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2021-06-19

Hahah dumb short sellers

AMC short sellers lost $488 mln after Monday's rally - Ortex<blockquote>AMC卖空者在周一上涨后损失了4.88亿美元-Ortex</blockquote>

2021-06-19

The only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-19

TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀

Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>

2021-06-19

These hediges just tryna get us to sell, no WAY IN HELL, im holding 🚀🚀🚀🚀

AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>

2021-06-19

NEVer SELLING

AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>

2021-06-19

Oh pls stop Manipulating us

AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>

2021-06-19

To the moon 🚀🚀🚀

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-19

Fake news … manipulating us

3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>

2021-06-19

Only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀🚀

2021-06-15

Missing amc, article not comprehensive

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-15

To the moon

AMC Shorts Get Smoked Again And Options Traders Hammer Calls<blockquote>AMC空头再次被吸走，期权交易员重创评级</blockquote>

2021-06-15

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$After ytds gains

2021-06-15

Go go go!

2021-06-14

AMC TO THE MOON

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-13

AMC BB CLOV CLNE WISH TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>

2021-06-13

TO THE MOON

2021-06-13

What??

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-12

Hahahaha stupid hedges…we apes are winning

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-12

Apple shares gna rocket

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-12

Too volatile now

抱歉，原内容已删除

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dumb short sellers","listText":"Hahah dumb short sellers","text":"Hahah dumb short sellers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162487407","repostId":"2143680756","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2143680756","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623754913,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143680756?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 19:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC short sellers lost $488 mln after Monday's rally - Ortex<blockquote>AMC卖空者在周一上涨后损失了4.88亿美元-Ortex</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143680756","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 15 (Reuters) - Investors shorting \"meme stock\" AMC Entertainment    are estimated to have lost ","content":"<p><html><body>June 15 (Reuters) - Investors shorting \"meme stock\" AMC Entertainment    are estimated to have lost about $488 million on Monday after a rally that sent the cinema operator's shares up more than 15%, data from financial analytics firm Ortex showed.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透6月15日-金融分析公司Ortex的数据显示，周一做空“模因股票”AMC院线的投资者估计损失了约4.88亿美元，此前该影院运营商的股价上涨了15%以上。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   By contrast, AMC short-sellers suffered $1.2 billion in mark-to-market losses for the week to May 28, when small-time traders on online discussion groups sent the stock up about 116%, triggering a phenomenon known as a \"short squeeze\".</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，截至5月28日当周，AMC卖空者按市值计算遭受了12亿美元的损失，当时在线讨论组上的小型交易员将该股推高了约116%，引发了一种被称为“轧空”的现象。</blockquote></p><p>   AMC shares were down 0.1% in premarket trading on Tuesday. The stock has surged more than 2,500% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价周二盘前交易中下跌0.1%。今年迄今为止，该股已飙升超过2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> (Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bengaluru and Sujata Rao in London; Editing by Anil D'Silva)</p><p><blockquote>（Sagarika Jaisinghani在班加罗尔和Sujata Rao在伦敦报道；Anil D'Silva编辑）</blockquote></p><p>((sagarika.jaisinghani@thomsonreuters.com;))</p><p><blockquote>（（sagarika.jaisinghani@thomsonreuters.com；））</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC short sellers lost $488 mln after Monday's rally - Ortex<blockquote>AMC卖空者在周一上涨后损失了4.88亿美元-Ortex</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC short sellers lost $488 mln after Monday's rally - Ortex<blockquote>AMC卖空者在周一上涨后损失了4.88亿美元-Ortex</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-15 19:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>June 15 (Reuters) - Investors shorting \"meme stock\" AMC Entertainment    are estimated to have lost about $488 million on Monday after a rally that sent the cinema operator's shares up more than 15%, data from financial analytics firm Ortex showed.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透6月15日-金融分析公司Ortex的数据显示，周一做空“模因股票”AMC院线的投资者估计损失了约4.88亿美元，此前该影院运营商的股价上涨了15%以上。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   By contrast, AMC short-sellers suffered $1.2 billion in mark-to-market losses for the week to May 28, when small-time traders on online discussion groups sent the stock up about 116%, triggering a phenomenon known as a \"short squeeze\".</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，截至5月28日当周，AMC卖空者按市值计算遭受了12亿美元的损失，当时在线讨论组上的小型交易员将该股推高了约116%，引发了一种被称为“轧空”的现象。</blockquote></p><p>   AMC shares were down 0.1% in premarket trading on Tuesday. The stock has surged more than 2,500% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价周二盘前交易中下跌0.1%。今年迄今为止，该股已飙升超过2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> (Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bengaluru and Sujata Rao in London; Editing by Anil D'Silva)</p><p><blockquote>（Sagarika Jaisinghani在班加罗尔和Sujata Rao在伦敦报道；Anil D'Silva编辑）</blockquote></p><p>((sagarika.jaisinghani@thomsonreuters.com;))</p><p><blockquote>（（sagarika.jaisinghani@thomsonreuters.com；））</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143680756","content_text":"June 15 (Reuters) - Investors shorting \"meme stock\" AMC Entertainment    are estimated to have lost about $488 million on Monday after a rally that sent the cinema operator's shares up more than 15%, data from financial analytics firm Ortex showed.   By contrast, AMC short-sellers suffered $1.2 billion in mark-to-market losses for the week to May 28, when small-time traders on online discussion groups sent the stock up about 116%, triggering a phenomenon known as a \"short squeeze\".   AMC shares were down 0.1% in premarket trading on Tuesday. The stock has surged more than 2,500% so far this year. (Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bengaluru and Sujata Rao in London; Editing by Anil D'Silva)((sagarika.jaisinghani@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162486528,"gmtCreate":1624071467564,"gmtModify":1631890127282,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀","listText":"The only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀","text":"The only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162486528","repostId":"1189515948","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162486076,"gmtCreate":1624071438895,"gmtModify":1631890127283,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀","listText":"TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀","text":"TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162486076","repostId":"1148768572","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148768572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623822306,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148768572?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148768572","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce tradi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>  <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>  <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>  <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wish(ContextLogic)仍然是电子商务交易中最被低估的资产之一，其远期EV与销售额之比仅为1.3倍。</li><li>Wish与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将进一步加速国际扩张和增长计划。</li><li>虽然很难找到有关其空头利息的准确数据，因为其大部分流通量仍被锁定，但我估计空头利息在30-40%之间。</li><li>我相信，包括高额营销支出和用户数量停滞在内的看跌论点已经在当前股价中根深蒂固。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JuSun/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic(WISH)对股东来说是一段疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于12月以每股20美元的价格上市，随后由于势头驱动的反弹，在2月份飙升至32美元的历史高点。尽管如此，自那以后，股价稳步暴跌，在6月份触及仅7美元的历史低点，但在零售交易部门的兴趣增加后，现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、空头兴趣和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我认为高空头兴趣越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到20美元或更多，因为该公司正在应对物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，该电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字美元树</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p><p><blockquote>Wish作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者迄今为止远离了该股。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish通过低价（低质量）产品和缓慢的交付时间（可能导致长达一周的交付时间）扭转了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish本身不处理运输，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低价格，提供2美元加2美元运费的连帽衫。</blockquote></p><p> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的认知度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我将Wish视为数字美元树，在线购物者在这里发现他们想要而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品更有耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付，物流收入同比增长275%就证明了这一点。由于这些收入的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至70%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p><p><blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，在其他国家也可以看到类似的趋势。此外，它正在增长Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业与平台连接起来的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或专门）在美国销售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：传感器塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p><p><blockquote>我还喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统可以优化平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创造互动移动购物体验的策略似乎运作良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，展示了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中站稳脚跟，为其提供了巨大的增长空间。目前，大约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其TAM可能有限，因为它专注于低收入利基市场，这也是它最初受欢迎的原因。尽管如此，这仍为Wish提供了超过3万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为该业务的年销售额将增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>负面情绪根深蒂固</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>Wish的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司消耗了超过3亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，月活跃用户数稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于该公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再重视广告和客户获取。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</td>    <td>2020</td>    <td>2019</td>    <td>2018</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue</td>    <td>$2.54B</td>    <td>$1.9B</td>    <td>$1.73B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</td>    <td>$1.59B</td>    <td>$1.46B</td>    <td>$1.45B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>    <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>MAUs</td>    <td>107M (+19%)</td>    <td>90M (+10%)</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$2.54 B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>$1.73 B</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>$1.59 B</td><td>$1.46 B</td><td>$1.45 B</td></tr><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td><td><b>$17.1亿(+17%)</b></td><td><b>$1.46 B(-7%)</b></td><td><b>$1.57 B</b></td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿(+19%)</td><td>9000万(+10%)</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>82M</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>    <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>    <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>    <td><b>64M</b></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)</p><p><blockquote><td>82M</td><tr><td><b>活跃买家</b></td><td><b>6400万(+3%)</b></td><td><b>6200万(-3%)</b></td><td><b>64M</b></td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote></p><p> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p><p><blockquote>Wish最大的看跌理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的60%和毛利润的100%以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销增加活跃买家，不幸的是事实并非如此。这是一个危险信号，并质疑Wish商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司一直接近正现金流，并表示如果不是因为其大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的月活跃用户并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上年的67%降至60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Wish IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p><p><blockquote>就前景而言，这就是该公司本质上强调的。它相信营销费用可以降低到40-45%，从而使EBITDA利润率达到25%的中点范围。如果它实现了这些雄心勃勃的目标（这很有可能），其利润率将与eBay或MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）相似。不管怎样，Wish的商业模式并不完美，但在我看来（在我看来），所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p><p><blockquote>即使在最近上涨了50%以上之后，股价仍然远远落后于Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、Amazon和（Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP））等同行。Wish的预计收入超过30亿美元，其市销率仅为1.8倍，仅为eBay当前估值的一半，远低于Poshmark。目前的估计是，到2025年，收入将超过60亿美元，自由现金流将达到10亿美元，这意味着Wish的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的7倍，即销售额的1倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，估值存在扩张潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诉讼呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p><p><blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌并且投资者可能不关心时，此类诉讼并不罕见。这些诉讼还包括CloverHealth（纳斯达克：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Short Interest - Still High</p><p><blockquote>空头利息——仍然很高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Fintel</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p><p><blockquote>Wish已经获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大的轧空。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的做空比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其流通股的百分比约为48%。Fintel等其他消息来源将当前的空头量确定为20-30%。现在，很难给出一个确切的估计，但总体来说，很可能在这个范围内的某个地方，许多空头评级仍有待回补。从长远来看，高空头兴趣可能是一个优势，如果股票开始呈上升趋势，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p><p><blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上拥有超过1亿的月用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，比乍一看更智能。此外，其与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将为超过300,000家商家提供免费的直接集成，将他们直接连接到Wish的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。尽管Wish不完善的商业模式存在盈利能力滞后等风险，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 13:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>  <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>  <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>  <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wish(ContextLogic)仍然是电子商务交易中最被低估的资产之一，其远期EV与销售额之比仅为1.3倍。</li><li>Wish与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将进一步加速国际扩张和增长计划。</li><li>虽然很难找到有关其空头利息的准确数据，因为其大部分流通量仍被锁定，但我估计空头利息在30-40%之间。