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2021-07-26

Looking good

Housing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote>

2021-07-25

Apple is good

What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>

2021-06-18

Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh

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2021-06-11

AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv

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2021-06-11

Ajahhxhdj

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2021-05-05

Hmm let's see what happens later

Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>

2021-05-05

Wow

Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic<blockquote>共享重新开放之旅：优步、Lyft的盈利可能为大流行后的生活提供线索</blockquote>

2021-05-02

Ughh

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good","listText":"Looking good","text":"Looking good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177713277","repostId":"1188501846","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188501846","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627261010,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188501846?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Housing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188501846","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafro","content":"<p><div> The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the U.S. Census BureauandDepartment of Housing and Urban Development found single‐family housing ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国房地产市场似乎正处于不间断的上升状态。美国人口普查局和住房和城市发展部的最新数据发现单户住宅...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Housing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHousing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the U.S. Census BureauandDepartment of Housing and Urban Development found single‐family housing ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国房地产市场似乎正处于不间断的上升状态。美国人口普查局和住房和城市发展部的最新数据发现单户住宅...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FMCC":"房地美","FNMA":"房利美"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188501846","content_text":"The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the U.S. Census BureauandDepartment of Housing and Urban Development found single‐family housing starts in June totaled 1.16 million, 6.3% higher than the revised May figure of 1 million.\nOther new data reports from RE/MAX LLCRMAX 0.74%saw home sales up 14.2% from May to June, the largest month-over-month increase since the company began tracking this data 13 years ago, while June’s median sales price of $336,000 was a new record peak.\nTo understand where the housing market is headed, Benzinga spoke with one of the nation’s most prominent housing-focused economists,Dr. Anthony B. Sanders,distinguished professor of real estate finance at George Mason Universityand director and head of asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities research at Deutsche Bank AGDB 1.26%in New York City.\nSanders’ input has been sought in Congressional hearings and by the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.\nQ: What role does housing play in today's U.S. economy?\nSanders:Housing has always been important in the U.S. economy, but less so today than during the 2000s.\nDuring the 2000s, housing was an easy way to grow GDP (in the same way China builds massive housing projects to boost GDP). But since the housing bubble burst in 2008, leading to the financial crisis, the federal government could not rely on an easy GDP approach since housing is a consumption good, not an investment good. That is, the U.S. was not building plants to produce goods while China was building plants.\nQ: All recent data is pointing to median home prices at or near record highs. Is this feasible? And how long can prices go up before they stall or go down?\nSanders:Particularly in coastal cities, house prices are at record high, exceeding prices during the infamous housing bubble of 2005-2007. This rate of growth is not sustainable, since the ratio of house price growth to earnings growth is even worse than at the peak of the housing bubble. Then, we have the Federal Reserve which is talking about reducing its Agency MBS, which will put upward pressure on mortgage rates.\nQ: What impact will the new elevated inflation rates have on home buying?\nSanders:Inflation is a dangerous economic phenomenon. Wages are typically sticky with inflation, but home prices surge during inflationary periods. This makes housing even more unaffordable.\nIn the past, attempts at inflation-protected mortgage products like PLAMs (price-level adjusted mortgages) failed.\nThanks to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, adjustable-rate mortgages (that offer inflation protection to lenders and mortgage holders) is only at 3.3% of mortgages, leaving a whopping 96.7% of mortgages as long-term, fixed-rate mortgages.\nThirty-year fixed-rate mortgages are particularly sensitive to inflationary pressures and interest rate increases. In other words, the Federal Reserve has boxed the mortgage market into a corner ... of risk.\nQ: Home construction is more expensive than ever, with increased supply costs and a shrinking labor pool. How are home builders responding to this, and what does it mean for buyers?\nSanders:Even though lumber costs have been declining after the spike in price, the cost to build a home is higher than ever. Complicating the federal government's push for affordable housing are local supply constraints, such as zoning laws that discourage new construction.\nQ: Speaking of the federal government, what is going to happen to the housing market when the federal moratoriums on forbearance and evictions expire? Will we see a rush of foreclosure filings and tenants kicked out of rental housing to make room for others who can pay higher rents?\nSanders:What will happen when the moratoriums and forbearances have been lifted is hotly debated. Once again, skyrocketing housing prices and sticky wage growth is not a recipe for success when the moratoriums and forbearance programs are lifted.\nThe Biden administration issued afact sheetto help stem the anticipated spike in foreclosures.\nQ: What is the Biden housing policy? And where is HUD SecretaryMarcia Fudgein the policy making? Lately, she seems to be talking about COVID and infrastructure a lot, but what is she doing for housing?\nSanders:Biden and his team look like \"deer in the headlights\" with regards to housing policy. It is difficult to have a sane \"affordable\" housing policy with runaway housing prices (which is also inflationary).\nHUD SecretaryShaun Donovanunder President Obama at least conceded that most low-income families were better off renting their dwelling and he focused on multifamily programs, not chasing homeownership rates.\nNo one knows what Fudge is thinking about housing policy, but the fact sheet from the Biden administration (which was not signed by HUD Secretary Fudge) seems more like \"deer in the headlights\" policy making. Or sheer panic.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FMCC":0.9,"FNMA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177982215,"gmtCreate":1627176060037,"gmtModify":1633767502611,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple is good","listText":"Apple is good","text":"Apple is good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177982215","repostId":"2153938547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153938547","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627085070,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153938547?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153938547","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few mo","content":"<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管在周二下午讨论业绩时透露更多有关下一次iPhone发布的暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能使苹果在第二季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这场大流行可能会给通常伴随苹果公司六月季度电话会议的猜谜游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常最重要的花絮来自第三财季收益，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>定于周二下午公布该公司对9月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一款智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在本财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而较弱的指引可能表明推出将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这一次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟发布正式展望一年多，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以表明其业绩与前几个季度的业绩相比如何，但众所周知，它对iPhone发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness、Crespi、Hardt&amp;Co.分析师Brian写道：“我们预计iPhone 13的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的摇摆因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更精细的方向性评论。”怀特。</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将推出的产品令人非常感兴趣。Barclays分析师Tim Long写道：“iPhone 12周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的六月季度数据传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着消费者等待下一款iPhone的发布，但该公司仍有望实现智能手机业务的大幅增长。该公司不仅可以轻松地与疫情早期进行比较，而且还应该从异常促销的无线行业中获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为1.01美元，高于去年同期的65美分。根据Estimize（对冲基金、学者和其他人的众包预测）的数据，平均预期每股收益为1.16美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet一致认为评级的总收入为732.6亿美元，高于一年前的596.9亿美元。根据Estimize，平均估计为773.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中的四份后下跌，尽管该股在过去12个月内上涨了60%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet追踪的44名研究苹果股票的分析师中，33名给予买入评级，9名给予持有评级，2名给予卖出评级，平均目标价为157.88美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么值得注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone业务有望实现至少三年来的第二大增长率，仅次于上一季度。FactSet追踪的分析师预计iPhone营收为342亿美元，同比增长29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大规模的iPhone促销活动，试图与竞争对手AT&amp;T Inc.的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon首席财务官Matthew Ellis在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度势头强劲，我们安排了促销活动，以充分利用经济复苏和客户活动增加的机会。”威瑞森大约20%的消费者现在使用支持5G的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们可能有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>“如果免费提供基本型号，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元升级到更高端型号，”他在分析去年补贴的基础上写道。</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极迹象，例如“积极的促销活动”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他行业，该公司的整体上涨空间受到“限制”。苹果在其收益看涨期权中解决了这些问题，预计6月份季度的负面收入影响将达到30亿至40亿美元，预计主要影响Mac和iPad业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，考虑到家庭以外更正常的活动，这两个部分如何更普遍地保持下去。苹果的Mac和iPad在那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和学校教育的人中很受欢迎，但分析师将关注个人电脑的繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA分析师安吉洛·齐诺(Angelo Zino)写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在[6月季度]及其后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别的近期有利因素。”“我们看到，随着全球经济全面重新开放，企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的丰富多彩的iMac系列和功能强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都是在春季推出的，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 08:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管在周二下午讨论业绩时透露更多有关下一次iPhone发布的暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能使苹果在第二季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这场大流行可能会给通常伴随苹果公司六月季度电话会议的猜谜游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常最重要的花絮来自第三财季收益，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>定于周二下午公布该公司对9月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一款智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在本财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而较弱的指引可能表明推出将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这一次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟发布正式展望一年多，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以表明其业绩与前几个季度的业绩相比如何，但众所周知，它对iPhone发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness、Crespi、Hardt&amp;Co.