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JacksonPuah
2021-11-12
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-11-11
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-11-10
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-11-09
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-11-04
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-11-01
666
@JacksonPuah:
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-11-01
666
抱歉，原内容已删除
JacksonPuah
2021-10-29
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-10-28
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-10-27
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-10-26
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-10-25
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-10-23
666
抱歉，原内容已删除
JacksonPuah
2021-10-22
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-10-19
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-10-18
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-10-17
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
G
JacksonPuah
2021-10-17
$富途控股(FUTU)$
666
JacksonPuah
2021-10-16
[得意] [得意]
“纸糊的”美债上限对股市有何影响？
JacksonPuah
2021-10-16
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
Hi
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","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$G","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/089e94808b0398c92eb8aefe797e306a","width":"640","height":"976"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827139924","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827130267,"gmtCreate":1634431331120,"gmtModify":1634431331705,"author":{"id":"3568450559675412","authorId":"3568450559675412","name":"JacksonPuah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f40222548902e469a39a4e0cca88f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568450559675412","authorIdStr":"3568450559675412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$</a>666","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$</a>666","text":"$富途控股(FUTU)$666","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01bb9b244de8125cd7651df0535c89fc","width":"750","height":"2390"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827130267","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824589530,"gmtCreate":1634339088598,"gmtModify":1634339088705,"author":{"id":"3568450559675412","authorId":"3568450559675412","name":"JacksonPuah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f40222548902e469a39a4e0cca88f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568450559675412","authorIdStr":"3568450559675412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意] [得意] ","listText":"[得意] [得意] ","text":"[得意] [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824589530","repostId":"2175160431","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2175160431","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"我们不推荐股票，我们只是财富的情报员。