>This year alone, Bitcoin has already experienced several steep drops. So this recent crash is par for the course -- and there will likely be many more crashes like this in the future.</p><p><blockquote>仅今年，比特币就已经经历了几次大幅下跌。因此，最近的这次崩溃是意料之中的——未来可能会有更多这样的崩溃。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d201474a0a8330fe9548db7675270757\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"410\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Before you invest in cryptocurrency, think about whether you can tolerate this level of risk. Although Bitcoin has always managed to bounce back from its slumps, there's no guarantee it will always recover.</p><p><blockquote>在你投资加密货币之前，想想你是否能承受这种程度的风险。尽管比特币总是设法从低迷中反弹，但不能保证它总是会复苏。</blockquote></p><p>If you know you're going to lose sleep when your investments plummet overnight, crypto may not be the best investment for you. But if you have the stomach for this type of turbulence, you may have the right personality for investing in crypto.</p><p><blockquote>如果您知道当您的投资一夜之间暴跌时您会失眠，那么加密货币可能不是您的最佳投资。但如果你喜欢这种类型的动荡，你可能有投资加密货币的合适个性。</blockquote></p><p><b>Choose your crypto carefully</b></p><p><blockquote><b>仔细选择您的加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p>If you decide to invest in cryptocurrency, buying when prices are lower may be a wise move. Especially if you're investing in a higher-priced currency like Bitcoin, you can get more for your money when buying during a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>如果你决定投资加密货币，在价格较低时买入可能是明智之举。特别是如果您投资的是比特币等价格较高的货币，那么在经济低迷时期购买时，您可以获得更多收益。</blockquote></p><p>Just be sure you've done your research before you invest. The fact that a cryptocurrency is more affordable doesn't necessarily mean it's a smart investment, so consider all your options before you buy. The goal is to buy investments you can hold for the long term, so make sure you're choosing the right cryptocurrency for you.</p><p><blockquote>只要确保你在投资前已经做了调查。加密货币更实惠的事实并不一定意味着它是一项明智的投资，因此在购买之前请考虑您的所有选择。目标是购买您可以长期持有的投资，因此请确保您选择了适合您的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdae0dc3c25e26d6b12738f5eeb9a416\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin is the biggest name in the crypto space, and it's also the oldest cryptocurrency. This gives it a leg up on the competition. However, it's an energy-intensive cryptocurrency, which poses environmental concerns. In fact,<b>Tesla</b>CEO Elon Musk recently announced that the company wouldno longer accept Bitcoinas a form of payment because of its environmental impact.</p><p><blockquote>比特币是加密领域最大的名字，也是最古老的加密货币。这使其在竞争中占据优势。然而，它是一种能源密集型加密货币，会带来环境问题。事实上，<b>特斯拉</b>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克最近宣布，由于比特币对环境的影响，该公司将不再接受比特币作为一种支付形式。</blockquote></p><p>Ether is the second-most popular cryptocurrency, and it uses the popular blockchain Ethereum -- which is also the blockchain behind non-fungible tokens (NFTs) anddecentralized finance. Because the Ethereum blockchain has a variety of uses, that gives it an advantage. In addition, developers are currently working on Ethereum 2.0, which will be more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly.</p><p><blockquote>以太币是第二受欢迎的加密货币，它使用流行的区块链以太币，这也是不可替代代币(NFT)和去中心化金融背后的区块链。因为以太币区块链有多种用途，这给了它一个优势。此外，目前开发商正在研究以太币2.0，它将更加节能环保。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin is one of theriskiest cryptocurrencies, and buying this particular token is more similar to gambling than true investing. If you do choose to go this route, be sure you make this decision carefully.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币是风险最大的加密货币之一，购买这种特殊的代币更像是赌博，而不是真正的投资。如果你选择走这条路，一定要仔细做决定。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless of which option you choose, only invest money you can afford to lose. Crypto is still a high-risk investment, even if it is more affordable right now. While cryptocurrency isn't right for everyone, if you've decided to invest, you can save some money by investing when prices are lower.</p><p><blockquote>无论你选择哪种方式，只投资你能承受损失的钱。加密仍然是一项高风险投资，即使它现在更实惠。虽然加密货币并不适合所有人，但如果你决定投资，你可以在价格较低时投资来节省一些钱。