Dollarmagnet的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Dollarmagnet

Dollarmagnet

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0勋章

2021-12-17

$Adagio Therapeutics(ADGI)$😌

2021-12-15

Oic

@深海芒果猫:为什么Grab上市之后狂跌不止

2021-12-15

Sigh

@CY_Ng:$Sea Ltd(SE)$和$MercadoLibre(MELI)$最近股价大跌，其中一个原因是因为巴西的通货膨非常高，经济正在变坏，货币乏值。这些原因导致股价大跌。我会比较看好SEA，因为巴西只是占公司一小部分的营业额，公司也在在高速发展其他国家业务。等待着更高的安全边际估值再买入

2021-12-15

👌

@价值投资为王:严重低估！管理层怒斥14亿回购，被闷杀的万亿赛道能否逆袭？

2021-12-11

👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-11

$Apple(AAPL)$200 soon

2021-12-11

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$Yeah

2021-12-10

✅

Will Apple Stock’s Rally Fizzle Out? Don’t Bet on It.<blockquote>苹果股票的涨势会失败吗？别赌了。</blockquote>

2021-11-30

$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$Chilled, playing golf ? 😂

2021-11-30

$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$How can?

2021-11-30

$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$Can someone tell me why?

2021-11-23

$iSpecimen Inc.(ISPC)$Yeah

2021-11-23

$Pfizer(PFE)$😄

2021-11-22

[Happy]

Rivian Topped Ford and GM Combined. How the Old-School Car Makers Could Get a Boost From EVs.<blockquote>Rivian超过了福特和通用的总和。老式汽车制造商如何从电动汽车中获得推动。</blockquote>