【美港股】每日收评/新股聚焦/热股视点/财报研读/周报前瞻，独家解密大V情报尽收囊中！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"美港股观察社","id":"1055988462","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3ab350389b4f17afb81b016ba802bb"},"pubTimestamp":1634281385,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2175160431?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 15:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“纸糊的”美债上限对股市有何影响？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2175160431","media":"美港股观察社","summary":"从2013年开始，在外流通的美债规模开始超过法定美债上限。","content":"<p>前段时间，美国债务上限问题引起了大家的关注，美股也有一些波动，不过最近美国民主党和共和党领导人暂时达成一致意见，将触及债务上限时间延长至12月初，暂时缓解市场的担忧。</p>\n<p>不过，美国债务上限问题已经不是第一次了。其实，早在1939年，美国就设定了债务上限，只不过债务上限和纸糊的差不多，到现在为止，债务上限提高次数超过100次。</p>\n<p>既然债务一直提高还有人愿意埋单，美国两党开始风骚起来了，把债务上限作为政治筹码，以此获得政治利益，全然没有要解决债务问题的意思。我们先来看看近20年的历史情况。</p>\n<p>从图中可以看到，从2001年至今，美债上限从5万亿美元出头，提高到28.9万亿美元，且不说近20年债务上限提高了将近6倍，图中两条曲线也非常有意思。黄色线是法定债务上限，蓝色线是美债在外流通的规模。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ed803279604e3ea70dbdd1354eeb5c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在2013年之前，蓝线低于黄线，这意味着在外流通的美债规模确实低于美债上限。但是从2013年开始，在外流通的美债规模开始超过法定美债上限。这是因为当时暂停了美债上限，也就是美国政府发债不会受到美债上限限制。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e05507fc3f744198fd7e02eb1444055\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美债上限不仅可以提高，还能暂停。等到两党唇枪舌战完之后，再把美债上限提高。</p>\n<p>图中灰色的时间段，表示的是美债上限暂停的时间段。自从这招用过之后，各届政府表示真香，暂停的时间越来越长。上届川普政府在2019年，一下子就把美债上限暂停了两年，加上2020年新冠疫情对经济造成重创，美国政府把水龙头开到最大，截至今年5月份，美债在外流通规模，远远超过上届政府设定的法定债务上限。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ed803279604e3ea70dbdd1354eeb5c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>以前是把上限提高后再发债，从2013年开始，基本上就是先发了债，再提高上限，美债上限形同虚设。</p>\n<p>那么，这次美国两党利用美债上限作为政治博弈的筹码，各自又在打什么小算盘呢？</p>\n<p>其实现在的债务上限可以由在任的民主党自主提高，但是他们不愿意，因为这会成为共和党抓住的把柄，以此在明年的美国中期选举中攻击民主党。民主党当然不愿意造成这种局面，所以希望共和党一同制定债务上限，那就没有把柄了。</p>\n<p>那么，美债上限对股市有什么影响呢？</p>\n<p>在美债上限讨论期间，往往给市场带来了不确定性，这时候股市具有相当的波动性。例如2011年的美债上限危机，叠加了标普公司降级了美债评级，导致市场大跌，从7月底到8月初，道指暴跌超过2000点，跌幅超过15%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b698c118472487b91d2e451fe8cdf54\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>到了2013年的债务上限危机，虽然波动不如2011年那次大，道指区间波动大概1000点，振幅6%左右，不过持续了三个月的时间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5941865a73594865a67f9c6096da4bef\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而这次市场的反应，明显比前面两次平淡多了，跌幅不超过5%。这是因为市场都知道了，债务上限问题不过是美国两党的政治把戏，上限肯定会提高的，反正都提高超过100次了，不差这一次。</p>\n<p>市场担心的是不确定性，同样的事情经历多了，即使是负面事件，只要在预期内，就不会有大波动，更不会造成暴跌。