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2021-04-20
Comment to my post leh
Reflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals<blockquote>通货再膨胀交易目前仍然是一个不错的选择。尝试银行、小盘股和周期性股票</blockquote>
1528b3bd
2021-04-20
Why I commented already, but my 10 coins not activated?
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1528b3bd
2021-04-20
Interesting
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1528b3bd
2021-04-20
Will monitor
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去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals<blockquote>通货再膨胀交易目前仍然是一个不错的选择。尝试银行、小盘股和周期性股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116084515","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce","content":"<p>Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?</p><p><blockquote>经济增长预测远未见顶。企业盈利也是如此吗？</blockquote></p><p>The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 trillion in March. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research points out that such sales are up 50% since bottoming last April while the 12-month moving average for the series is also at a record level.</p><p><blockquote>美国商务部上周四报告称，经季节性调整后，3月份零售额升至创纪录的7.4万亿美元。Yardeni Research的Ed Yardeni指出，自去年4月触底以来，此类销售额增长了50%，而该系列的12个月移动平均值也处于创纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p>Companies across the retail sector are benefiting from the latest round of stimulus checks to households. “Americans have been going on a supermarket sweep thanks to the three rounds of pandemic relief checks,” Yardeni says, estimating that about 250 million Americans have received checks that add up to roughly $800 billion in cash available for sweeping through supermarkets, stores, and shopping malls.</p><p><blockquote>整个零售行业的公司都受益于最新一轮针对家庭的刺激检查。亚德尼说：“由于三轮大流行救济支票，美国人一直在超市进行清扫。”他估计约有2.5亿美国人收到了总计约8000亿美元现金的支票，可用于清扫超市、商店和购物中心。</blockquote></p><p>On the heels of the strong retail sales report, economists have been taking 2021 gross domestic product forecasts higher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter GDP estimate is now a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, up from 6% before the March retail sales data.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的零售销售报告发布后，经济学家一直在上调2021年国内生产总值预测。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的GDPNow模型对第一季度GDP的估计目前为经季节调整后的8.3%，高于3月份零售销售数据前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>As Sean Darby, global equities strategist at Jefferies puts it, 2021-22 economic growth will resemble a 100-meter relay race, with the baton passing from China to the U.S. and then the U.K., Japan and Europe sprinting together. In that respect, he says, the S&P 500 will continue to benefit from the theme of global reflation well into the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>正如杰富瑞（Jefferies）全球股票策略师肖恩·达比（Sean Darby）所说，2021-22年的经济增长将类似于一场100米接力赛，接力棒从中国传递到美国，然后英国、日本和欧洲一起冲刺。他表示，在这方面，标普500将继续受益于全球通货再膨胀的主题，直到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p>In addition to extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy and rising Covid-19 vaccination numbers alongside falling daily new cases, Darby points to depleted business stockpiles as rationale for an ongoing acceleration in U.S. economic activity. “U.S. 2021 GDP forecasts are far from peaking,” he says, with low inventories and supply-chain issues holding back some fire—meaning the U.S. recovery is understated given latent demand.</p><p><blockquote>除了非凡的财政和货币政策、Covid-19疫苗接种数量的上升以及每日新增病例的下降之外，达比还指出，企业库存的枯竭是美国经济活动持续加速的理由。他表示：“美国2021年GDP预测远未见顶。”低库存和供应链问题阻碍了一些发展，这意味着考虑到潜在需求，美国的复苏被低估了。</blockquote></p><p>As such, Darby predicts roughly 30% earnings growth for theS&P 500this year versus last. Some forecasters are even more bullish. AtMorgan Stanley,for example, strategists’ base-case for 2021 S&P 500 earnings is $193 a share versus Darby’s $180.</p><p><blockquote>因此，达比预测今年标准普尔500指数的盈利将比去年增长约30%。一些预测者甚至更加乐观。例如，在摩根士丹利，策略师对标普500 2021年盈利的基本假设是每股193美元，而达比为每股180美元。</blockquote></p><p>But while broad economic growth may continue to boom for a while, Darby suggests the same may not be so true for corporate earnings. In particular, investors should consider two underappreciated risks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管广泛的经济增长可能会持续一段时间，但达比表示，企业盈利的情况可能并非如此。特别是，投资者应该考虑两个被低估的风险。