</li><li>我相信，包括高额营销支出和用户数量停滞在内的看跌论点已经在当前股价中根深蒂固。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JuSun/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic(WISH)对股东来说是一段疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于12月以每股20美元的价格上市，随后由于势头驱动的反弹，在2月份飙升至32美元的历史高点。尽管如此，自那以后，股价稳步暴跌，在6月份触及仅7美元的历史低点，但在零售交易部门的兴趣增加后，现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、空头兴趣和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我认为高空头兴趣越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到20美元或更多，因为该公司正在应对物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，该电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字美元树</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p><p><blockquote>Wish作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者迄今为止远离了该股。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish通过低价（低质量）产品和缓慢的交付时间（可能导致长达一周的交付时间）扭转了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish本身不处理运输，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低价格，提供2美元加2美元运费的连帽衫。</blockquote></p><p> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的认知度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我将Wish视为数字美元树，在线购物者在这里发现他们想要而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品更有耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付，物流收入同比增长275%就证明了这一点。由于这些收入的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至70%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p><p><blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，在其他国家也可以看到类似的趋势。此外，它正在增长Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业与平台连接起来的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或专门）在美国销售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：传感器塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p><p><blockquote>我还喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统可以优化平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创造互动移动购物体验的策略似乎运作良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，展示了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中站稳脚跟，为其提供了巨大的增长空间。目前，大约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其TAM可能有限，因为它专注于低收入利基市场，这也是它最初受欢迎的原因。尽管如此，这仍为Wish提供了超过3万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为该业务的年销售额将增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>负面情绪根深蒂固</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>Wish的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司消耗了超过3亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，月活跃用户数稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于该公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再重视广告和客户获取。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</td>    <td>2020</td>    <td>2019</td>    <td>2018</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue</td>    <td>$2.54B</td>    <td>$1.9B</td>    <td>$1.73B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</td>    <td>$1.59B</td>    <td>$1.46B</td>    <td>$1.45B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>    <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>MAUs</td>    <td>107M (+19%)</td>    <td>90M (+10%)</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$2.54 B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>$1.73 B</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>$1.59 B</td><td>$1.46 B</td><td>$1.45 B</td></tr><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td><td><b>$17.1亿(+17%)</b></td><td><b>$1.46 B(-7%)</b></td><td><b>$1.57 B</b></td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿(+19%)</td><td>9000万(+10%)</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>82M</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>    <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>    <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>    <td><b>64M</b></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)</p><p><blockquote><td>82M</td><tr><td><b>活跃买家</b></td><td><b>6400万(+3%)</b></td><td><b>6200万(-3%)</b></td><td><b>64M</b></td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote></p><p> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p><p><blockquote>Wish最大的看跌理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的60%和毛利润的100%以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销增加活跃买家，不幸的是事实并非如此。这是一个危险信号，并质疑Wish商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司一直接近正现金流，并表示如果不是因为其大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的月活跃用户并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上年的67%降至60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Wish IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p><p><blockquote>就前景而言，这就是该公司本质上强调的。它相信营销费用可以降低到40-45%，从而使EBITDA利润率达到25%的中点范围。如果它实现了这些雄心勃勃的目标（这很有可能），其利润率将与eBay或MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）相似。不管怎样，Wish的商业模式并不完美，但在我看来（在我看来），所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p><p><blockquote>即使在最近上涨了50%以上之后，股价仍然远远落后于Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、Amazon和（Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP））等同行。Wish的预计收入超过30亿美元，其市销率仅为1.8倍，仅为eBay当前估值的一半，远低于Poshmark。目前的估计是，到2025年，收入将超过60亿美元，自由现金流将达到10亿美元，这意味着Wish的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的7倍，即销售额的1倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，估值存在扩张潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诉讼呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p><p><blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌并且投资者可能不关心时，此类诉讼并不罕见。这些诉讼还包括CloverHealth（纳斯达克：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Short Interest - Still High</p><p><blockquote>空头利息——仍然很高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Fintel</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p><p><blockquote>Wish已经获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大的轧空。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的做空比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其流通股的百分比约为48%。Fintel等其他消息来源将当前的空头量确定为20-30%。现在，很难给出一个确切的估计，但总体来说，很可能在这个范围内的某个地方，许多空头评级仍有待回补。从长远来看，高空头兴趣可能是一个优势，如果股票开始呈上升趋势，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p><p><blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上拥有超过1亿的月用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，比乍一看更智能。此外，其与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将为超过300,000家商家提供免费的直接集成，将他们直接连接到Wish的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。尽管Wish不完善的商业模式存在盈利能力滞后等风险，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148768572","content_text":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.\nWhile accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.\nI believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.\n\nJuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nOverview\nContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.\nIn this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.\nThe Digital Dollar Tree\nWish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.\nFrankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.\n\nNow, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.\nIt is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.\nSource: Sensor Tower\nI also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.\nWish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.\nNegative Sentiment Baked In\nWish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.\n\n\n\nYear\n2020\n2019\n2018\n\n\nRevenue\n$2.54B\n$1.9B\n$1.73B\n\n\nGross Profit\n$1.59B\n$1.46B\n$1.45B\n\n\nSales and Marketing\n$1.71B (+17%)\n$1.46B (-7%)\n$1.57B\n\n\nMAUs\n107M (+19%)\n90M (+10%)\n82M\n\n\nActive Buyers\n64M (+3%)\n62M (-3%)\n64M\n\n\n\n*Growth (Year-over-Year)\nThe largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.\nSource: Wish IR\nIn terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).\nData byYCharts\nEven after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.\nWhat about the Lawsuits?\nPerhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.\nShort Interest - Still High\nSource: Fintel\nWish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.\nThe Bottom Line\nI believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WISH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162481145,"gmtCreate":1624071385787,"gmtModify":1631890127284,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"These hediges just tryna get us to sell, no WAY IN HELL,&nbsp;im&nbsp;holding 🚀🚀🚀🚀","listText":"These hediges just tryna get us to sell, no WAY IN HELL,&nbsp;im&nbsp;holding 🚀🚀🚀🚀","text":"These hediges just tryna get us to sell, no WAY IN HELL, im holding 🚀🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162481145","repostId":"1157739738","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157739738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623891796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157739738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 09:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157739738","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.When I look at AMC’s cha","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li>  <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li>  <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\"><span>BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领头羊后，AMC的举动与游戏驿站一月份的举动类似，表明可能会出现大幅下跌。</li><li>技术面、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于1月下旬GME的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BCFC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性的上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及AMC采取的行动，股价在上个月上涨了约485%。今年，AMC上涨了约763.5%，至每股约55美元，市值为$28.4 B，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景来说是根本性的破坏性。在今年早些时候游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME和其他“reddit”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压中上涨后，AMC再次获得了动力，并以其表现从该集团中脱颖而出。这篇文章将比较GME在2月份惨败中的领导地位与AMC目前的领导地位，并将评估推动这些举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于这种股票价格走势的性质，不断重新考虑你的投资论点并重新评估是什么推动了价格走势是很重要的。在我看来，在这些情况下，技术分析占据了主导地位，我将指出许多因素表明现在可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: CNBC(GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.</p><p><blockquote>想想今年早些时候GME的上涨，当时它在一群动量或“模因”股票中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7日移动平均线，蓝色表示50日移动平均线，绿色表示200日移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破7日移动平均线之后总是会出现两个方向的大幅波动。在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7日移动平均线似乎是价格走势最有用的指标。正如您在图表中看到的，在2月、3月和6月，当GME价格突破7日移动平均线时，随之而来的是大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了一定程度的一致支撑，为走势中的几次反弹提供了一定程度的支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: CNBC [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.</p><p><blockquote>当我看AMC的图表时，它让我想起了2021年2月的GME。上涨迅速而明显（约23天内上涨约350%），类似于GME 2月份的上涨（约21天内上涨约1,525%）。两者都导致短期内7日移动平均线和50日移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从GME的图表中可以看出，在前一周触及约350美元后，它最终测试了约45-50美元附近的50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.<i>This scenario offers ~60% downside.</i>Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.</p><p><blockquote>与GME类似，AMC在此次上涨后也在7日均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果AMC无法突破62.55美元并呈现新的动能，则有双重见顶的风险，向下突破7日均线，并重新测试20美元附近的50日均线。<i>这种情况会带来约60%的负面影响。</i>尽管我通常不会通过观察时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两种走势在时间段方面的相似性，并对GME走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索兴趣：动量故事</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上基于势头，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME的搜索兴趣在1月底2月初迅速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的利息峰值几乎与价格峰值完全一致，利息下降与价格下降完全一致。同样，在测试45美元左右的50日移动平均线后，其利息反弹跟随价格反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>当您查看AMC的谷歌搜索兴趣时，您还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后随后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是GME 2月份下跌的领先指标，因此该图表可能表明如果无法反弹，可能会出现潜在的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cross-Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交叉分析</b></blockquote></p><p> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.</p><p><blockquote>当你将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互绘制图表时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在测量大量数字（如交易量与兴趣）时存在缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表显示变量具有相关性，尤其是在剧烈波动的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在波动相对较小的时候偏离，但当事情以波动的方式发展时，他们会保持一种关系。在股价上涨后，搜索兴趣和交易量似乎直接引领或下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。考虑一下GME的搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格下跌的，以及AMC的搜索兴趣最近是如何以类似的方式突破其价格的。</blockquote></p><p> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场中的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此对分析最有用。</blockquote></p><p> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.</p><p><blockquote>许多人为推动这一举措提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙述、伽马或轧空，或者股票发行带来的新资本涌入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的价格大幅上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均值并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.</p><p><blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利了结超过50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，在预期大幅下跌的情况下建仓似乎是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.</p><p><blockquote>AMC看跌论点的风险包括新的动能和7日移动平均线上方的持续强势。正如我之前所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果AMC保持在该平均线之上并缩小7日与20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在触及新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在这么短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动量和技术因素就会接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的下行空间。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。然而，AMC看起来与GME 2月份的走势类似，看跌双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion</p><p><blockquote>结论</blockquote></p><p></p><p> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.</p><p><blockquote>在1月份写了一篇关于AMC的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股，认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与GME 2月份上涨和回落的技术相似性。在这样的事件中，催化剂会变得不稳定，评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当股价大幅上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结的时间，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动力作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是鲜明且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更加温和。虽然推动AMC崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更重要，那就是动量故事。根据我们对GME的研究，考虑到20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，7日移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。随着谷歌搜索趋势、交易量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明情况正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。人们应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于站在另一边，现在就考虑相应地建仓。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）发起小仓位或对冲。