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2021-07-26

Looking good

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2021-07-25

Apple is good

What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual

2021-06-18

Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh

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2021-06-11

AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv

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2021-06-11

Ajahhxhdj

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2021-05-05

Hmm let's see what happens later

Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds

2021-05-05

Wow

Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic

2021-05-02

Ughh

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good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177982215","repostId":"2153938547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153938547","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627085070,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153938547?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153938547","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few mo","content":"<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p>\n<p>The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p>\n<p>Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p>\n<p>The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p>\n<p>\"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p>\n<p>The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p>\n<p>The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p>\n<p><b>What to watch for</b></p>\n<p><b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p>\n<p><b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p>\n<p>On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p>\n<p><b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p>\n<p>Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p>\n<p><b>What else to watch for</b></p>\n<p>Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p>\n<p>Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p>\n<p>\"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p>\n<p>Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p>\n<p>\"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p>\n<p>UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p>\n<p>But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p>\n<p>Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p>\n<p>\"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p>\n<p>The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 08:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon\nHeavy promotions in...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153938547","content_text":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon\nHeavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.\nThe pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.\nTypically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple $(AAPL)$ is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.\nThe problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.\n\"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst Brian White.\nThe coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.\nThe June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower one, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.\nWhat to watch for\nEarnings: Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.\nRevenue: The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.\nOn a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.\nStock movement: Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.\nOf the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.\nWhat else to watch for\nApple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.\nSome encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. $(VZ)$, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&T Inc. $(T)$\n\"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.\n\"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.\nUBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.\nBut he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.\nAnother key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.\n\"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"\nThe coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168170515,"gmtCreate":1623968913337,"gmtModify":1634025202049,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","listText":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","text":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168170515","repostId":"2144742686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181146000,"gmtCreate":1623380841300,"gmtModify":1634033959156,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","listText":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","text":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181146000","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181148121,"gmtCreate":1623380811863,"gmtModify":1634033959757,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ajahhxhdj","listText":"Ajahhxhdj","text":"Ajahhxhdj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181148121","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102084436,"gmtCreate":1620168788025,"gmtModify":1634207377746,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm let's see what happens later&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm let's see what happens later&nbsp;","text":"Hmm let's see what happens later","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102084436","repostId":"1107772617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107772617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620139709,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107772617?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107772617","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from inv","content":"<blockquote><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b></blockquote><p>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-04 22:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.Many investors might see this differently — that a huge ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107772617","content_text":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.ReversalNet flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billionsThis 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102085762,"gmtCreate":1620168746156,"gmtModify":1634207378811,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102085762","repostId":"1179044309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179044309","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1620140053,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179044309?