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/23/crypto-is-crashing-is-now-the-time-to-invest/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/23/crypto-is-crashing-is-now-the-time-to-invest/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191258854","content_text":"Should you buy when prices are lower?Cryptocurrency has always been volatile, but it's experienced quite the wild ride over the past few months. After shattering records and reaching staggeringly high prices, cryptocurrencies have taken a sharp turn for the worse.Bitcoin(CRYPTO:BTC), which reached a high of around $65,000 per token last month, has fallen by more than 30% over the past 10 days, as of this writing. Other popular cryptocurrenciesEthereum(CRYPTO:ETH)andDogecoin(CRYPTO:DOGE)are also down around 30% over the same time period.Sometimes, market crashes are beneficial to investors because they're an opportunity to buy stocks at bargain prices. If you've been eager to invest in cryptocurrencies but are hesitant about the sky-high prices, a crypto crash could make them more affordable. But does that mean you should invest?IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Consider your tolerance for riskThe latest crypto crash is further proof of this sector's volatility. Considering cryptocurrency's history, a 30% drop is fairly mild. Bitcoin, for example, has fallen by more 80% on three separate occasions since 2012, according to data from Visual Capitalist.This year alone, Bitcoin has already experienced several steep drops. So this recent crash is par for the course -- and there will likely be many more crashes like this in the future.Before you invest in cryptocurrency, think about whether you can tolerate this level of risk. Although Bitcoin has always managed to bounce back from its slumps, there's no guarantee it will always recover.If you know you're going to lose sleep when your investments plummet overnight, crypto may not be the best investment for you. But if you have the stomach for this type of turbulence, you may have the right personality for investing in crypto.Choose your crypto carefullyIf you decide to invest in cryptocurrency, buying when prices are lower may be a wise move. Especially if you're investing in a higher-priced currency like Bitcoin, you can get more for your money when buying during a downturn.Just be sure you've done your research before you invest. The fact that a cryptocurrency is more affordable doesn't necessarily mean it's a smart investment, so consider all your options before you buy. The goal is to buy investments you can hold for the long term, so make sure you're choosing the right cryptocurrency for you.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Bitcoin is the biggest name in the crypto space, and it's also the oldest cryptocurrency. This gives it a leg up on the competition. However, it's an energy-intensive cryptocurrency, which poses environmental concerns. In fact,TeslaCEO Elon Musk recently announced that the company wouldno longer accept Bitcoinas a form of payment because of its environmental impact.Ether is the second-most popular cryptocurrency, and it uses the popular blockchain Ethereum -- which is also the blockchain behind non-fungible tokens (NFTs) anddecentralized finance. Because the Ethereum blockchain has a variety of uses, that gives it an advantage. In addition, developers are currently working on Ethereum 2.0, which will be more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly.Dogecoin is one of theriskiest cryptocurrencies, and buying this particular token is more similar to gambling than true investing. If you do choose to go this route, be sure you make this decision carefully.Regardless of which option you choose, only invest money you can afford to lose. Crypto is still a high-risk investment, even if it is more affordable right now. While cryptocurrency isn't right for everyone, if you've decided to invest, you can save some money by investing when prices are lower.