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HitnRun
2021-06-16
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HitnRun
2021-02-09
Correction incoming
US stocks are in a bubble, and it's unclear when it will pop, hedge fund manager says<blockquote>对冲基金经理表示，美国股市正处于泡沫之中，尚不清楚何时会破裂</blockquote>
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incoming ","listText":"Correction incoming ","text":"Correction incoming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383205320","repostId":"1107682656","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107682656","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612851008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107682656?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 14:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US stocks are in a bubble, and it's unclear when it will pop, hedge fund manager says<blockquote>对冲基金经理表示，美国股市正处于泡沫之中，尚不清楚何时会破裂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107682656","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.\nThe","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business) </b>The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>股市的V型复苏势头强劲。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 is now 75% higher than its low point last March. The Nasdaq has more than doubled since its pandemic low. Tesla shares are up a staggering 900% over that span. And an army of traders on Reddit were able tosend GameStop to the moon, at least for a few days.</p><p><blockquote>标普500现在比去年3月的低点高出75%。自大流行低点以来，纳斯达克已经上涨了一倍多。在此期间，特斯拉股价上涨了惊人的900%。Reddit上的一大群交易者能够将游戏驿站送上月球，至少持续几天。</blockquote></p><p> Although there is good reason for optimism about the economy and the pandemic, some fear themarket euphoria is getting out of hand-- yet it's impossible to time the bubble's burst.</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们有充分理由对经济和疫情保持乐观，但有些担忧市场的兴旺情绪正在失控——然而，泡沫破裂的时间不可能及时。</blockquote></p><p> \"I do think we are in a bubble like we were in 2000,\" veteran hedge fund manager Mark Yusko told CNN Business. \"That doesn't mean that tomorrow the market is going to crash.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我确实认为我们正处于像2000年一样的泡沫之中，”资深对冲基金经理马克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko)告诉CNN Business。“这并不意味着明天市场就会崩溃。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko, the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, pointed to signs of extreme market speculation, such as the 1,625% spike forGameStop(GME)in January.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Creek Capital Management首席执行官尤斯科指出了市场极端投机的迹象，例如GameStop(GME)1月份飙升1,625%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Equity markets broadly are in bubble territory. Look at the parabolic moves by a number of companies like Tesla,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“股市总体上处于泡沫区域。看看特斯拉等许多公司的抛物线走势，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (TSLA) shares gained another 2% Monday after the company announced it is investing $1.5 billion in bitcoin and will begin accepting the cryptocurrency for payment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉(TSLA)宣布将向比特币投资15亿美元并将开始接受加密货币支付后，该公司股价周一又上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko also pointed to howApple's (AAPL) annual net income has barely budged over the past five years. But per-share earnings, which drive share prices, have climbed sharply because the iPhone maker has aggressively repurchased its shares.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科还指出，苹果公司(AAPL)的年度净利润在过去五年中几乎没有变化。但由于这家iPhone制造商积极回购股票，推动股价的每股收益大幅攀升。</blockquote></p><p> \"That's just financial engineering,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是金融工程，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Impossible to time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>无法计时</b></blockquote></p><p> Another exhibit in Yusko's bubble case is Snowflake. The money-losing cloud computing company, which went public in September, is trading at 327 times revenue, according to data provider Refinitiv. That's well above what even Zoom (ZM) and DocuSign (DOCU) trade at.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科泡泡盒中的另一件展品是雪花。根据数据提供商Refinitiv的数据，这家亏损的云计算公司于9月份上市，目前的交易价格是收入的327倍。这甚至远高于Zoom(ZM)和DocuSign(DOCU)的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko's bubble warning echoes ones made in recent weeks by other well-known market players.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科的泡沫警告与其他知名市场参与者最近几周发出的警告相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> Last month famed investor Jeremy Grantham said the bull market that began in 2009 had \"matured into a full-fledged epic bubble\"marked by \" extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor behavior.\"</p><p><blockquote>上个月，著名投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)表示，始于2009年的牛市已经“成熟为一场成熟的史诗般的泡沫”，其特点是“估值极度高估、价格爆炸性上涨、疯狂发行和歇斯底里的投机投资者行为”。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can time when a bubble will pop. And overheated markets can get much hotter before finally cooling off.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能确定泡沫何时会破裂。过热的市场在最终降温之前可能会变得更热。</blockquote></p><p> \"The challenge with extreme valuations is they can go on longer than you think,\" Yusko said.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科说：“极端估值的挑战在于，它们的持续时间可能比你想象的要长。”</blockquote></p><p> And Yusko has been overly bearish before. Two years ago, he warned that the stock market was overvalued and tech stocks in particular would fall sharply. Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 40% since then — despite the worst pandemic in a century.</p><p><blockquote>而尤斯科此前也曾过度看空。两年前，他警告称股市被高估，尤其是科技股将大幅下跌。然而，自那时以来，标普500上涨了40%以上——尽管疫情是一个世纪以来最严重的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley: Get on board or get out of the way</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利：要么加入，要么让开</b></blockquote></p><p> While Yusko and Grantham are sounding the alarm, some major Wall Street firms remain very optimistic on the economy and the stock market. They point to the persistence of rock-bottom interest rates that have forced investors to bet on stocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然尤斯科和格兰瑟姆敲响了警钟，但一些华尔街大公司仍然对经济和股市非常乐观。他们指出，最低利率的持续存在迫使投资者押注股票。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs upgraded its forecasts for second-quarter 2021 and 2022 GDP on Monday because of a sense that Democrats will pass a significantly larger relief package than previously anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>高盛周一上调了对2021年第二季度和2022年GDP的预测，因为人们认为民主党将通过一项比此前预期大得多的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to climb to 4,300 by year end, up about 11% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛预计标普500到年底将攀升至4,300点，较当前水平上涨约11%。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Wilson, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, thinks the stock market's Reddit-driven scare is already firmly in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊认为，股市由Reddit引发的恐慌已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> \"It appears that greed once again has the upper hand over fear and the bull market is ready to resume in earnest,\" Wilson wrote in a note to clients Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊周日在给客户的一份报告中写道：“贪婪似乎再次战胜了恐惧，牛市已准备好认真恢复。”