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2021-08-19

Check out this trading strategy that shorted AMZN!event.algomerchant.com/viki

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2021-08-19

Here’s a good article that summarises what to look out for in terms of market moving events that can trigger a stagflation selldown!https://blog.algomerchant.com/my-market-circulation-of-a-peak-everything-narrative/

Here Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees "Bigger Inflation Surge"<blockquote>滞胀来了：高盛三周内第二次下调GDP预期，认为“通胀飙升幅度更大”</blockquote>

2021-05-08

https://twitter.com/seanfoo5/status/1390684596098846721?s=21Check out my write up on $AMRS!

2021-05-08

$Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc.(KALA)$I think kala lows are in

2021-05-07

Comment pls

Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>

2021-05-07

It is probably the most boring company

Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>

2021-05-07

It is probably the most boring company

Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>

2021-05-06

$SKLZ - investors concerned over plateauing MAU (monthly average users)

2021-05-06

Pls like thanks in advance!

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2021-05-05

$Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc.(KALA)$Ouch

2021-05-05

Pls like and commment!

Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote>

2021-05-04

Nice

Ethereum at $5,000? One financial advisor CEO says it could happen this week<blockquote>以太币5000美元？一位财务顾问首席执行官表示这可能会在本周发生</blockquote>

2021-05-04

Amd??

3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我永远不会出售的3只股票</blockquote>

2021-05-04

Like and comment please!

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2021-05-03

Uranium is super bullish!

2021-05-03

Pls comment and like! Thanks in advance!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-03

Pls comment!

Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-05-03

Stocks heavily reliant on chips will likely suffer selldowns in coming earnings due to shortages:- Unable to meet demand due to supply pressures- lower forward guidances due to ⬆️ uncertainty- delays in rolling out new products (affects forward rev)

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2021-04-30

Watch $IPA

2021-04-30

$Amyris(AMRS)$sell down today hurts!

