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Davidyapp

Davidyapp

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2021-08-12

When will it crash? 😂

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2021-08-11

Will it be forever up? 🤔

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2021-08-06

Careful now guys, market volatility increasedover time

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2021-07-29

Good article

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2021-07-03

Alibaba is super undervalued now. Growth + value invest in a single stock.

Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>

2021-06-26

highest market cap company 👍🏼

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2021-06-25

Growth > dividends 🙊

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2021-06-25

ATH

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2021-06-24

Nice

Luminar rose 12% in morning trading<blockquote>Luminar早盘上涨12%</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Nice

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2021-06-22

Strong rebound

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2021-06-22

Strong rebound

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2021-06-22

Due to the drop of long term yield

Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>

2021-06-22

US retail sales are trending higher, but might not be sustainable

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2021-06-22

Monopoly business, biggest market share

ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Apple go go go

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2021-06-18

Memes stock > growth stock now

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2021-06-18

Nice!

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2021-06-15

GG

Cruise line stocks fell as Two Guests Test Positive for COVID-19<blockquote>两名客人COVID-19检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股价下跌</blockquote>

2021-06-15

GG

Cruise line stocks fell as Two Guests Test Positive for COVID-19<blockquote>两名客人COVID-19检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股价下跌</blockquote>

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will it crash? 😂","listText":"When will it crash? 😂","text":"When will it crash? 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894060434","repostId":"2158709252","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892637206,"gmtCreate":1628653805605,"gmtModify":1631889068698,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it be forever up? 🤔","listText":"Will it be forever up? 🤔","text":"Will it be forever up? 🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892637206","repostId":"1185123318","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899715409,"gmtCreate":1628215094201,"gmtModify":1631889068713,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Careful now guys, market volatility increasedover time","listText":"Careful now guys, market volatility increasedover time","text":"Careful now guys, market volatility increasedover 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article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801157597","repostId":"2154918711","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152520619,"gmtCreate":1625315196231,"gmtModify":1631889068741,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba is super undervalued now. Growth + value invest in a single&nbsp;stock.&nbsp;","listText":"Alibaba is super undervalued now. Growth + value invest in a single&nbsp;stock.&nbsp;","text":"Alibaba is super undervalued now. Growth + value invest in a single stock.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152520619","repostId":"1146176335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146176335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277627,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146176335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146176335","media":"The Street","summary":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?Alibaba  -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.Howeve","content":"<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创历史新高的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创历史新高的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146176335","content_text":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?\n\nAlibaba (BABA) -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.\nRegulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.\nInvestors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.\nHowever, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.\nAll of this comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.\nIt also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet (GOOGL) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix (NFLX) -Get Report is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.\nAlibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.\nCan it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?\n\nCall me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.\nThe overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better - it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”\nShares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.\nSpecifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.\nLet’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.\nHowever, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.\nA push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.\nKeep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125738266,"gmtCreate":1624692130955,"gmtModify":1631889068748,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"highest market cap company 👍🏼&nbsp;","listText":"highest market cap company 👍🏼&nbsp;","text":"highest market cap company 👍🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125738266","repostId":"1108941456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122065953,"gmtCreate":1624588790172,"gmtModify":1631889068759,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Growth &gt; dividends 🙊","listText":"Growth &gt; dividends 🙊","text":"Growth > dividends 🙊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122065953","repostId":"2145472760","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126702004,"gmtCreate":1624583592008,"gmtModify":1631889068770,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ATH","listText":"ATH","text":"ATH","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126702004","repostId":"2146023477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126353541,"gmtCreate":1624545381283,"gmtModify":1631889068784,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126353541","repostId":"1143833110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143833110","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624542572,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143833110?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 21:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Luminar rose 12% in morning trading<blockquote>Luminar早盘上涨12%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143833110","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 24) Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.\n\nLuminar Technologies CFO Tom Fennimore says the comp","content":"<p>(June 24)&nbsp;Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月24日）Luminar早盘上涨12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35c21d86e92f27ee5143c2e0fc56192\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Luminar Technologies&nbsp;CFO&nbsp;Tom Fennimore says the company targets becoming profitable in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar Technologies首席财务官Tom Fennimore表示，该公司的目标是在2024年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> In an interview with<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, Fennimore reiterates some of the company's full-year goals, weeks after sample versions of its lidar sensors went into production at a contract manufacturing facility in Mexico.</p><p><blockquote>在接受采访时<i>华尔街日报</i>在其激光雷达传感器的样品版本在墨西哥的一家合同制造工厂投入生产几周后，Fennimore重申了该公司的一些全年目标。</blockquote></p><p> Fennimore says the company aims to end the year with more cash than at the beginning. The company had $485.7M in liquidity as of December 31, 2020. As of March 31, liquidity stood at $610.3M.</p><p><blockquote>芬尼莫尔表示，该公司的目标是在年底拥有比年初更多的现金。截至2020年12月31日，该公司拥有4.857亿美元的流动性。截至3月31日，流动性为6.103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The CFO says the extra cash will cushion the company against any potential \"bump on the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官表示，额外的现金将缓冲公司免受任何潜在的“道路上的颠簸”。</blockquote></p><p> Luminar's existing automaker relationships include Volvo, Daimler, and SAIC.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar现有的汽车制造商关系包括沃尔沃、戴姆勒和上汽集团。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Luminar rose 12% in morning trading<blockquote>Luminar早盘上涨12%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLuminar rose 12% in morning trading<blockquote>Luminar早盘上涨12%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-24 21:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 24)&nbsp;Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月24日）Luminar早盘上涨12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35c21d86e92f27ee5143c2e0fc56192\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Luminar Technologies&nbsp;CFO&nbsp;Tom Fennimore says the company targets becoming profitable in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar Technologies首席财务官Tom Fennimore表示，该公司的目标是在2024年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> In an interview with<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, Fennimore reiterates some of the company's full-year goals, weeks after sample versions of its lidar sensors went into production at a contract manufacturing facility in Mexico.