霸道虎杨的个人主页 - 老虎社区

霸道虎杨

霸道虎杨

你懂我的意思吧

IP属地：贵州

23关注

3粉丝

8主题

0勋章

2024-04-11

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 牛逼常在，AI助力

2023-04-05

嘿嘿嘿，无风不起浪

小米：华为余承东将赴小米汽车任职的信息不实

2022-12-29

说着说着他又涨了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-12-22

历史的教训告诉我们，历史没有教训

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-12-13

雨又晴了，天又晴了，又感觉自己行了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-11-03

哦豁

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-09-02

韭菜大小而已

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-08-13

到底要动不动起来呢[财迷] [财迷]

宣告通胀胜利为时过早！美国8月密歇根长期通胀预期意外攀升

2022-08-12

数据不好的时候，要小心，不要轻举妄动！！数据好的时候，要慎重，不要高兴太早！！那你告诉我到底什么时候该动？？[冷漠] [冷漠]

图说美国CPI | 7月涨幅回落，市场乐观得太早了？

2022-08-11

$拼多多(PDD)$资本弃儿

2021-04-01

$Cinedigm数码影院(CIDM)$这左右横跳非常不错

2021-03-19

$Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$安静

2021-03-19

$Takung Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$这都不是实时信息了，直接玩垂直弹跳

2021-03-11

$游戏驿站(GME)$格外平静

2021-03-09

$Greenwich Lifesciences Inc(GLSI)$哇哦，起高了

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23:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"宣告通胀胜利为时过早！美国8月密歇根长期通胀预期意外攀升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135492485","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的攀升更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，回到历史最高水平。</blockquote><p>美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值自6月的历史新低继续爬升，创最近三个月新高。短期通胀预期回落，但长期通胀预期意外攀升。</p><p>周五公布的数据显示，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值55.1，预期52.5，前值51.5。分项指数方面，现况指数初值55.5，不及预期的57.8，也低于前值58.1；预期指数初值54.9，高于预期的48.5，前值仅为47.3。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976a24b35ad1cb3735eb3859c6c02972\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，8月1年通胀预期初值5%，预期5.1%，前值5.2%。今年稍早，该短期通胀预期一度达到5.4%，创下1981年以来的最高水平。<b>5-10年期通胀预期初值中位数为3%，高于市场预期的2.8%，较前值2.9%也有增加；预期平均值的攀升则更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，并回到历史最高水平。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db792bcec05cb5568026e845f641e927\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>过去约一年的时间里，密歇根5年通胀预期中位数处在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间，而6月初值一度打破该区间，达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，令市场颇为关注，认为是长期通胀预期松动的表现，不过此后在美联储暴力加息的推动下，5年期通胀预期回落，甚至一度跌破2.9%-3.1%的区间，令通胀预期可能失控的担忧大幅缓解。但最新数据显示，长期通胀预期又有上行迹象。</p><p>对于上述通胀预期，<b>分析指出，这不是一份能够安慰美联储的报告，虽然它不会让9月FOMC会议更偏向75个基点加息，但它确实表明，宣布战胜通胀显然为时过早。</b></p><p>密歇根消费者信心的通胀预期，与本周稍早美联储调查显示的不一致。纽约联储调查显示，7月消费者对未来一年的通胀增速预期从6月的6.78%降至6.22%，为今年2月以来的最低点，也是有史以来通胀预期下降最快的一个月。从中期来看，消费者对三年后的通胀率的预期降至3.18%，创下2021年4月以来的最低值。</p><p>本周，美国公布了CPI和PPI两大通胀数据，均好于市场预期且明显回落，或表明通胀拐点已至。7月CPI同比增8.5% 较前值9.1%显著回落；环比上涨0%，增速较前值的1.2%大幅回落。7月PPI环比下降0.5%，为2020年4月以来首次。</p><p>密歇根报告还显示，<b>虽然消费者的乐观情绪有所改善，但购买条件并未改善，通胀继续削弱人们的购物情绪，大多数主要购买项目（房屋、汽车、大型耐用品）的购买条件仍处于或接近历史低点。</b></p><p>8月，各类收入群体的预期指数都有所改善，尤其是在中低收入消费者中，通胀对他们尤为重要。高收入消费者目前的个人财务状况以及耐用品的购买条件，都出现了大幅下滑。虽然消费者对个人财务状况的看法与上个月基本没有变化，但当被问及明年的收入情况时，预期涨幅的中位数为2.1%，高于过去两个月的1.1%。”</p><p>消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>宣告通胀胜利为时过早！美国8月密歇根长期通胀预期意外攀升</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n宣告通胀胜利为时过早！美国8月密歇根长期通胀预期意外攀升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-12 23:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667569><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的攀升更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，回到历史最高水平。美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值自6月的历史新低继续爬升，创最近三个月新高。短期通胀预期回落，但长期通胀预期意外攀升。