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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out this trading strategy&nbsp;that shorted AMZN!event.algomerchant.com/viki","listText":"Check out this trading strategy&nbsp;that shorted AMZN!event.algomerchant.com/viki","text":"Check out this trading strategy that shorted AMZN!event.algomerchant.com/viki","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838083037","repostId":"1152703663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838098509,"gmtCreate":1629356483101,"gmtModify":1633685444980,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Here’s a good article that summarises what to look out for in terms of market moving events that can trigger a stagflation selldown!https://blog.algomerchant.com/my-market-circulation-of-a-peak-everything-narrative/","listText":"Here’s a good article that summarises what to look out for in terms of market moving events that can trigger a stagflation selldown!https://blog.algomerchant.com/my-market-circulation-of-a-peak-everything-narrative/","text":"Here’s a good article that summarises what to look out for in terms of market moving events that can trigger a stagflation selldown!https://blog.algomerchant.com/my-market-circulation-of-a-peak-everything-narrative/","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838098509","repostId":"1161694085","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161694085","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629355541,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161694085?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 14:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees \"Bigger Inflation Surge\"<blockquote>滞胀来了：高盛三周内第二次下调GDP预期，认为“通胀飙升幅度更大”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161694085","media":"zerohedge","summary":"It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.\nJust three weeks ago, Goldman S","content":"<p>It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.</p><p><blockquote>它持续的时候很好，但是派对已经结束了。</blockquote></p><p> Just three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut its 2021 second half consumption growth forecast, resulting in 1% downgrade to its GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to +8.5% and +5.0%, respectively, \"as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust\" as the bank had expected. Which is odd considering the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that have entered into the economy. One wonder how many more trillions would be needed for Goldman to be happy.</p><p><blockquote>就在三周前，高盛（Goldman Sachs）——去年是第一家公布大幅高于普遍预期GDP预测的银行——下调了2021年下半年消费增长预测，导致第三季度和第四季度GDP增长预测下调1%至+8.5%和+5.0%，“因为越来越明显的是，美国服务业的复苏不太可能像该行预期的那样强劲”。考虑到数万亿美元的货币和财政刺激已经进入经济，这很奇怪。人们不禁要问，高盛还需要多少万亿美元才能幸福。</blockquote></p><p> But while Goldman's expected 2021 slowdown was manageable,<b>it got far worse in 2022, when the sluggishness is expected to truly hammer the growth rate, which Goldman now expected to shrink to a trend-like 1.5% - 2% by the second half of 2022, a far \"sharper deceleration than consensus expects.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>但尽管高盛预计2021年经济放缓是可控的，<b>2022年情况变得更糟，预计经济低迷将真正打击增长率，高盛目前预计，到2022年下半年，增长率将萎缩至趋势性的1.5%-2%，“减速幅度远高于市场普遍预期”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e05ecd5001da54cf0ba72fe0dfd3d65b\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In retrospect, the bad news was just starting.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，坏消息才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> As frequent readers recall, just yesterday we pointed out that US economic growth \"suddenly collapsed\" as the latest dismal retail sales print showed, validating the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey which saw a collapse in expectations for everything from growth, to profits and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>正如经常阅读的读者回忆的那样，就在昨天，我们指出，正如最新惨淡的零售销售数据所显示的那样，美国经济增长“突然崩溃”，这证实了美国银行基金经理的最新调查，该调查显示，从增长到利润和通胀的所有预期都崩溃了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0535f1d343fd85a5852ce78ffe00ef\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In response, Bank of America's chief economist Michelle Meyer wrotes that \"after adjusting for higher prices (PCE deflator of 4.4% qoq saar), the softening in nominal spending<b>leads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%.</b>\" Plugging that number into the bigger GDP model, and BofA now finds that \"the economy is running at a slower pace in 3Q,\" and<b>currently tracking just 4.5% following the retail sales report,</b>down from the bank's official forecast of 7% qoq saa, which is about to come down significantly.</p><p><blockquote>对此，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer写道，“在对价格上涨（PCE平减指数环比为4.4%）进行调整后，名义支出的疲软<b>导致我们跟踪第三季度实际消费者支出的saar环比仅为1.5%。此前，第二季度实际消费跟踪为12.3%。</b>“将这个数字插入更大的GDP模型，美国银行现在发现“第三季度经济运行速度放缓”，并且<b>目前零售销售报告发布后仅追踪4.5%，</b>低于该行官方预测的环比SAA 7%，该预测即将大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> Just hours later, Goldman strategist Chris Hussey chimed in with a preview of what was coming writing that \"the combination of lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, and given an increasingly likely drag on services consumption from the Delta variant, our economists are will likely revise our second-half growth assumptions even as we still do not expect material economic impact from the Delta variant in the US amidst abundant vaccine supply and relatively permissive COVID policies.\"</p><p><blockquote>仅仅几个小时后，高盛策略师Chris Hussey就对即将发生的事情进行了预览，他写道，“7月份零售额和汽车产量低于预期，考虑到德尔塔变异毒株对服务消费的拖累越来越大，我们的经济学家可能会修改我们对下半年增长的假设，尽管在疫苗供应充足和新冠政策相对宽松的情况下，我们仍然预计美国德尔塔变异毒株不会对经济产生重大影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Well, he was right, and moments ago - for the second time in under a month -<b>Goldman has slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to just 5.5% from 8.5% as of late July (and 9.5% previously),</b>as Goldman's chief economist now warns that \"the impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected.\"</p><p><blockquote>嗯，他是对的，就在刚才——不到一个月内第二次——<b>高盛已将第三季度GDP预测从7月底的8.5%（此前为9.5%）下调至仅5.5%，</b>正如高盛首席经济学家现在警告的那样，“事实证明，德尔塔变异毒株对增长和通胀的影响比我们预期的要大一些。”</blockquote></p><p>   We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.  The bank's revised forecast also trims its full year 2021 GDP forecast to below consensus 6% (vs. 6.4% previously and 6.2% consensus) and leads to 2022 growth of 4.5%, a number which at this rate will soon be slashed to 0 or negative.</p><p><blockquote>我们已将第三季度GDP预测下调至+5.5%，反映出消费者支出和生产受到的打击。八月份餐饮、旅游和其他一些服务支出可能会下降，尽管我们预计下降幅度不大且短暂。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度的库存重建减少。央行修订后的预测还将2021年全年GDP预测下调至6%以下（此前为6.4%，市场普遍预期为6.2%），并导致2022年增长4.5%，按照这个速度，这一数字很快将被削减至0或负数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cac3d7e08c01e3117276cba4e98c1719\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Here are some more details from Goldman behind the sharp cut to GDP, which it blames on - what else - the convenient Delta variant, and not t - say - that US consumers were once again tapped out, and with no more stimmy cash and savings all spent, was instead borrowingliterally<i><b>record</b></i>amounts on their credit cards.</p><p><blockquote>以下是高盛在GDP大幅削减背后提供的更多细节，它将其归咎于——还有什么——便利的德尔塔变异毒株，而不是t-说——美国消费者再次被耗尽，并且不再有刺激的现金和储蓄全部花掉，而是字面上的借贷<i><b>记录</b></i>他们信用卡上的金额。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d88ea371481a13ae37ab8a93ba87bfc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Anyway, here is how Goldman feeds the \"but Delta\" fiction:</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，高盛是如何助长“但是三角洲”的虚构的：</blockquote></p><p> The Delta variant is weighing on both consumer spending and production in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔变异毒株给第三季度的消费者支出和生产带来压力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   On the consumption side, we cut our 2021H2 forecast slightly last month, anticipating that renewed virus spread would delay a full recovery of the office-adjacent economy and the most virus-sensitive services, such as entertainment events. But the decline in retail sales in July and the drop-off in our consumer spending tracker through early August, shown in Exhibit 1, suggest a larger slowdown in spending than we expected.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2130c6999cfd9d7ab6962e752ee316f\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"530\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Forward-looking indicators also point to a further pullback in services spending. OpenTable data show a roughly 7% decline in restaurant reservations since the end of July, travel companies report an increase in cancellations and a modest decline in bookings, and press reports note that some hospitals are again delaying elective surgeries to clear capacity for Covid patients.</p><p><blockquote>在消费方面，我们上个月小幅下调了2021年下半年的预测，预计病毒的重新传播将推迟办公室附近经济和对病毒最敏感的服务（例如娱乐活动）的全面复苏。但如图表1所示，7月份零售额的下降以及截至8月初消费者支出跟踪数据的下降表明支出放缓幅度超出了我们的预期。前瞻性指标还表明服务支出将进一步回落。OpenTable数据显示，自7月底以来，餐厅预订量下降了约7%，旅游公司报告取消预订量增加，预订量略有下降，新闻报道指出，一些医院再次推迟择期手术，以清理新冠患者的容量。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman also decided to blame supply-chain bottlenecks - the same bottlenecks that were patently obvious last month yet when countless penguins, like Goldman, expected them to be \"transitory.\" Well, they aren't looking so transitory now, eh?</p><p><blockquote>高盛还决定将责任归咎于供应链瓶颈——同样的瓶颈在上个月显而易见，当时无数像高盛一样的企鹅预计它们只是“暂时的”。嗯，他们现在看起来不那么短暂了，嗯？</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li></li>  <li>On the production side, the Delta variant is prolonging supply chain disruptions and delaying a full rebound of factory activity. Production holdups in Q2 led to a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown and widening of the trade deficit as US producers struggled to meet strong consumer demand. This accounted for much of the eventual disappointment on Q2 GDP growth, but a rebound in production and the rebuild of depleted inventories—especially at automakers—appeared likely to boost Q3 growth.</li>  <li><b>Unfortunately, that expectation has proven premature</b>. Earlier this month we highlighted the risk of global supply chain spillovers from the impact of the Delta variant in the Asia Pacific region, where new Covid restrictions are much more stringent than in the US. Since then more setbacks have emerged, including problems for semiconductor producers in Malaysia and a major port closure in China.</li>  <li>Our autos analysts note that automakers now expect that the disruption from the semiconductor supply shortage to global auto production will be nearly as large in Q3 as in Q2 and that supply will not increase until late Q3 or Q4. As Exhibit 2 shows, initial US auto production schedules for Q3 have proven much too optimistic.<b>We have therefore cut our Q3 inventory accumulation forecast from $82bn to $32bn, though the turnaround from the sharp inventory drawdown in Q2 is still worth 4pp for Q3 GDP growth.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839e8bf2da50d0349da9d5254542ec1d\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">If that was the extent of it, we would probably not even bother with this note: after all it's just another example of Goldman just being wrong and failing to actually observe what is going on in the economy (something we described in detail in \"\"A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy\": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown\").</p><p><blockquote><ul><li></li><li>在生产方面，德尔塔变异毒株正在延长供应链中断，并推迟工厂活动的全面反弹。由于美国生产商难以满足强劲的消费者需求，第二季度生产停滞导致库存减少幅度超出预期，贸易逆差扩大。这在很大程度上解释了第二季度GDP增长最终令人失望的原因，但生产反弹和耗尽库存的重建（尤其是汽车制造商）似乎可能会提振第三季度的增长。</li><li><b>不幸的是，事实证明这种期望为时过早</b>本月早些时候，我们强调了亚太地区德尔塔变异毒株影响对全球供应链溢出的风险，该地区新的Covid限制比美国严格得多。自那以来，出现了更多挫折，包括马来西亚半导体生产商的问题和中国主要港口的关闭。</li><li>我们的汽车分析师指出，汽车制造商现在预计，半导体供应短缺对全球汽车生产的干扰在第三季度几乎与第二季度一样大，而且供应要到第三季度末或第四季度才会增加。如图表2所示，事实证明，美国第三季度最初的汽车生产计划过于乐观。<b>因此，我们将第三季度库存积累预测从820亿美元下调至320亿美元，尽管第二季度库存大幅减少的好转仍对第三季度GDP增长产生4个百分点的影响。</b></li></ul>如果是这样的话，我们可能甚至不会为这篇文章费心：毕竟，这只是高盛错误的另一个例子，未能实际观察经济中正在发生的事情（我们在“经济的突然负面变化：消费者支出下滑，因为大多数人现在预计会出现新的放缓”）。</blockquote></p><p> But sadly it gets worse. So much so that Goldman's note is not so much about the bank's latest me culpa on its GDP forecast (it will be slashed many more times in the coming months, that much we can guarantee) but that it was the first overt admission from Goldman that the US is heading for stagflation, because while Goldman is busy cutting its GDP forecast, it was also hiking its surging inflation forecast... and to those who don't know what stagflation is, now is a good time to look it up. Here again is Kostin:</p><p><blockquote>但可悲的是，情况变得更糟了。以至于高盛的报告与其说是关于该行对其GDP预测的最新指责（我们可以保证，未来几个月将会下调更多次），不如说是高盛首次公开承认美国正在走向滞胀，因为在高盛忙于下调GDP预测的同时，它也上调了飙升的通胀预测...对于那些不知道滞胀是什么的人来说，现在是查找滞胀的好时机。科斯汀又来了：</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Bigger Inflation Surge in 2021:</b>The impact of the Delta variant on supply chains is also likely to push prices even higher in the short run on some of the durable goods categories that have contributed to the inflation surge this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>2021年通胀将大幅飙升：</b>德尔塔变异毒株对供应链的影响也可能在短期内推高一些导致今年通胀飙升的耐用品类别的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   The left side of Exhibit 4 shows that, as a result of ongoing auto production problems, new car inventories are likely to fall to around 1 million, down more than 70% from pre-pandemic levels. This has led to much larger increases in new car prices in recent months than seen in many years. Our auto sector analysts expect further price increases over the next few months and then a partial return of promotional pricing at year-end as production normalizes, and we have revised our forecast accordingly.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b227704093b648b57adb0db20a0e245\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"480\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Other durable goods that are downstream from the semiconductor shortage—such as consumer electronics and household appliances, shown in Exhibit 5—have also seen much higher than usual inflation this year, reflecting both supply constraints and strong demand. Our sector analysts expect that many consumer electronics companies will announce price increases in the upcoming earnings season and that most major household appliance producers will also raise prices significantly further this year. We have therefore bumped up our forecasts for these categories too.</p><p><blockquote>图表4的左侧显示，由于持续的汽车生产问题，新车库存可能会降至100万辆左右，比大流行前的水平下降70%以上。这导致近几个月新车价格涨幅比多年来大得多。我们的汽车行业分析师预计，未来几个月价格将进一步上涨，然后随着生产正常化，促销定价将在年底部分回归，我们相应地修改了预测。半导体短缺下游的其他耐用品——如图表5所示的消费电子产品和家用电器——今年的通胀率也远高于往常，反映出供应限制和需求强劲。我们的行业分析师预计，许多消费电子公司将在即将到来的财报季宣布提价，大多数主要家用电器生产商今年也将进一步大幅提价。因此，我们也提高了对这些类别的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8455e62dd9048e1cb663f20fbb4bde\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But while one can, in theory, get away without spending on appliances, cars and video products, one has to eat. And sadly here the inflation is about to surge even higher.</p><p><blockquote>但是，虽然理论上一个人可以不花钱购买电器、汽车和视频产品，但他必须吃饭。可悲的是，这里的通货膨胀率将会飙升得更高。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>We also raised our short-term expectations for food services inflation.</b>In June we noted that higher wage growth for low-paid workers should flow through to higher consumer prices in sectors such as restaurants that rely heavily on low-paid labor.  <b>That has happened to an even greater extent than we anticipated in the last two CPI prints, and there is probably still a couple months of upward pressure left in the pipeline before the end of federal unemployment benefits cools wage and price pressures.</b>  The punchline: \"<b><u>We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to reach 3.75% at the end of 2021.</u></b><b>\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们还上调了对食品服务通胀的短期预期。</b>6月份，我们指出，低薪工人工资的更高增长应该会导致餐馆等严重依赖低薪劳动力的行业的消费者价格上涨。<b>这种情况的发生程度比我们在过去两次CPI数据中预期的还要大，在联邦失业救济金的结束冷却工资和价格压力之前，可能还有几个月的上行压力。</b>笑点：“<b><u>我们现在预计2021年底核心PCE同比通胀率将达到3.75%。</u></b><b>\"</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d5d6cea47a0e228a697ec6728db413\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"776\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">So putting it all together:<b>a drop in GDP + \"a bigger surge in inflation\" = stagflation.</b>We said as much in May \"This Is All About Stagflation... The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning\" and we are surprised it only took Goldman 3 months to catch up.</p><p><blockquote>所以把所有这些放在一起：<b>GDP下降+“通胀更大飙升”=滞胀。</b>我们在5月份也说过“这一切都与滞胀有关……美国正在进入第四次转折的早期阶段”，我们很惊讶高盛只用了3个月就赶上了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees \"Bigger Inflation Surge\"<blockquote>滞胀来了：高盛三周内第二次下调GDP预期，认为“通胀飙升幅度更大”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees \"Bigger Inflation Surge\"<blockquote>滞胀来了：高盛三周内第二次下调GDP预期，认为“通胀飙升幅度更大”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 14:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.</p><p><blockquote>它持续的时候很好，但是派对已经结束了。</blockquote></p><p> Just three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut its 2021 second half consumption growth forecast, resulting in 1% downgrade to its GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to +8.5% and +5.0%, respectively, \"as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust\" as the bank had expected. Which is odd considering the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that have entered into the economy. One wonder how many more trillions would be needed for Goldman to be happy.</p><p><blockquote>就在三周前，高盛（Goldman Sachs）——去年是第一家公布大幅高于普遍预期GDP预测的银行——下调了2021年下半年消费增长预测，导致第三季度和第四季度GDP增长预测下调1%至+8.5%和+5.0%，“因为越来越明显的是，美国服务业的复苏不太可能像该行预期的那样强劲”。考虑到数万亿美元的货币和财政刺激已经进入经济，这很奇怪。人们不禁要问，高盛还需要多少万亿美元才能幸福。</blockquote></p><p> But while Goldman's expected 2021 slowdown was manageable,<b>it got far worse in 2022, when the sluggishness is expected to truly hammer the growth rate, which Goldman now expected to shrink to a trend-like 1.5% - 2% by the second half of 2022, a far \"sharper deceleration than consensus expects.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>但尽管高盛预计2021年经济放缓是可控的，<b>2022年情况变得更糟，预计经济低迷将真正打击增长率，高盛目前预计，到2022年下半年，增长率将萎缩至趋势性的1.5%-2%，“减速幅度远高于市场普遍预期”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e05ecd5001da54cf0ba72fe0dfd3d65b\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In retrospect, the bad news was just starting.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，坏消息才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> As frequent readers recall, just yesterday we pointed out that US economic growth \"suddenly collapsed\" as the latest dismal retail sales print showed, validating the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey which saw a collapse in expectations for everything from growth, to profits and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>正如经常阅读的读者回忆的那样，就在昨天，我们指出，正如最新惨淡的零售销售数据所显示的那样，美国经济增长“突然崩溃”，这证实了美国银行基金经理的最新调查，该调查显示，从增长到利润和通胀的所有预期都崩溃了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0535f1d343fd85a5852ce78ffe00ef\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In response, Bank of America's chief economist Michelle Meyer wrotes that \"after adjusting for higher prices (PCE deflator of 4.4% qoq saar), the softening in nominal spending<b>leads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%.</b>\" Plugging that number into the bigger GDP model, and BofA now finds that \"the economy is running at a slower pace in 3Q,\" and<b>currently tracking just 4.5% following the retail sales report,</b>down from the bank's official forecast of 7% qoq saa, which is about to come down significantly.</p><p><blockquote>对此，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer写道，“在对价格上涨（PCE平减指数环比为4.4%）进行调整后，名义支出的疲软<b>导致我们跟踪第三季度实际消费者支出的saar环比仅为1.5%。此前，第二季度实际消费跟踪为12.3%。</b>“将这个数字插入更大的GDP模型，美国银行现在发现“第三季度经济运行速度放缓”，并且<b>目前零售销售报告发布后仅追踪4.5%，</b>低于该行官方预测的环比SAA 7%，该预测即将大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> Just hours later, Goldman strategist Chris Hussey chimed in with a preview of what was coming writing that \"the combination of lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, and given an increasingly likely drag on services consumption from the Delta variant, our economists are will likely revise our second-half growth assumptions even as we still do not expect material economic impact from the Delta variant in the US amidst abundant vaccine supply and relatively permissive COVID policies.\"</p><p><blockquote>仅仅几个小时后，高盛策略师Chris Hussey就对即将发生的事情进行了预览，他写道，“7月份零售额和汽车产量低于预期，考虑到德尔塔变异毒株对服务消费的拖累越来越大，我们的经济学家可能会修改我们对下半年增长的假设，尽管在疫苗供应充足和新冠政策相对宽松的情况下，我们仍然预计美国德尔塔变异毒株不会对经济产生重大影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Well, he was right, and moments ago - for the second time in under a month -<b>Goldman has slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to just 5.5% from 8.5% as of late July (and 9.5% previously),</b>as Goldman's chief economist now warns that \"the impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected.\"</p><p><blockquote>嗯，他是对的，就在刚才——不到一个月内第二次——<b>高盛已将第三季度GDP预测从7月底的8.5%（此前为9.5%）下调至仅5.5%，</b>正如高盛首席经济学家现在警告的那样，“事实证明，德尔塔变异毒株对增长和通胀的影响比我们预期的要大一些。”</blockquote></p><p>   We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.  The bank's revised forecast also trims its full year 2021 GDP forecast to below consensus 6% (vs. 6.4% previously and 6.2% consensus) and leads to 2022 growth of 4.5%, a number which at this rate will soon be slashed to 0 or negative.</p><p><blockquote>我们已将第三季度GDP预测下调至+5.5%，反映出消费者支出和生产受到的打击。八月份餐饮、旅游和其他一些服务支出可能会下降，尽管我们预计下降幅度不大且短暂。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度的库存重建减少。央行修订后的预测还将2021年全年GDP预测下调至6%以下（此前为6.4%，市场普遍预期为6.2%），并导致2022年增长4.5%，按照这个速度，这一数字很快将被削减至0或负数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cac3d7e08c01e3117276cba4e98c1719\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Here are some more details from Goldman behind the sharp cut to GDP, which it blames on - what else - the convenient Delta variant, and not t - say - that US consumers were once again tapped out, and with no more stimmy cash and savings all spent, was instead borrowingliterally<i><b>record</b></i>amounts on their credit cards.</p><p><blockquote>以下是高盛在GDP大幅削减背后提供的更多细节，它将其归咎于——还有什么——便利的德尔塔变异毒株，而不是t-说——美国消费者再次被耗尽，并且不再有刺激的现金和储蓄全部花掉，而是字面上的借贷<i><b>记录</b></i>他们信用卡上的金额。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d88ea371481a13ae37ab8a93ba87bfc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Anyway, here is how Goldman feeds the \"but Delta\" fiction:</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，高盛是如何助长“但是三角洲”的虚构的：</blockquote></p><p> The Delta variant is weighing on both consumer spending and production in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔变异毒株给第三季度的消费者支出和生产带来压力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   On the consumption side, we cut our 2021H2 forecast slightly last month, anticipating that renewed virus spread would delay a full recovery of the office-adjacent economy and the most virus-sensitive services, such as entertainment events. But the decline in retail sales in July and the drop-off in our consumer spending tracker through early August, shown in Exhibit 1, suggest a larger slowdown in spending than we expected.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2130c6999cfd9d7ab6962e752ee316f\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"530\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Forward-looking indicators also point to a further pullback in services spending. OpenTable data show a roughly 7% decline in restaurant reservations since the end of July, travel companies report an increase in cancellations and a modest decline in bookings, and press reports note that some hospitals are again delaying elective surgeries to clear capacity for Covid patients.</p><p><blockquote>在消费方面，我们上个月小幅下调了2021年下半年的预测，预计病毒的重新传播将推迟办公室附近经济和对病毒最敏感的服务（例如娱乐活动）的全面复苏。但如图表1所示，7月份零售额的下降以及截至8月初消费者支出跟踪数据的下降表明支出放缓幅度超出了我们的预期。前瞻性指标还表明服务支出将进一步回落。OpenTable数据显示，自7月底以来，餐厅预订量下降了约7%，旅游公司报告取消预订量增加，预订量略有下降，新闻报道指出，一些医院再次推迟择期手术，以清理新冠患者的容量。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman also decided to blame supply-chain bottlenecks - the same bottlenecks that were patently obvious last month yet when countless penguins, like Goldman, expected them to be \"transitory.\" Well, they aren't looking so transitory now, eh?</p><p><blockquote>高盛还决定将责任归咎于供应链瓶颈——同样的瓶颈在上个月显而易见，当时无数像高盛一样的企鹅预计它们只是“暂时的”。嗯，他们现在看起来不那么短暂了，嗯？</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li></li>  <li>On the production side, the Delta variant is prolonging supply chain disruptions and delaying a full rebound of factory activity. Production holdups in Q2 led to a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown and widening of the trade deficit as US producers struggled to meet strong consumer demand. This accounted for much of the eventual disappointment on Q2 GDP growth, but a rebound in production and the rebuild of depleted inventories—especially at automakers—appeared likely to boost Q3 growth.</li>  <li><b>Unfortunately, that expectation has proven premature</b>. Earlier this month we highlighted the risk of global supply chain spillovers from the impact of the Delta variant in the Asia Pacific region, where new Covid restrictions are much more stringent than in the US. Since then more setbacks have emerged, including problems for semiconductor producers in Malaysia and a major port closure in China.</li>  <li>Our autos analysts note that automakers now expect that the disruption from the semiconductor supply shortage to global auto production will be nearly as large in Q3 as in Q2 and that supply will not increase until late Q3 or Q4. As Exhibit 2 shows, initial US auto production schedules for Q3 have proven much too optimistic.<b>We have therefore cut our Q3 inventory accumulation forecast from $82bn to $32bn, though the turnaround from the sharp inventory drawdown in Q2 is still worth 4pp for Q3 GDP growth.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839e8bf2da50d0349da9d5254542ec1d\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">If that was the extent of it, we would probably not even bother with this note: after all it's just another example of Goldman just being wrong and failing to actually observe what is going on in the economy (something we described in detail in \"\"A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy\": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown\").</p><p><blockquote><ul><li></li><li>在生产方面，德尔塔变异毒株正在延长供应链中断，并推迟工厂活动的全面反弹。由于美国生产商难以满足强劲的消费者需求，第二季度生产停滞导致库存减少幅度超出预期，贸易逆差扩大。这在很大程度上解释了第二季度GDP增长最终令人失望的原因，但生产反弹和耗尽库存的重建（尤其是汽车制造商）似乎可能会提振第三季度的增长。</li><li><b>不幸的是，事实证明这种期望为时过早</b>本月早些时候，我们强调了亚太地区德尔塔变异毒株影响对全球供应链溢出的风险，该地区新的Covid限制比美国严格得多。自那以来，出现了更多挫折，包括马来西亚半导体生产商的问题和中国主要港口的关闭。</li><li>我们的汽车分析师指出，汽车制造商现在预计，半导体供应短缺对全球汽车生产的干扰在第三季度几乎与第二季度一样大，而且供应要到第三季度末或第四季度才会增加。如图表2所示，事实证明，美国第三季度最初的汽车生产计划过于乐观。<b>因此，我们将第三季度库存积累预测从820亿美元下调至320亿美元，尽管第二季度库存大幅减少的好转仍对第三季度GDP增长产生4个百分点的影响。</b></li></ul>如果是这样的话，我们可能甚至不会为这篇文章费心：毕竟，这只是高盛错误的另一个例子，未能实际观察经济中正在发生的事情（我们在“经济的突然负面变化：消费者支出下滑，因为大多数人现在预计会出现新的放缓”）。</blockquote></p><p> But sadly it gets worse. So much so that Goldman's note is not so much about the bank's latest me culpa on its GDP forecast (it will be slashed many more times in the coming months, that much we can guarantee) but that it was the first overt admission from Goldman that the US is heading for stagflation, because while Goldman is busy cutting its GDP forecast, it was also hiking its surging inflation forecast... and to those who don't know what stagflation is, now is a good time to look it up. Here again is Kostin:</p><p><blockquote>但可悲的是，情况变得更糟了。以至于高盛的报告与其说是关于该行对其GDP预测的最新指责（我们可以保证，未来几个月将会下调更多次），不如说是高盛首次公开承认美国正在走向滞胀，因为在高盛忙于下调GDP预测的同时，它也上调了飙升的通胀预测...对于那些不知道滞胀是什么的人来说，现在是查找滞胀的好时机。科斯汀又来了：</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Bigger Inflation Surge in 2021:</b>The impact of the Delta variant on supply chains is also likely to push prices even higher in the short run on some of the durable goods categories that have contributed to the inflation surge this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>2021年通胀将大幅飙升：</b>德尔塔变异毒株对供应链的影响也可能在短期内推高一些导致今年通胀飙升的耐用品类别的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   The left side of Exhibit 4 shows that, as a result of ongoing auto production problems, new car inventories are likely to fall to around 1 million, down more than 70% from pre-pandemic levels. This has led to much larger increases in new car prices in recent months than seen in many years. Our auto sector analysts expect further price increases over the next few months and then a partial return of promotional pricing at year-end as production normalizes, and we have revised our forecast accordingly.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b227704093b648b57adb0db20a0e245\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"480\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Other durable goods that are downstream from the semiconductor shortage—such as consumer electronics and household appliances, shown in Exhibit 5—have also seen much higher than usual inflation this year, reflecting both supply constraints and strong demand. Our sector analysts expect that many consumer electronics companies will announce price increases in the upcoming earnings season and that most major household appliance producers will also raise prices significantly further this year. We have therefore bumped up our forecasts for these categories too.</p><p><blockquote>图表4的左侧显示，由于持续的汽车生产问题，新车库存可能会降至100万辆左右，比大流行前的水平下降70%以上。这导致近几个月新车价格涨幅比多年来大得多。我们的汽车行业分析师预计，未来几个月价格将进一步上涨，然后随着生产正常化，促销定价将在年底部分回归，我们相应地修改了预测。半导体短缺下游的其他耐用品——如图表5所示的消费电子产品和家用电器——今年的通胀率也远高于往常，反映出供应限制和需求强劲。我们的行业分析师预计，许多消费电子公司将在即将到来的财报季宣布提价，大多数主要家用电器生产商今年也将进一步大幅提价。因此，我们也提高了对这些类别的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8455e62dd9048e1cb663f20fbb4bde\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But while one can, in theory, get away without spending on appliances, cars and video products, one has to eat. And sadly here the inflation is about to surge even higher.</p><p><blockquote>但是，虽然理论上一个人可以不花钱购买电器、汽车和视频产品，但他必须吃饭。可悲的是，这里的通货膨胀率将会飙升得更高。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>We also raised our short-term expectations for food services inflation.</b>In June we noted that higher wage growth for low-paid workers should flow through to higher consumer prices in sectors such as restaurants that rely heavily on low-paid labor.  <b>That has happened to an even greater extent than we anticipated in the last two CPI prints, and there is probably still a couple months of upward pressure left in the pipeline before the end of federal unemployment benefits cools wage and price pressures.</b>  The punchline: \"<b><u>We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to reach 3.75% at the end of 2021.</u></b><b>\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们还上调了对食品服务通胀的短期预期。</b>6月份，我们指出，低薪工人工资的更高增长应该会导致餐馆等严重依赖低薪劳动力的行业的消费者价格上涨。<b>这种情况的发生程度比我们在过去两次CPI数据中预期的还要大，在联邦失业救济金的结束冷却工资和价格压力之前，可能还有几个月的上行压力。</b>笑点：“<b><u>我们现在预计2021年底核心PCE同比通胀率将达到3.75%。</u></b><b>\"</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d5d6cea47a0e228a697ec6728db413\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"776\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">So putting it all together:<b>a drop in GDP + \"a bigger surge in inflation\" = stagflation.</b>We said as much in May \"This Is All About Stagflation... The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning\" and we are surprised it only took Goldman 3 months to catch up.</p><p><blockquote>所以把所有这些放在一起：<b>GDP下降+“通胀更大飙升”=滞胀。</b>我们在5月份也说过“这一切都与滞胀有关……美国正在进入第四次转折的早期阶段”，我们很惊讶高盛只用了3个月就赶上了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-stagflation-goldman-slashes-gdp-estimate-second-time-3-weeks-sees-bigger\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-stagflation-goldman-slashes-gdp-estimate-second-time-3-weeks-sees-bigger","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161694085","content_text":"It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.\nJust three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut its 2021 second half consumption growth forecast, resulting in 1% downgrade to its GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to +8.5% and +5.0%, respectively, \"as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust\" as the bank had expected. Which is odd considering the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that have entered into the economy. One wonder how many more trillions would be needed for Goldman to be happy.\nBut while Goldman's expected 2021 slowdown was manageable,it got far worse in 2022, when the sluggishness is expected to truly hammer the growth rate, which Goldman now expected to shrink to a trend-like 1.5% - 2% by the second half of 2022, a far \"sharper deceleration than consensus expects.\"\nIn retrospect, the bad news was just starting.\nAs frequent readers recall, just yesterday we pointed out that US economic growth \"suddenly collapsed\" as the latest dismal retail sales print showed, validating the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey which saw a collapse in expectations for everything from growth, to profits and inflation.\nIn response, Bank of America's chief economist Michelle Meyer wrotes that \"after adjusting for higher prices (PCE deflator of 4.4% qoq saar), the softening in nominal spendingleads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%.\" Plugging that number into the bigger GDP model, and BofA now finds that \"the economy is running at a slower pace in 3Q,\" andcurrently tracking just 4.5% following the retail sales report,down from the bank's official forecast of 7% qoq saa, which is about to come down significantly.\nJust hours later, Goldman strategist Chris Hussey chimed in with a preview of what was coming writing that \"the combination of lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, and given an increasingly likely drag on services consumption from the Delta variant, our economists are will likely revise our second-half growth assumptions even as we still do not expect material economic impact from the Delta variant in the US amidst abundant vaccine supply and relatively permissive COVID policies.\"\nWell, he was right, and moments ago - for the second time in under a month -Goldman has slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to just 5.5% from 8.5% as of late July (and 9.5% previously),as Goldman's chief economist now warns that \"the impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected.\"\n\n We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.\n\nThe bank's revised forecast also trims its full year 2021 GDP forecast to below consensus 6% (vs. 6.4% previously and 6.2% consensus) and leads to 2022 growth of 4.5%, a number which at this rate will soon be slashed to 0 or negative.\nHere are some more details from Goldman behind the sharp cut to GDP, which it blames on - what else - the convenient Delta variant, and not t - say - that US consumers were once again tapped out, and with no more stimmy cash and savings all spent, was instead borrowingliterallyrecordamounts on their credit cards.\nAnyway, here is how Goldman feeds the \"but Delta\" fiction:\nThe Delta variant is weighing on both consumer spending and production in Q3.\n\n On the consumption side, we cut our 2021H2 forecast slightly last month, anticipating that renewed virus spread would delay a full recovery of the office-adjacent economy and the most virus-sensitive services, such as entertainment events. But the decline in retail sales in July and the drop-off in our consumer spending tracker through early August, shown in Exhibit 1, suggest a larger slowdown in spending than we expected.\n\nForward-looking indicators also point to a further pullback in services spending. OpenTable data show a roughly 7% decline in restaurant reservations since the end of July, travel companies report an increase in cancellations and a modest decline in bookings, and press reports note that some hospitals are again delaying elective surgeries to clear capacity for Covid patients.\nGoldman also decided to blame supply-chain bottlenecks - the same bottlenecks that were patently obvious last month yet when countless penguins, like Goldman, expected them to be \"transitory.\" Well, they aren't looking so transitory now, eh?\n\n\nOn the production side, the Delta variant is prolonging supply chain disruptions and delaying a full rebound of factory activity. Production holdups in Q2 led to a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown and widening of the trade deficit as US producers struggled to meet strong consumer demand. This accounted for much of the eventual disappointment on Q2 GDP growth, but a rebound in production and the rebuild of depleted inventories—especially at automakers—appeared likely to boost Q3 growth.