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山顶资本创始人

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山顶资本创始人

11-10

呵呵//@ruan_7128:没有大陆的稀土，那有台积电！

@ruan_7128:没有大陆的稀土，那有台积电！

山顶资本创始人

10-11

就是干，哈哈

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山顶资本创始人

07-27

自娱自乐

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山顶资本创始人

07-12

美国党就是扯淡，知道什么叫赢者通吃吗

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山顶资本创始人

2024-10-25

$白银主连 2412(SImain)$

山顶资本创始人

2024-08-31

。 9 08 79

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山顶资本创始人

2024-06-24

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

伟大的公司是熬出来的！英伟达和特斯拉就是最好的例子

山顶资本创始人

2024-04-07

。

山顶资本创始人

2024-03-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@美港股观察社:在人工智能竞赛中躺赢的玩家

山顶资本创始人

2024-01-15

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

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山顶资本创始人

2024-01-15

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

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山顶资本创始人

2024-01-12

。

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山顶资本创始人

2024-01-09

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

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山顶资本创始人

2023-12-30

。

山顶资本创始人

2023-12-24

@

山顶资本创始人

2023-12-24

，

山顶资本创始人

2023-12-21

@

山顶资本创始人

2023-12-21

有个屁用

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山顶资本创始人

2023-11-23

干的漂亮！

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山顶资本创始人

2023-11-05

2000是底

抱歉，原内容已删除

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79","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344175171743832","repostId":"2463997507","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320042161877200,"gmtCreate":1719165375740,"gmtModify":1719165377294,"author":{"id":"3576931560626059","authorId":"3576931560626059","name":"山顶资本创始人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38eb025f6994bb6a67a2c3e2c0d7c2ba","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576931560626059","authorIdStr":"3576931560626059"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320042161877200","repostId":"1124619355","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124619355","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1719141190,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124619355?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-23 19:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伟大的公司是熬出来的！英伟达和特斯拉就是最好的例子","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124619355","media":"巴伦中文","summary":"无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。图一：英伟达市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日图一：英伟达市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日图二是特斯拉市值比例变化的曲线，横轴代表时间，纵轴是对应时间公司市值占历史最大市值的比例，从曲线可以看到，以2022年3月31日的市值高点为参照点，在其近12年的统计中，其市值的80%都是在1年半内创造的，约占总时长的12.5%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。