周五公布的数据显示，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667569\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667569","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1135492485","content_text":"美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的攀升更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，回到历史最高水平。美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值自6月的历史新低继续爬升，创最近三个月新高。短期通胀预期回落，但长期通胀预期意外攀升。周五公布的数据显示，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值55.1，预期52.5，前值51.5。分项指数方面，现况指数初值55.5，不及预期的57.8，也低于前值58.1；预期指数初值54.9，高于预期的48.5，前值仅为47.3。市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，8月1年通胀预期初值5%，预期5.1%，前值5.2%。今年稍早，该短期通胀预期一度达到5.4%，创下1981年以来的最高水平。5-10年期通胀预期初值中位数为3%，高于市场预期的2.8%，较前值2.9%也有增加；预期平均值的攀升则更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，并回到历史最高水平。过去约一年的时间里，密歇根5年通胀预期中位数处在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间，而6月初值一度打破该区间，达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，令市场颇为关注，认为是长期通胀预期松动的表现，不过此后在美联储暴力加息的推动下，5年期通胀预期回落，甚至一度跌破2.9%-3.1%的区间，令通胀预期可能失控的担忧大幅缓解。但最新数据显示，长期通胀预期又有上行迹象。对于上述通胀预期，分析指出，这不是一份能够安慰美联储的报告，虽然它不会让9月FOMC会议更偏向75个基点加息，但它确实表明，宣布战胜通胀显然为时过早。密歇根消费者信心的通胀预期，与本周稍早美联储调查显示的不一致。纽约联储调查显示，7月消费者对未来一年的通胀增速预期从6月的6.78%降至6.22%，为今年2月以来的最低点，也是有史以来通胀预期下降最快的一个月。从中期来看，消费者对三年后的通胀率的预期降至3.18%，创下2021年4月以来的最低值。本周，美国公布了CPI和PPI两大通胀数据，均好于市场预期且明显回落，或表明通胀拐点已至。7月CPI同比增8.5% 较前值9.1%显著回落；环比上涨0%，增速较前值的1.2%大幅回落。7月PPI环比下降0.5%，为2020年4月以来首次。密歇根报告还显示，虽然消费者的乐观情绪有所改善，但购买条件并未改善，通胀继续削弱人们的购物情绪，大多数主要购买项目（房屋、汽车、大型耐用品）的购买条件仍处于或接近历史低点。8月，各类收入群体的预期指数都有所改善，尤其是在中低收入消费者中，通胀对他们尤为重要。高收入消费者目前的个人财务状况以及耐用品的购买条件，都出现了大幅下滑。虽然消费者对个人财务状况的看法与上个月基本没有变化，但当被问及明年的收入情况时，预期涨幅的中位数为2.1%，高于过去两个月的1.1%。”消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684209239,"gmtCreate":1660292220424,"gmtModify":1660292220424,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"数据不好的时候，要小心，不要轻举妄动！！数据好的时候，要慎重，不要高兴太早！！那你告诉我到底什么时候该动？？[冷漠]&nbsp;[冷漠]&nbsp;","listText":"数据不好的时候，要小心，不要轻举妄动！！数据好的时候，要慎重，不要高兴太早！！那你告诉我到底什么时候该动？？[冷漠]&nbsp;[冷漠]&nbsp;","text":"数据不好的时候，要小心，不要轻举妄动！！数据好的时候，要慎重，不要高兴太早！！那你告诉我到底什么时候该动？？[冷漠] [冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684209239","repostId":"1173545207","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173545207","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1660286599,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173545207?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-12 14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"图说美国CPI | 7月涨幅回落，市场乐观得太早了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173545207","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"单月数据放缓不具有代表性，通胀仍有阶段性回升的风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>8月10日，万众期待的美国通胀数据终于公布：<b>7月CPI同比涨幅8.5%，核心通胀持平于5.9%，读数均低于海外市场预期，自去年初美国通胀上行以来，首次出现。</b>环比由上月的1.3%转为零增长，是2020年下半年以来的最低增速。</p><p>众所周知，美联储对通货膨胀的警惕和“仇恨”是深入骨髓的，随着CPI不断爆表，美联储的加息步伐也迈得越来越大，两条曲线以高斜率直插天际，可谓是比翼齐飞。那么，现在CPI涨幅出现拐点，美联储的加息政策会不会有所松动呢？</p><p>实际上，<b>7月数据确实算得上自美联储去年底收紧货币政策以来的首个积极信号，</b>市场也给与了积极反馈，9月加息75bp概率下降、美股大涨、美债利率小幅下行。<b>但，正如明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利所言：“美联储在通胀方面‘离宣布胜利还很远很远’”、“表明通胀正在以令人信服的方式下降”的明确证据还未出现。</b></p><p>所以，乐观数据背后我们要看到几点：</p><p>一，单月数据放缓不具有代表性，通胀仍有阶段性回升的风险；</p><p>二，通胀宽度依然比肩大通胀年代，通胀预期中枢抬升、通胀固化的风险仍未缓解；</p><p>三，房租和多数服务项涨价动能未见衰减，还未回到0.2%的正常水平（意味着核心通胀的折年率基本回到2%的目标附近）。</p><p>因此，作为投资者，切不可在形势稍有缓和的时候就有“冲呀”的想法，让子弹飞一会儿，或许更稳妥。