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Msing

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2021-08-03

Yeah

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2021-07-30

Nice

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2021-07-30

Good

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2021-07-13

Nice

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2021-06-02

Etsy

3 Stocks to Buy to Escape the Dogecoin Doldrums<blockquote>为摆脱狗狗币低迷而买入的3只股票</blockquote>

2021-05-31

Yeah! Great!

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2021-05-15

Ouch

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2021-05-10

Yeah!

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2021-04-27

Great

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2021-04-23

Oh No

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2021-04-18

Yes!!!

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2021-04-17

Oh no

Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote>

2021-04-16

How come?

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2021-04-13

Yeah!

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2021-04-11

Good

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2021-04-08

Yeah

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2021-04-07

Get ready

Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>

2021-04-06

Yeah

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2021-04-04

wow

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2021-04-03

Soon

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

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11:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Buy to Escape the Dogecoin Doldrums<blockquote>为摆脱狗狗币低迷而买入的3只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156329812","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"Cryptocurrencies have crashed in recent weeks. None of them, though, has experienced a more spectacu","content":"<p>Cryptocurrencies have crashed in recent weeks. None of them, though, has experienced a more spectacular dive than<b>Dogecoin</b>(CRYPTO: DOGE). Elon Musk's favorite cryptocurrency is down nearly 50% below its highs set in early May.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，加密货币暴跌。然而，他们中没有人经历过比<b>狗狗币</b>（密码：DOGE）。埃隆·马斯克最喜欢的加密货币比5月初创下的高点下跌了近50%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors might be waiting for a fantastic comeback. Others, however, could be looking for alternatives to park their money in the hopes of better returns. If you're in the latter group, here are three stocks to buy to escape the Dogecoin doldrums.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能正在等待美妙的回归。然而，其他人可能会寻找替代方案来存放资金，希望获得更好的回报。如果您属于后一类，可以购买以下三只股票来摆脱狗狗币的低迷。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy</p><p><blockquote>Etsy</blockquote></p><p> If you're afraid you'll miss the lovable Dogecoin mascot, check out<b>Etsy</b>(NASDAQ: ETSY). You'll be able to find all kinds of Shiba Inu products on the e-commerce platform, including aprons, caps, mugs, and shirts. Scooping up some Etsy shares could make you feel even better over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如果您担心错过可爱的狗狗币吉祥物，请查看<b>Etsy</b>（纳斯达克：ETSY）。你可以在电子商务平台上找到各种柴犬产品，包括围裙、帽子、杯子和衬衫。从长远来看，买入一些Etsy股票可能会让你感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't Etsy more than 30% off its peak this year? Yep. However, the stock still looks likean unstoppable winner despite this big sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>但Etsy今年不是比峰值低了30%以上吗？是的。然而，尽管遭到大幅抛售，该股看起来仍然是不可阻挡的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Sponsored LinksIf You Need to Kill Time on Your Computer, this City-Building Game is a Must-Have. No Install.Forge of Empires - Free Online Game<a href=\"https://trc.taboola.com/nasdaq-nasdaq/log/3/click?pi=%2Finvesting%2F2021%2F06%2F01%2F3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums&amp;ri=d3d9864eae1d5f37311bed7023df82ad&amp;sd=v2_9d0fd2fbd1306eb114a30664b3a2671b_739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5_1622604486_1622605735_CIi3jgYQpexOGNnN2tacLyACKAMwXjiHxgpQ____________AVgAYLcGaMnN7e355PrqbQ&amp;ui=739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5&amp;it=text&amp;ii=~~V1~~7963819353821056689~~i73ZcBKj5avlKD9AMzHGRn8SwDy8THpsXPV7z5v_UUXTxvAnL2wqac4MyzR7uD46gj3kUkbS3FhelBtnsiJV6MhkDZRZzzIqDobN6rWmCPA3hYz5D3PLat6nhIftiT1lwdxwdlxkeV_Mfb3eos_TQZ2aCsfRTCrpH3w_BXgfRXl8g_Y9s0PUb1DSS6IYbNmOcPDrZ6cmbg2V6AesWbmKs3w4fVOyfw9IZbtjpMeFtL7aOS5DgJaEvlkZkO6m1rasWzV-pEzQxc5A-MICQRwgu46zhr_uog6GC70OqLAd6RE&amp;pt=text&amp;li=rbox-t2m&amp;sig=7df137af269bcf2a027be84d71231cd868846ed53e0e&amp;redir=https%3A%2F%2Fom.forgeofempires.com%2Ffoe%2F%3Fref%3Dtab_row_en_mktdet2%26%26external_param%3D2970284978%26pid%3Dnasdaq-nasdaq%26bid%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fcdn.taboola.com%252Flibtrc%252Fstatic%252Fthumbnails%252F7e016667a06c3953bbd551436b1db2b6.jpeg%26tblci%3DGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ%23tblciGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ&amp;vi=1622605735641&amp;p=innogamesforgeofempiressc&amp;r=73&amp;lti=deflated&amp;ppb=CJcG&amp;cpb=EhIyMDIxMDUzMS04LVJFTEVBU0UYASAAKhlzZy50YWJvb2xhc3luZGljYXRpb24uY29tMgl3YXRlcjMxMDc4gPqp8gVAh8YKWP___________wFjCO___________wEQ7___________ARgRZGMI3P__________ARDc__________8BGCRkYwjcChCgEBgWZGMI0gMQ4AYYCGRjCJYUEJwcGBhkYwj3__________8BEPf__________wEYCWRjCMgcEMUnGBlkYwj0FBCeHRgfZA&amp;cta=true\" target=\"_blank\">Play Now</a></p><p><blockquote>赞助链接如果你需要在电脑上消磨时间，这款城市建设游戏是必备的。没有安装。帝国锻造-免费在线游戏<a href=\"https://trc.taboola.com/nasdaq-nasdaq/log/3/click?pi=%2Finvesting%2F2021%2F06%2F01%2F3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums&amp;ri=d3d9864eae1d5f37311bed7023df82ad&amp;sd=v2_9d0fd2fbd1306eb114a30664b3a2671b_739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5_1622604486_1622605735_CIi3jgYQpexOGNnN2tacLyACKAMwXjiHxgpQ____________AVgAYLcGaMnN7e355PrqbQ&amp;ui=739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5&amp;it=text&amp;ii=~~V1~~7963819353821056689~~i73ZcBKj5avlKD9AMzHGRn8SwDy8THpsXPV7z5v_UUXTxvAnL2wqac4MyzR7uD46gj3kUkbS3FhelBtnsiJV6MhkDZRZzzIqDobN6rWmCPA3hYz5D3PLat6nhIftiT1lwdxwdlxkeV_Mfb3eos_TQZ2aCsfRTCrpH3w_BXgfRXl8g_Y9s0PUb1DSS6IYbNmOcPDrZ6cmbg2V6AesWbmKs3w4fVOyfw9IZbtjpMeFtL7aOS5DgJaEvlkZkO6m1rasWzV-pEzQxc5A-MICQRwgu46zhr_uog6GC70OqLAd6RE&amp;pt=text&amp;li=rbox-t2m&amp;sig=7df137af269bcf2a027be84d71231cd868846ed53e0e&amp;redir=https%3A%2F%2Fom.forgeofempires.com%2Ffoe%2F%3Fref%3Dtab_row_en_mktdet2%26%26external_param%3D2970284978%26pid%3Dnasdaq-nasdaq%26bid%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fcdn.taboola.com%252Flibtrc%252Fstatic%252Fthumbnails%252F7e016667a06c3953bbd551436b1db2b6.jpeg%26tblci%3DGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ%23tblciGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ&amp;vi=1622605735641&amp;p=innogamesforgeofempiressc&amp;r=73&lt;i=deflated&amp;ppb=CJcG&amp;cpb=EhIyMDIxMDUzMS04LVJFTEVBU0UYASAAKhlzZy50YWJvb2xhc3luZGljYXRpb24uY29tMgl3YXRlcjMxMDc4gPqp8gVAh8YKWP___________wFjCO___________wEQ7___________ARgRZGMI3P__________ARDc__________8BGCRkYwjcChCgEBgWZGMI0gMQ4AYYCGRjCJYUEJwcGBhkYwj3__________8BEPf__________wEYCWRjCMgcEMUnGBlkYwj0FBCeHRgfZA&amp;cta=true\" target=\"_blank\">立即播放</a></blockquote></p><p> Some investors were worried after Etsy's executives said that the growth rate for gross merchandise sales (GMS) would slow down in the second quarter. It's important to remember, though, that year-over-year comparisons against the second and third quarters of 2020, when Etsy's sales skyrocketed due to the pandemic, were destined to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy高管表示第二季度商品销售总额(GMS)增速将放缓后，一些投资者感到担忧。不过，重要的是要记住，与2020年第二和第三季度的同比比较注定会令人失望，当时Etsy的销售额因疫情而飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy's long-term prospects remain as strong as ever. The company's platform enjoys a competitive moat that's proved unassailable so far. It continues to invest in technological innovations that boost traffic and sales, and it's expanding further into major international markets.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy的长期前景一如既往地强劲。该公司的平台享有竞争护城河，迄今为止已被证明是无懈可击的。它继续投资于技术创新，以提高流量和销售额，并进一步扩展到主要国际市场。</blockquote></p><p> Dogecoin may or may not claw its way back to previous highs. I predict that Etsy will easily do so.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币可能会也可能不会回到之前的高点。