7b7349c2的个人主页 - 老虎社区

7b7349c2

hii

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2021-11-20

$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$[Sweats]

2021-11-12

$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$thanks for the money i am moving away from the stock

2021-11-11

$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$tomorrow burst???

2021-11-10

$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$ earnings after hours, stock move up by 50% tomorrow

2021-11-05

$Zillow(Z)$only after monster gains

2021-11-05

//@不是凯老师:在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后，市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读：有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务，预示着房价的反转，可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手，Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利，反而更加看好这个业务。而本文认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI，又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。

Zillow暴雷——一个资本被韭菜们收割的故事

2021-11-05

$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$only after monster gains

2021-11-04

$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 180 SHARES @ $36.99 LETS GO!

2021-10-22

omg hahah

@SlowNana:$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$When greed caught u... lessons learnt

2021-08-24

the heck u talking why would u compare likethat my fellow Palantirian

@摩根财团首席执行官:$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$这个就是缩小版fubo…涨的比fubo一般低20%，跌量差不多。

2021-08-06

hi

The S&P 500 Can Rise Another 6% This Year, Goldman Sachs Says. Why It’s So Upbeat.<blockquote>高盛表示，标普500今年可能再上涨6%。为什么这么乐观。</blockquote>

2021-08-04

cuteee

@Qian6:Go back to $20 please

2021-08-04

iooo

Why An S&P 500 Buyback Boom Could Be Just Around The Corner<blockquote>为什么标普500回购热潮即将来临</blockquote>

2021-07-13

LOL when u don’t understand what Palantir does and just post an article with a paper brain but anyways cheers when palantir goes up, this article will age well

