CandyChen的个人主页 - 老虎社区

CandyChen

CandyChen

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216关注

12粉丝

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0勋章

2021-09-10

$MU 20220916 67.5 CALL(MU)$[呆住]

2021-09-08

[微笑]

2021-09-07

[微笑]

2021-09-06

[流泪]

2021-09-06

$美光科技(MU)$[微笑]

2021-09-04

[微笑]

2021-09-04

$蔚来(NIO)$[汗颜]

2021-09-03

[微笑]

2021-09-02

[呆住]

2021-09-01

[呆住]

2021-08-31

[黑眼圈]

2021-08-30

$蔚来(NIO)$[喷血]

2021-08-30

[呆住]

2021-08-27

[呆住]

2021-08-26

[汗颜]

2021-08-26

$蔚来(NIO)$[汗颜]

2021-08-25

$蔚来(NIO)$[叹气]

2021-08-25

[叹气]

2021-08-24

$蔚来(NIO)$[喷血]

2021-08-24

[呆住]

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14:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"李佳琦、薇娅是否碰到了张大奕的天花板？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169970415","media":"懂懂笔记","summary":"近日有媒体报道称，“口红一哥”李佳琦背后的上海经纪公司美腕目前正在招聘首席财务官，据悉此举的目的正是为赴美上市做准备。与此同时，“淘宝带货一姐”薇娅背后的公司主体杭州谦寻文化，也被传正在计划IPO。\n","content":"<p>近日有媒体报道称，“口红一哥”李佳琦背后的上海经纪公司美腕目前正在招聘首席财务官，据悉此举的目的正是为赴美上市做准备。与此同时，“淘宝带货一姐”薇娅背后的公司主体杭州谦寻文化，也被传正在计划IPO。</p>\n<p>对此，美腕和谦寻文化均给予了否认。</p>\n<p>不过，无论两者是否在为谋求登陆资本市场做着策划，当直播带货这个风口呼呼吹了一年多并告别野蛮生长后，李佳琦和薇娅们也确实需要多一些新的思考或者说未雨绸缪了。</p>\n<p><b>一哥一姐没有护城河</b></p>\n<p>作为李佳琦和薇娅背后的MCN机构，美腕和谦寻文化在商业模式上和其他MCN机构并没有太多大差别。其核心的盈利模式，主要是靠头部网红的电商带货进行变现，然后通过电商平台、直播平台、商家和MCN机构等不同参与者的“权重”进行利益分配。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b46ca16c6dacfbeaf2c3f315bae2e13\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从本质上来看，无论是薇娅、李佳琦还是辛有志、罗永浩甚至那些中腰部网红，大家扮演的都只是整个产业链中销售渠道的角色，毕竟他们本身不生产任何商品。当然，薇娅、李佳琦或是辛有志这样的绝对头部网红在销售渠道之外，得益于自己庞大的用户基础还可以衍生出品牌营销的新价值。</p>\n<p>其中典型的例子就是花西子和完美日记，花西子乘上李佳琦这条大船两年时间，年销售额就从不足5000万暴增至超30亿，暴涨了将近70倍。此后完美日记更是成功地让自己摘得了“国货美妆第一股”的桂冠。</p>\n<p>这也是为什么品牌商每次找罗永浩合作带货时，在其直播前后都会做出各种各样的宣传海报大秀特秀，毕竟拥有1800万微博粉丝的罗永浩每转发一次海报都是海量曝光。</p>\n<p>如今，虽然IPO尚无定论，但未来如果要涉及资本市场的一系列动作，薇娅和李佳琦（及其MCN机构）都必须回答投资人的一个问题就是：“你的核心竞争力或者说护城河在哪里？”。