分析师Brian写道：“我们预计iPhone 13的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的摇摆因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更精细的方向性评论。”怀特。</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将推出的产品令人非常感兴趣。Barclays分析师Tim Long写道：“iPhone 12周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的六月季度数据传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着消费者等待下一款iPhone的发布，但该公司仍有望实现智能手机业务的大幅增长。该公司不仅可以轻松地与疫情早期进行比较，而且还应该从异常促销的无线行业中获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为1.01美元，高于去年同期的65美分。根据Estimize（对冲基金、学者和其他人的众包预测）的数据，平均预期每股收益为1.16美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet一致认为评级的总收入为732.6亿美元，高于一年前的596.9亿美元。根据Estimize，平均估计为773.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中的四份后下跌，尽管该股在过去12个月内上涨了60%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet追踪的44名研究苹果股票的分析师中，33名给予买入评级，9名给予持有评级，2名给予卖出评级，平均目标价为157.88美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么值得注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone业务有望实现至少三年来的第二大增长率，仅次于上一季度。FactSet追踪的分析师预计iPhone营收为342亿美元，同比增长29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大规模的iPhone促销活动，试图与竞争对手AT&amp;T Inc.的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon首席财务官Matthew Ellis在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度势头强劲，我们安排了促销活动，以充分利用经济复苏和客户活动增加的机会。”威瑞森大约20%的消费者现在使用支持5G的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们可能有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>“如果免费提供基本型号，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元升级到更高端型号，”他在分析去年补贴的基础上写道。</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极迹象，例如“积极的促销活动”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他行业，该公司的整体上涨空间受到“限制”。苹果在其收益看涨期权中解决了这些问题，预计6月份季度的负面收入影响将达到30亿至40亿美元，预计主要影响Mac和iPad业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，考虑到家庭以外更正常的活动，这两个部分如何更普遍地保持下去。苹果的Mac和iPad在那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和学校教育的人中很受欢迎，但分析师将关注个人电脑的繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA分析师安吉洛·齐诺(Angelo Zino)写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在[6月季度]及其后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别的近期有利因素。”“我们看到，随着全球经济全面重新开放，企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的丰富多彩的iMac系列和功能强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都是在春季推出的，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153938547","content_text":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon\nHeavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.\nThe pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.\nTypically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple $(AAPL)$ is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.\nThe problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.\n\"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst Brian White.\nThe coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.\nThe June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower one, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.\nWhat to watch for\nEarnings: Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.\nRevenue: The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.\nOn a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.\nStock movement: Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.\nOf the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.\nWhat else to watch for\nApple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.\nSome encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. $(VZ)$, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&T Inc. $(T)$\n\"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.\n\"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.\nUBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.\nBut he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.\nAnother key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.\n\"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"\nThe coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168170515,"gmtCreate":1623968913337,"gmtModify":1634025202049,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","listText":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","text":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168170515","repostId":"2144742686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181146000,"gmtCreate":1623380841300,"gmtModify":1634033959156,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","listText":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","text":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181146000","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181148121,"gmtCreate":1623380811863,"gmtModify":1634033959757,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ajahhxhdj","listText":"Ajahhxhdj","text":"Ajahhxhdj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181148121","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102084436,"gmtCreate":1620168788025,"gmtModify":1634207377746,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm let's see what happens later&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm let's see what happens later&nbsp;","text":"Hmm let's see what happens later","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102084436","repostId":"1107772617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107772617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620139709,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107772617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107772617","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from inv","content":"<p><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote><b>有了投资，受欢迎并不是更好。</b>美国股票基金现在正从投资者那里获得大量新现金——这并不是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者可能会有不同的看法——大量现金流入是积极的。事实上，资金流动是一个逆向指标：过去美国股市在现金净流出时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><blockquote>下图总结了证据，该图绘制了过去十年中每年流入美国股票基金（开放式基金和交易所交易基金）的现金净额。请注意，自2010年以来，除了两年之外，所有年份都有净流出。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逆转</b></blockquote></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p><blockquote>流入美国股票（开放式基金和ETF）的净流量，单位：十亿</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p><blockquote>2010年至2020年期间，美国股市表现极其强劲。然而，在此期间，美国股票基金经历了7410亿美元的净流出。（数据来自TrimTabs，EPFR是Informa Financial Intelligence的一个部门。）</blockquote></p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，这一长期趋势发生了重大逆转。根据TrimTabs的数据，今年前四个月，美国股票基金获得了1423亿美元的净流入。如果这一速度持续全年，2021年将有4270亿美元的净流入——追溯到2010年至2020年总流出的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p><blockquote>去年12月的《金融评论》上发表了一项研究，对今年迄今为止的巨额资金流入持悲观态度。这项名为“ETF套利、非基本面需求和回报可预测性”的研究由亚利桑那大学的David Brown、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Shaun William Davies和犹他大学的Matthew Ringgenberg进行。研究人员发现，平均而言，在这些极端资金流动后的一年内，流出最多的ETF的表现优于流入最多的ETF。</blockquote></p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p><blockquote>另一项得出类似结论的学术研究自一月份以来一直在流传。这项名为“ETF领域注意力的竞争”的研究由俄亥俄州立大学的Itzhak Ben-David和Byungwook Kim、瑞士卢加诺大学的Francesco Franzoni和维拉诺瓦大学的Rabih Moussawi进行。研究人员重点关注专门的ETF，这些ETF是为了利用投资者时尚和市场趋势而创建的，通常在推出后不久就会获得大量现金流入。他们发现，这些ETF在推出后的前五年，经风险调整后平均每年落后市场5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p><blockquote>业绩和资金流动之间的微妙关系也在附表中显而易见。第一个列出了年初至今回报最好的10只ETF。第二张表列出了净流入最多的10只ETF。（返回数据来自FactSet；流量数据来自CFRA研究）。</blockquote></p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，第一个表中的基金都没有出现在第二个表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 22:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote><b>有了投资，受欢迎并不是更好。</b>美国股票基金现在正从投资者那里获得大量新现金——这并不是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者可能会有不同的看法——大量现金流入是积极的。事实上，资金流动是一个逆向指标：过去美国股市在现金净流出时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><blockquote>下图总结了证据，该图绘制了过去十年中每年流入美国股票基金（开放式基金和交易所交易基金）的现金净额。请注意，自2010年以来，除了两年之外，所有年份都有净流出。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逆转</b></blockquote></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p><blockquote>流入美国股票（开放式基金和ETF）的净流量，单位：十亿</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p><blockquote>2010年至2020年期间，美国股市表现极其强劲。然而，在此期间，美国股票基金经历了7410亿美元的净流出。（数据来自TrimTabs，EPFR是Informa Financial Intelligence的一个部门。）</blockquote></p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，这一长期趋势发生了重大逆转。根据TrimTabs的数据，今年前四个月，美国股票基金获得了1423亿美元的净流入。如果这一速度持续全年，2021年将有4270亿美元的净流入——追溯到2010年至2020年总流出的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p><blockquote>去年12月的《金融评论》上发表了一项研究，对今年迄今为止的巨额资金流入持悲观态度。这项名为“ETF套利、非基本面需求和回报可预测性”的研究由亚利桑那大学的David Brown、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Shaun William Davies和犹他大学的Matthew Ringgenberg进行。研究人员发现，平均而言，在这些极端资金流动后的一年内，流出最多的ETF的表现优于流入最多的ETF。</blockquote></p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p><blockquote>另一项得出类似结论的学术研究自一月份以来一直在流传。这项名为“ETF领域注意力的竞争”的研究由俄亥俄州立大学的Itzhak Ben-David和Byungwook Kim、瑞士卢加诺大学的Francesco Franzoni和维拉诺瓦大学的Rabih Moussawi进行。研究人员重点关注专门的ETF，这些ETF是为了利用投资者时尚和市场趋势而创建的，通常在推出后不久就会获得大量现金流入。他们发现，这些ETF在推出后的前五年，经风险调整后平均每年落后市场5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p><blockquote>业绩和资金流动之间的微妙关系也在附表中显而易见。第一个列出了年初至今回报最好的10只ETF。第二张表列出了净流入最多的10只ETF。（返回数据来自FactSet；流量数据来自CFRA研究）。</blockquote></p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，第一个表中的基金都没有出现在第二个表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107772617","content_text":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.ReversalNet flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billionsThis 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102085762,"gmtCreate":1620168746156,"gmtModify":1634207378811,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102085762","repostId":"1179044309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179044309","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1620140053,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179044309?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic<blockquote>共享重新开放之旅：优步、Lyft的盈利可能为大流行后的生活提供线索</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179044309","media":"Benzinga","summary":"After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The S&P 5","content":"<p>After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.</p><p><blockquote>在进入财报季后，过去两周股市基本上停滞不前。The<b>标普500指数</b>(SPX)周一收盘较4月中旬财报季开始时变化不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&amp;P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管迄今为止标普500公司第一季度的盈利表现令人惊叹，平均每股收益增长了40%以上。FactSet的数据显示，财报季已过半，86%的公司盈利超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> When you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?</p><p><blockquote>当你伴随着主要指数缺乏涨幅时，你必须问自己有多少好消息被定价了。我们在报告期之前就已经处于历史高点，那么现实能否与预期相匹配呢？</blockquote></p><p> Anyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这种前进的停滞并不是什么值得过度担心的事情。我们即将进入夏季，这往往是一个成交量较少的时期，但成交量较少也可能意味着好事。</blockquote></p><p> For the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies&nbsp;<b>Lyft Technologies Inc.</b>LYFT 4.39%and&nbsp;<b>Uber</b>UBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.</p><p><blockquote>对于下一步行动，投资者可能会密切关注拼车公司<b>Lyft技术公司。</b>LYFT 4.39%和<b>优步</b>UBER今天和明天将上涨3.03%，看看他们是否可以提供有关重新开放进展的见解。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Solid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>CVS和辉瑞继续稳健的报告季</b></blockquote></p><p> Before that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as&nbsp;<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%and&nbsp;<b>Pfizer</b>PFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，投资者今天上午又收到了一组可靠的盈利消息，<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%和<b>辉瑞</b>PFE 0.45%超出普遍预期并上调指引。PFE将今年的收入指引上调了18%，这相当令人印象深刻。其中一些与他们的Covid疫苗有关，但不是全部。</blockquote></p><p> Technology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>周二早些时候，科技——尤其是该集团中所谓的“FAANG”部门——似乎受到了最严重的影响。