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2021-10-15

Ok

Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>

2021-09-01

Ok

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2021-08-22

Ok

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2021-08-22

Ok

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2021-07-09

Ok

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2021-07-09

Ok

S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote>

2021-06-29

Ok

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2021-06-18

Ok

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2021-06-11

I am a truly value investor

2021-06-09

Long term or short term investment better?

2021-06-08

Choose your best 5 stocks in your portfolio and reason.

2021-06-07

Ok

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2021-06-06

What is the most valuable stock at this moment to hold for 20 years?

2021-06-05

Good action Facebook!

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2021-06-04

Finance revolution started.

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2021-06-03

definitely no

Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote>

2021-06-03

Elon musk 👍

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2021-06-02

Long hold blue chip stock

2021-06-02

Bull market

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2021-05-28

👍

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21:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176037392","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales","content":"<p>Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.</p><p><blockquote>由于有报道称零部件短缺可能影响iPhone 13的销售，苹果股价遭受重创。这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不必太担心。</blockquote></p><p> The recent news has not been very favorable for Apple&nbsp;and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.</p><p><blockquote>最近的消息对苹果及其股票来说并不是很有利。据彭博社报道，iPhone 13正面临供应链问题。零部件短缺可能导致今年苹果设备产量下降1000万台。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布后，苹果股价并未暴跌，但再次跌破每股140美元——这是自2021年7月上旬以来从未见过的水平。然而，这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不应该担心最近涉及iPhone的事态发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c2295e5c2fd9f6f41f8a86c0a4c8ce\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone 13 new model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone 13新款。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>This seems familiar…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这似乎很熟悉……</b></blockquote></p><p> First, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?</p><p><blockquote>首先，读者必须了解苹果股票投资者和交易者有不同类型。许多人购买股票是希望获得短期收益，而另一些人则长期押注股票。事实上，短线交易者可能有充分的理由感到担忧。如果苹果下个季度的iPhone销量未达到预期，并且该股因此做出负面反应怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> But long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that&nbsp;demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>但长期持有者可能会进一步关注苹果未来的业务基本面。有足够多的报道表明，对iPhone 13的需求一直很高，可能甚至比对已经成功的iPhone 12的需求还要好。</blockquote></p><p> If enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>如果对一种产品有足够的需求，有理由认为暂时的供应链问题只会导致销售从一个时期转移到下一个时期。这正是2020年发生的情况，当时COVID-19危机导致iPhone 12在假期晚些时候亮相并推出。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了2019财年和2020财年以及今年上半年的iPhone销量增长情况。请注意，由于生产延迟，2019年痛苦的收入下降似乎创造了去年第四财季未得到满足的被压抑需求。当这些问题最终得到解决时，2021财年的收入猛增。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f351ccb2a56f417bb16d8f0246fcc4\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2019-2021年iPhone增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Average iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.</p><p><blockquote>从2020财年开始到现在，iPhone的平均销量增长了14%，尽管每个季度的收入都非常不稳定。同期，尽管去年存在供应链问题，苹果股价仍上涨了90%。</blockquote></p><p> Could the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.</p><p><blockquote>当前的零部件短缺会导致收入再次在日历上发生变化吗？我认为这是合理的，如果不太可能的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple is a good place to hide</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果是个藏身的好地方</b></blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，所谓的生产延误并不是苹果特有的问题。今年从大流行中复苏的零部件短缺已被充分记录，并且似乎正在全面影响消费技术供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.</p><p><blockquote>当然，投资者可以选择根本不投资科技行业，因为担心随着全球经济继续反弹，整个行业的表现将不佳。但如果要在该领域投入资金，我认为苹果是一个比平均水平更安全的选择，因为它拥有一流的供应链管理。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, I explained in more detail that Apple&nbsp;has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.</p><p><blockquote>去年，我更详细地解释了苹果在首席执行官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）的领导下已成为“库存管理之王”，蒂姆·库克也是库比蒂诺公司的前首席运营官。因此，如果我押注一家公司能很好地处理供应链问题，它可能是最具购买力且在管理库存方面拥有良好记录的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 21:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.</p><p><blockquote>由于有报道称零部件短缺可能影响iPhone 13的销售，苹果股价遭受重创。这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不必太担心。</blockquote></p><p> The recent news has not been very favorable for Apple&nbsp;and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.</p><p><blockquote>最近的消息对苹果及其股票来说并不是很有利。据彭博社报道，iPhone 13正面临供应链问题。零部件短缺可能导致今年苹果设备产量下降1000万台。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布后，苹果股价并未暴跌，但再次跌破每股140美元——这是自2021年7月上旬以来从未见过的水平。然而，这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不应该担心最近涉及iPhone的事态发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c2295e5c2fd9f6f41f8a86c0a4c8ce\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone 13 new model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone 13新款。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>This seems familiar…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这似乎很熟悉……</b></blockquote></p><p> First, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?</p><p><blockquote>首先，读者必须了解苹果股票投资者和交易者有不同类型。许多人购买股票是希望获得短期收益，而另一些人则长期押注股票。事实上，短线交易者可能有充分的理由感到担忧。如果苹果下个季度的iPhone销量未达到预期，并且该股因此做出负面反应怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> But long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that&nbsp;demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>但长期持有者可能会进一步关注苹果未来的业务基本面。有足够多的报道表明，对iPhone 13的需求一直很高，可能甚至比对已经成功的iPhone 12的需求还要好。</blockquote></p><p> If enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>如果对一种产品有足够的需求，有理由认为暂时的供应链问题只会导致销售从一个时期转移到下一个时期。这正是2020年发生的情况，当时COVID-19危机导致iPhone 12在假期晚些时候亮相并推出。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了2019财年和2020财年以及今年上半年的iPhone销量增长情况。请注意，由于生产延迟，2019年痛苦的收入下降似乎创造了去年第四财季未得到满足的被压抑需求。当这些问题最终得到解决时，2021财年的收入猛增。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f351ccb2a56f417bb16d8f0246fcc4\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2019-2021年iPhone增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Average iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.</p><p><blockquote>从2020财年开始到现在，iPhone的平均销量增长了14%，尽管每个季度的收入都非常不稳定。同期，尽管去年存在供应链问题，苹果股价仍上涨了90%。</blockquote></p><p> Could the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.</p><p><blockquote>当前的零部件短缺会导致收入再次在日历上发生变化吗？我认为这是合理的，如果不太可能的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple is a good place to hide</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果是个藏身的好地方</b></blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，所谓的生产延误并不是苹果特有的问题。