但从现在来看，他们似乎很难回答这个问题。</p>\n<p>就像前面说的那样，直播带货的本质是一个销售行为。而过去直播带给外界最大的印象，除了镜头前善于表达的各类型主播之外，一个最重要的因素就是低价。“最低价”永远是主播们尤其是李佳琦、薇娅这样的头部大腕追求的卖点。当年李佳琦因为没拿到最低价拉黑百雀羚的事件，我们至今依然记忆犹新。</p>\n<p>可以说，头部主播可以凭借着自己巨大的流量带给品牌商压力，在谈判中让其给出巨大的优惠力度，但随着行业不断发展，一个新的尴尬现象就是，头部主播的价格优势正在一点儿一点儿被削减。</p>\n<p>站在平台运营战略的角度来看，前期通过大量资源投入到少数个体（网红主播）身上让其快速成长，起到示范作用，进而吸引其他参与者加入并形成一个自生长生态。而当这个生态成熟后，平台的战略就会从打造头部示范作用变成追求普惠效应，从而让更多的基层用户参与。</p>\n<p>现在来看，直播带货这个风口经过一年多的快速增长，众多头部网红的示范效应已经激励了无数参与者。加上平台方的各种激励，我们可以看到现在电商平台无论是品牌官方店还是个人C店，直播模式都是必不可少的一环。</p>\n<p>而当直播形式日常化之后，平台和品牌方的话语权自然就会逐渐增加，这也是必然。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5537501d48be08a2ebb9b62b45abceec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>毕竟，即便是李佳琦、薇娅这样的顶尖头部主播也是左右不了平台战略的，对于直播电商平台而言，头部主播是否可控是非常重要的因素。这方面，淘宝和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>做得相对成熟，快手则是一个典型的反面教程，直播带货一哥（辛巴）天天在直播间喷平台政策，这种场景属实有点儿不好看。</p>\n<p>另外，对于那些并不太担心销量的大品牌（知名企业）而言，即便是在面对李佳琦、薇娅这样顶尖头部主播时，也会牢牢地将议价权掌握在自己手中。关于这点一个最典型的例子就是，这些顶尖头部主播直播间里的大牌产品，相较于其他竞争对手已经没有明显的价格优势（你永远不可能在李佳琦直播间买到半价SK II）。</p>\n<p>所以，今年618期间就有不少用户发现，李佳琦、薇娅直播间里的大牌美妆产品几乎价格一致，连赠品也完全一致。为此，还有不少用户打趣道：看来主播之间内卷程度还是不够呀。</p>\n<p>诚然，主播个人的表达能力、颜值气质、个人魅力都是其自身的重要竞争力，但对于销售这件事本身而言，价格始终是绝大多数消费者关注的核心。而以李佳琦、薇娅为代表的顶尖头部主播，本身的“最低价”光环正在一点儿一点儿地消散。</p>\n<p><b>无法“量产”的头部网红</b></p>\n<p>作为现阶段国内Hi-end级别的两位带货主播，未来大概率会涉猎资本市场，而当面对投资人时他们必须回答的两个问题就是：他们背后的公司与普通的MCN机构有什么差别？踩在直播带货这个风口上的他们，持久的核心竞争力在哪里？</p>\n<p>从现在来看，他们似乎除了自己拥有一个Hi-end头部网红之外并没有其他实质性差别。但对于一个窥视资本市场的MCN机构而言，一个极头部网红显然是不够的。这一点，薇娅之前的“第一代淘宝网红”张大奕已经给我们做过一次实验。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4d8e76b4b9c1fc16cbd94c57087dc1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2016年双十一，张大奕首次通过淘宝直播带货，两个小时的直播时间拿下将近2000万元的销售额。可能这个数字放在今天网红们动辄单场上亿甚至十几亿的成绩来看算不上什么，但在2016年这绝对是个惊人的数字，毕竟当年3月份淘宝刚刚推出了直播功能。</p>\n<p>优秀成绩让淘宝当时专门为张大奕拍摄了一部名为《网红》的纪录片。那部纪录片的开头，张大奕对着镜头自信又骄傲地喊道:“2016绝对是张大奕的时代!”</p>\n<p>如果将彼时的张大奕比作现在的李佳琦或者薇娅可能并不为过。