科技板块是上周SPX表现最差的板块，尽管该板块大多数“大型股”的盈利看起来稳健。与此同时，周期性板块——比如金融和能源——最近领涨。这更符合我们今年早些时候在科技进入财报季之前所看到的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Call it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权它是你想要的：一些人用“整合”这个词来描述在新闻流放缓的情况下市场缺乏方向。无方向交易似乎将延续到周二，主要股指在开盘前下跌，备受关注的10年期国债收益率回到1.6%，处于近期区间的中间位置。</blockquote></p><p> Still, commodity prices—and not just&nbsp;the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the&nbsp;<b>Bloomberg Commodity Index</b>&nbsp;($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，大宗商品价格——不仅仅是我们最近谈到的半导体——仍在上涨，随着<b>彭博商品指数</b>($BCOM)是处于多年高点的大宗商品基准之一。即使长期国债收益率保持低迷，美联储坚持其“暂时性通胀”的说法（见下文），大宗商品似乎也在考虑价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Volatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the&nbsp;<b>Cboe&nbsp;Volatility&nbsp;Index</b>&nbsp;(VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到股市面临的压力，波动性也略有上升，这并不奇怪。密切关注20级<b>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数</b>（波动率指数）。我们仅略低于该基准数字，从远期合约来看，我们似乎将继续反弹一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings Season About To Catch A&nbsp;Ride</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财报季即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features&nbsp;earnings from<b>Uber Technologies Inc.</b>UBER 3.03%and<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%,&nbsp;two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.</p><p><blockquote>周一，“重新开放”股票在一周的收益中领先，这是很合适的<b>优步技术公司。</b>优步3.03%和<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%，如果人们更多地外出，这两家公司可能会受益。LYFT预计将于今天收盘后发布报告，UBER将于明天收盘后发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司显然都很难找到满足所有新需求的司机，这是一个很好的问题。然而，这可能代价高昂，双方都必须在司机激励上花费更多。美国劳工部长告诉路透社，许多零工经济工人应该被视为雇员，这也带来了监管阻力。</blockquote></p><p> If that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种情况最终在全国范围内发生，优步和LYFT不得不将司机视为员工而不是独立承包商，这似乎将大幅增加这些公司的成本。然而，这还远未解决。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者可能想知道的是，LYFT和优步在上次缩小年度净亏损后，第一季度是否能够继续削减亏损。他们仍可能面临艰难的收入比较，因为他们所比较的2020年季度的大部分时间都发生在去年3月疫情爆发之前。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking&nbsp;<b>Peloton</b>PTON 0.71%,&nbsp;<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,&nbsp;<b>Moderna</b>MRNA 4.59%,&nbsp;<b>Square</b>SQ 2.71%, and<b>&nbsp;Roku Inc.</b>ROKU 3.81%.&nbsp; A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，未来几天的其他大型收益报告包括去年疫情爆发时许多投资者大力支持的一些公司。我们在说话<b>佩洛顿</b>PTON 0.71%，<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,<b>现代</b>MRNA 4.59%，<b>平方</b>平方2.71%，以及<b>Roku公司。</b>ROKU 3.81%。其中许多公司在2020年都取得了惊人的业绩，但可能会提前数年的需求。现在，随着经济重新开放，他们面临着解释如何实现利润以及如何保持兴奋的压力。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.</p><p><blockquote>这些股票并不一定是你可以认为昙花一现的股票。习惯于在家锻炼并购买PTON机器的人可能不会马上放弃它去健身房，或者根本不会。分析师最近告诉《巴伦周刊》，MRNA的疫苗技术还有超越新冠疫苗成功的可能性。PYPL和SQ的技术在新冠疫情之前就已经很受欢迎了，尽管疫情可能会给它们带来推动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的收益可能会揭示供应短缺和成本</b></blockquote></p><p> Getting back from the newest models to a veteran,<b>&nbsp;General Motors</b>GM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage.&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.</p><p><blockquote>从最新款回到老手，<b>通用汽车</b>通用汽车2.48%明天报告。与其他汽车公司一样，通用汽车的盈利看涨期权可以为半导体芯片短缺提供一个有趣的视角。<b>福特</b>F 1.98%上周表示，该问题对其业务造成的影响超出了此前的预期，并可能给其下半年的经营业绩带来压力。有关芯片短缺如何影响汽车制造商的更多信息，请参见下文。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.</p><p><blockquote>芯片及其他领域的一些供应短缺可能会在本周的经济数据中显现出来。周一公布的4月份ISM制造业增长率为60.7%，低于华尔街预期，低于一个月前的64.7%。供应链中断和原材料成本上升可能是导致数字下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago&nbsp;<b>Intel</b>INTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.</p><p><blockquote>美联储一直表示通胀将是暂时的，但我们将看看他们最终是否正确。几周前<b>英特尔</b>INTC 1.77%表示，芯片短缺可能会持续两年。拜登总统的基础设施计划设想在国内生产更多这些产品，但你不能在一夜之间打开装配线，而且仍然不能保证现在存在的整个法案会成为现实。</blockquote></p><p> In other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.</p><p><blockquote>在其他值得关注的数据中，4月份ISM非制造业指数将于周三公布。根据研究公司Briefing.com的数据，华尔街的共识是总体数字为65.0%，高于3月份的63.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.</p><p><blockquote>当然，本周最大的报告是周五的非农就业数据，分析师预计4月份将新增100万个就业岗位，而3月份为91.6万个。明天我们将对此进行更深入的探讨，除了标题数字之外，报告中还有一些值得关注的内容。敬请期待。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b665ba0fa3e07d7fc1e25ce3dd62\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>CHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...</b>A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p><p><blockquote><b>每日图表：事情变化越多...</b>几周前，我们运行了标普500指数（SPX烛台）与其50天移动平均线（蓝线）的相同图表。从那以后没有太大变化。该指数仍较50日指数保持稳定溢价，并且已经一个多月没有接近测试该指数了。50日线现在略高于4000点，今年该指数每次测试它，结果都是强劲反弹。问题是，如果市场稍微抛售并测试这个重要的技术区域，它会再次站稳吗？否则，更多的技术性抛售可能会爆发，改变这种长期模式。数据来源：标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。<i>仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Horse’s Mouth Time:</b>&nbsp;Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with&nbsp;<b>JP Morgan Chase</b>JPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon,&nbsp;<b>Merck</b>MRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote><b>马嘴时间：</b>今天可能值得关注的是《华尔街日报》的首席执行官峰会，该峰会将于今天上午开始，其中包括对<b>摩根大通</b>摩根大通0.04%首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，<b>默克</b>MRK 0.03%董事长兼首席执行官肯尼思·弗雷泽(Kenneth C.Frazier)和财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)。</blockquote></p><p> Dimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the&nbsp;Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)&nbsp;front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》表示，戴蒙将被问及有关经济反弹和市场的问题，但既然第一季度收益已成为过去，看看他们是否会向他提出任何有关银行业的问题可能会很有趣。一些分析师指出，华尔街的活动——尤其是特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)方面——在第二季度略有放缓，并想知道这是否意味着该行业在第一季度享有的炙手可热的投资银行收入可能不会那么容易本季度上涨。据《华尔街日报》报道，SPAC去年筹集了820亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Earnings Come Down The Stretch With A&nbsp;Lead:</b>&nbsp;We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&amp;P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.</p><p><blockquote><b>盈利处于领先地位：</b>我们听到很多分析师说这是一个多么棒的财报季，但看到实际数字是另一回事。这听起来怎么样？45.8%.根据研究公司Factset的数据，这是标普500目前60%的公司报告的平均盈利增长。如果该指数在剩余时间内保持在该水平或更高，这将是自2010年初经济摆脱金融危机以来最好的季度盈利增长。这也让分析师对报告期内盈利增长24%的平均预期完全落空。Factset表示，事实上，86%的公司盈利超出了分析师预期，78%的公司收入超出了分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> This all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&amp;P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.</p><p><blockquote>这一切听起来都不错，但你会听到一些反对者告诉你，盈利的大部分优势都是由股价的上涨决定的。实际上，这有点夸张，如果你遵循标普500的12个月远期市盈率，你就可以看到这一点。根据Factset的计算，目前为22，低于2021年初的近24。研究公司CFRA周一指出，在今年迄今为止的同一时间范围内，标准普尔等权重500指数上涨了16.2%（等权重意味着指数中的500家公司中的每家都被赋予固定权重，而不是指数按市值加权）。换句话说，股票上涨，而估值下跌，这是一个巧妙的伎俩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No Chips, No Ride:</b>&nbsp;Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.</p><p><blockquote><b>没有筹码，就没有游乐设施：</b>你最近开车经过汽车经销商吗？如果是这样，您可能已经注意到，除了汽车之外，一切似乎都或多或少就位了，也就是说，它们不见了。正如我们今年早些时候报道的那样，半导体行业正在经历全球范围内的大规模短缺。对于购车者来说，这可能意味着更长的等待时间和更高的价格。顺便说一句，新车并不是唯一受到短缺影响的汽车。根据全国汽车经销商协会的数据，二手车平均价格比去年上涨了12.5%。</blockquote></p><p> For automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like&nbsp;<b>General Motors</b>GM 2.48%,&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于汽车制造商来说，这意味着更广泛的销售，有些人甚至看到了创纪录的利润，因为车辆在进入销售现场之前就被售出。投资者可能需要关注以下公司<b>通用汽车</b>通用汽车2.48%，<b>福特</b>F 1.98%，以及其他制造商，了解芯片短缺可能如何影响他们的利润。游乐设施的短缺可能是利用芯片短缺的门票吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic<blockquote>共享重新开放之旅：优步、Lyft的盈利可能为大流行后的生活提供线索</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic<blockquote>共享重新开放之旅：优步、Lyft的盈利可能为大流行后的生活提供线索</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-04 22:54</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.</p><p><blockquote>在进入财报季后，过去两周股市基本上停滞不前。The<b>标普500指数</b>(SPX)周一收盘较4月中旬财报季开始时变化不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&amp;P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管迄今为止标普500公司第一季度的盈利表现令人惊叹，平均每股收益增长了40%以上。FactSet的数据显示，财报季已过半，86%的公司盈利超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> When you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?</p><p><blockquote>当你伴随着主要指数缺乏涨幅时，你必须问自己有多少好消息被定价了。我们在报告期之前就已经处于历史高点，那么现实能否与预期相匹配呢？</blockquote></p><p> Anyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这种前进的停滞并不是什么值得过度担心的事情。我们即将进入夏季，这往往是一个成交量较少的时期，但成交量较少也可能意味着好事。</blockquote></p><p> For the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies&nbsp;<b>Lyft Technologies Inc.</b>LYFT 4.39%and&nbsp;<b>Uber</b>UBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.</p><p><blockquote>对于下一步行动，投资者可能会密切关注拼车公司<b>Lyft技术公司。</b>LYFT 4.39%和<b>优步</b>UBER今天和明天将上涨3.03%，看看他们是否可以提供有关重新开放进展的见解。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Solid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>CVS和辉瑞继续稳健的报告季</b></blockquote></p><p> Before that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as&nbsp;<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%and&nbsp;<b>Pfizer</b>PFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，投资者今天上午又收到了一组可靠的盈利消息，<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%和<b>辉瑞</b>PFE 0.45%超出普遍预期并上调指引。PFE将今年的收入指引上调了18%，这相当令人印象深刻。其中一些与他们的Covid疫苗有关，但不是全部。</blockquote></p><p> Technology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>周二早些时候，科技——尤其是该集团中所谓的“FAANG”部门——似乎受到了最严重的影响。科技板块是上周SPX表现最差的板块，尽管该板块大多数“大型股”的盈利看起来稳健。与此同时，周期性板块——比如金融和能源——最近领涨。这更符合我们今年早些时候在科技进入财报季之前所看到的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Call it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权它是你想要的：一些人用“整合”这个词来描述在新闻流放缓的情况下市场缺乏方向。无方向交易似乎将延续到周二，主要股指在开盘前下跌，备受关注的10年期国债收益率回到1.6%，处于近期区间的中间位置。</blockquote></p><p> Still, commodity prices—and not just&nbsp;the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the&nbsp;<b>Bloomberg Commodity Index</b>&nbsp;($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，大宗商品价格——不仅仅是我们最近谈到的半导体——仍在上涨，随着<b>彭博商品指数</b>($BCOM)是处于多年高点的大宗商品基准之一。即使长期国债收益率保持低迷，美联储坚持其“暂时性通胀”的说法（见下文），大宗商品似乎也在考虑价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Volatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the&nbsp;<b>Cboe&nbsp;Volatility&nbsp;Index</b>&nbsp;(VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到股市面临的压力，波动性也略有上升，这并不奇怪。密切关注20级<b>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数</b>（波动率指数）。我们仅略低于该基准数字，从远期合约来看，我们似乎将继续反弹一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings Season About To Catch A&nbsp;Ride</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财报季即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features&nbsp;earnings from<b>Uber Technologies Inc.</b>UBER 3.03%and<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%,&nbsp;two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.</p><p><blockquote>周一，“重新开放”股票在一周的收益中领先，这是很合适的<b>优步技术公司。</b>优步3.03%和<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%，如果人们更多地外出，这两家公司可能会受益。LYFT预计将于今天收盘后发布报告，UBER将于明天收盘后发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司显然都很难找到满足所有新需求的司机，这是一个很好的问题。然而，这可能代价高昂，双方都必须在司机激励上花费更多。美国劳工部长告诉路透社，许多零工经济工人应该被视为雇员，这也带来了监管阻力。</blockquote></p><p> If that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种情况最终在全国范围内发生，优步和LYFT不得不将司机视为员工而不是独立承包商，这似乎将大幅增加这些公司的成本。然而，这还远未解决。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者可能想知道的是，LYFT和优步在上次缩小年度净亏损后，第一季度是否能够继续削减亏损。他们仍可能面临艰难的收入比较，因为他们所比较的2020年季度的大部分时间都发生在去年3月疫情爆发之前。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking&nbsp;<b>Peloton</b>PTON 0.71%,&nbsp;<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,&nbsp;<b>Moderna</b>MRNA 4.59%,&nbsp;<b>Square</b>SQ 2.71%, and<b>&nbsp;Roku Inc.</b>ROKU 3.81%.&nbsp; A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，未来几天的其他大型收益报告包括去年疫情爆发时许多投资者大力支持的一些公司。我们在说话<b>佩洛顿</b>PTON 0.71%，<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,<b>现代</b>MRNA 4.59%，<b>平方</b>平方2.71%，以及<b>Roku公司。</b>ROKU 3.81%。其中许多公司在2020年都取得了惊人的业绩，但可能会提前数年的需求。现在，随着经济重新开放，他们面临着解释如何实现利润以及如何保持兴奋的压力。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.</p><p><blockquote>这些股票并不一定是你可以认为昙花一现的股票。习惯于在家锻炼并购买PTON机器的人可能不会马上放弃它去健身房，或者根本不会。