</p><p><blockquote>在接受采访时<i>华尔街日报</i>在其激光雷达传感器的样品版本在墨西哥的一家合同制造工厂投入生产几周后，Fennimore重申了该公司的一些全年目标。</blockquote></p><p> Fennimore says the company aims to end the year with more cash than at the beginning. The company had $485.7M in liquidity as of December 31, 2020. As of March 31, liquidity stood at $610.3M.</p><p><blockquote>芬尼莫尔表示，该公司的目标是在年底拥有比年初更多的现金。截至2020年12月31日，该公司拥有4.857亿美元的流动性。截至3月31日，流动性为6.103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The CFO says the extra cash will cushion the company against any potential \"bump on the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官表示，额外的现金将缓冲公司免受任何潜在的“道路上的颠簸”。</blockquote></p><p> Luminar's existing automaker relationships include Volvo, Daimler, and SAIC.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar现有的汽车制造商关系包括沃尔沃、戴姆勒和上汽集团。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143833110","content_text":"(June 24) Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.\n\nLuminar Technologies CFO Tom Fennimore says the company targets becoming profitable in 2024.\nIn an interview withThe Wall Street Journal, Fennimore reiterates some of the company's full-year goals, weeks after sample versions of its lidar sensors went into production at a contract manufacturing facility in Mexico.\nFennimore says the company aims to end the year with more cash than at the beginning. The company had $485.7M in liquidity as of December 31, 2020. As of March 31, liquidity stood at $610.3M.\nThe CFO says the extra cash will cushion the company against any potential \"bump on the road.\"\nLuminar's existing automaker relationships include Volvo, Daimler, and SAIC.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LAZR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126359942,"gmtCreate":1624545340586,"gmtModify":1631889068800,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126359942","repostId":"1120000038","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120207907,"gmtCreate":1624323639309,"gmtModify":1631891669006,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong rebound&nbsp;","listText":"Strong rebound&nbsp;","text":"Strong rebound","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120207907","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120205321,"gmtCreate":1624323569863,"gmtModify":1631891669018,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong rebound&nbsp;","listText":"Strong rebound&nbsp;","text":"Strong rebound","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120205321","repostId":"1167650307","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120202951,"gmtCreate":1624323539873,"gmtModify":1631891669033,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Due to the drop of long term yield&nbsp;","listText":"Due to the drop of long term yield&nbsp;","text":"Due to the drop of long term yield","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120202951","repostId":"1119296361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624028454,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119296361?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296361","media":"Barrons","summary":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier","content":"<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 23:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利","C":"花旗","WFC":"富国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","BAC":"美国银行","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296361","content_text":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.\nAfter Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%\nThe market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.\nWhy the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.\nUntil that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":0.9,"C":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"MS":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120208451,"gmtCreate":1624323503573,"gmtModify":1631891669044,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"US retail sales are trending higher, but might&nbsp;not be sustainable&nbsp;","listText":"US retail sales are trending higher, but might&nbsp;not be sustainable&nbsp;","text":"US retail sales are trending higher, but might not be sustainable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120208451","repostId":"1117650695","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120677774,"gmtCreate":1624323366898,"gmtModify":1631891669134,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Monopoly business, biggest market share","listText":"Monopoly business, biggest market share","text":"Monopoly business, biggest market share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120677774","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167596739,"gmtCreate":1624275451921,"gmtModify":1631891669136,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple go go go","listText":"Apple go go go","text":"Apple go go go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167596739","repostId":"1128822693","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168956988,"gmtCreate":1623947692444,"gmtModify":1631891669164,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Memes stock &gt; growth stock now&nbsp;","listText":"Memes stock &gt; growth stock now&nbsp;","text":"Memes stock > growth stock now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168956988","repostId":"2144056746","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168950149,"gmtCreate":1623947562781,"gmtModify":1631891669173,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168950149","repostId":"2144742672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187474791,"gmtCreate":1623763607713,"gmtModify":1631891669197,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GG","listText":"GG","text":"GG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187474791","repostId":"1102090194","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102090194","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623419256,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102090194?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 21:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cruise line stocks fell as Two Guests Test Positive for COVID-19<blockquote>两名客人COVID-19检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股价下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102090194","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 11) Cruise line stocks fell as two guests on Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship teste","content":"<p>(June 11)&nbsp;Cruise line stocks fell&nbsp;as two guests on Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>（6月11日）皇家加勒比名人千禧号上的两名客人新冠肺炎检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股票下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Airline&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>航空股早盘上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f60ad4e95f4cf84c7310ed909e0fa7c5\" tg-width=\"301\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   The duo were on a trip that began in St. Maarten aboard Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship. They are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said.  Royal Caribbean Group&nbsp;(<b>RCL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares fell Friday after the company said two guests on its Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>两人乘坐皇家加勒比的名人千禧号从圣马丁开始旅行。RCL说，他们没有症状，处于隔离状态。皇家加勒比集团（<b>RCL</b>)-Get Report股价周五下跌，此前该公司表示其名人千禧号船上的两名客人的COVID-19检测呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> The two cruisers are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said. They were sharing a room and tested positive toward the end of the cruise, which began in St. Maarten.</p><p><blockquote>RCL说，这两艘巡洋舰没有症状，正在隔离中。他们共用一个房间，在从圣马丁开始的航行快结束时检测呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> The trip was one of RCL’s first to resume in the region after the pandemic forced a shutdown in March 2020. RCL said it’s going through contact tracing, conducting testing on all of the duo’s close contacts and is closely monitoring what’s happening on the ship.</p><p><blockquote>此次旅行是2020年3月疫情迫使关闭后，RCL在该地区首批恢复的旅行之一。RCL表示，正在进行接触者追踪，对两人的所有密切接触者进行测试，并密切监测船上发生的情况。</blockquote></p><p> RCL recently traded at $88.78, down 2.04%, in pre-market trading on Friday. It has climbed 12% in the past six months amid enthusiasm for reopenings in the cruise industry and the economy as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>周五盘前交易中，RCL最新交易价格为88.78美元，下跌2.04%。由于邮轮业和整体经济对重新开放的热情，该指数在过去六个月中上涨了12%。</blockquote></p><p> In May and early June,the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gavetwo RCL ships the nod to do a test sailing in U.S. waters.</p><p><blockquote>5月和6月初，美国疾病控制与预防中心批准两艘RCL船舶在美国水域进行试航。</blockquote></p><p> Allure of the Seas is set to start test cruises from Port Canaveral July 27 to July 29, and Symphony of the Seas will do the same from PortMiami Aug. 1 through Aug. 3.</p><p><blockquote>海洋诱惑号将于7月27日至7月29日从卡纳维拉尔港开始试航，海洋交响乐号将于8月1日至8月3日从迈阿密港开始试航。</blockquote></p><p> In March,RCL announced it would resume Caribbeansailings in June.</p><p><blockquote>3月，RCL宣布将于6月恢复加勒比海航线。</blockquote></p><p> Also in March, RCL, Carnival Corp.(<b>CCL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Norwegian Cruise Line&nbsp;(<b>NCLH</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;all&nbsp;received price-target increasesfrom J.P. Morgan, based on the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>同样在3月，RCL、嘉年华公司（<b>CCL</b>)-获取报告和挪威邮轮公司(<b>NCLH</b>)-Get报告基于经济复苏的前景，摩根大通均上调了目标价。