</blockquote></p><p> After suffering its worst week since October, the S&P 500 rapidly regained its losses last week, spiking 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了10月份以来最糟糕的一周后，标普500上周迅速收复失地，飙升4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Even though Wilson has recently called out signs of complacency and extreme risk, he is warning his clients not to fight this market rally.</p><p><blockquote>尽管威尔逊最近指出了自满和极端风险的迹象，但他警告客户不要对抗这次市场反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"The prevailing view of better economic growth, more fiscal stimulus to come and continued money printing from the fed has everyone 'all in,'\" Wilson wrote. \"When such periods occur, it's rarely been easy or wise to get in the way. Instead, these trends typically need to run their course until they are derailed or simply exhausted.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道：“人们普遍认为经济增长更好、即将出台更多财政刺激措施以及美联储继续印钞，这让每个人都‘全力以赴’。”“当这样的时期发生时，阻碍很少是容易或明智的。相反，这些趋势通常需要顺其自然，直到脱轨或干脆筋疲力尽。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPAC mania</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPAC狂热</b></blockquote></p><p> Even Yusko, the Morgan Creek hedge fund manager, is diving headfirst into one area of market speculation: SPAC mania.</p><p><blockquote>就连摩根溪对冲基金经理尤斯科也一头扎进了市场投机的一个领域：SPAC狂热。</blockquote></p><p> Special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are shells with no operating assets that exist purely to take private companies public. Virgin Galactic, DraftKings and Nikola have all gone public this way instead of a traditional IPO.Even former baseball superstar Alex Rodriguez is trying to raise $500 million through a SPAC called Slam Corp.</p><p><blockquote>特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）是没有运营资产的空壳，纯粹是为了让私营公司上市而存在的。维珍银河、DraftKings和Nikola都以这种方式上市，而不是传统的IPO。就连前棒球巨星A·罗德里格兹也试图通过一家名为Slam Corp的特殊目的收购公司筹集5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Late last month, Yusko launched Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF, a fund that will target pre- and post-merger SPACs with an equal weight approach.</p><p><blockquote>上月底，Yusko推出了Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF，该基金将以同等权重的方式瞄准合并前和合并后的SPAC。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But some argue SPACs are more evidence of bubble-like behavior on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>但一些人认为SPAC更多地证明了华尔街的泡沫行为。</blockquote></p><p> SPACs are \"an invitation to give me your money and I'll let you know one day what I'm going to do with it,\" Grantham recently told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>格兰瑟姆最近对CNBC表示，SPAC是“邀请你把钱给我，有一天我会让你知道我要用它做什么”。</blockquote></p><p> During the first three weeks of 2021 alone, SPACs raised $16 billion, surpassing the $13 billion that was raised in all of 2019, according to Goldman Sachs.</p><p><blockquote>根据高盛的数据，仅在2021年前三周，SPAC就筹集了160亿美元，超过了2019年全年筹集的130亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bubble-like sentiment surrounds SPACs,\" Goldman Sachs analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师表示：“SPAC周围弥漫着泡沫般的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko disagreed with that sentiment and suggested the criticism from Goldman Sachs is convenient because the Wall Street bank relies on traditional IPOs for a chunk of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科不同意这种观点，并表示高盛的批评很方便，因为这家华尔街银行的大部分收入依赖于传统的IPO。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's intellectually lazy to make that statement,\" he said. \"Saying SPACs are the problem is like saying hedge funds or mutual funds are the problem. It's just a legal structure.\"</p><p><blockquote>“发表这样的声明在智力上是懒惰的，”他说。“说SPAC是问题就像说对冲基金或共同基金是问题一样。这只是一个法律结构。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko said SPACs are cheaper, more flexible and a smarter way to raise money than traditional IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>Yusko表示，与传统IPO相比，SPAC更便宜、更灵活，是一种更聪明的融资方式。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike the other two SPAC ETFs that have recently launched, Yusko's fund is actively managed. That's critical, he said, because not all SPACs will be winners, especially given the loftiness of current market valuations.</p><p><blockquote>与最近推出的另外两只SPAC ETF不同，Yusko的基金是主动管理的。他表示，这一点至关重要，因为并非所有SPAC都会成为赢家，特别是考虑到当前市场估值很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are in an environment,\" Yusko said, \"where we believe caution is warranted.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们所处的环境，”尤斯科说，“我们认为有必要保持谨慎。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks are in a bubble, and it's unclear when it will pop, hedge fund manager says<blockquote>对冲基金经理表示，美国股市正处于泡沫之中，尚不清楚何时会破裂</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks are in a bubble, and it's unclear when it will pop, hedge fund manager says<blockquote>对冲基金经理表示，美国股市正处于泡沫之中，尚不清楚何时会破裂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-09 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business) </b>The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>股市的V型复苏势头强劲。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 is now 75% higher than its low point last March. The Nasdaq has more than doubled since its pandemic low. Tesla shares are up a staggering 900% over that span. And an army of traders on Reddit were able tosend GameStop to the moon, at least for a few days.</p><p><blockquote>标普500现在比去年3月的低点高出75%。自大流行低点以来，纳斯达克已经上涨了一倍多。在此期间，特斯拉股价上涨了惊人的900%。Reddit上的一大群交易者能够将游戏驿站送上月球，至少持续几天。</blockquote></p><p> Although there is good reason for optimism about the economy and the pandemic, some fear themarket euphoria is getting out of hand-- yet it's impossible to time the bubble's burst.</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们有充分理由对经济和疫情保持乐观，但有些担忧市场的兴旺情绪正在失控——然而，泡沫破裂的时间不可能及时。</blockquote></p><p> \"I do think we are in a bubble like we were in 2000,\" veteran hedge fund manager Mark Yusko told CNN Business. \"That doesn't mean that tomorrow the market is going to crash.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我确实认为我们正处于像2000年一样的泡沫之中，”资深对冲基金经理马克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko)告诉CNN Business。“这并不意味着明天市场就会崩溃。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko, the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, pointed to signs of extreme market speculation, such as the 1,625% spike forGameStop(GME)in January.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Creek Capital Management首席执行官尤斯科指出了市场极端投机的迹象，例如GameStop(GME)1月份飙升1,625%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Equity markets broadly are in bubble territory. Look at the parabolic moves by a number of companies like Tesla,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“股市总体上处于泡沫区域。看看特斯拉等许多公司的抛物线走势，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (TSLA) shares gained another 2% Monday after the company announced it is investing $1.5 billion in bitcoin and will begin accepting the cryptocurrency for payment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉(TSLA)宣布将向比特币投资15亿美元并将开始接受加密货币支付后，该公司股价周一又上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko also pointed to howApple's (AAPL) annual net income has barely budged over the past five years. But per-share earnings, which drive share prices, have climbed sharply because the iPhone maker has aggressively repurchased its shares.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科还指出，苹果公司(AAPL)的年度净利润在过去五年中几乎没有变化。但由于这家iPhone制造商积极回购股票，推动股价的每股收益大幅攀升。