我预测Etsy会很容易做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Intuitive Surgical</p><p><blockquote>直观手术</blockquote></p><p> What's more fun than a cryptocurrency that was started as a joke? Robots! I'm not talking about the kind of robots that take over the world. No, I have in mind robots that help people -- like the robotic surgical systems pioneered by<b>Intuitive Surgical</b>(NASDAQ: ISRG).</p><p><blockquote>有什么比作为笑话开始的加密货币更有趣的呢？机器人！我说的不是那种接管世界的机器人。不，我想到的是帮助人们的机器人——就像由<b>直观手术</b>（纳斯达克：ISRG）。</blockquote></p><p> Like Dogecoin, Intuitive Surgical has been a huge winner since its creation. Thehealthcare stockis up close 13,750% over the last couple of decades or so. There's still plenty of room to run, though.</p><p><blockquote>与狗狗币一样，Intuitive Surgical自创建以来一直是巨大的赢家。在过去几十年左右的时间里，医疗保健股上涨了近13,750%。不过，仍然有足够的运行空间。</blockquote></p><p> More than 1.2 million procedures were performed with Intuitive's robotic surgical systems last year. The company estimates that roughly 6 million procedures are done each year for the types of surgery for which its systems already have regulatory clearances. Add to that total another 14 million soft-tissue procedures that Intuitive could target with technological innovations.</p><p><blockquote>去年，Intuitive的机器人手术系统进行了超过120万例手术。该公司估计，每年大约有600万例手术是针对其系统已经获得监管许可的手术类型进行的。除此之外，Intuitive还可以通过技术创新瞄准另外1400万例软组织手术。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, Intuitive Surgical's greatest strength isDogecoin's biggest weakness. The company has an exceptionally strong moat with its huge head start in the market for robotic surgical systems. Dogecoin doesn't have much of a moat at all. Over the next decade and beyond, I think this difference will make Intuitive Surgical the bigger winner by far.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，Intuitive Surgical的最大优势是Dogecoin的最大弱点。该公司拥有异常强大的护城河，在机器人手术系统市场上遥遥领先。狗狗币根本没有太多的护城河。在接下来的十年及以后，我认为这种差异将使Intuitive Surgical成为迄今为止最大的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Mastercard</p><p><blockquote>万事达卡</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fans of Dogecoin might envision a future where the cryptocurrency is used for billions of digital transactions every week. For<b>Mastercard</b>(NYSE: MA), that future is now. In the first quarter of 2021, the company processed 23.8 billion transactions with a gross dollar volume of more than $1.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Dogecoin的粉丝可能会设想未来加密货币每周用于数十亿笔数字交易。为了<b>万事达卡</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA），未来就是现在。2021年第一季度，该公司处理了238亿笔交易，交易总额超过17亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Over the near term, Mastercard should benefit as economies reopen. CEO Michael Miebachnoted in the company's first-quarter conference call, \"We're encouraged by the return of domestic spending levels to pre-pandemic trends.\" International spending levels haven't fully rebounded, but there are reasons to hope that the increased availability of vaccines will make a big impact.</p><p><blockquote>短期内，随着经济重新开放，万事达卡应该会受益。首席执行官Michael Miebach在公司第一季度电话会议中指出，“我们对国内支出水平恢复到大流行前的趋势感到鼓舞。”国际支出水平尚未完全反弹，但有理由希望疫苗供应的增加将产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I like Mastercard's long-term prospects even more. The company should be a clear beneficiary as consumers continue to shift away from cash. Its contactless payment options will likely drive growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>我更喜欢万事达卡的长期前景。随着消费者继续远离现金，该公司应该是明显的受益者。其非接触式支付选项可能会推动未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> If you're still drawn to cryptocurrencies, though, Mastercard has something to offer on that front as well. The company plans to support select cryptocurrencies on its payment network this year. Whether or not Dogecoin is in the group remains to be seen. Even if not, investing in Mastercard should pay off nicely over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果您仍然对加密货币感兴趣，万事达卡在这方面也可以提供一些东西。该公司计划今年在其支付网络上支持精选的加密货币。Dogecoin是否在这个群体中还有待观察。即使没有，从长远来看，投资万事达卡也应该会有不错的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Buy to Escape the Dogecoin Doldrums<blockquote>为摆脱狗狗币低迷而买入的3只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Buy to Escape the Dogecoin Doldrums<blockquote>为摆脱狗狗币低迷而买入的3只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nasdaq</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 11:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Cryptocurrencies have crashed in recent weeks. None of them, though, has experienced a more spectacular dive than<b>Dogecoin</b>(CRYPTO: DOGE). Elon Musk's favorite cryptocurrency is down nearly 50% below its highs set in early May.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，加密货币暴跌。然而，他们中没有人经历过比<b>狗狗币</b>（密码：DOGE）。埃隆·马斯克最喜欢的加密货币比5月初创下的高点下跌了近50%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors might be waiting for a fantastic comeback. Others, however, could be looking for alternatives to park their money in the hopes of better returns. If you're in the latter group, here are three stocks to buy to escape the Dogecoin doldrums.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能正在等待美妙的回归。然而，其他人可能会寻找替代方案来存放资金，希望获得更好的回报。如果您属于后一类，可以购买以下三只股票来摆脱狗狗币的低迷。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy</p><p><blockquote>Etsy</blockquote></p><p> If you're afraid you'll miss the lovable Dogecoin mascot, check out<b>Etsy</b>(NASDAQ: ETSY). You'll be able to find all kinds of Shiba Inu products on the e-commerce platform, including aprons, caps, mugs, and shirts. Scooping up some Etsy shares could make you feel even better over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如果您担心错过可爱的狗狗币吉祥物，请查看<b>Etsy</b>（纳斯达克：ETSY）。你可以在电子商务平台上找到各种柴犬产品，包括围裙、帽子、杯子和衬衫。从长远来看，买入一些Etsy股票可能会让你感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't Etsy more than 30% off its peak this year? Yep. However, the stock still looks likean unstoppable winner despite this big sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>但Etsy今年不是比峰值低了30%以上吗？是的。然而，尽管遭到大幅抛售，该股看起来仍然是不可阻挡的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Sponsored LinksIf You Need to Kill Time on Your Computer, this City-Building Game is a Must-Have. No Install.Forge of Empires - Free Online Game<a href=\"https://trc.taboola.com/nasdaq-nasdaq/log/3/click?pi=%2Finvesting%2F2021%2F06%2F01%2F3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums&amp;ri=d3d9864eae1d5f37311bed7023df82ad&amp;sd=v2_9d0fd2fbd1306eb114a30664b3a2671b_739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5_1622604486_1622605735_CIi3jgYQpexOGNnN2tacLyACKAMwXjiHxgpQ____________AVgAYLcGaMnN7e355PrqbQ&amp;ui=739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5&amp;it=text&amp;ii=~~V1~~7963819353821056689~~i73ZcBKj5avlKD9AMzHGRn8SwDy8THpsXPV7z5v_UUXTxvAnL2wqac4MyzR7uD46gj3kUkbS3FhelBtnsiJV6MhkDZRZzzIqDobN6rWmCPA3hYz5D3PLat6nhIftiT1lwdxwdlxkeV_Mfb3eos_TQZ2aCsfRTCrpH3w_BXgfRXl8g_Y9s0PUb1DSS6IYbNmOcPDrZ6cmbg2V6AesWbmKs3w4fVOyfw9IZbtjpMeFtL7aOS5DgJaEvlkZkO6m1rasWzV-pEzQxc5A-MICQRwgu46zhr_uog6GC70OqLAd6RE&amp;pt=text&amp;li=rbox-t2m&amp;sig=7df137af269bcf2a027be84d71231cd868846ed53e0e&amp;redir=https%3A%2F%2Fom.forgeofempires.com%2Ffoe%2F%3Fref%3Dtab_row_en_mktdet2%26%26external_param%3D2970284978%26pid%3Dnasdaq-nasdaq%26bid%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fcdn.taboola.com%252Flibtrc%252Fstatic%252Fthumbnails%252F7e016667a06c3953bbd551436b1db2b6.jpeg%26tblci%3DGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ%23tblciGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ&amp;vi=1622605735641&amp;p=innogamesforgeofempiressc&amp;r=73&amp;lti=deflated&amp;ppb=CJcG&amp;cpb=EhIyMDIxMDUzMS04LVJFTEVBU0UYASAAKhlzZy50YWJvb2xhc3luZGljYXRpb24uY29tMgl3YXRlcjMxMDc4gPqp8gVAh8YKWP___________wFjCO___________wEQ7___________ARgRZGMI3P__________ARDc__________8BGCRkYwjcChCgEBgWZGMI0gMQ4AYYCGRjCJYUEJwcGBhkYwj3__________8BEPf__________wEYCWRjCMgcEMUnGBlkYwj0FBCeHRgfZA&amp;cta=true\" target=\"_blank\">Play Now</a></p><p><blockquote>赞助链接如果你需要在电脑上消磨时间，这款城市建设游戏是必备的。没有安装。