千金大女子的个人主页 - 老虎社区

千金大女子

千金大女子

玩票

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千金大女子

03-07

$高鑫零售(06808)$ 小股东们请注意，CEO沈辉及独立董事们已发公告，表达对于要约人德弘资本所提出现金收购港币1.38为不合理条件。

千金大女子

2021-08-27

nice,

抱歉，原内容已删除

千金大女子

2021-07-20

$腾讯控股(00700)$这上下震荡也太大了吧

千金大女子

2021-07-17

该是向上的节奏

千金大女子

2021-07-17

$腾讯控股(00700)$一路向前

千金大女子

2021-07-16

上周二家创历史新低价，还能打？市值蒸发多少呀？

抱歉，原内容已删除

千金大女子

2021-07-08

可怜巴巴，内外交困。

抱歉，原内容已删除

千金大女子

2021-07-08

好样的，加油

小米集团宣布共计发行12亿美元优先债券

千金大女子

2021-07-07

这可如何？

千金大女子

2021-07-06

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

抱歉，原内容已删除

千金大女子

2021-07-05

$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$穏定档

千金大女子

2021-07-04

这是该进场了

千金大女子

2021-07-03

$联邦快递(FDX)$赚了别贪心，入了口袋才是你的。

千金大女子

2021-07-02

$国信 210929 2.30 CALL(CTC.HK)$这好看多了。

千金大女子

2021-07-01

$联邦快递(FDX)$收货啦

千金大女子

2021-06-29

$英特尔(INTC)$进塲了

千金大女子

2021-06-27

$中国电信(00728)$这是怎么了

千金大女子

2021-06-20

$中芯国际(00981)$是要跑起来了？

千金大女子

2021-06-18

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$到期收钱了。

千金大女子

2021-06-16

$阿里 210629 225.00 CALL(ALB.HK)$这年头不好混啊

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Cannabis涨近6%；MKM将Canopy Growth评级从中性上调至买入。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb4b986449b18eeae28f7d27af64239f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da072d9bb0f4d60b2f073a1ed0e0f7e7","relate_stocks":{"ACB":"奥罗拉大麻公司","CGC":"Canopy Growth Corporation","TLRY":"Tilray Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193533174","content_text":"5月25日，美股大麻股普涨，Canopy Growth涨超8%，Tilray涨超7%，Aurora Cannabis涨近6%；MKM将Canopy 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>加足马力来吧🌸","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>加足马力来吧🌸","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$加足马力来吧🌸","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d18fbb677d023dfc7d4df3b258918f4","width":"1125","height":"1601"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189692309","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":132228946,"gmtCreate":1622093101885,"gmtModify":1634183892901,"author":{"id":"3575012843618607","authorId":"3575012843618607","name":"千金大女子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f495e97b14ed5c1f4008c5bd8de292","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575012843618607","authorIdStr":"3575012843618607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"国际市场布局已久，潜力黑马股","listText":"国际市场布局已久，潜力黑马股","text":"国际市场布局已久，潜力黑马股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132228946","repostId":"1131171414","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131171414","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622088817,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131171414?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-27 12:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"联想集团2021财年收入增长20%，为9年来最高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131171414","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四午间，联想集团发布2021财年四季度及全年财报：主要业绩2021财年Q4营收156.3亿美元，市场预期为143.28亿美元，去年同期为105.79亿美元。Q4净利润（亿美元）：2.6 ，预期：2.","content":"<p>周四午间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">联想集团</a>发布2021财年四季度及全年财报：</p><p><b>主要业绩</b></p><ul><li>2021财年Q4营收156.3亿美元，市场预期为143.28亿美元，去年同期为105.79亿美元。</li><li>Q4净利润（亿美元）：<b>2.6</b>&nbsp;，预期：2.05，前值：0.51。</li><li>Q4每股盈利0.019美元，市场预期为0.02美元，去年同期为0.0035美元。