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谦虚的赌徒
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好好好好好
谦虚的赌徒
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少数鸽派言论不值得关注
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谦虚的赌徒
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这支值得买吗
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上上上上上
谦虚的赌徒
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加油加油上上上
谦虚的赌徒
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[微笑]
美国国债收益率飙升愈演愈烈，美联储会“就范”吗？
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对银行股民是个强力的打击
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疫情不止，行情不止
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c52583a40004df95e89f27da315654a\" tg-width=\"1216\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Kashkari讲话前，本周五稍早，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德甚至表示，因通胀上升速度快于之前预期，他预计，美联储可能最早2022年、即明年末开始加息。</p>\n<p>Kashkari此后提到了点阵图，称点阵图本来应该是提供鸽派前瞻指引的工具，最终却成了提供鹰派前瞻指引的工具，“我依然认为我们应该干掉‘点阵图’。”</p>\n<p>美联储主席鲍威尔在周三会后的新闻发布会上说，投资者应对点阵图的预测持高度怀疑态度，不要照单全收，因为点阵图对未来利率走势的预测并不是很好，这是由于它的不确定性非常高。鲍威尔承认，本次会议算是“谈论了讨论缩减QE购债（taper）”，但又说那不是正式的讨论，“加息尚在遥远的未来”。</p>\n<p>华尔街见闻文章此后评论称，美联储本次会议声明最大的变化是，非常肯定疫苗接种对经济的积极影响。虽然鲍威尔本次所提到Taper的触发条件与之前并无区别，但他明显已经开始给Taper的正式讨论打预防针。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储少数鸽派唱反调：至少2023年底都不应加息</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储少数鸽派唱反调：至少2023年底都不应加息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-19 07:58 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633314><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从最新言论看，明尼阿波利斯联储主席Neel Kashkari无疑是目前美联储内部为数不多的鸽派。\nKashkari本周五表示，在本周美联储公布的截至2023年末经济展望期间内，他都预计不会加息。他希望，至少到2023年末，美联储都保持当前的近零利率，以便让美国的劳动力市场恢复到疫情前的水平。\nKashkari认为，最近价格上涨是由于经济复工驱动，这样的涨价将随着供应受限减少而消减。他说：“我的确...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633314\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633314","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144088127","content_text":"从最新言论看，明尼阿波利斯联储主席Neel Kashkari无疑是目前美联储内部为数不多的鸽派。\nKashkari本周五表示，在本周美联储公布的截至2023年末经济展望期间内，他都预计不会加息。他希望，至少到2023年末，美联储都保持当前的近零利率，以便让美国的劳动力市场恢复到疫情前的水平。\nKashkari认为，最近价格上涨是由于经济复工驱动，这样的涨价将随着供应受限减少而消减。他说：“我的确相信，通胀数据升高会是暂时的。”\nKashkari指出，美国的就业人数相比疫情爆发前还至少低700万。他说，只要通胀预期还没有脱离目标，我们就应该拿出耐心，我们需要一些时间才能真正地实现充分就业。所谓充分就业是指，就算不会比疫情前更强劲，起码也要达到疫情前的水平。\nKashkari今年没有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的投票权，2023年将轮值拥有投票权。相比本周稍早美联储多数官员透露的加息预期时间表，Kashkari的言论无疑偏向鸽派。\n本周三美联储会后宣布，将联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，但上调了这一政策目标的上下限——IOER和ON RRP两大管理利率。同时公布的点阵图显示，70%以上联储官员预计2023年会加息。以一次加息25个基点估算，60%以上的官员预计到2023年底，会加息两次。而今年3月美联储上次公布的点阵图中，预计2023年加息的官员还不到总人数的40%。这意味着，多数美联储决策者都预计，加息会比他们之前预期来得早。\nKashkari讲话前，本周五稍早，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德甚至表示，因通胀上升速度快于之前预期，他预计，美联储可能最早2022年、即明年末开始加息。\nKashkari此后提到了点阵图，称点阵图本来应该是提供鸽派前瞻指引的工具，最终却成了提供鹰派前瞻指引的工具，“我依然认为我们应该干掉‘点阵图’。”\n美联储主席鲍威尔在周三会后的新闻发布会上说，投资者应对点阵图的预测持高度怀疑态度，不要照单全收，因为点阵图对未来利率走势的预测并不是很好，这是由于它的不确定性非常高。鲍威尔承认，本次会议算是“谈论了讨论缩减QE购债（taper）”，但又说那不是正式的讨论，“加息尚在遥远的未来”。\n华尔街见闻文章此后评论称，美联储本次会议声明最大的变化是，非常肯定疫苗接种对经济的积极影响。虽然鲍威尔本次所提到Taper的触发条件与之前并无区别，但他明显已经开始给Taper的正式讨论打预防针。