如果价格走势向下，走势将会剧烈，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里可能是有意义的，而且借贷成本似乎没有那么高，因为做空股票的百分比不是GME的水平，但那里固有的风险更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 09:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li>  <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li>  <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\"><span>BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领头羊后，AMC的举动与游戏驿站一月份的举动类似，表明可能会出现大幅下跌。</li><li>技术面、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于1月下旬GME的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BCFC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性的上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及AMC采取的行动，股价在上个月上涨了约485%。今年，AMC上涨了约763.5%，至每股约55美元，市值为$28.4 B，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景来说是根本性的破坏性。在今年早些时候游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME和其他“reddit”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压中上涨后，AMC再次获得了动力，并以其表现从该集团中脱颖而出。这篇文章将比较GME在2月份惨败中的领导地位与AMC目前的领导地位，并将评估推动这些举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于这种股票价格走势的性质，不断重新考虑你的投资论点并重新评估是什么推动了价格走势是很重要的。在我看来，在这些情况下，技术分析占据了主导地位，我将指出许多因素表明现在可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: CNBC(GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.</p><p><blockquote>想想今年早些时候GME的上涨，当时它在一群动量或“模因”股票中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7日移动平均线，蓝色表示50日移动平均线，绿色表示200日移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破7日移动平均线之后总是会出现两个方向的大幅波动。在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7日移动平均线似乎是价格走势最有用的指标。正如您在图表中看到的，在2月、3月和6月，当GME价格突破7日移动平均线时，随之而来的是大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了一定程度的一致支撑，为走势中的几次反弹提供了一定程度的支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: CNBC [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.</p><p><blockquote>当我看AMC的图表时，它让我想起了2021年2月的GME。上涨迅速而明显（约23天内上涨约350%），类似于GME 2月份的上涨（约21天内上涨约1,525%）。两者都导致短期内7日移动平均线和50日移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从GME的图表中可以看出，在前一周触及约350美元后，它最终测试了约45-50美元附近的50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.<i>This scenario offers ~60% downside.</i>Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.</p><p><blockquote>与GME类似，AMC在此次上涨后也在7日均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果AMC无法突破62.55美元并呈现新的动能，则有双重见顶的风险，向下突破7日均线，并重新测试20美元附近的50日均线。<i>这种情况会带来约60%的负面影响。</i>尽管我通常不会通过观察时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两种走势在时间段方面的相似性，并对GME走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索兴趣：动量故事</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上基于势头，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME的搜索兴趣在1月底2月初迅速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的利息峰值几乎与价格峰值完全一致，利息下降与价格下降完全一致。同样，在测试45美元左右的50日移动平均线后，其利息反弹跟随价格反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>当您查看AMC的谷歌搜索兴趣时，您还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后随后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是GME 2月份下跌的领先指标，因此该图表可能表明如果无法反弹，可能会出现潜在的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cross-Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交叉分析</b></blockquote></p><p> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.</p><p><blockquote>当你将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互绘制图表时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在测量大量数字（如交易量与兴趣）时存在缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表显示变量具有相关性，尤其是在剧烈波动的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在波动相对较小的时候偏离，但当事情以波动的方式发展时，他们会保持一种关系。在股价上涨后，搜索兴趣和交易量似乎直接引领或下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。考虑一下GME的搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格下跌的，以及AMC的搜索兴趣最近是如何以类似的方式突破其价格的。</blockquote></p><p> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场中的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此对分析最有用。</blockquote></p><p> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.</p><p><blockquote>许多人为推动这一举措提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙述、伽马或轧空，或者股票发行带来的新资本涌入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的价格大幅上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均值并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.</p><p><blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利了结超过50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，在预期大幅下跌的情况下建仓似乎是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.</p><p><blockquote>AMC看跌论点的风险包括新的动能和7日移动平均线上方的持续强势。正如我之前所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果AMC保持在该平均线之上并缩小7日与20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在触及新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在这么短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动量和技术因素就会接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的下行空间。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。然而，AMC看起来与GME 2月份的走势类似，看跌双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion</p><p><blockquote>结论</blockquote></p><p></p><p> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.</p><p><blockquote>在1月份写了一篇关于AMC的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股，认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与GME 2月份上涨和回落的技术相似性。在这样的事件中，催化剂会变得不稳定，评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当股价大幅上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结的时间，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动力作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是鲜明且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更加温和。虽然推动AMC崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更重要，那就是动量故事。根据我们对GME的研究，考虑到20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，7日移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。随着谷歌搜索趋势、交易量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明情况正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。人们应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于站在另一边，现在就考虑相应地建仓。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）发起小仓位或对冲。如果价格走势向下，走势将会剧烈，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里可能是有意义的，而且借贷成本似乎没有那么高，因为做空股票的百分比不是GME的水平，但那里固有的风险更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157739738","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.\nImportant short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.\nGiven the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.\n\nBCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nOver the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.\nTechnical Analysis\nSource: CNBC(GameStop)\nConsider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.\nInterestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.\nSource: CNBC [AMC]\nWhen I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.\nSimilarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.This scenario offers ~60% downside.Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.\nGoogle Search Interest: The Momentum Story\nSource: Google Search Trends (GameStop)\nAs these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.\nSource: Google Search Trends [AMC]\nWhen you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.\nCross-Analysis\nWhen you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.\nSource: ValueMan\nWhen considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.\nSource: ValueMan\nAMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.\nWhile this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.\nMany have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.\nI think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.\nRisks\nThe risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.\nConclusion\nAfter writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162417778,"gmtCreate":1624071301694,"gmtModify":1631890127289,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NEVer SELLING","listText":"NEVer SELLING","text":"NEVer SELLING","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162417778","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162417267,"gmtCreate":1624071288959,"gmtModify":1631890127296,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh pls stop Manipulating us","listText":"Oh pls stop Manipulating us","text":"Oh pls stop Manipulating us","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162417267","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162414232,"gmtCreate":1624071250926,"gmtModify":1631890127297,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon 🚀🚀🚀","listText":"To the moon 🚀🚀🚀","text":"To the moon 🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162414232","repostId":"2144243772","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162415537,"gmtCreate":1624071219829,"gmtModify":1631890127298,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fake news … manipulating us","listText":"Fake news … manipulating us","text":"Fake news … manipulating us","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162415537","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"SNDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162416554,"gmtCreate":1624071132278,"gmtModify":1631890127302,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","listText":"Only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","text":"Only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3595f1f79f3704c07db8e7e2ce4b3b69","width":"1125","height":"2507"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162416554","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187044117,"gmtCreate":1623732315839,"gmtModify":1631890127305,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Missing amc, article not comprehensive","listText":"Missing amc, article not comprehensive","text":"Missing amc, article not comprehensive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187044117","repostId":"1127219232","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187042300,"gmtCreate":1623732224700,"gmtModify":1631892441273,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187042300","repostId":"1156506261","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156506261","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1623726665,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156506261?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Shorts Get Smoked Again And Options Traders Hammer Calls<blockquote>AMC空头再次被吸走，期权交易员重创评级</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156506261","media":"Benzinga","summary":"AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. was trading up 22%, at one point, Monday afternoon amid continued r","content":"<p><b>AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;was trading up 22%, at one point, Monday afternoon amid continued&nbsp;retail interest&nbsp;in squeezing institutions and hedge funds who have short positions on the stock.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线控股公司。</b>周一下午，由于散户对挤压持有该股空头头寸的机构和对冲基金的兴趣持续浓厚，该股股价一度上涨22%。</blockquote></p><p> Between May 24 and June 2, AMC’s stock skyrocketed 496% to $72.62 before falling 45% to $39.71 where it found a bottom. The stock has since made a run back up and on Monday gapped up just over 4%. The gap left below didn’t scare off traders who came in and immediately purchased shares and options contracts of AMC, which caused the stock to run north even further.</p><p><blockquote>5月24日至6月2日期间，AMC股价飙升496%至72.62美元，随后下跌45%至39.71美元并触底。此后该股反弹，周一跳空上涨略高于4%。下方留下的缺口并没有吓跑进来并立即购买AMC股票和期权合约的交易员，这导致该股进一步向北运行。</blockquote></p><p> Bullish AMC options are betting AMC is in for an even larger squeeze and purchased hundreds of call contracts totally well over $8.68 million.</p><p><blockquote>看涨AMC期权押注AMC将面临更大的挤压，并购买了数百份看涨期权合约，总价值远超868万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It’s Important:</b>When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要：</b>当出现扫单时，表明交易者希望快速建仓，并预计股价即将大幅波动。清扫者为看涨期权期权支付市场价格，而不是出价，清扫多个交易所的订单簿以立即履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> These types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.</p><p><blockquote>这些类型的看涨期权期权订单通常由机构发出，散户投资者会发现观察清道夫很有用，因为这表明“聪明的资金”已经建仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The AMC Entertainment Option Trades:</b>Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线期权交易：</b>以下是由Benzinga Pro提供的值得注意的选项警报：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>At 10:25 a.m., Monday a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 200 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $148,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $7.40 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 223 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $335,615 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.05 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 321 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $487,920 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.20 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:42 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 220 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $29 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $563,200 bullish bet for which the trader paid $25.60 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 304 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $442,320 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.55 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep above the ask of 615 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $900,975 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.65 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:59 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 769 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $1.46 million bullish bet for which the trader paid $19.05 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:19 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 1461 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $85 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $555,180 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.80 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:20 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 719 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $738,413 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.27 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:21 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 644 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $669,760 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.40 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 12:51 p.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 303 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $209,070 bullish bet for which the trader paid $6.90 per option contract.</li> </ul> <b>AMC Price Action:</b>Shares of AMC Entertainment closed up 15.38% to $57.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周一上午10点25分，一名交易员在200份AMC院线期权要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价为145美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了148,000美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了7.40美元。