</strong></p></blockquote><p>了解资本市场的基本特征是投资成功的关键，但做到这一点并不容易；此外，正如“一千个读者眼中有一千个哈姆雷特”，在持有不同投资理念的投资者眼中，看到的资本市场也是不一样的。在本文中，笔者将从一个长期价值投资实践者的角度分享自己对资本市场的两个重要特征的认知，以及由此带来对投资实操的启示。</p><h2 id=\"id_701888786\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">一、上市公司市值的横向非对称正态分布分析</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在风险管理专家塔勒布《黑天鹅》一书中，塔勒布创造了“平均斯坦”及“极端斯坦”这两个概念，用以形容现实中所见的大多数事物的分布规律；（1）“平均斯坦”代表个体之间的差异不会太大，例如在生理领域，一个班级中，每个学生的身高跟班级的平均身高不会相差太多；（2）“极端斯坦”代表个体之间的差异可以很大，例如在经济领域，人的财富分布，世界首富和世界的平均财富多寡有天壤之别。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在资本市场中，上市公司市值的分布同样属于“极端斯坦”，根据世界证券交易所联合会（World Federation of Exchanges，简称为WFE）对2023年二季度全球交易所市值的统计，全球股票市值约为109万亿美元，具体分布如下表：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85118ad082a4694a7fab2f03aeefac92\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"795\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从微观上来看，交易所内公司市值的分布同样是非对称的（见表二），其中，美股近5900家上市公司（不含柜台交易）中，<strong>前十家</strong>公司的市值占整个交易所的22.64%；而在越南交易所的422家上市公司中，<strong>前十家</strong>公司的市值占比高达77.21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>由此可见，资本市场的第一个基本特征是：无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ef5559aa0f3691fd551327e59248a4e\" title=\"数据来源：Wind，统计日期：2024年2月27日\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\"/><span>数据来源：Wind，统计日期：2024年2月27日</span></p><h2 id=\"id_872073\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">二、上市公司市值的纵向非线性变化</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在价值投资的原理中，公司的价格（市值）由公司的价值（盈利能力或自由现金流）决定，且价格围绕着价值波动。然而，价值的变动远非是线性的，由此，价格的波动也呈现出非线性且异常剧烈的特征。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">人类社会先后经历农业革命、工业革命以及信息技术革命（目前正处于人工智能革命的开端），公司价值变化的非线性特征愈加明显。<strong>对投资者而言，如果错过了公司价值/市值非线性变化的机会，那很可能就错过了投资该公司大部分的收益，我们通过两个例子来体现这个特征：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">（1）图一是英伟达市值比例变化的曲线，从曲线可以看到，在长达近25年的统计中，英伟达80%的市值都是在2023年至今（2024年6月18日）创造的，约占统计时长的<strong>5.88%</strong>。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5bbc78131baa656a8c65148d483e3f\" title=\"图一：英伟达市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"628\"/><span>图一：英伟达市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">（2）图二是特斯拉市值比例变化的曲线，横轴代表时间，纵轴是对应时间公司市值占历史最大市值的比例，从曲线可以看到，以2022年3月31日的市值高点为参照点，在其近12年的统计中，其市值的80%都是在1年半内创造的，约占总时长的<strong>12.5%</strong>。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2735fe11ab009096c20484a057e8b63\" title=\"图二：特斯拉市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日\" tg-width=\"1034\" tg-height=\"630\"/><span>图二：特斯拉市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>为此，资本市场的第二个基本特征是：公司市值的变化形式与商业模式有关，从传统企业到科技型企业，市值变化的非线性特征愈加明显。