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SeasonOo

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2021-07-16

U

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2021-07-15

U

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2021-07-13

Y

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2021-07-12

U

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2021-07-08

[Smile]

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2021-07-07

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2021-07-06

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2021-06-15

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2021-06-09

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2021-06-08

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2021-06-06

[Happy]

Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>

2021-06-03

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2021-06-01

Pls like and comment tks

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2021-06-01

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2021-05-31

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2021-05-30

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2021-05-28

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2021-05-26

[Smile]

In 2008, he was CEO of the biggest bank to ever fail. He's worried about another crisis<blockquote>2008年，他是有史以来倒闭的最大银行的首席执行官。他担心另一场危机</blockquote>

2021-05-25

[Smile]

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2021-05-24

[微笑]

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11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2,000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并可能导致ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2,000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并可能导致ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData 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11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"In 2008, he was CEO of the biggest bank to ever fail. He's worried about another crisis<blockquote>2008年，他是有史以来倒闭的最大银行的首席执行官。他担心另一场危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129186705","media":"cnn","summary":"New York The banking world nearly caved in 13 years ago. The former CEO of Washington Mutual is worried that another bubble is brewing.Kerry Killinger was named CEO of WaMu in 1990 and was fired in September 2008 -- just weeks before the bank failed as a growing number of mortgage loans went bad.\"Regulated banks do have more concentrated market share now so they have to be more careful,\" Killinger said. \"But the health of the industry is great, earnings are good and oversight is strong. I'm not ","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)The banking world nearly caved in 13 years ago. The former CEO of Washington Mutual is worried that another bubble is brewing.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）13年前，银行界几乎崩溃了。华盛顿互惠银行的前首席执行官担心另一个泡沫正在酝酿。</blockquote></p><p> Kerry Killinger was named CEO of WaMu in 1990 and was fired in September 2008 -- just weeks before the bank failed as a growing number of mortgage loans went bad.</p><p><blockquote>克里·基林格(Kerry Killinger)于1990年被任命为WaMu首席执行官，并于2008年9月被解雇——就在该银行因越来越多的抵押贷款出现不良而倒闭的几周前。</blockquote></p><p> WaMu was one of several top financial firms to collapse during the financial crisis last decade, but the giant savings and loan with more than $300 billion in assets still ranks as the biggest-ever bank failure. WaMu was seized by regulators in September 2008 and sold to JPMorgan Chase (JPM) for a fire-sale price of $1.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>WaMu是过去十年金融危机期间倒闭的几家顶级金融公司之一，但这家资产超过3000亿美元的储蓄和贷款巨头仍然是有史以来最大的银行倒闭事件。WaMu于2008年9月被监管机构查封，并以19亿美元的贱卖价格出售给摩根大通(JPM)。</blockquote></p><p> Killinger spoke to CNN Business about the similarities and differences between now and 13 years ago.</p><p><blockquote>Killinger向CNN Business讲述了现在与13年前的异同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The good news</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好消息是</b></blockquote></p><p> The Global Financial Crisis led to a wave of new federal rules that were designed to strengthen the balance sheets of top banks and ensure that another catastrophe like 2008 could never happen again.</p><p><blockquote>全球金融危机导致了一波新的联邦规则，旨在加强顶级银行的资产负债表，并确保类似2008年的灾难永远不会再次发生。</blockquote></p><p> The good news is that Killinger thinks JPMorgan Chase and other \"too big to fail banks\" are in much better shape now after laws like Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule were put into place in the wake of the financial crisis to make big banks safer.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，基林格认为，在金融危机后实施多德弗兰克法案和沃尔克规则等法律以使大银行更加安全之后，摩根大通和其他“太大而不能倒的银行”现在的状况要好得多。</blockquote></p><p> That group of institutions also includes Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), as well as others that received government bailouts in 2008.</p><p><blockquote>这组机构还包括美国银行(BAC)、花旗集团(C)、富国银行(WFC)、高盛(GS)和摩根士丹利(MS)，以及其他在2008年接受政府救助的机构。</blockquote></p><p> \"Regulated banks do have more concentrated market share now so they have to be more careful,\" Killinger said. \"But the health of the industry is great, earnings are good and oversight is strong. I'm not too concerned there.\"</p><p><blockquote>“受监管的银行现在确实拥有更加集中的市场份额，因此他们必须更加小心，”基林格说。“但该行业的健康状况良好，盈利良好，监管也很有力。我对此并不太担心。”</blockquote></p><p> Subprime lending, the practice of giving mortgages to people with less-than-worthy credit histories, isn't nearly as prevalent as it was during the last housing boom. But Killinger is worried about bubbles in many other parts of the economy that threaten the stability of the markets.</p><p><blockquote>次级贷款，即向信用记录不佳的人提供抵押贷款的做法，已经不像上次房地产繁荣时期那样普遍了。但基林格担心许多其他经济领域的泡沫会威胁到市场的稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Too big to fail 2.0?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大到不能倒2.0？</b></blockquote></p><p> Although housing prices have surged again, Killinger is more nervous about the fact that 0% interest rates and big bond purchases by the Federal Reserve have sparked a broader mania in other assets, including cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), meme stocks, blank check SPAC mergers and exotic exchange-traded funds.</p><p><blockquote>尽管房价再次飙升，但Killinger更紧张的是，0%的利率和美联储的大规模债券购买引发了其他资产更广泛的狂热，包括加密货币和不可替代代币（NFT）、模因股票、空白支票SPAC合并和异国情调的交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bubbles today are broader and deeper in a variety of categories, not just housing,\" Killinger said. \"The Fed's policy of low rates and massive asset purchases worked well to get out of the downturn, but when you keep extending it you can cause unintended consequences.\"</p><p><blockquote>基林格说：“如今的泡沫在各个类别中都更广泛、更深，而不仅仅是房地产。”“美联储的低利率和大规模资产购买政策很好地摆脱了经济低迷，但当你继续延长政策时，可能会造成意想不到的后果。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy continues to improve. It's time for the Fed to pull in the reins on stimulus and allow interest rates to rise,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“经济继续改善。美联储是时候收紧刺激政策并允许利率上升了，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Killinger and his wife Linda, a former vice chair of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines, have written a book about the 2008 meltdown called \"Nothing Is Too Big to Fail: How the Last Financial Crisis Informs Today.\"</p><p><blockquote>基林格和他的妻子琳达（得梅因联邦住房贷款银行前副主席）写了一本关于2008年金融危机的书，名为《没有什么大到不能倒：上次金融危机对今天的影响》。