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DavidLeeT

DavidLeeT

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2021-10-05

$天睿祥(TIRX)$这支烂股票就没有人管管么？那么明显的犯罪集团，没人去查这支烂股票？

2021-10-05

$天睿祥(TIRX)$别的股票涨，你扑街。别的股票跌，你更扑街。到底你存在的意义在哪里？

2021-08-12

[微笑]

外资清仓中概股？这些没抛，“木头姐”表态来了

2021-06-25

跟着她走，不会错

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-24

$研控科技(RCON)$杀猪盘就像无底洞，跌不完的。参考TIRX，从95跌到现在六块多还一直在跌。这一支很可能过两个月跌倒两块以下。要买的人还是三思而行吧！

2021-06-21

$研控科技(RCON)$一个研控科技，一个天睿祥。都是杀猪盘的中概股，庄家控盘。散户有多少人上当的？看看如何可以集中一起投诉到美国证监局那边

2021-06-21

$天睿祥(TIRX)$这支股票是一个无底洞，跌起来深不见底，去美国证监局官网举报它吧，就是支圈钱的骗子公司。天睿祥真不是真心搞保险的，它上市也只是借壳上市，太恶心了。真的，千万别买，它只跌不升。

2021-06-20

$AMC院线(AMC)$神股

2021-06-20

$研控科技(RCON)$杀猪盘

2021-06-18

$研控科技(RCON)$很快会跌到3块以下，快跑吧

2021-06-17

$天睿祥(TIRX)$它要掉到什么时候？

2021-06-16

别加了

五年来最重要的一次美联储会议，我们该关注什么？

2021-06-16

这段时间股市已经跌得很惨了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-29

$天睿祥(TIRX)$这家公司让一堆网络骗子，在网上假装和你认识，每天关心你。认识一个多月，骗取你的信任后，告诉你她叔叔是摩根高管，有内幕消息。叫人买股票。因为是通过正规平台买，受害者就认为没有问题。结果在4月12日那天骗受害者95元大量买入以后，再让你把截图发给她，她会和庄家分提成。这几个月搞这么大一个局，受害者至少数百。我受骗就算了，其他人别上当了，这只股票是犯罪分子操纵的，大家千万别买。被骗的人要一起报警，把天睿祥这些畜生绳之以法。

2021-05-04

$天睿祥(TIRX)$我已经向香港警方报案，因为蛊惑散户高价买入的诈骗团队都是用香港号码。也向美国证监局投诉举报天睿祥。就算这点钱拿不回来，至少也要让这家骗子公司倒闭。他们在世界范围内诈骗金额至少数百万美元，不能就这样算了。

