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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In "Heat-Seeking Missiles": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>

2021-06-22

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2021-06-20

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AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>

2021-06-20

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2021-06-20

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2021-06-20

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Some Commodities Have Now Wiped Out All of Their 2021 Rally<blockquote>一些大宗商品现已抹去2021年的所有涨势</blockquote>

2021-06-20

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2021-06-20

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2021-06-20

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2021-06-20

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Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>

2021-06-20

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Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>

2021-06-20

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Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>

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15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP  facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120393791,"gmtCreate":1624295720013,"gmtModify":1634008191508,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120393791","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164624358,"gmtCreate":1624202394274,"gmtModify":1634009528531,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164624358","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164622817,"gmtCreate":1624202266639,"gmtModify":1634009530343,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164622817","repostId":"2144224427","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164626901,"gmtCreate":1624202193703,"gmtModify":1634009531553,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164626901","repostId":"1113093847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164628781,"gmtCreate":1624202178843,"gmtModify":1634009531676,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164628781","repostId":"1133723804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133723804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133723804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 16:51","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Some Commodities Have Now Wiped Out All of Their 2021 Rally<blockquote>一些大宗商品现已抹去2021年的所有涨势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133723804","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- For all the talk of a commodities boom, some markets have now wiped out gains for the","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- For all the talk of a commodities boom, some markets have now wiped out gains for the year and several more are close to doing so.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——尽管人们都在谈论大宗商品繁荣，但一些市场现在已经抹去了今年的涨幅，还有几个市场即将抹去。</blockquote></p><p> Soybean futures have erased their 2021 advance, sliding more than 20% from an eight-year high reached in May, while corn and wheat have also tumbled. The Bloomberg Grains Spot Subindex slid the most since 2009 on Thursday, before edging higher on Friday as markets recovered some losses. Other commodities that have seen their big rallies evaporate include platinum, while once-surging nickel, sugar and even lumber have faltered.</p><p><blockquote>大豆期货抹去了2021年的涨幅，较5月份触及的八年高点下滑了20%以上，而玉米和小麦也大幅下跌。彭博谷物现货分类指数周四出现2009年以来最大跌幅，周五随着市场收复部分失地而小幅走高。其他大幅上涨的大宗商品包括铂金，而一度飙升的镍、糖甚至木材都出现了动摇。</blockquote></p><p> The fact that some markets are falling while others -- including crude oil and tin -- are holding gains underscores how unevenly the complex is responding to economies reopening and expanding once again. While those materials have climbed on strong demand fundamentals, others face their own unique headwinds, such as an easing supply worries in soybeans and monetary policy uncertainty in the case of gold and silver.</p><p><blockquote>一些市场正在下跌，而包括原油和锡在内的其他市场则保持上涨，这一事实凸显了该综合体对经济重新开放和再次扩张的反应是多么不平衡。虽然这些材料因强劲的需求基本面而上涨，但其他材料也面临着自己独特的阻力，例如大豆供应担忧缓解以及黄金和白银货币政策的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> Some materials also took a hit this week on the Federal Reserve’s signals for interest-rate increases, a rising dollar and China’s efforts to slow inflation. The Asian country has said it will release metals from state reserves in a timely manner to push prices back to a normal range, ramping up efforts to cool the surge in commodities.</p><p><blockquote>本周，一些材料也因美联储加息信号、美元升值以及中国减缓通胀的努力而受到打击。这个亚洲国家表示，将及时从国家储备中释放金属，以推动价格回到正常范围，加大力度为大宗商品的飙升降温。</blockquote></p><p> “Risk-off is front and center thanks to the hawkish words from the Fed, which came on the back of the Chinese government-led directives over prior weeks,” said Michael Cuoco, head of hedge-fund sales for metals and bulk materials at StoneX Group. “Central-bank stimulus helped the markets gather steam in the spring of 2020, and now there is a bit of a macro reset.”</p><p><blockquote>StoneX集团金属和大宗材料对冲基金销售主管迈克尔·库柯(Michael Cuoco)表示：“由于美联储在前几周中国政府主导的指令的支持下发表了鹰派言论，避险情绪占据了主导地位。”“央行的刺激措施帮助市场在2020年春季积聚动力，现在宏观上出现了一些重置。”</blockquote></p><p> Even some of the markets that are clearly benefiting from the reopening are seeing a pullback, with copper heading for its worst week in more than a year. A big backwardation in many commodities and seasonality accounts for some of the recent slump as futures contracts roll over, while improving weather is hurting prices of many agricultural products.</p><p><blockquote>甚至一些明显受益于重新开放的市场也出现了回调，铜价将迎来一年多来最糟糕的一周。随着期货合约的展期，许多大宗商品的大幅现货溢价和季节性是近期暴跌的部分原因，而天气的改善正在损害许多农产品的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Soybean futures in Chicago bounced more than 2% on Friday, but are still heading for a weekly loss of about 11%, the worst performance in seven years. Corn and wheat also recovered a part of Thursday’s declines.Base metals were mixed following losses on Thursday. Copper fell 0.8% on the London Metal Exchange and headed for its biggest weekly loss since March 2020. Nickel rose 0.9%. Iron ore slid 1.2% in Singapore.Precious metals rebounded, after substantial declines. Gold added 1.1%, while palladium rose about 3% after Thursday’s 11% slump.Chinese futures caught up with the overnight rout. Rapeseed and soybean oil slid, and copper and zinc dropped.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥大豆期货周五反弹逾2%，但仍向周跌幅约11%迈进，创七年来最差表现。玉米和小麦也收复了周四的部分跌幅。基本金属在周四下跌后涨跌互现。伦敦金属交易所铜价下跌0.8%，创2020年3月以来最大单周跌幅。镍涨0.9%。新加坡铁矿石下跌1.2%。贵金属在大幅下跌后反弹。黄金上涨1.1%，钯金在周四暴跌11%后上涨约3%。中国期货赶上了隔夜的溃败。菜籽、豆油下滑，铜、锌走低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some Commodities Have Now Wiped Out All of Their 2021 Rally<blockquote>一些大宗商品现已抹去2021年的所有涨势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome Commodities Have Now Wiped Out All of Their 2021 Rally<blockquote>一些大宗商品现已抹去2021年的所有涨势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 16:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- For all the talk of a commodities boom, some markets have now wiped out gains for the year and several more are close to doing so.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——尽管人们都在谈论大宗商品繁荣，但一些市场现在已经抹去了今年的涨幅，还有几个市场即将抹去。</blockquote></p><p> Soybean futures have erased their 2021 advance, sliding more than 20% from an eight-year high reached in May, while corn and wheat have also tumbled. The Bloomberg Grains Spot Subindex slid the most since 2009 on Thursday, before edging higher on Friday as markets recovered some losses. Other commodities that have seen their big rallies evaporate include platinum, while once-surging nickel, sugar and even lumber have faltered.</p><p><blockquote>大豆期货抹去了2021年的涨幅，较5月份触及的八年高点下滑了20%以上，而玉米和小麦也大幅下跌。彭博谷物现货分类指数周四出现2009年以来最大跌幅，周五随着市场收复部分失地而小幅走高。其他大幅上涨的大宗商品包括铂金，而一度飙升的镍、糖甚至木材都出现了动摇。</blockquote></p><p> The fact that some markets are falling while others -- including crude oil and tin -- are holding gains underscores how unevenly the complex is responding to economies reopening and expanding once again. While those materials have climbed on strong demand fundamentals, others face their own unique headwinds, such as an easing supply worries in soybeans and monetary policy uncertainty in the case of gold and silver.