反而在不确定的债务上限消除后，很可能重新迎来上涨。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“纸糊的”美债上限对股市有何影响？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“纸糊的”美债上限对股市有何影响？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1055988462\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3ab350389b4f17afb81b016ba802bb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美港股观察社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-15 15:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>前段时间，美国债务上限问题引起了大家的关注，美股也有一些波动，不过最近美国民主党和共和党领导人暂时达成一致意见，将触及债务上限时间延长至12月初，暂时缓解市场的担忧。</p>\n<p>不过，美国债务上限问题已经不是第一次了。其实，早在1939年，美国就设定了债务上限，只不过债务上限和纸糊的差不多，到现在为止，债务上限提高次数超过100次。</p>\n<p>既然债务一直提高还有人愿意埋单，美国两党开始风骚起来了，把债务上限作为政治筹码，以此获得政治利益，全然没有要解决债务问题的意思。我们先来看看近20年的历史情况。</p>\n<p>从图中可以看到，从2001年至今，美债上限从5万亿美元出头，提高到28.9万亿美元，且不说近20年债务上限提高了将近6倍，图中两条曲线也非常有意思。黄色线是法定债务上限，蓝色线是美债在外流通的规模。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ed803279604e3ea70dbdd1354eeb5c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在2013年之前，蓝线低于黄线，这意味着在外流通的美债规模确实低于美债上限。但是从2013年开始，在外流通的美债规模开始超过法定美债上限。这是因为当时暂停了美债上限，也就是美国政府发债不会受到美债上限限制。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e05507fc3f744198fd7e02eb1444055\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美债上限不仅可以提高，还能暂停。等到两党唇枪舌战完之后，再把美债上限提高。</p>\n<p>图中灰色的时间段，表示的是美债上限暂停的时间段。自从这招用过之后，各届政府表示真香，暂停的时间越来越长。上届川普政府在2019年，一下子就把美债上限暂停了两年，加上2020年新冠疫情对经济造成重创，美国政府把水龙头开到最大，截至今年5月份，美债在外流通规模，远远超过上届政府设定的法定债务上限。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ed803279604e3ea70dbdd1354eeb5c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>以前是把上限提高后再发债，从2013年开始，基本上就是先发了债，再提高上限，美债上限形同虚设。</p>\n<p>那么，这次美国两党利用美债上限作为政治博弈的筹码，各自又在打什么小算盘呢？</p>\n<p>其实现在的债务上限可以由在任的民主党自主提高，但是他们不愿意，因为这会成为共和党抓住的把柄，以此在明年的美国中期选举中攻击民主党。民主党当然不愿意造成这种局面，所以希望共和党一同制定债务上限，那就没有把柄了。</p>\n<p>那么，美债上限对股市有什么影响呢？</p>\n<p>在美债上限讨论期间，往往给市场带来了不确定性，这时候股市具有相当的波动性。例如2011年的美债上限危机，叠加了标普公司降级了美债评级，导致市场大跌，从7月底到8月初，道指暴跌超过2000点，跌幅超过15%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b698c118472487b91d2e451fe8cdf54\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>到了2013年的债务上限危机，虽然波动不如2011年那次大，道指区间波动大概1000点，振幅6%左右，不过持续了三个月的时间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5941865a73594865a67f9c6096da4bef\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而这次市场的反应，明显比前面两次平淡多了，跌幅不超过5%。这是因为市场都知道了，债务上限问题不过是美国两党的政治把戏，上限肯定会提高的，反正都提高超过100次了，不差这一次。</p>\n<p>市场担心的是不确定性，同样的事情经历多了，即使是负面事件，只要在预期内，就不会有大波动，更不会造成暴跌。反而在不确定的债务上限消除后，很可能重新迎来上涨。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6ee5b13a9000ee039be3fbe810ecd4d","relate_stocks":{"GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2175160431","content_text":"前段时间，美国债务上限问题引起了大家的关注，美股也有一些波动，不过最近美国民主党和共和党领导人暂时达成一致意见，将触及债务上限时间延长至12月初，暂时缓解市场的担忧。\n不过，美国债务上限问题已经不是第一次了。