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1903972016\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">三、市值分布及变化特征的启示</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">认知的目的是为了指导实践，上市公司市值分布及变化的特征蕴含着对我们投资活动至关重要的启示：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1、无论是全球资本市场的市值分布还是单一市场的市值分布，都体现了投资世界横向非对称正态分布的特征，对于投资者来说，<strong>主动选择</strong>关键的国家、关键的行业以及关键的公司往往是收益的最大来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2、中国有句俗话说：“三年不开张，开张吃三年”，粗略的看，开一次张要管够六年，这就体现了时机的重要性；我们通过回顾很多科技企业的市值变化，尤其体现了这个特征，这种非线性的市值变化给投资者带来了重要的启示。首先，它强调了长期投资和对公司基本面深入研究的重要性。仅仅关注短期的价格波动可能会错过那些具有长期增长潜力的公司。其次，它也提醒投资者需要对市场情绪和技术趋势有深刻的理解，以便在市值增长的早期阶段识别并投资于那些真正具有颠覆性潜力的公司。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1718164085300","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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}\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伟大的公司是熬出来的！英伟达和特斯拉就是最好的例子\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-23 19:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mn2i_bV60MTIoLG6g6QGZA?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D><strong>巴伦中文</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。了解资本市场的基本特征是投资成功的关键，但做到这一点并不容易；此外，正如“一千个读者眼中有一千个哈姆雷特”，在持有不同投资理念的投资者眼中，看到的资本市场也是不一样的。在本文中，笔者将从一个长期价值投资实践者的角度分享自己对资本市场的两个重要特征的认知，以及由此带来对投资实操的启示。一、上市公司市值的横向非对称正态分布分析在风险管理专家塔勒布...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mn2i_bV60MTIoLG6g6QGZA?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6831b46fbddd05cb5c7b958d7788a59","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mn2i_bV60MTIoLG6g6QGZA?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124619355","content_text":"无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。了解资本市场的基本特征是投资成功的关键，但做到这一点并不容易；此外，正如“一千个读者眼中有一千个哈姆雷特”，在持有不同投资理念的投资者眼中，看到的资本市场也是不一样的。在本文中，笔者将从一个长期价值投资实践者的角度分享自己对资本市场的两个重要特征的认知，以及由此带来对投资实操的启示。一、上市公司市值的横向非对称正态分布分析在风险管理专家塔勒布《黑天鹅》一书中，塔勒布创造了“平均斯坦”及“极端斯坦”这两个概念，用以形容现实中所见的大多数事物的分布规律；（1）“平均斯坦”代表个体之间的差异不会太大，例如在生理领域，一个班级中，每个学生的身高跟班级的平均身高不会相差太多；（2）“极端斯坦”代表个体之间的差异可以很大，例如在经济领域，人的财富分布，世界首富和世界的平均财富多寡有天壤之别。在资本市场中，上市公司市值的分布同样属于“极端斯坦”，根据世界证券交易所联合会（World Federation of Exchanges，简称为WFE）对2023年二季度全球交易所市值的统计，全球股票市值约为109万亿美元，具体分布如下表：从微观上来看，交易所内公司市值的分布同样是非对称的（见表二），其中，美股近5900家上市公司（不含柜台交易）中，前十家公司的市值占整个交易所的22.64%；而在越南交易所的422家上市公司中，前十家公司的市值占比高达77.21%。由此可见，资本市场的第一个基本特征是：无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。数据来源：Wind，统计日期：2024年2月27日二、上市公司市值的纵向非线性变化在价值投资的原理中，公司的价格（市值）由公司的价值（盈利能力或自由现金流）决定，且价格围绕着价值波动。然而，价值的变动远非是线性的，由此，价格的波动也呈现出非线性且异常剧烈的特征。人类社会先后经历农业革命、工业革命以及信息技术革命（目前正处于人工智能革命的开端），公司价值变化的非线性特征愈加明显。对投资者而言，如果错过了公司价值/市值非线性变化的机会，那很可能就错过了投资该公司大部分的收益，我们通过两个例子来体现这个特征：（1）图一是英伟达市值比例变化的曲线，从曲线可以看到，在长达近25年的统计中，英伟达80%的市值都是在2023年至今（2024年6月18日）创造的，约占统计时长的5.88%。 图一：英伟达市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日（2）图二是特斯拉市值比例变化的曲线，横轴代表时间，纵轴是对应时间公司市值占历史最大市值的比例，从曲线可以看到，以2022年3月31日的市值高点为参照点，在其近12年的统计中，其市值的80%都是在1年半内创造的，约占总时长的12.5%。 图二：特斯拉市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日为此，资本市场的第二个基本特征是：公司市值的变化形式与商业模式有关，从传统企业到科技型企业，市值变化的非线性特征愈加明显。三、市值分布及变化特征的启示认知的目的是为了指导实践，上市公司市值分布及变化的特征蕴含着对我们投资活动至关重要的启示：1、无论是全球资本市场的市值分布还是单一市场的市值分布，都体现了投资世界横向非对称正态分布的特征，对于投资者来说，主动选择关键的国家、关键的行业以及关键的公司往往是收益的最大来源。