</p><p><blockquote>一些市场正在下跌，而包括原油和锡在内的其他市场则保持上涨，这一事实凸显了该综合体对经济重新开放和再次扩张的反应是多么不平衡。虽然这些材料因强劲的需求基本面而上涨，但其他材料也面临着自己独特的阻力，例如大豆供应担忧缓解以及黄金和白银货币政策的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> Some materials also took a hit this week on the Federal Reserve’s signals for interest-rate increases, a rising dollar and China’s efforts to slow inflation. The Asian country has said it will release metals from state reserves in a timely manner to push prices back to a normal range, ramping up efforts to cool the surge in commodities.</p><p><blockquote>本周，一些材料也因美联储加息信号、美元升值以及中国减缓通胀的努力而受到打击。这个亚洲国家表示，将及时从国家储备中释放金属，以推动价格回到正常范围，加大力度为大宗商品的飙升降温。</blockquote></p><p> “Risk-off is front and center thanks to the hawkish words from the Fed, which came on the back of the Chinese government-led directives over prior weeks,” said Michael Cuoco, head of hedge-fund sales for metals and bulk materials at StoneX Group. “Central-bank stimulus helped the markets gather steam in the spring of 2020, and now there is a bit of a macro reset.”</p><p><blockquote>StoneX集团金属和大宗材料对冲基金销售主管迈克尔·库柯(Michael Cuoco)表示：“由于美联储在前几周中国政府主导的指令的支持下发表了鹰派言论，避险情绪占据了主导地位。”“央行的刺激措施帮助市场在2020年春季积聚动力，现在宏观上出现了一些重置。”</blockquote></p><p> Even some of the markets that are clearly benefiting from the reopening are seeing a pullback, with copper heading for its worst week in more than a year. A big backwardation in many commodities and seasonality accounts for some of the recent slump as futures contracts roll over, while improving weather is hurting prices of many agricultural products.</p><p><blockquote>甚至一些明显受益于重新开放的市场也出现了回调，铜价将迎来一年多来最糟糕的一周。随着期货合约的展期，许多大宗商品的大幅现货溢价和季节性是近期暴跌的部分原因，而天气的改善正在损害许多农产品的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Soybean futures in Chicago bounced more than 2% on Friday, but are still heading for a weekly loss of about 11%, the worst performance in seven years. Corn and wheat also recovered a part of Thursday’s declines.Base metals were mixed following losses on Thursday. Copper fell 0.8% on the London Metal Exchange and headed for its biggest weekly loss since March 2020. Nickel rose 0.9%. Iron ore slid 1.2% in Singapore.Precious metals rebounded, after substantial declines. Gold added 1.1%, while palladium rose about 3% after Thursday’s 11% slump.Chinese futures caught up with the overnight rout. Rapeseed and soybean oil slid, and copper and zinc dropped.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥大豆期货周五反弹逾2%，但仍向周跌幅约11%迈进，创七年来最差表现。玉米和小麦也收复了周四的部分跌幅。基本金属在周四下跌后涨跌互现。伦敦金属交易所铜价下跌0.8%，创2020年3月以来最大单周跌幅。镍涨0.9%。新加坡铁矿石下跌1.2%。贵金属在大幅下跌后反弹。黄金上涨1.1%，钯金在周四暴跌11%后上涨约3%。中国期货赶上了隔夜的溃败。菜籽、豆油下滑，铜、锌走低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amid-talk-supercycle-commodities-wipe-181326277.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amid-talk-supercycle-commodities-wipe-181326277.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133723804","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- For all the talk of a commodities boom, some markets have now wiped out gains for the year and several more are close to doing so.\nSoybean futures have erased their 2021 advance, sliding more than 20% from an eight-year high reached in May, while corn and wheat have also tumbled. The Bloomberg Grains Spot Subindex slid the most since 2009 on Thursday, before edging higher on Friday as markets recovered some losses. Other commodities that have seen their big rallies evaporate include platinum, while once-surging nickel, sugar and even lumber have faltered.\nThe fact that some markets are falling while others -- including crude oil and tin -- are holding gains underscores how unevenly the complex is responding to economies reopening and expanding once again. While those materials have climbed on strong demand fundamentals, others face their own unique headwinds, such as an easing supply worries in soybeans and monetary policy uncertainty in the case of gold and silver.\nSome materials also took a hit this week on the Federal Reserve’s signals for interest-rate increases, a rising dollar and China’s efforts to slow inflation. The Asian country has said it will release metals from state reserves in a timely manner to push prices back to a normal range, ramping up efforts to cool the surge in commodities.\n“Risk-off is front and center thanks to the hawkish words from the Fed, which came on the back of the Chinese government-led directives over prior weeks,” said Michael Cuoco, head of hedge-fund sales for metals and bulk materials at StoneX Group. “Central-bank stimulus helped the markets gather steam in the spring of 2020, and now there is a bit of a macro reset.”\nEven some of the markets that are clearly benefiting from the reopening are seeing a pullback, with copper heading for its worst week in more than a year. A big backwardation in many commodities and seasonality accounts for some of the recent slump as futures contracts roll over, while improving weather is hurting prices of many agricultural products.\nSoybean futures in Chicago bounced more than 2% on Friday, but are still heading for a weekly loss of about 11%, the worst performance in seven years. Corn and wheat also recovered a part of Thursday’s declines.Base metals were mixed following losses on Thursday. Copper fell 0.8% on the London Metal Exchange and headed for its biggest weekly loss since March 2020. Nickel rose 0.9%. Iron ore slid 1.2% in Singapore.Precious metals rebounded, after substantial declines. Gold added 1.1%, while palladium rose about 3% after Thursday’s 11% slump.Chinese futures caught up with the overnight rout. Rapeseed and soybean oil slid, and copper and zinc dropped.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164628555,"gmtCreate":1624202165277,"gmtModify":1634009531922,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164628555","repostId":"2144742013","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164628644,"gmtCreate":1624202152688,"gmtModify":1634009532146,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164628644","repostId":"2144786627","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164621268,"gmtCreate":1624202107854,"gmtModify":1634009532841,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164621268","repostId":"2144775754","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164621102,"gmtCreate":1624202095606,"gmtModify":1634009533189,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164621102","repostId":"1147049745","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147049745","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624018214,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147049745?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 20:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147049745","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock futures fell on Friday as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are on pace to","content":"<p>U.S. stock futures fell on Friday as the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are on pace to post a losing week after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周五下跌，因为在美联储最新政策更新后，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数预计将出现本周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 153 points, or 0.45%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 14.75 points, or 0.35% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis fell 18.5 points, or 0.13%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指E-minis下跌153点，跌幅0.45%，标普500 E-minis下跌14.75点，跌幅0.35%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌18.5点，跌幅0.13%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25234fe10c0fe8a9e73f2cec66447216\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip Dow has lost 1.9% week to date, on pace for its worst week since January. The S&amp;P 500 has fallen 0.6%. But the Nasdaq has gained 0.65% on the week.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股道琼斯指数本周迄今已下跌1.9%，创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周。标普500下跌0.6%。但纳斯达克本周上涨了0.65%。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came amid a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve&nbsp;where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the&nbsp;2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year fell.