</blockquote></p><p> \"That's just financial engineering,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是金融工程，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Impossible to time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>无法计时</b></blockquote></p><p> Another exhibit in Yusko's bubble case is Snowflake. The money-losing cloud computing company, which went public in September, is trading at 327 times revenue, according to data provider Refinitiv. That's well above what even Zoom (ZM) and DocuSign (DOCU) trade at.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科泡泡盒中的另一件展品是雪花。根据数据提供商Refinitiv的数据，这家亏损的云计算公司于9月份上市，目前的交易价格是收入的327倍。这甚至远高于Zoom(ZM)和DocuSign(DOCU)的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko's bubble warning echoes ones made in recent weeks by other well-known market players.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科的泡沫警告与其他知名市场参与者最近几周发出的警告相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> Last month famed investor Jeremy Grantham said the bull market that began in 2009 had \"matured into a full-fledged epic bubble\"marked by \" extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor behavior.\"</p><p><blockquote>上个月，著名投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)表示，始于2009年的牛市已经“成熟为一场成熟的史诗般的泡沫”，其特点是“估值极度高估、价格爆炸性上涨、疯狂发行和歇斯底里的投机投资者行为”。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can time when a bubble will pop. And overheated markets can get much hotter before finally cooling off.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能确定泡沫何时会破裂。过热的市场在最终降温之前可能会变得更热。</blockquote></p><p> \"The challenge with extreme valuations is they can go on longer than you think,\" Yusko said.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科说：“极端估值的挑战在于，它们的持续时间可能比你想象的要长。”</blockquote></p><p> And Yusko has been overly bearish before. Two years ago, he warned that the stock market was overvalued and tech stocks in particular would fall sharply. Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 40% since then — despite the worst pandemic in a century.</p><p><blockquote>而尤斯科此前也曾过度看空。两年前，他警告称股市被高估，尤其是科技股将大幅下跌。然而，自那时以来，标普500上涨了40%以上——尽管疫情是一个世纪以来最严重的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley: Get on board or get out of the way</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利：要么加入，要么让开</b></blockquote></p><p> While Yusko and Grantham are sounding the alarm, some major Wall Street firms remain very optimistic on the economy and the stock market. They point to the persistence of rock-bottom interest rates that have forced investors to bet on stocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然尤斯科和格兰瑟姆敲响了警钟，但一些华尔街大公司仍然对经济和股市非常乐观。他们指出，最低利率的持续存在迫使投资者押注股票。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs upgraded its forecasts for second-quarter 2021 and 2022 GDP on Monday because of a sense that Democrats will pass a significantly larger relief package than previously anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>高盛周一上调了对2021年第二季度和2022年GDP的预测，因为人们认为民主党将通过一项比此前预期大得多的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to climb to 4,300 by year end, up about 11% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛预计标普500到年底将攀升至4,300点，较当前水平上涨约11%。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Wilson, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, thinks the stock market's Reddit-driven scare is already firmly in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊认为，股市由Reddit引发的恐慌已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> \"It appears that greed once again has the upper hand over fear and the bull market is ready to resume in earnest,\" Wilson wrote in a note to clients Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊周日在给客户的一份报告中写道：“贪婪似乎再次战胜了恐惧，牛市已准备好认真恢复。”</blockquote></p><p> After suffering its worst week since October, the S&P 500 rapidly regained its losses last week, spiking 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了10月份以来最糟糕的一周后，标普500上周迅速收复失地，飙升4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Even though Wilson has recently called out signs of complacency and extreme risk, he is warning his clients not to fight this market rally.</p><p><blockquote>尽管威尔逊最近指出了自满和极端风险的迹象，但他警告客户不要对抗这次市场反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"The prevailing view of better economic growth, more fiscal stimulus to come and continued money printing from the fed has everyone 'all in,'\" Wilson wrote. \"When such periods occur, it's rarely been easy or wise to get in the way. Instead, these trends typically need to run their course until they are derailed or simply exhausted.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道：“人们普遍认为经济增长更好、即将出台更多财政刺激措施以及美联储继续印钞，这让每个人都‘全力以赴’。”“当这样的时期发生时，阻碍很少是容易或明智的。相反，这些趋势通常需要顺其自然，直到脱轨或干脆筋疲力尽。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPAC mania</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPAC狂热</b></blockquote></p><p> Even Yusko, the Morgan Creek hedge fund manager, is diving headfirst into one area of market speculation: SPAC mania.</p><p><blockquote>就连摩根溪对冲基金经理尤斯科也一头扎进了市场投机的一个领域：SPAC狂热。</blockquote></p><p> Special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are shells with no operating assets that exist purely to take private companies public. Virgin Galactic, DraftKings and Nikola have all gone public this way instead of a traditional IPO.Even former baseball superstar Alex Rodriguez is trying to raise $500 million through a SPAC called Slam Corp.</p><p><blockquote>特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）是没有运营资产的空壳，纯粹是为了让私营公司上市而存在的。维珍银河、DraftKings和Nikola都以这种方式上市，而不是传统的IPO。就连前棒球巨星A·罗德里格兹也试图通过一家名为Slam Corp的特殊目的收购公司筹集5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Late last month, Yusko launched Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF, a fund that will target pre- and post-merger SPACs with an equal weight approach.</p><p><blockquote>上月底，Yusko推出了Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF，该基金将以同等权重的方式瞄准合并前和合并后的SPAC。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But some argue SPACs are more evidence of bubble-like behavior on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>但一些人认为SPAC更多地证明了华尔街的泡沫行为。</blockquote></p><p> SPACs are \"an invitation to give me your money and I'll let you know one day what I'm going to do with it,\" Grantham recently told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>格兰瑟姆最近对CNBC表示，SPAC是“邀请你把钱给我，有一天我会让你知道我要用它做什么”。</blockquote></p><p> During the first three weeks of 2021 alone, SPACs raised $16 billion, surpassing the $13 billion that was raised in all of 2019, according to Goldman Sachs.</p><p><blockquote>根据高盛的数据，仅在2021年前三周，SPAC就筹集了160亿美元，超过了2019年全年筹集的130亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bubble-like sentiment surrounds SPACs,\" Goldman Sachs analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师表示：“SPAC周围弥漫着泡沫般的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko disagreed with that sentiment and suggested the criticism from Goldman Sachs is convenient because the Wall Street bank relies on traditional IPOs for a chunk of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科不同意这种观点，并表示高盛的批评很方便，因为这家华尔街银行的大部分收入依赖于传统的IPO。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's intellectually lazy to make that statement,\" he said. \"Saying SPACs are the problem is like saying hedge funds or mutual funds are the problem. It's just a legal structure.\"</p><p><blockquote>“发表这样的声明在智力上是懒惰的，”他说。“说SPAC是问题就像说对冲基金或共同基金是问题一样。这只是一个法律结构。