分析师最近告诉《巴伦周刊》，MRNA的疫苗技术还有超越新冠疫苗成功的可能性。PYPL和SQ的技术在新冠疫情之前就已经很受欢迎了，尽管疫情可能会给它们带来推动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的收益可能会揭示供应短缺和成本</b></blockquote></p><p> Getting back from the newest models to a veteran,<b>&nbsp;General Motors</b>GM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage.&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.</p><p><blockquote>从最新款回到老手，<b>通用汽车</b>通用汽车2.48%明天报告。与其他汽车公司一样，通用汽车的盈利看涨期权可以为半导体芯片短缺提供一个有趣的视角。<b>福特</b>F 1.98%上周表示，该问题对其业务造成的影响超出了此前的预期，并可能给其下半年的经营业绩带来压力。有关芯片短缺如何影响汽车制造商的更多信息，请参见下文。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.</p><p><blockquote>芯片及其他领域的一些供应短缺可能会在本周的经济数据中显现出来。周一公布的4月份ISM制造业增长率为60.7%，低于华尔街预期，低于一个月前的64.7%。供应链中断和原材料成本上升可能是导致数字下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago&nbsp;<b>Intel</b>INTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.</p><p><blockquote>美联储一直表示通胀将是暂时的，但我们将看看他们最终是否正确。几周前<b>英特尔</b>INTC 1.77%表示，芯片短缺可能会持续两年。拜登总统的基础设施计划设想在国内生产更多这些产品，但你不能在一夜之间打开装配线，而且仍然不能保证现在存在的整个法案会成为现实。</blockquote></p><p> In other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.</p><p><blockquote>在其他值得关注的数据中，4月份ISM非制造业指数将于周三公布。根据研究公司Briefing.com的数据，华尔街的共识是总体数字为65.0%，高于3月份的63.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.</p><p><blockquote>当然，本周最大的报告是周五的非农就业数据，分析师预计4月份将新增100万个就业岗位，而3月份为91.6万个。明天我们将对此进行更深入的探讨，除了标题数字之外，报告中还有一些值得关注的内容。敬请期待。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b665ba0fa3e07d7fc1e25ce3dd62\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>CHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...</b>A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p><p><blockquote><b>每日图表：事情变化越多...</b>几周前，我们运行了标普500指数（SPX烛台）与其50天移动平均线（蓝线）的相同图表。从那以后没有太大变化。该指数仍较50日指数保持稳定溢价，并且已经一个多月没有接近测试该指数了。50日线现在略高于4000点，今年该指数每次测试它，结果都是强劲反弹。问题是，如果市场稍微抛售并测试这个重要的技术区域，它会再次站稳吗？否则，更多的技术性抛售可能会爆发，改变这种长期模式。数据来源：标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。<i>仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Horse’s Mouth Time:</b>&nbsp;Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with&nbsp;<b>JP Morgan Chase</b>JPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon,&nbsp;<b>Merck</b>MRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote><b>马嘴时间：</b>今天可能值得关注的是《华尔街日报》的首席执行官峰会，该峰会将于今天上午开始，其中包括对<b>摩根大通</b>摩根大通0.04%首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，<b>默克</b>MRK 0.03%董事长兼首席执行官肯尼思·弗雷泽(Kenneth C.Frazier)和财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)。</blockquote></p><p> Dimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the&nbsp;Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)&nbsp;front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》表示，戴蒙将被问及有关经济反弹和市场的问题，但既然第一季度收益已成为过去，看看他们是否会向他提出任何有关银行业的问题可能会很有趣。一些分析师指出，华尔街的活动——尤其是特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)方面——在第二季度略有放缓，并想知道这是否意味着该行业在第一季度享有的炙手可热的投资银行收入可能不会那么容易本季度上涨。据《华尔街日报》报道，SPAC去年筹集了820亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Earnings Come Down The Stretch With A&nbsp;Lead:</b>&nbsp;We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&amp;P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.</p><p><blockquote><b>盈利处于领先地位：</b>我们听到很多分析师说这是一个多么棒的财报季，但看到实际数字是另一回事。这听起来怎么样？45.8%.根据研究公司Factset的数据，这是标普500目前60%的公司报告的平均盈利增长。如果该指数在剩余时间内保持在该水平或更高，这将是自2010年初经济摆脱金融危机以来最好的季度盈利增长。这也让分析师对报告期内盈利增长24%的平均预期完全落空。Factset表示，事实上，86%的公司盈利超出了分析师预期，78%的公司收入超出了分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> This all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&amp;P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.</p><p><blockquote>这一切听起来都不错，但你会听到一些反对者告诉你，盈利的大部分优势都是由股价的上涨决定的。实际上，这有点夸张，如果你遵循标普500的12个月远期市盈率，你就可以看到这一点。根据Factset的计算，目前为22，低于2021年初的近24。研究公司CFRA周一指出，在今年迄今为止的同一时间范围内，标准普尔等权重500指数上涨了16.2%（等权重意味着指数中的500家公司中的每家都被赋予固定权重，而不是指数按市值加权）。换句话说，股票上涨，而估值下跌，这是一个巧妙的伎俩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No Chips, No Ride:</b>&nbsp;Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.</p><p><blockquote><b>没有筹码，就没有游乐设施：</b>你最近开车经过汽车经销商吗？如果是这样，您可能已经注意到，除了汽车之外，一切似乎都或多或少就位了，也就是说，它们不见了。正如我们今年早些时候报道的那样，半导体行业正在经历全球范围内的大规模短缺。对于购车者来说，这可能意味着更长的等待时间和更高的价格。顺便说一句，新车并不是唯一受到短缺影响的汽车。根据全国汽车经销商协会的数据，二手车平均价格比去年上涨了12.5%。</blockquote></p><p> For automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like&nbsp;<b>General Motors</b>GM 2.48%,&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于汽车制造商来说，这意味着更广泛的销售，有些人甚至看到了创纪录的利润，因为车辆在进入销售现场之前就被售出。投资者可能需要关注以下公司<b>通用汽车</b>通用汽车2.48%，<b>福特</b>F 1.98%，以及其他制造商，了解芯片短缺可能如何影响他们的利润。游乐设施的短缺可能是利用芯片短缺的门票吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179044309","content_text":"After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.\nThat’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.\nWhen you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?\nAnyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.\nFor the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies Lyft Technologies Inc.LYFT 4.39%and UberUBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.\nSolid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer\nBefore that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as CVSCVS 3%and PfizerPFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.\nTechnology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.\nCall it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.\nStill, commodity prices—and not just the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index ($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.\nVolatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.\nEarnings Season About To Catch A Ride\nIt’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features earnings fromUber Technologies Inc.UBER 3.03%andLyftLYFT 4.39%, two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.\nBoth companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.\nIf that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.\nIn the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.\nIn contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking PelotonPTON 0.71%, PaypalPYPL 3.11%, ModernaMRNA 4.59%, SquareSQ 2.71%, and Roku Inc.ROKU 3.81%.  A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.\nIt’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.\nFresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs\nGetting back from the newest models to a veteran, General MotorsGM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage. FordF 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.\nSome of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.\nThe Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago IntelINTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.\nIn other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.\nOf course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.\n\nCHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nHorse’s Mouth Time: Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with JP Morgan ChaseJPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon, MerckMRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.\nDimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.\nEarnings Come Down The Stretch With A Lead: We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.\nThis all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.\nNo Chips, No Ride: Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.\nFor automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like General MotorsGM 2.48%, FordF 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101505161,"gmtCreate":1619920344853,"gmtModify":1634209130122,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ughh","listText":"Ughh","text":"Ughh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101505161","repostId":"1155857726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":102084436,"gmtCreate":1620168788025,"gmtModify":1634207377746,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm let's see what happens later&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm let's see what happens later&nbsp;","text":"Hmm let's see what happens later","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102084436","repostId":"1107772617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107772617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620139709,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107772617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107772617","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from inv","content":"<p><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote><b>有了投资，受欢迎并不是更好。</b>美国股票基金现在正从投资者那里获得大量新现金——这并不是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者可能会有不同的看法——大量现金流入是积极的。事实上，资金流动是一个逆向指标：过去美国股市在现金净流出时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><blockquote>下图总结了证据，该图绘制了过去十年中每年流入美国股票基金（开放式基金和交易所交易基金）的现金净额。请注意，自2010年以来，除了两年之外，所有年份都有净流出。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逆转</b></blockquote></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p><blockquote>流入美国股票（开放式基金和ETF）的净流量，单位：十亿</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p><blockquote>2010年至2020年期间，美国股市表现极其强劲。然而，在此期间，美国股票基金经历了7410亿美元的净流出。（数据来自TrimTabs，EPFR是Informa Financial Intelligence的一个部门。）</blockquote></p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，这一长期趋势发生了重大逆转。根据TrimTabs的数据，今年前四个月，美国股票基金获得了1423亿美元的净流入。如果这一速度持续全年，2021年将有4270亿美元的净流入——追溯到2010年至2020年总流出的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p><blockquote>去年12月的《金融评论》上发表了一项研究，对今年迄今为止的巨额资金流入持悲观态度。这项名为“ETF套利、非基本面需求和回报可预测性”的研究由亚利桑那大学的David Brown、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Shaun William Davies和犹他大学的Matthew Ringgenberg进行。研究人员发现，平均而言，在这些极端资金流动后的一年内，流出最多的ETF的表现优于流入最多的ETF。</blockquote></p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p><blockquote>另一项得出类似结论的学术研究自一月份以来一直在流传。这项名为“ETF领域注意力的竞争”的研究由俄亥俄州立大学的Itzhak Ben-David和Byungwook Kim、瑞士卢加诺大学的Francesco Franzoni和维拉诺瓦大学的Rabih Moussawi进行。研究人员重点关注专门的ETF，这些ETF是为了利用投资者时尚和市场趋势而创建的，通常在推出后不久就会获得大量现金流入。他们发现，这些ETF在推出后的前五年，经风险调整后平均每年落后市场5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p><blockquote>业绩和资金流动之间的微妙关系也在附表中显而易见。第一个列出了年初至今回报最好的10只ETF。第二张表列出了净流入最多的10只ETF。（返回数据来自FactSet；流量数据来自CFRA研究）。</blockquote></p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，第一个表中的基金都没有出现在第二个表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 22:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote><b>有了投资，受欢迎并不是更好。</b>美国股票基金现在正从投资者那里获得大量新现金——这并不是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者可能会有不同的看法——大量现金流入是积极的。事实上，资金流动是一个逆向指标：过去美国股市在现金净流出时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><blockquote>下图总结了证据，该图绘制了过去十年中每年流入美国股票基金（开放式基金和交易所交易基金）的现金净额。请注意，自2010年以来，除了两年之外，所有年份都有净流出。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逆转</b></blockquote></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p><blockquote>流入美国股票（开放式基金和ETF）的净流量，单位：十亿</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p><blockquote>2010年至2020年期间，美国股市表现极其强劲。然而，在此期间，美国股票基金经历了7410亿美元的净流出。（数据来自TrimTabs，EPFR是Informa Financial Intelligence的一个部门。）</blockquote></p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，这一长期趋势发生了重大逆转。根据TrimTabs的数据，今年前四个月，美国股票基金获得了1423亿美元的净流入。如果这一速度持续全年，2021年将有4270亿美元的净流入——追溯到2010年至2020年总流出的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p><blockquote>去年12月的《金融评论》上发表了一项研究，对今年迄今为止的巨额资金流入持悲观态度。这项名为“ETF套利、非基本面需求和回报可预测性”的研究由亚利桑那大学的David Brown、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Shaun William Davies和犹他大学的Matthew Ringgenberg进行。研究人员发现，平均而言，在这些极端资金流动后的一年内，流出最多的ETF的表现优于流入最多的ETF。</blockquote></p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p><blockquote>另一项得出类似结论的学术研究自一月份以来一直在流传。这项名为“ETF领域注意力的竞争”的研究由俄亥俄州立大学的Itzhak Ben-David和Byungwook Kim、瑞士卢加诺大学的Francesco Franzoni和维拉诺瓦大学的Rabih Moussawi进行。研究人员重点关注专门的ETF，这些ETF是为了利用投资者时尚和市场趋势而创建的，通常在推出后不久就会获得大量现金流入。