</li><li>上午10点36分，一名交易员在223份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了335,615美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了15.05美元。</li><li>上午10点36分，一名交易员在321份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了487,920美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了15.20美元。</li><li>上午10点42分，一名交易员在220份执行价为29美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了563,200美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了25.60美元。</li><li>上午10点52分，一名交易员在304份7月2日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表442,320美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付14.55美元。</li><li>上午10点52分，一名交易员执行了高于615份AMC院线期权要价的看涨期权清仓，执行价格为60美元，将于6月18日到期。该交易代表了900,975美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了14.65美元。</li><li>上午10点59分，一名交易员在769份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了146万美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了19.05美元。</li><li>上午11点19分，一名交易员在1461份6月18日到期的AMC院线期权要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓操作，执行价为85美元。该交易代表了555,180美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.80美元。</li><li>上午11点20分，一名交易员在719份执行价为55美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了738,413美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.27美元。</li><li>上午11点21分，一名交易员在644份6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓操作，执行价为55美元。该交易代表了669,760美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.40美元。</li><li>中午12点51分，一名交易员在303份AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为65美元，将于6月18日到期。该交易代表了209,070美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了6.90美元。</li></ul><b>AMC价格走势：</b>AMC院线股价收盘上涨15.38%，至57美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Shorts Get Smoked Again And Options Traders Hammer Calls<blockquote>AMC空头再次被吸走，期权交易员重创评级</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Shorts Get Smoked Again And Options Traders Hammer Calls<blockquote>AMC空头再次被吸走，期权交易员重创评级</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-15 11:11</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;was trading up 22%, at one point, Monday afternoon amid continued&nbsp;retail interest&nbsp;in squeezing institutions and hedge funds who have short positions on the stock.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线控股公司。</b>周一下午，由于散户对挤压持有该股空头头寸的机构和对冲基金的兴趣持续浓厚，该股股价一度上涨22%。</blockquote></p><p> Between May 24 and June 2, AMC’s stock skyrocketed 496% to $72.62 before falling 45% to $39.71 where it found a bottom. The stock has since made a run back up and on Monday gapped up just over 4%. The gap left below didn’t scare off traders who came in and immediately purchased shares and options contracts of AMC, which caused the stock to run north even further.</p><p><blockquote>5月24日至6月2日期间，AMC股价飙升496%至72.62美元，随后下跌45%至39.71美元并触底。此后该股反弹，周一跳空上涨略高于4%。下方留下的缺口并没有吓跑进来并立即购买AMC股票和期权合约的交易员，这导致该股进一步向北运行。</blockquote></p><p> Bullish AMC options are betting AMC is in for an even larger squeeze and purchased hundreds of call contracts totally well over $8.68 million.</p><p><blockquote>看涨AMC期权押注AMC将面临更大的挤压，并购买了数百份看涨期权合约，总价值远超868万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It’s Important:</b>When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要：</b>当出现扫单时，表明交易者希望快速建仓，并预计股价即将大幅波动。清扫者为看涨期权期权支付市场价格，而不是出价，清扫多个交易所的订单簿以立即履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> These types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.</p><p><blockquote>这些类型的看涨期权期权订单通常由机构发出，散户投资者会发现观察清道夫很有用，因为这表明“聪明的资金”已经建仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The AMC Entertainment Option Trades:</b>Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线期权交易：</b>以下是由Benzinga Pro提供的值得注意的选项警报：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>At 10:25 a.m., Monday a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 200 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $148,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $7.40 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 223 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $335,615 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.05 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 321 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $487,920 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.20 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:42 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 220 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $29 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $563,200 bullish bet for which the trader paid $25.60 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 304 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $442,320 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.55 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep above the ask of 615 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $900,975 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.65 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:59 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 769 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $1.46 million bullish bet for which the trader paid $19.05 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:19 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 1461 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $85 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $555,180 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.80 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:20 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 719 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $738,413 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.27 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:21 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 644 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $669,760 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.40 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 12:51 p.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 303 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $209,070 bullish bet for which the trader paid $6.90 per option contract.</li> </ul> <b>AMC Price Action:</b>Shares of AMC Entertainment closed up 15.38% to $57.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周一上午10点25分，一名交易员在200份AMC院线期权要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价为145美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了148,000美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了7.40美元。</li><li>上午10点36分，一名交易员在223份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了335,615美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了15.05美元。</li><li>上午10点36分，一名交易员在321份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了487,920美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了15.20美元。</li><li>上午10点42分，一名交易员在220份执行价为29美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了563,200美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了25.60美元。</li><li>上午10点52分，一名交易员在304份7月2日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表442,320美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付14.55美元。</li><li>上午10点52分，一名交易员执行了高于615份AMC院线期权要价的看涨期权清仓，执行价格为60美元，将于6月18日到期。该交易代表了900,975美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了14.65美元。</li><li>上午10点59分，一名交易员在769份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了146万美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了19.05美元。</li><li>上午11点19分，一名交易员在1461份6月18日到期的AMC院线期权要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓操作，执行价为85美元。该交易代表了555,180美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.80美元。</li><li>上午11点20分，一名交易员在719份执行价为55美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了738,413美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.27美元。</li><li>上午11点21分，一名交易员在644份6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓操作，执行价为55美元。该交易代表了669,760美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.40美元。</li><li>中午12点51分，一名交易员在303份AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为65美元，将于6月18日到期。该交易代表了209,070美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了6.90美元。</li></ul><b>AMC价格走势：</b>AMC院线股价收盘上涨15.38%，至57美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156506261","content_text":"AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. was trading up 22%, at one point, Monday afternoon amid continued retail interest in squeezing institutions and hedge funds who have short positions on the stock.\nBetween May 24 and June 2, AMC’s stock skyrocketed 496% to $72.62 before falling 45% to $39.71 where it found a bottom. The stock has since made a run back up and on Monday gapped up just over 4%. The gap left below didn’t scare off traders who came in and immediately purchased shares and options contracts of AMC, which caused the stock to run north even further.\nBullish AMC options are betting AMC is in for an even larger squeeze and purchased hundreds of call contracts totally well over $8.68 million.\nWhy It’s Important:When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.\nThese types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.\nThe AMC Entertainment Option Trades:Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:\n\nAt 10:25 a.m., Monday a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 200 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $148,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $7.40 per option contract.\nAt 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 223 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $335,615 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.05 per option contract.\nAt 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 321 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $487,920 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.20 per option contract.\nAt 10:42 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 220 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $29 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $563,200 bullish bet for which the trader paid $25.60 per option contract.\nAt 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 304 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $442,320 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.55 per option contract.\nAt 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep above the ask of 615 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $900,975 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.65 per option contract.\nAt 10:59 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 769 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $1.46 million bullish bet for which the trader paid $19.05 per option contract.\nAt 11:19 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 1461 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $85 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $555,180 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.80 per option contract.\nAt 11:20 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 719 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $738,413 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.27 per option contract.\nAt 11:21 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 644 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $669,760 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.40 per option contract.\nAt 12:51 p.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 303 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $209,070 bullish bet for which the trader paid $6.90 per option contract.\n\nAMC Price Action:Shares of AMC Entertainment closed up 15.38% to $57.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187048677,"gmtCreate":1623732144199,"gmtModify":1631892441278,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>After ytds gains&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>After ytds gains&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$After ytds gains","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf32d09957c664a294f894943054c06a","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187048677","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187048038,"gmtCreate":1623732095824,"gmtModify":1631892441280,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go go go!","listText":"Go go go!","text":"Go go go!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9e47978e04a32b3129495b3690f701","width":"1125","height":"2507"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187048038","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185712705,"gmtCreate":1623673216507,"gmtModify":1631892441281,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AMC TO THE MOON","listText":"AMC TO THE MOON","text":"AMC TO THE MOON","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185712705","repostId":"1190645365","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182642420,"gmtCreate":1623571888960,"gmtModify":1631892441284,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AMC BB CLOV CLNE WISH TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀","listText":"AMC BB CLOV CLNE WISH TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀","text":"AMC BB CLOV CLNE WISH TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182642420","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDCE":"PDC Energy","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"PDCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182646545,"gmtCreate":1623571808987,"gmtModify":1631892441287,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TO THE MOON","listText":"TO THE MOON","text":"TO THE MOON","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c321701dac113252dffae5591d0481c0","width":"1125","height":"2344"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182646545","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182373250,"gmtCreate":1623555926170,"gmtModify":1631892441289,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What??&nbsp;","listText":"What??&nbsp;","text":"What??