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Domgoh77

Domgoh77

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2021-12-15

Slooty

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2021-12-02

Gd

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2021-12-01

Hi

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2021-07-23

Nice

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2021-07-22

Nice

Apple Planning 5G-Enabled Budget iPhone: Report<blockquote>苹果计划支持5G的廉价iPhone：报告</blockquote>

2021-07-22

Good

Behind The Market's Furious Reversal: Record High Skew<blockquote>市场疯狂逆转的背后：创纪录的高位偏差</blockquote>

2021-07-11

Good

The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>

2021-06-30

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Didi Prices Its IPO at $14. Shares of the Chinese Ride-Hailing Giant Start Trading on Wednesday.<blockquote>滴滴将其IPO定价为14美元。这家中国网约车巨头的股票将于周三开始交易。</blockquote>

2021-06-26

Good

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2021-06-23

N

Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>

2021-06-23

Nice

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2021-06-22

Good

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2021-06-19

Nice

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2021-06-18

Good

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2021-06-18

Nice

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2021-06-18

Good

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2021-06-17

Wow

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2021-06-16

Good

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2021-06-16

Nice

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2021-06-15

Tell me your opinion about this news...

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11:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Planning 5G-Enabled Budget iPhone: Report<blockquote>苹果计划支持5G的廉价iPhone：报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170597291","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple, Inc. is gearing up to launch the next iteration of its iPhone — theiPhone 13— in September, a","content":"<p><div> Apple, Inc. is gearing up to launch the next iteration of its iPhone — theiPhone 13— in September, and analysts are optimistic concerning continued momentum for Cupertino's flagship product. It now ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司正准备在9月份推出下一代iPhone——iPhone 13，分析师对库比蒂诺旗舰产品的持续发展势头持乐观态度。它现在...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Planning 5G-Enabled Budget iPhone: Report<blockquote>苹果计划支持5G的廉价iPhone：报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Planning 5G-Enabled Budget iPhone: Report<blockquote>苹果计划支持5G的廉价iPhone：报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Apple, Inc. is gearing up to launch the next iteration of its iPhone — theiPhone 13— in September, and analysts are optimistic concerning continued momentum for Cupertino's flagship product. It now ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司正准备在9月份推出下一代iPhone——iPhone 13，分析师对库比蒂诺旗舰产品的持续发展势头持乐观态度。它现在...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170597291","content_text":"Apple, Inc. is gearing up to launch the next iteration of its iPhone — theiPhone 13— in September, and analysts are optimistic concerning continued momentum for Cupertino's flagship product.\nIt now appears the tech giant is laying the groundwork for a follow-up budget model.\nWhat Happened:Apple's next budget iPhone, which is suffixed \"SE,\" could be launched as early as the first half of 2022, and it will come armed with an in-house A15 processor that is an integral part of premium iPhones, the Nikkei reported.\nThe iPhone SE model will have 5G connectivity powered by Qualcomm Incorporated's X60 modem chips, the report said.\nWith the planned 5G-enabled iPhone SE, Apple's iPhone portfolio will be complete with a full range of 5G offerings, Nikkei said.\nApple's budget 5G iPhone, according to the report, will look like a refreshed iPhone 8 version, and have a 4.7-inch liquid crystal diode display as opposed to the OLED displays used in theiPhone 12 lineup.\nWhy It's Important:The first iPhone SE was released in 2016, and the next budget model came out in April 2020. The iPhone SE released in 2020 was priced at $399.\nThe SE version makes iPhones affordable to the low end of the market, benefiting unit sales.\nApple plans to transition fully to 5G phones in 2021, Nikkei said.\nMini On Its Way Out:Additionally, Apple plans to phase out its iPhone Mini model in 2022 given its lack of appeal among users. Instead, the company is likely to release a relatively cost-effective iPhone Pro Max version, according to the report.\nThis will keep the iPhone models released in the second half of 2022 at four — two 6.1-inch handsets and two 6.7-inch ones, the report said, citing sources.\nAt last check, Apple shares were down 0.53% at $145.37.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176501546,"gmtCreate":1626904436485,"gmtModify":1633770017810,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176501546","repostId":"1144363960","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144363960","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626877711,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144363960?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Behind The Market's Furious Reversal: Record High Skew<blockquote>市场疯狂逆转的背后：创纪录的高位偏差</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144363960","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the end of June, when the S&P was making new all time highs day after day, and when the VIX was t","content":"<p>At the end of June, when the S&amp;P was making new all time highs day after day, and when the VIX was touching fresh 2021 lows, we cautioned that the skew index just hit a new all time high - meaning that put options have been unusually expensive relative to at-the-money options, helping support the put-heavy VIX index. As we further added, high skew, which compares put option prices with at-the-money option prices, has reached new all-time high,&nbsp;<b>and reflected investor perception that high volatility would return should markets sell off.</b></p><p><blockquote>6月底，当标准普尔指数日复一日地创下历史新高，当VIX触及2021年新低时，我们警告称，skew指数刚刚创下历史新高——这意味着看跌期权已经异常昂贵相对于平值期权，有助于支撑以看跌期权为主的VIX指数。正如我们进一步补充的那样，将看跌期权价格与平值期权价格进行比较的high skew已达到历史新高，<b>并反映了投资者的看法，即如果市场抛售，高波动性将会回归。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30d4664cf3c973cc1a86d743bcae379\" tg-width=\"746\" tg-height=\"464\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Commenting on this unusual move, we said that it shows that while on one hand traders seem complacent, they have never been more nervous that even a modest wobble in the market could start a crash. By extension,<b>\"</b><b><u>they have also never been more protected against a full-blown market crash</u></b><b>.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>在评论这一不寻常的举动时，我们说，这表明，虽然一方面交易者似乎自满，但他们从未如此紧张，即使市场的适度波动也可能引发崩盘。推而广之，<b>\"</b><b><u>他们也从未像现在这样免受全面市场崩盘的影响</u></b><b>.\"</b></blockquote></p><p> So fast forward to the violent, if brief, air pocket (and hardly a full-blown crash) the market experienced late last week and on Monday, which saw stocks tumble the most in months... only to soar right after. In retrospect, traders have the record high skew to thank for that because while risk reversed sharply on Tuesday and continuing today, traders were fully hedged and ready to pounce.</p><p><blockquote>快进到上周晚些时候和周一市场经历的剧烈（尽管短暂）的气穴（而不是全面崩盘），股市出现了几个月来的最大跌幅...只是在那之后飞翔。回想起来，交易者对此要感谢创纪录的高偏差，因为尽管风险在周二急剧逆转并持续到今天，但交易者已经完全对冲并准备好突袭。</blockquote></p><p> So following up on his observations from a month ago, when he first noted the record high skew, Goldman's derivatives strategist Rocky Fishman wrote that this week’s volatility pushed equity implied and realized volatility higher, with the VIX briefly hitting 25 during the day on Monday (19-Jul)...</p><p><blockquote>因此，继一个月前他首次注意到创纪录的高位偏差时的观察之后，高盛的衍生品策略师洛奇·菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）写道，本周的波动性推高了股票隐含波动性和已实现波动性，VIX在周一（7月19日）白天短暂触及25...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44c28ca21fe15a17f5b7fa1e3236e5ad\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">... even if in absolute terms vol is not high: three-week SPX realized vol (12.1%) is still below year-to-date realized vol (13.4%),and Tuesday’s rally brought the VIX back under 20. More importantly,<b>in response to record downside skew correctly implying that a sell-off would bring much higher volatility, skew has now moved even higher - at least for the S&amp;P 500.</b></p><p><blockquote>...即使从绝对值来看，成交量并不高：三周SPX实现成交量（12.1%）仍低于年初至今实现成交量（13.4%），周二的反弹使VIX回到20以下。更重要的是，<b>为了应对创纪录的下行偏斜，正确地暗示抛售将带来更高的波动性，偏斜现在已经走得更高——至少对标普500来说是这样。</b></blockquote></p><p> Some more observations from Fishman: \"although Tuesday’s large SPX move and drop in implied vol has reduced vol risk premium, the VIX remains high relative to recent realized vol.\"</p><p><blockquote>Fishman的更多观察：“尽管周二SPX的大幅波动和隐含波动率的下降降低了波动率风险溢价，但VIX相对于最近实现的波动率仍然很高。”</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the SPX has not had one-month realized vol as high as the current VIX level (19.7) since November - indicating that options continue to be persistently expensive,<b>which also means that traders are hedging to outsized moves both higher and lower and any selloffs are likely to be fleeting as hedges are cashed in</b>.</p><p><blockquote>此外，自11月以来，SPX的一个月实现波动率从未达到当前VIX水平（19.7）的水平，这表明期权仍然持续昂贵，<b>这也意味着交易者正在对冲大幅上涨和下跌，随着对冲兑现，任何抛售都可能转瞬即逝</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002e0c79da541efcfb85fe1e04e29088\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That said, given the recent precedent for quick sell-offs to be followed quickly by low volatility, Goldman expects volatility to subside in the near term with more likelihood of a sustained increase in Q4, and a big reason for this is the persistently high index skew.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，考虑到最近快速抛售之后迅速出现低波动性的先例，高盛预计波动性将在短期内消退，第四季度持续上升的可能性更大，而造成这种情况的一个重要原因是指数持续高位倾斜。</blockquote></p><p>   SPX index skew continues to be at near-record levels, which we see as driven by a lack of downside sellers  <b>as much as demand for hedging.</b>The strong reaction of the VIX to Monday’s sell-off, with the VIX up over six points at one point intraday,  <b>proved that high skew was justified - at least on a very local level....</b>on a more persistent sell-off, it would be difficult to sustain the level of implied volatility that skew would indicate.  Meanwhile, from a cross-asset standpoint, Fishman adds that if interest rates staying this low has the potential to be a catalyst for further equity upside (unless they plunge<i><b>too</b></i>fast), leaving the potential for near-term asymmetry in SPX potential returns that is the opposite of what option markets are implying.</p><p><blockquote>SPX指数偏差继续处于接近创纪录水平，我们认为这是由缺乏下行卖家推动的<b>以及对冲的需求。</b>VIX对周一抛售的强烈反应，VIX盘中一度上涨超过6点，<b>证明了高偏差是合理的——至少在非常局部的层面上....</b>如果出现更持续的抛售，则很难维持skew所指示的隐含波动率水平。与此同时，从跨资产的角度来看，菲什曼补充说，如果利率保持在如此低的水平，有可能成为股市进一步上涨的催化剂（除非利率暴跌<i><b>也</b></i>快速），使得SPX潜在回报存在近期不对称的可能性，这与期权市场的含义相反。</blockquote></p><p> So how does one trade the persistently sticky record high skew? Goldman continues to like levered risk reversals as a way to take advantage of this dynamic: Sell a 17-Sep 3800-strike put (12.1% OTM) to fund 2x 4550-strike (5.2% OTM) calls for zero net premium. The trade would be subject to dollar-for-dollar losses shouldthe SPX close below the downside strike at expiration.</p><p><blockquote>那么，如何交易持续粘性的创纪录高位偏差呢？高盛仍然喜欢杠杆风险逆转，以此作为利用这种动态的一种方式：出售9月17日3800执行权（12.1%OTM）的看跌期权，以零净溢价为2倍4550执行权（5.2%OTM）的评级提供资金。如果SPX指数在到期时收盘价低于下行价格，该交易将遭受美元对美元的损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind The Market's Furious Reversal: Record High Skew<blockquote>市场疯狂逆转的背后：创纪录的高位偏差</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind The Market's Furious Reversal: Record High Skew<blockquote>市场疯狂逆转的背后：创纪录的高位偏差</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-21 22:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At the end of June, when the S&amp;P was making new all time highs day after day, and when the VIX was touching fresh 2021 lows, we cautioned that the skew index just hit a new all time high - meaning that put options have been unusually expensive relative to at-the-money options, helping support the put-heavy VIX index. As we further added, high skew, which compares put option prices with at-the-money option prices, has reached new all-time high,&nbsp;<b>and reflected investor perception that high volatility would return should markets sell off.</b></p><p><blockquote>6月底，当标准普尔指数日复一日地创下历史新高，当VIX触及2021年新低时，我们警告称，skew指数刚刚创下历史新高——这意味着看跌期权已经异常昂贵相对于平值期权，有助于支撑以看跌期权为主的VIX指数。正如我们进一步补充的那样，将看跌期权价格与平值期权价格进行比较的high skew已达到历史新高，<b>并反映了投资者的看法，即如果市场抛售，高波动性将会回归。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30d4664cf3c973cc1a86d743bcae379\" tg-width=\"746\" tg-height=\"464\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Commenting on this unusual move, we said that it shows that while on one hand traders seem complacent, they have never been more nervous that even a modest wobble in the market could start a crash. By extension,<b>\"</b><b><u>they have also never been more protected against a full-blown market crash</u></b><b>.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>在评论这一不寻常的举动时，我们说，这表明，虽然一方面交易者似乎自满，但他们从未如此紧张，即使市场的适度波动也可能引发崩盘。推而广之，<b>\"</b><b><u>他们也从未像现在这样免受全面市场崩盘的影响</u></b><b>.\"</b></blockquote></p><p> So fast forward to the violent, if brief, air pocket (and hardly a full-blown crash) the market experienced late last week and on Monday, which saw stocks tumble the most in months... only to soar right after. In retrospect, traders have the record high skew to thank for that because while risk reversed sharply on Tuesday and continuing today, traders were fully hedged and ready to pounce.</p><p><blockquote>快进到上周晚些时候和周一市场经历的剧烈（尽管短暂）的气穴（而不是全面崩盘），股市出现了几个月来的最大跌幅...只是在那之后飞翔。回想起来，交易者对此要感谢创纪录的高偏差，因为尽管风险在周二急剧逆转并持续到今天，但交易者已经完全对冲并准备好突袭。</blockquote></p><p> So following up on his observations from a month ago, when he first noted the record high skew, Goldman's derivatives strategist Rocky Fishman wrote that this week’s volatility pushed equity implied and realized volatility higher, with the VIX briefly hitting 25 during the day on Monday (19-Jul)...</p><p><blockquote>因此，继一个月前他首次注意到创纪录的高位偏差时的观察之后，高盛的衍生品策略师洛奇·菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）写道，本周的波动性推高了股票隐含波动性和已实现波动性，VIX在周一（7月19日）白天短暂触及25...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44c28ca21fe15a17f5b7fa1e3236e5ad\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">... even if in absolute terms vol is not high: three-week SPX realized vol (12.1%) is still below year-to-date realized vol (13.4%),and Tuesday’s rally brought the VIX back under 20. More importantly,<b>in response to record downside skew correctly implying that a sell-off would bring much higher volatility, skew has now moved even higher - at least for the S&amp;P 500.