2、中国有句俗话说：“三年不开张，开张吃三年”，粗略的看，开一次张要管够六年，这就体现了时机的重要性；我们通过回顾很多科技企业的市值变化，尤其体现了这个特征，这种非线性的市值变化给投资者带来了重要的启示。首先，它强调了长期投资和对公司基本面深入研究的重要性。仅仅关注短期的价格波动可能会错过那些具有长期增长潜力的公司。其次，它也提醒投资者需要对市场情绪和技术趋势有深刻的理解，以便在市值增长的早期阶段识别并投资于那些真正具有颠覆性潜力的公司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1,"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":292446580183104,"gmtCreate":1712424035281,"gmtModify":1712424038488,"author":{"id":"3576931560626059","authorId":"3576931560626059","name":"山顶资本创始人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38eb025f6994bb6a67a2c3e2c0d7c2ba","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576931560626059","authorIdStr":"3576931560626059"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b39a8532d1e6fd175e967fcf0f3ee9","width":"860","height":"28422"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/292446580183104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":282729549791240,"gmtCreate":1710054153812,"gmtModify":1710054155216,"author":{"id":"3576931560626059","authorId":"3576931560626059","name":"山顶资本创始人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38eb025f6994bb6a67a2c3e2c0d7c2ba","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576931560626059","authorIdStr":"3576931560626059"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282729549791240","repostId":"281695021048128","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":281695021048128,"gmtCreate":1709801663399,"gmtModify":1709816768217,"author":{"id":"3519157433193136","authorId":"3519157433193136","name":"美港股观察社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfcc85fddcd77379cda6138d51be4c17","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519157433193136","authorIdStr":"3519157433193136"},"themes":[],"title":"在人工智能竞赛中躺赢的玩家","htmlText":"有外国分析师坦言，阿斯麦可能是人工智能竞赛的最大赢家。因为阿斯麦的光刻机龙头地位，这让所有想要生产AI芯片的芯片制造商都无法绕不开他！ 作者：Simple Investment Ideas 阿斯麦是公认的光刻设备供应商龙头，用于生产微芯片和集成电路。阿斯麦的机器是半导体制造业的关键部件，使台积电和三星等半导体公司能够制造出强大的芯片。 在所有参与半导体行业的公司中，阿斯麦可能是从人工智能热潮中受益最多的公司。与其他半导体行业的顶级公司不同，阿斯麦在先进的EUV光刻技术方面几乎处于垄断地位。该公司甚至在相对不太先进的DUV光刻领域占据主导地位。这意味着在可预见的未来，阿斯麦很可能占据光刻领域的绝大部分增长。 不可逾越的壕沟 目前，阿斯麦可以说是拥有所有公司中最大的技术护城河。阿斯麦生产的先进光刻机在设计上非常复杂，甚至几乎不可能复制这种技术。毕竟，这些机器负责制造单纳米芯片，它们本身就是目前世界上最先进的技术之一。 阿斯麦光刻机通常每台耗资数亿美元，其最新的高NA光刻机耗资高达3.8亿美元。制造这种机器所涉及的复杂程度确实令人难以置信，因为一台机器可能涉及数十万个不同的部件。此外，其中许多组件本身就是技术奇迹。 制造这种机器所涉及的复杂性和技术难题，使阿斯麦多年来慢慢扩大了与竞争对手之间的差距。就目前的情况来看，似乎没有竞争对手愿意涉足这个领域，这使得阿斯麦在更复杂的机器上继续创新，从而进一步扩大了差距。 来源：阿斯麦 捕捉AI繁荣的所有增长空间 鉴于阿斯麦在先进光刻机领域近乎垄断的地位，该公司处于独特的地位，可以抓住人工智能热潮的几乎所有好处。虽然有一些公司生产光刻机，如佳能和尼康，但这些公司专注于较不先进和较老的DUV光刻技术。 随着人工智能继续推动对更小纳米芯片的需求，只有阿斯麦的先进机器才能满足这种需求。因此，该公司将不必担心竞争对手削减利润或抢走需求。阿斯麦在研发方","listText":"有外国分析师坦言，阿斯麦可能是人工智能竞赛的最大赢家。因为阿斯麦的光刻机龙头地位，这让所有想要生产AI芯片的芯片制造商都无法绕不开他！ 作者：Simple Investment Ideas 阿斯麦是公认的光刻设备供应商龙头，用于生产微芯片和集成电路。阿斯麦的机器是半导体制造业的关键部件，使台积电和三星等半导体公司能够制造出强大的芯片。 在所有参与半导体行业的公司中，阿斯麦可能是从人工智能热潮中受益最多的公司。与其他半导体行业的顶级公司不同，阿斯麦在先进的EUV光刻技术方面几乎处于垄断地位。