</blockquote></p><p> Linda Killinger told CNN Business she's concerned about the rise of of financial tech companies, hedge funds. private equity firms and other so-called shadow banks that face little to no regulation in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>琳达·基林格(Linda Killinger)告诉CNN Business，她对金融科技公司和对冲基金的崛起感到担忧。私人股本公司和其他所谓的影子银行在华盛顿几乎没有受到监管。</blockquote></p><p> \"The non-bank system is a big part of the problem. And there are still a lot of loans being done by non-regulated banks such as online banks and many private companies,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>“非银行系统是问题的一个重要部分。而且仍然有很多贷款是由不受监管的银行如网上银行和许多私营公司提供的，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Large financial firms may be embracing too much risk again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大型金融公司可能再次承担过多风险</b></blockquote></p><p> At least one prominent senator is worried, like the Killingers are, that some financial firms are once again getting too unwieldy.</p><p><blockquote>至少有一位著名的参议员担心，就像杀手一样，一些金融公司再次变得过于笨重。</blockquote></p><p> Elizabeth Warren questioned Treasury secretary Janet Yellen earlier this year about why BlackRock (BLK), the iShares ETF giant that manages more than $9 trillion in assets but is not a bank, is not considered \"too big to fail.\"</p><p><blockquote>伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)今年早些时候向财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)询问，为什么管理着超过9万亿美元资产但不是银行的iShares ETF巨头贝莱德(BLK)不被认为是“大到不能倒”。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has already gotten a brief taste of how risky some of these firms are when Archegos Capital Management, a family office with big positions in media giants ViacomCBS (VIACA) and Discovery (DISCA) and Chinese techs Baidu (BIDU) and Tencent Music (TME), imploded and caused billions of dollars in losses for banks. (AT&amp;T (T) is planning to merge its WarnerMedia unit, CNN's parent company, with Discovery.)</p><p><blockquote>Archegos Capital Management是一家家族办公室，在媒体巨头维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司(VIACA)和Discovery(DISCA)以及中国科技公司百度(BIDU)和腾讯控股音乐中持有大量头寸，华尔街已经初步了解了其中一些公司的风险有多大。(TME)崩溃并给银行造成数十亿美元的损失。（AT&amp;T(T)正计划将其CNN母公司WarnerMedia部门与Discovery合并。）</blockquote></p><p> For its part, the Fed has acknowledged some of the growing risks to the markets and economy from keeping rates lower for longer and continuing to provide crisis-level stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>就美联储而言，它承认，长期保持低利率并继续提供危机级别的刺激措施给市场和经济带来了一些日益增长的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In the minutes of its latest policy meeting, the central bank acknowledged that \"if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee's goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.\"</p><p><blockquote>在最新的政策会议纪要中，央行承认，“如果经济继续朝着委员会的目标取得快速进展，那么在即将举行的会议中的某个时候开始讨论调整资产购买步伐的计划可能是合适的。”</blockquote></p><p> But Kerry Killinger thinks the Fed has to do a better job of stress-testing big banks for their exposure to some of the types of assets that have been surging in the past year to make sure that they can withstand even more volatility.</p><p><blockquote>但克里·基林格认为，美联储必须更好地对大银行对过去一年飙升的某些类型资产的敞口进行压力测试，以确保它们能够承受更大的波动。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"The Fed made the mistake of underestimating subprime in the last crisis,\" he said, referring to the now infamous comments from then Fed chair Ben Bernanke in May 2007 that \"the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储在上次危机中犯了低估次贷的错误，”他说，指的是时任美联储主席本·伯南克在2007年5月发表的臭名昭著的言论，即“次贷行业的麻烦对更广泛的房地产市场的影响可能是有限的。”</blockquote></p><p> \"There are growing asset bubbles,\" Kerry Killinger said. \"The Fed needs to test more how firms would perform if these asset prices decline further. If there is a major correction, the impact could be dramatic.\"</p><p><blockquote>“资产泡沫越来越大，”克里·基林格说。“美联储需要更多地测试如果这些资产价格进一步下跌，企业将如何表现。如果出现重大调整，影响可能是巨大的。”</blockquote></p><p> The heads of big banks will also get their chance to talk about their views on the economy later this week. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Wednesday and the House Financial Services Committee has one scheduled for Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>本周晚些时候，大银行的负责人也将有机会谈论他们对经济的看法。参议院银行委员会将于周三举行听证会，众议院金融服务委员会定于周四举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will appear at both hearings, as will new Citgroup CEO Jane Fraser, BofA's Brian Moynihan, Wells Fargo's Charles Scharf, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley's James Gorman.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙将出席这两场听证会，花旗集团新任首席执行官简·弗雷泽、美国银行的布莱恩·莫伊尼汉、富国银行的查尔斯·沙夫、高盛首席执行官大卫·所罗门和摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·戈尔曼也将出席。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In 2008, he was CEO of the biggest bank to ever fail. He's worried about another crisis<blockquote>2008年，他是有史以来倒闭的最大银行的首席执行官。他担心另一场危机</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn 2008, he was CEO of the biggest bank to ever fail. He's worried about another crisis<blockquote>2008年，他是有史以来倒闭的最大银行的首席执行官。他担心另一场危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)The banking world nearly caved in 13 years ago. The former CEO of Washington Mutual is worried that another bubble is brewing.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）13年前，银行界几乎崩溃了。华盛顿互惠银行的前首席执行官担心另一个泡沫正在酝酿。</blockquote></p><p> Kerry Killinger was named CEO of WaMu in 1990 and was fired in September 2008 -- just weeks before the bank failed as a growing number of mortgage loans went bad.</p><p><blockquote>克里·基林格(Kerry Killinger)于1990年被任命为WaMu首席执行官，并于2008年9月被解雇——就在该银行因越来越多的抵押贷款出现不良而倒闭的几周前。</blockquote></p><p> WaMu was one of several top financial firms to collapse during the financial crisis last decade, but the giant savings and loan with more than $300 billion in assets still ranks as the biggest-ever bank failure. WaMu was seized by regulators in September 2008 and sold to JPMorgan Chase (JPM) for a fire-sale price of $1.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>WaMu是过去十年金融危机期间倒闭的几家顶级金融公司之一，但这家资产超过3000亿美元的储蓄和贷款巨头仍然是有史以来最大的银行倒闭事件。WaMu于2008年9月被监管机构查封，并以19亿美元的贱卖价格出售给摩根大通(JPM)。</blockquote></p><p> Killinger spoke to CNN Business about the similarities and differences between now and 13 years ago.</p><p><blockquote>Killinger向CNN Business讲述了现在与13年前的异同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The good news</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好消息是</b></blockquote></p><p> The Global Financial Crisis led to a wave of new federal rules that were designed to strengthen the balance sheets of top banks and ensure that another catastrophe like 2008 could never happen again.</p><p><blockquote>全球金融危机导致了一波新的联邦规则，旨在加强顶级银行的资产负债表，并确保类似2008年的灾难永远不会再次发生。</blockquote></p><p> The good news is that Killinger thinks JPMorgan Chase and other \"too big to fail banks\" are in much better shape now after laws like Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule were put into place in the wake of the financial crisis to make big banks safer.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，基林格认为，在金融危机后实施多德弗兰克法案和沃尔克规则等法律以使大银行更加安全之后，摩根大通和其他“太大而不能倒的银行”现在的状况要好得多。</blockquote></p><p> That group of institutions also includes Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), as well as others that received government bailouts in 2008.</p><p><blockquote>这组机构还包括美国银行(BAC)、花旗集团(C)、富国银行(WFC)、高盛(GS)和摩根士丹利(MS)，以及其他在2008年接受政府救助的机构。</blockquote></p><p> \"Regulated banks do have more concentrated market share now so they have to be more careful,\" Killinger said. \"But the health of the industry is great, earnings are good and oversight is strong. I'm not too concerned there.\"</p><p><blockquote>“受监管的银行现在确实拥有更加集中的市场份额，因此他们必须更加小心，”基林格说。“但该行业的健康状况良好，盈利良好，监管也很有力。我对此并不太担心。”