</b></p><p><blockquote>...即使从绝对值来看，成交量并不高：三周SPX实现成交量（12.1%）仍低于年初至今实现成交量（13.4%），周二的反弹使VIX回到20以下。更重要的是，<b>为了应对创纪录的下行偏斜，正确地暗示抛售将带来更高的波动性，偏斜现在已经走得更高——至少对标普500来说是这样。</b></blockquote></p><p> Some more observations from Fishman: \"although Tuesday’s large SPX move and drop in implied vol has reduced vol risk premium, the VIX remains high relative to recent realized vol.\"</p><p><blockquote>Fishman的更多观察：“尽管周二SPX的大幅波动和隐含波动率的下降降低了波动率风险溢价，但VIX相对于最近实现的波动率仍然很高。”</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, the SPX has not had one-month realized vol as high as the current VIX level (19.7) since November - indicating that options continue to be persistently expensive,<b>which also means that traders are hedging to outsized moves both higher and lower and any selloffs are likely to be fleeting as hedges are cashed in</b>.</p><p><blockquote>此外，自11月以来，SPX的一个月实现波动率从未达到当前VIX水平（19.7）的水平，这表明期权仍然持续昂贵，<b>这也意味着交易者正在对冲大幅上涨和下跌，随着对冲兑现，任何抛售都可能转瞬即逝</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002e0c79da541efcfb85fe1e04e29088\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That said, given the recent precedent for quick sell-offs to be followed quickly by low volatility, Goldman expects volatility to subside in the near term with more likelihood of a sustained increase in Q4, and a big reason for this is the persistently high index skew.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，考虑到最近快速抛售之后迅速出现低波动性的先例，高盛预计波动性将在短期内消退，第四季度持续上升的可能性更大，而造成这种情况的一个重要原因是指数持续高位倾斜。</blockquote></p><p>   SPX index skew continues to be at near-record levels, which we see as driven by a lack of downside sellers  <b>as much as demand for hedging.</b>The strong reaction of the VIX to Monday’s sell-off, with the VIX up over six points at one point intraday,  <b>proved that high skew was justified - at least on a very local level....</b>on a more persistent sell-off, it would be difficult to sustain the level of implied volatility that skew would indicate.  Meanwhile, from a cross-asset standpoint, Fishman adds that if interest rates staying this low has the potential to be a catalyst for further equity upside (unless they plunge<i><b>too</b></i>fast), leaving the potential for near-term asymmetry in SPX potential returns that is the opposite of what option markets are implying.</p><p><blockquote>SPX指数偏差继续处于接近创纪录水平，我们认为这是由缺乏下行卖家推动的<b>以及对冲的需求。</b>VIX对周一抛售的强烈反应，VIX盘中一度上涨超过6点，<b>证明了高偏差是合理的——至少在非常局部的层面上....</b>如果出现更持续的抛售，则很难维持skew所指示的隐含波动率水平。与此同时，从跨资产的角度来看，菲什曼补充说，如果利率保持在如此低的水平，有可能成为股市进一步上涨的催化剂（除非利率暴跌<i><b>也</b></i>快速），使得SPX潜在回报存在近期不对称的可能性，这与期权市场的含义相反。</blockquote></p><p> So how does one trade the persistently sticky record high skew? Goldman continues to like levered risk reversals as a way to take advantage of this dynamic: Sell a 17-Sep 3800-strike put (12.1% OTM) to fund 2x 4550-strike (5.2% OTM) calls for zero net premium. The trade would be subject to dollar-for-dollar losses shouldthe SPX close below the downside strike at expiration.</p><p><blockquote>那么，如何交易持续粘性的创纪录高位偏差呢？高盛仍然喜欢杠杆风险逆转，以此作为利用这种动态的一种方式：出售9月17日3800执行权（12.1%OTM）的看跌期权，以零净溢价为2倍4550执行权（5.2%OTM）的评级提供资金。如果SPX指数在到期时收盘价低于下行价格，该交易将遭受美元对美元的损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-markets-furious-reversal-record-high-skew?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/behind-markets-furious-reversal-record-high-skew?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144363960","content_text":"At the end of June, when the S&P was making new all time highs day after day, and when the VIX was touching fresh 2021 lows, we cautioned that the skew index just hit a new all time high - meaning that put options have been unusually expensive relative to at-the-money options, helping support the put-heavy VIX index. As we further added, high skew, which compares put option prices with at-the-money option prices, has reached new all-time high, and reflected investor perception that high volatility would return should markets sell off.\nCommenting on this unusual move, we said that it shows that while on one hand traders seem complacent, they have never been more nervous that even a modest wobble in the market could start a crash. By extension,\"they have also never been more protected against a full-blown market crash.\"\nSo fast forward to the violent, if brief, air pocket (and hardly a full-blown crash) the market experienced late last week and on Monday, which saw stocks tumble the most in months... only to soar right after. In retrospect, traders have the record high skew to thank for that because while risk reversed sharply on Tuesday and continuing today, traders were fully hedged and ready to pounce.\nSo following up on his observations from a month ago, when he first noted the record high skew, Goldman's derivatives strategist Rocky Fishman wrote that this week’s volatility pushed equity implied and realized volatility higher, with the VIX briefly hitting 25 during the day on Monday (19-Jul)...\n... even if in absolute terms vol is not high: three-week SPX realized vol (12.1%) is still below year-to-date realized vol (13.4%),and Tuesday’s rally brought the VIX back under 20. More importantly,in response to record downside skew correctly implying that a sell-off would bring much higher volatility, skew has now moved even higher - at least for the S&P 500.\nSome more observations from Fishman: \"although Tuesday’s large SPX move and drop in implied vol has reduced vol risk premium, the VIX remains high relative to recent realized vol.\"\nFurthermore, the SPX has not had one-month realized vol as high as the current VIX level (19.7) since November - indicating that options continue to be persistently expensive,which also means that traders are hedging to outsized moves both higher and lower and any selloffs are likely to be fleeting as hedges are cashed in.\n\nThat said, given the recent precedent for quick sell-offs to be followed quickly by low volatility, Goldman expects volatility to subside in the near term with more likelihood of a sustained increase in Q4, and a big reason for this is the persistently high index skew.\n\n SPX index skew continues to be at near-record levels, which we see as driven by a lack of downside sellers\n as much as demand for hedging.The strong reaction of the VIX to Monday’s sell-off, with the VIX up over six points at one point intraday,\n proved that high skew was justified - at least on a very local level....on a more persistent sell-off, it would be difficult to sustain the level of implied volatility that skew would indicate.\n\nMeanwhile, from a cross-asset standpoint, Fishman adds that if interest rates staying this low has the potential to be a catalyst for further equity upside (unless they plungetoofast), leaving the potential for near-term asymmetry in SPX potential returns that is the opposite of what option markets are implying.\nSo how does one trade the persistently sticky record high skew? Goldman continues to like levered risk reversals as a way to take advantage of this dynamic: Sell a 17-Sep 3800-strike put (12.1% OTM) to fund 2x 4550-strike (5.2% OTM) calls for zero net premium. The trade would be subject to dollar-for-dollar losses shouldthe SPX close below the downside strike at expiration.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148185722,"gmtCreate":1625960660566,"gmtModify":1633931419832,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148185722","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就必须用东西填满它。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可以限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA(+1.30%)和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就必须用东西填满它。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可以限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA(+1.30%)和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153740346,"gmtCreate":1625053608185,"gmtModify":1633945429582,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153740346","repostId":"1192804598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192804598","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625051958,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192804598?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 19:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Didi Prices Its IPO at $14. Shares of the Chinese Ride-Hailing Giant Start Trading on Wednesday.<blockquote>滴滴将其IPO定价为14美元。这家中国网约车巨头的股票将于周三开始交易。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192804598","media":"Barrons","summary":"Didi Global, the Uber of China, has set the stage for one of the year’s biggest IPOs.\nThe Chinese ri","content":"<p>Didi Global, the Uber of China, has set the stage for one of the year’s biggest IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>中国的优步滴滴出行为今年最大的IPO之一奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> The Chinese ride-hailing behemoth on Tuesday sold 288 million American depositary shares at $14 each, the top of its $13 to $14 price range, a person briefed on the matter said. Four such shares represent one class A ordinary share.</p><p><blockquote>一位知情人士表示，这家中国网约车巨头周二以每股14美元的价格出售了2.88亿股美国存托股票，这是其13至14美元价格区间的上限。四股此类股份代表一股A类普通股。</blockquote></p><p> At $14 a share, Didi would have a $67 billion market capitalization. On a fully diluted basis, Didi’s valuation rises to about $73 billion</p><p><blockquote>按每股14美元计算，滴滴的市值将达到670亿美元。在完全摊薄的基础上，滴滴估值升至约730亿美元</blockquote></p><p> The Beijing company has raised $4 billion in the offering. The shares will start trading on Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker DIDI.</p><p><blockquote>这家北京公司在此次发行中筹集了40亿美元。该股将于周三在纽约证券交易所开始交易，股票代码为DIDI。</blockquote></p><p> Didi was one of nine companies expected to price their IPOs on Tuesday and trade Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴是预计将于周二为IPO定价并于周三交易的九家公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> entinelOne, the AI-powered cybersecurity platform, collected $1.12 billion after selling 32 million shares at $35 each, above its expected price range. The company had filed to offer 32 million shares at $26 to $29 each, which it boosted to $31 to $32 a share on Monday. It will trade Wednesday under the ticker S on the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能网络安全平台entinelOne在以每股35美元的价格出售3200万股后筹集了11.2亿美元，高于其预期价格范围。该公司已申请以每股26至29美元的价格发行3200万股股票，周一将价格提高至每股31至32美元。该公司将于周三在纽约证券交易所交易，股票代码为S。</blockquote></p><p> Others&nbsp;scheduled to priceTuesday and trade Wednesday include Legal&nbsp;Zoom,the online legal services company.</p><p><blockquote>其他计划于周二定价和周三交易的公司包括在线法律服务公司Legal Zoom。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan are the underwriters on the Didi offering.</p><p><blockquote>高盛、摩根士丹利和摩根大通是滴滴发行的承销商。</blockquote></p><p> Didi provides a smartphone app that lets users connect with vehicles and taxis for hire. Founded in 2012, it operates in nearly 4,000 cities, counties, and towns across 16 countries,its prospectus said. It had more than 493 million annual active users as of March 31.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴提供了一款智能手机应用程序，让用户可以连接车辆和出租车进行出租。招股说明书称，该公司成立于2012年，在16个国家的近4,000个城市、县和城镇开展业务。截至3月31日，它的年度活跃用户超过4.93亿。</blockquote></p><p> At $4 billion, Didi would deliver the second biggest IPO of the year.Coupang(ticker: CPNG),which collected about $4.6 billion in March, remains the year’s biggest IPO, Dealogic said.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴将以40亿美元的价格实现今年第二大IPO.Dealogic表示，Coupang（股票代码：CPNG）在3月份筹集了约46亿美元，仍然是今年最大的IPO。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Didi Prices Its IPO at $14. Shares of the Chinese Ride-Hailing Giant Start Trading on Wednesday.<blockquote>滴滴将其IPO定价为14美元。这家中国网约车巨头的股票将于周三开始交易。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDidi Prices Its IPO at $14. Shares of the Chinese Ride-Hailing Giant Start Trading on Wednesday.<blockquote>滴滴将其IPO定价为14美元。这家中国网约车巨头的股票将于周三开始交易。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 19:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Didi Global, the Uber of China, has set the stage for one of the year’s biggest IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>中国的优步滴滴出行为今年最大的IPO之一奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> The Chinese ride-hailing behemoth on Tuesday sold 288 million American depositary shares at $14 each, the top of its $13 to $14 price range, a person briefed on the matter said. Four such shares represent one class A ordinary share.</p><p><blockquote>一位知情人士表示，这家中国网约车巨头周二以每股14美元的价格出售了2.88亿股美国存托股票，这是其13至14美元价格区间的上限。四股此类股份代表一股A类普通股。</blockquote></p><p> At $14 a share, Didi would have a $67 billion market capitalization. On a fully diluted basis, Didi’s valuation rises to about $73 billion</p><p><blockquote>按每股14美元计算，滴滴的市值将达到670亿美元。在完全摊薄的基础上，滴滴估值升至约730亿美元</blockquote></p><p> The Beijing company has raised $4 billion in the offering. The shares will start trading on Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker DIDI.</p><p><blockquote>这家北京公司在此次发行中筹集了40亿美元。该股将于周三在纽约证券交易所开始交易，股票代码为DIDI。</blockquote></p><p> Didi was one of nine companies expected to price their IPOs on Tuesday and trade Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴是预计将于周二为IPO定价并于周三交易的九家公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> entinelOne, the AI-powered cybersecurity platform, collected $1.12 billion after selling 32 million shares at $35 each, above its expected price range. The company had filed to offer 32 million shares at $26 to $29 each, which it boosted to $31 to $32 a share on Monday. It will trade Wednesday under the ticker S on the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能网络安全平台entinelOne在以每股35美元的价格出售3200万股后筹集了11.2亿美元，高于其预期价格范围。该公司已申请以每股26至29美元的价格发行3200万股股票，周一将价格提高至每股31至32美元。该公司将于周三在纽约证券交易所交易，股票代码为S。</blockquote></p><p> Others&nbsp;scheduled to priceTuesday and trade Wednesday include Legal&nbsp;Zoom,the online legal services company.</p><p><blockquote>其他计划于周二定价和周三交易的公司包括在线法律服务公司Legal Zoom。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan are the underwriters on the Didi offering.</p><p><blockquote>高盛、摩根士丹利和摩根大通是滴滴发行的承销商。</blockquote></p><p> Didi provides a smartphone app that lets users connect with vehicles and taxis for hire. Founded in 2012, it operates in nearly 4,000 cities, counties, and towns across 16 countries,its prospectus said. It had more than 493 million annual active users as of March 31.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴提供了一款智能手机应用程序，让用户可以连接车辆和出租车进行出租。招股说明书称，该公司成立于2012年，在16个国家的近4,000个城市、县和城镇开展业务。截至3月31日，它的年度活跃用户超过4.93亿。</blockquote></p><p> At $4 billion, Didi would deliver the second biggest IPO of the year.Coupang(ticker: CPNG),which collected about $4.6 billion in March, remains the year’s biggest IPO, Dealogic said.</p><p><blockquote>滴滴将以40亿美元的价格实现今年第二大IPO.Dealogic表示，Coupang（股票代码：CPNG）在3月份筹集了约46亿美元，仍然是今年最大的IPO。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/didi-ipo-51625006792?