帝国锻造-免费在线游戏<a href=\"https://trc.taboola.com/nasdaq-nasdaq/log/3/click?pi=%2Finvesting%2F2021%2F06%2F01%2F3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums&amp;ri=d3d9864eae1d5f37311bed7023df82ad&amp;sd=v2_9d0fd2fbd1306eb114a30664b3a2671b_739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5_1622604486_1622605735_CIi3jgYQpexOGNnN2tacLyACKAMwXjiHxgpQ____________AVgAYLcGaMnN7e355PrqbQ&amp;ui=739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5&amp;it=text&amp;ii=~~V1~~7963819353821056689~~i73ZcBKj5avlKD9AMzHGRn8SwDy8THpsXPV7z5v_UUXTxvAnL2wqac4MyzR7uD46gj3kUkbS3FhelBtnsiJV6MhkDZRZzzIqDobN6rWmCPA3hYz5D3PLat6nhIftiT1lwdxwdlxkeV_Mfb3eos_TQZ2aCsfRTCrpH3w_BXgfRXl8g_Y9s0PUb1DSS6IYbNmOcPDrZ6cmbg2V6AesWbmKs3w4fVOyfw9IZbtjpMeFtL7aOS5DgJaEvlkZkO6m1rasWzV-pEzQxc5A-MICQRwgu46zhr_uog6GC70OqLAd6RE&amp;pt=text&amp;li=rbox-t2m&amp;sig=7df137af269bcf2a027be84d71231cd868846ed53e0e&amp;redir=https%3A%2F%2Fom.forgeofempires.com%2Ffoe%2F%3Fref%3Dtab_row_en_mktdet2%26%26external_param%3D2970284978%26pid%3Dnasdaq-nasdaq%26bid%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fcdn.taboola.com%252Flibtrc%252Fstatic%252Fthumbnails%252F7e016667a06c3953bbd551436b1db2b6.jpeg%26tblci%3DGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ%23tblciGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ&amp;vi=1622605735641&amp;p=innogamesforgeofempiressc&amp;r=73&lt;i=deflated&amp;ppb=CJcG&amp;cpb=EhIyMDIxMDUzMS04LVJFTEVBU0UYASAAKhlzZy50YWJvb2xhc3luZGljYXRpb24uY29tMgl3YXRlcjMxMDc4gPqp8gVAh8YKWP___________wFjCO___________wEQ7___________ARgRZGMI3P__________ARDc__________8BGCRkYwjcChCgEBgWZGMI0gMQ4AYYCGRjCJYUEJwcGBhkYwj3__________8BEPf__________wEYCWRjCMgcEMUnGBlkYwj0FBCeHRgfZA&amp;cta=true\" target=\"_blank\">立即播放</a></blockquote></p><p> Some investors were worried after Etsy's executives said that the growth rate for gross merchandise sales (GMS) would slow down in the second quarter. It's important to remember, though, that year-over-year comparisons against the second and third quarters of 2020, when Etsy's sales skyrocketed due to the pandemic, were destined to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy高管表示第二季度商品销售总额(GMS)增速将放缓后，一些投资者感到担忧。不过，重要的是要记住，与2020年第二和第三季度的同比比较注定会令人失望，当时Etsy的销售额因疫情而飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy's long-term prospects remain as strong as ever. The company's platform enjoys a competitive moat that's proved unassailable so far. It continues to invest in technological innovations that boost traffic and sales, and it's expanding further into major international markets.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy的长期前景一如既往地强劲。该公司的平台享有竞争护城河，迄今为止已被证明是无懈可击的。它继续投资于技术创新，以提高流量和销售额，并进一步扩展到主要国际市场。</blockquote></p><p> Dogecoin may or may not claw its way back to previous highs. I predict that Etsy will easily do so.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币可能会也可能不会回到之前的高点。我预测Etsy会很容易做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Intuitive Surgical</p><p><blockquote>直观手术</blockquote></p><p> What's more fun than a cryptocurrency that was started as a joke? Robots! I'm not talking about the kind of robots that take over the world. No, I have in mind robots that help people -- like the robotic surgical systems pioneered by<b>Intuitive Surgical</b>(NASDAQ: ISRG).</p><p><blockquote>有什么比作为笑话开始的加密货币更有趣的呢？机器人！我说的不是那种接管世界的机器人。不，我想到的是帮助人们的机器人——就像由<b>直观手术</b>（纳斯达克：ISRG）。</blockquote></p><p> Like Dogecoin, Intuitive Surgical has been a huge winner since its creation. Thehealthcare stockis up close 13,750% over the last couple of decades or so. There's still plenty of room to run, though.</p><p><blockquote>与狗狗币一样，Intuitive Surgical自创建以来一直是巨大的赢家。在过去几十年左右的时间里，医疗保健股上涨了近13,750%。不过，仍然有足够的运行空间。</blockquote></p><p> More than 1.2 million procedures were performed with Intuitive's robotic surgical systems last year. The company estimates that roughly 6 million procedures are done each year for the types of surgery for which its systems already have regulatory clearances. Add to that total another 14 million soft-tissue procedures that Intuitive could target with technological innovations.</p><p><blockquote>去年，Intuitive的机器人手术系统进行了超过120万例手术。该公司估计，每年大约有600万例手术是针对其系统已经获得监管许可的手术类型进行的。除此之外，Intuitive还可以通过技术创新瞄准另外1400万例软组织手术。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, Intuitive Surgical's greatest strength isDogecoin's biggest weakness. The company has an exceptionally strong moat with its huge head start in the market for robotic surgical systems. Dogecoin doesn't have much of a moat at all. Over the next decade and beyond, I think this difference will make Intuitive Surgical the bigger winner by far.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，Intuitive Surgical的最大优势是Dogecoin的最大弱点。该公司拥有异常强大的护城河，在机器人手术系统市场上遥遥领先。狗狗币根本没有太多的护城河。在接下来的十年及以后，我认为这种差异将使Intuitive Surgical成为迄今为止最大的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Mastercard</p><p><blockquote>万事达卡</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fans of Dogecoin might envision a future where the cryptocurrency is used for billions of digital transactions every week. For<b>Mastercard</b>(NYSE: MA), that future is now. In the first quarter of 2021, the company processed 23.8 billion transactions with a gross dollar volume of more than $1.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Dogecoin的粉丝可能会设想未来加密货币每周用于数十亿笔数字交易。为了<b>万事达卡</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA），未来就是现在。2021年第一季度，该公司处理了238亿笔交易，交易总额超过17亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Over the near term, Mastercard should benefit as economies reopen. CEO Michael Miebachnoted in the company's first-quarter conference call, \"We're encouraged by the return of domestic spending levels to pre-pandemic trends.\" International spending levels haven't fully rebounded, but there are reasons to hope that the increased availability of vaccines will make a big impact.</p><p><blockquote>短期内，随着经济重新开放，万事达卡应该会受益。首席执行官Michael Miebach在公司第一季度电话会议中指出，“我们对国内支出水平恢复到大流行前的趋势感到鼓舞。”国际支出水平尚未完全反弹，但有理由希望疫苗供应的增加将产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I like Mastercard's long-term prospects even more. The company should be a clear beneficiary as consumers continue to shift away from cash. Its contactless payment options will likely drive growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>我更喜欢万事达卡的长期前景。随着消费者继续远离现金，该公司应该是明显的受益者。其非接触式支付选项可能会推动未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> If you're still drawn to cryptocurrencies, though, Mastercard has something to offer on that front as well. The company plans to support select cryptocurrencies on its payment network this year. Whether or not Dogecoin is in the group remains to be seen. Even if not, investing in Mastercard should pay off nicely over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果您仍然对加密货币感兴趣，万事达卡在这方面也可以提供一些东西。该公司计划今年在其支付网络上支持精选的加密货币。Dogecoin是否在这个群体中还有待观察。即使没有，从长远来看，投资万事达卡也应该会有不错的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums-2021-06-01\">Nasdaq</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums-2021-06-01","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156329812","content_text":"Cryptocurrencies have crashed in recent weeks. None of them, though, has experienced a more spectacular dive thanDogecoin(CRYPTO: DOGE). Elon Musk's favorite cryptocurrency is down nearly 50% below its highs set in early May.\nSome investors might be waiting for a fantastic comeback. Others, however, could be looking for alternatives to park their money in the hopes of better returns. If you're in the latter group, here are three stocks to buy to escape the Dogecoin doldrums.\nEtsy\nIf you're afraid you'll miss the lovable Dogecoin mascot, check outEtsy(NASDAQ: ETSY). You'll be able to find all kinds of Shiba Inu products on the e-commerce platform, including aprons, caps, mugs, and shirts. Scooping up some Etsy shares could make you feel even better over the long term.\nBut isn't Etsy more than 30% off its peak this year? Yep. However, the stock still looks likean unstoppable winner despite this big sell-off.\nSponsored LinksIf You Need to Kill Time on Your Computer, this City-Building Game is a Must-Have. No Install.Forge of Empires - Free Online GamePlay Now\nSome investors were worried after Etsy's executives said that the growth rate for gross merchandise sales (GMS) would slow down in the second quarter. It's important to remember, though, that year-over-year comparisons against the second and third quarters of 2020, when Etsy's sales skyrocketed due to the pandemic, were destined to disappoint.\nEtsy's long-term prospects remain as strong as ever. The company's platform enjoys a competitive moat that's proved unassailable so far. It continues to invest in technological innovations that boost traffic and sales, and it's expanding further into major international markets.\nDogecoin may or may not claw its way back to previous highs. I predict that Etsy will easily do so.