&nbsp;The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward the economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际，所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平，2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升，而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观，而短期收益率的跃升则显示了美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank's hawkish pivot on Wednesday&nbsp;caused volatile stock and bond market moves. Fed officials added two rate hikes to their 2023 forecast and increased their inflation projection for the year, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>央行周三的鹰派转向导致股市和债市波动。美联储官员在2023年的预测中增加了两次加息，并提高了今年的通胀预测，而美联储主席鲍威尔表示，官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买，并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”，指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计，鉴于这一事件，交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Adobe(ADBE) </b>– Adobe reported quarterly profit of $3.03 per share, 21 cents a share above estimates. The software company's revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts and Adobe gave stronger-than-expected current-quarter guidance. Its shares rose 3.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Adobe(ADBE)</b>-Adobe报告季度利润为每股3.03美元，比预期高出每股21美分。该软件公司的收入也超出了华尔街的预期，Adobe给出了强于预期的本季度指引。其股价在盘前交易中上涨3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Smith &amp; Wesson(SWBI) </b>– Smith &amp; Wesson reported better-than-expected profit and sales for its latest quarter, as the gun maker's sales surged 67% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The company notes that its shipments jumped 70% compared to overall industry growth of 42%. Shares rallied 4.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>史密斯威森(SWBI)</b>-Smith&amp;Wesson报告其最新季度的利润和销售额好于预期，该枪支制造商的销售额与去年同期相比飙升了67%。该公司指出，其出货量增长了70%，而行业整体增长率为42%。股价在盘前交易中上涨4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Orphazyme(ORPH)</b> – Orphazyme plunged 52.6% in the premarket after the Food and Drug Administration rejected its experimental treatment for a genetic disorder known as Niemann-Pick disease type C. The Denmark-based biotech company had seen volatile trading in its shares in recent days after it picked up social media attention, falling 10.2% Thursday after a more than 61% surge Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>Orphazyme(ORPH)</b>-在美国食品和药物管理局拒绝其对尼曼-皮克病C型遗传疾病的实验性治疗后，Orphazyme在盘前暴跌52.6%。这家总部位于丹麦的生物技术公司最近几天股价波动较大社交媒体关注度在周三飙升超过61%后，周四下跌10.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta Air Lines(DAL)</b> – The stock added 1.1% in the premarket following a double upgrade at Wolfe Research to \"outperform\" from \"underperform.\" Wolfe said it sees business travel benefiting from pent-up demand later this summer, although it doesn't think it will return to pre-Covid levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>达美航空(DAL)</b>-Wolfe Research将评级从“跑输大盘”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该股盘前上涨1.1%。沃尔夫表示，预计今年夏天晚些时候商务旅行将受益于被压抑的需求，尽管它认为不会恢复到新冠疫情爆发前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manchester United(MANU) </b>– Manchester United lost $30.2 million for the first three months of this year, due largely to the absence of fans at its games because of the coronavirus pandemic. All of the team's 2020-21 season games were played without spectators.</p><p><blockquote><b>曼联(MANU)</b>-曼联今年前三个月损失了3020万美元，主要是由于冠状病毒大流行导致球迷缺席比赛。球队2020-21赛季的所有比赛都是在没有观众的情况下进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ArcelorMittal(MT) </b>– ArcelorMittal sold its remaining 38.2 million shares of steel producerCleveland-Cliffs(CLF). The mining company will use the proceeds to fund a $750 million share buyback. Arcelor-Mittal rose 1% in premarket action, while Cleveland-Cliffs added 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><b>安赛乐米塔尔(MT)</b>-安赛乐米塔尔出售了钢铁生产商克利夫兰克利夫斯(CLF)剩余的3820万股股票。该矿业公司将利用所得款项为7.5亿美元的股票回购提供资金。阿塞洛-米塔尔(Arcelor-Mittal)盘前上涨1%，克利夫兰克利夫斯(Cleveland-Cliffs)上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Carnival(CCL) </b>– The cruise line operator disclosed a March data breach that may have exposed personal information of customers of its Carnival, Holland America and Princess brands. It did not disclose how many may have been affected.</p><p><blockquote><b>嘉年华(CCL)</b>-该邮轮运营商披露了3月份的数据泄露事件，该事件可能暴露了其嘉年华、荷美和公主品牌客户的个人信息。它没有透露有多少人可能受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox increased its stock repurchase program by $2 billion to a total of $4 billion, helping to send its shares higher by 2.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>福克斯公司(FOXA)</b>-福克斯将股票回购计划增加了20亿美元，总额达到40亿美元，帮助其股价在盘前上涨2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pilgrim's Pride(PPC) </b>– Pilgrim's Pride expanded its prepared foods and branded products business by purchasing Kerry Group's Meats and Meals business. The poultry producer will pay the Ireland-based company about $947 million for that unit.</p><p><blockquote><b>朝圣者的骄傲(PPC)</b>–Pilgrim's Pride透过收购嘉里集团的肉类及膳食业务，扩展其熟食及品牌产品业务。这家家禽生产商将向这家总部位于爱尔兰的公司支付约9.47亿美元购买该设备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hasbro(HAS),Mattel(MAT) </b>– The toymakers are on watch following a New York Post report warning of a potential toy shortage this coming holiday season. The paper said thousands of toys ready for shipment remain stockpiled in China due to the lack of shipping containers available for export.</p><p><blockquote><b>孩之宝(HAS)、美泰(MAT)</b>-《纽约邮报》的一篇报道警告即将到来的假期可能会出现玩具短缺，玩具制造商正在密切关注。该报称，由于缺乏可供出口的集装箱，数千件准备装运的玩具仍储存在中国。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Biogen(BIIB)</b> – The drugmaker's stock was upgraded to \"overweight\" from \"neutral\" at Piper Sandler, which cites a number of factors including the likelihood that doctors will prescribe Biogen's newly approved Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm. Biogen shares rose 1.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Biogen(BIIB)</b>–Piper Sandler将该制药商的股票从“中性”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该评级引用了许多因素，包括医生可能会开百健新批准的阿尔茨海默病药物Aduhelm。百健(Biogen)股价盘前上涨1.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Citigroup(C) </b>– The bank's stock remains on watch after declining for the past 11 consecutive trading days, losing 14% over that time.</p><p><blockquote><b>花旗集团(C)</b>-该银行股价在过去连续11个交易日下跌后仍受到关注，在此期间下跌了14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 20:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock futures fell on Friday as the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are on pace to post a losing week after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周五下跌，因为在美联储最新政策更新后，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数预计将出现本周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 153 points, or 0.45%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 14.75 points, or 0.35% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis fell 18.5 points, or 0.13%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指E-minis下跌153点，跌幅0.45%，标普500 E-minis下跌14.75点，跌幅0.35%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌18.5点，跌幅0.13%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25234fe10c0fe8a9e73f2cec66447216\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip Dow has lost 1.9% week to date, on pace for its worst week since January. The S&amp;P 500 has fallen 0.6%. But the Nasdaq has gained 0.65% on the week.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股道琼斯指数本周迄今已下跌1.9%，创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周。标普500下跌0.6%。但纳斯达克本周上涨了0.65%。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came amid a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve&nbsp;where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the&nbsp;2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year fell.&nbsp;The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward the economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际，所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平，2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升，而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观，而短期收益率的跃升则显示了美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank's hawkish pivot on Wednesday&nbsp;caused volatile stock and bond market moves. Fed officials added two rate hikes to their 2023 forecast and increased their inflation projection for the year, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>央行周三的鹰派转向导致股市和债市波动。