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179044309","media":"Benzinga","summary":"After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The S&P 5","content":"<p>After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.</p>\n<p>That’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&amp;P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.</p>\n<p>When you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?</p>\n<p>Anyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.</p>\n<p>For the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies&nbsp;<b>Lyft Technologies Inc.</b>LYFT 4.39%and&nbsp;<b>Uber</b>UBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.</p>\n<p><b>Solid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer</b></p>\n<p>Before that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as&nbsp;<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%and&nbsp;<b>Pfizer</b>PFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.</p>\n<p>Technology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.</p>\n<p>Call it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.</p>\n<p>Still, commodity prices—and not just&nbsp;the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the&nbsp;<b>Bloomberg Commodity Index</b>&nbsp;($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.</p>\n<p>Volatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the&nbsp;<b>Cboe&nbsp;Volatility&nbsp;Index</b>&nbsp;(VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Season About To Catch A&nbsp;Ride</b></p>\n<p>It’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features&nbsp;earnings from<b>Uber Technologies Inc.</b>UBER 3.03%and<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%,&nbsp;two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.</p>\n<p>Both companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.</p>\n<p>If that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.</p>\n<p>In the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.</p>\n<p>In contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking&nbsp;<b>Peloton</b>PTON 0.71%,&nbsp;<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,&nbsp;<b>Moderna</b>MRNA 4.59%,&nbsp;<b>Square</b>SQ 2.71%, and<b>&nbsp;Roku Inc.</b>ROKU 3.81%.&nbsp; A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.</p>\n<p>It’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.</p>\n<p><b>Fresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs</b></p>\n<p>Getting back from the newest models to a veteran,<b>&nbsp;General Motors</b>GM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage.&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.</p>\n<p>Some of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.</p>\n<p>The Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago&nbsp;<b>Intel</b>INTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.</p>\n<p>In other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.</p>\n<p>Of course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b665ba0fa3e07d7fc1e25ce3dd62\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\"></p>\n<p><b>CHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...</b>A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p>\n<p><b>Horse’s Mouth Time:</b>&nbsp;Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with&nbsp;<b>JP Morgan Chase</b>JPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon,&nbsp;<b>Merck</b>MRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p>\n<p>Dimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the&nbsp;Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)&nbsp;front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Come Down The Stretch With A&nbsp;Lead:</b>&nbsp;We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&amp;P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.</p>\n<p>This all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&amp;P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.</p>\n<p><b>No Chips, No Ride:</b>&nbsp;Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.</p>\n<p>For automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like&nbsp;<b>General Motors</b>GM 2.48%,&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-04 22:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.</p>\n<p>That’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&amp;P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.</p>\n<p>When you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?</p>\n<p>Anyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.</p>\n<p>For the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies&nbsp;<b>Lyft Technologies Inc.</b>LYFT 4.39%and&nbsp;<b>Uber</b>UBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.</p>\n<p><b>Solid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer</b></p>\n<p>Before that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as&nbsp;<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%and&nbsp;<b>Pfizer</b>PFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.</p>\n<p>Technology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.</p>\n<p>Call it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.</p>\n<p>Still, commodity prices—and not just&nbsp;the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the&nbsp;<b>Bloomberg Commodity Index</b>&nbsp;($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.</p>\n<p>Volatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the&nbsp;<b>Cboe&nbsp;Volatility&nbsp;Index</b>&nbsp;(VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Season About To Catch A&nbsp;Ride</b></p>\n<p>It’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features&nbsp;earnings from<b>Uber Technologies Inc.</b>UBER 3.03%and<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%,&nbsp;two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.</p>\n<p>Both companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.</p>\n<p>If that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.</p>\n<p>In the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.</p>\n<p>In contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking&nbsp;<b>Peloton</b>PTON 0.71%,&nbsp;<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,&nbsp;<b>Moderna</b>MRNA 4.59%,&nbsp;<b>Square</b>SQ 2.71%, and<b>&nbsp;Roku Inc.</b>ROKU 3.81%.&nbsp; A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.</p>\n<p>It’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.</p>\n<p><b>Fresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs</b></p>\n<p>Getting back from the newest models to a veteran,<b>&nbsp;General Motors</b>GM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage.&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.