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko said SPACs are cheaper, more flexible and a smarter way to raise money than traditional IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>Yusko表示，与传统IPO相比，SPAC更便宜、更灵活，是一种更聪明的融资方式。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike the other two SPAC ETFs that have recently launched, Yusko's fund is actively managed. That's critical, he said, because not all SPACs will be winners, especially given the loftiness of current market valuations.</p><p><blockquote>与最近推出的另外两只SPAC ETF不同，Yusko的基金是主动管理的。他表示，这一点至关重要，因为并非所有SPAC都会成为赢家，特别是考虑到当前市场估值很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are in an environment,\" Yusko said, \"where we believe caution is warranted.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们所处的环境，”尤斯科说，“我们认为有必要保持谨慎。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/08/investing/wall-street-market-bubble-yusko/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ZM":"Zoom","GME":"游戏驿站","TSLA":"特斯拉",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/08/investing/wall-street-market-bubble-yusko/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107682656","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.\nThe S&P 500 is now 75% higher than its low point last March. The Nasdaq has more than doubled since its pandemic low. Tesla shares are up a staggering 900% over that span. And an army of traders on Reddit were able tosend GameStop to the moon, at least for a few days.\nAlthough there is good reason for optimism about the economy and the pandemic, some fear themarket euphoria is getting out of hand-- yet it's impossible to time the bubble's burst.\n\"I do think we are in a bubble like we were in 2000,\" veteran hedge fund manager Mark Yusko told CNN Business. \"That doesn't mean that tomorrow the market is going to crash.\"\nYusko, the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, pointed to signs of extreme market speculation, such as the 1,625% spike forGameStop(GME)in January.\n\"Equity markets broadly are in bubble territory. Look at the parabolic moves by a number of companies like Tesla,\" he said.\nTesla (TSLA) shares gained another 2% Monday after the company announced it is investing $1.5 billion in bitcoin and will begin accepting the cryptocurrency for payment.\nYusko also pointed to howApple's (AAPL) annual net income has barely budged over the past five years. But per-share earnings, which drive share prices, have climbed sharply because the iPhone maker has aggressively repurchased its shares.\n\"That's just financial engineering,\" he said.\nImpossible to time\nAnother exhibit in Yusko's bubble case is Snowflake. The money-losing cloud computing company, which went public in September, is trading at 327 times revenue, according to data provider Refinitiv. That's well above what even Zoom (ZM) and DocuSign (DOCU) trade at.\nYusko's bubble warning echoes ones made in recent weeks by other well-known market players.\nLast month famed investor Jeremy Grantham said the bull market that began in 2009 had \"matured into a full-fledged epic bubble\"marked by \" extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor behavior.\"\nOf course, no one can time when a bubble will pop. And overheated markets can get much hotter before finally cooling off.\n\"The challenge with extreme valuations is they can go on longer than you think,\" Yusko said.\nAnd Yusko has been overly bearish before. Two years ago, he warned that the stock market was overvalued and tech stocks in particular would fall sharply. Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 40% since then — despite the worst pandemic in a century.\nMorgan Stanley: Get on board or get out of the way\nWhile Yusko and Grantham are sounding the alarm, some major Wall Street firms remain very optimistic on the economy and the stock market. They point to the persistence of rock-bottom interest rates that have forced investors to bet on stocks.\nGoldman Sachs upgraded its forecasts for second-quarter 2021 and 2022 GDP on Monday because of a sense that Democrats will pass a significantly larger relief package than previously anticipated.\nMeanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to climb to 4,300 by year end, up about 11% from current levels.\nMichael Wilson, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, thinks the stock market's Reddit-driven scare is already firmly in the rearview mirror.\n\"It appears that greed once again has the upper hand over fear and the bull market is ready to resume in earnest,\" Wilson wrote in a note to clients Sunday.\nAfter suffering its worst week since October, the S&P 500 rapidly regained its losses last week, spiking 4.7%.\nEven though Wilson has recently called out signs of complacency and extreme risk, he is warning his clients not to fight this market rally.\n\"The prevailing view of better economic growth, more fiscal stimulus to come and continued money printing from the fed has everyone 'all in,'\" Wilson wrote. \"When such periods occur, it's rarely been easy or wise to get in the way. Instead, these trends typically need to run their course until they are derailed or simply exhausted.\"\nSPAC mania\nEven Yusko, the Morgan Creek hedge fund manager, is diving headfirst into one area of market speculation: SPAC mania.\nSpecial purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are shells with no operating assets that exist purely to take private companies public. Virgin Galactic, DraftKings and Nikola have all gone public this way instead of a traditional IPO.Even former baseball superstar Alex Rodriguez is trying to raise $500 million through a SPAC called Slam Corp.\nLate last month, Yusko launched Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF, a fund that will target pre- and post-merger SPACs with an equal weight approach.\nBut some argue SPACs are more evidence of bubble-like behavior on Wall Street.\nSPACs are \"an invitation to give me your money and I'll let you know one day what I'm going to do with it,\" Grantham recently told CNBC.\nDuring the first three weeks of 2021 alone, SPACs raised $16 billion, surpassing the $13 billion that was raised in all of 2019, according to Goldman Sachs.\n\"Bubble-like sentiment surrounds SPACs,\" Goldman Sachs analysts said.\nYusko disagreed with that sentiment and suggested the criticism from Goldman Sachs is convenient because the Wall Street bank relies on traditional IPOs for a chunk of its revenue.\n\"It's intellectually lazy to make that statement,\" he said. \"Saying SPACs are the problem is like saying hedge funds or mutual funds are the problem. It's just a legal structure.\"\nYusko said SPACs are cheaper, more flexible and a smarter way to raise money than traditional IPOs.\nUnlike the other two SPAC ETFs that have recently launched, Yusko's fund is actively managed. That's critical, he said, because not all SPACs will be winners, especially given the loftiness of current market valuations.\n\"We are in an environment,\" Yusko said, \"where we believe caution is warranted.