JJQ的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JJQ

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2022-02-27

👍💪

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-02-26

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$💪

2022-02-17

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$👍

2022-01-19

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ SoFi, 💪🚀🌝

2022-01-19

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$💪🚀🌝👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-01-17

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ hodl 💪

2021-12-27

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$💪🌝👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-19

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$power NIO 💪🌝👍 ready to bounce !

Nio unveils new model and talks power at Nio Day event<blockquote>蔚来在蔚来日活动中推出新车型并谈论动力</blockquote>

2021-12-08

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$💪🌝👍

Dear NIO Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for This Potential Catalyst on Dec. 18<blockquote>亲爱的蔚来股票粉丝，请在您的日历上标记12月18日的这一潜在催化剂</blockquote>

2021-11-18

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$💪🌝👍 slowly accumulate !

NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>

2021-11-12

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$💪🌝👍

2021-11-11

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$strong pre market 👍😁🌝💪

2021-11-10

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$💪🌝👍

2021-11-09

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$💪🌝👍

2021-11-08

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$💪🌝👍

2021-11-07

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$NIO 💪🌝👍

2021-11-06

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$💪🌝👍

2021-11-05

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$HODL NIO 💪

2021-11-02

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$💪🌝👍

2021-11-01

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$💪🌝👍

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>💪🚀🌝👍","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$💪🚀🌝👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697791799","repostId":"1188286869","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697837970,"gmtCreate":1642397577631,"gmtModify":1642397578143,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571627110799155","authorIdStr":"3571627110799155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>&nbsp;hodl 💪","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>&nbsp;hodl 💪","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ hodl 💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697837970","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696079513,"gmtCreate":1640585939370,"gmtModify":1640585939921,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571627110799155","authorIdStr":"3571627110799155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>💪🌝👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>💪🌝👍","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$💪🌝👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696079513","repostId":"2194177864","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699495650,"gmtCreate":1639873442191,"gmtModify":1639873442717,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571627110799155","authorIdStr":"3571627110799155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>power NIO 💪🌝👍 ready to bounce !","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>power NIO 💪🌝👍 ready to bounce !","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$power NIO 💪🌝👍 ready to bounce !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699495650","repostId":"1170599515","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170599515","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639872378,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170599515?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-19 08:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nio unveils new model and talks power at Nio Day event<blockquote>蔚来在蔚来日活动中推出新车型并谈论动力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170599515","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"$Nio $ unveiled its the ET5 mid-size smart electric sedan at Nio Day 2021 today. The vehicle is the fifth mass-produced model from the Chinese electric vehicle maker.The automaker says the ET5 draws on the fluid silhouette of ET7 and \"seamlessly integrates high-performance autonomous driving sensors into its pure yet progressive body lines.\". The ET5 features the latest NIO Autonomous Driving and is said to be set to gradually achieve a safe and reassuring autonomous driving experience in scenar","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio </a> unveiled its the ET5 mid-size smart electric sedan at Nio Day 2021 today. The vehicle is the fifth mass-produced model from the Chinese electric vehicle maker.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>今天在2021年蔚来日推出了ET5中型智能电动轿车。该车是这家中国电动汽车制造商的第五款量产车型。</blockquote></p><p> The automaker says the ET5 draws on the fluid silhouette of ET7 and \"seamlessly integrates high-performance autonomous driving sensors into its pure yet progressive body lines.\"</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商表示，ET5借鉴了ET7流畅的轮廓，“将高性能自动驾驶传感器无缝集成到其纯粹而进步的车身线条中”。</blockquote></p><p> Customers can buy the ET5 with battery pack for 328,000 yuan ($51,450) for the version with 75kWh battery pack and 386,000 yuan ($60,550) for the 100kWh version. Those prices are before subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>客户可以以328,000元（51,450美元）的价格购买带电池组的ET5，75kWh电池组版本和386,000元（60,550美元）的价格购买100kWh版本。这些价格是补贴前的价格。</blockquote></p><p> The ET5 features the latest NIO Autonomous Driving and is said to be set to gradually achieve a safe and reassuring autonomous driving experience in scenarios such as highways, urban areas, parking and battery swapping.</p><p><blockquote>ET5以最新的蔚来自动驾驶为特色，据称将在高速公路、市区、停车和换电等场景逐步实现安全放心的自动驾驶体验。</blockquote></p><p> Other highlights from Nio's (NIO) event included updates on the ET7. The company also talked up its power and battery charging initiatives. Nio (NIO) said it has now deployed 3,348 destination chargers and 3,136 super chargers across China. Home chargers have been installed for 94K users.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）活动的其他亮点包括ET7的更新。该公司还谈到了其电力和电池充电计划。蔚来（蔚来）表示，目前已在全国部署3348个目的地充电桩和3136个超级充电桩。已经为94K用户安装了家用充电器。</blockquote></p><p> Watch Nio (NIO) for a bounce on Monday if the event creates buzz. Nio is already one of the most discussed stocks on StockTwits and Reddit's WallStreetBets. See all the stocks on watch next week for some share price volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果该事件引起轰动，请关注蔚来（蔚来）周一的反弹。蔚来已经是StockTwits和Reddit的WallStreetBets上讨论最多的股票之一。查看下周关注的所有股票，了解股价波动情况。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nio unveils new model and talks power at Nio Day event<blockquote>蔚来在蔚来日活动中推出新车型并谈论动力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNio unveils new model and talks power at Nio Day event<blockquote>蔚来在蔚来日活动中推出新车型并谈论动力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-19 08:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio </a> unveiled its the ET5 mid-size smart electric sedan at Nio Day 2021 today. The vehicle is the fifth mass-produced model from the Chinese electric vehicle maker.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>今天在2021年蔚来日推出了ET5中型智能电动轿车。该车是这家中国电动汽车制造商的第五款量产车型。</blockquote></p><p> The automaker says the ET5 draws on the fluid silhouette of ET7 and \"seamlessly integrates high-performance autonomous driving sensors into its pure yet progressive body lines.\"</p><p><blockquote>该汽车制造商表示，ET5借鉴了ET7流畅的轮廓，“将高性能自动驾驶传感器无缝集成到其纯粹而进步的车身线条中”。</blockquote></p><p> Customers can buy the ET5 with battery pack for 328,000 yuan ($51,450) for the version with 75kWh battery pack and 386,000 yuan ($60,550) for the 100kWh version. Those prices are before subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>客户可以以328,000元（51,450美元）的价格购买带电池组的ET5，75kWh电池组版本和386,000元（60,550美元）的价格购买100kWh版本。这些价格是补贴前的价格。</blockquote></p><p> The ET5 features the latest NIO Autonomous Driving and is said to be set to gradually achieve a safe and reassuring autonomous driving experience in scenarios such as highways, urban areas, parking and battery swapping.</p><p><blockquote>ET5以最新的蔚来自动驾驶为特色，据称将在高速公路、市区、停车和换电等场景逐步实现安全放心的自动驾驶体验。</blockquote></p><p> Other highlights from Nio's (NIO) event included updates on the ET7. The company also talked up its power and battery charging initiatives. Nio (NIO) said it has now deployed 3,348 destination chargers and 3,136 super chargers across China. Home chargers have been installed for 94K users.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）活动的其他亮点包括ET7的更新。该公司还谈到了其电力和电池充电计划。蔚来（蔚来）表示，目前已在全国部署3348个目的地充电桩和3136个超级充电桩。已经为94K用户安装了家用充电器。</blockquote></p><p> Watch Nio (NIO) for a bounce on Monday if the event creates buzz. Nio is already one of the most discussed stocks on StockTwits and Reddit's WallStreetBets. See all the stocks on watch next week for some share price volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果该事件引起轰动，请关注蔚来（蔚来）周一的反弹。蔚来已经是StockTwits和Reddit的WallStreetBets上讨论最多的股票之一。查看下周关注的所有股票，了解股价波动情况。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3781485-nio-unveils-new-model-and-talks-power-at-nio-day-event\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3781485-nio-unveils-new-model-and-talks-power-at-nio-day-event","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170599515","content_text":"Nio  unveiled its the ET5 mid-size smart electric sedan at Nio Day 2021 today. The vehicle is the fifth mass-produced model from the Chinese electric vehicle maker.