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165266388,"gmtCreate":1624147411444,"gmtModify":1631890095192,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这支值得买吗","listText":"这支值得买吗","text":"这支值得买吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1f461ab3cbe34da7a6673a0f0331ae","width":"1125","height":"3003"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165266388","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":162734450,"gmtCreate":1624075305870,"gmtModify":1634011013830,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上上上上上","listText":"上上上上上","text":"上上上上上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/501d8bce024eb19164afb8f122bb6aa3","width":"1125","height":"3166"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162734450","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168879618,"gmtCreate":1623972751334,"gmtModify":1634025110749,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加油加油上上上","listText":"加油加油上上上","text":"加油加油上上上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dc117a58794157e5acc0e99d3ed7c6c","width":"224","height":"224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168879618","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359049864,"gmtCreate":1616306891758,"gmtModify":1634526394708,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359049864","repostId":"2120549145","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120549145","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616299535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120549145?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-21 12:05","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美国国债收益率飙升愈演愈烈，美联储会“就范”吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120549145","media":"FX168","summary":"英国媒体周六报道称，美联储正陷入与市场的“摊牌”中。英国《金融时报》称，尽管鲍威尔对美国国债的收益率采取了放任不管的方法，但与他在欧元区的同行相比，投资者仍在质疑美联储可以允许这种利率运行多长时间。美国国债被抛售反映出通胀和增长预期大幅提升，经济学家怀疑美联储最终将被迫提出首次加息。","content":"<p>英国媒体周六（3月20日）报道称，美联储正陷入与市场的“摊牌”中。</p>\n<p>本周，美联储主席鲍威尔承认迅速发展的经济前景以及通货膨胀率进一步攀升的可能，同时强调了他在可预见的未来将利率保持在最低水平的承诺。</p>\n<p>但是，这种对通货膨胀的宽松态度正在侵蚀美国长期政府债券的价格，在全球市场上引发了涟漪。英国《金融时报》称，尽管鲍威尔对美国国债的收益率采取了放任不管的方法，但与他在欧元区的同行相比，投资者仍在质疑美联储可以允许这种利率运行多长时间。</p>\n<p>Columbia Threadneedle Investments全球固定收益负责人Gene Tannuzzo表示：“重要的不是收益率水平，而是其与风险资产之间的相互作用方式。” “如果收益率以导致股市下跌和信贷息差扩大的速度上升，那么鲍威尔将更加担忧。”</p>\n<p>在过去的一周中，基准十年期美国国债收益率跳升至1.75％，几天前约为1.6％。彭博巴克莱（Bloomberg Barclays）指数显示，自今年年初以来，10年或更长期的美国国债价格下跌了近15％。如果这些损失持续下去，那么今年第一季度将是至少自1970年代初以来美国国债遭遇最严重的一次抛售。</p>\n<p>美国国债被抛售反映出通胀和增长预期大幅提升，经济学家怀疑美联储最终将被迫提出首次加息。</p>\n<p>欧洲央行担心公司和个人的借贷成本可能会有害地增加，因此采取措施以抵制其国债收益率的上涨。相比之下，美联储主席表现得并未有任何不安，这与2020年3月的情形形成鲜明对比，当时决策者就混乱的市场走势与银行和其他市场参与者保持一致。</p>\n<p>抛售的迅速开始蔓延到股票和信贷市场，这激怒了投资者。2月份美国国债拍卖表现不佳之后，国债收益率甚至突破了今年最高的一些预期，引发了波动性交易。</p>\n<p>鲍威尔周三再次驳回了应该对21亿美元美国政府债券市场的近期波动担忧的疑虑，重申各种指标的财务状况仍然“高度宽松”，而央行只会担心可能破坏货币市场支持经济复苏的“无序”举动。为说明这一点，他表示无意调整美联储每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划。</p>\n<p>对冲基金高级投资组合经理Rish Bhandari表示：“市场可能会迫使他们改变其行为，但目前美联储决策者明确表示，他们不希望直接参与对收益率曲线产生影响的行为。”</p>\n<p>PGIM固定收益部高级投资组合经理Mike Collins警告说，美国国债收益率的再次大幅上升可能会考验他们的立场。</p>\n<p>他说：“金融状况确实仍然很宽松，但是如果利率再上升0.5至1个百分点，那的确会放慢脚步。”股票和信贷市场的反弹可能也足够严重，以至于促使美联储进行口头干预，甚至转向购买更多长期债务的措施。