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2021-06-23

Kk

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2021-06-23

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2021-06-23

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2021-06-22

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Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>

2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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Gates Split Casts Harsh Glare on $170 Billion Money Manager<blockquote>盖茨的分拆给1700亿美元的基金经理带来了严厉的目光</blockquote>

2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-21

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Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>

2021-06-19

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2021-06-19

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2021-06-19

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2021-06-18

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624362092,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110726798?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110726798","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock futures rise to extend earlier gains.\nTorchlight Energy Price Gains Premarket.\nGameStop Jumps ","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures rise to extend earlier gains.</li>  <li>Torchlight Energy Price Gains Premarket.</li>  <li>GameStop Jumps After Raising More Than $1 Billion in New Shares.</li>  <li>GameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms &amp; more made the biggest moves in the premarket.</li> </ul> (June 22)&nbsp;Stock futures rose Tuesday morning to build on gains from a day earlier, with equities recovering from concerns over the path forward for monetary policy last week.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股票期货上涨，延续了早些时候的涨幅。</li><li>Torchlight Energy价格盘前上涨。</li><li>游戏驿站在新股融资超过10亿美元后股价上涨。</li><li>游戏驿站、MicroVision、Sanderson Farms等在盘前做出了最大的动作。</li></ul>（6月22日）股指期货周二上午上涨，延续前一天的涨幅，股市从上周对货币政策前进方向的担忧中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:47&nbsp;a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 23 points, or 0.07%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.75 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 39.25 points, or 0.28%.</p><p><blockquote>早上7点47分。美国东部时间，道指e-minis上涨23点，涨幅0.07%，标普500 e-minis上涨5.75点，涨幅0.14%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨39.25点，涨幅0.28%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127a76b6bde89676371162b1b268b550\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：游戏驿站、MicroVision、桑德森农场等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer's stock jumped 6.8% in the premarket after it had announced it had completed a previously announced sale of 5 million common shares, raising $1.126 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）游戏驿站（GME）</b>–这家视频游戏零售商宣布已完成之前宣布的500万股普通股出售，筹集11.26亿美元，该公司股价在盘前上涨6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;MicroVision(MVIS)</b> – MicroVision shares slid 10.8% in the premarket after the laser technology company said it would sell up to $140 million of stock \"from time to time\" and use the funds for general corporate purposes.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）微视（MVIS）</b>–MicroVision股价盘前下跌10.8%，此前这家激光技术公司表示将“不时”出售最多1.4亿美元的股票，并将资金用于一般公司用途。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Sanderson Farms(SAFM) </b>– Sanderson Farms is exploring a possible sale, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. The paper said the poultry producer has already drawn interest from suitors such as agricultural investment firm Continental Grain. The stock surged 10% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）桑德森农场（SAFM）</b>-据接受《华尔街日报》采访的知情人士透露，桑德森农场正在探索可能的出售。该报称，这家家禽生产商已经引起了农业投资公司Continental Grain等追求者的兴趣。该股在盘前上涨10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)</b> – Torchlight shares gained another 4.9% in premarket trading after a 58% surge in Monday's trading. The oil and gas producer is among the stocks getting increased social media attention on sites like Reddit and Stocktwits.</p><p><blockquote><b>4)火炬之光能源(TRCH)</b>-Torchlight股价在周一交易中飙升58%后，在盘前交易中又上涨4.9%。这家石油和天然气生产商是Reddit和Stocktwits等网站上社交媒体关注度越来越高的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL) </b>– The European Unionhas opened a formal antitrust probeof Google's digital ad practices. Part of the investigation will cover some of the same areas involved in a case filed by several U.S. states against the Alphabet operation last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）Alphabet（GOOGL）</b>-欧盟对谷歌的数字广告行为展开了正式的反垄断调查。部分调查将涵盖去年美国几个州针对Alphabet行动提起的案件所涉及的一些相同领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Korn Ferry(KFY)</b> – The consulting firm reported quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 98 cents a share. Revenue topped Wall Street forecasts as well, boosted by its services that help businesses with organizational issues.</p><p><blockquote><b>6）光辉国际（KFY）</b>–该咨询公司报告季度收益为每股1.21美元，超出普遍预期的每股98美分。得益于帮助企业解决组织问题的服务，收入也超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Plug Power(PLUG)</b> – The alternative energy provider lost 12 cents per share for its latest quarter, wider than the 8 cents a share loss analysts were expecting. Revenue also came in below estimates. The company said it was hurt by short-term issues – such as hydrogen shortages and the Texas freeze – which are abating in the current quarter. Plug Power shares gained 1.4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）普拉格能源（插头）</b>–这家替代能源提供商最近一个季度每股亏损12美分，高于分析师预期的每股8美分。收入也低于预期。该公司表示，它受到了短期问题的损害，例如氢气短缺和德克萨斯州冰冻，这些问题在本季度正在缓解。普拉格能源股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Boeing(BA)</b> – Boeing announced the departure of lobbyist and political strategist Tim Keating. No reason was given for Keating’s departure, though the company said a search is underway for a permanent replacement. Keating was a key figure helping Boeing navigate the crisis that followed two fatal crashes of the company’s 737 Max jet.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）波音（BA）</b>——波音宣布说客、政治战略家蒂姆·基廷离职。基廷没有给出离职的原因，但该公司表示正在寻找永久替代者。基廷是帮助波音公司度过该公司737 Max喷气式飞机发生两起致命坠机事件后危机的关键人物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Delta Air Lines(DAL) </b>– Delta plans to hire 1,000 more pilots by next summer, according to an internal company memo. The move comes amid a rebound in travel, with Delta saying the leisure travel is already back to pre-pandemic levels and business travel is picking up as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>9)达美航空(DAL)</b>-根据公司内部备忘录，达美航空计划在明年夏天之前再雇佣1,000名飞行员。此举正值旅游业反弹之际，达美航空表示，休闲旅行已经恢复到大流行前的水平，商务旅行也在回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown remains on watch today following a 5.5% Monday drop. The electric vehicle maker’s executive chairman Angela Strand said the company is “evaluating strategic partners” as part of its search for new funding.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-继周一下跌5.5%后，洛兹敦今天仍受到关注。这家电动汽车制造商的执行主席安吉拉·斯特兰德表示，该公司正在“评估战略合作伙伴”，作为寻找新资金的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(XOM) </b>– Exxon Mobil is denying a Bloomberg report that it plans to cut 5% to 10% of its office workforce annually over the next three to five years. Exxon told CNBC it is merely going through its annual employee assessments, which are unrelated to workforce reductions.</p><p><blockquote><b>11)埃克森美孚(XOM)</b>-埃克森美孚否认了彭博社的一份报告，该报告称该公司计划在未来三到五年内每年裁员5%到10%。埃克森美孚告诉CNBC，它只是在进行年度员工评估，这与裁员无关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;CrowdStrike(CRWD) </b>– CrowdStrike was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Stifel Financial, which points to the cybersecurity company’s potential to increase profit margins and its ability to acquire new customers. CrowdStrike gained 2.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>12)CrowdStrike(CRWD)</b>–Stifel Financial将CrowdStrike的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，这表明这家网络安全公司具有提高利润率的潜力及其获取新客户的能力。CrowdStrike盘前上涨2.8%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 19:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures rise to extend earlier gains.</li>  <li>Torchlight Energy Price Gains Premarket.</li>  <li>GameStop Jumps After Raising More Than $1 Billion in New Shares.</li>  <li>GameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms &amp; more made the biggest moves in the premarket.</li> </ul> (June 22)&nbsp;Stock futures rose Tuesday morning to build on gains from a day earlier, with equities recovering from concerns over the path forward for monetary policy last week.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股票期货上涨，延续了早些时候的涨幅。</li><li>Torchlight Energy价格盘前上涨。</li><li>游戏驿站在新股融资超过10亿美元后股价上涨。</li><li>游戏驿站、MicroVision、Sanderson Farms等在盘前做出了最大的动作。</li></ul>（6月22日）股指期货周二上午上涨，延续前一天的涨幅，股市从上周对货币政策前进方向的担忧中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:47&nbsp;a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 23 points, or 0.07%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.75 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 39.25 points, or 0.28%.</p><p><blockquote>早上7点47分。美国东部时间，道指e-minis上涨23点，涨幅0.07%，标普500 e-minis上涨5.75点，涨幅0.14%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨39.25点，涨幅0.28%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127a76b6bde89676371162b1b268b550\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：游戏驿站、MicroVision、桑德森农场等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer's stock jumped 6.8% in the premarket after it had announced it had completed a previously announced sale of 5 million common shares, raising $1.126 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）游戏驿站（GME）</b>–这家视频游戏零售商宣布已完成之前宣布的500万股普通股出售，筹集11.26亿美元，该公司股价在盘前上涨6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;MicroVision(MVIS)</b> – MicroVision shares slid 10.8% in the premarket after the laser technology company said it would sell up to $140 million of stock \"from time to time\" and use the funds for general corporate purposes.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）微视（MVIS）</b>–MicroVision股价盘前下跌10.8%，此前这家激光技术公司表示将“不时”出售最多1.4亿美元的股票，并将资金用于一般公司用途。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Sanderson Farms(SAFM) </b>– Sanderson Farms is exploring a possible sale, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. The paper said the poultry producer has already drawn interest from suitors such as agricultural investment firm Continental Grain. The stock surged 10% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）桑德森农场（SAFM）</b>-据接受《华尔街日报》采访的知情人士透露，桑德森农场正在探索可能的出售。该报称，这家家禽生产商已经引起了农业投资公司Continental Grain等追求者的兴趣。该股在盘前上涨10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)</b> – Torchlight shares gained another 4.9% in premarket trading after a 58% surge in Monday's trading. The oil and gas producer is among the stocks getting increased social media attention on sites like Reddit and Stocktwits.</p><p><blockquote><b>4)火炬之光能源(TRCH)</b>-Torchlight股价在周一交易中飙升58%后，在盘前交易中又上涨4.9%。这家石油和天然气生产商是Reddit和Stocktwits等网站上社交媒体关注度越来越高的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL) </b>– The European Unionhas opened a formal antitrust probeof Google's digital ad practices. Part of the investigation will cover some of the same areas involved in a case filed by several U.S. states against the Alphabet operation last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）Alphabet（GOOGL）</b>-欧盟对谷歌的数字广告行为展开了正式的反垄断调查。部分调查将涵盖去年美国几个州针对Alphabet行动提起的案件所涉及的一些相同领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Korn Ferry(KFY)</b> – The consulting firm reported quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 98 cents a share. Revenue topped Wall Street forecasts as well, boosted by its services that help businesses with organizational issues.</p><p><blockquote><b>6）光辉国际（KFY）</b>–该咨询公司报告季度收益为每股1.21美元，超出普遍预期的每股98美分。得益于帮助企业解决组织问题的服务，收入也超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Plug Power(PLUG)</b> – The alternative energy provider lost 12 cents per share for its latest quarter, wider than the 8 cents a share loss analysts were expecting. Revenue also came in below estimates. The company said it was hurt by short-term issues – such as hydrogen shortages and the Texas freeze – which are abating in the current quarter. Plug Power shares gained 1.4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）普拉格能源（插头）</b>–这家替代能源提供商最近一个季度每股亏损12美分，高于分析师预期的每股8美分。收入也低于预期。该公司表示，它受到了短期问题的损害，例如氢气短缺和德克萨斯州冰冻，这些问题在本季度正在缓解。普拉格能源股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Boeing(BA)</b> – Boeing announced the departure of lobbyist and political strategist Tim Keating. No reason was given for Keating’s departure, though the company said a search is underway for a permanent replacement. Keating was a key figure helping Boeing navigate the crisis that followed two fatal crashes of the company’s 737 Max jet.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）波音（BA）</b>——波音宣布说客、政治战略家蒂姆·基廷离职。基廷没有给出离职的原因，但该公司表示正在寻找永久替代者。基廷是帮助波音公司度过该公司737 Max喷气式飞机发生两起致命坠机事件后危机的关键人物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Delta Air Lines(DAL) </b>– Delta plans to hire 1,000 more pilots by next summer, according to an internal company memo. The move comes amid a rebound in travel, with Delta saying the leisure travel is already back to pre-pandemic levels and business travel is picking up as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>9)达美航空(DAL)</b>-根据公司内部备忘录，达美航空计划在明年夏天之前再雇佣1,000名飞行员。此举正值旅游业反弹之际，达美航空表示，休闲旅行已经恢复到大流行前的水平，商务旅行也在回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown remains on watch today following a 5.5% Monday drop. The electric vehicle maker’s executive chairman Angela Strand said the company is “evaluating strategic partners” as part of its search for new funding.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-继周一下跌5.5%后，洛兹敦今天仍受到关注。这家电动汽车制造商的执行主席安吉拉·斯特兰德表示，该公司正在“评估战略合作伙伴”，作为寻找新资金的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(XOM) </b>– Exxon Mobil is denying a Bloomberg report that it plans to cut 5% to 10% of its office workforce annually over the next three to five years. Exxon told CNBC it is merely going through its annual employee assessments, which are unrelated to workforce reductions.</p><p><blockquote><b>11)埃克森美孚(XOM)</b>-埃克森美孚否认了彭博社的一份报告，该报告称该公司计划在未来三到五年内每年裁员5%到10%。埃克森美孚告诉CNBC，它只是在进行年度员工评估，这与裁员无关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;CrowdStrike(CRWD) </b>– CrowdStrike was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Stifel Financial, which points to the cybersecurity company’s potential to increase profit margins and its ability to acquire new customers. CrowdStrike gained 2.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>12)CrowdStrike(CRWD)</b>–Stifel Financial将CrowdStrike的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，这表明这家网络安全公司具有提高利润率的潜力及其获取新客户的能力。CrowdStrike盘前上涨2.8%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110726798","content_text":"Stock futures rise to extend earlier gains.\nTorchlight Energy Price Gains Premarket.\nGameStop Jumps After Raising More Than $1 Billion in New Shares.\nGameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms & more made the biggest moves in the premarket.\n\n(June 22) Stock futures rose Tuesday morning to build on gains from a day earlier, with equities recovering from concerns over the path forward for monetary policy last week.\nAt 7:47 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 23 points, or 0.07%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.75 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 39.25 points, or 0.28%.\n\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms & more\n1) GameStop(GME) – The videogame retailer's stock jumped 6.8% in the premarket after it had announced it had completed a previously announced sale of 5 million common shares, raising $1.126 billion.\n2) MicroVision(MVIS) – MicroVision shares slid 10.8% in the premarket after the laser technology company said it would sell up to $140 million of stock \"from time to time\" and use the funds for general corporate purposes.