\nThe automaker says the ET5 draws on the fluid silhouette of ET7 and \"seamlessly integrates high-performance autonomous driving sensors into its pure yet progressive body lines.\"\nCustomers can buy the ET5 with battery pack for 328,000 yuan ($51,450) for the version with 75kWh battery pack and 386,000 yuan ($60,550) for the 100kWh version. Those prices are before subsidies.\nThe ET5 features the latest NIO Autonomous Driving and is said to be set to gradually achieve a safe and reassuring autonomous driving experience in scenarios such as highways, urban areas, parking and battery swapping.\nOther highlights from Nio's (NIO) event included updates on the ET7. The company also talked up its power and battery charging initiatives. Nio (NIO) said it has now deployed 3,348 destination chargers and 3,136 super chargers across China. Home chargers have been installed for 94K users.\nWatch Nio (NIO) for a bounce on Monday if the event creates buzz. Nio is already one of the most discussed stocks on StockTwits and Reddit's WallStreetBets. See all the stocks on watch next week for some share price volatility.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602009311,"gmtCreate":1638934564311,"gmtModify":1638934564800,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571627110799155","authorIdStr":"3571627110799155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>💪🌝👍&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>💪🌝👍&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$💪🌝👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602009311","repostId":"1180884235","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180884235","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638932278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180884235?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 10:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dear NIO Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for This Potential Catalyst on Dec. 18<blockquote>亲爱的蔚来股票粉丝，请在您的日历上标记12月18日的这一潜在催化剂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180884235","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Fans of electric vehicle  stocks are anxiously awaiting Nio Day, which has been confirmed to take place on Dec. 18 in Suzhou, China.Nio is expected to debut at least two new vehicle models and possibly a brand new vehicle brand. During Nio Day 2020, the EV maker unveiled the ET7 sedan to much fanfare. Deliveries for the ET7 sedan are expected to start in 2022 for most countries, although confirmation for this timetable will likely be answered at Nio Day.Without further ado, let’s dive right into","content":"<p><div> Fans of electric vehicle (EV) stocks are anxiously awaiting Nio Day, which has been confirmed to take place on Dec. 18 in Suzhou, China.Nio(NYSE:NIO) is expected to debut at least two new vehicle ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车（EV）股票的粉丝们正在焦急地等待蔚来日，该日已确认将于12月18日在中国苏州市举行。蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）预计将推出至少两款新车……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/dear-nio-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-this-potential-catalyst/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/dear-nio-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-this-potential-catalyst/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dear NIO Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for This Potential Catalyst on Dec. 18<blockquote>亲爱的蔚来股票粉丝，请在您的日历上标记12月18日的这一潜在催化剂</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDear NIO Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for This Potential Catalyst on Dec. 18<blockquote>亲爱的蔚来股票粉丝，请在您的日历上标记12月18日的这一潜在催化剂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-08 10:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Fans of electric vehicle (EV) stocks are anxiously awaiting Nio Day, which has been confirmed to take place on Dec. 18 in Suzhou, China.Nio(NYSE:NIO) is expected to debut at least two new vehicle ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车（EV）股票的粉丝们正在焦急地等待蔚来日，该日已确认将于12月18日在中国苏州市举行。蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）预计将推出至少两款新车……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/dear-nio-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-this-potential-catalyst/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/dear-nio-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-this-potential-catalyst/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/dear-nio-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-this-potential-catalyst/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/dear-nio-stock-fans-mark-your-calendars-for-this-potential-catalyst/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180884235","content_text":"Fans of electric vehicle (EV) stocks are anxiously awaiting Nio Day, which has been confirmed to take place on Dec. 18 in Suzhou, China.Nio(NYSE:NIO) is expected to debut at least two new vehicle models and possibly a brand new vehicle brand. During Nio Day 2020, the EV maker unveiled the ET7 sedan to much fanfare. Deliveries for the ET7 sedan are expected to start in 2022 for most countries, although confirmation for this timetable will likely be answered at Nio Day.\nNio also impressed shareholders after releasing its November delivery numbers. The company reported that it had delivered 10,878 vehicles, up nearly 106% year-over-year (YOY). This brings total year deliveries to 80,940 vehicles, up more than 120% YOY. The November numbers were much needed after Nio reported disappointing October deliveries. Those numbers came in lower due to supply-chain issues and chip shortages.InvestorPlacecontributor Vandita Jadeja notes that Nio’sexpected fourth-quarter deliveries of 23,500 to 25,500 vehicles will be difficult to accomplish.\nWithout further ado, let’s dive right into what investors should know about Nio’s most exciting day of the year.\nNio Day: What NIO Stock Investors Should Know\n\nRumors are flying around that one of the new vehicles to be released during Nio Day is the ET5, a mid-sized sedan. The ET5 will reportedly compete with the BMW(OTCMKTS:BMWYY) 3-series and the Audi A4 at a lower price (Audi is owned by Volkswagen(OTCMKTS:VWAGY)).\nThe ET5 will likely be priced below the ET7, which has a base cost of around $69,000.\nAccording to a research note from Deutsche Bank, the second mystery EV is expected to be similar to the Toyota(NYSE:TM) Alphard, a luxury multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) that “sold 20,000 units in China last year.” Deutsche’s second guess is a high-performance sports coupe.\nNio recently filed a trademark registration for the name EF9, according to Electric Vehicle Web. This has led many to speculate that the new vehicle will be a convertible version of the EP9.\nCEO William Li confirmed that Nio plans on adding three new models to the Nio Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. One of the models will be the new ET7 sedan. The other two are still unknown.\nFans of NIO stock are also waiting for an update on overseas delivery times and availability, especially in European countries. The company will likely answer this question at Nio Day.\nLi confirmed during a Q2 conference call that Nio had assembled a team to work on a new vehicle brand. In regards to the possible new vehicle brand, Li commented, “The relationship between Nio and our new mass-market brand will be like that of Audi-Volkswagen and Lexus-Toyota.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878768986,"gmtCreate":1637234802957,"gmtModify":1637234803220,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571627110799155","authorIdStr":"3571627110799155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>💪🌝👍 slowly accumulate !","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>💪🌝👍 slowly accumulate !","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$💪🌝👍 slowly accumulate !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878768986","repostId":"1124378970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124378970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637229476,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124378970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-18 17:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124378970","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's  largest factory and market.NIO stock has had a su","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.</li>  <li>The company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.</li>  <li>We discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.</li>  <li>We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffccc5b06bd64a029e813af7f0627d6e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是国内领先的纯电动汽车制造商之一。</li><li>该公司预计将快速增长，因为它明年将积极向欧洲扩张。</li><li>我们讨论了投资者在2022年及以后应该期待什么。</li><li>我们还讨论投资者现在是否应该添加蔚来股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost&nbsp;going bankrupt&nbsp;a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是国内领先的新型电动汽车（NEV）企业之一。尽管几年前差点破产，但这家纯新能源汽车公司已经卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来10月份交付量疲软。尽管如此，该公司年初至今的总交付量仍在领先的纯业务同行中领先。竞争非常激烈，但蔚来继续快速增长。