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ditti

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2021-12-08

Insider buying..

DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading<blockquote>DocuSign股价早盘上涨5%</blockquote>

2021-07-07

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-28

Looks up.

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2021-06-25

Buyer beware.

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2021-06-23

Already stated they want to run economy hot. Recent comments just to assuage market fears.

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2021-06-20

Great to hear.

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2021-06-18

Shopping still popular.

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2021-06-18

Depends on Saudi.

Why oil prices may shoot at least 15% higher: Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：为什么油价可能上涨至少15%</blockquote>

2021-06-16

Interesting...

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2021-06-14

Exciting!

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2021-06-13

Really muted.

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2021-06-12

Wow

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2021-06-10

Still super bullish...

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2021-06-07

Exciting times.

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2021-06-06

Might pop.

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2021-06-04

Definitely won't be like last decade.

Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-06-03

Market just waiting for data.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-02

Will Garena be able to subsidise the finance/commerce long enough for them to turn profitable?

Analyzing Sea Limited's Relentless Growth<blockquote>分析Sea Limited的不懈增长</blockquote>

2021-06-01

Still green.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-31

Seems longer term okays to me.

抱歉，原内容已删除

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CEO bought nearly $5m in stock following massive sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign Inc.首席执行官在大规模抛售后购买了近500万美元的股票，DocuSign股价在早盘交易中上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77953caadaf709eae41dfe416c6a048\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DOCU":"Docusign"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149846873","content_text":"DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading after DocuSign Inc. 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Recent comments just to assuage market fears.","listText":"Already stated they want to run economy hot. Recent comments just to assuage market fears.","text":"Already stated they want to run economy hot. Recent comments just to assuage market fears.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123796283","repostId":"1136966718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165669725,"gmtCreate":1624128119367,"gmtModify":1631893563360,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great to hear.","listText":"Great to hear.","text":"Great to hear.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165669725","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166483850,"gmtCreate":1624022583270,"gmtModify":1631893563364,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shopping still popular.","listText":"Shopping still popular.","text":"Shopping still popular.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166483850","repostId":"1140699063","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166414575,"gmtCreate":1624022462197,"gmtModify":1631893563367,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Depends on Saudi.","listText":"Depends on Saudi.","text":"Depends on Saudi.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166414575","repostId":"1180733695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180733695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624021744,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180733695?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why oil prices may shoot at least 15% higher: Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：为什么油价可能上涨至少15%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180733695","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Supply constraints and a global economyrapidly reboundingfrom the debilitating COVID-19 pandemic lay","content":"<p>Supply constraints and a global economyrapidly reboundingfrom the debilitating COVID-19 pandemic lays the foundation for much higher oil prices, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie argues.