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2021-12-15

Agree

U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,S&P 500 gains 0.1%<blockquote>美联储决策日美股开局乏善可陈标普500涨0.1%</blockquote>

2021-12-15

Like

PayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal<blockquote>PayPal控股：逢低买入会让你付钱</blockquote>

2021-11-24

I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.

Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股价明年会上涨25%吗？</blockquote>

2021-10-29

I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.

Apple sales miss expectations, supply issues cost company $6 billion<blockquote>苹果销量未达预期，供应问题导致公司损失60亿美元</blockquote>

2021-06-20

Hmmm

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-20

Surprising to find visa on this list. Would have thought PayPal to be a better buy compared to visa personally.

抱歉，原内容已删除

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639578803,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153017502?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 22:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,S&P 500 gains 0.1%<blockquote>美联储决策日美股开局乏善可陈标普500涨0.1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153017502","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%","content":"<p>U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%,S&amp;P 500 gains 0.1%; Dow trades flat but hanging around a gain of 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>美联储决策日美国股市开局乏善可陈，纳斯达克综合指数下跌不到0.1%，标普500上涨0.1%；道琼斯指数持平，但涨幅徘徊在0.1%左右。</blockquote></p><p> All eyes on Wednesday will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement and press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Many market participants expect these will set the stage for the Fed to speed the withdrawal of its crisis-era stimulus programs, with the firming economic recovery and soaring inflation suggesting the central bank has room for a more hawkish tilt to policy. Last week's Consumer Price Index showed thefastest surge in U.S. consumer prices since 1982on a year-over-year basis in November. And on Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index jumped by the most on record at a 9.6% year-over-year increase for last month.</p><p><blockquote>周三所有人的目光都将集中在美联储的货币政策声明和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会上。许多市场人士预计，这些将为美联储加快退出危机时期的刺激计划奠定基础，经济复苏企稳和通胀飙升表明美联储有空间在政策上更加鹰派。上周的消费者价格指数显示，11月份美国消费者价格同比涨幅为1982年以来最快。周二，美国生产者价格指数上个月同比上涨9.6%，创有记录以来最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, many investors anticipate the Fed will ramp up the rate of tapering of its asset-purchasing program, which took place at a rate of $120 billion per month in combined Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities from the start of the pandemic through November. Last month, the Fed began dialing back these purchases by $15 billion, and announced another $15 billion reduction for December.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，许多投资者预计美联储将加快资产购买计划的缩减速度，从疫情开始到11月，美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的缩减速度为每月1200亿美元。上个月，美联储开始将这些购买量减少150亿美元，并宣布12月份再减少150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"We don't think that the Fed is really going to have any surprises for the markets [Wednesday]. They're probably going to announce that they're going to ... accelerate tapering, and that they'll probably finish that by March. But we think that they're going to leave themselves lots flexibility around raising interest rates,\" Tracie McMillion, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global asset allocation strategy,told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.She added she expects just one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the second half of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为美联储（周三）不会真的给市场带来任何惊喜。他们可能会宣布他们将……加速缩减规模，而且他们可能会在三月份之前完成缩减规模。但我们认为他们将在加息方面给自己留下很大的灵活性，”富国银行投资研究所全球资产配置策略主管Tracie McMillion周二对雅虎财经直播表示。她补充说，预计美联储明年下半年只会加息一次。</blockquote></p><p> Other pundits, however, expect an earlier liftoff on interest rates, which maybe be reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) updated Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其他专家预计利率将提前上升，这可能会反映在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）周三更新的经济预测摘要中。</blockquote></p><p> \"The announcement of faster tapering after today's FOMC meeting is a done deal; we'd be astonished by anything other than a plan to complete asset purchases by the end of March at the latest,\" wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note on Tuesday. He expects the Fed to stick to its prior plan of purchasing $90 billion in its asset-purchase program this month, before doubling the rate of tapering from its current $15 billion per month starting in January.</p><p><blockquote>万神殿宏观经济公司(Pantheon Macroeconomics)首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)写道：“今天的FOMC会议后宣布加快缩减规模已成定局；除了最迟在3月底之前完成资产购买的计划之外，我们会对任何事情感到惊讶。”在周二的一份说明中。他预计，美联储将坚持其先前的计划，即本月在资产购买计划中购买900亿美元，然后从1月份开始将缩减速度从目前的每月150亿美元增加一倍。</blockquote></p><p> \"That would mean purchases drop to $60 billion in January, $30 billion in February, and zero in March, leaving the door open to a rate hike that month if the inflation outlook has not improved, via a clear and sustained increase in the labor force participation rate,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“这将意味着1月份的购买量降至600亿美元，2月份降至300亿美元，3月份降至零，如果通胀前景没有改善，那么当月加息的大门就敞开了，劳动力参与率，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> A number of strategists noted the trading activity in recent sessions and weeks has reflected the market pricing of a more hawkish Fed. Software and other growth names were some of the biggest laggards in the major indexes during Tuesday's session.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师指出，最近几个交易日和几周的交易活动反映了市场对美联储更加鹰派的定价。周二交易中，软件和其他成长型股票是主要股指中表现最差的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> \"When you have an anticipation of higher interest rates, growth stocks or long-duration growth stocks certainly get hit the hardest,\" Art Hogan, national chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. \"When you do that net present value calculation with a higher interest rate, that implied multiple or ascribed multiple to growth names comes in. So a lot of that's been priced in. When you think about some of those real growth-y names and momentum names and risk assets, they've seen a lot of carnage.\"</p><p><blockquote>全国首席市场策略师阿特·霍根周二对雅虎财经直播表示：“当你预期利率上升时，成长型股票或长期成长型股票肯定会受到最严重的打击。”“当你用较高的利率进行净现值计算时，成长型公司的隐含倍数或归属倍数就会出现。所以很多都已经被定价了。当你想到一些真正的成长型公司和动量型公司时名字和风险资产，他们已经看到了很多屠杀。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What the market is trying to tell us here is that when you set your asset allocation plan for next year, you want to have a barbell approach with growth on one side — you want to have those growth names that are actually valued at a multiple to earnings, not a multiple to revenues or a multiple to cash flows or a multiple to sales,\" he added. \"We anticipate 2022 is going to be very much like 2021, where you really want to have a balance between growth and value.\"</p><p><blockquote>“市场在这里试图告诉我们的是，当你制定明年的资产配置计划时，你希望采取杠铃法，一方面是增长——你希望那些实际估值为收益倍数的增长名称，而不是收入的倍数、现金流的倍数或销售额的倍数，”他补充道。“我们预计2022年将与2021年非常相似，您确实希望在增长和价值之间取得平衡。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,S&P 500 gains 0.1%<blockquote>美联储决策日美股开局乏善可陈标普500涨0.1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,S&P 500 gains 0.1%<blockquote>美联储决策日美股开局乏善可陈标普500涨0.1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-15 22:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%,S&amp;P 500 gains 0.1%; Dow trades flat but hanging around a gain of 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>美联储决策日美国股市开局乏善可陈，纳斯达克综合指数下跌不到0.1%，标普500上涨0.1%；道琼斯指数持平，但涨幅徘徊在0.1%左右。</blockquote></p><p> All eyes on Wednesday will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement and press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Many market participants expect these will set the stage for the Fed to speed the withdrawal of its crisis-era stimulus programs, with the firming economic recovery and soaring inflation suggesting the central bank has room for a more hawkish tilt to policy. Last week's Consumer Price Index showed thefastest surge in U.S. consumer prices since 1982on a year-over-year basis in November. And on Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index jumped by the most on record at a 9.6% year-over-year increase for last month.</p><p><blockquote>周三所有人的目光都将集中在美联储的货币政策声明和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会上。许多市场人士预计，这些将为美联储加快退出危机时期的刺激计划奠定基础，经济复苏企稳和通胀飙升表明美联储有空间在政策上更加鹰派。上周的消费者价格指数显示，11月份美国消费者价格同比涨幅为1982年以来最快。周二，美国生产者价格指数上个月同比上涨9.6%，创有记录以来最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, many investors anticipate the Fed will ramp up the rate of tapering of its asset-purchasing program, which took place at a rate of $120 billion per month in combined Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities from the start of the pandemic through November. Last month, the Fed began dialing back these purchases by $15 billion, and announced another $15 billion reduction for December.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，许多投资者预计美联储将加快资产购买计划的缩减速度，从疫情开始到11月，美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的缩减速度为每月1200亿美元。上个月，美联储开始将这些购买量减少150亿美元，并宣布12月份再减少150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"We don't think that the Fed is really going to have any surprises for the markets [Wednesday]. They're probably going to announce that they're going to ... accelerate tapering, and that they'll probably finish that by March. But we think that they're going to leave themselves lots flexibility around raising interest rates,\" Tracie McMillion, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global asset allocation strategy,told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.She added she expects just one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the second half of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为美联储（周三）不会真的给市场带来任何惊喜。他们可能会宣布他们将……加速缩减规模，而且他们可能会在三月份之前完成缩减规模。但我们认为他们将在加息方面给自己留下很大的灵活性，”富国银行投资研究所全球资产配置策略主管Tracie McMillion周二对雅虎财经直播表示。她补充说，预计美联储明年下半年只会加息一次。</blockquote></p><p> Other pundits, however, expect an earlier liftoff on interest rates, which maybe be reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) updated Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其他专家预计利率将提前上升，这可能会反映在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）周三更新的经济预测摘要中。</blockquote></p><p> \"The announcement of faster tapering after today's FOMC meeting is a done deal; we'd be astonished by anything other than a plan to complete asset purchases by the end of March at the latest,\" wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note on Tuesday. He expects the Fed to stick to its prior plan of purchasing $90 billion in its asset-purchase program this month, before doubling the rate of tapering from its current $15 billion per month starting in January.</p><p><blockquote>万神殿宏观经济公司(Pantheon Macroeconomics)首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)写道：“今天的FOMC会议后宣布加快缩减规模已成定局；除了最迟在3月底之前完成资产购买的计划之外，我们会对任何事情感到惊讶。”在周二的一份说明中。他预计，美联储将坚持其先前的计划，即本月在资产购买计划中购买900亿美元，然后从1月份开始将缩减速度从目前的每月150亿美元增加一倍。</blockquote></p><p> \"That would mean purchases drop to $60 billion in January, $30 billion in February, and zero in March, leaving the door open to a rate hike that month if the inflation outlook has not improved, via a clear and sustained increase in the labor force participation rate,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“这将意味着1月份的购买量降至600亿美元，2月份降至300亿美元，3月份降至零，如果通胀前景没有改善，那么当月加息的大门就敞开了，劳动力参与率，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> A number of strategists noted the trading activity in recent sessions and weeks has reflected the market pricing of a more hawkish Fed. Software and other growth names were some of the biggest laggards in the major indexes during Tuesday's session.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师指出，最近几个交易日和几周的交易活动反映了市场对美联储更加鹰派的定价。周二交易中，软件和其他成长型股票是主要股指中表现最差的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> \"When you have an anticipation of higher interest rates, growth stocks or long-duration growth stocks certainly get hit the hardest,\" Art Hogan, national chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. \"When you do that net present value calculation with a higher interest rate, that implied multiple or ascribed multiple to growth names comes in. So a lot of that's been priced in. When you think about some of those real growth-y names and momentum names and risk assets, they've seen a lot of carnage.\"</p><p><blockquote>全国首席市场策略师阿特·霍根周二对雅虎财经直播表示：“当你预期利率上升时，成长型股票或长期成长型股票肯定会受到最严重的打击。”“当你用较高的利率进行净现值计算时，成长型公司的隐含倍数或归属倍数就会出现。所以很多都已经被定价了。当你想到一些真正的成长型公司和动量型公司时名字和风险资产，他们已经看到了很多屠杀。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What the market is trying to tell us here is that when you set your asset allocation plan for next year, you want to have a barbell approach with growth on one side — you want to have those growth names that are actually valued at a multiple to earnings, not a multiple to revenues or a multiple to cash flows or a multiple to sales,\" he added. \"We anticipate 2022 is going to be very much like 2021, where you really want to have a balance between growth and value.\"</p><p><blockquote>“市场在这里试图告诉我们的是，当你制定明年的资产配置计划时，你希望采取杠铃法，一方面是增长——你希望那些实际估值为收益倍数的增长名称，而不是收入的倍数、现金流的倍数或销售额的倍数，”他补充道。“我们预计2022年将与2021年非常相似，您确实希望在增长和价值之间取得平衡。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153017502","content_text":"U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%,S&P 500 gains 0.1%; Dow trades flat but hanging around a gain of 0.1%.\nAll eyes on Wednesday will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement and press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Many market participants expect these will set the stage for the Fed to speed the withdrawal of its crisis-era stimulus programs, with the firming economic recovery and soaring inflation suggesting the central bank has room for a more hawkish tilt to policy. Last week's Consumer Price Index showed thefastest surge in U.S. consumer prices since 1982on a year-over-year basis in November. And on Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index jumped by the most on record at a 9.6% year-over-year increase for last month.\nSpecifically, many investors anticipate the Fed will ramp up the rate of tapering of its asset-purchasing program, which took place at a rate of $120 billion per month in combined Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities from the start of the pandemic through November. Last month, the Fed began dialing back these purchases by $15 billion, and announced another $15 billion reduction for December.\n\"We don't think that the Fed is really going to have any surprises for the markets [Wednesday]. They're probably going to announce that they're going to ... accelerate tapering, and that they'll probably finish that by March. But we think that they're going to leave themselves lots flexibility around raising interest rates,\" Tracie McMillion, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global asset allocation strategy,told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.She added she expects just one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the second half of next year.\nOther pundits, however, expect an earlier liftoff on interest rates, which maybe be reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) updated Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday.\n\"The announcement of faster tapering after today's FOMC meeting is a done deal; we'd be astonished by anything other than a plan to complete asset purchases by the end of March at the latest,\" wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note on Tuesday. He expects the Fed to stick to its prior plan of purchasing $90 billion in its asset-purchase program this month, before doubling the rate of tapering from its current $15 billion per month starting in January.\n\"That would mean purchases drop to $60 billion in January, $30 billion in February, and zero in March, leaving the door open to a rate hike that month if the inflation outlook has not improved, via a clear and sustained increase in the labor force participation rate,\" he added.\nA number of strategists noted the trading activity in recent sessions and weeks has reflected the market pricing of a more hawkish Fed. Software and other growth names were some of the biggest laggards in the major indexes during Tuesday's session.\n\"When you have an anticipation of higher interest rates, growth stocks or long-duration growth stocks certainly get hit the hardest,\" Art Hogan, national chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. \"When you do that net present value calculation with a higher interest rate, that implied multiple or ascribed multiple to growth names comes in. So a lot of that's been priced in. When you think about some of those real growth-y names and momentum names and risk assets, they've seen a lot of carnage.\"\n\"What the market is trying to tell us here is that when you set your asset allocation plan for next year, you want to have a barbell approach with growth on one side — you want to have those growth names that are actually valued at a multiple to earnings, not a multiple to revenues or a multiple to cash flows or a multiple to sales,\" he added. \"We anticipate 2022 is going to be very much like 2021, where you really want to have a balance between growth and value.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607870979,"gmtCreate":1639528627062,"gmtModify":1639528627062,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572472215057712","idStr":"3572472215057712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607870979","repostId":"1101216534","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101216534","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639525158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101216534?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal<blockquote>PayPal控股：逢低买入会让你付钱</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101216534","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.</li>  <li>The company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares egregiously over-priced.</li>  <li>I believe that PayPal's FCF calculation is not a fair representation with transaction and credit losses being added to the company's cashflow.</li>  <li>Advancement in financial technology will begin to reduce the benefit of PayPal's value proposition.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与同行相比，PayPal控股公司2021年的投资资本回报率较弱。</li><li>该公司目前的市盈率是GAAP预期市盈率的53倍，这使得股价被严重高估。</li><li>我认为PayPal的自由现金流计算并不公平，交易和信用损失被添加到公司的现金流中。</li><li>金融技术的进步将开始降低PayPal价值主张的好处。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal Holdings (PYPL), the household online payment firm with around 416 million active merchant accounts is currently gaining investors attention after sliding 30% over the last 6 months. The stock is extremely popular amongst American investors as approximately 245 hedge funds have it in their top 10 holdings. That being said, despite the large institutions and Wall Street's optimism around the stock, I fail to see what the majority of analysts see in PayPal. To begin with, despite the company's stock sliding 30% over the last 6 months, PayPal is still trading at a GAAP forward Price-to-earnings multiple of 53. Secondly, the company has had poor performance when looking at their return on invested capital. Thirdly, PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are inaccurate to the actual volume of cash the company is bringing in. Lastly, PayPal's business model appears to be fizzling out as India's FinTech expansion has shown that a transaction middleman is becoming increasingly redundant.