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2021-06-01

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2021-05-29

Hi

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2021-05-26

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2021-05-24

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2021-04-27

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2021-03-21

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Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>

2021-03-20

Hi

Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>

2021-03-20

Hi

Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>

2021-03-20

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2021-03-19

Hi

Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>

2021-03-17

Hi

The Financial Crisis the World Forgot<blockquote>被世界遗忘的金融危机</blockquote>

2021-03-15

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2021-03-14

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2021-03-13

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2021-03-12

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2021-03-11

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US Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote>

2021-03-10

Hi

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2021-03-09

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Dow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher<blockquote>道指32,000？为什么指数应该高出100万点以上</blockquote>

2021-03-09

Hi

Airbnb, Lyft and Other Stocks Set to Benefit From a Consumer Spending Boom<blockquote>Airbnb、Lyft和其他股票将受益于消费者支出热潮</blockquote>

2021-03-08

Hi

Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>

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23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350410890,"gmtCreate":1616250184310,"gmtModify":1634526581692,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350410890","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117450855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616166767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117450855?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350410130,"gmtCreate":1616250164920,"gmtModify":1634526581814,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350410130","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117450855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616166767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117450855?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350506766,"gmtCreate":1616222037055,"gmtModify":1634526662834,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350506766","repostId":"1132724682","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350121295,"gmtCreate":1616167869517,"gmtModify":1634526886535,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350121295","repostId":"1199154789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199154789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616164372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199154789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199154789","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio  exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on ","content":"<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><p><blockquote>正如本文所暗示和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率(SLR)豁免如期于3月31日（规则变更一周年）到期。</blockquote></p><p>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于新冠肺炎事件，这一临时变化是为了为存款机构向家庭和企业提供信贷提供灵活性。这一结果是前纽约联储大师Zoltan Pozsar（再次）正确预测的结果，他跟随FOMC表示，“事实上，美联储实际上是先发制人地做出了这一调整——目前没有使用o/n RRP工具，因此没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率尚未为负——<b>暗示美联储正在为SLR豁免的结束“铺路”</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><p><blockquote>美联储深知这将是市场的一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，并指出，虽然SLR特殊待遇将于3月31日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众就几项潜在的SLR修改发表评论”。此外，”<b>随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决SLR当前的设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力</b>”——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新引入SLR：</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。<b>然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。<b>监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响</i>：</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响<b>SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储<b>“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四女巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 22:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><p><blockquote>正如本文所暗示和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率(SLR)豁免如期于3月31日（规则变更一周年）到期。</blockquote></p><p>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于新冠肺炎事件，这一临时变化是为了为存款机构向家庭和企业提供信贷提供灵活性。这一结果是前纽约联储大师Zoltan Pozsar（再次）正确预测的结果，他跟随FOMC表示，“事实上，美联储实际上是先发制人地做出了这一调整——目前没有使用o/n RRP工具，因此没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率尚未为负——<b>暗示美联储正在为SLR豁免的结束“铺路”</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><p><blockquote>美联储深知这将是市场的一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，并指出，虽然SLR特殊待遇将于3月31日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众就几项潜在的SLR修改发表评论”。此外，”<b>随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决SLR当前的设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力</b>”——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新引入SLR：</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。<b>然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。<b>监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响</i>：</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响<b>SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储<b>“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四女巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199154789","content_text":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...Bond yields spiked...... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")....... slumped.In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).So what happens next?Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.* *  *Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324181251,"gmtCreate":1615974513673,"gmtModify":1703495739590,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324181251","repostId":"1176435771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176435771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615973979,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176435771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Financial Crisis the World Forgot<blockquote>被世界遗忘的金融危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176435771","media":"NewYork Times","summary":"The Federal Reserve crossed red lines to rescue markets in March 2020. Is there enough momentum to f","content":"<p>  The Federal Reserve crossed red lines to rescue markets in March 2020. Is there enough momentum to fix the weaknesses the episode exposed?  By the middle of March 2020 a sense of anxiety pervaded the Federal Reserve. The fast-unfolding coronavirus pandemic was rippling through global markets in dangerous ways.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在2020年3月越过红线救市。有足够的动力来修复这一集暴露的弱点吗？到2020年3月中旬，一种焦虑感弥漫在美联储。快速蔓延的冠状病毒疫情正以危险的方式席卷全球市场。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in Treasurys — the government securities that are considered among the safest assets in the world, and the bedrock of the entire bond market — had become disjointed as panicked investors tried to sell everything they owned to raise cash. Buyers were scarce. The Treasury market had never broken down so badly, even in the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>国债——被认为是世界上最安全的资产之一的政府证券，也是整个债券市场的基石——的交易已经变得脱节，因为惊慌失措的投资者试图出售他们拥有的一切来筹集现金。买家稀少。即使在2008年金融危机最严重的时候，美国国债市场也从未出现过如此严重的崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed called an emergency meeting on March 15, a Sunday. Lorie Logan, who oversees the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s asset portfolio, summarized the brewing crisis. She and her colleagues dialed into a conference from the fortresslike New York Fed headquarters, unable to travel to Washington given the meeting’s impromptu nature and the spreading virus. Regional bank presidents assembled across America stared back from the monitor. Washington-based governors were arrayed in a socially distanced ring around the Fed Board’s mahogany table.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在3月15日周日召开了紧急会议。负责监管纽约联邦储备银行资产组合的洛里·洛根总结了这场酝酿中的危机。她和她的同事从堡垒般的纽约联储总部拨打了一个会议电话，由于会议的即兴性质和病毒的传播，他们无法前往华盛顿。聚集在美国各地的地区银行行长从监视器上回头看。华盛顿的州长们在美联储董事会的红木桌子周围排成一圈，保持社交距离。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Logan delivered a blunt assessment: While the Fed had been buying government-backed bonds the week before to soothe the volatile Treasury market, market contacts said it hadn’t been enough. To fix things, the Fed mightneed to buy much more. And fast.</p><p><blockquote>洛根女士给出了一个直言不讳的评估：尽管美联储前一周一直在购买政府支持的债券，以安抚动荡的美国国债市场，但市场联系人表示，这还不够。为了解决问题，美联储可能需要购买更多。而且很快。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials are an argumentative bunch, and they fiercely debated the other issue before them that day, whether to cut interest rates to near-zero.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员是一群好争论的人，他们当天激烈地争论着摆在他们面前的另一个问题，是否将利率降至接近零的水平。</blockquote></p><p> But, in a testament to the gravity of the breakdown in the government bond market, there was no dissent about whether the central bank needed to stem what was happening by stepping in as a buyer. That afternoon, the Fedannounced an enormous purchase program, promising to make $500 billion in government bond purchases and to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed debt.</p><p><blockquote>但是，对于央行是否需要作为买家介入来阻止正在发生的事情，没有人对政府债券市场崩溃的严重性有异议，这证明了政府债券市场崩溃的严重性。当天下午，美联储宣布了一项庞大的购买计划，承诺购买5000亿美元的政府债券，并购买2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持债务。</blockquote></p><p> It wasn’t the central bank’s first effort to stop the unfolding disaster, nor would it be the last. But it was a clear signal that the 2020 meltdown echoed the 2008 crisis in seriousness and complexity. Where the housing crisis and ensuing crash took years to unfold, the coronavirus panic had struck in weeks.</p><p><blockquote>这不是央行第一次试图阻止这场灾难的发生，也不会是最后一次。但这是一个明确的信号，表明2020年的崩溃在严重性和复杂性上与2008年的危机相呼应。在住房危机和随之而来的崩盘花了数年时间才显现的地方，冠状病毒恐慌在几周内就袭来了。</blockquote></p><p> As March wore on, each hour incubating a new calamity, policymakers were forced tocross boundaries, break precedentsand make new uses of the U.S. government’s vast powers to save domestic markets, keep cash flowing abroad and prevent a full-blown financial crisis from compounding a public health tragedy.</p><p><blockquote>随着三月的过去，每小时都在酝酿一场新的灾难，政策制定者被迫跨越国界，打破先例，并新利用美国政府的巨大权力来拯救国内市场，保持现金流向海外，并防止全面的金融危机加剧公共卫生悲剧。</blockquote></p><p> The rescue worked, so it is easy to forget the peril America’s investors and businesses faced a year ago. But the systemwide weaknesses that were exposed last March remain, and are now under the microscope of Washington policymakers.</p><p><blockquote>救援奏效了，所以人们很容易忘记一年前美国投资者和企业面临的危险。但去年3月暴露出来的全系统弱点依然存在，现在正受到华盛顿政策制定者的密切关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How It Started</b></p><p><blockquote><b>它是如何开始的</b></blockquote></p><p> Financial markets began to wobble on Feb. 21, 2020, when Italian authorities announced localized lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>2020年2月21日，意大利当局宣布局部封锁，金融市场开始波动。</blockquote></p><p> At first, the sell-off in risky investments was normal — a rational “flight to safety” while the global economic outlook was rapidly darkening. Stocks plummeted, demand for many corporate bonds disappeared, and people poured into super-secure investments, like U.S. Treasury bonds.</p><p><blockquote>起初，风险投资的抛售是正常的——在全球经济前景迅速黯淡的情况下，这是一种理性的“避险”。股市暴跌，对许多公司债券的需求消失，人们涌入超级安全的投资，比如美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> On March 3, as market jitters intensified, the Fedcut interest ratesto about 1 percent — its first emergency move since the 2008 financial crisis. Some analysts chidedthe Fed for overreacting, and others asked an obvious question: What could the Fed realistically do in the face of a public health threat?</p><p><blockquote>3月3日，随着市场紧张情绪加剧，美联储将利率降至1%左右，这是自2008年金融危机以来的首次紧急举措。一些分析师指责美联储反应过度，而另一些分析师则提出了一个显而易见的问题：面对公共健康威胁，美联储实际上能做些什么？</blockquote></p><p> “We do recognize that a rate cut will not reduce the rate of infection, it won’t fix a broken supply chain,” Chair Jerome H. Powell said at a news conference, explaining that the Fed was doing what it could to keep credit cheap and available.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔(Jerome H.Powell)在新闻发布会上表示：“我们确实认识到，降息不会降低感染率，也不会修复断裂的供应链。”他解释说，美联储正在尽其所能保持信贷便宜且可用。</blockquote></p><p> But the health disaster was quickly metastasizing into a market crisis.</p><p><blockquote>但这场健康灾难很快演变成了一场市场危机。</blockquote></p><p> Lockdowns in Italy deepened during the second week of March, and oil prices plummeted as a price war raged, sending tremors across stock, currency and commodity markets. Then, something weird started to happen: Instead of snapping up Treasury bonds, arguably the world’s safest investment, investors began trying to sell them.</p><p><blockquote>意大利的封锁在3月的第二周加深，随着价格战的激烈，油价暴跌，股市、货币和大宗商品市场都发生了震动。然后，奇怪的事情开始发生：投资者没有抢购可以说是世界上最安全的投资的国债，而是开始试图出售它们。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt — which usually drops when investors seek safe harbor — started to rise on March 10, suggesting investors didn’t want safe assets. They wanted cold, hard cash, and they were trying to sell anything and everything to get it.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率（通常在投资者寻求安全港时会下降）于3月10日开始上升，表明投资者不想要安全资产。他们想要冰冷的现金，他们试图卖掉任何东西来得到它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How It Worsened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>病情是如何恶化的</b></blockquote></p><p> Religion works through churches. Democracy through congresses and parliaments. Capitalism is an idea made real through a series of relationships between debtors and creditors, risk and reward. And by last March 11, those equations were no longer adding up.</p><p><blockquote>宗教通过教堂发挥作用。通过国会和议会实现民主。资本主义是一种通过债务人和债权人、风险和回报之间的一系列关系而实现的理念。到去年3月11日，这些方程式不再相加。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That was the day the World Health Organizationofficially declaredthe virus outbreak a pandemic, and the morning on which it was becoming clear that a sell-off had spiraled into a panic.</p><p><blockquote>那一天，世界卫生组织正式宣布该病毒爆发为大流行，而那天早上，抛售显然已升级为恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began to roll out measure after measure in a bid to soothe conditions, first offeringhuge temporary infusions of cashto banks, thenaccelerating plansto buy Treasury bonds as that market swung out of whack.</p><p><blockquote>美联储开始推出一项又一项措施来缓解局势，首先向银行提供巨额临时现金注入，然后在市场出现异常时加快购买国债的计划。</blockquote></p><p> But by Friday, March 13, government bond markets were just one of many problems.</p><p><blockquote>但到了3月13日星期五，政府债券市场只是众多问题之一。</blockquote></p><p> Investors had been pulling their cash from prime money market mutual funds, where they park it to earn a slightly higher return, for days. But those outflows began to accelerate, prompting the funds themselves to pull back sharply from short-term corporate debt markets as they raced to return money to investors. Banks that serve as market conduits were less willing than usual to buy and hold new securities, even just temporarily. That made it harder to sell everything, be it a company bond or Treasury debt.</p><p><blockquote>几天来，投资者一直在从优质货币市场共同基金中提取现金，并将其存放在那里以赚取略高的回报。但这些资金外流开始加速，促使这些基金本身在竞相向投资者返还资金时大幅撤出短期公司债务市场。作为市场渠道的银行不太愿意购买和持有新证券，即使只是暂时购买和持有。这使得出售所有东西变得更加困难，无论是公司债券还是国债。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s announcement after its March 15 emergency meeting — that it would slash rates and buy bonds in the most critical markets — was an attempt to get things under control.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在3月15日紧急会议后宣布，将在最关键的市场大幅降息并购买债券，这是试图控制局势。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell worried that the fix would fall short as short- and long-term debt of all kinds became hard to sell. He approached Andreas Lehnert, director of the Fed’s financial stability division, in the Washington boardroom after the meeting and asked him to prepare emergency lending programs, which the central bank had used in 2008 to serve as a support system to unraveling markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔担心，随着各种短期和长期债务变得难以出售，修复方案将无法实现。会后，他在华盛顿会议室找到美联储金融稳定部门主任安德烈亚斯·莱纳特(Andreas Lehnert)，要求他准备紧急贷款计划，美联储在2008年曾使用该计划作为崩溃市场的支持系统。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Lehnert went straight to a musty office, where he communicated with Fed technicians, economists and lawyers via instant messenger and video chats — in-person meetings were already restricted — and worked late into the night to get the paperwork ready.</p><p><blockquote>莱纳特先生直接去了一间发霉的办公室，在那里他通过即时通讯和视频聊天（面对面的会议已经受到限制）与美联储技术人员、经济学家和律师进行了交流，并工作到深夜准备文件。</blockquote></p><p> Starting that Tuesday morning, after another day of market carnage, the central bank began to unveil the steady drip of rescue programs Mr. Lehnert and his colleagues had been working on: one to buy upshort-term corporate debtand another to keep funding flowing to key banks. Shortlybefore midnighton Wednesday, March 18, the Fed announced a program to rescue embattled money market funds by offering to effectively take hard-to-sell securities off their hands.</p><p><blockquote>从周二早上开始，在又一天的市场大屠杀之后，央行开始推出莱纳特先生和他的同事们一直在努力的稳定的救援计划：一个是购买短期公司债务，另一个是保持资金流向主要银行。3月18日星期三午夜前不久，美联储宣布了一项拯救陷入困境的货币市场基金的计划，提出有效地将难以出售的证券从它们手中夺走。</blockquote></p><p> But by the end of that week, everything was a mess.Foreign central banks and corporations were offloading U.S. debt, partly to raise dollars companies needed to pay interest and other bills; hedge funds werenixing a highly leveraged tradethat had broken down as the market went haywire, dumping Treasurys into the choked market.Corporate bondandcommercial real estate debt marketslooked dicey as companies faced credit rating downgrades and as hotels and malls saw business prospects tank.</p><p><blockquote>但到了那个周末，一切都一团糟。外国央行和企业正在抛售美国债务，部分原因是为了筹集企业支付利息和其他账单所需的美元；对冲基金正在取消随着市场失控而崩溃的高杠杆交易，将美国国债倾销到陷入困境的市场中。由于公司面临信用评级下调以及酒店和购物中心业务前景低迷，公司债券和商业房地产债务市场看起来充满风险。</blockquote></p><p> The world’s most powerful central bank was throwing solutions at the markets as rapidly as it could, and it wasn’t enough.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最强大的央行正在以最快的速度向市场抛出解决方案，但这还不够。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How They Fixed It</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们是怎么修好的</b></blockquote></p><p> The next weekend, March 21 and 22, was a frenzy. Officials dialed into calls from home, completing still-secret program outlines and negotiating with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s team to establish a layer of insurance to protect the efforts against credit losses. After a tormented 48-hour hustle, the Fed sent out a mammoth news release on Monday morning.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的周末，3月21日和22日，是一场狂热。官员们从家里拨通了评级的电话，完成了仍然保密的计划大纲，并与财政部长姆努钦的团队进行了谈判，以建立一层保险来保护这些努力免受信贷损失。经过48小时的痛苦忙碌后，美联储于周一上午发布了一份庞大的新闻稿。</blockquote></p><p> Headlineshit newswiresat 8 a.m., well before American markets opened. The Fed promised tobuy an unlimited amountof Treasury debt and to purchase commercial mortgage-backed securities — efforts to save the most central markets.</p><p><blockquote>头条新闻周六上午8点，远在美国市场开盘之前。美联储承诺购买无限量的国债和商业抵押贷款支持证券——这是为了拯救最核心的市场。</blockquote></p><p> The announcement also pushed the central bank into uncharted territory. The Fed was established in 1913 toserve as a lender of last resortto troubled banks. On March 23, it pledged to funnel help far beyond that financial core. The Fed said it would buy corporate debt and help to get loans to midsize businesses for the first time ever.</p><p><blockquote>这一声明也将央行推向了未知的领域。美联储成立于1913年，作为陷入困境的银行的最后贷款人。3月23日，它承诺提供远远超出财务核心的帮助。美联储表示，将首次购买企业债务并帮助中型企业获得贷款。</blockquote></p><p> It finally worked. The dash for cash turned around starting that day.</p><p><blockquote>终于奏效了。从那天开始，现金热潮出现了转机。</blockquote></p><p> The March 23 efforts took an approach that Mr. Lehnert referred to internally as “covering the waterfront.” Fed economists had discerned which capital marketswere tied to huge numbers of jobsand made sure that every one of them had a Fed support program.</p><p><blockquote>3月23日的努力采取了莱纳特先生在内部称之为“覆盖海滨”的方法。美联储经济学家已经辨别出哪些资本市场与大量就业岗位相关，并确保每个资本市场都有美联储的支持计划。</blockquote></p><p> On April 9, officials put final pieces of the strategy into play. Backed by a huge pot of insurance money from a rescue package just passed by Congress — lawmakers had handed the Treasury up to$454 billion— they announced that they would expand already-announced efforts and set up another to help funnel credit to states and big cities.</p><p><blockquote>4月9日，官员们实施了该战略的最后部分。在国会刚刚通过的救助计划中获得的巨额保险金（立法者向财政部提供了高达4540亿美元的资金）的支持下，他们宣布将扩大已经宣布的努力，并建立另一个计划来帮助向各州和大城市输送信贷。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s 2008 rescue effort had been widely criticized as a bank bailout. The 2020 redux was to rescue everything.</p><p><blockquote>美联储2008年的救助行动被广泛批评为银行救助。2020年的redux是为了拯救一切。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Fed, along with the Treasury, most likely saved the nation from a crippling financial crisis that would have made it harder for businesses to survive, rebound and rehire, intensifying the economic damage the coronavirus went on to inflict. Many of the programs have since ended or are scheduled to do so, and markets are functioning fine.</p><p><blockquote>美联储和财政部很可能将美国从一场严重的金融危机中拯救出来，这场危机将使企业更难生存、反弹和重新雇用，加剧冠状病毒继续造成的经济损害。许多项目已经结束或计划结束，市场运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> But there’s no guarantee that the calm will prove permanent.</p><p><blockquote>但是不能保证这种平静会是永久的。</blockquote></p><p> “The financial system remains vulnerable” to a repeat of last March’s sweeping disaster as “the underlying structures and mechanisms that gave rise to the turmoil are still in place,” the Financial Stability Board, a global oversight body, wrote in a meltdownpost-mortem.</p><p><blockquote>全球监督机构金融稳定委员会（Financial Stability Board）在一份meltdownpost-mortem中写道，“金融体系仍然容易”重演去年3月的全面灾难，因为“导致动荡的潜在结构和机制仍然存在”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Comes Next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来会发生什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The question policymakers and lawmakers are now grappling with is how to fix those vulnerabilities, which could portend problems for the Treasury market and money market funds if investors get seriously spooked again.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者和立法者现在正在努力解决的问题是如何修复这些漏洞，如果投资者再次受到严重惊吓，这可能预示着国债市场和货币市场基金将出现问题。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s rescue ramps up the urgency to safeguard the system. Central bankers set a precedent by saving previously untouched markets, raising the possibility that investors will take risks, assuming the central bank will always step in if things get bad enough.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的救助增加了保护该体系的紧迫性。央行行长们开创了一个先例，拯救了以前未触及的市场，增加了投资者承担风险的可能性，假设如果情况变得足够糟糕，央行总是会介入。</blockquote></p><p> There’s some bipartisan appetite for reform: Trump-era regulators began a review of money markets, and Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has said she will focus on financial oversight. But change won’t be easy. Protests in the street helped to galvanize financial reform after 2008. There is little popular outrage over the March 2020 meltdown, both because it was set off by a health crisis — not bad banker behavior — and because it was resolved quickly.</p><p><blockquote>两党都有一些改革兴趣：特朗普时代的监管机构开始对货币市场进行审查，财政部长珍妮特·L·耶伦表示，她将重点关注金融监管。但是改变并不容易。街头抗议有助于刺激2008年后的金融改革。人们对2020年3月的崩溃几乎没有感到愤怒，这既是因为它是由健康危机引发的——而不是不良银行家行为——也因为它很快得到了解决。</blockquote></p><p> Industry playersare already mobilizing a lobbying effort, and they may find allies in resisting regulation, including among lawmakers.</p><p><blockquote>行业参与者已经在动员游说努力，他们可能会找到抵制监管的盟友，包括立法者。</blockquote></p><p> “I would point out that money market funds have been remarkably stable and successful,” Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, said during aJan. 19 hearing.</p><p><blockquote>“我想指出的是，货币市场基金一直非常稳定和成功，”宾夕法尼亚州共和党参议员帕特里克·J·图米(Patrick J.Toomey)在aJan期间表示。19听证会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1605590967916","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Financial Crisis the World Forgot<blockquote>被世界遗忘的金融危机</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Financial Crisis the World Forgot<blockquote>被世界遗忘的金融危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">NewYork Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-17 17:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  The Federal Reserve crossed red lines to rescue markets in March 2020. Is there enough momentum to fix the weaknesses the episode exposed?  By the middle of March 2020 a sense of anxiety pervaded the Federal Reserve. The fast-unfolding coronavirus pandemic was rippling through global markets in dangerous ways.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在2020年3月越过红线救市。有足够的动力来修复这一集暴露的弱点吗？到2020年3月中旬，一种焦虑感弥漫在美联储。快速蔓延的冠状病毒疫情正以危险的方式席卷全球市场。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in Treasurys — the government securities that are considered among the safest assets in the world, and the bedrock of the entire bond market — had become disjointed as panicked investors tried to sell everything they owned to raise cash. Buyers were scarce. The Treasury market had never broken down so badly, even in the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>国债——被认为是世界上最安全的资产之一的政府证券，也是整个债券市场的基石——的交易已经变得脱节，因为惊慌失措的投资者试图出售他们拥有的一切来筹集现金。买家稀少。即使在2008年金融危机最严重的时候，美国国债市场也从未出现过如此严重的崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed called an emergency meeting on March 15, a Sunday. Lorie Logan, who oversees the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s asset portfolio, summarized the brewing crisis. She and her colleagues dialed into a conference from the fortresslike New York Fed headquarters, unable to travel to Washington given the meeting’s impromptu nature and the spreading virus. Regional bank presidents assembled across America stared back from the monitor. Washington-based governors were arrayed in a socially distanced ring around the Fed Board’s mahogany table.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在3月15日周日召开了紧急会议。负责监管纽约联邦储备银行资产组合的洛里·洛根总结了这场酝酿中的危机。她和她的同事从堡垒般的纽约联储总部拨打了一个会议电话，由于会议的即兴性质和病毒的传播，他们无法前往华盛顿。聚集在美国各地的地区银行行长从监视器上回头看。华盛顿的州长们在美联储董事会的红木桌子周围排成一圈，保持社交距离。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Logan delivered a blunt assessment: While the Fed had been buying government-backed bonds the week before to soothe the volatile Treasury market, market contacts said it hadn’t been enough. To fix things, the Fed mightneed to buy much more. And fast.</p><p><blockquote>洛根女士给出了一个直言不讳的评估：尽管美联储前一周一直在购买政府支持的债券，以安抚动荡的美国国债市场，但市场联系人表示，这还不够。为了解决问题，美联储可能需要购买更多。而且很快。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials are an argumentative bunch, and they fiercely debated the other issue before them that day, whether to cut interest rates to near-zero.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员是一群好争论的人，他们当天激烈地争论着摆在他们面前的另一个问题，是否将利率降至接近零的水平。</blockquote></p><p> But, in a testament to the gravity of the breakdown in the government bond market, there was no dissent about whether the central bank needed to stem what was happening by stepping in as a buyer. That afternoon, the Fedannounced an enormous purchase program, promising to make $500 billion in government bond purchases and to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed debt.</p><p><blockquote>但是，对于央行是否需要作为买家介入来阻止正在发生的事情，没有人对政府债券市场崩溃的严重性有异议，这证明了政府债券市场崩溃的严重性。当天下午，美联储宣布了一项庞大的购买计划，承诺购买5000亿美元的政府债券，并购买2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持债务。</blockquote></p><p> It wasn’t the central bank’s first effort to stop the unfolding disaster, nor would it be the last. But it was a clear signal that the 2020 meltdown echoed the 2008 crisis in seriousness and complexity. Where the housing crisis and ensuing crash took years to unfold, the coronavirus panic had struck in weeks.