\nUnfortunately, that expectation has proven premature. Earlier this month we highlighted the risk of global supply chain spillovers from the impact of the Delta variant in the Asia Pacific region, where new Covid restrictions are much more stringent than in the US. Since then more setbacks have emerged, including problems for semiconductor producers in Malaysia and a major port closure in China.\nOur autos analysts note that automakers now expect that the disruption from the semiconductor supply shortage to global auto production will be nearly as large in Q3 as in Q2 and that supply will not increase until late Q3 or Q4. As Exhibit 2 shows, initial US auto production schedules for Q3 have proven much too optimistic.We have therefore cut our Q3 inventory accumulation forecast from $82bn to $32bn, though the turnaround from the sharp inventory drawdown in Q2 is still worth 4pp for Q3 GDP growth.\n\nIf that was the extent of it, we would probably not even bother with this note: after all it's just another example of Goldman just being wrong and failing to actually observe what is going on in the economy (something we described in detail in \"\"A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy\": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown\").\nBut sadly it gets worse. So much so that Goldman's note is not so much about the bank's latest me culpa on its GDP forecast (it will be slashed many more times in the coming months, that much we can guarantee) but that it was the first overt admission from Goldman that the US is heading for stagflation, because while Goldman is busy cutting its GDP forecast, it was also hiking its surging inflation forecast... and to those who don't know what stagflation is, now is a good time to look it up. Here again is Kostin:\nA Bigger Inflation Surge in 2021:The impact of the Delta variant on supply chains is also likely to push prices even higher in the short run on some of the durable goods categories that have contributed to the inflation surge this year.\n\n The left side of Exhibit 4 shows that, as a result of ongoing auto production problems, new car inventories are likely to fall to around 1 million, down more than 70% from pre-pandemic levels. This has led to much larger increases in new car prices in recent months than seen in many years. Our auto sector analysts expect further price increases over the next few months and then a partial return of promotional pricing at year-end as production normalizes, and we have revised our forecast accordingly.\n\nOther durable goods that are downstream from the semiconductor shortage—such as consumer electronics and household appliances, shown in Exhibit 5—have also seen much higher than usual inflation this year, reflecting both supply constraints and strong demand. Our sector analysts expect that many consumer electronics companies will announce price increases in the upcoming earnings season and that most major household appliance producers will also raise prices significantly further this year. We have therefore bumped up our forecasts for these categories too.\nBut while one can, in theory, get away without spending on appliances, cars and video products, one has to eat. And sadly here the inflation is about to surge even higher.\n\nWe also raised our short-term expectations for food services inflation.In June we noted that higher wage growth for low-paid workers should flow through to higher consumer prices in sectors such as restaurants that rely heavily on low-paid labor.\n That has happened to an even greater extent than we anticipated in the last two CPI prints, and there is probably still a couple months of upward pressure left in the pipeline before the end of federal unemployment benefits cools wage and price pressures.\n\nThe punchline: \"We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to reach 3.75% at the end of 2021.\"\nSo putting it all together:a drop in GDP + \"a bigger surge in inflation\" = stagflation.We said as much in May \"This Is All About Stagflation... The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning\" and we are surprised it only took Goldman 3 months to catch up.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107090020,"gmtCreate":1620431701960,"gmtModify":1634198886735,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"https://twitter.com/seanfoo5/status/1390684596098846721?s=21Check out my write up on $AMRS!","listText":"https://twitter.com/seanfoo5/status/1390684596098846721?s=21Check out my write up on $AMRS!","text":"https://twitter.com/seanfoo5/status/1390684596098846721?s=21Check out my write up on $AMRS!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374facc6f5929ccb3b505b00b9d4707a","width":"750","height":"1797"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107090020","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107003829,"gmtCreate":1620431262461,"gmtModify":1634198892831,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KALA\">$Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc.(KALA)$</a>I think kala lows are in","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KALA\">$Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc.(KALA)$</a>I think kala lows are in","text":"$Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc.(KALA)$I think kala lows are in","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb0f51c3beb69d3211a65b3b6897d95","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107003829","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104206571,"gmtCreate":1620391144593,"gmtModify":1634205586346,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment pls","listText":"Comment pls","text":"Comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104206571","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157328258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104208431,"gmtCreate":1620391092723,"gmtModify":1634205586808,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It is probably the most boring company&nbsp;","listText":"It is probably the most boring company&nbsp;","text":"It is probably the most boring company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104208431","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157328258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104208637,"gmtCreate":1620391078929,"gmtModify":1634205587046,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It is probably the most boring company&nbsp;","listText":"It is probably the most boring company&nbsp;","text":"It is probably the most boring company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104208637","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157328258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105309100,"gmtCreate":1620267077300,"gmtModify":1634206511206,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$SKLZ - investors concerned over plateauing MAU (monthly average users)","listText":"$SKLZ - investors concerned over plateauing MAU (monthly average users)","text":"$SKLZ - investors concerned over plateauing MAU (monthly average users)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85d2d2d8b52e598aa7b64a5fe8ac8eef","width":"750","height":"1857"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105309100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105974397,"gmtCreate":1620266936219,"gmtModify":1634206513774,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like thanks in advance!","listText":"Pls like thanks in advance!","text":"Pls like thanks in advance!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105974397","repostId":"2133528417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102274307,"gmtCreate":1620221905409,"gmtModify":1634206884910,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KALA\">$Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc.(KALA)$</a>Ouch","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KALA\">$Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc.(KALA)$</a>Ouch","text":"$Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc.(KALA)$Ouch","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43dd07cc30f38a9dbc146cabb819fbcd","width":"750","height":"1224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102274307","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102275144,"gmtCreate":1620221847988,"gmtModify":1634206885479,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and commment!","listText":"Pls like and commment!","text":"Pls like and commment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102275144","repostId":"1115203133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115203133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620178775,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115203133?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-05 09:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115203133","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"Every dog has its day…but a whole year?Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image ","content":"<p>Every dog has its day…but a whole year?</p><p><blockquote>每只狗都有它的一天…但是一整年呢？</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，狗狗币（与柴犬图像相关的模因加密货币）一直是近年来加密货币最好的一年，今年迄今的涨幅超过11,000%，并跻身前10名今年最有价值的数字资产。</blockquote></p><p>At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，根据上次检查，dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%的易手价格为54美分，过去24小时内上涨了23%以上，2021年迄今为止上涨了约11,210%。</blockquote></p><p>That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛物线式上涨既引起了掌声，也引起了担忧，因为其支持者的目标是将这枚模仿硬币的价值推至接近1美元，批评者警告说，该资产具有资产泡沫的所有特征，资产泡沫必然会破裂并留下大屠杀。</blockquote></p><p>Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7201d3eb982c0d5d636bf8ff4a1ca7\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,”&nbsp;on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>只是，不要告诉那些为加密货币欢呼的人，否则就有可能遇到这种常见的重复：“享受贫穷。”那么，为什么狗狗币（发音为“dōj-coin”）会遭受如此巨大的损失，以至于超过了被认为是数字资产和区块链时代更严肃代表的加密货币？以下是一些原因：</blockquote></p><p>Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’</p><p><blockquote>其最大的助推器将是客座主持人“SNL”</blockquote></p><p>Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers&nbsp;for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司和SpaceX的首席执行官Elon Musk将于本周末主持“周六夜现场”，这已经为这位技术专家赢得了欢呼和嘲笑。他已经成为今年dogecoin最著名和最直言不讳的拥护者之一，一些人猜测他可以做些什么来推广doge。</blockquote></p><p>Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在《周六夜现场》演出前的一条推文中确实称自己为“狗爸爸”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a1a1602240507ad985c5efcb2571f5\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Brokerages trade dogecoin</p><p><blockquote>券商交易狗狗币</blockquote></p><p>A number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一些新的场所已经宣布，他们将在最近几天和几周内在他们的交易所交易狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform&nbsp;eToro also made dogecoin&nbsp;available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所Geminion周二宣布支持该硬币的交易和托管。交易平台eToro也在其平台上提供狗狗币交易。Webull于4月20日允许其用户重新购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>FOMO</p><p><blockquote>FOMO</blockquote></p><p>Fear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>据说，对错过的恐惧也是激增的原因。一些加密货币参与者推测，狗狗币的上涨得到了散户交易者的支持，他们认为这种模仿币比比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)更容易获得投资（或交易），比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)在CoinDesk上最后一次检查时易手价格为54,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Dogecoin&nbsp;is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在每日报告中写道：“狗狗币正在飙升，因为许多加密货币交易者不想错过埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)主持《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)引发的任何轰动。”</blockquote></p><p>Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.</p><p><blockquote>传统资产的收益也可能看起来更加平淡无奇。相比之下，黄金期货GC00, 0.17%今年迄今已下跌6%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,+0.06%和标普500指数SPX,-0.67%在2021年至少上涨10%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-1.88%涨幅超过5%。</blockquote></p><p>Accessibility</p><p><blockquote>可访问性</blockquote></p><p>Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of&nbsp;Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.</p><p><blockquote>Allnodes首席执行官康斯坦丁·博伊科-罗曼诺夫斯基(Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky)通过电子邮件表示，他认为马斯克和亿万富翁马克·库班(Mark Cuban)的支持是狗狗币牛市论点的核心，但也表示，有些人可能认为与比特币相比，这种加密货币更容易使用，最近在冷却之前触及60,000美元以上的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“它对公众更有吸引力，因为它的成本很低。一张比特币6万美元可能会让一些人感到害怕。在某种程度上，doge更像是一种美元，但以数字形式，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles &amp; manias</p><p><blockquote>泡沫与狂热</blockquote></p><p>Moya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”</p><p><blockquote>莫亚写道，狗狗币泡沫“现在应该已经破裂，但机构兴趣正试图利用这一势头，这可能会支持进一步推高。”</blockquote></p><p>Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.</p><p><blockquote>许多怀疑论者警告说，如果狗狗币不谨慎地涉足该资产，可能会给许多新手投资者带来巨大损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-05 09:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Every dog has its day…but a whole year?</p><p><blockquote>每只狗都有它的一天…但是一整年呢？</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，狗狗币（与柴犬图像相关的模因加密货币）一直是近年来加密货币最好的一年，今年迄今的涨幅超过11,000%，并跻身前10名今年最有价值的数字资产。</blockquote></p><p>At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，根据上次检查，dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%的易手价格为54美分，过去24小时内上涨了23%以上，2021年迄今为止上涨了约11,210%。</blockquote></p><p>That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛物线式上涨既引起了掌声，也引起了担忧，因为其支持者的目标是将这枚模仿硬币的价值推至接近1美元，批评者警告说，该资产具有资产泡沫的所有特征，资产泡沫必然会破裂并留下大屠杀。</blockquote></p><p>Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7201d3eb982c0d5d636bf8ff4a1ca7\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,”&nbsp;on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>只是，不要告诉那些为加密货币欢呼的人，否则就有可能遇到这种常见的重复：“享受贫穷。”那么，为什么狗狗币（发音为“dōj-coin”）会遭受如此巨大的损失，以至于超过了被认为是数字资产和区块链时代更严肃代表的加密货币？以下是一些原因：</blockquote></p><p>Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’</p><p><blockquote>其最大的助推器将是客座主持人“SNL”</blockquote></p><p>Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers&nbsp;for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司和SpaceX的首席执行官Elon Musk将于本周末主持“周六夜现场”，这已经为这位技术专家赢得了欢呼和嘲笑。他已经成为今年dogecoin最著名和最直言不讳的拥护者之一，一些人猜测他可以做些什么来推广doge。</blockquote></p><p>Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在《周六夜现场》演出前的一条推文中确实称自己为“狗爸爸”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a1a1602240507ad985c5efcb2571f5\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Brokerages trade dogecoin</p><p><blockquote>券商交易狗狗币</blockquote></p><p>A number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一些新的场所已经宣布，他们将在最近几天和几周内在他们的交易所交易狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform&nbsp;eToro also made dogecoin&nbsp;available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所Geminion周二宣布支持该硬币的交易和托管。交易平台eToro也在其平台上提供狗狗币交易。Webull于4月20日允许其用户重新购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>FOMO</p><p><blockquote>FOMO</blockquote></p><p>Fear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>据说，对错过的恐惧也是激增的原因。一些加密货币参与者推测，狗狗币的上涨得到了散户交易者的支持，他们认为这种模仿币比比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)更容易获得投资（或交易），比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)在CoinDesk上最后一次检查时易手价格为54,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Dogecoin&nbsp;is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在每日报告中写道：“狗狗币正在飙升，因为许多加密货币交易者不想错过埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)主持《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)引发的任何轰动。”</blockquote></p><p>Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.</p><p><blockquote>传统资产的收益也可能看起来更加平淡无奇。相比之下，黄金期货GC00, 0.17%今年迄今已下跌6%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,+0.06%和标普500指数SPX,-0.67%在2021年至少上涨10%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-1.88%涨幅超过5%。</blockquote></p><p>Accessibility</p><p><blockquote>可访问性</blockquote></p><p>Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of&nbsp;Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.</p><p><blockquote>Allnodes首席执行官康斯坦丁·博伊科-罗曼诺夫斯基(Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky)通过电子邮件表示，他认为马斯克和亿万富翁马克·库班(Mark Cuban)的支持是狗狗币牛市论点的核心，但也表示，有些人可能认为与比特币相比，这种加密货币更容易使用，最近在冷却之前触及60,000美元以上的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“它对公众更有吸引力，因为它的成本很低。一张比特币6万美元可能会让一些人感到害怕。在某种程度上，doge更像是一种美元，但以数字形式，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles &amp; manias</p><p><blockquote>泡沫与狂热</blockquote></p><p>Moya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”</p><p><blockquote>莫亚写道，狗狗币泡沫“现在应该已经破裂，但机构兴趣正试图利用这一势头，这可能会支持进一步推高。”</blockquote></p><p>Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.</p><p><blockquote>许多怀疑论者警告说，如果狗狗币不谨慎地涉足该资产，可能会给许多新手投资者带来巨大损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-dogecoins-price-spiking-the-crypto-has-surged-11-000-in-2021-11620151738?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-dogecoins-price-spiking-the-crypto-has-surged-11-000-in-2021-11620151738?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115203133","content_text":"Every dog has its day…but a whole year?Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,” on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn cheers and jeers for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.Brokerages trade dogecoinA number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform eToro also made dogecoin available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.FOMOFear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.“Dogecoin is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.AccessibilityKonstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.Bubbles & maniasMoya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106606272,"gmtCreate":1620106836996,"gmtModify":1634207747318,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106606272","repostId":"1177826324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177826324","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620099029,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177826324?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ethereum at $5,000? One financial advisor CEO says it could happen this week<blockquote>以太币5000美元？一位财务顾问首席执行官表示这可能会在本周发生</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177826324","media":"Fortune","summary":"Our mission to make business better is fueled by readers like you. To enjoy unlimited access to our ","content":"<p>Our mission to make business better is fueled by readers like you. To enjoy unlimited access to our journalism,subscribe today.</p><p><blockquote>像您这样的读者推动了我们让业务变得更好的使命。要无限制地访问我们的新闻，请立即订阅。</blockquote></p><p> Ethereum continued its record run Monday, once again hitting an all-time high of $3,204, but the CEO of one financial advisory firm says he believes the crypto will top $5,000 within the next week.</p><p><blockquote>以太币周一继续创下历史新高，再次创下3,204美元的历史新高，但一家金融咨询公司的首席执行官表示，他相信该加密货币将在下周内突破5,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, saysEthereum’stime has come—and the digital currency is well positioned to increase its market share.</p><p><blockquote>deVere Group首席执行官兼创始人奈杰尔·格林（Nigel Green）表示，以太坊的时代已经到来，这种数字货币已经做好了增加市场份额的准备。</blockquote></p><p> “Ether is one of the main beneficiaries in the wider explosion in the cryptocurrency market,” he said. “The boom over recent months has been fueled by soaring interest from major institutional investors and growing recognition that borderless digital currencies are the future of money. This momentum is likely to build further in the near-term and I believe Ether will hit $5,000 within seven days.”</p><p><blockquote>“以太币是加密货币市场更广泛爆发的主要受益者之一，”他说。“近几个月的繁荣是由主要机构投资者的兴趣飙升以及人们越来越认识到无国界数字货币是货币的未来所推动的。这种势头可能会在短期内进一步增强，我相信以太币将在七天内达到5,000美元。”</blockquote></p><p> Ethereum, the world’ssecond largest cryptocurrency, is up more than 321% year to date, compared to a 98% increase in the price of Bitcoin, but it hasn’t captured quite the same zeitgeist among investors.</p><p><blockquote>全球第二大加密货币以太币今年迄今已上涨超过321%，而比特币的价格则上涨了98%，但它并没有在投资者中抓住同样的时代精神。</blockquote></p><p> Green argues it’s a more scalable currency and has a superior blockchain technology.</p><p><blockquote>格林认为这是一种更具可扩展性的货币，并且拥有卓越的区块链技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ethereum has been on an upswing for several days after the European Investment Bank issued its first-ever digital bond sale on the Ethereum blockchain network. Bloomberg reported the sale will be led byGoldman Sachs, Banco Santander, andSociete Generale.</p><p><blockquote>在欧洲投资银行在以太币区块链网络上首次发行数字债券后，以太币连续几天上涨。彭博社报道称，此次出售将由高盛、桑坦德银行和法国兴业银行牵头。</blockquote></p><p> The supply of Ethereum has also been dropping amid increased demand and businesses have been investing in startups that revolve around Ethereum, including such big names asMastercard, UBS, and JPMorgan. A $1,000investment in Ether in 2015 would be worthover $4.7 million today.</p><p><blockquote>随着需求的增加，以太币的供应也在下降，企业一直在投资围绕以太币的初创公司，包括万事达卡、瑞银和摩根大通等知名公司。2015年对乙醚的1000美元投资在今天的价值将超过470万美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Ethereum is already years ahead of Bitcoin in everything but price and fame,” said Green.&nbsp;“There’s a real sense that 2021 is the year for Ether. Its time has come.”</p><p><blockquote>Green说：“除了价格和名气，以太币在所有方面都已经领先比特币好几年了。人们确实感觉到2021年是以太的一年。时机已经到来。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1618285953446","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ethereum at $5,000? One financial advisor CEO says it could happen this week<blockquote>以太币5000美元？一位财务顾问首席执行官表示这可能会在本周发生</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEthereum at $5,000? One financial advisor CEO says it could happen this week<blockquote>以太币5000美元？一位财务顾问首席执行官表示这可能会在本周发生</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Fortune</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Our mission to make business better is fueled by readers like you. To enjoy unlimited access to our journalism,subscribe today.</p><p><blockquote>像您这样的读者推动了我们让业务变得更好的使命。要无限制地访问我们的新闻，请立即订阅。</blockquote></p><p> Ethereum continued its record run Monday, once again hitting an all-time high of $3,204, but the CEO of one financial advisory firm says he believes the crypto will top $5,000 within the next week.</p><p><blockquote>以太币周一继续创下历史新高，再次创下3,204美元的历史新高，但一家金融咨询公司的首席执行官表示，他相信该加密货币将在下周内突破5,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, saysEthereum’stime has come—and the digital currency is well positioned to increase its market share.</p><p><blockquote>deVere Group首席执行官兼创始人奈杰尔·格林（Nigel Green）表示，以太坊的时代已经到来，这种数字货币已经做好了增加市场份额的准备。</blockquote></p><p> “Ether is one of the main beneficiaries in the wider explosion in the cryptocurrency market,” he said. “The boom over recent months has been fueled by soaring interest from major institutional investors and growing recognition that borderless digital currencies are the future of money. This momentum is likely to build further in the near-term and I believe Ether will hit $5,000 within seven days.”</p><p><blockquote>“以太币是加密货币市场更广泛爆发的主要受益者之一，”他说。“近几个月的繁荣是由主要机构投资者的兴趣飙升以及人们越来越认识到无国界数字货币是货币的未来所推动的。这种势头可能会在短期内进一步增强，我相信以太币将在七天内达到5,000美元。”</blockquote></p><p> Ethereum, the world’ssecond largest cryptocurrency, is up more than 321% year to date, compared to a 98% increase in the price of Bitcoin, but it hasn’t captured quite the same zeitgeist among investors.</p><p><blockquote>全球第二大加密货币以太币今年迄今已上涨超过321%，而比特币的价格则上涨了98%，但它并没有在投资者中抓住同样的时代精神。</blockquote></p><p> Green argues it’s a more scalable currency and has a superior blockchain technology.</p><p><blockquote>格林认为这是一种更具可扩展性的货币，并且拥有卓越的区块链技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ethereum has been on an upswing for several days after the European Investment Bank issued its first-ever digital bond sale on the Ethereum blockchain network. Bloomberg reported the sale will be led byGoldman Sachs, Banco Santander, andSociete Generale.</p><p><blockquote>在欧洲投资银行在以太币区块链网络上首次发行数字债券后，以太币连续几天上涨。彭博社报道称，此次出售将由高盛、桑坦德银行和法国兴业银行牵头。</blockquote></p><p> The supply of Ethereum has also been dropping amid increased demand and businesses have been investing in startups that revolve around Ethereum, including such big names asMastercard, UBS, and JPMorgan. A $1,000investment in Ether in 2015 would be worthover $4.7 million today.</p><p><blockquote>随着需求的增加，以太币的供应也在下降，企业一直在投资围绕以太币的初创公司，包括万事达卡、瑞银和摩根大通等知名公司。2015年对乙醚的1000美元投资在今天的价值将超过470万美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Ethereum is already years ahead of Bitcoin in everything but price and fame,” said Green.&nbsp;“There’s a real sense that 2021 is the year for Ether. Its time has come.”</p><p><blockquote>Green说：“除了价格和名气，以太币在所有方面都已经领先比特币好几年了。人们确实感觉到2021年是以太的一年。时机已经到来。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://fortune.com/2021/05/03/ethereum-price-ether-5000-dollars-record-high-crypto/\">Fortune</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ETHE":"最大以太坊ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://fortune.com/2021/05/03/ethereum-price-ether-5000-dollars-record-high-crypto/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177826324","content_text":"Our mission to make business better is fueled by readers like you. To enjoy unlimited access to our journalism,subscribe today.\nEthereum continued its record run Monday, once again hitting an all-time high of $3,204, but the CEO of one financial advisory firm says he believes the crypto will top $5,000 within the next week.\nNigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, saysEthereum’stime has come—and the digital currency is well positioned to increase its market share.\n“Ether is one of the main beneficiaries in the wider explosion in the cryptocurrency market,” he said. “The boom over recent months has been fueled by soaring interest from major institutional investors and growing recognition that borderless digital currencies are the future of money. This momentum is likely to build further in the near-term and I believe Ether will hit $5,000 within seven days.”\nEthereum, the world’ssecond largest cryptocurrency, is up more than 321% year to date, compared to a 98% increase in the price of Bitcoin, but it hasn’t captured quite the same zeitgeist among investors.\nGreen argues it’s a more scalable currency and has a superior blockchain technology.\nEthereum has been on an upswing for several days after the European Investment Bank issued its first-ever digital bond sale on the Ethereum blockchain network. Bloomberg reported the sale will be led byGoldman Sachs, Banco Santander, andSociete Generale.\nThe supply of Ethereum has also been dropping amid increased demand and businesses have been investing in startups that revolve around Ethereum, including such big names asMastercard, UBS, and JPMorgan. A $1,000investment in Ether in 2015 would be worthover $4.7 million today.\n“Ethereum is already years ahead of Bitcoin in everything but price and fame,” said Green. “There’s a real sense that 2021 is the year for Ether. Its time has come.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ETHE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106606093,"gmtCreate":1620106792912,"gmtModify":1634207747801,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Amd??","listText":"Amd??","text":"Amd??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106606093","repostId":"1103003554","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103003554","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620096039,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103003554?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 10:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我永远不会出售的3只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103003554","media":"The motley fool","summary":"I've fully bought into the Warren Buffett axiom of \"the best time to sell a stock is never,\" but as ","content":"<p>I've fully bought into the Warren Buffett axiom of \"the best time to sell a stock is never,\" but as we also all know, never say never. After all, even the Oracle of Omaha routinely sells stocks he owns.</p><p><blockquote>我完全相信沃伦·巴菲特的公理“卖出股票的最佳时机是永远”，但众所周知，永远不要说永远。毕竟，即使是奥马哈先知也经常出售他拥有的股票。</blockquote></p><p>While breaking the day-trading mindset is obviously the goal of such pithy sayings, holding onto shares for years, decades even, is the preferred time horizon and what I'm planning to do with the stocks in my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>虽然打破日内交易思维显然是这些精辟说法的目标，但持有股票数年甚至数十年是首选的时间范围，也是我计划如何处理投资组合中的股票。</blockquote></p><p>However, with the three stocks below, I plan on never selling them because they have proven to be successful businesses with staying power and competitive advantages that will keep them well ahead of their rivals far into the future.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于下面的三只股票，我计划永远不会出售它们，因为它们已被证明是成功的企业，具有持久力和竞争优势，这将使它们在未来远远领先于竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>American States Water</p><p><blockquote>美国各州水务</blockquote></p><p>The \"rule of threes\" is critical for survival: You can survive for three minutes without air, three days without water, and three weeks without food. While Mark Twain once remarked, \"Buy land, they're not making it anymore,\" water is an even more scarce resource, and<b>American States Water</b>(NYSE:AWR)is tasked with mostly providing Southern California with clean water and electricity.</p><p><blockquote>“三法则”对生存至关重要：你可以在没有空气的情况下生存三分钟，没有水的情况下生存三天，没有食物的情况下生存三周。虽然马克·吐温曾经说过，“买土地，他们就不再生产了”，但水是一种更加稀缺的资源，而且<b>美国各州水务</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AWR）的主要任务是为南加州提供清洁的水和电力。</blockquote></p><p>Water generation makes up the lion's share of its business, representing over two-thirds of American States' operating revenue in 2020, but another 25% comes from providing military installations around the country with water as well, and those are under long-term, 50-year contracts. Electricity makes up the rest of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>水力发电占其业务的最大份额，占2020年美国各州营业收入的三分之二以上，但另外25%也来自为全国各地的军事设施提供水，而且这些都是长期的，50年合同。电力构成了其其余收入。</blockquote></p><p>That allows American States Water to provide significant stability to investors. While it might not generate especiallyexciting capital appreciation, it makes up for it with steady dividend growth.</p><p><blockquote>这使得美国国家水务公司能够为投资者提供显着的稳定性。虽然它可能不会产生特别令人兴奋的资本增值，但它可以通过稳定的股息增长来弥补这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The water utility has paid dividends for over 81 consecutive years and has increased the payouts each year for 66 years. That puts it among an elite group of stocks known asDividend Kings, which are companies that have raised their dividend payments for 50 years or more. The surety of its payout may be one reason you will never want to sell American States Water stock either.</p><p><blockquote>该自来水公司已连续81年支付股息，并连续66年每年增加派息。这使其跻身于被称为股息之王的精英股票之列，这些公司已提高股息支付50年或更长时间。其支付的保证可能是你永远不想出售美国国家水务公司股票的一个原因。</blockquote></p><p>Colgate-Palmolive</p><p><blockquote>高露洁棕榄</blockquote></p><p>The strength of<b>Colgate-Palmolive</b>(NYSE:CL)is found in its portfolio of name brand consumer products -- everything from its leading toothpaste and dish washing liquids to Ajax, Murphy Oil, and Tom's of Maine. These are essential consumer and household goods people naturally reach for in good times and bad.</p><p><blockquote>的力量<b>高露洁棕榄</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CL）的品牌消费品组合包括从领先的牙膏和洗碗液到Ajax、Murphy Oil和Tom's of Maine。这些都是人们在顺境和逆境中自然会得到的基本消费品和家庭用品。</blockquote></p><p>There's comfort in knowing a product will perform time and again, and thatlegacy extends internationally&nbsp;where Colgate derives some 70% of its revenue and where it also has leading brands in most categories.</p><p><blockquote>知道一种产品会一次又一次地发挥作用是令人欣慰的，而且这种传统延伸到了国际上，高露洁约70%的收入来自那里，并且在大多数类别中也拥有领先品牌。</blockquote></p><p>Yet many investors turn to Colgate-Palmolive because of its enviable record in paying a dividend. It made its first payout in 1895 and never stopped, and then began increasing the dividend every year beginning in 1963, meaning for nearly 60 years investors could count on a rising stream of income from the consumer products giant.</p><p><blockquote>然而，许多投资者转向高露洁棕榄，因为它在支付股息方面有着令人羡慕的记录。它于1895年首次派息，从未停止，然后从1963年开始每年增加股息，这意味着近60年来，投资者可以指望这家消费品巨头不断增加的收入。</blockquote></p><p>A stellar track record, a solid financial base, and a global reach are just some of the reasons why Colgate is a fixture in my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>卓越的业绩记录、坚实的财务基础和全球影响力只是高露洁成为我投资组合中固定产品的部分原因。</blockquote></p><p>ExxonMobil</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚</blockquote></p><p>Due to innovations in the oil and gas industry and massive new fields discovered, the dire predictions of so-called \"peak oil\" have largely faded from the headlines, but the global pandemic revealed the ways in which industry majors like<b>ExxonMobil</b>(NYSE:XOM)are still vulnerable.</p><p><blockquote>由于石油和天然气行业的创新和大规模新油田的发现，所谓“石油峰值”的可怕预测已基本从头条新闻中消失，但全球大流行揭示了行业巨头喜欢的方式<b>埃克森美孚</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）仍然很脆弱。</blockquote></p><p>That it took nearly all the world's governments virtually closing down their economies to weaken the oil and gas giant, however, shows just how enduring its business really is. There may be a movement toward greener energy, but fossil fuel demand is going to be a key component of our everyday life for decades to come.</p><p><blockquote>然而，世界上几乎所有政府都几乎关闭了经济，才削弱了这家石油和天然气巨头的实力，这表明了其业务的持久性。可能会有一场走向绿色能源的运动，但在未来几十年里，化石燃料需求将成为我们日常生活的关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p>Still, Exxon is going to be a slimmer operation than it was in years past. Cost-cutting measures rule the day in an effort to rein in the significant mountain of debt it has accumulated from its capital intensive exploration and development projects. Low oil prices caused it to shelve most initiatives for the time being, but as economies reopen and demand is reignited, higher pricing will help alleviate the concerns many hold about its ability to meet its obligations.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，埃克森美孚的业务仍将比过去几年更加精简。削减成本措施占据主导地位，以控制其资本密集型勘探和开发项目积累的巨额债务。低油价导致其暂时搁置了大多数举措，但随着经济重新开放和需求重新点燃，更高的定价将有助于缓解许多人对其履行义务能力的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>One of those is its dividend. Unlike other oil majors, Exxon maintained that not cutting it was an imperative. 2020 was thefirst time in 18 yearsit did not raise the payout. However, because dividends for the calendar year were higher than the prior year, the company continues to be considered aDividend Aristocratas it has been for nearly four decades.</p><p><blockquote>其中之一就是它的股息。与其他石油巨头不同，埃克森美孚坚持认为不减产是当务之急。2020年是18年来首次没有提高派息。然而，由于日历年的股息高于上一年，该公司仍然被视为近四十年来的股息贵族。</blockquote></p><p>I'm betting ExxonMobil is going to be around a lot longer than most green-tinted companies that are trying to supplant it, and I plan to hang on for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，埃克森美孚的存在时间将比大多数试图取代它的绿色公司长得多，我计划长期坚持下去。</blockquote></p><p>Should you invest $1,000 in Exxon Mobil Corporation right now?</p><p><blockquote>您现在应该向埃克森美孚公司投资1,000美元吗？</blockquote></p><p>Before you consider Exxon Mobil Corporation, you'll want to hear this.</p><p><blockquote>在您考虑埃克森美孚公司之前，您会想听听这个。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Investing legends and Motley Fool Co-founders David and Tom Gardner just revealed what they believe are the<b>10 best stocks</b>for investors to buy right now... and Exxon Mobil Corporation wasn't one of them.</p><p><blockquote>Investing legends和Motley Fool联合创始人David和Tom Gardner刚刚透露了他们认为的<b>10只最佳股票</b>供投资者立即购买...埃克森美孚公司不在其中。</blockquote></p><p>The online investing service they've run for nearly two decades,<i>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</i>, has beaten the stock market by over 4X.* And right now, they think there are 10 stocks that are better buys.</p><p><blockquote>他们经营了近二十年的在线投资服务，<i>杂色傻瓜股票顾问</i>，比股市高出4倍以上。*目前，他们认为有10只股票更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我永远不会出售的3只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks I'm Never Selling<blockquote>我永远不会出售的3只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The motley fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 10:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I've fully bought into the Warren Buffett axiom of \"the best time to sell a stock is never,\" but as we also all know, never say never. After all, even the Oracle of Omaha routinely sells stocks he owns.</p><p><blockquote>我完全相信沃伦·巴菲特的公理“卖出股票的最佳时机是永远”，但众所周知，永远不要说永远。毕竟，即使是奥马哈先知也经常出售他拥有的股票。</blockquote></p><p>While breaking the day-trading mindset is obviously the goal of such pithy sayings, holding onto shares for years, decades even, is the preferred time horizon and what I'm planning to do with the stocks in my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>虽然打破日内交易思维显然是这些精辟说法的目标，但持有股票数年甚至数十年是首选的时间范围，也是我计划如何处理投资组合中的股票。