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108196146,"gmtCreate":1620003650885,"gmtModify":1634208643551,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108196146","repostId":"1142070002","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142070002","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619792975,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142070002?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-30 22:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO rose more than 5%, after falling nearly 4% before<blockquote>蔚来涨超5%，此前跌近4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142070002","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"NIO Earnings Looked a Lot Like Ford’s. What to Know.Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO posted better than expected first quarter results. But the global automotive microchip shortage will hit production in the coming months.NIO  is a highly valued, high-growth stock. Now NIO bulls have to decide whether solid earnings will trump the growth hiccup or whether the chip shortage can hurt the company in the long run.NIO lost 23 cents a share on an adjusted, non-GAAP basis, from $1.2 billion in sales.","content":"<p>NIO rose more than 5%, after falling nearly 4% before.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来涨超5%，此前跌近4%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80881ae9e6de48ac5e3733583db3ba9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>NIO Earnings Looked a Lot Like Ford’s. What to Know.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的盈利看起来很像福特。知道什么。</b></blockquote></p><p>Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO posted better than expected first quarter results. But the global automotive microchip shortage will hit production in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来公布的第一季度业绩好于预期。但全球汽车微芯片短缺将在未来几个月影响生产。</blockquote></p><p>NIO (ticker: NIO) is a highly valued, high-growth stock. Now NIO bulls have to decide whether solid earnings will trump the growth hiccup or whether the chip shortage can hurt the company in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（股票代码：蔚来）是一只高估值、高增长的股票。现在，看多蔚来的人必须决定稳健的盈利是否会战胜增长问题，或者芯片短缺是否会从长远来看损害该公司。</blockquote></p><p>NIO lost&nbsp;23 cents&nbsp;a share on an adjusted, non-GAAP basis, from $1.2 billion in sales. Wall Street was looking for a comparable 84 cent loss from $1.1 billion in sales. NIO’s corporate gross profit margin came in at 19.5%, about 3 percentage points better than analysts projected and up from negative 12% a year ago. First quarter results look solid.</p><p><blockquote>按调整后的非公认会计准则计算，蔚来的销售额为12亿美元，每股亏损23美分。华尔街预计11亿美元的销售额将损失84美分。蔚来的企业毛利率为19.5%，比分析师预期高出约3个百分点，高于一年前的负12%。第一季度业绩看起来很稳健。</blockquote></p><p>The stock isn’t moving though. NIO reported numbers at 5:30 p.m. eastern time and not a lot of stock is trading after hours. NIO shares closed down 5.3% in Thursday trading. TheS&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;rose about&nbsp; 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>但该股没有变动。蔚来于下午5:30公布了数据。东部时间，盘后交易的股票并不多。蔚来股价周四收盘下跌5.3%。标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p>“NIO started the year of 2021 with a new quarterly delivery record of 20,060 vehicles in the first quarter,” said CEO William Bin Li in the company’s news release. “The overall demand for our products continues to be quite strong, but the supply chain is still facing significant challenges due to the semiconductor shortage.”</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官William Bin Li在公司新闻稿中表示：“蔚来以第一季度20,060辆汽车的新季度交付记录开启了2021年。”“对我们产品的整体需求仍然相当强劲，但由于半导体短缺，供应链仍然面临重大挑战。”</blockquote></p><p>Management called the chip situation “very severe” on its conference call and projected 21,000 to 22,000 vehicle deliveries for the second quarter and sales of about $1.3 billion. The Street is projecting $1.2 billion in sales. But the unit delivery guidance is a little lower than Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu had expected.</p><p><blockquote>管理层称其电话会议上的芯片形势“非常严峻”，并预计第二季度汽车交付量为21,000至22,000辆，销售额约为13亿美元。华尔街预计销售额为12亿美元。但单位交付指引略低于德意志银行分析师Edison Yu的预期。