其实，早在1939年，美国就设定了债务上限，只不过债务上限和纸糊的差不多，到现在为止，债务上限提高次数超过100次。\n既然债务一直提高还有人愿意埋单，美国两党开始风骚起来了，把债务上限作为政治筹码，以此获得政治利益，全然没有要解决债务问题的意思。我们先来看看近20年的历史情况。\n从图中可以看到，从2001年至今，美债上限从5万亿美元出头，提高到28.9万亿美元，且不说近20年债务上限提高了将近6倍，图中两条曲线也非常有意思。黄色线是法定债务上限，蓝色线是美债在外流通的规模。\n\n在2013年之前，蓝线低于黄线，这意味着在外流通的美债规模确实低于美债上限。但是从2013年开始，在外流通的美债规模开始超过法定美债上限。这是因为当时暂停了美债上限，也就是美国政府发债不会受到美债上限限制。\n\n美债上限不仅可以提高，还能暂停。等到两党唇枪舌战完之后，再把美债上限提高。\n图中灰色的时间段，表示的是美债上限暂停的时间段。自从这招用过之后，各届政府表示真香，暂停的时间越来越长。上届川普政府在2019年，一下子就把美债上限暂停了两年，加上2020年新冠疫情对经济造成重创，美国政府把水龙头开到最大，截至今年5月份，美债在外流通规模，远远超过上届政府设定的法定债务上限。\n\n以前是把上限提高后再发债，从2013年开始，基本上就是先发了债，再提高上限，美债上限形同虚设。\n那么，这次美国两党利用美债上限作为政治博弈的筹码，各自又在打什么小算盘呢？\n其实现在的债务上限可以由在任的民主党自主提高，但是他们不愿意，因为这会成为共和党抓住的把柄，以此在明年的美国中期选举中攻击民主党。民主党当然不愿意造成这种局面，所以希望共和党一同制定债务上限，那就没有把柄了。\n那么，美债上限对股市有什么影响呢？\n在美债上限讨论期间，往往给市场带来了不确定性，这时候股市具有相当的波动性。例如2011年的美债上限危机，叠加了标普公司降级了美债评级，导致市场大跌，从7月底到8月初，道指暴跌超过2000点，跌幅超过15%。\n\n到了2013年的债务上限危机，虽然波动不如2011年那次大，道指区间波动大概1000点，振幅6%左右，不过持续了三个月的时间。\n\n而这次市场的反应，明显比前面两次平淡多了，跌幅不超过5%。这是因为市场都知道了，债务上限问题不过是美国两党的政治把戏，上限肯定会提高的，反正都提高超过100次了，不差这一次。\n市场担心的是不确定性，同样的事情经历多了，即使是负面事件，只要在预期内，就不会有大波动，更不会造成暴跌。反而在不确定的债务上限消除后，很可能重新迎来上涨。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824517184,"gmtCreate":1634338908154,"gmtModify":1634338908263,"author":{"id":"3568450559675412","authorId":"3568450559675412","name":"JacksonPuah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f40222548902e469a39a4e0cca88f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568450559675412","authorIdStr":"3568450559675412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>G ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>G ","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$G","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/089e94808b0398c92eb8aefe797e306a","width":"640","height":"976"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827139924","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824589530,"gmtCreate":1634339088598,"gmtModify":1634339088705,"author":{"id":"3568450559675412","authorId":"3568450559675412","name":"JacksonPuah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f40222548902e469a39a4e0cca88f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568450559675412","authorIdStr":"3568450559675412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意] [得意] ","listText":"[得意] [得意] ","text":"[得意] [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824589530","repostId":"2175160431","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2175160431","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"我们不推荐股票，我们只是财富的情报员。【美港股】每日收评/新股聚焦/热股视点/财报研读/周报前瞻，独家解密大V情报尽收囊中！