</blockquote></p><p>However, with the three stocks below, I plan on never selling them because they have proven to be successful businesses with staying power and competitive advantages that will keep them well ahead of their rivals far into the future.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于下面的三只股票，我计划永远不会出售它们，因为它们已被证明是成功的企业，具有持久力和竞争优势，这将使它们在未来远远领先于竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>American States Water</p><p><blockquote>美国各州水务</blockquote></p><p>The \"rule of threes\" is critical for survival: You can survive for three minutes without air, three days without water, and three weeks without food. While Mark Twain once remarked, \"Buy land, they're not making it anymore,\" water is an even more scarce resource, and<b>American States Water</b>(NYSE:AWR)is tasked with mostly providing Southern California with clean water and electricity.</p><p><blockquote>“三法则”对生存至关重要：你可以在没有空气的情况下生存三分钟，没有水的情况下生存三天，没有食物的情况下生存三周。虽然马克·吐温曾经说过，“买土地，他们就不再生产了”，但水是一种更加稀缺的资源，而且<b>美国各州水务</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AWR）的主要任务是为南加州提供清洁的水和电力。</blockquote></p><p>Water generation makes up the lion's share of its business, representing over two-thirds of American States' operating revenue in 2020, but another 25% comes from providing military installations around the country with water as well, and those are under long-term, 50-year contracts. Electricity makes up the rest of its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>水力发电占其业务的最大份额，占2020年美国各州营业收入的三分之二以上，但另外25%也来自为全国各地的军事设施提供水，而且这些都是长期的，50年合同。电力构成了其其余收入。</blockquote></p><p>That allows American States Water to provide significant stability to investors. While it might not generate especiallyexciting capital appreciation, it makes up for it with steady dividend growth.</p><p><blockquote>这使得美国国家水务公司能够为投资者提供显着的稳定性。虽然它可能不会产生特别令人兴奋的资本增值，但它可以通过稳定的股息增长来弥补这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The water utility has paid dividends for over 81 consecutive years and has increased the payouts each year for 66 years. That puts it among an elite group of stocks known asDividend Kings, which are companies that have raised their dividend payments for 50 years or more. The surety of its payout may be one reason you will never want to sell American States Water stock either.</p><p><blockquote>该自来水公司已连续81年支付股息，并连续66年每年增加派息。这使其跻身于被称为股息之王的精英股票之列，这些公司已提高股息支付50年或更长时间。其支付的保证可能是你永远不想出售美国国家水务公司股票的一个原因。</blockquote></p><p>Colgate-Palmolive</p><p><blockquote>高露洁棕榄</blockquote></p><p>The strength of<b>Colgate-Palmolive</b>(NYSE:CL)is found in its portfolio of name brand consumer products -- everything from its leading toothpaste and dish washing liquids to Ajax, Murphy Oil, and Tom's of Maine. These are essential consumer and household goods people naturally reach for in good times and bad.</p><p><blockquote>的力量<b>高露洁棕榄</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CL）的品牌消费品组合包括从领先的牙膏和洗碗液到Ajax、Murphy Oil和Tom's of Maine。这些都是人们在顺境和逆境中自然会得到的基本消费品和家庭用品。</blockquote></p><p>There's comfort in knowing a product will perform time and again, and thatlegacy extends internationally&nbsp;where Colgate derives some 70% of its revenue and where it also has leading brands in most categories.</p><p><blockquote>知道一种产品会一次又一次地发挥作用是令人欣慰的，而且这种传统延伸到了国际上，高露洁约70%的收入来自那里，并且在大多数类别中也拥有领先品牌。</blockquote></p><p>Yet many investors turn to Colgate-Palmolive because of its enviable record in paying a dividend. It made its first payout in 1895 and never stopped, and then began increasing the dividend every year beginning in 1963, meaning for nearly 60 years investors could count on a rising stream of income from the consumer products giant.</p><p><blockquote>然而，许多投资者转向高露洁棕榄，因为它在支付股息方面有着令人羡慕的记录。它于1895年首次派息，从未停止，然后从1963年开始每年增加股息，这意味着近60年来，投资者可以指望这家消费品巨头不断增加的收入。</blockquote></p><p>A stellar track record, a solid financial base, and a global reach are just some of the reasons why Colgate is a fixture in my portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>卓越的业绩记录、坚实的财务基础和全球影响力只是高露洁成为我投资组合中固定产品的部分原因。</blockquote></p><p>ExxonMobil</p><p><blockquote>埃克森美孚</blockquote></p><p>Due to innovations in the oil and gas industry and massive new fields discovered, the dire predictions of so-called \"peak oil\" have largely faded from the headlines, but the global pandemic revealed the ways in which industry majors like<b>ExxonMobil</b>(NYSE:XOM)are still vulnerable.</p><p><blockquote>由于石油和天然气行业的创新和大规模新油田的发现，所谓“石油峰值”的可怕预测已基本从头条新闻中消失，但全球大流行揭示了行业巨头喜欢的方式<b>埃克森美孚</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）仍然很脆弱。</blockquote></p><p>That it took nearly all the world's governments virtually closing down their economies to weaken the oil and gas giant, however, shows just how enduring its business really is. There may be a movement toward greener energy, but fossil fuel demand is going to be a key component of our everyday life for decades to come.</p><p><blockquote>然而，世界上几乎所有政府都几乎关闭了经济，才削弱了这家石油和天然气巨头的实力，这表明了其业务的持久性。可能会有一场走向绿色能源的运动，但在未来几十年里，化石燃料需求将成为我们日常生活的关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p>Still, Exxon is going to be a slimmer operation than it was in years past. Cost-cutting measures rule the day in an effort to rein in the significant mountain of debt it has accumulated from its capital intensive exploration and development projects. Low oil prices caused it to shelve most initiatives for the time being, but as economies reopen and demand is reignited, higher pricing will help alleviate the concerns many hold about its ability to meet its obligations.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，埃克森美孚的业务仍将比过去几年更加精简。削减成本措施占据主导地位，以控制其资本密集型勘探和开发项目积累的巨额债务。低油价导致其暂时搁置了大多数举措，但随着经济重新开放和需求重新点燃，更高的定价将有助于缓解许多人对其履行义务能力的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>One of those is its dividend. Unlike other oil majors, Exxon maintained that not cutting it was an imperative. 2020 was thefirst time in 18 yearsit did not raise the payout. However, because dividends for the calendar year were higher than the prior year, the company continues to be considered aDividend Aristocratas it has been for nearly four decades.</p><p><blockquote>其中之一就是它的股息。与其他石油巨头不同，埃克森美孚坚持认为不减产是当务之急。2020年是18年来首次没有提高派息。然而，由于日历年的股息高于上一年，该公司仍然被视为近四十年来的股息贵族。</blockquote></p><p>I'm betting ExxonMobil is going to be around a lot longer than most green-tinted companies that are trying to supplant it, and I plan to hang on for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，埃克森美孚的存在时间将比大多数试图取代它的绿色公司长得多，我计划长期坚持下去。</blockquote></p><p>Should you invest $1,000 in Exxon Mobil Corporation right now?</p><p><blockquote>您现在应该向埃克森美孚公司投资1,000美元吗？</blockquote></p><p>Before you consider Exxon Mobil Corporation, you'll want to hear this.</p><p><blockquote>在您考虑埃克森美孚公司之前，您会想听听这个。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Investing legends and Motley Fool Co-founders David and Tom Gardner just revealed what they believe are the<b>10 best stocks</b>for investors to buy right now... and Exxon Mobil Corporation wasn't one of them.</p><p><blockquote>Investing legends和Motley Fool联合创始人David和Tom Gardner刚刚透露了他们认为的<b>10只最佳股票</b>供投资者立即购买...埃克森美孚公司不在其中。</blockquote></p><p>The online investing service they've run for nearly two decades,<i>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</i>, has beaten the stock market by over 4X.* And right now, they think there are 10 stocks that are better buys.</p><p><blockquote>他们经营了近二十年的在线投资服务，<i>杂色傻瓜股票顾问</i>，比股市高出4倍以上。*目前，他们认为有10只股票更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/03/3-stocks-im-never-selling/\">The motley fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e4944908df81bfad358b07ba0dc819","relate_stocks":{"AWR":"美洲国家水务","XOM":"埃克森美孚","CL":"高露洁"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/03/3-stocks-im-never-selling/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103003554","content_text":"I've fully bought into the Warren Buffett axiom of \"the best time to sell a stock is never,\" but as we also all know, never say never. After all, even the Oracle of Omaha routinely sells stocks he owns.While breaking the day-trading mindset is obviously the goal of such pithy sayings, holding onto shares for years, decades even, is the preferred time horizon and what I'm planning to do with the stocks in my portfolio.However, with the three stocks below, I plan on never selling them because they have proven to be successful businesses with staying power and competitive advantages that will keep them well ahead of their rivals far into the future.American States WaterThe \"rule of threes\" is critical for survival: You can survive for three minutes without air, three days without water, and three weeks without food. While Mark Twain once remarked, \"Buy land, they're not making it anymore,\" water is an even more scarce resource, andAmerican States Water(NYSE:AWR)is tasked with mostly providing Southern California with clean water and electricity.Water generation makes up the lion's share of its business, representing over two-thirds of American States' operating revenue in 2020, but another 25% comes from providing military installations around the country with water as well, and those are under long-term, 50-year contracts. Electricity makes up the rest of its revenue.That allows American States Water to provide significant stability to investors. While it might not generate especiallyexciting capital appreciation, it makes up for it with steady dividend growth.The water utility has paid dividends for over 81 consecutive years and has increased the payouts each year for 66 years. That puts it among an elite group of stocks known asDividend Kings, which are companies that have raised their dividend payments for 50 years or more. The surety of its payout may be one reason you will never want to sell American States Water stock either.Colgate-PalmoliveThe strength ofColgate-Palmolive(NYSE:CL)is found in its portfolio of name brand consumer products -- everything from its leading toothpaste and dish washing liquids to Ajax, Murphy Oil, and Tom's of Maine. These are essential consumer and household goods people naturally reach for in good times and bad.There's comfort in knowing a product will perform time and again, and thatlegacy extends internationally where Colgate derives some 70% of its revenue and where it also has leading brands in most categories.Yet many investors turn to Colgate-Palmolive because of its enviable record in paying a dividend. It made its first payout in 1895 and never stopped, and then began increasing the dividend every year beginning in 1963, meaning for nearly 60 years investors could count on a rising stream of income from the consumer products giant.A stellar track record, a solid financial base, and a global reach are just some of the reasons why Colgate is a fixture in my portfolio.ExxonMobilDue to innovations in the oil and gas industry and massive new fields discovered, the dire predictions of so-called \"peak oil\" have largely faded from the headlines, but the global pandemic revealed the ways in which industry majors likeExxonMobil(NYSE:XOM)are still vulnerable.That it took nearly all the world's governments virtually closing down their economies to weaken the oil and gas giant, however, shows just how enduring its business really is. There may be a movement toward greener energy, but fossil fuel demand is going to be a key component of our everyday life for decades to come.Still, Exxon is going to be a slimmer operation than it was in years past. Cost-cutting measures rule the day in an effort to rein in the significant mountain of debt it has accumulated from its capital intensive exploration and development projects. Low oil prices caused it to shelve most initiatives for the time being, but as economies reopen and demand is reignited, higher pricing will help alleviate the concerns many hold about its ability to meet its obligations.One of those is its dividend. Unlike other oil majors, Exxon maintained that not cutting it was an imperative. 2020 was thefirst time in 18 yearsit did not raise the payout. However, because dividends for the calendar year were higher than the prior year, the company continues to be considered aDividend Aristocratas it has been for nearly four decades.I'm betting ExxonMobil is going to be around a lot longer than most green-tinted companies that are trying to supplant it, and I plan to hang on for the long term.Should you invest $1,000 in Exxon Mobil Corporation right now?Before you consider Exxon Mobil Corporation, you'll want to hear this.Investing legends and Motley Fool Co-founders David and Tom Gardner just revealed what they believe are the10 best stocksfor investors to buy right now... and Exxon Mobil Corporation wasn't one of them.The online investing service they've run for nearly two decades,Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has beaten the stock market by over 4X.* And right now, they think there are 10 stocks that are better buys.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AWR":0.9,"CL":0.9,"XOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106608919,"gmtCreate":1620106745331,"gmtModify":1634207748610,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please!","listText":"Like and comment please!","text":"Like and comment please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106608919","repostId":"1147234999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108789630,"gmtCreate":1620054597220,"gmtModify":1631886621309,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Uranium is super bullish!","listText":"Uranium is super bullish!","text":"Uranium is super bullish!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35a3c70b6a2c29af9270cea3b00515c","width":"750","height":"1727"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108789630","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108780277,"gmtCreate":1620054537799,"gmtModify":1634208177693,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls comment and like! Thanks in advance!","listText":"Pls comment and like! Thanks in advance!","text":"Pls comment and like! Thanks in advance!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108780277","repostId":"1194616315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108780190,"gmtCreate":1620054511310,"gmtModify":1634208178055,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls comment!","listText":"Pls comment!","text":"Pls comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108780190","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135819410?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-03 07:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步","PFE":"辉瑞","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GM":"通用汽车",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TMUS":0.9,"VIACP":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108515407,"gmtCreate":1620040545709,"gmtModify":1634208324131,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stocks heavily reliant on chips will likely suffer selldowns in coming earnings due to shortages:- Unable to meet demand due to supply pressures- lower forward guidances due to ⬆️ uncertainty- delays in rolling out new products (affects forward rev)","listText":"Stocks heavily reliant on chips will likely suffer selldowns in coming earnings due to shortages:- Unable to meet demand due to supply pressures- lower forward guidances due to ⬆️ uncertainty- delays in rolling out new products (affects forward rev)","text":"Stocks heavily reliant on chips will likely suffer selldowns in coming earnings due to shortages:- Unable to meet demand due to supply pressures- lower forward guidances due to ⬆️ uncertainty- delays in rolling out new products (affects forward rev)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108515407","repostId":"2132359636","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103093018,"gmtCreate":1619737588934,"gmtModify":1634210388808,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Watch $IPA&nbsp;","listText":"Watch $IPA&nbsp;","text":"Watch $IPA","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38f5894c4a70fd60fbf7891f08ed6a5d","width":"750","height":"1677"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103093018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103007839,"gmtCreate":1619737471121,"gmtModify":1631885931892,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMRS\">$Amyris(AMRS)$</a>sell down today hurts!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMRS\">$Amyris(AMRS)$</a>sell down today hurts!","text":"$Amyris(AMRS)$sell down today hurts!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ddce2822b6d0839660477be591b87","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103007839","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":102275144,"gmtCreate":1620221847988,"gmtModify":1634206885479,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and commment!","listText":"Pls like and commment!","text":"Pls like and commment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102275144","repostId":"1115203133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115203133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620178775,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115203133?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-05 09:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115203133","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"Every dog has its day…but a whole year?Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image ","content":"<p>Every dog has its day…but a whole year?</p><p><blockquote>每只狗都有它的一天…但是一整年呢？</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，狗狗币（与柴犬图像相关的模因加密货币）一直是近年来加密货币最好的一年，今年迄今的涨幅超过11,000%，并跻身前10名今年最有价值的数字资产。</blockquote></p><p>At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，根据上次检查，dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%的易手价格为54美分，过去24小时内上涨了23%以上，2021年迄今为止上涨了约11,210%。</blockquote></p><p>That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛物线式上涨既引起了掌声，也引起了担忧，因为其支持者的目标是将这枚模仿硬币的价值推至接近1美元，批评者警告说，该资产具有资产泡沫的所有特征，资产泡沫必然会破裂并留下大屠杀。</blockquote></p><p>Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7201d3eb982c0d5d636bf8ff4a1ca7\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,”&nbsp;on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>只是，不要告诉那些为加密货币欢呼的人，否则就有可能遇到这种常见的重复：“享受贫穷。”那么，为什么狗狗币（发音为“dōj-coin”）会遭受如此巨大的损失，以至于超过了被认为是数字资产和区块链时代更严肃代表的加密货币？以下是一些原因：</blockquote></p><p>Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’</p><p><blockquote>其最大的助推器将是客座主持人“SNL”</blockquote></p><p>Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers&nbsp;for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司和SpaceX的首席执行官Elon Musk将于本周末主持“周六夜现场”，这已经为这位技术专家赢得了欢呼和嘲笑。他已经成为今年dogecoin最著名和最直言不讳的拥护者之一，一些人猜测他可以做些什么来推广doge。</blockquote></p><p>Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在《周六夜现场》演出前的一条推文中确实称自己为“狗爸爸”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a1a1602240507ad985c5efcb2571f5\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Brokerages trade dogecoin</p><p><blockquote>券商交易狗狗币</blockquote></p><p>A number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一些新的场所已经宣布，他们将在最近几天和几周内在他们的交易所交易狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform&nbsp;eToro also made dogecoin&nbsp;available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所Geminion周二宣布支持该硬币的交易和托管。交易平台eToro也在其平台上提供狗狗币交易。Webull于4月20日允许其用户重新购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>FOMO</p><p><blockquote>FOMO</blockquote></p><p>Fear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>据说，对错过的恐惧也是激增的原因。一些加密货币参与者推测，狗狗币的上涨得到了散户交易者的支持，他们认为这种模仿币比比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)更容易获得投资（或交易），比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)在CoinDesk上最后一次检查时易手价格为54,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Dogecoin&nbsp;is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在每日报告中写道：“狗狗币正在飙升，因为许多加密货币交易者不想错过埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)主持《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)引发的任何轰动。”</blockquote></p><p>Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.</p><p><blockquote>传统资产的收益也可能看起来更加平淡无奇。相比之下，黄金期货GC00, 0.17%今年迄今已下跌6%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,+0.06%和标普500指数SPX,-0.67%在2021年至少上涨10%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-1.88%涨幅超过5%。</blockquote></p><p>Accessibility</p><p><blockquote>可访问性</blockquote></p><p>Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of&nbsp;Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.</p><p><blockquote>Allnodes首席执行官康斯坦丁·博伊科-罗曼诺夫斯基(Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky)通过电子邮件表示，他认为马斯克和亿万富翁马克·库班(Mark Cuban)的支持是狗狗币牛市论点的核心，但也表示，有些人可能认为与比特币相比，这种加密货币更容易使用，最近在冷却之前触及60,000美元以上的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“它对公众更有吸引力，因为它的成本很低。一张比特币6万美元可能会让一些人感到害怕。在某种程度上，doge更像是一种美元，但以数字形式，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles &amp; manias</p><p><blockquote>泡沫与狂热</blockquote></p><p>Moya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”</p><p><blockquote>莫亚写道，狗狗币泡沫“现在应该已经破裂，但机构兴趣正试图利用这一势头，这可能会支持进一步推高。”</blockquote></p><p>Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.</p><p><blockquote>许多怀疑论者警告说，如果狗狗币不谨慎地涉足该资产，可能会给许多新手投资者带来巨大损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-05 09:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Every dog has its day…but a whole year?</p><p><blockquote>每只狗都有它的一天…但是一整年呢？</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，狗狗币（与柴犬图像相关的模因加密货币）一直是近年来加密货币最好的一年，今年迄今的涨幅超过11,000%，并跻身前10名今年最有价值的数字资产。</blockquote></p><p>At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，根据上次检查，dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%的易手价格为54美分，过去24小时内上涨了23%以上，2021年迄今为止上涨了约11,210%。</blockquote></p><p>That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛物线式上涨既引起了掌声，也引起了担忧，因为其支持者的目标是将这枚模仿硬币的价值推至接近1美元，批评者警告说，该资产具有资产泡沫的所有特征，资产泡沫必然会破裂并留下大屠杀。</blockquote></p><p>Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7201d3eb982c0d5d636bf8ff4a1ca7\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,”&nbsp;on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>只是，不要告诉那些为加密货币欢呼的人，否则就有可能遇到这种常见的重复：“享受贫穷。”那么，为什么狗狗币（发音为“dōj-coin”）会遭受如此巨大的损失，以至于超过了被认为是数字资产和区块链时代更严肃代表的加密货币？以下是一些原因：</blockquote></p><p>Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’</p><p><blockquote>其最大的助推器将是客座主持人“SNL”</blockquote></p><p>Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers&nbsp;for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司和SpaceX的首席执行官Elon Musk将于本周末主持“周六夜现场”，这已经为这位技术专家赢得了欢呼和嘲笑。他已经成为今年dogecoin最著名和最直言不讳的拥护者之一，一些人猜测他可以做些什么来推广doge。</blockquote></p><p>Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在《周六夜现场》演出前的一条推文中确实称自己为“狗爸爸”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a1a1602240507ad985c5efcb2571f5\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Brokerages trade dogecoin</p><p><blockquote>券商交易狗狗币</blockquote></p><p>A number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一些新的场所已经宣布，他们将在最近几天和几周内在他们的交易所交易狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform&nbsp;eToro also made dogecoin&nbsp;available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所Geminion周二宣布支持该硬币的交易和托管。交易平台eToro也在其平台上提供狗狗币交易。Webull于4月20日允许其用户重新购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>FOMO</p><p><blockquote>FOMO</blockquote></p><p>Fear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>据说，对错过的恐惧也是激增的原因。一些加密货币参与者推测，狗狗币的上涨得到了散户交易者的支持，他们认为这种模仿币比比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)更容易获得投资（或交易），比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)在CoinDesk上最后一次检查时易手价格为54,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Dogecoin&nbsp;is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在每日报告中写道：“狗狗币正在飙升，因为许多加密货币交易者不想错过埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)主持《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)引发的任何轰动。”</blockquote></p><p>Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.</p><p><blockquote>传统资产的收益也可能看起来更加平淡无奇。相比之下，黄金期货GC00, 0.17%今年迄今已下跌6%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,+0.06%和标普500指数SPX,-0.67%在2021年至少上涨10%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-1.88%涨幅超过5%。</blockquote></p><p>Accessibility</p><p><blockquote>可访问性</blockquote></p><p>Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of&nbsp;Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.</p><p><blockquote>Allnodes首席执行官康斯坦丁·博伊科-罗曼诺夫斯基(Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky)通过电子邮件表示，他认为马斯克和亿万富翁马克·库班(Mark Cuban)的支持是狗狗币牛市论点的核心，但也表示，有些人可能认为与比特币相比，这种加密货币更容易使用，最近在冷却之前触及60,000美元以上的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“它对公众更有吸引力，因为它的成本很低。一张比特币6万美元可能会让一些人感到害怕。在某种程度上，doge更像是一种美元，但以数字形式，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles &amp; manias</p><p><blockquote>泡沫与狂热</blockquote></p><p>Moya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”</p><p><blockquote>莫亚写道，狗狗币泡沫“现在应该已经破裂，但机构兴趣正试图利用这一势头，这可能会支持进一步推高。”</blockquote></p><p>Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.</p><p><blockquote>许多怀疑论者警告说，如果狗狗币不谨慎地涉足该资产，可能会给许多新手投资者带来巨大损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-dogecoins-price-spiking-the-crypto-has-surged-11-000-in-2021-11620151738?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-dogecoins-price-spiking-the-crypto-has-surged-11-000-in-2021-11620151738?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115203133","content_text":"Every dog has its day…but a whole year?Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,” on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn cheers and jeers for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.Brokerages trade dogecoinA number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform eToro also made dogecoin available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.FOMOFear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.“Dogecoin is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.AccessibilityKonstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.Bubbles & maniasMoya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108780277,"gmtCreate":1620054537799,"gmtModify":1634208177693,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls comment and like! Thanks in advance!","listText":"Pls comment and like! Thanks in advance!","text":"Pls comment and like! Thanks in advance!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108780277","repostId":"1194616315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109352274,"gmtCreate":1619667320498,"gmtModify":1634210863494,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What I can’t understand is all my friends saythey are off $FB but yet they are still doing so well!?","listText":"What I can’t understand is all my friends saythey are off $FB but yet they are still doing so well!?","text":"What I can’t understand is all my friends saythey are off $FB but yet they are still doing so well!?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109352274","repostId":"1132578048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109359523,"gmtCreate":1619666840662,"gmtModify":1634210866662,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment!","listText":"Please like and comment!","text":"Please like and comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109359523","repostId":"1137964402","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137964402","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619651546,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137964402?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 07:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple reports another blowout quarter with sales up 54%, authorizes $90 billion in share buybacks<blockquote>苹果报告又一个井喷季度销售额增长54%，授权900亿美元股票回购</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137964402","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June.Apple authorized $90 billion in share buybacks.Apple stock rose over 4% at one point in extended trading.Apple reported double-digit growth in every single one of its product categories, and its most important product line, the iPhone, was up 65","content":"<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Apple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and&nbsp;significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.</li><li>Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June.</li><li>Apple authorized $90 billion in share buybacks.</li></ul>Apple&nbsp;reported&nbsp;a blowout quarter&nbsp;on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and&nbsp;significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果周三公布了井喷季度业绩，宣布全公司销售额比去年增长54%，利润明显强于华尔街预期。</li><li>苹果没有就截至6月份的季度的预期发布官方指引。</li><li>苹果授权900亿美元的股票回购。</li></ul>苹果周三公布了井喷季度业绩，宣布全公司销售额比去年增长54%，利润明显强于华尔街预期。</blockquote></p><p>Apple stock rose over 4% at one point in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在盘后交易中一度上涨超过4%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e791f63f460807906f1793c2d58933e\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Apple reported double-digit growth in every single one of its product categories, and its&nbsp;most important product line, the iPhone, was up 65.5% from last year. Its Mac and iPad sales&nbsp;did&nbsp;better, with its computers up 70.1% and iPad&nbsp;sales&nbsp;growing nearly 79% on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>苹果报告称，其每个产品类别都实现了两位数的增长，其最重要的产品线iPhone比去年增长了65.5%。其Mac和iPad销量表现更好，电脑销量同比增长70.1%，iPad销量同比增长近79%。</blockquote></p><p>Apple said it would increase its dividend by 7%&nbsp;to $0.22 per share&nbsp;and authorized $90 billion in share buybacks, which is significantly higher than last year’s $50 billion outlay&nbsp;and 2019′s $75 billion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果表示，将把股息提高7%至每股0.22美元，并授权900亿美元的股票回购，这明显高于去年的500亿美元支出和2019年的750亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Here’s how Apple did versus Refinitiv estimates:</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果与Refinitiv估计的表现：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>EPS</b>:&nbsp;$1.40&nbsp;vs. $0.99 estimated</li><li><b>Revenue</b>:&nbsp;$89.58&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $77.36&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 53.7% year-over-year</li><li><b>iPhone revenue</b>:&nbsp;$47.94 billion&nbsp;vs. $41.43&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up&nbsp;65.5% year-over-year</li><li><b>Services revenue</b>:&nbsp;$16.90 billion&nbsp;vs. $15.57&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 26.7% year over&nbsp;year</li><li><b>Other Products revenue</b>:&nbsp;$7.83&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $7.79&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated,&nbsp;up 24%&nbsp;year-over-year</li><li><b>Mac revenue</b>:&nbsp;$9.10&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $6.86&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 70.1% year-over-year</li><li><b>iPad revenue</b>:&nbsp;$7.80 billion&nbsp;vs. $5.58&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 78.9% year-over-year</li><li><b>Gross margin</b>:&nbsp;42.5% vs. 39.8%&nbsp;estimated</li></ul>Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June. It hasn’t provided revenue&nbsp;guidance since the start of the pandemic, citing uncertainty.&nbsp;This is Apple’s second quarter in a row with double-digit growth in all product categories.&nbsp;Apple CFO Luca Maestri told analysts that the company expects June quarter revenue to rise by double digits year-over-year, although it faces some supply shortages due to the worldwide chip shortage.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>EPS</b>：1.40美元对比。估计0.99美元</li><li><b>收入</b>：895.8亿美元对比。预计773.6亿美元，同比增长53.7%</li><li><b>iPhone收入</b>：479.4亿美元对比。预计为414.3亿美元，同比增长65.5%</li><li><b>服务收入</b>：169亿美元vs.预计155.7亿美元，同比增长26.7%</li><li><b>其他产品收益</b>：78.3亿美元对比。预计77.9亿美元，同比增长24%</li><li><b>Mac收入</b>：91亿美元vs.预计68.6亿美元，同比增长70.1%</li><li><b>iPad收入</b>：78亿美元vs.预计55.8亿美元，同比增长78.9%</li><li><b>毛利率</b>：42.5%vs.估计值39.8%</li></ul>苹果没有就截至6月份的季度的预期发布官方指引。自疫情开始以来，该公司一直没有提供收入指引，理由是存在不确定性。这是苹果连续第二个季度在所有产品类别中实现两位数增长。苹果首席财务官Luca Maestri告诉分析师，该公司预计6月份季度的收入将同比增长两位数，尽管由于全球芯片短缺，该公司面临一些供应短缺。</blockquote></p><p>Apple has said in the past months that its business has been boosted by the pandemic as consumers&nbsp;and businesses&nbsp;bought&nbsp;computers&nbsp;to work and entertain themselves while at home. But Apple’s strong results in the quarter suggest that the trend may persist as more economies&nbsp;open up.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在过去几个月表示，随着消费者和企业购买电脑在家工作和娱乐，其业务受到了疫情的提振。但苹果本季度的强劲业绩表明，随着更多经济体的开放，这一趋势可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p>Or, as Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a statement: “This quarter reflects both the enduring ways our products have helped our users meet this&nbsp;moment in their own lives, as well as the optimism consumers seem to feel about better days&nbsp;ahead for all of us.”</p><p><blockquote>或者，正如苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)在一份声明中所说：“本季度既反映了我们的产品帮助用户在自己的生活中迎接这一时刻的持久方式，也反映了消费者似乎对所有人未来更好的日子感到乐观。我们。”</blockquote></p><p>Mac sales were up 70%, and Cook said that the result was “fueled by” the company’s introduction of its Mac&nbsp;laptops&nbsp;that used its own M1 chips&nbsp;for longer battery life, instead of processors sold by&nbsp;Intel.&nbsp;iPad sales were up&nbsp;nearly 79% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>Mac的销量增长了70%，库克表示，这一结果是由该公司推出的Mac笔记本电脑“推动”的，这些笔记本电脑使用了自己的M1芯片，电池寿命更长，而不是英特尔销售的处理器，iPad的销量同比增长了近79%。</blockquote></p><p>Neither of those&nbsp;results&nbsp;include iPad Pro or iMac models the company announced in March, which are expected to drive additional demand.</p><p><blockquote>这两个结果都不包括该公司3月份宣布的iPad Pro或iMac型号，预计这些型号将推动额外需求。</blockquote></p><p>“We’re seeing strong first-time buyers on the Mac&nbsp;…&nbsp;it continues to run just south of 50%,” Cook told CNBC’s Josh Lipton. “And, in China, it’s even higher than that&nbsp;…&nbsp;it’s more around two-thirds. And that speaks to people preferring to work on the Mac.”</p><p><blockquote>库克对CNBC的乔什·利普顿(Josh Lipton)表示：“我们看到Mac的首次购买者数量强劲……这一比例继续略低于50%。”“而且，在中国，这个数字甚至更高……大约是三分之二。这表明人们更喜欢在Mac上工作。”</blockquote></p><p>Apple’s iPhone also reported strong results this quarter, quelling fears that the current annual cycle could slow down. Last year, Apple released iPhones with a new exterior design and 5G support, which many investors believed could prompt a major upgrade cycle, which this quarter’s results indicate.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone本季度也公布了强劲的业绩，平息了人们对当前年度周期可能放缓的担忧。去年，苹果发布了具有新外观设计和5G支持的iPhone，许多投资者认为这可能会引发一个重大升级周期，本季度的业绩表明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>In greater China, which includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan,&nbsp;Apple’s revenue increased over&nbsp;87% year-over-year to $17.73 billion, although the comparison is to a quarter last year in which China was largely shut down in the early days of the pandemic.&nbsp;Every other geographical category, including the Americas and Europe, were also up on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>在包括大陆、香港和台湾在内的大中华区，苹果的收入同比增长超过87%，达到177.3亿美元，尽管相比之下，去年中国在疫情初期基本上处于关闭状态。其他所有地理类别，包括美洲和欧洲，也同比增长。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a8b45c92174e3c9ab224d9a85f5e2d\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Apple’s&nbsp;high-margin&nbsp;services business, including iCloud, App Store, and subscriptions like Apple Music, also showed 26.7% growth.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的高利润服务业务，包括iCloud、App Store和苹果音乐等订阅业务，也实现了26.7%的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>One metric that Apple uses to show the growth in services is the number of subscriptions it has, which not only include its own subscriptions like Apple One, but also subscriptions through its App Store.</p><p><blockquote>苹果用来显示服务增长的一个指标是其订阅数量，其中不仅包括苹果One等自有订阅，还包括通过其App Store进行的订阅。</blockquote></p><p>“We now have over 660 million paid subscriptions across the services on the platform, and that’s up 40 million from the previous quarter, which is an acceleration from 35 million,” Cook told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>库克对CNBC表示：“我们平台上的服务现在有超过6.6亿付费订阅，比上一季度增加了4000万，比3500万有所增长。”</blockquote></p><p>However, Apple’s App Store has been challenged by lawmakers and companies that say it costs too much and has too much power. A closely-watched trial with Fortnite maker Epic Games over App Store policies kicks off next week.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果的应用商店受到了立法者和公司的挑战，他们说它成本太高，权力太大。堡垒之夜制造商Epic Games就App Store政策进行的备受关注的审判将于下周开始。