</p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国国债收益率飙升愈演愈烈，美联储会“就范”吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-21 12:05 北京时间 <a href=https://news.fx168.com/bank/fed/2103/4838373.shtml><strong>FX168</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英国媒体周六（3月20日）报道称，美联储正陷入与市场的“摊牌”中。\n本周，美联储主席鲍威尔承认迅速发展的经济前景以及通货膨胀率进一步攀升的可能，同时强调了他在可预见的未来将利率保持在最低水平的承诺。\n但是，这种对通货膨胀的宽松态度正在侵蚀美国长期政府债券的价格，在全球市场上引发了涟漪。英国《金融时报》称，尽管鲍威尔对美国国债的收益率采取了放任不管的方法，但与他在欧元区的同行相比，投资者仍在质疑...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.fx168.com/bank/fed/2103/4838373.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a56aa88d539d7b65b8089a421c05150c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://news.fx168.com/bank/fed/2103/4838373.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120549145","content_text":"英国媒体周六（3月20日）报道称，美联储正陷入与市场的“摊牌”中。\n本周，美联储主席鲍威尔承认迅速发展的经济前景以及通货膨胀率进一步攀升的可能，同时强调了他在可预见的未来将利率保持在最低水平的承诺。\n但是，这种对通货膨胀的宽松态度正在侵蚀美国长期政府债券的价格，在全球市场上引发了涟漪。英国《金融时报》称，尽管鲍威尔对美国国债的收益率采取了放任不管的方法，但与他在欧元区的同行相比，投资者仍在质疑美联储可以允许这种利率运行多长时间。\nColumbia Threadneedle Investments全球固定收益负责人Gene Tannuzzo表示：“重要的不是收益率水平，而是其与风险资产之间的相互作用方式。” “如果收益率以导致股市下跌和信贷息差扩大的速度上升，那么鲍威尔将更加担忧。”\n在过去的一周中，基准十年期美国国债收益率跳升至1.75％，几天前约为1.6％。彭博巴克莱（Bloomberg Barclays）指数显示，自今年年初以来，10年或更长期的美国国债价格下跌了近15％。如果这些损失持续下去，那么今年第一季度将是至少自1970年代初以来美国国债遭遇最严重的一次抛售。\n美国国债被抛售反映出通胀和增长预期大幅提升，经济学家怀疑美联储最终将被迫提出首次加息。\n欧洲央行担心公司和个人的借贷成本可能会有害地增加，因此采取措施以抵制其国债收益率的上涨。相比之下，美联储主席表现得并未有任何不安，这与2020年3月的情形形成鲜明对比，当时决策者就混乱的市场走势与银行和其他市场参与者保持一致。\n抛售的迅速开始蔓延到股票和信贷市场，这激怒了投资者。2月份美国国债拍卖表现不佳之后，国债收益率甚至突破了今年最高的一些预期，引发了波动性交易。\n鲍威尔周三再次驳回了应该对21亿美元美国政府债券市场的近期波动担忧的疑虑，重申各种指标的财务状况仍然“高度宽松”，而央行只会担心可能破坏货币市场支持经济复苏的“无序”举动。为说明这一点，他表示无意调整美联储每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划。\n对冲基金高级投资组合经理Rish Bhandari表示：“市场可能会迫使他们改变其行为，但目前美联储决策者明确表示，他们不希望直接参与对收益率曲线产生影响的行为。”\nPGIM固定收益部高级投资组合经理Mike Collins警告说，美国国债收益率的再次大幅上升可能会考验他们的立场。\n他说：“金融状况确实仍然很宽松，但是如果利率再上升0.5至1个百分点，那的确会放慢脚步。”股票和信贷市场的反弹可能也足够严重，以至于促使美联储进行口头干预，甚至转向购买更多长期债务的措施。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"BND":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359049039,"gmtCreate":1616306850221,"gmtModify":1634526395074,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对银行股民是个强力的打击","listText":"对银行股民是个强力的打击","text":"对银行股民是个强力的打击","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359049039","repostId":"2120911091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120911091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616294992,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120911091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-21 10:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美联储表态SLR到期不续，什么是SLR？如何影响市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120911091","media":"第一财经","summary":"3月19日，美联储表示，补充杠杆率的减免措施将于3月31日到期，将采取适当行动，以确保SLR的任何变动不会削弱银行资本金要求的整体力度。美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。2020年4月1日，美联储实施“将美国国债和存放美联储资产从SLR 指标扣除”的豁免条款。SLR政策到期如何影响市场中金公司认为，SLR政策若未能顺利延期，美债利率可能有进一步上行压力。","content":"<div>\n<p>美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。3月19日，美联储表示，补充杠杆率（SLR）的减免措施将于3月31日到期，将采取适当行动，以确保SLR的任何变动不会削弱银行资本金要求的整体力度。美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。美联储计划重新评估SLR，以确保它在“高储备”环境下仍能发挥作用。受此影响，美国10年期国债收益率短线跳升重返1.7%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://yicai.com/news/100992861.