</li><li>2021财年营收607.42亿美元，市场预期为590.31亿美元，去年同期为507.16亿美元。</li><li>2021财年净利润（亿美元）：<b>11.78，</b>预期：11.37，前值：6.98。</li><li>2021财年每股盈利0.0954美元，市场预期为0.09美元，去年同期为0.055美元。</li></ul><p><b>业绩亮点</b></p><ul><li>联想集团：<b>截至2021年3月31日财年，收入创下9年来最高的20%的增长，财年收入增加了创纪录的100亿美元。</b>集团除税前溢利达到13年以来最高水平，股东应占溢利取得空前增长，同比增长了77%。</li><li>在本财年，智能设备业务集团收入和除税前溢利均创下历史新高，收入同比增长20%至544亿美元，除税前溢利增长35%至31亿美元。</li><li>在本财年，个人电脑和智能设备业务收入同比增长22%，实现创纪录的485亿美元，占集团总收入80%。</li><li>在本财年，数据中心业务集团收入同比增长15%，达到历史新高63亿美元，占集团总销售额10%。</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/075d6ae0fd25542dd88a6ce3fcda8e58\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1728\"></p><p><b>行情表现</b></p><p>截至午间收盘，联想集团港股跌0.1%，报9.67港元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67de69a88f3a9998ada337725165ac8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>联想集团2021财年收入增长20%，为9年来最高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n联想集团2021财年收入增长20%，为9年来最高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-27 12:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四午间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">联想集团</a>发布2021财年四季度及全年财报：</p><p><b>主要业绩</b></p><ul><li>2021财年Q4营收156.3亿美元，市场预期为143.28亿美元，去年同期为105.79亿美元。</li><li>Q4净利润（亿美元）：<b>2.6</b>&nbsp;，预期：2.05，前值：0.51。</li><li>Q4每股盈利0.019美元，市场预期为0.02美元，去年同期为0.0035美元。</li><li>2021财年营收607.42亿美元，市场预期为590.31亿美元，去年同期为507.16亿美元。</li><li>2021财年净利润（亿美元）：<b>11.78，</b>预期：11.37，前值：6.98。</li><li>2021财年每股盈利0.0954美元，市场预期为0.09美元，去年同期为0.055美元。</li></ul><p><b>业绩亮点</b></p><ul><li>联想集团：<b>截至2021年3月31日财年，收入创下9年来最高的20%的增长，财年收入增加了创纪录的100亿美元。</b>集团除税前溢利达到13年以来最高水平，股东应占溢利取得空前增长，同比增长了77%。</li><li>在本财年，智能设备业务集团收入和除税前溢利均创下历史新高，收入同比增长20%至544亿美元，除税前溢利增长35%至31亿美元。</li><li>在本财年，个人电脑和智能设备业务收入同比增长22%，实现创纪录的485亿美元，占集团总收入80%。</li><li>在本财年，数据中心业务集团收入同比增长15%，达到历史新高63亿美元，占集团总销售额10%。</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/075d6ae0fd25542dd88a6ce3fcda8e58\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1728\"></p><p><b>行情表现</b></p><p>截至午间收盘，联想集团港股跌0.1%，报9.67港元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67de69a88f3a9998ada337725165ac8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f10c5571533b425a393d535b40586ec","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131171414","content_text":"周四午间，联想集团发布2021财年四季度及全年财报：主要业绩2021财年Q4营收156.3亿美元，市场预期为143.28亿美元，去年同期为105.79亿美元。Q4净利润（亿美元）：2.6 ，预期：2.05，前值：0.51。Q4每股盈利0.019美元，市场预期为0.02美元，去年同期为0.0035美元。2021财年营收607.42亿美元，市场预期为590.31亿美元，去年同期为507.16亿美元。2021财年净利润（亿美元）：11.78，预期：11.37，前值：6.98。2021财年每股盈利0.0954美元，市场预期为0.09美元，去年同期为0.055美元。业绩亮点联想集团：截至2021年3月31日财年，收入创下9年来最高的20%的增长，财年收入增加了创纪录的100亿美元。集团除税前溢利达到13年以来最高水平，股东应占溢利取得空前增长，同比增长了77%。在本财年，智能设备业务集团收入和除税前溢利均创下历史新高，收入同比增长20%至544亿美元，除税前溢利增长35%至31亿美元。在本财年，个人电脑和智能设备业务收入同比增长22%，实现创纪录的485亿美元，占集团总收入80%。在本财年，数据中心业务集团收入同比增长15%，达到历史新高63亿美元，占集团总销售额10%。行情表现截至午间收盘，联想集团港股跌0.1%，报9.67港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00992":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547699770150320","authorId":"3547699770150320","name":"123zj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d60480f81869e946d981538294374245","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3547699770150320","authorIdStr":"3547699770150320"},"content":"跟着大姐姐炒，明年住大房","text":"跟着大姐姐炒，明年住大房","html":"跟着大姐姐炒，明年住大房"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342961401,"gmtCreate":1618153901903,"gmtModify":1631890564973,"author":{"id":"3575012843618607","authorId":"3575012843618