</blockquote></p><p> Subprime lending, the practice of giving mortgages to people with less-than-worthy credit histories, isn't nearly as prevalent as it was during the last housing boom. But Killinger is worried about bubbles in many other parts of the economy that threaten the stability of the markets.</p><p><blockquote>次级贷款，即向信用记录不佳的人提供抵押贷款的做法，已经不像上次房地产繁荣时期那样普遍了。但基林格担心许多其他经济领域的泡沫会威胁到市场的稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Too big to fail 2.0?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大到不能倒2.0？</b></blockquote></p><p> Although housing prices have surged again, Killinger is more nervous about the fact that 0% interest rates and big bond purchases by the Federal Reserve have sparked a broader mania in other assets, including cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), meme stocks, blank check SPAC mergers and exotic exchange-traded funds.</p><p><blockquote>尽管房价再次飙升，但Killinger更紧张的是，0%的利率和美联储的大规模债券购买引发了其他资产更广泛的狂热，包括加密货币和不可替代代币（NFT）、模因股票、空白支票SPAC合并和异国情调的交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bubbles today are broader and deeper in a variety of categories, not just housing,\" Killinger said. \"The Fed's policy of low rates and massive asset purchases worked well to get out of the downturn, but when you keep extending it you can cause unintended consequences.\"</p><p><blockquote>基林格说：“如今的泡沫在各个类别中都更广泛、更深，而不仅仅是房地产。”“美联储的低利率和大规模资产购买政策很好地摆脱了经济低迷，但当你继续延长政策时，可能会造成意想不到的后果。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy continues to improve. It's time for the Fed to pull in the reins on stimulus and allow interest rates to rise,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“经济继续改善。美联储是时候收紧刺激政策并允许利率上升了，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Killinger and his wife Linda, a former vice chair of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines, have written a book about the 2008 meltdown called \"Nothing Is Too Big to Fail: How the Last Financial Crisis Informs Today.\"</p><p><blockquote>基林格和他的妻子琳达（得梅因联邦住房贷款银行前副主席）写了一本关于2008年金融危机的书，名为《没有什么大到不能倒：上次金融危机对今天的影响》。</blockquote></p><p> Linda Killinger told CNN Business she's concerned about the rise of of financial tech companies, hedge funds. private equity firms and other so-called shadow banks that face little to no regulation in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>琳达·基林格(Linda Killinger)告诉CNN Business，她对金融科技公司和对冲基金的崛起感到担忧。私人股本公司和其他所谓的影子银行在华盛顿几乎没有受到监管。</blockquote></p><p> \"The non-bank system is a big part of the problem. And there are still a lot of loans being done by non-regulated banks such as online banks and many private companies,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>“非银行系统是问题的一个重要部分。而且仍然有很多贷款是由不受监管的银行如网上银行和许多私营公司提供的，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Large financial firms may be embracing too much risk again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大型金融公司可能再次承担过多风险</b></blockquote></p><p> At least one prominent senator is worried, like the Killingers are, that some financial firms are once again getting too unwieldy.</p><p><blockquote>至少有一位著名的参议员担心，就像杀手一样，一些金融公司再次变得过于笨重。</blockquote></p><p> Elizabeth Warren questioned Treasury secretary Janet Yellen earlier this year about why BlackRock (BLK), the iShares ETF giant that manages more than $9 trillion in assets but is not a bank, is not considered \"too big to fail.\"</p><p><blockquote>伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)今年早些时候向财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)询问，为什么管理着超过9万亿美元资产但不是银行的iShares ETF巨头贝莱德(BLK)不被认为是“大到不能倒”。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has already gotten a brief taste of how risky some of these firms are when Archegos Capital Management, a family office with big positions in media giants ViacomCBS (VIACA) and Discovery (DISCA) and Chinese techs Baidu (BIDU) and Tencent Music (TME), imploded and caused billions of dollars in losses for banks. (AT&amp;T (T) is planning to merge its WarnerMedia unit, CNN's parent company, with Discovery.)</p><p><blockquote>Archegos Capital Management是一家家族办公室，在媒体巨头维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司(VIACA)和Discovery(DISCA)以及中国科技公司百度(BIDU)和腾讯控股音乐中持有大量头寸，华尔街已经初步了解了其中一些公司的风险有多大。(TME)崩溃并给银行造成数十亿美元的损失。（AT&amp;T(T)正计划将其CNN母公司WarnerMedia部门与Discovery合并。）</blockquote></p><p> For its part, the Fed has acknowledged some of the growing risks to the markets and economy from keeping rates lower for longer and continuing to provide crisis-level stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>就美联储而言，它承认，长期保持低利率并继续提供危机级别的刺激措施给市场和经济带来了一些日益增长的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In the minutes of its latest policy meeting, the central bank acknowledged that \"if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee's goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.\"</p><p><blockquote>在最新的政策会议纪要中，央行承认，“如果经济继续朝着委员会的目标取得快速进展，那么在即将举行的会议中的某个时候开始讨论调整资产购买步伐的计划可能是合适的。”</blockquote></p><p> But Kerry Killinger thinks the Fed has to do a better job of stress-testing big banks for their exposure to some of the types of assets that have been surging in the past year to make sure that they can withstand even more volatility.</p><p><blockquote>但克里·基林格认为，美联储必须更好地对大银行对过去一年飙升的某些类型资产的敞口进行压力测试，以确保它们能够承受更大的波动。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"The Fed made the mistake of underestimating subprime in the last crisis,\" he said, referring to the now infamous comments from then Fed chair Ben Bernanke in May 2007 that \"the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储在上次危机中犯了低估次贷的错误，”他说，指的是时任美联储主席本·伯南克在2007年5月发表的臭名昭著的言论，即“次贷行业的麻烦对更广泛的房地产市场的影响可能是有限的。”</blockquote></p><p> \"There are growing asset bubbles,\" Kerry Killinger said. \"The Fed needs to test more how firms would perform if these asset prices decline further. If there is a major correction, the impact could be dramatic.\"</p><p><blockquote>“资产泡沫越来越大，”克里·基林格说。“美联储需要更多地测试如果这些资产价格进一步下跌，企业将如何表现。如果出现重大调整，影响可能是巨大的。”</blockquote></p><p> The heads of big banks will also get their chance to talk about their views on the economy later this week. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Wednesday and the House Financial Services Committee has one scheduled for Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>本周晚些时候，大银行的负责人也将有机会谈论他们对经济的看法。参议院银行委员会将于周三举行听证会，众议院金融服务委员会定于周四举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will appear at both hearings, as will new Citgroup CEO Jane Fraser, BofA's Brian Moynihan, Wells Fargo's Charles Scharf, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley's James Gorman.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙将出席这两场听证会，花旗集团新任首席执行官简·弗雷泽、美国银行的布莱恩·莫伊尼汉、富国银行的查尔斯·沙夫、高盛首席执行官大卫·所罗门和摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·戈尔曼也将出席。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/25/investing/washington-mutual-kerry-killinger-banks/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/25/investing/washington-mutual-kerry-killinger-banks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129186705","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)The banking world nearly caved in 13 years ago. The former CEO of Washington Mutual is worried that another bubble is brewing.\nKerry Killinger was named CEO of WaMu in 1990 and was fired in September 2008 -- just weeks before the bank failed as a growing number of mortgage loans went bad.\nWaMu was one of several top financial firms to collapse during the financial crisis last decade, but the giant savings and loan with more than $300 billion in assets still ranks as the biggest-ever bank failure. WaMu was seized by regulators in September 2008 and sold to JPMorgan Chase (JPM) for a fire-sale price of $1.9 billion.