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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href=http://yicai.com/news/100992861.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。3月19日，美联储表示，补充杠杆率（SLR）的减免措施将于3月31日到期，将采取适当行动，以确保SLR的任何变动不会削弱银行资本金要求的整体力度。美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。美联储计划重新评估SLR，以确保它在“高储备”环境下仍能发挥作用。受此影响，美国10年期国债收益率短线跳升重返1.7%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://yicai.com/news/100992861.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://yicai.com/news/100992861.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120911091","content_text":"美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。3月19日，美联储表示，补充杠杆率（SLR）的减免措施将于3月31日到期，将采取适当行动，以确保SLR的任何变动不会削弱银行资本金要求的整体力度。美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。美联储计划重新评估SLR，以确保它在“高储备”环境下仍能发挥作用。受此影响，美国10年期国债收益率短线跳升重返1.7%，现报1.742%。什么是SLRSLR是一种美联储针对商业银行的资本充足率指标，金融危机之后美联储修改了SLR相关的规定，对美国的大型银行额外杠杆施加限制，以防范银行系统风险。 2020年4月1日，美联储实施“将美国国债和存放美联储资产从SLR 指标扣除”的豁免条款（以下称 SLR 豁免条款）。该条款将于2021年3 月31日到期。新时代证券表示，1月底以来，美国债券市场内部出现了一个跷跷板现象，那就是长端美债利率上升的同时，短端美债利率下降。这和美国财政部在美联储的存款账户（treasury general account，TGA）缩减，以及银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免期限将至有关。SLR政策到期如何影响市场中金公司认为，SLR政策若未能顺利延期，美债利率可能有进一步上行压力。为了满足此前SLR考核框架下资本充足率要求，美国大型银行需要补充一级资本或压降其他类型风险资产（例如美债、信贷等），不排除银行需要通过卖出美债等降低风险资产敞口。一旦银行抛售美债，预计美债收益率上行压力将加大。中金公司指出，由于，与此同时美联储还在进行资产购买，这将会进一步增加大型银行的准备金，导致银行更难以满足SLR要求。美国1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案增加了美债供给，而刺激方案中对于居民补贴的部分最终会形成银行的存款，银行需要对此增加更多的存款准备金以满足监管要求，这也将削弱银行持有美债以及在回购市场中收取美债作为抵押品出借现金的意愿，美债供需压力可能会进一步加剧。中国银行表示，SLR豁免条款到期将主要产生以下五个方面影响：第一，美国银行业持有国债意愿将显著降低，弱化国债做市能力。第二，2-5年和6-10年期国债抛压将进一步增大，国债收益率曲线更趋陡峭化。第三，做空交易成为市场主流，国债回购利率跌入历史性负值。第四，银行存放美联储准备金趋降，倒逼资产结构调整。第五，美国大型银行SLR监管成本显著抬升。中国银行表示，美国国债收益率是基础性利率，是美国乃至全球资产定价之锚。美国国债收益率上行，将加大股市高位调整风险，抬升借贷资金成本，对美元指数产生小幅支撑作用，促使国际资本流动格局发生变化。在机构层面，银行减持国债，从根本上改变了国债及其回购市场的做市能力与流动性局面，依赖国债回购拆借资金的非银行金融机构将面临较大冲击；如果国债收益率上行引发跨市场资产价格大幅共振，将进一步加剧对冲基金、共同基金等非银行金融机构风险，进而传至整个金融机构体系，甚至诱发系统性危机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380525680,"gmtCreate":1612562379940,"gmtModify":1703763651250,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"疫情不止，行情不止","listText":"疫情不止，行情不止","text":"疫情不止，行情不止","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9c5b343053c0c67eb29c5cc54593e36","width":"1125","height":"3049"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380525680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":359049864,"gmtCreate":1616306891758,"gmtModify":1634526394708,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359049864","repostId":"2120549145","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120549145","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616299535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120549145?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-21 12:05","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美国国债收益率飙升愈演愈烈，美联储会“就范”吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120549145","media":"FX168","summary":"英国媒体周六报道称，美联储正陷入与市场的“摊牌”中。英国《金融时报》称，尽管鲍威尔对美国国债的收益率采取了放任不管的方法，但与他在欧元区的同行相比，投资者仍在质疑美联储可以允许这种利率运行多长时间。