中国市场的规模和巨大机遇让Elon Musk宣布中国将成为特斯拉(TSLA)最大的工厂和市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来股票2021年迄今为止表现相对疲软的情况下，我们讨论投资者是否是时候增持该股票了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c286d28256f44ca6fa6deb496e6e2c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月15日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在2021年表现不佳。尽管该股今年开局强劲，但在2021年2月从成长股转向价值股后，其上升势头崩溃。尽管5月份出现了显着复苏，但仍处于盘整阶段。相比之下，中国新能源汽车同行迄今为止的表现更好。蔚来股票目前表现落后于中国领先的新能源汽车同行，特斯拉股票年初至今的回报率为-16.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来在全球最大的电动汽车市场运营</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead&nbsp;it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来遭遇了令人惊讶的困境，但该公司可以依靠其本土市场中国来支持其增长。中国是全球第一大电动汽车市场，夺回了2020年短暂输给欧洲的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> BloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales&nbsp;reached 17.5% in September&nbsp;and averaged 13% YTD through September.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新能源财经估计，到2025年，电动汽车在中国汽车总销量中的份额将达到25%，高于2020年的6%。中国政府的预测稍微保守一些，预计到2025年将达到20%。然而，中国电动汽车销量超出了这些预期，9月份电动汽车占总销量的份额达到17.5%，年初至今至9月份平均为13%。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们相信，中国电动汽车采用国家议程所支撑的巨大长期推动力将继续推动蔚来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司预计中国将成为其最重要的市场，尽管它正在规划其欧洲（世界第二大电动汽车市场）的扩张。蔚来首席执行官William Li强调：</blockquote></p><p>   If we look at the global market, we can see that  <i>China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market</i>, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)  Therefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们放眼全球市场，我们可以看到<i>中国仍然是最大的汽车市场和最大的高端市场</i>，所以中国仍将是我们最重要的市场。但我相信，从长远来看，对于中国以外的市场，它们应该占我们产品总销售额的50%左右。（来自蔚来21年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，我们预计随着公司规模的扩大，中国将继续推动公司的增长。蔚来强调，目前最大年产能为60万辆。因此，该公司已经做好了扩大生产规模的准备。考虑到目前年初至今的交付量，我们认为蔚来的市场机会仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来刚刚起步的市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01decb5c7ce129cf9fc59b2b13ccba85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>China's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国领先的新能源汽车制造商年初至今10月21日交付量。数据来源：各企业备案，中国乘联会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also&nbsp;discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪股份有限公司（OTCPK：BYDDF）是中国领先的新能源汽车制造商。其年初至今的交付量（截至10月21日）凸显了该公司无可争议的领导地位。我们还在最近的一篇文章中讨论了比亚迪的论文。尽管如此，蔚来今年迄今的交付量继续领先于纯同行。然而，竞争非常激烈。尽管如此，我们相信中国推动电动汽车采用的巨大推动力将继续使蔚来及其同行受益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管蔚来公布的10月份交付数据令人印象深刻，但我们认为这并不令人担忧。我们稍后将详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d6d8b43b9aff12d916fdb0327e8974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来年初至今10月21日每月交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ea81aba6c5ceedc67d354d0fe0f604\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来按型号划分的季度交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):</p><p><blockquote>读者可以观察到3.67 K的“异常”疲软的10月份交付数据。然而，我们并不过度担心10月份的数字。该公司表示，需要一些停机时间来调整其制造流程，以扩大ET7（蔚来即将推出的旗舰轿车）的规模。值得注意的是，该公司强调“自10月下旬以来已恢复正常生产”。李阐述（为简洁起见进行了编辑）：</blockquote></p><p>   ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center.  <i>Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October</i>. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)  Therefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>为进一步扩大产能及推出ET7等新产品，我们对蔚来先进制造中心的生产线进行了升级改造。<i>受升级及重组影响，我们于10月交付3,667辆</i>该工厂自10月下旬起已恢复正常生产。（来自蔚来21年第三季度收益看涨期权）因此，我们并不太关心10月份的问题。该公司预计第四季度交付量在23,500至25,500之间。因此，第四季度的交付量估计约为24.5万辆，处于蔚来指导的中点。因此，环比增长预计持平。尽管如此，如果我们考虑到10月份“异常”疲软的数据，该公司预计11月和12月的交付量将强劲。平均而言，该公司预计11月和12月每月分别交付约10,42万台。这将使其与9月份创纪录的10.63万辆交付量持平。因此，对10月疲软的担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计2021财年的交付量约为9.09万辆。与60万辆的年产能相比，蔚来显然希望未来迅速提高产量。虽然达到60万的年化运行率可能需要一段时间，但蔚来正准备在2022年推出3款基于其蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品（包括ET7）。因此，该公司正在积极刷新其名单，并预计明年将继续其快速的交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司还预计能够很好地应对芯片供应紧缩。它在短期内也影响了蔚来。然而，蔚来展示了其内部技术的能力，李解释说他们已经设法解决了这些问题。李补充道：</blockquote></p><p>   I would like to specifically mention that because the  <i>many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house</i>. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already  <i>resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles</i>. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call)  <b>Consensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote>我想特别提一下，因为<i>我们车辆中的许多域控制器实际上都是我们自己内部开发的</i>因此，如果域控制器中的某些芯片短缺，我们的团队有能力快速找到替代方案，并对这些车辆和芯片进行快速验证和更快的生产。所以因为这些能力，我们已经<i>解决了我们车辆出现的一些芯片短缺情况</i>.（摘自蔚来第三季度财报看涨期权）<b>共识估计也与蔚来的快速扩张一致</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75908e4cc1b0e008a565a8faaa67a434\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO LTM revenue &amp; operating margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来LTM收入和营业利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/956abb3d98a0a3907c217e0c2e4b00c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO est. revenue mean consensus &amp; est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来东部。收入平均值共识和估计值。息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上面的第一张图表中很快发现，蔚来的营收迅速扩大。值得注意的是，随着规模的扩大，它还成功地极大地提高了运营杠杆。正如所解释的，我们认为蔚来的盈利增长还处于早期阶段。鉴于其拥有60万的年化产能，蔚来仍有望快速增长。据估计，通过2023财年，该公司的营收将以惊人的77.7%的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，其息税前利润共识估计还表明，2022财年息税前利润损失率较低，为2.1%。2023财年预计蔚来将使息税前利润实现盈利。息税前利润率为3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，蔚来投资者可以继续期待该公司在欧洲之旅和本土市场获得关注。此外，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其2022年的新产品发布，因为该公司预计未来将有强劲的交付节奏。尽管如此，根据21年第四季度的指导，11月和12月的交付数量也应该令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b943b23fe0e9f66e7db0040c15948ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票EV/NTM收入3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股票的EV/NTM收入为7.9倍。它已经从一月份的高点下跌了很长一段时间。此外，它也比3年平均水平高出约14%。因此，我们认为蔚来股票的估值现在看起来很有吸引力。这是一家比三年前强大得多的公司。此外，还显著提升了经营杠杆。再加上支撑其未来快速增长的强大长期驱动因素，我们相信长期投资者最好坐以待毙。如果蔚来能够继续提高其交付节奏，我们认为该股将在2022财年重新评级。因此，投资者现在应该利用其疲软的机会将蔚来股票添加到他们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate NIO stock at Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>蔚来股票评级为买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-18 17:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.</li>  <li>The company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.</li>  <li>We discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.</li>  <li>We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffccc5b06bd64a029e813af7f0627d6e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是国内领先的纯电动汽车制造商之一。</li><li>该公司预计将快速增长，因为它明年将积极向欧洲扩张。</li><li>我们讨论了投资者在2022年及以后应该期待什么。</li><li>我们还讨论投资者现在是否应该添加蔚来股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost&nbsp;going bankrupt&nbsp;a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是国内领先的新型电动汽车（NEV）企业之一。尽管几年前差点破产，但这家纯新能源汽车公司已经卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来10月份交付量疲软。尽管如此，该公司年初至今的总交付量仍在领先的纯业务同行中领先。竞争非常激烈，但蔚来继续快速增长。中国市场的规模和巨大机遇让Elon Musk宣布中国将成为特斯拉(TSLA)最大的工厂和市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来股票2021年迄今为止表现相对疲软的情况下，我们讨论投资者是否是时候增持该股票了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c286d28256f44ca6fa6deb496e6e2c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月15日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在2021年表现不佳。尽管该股今年开局强劲，但在2021年2月从成长股转向价值股后，其上升势头崩溃。尽管5月份出现了显着复苏，但仍处于盘整阶段。相比之下，中国新能源汽车同行迄今为止的表现更好。蔚来股票目前表现落后于中国领先的新能源汽车同行，特斯拉股票年初至今的回报率为-16.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来在全球最大的电动汽车市场运营</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead&nbsp;it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来遭遇了令人惊讶的困境，但该公司可以依靠其本土市场中国来支持其增长。中国是全球第一大电动汽车市场，夺回了2020年短暂输给欧洲的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> BloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales&nbsp;reached 17.5% in September&nbsp;and averaged 13% YTD through September.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新能源财经估计，到2025年，电动汽车在中国汽车总销量中的份额将达到25%，高于2020年的6%。中国政府的预测稍微保守一些，预计到2025年将达到20%。然而，中国电动汽车销量超出了这些预期，9月份电动汽车占总销量的份额达到17.5%，年初至今至9月份平均为13%。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们相信，中国电动汽车采用国家议程所支撑的巨大长期推动力将继续推动蔚来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司预计中国将成为其最重要的市场，尽管它正在规划其欧洲（世界第二大电动汽车市场）的扩张。蔚来首席执行官William Li强调：</blockquote></p><p>   If we look at the global market, we can see that  <i>China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market</i>, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)  Therefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们放眼全球市场，我们可以看到<i>中国仍然是最大的汽车市场和最大的高端市场</i>，所以中国仍将是我们最重要的市场。但我相信，从长远来看，对于中国以外的市场，它们应该占我们产品总销售额的50%左右。（来自蔚来21年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，我们预计随着公司规模的扩大，中国将继续推动公司的增长。蔚来强调，目前最大年产能为60万辆。因此，该公司已经做好了扩大生产规模的准备。考虑到目前年初至今的交付量，我们认为蔚来的市场机会仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来刚刚起步的市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01decb5c7ce129cf9fc59b2b13ccba85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>China's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国领先的新能源汽车制造商年初至今10月21日交付量。数据来源：各企业备案，中国乘联会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also&nbsp;discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪股份有限公司（OTCPK：BYDDF）是中国领先的新能源汽车制造商。其年初至今的交付量（截至10月21日）凸显了该公司无可争议的领导地位。我们还在最近的一篇文章中讨论了比亚迪的论文。尽管如此，蔚来今年迄今的交付量继续领先于纯同行。然而，竞争非常激烈。尽管如此，我们相信中国推动电动汽车采用的巨大推动力将继续使蔚来及其同行受益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管蔚来公布的10月份交付数据令人印象深刻，但我们认为这并不令人担忧。我们稍后将详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d6d8b43b9aff12d916fdb0327e8974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来年初至今10月21日每月交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ea81aba6c5ceedc67d354d0fe0f604\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来按型号划分的季度交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):</p><p><blockquote>读者可以观察到3.67 K的“异常”疲软的10月份交付数据。