</p>\n<p>Some of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.</p>\n<p>The Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago&nbsp;<b>Intel</b>INTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.</p>\n<p>In other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.</p>\n<p>Of course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b665ba0fa3e07d7fc1e25ce3dd62\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\"></p>\n<p><b>CHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...</b>A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p>\n<p><b>Horse’s Mouth Time:</b>&nbsp;Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with&nbsp;<b>JP Morgan Chase</b>JPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon,&nbsp;<b>Merck</b>MRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p>\n<p>Dimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the&nbsp;Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)&nbsp;front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Come Down The Stretch With A&nbsp;Lead:</b>&nbsp;We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&amp;P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.</p>\n<p>This all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&amp;P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.</p>\n<p><b>No Chips, No Ride:</b>&nbsp;Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.</p>\n<p>For automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like&nbsp;<b>General Motors</b>GM 2.48%,&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179044309","content_text":"After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.\nThat’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.\nWhen you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?\nAnyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.\nFor the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies Lyft Technologies Inc.LYFT 4.39%and UberUBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.\nSolid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer\nBefore that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as CVSCVS 3%and PfizerPFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.\nTechnology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.\nCall it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.\nStill, commodity prices—and not just the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index ($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.\nVolatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.\nEarnings Season About To Catch A Ride\nIt’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features earnings fromUber Technologies Inc.UBER 3.03%andLyftLYFT 4.39%, two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.\nBoth companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.\nIf that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.\nIn the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.\nIn contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking PelotonPTON 0.71%, PaypalPYPL 3.11%, ModernaMRNA 4.59%, SquareSQ 2.71%, and Roku Inc.ROKU 3.81%.  A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.\nIt’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.\nFresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs\nGetting back from the newest models to a veteran, General MotorsGM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage. FordF 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.\nSome of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.\nThe Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago IntelINTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.\nIn other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.\nOf course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.\n\nCHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nHorse’s Mouth Time: Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with JP Morgan ChaseJPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon, MerckMRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.\nDimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.\nEarnings Come Down The Stretch With A Lead: We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.\nThis all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.\nNo Chips, No Ride: Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.\nFor automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like General MotorsGM 2.48%, FordF 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101505161,"gmtCreate":1619920344853,"gmtModify":1634209130122,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ughh","listText":"Ughh","text":"Ughh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101505161","repostId":"1155857726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":102084436,"gmtCreate":1620168788025,"gmtModify":1634207377746,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm let's see what happens later&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm let's see what happens later&nbsp;","text":"Hmm let's see what happens later","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102084436","repostId":"1107772617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107772617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620139709,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107772617?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107772617","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from inv","content":"<blockquote><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b></blockquote><p>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-04 22:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.Many investors might see this differently — that a huge ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107772617","content_text":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.ReversalNet flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billionsThis 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102085762,"gmtCreate":1620168746156,"gmtModify":1634207378811,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102085762","repostId":"1179044309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179044309","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1620140053,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179044309?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179044309","media":"Benzinga","summary":"After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The S&P 5","content":"<p>After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.</p>\n<p>That’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&amp;P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.</p>\n<p>When you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?