\n3) Sanderson Farms(SAFM) – Sanderson Farms is exploring a possible sale, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. The paper said the poultry producer has already drawn interest from suitors such as agricultural investment firm Continental Grain. The stock surged 10% in premarket action.\n4) Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH) – Torchlight shares gained another 4.9% in premarket trading after a 58% surge in Monday's trading. The oil and gas producer is among the stocks getting increased social media attention on sites like Reddit and Stocktwits.\n5) Alphabet(GOOGL) – The European Unionhas opened a formal antitrust probeof Google's digital ad practices. Part of the investigation will cover some of the same areas involved in a case filed by several U.S. states against the Alphabet operation last year.\n6) Korn Ferry(KFY) – The consulting firm reported quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 98 cents a share. Revenue topped Wall Street forecasts as well, boosted by its services that help businesses with organizational issues.\n7) Plug Power(PLUG) – The alternative energy provider lost 12 cents per share for its latest quarter, wider than the 8 cents a share loss analysts were expecting. Revenue also came in below estimates. The company said it was hurt by short-term issues – such as hydrogen shortages and the Texas freeze – which are abating in the current quarter. Plug Power shares gained 1.4% in premarket trading.\n8) Boeing(BA) – Boeing announced the departure of lobbyist and political strategist Tim Keating. No reason was given for Keating’s departure, though the company said a search is underway for a permanent replacement. Keating was a key figure helping Boeing navigate the crisis that followed two fatal crashes of the company’s 737 Max jet.\n9) Delta Air Lines(DAL) – Delta plans to hire 1,000 more pilots by next summer, according to an internal company memo. The move comes amid a rebound in travel, with Delta saying the leisure travel is already back to pre-pandemic levels and business travel is picking up as well.\n10) Lordstown Motors(RIDE) – Lordstown remains on watch today following a 5.5% Monday drop. The electric vehicle maker’s executive chairman Angela Strand said the company is “evaluating strategic partners” as part of its search for new funding.\n11) Exxon Mobil(XOM) – Exxon Mobil is denying a Bloomberg report that it plans to cut 5% to 10% of its office workforce annually over the next three to five years. Exxon told CNBC it is merely going through its annual employee assessments, which are unrelated to workforce reductions.\n12) CrowdStrike(CRWD) – CrowdStrike was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Stifel Financial, which points to the cybersecurity company’s potential to increase profit margins and its ability to acquire new customers. CrowdStrike gained 2.8% in the premarket.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129115376,"gmtCreate":1624364862995,"gmtModify":1634007259471,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129115376","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120593920,"gmtCreate":1624326779960,"gmtModify":1634007748169,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120593920","repostId":"2145036614","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120599281,"gmtCreate":1624326766343,"gmtModify":1634007748663,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5","listText":"5","text":"5","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120599281","repostId":"1174609211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174609211","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624325385,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174609211?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gates Split Casts Harsh Glare on $170 Billion Money Manager<blockquote>盖茨的分拆给1700亿美元的基金经理带来了严厉的目光</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174609211","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- For almost three decades, Michael Larson has quietly shuffled around one of the world","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- For almost three decades, Michael Larson has quietly shuffled around one of the world’s biggest fortunes with a chief priority: Keep his fabulously wealthy bosses out of the headlines.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——近三十年来，迈克尔·拉森一直在悄悄地洗牌世界上最大的财富之一，他的首要任务是：让他极其富有的老板远离头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> The conservative bets, the nondescript office, the investment firm’s generic-sounding name; they were all carefully designed to shield Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates from criticism and produce steady, if seemingly unimpressive, returns.</p><p><blockquote>保守的赌注、不起眼的办公室、投资公司听起来很普通的名字；它们都是精心设计的，以保护比尔·盖茨和梅林达·弗伦奇·盖茨免受批评，并产生稳定的回报，尽管看起来不起眼。</blockquote></p><p> The couple’s divorce announcement last month cracked the curated image. Unflattering details spilled out, including a report that Larson had allegedly harassed and bullied some employees.</p><p><blockquote>这对夫妇上个月的离婚声明打破了策划的形象。令人不快的细节被泄露，包括一份关于拉森涉嫌骚扰和欺负一些员工的报告。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, a spokesman said that Bill and Melinda Gates Investments -- the 100-person strong team led by Larson that’s overseen their personal fortune and the endowment of their namesake foundation -- changed its name to Cascade Asset Management Co. The moniker closely resembles Cascade Investment, which historically has been the part of BMGI that manages the Gateses’ personal wealth.</p><p><blockquote>周一，一位发言人表示，比尔和梅琳达·盖茨投资公司（Bill and Melinda Gates Investments）更名为Cascade Asset Management Co。这个绰号与Cascade Investment非常相似，Cascade Investment历来是BMGI管理盖茨夫妇个人财富的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> The rebranding is the latest step in the unfolding story of what will happen to one of the world’s largest fortunes when Gates and French Gates finalize their divorce. Larson was hired by the Microsoft Corp. billionaire in the mid-1990s to oversee that wealth.</p><p><blockquote>此次品牌重塑是正在展开的故事的最新一步，当盖茨和法国人盖茨最终离婚时，世界上最大的财富之一将会发生什么。20世纪90年代中期，这位微软亿万富翁聘请拉森来监管这笔财富。</blockquote></p><p> The sprawling portfolio under his purview, estimated by Bloomberg News to be valued at about $170 billion, has over the years generated returns that beat the broader stock market by about a percentage point, according to financial filings and people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据财务文件和知情人士透露，据彭博新闻社估计，他管理的庞大投资组合价值约1700亿美元，多年来产生的回报比大盘高出约一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The record illustrates the priorities of the uppermost strata of the ultrarich, where investment horizons span generations and riskier bets often don’t outweigh the value of a good reputation. Part of Larson’s job was to help Bill Gates uphold his image as a wonky billionaire devoted to fixing the world’s challenges, rather than make bold moves that could draw scrutiny.</p><p><blockquote>这一记录说明了超级富豪最上层的优先事项，他们的投资期限跨越几代人，风险较高的赌注往往不会超过良好声誉的价值。拉森的部分工作是帮助比尔·盖茨维护他作为致力于解决世界挑战的不可靠亿万富翁的形象，而不是做出可能引起审查的大胆举动。</blockquote></p><p> “The price some of these guys are willing to pay to stay out of the news is high,” said Tayyab Mohamed, co-founder of family office recruiting firm Agreus Group.</p><p><blockquote>家族办公室招聘公司Agreus Group的联合创始人塔亚布·穆罕默德(Tayyab Mohamed)表示：“其中一些人愿意为远离新闻而付出的代价很高。”</blockquote></p><p> The divorce and recent revelations about Cascade’s workplace culture, reported by the New York Times, raise questions about what’s next for Larson and the fortune he oversees. A spokesman for Cascade said BMGI is changing its name “to allow for the evolving needs of the Gates family and their philanthropic work” and that the group’s investment strategy and organizational structure won’t change.</p><p><blockquote>《纽约时报》报道了这起离婚事件以及最近有关卡斯卡德工作场所文化的爆料，引发了人们对拉森和他监管的财富的下一步发展的质疑。Cascade的一位发言人表示，BMGI正在更名，“以满足盖茨家族及其慈善工作不断变化的需求”，并且该集团的投资战略和组织结构不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> French Gates, whose name was added to BMGI in 2014, has been in focus after Cascade transferred equity stakes worth more than $3 billion to her, leading some in the industry to speculate she’s in the process of claiming an even larger control of her share of the riches. Their combined wealth stands at more than $140 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.</p><p><blockquote>弗伦奇·盖茨(French Gates)的名字于2014年加入BMGI，在Cascade将价值超过30亿美元的股权转让给她后，她一直成为人们关注的焦点，导致一些业内人士猜测她正在要求对自己的股份拥有更大的控制权。财富。根据彭博亿万富翁指数，他们的总财富超过1400亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Larson, 61, has admitted that he sometimes used harsh language, as alleged in the Times reporting, but denied that he mistreated staff. A Cascade representative has said the matters were examined and didn’t warrant his dismissal. A representative for Gates didn’t respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>61岁的拉森承认，正如《泰晤士报》报道中所指控的那样，他有时会使用严厉的语言，但否认他虐待员工。Cascade的一名代表表示，这些事情已经过审查，没有理由解雇他。盖茨的代表没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Mohamed said it’s of little surprise that Larson has remained in his role after the allegations, given his decades-long tenure with Gates and the loyalty it has likely engendered.</p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德表示，考虑到拉森在盖茨长达数十年的任期以及由此可能产生的忠诚，拉森在指控后继续留任并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> “Had Larson not had the professional impact he had, it would be a simple yes, he should resign,” said Mohamed, whose company helps family offices fill leadership positions.</p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德说：“如果拉森没有像他那样的职业影响力，那就是简单的“是的，他应该辞职”，他的公司帮助家族理财室填补领导职位。</blockquote></p><p> Larson, often clad in a pink shirt, shies from the limelight and rarely attends conferences for family office professionals. A former bond-fund manager, he won Gates’s loyalty by delivering consistent returns and instilling in employees the notion that their primary focus was to protect their benefactor’s good name, according to people familiar with Cascade, who asked not to be named speaking about the company’s inner workings.</p><p><blockquote>拉森经常穿着粉色衬衫，回避聚光灯，很少参加家族理财室专业人士的会议。据熟悉Cascade的人士透露，作为一名前债券基金经理，他通过提供稳定的回报并向员工灌输他们的主要关注点是保护捐助者的好名声的观念，赢得了盖茨的忠诚。在谈到公司的内部运作时，这些人士要求匿名。</blockquote></p><p> The manager had broad leeway from Gates on investment decisions, they both have said. French Gates rarely attended meetings in Cascade’s early days aside from the annual in-person gathering, and when she did she tended to be a passive participant, according to one of the people familiar with the firm.</p><p><blockquote>他们都表示，这位经理在投资决策上与盖茨有很大的回旋余地。据一位熟悉该公司的人士透露，在Cascade早期，除了年度面对面聚会外，弗伦奇·盖茨很少参加会议，即使参加，她也往往是被动的参与者。</blockquote></p><p> She was unaware of most of the allegations involving Larson “given her lack of ownership of and control over BMGI,” her spokeswoman, Courtney Wade, said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>她的发言人考特尼·韦德(Courtney Wade)在一份声明中表示，“鉴于拉森缺乏对BMGI的所有权和控制权”，她并不知道涉及拉森的大部分指控。</blockquote></p><p> It’s unclear where French Gates is keeping her money, including the more than $3 billion that has been transferred from Cascade, and whether she’s now setting up a family office of her own. She also runs Pivotal Ventures, an investment and incubation firm founded in 2015 that focuses on gender and racial equality and employs roughly 90 people.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚French Gates将她的钱放在哪里，包括从Cascade转移的超过30亿美元，也不清楚她现在是否正在建立自己的家族办公室。她还经营着Pivotal Ventures，这是一家投资和孵化公司，成立于2015年，专注于性别和种族平等，拥有约90名员工。</blockquote></p><p> Conservative Mandate</p><p><blockquote>保守授权</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Being the investment chief for one of the world’s biggest family fortunes might seem like an enviable job for an investor mulling creative bets. There’s hardly a worry about fundraising, client withdrawals or onerous regulations. But it often instead involves simply keeping wealth steady.</p><p><blockquote>对于考虑创造性赌注的投资者来说，成为世界上最大家族财富之一的投资主管似乎是一份令人羡慕的工作。几乎不用担心筹款、客户提款或繁琐的监管。但它往往只是简单地保持财富稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from detracting attention from the Gateses, Larson’s main mandate has been to invest conservatively -- try to maximize returns but don’t lose money, one of the people said.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位知情人士表示，除了转移人们对盖茨夫妇的注意力外，拉森的主要任务是保守投资——努力实现回报最大化，但不要亏损。</blockquote></p><p> That reflects the typical investment approaches of big family offices and foundations, said Raphael Amit, professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院管理学教授拉斐尔·阿米特表示，这反映了大型家族办公室和基金会的典型投资方式。</blockquote></p><p> “The No. 1 objective is preservation of capital,” he said, adding that’s why family office portfolios are so diverse, including not just public equities, but also fixed income, commodities and assets such as art.</p><p><blockquote>“首要目标是保本，”他说，并补充说这就是家族办公室投资组合如此多样化的原因，不仅包括公共股票，还包括固定收益、大宗商品和艺术品等资产。</blockquote></p><p> In a Fortune story from two decades ago, Larson explained that much of his strategy boiled down to countering the swings of Microsoft stock. At the time, the portfolios both for the foundation and for the Gateses’ personal money mostly consisted of bonds, with some bets on private equity, commodities, Florida real estate and British hotels.</p><p><blockquote>在二十年前的《财富》杂志的一篇报道中，拉尔森解释说，他的大部分策略都归结为对抗微软股票的波动。当时，基金会和盖茨夫妇个人资金的投资组合主要由债券组成，部分押注于私募股权、大宗商品、佛罗里达州房地产和英国酒店。</blockquote></p><p> That has shifted. Today Cascade holds about $57 billion in public equities, ranging from farm-equipment maker Deere &amp; Co. to track operator Canadian National Railway Co. to waste management firm Republic Services Inc. -- companies rooted in the physical world of making, moving and selling goods, and cleaning things up.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况已经改变了。如今，Cascade持有约570亿美元的公共股票，从农业设备制造商Deere公司到轨道运营商加拿大国家铁路公司，再到废物管理公司Republic Services Inc.——这些公司植根于制造、运输和销售商品和清理物品的物理世界。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade also owns around 270,000 acres of land, enough to make it the single biggest owner of U.S. farmland, according to the Land Report. The firm also has been involved in currency and commodities trading, venture capital and the development of a property complex in downtown Tampa.</p><p><blockquote>根据土地报告，Cascade还拥有约270,000英亩的土地，足以使其成为美国最大的农田所有者。该公司还参与了货币和大宗商品交易、风险投资以及坦帕市中心房地产综合体的开发。</blockquote></p><p> The foundation’s most recent tax returns also shows $804 million of corporate bonds and $5.8 billion of other investments like mortgage-backed securities, bank loans and sovereign debt.</p><p><blockquote>该基金会最近的纳税申报表还显示，8.04亿美元的公司债券和58亿美元的其他投资，如抵押贷款支持证券、银行贷款和主权债务。</blockquote></p><p> Stable Returns</p><p><blockquote>稳定的回报</blockquote></p><p> Cascade doesn’t disclose its overall investment performance, but financial reports from the foundation offer clues. The foundation’s assets under management have returned an average of about 8.6% per year since 2001, according to a person familiar with the matter, beating the S&amp;P 500 Index’s average annual 7.5% gain over the past two decades. That track record is broadly representative of Cascade’s overall returns, another person said.</p><p><blockquote>Cascade没有透露其整体投资业绩，但基金会的财务报告提供了线索。据一位知情人士透露，自2001年以来，该基金会管理的资产平均每年回报率约为8.6%，超过了标普500指数过去二十年7.5%的年均涨幅。另一位人士表示，这一业绩记录广泛代表了Cascade的整体回报。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade’s assets have periodically been boosted by proceeds from the sales of Gates’s Microsoft stock. And Warren Buffett, the founder of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., has periodically given shares in the conglomerate worth billions of dollars to the foundation. Buffett is one of the Gates Foundation’s three board members alongside Gates and French Gates, but has no involvement in investment decisions of the endowment, according to the foundation.</p><p><blockquote>盖茨出售微软股票的收益定期增加Cascade的资产。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway Inc.）的创始人沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）定期向该基金会捐赠价值数十亿美元的该集团股票。据该基金会称，巴菲特与盖茨和弗伦奇·盖茨一起是盖茨基金会的三名董事会成员之一，但不参与捐赠基金的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> One remarkable feature of the portfolio is how little it changes. Of the 15 stocks listed in the foundation trust’s most recent filing, which discloses positions traded on U.S. exchanges, 10 of them were in the portfolio a decade ago.