</blockquote></p><p>“The V-shape earnings growth is coming to a summit,” he says. “What does concern us is the possibility of peak margins given the ferocity of input costs and the growing likelihood of changes in the corporate tax rate.”</p><p><blockquote>“V型盈利增长即将达到顶峰，”他表示。“我们真正担心的是，考虑到投入成本的凶猛以及公司税率变化的可能性越来越大，利润率可能会达到峰值。”</blockquote></p><p>On the first point, input costs, the 4.2% year-over-year gain in the March producer-price index was the biggest in 47 years. Survey data reveal a huge mismatch between producers’ inventory levels and incoming orders and backlogs, Morgan Stanley notes, while the latest small-business survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows a record number of firms plan to raise prices.</p><p><blockquote>关于第一点，投入成本，3月份生产者价格指数4.2%的同比涨幅是47年来最大的。摩根士丹利指出，调查数据显示生产商的库存水平与新订单和积压订单之间存在巨大不匹配，而全国独立企业联合会最新的小企业调查显示，计划提高价格的公司数量创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>That feedback loop onto corporate profit margins, to the extent companies eat higher input prices instead of immediately passing them onto their customers, may undermine first-quarter earnings (the reporting season that is currently underway) as well as second-quarter earnings, Darby says.</p><p><blockquote>达比说，这种对企业利润率的反馈循环，即企业接受更高的投入价格，而不是立即将其转嫁给客户，可能会损害第一季度收益（目前正在进行的报告季）和第二季度收益。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. That’s down from the 35% before 2017 but above the current 21% rate. In addition, Biden’s plan would lift the minimum tax on foreign profits of U.S. companies to 21% from 10.5%. Those changes and others would add up to $2 trillion in corporate tax increases over 15 years to pay for his infrastructure plan.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，拜登政府提议将企业税率提高至28%。这低于2017年之前的35%，但高于目前的21%。此外，拜登的计划将把美国公司海外利润的最低税率从10.5%提高到21%。这些变化和其他变化将在15年内增加高达2万亿美元的公司税，以支付他的基础设施计划。</blockquote></p><p>What’s the upshot for investors? Putting all that together, Darby says investors should stick with the so-called reflation trade, or the bet that a quickly improving economy would benefit riskiest assets most, such as small-cap stocks over large-caps. Rising growth and inflation expectations should lead to a steeper yield curve, to the benefit of banks and consumer finance companies. Last, Darby says he remains bullish on cyclical stocks (those most closely tied to economic health, such as retail and restaurants).</p><p><blockquote>投资者的结局是什么？达比表示，综上所述，投资者应该坚持所谓的通货再膨胀交易，或者押注快速改善的经济将使风险最高的资产受益最多，例如小盘股而不是大盘股。增长和通胀预期的上升应该会导致收益率曲线变陡，这对银行和消费金融公司有利。最后，达比表示，他仍然看好周期性股票（那些与经济健康关系最密切的股票，例如零售和餐馆）。</blockquote></p><p>Such stocks, of course, have had good runs so far this year. TheFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) andConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) are each up 20% and 11% year-to-date, respectively, far outpacing the 3% rise inConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP). That’s as theRussell 2000is up 13% versus theS&P 500’s10% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年迄今为止，此类股票表现良好。金融精选行业SPDR基金（股票代码：XLF）和非必需消费品精选行业SPDR基金（XLY）今年迄今分别上涨20%和11%，远远超过必需消费品精选行业SPDR基金（XLP）3%的涨幅）。这是因为罗素2000指数今年上涨了13%，而标准普尔500指数今年上涨了10%。</blockquote></p><p>In light of expectations for continued economic momentum and given where the downside risks of rising input prices and taxes would most heavily fall, those segments of the stock market seem to remain good bets.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于对经济持续增长势头的预期，并考虑到投入价格和税收上涨的下行风险最大的地方，股市的这些部分似乎仍然是不错的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals<blockquote>通货再膨胀交易目前仍然是一个不错的选择。尝试银行、小盘股和周期性股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReflation Trade Remains a Good Bet for Now. Try Banks, Small-Caps, and Cyclicals<blockquote>通货再膨胀交易目前仍然是一个不错的选择。尝试银行、小盘股和周期性股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-20 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?</p><p><blockquote>经济增长预测远未见顶。企业盈利也是如此吗？</blockquote></p><p>The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 trillion in March. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research points out that such sales are up 50% since bottoming last April while the 12-month moving average for the series is also at a record level.</p><p><blockquote>美国商务部上周四报告称，经季节性调整后，3月份零售额升至创纪录的7.4万亿美元。