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/didi-ipo-51625006792?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192804598","content_text":"Didi Global, the Uber of China, has set the stage for one of the year’s biggest IPOs.\nThe Chinese ride-hailing behemoth on Tuesday sold 288 million American depositary shares at $14 each, the top of its $13 to $14 price range, a person briefed on the matter said. Four such shares represent one class A ordinary share.\nAt $14 a share, Didi would have a $67 billion market capitalization. On a fully diluted basis, Didi’s valuation rises to about $73 billion\nThe Beijing company has raised $4 billion in the offering. The shares will start trading on Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker DIDI.\nDidi was one of nine companies expected to price their IPOs on Tuesday and trade Wednesday.\nentinelOne, the AI-powered cybersecurity platform, collected $1.12 billion after selling 32 million shares at $35 each, above its expected price range. The company had filed to offer 32 million shares at $26 to $29 each, which it boosted to $31 to $32 a share on Monday. It will trade Wednesday under the ticker S on the New York Stock Exchange.\nOthers scheduled to priceTuesday and trade Wednesday include Legal Zoom,the online legal services company.\nGoldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan are the underwriters on the Didi offering.\nDidi provides a smartphone app that lets users connect with vehicles and taxis for hire. Founded in 2012, it operates in nearly 4,000 cities, counties, and towns across 16 countries,its prospectus said. It had more than 493 million annual active users as of March 31.\nAt $4 billion, Didi would deliver the second biggest IPO of the year.Coupang(ticker: CPNG),which collected about $4.6 billion in March, remains the year’s biggest IPO, Dealogic said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125234152,"gmtCreate":1624674470376,"gmtModify":1633949747197,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125234152","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121816734,"gmtCreate":1624458476428,"gmtModify":1634005821774,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"N","listText":"N","text":"N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121816734","repostId":"1170395888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170395888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624457324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170395888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170395888","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Thin","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育(TAL)子公司学而思(Xueersi.com)近几个月与联想(OTCPK：LNVGY)合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导参与者将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的成绩为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 22:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育(TAL)子公司学而思(Xueersi.com)近几个月与联想(OTCPK：LNVGY)合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导参与者将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的成绩为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOTU":"高途","TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170395888","content_text":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nAt first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).\nThe largest stake in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.\nAs industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.\nLet's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.\nAs you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.\nTAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry\nSummary\n\nFY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.\nIn 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.\nUnlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.\nWith COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.\nWe do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.\n\nTAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education & parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.\nIn China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.\nAs parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.\nDecent financial results\nTAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.\nNew market opportunities\nIn the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.\nIn 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.\n\nThe fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.\nTAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.\nThe re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.\nTAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.\nResults from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.\nLess venture investment presence\nSince 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.\n\nThe entrance of tech giants\nSales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.\nWith upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.\nThe education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.\nAllegation probe\nIn April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.\nTwo years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"\nBottom line\nThis might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.\nGaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced\nSummary\n\nThe longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).\nAdverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.\nGrowth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.\nDespite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.\n\nNewly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.\nGrowing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels\nWorryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).\n\nSource:GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nHowever, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.\nAdult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver\nWithin the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.\n\nSource:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing\nNotably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.\nOnline Regulations Remain the Key Concern\nLooking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.\nAny restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.\n\nSource: GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nFinal Take\nOverall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.\nData by 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me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623335677,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109265126?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 22:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109265126","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 10) Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.\nGameStop fell about 10%, Baird says GameSt","content":"<p>(June&nbsp;10)&nbsp;Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月10日）大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f035fcec2fe0d5b172ba455b6163d8c\" tg-width=\"305\" tg-height=\"404\">GameStop&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;10%,&nbsp;Baird says GameStop's turnaround plan remains a mystery, predicts 90% stock decline.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站跌约10%，Baird称游戏驿站扭亏为盈计划仍成谜，预计股价下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Corp&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;9%,&nbsp;Investors should back away fromClover Healthafter Reddit traders helped to cause a shortage in the heavily shorted insurance stock, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，在Reddit交易员帮助导致严重做空的保险股短缺后，Clover Health Corp下跌近9%，投资者应该远离Clover Health。</blockquote></p><p> The stock closed at $16.92 per share on Wednesday, up more than 120% in June, and briefly traded above $28. The company, which went public through a special purpose acquisition company deal aided by billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya, has become favorite of social media traders in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>该股周三收于每股16.92美元，6月份涨幅超过120%，并一度突破28美元。该公司在亿万富翁Chamath Palihapitiya的帮助下通过特殊目的收购公司交易上市，在过去一周成为社交媒体交易员的最爱。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America analyst Kevin Fischbeck downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, saying in a note to clients on Thursday that the fundamentals couldn’t support the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师Kevin Fischbeck将该股评级从中性下调至表现不佳，他在周四给客户的一份报告中表示，基本面无法支撑股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMost of meme stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-10 22:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June&nbsp;10)&nbsp;Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月10日）大多数模因股票在早盘交易中下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f035fcec2fe0d5b172ba455b6163d8c\" tg-width=\"305\" tg-height=\"404\">GameStop&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;10%,&nbsp;Baird says GameStop's turnaround plan remains a mystery, predicts 90% stock decline.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站跌约10%，Baird称游戏驿站扭亏为盈计划仍成谜，预计股价下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Corp&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;9%,&nbsp;Investors should back away fromClover Healthafter Reddit traders helped to cause a shortage in the heavily shorted insurance stock, according to Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，在Reddit交易员帮助导致严重做空的保险股短缺后，Clover Health Corp下跌近9%，投资者应该远离Clover Health。</blockquote></p><p> The stock closed at $16.92 per share on Wednesday, up more than 120% in June, and briefly traded above $28. The company, which went public through a special purpose acquisition company deal aided by billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya, has become favorite of social media traders in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>该股周三收于每股16.92美元，6月份涨幅超过120%，并一度突破28美元。该公司在亿万富翁Chamath Palihapitiya的帮助下通过特殊目的收购公司交易上市，在过去一周成为社交媒体交易员的最爱。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America analyst Kevin Fischbeck downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, saying in a note to clients on Thursday that the fundamentals couldn’t support the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师Kevin Fischbeck将该股评级从中性下调至表现不佳，他在周四给客户的一份报告中表示，基本面无法支撑股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109265126","content_text":"(June 10) Most of meme stocks dropped in morning trading.\nGameStop fell about 10%, Baird says GameStop's turnaround plan remains a mystery, predicts 90% stock decline.\nClover Health Corp fell nearly 9%, Investors should back away fromClover Healthafter Reddit traders helped to cause a shortage in the heavily shorted insurance stock, according to Bank of America.\nThe stock closed at $16.92 per share on Wednesday, up more than 120% in June, and briefly traded above $28. The company, which went public through a special purpose acquisition company deal aided by billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya, has become favorite of social media traders in the past week.\nBank of America analyst Kevin Fischbeck downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, saying in a note to clients on Thursday that the fundamentals couldn’t support the stock price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,"WISH":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111887696,"gmtCreate":1622675563115,"gmtModify":1634099382362,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111887696","repostId":"2140448417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139216268,"gmtCreate":1621637030654,"gmtModify":1634187570449,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139216268","repostId":"2137001229","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107228978,"gmtCreate":1620515441394,"gmtModify":1634198381371,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107228978","repostId":"1179368127","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179368127","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620451362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179368127?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 13:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Weekly Recap: Sacramento bank Five Star Bancorp finishes on top in an 8 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO每周回顾：萨克拉门托银行五星银行(Five Star Bancorp)在8周IPO中名列前茅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179368127","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"Eight IPOs and four SPACs went public this past week. One IPO postponed, UK-based biotechGyroscope T","content":"<p>Eight IPOs and four SPACs went public this past week. One IPO postponed, UK-based biotech<b>Gyroscope Therapeutics</b>(VISN), citing market conditions. Filing activity maintained a comfortable pace/remained moderate, with seven IPOs and 10 SPACs submitting initial filings.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周有八家IPO和四家SPAC上市。英国生物技术公司一项IPO被推迟<b>陀螺仪疗法</b>(VISN)，援引市场状况。申报活动保持平稳/温和，有7家IPO和10家SPAC提交了初始申报。</blockquote></p><p> The week’s best performer, Sacramento bank<b>Five Star Bancorp</b>(FSBC) priced at the high end to raise $105 million at a $325 million market cap. The bank serves the greater Sacramento MSA through its seven branches and&nbsp;two loan offices, focusing on commercial real estate lending. While large money center banks control the majority of deposits in the area, the bank has more than doubled its share since 2016. Five Star finished up 25%.</p><p><blockquote>本周表现最佳的萨克拉门托银行<b>五星银行</b>（FSBC）定价高端，以3.25亿美元的市值筹集1.05亿美元。该银行通过其七个分行和两个贷款办事处为大萨克拉门托MSA提供服务，专注于商业房地产贷款。虽然大型货币中心银行控制着该地区的大部分存款，但自2016年以来，该银行的份额增加了一倍多。五星集团收盘上涨25%。</blockquote></p><p> Non-toxic lifestyle brand<b>The Honest Company</b>(HNST) priced slightly above the midpoint to raise $413 million at a $1.6 billion market cap. Co-founded by actress Jessica Alba, the company offers baby care, skin and personal care, and household and wellness products. The company saw solid growth in 2020, though it has a history of losses and negative free cash flow, and insiders sold a majority of the IPO. Honest finished up 19%.</p><p><blockquote>无毒生活品牌<b>诚实的公司</b>(HNST)的定价略高于中点，以16亿美元的市值筹集了4.13亿美元。该公司由女演员杰西卡·阿尔芭共同创立，提供婴儿护理、皮肤和个人护理以及家居和健康产品。该公司在2020年实现了稳健增长，尽管它有亏损和负自由现金流的历史，而且内部人士出售了大部分IPO股票。Honest收盘上涨19%。</blockquote></p><p> French-listed biotech<b>Valneva</b>(VALN) priced within the range to raise $94 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. Valneva has successfully commercialized vaccines for Japanese Encephalitis and Cholera. Its clinical portfolio contains lead program VLA15, a vaccine targeting Borrelia (Lyme disease) under development in collaboration with Pfizer, which is currently in Phase 2 trials. Valneva finished up 12%.