英大证券李大霄的个人主页 - 老虎社区

英大证券李大霄

英大证券李大霄

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IP属地：辽宁

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0勋章

英大证券李大霄

2021-04-08

$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$一毛钱见

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-13

$Synthetic Biologics Inc(SYN)$芜湖！！

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-12

$老虎证券(TIGR)$根本没有劲儿！这么小声还想开军舰？

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-12

$老虎证券(TIGR)$tora!tora!tora!

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-10

$老虎证券(TIGR)$这个股的庄太黑了

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-08

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$大麻市场目前产能过剩。

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-06

$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$不错

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-05

$百世集团(BEST)$这个其实不错回撤不到17%

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-05

中金也要跑了

抱歉，原内容已删除

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-04

坑定不能买老虎证券就对了

美债“熊陡”：历史复盘与展望

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-04

$老虎证券(TIGR)$我评论被删了？

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-04

$老虎证券(TIGR)$这也太垃圾了。每天高开低走然后拉一点再低走。

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-03

$老虎证券(TIGR)$十年国债涨到1.5太恐怖了

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-03

$Assertio Holdings, Inc.(ASRT)$这鬼东西有什么利好吗？

英大证券李大霄

2021-03-01

$老虎证券(TIGR)$为什么盯着我的十块二十块不放？

英大证券李大霄

2021-02-26

$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$这个还可以毕竟是船运

英大证券李大霄

2021-02-26

$百世集团(BEST)$跟跌不跟涨

英大证券李大霄

2021-02-26

$百世集团(BEST)$想退市了吧

英大证券李大霄

2021-02-26

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$拜登是真的不行。。。

英大证券李大霄

2021-02-25

$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎屁股摸不得，太恶心了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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16:05","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美债“熊陡”：历史复盘与展望","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193390325","media":"尧望后势","summary":"前言：近期美债收益率快速上行，且走出明显的“熊陡”形态，引发市场对货币政策收紧的担忧，同时导致全球波动率抬升，高估值资产共振调整。历史上美债“熊陡”阶段资本市场有何特征？对资产价格有何影响？未来美债利","content":"<p><b>前言：</b>近期美债收益率快速上行，且走出明显的“熊陡”形态，引发市场对货币政策收紧的担忧，同时导致全球波动率抬升，高估值资产共振调整。历史上美债“熊陡”阶段资本市场有何特征？对资产价格有何影响？未来美债利率又将如何演绎？本篇作出解答。