\nKillinger spoke to CNN Business about the similarities and differences between now and 13 years ago.\nThe good news\nThe Global Financial Crisis led to a wave of new federal rules that were designed to strengthen the balance sheets of top banks and ensure that another catastrophe like 2008 could never happen again.\nThe good news is that Killinger thinks JPMorgan Chase and other \"too big to fail banks\" are in much better shape now after laws like Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule were put into place in the wake of the financial crisis to make big banks safer.\nThat group of institutions also includes Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), as well as others that received government bailouts in 2008.\n\"Regulated banks do have more concentrated market share now so they have to be more careful,\" Killinger said. \"But the health of the industry is great, earnings are good and oversight is strong. I'm not too concerned there.\"\nSubprime lending, the practice of giving mortgages to people with less-than-worthy credit histories, isn't nearly as prevalent as it was during the last housing boom. But Killinger is worried about bubbles in many other parts of the economy that threaten the stability of the markets.\nToo big to fail 2.0?\nAlthough housing prices have surged again, Killinger is more nervous about the fact that 0% interest rates and big bond purchases by the Federal Reserve have sparked a broader mania in other assets, including cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), meme stocks, blank check SPAC mergers and exotic exchange-traded funds.\n\"The bubbles today are broader and deeper in a variety of categories, not just housing,\" Killinger said. \"The Fed's policy of low rates and massive asset purchases worked well to get out of the downturn, but when you keep extending it you can cause unintended consequences.\"\n\"The economy continues to improve. It's time for the Fed to pull in the reins on stimulus and allow interest rates to rise,\" he added.\nKillinger and his wife Linda, a former vice chair of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines, have written a book about the 2008 meltdown called \"Nothing Is Too Big to Fail: How the Last Financial Crisis Informs Today.\"\nLinda Killinger told CNN Business she's concerned about the rise of of financial tech companies, hedge funds. private equity firms and other so-called shadow banks that face little to no regulation in Washington.\n\"The non-bank system is a big part of the problem. And there are still a lot of loans being done by non-regulated banks such as online banks and many private companies,\" she said.\nLarge financial firms may be embracing too much risk again\nAt least one prominent senator is worried, like the Killingers are, that some financial firms are once again getting too unwieldy.\nElizabeth Warren questioned Treasury secretary Janet Yellen earlier this year about why BlackRock (BLK), the iShares ETF giant that manages more than $9 trillion in assets but is not a bank, is not considered \"too big to fail.\"\nWall Street has already gotten a brief taste of how risky some of these firms are when Archegos Capital Management, a family office with big positions in media giants ViacomCBS (VIACA) and Discovery (DISCA) and Chinese techs Baidu (BIDU) and Tencent Music (TME), imploded and caused billions of dollars in losses for banks. (AT&T (T) is planning to merge its WarnerMedia unit, CNN's parent company, with Discovery.)\nFor its part, the Fed has acknowledged some of the growing risks to the markets and economy from keeping rates lower for longer and continuing to provide crisis-level stimulus.\nIn the minutes of its latest policy meeting, the central bank acknowledged that \"if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee's goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.\"\nBut Kerry Killinger thinks the Fed has to do a better job of stress-testing big banks for their exposure to some of the types of assets that have been surging in the past year to make sure that they can withstand even more volatility.\n\"The Fed made the mistake of underestimating subprime in the last crisis,\" he said, referring to the now infamous comments from then Fed chair Ben Bernanke in May 2007 that \"the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited.\"\n\"There are growing asset bubbles,\" Kerry Killinger said. \"The Fed needs to test more how firms would perform if these asset prices decline further. If there is a major correction, the impact could be dramatic.\"\nThe heads of big banks will also get their chance to talk about their views on the economy later this week. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Wednesday and the House Financial Services Committee has one scheduled for Thursday.\nJPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will appear at both hearings, as will new Citgroup CEO Jane Fraser, BofA's Brian Moynihan, Wells Fargo's Charles Scharf, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley's James 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11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"In 2008, he was CEO of the biggest bank to ever fail. He's worried about another crisis<blockquote>2008年，他是有史以来倒闭的最大银行的首席执行官。他担心另一场危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129186705","media":"cnn","summary":"New York The banking world nearly caved in 13 years ago. The former CEO of Washington Mutual is worried that another bubble is brewing.Kerry Killinger was named CEO of WaMu in 1990 and was fired in September 2008 -- just weeks before the bank failed as a growing number of mortgage loans went bad.\"Regulated banks do have more concentrated market share now so they have to be more careful,\" Killinger said. \"But the health of the industry is great, earnings are good and oversight is strong. I'm not ","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)The banking world nearly caved in 13 years ago. The former CEO of Washington Mutual is worried that another bubble is brewing.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）13年前，银行界几乎崩溃了。华盛顿互惠银行的前首席执行官担心另一个泡沫正在酝酿。</blockquote></p><p> Kerry Killinger was named CEO of WaMu in 1990 and was fired in September 2008 -- just weeks before the bank failed as a growing number of mortgage loans went bad.</p><p><blockquote>克里·基林格(Kerry Killinger)于1990年被任命为WaMu首席执行官，并于2008年9月被解雇——就在该银行因越来越多的抵押贷款出现不良而倒闭的几周前。</blockquote></p><p> WaMu was one of several top financial firms to collapse during the financial crisis last decade, but the giant savings and loan with more than $300 billion in assets still ranks as the biggest-ever bank failure. WaMu was seized by regulators in September 2008 and sold to JPMorgan Chase (JPM) for a fire-sale price of $1.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>WaMu是过去十年金融危机期间倒闭的几家顶级金融公司之一，但这家资产超过3000亿美元的储蓄和贷款巨头仍然是有史以来最大的银行倒闭事件。WaMu于2008年9月被监管机构查封，并以19亿美元的贱卖价格出售给摩根大通(JPM)。</blockquote></p><p> Killinger spoke to CNN Business about the similarities and differences between now and 13 years ago.</p><p><blockquote>Killinger向CNN Business讲述了现在与13年前的异同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The good news</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好消息是</b></blockquote></p><p> The Global Financial Crisis led to a wave of new federal rules that were designed to strengthen the balance sheets of top banks and ensure that another catastrophe like 2008 could never happen again.