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182373250","repostId":"2142788912","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186185908,"gmtCreate":1623478502604,"gmtModify":1631892441294,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahahaha stupid hedges…we apes are winning&nbsp;","listText":"Hahahaha stupid hedges…we apes are winning&nbsp;","text":"Hahahaha stupid hedges…we apes are winning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186185908","repostId":"2142202756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186182486,"gmtCreate":1623478479745,"gmtModify":1631892441294,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple shares gna&nbsp;rocket","listText":"Apple shares gna&nbsp;rocket","text":"Apple shares gna rocket","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186182486","repostId":"1131421513","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186182916,"gmtCreate":1623478454235,"gmtModify":1631892441300,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too volatile now","listText":"Too volatile now","text":"Too volatile now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186182916","repostId":"1133871419","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":162415537,"gmtCreate":1624071219829,"gmtModify":1631890127298,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fake news … manipulating us","listText":"Fake news … manipulating us","text":"Fake news … manipulating us","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162415537","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"SNDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187042300,"gmtCreate":1623732224700,"gmtModify":1631892441273,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187042300","repostId":"1156506261","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156506261","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1623726665,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156506261?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Shorts Get Smoked Again And Options Traders Hammer Calls<blockquote>AMC空头再次被吸走，期权交易员重创评级</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156506261","media":"Benzinga","summary":"AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. was trading up 22%, at one point, Monday afternoon amid continued r","content":"<p><b>AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;was trading up 22%, at one point, Monday afternoon amid continued&nbsp;retail interest&nbsp;in squeezing institutions and hedge funds who have short positions on the stock.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线控股公司。</b>周一下午，由于散户对挤压持有该股空头头寸的机构和对冲基金的兴趣持续浓厚，该股股价一度上涨22%。</blockquote></p><p> Between May 24 and June 2, AMC’s stock skyrocketed 496% to $72.62 before falling 45% to $39.71 where it found a bottom. The stock has since made a run back up and on Monday gapped up just over 4%. The gap left below didn’t scare off traders who came in and immediately purchased shares and options contracts of AMC, which caused the stock to run north even further.</p><p><blockquote>5月24日至6月2日期间，AMC股价飙升496%至72.62美元，随后下跌45%至39.71美元并触底。此后该股反弹，周一跳空上涨略高于4%。下方留下的缺口并没有吓跑进来并立即购买AMC股票和期权合约的交易员，这导致该股进一步向北运行。</blockquote></p><p> Bullish AMC options are betting AMC is in for an even larger squeeze and purchased hundreds of call contracts totally well over $8.68 million.</p><p><blockquote>看涨AMC期权押注AMC将面临更大的挤压，并购买了数百份看涨期权合约，总价值远超868万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It’s Important:</b>When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要：</b>当出现扫单时，表明交易者希望快速建仓，并预计股价即将大幅波动。清扫者为看涨期权期权支付市场价格，而不是出价，清扫多个交易所的订单簿以立即履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> These types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.</p><p><blockquote>这些类型的看涨期权期权订单通常由机构发出，散户投资者会发现观察清道夫很有用，因为这表明“聪明的资金”已经建仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The AMC Entertainment Option Trades:</b>Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线期权交易：</b>以下是由Benzinga Pro提供的值得注意的选项警报：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>At 10:25 a.m., Monday a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 200 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $148,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $7.40 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 223 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $335,615 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.05 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 321 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $487,920 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.20 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:42 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 220 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $29 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $563,200 bullish bet for which the trader paid $25.60 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 304 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $442,320 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.55 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep above the ask of 615 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $900,975 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.65 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:59 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 769 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $1.46 million bullish bet for which the trader paid $19.05 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:19 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 1461 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $85 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $555,180 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.80 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:20 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 719 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $738,413 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.27 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:21 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 644 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $669,760 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.40 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 12:51 p.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 303 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $209,070 bullish bet for which the trader paid $6.90 per option contract.</li> </ul> <b>AMC Price Action:</b>Shares of AMC Entertainment closed up 15.38% to $57.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周一上午10点25分，一名交易员在200份AMC院线期权要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价为145美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了148,000美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了7.40美元。</li><li>上午10点36分，一名交易员在223份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了335,615美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了15.05美元。</li><li>上午10点36分，一名交易员在321份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了487,920美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了15.20美元。</li><li>上午10点42分，一名交易员在220份执行价为29美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了563,200美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了25.60美元。</li><li>上午10点52分，一名交易员在304份7月2日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表442,320美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付14.55美元。</li><li>上午10点52分，一名交易员执行了高于615份AMC院线期权要价的看涨期权清仓，执行价格为60美元，将于6月18日到期。该交易代表了900,975美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了14.65美元。</li><li>上午10点59分，一名交易员在769份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了146万美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了19.05美元。</li><li>上午11点19分，一名交易员在1461份6月18日到期的AMC院线期权要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓操作，执行价为85美元。该交易代表了555,180美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.80美元。</li><li>上午11点20分，一名交易员在719份执行价为55美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了738,413美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.27美元。</li><li>上午11点21分，一名交易员在644份6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓操作，执行价为55美元。该交易代表了669,760美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.40美元。</li><li>中午12点51分，一名交易员在303份AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为65美元，将于6月18日到期。该交易代表了209,070美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了6.90美元。</li></ul><b>AMC价格走势：</b>AMC院线股价收盘上涨15.38%，至57美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Shorts Get Smoked Again And Options Traders Hammer Calls<blockquote>AMC空头再次被吸走，期权交易员重创评级</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Shorts Get Smoked Again And Options Traders Hammer Calls<blockquote>AMC空头再次被吸走，期权交易员重创评级</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-15 11:11</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.</b>&nbsp;was trading up 22%, at one point, Monday afternoon amid continued&nbsp;retail interest&nbsp;in squeezing institutions and hedge funds who have short positions on the stock.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线控股公司。</b>周一下午，由于散户对挤压持有该股空头头寸的机构和对冲基金的兴趣持续浓厚，该股股价一度上涨22%。</blockquote></p><p> Between May 24 and June 2, AMC’s stock skyrocketed 496% to $72.62 before falling 45% to $39.71 where it found a bottom. The stock has since made a run back up and on Monday gapped up just over 4%. The gap left below didn’t scare off traders who came in and immediately purchased shares and options contracts of AMC, which caused the stock to run north even further.</p><p><blockquote>5月24日至6月2日期间，AMC股价飙升496%至72.62美元，随后下跌45%至39.71美元并触底。此后该股反弹，周一跳空上涨略高于4%。下方留下的缺口并没有吓跑进来并立即购买AMC股票和期权合约的交易员，这导致该股进一步向北运行。</blockquote></p><p> Bullish AMC options are betting AMC is in for an even larger squeeze and purchased hundreds of call contracts totally well over $8.68 million.</p><p><blockquote>看涨AMC期权押注AMC将面临更大的挤压，并购买了数百份看涨期权合约，总价值远超868万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It’s Important:</b>When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要：</b>当出现扫单时，表明交易者希望快速建仓，并预计股价即将大幅波动。清扫者为看涨期权期权支付市场价格，而不是出价，清扫多个交易所的订单簿以立即履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> These types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.</p><p><blockquote>这些类型的看涨期权期权订单通常由机构发出，散户投资者会发现观察清道夫很有用，因为这表明“聪明的资金”已经建仓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The AMC Entertainment Option Trades:</b>Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线期权交易：</b>以下是由Benzinga Pro提供的值得注意的选项警报：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>At 10:25 a.m., Monday a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 200 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $148,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $7.40 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 223 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $335,615 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.05 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 321 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $487,920 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.20 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:42 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 220 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $29 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $563,200 bullish bet for which the trader paid $25.60 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 304 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $442,320 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.55 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep above the ask of 615 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $900,975 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.65 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 10:59 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 769 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $1.46 million bullish bet for which the trader paid $19.05 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:19 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 1461 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $85 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $555,180 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.80 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:20 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 719 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $738,413 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.27 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 11:21 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 644 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $669,760 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.40 per option contract.</li>  <li>At 12:51 p.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 303 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $209,070 bullish bet for which the trader paid $6.90 per option contract.</li> </ul> <b>AMC Price Action:</b>Shares of AMC Entertainment closed up 15.38% to $57.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周一上午10点25分，一名交易员在200份AMC院线期权要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价为145美元，将于7月16日到期。该交易代表了148,000美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了7.40美元。</li><li>上午10点36分，一名交易员在223份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了335,615美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了15.05美元。</li><li>上午10点36分，一名交易员在321份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了487,920美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了15.20美元。</li><li>上午10点42分，一名交易员在220份执行价为29美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了563,200美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了25.60美元。</li><li>上午10点52分，一名交易员在304份7月2日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表442,320美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付14.55美元。</li><li>上午10点52分，一名交易员执行了高于615份AMC院线期权要价的看涨期权清仓，执行价格为60美元，将于6月18日到期。该交易代表了900,975美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了14.65美元。</li><li>上午10点59分，一名交易员在769份执行价为40美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了146万美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了19.05美元。</li><li>上午11点19分，一名交易员在1461份6月18日到期的AMC院线期权要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓操作，执行价为85美元。该交易代表了555,180美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了3.80美元。</li><li>上午11点20分，一名交易员在719份执行价为55美元、将于6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓。该交易代表了738,413美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.27美元。</li><li>上午11点21分，一名交易员在644份6月18日到期的AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓操作，执行价为55美元。该交易代表了669,760美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了10.40美元。</li><li>中午12点51分，一名交易员在303份AMC院线期权的要价附近执行了看涨期权清仓，执行价格为65美元，将于6月18日到期。该交易代表了209,070美元的看涨押注，交易者为每份期权合约支付了6.90美元。</li></ul><b>AMC价格走势：</b>AMC院线股价收盘上涨15.38%，至57美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156506261","content_text":"AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. was trading up 22%, at one point, Monday afternoon amid continued retail interest in squeezing institutions and hedge funds who have short positions on the stock.\nBetween May 24 and June 2, AMC’s stock skyrocketed 496% to $72.62 before falling 45% to $39.71 where it found a bottom. The stock has since made a run back up and on Monday gapped up just over 4%. The gap left below didn’t scare off traders who came in and immediately purchased shares and options contracts of AMC, which caused the stock to run north even further.\nBullish AMC options are betting AMC is in for an even larger squeeze and purchased hundreds of call contracts totally well over $8.68 million.