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"美港股观察社","id":"1055988462","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3ab350389b4f17afb81b016ba802bb"},"pubTimestamp":1634281385,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2175160431?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 15:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“纸糊的”美债上限对股市有何影响？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2175160431","media":"美港股观察社","summary":"从2013年开始，在外流通的美债规模开始超过法定美债上限。","content":"<p>前段时间，美国债务上限问题引起了大家的关注，美股也有一些波动，不过最近美国民主党和共和党领导人暂时达成一致意见，将触及债务上限时间延长至12月初，暂时缓解市场的担忧。</p>\n<p>不过，美国债务上限问题已经不是第一次了。其实，早在1939年，美国就设定了债务上限，只不过债务上限和纸糊的差不多，到现在为止，债务上限提高次数超过100次。</p>\n<p>既然债务一直提高还有人愿意埋单，美国两党开始风骚起来了，把债务上限作为政治筹码，以此获得政治利益，全然没有要解决债务问题的意思。我们先来看看近20年的历史情况。</p>\n<p>从图中可以看到，从2001年至今，美债上限从5万亿美元出头，提高到28.9万亿美元，且不说近20年债务上限提高了将近6倍，图中两条曲线也非常有意思。黄色线是法定债务上限，蓝色线是美债在外流通的规模。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ed803279604e3ea70dbdd1354eeb5c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在2013年之前，蓝线低于黄线，这意味着在外流通的美债规模确实低于美债上限。但是从2013年开始，在外流通的美债规模开始超过法定美债上限。这是因为当时暂停了美债上限，也就是美国政府发债不会受到美债上限限制。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e05507fc3f744198fd7e02eb1444055\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美债上限不仅可以提高，还能暂停。等到两党唇枪舌战完之后，再把美债上限提高。</p>\n<p>图中灰色的时间段，表示的是美债上限暂停的时间段。自从这招用过之后，各届政府表示真香，暂停的时间越来越长。上届川普政府在2019年，一下子就把美债上限暂停了两年，加上2020年新冠疫情对经济造成重创，美国政府把水龙头开到最大，截至今年5月份，美债在外流通规模，远远超过上届政府设定的法定债务上限。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ed803279604e3ea70dbdd1354eeb5c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>以前是把上限提高后再发债，从2013年开始，基本上就是先发了债，再提高上限，美债上限形同虚设。</p>\n<p>那么，这次美国两党利用美债上限作为政治博弈的筹码，各自又在打什么小算盘呢？</p>\n<p>其实现在的债务上限可以由在任的民主党自主提高，但是他们不愿意，因为这会成为共和党抓住的把柄，以此在明年的美国中期选举中攻击民主党。民主党当然不愿意造成这种局面，所以希望共和党一同制定债务上限，那就没有把柄了。</p>\n<p>那么，美债上限对股市有什么影响呢？</p>\n<p>在美债上限讨论期间，往往给市场带来了不确定性，这时候股市具有相当的波动性。例如2011年的美债上限危机，叠加了标普公司降级了美债评级，导致市场大跌，从7月底到8月初，道指暴跌超过2000点，跌幅超过15%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b698c118472487b91d2e451fe8cdf54\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>到了2013年的债务上限危机，虽然波动不如2011年那次大，道指区间波动大概1000点，振幅6%左右，不过持续了三个月的时间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5941865a73594865a67f9c6096da4bef\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而这次市场的反应，明显比前面两次平淡多了，跌幅不超过5%。这是因为市场都知道了，债务上限问题不过是美国两党的政治把戏，上限肯定会提高的，反正都提高超过100次了，不差这一次。</p>\n<p>市场担心的是不确定性，同样的事情经历多了，即使是负面事件，只要在预期内，就不会有大波动，更不会造成暴跌。反而在不确定的债务上限消除后，很可能重新迎来上涨。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“纸糊的”美债上限对股市有何影响？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“纸糊的”美债上限对股市有何影响？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1055988462\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3ab350389b4f17afb81b016ba802bb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美港股观察社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-15 15:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>前段时间，美国债务上限问题引起了大家的关注，美股也有一些波动，不过最近美国民主党和共和党领导人暂时达成一致意见，将触及债务上限时间延长至12月初，暂时缓解市场的担忧。