美国国债被抛售反映出通胀和增长预期大幅提升，经济学家怀疑美联储最终将被迫提出首次加息。","content":"<p>英国媒体周六（3月20日）报道称，美联储正陷入与市场的“摊牌”中。</p>\n<p>本周，美联储主席鲍威尔承认迅速发展的经济前景以及通货膨胀率进一步攀升的可能，同时强调了他在可预见的未来将利率保持在最低水平的承诺。</p>\n<p>但是，这种对通货膨胀的宽松态度正在侵蚀美国长期政府债券的价格，在全球市场上引发了涟漪。英国《金融时报》称，尽管鲍威尔对美国国债的收益率采取了放任不管的方法，但与他在欧元区的同行相比，投资者仍在质疑美联储可以允许这种利率运行多长时间。</p>\n<p>Columbia Threadneedle Investments全球固定收益负责人Gene Tannuzzo表示：“重要的不是收益率水平，而是其与风险资产之间的相互作用方式。” “如果收益率以导致股市下跌和信贷息差扩大的速度上升，那么鲍威尔将更加担忧。”</p>\n<p>在过去的一周中，基准十年期美国国债收益率跳升至1.75％，几天前约为1.6％。彭博巴克莱（Bloomberg Barclays）指数显示，自今年年初以来，10年或更长期的美国国债价格下跌了近15％。如果这些损失持续下去，那么今年第一季度将是至少自1970年代初以来美国国债遭遇最严重的一次抛售。</p>\n<p>美国国债被抛售反映出通胀和增长预期大幅提升，经济学家怀疑美联储最终将被迫提出首次加息。</p>\n<p>欧洲央行担心公司和个人的借贷成本可能会有害地增加，因此采取措施以抵制其国债收益率的上涨。相比之下，美联储主席表现得并未有任何不安，这与2020年3月的情形形成鲜明对比，当时决策者就混乱的市场走势与银行和其他市场参与者保持一致。</p>\n<p>抛售的迅速开始蔓延到股票和信贷市场，这激怒了投资者。2月份美国国债拍卖表现不佳之后，国债收益率甚至突破了今年最高的一些预期，引发了波动性交易。</p>\n<p>鲍威尔周三再次驳回了应该对21亿美元美国政府债券市场的近期波动担忧的疑虑，重申各种指标的财务状况仍然“高度宽松”，而央行只会担心可能破坏货币市场支持经济复苏的“无序”举动。为说明这一点，他表示无意调整美联储每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划。</p>\n<p>对冲基金高级投资组合经理Rish Bhandari表示：“市场可能会迫使他们改变其行为，但目前美联储决策者明确表示，他们不希望直接参与对收益率曲线产生影响的行为。”</p>\n<p>PGIM固定收益部高级投资组合经理Mike Collins警告说，美国国债收益率的再次大幅上升可能会考验他们的立场。</p>\n<p>他说：“金融状况确实仍然很宽松，但是如果利率再上升0.5至1个百分点，那的确会放慢脚步。”股票和信贷市场的反弹可能也足够严重，以至于促使美联储进行口头干预，甚至转向购买更多长期债务的措施。</p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国国债收益率飙升愈演愈烈，美联储会“就范”吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国国债收益率飙升愈演愈烈，美联储会“就范”吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-21 12:05 北京时间 <a href=https://news.fx168.com/bank/fed/2103/4838373.shtml><strong>FX168</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英国媒体周六（3月20日）报道称，美联储正陷入与市场的“摊牌”中。\n本周，美联储主席鲍威尔承认迅速发展的经济前景以及通货膨胀率进一步攀升的可能，同时强调了他在可预见的未来将利率保持在最低水平的承诺。\n但是，这种对通货膨胀的宽松态度正在侵蚀美国长期政府债券的价格，在全球市场上引发了涟漪。英国《金融时报》称，尽管鲍威尔对美国国债的收益率采取了放任不管的方法，但与他在欧元区的同行相比，投资者仍在质疑...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.fx168.com/bank/fed/2103/4838373.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a56aa88d539d7b65b8089a421c05150c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://news.fx168.com/bank/fed/2103/4838373.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120549145","content_text":"英国媒体周六（3月20日）报道称，美联储正陷入与市场的“摊牌”中。\n本周，美联储主席鲍威尔承认迅速发展的经济前景以及通货膨胀率进一步攀升的可能，同时强调了他在可预见的未来将利率保持在最低水平的承诺。\n但是，这种对通货膨胀的宽松态度正在侵蚀美国长期政府债券的价格，在全球市场上引发了涟漪。英国《金融时报》称，尽管鲍威尔对美国国债的收益率采取了放任不管的方法，但与他在欧元区的同行相比，投资者仍在质疑美联储可以允许这种利率运行多长时间。\nColumbia Threadneedle Investments全球固定收益负责人Gene Tannuzzo表示：“重要的不是收益率水平，而是其与风险资产之间的相互作用方式。” “如果收益率以导致股市下跌和信贷息差扩大的速度上升，那么鲍威尔将更加担忧。”\n在过去的一周中，基准十年期美国国债收益率跳升至1.75％，几天前约为1.6％。彭博巴克莱（Bloomberg Barclays）指数显示，自今年年初以来，10年或更长期的美国国债价格下跌了近15％。如果这些损失持续下去，那么今年第一季度将是至少自1970年代初以来美国国债遭遇最严重的一次抛售。\n美国国债被抛售反映出通胀和增长预期大幅提升，经济学家怀疑美联储最终将被迫提出首次加息。\n欧洲央行担心公司和个人的借贷成本可能会有害地增加，因此采取措施以抵制其国债收益率的上涨。相比之下，美联储主席表现得并未有任何不安，这与2020年3月的情形形成鲜明对比，当时决策者就混乱的市场走势与银行和其他市场参与者保持一致。\n抛售的迅速开始蔓延到股票和信贷市场，这激怒了投资者。2月份美国国债拍卖表现不佳之后，国债收益率甚至突破了今年最高的一些预期，引发了波动性交易。\n鲍威尔周三再次驳回了应该对21亿美元美国政府债券市场的近期波动担忧的疑虑，重申各种指标的财务状况仍然“高度宽松”，而央行只会担心可能破坏货币市场支持经济复苏的“无序”举动。为说明这一点，他表示无意调整美联储每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划。\n对冲基金高级投资组合经理Rish Bhandari表示：“市场可能会迫使他们改变其行为，但目前美联储决策者明确表示，他们不希望直接参与对收益率曲线产生影响的行为。”\nPGIM固定收益部高级投资组合经理Mike Collins警告说，美国国债收益率的再次大幅上升可能会考验他们的立场。