</p><p><blockquote>这不是央行第一次试图阻止这场灾难的发生，也不会是最后一次。但这是一个明确的信号，表明2020年的崩溃在严重性和复杂性上与2008年的危机相呼应。在住房危机和随之而来的崩盘花了数年时间才显现的地方，冠状病毒恐慌在几周内就袭来了。</blockquote></p><p> As March wore on, each hour incubating a new calamity, policymakers were forced tocross boundaries, break precedentsand make new uses of the U.S. government’s vast powers to save domestic markets, keep cash flowing abroad and prevent a full-blown financial crisis from compounding a public health tragedy.</p><p><blockquote>随着三月的过去，每小时都在酝酿一场新的灾难，政策制定者被迫跨越国界，打破先例，并新利用美国政府的巨大权力来拯救国内市场，保持现金流向海外，并防止全面的金融危机加剧公共卫生悲剧。</blockquote></p><p> The rescue worked, so it is easy to forget the peril America’s investors and businesses faced a year ago. But the systemwide weaknesses that were exposed last March remain, and are now under the microscope of Washington policymakers.</p><p><blockquote>救援奏效了，所以人们很容易忘记一年前美国投资者和企业面临的危险。但去年3月暴露出来的全系统弱点依然存在，现在正受到华盛顿政策制定者的密切关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How It Started</b></p><p><blockquote><b>它是如何开始的</b></blockquote></p><p> Financial markets began to wobble on Feb. 21, 2020, when Italian authorities announced localized lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>2020年2月21日，意大利当局宣布局部封锁，金融市场开始波动。</blockquote></p><p> At first, the sell-off in risky investments was normal — a rational “flight to safety” while the global economic outlook was rapidly darkening. Stocks plummeted, demand for many corporate bonds disappeared, and people poured into super-secure investments, like U.S. Treasury bonds.</p><p><blockquote>起初，风险投资的抛售是正常的——在全球经济前景迅速黯淡的情况下，这是一种理性的“避险”。股市暴跌，对许多公司债券的需求消失，人们涌入超级安全的投资，比如美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> On March 3, as market jitters intensified, the Fedcut interest ratesto about 1 percent — its first emergency move since the 2008 financial crisis. Some analysts chidedthe Fed for overreacting, and others asked an obvious question: What could the Fed realistically do in the face of a public health threat?</p><p><blockquote>3月3日，随着市场紧张情绪加剧，美联储将利率降至1%左右，这是自2008年金融危机以来的首次紧急举措。一些分析师指责美联储反应过度，而另一些分析师则提出了一个显而易见的问题：面对公共健康威胁，美联储实际上能做些什么？</blockquote></p><p> “We do recognize that a rate cut will not reduce the rate of infection, it won’t fix a broken supply chain,” Chair Jerome H. Powell said at a news conference, explaining that the Fed was doing what it could to keep credit cheap and available.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔(Jerome H.Powell)在新闻发布会上表示：“我们确实认识到，降息不会降低感染率，也不会修复断裂的供应链。”他解释说，美联储正在尽其所能保持信贷便宜且可用。</blockquote></p><p> But the health disaster was quickly metastasizing into a market crisis.</p><p><blockquote>但这场健康灾难很快演变成了一场市场危机。</blockquote></p><p> Lockdowns in Italy deepened during the second week of March, and oil prices plummeted as a price war raged, sending tremors across stock, currency and commodity markets. Then, something weird started to happen: Instead of snapping up Treasury bonds, arguably the world’s safest investment, investors began trying to sell them.</p><p><blockquote>意大利的封锁在3月的第二周加深，随着价格战的激烈，油价暴跌，股市、货币和大宗商品市场都发生了震动。然后，奇怪的事情开始发生：投资者没有抢购可以说是世界上最安全的投资的国债，而是开始试图出售它们。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt — which usually drops when investors seek safe harbor — started to rise on March 10, suggesting investors didn’t want safe assets. They wanted cold, hard cash, and they were trying to sell anything and everything to get it.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率（通常在投资者寻求安全港时会下降）于3月10日开始上升，表明投资者不想要安全资产。他们想要冰冷的现金，他们试图卖掉任何东西来得到它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How It Worsened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>病情是如何恶化的</b></blockquote></p><p> Religion works through churches. Democracy through congresses and parliaments. Capitalism is an idea made real through a series of relationships between debtors and creditors, risk and reward. And by last March 11, those equations were no longer adding up.</p><p><blockquote>宗教通过教堂发挥作用。通过国会和议会实现民主。资本主义是一种通过债务人和债权人、风险和回报之间的一系列关系而实现的理念。到去年3月11日，这些方程式不再相加。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That was the day the World Health Organizationofficially declaredthe virus outbreak a pandemic, and the morning on which it was becoming clear that a sell-off had spiraled into a panic.</p><p><blockquote>那一天，世界卫生组织正式宣布该病毒爆发为大流行，而那天早上，抛售显然已升级为恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began to roll out measure after measure in a bid to soothe conditions, first offeringhuge temporary infusions of cashto banks, thenaccelerating plansto buy Treasury bonds as that market swung out of whack.</p><p><blockquote>美联储开始推出一项又一项措施来缓解局势，首先向银行提供巨额临时现金注入，然后在市场出现异常时加快购买国债的计划。</blockquote></p><p> But by Friday, March 13, government bond markets were just one of many problems.</p><p><blockquote>但到了3月13日星期五，政府债券市场只是众多问题之一。</blockquote></p><p> Investors had been pulling their cash from prime money market mutual funds, where they park it to earn a slightly higher return, for days. But those outflows began to accelerate, prompting the funds themselves to pull back sharply from short-term corporate debt markets as they raced to return money to investors. Banks that serve as market conduits were less willing than usual to buy and hold new securities, even just temporarily. That made it harder to sell everything, be it a company bond or Treasury debt.</p><p><blockquote>几天来，投资者一直在从优质货币市场共同基金中提取现金，并将其存放在那里以赚取略高的回报。但这些资金外流开始加速，促使这些基金本身在竞相向投资者返还资金时大幅撤出短期公司债务市场。作为市场渠道的银行不太愿意购买和持有新证券，即使只是暂时购买和持有。这使得出售所有东西变得更加困难，无论是公司债券还是国债。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s announcement after its March 15 emergency meeting — that it would slash rates and buy bonds in the most critical markets — was an attempt to get things under control.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在3月15日紧急会议后宣布，将在最关键的市场大幅降息并购买债券，这是试图控制局势。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell worried that the fix would fall short as short- and long-term debt of all kinds became hard to sell. He approached Andreas Lehnert, director of the Fed’s financial stability division, in the Washington boardroom after the meeting and asked him to prepare emergency lending programs, which the central bank had used in 2008 to serve as a support system to unraveling markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔担心，随着各种短期和长期债务变得难以出售，修复方案将无法实现。会后，他在华盛顿会议室找到美联储金融稳定部门主任安德烈亚斯·莱纳特(Andreas Lehnert)，要求他准备紧急贷款计划，美联储在2008年曾使用该计划作为崩溃市场的支持系统。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Lehnert went straight to a musty office, where he communicated with Fed technicians, economists and lawyers via instant messenger and video chats — in-person meetings were already restricted — and worked late into the night to get the paperwork ready.</p><p><blockquote>莱纳特先生直接去了一间发霉的办公室，在那里他通过即时通讯和视频聊天（面对面的会议已经受到限制）与美联储技术人员、经济学家和律师进行了交流，并工作到深夜准备文件。</blockquote></p><p> Starting that Tuesday morning, after another day of market carnage, the central bank began to unveil the steady drip of rescue programs Mr. Lehnert and his colleagues had been working on: one to buy upshort-term corporate debtand another to keep funding flowing to key banks. Shortlybefore midnighton Wednesday, March 18, the Fed announced a program to rescue embattled money market funds by offering to effectively take hard-to-sell securities off their hands.</p><p><blockquote>从周二早上开始，在又一天的市场大屠杀之后，央行开始推出莱纳特先生和他的同事们一直在努力的稳定的救援计划：一个是购买短期公司债务，另一个是保持资金流向主要银行。3月18日星期三午夜前不久，美联储宣布了一项拯救陷入困境的货币市场基金的计划，提出有效地将难以出售的证券从它们手中夺走。</blockquote></p><p> But by the end of that week, everything was a mess.Foreign central banks and corporations were offloading U.S. debt, partly to raise dollars companies needed to pay interest and other bills; hedge funds werenixing a highly leveraged tradethat had broken down as the market went haywire, dumping Treasurys into the choked market.Corporate bondandcommercial real estate debt marketslooked dicey as companies faced credit rating downgrades and as hotels and malls saw business prospects tank.</p><p><blockquote>但到了那个周末，一切都一团糟。外国央行和企业正在抛售美国债务，部分原因是为了筹集企业支付利息和其他账单所需的美元；对冲基金正在取消随着市场失控而崩溃的高杠杆交易，将美国国债倾销到陷入困境的市场中。由于公司面临信用评级下调以及酒店和购物中心业务前景低迷，公司债券和商业房地产债务市场看起来充满风险。</blockquote></p><p> The world’s most powerful central bank was throwing solutions at the markets as rapidly as it could, and it wasn’t enough.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最强大的央行正在以最快的速度向市场抛出解决方案，但这还不够。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How They Fixed It</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们是怎么修好的</b></blockquote></p><p> The next weekend, March 21 and 22, was a frenzy. Officials dialed into calls from home, completing still-secret program outlines and negotiating with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s team to establish a layer of insurance to protect the efforts against credit losses. After a tormented 48-hour hustle, the Fed sent out a mammoth news release on Monday morning.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的周末，3月21日和22日，是一场狂热。官员们从家里拨通了评级的电话，完成了仍然保密的计划大纲，并与财政部长姆努钦的团队进行了谈判，以建立一层保险来保护这些努力免受信贷损失。经过48小时的痛苦忙碌后，美联储于周一上午发布了一份庞大的新闻稿。</blockquote></p><p> Headlineshit newswiresat 8 a.m., well before American markets opened. The Fed promised tobuy an unlimited amountof Treasury debt and to purchase commercial mortgage-backed securities — efforts to save the most central markets.</p><p><blockquote>头条新闻周六上午8点，远在美国市场开盘之前。美联储承诺购买无限量的国债和商业抵押贷款支持证券——这是为了拯救最核心的市场。</blockquote></p><p> The announcement also pushed the central bank into uncharted territory. The Fed was established in 1913 toserve as a lender of last resortto troubled banks. On March 23, it pledged to funnel help far beyond that financial core. The Fed said it would buy corporate debt and help to get loans to midsize businesses for the first time ever.</p><p><blockquote>这一声明也将央行推向了未知的领域。美联储成立于1913年，作为陷入困境的银行的最后贷款人。3月23日，它承诺提供远远超出财务核心的帮助。美联储表示，将首次购买企业债务并帮助中型企业获得贷款。</blockquote></p><p> It finally worked. The dash for cash turned around starting that day.</p><p><blockquote>终于奏效了。从那天开始，现金热潮出现了转机。</blockquote></p><p> The March 23 efforts took an approach that Mr. Lehnert referred to internally as “covering the waterfront.” Fed economists had discerned which capital marketswere tied to huge numbers of jobsand made sure that every one of them had a Fed support program.</p><p><blockquote>3月23日的努力采取了莱纳特先生在内部称之为“覆盖海滨”的方法。美联储经济学家已经辨别出哪些资本市场与大量就业岗位相关，并确保每个资本市场都有美联储的支持计划。</blockquote></p><p> On April 9, officials put final pieces of the strategy into play. Backed by a huge pot of insurance money from a rescue package just passed by Congress — lawmakers had handed the Treasury up to$454 billion— they announced that they would expand already-announced efforts and set up another to help funnel credit to states and big cities.</p><p><blockquote>4月9日，官员们实施了该战略的最后部分。在国会刚刚通过的救助计划中获得的巨额保险金（立法者向财政部提供了高达4540亿美元的资金）的支持下，他们宣布将扩大已经宣布的努力，并建立另一个计划来帮助向各州和大城市输送信贷。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s 2008 rescue effort had been widely criticized as a bank bailout. The 2020 redux was to rescue everything.</p><p><blockquote>美联储2008年的救助行动被广泛批评为银行救助。2020年的redux是为了拯救一切。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Fed, along with the Treasury, most likely saved the nation from a crippling financial crisis that would have made it harder for businesses to survive, rebound and rehire, intensifying the economic damage the coronavirus went on to inflict. Many of the programs have since ended or are scheduled to do so, and markets are functioning fine.</p><p><blockquote>美联储和财政部很可能将美国从一场严重的金融危机中拯救出来，这场危机将使企业更难生存、反弹和重新雇用，加剧冠状病毒继续造成的经济损害。许多项目已经结束或计划结束，市场运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> But there’s no guarantee that the calm will prove permanent.</p><p><blockquote>但是不能保证这种平静会是永久的。</blockquote></p><p> “The financial system remains vulnerable” to a repeat of last March’s sweeping disaster as “the underlying structures and mechanisms that gave rise to the turmoil are still in place,” the Financial Stability Board, a global oversight body, wrote in a meltdownpost-mortem.</p><p><blockquote>全球监督机构金融稳定委员会（Financial Stability Board）在一份meltdownpost-mortem中写道，“金融体系仍然容易”重演去年3月的全面灾难，因为“导致动荡的潜在结构和机制仍然存在”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Comes Next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来会发生什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The question policymakers and lawmakers are now grappling with is how to fix those vulnerabilities, which could portend problems for the Treasury market and money market funds if investors get seriously spooked again.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者和立法者现在正在努力解决的问题是如何修复这些漏洞，如果投资者再次受到严重惊吓，这可能预示着国债市场和货币市场基金将出现问题。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s rescue ramps up the urgency to safeguard the system. Central bankers set a precedent by saving previously untouched markets, raising the possibility that investors will take risks, assuming the central bank will always step in if things get bad enough.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的救助增加了保护该体系的紧迫性。央行行长们开创了一个先例，拯救了以前未触及的市场，增加了投资者承担风险的可能性，假设如果情况变得足够糟糕，央行总是会介入。</blockquote></p><p> There’s some bipartisan appetite for reform: Trump-era regulators began a review of money markets, and Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has said she will focus on financial oversight. But change won’t be easy. Protests in the street helped to galvanize financial reform after 2008. There is little popular outrage over the March 2020 meltdown, both because it was set off by a health crisis — not bad banker behavior — and because it was resolved quickly.</p><p><blockquote>两党都有一些改革兴趣：特朗普时代的监管机构开始对货币市场进行审查，财政部长珍妮特·L·耶伦表示，她将重点关注金融监管。但是改变并不容易。街头抗议有助于刺激2008年后的金融改革。人们对2020年3月的崩溃几乎没有感到愤怒，这既是因为它是由健康危机引发的——而不是不良银行家行为——也因为它很快得到了解决。</blockquote></p><p> Industry playersare already mobilizing a lobbying effort, and they may find allies in resisting regulation, including among lawmakers.</p><p><blockquote>行业参与者已经在动员游说努力，他们可能会找到抵制监管的盟友，包括立法者。</blockquote></p><p> “I would point out that money market funds have been remarkably stable and successful,” Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, said during aJan. 19 hearing.</p><p><blockquote>“我想指出的是，货币市场基金一直非常稳定和成功，”宾夕法尼亚州共和党参议员帕特里克·J·图米(Patrick J.Toomey)在aJan期间表示。19听证会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/business/economy/fed-2020-financial-crisis-covid.html\">NewYork Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/business/economy/fed-2020-financial-crisis-covid.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176435771","content_text":"The Federal Reserve crossed red lines to rescue markets in March 2020. Is there enough momentum to fix the weaknesses the episode exposed?\n\nBy the middle of March 2020 a sense of anxiety pervaded the Federal Reserve. The fast-unfolding coronavirus pandemic was rippling through global markets in dangerous ways.\nTrading in Treasurys — the government securities that are considered among the safest assets in the world, and the bedrock of the entire bond market — had become disjointed as panicked investors tried to sell everything they owned to raise cash. Buyers were scarce. The Treasury market had never broken down so badly, even in the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.\nThe Fed called an emergency meeting on March 15, a Sunday. Lorie Logan, who oversees the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s asset portfolio, summarized the brewing crisis. She and her colleagues dialed into a conference from the fortresslike New York Fed headquarters, unable to travel to Washington given the meeting’s impromptu nature and the spreading virus. Regional bank presidents assembled across America stared back from the monitor. Washington-based governors were arrayed in a socially distanced ring around the Fed Board’s mahogany table.\nMs. Logan delivered a blunt assessment: While the Fed had been buying government-backed bonds the week before to soothe the volatile Treasury market, market contacts said it hadn’t been enough. To fix things, the Fed mightneed to buy much more. And fast.\nFed officials are an argumentative bunch, and they fiercely debated the other issue before them that day, whether to cut interest rates to near-zero.\nBut, in a testament to the gravity of the breakdown in the government bond market, there was no dissent about whether the central bank needed to stem what was happening by stepping in as a buyer. That afternoon, the Fedannounced an enormous purchase program, promising to make $500 billion in government bond purchases and to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed debt.\nIt wasn’t the central bank’s first effort to stop the unfolding disaster, nor would it be the last. But it was a clear signal that the 2020 meltdown echoed the 2008 crisis in seriousness and complexity. Where the housing crisis and ensuing crash took years to unfold, the coronavirus panic had struck in weeks.\nAs March wore on, each hour incubating a new calamity, policymakers were forced tocross boundaries, break precedentsand make new uses of the U.S. government’s vast powers to save domestic markets, keep cash flowing abroad and prevent a full-blown financial crisis from compounding a public health tragedy.\nThe rescue worked, so it is easy to forget the peril America’s investors and businesses faced a year ago. But the systemwide weaknesses that were exposed last March remain, and are now under the microscope of Washington policymakers.\nHow It Started\nFinancial markets began to wobble on Feb. 21, 2020, when Italian authorities announced localized lockdowns.\nAt first, the sell-off in risky investments was normal — a rational “flight to safety” while the global economic outlook was rapidly darkening. Stocks plummeted, demand for many corporate bonds disappeared, and people poured into super-secure investments, like U.S. Treasury bonds.\nOn March 3, as market jitters intensified, the Fedcut interest ratesto about 1 percent — its first emergency move since the 2008 financial crisis. Some analysts chidedthe Fed for overreacting, and others asked an obvious question: What could the Fed realistically do in the face of a public health threat?\n“We do recognize that a rate cut will not reduce the rate of infection, it won’t fix a broken supply chain,” Chair Jerome H. Powell said at a news conference, explaining that the Fed was doing what it could to keep credit cheap and available.\nBut the health disaster was quickly metastasizing into a market crisis.\nLockdowns in Italy deepened during the second week of March, and oil prices plummeted as a price war raged, sending tremors across stock, currency and commodity markets. Then, something weird started to happen: Instead of snapping up Treasury bonds, arguably the world’s safest investment, investors began trying to sell them.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt — which usually drops when investors seek safe harbor — started to rise on March 10, suggesting investors didn’t want safe assets. They wanted cold, hard cash, and they were trying to sell anything and everything to get it.\nHow It Worsened\nReligion works through churches. Democracy through congresses and parliaments. Capitalism is an idea made real through a series of relationships between debtors and creditors, risk and reward. And by last March 11, those equations were no longer adding up.\nThat was the day the World Health Organizationofficially declaredthe virus outbreak a pandemic, and the morning on which it was becoming clear that a sell-off had spiraled into a panic.\nThe Fed began to roll out measure after measure in a bid to soothe conditions, first offeringhuge temporary infusions of cashto banks, thenaccelerating plansto buy Treasury bonds as that market swung out of whack.\nBut by Friday, March 13, government bond markets were just one of many problems.\nInvestors had been pulling their cash from prime money market mutual funds, where they park it to earn a slightly higher return, for days. But those outflows began to accelerate, prompting the funds themselves to pull back sharply from short-term corporate debt markets as they raced to return money to investors. Banks that serve as market conduits were less willing than usual to buy and hold new securities, even just temporarily. That made it harder to sell everything, be it a company bond or Treasury debt.\nThe Fed’s announcement after its March 15 emergency meeting — that it would slash rates and buy bonds in the most critical markets — was an attempt to get things under control.\nBut Mr. Powell worried that the fix would fall short as short- and long-term debt of all kinds became hard to sell. He approached Andreas Lehnert, director of the Fed’s financial stability division, in the Washington boardroom after the meeting and asked him to prepare emergency lending programs, which the central bank had used in 2008 to serve as a support system to unraveling markets.\nMr. Lehnert went straight to a musty office, where he communicated with Fed technicians, economists and lawyers via instant messenger and video chats — in-person meetings were already restricted — and worked late into the night to get the paperwork ready.\nStarting that Tuesday morning, after another day of market carnage, the central bank began to unveil the steady drip of rescue programs Mr. Lehnert and his colleagues had been working on: one to buy upshort-term corporate debtand another to keep funding flowing to key banks. Shortlybefore midnighton Wednesday, March 18, the Fed announced a program to rescue embattled money market funds by offering to effectively take hard-to-sell securities off their hands.\nBut by the end of that week, everything was a mess.Foreign central banks and corporations were offloading U.S. debt, partly to raise dollars companies needed to pay interest and other bills; hedge funds werenixing a highly leveraged tradethat had broken down as the market went haywire, dumping Treasurys into the choked market.Corporate bondandcommercial real estate debt marketslooked dicey as companies faced credit rating downgrades and as hotels and malls saw business prospects tank.\nThe world’s most powerful central bank was throwing solutions at the markets as rapidly as it could, and it wasn’t enough.\nHow They Fixed It\nThe next weekend, March 21 and 22, was a frenzy. Officials dialed into calls from home, completing still-secret program outlines and negotiating with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s team to establish a layer of insurance to protect the efforts against credit losses. After a tormented 48-hour hustle, the Fed sent out a mammoth news release on Monday morning.\nHeadlineshit newswiresat 8 a.m., well before American markets opened. The Fed promised tobuy an unlimited amountof Treasury debt and to purchase commercial mortgage-backed securities — efforts to save the most central markets.\nThe announcement also pushed the central bank into uncharted territory. The Fed was established in 1913 toserve as a lender of last resortto troubled banks. On March 23, it pledged to funnel help far beyond that financial core. The Fed said it would buy corporate debt and help to get loans to midsize businesses for the first time ever.\nIt finally worked. The dash for cash turned around starting that day.\nThe March 23 efforts took an approach that Mr. Lehnert referred to internally as “covering the waterfront.” Fed economists had discerned which capital marketswere tied to huge numbers of jobsand made sure that every one of them had a Fed support program.\nOn April 9, officials put final pieces of the strategy into play. Backed by a huge pot of insurance money from a rescue package just passed by Congress — lawmakers had handed the Treasury up to$454 billion— they announced that they would expand already-announced efforts and set up another to help funnel credit to states and big cities.\nThe Fed’s 2008 rescue effort had been widely criticized as a bank bailout. The 2020 redux was to rescue everything.\nThe Fed, along with the Treasury, most likely saved the nation from a crippling financial crisis that would have made it harder for businesses to survive, rebound and rehire, intensifying the economic damage the coronavirus went on to inflict. Many of the programs have since ended or are scheduled to do so, and markets are functioning fine.\nBut there’s no guarantee that the calm will prove permanent.\n“The financial system remains vulnerable” to a repeat of last March’s sweeping disaster as “the underlying structures and mechanisms that gave rise to the turmoil are still in place,” the Financial Stability Board, a global oversight body, wrote in a meltdownpost-mortem.\nWhat Comes Next\nThe question policymakers and lawmakers are now grappling with is how to fix those vulnerabilities, which could portend problems for the Treasury market and money market funds if investors get seriously spooked again.\nThe Fed’s rescue ramps up the urgency to safeguard the system. Central bankers set a precedent by saving previously untouched markets, raising the possibility that investors will take risks, assuming the central bank will always step in if things get bad enough.\nThere’s some bipartisan appetite for reform: Trump-era regulators began a review of money markets, and Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has said she will focus on financial oversight. But change won’t be easy. Protests in the street helped to galvanize financial reform after 2008. There is little popular outrage over the March 2020 meltdown, both because it was set off by a health crisis — not bad banker behavior — and because it was resolved quickly.\nIndustry playersare already mobilizing a lobbying effort, and they may find allies in resisting regulation, including among lawmakers.\n“I would point out that money market funds have been remarkably stable and successful,” Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, said during aJan. 19 hearing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322129674,"gmtCreate":1615784702898,"gmtModify":1703492910267,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322129674","repostId":"1167368413","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326726639,"gmtCreate":1615717991421,"gmtModify":1703492361186,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326726639","repostId":"2118630979","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326861726,"gmtCreate":1615614700865,"gmtModify":1703491652787,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326861726","repostId":"2118630979","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328705845,"gmtCreate":1615557699287,"gmtModify":1703490880063,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328705845","repostId":"2118950919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321708638,"gmtCreate":1615467736224,"gmtModify":1703489451350,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321708638","repostId":"1199156489","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199156489","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615452861,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199156489?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 16:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199156489","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"From 02:00 U.S. East time March 14(this Sunday),the North America region entered daylight saving tim","content":"<p>From&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;March&nbsp;14(this&nbsp;Sunday),the&nbsp;North America&nbsp;region&nbsp;entered&nbsp;daylight saving&nbsp;time,until&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;ends&nbsp;on&nbsp;November&nbsp;7,2021.</p><p><blockquote>从美国东部时间3月14日（本周日）02：00开始，北美地区进入夏令时，直到美国东部时间2021年11月7日02：00结束。</blockquote></p><p>So,starting&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday,March&nbsp;14,the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;market&nbsp;will&nbsp;open&nbsp;and&nbsp;close&nbsp;one&nbsp;hour&nbsp;ahead&nbsp;of&nbsp;schedule&nbsp;during&nbsp;north&nbsp;american&nbsp;daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S.&nbsp;trading&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;changed&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30&nbsp;beijing&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;a.m.the&nbsp;next&nbsp;day,pre-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;16:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30,after-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;8:00.