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-03

yy

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-28

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$haha

2021-04-20

wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-20

yep

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-19

hi

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-19

hi

Stocks To Watch: Apple Event, Disney Callout And Earnings Blitz<blockquote>值得关注的股票：苹果活动、迪士尼预告和盈利闪电战</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>[Sweats]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>[Sweats]&nbsp;","text":"$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$[Sweats]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc6ad333345e21f7e39efbfc0d848b0a","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876429263","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879355543,"gmtCreate":1636684380337,"gmtModify":1636684380526,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a>thanks for the money i am moving away from the stock","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a>thanks for the money i am moving away from the stock","text":"$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$thanks for the money i am moving away from the stock","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401a2e253ae43e2abbc34bc1f7ff7429","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879355543","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870191245,"gmtCreate":1636591730079,"gmtModify":1636591730182,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a>tomorrow burst???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a>tomorrow burst???","text":"$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$tomorrow burst???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba8e4ee715f956a389cd613b3cf6896","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870191245","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870036057,"gmtCreate":1636557440809,"gmtModify":1636557635455,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a> earnings after hours, stock move up by 50% tomorrow","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a> earnings after hours, stock move up by 50% tomorrow","text":"$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$ earnings after hours, stock move up by 50% tomorrow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870036057","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846823446,"gmtCreate":1636073991965,"gmtModify":1636073992168,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">$Zillow(Z)$</a>only after monster gains","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">$Zillow(Z)$</a>only after monster gains","text":"$Zillow(Z)$only after monster gains","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef8170891a1512c6760fe05eab675dd","width":"408","height":"2079"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846823446","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846829730,"gmtCreate":1636073969684,"gmtModify":1636073969844,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3436022285116501\">@不是凯老师</a>:在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后，市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读：有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务，预示着房价的反转，可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手，Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利，反而更加看好这个业务。而本文认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI，又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3436022285116501\">@不是凯老师</a>:在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后，市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读：有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务，预示着房价的反转，可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手，Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利，反而更加看好这个业务。而本文认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI，又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。","text":"//@不是凯老师:在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后，市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读：有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务，预示着房价的反转，可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手，Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利，反而更加看好这个业务。而本文认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI，又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846829730","repostId":"2180737766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2180737766","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1636006714,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2180737766?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Zillow暴雷——一个资本被韭菜们收割的故事","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2180737766","media":"智通财经网","summary":"让Zillow股价一年翻了10倍的iBuyer模式，一夜之间跌落神坛。","content":"<p>美国最著名的地产高科技公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>暴雷了!</p>\n<p>11月2日，Zillow宣布退出之前被华尔街广泛看好的 “炒房” 业务(iBuyer)，当日内Zillow股价暴跌超过10%，然后11月3日开盘再次下跌17.5%。</p>\n<p>而就在短短几个月前，Zillow股价最高到达过$208，现在仅剩下$70！受到Zillow影响，同样做iBuyer业务的Opendoor，股价也大幅跳水，一日之内下跌了15%。</p>\n<p>曾经被认为是互联网地产行业的暴富神话，让Zillow股价一年翻了10倍的iBuyer模式，一夜之间跌落神坛。</p>\n<p>要了解这个巨星是如何陨落的，就让我来给大家讲一个“资本反被韭菜们收割”的故事吧。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/919ec4a816f7d12f22d183a1acdbbde5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>一、信箱中的手写黄纸条</b></p>\n<p>不知道从何时开始，在美国和加拿大的很多地方，人们会在信箱或门缝里收到一张黄色的手写小纸条。</p>\n<p>纸条的大概意思就是，我是一个在这个小区购买房屋的投资人，我看中了你的房子，我愿意支付给你现金买你的房子，而且可以很短的时间内就closing，感兴趣请拨打电话XXX-XXX-XXXX。</p>\n<p>纸条上也经常会写上，把房子卖给投资人的好处：</p>\n<p>1、不通过经纪，不需要支付任何经纪费用</p>\n<p>2、不需要维修房子，sold “as is”</p>\n<p>3、没有open house，不用showing</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0747b38fd4da9d03b208fb216ff230\" tg-width=\"718\" tg-height=\"930\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是很快就有主流媒体开始报道这个现象，并且警告屋主们要小心，因为这很可能是一个“骗局“。</p>\n<p>媒体经过调查发现，这些所谓的“投资人”，往往只报给卖家大约市场价的70%-80%甚至更低的价格。</p>\n<p>这些“投资人”一般会选择那些比较老的社区，比如在多伦多那些midtown的老城区。因为那里有很多单身的老人，他们平时不会很关心房价，并不了解市场的具体情况，而且很多老人也为了省心，想到不用维修就可以卖房子，于是就以非常低的价格把房子卖给了这些“投资人“。</p>\n<p>而这些”投资人“买到房子后，给房子稍作装修，迅速以高于买入价20%-30%甚至更高的价格把房子卖出!</p>\n<p>很多老人在看到房子重新卖掉的价格后，才大呼上当，但是也于事无补了。</p>\n<p>简单说，要想靠这种方法赚钱，主要是两个途径：</p>\n<p>1、 尽量低于市场价，利用信息不对称，从不了解市场的买家手里低价买入房子</p>\n<p>2、 希望市场价格能够高速增长，这样能够以更高的价格卖出</p>\n<p><b>二、iBuyer模式的起源</b></p>\n<p>互联网房地产业，在2014年开启了一种全新的赚钱模式——iBuyer!</p>\n<p>创始人Eric Wu是个深谙互联网金融玩法的人。他曾经创立过另外一家地产数据公司Movity，并且成功卖给了Zillow的竞争对手Trulia，获得了第一桶金。</p>\n<p>他很可能受到了黄色小纸条的启发，决心把黄色小纸条带到华尔街。当然他深知把黄色小纸条直接带到华尔街，逼格显然是不够的。</p>\n<p>所以一顿操作猛如虎，把各种互联网概念加到了这个传统的“炒房”模式上，并且把“i“加到”buying“或者”buyer“前面，立刻变得<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上起来。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00a03c976a5a3f9b6801da0ad29346f7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>然而归根到底，他们要说服买家不通过传统渠道卖房子，就要列出他们的优势。总结下来就是：</p>\n<p>1、不通过经纪，不需要支付任何经纪费用(但是他们会收一笔8%-20%的service fee)</p>\n<p>2、不需要维修房子，sold “as is” (但是iBuyer公司会收一笔之后他们维修的费用从卖家那里)</p>\n<p>3、没有open house，不用showing</p>\n<p>这几条怎么感觉看着这么眼熟?</p>\n<p><b>三、Zillow入局，iBuyer行业迎来春天</b></p>\n<p>虽然Opendoor在2014年就创立，但是一直也经营的不温不火。毕竟这个模式从赚钱逻辑上有很严重的缺陷：</p>\n<p>1、 相对于传统房地产买卖，iBuyer模式无形中增加了一次交易(需要转手两次)，因此大大增加了交易的成本。</p>\n<p>在美国，一般来说一次房地产交易的成本，即使不考虑经纪费用，仍然有房价2%-3%的交易成本。那么这个成本是谁来承担?最终吃亏的还是终端的买家和卖家。</p>\n<p>2、 黄色小纸条模式之所以能赚钱，是因为利用了信息不对称，可是互联网企业往往给客户提供大量的数据来吸引流量，所以严重的信息不对称是不存在的，iBuyer公司也就很难找到愿意低价卖房的人。</p>\n<p>3、 互联网公司要获得高估值，就需要快速扩张。而上面一条已经说了，因为互联网公司的特性，本来找到“傻子“的难度已经很大了，现在还需要找到“大量的傻子“。于是就出现“骗子太多，傻子明显不够用了”的窘境!</p>\n<p>幸运的是，上面也分析过，黄色小纸条模式有两个赚钱途径，既然第一个找“傻子”的途径走不下去，那还可以靠“市场价格高速增长”这个途径。</p>\n<p>下图是过去20多年美国房价在调整过通胀后的走势(Case-Shiller Home Price Index)：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c841800c9dc7cce8792e029459c5349\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>可以看到，自从2014年iBuyer模式创立开始，美国的房价就一直在高速上涨。</p>\n<p>这就满足了黄色小纸条模式赚钱的第二条途径。于是急于通过提高营收来抬高股价的Zillow，就将目光投向了iBuyer市场，在2018年强势入局，开启了自己的iBuyer业务——Zillow Offers。</p>\n<p>Zillow也不是空手而来，凭借其多年来积累强大的AI定价技术，直接把行业带上了新高度!</p>\n<p>有趣的是，Zillow入局的最大受益者，莫过于其竞争对手Opendoor了。</p>\n<p>借着Zillow的强大人气，Opendoor于2018年成功融资4亿美金，又在2019年再融3亿，公司估值直接上升到38亿美金，并最终于2020年末成功上市。</p>\n<p><b>四、猎人成为猎物，资本反被韭菜们割了</b></p>\n<p>在Zillow入局iBuyer业务的同时，公司的创始人Rich Barton也重新回到CEO的位置，带领公司全力拓展iBuyer业务。</p>\n<p>他们给自己制定了一个激进的目标，要在2024年实现每个月购买5000套美国的物业，并且大量扩招员工。</p>\n<p>这样的扩张，使Zillow的“营业额“大幅增加：在暴雷前的第三季度，Zillow的营业额同比增长超过500%。</p>\n<p>这种增长，导致公司的股价快速飙升，从2020年初到2021年初的，公司的股价从$20多美金，飙升到$208美金，1年翻了10倍!让管理层和股民们迎来了一波又一波的高潮。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d5f57fe8fa58dda1eeb639fef94cfd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"847\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而这种“成功”让Zillow公司从上到下都充满了自信。随着COVID-19疫情在美国的肆虐，美国政府实施了前所未有的货币宽松政策，这让美国的房市在疫情后快速上涨，也使得Zillow的iBuyer业务受益匪浅。</p>\n<p>然而，在表面的歌舞升平下，一场前所未有的危机也开始酝酿。</p>\n<p>Zillow看家的“本领”就是他们引以为豪的AI定价技术——Zestimate。通过多年的不断进化，这个AI定价技术，甚至可以把估价的误差缩小到5%以内。</p>\n<p>不过随着美国房价的不断疯狂上涨，这个AI模型也出现了问题：很多业内人士和卖家发现Zestimate往往会给出高于合理市场价格的评估，也就是说AI模型在定价上有点“超前了”。</p>\n<p>在2018年之前，当Zestimate出现偏差的时候，地产经纪们往往只是嗤之以鼻，告诉客户要以市场的实际成交为准。而且在房子最后成交后，事实也经常能证明专业的地产经纪的估价比Zestimate更准确。</p>\n<p>但是2018年以后，Zillow进入了iBuyer业务，也就是说，一旦Zestimate给出了估值，那么Zellow Offers就可能出给卖家这个价格的offer。</p>\n<p>这就形成了一个自证预言(self-fulfilling prophecy)：Zestimate的高估值，直接变成了市场成交价格，然后Zillow就会以更高的价格list到市场，继续推高市场价格。</p>\n<p>既然Zillow Offers和类似的Opendoor可以提供更高的价格给卖家，那么很多卖家更愿意选择卖给iBuyer。</p>\n<p>当然，由于Zillow和Opendoor会收取很高昂的服务费(8%-20%)，扣掉这个费用后到卖家手中的钱可能低于传统通过经纪卖房子，所以并不是所有房子都卖给了Zillow和Opendoor。不过，还是有相当多的房子高价卖给了Zillow。</p>\n<p>而随着第三季度美国房地产市场价格的增长放缓，Zillow的问题出现了。</p>\n<p>他们的AI定价模型太超前，高估了市场价格的增长速度，于是他们高价买入的房子，无法售出，最后竟然大部分低于买入价售出。</p>\n<p>要知道，即使他们用买入价原价售出，都要损失掉交易成本这部分，现在还要低于买入价售出，这就造成了巨大的亏损。</p>\n<p>在第三季度，Zillow一共卖出了3032套房屋，而根据财报，Zillow的iBuyer业务第三季度亏损是3.8亿美金。这样算下来，平均每套房子，Zillow亏损了超过12万美金!这是妥妥的资本被韭菜们的反向收割了!</p>\n<p><b>五、结语</b></p>\n<p>在11月2日的采访中，Zillow的创始人兼CEO Rich Barton解释说，房地产市场的价格波动比Zillow管理层原先预计的高很多，AI定价因此出了问题，所以公司决定停止Zillow Offers业务，并且裁员25%。</p>\n<p>这么看来，在Zillow公司股价飙涨的时候，从CEO到下面管理层，都过于自信了，他们相信AI可以很好的预测市场，最后竟然自己给自己洗脑了。</p>\n<p>奥斯卡·王尔德曾经说过：爱，始于自我欺骗，终于欺骗他人。而这个故事告诉我们：iBuyer模式，始于欺骗他人，终于自我欺骗。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2baf3ed49adee692a5804eda7c8ec586\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后，市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读：</p>\n<p>有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务，预示着房价的反转，可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。</p>\n<p>也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手，Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利，反而更加看好这个业务。</p>\n<p>而我认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI，又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。</p>\n<p>这种暴雷的事情仍将会一次次重演，无论是几年前中国各种O2O概念暴雷，到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WE\">WeWork</a>上市失败，再到现在的Zillow，这些底层商业逻辑就有问题的生意，就靠着野蛮扩张，迅速增加“营业额”，就可以不断推高估值，玩弄着资本和散户。</p>\n<p>就像黑格尔所说的：人类从历史中学到的唯一的教训，就是没有从历史中吸取到任何教训。</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow暴雷——一个资本被韭菜们收割的故事</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow暴雷——一个资本被韭菜们收割的故事\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-04 14:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/593266.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国最著名的地产高科技公司Zillow暴雷了!\n11月2日，Zillow宣布退出之前被华尔街广泛看好的 “炒房” 业务(iBuyer)，当日内Zillow股价暴跌超过10%，然后11月3日开盘再次下跌17.5%。\n而就在短短几个月前，Zillow股价最高到达过$208，现在仅剩下$70！受到Zillow影响，同样做iBuyer业务的Opendoor，股价也大幅跳水，一日之内下跌了15%。\n曾经被...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/593266.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b1cf0c27a3195e205fafc401e5c94c","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/593266.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2180737766","content_text":"美国最著名的地产高科技公司Zillow暴雷了!\n11月2日，Zillow宣布退出之前被华尔街广泛看好的 “炒房” 业务(iBuyer)，当日内Zillow股价暴跌超过10%，然后11月3日开盘再次下跌17.5%。\n而就在短短几个月前，Zillow股价最高到达过$208，现在仅剩下$70！受到Zillow影响，同样做iBuyer业务的Opendoor，股价也大幅跳水，一日之内下跌了15%。\n曾经被认为是互联网地产行业的暴富神话，让Zillow股价一年翻了10倍的iBuyer模式，一夜之间跌落神坛。\n要了解这个巨星是如何陨落的，就让我来给大家讲一个“资本反被韭菜们收割”的故事吧。\n一、信箱中的手写黄纸条\n不知道从何时开始，在美国和加拿大的很多地方，人们会在信箱或门缝里收到一张黄色的手写小纸条。\n纸条的大概意思就是，我是一个在这个小区购买房屋的投资人，我看中了你的房子，我愿意支付给你现金买你的房子，而且可以很短的时间内就closing，感兴趣请拨打电话XXX-XXX-XXXX。\n纸条上也经常会写上，把房子卖给投资人的好处：\n1、不通过经纪，不需要支付任何经纪费用\n2、不需要维修房子，sold “as is”\n3、没有open house，不用showing\n\n但是很快就有主流媒体开始报道这个现象，并且警告屋主们要小心，因为这很可能是一个“骗局“。\n媒体经过调查发现，这些所谓的“投资人”，往往只报给卖家大约市场价的70%-80%甚至更低的价格。\n这些“投资人”一般会选择那些比较老的社区，比如在多伦多那些midtown的老城区。因为那里有很多单身的老人，他们平时不会很关心房价，并不了解市场的具体情况，而且很多老人也为了省心，想到不用维修就可以卖房子，于是就以非常低的价格把房子卖给了这些“投资人“。\n而这些”投资人“买到房子后，给房子稍作装修，迅速以高于买入价20%-30%甚至更高的价格把房子卖出!\n很多老人在看到房子重新卖掉的价格后，才大呼上当，但是也于事无补了。\n简单说，要想靠这种方法赚钱，主要是两个途径：\n1、 尽量低于市场价，利用信息不对称，从不了解市场的买家手里低价买入房子\n2、 希望市场价格能够高速增长，这样能够以更高的价格卖出\n二、iBuyer模式的起源\n互联网房地产业，在2014年开启了一种全新的赚钱模式——iBuyer!\n创始人Eric Wu是个深谙互联网金融玩法的人。他曾经创立过另外一家地产数据公司Movity，并且成功卖给了Zillow的竞争对手Trulia，获得了第一桶金。\n他很可能受到了黄色小纸条的启发，决心把黄色小纸条带到华尔街。当然他深知把黄色小纸条直接带到华尔街，逼格显然是不够的。\n所以一顿操作猛如虎，把各种互联网概念加到了这个传统的“炒房”模式上，并且把“i“加到”buying“或者”buyer“前面，立刻变得高大上起来。\n\n然而归根到底，他们要说服买家不通过传统渠道卖房子，就要列出他们的优势。总结下来就是：\n1、不通过经纪，不需要支付任何经纪费用(但是他们会收一笔8%-20%的service fee)\n2、不需要维修房子，sold “as is” (但是iBuyer公司会收一笔之后他们维修的费用从卖家那里)\n3、没有open house，不用showing\n这几条怎么感觉看着这么眼熟?\n三、Zillow入局，iBuyer行业迎来春天\n虽然Opendoor在2014年就创立，但是一直也经营的不温不火。毕竟这个模式从赚钱逻辑上有很严重的缺陷：\n1、 相对于传统房地产买卖，iBuyer模式无形中增加了一次交易(需要转手两次)，因此大大增加了交易的成本。\n在美国，一般来说一次房地产交易的成本，即使不考虑经纪费用，仍然有房价2%-3%的交易成本。那么这个成本是谁来承担?最终吃亏的还是终端的买家和卖家。\n2、 黄色小纸条模式之所以能赚钱，是因为利用了信息不对称，可是互联网企业往往给客户提供大量的数据来吸引流量，所以严重的信息不对称是不存在的，iBuyer公司也就很难找到愿意低价卖房的人。\n3、 互联网公司要获得高估值，就需要快速扩张。而上面一条已经说了，因为互联网公司的特性，本来找到“傻子“的难度已经很大了，现在还需要找到“大量的傻子“。于是就出现“骗子太多，傻子明显不够用了”的窘境!\n幸运的是，上面也分析过，黄色小纸条模式有两个赚钱途径，既然第一个找“傻子”的途径走不下去，那还可以靠“市场价格高速增长”这个途径。\n下图是过去20多年美国房价在调整过通胀后的走势(Case-Shiller Home Price Index)：\n\n可以看到，自从2014年iBuyer模式创立开始，美国的房价就一直在高速上涨。\n这就满足了黄色小纸条模式赚钱的第二条途径。于是急于通过提高营收来抬高股价的Zillow，就将目光投向了iBuyer市场，在2018年强势入局，开启了自己的iBuyer业务——Zillow Offers。\nZillow也不是空手而来，凭借其多年来积累强大的AI定价技术，直接把行业带上了新高度!\n有趣的是，Zillow入局的最大受益者，莫过于其竞争对手Opendoor了。\n借着Zillow的强大人气，Opendoor于2018年成功融资4亿美金，又在2019年再融3亿，公司估值直接上升到38亿美金，并最终于2020年末成功上市。\n四、猎人成为猎物，资本反被韭菜们割了\n在Zillow入局iBuyer业务的同时，公司的创始人Rich Barton也重新回到CEO的位置，带领公司全力拓展iBuyer业务。\n他们给自己制定了一个激进的目标，要在2024年实现每个月购买5000套美国的物业，并且大量扩招员工。\n这样的扩张，使Zillow的“营业额“大幅增加：在暴雷前的第三季度，Zillow的营业额同比增长超过500%。\n这种增长，导致公司的股价快速飙升，从2020年初到2021年初的，公司的股价从$20多美金，飙升到$208美金，1年翻了10倍!让管理层和股民们迎来了一波又一波的高潮。\n\n而这种“成功”让Zillow公司从上到下都充满了自信。随着COVID-19疫情在美国的肆虐，美国政府实施了前所未有的货币宽松政策，这让美国的房市在疫情后快速上涨，也使得Zillow的iBuyer业务受益匪浅。\n然而，在表面的歌舞升平下，一场前所未有的危机也开始酝酿。\nZillow看家的“本领”就是他们引以为豪的AI定价技术——Zestimate。通过多年的不断进化，这个AI定价技术，甚至可以把估价的误差缩小到5%以内。\n不过随着美国房价的不断疯狂上涨，这个AI模型也出现了问题：很多业内人士和卖家发现Zestimate往往会给出高于合理市场价格的评估，也就是说AI模型在定价上有点“超前了”。\n在2018年之前，当Zestimate出现偏差的时候，地产经纪们往往只是嗤之以鼻，告诉客户要以市场的实际成交为准。而且在房子最后成交后，事实也经常能证明专业的地产经纪的估价比Zestimate更准确。\n但是2018年以后，Zillow进入了iBuyer业务，也就是说，一旦Zestimate给出了估值，那么Zellow Offers就可能出给卖家这个价格的offer。\n这就形成了一个自证预言(self-fulfilling prophecy)：Zestimate的高估值，直接变成了市场成交价格，然后Zillow就会以更高的价格list到市场，继续推高市场价格。\n既然Zillow Offers和类似的Opendoor可以提供更高的价格给卖家，那么很多卖家更愿意选择卖给iBuyer。\n当然，由于Zillow和Opendoor会收取很高昂的服务费(8%-20%)，扣掉这个费用后到卖家手中的钱可能低于传统通过经纪卖房子，所以并不是所有房子都卖给了Zillow和Opendoor。不过，还是有相当多的房子高价卖给了Zillow。\n而随着第三季度美国房地产市场价格的增长放缓，Zillow的问题出现了。\n他们的AI定价模型太超前，高估了市场价格的增长速度，于是他们高价买入的房子，无法售出，最后竟然大部分低于买入价售出。\n要知道，即使他们用买入价原价售出，都要损失掉交易成本这部分，现在还要低于买入价售出，这就造成了巨大的亏损。\n在第三季度，Zillow一共卖出了3032套房屋，而根据财报，Zillow的iBuyer业务第三季度亏损是3.8亿美金。这样算下来，平均每套房子，Zillow亏损了超过12万美金!这是妥妥的资本被韭菜们的反向收割了!\n五、结语\n在11月2日的采访中，Zillow的创始人兼CEO Rich Barton解释说，房地产市场的价格波动比Zillow管理层原先预计的高很多，AI定价因此出了问题，所以公司决定停止Zillow Offers业务，并且裁员25%。\n这么看来，在Zillow公司股价飙涨的时候，从CEO到下面管理层，都过于自信了，他们相信AI可以很好的预测市场，最后竟然自己给自己洗脑了。\n奥斯卡·王尔德曾经说过：爱，始于自我欺骗，终于欺骗他人。而这个故事告诉我们：iBuyer模式，始于欺骗他人，终于自我欺骗。\n\n在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后，市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读：\n有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务，预示着房价的反转，可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。\n也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手，Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利，反而更加看好这个业务。\n而我认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI，又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。\n这种暴雷的事情仍将会一次次重演，无论是几年前中国各种O2O概念暴雷，到WeWork上市失败，再到现在的Zillow，这些底层商业逻辑就有问题的生意，就靠着野蛮扩张，迅速增加“营业额”，就可以不断推高估值，玩弄着资本和散户。