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股(PYPL)是一家拥有约4.16亿活跃商户账户的家庭在线支付公司，在过去6个月下滑30%后，目前正受到投资者的关注。该股在美国投资者中非常受欢迎，大约有245家对冲基金将其列入前十大持股。话虽如此，尽管大型机构和华尔街对该股持乐观态度，但我看不到大多数分析师对PayPal的看法。首先，尽管该公司股价在过去6个月内下跌了30%，但PayPal的GAAP预期市盈率仍为53倍。其次，从投资资本回报率来看，该公司的业绩不佳。第三，在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算与公司带来的实际现金量不准确。最后，随着印度金融科技的扩张表明交易中间人变得越来越多余，PayPal的商业模式似乎正在失败。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal's Underperformance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal表现不佳</b></blockquote></p><p> In order for me to come to the conclusion that PayPal has under-performed this year, I had compared the returns on invested capital of PayPal versus peers Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA). The return on invested capital is a key metric measuring how well management is at deploying their capital profitably. The following are the three companies current ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>为了让我得出PayPal今年表现不佳的结论，我将PayPal的投资资本回报率与同行Visa Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：V）和万事达卡Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：MA）进行了比较。投资资本回报率是衡量管理层如何利用资本盈利的关键指标。以下是三家公司目前的ROIC。</blockquote></p><p> PYPL return on invested capital</p><p><blockquote>PYPL投资资本回报率</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> One of the main reasons why Visa and Mastercard has and will continue to outperform PayPal in returns on invested capital is because their business models are much less risky. Visa and Mastercard are just payment processors who pass on any additional risks to retailers and banks, whereas PayPal has to endure the risk of a merchant either defaulting or not making a payment. That additional risk PayPal is forced to endure leads to transaction and credit losses which hurts their profitability. This ultimately gives PayPal's competitors a competitive advantage when looking through the lens of an investor.</p><p><blockquote>Visa和Mastercard在投资资本回报率方面已经并将继续优于PayPal的主要原因之一是因为它们的商业模式风险要小得多。Visa和Mastercard只是将任何额外风险转嫁给零售商和银行的支付处理商，而PayPal则必须承受商家违约或不付款的风险。PayPal被迫承受的额外风险会导致交易和信用损失，从而损害其盈利能力。从投资者的角度来看，这最终使PayPal的竞争对手获得了竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Transaction And Credit Losses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易及信贷亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> From my perspective, the method in which is used to calculate PayPal's cashflows comes with some misrepresentations. The big problem with PayPal's FCF calculation is that they are able to add back all of their transaction and credit losses back onto their cashflow statement. This made up around 30% of PayPal's operating cashflow in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，用于计算PayPal现金流的方法存在一些虚假陈述。PayPal自由现金流计算的一个大问题是，他们能够将所有交易和信用损失加回现金流量表中。这约占PayPal 2020年运营现金流的30%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, these transaction and credit losses have been making up a solid chunk of PayPal's annual free cashflow. These transaction and credit losses are simple to explain. PayPal provides loans to individuals with bad credit, and should they write off those bad loans (which they're in fact doing a lot of), the losses are added back on PayPal's cashflow statement. I am of the opinion that investors should be aware of the risks involved in this and be vigilant when accounting it in your analysis. PayPal even acknowledges the risk of these bad loans in their 10-k form.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些交易和信用损失一直占PayPal年度自由现金流的很大一部分。这些交易和信用损失很容易解释。PayPal向信用不良的个人提供贷款，如果他们注销这些不良贷款（事实上他们做了很多），损失就会重新添加到PayPal的现金流量表中。我认为，投资者应该意识到其中涉及的风险，并在分析中考虑它时保持警惕。PayPal甚至在10-k表格中承认了这些不良贷款的风险。</blockquote></p><p> For this reason, the large amount of transaction and credit losses being added back onto PayPal's cashflow statement represent additional risk and also leads me to believe that their cashflow calculation is slightly misrepresented.</p><p><blockquote>因此，PayPal现金流量表中添加的大量交易和信用损失代表了额外的风险，也让我相信他们的现金流计算略有歪曲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> In order to compute the intrinsic value of PayPal stock, I will provide a discount cashflow model. The following is a forecast of some key data points needed to compute the calculation (all figures in millions USD).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算PayPal股票的内在价值，我将提供一个贴现现金流模型。以下是计算计算所需的一些关键数据点的预测（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> For this calculation, I will be subtracting PayPal's transaction and credit losses as I've earlier stated that they overstate the company's cashflow. Additionally, I used 3 year moving averages to forecast D&amp;A and CapEx costs. Lastly, I chose a discount rate of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The following is my discount cashflow model.</p><p><blockquote>在此计算中，我将减去PayPal的交易和信用损失，因为我之前曾表示，它们夸大了公司的现金流。此外，我使用3年移动平均线来预测D&amp;A和资本支出成本。最后，我选择了8%的贴现率和3%的永久增长率。以下是我的贴现现金流模型。</blockquote></p><p> My final consensus after computing my DCF model is that PayPal's intrinsic value is 77% lower than where shares are currently trading. This makes PayPal shares egregiously overvalued. Furthermore, looking deeper at PayPal's valuation using a comparable cost analysis, you can once again see by comparing the company's EV/EBITDA ratio to Visa and Mastercard, how overpriced PayPal shares are currently when compared to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>在计算DCF模型后，我的最终共识是，PayPal的内在价值比当前股票交易价格低77%。这使得PayPal股价被严重高估。此外，使用可比成本分析更深入地了解PayPal的估值，通过将该公司的EV/EBITDA比率与Visa和Mastercard进行比较，您可以再次看到PayPal股票目前与同行相比的定价有多高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I thought it would be important to add that PayPal's 1 year EPS growth rate is only about 4%, which compared to peers Visa and Mastercard is worse. Additionally, despite PayPal having a higher EV/EBITDA than both Mastercard and Visa, the company's YoY quarterly EPS growth has been lower and has shown a massive slowdown. Moreover, I don't expect PayPal's growth to pick up in the future as the industry moves away from their value proposition. The following is a chart representing quarterly YoY growth of the three companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为需要补充的是，PayPal的1年每股收益增长率仅为4%左右，与同行Visa和Mastercard相比较差。此外，尽管PayPal的EV/EBITDA高于万事达卡和Visa，但该公司的季度每股收益同比增长较低，并且大幅放缓。此外，随着该行业偏离他们的价值主张，我预计PayPal的增长未来不会回升。下图显示了三家公司的季度同比增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, PayPal's EV-to-EBITDA is higher, despite lower EPS growth then their two largest rivals. To conclude on PayPal's valuation, PayPal has the price of a growth stock however, the company's growth rate and growth catalyst closer resembles a retirement value stock. This further amplifies my conviction that in my opinion PayPal shares are overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，尽管每股收益增长低于两个最大竞争对手，但PayPal的电动汽车与EBITDA之比更高。总结PayPal的估值，PayPal拥有成长型股票的价格，然而，该公司的增长率和增长催化剂更类似于退休价值股票。这进一步强化了我的信念，即我认为PayPal股票被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FinTech Evolution Is Leaving PayPal Behind</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技的发展正在将PayPal抛在后面</b></blockquote></p><p> When PayPal originally released its initial concept and value proposition, it took the world by storm as their business model was nothing others had seen before. That being said, the greatest risk PayPal faces in the future is that its clock may be ticking as banks and other new FinTech solutions change the market to where we just have bank-to-bank transactions, leaving less need for a middleman such as PayPal. You're already beginning to see this in countries such as China and now India. India specifically is set to have bank-to-bank digital payments increase rapidly over the next couple of years. The following is the forecasted dollar amount of digital payments in India in trillions of rupees.</p><p><blockquote>当PayPal最初发布其最初的概念和价值主张时，它风靡了世界，因为他们的商业模式是其他人从未见过的。话虽如此，PayPal未来面临的最大风险是，随着银行和其他新的金融科技解决方案将市场改变为只有银行对银行交易的市场，从而减少对PayPal等中间商的需求，它的时间可能正在流逝。你已经开始在中国和现在的印度等国家看到这一点。特别是印度，银行间的数字支付将在未来几年迅速增长。以下是印度数字支付的预测金额，单位为万亿卢比。</blockquote></p><p> Between China and India's adoption of FinTech and digital payments, the countries are setting the stage as to where the payment market will be headed in the next couple of years. Unfortunately for PayPal, that seems to be a world without a middleman between a merchant and a bank. Mastercard and Visa don't carry this risk because both companies just process payments, leaving them to be much better alternative investments.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和印度对金融科技和数字支付的采用，这两个国家正在为未来几年支付市场的走向奠定基础。不幸的是，对于PayPal来说，这似乎是一个商人和银行之间没有中间人的世界。万事达卡和维萨卡不承担这种风险，因为两家公司都只处理付款，使它们成为更好的另类投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why I Could Be Wrong And Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么我可能是错的和最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> To conclude my bearish PayPal thesis, I would like to say that if PayPal is able to pull together a couple of decent quarters, then in the short-term I could be wrong about the stock price as Wall Street's fondness for the company could push the valuation a little bit higher. That being said, I have to say that longer-term this is definitely a position I would want to avoid. PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are questionable, the company is currently egregiously overpriced with little growth, and its business model could begin to be fazed out down the line. For these reasons, I believe that PayPal is poised to fall by an additional 30-40% over the next 1-2 years. As much as investors want to talk about the past performance for this company, past performance does not equate to future performance. Therefore, I have to say that if you decide to purchase some PayPal shares, I think you will certainly pay pal.</p><p><blockquote>在结束我看跌PayPal的论点时，我想说的是，如果PayPal能够在几个季度取得不错的业绩，那么短期内我对股价的看法可能是错误的，因为华尔街对该公司的喜爱可能会推动估值高一点。话虽如此，我不得不说，从长远来看，这绝对是我想要避免的职位。在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算值得怀疑，该公司目前的定价过高，几乎没有增长，而且其商业模式可能会开始受到影响。出于这些原因，我认为PayPal在未来1-2年内将再下跌30-40%。尽管投资者很想谈论这家公司过去的业绩，但过去的业绩并不等同于未来的业绩。因此，我不得不说，如果你决定购买一些PayPal股票，我想你肯定会付钱给pal。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal<blockquote>PayPal控股：逢低买入会让你付钱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal<blockquote>PayPal控股：逢低买入会让你付钱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 07:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.</li>  <li>The company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares egregiously over-priced.</li>  <li>I believe that PayPal's FCF calculation is not a fair representation with transaction and credit losses being added to the company's cashflow.</li>  <li>Advancement in financial technology will begin to reduce the benefit of PayPal's value proposition.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与同行相比，PayPal控股公司2021年的投资资本回报率较弱。</li><li>该公司目前的市盈率是GAAP预期市盈率的53倍，这使得股价被严重高估。</li><li>我认为PayPal的自由现金流计算并不公平，交易和信用损失被添加到公司的现金流中。</li><li>金融技术的进步将开始降低PayPal价值主张的好处。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal Holdings (PYPL), the household online payment firm with around 416 million active merchant accounts is currently gaining investors attention after sliding 30% over the last 6 months. The stock is extremely popular amongst American investors as approximately 245 hedge funds have it in their top 10 holdings. That being said, despite the large institutions and Wall Street's optimism around the stock, I fail to see what the majority of analysts see in PayPal. To begin with, despite the company's stock sliding 30% over the last 6 months, PayPal is still trading at a GAAP forward Price-to-earnings multiple of 53. Secondly, the company has had poor performance when looking at their return on invested capital. Thirdly, PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are inaccurate to the actual volume of cash the company is bringing in. Lastly, PayPal's business model appears to be fizzling out as India's FinTech expansion has shown that a transaction middleman is becoming increasingly redundant.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股(PYPL)是一家拥有约4.16亿活跃商户账户的家庭在线支付公司，在过去6个月下滑30%后，目前正受到投资者的关注。该股在美国投资者中非常受欢迎，大约有245家对冲基金将其列入前十大持股。话虽如此，尽管大型机构和华尔街对该股持乐观态度，但我看不到大多数分析师对PayPal的看法。首先，尽管该公司股价在过去6个月内下跌了30%，但PayPal的GAAP预期市盈率仍为53倍。其次，从投资资本回报率来看，该公司的业绩不佳。第三，在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算与公司带来的实际现金量不准确。最后，随着印度金融科技的扩张表明交易中间人变得越来越多余，PayPal的商业模式似乎正在失败。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal's Underperformance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal表现不佳</b></blockquote></p><p> In order for me to come to the conclusion that PayPal has under-performed this year, I had compared the returns on invested capital of PayPal versus peers Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA). The return on invested capital is a key metric measuring how well management is at deploying their capital profitably. The following are the three companies current ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>为了让我得出PayPal今年表现不佳的结论，我将PayPal的投资资本回报率与同行Visa Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：V）和万事达卡Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：MA）进行了比较。投资资本回报率是衡量管理层如何利用资本盈利的关键指标。以下是三家公司目前的ROIC。</blockquote></p><p> PYPL return on invested capital</p><p><blockquote>PYPL投资资本回报率</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> One of the main reasons why Visa and Mastercard has and will continue to outperform PayPal in returns on invested capital is because their business models are much less risky. Visa and Mastercard are just payment processors who pass on any additional risks to retailers and banks, whereas PayPal has to endure the risk of a merchant either defaulting or not making a payment. That additional risk PayPal is forced to endure leads to transaction and credit losses which hurts their profitability. This ultimately gives PayPal's competitors a competitive advantage when looking through the lens of an investor.</p><p><blockquote>Visa和Mastercard在投资资本回报率方面已经并将继续优于PayPal的主要原因之一是因为它们的商业模式风险要小得多。Visa和Mastercard只是将任何额外风险转嫁给零售商和银行的支付处理商，而PayPal则必须承受商家违约或不付款的风险。PayPal被迫承受的额外风险会导致交易和信用损失，从而损害其盈利能力。从投资者的角度来看，这最终使PayPal的竞争对手获得了竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Transaction And Credit Losses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易及信贷亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> From my perspective, the method in which is used to calculate PayPal's cashflows comes with some misrepresentations. The big problem with PayPal's FCF calculation is that they are able to add back all of their transaction and credit losses back onto their cashflow statement. This made up around 30% of PayPal's operating cashflow in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，用于计算PayPal现金流的方法存在一些虚假陈述。PayPal自由现金流计算的一个大问题是，他们能够将所有交易和信用损失加回现金流量表中。这约占PayPal 2020年运营现金流的30%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, these transaction and credit losses have been making up a solid chunk of PayPal's annual free cashflow. These transaction and credit losses are simple to explain. PayPal provides loans to individuals with bad credit, and should they write off those bad loans (which they're in fact doing a lot of), the losses are added back on PayPal's cashflow statement. I am of the opinion that investors should be aware of the risks involved in this and be vigilant when accounting it in your analysis. PayPal even acknowledges the risk of these bad loans in their 10-k form.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些交易和信用损失一直占PayPal年度自由现金流的很大一部分。这些交易和信用损失很容易解释。PayPal向信用不良的个人提供贷款，如果他们注销这些不良贷款（事实上他们做了很多），损失就会重新添加到PayPal的现金流量表中。我认为，投资者应该意识到其中涉及的风险，并在分析中考虑它时保持警惕。PayPal甚至在10-k表格中承认了这些不良贷款的风险。</blockquote></p><p> For this reason, the large amount of transaction and credit losses being added back onto PayPal's cashflow statement represent additional risk and also leads me to believe that their cashflow calculation is slightly misrepresented.</p><p><blockquote>因此，PayPal现金流量表中添加的大量交易和信用损失代表了额外的风险，也让我相信他们的现金流计算略有歪曲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> In order to compute the intrinsic value of PayPal stock, I will provide a discount cashflow model. The following is a forecast of some key data points needed to compute the calculation (all figures in millions USD).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算PayPal股票的内在价值，我将提供一个贴现现金流模型。以下是计算计算所需的一些关键数据点的预测（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> For this calculation, I will be subtracting PayPal's transaction and credit losses as I've earlier stated that they overstate the company's cashflow. Additionally, I used 3 year moving averages to forecast D&amp;A and CapEx costs. Lastly, I chose a discount rate of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The following is my discount cashflow model.</p><p><blockquote>在此计算中，我将减去PayPal的交易和信用损失，因为我之前曾表示，它们夸大了公司的现金流。此外，我使用3年移动平均线来预测D&amp;A和资本支出成本。最后，我选择了8%的贴现率和3%的永久增长率。以下是我的贴现现金流模型。</blockquote></p><p> My final consensus after computing my DCF model is that PayPal's intrinsic value is 77% lower than where shares are currently trading. This makes PayPal shares egregiously overvalued. Furthermore, looking deeper at PayPal's valuation using a comparable cost analysis, you can once again see by comparing the company's EV/EBITDA ratio to Visa and Mastercard, how overpriced PayPal shares are currently when compared to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>在计算DCF模型后，我的最终共识是，PayPal的内在价值比当前股票交易价格低77%。这使得PayPal股价被严重高估。此外，使用可比成本分析更深入地了解PayPal的估值，通过将该公司的EV/EBITDA比率与Visa和Mastercard进行比较，您可以再次看到PayPal股票目前与同行相比的定价有多高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I thought it would be important to add that PayPal's 1 year EPS growth rate is only about 4%, which compared to peers Visa and Mastercard is worse. Additionally, despite PayPal having a higher EV/EBITDA than both Mastercard and Visa, the company's YoY quarterly EPS growth has been lower and has shown a massive slowdown. Moreover, I don't expect PayPal's growth to pick up in the future as the industry moves away from their value proposition. The following is a chart representing quarterly YoY growth of the three companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为需要补充的是，PayPal的1年每股收益增长率仅为4%左右，与同行Visa和Mastercard相比较差。此外，尽管PayPal的EV/EBITDA高于万事达卡和Visa，但该公司的季度每股收益同比增长较低，并且大幅放缓。此外，随着该行业偏离他们的价值主张，我预计PayPal的增长未来不会回升。下图显示了三家公司的季度同比增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, PayPal's EV-to-EBITDA is higher, despite lower EPS growth then their two largest rivals. To conclude on PayPal's valuation, PayPal has the price of a growth stock however, the company's growth rate and growth catalyst closer resembles a retirement value stock. This further amplifies my conviction that in my opinion PayPal shares are overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，尽管每股收益增长低于两个最大竞争对手，但PayPal的电动汽车与EBITDA之比更高。总结PayPal的估值，PayPal拥有成长型股票的价格，然而，该公司的增长率和增长催化剂更类似于退休价值股票。这进一步强化了我的信念，即我认为PayPal股票被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FinTech Evolution Is Leaving PayPal Behind</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技的发展正在将PayPal抛在后面</b></blockquote></p><p> When PayPal originally released its initial concept and value proposition, it took the world by storm as their business model was nothing others had seen before. That being said, the greatest risk PayPal faces in the future is that its clock may be ticking as banks and other new FinTech solutions change the market to where we just have bank-to-bank transactions, leaving less need for a middleman such as PayPal. You're already beginning to see this in countries such as China and now India. India specifically is set to have bank-to-bank digital payments increase rapidly over the next couple of years. The following is the forecasted dollar amount of digital payments in India in trillions of rupees.