2021-11-20

$Apple(AAPL)$😇

2021-11-18

$Apple(AAPL)$😇

2021-11-11

$Apple(AAPL)$Yea

2021-11-09

✅

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-09

$AEye, Inc.(LIDR)$Yeah up up

2021-11-09

$Kyndryl(KD)$Free shares

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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>&nbsp;并不是通过传统的首次公开募股(IPO)方式上市的企业，而是采用与Altimeter Growth Corp合并的SPAC企业。这种类型上市的企业监管相对宽松一些，这也使得许多创业公司有机可乘。它们会采取夸大自身业务与市场前景的方式抬高估值上市圈钱。像之前美国电动卡车制造商RIDE与自称卡车界特斯拉NKLA就是典型的上市圈钱企业。而Grab上市时发行价为13.05美元，估值近400亿美元。要知道目前该行业的龙头Uber也才730亿美元。显然局限于东南亚Grab这个估值是有相当大的水分的，上市之后股价下跌是可以理解的。2.受疫情反复不断拖累Grab的核心业务包括打车、外卖与金融科技服务三大方面。可以说它是 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">$优步(UBER)$</a>&nbsp;、DoorDash和Venmo的合体。但实际上Grab的核心竞争力体现在其占据东南亚打车市场的主导地位。因此东南亚金融科技服务的巨头有<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>&nbsp;，外卖平台巨头有FoodPanda。而Grab打车业务受COVID疫情的影响颇为严重，目前又出现南非变种病毒Omicron。这也使得Grab股价的阴跌变得不是那么难以理解。3.公司财务状况糟糕透顶Grab在2021年上半年没有任何毛利，净亏损总额为14亿美元。这也就意味着期望Grab短时间通过业务调整","listText":"有粉丝问猫猫为什么Grab上市之后狂跌不止，猫猫今天就简单分析下原因：1.Grab上市估值泡沫过大<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$</a>&nbsp;并不是通过传统的首次公开募股(IPO)方式上市的企业，而是采用与Altimeter Growth Corp合并的SPAC企业。这种类型上市的企业监管相对宽松一些，这也使得许多创业公司有机可乘。它们会采取夸大自身业务与市场前景的方式抬高估值上市圈钱。像之前美国电动卡车制造商RIDE与自称卡车界特斯拉NKLA就是典型的上市圈钱企业。而Grab上市时发行价为13.05美元，估值近400亿美元。要知道目前该行业的龙头Uber也才730亿美元。显然局限于东南亚Grab这个估值是有相当大的水分的，上市之后股价下跌是可以理解的。2.受疫情反复不断拖累Grab的核心业务包括打车、外卖与金融科技服务三大方面。可以说它是 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">$优步(UBER)$</a>&nbsp;、DoorDash和Venmo的合体。但实际上Grab的核心竞争力体现在其占据东南亚打车市场的主导地位。因此东南亚金融科技服务的巨头有<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>&nbsp;，外卖平台巨头有FoodPanda。而Grab打车业务受COVID疫情的影响颇为严重，目前又出现南非变种病毒Omicron。这也使得Grab股价的阴跌变得不是那么难以理解。3.公司财务状况糟糕透顶Grab在2021年上半年没有任何毛利，净亏损总额为14亿美元。这也就意味着期望Grab短时间通过业务调整","text":"有粉丝问猫猫为什么Grab上市之后狂跌不止，猫猫今天就简单分析下原因：1.Grab上市估值泡沫过大$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ 并不是通过传统的首次公开募股(IPO)方式上市的企业，而是采用与Altimeter Growth Corp合并的SPAC企业。这种类型上市的企业监管相对宽松一些，这也使得许多创业公司有机可乘。它们会采取夸大自身业务与市场前景的方式抬高估值上市圈钱。像之前美国电动卡车制造商RIDE与自称卡车界特斯拉NKLA就是典型的上市圈钱企业。而Grab上市时发行价为13.05美元，估值近400亿美元。要知道目前该行业的龙头Uber也才730亿美元。显然局限于东南亚Grab这个估值是有相当大的水分的，上市之后股价下跌是可以理解的。2.受疫情反复不断拖累Grab的核心业务包括打车、外卖与金融科技服务三大方面。可以说它是 $优步(UBER)$ 、DoorDash和Venmo的合体。但实际上Grab的核心竞争力体现在其占据东南亚打车市场的主导地位。因此东南亚金融科技服务的巨头有$Sea Ltd(SE)$ ，外卖平台巨头有FoodPanda。而Grab打车业务受COVID疫情的影响颇为严重，目前又出现南非变种病毒Omicron。这也使得Grab股价的阴跌变得不是那么难以理解。3.公司财务状况糟糕透顶Grab在2021年上半年没有任何毛利，净亏损总额为14亿美元。这也就意味着期望Grab短时间通过业务调整","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65b0dc0e90fe84fe4df7faba0a52cfbe","width":"900","height":"383"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605013909","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607167404,"gmtCreate":1639500333702,"gmtModify":1639500333702,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sigh&nbsp;","listText":"Sigh&nbsp;","text":"Sigh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607167404","repostId":"604031512","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":604031512,"gmtCreate":1639277991493,"gmtModify":1639279122465,"author":{"id":"3562206499105387","authorId":"3562206499105387","name":"CY_Ng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba016392472f02387b5ae5505dbc524","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562206499105387","idStr":"3562206499105387"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">$MercadoLibre(MELI)$</a>最近股价大跌，其中一个原因是因为巴西的通货膨非常高，经济正在变坏，货币乏值。这些原因导致股价大跌。我会比较看好SEA，因为巴西只是占公司一小部分的营业额，公司也在在高速发展其他国家业务。等待着更高的安全边际估值再买入","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">$MercadoLibre(MELI)$</a>最近股价大跌，其中一个原因是因为巴西的通货膨非常高，经济正在变坏，货币乏值。这些原因导致股价大跌。我会比较看好SEA，因为巴西只是占公司一小部分的营业额，公司也在在高速发展其他国家业务。等待着更高的安全边际估值再买入","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$和$MercadoLibre(MELI)$最近股价大跌，其中一个原因是因为巴西的通货膨非常高，经济正在变坏，货币乏值。这些原因导致股价大跌。我会比较看好SEA，因为巴西只是占公司一小部分的营业额，公司也在在高速发展其他国家业务。等待着更高的安全边际估值再买入","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05419632f36d2fd65c8d3caa70ef2aec","width":"1440","height":"4049"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604031512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607167829,"gmtCreate":1639500269662,"gmtModify":1639500269662,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌&nbsp;","listText":"👌&nbsp;","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607167829","repostId":"607029702","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":607029702,"gmtCreate":1639460874968,"gmtModify":1639485609685,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"21347731130544","idStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"严重低估！管理层怒斥14亿回购，被闷杀的万亿赛道能否逆袭？","htmlText":"10个月前，互联网医疗板块是何等的风光——<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">$阿里健康(00241)$</a>&nbsp;市值曾超4000亿港币，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">$京东健康(06618)$</a>&nbsp;一经上市，短短12个交易日，股价上涨超180%！往日的辉煌似曾昨日，如今阿里健康跌没了3000亿，京东健康腰斩不止，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">$平安好医生(01833)$</a>&nbsp;更是腰斩、再腰斩，股价较最高点回落80%！惨，比中概股还惨的板块。如今，管理层终于看不下去了，平安好医生在本周一盘前发布公告，拟耗资13.8亿人民币用于股份回购，回购股份数量占发行总股份的10%！这则回购公告对低迷的股价来说无疑是一针强心剂，平安好医生当日大涨7.4%，同时带动阿里健康、京东健康盘中一度大涨超6%。在回购公告中，平安好医生管理层认为当下股价被低估，实打实的回购，是否意味着互联网医疗在闷杀之后迎来逆袭机遇？期待越高，失望越大！互联网医疗赛道曾经光芒万丈，主要是2020年疫情爆发之后，线下就诊遇阻，线上医疗服务迎来爆发，国家相关部门也出台相关制度大力支持，如2020年12月，卫健委发布《关于进一步推进“互联网+护理服务”试点工作的通知》，提出2021年扩大“互联网+护理服务”试点范围，各省至少确定1个城市开展试点。2020年11月，药监局发布的《药品网络销售监督管理办法（征求意见稿）》指出在确保电子处方来源真实、可靠的前提下，允许网络销售处方药。一系列政策加持之下，互联网医疗概念股突飞猛进，阿里健康和平安好医生股价皆较疫情前翻倍不止。","listText":"10个月前，互联网医疗板块是何等的风光——<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">$阿里健康(00241)$</a>&nbsp;市值曾超4000亿港币，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">$京东健康(06618)$</a>&nbsp;一经上市，短短12个交易日，股价上涨超180%！往日的辉煌似曾昨日，如今阿里健康跌没了3000亿，京东健康腰斩不止，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">$平安好医生(01833)$</a>&nbsp;更是腰斩、再腰斩，股价较最高点回落80%！惨，比中概股还惨的板块。如今，管理层终于看不下去了，平安好医生在本周一盘前发布公告，拟耗资13.8亿人民币用于股份回购，回购股份数量占发行总股份的10%！这则回购公告对低迷的股价来说无疑是一针强心剂，平安好医生当日大涨7.4%，同时带动阿里健康、京东健康盘中一度大涨超6%。在回购公告中，平安好医生管理层认为当下股价被低估，实打实的回购，是否意味着互联网医疗在闷杀之后迎来逆袭机遇？期待越高，失望越大！互联网医疗赛道曾经光芒万丈，主要是2020年疫情爆发之后，线下就诊遇阻，线上医疗服务迎来爆发，国家相关部门也出台相关制度大力支持，如2020年12月，卫健委发布《关于进一步推进“互联网+护理服务”试点工作的通知》，提出2021年扩大“互联网+护理服务”试点范围，各省至少确定1个城市开展试点。2020年11月，药监局发布的《药品网络销售监督管理办法（征求意见稿）》指出在确保电子处方来源真实、可靠的前提下，允许网络销售处方药。一系列政策加持之下，互联网医疗概念股突飞猛进，阿里健康和平安好医生股价皆较疫情前翻倍不止。","text":"10个月前，互联网医疗板块是何等的风光——$阿里健康(00241)$ 市值曾超4000亿港币，$京东健康(06618)$ 一经上市，短短12个交易日，股价上涨超180%！往日的辉煌似曾昨日，如今阿里健康跌没了3000亿，京东健康腰斩不止，$平安好医生(01833)$ 更是腰斩、再腰斩，股价较最高点回落80%！惨，比中概股还惨的板块。如今，管理层终于看不下去了，平安好医生在本周一盘前发布公告，拟耗资13.8亿人民币用于股份回购，回购股份数量占发行总股份的10%！这则回购公告对低迷的股价来说无疑是一针强心剂，平安好医生当日大涨7.4%，同时带动阿里健康、京东健康盘中一度大涨超6%。在回购公告中，平安好医生管理层认为当下股价被低估，实打实的回购，是否意味着互联网医疗在闷杀之后迎来逆袭机遇？期待越高，失望越大！互联网医疗赛道曾经光芒万丈，主要是2020年疫情爆发之后，线下就诊遇阻，线上医疗服务迎来爆发，国家相关部门也出台相关制度大力支持，如2020年12月，卫健委发布《关于进一步推进“互联网+护理服务”试点工作的通知》，提出2021年扩大“互联网+护理服务”试点范围，各省至少确定1个城市开展试点。2020年11月，药监局发布的《药品网络销售监督管理办法（征求意见稿）》指出在确保电子处方来源真实、可靠的前提下，允许网络销售处方药。一系列政策加持之下，互联网医疗概念股突飞猛进，阿里健康和平安好医生股价皆较疫情前翻倍不止。