2021-04-27

$天睿祥(TIRX)$这个庄要设陷阱，大家要注意了

2021-04-19

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$比特币又开始上涨了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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16:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"外资清仓中概股？这些没抛，“木头姐”表态来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151301033","media":"中国基金报","summary":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AP7TC-M9mt541lnsds9q-w","content":"<div>\n<p>以软银为首的外资暂停投资中国资产的事件还在发酵，不过，不少资管巨头即便减仓，仍然看好中国的长期投资机会，并没有退出持有看好的中国资产，相反，一些外资机构看到转型中的投资机会，加大在特定领域的投资。\n调仓主要出于市场风险\n随着近期资管巨头不断披露二季报持仓，一些大幅度缩减中概股的消息不断浮出水面：资管巨头贝莱德大幅削减阿里巴巴仓位：减持阿里巴巴7402万股，减持幅度高达88.28%，持仓市值从190...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外资清仓中概股？这些没抛，“木头姐”表态来了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外资清仓中概股？这些没抛，“木头姐”表态来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-08-12 16:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>中国基金报</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>以软银为首的外资暂停投资中国资产的事件还在发酵，不过，不少资管巨头即便减仓，仍然看好中国的长期投资机会，并没有退出持有看好的中国资产，相反，一些外资机构看到转型中的投资机会，加大在特定领域的投资。\n调仓主要出于市场风险\n随着近期资管巨头不断披露二季报持仓，一些大幅度缩减中概股的消息不断浮出水面：资管巨头贝莱德大幅削减阿里巴巴仓位：减持阿里巴巴7402万股，减持幅度高达88.28%，持仓市值从190...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151301033","content_text":"以软银为首的外资暂停投资中国资产的事件还在发酵，不过，不少资管巨头即便减仓，仍然看好中国的长期投资机会，并没有退出持有看好的中国资产，相反，一些外资机构看到转型中的投资机会，加大在特定领域的投资。\n调仓主要出于市场风险\n随着近期资管巨头不断披露二季报持仓，一些大幅度缩减中概股的消息不断浮出水面：资管巨头贝莱德大幅削减阿里巴巴仓位：减持阿里巴巴7402万股，减持幅度高达88.28%，持仓市值从190亿美元降至22.29亿美元。\n需要明确的是，这家资管巨头的调仓发生在监管政策出台之前。这种清仓式减持，要么是对监管风险的提前预判，要么是出于对市场趋势研读的过人判断力。实际上，业内人士认为，中国政府倾向于 “反周期”，在宏观环境有所改善的时候会加大监管政策力度。这意味着，机构如果因此提前有所准备并行动迅速，就能避免严重损失。二季度以来，阿里巴巴最多下跌了18%。\n相较于二级市场的波动，政策监管变化对于一级市场和私募股权市场的影响更加深远。被报暂停在中国投资的软银，也表态会在事态明朗化后积极恢复投资。\n据路透社，软银社长孙正义表示，愿景基金有 23% 是投资于中国，但基金并未倚赖特定区域，投资相当均衡。他称中国科技业者正陷于困境但表现良好，股价应该会回升，而随着事态明朗化，将恢复在中国积极投资。\n愿景基金首席财务官 Navneet Govil 表示，虽然监管整顿影响了回报预期，但对中国的整体看法是不变的：中国仍然是一个巨大的、不断增长和引人注目的投资机会。\n减仓派“木头姐”至少持百亿中国资产\n长期赛道选手逢低买入\n美国主动管理科技基金的代表“木头姐”，在其旗舰基金清仓相关中概股持仓，但其余规模稍小的基金中，持有中概股比例并不低。\n截至8月11日，方舟自动化及机器人ETF中仍持有京东、百度、小牛电动和比亚迪，合计持股比率达8.71%；持仓市值近25亿美元（约合160亿元人民币），显示出其对于电商及新能源车的信心。\n\n“木头姐”也表态对中国资产仍持有“开放态度”。在本周二的网络研讨会上，她表示在投资中国资产这一问题上，其关注领域中许多公司多方面包括值等都在下降，可能不会很快恢复，甚至可能会进一步下跌。但她也明确，会在创新领域发现一些非常有趣的公司，所以会对此保持开放的态度。\n更有机构乘机抄底。