\n就像黑格尔所说的：人类从历史中学到的唯一的教训，就是没有从历史中吸取到任何教训。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846820758,"gmtCreate":1636073908668,"gmtModify":1636073908864,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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hahah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853780650","repostId":"853717930","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":853717930,"gmtCreate":1634839562241,"gmtModify":1634839562491,"author":{"id":"3586490126059662","authorId":"3586490126059662","name":"SlowNana","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586490126059662","idStr":"3586490126059662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>When greed caught u... lessons&nbsp;learnt","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>When greed caught u... lessons&nbsp;learnt","text":"$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$When greed caught u... lessons 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Inc.(PLTR)$这个就是缩小版fubo…涨的比fubo一般低20%，跌量差不多。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834511350","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893997610,"gmtCreate":1628227179930,"gmtModify":1631890661593,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893997610","repostId":"1188253337","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188253337","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628216944,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188253337?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 10:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Can Rise Another 6% This Year, Goldman Sachs Says. Why It’s So Upbeat.<blockquote>高盛表示，标普500今年可能再上涨6%。为什么这么乐观。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188253337","media":"Barrons","summary":"Goldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&P 500, saying corporate earnings have been t","content":"<p>Goldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&amp;P 500, saying corporate earnings have been too strong to ignore and that bond yields are remaining stubbornly low.</p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师上调了标普500的目标，称企业盈利强劲，不容忽视，债券收益率仍居高不下。</blockquote></p><p> The investment bank now says the market benchmark could reach 4700 by year-end, up from its previous call of 4300. That implies a gain of just over 6% from the index’s current level.</p><p><blockquote>该投资银行现在表示，到年底，市场基准可能会达到4700点，高于之前4300点的看涨期权。这意味着该指数较当前水平上涨略高于6%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the main factors behind the more upbeat view is that second-quarter earnings are coming in far higher than expected, exceeding expectations&nbsp;by historically wide margins. The Goldman strategists now expect aggregate earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 will be $207 this year, up from a previous forecast of $193. For 2022, they are expecting aggregate EPS of $212, up from $202.</p><p><blockquote>更为乐观的观点背后的主要因素之一是第二季度盈利远高于预期，超出预期的幅度为历史上较大。高盛策略师目前预计，标普500公司今年的每股总收益将为207美元，高于此前预测的193美元。他们预计2022年总每股收益为212美元，高于202美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecasts represent respective year-over-year growth of 45% and 2%, as pent-up demand drives this year’s profits past 2019 levels, before growth moderates in 2022. The strategists incorporated a corporate tax-rate increase into their 2022 profit projection, reducing it slightly.</p><p><blockquote>预测分别为45%和2%的同比增长，因为被压抑的需求推动今年的利润超过2019年的水平，然后增长将在2022年放缓。策略师将企业税率上调纳入2022年利润预测中，并略有降低。</blockquote></p><p> The other key consideration is that valuations could remain fairly high because&nbsp;bond yields remain low. Goldman sees stocks in the index trading at an average of 22.1 times the per-share earnings expected for the 2022, slightly higher than the current 21 times. Low bond yields reduce the appeal of investing in fixed-income securities, as well as increasing the current value of future profits.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是，由于债券收益率仍然较低，估值可能仍然相当高。高盛预计该指数股票的平均交易价格是2022年每股收益预期的22.1倍，略高于目前的21倍。低债券收益率降低了投资固定收益证券的吸引力，也增加了未来利润的现值。</blockquote></p><p> “Lower interest rates than expected support a stable forward P/E multiple of 22x,” wrote David Kostin, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin写道：“低于预期的利率支撑了22倍的稳定预期市盈率。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists lowered their forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.6% from 1.9% by year-end. Yields are now at 1.2%, even as inflation expectations have risen and some market participants have seen buying the debt as a good trade.</p><p><blockquote>策略师将年底前10年期国债收益率预期从1.9%下调至1.6%。尽管通胀预期上升，一些市场参与者认为购买债券是一笔不错的交易，但收益率目前仍为1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>I</b>nflation is expected to be a bit over 2% for the long term, according to St. Louis Fed data, and bond investors usually demand a return greater than the rate of inflation. But the 10-year Treasury yield has remained far below expected inflation, even after a period during which some investors were&nbsp;piling into the debt, sending the price up and the yield down.</p><p><blockquote><b>我</b>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，长期通胀率预计将略高于2%，债券投资者通常要求高于通胀率的回报。但10年期国债收益率仍远低于预期通胀，即使在一些投资者大量买入债券导致价格上涨和收益率下降的一段时间之后。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s 2021 target for the S&amp;P 500 implies an earnings yield for stocks that would be 3 percentage points higher than what investors can get from bonds at 1.6%. And that makes stock valuations look reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>高盛2021年标普500目标意味着股票收益率将比投资者从债券中获得的1.6%高出3个百分点。这使得股票估值看起来合理。</blockquote></p><p> The current Goldilocks environment—a sturdy economy, but with low bond yields—is keeping stocks in favor.</p><p><blockquote>当前的金发姑娘环境——经济强劲，但债券收益率较低——使股市受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Can Rise Another 6% This Year, Goldman Sachs Says. Why It’s So Upbeat.<blockquote>高盛表示，标普500今年可能再上涨6%。为什么这么乐观。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Can Rise Another 6% This Year, Goldman Sachs Says. Why It’s So Upbeat.<blockquote>高盛表示，标普500今年可能再上涨6%。为什么这么乐观。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 10:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Goldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&amp;P 500, saying corporate earnings have been too strong to ignore and that bond yields are remaining stubbornly low.</p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师上调了标普500的目标，称企业盈利强劲，不容忽视，债券收益率仍居高不下。</blockquote></p><p> The investment bank now says the market benchmark could reach 4700 by year-end, up from its previous call of 4300. That implies a gain of just over 6% from the index’s current level.</p><p><blockquote>该投资银行现在表示，到年底，市场基准可能会达到4700点，高于之前4300点的看涨期权。这意味着该指数较当前水平上涨略高于6%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the main factors behind the more upbeat view is that second-quarter earnings are coming in far higher than expected, exceeding expectations&nbsp;by historically wide margins. The Goldman strategists now expect aggregate earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 will be $207 this year, up from a previous forecast of $193. For 2022, they are expecting aggregate EPS of $212, up from $202.</p><p><blockquote>更为乐观的观点背后的主要因素之一是第二季度盈利远高于预期，超出预期的幅度为历史上较大。高盛策略师目前预计，标普500公司今年的每股总收益将为207美元，高于此前预测的193美元。他们预计2022年总每股收益为212美元，高于202美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecasts represent respective year-over-year growth of 45% and 2%, as pent-up demand drives this year’s profits past 2019 levels, before growth moderates in 2022. The strategists incorporated a corporate tax-rate increase into their 2022 profit projection, reducing it slightly.</p><p><blockquote>预测分别为45%和2%的同比增长，因为被压抑的需求推动今年的利润超过2019年的水平，然后增长将在2022年放缓。策略师将企业税率上调纳入2022年利润预测中，并略有降低。</blockquote></p><p> The other key consideration is that valuations could remain fairly high because&nbsp;bond yields remain low. Goldman sees stocks in the index trading at an average of 22.1 times the per-share earnings expected for the 2022, slightly higher than the current 21 times. Low bond yields reduce the appeal of investing in fixed-income securities, as well as increasing the current value of future profits.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是，由于债券收益率仍然较低，估值可能仍然相当高。高盛预计该指数股票的平均交易价格是2022年每股收益预期的22.1倍，略高于目前的21倍。低债券收益率降低了投资固定收益证券的吸引力，也增加了未来利润的现值。</blockquote></p><p> “Lower interest rates than expected support a stable forward P/E multiple of 22x,” wrote David Kostin, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin写道：“低于预期的利率支撑了22倍的稳定预期市盈率。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists lowered their forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.6% from 1.9% by year-end. Yields are now at 1.2%, even as inflation expectations have risen and some market participants have seen buying the debt as a good trade.</p><p><blockquote>策略师将年底前10年期国债收益率预期从1.9%下调至1.6%。尽管通胀预期上升，一些市场参与者认为购买债券是一笔不错的交易，但收益率目前仍为1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>I</b>nflation is expected to be a bit over 2% for the long term, according to St. Louis Fed data, and bond investors usually demand a return greater than the rate of inflation. But the 10-year Treasury yield has remained far below expected inflation, even after a period during which some investors were&nbsp;piling into the debt, sending the price up and the yield down.</p><p><blockquote><b>我</b>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，长期通胀率预计将略高于2%，债券投资者通常要求高于通胀率的回报。但10年期国债收益率仍远低于预期通胀，即使在一些投资者大量买入债券导致价格上涨和收益率下降的一段时间之后。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s 2021 target for the S&amp;P 500 implies an earnings yield for stocks that would be 3 percentage points higher than what investors can get from bonds at 1.6%. And that makes stock valuations look reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>高盛2021年标普500目标意味着股票收益率将比投资者从债券中获得的1.6%高出3个百分点。这使得股票估值看起来合理。</blockquote></p><p> The current Goldilocks environment—a sturdy economy, but with low bond yields—is keeping stocks in favor.</p><p><blockquote>当前的金发姑娘环境——经济强劲，但债券收益率较低——使股市受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-sp-500-more-gains-goldman-sachs-51628182610?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-sp-500-more-gains-goldman-sachs-51628182610?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188253337","content_text":"Goldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&P 500, saying corporate earnings have been too strong to ignore and that bond yields are remaining stubbornly low.\nThe investment bank now says the market benchmark could reach 4700 by year-end, up from its previous call of 4300. That implies a gain of just over 6% from the index’s current level.\nOne of the main factors behind the more upbeat view is that second-quarter earnings are coming in far higher than expected, exceeding expectations by historically wide margins. The Goldman strategists now expect aggregate earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 will be $207 this year, up from a previous forecast of $193. For 2022, they are expecting aggregate EPS of $212, up from $202.\nThe forecasts represent respective year-over-year growth of 45% and 2%, as pent-up demand drives this year’s profits past 2019 levels, before growth moderates in 2022. The strategists incorporated a corporate tax-rate increase into their 2022 profit projection, reducing it slightly.\nThe other key consideration is that valuations could remain fairly high because bond yields remain low. Goldman sees stocks in the index trading at an average of 22.1 times the per-share earnings expected for the 2022, slightly higher than the current 21 times. Low bond yields reduce the appeal of investing in fixed-income securities, as well as increasing the current value of future profits.\n“Lower interest rates than expected support a stable forward P/E multiple of 22x,” wrote David Kostin, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist.\nThe strategists lowered their forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.6% from 1.9% by year-end. Yields are now at 1.2%, even as inflation expectations have risen and some market participants have seen buying the debt as a good trade.\nInflation is expected to be a bit over 2% for the long term, according to St. Louis Fed data, and bond investors usually demand a return greater than the rate of inflation. But the 10-year Treasury yield has remained far below expected inflation, even after a period during which some investors were piling into the debt, sending the price up and the yield down.\nGoldman’s 2021 target for the S&P 500 implies an earnings yield for stocks that would be 3 percentage points higher than what investors can get from bonds at 1.6%. And that makes stock valuations look reasonable.\nThe current Goldilocks environment—a sturdy economy, but with low bond yields—is keeping stocks in favor.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807278044,"gmtCreate":1628041284688,"gmtModify":1631890661606,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"cuteee","listText":"cuteee","text":"cuteee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807278044","repostId":"807239049","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":807239049,"gmtCreate":1628038027081,"gmtModify":1631885468721,"author":{"id":"3574211136633341","authorId":"3574211136633341","name":"Qian6","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/560166d33c2aac815f31935f3e157ec4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574211136633341","idStr":"3574211136633341"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go back to $20 please&nbsp;","listText":"Go back to $20 please&nbsp;","text":"Go back to $20 please","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d915cee217854e02fc50c9447e319e7b","width":"750","height":"2280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807239049","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807279882,"gmtCreate":1628041177546,"gmtModify":1631890661614,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"iooo","listText":"iooo","text":"iooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807279882","repostId":"1160773280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160773280","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628040319,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160773280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 09:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why An S&P 500 Buyback Boom Could Be Just Around The Corner<blockquote>为什么标普500回购热潮即将来临</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160773280","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Analysts are expecting S&P 500 earnings to surge 40.7% in 2021 off of extremely easy pandemic comps.","content":"<p>Analysts are expecting S&amp;P 500 earnings to surge 40.7% in 2021 off of extremely easy pandemic comps. On Tuesday, DataTrek Research co-founder&nbsp;<b>Nicholas Colas</b>&nbsp;said one of the impacts of that burst of earnings growth will likely be a huge increase in S&amp;P 500 share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，标普500 2021年的盈利将在极其轻松的疫情比较中飙升40.7%。周二，DataTrek Research联合创始人<b>尼古拉斯·科拉斯</b>表示，盈利爆发式增长的影响之一可能是标普500股票回购的大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Numbers:</b>Prior to the pandemic, S&amp;P 500 companies reported $1.305 billion in 2019 net operating profits. About $485 billion of those profits (37%) went to dividends, while $729 billion (56%) went to stock buybacks.</p><p><blockquote><b>数字：</b>在疫情之前，标普500公司报告2019年净营业利润为13.05亿美元。其中约4850亿美元（37%）用于股息，7290亿美元（56%）用于股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> In 2018 and 2019, 99% and 93% of S&amp;P 500 net operating profits went to either dividends or buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>2018年和2019年，标普500净营业利润的99%和93%用于股息或回购。