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19aaa5c71952be13799d63f5d9ce145b"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117dac466c6c0df779a1a656c7ddf5f6"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd0fdf04190b05a08eccc099f726c9c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607029702","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605541077,"gmtCreate":1639197953696,"gmtModify":1639197953696,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605541077","repostId":"2190002673","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605543064,"gmtCreate":1639197842284,"gmtModify":1639197842284,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>200 soon&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>200 soon&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$200 soon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71fa0d7927da3be7834ad149423bdca1","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605543064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605656648,"gmtCreate":1639157643282,"gmtModify":1639157643282,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>Yeah&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>Yeah&nbsp;","text":"$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$Yeah","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87a2243601038321f7d53cdba26ca67b","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605656648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605151878,"gmtCreate":1639133542825,"gmtModify":1639133542825,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"✅&nbsp;","listText":"✅&nbsp;","text":"✅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605151878","repostId":"1185363632","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185363632","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639125824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185363632?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 16:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Apple Stock’s Rally Fizzle Out? Don’t Bet on It.<blockquote>苹果股票的涨势会失败吗？别赌了。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185363632","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple stock has been on a tear, and nothing seems to be able to knock it down for long. When I see t","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;stock has been on a tear, and nothing seems to be able to knock it down for long. When I see that kind of acceleration, I usually start thinking it’s time to sell. The thing is, with Apple stock, it might not be.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价一直在上涨，似乎没有什么能够长期击倒它。当我看到这种加速时，我通常会开始认为是时候卖出了。问题是，对于苹果的股票来说，情况可能并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock (ticker: AAPL) has jumped 19% during the past month of trading, easily outperforming the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 0.5% rise, the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;0.9% gain, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;0.04% advance. It’s an amazing move when compared with the overall market, and how little bad news seems to hurt the stock. It even goes up when nearly everything else goes down.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票（股票代码：AAPL）在过去一个月的交易中上涨了19%，轻松超过了道琼斯工业平均指数0.5%的涨幅、标准普尔500指数0.9%的涨幅和纳斯达克综合指数0.04%的涨幅。与整体市场相比，这是一个惊人的举动，而且坏消息似乎很少伤害该股。当几乎所有其他东西都下跌时，它甚至会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The gain also marks an acceleration for the stock. On Thursday, Apple was up 0.3% at $175.58, more than 15% above its 50-day moving average of $152.30. We looked at that hoping it would serve as a sell signal, but that’s not the case. During the past five years, Apple stock has gone on to advance 2% in the two weeks after trading 15% or higher above the 50-day moving average, and 3% in the month following it. The stock was higher one month later 28 out of 39 occurrences.</p><p><blockquote>此次上涨也标志着该股的加速上涨。周四，苹果上涨0.3%，至175.58美元，较50天移动均线152.30美元高出15%以上。我们研究了这一点，希望它能作为卖出信号，但事实并非如此。在过去五年中，苹果股价在50日移动均线上方交易15%或更高后，在两周内继续上涨2%，并在接下来的一个月内上涨3%。一个月后，39次事件中有28次股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we use only the first instance of the stock rising 15% above the moving average—we eliminated any that occurred with five trading days of the first close—the stock performed OK, with shares gaining 0.9% two weeks after the first instance, and 9% during the month after.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们仅使用该股第一次上涨超过移动平均线15%的情况（我们排除了第一次收盘后五个交易日内发生的任何情况），该股也表现不错，第一次上涨两周后股价上涨0.9%，之后一个月上涨9%。</blockquote></p><p> As much as we worry that Apple’s gains can’t continue in the long-run, at least based on recent history, Apple stock could have more room to run.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们担心苹果的涨势无法长期持续，但至少从最近的历史来看，苹果股票可能还有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean Apple stock can just keep running in perpetuity. While the 15% threshold didn’t result in losses, a 20% threshold did. When that happened, Apple stock has dropped an average of 3% over the two weeks following the instance, and 2.9% month after.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着苹果股票可以永远运行。虽然15%的阈值不会导致损失，但20%的阈值会导致损失。当这种情况发生时，苹果股价在事件发生后的两周内平均下跌3%，一个月后下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock can get too strong, after all. It’s just not there yet.</p><p><blockquote>毕竟，苹果的股票可能会变得太强。只是还没到。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Apple Stock’s Rally Fizzle Out? Don’t Bet on It.<blockquote>苹果股票的涨势会失败吗？别赌了。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Apple Stock’s Rally Fizzle Out? Don’t Bet on It.<blockquote>苹果股票的涨势会失败吗？别赌了。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-10 16:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;stock has been on a tear, and nothing seems to be able to knock it down for long. When I see that kind of acceleration, I usually start thinking it’s time to sell. The thing is, with Apple stock, it might not be.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价一直在上涨，似乎没有什么能够长期击倒它。当我看到这种加速时，我通常会开始认为是时候卖出了。问题是，对于苹果的股票来说，情况可能并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock (ticker: AAPL) has jumped 19% during the past month of trading, easily outperforming the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 0.5% rise, the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;0.9% gain, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;0.04% advance. It’s an amazing move when compared with the overall market, and how little bad news seems to hurt the stock. It even goes up when nearly everything else goes down.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票（股票代码：AAPL）在过去一个月的交易中上涨了19%，轻松超过了道琼斯工业平均指数0.5%的涨幅、标准普尔500指数0.9%的涨幅和纳斯达克综合指数0.04%的涨幅。与整体市场相比，这是一个惊人的举动，而且坏消息似乎很少伤害该股。当几乎所有其他东西都下跌时，它甚至会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The gain also marks an acceleration for the stock. On Thursday, Apple was up 0.3% at $175.58, more than 15% above its 50-day moving average of $152.30. We looked at that hoping it would serve as a sell signal, but that’s not the case. During the past five years, Apple stock has gone on to advance 2% in the two weeks after trading 15% or higher above the 50-day moving average, and 3% in the month following it. The stock was higher one month later 28 out of 39 occurrences.</p><p><blockquote>此次上涨也标志着该股的加速上涨。周四，苹果上涨0.3%，至175.58美元，较50天移动均线152.30美元高出15%以上。我们研究了这一点，希望它能作为卖出信号，但事实并非如此。在过去五年中，苹果股价在50日移动均线上方交易15%或更高后，在两周内继续上涨2%，并在接下来的一个月内上涨3%。