</p>\n<p>Anyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.</p>\n<p>For the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies&nbsp;<b>Lyft Technologies Inc.</b>LYFT 4.39%and&nbsp;<b>Uber</b>UBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.</p>\n<p><b>Solid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer</b></p>\n<p>Before that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as&nbsp;<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%and&nbsp;<b>Pfizer</b>PFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.</p>\n<p>Technology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.</p>\n<p>Call it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.</p>\n<p>Still, commodity prices—and not just&nbsp;the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the&nbsp;<b>Bloomberg Commodity Index</b>&nbsp;($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.</p>\n<p>Volatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the&nbsp;<b>Cboe&nbsp;Volatility&nbsp;Index</b>&nbsp;(VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Season About To Catch A&nbsp;Ride</b></p>\n<p>It’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features&nbsp;earnings from<b>Uber Technologies Inc.</b>UBER 3.03%and<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%,&nbsp;two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.</p>\n<p>Both companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.</p>\n<p>If that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.</p>\n<p>In the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.</p>\n<p>In contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking&nbsp;<b>Peloton</b>PTON 0.71%,&nbsp;<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,&nbsp;<b>Moderna</b>MRNA 4.59%,&nbsp;<b>Square</b>SQ 2.71%, and<b>&nbsp;Roku Inc.</b>ROKU 3.81%.&nbsp; A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.</p>\n<p>It’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.</p>\n<p><b>Fresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs</b></p>\n<p>Getting back from the newest models to a veteran,<b>&nbsp;General Motors</b>GM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage.&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.</p>\n<p>Some of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.</p>\n<p>The Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago&nbsp;<b>Intel</b>INTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.</p>\n<p>In other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.</p>\n<p>Of course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b665ba0fa3e07d7fc1e25ce3dd62\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\"></p>\n<p><b>CHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...</b>A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p>\n<p><b>Horse’s Mouth Time:</b>&nbsp;Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with&nbsp;<b>JP Morgan Chase</b>JPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon,&nbsp;<b>Merck</b>MRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p>\n<p>Dimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the&nbsp;Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)&nbsp;front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Come Down The Stretch With A&nbsp;Lead:</b>&nbsp;We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&amp;P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.</p>\n<p>This all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&amp;P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.</p>\n<p><b>No Chips, No Ride:</b>&nbsp;Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.</p>\n<p>For automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like&nbsp;<b>General Motors</b>GM 2.48%,&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-04 22:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.</p>\n<p>That’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&amp;P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.</p>\n<p>When you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?</p>\n<p>Anyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.</p>\n<p>For the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies&nbsp;<b>Lyft Technologies Inc.</b>LYFT 4.39%and&nbsp;<b>Uber</b>UBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.</p>\n<p><b>Solid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer</b></p>\n<p>Before that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as&nbsp;<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%and&nbsp;<b>Pfizer</b>PFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.</p>\n<p>Technology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.</p>\n<p>Call it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.</p>\n<p>Still, commodity prices—and not just&nbsp;the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the&nbsp;<b>Bloomberg Commodity Index</b>&nbsp;($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.</p>\n<p>Volatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the&nbsp;<b>Cboe&nbsp;Volatility&nbsp;Index</b>&nbsp;(VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Season About To Catch A&nbsp;Ride</b></p>\n<p>It’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features&nbsp;earnings from<b>Uber Technologies Inc.</b>UBER 3.03%and<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%,&nbsp;two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.</p>\n<p>Both companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.</p>\n<p>If that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.</p>\n<p>In the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.</p>\n<p>In contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking&nbsp;<b>Peloton</b>PTON 0.71%,&nbsp;<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,&nbsp;<b>Moderna</b>MRNA 4.59%,&nbsp;<b>Square</b>SQ 2.71%, and<b>&nbsp;Roku Inc.</b>ROKU 3.81%.&nbsp; A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.</p>\n<p>It’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.</p>\n<p><b>Fresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs</b></p>\n<p>Getting back from the newest models to a veteran,<b>&nbsp;General Motors</b>GM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage.&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.</p>\n<p>Some of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.</p>\n<p>The Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago&nbsp;<b>Intel</b>INTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.</p>\n<p>In other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.</p>\n<p>Of course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b665ba0fa3e07d7fc1e25ce3dd62\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\"></p>\n<p><b>CHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...