知名长线科技投资机构柏基投资（Baillie Gifford），在 7 月末港股大幅波动之时，大幅加仓美团，持股比例增至 5.12%。\n目前，哪些领域会受到政府政策影响仍然受到外资高度关注，摩根士丹利就在近期一份研报中列出了包括可能受到影响的领域，包括科技、地产、消费、医疗及碳中和等。\n\n哪些赛道被外资看好？\n随着政府大力监管教培及垄断性的科技巨头，部分外资开始调转在中国的投资方向。许多受到政策鼓励的行业，被外资视为政策调整下涌现出来的新赛道：\n房屋租赁市场：\n今年政府加强了购房限制，大力控制房价，并吸引资金帮助提供出租房，这引起了大量外资机构的兴趣。APG 资产管理公司准备在未来 3 至 5 年内向中国出租房屋投入约12亿美元，这家美国私募股权巨头投资了不少中国的公寓租赁品牌如魔方、自如等。黑石集团和华平投资等海外投资者也正加大投资这一领域。\n外资认为，长期租赁住房是中国的下一个重大机遇，就像 10 年前的物流中心或 5 年前的数据中心。上海、北京等大城市日益增长的人口密度、严格的购房限制以及推迟结婚和生育等因素，将促进对多户型住房长租的需求。\n医疗数字化：\n尽管中国在电子商务、移动支付和外卖等领域已经完全数字化，走在全球前列，但医疗保健却没有迅速更上。中国的医疗保健可能很快就会面临数字化快速增长拐点，“木头姐”旗下的方舟集团看到了该行业的巨大机遇。根据方舟集团本周发布的研究报告，一些公司可能会从此转型中获益匪浅。\n该研报指出，数字化转型可以减轻医院的压力，可以发力的领域包括在线咨询、人工智能辅助的临床诊断系统、数字化医疗应用程序、处方药配送到家以及专业护理平台，数字化转型会使超负荷工作的医生看病更有效率，病人也会得到更好的服务和治疗。\n方舟集团估计，随着数字化转型，中国的在线问诊可能会大幅增加，从2019年占所有医疗就诊的6% 增加到2025年的50% 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19:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"五年来最重要的一次美联储会议，我们该关注什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143465089","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"通胀“爆表”和就业“缓慢”的双重目标背离，鲍威尔面临的是职业生涯最重要、也是最难的一次会议。\n 即将发生什么？\n\n美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）于6月15-16日举行货币政策会议。\n北京时间6月17","content":"<blockquote>\n 通胀“爆表”和就业“缓慢”的双重目标背离，鲍威尔面临的是职业生涯最重要、也是最难的一次会议。\n <b>即将发生什么？</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）于6月15-16日举行货币政策会议。</p>\n<p>北京时间6月17日凌晨2点，美联储FOMC将公布利率决议、政策声明及每季度发布一次的经济预期（SEP）；2点30分，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。</p>\n<p>在史无前例的天量刺激政策下，美国5月通胀率已经高达5%，创出十三年新高；但与此同时，今年迄今的非农就业岗位月均增幅仅46万个，整体新增就业岗位只恢复到去年年底时损失的1/4。</p>\n<p>“爆表”的通胀和“缓慢”的就业双重目标背离，使得美联储陷入两难。美联储会不会在本次会议上宣布缩减QE（taper），及其对待通胀的态度已经成为左右市场的焦点。</p>\n<p><b>为何重要？</b></p>\n<p>美国货币政策和资本市场都已走到一个历史关键节点。随着疫苗接种加快，企业开始从“表面上”恢复常态，货币、财政政策转向的压力徒增，这也为资本市场风险资产带来了定价压力。</p>\n<p>以成功预言1987年10月股灾而一战成名的华尔街传奇交易员保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）坦言，本周FOMC将是“美联储主席鲍威尔职业生涯中最重要的会议，也是过去四、五年来美联储最重要的会议”。 因为美联储的信誉可能因为其“通胀只是暂时的”观点而受到威胁。</p>\n<p>如果联储宣布缩减QE，则预示着其宽松货币政策走上拐点。一旦美联储开始减少资产购买，往往需要几个月时间将资产净购买额逐步下降，而一旦净资产购买额降至零，美联储加息的大门也随之打开。</p>\n<p>目前，面对宏观、政策和资本市场“拐点”，站在风暴漩涡中的美联储自然而然成为市场聚焦的中心，在这样的背景下，议息会议会传达什么信号？</p>\n<p><b>美联储是否会采取行动？</b></p>\n<p>华尔街共识预期认为，美联储不会在本次FOMC决议上采取任何政策行动，预计将维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0%至0.25%不变，维持每月1200亿美元资产购买规模不变，也不太可能在会议声明中提及缩减QE。