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"GME":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ZM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":383205320,"gmtCreate":1612879421160,"gmtModify":1703766192425,"author":{"id":"3574661238242016","authorId":"3574661238242016","name":"HitnRun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574661238242016","idStr":"3574661238242016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Correction incoming ","listText":"Correction incoming ","text":"Correction incoming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383205320","repostId":"1107682656","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107682656","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612851008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107682656?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 14:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US stocks are in a bubble, and it's unclear when it will pop, hedge fund manager says<blockquote>对冲基金经理表示，美国股市正处于泡沫之中，尚不清楚何时会破裂</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107682656","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.\nThe","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business) </b>The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>股市的V型复苏势头强劲。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 is now 75% higher than its low point last March. The Nasdaq has more than doubled since its pandemic low. Tesla shares are up a staggering 900% over that span. And an army of traders on Reddit were able tosend GameStop to the moon, at least for a few days.</p><p><blockquote>标普500现在比去年3月的低点高出75%。自大流行低点以来，纳斯达克已经上涨了一倍多。在此期间，特斯拉股价上涨了惊人的900%。Reddit上的一大群交易者能够将游戏驿站送上月球，至少持续几天。</blockquote></p><p> Although there is good reason for optimism about the economy and the pandemic, some fear themarket euphoria is getting out of hand-- yet it's impossible to time the bubble's burst.</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们有充分理由对经济和疫情保持乐观，但有些担忧市场的兴旺情绪正在失控——然而，泡沫破裂的时间不可能及时。</blockquote></p><p> \"I do think we are in a bubble like we were in 2000,\" veteran hedge fund manager Mark Yusko told CNN Business. \"That doesn't mean that tomorrow the market is going to crash.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我确实认为我们正处于像2000年一样的泡沫之中，”资深对冲基金经理马克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko)告诉CNN Business。“这并不意味着明天市场就会崩溃。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko, the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, pointed to signs of extreme market speculation, such as the 1,625% spike forGameStop(GME)in January.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Creek Capital Management首席执行官尤斯科指出了市场极端投机的迹象，例如GameStop(GME)1月份飙升1,625%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Equity markets broadly are in bubble territory. Look at the parabolic moves by a number of companies like Tesla,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“股市总体上处于泡沫区域。看看特斯拉等许多公司的抛物线走势，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (TSLA) shares gained another 2% Monday after the company announced it is investing $1.5 billion in bitcoin and will begin accepting the cryptocurrency for payment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉(TSLA)宣布将向比特币投资15亿美元并将开始接受加密货币支付后，该公司股价周一又上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko also pointed to howApple's (AAPL) annual net income has barely budged over the past five years. But per-share earnings, which drive share prices, have climbed sharply because the iPhone maker has aggressively repurchased its shares.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科还指出，苹果公司(AAPL)的年度净利润在过去五年中几乎没有变化。但由于这家iPhone制造商积极回购股票，推动股价的每股收益大幅攀升。</blockquote></p><p> \"That's just financial engineering,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是金融工程，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Impossible to time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>无法计时</b></blockquote></p><p> Another exhibit in Yusko's bubble case is Snowflake. The money-losing cloud computing company, which went public in September, is trading at 327 times revenue, according to data provider Refinitiv. That's well above what even Zoom (ZM) and DocuSign (DOCU) trade at.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科泡泡盒中的另一件展品是雪花。根据数据提供商Refinitiv的数据，这家亏损的云计算公司于9月份上市，目前的交易价格是收入的327倍。这甚至远高于Zoom(ZM)和DocuSign(DOCU)的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko's bubble warning echoes ones made in recent weeks by other well-known market players.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科的泡沫警告与其他知名市场参与者最近几周发出的警告相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> Last month famed investor Jeremy Grantham said the bull market that began in 2009 had \"matured into a full-fledged epic bubble\"marked by \" extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor behavior.\"</p><p><blockquote>上个月，著名投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)表示，始于2009年的牛市已经“成熟为一场成熟的史诗般的泡沫”，其特点是“估值极度高估、价格爆炸性上涨、疯狂发行和歇斯底里的投机投资者行为”。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can time when a bubble will pop. And overheated markets can get much hotter before finally cooling off.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能确定泡沫何时会破裂。过热的市场在最终降温之前可能会变得更热。</blockquote></p><p> \"The challenge with extreme valuations is they can go on longer than you think,\" Yusko said.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科说：“极端估值的挑战在于，它们的持续时间可能比你想象的要长。”</blockquote></p><p> And Yusko has been overly bearish before. Two years ago, he warned that the stock market was overvalued and tech stocks in particular would fall sharply. Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 40% since then — despite the worst pandemic in a century.</p><p><blockquote>而尤斯科此前也曾过度看空。两年前，他警告称股市被高估，尤其是科技股将大幅下跌。然而，自那时以来，标普500上涨了40%以上——尽管疫情是一个世纪以来最严重的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley: Get on board or get out of the way</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利：要么加入，要么让开</b></blockquote></p><p> While Yusko and Grantham are sounding the alarm, some major Wall Street firms remain very optimistic on the economy and the stock market. They point to the persistence of rock-bottom interest rates that have forced investors to bet on stocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然尤斯科和格兰瑟姆敲响了警钟，但一些华尔街大公司仍然对经济和股市非常乐观。他们指出，最低利率的持续存在迫使投资者押注股票。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs upgraded its forecasts for second-quarter 2021 and 2022 GDP on Monday because of a sense that Democrats will pass a significantly larger relief package than previously anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>高盛周一上调了对2021年第二季度和2022年GDP的预测，因为人们认为民主党将通过一项比此前预期大得多的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to climb to 4,300 by year end, up about 11% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛预计标普500到年底将攀升至4,300点，较当前水平上涨约11%。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Wilson, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, thinks the stock market's Reddit-driven scare is already firmly in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊认为，股市由Reddit引发的恐慌已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> \"It appears that greed once again has the upper hand over fear and the bull market is ready to resume in earnest,\" Wilson wrote in a note to clients Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊周日在给客户的一份报告中写道：“贪婪似乎再次战胜了恐惧，牛市已准备好认真恢复。”</blockquote></p><p> After suffering its worst week since October, the S&P 500 rapidly regained its losses last week, spiking 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了10月份以来最糟糕的一周后，标普500上周迅速收复失地，飙升4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Even though Wilson has recently called out signs of complacency and extreme risk, he is warning his clients not to fight this market rally.