然而，我们并不过度担心10月份的数字。该公司表示，需要一些停机时间来调整其制造流程，以扩大ET7（蔚来即将推出的旗舰轿车）的规模。值得注意的是，该公司强调“自10月下旬以来已恢复正常生产”。李阐述（为简洁起见进行了编辑）：</blockquote></p><p>   ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center.  <i>Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October</i>. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)  Therefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>为进一步扩大产能及推出ET7等新产品，我们对蔚来先进制造中心的生产线进行了升级改造。<i>受升级及重组影响，我们于10月交付3,667辆</i>该工厂自10月下旬起已恢复正常生产。（来自蔚来21年第三季度收益看涨期权）因此，我们并不太关心10月份的问题。该公司预计第四季度交付量在23,500至25,500之间。因此，第四季度的交付量估计约为24.5万辆，处于蔚来指导的中点。因此，环比增长预计持平。尽管如此，如果我们考虑到10月份“异常”疲软的数据，该公司预计11月和12月的交付量将强劲。平均而言，该公司预计11月和12月每月分别交付约10,42万台。这将使其与9月份创纪录的10.63万辆交付量持平。因此，对10月疲软的担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计2021财年的交付量约为9.09万辆。与60万辆的年产能相比，蔚来显然希望未来迅速提高产量。虽然达到60万的年化运行率可能需要一段时间，但蔚来正准备在2022年推出3款基于其蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品（包括ET7）。因此，该公司正在积极刷新其名单，并预计明年将继续其快速的交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司还预计能够很好地应对芯片供应紧缩。它在短期内也影响了蔚来。然而，蔚来展示了其内部技术的能力，李解释说他们已经设法解决了这些问题。李补充道：</blockquote></p><p>   I would like to specifically mention that because the  <i>many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house</i>. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already  <i>resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles</i>. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call)  <b>Consensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote>我想特别提一下，因为<i>我们车辆中的许多域控制器实际上都是我们自己内部开发的</i>因此，如果域控制器中的某些芯片短缺，我们的团队有能力快速找到替代方案，并对这些车辆和芯片进行快速验证和更快的生产。所以因为这些能力，我们已经<i>解决了我们车辆出现的一些芯片短缺情况</i>.（摘自蔚来第三季度财报看涨期权）<b>共识估计也与蔚来的快速扩张一致</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75908e4cc1b0e008a565a8faaa67a434\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO LTM revenue &amp; operating margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来LTM收入和营业利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/956abb3d98a0a3907c217e0c2e4b00c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO est. revenue mean consensus &amp; est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来东部。收入平均值共识和估计值。息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上面的第一张图表中很快发现，蔚来的营收迅速扩大。值得注意的是，随着规模的扩大，它还成功地极大地提高了运营杠杆。正如所解释的，我们认为蔚来的盈利增长还处于早期阶段。鉴于其拥有60万的年化产能，蔚来仍有望快速增长。据估计，通过2023财年，该公司的营收将以惊人的77.7%的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，其息税前利润共识估计还表明，2022财年息税前利润损失率较低，为2.1%。2023财年预计蔚来将使息税前利润实现盈利。息税前利润率为3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，蔚来投资者可以继续期待该公司在欧洲之旅和本土市场获得关注。此外，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其2022年的新产品发布，因为该公司预计未来将有强劲的交付节奏。尽管如此，根据21年第四季度的指导，11月和12月的交付数量也应该令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b943b23fe0e9f66e7db0040c15948ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票EV/NTM收入3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股票的EV/NTM收入为7.9倍。它已经从一月份的高点下跌了很长一段时间。此外，它也比3年平均水平高出约14%。因此，我们认为蔚来股票的估值现在看起来很有吸引力。这是一家比三年前强大得多的公司。此外，还显著提升了经营杠杆。再加上支撑其未来快速增长的强大长期驱动因素，我们相信长期投资者最好坐以待毙。如果蔚来能够继续提高其交付节奏，我们认为该股将在2022财年重新评级。因此，投资者现在应该利用其疲软的机会将蔚来股票添加到他们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate NIO stock at Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>蔚来股票评级为买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470158-nio-stock-forecast\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470158-nio-stock-forecast","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124378970","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.\nThe company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.\nWe discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.\nWe also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.\n\nAndy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nNIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.\nNIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.\nAmid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.\nNIO Stock YTD Performance\nNIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).\nNIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%\nNIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market\nDespite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.\nBloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.\nHence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.\nNotably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:\n\n If we look at the global market, we can see that\n China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nTherefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.\nNIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity\nChina's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association\nBYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.\nIn addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.\nNIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings\nNIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings\nReaders can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):\n\n ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center.\n Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nTherefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.\nNIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.\nNotably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:\n\n I would like to specifically mention that because the\n many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already\n resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call)\n\nConsensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion\nNIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nReaders can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.\nNotably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.\nTherefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.\nSo, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?\nNIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.\nNIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.\nConsequently, werate NIO stock at Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879156051,"gmtCreate":1636694111396,"gmtModify":1636694468862,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571627110799155","authorIdStr":"3571627110799155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>💪🌝👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>💪🌝👍","text":"$NIO 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Thank you! 🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358738365","repostId":"1132921453","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802592587,"gmtCreate":1627786416249,"gmtModify":1633756400993,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571627110799155","idStr":"3571627110799155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>HODL 💪🌝👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>HODL 💪🌝👍","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$HODL 💪🌝👍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53855d4ed7568952fbce730eeabfbeef","width":"1200","height":"2133"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802592587","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177290655,"gmtCreate":1627219106177,"gmtModify":1633767091313,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571627110799155","idStr":"3571627110799155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AMC, BB, SoFi! 💪🌝","listText":"AMC, BB, SoFi! 💪🌝","text":"AMC, BB, SoFi! 💪🌝","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177290655","repostId":"1107345366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107345366","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627176839,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107345366?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over<blockquote>游戏驿站：游戏远未结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107345366","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce pla","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.</li>  <li>We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.</li>  <li>In addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.</li>  <li>While we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.</li> </ul> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站已经对自己进行了改造，逐步成为主要的电子商务参与者。</li><li>我们认为，如果管理团队能够成功执行新的电子商务转型，该公司可能正处于拐点。</li><li>此外，鉴于Reddit社区不断增长的用户群及其对投资者决策过程的影响力，我们敦促看空者特别关注Reddit社区。</li><li>虽然我们在游戏驿站没有职位，但我们认为公司的游戏还没有结束。</li></ul><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> The speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站(GME)上次在1月份迅速上涨至每股480美元的极高水平，背后的投机热情已显着消退，该股上次交易价格为178美元，较1月份狂热期间达到的ATH下跌了63%。</blockquote></p><p> While we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们在很大程度上同意华尔街的估值意见，即这只股票似乎被严重高估（华尔街的平均目标价为37.5美元），但我们也想强调的是，我们认为我们目前没有一个估值模型可以全面纳入推动公司股价的潜在因素，因此不会大胆地向对meme股票感兴趣的投资者宣称远离GME。</blockquote></p><p> We thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:</p><p><blockquote>我们认为Marketer在6月份最近的这篇文章中描述了他们认为哪些因素可能推动了GME等Reddit论坛上meme股票背后的潜在需求：</blockquote></p><p>   Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.  We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.</p><p><blockquote>惩罚卖空者。Clover Health(CLOV)卖空者认为该股被高估，按市值计算损失了4.38亿美元。游戏驿站卖空者损失超过50亿美元。“为了迷因”迷惑市场——也就是说，这很有趣。r/WallStreetBets上的Reddit帖子强调了会员如何为了杜平金融机构的快乐而做出看似非理性的投资决策。人为抬高的股价可以为少数早期投资的幸运儿带来利润最大化。我们认为，接受过基本面分析教育的投资者永远无法开发出能够充分考虑上述因素的模型，因为这些投资者认为股票的长期价值是由其基础业务的长期实力和竞争护城河驱动的，但不是Redditors在分析股票时采用的“可笑”方法。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我们将更深入地探讨支撑GME业务的关键基本面驱动因素，以及我们认为Reddit社区对GME等meme股票的参与和影响力将如何继续扰乱该公司未来的估值前景。