</p><p><blockquote>高盛全球大宗商品研究主管杰弗里·柯里(Jeffrey Currie)认为，供应限制和全球经济从日益衰弱的COVID-19大流行中迅速反弹为油价大幅上涨奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> \"Near term our highest conviction long is oil where we still see brent [crude oil] averaging $80/bbl this third quarter with potential spikes well above $80/bbl. Global demand likely rose to 97.0 million barrels a day in recent days from 95.0 million barrels a day just a few weeks ago as the U.S. passes the baton to Europe and emerging markets, where even India is beginning to show improvements,\" Currie said in a new research note to clients on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“短期内，我们对多头最有信心的是石油，我们仍然认为布伦特原油第三季度平均价格为80美元/桶，并有可能飙升至80美元/桶以上。最近几天，全球需求可能从9500万桶/桶升至9700万桶/桶。随着美国将接力棒传递给欧洲和新兴市场，甚至印度也开始出现改善，”柯里周五在给客户的一份新研究报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, oil prices have had a bullish bias of late.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，油价最近出现了看涨倾向。</blockquote></p><p> At more than$73 a barrel currently, brent crude oil prices are trading at levels not seen since the fall of 2018. The price of brent crude isup about 55% year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>布伦特原油价格目前超过每桶73美元，处于2018年秋季以来的最高水平。今年迄今，布伦特原油价格上涨了约55%。</blockquote></p><p> Recent gains in the oil patch have been fueled by indications of strong demand meeting low levels of supply.</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明强劲的需求满足了低水平的供应，推动了石油领域最近的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported this week that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels for the week ended June 11. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that crude oil throughput in China for May rose 4.4% versus last year to hit a record high.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源信息署（EIA）本周报告称，截至6月11日当周，美国原油库存减少740万桶。与此同时，国家统计局报告称，5月份中国原油吞吐量同比增长4.4%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Warns Goldman's Currie, \"With such robust demand growth against an almost inelastic supply curve outside of core OPEC+ (GCC + Russia), the global oil market is facing its deepest deficits since last summer at nearly 3.0 million barrels a day. With refiners quickly responding to small improvements in margins, petroleum product supplies have broadly matched this jump in end-use demand, leaving this deficit almost entirely in crude. We expect further demand increases towards 99.0 million barrels a day by August of which half can be accounted for purely from DM seasonality alone. By then the entire global post-COVID surplus will likely have vanished, by which point we believe elevated crude oil prices could be the catalyst to refocus the market on the reflation trade.\"</p><p><blockquote>高盛的柯里警告说，“在核心欧佩克+（海湾合作委员会+俄罗斯）之外，需求增长如此强劲，而供应曲线几乎没有弹性，全球石油市场正面临自去年夏天以来最严重的赤字，接近300万桶/日。随着炼油商迅速对利润率的小幅改善做出反应，石油产品供应与最终用途需求的增长大体匹配，这一赤字几乎完全来自原油。我们预计到8月份需求将进一步增加至每天9900万桶，其中一半可以完全归因于DM季节性。到那时，整个全球新冠疫情后的盈余可能会消失，届时我们认为原油价格上涨可能会成为市场重新关注通货再膨胀交易的催化剂。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why oil prices may shoot at least 15% higher: Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：为什么油价可能上涨至少15%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy oil prices may shoot at least 15% higher: Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛：为什么油价可能上涨至少15%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 21:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Supply constraints and a global economyrapidly reboundingfrom the debilitating COVID-19 pandemic lays the foundation for much higher oil prices, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie argues.</p><p><blockquote>高盛全球大宗商品研究主管杰弗里·柯里(Jeffrey Currie)认为，供应限制和全球经济从日益衰弱的COVID-19大流行中迅速反弹为油价大幅上涨奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> \"Near term our highest conviction long is oil where we still see brent [crude oil] averaging $80/bbl this third quarter with potential spikes well above $80/bbl. Global demand likely rose to 97.0 million barrels a day in recent days from 95.0 million barrels a day just a few weeks ago as the U.S. passes the baton to Europe and emerging markets, where even India is beginning to show improvements,\" Currie said in a new research note to clients on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“短期内，我们对多头最有信心的是石油，我们仍然认为布伦特原油第三季度平均价格为80美元/桶，并有可能飙升至80美元/桶以上。最近几天，全球需求可能从9500万桶/桶升至9700万桶/桶。随着美国将接力棒传递给欧洲和新兴市场，甚至印度也开始出现改善，”柯里周五在给客户的一份新研究报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, oil prices have had a bullish bias of late.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，油价最近出现了看涨倾向。</blockquote></p><p> At more than$73 a barrel currently, brent crude oil prices are trading at levels not seen since the fall of 2018. The price of brent crude isup about 55% year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>布伦特原油价格目前超过每桶73美元，处于2018年秋季以来的最高水平。今年迄今，布伦特原油价格上涨了约55%。</blockquote></p><p> Recent gains in the oil patch have been fueled by indications of strong demand meeting low levels of supply.