</p><p><blockquote>投资组合的一个显着特点是变化很小。基金会信托最近提交的文件披露了在美国交易所交易的头寸，其中列出了15只股票，其中10只股票十年前就在投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p> The holdings haven’t uniformly jived with the Gateses’ charitable endeavors or priorities, which include global health and, more recently, climate change.</p><p><blockquote>这些资产与盖茨夫妇的慈善事业或优先事项并不一致，其中包括全球健康和最近的气候变化。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade held investments in oil and gas companies until 2019, Gates said in his recent book about climate change. It was long the biggest owner of Signature Aviation Plc, the world’s largest operator of private-jet bases, before joining a consortium that took the company private this year. And it’s the biggest shareholder of Republic Services Inc., which for years has feuded with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union, whose members are employees.</p><p><blockquote>盖茨在他最近关于气候变化的书中表示，Cascade在2019年之前一直持有对石油和天然气公司的投资。在加入今年将该公司私有化的财团之前，它长期以来一直是全球最大的私人飞机基地运营商Signature Aviation Plc的最大所有者。它是Republic Services Inc.的最大股东，该公司多年来一直与国际卡车司机工会兄弟会不和，后者的成员是雇员。</blockquote></p><p> Gates has occasionally made it clear that Larson has broad discretion to make investment decisions. In a March “Ask me anything” event on Reddit, a user asked about his purchases of farmland. His response: “My investment group chose to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>盖茨偶尔会明确表示，拉森拥有做出投资决策的广泛自由裁量权。在Reddit上3月份的“问我任何问题”活动中，一名用户询问了他购买农田的情况。他的回应是：“我的投资团队选择了这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> Two decades ago, Larson put it more bluntly.</p><p><blockquote>二十年前，拉尔森说得更直白。</blockquote></p><p> “When people find out that Cascade has made an investment in something, that’s not Bill Gates,” he said in the Fortune interview. “I wish everyone understood that.”</p><p><blockquote>“当人们发现Cascade投资了某件事时，那就不是比尔·盖茨了，”他在接受《财富》采访时表示。“我希望每个人都能理解这一点。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gates Split Casts Harsh Glare on $170 Billion Money Manager<blockquote>盖茨的分拆给1700亿美元的基金经理带来了严厉的目光</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGates Split Casts Harsh Glare on $170 Billion Money Manager<blockquote>盖茨的分拆给1700亿美元的基金经理带来了严厉的目光</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- For almost three decades, Michael Larson has quietly shuffled around one of the world’s biggest fortunes with a chief priority: Keep his fabulously wealthy bosses out of the headlines.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——近三十年来，迈克尔·拉森一直在悄悄地洗牌世界上最大的财富之一，他的首要任务是：让他极其富有的老板远离头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> The conservative bets, the nondescript office, the investment firm’s generic-sounding name; they were all carefully designed to shield Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates from criticism and produce steady, if seemingly unimpressive, returns.</p><p><blockquote>保守的赌注、不起眼的办公室、投资公司听起来很普通的名字；它们都是精心设计的，以保护比尔·盖茨和梅林达·弗伦奇·盖茨免受批评，并产生稳定的回报，尽管看起来不起眼。</blockquote></p><p> The couple’s divorce announcement last month cracked the curated image. Unflattering details spilled out, including a report that Larson had allegedly harassed and bullied some employees.</p><p><blockquote>这对夫妇上个月的离婚声明打破了策划的形象。令人不快的细节被泄露，包括一份关于拉森涉嫌骚扰和欺负一些员工的报告。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, a spokesman said that Bill and Melinda Gates Investments -- the 100-person strong team led by Larson that’s overseen their personal fortune and the endowment of their namesake foundation -- changed its name to Cascade Asset Management Co. The moniker closely resembles Cascade Investment, which historically has been the part of BMGI that manages the Gateses’ personal wealth.</p><p><blockquote>周一，一位发言人表示，比尔和梅琳达·盖茨投资公司（Bill and Melinda Gates Investments）更名为Cascade Asset Management Co。这个绰号与Cascade Investment非常相似，Cascade Investment历来是BMGI管理盖茨夫妇个人财富的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> The rebranding is the latest step in the unfolding story of what will happen to one of the world’s largest fortunes when Gates and French Gates finalize their divorce. Larson was hired by the Microsoft Corp. billionaire in the mid-1990s to oversee that wealth.</p><p><blockquote>此次品牌重塑是正在展开的故事的最新一步，当盖茨和法国人盖茨最终离婚时，世界上最大的财富之一将会发生什么。20世纪90年代中期，这位微软亿万富翁聘请拉森来监管这笔财富。</blockquote></p><p> The sprawling portfolio under his purview, estimated by Bloomberg News to be valued at about $170 billion, has over the years generated returns that beat the broader stock market by about a percentage point, according to financial filings and people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据财务文件和知情人士透露，据彭博新闻社估计，他管理的庞大投资组合价值约1700亿美元，多年来产生的回报比大盘高出约一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The record illustrates the priorities of the uppermost strata of the ultrarich, where investment horizons span generations and riskier bets often don’t outweigh the value of a good reputation. Part of Larson’s job was to help Bill Gates uphold his image as a wonky billionaire devoted to fixing the world’s challenges, rather than make bold moves that could draw scrutiny.</p><p><blockquote>这一记录说明了超级富豪最上层的优先事项，他们的投资期限跨越几代人，风险较高的赌注往往不会超过良好声誉的价值。拉森的部分工作是帮助比尔·盖茨维护他作为致力于解决世界挑战的不可靠亿万富翁的形象，而不是做出可能引起审查的大胆举动。</blockquote></p><p> “The price some of these guys are willing to pay to stay out of the news is high,” said Tayyab Mohamed, co-founder of family office recruiting firm Agreus Group.</p><p><blockquote>家族办公室招聘公司Agreus Group的联合创始人塔亚布·穆罕默德(Tayyab Mohamed)表示：“其中一些人愿意为远离新闻而付出的代价很高。”</blockquote></p><p> The divorce and recent revelations about Cascade’s workplace culture, reported by the New York Times, raise questions about what’s next for Larson and the fortune he oversees. A spokesman for Cascade said BMGI is changing its name “to allow for the evolving needs of the Gates family and their philanthropic work” and that the group’s investment strategy and organizational structure won’t change.</p><p><blockquote>《纽约时报》报道了这起离婚事件以及最近有关卡斯卡德工作场所文化的爆料，引发了人们对拉森和他监管的财富的下一步发展的质疑。Cascade的一位发言人表示，BMGI正在更名，“以满足盖茨家族及其慈善工作不断变化的需求”，并且该集团的投资战略和组织结构不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> French Gates, whose name was added to BMGI in 2014, has been in focus after Cascade transferred equity stakes worth more than $3 billion to her, leading some in the industry to speculate she’s in the process of claiming an even larger control of her share of the riches. Their combined wealth stands at more than $140 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.</p><p><blockquote>弗伦奇·盖茨(French Gates)的名字于2014年加入BMGI，在Cascade将价值超过30亿美元的股权转让给她后，她一直成为人们关注的焦点，导致一些业内人士猜测她正在要求对自己的股份拥有更大的控制权。财富。根据彭博亿万富翁指数，他们的总财富超过1400亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Larson, 61, has admitted that he sometimes used harsh language, as alleged in the Times reporting, but denied that he mistreated staff. A Cascade representative has said the matters were examined and didn’t warrant his dismissal. A representative for Gates didn’t respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>61岁的拉森承认，正如《泰晤士报》报道中所指控的那样，他有时会使用严厉的语言，但否认他虐待员工。Cascade的一名代表表示，这些事情已经过审查，没有理由解雇他。盖茨的代表没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Mohamed said it’s of little surprise that Larson has remained in his role after the allegations, given his decades-long tenure with Gates and the loyalty it has likely engendered.</p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德表示，考虑到拉森在盖茨长达数十年的任期以及由此可能产生的忠诚，拉森在指控后继续留任并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> “Had Larson not had the professional impact he had, it would be a simple yes, he should resign,” said Mohamed, whose company helps family offices fill leadership positions.</p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德说：“如果拉森没有像他那样的职业影响力，那就是简单的“是的，他应该辞职”，他的公司帮助家族理财室填补领导职位。</blockquote></p><p> Larson, often clad in a pink shirt, shies from the limelight and rarely attends conferences for family office professionals. A former bond-fund manager, he won Gates’s loyalty by delivering consistent returns and instilling in employees the notion that their primary focus was to protect their benefactor’s good name, according to people familiar with Cascade, who asked not to be named speaking about the company’s inner workings.</p><p><blockquote>拉森经常穿着粉色衬衫，回避聚光灯，很少参加家族理财室专业人士的会议。据熟悉Cascade的人士透露，作为一名前债券基金经理，他通过提供稳定的回报并向员工灌输他们的主要关注点是保护捐助者的好名声的观念，赢得了盖茨的忠诚。在谈到公司的内部运作时，这些人士要求匿名。</blockquote></p><p> The manager had broad leeway from Gates on investment decisions, they both have said. French Gates rarely attended meetings in Cascade’s early days aside from the annual in-person gathering, and when she did she tended to be a passive participant, according to one of the people familiar with the firm.</p><p><blockquote>他们都表示，这位经理在投资决策上与盖茨有很大的回旋余地。据一位熟悉该公司的人士透露，在Cascade早期，除了年度面对面聚会外，弗伦奇·盖茨很少参加会议，即使参加，她也往往是被动的参与者。</blockquote></p><p> She was unaware of most of the allegations involving Larson “given her lack of ownership of and control over BMGI,” her spokeswoman, Courtney Wade, said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>她的发言人考特尼·韦德(Courtney Wade)在一份声明中表示，“鉴于拉森缺乏对BMGI的所有权和控制权”，她并不知道涉及拉森的大部分指控。</blockquote></p><p> It’s unclear where French Gates is keeping her money, including the more than $3 billion that has been transferred from Cascade, and whether she’s now setting up a family office of her own. She also runs Pivotal Ventures, an investment and incubation firm founded in 2015 that focuses on gender and racial equality and employs roughly 90 people.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚French Gates将她的钱放在哪里，包括从Cascade转移的超过30亿美元，也不清楚她现在是否正在建立自己的家族办公室。她还经营着Pivotal Ventures，这是一家投资和孵化公司，成立于2015年，专注于性别和种族平等，拥有约90名员工。</blockquote></p><p> Conservative Mandate</p><p><blockquote>保守授权</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Being the investment chief for one of the world’s biggest family fortunes might seem like an enviable job for an investor mulling creative bets. There’s hardly a worry about fundraising, client withdrawals or onerous regulations. But it often instead involves simply keeping wealth steady.</p><p><blockquote>对于考虑创造性赌注的投资者来说，成为世界上最大家族财富之一的投资主管似乎是一份令人羡慕的工作。几乎不用担心筹款、客户提款或繁琐的监管。但它往往只是简单地保持财富稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from detracting attention from the Gateses, Larson’s main mandate has been to invest conservatively -- try to maximize returns but don’t lose money, one of the people said.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位知情人士表示，除了转移人们对盖茨夫妇的注意力外，拉森的主要任务是保守投资——努力实现回报最大化，但不要亏损。</blockquote></p><p> That reflects the typical investment approaches of big family offices and foundations, said Raphael Amit, professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院管理学教授拉斐尔·阿米特表示，这反映了大型家族办公室和基金会的典型投资方式。</blockquote></p><p> “The No. 1 objective is preservation of capital,” he said, adding that’s why family office portfolios are so diverse, including not just public equities, but also fixed income, commodities and assets such as art.</p><p><blockquote>“首要目标是保本，”他说，并补充说这就是家族办公室投资组合如此多样化的原因，不仅包括公共股票，还包括固定收益、大宗商品和艺术品等资产。</blockquote></p><p> In a Fortune story from two decades ago, Larson explained that much of his strategy boiled down to countering the swings of Microsoft stock. At the time, the portfolios both for the foundation and for the Gateses’ personal money mostly consisted of bonds, with some bets on private equity, commodities, Florida real estate and British hotels.</p><p><blockquote>在二十年前的《财富》杂志的一篇报道中，拉尔森解释说，他的大部分策略都归结为对抗微软股票的波动。当时，基金会和盖茨夫妇个人资金的投资组合主要由债券组成，部分押注于私募股权、大宗商品、佛罗里达州房地产和英国酒店。</blockquote></p><p> That has shifted. Today Cascade holds about $57 billion in public equities, ranging from farm-equipment maker Deere &amp; Co. to track operator Canadian National Railway Co. to waste management firm Republic Services Inc. -- companies rooted in the physical world of making, moving and selling goods, and cleaning things up.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况已经改变了。如今，Cascade持有约570亿美元的公共股票，从农业设备制造商Deere公司到轨道运营商加拿大国家铁路公司，再到废物管理公司Republic Services Inc.——这些公司植根于制造、运输和销售商品和清理物品的物理世界。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade also owns around 270,000 acres of land, enough to make it the single biggest owner of U.S. farmland, according to the Land Report. The firm also has been involved in currency and commodities trading, venture capital and the development of a property complex in downtown Tampa.</p><p><blockquote>根据土地报告，Cascade还拥有约270,000英亩的土地，足以使其成为美国最大的农田所有者。该公司还参与了货币和大宗商品交易、风险投资以及坦帕市中心房地产综合体的开发。</blockquote></p><p> The foundation’s most recent tax returns also shows $804 million of corporate bonds and $5.8 billion of other investments like mortgage-backed securities, bank loans and sovereign debt.</p><p><blockquote>该基金会最近的纳税申报表还显示，8.04亿美元的公司债券和58亿美元的其他投资，如抵押贷款支持证券、银行贷款和主权债务。</blockquote></p><p> Stable Returns</p><p><blockquote>稳定的回报</blockquote></p><p> Cascade doesn’t disclose its overall investment performance, but financial reports from the foundation offer clues. The foundation’s assets under management have returned an average of about 8.6% per year since 2001, according to a person familiar with the matter, beating the S&amp;P 500 Index’s average annual 7.5% gain over the past two decades. That track record is broadly representative of Cascade’s overall returns, another person said.</p><p><blockquote>Cascade没有透露其整体投资业绩，但基金会的财务报告提供了线索。据一位知情人士透露，自2001年以来，该基金会管理的资产平均每年回报率约为8.6%，超过了标普500指数过去二十年7.5%的年均涨幅。另一位人士表示，这一业绩记录广泛代表了Cascade的整体回报。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade’s assets have periodically been boosted by proceeds from the sales of Gates’s Microsoft stock. And Warren Buffett, the founder of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., has periodically given shares in the conglomerate worth billions of dollars to the foundation. Buffett is one of the Gates Foundation’s three board members alongside Gates and French Gates, but has no involvement in investment decisions of the endowment, according to the foundation.</p><p><blockquote>盖茨出售微软股票的收益定期增加Cascade的资产。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway Inc.）的创始人沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）定期向该基金会捐赠价值数十亿美元的该集团股票。据该基金会称，巴菲特与盖茨和弗伦奇·盖茨一起是盖茨基金会的三名董事会成员之一，但不参与捐赠基金的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> One remarkable feature of the portfolio is how little it changes. Of the 15 stocks listed in the foundation trust’s most recent filing, which discloses positions traded on U.S. exchanges, 10 of them were in the portfolio a decade ago.</p><p><blockquote>投资组合的一个显着特点是变化很小。基金会信托最近提交的文件披露了在美国交易所交易的头寸，其中列出了15只股票，其中10只股票十年前就在投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p> The holdings haven’t uniformly jived with the Gateses’ charitable endeavors or priorities, which include global health and, more recently, climate change.</p><p><blockquote>这些资产与盖茨夫妇的慈善事业或优先事项并不一致，其中包括全球健康和最近的气候变化。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade held investments in oil and gas companies until 2019, Gates said in his recent book about climate change. It was long the biggest owner of Signature Aviation Plc, the world’s largest operator of private-jet bases, before joining a consortium that took the company private this year. And it’s the biggest shareholder of Republic Services Inc., which for years has feuded with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union, whose members are employees.</p><p><blockquote>盖茨在他最近关于气候变化的书中表示，Cascade在2019年之前一直持有对石油和天然气公司的投资。在加入今年将该公司私有化的财团之前，它长期以来一直是全球最大的私人飞机基地运营商Signature Aviation Plc的最大所有者。它是Republic Services Inc.的最大股东，该公司多年来一直与国际卡车司机工会兄弟会不和，后者的成员是雇员。</blockquote></p><p> Gates has occasionally made it clear that Larson has broad discretion to make investment decisions. In a March “Ask me anything” event on Reddit, a user asked about his purchases of farmland. His response: “My investment group chose to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>盖茨偶尔会明确表示，拉森拥有做出投资决策的广泛自由裁量权。在Reddit上3月份的“问我任何问题”活动中，一名用户询问了他购买农田的情况。他的回应是：“我的投资团队选择了这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> Two decades ago, Larson put it more bluntly.</p><p><blockquote>二十年前，拉尔森说得更直白。