该公司甚至在相对不太先进的DUV光刻领域占据主导地位。这意味着在可预见的未来，阿斯麦很可能占据光刻领域的绝大部分增长。 不可逾越的壕沟 目前，阿斯麦可以说是拥有所有公司中最大的技术护城河。阿斯麦生产的先进光刻机在设计上非常复杂，甚至几乎不可能复制这种技术。毕竟，这些机器负责制造单纳米芯片，它们本身就是目前世界上最先进的技术之一。 阿斯麦光刻机通常每台耗资数亿美元，其最新的高NA光刻机耗资高达3.8亿美元。制造这种机器所涉及的复杂程度确实令人难以置信，因为一台机器可能涉及数十万个不同的部件。此外，其中许多组件本身就是技术奇迹。 制造这种机器所涉及的复杂性和技术难题，使阿斯麦多年来慢慢扩大了与竞争对手之间的差距。就目前的情况来看，似乎没有竞争对手愿意涉足这个领域，这使得阿斯麦在更复杂的机器上继续创新，从而进一步扩大了差距。 来源：阿斯麦 捕捉AI繁荣的所有增长空间 鉴于阿斯麦在先进光刻机领域近乎垄断的地位，该公司处于独特的地位，可以抓住人工智能热潮的几乎所有好处。虽然有一些公司生产光刻机，如佳能和尼康，但这些公司专注于较不先进和较老的DUV光刻技术。 随着人工智能继续推动对更小纳米芯片的需求，只有阿斯麦的先进机器才能满足这种需求。因此，该公司将不必担心竞争对手削减利润或抢走需求。阿斯麦在研发方","text":"有外国分析师坦言，阿斯麦可能是人工智能竞赛的最大赢家。因为阿斯麦的光刻机龙头地位，这让所有想要生产AI芯片的芯片制造商都无法绕不开他！ 作者：Simple Investment Ideas 阿斯麦是公认的光刻设备供应商龙头，用于生产微芯片和集成电路。阿斯麦的机器是半导体制造业的关键部件，使台积电和三星等半导体公司能够制造出强大的芯片。 在所有参与半导体行业的公司中，阿斯麦可能是从人工智能热潮中受益最多的公司。与其他半导体行业的顶级公司不同，阿斯麦在先进的EUV光刻技术方面几乎处于垄断地位。该公司甚至在相对不太先进的DUV光刻领域占据主导地位。这意味着在可预见的未来，阿斯麦很可能占据光刻领域的绝大部分增长。 不可逾越的壕沟 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79","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344175171743832","repostId":"2463997507","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320042161877200,"gmtCreate":1719165375740,"gmtModify":1719165377294,"author":{"id":"3576931560626059","authorId":"3576931560626059","name":"山顶资本创始人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38eb025f6994bb6a67a2c3e2c0d7c2ba","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576931560626059","idStr":"3576931560626059"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320042161877200","repostId":"1124619355","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124619355","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1719141190,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124619355?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-23 19:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伟大的公司是熬出来的！英伟达和特斯拉就是最好的例子","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124619355","media":"巴伦中文","summary":"无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。图一：英伟达市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日图一：英伟达市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日图二是特斯拉市值比例变化的曲线，横轴代表时间，纵轴是对应时间公司市值占历史最大市值的比例，从曲线可以看到，以2022年3月31日的市值高点为参照点，在其近12年的统计中，其市值的80%都是在1年半内创造的，约占总时长的12.5%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。</strong></p></blockquote><p>了解资本市场的基本特征是投资成功的关键，但做到这一点并不容易；此外，正如“一千个读者眼中有一千个哈姆雷特”，在持有不同投资理念的投资者眼中，看到的资本市场也是不一样的。在本文中，笔者将从一个长期价值投资实践者的角度分享自己对资本市场的两个重要特征的认知，以及由此带来对投资实操的启示。</p><h2 id=\"id_701888786\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">一、上市公司市值的横向非对称正态分布分析</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在风险管理专家塔勒布《黑天鹅》一书中，塔勒布创造了“平均斯坦”及“极端斯坦”这两个概念，用以形容现实中所见的大多数事物的分布规律；（1）“平均斯坦”代表个体之间的差异不会太大，例如在生理领域，一个班级中，每个学生的身高跟班级的平均身高不会相差太多；（2）“极端斯坦”代表个体之间的差异可以很大，例如在经济领域，人的财富分布，世界首富和世界的平均财富多寡有天壤之别。