</p>\n<p>不过，美国债务上限问题已经不是第一次了。其实，早在1939年，美国就设定了债务上限，只不过债务上限和纸糊的差不多，到现在为止，债务上限提高次数超过100次。</p>\n<p>既然债务一直提高还有人愿意埋单，美国两党开始风骚起来了，把债务上限作为政治筹码，以此获得政治利益，全然没有要解决债务问题的意思。我们先来看看近20年的历史情况。</p>\n<p>从图中可以看到，从2001年至今，美债上限从5万亿美元出头，提高到28.9万亿美元，且不说近20年债务上限提高了将近6倍，图中两条曲线也非常有意思。黄色线是法定债务上限，蓝色线是美债在外流通的规模。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ed803279604e3ea70dbdd1354eeb5c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在2013年之前，蓝线低于黄线，这意味着在外流通的美债规模确实低于美债上限。但是从2013年开始，在外流通的美债规模开始超过法定美债上限。这是因为当时暂停了美债上限，也就是美国政府发债不会受到美债上限限制。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e05507fc3f744198fd7e02eb1444055\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美债上限不仅可以提高，还能暂停。等到两党唇枪舌战完之后，再把美债上限提高。</p>\n<p>图中灰色的时间段，表示的是美债上限暂停的时间段。自从这招用过之后，各届政府表示真香，暂停的时间越来越长。上届川普政府在2019年，一下子就把美债上限暂停了两年，加上2020年新冠疫情对经济造成重创，美国政府把水龙头开到最大，截至今年5月份，美债在外流通规模，远远超过上届政府设定的法定债务上限。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ed803279604e3ea70dbdd1354eeb5c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>以前是把上限提高后再发债，从2013年开始，基本上就是先发了债，再提高上限，美债上限形同虚设。</p>\n<p>那么，这次美国两党利用美债上限作为政治博弈的筹码，各自又在打什么小算盘呢？</p>\n<p>其实现在的债务上限可以由在任的民主党自主提高，但是他们不愿意，因为这会成为共和党抓住的把柄，以此在明年的美国中期选举中攻击民主党。民主党当然不愿意造成这种局面，所以希望共和党一同制定债务上限，那就没有把柄了。</p>\n<p>那么，美债上限对股市有什么影响呢？</p>\n<p>在美债上限讨论期间，往往给市场带来了不确定性，这时候股市具有相当的波动性。例如2011年的美债上限危机，叠加了标普公司降级了美债评级，导致市场大跌，从7月底到8月初，道指暴跌超过2000点，跌幅超过15%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b698c118472487b91d2e451fe8cdf54\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>到了2013年的债务上限危机，虽然波动不如2011年那次大，道指区间波动大概1000点，振幅6%左右，不过持续了三个月的时间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5941865a73594865a67f9c6096da4bef\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而这次市场的反应，明显比前面两次平淡多了，跌幅不超过5%。这是因为市场都知道了，债务上限问题不过是美国两党的政治把戏，上限肯定会提高的，反正都提高超过100次了，不差这一次。</p>\n<p>市场担心的是不确定性，同样的事情经历多了，即使是负面事件，只要在预期内，就不会有大波动，更不会造成暴跌。反而在不确定的债务上限消除后，很可能重新迎来上涨。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6ee5b13a9000ee039be3fbe810ecd4d","relate_stocks":{"GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2175160431","content_text":"前段时间，美国债务上限问题引起了大家的关注，美股也有一些波动，不过最近美国民主党和共和党领导人暂时达成一致意见，将触及债务上限时间延长至12月初，暂时缓解市场的担忧。\n不过，美国债务上限问题已经不是第一次了。其实，早在1939年，美国就设定了债务上限，只不过债务上限和纸糊的差不多，到现在为止，债务上限提高次数超过100次。\n既然债务一直提高还有人愿意埋单，美国两党开始风骚起来了，把债务上限作为政治筹码，以此获得政治利益，全然没有要解决债务问题的意思。我们先来看看近20年的历史情况。\n从图中可以看到，从2001年至今，美债上限从5万亿美元出头，提高到28.9万亿美元，且不说近20年债务上限提高了将近6倍，图中两条曲线也非常有意思。黄色线是法定债务上限，蓝色线是美债在外流通的规模。\n\n在2013年之前，蓝线低于黄线，这意味着在外流通的美债规模确实低于美债上限。但是从2013年开始，在外流通的美债规模开始超过法定美债上限。这是因为当时暂停了美债上限，也就是美国政府发债不会受到美债上限限制。\n\n美债上限不仅可以提高，还能暂停。等到两党唇枪舌战完之后，再把美债上限提高。\n图中灰色的时间段，表示的是美债上限暂停的时间段。