\n他说：“金融状况确实仍然很宽松，但是如果利率再上升0.5至1个百分点，那的确会放慢脚步。”股票和信贷市场的反弹可能也足够严重，以至于促使美联储进行口头干预，甚至转向购买更多长期债务的措施。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"BND":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":122741078,"gmtCreate":1624634638094,"gmtModify":1633950231480,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] 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[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122741078","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164779633,"gmtCreate":1624237835522,"gmtModify":1634009141458,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好好好好好","listText":"好好好好好","text":"好好好好好","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ab36da622f9a56f4a65f328f2181113","width":"1125","height":"3003"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164779633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165265150,"gmtCreate":1624147494870,"gmtModify":1634010368149,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"少数鸽派言论不值得关注","listText":"少数鸽派言论不值得关注","text":"少数鸽派言论不值得关注","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165265150","repostId":"2144088127","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144088127","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624060684,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144088127?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 07:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储少数鸽派唱反调：至少2023年底都不应加息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144088127","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"2023年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席希望保持近零利率至少到2023年末，以便劳动力市场恢复到疫情前水平。而本周稍早公布的点阵图显示，七成以上美联储官员都预计2023年会加息，六成以上预计同年加息两次。","content":"<p>从最新言论看，明尼阿波利斯联储主席Neel Kashkari无疑是目前美联储内部为数不多的鸽派。</p>\n<p>Kashkari本周五表示，在本周美联储公布的截至2023年末经济展望期间内，他都预计不会加息。他希望，至少到2023年末，美联储都保持当前的近零利率，以便让美国的劳动力市场恢复到疫情前的水平。</p>\n<p>Kashkari认为，最近价格上涨是由于经济复工驱动，这样的涨价将随着供应受限减少而消减。他说：“我的确相信，通胀数据升高会是暂时的。”</p>\n<p>Kashkari指出，美国的就业人数相比疫情爆发前还至少低700万。他说，只要通胀预期还没有脱离目标，我们就应该拿出耐心，我们需要一些时间才能真正地实现充分就业。所谓充分就业是指，就算不会比疫情前更强劲，起码也要达到疫情前的水平。</p>\n<p>Kashkari今年没有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的投票权，2023年将轮值拥有投票权。相比本周稍早美联储多数官员透露的加息预期时间表，Kashkari的言论无疑偏向鸽派。</p>\n<p>本周三美联储会后宣布，将联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，但上调了这一政策目标的上下限——IOER和ON RRP两大管理利率。同时公布的点阵图显示，70%以上联储官员预计2023年会加息。以一次加息25个基点估算，60%以上的官员预计到2023年底，会加息两次。而今年3月美联储上次公布的点阵图中，预计2023年加息的官员还不到总人数的40%。这意味着，多数美联储决策者都预计，加息会比他们之前预期来得早。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c52583a40004df95e89f27da315654a\" tg-width=\"1216\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Kashkari讲话前，本周五稍早，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德甚至表示，因通胀上升速度快于之前预期，他预计，美联储可能最早2022年、即明年末开始加息。</p>\n<p>Kashkari此后提到了点阵图，称点阵图本来应该是提供鸽派前瞻指引的工具，最终却成了提供鹰派前瞻指引的工具，“我依然认为我们应该干掉‘点阵图’。”</p>\n<p>美联储主席鲍威尔在周三会后的新闻发布会上说，投资者应对点阵图的预测持高度怀疑态度，不要照单全收，因为点阵图对未来利率走势的预测并不是很好，这是由于它的不确定性非常高。鲍威尔承认，本次会议算是“谈论了讨论缩减QE购债（taper）”，但又说那不是正式的讨论，“加息尚在遥远的未来”。</p>\n<p>华尔街见闻文章此后评论称，美联储本次会议声明最大的变化是，非常肯定疫苗接种对经济的积极影响。虽然鲍威尔本次所提到Taper的触发条件与之前并无区别，但他明显已经开始给Taper的正式讨论打预防针。