</p><p><blockquote>法国上市生物技术公司<b>瓦尔涅娃</b>(VALN)的定价在筹集9400万美元的范围内，市值为14亿美元。Valneva已成功将日本脑炎和霍乱疫苗商业化。其临床产品组合包括牵头项目VLA15，这是一种与辉瑞合作开发的针对疏螺旋体（莱姆病）的疫苗，目前正处于2期试验。Valneva收盘上涨12%。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabinoid overdose biotech<b>Anebulo Pharmaceuticals</b>(ANEB) priced at the midpoint to raise $21 million at a $163 million market cap. The company’s lead candidate is intended to reverse the negative effect of cannabinoid overdose within 1 hour of administration. The company expects to begin a Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial for cannabinoid overdose in the Netherlands in the 4Q21. Anebulo finished up 1%.</p><p><blockquote>大麻素过量生物技术<b>Anebulo制药公司</b>(ANEB)定价为中点，以1.63亿美元的市值筹集2100万美元。该公司的主要候选药物旨在在给药1小时内逆转大麻素过量的负面影响。该公司预计将在2021年第四季度开始针对大麻素过量的第二阶段概念验证试验。Anebulo收盘上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> After delaying pricing by a day, professional services firm<b>Bowman Consulting Group</b>(BWMN) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $52 million at a $153 million market cap. The company offers planning, engineering, construction management, commissioning, environmental consulting, land procurement, and other services to over 2,200 clients in diverse end markets. Bowman finished flat.</p><p><blockquote>在推迟一天定价后，专业服务公司<b>鲍曼咨询集团</b>(BWMN)扩大规模并定价高端，以1.53亿美元的市值筹集了5200万美元。该公司为不同终端市场的2,200多家客户提供规划、工程、施工管理、调试、环境咨询、土地采购和其他服务。鲍曼以平局告终。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese e-commerce platform<b>Onion Global</b>(OG) downsized and priced at the low end to raise $68 million at a $728 million market cap. Onion Global’s platform offers more than 4,000 beauty, maternal and baby, fashion, and food and beverage brands to buyers across Asia. The company is profitable with strong growth, though it faces significant competition from larger players. Onion Global finished down 3%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电子商务平台<b>洋葱全球</b>(OG)缩小规模并定价较低，以7.28亿美元的市值筹集6800万美元。Onion Global的平台为亚洲买家提供4000多个美容、母婴、时尚和食品饮料品牌。尽管面临来自大型企业的激烈竞争，但该公司盈利且增长强劲。洋葱环球收盘下跌3%。</blockquote></p><p> Cell therapy biotech<b>Talaris Therapeutics</b>(TALS) priced at the midpoint to raise $150 million at a $736 million market cap. Its lead candidate is a novel allogeneic cell therapy comprised of stem and immune cells that are procured from a healthy donor. The company is currently enrolling patients for a Phase 3 registration trial in the US in adult living donor kidney transplant recipients. Talaris finished down 4%.</p><p><blockquote>细胞治疗生物技术<b>Talaris治疗公司</b>(TALS)的定价为中点，以7.36亿美元的市值筹集1.5亿美元。其主要候选药物是一种新型同种异体细胞疗法，由从健康供体获得的干细胞和免疫细胞组成。该公司目前正在美国招募患者参加成人活体肾移植受者的3期注册试验。Talaris收盘下跌4%。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese health insurance platform<b>Waterdrop</b>(WDH) priced at the high end to raise $360 million at a $5.1 billion market cap. Unprofitable with explosive growth, the company was China’s #2 third-party life and health insurance broker by first year premiums in 2020, and its #1 medical crowdfunding platform by funds raised. Waterdrop finished down 19%.</p><p><blockquote>华人健康保险平台<b>水滴</b>(WDH)定价高端，以51亿美元的市值筹集3.6亿美元。该公司在2020年首年保费排名中国第二的第三方人寿和健康保险经纪公司，以及筹集资金排名第一的医疗众筹平台。Waterdrop收盘下跌19%。</blockquote></p><p> Four SPACs raised $610 million led by<b>Valor Latitude Acquisition</b>(VLATU), which raised $200 million to acquire a tech-enabled Latin American business.</p><p><blockquote>四家SPAC融资6.1亿美元<b>Valor Latitude采集</b>（VLATU），该公司筹集了2亿美元收购了一家以技术为基础的拉丁美洲企业。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca210f93103a09312862e0e146295e9b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"711\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Weekly Recap: Sacramento bank Five Star Bancorp finishes on top in an 8 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO每周回顾：萨克拉门托银行五星银行(Five Star Bancorp)在8周IPO中名列前茅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Weekly Recap: Sacramento bank Five Star Bancorp finishes on top in an 8 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO每周回顾：萨克拉门托银行五星银行(Five Star Bancorp)在8周IPO中名列前茅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 13:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Eight IPOs and four SPACs went public this past week. One IPO postponed, UK-based biotech<b>Gyroscope Therapeutics</b>(VISN), citing market conditions. Filing activity maintained a comfortable pace/remained moderate, with seven IPOs and 10 SPACs submitting initial filings.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周有八家IPO和四家SPAC上市。英国生物技术公司一项IPO被推迟<b>陀螺仪疗法</b>(VISN)，援引市场状况。申报活动保持平稳/温和，有7家IPO和10家SPAC提交了初始申报。</blockquote></p><p> The week’s best performer, Sacramento bank<b>Five Star Bancorp</b>(FSBC) priced at the high end to raise $105 million at a $325 million market cap. The bank serves the greater Sacramento MSA through its seven branches and&nbsp;two loan offices, focusing on commercial real estate lending. While large money center banks control the majority of deposits in the area, the bank has more than doubled its share since 2016. Five Star finished up 25%.</p><p><blockquote>本周表现最佳的萨克拉门托银行<b>五星银行</b>（FSBC）定价高端，以3.25亿美元的市值筹集1.05亿美元。该银行通过其七个分行和两个贷款办事处为大萨克拉门托MSA提供服务，专注于商业房地产贷款。虽然大型货币中心银行控制着该地区的大部分存款，但自2016年以来，该银行的份额增加了一倍多。五星集团收盘上涨25%。</blockquote></p><p> Non-toxic lifestyle brand<b>The Honest Company</b>(HNST) priced slightly above the midpoint to raise $413 million at a $1.6 billion market cap. Co-founded by actress Jessica Alba, the company offers baby care, skin and personal care, and household and wellness products. The company saw solid growth in 2020, though it has a history of losses and negative free cash flow, and insiders sold a majority of the IPO. Honest finished up 19%.</p><p><blockquote>无毒生活品牌<b>诚实的公司</b>(HNST)的定价略高于中点，以16亿美元的市值筹集了4.13亿美元。该公司由女演员杰西卡·阿尔芭共同创立，提供婴儿护理、皮肤和个人护理以及家居和健康产品。该公司在2020年实现了稳健增长，尽管它有亏损和负自由现金流的历史，而且内部人士出售了大部分IPO股票。Honest收盘上涨19%。</blockquote></p><p> French-listed biotech<b>Valneva</b>(VALN) priced within the range to raise $94 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. Valneva has successfully commercialized vaccines for Japanese Encephalitis and Cholera. Its clinical portfolio contains lead program VLA15, a vaccine targeting Borrelia (Lyme disease) under development in collaboration with Pfizer, which is currently in Phase 2 trials. Valneva finished up 12%.</p><p><blockquote>法国上市生物技术公司<b>瓦尔涅娃</b>(VALN)的定价在筹集9400万美元的范围内，市值为14亿美元。Valneva已成功将日本脑炎和霍乱疫苗商业化。其临床产品组合包括牵头项目VLA15，这是一种与辉瑞合作开发的针对疏螺旋体（莱姆病）的疫苗，目前正处于2期试验。Valneva收盘上涨12%。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabinoid overdose biotech<b>Anebulo Pharmaceuticals</b>(ANEB) priced at the midpoint to raise $21 million at a $163 million market cap. The company’s lead candidate is intended to reverse the negative effect of cannabinoid overdose within 1 hour of administration. The company expects to begin a Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial for cannabinoid overdose in the Netherlands in the 4Q21. Anebulo finished up 1%.</p><p><blockquote>大麻素过量生物技术<b>Anebulo制药公司</b>(ANEB)定价为中点，以1.63亿美元的市值筹集2100万美元。该公司的主要候选药物旨在在给药1小时内逆转大麻素过量的负面影响。该公司预计将在2021年第四季度开始针对大麻素过量的第二阶段概念验证试验。Anebulo收盘上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> After delaying pricing by a day, professional services firm<b>Bowman Consulting Group</b>(BWMN) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $52 million at a $153 million market cap. The company offers planning, engineering, construction management, commissioning, environmental consulting, land procurement, and other services to over 2,200 clients in diverse end markets. Bowman finished flat.</p><p><blockquote>在推迟一天定价后，专业服务公司<b>鲍曼咨询集团</b>(BWMN)扩大规模并定价高端，以1.53亿美元的市值筹集了5200万美元。该公司为不同终端市场的2,200多家客户提供规划、工程、施工管理、调试、环境咨询、土地采购和其他服务。鲍曼以平局告终。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese e-commerce platform<b>Onion Global</b>(OG) downsized and priced at the low end to raise $68 million at a $728 million market cap. Onion Global’s platform offers more than 4,000 beauty, maternal and baby, fashion, and food and beverage brands to buyers across Asia. The company is profitable with strong growth, though it faces significant competition from larger players. Onion Global finished down 3%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电子商务平台<b>洋葱全球</b>(OG)缩小规模并定价较低，以7.28亿美元的市值筹集6800万美元。Onion Global的平台为亚洲买家提供4000多个美容、母婴、时尚和食品饮料品牌。尽管面临来自大型企业的激烈竞争，但该公司盈利且增长强劲。洋葱环球收盘下跌3%。</blockquote></p><p> Cell therapy biotech<b>Talaris Therapeutics</b>(TALS) priced at the midpoint to raise $150 million at a $736 million market cap. Its lead candidate is a novel allogeneic cell therapy comprised of stem and immune cells that are procured from a healthy donor. The company is currently enrolling patients for a Phase 3 registration trial in the US in adult living donor kidney transplant recipients. Talaris finished down 4%.</p><p><blockquote>细胞治疗生物技术<b>Talaris治疗公司</b>(TALS)的定价为中点，以7.36亿美元的市值筹集1.5亿美元。其主要候选药物是一种新型同种异体细胞疗法，由从健康供体获得的干细胞和免疫细胞组成。该公司目前正在美国招募患者参加成人活体肾移植受者的3期注册试验。Talaris收盘下跌4%。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese health insurance platform<b>Waterdrop</b>(WDH) priced at the high end to raise $360 million at a $5.1 billion market cap. Unprofitable with explosive growth, the company was China’s #2 third-party life and health insurance broker by first year premiums in 2020, and its #1 medical crowdfunding platform by funds raised. Waterdrop finished down 19%.</p><p><blockquote>华人健康保险平台<b>水滴</b>(WDH)定价高端，以51亿美元的市值筹集3.6亿美元。该公司在2020年首年保费排名中国第二的第三方人寿和健康保险经纪公司，以及筹集资金排名第一的医疗众筹平台。Waterdrop收盘下跌19%。</blockquote></p><p> Four SPACs raised $610 million led by<b>Valor Latitude Acquisition</b>(VLATU), which raised $200 million to acquire a tech-enabled Latin American business.</p><p><blockquote>四家SPAC融资6.1亿美元<b>Valor Latitude采集</b>（VLATU），该公司筹集了2亿美元收购了一家以技术为基础的拉丁美洲企业。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca210f93103a09312862e0e146295e9b\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"711\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/81608/US-IPO-Weekly-Recap-Sacramento-bank-Five-Star-Bancorp-finishes-on-top-in-an\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/81608/US-IPO-Weekly-Recap-Sacramento-bank-Five-Star-Bancorp-finishes-on-top-in-an","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179368127","content_text":"Eight IPOs and four SPACs went public this past week. One IPO postponed, UK-based biotechGyroscope Therapeutics(VISN), citing market conditions. Filing activity maintained a comfortable pace/remained moderate, with seven IPOs and 10 SPACs submitting initial filings.\nThe week’s best performer, Sacramento bankFive Star Bancorp(FSBC) priced at the high end to raise $105 million at a $325 million market cap. The bank serves the greater Sacramento MSA through its seven branches and two loan offices, focusing on commercial real estate lending. While large money center banks control the majority of deposits in the area, the bank has more than doubled its share since 2016. Five Star finished up 25%.\nNon-toxic lifestyle brandThe Honest Company(HNST) priced slightly above the midpoint to raise $413 million at a $1.6 billion market cap. Co-founded by actress Jessica Alba, the company offers baby care, skin and personal care, and household and wellness products. The company saw solid growth in 2020, though it has a history of losses and negative free cash flow, and insiders sold a majority of the IPO. Honest finished up 19%.\nFrench-listed biotechValneva(VALN) priced within the range to raise $94 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. Valneva has successfully commercialized vaccines for Japanese Encephalitis and Cholera. Its clinical portfolio contains lead program VLA15, a vaccine targeting Borrelia (Lyme disease) under development in collaboration with Pfizer, which is currently in Phase 2 trials. Valneva finished up 12%.\nCannabinoid overdose biotechAnebulo Pharmaceuticals(ANEB) priced at the midpoint to raise $21 million at a $163 million market cap. The company’s lead candidate is intended to reverse the negative effect of cannabinoid overdose within 1 hour of administration. The company expects to begin a Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial for cannabinoid overdose in the Netherlands in the 4Q21. Anebulo finished up 1%.\nAfter delaying pricing by a day, professional services firmBowman Consulting Group(BWMN) upsized and priced at the high end to raise $52 million at a $153 million market cap. The company offers planning, engineering, construction management, commissioning, environmental consulting, land procurement, and other services to over 2,200 clients in diverse end markets. Bowman finished flat.\nChinese e-commerce platformOnion Global(OG) downsized and priced at the low end to raise $68 million at a $728 million market cap. Onion Global’s platform offers more than 4,000 beauty, maternal and baby, fashion, and food and beverage brands to buyers across Asia. The company is profitable with strong growth, though it faces significant competition from larger players. Onion Global finished down 3%.\nCell therapy biotechTalaris Therapeutics(TALS) priced at the midpoint to raise $150 million at a $736 million market cap. Its lead candidate is a novel allogeneic cell therapy comprised of stem and immune cells that are procured from a healthy donor. The company is currently enrolling patients for a Phase 3 registration trial in the US in adult living donor kidney transplant recipients. Talaris finished down 4%.\nChinese health insurance platformWaterdrop(WDH) priced at the high end to raise $360 million at a $5.1 billion market cap. Unprofitable with explosive growth, the company was China’s #2 third-party life and health insurance broker by first year premiums in 2020, and its #1 medical crowdfunding platform by funds raised. Waterdrop finished down 19%.\nFour SPACs raised $610 million led byValor Latitude Acquisition(VLATU), which raised $200 million to acquire a tech-enabled Latin American business.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112738429,"gmtCreate":1622927702461,"gmtModify":1634096922602,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112738429","repostId":"1160563289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160563289","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622864224,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160563289?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index<blockquote>富时罗素将游戏驿站从小型股指数中剔除</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160563289","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 in ","content":"<p>FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 in the Russell U.S. index.</p><p><blockquote>富时罗素将游戏驿站从小盘股指数中剔除，特斯拉和摩根大通跻身罗素美国指数前10名。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index<blockquote>富时罗素将游戏驿站从小型股指数中剔除</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index<blockquote>富时罗素将游戏驿站从小型股指数中剔除</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-05 11:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 in the Russell U.S. index.