</p><p><blockquote>于是，从3月14日周一开始，美国市场将在北美夏令时期间提前一小时开盘和收盘，即美国交易时间改为北京时间21:30至次日凌晨04:00，交易前时间为16:00至21:30，交易后时间为04:00至8:00。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is daylight saving time?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是夏令时？</b></blockquote></p><p>The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.</p><p><blockquote>夏令时是在夏季将时钟拨快一小时的做法，这样白天会持续更长时间到晚上。北美和欧洲的大部分地区遵循这一习俗，而其他地方的大多数国家则不这样做。</blockquote></p><p>Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>夏威夷、美属萨摩亚、关岛、波多黎各、美属维尔京群岛和亚利桑那州大部分地区不实行夏令时。坚持现状是义不容辞的责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-11 16:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;March&nbsp;14(this&nbsp;Sunday),the&nbsp;North America&nbsp;region&nbsp;entered&nbsp;daylight saving&nbsp;time,until&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;ends&nbsp;on&nbsp;November&nbsp;7,2021.</p><p><blockquote>从美国东部时间3月14日（本周日）02：00开始，北美地区进入夏令时，直到美国东部时间2021年11月7日02：00结束。</blockquote></p><p>So,starting&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday,March&nbsp;14,the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;market&nbsp;will&nbsp;open&nbsp;and&nbsp;close&nbsp;one&nbsp;hour&nbsp;ahead&nbsp;of&nbsp;schedule&nbsp;during&nbsp;north&nbsp;american&nbsp;daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S.&nbsp;trading&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;changed&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30&nbsp;beijing&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;a.m.the&nbsp;next&nbsp;day,pre-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;16:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30,after-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;8:00.</p><p><blockquote>于是，从3月14日周一开始，美国市场将在北美夏令时期间提前一小时开盘和收盘，即美国交易时间改为北京时间21:30至次日凌晨04:00，交易前时间为16:00至21:30，交易后时间为04:00至8:00。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is daylight saving time?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是夏令时？</b></blockquote></p><p>The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.</p><p><blockquote>夏令时是在夏季将时钟拨快一小时的做法，这样白天会持续更长时间到晚上。北美和欧洲的大部分地区遵循这一习俗，而其他地方的大多数国家则不这样做。</blockquote></p><p>Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>夏威夷、美属萨摩亚、关岛、波多黎各、美属维尔京群岛和亚利桑那州大部分地区不实行夏令时。坚持现状是义不容辞的责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199156489","content_text":"From 02:00 U.S. East time March 14(this Sunday),the North America region entered daylight saving time,until 02:00 U.S. East time ends on November 7,2021.So,starting on Monday,March 14,the U.S. market will open and close one hour ahead of schedule during north american daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S. trading time will be changed to 21:30 beijing time to 04:00 a.m.the next day,pre-trade time will be 16:00 to 21:30,after-trade time will be 04:00 to 8:00.What is daylight saving time?The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323743359,"gmtCreate":1615380721571,"gmtModify":1703488145814,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323743359","repostId":"1186280918","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323982487,"gmtCreate":1615299181049,"gmtModify":1703486955759,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323982487","repostId":"1158287133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158287133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615298882,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158287133?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher<blockquote>道指32,000？为什么指数应该高出100万点以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158287133","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching","content":"<p>Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching stratospheric levels</p><p><blockquote>基准指数存在固有的怪癖，例如不计算股息，这使其无法达到极高的水平</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average should be trading not near 32,000 but actually above 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数的交易价格不应该接近32,000点，而实际上应该高于120万点。</blockquote></p><p> I am not making some wildly bullish prediction about the stock market in coming years. I am instead reporting where the Dow&nbsp;would be trading now if it had incorporated dividends that component companies have paid over the years, as well as other corporate actions that affect stock prices, such as stock dividends and rights issues.</p><p><blockquote>我不会对未来几年的股市做出过于乐观的预测。相反，我报告的是，如果道琼斯指数纳入了成分股公司多年来支付的股息，以及其他影响股价的公司行为，例如股票股息和配股，它现在的交易地点。</blockquote></p><p> New&nbsp;research from the National Bureau of Economic Research&nbsp;calculates that had all such events been taken into account since Oct. 31, 1928, the Dow would have closed at 1,113,047 on Dec, 31, 2019. The Dow’s gain over the subsequent 15 months would propel its “true” value currently to more than 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家经济研究局的最新研究计算出，如果考虑到1928年10月31日以来的所有此类事件，道琼斯指数将于2019年12月31日收于1,113,047点。道琼斯指数在随后15个月的上涨将推动其“真实”价值目前超过120万点。</blockquote></p><p> The study’s authors are John Shoven and Clemens Sialm, finance professors at Stanford University and the University of Texas at Austin, respectively, along with Jacky Lin and Genevieve Selden. The researchers tell a sordid tale of the Dow’s construction over the decades — a story that should be filed, along with sausage and legislation, in the category of “if you like it, don’t look too closely to how it is made.”</p><p><blockquote>该研究的作者分别是斯坦福大学和德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的金融学教授John Shoven和Clemens Sialm，以及Jacky Lin和Genevieve Selden。研究人员讲述了一个关于道琼斯指数几十年来建造的肮脏故事——这个故事应该与香肠和立法一起被归档在“如果你喜欢它，就不要太仔细地看它是如何制造的”类别中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price-weighted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格加权</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the DJIA’s peculiarities is that it is a price-weighted index, which means that the contribution a stock makes to its performance is a function of how high- or low-priced it is. That makes no theoretical sense.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯的特点之一是它是一个价格加权指数，这意味着股票对其业绩的贡献取决于其价格的高低。这在理论上没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the highest-priced stock currently in the DJIA, which is UnitedHealth Group&nbsp;with a recent price of about $350 per share. It has a 7.3% weighting in the index, compared to just a 1.0% weighting for Cisco Systems,the lowest-priced stock in the Dow at close to $48 per share. As a result, Cisco would need to perform more than seven times better than United Health in order to have the same impact on the Dow’s overall return.</p><p><blockquote>以目前道琼斯上价格最高的股票为例，它是联合健康集团，最近的价格约为每股350美元。它在该指数中的权重为7.3%，而思科系统公司的权重仅为1.0%，思科系统公司是道琼斯指数中价格最低的股票，接近每股48美元。因此，思科的表现需要比联合健康好七倍以上，才能对道琼斯指数的整体回报产生同样的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Split adjustments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>拆分调整</b></blockquote></p><p> One consequence of this price-weighting is that a stock split will have a big impact on a stock’s weight in the Dow, even though the split is an accounting entry with no real-world significance. Consider Apple,which last summer split its shares four-for-one. As a result of that split, the stock’s weight in the Dow instantly fell by three-quarters. This in fact ended up helping the Dow, since Apple stock has struggled since that split and is&nbsp;now in danger of entering into a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这种价格权重的一个后果是，股票分割将对股票在道琼斯指数中的权重产生重大影响，即使分割是一个没有现实意义的会计分录。以苹果为例，该公司去年夏天将其股票进行了四比一的分割。由于这次分拆，该股在道琼斯指数中的权重立即下跌了四分之三。事实上，这最终帮助了道琼斯指数，因为苹果股票自分拆以来一直在苦苦挣扎，现在有进入熊市的危险。</blockquote></p><p> Another of the Dow’s head-scratching idiosyncrasies is that in some early years it failed to adjust for stock splits for up to several months at a time. Yet another is that, in a number of those early years, split-adjustment factors were rounded to just one decimal point. According to the authors of this new study, this rounding led to discrepancies of as much as 0.4% on the occasion of each split — equivalent to more than 125 Dow points at today’s index level.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数另一个令人挠头的特点是，在最初的几年里，它一次长达几个月的时间里未能针对股票分割进行调整。另一个原因是，在早期的许多年里，分割调整系数被四舍五入到小数点后一位。根据这项新研究的作者，这种四舍五入导致每次分割时的差异高达0.4%——相当于今天的指数水平超过125点。</blockquote></p><p> Another peculiarity: The Dow treated stock dividends differently than stock splits, even though the two are functionally equivalent. According to the research’s authors, the Dow’s component stocks declared 105 stock dividends between them from 1928 through 2019, only 24 of which were reflected in the calculation of the Dow’s value.</p><p><blockquote>另一个特点是：道琼斯指数对待股票股息和股票分割的方式不同，尽管两者在功能上是等效的。该研究的作者表示，从1928年到2019年，道指成分股宣布了105次股票股息，其中只有24次反映在道指价值的计算中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividends</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股息</b></blockquote></p><p> By the far the most consequential methodological decision that the Dow made over the years has been to omit dividends, Professor Sialm told me in an interview. Nearly half of the Dow’s long-term total return since 1928 has come from dividends.</p><p><blockquote>西亚姆教授在接受采访时告诉我，迄今为止，道琼斯指数多年来做出的最重要的方法论决定是省略股息。自1928年以来，道指近一半的长期总回报来自股息。</blockquote></p><p> You might think that this heavy reliance on dividends is unique to the Dow, which is constructed from the bluest of blue-chip stocks that typically offer higher dividend yields. But what the researchers found for the Dow is also true for the U.S. stock market as a whole. Since 1871, according to data from Yale University’s Robert Shiller, the U.S. stock market’s price-only annualized return has been 4.6%, almost precisely half of the market’s 9.3% annualized return on a total-return basis. (See the chart below.)</p><p><blockquote>您可能认为这种对股息的严重依赖是道琼斯指数所独有的，道琼斯指数是由通常提供较高股息收益率的最蓝的蓝筹股构成的。但研究人员对道琼斯指数的发现也适用于整个美国股市。自1871年以来，根据耶鲁大学罗伯特·希勒的数据，美国股市仅按价格计算的年化回报率为4.6%，几乎正好是市场按总回报率计算的9.3%年化回报率的一半。（见下图。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e99e55881bbacc9fb4c6753120044e2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Notice what this means for the near-term, given that the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,-0.54%current yield is just 1.5%. Assuming the future is like the past, and depending on the growth rate of dividends, this low yield points to an expected total return for the stock market from current levels of not much more than 3% annualized. That’s less than a percentage point greater than the&nbsp;10-year breakeven inflation rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意这对短期意味着什么，因为标普500的SPX,-0.54%目前的收益率仅为1.5%。假设未来与过去一样，并且取决于股息的增长率，这种低收益率表明股市的预期总回报率不会超过当前年化3%。这比10年期盈亏平衡通胀率高出不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could the future be different than the past?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来会与过去不同吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The bulls have a solid theoretical response to this otherwise dismal projection. According to a longstanding theory in finance, tracing to work in the 1960s by Franco Modigliani, who in 1985 would win the Nobel Prize in Economics, companies that pay out less in dividends should grow faster. That’s because they can reinvest in their own growth what they otherwise would have paid out to shareholders. A lower dividend yield therefore should translate into an accelerated earnings growth rate and a higher stock price.</p><p><blockquote>多头对这一令人沮丧的预测有坚实的理论回应。根据金融界的一个长期理论，可以追溯到1985年获得诺贝尔经济学奖的佛朗哥·莫迪里阿尼(Franco Modigliani)在20世纪60年代的工作，支付股息较少的公司应该增长更快。这是因为他们可以将原本要支付给股东的资金再投资于自己的增长。因此，较低的股息收益率应该会转化为更快的盈利增长率和更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> If so, stocks’ total return should not be affected by a lower dividend yield, since price appreciation would compensate by making a correspondingly greater contribution.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，股票的总回报不应受到较低股息收益率的影响，因为价格升值将通过做出相应更大的贡献来进行补偿。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, Modigliani advanced his theory when share repurchases did not play a big role in the stock market, and his theory may need to be modified to account for them. If companies take the money they save from paying out fewer dividends and spend it on repurchases instead of investing it in their future growth, then a lower dividend yield may not translate into accelerated subsequent earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，莫迪里阿尼在股票回购在股市中没有发挥很大作用时提出了他的理论，他的理论可能需要修改以解释它们。如果公司将减少股息节省下来的钱用于回购，而不是投资于未来的增长，那么较低的股息收益率可能不会转化为后续盈利增长的加速。</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not it does depends crucially on whether companies repurchase shares when they are undervalued. Their track record here over the past two decades is not encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>是否如此，关键取决于公司是否在股票被低估时回购股票。他们在过去二十年里在这里的记录并不令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> This means we can’t automatically assume that today’s low dividend yield will mean that, in coming years, price appreciation will constitute a greater proportion of stocks’ total return. In an email, Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, pointed out that dividends over the past two decades have represented just as big a proportion of stocks’ total return as in prior decades when dividend yields were much higher. For the 20 years through 2020, Arnott wrote, “the real return on stocks (S&amp;P 500) was 3.8%, of which dividend yield contributed exactly half.”</p><p><blockquote>这意味着我们不能自动假设当今的低股息收益率意味着未来几年价格升值将在股票总回报中占更大比例。Research Affiliates创始人罗伯特·阿诺特(Robert Arnott)在一封电子邮件中指出，过去二十年股息在股票总回报中所占的比例与股息收益率高得多的前几十年一样大。阿诺特写道，截至2020年的20年里，“股票（标普500）的实际回报率为3.8%，其中股息收益率正好贡献了一半。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Sialm added, theory quickly gets complicated when trying to assess the interactions between dividends, price appreciation, and buybacks. There is no guarantee that price appreciation won’t make up for the market’s low current dividend yield. Nevertheless, he continued, it is likely that stock investors face an extended low-growth era.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，Sialm补充道，当试图评估股息、价格升值和回购之间的相互作用时，理论很快就会变得复杂。不能保证价格上涨不会弥补市场当前较低的股息收益率。尽管如此，他继续说道，股票投资者很可能面临一个长期的低增长时代。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher<blockquote>道指32,000？为什么指数应该高出100万点以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher<blockquote>道指32,000？为什么指数应该高出100万点以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-09 22:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching stratospheric levels</p><p><blockquote>基准指数存在固有的怪癖，例如不计算股息，这使其无法达到极高的水平</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average should be trading not near 32,000 but actually above 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数的交易价格不应该接近32,000点，而实际上应该高于120万点。</blockquote></p><p> I am not making some wildly bullish prediction about the stock market in coming years. I am instead reporting where the Dow&nbsp;would be trading now if it had incorporated dividends that component companies have paid over the years, as well as other corporate actions that affect stock prices, such as stock dividends and rights issues.</p><p><blockquote>我不会对未来几年的股市做出过于乐观的预测。相反，我报告的是，如果道琼斯指数纳入了成分股公司多年来支付的股息，以及其他影响股价的公司行为，例如股票股息和配股，它现在的交易地点。</blockquote></p><p> New&nbsp;research from the National Bureau of Economic Research&nbsp;calculates that had all such events been taken into account since Oct. 31, 1928, the Dow would have closed at 1,113,047 on Dec, 31, 2019. The Dow’s gain over the subsequent 15 months would propel its “true” value currently to more than 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家经济研究局的最新研究计算出，如果考虑到1928年10月31日以来的所有此类事件，道琼斯指数将于2019年12月31日收于1,113,047点。道琼斯指数在随后15个月的上涨将推动其“真实”价值目前超过120万点。</blockquote></p><p> The study’s authors are John Shoven and Clemens Sialm, finance professors at Stanford University and the University of Texas at Austin, respectively, along with Jacky Lin and Genevieve Selden. The researchers tell a sordid tale of the Dow’s construction over the decades — a story that should be filed, along with sausage and legislation, in the category of “if you like it, don’t look too closely to how it is made.”</p><p><blockquote>该研究的作者分别是斯坦福大学和德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的金融学教授John Shoven和Clemens Sialm，以及Jacky Lin和Genevieve Selden。研究人员讲述了一个关于道琼斯指数几十年来建造的肮脏故事——这个故事应该与香肠和立法一起被归档在“如果你喜欢它，就不要太仔细地看它是如何制造的”类别中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price-weighted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格加权</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the DJIA’s peculiarities is that it is a price-weighted index, which means that the contribution a stock makes to its performance is a function of how high- or low-priced it is. That makes no theoretical sense.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯的特点之一是它是一个价格加权指数，这意味着股票对其业绩的贡献取决于其价格的高低。这在理论上没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the highest-priced stock currently in the DJIA, which is UnitedHealth Group&nbsp;with a recent price of about $350 per share. It has a 7.3% weighting in the index, compared to just a 1.0% weighting for Cisco Systems,the lowest-priced stock in the Dow at close to $48 per share. As a result, Cisco would need to perform more than seven times better than United Health in order to have the same impact on the Dow’s overall return.</p><p><blockquote>以目前道琼斯上价格最高的股票为例，它是联合健康集团，最近的价格约为每股350美元。它在该指数中的权重为7.3%，而思科系统公司的权重仅为1.0%，思科系统公司是道琼斯指数中价格最低的股票，接近每股48美元。因此，思科的表现需要比联合健康好七倍以上，才能对道琼斯指数的整体回报产生同样的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Split adjustments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>拆分调整</b></blockquote></p><p> One consequence of this price-weighting is that a stock split will have a big impact on a stock’s weight in the Dow, even though the split is an accounting entry with no real-world significance. Consider Apple,which last summer split its shares four-for-one. As a result of that split, the stock’s weight in the Dow instantly fell by three-quarters. This in fact ended up helping the Dow, since Apple stock has struggled since that split and is&nbsp;now in danger of entering into a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这种价格权重的一个后果是，股票分割将对股票在道琼斯指数中的权重产生重大影响，即使分割是一个没有现实意义的会计分录。以苹果为例，该公司去年夏天将其股票进行了四比一的分割。由于这次分拆，该股在道琼斯指数中的权重立即下跌了四分之三。事实上，这最终帮助了道琼斯指数，因为苹果股票自分拆以来一直在苦苦挣扎，现在有进入熊市的危险。</blockquote></p><p> Another of the Dow’s head-scratching idiosyncrasies is that in some early years it failed to adjust for stock splits for up to several months at a time. Yet another is that, in a number of those early years, split-adjustment factors were rounded to just one decimal point. According to the authors of this new study, this rounding led to discrepancies of as much as 0.4% on the occasion of each split — equivalent to more than 125 Dow points at today’s index level.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数另一个令人挠头的特点是，在最初的几年里，它一次长达几个月的时间里未能针对股票分割进行调整。另一个原因是，在早期的许多年里，分割调整系数被四舍五入到小数点后一位。根据这项新研究的作者，这种四舍五入导致每次分割时的差异高达0.4%——相当于今天的指数水平超过125点。</blockquote></p><p> Another peculiarity: The Dow treated stock dividends differently than stock splits, even though the two are functionally equivalent. According to the research’s authors, the Dow’s component stocks declared 105 stock dividends between them from 1928 through 2019, only 24 of which were reflected in the calculation of the Dow’s value.</p><p><blockquote>另一个特点是：道琼斯指数对待股票股息和股票分割的方式不同，尽管两者在功能上是等效的。该研究的作者表示，从1928年到2019年，道指成分股宣布了105次股票股息，其中只有24次反映在道指价值的计算中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividends</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股息</b></blockquote></p><p> By the far the most consequential methodological decision that the Dow made over the years has been to omit dividends, Professor Sialm told me in an interview. Nearly half of the Dow’s long-term total return since 1928 has come from dividends.</p><p><blockquote>西亚姆教授在接受采访时告诉我，迄今为止，道琼斯指数多年来做出的最重要的方法论决定是省略股息。自1928年以来，道指近一半的长期总回报来自股息。</blockquote></p><p> You might think that this heavy reliance on dividends is unique to the Dow, which is constructed from the bluest of blue-chip stocks that typically offer higher dividend yields. But what the researchers found for the Dow is also true for the U.S. stock market as a whole. Since 1871, according to data from Yale University’s Robert Shiller, the U.S. stock market’s price-only annualized return has been 4.6%, almost precisely half of the market’s 9.3% annualized return on a total-return basis. (See the chart below.)</p><p><blockquote>您可能认为这种对股息的严重依赖是道琼斯指数所独有的，道琼斯指数是由通常提供较高股息收益率的最蓝的蓝筹股构成的。但研究人员对道琼斯指数的发现也适用于整个美国股市。自1871年以来，根据耶鲁大学罗伯特·希勒的数据，美国股市仅按价格计算的年化回报率为4.6%，几乎正好是市场按总回报率计算的9.3%年化回报率的一半。（见下图。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e99e55881bbacc9fb4c6753120044e2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Notice what this means for the near-term, given that the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,-0.54%current yield is just 1.5%. Assuming the future is like the past, and depending on the growth rate of dividends, this low yield points to an expected total return for the stock market from current levels of not much more than 3% annualized. That’s less than a percentage point greater than the&nbsp;10-year breakeven inflation rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意这对短期意味着什么，因为标普500的SPX,-0.54%目前的收益率仅为1.5%。假设未来与过去一样，并且取决于股息的增长率，这种低收益率表明股市的预期总回报率不会超过当前年化3%。这比10年期盈亏平衡通胀率高出不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could the future be different than the past?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来会与过去不同吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The bulls have a solid theoretical response to this otherwise dismal projection. According to a longstanding theory in finance, tracing to work in the 1960s by Franco Modigliani, who in 1985 would win the Nobel Prize in Economics, companies that pay out less in dividends should grow faster. That’s because they can reinvest in their own growth what they otherwise would have paid out to shareholders. A lower dividend yield therefore should translate into an accelerated earnings growth rate and a higher stock price.</p><p><blockquote>多头对这一令人沮丧的预测有坚实的理论回应。根据金融界的一个长期理论，可以追溯到1985年获得诺贝尔经济学奖的佛朗哥·莫迪里阿尼(Franco Modigliani)在20世纪60年代的工作，支付股息较少的公司应该增长更快。这是因为他们可以将原本要支付给股东的资金再投资于自己的增长。因此，较低的股息收益率应该会转化为更快的盈利增长率和更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> If so, stocks’ total return should not be affected by a lower dividend yield, since price appreciation would compensate by making a correspondingly greater contribution.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，股票的总回报不应受到较低股息收益率的影响，因为价格升值将通过做出相应更大的贡献来进行补偿。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, Modigliani advanced his theory when share repurchases did not play a big role in the stock market, and his theory may need to be modified to account for them. If companies take the money they save from paying out fewer dividends and spend it on repurchases instead of investing it in their future growth, then a lower dividend yield may not translate into accelerated subsequent earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，莫迪里阿尼在股票回购在股市中没有发挥很大作用时提出了他的理论，他的理论可能需要修改以解释它们。如果公司将减少股息节省下来的钱用于回购，而不是投资于未来的增长，那么较低的股息收益率可能不会转化为后续盈利增长的加速。</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not it does depends crucially on whether companies repurchase shares when they are undervalued. Their track record here over the past two decades is not encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>是否如此，关键取决于公司是否在股票被低估时回购股票。他们在过去二十年里在这里的记录并不令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> This means we can’t automatically assume that today’s low dividend yield will mean that, in coming years, price appreciation will constitute a greater proportion of stocks’ total return. In an email, Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, pointed out that dividends over the past two decades have represented just as big a proportion of stocks’ total return as in prior decades when dividend yields were much higher. For the 20 years through 2020, Arnott wrote, “the real return on stocks (S&amp;P 500) was 3.8%, of which dividend yield contributed exactly half.”</p><p><blockquote>这意味着我们不能自动假设当今的低股息收益率意味着未来几年价格升值将在股票总回报中占更大比例。Research Affiliates创始人罗伯特·阿诺特(Robert Arnott)在一封电子邮件中指出，过去二十年股息在股票总回报中所占的比例与股息收益率高得多的前几十年一样大。阿诺特写道，截至2020年的20年里，“股票（标普500）的实际回报率为3.8%，其中股息收益率正好贡献了一半。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Sialm added, theory quickly gets complicated when trying to assess the interactions between dividends, price appreciation, and buybacks. There is no guarantee that price appreciation won’t make up for the market’s low current dividend yield. Nevertheless, he continued, it is likely that stock investors face an extended low-growth era.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，Sialm补充道，当试图评估股息、价格升值和回购之间的相互作用时，理论很快就会变得复杂。不能保证价格上涨不会弥补市场当前较低的股息收益率。尽管如此，他继续说道，股票投资者很可能面临一个长期的低增长时代。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-32-000-why-the-index-should-be-more-than-1-million-points-higher-11615248554?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-32-000-why-the-index-should-be-more-than-1-million-points-higher-11615248554?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1158287133","content_text":"Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching stratospheric levels\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average should be trading not near 32,000 but actually above 1.2 million.\nI am not making some wildly bullish prediction about the stock market in coming years. I am instead reporting where the Dow would be trading now if it had incorporated dividends that component companies have paid over the years, as well as other corporate actions that affect stock prices, such as stock dividends and rights issues.\nNew research from the National Bureau of Economic Research calculates that had all such events been taken into account since Oct. 31, 1928, the Dow would have closed at 1,113,047 on Dec, 31, 2019. The Dow’s gain over the subsequent 15 months would propel its “true” value currently to more than 1.2 million.\nThe study’s authors are John Shoven and Clemens Sialm, finance professors at Stanford University and the University of Texas at Austin, respectively, along with Jacky Lin and Genevieve Selden. The researchers tell a sordid tale of the Dow’s construction over the decades — a story that should be filed, along with sausage and legislation, in the category of “if you like it, don’t look too closely to how it is made.”\nPrice-weighted\nOne of the DJIA’s peculiarities is that it is a price-weighted index, which means that the contribution a stock makes to its performance is a function of how high- or low-priced it is. That makes no theoretical sense.\nConsider the highest-priced stock currently in the DJIA, which is UnitedHealth Group with a recent price of about $350 per share. It has a 7.3% weighting in the index, compared to just a 1.0% weighting for Cisco Systems,the lowest-priced stock in the Dow at close to $48 per share. As a result, Cisco would need to perform more than seven times better than United Health in order to have the same impact on the Dow’s overall return.\nSplit adjustments\nOne consequence of this price-weighting is that a stock split will have a big impact on a stock’s weight in the Dow, even though the split is an accounting entry with no real-world significance. Consider Apple,which last summer split its shares four-for-one. As a result of that split, the stock’s weight in the Dow instantly fell by three-quarters. This in fact ended up helping the Dow, since Apple stock has struggled since that split and is now in danger of entering into a bear market.\nAnother of the Dow’s head-scratching idiosyncrasies is that in some early years it failed to adjust for stock splits for up to several months at a time. Yet another is that, in a number of those early years, split-adjustment factors were rounded to just one decimal point. According to the authors of this new study, this rounding led to discrepancies of as much as 0.4% on the occasion of each split — equivalent to more than 125 Dow points at today’s index level.