他们发现，这些ETF在推出后的前五年，经风险调整后平均每年落后市场5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p><blockquote>业绩和资金流动之间的微妙关系也在附表中显而易见。第一个列出了年初至今回报最好的10只ETF。第二张表列出了净流入最多的10只ETF。（返回数据来自FactSet；流量数据来自CFRA研究）。</blockquote></p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，第一个表中的基金都没有出现在第二个表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107772617","content_text":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.ReversalNet flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billionsThis 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102085762,"gmtCreate":1620168746156,"gmtModify":1634207378811,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102085762","repostId":"1179044309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179044309","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1620140053,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179044309?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic<blockquote>共享重新开放之旅：优步、Lyft的盈利可能为大流行后的生活提供线索</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179044309","media":"Benzinga","summary":"After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The S&P 5","content":"<p>After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.</p><p><blockquote>在进入财报季后，过去两周股市基本上停滞不前。The<b>标普500指数</b>(SPX)周一收盘较4月中旬财报季开始时变化不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&amp;P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管迄今为止标普500公司第一季度的盈利表现令人惊叹，平均每股收益增长了40%以上。FactSet的数据显示，财报季已过半，86%的公司盈利超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> When you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?</p><p><blockquote>当你伴随着主要指数缺乏涨幅时，你必须问自己有多少好消息被定价了。我们在报告期之前就已经处于历史高点，那么现实能否与预期相匹配呢？</blockquote></p><p> Anyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这种前进的停滞并不是什么值得过度担心的事情。我们即将进入夏季，这往往是一个成交量较少的时期，但成交量较少也可能意味着好事。</blockquote></p><p> For the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies&nbsp;<b>Lyft Technologies Inc.</b>LYFT 4.39%and&nbsp;<b>Uber</b>UBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.</p><p><blockquote>对于下一步行动，投资者可能会密切关注拼车公司<b>Lyft技术公司。</b>LYFT 4.39%和<b>优步</b>UBER今天和明天将上涨3.03%，看看他们是否可以提供有关重新开放进展的见解。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Solid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>CVS和辉瑞继续稳健的报告季</b></blockquote></p><p> Before that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as&nbsp;<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%and&nbsp;<b>Pfizer</b>PFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，投资者今天上午又收到了一组可靠的盈利消息，<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%和<b>辉瑞</b>PFE 0.45%超出普遍预期并上调指引。PFE将今年的收入指引上调了18%，这相当令人印象深刻。其中一些与他们的Covid疫苗有关，但不是全部。</blockquote></p><p> Technology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>周二早些时候，科技——尤其是该集团中所谓的“FAANG”部门——似乎受到了最严重的影响。科技板块是上周SPX表现最差的板块，尽管该板块大多数“大型股”的盈利看起来稳健。与此同时，周期性板块——比如金融和能源——最近领涨。这更符合我们今年早些时候在科技进入财报季之前所看到的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Call it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权它是你想要的：一些人用“整合”这个词来描述在新闻流放缓的情况下市场缺乏方向。无方向交易似乎将延续到周二，主要股指在开盘前下跌，备受关注的10年期国债收益率回到1.6%，处于近期区间的中间位置。</blockquote></p><p> Still, commodity prices—and not just&nbsp;the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the&nbsp;<b>Bloomberg Commodity Index</b>&nbsp;($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，大宗商品价格——不仅仅是我们最近谈到的半导体——仍在上涨，随着<b>彭博商品指数</b>($BCOM)是处于多年高点的大宗商品基准之一。即使长期国债收益率保持低迷，美联储坚持其“暂时性通胀”的说法（见下文），大宗商品似乎也在考虑价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Volatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the&nbsp;<b>Cboe&nbsp;Volatility&nbsp;Index</b>&nbsp;(VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到股市面临的压力，波动性也略有上升，这并不奇怪。密切关注20级<b>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数</b>（波动率指数）。我们仅略低于该基准数字，从远期合约来看，我们似乎将继续反弹一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings Season About To Catch A&nbsp;Ride</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财报季即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features&nbsp;earnings from<b>Uber Technologies Inc.</b>UBER 3.03%and<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%,&nbsp;two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.</p><p><blockquote>周一，“重新开放”股票在一周的收益中领先，这是很合适的<b>优步技术公司。</b>优步3.03%和<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%，如果人们更多地外出，这两家公司可能会受益。LYFT预计将于今天收盘后发布报告，UBER将于明天收盘后发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司显然都很难找到满足所有新需求的司机，这是一个很好的问题。然而，这可能代价高昂，双方都必须在司机激励上花费更多。美国劳工部长告诉路透社，许多零工经济工人应该被视为雇员，这也带来了监管阻力。</blockquote></p><p> If that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种情况最终在全国范围内发生，优步和LYFT不得不将司机视为员工而不是独立承包商，这似乎将大幅增加这些公司的成本。然而，这还远未解决。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者可能想知道的是，LYFT和优步在上次缩小年度净亏损后，第一季度是否能够继续削减亏损。他们仍可能面临艰难的收入比较，因为他们所比较的2020年季度的大部分时间都发生在去年3月疫情爆发之前。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking&nbsp;<b>Peloton</b>PTON 0.71%,&nbsp;<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,&nbsp;<b>Moderna</b>MRNA 4.59%,&nbsp;<b>Square</b>SQ 2.71%, and<b>&nbsp;Roku Inc.</b>ROKU 3.81%.&nbsp; A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，未来几天的其他大型收益报告包括去年疫情爆发时许多投资者大力支持的一些公司。我们在说话<b>佩洛顿</b>PTON 0.71%，<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,<b>现代</b>MRNA 4.59%，<b>平方</b>平方2.71%，以及<b>Roku公司。</b>ROKU 3.81%。其中许多公司在2020年都取得了惊人的业绩，但可能会提前数年的需求。现在，随着经济重新开放，他们面临着解释如何实现利润以及如何保持兴奋的压力。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.</p><p><blockquote>这些股票并不一定是你可以认为昙花一现的股票。习惯于在家锻炼并购买PTON机器的人可能不会马上放弃它去健身房，或者根本不会。分析师最近告诉《巴伦周刊》，MRNA的疫苗技术还有超越新冠疫苗成功的可能性。PYPL和SQ的技术在新冠疫情之前就已经很受欢迎了，尽管疫情可能会给它们带来推动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的收益可能会揭示供应短缺和成本</b></blockquote></p><p> Getting back from the newest models to a veteran,<b>&nbsp;General Motors</b>GM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage.&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.</p><p><blockquote>从最新款回到老手，<b>通用汽车</b>通用汽车2.48%明天报告。与其他汽车公司一样，通用汽车的盈利看涨期权可以为半导体芯片短缺提供一个有趣的视角。<b>福特</b>F 1.98%上周表示，该问题对其业务造成的影响超出了此前的预期，并可能给其下半年的经营业绩带来压力。有关芯片短缺如何影响汽车制造商的更多信息，请参见下文。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.</p><p><blockquote>芯片及其他领域的一些供应短缺可能会在本周的经济数据中显现出来。周一公布的4月份ISM制造业增长率为60.7%，低于华尔街预期，低于一个月前的64.7%。供应链中断和原材料成本上升可能是导致数字下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago&nbsp;<b>Intel</b>INTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.</p><p><blockquote>美联储一直表示通胀将是暂时的，但我们将看看他们最终是否正确。几周前<b>英特尔</b>INTC 1.77%表示，芯片短缺可能会持续两年。拜登总统的基础设施计划设想在国内生产更多这些产品，但你不能在一夜之间打开装配线，而且仍然不能保证现在存在的整个法案会成为现实。</blockquote></p><p> In other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.</p><p><blockquote>在其他值得关注的数据中，4月份ISM非制造业指数将于周三公布。根据研究公司Briefing.com的数据，华尔街的共识是总体数字为65.0%，高于3月份的63.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.</p><p><blockquote>当然，本周最大的报告是周五的非农就业数据，分析师预计4月份将新增100万个就业岗位，而3月份为91.6万个。明天我们将对此进行更深入的探讨，除了标题数字之外，报告中还有一些值得关注的内容。敬请期待。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b665ba0fa3e07d7fc1e25ce3dd62\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>CHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...</b>A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p><p><blockquote><b>每日图表：事情变化越多...</b>几周前，我们运行了标普500指数（SPX烛台）与其50天移动平均线（蓝线）的相同图表。从那以后没有太大变化。该指数仍较50日指数保持稳定溢价，并且已经一个多月没有接近测试该指数了。50日线现在略高于4000点，今年该指数每次测试它，结果都是强劲反弹。问题是，如果市场稍微抛售并测试这个重要的技术区域，它会再次站稳吗？否则，更多的技术性抛售可能会爆发，改变这种长期模式。数据来源：标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。<i>仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Horse’s Mouth Time:</b>&nbsp;Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with&nbsp;<b>JP Morgan Chase</b>JPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon,&nbsp;<b>Merck</b>MRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote><b>马嘴时间：</b>今天可能值得关注的是《华尔街日报》的首席执行官峰会，该峰会将于今天上午开始，其中包括对<b>摩根大通</b>摩根大通0.04%首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，<b>默克</b>MRK 0.03%董事长兼首席执行官肯尼思·弗雷泽(Kenneth C.Frazier)和财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)。</blockquote></p><p> Dimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the&nbsp;Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)&nbsp;front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》表示，戴蒙将被问及有关经济反弹和市场的问题，但既然第一季度收益已成为过去，看看他们是否会向他提出任何有关银行业的问题可能会很有趣。一些分析师指出，华尔街的活动——尤其是特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)方面——在第二季度略有放缓，并想知道这是否意味着该行业在第一季度享有的炙手可热的投资银行收入可能不会那么容易本季度上涨。据《华尔街日报》报道，SPAC去年筹集了820亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Earnings Come Down The Stretch With A&nbsp;Lead:</b>&nbsp;We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&amp;P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.</p><p><blockquote><b>盈利处于领先地位：</b>我们听到很多分析师说这是一个多么棒的财报季，但看到实际数字是另一回事。这听起来怎么样？45.8%.根据研究公司Factset的数据，这是标普500目前60%的公司报告的平均盈利增长。如果该指数在剩余时间内保持在该水平或更高，这将是自2010年初经济摆脱金融危机以来最好的季度盈利增长。这也让分析师对报告期内盈利增长24%的平均预期完全落空。Factset表示，事实上，86%的公司盈利超出了分析师预期，78%的公司收入超出了分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> This all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&amp;P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.</p><p><blockquote>这一切听起来都不错，但你会听到一些反对者告诉你，盈利的大部分优势都是由股价的上涨决定的。实际上，这有点夸张，如果你遵循标普500的12个月远期市盈率，你就可以看到这一点。根据Factset的计算，目前为22，低于2021年初的近24。研究公司CFRA周一指出，在今年迄今为止的同一时间范围内，标准普尔等权重500指数上涨了16.2%（等权重意味着指数中的500家公司中的每家都被赋予固定权重，而不是指数按市值加权）。换句话说，股票上涨，而估值下跌，这是一个巧妙的伎俩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No Chips, No Ride:</b>&nbsp;Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.</p><p><blockquote><b>没有筹码，就没有游乐设施：</b>你最近开车经过汽车经销商吗？如果是这样，您可能已经注意到，除了汽车之外，一切似乎都或多或少就位了，也就是说，它们不见了。正如我们今年早些时候报道的那样，半导体行业正在经历全球范围内的大规模短缺。对于购车者来说，这可能意味着更长的等待时间和更高的价格。顺便说一句，新车并不是唯一受到短缺影响的汽车。根据全国汽车经销商协会的数据，二手车平均价格比去年上涨了12.5%。</blockquote></p><p> For automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like&nbsp;<b>General Motors</b>GM 2.48%,&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于汽车制造商来说，这意味着更广泛的销售，有些人甚至看到了创纪录的利润，因为车辆在进入销售现场之前就被售出。投资者可能需要关注以下公司<b>通用汽车</b>通用汽车2.48%，<b>福特</b>F 1.98%，以及其他制造商，了解芯片短缺可能如何影响他们的利润。游乐设施的短缺可能是利用芯片短缺的门票吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic<blockquote>共享重新开放之旅：优步、Lyft的盈利可能为大流行后的生活提供线索</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSharing A Ride To The Reopening: Uber, Lyft Earnings Could Offer Hints To Life Beyond The Pandemic<blockquote>共享重新开放之旅：优步、Lyft的盈利可能为大流行后的生活提供线索</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-04 22:54</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.</p><p><blockquote>在进入财报季后，过去两周股市基本上停滞不前。The<b>标普500指数</b>(SPX)周一收盘较4月中旬财报季开始时变化不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> That’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&amp;P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管迄今为止标普500公司第一季度的盈利表现令人惊叹，平均每股收益增长了40%以上。FactSet的数据显示，财报季已过半，86%的公司盈利超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> When you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?</p><p><blockquote>当你伴随着主要指数缺乏涨幅时，你必须问自己有多少好消息被定价了。我们在报告期之前就已经处于历史高点，那么现实能否与预期相匹配呢？</blockquote></p><p> Anyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这种前进的停滞并不是什么值得过度担心的事情。我们即将进入夏季，这往往是一个成交量较少的时期，但成交量较少也可能意味着好事。</blockquote></p><p> For the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies&nbsp;<b>Lyft Technologies Inc.</b>LYFT 4.39%and&nbsp;<b>Uber</b>UBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.</p><p><blockquote>对于下一步行动，投资者可能会密切关注拼车公司<b>Lyft技术公司。</b>LYFT 4.39%和<b>优步</b>UBER今天和明天将上涨3.03%，看看他们是否可以提供有关重新开放进展的见解。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Solid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>CVS和辉瑞继续稳健的报告季</b></blockquote></p><p> Before that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as&nbsp;<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%and&nbsp;<b>Pfizer</b>PFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.