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addac21f2402655bd504250e8d4d7142\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"2500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>图说美国CPI | 7月涨幅回落，市场乐观得太早了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n图说美国CPI | 7月涨幅回落，市场乐观得太早了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-12 14:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>8月10日，万众期待的美国通胀数据终于公布：<b>7月CPI同比涨幅8.5%，核心通胀持平于5.9%，读数均低于海外市场预期，自去年初美国通胀上行以来，首次出现。</b>环比由上月的1.3%转为零增长，是2020年下半年以来的最低增速。</p><p>众所周知，美联储对通货膨胀的警惕和“仇恨”是深入骨髓的，随着CPI不断爆表，美联储的加息步伐也迈得越来越大，两条曲线以高斜率直插天际，可谓是比翼齐飞。那么，现在CPI涨幅出现拐点，美联储的加息政策会不会有所松动呢？</p><p>实际上，<b>7月数据确实算得上自美联储去年底收紧货币政策以来的首个积极信号，</b>市场也给与了积极反馈，9月加息75bp概率下降、美股大涨、美债利率小幅下行。<b>但，正如明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利所言：“美联储在通胀方面‘离宣布胜利还很远很远’”、“表明通胀正在以令人信服的方式下降”的明确证据还未出现。</b></p><p>所以，乐观数据背后我们要看到几点：</p><p>一，单月数据放缓不具有代表性，通胀仍有阶段性回升的风险；</p><p>二，通胀宽度依然比肩大通胀年代，通胀预期中枢抬升、通胀固化的风险仍未缓解；</p><p>三，房租和多数服务项涨价动能未见衰减，还未回到0.2%的正常水平（意味着核心通胀的折年率基本回到2%的目标附近）。</p><p>因此，作为投资者，切不可在形势稍有缓和的时候就有“冲呀”的想法，让子弹飞一会儿，或许更稳妥。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addac21f2402655bd504250e8d4d7142\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"2500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ca214f9458dc36981f84b5a99d4dbc","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173545207","content_text":"8月10日，万众期待的美国通胀数据终于公布：7月CPI同比涨幅8.5%，核心通胀持平于5.9%，读数均低于海外市场预期，自去年初美国通胀上行以来，首次出现。环比由上月的1.3%转为零增长，是2020年下半年以来的最低增速。众所周知，美联储对通货膨胀的警惕和“仇恨”是深入骨髓的，随着CPI不断爆表，美联储的加息步伐也迈得越来越大，两条曲线以高斜率直插天际，可谓是比翼齐飞。那么，现在CPI涨幅出现拐点，美联储的加息政策会不会有所松动呢？实际上，7月数据确实算得上自美联储去年底收紧货币政策以来的首个积极信号，市场也给与了积极反馈，9月加息75bp概率下降、美股大涨、美债利率小幅下行。但，正如明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利所言：“美联储在通胀方面‘离宣布胜利还很远很远’”、“表明通胀正在以令人信服的方式下降”的明确证据还未出现。所以，乐观数据背后我们要看到几点：一，单月数据放缓不具有代表性，通胀仍有阶段性回升的风险；二，通胀宽度依然比肩大通胀年代，通胀预期中枢抬升、通胀固化的风险仍未缓解；三，房租和多数服务项涨价动能未见衰减，还未回到0.2%的正常水平（意味着核心通胀的折年率基本回到2%的目标附近）。因此，作为投资者，切不可在形势稍有缓和的时候就有“冲呀”的想法，让子弹飞一会儿，或许更稳妥。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684899292,"gmtCreate":1660193960619,"gmtModify":1660193960619,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684209239","repostId":"1173545207","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173545207","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1660286599,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173545207?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-12 14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"图说美国CPI | 7月涨幅回落，市场乐观得太早了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173545207","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"单月数据放缓不具有代表性，通胀仍有阶段性回升的风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>8月10日，万众期待的美国通胀数据终于公布：<b>7月CPI同比涨幅8.5%，核心通胀持平于5.9%，读数均低于海外市场预期，自去年初美国通胀上行以来，首次出现。</b>环比由上月的1.3%转为零增长，是2020年下半年以来的最低增速。</p><p>众所周知，美联储对通货膨胀的警惕和“仇恨”是深入骨髓的，随着CPI不断爆表，美联储的加息步伐也迈得越来越大，两条曲线以高斜率直插天际，可谓是比翼齐飞。那么，现在CPI涨幅出现拐点，美联储的加息政策会不会有所松动呢？</p><p>实际上，<b>7月数据确实算得上自美联储去年底收紧货币政策以来的首个积极信号，</b>市场也给与了积极反馈，9月加息75bp概率下降、美股大涨、美债利率小幅下行。<b>但，正如明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利所言：“美联储在通胀方面‘离宣布胜利还很远很远’”、“表明通胀正在以令人信服的方式下降”的明确证据还未出现。</b></p><p>所以，乐观数据背后我们要看到几点：</p><p>一，单月数据放缓不具有代表性，通胀仍有阶段性回升的风险；</p><p>二，通胀宽度依然比肩大通胀年代，通胀预期中枢抬升、通胀固化的风险仍未缓解；</p><p>三，房租和多数服务项涨价动能未见衰减，还未回到0.2%的正常水平（意味着核心通胀的折年率基本回到2%的目标附近）。</p><p>因此，作为投资者，切不可在形势稍有缓和的时候就有“冲呀”的想法，让子弹飞一会儿，或许更稳妥。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addac21f2402655bd504250e8d4d7142\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"2500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>图说美国CPI | 7月涨幅回落，市场乐观得太早了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n图说美国CPI | 7月涨幅回落，市场乐观得太早了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-12 14:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>8月10日，万众期待的美国通胀数据终于公布：<b>7月CPI同比涨幅8.5%，核心通胀持平于5.9%，读数均低于海外市场预期，自去年初美国通胀上行以来，首次出现。