</p><p><blockquote>当PayPal最初发布其最初的概念和价值主张时，它风靡了世界，因为他们的商业模式是其他人从未见过的。话虽如此，PayPal未来面临的最大风险是，随着银行和其他新的金融科技解决方案将市场改变为只有银行对银行交易的市场，从而减少对PayPal等中间商的需求，它的时间可能正在流逝。你已经开始在中国和现在的印度等国家看到这一点。特别是印度，银行间的数字支付将在未来几年迅速增长。以下是印度数字支付的预测金额，单位为万亿卢比。</blockquote></p><p> Between China and India's adoption of FinTech and digital payments, the countries are setting the stage as to where the payment market will be headed in the next couple of years. Unfortunately for PayPal, that seems to be a world without a middleman between a merchant and a bank. Mastercard and Visa don't carry this risk because both companies just process payments, leaving them to be much better alternative investments.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和印度对金融科技和数字支付的采用，这两个国家正在为未来几年支付市场的走向奠定基础。不幸的是，对于PayPal来说，这似乎是一个商人和银行之间没有中间人的世界。万事达卡和维萨卡不承担这种风险，因为两家公司都只处理付款，使它们成为更好的另类投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why I Could Be Wrong And Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么我可能是错的和最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> To conclude my bearish PayPal thesis, I would like to say that if PayPal is able to pull together a couple of decent quarters, then in the short-term I could be wrong about the stock price as Wall Street's fondness for the company could push the valuation a little bit higher. That being said, I have to say that longer-term this is definitely a position I would want to avoid. PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are questionable, the company is currently egregiously overpriced with little growth, and its business model could begin to be fazed out down the line. For these reasons, I believe that PayPal is poised to fall by an additional 30-40% over the next 1-2 years. As much as investors want to talk about the past performance for this company, past performance does not equate to future performance. Therefore, I have to say that if you decide to purchase some PayPal shares, I think you will certainly pay pal.</p><p><blockquote>在结束我看跌PayPal的论点时，我想说的是，如果PayPal能够在几个季度取得不错的业绩，那么短期内我对股价的看法可能是错误的，因为华尔街对该公司的喜爱可能会推动估值高一点。话虽如此，我不得不说，从长远来看，这绝对是我想要避免的职位。在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算值得怀疑，该公司目前的定价过高，几乎没有增长，而且其商业模式可能会开始受到影响。出于这些原因，我认为PayPal在未来1-2年内将再下跌30-40%。尽管投资者很想谈论这家公司过去的业绩，但过去的业绩并不等同于未来的业绩。因此，我不得不说，如果你决定购买一些PayPal股票，我想你肯定会付钱给pal。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475141-paypal-holdings-buying-dip-unattractive\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475141-paypal-holdings-buying-dip-unattractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101216534","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.\nThe company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares egregiously over-priced.\nI believe that PayPal's FCF calculation is not a fair representation with transaction and credit losses being added to the company's cashflow.\nAdvancement in financial technology will begin to reduce the benefit of PayPal's value proposition.\n\n\n\nInvestment Thesis\nPayPal Holdings (PYPL), the household online payment firm with around 416 million active merchant accounts is currently gaining investors attention after sliding 30% over the last 6 months. The stock is extremely popular amongst American investors as approximately 245 hedge funds have it in their top 10 holdings. That being said, despite the large institutions and Wall Street's optimism around the stock, I fail to see what the majority of analysts see in PayPal. To begin with, despite the company's stock sliding 30% over the last 6 months, PayPal is still trading at a GAAP forward Price-to-earnings multiple of 53. Secondly, the company has had poor performance when looking at their return on invested capital. Thirdly, PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are inaccurate to the actual volume of cash the company is bringing in. Lastly, PayPal's business model appears to be fizzling out as India's FinTech expansion has shown that a transaction middleman is becoming increasingly redundant.\n\nPayPal's Underperformance\nIn order for me to come to the conclusion that PayPal has under-performed this year, I had compared the returns on invested capital of PayPal versus peers Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA). The return on invested capital is a key metric measuring how well management is at deploying their capital profitably. The following are the three companies current ROIC.\n\nPYPL return on invested capital\nData by YCharts\nOne of the main reasons why Visa and Mastercard has and will continue to outperform PayPal in returns on invested capital is because their business models are much less risky. Visa and Mastercard are just payment processors who pass on any additional risks to retailers and banks, whereas PayPal has to endure the risk of a merchant either defaulting or not making a payment. That additional risk PayPal is forced to endure leads to transaction and credit losses which hurts their profitability. This ultimately gives PayPal's competitors a competitive advantage when looking through the lens of an investor.\n\nTransaction And Credit Losses\nFrom my perspective, the method in which is used to calculate PayPal's cashflows comes with some misrepresentations. The big problem with PayPal's FCF calculation is that they are able to add back all of their transaction and credit losses back onto their cashflow statement. This made up around 30% of PayPal's operating cashflow in 2020.\n\nAs you can see, these transaction and credit losses have been making up a solid chunk of PayPal's annual free cashflow. These transaction and credit losses are simple to explain. PayPal provides loans to individuals with bad credit, and should they write off those bad loans (which they're in fact doing a lot of), the losses are added back on PayPal's cashflow statement. I am of the opinion that investors should be aware of the risks involved in this and be vigilant when accounting it in your analysis. PayPal even acknowledges the risk of these bad loans in their 10-k form.\n\nFor this reason, the large amount of transaction and credit losses being added back onto PayPal's cashflow statement represent additional risk and also leads me to believe that their cashflow calculation is slightly misrepresented.\n\nValuation\nIn order to compute the intrinsic value of PayPal stock, I will provide a discount cashflow model. The following is a forecast of some key data points needed to compute the calculation (all figures in millions USD).\n\nFor this calculation, I will be subtracting PayPal's transaction and credit losses as I've earlier stated that they overstate the company's cashflow. Additionally, I used 3 year moving averages to forecast D&A and CapEx costs. Lastly, I chose a discount rate of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The following is my discount cashflow model.\nMy final consensus after computing my DCF model is that PayPal's intrinsic value is 77% lower than where shares are currently trading. This makes PayPal shares egregiously overvalued. Furthermore, looking deeper at PayPal's valuation using a comparable cost analysis, you can once again see by comparing the company's EV/EBITDA ratio to Visa and Mastercard, how overpriced PayPal shares are currently when compared to its peers.\n\nI thought it would be important to add that PayPal's 1 year EPS growth rate is only about 4%, which compared to peers Visa and Mastercard is worse. Additionally, despite PayPal having a higher EV/EBITDA than both Mastercard and Visa, the company's YoY quarterly EPS growth has been lower and has shown a massive slowdown. Moreover, I don't expect PayPal's growth to pick up in the future as the industry moves away from their value proposition. The following is a chart representing quarterly YoY growth of the three companies.\n\nAs you can see, PayPal's EV-to-EBITDA is higher, despite lower EPS growth then their two largest rivals. To conclude on PayPal's valuation, PayPal has the price of a growth stock however, the company's growth rate and growth catalyst closer resembles a retirement value stock. This further amplifies my conviction that in my opinion PayPal shares are overvalued.\n\nFinTech Evolution Is Leaving PayPal Behind\nWhen PayPal originally released its initial concept and value proposition, it took the world by storm as their business model was nothing others had seen before. That being said, the greatest risk PayPal faces in the future is that its clock may be ticking as banks and other new FinTech solutions change the market to where we just have bank-to-bank transactions, leaving less need for a middleman such as PayPal. You're already beginning to see this in countries such as China and now India. India specifically is set to have bank-to-bank digital payments increase rapidly over the next couple of years. The following is the forecasted dollar amount of digital payments in India in trillions of rupees.\n\nBetween China and India's adoption of FinTech and digital payments, the countries are setting the stage as to where the payment market will be headed in the next couple of years. Unfortunately for PayPal, that seems to be a world without a middleman between a merchant and a bank. Mastercard and Visa don't carry this risk because both companies just process payments, leaving them to be much better alternative investments.\n\n\nWhy I Could Be Wrong And Final Thoughts\nTo conclude my bearish PayPal thesis, I would like to say that if PayPal is able to pull together a couple of decent quarters, then in the short-term I could be wrong about the stock price as Wall Street's fondness for the company could push the valuation a little bit higher. That being said, I have to say that longer-term this is definitely a position I would want to avoid. PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are questionable, the company is currently egregiously overpriced with little growth, and its business model could begin to be fazed out down the line. For these reasons, I believe that PayPal is poised to fall by an additional 30-40% over the next 1-2 years. As much as investors want to talk about the past performance for this company, past performance does not equate to future performance. Therefore, I have to say that if you decide to purchase some PayPal shares, I think you will certainly pay pal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874138396,"gmtCreate":1637740755043,"gmtModify":1637740892058,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572472215057712","idStr":"3572472215057712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.&nbsp;","listText":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.&nbsp;","text":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874138396","repostId":"1158359024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158359024","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637714626,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158359024?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-24 08:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股价明年会上涨25%吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158359024","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?Apple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.That said, Tigress Financi","content":"<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价刚刚创下历史新高，但一位华尔街多头认为明年股价还可以再上涨25%。这是一个合理的预期吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在11月份创下历史新高。周一，我认为苹果已经成为主导和重塑其运营所在的消费科技市场的专家。部分出于这个原因，即使在160美元的历史峰值价格下，AAPL股票在我看来也值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Tigress Financial的Ivan Feinseth最近将股价目标定为近200美元，创下了近200美元的新高。按照这些水平，AAPL在未来12个月内将呈现约25%的上涨潜力。这是一个合理的预期吗？这个数字会不会太保守了？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What AAPL at $200 means</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 200美元意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> From a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently&nbsp;in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.</p><p><blockquote>从市盈率的角度来看，苹果明年的估值倍数需要扩大到32.8倍，该股才能在2022年此时上涨25%并达到每股200美元。作为参考，今天可比远期倍数仅为28.2倍。远期市盈率直到2020年8月下旬才攀升至30多岁，就在AAPL在第三季度末大幅调整之前。</blockquote></p><p> All the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of&nbsp;strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.</p><p><blockquote>当然，以上所有内容都假设2023年每股收益6.09美元的共识保持不变。如果苹果公司能够在未来几个季度取得超出共识的业绩，即使估值没有任何扩张，该公司的股价也可能升至200美元。例如，这可能是假日季度iPhone销售强劲的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What history says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> History does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>历史并不总是重复，但它往往押韵。从这个角度来看，考虑到AAPL目前正处于历史高位，苹果在12个月内上涨25%的可能性似乎更小。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven has explained&nbsp;that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家解释说，如果在大幅下跌期间购买苹果股票，投资其股票往往会在接下来的12个月内获得最高回报。平均而言，当该股从顶部下跌30%以上后买入时，一年的涨幅已接近50%。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.</p><p><blockquote>相反，如果投资者仅在2007年第一部iPhone推出以来的历史高点买入AAPL，并持有股票整整一年，他或她的平均回报率将“仅”为19%。然而，25%或更多的收益并不罕见，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efda4e69cc836339cb92cc143f3dbab\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL从峰值开始的一年涨幅分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为AAPL是一个很好的买入并持有股票，每股160美元。然而，从历史高点赚取25%并不是一件容易的事，尽管这种情况以前也发生过。</blockquote></p><p> I would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我不一定指望苹果股票在未来12个月左右产生极高的回报。这种情况从峰值价格开始发生的可能性很小，尤其是在股价仅在过去24个月内就上涨了140%之后。但考虑到强劲的商业基本面，更温和、仍跑赢市场的涨幅肯定不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股价明年会上涨25%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股价明年会上涨25%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-24 08:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价刚刚创下历史新高，但一位华尔街多头认为明年股价还可以再上涨25%。这是一个合理的预期吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在11月份创下历史新高。周一，我认为苹果已经成为主导和重塑其运营所在的消费科技市场的专家。部分出于这个原因，即使在160美元的历史峰值价格下，AAPL股票在我看来也值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Tigress Financial的Ivan Feinseth最近将股价目标定为近200美元，创下了近200美元的新高。按照这些水平，AAPL在未来12个月内将呈现约25%的上涨潜力。这是一个合理的预期吗？这个数字会不会太保守了？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What AAPL at $200 means</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 200美元意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> From a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently&nbsp;in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.</p><p><blockquote>从市盈率的角度来看，苹果明年的估值倍数需要扩大到32.8倍，该股才能在2022年此时上涨25%并达到每股200美元。作为参考，今天可比远期倍数仅为28.2倍。远期市盈率直到2020年8月下旬才攀升至30多岁，就在AAPL在第三季度末大幅调整之前。</blockquote></p><p> All the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of&nbsp;strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.</p><p><blockquote>当然，以上所有内容都假设2023年每股收益6.09美元的共识保持不变。如果苹果公司能够在未来几个季度取得超出共识的业绩，即使估值没有任何扩张，该公司的股价也可能升至200美元。例如，这可能是假日季度iPhone销售强劲的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What history says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> History does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>历史并不总是重复，但它往往押韵。从这个角度来看，考虑到AAPL目前正处于历史高位，苹果在12个月内上涨25%的可能性似乎更小。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven has explained&nbsp;that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家解释说，如果在大幅下跌期间购买苹果股票，投资其股票往往会在接下来的12个月内获得最高回报。平均而言，当该股从顶部下跌30%以上后买入时，一年的涨幅已接近50%。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.</p><p><blockquote>相反，如果投资者仅在2007年第一部iPhone推出以来的历史高点买入AAPL，并持有股票整整一年，他或她的平均回报率将“仅”为19%。然而，25%或更多的收益并不罕见，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efda4e69cc836339cb92cc143f3dbab\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL从峰值开始的一年涨幅分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为AAPL是一个很好的买入并持有股票，每股160美元。然而，从历史高点赚取25%并不是一件容易的事，尽管这种情况以前也发生过。</blockquote></p><p> I would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我不一定指望苹果股票在未来12个月左右产生极高的回报。这种情况从峰值价格开始发生的可能性很小，尤其是在股价仅在过去24个月内就上涨了140%之后。但考虑到强劲的商业基本面，更温和、仍跑赢市场的涨幅肯定不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158359024","content_text":"Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?\nApple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.\nFigure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.\nThat said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?\nWhat AAPL at $200 means\nFrom a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.\nAll the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.\nWhat history says\nHistory does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.\nThe Apple Maven has explained that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.\nInstead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.\nFigure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.\nI would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854223037,"gmtCreate":1635463947889,"gmtModify":1635463947969,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572472215057712","idStr":"3572472215057712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.&nbsp;","listText":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.&nbsp;","text":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854223037","repostId":"1178207364","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178207364","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635460531,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178207364?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-29 06:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple sales miss expectations, supply issues cost company $6 billion<blockquote>苹果销量未达预期，供应问题导致公司损失60亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178207364","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday, which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.\"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southe","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday,&nbsp;which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints&nbsp;on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.</p><p><blockquote>周四，苹果第四财季营收不及华尔街预期，苹果CEO Tim Cook将此归因于iPhone、iPad和Mac的供应限制超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple fell 3.7% in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果盘后交易中下跌3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3b61df2acaab5e8ff56c1872221c60\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> \"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southeast Asia.\"Cook said that the impact will be even worse during the current holiday sales quarter.</p><p><blockquote>库克表示：“尽管供应限制超出预期，我们估计供应限制约为60亿美元，但我们的表现非常强劲。”“供应限制是由备受关注的全行业芯片短缺以及东南亚与新冠疫情相关的制造业中断造成的。”库克表示，在当前的假日销售季度，影响将更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> However, Apple's overall revenue was still up 29%&nbsp;and each of its product categories grew on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果的整体收入仍增长了29%，其每个产品类别均同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Here's how Apple did versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果与Refinitiv共识估计的表现：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>EPS:</b>&nbsp;$1.24 vs. $1.24&nbsp;estimated</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>&nbsp;$83.36&nbsp;billion&nbsp;&nbsp;vs.