</blockquote></p><p>“The App Store has been an economic miracle. Last year, the estimates are that there was over a half a trillion dollars of economic activity because of the store. And, so, this has been just an economic gamechanger for not only the United States, but several countries around the world. And, we’re going to go in and tell our story. And we’ll see where it goes. But, we’re confident,” Cook told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>“App Store是一个经济奇迹。据估计，去年有超过5000亿美元的经济活动因为这个商店。所以，这不仅是美国的经济游戏规则改变者，也是世界上几个国家的经济规则改变者。我们将走进去讲述我们的故事。我们会看到它会走向何方。但是，我们有信心，”库克告诉CNBC。</blockquote></p><p>Apple’s gross margin was also unusually elevated for the company. Most quarters, it tends to be in the 38% to 39% range, but in the quarter ending in March, Apple reported 42.5% margins.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的毛利率也异常高。大多数季度，利润率往往在38%至39%之间，但在截至3月份的季度，苹果报告利润率为42.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple reports another blowout quarter with sales up 54%, authorizes $90 billion in share buybacks<blockquote>苹果报告又一个井喷季度销售额增长54%，授权900亿美元股票回购</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple reports another blowout quarter with sales up 54%, authorizes $90 billion in share buybacks<blockquote>苹果报告又一个井喷季度销售额增长54%，授权900亿美元股票回购</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-29 07:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Apple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and&nbsp;significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.</li><li>Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June.</li><li>Apple authorized $90 billion in share buybacks.</li></ul>Apple&nbsp;reported&nbsp;a blowout quarter&nbsp;on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and&nbsp;significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果周三公布了井喷季度业绩，宣布全公司销售额比去年增长54%，利润明显强于华尔街预期。</li><li>苹果没有就截至6月份的季度的预期发布官方指引。</li><li>苹果授权900亿美元的股票回购。</li></ul>苹果周三公布了井喷季度业绩，宣布全公司销售额比去年增长54%，利润明显强于华尔街预期。</blockquote></p><p>Apple stock rose over 4% at one point in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在盘后交易中一度上涨超过4%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e791f63f460807906f1793c2d58933e\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Apple reported double-digit growth in every single one of its product categories, and its&nbsp;most important product line, the iPhone, was up 65.5% from last year. Its Mac and iPad sales&nbsp;did&nbsp;better, with its computers up 70.1% and iPad&nbsp;sales&nbsp;growing nearly 79% on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>苹果报告称，其每个产品类别都实现了两位数的增长，其最重要的产品线iPhone比去年增长了65.5%。其Mac和iPad销量表现更好，电脑销量同比增长70.1%，iPad销量同比增长近79%。</blockquote></p><p>Apple said it would increase its dividend by 7%&nbsp;to $0.22 per share&nbsp;and authorized $90 billion in share buybacks, which is significantly higher than last year’s $50 billion outlay&nbsp;and 2019′s $75 billion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果表示，将把股息提高7%至每股0.22美元，并授权900亿美元的股票回购，这明显高于去年的500亿美元支出和2019年的750亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Here’s how Apple did versus Refinitiv estimates:</p><p><blockquote>以下是苹果与Refinitiv估计的表现：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>EPS</b>:&nbsp;$1.40&nbsp;vs. $0.99 estimated</li><li><b>Revenue</b>:&nbsp;$89.58&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $77.36&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 53.7% year-over-year</li><li><b>iPhone revenue</b>:&nbsp;$47.94 billion&nbsp;vs. $41.43&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up&nbsp;65.5% year-over-year</li><li><b>Services revenue</b>:&nbsp;$16.90 billion&nbsp;vs. $15.57&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 26.7% year over&nbsp;year</li><li><b>Other Products revenue</b>:&nbsp;$7.83&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $7.79&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated,&nbsp;up 24%&nbsp;year-over-year</li><li><b>Mac revenue</b>:&nbsp;$9.10&nbsp;billion&nbsp;vs. $6.86&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 70.1% year-over-year</li><li><b>iPad revenue</b>:&nbsp;$7.80 billion&nbsp;vs. $5.58&nbsp;billion&nbsp;estimated, up 78.9% year-over-year</li><li><b>Gross margin</b>:&nbsp;42.5% vs. 39.8%&nbsp;estimated</li></ul>Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June. It hasn’t provided revenue&nbsp;guidance since the start of the pandemic, citing uncertainty.&nbsp;This is Apple’s second quarter in a row with double-digit growth in all product categories.&nbsp;Apple CFO Luca Maestri told analysts that the company expects June quarter revenue to rise by double digits year-over-year, although it faces some supply shortages due to the worldwide chip shortage.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>EPS</b>：1.40美元对比。估计0.99美元</li><li><b>收入</b>：895.8亿美元对比。预计773.6亿美元，同比增长53.7%</li><li><b>iPhone收入</b>：479.4亿美元对比。预计为414.3亿美元，同比增长65.5%</li><li><b>服务收入</b>：169亿美元vs.预计155.7亿美元，同比增长26.7%</li><li><b>其他产品收益</b>：78.3亿美元对比。预计77.9亿美元，同比增长24%</li><li><b>Mac收入</b>：91亿美元vs.预计68.6亿美元，同比增长70.1%</li><li><b>iPad收入</b>：78亿美元vs.预计55.8亿美元，同比增长78.9%</li><li><b>毛利率</b>：42.5%vs.估计值39.8%</li></ul>苹果没有就截至6月份的季度的预期发布官方指引。自疫情开始以来，该公司一直没有提供收入指引，理由是存在不确定性。这是苹果连续第二个季度在所有产品类别中实现两位数增长。苹果首席财务官Luca Maestri告诉分析师，该公司预计6月份季度的收入将同比增长两位数，尽管由于全球芯片短缺，该公司面临一些供应短缺。</blockquote></p><p>Apple has said in the past months that its business has been boosted by the pandemic as consumers&nbsp;and businesses&nbsp;bought&nbsp;computers&nbsp;to work and entertain themselves while at home. But Apple’s strong results in the quarter suggest that the trend may persist as more economies&nbsp;open up.</p><p><blockquote>苹果在过去几个月表示，随着消费者和企业购买电脑在家工作和娱乐，其业务受到了疫情的提振。但苹果本季度的强劲业绩表明，随着更多经济体的开放，这一趋势可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p>Or, as Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a statement: “This quarter reflects both the enduring ways our products have helped our users meet this&nbsp;moment in their own lives, as well as the optimism consumers seem to feel about better days&nbsp;ahead for all of us.”</p><p><blockquote>或者，正如苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)在一份声明中所说：“本季度既反映了我们的产品帮助用户在自己的生活中迎接这一时刻的持久方式，也反映了消费者似乎对所有人未来更好的日子感到乐观。我们。”</blockquote></p><p>Mac sales were up 70%, and Cook said that the result was “fueled by” the company’s introduction of its Mac&nbsp;laptops&nbsp;that used its own M1 chips&nbsp;for longer battery life, instead of processors sold by&nbsp;Intel.&nbsp;iPad sales were up&nbsp;nearly 79% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>Mac的销量增长了70%，库克表示，这一结果是由该公司推出的Mac笔记本电脑“推动”的，这些笔记本电脑使用了自己的M1芯片，电池寿命更长，而不是英特尔销售的处理器，iPad的销量同比增长了近79%。</blockquote></p><p>Neither of those&nbsp;results&nbsp;include iPad Pro or iMac models the company announced in March, which are expected to drive additional demand.</p><p><blockquote>这两个结果都不包括该公司3月份宣布的iPad Pro或iMac型号，预计这些型号将推动额外需求。</blockquote></p><p>“We’re seeing strong first-time buyers on the Mac&nbsp;…&nbsp;it continues to run just south of 50%,” Cook told CNBC’s Josh Lipton. “And, in China, it’s even higher than that&nbsp;…&nbsp;it’s more around two-thirds. And that speaks to people preferring to work on the Mac.”</p><p><blockquote>库克对CNBC的乔什·利普顿(Josh Lipton)表示：“我们看到Mac的首次购买者数量强劲……这一比例继续略低于50%。”“而且，在中国，这个数字甚至更高……大约是三分之二。这表明人们更喜欢在Mac上工作。”</blockquote></p><p>Apple’s iPhone also reported strong results this quarter, quelling fears that the current annual cycle could slow down. Last year, Apple released iPhones with a new exterior design and 5G support, which many investors believed could prompt a major upgrade cycle, which this quarter’s results indicate.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone本季度也公布了强劲的业绩，平息了人们对当前年度周期可能放缓的担忧。去年，苹果发布了具有新外观设计和5G支持的iPhone，许多投资者认为这可能会引发一个重大升级周期，本季度的业绩表明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>In greater China, which includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan,&nbsp;Apple’s revenue increased over&nbsp;87% year-over-year to $17.73 billion, although the comparison is to a quarter last year in which China was largely shut down in the early days of the pandemic.&nbsp;Every other geographical category, including the Americas and Europe, were also up on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>在包括大陆、香港和台湾在内的大中华区，苹果的收入同比增长超过87%，达到177.3亿美元，尽管相比之下，去年中国在疫情初期基本上处于关闭状态。其他所有地理类别，包括美洲和欧洲，也同比增长。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a8b45c92174e3c9ab224d9a85f5e2d\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Apple’s&nbsp;high-margin&nbsp;services business, including iCloud, App Store, and subscriptions like Apple Music, also showed 26.7% growth.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的高利润服务业务，包括iCloud、App Store和苹果音乐等订阅业务，也实现了26.7%的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>One metric that Apple uses to show the growth in services is the number of subscriptions it has, which not only include its own subscriptions like Apple One, but also subscriptions through its App Store.</p><p><blockquote>苹果用来显示服务增长的一个指标是其订阅数量，其中不仅包括苹果One等自有订阅，还包括通过其App Store进行的订阅。</blockquote></p><p>“We now have over 660 million paid subscriptions across the services on the platform, and that’s up 40 million from the previous quarter, which is an acceleration from 35 million,” Cook told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>库克对CNBC表示：“我们平台上的服务现在有超过6.6亿付费订阅，比上一季度增加了4000万，比3500万有所增长。”</blockquote></p><p>However, Apple’s App Store has been challenged by lawmakers and companies that say it costs too much and has too much power. A closely-watched trial with Fortnite maker Epic Games over App Store policies kicks off next week.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果的应用商店受到了立法者和公司的挑战，他们说它成本太高，权力太大。堡垒之夜制造商Epic Games就App Store政策进行的备受关注的审判将于下周开始。</blockquote></p><p>“The App Store has been an economic miracle. Last year, the estimates are that there was over a half a trillion dollars of economic activity because of the store. And, so, this has been just an economic gamechanger for not only the United States, but several countries around the world. And, we’re going to go in and tell our story. And we’ll see where it goes. But, we’re confident,” Cook told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>“App Store是一个经济奇迹。据估计，去年有超过5000亿美元的经济活动因为这个商店。所以，这不仅是美国的经济游戏规则改变者，也是世界上几个国家的经济规则改变者。我们将走进去讲述我们的故事。我们会看到它会走向何方。但是，我们有信心，”库克告诉CNBC。</blockquote></p><p>Apple’s gross margin was also unusually elevated for the company. Most quarters, it tends to be in the 38% to 39% range, but in the quarter ending in March, Apple reported 42.5% margins.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的毛利率也异常高。大多数季度，利润率往往在38%至39%之间，但在截至3月份的季度，苹果报告利润率为42.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137964402","content_text":"KEY POINTSApple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.Apple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June.Apple authorized $90 billion in share buybacks.Apple reported a blowout quarter on Wednesday, announcing companywide sales up 54% higher than last year, and significantly stronger profits than Wall Street expected.Apple stock rose over 4% at one point in extended trading.Apple reported double-digit growth in every single one of its product categories, and its most important product line, the iPhone, was up 65.5% from last year. Its Mac and iPad sales did better, with its computers up 70.1% and iPad sales growing nearly 79% on an annual basis.Apple said it would increase its dividend by 7% to $0.22 per share and authorized $90 billion in share buybacks, which is significantly higher than last year’s $50 billion outlay and 2019′s $75 billion.Here’s how Apple did versus Refinitiv estimates:EPS: $1.40 vs. $0.99 estimatedRevenue: $89.58 billion vs. $77.36 billion estimated, up 53.7% year-over-yeariPhone revenue: $47.94 billion vs. $41.43 billion estimated, up 65.5% year-over-yearServices revenue: $16.90 billion vs. $15.57 billion estimated, up 26.7% year over yearOther Products revenue: $7.83 billion vs. $7.79 billion estimated, up 24% year-over-yearMac revenue: $9.10 billion vs. $6.86 billion estimated, up 70.1% year-over-yeariPad revenue: $7.80 billion vs. $5.58 billion estimated, up 78.9% year-over-yearGross margin: 42.5% vs. 39.8% estimatedApple did not issue official guidance for what it expects in the quarter ending in June. It hasn’t provided revenue guidance since the start of the pandemic, citing uncertainty. This is Apple’s second quarter in a row with double-digit growth in all product categories. Apple CFO Luca Maestri told analysts that the company expects June quarter revenue to rise by double digits year-over-year, although it faces some supply shortages due to the worldwide chip shortage.Apple has said in the past months that its business has been boosted by the pandemic as consumers and businesses bought computers to work and entertain themselves while at home. But Apple’s strong results in the quarter suggest that the trend may persist as more economies open up.Or, as Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a statement: “This quarter reflects both the enduring ways our products have helped our users meet this moment in their own lives, as well as the optimism consumers seem to feel about better days ahead for all of us.”Mac sales were up 70%, and Cook said that the result was “fueled by” the company’s introduction of its Mac laptops that used its own M1 chips for longer battery life, instead of processors sold by Intel. iPad sales were up nearly 79% year-over-year.Neither of those results include iPad Pro or iMac models the company announced in March, which are expected to drive additional demand.“We’re seeing strong first-time buyers on the Mac … it continues to run just south of 50%,” Cook told CNBC’s Josh Lipton. “And, in China, it’s even higher than that … it’s more around two-thirds. And that speaks to people preferring to work on the Mac.”Apple’s iPhone also reported strong results this quarter, quelling fears that the current annual cycle could slow down. Last year, Apple released iPhones with a new exterior design and 5G support, which many investors believed could prompt a major upgrade cycle, which this quarter’s results indicate.In greater China, which includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, Apple’s revenue increased over 87% year-over-year to $17.73 billion, although the comparison is to a quarter last year in which China was largely shut down in the early days of the pandemic. Every other geographical category, including the Americas and Europe, were also up on an annual basis.Apple’s high-margin services business, including iCloud, App Store, and subscriptions like Apple Music, also showed 26.7% growth.One metric that Apple uses to show the growth in services is the number of subscriptions it has, which not only include its own subscriptions like Apple One, but also subscriptions through its App Store.“We now have over 660 million paid subscriptions across the services on the platform, and that’s up 40 million from the previous quarter, which is an acceleration from 35 million,” Cook told CNBC.However, Apple’s App Store has been challenged by lawmakers and companies that say it costs too much and has too much power. A closely-watched trial with Fortnite maker Epic Games over App Store policies kicks off next week.“The App Store has been an economic miracle. Last year, the estimates are that there was over a half a trillion dollars of economic activity because of the store. And, so, this has been just an economic gamechanger for not only the United States, but several countries around the world. And, we’re going to go in and tell our story. And we’ll see where it goes. But, we’re confident,” Cook told CNBC.Apple’s gross margin was also unusually elevated for the company. Most quarters, it tends to be in the 38% to 39% range, but in the quarter ending in March, Apple reported 42.5% margins.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104206571,"gmtCreate":1620391144593,"gmtModify":1634205586346,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment pls","listText":"Comment pls","text":"Comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104206571","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157328258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103008297,"gmtCreate":1619737230219,"gmtModify":1634210395800,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Even central banks have changed. Allan Greenspan would have called it irrational exuberance!","listText":"Even central banks have changed. Allan Greenspan would have called it irrational exuberance!","text":"Even central banks have changed. Allan Greenspan would have called it irrational exuberance!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103008297","repostId":"1148135171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148135171","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619709572,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148135171?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell: Financial system not threatened by 'frothy' asset valuations<blockquote>鲍威尔：金融体系没有受到“泡沫”资产估值的威胁</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148135171","media":"Yahoo","summary":"Theretail-driven run-upinGamestopand thememeificationofcryptocurrency Dogecoinare not of concern to ","content":"<p>Theretail-driven run-upinGamestopand thememeificationofcryptocurrency Dogecoinare not of concern to the nation’s central bank, its chief said Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>该国央行行长周三表示，零售驱动的暴涨和加密货币狗狗币的主题化并不引起该国央行的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters some asset valuations appear “frothy,” but did not see any risks that may hurt the financial system.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔对记者表示，一些资产估值似乎存在“泡沫”，但没有看到任何可能损害金融体系的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “The overall financial stability picture is mixed, but on balance it’s manageable,” Powell said Wednesday in response to a question from Yahoo Finance.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔周三在回答雅虎财经的问题时表示：“整体金融稳定情况好坏参半，但总的来说是可控的。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell added that the broad run-up in market prices may be linked in part to the central bank’s easy money policies, but said optimism over getting to a post-pandemic world is the main driver.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔补充说，市场价格的广泛上涨可能部分与央行的宽松货币政策有关，但他表示，对进入大流行后世界的乐观情绪是主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> “It has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and re-opening of the economy — that's really what has been moving markets a lot in the last few months,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“这与疫苗接种和经济重新开放有很大关系——这确实是过去几个月市场发生很大变化的原因。”</blockquote></p><p> Asked about the meme stock phenomenon in late-January, Powell similarly declined to speak to specific markets but said that asset values were broadly being driven by rising economic optimism.</p><p><blockquote>当被问及一月下旬的模因股票现象时，鲍威尔同样拒绝谈论具体市场，但表示资产价值在很大程度上是由经济乐观情绪上升推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have gained more than 10% each, repeatedly breaking through new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>年初至今，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数涨幅均超过10%，屡屡突破历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell’s remarks make it clear that the central bank feels comfortable running with its aggressively accommodative monetary policy. In addition to near-zero short-term interest rates, the Fed has also been absorbing $120 billion a month in U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔的言论清楚地表明，央行对其积极宽松的货币政策感到满意。除了接近于零的短期利率，美联储还一直在每月吸收1200亿美元的美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券。</blockquote></p><p> The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesdaykept both of those policy measures unchanged. Powell told reporters in the afternoon that the Fed remains a “long way” from raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会周三维持这两项政策措施不变。鲍威尔下午对记者表示，美联储距离加息还有“很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said the central bank is still keeping an eye on some financial stability risks, adding that rising home prices are catching some attention.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示，央行仍在关注一些金融稳定风险，并补充说房价上涨引起了一些关注。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price indexreached a 15-year high in February, according to data released Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>根据周二公布的数据，S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller全国房价指数2月份达到15年来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said the higher prices are due to constraints on supply, with homebuilders unable to keep up with demand. He added that he does not see financial stability concerns in those prices, despite their history with triggering previous crises in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示，价格上涨是由于供应限制，房屋建筑商无法满足需求。他补充说，尽管这些价格曾引发美国之前的危机，但他并不认为这些价格会引发金融稳定问题。</blockquote></p><p> “We really don’t see that here,” Powell said Wednesday. “We don’t see bad loans and unsustainable prices and that kind of thing.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们在这里真的没有看到这一点，”鲍威尔周三表示。“我们没有看到不良贷款和不可持续的价格之类的事情。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1584348713084","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell: Financial system not threatened by 'frothy' asset valuations<blockquote>鲍威尔：金融体系没有受到“泡沫”资产估值的威胁</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell: Financial system not threatened by 'frothy' asset valuations<blockquote>鲍威尔：金融体系没有受到“泡沫”资产估值的威胁</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 23:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Theretail-driven run-upinGamestopand thememeificationofcryptocurrency Dogecoinare not of concern to the nation’s central bank, its chief said Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>该国央行行长周三表示，零售驱动的暴涨和加密货币狗狗币的主题化并不引起该国央行的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters some asset valuations appear “frothy,” but did not see any risks that may hurt the financial system.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔对记者表示，一些资产估值似乎存在“泡沫”，但没有看到任何可能损害金融体系的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “The overall financial stability picture is mixed, but on balance it’s manageable,” Powell said Wednesday in response to a question from Yahoo Finance.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔周三在回答雅虎财经的问题时表示：“整体金融稳定情况好坏参半，但总的来说是可控的。”</blockquote></p><p> Powell added that the broad run-up in market prices may be linked in part to the central bank’s easy money policies, but said optimism over getting to a post-pandemic world is the main driver.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔补充说，市场价格的广泛上涨可能部分与央行的宽松货币政策有关，但他表示，对进入大流行后世界的乐观情绪是主要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> “It has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and re-opening of the economy — that's really what has been moving markets a lot in the last few months,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“这与疫苗接种和经济重新开放有很大关系——这确实是过去几个月市场发生很大变化的原因。”</blockquote></p><p> Asked about the meme stock phenomenon in late-January, Powell similarly declined to speak to specific markets but said that asset values were broadly being driven by rising economic optimism.</p><p><blockquote>当被问及一月下旬的模因股票现象时，鲍威尔同样拒绝谈论具体市场，但表示资产价值在很大程度上是由经济乐观情绪上升推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have gained more than 10% each, repeatedly breaking through new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>年初至今，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数涨幅均超过10%，屡屡突破历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell’s remarks make it clear that the central bank feels comfortable running with its aggressively accommodative monetary policy. In addition to near-zero short-term interest rates, the Fed has also been absorbing $120 billion a month in U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔的言论清楚地表明，央行对其积极宽松的货币政策感到满意。除了接近于零的短期利率，美联储还一直在每月吸收1200亿美元的美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券。</blockquote></p><p> The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesdaykept both of those policy measures unchanged. Powell told reporters in the afternoon that the Fed remains a “long way” from raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会周三维持这两项政策措施不变。鲍威尔下午对记者表示，美联储距离加息还有“很长的路要走”。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said the central bank is still keeping an eye on some financial stability risks, adding that rising home prices are catching some attention.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示，央行仍在关注一些金融稳定风险，并补充说房价上涨引起了一些关注。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price indexreached a 15-year high in February, according to data released Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>根据周二公布的数据，S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller全国房价指数2月份达到15年来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said the higher prices are due to constraints on supply, with homebuilders unable to keep up with demand. He added that he does not see financial stability concerns in those prices, despite their history with triggering previous crises in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示，价格上涨是由于供应限制，房屋建筑商无法满足需求。他补充说，尽管这些价格曾引发美国之前的危机，但他并不认为这些价格会引发金融稳定问题。</blockquote></p><p> “We really don’t see that here,” Powell said Wednesday. “We don’t see bad loans and unsustainable prices and that kind of thing.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们在这里真的没有看到这一点，”鲍威尔周三表示。“我们没有看到不良贷款和不可持续的价格之类的事情。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-financial-system-not-threatened-by-frothy-asset-valuations-205533333.html\">Yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-financial-system-not-threatened-by-frothy-asset-valuations-205533333.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148135171","content_text":"Theretail-driven run-upinGamestopand thememeificationofcryptocurrency Dogecoinare not of concern to the nation’s central bank, its chief said Wednesday.\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters some asset valuations appear “frothy,” but did not see any risks that may hurt the financial system.\n“The overall financial stability picture is mixed, but on balance it’s manageable,” Powell said Wednesday in response to a question from Yahoo Finance.\nPowell added that the broad run-up in market prices may be linked in part to the central bank’s easy money policies, but said optimism over getting to a post-pandemic world is the main driver.\n“It has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and re-opening of the economy — that's really what has been moving markets a lot in the last few months,” Powell said.\nAsked about the meme stock phenomenon in late-January, Powell similarly declined to speak to specific markets but said that asset values were broadly being driven by rising economic optimism.\nYear-to-date, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have gained more than 10% each, repeatedly breaking through new all-time highs.\nOther risks\nPowell’s remarks make it clear that the central bank feels comfortable running with its aggressively accommodative monetary policy. In addition to near-zero short-term interest rates, the Fed has also been absorbing $120 billion a month in U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities.\nThe policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesdaykept both of those policy measures unchanged. Powell told reporters in the afternoon that the Fed remains a “long way” from raising rates.\nPowell said the central bank is still keeping an eye on some financial stability risks, adding that rising home prices are catching some attention.\nThe S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price indexreached a 15-year high in February, according to data released Tuesday.\nPowell said the higher prices are due to constraints on supply, with homebuilders unable to keep up with demand. He added that he does not see financial stability concerns in those prices, despite their history with triggering previous crises in the U.S.\n“We really don’t see that here,” Powell said Wednesday. “We don’t see bad loans and unsustainable prices and that kind of thing.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103007839,"gmtCreate":1619737471121,"gmtModify":1631885931892,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMRS\">$Amyris(AMRS)$</a>sell down today hurts!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMRS\">$Amyris(AMRS)$</a>sell down today hurts!","text":"$Amyris(AMRS)$sell down today hurts!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8ddce2822b6d0839660477be591b87","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103007839","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104208431,"gmtCreate":1620391092723,"gmtModify":1634205586808,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It is probably the most boring company&nbsp;","listText":"It is probably the most boring company&nbsp;","text":"It is probably the most boring company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104208431","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157328258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106608919,"gmtCreate":1620106745331,"gmtModify":1634207748610,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please!","listText":"Like and comment please!","text":"Like and comment please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106608919","repostId":"1147234999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108780190,"gmtCreate":1620054511310,"gmtModify":1634208178055,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls comment!","listText":"Pls comment!","text":"Pls comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108780190","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135819410?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-03 07:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步","PFE":"辉瑞","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GM":"通用汽车",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TMUS":0.9,"VIACP":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103003793,"gmtCreate":1619737134312,"gmtModify":1631884231733,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment!$AMZN Q1 EPS $15.79 Beats $9.54 Estimate Sales $108.50B Beat $104.46B EstimateSees Q2 Sales $110B-$116B vs $108.7B EstimateBig beats across the board - HOLY CRAPOLA","listText":"Pls like and comment!$AMZN Q1 EPS $15.79 Beats $9.54 Estimate Sales $108.50B Beat $104.46B EstimateSees Q2 Sales $110B-$116B vs $108.7B EstimateBig beats across the board - HOLY CRAPOLA","text":"Pls like and comment!$AMZN Q1 EPS $15.79 Beats $9.54 Estimate Sales $108.50B Beat $104.46B EstimateSees Q2 Sales $110B-$116B vs $108.7B EstimateBig beats across the board - HOLY CRAPOLA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103003793","repostId":"1188611661","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188611661","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619734487,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188611661?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-30 06:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon sales surge 44% as it smashes earnings expectations<blockquote>亚马逊销售额飙升44%，超出盈利预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188611661","media":"CNBC","summary":"Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.\nThe company ","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.</li>  <li>The company confirmed that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year over year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter.</li> </ul> Amazonshares climbed more than 3.5% in extended trading Thursday after the company&nbsp;released&nbsp;its first-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and revenue.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊周四发布的第一季度业绩超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>该公司确认，今年的Prime Day将于6月举行，这可能有助于第二季度收入的同比比较。</li></ul>亚马逊股价周四在盘后交易中上涨超过3.5%，此前该公司发布了第一季度财报，超出了华尔街对盈利和收入的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798d7f0536203d2ae33b543f4dabf204\" tg-width=\"1281\" tg-height=\"591\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the e-commerce giant fared, relative to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是这家电子商务巨头相对于Refinitiv编制的分析师估计的表现：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$15.79 per share vs. $9.54 per share expected</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$108.52 billion vs. $104.47 billion expected</li> </ul> Few companies have benefited from the pandemic-fueled surge of online shoppingas much as Amazon. Its first-quarter results showed the company’s business continues to be buoyed by the pandemic, with sales soaring 44% year-over-year to $108.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股15.79美元，预期每股9.54美元</li><li><b>收入：</b>1,085.2亿美元，预期为1,044.7亿美元</li></ul>很少有公司像亚马逊那样从大流行推动的在线购物激增中受益。其第一季度业绩显示，该公司的业务继续受到疫情的提振，销售额同比飙升44%至1085亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon’s guidance for the second quarter implies that it expects the momentum to continue, which should help allay investor fears that business could slow in a post-pandemic environment. The company expects to post revenue between $110 billion and $116 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s projection $108.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊对第二季度的指引暗示，预计这一势头将持续下去，这应该有助于减轻投资者对大流行后环境下业务可能放缓的担忧。该公司预计营收将在1100亿美元至1160亿美元之间，超过华尔街预测的1086亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, Amazon confirmed in its guidance that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year-over-year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter. Typically, Amazon’s annual, two-day discount bonanza takes place in July, but the company postponed the event to October last year amid pandemic-related uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，亚马逊在其指引中确认，今年的Prime Day将于6月举行，这可能有助于第二季度收入的同比比较。通常情况下，亚马逊一年一度为期两天的折扣活动在7月举行，但由于与大流行相关的不确定性，该公司去年将活动推迟到了10月。</blockquote></p><p> When asked about the Prime Day timing, CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with investors: “In many areas, July is vacation month, so it might be better for customers, sellers and vendors to experiment with a different time period. We believe that it might be better timing later in [the second quarter], so that’s what we’re testing this year.”</p><p><blockquote>当被问及Prime Day的时间安排时，首席财务官Brian Olsavsky在与投资者的看涨期权上表示：“在许多地区，7月是假期月，因此客户、卖家和供应商尝试不同的时间段可能会更好。我们相信，[第二季度]晚些时候可能是更好的时机，所以这就是我们今年测试的。”</blockquote></p><p> Outside of its core retail segment, Amazon’s cloud-computing and advertising businesses continue to boom. Amazon Web Servicessawnet sales of $13.5 billion during the quarter, up 32% year over year. Amazon doesn’t disclose advertising sales, but it’s included in the company’s “Other” category, which saw its revenues grow 77% year over year to $6.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>除了核心零售部门之外，亚马逊的云计算和广告业务继续蓬勃发展。亚马逊网络服务本季度净销售额为135亿美元，同比增长32%。亚马逊没有披露广告销售额，但它包含在该公司的“其他”类别中，该类别的收入同比增长77%，达到69亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos also gave a rare glimpse into how the company’s streaming business has fared during the pandemic, as stuck-at-home consumers relied on online entertainment to keep busy. “As Prime Video turns 10, over 175 million Prime members have streamed shows and movies in the past year, and streaming hours are up more than 70% year over year,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯还罕见地介绍了亚马逊流媒体业务在疫情期间的表现，因为被困在家里的消费者依靠在线娱乐来保持忙碌。“随着Prime Video迎来10周年，过去一年有超过1.75亿Prime会员观看了节目和电影，流媒体播放时间同比增长了70%以上，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon’s streaming service, Prime Video, is a key offering of the company’s Prime subscription service, which costs $119 a year and includes a range of other benefits like free, two-day shipping. Bezos disclosed earlier this month that the company now has 200 million Prime subscribers, 50 million more than it had at the start of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的流媒体服务Prime Video是该公司Prime订阅服务的一项关键产品，该服务每年收费119美元，并包括一系列其他福利，例如免费两天送货。贝佐斯本月早些时候透露，该公司目前拥有2亿Prime用户，比2020年初增加了5000万。</blockquote></p><p> Physical stores revenue, which includes Whole Foods Market and other brick-and-mortar offerings like Amazon Books, continued to fall. Sales slumped 16% to $3.9 billion. The category excludes online delivery, Olsavsky said.</p><p><blockquote>实体店收入，包括全食超市和亚马逊图书等其他实体产品，继续下降。销售额下降16%至39亿美元。奥尔萨夫斯基说，该类别不包括在线交付。</blockquote></p><p> During the quarter, Amazon’s sales grew faster internationally than they did in North America. International revenue surged 60% year over year, more than any other segment, while North America revenue climbed 40%.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，亚马逊的国际销售额增长速度快于北美。国际收入同比飙升60%，超过任何其他细分市场，而北美收入则增长40%。