</b>环比由上月的1.3%转为零增长，是2020年下半年以来的最低增速。</p><p>众所周知，美联储对通货膨胀的警惕和“仇恨”是深入骨髓的，随着CPI不断爆表，美联储的加息步伐也迈得越来越大，两条曲线以高斜率直插天际，可谓是比翼齐飞。那么，现在CPI涨幅出现拐点，美联储的加息政策会不会有所松动呢？</p><p>实际上，<b>7月数据确实算得上自美联储去年底收紧货币政策以来的首个积极信号，</b>市场也给与了积极反馈，9月加息75bp概率下降、美股大涨、美债利率小幅下行。<b>但，正如明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利所言：“美联储在通胀方面‘离宣布胜利还很远很远’”、“表明通胀正在以令人信服的方式下降”的明确证据还未出现。</b></p><p>所以，乐观数据背后我们要看到几点：</p><p>一，单月数据放缓不具有代表性，通胀仍有阶段性回升的风险；</p><p>二，通胀宽度依然比肩大通胀年代，通胀预期中枢抬升、通胀固化的风险仍未缓解；</p><p>三，房租和多数服务项涨价动能未见衰减，还未回到0.2%的正常水平（意味着核心通胀的折年率基本回到2%的目标附近）。</p><p>因此，作为投资者，切不可在形势稍有缓和的时候就有“冲呀”的想法，让子弹飞一会儿，或许更稳妥。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addac21f2402655bd504250e8d4d7142\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"2500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ca214f9458dc36981f84b5a99d4dbc","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173545207","content_text":"8月10日，万众期待的美国通胀数据终于公布：7月CPI同比涨幅8.5%，核心通胀持平于5.9%，读数均低于海外市场预期，自去年初美国通胀上行以来，首次出现。环比由上月的1.3%转为零增长，是2020年下半年以来的最低增速。众所周知，美联储对通货膨胀的警惕和“仇恨”是深入骨髓的，随着CPI不断爆表，美联储的加息步伐也迈得越来越大，两条曲线以高斜率直插天际，可谓是比翼齐飞。那么，现在CPI涨幅出现拐点，美联储的加息政策会不会有所松动呢？实际上，7月数据确实算得上自美联储去年底收紧货币政策以来的首个积极信号，市场也给与了积极反馈，9月加息75bp概率下降、美股大涨、美债利率小幅下行。但，正如明尼阿波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利所言：“美联储在通胀方面‘离宣布胜利还很远很远’”、“表明通胀正在以令人信服的方式下降”的明确证据还未出现。所以，乐观数据背后我们要看到几点：一，单月数据放缓不具有代表性，通胀仍有阶段性回升的风险；二，通胀宽度依然比肩大通胀年代，通胀预期中枢抬升、通胀固化的风险仍未缓解；三，房租和多数服务项涨价动能未见衰减，还未回到0.2%的正常水平（意味着核心通胀的折年率基本回到2%的目标附近）。因此，作为投资者，切不可在形势稍有缓和的时候就有“冲呀”的想法，让子弹飞一会儿，或许更稳妥。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":294164896489664,"gmtCreate":1712840733865,"gmtModify":1712841040430,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>格外平静","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$格外平静","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321760200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684224053,"gmtCreate":1660320758877,"gmtModify":1660320758877,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"到底要动不动起来呢[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"到底要动不动起来呢[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"到底要动不动起来呢[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684224053","repostId":"1135492485","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135492485","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660318639,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135492485?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-12 23:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"宣告通胀胜利为时过早！美国8月密歇根长期通胀预期意外攀升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135492485","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的攀升更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，回到历史最高水平。</blockquote><p>美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值自6月的历史新低继续爬升，创最近三个月新高。短期通胀预期回落，但长期通胀预期意外攀升。</p><p>周五公布的数据显示，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值55.1，预期52.5，前值51.5。分项指数方面，现况指数初值55.5，不及预期的57.8，也低于前值58.1；预期指数初值54.9，高于预期的48.5，前值仅为47.3。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976a24b35ad1cb3735eb3859c6c02972\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，8月1年通胀预期初值5%，预期5.1%，前值5.2%。今年稍早，该短期通胀预期一度达到5.4%，创下1981年以来的最高水平。<b>5-10年期通胀预期初值中位数为3%，高于市场预期的2.8%，较前值2.9%也有增加；预期平均值的攀升则更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，并回到历史最高水平。