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在资本市场中，上市公司市值的分布同样属于“极端斯坦”，根据世界证券交易所联合会（World Federation of Exchanges，简称为WFE）对2023年二季度全球交易所市值的统计，全球股票市值约为109万亿美元，具体分布如下表：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85118ad082a4694a7fab2f03aeefac92\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"795\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从微观上来看，交易所内公司市值的分布同样是非对称的（见表二），其中，美股近5900家上市公司（不含柜台交易）中，<strong>前十家</strong>公司的市值占整个交易所的22.64%；而在越南交易所的422家上市公司中，<strong>前十家</strong>公司的市值占比高达77.21%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>由此可见，资本市场的第一个基本特征是：无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ef5559aa0f3691fd551327e59248a4e\" title=\"数据来源：Wind，统计日期：2024年2月27日\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"704\"/><span>数据来源：Wind，统计日期：2024年2月27日</span></p><h2 id=\"id_872073\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">二、上市公司市值的纵向非线性变化</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在价值投资的原理中，公司的价格（市值）由公司的价值（盈利能力或自由现金流）决定，且价格围绕着价值波动。然而，价值的变动远非是线性的，由此，价格的波动也呈现出非线性且异常剧烈的特征。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">人类社会先后经历农业革命、工业革命以及信息技术革命（目前正处于人工智能革命的开端），公司价值变化的非线性特征愈加明显。<strong>对投资者而言，如果错过了公司价值/市值非线性变化的机会，那很可能就错过了投资该公司大部分的收益，我们通过两个例子来体现这个特征：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">（1）图一是英伟达市值比例变化的曲线，从曲线可以看到，在长达近25年的统计中，英伟达80%的市值都是在2023年至今（2024年6月18日）创造的，约占统计时长的<strong>5.88%</strong>。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5bbc78131baa656a8c65148d483e3f\" title=\"图一：英伟达市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"628\"/><span>图一：英伟达市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">（2）图二是特斯拉市值比例变化的曲线，横轴代表时间，纵轴是对应时间公司市值占历史最大市值的比例，从曲线可以看到，以2022年3月31日的市值高点为参照点，在其近12年的统计中，其市值的80%都是在1年半内创造的，约占总时长的<strong>12.5%</strong>。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2735fe11ab009096c20484a057e8b63\" title=\"图二：特斯拉市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日\" tg-width=\"1034\" tg-height=\"630\"/><span>图二：特斯拉市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日</span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>为此，资本市场的第二个基本特征是：公司市值的变化形式与商业模式有关，从传统企业到科技型企业，市值变化的非线性特征愈加明显。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1903972016\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">三、市值分布及变化特征的启示</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">认知的目的是为了指导实践，上市公司市值分布及变化的特征蕴含着对我们投资活动至关重要的启示：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1、无论是全球资本市场的市值分布还是单一市场的市值分布，都体现了投资世界横向非对称正态分布的特征，对于投资者来说，<strong>主动选择</strong>关键的国家、关键的行业以及关键的公司往往是收益的最大来源。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2、中国有句俗话说：“三年不开张，开张吃三年”，粗略的看，开一次张要管够六年，这就体现了时机的重要性；我们通过回顾很多科技企业的市值变化，尤其体现了这个特征，这种非线性的市值变化给投资者带来了重要的启示。首先，它强调了长期投资和对公司基本面深入研究的重要性。仅仅关注短期的价格波动可能会错过那些具有长期增长潜力的公司。其次，它也提醒投资者需要对市场情绪和技术趋势有深刻的理解，以便在市值增长的早期阶段识别并投资于那些真正具有颠覆性潜力的公司。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1718164085300","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伟大的公司是熬出来的！