</p><p><b>报告正文</b></p><p><b>一、近期美债利率大幅上行，市场波动加剧</b></p><p><b>自去年8月以来美债长端利率触底反弹，年初以来加速上行，期限利差大幅走阔。</b>疫情爆发后，在经济环境恶化与美联储货币持续超发的冲击下，美债长端利率大幅下跌，直至2020年8月探底至0.52%水平，此后进入上行通道。进入今年2月利率出现跳升，由1.1%最高跃升43BP至1.54%，接近疫情爆发前水平，而与此同时，美债短端利率却始终维持在0.15%左右的低位，期限结构自去年8月以来持续呈现“熊陡”状态，期限利差（10年期美债利率-2年期美债利率）在长端利率的推动下大幅走阔，最高达137BP，创2016年以来的新高。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417311493ce0faab4684b311d606fbe6\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe9926158b846fb39fc27958fa6e8c20\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>伴随着美债长端利率的跃升，资本市场的波动与分化明显加剧。</b>市场通胀预期强化，美债长端利率快速上行，资本市场的波动和分化加剧。尤其是自2月中旬后，美债长端利率上行大幅加速，黄金及美股的成长股与大盘股明显承压，而大宗商品及美股的价值股与小盘股受到的负面冲击则相对较小，全月涨幅也位居前列。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bc69390d30f3b41900553ff9186ce9e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>二、美债复盘：“熊陡”阶段各类资产如何表现？</b></p><p><b>当前美债处于短端利率维持低位的“熊陡”状态，2000年以来，类似的“熊陡”结构共有过三次</b>，分别是2009年至2010年、2012年年中至2014年以及本轮自2020年Q3至今。不难发现，“熊陡”结构的形成与危机性事件的冲击有关，在剧烈冲击过后随着经济逐渐企稳复苏，通胀预期上行，美债长端利率率先拐头向上，而美联储延续宽松货币政策使得短端利率得以维持低位，从而呈现出较为明显的“熊陡”格局。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb2cbc5ad6d1ddca9dd637268ebe6a95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>从三次“熊陡”阶段各类资产的市场表现看，大宗商品与美股明显占优，而美元指数与黄金表现相对较弱。</b>“熊陡”阶段，经济复苏推升通胀预期，改善大宗商品价格与企业盈利水平，叠加相对宽松的货币环境，使得CRB商品指数与美股明显占优，三次“熊陡”阶段的涨幅中位数分别达29.13%和28.51%，而美元指数与黄金价格维持弱势，分别下跌2.76%和12.75%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f424910e2e9e3762bbd548f9977fec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>从对美股的影响看，市场风格将由成长转向价值、大盘转向小盘。</b>长端利率上行往往隐含着经济复苏，随着经济进一步转好，对价值风格分子端层面的提振更为显著，而小盘股在经济复苏阶段由于更具业绩弹性，得以率先走出危机。在三次“熊陡”阶段，市场风格均明显向价值与小盘偏转，从涨跌幅角度看，价值与小盘也均大幅跑赢成长与大盘。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b836bd8051681d5627f8a9d57b809b0b\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a2b5c190e5a490e1263dee97fd4fdb4\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cecad2eb58e13c6ddd2b79c9c366227f\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3c6f12e28092952e3750e6f8a4c947\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>从具体行业看，金融周期类行业在熊陡阶段大幅跑赢。</b>金融、工业、能源等金融周期类行业在“熊陡”阶段往往能够跑赢市场，相对标普500的超额涨跌幅中位数分别达17.27%、7.13%和6.86%，而公共事业、通信设备与必选消费表现相对较弱，超额涨跌幅中位数分别为-21.70%、-16.45%和-12.13%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149c28ac2f019a19b620ff05db448b4f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>三、未来展望：“熊陡”之后，市场何去何从?