</b>A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p>\n<p><b>Horse’s Mouth Time:</b>&nbsp;Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with&nbsp;<b>JP Morgan Chase</b>JPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon,&nbsp;<b>Merck</b>MRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p>\n<p>Dimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the&nbsp;Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)&nbsp;front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Come Down The Stretch With A&nbsp;Lead:</b>&nbsp;We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&amp;P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.</p>\n<p>This all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&amp;P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.</p>\n<p><b>No Chips, No Ride:</b>&nbsp;Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.</p>\n<p>For automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like&nbsp;<b>General Motors</b>GM 2.48%,&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179044309","content_text":"After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.\nThat’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.\nWhen you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?\nAnyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.\nFor the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies Lyft Technologies Inc.LYFT 4.39%and UberUBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.\nSolid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer\nBefore that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as CVSCVS 3%and PfizerPFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.\nTechnology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.\nCall it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.\nStill, commodity prices—and not just the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index ($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.\nVolatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.\nEarnings Season About To Catch A Ride\nIt’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features earnings fromUber Technologies Inc.UBER 3.03%andLyftLYFT 4.39%, two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.\nBoth companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.\nIf that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.\nIn the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.\nIn contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking PelotonPTON 0.71%, PaypalPYPL 3.11%, ModernaMRNA 4.59%, SquareSQ 2.71%, and Roku Inc.ROKU 3.81%.  A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.\nIt’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.\nFresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs\nGetting back from the newest models to a veteran, General MotorsGM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage. FordF 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.\nSome of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.\nThe Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago IntelINTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.\nIn other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.\nOf course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.\n\nCHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nHorse’s Mouth Time: Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with JP Morgan ChaseJPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon, MerckMRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.\nDimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.\nEarnings Come Down The Stretch With A Lead: We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.\nThis all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.\nNo Chips, No Ride: Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.\nFor automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like General MotorsGM 2.48%, FordF 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177713277,"gmtCreate":1627261426399,"gmtModify":1633766802490,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking good","listText":"Looking good","text":"Looking good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177713277","repostId":"1188501846","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188501846","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627261010,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188501846?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Housing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188501846","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafro","content":"<p>The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the&nbsp;<b>U.S. Census Bureau</b>and<b>Department of Housing and Urban Development</b>&nbsp;found single‐family housing starts in June totaled 1.16 million, 6.3% higher than the revised May figure of 1 million.</p>\n<p>Other new data reports from&nbsp;<b>RE/MAX LLC</b>RMAX 0.74%saw home sales up 14.2% from May to June, the largest month-over-month increase since the company began tracking this data 13 years ago, while June’s median sales price of $336,000 was a new record peak.</p>\n<p>To understand where the housing market is headed, Benzinga spoke with one of the nation’s most prominent housing-focused economists,<b>Dr. Anthony B. Sanders,</b>distinguished professor of real estate finance at&nbsp;<b>George Mason University</b>and director and head of asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities research at&nbsp;<b>Deutsche Bank AG</b>DB 1.26%in New York City.</p>\n<p>Sanders’ input has been sought in Congressional hearings and by the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.</p>\n<p><b>Q: What role does housing play in today's U.S. economy?</b></p>\n<p><b>Sanders:</b>Housing has always been important in the U.S. economy, but less so today than during the 2000s.</p>\n<p>During the 2000s, housing was an easy way to grow GDP (in the same way China builds massive housing projects to boost GDP). But since the housing bubble burst in 2008, leading to the financial crisis, the federal government could not rely on an easy GDP approach since housing is a consumption good, not an investment good. That is, the U.S. was not building plants to produce goods while China was building plants.</p>\n<p><b>Q: All recent data is pointing to median home prices at or near record highs. Is this feasible? And how long can prices go up before they stall or go down?</b></p>\n<p><b>Sanders:</b>Particularly in coastal cities, house prices are at record high, exceeding prices during the infamous housing bubble of 2005-2007. This rate of growth is not sustainable, since the ratio of house price growth to earnings growth is even worse than at the peak of the housing bubble. Then, we have the Federal Reserve which is talking about reducing its Agency MBS, which will put upward pressure on mortgage rates.