</p><p><blockquote>富时罗素将游戏驿站从小盘股指数中剔除，特斯拉和摩根大通跻身罗素美国指数前10名。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IWM":"罗素2000指数ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","JPM":"摩根大通","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160563289","content_text":"FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 in the Russell U.S. index.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":0.9,"GME":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"IWM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102700495,"gmtCreate":1620245218317,"gmtModify":1634206759657,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shd have bough earlier","listText":"Shd have bough earlier","text":"Shd have bough earlier","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102700495","repostId":"1131387668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131387668","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620228331,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131387668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-05 23:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This COVID-19 Vaccine Stock Quietly Soared 75% In April: Is There More Upside Ahead?<blockquote>这只COVID-19疫苗股在4月份悄然飙升75%：未来还有更多上涨空间吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131387668","media":"benzinga","summary":"Shares ofBioNTech SE, which partnered withPfizer Inc. in successfully developing a vaccine against t","content":"<p><div> Shares ofBioNTech SE, which partnered withPfizer Inc. in successfully developing a vaccine against the coronavirus, have been gaining ground. BioNTech's Price Action:BioNTech and its partner ...</p><p><blockquote><div>BioNTech SE与辉瑞公司合作成功开发了针对冠状病毒的疫苗，其股价一直在上涨。BioNTech的价格走势：BioNTech及其合作伙伴...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This COVID-19 Vaccine Stock Quietly Soared 75% In April: Is There More Upside Ahead?<blockquote>这只COVID-19疫苗股在4月份悄然飙升75%：未来还有更多上涨空间吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis COVID-19 Vaccine Stock Quietly Soared 75% In April: Is There More Upside Ahead?<blockquote>这只COVID-19疫苗股在4月份悄然飙升75%：未来还有更多上涨空间吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-05 23:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Shares ofBioNTech SE, which partnered withPfizer Inc. in successfully developing a vaccine against the coronavirus, have been gaining ground. BioNTech's Price Action:BioNTech and its partner ...</p><p><blockquote><div>BioNTech SE与辉瑞公司合作成功开发了针对冠状病毒的疫苗，其股价一直在上涨。BioNTech的价格走势：BioNTech及其合作伙伴...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/05/20918917/this-covid-19-vaccine-stock-quietly-soared-75-in-april-is-there-more-upside-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131387668","content_text":"Shares ofBioNTech SE, which partnered withPfizer Inc. in successfully developing a vaccine against the coronavirus, have been gaining ground.\nBioNTech's Price Action:BioNTech and its partner Pfizerreceived in mid-Decemberauthorization for emergency use of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.\nBioNTech's shares, which rallied to a high of $131 ahead of the FDA decision, gave back part of the gains in a ‘buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news' move. The stock ended 2020 at $81.52, about 38% off the intraday high for the year.\nThe German vaccine maker's stock picked up momentum early in 2021, breaching the $100 psychological resistance level on Jan. 8 and trading in a $100-$120 range until early March.\nThe marketwide selloff in March did not spare BioNTech, with the stock dropping below $100 for a few sessions before climbing back again. The stock was locked in a lackluster phase until the end of March.\nCome April, the trend began to change. In the very first session of April, the stock rose over 4% and moved steadily higher through the month. In April alone, the stock added 72.4%.\nTo put things in perspective, if an investor had invested $1,000 in BioNTech shares at the end of March, their investment would now be worth $1,909.46 (using the intraday high of $207.55 hit on Monday). This would mean nearly doubling the investment in a span of a month.\nWhat's Behind The BioNTech Rally:The stock has been supported by the intermittent news flow regarding the company's vaccine.\nIn late March, the companies reported positive top-line results from a study evaluating the vaccine in adolescents.\nOn April 1, BioNTech and Pfizer reported data on BNT162b2 following six months of follow-up that confirmed its efficacy and safety.\nThe companies announced April 9 a request to the FDA to authorize expanded use of the vaccine in adolescents ages 12-15.\nThe FDA'sdecisionto temporarily pause the use ofJohnson & Johnson'sJNJ 0.2%vaccine also proved positive for BioNTech, which added about 7% on April 13 when the pause was announced.\nIn mid-April, the companies announced an agreement with the European Union to supply 100 million doses of BNT162b2, which is named Comirnaty in Europe, in 2021. With that, the total number of doses delivered to the EU is 600 million.\nLast week, a request was submitted to the EU to expand conditional marketing authorization to adolescents in the EU.\nWhat Lies Ahead For BioNTech Stock?BNT162b2 is expected to continue to boost BioNTech's top-line. Having delivered 200 million doses by the end of March, the company has signed orders for supplying 1.4 billion doses in 2021.\nPfizer and BioNTech plan to boost the manufacturing capacity for the vaccine to 2.5 billion doses by the end of 2021.\n\"BioNTech and Pfizer will be the standout leader in COVID-19 vaccination globally, with demand increasing for the 2.5Bn doses they are targeting to manufacture in 2021,\" SVB Leerink analyst Daina Graybosch said in a note.\nWith the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic now sweeping across several nations, the companies have a lucrative opportunity. The companies have also proved the efficacy of the vaccine against variants.\nOnce the pandemic phase passes, the vaccine has scope for use in endemic setting.\nMore importantly, BioNTech is not a one-trick pony. The company has a broad oncology pipeline consisting of 13 product candidates.\nWeighing in all the opportunities, further upside in the stock cannot be ruled out.\nBNTX Price Action:At last check, BioNTech shares were rising 8.2% to $191.38.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BNTX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120149548,"gmtCreate":1624316912684,"gmtModify":1634008051828,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120149548","repostId":"1126003524","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172906667,"gmtCreate":1626924826859,"gmtModify":1633769672421,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172906667","repostId":"1170597291","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170597291","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626923172,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170597291?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 11:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Planning 5G-Enabled Budget iPhone: Report<blockquote>苹果计划支持5G的廉价iPhone：报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170597291","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple, Inc. is gearing up to launch the next iteration of its iPhone — theiPhone 13— in September, a","content":"<p><div> Apple, Inc. is gearing up to launch the next iteration of its iPhone — theiPhone 13— in September, and analysts are optimistic concerning continued momentum for Cupertino's flagship product. It now ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司正准备在9月份推出下一代iPhone——iPhone 13，分析师对库比蒂诺旗舰产品的持续发展势头持乐观态度。它现在...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Planning 5G-Enabled Budget iPhone: Report<blockquote>苹果计划支持5G的廉价iPhone：报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Planning 5G-Enabled Budget iPhone: Report<blockquote>苹果计划支持5G的廉价iPhone：报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Apple, Inc. is gearing up to launch the next iteration of its iPhone — theiPhone 13— in September, and analysts are optimistic concerning continued momentum for Cupertino's flagship product. It now ...</p><p><blockquote><div>苹果公司正准备在9月份推出下一代iPhone——iPhone 13，分析师对库比蒂诺旗舰产品的持续发展势头持乐观态度。它现在...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/tech/21/07/22085978/apple-planning-5g-enabled-budget-iphone-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170597291","content_text":"Apple, Inc. is gearing up to launch the next iteration of its iPhone — theiPhone 13— in September, and analysts are optimistic concerning continued momentum for Cupertino's flagship product.\nIt now appears the tech giant is laying the groundwork for a follow-up budget model.\nWhat Happened:Apple's next budget iPhone, which is suffixed \"SE,\" could be launched as early as the first half of 2022, and it will come armed with an in-house A15 processor that is an integral part of premium iPhones, the Nikkei reported.\nThe iPhone SE model will have 5G connectivity powered by Qualcomm Incorporated's X60 modem chips, the report said.\nWith the planned 5G-enabled iPhone SE, Apple's iPhone portfolio will be complete with a full range of 5G offerings, Nikkei said.\nApple's budget 5G iPhone, according to the report, will look like a refreshed iPhone 8 version, and have a 4.7-inch liquid crystal diode display as opposed to the OLED displays used in theiPhone 12 lineup.\nWhy It's Important:The first iPhone SE was released in 2016, and the next budget model came out in April 2020. The iPhone SE released in 2020 was priced at $399.\nThe SE version makes iPhones affordable to the low end of the market, benefiting unit sales.\nApple plans to transition fully to 5G phones in 2021, Nikkei said.\nMini On Its Way Out:Additionally, Apple plans to phase out its iPhone Mini model in 2022 given its lack of appeal among users. Instead, the company is likely to release a relatively cost-effective iPhone Pro Max version, according to the report.\nThis will keep the iPhone models released in the second half of 2022 at four — two 6.1-inch handsets and two 6.7-inch ones, the report said, citing sources.\nAt last check, Apple shares were down 0.53% at $145.37.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148185722,"gmtCreate":1625960660566,"gmtModify":1633931419832,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148185722","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就必须用东西填满它。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可以限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA(+1.30%)和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就必须用东西填满它。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可以限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA(+1.30%)和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121816734,"gmtCreate":1624458476428,"gmtModify":1634005821774,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"N","listText":"N","text":"N","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121816734","repostId":"1170395888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170395888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624457324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170395888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170395888","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Thin","content":"<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育(TAL)子公司学而思(Xueersi.com)近几个月与联想(OTCPK：LNVGY)合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导参与者将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的成绩为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese Education Stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday<blockquote>中国教育股周三早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 22:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 23)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>（6月23日）周三早盘，中国教育股多数上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57df6b30357b75fb3994787c3780885e\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Do Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对冲基金认为EDU现在是一只值得买入的好股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> At first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有45家看好该股，较一季度前变化了5%。下面，您可以查看过去23个季度对冲基金对EDU情绪的变化。随着聪明资金的头寸经历了通常的潮起潮落，有一批值得注意的对冲基金经理正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/055cab6f7b38ad60f8784706fac000bf\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The largest stake in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.</p><p><blockquote>新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）的最大股份由D1 Capital Partners持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值3.505亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是GQG Partners，持仓量为3.198亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Tiger Global Management LLC、Farallon Capital和Alkeon Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Serenity Capital将最大的权重分配给了新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU），约占其13F投资组合的42.13%。麒麟管理层也相对非常看好该股，指定其13F股票投资组合的18.73%分配给EDU。</blockquote></p><p> As industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.</p><p><blockquote>随着整个行业的兴趣激增，一些大牌公司自己也在破土动工。由David Fear管理的Thunderbird Partners在新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所代码：EDU）中确立了最有价值的地位。截至本季度末，Thunderbird Partners向该公司投资了1670万美元。爱德华多·科斯塔(Eduardo Costa)的Calixto Global Investors也在本季度对该股进行了1,470万美元的投资。其他拥有全新EDU头寸的基金包括Matthew Hulsizer的PEAK6 Capital Management、Campbell Wilson的Old Well Partners和Daryl Smith的Kayak Investment Partners。</blockquote></p><p> Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下其他股票的对冲基金活动——不一定与新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）属于同一行业，但估值相似。这些股票包括Kansas City Southern(NYSE：KSU)、Nucor Corporation(NYSE：NUE)、Franco-Nevada Corporation(NYSE：FNV)、Fortive Corporation(NYSE：FTV)、The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc(NYSE：HIG)、Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）和Trip.com Group Limited（纳斯达克股票代码：TCOM）。所有这些股票的市值都最接近EDU的市值。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有32.1个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为12.39亿美元。在EDU的案例中，这一数字为21.88亿美元。哈特福德金融服务集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HIG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，Itau Unibanco Holding SA（纽约证券交易所股票代码：ITUB）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有12个看涨对冲基金头寸。新东方教育科技集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：EDU）并不是该组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对EDU的总体对冲基金情绪得分为70.7。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。这是一个稍微积极的信号，但我们宁愿花时间研究对冲基金正在买入的股票。我们的计算显示，对冲基金中最受欢迎的5只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为95.8%，比标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）高出40个百分点。截至6月18日，这些股票在2021年上涨了17.4%，再次跑赢大盘6.1个百分点。不幸的是，EDU并不像这5只股票那么受欢迎，押注EDU的对冲基金感到失望，因为该股自3月底（截至6月18日）以来的回报率为-45.8%，表现逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好未来教育：尚未准备好应对新一波市场竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.