</blockquote></p><p> What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?</p><p><blockquote>自一月狂热以来，游戏驿站发生了什么变化？</blockquote></p><p> GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"</p><p><blockquote>GME最近任命了两位来自亚马逊(AMZN)的关键资深高管：Matt Furlong和Mike Recupero分别担任首席执行官和首席财务官，这是董事长Ryan Cohen对GME商业模式进行战略改革的一部分，旨在成为主要的“电子商务巨头”。</blockquote></p><p> While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.</p><p><blockquote>虽然到目前为止，新管理层的指导可能很少，但该团队肯定已经迅速开始工作，为逐步将GME转变为主要的电子商务参与者奠定必要的基础，因为他们已经开始扩大其履行中心，最近在内华达州里诺和宾夕法尼亚州约克新建了两个设施，使该公司的总产能超过120万平方英尺。</blockquote></p><p> Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>瑞安·科恩还明确表示，该公司不会向竞争对手详细说明其改革计划的复杂细节，而是呼吁投资者根据团队的行动来评判他们，正如他强调的那样：</blockquote></p><p>   You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.  However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现我们在谈论一场大游戏，做出一堆崇高的承诺，或者向竞争对手传达我们的战略...我们面前有很多工作要做。展望未来，我们希望你根据我们的行动而不是我们的言辞来判断游戏驿站。然而，华尔街几乎不相信瑞安·科恩或该公司的战略，正如Wedbush Securities最近所说：“我认为他逃脱了。我认为他的自我妨碍了，现在他要向所有人证明他知道自己在做什么。如果有一个策略，令人震惊的是他没有告诉我们。我们五个月前就应该听说这件事了。这是什么秘密？”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>季度收入。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM收入。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以观察到，该公司似乎已经能够在21年第4季度和22年第1季度阻止其收入下降的趋势（GME对其财年的定义与CY不同），这发生在新管理层上任之前很久。该公司21年第4季度的收入为$2.12 B，是过去3年中表现强劲的季度，而22年第1季度的收入同比增长25%。因此，当我们在LTM的基础上规划它时，我们认为地平线上有希望，也许新的管理团队在公司寻求成为重要的电子商务竞争对手的过程中可能会有一个令人鼓舞的开始。我们认为投资者应继续密切关注这一领域，特别是该公司履行中心的建设，这对于其电子商务雄心至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p><blockquote>LTM息税前利润率趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote></p><p> While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司的息税前利润率趋势无疑是一个主要问题，但我们认为这肯定是一个值得关注的领域，因为我们再次观察到LTM趋势有所改善，因为该公司在第一季度公布的LTM息税前利润率为-3.5%'22，而21年第4季度的LTM息税前利润率为-4.9%。虽然我们认为该公司尚未走出困境，但我们认为该公司可能已经停止了腐烂，至少目前是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>负债权益比率。资料来源：简单华尔街</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM杠杆自由现金流保证金。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还巧妙地利用其股价完成了两次股票发行，以支撑其资产负债表。因此，该公司的债务股本比率大幅提高至5.5%，债务余额仅为4810万美元，而现金和ST投资余额为6.947亿美元（截至21年5月1日，在两次股票发行之前，共筹集了16.77亿美元，在削减债务之前）。此外，该公司也从未真正流失现金，因为其杠杆自由现金流利润率趋势一直相对健康，同时最近一个季度还将LTM杠杆自由现金流利润率提高至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为，如果管理层能够成功执行向前迈进，GME看起来完全有能力利用其战略改革，转向新的电子商务支点。虽然我们目前不太确定GME未来的路线图，但Reddit社区似乎已准备好继续支持这家公司，因为我们将详细介绍Reddit社区将如何继续成为一支非常重要的力量。为了提振公司股价，就连Ryan Cohen也特意向Reddit社区表示特别敬意：</blockquote></p><p>   We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.  <b>The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020</b></p><p><blockquote>我们很幸运有这样一群特殊的投资者持有公司股票，你们激励我们每天想得更大、更努力、工作时间更长。<b>2020年Reddit社区增长25.9%</b></blockquote></p><p> US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer</p><p><blockquote>2020年和2021年美国社交网络用户增长（按平台划分）。资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够观察到，Reddit在2020年实现了非常显着的增长，其平台上的用户同比增长了25.9%，Marketer还预计Reddit社区在2021年将增长14.4%，达到4330万用户。我们认为，Reddit的日益普及将继续维持投资者对GME等模因股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2019年美国按世代划分的人口分布。数据来源：美国人口普查局</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，Reddit无疑受益于支撑数字化的长期驱动因素，这也导致了Robinhood(HOOD)等交易平台的显着增长和受欢迎程度，该平台2020年的平均年龄为31岁。根据2019年的人口普查，这使得Robinhood用户的平均年龄正好在千禧一代的年龄组内，他们出生于1981年至1996年之间（25至40岁），占美国人口的21.97%。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，我们还可以观察到，千禧一代投资者对的股票不是典型投资者预期持有的“安全稳定”股票感兴趣（如果我可以这么说的话）。正如我们从上面可以观察到的那样，我们认为估值并不是这些投资者最重要的考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.</p><p><blockquote>根据Apex Clearing的一份报告，特斯拉(TSLA)在21年第一季度成为千禧一代投资组合中最大的持股，占28.3%的份额，我们认为投资者通常不会说这只股票便宜。虽然AAPL以14.5%的份额位居第二，但GME也以5.2%的份额跻身前四，这支持了我们的观点，即千禧一代投资者的动机是由基本面和估值以外的因素驱动的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在千禧一代投资组合中的持股中，我们可以观察到许多其他例子来证实这些投资者对优质股票的兴趣，例如英伟达(NVDA)，另一只模因股票，如AMC院线(AMC)、Churchill Capital Corp(CCIV)，其第三大持股；蔚来（蔚来）、Palantir（PLTR），甚至Square（SQ），我们认为投资者通常不会将这些股票视为价值股。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为普通投资者群体需要明白，有一个庞大且不断增长的投资者基础，他们对基本面和估值的理解和预期肯定与我们典型的估值模型所能解释的有很大不同。</blockquote></p><p> We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为市场肯定比我们所知道的更大、更复杂，而且不可能使用相同的基本面分析和估值方法来评估像GME这样的模因股票并说它们被高估，这是一个我们诚实地认为的过程在模因股票投资领域毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Analyzing the Reddit Opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析Reddit观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick</p><p><blockquote>截至2月21日，美国、英国和加拿大游戏驿站轧空后个人投资者在Reddit上的看法（按年龄）。数据来源：Brunswick</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.</p><p><blockquote>根据Brunswick的一项调查，我们可以观察到Reddit论坛作为投资者投资工具的重要性，尤其是在18-29岁年龄段的年轻投资者中。大约14%的投资者“信任Reddit作为媒体替代品”，在年轻投资者中，这一比例甚至飙升至31%。此外，很大一部分（25%）的年轻投资者也参与了GME机会，而其中20%的人认为GME事件“代表了市场力量的根本性转变”。虽然这些观点可能属于少数投资者，但我们认为投资者的比例肯定足够大，足以引起一般投资界的关注，因此我们认为Reddit论坛的力量肯定是一股不可忽视的力量。前进。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国、英国和加拿大使用Reddit调查问题的机构投资者比例。数据来源：Brunswick</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国、英国和加拿大机构投资者对Reddit的平均信任评分。数据来源：Brunswick</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.</p><p><blockquote>我们甚至可以观察到Reddit在机构投资者中的影响力越来越大，因为27%的人使用Reddit来“调查问题”，这比前几年明显增加，尽管他们对该平台的信任度从2019年的平均分3.5分明显下降到2021年的2.0分。我们认为这表明机构投资者认为Reddit在一般投资界决策过程中的影响力越来越大，但与之前展示的个人投资者相比，他们不相信这些论坛上发生的事情对他们“发达”的过程有足够的意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构投资者对Reddit wallstreetbets社区成员的态度。数据来源：Brunswick</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.</p><p><blockquote>虽然48%的机构投资者认为Reddit用户“可能有短期影响力，但他们无法维持这种影响力”，但27%的人对Reddit在投资者群体中的影响力产生了一些好奇心，13%的人对Reddit用户能够聚集一支军队以超越华尔街一些最聪明的头脑的方式产生了某种形式的尊重。因此，我们毫不惊讶地发现，这些机构投资者中有20%对他们认为的Reddit用户的“市场操纵”感到沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>所有权细分。资料来源：简单华尔街</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构所有权变更。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们认为像GME这样的模因股票将继续在Reddit论坛中占据显着地位，并仍然是他们对抗华尔街的“旗舰”股票之一。散户投资者目前持有GME股票的最大份额，占总持股量的45.1%。有趣的是，仍有相当大比例（36.4%）的机构投资者仍然持有GME，其中包括GME最大股东：贝莱德，拥有GME 12.36%的股票。尽管GME在21年第二季度见证了19.3亿美元的机构资本大幅流出，但股价仍远高于2021年第一个交易日17.25美元的收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>随着时间的推移，流通量短缺的百分比。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，尽管空头流通量百分比已从1月份的41.96%大幅下降至6月底的“仅”14.18%，这是2021年有记录的两周最低水平，但价格仍继续维持。</blockquote></p><p> Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.</p><p><blockquote>除了持有GME的45.1%散户投资者外，该股还得到瑞安·科恩12.13%股份的支持，这使他成为GME股票的第二大股东，仅次于贝莱德，尽管他最后一批股票的购买价格12月20日的127.4万股约为14.24美元，如果我们考虑到GME最后收盘价178.85美元，这无疑给了他巨大的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>自从我们在今年年初目睹的狂热以来，GME已经稳定下来，似乎已经形成了上升趋势偏差，其支撑位在之前的130美元至160美元价格水平之间吸引了强烈的购买兴趣。根据我们的价格走势分析，我们预计买家将继续强烈捍卫这一水平。对于热衷于持有GME头寸的投资者，我们认为他们可能会考虑在我们强调的买入范围内入场。</blockquote></p><p> While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:</p><p><blockquote>阿斯滕汉姆资产管理公司表示，虽然我们相信游戏驿站的价格波动可能会继续下去，但我们认为该股在散户群体中引起了令人难以置信的巨大购买兴趣，这动摇了机构投资者的基础：</blockquote></p><p>   \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”  In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.</p><p><blockquote>“在当前环境下，如果你不衡量和管理你对拥挤和散户兴趣的空头敞口，那你就是疏忽了，”我们认为一家价值数十亿美元的美国对冲基金也简洁地总结了这一点。Reddit社区的影响力：“[我们]绝对在关注WSB等论坛，我们正在非常密切地关注这一点。”在游戏驿站，我们认为游戏肯定远未结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop: The Game Is Far From Over<blockquote>游戏驿站：游戏远未结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 09:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.</li>  <li>We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.</li>  <li>In addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.</li>  <li>While we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.</li> </ul> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站已经对自己进行了改造，逐步成为主要的电子商务参与者。</li><li>我们认为，如果管理团队能够成功执行新的电子商务转型，该公司可能正处于拐点。</li><li>此外，鉴于Reddit社区不断增长的用户群及其对投资者决策过程的影响力，我们敦促看空者特别关注Reddit社区。</li><li>虽然我们在游戏驿站没有职位，但我们认为公司的游戏还没有结束。</li></ul><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> The speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站(GME)上次在1月份迅速上涨至每股480美元的极高水平，背后的投机热情已显着消退，该股上次交易价格为178美元，较1月份狂热期间达到的ATH下跌了63%。</blockquote></p><p> While we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们在很大程度上同意华尔街的估值意见，即这只股票似乎被严重高估（华尔街的平均目标价为37.5美元），但我们也想强调的是，我们认为我们目前没有一个估值模型可以全面纳入推动公司股价的潜在因素，因此不会大胆地向对meme股票感兴趣的投资者宣称远离GME。</blockquote></p><p> We thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:</p><p><blockquote>我们认为Marketer在6月份最近的这篇文章中描述了他们认为哪些因素可能推动了GME等Reddit论坛上meme股票背后的潜在需求：</blockquote></p><p>   Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.  We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.</p><p><blockquote>惩罚卖空者。Clover Health(CLOV)卖空者认为该股被高估，按市值计算损失了4.38亿美元。游戏驿站卖空者损失超过50亿美元。“为了迷因”迷惑市场——也就是说，这很有趣。r/WallStreetBets上的Reddit帖子强调了会员如何为了杜平金融机构的快乐而做出看似非理性的投资决策。人为抬高的股价可以为少数早期投资的幸运儿带来利润最大化。我们认为，接受过基本面分析教育的投资者永远无法开发出能够充分考虑上述因素的模型，因为这些投资者认为股票的长期价值是由其基础业务的长期实力和竞争护城河驱动的，但不是Redditors在分析股票时采用的“可笑”方法。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我们将更深入地探讨支撑GME业务的关键基本面驱动因素，以及我们认为Reddit社区对GME等meme股票的参与和影响力将如何继续扰乱该公司未来的估值前景。</blockquote></p><p> What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?</p><p><blockquote>自一月狂热以来，游戏驿站发生了什么变化？</blockquote></p><p> GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"</p><p><blockquote>GME最近任命了两位来自亚马逊(AMZN)的关键资深高管：Matt Furlong和Mike Recupero分别担任首席执行官和首席财务官，这是董事长Ryan Cohen对GME商业模式进行战略改革的一部分，旨在成为主要的“电子商务巨头”。</blockquote></p><p> While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.</p><p><blockquote>虽然到目前为止，新管理层的指导可能很少，但该团队肯定已经迅速开始工作，为逐步将GME转变为主要的电子商务参与者奠定必要的基础，因为他们已经开始扩大其履行中心，最近在内华达州里诺和宾夕法尼亚州约克新建了两个设施，使该公司的总产能超过120万平方英尺。</blockquote></p><p> Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>瑞安·科恩还明确表示，该公司不会向竞争对手详细说明其改革计划的复杂细节，而是呼吁投资者根据团队的行动来评判他们，正如他强调的那样：</blockquote></p><p>   You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.  