&nbsp;$84.85&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 29% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>iPhone revenue:</b>&nbsp;$38.87&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $41.51&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 47% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Services revenue:</b>&nbsp;$18.28&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $17.64&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated,&nbsp;up 25.6% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Other Products revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.79&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.33&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 11.5% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Mac revenue:</b>&nbsp;$9.18&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 1.6% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>iPad revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.25&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $7.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 21.4% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Gross margin:</b>&nbsp;42.2% vs. 42.0% estimated</li> </ul> iPhone sales were up 47% year-over-year, but still came in under Wall Street estimates.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>EPS：</b>1.24美元与预估1.24美元</li><li><b>收入：</b>833.6亿美元，预期848.5亿美元，同比增长29%</li><li><b>iPhone收入：</b>388.7亿美元对比。预计415.1亿美元，同比增长47%</li><li><b>服务收入：</b>182.8亿美元对比。预计176.4亿美元，同比增长25.6%</li><li><b>其他产品收入：</b>87.9亿美元对比。预计93.3亿美元，同比增长11.5%</li><li><b>Mac收入：</b>91.8亿美元对比。预计92.3亿美元，同比增长1.6%</li><li><b>iPad收入：</b>82.5亿美元对比。预计72.3亿美元，同比增长21.4%</li><li><b>毛利率：</b>42.2%vs.估计值42.0%</li></ul>iPhone销量同比增长47%，但仍低于华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple's results were mixed in a fiscal fourth quarter seen as a lull before the high-sales holiday end of year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第四财季的业绩好坏参半，被视为年底高销售假期之前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple said revenues and profits for the fiscal fourth quarter were $83.4 billion and $1.24 per share, compared with analyst estimates of $84.8 billion and $1.24 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，苹果表示，第四财季营收和利润分别为834亿美元和每股1.24美元，而分析师预期为848亿美元和每股1.24美元。</blockquote></p><p> The results were a rocky end to a fiscal year of above-expectations sales led by its iPhone 12 models and strong sales of Mac computers and iPads for working and learning from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这一结果为本财年的销售超出预期画上了一个艰难的句号，该财年由iPhone 12机型以及用于在家工作和学习的Mac电脑和iPad的强劲销售引领。</blockquote></p><p> Apple told investors in July that chip constraints would start to hit its iPhone and iPad lineups for the first time in the fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在7月份告诉投资者，芯片限制将在第四季度首次开始影响其iPhone和iPad产品线。</blockquote></p><p> Apple posted its results shortly after retailer Amazon.com&nbsp;forecast holiday-quarter sales well below Wall Street expectations, citing labor supply shortages and global supply chain issues in part.</p><p><blockquote>在零售商亚马逊预测假日季销售额远低于华尔街预期后不久，苹果公布了业绩，部分原因是劳动力供应短缺和全球供应链问题。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has \"managed to navigate the problems fairly well, but hasn’t escaped unscathed, and an extended duration of these problems will spell trouble, especially because the market is unforgiving when it comes to Apple’s performance,\" said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.</p><p><blockquote>索菲·伦德-耶茨(Sophie Lund-Yates)表示，苹果“相当好地解决了这些问题，但也未能毫发无损，这些问题持续时间的延长将带来麻烦，特别是因为市场对苹果的表现是无情的”。Hargreaves Lansdown的股票分析师。</blockquote></p><p> <b>MISSES</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未命中</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple missed expectations in two key categories.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在两个关键类别上未达到预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple said fourth-quarter iPhone sales were $38.9 billion, short of estimates of $41.5 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，苹果表示，第四季度iPhone销售额为389亿美元，低于预期的415亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cook said that chips made with older technology remain the key supply constraint. He said that Apple remains unsure whether the shortages will ease after the holiday shopping season.</p><p><blockquote>库克表示，采用旧技术制造的芯片仍然是关键的供应限制。他表示，苹果仍不确定假期购物季后短缺情况是否会缓解。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's very difficult to call,\" Cook said.</p><p><blockquote>“这对看涨期权来说非常困难，”Cook说。</blockquote></p><p> The company's accessories segment, which contains fast-growing categories like its AirPods wireless headphones, came in at $8.8 billion, half a billion dollars lower than analyst expectations of $9.3 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，该公司的配件部门包括AirPods无线耳机等快速增长的类别，收入为88亿美元，比分析师预期的93亿美元低5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other segments fared better. Sales for iPads and Macs were $8.3 billion and $9.2 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $7.2 billion and $9.2 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>其他细分市场表现较好。根据Refinitiv的数据，iPad和Mac的销售额分别为83亿美元和92亿美元，而分析师预计为72亿美元和92亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company's services segment - which contains its App Store business - had sales of $18.3 billion in revenue, up 26%, compared with analyst expectations of $17.6 billion. Cook said that Apple now has 745 million paid subscribers to its platform, up from the 700 million it disclosed a quarter ago.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的服务部门（包括App Store业务）销售额为183亿美元，增长26%，而分析师预期为176亿美元。Cook表示，苹果目前在其平台上拥有7.45亿付费用户，高于一个季度前披露的7亿。</blockquote></p><p> \"Services were strong, and it shows the beauty and durability of software and services, as there are better margins and no supply issues, since software doesn't arrive on a container ship,\" said Hal Eddins, chief economist at Apple shareholder Capital Investment Companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股东资本首席经济学家哈尔·埃丁斯(Hal Eddins)表示：“服务表现强劲，这显示了软件和服务的美观和耐用性，因为利润率更高，而且不存在供应问题，因为软件不会通过集装箱船到达。”投资公司。</blockquote></p><p> Another bright spot in the company's results were its sales in China, which were up 83% to $14.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司业绩的另一个亮点是在中国的销售额，增长了83%，达到146亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it returned $24 billion to shareholders during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，本季度向股东返还了240亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple sales miss expectations, supply issues cost company $6 billion<blockquote>苹果销量未达预期，供应问题导致公司损失60亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple sales miss expectations, supply issues cost company $6 billion<blockquote>苹果销量未达预期，供应问题导致公司损失60亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-29 06:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday,&nbsp;which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints&nbsp;on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.</p><p><blockquote>周四，苹果第四财季营收不及华尔街预期，苹果CEO Tim Cook将此归因于iPhone、iPad和Mac的供应限制超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple fell 3.7% in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果盘后交易中下跌3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3b61df2acaab5e8ff56c1872221c60\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> \"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southeast Asia.\"Cook said that the impact will be even worse during the current holiday sales quarter.</p><p><blockquote>库克表示：“尽管供应限制超出预期，我们估计供应限制约为60亿美元，但我们的表现非常强劲。”“供应限制是由备受关注的全行业芯片短缺以及东南亚与新冠疫情相关的制造业中断造成的。”库克表示，在当前的假日销售季度，影响将更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> However, Apple's overall revenue was still up 29%&nbsp;and each of its product categories grew on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果的整体收入仍增长了29%，其每个产品类别均同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Here's how Apple did versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果与Refinitiv共识估计的表现：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>EPS:</b>&nbsp;$1.24 vs. $1.24&nbsp;estimated</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>&nbsp;$83.36&nbsp;billion&nbsp;&nbsp;vs.&nbsp;$84.85&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 29% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>iPhone revenue:</b>&nbsp;$38.87&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $41.51&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 47% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Services revenue:</b>&nbsp;$18.28&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $17.64&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated,&nbsp;up 25.6% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Other Products revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.79&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.33&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 11.5% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Mac revenue:</b>&nbsp;$9.18&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 1.6% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>iPad revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.25&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $7.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 21.4% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Gross margin:</b>&nbsp;42.2% vs. 42.0% estimated</li> </ul> iPhone sales were up 47% year-over-year, but still came in under Wall Street estimates.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>EPS：</b>1.24美元与预估1.24美元</li><li><b>收入：</b>833.6亿美元，预期848.5亿美元，同比增长29%</li><li><b>iPhone收入：</b>388.7亿美元对比。预计415.1亿美元，同比增长47%</li><li><b>服务收入：</b>182.8亿美元对比。预计176.4亿美元，同比增长25.6%</li><li><b>其他产品收入：</b>87.9亿美元对比。预计93.3亿美元，同比增长11.5%</li><li><b>Mac收入：</b>91.8亿美元对比。预计92.3亿美元，同比增长1.6%</li><li><b>iPad收入：</b>82.5亿美元对比。预计72.3亿美元，同比增长21.4%</li><li><b>毛利率：</b>42.2%vs.估计值42.0%</li></ul>iPhone销量同比增长47%，但仍低于华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple's results were mixed in a fiscal fourth quarter seen as a lull before the high-sales holiday end of year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第四财季的业绩好坏参半，被视为年底高销售假期之前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple said revenues and profits for the fiscal fourth quarter were $83.4 billion and $1.24 per share, compared with analyst estimates of $84.8 billion and $1.24 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，苹果表示，第四财季营收和利润分别为834亿美元和每股1.24美元，而分析师预期为848亿美元和每股1.24美元。</blockquote></p><p> The results were a rocky end to a fiscal year of above-expectations sales led by its iPhone 12 models and strong sales of Mac computers and iPads for working and learning from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这一结果为本财年的销售超出预期画上了一个艰难的句号，该财年由iPhone 12机型以及用于在家工作和学习的Mac电脑和iPad的强劲销售引领。</blockquote></p><p> Apple told investors in July that chip constraints would start to hit its iPhone and iPad lineups for the first time in the fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在7月份告诉投资者，芯片限制将在第四季度首次开始影响其iPhone和iPad产品线。</blockquote></p><p> Apple posted its results shortly after retailer Amazon.com&nbsp;forecast holiday-quarter sales well below Wall Street expectations, citing labor supply shortages and global supply chain issues in part.</p><p><blockquote>在零售商亚马逊预测假日季销售额远低于华尔街预期后不久，苹果公布了业绩，部分原因是劳动力供应短缺和全球供应链问题。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has \"managed to navigate the problems fairly well, but hasn’t escaped unscathed, and an extended duration of these problems will spell trouble, especially because the market is unforgiving when it comes to Apple’s performance,\" said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.</p><p><blockquote>索菲·伦德-耶茨(Sophie Lund-Yates)表示，苹果“相当好地解决了这些问题，但也未能毫发无损，这些问题持续时间的延长将带来麻烦，特别是因为市场对苹果的表现是无情的”。Hargreaves Lansdown的股票分析师。</blockquote></p><p> <b>MISSES</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未命中</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple missed expectations in two key categories.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在两个关键类别上未达到预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple said fourth-quarter iPhone sales were $38.9 billion, short of estimates of $41.5 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，苹果表示，第四季度iPhone销售额为389亿美元，低于预期的415亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cook said that chips made with older technology remain the key supply constraint. He said that Apple remains unsure whether the shortages will ease after the holiday shopping season.</p><p><blockquote>库克表示，采用旧技术制造的芯片仍然是关键的供应限制。他表示，苹果仍不确定假期购物季后短缺情况是否会缓解。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's very difficult to call,\" Cook said.</p><p><blockquote>“这对看涨期权来说非常困难，”Cook说。</blockquote></p><p> The company's accessories segment, which contains fast-growing categories like its AirPods wireless headphones, came in at $8.8 billion, half a billion dollars lower than analyst expectations of $9.3 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，该公司的配件部门包括AirPods无线耳机等快速增长的类别，收入为88亿美元，比分析师预期的93亿美元低5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other segments fared better. Sales for iPads and Macs were $8.3 billion and $9.2 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $7.2 billion and $9.2 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>其他细分市场表现较好。根据Refinitiv的数据，iPad和Mac的销售额分别为83亿美元和92亿美元，而分析师预计为72亿美元和92亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company's services segment - which contains its App Store business - had sales of $18.3 billion in revenue, up 26%, compared with analyst expectations of $17.6 billion. Cook said that Apple now has 745 million paid subscribers to its platform, up from the 700 million it disclosed a quarter ago.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的服务部门（包括App Store业务）销售额为183亿美元，增长26%，而分析师预期为176亿美元。Cook表示，苹果目前在其平台上拥有7.45亿付费用户，高于一个季度前披露的7亿。</blockquote></p><p> \"Services were strong, and it shows the beauty and durability of software and services, as there are better margins and no supply issues, since software doesn't arrive on a container ship,\" said Hal Eddins, chief economist at Apple shareholder Capital Investment Companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股东资本首席经济学家哈尔·埃丁斯(Hal Eddins)表示：“服务表现强劲，这显示了软件和服务的美观和耐用性，因为利润率更高，而且不存在供应问题，因为软件不会通过集装箱船到达。”投资公司。</blockquote></p><p> Another bright spot in the company's results were its sales in China, which were up 83% to $14.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司业绩的另一个亮点是在中国的销售额，增长了83%，达到146亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it returned $24 billion to shareholders during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，本季度向股东返还了240亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178207364","content_text":"Apple revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday, which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.\nApple fell 3.7% in extended trading.\n\n\"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southeast Asia.\"Cook said that the impact will be even worse during the current holiday sales quarter.\nHowever, Apple's overall revenue was still up 29% and each of its product categories grew on an annual basis.\nHere's how Apple did versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:\n\nEPS: $1.24 vs. $1.24 estimated\nRevenue: $83.36 billion  vs. $84.85 billion estimated, up 29% year-over-year\niPhone revenue: $38.87 billion vs. $41.51 billion estimated, up 47% year-over-year\nServices revenue: $18.28 billion vs. $17.64 billion estimated, up 25.6% year-over-year\nOther Products revenue: $8.79 billion vs. $9.33 billion estimated, up 11.5% year-over-year\nMac revenue: $9.18 billion vs. $9.23 billion estimated, up 1.6% year-over-year\niPad revenue: $8.25 billion vs. $7.23 billion estimated, up 21.4% year-over-year\nGross margin: 42.2% vs. 42.0% estimated\n\niPhone sales were up 47% year-over-year, but still came in under Wall Street estimates.\nApple's results were mixed in a fiscal fourth quarter seen as a lull before the high-sales holiday end of year.\nApple said revenues and profits for the fiscal fourth quarter were $83.4 billion and $1.24 per share, compared with analyst estimates of $84.8 billion and $1.24 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nThe results were a rocky end to a fiscal year of above-expectations sales led by its iPhone 12 models and strong sales of Mac computers and iPads for working and learning from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.\nApple told investors in July that chip constraints would start to hit its iPhone and iPad lineups for the first time in the fourth quarter.\nApple posted its results shortly after retailer Amazon.com forecast holiday-quarter sales well below Wall Street expectations, citing labor supply shortages and global supply chain issues in part.\nApple has \"managed to navigate the problems fairly well, but hasn’t escaped unscathed, and an extended duration of these problems will spell trouble, especially because the market is unforgiving when it comes to Apple’s performance,\" said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.\nMISSES\nApple missed expectations in two key categories.\nApple said fourth-quarter iPhone sales were $38.9 billion, short of estimates of $41.5 billion, according to Refinitiv data.\nCook said that chips made with older technology remain the key supply constraint. He said that Apple remains unsure whether the shortages will ease after the holiday shopping season.\n\"It's very difficult to call,\" Cook said.\nThe company's accessories segment, which contains fast-growing categories like its AirPods wireless headphones, came in at $8.8 billion, half a billion dollars lower than analyst expectations of $9.3 billion, according to Refinitiv data.\nOther segments fared better. Sales for iPads and Macs were $8.3 billion and $9.2 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $7.2 billion and $9.2 billion, according to Refinitiv data.\nThe company's services segment - which contains its App Store business - had sales of $18.3 billion in revenue, up 26%, compared with analyst expectations of $17.6 billion. Cook said that Apple now has 745 million paid subscribers to its platform, up from the 700 million it disclosed a quarter ago.\n\"Services were strong, and it shows the beauty and durability of software and services, as there are better margins and no supply issues, since software doesn't arrive on a container ship,\" said Hal Eddins, chief economist at Apple shareholder Capital Investment Companies.\nAnother bright spot in the company's results were its sales in China, which were up 83% to $14.6 billion.\nThe company said it returned $24 billion to shareholders during the quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164986312,"gmtCreate":1624165677136,"gmtModify":1631886600731,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572472215057712","idStr":"3572472215057712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164986312","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164062956,"gmtCreate":1624161865675,"gmtModify":1631886033272,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572472215057712","idStr":"3572472215057712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Surprising to find visa on this list. Would have thought PayPal to be a better buy compared to visa personally.&nbsp;","listText":"Surprising to find visa on this list. Would have thought PayPal to be a better buy compared to visa personally.&nbsp;","text":"Surprising to find visa on this list. Would have thought PayPal to be a better buy compared to visa personally.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164062956","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":874138396,"gmtCreate":1637740755043,"gmtModify":1637740892058,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572472215057712","idStr":"3572472215057712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.