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, Amazon will incur fewer costs this year related to coronavirus safety measures. Operating income is forecast to be between $4.5 billion and $8 billion in the second quarter, assuming $1.5 billion of costs related to Covid-19. That’s in line with what Amazon executives predicted last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，亚马逊今年与冠状病毒安全措施相关的成本将会减少。假设与Covid-19相关的成本为15亿美元，预计第二季度营业收入将在45亿美元至80亿美元之间。这与亚马逊高管上季度的预测一致。</blockquote></p><p> AmazonsaidWednesday it would spend more than $1 billion on raising wages for over half a million of its U.S. operations workers. On a call with reporters, Olsavsky said it decided to move up the pay increase from the fall to this spring as volumes remain just as strong as they were at the beginning of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊周三表示，将斥资超过10亿美元为超过50万美国运营员工提高工资。奥尔萨夫斯基在与记者的看涨期权上表示，由于销量仍然与大流行开始时一样强劲，公司决定将加薪从秋季提前到今年春季。</blockquote></p><p> Olsavsky declined to comment on Amazon’s CEO transition plans, which will come into play once Bezossteps down in the third quarter. Bezos will turn the helm over to AWS CEO Andy Jassy and assume the role of executive chairman of Amazon’s board.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔萨夫斯基拒绝就亚马逊首席执行官过渡计划发表评论，该计划将在贝佐斯第三季度卸任后发挥作用。贝佐斯将把掌舵权移交给AWS首席执行官安迪·贾西，并担任亚马逊董事会执行主席。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1609915699154","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon sales surge 44% as it smashes earnings expectations<blockquote>亚马逊销售额飙升44%，超出盈利预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon sales surge 44% as it smashes earnings expectations<blockquote>亚马逊销售额飙升44%，超出盈利预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNBC</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-30 06:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.</li>  <li>The company confirmed that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year over year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter.</li> </ul> Amazonshares climbed more than 3.5% in extended trading Thursday after the company&nbsp;released&nbsp;its first-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and revenue.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊周四发布的第一季度业绩超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>该公司确认，今年的Prime Day将于6月举行，这可能有助于第二季度收入的同比比较。</li></ul>亚马逊股价周四在盘后交易中上涨超过3.5%，此前该公司发布了第一季度财报，超出了华尔街对盈利和收入的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798d7f0536203d2ae33b543f4dabf204\" tg-width=\"1281\" tg-height=\"591\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the e-commerce giant fared, relative to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p><p><blockquote>以下是这家电子商务巨头相对于Refinitiv编制的分析师估计的表现：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$15.79 per share vs. $9.54 per share expected</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$108.52 billion vs. $104.47 billion expected</li> </ul> Few companies have benefited from the pandemic-fueled surge of online shoppingas much as Amazon. Its first-quarter results showed the company’s business continues to be buoyed by the pandemic, with sales soaring 44% year-over-year to $108.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股15.79美元，预期每股9.54美元</li><li><b>收入：</b>1,085.2亿美元，预期为1,044.7亿美元</li></ul>很少有公司像亚马逊那样从大流行推动的在线购物激增中受益。其第一季度业绩显示，该公司的业务继续受到疫情的提振，销售额同比飙升44%至1085亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon’s guidance for the second quarter implies that it expects the momentum to continue, which should help allay investor fears that business could slow in a post-pandemic environment. The company expects to post revenue between $110 billion and $116 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s projection $108.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊对第二季度的指引暗示，预计这一势头将持续下去，这应该有助于减轻投资者对大流行后环境下业务可能放缓的担忧。该公司预计营收将在1100亿美元至1160亿美元之间，超过华尔街预测的1086亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, Amazon confirmed in its guidance that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year-over-year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter. Typically, Amazon’s annual, two-day discount bonanza takes place in July, but the company postponed the event to October last year amid pandemic-related uncertainty.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，亚马逊在其指引中确认，今年的Prime Day将于6月举行，这可能有助于第二季度收入的同比比较。通常情况下，亚马逊一年一度为期两天的折扣活动在7月举行，但由于与大流行相关的不确定性，该公司去年将活动推迟到了10月。</blockquote></p><p> When asked about the Prime Day timing, CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with investors: “In many areas, July is vacation month, so it might be better for customers, sellers and vendors to experiment with a different time period. We believe that it might be better timing later in [the second quarter], so that’s what we’re testing this year.”</p><p><blockquote>当被问及Prime Day的时间安排时，首席财务官Brian Olsavsky在与投资者的看涨期权上表示：“在许多地区，7月是假期月，因此客户、卖家和供应商尝试不同的时间段可能会更好。我们相信，[第二季度]晚些时候可能是更好的时机，所以这就是我们今年测试的。”</blockquote></p><p> Outside of its core retail segment, Amazon’s cloud-computing and advertising businesses continue to boom. Amazon Web Servicessawnet sales of $13.5 billion during the quarter, up 32% year over year. Amazon doesn’t disclose advertising sales, but it’s included in the company’s “Other” category, which saw its revenues grow 77% year over year to $6.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>除了核心零售部门之外，亚马逊的云计算和广告业务继续蓬勃发展。亚马逊网络服务本季度净销售额为135亿美元，同比增长32%。亚马逊没有披露广告销售额，但它包含在该公司的“其他”类别中，该类别的收入同比增长77%，达到69亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos also gave a rare glimpse into how the company’s streaming business has fared during the pandemic, as stuck-at-home consumers relied on online entertainment to keep busy. “As Prime Video turns 10, over 175 million Prime members have streamed shows and movies in the past year, and streaming hours are up more than 70% year over year,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊首席执行官杰夫·贝索斯还罕见地介绍了亚马逊流媒体业务在疫情期间的表现，因为被困在家里的消费者依靠在线娱乐来保持忙碌。“随着Prime Video迎来10周年，过去一年有超过1.75亿Prime会员观看了节目和电影，流媒体播放时间同比增长了70%以上，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon’s streaming service, Prime Video, is a key offering of the company’s Prime subscription service, which costs $119 a year and includes a range of other benefits like free, two-day shipping. Bezos disclosed earlier this month that the company now has 200 million Prime subscribers, 50 million more than it had at the start of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的流媒体服务Prime Video是该公司Prime订阅服务的一项关键产品，该服务每年收费119美元，并包括一系列其他福利，例如免费两天送货。贝佐斯本月早些时候透露，该公司目前拥有2亿Prime用户，比2020年初增加了5000万。</blockquote></p><p> Physical stores revenue, which includes Whole Foods Market and other brick-and-mortar offerings like Amazon Books, continued to fall. Sales slumped 16% to $3.9 billion. The category excludes online delivery, Olsavsky said.</p><p><blockquote>实体店收入，包括全食超市和亚马逊图书等其他实体产品，继续下降。销售额下降16%至39亿美元。奥尔萨夫斯基说，该类别不包括在线交付。</blockquote></p><p> During the quarter, Amazon’s sales grew faster internationally than they did in North America. International revenue surged 60% year over year, more than any other segment, while North America revenue climbed 40%.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，亚马逊的国际销售额增长速度快于北美。国际收入同比飙升60%，超过任何其他细分市场，而北美收入则增长40%。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, Amazon will incur fewer costs this year related to coronavirus safety measures. Operating income is forecast to be between $4.5 billion and $8 billion in the second quarter, assuming $1.5 billion of costs related to Covid-19. That’s in line with what Amazon executives predicted last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，亚马逊今年与冠状病毒安全措施相关的成本将会减少。假设与Covid-19相关的成本为15亿美元，预计第二季度营业收入将在45亿美元至80亿美元之间。这与亚马逊高管上季度的预测一致。</blockquote></p><p> AmazonsaidWednesday it would spend more than $1 billion on raising wages for over half a million of its U.S. operations workers. On a call with reporters, Olsavsky said it decided to move up the pay increase from the fall to this spring as volumes remain just as strong as they were at the beginning of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊周三表示，将斥资超过10亿美元为超过50万美国运营员工提高工资。奥尔萨夫斯基在与记者的看涨期权上表示，由于销量仍然与大流行开始时一样强劲，公司决定将加薪从秋季提前到今年春季。</blockquote></p><p> Olsavsky declined to comment on Amazon’s CEO transition plans, which will come into play once Bezossteps down in the third quarter. Bezos will turn the helm over to AWS CEO Andy Jassy and assume the role of executive chairman of Amazon’s board.</p><p><blockquote>奥尔萨夫斯基拒绝就亚马逊首席执行官过渡计划发表评论，该计划将在贝佐斯第三季度卸任后发挥作用。贝佐斯将把掌舵权移交给AWS首席执行官安迪·贾西，并担任亚马逊董事会执行主席。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q1-2021.html\">CNBC</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q1-2021.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188611661","content_text":"Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.\nThe company confirmed that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year over year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter.\n\nAmazonshares climbed more than 3.5% in extended trading Thursday after the company released its first-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and revenue.\n\nHere’s how the e-commerce giant fared, relative to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:\n\nEarnings:$15.79 per share vs. $9.54 per share expected\nRevenue:$108.52 billion vs. $104.47 billion expected\n\nFew companies have benefited from the pandemic-fueled surge of online shoppingas much as Amazon. Its first-quarter results showed the company’s business continues to be buoyed by the pandemic, with sales soaring 44% year-over-year to $108.5 billion.\nAmazon’s guidance for the second quarter implies that it expects the momentum to continue, which should help allay investor fears that business could slow in a post-pandemic environment. The company expects to post revenue between $110 billion and $116 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s projection $108.6 billion.\nCrucially, Amazon confirmed in its guidance that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year-over-year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter. Typically, Amazon’s annual, two-day discount bonanza takes place in July, but the company postponed the event to October last year amid pandemic-related uncertainty.\nWhen asked about the Prime Day timing, CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with investors: “In many areas, July is vacation month, so it might be better for customers, sellers and vendors to experiment with a different time period. We believe that it might be better timing later in [the second quarter], so that’s what we’re testing this year.”\nOutside of its core retail segment, Amazon’s cloud-computing and advertising businesses continue to boom. Amazon Web Servicessawnet sales of $13.5 billion during the quarter, up 32% year over year. Amazon doesn’t disclose advertising sales, but it’s included in the company’s “Other” category, which saw its revenues grow 77% year over year to $6.9 billion.\nAmazon CEO Jeff Bezos also gave a rare glimpse into how the company’s streaming business has fared during the pandemic, as stuck-at-home consumers relied on online entertainment to keep busy. “As Prime Video turns 10, over 175 million Prime members have streamed shows and movies in the past year, and streaming hours are up more than 70% year over year,” he said.\nAmazon’s streaming service, Prime Video, is a key offering of the company’s Prime subscription service, which costs $119 a year and includes a range of other benefits like free, two-day shipping. Bezos disclosed earlier this month that the company now has 200 million Prime subscribers, 50 million more than it had at the start of 2020.\nPhysical stores revenue, which includes Whole Foods Market and other brick-and-mortar offerings like Amazon Books, continued to fall. Sales slumped 16% to $3.9 billion. The category excludes online delivery, Olsavsky said.\nDuring the quarter, Amazon’s sales grew faster internationally than they did in North America. International revenue surged 60% year over year, more than any other segment, while North America revenue climbed 40%.\nAs expected, Amazon will incur fewer costs this year related to coronavirus safety measures. Operating income is forecast to be between $4.5 billion and $8 billion in the second quarter, assuming $1.5 billion of costs related to Covid-19. That’s in line with what Amazon executives predicted last quarter.\nAmazonsaidWednesday it would spend more than $1 billion on raising wages for over half a million of its U.S. operations workers. On a call with reporters, Olsavsky said it decided to move up the pay increase from the fall to this spring as volumes remain just as strong as they were at the beginning of the pandemic.\nOlsavsky declined to comment on Amazon’s CEO transition plans, which will come into play once Bezossteps down in the third quarter. Bezos will turn the helm over to AWS CEO Andy Jassy and assume the role of executive chairman of Amazon’s board.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377769820,"gmtCreate":1619566092960,"gmtModify":1634211809554,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks like more upside to markets this week","listText":"Looks like more upside to markets this week","text":"Looks like more upside to markets this week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377769820","repostId":"2130373930","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2130373930","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619556617,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2130373930?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 04:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Google Shares Rise On Revenue And Earnings Beat, $50B Buyback<blockquote>谷歌股价因收入和盈利超出预期以及500亿美元回购而上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2130373930","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Google parent company Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL) reported first-quarter earnings Tuesday afternoon.","content":"<p>Google parent company <b>Alphabet Inc </b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported first-quarter earnings&nbsp;Tuesday afternoon.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌母公司<b>Alphabet公司</b>（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）周二下午公布了第一季度财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>First Quarter Earnings: </b>Alphabet reported revenue of $55.3 billion in the first quarter, beating&nbsp;estimates of $51.7 billion. The total was up 32% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益：</b>Alphabet公布第一季度营收为553亿美元，超出预期的517亿美元。总数同比增长32%。</blockquote></p><p>Earnings per share&nbsp;of $26.29 beat&nbsp;estimates of $15.88. The company reported net income of $17.9 billion, more than doubling last year’s first-quarter total of $6.8 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04c18e5c94d3b6d4047c6f7b1f4540eb\" tg-width=\"1602\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Total advertising revenue was $44.7 billion in the first quarter, up from the comparable $33.8 billion in the last fiscal year. The company reported search revenue of $31.9 billion, YouTube revenue of $6&nbsp;billion and Google network revenue of $6.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益为26.29美元，超出预期的15.88美元。该公司公布的净利润为179亿美元，是去年第一季度68亿美元总额的两倍多。第一季度广告总收入为447亿美元，高于上一财年的338亿美元。该公司公布的搜索收入为319亿美元，YouTube收入为60亿美元，谷歌网络收入为68亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Google's Cloud revenue improved 46% to $4 billion, though the division lags behind rivals Amazon.com Inc.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌的云收入增长了46%，达到40亿美元，尽管该部门落后于竞争对手亚马逊公司。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s other segment revenue was $6.5 billion and Google Cloud revenue was $4&nbsp;billion in the first quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ed7cd2419e150521d3b20d080a0ba44\" tg-width=\"1614\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google and Alphabet, said: “Over the last year, people have turned to Google Search andmany online services to stay informed, connected and entertained. We’ve continued our focus on delivering trustedservices to help people around the world. Our Cloud services are helping businesses, big and small, acceleratetheir digital transformations.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司第一季度的其他部门收入为65亿美元，谷歌云收入为40亿美元。谷歌和Alphabet首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊(Sundar Pichai)表示：“去年，人们转向谷歌搜索和许多在线服务来保持信息、联系和娱乐。我们继续专注于提供值得信赖的服务来帮助世界各地的人们。我们的云服务正在帮助大大小小的企业加速数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p>Ruth Porat, CFO of Google and Alphabet, said: “Total revenues of $55.3 billion in the first quarter reflect elevatedconsumer activity online and broad based growth in advertiser revenue. We’re very pleased with the ongoing&nbsp;momentum in Google Cloud, with revenues of $4.0 billion in the quarter reflecting strength and opportunity in bothGCP and Workspace.”&nbsp;<b>Share Buyback Announced:</b> Along with its first-quarter earnings, Alphabet reported a $50-billion share buyback was authorized by the company. The share repurchases will be executed “from time to time.\"</p><p><blockquote>谷歌和Alphabet首席财务官露丝·波拉特(Ruth Porat)表示：“第一季度总收入为553亿美元，反映了在线消费者活动的增加和广告商收入的广泛增长。我们对谷歌云的持续势头感到非常满意，收入为40亿美元本季度的收入反映了GCP和Workspace的实力和机遇。”<b>宣布回购股票：</b>除了第一季度财报外，Alphabet还报告称，该公司已授权进行500亿美元的股票回购。股份回购将“不时”执行。</blockquote></p><p><b>Price Action: </b>Shares of GOOG are up 4% to $2,410 in after-hours Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>周二盘后，GOOG股价上涨4%，至2,410美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cf14e52744d9520c6eea9cf5fd08aa1\" tg-width=\"1484\" tg-height=\"974\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google Shares Rise On Revenue And Earnings Beat, $50B Buyback<blockquote>谷歌股价因收入和盈利超出预期以及500亿美元回购而上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle Shares Rise On Revenue And Earnings Beat, $50B Buyback<blockquote>谷歌股价因收入和盈利超出预期以及500亿美元回购而上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-28 04:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Google parent company <b>Alphabet Inc </b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported first-quarter earnings&nbsp;Tuesday afternoon.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌母公司<b>Alphabet公司</b>（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）周二下午公布了第一季度财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>First Quarter Earnings: </b>Alphabet reported revenue of $55.3 billion in the first quarter, beating&nbsp;estimates of $51.7 billion. The total was up 32% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益：</b>Alphabet公布第一季度营收为553亿美元，超出预期的517亿美元。总数同比增长32%。</blockquote></p><p>Earnings per share&nbsp;of $26.29 beat&nbsp;estimates of $15.88. The company reported net income of $17.9 billion, more than doubling last year’s first-quarter total of $6.8 billion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04c18e5c94d3b6d4047c6f7b1f4540eb\" tg-width=\"1602\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Total advertising revenue was $44.7 billion in the first quarter, up from the comparable $33.8 billion in the last fiscal year. The company reported search revenue of $31.9 billion, YouTube revenue of $6&nbsp;billion and Google network revenue of $6.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益为26.29美元，超出预期的15.88美元。该公司公布的净利润为179亿美元，是去年第一季度68亿美元总额的两倍多。第一季度广告总收入为447亿美元，高于上一财年的338亿美元。该公司公布的搜索收入为319亿美元，YouTube收入为60亿美元，谷歌网络收入为68亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Google's Cloud revenue improved 46% to $4 billion, though the division lags behind rivals Amazon.com Inc.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌的云收入增长了46%，达到40亿美元，尽管该部门落后于竞争对手亚马逊公司。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s other segment revenue was $6.5 billion and Google Cloud revenue was $4&nbsp;billion in the first quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ed7cd2419e150521d3b20d080a0ba44\" tg-width=\"1614\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google and Alphabet, said: “Over the last year, people have turned to Google Search andmany online services to stay informed, connected and entertained. We’ve continued our focus on delivering trustedservices to help people around the world. Our Cloud services are helping businesses, big and small, acceleratetheir digital transformations.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司第一季度的其他部门收入为65亿美元，谷歌云收入为40亿美元。谷歌和Alphabet首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊(Sundar Pichai)表示：“去年，人们转向谷歌搜索和许多在线服务来保持信息、联系和娱乐。我们继续专注于提供值得信赖的服务来帮助世界各地的人们。我们的云服务正在帮助大大小小的企业加速数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p>Ruth Porat, CFO of Google and Alphabet, said: “Total revenues of $55.3 billion in the first quarter reflect elevatedconsumer activity online and broad based growth in advertiser revenue. We’re very pleased with the ongoing&nbsp;momentum in Google Cloud, with revenues of $4.0 billion in the quarter reflecting strength and opportunity in bothGCP and Workspace.”&nbsp;<b>Share Buyback Announced:</b> Along with its first-quarter earnings, Alphabet reported a $50-billion share buyback was authorized by the company. The share repurchases will be executed “from time to time.\"</p><p><blockquote>谷歌和Alphabet首席财务官露丝·波拉特(Ruth Porat)表示：“第一季度总收入为553亿美元，反映了在线消费者活动的增加和广告商收入的广泛增长。我们对谷歌云的持续势头感到非常满意，收入为40亿美元本季度的收入反映了GCP和Workspace的实力和机遇。”<b>宣布回购股票：</b>除了第一季度财报外，Alphabet还报告称，该公司已授权进行500亿美元的股票回购。股份回购将“不时”执行。</blockquote></p><p><b>Price Action: </b>Shares of GOOG are up 4% to $2,410 in after-hours Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>周二盘后，GOOG股价上涨4%，至2,410美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cf14e52744d9520c6eea9cf5fd08aa1\" tg-width=\"1484\" tg-height=\"974\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2130373930","content_text":"Google parent company Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported first-quarter earnings Tuesday afternoon.First Quarter Earnings: Alphabet reported revenue of $55.3 billion in the first quarter, beating estimates of $51.7 billion. The total was up 32% year-over-year.Earnings per share of $26.29 beat estimates of $15.88. The company reported net income of $17.9 billion, more than doubling last year’s first-quarter total of $6.8 billion.Total advertising revenue was $44.7 billion in the first quarter, up from the comparable $33.8 billion in the last fiscal year. The company reported search revenue of $31.9 billion, YouTube revenue of $6 billion and Google network revenue of $6.8 billion.Google's Cloud revenue improved 46% to $4 billion, though the division lags behind rivals Amazon.com Inc.The company’s other segment revenue was $6.5 billion and Google Cloud revenue was $4 billion in the first quarter.Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google and Alphabet, said: “Over the last year, people have turned to Google Search andmany online services to stay informed, connected and entertained. We’ve continued our focus on delivering trustedservices to help people around the world. Our Cloud services are helping businesses, big and small, acceleratetheir digital transformations.\"Ruth Porat, CFO of Google and Alphabet, said: “Total revenues of $55.3 billion in the first quarter reflect elevatedconsumer activity online and broad based growth in advertiser revenue. We’re very pleased with the ongoing momentum in Google Cloud, with revenues of $4.0 billion in the quarter reflecting strength and opportunity in bothGCP and Workspace.” Share Buyback Announced: Along with its first-quarter earnings, Alphabet reported a $50-billion share buyback was authorized by the company. The share repurchases will be executed “from time to time.\"Price Action: Shares of GOOG are up 4% to $2,410 in after-hours Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377863394,"gmtCreate":1619515402718,"gmtModify":1634212138859,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls thanks in advance!","listText":"Like pls thanks in advance!","text":"Like pls thanks in advance!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377863394","repostId":"1155157199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155157199","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619494851,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155157199?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-27 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft Nears $2 Trillion Market Cap. Earnings Are Tuesday.<blockquote>微软市值接近2万亿美元。收益将于周二公布。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155157199","media":"Barrons","summary":"Wall Street is expecting Microsoft to report strong financial results when the company posts its March quarter numbers after the close of trading on Tuesday.The consensus forecast among analysts is for revenue of $41 billion, up 17% from a year ago, with profits of $1.78 a share.  On Monday, Microsoft stock set an intraday record of $262.44, leaving the stock just a modest rally away from hitting a $2 trillion valuation for the first time. To get there, the stock needs to rise to $264.55.J.P. Mo","content":"<p>Wall Street is expecting Microsoft to report strong financial results when the company posts its March quarter numbers after the close of trading on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计微软将在周二收盘后公布三月份季度数据时公布强劲的财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus forecast among analysts is for revenue of $41 billion, up 17% from a year ago, with profits of $1.78 a share.&nbsp; On Monday, Microsoft stock set an intraday record of $262.44, leaving the stock just a modest rally away from hitting a $2 trillion valuation for the first time. To get there, the stock needs to rise to $264.55.</p><p><blockquote>分析师普遍预测营收为410亿美元，同比增长17%，每股利润为1.78美元。周一，微软股价创下262.44美元的盘中纪录，距离首次触及2万亿美元估值仅小幅上涨。要实现这一目标，该股需要上涨至264.55美元。</blockquote></p><p>The shares have gained 18% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，该股已上涨18%。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts expect another strong quarter from the company’s Azure and Office 365 cloud businesses, and will be looking for signs of accelerating growth in its enterprise operation. Sales of Surface hardware—laptops and whiteboards—were likely strong in the quarter, given the huge recent growth in PC purchases, although there is some potential that shortages of components resulted in unfilled demand. Strength in the PC market also bodes well for sales of the Windows operating system.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计该公司的Azure和Office 365云业务将迎来另一个强劲的季度，并将寻找其企业运营加速增长的迹象。鉴于近期PC购买量大幅增长，Surface硬件（笔记本电脑和白板）的销售可能在本季度强劲，尽管组件短缺可能导致需求未得到满足。个人电脑市场的强劲也预示着Windows操作系统的销售。</blockquote></p><p>Microsoft breaks down its results into&nbsp;three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, which includes Office 365, Dynamics, and LinkedIn; Intelligence Cloud, which includes Azure and enterprise server software; and More Personal Computing, which includes Windows, Xbox, Surface hardware, and Bing.</p><p><blockquote>微软将其业绩分为三个部分：生产力和业务流程，其中包括Office 365、Dynamics和LinkedIn；智能云，包括Azure和企业服务器软件；以及更多的个人计算，包括Windows、Xbox、Surface硬件和Bing。</blockquote></p><p>When Microsoft reported its results for its fiscal second quarter in late January,CFO Amy Hood provided revenue guidance for each segment. For Productivity and Business Processes, she projected revenue of $13.35 billion to $13.6 billion. The call for Intelligent Cloud was for revenue of $14.7 billion to $14.95 billion, while she predicted $12.3 billion to $12.7 billion for More Personal Computing. If revenue for each segment came in at the top of its forecast range, the total would be $41.25 billion.</p><p><blockquote>当微软在1月底公布第二财季业绩时，首席财务官Amy Hood提供了每个部门的收入指引。对于生产力和业务流程，她预计收入为133.5亿至136亿美元。智能云的看涨期权是收入为147亿至149.5亿美元，而她预测更多个人计算的收入为123亿至127亿美元。如果每个部门的收入都处于预测范围的顶部，那么总收入将达到412.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>In research notes, several analysts cited positive comments from customers and resellers in projecting strong results.</p><p><blockquote>在研究报告中，几位分析师引用了客户和经销商的积极评论来预测强劲的业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Last week, KeyBanc Capital’s Michael Turits repeated his Overweight rating on the stock while lifting his target for the price to $295, from $280. He says the company is likely benefiting from a combination of strong IT demand and continuing strength in PC shipments.</p><p><blockquote>上周，KeyBanc Capital的Michael Turits重申了对该股的跑赢大盘评级，同时将目标价从280美元上调至295美元。他表示，该公司可能会受益于强劲的IT需求和个人电脑出货量的持续强劲。</blockquote></p><p>“We continue to see Microsoft’s combination of expanding Azure scope, broad enterprise application innovation, and aggressive bundling seeing success in the market,” he wrote. “Nearly all North American Microsoft distributors/resellers we spoke with reported Microsoft channel revenue on or above plan.”</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我们继续看到微软不断扩大的Azure范围、广泛的企业应用程序创新和积极的捆绑在市场上取得了成功。”“我们采访的几乎所有北美微软分销商/经销商都报告微软渠道收入达到或高于计划。”</blockquote></p><p>J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Murphy came away from his own new survey of resellers of Microsoft products encouraged about the outlook. He says those companies’ quarterly sales of Microsoft goods came in an average of 3.3% above their expectations, driven by improving enterprise demand. He reported strength across the company’s enterprise product lines, with growth in Azure, Teams, Office 365, and security products, among other places. Murphy rates Microsoft at Overweight and has a target of $245 for the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师Mark Murphy对微软产品经销商进行了新的调查，对前景感到鼓舞。他表示，在企业需求改善的推动下，这些公司的微软商品季度销售额平均比预期高出3.3%。他报告了公司企业产品线的实力，包括Azure、Teams、Office 365和安全产品等领域的增长。Murphy对微软的评级为跑赢大盘，目标股价为245美元。</blockquote></p><p>Wedbush analyst Dan Ives&nbsp;forecast “another masterpiece quarter,” driven by growth of at least 45% from Azure, which he thinks is taking market share from Amazon Web Services. He said the current work-from-home environment is encouraging more businesses to make strategic moves toward cloud-based operations “with Microsoft across the board with Azure growth remaining brisk.” He maintained an Outperform rating, with a target of $300 for the share price.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)预测，在Azure至少增长45%的推动下，这将是“又一个杰作季度”，他认为Azure正在从亚马逊网络服务(Amazon Web Services)手中夺取市场份额。他表示，当前的在家工作环境正在鼓励更多企业采取战略举措，转向基于云的运营，“微软全面展开，Azure增长依然强劲”。他维持跑赢大盘评级，目标股价为300美元。</blockquote></p><p>Citi analyst Tyler Radke&nbsp;last week reiterated a Buy rating on Microsoft shares, lifting his price target to $302, from $292, and setting a “positive catalyst watch” on the stock ahead of the results. He wrote that a combination of a survey of resellers and channel checks made him more confident that Microsoft can propel revenue across all three primary business segments, with strength in personal computer demand from both consumers and businesses, robust upgrade activity on server software, and continued strength in Azure as a result of “continued strong enterprise consumption growth.”&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师泰勒·拉德克(Tyler Radke)上周重申了对微软股票的买入评级，将目标价从292美元上调至302美元，并在业绩公布前对该股设定了“积极催化剂观察”。他写道，对经销商的调查和渠道检查的结合使他更有信心，微软可以推动所有三个主要业务部门的收入，消费者和企业对个人电脑的需求强劲，服务器软件的强劲升级活动，以及由于“企业消费持续强劲增长”，Azure持续走强。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft Nears $2 Trillion Market Cap. Earnings Are Tuesday.<blockquote>微软市值接近2万亿美元。收益将于周二公布。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft Nears $2 Trillion Market Cap. Earnings Are Tuesday.<blockquote>微软市值接近2万亿美元。收益将于周二公布。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-27 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wall Street is expecting Microsoft to report strong financial results when the company posts its March quarter numbers after the close of trading on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计微软将在周二收盘后公布三月份季度数据时公布强劲的财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus forecast among analysts is for revenue of $41 billion, up 17% from a year ago, with profits of $1.78 a share.&nbsp; On Monday, Microsoft stock set an intraday record of $262.44, leaving the stock just a modest rally away from hitting a $2 trillion valuation for the first time. To get there, the stock needs to rise to $264.55.</p><p><blockquote>分析师普遍预测营收为410亿美元，同比增长17%，每股利润为1.78美元。周一，微软股价创下262.44美元的盘中纪录，距离首次触及2万亿美元估值仅小幅上涨。要实现这一目标，该股需要上涨至264.55美元。</blockquote></p><p>The shares have gained 18% year to date.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，该股已上涨18%。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts expect another strong quarter from the company’s Azure and Office 365 cloud businesses, and will be looking for signs of accelerating growth in its enterprise operation. Sales of Surface hardware—laptops and whiteboards—were likely strong in the quarter, given the huge recent growth in PC purchases, although there is some potential that shortages of components resulted in unfilled demand. Strength in the PC market also bodes well for sales of the Windows operating system.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计该公司的Azure和Office 365云业务将迎来另一个强劲的季度，并将寻找其企业运营加速增长的迹象。鉴于近期PC购买量大幅增长，Surface硬件（笔记本电脑和白板）的销售可能在本季度强劲，尽管组件短缺可能导致需求未得到满足。个人电脑市场的强劲也预示着Windows操作系统的销售。</blockquote></p><p>Microsoft breaks down its results into&nbsp;three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, which includes Office 365, Dynamics, and LinkedIn; Intelligence Cloud, which includes Azure and enterprise server software; and More Personal Computing, which includes Windows, Xbox, Surface hardware, and Bing.</p><p><blockquote>微软将其业绩分为三个部分：生产力和业务流程，其中包括Office 365、Dynamics和LinkedIn；智能云，包括Azure和企业服务器软件；以及更多的个人计算，包括Windows、Xbox、Surface硬件和Bing。</blockquote></p><p>When Microsoft reported its results for its fiscal second quarter in late January,CFO Amy Hood provided revenue guidance for each segment. For Productivity and Business Processes, she projected revenue of $13.35 billion to $13.6 billion. The call for Intelligent Cloud was for revenue of $14.7 billion to $14.95 billion, while she predicted $12.3 billion to $12.7 billion for More Personal Computing. If revenue for each segment came in at the top of its forecast range, the total would be $41.25 billion.</p><p><blockquote>当微软在1月底公布第二财季业绩时，首席财务官Amy Hood提供了每个部门的收入指引。对于生产力和业务流程，她预计收入为133.5亿至136亿美元。智能云的看涨期权是收入为147亿至149.5亿美元，而她预测更多个人计算的收入为123亿至127亿美元。如果每个部门的收入都处于预测范围的顶部，那么总收入将达到412.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>In research notes, several analysts cited positive comments from customers and resellers in projecting strong results.</p><p><blockquote>在研究报告中，几位分析师引用了客户和经销商的积极评论来预测强劲的业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Last week, KeyBanc Capital’s Michael Turits repeated his Overweight rating on the stock while lifting his target for the price to $295, from $280. He says the company is likely benefiting from a combination of strong IT demand and continuing strength in PC shipments.</p><p><blockquote>上周，KeyBanc Capital的Michael Turits重申了对该股的跑赢大盘评级，同时将目标价从280美元上调至295美元。他表示，该公司可能会受益于强劲的IT需求和个人电脑出货量的持续强劲。</blockquote></p><p>“We continue to see Microsoft’s combination of expanding Azure scope, broad enterprise application innovation, and aggressive bundling seeing success in the market,” he wrote. “Nearly all North American Microsoft distributors/resellers we spoke with reported Microsoft channel revenue on or above plan.”</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我们继续看到微软不断扩大的Azure范围、广泛的企业应用程序创新和积极的捆绑在市场上取得了成功。”“我们采访的几乎所有北美微软分销商/经销商都报告微软渠道收入达到或高于计划。”</blockquote></p><p>J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Murphy came away from his own new survey of resellers of Microsoft products encouraged about the outlook. He says those companies’ quarterly sales of Microsoft goods came in an average of 3.3% above their expectations, driven by improving enterprise demand. He reported strength across the company’s enterprise product lines, with growth in Azure, Teams, Office 365, and security products, among other places. Murphy rates Microsoft at Overweight and has a target of $245 for the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师Mark Murphy对微软产品经销商进行了新的调查，对前景感到鼓舞。他表示，在企业需求改善的推动下，这些公司的微软商品季度销售额平均比预期高出3.3%。他报告了公司企业产品线的实力，包括Azure、Teams、Office 365和安全产品等领域的增长。Murphy对微软的评级为跑赢大盘，目标股价为245美元。</blockquote></p><p>Wedbush analyst Dan Ives&nbsp;forecast “another masterpiece quarter,” driven by growth of at least 45% from Azure, which he thinks is taking market share from Amazon Web Services. He said the current work-from-home environment is encouraging more businesses to make strategic moves toward cloud-based operations “with Microsoft across the board with Azure growth remaining brisk.” He maintained an Outperform rating, with a target of $300 for the share price.