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db792bcec05cb5568026e845f641e927\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>过去约一年的时间里，密歇根5年通胀预期中位数处在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间，而6月初值一度打破该区间，达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，令市场颇为关注，认为是长期通胀预期松动的表现，不过此后在美联储暴力加息的推动下，5年期通胀预期回落，甚至一度跌破2.9%-3.1%的区间，令通胀预期可能失控的担忧大幅缓解。但最新数据显示，长期通胀预期又有上行迹象。</p><p>对于上述通胀预期，<b>分析指出，这不是一份能够安慰美联储的报告，虽然它不会让9月FOMC会议更偏向75个基点加息，但它确实表明，宣布战胜通胀显然为时过早。</b></p><p>密歇根消费者信心的通胀预期，与本周稍早美联储调查显示的不一致。纽约联储调查显示，7月消费者对未来一年的通胀增速预期从6月的6.78%降至6.22%，为今年2月以来的最低点，也是有史以来通胀预期下降最快的一个月。从中期来看，消费者对三年后的通胀率的预期降至3.18%，创下2021年4月以来的最低值。</p><p>本周，美国公布了CPI和PPI两大通胀数据，均好于市场预期且明显回落，或表明通胀拐点已至。7月CPI同比增8.5% 较前值9.1%显著回落；环比上涨0%，增速较前值的1.2%大幅回落。7月PPI环比下降0.5%，为2020年4月以来首次。</p><p>密歇根报告还显示，<b>虽然消费者的乐观情绪有所改善，但购买条件并未改善，通胀继续削弱人们的购物情绪，大多数主要购买项目（房屋、汽车、大型耐用品）的购买条件仍处于或接近历史低点。</b></p><p>8月，各类收入群体的预期指数都有所改善，尤其是在中低收入消费者中，通胀对他们尤为重要。高收入消费者目前的个人财务状况以及耐用品的购买条件，都出现了大幅下滑。虽然消费者对个人财务状况的看法与上个月基本没有变化，但当被问及明年的收入情况时，预期涨幅的中位数为2.1%，高于过去两个月的1.1%。”</p><p>消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>宣告通胀胜利为时过早！美国8月密歇根长期通胀预期意外攀升</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n宣告通胀胜利为时过早！美国8月密歇根长期通胀预期意外攀升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-12 23:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667569><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的攀升更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，回到历史最高水平。美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值自6月的历史新低继续爬升，创最近三个月新高。短期通胀预期回落，但长期通胀预期意外攀升。周五公布的数据显示，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667569\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667569","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1135492485","content_text":"美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.1，自6月的历史新低爬升，创最近三个月新高。1年通胀预期初值5%，较前值5.2%回落；但5-10年通胀预期中位值意外攀升到3%，前值为2.9%，预期平均值的攀升更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，回到历史最高水平。美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值自6月的历史新低继续爬升，创最近三个月新高。短期通胀预期回落，但长期通胀预期意外攀升。周五公布的数据显示，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值55.1，预期52.5，前值51.5。分项指数方面，现况指数初值55.5，不及预期的57.8，也低于前值58.1；预期指数初值54.9，高于预期的48.5，前值仅为47.3。市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，8月1年通胀预期初值5%，预期5.1%，前值5.2%。今年稍早，该短期通胀预期一度达到5.4%，创下1981年以来的最高水平。5-10年期通胀预期初值中位数为3%，高于市场预期的2.8%，较前值2.9%也有增加；预期平均值的攀升则更为显著，从3.4%上升至4.0%，并回到历史最高水平。过去约一年的时间里，密歇根5年通胀预期中位数处在2.9%-3.1%的窄幅波动区间，而6月初值一度打破该区间，达到3.3%，创下2008年以来的最高，令市场颇为关注，认为是长期通胀预期松动的表现，不过此后在美联储暴力加息的推动下，5年期通胀预期回落，甚至一度跌破2.9%-3.1%的区间，令通胀预期可能失控的担忧大幅缓解。但最新数据显示，长期通胀预期又有上行迹象。对于上述通胀预期，分析指出，这不是一份能够安慰美联储的报告，虽然它不会让9月FOMC会议更偏向75个基点加息，但它确实表明，宣布战胜通胀显然为时过早。密歇根消费者信心的通胀预期，与本周稍早美联储调查显示的不一致。纽约联储调查显示，7月消费者对未来一年的通胀增速预期从6月的6.78%降至6.22%，为今年2月以来的最低点，也是有史以来通胀预期下降最快的一个月。从中期来看，消费者对三年后的通胀率的预期降至3.18%，创下2021年4月以来的最低值。本周，美国公布了CPI和PPI两大通胀数据，均好于市场预期且明显回落，或表明通胀拐点已至。7月CPI同比增8.5% 较前值9.1%显著回落；环比上涨0%，增速较前值的1.2%大幅回落。7月PPI环比下降0.5%，为2020年4月以来首次。密歇根报告还显示，虽然消费者的乐观情绪有所改善，但购买条件并未改善，通胀继续削弱人们的购物情绪，大多数主要购买项目（房屋、汽车、大型耐用品）的购买条件仍处于或接近历史低点。8月，各类收入群体的预期指数都有所改善，尤其是在中低收入消费者中，通胀对他们尤为重要。高收入消费者目前的个人财务状况以及耐用品的购买条件，都出现了大幅下滑。虽然消费者对个人财务状况的看法与上个月基本没有变化，但当被问及明年的收入情况时，预期涨幅的中位数为2.1%，高于过去两个月的1.1%。”