</p><p><blockquote>尽管威尔逊最近指出了自满和极端风险的迹象，但他警告客户不要对抗这次市场反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"The prevailing view of better economic growth, more fiscal stimulus to come and continued money printing from the fed has everyone 'all in,'\" Wilson wrote. \"When such periods occur, it's rarely been easy or wise to get in the way. Instead, these trends typically need to run their course until they are derailed or simply exhausted.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道：“人们普遍认为经济增长更好、即将出台更多财政刺激措施以及美联储继续印钞，这让每个人都‘全力以赴’。”“当这样的时期发生时，阻碍很少是容易或明智的。相反，这些趋势通常需要顺其自然，直到脱轨或干脆筋疲力尽。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPAC mania</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPAC狂热</b></blockquote></p><p> Even Yusko, the Morgan Creek hedge fund manager, is diving headfirst into one area of market speculation: SPAC mania.</p><p><blockquote>就连摩根溪对冲基金经理尤斯科也一头扎进了市场投机的一个领域：SPAC狂热。</blockquote></p><p> Special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are shells with no operating assets that exist purely to take private companies public. Virgin Galactic, DraftKings and Nikola have all gone public this way instead of a traditional IPO.Even former baseball superstar Alex Rodriguez is trying to raise $500 million through a SPAC called Slam Corp.</p><p><blockquote>特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）是没有运营资产的空壳，纯粹是为了让私营公司上市而存在的。维珍银河、DraftKings和Nikola都以这种方式上市，而不是传统的IPO。就连前棒球巨星A·罗德里格兹也试图通过一家名为Slam Corp的特殊目的收购公司筹集5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Late last month, Yusko launched Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF, a fund that will target pre- and post-merger SPACs with an equal weight approach.</p><p><blockquote>上月底，Yusko推出了Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF，该基金将以同等权重的方式瞄准合并前和合并后的SPAC。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But some argue SPACs are more evidence of bubble-like behavior on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>但一些人认为SPAC更多地证明了华尔街的泡沫行为。</blockquote></p><p> SPACs are \"an invitation to give me your money and I'll let you know one day what I'm going to do with it,\" Grantham recently told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>格兰瑟姆最近对CNBC表示，SPAC是“邀请你把钱给我，有一天我会让你知道我要用它做什么”。</blockquote></p><p> During the first three weeks of 2021 alone, SPACs raised $16 billion, surpassing the $13 billion that was raised in all of 2019, according to Goldman Sachs.</p><p><blockquote>根据高盛的数据，仅在2021年前三周，SPAC就筹集了160亿美元，超过了2019年全年筹集的130亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bubble-like sentiment surrounds SPACs,\" Goldman Sachs analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师表示：“SPAC周围弥漫着泡沫般的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko disagreed with that sentiment and suggested the criticism from Goldman Sachs is convenient because the Wall Street bank relies on traditional IPOs for a chunk of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科不同意这种观点，并表示高盛的批评很方便，因为这家华尔街银行的大部分收入依赖于传统的IPO。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's intellectually lazy to make that statement,\" he said. \"Saying SPACs are the problem is like saying hedge funds or mutual funds are the problem. It's just a legal structure.\"</p><p><blockquote>“发表这样的声明在智力上是懒惰的，”他说。“说SPAC是问题就像说对冲基金或共同基金是问题一样。这只是一个法律结构。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko said SPACs are cheaper, more flexible and a smarter way to raise money than traditional IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>Yusko表示，与传统IPO相比，SPAC更便宜、更灵活，是一种更聪明的融资方式。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike the other two SPAC ETFs that have recently launched, Yusko's fund is actively managed. That's critical, he said, because not all SPACs will be winners, especially given the loftiness of current market valuations.</p><p><blockquote>与最近推出的另外两只SPAC ETF不同，Yusko的基金是主动管理的。他表示，这一点至关重要，因为并非所有SPAC都会成为赢家，特别是考虑到当前市场估值很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are in an environment,\" Yusko said, \"where we believe caution is warranted.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们所处的环境，”尤斯科说，“我们认为有必要保持谨慎。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks are in a bubble, and it's unclear when it will pop, hedge fund manager says<blockquote>对冲基金经理表示，美国股市正处于泡沫之中，尚不清楚何时会破裂</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks are in a bubble, and it's unclear when it will pop, hedge fund manager says<blockquote>对冲基金经理表示，美国股市正处于泡沫之中，尚不清楚何时会破裂</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-09 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business) </b>The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>股市的V型复苏势头强劲。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 is now 75% higher than its low point last March. The Nasdaq has more than doubled since its pandemic low. Tesla shares are up a staggering 900% over that span. And an army of traders on Reddit were able tosend GameStop to the moon, at least for a few days.</p><p><blockquote>标普500现在比去年3月的低点高出75%。自大流行低点以来，纳斯达克已经上涨了一倍多。在此期间，特斯拉股价上涨了惊人的900%。Reddit上的一大群交易者能够将游戏驿站送上月球，至少持续几天。</blockquote></p><p> Although there is good reason for optimism about the economy and the pandemic, some fear themarket euphoria is getting out of hand-- yet it's impossible to time the bubble's burst.</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们有充分理由对经济和疫情保持乐观，但有些担忧市场的兴旺情绪正在失控——然而，泡沫破裂的时间不可能及时。</blockquote></p><p> \"I do think we are in a bubble like we were in 2000,\" veteran hedge fund manager Mark Yusko told CNN Business. \"That doesn't mean that tomorrow the market is going to crash.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我确实认为我们正处于像2000年一样的泡沫之中，”资深对冲基金经理马克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko)告诉CNN Business。“这并不意味着明天市场就会崩溃。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko, the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, pointed to signs of extreme market speculation, such as the 1,625% spike forGameStop(GME)in January.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Creek Capital Management首席执行官尤斯科指出了市场极端投机的迹象，例如GameStop(GME)1月份飙升1,625%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Equity markets broadly are in bubble territory. Look at the parabolic moves by a number of companies like Tesla,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“股市总体上处于泡沫区域。看看特斯拉等许多公司的抛物线走势，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (TSLA) shares gained another 2% Monday after the company announced it is investing $1.5 billion in bitcoin and will begin accepting the cryptocurrency for payment.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉(TSLA)宣布将向比特币投资15亿美元并将开始接受加密货币支付后，该公司股价周一又上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko also pointed to howApple's (AAPL) annual net income has barely budged over the past five years. But per-share earnings, which drive share prices, have climbed sharply because the iPhone maker has aggressively repurchased its shares.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科还指出，苹果公司(AAPL)的年度净利润在过去五年中几乎没有变化。但由于这家iPhone制造商积极回购股票，推动股价的每股收益大幅攀升。</blockquote></p><p> \"That's just financial engineering,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是金融工程，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Impossible to time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>无法计时</b></blockquote></p><p> Another exhibit in Yusko's bubble case is Snowflake. The money-losing cloud computing company, which went public in September, is trading at 327 times revenue, according to data provider Refinitiv. That's well above what even Zoom (ZM) and DocuSign (DOCU) trade at.