</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明强劲的需求满足了低水平的供应，推动了石油领域最近的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported this week that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels for the week ended June 11. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that crude oil throughput in China for May rose 4.4% versus last year to hit a record high.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源信息署（EIA）本周报告称，截至6月11日当周，美国原油库存减少740万桶。与此同时，国家统计局报告称，5月份中国原油吞吐量同比增长4.4%，创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Warns Goldman's Currie, \"With such robust demand growth against an almost inelastic supply curve outside of core OPEC+ (GCC + Russia), the global oil market is facing its deepest deficits since last summer at nearly 3.0 million barrels a day. With refiners quickly responding to small improvements in margins, petroleum product supplies have broadly matched this jump in end-use demand, leaving this deficit almost entirely in crude. We expect further demand increases towards 99.0 million barrels a day by August of which half can be accounted for purely from DM seasonality alone. By then the entire global post-COVID surplus will likely have vanished, by which point we believe elevated crude oil prices could be the catalyst to refocus the market on the reflation trade.\"</p><p><blockquote>高盛的柯里警告说，“在核心欧佩克+（海湾合作委员会+俄罗斯）之外，需求增长如此强劲，而供应曲线几乎没有弹性，全球石油市场正面临自去年夏天以来最严重的赤字，接近300万桶/日。随着炼油商迅速对利润率的小幅改善做出反应，石油产品供应与最终用途需求的增长大体匹配，这一赤字几乎完全来自原油。我们预计到8月份需求将进一步增加至每天9900万桶，其中一半可以完全归因于DM季节性。到那时，整个全球新冠疫情后的盈余可能会消失，届时我们认为原油价格上涨可能会成为市场重新关注通货再膨胀交易的催化剂。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-oil-prices-may-shoot-at-least-15-higher-goldman-sachs-130028408.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-oil-prices-may-shoot-at-least-15-higher-goldman-sachs-130028408.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180733695","content_text":"Supply constraints and a global economyrapidly reboundingfrom the debilitating COVID-19 pandemic lays the foundation for much higher oil prices, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie argues.\n\"Near term our highest conviction long is oil where we still see brent [crude oil] averaging $80/bbl this third quarter with potential spikes well above $80/bbl. Global demand likely rose to 97.0 million barrels a day in recent days from 95.0 million barrels a day just a few weeks ago as the U.S. passes the baton to Europe and emerging markets, where even India is beginning to show improvements,\" Currie said in a new research note to clients on Friday.\nTo be sure, oil prices have had a bullish bias of late.\nAt more than$73 a barrel currently, brent crude oil prices are trading at levels not seen since the fall of 2018. The price of brent crude isup about 55% year-to-date.\nRecent gains in the oil patch have been fueled by indications of strong demand meeting low levels of supply.\nThe Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported this week that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.4 million barrels for the week ended June 11. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that crude oil throughput in China for May rose 4.4% versus last year to hit a record high.\nWarns Goldman's Currie, \"With such robust demand growth against an almost inelastic supply curve outside of core OPEC+ (GCC + Russia), the global oil market is facing its deepest deficits since last summer at nearly 3.0 million barrels a day. With refiners quickly responding to small improvements in margins, petroleum product supplies have broadly matched this jump in end-use demand, leaving this deficit almost entirely in crude. We expect further demand increases towards 99.0 million barrels a day by August of which half can be accounted for purely from DM seasonality alone. By then the entire global post-COVID surplus will likely have vanished, by which point we believe elevated crude oil prices could be the catalyst to refocus the market on the reflation trade.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160187704,"gmtCreate":1623775080508,"gmtModify":1631893563371,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting...","listText":"Interesting...","text":"Interesting...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160187704","repostId":"1150591447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185404588,"gmtCreate":1623664499544,"gmtModify":1631893563374,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Exciting!","listText":"Exciting!","text":"Exciting!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185404588","repostId":"1146430910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182882796,"gmtCreate":1623562992715,"gmtModify":1631893563379,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really muted.","listText":"Really muted.","text":"Really muted.