However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现我们在谈论一场大游戏，做出一堆崇高的承诺，或者向竞争对手传达我们的战略...我们面前有很多工作要做。展望未来，我们希望你根据我们的行动而不是我们的言辞来判断游戏驿站。然而，华尔街几乎不相信瑞安·科恩或该公司的战略，正如Wedbush Securities最近所说：“我认为他逃脱了。我认为他的自我妨碍了，现在他要向所有人证明他知道自己在做什么。如果有一个策略，令人震惊的是他没有告诉我们。我们五个月前就应该听说这件事了。这是什么秘密？”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>季度收入。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM收入。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以观察到，该公司似乎已经能够在21年第4季度和22年第1季度阻止其收入下降的趋势（GME对其财年的定义与CY不同），这发生在新管理层上任之前很久。该公司21年第4季度的收入为$2.12 B，是过去3年中表现强劲的季度，而22年第1季度的收入同比增长25%。因此，当我们在LTM的基础上规划它时，我们认为地平线上有希望，也许新的管理团队在公司寻求成为重要的电子商务竞争对手的过程中可能会有一个令人鼓舞的开始。我们认为投资者应继续密切关注这一领域，特别是该公司履行中心的建设，这对于其电子商务雄心至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p><blockquote>LTM息税前利润率趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote></p><p> While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司的息税前利润率趋势无疑是一个主要问题，但我们认为这肯定是一个值得关注的领域，因为我们再次观察到LTM趋势有所改善，因为该公司在第一季度公布的LTM息税前利润率为-3.5%'22，而21年第4季度的LTM息税前利润率为-4.9%。虽然我们认为该公司尚未走出困境，但我们认为该公司可能已经停止了腐烂，至少目前是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>负债权益比率。资料来源：简单华尔街</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM杠杆自由现金流保证金。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还巧妙地利用其股价完成了两次股票发行，以支撑其资产负债表。因此，该公司的债务股本比率大幅提高至5.5%，债务余额仅为4810万美元，而现金和ST投资余额为6.947亿美元（截至21年5月1日，在两次股票发行之前，共筹集了16.77亿美元，在削减债务之前）。此外，该公司也从未真正流失现金，因为其杠杆自由现金流利润率趋势一直相对健康，同时最近一个季度还将LTM杠杆自由现金流利润率提高至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为，如果管理层能够成功执行向前迈进，GME看起来完全有能力利用其战略改革，转向新的电子商务支点。虽然我们目前不太确定GME未来的路线图，但Reddit社区似乎已准备好继续支持这家公司，因为我们将详细介绍Reddit社区将如何继续成为一支非常重要的力量。为了提振公司股价，就连Ryan Cohen也特意向Reddit社区表示特别敬意：</blockquote></p><p>   We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.  <b>The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020</b></p><p><blockquote>我们很幸运有这样一群特殊的投资者持有公司股票，你们激励我们每天想得更大、更努力、工作时间更长。<b>2020年Reddit社区增长25.9%</b></blockquote></p><p> US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer</p><p><blockquote>2020年和2021年美国社交网络用户增长（按平台划分）。资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够观察到，Reddit在2020年实现了非常显着的增长，其平台上的用户同比增长了25.9%，Marketer还预计Reddit社区在2021年将增长14.4%，达到4330万用户。我们认为，Reddit的日益普及将继续维持投资者对GME等模因股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2019年美国按世代划分的人口分布。数据来源：美国人口普查局</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，Reddit无疑受益于支撑数字化的长期驱动因素，这也导致了Robinhood(HOOD)等交易平台的显着增长和受欢迎程度，该平台2020年的平均年龄为31岁。根据2019年的人口普查，这使得Robinhood用户的平均年龄正好在千禧一代的年龄组内，他们出生于1981年至1996年之间（25至40岁），占美国人口的21.97%。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，我们还可以观察到，千禧一代投资者对的股票不是典型投资者预期持有的“安全稳定”股票感兴趣（如果我可以这么说的话）。正如我们从上面可以观察到的那样，我们认为估值并不是这些投资者最重要的考虑因素。</blockquote></p><p> According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.</p><p><blockquote>根据Apex Clearing的一份报告，特斯拉(TSLA)在21年第一季度成为千禧一代投资组合中最大的持股，占28.3%的份额，我们认为投资者通常不会说这只股票便宜。虽然AAPL以14.5%的份额位居第二，但GME也以5.2%的份额跻身前四，这支持了我们的观点，即千禧一代投资者的动机是由基本面和估值以外的因素驱动的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在千禧一代投资组合中的持股中，我们可以观察到许多其他例子来证实这些投资者对优质股票的兴趣，例如英伟达(NVDA)，另一只模因股票，如AMC院线(AMC)、Churchill Capital Corp(CCIV)，其第三大持股；蔚来（蔚来）、Palantir（PLTR），甚至Square（SQ），我们认为投资者通常不会将这些股票视为价值股。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们认为普通投资者群体需要明白，有一个庞大且不断增长的投资者基础，他们对基本面和估值的理解和预期肯定与我们典型的估值模型所能解释的有很大不同。</blockquote></p><p> We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为市场肯定比我们所知道的更大、更复杂，而且不可能使用相同的基本面分析和估值方法来评估像GME这样的模因股票并说它们被高估，这是一个我们诚实地认为的过程在模因股票投资领域毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Analyzing the Reddit Opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析Reddit观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick</p><p><blockquote>截至2月21日，美国、英国和加拿大游戏驿站轧空后个人投资者在Reddit上的看法（按年龄）。数据来源：Brunswick</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.</p><p><blockquote>根据Brunswick的一项调查，我们可以观察到Reddit论坛作为投资者投资工具的重要性，尤其是在18-29岁年龄段的年轻投资者中。大约14%的投资者“信任Reddit作为媒体替代品”，在年轻投资者中，这一比例甚至飙升至31%。此外，很大一部分（25%）的年轻投资者也参与了GME机会，而其中20%的人认为GME事件“代表了市场力量的根本性转变”。虽然这些观点可能属于少数投资者，但我们认为投资者的比例肯定足够大，足以引起一般投资界的关注，因此我们认为Reddit论坛的力量肯定是一股不可忽视的力量。前进。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国、英国和加拿大使用Reddit调查问题的机构投资者比例。数据来源：Brunswick</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国、英国和加拿大机构投资者对Reddit的平均信任评分。数据来源：Brunswick</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.</p><p><blockquote>我们甚至可以观察到Reddit在机构投资者中的影响力越来越大，因为27%的人使用Reddit来“调查问题”，这比前几年明显增加，尽管他们对该平台的信任度从2019年的平均分3.5分明显下降到2021年的2.0分。我们认为这表明机构投资者认为Reddit在一般投资界决策过程中的影响力越来越大，但与之前展示的个人投资者相比，他们不相信这些论坛上发生的事情对他们“发达”的过程有足够的意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构投资者对Reddit wallstreetbets社区成员的态度。数据来源：Brunswick</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.</p><p><blockquote>虽然48%的机构投资者认为Reddit用户“可能有短期影响力，但他们无法维持这种影响力”，但27%的人对Reddit在投资者群体中的影响力产生了一些好奇心，13%的人对Reddit用户能够聚集一支军队以超越华尔街一些最聪明的头脑的方式产生了某种形式的尊重。因此，我们毫不惊讶地发现，这些机构投资者中有20%对他们认为的Reddit用户的“市场操纵”感到沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St</p><p><blockquote>所有权细分。资料来源：简单华尔街</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>机构所有权变更。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们认为像GME这样的模因股票将继续在Reddit论坛中占据显着地位，并仍然是他们对抗华尔街的“旗舰”股票之一。散户投资者目前持有GME股票的最大份额，占总持股量的45.1%。有趣的是，仍有相当大比例（36.4%）的机构投资者仍然持有GME，其中包括GME最大股东：贝莱德，拥有GME 12.36%的股票。尽管GME在21年第二季度见证了19.3亿美元的机构资本大幅流出，但股价仍远高于2021年第一个交易日17.25美元的收盘价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>随着时间的推移，流通量短缺的百分比。资料来源：Marketbeat</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，尽管空头流通量百分比已从1月份的41.96%大幅下降至6月底的“仅”14.18%，这是2021年有记录的两周最低水平，但价格仍继续维持。</blockquote></p><p> Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.</p><p><blockquote>除了持有GME的45.1%散户投资者外，该股还得到瑞安·科恩12.13%股份的支持，这使他成为GME股票的第二大股东，仅次于贝莱德，尽管他最后一批股票的购买价格12月20日的127.4万股约为14.24美元，如果我们考虑到GME最后收盘价178.85美元，这无疑给了他巨大的安全边际。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>自从我们在今年年初目睹的狂热以来，GME已经稳定下来，似乎已经形成了上升趋势偏差，其支撑位在之前的130美元至160美元价格水平之间吸引了强烈的购买兴趣。根据我们的价格走势分析，我们预计买家将继续强烈捍卫这一水平。对于热衷于持有GME头寸的投资者，我们认为他们可能会考虑在我们强调的买入范围内入场。</blockquote></p><p> While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:</p><p><blockquote>阿斯滕汉姆资产管理公司表示，虽然我们相信游戏驿站的价格波动可能会继续下去，但我们认为该股在散户群体中引起了令人难以置信的巨大购买兴趣，这动摇了机构投资者的基础：</blockquote></p><p>   \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”  In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.</p><p><blockquote>“在当前环境下，如果你不衡量和管理你对拥挤和散户兴趣的空头敞口，那你就是疏忽了，”我们认为一家价值数十亿美元的美国对冲基金也简洁地总结了这一点。Reddit社区的影响力：“[我们]绝对在关注WSB等论坛，我们正在非常密切地关注这一点。”在游戏驿站，我们认为游戏肯定远未结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107345366","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.\nIn addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.\nWhile we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nThe speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.\nWhile we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.\nWe thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:\n\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n\nWe think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.\nIn this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.\nWhat Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?\nGME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"\nWhile the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.\nRyan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:\n\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n\nHowever, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”\nQuarterly revenues. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLTM revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.\nLTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.\nDebt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St\nLTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.\nTherefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:\n\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n\nThe Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020\nUS social network user growth, by platform 2020 & 2021. Source:eMarketer\nInvestors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.\nPopulation distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau\nWe believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.\nImportantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.\nAccording to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.\nAmong the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.\nTherefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.\nWe think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.\nAnalyzing the Reddit Opinion\nIndividual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick\nAccording to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.\nShare of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nAverage trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nWe could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.\nInstitutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick\nWhile 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.\nLooking Ahead\nOwnership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St\nInstitutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat\nMoving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.\nPercentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat\nImportantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.\nOther than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nEver since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.