\nWhy It’s Important:When a sweep order occurs, it indicates the trader wanted to get into a position quickly and is anticipating an imminent large move in stock price. A sweeper pays market price for the call option instead of placing a bid, which sweeps the order book of multiple exchanges to fill the order immediately.\nThese types of call option orders are usually made by institutions, and retail investors can find watching for sweepers useful because it indicates “smart money” has entered into a position.\nThe AMC Entertainment Option Trades:Below is a look at the notable options alerts, courtesy ofBenzinga Pro:\n\nAt 10:25 a.m., Monday a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 200 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $145 expiring on July 16. The trade represented a $148,000 bullish bet for which the trader paid $7.40 per option contract.\nAt 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 223 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $335,615 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.05 per option contract.\nAt 10:36 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 321 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $487,920 bullish bet for which the trader paid $15.20 per option contract.\nAt 10:42 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 220 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $29 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $563,200 bullish bet for which the trader paid $25.60 per option contract.\nAt 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 304 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on July 2. The trade represented a $442,320 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.55 per option contract.\nAt 10:52 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep above the ask of 615 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $60 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $900,975 bullish bet for which the trader paid $14.65 per option contract.\nAt 10:59 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 769 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $40 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $1.46 million bullish bet for which the trader paid $19.05 per option contract.\nAt 11:19 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 1461 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $85 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $555,180 bullish bet for which the trader paid $3.80 per option contract.\nAt 11:20 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 719 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $738,413 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.27 per option contract.\nAt 11:21 a.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 644 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $55 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $669,760 bullish bet for which the trader paid $10.40 per option contract.\nAt 12:51 p.m., a trader executed a call sweep near the ask of 303 AMC Entertainment options with a strike price of $65 expiring on June 18. The trade represented a $209,070 bullish bet for which the trader paid $6.90 per option contract.\n\nAMC Price Action:Shares of AMC Entertainment closed up 15.38% to $57.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187048677,"gmtCreate":1623732144199,"gmtModify":1631892441278,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>After ytds gains&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>After ytds gains&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$After ytds gains","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf32d09957c664a294f894943054c06a","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187048677","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182642420,"gmtCreate":1623571888960,"gmtModify":1631892441284,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AMC BB CLOV CLNE WISH TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀","listText":"AMC BB CLOV CLNE WISH TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀","text":"AMC BB CLOV CLNE WISH TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182642420","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线处于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDCE":"PDC Energy","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"PDCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186182916,"gmtCreate":1623478454235,"gmtModify":1631892441300,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too volatile now","listText":"Too volatile now","text":"Too volatile now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186182916","repostId":"1133871419","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186135446,"gmtCreate":1623477601585,"gmtModify":1634032574731,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AMC BB CLOV CLNE WISH TO THE MOon!!!! 🚀🚀🚀🚀","listText":"AMC BB CLOV CLNE WISH TO THE MOon!!!! 🚀🚀🚀🚀","text":"AMC BB CLOV CLNE WISH TO THE MOon!!!! 🚀🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186135446","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186138410,"gmtCreate":1623477426130,"gmtModify":1634032577156,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>🚀🚀🚀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>🚀🚀🚀","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$🚀🚀🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8de21f299993edc8efa534ac3d3a36df","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186138410","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162414232,"gmtCreate":1624071250926,"gmtModify":1631890127297,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon 🚀🚀🚀","listText":"To the moon 🚀🚀🚀","text":"To the moon 🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162414232","repostId":"2144243772","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162487407,"gmtCreate":1624071621809,"gmtModify":1631890127280,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahah dumb short sellers","listText":"Hahah dumb short sellers","text":"Hahah dumb short sellers","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162487407","repostId":"2143680756","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2143680756","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623754913,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143680756?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 19:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC short sellers lost $488 mln after Monday's rally - Ortex<blockquote>AMC卖空者在周一上涨后损失了4.88亿美元-Ortex</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143680756","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 15 (Reuters) - Investors shorting \"meme stock\" AMC Entertainment    are estimated to have lost ","content":"<p><html><body>June 15 (Reuters) - Investors shorting \"meme stock\" AMC Entertainment    are estimated to have lost about $488 million on Monday after a rally that sent the cinema operator's shares up more than 15%, data from financial analytics firm Ortex showed.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透6月15日-金融分析公司Ortex的数据显示，周一做空“模因股票”AMC院线的投资者估计损失了约4.88亿美元，此前该影院运营商的股价上涨了15%以上。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   By contrast, AMC short-sellers suffered $1.2 billion in mark-to-market losses for the week to May 28, when small-time traders on online discussion groups sent the stock up about 116%, triggering a phenomenon known as a \"short squeeze\".</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，截至5月28日当周，AMC卖空者按市值计算遭受了12亿美元的损失，当时在线讨论组上的小型交易员将该股推高了约116%，引发了一种被称为“轧空”的现象。</blockquote></p><p>   AMC shares were down 0.1% in premarket trading on Tuesday. The stock has surged more than 2,500% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价周二盘前交易中下跌0.1%。今年迄今为止，该股已飙升超过2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> (Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bengaluru and Sujata Rao in London; Editing by Anil D'Silva)</p><p><blockquote>（Sagarika Jaisinghani在班加罗尔和Sujata Rao在伦敦报道；Anil D'Silva编辑）</blockquote></p><p>((sagarika.jaisinghani@thomsonreuters.com;))</p><p><blockquote>（（sagarika.jaisinghani@thomsonreuters.com；））</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC short sellers lost $488 mln after Monday's rally - Ortex<blockquote>AMC卖空者在周一上涨后损失了4.88亿美元-Ortex</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC short sellers lost $488 mln after Monday's rally - Ortex<blockquote>AMC卖空者在周一上涨后损失了4.88亿美元-Ortex</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-15 19:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>June 15 (Reuters) - Investors shorting \"meme stock\" AMC Entertainment    are estimated to have lost about $488 million on Monday after a rally that sent the cinema operator's shares up more than 15%, data from financial analytics firm Ortex showed.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透6月15日-金融分析公司Ortex的数据显示，周一做空“模因股票”AMC院线的投资者估计损失了约4.88亿美元，此前该影院运营商的股价上涨了15%以上。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   By contrast, AMC short-sellers suffered $1.2 billion in mark-to-market losses for the week to May 28, when small-time traders on online discussion groups sent the stock up about 116%, triggering a phenomenon known as a \"short squeeze\".</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，截至5月28日当周，AMC卖空者按市值计算遭受了12亿美元的损失，当时在线讨论组上的小型交易员将该股推高了约116%，引发了一种被称为“轧空”的现象。</blockquote></p><p>   AMC shares were down 0.1% in premarket trading on Tuesday. The stock has surged more than 2,500% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股价周二盘前交易中下跌0.1%。今年迄今为止，该股已飙升超过2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> (Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bengaluru and Sujata Rao in London; Editing by Anil D'Silva)</p><p><blockquote>（Sagarika Jaisinghani在班加罗尔和Sujata Rao在伦敦报道；Anil D'Silva编辑）</blockquote></p><p>((sagarika.jaisinghani@thomsonreuters.com;))</p><p><blockquote>（（sagarika.jaisinghani@thomsonreuters.com；））</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143680756","content_text":"June 15 (Reuters) - Investors shorting \"meme stock\" AMC Entertainment    are estimated to have lost about $488 million on Monday after a rally that sent the cinema operator's shares up more than 15%, data from financial analytics firm Ortex showed.   By contrast, AMC short-sellers suffered $1.2 billion in mark-to-market losses for the week to May 28, when small-time traders on online discussion groups sent the stock up about 116%, triggering a phenomenon known as a \"short squeeze\".   AMC shares were down 0.1% in premarket trading on Tuesday. The stock has surged more than 2,500% so far this year. (Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bengaluru and Sujata Rao in London; Editing by Anil D'Silva)((sagarika.jaisinghani@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162486528,"gmtCreate":1624071467564,"gmtModify":1631890127282,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀","listText":"The only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀","text":"The only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162486528","repostId":"1189515948","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162486076,"gmtCreate":1624071438895,"gmtModify":1631890127283,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀","listText":"TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀","text":"TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162486076","repostId":"1148768572","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148768572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623822306,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148768572?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148768572","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce tradi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>  <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>  <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>  <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wish(ContextLogic)仍然是电子商务交易中最被低估的资产之一，其远期EV与销售额之比仅为1.3倍。</li><li>Wish与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将进一步加速国际扩张和增长计划。</li><li>虽然很难找到有关其空头利息的准确数据，因为其大部分流通量仍被锁定，但我估计空头利息在30-40%之间。</li><li>我相信，包括高额营销支出和用户数量停滞在内的看跌论点已经在当前股价中根深蒂固。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JuSun/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic(WISH)对股东来说是一段疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于12月以每股20美元的价格上市，随后由于势头驱动的反弹，在2月份飙升至32美元的历史高点。尽管如此，自那以后，股价稳步暴跌，在6月份触及仅7美元的历史低点，但在零售交易部门的兴趣增加后，现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、空头兴趣和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我认为高空头兴趣越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到20美元或更多，因为该公司正在应对物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，该电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字美元树</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p><p><blockquote>Wish作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者迄今为止远离了该股。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish通过低价（低质量）产品和缓慢的交付时间（可能导致长达一周的交付时间）扭转了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish本身不处理运输，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低价格，提供2美元加2美元运费的连帽衫。</blockquote></p><p> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的认知度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我将Wish视为数字美元树，在线购物者在这里发现他们想要而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品更有耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付，物流收入同比增长275%就证明了这一点。由于这些收入的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至70%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p><p><blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，在其他国家也可以看到类似的趋势。此外，它正在增长Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业与平台连接起来的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或专门）在美国销售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：传感器塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p><p><blockquote>我还喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统可以优化平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创造互动移动购物体验的策略似乎运作良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，展示了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中站稳脚跟，为其提供了巨大的增长空间。目前，大约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其TAM可能有限，因为它专注于低收入利基市场，这也是它最初受欢迎的原因。尽管如此，这仍为Wish提供了超过3万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为该业务的年销售额将增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>负面情绪根深蒂固</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>Wish的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司消耗了超过3亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，月活跃用户数稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于该公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再重视广告和客户获取。