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Marksg

Marksg

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3主题

0勋章

2021-09-28

$TIGR 20211015 12.5 CALL(TIGR)$补几手call, 这周飞起

2021-09-28

$老虎证券(TIGR)$还在等什么，有子弹今天补，大收益

2021-09-24

$老虎证券(TIGR)$低开我就安心了。

2021-09-20

加油老虎

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-15

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

老虎证券CEO巫天华：科技型券商终将取代传统券商

2021-09-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$当唱空声音占多数的时候就是进场好时机。

2021-09-14

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 要有信仰，小目标17，然后是20，最后一定是新高的，要等待。

2021-09-03

$老虎证券(TIGR)$子弹已经补仓2完毕，老庄请帮忙一起拉升，

2021-09-03

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 这盘整理得不错，后面休市3天

2021-09-02

$老虎证券(TIGR)$感谢回调，让我又有机会买进

2021-09-02

$老虎证券(TIGR)$一飞冲天，我还有些子弹

2021-09-01

$老虎证券(TIGR)$干得好，早日破20

2021-08-30

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 一大片看好财报，最后上车的时候。一发冲天[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]

2021-08-29

问题不大，可以继续虚高

鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议上的讲话（全文）

2021-08-27

$老虎证券(TIGR)$13. 1补仓，等待吃肉

2021-08-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$13.5买入，耐心等待

2021-08-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$挤压

2021-08-24

$老虎证券(TIGR)$至少去20，让我的call飞高点

2021-08-19

$老虎证券(TIGR)$果断建仓，做长期股东

2021-08-17

haha，

@唧唧复唧唧鸭:$Romeo Power, Inc.(RMO)$ 统计一下，各位会割肉还是等反转[流泪] [流泪]