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储少数鸽派唱反调：至少2023年底都不应加息</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633314","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144088127","content_text":"从最新言论看，明尼阿波利斯联储主席Neel Kashkari无疑是目前美联储内部为数不多的鸽派。\nKashkari本周五表示，在本周美联储公布的截至2023年末经济展望期间内，他都预计不会加息。他希望，至少到2023年末，美联储都保持当前的近零利率，以便让美国的劳动力市场恢复到疫情前的水平。\nKashkari认为，最近价格上涨是由于经济复工驱动，这样的涨价将随着供应受限减少而消减。他说：“我的确相信，通胀数据升高会是暂时的。”\nKashkari指出，美国的就业人数相比疫情爆发前还至少低700万。他说，只要通胀预期还没有脱离目标，我们就应该拿出耐心，我们需要一些时间才能真正地实现充分就业。所谓充分就业是指，就算不会比疫情前更强劲，起码也要达到疫情前的水平。\nKashkari今年没有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的投票权，2023年将轮值拥有投票权。相比本周稍早美联储多数官员透露的加息预期时间表，Kashkari的言论无疑偏向鸽派。\n本周三美联储会后宣布，将联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，但上调了这一政策目标的上下限——IOER和ON RRP两大管理利率。同时公布的点阵图显示，70%以上联储官员预计2023年会加息。以一次加息25个基点估算，60%以上的官员预计到2023年底，会加息两次。而今年3月美联储上次公布的点阵图中，预计2023年加息的官员还不到总人数的40%。这意味着，多数美联储决策者都预计，加息会比他们之前预期来得早。\nKashkari讲话前，本周五稍早，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德甚至表示，因通胀上升速度快于之前预期，他预计，美联储可能最早2022年、即明年末开始加息。\nKashkari此后提到了点阵图，称点阵图本来应该是提供鸽派前瞻指引的工具，最终却成了提供鹰派前瞻指引的工具，“我依然认为我们应该干掉‘点阵图’。”\n美联储主席鲍威尔在周三会后的新闻发布会上说，投资者应对点阵图的预测持高度怀疑态度，不要照单全收，因为点阵图对未来利率走势的预测并不是很好，这是由于它的不确定性非常高。鲍威尔承认，本次会议算是“谈论了讨论缩减QE购债（taper）”，但又说那不是正式的讨论，“加息尚在遥远的未来”。\n华尔街见闻文章此后评论称，美联储本次会议声明最大的变化是，非常肯定疫苗接种对经济的积极影响。虽然鲍威尔本次所提到Taper的触发条件与之前并无区别，但他明显已经开始给Taper的正式讨论打预防针。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165266388,"gmtCreate":1624147411444,"gmtModify":1631890095192,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这支值得买吗","listText":"这支值得买吗","text":"这支值得买吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1f461ab3cbe34da7a6673a0f0331ae","width":"1125","height":"3003"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165266388","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":162734450,"gmtCreate":1624075305870,"gmtModify":1634011013830,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上上上上上","listText":"上上上上上","text":"上上上上上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/501d8bce024eb19164afb8f122bb6aa3","width":"1125","height":"3166"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162734450","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168879618,"gmtCreate":1623972751334,"gmtModify":1634025110749,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加油加油上上上","listText":"加油加油上上上","text":"加油加油上上上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dc117a58794157e5acc0e99d3ed7c6c","width":"224","height":"224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168879618","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359049039,"gmtCreate":1616306850221,"gmtModify":1634526395074,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对银行股民是个强力的打击","listText":"对银行股民是个强力的打击","text":"对银行股民是个强力的打击","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359049039","repostId":"2120911091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120911091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616294992,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120911091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-21 10:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美联储表态SLR到期不续，什么是SLR？如何影响市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120911091","media":"第一财经","summary":"3月19日，美联储表示，补充杠杆率的减免措施将于3月31日到期，将采取适当行动，以确保SLR的任何变动不会削弱银行资本金要求的整体力度。