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan analyst Brandt Montour lifted his target price on RCL to $110 from $100,</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师Brandt Montour将RCL的目标价从100美元上调至110美元，</blockquote></p><p> “We … raise our price targets on slightly higher target multiples driven by positively evolving expectations for potential pricing power,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“由于对潜在定价能力的预期积极变化，我们……将价格目标提高到略高的目标倍数。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cruise line stocks fell as Two Guests Test Positive for COVID-19<blockquote>两名客人COVID-19检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股价下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCruise line stocks fell as Two Guests Test Positive for COVID-19<blockquote>两名客人COVID-19检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股价下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 21:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 11)&nbsp;Cruise line stocks fell&nbsp;as two guests on Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>（6月11日）皇家加勒比名人千禧号上的两名客人新冠肺炎检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股票下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Airline&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>航空股早盘上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f60ad4e95f4cf84c7310ed909e0fa7c5\" tg-width=\"301\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   The duo were on a trip that began in St. Maarten aboard Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship. They are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said.  Royal Caribbean Group&nbsp;(<b>RCL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares fell Friday after the company said two guests on its Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>两人乘坐皇家加勒比的名人千禧号从圣马丁开始旅行。RCL说，他们没有症状，处于隔离状态。皇家加勒比集团（<b>RCL</b>)-Get Report股价周五下跌，此前该公司表示其名人千禧号船上的两名客人的COVID-19检测呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> The two cruisers are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said. They were sharing a room and tested positive toward the end of the cruise, which began in St. Maarten.</p><p><blockquote>RCL说，这两艘巡洋舰没有症状，正在隔离中。他们共用一个房间，在从圣马丁开始的航行快结束时检测呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> The trip was one of RCL’s first to resume in the region after the pandemic forced a shutdown in March 2020. RCL said it’s going through contact tracing, conducting testing on all of the duo’s close contacts and is closely monitoring what’s happening on the ship.</p><p><blockquote>此次旅行是2020年3月疫情迫使关闭后，RCL在该地区首批恢复的旅行之一。RCL表示，正在进行接触者追踪，对两人的所有密切接触者进行测试，并密切监测船上发生的情况。</blockquote></p><p> RCL recently traded at $88.78, down 2.04%, in pre-market trading on Friday. It has climbed 12% in the past six months amid enthusiasm for reopenings in the cruise industry and the economy as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>周五盘前交易中，RCL最新交易价格为88.78美元，下跌2.04%。由于邮轮业和整体经济对重新开放的热情，该指数在过去六个月中上涨了12%。</blockquote></p><p> In May and early June,the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gavetwo RCL ships the nod to do a test sailing in U.S. waters.</p><p><blockquote>5月和6月初，美国疾病控制与预防中心批准两艘RCL船舶在美国水域进行试航。</blockquote></p><p> Allure of the Seas is set to start test cruises from Port Canaveral July 27 to July 29, and Symphony of the Seas will do the same from PortMiami Aug. 1 through Aug. 3.</p><p><blockquote>海洋诱惑号将于7月27日至7月29日从卡纳维拉尔港开始试航，海洋交响乐号将于8月1日至8月3日从迈阿密港开始试航。</blockquote></p><p> In March,RCL announced it would resume Caribbeansailings in June.</p><p><blockquote>3月，RCL宣布将于6月恢复加勒比海航线。</blockquote></p><p> Also in March, RCL, Carnival Corp.(<b>CCL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Norwegian Cruise Line&nbsp;(<b>NCLH</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;all&nbsp;received price-target increasesfrom J.P. Morgan, based on the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>同样在3月，RCL、嘉年华公司（<b>CCL</b>)-获取报告和挪威邮轮公司(<b>NCLH</b>)-Get报告基于经济复苏的前景，摩根大通均上调了目标价。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan analyst Brandt Montour lifted his target price on RCL to $110 from $100,</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师Brandt Montour将RCL的目标价从100美元上调至110美元，</blockquote></p><p> “We … raise our price targets on slightly higher target multiples driven by positively evolving expectations for potential pricing power,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“由于对潜在定价能力的预期积极变化，我们……将价格目标提高到略高的目标倍数。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RCL":"皇家加勒比邮轮","NCLH":"挪威邮轮","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102090194","content_text":"(June 11) Cruise line stocks fell as two guests on Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.\nAirline stocks rose in morning trading.\n\n\n The duo were on a trip that began in St. Maarten aboard Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship. They are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said.\n\nRoyal Caribbean Group (RCL) -Get Report shares fell Friday after the company said two guests on its Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.\nThe two cruisers are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said. They were sharing a room and tested positive toward the end of the cruise, which began in St. Maarten.\nThe trip was one of RCL’s first to resume in the region after the pandemic forced a shutdown in March 2020. RCL said it’s going through contact tracing, conducting testing on all of the duo’s close contacts and is closely monitoring what’s happening on the ship.\nRCL recently traded at $88.78, down 2.04%, in pre-market trading on Friday. It has climbed 12% in the past six months amid enthusiasm for reopenings in the cruise industry and the economy as a whole.\nIn May and early June,the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gavetwo RCL ships the nod to do a test sailing in U.S. waters.\nAllure of the Seas is set to start test cruises from Port Canaveral July 27 to July 29, and Symphony of the Seas will do the same from PortMiami Aug. 1 through Aug. 3.\nIn March,RCL announced it would resume Caribbeansailings in June.\nAlso in March, RCL, Carnival Corp.(CCL) -Get Report and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) -Get Report all received price-target increasesfrom J.P. Morgan, based on the prospect of economic recovery.\nJ.P. Morgan analyst Brandt Montour lifted his target price on RCL to $110 from $100,\n“We … raise our price targets on slightly higher target multiples driven by positively evolving expectations for potential pricing power,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CCL":0.9,"RCL":0.9,"NCLH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187474632,"gmtCreate":1623763593226,"gmtModify":1634028746792,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572226978632480","authorIdStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GG","listText":"GG","text":"GG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187474632","repostId":"1102090194","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102090194","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623419256,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102090194?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 21:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cruise line stocks fell as Two Guests Test Positive for COVID-19<blockquote>两名客人COVID-19检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股价下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102090194","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 11) Cruise line stocks fell as two guests on Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship teste","content":"<p>(June 11)&nbsp;Cruise line stocks fell&nbsp;as two guests on Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>（6月11日）皇家加勒比名人千禧号上的两名客人新冠肺炎检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股票下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Airline&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>航空股早盘上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f60ad4e95f4cf84c7310ed909e0fa7c5\" tg-width=\"301\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   The duo were on a trip that began in St. Maarten aboard Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship. They are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said.  Royal Caribbean Group&nbsp;(<b>RCL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares fell Friday after the company said two guests on its Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>两人乘坐皇家加勒比的名人千禧号从圣马丁开始旅行。RCL说，他们没有症状，处于隔离状态。皇家加勒比集团（<b>RCL</b>)-Get Report股价周五下跌，此前该公司表示其名人千禧号船上的两名客人的COVID-19检测呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> The two cruisers are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said. They were sharing a room and tested positive toward the end of the cruise, which began in St. Maarten.</p><p><blockquote>RCL说，这两艘巡洋舰没有症状，正在隔离中。他们共用一个房间，在从圣马丁开始的航行快结束时检测呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> The trip was one of RCL’s first to resume in the region after the pandemic forced a shutdown in March 2020. RCL said it’s going through contact tracing, conducting testing on all of the duo’s close contacts and is closely monitoring what’s happening on the ship.</p><p><blockquote>此次旅行是2020年3月疫情迫使关闭后，RCL在该地区首批恢复的旅行之一。RCL表示，正在进行接触者追踪，对两人的所有密切接触者进行测试，并密切监测船上发生的情况。</blockquote></p><p> RCL recently traded at $88.78, down 2.04%, in pre-market trading on Friday. It has climbed 12% in the past six months amid enthusiasm for reopenings in the cruise industry and the economy as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>周五盘前交易中，RCL最新交易价格为88.78美元，下跌2.04%。