</b></p><p><b>回顾过去两次“熊陡”阶段的终结因素，主要包括市场陷入通缩和货币政策转向：</b></p><p><b>2009-2010年的美债“熊陡”因市场通胀预期落空、经济数据恶化重启QE而终结。</b>美联储在金融危机后启动QE，市场避险情绪缓解。依靠货币宽松和大规模的财政刺激，美国经济在2009年出现短暂复苏，美债长端利率大幅上行，呈现“熊陡”格局。但由于通胀水平转负，核心通胀也持续位于2%的美联储通胀目标以下，市场通缩预期升温，且经济数据再度恶化，美联储重启QE购买中长期国债，叠加欧债危机愈演愈烈，大量海外美元回流，进一步打压美债长端利率，短端利率虽因货币收缩预期改善而下行，但下行幅度相对较小，“熊陡”结构随之终结。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e08d16a78bf75686c9970f704eadf5\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2012-2014年美债“熊陡”，因货币政策的预期转向而走向终结。</b>2013年5月，美联储主席伯南克释放削减QE信号，引发市场“削减恐慌”，而与此同时，欧债危机已逐渐平息，发达市场经济自2013年二季度后迎来共振复苏，推动美债长端利率上行，市场已普遍预期加息，但由于新兴市场经济仍面临较大增长压力，美联储推迟至2015年12月才首次加息，“熊陡”随着长端利率的逐渐回落再次终结。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e23d4d3f071cd109d197947f0304c73a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>从“熊陡”阶段后的资产表现看，黄金与美元指数短期存在补涨，而从中长期看黄金与大宗商品相对占优</b>。两次“熊陡”阶段后，黄金价格往往转为上涨，美元指数短期有所回升，但中长期维持弱势；而对于大宗商品和美股则有所分化，第一次“熊陡”阶段后，股市与大宗商品价格承压，而第二次“熊陡”阶段后，美股受加息影响短期回落调整，但中长期大宗商品与美股仍将维持升势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67aa856e5a1348ce200ae002b733bd09\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0e3f8b2973931d8a14191d3ecaf039\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>对于本轮美债走势，疫情形势缓解、经济复苏预期、大规模财政刺激和大宗商品价格涨价，共同推升市场通胀预期，成为今年以来长端利率迅速抬升的主要原因：</b></p><p><b>1）美国疫苗接种加速，疫情形势大幅缓解。</b>拜登上台后大力推行疫苗接种计划，目前美国已完成7500万剂新冠疫苗注射，近2500万人完成接种，与之相对应的是美国的疫情形势显著好转，每日新增确诊病例数由年初的30万例下降至5万例左右。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a65b207e8cbffd049c81474e1a71b0\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc72f30e1d33477d8ca99dd996dc8bb\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2）全球经济共振复苏，美国经济加速修复。</b>随着疫情形势的好转，全球主要经济体制造业PMI也在持续上行，美国2月制造业PMI更是录得60.8，连续9个月位于荣枯线以上，且接近2018年的高点，经济加速修复。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50fb2cde30ab7ea5bb6e105573f487a0\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3）新一轮大规模财政刺激在途，进一步推升通胀预期。</b>2月27日，美国新一轮1.9万亿美元刺激法案于众议院表决通过，其中包括超过6000亿美元对美国居民的直接补贴，叠加2020年的2.2万亿美元，疫情以来，美国的财政刺激规模已高达4.1万亿美元，大幅推升市场通胀预期。</p><p><b>4）大宗商品价格大幅上涨。</b>全球史无前例的货币宽松刺激，叠加经济复苏、需求回暖，以原油和铜为代表的大宗商品迎来新一轮价格上行周期。WTI原油价格目前已重回疫情爆发前水平，铜等工业金属价格逼近历史最高点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d18e8c4f0dc7eb97ee1449707a33253e\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>本轮美债“熊陡”终结的因素目前尚未出现，长端利率在短期内或将延续上升态势，考虑到联储鸽派立场以及通胀容忍度的提升，货币政策仍将维持宽松，短端利率跟随长端上行的概率较低；二季度之后，随着通胀与增长高点的显现，长端利率也有望迎来下行拐点，届时期限利差走阔的趋势也将迎来扭转。