</p>\n<p>显然，联储官员不想重蹈2013年“taper tantrum”，即释放缩减QE信号后引发市场恐慌，大量抛售美债的覆辙。就像哈佛大学经济学家，上一次“taper tantrum”发生时担任美联储理事的Jeremy Stein所说的，鲍威尔绝对不想像伯南克那样成为“暴风眼”。</p>\n<p><b>那么，本次会议我们该关注什么？1、是否会暗示缩减QE？</b></p>\n<p>根据前一次FOMC会议纪要，一些与会官员指出，如果经济继续取得增长，开始讨论调整购债步伐可能是合适的。</p>\n<p>有部分经济学家认为，类似的讨论可能会从本周开始，但还只停留在初步阶段，缩减每月1200亿美元购债计划的具体细节预计在今年晚些时候公布。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>经济学家们则认为，关于缩减QE的正式讨论将在8月下旬开始，也就是年度杰克逊霍尔央行年会上，并于今年年底或明年年初开始缩减QE。</p>\n<p>因此，本周美联储释放的信号很可能聚焦于“还有很长一段路要走”，并零星发表关于通胀上行风险的担忧。巴克莱经济学家在报告中表示，“预计涉及缩减QE的措辞不会很强烈，但仅仅是开始讨论缩减QE，并表达对于通胀上行的担忧都带有鹰派色彩。”</p>\n<p><b>2、通胀压力是否足以抬升点阵图中值，剑指2023年加息？</b></p>\n<p>5月份，美国CPI同比增长5.0%，超出市场预期的4.7%，创下2008年8月以来最快增速；当月核心CPI同比增长3.8%，超出市场预期的3.5%，创下1992年6月以来最快增速。在疫苗接种加快与前期财政刺激推动下，通胀预期正在加速上行。</p>\n<p>相比于当前的通胀数据，华尔街更关心美联储对2023年通胀率的预测，因为后者才是真正可能促使美联储调整利率预期的触发因素。</p>\n<p>迄今为止，美联储对通胀的表态一直是“通胀的上升是暂时的，是受供应链中断和需求抑制所迫。”</p>\n<p>美联储关注的通胀指标是核心个人消费支出通胀（PCE）。根据上一次发布的点阵图，联储官员预计2022年核心PCE通胀率会达到2%，2023年为2.1%。但包括高盛和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>在内的投行都认为，此次会议上，美联储可能上调今明两年经济和通胀预测。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f26a97d5437ef780d69eff561d750d86\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>有多少通胀会外溢到2023年才是真正的关键，这些通胀压力是否会持续？是否会持续很多年？高盛和美银都认为，如果要推动美联储在2023年加息，只需要3名联储投票委员转变阵营，目前两派势均力敌，但这3人可能不会转变阵营。</p>\n<p>3月份FOMC会议上发布的点阵图显示，对2023年加息的票数是11票反对7票赞成。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>经济学家预计，有几名美联储官员会改变立场转而支持2023年加息。不过美国短期利率策略主管Mark Cabana认为，这些选择“按兵不动”的票数并不会轻易改变阵营，这也是本次会议上的焦点之一。“市场已经将2023年年底前美联储加息2次、2.5次计入价格，但目前美联储并没有任何预期。”</p>\n<p>高盛认为，美联储将在下一轮财政刺激成型之前，在决定调整点阵图方面保持观望态度。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/930d9dab382583abe7c33dc3dfa432d5\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>3、鲍威尔发布会上的表态</b></p>\n<p>即便美联储主席鲍威尔没有在会后发布会主动谈起缩减QE，记者也会问起这个问题。</p>\n<p>Cabana认为，任何关于缩减QE的话题，美联储都还只是开始讨论“讨论缩减QE”，而鲍威尔将重申这一点，即距离缩减QE还有一段时间。未来的任何政策决定都将取决于已实现的经济进展，而不是预期进展。</p>\n<p>对于通胀上升的担忧，鲍威尔可能会坚持供应链因素催生的通胀只是暂时的这一标题，随着供应链瓶颈消退，通胀可能在2022年放缓。</p>\n<p>由于美联储一直对外释放“通胀只是暂时的”信号，所以当下美国10年期和30年期国债收益率表明市场也认为美联储不会因通胀过快上升而缩紧政策。芝加哥大学商学院教授、前美联储理事Randall Kroszner表示，美联储已经让市场相信当前极高的通胀率是暂时的，他们成功了，这也给予他们一段缓冲期，能够以非常缓慢的速度塑造市场对缩减QE的预期。</p>\n<p>不过，高盛认为，让美联储讨论“讨论缩减QE”也还为时过早，即便部分美联储官员希望能开始这一进程，包括美联储理事布雷纳德和纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>在内的核心官员也不那么想。</p>\n<p>高盛在报告中指出，鲍威尔很可能同意布雷纳德和威廉姆斯的观点，即美国劳动力市场复苏得还不够。