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</td>    <td>2020</td>    <td>2019</td>    <td>2018</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue</td>    <td>$2.54B</td>    <td>$1.9B</td>    <td>$1.73B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</td>    <td>$1.59B</td>    <td>$1.46B</td>    <td>$1.45B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>    <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>MAUs</td>    <td>107M (+19%)</td>    <td>90M (+10%)</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$2.54 B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>$1.73 B</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>$1.59 B</td><td>$1.46 B</td><td>$1.45 B</td></tr><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td><td><b>$17.1亿(+17%)</b></td><td><b>$1.46 B(-7%)</b></td><td><b>$1.57 B</b></td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿(+19%)</td><td>9000万(+10%)</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>82M</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>    <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>    <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>    <td><b>64M</b></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)</p><p><blockquote><td>82M</td><tr><td><b>活跃买家</b></td><td><b>6400万(+3%)</b></td><td><b>6200万(-3%)</b></td><td><b>64M</b></td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote></p><p> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p><p><blockquote>Wish最大的看跌理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的60%和毛利润的100%以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销增加活跃买家，不幸的是事实并非如此。这是一个危险信号，并质疑Wish商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司一直接近正现金流，并表示如果不是因为其大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的月活跃用户并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上年的67%降至60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Wish IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p><p><blockquote>就前景而言，这就是该公司本质上强调的。它相信营销费用可以降低到40-45%，从而使EBITDA利润率达到25%的中点范围。如果它实现了这些雄心勃勃的目标（这很有可能），其利润率将与eBay或MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）相似。不管怎样，Wish的商业模式并不完美，但在我看来（在我看来），所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p><p><blockquote>即使在最近上涨了50%以上之后，股价仍然远远落后于Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、Amazon和（Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP））等同行。Wish的预计收入超过30亿美元，其市销率仅为1.8倍，仅为eBay当前估值的一半，远低于Poshmark。目前的估计是，到2025年，收入将超过60亿美元，自由现金流将达到10亿美元，这意味着Wish的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的7倍，即销售额的1倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，估值存在扩张潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诉讼呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p><p><blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌并且投资者可能不关心时，此类诉讼并不罕见。这些诉讼还包括CloverHealth（纳斯达克：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Short Interest - Still High</p><p><blockquote>空头利息——仍然很高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Fintel</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p><p><blockquote>Wish已经获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大的轧空。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的做空比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其流通股的百分比约为48%。Fintel等其他消息来源将当前的空头量确定为20-30%。现在，很难给出一个确切的估计，但总体来说，很可能在这个范围内的某个地方，许多空头评级仍有待回补。从长远来看，高空头兴趣可能是一个优势，如果股票开始呈上升趋势，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p><p><blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上拥有超过1亿的月用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，比乍一看更智能。此外，其与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将为超过300,000家商家提供免费的直接集成，将他们直接连接到Wish的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。尽管Wish不完善的商业模式存在盈利能力滞后等风险，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 13:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>  <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>  <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>  <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wish(ContextLogic)仍然是电子商务交易中最被低估的资产之一，其远期EV与销售额之比仅为1.3倍。</li><li>Wish与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将进一步加速国际扩张和增长计划。</li><li>虽然很难找到有关其空头利息的准确数据，因为其大部分流通量仍被锁定，但我估计空头利息在30-40%之间。</li><li>我相信，包括高额营销支出和用户数量停滞在内的看跌论点已经在当前股价中根深蒂固。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JuSun/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic(WISH)对股东来说是一段疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于12月以每股20美元的价格上市，随后由于势头驱动的反弹，在2月份飙升至32美元的历史高点。尽管如此，自那以后，股价稳步暴跌，在6月份触及仅7美元的历史低点，但在零售交易部门的兴趣增加后，现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、空头兴趣和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我认为高空头兴趣越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到20美元或更多，因为该公司正在应对物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，该电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字美元树</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p><p><blockquote>Wish作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者迄今为止远离了该股。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish通过低价（低质量）产品和缓慢的交付时间（可能导致长达一周的交付时间）扭转了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish本身不处理运输，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低价格，提供2美元加2美元运费的连帽衫。</blockquote></p><p> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的认知度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我将Wish视为数字美元树，在线购物者在这里发现他们想要而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品更有耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付，物流收入同比增长275%就证明了这一点。由于这些收入的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至70%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p><p><blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，在其他国家也可以看到类似的趋势。此外，它正在增长Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业与平台连接起来的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或专门）在美国销售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：传感器塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p><p><blockquote>我还喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统可以优化平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创造互动移动购物体验的策略似乎运作良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，展示了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中站稳脚跟，为其提供了巨大的增长空间。目前，大约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其TAM可能有限，因为它专注于低收入利基市场，这也是它最初受欢迎的原因。尽管如此，这仍为Wish提供了超过3万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为该业务的年销售额将增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>负面情绪根深蒂固</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>Wish的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司消耗了超过3亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，月活跃用户数稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于该公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再重视广告和客户获取。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</td>    <td>2020</td>    <td>2019</td>    <td>2018</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue</td>    <td>$2.54B</td>    <td>$1.9B</td>    <td>$1.73B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</td>    <td>$1.59B</td>    <td>$1.46B</td>    <td>$1.45B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>    <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>MAUs</td>    <td>107M (+19%)</td>    <td>90M (+10%)</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$2.54 B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>$1.73 B</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>$1.59 B</td><td>$1.46 B</td><td>$1.45 B</td></tr><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td><td><b>$17.1亿(+17%)</b></td><td><b>$1.46 B(-7%)</b></td><td><b>$1.57 B</b></td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿(+19%)</td><td>9000万(+10%)</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>82M</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>    <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>    <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>    <td><b>64M</b></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)</p><p><blockquote><td>82M</td><tr><td><b>活跃买家</b></td><td><b>6400万(+3%)</b></td><td><b>6200万(-3%)</b></td><td><b>64M</b></td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote></p><p> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p><p><blockquote>Wish最大的看跌理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的60%和毛利润的100%以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销增加活跃买家，不幸的是事实并非如此。这是一个危险信号，并质疑Wish商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司一直接近正现金流，并表示如果不是因为其大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的月活跃用户并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上年的67%降至60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Wish IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p><p><blockquote>就前景而言，这就是该公司本质上强调的。它相信营销费用可以降低到40-45%，从而使EBITDA利润率达到25%的中点范围。如果它实现了这些雄心勃勃的目标（这很有可能），其利润率将与eBay或MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）相似。不管怎样，Wish的商业模式并不完美，但在我看来（在我看来），所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p><p><blockquote>即使在最近上涨了50%以上之后，股价仍然远远落后于Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、Amazon和（Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP））等同行。Wish的预计收入超过30亿美元，其市销率仅为1.8倍，仅为eBay当前估值的一半，远低于Poshmark。目前的估计是，到2025年，收入将超过60亿美元，自由现金流将达到10亿美元，这意味着Wish的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的7倍，即销售额的1倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，估值存在扩张潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诉讼呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p><p><blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌并且投资者可能不关心时，此类诉讼并不罕见。这些诉讼还包括CloverHealth（纳斯达克：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Short Interest - Still High</p><p><blockquote>空头利息——仍然很高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Fintel</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p><p><blockquote>Wish已经获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大的轧空。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的做空比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其流通股的百分比约为48%。Fintel等其他消息来源将当前的空头量确定为20-30%。现在，很难给出一个确切的估计，但总体来说，很可能在这个范围内的某个地方，许多空头评级仍有待回补。从长远来看，高空头兴趣可能是一个优势，如果股票开始呈上升趋势，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p><p><blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上拥有超过1亿的月用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，比乍一看更智能。此外，其与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将为超过300,000家商家提供免费的直接集成，将他们直接连接到Wish的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。尽管Wish不完善的商业模式存在盈利能力滞后等风险，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148768572","content_text":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.\nWhile accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.\nI believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.\n\nJuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nOverview\nContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.\nIn this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.\nThe Digital Dollar Tree\nWish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.\nFrankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.\n\nNow, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.\nIt is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.\nSource: Sensor Tower\nI also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.\nWish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.\nNegative Sentiment Baked In\nWish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.\n\n\n\nYear\n2020\n2019\n2018\n\n\nRevenue\n$2.54B\n$1.9B\n$1.73B\n\n\nGross Profit\n$1.59B\n$1.46B\n$1.45B\n\n\nSales and Marketing\n$1.71B (+17%)\n$1.46B (-7%)\n$1.57B\n\n\nMAUs\n107M (+19%)\n90M (+10%)\n82M\n\n\nActive Buyers\n64M (+3%)\n62M (-3%)\n64M\n\n\n\n*Growth (Year-over-Year)\nThe largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.\nSource: Wish IR\nIn terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).\nData byYCharts\nEven after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.\nWhat about the Lawsuits?\nPerhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.\nShort Interest - Still High\nSource: Fintel\nWish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.\nThe Bottom Line\nI believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WISH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162481145,"gmtCreate":1624071385787,"gmtModify":1631890127284,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"These hediges just tryna get us to sell, no WAY IN HELL,&nbsp;im&nbsp;holding 🚀🚀🚀🚀","listText":"These hediges just tryna get us to sell, no WAY IN HELL,&nbsp;im&nbsp;holding 🚀🚀🚀🚀","text":"These hediges just tryna get us to sell, no WAY IN HELL, im holding 🚀🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162481145","repostId":"1157739738","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157739738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623891796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157739738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 09:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157739738","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.When I look at AMC’s cha","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li>  <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li>  <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\"><span>BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领头羊后，AMC的举动与游戏驿站一月份的举动类似，表明可能会出现大幅下跌。</li><li>技术面、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于1月下旬GME的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BCFC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性的上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及AMC采取的行动，股价在上个月上涨了约485%。今年，AMC上涨了约763.5%，至每股约55美元，市值为$28.4 B，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景来说是根本性的破坏性。在今年早些时候游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME和其他“reddit”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压中上涨后，AMC再次获得了动力，并以其表现从该集团中脱颖而出。这篇文章将比较GME在2月份惨败中的领导地位与AMC目前的领导地位，并将评估推动这些举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于这种股票价格走势的性质，不断重新考虑你的投资论点并重新评估是什么推动了价格走势是很重要的。在我看来，在这些情况下，技术分析占据了主导地位，我将指出许多因素表明现在可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: CNBC(GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.</p><p><blockquote>想想今年早些时候GME的上涨，当时它在一群动量或“模因”股票中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7日移动平均线，蓝色表示50日移动平均线，绿色表示200日移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破7日移动平均线之后总是会出现两个方向的大幅波动。在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7日移动平均线似乎是价格走势最有用的指标。正如您在图表中看到的，在2月、3月和6月，当GME价格突破7日移动平均线时，随之而来的是大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了一定程度的一致支撑，为走势中的几次反弹提供了一定程度的支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: CNBC [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.