&nbsp;","listText":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.&nbsp;","text":"I doubt Apple can deliver those fantastic results in view of chips shortages.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874138396","repostId":"1158359024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158359024","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637714626,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158359024?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-24 08:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股价明年会上涨25%吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158359024","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?Apple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.That said, Tigress Financi","content":"<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价刚刚创下历史新高，但一位华尔街多头认为明年股价还可以再上涨25%。这是一个合理的预期吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在11月份创下历史新高。周一，我认为苹果已经成为主导和重塑其运营所在的消费科技市场的专家。部分出于这个原因，即使在160美元的历史峰值价格下，AAPL股票在我看来也值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Tigress Financial的Ivan Feinseth最近将股价目标定为近200美元，创下了近200美元的新高。按照这些水平，AAPL在未来12个月内将呈现约25%的上涨潜力。这是一个合理的预期吗？这个数字会不会太保守了？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What AAPL at $200 means</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 200美元意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> From a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently&nbsp;in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.</p><p><blockquote>从市盈率的角度来看，苹果明年的估值倍数需要扩大到32.8倍，该股才能在2022年此时上涨25%并达到每股200美元。作为参考，今天可比远期倍数仅为28.2倍。远期市盈率直到2020年8月下旬才攀升至30多岁，就在AAPL在第三季度末大幅调整之前。</blockquote></p><p> All the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of&nbsp;strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.</p><p><blockquote>当然，以上所有内容都假设2023年每股收益6.09美元的共识保持不变。如果苹果公司能够在未来几个季度取得超出共识的业绩，即使估值没有任何扩张，该公司的股价也可能升至200美元。例如，这可能是假日季度iPhone销售强劲的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What history says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> History does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>历史并不总是重复，但它往往押韵。从这个角度来看，考虑到AAPL目前正处于历史高位，苹果在12个月内上涨25%的可能性似乎更小。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven has explained&nbsp;that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家解释说，如果在大幅下跌期间购买苹果股票，投资其股票往往会在接下来的12个月内获得最高回报。平均而言，当该股从顶部下跌30%以上后买入时，一年的涨幅已接近50%。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.</p><p><blockquote>相反，如果投资者仅在2007年第一部iPhone推出以来的历史高点买入AAPL，并持有股票整整一年，他或她的平均回报率将“仅”为19%。然而，25%或更多的收益并不罕见，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efda4e69cc836339cb92cc143f3dbab\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL从峰值开始的一年涨幅分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为AAPL是一个很好的买入并持有股票，每股160美元。然而，从历史高点赚取25%并不是一件容易的事，尽管这种情况以前也发生过。</blockquote></p><p> I would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我不一定指望苹果股票在未来12个月左右产生极高的回报。这种情况从峰值价格开始发生的可能性很小，尤其是在股价仅在过去24个月内就上涨了140%之后。但考虑到强劲的商业基本面，更温和、仍跑赢市场的涨幅肯定不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股价明年会上涨25%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股价明年会上涨25%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-24 08:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价刚刚创下历史新高，但一位华尔街多头认为明年股价还可以再上涨25%。这是一个合理的预期吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在11月份创下历史新高。周一，我认为苹果已经成为主导和重塑其运营所在的消费科技市场的专家。部分出于这个原因，即使在160美元的历史峰值价格下，AAPL股票在我看来也值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Tigress Financial的Ivan Feinseth最近将股价目标定为近200美元，创下了近200美元的新高。按照这些水平，AAPL在未来12个月内将呈现约25%的上涨潜力。这是一个合理的预期吗？这个数字会不会太保守了？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What AAPL at $200 means</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 200美元意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> From a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently&nbsp;in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.</p><p><blockquote>从市盈率的角度来看，苹果明年的估值倍数需要扩大到32.8倍，该股才能在2022年此时上涨25%并达到每股200美元。作为参考，今天可比远期倍数仅为28.2倍。远期市盈率直到2020年8月下旬才攀升至30多岁，就在AAPL在第三季度末大幅调整之前。</blockquote></p><p> All the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of&nbsp;strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.</p><p><blockquote>当然，以上所有内容都假设2023年每股收益6.09美元的共识保持不变。如果苹果公司能够在未来几个季度取得超出共识的业绩，即使估值没有任何扩张，该公司的股价也可能升至200美元。例如，这可能是假日季度iPhone销售强劲的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What history says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> History does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>历史并不总是重复，但它往往押韵。从这个角度来看，考虑到AAPL目前正处于历史高位，苹果在12个月内上涨25%的可能性似乎更小。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven has explained&nbsp;that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家解释说，如果在大幅下跌期间购买苹果股票，投资其股票往往会在接下来的12个月内获得最高回报。平均而言，当该股从顶部下跌30%以上后买入时，一年的涨幅已接近50%。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.</p><p><blockquote>相反，如果投资者仅在2007年第一部iPhone推出以来的历史高点买入AAPL，并持有股票整整一年，他或她的平均回报率将“仅”为19%。然而，25%或更多的收益并不罕见，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efda4e69cc836339cb92cc143f3dbab\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL从峰值开始的一年涨幅分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为AAPL是一个很好的买入并持有股票，每股160美元。然而，从历史高点赚取25%并不是一件容易的事，尽管这种情况以前也发生过。</blockquote></p><p> I would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我不一定指望苹果股票在未来12个月左右产生极高的回报。这种情况从峰值价格开始发生的可能性很小，尤其是在股价仅在过去24个月内就上涨了140%之后。但考虑到强劲的商业基本面，更温和、仍跑赢市场的涨幅肯定不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158359024","content_text":"Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?\nApple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.\nFigure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.\nThat said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?\nWhat AAPL at $200 means\nFrom a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.\nAll the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.\nWhat history says\nHistory does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.\nThe Apple Maven has explained that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.\nInstead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.\nFigure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.\nI would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607486241,"gmtCreate":1639579181245,"gmtModify":1639579211529,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572472215057712","idStr":"3572472215057712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree&nbsp;","listText":"Agree&nbsp;","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607486241","repostId":"1153017502","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153017502","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639578803,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153017502?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 22:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,S&P 500 gains 0.1%<blockquote>美联储决策日美股开局乏善可陈标普500涨0.1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153017502","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%","content":"<p>U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%,S&amp;P 500 gains 0.1%; Dow trades flat but hanging around a gain of 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>美联储决策日美国股市开局乏善可陈，纳斯达克综合指数下跌不到0.1%，标普500上涨0.1%；道琼斯指数持平，但涨幅徘徊在0.1%左右。</blockquote></p><p> All eyes on Wednesday will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement and press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Many market participants expect these will set the stage for the Fed to speed the withdrawal of its crisis-era stimulus programs, with the firming economic recovery and soaring inflation suggesting the central bank has room for a more hawkish tilt to policy. Last week's Consumer Price Index showed thefastest surge in U.S. consumer prices since 1982on a year-over-year basis in November. And on Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index jumped by the most on record at a 9.6% year-over-year increase for last month.</p><p><blockquote>周三所有人的目光都将集中在美联储的货币政策声明和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会上。许多市场人士预计，这些将为美联储加快退出危机时期的刺激计划奠定基础，经济复苏企稳和通胀飙升表明美联储有空间在政策上更加鹰派。上周的消费者价格指数显示，11月份美国消费者价格同比涨幅为1982年以来最快。周二，美国生产者价格指数上个月同比上涨9.6%，创有记录以来最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, many investors anticipate the Fed will ramp up the rate of tapering of its asset-purchasing program, which took place at a rate of $120 billion per month in combined Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities from the start of the pandemic through November. Last month, the Fed began dialing back these purchases by $15 billion, and announced another $15 billion reduction for December.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，许多投资者预计美联储将加快资产购买计划的缩减速度，从疫情开始到11月，美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的缩减速度为每月1200亿美元。上个月，美联储开始将这些购买量减少150亿美元，并宣布12月份再减少150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"We don't think that the Fed is really going to have any surprises for the markets [Wednesday]. They're probably going to announce that they're going to ... accelerate tapering, and that they'll probably finish that by March. But we think that they're going to leave themselves lots flexibility around raising interest rates,\" Tracie McMillion, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global asset allocation strategy,told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.She added she expects just one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the second half of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为美联储（周三）不会真的给市场带来任何惊喜。他们可能会宣布他们将……加速缩减规模，而且他们可能会在三月份之前完成缩减规模。但我们认为他们将在加息方面给自己留下很大的灵活性，”富国银行投资研究所全球资产配置策略主管Tracie McMillion周二对雅虎财经直播表示。她补充说，预计美联储明年下半年只会加息一次。</blockquote></p><p> Other pundits, however, expect an earlier liftoff on interest rates, which maybe be reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) updated Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其他专家预计利率将提前上升，这可能会反映在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）周三更新的经济预测摘要中。</blockquote></p><p> \"The announcement of faster tapering after today's FOMC meeting is a done deal; we'd be astonished by anything other than a plan to complete asset purchases by the end of March at the latest,\" wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note on Tuesday. He expects the Fed to stick to its prior plan of purchasing $90 billion in its asset-purchase program this month, before doubling the rate of tapering from its current $15 billion per month starting in January.</p><p><blockquote>万神殿宏观经济公司(Pantheon Macroeconomics)首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)写道：“今天的FOMC会议后宣布加快缩减规模已成定局；除了最迟在3月底之前完成资产购买的计划之外，我们会对任何事情感到惊讶。”在周二的一份说明中。他预计，美联储将坚持其先前的计划，即本月在资产购买计划中购买900亿美元，然后从1月份开始将缩减速度从目前的每月150亿美元增加一倍。</blockquote></p><p> \"That would mean purchases drop to $60 billion in January, $30 billion in February, and zero in March, leaving the door open to a rate hike that month if the inflation outlook has not improved, via a clear and sustained increase in the labor force participation rate,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“这将意味着1月份的购买量降至600亿美元，2月份降至300亿美元，3月份降至零，如果通胀前景没有改善，那么当月加息的大门就敞开了，劳动力参与率，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> A number of strategists noted the trading activity in recent sessions and weeks has reflected the market pricing of a more hawkish Fed. Software and other growth names were some of the biggest laggards in the major indexes during Tuesday's session.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师指出，最近几个交易日和几周的交易活动反映了市场对美联储更加鹰派的定价。周二交易中，软件和其他成长型股票是主要股指中表现最差的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> \"When you have an anticipation of higher interest rates, growth stocks or long-duration growth stocks certainly get hit the hardest,\" Art Hogan, national chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. \"When you do that net present value calculation with a higher interest rate, that implied multiple or ascribed multiple to growth names comes in. So a lot of that's been priced in. When you think about some of those real growth-y names and momentum names and risk assets, they've seen a lot of carnage.\"</p><p><blockquote>全国首席市场策略师阿特·霍根周二对雅虎财经直播表示：“当你预期利率上升时，成长型股票或长期成长型股票肯定会受到最严重的打击。”“当你用较高的利率进行净现值计算时，成长型公司的隐含倍数或归属倍数就会出现。所以很多都已经被定价了。当你想到一些真正的成长型公司和动量型公司时名字和风险资产，他们已经看到了很多屠杀。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What the market is trying to tell us here is that when you set your asset allocation plan for next year, you want to have a barbell approach with growth on one side — you want to have those growth names that are actually valued at a multiple to earnings, not a multiple to revenues or a multiple to cash flows or a multiple to sales,\" he added. \"We anticipate 2022 is going to be very much like 2021, where you really want to have a balance between growth and value.\"</p><p><blockquote>“市场在这里试图告诉我们的是，当你制定明年的资产配置计划时，你希望采取杠铃法，一方面是增长——你希望那些实际估值为收益倍数的增长名称，而不是收入的倍数、现金流的倍数或销售额的倍数，”他补充道。“我们预计2022年将与2021年非常相似，您确实希望在增长和价值之间取得平衡。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,S&P 500 gains 0.1%<blockquote>美联储决策日美股开局乏善可陈标普500涨0.1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,S&P 500 gains 0.1%<blockquote>美联储决策日美股开局乏善可陈标普500涨0.1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-15 22:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%,S&amp;P 500 gains 0.1%; Dow trades flat but hanging around a gain of 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>美联储决策日美国股市开局乏善可陈，纳斯达克综合指数下跌不到0.1%，标普500上涨0.1%；道琼斯指数持平，但涨幅徘徊在0.1%左右。</blockquote></p><p> All eyes on Wednesday will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement and press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Many market participants expect these will set the stage for the Fed to speed the withdrawal of its crisis-era stimulus programs, with the firming economic recovery and soaring inflation suggesting the central bank has room for a more hawkish tilt to policy. Last week's Consumer Price Index showed thefastest surge in U.S. consumer prices since 1982on a year-over-year basis in November. And on Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index jumped by the most on record at a 9.6% year-over-year increase for last month.</p><p><blockquote>周三所有人的目光都将集中在美联储的货币政策声明和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会上。许多市场人士预计，这些将为美联储加快退出危机时期的刺激计划奠定基础，经济复苏企稳和通胀飙升表明美联储有空间在政策上更加鹰派。上周的消费者价格指数显示，11月份美国消费者价格同比涨幅为1982年以来最快。周二，美国生产者价格指数上个月同比上涨9.6%，创有记录以来最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, many investors anticipate the Fed will ramp up the rate of tapering of its asset-purchasing program, which took place at a rate of $120 billion per month in combined Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities from the start of the pandemic through November. Last month, the Fed began dialing back these purchases by $15 billion, and announced another $15 billion reduction for December.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，许多投资者预计美联储将加快资产购买计划的缩减速度，从疫情开始到11月，美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的缩减速度为每月1200亿美元。上个月，美联储开始将这些购买量减少150亿美元，并宣布12月份再减少150亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"We don't think that the Fed is really going to have any surprises for the markets [Wednesday]. They're probably going to announce that they're going to ... accelerate tapering, and that they'll probably finish that by March. But we think that they're going to leave themselves lots flexibility around raising interest rates,\" Tracie McMillion, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global asset allocation strategy,told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.She added she expects just one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the second half of next year.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为美联储（周三）不会真的给市场带来任何惊喜。他们可能会宣布他们将……加速缩减规模，而且他们可能会在三月份之前完成缩减规模。但我们认为他们将在加息方面给自己留下很大的灵活性，”富国银行投资研究所全球资产配置策略主管Tracie McMillion周二对雅虎财经直播表示。她补充说，预计美联储明年下半年只会加息一次。</blockquote></p><p> Other pundits, however, expect an earlier liftoff on interest rates, which maybe be reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) updated Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其他专家预计利率将提前上升，这可能会反映在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）周三更新的经济预测摘要中。</blockquote></p><p> \"The announcement of faster tapering after today's FOMC meeting is a done deal; we'd be astonished by anything other than a plan to complete asset purchases by the end of March at the latest,\" wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note on Tuesday. He expects the Fed to stick to its prior plan of purchasing $90 billion in its asset-purchase program this month, before doubling the rate of tapering from its current $15 billion per month starting in January.</p><p><blockquote>万神殿宏观经济公司(Pantheon Macroeconomics)首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)写道：“今天的FOMC会议后宣布加快缩减规模已成定局；除了最迟在3月底之前完成资产购买的计划之外，我们会对任何事情感到惊讶。”在周二的一份说明中。他预计，美联储将坚持其先前的计划，即本月在资产购买计划中购买900亿美元，然后从1月份开始将缩减速度从目前的每月150亿美元增加一倍。</blockquote></p><p> \"That would mean purchases drop to $60 billion in January, $30 billion in February, and zero in March, leaving the door open to a rate hike that month if the inflation outlook has not improved, via a clear and sustained increase in the labor force participation rate,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“这将意味着1月份的购买量降至600亿美元，2月份降至300亿美元，3月份降至零，如果通胀前景没有改善，那么当月加息的大门就敞开了，劳动力参与率，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> A number of strategists noted the trading activity in recent sessions and weeks has reflected the market pricing of a more hawkish Fed. Software and other growth names were some of the biggest laggards in the major indexes during Tuesday's session.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师指出，最近几个交易日和几周的交易活动反映了市场对美联储更加鹰派的定价。周二交易中，软件和其他成长型股票是主要股指中表现最差的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> \"When you have an anticipation of higher interest rates, growth stocks or long-duration growth stocks certainly get hit the hardest,\" Art Hogan, national chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. \"When you do that net present value calculation with a higher interest rate, that implied multiple or ascribed multiple to growth names comes in. So a lot of that's been priced in. When you think about some of those real growth-y names and momentum names and risk assets, they've seen a lot of carnage.\"</p><p><blockquote>全国首席市场策略师阿特·霍根周二对雅虎财经直播表示：“当你预期利率上升时，成长型股票或长期成长型股票肯定会受到最严重的打击。”“当你用较高的利率进行净现值计算时，成长型公司的隐含倍数或归属倍数就会出现。所以很多都已经被定价了。当你想到一些真正的成长型公司和动量型公司时名字和风险资产，他们已经看到了很多屠杀。”</blockquote></p><p> \"What the market is trying to tell us here is that when you set your asset allocation plan for next year, you want to have a barbell approach with growth on one side — you want to have those growth names that are actually valued at a multiple to earnings, not a multiple to revenues or a multiple to cash flows or a multiple to sales,\" he added. \"We anticipate 2022 is going to be very much like 2021, where you really want to have a balance between growth and value.\"</p><p><blockquote>“市场在这里试图告诉我们的是，当你制定明年的资产配置计划时，你希望采取杠铃法，一方面是增长——你希望那些实际估值为收益倍数的增长名称，而不是收入的倍数、现金流的倍数或销售额的倍数，”他补充道。“我们预计2022年将与2021年非常相似，您确实希望在增长和价值之间取得平衡。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153017502","content_text":"U.S. stock market kicks off lackluster start on Fed decision day,Nasdaq Composite off less than 0.1%,S&P 500 gains 0.1%; Dow trades flat but hanging around a gain of 0.1%.