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徐蔚）作为互联网券商中的佼佼者，老虎证券一直都备受业界和投资者的关注。近日，老虎证券发布了第二季度财报，上半年新增入金客户已超历史总和。截至二季度末，老虎证券单季新增入金人数为15.3万，为去年同期的4.5倍，其中超六成来自海外。同时，客户资产和交易规模均是去年同期的两倍多。　　互联网券商何以迎风起飞？老虎证券创始人及CEO巫天华日前接受上证报专访，分享他对这一赛道的见解...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/usstock/20210914/c632683334.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/usstock/20210914/c632683334.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/f0343184bd9b9c963ed02b302442e2b8","article_id":"2167587625","content_text":"上证报中国证券网讯（记者 徐蔚）作为互联网券商中的佼佼者，老虎证券一直都备受业界和投资者的关注。近日，老虎证券发布了第二季度财报，上半年新增入金客户已超历史总和。截至二季度末，老虎证券单季新增入金人数为15.3万，为去年同期的4.5倍，其中超六成来自海外。同时，客户资产和交易规模均是去年同期的两倍多。　　互联网券商何以迎风起飞？老虎证券创始人及CEO巫天华日前接受上证报专访，分享他对这一赛道的见解。　　“科技型券商终将取代传统券商。”巫天华表示，“我们很难改变时代的浪潮，我们所做的只是踏浪而行，顺势而为。”　　在巫天华看来，首先，80后、90后、00后等新生代力量的加入，使投资界也发生了一些变化。“相比老一代投资人，新生代具备更高的财商，更愿意拿真金白银自己去试试。老虎的数据显示，去年有60%的用户都是赚钱的。”　　其次，随着移动互联网的发展，投资者随时随地的交易成为可能，也更容易收集市场信息，这些因素都推动了港美股的“零售化”。而老虎则因为顺应了这波趋势，从而实现了快速发展。　　今年以来，老虎证券的美股股价涨幅已达67%，PE（TTM）高达57.42倍。视线回到A股市场，被视为互联网券商代表的东方财富（300059）的PE（TTM）高达54.42倍，而传统券商龙头中信证券的PE（TTM）只有19.01倍。　　同一个行业中的估值的巨大差异，往往预示着市场对不同公司商业模式和未来前景的价值判断。互联网券商之所以获得远高于中信等传统券商的估值，无疑体现了互联网时代投资者对新型券商模式的超高期待。　　“老虎证券是幸运的，在很年轻的时候就找到了自己的使命，这个使命就是‘科技让投资更美好’。”巫天华表示，老虎的愿景是成为世界一流的科技型券商，第一个十年对标盈透证券，第二个十年老虎将试图成为新科技时代的嘉信理财。\n关注同花顺财经（ths518），获取更多机会\n\n责任编辑：cyf","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":882231271,"gmtCreate":1631694157193,"gmtModify":1631883590434,"author":{"id":"3576833083044318","authorId":"3576833083044318","name":"Marksg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53cce29f082afcb9bde5538b0f462797","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576833083044318","authorIdStr":"3576833083044318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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一大片看好财报，最后上车的时候。一发冲天[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811823978","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":813294416,"gmtCreate":1630203533135,"gmtModify":1704956965413,"author":{"id":"3576833083044318","authorId":"3576833083044318","name":"Marksg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53cce29f082afcb9bde5538b0f462797","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576833083044318","authorIdStr":"3576833083044318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"问题不大，可以继续虚高","listText":"问题不大，可以继续虚高","text":"问题不大，可以继续虚高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813294416","repostId":"1196174599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196174599","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630135069,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196174599?