由于邮轮业和整体经济对重新开放的热情，该指数在过去六个月中上涨了12%。</blockquote></p><p> In May and early June,the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gavetwo RCL ships the nod to do a test sailing in U.S. waters.</p><p><blockquote>5月和6月初，美国疾病控制与预防中心批准两艘RCL船舶在美国水域进行试航。</blockquote></p><p> Allure of the Seas is set to start test cruises from Port Canaveral July 27 to July 29, and Symphony of the Seas will do the same from PortMiami Aug. 1 through Aug. 3.</p><p><blockquote>海洋诱惑号将于7月27日至7月29日从卡纳维拉尔港开始试航，海洋交响乐号将于8月1日至8月3日从迈阿密港开始试航。</blockquote></p><p> In March,RCL announced it would resume Caribbeansailings in June.</p><p><blockquote>3月，RCL宣布将于6月恢复加勒比海航线。</blockquote></p><p> Also in March, RCL, Carnival Corp.(<b>CCL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Norwegian Cruise Line&nbsp;(<b>NCLH</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;all&nbsp;received price-target increasesfrom J.P. Morgan, based on the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>同样在3月，RCL、嘉年华公司（<b>CCL</b>)-获取报告和挪威邮轮公司(<b>NCLH</b>)-Get报告基于经济复苏的前景，摩根大通均上调了目标价。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan analyst Brandt Montour lifted his target price on RCL to $110 from $100,</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师Brandt Montour将RCL的目标价从100美元上调至110美元，</blockquote></p><p> “We … raise our price targets on slightly higher target multiples driven by positively evolving expectations for potential pricing power,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“由于对潜在定价能力的预期积极变化，我们……将价格目标提高到略高的目标倍数。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cruise line stocks fell as Two Guests Test Positive for COVID-19<blockquote>两名客人COVID-19检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股价下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCruise line stocks fell as Two Guests Test Positive for COVID-19<blockquote>两名客人COVID-19检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股价下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 21:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 11)&nbsp;Cruise line stocks fell&nbsp;as two guests on Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>（6月11日）皇家加勒比名人千禧号上的两名客人新冠肺炎检测呈阳性，邮轮公司股票下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Airline&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>航空股早盘上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f60ad4e95f4cf84c7310ed909e0fa7c5\" tg-width=\"301\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   The duo were on a trip that began in St. Maarten aboard Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship. They are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said.  Royal Caribbean Group&nbsp;(<b>RCL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares fell Friday after the company said two guests on its Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>两人乘坐皇家加勒比的名人千禧号从圣马丁开始旅行。RCL说，他们没有症状，处于隔离状态。皇家加勒比集团（<b>RCL</b>)-Get Report股价周五下跌，此前该公司表示其名人千禧号船上的两名客人的COVID-19检测呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> The two cruisers are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said. They were sharing a room and tested positive toward the end of the cruise, which began in St. Maarten.</p><p><blockquote>RCL说，这两艘巡洋舰没有症状，正在隔离中。他们共用一个房间，在从圣马丁开始的航行快结束时检测呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> The trip was one of RCL’s first to resume in the region after the pandemic forced a shutdown in March 2020. RCL said it’s going through contact tracing, conducting testing on all of the duo’s close contacts and is closely monitoring what’s happening on the ship.</p><p><blockquote>此次旅行是2020年3月疫情迫使关闭后，RCL在该地区首批恢复的旅行之一。RCL表示，正在进行接触者追踪，对两人的所有密切接触者进行测试，并密切监测船上发生的情况。</blockquote></p><p> RCL recently traded at $88.78, down 2.04%, in pre-market trading on Friday. It has climbed 12% in the past six months amid enthusiasm for reopenings in the cruise industry and the economy as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>周五盘前交易中，RCL最新交易价格为88.78美元，下跌2.04%。由于邮轮业和整体经济对重新开放的热情，该指数在过去六个月中上涨了12%。</blockquote></p><p> In May and early June,the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gavetwo RCL ships the nod to do a test sailing in U.S. waters.</p><p><blockquote>5月和6月初，美国疾病控制与预防中心批准两艘RCL船舶在美国水域进行试航。</blockquote></p><p> Allure of the Seas is set to start test cruises from Port Canaveral July 27 to July 29, and Symphony of the Seas will do the same from PortMiami Aug. 1 through Aug. 3.</p><p><blockquote>海洋诱惑号将于7月27日至7月29日从卡纳维拉尔港开始试航，海洋交响乐号将于8月1日至8月3日从迈阿密港开始试航。</blockquote></p><p> In March,RCL announced it would resume Caribbeansailings in June.</p><p><blockquote>3月，RCL宣布将于6月恢复加勒比海航线。</blockquote></p><p> Also in March, RCL, Carnival Corp.(<b>CCL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and Norwegian Cruise Line&nbsp;(<b>NCLH</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;all&nbsp;received price-target increasesfrom J.P. Morgan, based on the prospect of economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>同样在3月，RCL、嘉年华公司（<b>CCL</b>)-获取报告和挪威邮轮公司(<b>NCLH</b>)-Get报告基于经济复苏的前景，摩根大通均上调了目标价。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan analyst Brandt Montour lifted his target price on RCL to $110 from $100,</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师Brandt Montour将RCL的目标价从100美元上调至110美元，</blockquote></p><p> “We … raise our price targets on slightly higher target multiples driven by positively evolving expectations for potential pricing power,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“由于对潜在定价能力的预期积极变化，我们……将价格目标提高到略高的目标倍数。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RCL":"皇家加勒比邮轮","NCLH":"挪威邮轮","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102090194","content_text":"(June 11) Cruise line stocks fell as two guests on Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.\nAirline stocks rose in morning trading.\n\n\n The duo were on a trip that began in St. Maarten aboard Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium ship. They are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said.\n\nRoyal Caribbean Group (RCL) -Get Report shares fell Friday after the company said two guests on its Celebrity Millennium ship tested positive for COVID-19.\nThe two cruisers are asymptomatic and in isolation, RCL said. They were sharing a room and tested positive toward the end of the cruise, which began in St. Maarten.\nThe trip was one of RCL’s first to resume in the region after the pandemic forced a shutdown in March 2020. RCL said it’s going through contact tracing, conducting testing on all of the duo’s close contacts and is closely monitoring what’s happening on the ship.\nRCL recently traded at $88.78, down 2.04%, in pre-market trading on Friday. It has climbed 12% in the past six months amid enthusiasm for reopenings in the cruise industry and the economy as a whole.\nIn May and early June,the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gavetwo RCL ships the nod to do a test sailing in U.S. waters.\nAllure of the Seas is set to start test cruises from Port Canaveral July 27 to July 29, and Symphony of the Seas will do the same from PortMiami Aug. 1 through Aug. 3.\nIn March,RCL announced it would resume Caribbeansailings in June.\nAlso in March, RCL, Carnival Corp.(CCL) -Get Report and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) -Get Report all received price-target increasesfrom J.P. Morgan, based on the prospect of economic recovery.\nJ.P. Morgan analyst Brandt Montour lifted his target price on RCL to $110 from $100,\n“We … raise our price targets on slightly higher target multiples driven by positively evolving expectations for potential pricing power,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CCL":0.9,"RCL":0.9,"NCLH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":899715409,"gmtCreate":1628215094201,"gmtModify":1631889068713,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Careful now guys, market volatility increasedover time","listText":"Careful now guys, market volatility increasedover time","text":"Careful now guys, market volatility increasedover time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899715409","repostId":"2157451943","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152520619,"gmtCreate":1625315196231,"gmtModify":1631889068741,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba is super undervalued now. Growth + value invest in a single&nbsp;stock.&nbsp;","listText":"Alibaba is super undervalued now. Growth + value invest in a single&nbsp;stock.&nbsp;","text":"Alibaba is super undervalued now. Growth + value invest in a single stock.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152520619","repostId":"1146176335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146176335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277627,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146176335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146176335","media":"The Street","summary":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?Alibaba  -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.Howeve","content":"<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创历史新高的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Turn Around Its Woes in the Second Half of 2021?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW能否在2021年下半年扭转颓势？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?  Alibaba&nbsp;(<b>BABA</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.</p><p><blockquote>与大型股和超大型股同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW一直严重落后。这种情况会在2021年下半年改变吗？阿里巴巴-SW(<b>巴巴</b>）-今年到目前为止，Get报告一直是一只狗。该股在2020年第四季度一直交易良好，但随后一系列问题重创了该股。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构扰乱了蚂蚁金服的首次公开募股，然后深入调查了阿里巴巴-SW并加大了力度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不喜欢监管问题，尤其是当我们与中国监管机构打交道时。