</blockquote></p><p>For the full year, Yu is modeling 95,000 deliveries. With about 42,000 deliveries likely for the first half of 2021, the resolution of the global chip shortage will go a long way to deciding whether or not NIO can reach Yu’s number.</p><p><blockquote>Yu全年对95,000次交付进行了建模。2021年上半年的交付量可能约为42,000辆，全球芯片短缺的解决将在很大程度上决定蔚来能否达到俞的数字。</blockquote></p><p>Yu rates NIO shares Buy and has a $60 price target for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Yu将蔚来股票评级为买入，并将该股目标价定为60美元。</blockquote></p><p>The overall quarter feels a little like&nbsp;Ford Motor‘s (F) quarter, which was&nbsp;reported Wednesday. Ford reported sales and earnings far better than Wall Street projected. Unit volumes were below the company’s internal projections, but improving vehicle mix boosted sales beyond Street projections. Ford prioritized making higher-end vehicles in the face of limited chip supply. Looking ahead, Ford said the impact of the chip shortage would be at the high end of the company’s initial $1 billion to $2.5 billion cost guidance.</p><p><blockquote>整个季度感觉有点像周三公布的福特汽车(F)季度。福特公布的销售额和盈利远好于华尔街的预期。销量低于公司内部预测，但车辆组合的改善推动了销量超出了街头预测。在芯片供应有限的情况下，福特优先生产高端汽车。展望未来，福特表示，芯片短缺的影响将处于该公司最初10亿至25亿美元成本指导的高端。</blockquote></p><p>Ford stock close down 9.4% Thursday, the day after the Wednesday evening report. The NIO second-quarter guidance isn’t as surprising as Ford’s. And NIO doesn’t have full-year guidance. But calling NIO’s stock price reaction is difficult.</p><p><blockquote>周三晚间报告发布后的第二天，福特股价周四收盘下跌9.4%。蔚来第二季度的指引并不像福特那样令人惊讶。蔚来也没有全年指引。但蔚来的股价反应很难预测。</blockquote></p><p>Ford trades for less than 7 times estimated 2022 earnings. NIO is expected to become profitable on a full-year basis in 2022. What’s more, NIO is worth about 50% more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特的市盈率不到2022年预期市盈率的7倍。蔚来预计将在2022年实现全年盈利。更重要的是，蔚来的价值比福特高出50%左右。</blockquote></p><p>NIO’s conference call wrapped up about 10 p.m. eastern time. After the chip shortage, analysts focused questions on EV competition in China and NIO’s production expansion. NIO is putting in place&nbsp;capacity to produce&nbsp;hundreds of thousands of vehicles in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电话会议在东部时间晚上10点左右结束。芯片短缺后，分析师将问题集中在国内电动汽车竞争和蔚来的扩产上。蔚来正在建立未来几年生产数十万辆汽车的能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO rose more than 5%, after falling nearly 4% before<blockquote>蔚来涨超5%，此前跌近4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO rose more than 5%, after falling nearly 4% before<blockquote>蔚来涨超5%，此前跌近4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-30 22:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NIO rose more than 5%, after falling nearly 4% before.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来涨超5%，此前跌近4%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80881ae9e6de48ac5e3733583db3ba9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>NIO Earnings Looked a Lot Like Ford’s. What to Know.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的盈利看起来很像福特。知道什么。</b></blockquote></p><p>Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO posted better than expected first quarter results. But the global automotive microchip shortage will hit production in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来公布的第一季度业绩好于预期。但全球汽车微芯片短缺将在未来几个月影响生产。</blockquote></p><p>NIO (ticker: NIO) is a highly valued, high-growth stock. Now NIO bulls have to decide whether solid earnings will trump the growth hiccup or whether the chip shortage can hurt the company in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（股票代码：蔚来）是一只高估值、高增长的股票。现在，看多蔚来的人必须决定稳健的盈利是否会战胜增长问题，或者芯片短缺是否会从长远来看损害该公司。</blockquote></p><p>NIO lost&nbsp;23 cents&nbsp;a share on an adjusted, non-GAAP basis, from $1.2 billion in sales. Wall Street was looking for a comparable 84 cent loss from $1.1 billion in sales. NIO’s corporate gross profit margin came in at 19.5%, about 3 percentage points better than analysts projected and up from negative 12% a year ago. First quarter results look solid.</p><p><blockquote>按调整后的非公认会计准则计算，蔚来的销售额为12亿美元，每股亏损23美分。华尔街预计11亿美元的销售额将损失84美分。蔚来的企业毛利率为19.5%，比分析师预期高出约3个百分点，高于一年前的负12%。第一季度业绩看起来很稳健。