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182882796","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186244410,"gmtCreate":1623505508130,"gmtModify":1634032284771,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186244410","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183816819,"gmtCreate":1623320834831,"gmtModify":1634034618514,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still super bullish...","listText":"Still super bullish...","text":"Still super bullish...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183816819","repostId":"2142938292","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114110560,"gmtCreate":1623056502350,"gmtModify":1634095790772,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Exciting times.","listText":"Exciting times.","text":"Exciting times.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114110560","repostId":"1184606456","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115845027,"gmtCreate":1622978175869,"gmtModify":1634096443830,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Might pop.","listText":"Might pop.","text":"Might pop.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115845027","repostId":"1156802172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116673731,"gmtCreate":1622799571323,"gmtModify":1634097894740,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Definitely won't be like last decade.","listText":"Definitely won't be like last decade.","text":"Definitely won't be like last decade.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116673731","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111759256,"gmtCreate":1622702298175,"gmtModify":1634098981004,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market just waiting for data.","listText":"Market just waiting for data.","text":"Market just waiting for data.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111759256","repostId":"1136885015","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113438170,"gmtCreate":1622632100190,"gmtModify":1634099764383,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will Garena be able to subsidise the finance/commerce long enough for them to turn profitable?","listText":"Will Garena be able to subsidise the finance/commerce long enough for them to turn profitable?","text":"Will Garena be able to subsidise the finance/commerce long enough for them to turn profitable?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113438170","repostId":"1100705667","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100705667","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622626441,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100705667?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 17:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Analyzing Sea Limited's Relentless Growth<blockquote>分析Sea Limited的不懈增长</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100705667","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article focuses on the growth engine that enables Sea Group. I provide a high-level ov","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article focuses on the growth engine that enables Sea Group. I provide a high-level overview and dive deeper into each operating segment.</li>  <li>The company has a significant advantage through segments that cross-pollinate each other with cash. Garena is currently funding the growth of Shopee and SeaMoney. This is a key moat contributor.</li>  <li>Shopee continues to be the key top-line driver with substantial Gross Merchandise Value growth forecasted in Southeast Asia. Consequently, increasing take rates will likely lead to even higher revenue growth.</li>  <li>Looking at overall online spending, the six largest Southeast Asian countries are forecasted to grow from $100B GMV in 2020 to $300B GMV in 2025. Sea stands to benefit across the board.</li>  <li>At an FY2023 EV/S of ~8.3x, Sea Group is fairly priced for an investment. It is a long-term conviction \"buy and hold\" for me.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27123526e3031d4a551f336a9189f19\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\"><span>Photo by Wachiwit/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文重点介绍Sea Group的增长引擎。我提供了一个高层次的概述，并深入探讨了每个运营部门。</li><li>该公司通过与现金交叉授粉的细分市场拥有显着优势。Garena目前正在为Shopee和SeaMoney的发展提供资金。这是护城河的关键贡献者。</li><li>Shopee仍然是主要的营收驱动力，预计东南亚的商品总价值将大幅增长。因此，提高接受率可能会带来更高的收入增长。</li><li>从整体在线支出来看，六个最大的东南亚国家预计将从2020年的1000亿美元GMV增长到2025年的3000亿美元GMV。Sea将全面受益。</li><li>Sea Group 2023财年的EV/S约为8.3倍，投资定价合理。对我来说，“买入并持有”是一个长期的信念。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Wachiwit/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Sea Group (NYSE:SE) is still running in hyper-growth mode (&gt;100% YoY last quarter and on a last-twelve-month basis).</p><p><blockquote>Sea Group（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）仍处于高速增长模式（上季度和过去12个月同比增长&gt;100%）。