</blockquote></p><p> “With S&amp;P earnings now 23 percent higher than 2018-19 ($162/share then, $200/share now), we should expect to see many companies in the index dramatically increase their return of cash to shareholders over the rest of 2021 and into 2022,” Colas said.</p><p><blockquote>“由于标准普尔目前的盈利比2018-19年高出23%（当时为162美元/股，现在为200美元/股），我们应该预计该指数中的许多公司将在2021年剩余时间和2022年大幅增加对股东的现金回报，”科拉斯说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks Over Dividends:</b>&nbsp;Colas&nbsp;said investors should anticipate companies will prioritize buybacks over dividends in the current climate given the uncertainties that lie ahead in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote><b>股息回购：</b>Colas表示，鉴于2022年及以后的不确定性，投资者应该预计，在当前环境下，公司将优先考虑回购而不是股息。</blockquote></p><p> Investors tend to react more negatively to dividend cuts than a pause in buybacks in the event of another economic downturn, so he&nbsp;said investors should expect a relatively high percentage of excess profits to go to buybacks for now.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对削减股息的反应往往比在经济再次下滑时暂停回购更消极，因此他表示，投资者目前应该预计相对较高比例的超额利润将用于回购。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of 2021, S&amp;P 500 companies were buying back stock at an annual run rate of about $712 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，标普500公司回购股票的年增长率约为7120亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> If they were to return to 2018 and 2019 levels based on&nbsp;updated earnings expectations, they would be buying back stock at around a $1-trillion annual run rate, Colas said. In other words, investors can expect at least an additional $250 billion per quarter in buybacks over the next several quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Colas表示，如果他们根据更新的盈利预期恢复到2018年和2019年的水平，他们将以每年约1万亿美元的运行速度回购股票。换句话说，投资者预计未来几个季度每季度至少会有2500亿美元的额外回购。</blockquote></p><p> More buybacks are generally good news overall for the&nbsp;<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</b>(NYSE:SPY), but simply returning to pre-pandemic levels of capital returns isn’t a particularly bullish catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，更多的回购对于<b>SPDR标普500 ETF信托</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF），但简单地恢复到大流行前的资本回报水平并不是特别看涨的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> “A large increase in stock buybacks is therefore certainly good, but not great, news for US equities,” Colas said.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示：“因此，股票回购的大幅增加对美国股市来说当然是好消息，但不是好消息。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Investors should understand a potential surge in buybacks will impact some marketsectors&nbsp;far more than others. In fact, Colas said the Technology and Financialsectors alone have accounted for 52% of all S&amp;P 500 share buybacks over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga的看法：</b>投资者应该明白，回购的潜在激增对某些市场板块的影响将远远大于其他市场板块。事实上，科拉斯表示，过去五年，仅科技和金融行业就占标普500所有股票回购的52%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why An S&P 500 Buyback Boom Could Be Just Around The Corner<blockquote>为什么标普500回购热潮即将来临</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy An S&P 500 Buyback Boom Could Be Just Around The Corner<blockquote>为什么标普500回购热潮即将来临</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-04 09:25</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Analysts are expecting S&amp;P 500 earnings to surge 40.7% in 2021 off of extremely easy pandemic comps. On Tuesday, DataTrek Research co-founder&nbsp;<b>Nicholas Colas</b>&nbsp;said one of the impacts of that burst of earnings growth will likely be a huge increase in S&amp;P 500 share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，标普500 2021年的盈利将在极其轻松的疫情比较中飙升40.7%。周二，DataTrek Research联合创始人<b>尼古拉斯·科拉斯</b>表示，盈利爆发式增长的影响之一可能是标普500股票回购的大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Numbers:</b>Prior to the pandemic, S&amp;P 500 companies reported $1.305 billion in 2019 net operating profits. About $485 billion of those profits (37%) went to dividends, while $729 billion (56%) went to stock buybacks.</p><p><blockquote><b>数字：</b>在疫情之前，标普500公司报告2019年净营业利润为13.05亿美元。其中约4850亿美元（37%）用于股息，7290亿美元（56%）用于股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> In 2018 and 2019, 99% and 93% of S&amp;P 500 net operating profits went to either dividends or buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>2018年和2019年，标普500净营业利润的99%和93%用于股息或回购。</blockquote></p><p> “With S&amp;P earnings now 23 percent higher than 2018-19 ($162/share then, $200/share now), we should expect to see many companies in the index dramatically increase their return of cash to shareholders over the rest of 2021 and into 2022,” Colas said.</p><p><blockquote>“由于标准普尔目前的盈利比2018-19年高出23%（当时为162美元/股，现在为200美元/股），我们应该预计该指数中的许多公司将在2021年剩余时间和2022年大幅增加对股东的现金回报，”科拉斯说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks Over Dividends:</b>&nbsp;Colas&nbsp;said investors should anticipate companies will prioritize buybacks over dividends in the current climate given the uncertainties that lie ahead in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote><b>股息回购：</b>Colas表示，鉴于2022年及以后的不确定性，投资者应该预计，在当前环境下，公司将优先考虑回购而不是股息。</blockquote></p><p> Investors tend to react more negatively to dividend cuts than a pause in buybacks in the event of another economic downturn, so he&nbsp;said investors should expect a relatively high percentage of excess profits to go to buybacks for now.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对削减股息的反应往往比在经济再次下滑时暂停回购更消极，因此他表示，投资者目前应该预计相对较高比例的超额利润将用于回购。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of 2021, S&amp;P 500 companies were buying back stock at an annual run rate of about $712 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，标普500公司回购股票的年增长率约为7120亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> If they were to return to 2018 and 2019 levels based on&nbsp;updated earnings expectations, they would be buying back stock at around a $1-trillion annual run rate, Colas said. In other words, investors can expect at least an additional $250 billion per quarter in buybacks over the next several quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Colas表示，如果他们根据更新的盈利预期恢复到2018年和2019年的水平，他们将以每年约1万亿美元的运行速度回购股票。换句话说，投资者预计未来几个季度每季度至少会有2500亿美元的额外回购。</blockquote></p><p> More buybacks are generally good news overall for the&nbsp;<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</b>(NYSE:SPY), but simply returning to pre-pandemic levels of capital returns isn’t a particularly bullish catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，更多的回购对于<b>SPDR标普500 ETF信托</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF），但简单地恢复到大流行前的资本回报水平并不是特别看涨的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> “A large increase in stock buybacks is therefore certainly good, but not great, news for US equities,” Colas said.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示：“因此，股票回购的大幅增加对美国股市来说当然是好消息，但不是好消息。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Investors should understand a potential surge in buybacks will impact some marketsectors&nbsp;far more than others. In fact, Colas said the Technology and Financialsectors alone have accounted for 52% of all S&amp;P 500 share buybacks over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga的看法：</b>投资者应该明白，回购的潜在激增对某些市场板块的影响将远远大于其他市场板块。事实上，科拉斯表示，过去五年，仅科技和金融行业就占标普500所有股票回购的52%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160773280","content_text":"Analysts are expecting S&P 500 earnings to surge 40.7% in 2021 off of extremely easy pandemic comps. On Tuesday, DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said one of the impacts of that burst of earnings growth will likely be a huge increase in S&P 500 share buybacks.\nThe Numbers:Prior to the pandemic, S&P 500 companies reported $1.305 billion in 2019 net operating profits. About $485 billion of those profits (37%) went to dividends, while $729 billion (56%) went to stock buybacks.\nIn 2018 and 2019, 99% and 93% of S&P 500 net operating profits went to either dividends or buybacks.\n“With S&P earnings now 23 percent higher than 2018-19 ($162/share then, $200/share now), we should expect to see many companies in the index dramatically increase their return of cash to shareholders over the rest of 2021 and into 2022,” Colas said.\nBuybacks Over Dividends: Colas said investors should anticipate companies will prioritize buybacks over dividends in the current climate given the uncertainties that lie ahead in 2022 and beyond.\nInvestors tend to react more negatively to dividend cuts than a pause in buybacks in the event of another economic downturn, so he said investors should expect a relatively high percentage of excess profits to go to buybacks for now.\nIn the first quarter of 2021, S&P 500 companies were buying back stock at an annual run rate of about $712 billion.\nIf they were to return to 2018 and 2019 levels based on updated earnings expectations, they would be buying back stock at around a $1-trillion annual run rate, Colas said. In other words, investors can expect at least an additional $250 billion per quarter in buybacks over the next several quarters.\nMore buybacks are generally good news overall for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY), but simply returning to pre-pandemic levels of capital returns isn’t a particularly bullish catalyst.\n“A large increase in stock buybacks is therefore certainly good, but not great, news for US equities,” Colas said.\nBenzinga’s Take:Investors should understand a potential surge in buybacks will impact some marketsectors far more than others. In fact, Colas said the Technology and Financialsectors alone have accounted for 52% of all S&P 500 share buybacks over the past five years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145076865,"gmtCreate":1626184769257,"gmtModify":1631890661625,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LOL when u don’t understand what Palantir does and just post an article with a paper brain but anyways cheers when palantir goes up, this article will age well","listText":"LOL when u don’t understand what Palantir does and just post an article with a paper brain but anyways cheers when palantir goes up, this article will age well","text":"LOL when u don’t understand what Palantir does and just post an article with a paper brain but anyways cheers when palantir goes up, this article will age 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>haha","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>haha","text":"$Coinbase Global, 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00:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks To Watch: Apple Event, Disney Callout And Earnings Blitz<blockquote>值得关注的股票：苹果活动、迪士尼预告和盈利闪电战</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162662309","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Stocks to Watch - a preview of key events scheduled for the this week. Follow this account and turn the e-mail alert on to receive this article in your inbox every Saturday morning. A podcast of Stocks to Watch is also available on Sundays onSeeking Alpha,Apple Podcasts,StitcherandSpotify.Economic reports due out this week include the latest updates on existing home sales, new home sales, jobless claims and PMI. Big earnings reports blast in every day this week across ","content":"<p>Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Stocks to Watch - a preview of key events scheduled for the this week. Follow this account and turn the e-mail alert on to receive this article in your inbox every Saturday morning. A podcast of Stocks to Watch is also available on Sundays onSeeking Alpha,Apple Podcasts,StitcherandSpotify(click the highlighted links).</p><p><blockquote>欢迎来到Seeking Alpha的股票观看-本周计划的关键事件预览。关注此帐户并打开电子邮件提醒，每周六早上在您的收件箱中收到这篇文章。周日还可以在Seeking Alpha、苹果播客、Stitcher和Spotify上观看值得关注的股票播客（单击突出显示的链接）。</blockquote></p><p>Economic reports due out this week include the latest updates on existing home sales, new home sales, jobless claims and PMI. Big earnings reports blast in every day this week across sectors. Of note, the follow-up conference calls from Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)could be on the interesting side. On the vaccine front, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is expected to meet late this week to consider recommendations for Johnson &amp; Johnson's(NYSE:JNJ)shot, which has been linked to rare blood clots in the brain.</p><p><blockquote>本周将发布的经济报告包括成屋销售、新屋销售、初请失业金人数和PMI的最新数据。本周各行业每天都会发布大型盈利报告。值得注意的是，可口可乐（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KO）、Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）的后续会议评级可能会很有趣。在疫苗方面，美国疾病控制与预防中心免疫实践咨询委员会预计将于本周晚些时候召开会议，考虑强生公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JNJ）疫苗的建议，该疫苗与大脑中罕见的血栓有关。</blockquote></p><p><b>Earnings spotlight:</b>&nbsp;Earnings season heats up in a big way with reports due in from Coca-Cola (KO), IBM(NYSE:IBM)and United Airlines(NASDAQ:UAL)on April 19; Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), Procter &amp; Gamble(NYSE:PG), Philip Morris International(NYSE:PM), Abbott Labs(NYSE:ABT)and Netflix (NFLX) on April 20; Anthem(NYSE:ANTM), Verizon(NYSE:VZ), Chipotle(NYSE:CMG)and Lam Research(NASDAQ:LRCX)on April 21; AT&amp;T(NYSE:T), Dow(NYSE:DOW), Intel (INTC), Seagate Tech(NASDAQ:STX)and Mattel(NASDAQ:MAT)on April 22; as well as American Express(NYSE:AXP)and Honeywell(NYSE:HON)on April 23.</p><p><blockquote><b>盈利聚焦：</b>随着可口可乐(KO)、IBM(NYSE：IBM)和联合航空(纳斯达克：UAL)将于4月19日发布报告，财报季大幅升温；4月20日，强生公司(JNJ)、宝洁公司(NYSE：PG)、菲利普莫里斯国际公司(NYSE：PM)、雅培实验室(NYSE：ABT)和Netflix(NFLX)；Anthem（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ANTM）、Verizon（纽约证券交易所股票代码：VZ）、Chipotle（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CMG）和Lam Research（纳斯达克股票代码：LRCX）4月21日；AT&amp;T（纽约证券交易所股票代码：T）、陶氏化学（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DOW）、英特尔（INTC）、希捷科技（纳斯达克股票代码：STX）和美泰（纳斯达克股票代码：MAT）4月22日；以及4月23日的美国运通（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AXP）和霍尼韦尔（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HON）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522c9bdad799a71c4e6bad965f9f00f3\" tg-width=\"1530\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>IPO watch:</b>&nbsp;IPOs expected to start trading during the week include UiPAth (PATH), DoubleVerify (DV) and NeuroPace (NPCE) on April 20, as well as Zymergern (ZY) and KnowBe4 (KNBE) on April 22. IPO lockup periods expire on Datto Holding(NYSE:MSP), Topaz Energy(NYSE:TPZ), McAfee(NASDAQ:MCFE), Guild Holdings(NYSE:GHLD), Foghorn Therapeutics(NASDAQ:FHTX)and ComSovereign Holding(NASDAQ:COMS). The analyst quiet period expires on ThredUp(NASDAQ:TDUP)on April 20 to free up analysts to post ratings. Shares of Trip.com(NASDAQ:TRIP)will begin trading in Hong Kong this week following a new listing.</p><p><blockquote><b>IPO观察：</b>预计本周开始交易的IPO包括4月20日的UiPAth(PATH)、DoubleVerify(DV)和NeuroPace(NPCE)，以及4月22日的Zymergern(ZY)和KnowBe4(KNBE)。Datto Holding(NYSE：MSP)、Topaz Energy(NYSE：TPZ)、McAfee(纳斯达克：MCFE)、Guild Holdings(NYSE：GHLD)、Foghorn Therapeutics(纳斯达克：FHTX)和ComSovereign Holding(纳斯达克：COMS）。ThredUp（纳斯达克股票代码：TDUP）的分析师静默期将于4月20日到期，以便分析师可以发布评级。携程（纳斯达克股票代码：TRIP）的股票将于本周在香港上市后开始交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>Apple event:</b>&nbsp;Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)holds an event on April 20 called \"Spring Loaded\" to show off new products. Information out of Cupertino has been pretty tight, but the company could reveal new iPads, new iMacs, new AirPods, AirTags, a new Apple TV and possibly a new Apple Pencil.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果事件：</b>苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）将于4月20日举办名为“Spring Loaded”的活动，展示新产品。来自库比蒂诺的信息相当紧张，但该公司可能会发布新的iPad、新的iMac、新的AirPods、AirTags、新的苹果电视，可能还有新的苹果铅笔。</blockquote></p><p><b>Projected dividend increases (quarterly):</b>&nbsp;Expected dividend boosts for the week include Comfort Systems USA(NYSE:FIX)to $0.125 from $0.1115, HP Enterprise(NYSE:HPE)to $0.1275 from $0.12, Pool Corp(NASDAQ:POOL)to $0.61 from $0.58, Johnson &amp; Johnson to $1.06 from $1.01, Travelers(NYSE:TRV)to $0.88 from $0.85, Southern Company(NYSE:SO)to $0.66 from $0.64, Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI)to $0.27 from $0.2625 and Nasdaq(NASDAQ:NDAQ)to $0.50 from $0.49.