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-28 15:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议上的讲话（全文）","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196174599","media":"智堡Wisburg","summary":"鲍威尔强调，开始缩减购债规模，不能被解读为很快就要加息的信号。美联储朝通胀目标已实现实质进展，但就业还没达标。他重申通胀是暂时的，警告Delta病毒带来近期风险。\n\n自美国经济遭受新冠肺炎疫情的全面冲","content":"<blockquote>\n 鲍威尔强调，开始缩减购债规模，不能被解读为很快就要加息的信号。美联储朝通胀目标已实现实质进展，但就业还没达标。他重申通胀是暂时的，警告Delta病毒带来近期风险。\n</blockquote>\n<p>自美国经济遭受新冠肺炎疫情的全面冲击以来已经过去了17个月。疫情冲击引致了对经济即时性的空前衰退，经济停摆以期控制疫情的蔓延。</p>\n<p>经济的复苏之路困难重重，在此首先要感谢那些在一线与疫情作斗争的人们：那些维持经济运转的重要工人，那些照顾其他需要帮助的人，以及那些医学研究、商业和政府的同僚们，他们共同发现、生产并在创纪录的时间内广泛地分发有效的疫苗。我们也应该记住那些因新冠肺炎而丧生的人以及他们的亲人。</p>\n<p>强有力的政策支持推动了强劲但不平衡的经济复苏——经济的方方面面表现出在历史上颇为不寻常的特征。与经济下行期的典型模式相反，<b>个人总收入不降反升，家庭支出从服务转向制成品。</b>蓬勃的商品需求以及经济重启的力度和速度导致了<b>短缺</b>和<b>瓶颈</b>，使那些遭受疫情限制的供应方无法跟上（需求）。<b>造成的结果是耐用品的通胀上升——而在过去的25年，该部门的年通胀率远低于零。</b>劳动力市场的状况正在改善，但颇为动荡，疫情不仅持续威胁着我们的健康和生命，同时也威胁着经济活动。许多其他发达经济体正在经历类似的异常情况。</p>\n<p>图1：耐用品支出飙升，而服务业支出仍然疲软</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d33ad491e14018d95a1f5073d88db3f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在我今天的评论中，我将专注于美联储在这场疫情动荡中为促进我们的充分就业目标和价格稳定目标所做的努力，并简述我们从历史中吸取的教训、我们从新进数据以及对不断变化的风险的谨慎关切将会如何为今天独特的货币政策挑战提供有用的指导。</p>\n<p>迄今为止的经济衰退和复苏</p>\n<p>疫情引发的经济衰退——是有记载以来持续时间最短但最深的衰退——在两个月的时间里，大约有3000万工人失去了工作。2020年二季度产出的降幅是2007年至2009年的大衰退期间全部降幅的两倍之多。<b>但随后经济复苏的速度超过了预期，产出仅在四个季度后就超过了之前的峰值</b>，还不到上一次大衰退后所需时间的一半。正如通常情况下那样，就业的复苏滞后于产出的复苏；然而，就业的增长也比预期的快。</p>\n<p>图2：劳动力市场复苏中……但复苏仍未完成</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b385dec0ed044253ff95cf264830a4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">经济衰退并没有平等地施加在所有美国人身上，而那些最没有能力承担衰退负担的人则受到了最大的打击。需要指出的是，尽管就业已经取得了进展，<b>失业仍然不成比例地落在服务业部门的低工资工人以及非裔美国人和西班牙裔美国人身上。</b></p>\n<p>复苏的不平衡还可以通过支出的部门转向商品——尤其是电器、家具和汽车等耐用品——而非服务业，特别是从旅游和休闲等领域的服务的角度来看（图1）。受疫情影响，餐厅用餐量下降了45%，航空旅行下降了95%，看牙医的都下降了65%。<b>时至今日，虽然GDP和消费支出已经完全恢复，可服务支出仍然比趋势水平低7%左右。现在的总就业人数比2020年2月的水平低600万，其中500万是在深陷低迷的服务部门所致。</b>相比之下，自复苏开启以来，<b>耐用品的支出蓬勃发展，现在比疫情之前的水平高出约20%。</b>由于需求超过了受疫情影响的供应端，<b>耐用消费品价格的上涨是使通胀率远远超过我们2%的目标的主要因素。</b></p>\n<p>有鉴于经济的持续动荡，一些紧张和意外是不可避免的。货币政策的工作旨在经济度过这个充满挑战的时期时，促进充分就业和价格稳定。我现在要讨论一下实现这些目标的进展。</p>\n<p><b>前路：充分就业</b></p>\n<p>最近几个月，劳动力市场的前景已经大为改观。在经历了去年冬天的动荡之后，今年的就业增长稳步上升，<b>目前在过去的三个月中平均为83.2万人，其中近80万人是服务业就业（图2）。</b>总招聘的速度比疫情前有记载的任何时候都快。