2年半之后，作为CMO，张大奕带着她背后的MCN机构如涵成功登陆纳斯达克。</p>\n<p>但张大奕和如涵没能回答上面那个问题。上市两年后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUHN\">如涵控股</a>在市值缩水七成的背景下宣布完成私有化，从美股退市。而此时，淘宝已经是薇娅和李佳琦的主场。至于张大奕，最近一次被广泛关注还是因为一则花边新闻。</p>\n<p>这种缺乏耐力的快上快下，在资本市场并不多见，但对于如涵似乎是一个必然——因为他们拥有且只拥有一个张大奕。</p>\n<p>如涵退市前三年的价格回报状况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/689a47a2eb88a7cb4812e95ce792d2ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>根据如涵上市之前的招股书显示，整改如涵的营收极度依赖张大奕个人。2017年、2018年和2019年前三季度张大奕贡献的收入分别占公司总营收的50.8%、52.4%、53.5%，这一连串数字能够体现出张大奕对如涵的重要性。但如此个人如此高的占比，对于一家上市公司而言是非常不健康的，这表示一旦他们失去张大奕或者张大奕的魔力不再，公司将很难继续维持这样的营收规模。</p>\n<p>所以，尽管如涵上市之初表示自己签约了一百多位网红，但外界对它最大的质疑就是能否打造第二个或是批量复制张大奕。</p>\n<p>诚然，大型MCN能够通过大量的资源投入批量制造一些中腰部网红，但那些极头部的网红显然是不具备可复制性的。这个问题，当初的如涵没能解决，现在美腕和谦寻同样很难复制一位新的李佳琦或者薇娅。以薇娅背后的谦寻为例，其现在也签下了50余位主播，其中不乏林依轮、海清这样的明星艺人，但目前依然没有一个人能够达到甚至接近薇娅的高度。</p>\n<p>同时网红还是一个非常“高危”的行业，聚光灯下的他们一言一行都必须非常小心谨慎，稍有不慎就会 “翻车”。而且，对于这些MCN机构的门面主播而言，他们与旗下主播很多时候是一荣俱荣一损俱损的关系。打个比方，假设今天薇娅也遭遇了“假燕窝事件”，谦寻旗下的其他主播难免不受到波及，这方面“快手一哥”辛巴就是最典型的例子。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/003eb141a9b92904762d9ec964da79ed\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在MCN机构无法批量复制头部网红，而单个网红又贡献了公司绝大部分营收的情况下，考虑到网红普遍不长的生命周期，资本市场很难相信其未来的成长空间，特别是在已经有了如涵这样一个案例的前提下。</p>\n<p>对此，相关电商行业专家对懂懂笔记表示，网红背后的MCN机构想要成功登陆资本市场，就必须证明自己拥有两个能力。</p>\n<p>一：规模化打造头部及腰部网红的能力，此前已经有了如涵的例子，如果不具备这样的能力就很容易被简单的视作“如涵第二”，一旦被打上这样的标签就代表天花板极低。</p>\n<p>二：强大且规模化的营销能力，这是现阶段绝大多数MCN机构所不具备的，目前MCN机构普遍的投入产出比都很低，如何在现有条件下尽可能的批量培育网红是非常棘手的问题。毕竟，头部网红无法批量培育，腰部网红还是可以的，但目前的问题就是成本太高。</p>\n<p><b>【结束语】</b></p>\n<p>仅从直播带货这一销售过程来看，站在行业顶峰风光无限的李佳琦和薇娅，已经摸到了天花板，当整个行业逐渐走过野蛮生长阶段，开始进入有序且规范化的发展期，他们的重点势必要走出卖货环节。他们能不能打造自己的品牌？能否衍生出更多的商业变现能力？</p>\n<p>李佳琦曾不止一次表示过自己对个人品牌的兴趣，此外，还包括为品牌方提供商品销售之外的服务等等。总之能不能给投资人画出一个更大“饼”，将成为他们能否资本上更进一步的重要因素。当然，这些都是后话，对于此刻传出IPO消息的李佳琦和薇娅而言，一切似乎太早了，毕竟虽然他们现在各自的GMV都远超当年的张大奕，但本质上他们和张大奕没有什么本质区别。