</blockquote></p><p> “When people find out that Cascade has made an investment in something, that’s not Bill Gates,” he said in the Fortune interview. “I wish everyone understood that.”</p><p><blockquote>“当人们发现Cascade投资了某件事时，那就不是比尔·盖茨了，”他在接受《财富》采访时表示。“我希望每个人都能理解这一点。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gates-divorce-casts-harsh-glare-090002545.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gates-divorce-casts-harsh-glare-090002545.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174609211","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- For almost three decades, Michael Larson has quietly shuffled around one of the world’s biggest fortunes with a chief priority: Keep his fabulously wealthy bosses out of the headlines.\nThe conservative bets, the nondescript office, the investment firm’s generic-sounding name; they were all carefully designed to shield Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates from criticism and produce steady, if seemingly unimpressive, returns.\nThe couple’s divorce announcement last month cracked the curated image. Unflattering details spilled out, including a report that Larson had allegedly harassed and bullied some employees.\nOn Monday, a spokesman said that Bill and Melinda Gates Investments -- the 100-person strong team led by Larson that’s overseen their personal fortune and the endowment of their namesake foundation -- changed its name to Cascade Asset Management Co. The moniker closely resembles Cascade Investment, which historically has been the part of BMGI that manages the Gateses’ personal wealth.\nThe rebranding is the latest step in the unfolding story of what will happen to one of the world’s largest fortunes when Gates and French Gates finalize their divorce. Larson was hired by the Microsoft Corp. billionaire in the mid-1990s to oversee that wealth.\nThe sprawling portfolio under his purview, estimated by Bloomberg News to be valued at about $170 billion, has over the years generated returns that beat the broader stock market by about a percentage point, according to financial filings and people familiar with the matter.\nThe record illustrates the priorities of the uppermost strata of the ultrarich, where investment horizons span generations and riskier bets often don’t outweigh the value of a good reputation. Part of Larson’s job was to help Bill Gates uphold his image as a wonky billionaire devoted to fixing the world’s challenges, rather than make bold moves that could draw scrutiny.\n“The price some of these guys are willing to pay to stay out of the news is high,” said Tayyab Mohamed, co-founder of family office recruiting firm Agreus Group.\nThe divorce and recent revelations about Cascade’s workplace culture, reported by the New York Times, raise questions about what’s next for Larson and the fortune he oversees. A spokesman for Cascade said BMGI is changing its name “to allow for the evolving needs of the Gates family and their philanthropic work” and that the group’s investment strategy and organizational structure won’t change.\nFrench Gates, whose name was added to BMGI in 2014, has been in focus after Cascade transferred equity stakes worth more than $3 billion to her, leading some in the industry to speculate she’s in the process of claiming an even larger control of her share of the riches. Their combined wealth stands at more than $140 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.\nLarson, 61, has admitted that he sometimes used harsh language, as alleged in the Times reporting, but denied that he mistreated staff. A Cascade representative has said the matters were examined and didn’t warrant his dismissal. A representative for Gates didn’t respond to a request for comment.\nMohamed said it’s of little surprise that Larson has remained in his role after the allegations, given his decades-long tenure with Gates and the loyalty it has likely engendered.\n“Had Larson not had the professional impact he had, it would be a simple yes, he should resign,” said Mohamed, whose company helps family offices fill leadership positions.\nLarson, often clad in a pink shirt, shies from the limelight and rarely attends conferences for family office professionals. A former bond-fund manager, he won Gates’s loyalty by delivering consistent returns and instilling in employees the notion that their primary focus was to protect their benefactor’s good name, according to people familiar with Cascade, who asked not to be named speaking about the company’s inner workings.\nThe manager had broad leeway from Gates on investment decisions, they both have said. French Gates rarely attended meetings in Cascade’s early days aside from the annual in-person gathering, and when she did she tended to be a passive participant, according to one of the people familiar with the firm.\nShe was unaware of most of the allegations involving Larson “given her lack of ownership of and control over BMGI,” her spokeswoman, Courtney Wade, said in a statement.\nIt’s unclear where French Gates is keeping her money, including the more than $3 billion that has been transferred from Cascade, and whether she’s now setting up a family office of her own. She also runs Pivotal Ventures, an investment and incubation firm founded in 2015 that focuses on gender and racial equality and employs roughly 90 people.\nConservative Mandate\nBeing the investment chief for one of the world’s biggest family fortunes might seem like an enviable job for an investor mulling creative bets. There’s hardly a worry about fundraising, client withdrawals or onerous regulations. But it often instead involves simply keeping wealth steady.\nAside from detracting attention from the Gateses, Larson’s main mandate has been to invest conservatively -- try to maximize returns but don’t lose money, one of the people said.\nThat reflects the typical investment approaches of big family offices and foundations, said Raphael Amit, professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.\n“The No. 1 objective is preservation of capital,” he said, adding that’s why family office portfolios are so diverse, including not just public equities, but also fixed income, commodities and assets such as art.\nIn a Fortune story from two decades ago, Larson explained that much of his strategy boiled down to countering the swings of Microsoft stock. At the time, the portfolios both for the foundation and for the Gateses’ personal money mostly consisted of bonds, with some bets on private equity, commodities, Florida real estate and British hotels.\nThat has shifted. Today Cascade holds about $57 billion in public equities, ranging from farm-equipment maker Deere & Co. to track operator Canadian National Railway Co. to waste management firm Republic Services Inc. -- companies rooted in the physical world of making, moving and selling goods, and cleaning things up.\nCascade also owns around 270,000 acres of land, enough to make it the single biggest owner of U.S. farmland, according to the Land Report. The firm also has been involved in currency and commodities trading, venture capital and the development of a property complex in downtown Tampa.\nThe foundation’s most recent tax returns also shows $804 million of corporate bonds and $5.8 billion of other investments like mortgage-backed securities, bank loans and sovereign debt.\nStable Returns\nCascade doesn’t disclose its overall investment performance, but financial reports from the foundation offer clues. The foundation’s assets under management have returned an average of about 8.6% per year since 2001, according to a person familiar with the matter, beating the S&P 500 Index’s average annual 7.5% gain over the past two decades. That track record is broadly representative of Cascade’s overall returns, another person said.\nCascade’s assets have periodically been boosted by proceeds from the sales of Gates’s Microsoft stock. And Warren Buffett, the founder of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., has periodically given shares in the conglomerate worth billions of dollars to the foundation. Buffett is one of the Gates Foundation’s three board members alongside Gates and French Gates, but has no involvement in investment decisions of the endowment, according to the foundation.\nOne remarkable feature of the portfolio is how little it changes. Of the 15 stocks listed in the foundation trust’s most recent filing, which discloses positions traded on U.S. exchanges, 10 of them were in the portfolio a decade ago.\nThe holdings haven’t uniformly jived with the Gateses’ charitable endeavors or priorities, which include global health and, more recently, climate change.\nCascade held investments in oil and gas companies until 2019, Gates said in his recent book about climate change. It was long the biggest owner of Signature Aviation Plc, the world’s largest operator of private-jet bases, before joining a consortium that took the company private this year. And it’s the biggest shareholder of Republic Services Inc., which for years has feuded with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union, whose members are employees.\nGates has occasionally made it clear that Larson has broad discretion to make investment decisions. In a March “Ask me anything” event on Reddit, a user asked about his purchases of farmland. His response: “My investment group chose to do this.”\nTwo decades ago, Larson put it more bluntly.\n“When people find out that Cascade has made an investment in something, that’s not Bill Gates,” he said in the Fortune interview. “I wish everyone understood that.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120599103,"gmtCreate":1624326756402,"gmtModify":1634007748909,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"3","listText":"3","text":"3","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120599103","repostId":"2145703342","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120599021,"gmtCreate":1624326749063,"gmtModify":1634007749031,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2","listText":"2","text":"2","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120599021","repostId":"2145363910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120590624,"gmtCreate":1624326737568,"gmtModify":1634007749382,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120590624","repostId":"1184611063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120507787,"gmtCreate":1624326725549,"gmtModify":1634007750100,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120507787","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167253167,"gmtCreate":1624272840159,"gmtModify":1634008608533,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167253167","repostId":"1155298441","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167832436,"gmtCreate":1624257383525,"gmtModify":1634008776934,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167832436","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167836675,"gmtCreate":1624257322297,"gmtModify":1634008777775,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kk","listText":"Kk","text":"Kk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167836675","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167836174,"gmtCreate":1624257303298,"gmtModify":1634008777898,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"U","listText":"U","text":"U","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167836174","repostId":"1113916113","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167838587,"gmtCreate":1624257275249,"gmtModify":1634008778246,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167838587","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162798386,"gmtCreate":1624074726245,"gmtModify":1634011025933,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162798386","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162791709,"gmtCreate":1624074712501,"gmtModify":1634011026155,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162791709","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162791439,"gmtCreate":1624074696721,"gmtModify":1634011026277,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162791439","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166597329,"gmtCreate":1624016331961,"gmtModify":1634024091901,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166597329","repostId":"1133025835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":120599103,"gmtCreate":1624326756402,"gmtModify":1634007748909,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"3","listText":"3","text":"3","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120599103","repostId":"2145703342","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120507787,"gmtCreate":1624326725549,"gmtModify":1634007750100,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120507787","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184723616,"gmtCreate":1623726059235,"gmtModify":1634029495230,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSiz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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624362092,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110726798?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110726798","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stock futures rise to extend earlier gains.\nTorchlight Energy Price Gains Premarket.\nGameStop Jumps ","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures rise to extend earlier gains.</li>  <li>Torchlight Energy Price Gains Premarket.</li>  <li>GameStop Jumps After Raising More Than $1 Billion in New Shares.</li>  <li>GameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms &amp; more made the biggest moves in the premarket.</li> </ul> (June 22)&nbsp;Stock futures rose Tuesday morning to build on gains from a day earlier, with equities recovering from concerns over the path forward for monetary policy last week.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股票期货上涨，延续了早些时候的涨幅。</li><li>Torchlight Energy价格盘前上涨。</li><li>游戏驿站在新股融资超过10亿美元后股价上涨。</li><li>游戏驿站、MicroVision、Sanderson Farms等在盘前做出了最大的动作。</li></ul>（6月22日）股指期货周二上午上涨，延续前一天的涨幅，股市从上周对货币政策前进方向的担忧中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:47&nbsp;a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 23 points, or 0.07%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.75 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 39.25 points, or 0.28%.</p><p><blockquote>早上7点47分。美国东部时间，道指e-minis上涨23点，涨幅0.07%，标普500 e-minis上涨5.75点，涨幅0.14%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨39.25点，涨幅0.28%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127a76b6bde89676371162b1b268b550\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：游戏驿站、MicroVision、桑德森农场等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer's stock jumped 6.8% in the premarket after it had announced it had completed a previously announced sale of 5 million common shares, raising $1.126 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）游戏驿站（GME）</b>–这家视频游戏零售商宣布已完成之前宣布的500万股普通股出售，筹集11.26亿美元，该公司股价在盘前上涨6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;MicroVision(MVIS)</b> – MicroVision shares slid 10.8% in the premarket after the laser technology company said it would sell up to $140 million of stock \"from time to time\" and use the funds for general corporate purposes.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）微视（MVIS）</b>–MicroVision股价盘前下跌10.8%，此前这家激光技术公司表示将“不时”出售最多1.4亿美元的股票，并将资金用于一般公司用途。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Sanderson Farms(SAFM) </b>– Sanderson Farms is exploring a possible sale, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. The paper said the poultry producer has already drawn interest from suitors such as agricultural investment firm Continental Grain. The stock surged 10% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）桑德森农场（SAFM）</b>-据接受《华尔街日报》采访的知情人士透露，桑德森农场正在探索可能的出售。该报称，这家家禽生产商已经引起了农业投资公司Continental Grain等追求者的兴趣。该股在盘前上涨10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)</b> – Torchlight shares gained another 4.9% in premarket trading after a 58% surge in Monday's trading. The oil and gas producer is among the stocks getting increased social media attention on sites like Reddit and Stocktwits.