英伟达和特斯拉就是最好的例子\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-23 19:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mn2i_bV60MTIoLG6g6QGZA?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D><strong>巴伦中文</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。了解资本市场的基本特征是投资成功的关键，但做到这一点并不容易；此外，正如“一千个读者眼中有一千个哈姆雷特”，在持有不同投资理念的投资者眼中，看到的资本市场也是不一样的。在本文中，笔者将从一个长期价值投资实践者的角度分享自己对资本市场的两个重要特征的认知，以及由此带来对投资实操的启示。一、上市公司市值的横向非对称正态分布分析在风险管理专家塔勒布...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mn2i_bV60MTIoLG6g6QGZA?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6831b46fbddd05cb5c7b958d7788a59","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mn2i_bV60MTIoLG6g6QGZA?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124619355","content_text":"无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。了解资本市场的基本特征是投资成功的关键，但做到这一点并不容易；此外，正如“一千个读者眼中有一千个哈姆雷特”，在持有不同投资理念的投资者眼中，看到的资本市场也是不一样的。在本文中，笔者将从一个长期价值投资实践者的角度分享自己对资本市场的两个重要特征的认知，以及由此带来对投资实操的启示。一、上市公司市值的横向非对称正态分布分析在风险管理专家塔勒布《黑天鹅》一书中，塔勒布创造了“平均斯坦”及“极端斯坦”这两个概念，用以形容现实中所见的大多数事物的分布规律；（1）“平均斯坦”代表个体之间的差异不会太大，例如在生理领域，一个班级中，每个学生的身高跟班级的平均身高不会相差太多；（2）“极端斯坦”代表个体之间的差异可以很大，例如在经济领域，人的财富分布，世界首富和世界的平均财富多寡有天壤之别。在资本市场中，上市公司市值的分布同样属于“极端斯坦”，根据世界证券交易所联合会（World Federation of Exchanges，简称为WFE）对2023年二季度全球交易所市值的统计，全球股票市值约为109万亿美元，具体分布如下表：从微观上来看，交易所内公司市值的分布同样是非对称的（见表二），其中，美股近5900家上市公司（不含柜台交易）中，前十家公司的市值占整个交易所的22.64%；而在越南交易所的422家上市公司中，前十家公司的市值占比高达77.21%。由此可见，资本市场的第一个基本特征是：无论在宏观还是微观，上市公司的市值分布都是极端非对称的。数据来源：Wind，统计日期：2024年2月27日二、上市公司市值的纵向非线性变化在价值投资的原理中，公司的价格（市值）由公司的价值（盈利能力或自由现金流）决定，且价格围绕着价值波动。然而，价值的变动远非是线性的，由此，价格的波动也呈现出非线性且异常剧烈的特征。人类社会先后经历农业革命、工业革命以及信息技术革命（目前正处于人工智能革命的开端），公司价值变化的非线性特征愈加明显。对投资者而言，如果错过了公司价值/市值非线性变化的机会，那很可能就错过了投资该公司大部分的收益，我们通过两个例子来体现这个特征：（1）图一是英伟达市值比例变化的曲线，从曲线可以看到，在长达近25年的统计中，英伟达80%的市值都是在2023年至今（2024年6月18日）创造的，约占统计时长的5.88%。 图一：英伟达市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日（2）图二是特斯拉市值比例变化的曲线，横轴代表时间，纵轴是对应时间公司市值占历史最大市值的比例，从曲线可以看到，以2022年3月31日的市值高点为参照点，在其近12年的统计中，其市值的80%都是在1年半内创造的，约占总时长的12.5%。 图二：特斯拉市值比例变化；数据来源：Wind，截至2024年6月18日为此，资本市场的第二个基本特征是：公司市值的变化形式与商业模式有关，从传统企业到科技型企业，市值变化的非线性特征愈加明显。三、市值分布及变化特征的启示认知的目的是为了指导实践，上市公司市值分布及变化的特征蕴含着对我们投资活动至关重要的启示：1、无论是全球资本市场的市值分布还是单一市场的市值分布，都体现了投资世界横向非对称正态分布的特征，对于投资者来说，主动选择关键的国家、关键的行业以及关键的公司往往是收益的最大来源。2、中国有句俗话说：“三年不开张，开张吃三年”，粗略的看，开一次张要管够六年，这就体现了时机的重要性；我们通过回顾很多科技企业的市值变化，尤其体现了这个特征，这种非线性的市值变化给投资者带来了重要的启示。首先，它强调了长期投资和对公司基本面深入研究的重要性。仅仅关注短期的价格波动可能会错过那些具有长期增长潜力的公司。其次，它也提醒投资者需要对市场情绪和技术趋势有深刻的理解，以便在市值增长的早期阶段识别并投资于那些真正具有颠覆性潜力的公司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1,"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":282729549791240,"gmtCreate":1710054153812,"gmtModify":1710054155216,"author":{"id":"3576931560626059","authorId":"3576931560626059","name":"山顶资本创始人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38eb025f6994bb6a67a2c3e2c0d7c2ba","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576931560626059","idStr":"3576931560626059"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