\nIntuitive Surgical\nWhat's more fun than a cryptocurrency that was started as a joke? Robots! I'm not talking about the kind of robots that take over the world. No, I have in mind robots that help people -- like the robotic surgical systems pioneered byIntuitive Surgical(NASDAQ: ISRG).\nLike Dogecoin, Intuitive Surgical has been a huge winner since its creation. Thehealthcare stockis up close 13,750% over the last couple of decades or so. There's still plenty of room to run, though.\nMore than 1.2 million procedures were performed with Intuitive's robotic surgical systems last year. The company estimates that roughly 6 million procedures are done each year for the types of surgery for which its systems already have regulatory clearances. Add to that total another 14 million soft-tissue procedures that Intuitive could target with technological innovations.\nInterestingly, Intuitive Surgical's greatest strength isDogecoin's biggest weakness. The company has an exceptionally strong moat with its huge head start in the market for robotic surgical systems. Dogecoin doesn't have much of a moat at all. Over the next decade and beyond, I think this difference will make Intuitive Surgical the bigger winner by far.\nMastercard\nFans of Dogecoin might envision a future where the cryptocurrency is used for billions of digital transactions every week. ForMastercard(NYSE: MA), that future is now. In the first quarter of 2021, the company processed 23.8 billion transactions with a gross dollar volume of more than $1.7 billion.\nOver the near term, Mastercard should benefit as economies reopen. CEO Michael Miebachnoted in the company's first-quarter conference call, \"We're encouraged by the return of domestic spending levels to pre-pandemic trends.\" International spending levels haven't fully rebounded, but there are reasons to hope that the increased availability of vaccines will make a big impact.\nI like Mastercard's long-term prospects even more. The company should be a clear beneficiary as consumers continue to shift away from cash. Its contactless payment options will likely drive growth for years to come.\nIf you're still drawn to cryptocurrencies, though, Mastercard has something to offer on that front as well. The company plans to support select cryptocurrencies on its payment network this year. Whether or not Dogecoin is in the group remains to be seen. Even if not, investing in Mastercard should pay off nicely over the long run.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110813475,"gmtCreate":1622437403697,"gmtModify":1631885019143,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah! Great!","listText":"Yeah! Great!","text":"Yeah! Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110813475","repostId":"2139438981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196121000,"gmtCreate":1621037603800,"gmtModify":1631885019154,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ouch","listText":"Ouch","text":"Ouch","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196121000","repostId":"2135605911","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190512398,"gmtCreate":1620633395814,"gmtModify":1631885019167,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah!","listText":"Yeah!","text":"Yeah!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190512398","repostId":"1188280108","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377946212,"gmtCreate":1619492259836,"gmtModify":1631885019184,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377946212","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372352582,"gmtCreate":1619181694846,"gmtModify":1631885019194,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh No","listText":"Oh No","text":"Oh No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372352582","repostId":"1141178573","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379135053,"gmtCreate":1618704751572,"gmtModify":1631885019224,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes!!!","listText":"Yes!!!","text":"Yes!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379135053","repostId":"1170156930","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370541592,"gmtCreate":1618615665516,"gmtModify":1634291804150,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370541592","repostId":"1155509413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155509413","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1618587639,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155509413?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 23:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155509413","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories  accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd .Taiwan","content":"<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧持续的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆底座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗组件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆厂（FAB）占全球制造能力的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水资源储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年风暴的缺乏导致供应中断，促使政府开始对100多万企业和居民实行水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于得克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易代码：RNECF）日本工厂因二月地震和三月火灾而受到阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>负责大部分芯片制造设施的台湾三个科学工业园区不得不限制用水量，但迄今为止并未停工。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>表示，在减少对其一个芯片工厂的供应后，替代水源和加速节约将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中和桃园设有设施。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>新竹TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM还试图利用他们建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM估计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为这些芯片的生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月引入了干旱灾害响应机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM的目标是到2030年将单位用水量比2010年的水平减少30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，TSM约占台湾GDP的4.5%，过去五年芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的帮助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM股价持平于118.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-16 23:40</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧持续的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆底座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗组件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆厂（FAB）占全球制造能力的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水资源储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年风暴的缺乏导致供应中断，促使政府开始对100多万企业和居民实行水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于得克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易代码：RNECF）日本工厂因二月地震和三月火灾而受到阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>负责大部分芯片制造设施的台湾三个科学工业园区不得不限制用水量，但迄今为止并未停工。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>表示，在减少对其一个芯片工厂的供应后，替代水源和加速节约将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中和桃园设有设施。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>新竹TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM还试图利用他们建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM估计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为这些芯片的生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月引入了干旱灾害响应机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM的目标是到2030年将单位用水量比2010年的水平减少30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，TSM约占台湾GDP的4.5%，过去五年芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的帮助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM股价持平于118.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","TSM":"台积电"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155509413","content_text":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.\nTaiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (NYSE: TSM).\nTaiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.\nSamsung Electronics Co Ltd (OTC: SSNLF) had to temporarily shut down two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer Renesas Electronics Corp’s (OTC: RNECF) Japanese plant was hampered by the February earthquake and a March fire.\nTaiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.\nAlternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.\nHsinchu-based TSM and United Microelectronics Corp (NYSE: UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.\nTSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.\nHowever, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.\nTaiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.\nThe government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.\nTSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.\nGermany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.\nPrice action: TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370331520,"gmtCreate":1618550398560,"gmtModify":1634292136133,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How come?","listText":"How come?","text":"How come?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370331520","repostId":"1184470866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345983064,"gmtCreate":1618272509658,"gmtModify":1634294062898,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah!","listText":"Yeah!","text":"Yeah!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345983064","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346572638,"gmtCreate":1618096728024,"gmtModify":1634294959780,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346572638","repostId":"2126315033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341561367,"gmtCreate":1617841201259,"gmtModify":1634296239621,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341561367","repostId":"2125726223","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343437311,"gmtCreate":1617748070533,"gmtModify":1634296823645,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get ready","listText":"Get ready","text":"Get ready","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343437311","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343058382,"gmtCreate":1617665706846,"gmtModify":1634297288967,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343058382","repostId":"1123709980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340710323,"gmtCreate":1617488641462,"gmtModify":1634520834016,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340710323","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340611618,"gmtCreate":1617403209934,"gmtModify":1634521136839,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Soon","listText":"Soon","text":"Soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340611618","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":354143097,"gmtCreate":1617153934519,"gmtModify":1634522382444,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cant wait!!&nbsp;","listText":"Cant wait!!&nbsp;","text":"Cant wait!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354143097","repostId":"1162415735","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113663023,"gmtCreate":1622611267662,"gmtModify":1631884338117,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Etsy","listText":"Etsy","text":"Etsy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113663023","repostId":"1156329812","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156329812","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622605755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156329812?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 11:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Buy to Escape the Dogecoin Doldrums<blockquote>为摆脱狗狗币低迷而买入的3只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156329812","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"Cryptocurrencies have crashed in recent weeks. None of them, though, has experienced a more spectacu","content":"<p>Cryptocurrencies have crashed in recent weeks. None of them, though, has experienced a more spectacular dive than<b>Dogecoin</b>(CRYPTO: DOGE). Elon Musk's favorite cryptocurrency is down nearly 50% below its highs set in early May.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，加密货币暴跌。然而，他们中没有人经历过比<b>狗狗币</b>（密码：DOGE）。埃隆·马斯克最喜欢的加密货币比5月初创下的高点下跌了近50%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors might be waiting for a fantastic comeback. Others, however, could be looking for alternatives to park their money in the hopes of better returns. If you're in the latter group, here are three stocks to buy to escape the Dogecoin doldrums.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能正在等待美妙的回归。然而，其他人可能会寻找替代方案来存放资金，希望获得更好的回报。如果您属于后一类，可以购买以下三只股票来摆脱狗狗币的低迷。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy</p><p><blockquote>Etsy</blockquote></p><p> If you're afraid you'll miss the lovable Dogecoin mascot, check out<b>Etsy</b>(NASDAQ: ETSY). You'll be able to find all kinds of Shiba Inu products on the e-commerce platform, including aprons, caps, mugs, and shirts. Scooping up some Etsy shares could make you feel even better over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如果您担心错过可爱的狗狗币吉祥物，请查看<b>Etsy</b>（纳斯达克：ETSY）。你可以在电子商务平台上找到各种柴犬产品，包括围裙、帽子、杯子和衬衫。从长远来看，买入一些Etsy股票可能会让你感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't Etsy more than 30% off its peak this year? Yep. However, the stock still looks likean unstoppable winner despite this big sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>但Etsy今年不是比峰值低了30%以上吗？是的。然而，尽管遭到大幅抛售，该股看起来仍然是不可阻挡的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Sponsored LinksIf You Need to Kill Time on Your Computer, this City-Building Game is a Must-Have. No Install.Forge of Empires - Free Online Game<a href=\"https://trc.taboola.com/nasdaq-nasdaq/log/3/click?pi=%2Finvesting%2F2021%2F06%2F01%2F3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums&amp;ri=d3d9864eae1d5f37311bed7023df82ad&amp;sd=v2_9d0fd2fbd1306eb114a30664b3a2671b_739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5_1622604486_1622605735_CIi3jgYQpexOGNnN2tacLyACKAMwXjiHxgpQ____________AVgAYLcGaMnN7e355PrqbQ&amp;ui=739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5&amp;it=text&amp;ii=~~V1~~7963819353821056689~~i73ZcBKj5avlKD9AMzHGRn8SwDy8THpsXPV7z5v_UUXTxvAnL2wqac4MyzR7uD46gj3kUkbS3FhelBtnsiJV6MhkDZRZzzIqDobN6rWmCPA3hYz5D3PLat6nhIftiT1lwdxwdlxkeV_Mfb3eos_TQZ2aCsfRTCrpH3w_BXgfRXl8g_Y9s0PUb1DSS6IYbNmOcPDrZ6cmbg2V6AesWbmKs3w4fVOyfw9IZbtjpMeFtL7aOS5DgJaEvlkZkO6m1rasWzV-pEzQxc5A-MICQRwgu46zhr_uog6GC70OqLAd6RE&amp;pt=text&amp;li=rbox-t2m&amp;sig=7df137af269bcf2a027be84d71231cd868846ed53e0e&amp;redir=https%3A%2F%2Fom.forgeofempires.com%2Ffoe%2F%3Fref%3Dtab_row_en_mktdet2%26%26external_param%3D2970284978%26pid%3Dnasdaq-nasdaq%26bid%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fcdn.taboola.com%252Flibtrc%252Fstatic%252Fthumbnails%252F7e016667a06c3953bbd551436b1db2b6.jpeg%26tblci%3DGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ%23tblciGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ&amp;vi=1622605735641&amp;p=innogamesforgeofempiressc&amp;r=73&amp;lti=deflated&amp;ppb=CJcG&amp;cpb=EhIyMDIxMDUzMS04LVJFTEVBU0UYASAAKhlzZy50YWJvb2xhc3luZGljYXRpb24uY29tMgl3YXRlcjMxMDc4gPqp8gVAh8YKWP___________wFjCO___________wEQ7___________ARgRZGMI3P__________ARDc__________8BGCRkYwjcChCgEBgWZGMI0gMQ4AYYCGRjCJYUEJwcGBhkYwj3__________8BEPf__________wEYCWRjCMgcEMUnGBlkYwj0FBCeHRgfZA&amp;cta=true\" target=\"_blank\">Play Now</a></p><p><blockquote>赞助链接如果你需要在电脑上消磨时间，这款城市建设游戏是必备的。没有安装。帝国锻造-免费在线游戏<a href=\"https://trc.taboola.com/nasdaq-nasdaq/log/3/click?pi=%2Finvesting%2F2021%2F06%2F01%2F3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums&amp;ri=d3d9864eae1d5f37311bed7023df82ad&amp;sd=v2_9d0fd2fbd1306eb114a30664b3a2671b_739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5_1622604486_1622605735_CIi3jgYQpexOGNnN2tacLyACKAMwXjiHxgpQ____________AVgAYLcGaMnN7e355PrqbQ&amp;ui=739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5&amp;it=text&amp;ii=~~V1~~7963819353821056689~~i73ZcBKj5avlKD9AMzHGRn8SwDy8THpsXPV7z5v_UUXTxvAnL2wqac4MyzR7uD46gj3kUkbS3FhelBtnsiJV6MhkDZRZzzIqDobN6rWmCPA3hYz5D3PLat6nhIftiT1lwdxwdlxkeV_Mfb3eos_TQZ2aCsfRTCrpH3w_BXgfRXl8g_Y9s0PUb1DSS6IYbNmOcPDrZ6cmbg2V6AesWbmKs3w4fVOyfw9IZbtjpMeFtL7aOS5DgJaEvlkZkO6m1rasWzV-pEzQxc5A-MICQRwgu46zhr_uog6GC70OqLAd6RE&amp;pt=text&amp;li=rbox-t2m&amp;sig=7df137af269bcf2a027be84d71231cd868846ed53e0e&amp;redir=https%3A%2F%2Fom.forgeofempires.com%2Ffoe%2F%3Fref%3Dtab_row_en_mktdet2%26%26external_param%3D2970284978%26pid%3Dnasdaq-nasdaq%26bid%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fcdn.taboola.com%252Flibtrc%252Fstatic%252Fthumbnails%252F7e016667a06c3953bbd551436b1db2b6.jpeg%26tblci%3DGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ%23tblciGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ&amp;vi=1622605735641&amp;p=innogamesforgeofempiressc&amp;r=73&lt;i=deflated&amp;ppb=CJcG&amp;cpb=EhIyMDIxMDUzMS04LVJFTEVBU0UYASAAKhlzZy50YWJvb2xhc3luZGljYXRpb24uY29tMgl3YXRlcjMxMDc4gPqp8gVAh8YKWP___________wFjCO___________wEQ7___________ARgRZGMI3P__________ARDc__________8BGCRkYwjcChCgEBgWZGMI0gMQ4AYYCGRjCJYUEJwcGBhkYwj3__________8BEPf__________wEYCWRjCMgcEMUnGBlkYwj0FBCeHRgfZA&amp;cta=true\" target=\"_blank\">立即播放</a></blockquote></p><p> Some investors were worried after Etsy's executives said that the growth rate for gross merchandise sales (GMS) would slow down in the second quarter. It's important to remember, though, that year-over-year comparisons against the second and third quarters of 2020, when Etsy's sales skyrocketed due to the pandemic, were destined to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy高管表示第二季度商品销售总额(GMS)增速将放缓后，一些投资者感到担忧。