因此，高盛预计要等到8月或9月才会有缩减QE的第一个暗示信号，随后在12月正式宣布，并于明年年初开始缩减QE。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffaadab9fa84c2044607456aff9ad7f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>4、负利率压力山大，短期利率有必要技术性调整？</b></p>\n<p>本轮美联储开启逆回购是在今年3月，到4月下旬之前始终保持1000亿元以内。但截至6月16日，美联储连续5个交易日逆回购超5000亿美元，创有数据以来新高（注：美联储逆回购主要作用是回笼资金，方向与中国央行公开市场操作的逆回购相反）。</p>\n<p>在过去一年多的时间里，美国政府多轮财政刺激令大量资金涌入美国财政部在美联储的一般账户（TGA），而随着资金从TGA账户流出用以支付各类福利计划，资金也随之进入到货币市场和银行体系，创造出大量短期票据的需求，催生隔夜借贷市场的活跃交易，并推低美国短债利率。</p>\n<p>在投资者看来，当前市场有太多的资金无处可去，如果这样的压力持续下去，那么可能会变成“货币体系空转的问题”。对于美联储来说，这俨然是未来缩减购债规模的前奏。</p>\n<p>因此，有部分市场人士预期美联储将在本次会议上对短期利率进行技术性调整。Cabana预计，由于短期借贷市场压力上升，美联储将小幅上调超额准备金利率（IOER）。</p>\n<p>“关于IOER和隔夜逆回购工具（RRP），我们认为美联储将对这些利率进行微调，比如2到3个bp的幅度。美联储可以借此确保零利率下限的韧性，避免货币市场基金利率跌到负值。”Cabana说，目前银行体系内现金过剩，而银行并不想要那么多现金，所以现金流到了货币市场基金，而当下的市场价格表明货币市场基金也不需要那么多钱。由于短债利率接近于0，市场希冀美联储能在本次会议上做出调整。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n五年来最重要的一次美联储会议，我们该关注什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-06-16 19:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>通胀“爆表”和就业“缓慢”的双重目标背离，鲍威尔面临的是职业生涯最重要、也是最难的一次会议。\n 即将发生什么？\n\n美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）于6月15-16日举行货币政策会议。\n北京时间6月17日凌晨2点，美联储FOMC将公布利率决议、政策声明及每季度发布一次的经济预期（SEP）；2点30分，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。\n在史无前例的天量刺激政策下，美国5月通胀率已经高达5%，创出...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143465089","content_text":"通胀“爆表”和就业“缓慢”的双重目标背离，鲍威尔面临的是职业生涯最重要、也是最难的一次会议。\n 即将发生什么？\n\n美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）于6月15-16日举行货币政策会议。\n北京时间6月17日凌晨2点，美联储FOMC将公布利率决议、政策声明及每季度发布一次的经济预期（SEP）；2点30分，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。\n在史无前例的天量刺激政策下，美国5月通胀率已经高达5%，创出十三年新高；但与此同时，今年迄今的非农就业岗位月均增幅仅46万个，整体新增就业岗位只恢复到去年年底时损失的1/4。\n“爆表”的通胀和“缓慢”的就业双重目标背离，使得美联储陷入两难。美联储会不会在本次会议上宣布缩减QE（taper），及其对待通胀的态度已经成为左右市场的焦点。\n为何重要？\n美国货币政策和资本市场都已走到一个历史关键节点。随着疫苗接种加快，企业开始从“表面上”恢复常态，货币、财政政策转向的压力徒增，这也为资本市场风险资产带来了定价压力。\n以成功预言1987年10月股灾而一战成名的华尔街传奇交易员保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）坦言，本周FOMC将是“美联储主席鲍威尔职业生涯中最重要的会议，也是过去四、五年来美联储最重要的会议”。 因为美联储的信誉可能因为其“通胀只是暂时的”观点而受到威胁。\n如果联储宣布缩减QE，则预示着其宽松货币政策走上拐点。一旦美联储开始减少资产购买，往往需要几个月时间将资产净购买额逐步下降，而一旦净资产购买额降至零，美联储加息的大门也随之打开。\n目前，面对宏观、政策和资本市场“拐点”，站在风暴漩涡中的美联储自然而然成为市场聚焦的中心，在这样的背景下，议息会议会传达什么信号？\n美联储是否会采取行动？