</blockquote></p><p>The stock isn’t moving though. NIO reported numbers at 5:30 p.m. eastern time and not a lot of stock is trading after hours. NIO shares closed down 5.3% in Thursday trading. TheS&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;rose about&nbsp; 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>但该股没有变动。蔚来于下午5:30公布了数据。东部时间，盘后交易的股票并不多。蔚来股价周四收盘下跌5.3%。标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p>“NIO started the year of 2021 with a new quarterly delivery record of 20,060 vehicles in the first quarter,” said CEO William Bin Li in the company’s news release. “The overall demand for our products continues to be quite strong, but the supply chain is still facing significant challenges due to the semiconductor shortage.”</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官William Bin Li在公司新闻稿中表示：“蔚来以第一季度20,060辆汽车的新季度交付记录开启了2021年。”“对我们产品的整体需求仍然相当强劲，但由于半导体短缺，供应链仍然面临重大挑战。”</blockquote></p><p>Management called the chip situation “very severe” on its conference call and projected 21,000 to 22,000 vehicle deliveries for the second quarter and sales of about $1.3 billion. The Street is projecting $1.2 billion in sales. But the unit delivery guidance is a little lower than Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu had expected.</p><p><blockquote>管理层称其电话会议上的芯片形势“非常严峻”，并预计第二季度汽车交付量为21,000至22,000辆，销售额约为13亿美元。华尔街预计销售额为12亿美元。但单位交付指引略低于德意志银行分析师Edison Yu的预期。</blockquote></p><p>For the full year, Yu is modeling 95,000 deliveries. With about 42,000 deliveries likely for the first half of 2021, the resolution of the global chip shortage will go a long way to deciding whether or not NIO can reach Yu’s number.</p><p><blockquote>Yu全年对95,000次交付进行了建模。2021年上半年的交付量可能约为42,000辆，全球芯片短缺的解决将在很大程度上决定蔚来能否达到俞的数字。</blockquote></p><p>Yu rates NIO shares Buy and has a $60 price target for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Yu将蔚来股票评级为买入，并将该股目标价定为60美元。</blockquote></p><p>The overall quarter feels a little like&nbsp;Ford Motor‘s (F) quarter, which was&nbsp;reported Wednesday. Ford reported sales and earnings far better than Wall Street projected. Unit volumes were below the company’s internal projections, but improving vehicle mix boosted sales beyond Street projections. Ford prioritized making higher-end vehicles in the face of limited chip supply. Looking ahead, Ford said the impact of the chip shortage would be at the high end of the company’s initial $1 billion to $2.5 billion cost guidance.</p><p><blockquote>整个季度感觉有点像周三公布的福特汽车(F)季度。福特公布的销售额和盈利远好于华尔街的预期。销量低于公司内部预测，但车辆组合的改善推动了销量超出了街头预测。在芯片供应有限的情况下，福特优先生产高端汽车。展望未来，福特表示，芯片短缺的影响将处于该公司最初10亿至25亿美元成本指导的高端。</blockquote></p><p>Ford stock close down 9.4% Thursday, the day after the Wednesday evening report. The NIO second-quarter guidance isn’t as surprising as Ford’s. And NIO doesn’t have full-year guidance. But calling NIO’s stock price reaction is difficult.</p><p><blockquote>周三晚间报告发布后的第二天，福特股价周四收盘下跌9.4%。蔚来第二季度的指引并不像福特那样令人惊讶。蔚来也没有全年指引。但蔚来的股价反应很难预测。</blockquote></p><p>Ford trades for less than 7 times estimated 2022 earnings. NIO is expected to become profitable on a full-year basis in 2022. What’s more, NIO is worth about 50% more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特的市盈率不到2022年预期市盈率的7倍。蔚来预计将在2022年实现全年盈利。更重要的是，蔚来的价值比福特高出50%左右。</blockquote></p><p>NIO’s conference call wrapped up about 10 p.m. eastern time. After the chip shortage, analysts focused questions on EV competition in China and NIO’s production expansion. NIO is putting in place&nbsp;capacity to produce&nbsp;hundreds of thousands of vehicles in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电话会议在东部时间晚上10点左右结束。芯片短缺后，分析师将问题集中在国内电动汽车竞争和蔚来的扩产上。蔚来正在建立未来几年生产数十万辆汽车的能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142070002","content_text":"NIO rose more than 5%, after falling nearly 4% before.NIO Earnings Looked a Lot Like Ford’s. What to Know.Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO posted better than expected first quarter results. But the global automotive microchip shortage will hit production in the coming months.NIO (ticker: NIO) is a highly valued, high-growth stock. Now NIO bulls have to decide whether solid earnings will trump the growth hiccup or whether the chip shortage can hurt the company in the long run.NIO lost 23 cents a share on an adjusted, non-GAAP basis, from $1.2 billion in sales. Wall Street was looking for a comparable 84 cent loss from $1.1 billion in sales. NIO’s corporate gross profit margin came in at 19.5%, about 3 percentage points better than analysts projected and up from negative 12% a year ago. First quarter results look solid.The stock isn’t moving though. NIO reported numbers at 5:30 p.m. eastern time and not a lot of stock is trading after hours. NIO shares closed down 5.3% in Thursday trading. TheS&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about  0.7%.“NIO started the year of 2021 with a new quarterly delivery record of 20,060 vehicles in the first quarter,” said CEO William Bin Li in the company’s news release. “The overall demand for our products continues to be quite strong, but the supply chain is still facing significant challenges due to the semiconductor shortage.”Management called the chip situation “very severe” on its conference call and projected 21,000 to 22,000 vehicle deliveries for the second quarter and sales of about $1.3 billion. The Street is projecting $1.2 billion in sales. But the unit delivery guidance is a little lower than Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu had expected.For the full year, Yu is modeling 95,000 deliveries. With about 42,000 deliveries likely for the first half of 2021, the resolution of the global chip shortage will go a long way to deciding whether or not NIO can reach Yu’s number.Yu rates NIO shares Buy and has a $60 price target for the stock.The overall quarter feels a little like Ford Motor‘s (F) quarter, which was reported Wednesday. Ford reported sales and earnings far better than Wall Street projected. Unit volumes were below the company’s internal projections, but improving vehicle mix boosted sales beyond Street projections. Ford prioritized making higher-end vehicles in the face of limited chip supply. Looking ahead, Ford said the impact of the chip shortage would be at the high end of the company’s initial $1 billion to $2.5 billion cost guidance.Ford stock close down 9.4% Thursday, the day after the Wednesday evening report. The NIO second-quarter guidance isn’t as surprising as Ford’s. And NIO doesn’t have full-year guidance. But calling NIO’s stock price reaction is difficult.Ford trades for less than 7 times estimated 2022 earnings. NIO is expected to become profitable on a full-year basis in 2022. What’s more, NIO is worth about 50% more than Ford.NIO’s conference call wrapped up about 10 p.m. eastern time. After the chip shortage, analysts focused questions on EV competition in China and NIO’s production expansion. NIO is putting in place capacity to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles in coming years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349493229,"gmtCreate":1617630545261,"gmtModify":1634297447713,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349493229","repostId":"2124279779","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":877096580,"gmtCreate":1637836444480,"gmtModify":1637836444561,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877096580","repostId":"1105943125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":120448253,"gmtCreate":1624334546672,"gmtModify":1631889675815,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comments","listText":"comments","text":"comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120448253","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188723532,"gmtCreate":1623462703726,"gmtModify":1631892196951,"author":{"id":"3566183313072109","authorId":"3566183313072109","name":"orrox","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63eb4c08ebc58d4fd3cc57ed0a98e83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566183313072109","idStr":"3566183313072109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments please","listText":"Comments please","text":"Comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188723532","repostId":"2142823202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}