一个月后，39次事件中有28次股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we use only the first instance of the stock rising 15% above the moving average—we eliminated any that occurred with five trading days of the first close—the stock performed OK, with shares gaining 0.9% two weeks after the first instance, and 9% during the month after.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们仅使用该股第一次上涨超过移动平均线15%的情况（我们排除了第一次收盘后五个交易日内发生的任何情况），该股也表现不错，第一次上涨两周后股价上涨0.9%，之后一个月上涨9%。</blockquote></p><p> As much as we worry that Apple’s gains can’t continue in the long-run, at least based on recent history, Apple stock could have more room to run.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们担心苹果的涨势无法长期持续，但至少从最近的历史来看，苹果股票可能还有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean Apple stock can just keep running in perpetuity. While the 15% threshold didn’t result in losses, a 20% threshold did. When that happened, Apple stock has dropped an average of 3% over the two weeks following the instance, and 2.9% month after.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着苹果股票可以永远运行。虽然15%的阈值不会导致损失，但20%的阈值会导致损失。当这种情况发生时，苹果股价在事件发生后的两周内平均下跌3%，一个月后下跌2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock can get too strong, after all. It’s just not there yet.</p><p><blockquote>毕竟，苹果的股票可能会变得太强。只是还没到。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-buy-sell-rally-51639071310?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-buy-sell-rally-51639071310?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185363632","content_text":"Apple stock has been on a tear, and nothing seems to be able to knock it down for long. When I see that kind of acceleration, I usually start thinking it’s time to sell. The thing is, with Apple stock, it might not be.\nApple stock (ticker: AAPL) has jumped 19% during the past month of trading, easily outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 0.5% rise, the S&P 500’s 0.9% gain, and the Nasdaq Composite’s 0.04% advance. It’s an amazing move when compared with the overall market, and how little bad news seems to hurt the stock. It even goes up when nearly everything else goes down.\nThe gain also marks an acceleration for the stock. On Thursday, Apple was up 0.3% at $175.58, more than 15% above its 50-day moving average of $152.30. We looked at that hoping it would serve as a sell signal, but that’s not the case. During the past five years, Apple stock has gone on to advance 2% in the two weeks after trading 15% or higher above the 50-day moving average, and 3% in the month following it. The stock was higher one month later 28 out of 39 occurrences.\nEven if we use only the first instance of the stock rising 15% above the moving average—we eliminated any that occurred with five trading days of the first close—the stock performed OK, with shares gaining 0.9% two weeks after the first instance, and 9% during the month after.\nAs much as we worry that Apple’s gains can’t continue in the long-run, at least based on recent history, Apple stock could have more room to run.\nThat doesn’t mean Apple stock can just keep running in perpetuity. While the 15% threshold didn’t result in losses, a 20% threshold did. When that happened, Apple stock has dropped an average of 3% over the two weeks following the instance, and 2.9% month after.\nApple stock can get too strong, after all. It’s just not there yet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609846392,"gmtCreate":1638270318394,"gmtModify":1638270318394,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O39.SI\">$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$</a>Chilled, playing golf ? 😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/O39.SI\">$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$</a>Chilled, playing golf ? 😂","text":"$OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$Chilled, playing golf ? 😂","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5255b3d10f4648bd045a6413fc04bbef","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609846392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609168915,"gmtCreate":1638253151170,"gmtModify":1638253151170,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$</a>How can?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$</a>How can?&nbsp;","text":"$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$How can?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da20e8fba9dde31094b3103dccf947ae","width":"1125","height":"2107"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609168915","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609168075,"gmtCreate":1638253135537,"gmtModify":1638253135537,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$</a>Can someone tell me why?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$</a>Can someone tell me why?&nbsp;","text":"$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$Can someone tell me why?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7694eb6e3c04b92cb20dc85301a88b00","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609168075","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875587303,"gmtCreate":1637670124347,"gmtModify":1637670124347,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISPC\">$iSpecimen Inc.(ISPC)$</a>Yeah&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISPC\">$iSpecimen Inc.(ISPC)$</a>Yeah&nbsp;","text":"$iSpecimen Inc.(ISPC)$Yeah","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b904c0616bdf093655faa3577ab2bf6e","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875587303","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875390663,"gmtCreate":1637598697536,"gmtModify":1637598697536,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>😄","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>😄","text":"$Pfizer(PFE)$😄","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9edf8ad207550c569406efb69dd0d7ba","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875390663","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872577554,"gmtCreate":1637554548691,"gmtModify":1637554548691,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872577554","repostId":"1105163070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105163070","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637549873,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105163070?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 10:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian Topped Ford and GM Combined. How the Old-School Car Makers Could Get a Boost From EVs.<blockquote>Rivian超过了福特和通用的总和。老式汽车制造商如何从电动汽车中获得推动。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105163070","media":"Barrons","summary":"Old-school auto makers must envy the sky-high valuations of electric-vehicle start-ups. At one point","content":"<p> Old-school auto makers must envy the sky-high valuations of electric-vehicle start-ups. At one point this past week, Rivian Automotive was worth as much as&nbsp;Ford Motor&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Motors&nbsp;combined.</p><p><blockquote>老派汽车制造商一定羡慕电动汽车初创企业的天价估值。上周，Rivian汽车的市值一度相当于福特汽车和通用汽车的总和。