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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}\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李佳琦、薇娅是否碰到了张大奕的天花板？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1066040419\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e15097abde5468c897d6a3b51f78f1b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">懂懂笔记 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-28 14:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>近日有媒体报道称，“口红一哥”李佳琦背后的上海经纪公司美腕目前正在招聘首席财务官，据悉此举的目的正是为赴美上市做准备。与此同时，“淘宝带货一姐”薇娅背后的公司主体杭州谦寻文化，也被传正在计划IPO。</p>\n<p>对此，美腕和谦寻文化均给予了否认。</p>\n<p>不过，无论两者是否在为谋求登陆资本市场做着策划，当直播带货这个风口呼呼吹了一年多并告别野蛮生长后，李佳琦和薇娅们也确实需要多一些新的思考或者说未雨绸缪了。</p>\n<p><b>一哥一姐没有护城河</b></p>\n<p>作为李佳琦和薇娅背后的MCN机构，美腕和谦寻文化在商业模式上和其他MCN机构并没有太多大差别。其核心的盈利模式，主要是靠头部网红的电商带货进行变现，然后通过电商平台、直播平台、商家和MCN机构等不同参与者的“权重”进行利益分配。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b46ca16c6dacfbeaf2c3f315bae2e13\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从本质上来看，无论是薇娅、李佳琦还是辛有志、罗永浩甚至那些中腰部网红，大家扮演的都只是整个产业链中销售渠道的角色，毕竟他们本身不生产任何商品。当然，薇娅、李佳琦或是辛有志这样的绝对头部网红在销售渠道之外，得益于自己庞大的用户基础还可以衍生出品牌营销的新价值。</p>\n<p>其中典型的例子就是花西子和完美日记，花西子乘上李佳琦这条大船两年时间，年销售额就从不足5000万暴增至超30亿，暴涨了将近70倍。此后完美日记更是成功地让自己摘得了“国货美妆第一股”的桂冠。</p>\n<p>这也是为什么品牌商每次找罗永浩合作带货时，在其直播前后都会做出各种各样的宣传海报大秀特秀，毕竟拥有1800万微博粉丝的罗永浩每转发一次海报都是海量曝光。</p>\n<p>如今，虽然IPO尚无定论，但未来如果要涉及资本市场的一系列动作，薇娅和李佳琦（及其MCN机构）都必须回答投资人的一个问题就是：“你的核心竞争力或者说护城河在哪里？”。但从现在来看，他们似乎很难回答这个问题。</p>\n<p>就像前面说的那样，直播带货的本质是一个销售行为。而过去直播带给外界最大的印象，除了镜头前善于表达的各类型主播之外，一个最重要的因素就是低价。“最低价”永远是主播们尤其是李佳琦、薇娅这样的头部大腕追求的卖点。当年李佳琦因为没拿到最低价拉黑百雀羚的事件，我们至今依然记忆犹新。</p>\n<p>可以说，头部主播可以凭借着自己巨大的流量带给品牌商压力，在谈判中让其给出巨大的优惠力度，但随着行业不断发展，一个新的尴尬现象就是，头部主播的价格优势正在一点儿一点儿被削减。</p>\n<p>站在平台运营战略的角度来看，前期通过大量资源投入到少数个体（网红主播）身上让其快速成长，起到示范作用，进而吸引其他参与者加入并形成一个自生长生态。而当这个生态成熟后，平台的战略就会从打造头部示范作用变成追求普惠效应，从而让更多的基层用户参与。</p>\n<p>现在来看，直播带货这个风口经过一年多的快速增长，众多头部网红的示范效应已经激励了无数参与者。加上平台方的各种激励，我们可以看到现在电商平台无论是品牌官方店还是个人C店，直播模式都是必不可少的一环。