不过，重要的是要记住，与2020年第二和第三季度的同比比较注定会令人失望，当时Etsy的销售额因疫情而飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy's long-term prospects remain as strong as ever. The company's platform enjoys a competitive moat that's proved unassailable so far. It continues to invest in technological innovations that boost traffic and sales, and it's expanding further into major international markets.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy的长期前景一如既往地强劲。该公司的平台享有竞争护城河，迄今为止已被证明是无懈可击的。它继续投资于技术创新，以提高流量和销售额，并进一步扩展到主要国际市场。</blockquote></p><p> Dogecoin may or may not claw its way back to previous highs. I predict that Etsy will easily do so.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币可能会也可能不会回到之前的高点。我预测Etsy会很容易做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Intuitive Surgical</p><p><blockquote>直观手术</blockquote></p><p> What's more fun than a cryptocurrency that was started as a joke? Robots! I'm not talking about the kind of robots that take over the world. No, I have in mind robots that help people -- like the robotic surgical systems pioneered by<b>Intuitive Surgical</b>(NASDAQ: ISRG).</p><p><blockquote>有什么比作为笑话开始的加密货币更有趣的呢？机器人！我说的不是那种接管世界的机器人。不，我想到的是帮助人们的机器人——就像由<b>直观手术</b>（纳斯达克：ISRG）。</blockquote></p><p> Like Dogecoin, Intuitive Surgical has been a huge winner since its creation. Thehealthcare stockis up close 13,750% over the last couple of decades or so. There's still plenty of room to run, though.</p><p><blockquote>与狗狗币一样，Intuitive Surgical自创建以来一直是巨大的赢家。在过去几十年左右的时间里，医疗保健股上涨了近13,750%。不过，仍然有足够的运行空间。</blockquote></p><p> More than 1.2 million procedures were performed with Intuitive's robotic surgical systems last year. The company estimates that roughly 6 million procedures are done each year for the types of surgery for which its systems already have regulatory clearances. Add to that total another 14 million soft-tissue procedures that Intuitive could target with technological innovations.</p><p><blockquote>去年，Intuitive的机器人手术系统进行了超过120万例手术。该公司估计，每年大约有600万例手术是针对其系统已经获得监管许可的手术类型进行的。除此之外，Intuitive还可以通过技术创新瞄准另外1400万例软组织手术。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, Intuitive Surgical's greatest strength isDogecoin's biggest weakness. The company has an exceptionally strong moat with its huge head start in the market for robotic surgical systems. Dogecoin doesn't have much of a moat at all. Over the next decade and beyond, I think this difference will make Intuitive Surgical the bigger winner by far.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，Intuitive Surgical的最大优势是Dogecoin的最大弱点。该公司拥有异常强大的护城河，在机器人手术系统市场上遥遥领先。狗狗币根本没有太多的护城河。在接下来的十年及以后，我认为这种差异将使Intuitive Surgical成为迄今为止最大的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Mastercard</p><p><blockquote>万事达卡</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fans of Dogecoin might envision a future where the cryptocurrency is used for billions of digital transactions every week. For<b>Mastercard</b>(NYSE: MA), that future is now. In the first quarter of 2021, the company processed 23.8 billion transactions with a gross dollar volume of more than $1.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Dogecoin的粉丝可能会设想未来加密货币每周用于数十亿笔数字交易。为了<b>万事达卡</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA），未来就是现在。2021年第一季度，该公司处理了238亿笔交易，交易总额超过17亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Over the near term, Mastercard should benefit as economies reopen. CEO Michael Miebachnoted in the company's first-quarter conference call, \"We're encouraged by the return of domestic spending levels to pre-pandemic trends.\" International spending levels haven't fully rebounded, but there are reasons to hope that the increased availability of vaccines will make a big impact.</p><p><blockquote>短期内，随着经济重新开放，万事达卡应该会受益。首席执行官Michael Miebach在公司第一季度电话会议中指出，“我们对国内支出水平恢复到大流行前的趋势感到鼓舞。”国际支出水平尚未完全反弹，但有理由希望疫苗供应的增加将产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I like Mastercard's long-term prospects even more. The company should be a clear beneficiary as consumers continue to shift away from cash. Its contactless payment options will likely drive growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>我更喜欢万事达卡的长期前景。随着消费者继续远离现金，该公司应该是明显的受益者。其非接触式支付选项可能会推动未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> If you're still drawn to cryptocurrencies, though, Mastercard has something to offer on that front as well. The company plans to support select cryptocurrencies on its payment network this year. Whether or not Dogecoin is in the group remains to be seen. Even if not, investing in Mastercard should pay off nicely over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果您仍然对加密货币感兴趣，万事达卡在这方面也可以提供一些东西。该公司计划今年在其支付网络上支持精选的加密货币。Dogecoin是否在这个群体中还有待观察。即使没有，从长远来看，投资万事达卡也应该会有不错的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Buy to Escape the Dogecoin Doldrums<blockquote>为摆脱狗狗币低迷而买入的3只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Buy to Escape the Dogecoin Doldrums<blockquote>为摆脱狗狗币低迷而买入的3只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nasdaq</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 11:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Cryptocurrencies have crashed in recent weeks. None of them, though, has experienced a more spectacular dive than<b>Dogecoin</b>(CRYPTO: DOGE). Elon Musk's favorite cryptocurrency is down nearly 50% below its highs set in early May.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，加密货币暴跌。然而，他们中没有人经历过比<b>狗狗币</b>（密码：DOGE）。埃隆·马斯克最喜欢的加密货币比5月初创下的高点下跌了近50%。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors might be waiting for a fantastic comeback. Others, however, could be looking for alternatives to park their money in the hopes of better returns. If you're in the latter group, here are three stocks to buy to escape the Dogecoin doldrums.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能正在等待美妙的回归。然而，其他人可能会寻找替代方案来存放资金，希望获得更好的回报。如果您属于后一类，可以购买以下三只股票来摆脱狗狗币的低迷。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy</p><p><blockquote>Etsy</blockquote></p><p> If you're afraid you'll miss the lovable Dogecoin mascot, check out<b>Etsy</b>(NASDAQ: ETSY). You'll be able to find all kinds of Shiba Inu products on the e-commerce platform, including aprons, caps, mugs, and shirts. Scooping up some Etsy shares could make you feel even better over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如果您担心错过可爱的狗狗币吉祥物，请查看<b>Etsy</b>（纳斯达克：ETSY）。你可以在电子商务平台上找到各种柴犬产品，包括围裙、帽子、杯子和衬衫。从长远来看，买入一些Etsy股票可能会让你感觉更好。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't Etsy more than 30% off its peak this year? Yep. However, the stock still looks likean unstoppable winner despite this big sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>但Etsy今年不是比峰值低了30%以上吗？是的。然而，尽管遭到大幅抛售，该股看起来仍然是不可阻挡的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Sponsored LinksIf You Need to Kill Time on Your Computer, this City-Building Game is a Must-Have. No Install.Forge of Empires - Free Online Game<a href=\"https://trc.taboola.com/nasdaq-nasdaq/log/3/click?pi=%2Finvesting%2F2021%2F06%2F01%2F3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums&amp;ri=d3d9864eae1d5f37311bed7023df82ad&amp;sd=v2_9d0fd2fbd1306eb114a30664b3a2671b_739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5_1622604486_1622605735_CIi3jgYQpexOGNnN2tacLyACKAMwXjiHxgpQ____________AVgAYLcGaMnN7e355PrqbQ&amp;ui=739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5&amp;it=text&amp;ii=~~V1~~7963819353821056689~~i73ZcBKj5avlKD9AMzHGRn8SwDy8THpsXPV7z5v_UUXTxvAnL2wqac4MyzR7uD46gj3kUkbS3FhelBtnsiJV6MhkDZRZzzIqDobN6rWmCPA3hYz5D3PLat6nhIftiT1lwdxwdlxkeV_Mfb3eos_TQZ2aCsfRTCrpH3w_BXgfRXl8g_Y9s0PUb1DSS6IYbNmOcPDrZ6cmbg2V6AesWbmKs3w4fVOyfw9IZbtjpMeFtL7aOS5DgJaEvlkZkO6m1rasWzV-pEzQxc5A-MICQRwgu46zhr_uog6GC70OqLAd6RE&amp;pt=text&amp;li=rbox-t2m&amp;sig=7df137af269bcf2a027be84d71231cd868846ed53e0e&amp;redir=https%3A%2F%2Fom.forgeofempires.com%2Ffoe%2F%3Fref%3Dtab_row_en_mktdet2%26%26external_param%3D2970284978%26pid%3Dnasdaq-nasdaq%26bid%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fcdn.taboola.com%252Flibtrc%252Fstatic%252Fthumbnails%252F7e016667a06c3953bbd551436b1db2b6.jpeg%26tblci%3DGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ%23tblciGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ&amp;vi=1622605735641&amp;p=innogamesforgeofempiressc&amp;r=73&amp;lti=deflated&amp;ppb=CJcG&amp;cpb=EhIyMDIxMDUzMS04LVJFTEVBU0UYASAAKhlzZy50YWJvb2xhc3luZGljYXRpb24uY29tMgl3YXRlcjMxMDc4gPqp8gVAh8YKWP___________wFjCO___________wEQ7___________ARgRZGMI3P__________ARDc__________8BGCRkYwjcChCgEBgWZGMI0gMQ4AYYCGRjCJYUEJwcGBhkYwj3__________8BEPf__________wEYCWRjCMgcEMUnGBlkYwj0FBCeHRgfZA&amp;cta=true\" target=\"_blank\">Play Now</a></p><p><blockquote>赞助链接如果你需要在电脑上消磨时间，这款城市建设游戏是必备的。