\n华尔街共识预期认为，美联储不会在本次FOMC决议上采取任何政策行动，预计将维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0%至0.25%不变，维持每月1200亿美元资产购买规模不变，也不太可能在会议声明中提及缩减QE。\n显然，联储官员不想重蹈2013年“taper tantrum”，即释放缩减QE信号后引发市场恐慌，大量抛售美债的覆辙。就像哈佛大学经济学家，上一次“taper tantrum”发生时担任美联储理事的Jeremy Stein所说的，鲍威尔绝对不想像伯南克那样成为“暴风眼”。\n那么，本次会议我们该关注什么？1、是否会暗示缩减QE？\n根据前一次FOMC会议纪要，一些与会官员指出，如果经济继续取得增长，开始讨论调整购债步伐可能是合适的。\n有部分经济学家认为，类似的讨论可能会从本周开始，但还只停留在初步阶段，缩减每月1200亿美元购债计划的具体细节预计在今年晚些时候公布。高盛经济学家们则认为，关于缩减QE的正式讨论将在8月下旬开始，也就是年度杰克逊霍尔央行年会上，并于今年年底或明年年初开始缩减QE。\n因此，本周美联储释放的信号很可能聚焦于“还有很长一段路要走”，并零星发表关于通胀上行风险的担忧。巴克莱经济学家在报告中表示，“预计涉及缩减QE的措辞不会很强烈，但仅仅是开始讨论缩减QE，并表达对于通胀上行的担忧都带有鹰派色彩。”\n2、通胀压力是否足以抬升点阵图中值，剑指2023年加息？\n5月份，美国CPI同比增长5.0%，超出市场预期的4.7%，创下2008年8月以来最快增速；当月核心CPI同比增长3.8%，超出市场预期的3.5%，创下1992年6月以来最快增速。在疫苗接种加快与前期财政刺激推动下，通胀预期正在加速上行。\n相比于当前的通胀数据，华尔街更关心美联储对2023年通胀率的预测，因为后者才是真正可能促使美联储调整利率预期的触发因素。\n迄今为止，美联储对通胀的表态一直是“通胀的上升是暂时的，是受供应链中断和需求抑制所迫。”\n美联储关注的通胀指标是核心个人消费支出通胀（PCE）。根据上一次发布的点阵图，联储官员预计2022年核心PCE通胀率会达到2%，2023年为2.1%。但包括高盛和美国银行在内的投行都认为，此次会议上，美联储可能上调今明两年经济和通胀预测。\n\n有多少通胀会外溢到2023年才是真正的关键，这些通胀压力是否会持续？是否会持续很多年？高盛和美银都认为，如果要推动美联储在2023年加息，只需要3名联储投票委员转变阵营，目前两派势均力敌，但这3人可能不会转变阵营。\n3月份FOMC会议上发布的点阵图显示，对2023年加息的票数是11票反对7票赞成。摩根大通经济学家预计，有几名美联储官员会改变立场转而支持2023年加息。不过美国短期利率策略主管Mark Cabana认为，这些选择“按兵不动”的票数并不会轻易改变阵营，这也是本次会议上的焦点之一。“市场已经将2023年年底前美联储加息2次、2.5次计入价格，但目前美联储并没有任何预期。”\n高盛认为，美联储将在下一轮财政刺激成型之前，在决定调整点阵图方面保持观望态度。\n\n3、鲍威尔发布会上的表态\n即便美联储主席鲍威尔没有在会后发布会主动谈起缩减QE，记者也会问起这个问题。\nCabana认为，任何关于缩减QE的话题，美联储都还只是开始讨论“讨论缩减QE”，而鲍威尔将重申这一点，即距离缩减QE还有一段时间。未来的任何政策决定都将取决于已实现的经济进展，而不是预期进展。\n对于通胀上升的担忧，鲍威尔可能会坚持供应链因素催生的通胀只是暂时的这一标题，随着供应链瓶颈消退，通胀可能在2022年放缓。\n由于美联储一直对外释放“通胀只是暂时的”信号，所以当下美国10年期和30年期国债收益率表明市场也认为美联储不会因通胀过快上升而缩紧政策。芝加哥大学商学院教授、前美联储理事Randall Kroszner表示，美联储已经让市场相信当前极高的通胀率是暂时的，他们成功了，这也给予他们一段缓冲期，能够以非常缓慢的速度塑造市场对缩减QE的预期。\n不过，高盛认为，让美联储讨论“讨论缩减QE”也还为时过早，即便部分美联储官员希望能开始这一进程，包括美联储理事布雷纳德和纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在内的核心官员也不那么想。\n高盛在报告中指出，鲍威尔很可能同意布雷纳德和威廉姆斯的观点，即美国劳动力市场复苏得还不够。因此，高盛预计要等到8月或9月才会有缩减QE的第一个暗示信号，随后在12月正式宣布，并于明年年初开始缩减QE。\n\n4、负利率压力山大，短期利率有必要技术性调整？\n本轮美联储开启逆回购是在今年3月，到4月下旬之前始终保持1000亿元以内。但截至6月16日，美联储连续5个交易日逆回购超5000亿美元，创有数据以来新高（注：美联储逆回购主要作用是回笼资金，方向与中国央行公开市场操作的逆回购相反）。\n在过去一年多的时间里，美国政府多轮财政刺激令大量资金涌入美国财政部在美联储的一般账户（TGA），而随着资金从TGA账户流出用以支付各类福利计划，资金也随之进入到货币市场和银行体系，创造出大量短期票据的需求，催生隔夜借贷市场的活跃交易，并推低美国短债利率。\n在投资者看来，当前市场有太多的资金无处可去，如果这样的压力持续下去，那么可能会变成“货币体系空转的问题”。对于美联储来说，这俨然是未来缩减购债规模的前奏。\n因此，有部分市场人士预期美联储将在本次会议上对短期利率进行技术性调整。