</li>  <li>In 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.</li>  <li>Unlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.</li>  <li>With COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.</li>  <li>We do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.</li> </ul> TAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education &amp; parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年第二季度收入和XRS在线增长低于普遍预期。</li><li>2020年，中国在线K12教育市场规模达到890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</li><li>与克星新东方不同，好未来对其他公司的投资金额自2016年以来持续减少。</li><li>随着新冠肺炎重塑市场，科技巨头已经开始大举进军数字教育行业。</li><li>我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。</li></ul>好未来教育集团（又名明天进阶）（好未来）是一家专注于中国K12学生的教育公司。它还拥有成人教育、早期教育和育儿以及教育信息化等业务板块。事务所以素质教育和课外辅导为载体体系，服务全球范围。成立于2003年，2010年在纽交所上市。</blockquote></p><p> In China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国，好未来与成立于1993年的新东方(EDU)公司竞争。可以说，两家事务所都在引领中国教育行业；其一，两者的市场覆盖范围势均力敌。从最新信息来看，新东方在中国总共98个城市和一个外国城市（多伦多）拥有活跃业务。好未来已在中国共90个城市布局业务。</blockquote></p><p> As parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着这个快速发展国家的家长越来越重视孩子的基础教育，以及电子学习的日益普及，广阔的中小学教育和在线教育领域最终成为企业的必争之地。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Decent financial results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不错的财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> TAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.</p><p><blockquote>好未来2021年第二季度的财务业绩并不是很令人印象深刻，该公司盈利11亿美元（同比增长20.8%），而分析师预期该季度为11.2亿美元。然而，该公司报告本季度每股收益为0.08美元，比分析师普遍预期的0.05美元高出0.03美元。由于初等教育领域的激烈竞争，好未来教育集团的股本回报率为0.21%，净利润率为1.35%，而2021年第一季度为8.97%。其中包括近期完成超轮投资的猿辅导、作业帮等本土纯在线教育公司。与此同时，由于激烈竞争导致客户获取成本上升，非GAAP营业利润率从2020年第二季度的9.8%降至-1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bea7dc26e41fa05c9d8fef1c355e7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>New market opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的五六年里，随着国家的支持、技术的发展、资本的流入，中国在线K12教育行业得到了飞速的发展。2020年，中国在线K12教育整体市场规模达到约890亿元人民币，同比增长37.6%。</blockquote></p><p> In 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.</p><p><blockquote>2019年，中国K12在线教育渗透率约为15%。随着新冠肺炎在2020年初的到来，在线教育的优势已经非常明显。在线K12教育渗透率在2020年3月达到峰值。虽然行业在国内仍处于消费普及阶段，但趋势明显。作为获取教育信息和服务的新兴方式，这一领域始终表现出长期的巨大需求。因此，行业渗透率未来有巨大的提升空间。根据中国科学院的预测，到2022年，K12在线教育行业的渗透率可能超过55%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c29976387d48527f1570b7fbf255f1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.</p><p><blockquote>好未来拥有871家学习中心（线下辅导中心）、648家培优的事实（好未来培优）中心和128个一对一中心是我们认为TAL不是疫情防护的原因。为了控制新冠肺炎的传播，政府可能会关闭这些中心，这将导致该公司的财务状况大幅下滑。</blockquote></p><p> TAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.</p><p><blockquote>好未来确实拥有在线教育应用程序，但它们无法与VIPKID、猿辅导和作业帮等公司竞争，尽管学而思好未来在线应用程序的收入贡献从2020财年第二季度的17%增加到2021财年第二季度的26%。</blockquote></p><p> The re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19在中国的重新出现对好未来的线下课堂培训业务来说是一个阻力。虽然疫苗已经出现，但18岁以下的儿童不允许接种。当大多数投资者意识到该公司仍然专注于正式或课堂辅导和培训时，好未来的股价可能很快就会下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> TAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.</p><p><blockquote>自大约九年前上市以来，好未来一直保持稳定增长。收入增长了约30倍，此后复合年增长率为45.7%，毛利率平均高达50.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Results from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>截至2月份的上一财年的业绩受到中国早期开始的COVID-19引发的限制的重大影响。线下运营，主要是核心培优小班，不得不迅速转移到线上平台。因此，由于在线课程售价较低，部分收入损失，第四季度总收入仅增长6.2%，而去年同期为44.1%。学生总入学率仍在同比增长56.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Less venture investment presence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险投资存在减少</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.</p><p><blockquote>2017年以来，好未来的投资数量不断减少。2018年以来，新东方相比好未来更加激进。好未来的融资从2016年的24笔锐减至2020年仅有两笔。这两项投资是在一个互动学习SaaS平台UMU和一个在线儿童数学辅导应用程序上进行的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6af29d7cc826e97357d73c53b7a51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The entrance of tech giants</b></p><p><blockquote><b>科技巨头的入场</b></blockquote></p><p> Sales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.</p><p><blockquote>随着夏季在线玩家的竞争变得激烈，销售和营销费用激增。销售和营销费用同比飙升64%，占总收入的22%，同比增长4.9%。</blockquote></p><p> With upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.</p><p><blockquote>随着新贵筹集巨额资金，好未来的处境可能会变得更加艰难，因为更多拥有巨额营销资金的公司将试图抢占市场份额。除此之外，阿里巴巴-SW（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）、网易（纳斯达克股票代码：NTES）、腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）、字节跳动和百度（纳斯达克股票代码：BIDU）等中国巨头也将业务涉足在线教育。好未来需要升级其在线教育业务以维持运营。</blockquote></p><p> The education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.</p><p><blockquote>教育领域很可能会被这个行业之外的公司瓜分。另外值得一提的是，事务所的核心竞争力是其在中国在线教育行业的大数据、直播智能等技术的深度应用。该公司在基于学费的专有技术方面的研发投入并不多。现有的进入壁垒很少。理论上，新进入者可以购买教学人员和市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Allegation probe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指控调查</b></blockquote></p><p> In April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.</p><p><blockquote>2020年4月，好未来承认因员工不当行为而夸大销售数据，成为丑闻缠身的在美上市中国公司之一，进一步阻碍了瑞星咖啡（OTCPK：LKNCY）3.1亿美元欺诈案后的市场信心。</blockquote></p><p> Two years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"</p><p><blockquote>在这一事件发生的两年前，浑水发布了一份报告，将该公司命名为“一家拥有虚假财务数据的真实企业”。该报告声称，“好未来在其核心培优业务的财务方面存在欺诈行为。培优欺诈行为更难量化，但我们的研究表明欺诈性夸大了公司收入的约25%至30%。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> This might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.</p><p><blockquote>现在可能不是投资好未来教育的合适时机。我们给予该股中性评级，因为我们认为该公司不会应对行业内即将到来的激烈竞争，但对其业务能力和稳定增长相当乐观。因此，好未来确实有机会增强其在线业务，并与新来者和经验丰富的企业竞争，包括作业帮、猿辅导、百度和网易等。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Gaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced</h3> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><h3>高途集团：政策悬空保持风险回报平衡</h3><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>The longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).</li>  <li>Adverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.</li>  <li>Growth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.</li>  <li>Despite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.</li> </ul> Newly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高途集团（原跟谁学）的长期前景依然光明。</li><li>不利的监管变化仍然是近期前景的主要风险，但更健康的长期动态应该有利于盈利。</li><li>替代学生获取渠道和成人教育贡献的增加等增长动力也应该有所帮助。</li><li>尽管EV/销售额倍数有折扣，但我现在会推迟建仓，等待政策悬而未决的清理。</li></ul>新更名的高途集团（GOTU/GSX）最近举办了投资者活动，对其运营进行了有趣的参观和高层管理战略介绍，及时洞察了长期前景。跟谁学特别强调，其将继续关注卓越教学、服务质量和技术投资作为关键差异化因素。然而，政策风险仍然是最大的担忧，如果政府对在线课后辅导领域的干预比预期更严格，我认为跟谁学的近期增长轨迹将面临重大下行风险。另一方面，这也可能导致更健康的行业动态，这也将推动亏损缩小。虽然政策改革悬而未决使得看涨变得困难，但跟谁学的折扣c。3倍的EV/销售额倍数看起来也不高，保持了风险/回报相当平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels</b></p><p><blockquote><b>替代学生获取渠道日益重要</b></blockquote></p><p> Worryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，GSX在FQ4'20和FQ1'21的流量获取量有所减少，c.2021年1月至2月的销售线索成本降低20%（低于2020年11月至12月期间）。最近的下降可能是由于今年早些时候教育部(MOE)的一次采访引发了围绕在线流量获取的监管不确定性。21年第一季度新入学人数增长的巨大压力可能也是营收指引低于预期的原因之一。作为回应，管理层正在探索新的学生获取渠道来抵消压力——这包括线下、短视频和直播电子商务渠道等。好消息是，这里的成功扩张可能会使学生获取成本降低50%以上，这对利润率前景有利（跟谁学目前在运营层面处于亏损状态）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2602f4695bfb8d694d546b29bca897a\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> However, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>然而，跟谁学在这方面并不孤单——其他在线AST玩家也发起了类似的举动，从51talk（COE）、VIPKID、新东方子公司新东方在线等在线一对一和小班玩家，其大班覆盖已达约100个城市。同样，在线大班课后辅导企业也开始通过合作伙伴关系向线下扩张，好未来教育(TAL)子公司学而思(Xueersi.com)近几个月与联想(OTCPK：LNVGY)合作。随着作业帮等民营企业也在组建线下流量获取团队，竞争压力可能会导致近期前景下行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Adult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver</b></p><p><blockquote><b>成人教育将成为另一个营收增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> Within the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在中国教育市场，成人教育也正成为一个潜在的增长机会，因为人们越来越多地希望在不确定的就业市场中提升技能。随着收入水平的提高，人们也在教育上投入更多，以更好地为职业发展做好准备。因此，总账单以24.5%的复合年增长率增长，预计到2023财年将以22.4%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到人民币2,650亿元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98361534c62ba1d36e6adf2696116a49\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"200\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing</p><p><blockquote>来源：跟谁学上市招股书备案</blockquote></p><p> Notably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，虽然跟谁学目前预计2021财年收入同比增长70-80%，但成人教育业务预计将成为关键增长动力，收入同比增长+100%。考虑到成人教育在2020财年占跟谁学收入的10%以上，我预计这一贡献将随着时间的推移继续上升。这里的主要增长领域包括英语培训、研究生入学考试准备和金融相关课程。从长远来看，我认为成人教育业务的毛利率甚至可能高于K-12课后辅导，因为入学率/导师比率更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Online Regulations Remain the Key Concern</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在线监管仍然是主要关注点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Looking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，课后辅导领域潜在的在线监管令人担忧，可能采取的措施包括禁止虚假广告、加强对教育营销支出的控制以及对机构和教师更严格的质量要求。另一方面，从长远来看，这些措施也将有利于整体行业发展，让在线课后辅导参与者将更多资金再投资于提高产品和教学质量。虽然线下/线上市场的新法规仍然缺乏清晰度，但我看到了比2018年之前的行业经验更积极的结果。</blockquote></p><p> Any restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.</p><p><blockquote>对营销限制的任何限制都可能在短期内对注册人数和销售增长产生负面影响，但由于营销支出较低，也将有利于利润率。反过来，这应该会改善该业务的长期经济效益，并推动下一季度亏损缩小。增长放缓带来的另一个关键积极因素是，跟谁学将能够专注于提高其产品/服务质量并提取更多学生终身价值，同时保持其稳健的资产负债表。截至2020年底，GSX的成绩为c。人民币82亿元的现金头寸（包括流动投资），这应该使其能够抵御任何不可预见的负面政策影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a96e5d1f7d5a8fb561314a81180e06dd\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: GSX Investor Presentation Slides</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：跟谁学投资者演示幻灯片</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最终拍摄</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，营销法规可能会对注册人数和营收增长产生负面影响，但也应该会带来更健康的运营动态并缩小未来的亏损。由于跟谁学还专注于替代收购渠道并进军成人教育等市场，我认为该公司可能会在未来几个季度带来积极的惊喜。尽管跟谁学股价因Archegos Capital事件和政策担忧而遭受损失，但其远期EV/销售额倍数已大幅下降至c。3倍，与好未来和EDU等同行的相对折扣不断扩大，可能意味着负面影响已被消化。然而，在政策悬而未决之前，我认为风险/回报在当前水平上是平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd579bffc2a24fd55d7ccc3346eae7cb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOTU":"高途","TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170395888","content_text":"(June 23) Most of Chinese education stocks gained in morning trading Wednesday.\n\nDo Hedge Funds Think EDU Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?\nAt first quarter's end, a total of 45 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 5% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards EDU over the last 23 quarters. With the smart money's positions undergoing their usual ebb and flow, there exists an \"upper tier\" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings significantly (or already accumulated large positions).\nThe largest stake in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) was held byD1 Capital Partners, which reported holding $350.5 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by GQG Partners with a $319.8 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Tiger Global Management LLC, Farallon Capital, and Alkeon Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Serenity Capital allocated the biggest weight to New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), around 42.13% of its 13F portfolio.Kylin Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 18.73 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to EDU.\nAs industrywide interest jumped, some big names were breaking ground themselves. Thunderbird Partners, managed by David Fear, established the most valuable position in New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU). Thunderbird Partners had $16.7 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Eduardo Costa'sCalixto Global Investorsalso made a $14.7 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new EDU positions are Matthew Hulsizer's PEAK6 Capital Management, Campbell Wilson'sOld Well Partners, and Daryl Smith's Kayak Investment Partners.\nLet's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) but similarly valued. These stocks are Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU), Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:FNV), Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV), The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG), Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB), and Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to EDU's market cap.\nAs you can see these stocks had an average of 32.1 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $1239 million. That figure was $2188 million in EDU's case. The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Itau Unibanco Holding SA (NYSE:ITUB) is the least popular one with only 12 bullish hedge fund positions. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for EDU is 70.7. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. This is a slightly positive signal but we'd rather spend our time researching stocks that hedge funds are piling on. Our calculations showed thattop 5 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 95.8% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 40 percentage points. These stocks gained 17.4% in 2021 through June 18th and beat the market again by 6.1 percentage points. Unfortunately EDU wasn't nearly as popular as these 5 stocks and hedge funds that were betting on EDU were disappointed as the stock returned -45.8% since the end of March (through 6/18) and underperformed the market.\nTAL Education: Not Ready To Handle A New Wave Of Market Rivalry\nSummary\n\nFY2Q2021 revenue and XRS online growth fell below consensus expectations.\nIn 2020, the online K12 education market size in China reached CNY 89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6%.\nUnlike its nemesis New Oriental, TAL's investment amount into other firms has been continuously decreasing since 2016.\nWith COVID-19 reshaping the market, tech giants have started to make big moves into the digital education industry.\nWe do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth.\n\nTAL Education Group (also known as Tomorrow Advanced Learning) (TAL) is an education company that focuses on K12 students in China. It also has business segments in adult education, early education & parenting and education informatization. The firm takes quality education and extracurricular tutoring as the carrier system to serve on a global scale. Founded in 2003, it went public on NYSE in 2010.\nIn China, TAL competes with New Oriental (EDU), a company founded back in 1993. It can be said that both firms are leading China's education industry; for one, the market coverage of the two is evenly matched. From the latest information, New Oriental has active businesses in a total of 98 cities in China and one foreign city (Toronto). TAL has laid its business in a total of 90 cities across China.\nAs parents in the fast-growing country pay more and more attention to their children's basic education and e-learning is increasingly popular, the vast field of primary and secondary education and online education has eventually become a battleground for companies.