</blockquote></p><p> However, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.</p><p><blockquote>然而，四月份，阿里巴巴-SW支付了低于预期但仍创历史新高的罚款，希望将监管问题抛在脑后。尽管如此，该股的反应并没有像多头希望的那样。</blockquote></p><p> All of this comes as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都发生在标普500和纳斯达克继续超越历史新高之际。</blockquote></p><p> It also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet&nbsp;(<b>GOOGL</b>) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，FAANG股票的交易继续非常好。Alphabet(<b>GOOGL</b>)-Get Reportis是表现最好的公司，上半年涨幅接近40%，而Netflix(<b>NFLX</b>）-Get报告最差，下降了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW上半年表现类似，下跌2.6%。然而，它的表现比高点差得多，下跌了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Can it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?</p><p><blockquote>它能否在下半年扭转困境并开始反弹？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9975f383919ff8cfc34fca49a32d8e8f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"494\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Call me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权我是一个无可救药的乐观主义者，但我觉得阿里巴巴-SW下半场可以有稳定的表现。</blockquote></p><p> The overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better&nbsp;- it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”</p><p><blockquote>整体市场表现太好了，大型科技股也是如此。业务基本面完好，增长强劲。就像亚马逊（<b>AMZN</b>)-获取报告。最终，它会表现得更好——这是一个“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Shares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.</p><p><blockquote>股价继续守住210美元至212美元区域，最近已清除下行阻力（蓝线）。也就是说，还有很多障碍。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，阿里巴巴-SW股票在21周移动平均线以及21个月和10个月移动平均线上苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.</p><p><blockquote>让我们明确一点：这里没有很多看涨的技术成分。如果阿里巴巴-SW股票能够在本周下跌时守住10周移动平均线，我会感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> However, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，只要它能够保持在210美元水平和200周移动平均线以上，我对阿里巴巴-SW进入未来六个月感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> A push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.</p><p><blockquote>突破235美元——从而突破上述所有移动平均线障碍——可能会上涨至250美元，然后是263美元。275美元以上和300美元正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> Keep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>请记住风险，但这可能是一场稳固的下半场反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/alibaba-baba-stock-second-half-2021-trading?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146176335","content_text":"Alibaba has been a sore laggard compared with its large- and mega-cap peers. Can that change in the second half of 2021?\n\nAlibaba (BABA) -Get Report has been a total dog so far this year. Shares were trading well into the fourth quarter of 2020 but then a string of issues pummeled the stock.\nRegulators disrupted Ant's initial public offering, then dug deeper on Alibaba and dialed up the heat.\nInvestors don’t like regulatory issues as it is but particularly when we’re dealing with Chinese regulators.\nHowever, in April, Alibaba paid a smaller-than-expectedbut still record fine, hoping to puts its regulatory issues behind it. Still, the stock hasn’t responded the way bulls were hoping.\nAll of this comes as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to grind outnew all-time highs.\nIt also comes as FAANG stocks continue to trade incredibly well. Alphabet (GOOGL) -Get Reportis the top performerwith a near-40% gain in the first half of the year, while Netflix (NFLX) -Get Report is the worst, with a 2.3% drop.\nAlibaba has a similar first-half performance, down 2.6%. However, it’s doing far worse from the highs, down more than 30%.\nCan it turn around its woes in the second half and start rallying higher?\n\nCall me a hopeless optimist, but I feel that Alibaba can have a solid second-half performance.\nThe overall market has done too well and so has large-cap tech. The fundamentals of the business are intact and growth is strong. It’s like Amazon (AMZN) -Get Report.Eventually, it will perform better - it’s a question of “when” and not “if.”\nShares continue to hold the $210 to $212 area and have recently cleared downtrend resistance (blue line). That said, there’s plenty of overhead hurdles.\nSpecifically, Alibaba stock is struggling with the 21-week moving average, as well as the 21-month and 10-month moving averages.\nLet’s be clear: There are not a lot of bullish technical components here. If Alibaba stock could hold the 10-week moving average on this week’s dip, I’d feel better about it.\nHowever, as long as it can hold up over the $210 level and really, the 200-week moving average, I feel okay about Alibaba going into the next six months.\nA push over $235 - thus putting it over all of the moving average hurdles mentioned above - could open up a run to $250, then $263. Above $275 and $300 is in play.\nKeep the risk in mind but this could be a solid second-half rebound play.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894060434,"gmtCreate":1628778120428,"gmtModify":1631889068683,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When will it crash? 😂","listText":"When will it crash? 😂","text":"When will it crash? 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894060434","repostId":"2158709252","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125738266,"gmtCreate":1624692130955,"gmtModify":1631889068748,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"highest market cap company 👍🏼&nbsp;","listText":"highest market cap company 👍🏼&nbsp;","text":"highest market cap company 👍🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125738266","repostId":"1108941456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126353541,"gmtCreate":1624545381283,"gmtModify":1631889068784,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126353541","repostId":"1143833110","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143833110","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624542572,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143833110?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 21:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Luminar rose 12% in morning trading<blockquote>Luminar早盘上涨12%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143833110","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 24) Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.\n\nLuminar Technologies CFO Tom Fennimore says the comp","content":"<p>(June 24)&nbsp;Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月24日）Luminar早盘上涨12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35c21d86e92f27ee5143c2e0fc56192\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Luminar Technologies&nbsp;CFO&nbsp;Tom Fennimore says the company targets becoming profitable in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar Technologies首席财务官Tom Fennimore表示，该公司的目标是在2024年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> In an interview with<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, Fennimore reiterates some of the company's full-year goals, weeks after sample versions of its lidar sensors went into production at a contract manufacturing facility in Mexico.</p><p><blockquote>在接受采访时<i>华尔街日报</i>在其激光雷达传感器的样品版本在墨西哥的一家合同制造工厂投入生产几周后，Fennimore重申了该公司的一些全年目标。</blockquote></p><p> Fennimore says the company aims to end the year with more cash than at the beginning. The company had $485.7M in liquidity as of December 31, 2020. As of March 31, liquidity stood at $610.3M.</p><p><blockquote>芬尼莫尔表示，该公司的目标是在年底拥有比年初更多的现金。截至2020年12月31日，该公司拥有4.857亿美元的流动性。截至3月31日，流动性为6.103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The CFO says the extra cash will cushion the company against any potential \"bump on the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官表示，额外的现金将缓冲公司免受任何潜在的“道路上的颠簸”。</blockquote></p><p> Luminar's existing automaker relationships include Volvo, Daimler, and SAIC.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar现有的汽车制造商关系包括沃尔沃、戴姆勒和上汽集团。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Luminar rose 12% in morning trading<blockquote>Luminar早盘上涨12%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLuminar rose 12% in morning trading<blockquote>Luminar早盘上涨12%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-24 21:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 24)&nbsp;Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月24日）Luminar早盘上涨12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35c21d86e92f27ee5143c2e0fc56192\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Luminar Technologies&nbsp;CFO&nbsp;Tom Fennimore says the company targets becoming profitable in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar Technologies首席财务官Tom Fennimore表示，该公司的目标是在2024年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> In an interview with<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, Fennimore reiterates some of the company's full-year goals, weeks after sample versions of its lidar sensors went into production at a contract manufacturing facility in Mexico.</p><p><blockquote>在接受采访时<i>华尔街日报</i>在其激光雷达传感器的样品版本在墨西哥的一家合同制造工厂投入生产几周后，Fennimore重申了该公司的一些全年目标。</blockquote></p><p> Fennimore says the company aims to end the year with more cash than at the beginning. The company had $485.7M in liquidity as of December 31, 2020. As of March 31, liquidity stood at $610.3M.</p><p><blockquote>芬尼莫尔表示，该公司的目标是在年底拥有比年初更多的现金。截至2020年12月31日，该公司拥有4.857亿美元的流动性。截至3月31日，流动性为6.103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The CFO says the extra cash will cushion the company against any potential \"bump on the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官表示，额外的现金将缓冲公司免受任何潜在的“道路上的颠簸”。</blockquote></p><p> Luminar's existing automaker relationships include Volvo, Daimler, and SAIC.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar现有的汽车制造商关系包括沃尔沃、戴姆勒和上汽集团。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143833110","content_text":"(June 24) Luminar rose 12% in morning trading.