</blockquote></p><p> It's been over a year since I first wrote about Sea on Seeking Alpha. The company's rise has been staggering and the business has continued to surpass most expectations, with the stock returning over 300% in the last 12 months. I'd like to use this article as an opportunity to dive into what makes such growth at a ~$120B market cap possible and put forward my opinion on why the company is positioned to win more in the coming years. While a lot of alpha has been captured in the past, I still expect substantial broad index outperformance going forward over the long term. I'm long SE.</p><p><blockquote>距离我第一次在Seeking Alpha上撰写有关Sea的文章已经过去一年多了。该公司的涨幅惊人，业务继续超出大多数人的预期，该股在过去12个月内回报率超过300%。我想以这篇文章为机会，深入探讨是什么使市值达到约120B美元的增长成为可能，并就该公司为何能够在未来几年赢得更多胜利提出我的看法。虽然过去已经捕获了很多阿尔法，但我仍然预计从长远来看，广泛指数将大幅跑赢大盘。我是龙瑟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a quick recap of what the company constitutes. Sea Group is a Singapore-based consumer internet company that has three major divisions: Digital Entertainment, E-Commerce, and Digital Financial Services. In layman's terms, think of it as a smaller and younger version of Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) with a Southeast Asia focus.</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司构成的快速回顾。Sea Group是一家总部位于新加坡的消费互联网公司，拥有三大部门：数字娱乐、电子商务和数字金融服务。通俗地说，可以将其视为专注于东南亚的腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）的更小、更年轻版本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd938ae2a667d8bf6c2c8b8094ff94ab\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Author, Logos from Sea Group Media Resources</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，徽标来自Sea Group媒体资源</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Garena</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加雷纳</b></blockquote></p><p> Their Digital Entertainment arm known as \"Garena\" began as a third party game licensor and operator for popular online games (mostly by Tencent) for the South East Asia region. It consequently grew into an independent mobile game developer, and they now operate one of the most widely played mobile games on the planet, Free Fire, which has about 650 million quarterly active users worldwide. Free Fire is a battle-royale style multiplayer game, optimized to run smoothly on mobile phones with lower computing power specifications<i>.</i>The game generates revenue primarily from in-app purchases. It also features social media aspects, and more recently, an e-sports ecosystem built around it to host global tournaments streamed across the world. The cohesive gaming, social media, and entertainment aspects have led it to be highly engaging and relatively sticky with low churn as far as mobile games go.</p><p><blockquote>他们的数字娱乐部门“Garena”最初是东南亚地区流行在线游戏（主要是腾讯控股）的第三方游戏许可方和运营商。因此，它成长为一家独立的手机游戏开发商，他们现在运营着地球上玩得最广泛的手机游戏之一Free Fire，该游戏在全球拥有约6.5亿季度活跃用户。Free Fire是一款大逃杀风格的多人游戏，经过优化可以在较低计算能力规格的手机上流畅运行<i>.</i>该游戏的收入主要来自应用内购买。它还具有社交媒体方面的功能，最近，围绕它建立了一个电子竞技生态系统，以举办全球锦标赛。就手机游戏而言，游戏、社交媒体和娱乐方面的凝聚力使其具有高度吸引力和相对粘性，流失率较低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopee</b></p><p><blockquote><b>虾皮</b></blockquote></p><p> Shopee is the leading e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia + Taiwan, spanning about 7 countries with a population of over 600 million people. They also have a large presence in Latin America, including Mexico and Brazil (add another 300 million population). The app facilitated ~$12.6B in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) last quarter. Almost all the markets it operates in features rising middle classes, rapid digital consumerization, and strong GDP growth rates. These geographies have also been historically underpenetrated on the digital front, and are currently experiencing consumer internet adoption at a higher rate than their developed country counterparts. The pandemic catalyzed the seemingly inevitable trend of e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee是东南亚+台湾领先的电商平台，横跨约7个国家，人口超过6亿人。他们在拉丁美洲也有很大的影响力，包括墨西哥和巴西（再增加3亿人口）。该应用程序上季度的商品总价值(GMV)约为$12.6 B。它运营的几乎所有市场都以中产阶级不断壮大、快速的数字消费化和强劲的GDP增长率为特色。这些地区在数字领域的渗透率在历史上也很低，目前消费者互联网的采用率高于发达国家。疫情催化了电子商务采用这一看似不可避免的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SeaMoney</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SeaMoney</b></blockquote></p><p> This is Sea Group's \"Digital Financial Services\" (Fintech) arm. SeaMoney includes a digital wallet, payments processing, credit offerings, and other financial services. The segment had over 26 million quarterly paying users with over $3.4B in total payment volume facilitated last quarter. It is Sea Group's youngest division but arguably presents the largest opportunity for the company given that most of the Southeast Asian population has historically been underbanked. Theoretically, investments, loans, credit, debit, and insurance are all potential pieces that can weave together under a unified consumer financial services ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这是Sea Group的“数字金融服务”（Fintech）部门。