</p><p><blockquote>全球金融危机导致了一波新的联邦规则，旨在加强顶级银行的资产负债表，并确保类似2008年的灾难永远不会再次发生。</blockquote></p><p> The good news is that Killinger thinks JPMorgan Chase and other \"too big to fail banks\" are in much better shape now after laws like Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule were put into place in the wake of the financial crisis to make big banks safer.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，基林格认为，在金融危机后实施多德弗兰克法案和沃尔克规则等法律以使大银行更加安全之后，摩根大通和其他“太大而不能倒的银行”现在的状况要好得多。</blockquote></p><p> That group of institutions also includes Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), as well as others that received government bailouts in 2008.</p><p><blockquote>这组机构还包括美国银行(BAC)、花旗集团(C)、富国银行(WFC)、高盛(GS)和摩根士丹利(MS)，以及其他在2008年接受政府救助的机构。</blockquote></p><p> \"Regulated banks do have more concentrated market share now so they have to be more careful,\" Killinger said. \"But the health of the industry is great, earnings are good and oversight is strong. I'm not too concerned there.\"</p><p><blockquote>“受监管的银行现在确实拥有更加集中的市场份额，因此他们必须更加小心，”基林格说。“但该行业的健康状况良好，盈利良好，监管也很有力。我对此并不太担心。”</blockquote></p><p> Subprime lending, the practice of giving mortgages to people with less-than-worthy credit histories, isn't nearly as prevalent as it was during the last housing boom. But Killinger is worried about bubbles in many other parts of the economy that threaten the stability of the markets.</p><p><blockquote>次级贷款，即向信用记录不佳的人提供抵押贷款的做法，已经不像上次房地产繁荣时期那样普遍了。但基林格担心许多其他经济领域的泡沫会威胁到市场的稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Too big to fail 2.0?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大到不能倒2.0？</b></blockquote></p><p> Although housing prices have surged again, Killinger is more nervous about the fact that 0% interest rates and big bond purchases by the Federal Reserve have sparked a broader mania in other assets, including cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), meme stocks, blank check SPAC mergers and exotic exchange-traded funds.</p><p><blockquote>尽管房价再次飙升，但Killinger更紧张的是，0%的利率和美联储的大规模债券购买引发了其他资产更广泛的狂热，包括加密货币和不可替代代币（NFT）、模因股票、空白支票SPAC合并和异国情调的交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bubbles today are broader and deeper in a variety of categories, not just housing,\" Killinger said. \"The Fed's policy of low rates and massive asset purchases worked well to get out of the downturn, but when you keep extending it you can cause unintended consequences.\"</p><p><blockquote>基林格说：“如今的泡沫在各个类别中都更广泛、更深，而不仅仅是房地产。”“美联储的低利率和大规模资产购买政策很好地摆脱了经济低迷，但当你继续延长政策时，可能会造成意想不到的后果。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy continues to improve. It's time for the Fed to pull in the reins on stimulus and allow interest rates to rise,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“经济继续改善。美联储是时候收紧刺激政策并允许利率上升了，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Killinger and his wife Linda, a former vice chair of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines, have written a book about the 2008 meltdown called \"Nothing Is Too Big to Fail: How the Last Financial Crisis Informs Today.\"</p><p><blockquote>基林格和他的妻子琳达（得梅因联邦住房贷款银行前副主席）写了一本关于2008年金融危机的书，名为《没有什么大到不能倒：上次金融危机对今天的影响》。</blockquote></p><p> Linda Killinger told CNN Business she's concerned about the rise of of financial tech companies, hedge funds. private equity firms and other so-called shadow banks that face little to no regulation in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>琳达·基林格(Linda Killinger)告诉CNN Business，她对金融科技公司和对冲基金的崛起感到担忧。私人股本公司和其他所谓的影子银行在华盛顿几乎没有受到监管。</blockquote></p><p> \"The non-bank system is a big part of the problem. And there are still a lot of loans being done by non-regulated banks such as online banks and many private companies,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>“非银行系统是问题的一个重要部分。而且仍然有很多贷款是由不受监管的银行如网上银行和许多私营公司提供的，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Large financial firms may be embracing too much risk again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大型金融公司可能再次承担过多风险</b></blockquote></p><p> At least one prominent senator is worried, like the Killingers are, that some financial firms are once again getting too unwieldy.</p><p><blockquote>至少有一位著名的参议员担心，就像杀手一样，一些金融公司再次变得过于笨重。</blockquote></p><p> Elizabeth Warren questioned Treasury secretary Janet Yellen earlier this year about why BlackRock (BLK), the iShares ETF giant that manages more than $9 trillion in assets but is not a bank, is not considered \"too big to fail.\"</p><p><blockquote>伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)今年早些时候向财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)询问，为什么管理着超过9万亿美元资产但不是银行的iShares ETF巨头贝莱德(BLK)不被认为是“大到不能倒”。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has already gotten a brief taste of how risky some of these firms are when Archegos Capital Management, a family office with big positions in media giants ViacomCBS (VIACA) and Discovery (DISCA) and Chinese techs Baidu (BIDU) and Tencent Music (TME), imploded and caused billions of dollars in losses for banks. (AT&amp;T (T) is planning to merge its WarnerMedia unit, CNN's parent company, with Discovery.)</p><p><blockquote>Archegos Capital Management是一家家族办公室，在媒体巨头维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司(VIACA)和Discovery(DISCA)以及中国科技公司百度(BIDU)和腾讯控股音乐中持有大量头寸，华尔街已经初步了解了其中一些公司的风险有多大。(TME)崩溃并给银行造成数十亿美元的损失。（AT&amp;T(T)正计划将其CNN母公司WarnerMedia部门与Discovery合并。）</blockquote></p><p> For its part, the Fed has acknowledged some of the growing risks to the markets and economy from keeping rates lower for longer and continuing to provide crisis-level stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>就美联储而言，它承认，长期保持低利率并继续提供危机级别的刺激措施给市场和经济带来了一些日益增长的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In the minutes of its latest policy meeting, the central bank acknowledged that \"if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee's goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.\"</p><p><blockquote>在最新的政策会议纪要中，央行承认，“如果经济继续朝着委员会的目标取得快速进展，那么在即将举行的会议中的某个时候开始讨论调整资产购买步伐的计划可能是合适的。”</blockquote></p><p> But Kerry Killinger thinks the Fed has to do a better job of stress-testing big banks for their exposure to some of the types of assets that have been surging in the past year to make sure that they can withstand even more volatility.</p><p><blockquote>但克里·基林格认为，美联储必须更好地对大银行对过去一年飙升的某些类型资产的敞口进行压力测试，以确保它们能够承受更大的波动。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"The Fed made the mistake of underestimating subprime in the last crisis,\" he said, referring to the now infamous comments from then Fed chair Ben Bernanke in May 2007 that \"the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储在上次危机中犯了低估次贷的错误，”他说，指的是时任美联储主席本·伯南克在2007年5月发表的臭名昭著的言论，即“次贷行业的麻烦对更广泛的房地产市场的影响可能是有限的。”</blockquote></p><p> \"There are growing asset bubbles,\" Kerry Killinger said. \"The Fed needs to test more how firms would perform if these asset prices decline further. If there is a major correction, the impact could be dramatic.\"</p><p><blockquote>“资产泡沫越来越大，”克里·基林格说。“美联储需要更多地测试如果这些资产价格进一步下跌，企业将如何表现。如果出现重大调整，影响可能是巨大的。”</blockquote></p><p> The heads of big banks will also get their chance to talk about their views on the economy later this week. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Wednesday and the House Financial Services Committee has one scheduled for Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>本周晚些时候，大银行的负责人也将有机会谈论他们对经济的看法。参议院银行委员会将于周三举行听证会，众议院金融服务委员会定于周四举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will appear at both hearings, as will new Citgroup CEO Jane Fraser, BofA's Brian Moynihan, Wells Fargo's Charles Scharf, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley's James Gorman.