自从这招用过之后，各届政府表示真香，暂停的时间越来越长。上届川普政府在2019年，一下子就把美债上限暂停了两年，加上2020年新冠疫情对经济造成重创，美国政府把水龙头开到最大，截至今年5月份，美债在外流通规模，远远超过上届政府设定的法定债务上限。\n\n以前是把上限提高后再发债，从2013年开始，基本上就是先发了债，再提高上限，美债上限形同虚设。\n那么，这次美国两党利用美债上限作为政治博弈的筹码，各自又在打什么小算盘呢？\n其实现在的债务上限可以由在任的民主党自主提高，但是他们不愿意，因为这会成为共和党抓住的把柄，以此在明年的美国中期选举中攻击民主党。民主党当然不愿意造成这种局面，所以希望共和党一同制定债务上限，那就没有把柄了。\n那么，美债上限对股市有什么影响呢？\n在美债上限讨论期间，往往给市场带来了不确定性，这时候股市具有相当的波动性。例如2011年的美债上限危机，叠加了标普公司降级了美债评级，导致市场大跌，从7月底到8月初，道指暴跌超过2000点，跌幅超过15%。\n\n到了2013年的债务上限危机，虽然波动不如2011年那次大，道指区间波动大概1000点，振幅6%左右，不过持续了三个月的时间。\n\n而这次市场的反应，明显比前面两次平淡多了，跌幅不超过5%。这是因为市场都知道了，债务上限问题不过是美国两党的政治把戏，上限肯定会提高的，反正都提高超过100次了，不差这一次。\n市场担心的是不确定性，同样的事情经历多了，即使是负面事件，只要在预期内，就不会有大波动，更不会造成暴跌。反而在不确定的债务上限消除后，很可能重新迎来上涨。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824517184,"gmtCreate":1634338908154,"gmtModify":1634338908263,"author":{"id":"3568450559675412","authorId":"3568450559675412","name":"JacksonPuah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f40222548902e469a39a4e0cca88f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568450559675412","authorIdStr":"3568450559675412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>666","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$666","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42475b63a65c8ada139817dd5a81e66a","width":"640","height":"976"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825093845","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822087816,"gmtCreate":1634079750554,"gmtModify":1634079869671,"author":{"id":"3568450559675412","authorId":"3568450559675412","name":"JacksonPuah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f40222548902e469a39a4e0cca88f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568450559675412","authorIdStr":"3568450559675412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822087816","repostId":"828634832","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":828634832,"gmtCreate":1633909211902,"gmtModify":1633922601558,"author":{"id":"3562206499105387","authorId":"3562206499105387","name":"CY_Ng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba016392472f02387b5ae5505dbc524","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562206499105387","authorIdStr":"3562206499105387"},"themes":[],"title":"阿里巴巴股价到达底部了吗？可以开仓了吗？","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> 阿里巴巴不知不觉已经上市七年了。公司营业额也上涨了接近十倍，那公司股价有上涨十倍吗？答案是没有。阿里巴巴上市是股价大概是$93美元，最近收市是股价大概在$160美元。如果你在2014年上市买入阿里巴巴，7年后大概得到了73%回报。很多价值投资者很喜欢买入阿里巴巴因为公司的高增长，美丽的资产负债表，再加上强劲的现金流，绝对是家被低估的好公司。连价值投资大师查理芒格都买入了阿里巴巴，而且最近下跌再加仓买入。为什么营业额上涨了10倍，股价连翻倍都没有呢？因为公司的企业价值收入比估值(Enterprise Value / Revenue)从上市时时的25倍下跌到现在的3.5倍。当公司的估值从25倍下跌至15倍左右时，一堆人进场买入，原因是估值便宜了，但之后几年慢慢的下跌至10倍左右，有更多人人觉得这只价值股更价值了。万万没想到之后因为很多的坏消息，估值再不停的下跌，9倍，8倍，6倍，5倍.......