今年从大流行中复苏的零部件短缺已被充分记录，并且似乎正在全面影响消费技术供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.</p><p><blockquote>当然，投资者可以选择根本不投资科技行业，因为担心随着全球经济继续反弹，整个行业的表现将不佳。但如果要在该领域投入资金，我认为苹果是一个比平均水平更安全的选择，因为它拥有一流的供应链管理。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, I explained in more detail that Apple&nbsp;has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.</p><p><blockquote>去年，我更详细地解释了苹果在首席执行官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）的领导下已成为“库存管理之王”，蒂姆·库克也是库比蒂诺公司的前首席运营官。因此，如果我押注一家公司能很好地处理供应链问题，它可能是最具购买力且在管理库存方面拥有良好记录的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/why-iphone-supply-hiccup-is-not-a-problem-for-apple-stock\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/why-iphone-supply-hiccup-is-not-a-problem-for-apple-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176037392","content_text":"Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.\nThe recent news has not been very favorable for Apple and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.\nApple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.\nFigure 1: iPhone 13 new model.\nThis seems familiar…\nFirst, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?\nBut long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.\nIf enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.\nThe chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.\nFigure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.\nAverage iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.\nCould the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.\nApple is a good place to hide\nTo be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.\nOf course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.\nLast year, I explained in more detail that Apple has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":818766122,"gmtCreate":1630450992066,"gmtModify":1631889863535,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818766122","repostId":"1198196473","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832277772,"gmtCreate":1629646876696,"gmtModify":1631889863543,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832277772","repostId":"2161743804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832277586,"gmtCreate":1629646861945,"gmtModify":1631889863546,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832277586","repostId":"1133515985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143170284,"gmtCreate":1625785500948,"gmtModify":1631889863540,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143170284","repostId":"1153646457","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143144771,"gmtCreate":1625785410693,"gmtModify":1631889863547,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143144771","repostId":"1193960545","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193960545","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625699849,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193960545?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 07:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193960545","media":"Reuters","summary":"Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes\nDow up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq ","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes</li>  <li>Dow up 0.3%, S&amp;P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.01%</li> </ul> NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储热衷于“做好准备”对通胀采取行动——会议纪要</li><li>道指涨0.3%，标普500涨0.3%，纳斯达克涨0.01%</li></ul>路透纽约7月7日-美国股市周三收高，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘纪录高位，此前美联储上次会议纪要显示官员可能尚未准备好采取紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> According to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery \"was generally seen as not having yet been met,\" but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized.</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储6月政策会议纪要，美联储官员认为经济复苏“普遍认为尚未取得实质性进一步进展”，但一致认为，如果通胀或其他风险成为现实，他们应该做好采取行动的准备。</blockquote></p><p> \"I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔瑟姆联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米伦(Brad McMillan)表示：“我认为这实际上是一套鸽派言论，因为作为一个群体，他们对局势没有足够的确定性，无法做出任何改变。”，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议纪要公布后，美国国债收益率小幅走低，而股市大多小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要反映了美联储在应对新的通胀风险但失业率仍然相对较高的问题上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> After its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的会议和声明之后，投资者开始预计美联储将比之前预期更快地采取紧缩行动。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一直担心通胀，过去几个交易日投资者在与经济相关的价值股和成长型股票之间切换。</blockquote></p><p> Both growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&amp;P 500 sector gains.</p><p><blockquote>成长股(.RLG)和价值股(.RLV)周三均上涨，而工业股(.SPLRCI)和材料股(.SPLRCM)领涨标普500板块。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82724f48859f601746f387b53e8bf71\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global(DIDI.N), Tencent(0700.HK)and Alibaba(9988.HK)for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval.read more</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数(.DJI)上涨104.42点，涨幅0.3%，至34,681.79点，标普500(.SPX)上涨14.59点，涨幅0.34%，至4,358.13点，纳斯达克综合指数(.IXIC)上涨1.42点，涨幅0.01%，至14,665.06点。中国市场监管机构表示，已对滴滴出行（DIDI.N）、腾讯控股（0700.HK）和阿里巴巴-SW（9988.HK）等多家互联网公司处以罚款，原因是其未能将早期并购交易上报审批。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> U.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在美国上市的股价下跌4.6%，周二跌幅接近20%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.02比1；在纳斯达克，1.92比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下71个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得84个新高和121个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为100.4亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote></title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 07:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes</li>  <li>Dow up 0.3%, S&amp;P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.01%</li> </ul> NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储热衷于“做好准备”对通胀采取行动——会议纪要</li><li>道指涨0.3%，标普500涨0.3%，纳斯达克涨0.01%</li></ul>路透纽约7月7日-美国股市周三收高，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘纪录高位，此前美联储上次会议纪要显示官员可能尚未准备好采取紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> According to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery \"was generally seen as not having yet been met,\" but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized.</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储6月政策会议纪要，美联储官员认为经济复苏“普遍认为尚未取得实质性进一步进展”，但一致认为，如果通胀或其他风险成为现实，他们应该做好采取行动的准备。</blockquote></p><p> \"I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔瑟姆联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米伦(Brad McMillan)表示：“我认为这实际上是一套鸽派言论，因为作为一个群体，他们对局势没有足够的确定性，无法做出任何改变。”，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议纪要公布后，美国国债收益率小幅走低，而股市大多小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要反映了美联储在应对新的通胀风险但失业率仍然相对较高的问题上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> After its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的会议和声明之后，投资者开始预计美联储将比之前预期更快地采取紧缩行动。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一直担心通胀，过去几个交易日投资者在与经济相关的价值股和成长型股票之间切换。