</p>\n<p>而当直播形式日常化之后，平台和品牌方的话语权自然就会逐渐增加，这也是必然。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5537501d48be08a2ebb9b62b45abceec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>毕竟，即便是李佳琦、薇娅这样的顶尖头部主播也是左右不了平台战略的，对于直播电商平台而言，头部主播是否可控是非常重要的因素。这方面，淘宝和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>做得相对成熟，快手则是一个典型的反面教程，直播带货一哥（辛巴）天天在直播间喷平台政策，这种场景属实有点儿不好看。</p>\n<p>另外，对于那些并不太担心销量的大品牌（知名企业）而言，即便是在面对李佳琦、薇娅这样顶尖头部主播时，也会牢牢地将议价权掌握在自己手中。关于这点一个最典型的例子就是，这些顶尖头部主播直播间里的大牌产品，相较于其他竞争对手已经没有明显的价格优势（你永远不可能在李佳琦直播间买到半价SK II）。</p>\n<p>所以，今年618期间就有不少用户发现，李佳琦、薇娅直播间里的大牌美妆产品几乎价格一致，连赠品也完全一致。为此，还有不少用户打趣道：看来主播之间内卷程度还是不够呀。</p>\n<p>诚然，主播个人的表达能力、颜值气质、个人魅力都是其自身的重要竞争力，但对于销售这件事本身而言，价格始终是绝大多数消费者关注的核心。而以李佳琦、薇娅为代表的顶尖头部主播，本身的“最低价”光环正在一点儿一点儿地消散。</p>\n<p><b>无法“量产”的头部网红</b></p>\n<p>作为现阶段国内Hi-end级别的两位带货主播，未来大概率会涉猎资本市场，而当面对投资人时他们必须回答的两个问题就是：他们背后的公司与普通的MCN机构有什么差别？踩在直播带货这个风口上的他们，持久的核心竞争力在哪里？</p>\n<p>从现在来看，他们似乎除了自己拥有一个Hi-end头部网红之外并没有其他实质性差别。但对于一个窥视资本市场的MCN机构而言，一个极头部网红显然是不够的。这一点，薇娅之前的“第一代淘宝网红”张大奕已经给我们做过一次实验。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4d8e76b4b9c1fc16cbd94c57087dc1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2016年双十一，张大奕首次通过淘宝直播带货，两个小时的直播时间拿下将近2000万元的销售额。可能这个数字放在今天网红们动辄单场上亿甚至十几亿的成绩来看算不上什么，但在2016年这绝对是个惊人的数字，毕竟当年3月份淘宝刚刚推出了直播功能。</p>\n<p>优秀成绩让淘宝当时专门为张大奕拍摄了一部名为《网红》的纪录片。那部纪录片的开头，张大奕对着镜头自信又骄傲地喊道:“2016绝对是张大奕的时代!”</p>\n<p>如果将彼时的张大奕比作现在的李佳琦或者薇娅可能并不为过。2年半之后，作为CMO，张大奕带着她背后的MCN机构如涵成功登陆纳斯达克。</p>\n<p>但张大奕和如涵没能回答上面那个问题。上市两年后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUHN\">如涵控股</a>在市值缩水七成的背景下宣布完成私有化，从美股退市。而此时，淘宝已经是薇娅和李佳琦的主场。至于张大奕，最近一次被广泛关注还是因为一则花边新闻。</p>\n<p>这种缺乏耐力的快上快下，在资本市场并不多见，但对于如涵似乎是一个必然——因为他们拥有且只拥有一个张大奕。</p>\n<p>如涵退市前三年的价格回报状况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/689a47a2eb88a7cb4812e95ce792d2ec\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>根据如涵上市之前的招股书显示，整改如涵的营收极度依赖张大奕个人。