Cabana预计，由于短期借贷市场压力上升，美联储将小幅上调超额准备金利率（IOER）。\n“关于IOER和隔夜逆回购工具（RRP），我们认为美联储将对这些利率进行微调，比如2到3个bp的幅度。美联储可以借此确保零利率下限的韧性，避免货币市场基金利率跌到负值。”Cabana说，目前银行体系内现金过剩，而银行并不想要那么多现金，所以现金流到了货币市场基金，而当下的市场价格表明货币市场基金也不需要那么多钱。由于短债利率接近于0，市场希冀美联储能在本次会议上做出调整。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":169436790,"gmtCreate":1623846743410,"gmtModify":1634027191056,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这段时间股市已经跌得很惨了","listText":"这段时间股市已经跌得很惨了","text":"这段时间股市已经跌得很惨了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169436790","repostId":"1110862709","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3504124500083799","authorId":"3504124500083799","name":"yyyx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eca3700ea505b08e60634ddb7616280","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3504124500083799","authorIdStr":"3504124500083799"},"content":"纳斯达克和标普都在历史高点附近哪里跌惨了啊","text":"纳斯达克和标普都在历史高点附近哪里跌惨了啊","html":"纳斯达克和标普都在历史高点附近哪里跌惨了啊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":137026991,"gmtCreate":1622271805213,"gmtModify":1631888389458,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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16:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"外资清仓中概股？这些没抛，“木头姐”表态来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151301033","media":"中国基金报","summary":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AP7TC-M9mt541lnsds9q-w","content":"<div>\n<p>以软银为首的外资暂停投资中国资产的事件还在发酵，不过，不少资管巨头即便减仓，仍然看好中国的长期投资机会，并没有退出持有看好的中国资产，相反，一些外资机构看到转型中的投资机会，加大在特定领域的投资。\n调仓主要出于市场风险\n随着近期资管巨头不断披露二季报持仓，一些大幅度缩减中概股的消息不断浮出水面：资管巨头贝莱德大幅削减阿里巴巴仓位：减持阿里巴巴7402万股，减持幅度高达88.28%，持仓市值从190...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外资清仓中概股？这些没抛，“木头姐”表态来了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外资清仓中概股？这些没抛，“木头姐”表态来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-08-12 16:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>中国基金报</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>以软银为首的外资暂停投资中国资产的事件还在发酵，不过，不少资管巨头即便减仓，仍然看好中国的长期投资机会，并没有退出持有看好的中国资产，相反，一些外资机构看到转型中的投资机会，加大在特定领域的投资。\n调仓主要出于市场风险\n随着近期资管巨头不断披露二季报持仓，一些大幅度缩减中概股的消息不断浮出水面：资管巨头贝莱德大幅削减阿里巴巴仓位：减持阿里巴巴7402万股，减持幅度高达88.28%，持仓市值从190...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151301033","content_text":"以软银为首的外资暂停投资中国资产的事件还在发酵，不过，不少资管巨头即便减仓，仍然看好中国的长期投资机会，并没有退出持有看好的中国资产，相反，一些外资机构看到转型中的投资机会，加大在特定领域的投资。