\nAll eyes on Wednesday will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement and press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Many market participants expect these will set the stage for the Fed to speed the withdrawal of its crisis-era stimulus programs, with the firming economic recovery and soaring inflation suggesting the central bank has room for a more hawkish tilt to policy. Last week's Consumer Price Index showed thefastest surge in U.S. consumer prices since 1982on a year-over-year basis in November. And on Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index jumped by the most on record at a 9.6% year-over-year increase for last month.\nSpecifically, many investors anticipate the Fed will ramp up the rate of tapering of its asset-purchasing program, which took place at a rate of $120 billion per month in combined Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities from the start of the pandemic through November. Last month, the Fed began dialing back these purchases by $15 billion, and announced another $15 billion reduction for December.\n\"We don't think that the Fed is really going to have any surprises for the markets [Wednesday]. They're probably going to announce that they're going to ... accelerate tapering, and that they'll probably finish that by March. But we think that they're going to leave themselves lots flexibility around raising interest rates,\" Tracie McMillion, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global asset allocation strategy,told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.She added she expects just one interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the second half of next year.\nOther pundits, however, expect an earlier liftoff on interest rates, which maybe be reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) updated Summary of Economic Projections on Wednesday.\n\"The announcement of faster tapering after today's FOMC meeting is a done deal; we'd be astonished by anything other than a plan to complete asset purchases by the end of March at the latest,\" wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note on Tuesday. He expects the Fed to stick to its prior plan of purchasing $90 billion in its asset-purchase program this month, before doubling the rate of tapering from its current $15 billion per month starting in January.\n\"That would mean purchases drop to $60 billion in January, $30 billion in February, and zero in March, leaving the door open to a rate hike that month if the inflation outlook has not improved, via a clear and sustained increase in the labor force participation rate,\" he added.\nA number of strategists noted the trading activity in recent sessions and weeks has reflected the market pricing of a more hawkish Fed. Software and other growth names were some of the biggest laggards in the major indexes during Tuesday's session.\n\"When you have an anticipation of higher interest rates, growth stocks or long-duration growth stocks certainly get hit the hardest,\" Art Hogan, national chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. \"When you do that net present value calculation with a higher interest rate, that implied multiple or ascribed multiple to growth names comes in. So a lot of that's been priced in. When you think about some of those real growth-y names and momentum names and risk assets, they've seen a lot of carnage.\"\n\"What the market is trying to tell us here is that when you set your asset allocation plan for next year, you want to have a barbell approach with growth on one side — you want to have those growth names that are actually valued at a multiple to earnings, not a multiple to revenues or a multiple to cash flows or a multiple to sales,\" he added. \"We anticipate 2022 is going to be very much like 2021, where you really want to have a balance between growth and value.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854223037,"gmtCreate":1635463947889,"gmtModify":1635463947969,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572472215057712","idStr":"3572472215057712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.&nbsp;","listText":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.&nbsp;","text":"I think it’s a pretty good sets of results despite the shortages.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854223037","repostId":"1178207364","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178207364","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635460531,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178207364?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-29 06:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple sales miss expectations, supply issues cost company $6 billion<blockquote>苹果销量未达预期，供应问题导致公司损失60亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178207364","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday, which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.\"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southe","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday,&nbsp;which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints&nbsp;on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.</p><p><blockquote>周四，苹果第四财季营收不及华尔街预期，苹果CEO Tim Cook将此归因于iPhone、iPad和Mac的供应限制超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple fell 3.7% in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果盘后交易中下跌3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3b61df2acaab5e8ff56c1872221c60\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> \"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southeast Asia.\"Cook said that the impact will be even worse during the current holiday sales quarter.</p><p><blockquote>库克表示：“尽管供应限制超出预期，我们估计供应限制约为60亿美元，但我们的表现非常强劲。”“供应限制是由备受关注的全行业芯片短缺以及东南亚与新冠疫情相关的制造业中断造成的。”库克表示，在当前的假日销售季度，影响将更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> However, Apple's overall revenue was still up 29%&nbsp;and each of its product categories grew on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果的整体收入仍增长了29%，其每个产品类别均同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Here's how Apple did versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果与Refinitiv共识估计的表现：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>EPS:</b>&nbsp;$1.24 vs. $1.24&nbsp;estimated</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>&nbsp;$83.36&nbsp;billion&nbsp;&nbsp;vs.&nbsp;$84.85&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 29% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>iPhone revenue:</b>&nbsp;$38.87&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $41.51&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 47% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Services revenue:</b>&nbsp;$18.28&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $17.64&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated,&nbsp;up 25.6% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Other Products revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.79&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.33&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 11.5% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Mac revenue:</b>&nbsp;$9.18&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 1.6% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>iPad revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.25&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $7.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 21.4% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Gross margin:</b>&nbsp;42.2% vs. 42.0% estimated</li> </ul> iPhone sales were up 47% year-over-year, but still came in under Wall Street estimates.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>EPS：</b>1.24美元与预估1.24美元</li><li><b>收入：</b>833.6亿美元，预期848.5亿美元，同比增长29%</li><li><b>iPhone收入：</b>388.7亿美元对比。预计415.1亿美元，同比增长47%</li><li><b>服务收入：</b>182.8亿美元对比。预计176.4亿美元，同比增长25.6%</li><li><b>其他产品收入：</b>87.9亿美元对比。预计93.3亿美元，同比增长11.5%</li><li><b>Mac收入：</b>91.8亿美元对比。预计92.3亿美元，同比增长1.6%</li><li><b>iPad收入：</b>82.5亿美元对比。预计72.3亿美元，同比增长21.4%</li><li><b>毛利率：</b>42.2%vs.估计值42.0%</li></ul>iPhone销量同比增长47%，但仍低于华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple's results were mixed in a fiscal fourth quarter seen as a lull before the high-sales holiday end of year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第四财季的业绩好坏参半，被视为年底高销售假期之前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple said revenues and profits for the fiscal fourth quarter were $83.4 billion and $1.24 per share, compared with analyst estimates of $84.8 billion and $1.24 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，苹果表示，第四财季营收和利润分别为834亿美元和每股1.24美元，而分析师预期为848亿美元和每股1.24美元。</blockquote></p><p> The results were a rocky end to a fiscal year of above-expectations sales led by its iPhone 12 models and strong sales of Mac computers and iPads for working and learning from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这一结果为本财年的销售超出预期画上了一个艰难的句号，该财年由iPhone 12机型以及用于在家工作和学习的Mac电脑和iPad的强劲销售引领。</blockquote></p><p> Apple told investors in July that chip constraints would start to hit its iPhone and iPad lineups for the first time in the fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在7月份告诉投资者，芯片限制将在第四季度首次开始影响其iPhone和iPad产品线。</blockquote></p><p> Apple posted its results shortly after retailer Amazon.com&nbsp;forecast holiday-quarter sales well below Wall Street expectations, citing labor supply shortages and global supply chain issues in part.</p><p><blockquote>在零售商亚马逊预测假日季销售额远低于华尔街预期后不久，苹果公布了业绩，部分原因是劳动力供应短缺和全球供应链问题。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has \"managed to navigate the problems fairly well, but hasn’t escaped unscathed, and an extended duration of these problems will spell trouble, especially because the market is unforgiving when it comes to Apple’s performance,\" said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.</p><p><blockquote>索菲·伦德-耶茨(Sophie Lund-Yates)表示，苹果“相当好地解决了这些问题，但也未能毫发无损，这些问题持续时间的延长将带来麻烦，特别是因为市场对苹果的表现是无情的”。Hargreaves Lansdown的股票分析师。</blockquote></p><p> <b>MISSES</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未命中</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple missed expectations in two key categories.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在两个关键类别上未达到预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple said fourth-quarter iPhone sales were $38.9 billion, short of estimates of $41.5 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，苹果表示，第四季度iPhone销售额为389亿美元，低于预期的415亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cook said that chips made with older technology remain the key supply constraint. He said that Apple remains unsure whether the shortages will ease after the holiday shopping season.</p><p><blockquote>库克表示，采用旧技术制造的芯片仍然是关键的供应限制。他表示，苹果仍不确定假期购物季后短缺情况是否会缓解。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's very difficult to call,\" Cook said.</p><p><blockquote>“这对看涨期权来说非常困难，”Cook说。</blockquote></p><p> The company's accessories segment, which contains fast-growing categories like its AirPods wireless headphones, came in at $8.8 billion, half a billion dollars lower than analyst expectations of $9.3 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，该公司的配件部门包括AirPods无线耳机等快速增长的类别，收入为88亿美元，比分析师预期的93亿美元低5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other segments fared better. Sales for iPads and Macs were $8.3 billion and $9.2 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $7.2 billion and $9.2 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>其他细分市场表现较好。根据Refinitiv的数据，iPad和Mac的销售额分别为83亿美元和92亿美元，而分析师预计为72亿美元和92亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company's services segment - which contains its App Store business - had sales of $18.3 billion in revenue, up 26%, compared with analyst expectations of $17.6 billion. Cook said that Apple now has 745 million paid subscribers to its platform, up from the 700 million it disclosed a quarter ago.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的服务部门（包括App Store业务）销售额为183亿美元，增长26%，而分析师预期为176亿美元。Cook表示，苹果目前在其平台上拥有7.45亿付费用户，高于一个季度前披露的7亿。</blockquote></p><p> \"Services were strong, and it shows the beauty and durability of software and services, as there are better margins and no supply issues, since software doesn't arrive on a container ship,\" said Hal Eddins, chief economist at Apple shareholder Capital Investment Companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股东资本首席经济学家哈尔·埃丁斯(Hal Eddins)表示：“服务表现强劲，这显示了软件和服务的美观和耐用性，因为利润率更高，而且不存在供应问题，因为软件不会通过集装箱船到达。”投资公司。</blockquote></p><p> Another bright spot in the company's results were its sales in China, which were up 83% to $14.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司业绩的另一个亮点是在中国的销售额，增长了83%，达到146亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it returned $24 billion to shareholders during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，本季度向股东返还了240亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple sales miss expectations, supply issues cost company $6 billion<blockquote>苹果销量未达预期，供应问题导致公司损失60亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple sales miss expectations, supply issues cost company $6 billion<blockquote>苹果销量未达预期，供应问题导致公司损失60亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-29 06:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday,&nbsp;which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints&nbsp;on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.</p><p><blockquote>周四，苹果第四财季营收不及华尔街预期，苹果CEO Tim Cook将此归因于iPhone、iPad和Mac的供应限制超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple fell 3.7% in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果盘后交易中下跌3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3b61df2acaab5e8ff56c1872221c60\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> \"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southeast Asia.\"Cook said that the impact will be even worse during the current holiday sales quarter.</p><p><blockquote>库克表示：“尽管供应限制超出预期，我们估计供应限制约为60亿美元，但我们的表现非常强劲。”“供应限制是由备受关注的全行业芯片短缺以及东南亚与新冠疫情相关的制造业中断造成的。”库克表示，在当前的假日销售季度，影响将更加严重。</blockquote></p><p> However, Apple's overall revenue was still up 29%&nbsp;and each of its product categories grew on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果的整体收入仍增长了29%，其每个产品类别均同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Here's how Apple did versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果与Refinitiv共识估计的表现：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>EPS:</b>&nbsp;$1.24 vs. $1.24&nbsp;estimated</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>&nbsp;$83.36&nbsp;billion&nbsp;&nbsp;vs.&nbsp;$84.85&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 29% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>iPhone revenue:</b>&nbsp;$38.87&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $41.51&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 47% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Services revenue:</b>&nbsp;$18.28&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $17.64&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated,&nbsp;up 25.6% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Other Products revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.79&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.33&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 11.5% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Mac revenue:</b>&nbsp;$9.18&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $9.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 1.6% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>iPad revenue:</b>&nbsp;$8.25&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $7.23&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 21.4% year-over-year</li>  <li><b>Gross margin:</b>&nbsp;42.2% vs. 42.0% estimated</li> </ul> iPhone sales were up 47% year-over-year, but still came in under Wall Street estimates.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>EPS：</b>1.24美元与预估1.24美元</li><li><b>收入：</b>833.6亿美元，预期848.5亿美元，同比增长29%</li><li><b>iPhone收入：</b>388.7亿美元对比。预计415.1亿美元，同比增长47%</li><li><b>服务收入：</b>182.8亿美元对比。预计176.4亿美元，同比增长25.6%</li><li><b>其他产品收入：</b>87.9亿美元对比。预计93.3亿美元，同比增长11.5%</li><li><b>Mac收入：</b>91.8亿美元对比。预计92.3亿美元，同比增长1.6%</li><li><b>iPad收入：</b>82.5亿美元对比。预计72.3亿美元，同比增长21.4%</li><li><b>毛利率：</b>42.2%vs.估计值42.0%</li></ul>iPhone销量同比增长47%，但仍低于华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple's results were mixed in a fiscal fourth quarter seen as a lull before the high-sales holiday end of year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第四财季的业绩好坏参半，被视为年底高销售假期之前的平静期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple said revenues and profits for the fiscal fourth quarter were $83.4 billion and $1.24 per share, compared with analyst estimates of $84.8 billion and $1.24 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，苹果表示，第四财季营收和利润分别为834亿美元和每股1.24美元，而分析师预期为848亿美元和每股1.24美元。</blockquote></p><p> The results were a rocky end to a fiscal year of above-expectations sales led by its iPhone 12 models and strong sales of Mac computers and iPads for working and learning from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这一结果为本财年的销售超出预期画上了一个艰难的句号，该财年由iPhone 12机型以及用于在家工作和学习的Mac电脑和iPad的强劲销售引领。</blockquote></p><p> Apple told investors in July that chip constraints would start to hit its iPhone and iPad lineups for the first time in the fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在7月份告诉投资者，芯片限制将在第四季度首次开始影响其iPhone和iPad产品线。</blockquote></p><p> Apple posted its results shortly after retailer Amazon.com&nbsp;forecast holiday-quarter sales well below Wall Street expectations, citing labor supply shortages and global supply chain issues in part.</p><p><blockquote>在零售商亚马逊预测假日季销售额远低于华尔街预期后不久，苹果公布了业绩，部分原因是劳动力供应短缺和全球供应链问题。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has \"managed to navigate the problems fairly well, but hasn’t escaped unscathed, and an extended duration of these problems will spell trouble, especially because the market is unforgiving when it comes to Apple’s performance,\" said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.</p><p><blockquote>索菲·伦德-耶茨(Sophie Lund-Yates)表示，苹果“相当好地解决了这些问题，但也未能毫发无损，这些问题持续时间的延长将带来麻烦，特别是因为市场对苹果的表现是无情的”。Hargreaves Lansdown的股票分析师。</blockquote></p><p> <b>MISSES</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未命中</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple missed expectations in two key categories.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在两个关键类别上未达到预期。</blockquote></p><p> Apple said fourth-quarter iPhone sales were $38.9 billion, short of estimates of $41.5 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，苹果表示，第四季度iPhone销售额为389亿美元，低于预期的415亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cook said that chips made with older technology remain the key supply constraint. He said that Apple remains unsure whether the shortages will ease after the holiday shopping season.</p><p><blockquote>库克表示，采用旧技术制造的芯片仍然是关键的供应限制。他表示，苹果仍不确定假期购物季后短缺情况是否会缓解。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's very difficult to call,\" Cook said.</p><p><blockquote>“这对看涨期权来说非常困难，”Cook说。</blockquote></p><p> The company's accessories segment, which contains fast-growing categories like its AirPods wireless headphones, came in at $8.8 billion, half a billion dollars lower than analyst expectations of $9.3 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，该公司的配件部门包括AirPods无线耳机等快速增长的类别，收入为88亿美元，比分析师预期的93亿美元低5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other segments fared better. Sales for iPads and Macs were $8.3 billion and $9.2 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $7.2 billion and $9.2 billion, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>其他细分市场表现较好。