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)预测，在Azure至少增长45%的推动下，这将是“又一个杰作季度”，他认为Azure正在从亚马逊网络服务(Amazon Web Services)手中夺取市场份额。他表示，当前的在家工作环境正在鼓励更多企业采取战略举措，转向基于云的运营，“微软全面展开，Azure增长依然强劲”。他维持跑赢大盘评级，目标股价为300美元。</blockquote></p><p>Citi analyst Tyler Radke&nbsp;last week reiterated a Buy rating on Microsoft shares, lifting his price target to $302, from $292, and setting a “positive catalyst watch” on the stock ahead of the results. He wrote that a combination of a survey of resellers and channel checks made him more confident that Microsoft can propel revenue across all three primary business segments, with strength in personal computer demand from both consumers and businesses, robust upgrade activity on server software, and continued strength in Azure as a result of “continued strong enterprise consumption growth.”&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师泰勒·拉德克(Tyler Radke)上周重申了对微软股票的买入评级，将目标价从292美元上调至302美元，并在业绩公布前对该股设定了“积极催化剂观察”。他写道，对经销商的调查和渠道检查的结合使他更有信心，微软可以推动所有三个主要业务部门的收入，消费者和企业对个人电脑的需求强劲，服务器软件的强劲升级活动，以及由于“企业消费持续强劲增长”，Azure持续走强。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-nears-2-trillion-market-cap-earnings-are-tuesday-51619457928?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-nears-2-trillion-market-cap-earnings-are-tuesday-51619457928?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155157199","content_text":"Wall Street is expecting Microsoft to report strong financial results when the company posts its March quarter numbers after the close of trading on Tuesday.The consensus forecast among analysts is for revenue of $41 billion, up 17% from a year ago, with profits of $1.78 a share.  On Monday, Microsoft stock set an intraday record of $262.44, leaving the stock just a modest rally away from hitting a $2 trillion valuation for the first time. To get there, the stock needs to rise to $264.55.The shares have gained 18% year to date.Analysts expect another strong quarter from the company’s Azure and Office 365 cloud businesses, and will be looking for signs of accelerating growth in its enterprise operation. Sales of Surface hardware—laptops and whiteboards—were likely strong in the quarter, given the huge recent growth in PC purchases, although there is some potential that shortages of components resulted in unfilled demand. Strength in the PC market also bodes well for sales of the Windows operating system. Microsoft breaks down its results into three segments: Productivity and Business Processes, which includes Office 365, Dynamics, and LinkedIn; Intelligence Cloud, which includes Azure and enterprise server software; and More Personal Computing, which includes Windows, Xbox, Surface hardware, and Bing.When Microsoft reported its results for its fiscal second quarter in late January,CFO Amy Hood provided revenue guidance for each segment. For Productivity and Business Processes, she projected revenue of $13.35 billion to $13.6 billion. The call for Intelligent Cloud was for revenue of $14.7 billion to $14.95 billion, while she predicted $12.3 billion to $12.7 billion for More Personal Computing. If revenue for each segment came in at the top of its forecast range, the total would be $41.25 billion.In research notes, several analysts cited positive comments from customers and resellers in projecting strong results.Last week, KeyBanc Capital’s Michael Turits repeated his Overweight rating on the stock while lifting his target for the price to $295, from $280. He says the company is likely benefiting from a combination of strong IT demand and continuing strength in PC shipments.“We continue to see Microsoft’s combination of expanding Azure scope, broad enterprise application innovation, and aggressive bundling seeing success in the market,” he wrote. “Nearly all North American Microsoft distributors/resellers we spoke with reported Microsoft channel revenue on or above plan.”J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Murphy came away from his own new survey of resellers of Microsoft products encouraged about the outlook. He says those companies’ quarterly sales of Microsoft goods came in an average of 3.3% above their expectations, driven by improving enterprise demand. He reported strength across the company’s enterprise product lines, with growth in Azure, Teams, Office 365, and security products, among other places. Murphy rates Microsoft at Overweight and has a target of $245 for the stock price.Wedbush analyst Dan Ives forecast “another masterpiece quarter,” driven by growth of at least 45% from Azure, which he thinks is taking market share from Amazon Web Services. He said the current work-from-home environment is encouraging more businesses to make strategic moves toward cloud-based operations “with Microsoft across the board with Azure growth remaining brisk.” He maintained an Outperform rating, with a target of $300 for the share price.Citi analyst Tyler Radke last week reiterated a Buy rating on Microsoft shares, lifting his price target to $302, from $292, and setting a “positive catalyst watch” on the stock ahead of the results. He wrote that a combination of a survey of resellers and channel checks made him more confident that Microsoft can propel revenue across all three primary business segments, with strength in personal computer demand from both consumers and businesses, robust upgrade activity on server software, and continued strength in Azure as a result of “continued strong enterprise consumption growth.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372757941,"gmtCreate":1619247713783,"gmtModify":1634287444384,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"There has been a subtle shift to defensive stocks. Bad news can easily trigger a pullback.","listText":"There has been a subtle shift to defensive stocks. Bad news can easily trigger a pullback.","text":"There has been a subtle shift to defensive stocks. Bad news can easily trigger a pullback.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372757941","repostId":"1101099559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101099559","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619191663,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101099559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-23 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow rebounds 200 points led by banks and tech as market shrugs off higher tax fears<blockquote>由于市场摆脱了税收上涨的担忧，道琼斯指数在银行和科技股的带领下反弹200点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101099559","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as Wall Street reassessed concerns arising from news that the White ","content":"<p>U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as Wall Street reassessed concerns arising from news that the White House could seek a hike to the capital gains tax.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五反弹，华尔街重新评估了白宫可能寻求提高资本利得税的消息引发的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 200 points amid a jump in Goldman Sachs and Apple shares. The S&amp;P 500 rose 1% led by financials and technology shares, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.2%.</p><p><blockquote>由于高盛和苹果股价上涨，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨200点。在金融和科技股的带动下，标普500上涨1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Wall Street came off a turbulent session for equities after multiple news outlets reported Thursday afternoon that President Joe Biden is slated to propose much higher capital gains taxes for the rich.</p><p><blockquote>周四下午，多家新闻媒体报道称，总统乔·拜登将提议对富人征收更高的资本利得税，华尔街股市经历了动荡的交易日。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg News reported that Biden is planning a&nbsp;capital gains tax hike to as high as 43.4%&nbsp;for wealthy Americans.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新闻社报道称，拜登正计划将美国富人的资本利得税提高至高达43.4%。</blockquote></p><p>The proposal would hike the capital gains rate to 39.6% for&nbsp;those earning $1 million or more, up from 20% currently, according to Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters and the New York Times later also reported similar stories.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道，该提案将把收入100万美元或以上的人的资本利得税率从目前的20%提高到39.6%。路透社和《纽约时报》后来也报道了类似的故事。</blockquote></p><p>“We expect Congress will pass a scaled back version of this tax increase,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists in a note. “We expect Congress will settle on a more modest increase, potentially around 28%.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在一份报告中写道：“我们预计国会将通过此次增税的缩减版本。”“我们预计国会将决定更温和的增幅，可能在28%左右。”</blockquote></p><p>Week to date, the three major averages are all down about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周迄今为止，三大股指均下跌约1%。</blockquote></p><p>Intel shares dropped more than 5% after it issued second-quarter earnings guidance&nbsp;below analysts’ hopes. American Express fell over 4% after the credit card company reported quarterly revenue that was slightly short of forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔发布低于分析师预期的第二季度盈利指引后，股价下跌超过5%。美国运通(American Express)公布季度收入略低于预期，股价下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p>Snap shares, meanwhile, jumped 9% after it said&nbsp;it saw accelerating revenue growth and strong user numbers during the first quarter. Snap broke even on the bottom line while posting revenue of $770 million.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Snap表示第一季度收入增长加速，用户数量强劲，该公司股价上涨9%。Snap实现了盈亏平衡，营收为7.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Corporations have for the most part managed to beat Wall Street’s forecasts thus far into earnings season. Still, strong first-quarter results have been met with a more tepid response from investors, who have not, to date, snapped up shares of companies with some of the best results.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，企业在财报季中大多成功超出了华尔街的预期。尽管如此，投资者对第一季度强劲的业绩反应却较为冷淡，迄今为止，投资者尚未抢购业绩最好的公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Strategists say already-high valuations and near-record-high levels on the S&amp;P 500 and Dow have kept traders’ enthusiasm in check. But indexes are within 1.5% of their all-time highs even after Thursday’s losses.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，标普500和道指已经很高的估值以及接近历史新高的水平抑制了交易员的热情。但即使在周四下跌之后，指数仍与历史高点相差不到1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin&nbsp;plunged overnight, perhaps in part because of concerns about higher capital gains taxes, with the cryptocurrency last down about 8%, according to CoinMetrics. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum were also getting hit. So far, the sell-off there was not spilling over into other risk assets like equities.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinMetrics的数据，比特币隔夜暴跌，部分原因可能是对更高资本利得税的担忧，该加密货币最近下跌了约8%。以太币等其他加密货币也受到了打击。到目前为止，那里的抛售还没有蔓延到股票等其他风险资产。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow rebounds 200 points led by banks and tech as market shrugs off higher tax fears<blockquote>由于市场摆脱了税收上涨的担忧，道琼斯指数在银行和科技股的带领下反弹200点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow rebounds 200 points led by banks and tech as market shrugs off higher tax fears<blockquote>由于市场摆脱了税收上涨的担忧，道琼斯指数在银行和科技股的带领下反弹200点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-23 23:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as Wall Street reassessed concerns arising from news that the White House could seek a hike to the capital gains tax.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五反弹，华尔街重新评估了白宫可能寻求提高资本利得税的消息引发的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 200 points amid a jump in Goldman Sachs and Apple shares. The S&amp;P 500 rose 1% led by financials and technology shares, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.2%.</p><p><blockquote>由于高盛和苹果股价上涨，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨200点。在金融和科技股的带动下，标普500上涨1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Wall Street came off a turbulent session for equities after multiple news outlets reported Thursday afternoon that President Joe Biden is slated to propose much higher capital gains taxes for the rich.</p><p><blockquote>周四下午，多家新闻媒体报道称，总统乔·拜登将提议对富人征收更高的资本利得税，华尔街股市经历了动荡的交易日。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg News reported that Biden is planning a&nbsp;capital gains tax hike to as high as 43.4%&nbsp;for wealthy Americans.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新闻社报道称，拜登正计划将美国富人的资本利得税提高至高达43.4%。</blockquote></p><p>The proposal would hike the capital gains rate to 39.6% for&nbsp;those earning $1 million or more, up from 20% currently, according to Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters and the New York Times later also reported similar stories.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道，该提案将把收入100万美元或以上的人的资本利得税率从目前的20%提高到39.6%。路透社和《纽约时报》后来也报道了类似的故事。</blockquote></p><p>“We expect Congress will pass a scaled back version of this tax increase,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists in a note. “We expect Congress will settle on a more modest increase, potentially around 28%.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在一份报告中写道：“我们预计国会将通过此次增税的缩减版本。”“我们预计国会将决定更温和的增幅，可能在28%左右。”</blockquote></p><p>Week to date, the three major averages are all down about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周迄今为止，三大股指均下跌约1%。</blockquote></p><p>Intel shares dropped more than 5% after it issued second-quarter earnings guidance&nbsp;below analysts’ hopes. American Express fell over 4% after the credit card company reported quarterly revenue that was slightly short of forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔发布低于分析师预期的第二季度盈利指引后，股价下跌超过5%。美国运通(American Express)公布季度收入略低于预期，股价下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p>Snap shares, meanwhile, jumped 9% after it said&nbsp;it saw accelerating revenue growth and strong user numbers during the first quarter. Snap broke even on the bottom line while posting revenue of $770 million.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Snap表示第一季度收入增长加速，用户数量强劲，该公司股价上涨9%。Snap实现了盈亏平衡，营收为7.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Corporations have for the most part managed to beat Wall Street’s forecasts thus far into earnings season. Still, strong first-quarter results have been met with a more tepid response from investors, who have not, to date, snapped up shares of companies with some of the best results.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，企业在财报季中大多成功超出了华尔街的预期。尽管如此，投资者对第一季度强劲的业绩反应却较为冷淡，迄今为止，投资者尚未抢购业绩最好的公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Strategists say already-high valuations and near-record-high levels on the S&amp;P 500 and Dow have kept traders’ enthusiasm in check. But indexes are within 1.5% of their all-time highs even after Thursday’s losses.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，标普500和道指已经很高的估值以及接近历史新高的水平抑制了交易员的热情。但即使在周四下跌之后，指数仍与历史高点相差不到1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin&nbsp;plunged overnight, perhaps in part because of concerns about higher capital gains taxes, with the cryptocurrency last down about 8%, according to CoinMetrics. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum were also getting hit. So far, the sell-off there was not spilling over into other risk assets like equities.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinMetrics的数据，比特币隔夜暴跌，部分原因可能是对更高资本利得税的担忧，该加密货币最近下跌了约8%。以太币等其他加密货币也受到了打击。到目前为止，那里的抛售还没有蔓延到股票等其他风险资产。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SNAP":"Snap Inc","INTC":"英特尔",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101099559","content_text":"U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as Wall Street reassessed concerns arising from news that the White House could seek a hike to the capital gains tax.The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 200 points amid a jump in Goldman Sachs and Apple shares. The S&P 500 rose 1% led by financials and technology shares, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.2%.Wall Street came off a turbulent session for equities after multiple news outlets reported Thursday afternoon that President Joe Biden is slated to propose much higher capital gains taxes for the rich.Bloomberg News reported that Biden is planning a capital gains tax hike to as high as 43.4% for wealthy Americans.The proposal would hike the capital gains rate to 39.6% for those earning $1 million or more, up from 20% currently, according to Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters and the New York Times later also reported similar stories.“We expect Congress will pass a scaled back version of this tax increase,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists in a note. “We expect Congress will settle on a more modest increase, potentially around 28%.”Week to date, the three major averages are all down about 1%.Intel shares dropped more than 5% after it issued second-quarter earnings guidance below analysts’ hopes. American Express fell over 4% after the credit card company reported quarterly revenue that was slightly short of forecasts.Snap shares, meanwhile, jumped 9% after it said it saw accelerating revenue growth and strong user numbers during the first quarter. Snap broke even on the bottom line while posting revenue of $770 million.Corporations have for the most part managed to beat Wall Street’s forecasts thus far into earnings season. Still, strong first-quarter results have been met with a more tepid response from investors, who have not, to date, snapped up shares of companies with some of the best results.Strategists say already-high valuations and near-record-high levels on the S&P 500 and Dow have kept traders’ enthusiasm in check. But indexes are within 1.5% of their all-time highs even after Thursday’s losses.Bitcoin plunged overnight, perhaps in part because of concerns about higher capital gains taxes, with the cryptocurrency last down about 8%, according to CoinMetrics. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum were also getting hit. So far, the sell-off there was not spilling over into other risk assets like equities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNAP":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"INTC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838098509,"gmtCreate":1629356483101,"gmtModify":1633685444980,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Here’s a good article that summarises what to look out for in terms of market moving events that can trigger a stagflation selldown!https://blog.algomerchant.com/my-market-circulation-of-a-peak-everything-narrative/","listText":"Here’s a good article that summarises what to look out for in terms of market moving events that can trigger a stagflation selldown!https://blog.algomerchant.com/my-market-circulation-of-a-peak-everything-narrative/","text":"Here’s a good article that summarises what to look out for in terms of market moving events that can trigger a stagflation selldown!https://blog.algomerchant.com/my-market-circulation-of-a-peak-everything-narrative/","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838098509","repostId":"1161694085","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161694085","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629355541,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161694085?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 14:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees \"Bigger Inflation Surge\"<blockquote>滞胀来了：高盛三周内第二次下调GDP预期，认为“通胀飙升幅度更大”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161694085","media":"zerohedge","summary":"It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.\nJust three weeks ago, Goldman S","content":"<p>It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.</p><p><blockquote>它持续的时候很好，但是派对已经结束了。</blockquote></p><p> Just three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut its 2021 second half consumption growth forecast, resulting in 1% downgrade to its GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to +8.5% and +5.0%, respectively, \"as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust\" as the bank had expected. Which is odd considering the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that have entered into the economy. One wonder how many more trillions would be needed for Goldman to be happy.</p><p><blockquote>就在三周前，高盛（Goldman Sachs）——去年是第一家公布大幅高于普遍预期GDP预测的银行——下调了2021年下半年消费增长预测，导致第三季度和第四季度GDP增长预测下调1%至+8.5%和+5.0%，“因为越来越明显的是，美国服务业的复苏不太可能像该行预期的那样强劲”。考虑到数万亿美元的货币和财政刺激已经进入经济，这很奇怪。人们不禁要问，高盛还需要多少万亿美元才能幸福。</blockquote></p><p> But while Goldman's expected 2021 slowdown was manageable,<b>it got far worse in 2022, when the sluggishness is expected to truly hammer the growth rate, which Goldman now expected to shrink to a trend-like 1.5% - 2% by the second half of 2022, a far \"sharper deceleration than consensus expects.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>但尽管高盛预计2021年经济放缓是可控的，<b>2022年情况变得更糟，预计经济低迷将真正打击增长率，高盛目前预计，到2022年下半年，增长率将萎缩至趋势性的1.5%-2%，“减速幅度远高于市场普遍预期”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e05ecd5001da54cf0ba72fe0dfd3d65b\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In retrospect, the bad news was just starting.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，坏消息才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> As frequent readers recall, just yesterday we pointed out that US economic growth \"suddenly collapsed\" as the latest dismal retail sales print showed, validating the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey which saw a collapse in expectations for everything from growth, to profits and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>正如经常阅读的读者回忆的那样，就在昨天，我们指出，正如最新惨淡的零售销售数据所显示的那样，美国经济增长“突然崩溃”，这证实了美国银行基金经理的最新调查，该调查显示，从增长到利润和通胀的所有预期都崩溃了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0535f1d343fd85a5852ce78ffe00ef\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In response, Bank of America's chief economist Michelle Meyer wrotes that \"after adjusting for higher prices (PCE deflator of 4.4% qoq saar), the softening in nominal spending<b>leads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%.</b>\" Plugging that number into the bigger GDP model, and BofA now finds that \"the economy is running at a slower pace in 3Q,\" and<b>currently tracking just 4.5% following the retail sales report,</b>down from the bank's official forecast of 7% qoq saa, which is about to come down significantly.</p><p><blockquote>对此，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer写道，“在对价格上涨（PCE平减指数环比为4.4%）进行调整后，名义支出的疲软<b>导致我们跟踪第三季度实际消费者支出的saar环比仅为1.5%。此前，第二季度实际消费跟踪为12.3%。</b>“将这个数字插入更大的GDP模型，美国银行现在发现“第三季度经济运行速度放缓”，并且<b>目前零售销售报告发布后仅追踪4.5%，</b>低于该行官方预测的环比SAA 7%，该预测即将大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> Just hours later, Goldman strategist Chris Hussey chimed in with a preview of what was coming writing that \"the combination of lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, and given an increasingly likely drag on services consumption from the Delta variant, our economists are will likely revise our second-half growth assumptions even as we still do not expect material economic impact from the Delta variant in the US amidst abundant vaccine supply and relatively permissive COVID policies.\"</p><p><blockquote>仅仅几个小时后，高盛策略师Chris Hussey就对即将发生的事情进行了预览，他写道，“7月份零售额和汽车产量低于预期，考虑到德尔塔变异毒株对服务消费的拖累越来越大，我们的经济学家可能会修改我们对下半年增长的假设，尽管在疫苗供应充足和新冠政策相对宽松的情况下，我们仍然预计美国德尔塔变异毒株不会对经济产生重大影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Well, he was right, and moments ago - for the second time in under a month -<b>Goldman has slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to just 5.5% from 8.5% as of late July (and 9.5% previously),</b>as Goldman's chief economist now warns that \"the impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected.\"</p><p><blockquote>嗯，他是对的，就在刚才——不到一个月内第二次——<b>高盛已将第三季度GDP预测从7月底的8.5%（此前为9.5%）下调至仅5.5%，</b>正如高盛首席经济学家现在警告的那样，“事实证明，德尔塔变异毒株对增长和通胀的影响比我们预期的要大一些。”</blockquote></p><p>   We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.  The bank's revised forecast also trims its full year 2021 GDP forecast to below consensus 6% (vs. 6.4% previously and 6.2% consensus) and leads to 2022 growth of 4.5%, a number which at this rate will soon be slashed to 0 or negative.</p><p><blockquote>我们已将第三季度GDP预测下调至+5.5%，反映出消费者支出和生产受到的打击。八月份餐饮、旅游和其他一些服务支出可能会下降，尽管我们预计下降幅度不大且短暂。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度的库存重建减少。央行修订后的预测还将2021年全年GDP预测下调至6%以下（此前为6.4%，市场普遍预期为6.2%），并导致2022年增长4.5%，按照这个速度，这一数字很快将被削减至0或负数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cac3d7e08c01e3117276cba4e98c1719\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Here are some more details from Goldman behind the sharp cut to GDP, which it blames on - what else - the convenient Delta variant, and not t - say - that US consumers were once again tapped out, and with no more stimmy cash and savings all spent, was instead borrowingliterally<i><b>record</b></i>amounts on their credit cards.</p><p><blockquote>以下是高盛在GDP大幅削减背后提供的更多细节，它将其归咎于——还有什么——便利的德尔塔变异毒株，而不是t-说——美国消费者再次被耗尽，并且不再有刺激的现金和储蓄全部花掉，而是字面上的借贷<i><b>记录</b></i>他们信用卡上的金额。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d88ea371481a13ae37ab8a93ba87bfc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Anyway, here is how Goldman feeds the \"but Delta\" fiction:</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，高盛是如何助长“但是三角洲”的虚构的：</blockquote></p><p> The Delta variant is weighing on both consumer spending and production in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔变异毒株给第三季度的消费者支出和生产带来压力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   On the consumption side, we cut our 2021H2 forecast slightly last month, anticipating that renewed virus spread would delay a full recovery of the office-adjacent economy and the most virus-sensitive services, such as entertainment events. But the decline in retail sales in July and the drop-off in our consumer spending tracker through early August, shown in Exhibit 1, suggest a larger slowdown in spending than we expected.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2130c6999cfd9d7ab6962e752ee316f\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"530\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Forward-looking indicators also point to a further pullback in services spending. OpenTable data show a roughly 7% decline in restaurant reservations since the end of July, travel companies report an increase in cancellations and a modest decline in bookings, and press reports note that some hospitals are again delaying elective surgeries to clear capacity for Covid patients.</p><p><blockquote>在消费方面，我们上个月小幅下调了2021年下半年的预测，预计病毒的重新传播将推迟办公室附近经济和对病毒最敏感的服务（例如娱乐活动）的全面复苏。但如图表1所示，7月份零售额的下降以及截至8月初消费者支出跟踪数据的下降表明支出放缓幅度超出了我们的预期。前瞻性指标还表明服务支出将进一步回落。OpenTable数据显示，自7月底以来，餐厅预订量下降了约7%，旅游公司报告取消预订量增加，预订量略有下降，新闻报道指出，一些医院再次推迟择期手术，以清理新冠患者的容量。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman also decided to blame supply-chain bottlenecks - the same bottlenecks that were patently obvious last month yet when countless penguins, like Goldman, expected them to be \"transitory.\" Well, they aren't looking so transitory now, eh?</p><p><blockquote>高盛还决定将责任归咎于供应链瓶颈——同样的瓶颈在上个月显而易见，当时无数像高盛一样的企鹅预计它们只是“暂时的”。嗯，他们现在看起来不那么短暂了，嗯？</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li></li>  <li>On the production side, the Delta variant is prolonging supply chain disruptions and delaying a full rebound of factory activity. Production holdups in Q2 led to a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown and widening of the trade deficit as US producers struggled to meet strong consumer demand. This accounted for much of the eventual disappointment on Q2 GDP growth, but a rebound in production and the rebuild of depleted inventories—especially at automakers—appeared likely to boost Q3 growth.</li>  <li><b>Unfortunately, that expectation has proven premature</b>. Earlier this month we highlighted the risk of global supply chain spillovers from the impact of the Delta variant in the Asia Pacific region, where new Covid restrictions are much more stringent than in the US. Since then more setbacks have emerged, including problems for semiconductor producers in Malaysia and a major port closure in China.</li>  <li>Our autos analysts note that automakers now expect that the disruption from the semiconductor supply shortage to global auto production will be nearly as large in Q3 as in Q2 and that supply will not increase until late Q3 or Q4. As Exhibit 2 shows, initial US auto production schedules for Q3 have proven much too optimistic.<b>We have therefore cut our Q3 inventory accumulation forecast from $82bn to $32bn, though the turnaround from the sharp inventory drawdown in Q2 is still worth 4pp for Q3 GDP growth.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839e8bf2da50d0349da9d5254542ec1d\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">If that was the extent of it, we would probably not even bother with this note: after all it's just another example of Goldman just being wrong and failing to actually observe what is going on in the economy (something we described in detail in \"\"A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy\": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown\").</p><p><blockquote><ul><li></li><li>在生产方面，德尔塔变异毒株正在延长供应链中断，并推迟工厂活动的全面反弹。由于美国生产商难以满足强劲的消费者需求，第二季度生产停滞导致库存减少幅度超出预期，贸易逆差扩大。这在很大程度上解释了第二季度GDP增长最终令人失望的原因，但生产反弹和耗尽库存的重建（尤其是汽车制造商）似乎可能会提振第三季度的增长。</li><li><b>不幸的是，事实证明这种期望为时过早</b>本月早些时候，我们强调了亚太地区德尔塔变异毒株影响对全球供应链溢出的风险，该地区新的Covid限制比美国严格得多。自那以来，出现了更多挫折，包括马来西亚半导体生产商的问题和中国主要港口的关闭。</li><li>我们的汽车分析师指出，汽车制造商现在预计，半导体供应短缺对全球汽车生产的干扰在第三季度几乎与第二季度一样大，而且供应要到第三季度末或第四季度才会增加。如图表2所示，事实证明，美国第三季度最初的汽车生产计划过于乐观。<b>因此，我们将第三季度库存积累预测从820亿美元下调至320亿美元，尽管第二季度库存大幅减少的好转仍对第三季度GDP增长产生4个百分点的影响。</b></li></ul>如果是这样的话，我们可能甚至不会为这篇文章费心：毕竟，这只是高盛错误的另一个例子，未能实际观察经济中正在发生的事情（我们在“经济的突然负面变化：消费者支出下滑，因为大多数人现在预计会出现新的放缓”）。</blockquote></p><p> But sadly it gets worse. So much so that Goldman's note is not so much about the bank's latest me culpa on its GDP forecast (it will be slashed many more times in the coming months, that much we can guarantee) but that it was the first overt admission from Goldman that the US is heading for stagflation, because while Goldman is busy cutting its GDP forecast, it was also hiking its surging inflation forecast... and to those who don't know what stagflation is, now is a good time to look it up. Here again is Kostin:</p><p><blockquote>但可悲的是，情况变得更糟了。以至于高盛的报告与其说是关于该行对其GDP预测的最新指责（我们可以保证，未来几个月将会下调更多次），不如说是高盛首次公开承认美国正在走向滞胀，因为在高盛忙于下调GDP预测的同时，它也上调了飙升的通胀预测...对于那些不知道滞胀是什么的人来说，现在是查找滞胀的好时机。科斯汀又来了：</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Bigger Inflation Surge in 2021:</b>The impact of the Delta variant on supply chains is also likely to push prices even higher in the short run on some of the durable goods categories that have contributed to the inflation surge this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>2021年通胀将大幅飙升：</b>德尔塔变异毒株对供应链的影响也可能在短期内推高一些导致今年通胀飙升的耐用品类别的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   The left side of Exhibit 4 shows that, as a result of ongoing auto production problems, new car inventories are likely to fall to around 1 million, down more than 70% from pre-pandemic levels. This has led to much larger increases in new car prices in recent months than seen in many years. Our auto sector analysts expect further price increases over the next few months and then a partial return of promotional pricing at year-end as production normalizes, and we have revised our forecast accordingly.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b227704093b648b57adb0db20a0e245\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"480\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Other durable goods that are downstream from the semiconductor shortage—such as consumer electronics and household appliances, shown in Exhibit 5—have also seen much higher than usual inflation this year, reflecting both supply constraints and strong demand. Our sector analysts expect that many consumer electronics companies will announce price increases in the upcoming earnings season and that most major household appliance producers will also raise prices significantly further this year. We have therefore bumped up our forecasts for these categories too.</p><p><blockquote>图表4的左侧显示，由于持续的汽车生产问题，新车库存可能会降至100万辆左右，比大流行前的水平下降70%以上。这导致近几个月新车价格涨幅比多年来大得多。我们的汽车行业分析师预计，未来几个月价格将进一步上涨，然后随着生产正常化，促销定价将在年底部分回归，我们相应地修改了预测。半导体短缺下游的其他耐用品——如图表5所示的消费电子产品和家用电器——今年的通胀率也远高于往常，反映出供应限制和需求强劲。我们的行业分析师预计，许多消费电子公司将在即将到来的财报季宣布提价，大多数主要家用电器生产商今年也将进一步大幅提价。因此，我们也提高了对这些类别的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8455e62dd9048e1cb663f20fbb4bde\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But while one can, in theory, get away without spending on appliances, cars and video products, one has to eat. And sadly here the inflation is about to surge even higher.</p><p><blockquote>但是，虽然理论上一个人可以不花钱购买电器、汽车和视频产品，但他必须吃饭。可悲的是，这里的通货膨胀率将会飙升得更高。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>We also raised our short-term expectations for food services inflation.</b>In June we noted that higher wage growth for low-paid workers should flow through to higher consumer prices in sectors such as restaurants that rely heavily on low-paid labor.  <b>That has happened to an even greater extent than we anticipated in the last two CPI prints, and there is probably still a couple months of upward pressure left in the pipeline before the end of federal unemployment benefits cools wage and price pressures.</b>  The punchline: \"<b><u>We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to reach 3.75% at the end of 2021.</u></b><b>\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们还上调了对食品服务通胀的短期预期。</b>6月份，我们指出，低薪工人工资的更高增长应该会导致餐馆等严重依赖低薪劳动力的行业的消费者价格上涨。<b>这种情况的发生程度比我们在过去两次CPI数据中预期的还要大，在联邦失业救济金的结束冷却工资和价格压力之前，可能还有几个月的上行压力。</b>笑点：“<b><u>我们现在预计2021年底核心PCE同比通胀率将达到3.75%。</u></b><b>\"</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d5d6cea47a0e228a697ec6728db413\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"776\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">So putting it all together:<b>a drop in GDP + \"a bigger surge in inflation\" = stagflation.</b>We said as much in May \"This Is All About Stagflation... The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning\" and we are surprised it only took Goldman 3 months to catch up.</p><p><blockquote>所以把所有这些放在一起：<b>GDP下降+“通胀更大飙升”=滞胀。</b>我们在5月份也说过“这一切都与滞胀有关……美国正在进入第四次转折的早期阶段”，我们很惊讶高盛只用了3个月就赶上了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees \"Bigger Inflation Surge\"<blockquote>滞胀来了：高盛三周内第二次下调GDP预期，认为“通胀飙升幅度更大”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees \"Bigger Inflation Surge\"<blockquote>滞胀来了：高盛三周内第二次下调GDP预期，认为“通胀飙升幅度更大”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 14:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.</p><p><blockquote>它持续的时候很好，但是派对已经结束了。</blockquote></p><p> Just three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut its 2021 second half consumption growth forecast, resulting in 1% downgrade to its GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to +8.5% and +5.0%, respectively, \"as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust\" as the bank had expected. Which is odd considering the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that have entered into the economy. One wonder how many more trillions would be needed for Goldman to be happy.</p><p><blockquote>就在三周前，高盛（Goldman Sachs）——去年是第一家公布大幅高于普遍预期GDP预测的银行——下调了2021年下半年消费增长预测，导致第三季度和第四季度GDP增长预测下调1%至+8.5%和+5.0%，“因为越来越明显的是，美国服务业的复苏不太可能像该行预期的那样强劲”。考虑到数万亿美元的货币和财政刺激已经进入经济，这很奇怪。人们不禁要问，高盛还需要多少万亿美元才能幸福。</blockquote></p><p> But while Goldman's expected 2021 slowdown was manageable,<b>it got far worse in 2022, when the sluggishness is expected to truly hammer the growth rate, which Goldman now expected to shrink to a trend-like 1.5% - 2% by the second half of 2022, a far \"sharper deceleration than consensus expects.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>但尽管高盛预计2021年经济放缓是可控的，<b>2022年情况变得更糟，预计经济低迷将真正打击增长率，高盛目前预计，到2022年下半年，增长率将萎缩至趋势性的1.5%-2%，“减速幅度远高于市场普遍预期”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e05ecd5001da54cf0ba72fe0dfd3d65b\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In retrospect, the bad news was just starting.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，坏消息才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> As frequent readers recall, just yesterday we pointed out that US economic growth \"suddenly collapsed\" as the latest dismal retail sales print showed, validating the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey which saw a collapse in expectations for everything from growth, to profits and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>正如经常阅读的读者回忆的那样，就在昨天，我们指出，正如最新惨淡的零售销售数据所显示的那样，美国经济增长“突然崩溃”，这证实了美国银行基金经理的最新调查，该调查显示，从增长到利润和通胀的所有预期都崩溃了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0535f1d343fd85a5852ce78ffe00ef\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In response, Bank of America's chief economist Michelle Meyer wrotes that \"after adjusting for higher prices (PCE deflator of 4.4% qoq saar), the softening in nominal spending<b>leads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%.