\n\nLuminar Technologies CFO Tom Fennimore says the company targets becoming profitable in 2024.\nIn an interview withThe Wall Street Journal, Fennimore reiterates some of the company's full-year goals, weeks after sample versions of its lidar sensors went into production at a contract manufacturing facility in Mexico.\nFennimore says the company aims to end the year with more cash than at the beginning. The company had $485.7M in liquidity as of December 31, 2020. As of March 31, liquidity stood at $610.3M.\nThe CFO says the extra cash will cushion the company against any potential \"bump on the road.\"\nLuminar's existing automaker relationships include Volvo, Daimler, and SAIC.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LAZR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168956988,"gmtCreate":1623947692444,"gmtModify":1631891669164,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Memes stock &gt; growth stock now&nbsp;","listText":"Memes stock &gt; growth stock now&nbsp;","text":"Memes stock > growth stock now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168956988","repostId":"2144056746","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801157597,"gmtCreate":1627490256919,"gmtModify":1631889068729,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good article&nbsp;","listText":"Good article&nbsp;","text":"Good article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801157597","repostId":"2154918711","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379602385,"gmtCreate":1618722615047,"gmtModify":1634291246968,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏼👍🏼","listText":"👍🏼👍🏼","text":"👍🏼👍🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379602385","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175692875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122065953,"gmtCreate":1624588790172,"gmtModify":1631889068759,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Growth &gt; dividends 🙊","listText":"Growth &gt; dividends 🙊","text":"Growth > dividends 🙊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122065953","repostId":"2145472760","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126702004,"gmtCreate":1624583592008,"gmtModify":1631889068770,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ATH","listText":"ATH","text":"ATH","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126702004","repostId":"2146023477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120677774,"gmtCreate":1624323366898,"gmtModify":1631891669134,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Monopoly business, biggest market share","listText":"Monopoly business, biggest market share","text":"Monopoly business, biggest market share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120677774","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378820629,"gmtCreate":1619016459661,"gmtModify":1634289185228,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long term play","listText":"Long term play","text":"Long term play","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378820629","repostId":"1114709501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114709501","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619012348,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114709501?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌逾2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114709501","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in B","content":"<p>Tesla stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to&nbsp;German business daily.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周三早盘下跌超过2%。据德国商报报道，特斯拉在柏林的超级工厂的启动可能会被大幅推迟。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b525edb3c12a6ee6740baf665aa59a9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.</p><p><blockquote>此前，郑州市郑东新区市监局责令特斯拉无条件提供事故发生前半小时的完整行驶数据；此外，一季度model 3在加州的注册量同比下降54%至8060辆。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌逾2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌逾2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 21:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to&nbsp;German business daily.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周三早盘下跌超过2%。据德国商报报道，特斯拉在柏林的超级工厂的启动可能会被大幅推迟。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b525edb3c12a6ee6740baf665aa59a9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.</p><p><blockquote>此前，郑州市郑东新区市监局责令特斯拉无条件提供事故发生前半小时的完整行驶数据；此外，一季度model 3在加州的注册量同比下降54%至8060辆。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114709501","content_text":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to German business daily.Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892637206,"gmtCreate":1628653805605,"gmtModify":1631889068698,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it be forever up? 🤔","listText":"Will it be forever up? 🤔","text":"Will it be forever up? 🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892637206","repostId":"1185123318","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187522786,"gmtCreate":1623759819845,"gmtModify":1634028860799,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tapering soon?","listText":"Tapering soon?","text":"Tapering soon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187522786","repostId":"1127014300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378827159,"gmtCreate":1619016994371,"gmtModify":1634289179973,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crazy","listText":"Crazy","text":"Crazy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378827159","repostId":"1178155125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178155125","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619016662,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178155125?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 22:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will The Rebound For Small-Cap Value Stocks Endure?<blockquote>小盘价值股的反弹会持续吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178155125","media":"The Capital Spectator","summary":"Summary\n\nIt's been a year of revival so far for the previously trailing small-cap value space in the","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>It's been a year of revival so far for the previously trailing small-cap value space in the US stock market.</li>  <li>For now, small-cap value is the top-performing equity risk factor year to date, based on a set of exchange traded funds.</li>  <li>Given the broad market's strong run over the past year, with limited downside, it wouldn't be surprising to see a correction at some point in the near term.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b4309712ae4d217c37b3166c3900d2d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by syahrir maulana/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>迄今为止，对于美国股市此前落后的小盘股价值空间来说，这是复苏的一年。</li><li>目前，根据一系列交易所交易基金，小盘股价值是今年迄今为止表现最好的股票风险因素。</li><li>鉴于大盘在过去一年中表现强劲，下行空间有限，短期内出现回调也就不足为奇了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：syahrir maulana/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's been a year of revival so far for the previously trailing small-cap value space in the US stock market. Deciding if the party can last may depend on how stocks overall fare in the months ahead and whether the consensus forecast for a strong economic recovery is accurate.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，对于美国股市此前落后的小盘股价值空间来说，这是复苏的一年。决定派对能否持续可能取决于未来几个月股市的整体表现，以及对经济强劲复苏的普遍预测是否准确。</blockquote></p><p> For now, small-cap value is the top-performing equity risk factor year to date, based on a set of exchange traded funds. The iShares S&amp;P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF(NYSEARCA:IJS)is enjoying a strong 22.3% total return in 2021 through yesterday's close (Apr. 20). The edge over second- and third-place factors is shrinking, but for now, IJS holds the high ground. Meanwhile, measured against the broad market, there's no comparison: IJS's year-to-date run is more than double the 10.6% increase for SPDR S&amp;P 500&nbsp;(NYSEARCA:SPY)&nbsp;so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>目前，根据一系列交易所交易基金，小盘股价值是今年迄今为止表现最好的股票风险因素。截至昨天（4月20日）收盘，iShares S&amp;P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF(NYSEARCA：IJS)在2021年的总回报率为22.3%。相对于第二和第三名因素的优势正在缩小，但就目前而言，IJS占据了制高点。与此同时，与大盘相比，没有可比性：IJS今年迄今的表现是SPDR标普500(NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF)2021年迄今为止10.6%涨幅的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60222df06808d9fd06b81ede87acca5b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"450\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Small-cap value (SCV) is widely followed, in part because of&nbsp;influential research&nbsp;in the 1990s that first documented that this slice of equities' capacity for outperforming the broad stock market through time. But as the SCV stumbled in recent years, investors wondered if the risk premium had faded and the original research was wrong. But as the risk factor's prospects hit rock bottom, the tide began to turn, or so it seemed.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股价值(SCV)受到广泛关注，部分原因是20世纪90年代有影响力的研究首次证明了这部分股票随着时间的推移跑赢大盘的能力。但随着SCV近年来的跌跌撞撞，投资者怀疑风险溢价是否已经消退，最初的研究是否是错误的。但随着风险因素的前景跌至谷底，潮流开始转向，或者看起来是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Last June, The Wall Street Journal&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;that \"Small 'Value' Stocks Are Down but Not Out.\" The article was a timely piece, arriving just ahead of renaissance in SCV leadership. Since November, IJS has pulled far ahead of the broad market (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>去年六月，《华尔街日报》写道，“小型‘价值’股票下跌但并未出局。”这篇文章是一篇及时的文章，正好在SCV领导层复兴之前发表。