\nDecent financial results\nTAL's 2Q 2021financial resultsweren't very impressive, as the firm earned USD 1.10 billion (up 20.8% year-on-year) compared to analysts' expectations of USD 1.12 billion for the quarter. However, it reported USD 0.08 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of USD 0.05 by USD 0.03. TAL Education Group had a return on equity of 0.21% and a net margin of 1.35% compared to 8.97% in 1Q 2021 due to strong competition presented in the primary education segment. It includes local pure online education companies such asYuanfudaoandZuoyebangthat recently completed mega-rounds of investment. Meanwhile, the non-GAAP operating margins were down to -1.1% compared to 9.8% in 2Q 2020 as customer acquisition costs rose backed by the fierce competition.\nNew market opportunities\nIn the past five to six years, with the support of the state, the development of technology, and the inflow of capital, China's online K12 education industry has undergone rapid development. In 2020, the overall online K12 education market size in China reached approximately CNY 89 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 37.6%.\nIn 2019, the penetration rate of K12 online education in China was about 15%. As COVID-19 struck during the beginning of 2020, the advantages of online education have been very apparent. The penetration rate of online K12 education reached its peak in March 2020. Although the industry is still in the stage of consumption popularization in China, there are obvious trends. This field consistently demonstrates a long-term massive demand as an emerging way of obtaining education information and services. Hence, the industry penetration rate has huge room for improvement in the future. According to thepredictionof the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the penetration rate of the K12 online education industry may exceed 55% by 2022.\n\nThe fact that TAL owns 871 learning centers (offline tutoring centers), 648 Peiyou (好未来培优) centers and 128 one-on-one centers is the reason why we believe TAL is not pandemic-proof. Possible closure of these centers by the government in order to control the spread of COVID-19 will lead to huge declines in the firm's financials.\nTAL does own online education apps – but they can't compete with the likes of VIPKID, Yuanfudao, and Zuoyebang, even though there has been an increase in revenue contribution of Xueersi TAL’s online app from 17% in FY2Q2020 to 26% in FY2Q2021.\nThe re-emergence of COVID-19 in China is a headwind for TAL's offline classroom-based training business. Although the vaccine has emerged, children below the age of 18 are not allowed to administer it. TAL's stock price might soon fall when most investors realize that the company still focused on formal or classroom-based tutorials and training.\nTAL has had stable growth since getting listed about nine years ago. Revenue has increased about 30 times, at a compound annual rate of 45.7% since then and gross margins averaged as high as 50.8%.\nResults from the last fiscal year ending February were materially affected by COVID-19 induced restrictions which had started early in China. Offline operations, primarily core Peiyou small classes, had to be quickly transferred to online platforms. As a result, some revenue was lost due to the lower selling prices for online classes, the total revenue in Q4 grew just 6.2% compared to 44.1% the previous year. Student enrollments were still up on aggregate with a rate of, 56.6% year-over-year.\nLess venture investment presence\nSince 2017, the number of investments by TAL has been decreasing. New Oriental has been more aggressive compared to TAL since 2018. TAL's financing has dropped sharply from 24 in 2016 to only two in 2020. The two investments were made on an interactive learning SaaS platform UMU and an online children's math tutoring app.\n\nThe entrance of tech giants\nSales and marketing expenses surged as the competition got tough for online players in the summer. Sales and marketing expenses surged 64% year-on-year and made up 22% of the total revenue, up 4.9% year-on-year.\nWith upstarts raising mega-rounds, things might get even tougher for TAL as more companies with huge capital to spend on marketing will try to grab market share. Other than that, Chinese giants such as Alibaba(NYSE:BABA), NetEase(NASDAQ:NTES), Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY), ByteDance and Baidu(NASDAQ:BIDU)engage their businesses into online education. TAL needs to upgrade its online education business to stay afloat.\nThe education field is likely to be divided up by companies outside of this industry. It is also worth mentioning that the firm's key competitiveness is its in-depth application of technologies such as big data and live broadcast intelligence in China's online education industry. The firm has not spent much on research and development in terms of proprietary tuition-based technology. There are few existing barriers to entry. Teaching staff and market share could be theoretically purchased by new entrants.\nAllegation probe\nIn April 2020,TAL became one of the scandalous US-listed Chinese firmsafter admitting to inflate sales figures driven by employee wrongdoing, further hindering market confidence after Luckin Coffee's(OTCPK:LKNCY)USD 310 million fraud.\nTwo years before this event, Muddy Waters released areportnaming the company 'A Real Business With Fake Financials.' The report claimed that \"TAL commits fraud in the financials for its core Peiyou business. The Peiyou fraud is more difficult to quantify, but our research suggests fraudulent overstatement of approximately 25% to 30% of the company’s revenue.\"\nBottom line\nThis might not be a suitable time to invest in TAL Education. We give a neutral rating to the stock because we do not see the company handling the upcoming tough competition within the industry but are rather optimistic about its business capabilities and steady growth. Therefore, TAL does have a chance to enhance its online business and compete with newcomers and experienced enterprises, including the likes of Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, Baidu and NetEase.\nGaotu Group: Policy Overhang Keeps The Risk-Reward Balanced\nSummary\n\nThe longer-term outlook remains bright for Gaotu Group (formerly GSX TechEdu).\nAdverse regulatory changes remain the key risk for the near-term outlook, but a healthier longer-term dynamic should benefit profitability.\nGrowth drivers such as alternative student acquisition channels and increased contribution from adult education should help as well.\nDespite the discounted EV/Sales multiple, I would hold off on initiating a position for now pending clearance of the policy overhang.\n\nNewly rebranded Gaotu Group’s (GOTU/GSX) recently heldinvestor eventfeatured an interesting tour of its operation and top management strategy presentations, which offered timely insight into the longer-term outlook. In particular, GSX emphasized its continued focus on teaching excellence, service quality, and technology investments as key differentiators. However, policy risks remains the biggest concern, and if government intervention in the online after-school tutoring space turns out to be stricter than expected, I see material downside risks to GSX’s near-term growth trajectory. On the flip side, it could also result in a healthier industry dynamic, which should drive narrowing losses as well. While the policy reform overhang makes it difficult to turn bullish, GSX’s discounted c. 3x EV/Sales multiple also looks undemanding, keeping the risk/reward fairly balanced.\nGrowing Importance of Alternative Student Acquisition Channels\nWorryingly, GSX has seen reduced traffic acquisition in FQ4 ‘20 and FQ1 ‘21, with a whopping c. 20% lower sales lead cost in Jan-Feb 2021 (down from the Nov-Dec 2020 period). The recent decline is likely attributable to regulatory uncertainties around online traffic acquisition triggered by a recent Ministry of Education (MOE)interviewearlier this year. The significantly pressured new enrolment growth in FQ1 ‘21 may have been one of the reasons for the lower-than-expected top-line guidance as well. In response, management is exploring new student acquisition channels to offset the pressure – this includes the offline, short video, and live streaming e-commerce channels, among others. The good news is that successful expansion here could see the student acquisition cost lowered by over 50%, which is positive for the margin outlook (GSX is currently loss-making at the operating level).\n\nSource:GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nHowever, GSX is not alone in this regard – other online AST players have initiated similar moves, from online one-on-one and small-class players such as 51talk (COE), VIPKID, and New Oriental subsidiary Koolearn, whose large-class coverage has reached c.100 cities. Similarly, online large-class after-school tutoring players have also started expanding into offline acquisition through partnerships, with TAL Education (TAL) subsidiaryXueersi.comalsotying upwith Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) in recent months. And with private players like Zuoyebang alsobuildingoffline traffic acquisition teams, the competitive pressures could drive downside to the near-term outlook.\nAdult Education Set to be Another Top-Line Growth Driver\nWithin the Chinese education market, adult education is also emerging as a potential growth opportunity as people are increasingly looking to upskill in an uncertain job market. Alongside income level rises, people are also spending more on education to better prepare themselves for career development. As a result, gross billings have grown at a CAGR of 24.5% and are expected to grow further at 22.4% CAGR into fiscal 2023, reaching RMB265 billion.\n\nSource:GSX Listing Prospectus Filing\nNotably, while GSX currently expects fiscal 2021 revenue growth to be in the range of 70-80% Y/Y, the adult education business is guided to be a key growth driver at +100% Y/Y revenue growth. Considering that adult education accounted for over 10% of GSX’s revenue in fiscal 2020, I expect the contribution to continue rising over time. Key areas of growth here include English training, graduate school admission exam prep, and finance-related courses. Longer-term, I think the adult education business could even see higher gross margins than K-12 after-school tutoring due to the higher enrolment/tutor ratio.\nOnline Regulations Remain the Key Concern\nLooking ahead, potential online regulations in the after-school tutoring space are concerning, with likely measures including a fake advertising ban, increased control over marketing spend in education, and more stringent quality requirements for institutions and instructors. On the flip side, these measures will also be beneficial to the overall industry development longer-term, allowing online after-school tutoring players to reinvest more dollars into improving the product and teaching quality. While clarity around the new regulations for both the offline/online markets remains lacking, I see a more positive outcome than the prior industry experience in 2018.\nAny restrictions on marketing limitation will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and sales growth in the near term but will also benefit margins due to the lower marketing spending. In turn, this should improve the longer-term economics of the business and drive narrowing losses in the upcoming quarter. Another key positive from the slower growth is that GSX will be able to focus on improving its product/service quality and extract more student lifetime value while also preserving its robust balance sheet. As of end-2020, GSX had a c. RMB8.2 billion cash position (including liquid investments), which should allow it to weather any unforeseen negative policy impacts.\n\nSource: GSX Investor Presentation Slides\nFinal Take\nOverall, regulations on marketing will likely have a negative impact on enrolment and top-line growth but should also lead to a healthier operating dynamic and narrowing losses ahead. With GSX also focused on alternative acquisition channels and tapping into markets such as adult education, I think the company could surprise positively in the upcoming quarters. While the GSX share price has suffered due to the Archegos Capital event and policy concerns, its forward EV/Sales multiple has declined significantly to c. 3x, and the widening relative discount to peers like TAL and EDU likely means the negatives have been priced in. Until the policy overhang has been lifted, however, I see the risk/reward as balanced at current levels.\nData by 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op":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160602052","repostId":"1121368819","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183786747,"gmtCreate":1623359318489,"gmtModify":1634034308856,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183786747","repostId":"1193863762","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193863762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623334800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193863762?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 22:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Global Semiconductor annual sales projected to increase 19.7% in 2021, 8.8% in 2022<blockquote>全球半导体年销售额预计2021年增长19.7%，2022年增长8.8%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193863762","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"(June 10) Semiconductor stocks rose in morning trading.\nRelated: Semiconductor Watchlist: Jim Cramer","content":"<p>(June 10)&nbsp;Semiconductor&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月10日）半导体股早盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1163875762\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Related:&nbsp;Semiconductor Watchlist: Jim Cramer Says to Own Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom</b></a><b></b></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1163875762\" target=\"_blank\"><b>相关：半导体观察名单：吉姆·克莱默表示将拥有英伟达、AMD和博通</b></a><b></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb703ee8165d2dc48c5550db47dfebc7\" tg-width=\"303\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics estimates, the global semiconductor market will rise from 6.8% in 2020 to 19.7% thisyear to ~$527B.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界半导体贸易统计估计，全球半导体市场将从2020年的6.8%上升到今年的19.7%，达到约527B美元。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant growth contributors are Memory with 31.7%, followed by Sensors with 22.4% and, Analog with 21.7%. All other major product categories are also expected to show double-digit growth rates, except Optoelectronics with 9.8% and MOS Micro with 8.1%.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的增长贡献者是内存，占31.7%，其次是传感器，占22.4%，模拟占21.7%。