美联储官员在2023年的预测中增加了两次加息，并提高了今年的通胀预测，而美联储主席鲍威尔表示，官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买，并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”，指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计，鉴于这一事件，交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Adobe(ADBE) </b>– Adobe reported quarterly profit of $3.03 per share, 21 cents a share above estimates. The software company's revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts and Adobe gave stronger-than-expected current-quarter guidance. Its shares rose 3.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Adobe(ADBE)</b>-Adobe报告季度利润为每股3.03美元，比预期高出每股21美分。该软件公司的收入也超出了华尔街的预期，Adobe给出了强于预期的本季度指引。其股价在盘前交易中上涨3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Smith &amp; Wesson(SWBI) </b>– Smith &amp; Wesson reported better-than-expected profit and sales for its latest quarter, as the gun maker's sales surged 67% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The company notes that its shipments jumped 70% compared to overall industry growth of 42%. Shares rallied 4.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>史密斯威森(SWBI)</b>-Smith&amp;Wesson报告其最新季度的利润和销售额好于预期，该枪支制造商的销售额与去年同期相比飙升了67%。该公司指出，其出货量增长了70%，而行业整体增长率为42%。股价在盘前交易中上涨4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Orphazyme(ORPH)</b> – Orphazyme plunged 52.6% in the premarket after the Food and Drug Administration rejected its experimental treatment for a genetic disorder known as Niemann-Pick disease type C. The Denmark-based biotech company had seen volatile trading in its shares in recent days after it picked up social media attention, falling 10.2% Thursday after a more than 61% surge Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>Orphazyme(ORPH)</b>-在美国食品和药物管理局拒绝其对尼曼-皮克病C型遗传疾病的实验性治疗后，Orphazyme在盘前暴跌52.6%。这家总部位于丹麦的生物技术公司最近几天股价波动较大社交媒体关注度在周三飙升超过61%后，周四下跌10.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta Air Lines(DAL)</b> – The stock added 1.1% in the premarket following a double upgrade at Wolfe Research to \"outperform\" from \"underperform.\" Wolfe said it sees business travel benefiting from pent-up demand later this summer, although it doesn't think it will return to pre-Covid levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>达美航空(DAL)</b>-Wolfe Research将评级从“跑输大盘”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该股盘前上涨1.1%。沃尔夫表示，预计今年夏天晚些时候商务旅行将受益于被压抑的需求，尽管它认为不会恢复到新冠疫情爆发前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manchester United(MANU) </b>– Manchester United lost $30.2 million for the first three months of this year, due largely to the absence of fans at its games because of the coronavirus pandemic. All of the team's 2020-21 season games were played without spectators.</p><p><blockquote><b>曼联(MANU)</b>-曼联今年前三个月损失了3020万美元，主要是由于冠状病毒大流行导致球迷缺席比赛。球队2020-21赛季的所有比赛都是在没有观众的情况下进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ArcelorMittal(MT) </b>– ArcelorMittal sold its remaining 38.2 million shares of steel producerCleveland-Cliffs(CLF). The mining company will use the proceeds to fund a $750 million share buyback. Arcelor-Mittal rose 1% in premarket action, while Cleveland-Cliffs added 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><b>安赛乐米塔尔(MT)</b>-安赛乐米塔尔出售了钢铁生产商克利夫兰克利夫斯(CLF)剩余的3820万股股票。该矿业公司将利用所得款项为7.5亿美元的股票回购提供资金。阿塞洛-米塔尔(Arcelor-Mittal)盘前上涨1%，克利夫兰克利夫斯(Cleveland-Cliffs)上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Carnival(CCL) </b>– The cruise line operator disclosed a March data breach that may have exposed personal information of customers of its Carnival, Holland America and Princess brands. It did not disclose how many may have been affected.</p><p><blockquote><b>嘉年华(CCL)</b>-该邮轮运营商披露了3月份的数据泄露事件，该事件可能暴露了其嘉年华、荷美和公主品牌客户的个人信息。它没有透露有多少人可能受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox increased its stock repurchase program by $2 billion to a total of $4 billion, helping to send its shares higher by 2.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>福克斯公司(FOXA)</b>-福克斯将股票回购计划增加了20亿美元，总额达到40亿美元，帮助其股价在盘前上涨2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pilgrim's Pride(PPC) </b>– Pilgrim's Pride expanded its prepared foods and branded products business by purchasing Kerry Group's Meats and Meals business. The poultry producer will pay the Ireland-based company about $947 million for that unit.</p><p><blockquote><b>朝圣者的骄傲(PPC)</b>–Pilgrim's Pride透过收购嘉里集团的肉类及膳食业务，扩展其熟食及品牌产品业务。这家家禽生产商将向这家总部位于爱尔兰的公司支付约9.47亿美元购买该设备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hasbro(HAS),Mattel(MAT) </b>– The toymakers are on watch following a New York Post report warning of a potential toy shortage this coming holiday season. The paper said thousands of toys ready for shipment remain stockpiled in China due to the lack of shipping containers available for export.</p><p><blockquote><b>孩之宝(HAS)、美泰(MAT)</b>-《纽约邮报》的一篇报道警告即将到来的假期可能会出现玩具短缺，玩具制造商正在密切关注。该报称，由于缺乏可供出口的集装箱，数千件准备装运的玩具仍储存在中国。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Biogen(BIIB)</b> – The drugmaker's stock was upgraded to \"overweight\" from \"neutral\" at Piper Sandler, which cites a number of factors including the likelihood that doctors will prescribe Biogen's newly approved Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm. Biogen shares rose 1.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Biogen(BIIB)</b>–Piper Sandler将该制药商的股票从“中性”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该评级引用了许多因素，包括医生可能会开百健新批准的阿尔茨海默病药物Aduhelm。百健(Biogen)股价盘前上涨1.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Citigroup(C) </b>– The bank's stock remains on watch after declining for the past 11 consecutive trading days, losing 14% over that time.</p><p><blockquote><b>花旗集团(C)</b>-该银行股价在过去连续11个交易日下跌后仍受到关注，在此期间下跌了14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147049745","content_text":"U.S. stock futures fell on Friday as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are on pace to post a losing week after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.\nAt 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 153 points, or 0.45%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 14.75 points, or 0.35% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis fell 18.5 points, or 0.13%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05\nThe blue-chip Dow has lost 1.9% week to date, on pace for its worst week since January. The S&P 500 has fallen 0.6%. But the Nasdaq has gained 0.65% on the week.\nThe decline in stocks came amid a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year fell. The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward the economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.\nThe central bank's hawkish pivot on Wednesday caused volatile stock and bond market moves. Fed officials added two rate hikes to their 2023 forecast and increased their inflation projection for the year, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.\nFriday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nAdobe(ADBE) – Adobe reported quarterly profit of $3.03 per share, 21 cents a share above estimates. The software company's revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts and Adobe gave stronger-than-expected current-quarter guidance. Its shares rose 3.1% in premarket trading.\nSmith & Wesson(SWBI) – Smith & Wesson reported better-than-expected profit and sales for its latest quarter, as the gun maker's sales surged 67% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The company notes that its shipments jumped 70% compared to overall industry growth of 42%. Shares rallied 4.7% in premarket trading.\nOrphazyme(ORPH) – Orphazyme plunged 52.6% in the premarket after the Food and Drug Administration rejected its experimental treatment for a genetic disorder known as Niemann-Pick disease type C. The Denmark-based biotech company had seen volatile trading in its shares in recent days after it picked up social media attention, falling 10.2% Thursday after a more than 61% surge Wednesday.\nDelta Air Lines(DAL) – The stock added 1.1% in the premarket following a double upgrade at Wolfe Research to \"outperform\" from \"underperform.\" Wolfe said it sees business travel benefiting from pent-up demand later this summer, although it doesn't think it will return to pre-Covid levels.