自11月以来，IJS已远远领先于大盘（SPDR标普500指数ETF）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8f1a917de2ced0733769ba5ffe2adb7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In fact, there's been a strong run for most of the major US equity factors so far this year. More than half of the ETF-based equity factors in the table above are beating the broad market's performance in 2021. Note, too, that every corner of this factor zoo is posting a gain, ranging from a relatively modest 6.0% rise for momentum(BATS:MTUM)up through small-cap value's performance lead.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，今年迄今为止，大多数主要美国股票因子都表现强劲。上表中超过一半的基于ETF的股票因子在2021年的表现优于大盘。另请注意，这个因素动物园的每个角落都在上涨，从momentum(BATS：MTUM)相对温和的6.0%上涨到small-cap value的业绩领先。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the second-place high-beta version of the S&amp;P 500 is nipping at small-cap value's heels. Invesco S&amp;P 500 High Beta(NYSEARCA:SPHB)is up 21.6% so far this year, just slightly behind IJS's lead.</p><p><blockquote>然而，排名第二的高贝塔版本的标普500正在追赶小盘股价值股。景顺标普500 High Beta(NYSEARCA：SPHB)今年迄今已上涨21.6%，仅略落后于IJS的领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> The main challenge for stocks generally at the moment is the risk of a correction for a market that, generally, appears to have run too hot too fast. By some accounts, bubble risk is also brewing.</p><p><blockquote>目前股市面临的主要挑战是市场出现回调的风险，市场总体上似乎过热过快。一些人认为，泡沫风险也在酝酿之中。</blockquote></p><p> \"The asset bubble keeps on getting bigger and bigger,\"advises&nbsp;David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research, in a research note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格研究公司首席经济学家兼策略师大卫·罗森伯格在给客户的一份研究报告中建议：“资产泡沫不断变得越来越大。”</blockquote></p><p>   \"Please understand that this is the second most expensive S&amp;P 500 index of all time.\"  A basic econometric measure of bubble risk maintained by CapitalSpectator.com supports the idea that the S&amp;P 500 is looking a bit frothy these days, as shown in the chart below. (For some background on the metric's design.)</p><p><blockquote>“请理解，这是有史以来第二贵的标普500指数。”CapitalSpectator.com维护的泡沫风险基本计量经济学指标支持这样的观点：标普500目前看起来有点泡沫，如下图所示。（有关指标设计的一些背景信息。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd30898028ee247696a32a4db1d50b14\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given the broad market's strong run over the past year, with limited downside, it wouldn't be surprising to see a correction at some point in the near term. A pullback of some magnitude would likely weigh on all the equity factors. In that case, deciding if small-cap value's mojo was noise or the start of extended recovery after a long period of weakness would emerge on the other side of a correction (or bear market, if it comes that).</p><p><blockquote>鉴于大盘在过去一年中表现强劲，下行空间有限，短期内出现回调也就不足为奇了。一定程度的回调可能会对所有股票因素造成压力。在这种情况下，决定小盘股价值的魔力是噪音还是长期疲软后长期复苏的开始将出现在调整（或熊市，如果出现的话）的另一边。</blockquote></p><p> In any case, some analysts remain optimistic. AllianceBernstein, writing this week,advises&nbsp;that \"we believe several forces will continue to drive the recovery in the months, and possibly years, ahead.\" Even higher interest rates don't threaten SCV, the money management shop explains. Meanwhile, \"at current valuations, we believe small-cap value stocks are still undervalued, and the potential narrowing of the discount can drive a lot of outperformance.\"</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，一些分析师仍然保持乐观。AllianceBernstein本周写道，“我们相信几种力量将在未来几个月甚至几年内继续推动经济复苏。”该资金管理公司解释说，即使利率上升也不会威胁到SCV。与此同时，“按照目前的估值，我们认为小盘价值股仍然被低估，折价的潜在收窄可能会推动许多优异表现。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1602837619768","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will The Rebound For Small-Cap Value Stocks Endure?<blockquote>小盘价值股的反弹会持续吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill The Rebound For Small-Cap Value Stocks Endure?<blockquote>小盘价值股的反弹会持续吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Capital Spectator</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-21 22:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>It's been a year of revival so far for the previously trailing small-cap value space in the US stock market.</li>  <li>For now, small-cap value is the top-performing equity risk factor year to date, based on a set of exchange traded funds.</li>  <li>Given the broad market's strong run over the past year, with limited downside, it wouldn't be surprising to see a correction at some point in the near term.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b4309712ae4d217c37b3166c3900d2d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by syahrir maulana/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>迄今为止，对于美国股市此前落后的小盘股价值空间来说，这是复苏的一年。</li><li>目前，根据一系列交易所交易基金，小盘股价值是今年迄今为止表现最好的股票风险因素。</li><li>鉴于大盘在过去一年中表现强劲，下行空间有限，短期内出现回调也就不足为奇了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：syahrir maulana/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's been a year of revival so far for the previously trailing small-cap value space in the US stock market. Deciding if the party can last may depend on how stocks overall fare in the months ahead and whether the consensus forecast for a strong economic recovery is accurate.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，对于美国股市此前落后的小盘股价值空间来说，这是复苏的一年。决定派对能否持续可能取决于未来几个月股市的整体表现，以及对经济强劲复苏的普遍预测是否准确。</blockquote></p><p> For now, small-cap value is the top-performing equity risk factor year to date, based on a set of exchange traded funds. The iShares S&amp;P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF(NYSEARCA:IJS)is enjoying a strong 22.3% total return in 2021 through yesterday's close (Apr. 20). The edge over second- and third-place factors is shrinking, but for now, IJS holds the high ground. Meanwhile, measured against the broad market, there's no comparison: IJS's year-to-date run is more than double the 10.6% increase for SPDR S&amp;P 500&nbsp;(NYSEARCA:SPY)&nbsp;so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>目前，根据一系列交易所交易基金，小盘股价值是今年迄今为止表现最好的股票风险因素。截至昨天（4月20日）收盘，iShares S&amp;P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF(NYSEARCA：IJS)在2021年的总回报率为22.3%。相对于第二和第三名因素的优势正在缩小，但就目前而言，IJS占据了制高点。与此同时，与大盘相比，没有可比性：IJS今年迄今的表现是SPDR标普500(NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF)2021年迄今为止10.6%涨幅的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60222df06808d9fd06b81ede87acca5b\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"450\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Small-cap value (SCV) is widely followed, in part because of&nbsp;influential research&nbsp;in the 1990s that first documented that this slice of equities' capacity for outperforming the broad stock market through time. But as the SCV stumbled in recent years, investors wondered if the risk premium had faded and the original research was wrong. But as the risk factor's prospects hit rock bottom, the tide began to turn, or so it seemed.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股价值(SCV)受到广泛关注，部分原因是20世纪90年代有影响力的研究首次证明了这部分股票随着时间的推移跑赢大盘的能力。但随着SCV近年来的跌跌撞撞，投资者怀疑风险溢价是否已经消退，最初的研究是否是错误的。但随着风险因素的前景跌至谷底，潮流开始转向，或者看起来是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Last June, The Wall Street Journal&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;that \"Small 'Value' Stocks Are Down but Not Out.\" The article was a timely piece, arriving just ahead of renaissance in SCV leadership. Since November, IJS has pulled far ahead of the broad market (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>去年六月，《华尔街日报》写道，“小型‘价值’股票下跌但并未出局。”这篇文章是一篇及时的文章，正好在SCV领导层复兴之前发表。自11月以来，IJS已远远领先于大盘（SPDR标普500指数ETF）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8f1a917de2ced0733769ba5ffe2adb7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In fact, there's been a strong run for most of the major US equity factors so far this year. More than half of the ETF-based equity factors in the table above are beating the broad market's performance in 2021. Note, too, that every corner of this factor zoo is posting a gain, ranging from a relatively modest 6.0% rise for momentum(BATS:MTUM)up through small-cap value's performance lead.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，今年迄今为止，大多数主要美国股票因子都表现强劲。上表中超过一半的基于ETF的股票因子在2021年的表现优于大盘。另请注意，这个因素动物园的每个角落都在上涨，从momentum(BATS：MTUM)相对温和的6.0%上涨到small-cap value的业绩领先。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the second-place high-beta version of the S&amp;P 500 is nipping at small-cap value's heels. Invesco S&amp;P 500 High Beta(NYSEARCA:SPHB)is up 21.6% so far this year, just slightly behind IJS's lead.</p><p><blockquote>然而，排名第二的高贝塔版本的标普500正在追赶小盘股价值股。景顺标普500 High Beta(NYSEARCA：SPHB)今年迄今已上涨21.6%，仅略落后于IJS的领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> The main challenge for stocks generally at the moment is the risk of a correction for a market that, generally, appears to have run too hot too fast. By some accounts, bubble risk is also brewing.</p><p><blockquote>目前股市面临的主要挑战是市场出现回调的风险，市场总体上似乎过热过快。一些人认为，泡沫风险也在酝酿之中。</blockquote></p><p> \"The asset bubble keeps on getting bigger and bigger,\"advises&nbsp;David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research, in a research note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格研究公司首席经济学家兼策略师大卫·罗森伯格在给客户的一份研究报告中建议：“资产泡沫不断变得越来越大。”</blockquote></p><p>   \"Please understand that this is the second most expensive S&amp;P 500 index of all time.\"  A basic econometric measure of bubble risk maintained by CapitalSpectator.com supports the idea that the S&amp;P 500 is looking a bit frothy these days, as shown in the chart below. (For some background on the metric's design.)</p><p><blockquote>“请理解，这是有史以来第二贵的标普500指数。”CapitalSpectator.com维护的泡沫风险基本计量经济学指标支持这样的观点：标普500目前看起来有点泡沫，如下图所示。（有关指标设计的一些背景信息。