Yardeni Research的Ed Yardeni指出，自去年4月触底以来，此类销售额增长了50%，而该系列的12个月移动平均值也处于创纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p>Companies across the retail sector are benefiting from the latest round of stimulus checks to households. “Americans have been going on a supermarket sweep thanks to the three rounds of pandemic relief checks,” Yardeni says, estimating that about 250 million Americans have received checks that add up to roughly $800 billion in cash available for sweeping through supermarkets, stores, and shopping malls.</p><p><blockquote>整个零售行业的公司都受益于最新一轮针对家庭的刺激检查。亚德尼说：“由于三轮大流行救济支票，美国人一直在超市进行清扫。”他估计约有2.5亿美国人收到了总计约8000亿美元现金的支票，可用于清扫超市、商店和购物中心。</blockquote></p><p>On the heels of the strong retail sales report, economists have been taking 2021 gross domestic product forecasts higher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter GDP estimate is now a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, up from 6% before the March retail sales data.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的零售销售报告发布后，经济学家一直在上调2021年国内生产总值预测。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的GDPNow模型对第一季度GDP的估计目前为经季节调整后的8.3%，高于3月份零售销售数据前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>As Sean Darby, global equities strategist at Jefferies puts it, 2021-22 economic growth will resemble a 100-meter relay race, with the baton passing from China to the U.S. and then the U.K., Japan and Europe sprinting together. In that respect, he says, the S&P 500 will continue to benefit from the theme of global reflation well into the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>正如杰富瑞（Jefferies）全球股票策略师肖恩·达比（Sean Darby）所说，2021-22年的经济增长将类似于一场100米接力赛，接力棒从中国传递到美国，然后英国、日本和欧洲一起冲刺。他表示，在这方面，标普500将继续受益于全球通货再膨胀的主题，直到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p>In addition to extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy and rising Covid-19 vaccination numbers alongside falling daily new cases, Darby points to depleted business stockpiles as rationale for an ongoing acceleration in U.S. economic activity. “U.S. 2021 GDP forecasts are far from peaking,” he says, with low inventories and supply-chain issues holding back some fire—meaning the U.S. recovery is understated given latent demand.</p><p><blockquote>除了非凡的财政和货币政策、Covid-19疫苗接种数量的上升以及每日新增病例的下降之外，达比还指出，企业库存的枯竭是美国经济活动持续加速的理由。他表示：“美国2021年GDP预测远未见顶。”低库存和供应链问题阻碍了一些发展，这意味着考虑到潜在需求，美国的复苏被低估了。</blockquote></p><p>As such, Darby predicts roughly 30% earnings growth for theS&P 500this year versus last. Some forecasters are even more bullish. AtMorgan Stanley,for example, strategists’ base-case for 2021 S&P 500 earnings is $193 a share versus Darby’s $180.</p><p><blockquote>因此，达比预测今年标准普尔500指数的盈利将比去年增长约30%。一些预测者甚至更加乐观。例如，在摩根士丹利，策略师对标普500 2021年盈利的基本假设是每股193美元，而达比为每股180美元。</blockquote></p><p>But while broad economic growth may continue to boom for a while, Darby suggests the same may not be so true for corporate earnings. In particular, investors should consider two underappreciated risks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管广泛的经济增长可能会持续一段时间，但达比表示，企业盈利的情况可能并非如此。特别是，投资者应该考虑两个被低估的风险。</blockquote></p><p>“The V-shape earnings growth is coming to a summit,” he says. “What does concern us is the possibility of peak margins given the ferocity of input costs and the growing likelihood of changes in the corporate tax rate.”</p><p><blockquote>“V型盈利增长即将达到顶峰，”他表示。“我们真正担心的是，考虑到投入成本的凶猛以及公司税率变化的可能性越来越大，利润率可能会达到峰值。”</blockquote></p><p>On the first point, input costs, the 4.2% year-over-year gain in the March producer-price index was the biggest in 47 years. Survey data reveal a huge mismatch between producers’ inventory levels and incoming orders and backlogs, Morgan Stanley notes, while the latest small-business survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows a record number of firms plan to raise prices.</p><p><blockquote>关于第一点，投入成本，3月份生产者价格指数4.2%的同比涨幅是47年来最大的。摩根士丹利指出，调查数据显示生产商的库存水平与新订单和积压订单之间存在巨大不匹配，而全国独立企业联合会最新的小企业调查显示，计划提高价格的公司数量创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>That feedback loop onto corporate profit margins, to the extent companies eat higher input prices instead of immediately passing them onto their customers, may undermine first-quarter earnings (the reporting season that is currently underway) as well as second-quarter earnings, Darby says.