\nManchester United(MANU) – Manchester United lost $30.2 million for the first three months of this year, due largely to the absence of fans at its games because of the coronavirus pandemic. All of the team's 2020-21 season games were played without spectators.\nArcelorMittal(MT) – ArcelorMittal sold its remaining 38.2 million shares of steel producerCleveland-Cliffs(CLF). The mining company will use the proceeds to fund a $750 million share buyback. Arcelor-Mittal rose 1% in premarket action, while Cleveland-Cliffs added 0.3%.\nCarnival(CCL) – The cruise line operator disclosed a March data breach that may have exposed personal information of customers of its Carnival, Holland America and Princess brands. It did not disclose how many may have been affected.\nFox Corp.(FOXA) – Fox increased its stock repurchase program by $2 billion to a total of $4 billion, helping to send its shares higher by 2.8% in the premarket.\nPilgrim's Pride(PPC) – Pilgrim's Pride expanded its prepared foods and branded products business by purchasing Kerry Group's Meats and Meals business. The poultry producer will pay the Ireland-based company about $947 million for that unit.\nHasbro(HAS),Mattel(MAT) – The toymakers are on watch following a New York Post report warning of a potential toy shortage this coming holiday season. The paper said thousands of toys ready for shipment remain stockpiled in China due to the lack of shipping containers available for export.\nBiogen(BIIB) – The drugmaker's stock was upgraded to \"overweight\" from \"neutral\" at Piper Sandler, which cites a number of factors including the likelihood that doctors will prescribe Biogen's newly approved Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm. Biogen shares rose 1.7% in the premarket.\nCitigroup(C) – The bank's stock remains on watch after declining for the past 11 consecutive trading days, losing 14% over that time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164623623,"gmtCreate":1624202045462,"gmtModify":1634009534110,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164623623","repostId":"1147049745","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147049745","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624018214,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147049745?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 20:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147049745","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock futures fell on Friday as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are on pace to","content":"<p>U.S. stock futures fell on Friday as the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are on pace to post a losing week after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周五下跌，因为在美联储最新政策更新后，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数预计将出现本周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 153 points, or 0.45%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 14.75 points, or 0.35% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis fell 18.5 points, or 0.13%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指E-minis下跌153点，跌幅0.45%，标普500 E-minis下跌14.75点，跌幅0.35%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌18.5点，跌幅0.13%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25234fe10c0fe8a9e73f2cec66447216\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip Dow has lost 1.9% week to date, on pace for its worst week since January. The S&amp;P 500 has fallen 0.6%. But the Nasdaq has gained 0.65% on the week.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股道琼斯指数本周迄今已下跌1.9%，创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周。标普500下跌0.6%。但纳斯达克本周上涨了0.65%。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came amid a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve&nbsp;where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the&nbsp;2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year fell.&nbsp;The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward the economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际，所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平，2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升，而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观，而短期收益率的跃升则显示了美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank's hawkish pivot on Wednesday&nbsp;caused volatile stock and bond market moves. Fed officials added two rate hikes to their 2023 forecast and increased their inflation projection for the year, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>央行周三的鹰派转向导致股市和债市波动。美联储官员在2023年的预测中增加了两次加息，并提高了今年的通胀预测，而美联储主席鲍威尔表示，官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买，并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”，指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计，鉴于这一事件，交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Adobe(ADBE) </b>– Adobe reported quarterly profit of $3.03 per share, 21 cents a share above estimates. The software company's revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts and Adobe gave stronger-than-expected current-quarter guidance. Its shares rose 3.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Adobe(ADBE)</b>-Adobe报告季度利润为每股3.03美元，比预期高出每股21美分。该软件公司的收入也超出了华尔街的预期，Adobe给出了强于预期的本季度指引。其股价在盘前交易中上涨3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Smith &amp; Wesson(SWBI) </b>– Smith &amp; Wesson reported better-than-expected profit and sales for its latest quarter, as the gun maker's sales surged 67% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The company notes that its shipments jumped 70% compared to overall industry growth of 42%. Shares rallied 4.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>史密斯威森(SWBI)</b>-Smith&amp;Wesson报告其最新季度的利润和销售额好于预期，该枪支制造商的销售额与去年同期相比飙升了67%。该公司指出，其出货量增长了70%，而行业整体增长率为42%。股价在盘前交易中上涨4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Orphazyme(ORPH)</b> – Orphazyme plunged 52.6% in the premarket after the Food and Drug Administration rejected its experimental treatment for a genetic disorder known as Niemann-Pick disease type C. The Denmark-based biotech company had seen volatile trading in its shares in recent days after it picked up social media attention, falling 10.2% Thursday after a more than 61% surge Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>Orphazyme(ORPH)</b>-在美国食品和药物管理局拒绝其对尼曼-皮克病C型遗传疾病的实验性治疗后，Orphazyme在盘前暴跌52.6%。这家总部位于丹麦的生物技术公司最近几天股价波动较大社交媒体关注度在周三飙升超过61%后，周四下跌10.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta Air Lines(DAL)</b> – The stock added 1.1% in the premarket following a double upgrade at Wolfe Research to \"outperform\" from \"underperform.\" Wolfe said it sees business travel benefiting from pent-up demand later this summer, although it doesn't think it will return to pre-Covid levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>达美航空(DAL)</b>-Wolfe Research将评级从“跑输大盘”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该股盘前上涨1.1%。沃尔夫表示，预计今年夏天晚些时候商务旅行将受益于被压抑的需求，尽管它认为不会恢复到新冠疫情爆发前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manchester United(MANU) </b>– Manchester United lost $30.2 million for the first three months of this year, due largely to the absence of fans at its games because of the coronavirus pandemic. All of the team's 2020-21 season games were played without spectators.</p><p><blockquote><b>曼联(MANU)</b>-曼联今年前三个月损失了3020万美元，主要是由于冠状病毒大流行导致球迷缺席比赛。球队2020-21赛季的所有比赛都是在没有观众的情况下进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ArcelorMittal(MT) </b>– ArcelorMittal sold its remaining 38.2 million shares of steel producerCleveland-Cliffs(CLF). The mining company will use the proceeds to fund a $750 million share buyback. Arcelor-Mittal rose 1% in premarket action, while Cleveland-Cliffs added 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><b>安赛乐米塔尔(MT)</b>-安赛乐米塔尔出售了钢铁生产商克利夫兰克利夫斯(CLF)剩余的3820万股股票。该矿业公司将利用所得款项为7.5亿美元的股票回购提供资金。阿塞洛-米塔尔(Arcelor-Mittal)盘前上涨1%，克利夫兰克利夫斯(Cleveland-Cliffs)上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Carnival(CCL) </b>– The cruise line operator disclosed a March data breach that may have exposed personal information of customers of its Carnival, Holland America and Princess brands. It did not disclose how many may have been affected.</p><p><blockquote><b>嘉年华(CCL)</b>-该邮轮运营商披露了3月份的数据泄露事件，该事件可能暴露了其嘉年华、荷美和公主品牌客户的个人信息。