</p><p><blockquote><b>预计股息增加（季度）：</b>预计本周股息上调包括Comfort Systems USA(NYSE：FIX)从0.1115美元上调至0.125美元，HP Enterprise(NYSE：HPE)从0.12美元上调至0.1275美元，Pool Corp(纳斯达克：POOL)从0.58美元上调至0.61美元，强生公司(NYSE：TRV)从0.85美元上调至0.88美元，南方公司(NYSE：SO)从0.64美元上调至0.66美元，金德摩根(NYSE：KMI)从0.2625美元上调至0.27美元，纳斯达克(纳斯达克：NDAQ)从0.49美元上调至0.50美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>M&amp;A tidbits:</b>&nbsp;The highly-anticipated Aphria(NASDAQ:APHA)-Tilray(NASDAQ:TLRY)merger is expected to close on April 20. The tender offer on the GenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)-Roche(OTCQX:RHHBY)deal expires on April 21. GW Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:GWPH)shareholders vote on the Jazz Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:JAZZ)deal on April 23.</p><p><blockquote><b>并购花絮：</b>备受期待的Aphria（纳斯达克：APHA）-Tilray（纳斯达克：TLRY）合并预计将于4月20日完成。GenMark Diagnostics（纳斯达克：GNMK）-罗氏（OTCQX：RHHBY）交易的要约收购将于4月21日到期。GW Pharmaceuticals（纳斯达克股票代码：GWPH）股东将于4月23日就Jazz Pharmaceuticals（纳斯达克股票代码：JAZZ）交易进行投票。</blockquote></p><p><b>ARK Invest watch:</b>&nbsp;Investors may want to keep an eye on Coinbase Global(NASDAQ:COIN)after ARK Invest came in Friday with a purchase of 19,599 shares for the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)and 112,539 shares for the ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK). Cathie Wood's firm also defended Silvergate(NYSE:SI)after its mid-week stumble likely in response to the Coinbase IPO. \"Investors potentially took profits to diversify their exposure to crypto in the public markets. \"In our view, the Silvergate Exchange Network, with its strong network effects, positions Silvergate as both a facilitator and a prime beneficiary of increased crypto adoption,\" ARK reasons.</p><p><blockquote><b>方舟投资观察：</b>在ARK Invest周五购买了19,599股ARK Fintech Innovation ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKF）和112,539股ARK Innovation ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKF）后，投资者可能需要关注Coinbase Global（纳斯达克：COIN）：ARKK）。Cathie Wood的公司还为Silvergate(NYSE：SI)进行了辩护，此前Silvergate(NYSE：SI)在周中因Coinbase IPO而出现失误。“投资者可能会获利了结，以分散他们在公开市场上对加密货币的投资。”我们认为，Silvergate交换网络凭借其强大的网络效应，使Silvergate既是加密货币采用增加的推动者，也是主要受益者，”ARK解释道。</blockquote></p><p><b>Corporate spotlight:</b>&nbsp;Major events this week include strategic updates from Advance Auto Parts(NYSE:AAP)and Royal Gold(NYSE:GOLD)on April 20, as well as investor days for Dye &amp; Durham(OTC:DYNDF)and SMART Global(NASDAQ:SGH). On April 21, MGM Resorts(NYSE:MGM)and Entain(OTCPK:GMVHF)along with their U.S. venture BetMGM will host a business update event for analysts and investors. The event will provide deeper insights into the rapidly growing U.S. sports betting and iGaming business of BetMGM. A new forecast on the industry's total addressable market could be a share price catalyst for DraftKings(NASDAQ:DKNG)and Penn National Gaming(NASDAQ:PENN)as well. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of more events to watch.</p><p><blockquote><b>企业聚焦：</b>本周的重大活动包括Advance Auto Parts(NYSE：AAP)和Royal Gold(NYSE：GOLD)4月20日的战略更新，以及Dye&amp;Durham(OTC：DYNDF)和SMART Global(纳斯达克：SGH)的投资者日。4月21日，米高梅度假村(NYSE：MGM)和Entain(OTCPK：GMVHF)及其美国合资企业BetMGM将为分析师和投资者举办业务更新活动。该活动将让人们更深入地了解BetMGM快速增长的美国体育博彩和iGaming业务。对该行业总潜在市场的新预测也可能成为DraftKings（纳斯达克：DKNG）和Penn National Gaming（纳斯达克：PENN）的股价催化剂。查看outSeeking Alpha的Catalyst Watch，了解更多值得关注的活动的详细列表。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Conferences rundown:</b>&nbsp;Notable conferences running during the week include the H.C Wainwright Spring Mining Conference, Linley Spring Processor Conference 2021, the Kempen Life Sciences Conference, the Jefferies Microbiome-based Therapeutics Summit 2021 and the Stifel GMP &amp; Stifel First Energy Canada Cross Sector Insight Conference 2021. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of events to watch.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议概要：</b>本周举行的著名会议包括H.C Wainwright春季采矿会议、2021年Linley春季处理器会议、Kempen生命科学会议、2021年Jefferies基于微生物组的治疗峰会以及2021年Stifel GMP和Stifel First Energy Canada跨部门洞察会议。查看outSeeking Alpha的Catalyst手表，了解要观看的事件的详细列表。</blockquote></p><p><b>Barron's mentions:</b>&nbsp;Disney(NYSE:DIS)makes the cover of Barron's this week as the media giant is given credit for positioning itself for post-COVID growth. Disney is said to have come out ahead after CEO Bob Chapek and team faced the severest of financial stress tests. \"When parks and theaters emptied out a year ago, costs kept rolling in, and the fastest-growing part of the business, streaming, was consuming cash—as it still is. Yet, Disney generated $3.6 billion in free cash during its fiscal year ended last September. It’s seen producing $3.3 billion this year before the numbers begin a sharp rebound,\" notes Jack Hough. While the movie business is still sputtering to restart and the TV business is seen holding steady at best, streaming results have shattered forecasts. Disney+ smashed expectations in piling up 100M in less than 18 months, compared to the 10 years it took Netflix to hit that level. Disney is targeting 300M to 350M subscribers by 2024 across all of its streaming platforms, including Hulu, ESPN+, Hotstar in India, and Star+ in Latin America (launches in June). PetIQ(NASDAQ:PETQ)and O'Reilly Automotive(NASDAQ:ORLY)also land favorable write-ups this week.</p><p><blockquote><b>《巴伦周刊》提到：</b>迪士尼（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）本周登上了《巴伦周刊》的封面，这家媒体巨头因为新冠疫情后的增长做好了定位而受到赞誉。据说，在首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克和团队面临最严峻的财务压力测试后，迪士尼脱颖而出。“一年前，当公园和剧院空无一人时，成本不断滚滚而来，流媒体业务增长最快的部分正在消耗现金——现在仍然如此。然而，迪士尼在截至去年9月的财年中产生了36亿美元的自由现金。在数字开始大幅反弹之前，今年的收入为33亿美元，”杰克·霍夫指出。虽然电影业务仍在艰难重启，电视业务充其量也保持稳定，但流媒体业绩却超出了预期。Disney+在不到18个月的时间里积累了1亿美元，超出了预期，而Netflix花了10年时间才达到这一水平。迪士尼的目标是到2024年在其所有流媒体平台上拥有3亿至3.5亿用户，包括印度的Hulu、ESPN+、Hotstar和拉丁美洲的Star+（6月推出）。PetIQ（纳斯达克股票代码：PETQ）和O’Reilly Automotive（纳斯达克股票代码：ORLY）本周也获得了好评。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks To Watch: Apple Event, Disney Callout And Earnings Blitz<blockquote>值得关注的股票：苹果活动、迪士尼预告和盈利闪电战</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks To Watch: Apple Event, Disney Callout And Earnings Blitz<blockquote>值得关注的股票：苹果活动、迪士尼预告和盈利闪电战</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-19 00:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Stocks to Watch - a preview of key events scheduled for the this week. Follow this account and turn the e-mail alert on to receive this article in your inbox every Saturday morning. A podcast of Stocks to Watch is also available on Sundays onSeeking Alpha,Apple Podcasts,StitcherandSpotify(click the highlighted links).</p><p><blockquote>欢迎来到Seeking Alpha的股票观看-本周计划的关键事件预览。关注此帐户并打开电子邮件提醒，每周六早上在您的收件箱中收到这篇文章。周日还可以在Seeking Alpha、苹果播客、Stitcher和Spotify上观看值得关注的股票播客（单击突出显示的链接）。</blockquote></p><p>Economic reports due out this week include the latest updates on existing home sales, new home sales, jobless claims and PMI. Big earnings reports blast in every day this week across sectors. Of note, the follow-up conference calls from Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)could be on the interesting side. On the vaccine front, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is expected to meet late this week to consider recommendations for Johnson &amp; Johnson's(NYSE:JNJ)shot, which has been linked to rare blood clots in the brain.</p><p><blockquote>本周将发布的经济报告包括成屋销售、新屋销售、初请失业金人数和PMI的最新数据。本周各行业每天都会发布大型盈利报告。值得注意的是，可口可乐（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KO）、Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）的后续会议评级可能会很有趣。在疫苗方面，美国疾病控制与预防中心免疫实践咨询委员会预计将于本周晚些时候召开会议，考虑强生公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JNJ）疫苗的建议，该疫苗与大脑中罕见的血栓有关。</blockquote></p><p><b>Earnings spotlight:</b>&nbsp;Earnings season heats up in a big way with reports due in from Coca-Cola (KO), IBM(NYSE:IBM)and United Airlines(NASDAQ:UAL)on April 19; Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), Procter &amp; Gamble(NYSE:PG), Philip Morris International(NYSE:PM), Abbott Labs(NYSE:ABT)and Netflix (NFLX) on April 20; Anthem(NYSE:ANTM), Verizon(NYSE:VZ), Chipotle(NYSE:CMG)and Lam Research(NASDAQ:LRCX)on April 21; AT&amp;T(NYSE:T), Dow(NYSE:DOW), Intel (INTC), Seagate Tech(NASDAQ:STX)and Mattel(NASDAQ:MAT)on April 22; as well as American Express(NYSE:AXP)and Honeywell(NYSE:HON)on April 23.</p><p><blockquote><b>盈利聚焦：</b>随着可口可乐(KO)、IBM(NYSE：IBM)和联合航空(纳斯达克：UAL)将于4月19日发布报告，财报季大幅升温；4月20日，强生公司(JNJ)、宝洁公司(NYSE：PG)、菲利普莫里斯国际公司(NYSE：PM)、雅培实验室(NYSE：ABT)和Netflix(NFLX)；Anthem（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ANTM）、Verizon（纽约证券交易所股票代码：VZ）、Chipotle（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CMG）和Lam Research（纳斯达克股票代码：LRCX）4月21日；AT&amp;T（纽约证券交易所股票代码：T）、陶氏化学（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DOW）、英特尔（INTC）、希捷科技（纳斯达克股票代码：STX）和美泰（纳斯达克股票代码：MAT）4月22日；以及4月23日的美国运通（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AXP）和霍尼韦尔（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HON）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/522c9bdad799a71c4e6bad965f9f00f3\" tg-width=\"1530\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>IPO watch:</b>&nbsp;IPOs expected to start trading during the week include UiPAth (PATH), DoubleVerify (DV) and NeuroPace (NPCE) on April 20, as well as Zymergern (ZY) and KnowBe4 (KNBE) on April 22. IPO lockup periods expire on Datto Holding(NYSE:MSP), Topaz Energy(NYSE:TPZ), McAfee(NASDAQ:MCFE), Guild Holdings(NYSE:GHLD), Foghorn Therapeutics(NASDAQ:FHTX)and ComSovereign Holding(NASDAQ:COMS). The analyst quiet period expires on ThredUp(NASDAQ:TDUP)on April 20 to free up analysts to post ratings. Shares of Trip.com(NASDAQ:TRIP)will begin trading in Hong Kong this week following a new listing.</p><p><blockquote><b>IPO观察：</b>预计本周开始交易的IPO包括4月20日的UiPAth(PATH)、DoubleVerify(DV)和NeuroPace(NPCE)，以及4月22日的Zymergern(ZY)和KnowBe4(KNBE)。Datto Holding(NYSE：MSP)、Topaz Energy(NYSE：TPZ)、McAfee(纳斯达克：MCFE)、Guild Holdings(NYSE：GHLD)、Foghorn Therapeutics(纳斯达克：FHTX)和ComSovereign Holding(纳斯达克：COMS）。ThredUp（纳斯达克股票代码：TDUP）的分析师静默期将于4月20日到期，以便分析师可以发布评级。携程（纳斯达克股票代码：TRIP）的股票将于本周在香港上市后开始交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>Apple event:</b>&nbsp;Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)holds an event on April 20 called \"Spring Loaded\" to show off new products. Information out of Cupertino has been pretty tight, but the company could reveal new iPads, new iMacs, new AirPods, AirTags, a new Apple TV and possibly a new Apple Pencil.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果事件：</b>苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）将于4月20日举办名为“Spring Loaded”的活动，展示新产品。来自库比蒂诺的信息相当紧张，但该公司可能会发布新的iPad、新的iMac、新的AirPods、AirTags、新的苹果电视，可能还有新的苹果铅笔。</blockquote></p><p><b>Projected dividend increases (quarterly):</b>&nbsp;Expected dividend boosts for the week include Comfort Systems USA(NYSE:FIX)to $0.125 from $0.1115, HP Enterprise(NYSE:HPE)to $0.1275 from $0.12, Pool Corp(NASDAQ:POOL)to $0.61 from $0.58, Johnson &amp; Johnson to $1.06 from $1.01, Travelers(NYSE:TRV)to $0.88 from $0.85, Southern Company(NYSE:SO)to $0.66 from $0.64, Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI)to $0.27 from $0.2625 and Nasdaq(NASDAQ:NDAQ)to $0.50 from $0.49.</p><p><blockquote><b>预计股息增加（季度）：</b>预计本周股息上调包括Comfort Systems USA(NYSE：FIX)从0.1115美元上调至0.125美元，HP Enterprise(NYSE：HPE)从0.12美元上调至0.1275美元，Pool Corp(纳斯达克：POOL)从0.58美元上调至0.61美元，强生公司(NYSE：TRV)从0.85美元上调至0.88美元，南方公司(NYSE：SO)从0.64美元上调至0.66美元，金德摩根(NYSE：KMI)从0.2625美元上调至0.27美元，纳斯达克(纳斯达克：NDAQ)从0.49美元上调至0.50美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>M&amp;A tidbits:</b>&nbsp;The highly-anticipated Aphria(NASDAQ:APHA)-Tilray(NASDAQ:TLRY)merger is expected to close on April 20. The tender offer on the GenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)-Roche(OTCQX:RHHBY)deal expires on April 21. GW Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:GWPH)shareholders vote on the Jazz Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:JAZZ)deal on April 23.</p><p><blockquote><b>并购花絮：</b>备受期待的Aphria（纳斯达克：APHA）-Tilray（纳斯达克：TLRY）合并预计将于4月20日完成。GenMark Diagnostics（纳斯达克：GNMK）-罗氏（OTCQX：RHHBY）交易的要约收购将于4月21日到期。GW Pharmaceuticals（纳斯达克股票代码：GWPH）股东将于4月23日就Jazz Pharmaceuticals（纳斯达克股票代码：JAZZ）交易进行投票。</blockquote></p><p><b>ARK Invest watch:</b>&nbsp;Investors may want to keep an eye on Coinbase Global(NASDAQ:COIN)after ARK Invest came in Friday with a purchase of 19,599 shares for the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)and 112,539 shares for the ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK). Cathie Wood's firm also defended Silvergate(NYSE:SI)after its mid-week stumble likely in response to the Coinbase IPO. \"Investors potentially took profits to diversify their exposure to crypto in the public markets. \"In our view, the Silvergate Exchange Network, with its strong network effects, positions Silvergate as both a facilitator and a prime beneficiary of increased crypto adoption,\" ARK reasons.</p><p><blockquote><b>方舟投资观察：</b>在ARK Invest周五购买了19,599股ARK Fintech Innovation ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKF）和112,539股ARK Innovation ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKF）后，投资者可能需要关注Coinbase Global（纳斯达克：COIN）：ARKK）。Cathie Wood的公司还为Silvergate(NYSE：SI)进行了辩护，此前Silvergate(NYSE：SI)在周中因Coinbase IPO而出现失误。“投资者可能会获利了结，以分散他们在公开市场上对加密货币的投资。”我们认为，Silvergate交换网络凭借其强大的网络效应，使Silvergate既是加密货币采用增加的推动者，也是主要受益者，”ARK解释道。</blockquote></p><p><b>Corporate spotlight:</b>&nbsp;Major events this week include strategic updates from Advance Auto Parts(NYSE:AAP)and Royal Gold(NYSE:GOLD)on April 20, as well as investor days for Dye &amp; Durham(OTC:DYNDF)and SMART Global(NASDAQ:SGH). On April 21, MGM Resorts(NYSE:MGM)and Entain(OTCPK:GMVHF)along with their U.S. venture BetMGM will host a business update event for analysts and investors. The event will provide deeper insights into the rapidly growing U.S. sports betting and iGaming business of BetMGM. A new forecast on the industry's total addressable market could be a share price catalyst for DraftKings(NASDAQ:DKNG)and Penn National Gaming(NASDAQ:PENN)as well. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of more events to watch.</p><p><blockquote><b>企业聚焦：</b>本周的重大活动包括Advance Auto Parts(NYSE：AAP)和Royal Gold(NYSE：GOLD)4月20日的战略更新，以及Dye&amp;Durham(OTC：DYNDF)和SMART Global(纳斯达克：SGH)的投资者日。4月21日，米高梅度假村(NYSE：MGM)和Entain(OTCPK：GMVHF)及其美国合资企业BetMGM将为分析师和投资者举办业务更新活动。该活动将让人们更深入地了解BetMGM快速增长的美国体育博彩和iGaming业务。对该行业总潜在市场的新预测也可能成为DraftKings（纳斯达克：DKNG）和Penn National Gaming（纳斯达克：PENN）的股价催化剂。查看outSeeking Alpha的Catalyst Watch，了解更多值得关注的活动的详细列表。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Conferences rundown:</b>&nbsp;Notable conferences running during the week include the H.C Wainwright Spring Mining Conference, Linley Spring Processor Conference 2021, the Kempen Life Sciences Conference, the Jefferies Microbiome-based Therapeutics Summit 2021 and the Stifel GMP &amp; Stifel First Energy Canada Cross Sector Insight Conference 2021. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of events to watch.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议概要：</b>本周举行的著名会议包括H.C Wainwright春季采矿会议、2021年Linley春季处理器会议、Kempen生命科学会议、2021年Jefferies基于微生物组的治疗峰会以及2021年Stifel GMP和Stifel First Energy Canada跨部门洞察会议。查看outSeeking Alpha的Catalyst手表，了解要观看的事件的详细列表。</blockquote></p><p><b>Barron's mentions:</b>&nbsp;Disney(NYSE:DIS)makes the cover of Barron's this week as the media giant is given credit for positioning itself for post-COVID growth. Disney is said to have come out ahead after CEO Bob Chapek and team faced the severest of financial stress tests. \"When parks and theaters emptied out a year ago, costs kept rolling in, and the fastest-growing part of the business, streaming, was consuming cash—as it still is. Yet, Disney generated $3.6 billion in free cash during its fiscal year ended last September. It’s seen producing $3.3 billion this year before the numbers begin a sharp rebound,\" notes Jack Hough. While the movie business is still sputtering to restart and the TV business is seen holding steady at best, streaming results have shattered forecasts. Disney+ smashed expectations in piling up 100M in less than 18 months, compared to the 10 years it took Netflix to hit that level. Disney is targeting 300M to 350M subscribers by 2024 across all of its streaming platforms, including Hulu, ESPN+, Hotstar in India, and Star+ in Latin America (launches in June). PetIQ(NASDAQ:PETQ)and O'Reilly Automotive(NASDAQ:ORLY)also land favorable write-ups this week.