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙将出席这两场听证会，花旗集团新任首席执行官简·弗雷泽、美国银行的布莱恩·莫伊尼汉、富国银行的查尔斯·沙夫、高盛首席执行官大卫·所罗门和摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·戈尔曼也将出席。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In 2008, he was CEO of the biggest bank to ever fail. He's worried about another crisis<blockquote>2008年，他是有史以来倒闭的最大银行的首席执行官。他担心另一场危机</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn 2008, he was CEO of the biggest bank to ever fail. He's worried about another crisis<blockquote>2008年，他是有史以来倒闭的最大银行的首席执行官。他担心另一场危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)The banking world nearly caved in 13 years ago. The former CEO of Washington Mutual is worried that another bubble is brewing.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）13年前，银行界几乎崩溃了。华盛顿互惠银行的前首席执行官担心另一个泡沫正在酝酿。</blockquote></p><p> Kerry Killinger was named CEO of WaMu in 1990 and was fired in September 2008 -- just weeks before the bank failed as a growing number of mortgage loans went bad.</p><p><blockquote>克里·基林格(Kerry Killinger)于1990年被任命为WaMu首席执行官，并于2008年9月被解雇——就在该银行因越来越多的抵押贷款出现不良而倒闭的几周前。</blockquote></p><p> WaMu was one of several top financial firms to collapse during the financial crisis last decade, but the giant savings and loan with more than $300 billion in assets still ranks as the biggest-ever bank failure. WaMu was seized by regulators in September 2008 and sold to JPMorgan Chase (JPM) for a fire-sale price of $1.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>WaMu是过去十年金融危机期间倒闭的几家顶级金融公司之一，但这家资产超过3000亿美元的储蓄和贷款巨头仍然是有史以来最大的银行倒闭事件。WaMu于2008年9月被监管机构查封，并以19亿美元的贱卖价格出售给摩根大通(JPM)。</blockquote></p><p> Killinger spoke to CNN Business about the similarities and differences between now and 13 years ago.</p><p><blockquote>Killinger向CNN Business讲述了现在与13年前的异同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The good news</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好消息是</b></blockquote></p><p> The Global Financial Crisis led to a wave of new federal rules that were designed to strengthen the balance sheets of top banks and ensure that another catastrophe like 2008 could never happen again.</p><p><blockquote>全球金融危机导致了一波新的联邦规则，旨在加强顶级银行的资产负债表，并确保类似2008年的灾难永远不会再次发生。</blockquote></p><p> The good news is that Killinger thinks JPMorgan Chase and other \"too big to fail banks\" are in much better shape now after laws like Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule were put into place in the wake of the financial crisis to make big banks safer.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，基林格认为，在金融危机后实施多德弗兰克法案和沃尔克规则等法律以使大银行更加安全之后，摩根大通和其他“太大而不能倒的银行”现在的状况要好得多。</blockquote></p><p> That group of institutions also includes Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), as well as others that received government bailouts in 2008.</p><p><blockquote>这组机构还包括美国银行(BAC)、花旗集团(C)、富国银行(WFC)、高盛(GS)和摩根士丹利(MS)，以及其他在2008年接受政府救助的机构。</blockquote></p><p> \"Regulated banks do have more concentrated market share now so they have to be more careful,\" Killinger said. \"But the health of the industry is great, earnings are good and oversight is strong. I'm not too concerned there.\"</p><p><blockquote>“受监管的银行现在确实拥有更加集中的市场份额，因此他们必须更加小心，”基林格说。“但该行业的健康状况良好，盈利良好，监管也很有力。我对此并不太担心。”</blockquote></p><p> Subprime lending, the practice of giving mortgages to people with less-than-worthy credit histories, isn't nearly as prevalent as it was during the last housing boom. But Killinger is worried about bubbles in many other parts of the economy that threaten the stability of the markets.</p><p><blockquote>次级贷款，即向信用记录不佳的人提供抵押贷款的做法，已经不像上次房地产繁荣时期那样普遍了。但基林格担心许多其他经济领域的泡沫会威胁到市场的稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Too big to fail 2.0?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大到不能倒2.0？</b></blockquote></p><p> Although housing prices have surged again, Killinger is more nervous about the fact that 0% interest rates and big bond purchases by the Federal Reserve have sparked a broader mania in other assets, including cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), meme stocks, blank check SPAC mergers and exotic exchange-traded funds.</p><p><blockquote>尽管房价再次飙升，但Killinger更紧张的是，0%的利率和美联储的大规模债券购买引发了其他资产更广泛的狂热，包括加密货币和不可替代代币（NFT）、模因股票、空白支票SPAC合并和异国情调的交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bubbles today are broader and deeper in a variety of categories, not just housing,\" Killinger said. \"The Fed's policy of low rates and massive asset purchases worked well to get out of the downturn, but when you keep extending it you can cause unintended consequences.\"</p><p><blockquote>基林格说：“如今的泡沫在各个类别中都更广泛、更深，而不仅仅是房地产。”“美联储的低利率和大规模资产购买政策很好地摆脱了经济低迷，但当你继续延长政策时，可能会造成意想不到的后果。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy continues to improve. It's time for the Fed to pull in the reins on stimulus and allow interest rates to rise,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>“经济继续改善。美联储是时候收紧刺激政策并允许利率上升了，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Killinger and his wife Linda, a former vice chair of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines, have written a book about the 2008 meltdown called \"Nothing Is Too Big to Fail: How the Last Financial Crisis Informs Today.\"</p><p><blockquote>基林格和他的妻子琳达（得梅因联邦住房贷款银行前副主席）写了一本关于2008年金融危机的书，名为《没有什么大到不能倒：上次金融危机对今天的影响》。</blockquote></p><p> Linda Killinger told CNN Business she's concerned about the rise of of financial tech companies, hedge funds. private equity firms and other so-called shadow banks that face little to no regulation in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>琳达·基林格(Linda Killinger)告诉CNN Business，她对金融科技公司和对冲基金的崛起感到担忧。私人股本公司和其他所谓的影子银行在华盛顿几乎没有受到监管。</blockquote></p><p> \"The non-bank system is a big part of the problem. And there are still a lot of loans being done by non-regulated banks such as online banks and many private companies,\" she said.</p><p><blockquote>“非银行系统是问题的一个重要部分。而且仍然有很多贷款是由不受监管的银行如网上银行和许多私营公司提供的，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Large financial firms may be embracing too much risk again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大型金融公司可能再次承担过多风险</b></blockquote></p><p> At least one prominent senator is worried, like the Killingers are, that some financial firms are once again getting too unwieldy.</p><p><blockquote>至少有一位著名的参议员担心，就像杀手一样，一些金融公司再次变得过于笨重。</blockquote></p><p> Elizabeth Warren questioned Treasury secretary Janet Yellen earlier this year about why BlackRock (BLK), the iShares ETF giant that manages more than $9 trillion in assets but is not a bank, is not considered \"too big to fail.\"</p><p><blockquote>伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)今年早些时候向财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)询问，为什么管理着超过9万亿美元资产但不是银行的iShares ETF巨头贝莱德(BLK)不被认为是“大到不能倒”。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street has already gotten a brief taste of how risky some of these firms are when Archegos Capital Management, a family office with big positions in media giants ViacomCBS (VIACA) and Discovery (DISCA) and Chinese techs Baidu (BIDU) and Tencent Music (TME), imploded and caused billions of dollars in losses for banks. (AT&amp;T (T) is planning to merge its WarnerMedia unit, CNN's parent company, with Discovery.)</p><p><blockquote>Archegos Capital Management是一家家族办公室，在媒体巨头维亚康姆哥伦比亚广播公司(VIACA)和Discovery(DISCA)以及中国科技公司百度(BIDU)和腾讯控股音乐中持有大量头寸，华尔街已经初步了解了其中一些公司的风险有多大。(TME)崩溃并给银行造成数十亿美元的损失。（AT&amp;T(T)正计划将其CNN母公司WarnerMedia部门与Discovery合并。）