</blockquote></p><p> Both growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&amp;P 500 sector gains.</p><p><blockquote>成长股(.RLG)和价值股(.RLV)周三均上涨，而工业股(.SPLRCI)和材料股(.SPLRCM)领涨标普500板块。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82724f48859f601746f387b53e8bf71\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global(DIDI.N), Tencent(0700.HK)and Alibaba(9988.HK)for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval.read more</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数(.DJI)上涨104.42点，涨幅0.3%，至34,681.79点，标普500(.SPX)上涨14.59点，涨幅0.34%，至4,358.13点，纳斯达克综合指数(.IXIC)上涨1.42点，涨幅0.01%，至14,665.06点。中国市场监管机构表示，已对滴滴出行（DIDI.N）、腾讯控股（0700.HK）和阿里巴巴-SW（9988.HK）等多家互联网公司处以罚款，原因是其未能将早期并购交易上报审批。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> U.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在美国上市的股价下跌4.6%，周二跌幅接近20%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.02比1；在纳斯达克，1.92比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下71个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得84个新高和121个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为100.4亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-post-record-closing-highs-after-fed-minutes-2021-07-07/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.\nTreasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.\nThe minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.\nAfter its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.\nWall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.\nBoth growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&P 500 sector gains.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq 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better?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180140390","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114768854,"gmtCreate":1623106900878,"gmtModify":1631889863559,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Choose your best 5 stocks in your portfolio&nbsp;and reason.","listText":"Choose your best 5 stocks in your portfolio&nbsp;and reason.","text":"Choose your best 5 stocks in your portfolio and reason.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114768854","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115430236,"gmtCreate":1623026218625,"gmtModify":1634096178207,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115430236","repostId":"2141281332","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115158954,"gmtCreate":1622961864478,"gmtModify":1634096536086,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What is the most valuable stock at this moment to hold for 20 years?","listText":"What is the most valuable stock at this moment to hold for 20 years?","text":"What is the most valuable stock at this moment to hold for 20 years?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115158954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112124639,"gmtCreate":1622856903221,"gmtModify":1634097347337,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good action Facebook!","listText":"Good action Facebook!","text":"Good action Facebook!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112124639","repostId":"1137938771","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116397056,"gmtCreate":1622773049075,"gmtModify":1634098151089,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finance revolution started.","listText":"Finance revolution started.","text":"Finance revolution started.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116397056","repostId":"1128349956","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118033285,"gmtCreate":1622706966047,"gmtModify":1634098949134,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"definitely no","listText":"definitely no","text":"definitely no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118033285","repostId":"1160407593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160407593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622706069,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160407593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 15:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160407593","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.Apple  bulls have to be frus","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li>  <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li>  <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;significantly elevated&nbsp;to historical levels.</li>  <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第二季度盈利预期令人震惊，但苹果股价却出现逆转，表现逊于大盘。</li><li>我认为华尔街对苹果2022财年的预期过高，可能是近期疲软的原因之一。</li><li>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍显着高于历史水平。</li><li>我严重怀疑iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售能否在明年继续目前的火爆销售速度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：PeskyMonkey/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its&nbsp;Q1 holiday quarter&nbsp;and&nbsp;Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The&nbsp;thesis from my last article&nbsp;on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）的多头不得不感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假期季度和第二季度1月至3月季度的盈利均大幅超出预期，但股价却毫无进展。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19封锁、政府施舍和5G的推出都最终将苹果的需求拉入了2021财年，这得到了New Street分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been&nbsp;tracking iPhone sales in China&nbsp;and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预言天要塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在做模特<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿部之间，而市场普遍预期为2.34亿部。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不这么认为，特别是因为SA撰稿人Paulo Santos一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销售情况，并看到从白热化的开局到今年年初明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac的类似放缓还需要几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有意义吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，别有用心。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接持有苹果，并且仍然通过我持有的Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我无论如何都不反对它，我只是按照我所看到的来称呼它——而且我认为估值非常过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;<b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然保持不变<b>显著升高</b>-50%或更多-从他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的预期收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预测增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性预测假设苹果将在2022财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年的情况类似，营业利润从2014财年至2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年适度下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果2021财年可能会在很长一段时间内达到销售和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管取得了所有这些成功，苹果的营业收入在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月内打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的大力帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有此次减税，2020年每股收益将约为2.88美元，而不是3.28美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火爆的销售表现不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我认为iPad的销量就是一个例证。在过去的几年里，销量一直保持稳定，直到去年爆炸式增长57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPads？我选后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论——苹果仍值得卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师不失时机地提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前业绩的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我不像大多数人那样看好5G超级周期。