</p><p><blockquote>当我看AMC的图表时，它让我想起了2021年2月的GME。上涨迅速而明显（约23天内上涨约350%），类似于GME 2月份的上涨（约21天内上涨约1,525%）。两者都导致短期内7日移动平均线和50日移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从GME的图表中可以看出，在前一周触及约350美元后，它最终测试了约45-50美元附近的50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.<i>This scenario offers ~60% downside.</i>Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.</p><p><blockquote>与GME类似，AMC在此次上涨后也在7日均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果AMC无法突破62.55美元并呈现新的动能，则有双重见顶的风险，向下突破7日均线，并重新测试20美元附近的50日均线。<i>这种情况会带来约60%的负面影响。</i>尽管我通常不会通过观察时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两种走势在时间段方面的相似性，并对GME走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索兴趣：动量故事</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上基于势头，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME的搜索兴趣在1月底2月初迅速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的利息峰值几乎与价格峰值完全一致，利息下降与价格下降完全一致。同样，在测试45美元左右的50日移动平均线后，其利息反弹跟随价格反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>当您查看AMC的谷歌搜索兴趣时，您还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后随后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是GME 2月份下跌的领先指标，因此该图表可能表明如果无法反弹，可能会出现潜在的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cross-Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交叉分析</b></blockquote></p><p> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.</p><p><blockquote>当你将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互绘制图表时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在测量大量数字（如交易量与兴趣）时存在缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表显示变量具有相关性，尤其是在剧烈波动的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在波动相对较小的时候偏离，但当事情以波动的方式发展时，他们会保持一种关系。在股价上涨后，搜索兴趣和交易量似乎直接引领或下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。考虑一下GME的搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格下跌的，以及AMC的搜索兴趣最近是如何以类似的方式突破其价格的。</blockquote></p><p> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场中的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此对分析最有用。</blockquote></p><p> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.</p><p><blockquote>许多人为推动这一举措提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙述、伽马或轧空，或者股票发行带来的新资本涌入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的价格大幅上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均值并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.</p><p><blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利了结超过50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，在预期大幅下跌的情况下建仓似乎是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.</p><p><blockquote>AMC看跌论点的风险包括新的动能和7日移动平均线上方的持续强势。正如我之前所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果AMC保持在该平均线之上并缩小7日与20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在触及新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在这么短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动量和技术因素就会接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的下行空间。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。然而，AMC看起来与GME 2月份的走势类似，看跌双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion</p><p><blockquote>结论</blockquote></p><p></p><p> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.</p><p><blockquote>在1月份写了一篇关于AMC的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股，认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与GME 2月份上涨和回落的技术相似性。在这样的事件中，催化剂会变得不稳定，评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当股价大幅上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结的时间，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动力作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是鲜明且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更加温和。虽然推动AMC崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更重要，那就是动量故事。根据我们对GME的研究，考虑到20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，7日移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。随着谷歌搜索趋势、交易量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明情况正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。人们应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于站在另一边，现在就考虑相应地建仓。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）发起小仓位或对冲。如果价格走势向下，走势将会剧烈，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里可能是有意义的，而且借贷成本似乎没有那么高，因为做空股票的百分比不是GME的水平，但那里固有的风险更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 09:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li>  <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li>  <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\"><span>BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领头羊后，AMC的举动与游戏驿站一月份的举动类似，表明可能会出现大幅下跌。</li><li>技术面、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于1月下旬GME的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BCFC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性的上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及AMC采取的行动，股价在上个月上涨了约485%。今年，AMC上涨了约763.5%，至每股约55美元，市值为$28.4 B，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景来说是根本性的破坏性。在今年早些时候游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME和其他“reddit”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压中上涨后，AMC再次获得了动力，并以其表现从该集团中脱颖而出。这篇文章将比较GME在2月份惨败中的领导地位与AMC目前的领导地位，并将评估推动这些举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于这种股票价格走势的性质，不断重新考虑你的投资论点并重新评估是什么推动了价格走势是很重要的。在我看来，在这些情况下，技术分析占据了主导地位，我将指出许多因素表明现在可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: CNBC(GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.</p><p><blockquote>想想今年早些时候GME的上涨，当时它在一群动量或“模因”股票中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7日移动平均线，蓝色表示50日移动平均线，绿色表示200日移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破7日移动平均线之后总是会出现两个方向的大幅波动。在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7日移动平均线似乎是价格走势最有用的指标。正如您在图表中看到的，在2月、3月和6月，当GME价格突破7日移动平均线时，随之而来的是大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了一定程度的一致支撑，为走势中的几次反弹提供了一定程度的支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: CNBC [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.</p><p><blockquote>当我看AMC的图表时，它让我想起了2021年2月的GME。上涨迅速而明显（约23天内上涨约350%），类似于GME 2月份的上涨（约21天内上涨约1,525%）。两者都导致短期内7日移动平均线和50日移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从GME的图表中可以看出，在前一周触及约350美元后，它最终测试了约45-50美元附近的50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.<i>This scenario offers ~60% downside.</i>Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.</p><p><blockquote>与GME类似，AMC在此次上涨后也在7日均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果AMC无法突破62.55美元并呈现新的动能，则有双重见顶的风险，向下突破7日均线，并重新测试20美元附近的50日均线。<i>这种情况会带来约60%的负面影响。</i>尽管我通常不会通过观察时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两种走势在时间段方面的相似性，并对GME走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索兴趣：动量故事</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上基于势头，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME的搜索兴趣在1月底2月初迅速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的利息峰值几乎与价格峰值完全一致，利息下降与价格下降完全一致。同样，在测试45美元左右的50日移动平均线后，其利息反弹跟随价格反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>当您查看AMC的谷歌搜索兴趣时，您还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后随后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是GME 2月份下跌的领先指标，因此该图表可能表明如果无法反弹，可能会出现潜在的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cross-Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交叉分析</b></blockquote></p><p> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.</p><p><blockquote>当你将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互绘制图表时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在测量大量数字（如交易量与兴趣）时存在缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表显示变量具有相关性，尤其是在剧烈波动的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在波动相对较小的时候偏离，但当事情以波动的方式发展时，他们会保持一种关系。在股价上涨后，搜索兴趣和交易量似乎直接引领或下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。考虑一下GME的搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格下跌的，以及AMC的搜索兴趣最近是如何以类似的方式突破其价格的。</blockquote></p><p> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场中的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此对分析最有用。</blockquote></p><p> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.</p><p><blockquote>许多人为推动这一举措提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙述、伽马或轧空，或者股票发行带来的新资本涌入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的价格大幅上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均值并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.</p><p><blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利了结超过50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，在预期大幅下跌的情况下建仓似乎是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.</p><p><blockquote>AMC看跌论点的风险包括新的动能和7日移动平均线上方的持续强势。正如我之前所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果AMC保持在该平均线之上并缩小7日与20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在触及新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在这么短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动量和技术因素就会接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的下行空间。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。然而，AMC看起来与GME 2月份的走势类似，看跌双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion</p><p><blockquote>结论</blockquote></p><p></p><p> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.</p><p><blockquote>在1月份写了一篇关于AMC的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股，认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与GME 2月份上涨和回落的技术相似性。在这样的事件中，催化剂会变得不稳定，评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当股价大幅上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结的时间，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动力作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是鲜明且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更加温和。虽然推动AMC崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更重要，那就是动量故事。根据我们对GME的研究，考虑到20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，7日移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。随着谷歌搜索趋势、交易量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明情况正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。人们应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于站在另一边，现在就考虑相应地建仓。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）发起小仓位或对冲。如果价格走势向下，走势将会剧烈，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里可能是有意义的，而且借贷成本似乎没有那么高，因为做空股票的百分比不是GME的水平，但那里固有的风险更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157739738","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.\nImportant short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.\nGiven the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.\n\nBCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nOver the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.\nTechnical Analysis\nSource: CNBC(GameStop)\nConsider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.\nInterestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.\nSource: CNBC [AMC]\nWhen I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.\nSimilarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.This scenario offers ~60% downside.Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.\nGoogle Search Interest: The Momentum Story\nSource: Google Search Trends (GameStop)\nAs these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.\nSource: Google Search Trends [AMC]\nWhen you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.\nCross-Analysis\nWhen you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.\nSource: ValueMan\nWhen considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.\nSource: ValueMan\nAMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.\nWhile this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.\nMany have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.\nI think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.\nRisks\nThe risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.\nConclusion\nAfter writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162417778,"gmtCreate":1624071301694,"gmtModify":1631890127289,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NEVer SELLING","listText":"NEVer SELLING","text":"NEVer SELLING","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162417778","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162417267,"gmtCreate":1624071288959,"gmtModify":1631890127296,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh pls stop Manipulating us","listText":"Oh pls stop Manipulating us","text":"Oh pls stop Manipulating us","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162417267","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162416554,"gmtCreate":1624071132278,"gmtModify":1631890127302,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","listText":"Only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","text":"Only direction is to the moon 🚀🚀🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3595f1f79f3704c07db8e7e2ce4b3b69","width":"1125","height":"2507"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162416554","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187044117,"gmtCreate":1623732315839,"gmtModify":1631890127305,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Missing amc, article not comprehensive","listText":"Missing amc, article not comprehensive","text":"Missing amc, article not comprehensive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187044117","repostId":"1127219232","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187048038,"gmtCreate":1623732095824,"gmtModify":1631892441280,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go go go!","listText":"Go go go!","text":"Go go go!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e9e47978e04a32b3129495b3690f701","width":"1125","height":"2507"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187048038","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185712705,"gmtCreate":1623673216507,"gmtModify":1631892441281,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AMC TO THE MOON","listText":"AMC TO THE MOON","text":"AMC TO THE MOON","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185712705","repostId":"1190645365","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182646545,"gmtCreate":1623571808987,"gmtModify":1631892441287,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TO THE MOON","listText":"TO THE MOON","text":"TO THE MOON","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c321701dac113252dffae5591d0481c0","width":"1125","height":"2344"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182646545","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182373250,"gmtCreate":1623555926170,"gmtModify":1631892441289,"author":{"id":"3577608788016616","authorId":"3577608788016616","name":"Ngxiaoyi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1345e06af3a703384bf1fba0fb4fb630","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577608788016616","idStr":"3577608788016616"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What??&nbsp;","listText":"What??&nbsp;","text":"What??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182373250","repostId":"2142788912","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}