\nAnother peculiarity: The Dow treated stock dividends differently than stock splits, even though the two are functionally equivalent. According to the research’s authors, the Dow’s component stocks declared 105 stock dividends between them from 1928 through 2019, only 24 of which were reflected in the calculation of the Dow’s value.\nDividends\nBy the far the most consequential methodological decision that the Dow made over the years has been to omit dividends, Professor Sialm told me in an interview. Nearly half of the Dow’s long-term total return since 1928 has come from dividends.\nYou might think that this heavy reliance on dividends is unique to the Dow, which is constructed from the bluest of blue-chip stocks that typically offer higher dividend yields. But what the researchers found for the Dow is also true for the U.S. stock market as a whole. Since 1871, according to data from Yale University’s Robert Shiller, the U.S. stock market’s price-only annualized return has been 4.6%, almost precisely half of the market’s 9.3% annualized return on a total-return basis. (See the chart below.)\n\nNotice what this means for the near-term, given that the S&P 500’sSPX,-0.54%current yield is just 1.5%. Assuming the future is like the past, and depending on the growth rate of dividends, this low yield points to an expected total return for the stock market from current levels of not much more than 3% annualized. That’s less than a percentage point greater than the 10-year breakeven inflation rate.\nCould the future be different than the past?\nThe bulls have a solid theoretical response to this otherwise dismal projection. According to a longstanding theory in finance, tracing to work in the 1960s by Franco Modigliani, who in 1985 would win the Nobel Prize in Economics, companies that pay out less in dividends should grow faster. That’s because they can reinvest in their own growth what they otherwise would have paid out to shareholders. A lower dividend yield therefore should translate into an accelerated earnings growth rate and a higher stock price.\nIf so, stocks’ total return should not be affected by a lower dividend yield, since price appreciation would compensate by making a correspondingly greater contribution.\nCrucially, Modigliani advanced his theory when share repurchases did not play a big role in the stock market, and his theory may need to be modified to account for them. If companies take the money they save from paying out fewer dividends and spend it on repurchases instead of investing it in their future growth, then a lower dividend yield may not translate into accelerated subsequent earnings growth.\nWhether or not it does depends crucially on whether companies repurchase shares when they are undervalued. Their track record here over the past two decades is not encouraging.\nThis means we can’t automatically assume that today’s low dividend yield will mean that, in coming years, price appreciation will constitute a greater proportion of stocks’ total return. In an email, Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, pointed out that dividends over the past two decades have represented just as big a proportion of stocks’ total return as in prior decades when dividend yields were much higher. For the 20 years through 2020, Arnott wrote, “the real return on stocks (S&P 500) was 3.8%, of which dividend yield contributed exactly half.”\nTo be sure, Sialm added, theory quickly gets complicated when trying to assess the interactions between dividends, price appreciation, and buybacks. There is no guarantee that price appreciation won’t make up for the market’s low current dividend yield. Nevertheless, he continued, it is likely that stock investors face an extended low-growth era.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329738728,"gmtCreate":1615279209364,"gmtModify":1703486641817,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329738728","repostId":"1183729076","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183729076","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615278840,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183729076?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airbnb, Lyft and Other Stocks Set to Benefit From a Consumer Spending Boom<blockquote>Airbnb、Lyft和其他股票将受益于消费者支出热潮</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183729076","media":"Barrons","summary":"The strongest consumer stock backdrop in decades may be around the corner and there are plenty of st","content":"<p>The strongest consumer stock backdrop in decades may be around the corner and there are plenty of stocks well positioned to benefit, according to Jefferies analysts.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师表示，几十年来最强劲的消费股背景可能即将到来，而且许多股票都处于有利地位，可以受益。</blockquote></p><p> A surge in personal income, alongside the reopening of the economy will “unleash substantial pent-up demand” in service sector consumption, said chief economist Aneta Markowska in a note on Sunday. She projected personal consumption expenditure (PCE)—a measure of consumer spending—to grow 7% this year and 4.1% in 2022. That assumes average PCE growth of more than 4% for eight consecutive quarters for the time since the 1990s.Stimulus and pent-up demandwould indicate strong spending at the high and low ends, she added.</p><p><blockquote>首席经济学家Aneta Markowska在周日的一份报告中表示，个人收入的激增以及经济的重新开放将“释放服务业消费中被压抑的大量需求”。她预计个人消费支出(PCE)（衡量消费者支出的指标）今年将增长7%，2022年将增长4.1%。这是假设自20世纪90年代以来连续八个季度平均PCE增长率超过4%。她补充说，刺激和被压抑的需求将表明高端和低端的支出强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analysts covering a number of sectors used Markowska’s estimates to pick stocks most exposed to such a surge in consumption.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)涵盖多个行业的分析师利用Markowska的估计来挑选受消费激增影响最大的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Equity analyst Brent Thill said ride-sharing companyLyftwas one of his top reopening plays for 2021, as people return to bars, restaurants and other hospitality venues. He noted that Lyft shifted focus to its cost structure during the Covid-19 pandemic, which should “produce outsized leverage” as revenues rebound. He projected a return to pre-pandemic revenue levels by the fourth quarter, rating the stock a buy with a target price of $75 and an upside target of $85.</p><p><blockquote>股票分析师布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Thill)表示，随着人们重返酒吧、餐馆和其他接待场所，拼车公司Lyft是他2021年重新开业的热门公司之一。他指出，Lyft在Covid-19大流行期间将重点转移到其成本结构上，随着收入反弹，这应该会“产生巨大的杠杆作用”。他预计到第四季度收入将恢复到大流行前的水平，并将该股评级为买入，目标价为75美元，上行目标为85美元。</blockquote></p><p> Thill also said online travel names would be among the biggest beneficiaries of the accelerating vaccine rollout and a subsequent travel rebound, pickingAirbnband Booking. He gave Airbnb a buy rating, with a target price of $210 and upside target price of $250, while Booking had a hold rating with an upside target of $2,700.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔还表示，在线旅游公司将成为疫苗加速推出和随后旅游反弹的最大受益者之一，选择AirbnBand Booking。他给予爱彼迎买入评级，目标价210美元，上行目标价250美元，Booking持有评级，上行目标价2700美元。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to airlines, one of the hardest-hit sectors throughout the pandemic, equity analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu saidSouthwest Airlineswas best placed to benefit from pent-up demand in the second half of the year. She said domestic travel restrictions were likely to be lifted before international restrictions, giving the airline an advantage, adding that it was set to “aggressively take market share” from its peers. She rated the stock a buy with an upside target of $80, compared with Friday’s closing price of $56.92.</p><p><blockquote>谈到航空业（整个疫情中受打击最严重的行业之一），股票分析师希拉·卡亚奥格鲁(Sheila Kahyaoglu)表示，西南航空最有可能从下半年被压抑的需求中受益。她表示，国内旅行限制可能会在国际限制之前取消，这将使该航空公司具有优势，并补充说，该公司将从同行那里“积极夺取市场份额”。她将该股评级为买入，上行目标为80美元，上周五收盘价为56.92美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the restaurants and food service sector, analysts Andy Barish and Alexander Slagle said the full-service segment was likely to benefit the most from the recovery, with pent-up demand for food outside of the home emerging as a powerful driver. They highlightedOutback SteakhouseownerBloomin’ Brandsand Chili’s ownerBrinkeras two buy-rated stocks to watch.</p><p><blockquote>在餐馆和食品服务行业，分析师安迪·巴里什（Andy Barish）和亚历山大·斯拉格（Alexander Slagle）表示，全方位服务领域可能从复苏中受益最多，被压抑的家庭以外食品需求成为强大的驱动力。他们重点介绍了Outback牛排餐厅老板Bloomin'Brands和Chili's老板Brinkeras两只值得关注的买入评级股票。</blockquote></p><p> In the food sector itself, analyst Rob Dickerson said&nbsp;Beyond Meat,J&amp;J Snack Foods&nbsp;and&nbsp;Lamb Westonhad the most potential upside due to its exposure to the food service channel, but he rated all three stocks ‘hold’.</p><p><blockquote>在食品行业本身，分析师Rob Dickerson表示，Beyond Meat、强生休闲食品和Lamb Weston由于涉足食品服务渠道而具有最大的潜在上涨空间，但他将这三只股票评级为“持有”。</blockquote></p><p> The report also selects a host of retail names, including home improvement storesLowe’sandHome Depot,and major retailers such asKohl’sandWalmartas foot traffic picks up and spending increases.</p><p><blockquote>该报告还选择了许多零售商，包括家装商店Lowe’s和Home Depot，以及主要零售商，如Kohl’s和Walmartas，客流量增加，支出增加。</blockquote></p><p> Value-orientated names in the specialty retail industry, such asDollar General,BurlingtonandFive Belowwere also mentioned, whileCaesars EntertainmentandSix Flagswere preferred in the gaming and leisure sector.</p><p><blockquote>还提到了专业零售行业中以价值为导向的公司，例如Dollar General、Burlington和Five Belows，而游戏和休闲行业中更受青睐的是凯撒娱乐和六旗。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbnb, Lyft and Other Stocks Set to Benefit From a Consumer Spending Boom<blockquote>Airbnb、Lyft和其他股票将受益于消费者支出热潮</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbnb, Lyft and Other Stocks Set to Benefit From a Consumer Spending Boom<blockquote>Airbnb、Lyft和其他股票将受益于消费者支出热潮</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-09 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The strongest consumer stock backdrop in decades may be around the corner and there are plenty of stocks well positioned to benefit, according to Jefferies analysts.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师表示，几十年来最强劲的消费股背景可能即将到来，而且许多股票都处于有利地位，可以受益。</blockquote></p><p> A surge in personal income, alongside the reopening of the economy will “unleash substantial pent-up demand” in service sector consumption, said chief economist Aneta Markowska in a note on Sunday. She projected personal consumption expenditure (PCE)—a measure of consumer spending—to grow 7% this year and 4.1% in 2022. That assumes average PCE growth of more than 4% for eight consecutive quarters for the time since the 1990s.Stimulus and pent-up demandwould indicate strong spending at the high and low ends, she added.</p><p><blockquote>首席经济学家Aneta Markowska在周日的一份报告中表示，个人收入的激增以及经济的重新开放将“释放服务业消费中被压抑的大量需求”。她预计个人消费支出(PCE)（衡量消费者支出的指标）今年将增长7%，2022年将增长4.1%。这是假设自20世纪90年代以来连续八个季度平均PCE增长率超过4%。她补充说，刺激和被压抑的需求将表明高端和低端的支出强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analysts covering a number of sectors used Markowska’s estimates to pick stocks most exposed to such a surge in consumption.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)涵盖多个行业的分析师利用Markowska的估计来挑选受消费激增影响最大的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Equity analyst Brent Thill said ride-sharing companyLyftwas one of his top reopening plays for 2021, as people return to bars, restaurants and other hospitality venues. He noted that Lyft shifted focus to its cost structure during the Covid-19 pandemic, which should “produce outsized leverage” as revenues rebound. He projected a return to pre-pandemic revenue levels by the fourth quarter, rating the stock a buy with a target price of $75 and an upside target of $85.</p><p><blockquote>股票分析师布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Thill)表示，随着人们重返酒吧、餐馆和其他接待场所，拼车公司Lyft是他2021年重新开业的热门公司之一。他指出，Lyft在Covid-19大流行期间将重点转移到其成本结构上，随着收入反弹，这应该会“产生巨大的杠杆作用”。他预计到第四季度收入将恢复到大流行前的水平，并将该股评级为买入，目标价为75美元，上行目标为85美元。</blockquote></p><p> Thill also said online travel names would be among the biggest beneficiaries of the accelerating vaccine rollout and a subsequent travel rebound, pickingAirbnband Booking. He gave Airbnb a buy rating, with a target price of $210 and upside target price of $250, while Booking had a hold rating with an upside target of $2,700.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔还表示，在线旅游公司将成为疫苗加速推出和随后旅游反弹的最大受益者之一，选择AirbnBand Booking。他给予爱彼迎买入评级，目标价210美元，上行目标价250美元，Booking持有评级，上行目标价2700美元。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to airlines, one of the hardest-hit sectors throughout the pandemic, equity analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu saidSouthwest Airlineswas best placed to benefit from pent-up demand in the second half of the year. She said domestic travel restrictions were likely to be lifted before international restrictions, giving the airline an advantage, adding that it was set to “aggressively take market share” from its peers. She rated the stock a buy with an upside target of $80, compared with Friday’s closing price of $56.92.</p><p><blockquote>谈到航空业（整个疫情中受打击最严重的行业之一），股票分析师希拉·卡亚奥格鲁(Sheila Kahyaoglu)表示，西南航空最有可能从下半年被压抑的需求中受益。她表示，国内旅行限制可能会在国际限制之前取消，这将使该航空公司具有优势，并补充说，该公司将从同行那里“积极夺取市场份额”。她将该股评级为买入，上行目标为80美元，上周五收盘价为56.92美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the restaurants and food service sector, analysts Andy Barish and Alexander Slagle said the full-service segment was likely to benefit the most from the recovery, with pent-up demand for food outside of the home emerging as a powerful driver. They highlightedOutback SteakhouseownerBloomin’ Brandsand Chili’s ownerBrinkeras two buy-rated stocks to watch.</p><p><blockquote>在餐馆和食品服务行业，分析师安迪·巴里什（Andy Barish）和亚历山大·斯拉格（Alexander Slagle）表示，全方位服务领域可能从复苏中受益最多，被压抑的家庭以外食品需求成为强大的驱动力。他们重点介绍了Outback牛排餐厅老板Bloomin'Brands和Chili's老板Brinkeras两只值得关注的买入评级股票。</blockquote></p><p> In the food sector itself, analyst Rob Dickerson said&nbsp;Beyond Meat,J&amp;J Snack Foods&nbsp;and&nbsp;Lamb Westonhad the most potential upside due to its exposure to the food service channel, but he rated all three stocks ‘hold’.</p><p><blockquote>在食品行业本身，分析师Rob Dickerson表示，Beyond Meat、强生休闲食品和Lamb Weston由于涉足食品服务渠道而具有最大的潜在上涨空间，但他将这三只股票评级为“持有”。</blockquote></p><p> The report also selects a host of retail names, including home improvement storesLowe’sandHome Depot,and major retailers such asKohl’sandWalmartas foot traffic picks up and spending increases.</p><p><blockquote>该报告还选择了许多零售商，包括家装商店Lowe’s和Home Depot，以及主要零售商，如Kohl’s和Walmartas，客流量增加，支出增加。</blockquote></p><p> Value-orientated names in the specialty retail industry, such asDollar General,BurlingtonandFive Belowwere also mentioned, whileCaesars EntertainmentandSix Flagswere preferred in the gaming and leisure sector.</p><p><blockquote>还提到了专业零售行业中以价值为导向的公司，例如Dollar General、Burlington和Five Belows，而游戏和休闲行业中更受青睐的是凯撒娱乐和六旗。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/airbnb-lyft-and-other-stocks-set-to-benefit-from-a-consumer-spending-boom-51615224005?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎","LYFT":"Lyft, Inc.","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","LUV":"西南航空"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/airbnb-lyft-and-other-stocks-set-to-benefit-from-a-consumer-spending-boom-51615224005?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183729076","content_text":"The strongest consumer stock backdrop in decades may be around the corner and there are plenty of stocks well positioned to benefit, according to Jefferies analysts.\nA surge in personal income, alongside the reopening of the economy will “unleash substantial pent-up demand” in service sector consumption, said chief economist Aneta Markowska in a note on Sunday. She projected personal consumption expenditure (PCE)—a measure of consumer spending—to grow 7% this year and 4.1% in 2022. That assumes average PCE growth of more than 4% for eight consecutive quarters for the time since the 1990s.Stimulus and pent-up demandwould indicate strong spending at the high and low ends, she added.\nJefferies analysts covering a number of sectors used Markowska’s estimates to pick stocks most exposed to such a surge in consumption.\nEquity analyst Brent Thill said ride-sharing companyLyftwas one of his top reopening plays for 2021, as people return to bars, restaurants and other hospitality venues. He noted that Lyft shifted focus to its cost structure during the Covid-19 pandemic, which should “produce outsized leverage” as revenues rebound. He projected a return to pre-pandemic revenue levels by the fourth quarter, rating the stock a buy with a target price of $75 and an upside target of $85.\nThill also said online travel names would be among the biggest beneficiaries of the accelerating vaccine rollout and a subsequent travel rebound, pickingAirbnband Booking. He gave Airbnb a buy rating, with a target price of $210 and upside target price of $250, while Booking had a hold rating with an upside target of $2,700.\nWhen it comes to airlines, one of the hardest-hit sectors throughout the pandemic, equity analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu saidSouthwest Airlineswas best placed to benefit from pent-up demand in the second half of the year. She said domestic travel restrictions were likely to be lifted before international restrictions, giving the airline an advantage, adding that it was set to “aggressively take market share” from its peers. She rated the stock a buy with an upside target of $80, compared with Friday’s closing price of $56.92.\nIn the restaurants and food service sector, analysts Andy Barish and Alexander Slagle said the full-service segment was likely to benefit the most from the recovery, with pent-up demand for food outside of the home emerging as a powerful driver. They highlightedOutback SteakhouseownerBloomin’ Brandsand Chili’s ownerBrinkeras two buy-rated stocks to watch.\nIn the food sector itself, analyst Rob Dickerson said Beyond Meat,J&J Snack Foods and Lamb Westonhad the most potential upside due to its exposure to the food service channel, but he rated all three stocks ‘hold’.\nThe report also selects a host of retail names, including home improvement storesLowe’sandHome Depot,and major retailers such asKohl’sandWalmartas foot traffic picks up and spending increases.\nValue-orientated names in the specialty retail industry, such asDollar General,BurlingtonandFive Belowwere also mentioned, whileCaesars EntertainmentandSix Flagswere preferred in the gaming and leisure sector.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LYFT":0.9,"BYND":0.9,"ABNB":0.9,"LUV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329103377,"gmtCreate":1615213533999,"gmtModify":1703485756088,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329103377","repostId":"1177211195","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177211195","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615213425,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177211195?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 22:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177211195","media":"CNN Business","summary":"London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's","content":"<p><b>London (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>Apple&nbsp;(AAPL)&nbsp;shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker&nbsp;Nvidia&nbsp;(NVDA)&nbsp;has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.</p><p><blockquote><b>伦敦（CNN商业）——</b>苹果(AAPL)股价较1月份高点下跌超过15%。亚马逊股价较2月初的近期峰值下跌11%。芯片制造商英伟达(NVDA)的股价自上个月中旬以来已暴跌近19%。</blockquote></p><p>What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent&nbsp;sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>正在发生的事情：科技公司受到最近市场抛售的打击。该行业的许多股票已进入回调，较近期峰值下跌至少10%。</blockquote></p><p>The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数可能也不甘落后。该指数周五收盘较2月12日创下的历史新高低8%以上。期货指向周一另一个艰难的交易时段。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc50317ec0fe580acd1407307915d8fa\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>分解一下：投资者越来越担心，随着人们涌向餐馆和预订假期，今年晚些时候许多大型经济体的重新开放将导致价格飙升。这可能会给美联储等央行带来压力，要求其比预期更早加息。</blockquote></p><p>Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.</p><p><blockquote>最低利率对快速增长的科技公司来说是一个福音。它们帮助将政府债券的收益率保持在极低的水平，提高了人们对风险较高的投资的兴趣，例如提供更好回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p>But now, bond yields are rising on&nbsp;inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，由于通胀担忧，债券收益率正在上升。这可能会让美国国债等资产开始显得更具吸引力，引发过去11个月如此受欢迎的科技股资金外流。</blockquote></p><p>Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.</p><p><blockquote>荷宝(Robeco)投资组合经理耶鲁安·布洛克兰(Jeroen Blokland)认为，随着对经济增长的预期不断改善，受益于健康经济的银行业等行业的所谓“价值”股票可能会开始受到重新审视。</blockquote></p><p>\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果你相信整个重新开放和对GDP增长的估计……这意味着增长不那么稀缺，”他告诉我。“[那么]价值板块至少有可能迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p>See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.</p><p><blockquote>请参阅此处：追踪美国顶级银行的KBW银行指数今年上涨了20%以上。与此同时，纳斯达克几乎抹去了2021年的所有涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师认为下跌是健康的，许多科技公司的股价上涨太多、太快。</blockquote></p><p>Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.</p><p><blockquote>持续抛售可能取决于未来几天我们从央行行长那里听到的消息。本周晚些时候召开会议的欧洲央行已经明确表示，如果认为债券收益率快速上升将导致金融状况收紧，将采取一些行动。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔没有那么明确。</blockquote></p><p>Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.</p><p><blockquote>布洛克兰认为，如果本周10年期美国国债收益率大幅走高，鲍威尔可能别无选择，只能强烈断言美联储将采取必要行动，确保经济复苏不受市场动荡的影响。</blockquote></p><p>\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们再有像上周那样的一周，[他]就必须做点什么，”布洛克兰说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-08 22:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>London (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>Apple&nbsp;(AAPL)&nbsp;shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker&nbsp;Nvidia&nbsp;(NVDA)&nbsp;has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.</p><p><blockquote><b>伦敦（CNN商业）——</b>苹果(AAPL)股价较1月份高点下跌超过15%。亚马逊股价较2月初的近期峰值下跌11%。芯片制造商英伟达(NVDA)的股价自上个月中旬以来已暴跌近19%。</blockquote></p><p>What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent&nbsp;sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>正在发生的事情：科技公司受到最近市场抛售的打击。该行业的许多股票已进入回调，较近期峰值下跌至少10%。</blockquote></p><p>The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数可能也不甘落后。该指数周五收盘较2月12日创下的历史新高低8%以上。期货指向周一另一个艰难的交易时段。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc50317ec0fe580acd1407307915d8fa\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>分解一下：投资者越来越担心，随着人们涌向餐馆和预订假期，今年晚些时候许多大型经济体的重新开放将导致价格飙升。这可能会给美联储等央行带来压力，要求其比预期更早加息。</blockquote></p><p>Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.</p><p><blockquote>最低利率对快速增长的科技公司来说是一个福音。它们帮助将政府债券的收益率保持在极低的水平，提高了人们对风险较高的投资的兴趣，例如提供更好回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p>But now, bond yields are rising on&nbsp;inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，由于通胀担忧，债券收益率正在上升。这可能会让美国国债等资产开始显得更具吸引力，引发过去11个月如此受欢迎的科技股资金外流。</blockquote></p><p>Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.</p><p><blockquote>荷宝(Robeco)投资组合经理耶鲁安·布洛克兰(Jeroen Blokland)认为，随着对经济增长的预期不断改善，受益于健康经济的银行业等行业的所谓“价值”股票可能会开始受到重新审视。</blockquote></p><p>\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果你相信整个重新开放和对GDP增长的估计……这意味着增长不那么稀缺，”他告诉我。“[那么]价值板块至少有可能迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p>See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.</p><p><blockquote>请参阅此处：追踪美国顶级银行的KBW银行指数今年上涨了20%以上。与此同时，纳斯达克几乎抹去了2021年的所有涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师认为下跌是健康的，许多科技公司的股价上涨太多、太快。</blockquote></p><p>Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.</p><p><blockquote>持续抛售可能取决于未来几天我们从央行行长那里听到的消息。本周晚些时候召开会议的欧洲央行已经明确表示，如果认为债券收益率快速上升将导致金融状况收紧，将采取一些行动。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔没有那么明确。</blockquote></p><p>Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.</p><p><blockquote>布洛克兰认为，如果本周10年期美国国债收益率大幅走高，鲍威尔可能别无选择，只能强烈断言美联储将采取必要行动，确保经济复苏不受市场动荡的影响。</blockquote></p><p>\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们再有像上周那样的一周，[他]就必须做点什么，”布洛克兰说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","MSFT":"微软","NFLX":"奈飞","FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊","NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果","GOOG":"谷歌",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177211195","content_text":"London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.But now, bond yields are rising on inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"FB":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"NFLX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":350410890,"gmtCreate":1616250184310,"gmtModify":1634526581692,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350410890","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117450855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616166767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117450855?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321708638,"gmtCreate":1615467736224,"gmtModify":1703489451350,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321708638","repostId":"1199156489","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199156489","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615452861,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199156489?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 16:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199156489","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"From 02:00 U.S. East time March 14(this Sunday),the North America region entered daylight saving tim","content":"<p>From&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;March&nbsp;14(this&nbsp;Sunday),the&nbsp;North America&nbsp;region&nbsp;entered&nbsp;daylight saving&nbsp;time,until&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;ends&nbsp;on&nbsp;November&nbsp;7,2021.</p><p><blockquote>从美国东部时间3月14日（本周日）02：00开始，北美地区进入夏令时，直到美国东部时间2021年11月7日02：00结束。</blockquote></p><p>So,starting&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday,March&nbsp;14,the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;market&nbsp;will&nbsp;open&nbsp;and&nbsp;close&nbsp;one&nbsp;hour&nbsp;ahead&nbsp;of&nbsp;schedule&nbsp;during&nbsp;north&nbsp;american&nbsp;daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S.&nbsp;trading&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;changed&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30&nbsp;beijing&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;a.m.the&nbsp;next&nbsp;day,pre-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;16:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30,after-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;8:00.</p><p><blockquote>于是，从3月14日周一开始，美国市场将在北美夏令时期间提前一小时开盘和收盘，即美国交易时间改为北京时间21:30至次日凌晨04:00，交易前时间为16:00至21:30，交易后时间为04:00至8:00。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is daylight saving time?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是夏令时？</b></blockquote></p><p>The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.</p><p><blockquote>夏令时是在夏季将时钟拨快一小时的做法，这样白天会持续更长时间到晚上。北美和欧洲的大部分地区遵循这一习俗，而其他地方的大多数国家则不这样做。</blockquote></p><p>Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>夏威夷、美属萨摩亚、关岛、波多黎各、美属维尔京群岛和亚利桑那州大部分地区不实行夏令时。坚持现状是义不容辞的责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Daylight Saving Time<blockquote>美国夏令时</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-11 16:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>From&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;March&nbsp;14(this&nbsp;Sunday),the&nbsp;North America&nbsp;region&nbsp;entered&nbsp;daylight saving&nbsp;time,until&nbsp;02:00&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;East&nbsp;time&nbsp;ends&nbsp;on&nbsp;November&nbsp;7,2021.</p><p><blockquote>从美国东部时间3月14日（本周日）02：00开始，北美地区进入夏令时，直到美国东部时间2021年11月7日02：00结束。</blockquote></p><p>So,starting&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday,March&nbsp;14,the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;market&nbsp;will&nbsp;open&nbsp;and&nbsp;close&nbsp;one&nbsp;hour&nbsp;ahead&nbsp;of&nbsp;schedule&nbsp;during&nbsp;north&nbsp;american&nbsp;daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S.