根据Refinitiv的数据，iPad和Mac的销售额分别为83亿美元和92亿美元，而分析师预计为72亿美元和92亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company's services segment - which contains its App Store business - had sales of $18.3 billion in revenue, up 26%, compared with analyst expectations of $17.6 billion. Cook said that Apple now has 745 million paid subscribers to its platform, up from the 700 million it disclosed a quarter ago.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的服务部门（包括App Store业务）销售额为183亿美元，增长26%，而分析师预期为176亿美元。Cook表示，苹果目前在其平台上拥有7.45亿付费用户，高于一个季度前披露的7亿。</blockquote></p><p> \"Services were strong, and it shows the beauty and durability of software and services, as there are better margins and no supply issues, since software doesn't arrive on a container ship,\" said Hal Eddins, chief economist at Apple shareholder Capital Investment Companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股东资本首席经济学家哈尔·埃丁斯(Hal Eddins)表示：“服务表现强劲，这显示了软件和服务的美观和耐用性，因为利润率更高，而且不存在供应问题，因为软件不会通过集装箱船到达。”投资公司。</blockquote></p><p> Another bright spot in the company's results were its sales in China, which were up 83% to $14.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该公司业绩的另一个亮点是在中国的销售额，增长了83%，达到146亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company said it returned $24 billion to shareholders during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，本季度向股东返还了240亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178207364","content_text":"Apple revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations in its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday, which Apple CEO Tim Cook attributed to larger-than-expected supply constraints on iPhones, iPads, and Macs.\nApple fell 3.7% in extended trading.\n\n\"We had a very strong performance despite larger than expected supply constraints, which we estimate to be around $6 billion,\" Cook said. \"The supply constraints were driven by the industry wide chip shortages that have been talked about a lot, and COVID-related manufacturing disruptions in Southeast Asia.\"Cook said that the impact will be even worse during the current holiday sales quarter.\nHowever, Apple's overall revenue was still up 29% and each of its product categories grew on an annual basis.\nHere's how Apple did versus Refinitiv consensus estimates:\n\nEPS: $1.24 vs. $1.24 estimated\nRevenue: $83.36 billion  vs. $84.85 billion estimated, up 29% year-over-year\niPhone revenue: $38.87 billion vs. $41.51 billion estimated, up 47% year-over-year\nServices revenue: $18.28 billion vs. $17.64 billion estimated, up 25.6% year-over-year\nOther Products revenue: $8.79 billion vs. $9.33 billion estimated, up 11.5% year-over-year\nMac revenue: $9.18 billion vs. $9.23 billion estimated, up 1.6% year-over-year\niPad revenue: $8.25 billion vs. $7.23 billion estimated, up 21.4% year-over-year\nGross margin: 42.2% vs. 42.0% estimated\n\niPhone sales were up 47% year-over-year, but still came in under Wall Street estimates.\nApple's results were mixed in a fiscal fourth quarter seen as a lull before the high-sales holiday end of year.\nApple said revenues and profits for the fiscal fourth quarter were $83.4 billion and $1.24 per share, compared with analyst estimates of $84.8 billion and $1.24 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nThe results were a rocky end to a fiscal year of above-expectations sales led by its iPhone 12 models and strong sales of Mac computers and iPads for working and learning from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.\nApple told investors in July that chip constraints would start to hit its iPhone and iPad lineups for the first time in the fourth quarter.\nApple posted its results shortly after retailer Amazon.com forecast holiday-quarter sales well below Wall Street expectations, citing labor supply shortages and global supply chain issues in part.\nApple has \"managed to navigate the problems fairly well, but hasn’t escaped unscathed, and an extended duration of these problems will spell trouble, especially because the market is unforgiving when it comes to Apple’s performance,\" said Sophie Lund-Yates, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.\nMISSES\nApple missed expectations in two key categories.\nApple said fourth-quarter iPhone sales were $38.9 billion, short of estimates of $41.5 billion, according to Refinitiv data.\nCook said that chips made with older technology remain the key supply constraint. He said that Apple remains unsure whether the shortages will ease after the holiday shopping season.\n\"It's very difficult to call,\" Cook said.\nThe company's accessories segment, which contains fast-growing categories like its AirPods wireless headphones, came in at $8.8 billion, half a billion dollars lower than analyst expectations of $9.3 billion, according to Refinitiv data.\nOther segments fared better. Sales for iPads and Macs were $8.3 billion and $9.2 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $7.2 billion and $9.2 billion, according to Refinitiv data.\nThe company's services segment - which contains its App Store business - had sales of $18.3 billion in revenue, up 26%, compared with analyst expectations of $17.6 billion. Cook said that Apple now has 745 million paid subscribers to its platform, up from the 700 million it disclosed a quarter ago.\n\"Services were strong, and it shows the beauty and durability of software and services, as there are better margins and no supply issues, since software doesn't arrive on a container ship,\" said Hal Eddins, chief economist at Apple shareholder Capital Investment Companies.\nAnother bright spot in the company's results were its sales in China, which were up 83% to $14.6 billion.\nThe company said it returned $24 billion to shareholders during the quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164986312,"gmtCreate":1624165677136,"gmtModify":1631886600731,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572472215057712","idStr":"3572472215057712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164986312","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164062956,"gmtCreate":1624161865675,"gmtModify":1631886033272,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572472215057712","idStr":"3572472215057712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Surprising to find visa on this list. Would have thought PayPal to be a better buy compared to visa personally.&nbsp;","listText":"Surprising to find visa on this list. Would have thought PayPal to be a better buy compared to visa personally.&nbsp;","text":"Surprising to find visa on this list. Would have thought PayPal to be a better buy compared to visa personally.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164062956","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":607870979,"gmtCreate":1639528627062,"gmtModify":1639528627062,"author":{"id":"3572472215057712","authorId":"3572472215057712","name":"Tiga168Go","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc996103a384f9387f1232d243f3fa2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572472215057712","idStr":"3572472215057712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607870979","repostId":"1101216534","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101216534","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639525158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101216534?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal<blockquote>PayPal控股：逢低买入会让你付钱</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101216534","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.</li>  <li>The company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares egregiously over-priced.</li>  <li>I believe that PayPal's FCF calculation is not a fair representation with transaction and credit losses being added to the company's cashflow.</li>  <li>Advancement in financial technology will begin to reduce the benefit of PayPal's value proposition.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与同行相比，PayPal控股公司2021年的投资资本回报率较弱。</li><li>该公司目前的市盈率是GAAP预期市盈率的53倍，这使得股价被严重高估。</li><li>我认为PayPal的自由现金流计算并不公平，交易和信用损失被添加到公司的现金流中。</li><li>金融技术的进步将开始降低PayPal价值主张的好处。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal Holdings (PYPL), the household online payment firm with around 416 million active merchant accounts is currently gaining investors attention after sliding 30% over the last 6 months. The stock is extremely popular amongst American investors as approximately 245 hedge funds have it in their top 10 holdings. That being said, despite the large institutions and Wall Street's optimism around the stock, I fail to see what the majority of analysts see in PayPal. To begin with, despite the company's stock sliding 30% over the last 6 months, PayPal is still trading at a GAAP forward Price-to-earnings multiple of 53. Secondly, the company has had poor performance when looking at their return on invested capital. Thirdly, PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are inaccurate to the actual volume of cash the company is bringing in. Lastly, PayPal's business model appears to be fizzling out as India's FinTech expansion has shown that a transaction middleman is becoming increasingly redundant.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股(PYPL)是一家拥有约4.16亿活跃商户账户的家庭在线支付公司，在过去6个月下滑30%后，目前正受到投资者的关注。该股在美国投资者中非常受欢迎，大约有245家对冲基金将其列入前十大持股。话虽如此，尽管大型机构和华尔街对该股持乐观态度，但我看不到大多数分析师对PayPal的看法。首先，尽管该公司股价在过去6个月内下跌了30%，但PayPal的GAAP预期市盈率仍为53倍。其次，从投资资本回报率来看，该公司的业绩不佳。第三，在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算与公司带来的实际现金量不准确。最后，随着印度金融科技的扩张表明交易中间人变得越来越多余，PayPal的商业模式似乎正在失败。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal's Underperformance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal表现不佳</b></blockquote></p><p> In order for me to come to the conclusion that PayPal has under-performed this year, I had compared the returns on invested capital of PayPal versus peers Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA). The return on invested capital is a key metric measuring how well management is at deploying their capital profitably. The following are the three companies current ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>为了让我得出PayPal今年表现不佳的结论，我将PayPal的投资资本回报率与同行Visa Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：V）和万事达卡Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：MA）进行了比较。投资资本回报率是衡量管理层如何利用资本盈利的关键指标。以下是三家公司目前的ROIC。</blockquote></p><p> PYPL return on invested capital</p><p><blockquote>PYPL投资资本回报率</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> One of the main reasons why Visa and Mastercard has and will continue to outperform PayPal in returns on invested capital is because their business models are much less risky. Visa and Mastercard are just payment processors who pass on any additional risks to retailers and banks, whereas PayPal has to endure the risk of a merchant either defaulting or not making a payment. That additional risk PayPal is forced to endure leads to transaction and credit losses which hurts their profitability. This ultimately gives PayPal's competitors a competitive advantage when looking through the lens of an investor.</p><p><blockquote>Visa和Mastercard在投资资本回报率方面已经并将继续优于PayPal的主要原因之一是因为它们的商业模式风险要小得多。Visa和Mastercard只是将任何额外风险转嫁给零售商和银行的支付处理商，而PayPal则必须承受商家违约或不付款的风险。PayPal被迫承受的额外风险会导致交易和信用损失，从而损害其盈利能力。从投资者的角度来看，这最终使PayPal的竞争对手获得了竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Transaction And Credit Losses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易及信贷亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> From my perspective, the method in which is used to calculate PayPal's cashflows comes with some misrepresentations. The big problem with PayPal's FCF calculation is that they are able to add back all of their transaction and credit losses back onto their cashflow statement. This made up around 30% of PayPal's operating cashflow in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，用于计算PayPal现金流的方法存在一些虚假陈述。PayPal自由现金流计算的一个大问题是，他们能够将所有交易和信用损失加回现金流量表中。这约占PayPal 2020年运营现金流的30%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, these transaction and credit losses have been making up a solid chunk of PayPal's annual free cashflow. These transaction and credit losses are simple to explain. PayPal provides loans to individuals with bad credit, and should they write off those bad loans (which they're in fact doing a lot of), the losses are added back on PayPal's cashflow statement. I am of the opinion that investors should be aware of the risks involved in this and be vigilant when accounting it in your analysis. PayPal even acknowledges the risk of these bad loans in their 10-k form.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些交易和信用损失一直占PayPal年度自由现金流的很大一部分。这些交易和信用损失很容易解释。PayPal向信用不良的个人提供贷款，如果他们注销这些不良贷款（事实上他们做了很多），损失就会重新添加到PayPal的现金流量表中。我认为，投资者应该意识到其中涉及的风险，并在分析中考虑它时保持警惕。PayPal甚至在10-k表格中承认了这些不良贷款的风险。</blockquote></p><p> For this reason, the large amount of transaction and credit losses being added back onto PayPal's cashflow statement represent additional risk and also leads me to believe that their cashflow calculation is slightly misrepresented.</p><p><blockquote>因此，PayPal现金流量表中添加的大量交易和信用损失代表了额外的风险，也让我相信他们的现金流计算略有歪曲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> In order to compute the intrinsic value of PayPal stock, I will provide a discount cashflow model. The following is a forecast of some key data points needed to compute the calculation (all figures in millions USD).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算PayPal股票的内在价值，我将提供一个贴现现金流模型。以下是计算计算所需的一些关键数据点的预测（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> For this calculation, I will be subtracting PayPal's transaction and credit losses as I've earlier stated that they overstate the company's cashflow. Additionally, I used 3 year moving averages to forecast D&amp;A and CapEx costs. Lastly, I chose a discount rate of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The following is my discount cashflow model.</p><p><blockquote>在此计算中，我将减去PayPal的交易和信用损失，因为我之前曾表示，它们夸大了公司的现金流。此外，我使用3年移动平均线来预测D&amp;A和资本支出成本。最后，我选择了8%的贴现率和3%的永久增长率。以下是我的贴现现金流模型。</blockquote></p><p> My final consensus after computing my DCF model is that PayPal's intrinsic value is 77% lower than where shares are currently trading. This makes PayPal shares egregiously overvalued. Furthermore, looking deeper at PayPal's valuation using a comparable cost analysis, you can once again see by comparing the company's EV/EBITDA ratio to Visa and Mastercard, how overpriced PayPal shares are currently when compared to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>在计算DCF模型后，我的最终共识是，PayPal的内在价值比当前股票交易价格低77%。这使得PayPal股价被严重高估。此外，使用可比成本分析更深入地了解PayPal的估值，通过将该公司的EV/EBITDA比率与Visa和Mastercard进行比较，您可以再次看到PayPal股票目前与同行相比的定价有多高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I thought it would be important to add that PayPal's 1 year EPS growth rate is only about 4%, which compared to peers Visa and Mastercard is worse. Additionally, despite PayPal having a higher EV/EBITDA than both Mastercard and Visa, the company's YoY quarterly EPS growth has been lower and has shown a massive slowdown. Moreover, I don't expect PayPal's growth to pick up in the future as the industry moves away from their value proposition. The following is a chart representing quarterly YoY growth of the three companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为需要补充的是，PayPal的1年每股收益增长率仅为4%左右，与同行Visa和Mastercard相比较差。此外，尽管PayPal的EV/EBITDA高于万事达卡和Visa，但该公司的季度每股收益同比增长较低，并且大幅放缓。此外，随着该行业偏离他们的价值主张，我预计PayPal的增长未来不会回升。下图显示了三家公司的季度同比增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, PayPal's EV-to-EBITDA is higher, despite lower EPS growth then their two largest rivals. To conclude on PayPal's valuation, PayPal has the price of a growth stock however, the company's growth rate and growth catalyst closer resembles a retirement value stock. This further amplifies my conviction that in my opinion PayPal shares are overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，尽管每股收益增长低于两个最大竞争对手，但PayPal的电动汽车与EBITDA之比更高。总结PayPal的估值，PayPal拥有成长型股票的价格，然而，该公司的增长率和增长催化剂更类似于退休价值股票。这进一步强化了我的信念，即我认为PayPal股票被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FinTech Evolution Is Leaving PayPal Behind</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技的发展正在将PayPal抛在后面</b></blockquote></p><p> When PayPal originally released its initial concept and value proposition, it took the world by storm as their business model was nothing others had seen before. That being said, the greatest risk PayPal faces in the future is that its clock may be ticking as banks and other new FinTech solutions change the market to where we just have bank-to-bank transactions, leaving less need for a middleman such as PayPal. You're already beginning to see this in countries such as China and now India. India specifically is set to have bank-to-bank digital payments increase rapidly over the next couple of years. The following is the forecasted dollar amount of digital payments in India in trillions of rupees.</p><p><blockquote>当PayPal最初发布其最初的概念和价值主张时，它风靡了世界，因为他们的商业模式是其他人从未见过的。话虽如此，PayPal未来面临的最大风险是，随着银行和其他新的金融科技解决方案将市场改变为只有银行对银行交易的市场，从而减少对PayPal等中间商的需求，它的时间可能正在流逝。你已经开始在中国和现在的印度等国家看到这一点。特别是印度，银行间的数字支付将在未来几年迅速增长。以下是印度数字支付的预测金额，单位为万亿卢比。</blockquote></p><p> Between China and India's adoption of FinTech and digital payments, the countries are setting the stage as to where the payment market will be headed in the next couple of years. Unfortunately for PayPal, that seems to be a world without a middleman between a merchant and a bank. Mastercard and Visa don't carry this risk because both companies just process payments, leaving them to be much better alternative investments.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和印度对金融科技和数字支付的采用，这两个国家正在为未来几年支付市场的走向奠定基础。不幸的是，对于PayPal来说，这似乎是一个商人和银行之间没有中间人的世界。万事达卡和维萨卡不承担这种风险，因为两家公司都只处理付款，使它们成为更好的另类投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why I Could Be Wrong And Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么我可能是错的和最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> To conclude my bearish PayPal thesis, I would like to say that if PayPal is able to pull together a couple of decent quarters, then in the short-term I could be wrong about the stock price as Wall Street's fondness for the company could push the valuation a little bit higher. That being said, I have to say that longer-term this is definitely a position I would want to avoid. PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are questionable, the company is currently egregiously overpriced with little growth, and its business model could begin to be fazed out down the line. For these reasons, I believe that PayPal is poised to fall by an additional 30-40% over the next 1-2 years. As much as investors want to talk about the past performance for this company, past performance does not equate to future performance. Therefore, I have to say that if you decide to purchase some PayPal shares, I think you will certainly pay pal.</p><p><blockquote>在结束我看跌PayPal的论点时，我想说的是，如果PayPal能够在几个季度取得不错的业绩，那么短期内我对股价的看法可能是错误的，因为华尔街对该公司的喜爱可能会推动估值高一点。话虽如此，我不得不说，从长远来看，这绝对是我想要避免的职位。在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算值得怀疑，该公司目前的定价过高，几乎没有增长，而且其商业模式可能会开始受到影响。出于这些原因，我认为PayPal在未来1-2年内将再下跌30-40%。尽管投资者很想谈论这家公司过去的业绩，但过去的业绩并不等同于未来的业绩。因此，我不得不说，如果你决定购买一些PayPal股票，我想你肯定会付钱给pal。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal<blockquote>PayPal控股：逢低买入会让你付钱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal<blockquote>PayPal控股：逢低买入会让你付钱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 07:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.</li>  <li>The company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares egregiously over-priced.