它没有透露有多少人可能受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox increased its stock repurchase program by $2 billion to a total of $4 billion, helping to send its shares higher by 2.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>福克斯公司(FOXA)</b>-福克斯将股票回购计划增加了20亿美元，总额达到40亿美元，帮助其股价在盘前上涨2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pilgrim's Pride(PPC) </b>– Pilgrim's Pride expanded its prepared foods and branded products business by purchasing Kerry Group's Meats and Meals business. The poultry producer will pay the Ireland-based company about $947 million for that unit.</p><p><blockquote><b>朝圣者的骄傲(PPC)</b>–Pilgrim's Pride透过收购嘉里集团的肉类及膳食业务，扩展其熟食及品牌产品业务。这家家禽生产商将向这家总部位于爱尔兰的公司支付约9.47亿美元购买该设备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hasbro(HAS),Mattel(MAT) </b>– The toymakers are on watch following a New York Post report warning of a potential toy shortage this coming holiday season. The paper said thousands of toys ready for shipment remain stockpiled in China due to the lack of shipping containers available for export.</p><p><blockquote><b>孩之宝(HAS)、美泰(MAT)</b>-《纽约邮报》的一篇报道警告即将到来的假期可能会出现玩具短缺，玩具制造商正在密切关注。该报称，由于缺乏可供出口的集装箱，数千件准备装运的玩具仍储存在中国。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Biogen(BIIB)</b> – The drugmaker's stock was upgraded to \"overweight\" from \"neutral\" at Piper Sandler, which cites a number of factors including the likelihood that doctors will prescribe Biogen's newly approved Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm. Biogen shares rose 1.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Biogen(BIIB)</b>–Piper Sandler将该制药商的股票从“中性”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该评级引用了许多因素，包括医生可能会开百健新批准的阿尔茨海默病药物Aduhelm。百健(Biogen)股价盘前上涨1.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Citigroup(C) </b>– The bank's stock remains on watch after declining for the past 11 consecutive trading days, losing 14% over that time.</p><p><blockquote><b>花旗集团(C)</b>-该银行股价在过去连续11个交易日下跌后仍受到关注，在此期间下跌了14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 20:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock futures fell on Friday as the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are on pace to post a losing week after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周五下跌，因为在美联储最新政策更新后，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数预计将出现本周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 153 points, or 0.45%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 14.75 points, or 0.35% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis fell 18.5 points, or 0.13%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指E-minis下跌153点，跌幅0.45%，标普500 E-minis下跌14.75点，跌幅0.35%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌18.5点，跌幅0.13%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25234fe10c0fe8a9e73f2cec66447216\" tg-width=\"1003\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip Dow has lost 1.9% week to date, on pace for its worst week since January. The S&amp;P 500 has fallen 0.6%. But the Nasdaq has gained 0.65% on the week.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股道琼斯指数本周迄今已下跌1.9%，创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周。标普500下跌0.6%。但纳斯达克本周上涨了0.65%。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came amid a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve&nbsp;where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the&nbsp;2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year fell.&nbsp;The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward the economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际，所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平，2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升，而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观，而短期收益率的跃升则显示了美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank's hawkish pivot on Wednesday&nbsp;caused volatile stock and bond market moves. Fed officials added two rate hikes to their 2023 forecast and increased their inflation projection for the year, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>央行周三的鹰派转向导致股市和债市波动。美联储官员在2023年的预测中增加了两次加息，并提高了今年的通胀预测，而美联储主席鲍威尔表示，官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买，并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”，指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计，鉴于这一事件，交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Adobe(ADBE) </b>– Adobe reported quarterly profit of $3.03 per share, 21 cents a share above estimates. The software company's revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts and Adobe gave stronger-than-expected current-quarter guidance. Its shares rose 3.1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Adobe(ADBE)</b>-Adobe报告季度利润为每股3.03美元，比预期高出每股21美分。该软件公司的收入也超出了华尔街的预期，Adobe给出了强于预期的本季度指引。其股价在盘前交易中上涨3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Smith &amp; Wesson(SWBI) </b>– Smith &amp; Wesson reported better-than-expected profit and sales for its latest quarter, as the gun maker's sales surged 67% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The company notes that its shipments jumped 70% compared to overall industry growth of 42%. Shares rallied 4.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>史密斯威森(SWBI)</b>-Smith&amp;Wesson报告其最新季度的利润和销售额好于预期，该枪支制造商的销售额与去年同期相比飙升了67%。该公司指出，其出货量增长了70%，而行业整体增长率为42%。股价在盘前交易中上涨4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Orphazyme(ORPH)</b> – Orphazyme plunged 52.6% in the premarket after the Food and Drug Administration rejected its experimental treatment for a genetic disorder known as Niemann-Pick disease type C. The Denmark-based biotech company had seen volatile trading in its shares in recent days after it picked up social media attention, falling 10.2% Thursday after a more than 61% surge Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>Orphazyme(ORPH)</b>-在美国食品和药物管理局拒绝其对尼曼-皮克病C型遗传疾病的实验性治疗后，Orphazyme在盘前暴跌52.6%。这家总部位于丹麦的生物技术公司最近几天股价波动较大社交媒体关注度在周三飙升超过61%后，周四下跌10.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Delta Air Lines(DAL)</b> – The stock added 1.1% in the premarket following a double upgrade at Wolfe Research to \"outperform\" from \"underperform.\" Wolfe said it sees business travel benefiting from pent-up demand later this summer, although it doesn't think it will return to pre-Covid levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>达美航空(DAL)</b>-Wolfe Research将评级从“跑输大盘”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该股盘前上涨1.1%。沃尔夫表示，预计今年夏天晚些时候商务旅行将受益于被压抑的需求，尽管它认为不会恢复到新冠疫情爆发前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manchester United(MANU) </b>– Manchester United lost $30.2 million for the first three months of this year, due largely to the absence of fans at its games because of the coronavirus pandemic. All of the team's 2020-21 season games were played without spectators.</p><p><blockquote><b>曼联(MANU)</b>-曼联今年前三个月损失了3020万美元，主要是由于冠状病毒大流行导致球迷缺席比赛。球队2020-21赛季的所有比赛都是在没有观众的情况下进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ArcelorMittal(MT) </b>– ArcelorMittal sold its remaining 38.2 million shares of steel producerCleveland-Cliffs(CLF). The mining company will use the proceeds to fund a $750 million share buyback. Arcelor-Mittal rose 1% in premarket action, while Cleveland-Cliffs added 0.3%.</p><p><blockquote><b>安赛乐米塔尔(MT)</b>-安赛乐米塔尔出售了钢铁生产商克利夫兰克利夫斯(CLF)剩余的3820万股股票。该矿业公司将利用所得款项为7.5亿美元的股票回购提供资金。阿塞洛-米塔尔(Arcelor-Mittal)盘前上涨1%，克利夫兰克利夫斯(Cleveland-Cliffs)上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Carnival(CCL) </b>– The cruise line operator disclosed a March data breach that may have exposed personal information of customers of its Carnival, Holland America and Princess brands. It did not disclose how many may have been affected.</p><p><blockquote><b>嘉年华(CCL)</b>-该邮轮运营商披露了3月份的数据泄露事件，该事件可能暴露了其嘉年华、荷美和公主品牌客户的个人信息。它没有透露有多少人可能受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fox Corp.(FOXA) </b>– Fox increased its stock repurchase program by $2 billion to a total of $4 billion, helping to send its shares higher by 2.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>福克斯公司(FOXA)</b>-福克斯将股票回购计划增加了20亿美元，总额达到40亿美元，帮助其股价在盘前上涨2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pilgrim's Pride(PPC) </b>– Pilgrim's Pride expanded its prepared foods and branded products business by purchasing Kerry Group's Meats and Meals business. The poultry producer will pay the Ireland-based company about $947 million for that unit.