</p><p><blockquote>达比说，这种对企业利润率的反馈循环，即企业接受更高的投入价格，而不是立即将其转嫁给客户，可能会损害第一季度收益（目前正在进行的报告季）和第二季度收益。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. That’s down from the 35% before 2017 but above the current 21% rate. In addition, Biden’s plan would lift the minimum tax on foreign profits of U.S. companies to 21% from 10.5%. Those changes and others would add up to $2 trillion in corporate tax increases over 15 years to pay for his infrastructure plan.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，拜登政府提议将企业税率提高至28%。这低于2017年之前的35%，但高于目前的21%。此外，拜登的计划将把美国公司海外利润的最低税率从10.5%提高到21%。这些变化和其他变化将在15年内增加高达2万亿美元的公司税，以支付他的基础设施计划。</blockquote></p><p>What’s the upshot for investors? Putting all that together, Darby says investors should stick with the so-called reflation trade, or the bet that a quickly improving economy would benefit riskiest assets most, such as small-cap stocks over large-caps. Rising growth and inflation expectations should lead to a steeper yield curve, to the benefit of banks and consumer finance companies. Last, Darby says he remains bullish on cyclical stocks (those most closely tied to economic health, such as retail and restaurants).</p><p><blockquote>投资者的结局是什么？达比表示，综上所述，投资者应该坚持所谓的通货再膨胀交易，或者押注快速改善的经济将使风险最高的资产受益最多，例如小盘股而不是大盘股。增长和通胀预期的上升应该会导致收益率曲线变陡，这对银行和消费金融公司有利。最后，达比表示，他仍然看好周期性股票（那些与经济健康关系最密切的股票，例如零售和餐馆）。</blockquote></p><p>Such stocks, of course, have had good runs so far this year. TheFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) andConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) are each up 20% and 11% year-to-date, respectively, far outpacing the 3% rise inConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP). That’s as theRussell 2000is up 13% versus theS&P 500’s10% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年迄今为止，此类股票表现良好。金融精选行业SPDR基金（股票代码：XLF）和非必需消费品精选行业SPDR基金（XLY）今年迄今分别上涨20%和11%，远远超过必需消费品精选行业SPDR基金（XLP）3%的涨幅）。这是因为罗素2000指数今年上涨了13%，而标准普尔500指数今年上涨了10%。</blockquote></p><p>In light of expectations for continued economic momentum and given where the downside risks of rising input prices and taxes would most heavily fall, those segments of the stock market seem to remain good bets.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于对经济持续增长势头的预期，并考虑到投入价格和税收上涨的下行风险最大的地方，股市的这些部分似乎仍然是不错的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/reflation-trade-remains-a-good-bet-for-now-try-banks-small-caps-and-cyclicals-51618861036?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116084515","content_text":"Economic growth forecasts are far from peaking. Is the same true for corporate earnings?The Commerce Department last Thursday reported that retail sales rose to a record seasonally adjusted $7.4 trillion in March. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research points out that such sales are up 50% since bottoming last April while the 12-month moving average for the series is also at a record level.Companies across the retail sector are benefiting from the latest round of stimulus checks to households. “Americans have been going on a supermarket sweep thanks to the three rounds of pandemic relief checks,” Yardeni says, estimating that about 250 million Americans have received checks that add up to roughly $800 billion in cash available for sweeping through supermarkets, stores, and shopping malls.On the heels of the strong retail sales report, economists have been taking 2021 gross domestic product forecasts higher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter GDP estimate is now a seasonally adjusted 8.3%, up from 6% before the March retail sales data.As Sean Darby, global equities strategist at Jefferies puts it, 2021-22 economic growth will resemble a 100-meter relay race, with the baton passing from China to the U.S. and then the U.K., Japan and Europe sprinting together. In that respect, he says, the S&P 500 will continue to benefit from the theme of global reflation well into the end of the year.In addition to extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy and rising Covid-19 vaccination numbers alongside falling daily new cases, Darby points to depleted business stockpiles as rationale for an ongoing acceleration in U.S. economic activity. “U.S. 2021 GDP forecasts are far from peaking,” he says, with low inventories and supply-chain issues holding back some fire—meaning the U.S. recovery is understated given latent demand.As such, Darby predicts roughly 30% earnings growth for theS&P 500this year versus last. Some forecasters are even more bullish. AtMorgan Stanley,for example, strategists’ base-case for 2021 S&P 500 earnings is $193 a share versus Darby’s $180.But while broad economic growth may continue to boom for a while, Darby suggests the same may not be so true for corporate earnings. In particular, investors should consider two underappreciated risks.