</b></p><p><b>首先，在经济持续复苏和大宗商品价格上涨的带动下，美国通胀水平上升相对确定，类似2009-2010年的“熊陡”因通缩而终结的可能性不大。</b></p><p><b>其次，货币政策难转向，仍将维持宽松。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔近期在多个重要场合反复强调，将继续提供货币政策支持，即便是在看到前景改善的情况下，也将维持债券购买计划不变，暂时不会考虑退出量化宽松。并明确美联储加息条件为失业率降至4.3%以下、通胀达到2.0%、通胀预期超过2.0%。</p><p><b>最后，在当前美联储所采用的“平均通胀目标制”的货币政策框架下，对通胀容忍度已大幅提升。</b>当前美国通胀水平自去年3月以来虽有所回升，但仍未恢复至疫情前水平，且距离2%的通胀目标仍存差距，即便未来通胀水平攀升超过2%，美联储也将大概率将“按兵不动”，短端利率在未来一段时间内仍将维持低位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34355541f4a4bbabd1095b9e968b97\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92080008facb684354f6681eb796997\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>风险提示</b></p><p>1、疫情反复；2、宏观经济波动；3、政策超预期变化</p>","source":"ywhs","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/VQzzjBKnddPuH1KtivPJOQ><strong>尧望后势</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>前言：近期美债收益率快速上行，且走出明显的“熊陡”形态，引发市场对货币政策收紧的担忧，同时导致全球波动率抬升，高估值资产共振调整。历史上美债“熊陡”阶段资本市场有何特征？对资产价格有何影响？未来美债利率又将如何演绎？本篇作出解答。报告正文一、近期美债利率大幅上行，市场波动加剧自去年8月以来美债长端利率触底反弹，年初以来加速上行，期限利差大幅走阔。疫情爆发后，在经济环境恶化与美联储货币持续超发的冲击...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/VQzzjBKnddPuH1KtivPJOQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74c62cbdbbdde877dad5e12790f9a73","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/VQzzjBKnddPuH1KtivPJOQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193390325","content_text":"前言：近期美债收益率快速上行，且走出明显的“熊陡”形态，引发市场对货币政策收紧的担忧，同时导致全球波动率抬升，高估值资产共振调整。历史上美债“熊陡”阶段资本市场有何特征？对资产价格有何影响？未来美债利率又将如何演绎？本篇作出解答。报告正文一、近期美债利率大幅上行，市场波动加剧自去年8月以来美债长端利率触底反弹，年初以来加速上行，期限利差大幅走阔。疫情爆发后，在经济环境恶化与美联储货币持续超发的冲击下，美债长端利率大幅下跌，直至2020年8月探底至0.52%水平，此后进入上行通道。进入今年2月利率出现跳升，由1.1%最高跃升43BP至1.54%，接近疫情爆发前水平，而与此同时，美债短端利率却始终维持在0.15%左右的低位，期限结构自去年8月以来持续呈现“熊陡”状态，期限利差（10年期美债利率-2年期美债利率）在长端利率的推动下大幅走阔，最高达137BP，创2016年以来的新高。伴随着美债长端利率的跃升，资本市场的波动与分化明显加剧。市场通胀预期强化，美债长端利率快速上行，资本市场的波动和分化加剧。尤其是自2月中旬后，美债长端利率上行大幅加速，黄金及美股的成长股与大盘股明显承压，而大宗商品及美股的价值股与小盘股受到的负面冲击则相对较小，全月涨幅也位居前列。二、美债复盘：“熊陡”阶段各类资产如何表现？当前美债处于短端利率维持低位的“熊陡”状态，2000年以来，类似的“熊陡”结构共有过三次，分别是2009年至2010年、2012年年中至2014年以及本轮自2020年Q3至今。不难发现，“熊陡”结构的形成与危机性事件的冲击有关，在剧烈冲击过后随着经济逐渐企稳复苏，通胀预期上行，美债长端利率率先拐头向上，而美联储延续宽松货币政策使得短端利率得以维持低位，从而呈现出较为明显的“熊陡”格局。从三次“熊陡”阶段各类资产的市场表现看，大宗商品与美股明显占优，而美元指数与黄金表现相对较弱。“熊陡”阶段，经济复苏推升通胀预期，改善大宗商品价格与企业盈利水平，叠加相对宽松的货币环境，使得CRB商品指数与美股明显占优，三次“熊陡”阶段的涨幅中位数分别达29.13%和28.51%，而美元指数与黄金价格维持弱势，分别下跌2.76%和12.75%。从对美股的影响看，市场风格将由成长转向价值、大盘转向小盘。长端利率上行往往隐含着经济复苏，随着经济进一步转好，对价值风格分子端层面的提振更为显著，而小盘股在经济复苏阶段由于更具业绩弹性，得以率先走出危机。