</blockquote></p><p> But maybe there is a way for traditional auto makers to close that valuation gap: Take a page from Liberty Media’s John Malone’s playbook and issue tracking stocks. “The way to solve this is for GM and Ford to issue tracking stocks for their next-gen vehicle operations, such as EV, robo-taxi, etc.,” Scion Asset Management’s Michael Burry told <i>Barron’s</i> in an email exchange. “This is an absolute no-brainer.”</p><p><blockquote>但也许传统汽车制造商有一种方法可以缩小估值差距：借鉴Liberty Media的约翰·马龙(John Malone)的剧本，发行跟踪股票。Scion Asset Management的Michael Burry表示：“解决这个问题的方法是通用汽车和福特为其下一代汽车业务发行跟踪股票，例如电动汽车、机器人出租车等。”<i>巴伦周刊</i>在电子邮件交流中。“这绝对是显而易见的。”</blockquote></p><p> Burry is best known for a successful bet against the housing market ahead of the subprime mortgage collapse. He is a major character in Michael Lewis’s book <i>The Big Short</i>, and the movie based on it.</p><p><blockquote>伯里因在次贷崩溃之前成功押注房地产市场而闻名。他是迈克尔·刘易斯书中的主要人物<i>大空头</i>，以及根据它改编的电影。</blockquote></p><p> A tracking stock “tracks” the financial performance of a specific business unit. Shareholders of a tracking stock have a financial interest only in the division tracked, rather than in the entire business.</p><p><blockquote>跟踪股票“跟踪”特定业务部门的财务表现。跟踪股票的股东仅在被跟踪的部门中拥有财务利益，而不是在整个业务中。</blockquote></p><p> Burry’s idea builds on another, similar call from earlier in the week. On Wednesday, Data Trek Research’s Nick Colas, a former Wall Street auto analyst, wrote that Ford (F) and GM (GM) needed to spin out their EV businesses. “When it was just Tesla with a crazy valuation, they could afford to dismiss this [spinoff] idea. Now, with Rivian [RIVN], Lucid [LCID], etc., they can’t,” Colas wrote. “Automotive is a capital-intensive business, so cost of capital matters.”</p><p><blockquote>伯里的想法建立在本周早些时候另一个类似的看涨期权的基础上。周三，Data Trek Research的前华尔街汽车分析师尼克·科拉斯(Nick Colas)写道，福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)需要分拆其电动汽车业务。“当只有特斯拉的估值疯狂时，他们有能力放弃这个[分拆]想法。现在，有了Rivian[RIVN]、Lucid[LCID]等，他们就不能了，”Colas写道。“汽车是资本密集型行业，因此资本成本很重要。”</blockquote></p><p> Put it this way: Building a new EV plant that could produce, say, 500,000 EVs a year, along with the batteries to power them, costs several billion dollars. That‘s less than 1% of Tesla’s (TSLA) market cap, but roughly 5% to 10% of Ford’s or GM’s.</p><p><blockquote>这么说吧：建造一座新的电动汽车工厂，每年可以生产50万辆电动汽车，以及为它们提供动力的电池，需要花费数十亿美元。这不到特斯拉(TSLA)市值的1%，但约为福特或通用汽车的5%至10%。</blockquote></p><p> Not that Colas believes spinoffs will actually happen. Car makers are too complex, with many manufacturing plants doing several jobs for other factories in a network.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯并不认为分拆真的会发生。汽车制造商过于复杂，许多制造工厂为网络中的其他工厂做几项工作。</blockquote></p><p> Tracking stocks, though, might be feasible.Liberty Media Formula One&nbsp;(FWONA), for instance, tracks the financial performance of the Formula One racing series. And General Motors did the first tracking stock ever, for Ross Perot’s Electronic Data Systems, or EDS, back in 1984.</p><p><blockquote>不过，跟踪股票可能是可行的。例如，自由媒体一级方程式(FWONA)跟踪一级方程式赛车系列赛的财务表现。早在1984年，通用汽车就为罗斯·佩罗(Ross Perot)的电子数据系统(EDS)进行了有史以来第一次跟踪股票。</blockquote></p><p> How to value a Ford or GM tracking stock? The possibilities are tantalizing.</p><p><blockquote>如何对福特或通用跟踪股票进行估值？可能性是诱人的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford, like Rivian, is launching an EV truck and it already sells the electric Mustang Mach E. Ford’s EV business should be about four times the size of Rivian’s by 2023, if the company hits its goals.</p><p><blockquote>与Rivian一样，福特正在推出一款电动卡车，并且已经销售了电动野马Mach E。如果该公司实现其目标，到2023年，福特的电动汽车业务规模应该是Rivian的四倍左右。</blockquote></p><p> As for GM, it’s essentially the second-largest U.S. EV maker behind Tesla. GM’s global EV volume is at about 300,000 units when factoring in sales from GM’s Chinese joint ventures. With Lucid worth almost as much as GM and planning to sell roughly just 20,000 units in 2022, GM’s EV company could be worth multiples of Lucid.</p><p><blockquote>至于通用汽车，它本质上是仅次于特斯拉的美国第二大电动汽车制造商。考虑到通用汽车中国合资企业的销量，通用汽车的全球电动汽车销量约为30万辆。由于Lucid的价值几乎与通用汽车一样高，并且计划在2022年仅销售约20,000辆汽车，通用汽车的电动汽车公司的价值可能是Lucid的数倍。</blockquote></p><p> If all electric-vehicle companies and EV tracking stocks were valued like some EV shares, auto industry valuation could easily top $4 trillion, roughly four times the value before Tesla went on its epic 2020 run.</p><p><blockquote>如果所有电动汽车公司和电动汽车跟踪股票的估值都像一些电动汽车股票一样，那么汽车行业的估值很容易超过4万亿美元，大约是特斯拉2020年史诗般上涨之前价值的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> That might be a bit aggressive.</p><p><blockquote>这可能有点咄咄逼人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian Topped Ford and GM Combined. How the Old-School Car Makers Could Get a Boost From EVs.<blockquote>Rivian超过了福特和通用的总和。老式汽车制造商如何从电动汽车中获得推动。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian Topped Ford and GM Combined. How the Old-School Car Makers Could Get a Boost From EVs.<blockquote>Rivian超过了福特和通用的总和。老式汽车制造商如何从电动汽车中获得推动。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-22 10:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> Old-school auto makers must envy the sky-high valuations of electric-vehicle start-ups. At one point this past week, Rivian Automotive was worth as much as&nbsp;Ford Motor&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Motors&nbsp;combined.</p><p><blockquote>老派汽车制造商一定羡慕电动汽车初创企业的天价估值。上周，Rivian汽车的市值一度相当于福特汽车和通用汽车的总和。</blockquote></p><p> But maybe there is a way for traditional auto makers to close that valuation gap: Take a page from Liberty Media’s John Malone’s playbook and issue tracking stocks. “The way to solve this is for GM and Ford to issue tracking stocks for their next-gen vehicle operations, such as EV, robo-taxi, etc.,” Scion Asset Management’s Michael Burry told <i>Barron’s</i> in an email exchange. “This is an absolute no-brainer.”</p><p><blockquote>但也许传统汽车制造商有一种方法可以缩小估值差距：借鉴Liberty Media的约翰·马龙(John Malone)的剧本，发行跟踪股票。Scion Asset Management的Michael Burry表示：“解决这个问题的方法是通用汽车和福特为其下一代汽车业务发行跟踪股票，例如电动汽车、机器人出租车等。”<i>巴伦周刊</i>在电子邮件交流中。“这绝对是显而易见的。”</blockquote></p><p> Burry is best known for a successful bet against the housing market ahead of the subprime mortgage collapse. He is a major character in Michael Lewis’s book <i>The Big Short</i>, and the movie based on it.</p><p><blockquote>伯里因在次贷崩溃之前成功押注房地产市场而闻名。他是迈克尔·刘易斯书中的主要人物<i>大空头</i>，以及根据它改编的电影。</blockquote></p><p> A tracking stock “tracks” the financial performance of a specific business unit. Shareholders of a tracking stock have a financial interest only in the division tracked, rather than in the entire business.</p><p><blockquote>跟踪股票“跟踪”特定业务部门的财务表现。跟踪股票的股东仅在被跟踪的部门中拥有财务利益，而不是在整个业务中。</blockquote></p><p> Burry’s idea builds on another, similar call from earlier in the week. On Wednesday, Data Trek Research’s Nick Colas, a former Wall Street auto analyst, wrote that Ford (F) and GM (GM) needed to spin out their EV businesses. “When it was just Tesla with a crazy valuation, they could afford to dismiss this [spinoff] idea. Now, with Rivian [RIVN], Lucid [LCID], etc., they can’t,” Colas wrote. “Automotive is a capital-intensive business, so cost of capital matters.”</p><p><blockquote>伯里的想法建立在本周早些时候另一个类似的看涨期权的基础上。周三，Data Trek Research的前华尔街汽车分析师尼克·科拉斯(Nick Colas)写道，福特(F)和通用汽车(GM)需要分拆其电动汽车业务。“当只有特斯拉的估值疯狂时，他们有能力放弃这个[分拆]想法。现在，有了Rivian[RIVN]、Lucid[LCID]等，他们就不能了，”Colas写道。“汽车是资本密集型行业，因此资本成本很重要。”</blockquote></p><p> Put it this way: Building a new EV plant that could produce, say, 500,000 EVs a year, along with the batteries to power them, costs several billion dollars. That‘s less than 1% of Tesla’s (TSLA) market cap, but roughly 5% to 10% of Ford’s or GM’s.