我相信创新者和早期采用者会急于升级，但大多数大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自身成功的受害者——最近的iPhones都很好，升级到更新的手机不太引人注目，因为4G对大多数人来说“足够好”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们今年前两个季度的收入已经为3.08美元，目前预计整个财年的收入为5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，并预计每股收益将接近4-4.50美元，远低于目前预期的5.30美元。这将使市盈率回到30以上，并出现负增长率。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试100美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，但定价太高了。估值总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 15:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li>  <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li>  <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;significantly elevated&nbsp;to historical levels.</li>  <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第二季度盈利预期令人震惊，但苹果股价却出现逆转，表现逊于大盘。</li><li>我认为华尔街对苹果2022财年的预期过高，可能是近期疲软的原因之一。</li><li>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍显着高于历史水平。</li><li>我严重怀疑iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售能否在明年继续目前的火爆销售速度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：PeskyMonkey/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its&nbsp;Q1 holiday quarter&nbsp;and&nbsp;Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The&nbsp;thesis from my last article&nbsp;on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）的多头不得不感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假期季度和第二季度1月至3月季度的盈利均大幅超出预期，但股价却毫无进展。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19封锁、政府施舍和5G的推出都最终将苹果的需求拉入了2021财年，这得到了New Street分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been&nbsp;tracking iPhone sales in China&nbsp;and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预言天要塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在做模特<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿部之间，而市场普遍预期为2.34亿部。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不这么认为，特别是因为SA撰稿人Paulo Santos一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销售情况，并看到从白热化的开局到今年年初明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac的类似放缓还需要几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有意义吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，别有用心。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接持有苹果，并且仍然通过我持有的Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我无论如何都不反对它，我只是按照我所看到的来称呼它——而且我认为估值非常过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;<b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然保持不变<b>显著升高</b>-50%或更多-从他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的预期收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预测增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性预测假设苹果将在2022财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年的情况类似，营业利润从2014财年至2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年适度下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果2021财年可能会在很长一段时间内达到销售和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管取得了所有这些成功，苹果的营业收入在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月内打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的大力帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有此次减税，2020年每股收益将约为2.88美元，而不是3.28美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火爆的销售表现不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我认为iPad的销量就是一个例证。在过去的几年里，销量一直保持稳定，直到去年爆炸式增长57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPads？我选后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论——苹果仍值得卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师不失时机地提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前业绩的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我不像大多数人那样看好5G超级周期。我相信创新者和早期采用者会急于升级，但大多数大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自身成功的受害者——最近的iPhones都很好，升级到更新的手机不太引人注目，因为4G对大多数人来说“足够好”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们今年前两个季度的收入已经为3.08美元，目前预计整个财年的收入为5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，并预计每股收益将接近4-4.50美元，远低于目前预期的5.30美元。这将使市盈率回到30以上，并出现负增长率。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试100美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，但定价太高了。估值总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160407593","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.\nI believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.\nI have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.\n\nPhoto by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nApple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.\n\nNew Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modelingiPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.\nWhat is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?\nFrom the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.\nData by YCharts\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated- 50% or more - from their historic norms.\n\nThis is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.\nBut these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.\nApple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time\nSince 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.\nYet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)\n\nUltimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.\n\nDid iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.\nConclusion - Apple is still a Sell\nWall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.\nAdmittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.\n\nApple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.\nApple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111451657,"gmtCreate":1622694721879,"gmtModify":1634099053733,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571214732315276","idStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Elon musk 👍","listText":"Elon musk 👍","text":"Elon musk 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action Facebook!","listText":"Good action Facebook!","text":"Good action Facebook!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112124639","repostId":"1137938771","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114768854,"gmtCreate":1623106900878,"gmtModify":1631889863559,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571214732315276","authorIdStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Choose your best 5 stocks in your portfolio&nbsp;and reason.","listText":"Choose your best 5 stocks in your portfolio&nbsp;and reason.","text":"Choose your best 5 stocks in your portfolio and 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07:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193960545","media":"Reuters","summary":"Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes\nDow up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq ","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes</li>  <li>Dow up 0.3%, S&amp;P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.01%</li> </ul> NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储热衷于“做好准备”对通胀采取行动——会议纪要</li><li>道指涨0.3%，标普500涨0.3%，纳斯达克涨0.01%</li></ul>路透纽约7月7日-美国股市周三收高，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘纪录高位，此前美联储上次会议纪要显示官员可能尚未准备好采取紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> According to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery \"was generally seen as not having yet been met,\" but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized.</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储6月政策会议纪要，美联储官员认为经济复苏“普遍认为尚未取得实质性进一步进展”，但一致认为，如果通胀或其他风险成为现实，他们应该做好采取行动的准备。</blockquote></p><p> \"I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔瑟姆联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米伦(Brad McMillan)表示：“我认为这实际上是一套鸽派言论，因为作为一个群体，他们对局势没有足够的确定性，无法做出任何改变。”，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议纪要公布后，美国国债收益率小幅走低，而股市大多小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要反映了美联储在应对新的通胀风险但失业率仍然相对较高的问题上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> After its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的会议和声明之后，投资者开始预计美联储将比之前预期更快地采取紧缩行动。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一直担心通胀，过去几个交易日投资者在与经济相关的价值股和成长型股票之间切换。</blockquote></p><p> Both growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&amp;P 500 sector gains.</p><p><blockquote>成长股(.RLG)和价值股(.RLV)周三均上涨，而工业股(.SPLRCI)和材料股(.SPLRCM)领涨标普500板块。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82724f48859f601746f387b53e8bf71\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global(DIDI.N), Tencent(0700.HK)and Alibaba(9988.HK)for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval.read more</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数(.DJI)上涨104.42点，涨幅0.3%，至34,681.79点，标普500(.SPX)上涨14.59点，涨幅0.34%，至4,358.13点，纳斯达克综合指数(.IXIC)上涨1.42点，涨幅0.01%，至14,665.06点。中国市场监管机构表示，已对滴滴出行（DIDI.N）、腾讯控股（0700.HK）和阿里巴巴-SW（9988.HK）等多家互联网公司处以罚款，原因是其未能将早期并购交易上报审批。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> U.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在美国上市的股价下跌4.6%，周二跌幅接近20%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.02比1；在纳斯达克，1.92比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下71个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得84个新高和121个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为100.4亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs after Fed minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要后，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 07:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes</li>  <li>Dow up 0.3%, S&amp;P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.01%</li> </ul> NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美联储热衷于“做好准备”对通胀采取行动——会议纪要</li><li>道指涨0.3%，标普500涨0.3%，纳斯达克涨0.01%</li></ul>路透纽约7月7日-美国股市周三收高，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘纪录高位，此前美联储上次会议纪要显示官员可能尚未准备好采取紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> According to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery \"was generally seen as not having yet been met,\" but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized.</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储6月政策会议纪要，美联储官员认为经济复苏“普遍认为尚未取得实质性进一步进展”，但一致认为，如果通胀或其他风险成为现实，他们应该做好采取行动的准备。</blockquote></p><p> \"I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔瑟姆联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米伦(Brad McMillan)表示：“我认为这实际上是一套鸽派言论，因为作为一个群体，他们对局势没有足够的确定性，无法做出任何改变。”，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议纪要公布后，美国国债收益率小幅走低，而股市大多小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>会议纪要反映了美联储在应对新的通胀风险但失业率仍然相对较高的问题上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> After its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的会议和声明之后，投资者开始预计美联储将比之前预期更快地采取紧缩行动。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街一直担心通胀，过去几个交易日投资者在与经济相关的价值股和成长型股票之间切换。</blockquote></p><p> Both growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&amp;P 500 sector gains.</p><p><blockquote>成长股(.RLG)和价值股(.RLV)周三均上涨，而工业股(.SPLRCI)和材料股(.SPLRCM)领涨标普500板块。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&amp;P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b82724f48859f601746f387b53e8bf71\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global(DIDI.N), Tencent(0700.HK)and Alibaba(9988.HK)for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval.read more</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数(.DJI)上涨104.42点，涨幅0.3%，至34,681.79点，标普500(.SPX)上涨14.59点，涨幅0.34%，至4,358.13点，纳斯达克综合指数(.IXIC)上涨1.42点，涨幅0.01%，至14,665.06点。中国市场监管机构表示，已对滴滴出行（DIDI.N）、腾讯控股（0700.HK）和阿里巴巴-SW（9988.HK）等多家互联网公司处以罚款，原因是其未能将早期并购交易上报审批。了解更多</blockquote></p><p> U.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴在美国上市的股价下跌4.6%，周二跌幅接近20%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.02比1；在纳斯达克，1.92比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下71个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得84个新高和121个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为100.4亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为107亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-post-record-closing-highs-after-fed-minutes-2021-07-07/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-post-record-closing-highs-after-fed-minutes-2021-07-07/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193960545","content_text":"Fed keen to be \"well positioned\" to act on inflation - minutes\nDow up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.01%\n\nNEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched record closing highs after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting indicated officials may not be ready yet to move on tightening policy.\nAccording to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's June policy meeting, Fed officials felt substantial further progress on the economic recovery \"was generally seen as not having yet been met,\" but agreed they should be poised to act if inflation or other risks materialized.\n\"I read this as effectively a dovish set of notes simply because they don't feel as a group that they have enough certainty around the situation to make any changes at all,\" said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network in Waltham, Massachusetts.\nTreasury yields edged lower following the Fed minutes, while stocks mostly edged higher.\nThe minutes reflected a divided Fed wrestling with new inflation risks but still relatively high unemployment.\nAfter its meeting and statement last month, investors began to anticipate the Fed would move more quickly to tighten than previously expected.\nWall Street has been concerned about inflation, with investors moving between economy-linked value stocks and growth names in the past few sessions.\nBoth growth(.RLG)and value stocks(.RLV)gained on Wednesday, while industrials(.SPLRCI)and materials(.SPLRCM)led S&P 500 sector gains.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI)rose 104.42 points, or 0.3%, to 34,681.79, the S&P 500(.SPX)gained 14.59 points, or 0.34%, to 4,358.13 and the Nasdaq Composite(.IXIC)added 1.42 points, or 0.01%, to 14,665.06.China's market regulator said it has fined a number of internet companies including Didi Global(DIDI.N), Tencent(0700.HK)and Alibaba(9988.HK)for failing to report earlier merger and acquisition deals for approval.read more\nU.S.-listed shares of Didi fell 4.6%, adding to a nearly 20% slump on Tuesday.