</p><p><blockquote><b>4)火炬之光能源(TRCH)</b>-Torchlight股价在周一交易中飙升58%后，在盘前交易中又上涨4.9%。这家石油和天然气生产商是Reddit和Stocktwits等网站上社交媒体关注度越来越高的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL) </b>– The European Unionhas opened a formal antitrust probeof Google's digital ad practices. Part of the investigation will cover some of the same areas involved in a case filed by several U.S. states against the Alphabet operation last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）Alphabet（GOOGL）</b>-欧盟对谷歌的数字广告行为展开了正式的反垄断调查。部分调查将涵盖去年美国几个州针对Alphabet行动提起的案件所涉及的一些相同领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Korn Ferry(KFY)</b> – The consulting firm reported quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 98 cents a share. Revenue topped Wall Street forecasts as well, boosted by its services that help businesses with organizational issues.</p><p><blockquote><b>6）光辉国际（KFY）</b>–该咨询公司报告季度收益为每股1.21美元，超出普遍预期的每股98美分。得益于帮助企业解决组织问题的服务，收入也超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Plug Power(PLUG)</b> – The alternative energy provider lost 12 cents per share for its latest quarter, wider than the 8 cents a share loss analysts were expecting. Revenue also came in below estimates. The company said it was hurt by short-term issues – such as hydrogen shortages and the Texas freeze – which are abating in the current quarter. Plug Power shares gained 1.4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）普拉格能源（插头）</b>–这家替代能源提供商最近一个季度每股亏损12美分，高于分析师预期的每股8美分。收入也低于预期。该公司表示，它受到了短期问题的损害，例如氢气短缺和德克萨斯州冰冻，这些问题在本季度正在缓解。普拉格能源股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Boeing(BA)</b> – Boeing announced the departure of lobbyist and political strategist Tim Keating. No reason was given for Keating’s departure, though the company said a search is underway for a permanent replacement. Keating was a key figure helping Boeing navigate the crisis that followed two fatal crashes of the company’s 737 Max jet.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）波音（BA）</b>——波音宣布说客、政治战略家蒂姆·基廷离职。基廷没有给出离职的原因，但该公司表示正在寻找永久替代者。基廷是帮助波音公司度过该公司737 Max喷气式飞机发生两起致命坠机事件后危机的关键人物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Delta Air Lines(DAL) </b>– Delta plans to hire 1,000 more pilots by next summer, according to an internal company memo. The move comes amid a rebound in travel, with Delta saying the leisure travel is already back to pre-pandemic levels and business travel is picking up as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>9)达美航空(DAL)</b>-根据公司内部备忘录，达美航空计划在明年夏天之前再雇佣1,000名飞行员。此举正值旅游业反弹之际，达美航空表示，休闲旅行已经恢复到大流行前的水平，商务旅行也在回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown remains on watch today following a 5.5% Monday drop. The electric vehicle maker’s executive chairman Angela Strand said the company is “evaluating strategic partners” as part of its search for new funding.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-继周一下跌5.5%后，洛兹敦今天仍受到关注。这家电动汽车制造商的执行主席安吉拉·斯特兰德表示，该公司正在“评估战略合作伙伴”，作为寻找新资金的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(XOM) </b>– Exxon Mobil is denying a Bloomberg report that it plans to cut 5% to 10% of its office workforce annually over the next three to five years. Exxon told CNBC it is merely going through its annual employee assessments, which are unrelated to workforce reductions.</p><p><blockquote><b>11)埃克森美孚(XOM)</b>-埃克森美孚否认了彭博社的一份报告，该报告称该公司计划在未来三到五年内每年裁员5%到10%。埃克森美孚告诉CNBC，它只是在进行年度员工评估，这与裁员无关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;CrowdStrike(CRWD) </b>– CrowdStrike was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Stifel Financial, which points to the cybersecurity company’s potential to increase profit margins and its ability to acquire new customers. CrowdStrike gained 2.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>12)CrowdStrike(CRWD)</b>–Stifel Financial将CrowdStrike的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，这表明这家网络安全公司具有提高利润率的潜力及其获取新客户的能力。CrowdStrike盘前上涨2.8%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 19:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Stock futures rise to extend earlier gains.</li>  <li>Torchlight Energy Price Gains Premarket.</li>  <li>GameStop Jumps After Raising More Than $1 Billion in New Shares.</li>  <li>GameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms &amp; more made the biggest moves in the premarket.</li> </ul> (June 22)&nbsp;Stock futures rose Tuesday morning to build on gains from a day earlier, with equities recovering from concerns over the path forward for monetary policy last week.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股票期货上涨，延续了早些时候的涨幅。</li><li>Torchlight Energy价格盘前上涨。</li><li>游戏驿站在新股融资超过10亿美元后股价上涨。</li><li>游戏驿站、MicroVision、Sanderson Farms等在盘前做出了最大的动作。</li></ul>（6月22日）股指期货周二上午上涨，延续前一天的涨幅，股市从上周对货币政策前进方向的担忧中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> At 7:47&nbsp;a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 23 points, or 0.07%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.75 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 39.25 points, or 0.28%.</p><p><blockquote>早上7点47分。美国东部时间，道指e-minis上涨23点，涨幅0.07%，标普500 e-minis上涨5.75点，涨幅0.14%，纳斯达克100 e-minis上涨39.25点，涨幅0.28%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/127a76b6bde89676371162b1b268b550\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms &amp; more</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：游戏驿站、MicroVision、桑德森农场等</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;GameStop(GME)</b> – The videogame retailer's stock jumped 6.8% in the premarket after it had announced it had completed a previously announced sale of 5 million common shares, raising $1.126 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）游戏驿站（GME）</b>–这家视频游戏零售商宣布已完成之前宣布的500万股普通股出售，筹集11.26亿美元，该公司股价在盘前上涨6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;MicroVision(MVIS)</b> – MicroVision shares slid 10.8% in the premarket after the laser technology company said it would sell up to $140 million of stock \"from time to time\" and use the funds for general corporate purposes.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）微视（MVIS）</b>–MicroVision股价盘前下跌10.8%，此前这家激光技术公司表示将“不时”出售最多1.4亿美元的股票，并将资金用于一般公司用途。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;Sanderson Farms(SAFM) </b>– Sanderson Farms is exploring a possible sale, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. The paper said the poultry producer has already drawn interest from suitors such as agricultural investment firm Continental Grain. The stock surged 10% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）桑德森农场（SAFM）</b>-据接受《华尔街日报》采访的知情人士透露，桑德森农场正在探索可能的出售。该报称，这家家禽生产商已经引起了农业投资公司Continental Grain等追求者的兴趣。该股在盘前上涨10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH)</b> – Torchlight shares gained another 4.9% in premarket trading after a 58% surge in Monday's trading. The oil and gas producer is among the stocks getting increased social media attention on sites like Reddit and Stocktwits.</p><p><blockquote><b>4)火炬之光能源(TRCH)</b>-Torchlight股价在周一交易中飙升58%后，在盘前交易中又上涨4.9%。这家石油和天然气生产商是Reddit和Stocktwits等网站上社交媒体关注度越来越高的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5)&nbsp;Alphabet(GOOGL) </b>– The European Unionhas opened a formal antitrust probeof Google's digital ad practices. Part of the investigation will cover some of the same areas involved in a case filed by several U.S. states against the Alphabet operation last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>5）Alphabet（GOOGL）</b>-欧盟对谷歌的数字广告行为展开了正式的反垄断调查。部分调查将涵盖去年美国几个州针对Alphabet行动提起的案件所涉及的一些相同领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;Korn Ferry(KFY)</b> – The consulting firm reported quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 98 cents a share. Revenue topped Wall Street forecasts as well, boosted by its services that help businesses with organizational issues.</p><p><blockquote><b>6）光辉国际（KFY）</b>–该咨询公司报告季度收益为每股1.21美元，超出普遍预期的每股98美分。得益于帮助企业解决组织问题的服务，收入也超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;Plug Power(PLUG)</b> – The alternative energy provider lost 12 cents per share for its latest quarter, wider than the 8 cents a share loss analysts were expecting. Revenue also came in below estimates. The company said it was hurt by short-term issues – such as hydrogen shortages and the Texas freeze – which are abating in the current quarter. Plug Power shares gained 1.4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）普拉格能源（插头）</b>–这家替代能源提供商最近一个季度每股亏损12美分，高于分析师预期的每股8美分。收入也低于预期。该公司表示，它受到了短期问题的损害，例如氢气短缺和德克萨斯州冰冻，这些问题在本季度正在缓解。普拉格能源股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>8)&nbsp;Boeing(BA)</b> – Boeing announced the departure of lobbyist and political strategist Tim Keating. No reason was given for Keating’s departure, though the company said a search is underway for a permanent replacement. Keating was a key figure helping Boeing navigate the crisis that followed two fatal crashes of the company’s 737 Max jet.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）波音（BA）</b>——波音宣布说客、政治战略家蒂姆·基廷离职。基廷没有给出离职的原因，但该公司表示正在寻找永久替代者。基廷是帮助波音公司度过该公司737 Max喷气式飞机发生两起致命坠机事件后危机的关键人物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>9)&nbsp;Delta Air Lines(DAL) </b>– Delta plans to hire 1,000 more pilots by next summer, according to an internal company memo. The move comes amid a rebound in travel, with Delta saying the leisure travel is already back to pre-pandemic levels and business travel is picking up as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>9)达美航空(DAL)</b>-根据公司内部备忘录，达美航空计划在明年夏天之前再雇佣1,000名飞行员。此举正值旅游业反弹之际，达美航空表示，休闲旅行已经恢复到大流行前的水平，商务旅行也在回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10)&nbsp;Lordstown Motors(RIDE)</b> – Lordstown remains on watch today following a 5.5% Monday drop. The electric vehicle maker’s executive chairman Angela Strand said the company is “evaluating strategic partners” as part of its search for new funding.</p><p><blockquote><b>10)洛兹敦汽车公司(RIDE)</b>-继周一下跌5.5%后，洛兹敦今天仍受到关注。这家电动汽车制造商的执行主席安吉拉·斯特兰德表示，该公司正在“评估战略合作伙伴”，作为寻找新资金的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>11)&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(XOM) </b>– Exxon Mobil is denying a Bloomberg report that it plans to cut 5% to 10% of its office workforce annually over the next three to five years. Exxon told CNBC it is merely going through its annual employee assessments, which are unrelated to workforce reductions.</p><p><blockquote><b>11)埃克森美孚(XOM)</b>-埃克森美孚否认了彭博社的一份报告，该报告称该公司计划在未来三到五年内每年裁员5%到10%。埃克森美孚告诉CNBC，它只是在进行年度员工评估，这与裁员无关。</blockquote></p><p> <b>12)&nbsp;CrowdStrike(CRWD) </b>– CrowdStrike was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Stifel Financial, which points to the cybersecurity company’s potential to increase profit margins and its ability to acquire new customers. CrowdStrike gained 2.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>12)CrowdStrike(CRWD)</b>–Stifel Financial将CrowdStrike的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，这表明这家网络安全公司具有提高利润率的潜力及其获取新客户的能力。CrowdStrike盘前上涨2.8%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110726798","content_text":"Stock futures rise to extend earlier gains.\nTorchlight Energy Price Gains Premarket.\nGameStop Jumps After Raising More Than $1 Billion in New Shares.\nGameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms & more made the biggest moves in the premarket.\n\n(June 22) Stock futures rose Tuesday morning to build on gains from a day earlier, with equities recovering from concerns over the path forward for monetary policy last week.\nAt 7:47 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 23 points, or 0.07%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.75 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 39.25 points, or 0.28%.\n\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: GameStop, MicroVision, Sanderson Farms & more\n1) GameStop(GME) – The videogame retailer's stock jumped 6.8% in the premarket after it had announced it had completed a previously announced sale of 5 million common shares, raising $1.126 billion.\n2) MicroVision(MVIS) – MicroVision shares slid 10.8% in the premarket after the laser technology company said it would sell up to $140 million of stock \"from time to time\" and use the funds for general corporate purposes.\n3) Sanderson Farms(SAFM) – Sanderson Farms is exploring a possible sale, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. The paper said the poultry producer has already drawn interest from suitors such as agricultural investment firm Continental Grain. The stock surged 10% in premarket action.\n4) Torchlight Energy Resources(TRCH) – Torchlight shares gained another 4.9% in premarket trading after a 58% surge in Monday's trading. The oil and gas producer is among the stocks getting increased social media attention on sites like Reddit and Stocktwits.\n5) Alphabet(GOOGL) – The European Unionhas opened a formal antitrust probeof Google's digital ad practices. Part of the investigation will cover some of the same areas involved in a case filed by several U.S. states against the Alphabet operation last year.\n6) Korn Ferry(KFY) – The consulting firm reported quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share, beating the consensus estimate of 98 cents a share. Revenue topped Wall Street forecasts as well, boosted by its services that help businesses with organizational issues.\n7) Plug Power(PLUG) – The alternative energy provider lost 12 cents per share for its latest quarter, wider than the 8 cents a share loss analysts were expecting. Revenue also came in below estimates. The company said it was hurt by short-term issues – such as hydrogen shortages and the Texas freeze – which are abating in the current quarter. Plug Power shares gained 1.4% in premarket trading.\n8) Boeing(BA) – Boeing announced the departure of lobbyist and political strategist Tim Keating. No reason was given for Keating’s departure, though the company said a search is underway for a permanent replacement. Keating was a key figure helping Boeing navigate the crisis that followed two fatal crashes of the company’s 737 Max jet.\n9) Delta Air Lines(DAL) – Delta plans to hire 1,000 more pilots by next summer, according to an internal company memo. The move comes amid a rebound in travel, with Delta saying the leisure travel is already back to pre-pandemic levels and business travel is picking up as well.\n10) Lordstown Motors(RIDE) – Lordstown remains on watch today following a 5.5% Monday drop. The electric vehicle maker’s executive chairman Angela Strand said the company is “evaluating strategic partners” as part of its search for new funding.\n11) Exxon Mobil(XOM) – Exxon Mobil is denying a Bloomberg report that it plans to cut 5% to 10% of its office workforce annually over the next three to five years. Exxon told CNBC it is merely going through its annual employee assessments, which are unrelated to workforce reductions.\n12) CrowdStrike(CRWD) – CrowdStrike was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” at Stifel Financial, which points to the cybersecurity company’s potential to increase profit margins and its ability to acquire new customers. CrowdStrike gained 2.8% in the premarket.