607","name":"千金大女子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f495e97b14ed5c1f4008c5bd8de292","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575012843618607","authorIdStr":"3575012843618607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>这看来要大跌的节奏了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>这看来要大跌的节奏了。","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$这看来要大跌的节奏了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/555b0c4891a59575ce1a933ffae40673","width":"1125","height":"1601"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342961401","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354615056,"gmtCreate":1617166139975,"gmtModify":1631890564989,"author":{"id":"3575012843618607","authorId":"3575012843618607","name":"千金大女子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f495e97b14ed5c1f4008c5bd8de292","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575012843618607","authorIdStr":"3575012843618607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"公平的正义","listText":"公平的正义","text":"公平的正义","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354615056","repostId":"1183060981","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183060981","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617165145,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183060981?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-31 12:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞银可能因Archegos爆仓事件承受“上亿”的损失","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183060981","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据财富管理行业媒体Finews，瑞银可能在Archegos基金上面临上亿的亏损。","content":"<p>据财富管理行业媒体Finews，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>可能在Archegos基金上面临上亿的亏损。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0835c843d60cada17b71dcec1cd14b8b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银可能因Archegos爆仓事件承受“上亿”的损失</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞银可能因Archegos爆仓事件承受“上亿”的损失\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-31 12:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据财富管理行业媒体Finews，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>可能在Archegos基金上面临上亿的亏损。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0835c843d60cada17b71dcec1cd14b8b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183060981","content_text":"据财富管理行业媒体Finews，瑞银可能在Archegos基金上面临上亿的亏损。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557091364225232","authorId":"3557091364225232","name":"vuuron","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557091364225232","authorIdStr":"3557091364225232"},"content":"平日里赚的太多了","text":"平日里赚的太多了","html":"平日里赚的太多了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355222764,"gmtCreate":1617077792058,"gmtModify":1634522781799,"author":{"id":"3575012843618607","authorId":"3575012843618607","name":"千金大女子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f495e97b14ed5c1f4008c5bd8de292","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575012843618607","authorIdStr":"3575012843618607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>还是老股安全些。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>还是老股安全些。","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$还是老股安全些。