到现在的3.5倍。请问阿里巴巴的底部在哪里？没人知道。我们看看美国的亚马逊<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> ，虽然两家公司的生意不是100%一样，但可以拿来参考参考。阿里巴巴的增长速度比亚马逊来得高，理论上估值应该比较高。但同样的企业价值收入比估值，亚马逊是3.8倍，比起阿里巴巴的3.5倍来得高。所以我觉得阿里巴巴的股价大概已在底部了。除非突然有更坏的消息再影响公司的基本面，不然下跌空间已是有限。我打算用总资金的10%来投资阿里巴巴，先会在现在价位买入三分一，如果股价再下跌会慢慢买入到总仓位的10%。投资阿里巴巴的原因是：- 看好","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> 阿里巴巴不知不觉已经上市七年了。公司营业额也上涨了接近十倍，那公司股价有上涨十倍吗？答案是没有。阿里巴巴上市是股价大概是$93美元，最近收市是股价大概在$160美元。如果你在2014年上市买入阿里巴巴，7年后大概得到了73%回报。很多价值投资者很喜欢买入阿里巴巴因为公司的高增长，美丽的资产负债表，再加上强劲的现金流，绝对是家被低估的好公司。连价值投资大师查理芒格都买入了阿里巴巴，而且最近下跌再加仓买入。为什么营业额上涨了10倍，股价连翻倍都没有呢？因为公司的企业价值收入比估值(Enterprise Value / Revenue)从上市时时的25倍下跌到现在的3.5倍。当公司的估值从25倍下跌至15倍左右时，一堆人进场买入，原因是估值便宜了，但之后几年慢慢的下跌至10倍左右，有更多人人觉得这只价值股更价值了。万万没想到之后因为很多的坏消息，估值再不停的下跌，9倍，8倍，6倍，5倍.......到现在的3.5倍。请问阿里巴巴的底部在哪里？没人知道。我们看看美国的亚马逊<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> ，虽然两家公司的生意不是100%一样，但可以拿来参考参考。阿里巴巴的增长速度比亚马逊来得高，理论上估值应该比较高。但同样的企业价值收入比估值，亚马逊是3.8倍，比起阿里巴巴的3.5倍来得高。所以我觉得阿里巴巴的股价大概已在底部了。除非突然有更坏的消息再影响公司的基本面，不然下跌空间已是有限。我打算用总资金的10%来投资阿里巴巴，先会在现在价位买入三分一，如果股价再下跌会慢慢买入到总仓位的10%。投资阿里巴巴的原因是：- 看好","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 阿里巴巴不知不觉已经上市七年了。公司营业额也上涨了接近十倍，那公司股价有上涨十倍吗？答案是没有。阿里巴巴上市是股价大概是$93美元，最近收市是股价大概在$160美元。如果你在2014年上市买入阿里巴巴，7年后大概得到了73%回报。很多价值投资者很喜欢买入阿里巴巴因为公司的高增长，美丽的资产负债表，再加上强劲的现金流，绝对是家被低估的好公司。连价值投资大师查理芒格都买入了阿里巴巴，而且最近下跌再加仓买入。为什么营业额上涨了10倍，股价连翻倍都没有呢？因为公司的企业价值收入比估值(Enterprise Value / Revenue)从上市时时的25倍下跌到现在的3.5倍。当公司的估值从25倍下跌至15倍左右时，一堆人进场买入，原因是估值便宜了，但之后几年慢慢的下跌至10倍左右，有更多人人觉得这只价值股更价值了。万万没想到之后因为很多的坏消息，估值再不停的下跌，9倍，8倍，6倍，5倍.......到现在的3.5倍。请问阿里巴巴的底部在哪里？没人知道。我们看看美国的亚马逊$亚马逊(AMZN)$ ，虽然两家公司的生意不是100%一样，但可以拿来参考参考。阿里巴巴的增长速度比亚马逊来得高，理论上估值应该比较高。但同样的企业价值收入比估值，亚马逊是3.8倍，比起阿里巴巴的3.5倍来得高。所以我觉得阿里巴巴的股价大概已在底部了。除非突然有更坏的消息再影响公司的基本面，不然下跌空间已是有限。我打算用总资金的10%来投资阿里巴巴，先会在现在价位买入三分一，如果股价再下跌会慢慢买入到总仓位的10%。投资阿里巴巴的原因是：- 看好","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737c02c208201aa3a16e0106c3c76231","width":"293","height":"170"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79518e823c1b9ee40b274ff3d4d76aba","width":"833","height":"423"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/307f093ce0d59aa00b5645f41a23690e","width":"819","height":"596"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828634832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829756050,"gmtCreate":1633561365086,"gmtModify":1633561365086,"author":{"id":"3568450559675412","authorId":"3568450559675412","name":"JacksonPuah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f40222548902e469a39a4e0cca88f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568450559675412","authorIdStr":"3568450559675412"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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