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167253167,"gmtCreate":1624272840159,"gmtModify":1634008608533,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167253167","repostId":"1155298441","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166597329,"gmtCreate":1624016331961,"gmtModify":1634024091901,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166597329","repostId":"1133025835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166854663,"gmtCreate":1624003750452,"gmtModify":1634024271968,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166854663","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161641204,"gmtCreate":1623925150708,"gmtModify":1634025812015,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161641204","repostId":"1178091722","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123361635,"gmtCreate":1624409508927,"gmtModify":1634006583458,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kk","listText":"Kk","text":"Kk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123361635","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123363526,"gmtCreate":1624409495965,"gmtModify":1634006584066,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123363526","repostId":"2145066030","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120590624,"gmtCreate":1624326737568,"gmtModify":1634007749382,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120590624","repostId":"1184611063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167838587,"gmtCreate":1624257275249,"gmtModify":1634008778246,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167838587","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162791709,"gmtCreate":1624074712501,"gmtModify":1634011026155,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162791709","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187920313,"gmtCreate":1623735617332,"gmtModify":1634029339606,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187920313","repostId":"2143178756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123363620,"gmtCreate":1624409480260,"gmtModify":1634006584315,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123363620","repostId":"2145066828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129115376,"gmtCreate":1624364862995,"gmtModify":1634007259471,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129115376","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120593920,"gmtCreate":1624326779960,"gmtModify":1634007748169,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120593920","repostId":"2145036614","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120599281,"gmtCreate":1624326766343,"gmtModify":1634007748663,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5","listText":"5","text":"5","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120599281","repostId":"1174609211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174609211","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624325385,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174609211?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gates Split Casts Harsh Glare on $170 Billion Money Manager<blockquote>盖茨的分拆给1700亿美元的基金经理带来了严厉的目光</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174609211","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- For almost three decades, Michael Larson has quietly shuffled around one of the world","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- For almost three decades, Michael Larson has quietly shuffled around one of the world’s biggest fortunes with a chief priority: Keep his fabulously wealthy bosses out of the headlines.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——近三十年来，迈克尔·拉森一直在悄悄地洗牌世界上最大的财富之一，他的首要任务是：让他极其富有的老板远离头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> The conservative bets, the nondescript office, the investment firm’s generic-sounding name; they were all carefully designed to shield Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates from criticism and produce steady, if seemingly unimpressive, returns.</p><p><blockquote>保守的赌注、不起眼的办公室、投资公司听起来很普通的名字；它们都是精心设计的，以保护比尔·盖茨和梅林达·弗伦奇·盖茨免受批评，并产生稳定的回报，尽管看起来不起眼。</blockquote></p><p> The couple’s divorce announcement last month cracked the curated image. Unflattering details spilled out, including a report that Larson had allegedly harassed and bullied some employees.</p><p><blockquote>这对夫妇上个月的离婚声明打破了策划的形象。令人不快的细节被泄露，包括一份关于拉森涉嫌骚扰和欺负一些员工的报告。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, a spokesman said that Bill and Melinda Gates Investments -- the 100-person strong team led by Larson that’s overseen their personal fortune and the endowment of their namesake foundation -- changed its name to Cascade Asset Management Co. The moniker closely resembles Cascade Investment, which historically has been the part of BMGI that manages the Gateses’ personal wealth.</p><p><blockquote>周一，一位发言人表示，比尔和梅琳达·盖茨投资公司（Bill and Melinda Gates Investments）更名为Cascade Asset Management Co。这个绰号与Cascade Investment非常相似，Cascade Investment历来是BMGI管理盖茨夫妇个人财富的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> The rebranding is the latest step in the unfolding story of what will happen to one of the world’s largest fortunes when Gates and French Gates finalize their divorce. Larson was hired by the Microsoft Corp. billionaire in the mid-1990s to oversee that wealth.</p><p><blockquote>此次品牌重塑是正在展开的故事的最新一步，当盖茨和法国人盖茨最终离婚时，世界上最大的财富之一将会发生什么。20世纪90年代中期，这位微软亿万富翁聘请拉森来监管这笔财富。</blockquote></p><p> The sprawling portfolio under his purview, estimated by Bloomberg News to be valued at about $170 billion, has over the years generated returns that beat the broader stock market by about a percentage point, according to financial filings and people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据财务文件和知情人士透露，据彭博新闻社估计，他管理的庞大投资组合价值约1700亿美元，多年来产生的回报比大盘高出约一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The record illustrates the priorities of the uppermost strata of the ultrarich, where investment horizons span generations and riskier bets often don’t outweigh the value of a good reputation. Part of Larson’s job was to help Bill Gates uphold his image as a wonky billionaire devoted to fixing the world’s challenges, rather than make bold moves that could draw scrutiny.</p><p><blockquote>这一记录说明了超级富豪最上层的优先事项，他们的投资期限跨越几代人，风险较高的赌注往往不会超过良好声誉的价值。拉森的部分工作是帮助比尔·盖茨维护他作为致力于解决世界挑战的不可靠亿万富翁的形象，而不是做出可能引起审查的大胆举动。</blockquote></p><p> “The price some of these guys are willing to pay to stay out of the news is high,” said Tayyab Mohamed, co-founder of family office recruiting firm Agreus Group.</p><p><blockquote>家族办公室招聘公司Agreus Group的联合创始人塔亚布·穆罕默德(Tayyab Mohamed)表示：“其中一些人愿意为远离新闻而付出的代价很高。”</blockquote></p><p> The divorce and recent revelations about Cascade’s workplace culture, reported by the New York Times, raise questions about what’s next for Larson and the fortune he oversees. A spokesman for Cascade said BMGI is changing its name “to allow for the evolving needs of the Gates family and their philanthropic work” and that the group’s investment strategy and organizational structure won’t change.</p><p><blockquote>《纽约时报》报道了这起离婚事件以及最近有关卡斯卡德工作场所文化的爆料，引发了人们对拉森和他监管的财富的下一步发展的质疑。Cascade的一位发言人表示，BMGI正在更名，“以满足盖茨家族及其慈善工作不断变化的需求”，并且该集团的投资战略和组织结构不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> French Gates, whose name was added to BMGI in 2014, has been in focus after Cascade transferred equity stakes worth more than $3 billion to her, leading some in the industry to speculate she’s in the process of claiming an even larger control of her share of the riches. Their combined wealth stands at more than $140 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.</p><p><blockquote>弗伦奇·盖茨(French Gates)的名字于2014年加入BMGI，在Cascade将价值超过30亿美元的股权转让给她后，她一直成为人们关注的焦点，导致一些业内人士猜测她正在要求对自己的股份拥有更大的控制权。财富。根据彭博亿万富翁指数，他们的总财富超过1400亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Larson, 61, has admitted that he sometimes used harsh language, as alleged in the Times reporting, but denied that he mistreated staff. A Cascade representative has said the matters were examined and didn’t warrant his dismissal. A representative for Gates didn’t respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>61岁的拉森承认，正如《泰晤士报》报道中所指控的那样，他有时会使用严厉的语言，但否认他虐待员工。Cascade的一名代表表示，这些事情已经过审查，没有理由解雇他。盖茨的代表没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Mohamed said it’s of little surprise that Larson has remained in his role after the allegations, given his decades-long tenure with Gates and the loyalty it has likely engendered.</p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德表示，考虑到拉森在盖茨长达数十年的任期以及由此可能产生的忠诚，拉森在指控后继续留任并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> “Had Larson not had the professional impact he had, it would be a simple yes, he should resign,” said Mohamed, whose company helps family offices fill leadership positions.</p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德说：“如果拉森没有像他那样的职业影响力，那就是简单的“是的，他应该辞职”，他的公司帮助家族理财室填补领导职位。</blockquote></p><p> Larson, often clad in a pink shirt, shies from the limelight and rarely attends conferences for family office professionals. A former bond-fund manager, he won Gates’s loyalty by delivering consistent returns and instilling in employees the notion that their primary focus was to protect their benefactor’s good name, according to people familiar with Cascade, who asked not to be named speaking about the company’s inner workings.</p><p><blockquote>拉森经常穿着粉色衬衫，回避聚光灯，很少参加家族理财室专业人士的会议。据熟悉Cascade的人士透露，作为一名前债券基金经理，他通过提供稳定的回报并向员工灌输他们的主要关注点是保护捐助者的好名声的观念，赢得了盖茨的忠诚。在谈到公司的内部运作时，这些人士要求匿名。</blockquote></p><p> The manager had broad leeway from Gates on investment decisions, they both have said. French Gates rarely attended meetings in Cascade’s early days aside from the annual in-person gathering, and when she did she tended to be a passive participant, according to one of the people familiar with the firm.</p><p><blockquote>他们都表示，这位经理在投资决策上与盖茨有很大的回旋余地。据一位熟悉该公司的人士透露，在Cascade早期，除了年度面对面聚会外，弗伦奇·盖茨很少参加会议，即使参加，她也往往是被动的参与者。</blockquote></p><p> She was unaware of most of the allegations involving Larson “given her lack of ownership of and control over BMGI,” her spokeswoman, Courtney Wade, said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>她的发言人考特尼·韦德(Courtney Wade)在一份声明中表示，“鉴于拉森缺乏对BMGI的所有权和控制权”，她并不知道涉及拉森的大部分指控。</blockquote></p><p> It’s unclear where French Gates is keeping her money, including the more than $3 billion that has been transferred from Cascade, and whether she’s now setting up a family office of her own. She also runs Pivotal Ventures, an investment and incubation firm founded in 2015 that focuses on gender and racial equality and employs roughly 90 people.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚French Gates将她的钱放在哪里，包括从Cascade转移的超过30亿美元，也不清楚她现在是否正在建立自己的家族办公室。她还经营着Pivotal Ventures，这是一家投资和孵化公司，成立于2015年，专注于性别和种族平等，拥有约90名员工。</blockquote></p><p> Conservative Mandate</p><p><blockquote>保守授权</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Being the investment chief for one of the world’s biggest family fortunes might seem like an enviable job for an investor mulling creative bets. There’s hardly a worry about fundraising, client withdrawals or onerous regulations. But it often instead involves simply keeping wealth steady.</p><p><blockquote>对于考虑创造性赌注的投资者来说，成为世界上最大家族财富之一的投资主管似乎是一份令人羡慕的工作。几乎不用担心筹款、客户提款或繁琐的监管。但它往往只是简单地保持财富稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from detracting attention from the Gateses, Larson’s main mandate has been to invest conservatively -- try to maximize returns but don’t lose money, one of the people said.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位知情人士表示，除了转移人们对盖茨夫妇的注意力外，拉森的主要任务是保守投资——努力实现回报最大化，但不要亏损。</blockquote></p><p> That reflects the typical investment approaches of big family offices and foundations, said Raphael Amit, professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院管理学教授拉斐尔·阿米特表示，这反映了大型家族办公室和基金会的典型投资方式。</blockquote></p><p> “The No. 1 objective is preservation of capital,” he said, adding that’s why family office portfolios are so diverse, including not just public equities, but also fixed income, commodities and assets such as art.</p><p><blockquote>“首要目标是保本，”他说，并补充说这就是家族办公室投资组合如此多样化的原因，不仅包括公共股票，还包括固定收益、大宗商品和艺术品等资产。</blockquote></p><p> In a Fortune story from two decades ago, Larson explained that much of his strategy boiled down to countering the swings of Microsoft stock. At the time, the portfolios both for the foundation and for the Gateses’ personal money mostly consisted of bonds, with some bets on private equity, commodities, Florida real estate and British hotels.</p><p><blockquote>在二十年前的《财富》杂志的一篇报道中，拉尔森解释说，他的大部分策略都归结为对抗微软股票的波动。当时，基金会和盖茨夫妇个人资金的投资组合主要由债券组成，部分押注于私募股权、大宗商品、佛罗里达州房地产和英国酒店。</blockquote></p><p> That has shifted. Today Cascade holds about $57 billion in public equities, ranging from farm-equipment maker Deere &amp; Co. to track operator Canadian National Railway Co. to waste management firm Republic Services Inc. -- companies rooted in the physical world of making, moving and selling goods, and cleaning things up.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况已经改变了。如今，Cascade持有约570亿美元的公共股票，从农业设备制造商Deere公司到轨道运营商加拿大国家铁路公司，再到废物管理公司Republic Services Inc.——这些公司植根于制造、运输和销售商品和清理物品的物理世界。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade also owns around 270,000 acres of land, enough to make it the single biggest owner of U.S. farmland, according to the Land Report. The firm also has been involved in currency and commodities trading, venture capital and the development of a property complex in downtown Tampa.</p><p><blockquote>根据土地报告，Cascade还拥有约270,000英亩的土地，足以使其成为美国最大的农田所有者。该公司还参与了货币和大宗商品交易、风险投资以及坦帕市中心房地产综合体的开发。</blockquote></p><p> The foundation’s most recent tax returns also shows $804 million of corporate bonds and $5.8 billion of other investments like mortgage-backed securities, bank loans and sovereign debt.</p><p><blockquote>该基金会最近的纳税申报表还显示，8.04亿美元的公司债券和58亿美元的其他投资，如抵押贷款支持证券、银行贷款和主权债务。</blockquote></p><p> Stable Returns</p><p><blockquote>稳定的回报</blockquote></p><p> Cascade doesn’t disclose its overall investment performance, but financial reports from the foundation offer clues. The foundation’s assets under management have returned an average of about 8.6% per year since 2001, according to a person familiar with the matter, beating the S&amp;P 500 Index’s average annual 7.5% gain over the past two decades. That track record is broadly representative of Cascade’s overall returns, another person said.</p><p><blockquote>Cascade没有透露其整体投资业绩，但基金会的财务报告提供了线索。据一位知情人士透露，自2001年以来，该基金会管理的资产平均每年回报率约为8.6%，超过了标普500指数过去二十年7.5%的年均涨幅。另一位人士表示，这一业绩记录广泛代表了Cascade的整体回报。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade’s assets have periodically been boosted by proceeds from the sales of Gates’s Microsoft stock. And Warren Buffett, the founder of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., has periodically given shares in the conglomerate worth billions of dollars to the foundation. Buffett is one of the Gates Foundation’s three board members alongside Gates and French Gates, but has no involvement in investment decisions of the endowment, according to the foundation.</p><p><blockquote>盖茨出售微软股票的收益定期增加Cascade的资产。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway Inc.）的创始人沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）定期向该基金会捐赠价值数十亿美元的该集团股票。据该基金会称，巴菲特与盖茨和弗伦奇·盖茨一起是盖茨基金会的三名董事会成员之一，但不参与捐赠基金的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> One remarkable feature of the portfolio is how little it changes. Of the 15 stocks listed in the foundation trust’s most recent filing, which discloses positions traded on U.S. exchanges, 10 of them were in the portfolio a decade ago.</p><p><blockquote>投资组合的一个显着特点是变化很小。基金会信托最近提交的文件披露了在美国交易所交易的头寸，其中列出了15只股票，其中10只股票十年前就在投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p> The holdings haven’t uniformly jived with the Gateses’ charitable endeavors or priorities, which include global health and, more recently, climate change.</p><p><blockquote>这些资产与盖茨夫妇的慈善事业或优先事项并不一致，其中包括全球健康和最近的气候变化。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade held investments in oil and gas companies until 2019, Gates said in his recent book about climate change. It was long the biggest owner of Signature Aviation Plc, the world’s largest operator of private-jet bases, before joining a consortium that took the company private this year. And it’s the biggest shareholder of Republic Services Inc., which for years has feuded with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union, whose members are employees.</p><p><blockquote>盖茨在他最近关于气候变化的书中表示，Cascade在2019年之前一直持有对石油和天然气公司的投资。在加入今年将该公司私有化的财团之前，它长期以来一直是全球最大的私人飞机基地运营商Signature Aviation Plc的最大所有者。它是Republic Services Inc.的最大股东，该公司多年来一直与国际卡车司机工会兄弟会不和，后者的成员是雇员。</blockquote></p><p> Gates has occasionally made it clear that Larson has broad discretion to make investment decisions. In a March “Ask me anything” event on Reddit, a user asked about his purchases of farmland. His response: “My investment group chose to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>盖茨偶尔会明确表示，拉森拥有做出投资决策的广泛自由裁量权。在Reddit上3月份的“问我任何问题”活动中，一名用户询问了他购买农田的情况。他的回应是：“我的投资团队选择了这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> Two decades ago, Larson put it more bluntly.