美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。2020年4月1日，美联储实施“将美国国债和存放美联储资产从SLR 指标扣除”的豁免条款。SLR政策到期如何影响市场中金公司认为，SLR政策若未能顺利延期，美债利率可能有进一步上行压力。","content":"<div>\n<p>美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。3月19日，美联储表示，补充杠杆率（SLR）的减免措施将于3月31日到期，将采取适当行动，以确保SLR的任何变动不会削弱银行资本金要求的整体力度。美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。美联储计划重新评估SLR，以确保它在“高储备”环境下仍能发挥作用。受此影响，美国10年期国债收益率短线跳升重返1.7%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://yicai.com/news/100992861.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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href=http://yicai.com/news/100992861.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。3月19日，美联储表示，补充杠杆率（SLR）的减免措施将于3月31日到期，将采取适当行动，以确保SLR的任何变动不会削弱银行资本金要求的整体力度。美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。美联储计划重新评估SLR，以确保它在“高储备”环境下仍能发挥作用。受此影响，美国10年期国债收益率短线跳升重返1.7%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://yicai.com/news/100992861.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://yicai.com/news/100992861.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120911091","content_text":"美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。3月19日，美联储表示，补充杠杆率（SLR）的减免措施将于3月31日到期，将采取适当行动，以确保SLR的任何变动不会削弱银行资本金要求的整体力度。美联储认为允许规则到期不会削弱美国国债市场的流动性或造成市场混乱。美联储计划重新评估SLR，以确保它在“高储备”环境下仍能发挥作用。受此影响，美国10年期国债收益率短线跳升重返1.7%，现报1.742%。什么是SLRSLR是一种美联储针对商业银行的资本充足率指标，金融危机之后美联储修改了SLR相关的规定，对美国的大型银行额外杠杆施加限制，以防范银行系统风险。 2020年4月1日，美联储实施“将美国国债和存放美联储资产从SLR 指标扣除”的豁免条款（以下称 SLR 豁免条款）。该条款将于2021年3 月31日到期。新时代证券表示，1月底以来，美国债券市场内部出现了一个跷跷板现象，那就是长端美债利率上升的同时，短端美债利率下降。这和美国财政部在美联储的存款账户（treasury general account，TGA）缩减，以及银行补充杠杆率（SLR）豁免期限将至有关。SLR政策到期如何影响市场中金公司认为，SLR政策若未能顺利延期，美债利率可能有进一步上行压力。为了满足此前SLR考核框架下资本充足率要求，美国大型银行需要补充一级资本或压降其他类型风险资产（例如美债、信贷等），不排除银行需要通过卖出美债等降低风险资产敞口。一旦银行抛售美债，预计美债收益率上行压力将加大。中金公司指出，由于，与此同时美联储还在进行资产购买，这将会进一步增加大型银行的准备金，导致银行更难以满足SLR要求。美国1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案增加了美债供给，而刺激方案中对于居民补贴的部分最终会形成银行的存款，银行需要对此增加更多的存款准备金以满足监管要求，这也将削弱银行持有美债以及在回购市场中收取美债作为抵押品出借现金的意愿，美债供需压力可能会进一步加剧。中国银行表示，SLR豁免条款到期将主要产生以下五个方面影响：第一，美国银行业持有国债意愿将显著降低，弱化国债做市能力。第二，2-5年和6-10年期国债抛压将进一步增大，国债收益率曲线更趋陡峭化。第三，做空交易成为市场主流，国债回购利率跌入历史性负值。第四，银行存放美联储准备金趋降，倒逼资产结构调整。第五，美国大型银行SLR监管成本显著抬升。中国银行表示，美国国债收益率是基础性利率，是美国乃至全球资产定价之锚。美国国债收益率上行，将加大股市高位调整风险，抬升借贷资金成本，对美元指数产生小幅支撑作用，促使国际资本流动格局发生变化。在机构层面，银行减持国债，从根本上改变了国债及其回购市场的做市能力与流动性局面，依赖国债回购拆借资金的非银行金融机构将面临较大冲击；如果国债收益率上行引发跨市场资产价格大幅共振，将进一步加剧对冲基金、共同基金等非银行金融机构风险，进而传至整个金融机构体系，甚至诱发系统性危机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380525680,"gmtCreate":1612562379940,"gmtModify":1703763651250,"author":{"id":"3570604921963366","authorId":"3570604921963366","name":"谦虚的赌徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b4e07fbf4202d9603d2394a7f35b69","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570604921963366","authorIdStr":"3570604921963366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"疫情不止，行情不止","listText":"疫情不止，行情不止","text":"疫情不止，行情不止","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9c5b343053c0c67eb29c5cc54593e36","width":"1125","height":"3049"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380525680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