</p><p><blockquote><b>《巴伦周刊》提到：</b>迪士尼（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DIS）本周登上了《巴伦周刊》的封面，这家媒体巨头因为新冠疫情后的增长做好了定位而受到赞誉。据说，在首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克和团队面临最严峻的财务压力测试后，迪士尼脱颖而出。“一年前，当公园和剧院空无一人时，成本不断滚滚而来，流媒体业务增长最快的部分正在消耗现金——现在仍然如此。然而，迪士尼在截至去年9月的财年中产生了36亿美元的自由现金。在数字开始大幅反弹之前，今年的收入为33亿美元，”杰克·霍夫指出。虽然电影业务仍在艰难重启，电视业务充其量也保持稳定，但流媒体业绩却超出了预期。Disney+在不到18个月的时间里积累了1亿美元，超出了预期，而Netflix花了10年时间才达到这一水平。迪士尼的目标是到2024年在其所有流媒体平台上拥有3亿至3.5亿用户，包括印度的Hulu、ESPN+、Hotstar和拉丁美洲的Star+（6月推出）。PetIQ（纳斯达克股票代码：PETQ）和O’Reilly Automotive（纳斯达克股票代码：ORLY）本周也获得了好评。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419571-stocks-to-watch-apple-event-disney-callout-and-earnings-blitz\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419571-stocks-to-watch-apple-event-disney-callout-and-earnings-blitz","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162662309","content_text":"Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Stocks to Watch - a preview of key events scheduled for the this week. Follow this account and turn the e-mail alert on to receive this article in your inbox every Saturday morning. A podcast of Stocks to Watch is also available on Sundays onSeeking Alpha,Apple Podcasts,StitcherandSpotify(click the highlighted links).Economic reports due out this week include the latest updates on existing home sales, new home sales, jobless claims and PMI. Big earnings reports blast in every day this week across sectors. Of note, the follow-up conference calls from Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO), Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)could be on the interesting side. On the vaccine front, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is expected to meet late this week to consider recommendations for Johnson & Johnson's(NYSE:JNJ)shot, which has been linked to rare blood clots in the brain.Earnings spotlight: Earnings season heats up in a big way with reports due in from Coca-Cola (KO), IBM(NYSE:IBM)and United Airlines(NASDAQ:UAL)on April 19; Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble(NYSE:PG), Philip Morris International(NYSE:PM), Abbott Labs(NYSE:ABT)and Netflix (NFLX) on April 20; Anthem(NYSE:ANTM), Verizon(NYSE:VZ), Chipotle(NYSE:CMG)and Lam Research(NASDAQ:LRCX)on April 21; AT&T(NYSE:T), Dow(NYSE:DOW), Intel (INTC), Seagate Tech(NASDAQ:STX)and Mattel(NASDAQ:MAT)on April 22; as well as American Express(NYSE:AXP)and Honeywell(NYSE:HON)on April 23.IPO watch: IPOs expected to start trading during the week include UiPAth (PATH), DoubleVerify (DV) and NeuroPace (NPCE) on April 20, as well as Zymergern (ZY) and KnowBe4 (KNBE) on April 22. IPO lockup periods expire on Datto Holding(NYSE:MSP), Topaz Energy(NYSE:TPZ), McAfee(NASDAQ:MCFE), Guild Holdings(NYSE:GHLD), Foghorn Therapeutics(NASDAQ:FHTX)and ComSovereign Holding(NASDAQ:COMS). The analyst quiet period expires on ThredUp(NASDAQ:TDUP)on April 20 to free up analysts to post ratings. Shares of Trip.com(NASDAQ:TRIP)will begin trading in Hong Kong this week following a new listing.Apple event: Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)holds an event on April 20 called \"Spring Loaded\" to show off new products. Information out of Cupertino has been pretty tight, but the company could reveal new iPads, new iMacs, new AirPods, AirTags, a new Apple TV and possibly a new Apple Pencil.Projected dividend increases (quarterly): Expected dividend boosts for the week include Comfort Systems USA(NYSE:FIX)to $0.125 from $0.1115, HP Enterprise(NYSE:HPE)to $0.1275 from $0.12, Pool Corp(NASDAQ:POOL)to $0.61 from $0.58, Johnson & Johnson to $1.06 from $1.01, Travelers(NYSE:TRV)to $0.88 from $0.85, Southern Company(NYSE:SO)to $0.66 from $0.64, Kinder Morgan(NYSE:KMI)to $0.27 from $0.2625 and Nasdaq(NASDAQ:NDAQ)to $0.50 from $0.49.M&A tidbits: The highly-anticipated Aphria(NASDAQ:APHA)-Tilray(NASDAQ:TLRY)merger is expected to close on April 20. The tender offer on the GenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)-Roche(OTCQX:RHHBY)deal expires on April 21. GW Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:GWPH)shareholders vote on the Jazz Pharmaceuticals(NASDAQ:JAZZ)deal on April 23.ARK Invest watch: Investors may want to keep an eye on Coinbase Global(NASDAQ:COIN)after ARK Invest came in Friday with a purchase of 19,599 shares for the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)and 112,539 shares for the ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK). Cathie Wood's firm also defended Silvergate(NYSE:SI)after its mid-week stumble likely in response to the Coinbase IPO. \"Investors potentially took profits to diversify their exposure to crypto in the public markets. \"In our view, the Silvergate Exchange Network, with its strong network effects, positions Silvergate as both a facilitator and a prime beneficiary of increased crypto adoption,\" ARK reasons.Corporate spotlight: Major events this week include strategic updates from Advance Auto Parts(NYSE:AAP)and Royal Gold(NYSE:GOLD)on April 20, as well as investor days for Dye & Durham(OTC:DYNDF)and SMART Global(NASDAQ:SGH). On April 21, MGM Resorts(NYSE:MGM)and Entain(OTCPK:GMVHF)along with their U.S. venture BetMGM will host a business update event for analysts and investors. The event will provide deeper insights into the rapidly growing U.S. sports betting and iGaming business of BetMGM. A new forecast on the industry's total addressable market could be a share price catalyst for DraftKings(NASDAQ:DKNG)and Penn National Gaming(NASDAQ:PENN)as well. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of more events to watch.Conferences rundown: Notable conferences running during the week include the H.C Wainwright Spring Mining Conference, Linley Spring Processor Conference 2021, the Kempen Life Sciences Conference, the Jefferies Microbiome-based Therapeutics Summit 2021 and the Stifel GMP & Stifel First Energy Canada Cross Sector Insight Conference 2021. Check outSeeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of events to watch.Barron's mentions: Disney(NYSE:DIS)makes the cover of Barron's this week as the media giant is given credit for positioning itself for post-COVID growth. Disney is said to have come out ahead after CEO Bob Chapek and team faced the severest of financial stress tests. \"When parks and theaters emptied out a year ago, costs kept rolling in, and the fastest-growing part of the business, streaming, was consuming cash—as it still is. Yet, Disney generated $3.6 billion in free cash during its fiscal year ended last September. It’s seen producing $3.3 billion this year before the numbers begin a sharp rebound,\" notes Jack Hough. While the movie business is still sputtering to restart and the TV business is seen holding steady at best, streaming results have shattered forecasts. Disney+ smashed expectations in piling up 100M in less than 18 months, compared to the 10 years it took Netflix to hit that level. Disney is targeting 300M to 350M subscribers by 2024 across all of its streaming platforms, including Hulu, ESPN+, Hotstar in India, and Star+ in Latin America (launches in June). PetIQ(NASDAQ:PETQ)and O'Reilly Automotive(NASDAQ:ORLY)also land favorable write-ups this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":325117652,"gmtCreate":1615875030176,"gmtModify":1703494312892,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>reading all the comments here when i bought this stock at $3.4 last year actually feels pretty good","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>reading all the comments here when i bought this stock at $3.4 last year actually feels pretty good","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$reading all the comments here when i bought this stock at $3.4 last year actually feels pretty good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325117652","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357062026,"gmtCreate":1617209597265,"gmtModify":1631888731796,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COUR\">$Coursera, Inc.(COUR)$</a>i have used this platform to learn because my university made us during lockdown. this platform is bad so i am not buying this stock despite the hype","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COUR\">$Coursera, Inc.(COUR)$</a>i have used this platform to learn because my university made us during lockdown. this platform is bad so i am not buying this stock despite the hype","text":"$Coursera, Inc.(COUR)$i have used this platform to learn because my university made us during lockdown. this platform is bad so i am not buying this stock despite the hype","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357062026","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544330455077536","authorId":"3544330455077536","name":"哟小老板皮的不谈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/897dea46aef1f77136727bff10df46ef","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3544330455077536","idStr":"3544330455077536"},"content":"To be honest i learnt the machine learning courses on it, and it left me a good impression","text":"To be honest i learnt the machine learning courses on it, and it left me a good impression","html":"To be honest i learnt the machine learning courses on it, and it left me a good impression"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350673602,"gmtCreate":1616206092806,"gmtModify":1634526741068,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comennttt","listText":"comennttt","text":"comennttt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350673602","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117450855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616166767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117450855?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”继续支持经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏“远未完成”。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔周五表示，虽然美国经济前景“一片光明”，但复苏“远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中，鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制后果的严重程度和持续时间，以避免长期损害，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，设计了对危机的快速反应，即迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率下调至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测2021年将出现强劲增长，每天都有更多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏中表示，情况“有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“但复苏远未完成，因此美联储将继续为经济提供所需的支持，只要经济需要。”</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“我真的相信，我们将从这场危机中变得更强大、更好，就像我们以前经常做的那样。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近的政策会议上再次承诺了宽松的货币政策立场，尽管预计今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济会过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.734%的收益率在年初低于1%后，本周已升至1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA在早盘交易中下跌187点，-0.71%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324727767,"gmtCreate":1616032863759,"gmtModify":1703496636100,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls comment on mine","listText":"pls comment on mine","text":"pls comment on mine","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324727767","repostId":"1182257169","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360131651,"gmtCreate":1613867485273,"gmtModify":1634552036490,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nio overvalued","listText":"nio overvalued","text":"nio overvalued","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360131651","repostId":"1143100356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807279882,"gmtCreate":1628041177546,"gmtModify":1631890661614,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"iooo","listText":"iooo","text":"iooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807279882","repostId":"1160773280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160773280","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628040319,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160773280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 09:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why An S&P 500 Buyback Boom Could Be Just Around The Corner<blockquote>为什么标普500回购热潮即将来临</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160773280","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Analysts are expecting S&P 500 earnings to surge 40.7% in 2021 off of extremely easy pandemic comps.","content":"<p>Analysts are expecting S&amp;P 500 earnings to surge 40.7% in 2021 off of extremely easy pandemic comps. On Tuesday, DataTrek Research co-founder&nbsp;<b>Nicholas Colas</b>&nbsp;said one of the impacts of that burst of earnings growth will likely be a huge increase in S&amp;P 500 share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，标普500 2021年的盈利将在极其轻松的疫情比较中飙升40.7%。周二，DataTrek Research联合创始人<b>尼古拉斯·科拉斯</b>表示，盈利爆发式增长的影响之一可能是标普500股票回购的大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Numbers:</b>Prior to the pandemic, S&amp;P 500 companies reported $1.305 billion in 2019 net operating profits. About $485 billion of those profits (37%) went to dividends, while $729 billion (56%) went to stock buybacks.</p><p><blockquote><b>数字：</b>在疫情之前，标普500公司报告2019年净营业利润为13.05亿美元。其中约4850亿美元（37%）用于股息，7290亿美元（56%）用于股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> In 2018 and 2019, 99% and 93% of S&amp;P 500 net operating profits went to either dividends or buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>2018年和2019年，标普500净营业利润的99%和93%用于股息或回购。</blockquote></p><p> “With S&amp;P earnings now 23 percent higher than 2018-19 ($162/share then, $200/share now), we should expect to see many companies in the index dramatically increase their return of cash to shareholders over the rest of 2021 and into 2022,” Colas said.</p><p><blockquote>“由于标准普尔目前的盈利比2018-19年高出23%（当时为162美元/股，现在为200美元/股），我们应该预计该指数中的许多公司将在2021年剩余时间和2022年大幅增加对股东的现金回报，”科拉斯说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks Over Dividends:</b>&nbsp;Colas&nbsp;said investors should anticipate companies will prioritize buybacks over dividends in the current climate given the uncertainties that lie ahead in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote><b>股息回购：</b>Colas表示，鉴于2022年及以后的不确定性，投资者应该预计，在当前环境下，公司将优先考虑回购而不是股息。</blockquote></p><p> Investors tend to react more negatively to dividend cuts than a pause in buybacks in the event of another economic downturn, so he&nbsp;said investors should expect a relatively high percentage of excess profits to go to buybacks for now.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对削减股息的反应往往比在经济再次下滑时暂停回购更消极，因此他表示，投资者目前应该预计相对较高比例的超额利润将用于回购。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of 2021, S&amp;P 500 companies were buying back stock at an annual run rate of about $712 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，标普500公司回购股票的年增长率约为7120亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> If they were to return to 2018 and 2019 levels based on&nbsp;updated earnings expectations, they would be buying back stock at around a $1-trillion annual run rate, Colas said. In other words, investors can expect at least an additional $250 billion per quarter in buybacks over the next several quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Colas表示，如果他们根据更新的盈利预期恢复到2018年和2019年的水平，他们将以每年约1万亿美元的运行速度回购股票。换句话说，投资者预计未来几个季度每季度至少会有2500亿美元的额外回购。