</p><p><blockquote>二十年前，拉尔森说得更直白。</blockquote></p><p> “When people find out that Cascade has made an investment in something, that’s not Bill Gates,” he said in the Fortune interview. “I wish everyone understood that.”</p><p><blockquote>“当人们发现Cascade投资了某件事时，那就不是比尔·盖茨了，”他在接受《财富》采访时表示。“我希望每个人都能理解这一点。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gates Split Casts Harsh Glare on $170 Billion Money Manager<blockquote>盖茨的分拆给1700亿美元的基金经理带来了严厉的目光</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGates Split Casts Harsh Glare on $170 Billion Money Manager<blockquote>盖茨的分拆给1700亿美元的基金经理带来了严厉的目光</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- For almost three decades, Michael Larson has quietly shuffled around one of the world’s biggest fortunes with a chief priority: Keep his fabulously wealthy bosses out of the headlines.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——近三十年来，迈克尔·拉森一直在悄悄地洗牌世界上最大的财富之一，他的首要任务是：让他极其富有的老板远离头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> The conservative bets, the nondescript office, the investment firm’s generic-sounding name; they were all carefully designed to shield Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates from criticism and produce steady, if seemingly unimpressive, returns.</p><p><blockquote>保守的赌注、不起眼的办公室、投资公司听起来很普通的名字；它们都是精心设计的，以保护比尔·盖茨和梅林达·弗伦奇·盖茨免受批评，并产生稳定的回报，尽管看起来不起眼。</blockquote></p><p> The couple’s divorce announcement last month cracked the curated image. Unflattering details spilled out, including a report that Larson had allegedly harassed and bullied some employees.</p><p><blockquote>这对夫妇上个月的离婚声明打破了策划的形象。令人不快的细节被泄露，包括一份关于拉森涉嫌骚扰和欺负一些员工的报告。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, a spokesman said that Bill and Melinda Gates Investments -- the 100-person strong team led by Larson that’s overseen their personal fortune and the endowment of their namesake foundation -- changed its name to Cascade Asset Management Co. The moniker closely resembles Cascade Investment, which historically has been the part of BMGI that manages the Gateses’ personal wealth.</p><p><blockquote>周一，一位发言人表示，比尔和梅琳达·盖茨投资公司（Bill and Melinda Gates Investments）更名为Cascade Asset Management Co。这个绰号与Cascade Investment非常相似，Cascade Investment历来是BMGI管理盖茨夫妇个人财富的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> The rebranding is the latest step in the unfolding story of what will happen to one of the world’s largest fortunes when Gates and French Gates finalize their divorce. Larson was hired by the Microsoft Corp. billionaire in the mid-1990s to oversee that wealth.</p><p><blockquote>此次品牌重塑是正在展开的故事的最新一步，当盖茨和法国人盖茨最终离婚时，世界上最大的财富之一将会发生什么。20世纪90年代中期，这位微软亿万富翁聘请拉森来监管这笔财富。</blockquote></p><p> The sprawling portfolio under his purview, estimated by Bloomberg News to be valued at about $170 billion, has over the years generated returns that beat the broader stock market by about a percentage point, according to financial filings and people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据财务文件和知情人士透露，据彭博新闻社估计，他管理的庞大投资组合价值约1700亿美元，多年来产生的回报比大盘高出约一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The record illustrates the priorities of the uppermost strata of the ultrarich, where investment horizons span generations and riskier bets often don’t outweigh the value of a good reputation. Part of Larson’s job was to help Bill Gates uphold his image as a wonky billionaire devoted to fixing the world’s challenges, rather than make bold moves that could draw scrutiny.</p><p><blockquote>这一记录说明了超级富豪最上层的优先事项，他们的投资期限跨越几代人，风险较高的赌注往往不会超过良好声誉的价值。拉森的部分工作是帮助比尔·盖茨维护他作为致力于解决世界挑战的不可靠亿万富翁的形象，而不是做出可能引起审查的大胆举动。</blockquote></p><p> “The price some of these guys are willing to pay to stay out of the news is high,” said Tayyab Mohamed, co-founder of family office recruiting firm Agreus Group.</p><p><blockquote>家族办公室招聘公司Agreus Group的联合创始人塔亚布·穆罕默德(Tayyab Mohamed)表示：“其中一些人愿意为远离新闻而付出的代价很高。”</blockquote></p><p> The divorce and recent revelations about Cascade’s workplace culture, reported by the New York Times, raise questions about what’s next for Larson and the fortune he oversees. A spokesman for Cascade said BMGI is changing its name “to allow for the evolving needs of the Gates family and their philanthropic work” and that the group’s investment strategy and organizational structure won’t change.</p><p><blockquote>《纽约时报》报道了这起离婚事件以及最近有关卡斯卡德工作场所文化的爆料，引发了人们对拉森和他监管的财富的下一步发展的质疑。Cascade的一位发言人表示，BMGI正在更名，“以满足盖茨家族及其慈善工作不断变化的需求”，并且该集团的投资战略和组织结构不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> French Gates, whose name was added to BMGI in 2014, has been in focus after Cascade transferred equity stakes worth more than $3 billion to her, leading some in the industry to speculate she’s in the process of claiming an even larger control of her share of the riches. Their combined wealth stands at more than $140 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.</p><p><blockquote>弗伦奇·盖茨(French Gates)的名字于2014年加入BMGI，在Cascade将价值超过30亿美元的股权转让给她后，她一直成为人们关注的焦点，导致一些业内人士猜测她正在要求对自己的股份拥有更大的控制权。财富。根据彭博亿万富翁指数，他们的总财富超过1400亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Larson, 61, has admitted that he sometimes used harsh language, as alleged in the Times reporting, but denied that he mistreated staff. A Cascade representative has said the matters were examined and didn’t warrant his dismissal. A representative for Gates didn’t respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>61岁的拉森承认，正如《泰晤士报》报道中所指控的那样，他有时会使用严厉的语言，但否认他虐待员工。Cascade的一名代表表示，这些事情已经过审查，没有理由解雇他。盖茨的代表没有回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> Mohamed said it’s of little surprise that Larson has remained in his role after the allegations, given his decades-long tenure with Gates and the loyalty it has likely engendered.</p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德表示，考虑到拉森在盖茨长达数十年的任期以及由此可能产生的忠诚，拉森在指控后继续留任并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> “Had Larson not had the professional impact he had, it would be a simple yes, he should resign,” said Mohamed, whose company helps family offices fill leadership positions.</p><p><blockquote>穆罕默德说：“如果拉森没有像他那样的职业影响力，那就是简单的“是的，他应该辞职”，他的公司帮助家族理财室填补领导职位。</blockquote></p><p> Larson, often clad in a pink shirt, shies from the limelight and rarely attends conferences for family office professionals. A former bond-fund manager, he won Gates’s loyalty by delivering consistent returns and instilling in employees the notion that their primary focus was to protect their benefactor’s good name, according to people familiar with Cascade, who asked not to be named speaking about the company’s inner workings.</p><p><blockquote>拉森经常穿着粉色衬衫，回避聚光灯，很少参加家族理财室专业人士的会议。据熟悉Cascade的人士透露，作为一名前债券基金经理，他通过提供稳定的回报并向员工灌输他们的主要关注点是保护捐助者的好名声的观念，赢得了盖茨的忠诚。在谈到公司的内部运作时，这些人士要求匿名。</blockquote></p><p> The manager had broad leeway from Gates on investment decisions, they both have said. French Gates rarely attended meetings in Cascade’s early days aside from the annual in-person gathering, and when she did she tended to be a passive participant, according to one of the people familiar with the firm.</p><p><blockquote>他们都表示，这位经理在投资决策上与盖茨有很大的回旋余地。据一位熟悉该公司的人士透露，在Cascade早期，除了年度面对面聚会外，弗伦奇·盖茨很少参加会议，即使参加，她也往往是被动的参与者。</blockquote></p><p> She was unaware of most of the allegations involving Larson “given her lack of ownership of and control over BMGI,” her spokeswoman, Courtney Wade, said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>她的发言人考特尼·韦德(Courtney Wade)在一份声明中表示，“鉴于拉森缺乏对BMGI的所有权和控制权”，她并不知道涉及拉森的大部分指控。</blockquote></p><p> It’s unclear where French Gates is keeping her money, including the more than $3 billion that has been transferred from Cascade, and whether she’s now setting up a family office of her own. She also runs Pivotal Ventures, an investment and incubation firm founded in 2015 that focuses on gender and racial equality and employs roughly 90 people.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚French Gates将她的钱放在哪里，包括从Cascade转移的超过30亿美元，也不清楚她现在是否正在建立自己的家族办公室。她还经营着Pivotal Ventures，这是一家投资和孵化公司，成立于2015年，专注于性别和种族平等，拥有约90名员工。</blockquote></p><p> Conservative Mandate</p><p><blockquote>保守授权</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Being the investment chief for one of the world’s biggest family fortunes might seem like an enviable job for an investor mulling creative bets. There’s hardly a worry about fundraising, client withdrawals or onerous regulations. But it often instead involves simply keeping wealth steady.</p><p><blockquote>对于考虑创造性赌注的投资者来说，成为世界上最大家族财富之一的投资主管似乎是一份令人羡慕的工作。几乎不用担心筹款、客户提款或繁琐的监管。但它往往只是简单地保持财富稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from detracting attention from the Gateses, Larson’s main mandate has been to invest conservatively -- try to maximize returns but don’t lose money, one of the people said.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位知情人士表示，除了转移人们对盖茨夫妇的注意力外，拉森的主要任务是保守投资——努力实现回报最大化，但不要亏损。</blockquote></p><p> That reflects the typical investment approaches of big family offices and foundations, said Raphael Amit, professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院管理学教授拉斐尔·阿米特表示，这反映了大型家族办公室和基金会的典型投资方式。</blockquote></p><p> “The No. 1 objective is preservation of capital,” he said, adding that’s why family office portfolios are so diverse, including not just public equities, but also fixed income, commodities and assets such as art.</p><p><blockquote>“首要目标是保本，”他说，并补充说这就是家族办公室投资组合如此多样化的原因，不仅包括公共股票，还包括固定收益、大宗商品和艺术品等资产。</blockquote></p><p> In a Fortune story from two decades ago, Larson explained that much of his strategy boiled down to countering the swings of Microsoft stock. At the time, the portfolios both for the foundation and for the Gateses’ personal money mostly consisted of bonds, with some bets on private equity, commodities, Florida real estate and British hotels.</p><p><blockquote>在二十年前的《财富》杂志的一篇报道中，拉尔森解释说，他的大部分策略都归结为对抗微软股票的波动。当时，基金会和盖茨夫妇个人资金的投资组合主要由债券组成，部分押注于私募股权、大宗商品、佛罗里达州房地产和英国酒店。</blockquote></p><p> That has shifted. Today Cascade holds about $57 billion in public equities, ranging from farm-equipment maker Deere &amp; Co. to track operator Canadian National Railway Co. to waste management firm Republic Services Inc. -- companies rooted in the physical world of making, moving and selling goods, and cleaning things up.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况已经改变了。如今，Cascade持有约570亿美元的公共股票，从农业设备制造商Deere公司到轨道运营商加拿大国家铁路公司，再到废物管理公司Republic Services Inc.——这些公司植根于制造、运输和销售商品和清理物品的物理世界。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade also owns around 270,000 acres of land, enough to make it the single biggest owner of U.S. farmland, according to the Land Report. The firm also has been involved in currency and commodities trading, venture capital and the development of a property complex in downtown Tampa.</p><p><blockquote>根据土地报告，Cascade还拥有约270,000英亩的土地，足以使其成为美国最大的农田所有者。该公司还参与了货币和大宗商品交易、风险投资以及坦帕市中心房地产综合体的开发。</blockquote></p><p> The foundation’s most recent tax returns also shows $804 million of corporate bonds and $5.8 billion of other investments like mortgage-backed securities, bank loans and sovereign debt.</p><p><blockquote>该基金会最近的纳税申报表还显示，8.04亿美元的公司债券和58亿美元的其他投资，如抵押贷款支持证券、银行贷款和主权债务。</blockquote></p><p> Stable Returns</p><p><blockquote>稳定的回报</blockquote></p><p> Cascade doesn’t disclose its overall investment performance, but financial reports from the foundation offer clues. The foundation’s assets under management have returned an average of about 8.6% per year since 2001, according to a person familiar with the matter, beating the S&amp;P 500 Index’s average annual 7.5% gain over the past two decades. That track record is broadly representative of Cascade’s overall returns, another person said.</p><p><blockquote>Cascade没有透露其整体投资业绩，但基金会的财务报告提供了线索。据一位知情人士透露，自2001年以来，该基金会管理的资产平均每年回报率约为8.6%，超过了标普500指数过去二十年7.5%的年均涨幅。另一位人士表示，这一业绩记录广泛代表了Cascade的整体回报。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade’s assets have periodically been boosted by proceeds from the sales of Gates’s Microsoft stock. And Warren Buffett, the founder of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., has periodically given shares in the conglomerate worth billions of dollars to the foundation. Buffett is one of the Gates Foundation’s three board members alongside Gates and French Gates, but has no involvement in investment decisions of the endowment, according to the foundation.</p><p><blockquote>盖茨出售微软股票的收益定期增加Cascade的资产。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway Inc.）的创始人沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）定期向该基金会捐赠价值数十亿美元的该集团股票。据该基金会称，巴菲特与盖茨和弗伦奇·盖茨一起是盖茨基金会的三名董事会成员之一，但不参与捐赠基金的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> One remarkable feature of the portfolio is how little it changes. Of the 15 stocks listed in the foundation trust’s most recent filing, which discloses positions traded on U.S. exchanges, 10 of them were in the portfolio a decade ago.</p><p><blockquote>投资组合的一个显着特点是变化很小。基金会信托最近提交的文件披露了在美国交易所交易的头寸，其中列出了15只股票，其中10只股票十年前就在投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p> The holdings haven’t uniformly jived with the Gateses’ charitable endeavors or priorities, which include global health and, more recently, climate change.</p><p><blockquote>这些资产与盖茨夫妇的慈善事业或优先事项并不一致，其中包括全球健康和最近的气候变化。</blockquote></p><p> Cascade held investments in oil and gas companies until 2019, Gates said in his recent book about climate change. It was long the biggest owner of Signature Aviation Plc, the world’s largest operator of private-jet bases, before joining a consortium that took the company private this year. And it’s the biggest shareholder of Republic Services Inc., which for years has feuded with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union, whose members are employees.</p><p><blockquote>盖茨在他最近关于气候变化的书中表示，Cascade在2019年之前一直持有对石油和天然气公司的投资。在加入今年将该公司私有化的财团之前，它长期以来一直是全球最大的私人飞机基地运营商Signature Aviation Plc的最大所有者。它是Republic Services Inc.的最大股东，该公司多年来一直与国际卡车司机工会兄弟会不和，后者的成员是雇员。</blockquote></p><p> Gates has occasionally made it clear that Larson has broad discretion to make investment decisions. In a March “Ask me anything” event on Reddit, a user asked about his purchases of farmland. His response: “My investment group chose to do this.”</p><p><blockquote>盖茨偶尔会明确表示，拉森拥有做出投资决策的广泛自由裁量权。在Reddit上3月份的“问我任何问题”活动中，一名用户询问了他购买农田的情况。他的回应是：“我的投资团队选择了这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> Two decades ago, Larson put it more bluntly.</p><p><blockquote>二十年前，拉尔森说得更直白。</blockquote></p><p> “When people find out that Cascade has made an investment in something, that’s not Bill Gates,” he said in the Fortune interview. “I wish everyone understood that.”</p><p><blockquote>“当人们发现Cascade投资了某件事时，那就不是比尔·盖茨了，”他在接受《财富》采访时表示。“我希望每个人都能理解这一点。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gates-divorce-casts-harsh-glare-090002545.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gates-divorce-casts-harsh-glare-090002545.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174609211","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- For almost three decades, Michael Larson has quietly shuffled around one of the world’s biggest fortunes with a chief priority: Keep his fabulously wealthy bosses out of the headlines.\nThe conservative bets, the nondescript office, the investment firm’s generic-sounding name; they were all carefully designed to shield Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates from criticism and produce steady, if seemingly unimpressive, returns.\nThe couple’s divorce announcement last month cracked the curated image. Unflattering details spilled out, including a report that Larson had allegedly harassed and bullied some employees.\nOn Monday, a spokesman said that Bill and Melinda Gates Investments -- the 100-person strong team led by Larson that’s overseen their personal fortune and the endowment of their namesake foundation -- changed its name to Cascade Asset Management Co. The moniker closely resembles Cascade Investment, which historically has been the part of BMGI that manages the Gateses’ personal wealth.\nThe rebranding is the latest step in the unfolding story of what will happen to one of the world’s largest fortunes when Gates and French Gates finalize their divorce. Larson was hired by the Microsoft Corp. billionaire in the mid-1990s to oversee that wealth.