</p><p><blockquote><b>朝圣者的骄傲(PPC)</b>–Pilgrim's Pride透过收购嘉里集团的肉类及膳食业务，扩展其熟食及品牌产品业务。这家家禽生产商将向这家总部位于爱尔兰的公司支付约9.47亿美元购买该设备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hasbro(HAS),Mattel(MAT) </b>– The toymakers are on watch following a New York Post report warning of a potential toy shortage this coming holiday season. The paper said thousands of toys ready for shipment remain stockpiled in China due to the lack of shipping containers available for export.</p><p><blockquote><b>孩之宝(HAS)、美泰(MAT)</b>-《纽约邮报》的一篇报道警告即将到来的假期可能会出现玩具短缺，玩具制造商正在密切关注。该报称，由于缺乏可供出口的集装箱，数千件准备装运的玩具仍储存在中国。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Biogen(BIIB)</b> – The drugmaker's stock was upgraded to \"overweight\" from \"neutral\" at Piper Sandler, which cites a number of factors including the likelihood that doctors will prescribe Biogen's newly approved Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm. Biogen shares rose 1.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Biogen(BIIB)</b>–Piper Sandler将该制药商的股票从“中性”上调至“跑赢大盘”，该评级引用了许多因素，包括医生可能会开百健新批准的阿尔茨海默病药物Aduhelm。百健(Biogen)股价盘前上涨1.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Citigroup(C) </b>– The bank's stock remains on watch after declining for the past 11 consecutive trading days, losing 14% over that time.</p><p><blockquote><b>花旗集团(C)</b>-该银行股价在过去连续11个交易日下跌后仍受到关注，在此期间下跌了14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147049745","content_text":"U.S. stock futures fell on Friday as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are on pace to post a losing week after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.\nAt 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 153 points, or 0.45%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 14.75 points, or 0.35% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis fell 18.5 points, or 0.13%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05\nThe blue-chip Dow has lost 1.9% week to date, on pace for its worst week since January. The S&P 500 has fallen 0.6%. But the Nasdaq has gained 0.65% on the week.\nThe decline in stocks came amid a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year fell. The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward the economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.\nThe central bank's hawkish pivot on Wednesday caused volatile stock and bond market moves. Fed officials added two rate hikes to their 2023 forecast and increased their inflation projection for the year, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.\nFriday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nAdobe(ADBE) – Adobe reported quarterly profit of $3.03 per share, 21 cents a share above estimates. The software company's revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts and Adobe gave stronger-than-expected current-quarter guidance. Its shares rose 3.1% in premarket trading.\nSmith & Wesson(SWBI) – Smith & Wesson reported better-than-expected profit and sales for its latest quarter, as the gun maker's sales surged 67% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The company notes that its shipments jumped 70% compared to overall industry growth of 42%. Shares rallied 4.7% in premarket trading.\nOrphazyme(ORPH) – Orphazyme plunged 52.6% in the premarket after the Food and Drug Administration rejected its experimental treatment for a genetic disorder known as Niemann-Pick disease type C. The Denmark-based biotech company had seen volatile trading in its shares in recent days after it picked up social media attention, falling 10.2% Thursday after a more than 61% surge Wednesday.\nDelta Air Lines(DAL) – The stock added 1.1% in the premarket following a double upgrade at Wolfe Research to \"outperform\" from \"underperform.\" Wolfe said it sees business travel benefiting from pent-up demand later this summer, although it doesn't think it will return to pre-Covid levels.\nManchester United(MANU) – Manchester United lost $30.2 million for the first three months of this year, due largely to the absence of fans at its games because of the coronavirus pandemic. All of the team's 2020-21 season games were played without spectators.\nArcelorMittal(MT) – ArcelorMittal sold its remaining 38.2 million shares of steel producerCleveland-Cliffs(CLF). The mining company will use the proceeds to fund a $750 million share buyback. Arcelor-Mittal rose 1% in premarket action, while Cleveland-Cliffs added 0.3%.\nCarnival(CCL) – The cruise line operator disclosed a March data breach that may have exposed personal information of customers of its Carnival, Holland America and Princess brands. It did not disclose how many may have been affected.\nFox Corp.(FOXA) – Fox increased its stock repurchase program by $2 billion to a total of $4 billion, helping to send its shares higher by 2.8% in the premarket.\nPilgrim's Pride(PPC) – Pilgrim's Pride expanded its prepared foods and branded products business by purchasing Kerry Group's Meats and Meals business. The poultry producer will pay the Ireland-based company about $947 million for that unit.\nHasbro(HAS),Mattel(MAT) – The toymakers are on watch following a New York Post report warning of a potential toy shortage this coming holiday season. The paper said thousands of toys ready for shipment remain stockpiled in China due to the lack of shipping containers available for export.\nBiogen(BIIB) – The drugmaker's stock was upgraded to \"overweight\" from \"neutral\" at Piper Sandler, which cites a number of factors including the likelihood that doctors will prescribe Biogen's newly approved Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm. Biogen shares rose 1.7% in the premarket.\nCitigroup(C) – The bank's stock remains on watch after declining for the past 11 consecutive trading days, losing 14% over that time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164623113,"gmtCreate":1624202027732,"gmtModify":1634009534232,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164623113","repostId":"1149451535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149451535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624021899,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149451535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149451535","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在大流行期间，随着美国房价比以往任何时候都更高、更快地攀升，那些按兵不动的潜在房屋卖家终于开始套现，这是缓解疯狂的房地产市场严重短缺的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.</p><p><blockquote>根据购房者投资平台Haus的数据，6月初美国待售房屋数量较5月同期增长6.7%。这是自去年Covid-19封锁以来的最大增幅。在接受调查的100个大都市地区中，有54个地区的房源数量有所上升，包括费城、纽约、波士顿、底特律、丹佛和西雅图周边地区。</blockquote></p><p> “Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”</p><p><blockquote>“卖家说，‘是时候了，让我们赚钱吧，’”匹兹堡EXP Realty的经纪人朱莉·韦尔特(Julie Welter)说，该公司的供应量增幅最大。“随着世界再次开放，绝大多数人都接种了疫苗，这给人们带来了新的舒适度。”</blockquote></p><p> The housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.</p><p><blockquote>房地产市场与正常情况相去甚远，库存仍较上年同期下降近38%，接近历史低点。但随着竞购战从东海岸到西海岸爆发，任何供应增加的迹象对买家来说都是一个受欢迎的喘息机会。更多的房源也可能有助于缓解导致稀缺的一个问题：卖家留在原地，因为很难找到其他东西来购买。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.</p><p><blockquote>在整个疫情，购房者吵着要利用创纪录的低抵押贷款利率和工作灵活性搬家，却发现稀缺的房屋很快就被吞没了。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，4月份美国现房价格中位数同比飙升19%，达到创纪录的341,600美元，帮助业主获得了股权。</blockquote></p><p> The end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.</p><p><blockquote>封锁的结束也让那些不愿意让家庭购物者在他们的厨房和卧室里闲逛的卖家走了出来。Haus首席经济学家拉尔夫·麦克劳克林(Ralph McLaughlin)表示，一些人还渴望搬到离新冠疫情让他们远离太久的家庭更近的地方。</blockquote></p><p> “People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”</p><p><blockquote>“那些考虑在两三年内出售的人可能已经加快了他们的计划，”麦克劳克林说。“他们现在正在出售，以实现去年获得的20%股权。”</blockquote></p><p> Shauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.</p><p><blockquote>爱达荷州博伊西的Redfin经纪人Shauna Pendleton表示，今年已有35名卖家与她讨论过挂牌事宜。她说，这大约是2020年同期的两倍。根据Redfin的数据，该地区是全国房价增长最快的地区之一，6月初房价同比上涨42%。</blockquote></p><p> “These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”</p><p><blockquote>“这些人大多是退休人员，”彭德尔顿在谈到她的新卖家客户时说道。“封锁让人们对自己想要住在哪里有了全新的认识。而且他们想念家人。”</blockquote></p><p> The Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Haus的数据，宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦地区是纽约人和新泽西人寻找更实惠地区的热门市场，该地区的挂牌量从5月初的极低水平攀升了30%，该地区不包括合同中的房屋。其数据。</blockquote></p><p> With houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.