</b>\" Plugging that number into the bigger GDP model, and BofA now finds that \"the economy is running at a slower pace in 3Q,\" and<b>currently tracking just 4.5% following the retail sales report,</b>down from the bank's official forecast of 7% qoq saa, which is about to come down significantly.</p><p><blockquote>对此，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer写道，“在对价格上涨（PCE平减指数环比为4.4%）进行调整后，名义支出的疲软<b>导致我们跟踪第三季度实际消费者支出的saar环比仅为1.5%。此前，第二季度实际消费跟踪为12.3%。</b>“将这个数字插入更大的GDP模型，美国银行现在发现“第三季度经济运行速度放缓”，并且<b>目前零售销售报告发布后仅追踪4.5%，</b>低于该行官方预测的环比SAA 7%，该预测即将大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> Just hours later, Goldman strategist Chris Hussey chimed in with a preview of what was coming writing that \"the combination of lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, and given an increasingly likely drag on services consumption from the Delta variant, our economists are will likely revise our second-half growth assumptions even as we still do not expect material economic impact from the Delta variant in the US amidst abundant vaccine supply and relatively permissive COVID policies.\"</p><p><blockquote>仅仅几个小时后，高盛策略师Chris Hussey就对即将发生的事情进行了预览，他写道，“7月份零售额和汽车产量低于预期，考虑到德尔塔变异毒株对服务消费的拖累越来越大，我们的经济学家可能会修改我们对下半年增长的假设，尽管在疫苗供应充足和新冠政策相对宽松的情况下，我们仍然预计美国德尔塔变异毒株不会对经济产生重大影响。”</blockquote></p><p> Well, he was right, and moments ago - for the second time in under a month -<b>Goldman has slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to just 5.5% from 8.5% as of late July (and 9.5% previously),</b>as Goldman's chief economist now warns that \"the impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected.\"</p><p><blockquote>嗯，他是对的，就在刚才——不到一个月内第二次——<b>高盛已将第三季度GDP预测从7月底的8.5%（此前为9.5%）下调至仅5.5%，</b>正如高盛首席经济学家现在警告的那样，“事实证明，德尔塔变异毒株对增长和通胀的影响比我们预期的要大一些。”</blockquote></p><p>   We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.  The bank's revised forecast also trims its full year 2021 GDP forecast to below consensus 6% (vs. 6.4% previously and 6.2% consensus) and leads to 2022 growth of 4.5%, a number which at this rate will soon be slashed to 0 or negative.</p><p><blockquote>我们已将第三季度GDP预测下调至+5.5%，反映出消费者支出和生产受到的打击。八月份餐饮、旅游和其他一些服务支出可能会下降，尽管我们预计下降幅度不大且短暂。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度的库存重建减少。央行修订后的预测还将2021年全年GDP预测下调至6%以下（此前为6.4%，市场普遍预期为6.2%），并导致2022年增长4.5%，按照这个速度，这一数字很快将被削减至0或负数。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cac3d7e08c01e3117276cba4e98c1719\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Here are some more details from Goldman behind the sharp cut to GDP, which it blames on - what else - the convenient Delta variant, and not t - say - that US consumers were once again tapped out, and with no more stimmy cash and savings all spent, was instead borrowingliterally<i><b>record</b></i>amounts on their credit cards.</p><p><blockquote>以下是高盛在GDP大幅削减背后提供的更多细节，它将其归咎于——还有什么——便利的德尔塔变异毒株，而不是t-说——美国消费者再次被耗尽，并且不再有刺激的现金和储蓄全部花掉，而是字面上的借贷<i><b>记录</b></i>他们信用卡上的金额。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d88ea371481a13ae37ab8a93ba87bfc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Anyway, here is how Goldman feeds the \"but Delta\" fiction:</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，高盛是如何助长“但是三角洲”的虚构的：</blockquote></p><p> The Delta variant is weighing on both consumer spending and production in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔变异毒株给第三季度的消费者支出和生产带来压力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   On the consumption side, we cut our 2021H2 forecast slightly last month, anticipating that renewed virus spread would delay a full recovery of the office-adjacent economy and the most virus-sensitive services, such as entertainment events. But the decline in retail sales in July and the drop-off in our consumer spending tracker through early August, shown in Exhibit 1, suggest a larger slowdown in spending than we expected.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2130c6999cfd9d7ab6962e752ee316f\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"530\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Forward-looking indicators also point to a further pullback in services spending. OpenTable data show a roughly 7% decline in restaurant reservations since the end of July, travel companies report an increase in cancellations and a modest decline in bookings, and press reports note that some hospitals are again delaying elective surgeries to clear capacity for Covid patients.</p><p><blockquote>在消费方面，我们上个月小幅下调了2021年下半年的预测，预计病毒的重新传播将推迟办公室附近经济和对病毒最敏感的服务（例如娱乐活动）的全面复苏。但如图表1所示，7月份零售额的下降以及截至8月初消费者支出跟踪数据的下降表明支出放缓幅度超出了我们的预期。前瞻性指标还表明服务支出将进一步回落。OpenTable数据显示，自7月底以来，餐厅预订量下降了约7%，旅游公司报告取消预订量增加，预订量略有下降，新闻报道指出，一些医院再次推迟择期手术，以清理新冠患者的容量。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman also decided to blame supply-chain bottlenecks - the same bottlenecks that were patently obvious last month yet when countless penguins, like Goldman, expected them to be \"transitory.\" Well, they aren't looking so transitory now, eh?</p><p><blockquote>高盛还决定将责任归咎于供应链瓶颈——同样的瓶颈在上个月显而易见，当时无数像高盛一样的企鹅预计它们只是“暂时的”。嗯，他们现在看起来不那么短暂了，嗯？</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li></li>  <li>On the production side, the Delta variant is prolonging supply chain disruptions and delaying a full rebound of factory activity. Production holdups in Q2 led to a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown and widening of the trade deficit as US producers struggled to meet strong consumer demand. This accounted for much of the eventual disappointment on Q2 GDP growth, but a rebound in production and the rebuild of depleted inventories—especially at automakers—appeared likely to boost Q3 growth.</li>  <li><b>Unfortunately, that expectation has proven premature</b>. Earlier this month we highlighted the risk of global supply chain spillovers from the impact of the Delta variant in the Asia Pacific region, where new Covid restrictions are much more stringent than in the US. Since then more setbacks have emerged, including problems for semiconductor producers in Malaysia and a major port closure in China.</li>  <li>Our autos analysts note that automakers now expect that the disruption from the semiconductor supply shortage to global auto production will be nearly as large in Q3 as in Q2 and that supply will not increase until late Q3 or Q4. As Exhibit 2 shows, initial US auto production schedules for Q3 have proven much too optimistic.<b>We have therefore cut our Q3 inventory accumulation forecast from $82bn to $32bn, though the turnaround from the sharp inventory drawdown in Q2 is still worth 4pp for Q3 GDP growth.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839e8bf2da50d0349da9d5254542ec1d\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">If that was the extent of it, we would probably not even bother with this note: after all it's just another example of Goldman just being wrong and failing to actually observe what is going on in the economy (something we described in detail in \"\"A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy\": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown\").</p><p><blockquote><ul><li></li><li>在生产方面，德尔塔变异毒株正在延长供应链中断，并推迟工厂活动的全面反弹。由于美国生产商难以满足强劲的消费者需求，第二季度生产停滞导致库存减少幅度超出预期，贸易逆差扩大。这在很大程度上解释了第二季度GDP增长最终令人失望的原因，但生产反弹和耗尽库存的重建（尤其是汽车制造商）似乎可能会提振第三季度的增长。</li><li><b>不幸的是，事实证明这种期望为时过早</b>本月早些时候，我们强调了亚太地区德尔塔变异毒株影响对全球供应链溢出的风险，该地区新的Covid限制比美国严格得多。自那以来，出现了更多挫折，包括马来西亚半导体生产商的问题和中国主要港口的关闭。</li><li>我们的汽车分析师指出，汽车制造商现在预计，半导体供应短缺对全球汽车生产的干扰在第三季度几乎与第二季度一样大，而且供应要到第三季度末或第四季度才会增加。如图表2所示，事实证明，美国第三季度最初的汽车生产计划过于乐观。<b>因此，我们将第三季度库存积累预测从820亿美元下调至320亿美元，尽管第二季度库存大幅减少的好转仍对第三季度GDP增长产生4个百分点的影响。</b></li></ul>如果是这样的话，我们可能甚至不会为这篇文章费心：毕竟，这只是高盛错误的另一个例子，未能实际观察经济中正在发生的事情（我们在“经济的突然负面变化：消费者支出下滑，因为大多数人现在预计会出现新的放缓”）。</blockquote></p><p> But sadly it gets worse. So much so that Goldman's note is not so much about the bank's latest me culpa on its GDP forecast (it will be slashed many more times in the coming months, that much we can guarantee) but that it was the first overt admission from Goldman that the US is heading for stagflation, because while Goldman is busy cutting its GDP forecast, it was also hiking its surging inflation forecast... and to those who don't know what stagflation is, now is a good time to look it up. Here again is Kostin:</p><p><blockquote>但可悲的是，情况变得更糟了。以至于高盛的报告与其说是关于该行对其GDP预测的最新指责（我们可以保证，未来几个月将会下调更多次），不如说是高盛首次公开承认美国正在走向滞胀，因为在高盛忙于下调GDP预测的同时，它也上调了飙升的通胀预测...对于那些不知道滞胀是什么的人来说，现在是查找滞胀的好时机。科斯汀又来了：</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Bigger Inflation Surge in 2021:</b>The impact of the Delta variant on supply chains is also likely to push prices even higher in the short run on some of the durable goods categories that have contributed to the inflation surge this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>2021年通胀将大幅飙升：</b>德尔塔变异毒株对供应链的影响也可能在短期内推高一些导致今年通胀飙升的耐用品类别的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   The left side of Exhibit 4 shows that, as a result of ongoing auto production problems, new car inventories are likely to fall to around 1 million, down more than 70% from pre-pandemic levels. This has led to much larger increases in new car prices in recent months than seen in many years. Our auto sector analysts expect further price increases over the next few months and then a partial return of promotional pricing at year-end as production normalizes, and we have revised our forecast accordingly.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b227704093b648b57adb0db20a0e245\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"480\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Other durable goods that are downstream from the semiconductor shortage—such as consumer electronics and household appliances, shown in Exhibit 5—have also seen much higher than usual inflation this year, reflecting both supply constraints and strong demand. Our sector analysts expect that many consumer electronics companies will announce price increases in the upcoming earnings season and that most major household appliance producers will also raise prices significantly further this year. We have therefore bumped up our forecasts for these categories too.</p><p><blockquote>图表4的左侧显示，由于持续的汽车生产问题，新车库存可能会降至100万辆左右，比大流行前的水平下降70%以上。这导致近几个月新车价格涨幅比多年来大得多。我们的汽车行业分析师预计，未来几个月价格将进一步上涨，然后随着生产正常化，促销定价将在年底部分回归，我们相应地修改了预测。半导体短缺下游的其他耐用品——如图表5所示的消费电子产品和家用电器——今年的通胀率也远高于往常，反映出供应限制和需求强劲。我们的行业分析师预计，许多消费电子公司将在即将到来的财报季宣布提价，大多数主要家用电器生产商今年也将进一步大幅提价。因此，我们也提高了对这些类别的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8455e62dd9048e1cb663f20fbb4bde\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But while one can, in theory, get away without spending on appliances, cars and video products, one has to eat. And sadly here the inflation is about to surge even higher.</p><p><blockquote>但是，虽然理论上一个人可以不花钱购买电器、汽车和视频产品，但他必须吃饭。可悲的是，这里的通货膨胀率将会飙升得更高。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>We also raised our short-term expectations for food services inflation.</b>In June we noted that higher wage growth for low-paid workers should flow through to higher consumer prices in sectors such as restaurants that rely heavily on low-paid labor.  <b>That has happened to an even greater extent than we anticipated in the last two CPI prints, and there is probably still a couple months of upward pressure left in the pipeline before the end of federal unemployment benefits cools wage and price pressures.</b>  The punchline: \"<b><u>We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to reach 3.75% at the end of 2021.</u></b><b>\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们还上调了对食品服务通胀的短期预期。</b>6月份，我们指出，低薪工人工资的更高增长应该会导致餐馆等严重依赖低薪劳动力的行业的消费者价格上涨。<b>这种情况的发生程度比我们在过去两次CPI数据中预期的还要大，在联邦失业救济金的结束冷却工资和价格压力之前，可能还有几个月的上行压力。</b>笑点：“<b><u>我们现在预计2021年底核心PCE同比通胀率将达到3.75%。</u></b><b>\"</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d5d6cea47a0e228a697ec6728db413\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"776\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">So putting it all together:<b>a drop in GDP + \"a bigger surge in inflation\" = stagflation.</b>We said as much in May \"This Is All About Stagflation... The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning\" and we are surprised it only took Goldman 3 months to catch up.</p><p><blockquote>所以把所有这些放在一起：<b>GDP下降+“通胀更大飙升”=滞胀。</b>我们在5月份也说过“这一切都与滞胀有关……美国正在进入第四次转折的早期阶段”，我们很惊讶高盛只用了3个月就赶上了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-stagflation-goldman-slashes-gdp-estimate-second-time-3-weeks-sees-bigger\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-stagflation-goldman-slashes-gdp-estimate-second-time-3-weeks-sees-bigger","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161694085","content_text":"It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.\nJust three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut its 2021 second half consumption growth forecast, resulting in 1% downgrade to its GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to +8.5% and +5.0%, respectively, \"as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust\" as the bank had expected. Which is odd considering the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that have entered into the economy. One wonder how many more trillions would be needed for Goldman to be happy.\nBut while Goldman's expected 2021 slowdown was manageable,it got far worse in 2022, when the sluggishness is expected to truly hammer the growth rate, which Goldman now expected to shrink to a trend-like 1.5% - 2% by the second half of 2022, a far \"sharper deceleration than consensus expects.\"\nIn retrospect, the bad news was just starting.\nAs frequent readers recall, just yesterday we pointed out that US economic growth \"suddenly collapsed\" as the latest dismal retail sales print showed, validating the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey which saw a collapse in expectations for everything from growth, to profits and inflation.\nIn response, Bank of America's chief economist Michelle Meyer wrotes that \"after adjusting for higher prices (PCE deflator of 4.4% qoq saar), the softening in nominal spendingleads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%.\" Plugging that number into the bigger GDP model, and BofA now finds that \"the economy is running at a slower pace in 3Q,\" andcurrently tracking just 4.5% following the retail sales report,down from the bank's official forecast of 7% qoq saa, which is about to come down significantly.\nJust hours later, Goldman strategist Chris Hussey chimed in with a preview of what was coming writing that \"the combination of lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, and given an increasingly likely drag on services consumption from the Delta variant, our economists are will likely revise our second-half growth assumptions even as we still do not expect material economic impact from the Delta variant in the US amidst abundant vaccine supply and relatively permissive COVID policies.\"\nWell, he was right, and moments ago - for the second time in under a month -Goldman has slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to just 5.5% from 8.5% as of late July (and 9.5% previously),as Goldman's chief economist now warns that \"the impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected.\"\n\n We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.\n\nThe bank's revised forecast also trims its full year 2021 GDP forecast to below consensus 6% (vs. 6.4% previously and 6.2% consensus) and leads to 2022 growth of 4.5%, a number which at this rate will soon be slashed to 0 or negative.\nHere are some more details from Goldman behind the sharp cut to GDP, which it blames on - what else - the convenient Delta variant, and not t - say - that US consumers were once again tapped out, and with no more stimmy cash and savings all spent, was instead borrowingliterallyrecordamounts on their credit cards.\nAnyway, here is how Goldman feeds the \"but Delta\" fiction:\nThe Delta variant is weighing on both consumer spending and production in Q3.\n\n On the consumption side, we cut our 2021H2 forecast slightly last month, anticipating that renewed virus spread would delay a full recovery of the office-adjacent economy and the most virus-sensitive services, such as entertainment events. But the decline in retail sales in July and the drop-off in our consumer spending tracker through early August, shown in Exhibit 1, suggest a larger slowdown in spending than we expected.\n\nForward-looking indicators also point to a further pullback in services spending. OpenTable data show a roughly 7% decline in restaurant reservations since the end of July, travel companies report an increase in cancellations and a modest decline in bookings, and press reports note that some hospitals are again delaying elective surgeries to clear capacity for Covid patients.\nGoldman also decided to blame supply-chain bottlenecks - the same bottlenecks that were patently obvious last month yet when countless penguins, like Goldman, expected them to be \"transitory.\" Well, they aren't looking so transitory now, eh?\n\n\nOn the production side, the Delta variant is prolonging supply chain disruptions and delaying a full rebound of factory activity. Production holdups in Q2 led to a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown and widening of the trade deficit as US producers struggled to meet strong consumer demand. This accounted for much of the eventual disappointment on Q2 GDP growth, but a rebound in production and the rebuild of depleted inventories—especially at automakers—appeared likely to boost Q3 growth.\nUnfortunately, that expectation has proven premature. Earlier this month we highlighted the risk of global supply chain spillovers from the impact of the Delta variant in the Asia Pacific region, where new Covid restrictions are much more stringent than in the US. Since then more setbacks have emerged, including problems for semiconductor producers in Malaysia and a major port closure in China.\nOur autos analysts note that automakers now expect that the disruption from the semiconductor supply shortage to global auto production will be nearly as large in Q3 as in Q2 and that supply will not increase until late Q3 or Q4. As Exhibit 2 shows, initial US auto production schedules for Q3 have proven much too optimistic.We have therefore cut our Q3 inventory accumulation forecast from $82bn to $32bn, though the turnaround from the sharp inventory drawdown in Q2 is still worth 4pp for Q3 GDP growth.\n\nIf that was the extent of it, we would probably not even bother with this note: after all it's just another example of Goldman just being wrong and failing to actually observe what is going on in the economy (something we described in detail in \"\"A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy\": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown\").\nBut sadly it gets worse. So much so that Goldman's note is not so much about the bank's latest me culpa on its GDP forecast (it will be slashed many more times in the coming months, that much we can guarantee) but that it was the first overt admission from Goldman that the US is heading for stagflation, because while Goldman is busy cutting its GDP forecast, it was also hiking its surging inflation forecast... and to those who don't know what stagflation is, now is a good time to look it up. Here again is Kostin:\nA Bigger Inflation Surge in 2021:The impact of the Delta variant on supply chains is also likely to push prices even higher in the short run on some of the durable goods categories that have contributed to the inflation surge this year.\n\n The left side of Exhibit 4 shows that, as a result of ongoing auto production problems, new car inventories are likely to fall to around 1 million, down more than 70% from pre-pandemic levels. This has led to much larger increases in new car prices in recent months than seen in many years. Our auto sector analysts expect further price increases over the next few months and then a partial return of promotional pricing at year-end as production normalizes, and we have revised our forecast accordingly.\n\nOther durable goods that are downstream from the semiconductor shortage—such as consumer electronics and household appliances, shown in Exhibit 5—have also seen much higher than usual inflation this year, reflecting both supply constraints and strong demand. Our sector analysts expect that many consumer electronics companies will announce price increases in the upcoming earnings season and that most major household appliance producers will also raise prices significantly further this year. We have therefore bumped up our forecasts for these categories too.\nBut while one can, in theory, get away without spending on appliances, cars and video products, one has to eat. And sadly here the inflation is about to surge even higher.\n\nWe also raised our short-term expectations for food services inflation.In June we noted that higher wage growth for low-paid workers should flow through to higher consumer prices in sectors such as restaurants that rely heavily on low-paid labor.\n That has happened to an even greater extent than we anticipated in the last two CPI prints, and there is probably still a couple months of upward pressure left in the pipeline before the end of federal unemployment benefits cools wage and price pressures.\n\nThe punchline: \"We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to reach 3.75% at the end of 2021.\"\nSo putting it all together:a drop in GDP + \"a bigger surge in inflation\" = stagflation.We said as much in May \"This Is All About Stagflation... The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning\" and we are surprised it only took Goldman 3 months to catch up.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104208637,"gmtCreate":1620391078929,"gmtModify":1634205587046,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It is probably the most boring company&nbsp;","listText":"It is probably the most boring company&nbsp;","text":"It is probably the most boring company","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104208637","repostId":"1157328258","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157328258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620360165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157328258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157328258","media":"Seeking alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entere","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Most Clearly Undervalued Company<blockquote>亚马逊：最明显被低估的公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-07 12:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.</li><li>In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.</li><li>DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.</li></ul>I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。</li><li>就比较估值而言，AMZN相对于市场被低估。</li><li>基于DCF的亚马逊股价目标显示30%的上涨潜力。但我认为这甚至不是一个基本的情景，而是一个悲观的情景。</li></ul>我根据上个季度的业绩对亚马逊（AMZN）进行了全面的分析。</blockquote></p><p>#1 Price vs. Growth</p><p><blockquote>#1价格与增长</blockquote></p><p>First of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来评估一下我们是否可以从统计数据上说明亚马逊上个季度的增长是加速还是放缓。为此，让我们比较一下有和没有过去四个季度业绩的公司关键部门的收入增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:</p><p><blockquote>“在线商店”部分的动态显示出质的突破。在不考虑过去四个季度的情况下，这里观察到了接近线性的趋势。现在，它已经成为指数级增长：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac49a9df0e5b978dc15e20bedfce3da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:</p><p><blockquote>“第三方卖家服务”细分市场——指数级增长仍在继续：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b58df42726bc01c8a5e5c2940d0476d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>“订阅服务”（Amazon Prime）细分市场——这里的加速仍然存在，上个季度的结果好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58095394bdd79d561166a74942a9e55\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>“其他”（广告服务）部门也显示出显着的加速：</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>The growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:</p><p><blockquote>‘Amazon Web Services’的增长趋势有所放缓，但从上个季度的结果来看，有逐渐回归之前的趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07069ccaab37c32eed56da69881e7bce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Geographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:</p><p><blockquote>从地域上看，亚马逊的营收也明显好于趋势：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d9246e5c01aac6c62e49ad7cd73e2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7276161a3d2b2159ab3d727d3cb7d9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>So, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growth</i><i><b>in all key segments</b></i><i>. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，从统计上，而不是主观上，我们应该认识到公司增长的加速</i><i><b>在所有关键细分市场</b></i><i>.在我看来，这正是人们对亚马逊的期望。</i></blockquote></p><p>Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:</p><p><blockquote>更远地。在过去10年中，亚马逊的资本化与其收入呈定性线性关系：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f105c314902d29dae4d0f0e400aa2245\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>There is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:</p><p><blockquote>公司营收增速对其倍数也有一定影响：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8beca01b5624a15aab79465c580ded6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p>Based on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:</p><p><blockquote>基于这两种关系，并考虑到美国货币存量增长的影响，有可能建立另一个模型，使我们能够确定公司资本化的平衡水平。此外，该模型允许根据分析师当前对公司未来四个季度收入增长的预期来模拟公司资本的增长。这是这个模型：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083fa1dc350e5e54cc7d3145744c9e4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63f0cff5e0dd83343d26ee90552a033\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is already</i><i><b>below the balanced level</b></i><i>. And secondly, it assumes a</i><i><b>25% growth</b></i><i>in capitalization in the next four quarters.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，首先，这个模型表明公司当前的价格已经</i><i><b>低于平衡水平</b></i><i>其次，它假设</i><i><b>25%增长</b></i><i>未来四个季度的资本化。</i></blockquote></p><p>#2 Comparative Valuation</p><p><blockquote>#2比较估值</blockquote></p><p>In the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:</p><p><blockquote>在上一个模块中，我根据收入对亚马逊的均衡价格进行了建模。值得注意的是，如果我们用同样的方法使用倍数对公司进行比较估值，我们就会失败。至少我还没有找到一个基于收入的倍数来成功地将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较。但根据预期每股收益年增长率调整后的远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数使得找到合适的模型成为可能：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ac0310bcef622e12c8c21d46979f7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d7573ff8a7fc00719a51042f09fc989\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></blockquote></p><p><i>As you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如你所看到的，从这个倍数来看，亚马逊被严重低估了。</i></blockquote></p><p>#3 Discounted Cash Flow Model</p><p><blockquote>#3贴现现金流模型</blockquote></p><p>When predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f41298db73dbcd92469026cc4e767c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</i></blockquote></p><p>When predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在预测亚马逊营业利润率的动态时，我也从分析师对公司每股收益增长的预期出发，并考虑到税率逐渐提高到25%。在我看来，在终端年将营业利润率逐步提高到8%是一个非常现实的情况。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759163398701e54efd7cfabd11a0867d\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p>Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).</li><li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li><li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li></ul>Here is the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.6%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值（0.92）。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>以下是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df02bca01b3ef74d3b640d95eb00590\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(In high resolution)</p><p><blockquote>（高分辨率）</blockquote></p><p><i>Source: Author</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：作者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>The DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚马逊股票基于DCF的目标价为4,280美元，上涨空间为29%。</i></blockquote></p><p>Final thoughts</p><p><blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Amazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.</li><li>The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company is<b>undervalued</b>.</li><li>Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company is<b>much cheaper</b>than the market.</li><li>DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.</li><li>When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,<i>it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems</i>.</li></ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>亚马逊是增长尚未达到极限，甚至还没有进入平台期的公司之一。从某种意义上说，这是一家拥有730亿美元现金的初创公司。</li><li>亚马逊仍处于加速阶段的事实并不意味着其市值不断被低估。但在这种情况下，根据公司的资本化和收入参数之间的模式，我们可以得出结论，公司是<b>被低估</b>.</li><li>通过预期每股收益增长的棱镜将亚马逊与其他公司进行比较，必须承认该公司是<b>便宜多了</b>比市场。</li><li>基于平均预期的DCF模型分析师表示低估了30%。今年年初，类似的模型显示估值被低估了20%。</li><li>当你看亚马逊未来十年的收入预测时，你会意识到该公司将面临增长问题。但在我看来，<i>投资一家面临增长问题的公司比投资老龄化问题的公司更好</i>.</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company\">Seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4424794-amazon-clearly-undervalued-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157328258","content_text":"SummaryAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase.In terms of comparative valuation, AMZN is undervalued against the market.DCF-based Amazon stock price target suggests 30% upside potential. But I think this is not even a basic scenario, but a pessimistic scenario.I present my comprehensive Amazon (AMZN) analysis in light of the results of the last quarter.#1 Price vs. GrowthFirst of all, let's assess whether we can statistically state that Amazon's growth has accelerated or slowed down in the last quarter. To do this, let's compare the revenue growth trends of the key segments of the company with and without the results of the last four quarters.The dynamics of the 'Online Stores' segment showed a qualitative breakthrough. Without taking into account the last four quarters, a near-linear trend was observed here. Now, it has become exponential:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Third-Party Seller Services' segment - the exponential growth continues:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Subscription Services' (Amazon Prime) segment - here the acceleration remains, and the result of the last quarter was better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe 'Other' (advertising services) segment has also showed a significant acceleration:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThe growth trend of 'Amazon Web Services' has slowed down, but judging by the results of the last quarter, there is a gradual return to the previous trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comGeographically, Amazon's revenue was also significantly better than the trend:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comSo, statistically, not subjectively, we should recognize the acceleration of the company's growthin all key segments. In my opinion, this is exactly what is expected from Amazon.Further. Over the last 10 years, Amazon's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comThere is also a certain influence of the company's revenue growth rate on its multiples:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comBased on these two relationships and taking into account the influence of the growth of theM2 money stockin the US, it is possible to build another model that allows us to determine the balanced level of the company's capitalization. In addition, this model allows to model the growth of the company's capitalization based on the current expectations of analysts regarding the company's revenue growth in the next four quarters. Here is this model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, firstly, this model indicates that the company's current price is alreadybelow the balanced level. And secondly, it assumes a25% growthin capitalization in the next four quarters.#2 Comparative ValuationIn the previous block, I modeled Amazon's balanced price based on revenue. What is remarkable is that if we apply the same approach to the comparative valuation of the company using multiples, we will fail. At least I have not been able to find a single revenue-based multiple that would make it possible to successfully compare Amazon to other companies. But the forward P/E (next FY) multiple adjusted by the expected EPS annual growth rate made it possible to find a suitable model:Source: VisualizedAnalytics.comAs you can see, judging by this multiple, Amazon is significantly undervalued.#3 Discounted Cash Flow ModelWhen predicting Amazon's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations ofanalysts:Source: Seeking Alpha ProWhen predicting the dynamics of Amazon's operating margin, I also proceeded from analysts'expectationsregarding the growth of the company's EPS, and taking into account the gradual increase in the tax rate to 25%. In my opinion, a gradual increase in the operating margin to 8% in the terminal year is a very realistic scenario.Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:Source: AuthorSome explanations:In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.6%).I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient (0.92). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.Here is the model itself:(In high resolution)Source: AuthorThe DCF-based target price of Amazon's shares is $4,280, offering 29% upside.Final thoughtsAmazon is one of the companies whose growth has not yet reached its limit and not even entered the plateau phase. In a sense, this is a startup with $73 billion cash.The fact that Amazon remains in the acceleration phase does not mean that its capitalization is constantly undervalued. But in this case, based on the patterns between the company's capitalization and the parameters of its revenue, we can conclude that the company isundervalued.Comparing Amazon to other companies through the prism of expected EPS growth, it must be admitted that the company ismuch cheaperthan the market.DCF model based on average expectations analysts indicate a 30% undervaluation. At the start of the year, a similarmodelindicated a 20% undervaluation.When you look at Amazon's revenue forecast for the next decade, you realize that the company will face growth problems. But in my opinion,it is better to invest in a company facing growth problems than aging problems.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105309100,"gmtCreate":1620267077300,"gmtModify":1634206511206,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$SKLZ - investors concerned over plateauing MAU (monthly average users)","listText":"$SKLZ - investors concerned over plateauing MAU (monthly average users)","text":"$SKLZ - investors concerned over plateauing MAU (monthly average users)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85d2d2d8b52e598aa7b64a5fe8ac8eef","width":"750","height":"1857"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105309100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105974397,"gmtCreate":1620266936219,"gmtModify":1634206513774,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like thanks in advance!","listText":"Pls like thanks in advance!","text":"Pls like thanks in advance!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105974397","repostId":"2133528417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372740974,"gmtCreate":1619247937898,"gmtModify":1631885093816,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>The TIGR promo is legit!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>The TIGR promo is legit!","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$The TIGR promo is legit!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9f0dd118972aa1288ca68c9abe6257","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372740974","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838083037,"gmtCreate":1629358263729,"gmtModify":1633685435515,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581990975957849","idStr":"3581990975957849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Check out this trading strategy&nbsp;that shorted AMZN!event.algomerchant.com/viki","listText":"Check out this trading strategy&nbsp;that shorted AMZN!event.algomerchant.com/viki","text":"Check out this trading strategy that shorted AMZN!event.algomerchant.com/viki","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838083037","repostId":"1152703663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}