2017年、2018年和2019年前三季度张大奕贡献的收入分别占公司总营收的50.8%、52.4%、53.5%，这一连串数字能够体现出张大奕对如涵的重要性。但如此个人如此高的占比，对于一家上市公司而言是非常不健康的，这表示一旦他们失去张大奕或者张大奕的魔力不再，公司将很难继续维持这样的营收规模。</p>\n<p>所以，尽管如涵上市之初表示自己签约了一百多位网红，但外界对它最大的质疑就是能否打造第二个或是批量复制张大奕。</p>\n<p>诚然，大型MCN能够通过大量的资源投入批量制造一些中腰部网红，但那些极头部的网红显然是不具备可复制性的。这个问题，当初的如涵没能解决，现在美腕和谦寻同样很难复制一位新的李佳琦或者薇娅。以薇娅背后的谦寻为例，其现在也签下了50余位主播，其中不乏林依轮、海清这样的明星艺人，但目前依然没有一个人能够达到甚至接近薇娅的高度。</p>\n<p>同时网红还是一个非常“高危”的行业，聚光灯下的他们一言一行都必须非常小心谨慎，稍有不慎就会 “翻车”。而且，对于这些MCN机构的门面主播而言，他们与旗下主播很多时候是一荣俱荣一损俱损的关系。打个比方，假设今天薇娅也遭遇了“假燕窝事件”，谦寻旗下的其他主播难免不受到波及，这方面“快手一哥”辛巴就是最典型的例子。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/003eb141a9b92904762d9ec964da79ed\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在MCN机构无法批量复制头部网红，而单个网红又贡献了公司绝大部分营收的情况下，考虑到网红普遍不长的生命周期，资本市场很难相信其未来的成长空间，特别是在已经有了如涵这样一个案例的前提下。</p>\n<p>对此，相关电商行业专家对懂懂笔记表示，网红背后的MCN机构想要成功登陆资本市场，就必须证明自己拥有两个能力。</p>\n<p>一：规模化打造头部及腰部网红的能力，此前已经有了如涵的例子，如果不具备这样的能力就很容易被简单的视作“如涵第二”，一旦被打上这样的标签就代表天花板极低。</p>\n<p>二：强大且规模化的营销能力，这是现阶段绝大多数MCN机构所不具备的，目前MCN机构普遍的投入产出比都很低，如何在现有条件下尽可能的批量培育网红是非常棘手的问题。毕竟，头部网红无法批量培育，腰部网红还是可以的，但目前的问题就是成本太高。</p>\n<p><b>【结束语】</b></p>\n<p>仅从直播带货这一销售过程来看，站在行业顶峰风光无限的李佳琦和薇娅，已经摸到了天花板，当整个行业逐渐走过野蛮生长阶段，开始进入有序且规范化的发展期，他们的重点势必要走出卖货环节。他们能不能打造自己的品牌？能否衍生出更多的商业变现能力？</p>\n<p>李佳琦曾不止一次表示过自己对个人品牌的兴趣，此外，还包括为品牌方提供商品销售之外的服务等等。总之能不能给投资人画出一个更大“饼”，将成为他们能否资本上更进一步的重要因素。当然，这些都是后话，对于此刻传出IPO消息的李佳琦和薇娅而言，一切似乎太早了，毕竟虽然他们现在各自的GMV都远超当年的张大奕，但本质上他们和张大奕没有什么本质区别。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079350e90b4d0a1dc22ccb584df23a8d","relate_stocks":{"RUHN":"如涵控股"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169970415","content_text":"近日有媒体报道称，“口红一哥”李佳琦背后的上海经纪公司美腕目前正在招聘首席财务官，据悉此举的目的正是为赴美上市做准备。与此同时，“淘宝带货一姐”薇娅背后的公司主体杭州谦寻文化，也被传正在计划IPO。\n对此，美腕和谦寻文化均给予了否认。\n不过，无论两者是否在为谋求登陆资本市场做着策划，当直播带货这个风口呼呼吹了一年多并告别野蛮生长后，李佳琦和薇娅们也确实需要多一些新的思考或者说未雨绸缪了。\n一哥一姐没有护城河\n作为李佳琦和薇娅背后的MCN机构，美腕和谦寻文化在商业模式上和其他MCN机构并没有太多大差别。其核心的盈利模式，主要是靠头部网红的电商带货进行变现，然后通过电商平台、直播平台、商家和MCN机构等不同参与者的“权重”进行利益分配。