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.92-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 71 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 121 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.04 billion shares, compared with the 10.7 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading 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revolution started.","listText":"Finance revolution started.","text":"Finance revolution started.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116397056","repostId":"1128349956","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":825553977,"gmtCreate":1634252335640,"gmtModify":1634274408072,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571214732315276","authorIdStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825553977","repostId":"1176037392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176037392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634217624,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176037392?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 21:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176037392","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales","content":"<p>Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.</p><p><blockquote>由于有报道称零部件短缺可能影响iPhone 13的销售，苹果股价遭受重创。这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不必太担心。</blockquote></p><p> The recent news has not been very favorable for Apple&nbsp;and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.</p><p><blockquote>最近的消息对苹果及其股票来说并不是很有利。据彭博社报道，iPhone 13正面临供应链问题。零部件短缺可能导致今年苹果设备产量下降1000万台。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布后，苹果股价并未暴跌，但再次跌破每股140美元——这是自2021年7月上旬以来从未见过的水平。然而，这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不应该担心最近涉及iPhone的事态发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c2295e5c2fd9f6f41f8a86c0a4c8ce\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone 13 new model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone 13新款。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>This seems familiar…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这似乎很熟悉……</b></blockquote></p><p> First, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?</p><p><blockquote>首先，读者必须了解苹果股票投资者和交易者有不同类型。许多人购买股票是希望获得短期收益，而另一些人则长期押注股票。事实上，短线交易者可能有充分的理由感到担忧。如果苹果下个季度的iPhone销量未达到预期，并且该股因此做出负面反应怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> But long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that&nbsp;demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>但长期持有者可能会进一步关注苹果未来的业务基本面。有足够多的报道表明，对iPhone 13的需求一直很高，可能甚至比对已经成功的iPhone 12的需求还要好。</blockquote></p><p> If enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>如果对一种产品有足够的需求，有理由认为暂时的供应链问题只会导致销售从一个时期转移到下一个时期。这正是2020年发生的情况，当时COVID-19危机导致iPhone 12在假期晚些时候亮相并推出。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了2019财年和2020财年以及今年上半年的iPhone销量增长情况。请注意，由于生产延迟，2019年痛苦的收入下降似乎创造了去年第四财季未得到满足的被压抑需求。当这些问题最终得到解决时，2021财年的收入猛增。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f351ccb2a56f417bb16d8f0246fcc4\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2019-2021年iPhone增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Average iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.</p><p><blockquote>从2020财年开始到现在，iPhone的平均销量增长了14%，尽管每个季度的收入都非常不稳定。同期，尽管去年存在供应链问题，苹果股价仍上涨了90%。</blockquote></p><p> Could the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.</p><p><blockquote>当前的零部件短缺会导致收入再次在日历上发生变化吗？我认为这是合理的，如果不太可能的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple is a good place to hide</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果是个藏身的好地方</b></blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，所谓的生产延误并不是苹果特有的问题。今年从大流行中复苏的零部件短缺已被充分记录，并且似乎正在全面影响消费技术供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.</p><p><blockquote>当然，投资者可以选择根本不投资科技行业，因为担心随着全球经济继续反弹，整个行业的表现将不佳。但如果要在该领域投入资金，我认为苹果是一个比平均水平更安全的选择，因为它拥有一流的供应链管理。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, I explained in more detail that Apple&nbsp;has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.</p><p><blockquote>去年，我更详细地解释了苹果在首席执行官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）的领导下已成为“库存管理之王”，蒂姆·库克也是库比蒂诺公司的前首席运营官。因此，如果我押注一家公司能很好地处理供应链问题，它可能是最具购买力且在管理库存方面拥有良好记录的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy iPhone Supply Hiccup Is Not A Problem For Apple Stock<blockquote>为什么iPhone供应中断对苹果股票来说不是问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 21:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.</p><p><blockquote>由于有报道称零部件短缺可能影响iPhone 13的销售，苹果股价遭受重创。这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不必太担心。</blockquote></p><p> The recent news has not been very favorable for Apple&nbsp;and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.</p><p><blockquote>最近的消息对苹果及其股票来说并不是很有利。据彭博社报道，iPhone 13正面临供应链问题。零部件短缺可能导致今年苹果设备产量下降1000万台。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>报告发布后，苹果股价并未暴跌，但再次跌破每股140美元——这是自2021年7月上旬以来从未见过的水平。然而，这位苹果专家认为，长期投资者不应该担心最近涉及iPhone的事态发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c2295e5c2fd9f6f41f8a86c0a4c8ce\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone 13 new model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone 13新款。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>This seems familiar…</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这似乎很熟悉……</b></blockquote></p><p> First, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?</p><p><blockquote>首先，读者必须了解苹果股票投资者和交易者有不同类型。许多人购买股票是希望获得短期收益，而另一些人则长期押注股票。事实上，短线交易者可能有充分的理由感到担忧。如果苹果下个季度的iPhone销量未达到预期，并且该股因此做出负面反应怎么办？</blockquote></p><p> But long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that&nbsp;demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>但长期持有者可能会进一步关注苹果未来的业务基本面。有足够多的报道表明，对iPhone 13的需求一直很高，可能甚至比对已经成功的iPhone 12的需求还要好。</blockquote></p><p> If enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>如果对一种产品有足够的需求，有理由认为暂时的供应链问题只会导致销售从一个时期转移到下一个时期。这正是2020年发生的情况，当时COVID-19危机导致iPhone 12在假期晚些时候亮相并推出。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了2019财年和2020财年以及今年上半年的iPhone销量增长情况。请注意，由于生产延迟，2019年痛苦的收入下降似乎创造了去年第四财季未得到满足的被压抑需求。当这些问题最终得到解决时，2021财年的收入猛增。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36f351ccb2a56f417bb16d8f0246fcc4\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2019-2021年iPhone增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Average iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.</p><p><blockquote>从2020财年开始到现在，iPhone的平均销量增长了14%，尽管每个季度的收入都非常不稳定。同期，尽管去年存在供应链问题，苹果股价仍上涨了90%。</blockquote></p><p> Could the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.</p><p><blockquote>当前的零部件短缺会导致收入再次在日历上发生变化吗？我认为这是合理的，如果不太可能的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple is a good place to hide</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果是个藏身的好地方</b></blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，所谓的生产延误并不是苹果特有的问题。今年从大流行中复苏的零部件短缺已被充分记录，并且似乎正在全面影响消费技术供应商。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.</p><p><blockquote>当然，投资者可以选择根本不投资科技行业，因为担心随着全球经济继续反弹，整个行业的表现将不佳。但如果要在该领域投入资金，我认为苹果是一个比平均水平更安全的选择，因为它拥有一流的供应链管理。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, I explained in more detail that Apple&nbsp;has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.