“The V-shape earnings growth is coming to a summit,” he says. “What does concern us is the possibility of peak margins given the ferocity of input costs and the growing likelihood of changes in the corporate tax rate.”On the first point, input costs, the 4.2% year-over-year gain in the March producer-price index was the biggest in 47 years. Survey data reveal a huge mismatch between producers’ inventory levels and incoming orders and backlogs, Morgan Stanley notes, while the latest small-business survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows a record number of firms plan to raise prices.That feedback loop onto corporate profit margins, to the extent companies eat higher input prices instead of immediately passing them onto their customers, may undermine first-quarter earnings (the reporting season that is currently underway) as well as second-quarter earnings, Darby says.Meanwhile, the Biden administration has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28%. That’s down from the 35% before 2017 but above the current 21% rate. In addition, Biden’s plan would lift the minimum tax on foreign profits of U.S. companies to 21% from 10.5%. Those changes and others would add up to $2 trillion in corporate tax increases over 15 years to pay for his infrastructure plan.What’s the upshot for investors? Putting all that together, Darby says investors should stick with the so-called reflation trade, or the bet that a quickly improving economy would benefit riskiest assets most, such as small-cap stocks over large-caps. Rising growth and inflation expectations should lead to a steeper yield curve, to the benefit of banks and consumer finance companies. Last, Darby says he remains bullish on cyclical stocks (those most closely tied to economic health, such as retail and restaurants).Such stocks, of course, have had good runs so far this year. TheFinancial Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLF) andConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) are each up 20% and 11% year-to-date, respectively, far outpacing the 3% rise inConsumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP). That’s as theRussell 2000is up 13% versus theS&P 500’s10% gain this year.In light of expectations for continued economic momentum and given where the downside risks of rising input prices and taxes would most heavily fall, those segments of the stock market seem to remain good bets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371050250,"gmtCreate":1618894695370,"gmtModify":1634290070265,"author":{"id":"3581763231763695","authorId":"3581763231763695","name":"1528b3bd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581763231763695","idStr":"3581763231763695"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why I commented already, but my 10 coins not activated?","listText":"Why I commented already, but my 10 coins not 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activated?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371050250","repostId":"2128689062","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371038945,"gmtCreate":1618890761887,"gmtModify":1634290103190,"author":{"id":"3581763231763695","authorId":"3581763231763695","name":"1528b3bd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581763231763695","idStr":"3581763231763695"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371038945","repostId":"1116084515","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371049190,"gmtCreate":1618895534710,"gmtModify":1634290062863,"author":{"id":"3581763231763695","authorId":"3581763231763695","name":"1528b3bd","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581763231763695","idStr":"3581763231763695"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment 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