<b>职位空缺和辞职的水平处于历史高位，雇主报告说他们无法快速填补职位以满足需求的回潮。</b></p>\n<p>这些对求职者有利的条件应有助于经济填补余下的达至充分就业的空间。失业率已经下降到5.4%，是疫情以来的低点，<b>但仍然过高</b>，而且<b>报告的失业率低估了劳动力市场的松弛程度</b>。长期失业率仍然很高，<b>劳动力参与率的恢复远远落后于劳动力市场的其他部分，而在过去的复苏中也是如此。</b></p>\n<p>随着疫苗接种率的上升，学校重新开学以及失业补贴的到期，一些可能阻碍求职者的因素可能正在消退。虽然Delta疫情重燃了近期的风险，但经济继续向充分就业水平迈进的前景是良好的。</p>\n<p><b>前路：通货膨胀</b></p>\n<p>经济的迅速重启导致通货膨胀的急剧上升。在截止至今年7月的12个月，PCE以及核心PCE通胀率分别为4.2%和3.6%，远远高于我们2%的长期通胀目标。企业和消费者普遍反映价格和工资有上升的压力。当然，通胀处于当前水平是一个隐忧。但对高通胀的担忧会被其他因素所缓和，这些因素表明，<b>持续高企的（通胀）数据可能会被证明是临时性的。</b>做出这样的评估是非常关键且需要（我们）持续不断跟踪的，我们正在仔细监测新进的数据。</p>\n<p>图3：更广泛的通胀指标保持平稳</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de902839b44163ff873d005b8f577e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>通货膨胀的动态是复杂的，我们从一些不同的角度来评估通货膨胀的前景，下面我将讨论这个问题。</p>\n<p>1.迄今为止，缺乏广泛的通货膨胀压力</p>\n<p>通货膨胀的飙升主要是受到疫情和经济重新开放直接影响的几类相对狭窄的商品和服务。<b>仅仅是耐用品就对最近12个月的总体/核心通胀率贡献了大约1%。能源价格伴随强劲的复苏而反弹，为总体通胀率又平添了0.8%，根据长期经验，我们预计这些涨幅的通胀影响是临时性的。</b>此外，一些价格——例如，<b>酒店房间和飞机票的价格在经济衰退期间急剧下降，现在已经回升到接近疫情前的水平。我们在计算通货膨胀时使用的12个月窗口期现在恰好捕捉到了价格的反弹，但没有捕捉到最初的下降，临时地提高了报告的通货膨胀水平。</b>这些影响使测量的通货膨胀率增加了几成，其影响应该会随着时间的推移而消失。</p>\n<p>我们参考了一系列的指标，以了解特定项目的价格上涨是否会外溢转化为广泛的通货膨胀。<b>包括截尾平均和不包括耐用消费品的指标</b>，以及从疫情发生前计算。计算下来的结果通常显示通货膨胀正处于或接近我们2%的长期目标。我们会对通胀压力在经济中更广泛地蔓延的迹象感到担忧。</p>\n<p>图4：长期通胀预期已经快速回升</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb2007e09ce49b7c466f0c30ba5faf7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2.高通胀项目有所缓和</p>\n<p>我们也在直接监测受疫情和经济重启影响最大的特定商品和服务的价格。我们已经看到，在某些情况下，<b>随着供应短缺现象的缓解，价格有所缓和。例如，二手车价格似乎已经稳定下来</b>；事实上，一些价格指标也在开始下降。如果这种情况可以维持下去，就像许多分析者所预测的那样，那么二手车价格将很快拉低通货膨胀，就像它们在过去十年的大部分时间里所呈现的那样。</p>\n<p>同样的通胀上升压力的消散，以及在某些情况下的逆转，似乎有可能在耐用消费品中更普遍地上演。在疫情之前的25年里，耐用消费品的价格实际上是下降的，每年的通货膨胀率平均为负1.9%。随着供应问题开始得到解决，<b>汽车以外的耐用消费品的通货膨胀现在已经放缓，并可能开始下降。耐用品通胀似乎不太可能继续在一段时间内对整体通胀做出重要贡献。</b>我们将寻找支持或削弱这种预期的证据。</p>\n<p>图5：耐用品通胀在疫情前的25年间一直低于服务业通胀</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fce21c760c9a1de0d71c51e36d2935c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>3.工资</p>\n<p>我们还评估了工资增长是否与长期2%的通胀率相一致。工资增长对于支持不断提高的生活水平是必不可少的，且大家乐见于工资增长。但是，如果工资增长的幅度持续地超过生产力增长和通货膨胀的水平，企业可能会将这些涨幅转嫁给客户，<b>这个过程可能会成为在历史上我们常会看到的那种“工资价格螺旋”。</b></p>\n<p>今天，我们几乎没有看到可能带来过度通胀的工资增长的证据。根据劳动力构成变化进行调整的广义工资衡量指标<b>，如就业成本指数（ECI）和亚特兰大工资增长跟踪指标，显示工资上涨的速度似乎与我们的长期通胀目标一致。我们将继续仔细监测工资的进展。</b></p>\n<p>图6：工资增长速度平稳</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f343c75c6b7fd19512b0ddbde26741f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4.长期通胀预期</p>\n<p>政策制定者和分析人士普遍认为，<b>只要长期通胀预期保持稳定，政策就可以也理应用可以摸透通胀的暂时扰动。