</blockquote></p><p> More buybacks are generally good news overall for the&nbsp;<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</b>(NYSE:SPY), but simply returning to pre-pandemic levels of capital returns isn’t a particularly bullish catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，更多的回购对于<b>SPDR标普500 ETF信托</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF），但简单地恢复到大流行前的资本回报水平并不是特别看涨的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> “A large increase in stock buybacks is therefore certainly good, but not great, news for US equities,” Colas said.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示：“因此，股票回购的大幅增加对美国股市来说当然是好消息，但不是好消息。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Investors should understand a potential surge in buybacks will impact some marketsectors&nbsp;far more than others. In fact, Colas said the Technology and Financialsectors alone have accounted for 52% of all S&amp;P 500 share buybacks over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga的看法：</b>投资者应该明白，回购的潜在激增对某些市场板块的影响将远远大于其他市场板块。事实上，科拉斯表示，过去五年，仅科技和金融行业就占标普500所有股票回购的52%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why An S&P 500 Buyback Boom Could Be Just Around The Corner<blockquote>为什么标普500回购热潮即将来临</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy An S&P 500 Buyback Boom Could Be Just Around The Corner<blockquote>为什么标普500回购热潮即将来临</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-04 09:25</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Analysts are expecting S&amp;P 500 earnings to surge 40.7% in 2021 off of extremely easy pandemic comps. On Tuesday, DataTrek Research co-founder&nbsp;<b>Nicholas Colas</b>&nbsp;said one of the impacts of that burst of earnings growth will likely be a huge increase in S&amp;P 500 share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，标普500 2021年的盈利将在极其轻松的疫情比较中飙升40.7%。周二，DataTrek Research联合创始人<b>尼古拉斯·科拉斯</b>表示，盈利爆发式增长的影响之一可能是标普500股票回购的大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Numbers:</b>Prior to the pandemic, S&amp;P 500 companies reported $1.305 billion in 2019 net operating profits. About $485 billion of those profits (37%) went to dividends, while $729 billion (56%) went to stock buybacks.</p><p><blockquote><b>数字：</b>在疫情之前，标普500公司报告2019年净营业利润为13.05亿美元。其中约4850亿美元（37%）用于股息，7290亿美元（56%）用于股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> In 2018 and 2019, 99% and 93% of S&amp;P 500 net operating profits went to either dividends or buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>2018年和2019年，标普500净营业利润的99%和93%用于股息或回购。</blockquote></p><p> “With S&amp;P earnings now 23 percent higher than 2018-19 ($162/share then, $200/share now), we should expect to see many companies in the index dramatically increase their return of cash to shareholders over the rest of 2021 and into 2022,” Colas said.</p><p><blockquote>“由于标准普尔目前的盈利比2018-19年高出23%（当时为162美元/股，现在为200美元/股），我们应该预计该指数中的许多公司将在2021年剩余时间和2022年大幅增加对股东的现金回报，”科拉斯说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks Over Dividends:</b>&nbsp;Colas&nbsp;said investors should anticipate companies will prioritize buybacks over dividends in the current climate given the uncertainties that lie ahead in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote><b>股息回购：</b>Colas表示，鉴于2022年及以后的不确定性，投资者应该预计，在当前环境下，公司将优先考虑回购而不是股息。</blockquote></p><p> Investors tend to react more negatively to dividend cuts than a pause in buybacks in the event of another economic downturn, so he&nbsp;said investors should expect a relatively high percentage of excess profits to go to buybacks for now.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对削减股息的反应往往比在经济再次下滑时暂停回购更消极，因此他表示，投资者目前应该预计相对较高比例的超额利润将用于回购。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of 2021, S&amp;P 500 companies were buying back stock at an annual run rate of about $712 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，标普500公司回购股票的年增长率约为7120亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> If they were to return to 2018 and 2019 levels based on&nbsp;updated earnings expectations, they would be buying back stock at around a $1-trillion annual run rate, Colas said. In other words, investors can expect at least an additional $250 billion per quarter in buybacks over the next several quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Colas表示，如果他们根据更新的盈利预期恢复到2018年和2019年的水平，他们将以每年约1万亿美元的运行速度回购股票。换句话说，投资者预计未来几个季度每季度至少会有2500亿美元的额外回购。</blockquote></p><p> More buybacks are generally good news overall for the&nbsp;<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</b>(NYSE:SPY), but simply returning to pre-pandemic levels of capital returns isn’t a particularly bullish catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，更多的回购对于<b>SPDR标普500 ETF信托</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF），但简单地恢复到大流行前的资本回报水平并不是特别看涨的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> “A large increase in stock buybacks is therefore certainly good, but not great, news for US equities,” Colas said.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示：“因此，股票回购的大幅增加对美国股市来说当然是好消息，但不是好消息。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Investors should understand a potential surge in buybacks will impact some marketsectors&nbsp;far more than others. In fact, Colas said the Technology and Financialsectors alone have accounted for 52% of all S&amp;P 500 share buybacks over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga的看法：</b>投资者应该明白，回购的潜在激增对某些市场板块的影响将远远大于其他市场板块。事实上，科拉斯表示，过去五年，仅科技和金融行业就占标普500所有股票回购的52%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160773280","content_text":"Analysts are expecting S&P 500 earnings to surge 40.7% in 2021 off of extremely easy pandemic comps. On Tuesday, DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said one of the impacts of that burst of earnings growth will likely be a huge increase in S&P 500 share buybacks.\nThe Numbers:Prior to the pandemic, S&P 500 companies reported $1.305 billion in 2019 net operating profits. About $485 billion of those profits (37%) went to dividends, while $729 billion (56%) went to stock buybacks.\nIn 2018 and 2019, 99% and 93% of S&P 500 net operating profits went to either dividends or buybacks.\n“With S&P earnings now 23 percent higher than 2018-19 ($162/share then, $200/share now), we should expect to see many companies in the index dramatically increase their return of cash to shareholders over the rest of 2021 and into 2022,” Colas said.\nBuybacks Over Dividends: Colas said investors should anticipate companies will prioritize buybacks over dividends in the current climate given the uncertainties that lie ahead in 2022 and beyond.\nInvestors tend to react more negatively to dividend cuts than a pause in buybacks in the event of another economic downturn, so he said investors should expect a relatively high percentage of excess profits to go to buybacks for now.\nIn the first quarter of 2021, S&P 500 companies were buying back stock at an annual run rate of about $712 billion.\nIf they were to return to 2018 and 2019 levels based on updated earnings expectations, they would be buying back stock at around a $1-trillion annual run rate, Colas said. In other words, investors can expect at least an additional $250 billion per quarter in buybacks over the next several quarters.\nMore buybacks are generally good news overall for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(NYSE:SPY), but simply returning to pre-pandemic levels of capital returns isn’t a particularly bullish catalyst.\n“A large increase in stock buybacks is therefore certainly good, but not great, news for US equities,” Colas said.\nBenzinga’s Take:Investors should understand a potential surge in buybacks will impact some marketsectors far more than others. In fact, Colas said the Technology and Financialsectors alone have accounted for 52% of all S&P 500 share buybacks over the past five years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346626371,"gmtCreate":1618033329993,"gmtModify":1634295118036,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nvrr","listText":"nvrr","text":"nvrr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346626371","repostId":"2126038125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145076865,"gmtCreate":1626184769257,"gmtModify":1631890661625,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"LOL when u don’t understand what Palantir does and just post an article with a paper brain but anyways cheers when palantir goes up, this article will age well","listText":"LOL when u don’t understand what Palantir does and just post an article with a paper brain but anyways cheers when palantir goes up, this article will age well","text":"LOL when u don’t understand what Palantir does and just post an article with a paper brain but anyways cheers when palantir goes up, this article will age well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145076865","repostId":"1126488208","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379782501,"gmtCreate":1618795419903,"gmtModify":1634290887984,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379782501","repostId":"1141323038","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379171108,"gmtCreate":1618710853504,"gmtModify":1634291337223,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379171108","repostId":"1151923129","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151923129","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618581789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151923129?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bionano Genomics fell about 10% in Friday morning  trading<blockquote>Bionano Genomics周五早盘下跌约10%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151923129","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(April 16) Bionano Genomics fell about 10% in Friday morning trading.\nThere's a genomics revolution ","content":"<p>(April 16)&nbsp;Bionano Genomics&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in Friday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（4月16日）Bionano Genomics周五早盘下跌约10%。</blockquote></p><p> There's a genomics revolution underway right now. Surprisingly, though, only one pure-play genomics stock is in the top 100 most popular list on Robinhood. That lone ranger is<b>Bionano Genomics</b>(NASDAQ:BNGO). The stock has been a major winner so far this year, with Bionano's shares vaulting 108% higher.</p><p><blockquote>一场基因组学革命正在进行。但令人惊讶的是，只有一只纯基因组学股票出现在Robinhood上最受欢迎的前100名名单中。那个独行侠是<b>生物纳米基因组学</b>（纳斯达克：BNGO）。今年迄今为止，该股一直是主要赢家，Bionano股价飙升108%。</blockquote></p><p> Bionano had generated even bigger gains earlier in 2021. By mid-February, the stock had more than quintupled year to date. However, a shift away from high-flying growth stocks caused Bionano's share price to tumble over the last couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano在2021年初取得了更大的收益。截至2月中旬，该股今年迄今已上涨五倍多。然而，从高速增长股票的转变导致Bionano的股价在过去几个月内暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors remain enthusiastic about the company's prospects. Bionanobeat analysts' Q4 revenue expectations. It expects to soon win accreditation in select European markets for Saphyr-based laboratory-developed tests for acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) and facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD). The genomics testing company also thinks that it will have 150 Saphyr gene-sequencing systems installed by the end of this year, which would represent a 50% increase year over year.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者仍然对该公司的前景充满热情。Bionanobeat分析师第四季度收入预期。它预计很快将在选定的欧洲市场赢得基于Saphyr的实验室开发的急性淋巴细胞白血病（ALL）和面肩肱肌营养不良症（FSHD）测试的认证。这家基因组测试公司还认为，到今年年底，它将安装150个Saphyr基因测序系统，同比增长50%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6d3a8298b2b720b7b4ddcf26507750\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"500\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bionano Genomics fell about 10% in Friday morning  trading<blockquote>Bionano Genomics周五早盘下跌约10%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBionano Genomics fell about 10% in Friday morning  trading<blockquote>Bionano Genomics周五早盘下跌约10%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-16 22:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 16)&nbsp;Bionano Genomics&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in Friday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（4月16日）Bionano Genomics周五早盘下跌约10%。</blockquote></p><p> There's a genomics revolution underway right now. Surprisingly, though, only one pure-play genomics stock is in the top 100 most popular list on Robinhood. That lone ranger is<b>Bionano Genomics</b>(NASDAQ:BNGO). The stock has been a major winner so far this year, with Bionano's shares vaulting 108% higher.</p><p><blockquote>一场基因组学革命正在进行。但令人惊讶的是，只有一只纯基因组学股票出现在Robinhood上最受欢迎的前100名名单中。那个独行侠是<b>生物纳米基因组学</b>（纳斯达克：BNGO）。今年迄今为止，该股一直是主要赢家，Bionano股价飙升108%。</blockquote></p><p> Bionano had generated even bigger gains earlier in 2021. By mid-February, the stock had more than quintupled year to date. However, a shift away from high-flying growth stocks caused Bionano's share price to tumble over the last couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>Bionano在2021年初取得了更大的收益。截至2月中旬，该股今年迄今已上涨五倍多。然而，从高速增长股票的转变导致Bionano的股价在过去几个月内暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors remain enthusiastic about the company's prospects. Bionanobeat analysts' Q4 revenue expectations. It expects to soon win accreditation in select European markets for Saphyr-based laboratory-developed tests for acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) and facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD). The genomics testing company also thinks that it will have 150 Saphyr gene-sequencing systems installed by the end of this year, which would represent a 50% increase year over year.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者仍然对该公司的前景充满热情。Bionanobeat分析师第四季度收入预期。它预计很快将在选定的欧洲市场赢得基于Saphyr的实验室开发的急性淋巴细胞白血病（ALL）和面肩肱肌营养不良症（FSHD）测试的认证。这家基因组测试公司还认为，到今年年底，它将安装150个Saphyr基因测序系统，同比增长50%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6d3a8298b2b720b7b4ddcf26507750\" tg-width=\"708\" tg-height=\"500\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNGO":"Bionano Genomics"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151923129","content_text":"(April 16) Bionano Genomics fell about 10% in Friday morning trading.\nThere's a genomics revolution underway right now. Surprisingly, though, only one pure-play genomics stock is in the top 100 most popular list on Robinhood. That lone ranger isBionano Genomics(NASDAQ:BNGO). The stock has been a major winner so far this year, with Bionano's shares vaulting 108% higher.\nBionano had generated even bigger gains earlier in 2021. By mid-February, the stock had more than quintupled year to date. However, a shift away from high-flying growth stocks caused Bionano's share price to tumble over the last couple of months.\nMany investors remain enthusiastic about the company's prospects. Bionanobeat analysts' Q4 revenue expectations. It expects to soon win accreditation in select European markets for Saphyr-based laboratory-developed tests for acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) and facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD). The genomics testing company also thinks that it will have 150 Saphyr gene-sequencing systems installed by the end of this year, which would represent a 50% increase year over year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNGO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344738197,"gmtCreate":1618442571719,"gmtModify":1634292963421,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344738197","repostId":"1186263067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186263067","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618413153,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186263067?