</p><p><blockquote>这么说吧：建造一座新的电动汽车工厂，每年可以生产50万辆电动汽车，以及为它们提供动力的电池，需要花费数十亿美元。这不到特斯拉(TSLA)市值的1%，但约为福特或通用汽车的5%至10%。</blockquote></p><p> Not that Colas believes spinoffs will actually happen. Car makers are too complex, with many manufacturing plants doing several jobs for other factories in a network.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯并不认为分拆真的会发生。汽车制造商过于复杂，许多制造工厂为网络中的其他工厂做几项工作。</blockquote></p><p> Tracking stocks, though, might be feasible.Liberty Media Formula One&nbsp;(FWONA), for instance, tracks the financial performance of the Formula One racing series. And General Motors did the first tracking stock ever, for Ross Perot’s Electronic Data Systems, or EDS, back in 1984.</p><p><blockquote>不过，跟踪股票可能是可行的。例如，自由媒体一级方程式(FWONA)跟踪一级方程式赛车系列赛的财务表现。早在1984年，通用汽车就为罗斯·佩罗(Ross Perot)的电子数据系统(EDS)进行了有史以来第一次跟踪股票。</blockquote></p><p> How to value a Ford or GM tracking stock? The possibilities are tantalizing.</p><p><blockquote>如何对福特或通用跟踪股票进行估值？可能性是诱人的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford, like Rivian, is launching an EV truck and it already sells the electric Mustang Mach E. Ford’s EV business should be about four times the size of Rivian’s by 2023, if the company hits its goals.</p><p><blockquote>与Rivian一样，福特正在推出一款电动卡车，并且已经销售了电动野马Mach E。如果该公司实现其目标，到2023年，福特的电动汽车业务规模应该是Rivian的四倍左右。</blockquote></p><p> As for GM, it’s essentially the second-largest U.S. EV maker behind Tesla. GM’s global EV volume is at about 300,000 units when factoring in sales from GM’s Chinese joint ventures. With Lucid worth almost as much as GM and planning to sell roughly just 20,000 units in 2022, GM’s EV company could be worth multiples of Lucid.</p><p><blockquote>至于通用汽车，它本质上是仅次于特斯拉的美国第二大电动汽车制造商。考虑到通用汽车中国合资企业的销量，通用汽车的全球电动汽车销量约为30万辆。由于Lucid的价值几乎与通用汽车一样高，并且计划在2022年仅销售约20,000辆汽车，通用汽车的电动汽车公司的价值可能是Lucid的数倍。</blockquote></p><p> If all electric-vehicle companies and EV tracking stocks were valued like some EV shares, auto industry valuation could easily top $4 trillion, roughly four times the value before Tesla went on its epic 2020 run.</p><p><blockquote>如果所有电动汽车公司和电动汽车跟踪股票的估值都像一些电动汽车股票一样，那么汽车行业的估值很容易超过4万亿美元，大约是特斯拉2020年史诗般上涨之前价值的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> That might be a bit aggressive.</p><p><blockquote>这可能有点咄咄逼人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/rivian-ford-gm-ev-51637373655?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/rivian-ford-gm-ev-51637373655?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105163070","content_text":"Old-school auto makers must envy the sky-high valuations of electric-vehicle start-ups. At one point this past week, Rivian Automotive was worth as much as Ford Motor and General Motors combined.\nBut maybe there is a way for traditional auto makers to close that valuation gap: Take a page from Liberty Media’s John Malone’s playbook and issue tracking stocks. “The way to solve this is for GM and Ford to issue tracking stocks for their next-gen vehicle operations, such as EV, robo-taxi, etc.,” Scion Asset Management’s Michael Burry told Barron’s in an email exchange. “This is an absolute no-brainer.”\nBurry is best known for a successful bet against the housing market ahead of the subprime mortgage collapse. He is a major character in Michael Lewis’s book The Big Short, and the movie based on it.\nA tracking stock “tracks” the financial performance of a specific business unit. Shareholders of a tracking stock have a financial interest only in the division tracked, rather than in the entire business.\nBurry’s idea builds on another, similar call from earlier in the week. On Wednesday, Data Trek Research’s Nick Colas, a former Wall Street auto analyst, wrote that Ford (F) and GM (GM) needed to spin out their EV businesses. “When it was just Tesla with a crazy valuation, they could afford to dismiss this [spinoff] idea. Now, with Rivian [RIVN], Lucid [LCID], etc., they can’t,” Colas wrote. “Automotive is a capital-intensive business, so cost of capital matters.”\nPut it this way: Building a new EV plant that could produce, say, 500,000 EVs a year, along with the batteries to power them, costs several billion dollars. That‘s less than 1% of Tesla’s (TSLA) market cap, but roughly 5% to 10% of Ford’s or GM’s.\nNot that Colas believes spinoffs will actually happen. Car makers are too complex, with many manufacturing plants doing several jobs for other factories in a network.\nTracking stocks, though, might be feasible.Liberty Media Formula One (FWONA), for instance, tracks the financial performance of the Formula One racing series. And General Motors did the first tracking stock ever, for Ross Perot’s Electronic Data Systems, or EDS, back in 1984.\nHow to value a Ford or GM tracking stock? The possibilities are tantalizing.\nFord, like Rivian, is launching an EV truck and it already sells the electric Mustang Mach E. Ford’s EV business should be about four times the size of Rivian’s by 2023, if the company hits its goals.\nAs for GM, it’s essentially the second-largest U.S. EV maker behind Tesla. GM’s global EV volume is at about 300,000 units when factoring in sales from GM’s Chinese joint ventures. With Lucid worth almost as much as GM and planning to sell roughly just 20,000 units in 2022, GM’s EV company could be worth multiples of Lucid.\nIf all electric-vehicle companies and EV tracking stocks were valued like some EV shares, auto industry valuation could easily top $4 trillion, roughly four times the value before Tesla went on its epic 2020 run.\nThat might be a bit aggressive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876422590,"gmtCreate":1637343553794,"gmtModify":1637343553794,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858161879","repostId":"1177255738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177255738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634953820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177255738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-23 09:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177255738","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li>  <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li>  <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的美国陆军合同对该公司来说是一个巨大的新闻，因为合同规模很大。大局也很重要——PLTR极具竞争力且值得信赖。</li><li>PLTR是仅有的四家获得国防部认证的IL-5公司之一，并且正在转向IL-6，这应该会进一步增加其护城河。</li><li>该公司的利润似乎很昂贵，但当我们考虑PLTR的增长前景时，股票可能是一项相当不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)仍然是一家非常令人兴奋、快速增长的科技公司，其估值仍然很高。最近与美国陆军签订的合同再次表明，其专有解决方案是独一无二的，并且Palantir Technologies在政府机构中根深蒂固，这应该使该公司能够实现多年的强劲增长。Palantir Technologies并不是一个低风险的选择，但我确实相信，从长远来看，投资者可以从这只股票中看到可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir &amp; US Army Contract</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir与美国陆军合同</b></blockquote></p><p> In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth&nbsp;$823 million&nbsp;that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the&nbsp;<i>Capability Drop 2</i>&nbsp;(CD-2) program.</p><p><blockquote>10月初，Palantir Technologies宣布被美国陆军选中签订一份价值8.23亿美元的合同，该公司将为<i>能力下降2</i>（CD-2）程序。