消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669942664,"gmtCreate":1662051063059,"gmtModify":1662051064147,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"韭菜大小而已","listText":"韭菜大小而已","text":"韭菜大小而已","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669942664","repostId":"2264223010","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":653170942,"gmtCreate":1680691744587,"gmtModify":1680691746204,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"嘿嘿嘿，无风不起浪","listText":"嘿嘿嘿，无风不起浪","text":"嘿嘿嘿，无风不起浪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653170942","repostId":"1177258457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177258457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1680687385,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177258457?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-05 17:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米：华为余承东将赴小米汽车任职的信息不实","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177258457","media":"36氪","summary":"这些都是胡编乱造的消息。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>针对有媒体报道华为终端公司总裁余承东将赴小米汽车任职的消息，小米集团公关负责人回应：这些都是胡编乱造的消息。</p></body></html>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米：华为余承东将赴小米汽车任职的信息不实</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5780c7a5535cf00e4a784fadddba1aaf","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/newsflashes/2202260052650887","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177258457","content_text":"针对有媒体报道华为终端公司总裁余承东将赴小米汽车任职的消息，小米集团公关负责人回应：这些都是胡编乱造的消息。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621289355,"gmtCreate":1672310032177,"gmtModify":1672310034179,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说着说着他又涨了","listText":"说着说着他又涨了","text":"说着说着他又涨了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621289355","repostId":"1139175979","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623725575,"gmtCreate":1671697515098,"gmtModify":1671697517258,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"历史的教训告诉我们，历史没有教训","listText":"历史的教训告诉我们，历史没有教训","text":"历史的教训告诉我们，历史没有教训","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623725575","repostId":"2293377960","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2293377960","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1671682526,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2293377960?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-22 12:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"暴跌结束了吗？多家顶级投行警告：准备应对更痛苦的一年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2293377960","media":"金十数据","summary":"对美股来说，连续2年下跌是非常罕见的，一旦发生，那么第二年的跌幅往往会更大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>对美股来说，连续两年下跌是很罕见的。因此经过今年的暴跌之后，2023年美股再次走低的可能性很低。然而，历史表明，<b>如果真的发生这种情况，那么投资者将不得不准备迎接另一个令人非常难受的年份。</b></p><p>自1928年以来，标普500指数只出现过四次连续两年下跌，分别发生在大萧条、第二次世界大战、上世纪70年代石油危机和本世纪初互联网泡沫破裂。</p><p>在该指数近100年的历史中，这种情况显然是异常情况。然而，<b>一旦发生，往往意味着第二年的跌幅会比第一年更大，历史平均跌幅为24%，超过今年迄今约20%的跌幅。</b></p><p>连续超过两年的下跌则更是罕见，在2000-2002年和1939-1941年间，标普500指数曾连续三年下跌，而最长的连跌纪录仍是臭名昭著的大萧条，当时股市创下在1929-1932年连续四年下跌的纪录。</p><p><b>由于连续下跌确实较为罕见，部分基金经理和华尔街策略师预计明年标普500指数将温和复苏。</b>Crossbridge Capital首席投资官曼尼什•辛格（Manish Singh）表示：</p><blockquote>“对股市来说，经济衰退并不一定是坏事，因为市场往往会在衰退开始前触底。”</blockquote><p>然而，跟这些基金经理不同，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>等投行的高级策略师却警告称，<b>准备告别全球金融危机以来股市最糟糕一年的投资者，应该做好准备应对更为痛苦的2023年。</b>他们警告称，<b>随着企业盈利受到增长放缓的经济和居高不下的通胀的影响，加上各国央行仍保持坚定的鹰派立场，股市将在明年上半年面临新一轮下跌。</b></p><p>他们认为，如果美联储停止加息，明年下半年经济将复苏，但这可能只会带来一波温和的反弹，<b>届时股市只会比2022年底略好一点而已</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>全球股票策略师Mislav Matejka也表示：</p><blockquote>“股市今年面临的风险还没有结束，这让我对前景感到紧张，尤其是明年上半年。”</blockquote><p>摩根大通预计，<b>标普500指数将回落至2022年的低点，即跌至3577点，之后美联储的转向将推动下半年的反弹，这将使其比当前水平高出约10%。</b></p><p>摩根士丹利的威尔逊（Michael Wilson）是坚定大空头，他在今年的《机构投资者》调查中排名第一。