&nbsp;trading&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;changed&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30&nbsp;beijing&nbsp;time&nbsp;to&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;a.m.the&nbsp;next&nbsp;day,pre-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;16:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;21:30,after-trade&nbsp;time&nbsp;will&nbsp;be&nbsp;04:00&nbsp;to&nbsp;8:00.</p><p><blockquote>于是，从3月14日周一开始，美国市场将在北美夏令时期间提前一小时开盘和收盘，即美国交易时间改为北京时间21:30至次日凌晨04:00，交易前时间为16:00至21:30，交易后时间为04:00至8:00。</blockquote></p><p><b>What is daylight saving time?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么是夏令时？</b></blockquote></p><p>The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.</p><p><blockquote>夏令时是在夏季将时钟拨快一小时的做法，这样白天会持续更长时间到晚上。北美和欧洲的大部分地区遵循这一习俗，而其他地方的大多数国家则不这样做。</blockquote></p><p>Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>夏威夷、美属萨摩亚、关岛、波多黎各、美属维尔京群岛和亚利桑那州大部分地区不实行夏令时。坚持现状是义不容辞的责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199156489","content_text":"From 02:00 U.S. East time March 14(this Sunday),the North America region entered daylight saving time,until 02:00 U.S. East time ends on November 7,2021.So,starting on Monday,March 14,the U.S. market will open and close one hour ahead of schedule during north american daylight saving time,i.e.,U.S. trading time will be changed to 21:30 beijing time to 04:00 a.m.the next day,pre-trade time will be 16:00 to 21:30,after-trade time will be 04:00 to 8:00.What is daylight saving time?The DST is the practice of moving clocks forward by one hour during summer months so that daylight lasts longer into evening. Most of North America and Europe follows the custom, while the majority of countries elsewhere do not.Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and most of Arizona don’t observe daylight saving time. It’s incumbent to stick with the status quo.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329103377,"gmtCreate":1615213533999,"gmtModify":1703485756088,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329103377","repostId":"1177211195","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177211195","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615213425,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177211195?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 22:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177211195","media":"CNN Business","summary":"London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's","content":"<p><b>London (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>Apple&nbsp;(AAPL)&nbsp;shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker&nbsp;Nvidia&nbsp;(NVDA)&nbsp;has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.</p><p><blockquote><b>伦敦（CNN商业）——</b>苹果(AAPL)股价较1月份高点下跌超过15%。亚马逊股价较2月初的近期峰值下跌11%。芯片制造商英伟达(NVDA)的股价自上个月中旬以来已暴跌近19%。</blockquote></p><p>What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent&nbsp;sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>正在发生的事情：科技公司受到最近市场抛售的打击。该行业的许多股票已进入回调，较近期峰值下跌至少10%。</blockquote></p><p>The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数可能也不甘落后。该指数周五收盘较2月12日创下的历史新高低8%以上。期货指向周一另一个艰难的交易时段。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc50317ec0fe580acd1407307915d8fa\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>分解一下：投资者越来越担心，随着人们涌向餐馆和预订假期，今年晚些时候许多大型经济体的重新开放将导致价格飙升。这可能会给美联储等央行带来压力，要求其比预期更早加息。</blockquote></p><p>Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.</p><p><blockquote>最低利率对快速增长的科技公司来说是一个福音。它们帮助将政府债券的收益率保持在极低的水平，提高了人们对风险较高的投资的兴趣，例如提供更好回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p>But now, bond yields are rising on&nbsp;inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，由于通胀担忧，债券收益率正在上升。这可能会让美国国债等资产开始显得更具吸引力，引发过去11个月如此受欢迎的科技股资金外流。</blockquote></p><p>Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.</p><p><blockquote>荷宝(Robeco)投资组合经理耶鲁安·布洛克兰(Jeroen Blokland)认为，随着对经济增长的预期不断改善，受益于健康经济的银行业等行业的所谓“价值”股票可能会开始受到重新审视。</blockquote></p><p>\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果你相信整个重新开放和对GDP增长的估计……这意味着增长不那么稀缺，”他告诉我。“[那么]价值板块至少有可能迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p>See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.</p><p><blockquote>请参阅此处：追踪美国顶级银行的KBW银行指数今年上涨了20%以上。与此同时，纳斯达克几乎抹去了2021年的所有涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师认为下跌是健康的，许多科技公司的股价上涨太多、太快。</blockquote></p><p>Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.</p><p><blockquote>持续抛售可能取决于未来几天我们从央行行长那里听到的消息。本周晚些时候召开会议的欧洲央行已经明确表示，如果认为债券收益率快速上升将导致金融状况收紧，将采取一些行动。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔没有那么明确。</blockquote></p><p>Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.</p><p><blockquote>布洛克兰认为，如果本周10年期美国国债收益率大幅走高，鲍威尔可能别无选择，只能强烈断言美联储将采取必要行动，确保经济复苏不受市场动荡的影响。</blockquote></p><p>\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们再有像上周那样的一周，[他]就必须做点什么，”布洛克兰说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-08 22:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>London (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>Apple&nbsp;(AAPL)&nbsp;shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker&nbsp;Nvidia&nbsp;(NVDA)&nbsp;has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.</p><p><blockquote><b>伦敦（CNN商业）——</b>苹果(AAPL)股价较1月份高点下跌超过15%。亚马逊股价较2月初的近期峰值下跌11%。芯片制造商英伟达(NVDA)的股价自上个月中旬以来已暴跌近19%。</blockquote></p><p>What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent&nbsp;sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>正在发生的事情：科技公司受到最近市场抛售的打击。该行业的许多股票已进入回调，较近期峰值下跌至少10%。</blockquote></p><p>The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数可能也不甘落后。该指数周五收盘较2月12日创下的历史新高低8%以上。期货指向周一另一个艰难的交易时段。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc50317ec0fe580acd1407307915d8fa\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>分解一下：投资者越来越担心，随着人们涌向餐馆和预订假期，今年晚些时候许多大型经济体的重新开放将导致价格飙升。这可能会给美联储等央行带来压力，要求其比预期更早加息。</blockquote></p><p>Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.</p><p><blockquote>最低利率对快速增长的科技公司来说是一个福音。它们帮助将政府债券的收益率保持在极低的水平，提高了人们对风险较高的投资的兴趣，例如提供更好回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p>But now, bond yields are rising on&nbsp;inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，由于通胀担忧，债券收益率正在上升。这可能会让美国国债等资产开始显得更具吸引力，引发过去11个月如此受欢迎的科技股资金外流。</blockquote></p><p>Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.</p><p><blockquote>荷宝(Robeco)投资组合经理耶鲁安·布洛克兰(Jeroen Blokland)认为，随着对经济增长的预期不断改善，受益于健康经济的银行业等行业的所谓“价值”股票可能会开始受到重新审视。</blockquote></p><p>\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果你相信整个重新开放和对GDP增长的估计……这意味着增长不那么稀缺，”他告诉我。“[那么]价值板块至少有可能迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p>See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.</p><p><blockquote>请参阅此处：追踪美国顶级银行的KBW银行指数今年上涨了20%以上。与此同时，纳斯达克几乎抹去了2021年的所有涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师认为下跌是健康的，许多科技公司的股价上涨太多、太快。</blockquote></p><p>Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.</p><p><blockquote>持续抛售可能取决于未来几天我们从央行行长那里听到的消息。本周晚些时候召开会议的欧洲央行已经明确表示，如果认为债券收益率快速上升将导致金融状况收紧，将采取一些行动。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔没有那么明确。</blockquote></p><p>Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.</p><p><blockquote>布洛克兰认为，如果本周10年期美国国债收益率大幅走高，鲍威尔可能别无选择，只能强烈断言美联储将采取必要行动，确保经济复苏不受市场动荡的影响。</blockquote></p><p>\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们再有像上周那样的一周，[他]就必须做点什么，”布洛克兰说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","MSFT":"微软","NFLX":"奈飞","FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊","NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果","GOOG":"谷歌",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177211195","content_text":"London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.But now, bond yields are rising on inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"FB":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"NFLX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363793805,"gmtCreate":1614170577907,"gmtModify":1634550899257,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363793805","repostId":"1129467108","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129467108","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614164417,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129467108?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129467108","media":"Barrons","summary":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullie","content":"<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.</p><p><blockquote>别担心。要贪心。</blockquote></p><p>Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者的担忧正在加剧，股市也受到债券收益率上升的欺负，但J.P.摩根策略师告诉他们的客户，现在是拥抱股票的时候了。</blockquote></p><p>TheS&amp;P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数可能在3875点附近徘徊，但该行坚持2021年年底目标价4400点，区间为4200点至4600点。它的数字不仅仅是股市预期收益的一些衍生物。相反，它们反映了美国在Covid-19大流行后的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通衍生品策略师肖恩·奎格(Shawn Quigg)最近告诉客户，市场实现“这种收益迟早会到来，特别是考虑到未来的众多催化剂、它们对波动性的影响以及对投资者定位的影响。”</blockquote></p><p>As President Joe Biden’s administration&nbsp;champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move&nbsp;that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.</p><p><blockquote>随着乔·拜登总统的政府支持1.9万亿美元的刺激计划，以及Covid-19感染和住院人数的下降，奎格预计股市将飙升。他的观点与近期交易有些出入。随着10年期国债收益率升至1.38%左右，股市下跌，此举加剧了通胀担忧和对股市暴跌的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>奎格喜欢利用恐惧和悬而未决的刺激计划，拜登已经开始为该计划辩护，因为担心该计划规模过大。在各种采访中，总统挑战批评者告诉他，在这个国家如此多的人遭受苦难的时候，应该削减什么。拜登政府现在警告说，最大的风险不是大规模的刺激计划，而是规模太小，因此无法有意义地刺激经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls&nbsp;with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.</p><p><blockquote>为了让股市飙升，Quigg建议客户考虑出售SPDR标普500 ETF（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）5月353美元的看跌期权之一，并购买5月15日450美元的看涨期权期权。当ETF价格为392.39美元时，杠杆风险逆转策略——即卖出一份看跌期权并买入更多执行价格更高但到期日相同的评级——可以免费完成。换句话说，卖出看跌期权收到的钱足以买入15个看涨的评级。</blockquote></p><p>The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.</p><p><blockquote>该交易表明，该ETF（最近交易价格约为387美元）将在5月21日5月期权到期时达到450美元。看涨期权售价460美元，价值10美元。</blockquote></p><p>Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.</p><p><blockquote>比方说，如果ETF下跌，因为当前的担忧将市场推至353美元的执行价格以下，投资者将有义务以较低的价格买入，或者回补或调整看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.</p><p><blockquote>奎格的交易理念有很多值得钦佩的地方。</blockquote></p><p>For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.</p><p><blockquote>其一，上周晚些时候推荐该交易时成本为零。是的，自2月18日的报告发布以来，价格已经发生了变化，但投资者可以重新调整执行价格以创建类似的定价。市场会发生变化，这就是为什么列出了这么多不同的执行价格。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&amp;P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果摩根大通对经济复苏的基本观点被证明是正确的，那么拥有一批不需要花费任何成本的上行评级可能会非常有利可图。如果市场屈服于当前价格疲软的担忧，以较低的价格持有标普500股票也并不可怕。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 19:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.</p><p><blockquote>别担心。要贪心。</blockquote></p><p>Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者的担忧正在加剧，股市也受到债券收益率上升的欺负，但J.P.摩根策略师告诉他们的客户，现在是拥抱股票的时候了。</blockquote></p><p>TheS&amp;P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数可能在3875点附近徘徊，但该行坚持2021年年底目标价4400点，区间为4200点至4600点。它的数字不仅仅是股市预期收益的一些衍生物。相反，它们反映了美国在Covid-19大流行后的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通衍生品策略师肖恩·奎格(Shawn Quigg)最近告诉客户，市场实现“这种收益迟早会到来，特别是考虑到未来的众多催化剂、它们对波动性的影响以及对投资者定位的影响。”</blockquote></p><p>As President Joe Biden’s administration&nbsp;champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move&nbsp;that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.</p><p><blockquote>随着乔·拜登总统的政府支持1.9万亿美元的刺激计划，以及Covid-19感染和住院人数的下降，奎格预计股市将飙升。他的观点与近期交易有些出入。随着10年期国债收益率升至1.38%左右，股市下跌，此举加剧了通胀担忧和对股市暴跌的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>奎格喜欢利用恐惧和悬而未决的刺激计划，拜登已经开始为该计划辩护，因为担心该计划规模过大。在各种采访中，总统挑战批评者告诉他，在这个国家如此多的人遭受苦难的时候，应该削减什么。拜登政府现在警告说，最大的风险不是大规模的刺激计划，而是规模太小，因此无法有意义地刺激经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls&nbsp;with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.</p><p><blockquote>为了让股市飙升，Quigg建议客户考虑出售SPDR标普500 ETF（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）5月353美元的看跌期权之一，并购买5月15日450美元的看涨期权期权。当ETF价格为392.39美元时，杠杆风险逆转策略——即卖出一份看跌期权并买入更多执行价格更高但到期日相同的评级——可以免费完成。换句话说，卖出看跌期权收到的钱足以买入15个看涨的评级。</blockquote></p><p>The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.</p><p><blockquote>该交易表明，该ETF（最近交易价格约为387美元）将在5月21日5月期权到期时达到450美元。看涨期权售价460美元，价值10美元。</blockquote></p><p>Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.</p><p><blockquote>比方说，如果ETF下跌，因为当前的担忧将市场推至353美元的执行价格以下，投资者将有义务以较低的价格买入，或者回补或调整看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.</p><p><blockquote>奎格的交易理念有很多值得钦佩的地方。</blockquote></p><p>For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.</p><p><blockquote>其一，上周晚些时候推荐该交易时成本为零。是的，自2月18日的报告发布以来，价格已经发生了变化，但投资者可以重新调整执行价格以创建类似的定价。市场会发生变化，这就是为什么列出了这么多不同的执行价格。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&amp;P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果摩根大通对经济复苏的基本观点被证明是正确的，那么拥有一批不需要花费任何成本的上行评级可能会非常有利可图。如果市场屈服于当前价格疲软的担忧，以较低的价格持有标普500股票也并不可怕。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129467108","content_text":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.TheS&P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”As President Joe Biden’s administration champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323743359,"gmtCreate":1615380721571,"gmtModify":1703488145814,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323743359","repostId":"1186280918","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323982487,"gmtCreate":1615299181049,"gmtModify":1703486955759,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323982487","repostId":"1158287133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158287133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615298882,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158287133?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher<blockquote>道指32,000？为什么指数应该高出100万点以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158287133","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching","content":"<p>Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching stratospheric levels</p><p><blockquote>基准指数存在固有的怪癖，例如不计算股息，这使其无法达到极高的水平</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average should be trading not near 32,000 but actually above 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数的交易价格不应该接近32,000点，而实际上应该高于120万点。</blockquote></p><p> I am not making some wildly bullish prediction about the stock market in coming years. I am instead reporting where the Dow&nbsp;would be trading now if it had incorporated dividends that component companies have paid over the years, as well as other corporate actions that affect stock prices, such as stock dividends and rights issues.</p><p><blockquote>我不会对未来几年的股市做出过于乐观的预测。相反，我报告的是，如果道琼斯指数纳入了成分股公司多年来支付的股息，以及其他影响股价的公司行为，例如股票股息和配股，它现在的交易地点。</blockquote></p><p> New&nbsp;research from the National Bureau of Economic Research&nbsp;calculates that had all such events been taken into account since Oct. 31, 1928, the Dow would have closed at 1,113,047 on Dec, 31, 2019. The Dow’s gain over the subsequent 15 months would propel its “true” value currently to more than 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家经济研究局的最新研究计算出，如果考虑到1928年10月31日以来的所有此类事件，道琼斯指数将于2019年12月31日收于1,113,047点。道琼斯指数在随后15个月的上涨将推动其“真实”价值目前超过120万点。</blockquote></p><p> The study’s authors are John Shoven and Clemens Sialm, finance professors at Stanford University and the University of Texas at Austin, respectively, along with Jacky Lin and Genevieve Selden. The researchers tell a sordid tale of the Dow’s construction over the decades — a story that should be filed, along with sausage and legislation, in the category of “if you like it, don’t look too closely to how it is made.”</p><p><blockquote>该研究的作者分别是斯坦福大学和德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的金融学教授John Shoven和Clemens Sialm，以及Jacky Lin和Genevieve Selden。研究人员讲述了一个关于道琼斯指数几十年来建造的肮脏故事——这个故事应该与香肠和立法一起被归档在“如果你喜欢它，就不要太仔细地看它是如何制造的”类别中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price-weighted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格加权</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the DJIA’s peculiarities is that it is a price-weighted index, which means that the contribution a stock makes to its performance is a function of how high- or low-priced it is. That makes no theoretical sense.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯的特点之一是它是一个价格加权指数，这意味着股票对其业绩的贡献取决于其价格的高低。这在理论上没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the highest-priced stock currently in the DJIA, which is UnitedHealth Group&nbsp;with a recent price of about $350 per share. It has a 7.3% weighting in the index, compared to just a 1.0% weighting for Cisco Systems,the lowest-priced stock in the Dow at close to $48 per share. As a result, Cisco would need to perform more than seven times better than United Health in order to have the same impact on the Dow’s overall return.</p><p><blockquote>以目前道琼斯上价格最高的股票为例，它是联合健康集团，最近的价格约为每股350美元。它在该指数中的权重为7.3%，而思科系统公司的权重仅为1.0%，思科系统公司是道琼斯指数中价格最低的股票，接近每股48美元。因此，思科的表现需要比联合健康好七倍以上，才能对道琼斯指数的整体回报产生同样的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Split adjustments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>拆分调整</b></blockquote></p><p> One consequence of this price-weighting is that a stock split will have a big impact on a stock’s weight in the Dow, even though the split is an accounting entry with no real-world significance. Consider Apple,which last summer split its shares four-for-one. As a result of that split, the stock’s weight in the Dow instantly fell by three-quarters. This in fact ended up helping the Dow, since Apple stock has struggled since that split and is&nbsp;now in danger of entering into a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这种价格权重的一个后果是，股票分割将对股票在道琼斯指数中的权重产生重大影响，即使分割是一个没有现实意义的会计分录。以苹果为例，该公司去年夏天将其股票进行了四比一的分割。由于这次分拆，该股在道琼斯指数中的权重立即下跌了四分之三。事实上，这最终帮助了道琼斯指数，因为苹果股票自分拆以来一直在苦苦挣扎，现在有进入熊市的危险。</blockquote></p><p> Another of the Dow’s head-scratching idiosyncrasies is that in some early years it failed to adjust for stock splits for up to several months at a time. Yet another is that, in a number of those early years, split-adjustment factors were rounded to just one decimal point. According to the authors of this new study, this rounding led to discrepancies of as much as 0.4% on the occasion of each split — equivalent to more than 125 Dow points at today’s index level.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数另一个令人挠头的特点是，在最初的几年里，它一次长达几个月的时间里未能针对股票分割进行调整。另一个原因是，在早期的许多年里，分割调整系数被四舍五入到小数点后一位。根据这项新研究的作者，这种四舍五入导致每次分割时的差异高达0.4%——相当于今天的指数水平超过125点。</blockquote></p><p> Another peculiarity: The Dow treated stock dividends differently than stock splits, even though the two are functionally equivalent. According to the research’s authors, the Dow’s component stocks declared 105 stock dividends between them from 1928 through 2019, only 24 of which were reflected in the calculation of the Dow’s value.</p><p><blockquote>另一个特点是：道琼斯指数对待股票股息和股票分割的方式不同，尽管两者在功能上是等效的。该研究的作者表示，从1928年到2019年，道指成分股宣布了105次股票股息，其中只有24次反映在道指价值的计算中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividends</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股息</b></blockquote></p><p> By the far the most consequential methodological decision that the Dow made over the years has been to omit dividends, Professor Sialm told me in an interview. Nearly half of the Dow’s long-term total return since 1928 has come from dividends.</p><p><blockquote>西亚姆教授在接受采访时告诉我，迄今为止，道琼斯指数多年来做出的最重要的方法论决定是省略股息。自1928年以来，道指近一半的长期总回报来自股息。</blockquote></p><p> You might think that this heavy reliance on dividends is unique to the Dow, which is constructed from the bluest of blue-chip stocks that typically offer higher dividend yields. But what the researchers found for the Dow is also true for the U.S. stock market as a whole. Since 1871, according to data from Yale University’s Robert Shiller, the U.S. stock market’s price-only annualized return has been 4.6%, almost precisely half of the market’s 9.3% annualized return on a total-return basis. (See the chart below.)</p><p><blockquote>您可能认为这种对股息的严重依赖是道琼斯指数所独有的，道琼斯指数是由通常提供较高股息收益率的最蓝的蓝筹股构成的。但研究人员对道琼斯指数的发现也适用于整个美国股市。自1871年以来，根据耶鲁大学罗伯特·希勒的数据，美国股市仅按价格计算的年化回报率为4.6%，几乎正好是市场按总回报率计算的9.3%年化回报率的一半。（见下图。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e99e55881bbacc9fb4c6753120044e2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Notice what this means for the near-term, given that the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,-0.54%current yield is just 1.5%. Assuming the future is like the past, and depending on the growth rate of dividends, this low yield points to an expected total return for the stock market from current levels of not much more than 3% annualized. That’s less than a percentage point greater than the&nbsp;10-year breakeven inflation rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意这对短期意味着什么，因为标普500的SPX,-0.54%目前的收益率仅为1.5%。假设未来与过去一样，并且取决于股息的增长率，这种低收益率表明股市的预期总回报率不会超过当前年化3%。这比10年期盈亏平衡通胀率高出不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could the future be different than the past?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来会与过去不同吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The bulls have a solid theoretical response to this otherwise dismal projection. According to a longstanding theory in finance, tracing to work in the 1960s by Franco Modigliani, who in 1985 would win the Nobel Prize in Economics, companies that pay out less in dividends should grow faster. That’s because they can reinvest in their own growth what they otherwise would have paid out to shareholders. A lower dividend yield therefore should translate into an accelerated earnings growth rate and a higher stock price.</p><p><blockquote>多头对这一令人沮丧的预测有坚实的理论回应。根据金融界的一个长期理论，可以追溯到1985年获得诺贝尔经济学奖的佛朗哥·莫迪里阿尼(Franco Modigliani)在20世纪60年代的工作，支付股息较少的公司应该增长更快。这是因为他们可以将原本要支付给股东的资金再投资于自己的增长。因此，较低的股息收益率应该会转化为更快的盈利增长率和更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> If so, stocks’ total return should not be affected by a lower dividend yield, since price appreciation would compensate by making a correspondingly greater contribution.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，股票的总回报不应受到较低股息收益率的影响，因为价格升值将通过做出相应更大的贡献来进行补偿。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, Modigliani advanced his theory when share repurchases did not play a big role in the stock market, and his theory may need to be modified to account for them. If companies take the money they save from paying out fewer dividends and spend it on repurchases instead of investing it in their future growth, then a lower dividend yield may not translate into accelerated subsequent earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，莫迪里阿尼在股票回购在股市中没有发挥很大作用时提出了他的理论，他的理论可能需要修改以解释它们。如果公司将减少股息节省下来的钱用于回购，而不是投资于未来的增长，那么较低的股息收益率可能不会转化为后续盈利增长的加速。</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not it does depends crucially on whether companies repurchase shares when they are undervalued. Their track record here over the past two decades is not encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>是否如此，关键取决于公司是否在股票被低估时回购股票。他们在过去二十年里在这里的记录并不令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> This means we can’t automatically assume that today’s low dividend yield will mean that, in coming years, price appreciation will constitute a greater proportion of stocks’ total return. In an email, Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, pointed out that dividends over the past two decades have represented just as big a proportion of stocks’ total return as in prior decades when dividend yields were much higher. For the 20 years through 2020, Arnott wrote, “the real return on stocks (S&amp;P 500) was 3.8%, of which dividend yield contributed exactly half.”</p><p><blockquote>这意味着我们不能自动假设当今的低股息收益率意味着未来几年价格升值将在股票总回报中占更大比例。Research Affiliates创始人罗伯特·阿诺特(Robert Arnott)在一封电子邮件中指出，过去二十年股息在股票总回报中所占的比例与股息收益率高得多的前几十年一样大。阿诺特写道，截至2020年的20年里，“股票（标普500）的实际回报率为3.8%，其中股息收益率正好贡献了一半。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Sialm added, theory quickly gets complicated when trying to assess the interactions between dividends, price appreciation, and buybacks. There is no guarantee that price appreciation won’t make up for the market’s low current dividend yield. Nevertheless, he continued, it is likely that stock investors face an extended low-growth era.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，Sialm补充道，当试图评估股息、价格升值和回购之间的相互作用时，理论很快就会变得复杂。不能保证价格上涨不会弥补市场当前较低的股息收益率。尽管如此，他继续说道，股票投资者很可能面临一个长期的低增长时代。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher<blockquote>道指32,000？为什么指数应该高出100万点以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow 32,000? Why the index should be more than 1 million points higher<blockquote>道指32,000？为什么指数应该高出100万点以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-09 22:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching stratospheric levels</p><p><blockquote>基准指数存在固有的怪癖，例如不计算股息，这使其无法达到极高的水平</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average should be trading not near 32,000 but actually above 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数的交易价格不应该接近32,000点，而实际上应该高于120万点。</blockquote></p><p> I am not making some wildly bullish prediction about the stock market in coming years. I am instead reporting where the Dow&nbsp;would be trading now if it had incorporated dividends that component companies have paid over the years, as well as other corporate actions that affect stock prices, such as stock dividends and rights issues.</p><p><blockquote>我不会对未来几年的股市做出过于乐观的预测。相反，我报告的是，如果道琼斯指数纳入了成分股公司多年来支付的股息，以及其他影响股价的公司行为，例如股票股息和配股，它现在的交易地点。</blockquote></p><p> New&nbsp;research from the National Bureau of Economic Research&nbsp;calculates that had all such events been taken into account since Oct. 31, 1928, the Dow would have closed at 1,113,047 on Dec, 31, 2019. The Dow’s gain over the subsequent 15 months would propel its “true” value currently to more than 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家经济研究局的最新研究计算出，如果考虑到1928年10月31日以来的所有此类事件，道琼斯指数将于2019年12月31日收于1,113,047点。道琼斯指数在随后15个月的上涨将推动其“真实”价值目前超过120万点。</blockquote></p><p> The study’s authors are John Shoven and Clemens Sialm, finance professors at Stanford University and the University of Texas at Austin, respectively, along with Jacky Lin and Genevieve Selden. The researchers tell a sordid tale of the Dow’s construction over the decades — a story that should be filed, along with sausage and legislation, in the category of “if you like it, don’t look too closely to how it is made.”</p><p><blockquote>该研究的作者分别是斯坦福大学和德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的金融学教授John Shoven和Clemens Sialm，以及Jacky Lin和Genevieve Selden。研究人员讲述了一个关于道琼斯指数几十年来建造的肮脏故事——这个故事应该与香肠和立法一起被归档在“如果你喜欢它，就不要太仔细地看它是如何制造的”类别中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price-weighted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格加权</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the DJIA’s peculiarities is that it is a price-weighted index, which means that the contribution a stock makes to its performance is a function of how high- or low-priced it is. That makes no theoretical sense.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯的特点之一是它是一个价格加权指数，这意味着股票对其业绩的贡献取决于其价格的高低。这在理论上没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the highest-priced stock currently in the DJIA, which is UnitedHealth Group&nbsp;with a recent price of about $350 per share. It has a 7.3% weighting in the index, compared to just a 1.0% weighting for Cisco Systems,the lowest-priced stock in the Dow at close to $48 per share. As a result, Cisco would need to perform more than seven times better than United Health in order to have the same impact on the Dow’s overall return.</p><p><blockquote>以目前道琼斯上价格最高的股票为例，它是联合健康集团，最近的价格约为每股350美元。它在该指数中的权重为7.3%，而思科系统公司的权重仅为1.0%，思科系统公司是道琼斯指数中价格最低的股票，接近每股48美元。因此，思科的表现需要比联合健康好七倍以上，才能对道琼斯指数的整体回报产生同样的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Split adjustments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>拆分调整</b></blockquote></p><p> One consequence of this price-weighting is that a stock split will have a big impact on a stock’s weight in the Dow, even though the split is an accounting entry with no real-world significance. Consider Apple,which last summer split its shares four-for-one. As a result of that split, the stock’s weight in the Dow instantly fell by three-quarters. This in fact ended up helping the Dow, since Apple stock has struggled since that split and is&nbsp;now in danger of entering into a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这种价格权重的一个后果是，股票分割将对股票在道琼斯指数中的权重产生重大影响，即使分割是一个没有现实意义的会计分录。以苹果为例，该公司去年夏天将其股票进行了四比一的分割。由于这次分拆，该股在道琼斯指数中的权重立即下跌了四分之三。