</p><p><blockquote>去年，我更详细地解释了苹果在首席执行官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）的领导下已成为“库存管理之王”，蒂姆·库克也是库比蒂诺公司的前首席运营官。因此，如果我押注一家公司能很好地处理供应链问题，它可能是最具购买力且在管理库存方面拥有良好记录的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/why-iphone-supply-hiccup-is-not-a-problem-for-apple-stock\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/why-iphone-supply-hiccup-is-not-a-problem-for-apple-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176037392","content_text":"Apple stock has taken a hit due to reports of a component shortage that could impact iPhone 13 sales. The Apple Maven thinks that long-term investors should not worry much.\nThe recent news has not been very favorable for Apple and its shares. According to Bloomberg, the iPhone 13 isfacingsupply chain issues. The component shortage could cause the number of Apple devices produced to drop by 10 million this year.\nApple stock has not fallen apart following the report, but it dipped below $140 apiece once again – levels not seen for more than a hot second since the start of July 2021. However, the Apple Maven believes that long-term investors should not worry about the recent developments involving the iPhone.\nFigure 1: iPhone 13 new model.\nThis seems familiar…\nFirst, it is important for readers to understand that there are different types of Apple stock investors and traders. Many buy shares in hopes of short-term gains, while others bet on the stock for the long haul. Short-term traders may, in fact, have good reasons to be concerned. What if Apple misses iPhone sales expectations in the next quarter, and the stock reacts negatively as a result?\nBut long-term holders are probably looking at Apple’s business fundamentals further out in the future. There have been enough reports suggesting that demand for the iPhone 13 has been high, probably even better than demand for the already successful iPhone 12.\nIf enough demand for a product exists, it is reasonable to think that temporary supply chain hiccups will only cause sales to shift from one period to the next. This is exactly what happened in 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis caused the iPhone 12 to be unveiled and launched later in the holiday season.\nThe chart below shows iPhone sales growth in fiscal 2019 and 2020, and in the first periods of the current year. Notice how the painful revenue decline in 2019 seems to have created pent-up demand that was not met in fiscal Q4 of last year, due to the production delays. When those were finally resolved, fiscal 2021 revenues shot through the roof.\nFigure 2: iPhone growth from 2019 to 2021.\nAverage iPhone sales growth between the start of fiscal 2020 and now turned out to be a healthy 14%, although revenues were very lumpy from quarter to quarter. During the same period, and despite last year’s supply chain problems, Apple stock climbed 90%.\nCould the current component shortage cause revenues to merely shift around the calendar once again? I think it is plausible, if not likely.\nApple is a good place to hide\nTo be clear, the alleged production delays is not an Apple-specific problem. Component shortages in this year of recovery from the pandemic has been well documented and seems to be impacting consumer tech vendors across the board.\nOf course, an investor can choose not to commit to the tech sector at all, fearing that the whole industry will underperform as the global economies continue to bounce back. But if money is to be deployed in the space, I think that Apple is a safer-than-average bet due to best-in-class supply chain management.\nLast year, I explained in more detail that Apple has become “king of inventory management”under CEO Tim Cook – who is also the Cupertino company’s former COO. Therefore, were I to bet on one company handling supply chain issues well, it would probably be the one with most purchasing power and a solid track record at managing inventory.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168663741,"gmtCreate":1623974199283,"gmtModify":1631889863549,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571214732315276","authorIdStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168663741","repostId":"1140460323","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115158954,"gmtCreate":1622961864478,"gmtModify":1634096536086,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571214732315276","authorIdStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What is the most valuable stock at this moment to hold for 20 years?","listText":"What is the most valuable stock at this moment to hold for 20 years?","text":"What is the most valuable stock at this moment to hold for 20 years?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115158954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118033285,"gmtCreate":1622706966047,"gmtModify":1634098949134,"author":{"id":"3571214732315276","authorId":"3571214732315276","name":"Alancheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f6b873ddda2726858a1e50a582822a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571214732315276","authorIdStr":"3571214732315276"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"definitely no","listText":"definitely no","text":"definitely no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118033285","repostId":"1160407593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160407593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622706069,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160407593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 15:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160407593","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.Apple  bulls have to be frus","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li>  <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li>  <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;significantly elevated&nbsp;to historical levels.</li>  <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第二季度盈利预期令人震惊，但苹果股价却出现逆转，表现逊于大盘。</li><li>我认为华尔街对苹果2022财年的预期过高，可能是近期疲软的原因之一。</li><li>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍显着高于历史水平。</li><li>我严重怀疑iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售能否在明年继续目前的火爆销售速度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：PeskyMonkey/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its&nbsp;Q1 holiday quarter&nbsp;and&nbsp;Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The&nbsp;thesis from my last article&nbsp;on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）的多头不得不感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假期季度和第二季度1月至3月季度的盈利均大幅超出预期，但股价却毫无进展。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19封锁、政府施舍和5G的推出都最终将苹果的需求拉入了2021财年，这得到了New Street分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been&nbsp;tracking iPhone sales in China&nbsp;and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预言天要塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在做模特<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿部之间，而市场普遍预期为2.34亿部。