</b>我们的货币政策框架强调，将长期通胀预期锚定在2%，对充分就业和价格稳定都很重要。</p>\n<p>我们仔细监测了广泛的长期通胀预期指标。这些指标今天处于与我们2%的目标大体一致的水平（图4）。由于对通货膨胀预期的测度单体来看会有噪音，我们也关注各种指标的一致表现。总结这些表现模式的一个方法是理事会工作人员的<b>普遍通货膨胀预期指数（CIE）</b>，<b>它结合了来自广泛的调查和市场指标的信息</b>。这一指数反映了从2014年左右开始，通胀率持续低于2%的时候，通胀预期普遍下降。最近，该指标显示，这种下降趋势出现了可喜的逆转，现在的水平与我们2%的目标更加一致。</p>\n<p>长期通胀预期的变化远远小于实际通胀或短期的预期，<b>这表明家庭、企业和市场参与者也认为目前的高通胀可能被证明是临时性的，而且，在任何情况下，美联储都将把通胀率保持在接近2%的政策目标。</b></p>\n<p>5.过去25年间的全球消解通胀的力量</p>\n<p>最后，值得注意的是，自20世纪90年代以来，许多发达经济体的通货膨胀率即使在经济向好的时候也略低于2%。<b>这种低通货膨胀的模式可能反映了持续的消解通货膨胀的力量，包括技术进步、全球化，或许还有人口因素，以及中央银行对维持价格稳定的更有力且更成功的承诺。</b>在美国，失业率在疫情前的大约两年内一直低于4%，而通货膨胀率保持在2%或以下的水平。工资确实在整个收入范围内有所上升——这是一个好现象，但还不足以将通胀率持续提高到2%。虽然潜在的全球去通胀因素可能会随着时间的推移而变化，<b>但没有什么理由认为它们已经突然逆转或减弱。似乎更有可能的是，随着这场疫情成为历史，它们将继续对通货膨胀产生影响。</b></p>\n<p>图7：上世纪90年代以来，发达经济体通胀长期不达2%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/892afa08335bd2a4167e65ee4629dd06\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>我们将继续通过监测新的通胀数据来检验上述评估。</p>\n<p>总而言之，联储的基线前景是继续向充分就业迈进，通胀率恢复到与我们的目标一致的水平，即通胀率在一段时间内平均为2%。现在让我谈谈基线前景以及相关的风险和不确定性如何影响我们的货币政策制定。</p>\n<p><b>对货币政策的影响</b></p>\n<p>1950年至1980年代初这一段历史时期为管理我们今天面临的风险和不确定性提供了两条重要的经验。1950年代早期的稳定政策告诉货币政策制定者，<b>不要试图抵消可能是临时性的通货膨胀波动。事实上，做出政策回应可能弊大于利，特别是在一个即使在经济好的时候政策利率也更接近有效下界的时代。货币政策对通货膨胀的主要影响可能会在滞后一年或更长时间后出现。如果一个中央银行为了应对那些被证明是暂时的因素而收紧政策，那么主要的政策影响很可能在政策不再必要的时候才会到来。不合时宜的政策举措不必要地减缓了招聘和其他经济活动，并将通胀推至低于预期。</b>今天，由于劳动力市场仍有大量的松弛，而且疫情仍在继续，<b>这种政策错误可能特别有害。</b>我们知道，长时间的失业可能意味着对工人和经济的生产能力的持久伤害。</p>\n<p>然而，历史也曾告诉我们，<b>中央银行不能想当然地认为临时性因素导致的通货膨胀会褪去。</b>上世纪70年代的两个时期，能源和食品价格大幅上涨，在一段时间内提高了总体通胀率。<b>但是，当两者对整体通胀的直接影响消褪以后，核心通胀继续持续地比以前高。一个可能的因素是，公众已经开始普遍预期更高的通货膨胀——这也是我们现在如此仔细地监测通胀预期的原因。</b></p>\n<p>中央银行一直面临着将临时性的通胀波峰与更麻烦的事态发展区分开来的问题，而且有时<b>很难在实时的情况下有信心做到这一点</b>。在这种时候，没有什么可以替代对新进数据和不断变化的风险的仔细关注。如果持续较高的通货膨胀成为一个严重的问题，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）肯定会做出反应，并使用我们的工具来保证通货膨胀运行在符合我们目标的水平上。</p>\n<p>新进数据应该提供更多的证据，表明一些供需失衡的情况正在改善，并提供额外证据表明通货膨胀在持续缓和，特别是受疫情影响最大的商品和服务价格。我们还期望看到持续强劲的就业创造。而且我们将了解更多有关于Delta变种的影响。就目前而言，<b>我相信货币政策已经起到好处；像往常一样，我们准备酌情调整政策以实现我们的目标。</b></p>\n<p>在此我要对货币政策的未来路径作一个总结。FOMC仍然坚定不移地履行我们经常表达的承诺，即在实现全面复苏所需的时间内支持经济。我们去年对我们的长期目标和货币政策策略声明所做的修改，非常适合于应对今天的挑战。</p>\n<p>我们说过，我们将继续以目前的速度购买资产，直到我们看到在实现我们的充分就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性的进一步进展，<b>这里所谓的进展是自去年12月我们首次阐述这一指导意见时开始划定并衡量的。我的观点是，在通货膨胀方面，“实质性的进一步进展”的测试已经通过。</b>在实现充分就业方面也取得了明显进展。<b>在FOMC最近的7月会议上，我和大多数与会者一样认为，如果经济的发展大致如预期，今年开始减少资产购买的步伐可能是合适的。上次记忆迄今的一个月带来了更多的进展，</b>即7月份强劲的就业报告，但同时Delta疫情也在进一步扩散。我们将仔细评估新进的数据和不断变化的风险。即使在我们的资产购买结束后，我们所持有的较长期限的证券将继续支持宽松的金融条件。