他认为，<b>标普500指数第一季度最多还会再下跌21%。随后的反弹将使该指数今年收于3900点左右，这跟本周一收盘相比仅上涨约2%。</b></p><p>媒体调查了22位策略师，其平均预期是标普500指数明年收于4078点，比目前水平高出约7%。最乐观的预测是增长24%，而悲观的预测是下跌11%。在欧洲，对14位策略师进行的一项类似调查预计斯托克600指数将平均上涨5%左右。</p><p>这一谨慎的预期反映出，从货币紧缩到乌克兰冲突，再到欧洲能源危机，市场的挑战数不胜数。其中，货币紧缩已经抑制了近期股市的上涨。</p><p>即使是通胀方面的好消息也伴随着一个很大的警告，因为它没有动摇各国央行控制通胀的决心。<b>美联储和欧洲央行上周的鹰派言论引发股市大幅下跌，他们还不忘强调，投资者等待已久的政策转变远未到来。</b></p><p>外媒本月发布的一项调查显示，顶级基金经理们也预测，<b>2023年的开局会很艰难，他们倾向于认为到明年下半年才会有收益</b>。对于那些持乐观态度的人来说，他们认为可以从美国经济的弹性、加息速度放缓等因素中获得支撑。但尽管如此，<b>策略师们的一个主要共识是，股市尚未反映出悲观的经济前景。</b></p><p>与不断恶化的经济前景密切相关的是企业收益。尽管2022年通胀失控，企业利润却表现出了惊人的弹性，不过随着利润率压力的增加，<b>预计明年企业利润将大幅下降，而需求疲软可能导致滞胀这个更大的风险。</b></p><p>威尔逊本周警告称，<b>企业利润下滑可能与2008年金融危机期间的情况相当</b>，而这并没有反映在当前的股票价格中。美国银行的一项调查也显示，基金经理预计明年的盈利前景将恶化，这使得他们对债券的看法比股票更为乐观；他们的<b>股债比处于2009年以来的最低水平</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/958ce1df7c986041fb7a03f85cbb6fd8\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>摩根大通策略师拉科斯-布哈斯（Dubravko Lakos-Bujas）说：</p><blockquote>“我们预计今年（企业盈利）的增长背景不会持续到2023年，预计美国、欧元区和日本的企业利润将分别下降9%、10%和4%。”</blockquote><p>相比之下，机构更看好新兴市场明年的情况。包括乔纳森·加纳（Jonathan Garner）在内的摩根士丹利策略师仍在增持亚洲地区新兴市场股票，而不是发达市场，因为他们“<b>更有信心，一个新的牛市周期正在开始</b>”。</p><p>与此同时，野村证券的研究团队也称，<b>西方的衰退将使亚洲股市有机会跑赢，</b>因为亚洲股市估值更低，基本面前景更好。</p><p>道富<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/B73.SI\">环球投资</a>顾问公司高级投资策略师阿尤布（Mehvish Ayub）则相对较悲观，他表示：</p><blockquote>“预计2023年全球增长都将受到巨大打击，不确定性将持续，有很多波动需要应对，股市仍面临挑战。”</blockquote></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>暴跌结束了吗？多家顶级投行警告：准备应对更痛苦的一年</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n暴跌结束了吗？多家顶级投行警告：准备应对更痛苦的一年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-22 12:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=104616&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>对美股来说，连续两年下跌是很罕见的。因此经过今年的暴跌之后，2023年美股再次走低的可能性很低。然而，历史表明，如果真的发生这种情况，那么投资者将不得不准备迎接另一个令人非常难受的年份。自1928年以来，标普500指数只出现过四次连续两年下跌，分别发生在大萧条、第二次世界大战、上世纪70年代石油危机和本世纪初互联网泡沫破裂。在该指数近100年的历史中，这种情况显然是异常情况。然而，一旦发生，往往...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=104616&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=104616&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2293377960","content_text":"对美股来说，连续两年下跌是很罕见的。因此经过今年的暴跌之后，2023年美股再次走低的可能性很低。然而，历史表明，如果真的发生这种情况，那么投资者将不得不准备迎接另一个令人非常难受的年份。自1928年以来，标普500指数只出现过四次连续两年下跌，分别发生在大萧条、第二次世界大战、上世纪70年代石油危机和本世纪初互联网泡沫破裂。在该指数近100年的历史中，这种情况显然是异常情况。然而，一旦发生，往往意味着第二年的跌幅会比第一年更大，历史平均跌幅为24%，超过今年迄今约20%的跌幅。连续超过两年的下跌则更是罕见，在2000-2002年和1939-1941年间，标普500指数曾连续三年下跌，而最长的连跌纪录仍是臭名昭著的大萧条，当时股市创下在1929-1932年连续四年下跌的纪录。由于连续下跌确实较为罕见，部分基金经理和华尔街策略师预计明年标普500指数将温和复苏。Crossbridge Capital首席投资官曼尼什•辛格（Manish Singh）表示：“对股市来说，经济衰退并不一定是坏事，因为市场往往会在衰退开始前触底。”然而，跟这些基金经理不同，摩根士丹利和高盛等投行的高级策略师却警告称，准备告别全球金融危机以来股市最糟糕一年的投资者，应该做好准备应对更为痛苦的2023年。他们警告称，随着企业盈利受到增长放缓的经济和居高不下的通胀的影响，加上各国央行仍保持坚定的鹰派立场，股市将在明年上半年面临新一轮下跌。他们认为，如果美联储停止加息，明年下半年经济将复苏，但这可能只会带来一波温和的反弹，届时股市只会比2022年底略好一点而已。摩根大通全球股票策略师Mislav Matejka也表示：“股市今年面临的风险还没有结束，这让我对前景感到紧张，尤其是明年上半年。”摩根大通预计，标普500指数将回落至2022年的低点，即跌至3577点，之后美联储的转向将推动下半年的反弹，这将使其比当前水平高出约10%。摩根士丹利的威尔逊（Michael Wilson）是坚定大空头，他在今年的《机构投资者》调查中排名第一。他认为，标普500指数第一季度最多还会再下跌21%。随后的反弹将使该指数今年收于3900点左右，这跟本周一收盘相比仅上涨约2%。媒体调查了22位策略师，其平均预期是标普500指数明年收于4078点，比目前水平高出约7%。最乐观的预测是增长24%，而悲观的预测是下跌11%。在欧洲，对14位策略师进行的一项类似调查预计斯托克600指数将平均上涨5%左右。这一谨慎的预期反映出，从货币紧缩到乌克兰冲突，再到欧洲能源危机，市场的挑战数不胜数。其中，货币紧缩已经抑制了近期股市的上涨。即使是通胀方面的好消息也伴随着一个很大的警告，因为它没有动摇各国央行控制通胀的决心。美联储和欧洲央行上周的鹰派言论引发股市大幅下跌，他们还不忘强调，投资者等待已久的政策转变远未到来。外媒本月发布的一项调查显示，顶级基金经理们也预测，2023年的开局会很艰难，他们倾向于认为到明年下半年才会有收益。对于那些持乐观态度的人来说，他们认为可以从美国经济的弹性、加息速度放缓等因素中获得支撑。但尽管如此，策略师们的一个主要共识是，股市尚未反映出悲观的经济前景。