</p><p><blockquote>在此之前，投资者今天上午又收到了一组可靠的盈利消息，<b>CVS</b>CVS 3%和<b>辉瑞</b>PFE 0.45%超出普遍预期并上调指引。PFE将今年的收入指引上调了18%，这相当令人印象深刻。其中一些与他们的Covid疫苗有关，但不是全部。</blockquote></p><p> Technology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>周二早些时候，科技——尤其是该集团中所谓的“FAANG”部门——似乎受到了最严重的影响。科技板块是上周SPX表现最差的板块，尽管该板块大多数“大型股”的盈利看起来稳健。与此同时，周期性板块——比如金融和能源——最近领涨。这更符合我们今年早些时候在科技进入财报季之前所看到的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Call it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权它是你想要的：一些人用“整合”这个词来描述在新闻流放缓的情况下市场缺乏方向。无方向交易似乎将延续到周二，主要股指在开盘前下跌，备受关注的10年期国债收益率回到1.6%，处于近期区间的中间位置。</blockquote></p><p> Still, commodity prices—and not just&nbsp;the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the&nbsp;<b>Bloomberg Commodity Index</b>&nbsp;($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，大宗商品价格——不仅仅是我们最近谈到的半导体——仍在上涨，随着<b>彭博商品指数</b>($BCOM)是处于多年高点的大宗商品基准之一。即使长期国债收益率保持低迷，美联储坚持其“暂时性通胀”的说法（见下文），大宗商品似乎也在考虑价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Volatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the&nbsp;<b>Cboe&nbsp;Volatility&nbsp;Index</b>&nbsp;(VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到股市面临的压力，波动性也略有上升，这并不奇怪。密切关注20级<b>芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数</b>（波动率指数）。我们仅略低于该基准数字，从远期合约来看，我们似乎将继续反弹一段时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings Season About To Catch A&nbsp;Ride</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财报季即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features&nbsp;earnings from<b>Uber Technologies Inc.</b>UBER 3.03%and<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%,&nbsp;two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.</p><p><blockquote>周一，“重新开放”股票在一周的收益中领先，这是很合适的<b>优步技术公司。</b>优步3.03%和<b>Lyft</b>LYFT 4.39%，如果人们更多地外出，这两家公司可能会受益。LYFT预计将于今天收盘后发布报告，UBER将于明天收盘后发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司显然都很难找到满足所有新需求的司机，这是一个很好的问题。然而，这可能代价高昂，双方都必须在司机激励上花费更多。美国劳工部长告诉路透社，许多零工经济工人应该被视为雇员，这也带来了监管阻力。</blockquote></p><p> If that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.</p><p><blockquote>如果这种情况最终在全国范围内发生，优步和LYFT不得不将司机视为员工而不是独立承包商，这似乎将大幅增加这些公司的成本。然而，这还远未解决。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者可能想知道的是，LYFT和优步在上次缩小年度净亏损后，第一季度是否能够继续削减亏损。他们仍可能面临艰难的收入比较，因为他们所比较的2020年季度的大部分时间都发生在去年3月疫情爆发之前。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking&nbsp;<b>Peloton</b>PTON 0.71%,&nbsp;<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,&nbsp;<b>Moderna</b>MRNA 4.59%,&nbsp;<b>Square</b>SQ 2.71%, and<b>&nbsp;Roku Inc.</b>ROKU 3.81%.&nbsp; A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，未来几天的其他大型收益报告包括去年疫情爆发时许多投资者大力支持的一些公司。我们在说话<b>佩洛顿</b>PTON 0.71%，<b>Paypal</b>PYPL 3.11%,<b>现代</b>MRNA 4.59%，<b>平方</b>平方2.71%，以及<b>Roku公司。</b>ROKU 3.81%。其中许多公司在2020年都取得了惊人的业绩，但可能会提前数年的需求。现在，随着经济重新开放，他们面临着解释如何实现利润以及如何保持兴奋的压力。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.</p><p><blockquote>这些股票并不一定是你可以认为昙花一现的股票。习惯于在家锻炼并购买PTON机器的人可能不会马上放弃它去健身房，或者根本不会。分析师最近告诉《巴伦周刊》，MRNA的疫苗技术还有超越新冠疫苗成功的可能性。PYPL和SQ的技术在新冠疫情之前就已经很受欢迎了，尽管疫情可能会给它们带来推动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的收益可能会揭示供应短缺和成本</b></blockquote></p><p> Getting back from the newest models to a veteran,<b>&nbsp;General Motors</b>GM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage.&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.</p><p><blockquote>从最新款回到老手，<b>通用汽车</b>通用汽车2.48%明天报告。与其他汽车公司一样，通用汽车的盈利看涨期权可以为半导体芯片短缺提供一个有趣的视角。<b>福特</b>F 1.98%上周表示，该问题对其业务造成的影响超出了此前的预期，并可能给其下半年的经营业绩带来压力。有关芯片短缺如何影响汽车制造商的更多信息，请参见下文。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.</p><p><blockquote>芯片及其他领域的一些供应短缺可能会在本周的经济数据中显现出来。周一公布的4月份ISM制造业增长率为60.7%，低于华尔街预期，低于一个月前的64.7%。供应链中断和原材料成本上升可能是导致数字下降的原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago&nbsp;<b>Intel</b>INTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.</p><p><blockquote>美联储一直表示通胀将是暂时的，但我们将看看他们最终是否正确。几周前<b>英特尔</b>INTC 1.77%表示，芯片短缺可能会持续两年。拜登总统的基础设施计划设想在国内生产更多这些产品，但你不能在一夜之间打开装配线，而且仍然不能保证现在存在的整个法案会成为现实。</blockquote></p><p> In other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.</p><p><blockquote>在其他值得关注的数据中，4月份ISM非制造业指数将于周三公布。根据研究公司Briefing.com的数据，华尔街的共识是总体数字为65.0%，高于3月份的63.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.</p><p><blockquote>当然，本周最大的报告是周五的非农就业数据，分析师预计4月份将新增100万个就业岗位，而3月份为91.6万个。明天我们将对此进行更深入的探讨，除了标题数字之外，报告中还有一些值得关注的内容。敬请期待。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da99b665ba0fa3e07d7fc1e25ce3dd62\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"412\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>CHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...</b>A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p><p><blockquote><b>每日图表：事情变化越多...</b>几周前，我们运行了标普500指数（SPX烛台）与其50天移动平均线（蓝线）的相同图表。从那以后没有太大变化。该指数仍较50日指数保持稳定溢价，并且已经一个多月没有接近测试该指数了。50日线现在略高于4000点，今年该指数每次测试它，结果都是强劲反弹。问题是，如果市场稍微抛售并测试这个重要的技术区域，它会再次站稳吗？否则，更多的技术性抛售可能会爆发，改变这种长期模式。数据来源：标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®平台。<i>仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Horse’s Mouth Time:</b>&nbsp;Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with&nbsp;<b>JP Morgan Chase</b>JPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon,&nbsp;<b>Merck</b>MRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote><b>马嘴时间：</b>今天可能值得关注的是《华尔街日报》的首席执行官峰会，该峰会将于今天上午开始，其中包括对<b>摩根大通</b>摩根大通0.04%首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，<b>默克</b>MRK 0.03%董事长兼首席执行官肯尼思·弗雷泽(Kenneth C.Frazier)和财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)。</blockquote></p><p> Dimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the&nbsp;Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)&nbsp;front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》表示，戴蒙将被问及有关经济反弹和市场的问题，但既然第一季度收益已成为过去，看看他们是否会向他提出任何有关银行业的问题可能会很有趣。一些分析师指出，华尔街的活动——尤其是特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)方面——在第二季度略有放缓，并想知道这是否意味着该行业在第一季度享有的炙手可热的投资银行收入可能不会那么容易本季度上涨。据《华尔街日报》报道，SPAC去年筹集了820亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Earnings Come Down The Stretch With A&nbsp;Lead:</b>&nbsp;We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&amp;P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.</p><p><blockquote><b>盈利处于领先地位：</b>我们听到很多分析师说这是一个多么棒的财报季，但看到实际数字是另一回事。这听起来怎么样？45.8%.根据研究公司Factset的数据，这是标普500目前60%的公司报告的平均盈利增长。如果该指数在剩余时间内保持在该水平或更高，这将是自2010年初经济摆脱金融危机以来最好的季度盈利增长。这也让分析师对报告期内盈利增长24%的平均预期完全落空。Factset表示，事实上，86%的公司盈利超出了分析师预期，78%的公司收入超出了分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> This all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&amp;P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&amp;P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.</p><p><blockquote>这一切听起来都不错，但你会听到一些反对者告诉你，盈利的大部分优势都是由股价的上涨决定的。实际上，这有点夸张，如果你遵循标普500的12个月远期市盈率，你就可以看到这一点。根据Factset的计算，目前为22，低于2021年初的近24。研究公司CFRA周一指出，在今年迄今为止的同一时间范围内，标准普尔等权重500指数上涨了16.2%（等权重意味着指数中的500家公司中的每家都被赋予固定权重，而不是指数按市值加权）。换句话说，股票上涨，而估值下跌，这是一个巧妙的伎俩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>No Chips, No Ride:</b>&nbsp;Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.</p><p><blockquote><b>没有筹码，就没有游乐设施：</b>你最近开车经过汽车经销商吗？如果是这样，您可能已经注意到，除了汽车之外，一切似乎都或多或少就位了，也就是说，它们不见了。正如我们今年早些时候报道的那样，半导体行业正在经历全球范围内的大规模短缺。对于购车者来说，这可能意味着更长的等待时间和更高的价格。顺便说一句，新车并不是唯一受到短缺影响的汽车。根据全国汽车经销商协会的数据，二手车平均价格比去年上涨了12.5%。</blockquote></p><p> For automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like&nbsp;<b>General Motors</b>GM 2.48%,&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>F 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于汽车制造商来说，这意味着更广泛的销售，有些人甚至看到了创纪录的利润，因为车辆在进入销售现场之前就被售出。投资者可能需要关注以下公司<b>通用汽车</b>通用汽车2.48%，<b>福特</b>F 1.98%，以及其他制造商，了解芯片短缺可能如何影响他们的利润。游乐设施的短缺可能是利用芯片短缺的门票吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179044309","content_text":"After racing into earnings season, stocks have basically treaded water the last two weeks. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished Monday less than 1% changed from mid-April when reporting season began.\nThat’s despite an amazing Q1 earnings performance by S&P 500 companies so far, with average earnings per share up more than 40%. With more than half of the reporting season done, 86% of companies have beaten earnings expectations, according to FactSet.\nWhen you accompany that with the lack of gains in major indices, you have to ask yourself how much of the good news was priced in. We were already at all-time highs ahead of the reporting period, so can the reality match the expectations?\nAnyway, this stall in forward progress isn’t something to be overly concerned about. We’re heading into summer, which tends to be a time of lighter volumes, but lighter volumes can mean good things as well.\nFor the next act, investors might have their eyes peeled on ride-sharing companies Lyft Technologies Inc.LYFT 4.39%and UberUBER 3.03%today and tomorrow to see if they can provide insight into reopening progress.\nSolid Reporting Season Continues With CVS, Pfizer\nBefore that, investors got another set of solid earnings news this morning as CVSCVS 3%and PfizerPFE 0.45%outran consensus expectations and raised guidance. PFE raised revenue guidance by 18% for the year, which is pretty impressive. Some of that is related to their Covid vaccine, but not all of it.\nTechnology—particularly the so-called “FAANG” sector of that group—appeared to be taking the worst of it early Tuesday. The Tech sector is by far the worst SPX performer over the last week even though earnings from most of the “mega-caps” in that sector looked solid. At the same time, cyclical sectors—think Financials and Energy—have led gains recently. It’s more along the lines of what we were seeing earlier this year before Tech made a move going into earnings season.\nCall it what you want: “Consolidation” is a word some people are using to describe this lack of direction in the markets amid a slowing news flow. The directionless trading appears to be extending into Tuesday, with major indices losing ground ahead of the opening bell and the closely-watched 10-year Treasury yield back at 1.6%, right in the middle of its recent range.\nStill, commodity prices—and not just the semiconductors we’ve talked about recently—are on the rise, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index ($BCOM) among those commodity benchmarks sitting on multi-year highs. Even if long-dated Treasury yields remain muted and the Fed sticks to its narrative of “transitory inflation” (see more below), commodities seem to be factoring in higher prices.\nVolatility is up slightly, too, not surprising considering the pressure on stocks. Keep an eye on the 20 level for the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX). We’re only slightly below that benchmark figure, and looking at forward contracts, the message looks like we’ll continue to bounce around for a while.\nEarnings Season About To Catch A Ride\nIt’s kind of fitting that “reopening” stocks led the way Monday in a week that features earnings fromUber Technologies Inc.UBER 3.03%andLyftLYFT 4.39%, two companies that would likely stand to benefit if people are getting out more. LYFT is expected to report today after the close and UBER is up to bat tomorrow after the close.\nBoth companies are apparently having some trouble finding drivers to meet all the new demand, kind of a good problem to have. However, it could be costly, with both having to spend more on driver incentives. There’s also a regulatory headwind after the U.S. Labor secretary told Reuters that many gig economy workers should be treated as employees.\nIf that ends up happening nationwide and UBER and LYFT have to treat drivers as employees instead of independent contractors, it seems that would substantially increase costs for these companies. However, that’s far from settled yet.