\n\n从本质上来看，无论是薇娅、李佳琦还是辛有志、罗永浩甚至那些中腰部网红，大家扮演的都只是整个产业链中销售渠道的角色，毕竟他们本身不生产任何商品。当然，薇娅、李佳琦或是辛有志这样的绝对头部网红在销售渠道之外，得益于自己庞大的用户基础还可以衍生出品牌营销的新价值。\n其中典型的例子就是花西子和完美日记，花西子乘上李佳琦这条大船两年时间，年销售额就从不足5000万暴增至超30亿，暴涨了将近70倍。此后完美日记更是成功地让自己摘得了“国货美妆第一股”的桂冠。\n这也是为什么品牌商每次找罗永浩合作带货时，在其直播前后都会做出各种各样的宣传海报大秀特秀，毕竟拥有1800万微博粉丝的罗永浩每转发一次海报都是海量曝光。\n如今，虽然IPO尚无定论，但未来如果要涉及资本市场的一系列动作，薇娅和李佳琦（及其MCN机构）都必须回答投资人的一个问题就是：“你的核心竞争力或者说护城河在哪里？”。但从现在来看，他们似乎很难回答这个问题。\n就像前面说的那样，直播带货的本质是一个销售行为。而过去直播带给外界最大的印象，除了镜头前善于表达的各类型主播之外，一个最重要的因素就是低价。“最低价”永远是主播们尤其是李佳琦、薇娅这样的头部大腕追求的卖点。当年李佳琦因为没拿到最低价拉黑百雀羚的事件，我们至今依然记忆犹新。\n可以说，头部主播可以凭借着自己巨大的流量带给品牌商压力，在谈判中让其给出巨大的优惠力度，但随着行业不断发展，一个新的尴尬现象就是，头部主播的价格优势正在一点儿一点儿被削减。\n站在平台运营战略的角度来看，前期通过大量资源投入到少数个体（网红主播）身上让其快速成长，起到示范作用，进而吸引其他参与者加入并形成一个自生长生态。而当这个生态成熟后，平台的战略就会从打造头部示范作用变成追求普惠效应，从而让更多的基层用户参与。\n现在来看，直播带货这个风口经过一年多的快速增长，众多头部网红的示范效应已经激励了无数参与者。加上平台方的各种激励，我们可以看到现在电商平台无论是品牌官方店还是个人C店，直播模式都是必不可少的一环。\n而当直播形式日常化之后，平台和品牌方的话语权自然就会逐渐增加，这也是必然。\n\n毕竟，即便是李佳琦、薇娅这样的顶尖头部主播也是左右不了平台战略的，对于直播电商平台而言，头部主播是否可控是非常重要的因素。这方面，淘宝和抖音做得相对成熟，快手则是一个典型的反面教程，直播带货一哥（辛巴）天天在直播间喷平台政策，这种场景属实有点儿不好看。\n另外，对于那些并不太担心销量的大品牌（知名企业）而言，即便是在面对李佳琦、薇娅这样顶尖头部主播时，也会牢牢地将议价权掌握在自己手中。关于这点一个最典型的例子就是，这些顶尖头部主播直播间里的大牌产品，相较于其他竞争对手已经没有明显的价格优势（你永远不可能在李佳琦直播间买到半价SK II）。\n所以，今年618期间就有不少用户发现，李佳琦、薇娅直播间里的大牌美妆产品几乎价格一致，连赠品也完全一致。为此，还有不少用户打趣道：看来主播之间内卷程度还是不够呀。\n诚然，主播个人的表达能力、颜值气质、个人魅力都是其自身的重要竞争力，但对于销售这件事本身而言，价格始终是绝大多数消费者关注的核心。而以李佳琦、薇娅为代表的顶尖头部主播，本身的“最低价”光环正在一点儿一点儿地消散。\n无法“量产”的头部网红\n作为现阶段国内Hi-end级别的两位带货主播，未来大概率会涉猎资本市场，而当面对投资人时他们必须回答的两个问题就是：他们背后的公司与普通的MCN机构有什么差别？踩在直播带货这个风口上的他们，持久的核心竞争力在哪里？\n从现在来看，他们似乎除了自己拥有一个Hi-end头部网红之外并没有其他实质性差别。但对于一个窥视资本市场的MCN机构而言，一个极头部网红显然是不够的。这一点，薇娅之前的“第一代淘宝网红”张大奕已经给我们做过一次实验。\n\n2016年双十一，张大奕首次通过淘宝直播带货，两个小时的直播时间拿下将近2000万元的销售额。可能这个数字放在今天网红们动辄单场上亿甚至十几亿的成绩来看算不上什么，但在2016年这绝对是个惊人的数字，毕竟当年3月份淘宝刚刚推出了直播功能。\n优秀成绩让淘宝当时专门为张大奕拍摄了一部名为《网红》的纪录片。那部纪录片的开头，张大奕对着镜头自信又骄傲地喊道:“2016绝对是张大奕的时代!”\n如果将彼时的张大奕比作现在的李佳琦或者薇娅可能并不为过。2年半之后，作为CMO，张大奕带着她背后的MCN机构如涵成功登陆纳斯达克。