</blockquote></p><p> For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Palantir这样目前年收入约为15亿美元的公司来说，一份8亿多美元的合同当然是巨大的，但应该指出的是，这份合同不会让Palantir在短时间内获得所有这些收入。最重要的是，不一定所有收入都会流向Palantir Technologies，因为其他供应商（例如硬件供应商）也可能会从合同中获得一些份额。一位更为悲观的分析师指出，政府已要求在2022财年为该合同提供约1亿美元，这表明Palantir需要几年时间才能从该合同中获得所有收入。</blockquote></p><p> Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为这份合同是一个重大的积极因素，原因有几个。首先，美国陆军将合同授予Palantir Technologies的决定表明，Palantir仍然是国防领域技术基础的先驱，尽管一些分析师和评论者认为Palantir的产品/服务非常商品化。如果是这样的话，该合同可能会交给另一家以较低价格销售其服务和产品的公司——请记住，Palantir要求全公司毛利率超过70%。顾客不会愿意为任何人都可以提供的商品化产品支付那么多钱。</blockquote></p><p> The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国陆军授予如此大的单个合同也表明，官员们认为Palantir有能力交付大规模合同，尽管从收入和雇主数量来看，Palantir Technologies目前并不是一家非常大的公司。官员们似乎相信Palantir能够很好地执行这些合同，这反过来表明Palantir未来应该有很大的机会获得其他类似规模的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies是仅有的四家获得国防部SaaS 5级(IL-5)批准的公司之一，这一事实也表明了Palantir在国防领域相对于可能的竞争对手的强势地位：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>仅此一点就为Palantir提供了相对于未获准提供如此关键服务的竞争对手的主要优势。一旦Palantir获得IL-6批准（届时该公司还可以处理国防部机密信息），Palantir相对于竞争对手的护城河应该会进一步扩大。Palantir管理层认为，这将在可预见的未来发生，Palantir很可能成为第一家获得IL-6整体批准的公司。未来几年，国防市场可能是Palantir Technologies的巨大市场机遇：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：nscai.gov（完整报告第67页）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&amp;D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家人工智能安全委员会预测，到2030年，人工智能研发投资将增长至接近800亿美元。Palantir Technologies将无法应对所有市场，因为这包括硬件、实现等，但是即使是几个百分点的市场份额也将变成年产值10亿美元以上的业务。考虑到国防只是Palantir Technologies能够解决的众多市场之一，这似乎非常令人鼓舞——特别是当我们考虑到Palantir今年在该公司活跃的所有市场的收入约为15亿美元时。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US&nbsp;Space Force.</p><p><blockquote>得益于与军事客户的其他合同，Palantir Technologies证明了美国陆军合同并非例外。相反，Palantir似乎与国防客户合作良好，这就是为什么该公司一次又一次地被选中签订新合同——甚至被美国太空军选中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR库存预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的管理层相信，该公司有一天将成为世界上最重要的软件公司，尽管我认为这远不能保证，但我确实相信Palantir在未来许多年都具有巨大的增长潜力。它的解决方案可能会在商业以及军事和安全领域产生巨大影响。得益于与客户的密切关系（如上所述）、良好的业绩记录和强大的人才——这就是股票薪酬如此之高的原因，因为人才价格昂贵——Palantir应该能够在整个2020年代实现巨大的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with&nbsp;analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为2024年的收入将达到40亿美元左右，这与分析师的预期非常一致。在作为上市公司的四个季度中，Palantir在这两条线上四次超出了分析师的预期，因此该公司正在建立一个非常明确的超出预期的业绩记录。当然，不能保证这种情况在未来也会发生，但我确实相信Palantir很有可能在2024年产生超过40亿美元的收入。我们仍然采用40亿美元的估计，并假设未来三年收入增长30%，2028年至2030年间增长25%。如果这种情况发生，那么Palantir到2030年的收入将达到170亿美元，预计九年内将增长约11倍。一家年销售额170亿美元、收入增长25%的公司的估值是多少？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)、Salesforce.com(CRM)和Adobe(ADBE)等主要软件公司目前的增长率为15%-25%，目前的交易价格是今年销售额的11至19倍。考虑到在我们的场景中，Palantir的增长速度确实比这三家公司快一点，我相信15倍的销售倍数似乎一点也不离谱。根据170亿美元的估计销售额，九年后我们的市值将达到2550亿美元，大约是当今480亿美元市值的5.3倍。然而，这并不意味着PLTR的股价将上涨430%，因为我们还必须考虑该公司的股票数量，该数量一直在上升，并且可能会继续上升。很难预测九年后股票数量的确切情况，因为我们不知道未来股权薪酬的轨迹，而且PLTR未来可能会开始回购股票。如果我们假设股票数量每年增加1亿股（根据YCharts的数据，去年股票数量增加了8000万股），那么2030年股票数量将达到约29亿股。根据2550亿美元的预期市值，我们的股价约为90美元，大约是今天的3.5倍。换句话说，如果这种情况成真，投资者将获得250%左右的9年回报率，即每年约15%。例如，这并不像过去九年持有AMZN(AMZN)时获得的回报那么出色，但我相信15%左右的年回报率仍然非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，人们可以认为这种情况是不现实的，增长率应该更高或更低，或者2030年的销售倍数应该不同。尽管如此，我相信这是一个可靠的基本情况<i>可能</i>考虑到Palantir Technologies在许多不同行业的巨大潜力，请保持保守。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票：现在是买入或卖出的好时机吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p><p><blockquote>与我主要报道的股票和我主要投资的股票相比，Palantir是一只非常不同的股票。按照目前的价格，PLTR乍一看似乎相当昂贵，其预期市盈率约为150倍。然而，该公司提供了巨大的增长潜力、有吸引力的基本面，并且拥有巨大的护城河，一旦PLTR获得IL-6国防部批准，该护城河可能会进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不是一只低风险股票，因为该公司与其他高估值交易的高增长股票一样，容易受到利率变动的影响。最重要的是，盈利能力尚未得到持久的证实，我们也不知道股权激励费用的轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我相信Palantir是一家高增长公司，从长远来看可以带来两位数的总回报，并且由于巨大且快速增长的潜在市场和宽阔的护城河，我愿意投资这家公司——不像许多其他我认为没有吸引力的高估值成长型公司。当然，Palantir Technologies是否适合您的投资组合取决于您的个人目标和风险承受能力，但如果PLTR到本世纪末至少增长三倍，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一种引发恐惧的收入来源吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The primary goal of the&nbsp;Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio&nbsp;is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p><p><blockquote>现金流王国收益投资组合的主要目标是产生7%-10%范围内的总体收益率。我们通过结合几种不同的收入流来形成有吸引力、稳定的投资组合支出来实现这一目标。投资组合的价格可能会波动，但收入流保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-23 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li>  <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li>  <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的美国陆军合同对该公司来说是一个巨大的新闻，因为合同规模很大。大局也很重要——PLTR极具竞争力且值得信赖。</li><li>PLTR是仅有的四家获得国防部认证的IL-5公司之一，并且正在转向IL-6，这应该会进一步增加其护城河。</li><li>该公司的利润似乎很昂贵，但当我们考虑PLTR的增长前景时，股票可能是一项相当不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)仍然是一家非常令人兴奋、快速增长的科技公司，其估值仍然很高。最近与美国陆军签订的合同再次表明，其专有解决方案是独一无二的，并且Palantir Technologies在政府机构中根深蒂固，这应该使该公司能够实现多年的强劲增长。Palantir Technologies并不是一个低风险的选择，但我确实相信，从长远来看，投资者可以从这只股票中看到可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir &amp; US Army Contract</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir与美国陆军合同</b></blockquote></p><p> In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth&nbsp;$823 million&nbsp;that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the&nbsp;<i>Capability Drop 2</i>&nbsp;(CD-2) program.</p><p><blockquote>10月初，Palantir Technologies宣布被美国陆军选中签订一份价值8.23亿美元的合同，该公司将为<i>能力下降2</i>（CD-2）程序。</blockquote></p><p> For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Palantir这样目前年收入约为15亿美元的公司来说，一份8亿多美元的合同当然是巨大的，但应该指出的是，这份合同不会让Palantir在短时间内获得所有这些收入。最重要的是，不一定所有收入都会流向Palantir Technologies，因为其他供应商（例如硬件供应商）也可能会从合同中获得一些份额。一位更为悲观的分析师指出，政府已要求在2022财年为该合同提供约1亿美元，这表明Palantir需要几年时间才能从该合同中获得所有收入。</blockquote></p><p> Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为这份合同是一个重大的积极因素，原因有几个。首先，美国陆军将合同授予Palantir Technologies的决定表明，Palantir仍然是国防领域技术基础的先驱，尽管一些分析师和评论者认为Palantir的产品/服务非常商品化。如果是这样的话，该合同可能会交给另一家以较低价格销售其服务和产品的公司——请记住，Palantir要求全公司毛利率超过70%。顾客不会愿意为任何人都可以提供的商品化产品支付那么多钱。</blockquote></p><p> The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国陆军授予如此大的单个合同也表明，官员们认为Palantir有能力交付大规模合同，尽管从收入和雇主数量来看，Palantir Technologies目前并不是一家非常大的公司。官员们似乎相信Palantir能够很好地执行这些合同，这反过来表明Palantir未来应该有很大的机会获得其他类似规模的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies是仅有的四家获得国防部SaaS 5级(IL-5)批准的公司之一，这一事实也表明了Palantir在国防领域相对于可能的竞争对手的强势地位：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>仅此一点就为Palantir提供了相对于未获准提供如此关键服务的竞争对手的主要优势。一旦Palantir获得IL-6批准（届时该公司还可以处理国防部机密信息），Palantir相对于竞争对手的护城河应该会进一步扩大。Palantir管理层认为，这将在可预见的未来发生，Palantir很可能成为第一家获得IL-6整体批准的公司。未来几年，国防市场可能是Palantir Technologies的巨大市场机遇：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：nscai.gov（完整报告第67页）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&amp;D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家人工智能安全委员会预测，到2030年，人工智能研发投资将增长至接近800亿美元。Palantir Technologies将无法应对所有市场，因为这包括硬件、实现等，但是即使是几个百分点的市场份额也将变成年产值10亿美元以上的业务。考虑到国防只是Palantir Technologies能够解决的众多市场之一，这似乎非常令人鼓舞——特别是当我们考虑到Palantir今年在该公司活跃的所有市场的收入约为15亿美元时。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US&nbsp;Space Force.</p><p><blockquote>得益于与军事客户的其他合同，Palantir Technologies证明了美国陆军合同并非例外。相反，Palantir似乎与国防客户合作良好，这就是为什么该公司一次又一次地被选中签订新合同——甚至被美国太空军选中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR库存预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的管理层相信，该公司有一天将成为世界上最重要的软件公司，尽管我认为这远不能保证，但我确实相信Palantir在未来许多年都具有巨大的增长潜力。它的解决方案可能会在商业以及军事和安全领域产生巨大影响。