事实上，这最终帮助了道琼斯指数，因为苹果股票自分拆以来一直在苦苦挣扎，现在有进入熊市的危险。</blockquote></p><p> Another of the Dow’s head-scratching idiosyncrasies is that in some early years it failed to adjust for stock splits for up to several months at a time. Yet another is that, in a number of those early years, split-adjustment factors were rounded to just one decimal point. According to the authors of this new study, this rounding led to discrepancies of as much as 0.4% on the occasion of each split — equivalent to more than 125 Dow points at today’s index level.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数另一个令人挠头的特点是，在最初的几年里，它一次长达几个月的时间里未能针对股票分割进行调整。另一个原因是，在早期的许多年里，分割调整系数被四舍五入到小数点后一位。根据这项新研究的作者，这种四舍五入导致每次分割时的差异高达0.4%——相当于今天的指数水平超过125点。</blockquote></p><p> Another peculiarity: The Dow treated stock dividends differently than stock splits, even though the two are functionally equivalent. According to the research’s authors, the Dow’s component stocks declared 105 stock dividends between them from 1928 through 2019, only 24 of which were reflected in the calculation of the Dow’s value.</p><p><blockquote>另一个特点是：道琼斯指数对待股票股息和股票分割的方式不同，尽管两者在功能上是等效的。该研究的作者表示，从1928年到2019年，道指成分股宣布了105次股票股息，其中只有24次反映在道指价值的计算中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividends</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股息</b></blockquote></p><p> By the far the most consequential methodological decision that the Dow made over the years has been to omit dividends, Professor Sialm told me in an interview. Nearly half of the Dow’s long-term total return since 1928 has come from dividends.</p><p><blockquote>西亚姆教授在接受采访时告诉我，迄今为止，道琼斯指数多年来做出的最重要的方法论决定是省略股息。自1928年以来，道指近一半的长期总回报来自股息。</blockquote></p><p> You might think that this heavy reliance on dividends is unique to the Dow, which is constructed from the bluest of blue-chip stocks that typically offer higher dividend yields. But what the researchers found for the Dow is also true for the U.S. stock market as a whole. Since 1871, according to data from Yale University’s Robert Shiller, the U.S. stock market’s price-only annualized return has been 4.6%, almost precisely half of the market’s 9.3% annualized return on a total-return basis. (See the chart below.)</p><p><blockquote>您可能认为这种对股息的严重依赖是道琼斯指数所独有的，道琼斯指数是由通常提供较高股息收益率的最蓝的蓝筹股构成的。但研究人员对道琼斯指数的发现也适用于整个美国股市。自1871年以来，根据耶鲁大学罗伯特·希勒的数据，美国股市仅按价格计算的年化回报率为4.6%，几乎正好是市场按总回报率计算的9.3%年化回报率的一半。（见下图。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e99e55881bbacc9fb4c6753120044e2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Notice what this means for the near-term, given that the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,-0.54%current yield is just 1.5%. Assuming the future is like the past, and depending on the growth rate of dividends, this low yield points to an expected total return for the stock market from current levels of not much more than 3% annualized. That’s less than a percentage point greater than the&nbsp;10-year breakeven inflation rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意这对短期意味着什么，因为标普500的SPX,-0.54%目前的收益率仅为1.5%。假设未来与过去一样，并且取决于股息的增长率，这种低收益率表明股市的预期总回报率不会超过当前年化3%。这比10年期盈亏平衡通胀率高出不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could the future be different than the past?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来会与过去不同吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The bulls have a solid theoretical response to this otherwise dismal projection. According to a longstanding theory in finance, tracing to work in the 1960s by Franco Modigliani, who in 1985 would win the Nobel Prize in Economics, companies that pay out less in dividends should grow faster. That’s because they can reinvest in their own growth what they otherwise would have paid out to shareholders. A lower dividend yield therefore should translate into an accelerated earnings growth rate and a higher stock price.</p><p><blockquote>多头对这一令人沮丧的预测有坚实的理论回应。根据金融界的一个长期理论，可以追溯到1985年获得诺贝尔经济学奖的佛朗哥·莫迪里阿尼(Franco Modigliani)在20世纪60年代的工作，支付股息较少的公司应该增长更快。这是因为他们可以将原本要支付给股东的资金再投资于自己的增长。因此，较低的股息收益率应该会转化为更快的盈利增长率和更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> If so, stocks’ total return should not be affected by a lower dividend yield, since price appreciation would compensate by making a correspondingly greater contribution.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，股票的总回报不应受到较低股息收益率的影响，因为价格升值将通过做出相应更大的贡献来进行补偿。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, Modigliani advanced his theory when share repurchases did not play a big role in the stock market, and his theory may need to be modified to account for them. If companies take the money they save from paying out fewer dividends and spend it on repurchases instead of investing it in their future growth, then a lower dividend yield may not translate into accelerated subsequent earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，莫迪里阿尼在股票回购在股市中没有发挥很大作用时提出了他的理论，他的理论可能需要修改以解释它们。如果公司将减少股息节省下来的钱用于回购，而不是投资于未来的增长，那么较低的股息收益率可能不会转化为后续盈利增长的加速。</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not it does depends crucially on whether companies repurchase shares when they are undervalued. Their track record here over the past two decades is not encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>是否如此，关键取决于公司是否在股票被低估时回购股票。他们在过去二十年里在这里的记录并不令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> This means we can’t automatically assume that today’s low dividend yield will mean that, in coming years, price appreciation will constitute a greater proportion of stocks’ total return. In an email, Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, pointed out that dividends over the past two decades have represented just as big a proportion of stocks’ total return as in prior decades when dividend yields were much higher. For the 20 years through 2020, Arnott wrote, “the real return on stocks (S&amp;P 500) was 3.8%, of which dividend yield contributed exactly half.”</p><p><blockquote>这意味着我们不能自动假设当今的低股息收益率意味着未来几年价格升值将在股票总回报中占更大比例。Research Affiliates创始人罗伯特·阿诺特(Robert Arnott)在一封电子邮件中指出，过去二十年股息在股票总回报中所占的比例与股息收益率高得多的前几十年一样大。阿诺特写道，截至2020年的20年里，“股票（标普500）的实际回报率为3.8%，其中股息收益率正好贡献了一半。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Sialm added, theory quickly gets complicated when trying to assess the interactions between dividends, price appreciation, and buybacks. There is no guarantee that price appreciation won’t make up for the market’s low current dividend yield. Nevertheless, he continued, it is likely that stock investors face an extended low-growth era.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，Sialm补充道，当试图评估股息、价格升值和回购之间的相互作用时，理论很快就会变得复杂。不能保证价格上涨不会弥补市场当前较低的股息收益率。尽管如此，他继续说道，股票投资者很可能面临一个长期的低增长时代。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-32-000-why-the-index-should-be-more-than-1-million-points-higher-11615248554?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-32-000-why-the-index-should-be-more-than-1-million-points-higher-11615248554?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1158287133","content_text":"Benchmark index has inherent quirks, such as not counting dividends, that have kept it from reaching stratospheric levels\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average should be trading not near 32,000 but actually above 1.2 million.\nI am not making some wildly bullish prediction about the stock market in coming years. I am instead reporting where the Dow would be trading now if it had incorporated dividends that component companies have paid over the years, as well as other corporate actions that affect stock prices, such as stock dividends and rights issues.\nNew research from the National Bureau of Economic Research calculates that had all such events been taken into account since Oct. 31, 1928, the Dow would have closed at 1,113,047 on Dec, 31, 2019. The Dow’s gain over the subsequent 15 months would propel its “true” value currently to more than 1.2 million.\nThe study’s authors are John Shoven and Clemens Sialm, finance professors at Stanford University and the University of Texas at Austin, respectively, along with Jacky Lin and Genevieve Selden. The researchers tell a sordid tale of the Dow’s construction over the decades — a story that should be filed, along with sausage and legislation, in the category of “if you like it, don’t look too closely to how it is made.”\nPrice-weighted\nOne of the DJIA’s peculiarities is that it is a price-weighted index, which means that the contribution a stock makes to its performance is a function of how high- or low-priced it is. That makes no theoretical sense.\nConsider the highest-priced stock currently in the DJIA, which is UnitedHealth Group with a recent price of about $350 per share. It has a 7.3% weighting in the index, compared to just a 1.0% weighting for Cisco Systems,the lowest-priced stock in the Dow at close to $48 per share. As a result, Cisco would need to perform more than seven times better than United Health in order to have the same impact on the Dow’s overall return.\nSplit adjustments\nOne consequence of this price-weighting is that a stock split will have a big impact on a stock’s weight in the Dow, even though the split is an accounting entry with no real-world significance. Consider Apple,which last summer split its shares four-for-one. As a result of that split, the stock’s weight in the Dow instantly fell by three-quarters. This in fact ended up helping the Dow, since Apple stock has struggled since that split and is now in danger of entering into a bear market.\nAnother of the Dow’s head-scratching idiosyncrasies is that in some early years it failed to adjust for stock splits for up to several months at a time. Yet another is that, in a number of those early years, split-adjustment factors were rounded to just one decimal point. According to the authors of this new study, this rounding led to discrepancies of as much as 0.4% on the occasion of each split — equivalent to more than 125 Dow points at today’s index level.\nAnother peculiarity: The Dow treated stock dividends differently than stock splits, even though the two are functionally equivalent. According to the research’s authors, the Dow’s component stocks declared 105 stock dividends between them from 1928 through 2019, only 24 of which were reflected in the calculation of the Dow’s value.\nDividends\nBy the far the most consequential methodological decision that the Dow made over the years has been to omit dividends, Professor Sialm told me in an interview. Nearly half of the Dow’s long-term total return since 1928 has come from dividends.\nYou might think that this heavy reliance on dividends is unique to the Dow, which is constructed from the bluest of blue-chip stocks that typically offer higher dividend yields. But what the researchers found for the Dow is also true for the U.S. stock market as a whole. Since 1871, according to data from Yale University’s Robert Shiller, the U.S. stock market’s price-only annualized return has been 4.6%, almost precisely half of the market’s 9.3% annualized return on a total-return basis. (See the chart below.)\n\nNotice what this means for the near-term, given that the S&P 500’sSPX,-0.54%current yield is just 1.5%. Assuming the future is like the past, and depending on the growth rate of dividends, this low yield points to an expected total return for the stock market from current levels of not much more than 3% annualized. That’s less than a percentage point greater than the 10-year breakeven inflation rate.\nCould the future be different than the past?\nThe bulls have a solid theoretical response to this otherwise dismal projection. According to a longstanding theory in finance, tracing to work in the 1960s by Franco Modigliani, who in 1985 would win the Nobel Prize in Economics, companies that pay out less in dividends should grow faster. That’s because they can reinvest in their own growth what they otherwise would have paid out to shareholders. A lower dividend yield therefore should translate into an accelerated earnings growth rate and a higher stock price.\nIf so, stocks’ total return should not be affected by a lower dividend yield, since price appreciation would compensate by making a correspondingly greater contribution.\nCrucially, Modigliani advanced his theory when share repurchases did not play a big role in the stock market, and his theory may need to be modified to account for them. If companies take the money they save from paying out fewer dividends and spend it on repurchases instead of investing it in their future growth, then a lower dividend yield may not translate into accelerated subsequent earnings growth.\nWhether or not it does depends crucially on whether companies repurchase shares when they are undervalued. Their track record here over the past two decades is not encouraging.\nThis means we can’t automatically assume that today’s low dividend yield will mean that, in coming years, price appreciation will constitute a greater proportion of stocks’ total return. In an email, Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, pointed out that dividends over the past two decades have represented just as big a proportion of stocks’ total return as in prior decades when dividend yields were much higher. For the 20 years through 2020, Arnott wrote, “the real return on stocks (S&P 500) was 3.8%, of which dividend yield contributed exactly half.”\nTo be sure, Sialm added, theory quickly gets complicated when trying to assess the interactions between dividends, price appreciation, and buybacks. There is no guarantee that price appreciation won’t make up for the market’s low current dividend yield. Nevertheless, he continued, it is likely that stock investors face an extended low-growth era.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320165902,"gmtCreate":1615044539506,"gmtModify":1703484419453,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320165902","repostId":"1169596583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169596583","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614958557,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169596583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169596583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.","content":"<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 23:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169596583","content_text":"(March 5) Palantir plunged more than 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134647073,"gmtCreate":1622232518292,"gmtModify":1634182645293,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134647073","repostId":"2138488761","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359906768,"gmtCreate":1616311115554,"gmtModify":1634526378053,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359906768","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117450855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616166767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117450855?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326726639,"gmtCreate":1615717991421,"gmtModify":1703492361186,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326726639","repostId":"2118630979","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324181251,"gmtCreate":1615974513673,"gmtModify":1703495739590,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324181251","repostId":"1176435771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176435771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615973979,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176435771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Financial Crisis the World Forgot<blockquote>被世界遗忘的金融危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176435771","media":"NewYork Times","summary":"The Federal Reserve crossed red lines to rescue markets in March 2020. Is there enough momentum to f","content":"<p>  The Federal Reserve crossed red lines to rescue markets in March 2020. Is there enough momentum to fix the weaknesses the episode exposed?  By the middle of March 2020 a sense of anxiety pervaded the Federal Reserve. The fast-unfolding coronavirus pandemic was rippling through global markets in dangerous ways.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在2020年3月越过红线救市。有足够的动力来修复这一集暴露的弱点吗？到2020年3月中旬，一种焦虑感弥漫在美联储。快速蔓延的冠状病毒疫情正以危险的方式席卷全球市场。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in Treasurys — the government securities that are considered among the safest assets in the world, and the bedrock of the entire bond market — had become disjointed as panicked investors tried to sell everything they owned to raise cash. Buyers were scarce. The Treasury market had never broken down so badly, even in the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>国债——被认为是世界上最安全的资产之一的政府证券，也是整个债券市场的基石——的交易已经变得脱节，因为惊慌失措的投资者试图出售他们拥有的一切来筹集现金。买家稀少。即使在2008年金融危机最严重的时候，美国国债市场也从未出现过如此严重的崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed called an emergency meeting on March 15, a Sunday. Lorie Logan, who oversees the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s asset portfolio, summarized the brewing crisis. She and her colleagues dialed into a conference from the fortresslike New York Fed headquarters, unable to travel to Washington given the meeting’s impromptu nature and the spreading virus. Regional bank presidents assembled across America stared back from the monitor. Washington-based governors were arrayed in a socially distanced ring around the Fed Board’s mahogany table.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在3月15日周日召开了紧急会议。负责监管纽约联邦储备银行资产组合的洛里·洛根总结了这场酝酿中的危机。她和她的同事从堡垒般的纽约联储总部拨打了一个会议电话，由于会议的即兴性质和病毒的传播，他们无法前往华盛顿。聚集在美国各地的地区银行行长从监视器上回头看。华盛顿的州长们在美联储董事会的红木桌子周围排成一圈，保持社交距离。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Logan delivered a blunt assessment: While the Fed had been buying government-backed bonds the week before to soothe the volatile Treasury market, market contacts said it hadn’t been enough. To fix things, the Fed mightneed to buy much more. And fast.</p><p><blockquote>洛根女士给出了一个直言不讳的评估：尽管美联储前一周一直在购买政府支持的债券，以安抚动荡的美国国债市场，但市场联系人表示，这还不够。为了解决问题，美联储可能需要购买更多。而且很快。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials are an argumentative bunch, and they fiercely debated the other issue before them that day, whether to cut interest rates to near-zero.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员是一群好争论的人，他们当天激烈地争论着摆在他们面前的另一个问题，是否将利率降至接近零的水平。</blockquote></p><p> But, in a testament to the gravity of the breakdown in the government bond market, there was no dissent about whether the central bank needed to stem what was happening by stepping in as a buyer. That afternoon, the Fedannounced an enormous purchase program, promising to make $500 billion in government bond purchases and to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed debt.</p><p><blockquote>但是，对于央行是否需要作为买家介入来阻止正在发生的事情，没有人对政府债券市场崩溃的严重性有异议，这证明了政府债券市场崩溃的严重性。当天下午，美联储宣布了一项庞大的购买计划，承诺购买5000亿美元的政府债券，并购买2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持债务。</blockquote></p><p> It wasn’t the central bank’s first effort to stop the unfolding disaster, nor would it be the last. But it was a clear signal that the 2020 meltdown echoed the 2008 crisis in seriousness and complexity. Where the housing crisis and ensuing crash took years to unfold, the coronavirus panic had struck in weeks.</p><p><blockquote>这不是央行第一次试图阻止这场灾难的发生，也不会是最后一次。但这是一个明确的信号，表明2020年的崩溃在严重性和复杂性上与2008年的危机相呼应。在住房危机和随之而来的崩盘花了数年时间才显现的地方，冠状病毒恐慌在几周内就袭来了。</blockquote></p><p> As March wore on, each hour incubating a new calamity, policymakers were forced tocross boundaries, break precedentsand make new uses of the U.S. government’s vast powers to save domestic markets, keep cash flowing abroad and prevent a full-blown financial crisis from compounding a public health tragedy.</p><p><blockquote>随着三月的过去，每小时都在酝酿一场新的灾难，政策制定者被迫跨越国界，打破先例，并新利用美国政府的巨大权力来拯救国内市场，保持现金流向海外，并防止全面的金融危机加剧公共卫生悲剧。</blockquote></p><p> The rescue worked, so it is easy to forget the peril America’s investors and businesses faced a year ago. But the systemwide weaknesses that were exposed last March remain, and are now under the microscope of Washington policymakers.</p><p><blockquote>救援奏效了，所以人们很容易忘记一年前美国投资者和企业面临的危险。但去年3月暴露出来的全系统弱点依然存在，现在正受到华盛顿政策制定者的密切关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How It Started</b></p><p><blockquote><b>它是如何开始的</b></blockquote></p><p> Financial markets began to wobble on Feb. 21, 2020, when Italian authorities announced localized lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>2020年2月21日，意大利当局宣布局部封锁，金融市场开始波动。</blockquote></p><p> At first, the sell-off in risky investments was normal — a rational “flight to safety” while the global economic outlook was rapidly darkening. Stocks plummeted, demand for many corporate bonds disappeared, and people poured into super-secure investments, like U.S. Treasury bonds.</p><p><blockquote>起初，风险投资的抛售是正常的——在全球经济前景迅速黯淡的情况下，这是一种理性的“避险”。股市暴跌，对许多公司债券的需求消失，人们涌入超级安全的投资，比如美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> On March 3, as market jitters intensified, the Fedcut interest ratesto about 1 percent — its first emergency move since the 2008 financial crisis. Some analysts chidedthe Fed for overreacting, and others asked an obvious question: What could the Fed realistically do in the face of a public health threat?</p><p><blockquote>3月3日，随着市场紧张情绪加剧，美联储将利率降至1%左右，这是自2008年金融危机以来的首次紧急举措。一些分析师指责美联储反应过度，而另一些分析师则提出了一个显而易见的问题：面对公共健康威胁，美联储实际上能做些什么？</blockquote></p><p> “We do recognize that a rate cut will not reduce the rate of infection, it won’t fix a broken supply chain,” Chair Jerome H. Powell said at a news conference, explaining that the Fed was doing what it could to keep credit cheap and available.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔(Jerome H.Powell)在新闻发布会上表示：“我们确实认识到，降息不会降低感染率，也不会修复断裂的供应链。”他解释说，美联储正在尽其所能保持信贷便宜且可用。</blockquote></p><p> But the health disaster was quickly metastasizing into a market crisis.</p><p><blockquote>但这场健康灾难很快演变成了一场市场危机。</blockquote></p><p> Lockdowns in Italy deepened during the second week of March, and oil prices plummeted as a price war raged, sending tremors across stock, currency and commodity markets. Then, something weird started to happen: Instead of snapping up Treasury bonds, arguably the world’s safest investment, investors began trying to sell them.</p><p><blockquote>意大利的封锁在3月的第二周加深，随着价格战的激烈，油价暴跌，股市、货币和大宗商品市场都发生了震动。然后，奇怪的事情开始发生：投资者没有抢购可以说是世界上最安全的投资的国债，而是开始试图出售它们。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt — which usually drops when investors seek safe harbor — started to rise on March 10, suggesting investors didn’t want safe assets. They wanted cold, hard cash, and they were trying to sell anything and everything to get it.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率（通常在投资者寻求安全港时会下降）于3月10日开始上升，表明投资者不想要安全资产。他们想要冰冷的现金，他们试图卖掉任何东西来得到它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How It Worsened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>病情是如何恶化的</b></blockquote></p><p> Religion works through churches. Democracy through congresses and parliaments. Capitalism is an idea made real through a series of relationships between debtors and creditors, risk and reward. And by last March 11, those equations were no longer adding up.</p><p><blockquote>宗教通过教堂发挥作用。通过国会和议会实现民主。资本主义是一种通过债务人和债权人、风险和回报之间的一系列关系而实现的理念。到去年3月11日，这些方程式不再相加。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That was the day the World Health Organizationofficially declaredthe virus outbreak a pandemic, and the morning on which it was becoming clear that a sell-off had spiraled into a panic.</p><p><blockquote>那一天，世界卫生组织正式宣布该病毒爆发为大流行，而那天早上，抛售显然已升级为恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began to roll out measure after measure in a bid to soothe conditions, first offeringhuge temporary infusions of cashto banks, thenaccelerating plansto buy Treasury bonds as that market swung out of whack.</p><p><blockquote>美联储开始推出一项又一项措施来缓解局势，首先向银行提供巨额临时现金注入，然后在市场出现异常时加快购买国债的计划。</blockquote></p><p> But by Friday, March 13, government bond markets were just one of many problems.</p><p><blockquote>但到了3月13日星期五，政府债券市场只是众多问题之一。</blockquote></p><p> Investors had been pulling their cash from prime money market mutual funds, where they park it to earn a slightly higher return, for days. But those outflows began to accelerate, prompting the funds themselves to pull back sharply from short-term corporate debt markets as they raced to return money to investors. Banks that serve as market conduits were less willing than usual to buy and hold new securities, even just temporarily. That made it harder to sell everything, be it a company bond or Treasury debt.</p><p><blockquote>几天来，投资者一直在从优质货币市场共同基金中提取现金，并将其存放在那里以赚取略高的回报。但这些资金外流开始加速，促使这些基金本身在竞相向投资者返还资金时大幅撤出短期公司债务市场。作为市场渠道的银行不太愿意购买和持有新证券，即使只是暂时购买和持有。这使得出售所有东西变得更加困难，无论是公司债券还是国债。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s announcement after its March 15 emergency meeting — that it would slash rates and buy bonds in the most critical markets — was an attempt to get things under control.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在3月15日紧急会议后宣布，将在最关键的市场大幅降息并购买债券，这是试图控制局势。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell worried that the fix would fall short as short- and long-term debt of all kinds became hard to sell. He approached Andreas Lehnert, director of the Fed’s financial stability division, in the Washington boardroom after the meeting and asked him to prepare emergency lending programs, which the central bank had used in 2008 to serve as a support system to unraveling markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔担心，随着各种短期和长期债务变得难以出售，修复方案将无法实现。会后，他在华盛顿会议室找到美联储金融稳定部门主任安德烈亚斯·莱纳特(Andreas Lehnert)，要求他准备紧急贷款计划，美联储在2008年曾使用该计划作为崩溃市场的支持系统。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Lehnert went straight to a musty office, where he communicated with Fed technicians, economists and lawyers via instant messenger and video chats — in-person meetings were already restricted — and worked late into the night to get the paperwork ready.</p><p><blockquote>莱纳特先生直接去了一间发霉的办公室，在那里他通过即时通讯和视频聊天（面对面的会议已经受到限制）与美联储技术人员、经济学家和律师进行了交流，并工作到深夜准备文件。</blockquote></p><p> Starting that Tuesday morning, after another day of market carnage, the central bank began to unveil the steady drip of rescue programs Mr. Lehnert and his colleagues had been working on: one to buy upshort-term corporate debtand another to keep funding flowing to key banks. Shortlybefore midnighton Wednesday, March 18, the Fed announced a program to rescue embattled money market funds by offering to effectively take hard-to-sell securities off their hands.</p><p><blockquote>从周二早上开始，在又一天的市场大屠杀之后，央行开始推出莱纳特先生和他的同事们一直在努力的稳定的救援计划：一个是购买短期公司债务，另一个是保持资金流向主要银行。3月18日星期三午夜前不久，美联储宣布了一项拯救陷入困境的货币市场基金的计划，提出有效地将难以出售的证券从它们手中夺走。</blockquote></p><p> But by the end of that week, everything was a mess.Foreign central banks and corporations were offloading U.S. debt, partly to raise dollars companies needed to pay interest and other bills; hedge funds werenixing a highly leveraged tradethat had broken down as the market went haywire, dumping Treasurys into the choked market.Corporate bondandcommercial real estate debt marketslooked dicey as companies faced credit rating downgrades and as hotels and malls saw business prospects tank.</p><p><blockquote>但到了那个周末，一切都一团糟。外国央行和企业正在抛售美国债务，部分原因是为了筹集企业支付利息和其他账单所需的美元；对冲基金正在取消随着市场失控而崩溃的高杠杆交易，将美国国债倾销到陷入困境的市场中。由于公司面临信用评级下调以及酒店和购物中心业务前景低迷，公司债券和商业房地产债务市场看起来充满风险。</blockquote></p><p> The world’s most powerful central bank was throwing solutions at the markets as rapidly as it could, and it wasn’t enough.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最强大的央行正在以最快的速度向市场抛出解决方案，但这还不够。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How They Fixed It</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们是怎么修好的</b></blockquote></p><p> The next weekend, March 21 and 22, was a frenzy. Officials dialed into calls from home, completing still-secret program outlines and negotiating with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s team to establish a layer of insurance to protect the efforts against credit losses. After a tormented 48-hour hustle, the Fed sent out a mammoth news release on Monday morning.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的周末，3月21日和22日，是一场狂热。官员们从家里拨通了评级的电话，完成了仍然保密的计划大纲，并与财政部长姆努钦的团队进行了谈判，以建立一层保险来保护这些努力免受信贷损失。经过48小时的痛苦忙碌后，美联储于周一上午发布了一份庞大的新闻稿。