</p>\n<p>未来减少资产购买的时间和速度<b>将无关于传达加息时间节点的信号</b>，对于这个问题，我们已经<b>阐明了一个不同的且更为严格的“测试”</b>。我们已经说过，我们将继续把联邦基金利率的目标范围保持在目前的水平，直到经济达到与充分就业相一致的条件，并且通货膨胀率已经达到2%，并且在一段时间内有望温和地超过2%。要达到充分就业，<b>我们还有很多事儿要做，而时间将证明我们是否已经在可持续的基础上达到2%的通胀率。</b></p>\n<p>对于我们所服务的公众来说，这是一个充满挑战的时代，因为疫情及其对健康和经济活动造成的前所未有的损失挥之不去。但是，我将以积极的态度对这次演讲收尾。在疫情之前，我们都看到了一个强大的劳动力市场可以为我们的社会带来的非凡益处。<b>尽管当下我们面对着挑战，可经济正走在通往这样一个强大劳动力市场的道路上，有高水平的就业和参与率，广泛的工资增长，以及接近我们价格稳定目标的通货膨胀。</b></p>\n<p>非常感谢。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议上的讲话（全文）\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-28 15:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639086><strong>智堡Wisburg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>鲍威尔强调，开始缩减购债规模，不能被解读为很快就要加息的信号。美联储朝通胀目标已实现实质进展，但就业还没达标。他重申通胀是暂时的，警告Delta病毒带来近期风险。\n\n自美国经济遭受新冠肺炎疫情的全面冲击以来已经过去了17个月。疫情冲击引致了对经济即时性的空前衰退，经济停摆以期控制疫情的蔓延。\n经济的复苏之路困难重重，在此首先要感谢那些在一线与疫情作斗争的人们：那些维持经济运转的重要工人，那些照顾...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639086\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92849ddf94d54bf9e6af60671fe1ef1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639086","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1196174599","content_text":"鲍威尔强调，开始缩减购债规模，不能被解读为很快就要加息的信号。美联储朝通胀目标已实现实质进展，但就业还没达标。他重申通胀是暂时的，警告Delta病毒带来近期风险。\n\n自美国经济遭受新冠肺炎疫情的全面冲击以来已经过去了17个月。疫情冲击引致了对经济即时性的空前衰退，经济停摆以期控制疫情的蔓延。\n经济的复苏之路困难重重，在此首先要感谢那些在一线与疫情作斗争的人们：那些维持经济运转的重要工人，那些照顾其他需要帮助的人，以及那些医学研究、商业和政府的同僚们，他们共同发现、生产并在创纪录的时间内广泛地分发有效的疫苗。我们也应该记住那些因新冠肺炎而丧生的人以及他们的亲人。\n强有力的政策支持推动了强劲但不平衡的经济复苏——经济的方方面面表现出在历史上颇为不寻常的特征。与经济下行期的典型模式相反，个人总收入不降反升，家庭支出从服务转向制成品。蓬勃的商品需求以及经济重启的力度和速度导致了短缺和瓶颈，使那些遭受疫情限制的供应方无法跟上（需求）。造成的结果是耐用品的通胀上升——而在过去的25年，该部门的年通胀率远低于零。劳动力市场的状况正在改善，但颇为动荡，疫情不仅持续威胁着我们的健康和生命，同时也威胁着经济活动。许多其他发达经济体正在经历类似的异常情况。\n图1：耐用品支出飙升，而服务业支出仍然疲软\n\n在我今天的评论中，我将专注于美联储在这场疫情动荡中为促进我们的充分就业目标和价格稳定目标所做的努力，并简述我们从历史中吸取的教训、我们从新进数据以及对不断变化的风险的谨慎关切将会如何为今天独特的货币政策挑战提供有用的指导。\n迄今为止的经济衰退和复苏\n疫情引发的经济衰退——是有记载以来持续时间最短但最深的衰退——在两个月的时间里，大约有3000万工人失去了工作。2020年二季度产出的降幅是2007年至2009年的大衰退期间全部降幅的两倍之多。但随后经济复苏的速度超过了预期，产出仅在四个季度后就超过了之前的峰值，还不到上一次大衰退后所需时间的一半。正如通常情况下那样，就业的复苏滞后于产出的复苏；然而，就业的增长也比预期的快。\n图2：劳动力市场复苏中……但复苏仍未完成\n经济衰退并没有平等地施加在所有美国人身上，而那些最没有能力承担衰退负担的人则受到了最大的打击。需要指出的是，尽管就业已经取得了进展，失业仍然不成比例地落在服务业部门的低工资工人以及非裔美国人和西班牙裔美国人身上。\n复苏的不平衡还可以通过支出的部门转向商品——尤其是电器、家具和汽车等耐用品——而非服务业，特别是从旅游和休闲等领域的服务的角度来看（图1）。受疫情影响，餐厅用餐量下降了45%，航空旅行下降了95%，看牙医的都下降了65%。时至今日，虽然GDP和消费支出已经完全恢复，可服务支出仍然比趋势水平低7%左右。现在的总就业人数比2020年2月的水平低600万，其中500万是在深陷低迷的服务部门所致。相比之下，自复苏开启以来，耐用品的支出蓬勃发展，现在比疫情之前的水平高出约20%。由于需求超过了受疫情影响的供应端，耐用消费品价格的上涨是使通胀率远远超过我们2%的目标的主要因素。