</p>\n<p><b>Q: What impact will the new elevated inflation rates have on home buying?</b></p>\n<p><b>Sanders:</b>Inflation is a dangerous economic phenomenon. Wages are typically sticky with inflation, but home prices surge during inflationary periods. This makes housing even more unaffordable.</p>\n<p>In the past, attempts at inflation-protected mortgage products like PLAMs (price-level adjusted mortgages) failed.</p>\n<p>Thanks to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, adjustable-rate mortgages (that offer inflation protection to lenders and mortgage holders) is only at 3.3% of mortgages, leaving a whopping 96.7% of mortgages as long-term, fixed-rate mortgages.</p>\n<p>Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages are particularly sensitive to inflationary pressures and interest rate increases. In other words, the Federal Reserve has boxed the mortgage market into a corner ... of risk.</p>\n<p><b>Q: Home construction is more expensive than ever, with increased supply costs and a shrinking labor pool. How are home builders responding to this, and what does it mean for buyers?</b></p>\n<p><b>Sanders:</b>Even though lumber costs have been declining after the spike in price, the cost to build a home is higher than ever. Complicating the federal government's push for affordable housing are local supply constraints, such as zoning laws that discourage new construction.</p>\n<p><b>Q: Speaking of the federal government, what is going to happen to the housing market when the federal moratoriums on forbearance and evictions expire? Will we see a rush of foreclosure filings and tenants kicked out of rental housing to make room for others who can pay higher rents?</b></p>\n<p><b>Sanders:</b>What will happen when the moratoriums and forbearances have been lifted is hotly debated. Once again, skyrocketing housing prices and sticky wage growth is not a recipe for success when the moratoriums and forbearance programs are lifted.</p>\n<p>The Biden administration issued afact sheetto help stem the anticipated spike in foreclosures.</p>\n<p><b>Q: What is the Biden housing policy? And where is HUD SecretaryMarcia Fudgein the policy making? Lately, she seems to be talking about COVID and infrastructure a lot, but what is she doing for housing?</b></p>\n<p><b>Sanders:</b>Biden and his team look like \"deer in the headlights\" with regards to housing policy. It is difficult to have a sane \"affordable\" housing policy with runaway housing prices (which is also inflationary).</p>\n<p>HUD Secretary<b>Shaun Donovan</b>under President Obama at least conceded that most low-income families were better off renting their dwelling and he focused on multifamily programs, not chasing homeownership rates.</p>\n<p>No one knows what Fudge is thinking about housing policy, but the fact sheet from the Biden administration (which was not signed by HUD Secretary Fudge) seems more like \"deer in the headlights\" policy making. Or sheer panic.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Housing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHousing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 08:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the U.S. Census BureauandDepartment of Housing and Urban Development found single‐family housing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188501846","content_text":"The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the U.S. Census BureauandDepartment of Housing and Urban Development found single‐family housing starts in June totaled 1.16 million, 6.3% higher than the revised May figure of 1 million.\nOther new data reports from RE/MAX LLCRMAX 0.74%saw home sales up 14.2% from May to June, the largest month-over-month increase since the company began tracking this data 13 years ago, while June’s median sales price of $336,000 was a new record peak.\nTo understand where the housing market is headed, Benzinga spoke with one of the nation’s most prominent housing-focused economists,Dr. Anthony B. Sanders,distinguished professor of real estate finance at George Mason Universityand director and head of asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities research at Deutsche Bank AGDB 1.26%in New York City.\nSanders’ input has been sought in Congressional hearings and by the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.\nQ: What role does housing play in today's U.S. economy?\nSanders:Housing has always been important in the U.S. economy, but less so today than during the 2000s.\nDuring the 2000s, housing was an easy way to grow GDP (in the same way China builds massive housing projects to boost GDP). But since the housing bubble burst in 2008, leading to the financial crisis, the federal government could not rely on an easy GDP approach since housing is a consumption good, not an investment good. That is, the U.S. was not building plants to produce goods while China was building plants.\nQ: All recent data is pointing to median home prices at or near record highs. Is this feasible? And how long can prices go up before they stall or go down?\nSanders:Particularly in coastal cities, house prices are at record high, exceeding prices during the infamous housing bubble of 2005-2007. This rate of growth is not sustainable, since the ratio of house price growth to earnings growth is even worse than at the peak of the housing bubble. Then, we have the Federal Reserve which is talking about reducing its Agency MBS, which will put upward pressure on mortgage rates.\nQ: What impact will the new elevated inflation rates have on home buying?\nSanders:Inflation is a dangerous economic phenomenon. Wages are typically sticky with inflation, but home prices surge during inflationary periods. This makes housing even more unaffordable.\nIn the past, attempts at inflation-protected mortgage products like PLAMs (price-level adjusted mortgages) failed.\nThanks to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, adjustable-rate mortgages (that offer inflation protection to lenders and mortgage holders) is only at 3.3% of mortgages, leaving a whopping 96.7% of mortgages as long-term, fixed-rate mortgages.\nThirty-year fixed-rate mortgages are particularly sensitive to inflationary pressures and interest rate increases. In other words, the Federal Reserve has boxed the mortgage market into a corner ... of risk.\nQ: Home construction is more expensive than ever, with increased supply costs and a shrinking labor pool. How are home builders responding to this, and what does it mean for buyers?