\nWhile we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:\n\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n\nIn GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141502679,"gmtCreate":1625878536791,"gmtModify":1631885414334,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571627110799155","idStr":"3571627110799155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>sharing for coins.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>sharing for coins.","text":"$BlackBerry(BB)$sharing for coins.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e252ed2fa4a8ed4b4786b90d87a166f","width":"1200","height":"2133"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141502679","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160283972,"gmtCreate":1623799544396,"gmtModify":1634028149825,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571627110799155","idStr":"3571627110799155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla 👍","listText":"Tesla 👍","text":"Tesla 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160283972","repostId":"1179958588","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179958588","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623766192,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179958588?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Going Through A \"Rather Dry Spell\", Says Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas<blockquote>Morgan Stanley的Adam Jonas表示，特斯拉正在经历一段“相当干燥的时期”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179958588","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In most respects, the latest note from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley on Tesla has been more of the sa","content":"<p>In most respects, the latest note from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley on Tesla has been more of the same.</p><p><blockquote>在大多数方面，摩根士丹利Adam Jonas关于特斯拉的最新报告大同小异。</blockquote></p><p> You've got your bona fide comedy, as Jonas starts his note&nbsp;by saying \"Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for&nbsp;the stock,\" before defending his $900 price target on the name...</p><p><blockquote>你已经得到了你真正的喜剧，正如乔纳斯在他的笔记开始时所说的那样，“让我们在股票的起点上以健康的智力诚实开始”，然后为他900美元的目标价辩护...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9cc9bfba9fba1bf3593b4b6f4e20dbf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> You've got your \"pie in the sky\" style lofty estimates about a SaaS revenue stream that doesn't exist and that the company likely doesn't even have the infrastructure for...</p><p><blockquote>你对SaaS的收入流做出了“天上掉馅饼”式的高估，而这种收入流并不存在，而且该公司可能甚至没有基础设施...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e525d8ff30b02cefbdc8daecdcfcca7b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">You've got your insane valuation for Tesla's insurance business...</p><p><blockquote>你对特斯拉保险业务的估值太疯狂了...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67267c0686d45416d0cb73fda3e253c7\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">...and finally, you've got your proclamation that Tesla is going to exceed its timelines for autonomous productions. You know, because the company has been so masterful with handling timelines in the past.</p><p><blockquote>......最后，你宣布特斯拉将超越自主制作的时间表。你知道，因为该公司过去在处理时间表方面非常熟练。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7526beef593477f8a494eac3cd07e6f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"97\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> All told, it was a pretty standard Adam Jonas ticker tape parade for the company.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，对于该公司来说，这是一次非常标准的亚当·乔纳斯股票盘带游行。</blockquote></p><p> But tucked into what can only be described as the \"endless optimism\" of Jonas' note was an interesting point that the analyst made.<b>Namely, he appears to make the suggestion that CEO Elon Musk's latest obsession with bitcoin is indicative that Tesla's underlying business could be going through a \"dry spell\".</b></p><p><blockquote>但在乔纳斯的报告中只能被描述为“无尽的乐观”的内容中，分析师提出了一个有趣的观点。<b>也就是说，他似乎暗示首席执行官Elon Musk最近对比特币的痴迷表明特斯拉的基础业务可能正在经历“干旱期”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Over the past couple of months, incoming client interest on Tesla is focused mostly on Chinese sales/production data and Elon Musk’s tweets regarding Bitcoin. Might Tesla-Bitcoin fever may be telling us something about the lull in Tesla sentiment?</b>\" Jonas asks toward the beginning of his note.</p><p><blockquote><b>“在过去的几个月里，客户对特斯拉的兴趣主要集中在中国的销售/生产数据和Elon Musk有关比特币的推文上。特斯拉-比特币热可能告诉我们一些有关特斯拉情绪平静的信息吗？</b>”乔纳斯在笔记的开头问道。</blockquote></p><p> He continues:<b>\"You just know it’s a rather dry spell for Tesla when Bitcoin is the dominant new story and dominant driver of investor discussion day in, day out.</b>In our opinion, what’s considerably more interesting than ‘decoding’ the TSLA-Bitcoin relationship is the fact that there is a virtual ‘vacuum’ of developments and news related to other areas of technological and commercial progress that the company is involved with on renewable energy, storage networking and transportation.\"</p><p><blockquote>他继续说道：<b>“你只知道，对于特斯拉来说，这是一个相当干燥的时期，比特币是主要的新故事和投资者日复一日讨论的主要驱动力。</b>我们认为，比“解码”特斯拉与比特币的关系更有趣的是，与该公司参与的其他技术和商业进步领域相关的发展和新闻实际上存在“真空”能源、存储网络和运输。”</blockquote></p><p> He begrudgingly concludes&nbsp;about Tesla's underwhelming Model S Plaid unveil: \"<b>Yes, the Model S Plaid unveil was fun, but where’s the next ‘big’ development to move the company forward?\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他不情愿地总结了特斯拉平淡无奇的Model S Plaid发布会：“<b>是的，Model S Plaid的亮相很有趣，但推动公司前进的下一个‘重大’发展在哪里？”</b></blockquote></p><p> The lines even stood out CNBC's Carl Quintanilla who pointed it out early this morning.</p><p><blockquote>这些台词甚至引起了CNBC的卡尔·金塔尼拉(Carl Quintanilla)的注意，他今天早上就指出了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec9ba5f7279aee4c62994fd1495bdcec\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"530\">It's interesting to note this level of what appears to just be bemusement and exhaustion from Jonas. But whether or not it sticks out to the \"sophisticated investors\" buying Tesla stock remains another question...</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，乔纳斯似乎只是困惑和疲惫。但它是否会引起购买特斯拉股票的“老练投资者”的注意仍然是另一个问题……</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Going Through A \"Rather Dry Spell\", Says Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas<blockquote>Morgan Stanley的Adam Jonas表示，特斯拉正在经历一段“相当干燥的时期”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Going Through A \"Rather Dry Spell\", Says Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas<blockquote>Morgan Stanley的Adam Jonas表示，特斯拉正在经历一段“相当干燥的时期”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 22:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In most respects, the latest note from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley on Tesla has been more of the same.</p><p><blockquote>在大多数方面，摩根士丹利Adam Jonas关于特斯拉的最新报告大同小异。</blockquote></p><p> You've got your bona fide comedy, as Jonas starts his note&nbsp;by saying \"Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for&nbsp;the stock,\" before defending his $900 price target on the name...</p><p><blockquote>你已经得到了你真正的喜剧，正如乔纳斯在他的笔记开始时所说的那样，“让我们在股票的起点上以健康的智力诚实开始”，然后为他900美元的目标价辩护...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9cc9bfba9fba1bf3593b4b6f4e20dbf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> You've got your \"pie in the sky\" style lofty estimates about a SaaS revenue stream that doesn't exist and that the company likely doesn't even have the infrastructure for...</p><p><blockquote>你对SaaS的收入流做出了“天上掉馅饼”式的高估，而这种收入流并不存在，而且该公司可能甚至没有基础设施...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e525d8ff30b02cefbdc8daecdcfcca7b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">You've got your insane valuation for Tesla's insurance business...</p><p><blockquote>你对特斯拉保险业务的估值太疯狂了...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67267c0686d45416d0cb73fda3e253c7\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">...and finally, you've got your proclamation that Tesla is going to exceed its timelines for autonomous productions. You know, because the company has been so masterful with handling timelines in the past.</p><p><blockquote>......最后，你宣布特斯拉将超越自主制作的时间表。你知道，因为该公司过去在处理时间表方面非常熟练。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7526beef593477f8a494eac3cd07e6f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"97\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> All told, it was a pretty standard Adam Jonas ticker tape parade for the company.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，对于该公司来说，这是一次非常标准的亚当·乔纳斯股票盘带游行。</blockquote></p><p> But tucked into what can only be described as the \"endless optimism\" of Jonas' note was an interesting point that the analyst made.<b>Namely, he appears to make the suggestion that CEO Elon Musk's latest obsession with bitcoin is indicative that Tesla's underlying business could be going through a \"dry spell\".</b></p><p><blockquote>但在乔纳斯的报告中只能被描述为“无尽的乐观”的内容中，分析师提出了一个有趣的观点。<b>也就是说，他似乎暗示首席执行官Elon Musk最近对比特币的痴迷表明特斯拉的基础业务可能正在经历“干旱期”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>\"Over the past couple of months, incoming client interest on Tesla is focused mostly on Chinese sales/production data and Elon Musk’s tweets regarding Bitcoin. Might Tesla-Bitcoin fever may be telling us something about the lull in Tesla sentiment?</b>\" Jonas asks toward the beginning of his note.</p><p><blockquote><b>“在过去的几个月里，客户对特斯拉的兴趣主要集中在中国的销售/生产数据和Elon Musk有关比特币的推文上。特斯拉-比特币热可能告诉我们一些有关特斯拉情绪平静的信息吗？</b>”乔纳斯在笔记的开头问道。</blockquote></p><p> He continues:<b>\"You just know it’s a rather dry spell for Tesla when Bitcoin is the dominant new story and dominant driver of investor discussion day in, day out.