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不这么认为，特别是因为SA撰稿人Paulo Santos一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销售情况，并看到从白热化的开局到今年年初明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac的类似放缓还需要几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有意义吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，别有用心。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接持有苹果，并且仍然通过我持有的Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我无论如何都不反对它，我只是按照我所看到的来称呼它——而且我认为估值非常过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;<b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然保持不变<b>显著升高</b>-50%或更多-从他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的预期收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预测增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性预测假设苹果将在2022财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年的情况类似，营业利润从2014财年至2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年适度下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果2021财年可能会在很长一段时间内达到销售和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管取得了所有这些成功，苹果的营业收入在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月内打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的大力帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有此次减税，2020年每股收益将约为2.88美元，而不是3.28美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火爆的销售表现不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我认为iPad的销量就是一个例证。在过去的几年里，销量一直保持稳定，直到去年爆炸式增长57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPads？我选后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论——苹果仍值得卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师不失时机地提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前业绩的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我不像大多数人那样看好5G超级周期。我相信创新者和早期采用者会急于升级，但大多数大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自身成功的受害者——最近的iPhones都很好，升级到更新的手机不太引人注目，因为4G对大多数人来说“足够好”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们今年前两个季度的收入已经为3.08美元，目前预计整个财年的收入为5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，并预计每股收益将接近4-4.50美元，远低于目前预期的5.30美元。这将使市盈率回到30以上，并出现负增长率。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试100美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，但定价太高了。估值总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 15:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li>  <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li>  <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;significantly elevated&nbsp;to historical levels.</li>  <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第二季度盈利预期令人震惊，但苹果股价却出现逆转，表现逊于大盘。</li><li>我认为华尔街对苹果2022财年的预期过高，可能是近期疲软的原因之一。</li><li>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍显着高于历史水平。</li><li>我严重怀疑iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售能否在明年继续目前的火爆销售速度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：PeskyMonkey/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its&nbsp;Q1 holiday quarter&nbsp;and&nbsp;Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The&nbsp;thesis from my last article&nbsp;on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）的多头不得不感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假期季度和第二季度1月至3月季度的盈利均大幅超出预期，但股价却毫无进展。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19封锁、政府施舍和5G的推出都最终将苹果的需求拉入了2021财年，这得到了New Street分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been&nbsp;tracking iPhone sales in China&nbsp;and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预言天要塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在做模特<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿部之间，而市场普遍预期为2.34亿部。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不这么认为，特别是因为SA撰稿人Paulo Santos一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销售情况，并看到从白热化的开局到今年年初明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac的类似放缓还需要几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有意义吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，别有用心。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接持有苹果，并且仍然通过我持有的Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我无论如何都不反对它，我只是按照我所看到的来称呼它——而且我认为估值非常过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;<b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然保持不变<b>显著升高</b>-50%或更多-从他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的预期收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预测增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性预测假设苹果将在2022财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年的情况类似，营业利润从2014财年至2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年适度下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果2021财年可能会在很长一段时间内达到销售和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管取得了所有这些成功，苹果的营业收入在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月内打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的大力帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有此次减税，2020年每股收益将约为2.88美元，而不是3.28美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火爆的销售表现不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我认为iPad的销量就是一个例证。在过去的几年里，销量一直保持稳定，直到去年爆炸式增长57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPads？我选后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论——苹果仍值得卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师不失时机地提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前业绩的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我不像大多数人那样看好5G超级周期。我相信创新者和早期采用者会急于升级，但大多数大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自身成功的受害者——最近的iPhones都很好，升级到更新的手机不太引人注目，因为4G对大多数人来说“足够好”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们今年前两个季度的收入已经为3.08美元，目前预计整个财年的收入为5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，并预计每股收益将接近4-4.50美元，远低于目前预期的5.30美元。这将使市盈率回到30以上，并出现负增长率。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试100美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，但定价太高了。估值总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160407593","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.\nI believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.\nI have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.\n\nPhoto by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nApple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.\n\nNew Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modelingiPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.\nWhat is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?\nFrom the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.\nData by YCharts\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated- 50% or more - from their historic norms.\n\nThis is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.\nBut these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.\nApple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time\nSince 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.\nYet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)\n\nUltimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.\n\nDid iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.\nConclusion - Apple is still a Sell\nWall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.\nAdmittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.\n\nApple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.\nApple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. 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