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科泡泡盒中的另一件展品是雪花。根据数据提供商Refinitiv的数据，这家亏损的云计算公司于9月份上市，目前的交易价格是收入的327倍。这甚至远高于Zoom(ZM)和DocuSign(DOCU)的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Yusko's bubble warning echoes ones made in recent weeks by other well-known market players.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科的泡沫警告与其他知名市场参与者最近几周发出的警告相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> Last month famed investor Jeremy Grantham said the bull market that began in 2009 had \"matured into a full-fledged epic bubble\"marked by \" extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor behavior.\"</p><p><blockquote>上个月，著名投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)表示，始于2009年的牛市已经“成熟为一场成熟的史诗般的泡沫”，其特点是“估值极度高估、价格爆炸性上涨、疯狂发行和歇斯底里的投机投资者行为”。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can time when a bubble will pop. And overheated markets can get much hotter before finally cooling off.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能确定泡沫何时会破裂。过热的市场在最终降温之前可能会变得更热。</blockquote></p><p> \"The challenge with extreme valuations is they can go on longer than you think,\" Yusko said.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科说：“极端估值的挑战在于，它们的持续时间可能比你想象的要长。”</blockquote></p><p> And Yusko has been overly bearish before. Two years ago, he warned that the stock market was overvalued and tech stocks in particular would fall sharply. Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 40% since then — despite the worst pandemic in a century.</p><p><blockquote>而尤斯科此前也曾过度看空。两年前，他警告称股市被高估，尤其是科技股将大幅下跌。然而，自那时以来，标普500上涨了40%以上——尽管疫情是一个世纪以来最严重的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley: Get on board or get out of the way</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利：要么加入，要么让开</b></blockquote></p><p> While Yusko and Grantham are sounding the alarm, some major Wall Street firms remain very optimistic on the economy and the stock market. They point to the persistence of rock-bottom interest rates that have forced investors to bet on stocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然尤斯科和格兰瑟姆敲响了警钟，但一些华尔街大公司仍然对经济和股市非常乐观。他们指出，最低利率的持续存在迫使投资者押注股票。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs upgraded its forecasts for second-quarter 2021 and 2022 GDP on Monday because of a sense that Democrats will pass a significantly larger relief package than previously anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>高盛周一上调了对2021年第二季度和2022年GDP的预测，因为人们认为民主党将通过一项比此前预期大得多的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to climb to 4,300 by year end, up about 11% from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛预计标普500到年底将攀升至4,300点，较当前水平上涨约11%。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Wilson, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, thinks the stock market's Reddit-driven scare is already firmly in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊认为，股市由Reddit引发的恐慌已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> \"It appears that greed once again has the upper hand over fear and the bull market is ready to resume in earnest,\" Wilson wrote in a note to clients Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊周日在给客户的一份报告中写道：“贪婪似乎再次战胜了恐惧，牛市已准备好认真恢复。”</blockquote></p><p> After suffering its worst week since October, the S&P 500 rapidly regained its losses last week, spiking 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了10月份以来最糟糕的一周后，标普500上周迅速收复失地，飙升4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Even though Wilson has recently called out signs of complacency and extreme risk, he is warning his clients not to fight this market rally.</p><p><blockquote>尽管威尔逊最近指出了自满和极端风险的迹象，但他警告客户不要对抗这次市场反弹。</blockquote></p><p> \"The prevailing view of better economic growth, more fiscal stimulus to come and continued money printing from the fed has everyone 'all in,'\" Wilson wrote. \"When such periods occur, it's rarely been easy or wise to get in the way. Instead, these trends typically need to run their course until they are derailed or simply exhausted.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道：“人们普遍认为经济增长更好、即将出台更多财政刺激措施以及美联储继续印钞，这让每个人都‘全力以赴’。”“当这样的时期发生时，阻碍很少是容易或明智的。相反，这些趋势通常需要顺其自然，直到脱轨或干脆筋疲力尽。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPAC mania</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPAC狂热</b></blockquote></p><p> Even Yusko, the Morgan Creek hedge fund manager, is diving headfirst into one area of market speculation: SPAC mania.</p><p><blockquote>就连摩根溪对冲基金经理尤斯科也一头扎进了市场投机的一个领域：SPAC狂热。</blockquote></p><p> Special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are shells with no operating assets that exist purely to take private companies public. Virgin Galactic, DraftKings and Nikola have all gone public this way instead of a traditional IPO.Even former baseball superstar Alex Rodriguez is trying to raise $500 million through a SPAC called Slam Corp.</p><p><blockquote>特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）是没有运营资产的空壳，纯粹是为了让私营公司上市而存在的。维珍银河、DraftKings和Nikola都以这种方式上市，而不是传统的IPO。就连前棒球巨星A·罗德里格兹也试图通过一家名为Slam Corp的特殊目的收购公司筹集5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Late last month, Yusko launched Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF, a fund that will target pre- and post-merger SPACs with an equal weight approach.</p><p><blockquote>上月底，Yusko推出了Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF，该基金将以同等权重的方式瞄准合并前和合并后的SPAC。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But some argue SPACs are more evidence of bubble-like behavior on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>但一些人认为SPAC更多地证明了华尔街的泡沫行为。</blockquote></p><p> SPACs are \"an invitation to give me your money and I'll let you know one day what I'm going to do with it,\" Grantham recently told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>格兰瑟姆最近对CNBC表示，SPAC是“邀请你把钱给我，有一天我会让你知道我要用它做什么”。</blockquote></p><p> During the first three weeks of 2021 alone, SPACs raised $16 billion, surpassing the $13 billion that was raised in all of 2019, according to Goldman Sachs.</p><p><blockquote>根据高盛的数据，仅在2021年前三周，SPAC就筹集了160亿美元，超过了2019年全年筹集的130亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bubble-like sentiment surrounds SPACs,\" Goldman Sachs analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师表示：“SPAC周围弥漫着泡沫般的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko disagreed with that sentiment and suggested the criticism from Goldman Sachs is convenient because the Wall Street bank relies on traditional IPOs for a chunk of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尤斯科不同意这种观点，并表示高盛的批评很方便，因为这家华尔街银行的大部分收入依赖于传统的IPO。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's intellectually lazy to make that statement,\" he said. \"Saying SPACs are the problem is like saying hedge funds or mutual funds are the problem. It's just a legal structure.\"</p><p><blockquote>“发表这样的声明在智力上是懒惰的，”他说。“说SPAC是问题就像说对冲基金或共同基金是问题一样。这只是一个法律结构。”</blockquote></p><p> Yusko said SPACs are cheaper, more flexible and a smarter way to raise money than traditional IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>Yusko表示，与传统IPO相比，SPAC更便宜、更灵活，是一种更聪明的融资方式。