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd30898028ee247696a32a4db1d50b14\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given the broad market's strong run over the past year, with limited downside, it wouldn't be surprising to see a correction at some point in the near term. A pullback of some magnitude would likely weigh on all the equity factors. In that case, deciding if small-cap value's mojo was noise or the start of extended recovery after a long period of weakness would emerge on the other side of a correction (or bear market, if it comes that).</p><p><blockquote>鉴于大盘在过去一年中表现强劲，下行空间有限，短期内出现回调也就不足为奇了。一定程度的回调可能会对所有股票因素造成压力。在这种情况下，决定小盘股价值的魔力是噪音还是长期疲软后长期复苏的开始将出现在调整（或熊市，如果出现的话）的另一边。</blockquote></p><p> In any case, some analysts remain optimistic. AllianceBernstein, writing this week,advises&nbsp;that \"we believe several forces will continue to drive the recovery in the months, and possibly years, ahead.\" Even higher interest rates don't threaten SCV, the money management shop explains. Meanwhile, \"at current valuations, we believe small-cap value stocks are still undervalued, and the potential narrowing of the discount can drive a lot of outperformance.\"</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，一些分析师仍然保持乐观。AllianceBernstein本周写道，“我们相信几种力量将在未来几个月甚至几年内继续推动经济复苏。”该资金管理公司解释说，即使利率上升也不会威胁到SCV。与此同时，“按照目前的估值，我们认为小盘价值股仍然被低估，折价的潜在收窄可能会推动许多优异表现。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"http://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-rebound-for-small-cap-value-stocks-endure/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheCapitalSpectator+%28The+Capital+Spectator%29\">The Capital Spectator</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-rebound-for-small-cap-value-stocks-endure/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheCapitalSpectator+%28The+Capital+Spectator%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178155125","content_text":"Summary\n\nIt's been a year of revival so far for the previously trailing small-cap value space in the US stock market.\nFor now, small-cap value is the top-performing equity risk factor year to date, based on a set of exchange traded funds.\nGiven the broad market's strong run over the past year, with limited downside, it wouldn't be surprising to see a correction at some point in the near term.\n\nPhoto by syahrir maulana/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's been a year of revival so far for the previously trailing small-cap value space in the US stock market. Deciding if the party can last may depend on how stocks overall fare in the months ahead and whether the consensus forecast for a strong economic recovery is accurate.\nFor now, small-cap value is the top-performing equity risk factor year to date, based on a set of exchange traded funds. The iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF(NYSEARCA:IJS)is enjoying a strong 22.3% total return in 2021 through yesterday's close (Apr. 20). The edge over second- and third-place factors is shrinking, but for now, IJS holds the high ground. Meanwhile, measured against the broad market, there's no comparison: IJS's year-to-date run is more than double the 10.6% increase for SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) so far in 2021.\n\nSmall-cap value (SCV) is widely followed, in part because of influential research in the 1990s that first documented that this slice of equities' capacity for outperforming the broad stock market through time. But as the SCV stumbled in recent years, investors wondered if the risk premium had faded and the original research was wrong. But as the risk factor's prospects hit rock bottom, the tide began to turn, or so it seemed.\nLast June, The Wall Street Journal wrote that \"Small 'Value' Stocks Are Down but Not Out.\" The article was a timely piece, arriving just ahead of renaissance in SCV leadership. Since November, IJS has pulled far ahead of the broad market (SPY).\n\nIn fact, there's been a strong run for most of the major US equity factors so far this year. More than half of the ETF-based equity factors in the table above are beating the broad market's performance in 2021. Note, too, that every corner of this factor zoo is posting a gain, ranging from a relatively modest 6.0% rise for momentum(BATS:MTUM)up through small-cap value's performance lead.\nYet the second-place high-beta version of the S&P 500 is nipping at small-cap value's heels. Invesco S&P 500 High Beta(NYSEARCA:SPHB)is up 21.6% so far this year, just slightly behind IJS's lead.\nThe main challenge for stocks generally at the moment is the risk of a correction for a market that, generally, appears to have run too hot too fast. By some accounts, bubble risk is also brewing.\n\"The asset bubble keeps on getting bigger and bigger,\"advises David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research, in a research note to clients.\n\n \"Please understand that this is the second most expensive S&P 500 index of all time.\"\n\nA basic econometric measure of bubble risk maintained by CapitalSpectator.com supports the idea that the S&P 500 is looking a bit frothy these days, as shown in the chart below. (For some background on the metric's design.)\n\nGiven the broad market's strong run over the past year, with limited downside, it wouldn't be surprising to see a correction at some point in the near term. A pullback of some magnitude would likely weigh on all the equity factors. In that case, deciding if small-cap value's mojo was noise or the start of extended recovery after a long period of weakness would emerge on the other side of a correction (or bear market, if it comes that).\nIn any case, some analysts remain optimistic. AllianceBernstein, writing this week,advises that \"we believe several forces will continue to drive the recovery in the months, and possibly years, ahead.\" Even higher interest rates don't threaten SCV, the money management shop explains. Meanwhile, \"at current valuations, we believe small-cap value stocks are still undervalued, and the potential narrowing of the discount can drive a lot of outperformance.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126359942,"gmtCreate":1624545340586,"gmtModify":1631889068800,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126359942","repostId":"1120000038","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120207907,"gmtCreate":1624323639309,"gmtModify":1631891669006,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong rebound&nbsp;","listText":"Strong rebound&nbsp;","text":"Strong rebound","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120207907","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120202951,"gmtCreate":1624323539873,"gmtModify":1631891669033,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Due to the drop of long term yield&nbsp;","listText":"Due to the drop of long term yield&nbsp;","text":"Due to the drop of long term yield","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120202951","repostId":"1119296361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624028454,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119296361?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296361","media":"Barrons","summary":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier","content":"<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.<blockquote>银行股是美联储日的赢家。为什么他们会被压垮。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 23:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储发布6月份货币政策声明时，银行股上涨，该声明指出加息时间早于预期。周四，他们是市场最大的输家之一。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p><p><blockquote>这是有充分理由的。银行通常通过短期借钱和长期借钱来赚钱，并从利差中获利。当长期利率上升速度快于短期利率时，银行利润率通常会提高，而当情况相反时，利润会恶化。</blockquote></p><p> After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>周三会议结束后，10年期国债收益率大幅反弹，上涨0.071%至1.569%，而两年期国债收益率上涨0.038个百分点至0.203%，两者利差达到1.366个百分点。这种扩大使得金融业，尤其是银行股成为少数几个对美联储周三的声明做出积极反应的行业之一。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE)上涨0.9%，摩根大通(JPM)上涨0.7%，尽管标准普尔500指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.2%</blockquote></p><p> The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经改变了主意。10年期国债收益率跌至1.498%，两年期国债收益率升至0.238%，差距为1.26个百分点。对于银行等利率敏感行业来说，所谓的收益率曲线变平是个坏消息。SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF周四下跌4.5%，周五盘前交易下跌1%。摩根大通周四下跌2.9%，周五下跌约1%。周五标普500期货下跌0.6%，道指期货下跌0.8%。纳斯达克综合指数期货下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>市场为何大转变？为了让收益率继续上升，经济需要表明它正在迅速复苏。否则，投资者将押注美国在2008年金融危机后经历的缓慢增长。Evercore ISI策略师丹尼斯·德布斯切尔(Dennis DeBusschere)表示，由于周四初请失业金人数大幅下降，并在六周下降后首次上升，市场决定关注后者，而不是前者。他写道：“相对于所有人之前的想法，经济前景面临的风险是急剧转向鹰派，同时劳动力市场并不像美联储假设的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况改变之前，银行股将很难反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利","C":"花旗","WFC":"富国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","BAC":"美国银行","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296361","content_text":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.\nAfter Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%\nThe market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.\nWhy the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.\nUntil that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":0.9,"C":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"MS":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167596739,"gmtCreate":1624275451921,"gmtModify":1631891669136,"author":{"id":"3572226978632480","authorId":"3572226978632480","name":"Davidyapp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a5fb2f8cc1ae1f0ba3e54660da4828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572226978632480","idStr":"3572226978632480"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple go go go","listText":"Apple go go go","text":"Apple go go go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167596739","repostId":"1128822693","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}