\nSanders:Even though lumber costs have been declining after the spike in price, the cost to build a home is higher than ever. Complicating the federal government's push for affordable housing are local supply constraints, such as zoning laws that discourage new construction.\nQ: Speaking of the federal government, what is going to happen to the housing market when the federal moratoriums on forbearance and evictions expire? Will we see a rush of foreclosure filings and tenants kicked out of rental housing to make room for others who can pay higher rents?\nSanders:What will happen when the moratoriums and forbearances have been lifted is hotly debated. Once again, skyrocketing housing prices and sticky wage growth is not a recipe for success when the moratoriums and forbearance programs are lifted.\nThe Biden administration issued afact sheetto help stem the anticipated spike in foreclosures.\nQ: What is the Biden housing policy? And where is HUD SecretaryMarcia Fudgein the policy making? Lately, she seems to be talking about COVID and infrastructure a lot, but what is she doing for housing?\nSanders:Biden and his team look like \"deer in the headlights\" with regards to housing policy. It is difficult to have a sane \"affordable\" housing policy with runaway housing prices (which is also inflationary).\nHUD SecretaryShaun Donovanunder President Obama at least conceded that most low-income families were better off renting their dwelling and he focused on multifamily programs, not chasing homeownership rates.\nNo one knows what Fudge is thinking about housing policy, but the fact sheet from the Biden administration (which was not signed by HUD Secretary Fudge) seems more like \"deer in the headlights\" policy making. Or sheer panic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181146000,"gmtCreate":1623380841300,"gmtModify":1634033959156,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","listText":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","text":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181146000","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181148121,"gmtCreate":1623380811863,"gmtModify":1634033959757,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ajahhxhdj","listText":"Ajahhxhdj","text":"Ajahhxhdj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181148121","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177982215,"gmtCreate":1627176060037,"gmtModify":1633767502611,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple is good","listText":"Apple is good","text":"Apple is good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177982215","repostId":"2153938547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153938547","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627085070,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153938547?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153938547","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few mo","content":"<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p>\n<p>The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p>\n<p>Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p>\n<p>The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p>\n<p>\"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p>\n<p>The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p>\n<p>The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p>\n<p><b>What to watch for</b></p>\n<p><b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p>\n<p><b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p>\n<p>On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p>\n<p><b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p>\n<p>Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p>\n<p><b>What else to watch for</b></p>\n<p>Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p>\n<p>Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p>\n<p>\"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p>\n<p>Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p>\n<p>\"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p>\n<p>UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p>\n<p>But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p>\n<p>Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p>\n<p>\"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p>\n<p>The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 08:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon\nHeavy promotions in...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153938547","content_text":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon\nHeavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.\nThe pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.\nTypically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple $(AAPL)$ is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.\nThe problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.\n\"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst Brian White.\nThe coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.\nThe June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower one, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.\nWhat to watch for\nEarnings: Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.\nRevenue: The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.\nOn a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.\nStock movement: Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.\nOf the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.\nWhat else to watch for\nApple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.\nSome encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. $(VZ)$, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&T Inc. $(T)$\n\"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.\n\"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.\nUBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.\nBut he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.\nAnother key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.\n\"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"\nThe coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101505161,"gmtCreate":1619920344853,"gmtModify":1634209130122,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ughh","listText":"Ughh","text":"Ughh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101505161","repostId":"1155857726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168170515,"gmtCreate":1623968913337,"gmtModify":1634025202049,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","listText":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","text":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168170515","repostId":"2144742686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}