</blockquote></p><p> Headlineshit newswiresat 8 a.m., well before American markets opened. The Fed promised tobuy an unlimited amountof Treasury debt and to purchase commercial mortgage-backed securities — efforts to save the most central markets.</p><p><blockquote>头条新闻周六上午8点，远在美国市场开盘之前。美联储承诺购买无限量的国债和商业抵押贷款支持证券——这是为了拯救最核心的市场。</blockquote></p><p> The announcement also pushed the central bank into uncharted territory. The Fed was established in 1913 toserve as a lender of last resortto troubled banks. On March 23, it pledged to funnel help far beyond that financial core. The Fed said it would buy corporate debt and help to get loans to midsize businesses for the first time ever.</p><p><blockquote>这一声明也将央行推向了未知的领域。美联储成立于1913年，作为陷入困境的银行的最后贷款人。3月23日，它承诺提供远远超出财务核心的帮助。美联储表示，将首次购买企业债务并帮助中型企业获得贷款。</blockquote></p><p> It finally worked. The dash for cash turned around starting that day.</p><p><blockquote>终于奏效了。从那天开始，现金热潮出现了转机。</blockquote></p><p> The March 23 efforts took an approach that Mr. Lehnert referred to internally as “covering the waterfront.” Fed economists had discerned which capital marketswere tied to huge numbers of jobsand made sure that every one of them had a Fed support program.</p><p><blockquote>3月23日的努力采取了莱纳特先生在内部称之为“覆盖海滨”的方法。美联储经济学家已经辨别出哪些资本市场与大量就业岗位相关，并确保每个资本市场都有美联储的支持计划。</blockquote></p><p> On April 9, officials put final pieces of the strategy into play. Backed by a huge pot of insurance money from a rescue package just passed by Congress — lawmakers had handed the Treasury up to$454 billion— they announced that they would expand already-announced efforts and set up another to help funnel credit to states and big cities.</p><p><blockquote>4月9日，官员们实施了该战略的最后部分。在国会刚刚通过的救助计划中获得的巨额保险金（立法者向财政部提供了高达4540亿美元的资金）的支持下，他们宣布将扩大已经宣布的努力，并建立另一个计划来帮助向各州和大城市输送信贷。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s 2008 rescue effort had been widely criticized as a bank bailout. The 2020 redux was to rescue everything.</p><p><blockquote>美联储2008年的救助行动被广泛批评为银行救助。2020年的redux是为了拯救一切。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Fed, along with the Treasury, most likely saved the nation from a crippling financial crisis that would have made it harder for businesses to survive, rebound and rehire, intensifying the economic damage the coronavirus went on to inflict. Many of the programs have since ended or are scheduled to do so, and markets are functioning fine.</p><p><blockquote>美联储和财政部很可能将美国从一场严重的金融危机中拯救出来，这场危机将使企业更难生存、反弹和重新雇用，加剧冠状病毒继续造成的经济损害。许多项目已经结束或计划结束，市场运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> But there’s no guarantee that the calm will prove permanent.</p><p><blockquote>但是不能保证这种平静会是永久的。</blockquote></p><p> “The financial system remains vulnerable” to a repeat of last March’s sweeping disaster as “the underlying structures and mechanisms that gave rise to the turmoil are still in place,” the Financial Stability Board, a global oversight body, wrote in a meltdownpost-mortem.</p><p><blockquote>全球监督机构金融稳定委员会（Financial Stability Board）在一份meltdownpost-mortem中写道，“金融体系仍然容易”重演去年3月的全面灾难，因为“导致动荡的潜在结构和机制仍然存在”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Comes Next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来会发生什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The question policymakers and lawmakers are now grappling with is how to fix those vulnerabilities, which could portend problems for the Treasury market and money market funds if investors get seriously spooked again.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者和立法者现在正在努力解决的问题是如何修复这些漏洞，如果投资者再次受到严重惊吓，这可能预示着国债市场和货币市场基金将出现问题。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s rescue ramps up the urgency to safeguard the system. Central bankers set a precedent by saving previously untouched markets, raising the possibility that investors will take risks, assuming the central bank will always step in if things get bad enough.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的救助增加了保护该体系的紧迫性。央行行长们开创了一个先例，拯救了以前未触及的市场，增加了投资者承担风险的可能性，假设如果情况变得足够糟糕，央行总是会介入。</blockquote></p><p> There’s some bipartisan appetite for reform: Trump-era regulators began a review of money markets, and Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has said she will focus on financial oversight. But change won’t be easy. Protests in the street helped to galvanize financial reform after 2008. There is little popular outrage over the March 2020 meltdown, both because it was set off by a health crisis — not bad banker behavior — and because it was resolved quickly.</p><p><blockquote>两党都有一些改革兴趣：特朗普时代的监管机构开始对货币市场进行审查，财政部长珍妮特·L·耶伦表示，她将重点关注金融监管。但是改变并不容易。街头抗议有助于刺激2008年后的金融改革。人们对2020年3月的崩溃几乎没有感到愤怒，这既是因为它是由健康危机引发的——而不是不良银行家行为——也因为它很快得到了解决。</blockquote></p><p> Industry playersare already mobilizing a lobbying effort, and they may find allies in resisting regulation, including among lawmakers.</p><p><blockquote>行业参与者已经在动员游说努力，他们可能会找到抵制监管的盟友，包括立法者。</blockquote></p><p> “I would point out that money market funds have been remarkably stable and successful,” Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, said during aJan. 19 hearing.</p><p><blockquote>“我想指出的是，货币市场基金一直非常稳定和成功，”宾夕法尼亚州共和党参议员帕特里克·J·图米(Patrick J.Toomey)在aJan期间表示。19听证会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1605590967916","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Financial Crisis the World Forgot<blockquote>被世界遗忘的金融危机</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Financial Crisis the World Forgot<blockquote>被世界遗忘的金融危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">NewYork Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-17 17:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  The Federal Reserve crossed red lines to rescue markets in March 2020. Is there enough momentum to fix the weaknesses the episode exposed?  By the middle of March 2020 a sense of anxiety pervaded the Federal Reserve. The fast-unfolding coronavirus pandemic was rippling through global markets in dangerous ways.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在2020年3月越过红线救市。有足够的动力来修复这一集暴露的弱点吗？到2020年3月中旬，一种焦虑感弥漫在美联储。快速蔓延的冠状病毒疫情正以危险的方式席卷全球市场。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in Treasurys — the government securities that are considered among the safest assets in the world, and the bedrock of the entire bond market — had become disjointed as panicked investors tried to sell everything they owned to raise cash. Buyers were scarce. The Treasury market had never broken down so badly, even in the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>国债——被认为是世界上最安全的资产之一的政府证券，也是整个债券市场的基石——的交易已经变得脱节，因为惊慌失措的投资者试图出售他们拥有的一切来筹集现金。买家稀少。即使在2008年金融危机最严重的时候，美国国债市场也从未出现过如此严重的崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed called an emergency meeting on March 15, a Sunday. Lorie Logan, who oversees the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s asset portfolio, summarized the brewing crisis. She and her colleagues dialed into a conference from the fortresslike New York Fed headquarters, unable to travel to Washington given the meeting’s impromptu nature and the spreading virus. Regional bank presidents assembled across America stared back from the monitor. Washington-based governors were arrayed in a socially distanced ring around the Fed Board’s mahogany table.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在3月15日周日召开了紧急会议。负责监管纽约联邦储备银行资产组合的洛里·洛根总结了这场酝酿中的危机。她和她的同事从堡垒般的纽约联储总部拨打了一个会议电话，由于会议的即兴性质和病毒的传播，他们无法前往华盛顿。聚集在美国各地的地区银行行长从监视器上回头看。华盛顿的州长们在美联储董事会的红木桌子周围排成一圈，保持社交距离。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Logan delivered a blunt assessment: While the Fed had been buying government-backed bonds the week before to soothe the volatile Treasury market, market contacts said it hadn’t been enough. To fix things, the Fed mightneed to buy much more. And fast.</p><p><blockquote>洛根女士给出了一个直言不讳的评估：尽管美联储前一周一直在购买政府支持的债券，以安抚动荡的美国国债市场，但市场联系人表示，这还不够。为了解决问题，美联储可能需要购买更多。而且很快。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials are an argumentative bunch, and they fiercely debated the other issue before them that day, whether to cut interest rates to near-zero.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员是一群好争论的人，他们当天激烈地争论着摆在他们面前的另一个问题，是否将利率降至接近零的水平。</blockquote></p><p> But, in a testament to the gravity of the breakdown in the government bond market, there was no dissent about whether the central bank needed to stem what was happening by stepping in as a buyer. That afternoon, the Fedannounced an enormous purchase program, promising to make $500 billion in government bond purchases and to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed debt.</p><p><blockquote>但是，对于央行是否需要作为买家介入来阻止正在发生的事情，没有人对政府债券市场崩溃的严重性有异议，这证明了政府债券市场崩溃的严重性。当天下午，美联储宣布了一项庞大的购买计划，承诺购买5000亿美元的政府债券，并购买2000亿美元的抵押贷款支持债务。</blockquote></p><p> It wasn’t the central bank’s first effort to stop the unfolding disaster, nor would it be the last. But it was a clear signal that the 2020 meltdown echoed the 2008 crisis in seriousness and complexity. Where the housing crisis and ensuing crash took years to unfold, the coronavirus panic had struck in weeks.</p><p><blockquote>这不是央行第一次试图阻止这场灾难的发生，也不会是最后一次。但这是一个明确的信号，表明2020年的崩溃在严重性和复杂性上与2008年的危机相呼应。在住房危机和随之而来的崩盘花了数年时间才显现的地方，冠状病毒恐慌在几周内就袭来了。</blockquote></p><p> As March wore on, each hour incubating a new calamity, policymakers were forced tocross boundaries, break precedentsand make new uses of the U.S. government’s vast powers to save domestic markets, keep cash flowing abroad and prevent a full-blown financial crisis from compounding a public health tragedy.</p><p><blockquote>随着三月的过去，每小时都在酝酿一场新的灾难，政策制定者被迫跨越国界，打破先例，并新利用美国政府的巨大权力来拯救国内市场，保持现金流向海外，并防止全面的金融危机加剧公共卫生悲剧。</blockquote></p><p> The rescue worked, so it is easy to forget the peril America’s investors and businesses faced a year ago. But the systemwide weaknesses that were exposed last March remain, and are now under the microscope of Washington policymakers.</p><p><blockquote>救援奏效了，所以人们很容易忘记一年前美国投资者和企业面临的危险。但去年3月暴露出来的全系统弱点依然存在，现在正受到华盛顿政策制定者的密切关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How It Started</b></p><p><blockquote><b>它是如何开始的</b></blockquote></p><p> Financial markets began to wobble on Feb. 21, 2020, when Italian authorities announced localized lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>2020年2月21日，意大利当局宣布局部封锁，金融市场开始波动。</blockquote></p><p> At first, the sell-off in risky investments was normal — a rational “flight to safety” while the global economic outlook was rapidly darkening. Stocks plummeted, demand for many corporate bonds disappeared, and people poured into super-secure investments, like U.S. Treasury bonds.</p><p><blockquote>起初，风险投资的抛售是正常的——在全球经济前景迅速黯淡的情况下，这是一种理性的“避险”。股市暴跌，对许多公司债券的需求消失，人们涌入超级安全的投资，比如美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> On March 3, as market jitters intensified, the Fedcut interest ratesto about 1 percent — its first emergency move since the 2008 financial crisis. Some analysts chidedthe Fed for overreacting, and others asked an obvious question: What could the Fed realistically do in the face of a public health threat?</p><p><blockquote>3月3日，随着市场紧张情绪加剧，美联储将利率降至1%左右，这是自2008年金融危机以来的首次紧急举措。一些分析师指责美联储反应过度，而另一些分析师则提出了一个显而易见的问题：面对公共健康威胁，美联储实际上能做些什么？</blockquote></p><p> “We do recognize that a rate cut will not reduce the rate of infection, it won’t fix a broken supply chain,” Chair Jerome H. Powell said at a news conference, explaining that the Fed was doing what it could to keep credit cheap and available.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔(Jerome H.Powell)在新闻发布会上表示：“我们确实认识到，降息不会降低感染率，也不会修复断裂的供应链。”他解释说，美联储正在尽其所能保持信贷便宜且可用。</blockquote></p><p> But the health disaster was quickly metastasizing into a market crisis.</p><p><blockquote>但这场健康灾难很快演变成了一场市场危机。</blockquote></p><p> Lockdowns in Italy deepened during the second week of March, and oil prices plummeted as a price war raged, sending tremors across stock, currency and commodity markets. Then, something weird started to happen: Instead of snapping up Treasury bonds, arguably the world’s safest investment, investors began trying to sell them.</p><p><blockquote>意大利的封锁在3月的第二周加深，随着价格战的激烈，油价暴跌，股市、货币和大宗商品市场都发生了震动。然后，奇怪的事情开始发生：投资者没有抢购可以说是世界上最安全的投资的国债，而是开始试图出售它们。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt — which usually drops when investors seek safe harbor — started to rise on March 10, suggesting investors didn’t want safe assets. They wanted cold, hard cash, and they were trying to sell anything and everything to get it.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率（通常在投资者寻求安全港时会下降）于3月10日开始上升，表明投资者不想要安全资产。他们想要冰冷的现金，他们试图卖掉任何东西来得到它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How It Worsened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>病情是如何恶化的</b></blockquote></p><p> Religion works through churches. Democracy through congresses and parliaments. Capitalism is an idea made real through a series of relationships between debtors and creditors, risk and reward. And by last March 11, those equations were no longer adding up.</p><p><blockquote>宗教通过教堂发挥作用。通过国会和议会实现民主。资本主义是一种通过债务人和债权人、风险和回报之间的一系列关系而实现的理念。到去年3月11日，这些方程式不再相加。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That was the day the World Health Organizationofficially declaredthe virus outbreak a pandemic, and the morning on which it was becoming clear that a sell-off had spiraled into a panic.</p><p><blockquote>那一天，世界卫生组织正式宣布该病毒爆发为大流行，而那天早上，抛售显然已升级为恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed began to roll out measure after measure in a bid to soothe conditions, first offeringhuge temporary infusions of cashto banks, thenaccelerating plansto buy Treasury bonds as that market swung out of whack.</p><p><blockquote>美联储开始推出一项又一项措施来缓解局势，首先向银行提供巨额临时现金注入，然后在市场出现异常时加快购买国债的计划。</blockquote></p><p> But by Friday, March 13, government bond markets were just one of many problems.</p><p><blockquote>但到了3月13日星期五，政府债券市场只是众多问题之一。</blockquote></p><p> Investors had been pulling their cash from prime money market mutual funds, where they park it to earn a slightly higher return, for days. But those outflows began to accelerate, prompting the funds themselves to pull back sharply from short-term corporate debt markets as they raced to return money to investors. Banks that serve as market conduits were less willing than usual to buy and hold new securities, even just temporarily. That made it harder to sell everything, be it a company bond or Treasury debt.</p><p><blockquote>几天来，投资者一直在从优质货币市场共同基金中提取现金，并将其存放在那里以赚取略高的回报。但这些资金外流开始加速，促使这些基金本身在竞相向投资者返还资金时大幅撤出短期公司债务市场。作为市场渠道的银行不太愿意购买和持有新证券，即使只是暂时购买和持有。这使得出售所有东西变得更加困难，无论是公司债券还是国债。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s announcement after its March 15 emergency meeting — that it would slash rates and buy bonds in the most critical markets — was an attempt to get things under control.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在3月15日紧急会议后宣布，将在最关键的市场大幅降息并购买债券，这是试图控制局势。</blockquote></p><p> But Mr. Powell worried that the fix would fall short as short- and long-term debt of all kinds became hard to sell. He approached Andreas Lehnert, director of the Fed’s financial stability division, in the Washington boardroom after the meeting and asked him to prepare emergency lending programs, which the central bank had used in 2008 to serve as a support system to unraveling markets.</p><p><blockquote>但鲍威尔担心，随着各种短期和长期债务变得难以出售，修复方案将无法实现。会后，他在华盛顿会议室找到美联储金融稳定部门主任安德烈亚斯·莱纳特(Andreas Lehnert)，要求他准备紧急贷款计划，美联储在2008年曾使用该计划作为崩溃市场的支持系统。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Lehnert went straight to a musty office, where he communicated with Fed technicians, economists and lawyers via instant messenger and video chats — in-person meetings were already restricted — and worked late into the night to get the paperwork ready.</p><p><blockquote>莱纳特先生直接去了一间发霉的办公室，在那里他通过即时通讯和视频聊天（面对面的会议已经受到限制）与美联储技术人员、经济学家和律师进行了交流，并工作到深夜准备文件。</blockquote></p><p> Starting that Tuesday morning, after another day of market carnage, the central bank began to unveil the steady drip of rescue programs Mr. Lehnert and his colleagues had been working on: one to buy upshort-term corporate debtand another to keep funding flowing to key banks. Shortlybefore midnighton Wednesday, March 18, the Fed announced a program to rescue embattled money market funds by offering to effectively take hard-to-sell securities off their hands.</p><p><blockquote>从周二早上开始，在又一天的市场大屠杀之后，央行开始推出莱纳特先生和他的同事们一直在努力的稳定的救援计划：一个是购买短期公司债务，另一个是保持资金流向主要银行。3月18日星期三午夜前不久，美联储宣布了一项拯救陷入困境的货币市场基金的计划，提出有效地将难以出售的证券从它们手中夺走。</blockquote></p><p> But by the end of that week, everything was a mess.Foreign central banks and corporations were offloading U.S. debt, partly to raise dollars companies needed to pay interest and other bills; hedge funds werenixing a highly leveraged tradethat had broken down as the market went haywire, dumping Treasurys into the choked market.Corporate bondandcommercial real estate debt marketslooked dicey as companies faced credit rating downgrades and as hotels and malls saw business prospects tank.</p><p><blockquote>但到了那个周末，一切都一团糟。外国央行和企业正在抛售美国债务，部分原因是为了筹集企业支付利息和其他账单所需的美元；对冲基金正在取消随着市场失控而崩溃的高杠杆交易，将美国国债倾销到陷入困境的市场中。由于公司面临信用评级下调以及酒店和购物中心业务前景低迷，公司债券和商业房地产债务市场看起来充满风险。</blockquote></p><p> The world’s most powerful central bank was throwing solutions at the markets as rapidly as it could, and it wasn’t enough.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最强大的央行正在以最快的速度向市场抛出解决方案，但这还不够。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How They Fixed It</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他们是怎么修好的</b></blockquote></p><p> The next weekend, March 21 and 22, was a frenzy. Officials dialed into calls from home, completing still-secret program outlines and negotiating with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s team to establish a layer of insurance to protect the efforts against credit losses. After a tormented 48-hour hustle, the Fed sent out a mammoth news release on Monday morning.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的周末，3月21日和22日，是一场狂热。官员们从家里拨通了评级的电话，完成了仍然保密的计划大纲，并与财政部长姆努钦的团队进行了谈判，以建立一层保险来保护这些努力免受信贷损失。经过48小时的痛苦忙碌后，美联储于周一上午发布了一份庞大的新闻稿。</blockquote></p><p> Headlineshit newswiresat 8 a.m., well before American markets opened. The Fed promised tobuy an unlimited amountof Treasury debt and to purchase commercial mortgage-backed securities — efforts to save the most central markets.</p><p><blockquote>头条新闻周六上午8点，远在美国市场开盘之前。美联储承诺购买无限量的国债和商业抵押贷款支持证券——这是为了拯救最核心的市场。</blockquote></p><p> The announcement also pushed the central bank into uncharted territory. The Fed was established in 1913 toserve as a lender of last resortto troubled banks. On March 23, it pledged to funnel help far beyond that financial core. The Fed said it would buy corporate debt and help to get loans to midsize businesses for the first time ever.</p><p><blockquote>这一声明也将央行推向了未知的领域。美联储成立于1913年，作为陷入困境的银行的最后贷款人。3月23日，它承诺提供远远超出财务核心的帮助。美联储表示，将首次购买企业债务并帮助中型企业获得贷款。</blockquote></p><p> It finally worked. The dash for cash turned around starting that day.</p><p><blockquote>终于奏效了。从那天开始，现金热潮出现了转机。</blockquote></p><p> The March 23 efforts took an approach that Mr. Lehnert referred to internally as “covering the waterfront.” Fed economists had discerned which capital marketswere tied to huge numbers of jobsand made sure that every one of them had a Fed support program.</p><p><blockquote>3月23日的努力采取了莱纳特先生在内部称之为“覆盖海滨”的方法。美联储经济学家已经辨别出哪些资本市场与大量就业岗位相关，并确保每个资本市场都有美联储的支持计划。</blockquote></p><p> On April 9, officials put final pieces of the strategy into play. Backed by a huge pot of insurance money from a rescue package just passed by Congress — lawmakers had handed the Treasury up to$454 billion— they announced that they would expand already-announced efforts and set up another to help funnel credit to states and big cities.</p><p><blockquote>4月9日，官员们实施了该战略的最后部分。在国会刚刚通过的救助计划中获得的巨额保险金（立法者向财政部提供了高达4540亿美元的资金）的支持下，他们宣布将扩大已经宣布的努力，并建立另一个计划来帮助向各州和大城市输送信贷。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s 2008 rescue effort had been widely criticized as a bank bailout. The 2020 redux was to rescue everything.</p><p><blockquote>美联储2008年的救助行动被广泛批评为银行救助。2020年的redux是为了拯救一切。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Fed, along with the Treasury, most likely saved the nation from a crippling financial crisis that would have made it harder for businesses to survive, rebound and rehire, intensifying the economic damage the coronavirus went on to inflict. Many of the programs have since ended or are scheduled to do so, and markets are functioning fine.</p><p><blockquote>美联储和财政部很可能将美国从一场严重的金融危机中拯救出来，这场危机将使企业更难生存、反弹和重新雇用，加剧冠状病毒继续造成的经济损害。许多项目已经结束或计划结束，市场运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> But there’s no guarantee that the calm will prove permanent.</p><p><blockquote>但是不能保证这种平静会是永久的。</blockquote></p><p> “The financial system remains vulnerable” to a repeat of last March’s sweeping disaster as “the underlying structures and mechanisms that gave rise to the turmoil are still in place,” the Financial Stability Board, a global oversight body, wrote in a meltdownpost-mortem.</p><p><blockquote>全球监督机构金融稳定委员会（Financial Stability Board）在一份meltdownpost-mortem中写道，“金融体系仍然容易”重演去年3月的全面灾难，因为“导致动荡的潜在结构和机制仍然存在”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Comes Next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来会发生什么</b></blockquote></p><p> The question policymakers and lawmakers are now grappling with is how to fix those vulnerabilities, which could portend problems for the Treasury market and money market funds if investors get seriously spooked again.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者和立法者现在正在努力解决的问题是如何修复这些漏洞，如果投资者再次受到严重惊吓，这可能预示着国债市场和货币市场基金将出现问题。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s rescue ramps up the urgency to safeguard the system. Central bankers set a precedent by saving previously untouched markets, raising the possibility that investors will take risks, assuming the central bank will always step in if things get bad enough.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的救助增加了保护该体系的紧迫性。央行行长们开创了一个先例，拯救了以前未触及的市场，增加了投资者承担风险的可能性，假设如果情况变得足够糟糕，央行总是会介入。</blockquote></p><p> There’s some bipartisan appetite for reform: Trump-era regulators began a review of money markets, and Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has said she will focus on financial oversight. But change won’t be easy. Protests in the street helped to galvanize financial reform after 2008. There is little popular outrage over the March 2020 meltdown, both because it was set off by a health crisis — not bad banker behavior — and because it was resolved quickly.</p><p><blockquote>两党都有一些改革兴趣：特朗普时代的监管机构开始对货币市场进行审查，财政部长珍妮特·L·耶伦表示，她将重点关注金融监管。但是改变并不容易。街头抗议有助于刺激2008年后的金融改革。人们对2020年3月的崩溃几乎没有感到愤怒，这既是因为它是由健康危机引发的——而不是不良银行家行为——也因为它很快得到了解决。</blockquote></p><p> Industry playersare already mobilizing a lobbying effort, and they may find allies in resisting regulation, including among lawmakers.</p><p><blockquote>行业参与者已经在动员游说努力，他们可能会找到抵制监管的盟友，包括立法者。</blockquote></p><p> “I would point out that money market funds have been remarkably stable and successful,” Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, said during aJan. 19 hearing.</p><p><blockquote>“我想指出的是，货币市场基金一直非常稳定和成功，”宾夕法尼亚州共和党参议员帕特里克·J·图米(Patrick J.Toomey)在aJan期间表示。19听证会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/business/economy/fed-2020-financial-crisis-covid.html\">NewYork Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/business/economy/fed-2020-financial-crisis-covid.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176435771","content_text":"The Federal Reserve crossed red lines to rescue markets in March 2020. Is there enough momentum to fix the weaknesses the episode exposed?\n\nBy the middle of March 2020 a sense of anxiety pervaded the Federal Reserve. The fast-unfolding coronavirus pandemic was rippling through global markets in dangerous ways.\nTrading in Treasurys — the government securities that are considered among the safest assets in the world, and the bedrock of the entire bond market — had become disjointed as panicked investors tried to sell everything they owned to raise cash. Buyers were scarce. The Treasury market had never broken down so badly, even in the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.\nThe Fed called an emergency meeting on March 15, a Sunday. Lorie Logan, who oversees the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s asset portfolio, summarized the brewing crisis. She and her colleagues dialed into a conference from the fortresslike New York Fed headquarters, unable to travel to Washington given the meeting’s impromptu nature and the spreading virus. Regional bank presidents assembled across America stared back from the monitor. Washington-based governors were arrayed in a socially distanced ring around the Fed Board’s mahogany table.\nMs. Logan delivered a blunt assessment: While the Fed had been buying government-backed bonds the week before to soothe the volatile Treasury market, market contacts said it hadn’t been enough. To fix things, the Fed mightneed to buy much more. And fast.\nFed officials are an argumentative bunch, and they fiercely debated the other issue before them that day, whether to cut interest rates to near-zero.\nBut, in a testament to the gravity of the breakdown in the government bond market, there was no dissent about whether the central bank needed to stem what was happening by stepping in as a buyer. That afternoon, the Fedannounced an enormous purchase program, promising to make $500 billion in government bond purchases and to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed debt.\nIt wasn’t the central bank’s first effort to stop the unfolding disaster, nor would it be the last. But it was a clear signal that the 2020 meltdown echoed the 2008 crisis in seriousness and complexity. Where the housing crisis and ensuing crash took years to unfold, the coronavirus panic had struck in weeks.\nAs March wore on, each hour incubating a new calamity, policymakers were forced tocross boundaries, break precedentsand make new uses of the U.S. government’s vast powers to save domestic markets, keep cash flowing abroad and prevent a full-blown financial crisis from compounding a public health tragedy.\nThe rescue worked, so it is easy to forget the peril America’s investors and businesses faced a year ago. But the systemwide weaknesses that were exposed last March remain, and are now under the microscope of Washington policymakers.\nHow It Started\nFinancial markets began to wobble on Feb. 21, 2020, when Italian authorities announced localized lockdowns.\nAt first, the sell-off in risky investments was normal — a rational “flight to safety” while the global economic outlook was rapidly darkening. Stocks plummeted, demand for many corporate bonds disappeared, and people poured into super-secure investments, like U.S. Treasury bonds.\nOn March 3, as market jitters intensified, the Fedcut interest ratesto about 1 percent — its first emergency move since the 2008 financial crisis. Some analysts chidedthe Fed for overreacting, and others asked an obvious question: What could the Fed realistically do in the face of a public health threat?\n“We do recognize that a rate cut will not reduce the rate of infection, it won’t fix a broken supply chain,” Chair Jerome H. Powell said at a news conference, explaining that the Fed was doing what it could to keep credit cheap and available.\nBut the health disaster was quickly metastasizing into a market crisis.\nLockdowns in Italy deepened during the second week of March, and oil prices plummeted as a price war raged, sending tremors across stock, currency and commodity markets. Then, something weird started to happen: Instead of snapping up Treasury bonds, arguably the world’s safest investment, investors began trying to sell them.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt — which usually drops when investors seek safe harbor — started to rise on March 10, suggesting investors didn’t want safe assets. They wanted cold, hard cash, and they were trying to sell anything and everything to get it.\nHow It Worsened\nReligion works through churches. Democracy through congresses and parliaments. Capitalism is an idea made real through a series of relationships between debtors and creditors, risk and reward. And by last March 11, those equations were no longer adding up.\nThat was the day the World Health Organizationofficially declaredthe virus outbreak a pandemic, and the morning on which it was becoming clear that a sell-off had spiraled into a panic.