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike the other two SPAC ETFs that have recently launched, Yusko's fund is actively managed. That's critical, he said, because not all SPACs will be winners, especially given the loftiness of current market valuations.</p><p><blockquote>与最近推出的另外两只SPAC ETF不同，Yusko的基金是主动管理的。他表示，这一点至关重要，因为并非所有SPAC都会成为赢家，特别是考虑到当前市场估值很高。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are in an environment,\" Yusko said, \"where we believe caution is warranted.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们所处的环境，”尤斯科说，“我们认为有必要保持谨慎。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/08/investing/wall-street-market-bubble-yusko/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ZM":"Zoom","GME":"游戏驿站","TSLA":"特斯拉",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/08/investing/wall-street-market-bubble-yusko/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107682656","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) The V-shaped recovery in the stock market is gathering serious momentum.\nThe S&P 500 is now 75% higher than its low point last March. The Nasdaq has more than doubled since its pandemic low. Tesla shares are up a staggering 900% over that span. And an army of traders on Reddit were able tosend GameStop to the moon, at least for a few days.\nAlthough there is good reason for optimism about the economy and the pandemic, some fear themarket euphoria is getting out of hand-- yet it's impossible to time the bubble's burst.\n\"I do think we are in a bubble like we were in 2000,\" veteran hedge fund manager Mark Yusko told CNN Business. \"That doesn't mean that tomorrow the market is going to crash.\"\nYusko, the CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, pointed to signs of extreme market speculation, such as the 1,625% spike forGameStop(GME)in January.\n\"Equity markets broadly are in bubble territory. Look at the parabolic moves by a number of companies like Tesla,\" he said.\nTesla (TSLA) shares gained another 2% Monday after the company announced it is investing $1.5 billion in bitcoin and will begin accepting the cryptocurrency for payment.\nYusko also pointed to howApple's (AAPL) annual net income has barely budged over the past five years. But per-share earnings, which drive share prices, have climbed sharply because the iPhone maker has aggressively repurchased its shares.\n\"That's just financial engineering,\" he said.\nImpossible to time\nAnother exhibit in Yusko's bubble case is Snowflake. The money-losing cloud computing company, which went public in September, is trading at 327 times revenue, according to data provider Refinitiv. That's well above what even Zoom (ZM) and DocuSign (DOCU) trade at.\nYusko's bubble warning echoes ones made in recent weeks by other well-known market players.\nLast month famed investor Jeremy Grantham said the bull market that began in 2009 had \"matured into a full-fledged epic bubble\"marked by \" extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor behavior.\"\nOf course, no one can time when a bubble will pop. And overheated markets can get much hotter before finally cooling off.\n\"The challenge with extreme valuations is they can go on longer than you think,\" Yusko said.\nAnd Yusko has been overly bearish before. Two years ago, he warned that the stock market was overvalued and tech stocks in particular would fall sharply. Yet the S&P 500 is up more than 40% since then — despite the worst pandemic in a century.\nMorgan Stanley: Get on board or get out of the way\nWhile Yusko and Grantham are sounding the alarm, some major Wall Street firms remain very optimistic on the economy and the stock market. They point to the persistence of rock-bottom interest rates that have forced investors to bet on stocks.\nGoldman Sachs upgraded its forecasts for second-quarter 2021 and 2022 GDP on Monday because of a sense that Democrats will pass a significantly larger relief package than previously anticipated.\nMeanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to climb to 4,300 by year end, up about 11% from current levels.\nMichael Wilson, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, thinks the stock market's Reddit-driven scare is already firmly in the rearview mirror.\n\"It appears that greed once again has the upper hand over fear and the bull market is ready to resume in earnest,\" Wilson wrote in a note to clients Sunday.\nAfter suffering its worst week since October, the S&P 500 rapidly regained its losses last week, spiking 4.7%.\nEven though Wilson has recently called out signs of complacency and extreme risk, he is warning his clients not to fight this market rally.\n\"The prevailing view of better economic growth, more fiscal stimulus to come and continued money printing from the fed has everyone 'all in,'\" Wilson wrote. \"When such periods occur, it's rarely been easy or wise to get in the way. Instead, these trends typically need to run their course until they are derailed or simply exhausted.\"\nSPAC mania\nEven Yusko, the Morgan Creek hedge fund manager, is diving headfirst into one area of market speculation: SPAC mania.\nSpecial purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, are shells with no operating assets that exist purely to take private companies public. Virgin Galactic, DraftKings and Nikola have all gone public this way instead of a traditional IPO.Even former baseball superstar Alex Rodriguez is trying to raise $500 million through a SPAC called Slam Corp.\nLate last month, Yusko launched Morgan Creek Exos SPAC Originated ETF, a fund that will target pre- and post-merger SPACs with an equal weight approach.\nBut some argue SPACs are more evidence of bubble-like behavior on Wall Street.\nSPACs are \"an invitation to give me your money and I'll let you know one day what I'm going to do with it,\" Grantham recently told CNBC.\nDuring the first three weeks of 2021 alone, SPACs raised $16 billion, surpassing the $13 billion that was raised in all of 2019, according to Goldman Sachs.\n\"Bubble-like sentiment surrounds SPACs,\" Goldman Sachs analysts said.\nYusko disagreed with that sentiment and suggested the criticism from Goldman Sachs is convenient because the Wall Street bank relies on traditional IPOs for a chunk of its revenue.\n\"It's intellectually lazy to make that statement,\" he said. \"Saying SPACs are the problem is like saying hedge funds or mutual funds are the problem. It's just a legal structure.\"\nYusko said SPACs are cheaper, more flexible and a smarter way to raise money than traditional IPOs.\nUnlike the other two SPAC ETFs that have recently launched, Yusko's fund is actively managed. That's critical, he said, because not all SPACs will be winners, especially given the loftiness of current market valuations.\n\"We are in an environment,\" Yusko said, \"where we believe caution is warranted.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"GME":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ZM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160321173,"gmtCreate":1623773099192,"gmtModify":1634028466807,"author":{"id":"3574661238242016","authorId":"3574661238242016","name":"HitnRun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574661238242016","idStr":"3574661238242016"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Leggo","listText":"Leggo","text":"Leggo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160321173","repostId":"1127088935","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