\nIn the meantime, what investors probably want to know is whether LYFT and UBER were able to continue cutting their losses in Q1 after shrinking their annual net losses last time out. They’re still going to likely face tough comparisons on revenue because a lot of the 2020 quarter they’re comparing to took place before the pandemic hit last March.\nIn contrast, other big earnings reports over the coming days include some of the companies many investors embraced big time last year when the pandemic hit. We’re talking PelotonPTON 0.71%, PaypalPYPL 3.11%, ModernaMRNA 4.59%, SquareSQ 2.71%, and Roku Inc.ROKU 3.81%.  A lot of these companies had an amazing performance in 2020, but might have pulled forward years of demand. Now, as the economy reopens, they face pressure to explain how they’re going to drive toward profits and how they can keep the excitement going.\nIt’s not like these are necessarily stocks you can consider flash in the pans. People who got used to exercising at home and invested in a PTON machine probably aren’t going to abandon it for the gym right away, or necessarily at all. And MRNA’s vaccine technology has possibilities beyond the success of their Covid vaccine, analysts recently told Barron’s. PYPL and SQ’s technology was already in demand before Covid, though the pandemic might have given them a boost.\nFresh Earnings Could Cast Light On Supply Shortages, Costs\nGetting back from the newest models to a veteran, General MotorsGM 2.48%reports tomorrow. Like other car companies, GM’s earnings call could offer an interesting perspective on the semiconductor chip shortage. FordF 1.98%said last week the problem is taking a greater toll on its business than previously expected and could put pressure on its operating results in the second half of the year. For more on how the chip shortage is affecting car makers, see below.\nSome of the supply shortages in chips and beyond might be playing out in the economic data this week. ISM manufacturing for April released on Monday came in below Wall Street’s expectations at 60.7%, down from 64.7% a month earlier. Supply chain disruptions and higher raw material costs might have played into the lower number.\nThe Fed has been saying inflation will be transitory, but we’ll see if they end up being right. A couple of weeks ago IntelINTC 1.77%said the chip shortage could last two years. President Biden’s infrastructure plan envisions more domestic production of these products, but you can’t turn on the assembly lines overnight, and there’s still no guarantee the entire bill as it exists now will become reality.\nIn other data to watch, the ISM non-manufacturing index for April is due Wednesday. Consensus on Wall Street is for a headline figure of 65.0%, up from 63.7% in March, according to research firm Briefing.com.\nOf course, the biggest report this week is Friday’s non-farm payrolls, where analysts expect a cool million new jobs created in April vs. 916,000 in March. We’ll dig into that a little more tomorrow, with some things worth watching in the report beyond that headline number. Stay tuned.\n\nCHART OF THE DAY:THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...A few weeks ago we ran this same chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) vs. its 50-day moving average (blue line). Not much has changed since then. The index still holds a firm premium to the 50-day, and hasn’t come close to testing it in over a month. The 50-day is now just above 4000, and every time this year the index tested it, the result was a solid rebound. The question is, if the market sells off a bit and tests this important technical area, will it hold again? If not, more technical selling could break out, changing this long-running pattern. Data Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices.Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nHorse’s Mouth Time: Something that might be worth paying attention to today is the Wall Street Journal’s CEO summit, which starts this morning and features interviews with JP Morgan ChaseJPM 0.04%CEO Jamie Dimon, MerckMRK 0.03%Chairman and CEO Kenneth C. Frazier, and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.\nDimon’s going to be asked about the economic rebound and the markets, the WSJ said, but it might be interesting to see if they ask him any questions about the banking industry now that Q1 earnings are in the rearview mirror. Some analysts note that activity on Wall Street—especially on the Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) front—has slowed down slightly in Q2, and wonder if that means the sizzling investment banking revenues enjoyed by the industry in Q1 might not be as easy to scoop up this quarter. SPACs raised $82 billion last year, the WSJ reported.\nEarnings Come Down The Stretch With A Lead: We’ve heard a lot of analysts say what a great earnings season it’s been, but it’s another thing to see the actual number plugged in. How does this sound? 45.8%. That’s the average S&P 500 earnings growth with 60% of companies now reporting, according to research firm Factset. If it remains there or higher for the rest of the way, it will be the best earnings growth for a quarter since the economy was emerging from the financial crisis in early 2010. It also leaves analysts’ average estimate of 24% earnings growth going into the reporting period completely in the dust. In fact, 86% of companies are beating analyst estimates on earnings, and 78% on revenue, Factset says.\nThis all sounds good, but you’ll hear some naysayers tell you most of the strength in earnings was built into stock prices going in. Actually, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, and you can see that if you follow the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500. It’s now at 22, by Factset’s reckoning, and that’s down from nearly 24 at the start of 2021. Over the same year-to-date time frame, the S&P Equal Weight 500 jumped 16.2%, research firm CFRA noted Monday (equal weight means each of the 500 companies in the index is given a fixed weight instead of the index being weighted by market cap). In other words, stocks have risen while valuations fell, which is a neat trick.\nNo Chips, No Ride: Have you driven by a car dealership lately? If so, you may have noticed that everything seems more or less in place, except for the cars, that is—they’re missing. As we reported earlier this year, the semiconductor sector is undergoing a massive worldwide shortage. For car buyers, this may mean longer waits and higher prices. And by the way, new cars aren’t the only ones impacted by the shortage. The average price of used cars jumped 12.5% over the last year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association.\nFor automakers, however, this means wider sales, some even seeing record profits as vehicles are sold before they make it to the sales lot. Investors might want to keep an eye on companies like General MotorsGM 2.48%, FordF 1.98%, and other manufacturers to see how the chip shortage may be impacting their bottom lines. Might the shortage in rides be a ticket to ride the chip shortage to the upside?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177713277,"gmtCreate":1627261426399,"gmtModify":1633766802490,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking good","listText":"Looking good","text":"Looking good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177713277","repostId":"1188501846","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188501846","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627261010,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188501846?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Housing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188501846","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafro","content":"<p><div> The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the U.S. Census BureauandDepartment of Housing and Urban Development found single‐family housing ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国房地产市场似乎正处于不间断的上升状态。美国人口普查局和住房和城市发展部的最新数据发现单户住宅...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Housing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHousing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the U.S. Census BureauandDepartment of Housing and Urban Development found single‐family housing ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国房地产市场似乎正处于不间断的上升状态。美国人口普查局和住房和城市发展部的最新数据发现单户住宅...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FMCC":"房地美","FNMA":"房利美"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188501846","content_text":"The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the U.S. Census BureauandDepartment of Housing and Urban Development found single‐family housing starts in June totaled 1.16 million, 6.3% higher than the revised May figure of 1 million.\nOther new data reports from RE/MAX LLCRMAX 0.74%saw home sales up 14.2% from May to June, the largest month-over-month increase since the company began tracking this data 13 years ago, while June’s median sales price of $336,000 was a new record peak.\nTo understand where the housing market is headed, Benzinga spoke with one of the nation’s most prominent housing-focused economists,Dr. Anthony B. Sanders,distinguished professor of real estate finance at George Mason Universityand director and head of asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities research at Deutsche Bank AGDB 1.26%in New York City.\nSanders’ input has been sought in Congressional hearings and by the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.\nQ: What role does housing play in today's U.S. economy?\nSanders:Housing has always been important in the U.S. economy, but less so today than during the 2000s.\nDuring the 2000s, housing was an easy way to grow GDP (in the same way China builds massive housing projects to boost GDP). But since the housing bubble burst in 2008, leading to the financial crisis, the federal government could not rely on an easy GDP approach since housing is a consumption good, not an investment good. That is, the U.S. was not building plants to produce goods while China was building plants.\nQ: All recent data is pointing to median home prices at or near record highs. Is this feasible? And how long can prices go up before they stall or go down?\nSanders:Particularly in coastal cities, house prices are at record high, exceeding prices during the infamous housing bubble of 2005-2007. This rate of growth is not sustainable, since the ratio of house price growth to earnings growth is even worse than at the peak of the housing bubble. Then, we have the Federal Reserve which is talking about reducing its Agency MBS, which will put upward pressure on mortgage rates.\nQ: What impact will the new elevated inflation rates have on home buying?\nSanders:Inflation is a dangerous economic phenomenon. Wages are typically sticky with inflation, but home prices surge during inflationary periods. This makes housing even more unaffordable.\nIn the past, attempts at inflation-protected mortgage products like PLAMs (price-level adjusted mortgages) failed.\nThanks to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, adjustable-rate mortgages (that offer inflation protection to lenders and mortgage holders) is only at 3.3% of mortgages, leaving a whopping 96.7% of mortgages as long-term, fixed-rate mortgages.\nThirty-year fixed-rate mortgages are particularly sensitive to inflationary pressures and interest rate increases. In other words, the Federal Reserve has boxed the mortgage market into a corner ... of risk.\nQ: Home construction is more expensive than ever, with increased supply costs and a shrinking labor pool. How are home builders responding to this, and what does it mean for buyers?