</b>In our opinion, what’s considerably more interesting than ‘decoding’ the TSLA-Bitcoin relationship is the fact that there is a virtual ‘vacuum’ of developments and news related to other areas of technological and commercial progress that the company is involved with on renewable energy, storage networking and transportation.\"</p><p><blockquote>他继续说道：<b>“你只知道，对于特斯拉来说，这是一个相当干燥的时期，比特币是主要的新故事和投资者日复一日讨论的主要驱动力。</b>我们认为，比“解码”特斯拉与比特币的关系更有趣的是，与该公司参与的其他技术和商业进步领域相关的发展和新闻实际上存在“真空”能源、存储网络和运输。”</blockquote></p><p> He begrudgingly concludes&nbsp;about Tesla's underwhelming Model S Plaid unveil: \"<b>Yes, the Model S Plaid unveil was fun, but where’s the next ‘big’ development to move the company forward?\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他不情愿地总结了特斯拉平淡无奇的Model S Plaid发布会：“<b>是的，Model S Plaid的亮相很有趣，但推动公司前进的下一个‘重大’发展在哪里？”</b></blockquote></p><p> The lines even stood out CNBC's Carl Quintanilla who pointed it out early this morning.</p><p><blockquote>这些台词甚至引起了CNBC的卡尔·金塔尼拉(Carl Quintanilla)的注意，他今天早上就指出了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec9ba5f7279aee4c62994fd1495bdcec\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"530\">It's interesting to note this level of what appears to just be bemusement and exhaustion from Jonas. But whether or not it sticks out to the \"sophisticated investors\" buying Tesla stock remains another question...</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，乔纳斯似乎只是困惑和疲惫。但它是否会引起购买特斯拉股票的“老练投资者”的注意仍然是另一个问题……</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-going-through-rather-dry-spell-says-morgan-stanleys-adam-jonas\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-going-through-rather-dry-spell-says-morgan-stanleys-adam-jonas","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179958588","content_text":"In most respects, the latest note from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley on Tesla has been more of the same.\nYou've got your bona fide comedy, as Jonas starts his note by saying \"Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,\" before defending his $900 price target on the name...\n\nYou've got your \"pie in the sky\" style lofty estimates about a SaaS revenue stream that doesn't exist and that the company likely doesn't even have the infrastructure for...\nYou've got your insane valuation for Tesla's insurance business...\n...and finally, you've got your proclamation that Tesla is going to exceed its timelines for autonomous productions. You know, because the company has been so masterful with handling timelines in the past.\n\nAll told, it was a pretty standard Adam Jonas ticker tape parade for the company.\nBut tucked into what can only be described as the \"endless optimism\" of Jonas' note was an interesting point that the analyst made.Namely, he appears to make the suggestion that CEO Elon Musk's latest obsession with bitcoin is indicative that Tesla's underlying business could be going through a \"dry spell\".\n\"Over the past couple of months, incoming client interest on Tesla is focused mostly on Chinese sales/production data and Elon Musk’s tweets regarding Bitcoin. Might Tesla-Bitcoin fever may be telling us something about the lull in Tesla sentiment?\" Jonas asks toward the beginning of his note.\nHe continues:\"You just know it’s a rather dry spell for Tesla when Bitcoin is the dominant new story and dominant driver of investor discussion day in, day out.In our opinion, what’s considerably more interesting than ‘decoding’ the TSLA-Bitcoin relationship is the fact that there is a virtual ‘vacuum’ of developments and news related to other areas of technological and commercial progress that the company is involved with on renewable energy, storage networking and transportation.\"\nHe begrudgingly concludes about Tesla's underwhelming Model S Plaid unveil: \"Yes, the Model S Plaid unveil was fun, but where’s the next ‘big’ development to move the company forward?\"\nThe lines even stood out CNBC's Carl Quintanilla who pointed it out early this morning.\nIt's interesting to note this level of what appears to just be bemusement and exhaustion from Jonas. But whether or not it sticks out to the \"sophisticated investors\" buying Tesla stock remains another question...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352232043,"gmtCreate":1616977620682,"gmtModify":1634523379886,"author":{"id":"3571627110799155","authorId":"3571627110799155","name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571627110799155","idStr":"3571627110799155"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment! Thank you!&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment! Thank you!&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment! Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352232043","repostId":"1111192234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111192234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616772179,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111192234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉交付即将到来。它们比以往任何时候都重要。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111192234","media":"Barrons","summary":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla. Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors and Ford Motor have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and","content":"<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度再过几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商的更多交付数据即将发布。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更重要。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等估值高、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是2021年10亿美元利润的阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到了这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商一个通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不仁慈。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）将第一季度交付量指引从约20,250辆下调至约19,500辆，该公司股价在周五交易中下跌超过6%。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从3月29日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉，华尔街正在寻找3月份交付的约16.2万辆汽车。这低于峰值估计的约183,000辆。分析师似乎正在减少数量，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约18.1万辆汽车。分析师预计2021年全年汽车交付量将接近80万辆，同比增长约60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>RBC分析师Joe Spak预测第一季度交付量为17万辆，同比增长90%以上。他还预测，本季度特斯拉将在加州生产96,000辆汽车，在中国生产74,000辆汽车。斯帕克在周四的一份报告中写道：“共识[估计]看起来基本合理。”“我们确实在寻找最新消息，以了解semi短缺如何影响特斯拉——就像它对行业其他部门一样。”他认为，由于芯片的原因，预期存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标价为725美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。利率上升主要以两种方式影响成长型股票。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在遥远的未来产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以用现金赚取更高的利率时，现金流的价值就会低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在2020年上涨超过740%后，今年迄今已下跌约10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌0.9%，至634.40美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉交付即将到来。它们比以往任何时候都重要。这是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉交付即将到来。它们比以往任何时候都重要。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 23:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度再过几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商的更多交付数据即将发布。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更重要。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等估值高、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是2021年10亿美元利润的阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到了这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商一个通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不仁慈。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）将第一季度交付量指引从约20,250辆下调至约19,500辆，该公司股价在周五交易中下跌超过6%。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从3月29日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉，华尔街正在寻找3月份交付的约16.2万辆汽车。这低于峰值估计的约183,000辆。分析师似乎正在减少数量，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约18.1万辆汽车。分析师预计2021年全年汽车交付量将接近80万辆，同比增长约60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>RBC分析师Joe Spak预测第一季度交付量为17万辆，同比增长90%以上。他还预测，本季度特斯拉将在加州生产96,000辆汽车，在中国生产74,000辆汽车。斯帕克在周四的一份报告中写道：“共识[估计]看起来基本合理。”“我们确实在寻找最新消息，以了解semi短缺如何影响特斯拉——就像它对行业其他部门一样。”他认为，由于芯片的原因，预期存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标价为725美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。利率上升主要以两种方式影响成长型股票。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在遥远的未来产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以用现金赚取更高的利率时，现金流的价值就会低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在2020年上涨超过740%后，今年迄今已下跌约10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌0.9%，至634.40美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111192234","content_text":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.\nNumbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors(GM) and Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.\nEveryone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.\nSo far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.\nNIO shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker reduced guidance for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.\nFor Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.\nTesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.\nRBC analyst Joe Spak is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.\nSpak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.\nIn the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.\nTesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The S&P 500is up about 0.7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}