除光电9.8%和MOS微8.1%外，所有其他主要产品类别预计也将呈现两位数的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Asia Pacific (incl. China) is forecasted to show the most robust growth rate with 23.5%, followed by Europe with 21.1%, Japan 12.7%, and the Americas with 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，亚太地区（包括中国）的增长率预计最强劲，为23.5%，其次是欧洲，为21.1%，日本为12.7%，美洲为11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For 2022, the global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 8.8% to $573B, driven by double-digit growth of the Memory category. All regions are expected again to show favorable growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>2022年，在内存类别两位数增长的推动下，全球半导体市场预计将增长8.8%，达到5730亿美元。预计所有地区都将再次显示出良好的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Related stocks YTD returns: NXP Semiconductor(NASDAQ:NXPI)&nbsp;+24.7%, On Semiconducter(NASDAQ:ON)&nbsp;+14.85%, Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)&nbsp;+14.4%,&nbsp; and, TSMC(NYSE:TSM)&nbsp;+6.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相关股票年初至今回报率：恩智浦半导体（纳斯达克：NXPI）+24.7%、安森美半导体（纳斯达克：ON）+14.85%、英特尔（纳斯达克：INTC）+14.4%、台积电（纽约证券交易所：TSM）+6.3%。</blockquote></p><p> ETFs:SMH,SOXL,SOXX,XSD,USD,SOXS,PSI,FTXL,SSG.</p><p><blockquote>ETF：SMH、SOXL、SOXX、XSD、USD、SOXS、PSI、FTXL、SSG。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global Semiconductor annual sales projected to increase 19.7% in 2021, 8.8% in 2022<blockquote>全球半导体年销售额预计2021年增长19.7%，2022年增长8.8%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal Semiconductor annual sales projected to increase 19.7% in 2021, 8.8% in 2022<blockquote>全球半导体年销售额预计2021年增长19.7%，2022年增长8.8%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 22:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 10)&nbsp;Semiconductor&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rose&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（6月10日）半导体股早盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1163875762\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Related:&nbsp;Semiconductor Watchlist: Jim Cramer Says to Own Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom</b></a><b></b></p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1163875762\" target=\"_blank\"><b>相关：半导体观察名单：吉姆·克莱默表示将拥有英伟达、AMD和博通</b></a><b></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb703ee8165d2dc48c5550db47dfebc7\" tg-width=\"303\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics estimates, the global semiconductor market will rise from 6.8% in 2020 to 19.7% thisyear to ~$527B.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界半导体贸易统计估计，全球半导体市场将从2020年的6.8%上升到今年的19.7%，达到约527B美元。</blockquote></p><p> The most significant growth contributors are Memory with 31.7%, followed by Sensors with 22.4% and, Analog with 21.7%. All other major product categories are also expected to show double-digit growth rates, except Optoelectronics with 9.8% and MOS Micro with 8.1%.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的增长贡献者是内存，占31.7%，其次是传感器，占22.4%，模拟占21.7%。除光电9.8%和MOS微8.1%外，所有其他主要产品类别预计也将呈现两位数的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021, Asia Pacific (incl. China) is forecasted to show the most robust growth rate with 23.5%, followed by Europe with 21.1%, Japan 12.7%, and the Americas with 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，亚太地区（包括中国）的增长率预计最强劲，为23.5%，其次是欧洲，为21.1%，日本为12.7%，美洲为11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For 2022, the global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 8.8% to $573B, driven by double-digit growth of the Memory category. All regions are expected again to show favorable growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>2022年，在内存类别两位数增长的推动下，全球半导体市场预计将增长8.8%，达到5730亿美元。预计所有地区都将再次显示出良好的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Related stocks YTD returns: NXP Semiconductor(NASDAQ:NXPI)&nbsp;+24.7%, On Semiconducter(NASDAQ:ON)&nbsp;+14.85%, Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)&nbsp;+14.4%,&nbsp; and, TSMC(NYSE:TSM)&nbsp;+6.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相关股票年初至今回报率：恩智浦半导体（纳斯达克：NXPI）+24.7%、安森美半导体（纳斯达克：ON）+14.85%、英特尔（纳斯达克：INTC）+14.4%、台积电（纽约证券交易所：TSM）+6.3%。</blockquote></p><p> ETFs:SMH,SOXL,SOXX,XSD,USD,SOXS,PSI,FTXL,SSG.</p><p><blockquote>ETF：SMH、SOXL、SOXX、XSD、USD、SOXS、PSI、FTXL、SSG。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3704878-global-semiconductor-annual-sales-projected-to-increase-about-20-percentage-in-2021-and-9-percentage-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","ON":"安森美半导体","TSM":"台积电","NXPI":"恩智浦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3704878-global-semiconductor-annual-sales-projected-to-increase-about-20-percentage-in-2021-and-9-percentage-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193863762","content_text":"(June 10) Semiconductor stocks rose in morning trading.\nRelated: Semiconductor Watchlist: Jim Cramer Says to Own Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom\n\nAccording to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics estimates, the global semiconductor market will rise from 6.8% in 2020 to 19.7% thisyear to ~$527B.\nThe most significant growth contributors are Memory with 31.7%, followed by Sensors with 22.4% and, Analog with 21.7%. All other major product categories are also expected to show double-digit growth rates, except Optoelectronics with 9.8% and MOS Micro with 8.1%.\nIn 2021, Asia Pacific (incl. China) is forecasted to show the most robust growth rate with 23.5%, followed by Europe with 21.1%, Japan 12.7%, and the Americas with 11.1%.\nFor 2022, the global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 8.8% to $573B, driven by double-digit growth of the Memory category. All regions are expected again to show favorable growth rates.\nRelated stocks YTD returns: NXP Semiconductor(NASDAQ:NXPI) +24.7%, On Semiconducter(NASDAQ:ON) +14.85%, Intel(NASDAQ:INTC) +14.4%,  and, TSMC(NYSE:TSM) +6.3%.\nETFs:SMH,SOXL,SOXX,XSD,USD,SOXS,PSI,FTXL,SSG.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NXPI":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"ON":0.9,"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196728366,"gmtCreate":1621124487655,"gmtModify":1634193969074,"author":{"id":"3582013357833186","authorId":"3582013357833186","name":"Domgoh77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ce6d69dd25d6cdaaa390ed2c985fcd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582013357833186","authorIdStr":"3582013357833186"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196728366","repostId":"1192168156","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1192168156","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620985878,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192168156?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 17:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney slips over 3% as quarter's streaming subs fail to rise to pandemic occasion<blockquote>由于本季度流媒体订阅量未能跟上大流行的步伐，迪士尼股价下跌超过3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192168156","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" Walt Disney is 3.38% lower on its fiscal second-quarter earnings report, where revenues fell worse than expected and itshighly watched Disney Plus subscriber numbers fell short of expectations.Revenues fell 13.3% to $15.6B, some $320M short of consensus, as streaming didn't mitigate parks losses as much as expected. And profitability measures by contrast came in ahead of expectations.EPS excluding certain items rose 32% to $0.79, however. . But Disney Plus subscribers hit 103.6M. That's roughly","content":"<p>(May 14)&nbsp;Walt Disney&nbsp;is&nbsp;3.38% lower&nbsp;on its&nbsp;fiscal second-quarter earnings report, where revenues fell worse than expected and itshighly watched Disney Plus subscriber numbers fell short of expectations.</p><p><blockquote>（5月14日）华特迪斯尼公布第二财季收益报告，股价下跌3.38%，该报告营收降幅低于预期，备受关注的迪斯尼加用户数量也低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fcfefdaaf6cf9a01e3bc834d1f8a64\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"564\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenues fell 13.3% to $15.6B, some $320M short of consensus, as streaming didn't mitigate parks losses as much as expected. And profitability measures by contrast came in ahead of expectations.</p><p><blockquote>收入下降13.3%至$15.6 B，比共识低约3.2亿美元，因为流媒体并没有像预期那样减轻公园的损失。相比之下，盈利指标超出了预期。</blockquote></p><p> EPS excluding certain items rose 32% to $0.79, however. (As reported, EPS from continuing operations rose to $0.50 from $0.26.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，不包括某些项目的每股收益增长32%，至0.79美元。（据报道，持续经营业务的每股收益从0.26美元升至0.50美元。）</blockquote></p><p> But Disney Plus subscribers hit 103.6M. That's roughly in line with investor expectations though analysts were looking for a figure closer to 109M.</p><p><blockquote>但Disney Plus用户达到1.036亿。这大致符合投资者的预期，尽管分析师预计这一数字接近1.09亿。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue by segment: Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution, $12.4B (up 1%); Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, $3.17B (down 44%).</p><p><blockquote>按部门划分的收入：迪士尼媒体和娱乐发行，$12.4 B（增长1%）；迪士尼乐园、体验和产品，31.7亿美元（下降44%）。</blockquote></p><p> Operating income by segment: Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution, $2.87B (up 74%); Parks, Experiences and Products, -$406M (down from $756M a year ago).</p><p><blockquote>按部门划分的营业收入：迪士尼媒体和娱乐发行，$2.87 B（增长74%）；公园、体验和产品——4.06亿美元（低于一年前的7.56亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re pleased to see more encouraging signs of recovery across our businesses, and we remain focused on ramping up our operations while also fueling long-term growth for the Company,” says CEO Bob Chapek. “This is clearly reflected in the reopening of our theme parks and resorts, increased production at our studios, the continued success of our streaming services, and the expansion of our unrivaled portfolio of multiyear sports rights deals for ESPN and ESPN Plus.”</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克(Bob Chapek)表示：“我们很高兴看到我们的业务出现更多令人鼓舞的复苏迹象，我们仍然专注于扩大运营，同时推动公司的长期增长。”“这清楚地反映在我们的主题公园和度假村的重新开放、我们工作室的产量增加、我们流媒体服务的持续成功以及我们无与伦比的ESPN和ESPN Plus多年体育转播权交易组合的扩大上。”</blockquote></p><p> Cash from continuing operations fell 56% to $1.39B, and free cash flow slipped 67% to $623M.</p><p><blockquote>持续经营现金下降56%至$1.39 B，自由现金流下滑67%至$6.23亿。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney slips over 3% as quarter's streaming subs fail to rise to pandemic occasion<blockquote>由于本季度流媒体订阅量未能跟上大流行的步伐，迪士尼股价下跌超过3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney slips over 3% as quarter's streaming subs fail to rise to pandemic occasion<blockquote>由于本季度流媒体订阅量未能跟上大流行的步伐，迪士尼股价下跌超过3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-14 17:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(May 14)&nbsp;Walt Disney&nbsp;is&nbsp;3.38% lower&nbsp;on its&nbsp;fiscal second-quarter earnings report, where revenues fell worse than expected and itshighly watched Disney Plus subscriber numbers fell short of expectations.</p><p><blockquote>（5月14日）华特迪斯尼公布第二财季收益报告，股价下跌3.38%，该报告营收降幅低于预期，备受关注的迪斯尼加用户数量也低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83fcfefdaaf6cf9a01e3bc834d1f8a64\" tg-width=\"769\" tg-height=\"564\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenues fell 13.3% to $15.6B, some $320M short of consensus, as streaming didn't mitigate parks losses as much as expected. And profitability measures by contrast came in ahead of expectations.</p><p><blockquote>收入下降13.3%至$15.6 B，比共识低约3.2亿美元，因为流媒体并没有像预期那样减轻公园的损失。相比之下，盈利指标超出了预期。</blockquote></p><p> EPS excluding certain items rose 32% to $0.79, however. (As reported, EPS from continuing operations rose to $0.50 from $0.26.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，不包括某些项目的每股收益增长32%，至0.79美元。（据报道，持续经营业务的每股收益从0.26美元升至0.50美元。）</blockquote></p><p> But Disney Plus subscribers hit 103.6M. That's roughly in line with investor expectations though analysts were looking for a figure closer to 109M.</p><p><blockquote>但Disney Plus用户达到1.036亿。这大致符合投资者的预期，尽管分析师预计这一数字接近1.09亿。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue by segment: Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution, $12.4B (up 1%); Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, $3.17B (down 44%).</p><p><blockquote>按部门划分的收入：迪士尼媒体和娱乐发行，$12.4 B（增长1%）；迪士尼乐园、体验和产品，31.7亿美元（下降44%）。</blockquote></p><p> Operating income by segment: Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution, $2.87B (up 74%); Parks, Experiences and Products, -$406M (down from $756M a year ago).</p><p><blockquote>按部门划分的营业收入：迪士尼媒体和娱乐发行，$2.87 B（增长74%）；公园、体验和产品——4.06亿美元（低于一年前的7.56亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re pleased to see more encouraging signs of recovery across our businesses, and we remain focused on ramping up our operations while also fueling long-term growth for the Company,” says CEO Bob Chapek. “This is clearly reflected in the reopening of our theme parks and resorts, increased production at our studios, the continued success of our streaming services, and the expansion of our unrivaled portfolio of multiyear sports rights deals for ESPN and ESPN Plus.”</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官鲍勃·查佩克(Bob Chapek)表示：“我们很高兴看到我们的业务出现更多令人鼓舞的复苏迹象，我们仍然专注于扩大运营，同时推动公司的长期增长。”“这清楚地反映在我们的主题公园和度假村的重新开放、我们工作室的产量增加、我们流媒体服务的持续成功以及我们无与伦比的ESPN和ESPN Plus多年体育转播权交易组合的扩大上。”</blockquote></p><p> Cash from continuing operations fell 56% to $1.39B, and free cash flow slipped 67% to $623M.</p><p><blockquote>持续经营现金下降56%至$1.39 B，自由现金流下滑67%至$6.23亿。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192168156","content_text":"(May 14) Walt Disney is 3.38% lower on its fiscal second-quarter earnings report, where revenues fell worse than expected and itshighly watched Disney Plus subscriber numbers fell short of expectations.\n\nRevenues fell 13.3% to $15.6B, some $320M short of consensus, as streaming didn't mitigate parks losses as much as expected. And profitability measures by contrast came in ahead of expectations.\nEPS excluding certain items rose 32% to $0.79, however. (As reported, EPS from continuing operations rose to $0.50 from $0.26.)\nBut Disney Plus subscribers hit 103.6M. That's roughly in line with investor expectations though analysts were looking for a figure closer to 109M.\nRevenue by segment: Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution, $12.4B (up 1%); Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, $3.17B (down 44%).\nOperating income by segment: Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution, $2.87B (up 74%); Parks, Experiences and Products, -$406M (down from $756M a year ago).\n“We’re pleased to see more encouraging signs of recovery across our businesses, and we remain focused on ramping up our operations while also fueling long-term growth for the Company,” says CEO Bob Chapek. “This is clearly reflected in the reopening of our theme parks and resorts, increased production at our studios, the continued success of our streaming services, and the expansion of our unrivaled portfolio of multiyear sports rights deals for ESPN and ESPN Plus.”\nCash from continuing operations fell 56% to $1.39B, and free cash flow slipped 67% to $623M.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}