与不断恶化的经济前景密切相关的是企业收益。尽管2022年通胀失控，企业利润却表现出了惊人的弹性，不过随着利润率压力的增加，预计明年企业利润将大幅下降，而需求疲软可能导致滞胀这个更大的风险。威尔逊本周警告称，企业利润下滑可能与2008年金融危机期间的情况相当，而这并没有反映在当前的股票价格中。美国银行的一项调查也显示，基金经理预计明年的盈利前景将恶化，这使得他们对债券的看法比股票更为乐观；他们的股债比处于2009年以来的最低水平。摩根大通策略师拉科斯-布哈斯（Dubravko Lakos-Bujas）说：“我们预计今年（企业盈利）的增长背景不会持续到2023年，预计美国、欧元区和日本的企业利润将分别下降9%、10%和4%。”相比之下，机构更看好新兴市场明年的情况。包括乔纳森·加纳（Jonathan Garner）在内的摩根士丹利策略师仍在增持亚洲地区新兴市场股票，而不是发达市场，因为他们“更有信心，一个新的牛市周期正在开始”。与此同时，野村证券的研究团队也称，西方的衰退将使亚洲股市有机会跑赢，因为亚洲股市估值更低，基本面前景更好。道富环球投资顾问公司高级投资策略师阿尤布（Mehvish Ayub）则相对较悲观，他表示：“预计2023年全球增长都将受到巨大打击，不确定性将持续，有很多波动需要应对，股市仍面临挑战。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629729941,"gmtCreate":1670861874583,"gmtModify":1670861876340,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"雨又晴了，天又晴了，又感觉自己行了","listText":"雨又晴了，天又晴了，又感觉自己行了","text":"雨又晴了，天又晴了，又感觉自己行了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629729941","repostId":"1130486131","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130486131","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670858037,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130486131?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-12 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"法拉第未来盘中暴涨超70%，将举办全球投资人会议","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130486131","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周一，法拉第未来盘中暴涨，截至发稿涨幅超70%！公司此前宣布将于美国西部时间12月15日举办全球投资人会议，会上将更新FF 91 Futurist的车辆交付计划。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周一，法拉第未来盘中暴涨，截至发稿涨幅超70%！公司此前宣布将于美国西部时间12月15日举办全球投资人会议，会上将更新FF 91 Futurist的车辆交付计划。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be04d5b8308380c27ca4415d5024054\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>法拉第未来盘中暴涨超70%，将举办全球投资人会议</title>\n<style 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23:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周一，法拉第未来盘中暴涨，截至发稿涨幅超70%！公司此前宣布将于美国西部时间12月15日举办全球投资人会议，会上将更新FF 91 Futurist的车辆交付计划。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be04d5b8308380c27ca4415d5024054\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ac86bdab506d9898920e00d5d818b2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130486131","content_text":"周一，法拉第未来盘中暴涨，截至发稿涨幅超70%！公司此前宣布将于美国西部时间12月15日举办全球投资人会议，会上将更新FF 91 Futurist的车辆交付计划。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665486086,"gmtCreate":1667443130345,"gmtModify":1667443132707,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哦豁","listText":"哦豁","text":"哦豁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665486086","repostId":"1102296421","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684899292,"gmtCreate":1660193960619,"gmtModify":1660193960619,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Art Co., Ltd.(TKAT)$这都不是实时信息了，直接玩垂直弹跳","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350995877","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323381199,"gmtCreate":1615303310111,"gmtModify":1703487098633,"author":{"id":"3567039066577882","authorId":"3567039066577882","name":"霸道虎杨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bef7cdabc52f207c2423bcdc4214aa5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567039066577882","authorIdStr":"3567039066577882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLSI\">$Greenwich Lifesciences Inc(GLSI)$</a>哇哦，起高了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLSI\">$Greenwich Lifesciences Inc(GLSI)$</a>哇哦，起高了","text":"$Greenwich Lifesciences 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