\nSanders:Even though lumber costs have been declining after the spike in price, the cost to build a home is higher than ever. Complicating the federal government's push for affordable housing are local supply constraints, such as zoning laws that discourage new construction.\nQ: Speaking of the federal government, what is going to happen to the housing market when the federal moratoriums on forbearance and evictions expire? Will we see a rush of foreclosure filings and tenants kicked out of rental housing to make room for others who can pay higher rents?\nSanders:What will happen when the moratoriums and forbearances have been lifted is hotly debated. Once again, skyrocketing housing prices and sticky wage growth is not a recipe for success when the moratoriums and forbearance programs are lifted.\nThe Biden administration issued afact sheetto help stem the anticipated spike in foreclosures.\nQ: What is the Biden housing policy? And where is HUD SecretaryMarcia Fudgein the policy making? Lately, she seems to be talking about COVID and infrastructure a lot, but what is she doing for housing?\nSanders:Biden and his team look like \"deer in the headlights\" with regards to housing policy. It is difficult to have a sane \"affordable\" housing policy with runaway housing prices (which is also inflationary).\nHUD SecretaryShaun Donovanunder President Obama at least conceded that most low-income families were better off renting their dwelling and he focused on multifamily programs, not chasing homeownership rates.\nNo one knows what Fudge is thinking about housing policy, but the fact sheet from the Biden administration (which was not signed by HUD Secretary Fudge) seems more like \"deer in the headlights\" policy making. Or sheer panic.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FMCC":0.9,"FNMA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181146000,"gmtCreate":1623380841300,"gmtModify":1634033959156,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","listText":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","text":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181146000","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181148121,"gmtCreate":1623380811863,"gmtModify":1634033959757,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ajahhxhdj","listText":"Ajahhxhdj","text":"Ajahhxhdj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181148121","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177982215,"gmtCreate":1627176060037,"gmtModify":1633767502611,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple is good","listText":"Apple is good","text":"Apple is good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177982215","repostId":"2153938547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153938547","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627085070,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153938547?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153938547","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few mo","content":"<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管在周二下午讨论业绩时透露更多有关下一次iPhone发布的暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能使苹果在第二季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这场大流行可能会给通常伴随苹果公司六月季度电话会议的猜谜游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常最重要的花絮来自第三财季收益，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>定于周二下午公布该公司对9月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一款智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在本财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而较弱的指引可能表明推出将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这一次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟发布正式展望一年多，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以表明其业绩与前几个季度的业绩相比如何，但众所周知，它对iPhone发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness、Crespi、Hardt&amp;Co.分析师Brian写道：“我们预计iPhone 13的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的摇摆因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更精细的方向性评论。”怀特。</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将推出的产品令人非常感兴趣。Barclays分析师Tim Long写道：“iPhone 12周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的六月季度数据传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着消费者等待下一款iPhone的发布，但该公司仍有望实现智能手机业务的大幅增长。该公司不仅可以轻松地与疫情早期进行比较，而且还应该从异常促销的无线行业中获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为1.01美元，高于去年同期的65美分。根据Estimize（对冲基金、学者和其他人的众包预测）的数据，平均预期每股收益为1.16美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet一致认为评级的总收入为732.6亿美元，高于一年前的596.9亿美元。根据Estimize，平均估计为773.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中的四份后下跌，尽管该股在过去12个月内上涨了60%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet追踪的44名研究苹果股票的分析师中，33名给予买入评级，9名给予持有评级，2名给予卖出评级，平均目标价为157.88美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么值得注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone业务有望实现至少三年来的第二大增长率，仅次于上一季度。FactSet追踪的分析师预计iPhone营收为342亿美元，同比增长29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大规模的iPhone促销活动，试图与竞争对手AT&amp;T Inc.的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon首席财务官Matthew Ellis在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度势头强劲，我们安排了促销活动，以充分利用经济复苏和客户活动增加的机会。”威瑞森大约20%的消费者现在使用支持5G的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们可能有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>“如果免费提供基本型号，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元升级到更高端型号，”他在分析去年补贴的基础上写道。</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极迹象，例如“积极的促销活动”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他行业，该公司的整体上涨空间受到“限制”。苹果在其收益看涨期权中解决了这些问题，预计6月份季度的负面收入影响将达到30亿至40亿美元，预计主要影响Mac和iPad业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，考虑到家庭以外更正常的活动，这两个部分如何更普遍地保持下去。苹果的Mac和iPad在那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和学校教育的人中很受欢迎，但分析师将关注个人电脑的繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA分析师安吉洛·齐诺(Angelo Zino)写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在[6月季度]及其后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别的近期有利因素。”“我们看到，随着全球经济全面重新开放，企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的丰富多彩的iMac系列和功能强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都是在春季推出的，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 08:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管在周二下午讨论业绩时透露更多有关下一次iPhone发布的暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能使苹果在第二季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这场大流行可能会给通常伴随苹果公司六月季度电话会议的猜谜游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常最重要的花絮来自第三财季收益，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>定于周二下午公布该公司对9月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一款智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在本财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而较弱的指引可能表明推出将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这一次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟发布正式展望一年多，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以表明其业绩与前几个季度的业绩相比如何，但众所周知，它对iPhone发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness、Crespi、Hardt&amp;Co.分析师Brian写道：“我们预计iPhone 13的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的摇摆因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更精细的方向性评论。”怀特。</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将推出的产品令人非常感兴趣。Barclays分析师Tim Long写道：“iPhone 12周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的六月季度数据传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着消费者等待下一款iPhone的发布，但该公司仍有望实现智能手机业务的大幅增长。该公司不仅可以轻松地与疫情早期进行比较，而且还应该从异常促销的无线行业中获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为1.01美元，高于去年同期的65美分。根据Estimize（对冲基金、学者和其他人的众包预测）的数据，平均预期每股收益为1.16美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet一致认为评级的总收入为732.6亿美元，高于一年前的596.9亿美元。根据Estimize，平均估计为773.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中的四份后下跌，尽管该股在过去12个月内上涨了60%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet追踪的44名研究苹果股票的分析师中，33名给予买入评级，9名给予持有评级，2名给予卖出评级，平均目标价为157.88美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么值得注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone业务有望实现至少三年来的第二大增长率，仅次于上一季度。FactSet追踪的分析师预计iPhone营收为342亿美元，同比增长29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大规模的iPhone促销活动，试图与竞争对手AT&amp;T Inc.的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon首席财务官Matthew Ellis在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度势头强劲，我们安排了促销活动，以充分利用经济复苏和客户活动增加的机会。”威瑞森大约20%的消费者现在使用支持5G的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们可能有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>“如果免费提供基本型号，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元升级到更高端型号，”他在分析去年补贴的基础上写道。</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极迹象，例如“积极的促销活动”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他行业，该公司的整体上涨空间受到“限制”。苹果在其收益看涨期权中解决了这些问题，预计6月份季度的负面收入影响将达到30亿至40亿美元，预计主要影响Mac和iPad业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，考虑到家庭以外更正常的活动，这两个部分如何更普遍地保持下去。苹果的Mac和iPad在那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和学校教育的人中很受欢迎，但分析师将关注个人电脑的繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA分析师安吉洛·齐诺(Angelo Zino)写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在[6月季度]及其后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别的近期有利因素。”“我们看到，随着全球经济全面重新开放，企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的丰富多彩的iMac系列和功能强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都是在春季推出的，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153938547","content_text":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon\nHeavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.\nThe pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.\nTypically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple $(AAPL)$ is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.\nThe problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.\n\"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst Brian White.\nThe coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.\nThe June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower one, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.\nWhat to watch for\nEarnings: Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.\nRevenue: The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.\nOn a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.\nStock movement: Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.\nOf the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.\nWhat else to watch for\nApple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.\nSome encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. $(VZ)$, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&T Inc. $(T)$\n\"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.\n\"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.\nUBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.\nBut he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.\nAnother key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.\n\"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"\nThe coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101505161,"gmtCreate":1619920344853,"gmtModify":1634209130122,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ughh","listText":"Ughh","text":"Ughh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101505161","repostId":"1155857726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168170515,"gmtCreate":1623968913337,"gmtModify":1634025202049,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580033952631204","authorIdStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","listText":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","text":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168170515","repostId":"2144742686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}