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-14 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman rose 5% as it reported a massive jump in Q1 profit<blockquote>高盛报告第一季度利润大幅增长，股价上涨5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186263067","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(April 14) Goldman rose 5% as it reported a massive jump in Q1 profit. capitalizing on record levels","content":"<p>(April 14)&nbsp;Goldman rose 5% as it reported a massive jump in Q1 profit. capitalizing on record levels of global dealmaking activity.</p><p><blockquote>（4月14日）高盛股价上涨5%，报告第一季度利润大幅增长。利用创纪录水平的全球交易活动。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ada8ae44bbee095ccb5cda335bd2ead\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman rose 5% as it reported a massive jump in Q1 profit<blockquote>高盛报告第一季度利润大幅增长，股价上涨5%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman rose 5% as it reported a massive jump in Q1 profit<blockquote>高盛报告第一季度利润大幅增长，股价上涨5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-14 23:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 14)&nbsp;Goldman rose 5% as it reported a massive jump in Q1 profit. capitalizing on record levels of global dealmaking activity.</p><p><blockquote>（4月14日）高盛股价上涨5%，报告第一季度利润大幅增长。利用创纪录水平的全球交易活动。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ada8ae44bbee095ccb5cda335bd2ead\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186263067","content_text":"(April 14) Goldman rose 5% as it reported a massive jump in Q1 profit. capitalizing on record levels of global dealmaking activity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342375408,"gmtCreate":1618188329804,"gmtModify":1634294573853,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oh","listText":"oh","text":"oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342375408","repostId":"1172606078","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346626119,"gmtCreate":1618033340031,"gmtModify":1634295117913,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"necer","listText":"necer","text":"necer","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346626119","repostId":"2126315033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343758642,"gmtCreate":1617757433986,"gmtModify":1634296707413,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"noce","listText":"noce","text":"noce","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343758642","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893997610,"gmtCreate":1628227179930,"gmtModify":1631890661593,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893997610","repostId":"1188253337","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188253337","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628216944,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188253337?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 10:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Can Rise Another 6% This Year, Goldman Sachs Says. Why It’s So Upbeat.<blockquote>高盛表示，标普500今年可能再上涨6%。为什么这么乐观。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188253337","media":"Barrons","summary":"Goldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&P 500, saying corporate earnings have been t","content":"<p>Goldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&amp;P 500, saying corporate earnings have been too strong to ignore and that bond yields are remaining stubbornly low.</p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师上调了标普500的目标，称企业盈利强劲，不容忽视，债券收益率仍居高不下。</blockquote></p><p> The investment bank now says the market benchmark could reach 4700 by year-end, up from its previous call of 4300. That implies a gain of just over 6% from the index’s current level.</p><p><blockquote>该投资银行现在表示，到年底，市场基准可能会达到4700点，高于之前4300点的看涨期权。这意味着该指数较当前水平上涨略高于6%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the main factors behind the more upbeat view is that second-quarter earnings are coming in far higher than expected, exceeding expectations&nbsp;by historically wide margins. The Goldman strategists now expect aggregate earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 will be $207 this year, up from a previous forecast of $193. For 2022, they are expecting aggregate EPS of $212, up from $202.</p><p><blockquote>更为乐观的观点背后的主要因素之一是第二季度盈利远高于预期，超出预期的幅度为历史上较大。高盛策略师目前预计，标普500公司今年的每股总收益将为207美元，高于此前预测的193美元。他们预计2022年总每股收益为212美元，高于202美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecasts represent respective year-over-year growth of 45% and 2%, as pent-up demand drives this year’s profits past 2019 levels, before growth moderates in 2022. The strategists incorporated a corporate tax-rate increase into their 2022 profit projection, reducing it slightly.</p><p><blockquote>预测分别为45%和2%的同比增长，因为被压抑的需求推动今年的利润超过2019年的水平，然后增长将在2022年放缓。策略师将企业税率上调纳入2022年利润预测中，并略有降低。</blockquote></p><p> The other key consideration is that valuations could remain fairly high because&nbsp;bond yields remain low. Goldman sees stocks in the index trading at an average of 22.1 times the per-share earnings expected for the 2022, slightly higher than the current 21 times. Low bond yields reduce the appeal of investing in fixed-income securities, as well as increasing the current value of future profits.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是，由于债券收益率仍然较低，估值可能仍然相当高。高盛预计该指数股票的平均交易价格是2022年每股收益预期的22.1倍，略高于目前的21倍。低债券收益率降低了投资固定收益证券的吸引力，也增加了未来利润的现值。</blockquote></p><p> “Lower interest rates than expected support a stable forward P/E multiple of 22x,” wrote David Kostin, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin写道：“低于预期的利率支撑了22倍的稳定预期市盈率。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists lowered their forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.6% from 1.9% by year-end. Yields are now at 1.2%, even as inflation expectations have risen and some market participants have seen buying the debt as a good trade.</p><p><blockquote>策略师将年底前10年期国债收益率预期从1.9%下调至1.6%。尽管通胀预期上升，一些市场参与者认为购买债券是一笔不错的交易，但收益率目前仍为1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>I</b>nflation is expected to be a bit over 2% for the long term, according to St. Louis Fed data, and bond investors usually demand a return greater than the rate of inflation. But the 10-year Treasury yield has remained far below expected inflation, even after a period during which some investors were&nbsp;piling into the debt, sending the price up and the yield down.</p><p><blockquote><b>我</b>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，长期通胀率预计将略高于2%，债券投资者通常要求高于通胀率的回报。但10年期国债收益率仍远低于预期通胀，即使在一些投资者大量买入债券导致价格上涨和收益率下降的一段时间之后。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s 2021 target for the S&amp;P 500 implies an earnings yield for stocks that would be 3 percentage points higher than what investors can get from bonds at 1.6%. And that makes stock valuations look reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>高盛2021年标普500目标意味着股票收益率将比投资者从债券中获得的1.6%高出3个百分点。这使得股票估值看起来合理。</blockquote></p><p> The current Goldilocks environment—a sturdy economy, but with low bond yields—is keeping stocks in favor.</p><p><blockquote>当前的金发姑娘环境——经济强劲，但债券收益率较低——使股市受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Can Rise Another 6% This Year, Goldman Sachs Says. Why It’s So Upbeat.<blockquote>高盛表示，标普500今年可能再上涨6%。为什么这么乐观。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Can Rise Another 6% This Year, Goldman Sachs Says. Why It’s So Upbeat.<blockquote>高盛表示，标普500今年可能再上涨6%。为什么这么乐观。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 10:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Goldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&amp;P 500, saying corporate earnings have been too strong to ignore and that bond yields are remaining stubbornly low.</p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师上调了标普500的目标，称企业盈利强劲，不容忽视，债券收益率仍居高不下。</blockquote></p><p> The investment bank now says the market benchmark could reach 4700 by year-end, up from its previous call of 4300. That implies a gain of just over 6% from the index’s current level.</p><p><blockquote>该投资银行现在表示，到年底，市场基准可能会达到4700点，高于之前4300点的看涨期权。这意味着该指数较当前水平上涨略高于6%。</blockquote></p><p> One of the main factors behind the more upbeat view is that second-quarter earnings are coming in far higher than expected, exceeding expectations&nbsp;by historically wide margins. The Goldman strategists now expect aggregate earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 will be $207 this year, up from a previous forecast of $193. For 2022, they are expecting aggregate EPS of $212, up from $202.</p><p><blockquote>更为乐观的观点背后的主要因素之一是第二季度盈利远高于预期，超出预期的幅度为历史上较大。高盛策略师目前预计，标普500公司今年的每股总收益将为207美元，高于此前预测的193美元。他们预计2022年总每股收益为212美元，高于202美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecasts represent respective year-over-year growth of 45% and 2%, as pent-up demand drives this year’s profits past 2019 levels, before growth moderates in 2022. The strategists incorporated a corporate tax-rate increase into their 2022 profit projection, reducing it slightly.</p><p><blockquote>预测分别为45%和2%的同比增长，因为被压抑的需求推动今年的利润超过2019年的水平，然后增长将在2022年放缓。策略师将企业税率上调纳入2022年利润预测中，并略有降低。</blockquote></p><p> The other key consideration is that valuations could remain fairly high because&nbsp;bond yields remain low. Goldman sees stocks in the index trading at an average of 22.1 times the per-share earnings expected for the 2022, slightly higher than the current 21 times. Low bond yields reduce the appeal of investing in fixed-income securities, as well as increasing the current value of future profits.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是，由于债券收益率仍然较低，估值可能仍然相当高。高盛预计该指数股票的平均交易价格是2022年每股收益预期的22.1倍，略高于目前的21倍。低债券收益率降低了投资固定收益证券的吸引力，也增加了未来利润的现值。</blockquote></p><p> “Lower interest rates than expected support a stable forward P/E multiple of 22x,” wrote David Kostin, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist.</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席美国股票策略师David Kostin写道：“低于预期的利率支撑了22倍的稳定预期市盈率。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists lowered their forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.6% from 1.9% by year-end. Yields are now at 1.2%, even as inflation expectations have risen and some market participants have seen buying the debt as a good trade.</p><p><blockquote>策略师将年底前10年期国债收益率预期从1.9%下调至1.6%。尽管通胀预期上升，一些市场参与者认为购买债券是一笔不错的交易，但收益率目前仍为1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>I</b>nflation is expected to be a bit over 2% for the long term, according to St. Louis Fed data, and bond investors usually demand a return greater than the rate of inflation. But the 10-year Treasury yield has remained far below expected inflation, even after a period during which some investors were&nbsp;piling into the debt, sending the price up and the yield down.</p><p><blockquote><b>我</b>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，长期通胀率预计将略高于2%，债券投资者通常要求高于通胀率的回报。但10年期国债收益率仍远低于预期通胀，即使在一些投资者大量买入债券导致价格上涨和收益率下降的一段时间之后。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s 2021 target for the S&amp;P 500 implies an earnings yield for stocks that would be 3 percentage points higher than what investors can get from bonds at 1.6%. And that makes stock valuations look reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>高盛2021年标普500目标意味着股票收益率将比投资者从债券中获得的1.6%高出3个百分点。这使得股票估值看起来合理。</blockquote></p><p> The current Goldilocks environment—a sturdy economy, but with low bond yields—is keeping stocks in favor.</p><p><blockquote>当前的金发姑娘环境——经济强劲，但债券收益率较低——使股市受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-sp-500-more-gains-goldman-sachs-51628182610?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-sp-500-more-gains-goldman-sachs-51628182610?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188253337","content_text":"Goldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&P 500, saying corporate earnings have been too strong to ignore and that bond yields are remaining stubbornly low.\nThe investment bank now says the market benchmark could reach 4700 by year-end, up from its previous call of 4300. That implies a gain of just over 6% from the index’s current level.\nOne of the main factors behind the more upbeat view is that second-quarter earnings are coming in far higher than expected, exceeding expectations by historically wide margins. The Goldman strategists now expect aggregate earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 will be $207 this year, up from a previous forecast of $193. For 2022, they are expecting aggregate EPS of $212, up from $202.\nThe forecasts represent respective year-over-year growth of 45% and 2%, as pent-up demand drives this year’s profits past 2019 levels, before growth moderates in 2022. The strategists incorporated a corporate tax-rate increase into their 2022 profit projection, reducing it slightly.\nThe other key consideration is that valuations could remain fairly high because bond yields remain low. Goldman sees stocks in the index trading at an average of 22.1 times the per-share earnings expected for the 2022, slightly higher than the current 21 times. Low bond yields reduce the appeal of investing in fixed-income securities, as well as increasing the current value of future profits.\n“Lower interest rates than expected support a stable forward P/E multiple of 22x,” wrote David Kostin, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist.\nThe strategists lowered their forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.6% from 1.9% by year-end. Yields are now at 1.2%, even as inflation expectations have risen and some market participants have seen buying the debt as a good trade.\nInflation is expected to be a bit over 2% for the long term, according to St. Louis Fed data, and bond investors usually demand a return greater than the rate of inflation. But the 10-year Treasury yield has remained far below expected inflation, even after a period during which some investors were piling into the debt, sending the price up and the yield down.\nGoldman’s 2021 target for the S&P 500 implies an earnings yield for stocks that would be 3 percentage points higher than what investors can get from bonds at 1.6%. And that makes stock valuations look reasonable.\nThe current Goldilocks environment—a sturdy economy, but with low bond yields—is keeping stocks in favor.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344055143,"gmtCreate":1618362308782,"gmtModify":1634293478708,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oh","listText":"oh","text":"oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344055143","repostId":"1176504888","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340687271,"gmtCreate":1617406923893,"gmtModify":1634521125161,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"lol","listText":"lol","text":"lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340687271","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324727593,"gmtCreate":1616032846812,"gmtModify":1703496635415,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"please comment on my pos","listText":"please comment on my pos","text":"please comment on my pos","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324727593","repostId":"2120131417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325599186,"gmtCreate":1615904884545,"gmtModify":1703494843773,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Alex Karp speaking now!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Alex Karp speaking now!!!","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Alex Karp speaking now!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325599186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":870191245,"gmtCreate":1636591730079,"gmtModify":1636591730182,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573384476205285","idStr":"3573384476205285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a>tomorrow burst???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a>tomorrow burst???","text":"$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$tomorrow burst???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba8e4ee715f956a389cd613b3cf6896","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870191245","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}