\nThe Fed began to roll out measure after measure in a bid to soothe conditions, first offeringhuge temporary infusions of cashto banks, thenaccelerating plansto buy Treasury bonds as that market swung out of whack.\nBut by Friday, March 13, government bond markets were just one of many problems.\nInvestors had been pulling their cash from prime money market mutual funds, where they park it to earn a slightly higher return, for days. But those outflows began to accelerate, prompting the funds themselves to pull back sharply from short-term corporate debt markets as they raced to return money to investors. Banks that serve as market conduits were less willing than usual to buy and hold new securities, even just temporarily. That made it harder to sell everything, be it a company bond or Treasury debt.\nThe Fed’s announcement after its March 15 emergency meeting — that it would slash rates and buy bonds in the most critical markets — was an attempt to get things under control.\nBut Mr. Powell worried that the fix would fall short as short- and long-term debt of all kinds became hard to sell. He approached Andreas Lehnert, director of the Fed’s financial stability division, in the Washington boardroom after the meeting and asked him to prepare emergency lending programs, which the central bank had used in 2008 to serve as a support system to unraveling markets.\nMr. Lehnert went straight to a musty office, where he communicated with Fed technicians, economists and lawyers via instant messenger and video chats — in-person meetings were already restricted — and worked late into the night to get the paperwork ready.\nStarting that Tuesday morning, after another day of market carnage, the central bank began to unveil the steady drip of rescue programs Mr. Lehnert and his colleagues had been working on: one to buy upshort-term corporate debtand another to keep funding flowing to key banks. Shortlybefore midnighton Wednesday, March 18, the Fed announced a program to rescue embattled money market funds by offering to effectively take hard-to-sell securities off their hands.\nBut by the end of that week, everything was a mess.Foreign central banks and corporations were offloading U.S. debt, partly to raise dollars companies needed to pay interest and other bills; hedge funds werenixing a highly leveraged tradethat had broken down as the market went haywire, dumping Treasurys into the choked market.Corporate bondandcommercial real estate debt marketslooked dicey as companies faced credit rating downgrades and as hotels and malls saw business prospects tank.\nThe world’s most powerful central bank was throwing solutions at the markets as rapidly as it could, and it wasn’t enough.\nHow They Fixed It\nThe next weekend, March 21 and 22, was a frenzy. Officials dialed into calls from home, completing still-secret program outlines and negotiating with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s team to establish a layer of insurance to protect the efforts against credit losses. After a tormented 48-hour hustle, the Fed sent out a mammoth news release on Monday morning.\nHeadlineshit newswiresat 8 a.m., well before American markets opened. The Fed promised tobuy an unlimited amountof Treasury debt and to purchase commercial mortgage-backed securities — efforts to save the most central markets.\nThe announcement also pushed the central bank into uncharted territory. The Fed was established in 1913 toserve as a lender of last resortto troubled banks. On March 23, it pledged to funnel help far beyond that financial core. The Fed said it would buy corporate debt and help to get loans to midsize businesses for the first time ever.\nIt finally worked. The dash for cash turned around starting that day.\nThe March 23 efforts took an approach that Mr. Lehnert referred to internally as “covering the waterfront.” Fed economists had discerned which capital marketswere tied to huge numbers of jobsand made sure that every one of them had a Fed support program.\nOn April 9, officials put final pieces of the strategy into play. Backed by a huge pot of insurance money from a rescue package just passed by Congress — lawmakers had handed the Treasury up to$454 billion— they announced that they would expand already-announced efforts and set up another to help funnel credit to states and big cities.\nThe Fed’s 2008 rescue effort had been widely criticized as a bank bailout. The 2020 redux was to rescue everything.\nThe Fed, along with the Treasury, most likely saved the nation from a crippling financial crisis that would have made it harder for businesses to survive, rebound and rehire, intensifying the economic damage the coronavirus went on to inflict. Many of the programs have since ended or are scheduled to do so, and markets are functioning fine.\nBut there’s no guarantee that the calm will prove permanent.\n“The financial system remains vulnerable” to a repeat of last March’s sweeping disaster as “the underlying structures and mechanisms that gave rise to the turmoil are still in place,” the Financial Stability Board, a global oversight body, wrote in a meltdownpost-mortem.\nWhat Comes Next\nThe question policymakers and lawmakers are now grappling with is how to fix those vulnerabilities, which could portend problems for the Treasury market and money market funds if investors get seriously spooked again.\nThe Fed’s rescue ramps up the urgency to safeguard the system. Central bankers set a precedent by saving previously untouched markets, raising the possibility that investors will take risks, assuming the central bank will always step in if things get bad enough.\nThere’s some bipartisan appetite for reform: Trump-era regulators began a review of money markets, and Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen has said she will focus on financial oversight. But change won’t be easy. Protests in the street helped to galvanize financial reform after 2008. There is little popular outrage over the March 2020 meltdown, both because it was set off by a health crisis — not bad banker behavior — and because it was resolved quickly.\nIndustry playersare already mobilizing a lobbying effort, and they may find allies in resisting regulation, including among lawmakers.\n“I would point out that money market funds have been remarkably stable and successful,” Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, said during aJan. 19 hearing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329738728,"gmtCreate":1615279209364,"gmtModify":1703486641817,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329738728","repostId":"1183729076","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183729076","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615278840,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183729076?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airbnb, Lyft and Other Stocks Set to Benefit From a Consumer Spending Boom<blockquote>Airbnb、Lyft和其他股票将受益于消费者支出热潮</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183729076","media":"Barrons","summary":"The strongest consumer stock backdrop in decades may be around the corner and there are plenty of st","content":"<p>The strongest consumer stock backdrop in decades may be around the corner and there are plenty of stocks well positioned to benefit, according to Jefferies analysts.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师表示，几十年来最强劲的消费股背景可能即将到来，而且许多股票都处于有利地位，可以受益。</blockquote></p><p> A surge in personal income, alongside the reopening of the economy will “unleash substantial pent-up demand” in service sector consumption, said chief economist Aneta Markowska in a note on Sunday. She projected personal consumption expenditure (PCE)—a measure of consumer spending—to grow 7% this year and 4.1% in 2022. That assumes average PCE growth of more than 4% for eight consecutive quarters for the time since the 1990s.Stimulus and pent-up demandwould indicate strong spending at the high and low ends, she added.</p><p><blockquote>首席经济学家Aneta Markowska在周日的一份报告中表示，个人收入的激增以及经济的重新开放将“释放服务业消费中被压抑的大量需求”。她预计个人消费支出(PCE)（衡量消费者支出的指标）今年将增长7%，2022年将增长4.1%。这是假设自20世纪90年代以来连续八个季度平均PCE增长率超过4%。她补充说，刺激和被压抑的需求将表明高端和低端的支出强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analysts covering a number of sectors used Markowska’s estimates to pick stocks most exposed to such a surge in consumption.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)涵盖多个行业的分析师利用Markowska的估计来挑选受消费激增影响最大的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Equity analyst Brent Thill said ride-sharing companyLyftwas one of his top reopening plays for 2021, as people return to bars, restaurants and other hospitality venues. He noted that Lyft shifted focus to its cost structure during the Covid-19 pandemic, which should “produce outsized leverage” as revenues rebound. He projected a return to pre-pandemic revenue levels by the fourth quarter, rating the stock a buy with a target price of $75 and an upside target of $85.</p><p><blockquote>股票分析师布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Thill)表示，随着人们重返酒吧、餐馆和其他接待场所，拼车公司Lyft是他2021年重新开业的热门公司之一。他指出，Lyft在Covid-19大流行期间将重点转移到其成本结构上，随着收入反弹，这应该会“产生巨大的杠杆作用”。他预计到第四季度收入将恢复到大流行前的水平，并将该股评级为买入，目标价为75美元，上行目标为85美元。</blockquote></p><p> Thill also said online travel names would be among the biggest beneficiaries of the accelerating vaccine rollout and a subsequent travel rebound, pickingAirbnband Booking. He gave Airbnb a buy rating, with a target price of $210 and upside target price of $250, while Booking had a hold rating with an upside target of $2,700.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔还表示，在线旅游公司将成为疫苗加速推出和随后旅游反弹的最大受益者之一，选择AirbnBand Booking。他给予爱彼迎买入评级，目标价210美元，上行目标价250美元，Booking持有评级，上行目标价2700美元。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to airlines, one of the hardest-hit sectors throughout the pandemic, equity analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu saidSouthwest Airlineswas best placed to benefit from pent-up demand in the second half of the year. She said domestic travel restrictions were likely to be lifted before international restrictions, giving the airline an advantage, adding that it was set to “aggressively take market share” from its peers. She rated the stock a buy with an upside target of $80, compared with Friday’s closing price of $56.92.</p><p><blockquote>谈到航空业（整个疫情中受打击最严重的行业之一），股票分析师希拉·卡亚奥格鲁(Sheila Kahyaoglu)表示，西南航空最有可能从下半年被压抑的需求中受益。她表示，国内旅行限制可能会在国际限制之前取消，这将使该航空公司具有优势，并补充说，该公司将从同行那里“积极夺取市场份额”。她将该股评级为买入，上行目标为80美元，上周五收盘价为56.92美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the restaurants and food service sector, analysts Andy Barish and Alexander Slagle said the full-service segment was likely to benefit the most from the recovery, with pent-up demand for food outside of the home emerging as a powerful driver. They highlightedOutback SteakhouseownerBloomin’ Brandsand Chili’s ownerBrinkeras two buy-rated stocks to watch.</p><p><blockquote>在餐馆和食品服务行业，分析师安迪·巴里什（Andy Barish）和亚历山大·斯拉格（Alexander Slagle）表示，全方位服务领域可能从复苏中受益最多，被压抑的家庭以外食品需求成为强大的驱动力。他们重点介绍了Outback牛排餐厅老板Bloomin'Brands和Chili's老板Brinkeras两只值得关注的买入评级股票。</blockquote></p><p> In the food sector itself, analyst Rob Dickerson said&nbsp;Beyond Meat,J&amp;J Snack Foods&nbsp;and&nbsp;Lamb Westonhad the most potential upside due to its exposure to the food service channel, but he rated all three stocks ‘hold’.</p><p><blockquote>在食品行业本身，分析师Rob Dickerson表示，Beyond Meat、强生休闲食品和Lamb Weston由于涉足食品服务渠道而具有最大的潜在上涨空间，但他将这三只股票评级为“持有”。</blockquote></p><p> The report also selects a host of retail names, including home improvement storesLowe’sandHome Depot,and major retailers such asKohl’sandWalmartas foot traffic picks up and spending increases.</p><p><blockquote>该报告还选择了许多零售商，包括家装商店Lowe’s和Home Depot，以及主要零售商，如Kohl’s和Walmartas，客流量增加，支出增加。</blockquote></p><p> Value-orientated names in the specialty retail industry, such asDollar General,BurlingtonandFive Belowwere also mentioned, whileCaesars EntertainmentandSix Flagswere preferred in the gaming and leisure sector.</p><p><blockquote>还提到了专业零售行业中以价值为导向的公司，例如Dollar General、Burlington和Five Belows，而游戏和休闲行业中更受青睐的是凯撒娱乐和六旗。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbnb, Lyft and Other Stocks Set to Benefit From a Consumer Spending Boom<blockquote>Airbnb、Lyft和其他股票将受益于消费者支出热潮</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbnb, Lyft and Other Stocks Set to Benefit From a Consumer Spending Boom<blockquote>Airbnb、Lyft和其他股票将受益于消费者支出热潮</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-09 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The strongest consumer stock backdrop in decades may be around the corner and there are plenty of stocks well positioned to benefit, according to Jefferies analysts.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师表示，几十年来最强劲的消费股背景可能即将到来，而且许多股票都处于有利地位，可以受益。</blockquote></p><p> A surge in personal income, alongside the reopening of the economy will “unleash substantial pent-up demand” in service sector consumption, said chief economist Aneta Markowska in a note on Sunday. She projected personal consumption expenditure (PCE)—a measure of consumer spending—to grow 7% this year and 4.1% in 2022. That assumes average PCE growth of more than 4% for eight consecutive quarters for the time since the 1990s.Stimulus and pent-up demandwould indicate strong spending at the high and low ends, she added.</p><p><blockquote>首席经济学家Aneta Markowska在周日的一份报告中表示，个人收入的激增以及经济的重新开放将“释放服务业消费中被压抑的大量需求”。她预计个人消费支出(PCE)（衡量消费者支出的指标）今年将增长7%，2022年将增长4.1%。这是假设自20世纪90年代以来连续八个季度平均PCE增长率超过4%。她补充说，刺激和被压抑的需求将表明高端和低端的支出强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analysts covering a number of sectors used Markowska’s estimates to pick stocks most exposed to such a surge in consumption.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)涵盖多个行业的分析师利用Markowska的估计来挑选受消费激增影响最大的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Equity analyst Brent Thill said ride-sharing companyLyftwas one of his top reopening plays for 2021, as people return to bars, restaurants and other hospitality venues. He noted that Lyft shifted focus to its cost structure during the Covid-19 pandemic, which should “produce outsized leverage” as revenues rebound. He projected a return to pre-pandemic revenue levels by the fourth quarter, rating the stock a buy with a target price of $75 and an upside target of $85.</p><p><blockquote>股票分析师布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Thill)表示，随着人们重返酒吧、餐馆和其他接待场所，拼车公司Lyft是他2021年重新开业的热门公司之一。他指出，Lyft在Covid-19大流行期间将重点转移到其成本结构上，随着收入反弹，这应该会“产生巨大的杠杆作用”。他预计到第四季度收入将恢复到大流行前的水平，并将该股评级为买入，目标价为75美元，上行目标为85美元。</blockquote></p><p> Thill also said online travel names would be among the biggest beneficiaries of the accelerating vaccine rollout and a subsequent travel rebound, pickingAirbnband Booking. He gave Airbnb a buy rating, with a target price of $210 and upside target price of $250, while Booking had a hold rating with an upside target of $2,700.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔还表示，在线旅游公司将成为疫苗加速推出和随后旅游反弹的最大受益者之一，选择AirbnBand Booking。他给予爱彼迎买入评级，目标价210美元，上行目标价250美元，Booking持有评级，上行目标价2700美元。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to airlines, one of the hardest-hit sectors throughout the pandemic, equity analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu saidSouthwest Airlineswas best placed to benefit from pent-up demand in the second half of the year. She said domestic travel restrictions were likely to be lifted before international restrictions, giving the airline an advantage, adding that it was set to “aggressively take market share” from its peers. She rated the stock a buy with an upside target of $80, compared with Friday’s closing price of $56.92.</p><p><blockquote>谈到航空业（整个疫情中受打击最严重的行业之一），股票分析师希拉·卡亚奥格鲁(Sheila Kahyaoglu)表示，西南航空最有可能从下半年被压抑的需求中受益。她表示，国内旅行限制可能会在国际限制之前取消，这将使该航空公司具有优势，并补充说，该公司将从同行那里“积极夺取市场份额”。她将该股评级为买入，上行目标为80美元，上周五收盘价为56.92美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the restaurants and food service sector, analysts Andy Barish and Alexander Slagle said the full-service segment was likely to benefit the most from the recovery, with pent-up demand for food outside of the home emerging as a powerful driver. They highlightedOutback SteakhouseownerBloomin’ Brandsand Chili’s ownerBrinkeras two buy-rated stocks to watch.</p><p><blockquote>在餐馆和食品服务行业，分析师安迪·巴里什（Andy Barish）和亚历山大·斯拉格（Alexander Slagle）表示，全方位服务领域可能从复苏中受益最多，被压抑的家庭以外食品需求成为强大的驱动力。他们重点介绍了Outback牛排餐厅老板Bloomin'Brands和Chili's老板Brinkeras两只值得关注的买入评级股票。</blockquote></p><p> In the food sector itself, analyst Rob Dickerson said&nbsp;Beyond Meat,J&amp;J Snack Foods&nbsp;and&nbsp;Lamb Westonhad the most potential upside due to its exposure to the food service channel, but he rated all three stocks ‘hold’.</p><p><blockquote>在食品行业本身，分析师Rob Dickerson表示，Beyond Meat、强生休闲食品和Lamb Weston由于涉足食品服务渠道而具有最大的潜在上涨空间，但他将这三只股票评级为“持有”。</blockquote></p><p> The report also selects a host of retail names, including home improvement storesLowe’sandHome Depot,and major retailers such asKohl’sandWalmartas foot traffic picks up and spending increases.</p><p><blockquote>该报告还选择了许多零售商，包括家装商店Lowe’s和Home Depot，以及主要零售商，如Kohl’s和Walmartas，客流量增加，支出增加。</blockquote></p><p> Value-orientated names in the specialty retail industry, such asDollar General,BurlingtonandFive Belowwere also mentioned, whileCaesars EntertainmentandSix Flagswere preferred in the gaming and leisure sector.</p><p><blockquote>还提到了专业零售行业中以价值为导向的公司，例如Dollar General、Burlington和Five Belows，而游戏和休闲行业中更受青睐的是凯撒娱乐和六旗。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/airbnb-lyft-and-other-stocks-set-to-benefit-from-a-consumer-spending-boom-51615224005?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎","LYFT":"Lyft, Inc.","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","LUV":"西南航空"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/airbnb-lyft-and-other-stocks-set-to-benefit-from-a-consumer-spending-boom-51615224005?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183729076","content_text":"The strongest consumer stock backdrop in decades may be around the corner and there are plenty of stocks well positioned to benefit, according to Jefferies analysts.\nA surge in personal income, alongside the reopening of the economy will “unleash substantial pent-up demand” in service sector consumption, said chief economist Aneta Markowska in a note on Sunday. She projected personal consumption expenditure (PCE)—a measure of consumer spending—to grow 7% this year and 4.1% in 2022. That assumes average PCE growth of more than 4% for eight consecutive quarters for the time since the 1990s.Stimulus and pent-up demandwould indicate strong spending at the high and low ends, she added.\nJefferies analysts covering a number of sectors used Markowska’s estimates to pick stocks most exposed to such a surge in consumption.\nEquity analyst Brent Thill said ride-sharing companyLyftwas one of his top reopening plays for 2021, as people return to bars, restaurants and other hospitality venues. He noted that Lyft shifted focus to its cost structure during the Covid-19 pandemic, which should “produce outsized leverage” as revenues rebound. He projected a return to pre-pandemic revenue levels by the fourth quarter, rating the stock a buy with a target price of $75 and an upside target of $85.\nThill also said online travel names would be among the biggest beneficiaries of the accelerating vaccine rollout and a subsequent travel rebound, pickingAirbnband Booking. He gave Airbnb a buy rating, with a target price of $210 and upside target price of $250, while Booking had a hold rating with an upside target of $2,700.\nWhen it comes to airlines, one of the hardest-hit sectors throughout the pandemic, equity analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu saidSouthwest Airlineswas best placed to benefit from pent-up demand in the second half of the year. She said domestic travel restrictions were likely to be lifted before international restrictions, giving the airline an advantage, adding that it was set to “aggressively take market share” from its peers. She rated the stock a buy with an upside target of $80, compared with Friday’s closing price of $56.92.\nIn the restaurants and food service sector, analysts Andy Barish and Alexander Slagle said the full-service segment was likely to benefit the most from the recovery, with pent-up demand for food outside of the home emerging as a powerful driver. They highlightedOutback SteakhouseownerBloomin’ Brandsand Chili’s ownerBrinkeras two buy-rated stocks to watch.\nIn the food sector itself, analyst Rob Dickerson said Beyond Meat,J&J Snack Foods and Lamb Westonhad the most potential upside due to its exposure to the food service channel, but he rated all three stocks ‘hold’.\nThe report also selects a host of retail names, including home improvement storesLowe’sandHome Depot,and major retailers such asKohl’sandWalmartas foot traffic picks up and spending increases.\nValue-orientated names in the specialty retail industry, such asDollar General,BurlingtonandFive Belowwere also mentioned, whileCaesars EntertainmentandSix Flagswere preferred in the gaming and leisure sector.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LYFT":0.9,"BYND":0.9,"ABNB":0.9,"LUV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367797420,"gmtCreate":1614965770060,"gmtModify":1703483794713,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367797420","repostId":"2117639609","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136278963,"gmtCreate":1622024437552,"gmtModify":1634184573053,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136278963","repostId":"1164246696","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350121295,"gmtCreate":1616167869517,"gmtModify":1634526886535,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350121295","repostId":"1199154789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199154789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616164372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199154789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199154789","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio  exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on ","content":"<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><p><blockquote>正如本文所暗示和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率(SLR)豁免如期于3月31日（规则变更一周年）到期。</blockquote></p><p>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于新冠肺炎事件，这一临时变化是为了为存款机构向家庭和企业提供信贷提供灵活性。这一结果是前纽约联储大师Zoltan Pozsar（再次）正确预测的结果，他跟随FOMC表示，“事实上，美联储实际上是先发制人地做出了这一调整——目前没有使用o/n RRP工具，因此没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率尚未为负——<b>暗示美联储正在为SLR豁免的结束“铺路”</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><p><blockquote>美联储深知这将是市场的一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，并指出，虽然SLR特殊待遇将于3月31日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众就几项潜在的SLR修改发表评论”。此外，”<b>随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决SLR当前的设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力</b>”——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新引入SLR：</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。<b>然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。<b>监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响</i>：</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响<b>SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储<b>“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四女巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 22:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><p><blockquote>正如本文所暗示和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率(SLR)豁免如期于3月31日（规则变更一周年）到期。</blockquote></p><p>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于新冠肺炎事件，这一临时变化是为了为存款机构向家庭和企业提供信贷提供灵活性。这一结果是前纽约联储大师Zoltan Pozsar（再次）正确预测的结果，他跟随FOMC表示，“事实上，美联储实际上是先发制人地做出了这一调整——目前没有使用o/n RRP工具，因此没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率尚未为负——<b>暗示美联储正在为SLR豁免的结束“铺路”</b>.\"</blockquote></p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><p><blockquote>美联储深知这将是市场的一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，并指出，虽然SLR特殊待遇将于3月31日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众就几项潜在的SLR修改发表评论”。此外，”<b>随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决SLR当前的设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力</b>”——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新引入SLR：</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。<b>此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。</b>为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。<b>然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。</b>该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，<b>在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><p><blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，<b>银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。<b>监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。</b>虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道<b>“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</b></blockquote></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</b></blockquote></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><p><blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“<i>最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响</i>：</blockquote></p><p>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p><blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。<b>由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。</b>换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><p><blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote></p><p><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote><u><b>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b><u><b>4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆</b></u><b>对银行利率的影响前端利率</b>回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，<b>这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><p><blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote></p><p>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p><blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote></p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p><blockquote>** *</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p><blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响<b>SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”</b>.</blockquote></p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p><blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储<b>“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</b></blockquote></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四女巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199154789","content_text":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...Bond yields spiked...... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")....... slumped.In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).So what happens next?Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.* *  *Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322129674,"gmtCreate":1615784702898,"gmtModify":1703492910267,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322129674","repostId":"1167368413","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328705845,"gmtCreate":1615557699287,"gmtModify":1703490880063,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328705845","repostId":"2118950919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110413653,"gmtCreate":1622479889172,"gmtModify":1634101191334,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110413653","repostId":"2139453630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131214101,"gmtCreate":1621863007503,"gmtModify":1634186011986,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131214101","repostId":"2137213077","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363578265,"gmtCreate":1614159521757,"gmtModify":1634550949825,"author":{"id":"3570709291573644","authorId":"3570709291573644","name":"Jkcubz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454005a90377851a88dcde78f7b9fc15","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570709291573644","idStr":"3570709291573644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363578265","repostId":"1186371880","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}