\n有鉴于经济的持续动荡，一些紧张和意外是不可避免的。货币政策的工作旨在经济度过这个充满挑战的时期时，促进充分就业和价格稳定。我现在要讨论一下实现这些目标的进展。\n前路：充分就业\n最近几个月，劳动力市场的前景已经大为改观。在经历了去年冬天的动荡之后，今年的就业增长稳步上升，目前在过去的三个月中平均为83.2万人，其中近80万人是服务业就业（图2）。总招聘的速度比疫情前有记载的任何时候都快。职位空缺和辞职的水平处于历史高位，雇主报告说他们无法快速填补职位以满足需求的回潮。\n这些对求职者有利的条件应有助于经济填补余下的达至充分就业的空间。失业率已经下降到5.4%，是疫情以来的低点，但仍然过高，而且报告的失业率低估了劳动力市场的松弛程度。长期失业率仍然很高，劳动力参与率的恢复远远落后于劳动力市场的其他部分，而在过去的复苏中也是如此。\n随着疫苗接种率的上升，学校重新开学以及失业补贴的到期，一些可能阻碍求职者的因素可能正在消退。虽然Delta疫情重燃了近期的风险，但经济继续向充分就业水平迈进的前景是良好的。\n前路：通货膨胀\n经济的迅速重启导致通货膨胀的急剧上升。在截止至今年7月的12个月，PCE以及核心PCE通胀率分别为4.2%和3.6%，远远高于我们2%的长期通胀目标。企业和消费者普遍反映价格和工资有上升的压力。当然，通胀处于当前水平是一个隐忧。但对高通胀的担忧会被其他因素所缓和，这些因素表明，持续高企的（通胀）数据可能会被证明是临时性的。做出这样的评估是非常关键且需要（我们）持续不断跟踪的，我们正在仔细监测新进的数据。\n图3：更广泛的通胀指标保持平稳\n\n通货膨胀的动态是复杂的，我们从一些不同的角度来评估通货膨胀的前景，下面我将讨论这个问题。\n1.迄今为止，缺乏广泛的通货膨胀压力\n通货膨胀的飙升主要是受到疫情和经济重新开放直接影响的几类相对狭窄的商品和服务。仅仅是耐用品就对最近12个月的总体/核心通胀率贡献了大约1%。能源价格伴随强劲的复苏而反弹，为总体通胀率又平添了0.8%，根据长期经验，我们预计这些涨幅的通胀影响是临时性的。此外，一些价格——例如，酒店房间和飞机票的价格在经济衰退期间急剧下降，现在已经回升到接近疫情前的水平。我们在计算通货膨胀时使用的12个月窗口期现在恰好捕捉到了价格的反弹，但没有捕捉到最初的下降，临时地提高了报告的通货膨胀水平。这些影响使测量的通货膨胀率增加了几成，其影响应该会随着时间的推移而消失。\n我们参考了一系列的指标，以了解特定项目的价格上涨是否会外溢转化为广泛的通货膨胀。包括截尾平均和不包括耐用消费品的指标，以及从疫情发生前计算。计算下来的结果通常显示通货膨胀正处于或接近我们2%的长期目标。我们会对通胀压力在经济中更广泛地蔓延的迹象感到担忧。\n图4：长期通胀预期已经快速回升\n\n2.高通胀项目有所缓和\n我们也在直接监测受疫情和经济重启影响最大的特定商品和服务的价格。我们已经看到，在某些情况下，随着供应短缺现象的缓解，价格有所缓和。例如，二手车价格似乎已经稳定下来；事实上，一些价格指标也在开始下降。如果这种情况可以维持下去，就像许多分析者所预测的那样，那么二手车价格将很快拉低通货膨胀，就像它们在过去十年的大部分时间里所呈现的那样。\n同样的通胀上升压力的消散，以及在某些情况下的逆转，似乎有可能在耐用消费品中更普遍地上演。在疫情之前的25年里，耐用消费品的价格实际上是下降的，每年的通货膨胀率平均为负1.9%。随着供应问题开始得到解决，汽车以外的耐用消费品的通货膨胀现在已经放缓，并可能开始下降。耐用品通胀似乎不太可能继续在一段时间内对整体通胀做出重要贡献。我们将寻找支持或削弱这种预期的证据。\n图5：耐用品通胀在疫情前的25年间一直低于服务业通胀\n\n3.工资\n我们还评估了工资增长是否与长期2%的通胀率相一致。工资增长对于支持不断提高的生活水平是必不可少的，且大家乐见于工资增长。但是，如果工资增长的幅度持续地超过生产力增长和通货膨胀的水平，企业可能会将这些涨幅转嫁给客户，这个过程可能会成为在历史上我们常会看到的那种“工资价格螺旋”。\n今天，我们几乎没有看到可能带来过度通胀的工资增长的证据。根据劳动力构成变化进行调整的广义工资衡量指标，如就业成本指数（ECI）和亚特兰大工资增长跟踪指标，显示工资上涨的速度似乎与我们的长期通胀目标一致。我们将继续仔细监测工资的进展。\n图6：工资增长速度平稳\n\n4.长期通胀预期\n政策制定者和分析人士普遍认为，只要长期通胀预期保持稳定，政策就可以也理应用可以摸透通胀的暂时扰动。我们的货币政策框架强调，将长期通胀预期锚定在2%，对充分就业和价格稳定都很重要。\n我们仔细监测了广泛的长期通胀预期指标。这些指标今天处于与我们2%的目标大体一致的水平（图4）。由于对通货膨胀预期的测度单体来看会有噪音，我们也关注各种指标的一致表现。总结这些表现模式的一个方法是理事会工作人员的普遍通货膨胀预期指数（CIE），它结合了来自广泛的调查和市场指标的信息。这一指数反映了从2014年左右开始，通胀率持续低于2%的时候，通胀预期普遍下降。最近，该指标显示，这种下降趋势出现了可喜的逆转，现在的水平与我们2%的目标更加一致。\n长期通胀预期的变化远远小于实际通胀或短期的预期，这表明家庭、企业和市场参与者也认为目前的高通胀可能被证明是临时性的，而且，在任何情况下，美联储都将把通胀率保持在接近2%的政策目标。\n5.过去25年间的全球消解通胀的力量\n最后，值得注意的是，自20世纪90年代以来，许多发达经济体的通货膨胀率即使在经济向好的时候也略低于2%。这种低通货膨胀的模式可能反映了持续的消解通货膨胀的力量，包括技术进步、全球化，或许还有人口因素，以及中央银行对维持价格稳定的更有力且更成功的承诺。在美国，失业率在疫情前的大约两年内一直低于4%，而通货膨胀率保持在2%或以下的水平。