没有安装。帝国锻造-免费在线游戏<a href=\"https://trc.taboola.com/nasdaq-nasdaq/log/3/click?pi=%2Finvesting%2F2021%2F06%2F01%2F3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums&amp;ri=d3d9864eae1d5f37311bed7023df82ad&amp;sd=v2_9d0fd2fbd1306eb114a30664b3a2671b_739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5_1622604486_1622605735_CIi3jgYQpexOGNnN2tacLyACKAMwXjiHxgpQ____________AVgAYLcGaMnN7e355PrqbQ&amp;ui=739155c7-32f9-4cfc-bd2a-7c945c8cc6a6-tuct6dec6e5&amp;it=text&amp;ii=~~V1~~7963819353821056689~~i73ZcBKj5avlKD9AMzHGRn8SwDy8THpsXPV7z5v_UUXTxvAnL2wqac4MyzR7uD46gj3kUkbS3FhelBtnsiJV6MhkDZRZzzIqDobN6rWmCPA3hYz5D3PLat6nhIftiT1lwdxwdlxkeV_Mfb3eos_TQZ2aCsfRTCrpH3w_BXgfRXl8g_Y9s0PUb1DSS6IYbNmOcPDrZ6cmbg2V6AesWbmKs3w4fVOyfw9IZbtjpMeFtL7aOS5DgJaEvlkZkO6m1rasWzV-pEzQxc5A-MICQRwgu46zhr_uog6GC70OqLAd6RE&amp;pt=text&amp;li=rbox-t2m&amp;sig=7df137af269bcf2a027be84d71231cd868846ed53e0e&amp;redir=https%3A%2F%2Fom.forgeofempires.com%2Ffoe%2F%3Fref%3Dtab_row_en_mktdet2%26%26external_param%3D2970284978%26pid%3Dnasdaq-nasdaq%26bid%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fcdn.taboola.com%252Flibtrc%252Fstatic%252Fthumbnails%252F7e016667a06c3953bbd551436b1db2b6.jpeg%26tblci%3DGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ%23tblciGiAMA8PNIiTHpXwfI80QgUGi9otCulqnNQ0QQHd4vgNlqSDJqD8oxoL5-LqC1Lz_AQ&amp;vi=1622605735641&amp;p=innogamesforgeofempiressc&amp;r=73&lt;i=deflated&amp;ppb=CJcG&amp;cpb=EhIyMDIxMDUzMS04LVJFTEVBU0UYASAAKhlzZy50YWJvb2xhc3luZGljYXRpb24uY29tMgl3YXRlcjMxMDc4gPqp8gVAh8YKWP___________wFjCO___________wEQ7___________ARgRZGMI3P__________ARDc__________8BGCRkYwjcChCgEBgWZGMI0gMQ4AYYCGRjCJYUEJwcGBhkYwj3__________8BEPf__________wEYCWRjCMgcEMUnGBlkYwj0FBCeHRgfZA&amp;cta=true\" target=\"_blank\">立即播放</a></blockquote></p><p> Some investors were worried after Etsy's executives said that the growth rate for gross merchandise sales (GMS) would slow down in the second quarter. It's important to remember, though, that year-over-year comparisons against the second and third quarters of 2020, when Etsy's sales skyrocketed due to the pandemic, were destined to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy高管表示第二季度商品销售总额(GMS)增速将放缓后，一些投资者感到担忧。不过，重要的是要记住，与2020年第二和第三季度的同比比较注定会令人失望，当时Etsy的销售额因疫情而飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Etsy's long-term prospects remain as strong as ever. The company's platform enjoys a competitive moat that's proved unassailable so far. It continues to invest in technological innovations that boost traffic and sales, and it's expanding further into major international markets.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy的长期前景一如既往地强劲。该公司的平台享有竞争护城河，迄今为止已被证明是无懈可击的。它继续投资于技术创新，以提高流量和销售额，并进一步扩展到主要国际市场。</blockquote></p><p> Dogecoin may or may not claw its way back to previous highs. I predict that Etsy will easily do so.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币可能会也可能不会回到之前的高点。我预测Etsy会很容易做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Intuitive Surgical</p><p><blockquote>直观手术</blockquote></p><p> What's more fun than a cryptocurrency that was started as a joke? Robots! I'm not talking about the kind of robots that take over the world. No, I have in mind robots that help people -- like the robotic surgical systems pioneered by<b>Intuitive Surgical</b>(NASDAQ: ISRG).</p><p><blockquote>有什么比作为笑话开始的加密货币更有趣的呢？机器人！我说的不是那种接管世界的机器人。不，我想到的是帮助人们的机器人——就像由<b>直观手术</b>（纳斯达克：ISRG）。</blockquote></p><p> Like Dogecoin, Intuitive Surgical has been a huge winner since its creation. Thehealthcare stockis up close 13,750% over the last couple of decades or so. There's still plenty of room to run, though.</p><p><blockquote>与狗狗币一样，Intuitive Surgical自创建以来一直是巨大的赢家。在过去几十年左右的时间里，医疗保健股上涨了近13,750%。不过，仍然有足够的运行空间。</blockquote></p><p> More than 1.2 million procedures were performed with Intuitive's robotic surgical systems last year. The company estimates that roughly 6 million procedures are done each year for the types of surgery for which its systems already have regulatory clearances. Add to that total another 14 million soft-tissue procedures that Intuitive could target with technological innovations.</p><p><blockquote>去年，Intuitive的机器人手术系统进行了超过120万例手术。该公司估计，每年大约有600万例手术是针对其系统已经获得监管许可的手术类型进行的。除此之外，Intuitive还可以通过技术创新瞄准另外1400万例软组织手术。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, Intuitive Surgical's greatest strength isDogecoin's biggest weakness. The company has an exceptionally strong moat with its huge head start in the market for robotic surgical systems. Dogecoin doesn't have much of a moat at all. Over the next decade and beyond, I think this difference will make Intuitive Surgical the bigger winner by far.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，Intuitive Surgical的最大优势是Dogecoin的最大弱点。该公司拥有异常强大的护城河，在机器人手术系统市场上遥遥领先。狗狗币根本没有太多的护城河。在接下来的十年及以后，我认为这种差异将使Intuitive Surgical成为迄今为止最大的赢家。</blockquote></p><p> Mastercard</p><p><blockquote>万事达卡</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fans of Dogecoin might envision a future where the cryptocurrency is used for billions of digital transactions every week. For<b>Mastercard</b>(NYSE: MA), that future is now. In the first quarter of 2021, the company processed 23.8 billion transactions with a gross dollar volume of more than $1.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Dogecoin的粉丝可能会设想未来加密货币每周用于数十亿笔数字交易。为了<b>万事达卡</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA），未来就是现在。2021年第一季度，该公司处理了238亿笔交易，交易总额超过17亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Over the near term, Mastercard should benefit as economies reopen. CEO Michael Miebachnoted in the company's first-quarter conference call, \"We're encouraged by the return of domestic spending levels to pre-pandemic trends.\" International spending levels haven't fully rebounded, but there are reasons to hope that the increased availability of vaccines will make a big impact.</p><p><blockquote>短期内，随着经济重新开放，万事达卡应该会受益。首席执行官Michael Miebach在公司第一季度电话会议中指出，“我们对国内支出水平恢复到大流行前的趋势感到鼓舞。”国际支出水平尚未完全反弹，但有理由希望疫苗供应的增加将产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I like Mastercard's long-term prospects even more. The company should be a clear beneficiary as consumers continue to shift away from cash. Its contactless payment options will likely drive growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>我更喜欢万事达卡的长期前景。随着消费者继续远离现金，该公司应该是明显的受益者。其非接触式支付选项可能会推动未来几年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> If you're still drawn to cryptocurrencies, though, Mastercard has something to offer on that front as well. The company plans to support select cryptocurrencies on its payment network this year. Whether or not Dogecoin is in the group remains to be seen. Even if not, investing in Mastercard should pay off nicely over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果您仍然对加密货币感兴趣，万事达卡在这方面也可以提供一些东西。该公司计划今年在其支付网络上支持精选的加密货币。Dogecoin是否在这个群体中还有待观察。即使没有，从长远来看，投资万事达卡也应该会有不错的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums-2021-06-01\">Nasdaq</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-stocks-to-buy-to-escape-the-dogecoin-doldrums-2021-06-01","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156329812","content_text":"Cryptocurrencies have crashed in recent weeks. None of them, though, has experienced a more spectacular dive thanDogecoin(CRYPTO: DOGE). Elon Musk's favorite cryptocurrency is down nearly 50% below its highs set in early May.\nSome investors might be waiting for a fantastic comeback. Others, however, could be looking for alternatives to park their money in the hopes of better returns. If you're in the latter group, here are three stocks to buy to escape the Dogecoin doldrums.