在三次“熊陡”阶段，市场风格均明显向价值与小盘偏转，从涨跌幅角度看，价值与小盘也均大幅跑赢成长与大盘。从具体行业看，金融周期类行业在熊陡阶段大幅跑赢。金融、工业、能源等金融周期类行业在“熊陡”阶段往往能够跑赢市场，相对标普500的超额涨跌幅中位数分别达17.27%、7.13%和6.86%，而公共事业、通信设备与必选消费表现相对较弱，超额涨跌幅中位数分别为-21.70%、-16.45%和-12.13%。三、未来展望：“熊陡”之后，市场何去何从?回顾过去两次“熊陡”阶段的终结因素，主要包括市场陷入通缩和货币政策转向：2009-2010年的美债“熊陡”因市场通胀预期落空、经济数据恶化重启QE而终结。美联储在金融危机后启动QE，市场避险情绪缓解。依靠货币宽松和大规模的财政刺激，美国经济在2009年出现短暂复苏，美债长端利率大幅上行，呈现“熊陡”格局。但由于通胀水平转负，核心通胀也持续位于2%的美联储通胀目标以下，市场通缩预期升温，且经济数据再度恶化，美联储重启QE购买中长期国债，叠加欧债危机愈演愈烈，大量海外美元回流，进一步打压美债长端利率，短端利率虽因货币收缩预期改善而下行，但下行幅度相对较小，“熊陡”结构随之终结。2012-2014年美债“熊陡”，因货币政策的预期转向而走向终结。2013年5月，美联储主席伯南克释放削减QE信号，引发市场“削减恐慌”，而与此同时，欧债危机已逐渐平息，发达市场经济自2013年二季度后迎来共振复苏，推动美债长端利率上行，市场已普遍预期加息，但由于新兴市场经济仍面临较大增长压力，美联储推迟至2015年12月才首次加息，“熊陡”随着长端利率的逐渐回落再次终结。从“熊陡”阶段后的资产表现看，黄金与美元指数短期存在补涨，而从中长期看黄金与大宗商品相对占优。两次“熊陡”阶段后，黄金价格往往转为上涨，美元指数短期有所回升，但中长期维持弱势；而对于大宗商品和美股则有所分化，第一次“熊陡”阶段后，股市与大宗商品价格承压，而第二次“熊陡”阶段后，美股受加息影响短期回落调整，但中长期大宗商品与美股仍将维持升势。对于本轮美债走势，疫情形势缓解、经济复苏预期、大规模财政刺激和大宗商品价格涨价，共同推升市场通胀预期，成为今年以来长端利率迅速抬升的主要原因：1）美国疫苗接种加速，疫情形势大幅缓解。拜登上台后大力推行疫苗接种计划，目前美国已完成7500万剂新冠疫苗注射，近2500万人完成接种，与之相对应的是美国的疫情形势显著好转，每日新增确诊病例数由年初的30万例下降至5万例左右。2）全球经济共振复苏，美国经济加速修复。随着疫情形势的好转，全球主要经济体制造业PMI也在持续上行，美国2月制造业PMI更是录得60.8，连续9个月位于荣枯线以上，且接近2018年的高点，经济加速修复。3）新一轮大规模财政刺激在途，进一步推升通胀预期。2月27日，美国新一轮1.9万亿美元刺激法案于众议院表决通过，其中包括超过6000亿美元对美国居民的直接补贴，叠加2020年的2.2万亿美元，疫情以来，美国的财政刺激规模已高达4.1万亿美元，大幅推升市场通胀预期。4）大宗商品价格大幅上涨。全球史无前例的货币宽松刺激，叠加经济复苏、需求回暖，以原油和铜为代表的大宗商品迎来新一轮价格上行周期。WTI原油价格目前已重回疫情爆发前水平，铜等工业金属价格逼近历史最高点。本轮美债“熊陡”终结的因素目前尚未出现，长端利率在短期内或将延续上升态势，考虑到联储鸽派立场以及通胀容忍度的提升，货币政策仍将维持宽松，短端利率跟随长端上行的概率较低；二季度之后，随着通胀与增长高点的显现，长端利率也有望迎来下行拐点，届时期限利差走阔的趋势也将迎来扭转。首先，在经济持续复苏和大宗商品价格上涨的带动下，美国通胀水平上升相对确定，类似2009-2010年的“熊陡”因通缩而终结的可能性不大。其次，货币政策难转向，仍将维持宽松。美联储主席鲍威尔近期在多个重要场合反复强调，将继续提供货币政策支持，即便是在看到前景改善的情况下，也将维持债券购买计划不变，暂时不会考虑退出量化宽松。并明确美联储加息条件为失业率降至4.3%以下、通胀达到2.0%、通胀预期超过2.0%。最后，在当前美联储所采用的“平均通胀目标制”的货币政策框架下，对通胀容忍度已大幅提升。当前美国通胀水平自去年3月以来虽有所回升，但仍未恢复至疫情前水平，且距离2%的通胀目标仍存差距，即便未来通胀水平攀升超过2%，美联储也将大概率将“按兵不动”，短端利率在未来一段时间内仍将维持低位。风险提示1、疫情反复；2、宏观经济波动；3、政策超预期变化","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364980372,"gmtCreate":1614793810696,"gmtModify":1703481298517,"author":{"id":"3575422974390347","authorId":"3575422974390347","name":"英大证券李大霄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd6bb51574a13efcab6cf0cadfbfa56","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575422974390347","authorIdStr":"3575422974390347"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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