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fce227992f8582d581d6f1b1338d1e1","width":"1125","height":"1601"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355222764","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557091364225232","authorId":"3557091364225232","name":"vuuron","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557091364225232","authorIdStr":"3557091364225232"},"content":"全职炒股吗","text":"全职炒股吗","html":"全职炒股吗"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353180325,"gmtCreate":1616469289267,"gmtModify":1634525658533,"author":{"id":"3575012843618607","authorId":"3575012843618607","name":"千金大女子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f495e97b14ed5c1f4008c5bd8de292","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575012843618607","authorIdStr":"3575012843618607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有眼力，他比较了解亚洲吧，除了中国还有哪里还能有资产增值的机会？","listText":"有眼力，他比较了解亚洲吧，除了中国还有哪里还能有资产增值的机会？","text":"有眼力，他比较了解亚洲吧，除了中国还有哪里还能有资产增值的机会？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353180325","repostId":"1190599462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190599462","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616467556,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190599462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-23 10:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"达利欧重磅演讲：未来10年中国资产具有相对优势","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190599462","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：未来10年，中国的货币、股票和信贷市场拥有相对优势。\n\n\n 导读：“忧国忧民”达利欧再度预言中美将“各领风骚数百年”，中国迅速崛起VS走下坡路的美国正照进现实。站在历史的分水岭，投资者应该何去何","content":"<blockquote>\n 摘要：未来10年，中国的货币、股票和信贷市场拥有相对优势。\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 导读：“忧国忧民”达利欧再度预言中美将“各领风骚数百年”，中国迅速崛起VS走下坡路的美国正照进现实。站在历史的分水岭，投资者应该何去何从？答案就在达利欧与华尔街见闻的精彩对话。\n</blockquote>\n<p>“2022年将主要是对2020年的一种反应，最有可能出现强劲的增长反弹和通货膨胀率大幅反弹的情况。上述情况已经被市场计价完毕，而且会在全球范围内发生。”</p>\n<p>“最重要的是了解所处世界格局，这通常持续10年，其中大约包含有两个大周期，它们确定了市场的大体走势和方向，如果你知道现在所处的范式类型，那么就会知道该投资和避免什么。”</p>\n<p>“过去5到10年，我发现自1930至1945年以来从未有过的三股主要力量出现，它们已经对事情产生了重大影响，相信也将影响未来的5至10年。”</p>\n<p>“第一股力量是长期债务和资本市场周期，最需要关注的是美元债务周期。第二股力量是内部的秩序和无序循环，由贫富、价值观和政治差距的扩大所致。第三股力量是外部秩序的混乱循环，目前的情况是中国在崛起，甚至可能超越美国成为世界强国。”</p>\n<p>“中国是全球最大贸易国，除了人民币日益国际化，中国正向世界开放资本市场，为全球投资者提供更具吸引力的投资。对我而言，2020年是影响所有这些条件、并指出未来十年会是什么样的决定性一年。未来10年，相对于西方国家，中国的货币、股票和信贷市场处于相对优势地位。”</p>\n<p>“当我查看美国债务的供求情况时，似乎没有足够的购买需求。这可能会迫使美联储加息，或者印更多钱和购买债务，最终导致美元贬值。不论哪种情况都利空于美元债券，并相对利好于中国资本市场。最终令非美元资产比美元资产更具吸引力。”</p>\n<p>“我相信我们已经看到40年债券牛市、特别是美元债券的牛市结束。我还认为，现金，或者说短期债务将是更糟糕的投资。所以短期债务应该被借来而不是作为资产持有。”</p>\n<p>“纵观历史，科技竞赛的赢家也是经济和地缘政治战争的赢家。这将导致大量资源被用于下一代人工智能、量子计算、半导体、神经科学、生物技术、环境保护和清洁能源（包括电池电源）中。我相信这些都是巨大的投资机会，鉴于规模效应，中美两国都将是追求这些目标的最佳选择。”</p>\n<p>“今年晚些时候，（美债）供求失衡将很大，与此同时经济可能会加速增长，通胀压力一道提升。美联储可能需要介入并印更多钱才能维持，接着会迎来两难局面。（不得不加息时），利率在提高时就会重创金融市场，这种伤害将发生得非常快，并将其传导到经济中。</p>\n<p>“参考历史，美联储一定会行动，也必须行动。当一个国家没有钱、同时面临利率上升损害经济时，历来都是通过央行印钞、贬值货币来应对。这种行为也会重演。”</p>\n<p>“拥有一个良好多元化的投资组合至关重要。一个优化多元的不同资产类别相互平衡，理想的情况是使它们全球化以及拥有货币资产多样化。一个多元化的投资组合相对现金而言预期收益为正，而现金预期收益为负。不过，如果不是主动管理的投资组合，回报率会相对较低。”</p>\n<p>“最好拥有多元化的财富储藏形式，这就包含了比特币。比特币在过去十年通过一些重要方式证明了自己，即未遭到黑客入侵并被广泛接受，但比特币也面临风险，例如被取缔以及供需等风险。重要的是不要单独押注某一种资产，每个人的投资组合中都应有一定比例类似硬通货的资产。”</p>\n<p>“我认为对于大多数投资者而言，他们最重要的事情就是平衡投资组合。在中国的投资也要从均衡开始，我们称其为全天候策略，可以在不减少回报的情况下降低风险，然后在全天候的策略之上我们再叠加主动管理型的投资策略。对于投资者而言，最重要的是要知道如何很好地分散投资。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a918f2dab9e8c177c49584efbdd3841\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>3月22日晚间，全球最大对冲基金桥水（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人兼联席首席投资官达利欧（Ray Dalio）登陆华尔街见闻，零距离向中国投资者分享世界经济展望及投资原则，并与华尔街见闻创始人吴晓鹏就近期全球市场热点和达利欧对中国资产的最新见解展开深度对话。