\n但张大奕和如涵没能回答上面那个问题。上市两年后，如涵控股在市值缩水七成的背景下宣布完成私有化，从美股退市。而此时，淘宝已经是薇娅和李佳琦的主场。至于张大奕，最近一次被广泛关注还是因为一则花边新闻。\n这种缺乏耐力的快上快下，在资本市场并不多见，但对于如涵似乎是一个必然——因为他们拥有且只拥有一个张大奕。\n如涵退市前三年的价格回报状况\n\n根据如涵上市之前的招股书显示，整改如涵的营收极度依赖张大奕个人。2017年、2018年和2019年前三季度张大奕贡献的收入分别占公司总营收的50.8%、52.4%、53.5%，这一连串数字能够体现出张大奕对如涵的重要性。但如此个人如此高的占比，对于一家上市公司而言是非常不健康的，这表示一旦他们失去张大奕或者张大奕的魔力不再，公司将很难继续维持这样的营收规模。\n所以，尽管如涵上市之初表示自己签约了一百多位网红，但外界对它最大的质疑就是能否打造第二个或是批量复制张大奕。\n诚然，大型MCN能够通过大量的资源投入批量制造一些中腰部网红，但那些极头部的网红显然是不具备可复制性的。这个问题，当初的如涵没能解决，现在美腕和谦寻同样很难复制一位新的李佳琦或者薇娅。以薇娅背后的谦寻为例，其现在也签下了50余位主播，其中不乏林依轮、海清这样的明星艺人，但目前依然没有一个人能够达到甚至接近薇娅的高度。\n同时网红还是一个非常“高危”的行业，聚光灯下的他们一言一行都必须非常小心谨慎，稍有不慎就会 “翻车”。而且，对于这些MCN机构的门面主播而言，他们与旗下主播很多时候是一荣俱荣一损俱损的关系。打个比方，假设今天薇娅也遭遇了“假燕窝事件”，谦寻旗下的其他主播难免不受到波及，这方面“快手一哥”辛巴就是最典型的例子。\n\n在MCN机构无法批量复制头部网红，而单个网红又贡献了公司绝大部分营收的情况下，考虑到网红普遍不长的生命周期，资本市场很难相信其未来的成长空间，特别是在已经有了如涵这样一个案例的前提下。\n对此，相关电商行业专家对懂懂笔记表示，网红背后的MCN机构想要成功登陆资本市场，就必须证明自己拥有两个能力。\n一：规模化打造头部及腰部网红的能力，此前已经有了如涵的例子，如果不具备这样的能力就很容易被简单的视作“如涵第二”，一旦被打上这样的标签就代表天花板极低。\n二：强大且规模化的营销能力，这是现阶段绝大多数MCN机构所不具备的，目前MCN机构普遍的投入产出比都很低，如何在现有条件下尽可能的批量培育网红是非常棘手的问题。毕竟，头部网红无法批量培育，腰部网红还是可以的，但目前的问题就是成本太高。\n【结束语】\n仅从直播带货这一销售过程来看，站在行业顶峰风光无限的李佳琦和薇娅，已经摸到了天花板，当整个行业逐渐走过野蛮生长阶段，开始进入有序且规范化的发展期，他们的重点势必要走出卖货环节。他们能不能打造自己的品牌？能否衍生出更多的商业变现能力？\n李佳琦曾不止一次表示过自己对个人品牌的兴趣，此外，还包括为品牌方提供商品销售之外的服务等等。总之能不能给投资人画出一个更大“饼”，将成为他们能否资本上更进一步的重要因素。当然，这些都是后话，对于此刻传出IPO消息的李佳琦和薇娅而言，一切似乎太早了，毕竟虽然他们现在各自的GMV都远超当年的张大奕，但本质上他们和张大奕没有什么本质区别。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168925188,"gmtCreate":1623947463544,"gmtModify":1631886530024,"author":{"id":"3577419615418802","authorId":"3577419615418802","name":"CandyChen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e12d6d6c8ca165a8237938903255979","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577419615418802","authorIdStr":"3577419615418802"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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