\n调仓主要出于市场风险\n随着近期资管巨头不断披露二季报持仓，一些大幅度缩减中概股的消息不断浮出水面：资管巨头贝莱德大幅削减阿里巴巴仓位：减持阿里巴巴7402万股，减持幅度高达88.28%，持仓市值从190亿美元降至22.29亿美元。\n需要明确的是，这家资管巨头的调仓发生在监管政策出台之前。这种清仓式减持，要么是对监管风险的提前预判，要么是出于对市场趋势研读的过人判断力。实际上，业内人士认为，中国政府倾向于 “反周期”，在宏观环境有所改善的时候会加大监管政策力度。这意味着，机构如果因此提前有所准备并行动迅速，就能避免严重损失。二季度以来，阿里巴巴最多下跌了18%。\n相较于二级市场的波动，政策监管变化对于一级市场和私募股权市场的影响更加深远。被报暂停在中国投资的软银，也表态会在事态明朗化后积极恢复投资。\n据路透社，软银社长孙正义表示，愿景基金有 23% 是投资于中国，但基金并未倚赖特定区域，投资相当均衡。他称中国科技业者正陷于困境但表现良好，股价应该会回升，而随着事态明朗化，将恢复在中国积极投资。\n愿景基金首席财务官 Navneet Govil 表示，虽然监管整顿影响了回报预期，但对中国的整体看法是不变的：中国仍然是一个巨大的、不断增长和引人注目的投资机会。\n减仓派“木头姐”至少持百亿中国资产\n长期赛道选手逢低买入\n美国主动管理科技基金的代表“木头姐”，在其旗舰基金清仓相关中概股持仓，但其余规模稍小的基金中，持有中概股比例并不低。\n截至8月11日，方舟自动化及机器人ETF中仍持有京东、百度、小牛电动和比亚迪，合计持股比率达8.71%；持仓市值近25亿美元（约合160亿元人民币），显示出其对于电商及新能源车的信心。\n\n“木头姐”也表态对中国资产仍持有“开放态度”。在本周二的网络研讨会上，她表示在投资中国资产这一问题上，其关注领域中许多公司多方面包括值等都在下降，可能不会很快恢复，甚至可能会进一步下跌。但她也明确，会在创新领域发现一些非常有趣的公司，所以会对此保持开放的态度。\n更有机构乘机抄底。知名长线科技投资机构柏基投资（Baillie Gifford），在 7 月末港股大幅波动之时，大幅加仓美团，持股比例增至 5.12%。\n目前，哪些领域会受到政府政策影响仍然受到外资高度关注，摩根士丹利就在近期一份研报中列出了包括可能受到影响的领域，包括科技、地产、消费、医疗及碳中和等。\n\n哪些赛道被外资看好？\n随着政府大力监管教培及垄断性的科技巨头，部分外资开始调转在中国的投资方向。许多受到政策鼓励的行业，被外资视为政策调整下涌现出来的新赛道：\n房屋租赁市场：\n今年政府加强了购房限制，大力控制房价，并吸引资金帮助提供出租房，这引起了大量外资机构的兴趣。APG 资产管理公司准备在未来 3 至 5 年内向中国出租房屋投入约12亿美元，这家美国私募股权巨头投资了不少中国的公寓租赁品牌如魔方、自如等。黑石集团和华平投资等海外投资者也正加大投资这一领域。\n外资认为，长期租赁住房是中国的下一个重大机遇，就像 10 年前的物流中心或 5 年前的数据中心。上海、北京等大城市日益增长的人口密度、严格的购房限制以及推迟结婚和生育等因素，将促进对多户型住房长租的需求。\n医疗数字化：\n尽管中国在电子商务、移动支付和外卖等领域已经完全数字化，走在全球前列，但医疗保健却没有迅速更上。中国的医疗保健可能很快就会面临数字化快速增长拐点，“木头姐”旗下的方舟集团看到了该行业的巨大机遇。根据方舟集团本周发布的研究报告，一些公司可能会从此转型中获益匪浅。\n该研报指出，数字化转型可以减轻医院的压力，可以发力的领域包括在线咨询、人工智能辅助的临床诊断系统、数字化医疗应用程序、处方药配送到家以及专业护理平台，数字化转型会使超负荷工作的医生看病更有效率，病人也会得到更好的服务和治疗。\n方舟集团估计，随着数字化转型，中国的在线问诊可能会大幅增加，从2019年占所有医疗就诊的6% 增加到2025年的50% ，从15亿美元增长为规模达500亿美元的市场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"BIDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121241363,"gmtCreate":1624467546052,"gmtModify":1631888732155,"author":{"id":"3578436425687491","authorId":"3578436425687491","name":"DavidLeeT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/583d6a8bf5cad26a556357b62b26a0c1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578436425687491","authorIdStr":"3578436425687491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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