</p>\n<p>达利欧表示，自己过去55年来一直立足于全球宏观投资，押注全球所有的高流通性市场，但不会投资于私募股权和房地产等非流动性资产，因为他喜欢根据情况变化而调整仓位。</p>\n<p>尽管他认为未来5到10年的趋势更重要，此次重点向中国投资者分享了对未来一年全球经济和市场的展望。他称，明年市场表现将主要是对“后疫情时代”的反应，最有可能出现的情况是强劲的经济增长反弹和通货膨胀率大幅上升，而且会在全球范围内发生，对此市场已经计价完毕。</p>\n<p><b>01 最重要的是了解当前所处范式，才能知道该投资和规避什么</b></p>\n<p>在本次分享中，达利欧总结了自己之前趋于完善的“范式”（Paradigm）理论。他再次重申，全球经济每隔10年就会出现一个新的范式，最重要的是了解我们现在所处的范式，即环境的类型。</p>\n<p>每个范式大约包含两个大周期，将决定市场的大体走势和方向。例如1970年代是通货膨胀的10年，令债券转为熊市，1980年代则恰恰相反。了解当前所处范式，就会知道该投资和避免什么。</p>\n<p>他称，过去5到10年中，美国出现了自1930年至1945年，即二战从酝酿到结束以来从未有过的三股主要力量，“它们已经对事情产生了重大影响，我相信也将影响未来的5至10年”。</p>\n<p><b>02 美国正步入高债务周期，美元必将贬值</b></p>\n<p><b>第一股力量是长期债务和资本市场周期。</b></p>\n<p>其中，信贷是产生债务的刺激物，而债务是抑制剂。当债务多到令持有人不再有利可图，以及发债政府没有足够的信用借到所需全部资金时，长期债务周期便会结束。</p>\n<p>达利欧认为，美国正在步入高负债且美债“快销售不出去”的困境边缘。这种变化始于2008年次贷危机，当时基准利率降至0%的历史低位，此前一次出现的时点正是1930至1945年期间。</p>\n<p>由于1945年创设了新的世界秩序，也带来了最新的美元债务周期，美元成为世界主要储备货币，并支撑了全球金融市场。然而当前美国正处在债务占GDP比重的创纪录高位，与此同时美联储大量印钞并购买债务使其“货币化”，都将引发美元贬值和相关反应。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db918b03c41e3806f6f6ca0f5fb335a5\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>03 美国内部秩序正向无序倾斜，贫富、价值观、政治鸿沟扩大</b></p>\n<p><b>第二股力量是内部的秩序与无序循环，这是由于贫富差距、价值观差距和政治差距的扩大所致</b>。</p>\n<p>他表示，通常不错的经济成就分配并不均衡，特别是在资本主义体系中，良好的经济增长通常会导致巨大的贫富差距以及债务过高，这些鸿沟导致巨大的财富冲突和意识形态分歧。</p>\n<p>“谁赢得这场战斗，将对税收、资本流动和市场产生重大影响”。值得注意的是，上一次财富差距带来巨大政治鸿沟发生在1930年至1945年，伴随而来的是世界大战这种强化的无序状态。</p>\n<p>目前美国0.1%最高收入人群持有财富几乎是最底部90%人的财富总和，是1930年来以来最高，收入情况也呈现类似巨幅割裂，美国意识形态冲突也为史上最强，会影响经济和税收政策等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c573f8829f7f5c8f9eb7729e75c96251\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>达利欧一贯喜欢这样“直言不讳”。今年1月他曾重申，美国处于“可怕的财政状况和可怕的分裂”中，需要革命性的变革，否则将处于一场可怕的内战的边缘，即内部秩序正向无序倾斜。</p>\n<p><b>04 未来10年，中国的货币、股票和信贷市场拥有相对优势</b></p>\n<p>达利欧提到的第三股新力量与中国崛起密切相关，即：“外部秩序的混乱循环”。上次出现另一大国崛起挑战现有大国的“修昔底德陷阱”还是在1930年代，历史再次来到一个关键节点。</p>\n<p>而参照历史，从荷兰帝国与荷兰盾、大英帝国与英镑，再到美国与美元、以及中国与人民币的发展轨迹来看，“这些帝国的兴衰周期和储备货币的变化正好吻合先前描述的周期”。</p>\n<p>也就是说<b>，现在可能是美元贬值的开始，人民币则正成为一种更加国际化的货币。</b>中国正向世界其他地区开放其资本市场，为全球投资者提供许多更具吸引力的投资：</p>\n<p>“对我而言，2020年是影响所有这些条件、并指示未来10年模样的决定性一年。未来10年，相对于西方国家，中国的货币、股票和信贷市场将处于相对优势地位。”</p>\n<p><b>05 非美元资产将比美元资产更具吸引力，全球对美国债券投资过重</b></p>\n<p>展望未来，达利欧认为美国将产生大量债务，并不得不将其出售为债务资产，令全球对美国资产、尤其是美国债券的投资过重。</p>\n<p>而在增量的基础上，中国将产生少得多的债务和货币，同时，世界对中国资产尚处于低配程度。这令<b>中国的利率、货币汇率和其他资产的定价相对具有吸引力</b>：</p>\n<p>“所有这些力量都有利于中国的国际收支、货币和资本市场。同时不要忘记，中国和美国处理新冠疫情的手法不同，相对于美国的高混乱，中国民间秩序显著平稳得多，这有利于资本流入中国，而不是流入美国。”</p>\n<p>他认为，这是出于这些原因，美国债务正向供大于求的天平倾斜，这可能会迫使美联储加息，或者印更多钱和购买债务，最终将导致美元贬值，“不论哪种情况都利空于美元债券，并相对利好于中国资本市场”。</p>\n<p>更何况，拜登政府上台不仅无法阻止美国内部的意识形态分歧，反而会恶化民主党与共和党人的矛盾，这种不稳定因素将在两年后的国会中期选举和四年后的总统大选显现，对财政和货币政策产生重大影响，影响到华尔街，最终令非美元资产比美元资产更具吸引力。</p>\n<p><b>06 债券40年牛市结束，最好借钱投资多元化资产，包括新技术</b></p>\n<p>达利欧表示，<b>40年的债券牛市、特别是美元债券的牛市已经结束，同时现金（或者说短期债务）是更糟糕的</b>投资，“所以短期债务应该被借来而不是作为资产持有”。</p>\n<p>换句话说，他的理想方法是拥有一系列多元化资产，而资金来源是现金融资（short cash position），即借钱来投资风险资产。</p>\n<p>他认为，<b>自然和科技这两大因素将继续对市场产生巨大影响：</b></p>\n<p>“就自然行为而言，纵观历史，旱灾、洪涝和疫情都产生了巨大的影响，这些将来可能会变得更加重要。就科技而言，它们及其背后的创新，过去一直是、现在仍然是最大的影响力量，比我刚才提到的所有其他问题都重要。”</p>\n<p>历史上，科技竞赛的赢家也是经济和地缘政治战争的赢家，这将导致大量资源被用于下一代人工智能、量子计算、半导体、神经科学、生物技术、环境保护和清洁能源（包括电池电源）中：</p>\n<p>“我相信这些都是巨大的投资机会，在这些领域投资是明智之举。鉴于规模效应，中美两国都将是追求这些目标的最佳选择。未来5年面临更多的网络攻击风险，网络安全将成热门领域。”</p>\n<p><b>07 美联储不得不加息时，幅度很小就会重创金融市场</b></p>\n<p>在问答环节，针对之前提到的“西方国家债券40年牛市结束”，达利欧解释称，美国、欧洲和日本的实际利率都显著低于0，名义利率也大多低于0，这代表债券投入的资本基本收不回来，“目前债市处在危险的早期，周期的最坏结果是债券持有者将承受所有资本损失”。