</p><p><blockquote>大利哈伊谷房地产经纪人集团（Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group）总裁蒂姆·特佩斯（Tim Tepes）表示，由于房屋价格远高于要价，许多当地人现在都想卖掉房子，搬到该州其他地方更便宜的地方。他说，尽管新挂牌房源不断增加，但房屋很快就找到了买家。</blockquote></p><p> Cooling Prices</p><p><blockquote>降温价格</blockquote></p><p> McLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林表示，他预计美国房价增长到今年年底将放缓至10%以下。他表示，随着买家定价过高，需求也可能降温，特别是在借贷成本开始上升的情况下。美联储官员本周表示，他们预计到2023年底将加息两次，比许多人想象的要早。</blockquote></p><p> “The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林说：“导致新供应的同一股力量可能也是降低购房者保持购房兴趣的能力的同一股力量。”“这主要是价格上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> The market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.</p><p><blockquote>新建房屋的市场也可能正在缓解。房屋建筑商一直在抬高价格，因为需求太高，他们无法跟上。住宅建筑数据提供商和咨询公司Zonda的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫(Ali Wolf)表示，现在一些买家感到有点震惊。</blockquote></p><p> About 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Zonda 5月份调查的建筑商中，约40%将买家犹豫不决列为他们面临的挑战之一，高于一个月前的约20%。她说，结果，新房市场已经从“难以忍受”的火爆变成了刚刚火爆。</blockquote></p><p> In Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.</p><p><blockquote>在德克萨斯州奥斯汀，代理人通过电话和短信联系房主，告诉他们通过出售可以赚多少钱。Local Life Realty的经纪人亚历克斯·赖特(Alex Wright)表示，这一信息开始引起共鸣。</blockquote></p><p> Wright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.</p><p><blockquote>赖特在该地区长大，她说她童年最好的朋友的父母现在已经60多岁了，想搬到中西部，离她的祖母更近。奥斯汀不再是同一个地方了。她说，它变得越来越贵，从墨西哥玉米卷到咖啡，所有东西都有一条线，更不用说住房了。</blockquote></p><p> Wright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>赖特说，她的买家欢迎更多的选择，但赢得一个家仍然是一个挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“竞争仍然非常激烈，”她说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 21:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在大流行期间，随着美国房价比以往任何时候都更高、更快地攀升，那些按兵不动的潜在房屋卖家终于开始套现，这是缓解疯狂的房地产市场严重短缺的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.</p><p><blockquote>根据购房者投资平台Haus的数据，6月初美国待售房屋数量较5月同期增长6.7%。这是自去年Covid-19封锁以来的最大增幅。在接受调查的100个大都市地区中，有54个地区的房源数量有所上升，包括费城、纽约、波士顿、底特律、丹佛和西雅图周边地区。</blockquote></p><p> “Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”</p><p><blockquote>“卖家说，‘是时候了，让我们赚钱吧，’”匹兹堡EXP Realty的经纪人朱莉·韦尔特(Julie Welter)说，该公司的供应量增幅最大。“随着世界再次开放，绝大多数人都接种了疫苗，这给人们带来了新的舒适度。”</blockquote></p><p> The housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.</p><p><blockquote>房地产市场与正常情况相去甚远，库存仍较上年同期下降近38%，接近历史低点。但随着竞购战从东海岸到西海岸爆发，任何供应增加的迹象对买家来说都是一个受欢迎的喘息机会。更多的房源也可能有助于缓解导致稀缺的一个问题：卖家留在原地，因为很难找到其他东西来购买。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.</p><p><blockquote>在整个疫情，购房者吵着要利用创纪录的低抵押贷款利率和工作灵活性搬家，却发现稀缺的房屋很快就被吞没了。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，4月份美国现房价格中位数同比飙升19%，达到创纪录的341,600美元，帮助业主获得了股权。</blockquote></p><p> The end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.</p><p><blockquote>封锁的结束也让那些不愿意让家庭购物者在他们的厨房和卧室里闲逛的卖家走了出来。Haus首席经济学家拉尔夫·麦克劳克林(Ralph McLaughlin)表示，一些人还渴望搬到离新冠疫情让他们远离太久的家庭更近的地方。</blockquote></p><p> “People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”</p><p><blockquote>“那些考虑在两三年内出售的人可能已经加快了他们的计划，”麦克劳克林说。“他们现在正在出售，以实现去年获得的20%股权。”</blockquote></p><p> Shauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.</p><p><blockquote>爱达荷州博伊西的Redfin经纪人Shauna Pendleton表示，今年已有35名卖家与她讨论过挂牌事宜。她说，这大约是2020年同期的两倍。根据Redfin的数据，该地区是全国房价增长最快的地区之一，6月初房价同比上涨42%。</blockquote></p><p> “These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”</p><p><blockquote>“这些人大多是退休人员，”彭德尔顿在谈到她的新卖家客户时说道。“封锁让人们对自己想要住在哪里有了全新的认识。而且他们想念家人。”</blockquote></p><p> The Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Haus的数据，宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦地区是纽约人和新泽西人寻找更实惠地区的热门市场，该地区的挂牌量从5月初的极低水平攀升了30%，该地区不包括合同中的房屋。其数据。</blockquote></p><p> With houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.</p><p><blockquote>大利哈伊谷房地产经纪人集团（Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group）总裁蒂姆·特佩斯（Tim Tepes）表示，由于房屋价格远高于要价，许多当地人现在都想卖掉房子，搬到该州其他地方更便宜的地方。他说，尽管新挂牌房源不断增加，但房屋很快就找到了买家。</blockquote></p><p> Cooling Prices</p><p><blockquote>降温价格</blockquote></p><p> McLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林表示，他预计美国房价增长到今年年底将放缓至10%以下。他表示，随着买家定价过高，需求也可能降温，特别是在借贷成本开始上升的情况下。美联储官员本周表示，他们预计到2023年底将加息两次，比许多人想象的要早。</blockquote></p><p> “The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林说：“导致新供应的同一股力量可能也是降低购房者保持购房兴趣的能力的同一股力量。”“这主要是价格上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> The market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.</p><p><blockquote>新建房屋的市场也可能正在缓解。房屋建筑商一直在抬高价格，因为需求太高，他们无法跟上。住宅建筑数据提供商和咨询公司Zonda的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫(Ali Wolf)表示，现在一些买家感到有点震惊。</blockquote></p><p> About 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Zonda 5月份调查的建筑商中，约40%将买家犹豫不决列为他们面临的挑战之一，高于一个月前的约20%。她说，结果，新房市场已经从“难以忍受”的火爆变成了刚刚火爆。</blockquote></p><p> In Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.</p><p><blockquote>在德克萨斯州奥斯汀，代理人通过电话和短信联系房主，告诉他们通过出售可以赚多少钱。Local Life Realty的经纪人亚历克斯·赖特(Alex Wright)表示，这一信息开始引起共鸣。</blockquote></p><p> Wright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.</p><p><blockquote>赖特在该地区长大，她说她童年最好的朋友的父母现在已经60多岁了，想搬到中西部，离她的祖母更近。奥斯汀不再是同一个地方了。她说，它变得越来越贵，从墨西哥玉米卷到咖啡，所有东西都有一条线，更不用说住房了。</blockquote></p><p> Wright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>赖特说，她的买家欢迎更多的选择，但赢得一个家仍然是一个挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“竞争仍然非常激烈，”她说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tight-u-housing-market-uncoils-124500354.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tight-u-housing-market-uncoils-124500354.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149451535","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.\nThe number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.\n“Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”\nThe housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.\nThroughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.\nThe end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.\n“People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”\nShauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.\n“These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”\nThe Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.\nWith houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.\nCooling Prices\nMcLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.\n“The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”\nThe market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.\nAbout 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.\nIn Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.\nWright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.\nWright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.\n“It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":120393791,"gmtCreate":1624295720013,"gmtModify":1634008191508,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120393791","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120398774,"gmtCreate":1624295869998,"gmtModify":1634008189726,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120398774","repostId":"1154361270","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164620407,"gmtCreate":1624201934809,"gmtModify":1634009535542,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Good","listText":"&nbsp;Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164620407","repostId":"1197466929","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164664849,"gmtCreate":1624201764481,"gmtModify":1634009538211,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164664849","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock 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15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP  facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164620685,"gmtCreate":1624201925347,"gmtModify":1634009535910,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164620685","repostId":"1192473918","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164664532,"gmtCreate":1624201778826,"gmtModify":1634009537861,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164664532","repostId":"2144086770","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120398284,"gmtCreate":1624295857148,"gmtModify":1634008190070,"author":{"id":"3580645142381164","authorId":"3580645142381164","name":"paulinechuaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580645142381164","idStr":"3580645142381164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120398284","repostId":"1155858890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}