工资确实在整个收入范围内有所上升——这是一个好现象，但还不足以将通胀率持续提高到2%。虽然潜在的全球去通胀因素可能会随着时间的推移而变化，但没有什么理由认为它们已经突然逆转或减弱。似乎更有可能的是，随着这场疫情成为历史，它们将继续对通货膨胀产生影响。\n图7：上世纪90年代以来，发达经济体通胀长期不达2%\n\n我们将继续通过监测新的通胀数据来检验上述评估。\n总而言之，联储的基线前景是继续向充分就业迈进，通胀率恢复到与我们的目标一致的水平，即通胀率在一段时间内平均为2%。现在让我谈谈基线前景以及相关的风险和不确定性如何影响我们的货币政策制定。\n对货币政策的影响\n1950年至1980年代初这一段历史时期为管理我们今天面临的风险和不确定性提供了两条重要的经验。1950年代早期的稳定政策告诉货币政策制定者，不要试图抵消可能是临时性的通货膨胀波动。事实上，做出政策回应可能弊大于利，特别是在一个即使在经济好的时候政策利率也更接近有效下界的时代。货币政策对通货膨胀的主要影响可能会在滞后一年或更长时间后出现。如果一个中央银行为了应对那些被证明是暂时的因素而收紧政策，那么主要的政策影响很可能在政策不再必要的时候才会到来。不合时宜的政策举措不必要地减缓了招聘和其他经济活动，并将通胀推至低于预期。今天，由于劳动力市场仍有大量的松弛，而且疫情仍在继续，这种政策错误可能特别有害。我们知道，长时间的失业可能意味着对工人和经济的生产能力的持久伤害。\n然而，历史也曾告诉我们，中央银行不能想当然地认为临时性因素导致的通货膨胀会褪去。上世纪70年代的两个时期，能源和食品价格大幅上涨，在一段时间内提高了总体通胀率。但是，当两者对整体通胀的直接影响消褪以后，核心通胀继续持续地比以前高。一个可能的因素是，公众已经开始普遍预期更高的通货膨胀——这也是我们现在如此仔细地监测通胀预期的原因。\n中央银行一直面临着将临时性的通胀波峰与更麻烦的事态发展区分开来的问题，而且有时很难在实时的情况下有信心做到这一点。在这种时候，没有什么可以替代对新进数据和不断变化的风险的仔细关注。如果持续较高的通货膨胀成为一个严重的问题，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）肯定会做出反应，并使用我们的工具来保证通货膨胀运行在符合我们目标的水平上。\n新进数据应该提供更多的证据，表明一些供需失衡的情况正在改善，并提供额外证据表明通货膨胀在持续缓和，特别是受疫情影响最大的商品和服务价格。我们还期望看到持续强劲的就业创造。而且我们将了解更多有关于Delta变种的影响。就目前而言，我相信货币政策已经起到好处；像往常一样，我们准备酌情调整政策以实现我们的目标。\n在此我要对货币政策的未来路径作一个总结。FOMC仍然坚定不移地履行我们经常表达的承诺，即在实现全面复苏所需的时间内支持经济。我们去年对我们的长期目标和货币政策策略声明所做的修改，非常适合于应对今天的挑战。\n我们说过，我们将继续以目前的速度购买资产，直到我们看到在实现我们的充分就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性的进一步进展，这里所谓的进展是自去年12月我们首次阐述这一指导意见时开始划定并衡量的。我的观点是，在通货膨胀方面，“实质性的进一步进展”的测试已经通过。在实现充分就业方面也取得了明显进展。在FOMC最近的7月会议上，我和大多数与会者一样认为，如果经济的发展大致如预期，今年开始减少资产购买的步伐可能是合适的。上次记忆迄今的一个月带来了更多的进展，即7月份强劲的就业报告，但同时Delta疫情也在进一步扩散。我们将仔细评估新进的数据和不断变化的风险。即使在我们的资产购买结束后，我们所持有的较长期限的证券将继续支持宽松的金融条件。\n未来减少资产购买的时间和速度将无关于传达加息时间节点的信号，对于这个问题，我们已经阐明了一个不同的且更为严格的“测试”。我们已经说过，我们将继续把联邦基金利率的目标范围保持在目前的水平，直到经济达到与充分就业相一致的条件，并且通货膨胀率已经达到2%，并且在一段时间内有望温和地超过2%。要达到充分就业，我们还有很多事儿要做，而时间将证明我们是否已经在可持续的基础上达到2%的通胀率。\n对于我们所服务的公众来说，这是一个充满挑战的时代，因为疫情及其对健康和经济活动造成的前所未有的损失挥之不去。但是，我将以积极的态度对这次演讲收尾。在疫情之前，我们都看到了一个强大的劳动力市场可以为我们的社会带来的非凡益处。尽管当下我们面对着挑战，可经济正走在通往这样一个强大劳动力市场的道路上，有高水平的就业和参与率，广泛的工资增长，以及接近我们价格稳定目标的通货膨胀。\n非常感谢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":819532758,"gmtCreate":1630076467674,"gmtModify":1704955657848,"author":{"id":"3576833083044318","authorId":"3576833083044318","name":"Marksg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53cce29f082afcb9bde5538b0f462797","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576833083044318","authorIdStr":"3576833083044318"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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