</p>\n<p>他认为，目前债市承受很大卖压，但买家却相对不够，如果所有债券持有者都出售债券，将出现极端化的场景，今年晚些时候，美国债券的供求失衡将放大至严重程度。与此同时经济可能会加速增长，通胀压力一道提升，<b>美联储需要介入并印更多钱才能维持，美元国际信用或被动摇：</b></p>\n<p>“接着美联储便会迎来两难局面。（不得不加息时），利率不需要加得很高就会重创金融市场，这种伤害将发生得非常快，然后将其传递到经济中。因此，央行将必须决定印多少钱以及令美元贬值多少，1930年代和1970年代就是历史上最好的先例。”</p>\n<p><b>08 美联储一定会救市，货币超发时大宗商品超级周期不健康</b></p>\n<p>达利欧几年前曾提到过，<b>货币政策第一阶段是降息，第二阶段是量化宽松，第三阶段是财政与货币政策相互加持，美国以及全球主要央行无疑正在进行第三阶段。</b></p>\n<p>对于美联储是否会控制收益率曲线的问题，达利欧并没有做直接回答，只是说“参考历史，美联储一定会行动，也必须行动”。他表示，当一个国家没有钱、同时面临利率上升损害经济时，历来都是通过央行印钞、贬值货币来应对，这种行为也会重演。</p>\n<p>问题是，美国已经进入了央行大量印钞救市的逻辑中，“我们现在已经开始建立新的范式，以产生大量的债务和大量的金钱”，这也让他思考华尔街大行预言的大宗商品超级周期“并不健康”。</p>\n<p>因为在货币超发的基础上，大宗商品涨价主要与货币通胀有关，而不是供给需求通胀，后者才是供给短缺但需求强劲的“正常周期”。与供需通胀相反，货币通胀可能在经济活动疲弱时发生，而且恰好当前正在上演：</p>\n<p>“买入并持有大宗商品的人主要是为了对抗货币通胀，例如1920年代德国魏玛共和国时期，甚至砖块和石头这种建材也被当做财富储藏形式。所以当货币通胀步入极端形式时，大宗商品超级周期就发生了，我不认为大宗商品超级周期的发生是因为对大宗商品的（实际）需求过于强劲。”</p>\n<p><b>09 未来利率上升将影响股市，拥有多元化投资组合至关重要</b></p>\n<p>达利欧曾写道：“在我的一生里，我见过很多泡沫，我对历史上泡沫研究得更多。所以，我知道我说的泡沫是什么意思，还系统化了一整套泡沫指标，以辅助检测每一个资产市场。”</p>\n<p>针对目前全球股市估值都接近或处于历史最高的现状，他指出，去年3月起当经济脉动明显下降时，央行投入了所有资金，这些资金随即进入金融资产，导致所有金融资产价格都在上涨。</p>\n<p>当风险资产涨价，相对于债券的未来预期收益（即风险溢价）就下降了。以股市举例，标普500指数的股票预期回报率约为3%，当前美国10年期国债收益率小幅高于1.50%，风险溢价并不大。“如果利率开始上升，用不了多久就会影响股市，所以拥有良好多元化的投资组合至关重要”。</p>\n<p><b>10 比特币是新型财富贮藏手段但面临风险，不要押注单一资产</b></p>\n<p>而多元化概念也包含财富储藏形式的多样化，这便涉及到他的研究“新宠”比特币。</p>\n<p>达利欧称，比特币在过去十年通过一些重要方式证明了自己，即没有遭到黑客入侵并被广泛接受。但比特币也面临风险，如被取缔的监管隐忧和供需等风险。这与他前几个月的观点立场一致。</p>\n<p>因此，他并没有因为比特币而摒弃黄金，他依然建议人们把5%-10%的资金投入黄金。他称，“重要的一点是不要单独押注某一种资产，每个人的投资组合中都应该有一定比例类似硬通货的资产，以防你出现信用和金钱危机。”</p>\n<p><b>11 对大多数投资者而言，最重要的事情就是平衡投资组合</b></p>\n<p>达利欧强调：“我认为对于大多数投资者而言，他们最重要的事情就是平衡投资组合。”</p>\n<p>这也就是桥水发明的“全天候策略”，可以在不减少回报的情况下降低风险，然后在全天候的策略之上再叠加主动管理型的投资策略，因为“如果不是主动管理的投资组合，这种回报率会相对较低”。</p>\n<p>他指出，<b>“良好多元化”代表不同的资产类别</b>（例如股票、债券、黄金、通胀、指数债券等）相互平衡，“理想的情况是使它们全球化以及拥有货币资产多样化”；一个良好多元化的投资组合相对于现金而言，预期收益为正，而现金预期收益为负。</p>\n<p><b>在被问及最喜欢中国什么资产</b>，达利欧坦言：</p>\n<p>“投资者需要追求平衡性的投资，然后进行战术性调整，大多数情况下投资者要找到自己的平衡性，建立全天候的组合。对于投资者而言，最重要的是要知道如何很好地分散投资。”</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n达利欧重磅演讲：未来10年中国资产具有相对优势\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-23 10:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624646><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：未来10年，中国的货币、股票和信贷市场拥有相对优势。\n\n\n 导读：“忧国忧民”达利欧再度预言中美将“各领风骚数百年”，中国迅速崛起VS走下坡路的美国正照进现实。站在历史的分水岭，投资者应该何去何从？答案就在达利欧与华尔街见闻的精彩对话。\n\n“2022年将主要是对2020年的一种反应，最有可能出现强劲的增长反弹和通货膨胀率大幅反弹的情况。上述情况已经被市场计价完毕，而且会在全球范围内发生。”\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624646\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ac6f61084482a9c0c70291c78e92f5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624646","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1190599462","content_text":"摘要：未来10年，中国的货币、股票和信贷市场拥有相对优势。\n\n\n 导读：“忧国忧民”达利欧再度预言中美将“各领风骚数百年”，中国迅速崛起VS走下坡路的美国正照进现实。站在历史的分水岭，投资者应该何去何从？答案就在达利欧与华尔街见闻的精彩对话。\n\n“2022年将主要是对2020年的一种反应，最有可能出现强劲的增长反弹和通货膨胀率大幅反弹的情况。上述情况已经被市场计价完毕，而且会在全球范围内发生。”\n“最重要的是了解所处世界格局，这通常持续10年，其中大约包含有两个大周期，它们确定了市场的大体走势和方向，如果你知道现在所处的范式类型，那么就会知道该投资和避免什么。”\n“过去5到10年，我发现自1930至1945年以来从未有过的三股主要力量出现，它们已经对事情产生了重大影响，相信也将影响未来的5至10年。”\n“第一股力量是长期债务和资本市场周期，最需要关注的是美元债务周期。第二股力量是内部的秩序和无序循环，由贫富、价值观和政治差距的扩大所致。第三股力量是外部秩序的混乱循环，目前的情况是中国在崛起，甚至可能超越美国成为世界强国。”\n“中国是全球最大贸易国，除了人民币日益国际化，中国正向世界开放资本市场，为全球投资者提供更具吸引力的投资。对我而言，2020年是影响所有这些条件、并指出未来十年会是什么样的决定性一年。未来10年，相对于西方国家，中国的货币、股票和信贷市场处于相对优势地位。”\n“当我查看美国债务的供求情况时，似乎没有足够的购买需求。这可能会迫使美联储加息，或者印更多钱和购买债务，最终导致美元贬值。不论哪种情况都利空于美元债券，并相对利好于中国资本市场。