得益于与客户的密切关系（如上所述）、良好的业绩记录和强大的人才——这就是股票薪酬如此之高的原因，因为人才价格昂贵——Palantir应该能够在整个2020年代实现巨大的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with&nbsp;analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为2024年的收入将达到40亿美元左右，这与分析师的预期非常一致。在作为上市公司的四个季度中，Palantir在这两条线上四次超出了分析师的预期，因此该公司正在建立一个非常明确的超出预期的业绩记录。当然，不能保证这种情况在未来也会发生，但我确实相信Palantir很有可能在2024年产生超过40亿美元的收入。我们仍然采用40亿美元的估计，并假设未来三年收入增长30%，2028年至2030年间增长25%。如果这种情况发生，那么Palantir到2030年的收入将达到170亿美元，预计九年内将增长约11倍。一家年销售额170亿美元、收入增长25%的公司的估值是多少？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)、Salesforce.com(CRM)和Adobe(ADBE)等主要软件公司目前的增长率为15%-25%，目前的交易价格是今年销售额的11至19倍。考虑到在我们的场景中，Palantir的增长速度确实比这三家公司快一点，我相信15倍的销售倍数似乎一点也不离谱。根据170亿美元的估计销售额，九年后我们的市值将达到2550亿美元，大约是当今480亿美元市值的5.3倍。然而，这并不意味着PLTR的股价将上涨430%，因为我们还必须考虑该公司的股票数量，该数量一直在上升，并且可能会继续上升。很难预测九年后股票数量的确切情况，因为我们不知道未来股权薪酬的轨迹，而且PLTR未来可能会开始回购股票。如果我们假设股票数量每年增加1亿股（根据YCharts的数据，去年股票数量增加了8000万股），那么2030年股票数量将达到约29亿股。根据2550亿美元的预期市值，我们的股价约为90美元，大约是今天的3.5倍。换句话说，如果这种情况成真，投资者将获得250%左右的9年回报率，即每年约15%。例如，这并不像过去九年持有AMZN(AMZN)时获得的回报那么出色，但我相信15%左右的年回报率仍然非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，人们可以认为这种情况是不现实的，增长率应该更高或更低，或者2030年的销售倍数应该不同。尽管如此，我相信这是一个可靠的基本情况<i>可能</i>考虑到Palantir Technologies在许多不同行业的巨大潜力，请保持保守。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票：现在是买入或卖出的好时机吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p><p><blockquote>与我主要报道的股票和我主要投资的股票相比，Palantir是一只非常不同的股票。按照目前的价格，PLTR乍一看似乎相当昂贵，其预期市盈率约为150倍。然而，该公司提供了巨大的增长潜力、有吸引力的基本面，并且拥有巨大的护城河，一旦PLTR获得IL-6国防部批准，该护城河可能会进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不是一只低风险股票，因为该公司与其他高估值交易的高增长股票一样，容易受到利率变动的影响。最重要的是，盈利能力尚未得到持久的证实，我们也不知道股权激励费用的轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我相信Palantir是一家高增长公司，从长远来看可以带来两位数的总回报，并且由于巨大且快速增长的潜在市场和宽阔的护城河，我愿意投资这家公司——不像许多其他我认为没有吸引力的高估值成长型公司。当然，Palantir Technologies是否适合您的投资组合取决于您的个人目标和风险承受能力，但如果PLTR到本世纪末至少增长三倍，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一种引发恐惧的收入来源吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The primary goal of the&nbsp;Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio&nbsp;is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p><p><blockquote>现金流王国收益投资组合的主要目标是产生7%-10%范围内的总体收益率。我们通过结合几种不同的收入流来形成有吸引力、稳定的投资组合支出来实现这一目标。投资组合的价格可能会波动，但收入流保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177255738","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.\nPLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.\nThe company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images News\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.\nPalantir & US Army Contract\nIn early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth $823 million that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the Capability Drop 2 (CD-2) program.\nFor a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst noted that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.\nStill, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.\nThe contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.\nPalantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:\nSource: Palantir\nThis alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:\nSource: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)\nThe National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.\nPalantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US Space Force.\nPLTR Stock Forecast\nPalantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.\nManagement believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?\nData by YCharts\nMajor software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.\nOne can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario thatmightbe on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.\nPLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?\nPalantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.\nPalantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.\nNevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.\nIs This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?\n\nThe primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605541077,"gmtCreate":1639197953696,"gmtModify":1639197953696,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605541077","repostId":"2190002673","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605656648,"gmtCreate":1639157643282,"gmtModify":1639157643282,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>Yeah&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>Yeah&nbsp;","text":"$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$Yeah","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87a2243601038321f7d53cdba26ca67b","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605656648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875587303,"gmtCreate":1637670124347,"gmtModify":1637670124347,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISPC\">$iSpecimen Inc.(ISPC)$</a>Yeah&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISPC\">$iSpecimen Inc.(ISPC)$</a>Yeah&nbsp;","text":"$iSpecimen Inc.(ISPC)$Yeah","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b904c0616bdf093655faa3577ab2bf6e","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875587303","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875390663,"gmtCreate":1637598697536,"gmtModify":1637598697536,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>😄","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>😄","text":"$Pfizer(PFE)$😄","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9edf8ad207550c569406efb69dd0d7ba","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875390663","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845645937,"gmtCreate":1636336947744,"gmtModify":1636336947744,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>Buy late but earning still 😙","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a>Buy late but earning still 😙","text":"$Pfizer(PFE)$Buy late but earning still 😙","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547a13dde374fc48c1a0958efaa4aeb4","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845645937","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":851676534,"gmtCreate":1634908657261,"gmtModify":1634908657261,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>Yeah!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>Yeah!","text":"$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$Yeah!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c7e55359f502528fc207237dbb6210","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851676534","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605543064,"gmtCreate":1639197842284,"gmtModify":1639197842284,"author":{"id":"3581759007454298","authorId":"3581759007454298","name":"Dollarmagnet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b328f4d9519066ee1561a31073b9eee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581759007454298","idStr":"3581759007454298"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>200 soon&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>200 soon&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$200 soon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71fa0d7927da3be7834ad149423bdca1","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605543064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}