</blockquote></p><p> For its part, the Fed has acknowledged some of the growing risks to the markets and economy from keeping rates lower for longer and continuing to provide crisis-level stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>就美联储而言，它承认，长期保持低利率并继续提供危机级别的刺激措施给市场和经济带来了一些日益增长的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In the minutes of its latest policy meeting, the central bank acknowledged that \"if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee's goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.\"</p><p><blockquote>在最新的政策会议纪要中，央行承认，“如果经济继续朝着委员会的目标取得快速进展，那么在即将举行的会议中的某个时候开始讨论调整资产购买步伐的计划可能是合适的。”</blockquote></p><p> But Kerry Killinger thinks the Fed has to do a better job of stress-testing big banks for their exposure to some of the types of assets that have been surging in the past year to make sure that they can withstand even more volatility.</p><p><blockquote>但克里·基林格认为，美联储必须更好地对大银行对过去一年飙升的某些类型资产的敞口进行压力测试，以确保它们能够承受更大的波动。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"The Fed made the mistake of underestimating subprime in the last crisis,\" he said, referring to the now infamous comments from then Fed chair Ben Bernanke in May 2007 that \"the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美联储在上次危机中犯了低估次贷的错误，”他说，指的是时任美联储主席本·伯南克在2007年5月发表的臭名昭著的言论，即“次贷行业的麻烦对更广泛的房地产市场的影响可能是有限的。”</blockquote></p><p> \"There are growing asset bubbles,\" Kerry Killinger said. \"The Fed needs to test more how firms would perform if these asset prices decline further. If there is a major correction, the impact could be dramatic.\"</p><p><blockquote>“资产泡沫越来越大，”克里·基林格说。“美联储需要更多地测试如果这些资产价格进一步下跌，企业将如何表现。如果出现重大调整，影响可能是巨大的。”</blockquote></p><p> The heads of big banks will also get their chance to talk about their views on the economy later this week. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Wednesday and the House Financial Services Committee has one scheduled for Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>本周晚些时候，大银行的负责人也将有机会谈论他们对经济的看法。参议院银行委员会将于周三举行听证会，众议院金融服务委员会定于周四举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will appear at both hearings, as will new Citgroup CEO Jane Fraser, BofA's Brian Moynihan, Wells Fargo's Charles Scharf, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley's James Gorman.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙将出席这两场听证会，花旗集团新任首席执行官简·弗雷泽、美国银行的布莱恩·莫伊尼汉、富国银行的查尔斯·沙夫、高盛首席执行官大卫·所罗门和摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·戈尔曼也将出席。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/25/investing/washington-mutual-kerry-killinger-banks/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/25/investing/washington-mutual-kerry-killinger-banks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129186705","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)The banking world nearly caved in 13 years ago. The former CEO of Washington Mutual is worried that another bubble is brewing.\nKerry Killinger was named CEO of WaMu in 1990 and was fired in September 2008 -- just weeks before the bank failed as a growing number of mortgage loans went bad.\nWaMu was one of several top financial firms to collapse during the financial crisis last decade, but the giant savings and loan with more than $300 billion in assets still ranks as the biggest-ever bank failure. WaMu was seized by regulators in September 2008 and sold to JPMorgan Chase (JPM) for a fire-sale price of $1.9 billion.\nKillinger spoke to CNN Business about the similarities and differences between now and 13 years ago.\nThe good news\nThe Global Financial Crisis led to a wave of new federal rules that were designed to strengthen the balance sheets of top banks and ensure that another catastrophe like 2008 could never happen again.\nThe good news is that Killinger thinks JPMorgan Chase and other \"too big to fail banks\" are in much better shape now after laws like Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule were put into place in the wake of the financial crisis to make big banks safer.\nThat group of institutions also includes Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), as well as others that received government bailouts in 2008.\n\"Regulated banks do have more concentrated market share now so they have to be more careful,\" Killinger said. \"But the health of the industry is great, earnings are good and oversight is strong. I'm not too concerned there.\"\nSubprime lending, the practice of giving mortgages to people with less-than-worthy credit histories, isn't nearly as prevalent as it was during the last housing boom. But Killinger is worried about bubbles in many other parts of the economy that threaten the stability of the markets.\nToo big to fail 2.0?\nAlthough housing prices have surged again, Killinger is more nervous about the fact that 0% interest rates and big bond purchases by the Federal Reserve have sparked a broader mania in other assets, including cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), meme stocks, blank check SPAC mergers and exotic exchange-traded funds.\n\"The bubbles today are broader and deeper in a variety of categories, not just housing,\" Killinger said. \"The Fed's policy of low rates and massive asset purchases worked well to get out of the downturn, but when you keep extending it you can cause unintended consequences.\"\n\"The economy continues to improve. It's time for the Fed to pull in the reins on stimulus and allow interest rates to rise,\" he added.\nKillinger and his wife Linda, a former vice chair of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines, have written a book about the 2008 meltdown called \"Nothing Is Too Big to Fail: How the Last Financial Crisis Informs Today.\"\nLinda Killinger told CNN Business she's concerned about the rise of of financial tech companies, hedge funds. private equity firms and other so-called shadow banks that face little to no regulation in Washington.\n\"The non-bank system is a big part of the problem. And there are still a lot of loans being done by non-regulated banks such as online banks and many private companies,\" she said.\nLarge financial firms may be embracing too much risk again\nAt least one prominent senator is worried, like the Killingers are, that some financial firms are once again getting too unwieldy.\nElizabeth Warren questioned Treasury secretary Janet Yellen earlier this year about why BlackRock (BLK), the iShares ETF giant that manages more than $9 trillion in assets but is not a bank, is not considered \"too big to fail.\"\nWall Street has already gotten a brief taste of how risky some of these firms are when Archegos Capital Management, a family office with big positions in media giants ViacomCBS (VIACA) and Discovery (DISCA) and Chinese techs Baidu (BIDU) and Tencent Music (TME), imploded and caused billions of dollars in losses for banks. (AT&T (T) is planning to merge its WarnerMedia unit, CNN's parent company, with Discovery.)\nFor its part, the Fed has acknowledged some of the growing risks to the markets and economy from keeping rates lower for longer and continuing to provide crisis-level stimulus.\nIn the minutes of its latest policy meeting, the central bank acknowledged that \"if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee's goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.\"\nBut Kerry Killinger thinks the Fed has to do a better job of stress-testing big banks for their exposure to some of the types of assets that have been surging in the past year to make sure that they can withstand even more volatility.\n\"The Fed made the mistake of underestimating subprime in the last crisis,\" he said, referring to the now infamous comments from then Fed chair Ben Bernanke in May 2007 that \"the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited.\"\n\"There are growing asset bubbles,\" Kerry Killinger said. \"The Fed needs to test more how firms would perform if these asset prices decline further. If there is a major correction, the impact could be dramatic.\"\nThe heads of big banks will also get their chance to talk about their views on the economy later this week. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Wednesday and the House Financial Services Committee has one scheduled for Thursday.\nJPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will appear at both hearings, as will new Citgroup CEO Jane Fraser, BofA's Brian Moynihan, Wells Fargo's Charles Scharf, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley's James Gorman.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133836958,"gmtCreate":1621733797174,"gmtModify":1634186938198,"author":{"id":"3579391689824866","authorId":"3579391689824866","name":"SeasonOo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579391689824866","idStr":"3579391689824866"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133836958","repostId":"1181267371","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":195516275,"gmtCreate":1621301433797,"gmtModify":1634192645978,"author":{"id":"3579391689824866","authorId":"3579391689824866","name":"SeasonOo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579391689824866","idStr":"3579391689824866"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195516275","repostId":"1169510742","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169510742","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621300990,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169510742?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-18 09:23","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"开盘：恒指高开0.87%，中国移动涨2.87%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169510742","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月18日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.87%报28438点，国指涨0.93%报10601点，恒生科技指数涨0.83%报7764点。盘面上，国际金价上涨，黄金股集体高开，山东黄金涨5%，中国黄金国际","content":"<p>5月18日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.87%报28438点，国指涨0.93%报10601点，恒生科技指数涨0.83%报7764点。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3800506403a070fb27954dab0109ec66\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">盘面上，国际金价上涨，黄金股集体高开，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600547\">山东黄金</a>涨5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02099\">中国黄金国际</a>涨4.7%；医药类股、乳业股、电力股、海运股、石油股、钢铁、铝等有色金属股普遍上扬；大型科技股强势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>高开近3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东</a>、快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、小米均涨超1%；电信股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">中国移动</a>高开近3%，光伏股、啤酒股、体育用品股下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">李宁</a>大幅低开5%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08032\">非凡中国</a>涨近15%，李宁跌逾5%，非凡中国拟出售李宁2.41%股权，套现38.2亿港元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">中国移动</a>涨2.87%，此前公司公告称建议首次公开发行人民币股份并在上交所上市。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘：恒指高开0.87%，中国移动涨2.87%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：恒指高开0.87%，中国移动涨2.87%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-18 09:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>5月18日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.87%报28438点，国指涨0.93%报10601点，恒生科技指数涨0.83%报7764点。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3800506403a070fb27954dab0109ec66\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">盘面上，国际金价上涨，黄金股集体高开，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600547\">山东黄金</a>涨5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02099\">中国黄金国际</a>涨4.7%；医药类股、乳业股、电力股、海运股、石油股、钢铁、铝等有色金属股普遍上扬；大型科技股强势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>高开近3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东</a>、快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、小米均涨超1%；电信股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">中国移动</a>高开近3%，光伏股、啤酒股、体育用品股下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02331\">李宁</a>大幅低开5%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08032\">非凡中国</a>涨近15%，李宁跌逾5%，非凡中国拟出售李宁2.41%股权，套现38.2亿港元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\">中国移动</a>涨2.87%，此前公司公告称建议首次公开发行人民币股份并在上交所上市。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF","00941":"中国移动","HSI":"恒生指数","CHL":"中国移动","02833":"恒指ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169510742","content_text":"5月18日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.87%报28438点，国指涨0.93%报10601点，恒生科技指数涨0.83%报7764点。盘面上，国际金价上涨，黄金股集体高开，山东黄金涨5%，中国黄金国际涨4.7%；医药类股、乳业股、电力股、海运股、石油股、钢铁、铝等有色金属股普遍上扬；大型科技股强势，百度高开近3%，京东、快手、网易、腾讯、小米均涨超1%；电信股中国移动高开近3%，光伏股、啤酒股、体育用品股下跌，李宁大幅低开5%。非凡中国涨近15%，李宁跌逾5%，非凡中国拟出售李宁2.41%股权，套现38.2亿港元。中国移动涨2.87%，此前公司公告称建议首次公开发行人民币股份并在上交所上市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"02833":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"00941":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"CHL":0.9,"HSImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":115154145,"gmtCreate":1622962257087,"gmtModify":1634096531847,"author":{"id":"3579391689824866","authorId":"3579391689824866","name":"SeasonOo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579391689824866","idStr":"3579391689824866"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115154145","repostId":"1120164826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120164826","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622951745,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120164826?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-06 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2,000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并可能导致ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2,000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并可能导致ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍环比下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118938208,"gmtCreate":1622711738904,"gmtModify":1634098890281,"author":{"id":"3579391689824866","authorId":"3579391689824866","name":"SeasonOo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579391689824866","idStr":"3579391689824866"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118938208","repostId":"1119460087","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119049274,"gmtCreate":1622510369198,"gmtModify":1634100981262,"author":{"id":"3579391689824866","authorId":"3579391689824866","name":"SeasonOo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579391689824866","idStr":"3579391689824866"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119049274","repostId":"1196805095","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131980185,"gmtCreate":1621821466047,"gmtModify":1634186357482,"author":{"id":"3579391689824866","authorId":"3579391689824866","name":"SeasonOo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579391689824866","idStr":"3579391689824866"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131980185","repostId":"2137381187","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":139574626,"gmtCreate":1621647804865,"gmtModify":1634187434657,"author":{"id":"3579391689824866","authorId":"3579391689824866","name":"SeasonOo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579391689824866","idStr":"3579391689824866"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139574626","repostId":"1148935797","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}