最终令非美元资产比美元资产更具吸引力。”\n“我相信我们已经看到40年债券牛市、特别是美元债券的牛市结束。我还认为，现金，或者说短期债务将是更糟糕的投资。所以短期债务应该被借来而不是作为资产持有。”\n“纵观历史，科技竞赛的赢家也是经济和地缘政治战争的赢家。这将导致大量资源被用于下一代人工智能、量子计算、半导体、神经科学、生物技术、环境保护和清洁能源（包括电池电源）中。我相信这些都是巨大的投资机会，鉴于规模效应，中美两国都将是追求这些目标的最佳选择。”\n“今年晚些时候，（美债）供求失衡将很大，与此同时经济可能会加速增长，通胀压力一道提升。美联储可能需要介入并印更多钱才能维持，接着会迎来两难局面。（不得不加息时），利率在提高时就会重创金融市场，这种伤害将发生得非常快，并将其传导到经济中。\n“参考历史，美联储一定会行动，也必须行动。当一个国家没有钱、同时面临利率上升损害经济时，历来都是通过央行印钞、贬值货币来应对。这种行为也会重演。”\n“拥有一个良好多元化的投资组合至关重要。一个优化多元的不同资产类别相互平衡，理想的情况是使它们全球化以及拥有货币资产多样化。一个多元化的投资组合相对现金而言预期收益为正，而现金预期收益为负。不过，如果不是主动管理的投资组合，回报率会相对较低。”\n“最好拥有多元化的财富储藏形式，这就包含了比特币。比特币在过去十年通过一些重要方式证明了自己，即未遭到黑客入侵并被广泛接受，但比特币也面临风险，例如被取缔以及供需等风险。重要的是不要单独押注某一种资产，每个人的投资组合中都应有一定比例类似硬通货的资产。”\n“我认为对于大多数投资者而言，他们最重要的事情就是平衡投资组合。在中国的投资也要从均衡开始，我们称其为全天候策略，可以在不减少回报的情况下降低风险，然后在全天候的策略之上我们再叠加主动管理型的投资策略。对于投资者而言，最重要的是要知道如何很好地分散投资。”\n\n3月22日晚间，全球最大对冲基金桥水（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人兼联席首席投资官达利欧（Ray Dalio）登陆华尔街见闻，零距离向中国投资者分享世界经济展望及投资原则，并与华尔街见闻创始人吴晓鹏就近期全球市场热点和达利欧对中国资产的最新见解展开深度对话。\n达利欧表示，自己过去55年来一直立足于全球宏观投资，押注全球所有的高流通性市场，但不会投资于私募股权和房地产等非流动性资产，因为他喜欢根据情况变化而调整仓位。\n尽管他认为未来5到10年的趋势更重要，此次重点向中国投资者分享了对未来一年全球经济和市场的展望。他称，明年市场表现将主要是对“后疫情时代”的反应，最有可能出现的情况是强劲的经济增长反弹和通货膨胀率大幅上升，而且会在全球范围内发生，对此市场已经计价完毕。\n01 最重要的是了解当前所处范式，才能知道该投资和规避什么\n在本次分享中，达利欧总结了自己之前趋于完善的“范式”（Paradigm）理论。他再次重申，全球经济每隔10年就会出现一个新的范式，最重要的是了解我们现在所处的范式，即环境的类型。\n每个范式大约包含两个大周期，将决定市场的大体走势和方向。例如1970年代是通货膨胀的10年，令债券转为熊市，1980年代则恰恰相反。了解当前所处范式，就会知道该投资和避免什么。\n他称，过去5到10年中，美国出现了自1930年至1945年，即二战从酝酿到结束以来从未有过的三股主要力量，“它们已经对事情产生了重大影响，我相信也将影响未来的5至10年”。\n02 美国正步入高债务周期，美元必将贬值\n第一股力量是长期债务和资本市场周期。\n其中，信贷是产生债务的刺激物，而债务是抑制剂。当债务多到令持有人不再有利可图，以及发债政府没有足够的信用借到所需全部资金时，长期债务周期便会结束。\n达利欧认为，美国正在步入高负债且美债“快销售不出去”的困境边缘。这种变化始于2008年次贷危机，当时基准利率降至0%的历史低位，此前一次出现的时点正是1930至1945年期间。\n由于1945年创设了新的世界秩序，也带来了最新的美元债务周期，美元成为世界主要储备货币，并支撑了全球金融市场。然而当前美国正处在债务占GDP比重的创纪录高位，与此同时美联储大量印钞并购买债务使其“货币化”，都将引发美元贬值和相关反应。\n\n03 美国内部秩序正向无序倾斜，贫富、价值观、政治鸿沟扩大\n第二股力量是内部的秩序与无序循环，这是由于贫富差距、价值观差距和政治差距的扩大所致。\n他表示，通常不错的经济成就分配并不均衡，特别是在资本主义体系中，良好的经济增长通常会导致巨大的贫富差距以及债务过高，这些鸿沟导致巨大的财富冲突和意识形态分歧。\n“谁赢得这场战斗，将对税收、资本流动和市场产生重大影响”。值得注意的是，上一次财富差距带来巨大政治鸿沟发生在1930年至1945年，伴随而来的是世界大战这种强化的无序状态。\n目前美国0.1%最高收入人群持有财富几乎是最底部90%人的财富总和，是1930年来以来最高，收入情况也呈现类似巨幅割裂，美国意识形态冲突也为史上最强，会影响经济和税收政策等。\n\n达利欧一贯喜欢这样“直言不讳”。今年1月他曾重申，美国处于“可怕的财政状况和可怕的分裂”中，需要革命性的变革，否则将处于一场可怕的内战的边缘，即内部秩序正向无序倾斜。\n04 未来10年，中国的货币、股票和信贷市场拥有相对优势\n达利欧提到的第三股新力量与中国崛起密切相关，即：“外部秩序的混乱循环”。上次出现另一大国崛起挑战现有大国的“修昔底德陷阱”还是在1930年代，历史再次来到一个关键节点。\n而参照历史，从荷兰帝国与荷兰盾、大英帝国与英镑，再到美国与美元、以及中国与人民币的发展轨迹来看，“这些帝国的兴衰周期和储备货币的变化正好吻合先前描述的周期”。\n也就是说，现在可能是美元贬值的开始，人民币则正成为一种更加国际化的货币。中国正向世界其他地区开放其资本市场，为全球投资者提供许多更具吸引力的投资：\n“对我而言，2020年是影响所有这些条件、并指示未来10年模样的决定性一年。未来10年，相对于西方国家，中国的货币、股票和信贷市场将处于相对优势地位。”\n05 非美元资产将比美元资产更具吸引力，全球对美国债券投资过重\n展望未来，达利欧认为美国将产生大量债务，并不得不将其出售为债务资产，令全球对美国资产、尤其是美国债券的投资过重。\n而在增量的基础上，中国将产生少得多的债务和货币，同时，世界对中国资产尚处于低配程度。这令中国的利率、货币汇率和其他资产的定价相对具有吸引力：\n“所有这些力量都有利于中国的国际收支、货币和资本市场。同时不要忘记，中国和美国处理新冠疫情的手法不同，相对于美国的高混乱，中国民间秩序显著平稳得多，这有利于资本流入中国，而不是流入美国。”\n他认为，这是出于这些原因，美国债务正向供大于求的天平倾斜，这可能会迫使美联储加息，或者印更多钱和购买债务，最终将导致美元贬值，“不论哪种情况都利空于美元债券，并相对利好于中国资本市场”。\n更何况，拜登政府上台不仅无法阻止美国内部的意识形态分歧，反而会恶化民主党与共和党人的矛盾，这种不稳定因素将在两年后的国会中期选举和四年后的总统大选显现，对财政和货币政策产生重大影响，影响到华尔街，最终令非美元资产比美元资产更具吸引力。\n06 债券40年牛市结束，最好借钱投资多元化资产，包括新技术\n达利欧表示，40年的债券牛市、特别是美元债券的牛市已经结束，同时现金（或者说短期债务）是更糟糕的投资，“所以短期债务应该被借来而不是作为资产持有”。\n换句话说，他的理想方法是拥有一系列多元化资产，而资金来源是现金融资（short cash position），即借钱来投资风险资产。\n他认为，自然和科技这两大因素将继续对市场产生巨大影响：\n“就自然行为而言，纵观历史，旱灾、洪涝和疫情都产生了巨大的影响，这些将来可能会变得更加重要。就科技而言，它们及其背后的创新，过去一直是、现在仍然是最大的影响力量，比我刚才提到的所有其他问题都重要。”