</li>  <li>I believe that PayPal's FCF calculation is not a fair representation with transaction and credit losses being added to the company's cashflow.</li>  <li>Advancement in financial technology will begin to reduce the benefit of PayPal's value proposition.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与同行相比，PayPal控股公司2021年的投资资本回报率较弱。</li><li>该公司目前的市盈率是GAAP预期市盈率的53倍，这使得股价被严重高估。</li><li>我认为PayPal的自由现金流计算并不公平，交易和信用损失被添加到公司的现金流中。</li><li>金融技术的进步将开始降低PayPal价值主张的好处。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal Holdings (PYPL), the household online payment firm with around 416 million active merchant accounts is currently gaining investors attention after sliding 30% over the last 6 months. The stock is extremely popular amongst American investors as approximately 245 hedge funds have it in their top 10 holdings. That being said, despite the large institutions and Wall Street's optimism around the stock, I fail to see what the majority of analysts see in PayPal. To begin with, despite the company's stock sliding 30% over the last 6 months, PayPal is still trading at a GAAP forward Price-to-earnings multiple of 53. Secondly, the company has had poor performance when looking at their return on invested capital. Thirdly, PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are inaccurate to the actual volume of cash the company is bringing in. Lastly, PayPal's business model appears to be fizzling out as India's FinTech expansion has shown that a transaction middleman is becoming increasingly redundant.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股(PYPL)是一家拥有约4.16亿活跃商户账户的家庭在线支付公司，在过去6个月下滑30%后，目前正受到投资者的关注。该股在美国投资者中非常受欢迎，大约有245家对冲基金将其列入前十大持股。话虽如此，尽管大型机构和华尔街对该股持乐观态度，但我看不到大多数分析师对PayPal的看法。首先，尽管该公司股价在过去6个月内下跌了30%，但PayPal的GAAP预期市盈率仍为53倍。其次，从投资资本回报率来看，该公司的业绩不佳。第三，在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算与公司带来的实际现金量不准确。最后，随着印度金融科技的扩张表明交易中间人变得越来越多余，PayPal的商业模式似乎正在失败。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal's Underperformance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal表现不佳</b></blockquote></p><p> In order for me to come to the conclusion that PayPal has under-performed this year, I had compared the returns on invested capital of PayPal versus peers Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA). The return on invested capital is a key metric measuring how well management is at deploying their capital profitably. The following are the three companies current ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>为了让我得出PayPal今年表现不佳的结论，我将PayPal的投资资本回报率与同行Visa Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：V）和万事达卡Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：MA）进行了比较。投资资本回报率是衡量管理层如何利用资本盈利的关键指标。以下是三家公司目前的ROIC。</blockquote></p><p> PYPL return on invested capital</p><p><blockquote>PYPL投资资本回报率</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> One of the main reasons why Visa and Mastercard has and will continue to outperform PayPal in returns on invested capital is because their business models are much less risky. Visa and Mastercard are just payment processors who pass on any additional risks to retailers and banks, whereas PayPal has to endure the risk of a merchant either defaulting or not making a payment. That additional risk PayPal is forced to endure leads to transaction and credit losses which hurts their profitability. This ultimately gives PayPal's competitors a competitive advantage when looking through the lens of an investor.</p><p><blockquote>Visa和Mastercard在投资资本回报率方面已经并将继续优于PayPal的主要原因之一是因为它们的商业模式风险要小得多。Visa和Mastercard只是将任何额外风险转嫁给零售商和银行的支付处理商，而PayPal则必须承受商家违约或不付款的风险。PayPal被迫承受的额外风险会导致交易和信用损失，从而损害其盈利能力。从投资者的角度来看，这最终使PayPal的竞争对手获得了竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Transaction And Credit Losses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易及信贷亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> From my perspective, the method in which is used to calculate PayPal's cashflows comes with some misrepresentations. The big problem with PayPal's FCF calculation is that they are able to add back all of their transaction and credit losses back onto their cashflow statement. This made up around 30% of PayPal's operating cashflow in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，用于计算PayPal现金流的方法存在一些虚假陈述。PayPal自由现金流计算的一个大问题是，他们能够将所有交易和信用损失加回现金流量表中。这约占PayPal 2020年运营现金流的30%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, these transaction and credit losses have been making up a solid chunk of PayPal's annual free cashflow. These transaction and credit losses are simple to explain. PayPal provides loans to individuals with bad credit, and should they write off those bad loans (which they're in fact doing a lot of), the losses are added back on PayPal's cashflow statement. I am of the opinion that investors should be aware of the risks involved in this and be vigilant when accounting it in your analysis. PayPal even acknowledges the risk of these bad loans in their 10-k form.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些交易和信用损失一直占PayPal年度自由现金流的很大一部分。这些交易和信用损失很容易解释。PayPal向信用不良的个人提供贷款，如果他们注销这些不良贷款（事实上他们做了很多），损失就会重新添加到PayPal的现金流量表中。我认为，投资者应该意识到其中涉及的风险，并在分析中考虑它时保持警惕。PayPal甚至在10-k表格中承认了这些不良贷款的风险。</blockquote></p><p> For this reason, the large amount of transaction and credit losses being added back onto PayPal's cashflow statement represent additional risk and also leads me to believe that their cashflow calculation is slightly misrepresented.</p><p><blockquote>因此，PayPal现金流量表中添加的大量交易和信用损失代表了额外的风险，也让我相信他们的现金流计算略有歪曲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> In order to compute the intrinsic value of PayPal stock, I will provide a discount cashflow model. The following is a forecast of some key data points needed to compute the calculation (all figures in millions USD).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算PayPal股票的内在价值，我将提供一个贴现现金流模型。以下是计算计算所需的一些关键数据点的预测（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> For this calculation, I will be subtracting PayPal's transaction and credit losses as I've earlier stated that they overstate the company's cashflow. Additionally, I used 3 year moving averages to forecast D&amp;A and CapEx costs. Lastly, I chose a discount rate of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The following is my discount cashflow model.</p><p><blockquote>在此计算中，我将减去PayPal的交易和信用损失，因为我之前曾表示，它们夸大了公司的现金流。此外，我使用3年移动平均线来预测D&amp;A和资本支出成本。最后，我选择了8%的贴现率和3%的永久增长率。以下是我的贴现现金流模型。</blockquote></p><p> My final consensus after computing my DCF model is that PayPal's intrinsic value is 77% lower than where shares are currently trading. This makes PayPal shares egregiously overvalued. Furthermore, looking deeper at PayPal's valuation using a comparable cost analysis, you can once again see by comparing the company's EV/EBITDA ratio to Visa and Mastercard, how overpriced PayPal shares are currently when compared to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>在计算DCF模型后，我的最终共识是，PayPal的内在价值比当前股票交易价格低77%。这使得PayPal股价被严重高估。此外，使用可比成本分析更深入地了解PayPal的估值，通过将该公司的EV/EBITDA比率与Visa和Mastercard进行比较，您可以再次看到PayPal股票目前与同行相比的定价有多高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I thought it would be important to add that PayPal's 1 year EPS growth rate is only about 4%, which compared to peers Visa and Mastercard is worse. Additionally, despite PayPal having a higher EV/EBITDA than both Mastercard and Visa, the company's YoY quarterly EPS growth has been lower and has shown a massive slowdown. Moreover, I don't expect PayPal's growth to pick up in the future as the industry moves away from their value proposition. The following is a chart representing quarterly YoY growth of the three companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为需要补充的是，PayPal的1年每股收益增长率仅为4%左右，与同行Visa和Mastercard相比较差。此外，尽管PayPal的EV/EBITDA高于万事达卡和Visa，但该公司的季度每股收益同比增长较低，并且大幅放缓。此外，随着该行业偏离他们的价值主张，我预计PayPal的增长未来不会回升。下图显示了三家公司的季度同比增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, PayPal's EV-to-EBITDA is higher, despite lower EPS growth then their two largest rivals. To conclude on PayPal's valuation, PayPal has the price of a growth stock however, the company's growth rate and growth catalyst closer resembles a retirement value stock. This further amplifies my conviction that in my opinion PayPal shares are overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，尽管每股收益增长低于两个最大竞争对手，但PayPal的电动汽车与EBITDA之比更高。总结PayPal的估值，PayPal拥有成长型股票的价格，然而，该公司的增长率和增长催化剂更类似于退休价值股票。这进一步强化了我的信念，即我认为PayPal股票被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FinTech Evolution Is Leaving PayPal Behind</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技的发展正在将PayPal抛在后面</b></blockquote></p><p> When PayPal originally released its initial concept and value proposition, it took the world by storm as their business model was nothing others had seen before. That being said, the greatest risk PayPal faces in the future is that its clock may be ticking as banks and other new FinTech solutions change the market to where we just have bank-to-bank transactions, leaving less need for a middleman such as PayPal. You're already beginning to see this in countries such as China and now India. India specifically is set to have bank-to-bank digital payments increase rapidly over the next couple of years. The following is the forecasted dollar amount of digital payments in India in trillions of rupees.</p><p><blockquote>当PayPal最初发布其最初的概念和价值主张时，它风靡了世界，因为他们的商业模式是其他人从未见过的。话虽如此，PayPal未来面临的最大风险是，随着银行和其他新的金融科技解决方案将市场改变为只有银行对银行交易的市场，从而减少对PayPal等中间商的需求，它的时间可能正在流逝。你已经开始在中国和现在的印度等国家看到这一点。特别是印度，银行间的数字支付将在未来几年迅速增长。以下是印度数字支付的预测金额，单位为万亿卢比。</blockquote></p><p> Between China and India's adoption of FinTech and digital payments, the countries are setting the stage as to where the payment market will be headed in the next couple of years. Unfortunately for PayPal, that seems to be a world without a middleman between a merchant and a bank. Mastercard and Visa don't carry this risk because both companies just process payments, leaving them to be much better alternative investments.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和印度对金融科技和数字支付的采用，这两个国家正在为未来几年支付市场的走向奠定基础。不幸的是，对于PayPal来说，这似乎是一个商人和银行之间没有中间人的世界。万事达卡和维萨卡不承担这种风险，因为两家公司都只处理付款，使它们成为更好的另类投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why I Could Be Wrong And Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么我可能是错的和最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> To conclude my bearish PayPal thesis, I would like to say that if PayPal is able to pull together a couple of decent quarters, then in the short-term I could be wrong about the stock price as Wall Street's fondness for the company could push the valuation a little bit higher. That being said, I have to say that longer-term this is definitely a position I would want to avoid. PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are questionable, the company is currently egregiously overpriced with little growth, and its business model could begin to be fazed out down the line. For these reasons, I believe that PayPal is poised to fall by an additional 30-40% over the next 1-2 years. As much as investors want to talk about the past performance for this company, past performance does not equate to future performance. Therefore, I have to say that if you decide to purchase some PayPal shares, I think you will certainly pay pal.</p><p><blockquote>在结束我看跌PayPal的论点时，我想说的是，如果PayPal能够在几个季度取得不错的业绩，那么短期内我对股价的看法可能是错误的，因为华尔街对该公司的喜爱可能会推动估值高一点。话虽如此，我不得不说，从长远来看，这绝对是我想要避免的职位。在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算值得怀疑，该公司目前的定价过高，几乎没有增长，而且其商业模式可能会开始受到影响。出于这些原因，我认为PayPal在未来1-2年内将再下跌30-40%。尽管投资者很想谈论这家公司过去的业绩，但过去的业绩并不等同于未来的业绩。因此，我不得不说，如果你决定购买一些PayPal股票，我想你肯定会付钱给pal。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475141-paypal-holdings-buying-dip-unattractive\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475141-paypal-holdings-buying-dip-unattractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101216534","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.\nThe company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares egregiously over-priced.\nI believe that PayPal's FCF calculation is not a fair representation with transaction and credit losses being added to the company's cashflow.\nAdvancement in financial technology will begin to reduce the benefit of PayPal's value proposition.\n\n\n\nInvestment Thesis\nPayPal Holdings (PYPL), the household online payment firm with around 416 million active merchant accounts is currently gaining investors attention after sliding 30% over the last 6 months. The stock is extremely popular amongst American investors as approximately 245 hedge funds have it in their top 10 holdings. That being said, despite the large institutions and Wall Street's optimism around the stock, I fail to see what the majority of analysts see in PayPal. To begin with, despite the company's stock sliding 30% over the last 6 months, PayPal is still trading at a GAAP forward Price-to-earnings multiple of 53. Secondly, the company has had poor performance when looking at their return on invested capital. Thirdly, PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are inaccurate to the actual volume of cash the company is bringing in. Lastly, PayPal's business model appears to be fizzling out as India's FinTech expansion has shown that a transaction middleman is becoming increasingly redundant.\n\nPayPal's Underperformance\nIn order for me to come to the conclusion that PayPal has under-performed this year, I had compared the returns on invested capital of PayPal versus peers Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA). The return on invested capital is a key metric measuring how well management is at deploying their capital profitably. The following are the three companies current ROIC.\n\nPYPL return on invested capital\nData by YCharts\nOne of the main reasons why Visa and Mastercard has and will continue to outperform PayPal in returns on invested capital is because their business models are much less risky. Visa and Mastercard are just payment processors who pass on any additional risks to retailers and banks, whereas PayPal has to endure the risk of a merchant either defaulting or not making a payment. That additional risk PayPal is forced to endure leads to transaction and credit losses which hurts their profitability. This ultimately gives PayPal's competitors a competitive advantage when looking through the lens of an investor.\n\nTransaction And Credit Losses\nFrom my perspective, the method in which is used to calculate PayPal's cashflows comes with some misrepresentations. The big problem with PayPal's FCF calculation is that they are able to add back all of their transaction and credit losses back onto their cashflow statement. This made up around 30% of PayPal's operating cashflow in 2020.\n\nAs you can see, these transaction and credit losses have been making up a solid chunk of PayPal's annual free cashflow. These transaction and credit losses are simple to explain. PayPal provides loans to individuals with bad credit, and should they write off those bad loans (which they're in fact doing a lot of), the losses are added back on PayPal's cashflow statement. I am of the opinion that investors should be aware of the risks involved in this and be vigilant when accounting it in your analysis. PayPal even acknowledges the risk of these bad loans in their 10-k form.\n\nFor this reason, the large amount of transaction and credit losses being added back onto PayPal's cashflow statement represent additional risk and also leads me to believe that their cashflow calculation is slightly misrepresented.\n\nValuation\nIn order to compute the intrinsic value of PayPal stock, I will provide a discount cashflow model. The following is a forecast of some key data points needed to compute the calculation (all figures in millions USD).\n\nFor this calculation, I will be subtracting PayPal's transaction and credit losses as I've earlier stated that they overstate the company's cashflow. Additionally, I used 3 year moving averages to forecast D&A and CapEx costs. Lastly, I chose a discount rate of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The following is my discount cashflow model.\nMy final consensus after computing my DCF model is that PayPal's intrinsic value is 77% lower than where shares are currently trading. This makes PayPal shares egregiously overvalued. Furthermore, looking deeper at PayPal's valuation using a comparable cost analysis, you can once again see by comparing the company's EV/EBITDA ratio to Visa and Mastercard, how overpriced PayPal shares are currently when compared to its peers.\n\nI thought it would be important to add that PayPal's 1 year EPS growth rate is only about 4%, which compared to peers Visa and Mastercard is worse. Additionally, despite PayPal having a higher EV/EBITDA than both Mastercard and Visa, the company's YoY quarterly EPS growth has been lower and has shown a massive slowdown. Moreover, I don't expect PayPal's growth to pick up in the future as the industry moves away from their value proposition. The following is a chart representing quarterly YoY growth of the three companies.\n\nAs you can see, PayPal's EV-to-EBITDA is higher, despite lower EPS growth then their two largest rivals. To conclude on PayPal's valuation, PayPal has the price of a growth stock however, the company's growth rate and growth catalyst closer resembles a retirement value stock. This further amplifies my conviction that in my opinion PayPal shares are overvalued.\n\nFinTech Evolution Is Leaving PayPal Behind\nWhen PayPal originally released its initial concept and value proposition, it took the world by storm as their business model was nothing others had seen before. That being said, the greatest risk PayPal faces in the future is that its clock may be ticking as banks and other new FinTech solutions change the market to where we just have bank-to-bank transactions, leaving less need for a middleman such as PayPal. You're already beginning to see this in countries such as China and now India. India specifically is set to have bank-to-bank digital payments increase rapidly over the next couple of years. The following is the forecasted dollar amount of digital payments in India in trillions of rupees.\n\nBetween China and India's adoption of FinTech and digital payments, the countries are setting the stage as to where the payment market will be headed in the next couple of years. Unfortunately for PayPal, that seems to be a world without a middleman between a merchant and a bank. Mastercard and Visa don't carry this risk because both companies just process payments, leaving them to be much better alternative investments.\n\n\nWhy I Could Be Wrong And Final Thoughts\nTo conclude my bearish PayPal thesis, I would like to say that if PayPal is able to pull together a couple of decent quarters, then in the short-term I could be wrong about the stock price as Wall Street's fondness for the company could push the valuation a little bit higher. That being said, I have to say that longer-term this is definitely a position I would want to avoid. PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are questionable, the company is currently egregiously overpriced with little growth, and its business model could begin to be fazed out down the line. For these reasons, I believe that PayPal is poised to fall by an additional 30-40% over the next 1-2 years. As much as investors want to talk about the past performance for this company, past performance does not equate to future performance. Therefore, I have to say that if you decide to purchase some PayPal shares, I think you will certainly pay pal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}