\nThe sprawling portfolio under his purview, estimated by Bloomberg News to be valued at about $170 billion, has over the years generated returns that beat the broader stock market by about a percentage point, according to financial filings and people familiar with the matter.\nThe record illustrates the priorities of the uppermost strata of the ultrarich, where investment horizons span generations and riskier bets often don’t outweigh the value of a good reputation. Part of Larson’s job was to help Bill Gates uphold his image as a wonky billionaire devoted to fixing the world’s challenges, rather than make bold moves that could draw scrutiny.\n“The price some of these guys are willing to pay to stay out of the news is high,” said Tayyab Mohamed, co-founder of family office recruiting firm Agreus Group.\nThe divorce and recent revelations about Cascade’s workplace culture, reported by the New York Times, raise questions about what’s next for Larson and the fortune he oversees. A spokesman for Cascade said BMGI is changing its name “to allow for the evolving needs of the Gates family and their philanthropic work” and that the group’s investment strategy and organizational structure won’t change.\nFrench Gates, whose name was added to BMGI in 2014, has been in focus after Cascade transferred equity stakes worth more than $3 billion to her, leading some in the industry to speculate she’s in the process of claiming an even larger control of her share of the riches. Their combined wealth stands at more than $140 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.\nLarson, 61, has admitted that he sometimes used harsh language, as alleged in the Times reporting, but denied that he mistreated staff. A Cascade representative has said the matters were examined and didn’t warrant his dismissal. A representative for Gates didn’t respond to a request for comment.\nMohamed said it’s of little surprise that Larson has remained in his role after the allegations, given his decades-long tenure with Gates and the loyalty it has likely engendered.\n“Had Larson not had the professional impact he had, it would be a simple yes, he should resign,” said Mohamed, whose company helps family offices fill leadership positions.\nLarson, often clad in a pink shirt, shies from the limelight and rarely attends conferences for family office professionals. A former bond-fund manager, he won Gates’s loyalty by delivering consistent returns and instilling in employees the notion that their primary focus was to protect their benefactor’s good name, according to people familiar with Cascade, who asked not to be named speaking about the company’s inner workings.\nThe manager had broad leeway from Gates on investment decisions, they both have said. French Gates rarely attended meetings in Cascade’s early days aside from the annual in-person gathering, and when she did she tended to be a passive participant, according to one of the people familiar with the firm.\nShe was unaware of most of the allegations involving Larson “given her lack of ownership of and control over BMGI,” her spokeswoman, Courtney Wade, said in a statement.\nIt’s unclear where French Gates is keeping her money, including the more than $3 billion that has been transferred from Cascade, and whether she’s now setting up a family office of her own. She also runs Pivotal Ventures, an investment and incubation firm founded in 2015 that focuses on gender and racial equality and employs roughly 90 people.\nConservative Mandate\nBeing the investment chief for one of the world’s biggest family fortunes might seem like an enviable job for an investor mulling creative bets. There’s hardly a worry about fundraising, client withdrawals or onerous regulations. But it often instead involves simply keeping wealth steady.\nAside from detracting attention from the Gateses, Larson’s main mandate has been to invest conservatively -- try to maximize returns but don’t lose money, one of the people said.\nThat reflects the typical investment approaches of big family offices and foundations, said Raphael Amit, professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.\n“The No. 1 objective is preservation of capital,” he said, adding that’s why family office portfolios are so diverse, including not just public equities, but also fixed income, commodities and assets such as art.\nIn a Fortune story from two decades ago, Larson explained that much of his strategy boiled down to countering the swings of Microsoft stock. At the time, the portfolios both for the foundation and for the Gateses’ personal money mostly consisted of bonds, with some bets on private equity, commodities, Florida real estate and British hotels.\nThat has shifted. Today Cascade holds about $57 billion in public equities, ranging from farm-equipment maker Deere & Co. to track operator Canadian National Railway Co. to waste management firm Republic Services Inc. -- companies rooted in the physical world of making, moving and selling goods, and cleaning things up.\nCascade also owns around 270,000 acres of land, enough to make it the single biggest owner of U.S. farmland, according to the Land Report. The firm also has been involved in currency and commodities trading, venture capital and the development of a property complex in downtown Tampa.\nThe foundation’s most recent tax returns also shows $804 million of corporate bonds and $5.8 billion of other investments like mortgage-backed securities, bank loans and sovereign debt.\nStable Returns\nCascade doesn’t disclose its overall investment performance, but financial reports from the foundation offer clues. The foundation’s assets under management have returned an average of about 8.6% per year since 2001, according to a person familiar with the matter, beating the S&P 500 Index’s average annual 7.5% gain over the past two decades. That track record is broadly representative of Cascade’s overall returns, another person said.\nCascade’s assets have periodically been boosted by proceeds from the sales of Gates’s Microsoft stock. And Warren Buffett, the founder of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., has periodically given shares in the conglomerate worth billions of dollars to the foundation. Buffett is one of the Gates Foundation’s three board members alongside Gates and French Gates, but has no involvement in investment decisions of the endowment, according to the foundation.\nOne remarkable feature of the portfolio is how little it changes. Of the 15 stocks listed in the foundation trust’s most recent filing, which discloses positions traded on U.S. exchanges, 10 of them were in the portfolio a decade ago.\nThe holdings haven’t uniformly jived with the Gateses’ charitable endeavors or priorities, which include global health and, more recently, climate change.\nCascade held investments in oil and gas companies until 2019, Gates said in his recent book about climate change. It was long the biggest owner of Signature Aviation Plc, the world’s largest operator of private-jet bases, before joining a consortium that took the company private this year. And it’s the biggest shareholder of Republic Services Inc., which for years has feuded with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union, whose members are employees.\nGates has occasionally made it clear that Larson has broad discretion to make investment decisions. In a March “Ask me anything” event on Reddit, a user asked about his purchases of farmland. His response: “My investment group chose to do this.”\nTwo decades ago, Larson put it more bluntly.\n“When people find out that Cascade has made an investment in something, that’s not Bill Gates,” he said in the Fortune interview. “I wish everyone understood that.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162798386,"gmtCreate":1624074726245,"gmtModify":1634011025933,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162798386","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161648018,"gmtCreate":1623925161834,"gmtModify":1634025811673,"author":{"id":"3581947032682882","authorId":"3581947032682882","name":"651552d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581947032682882","authorIdStr":"3581947032682882"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161648018","repostId":"1117313016","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117313016","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623680913,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117313016?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Corsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers<blockquote>海盗船在迷因反弹中飙升；吉姆·克莱默对高层卖家发出警告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117313016","media":"thestreet","summary":"Corsair Gaming  -Get Report shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.\"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program","content":"<p>Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.</p><p><blockquote>海盗船游戏（<b>CRSR</b>)-Get Report股价周一飙升，这家游戏和内容设备制造商似乎将其名字添加到了最受欢迎的meme股票名单中。</blockquote></p><p> Data from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that Corsair is the second most-discussed stock among users, up from a previous rank of 11, over the past 24 hours and more than 860 mentions.</p><p><blockquote>来自theYolosocks.livewebsite的数据显示，在Reddit R/wallstreetbets聊天室中跟踪股票的实时提及情况，海盗船在用户中是第二大最受关注的股票，在过去24小时内排名第11位，超过860次提及。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TheStreet创始人吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)警告说，像海盗船这样基本面稳健的股票如此大幅上涨可能会在这些水平上吸引大规模卖家。</blockquote></p><p> \"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program. \"They have the high-performance equipment you need to dominate in e-sports and I think e-sports are here to stay.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默对CNBC的Squawk on The Street节目表示：“Corsair是一家我非常喜欢的公司，因为它基本上是罗技的升级版，而罗技一直是一只很棒的股票。”“他们拥有在电子竞技中占据主导地位所需的高性能设备，我认为电子竞技将会继续存在。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't know why the 'meme' people have a monopoly on whatever they play with,\" Cramer said.&nbsp;\"No Wall Street analyst could move Corsair this much, so for people who've been waiting for the stock to go to $37 and now it's at $41, those people aren't going to turn buyers. They're sellers.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道为什么‘迷因’人垄断了他们玩的任何东西，”Cramer说，“没有一个华尔街分析师能让Corsair移动这么多，所以对于那些一直在等待该股涨到37美元，现在已经涨到41美元的人来说，这些人不会变成买家。他们是卖家。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The meme people think they're hurting the hedge funds, when in fact they're a tool to the hedge funds,\" Cramer said.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默说：“迷因人认为他们正在伤害对冲基金，而事实上他们是对冲基金的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> Corsair shares were marked 19.3% higher in early trading Monday to change hands at $38.60 each -- after hitting a session high of $42.97 at the opening bell -- in a move that bumps the stock's year-to-date gain to around 12%.</p><p><blockquote>Corsair股价周一早盘上涨19.3%，至每股38.60美元，开盘时触及42.97美元的盘中高点，此举使该股今年迄今的涨幅达到12%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Corsair posted first quarter earnings of $80 million on revenues of $529 million thanks to surging growth in its gaming nd peripherals business, which saw sales rise by 132% when compared to last year.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，Corsair公布第一季度盈利为8000万美元，营收为5.29亿美元，这得益于其游戏和外设业务的激增，销售额比去年增长了132%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Corsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers<blockquote>海盗船在迷因反弹中飙升；吉姆·克莱默对高层卖家发出警告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCorsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers<blockquote>海盗船在迷因反弹中飙升；吉姆·克莱默对高层卖家发出警告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 22:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.</p><p><blockquote>海盗船游戏（<b>CRSR</b>)-Get Report股价周一飙升，这家游戏和内容设备制造商似乎将其名字添加到了最受欢迎的meme股票名单中。</blockquote></p><p> Data from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that Corsair is the second most-discussed stock among users, up from a previous rank of 11, over the past 24 hours and more than 860 mentions.</p><p><blockquote>来自theYolosocks.livewebsite的数据显示，在Reddit R/wallstreetbets聊天室中跟踪股票的实时提及情况，海盗船在用户中是第二大最受关注的股票，在过去24小时内排名第11位，超过860次提及。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TheStreet创始人吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)警告说，像海盗船这样基本面稳健的股票如此大幅上涨可能会在这些水平上吸引大规模卖家。</blockquote></p><p> \"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program. \"They have the high-performance equipment you need to dominate in e-sports and I think e-sports are here to stay.\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默对CNBC的Squawk on The Street节目表示：“Corsair是一家我非常喜欢的公司，因为它基本上是罗技的升级版，而罗技一直是一只很棒的股票。”“他们拥有在电子竞技中占据主导地位所需的高性能设备，我认为电子竞技将会继续存在。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't know why the 'meme' people have a monopoly on whatever they play with,\" Cramer said.&nbsp;\"No Wall Street analyst could move Corsair this much, so for people who've been waiting for the stock to go to $37 and now it's at $41, those people aren't going to turn buyers. They're sellers.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我不知道为什么‘迷因’人垄断了他们玩的任何东西，”Cramer说，“没有一个华尔街分析师能让Corsair移动这么多，所以对于那些一直在等待该股涨到37美元，现在已经涨到41美元的人来说，这些人不会变成买家。他们是卖家。”</blockquote></p><p> \"The meme people think they're hurting the hedge funds, when in fact they're a tool to the hedge funds,\" Cramer said.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默说：“迷因人认为他们正在伤害对冲基金，而事实上他们是对冲基金的工具。”</blockquote></p><p> Corsair shares were marked 19.3% higher in early trading Monday to change hands at $38.60 each -- after hitting a session high of $42.97 at the opening bell -- in a move that bumps the stock's year-to-date gain to around 12%.</p><p><blockquote>Corsair股价周一早盘上涨19.3%，至每股38.60美元，开盘时触及42.97美元的盘中高点，此举使该股今年迄今的涨幅达到12%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Corsair posted first quarter earnings of $80 million on revenues of $529 million thanks to surging growth in its gaming nd peripherals business, which saw sales rise by 132% when compared to last year.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，Corsair公布第一季度盈利为8000万美元，营收为5.29亿美元，这得益于其游戏和外设业务的激增，销售额比去年增长了132%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/corsair-surges-in-latest-meme-rally-jim-cramer-warns-on-sellers\">thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRSR":"Corsair Gaming, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/corsair-surges-in-latest-meme-rally-jim-cramer-warns-on-sellers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117313016","content_text":"Corsair Gaming (CRSR) -Get Report shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.\nData from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that Corsair is the second most-discussed stock among users, up from a previous rank of 11, over the past 24 hours and more than 860 mentions.\nTheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.\n\"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program. \"They have the high-performance equipment you need to dominate in e-sports and I think e-sports are here to stay.\"\n\"I don't know why the 'meme' people have a monopoly on whatever they play with,\" Cramer said. \"No Wall Street analyst could move Corsair this much, so for people who've been waiting for the stock to go to $37 and now it's at $41, those people aren't going to turn buyers. They're sellers.\"\n\"The meme people think they're hurting the hedge funds, when in fact they're a tool to the hedge funds,\" Cramer said.\nCorsair shares were marked 19.3% higher in early trading Monday to change hands at $38.60 each -- after hitting a session high of $42.97 at the opening bell -- in a move that bumps the stock's year-to-date gain to around 12%.\nLast month, Corsair posted first quarter earnings of $80 million on revenues of $529 million thanks to surging growth in its gaming nd peripherals business, which saw sales rise by 132% when compared to last year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}