\n历史上，科技竞赛的赢家也是经济和地缘政治战争的赢家，这将导致大量资源被用于下一代人工智能、量子计算、半导体、神经科学、生物技术、环境保护和清洁能源（包括电池电源）中：\n“我相信这些都是巨大的投资机会，在这些领域投资是明智之举。鉴于规模效应，中美两国都将是追求这些目标的最佳选择。未来5年面临更多的网络攻击风险，网络安全将成热门领域。”\n07 美联储不得不加息时，幅度很小就会重创金融市场\n在问答环节，针对之前提到的“西方国家债券40年牛市结束”，达利欧解释称，美国、欧洲和日本的实际利率都显著低于0，名义利率也大多低于0，这代表债券投入的资本基本收不回来，“目前债市处在危险的早期，周期的最坏结果是债券持有者将承受所有资本损失”。\n他认为，目前债市承受很大卖压，但买家却相对不够，如果所有债券持有者都出售债券，将出现极端化的场景，今年晚些时候，美国债券的供求失衡将放大至严重程度。与此同时经济可能会加速增长，通胀压力一道提升，美联储需要介入并印更多钱才能维持，美元国际信用或被动摇：\n“接着美联储便会迎来两难局面。（不得不加息时），利率不需要加得很高就会重创金融市场，这种伤害将发生得非常快，然后将其传递到经济中。因此，央行将必须决定印多少钱以及令美元贬值多少，1930年代和1970年代就是历史上最好的先例。”\n08 美联储一定会救市，货币超发时大宗商品超级周期不健康\n达利欧几年前曾提到过，货币政策第一阶段是降息，第二阶段是量化宽松，第三阶段是财政与货币政策相互加持，美国以及全球主要央行无疑正在进行第三阶段。\n对于美联储是否会控制收益率曲线的问题，达利欧并没有做直接回答，只是说“参考历史，美联储一定会行动，也必须行动”。他表示，当一个国家没有钱、同时面临利率上升损害经济时，历来都是通过央行印钞、贬值货币来应对，这种行为也会重演。\n问题是，美国已经进入了央行大量印钞救市的逻辑中，“我们现在已经开始建立新的范式，以产生大量的债务和大量的金钱”，这也让他思考华尔街大行预言的大宗商品超级周期“并不健康”。\n因为在货币超发的基础上，大宗商品涨价主要与货币通胀有关，而不是供给需求通胀，后者才是供给短缺但需求强劲的“正常周期”。与供需通胀相反，货币通胀可能在经济活动疲弱时发生，而且恰好当前正在上演：\n“买入并持有大宗商品的人主要是为了对抗货币通胀，例如1920年代德国魏玛共和国时期，甚至砖块和石头这种建材也被当做财富储藏形式。所以当货币通胀步入极端形式时，大宗商品超级周期就发生了，我不认为大宗商品超级周期的发生是因为对大宗商品的（实际）需求过于强劲。”\n09 未来利率上升将影响股市，拥有多元化投资组合至关重要\n达利欧曾写道：“在我的一生里，我见过很多泡沫，我对历史上泡沫研究得更多。所以，我知道我说的泡沫是什么意思，还系统化了一整套泡沫指标，以辅助检测每一个资产市场。”\n针对目前全球股市估值都接近或处于历史最高的现状，他指出，去年3月起当经济脉动明显下降时，央行投入了所有资金，这些资金随即进入金融资产，导致所有金融资产价格都在上涨。\n当风险资产涨价，相对于债券的未来预期收益（即风险溢价）就下降了。以股市举例，标普500指数的股票预期回报率约为3%，当前美国10年期国债收益率小幅高于1.50%，风险溢价并不大。“如果利率开始上升，用不了多久就会影响股市，所以拥有良好多元化的投资组合至关重要”。\n10 比特币是新型财富贮藏手段但面临风险，不要押注单一资产\n而多元化概念也包含财富储藏形式的多样化，这便涉及到他的研究“新宠”比特币。\n达利欧称，比特币在过去十年通过一些重要方式证明了自己，即没有遭到黑客入侵并被广泛接受。但比特币也面临风险，如被取缔的监管隐忧和供需等风险。这与他前几个月的观点立场一致。\n因此，他并没有因为比特币而摒弃黄金，他依然建议人们把5%-10%的资金投入黄金。他称，“重要的一点是不要单独押注某一种资产，每个人的投资组合中都应该有一定比例类似硬通货的资产，以防你出现信用和金钱危机。”\n11 对大多数投资者而言，最重要的事情就是平衡投资组合\n达利欧强调：“我认为对于大多数投资者而言，他们最重要的事情就是平衡投资组合。”\n这也就是桥水发明的“全天候策略”，可以在不减少回报的情况下降低风险，然后在全天候的策略之上再叠加主动管理型的投资策略，因为“如果不是主动管理的投资组合，这种回报率会相对较低”。\n他指出，“良好多元化”代表不同的资产类别（例如股票、债券、黄金、通胀、指数债券等）相互平衡，“理想的情况是使它们全球化以及拥有货币资产多样化”；一个良好多元化的投资组合相对于现金而言，预期收益为正，而现金预期收益为负。\n在被问及最喜欢中国什么资产，达利欧坦言：\n“投资者需要追求平衡性的投资，然后进行战术性调整，大多数情况下投资者要找到自己的平衡性，建立全天候的组合。对于投资者而言，最重要的是要知道如何很好地分散投资。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527664028657721","authorId":"3527664028657721","name":"Zmhell","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527664028657721","authorIdStr":"3527664028657721"},"content":"服了你了，除了癌股，哪儿都是机会","text":"服了你了，除了癌股，哪儿都是机会","html":"服了你了，除了癌股，哪儿都是机会"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":149990884,"gmtCreate":1625699834548,"gmtModify":1631890564950,"author":{"id":"3575012843618607","authorId":"3575012843618607","name":"千金大女子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f495e97b14ed5c1f4008c5bd8de292","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575012843618607","authorIdStr":"3575012843618607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可怜巴巴，内外交困。","listText":"可怜巴巴，内外交困。","text":"可怜巴巴，内外交困。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149990884","repostId":"2149198433","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":137690935,"gmtCreate":1622340930827,"gmtModify":1634102222431,"author":{"id":"3575012843618607","authorId":"3575012843618607","name":"千金大女子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f495e97b14ed5c1f4008c5bd8de292","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575012843618607","authorIdStr":"3575012843618607"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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