282729549791240","repostId":"281695021048128","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":281695021048128,"gmtCreate":1709801663399,"gmtModify":1709816768217,"author":{"id":"3519157433193136","authorId":"3519157433193136","name":"美港股观察社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfcc85fddcd77379cda6138d51be4c17","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519157433193136","idStr":"3519157433193136"},"themes":[],"title":"在人工智能竞赛中躺赢的玩家","htmlText":"有外国分析师坦言，阿斯麦可能是人工智能竞赛的最大赢家。因为阿斯麦的光刻机龙头地位，这让所有想要生产AI芯片的芯片制造商都无法绕不开他！ 作者：Simple Investment Ideas 阿斯麦是公认的光刻设备供应商龙头，用于生产微芯片和集成电路。阿斯麦的机器是半导体制造业的关键部件，使台积电和三星等半导体公司能够制造出强大的芯片。 在所有参与半导体行业的公司中，阿斯麦可能是从人工智能热潮中受益最多的公司。与其他半导体行业的顶级公司不同，阿斯麦在先进的EUV光刻技术方面几乎处于垄断地位。该公司甚至在相对不太先进的DUV光刻领域占据主导地位。这意味着在可预见的未来，阿斯麦很可能占据光刻领域的绝大部分增长。 不可逾越的壕沟 目前，阿斯麦可以说是拥有所有公司中最大的技术护城河。阿斯麦生产的先进光刻机在设计上非常复杂，甚至几乎不可能复制这种技术。毕竟，这些机器负责制造单纳米芯片，它们本身就是目前世界上最先进的技术之一。 阿斯麦光刻机通常每台耗资数亿美元，其最新的高NA光刻机耗资高达3.8亿美元。制造这种机器所涉及的复杂程度确实令人难以置信，因为一台机器可能涉及数十万个不同的部件。此外，其中许多组件本身就是技术奇迹。 制造这种机器所涉及的复杂性和技术难题，使阿斯麦多年来慢慢扩大了与竞争对手之间的差距。就目前的情况来看，似乎没有竞争对手愿意涉足这个领域，这使得阿斯麦在更复杂的机器上继续创新，从而进一步扩大了差距。 来源：阿斯麦 捕捉AI繁荣的所有增长空间 鉴于阿斯麦在先进光刻机领域近乎垄断的地位，该公司处于独特的地位，可以抓住人工智能热潮的几乎所有好处。虽然有一些公司生产光刻机，如佳能和尼康，但这些公司专注于较不先进和较老的DUV光刻技术。 随着人工智能继续推动对更小纳米芯片的需求，只有阿斯麦的先进机器才能满足这种需求。因此，该公司将不必担心竞争对手削减利润或抢走需求。阿斯麦在研发方","listText":"有外国分析师坦言，阿斯麦可能是人工智能竞赛的最大赢家。因为阿斯麦的光刻机龙头地位，这让所有想要生产AI芯片的芯片制造商都无法绕不开他！ 作者：Simple Investment Ideas 阿斯麦是公认的光刻设备供应商龙头，用于生产微芯片和集成电路。阿斯麦的机器是半导体制造业的关键部件，使台积电和三星等半导体公司能够制造出强大的芯片。 在所有参与半导体行业的公司中，阿斯麦可能是从人工智能热潮中受益最多的公司。与其他半导体行业的顶级公司不同，阿斯麦在先进的EUV光刻技术方面几乎处于垄断地位。该公司甚至在相对不太先进的DUV光刻领域占据主导地位。这意味着在可预见的未来，阿斯麦很可能占据光刻领域的绝大部分增长。 不可逾越的壕沟 目前，阿斯麦可以说是拥有所有公司中最大的技术护城河。阿斯麦生产的先进光刻机在设计上非常复杂，甚至几乎不可能复制这种技术。毕竟，这些机器负责制造单纳米芯片，它们本身就是目前世界上最先进的技术之一。 阿斯麦光刻机通常每台耗资数亿美元，其最新的高NA光刻机耗资高达3.8亿美元。制造这种机器所涉及的复杂程度确实令人难以置信，因为一台机器可能涉及数十万个不同的部件。此外，其中许多组件本身就是技术奇迹。 制造这种机器所涉及的复杂性和技术难题，使阿斯麦多年来慢慢扩大了与竞争对手之间的差距。就目前的情况来看，似乎没有竞争对手愿意涉足这个领域，这使得阿斯麦在更复杂的机器上继续创新，从而进一步扩大了差距。 来源：阿斯麦 捕捉AI繁荣的所有增长空间 鉴于阿斯麦在先进光刻机领域近乎垄断的地位，该公司处于独特的地位，可以抓住人工智能热潮的几乎所有好处。虽然有一些公司生产光刻机，如佳能和尼康，但这些公司专注于较不先进和较老的DUV光刻技术。 随着人工智能继续推动对更小纳米芯片的需求，只有阿斯麦的先进机器才能满足这种需求。因此，该公司将不必担心竞争对手削减利润或抢走需求。阿斯麦在研发方","text":"有外国分析师坦言，阿斯麦可能是人工智能竞赛的最大赢家。因为阿斯麦的光刻机龙头地位，这让所有想要生产AI芯片的芯片制造商都无法绕不开他！ 作者：Simple Investment Ideas 阿斯麦是公认的光刻设备供应商龙头，用于生产微芯片和集成电路。阿斯麦的机器是半导体制造业的关键部件，使台积电和三星等半导体公司能够制造出强大的芯片。 在所有参与半导体行业的公司中，阿斯麦可能是从人工智能热潮中受益最多的公司。与其他半导体行业的顶级公司不同，阿斯麦在先进的EUV光刻技术方面几乎处于垄断地位。该公司甚至在相对不太先进的DUV光刻领域占据主导地位。这意味着在可预见的未来，阿斯麦很可能占据光刻领域的绝大部分增长。 不可逾越的壕沟 目前，阿斯麦可以说是拥有所有公司中最大的技术护城河。阿斯麦生产的先进光刻机在设计上非常复杂，甚至几乎不可能复制这种技术。毕竟，这些机器负责制造单纳米芯片，它们本身就是目前世界上最先进的技术之一。 阿斯麦光刻机通常每台耗资数亿美元，其最新的高NA光刻机耗资高达3.8亿美元。制造这种机器所涉及的复杂程度确实令人难以置信，因为一台机器可能涉及数十万个不同的部件。此外，其中许多组件本身就是技术奇迹。 制造这种机器所涉及的复杂性和技术难题，使阿斯麦多年来慢慢扩大了与竞争对手之间的差距。就目前的情况来看，似乎没有竞争对手愿意涉足这个领域，这使得阿斯麦在更复杂的机器上继续创新，从而进一步扩大了差距。 来源：阿斯麦 捕捉AI繁荣的所有增长空间 鉴于阿斯麦在先进光刻机领域近乎垄断的地位，该公司处于独特的地位，可以抓住人工智能热潮的几乎所有好处。虽然有一些公司生产光刻机，如佳能和尼康，但这些公司专注于较不先进和较老的DUV光刻技术。 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