\nEtsy\nIf you're afraid you'll miss the lovable Dogecoin mascot, check outEtsy(NASDAQ: ETSY). You'll be able to find all kinds of Shiba Inu products on the e-commerce platform, including aprons, caps, mugs, and shirts. Scooping up some Etsy shares could make you feel even better over the long term.\nBut isn't Etsy more than 30% off its peak this year? Yep. However, the stock still looks likean unstoppable winner despite this big sell-off.\nSponsored LinksIf You Need to Kill Time on Your Computer, this City-Building Game is a Must-Have. No Install.Forge of Empires - Free Online GamePlay Now\nSome investors were worried after Etsy's executives said that the growth rate for gross merchandise sales (GMS) would slow down in the second quarter. It's important to remember, though, that year-over-year comparisons against the second and third quarters of 2020, when Etsy's sales skyrocketed due to the pandemic, were destined to disappoint.\nEtsy's long-term prospects remain as strong as ever. The company's platform enjoys a competitive moat that's proved unassailable so far. It continues to invest in technological innovations that boost traffic and sales, and it's expanding further into major international markets.\nDogecoin may or may not claw its way back to previous highs. I predict that Etsy will easily do so.\nIntuitive Surgical\nWhat's more fun than a cryptocurrency that was started as a joke? Robots! I'm not talking about the kind of robots that take over the world. No, I have in mind robots that help people -- like the robotic surgical systems pioneered byIntuitive Surgical(NASDAQ: ISRG).\nLike Dogecoin, Intuitive Surgical has been a huge winner since its creation. Thehealthcare stockis up close 13,750% over the last couple of decades or so. There's still plenty of room to run, though.\nMore than 1.2 million procedures were performed with Intuitive's robotic surgical systems last year. The company estimates that roughly 6 million procedures are done each year for the types of surgery for which its systems already have regulatory clearances. Add to that total another 14 million soft-tissue procedures that Intuitive could target with technological innovations.\nInterestingly, Intuitive Surgical's greatest strength isDogecoin's biggest weakness. The company has an exceptionally strong moat with its huge head start in the market for robotic surgical systems. Dogecoin doesn't have much of a moat at all. Over the next decade and beyond, I think this difference will make Intuitive Surgical the bigger winner by far.\nMastercard\nFans of Dogecoin might envision a future where the cryptocurrency is used for billions of digital transactions every week. ForMastercard(NYSE: MA), that future is now. In the first quarter of 2021, the company processed 23.8 billion transactions with a gross dollar volume of more than $1.7 billion.\nOver the near term, Mastercard should benefit as economies reopen. CEO Michael Miebachnoted in the company's first-quarter conference call, \"We're encouraged by the return of domestic spending levels to pre-pandemic trends.\" International spending levels haven't fully rebounded, but there are reasons to hope that the increased availability of vaccines will make a big impact.\nI like Mastercard's long-term prospects even more. The company should be a clear beneficiary as consumers continue to shift away from cash. Its contactless payment options will likely drive growth for years to come.\nIf you're still drawn to cryptocurrencies, though, Mastercard has something to offer on that front as well. The company plans to support select cryptocurrencies on its payment network this year. Whether or not Dogecoin is in the group remains to be seen. Even if not, investing in Mastercard should pay off nicely over the long 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ready","listText":"Get ready","text":"Get ready","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343437311","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每10年就会引发一次——Archegos可能准时出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能肯定地说，所谓的家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机从来都不完全一样。20世纪80年代末，美国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终获得了约2650亿美元的纳税人救助（按2021年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄国的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运营实践如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘说，当LTCM失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何与他所感受到的恐怖相比的事情”。LTCM被认为“太大而不能倒”，他策划了对14家美国主要金融机构的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构的过度杠杆化，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行再一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人前来救援。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆发，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于外行人来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思：咨询公司安永估计全球约有10,000个家族理财室，但市场研究公司Campden Research的另一项估计称，管理家族理财室的规模接近6万亿美元。鉴于这6万亿美元是基于2019年的数据，现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的基金经理</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这是潜在的危险。家族理财室通常不受监管。1940年《投资顾问法》规定，拥有15名或更少客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元正在发挥作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，它投资于什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大举押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司VIPS，-1.19%，在美国上市的中国家教公司跟谁学GSX，-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。最近股价暴跌，引发Archegos的大量抛售（约300亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道Archegos与华尔街的一些大牌合作，包括瑞士信贷集团AGCS，+1.59%，瑞银集团AGUBS，+1.01%，高盛集团Inc.GS，-1.25%，摩根士丹利MS，-0.28%，德意志银行AGDB，+0.74%，野村控股公司NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但由于家族办公室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说这里真正涉及多少资金以及市场风险有多大？我的同事Mark DeCambre上周报告称，Archegos对不良交易的真实敞口实际上可能接近1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险的危险性</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的用武之地。随着Archegos的赌注落空，上述银行考虑到自己的损失，以保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行迅速抛售了约40亿美元的持股，而高盛和摩根士丹利据说也已平仓，这或许限制了它们的下跌空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎不是。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会还是对Archegos及其创始人Bill Hwang展开了初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>Fundstrat Global Advisors的研究主管Tom Lee是他认识的“十大最佳投资头脑”之一的评级·黄。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012年，黄禹锡的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司(Tiger Asia Management)认罪并支付了超过6000万美元的罚款，此前该公司被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄禹锡代表客户管理资金——实质上是将他踢出对冲基金行业。因此，Hwang开设了Archegos，同样，家族理财室通常不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的关注。她上周表示，需要加强对金融业这些私人角落的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新成立了一个工作组，以帮助各机构更好地“共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯（Abe Lincoln）的话，家族办公室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在一个比以往任何时候都更加交织在一起的全球金融体系中，很大程度上被允许在阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪经营，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的倒闭可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但谁能说其他数千家家族理财室正在用他们的数万亿美元做什么，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359037595,"gmtCreate":1616299694417,"gmtModify":1634526437537,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359037595","repostId":"1103756496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350650818,"gmtCreate":1616204007634,"gmtModify":1634526755117,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350650818","repostId":"1136440314","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345983064,"gmtCreate":1618272509658,"gmtModify":1634294062898,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah!","listText":"Yeah!","text":"Yeah!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345983064","repostId":"1194635432","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340611618,"gmtCreate":1617403209934,"gmtModify":1634521136839,"author":{"id":"3578800657624399","authorId":"3578800657624399","name":"Msing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578800657624399","idStr":"3578800657624399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Soon","listText":"Soon","text":"Soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340611618","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. 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