SeaMoney包括数字钱包、支付处理、信贷产品和其他金融服务。该细分市场的季度付费用户超过2600万，上季度的总支付量超过$3.4 B。这是Sea Group最年轻的部门，但鉴于大多数东南亚人口历来银行服务不足，可以说为该公司提供了最大的机会。从理论上讲，投资、贷款、信贷、借记和保险都是可以在统一的消费金融服务生态系统下编织在一起的潜在部分。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To summarize, Sea Group is a consumer internet titan with an ecosystem of high growth business divisions that are in total, likely touching over a billion people worldwide. On an LTM basis, the company's combined revenue grew 113.7% YoY. Sea is serving emerging markets that are experiencing internet adoption at accelerated rates, and is ballooning into a Tencent-like internet beast (consequently, they're Tencent-backed as well). A key factor in an investment consideration, is, of course, growth going forward. In the next few sections, I attempt to deconstruct growth using readily available-reported metrics and alternative data to make inferences on prospects.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Sea Group是一家消费互联网巨头，拥有一个由高增长业务部门组成的生态系统，这些业务部门总共可能覆盖全球超过10亿人。按LTM计算，公司总收入同比增长113.7%。Sea正在为互联网加速普及的新兴市场提供服务，并正在迅速成长为腾讯控股式的互联网野兽（因此，它们也得到了腾讯控股的支持）。当然，投资考虑的一个关键因素是未来的增长。在接下来的几节中，我试图使用现成的报告指标和替代数据来解构增长，以对前景做出推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Group Growth Through Cross-Pollination</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过异花授粉的群体生长</b></blockquote></p><p> Big growth requires cash. Chasing an underpenetrated e-commerce opportunity spanning 100s of millions of consumers requires a lot of cash. Sea has executed well in raising capital and putting it to work for growth, often playing its cards close to the chest pre-2020. The secret sauce for effective cash utilization, however, lies in the company's three-headed ecosystem structure. Shopee's growth would not be possible without the preceding success of Garena. And it's fair to say that SeaMoney's odds of success are substantially better because of Shopee's proliferation. The following diagram explains this.</p><p><blockquote>大增长需要现金。追逐覆盖数亿消费者的渗透不足的电子商务机会需要大量现金。Sea在筹集资金并将其用于增长方面表现出色，在2020年之前经常小心翼翼地出牌。然而，有效利用现金的秘诀在于公司的三头生态系统结构。如果没有Garena之前的成功，Shopee的增长是不可能的。公平地说，由于Shopee的激增，SeaMoney的成功几率要高得多。下图解释了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6629de9aa49e0ca3375f92306d80c289\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\"><span>Source: Author, Logos from Sea Group Media Resources</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，徽标来自Sea Group媒体资源</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A popular concept in venture capital is the \"Valley of Death\". A freshly funded startup enterprise tends to burn cash to invest in product development, overhead, sales, etc. It continues to burn cash until it finds product-market fit, and revenues eventually grow large enough to make the system work and turn the company cash flow generative. Businesses are vulnerable from a financial standpoint during the cash burn and have to beat the clock as their limited cash pours out rapidly until sales balance out expenditure. Many seed-stage startups just die due to this. Since venture capital proliferated in the last two decades and access to private funding has supplied enormous cash ammunition to growth businesses post product-market fit, the burn phase has extended to the public markets as well. If a public company's strategy doesn't work, it tends to downsize, get mildly profitable at modest growth rates, and turn into an acquisition target. Alternatively, it may collect in the vast land of unfulfilled public tech stocks. That's the anatomy of a modern tech company in a nutshell.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资中一个流行的概念是“死亡谷”。一个新融资的创业企业倾向于烧钱投资于产品开发、管理费用、销售等。它继续烧钱，直到找到适合产品市场的产品，收入最终增长到足以使系统发挥作用并使公司产生现金流。从财务角度来看，企业在烧钱期间很脆弱，必须争分夺秒，因为有限的现金迅速流出，直到销售额平衡支出。许多种子期创业公司因此而夭折。由于风险投资在过去二十年中激增，获得私人资金为产品市场契合后的成长型企业提供了巨大的现金弹药，燃烧阶段也延伸到了公开市场。如果一家上市公司的战略不起作用，它往往会缩小规模，以适度的增长率获得适度的利润，并成为收购目标。或者，它可能会聚集在广阔的未履行的公共科技股中。简而言之，这就是现代科技公司的剖析。</blockquote></p><p> Expanding upon this concept, Sea Group isn't one company. It's a lot like three companies. As of 2021, Garena is well out of the cash flow valley of death, Shopee is burning big cash but is seemingly at a trough, and SeaMoney is just getting started. Proceeds from mature segments like Garena are used to pollinate growth in segments that have lower market penetration and longer growth runways (like Shopee &amp; SeaMoney).<b>In totality, Sea Group is an ecosystem that continues to evolve with the next big company still embedded within, still in the making, all the time.</b>What's impressive is that Shopee's market potential is larger than Garena's, and SeaMoney has an even larger theoretical market though any success might be early to call. The access to cash makes Sea Group's growth outright suffocating for competitors because individual non-ecosystems simply cannot compete on pricing, marketing budgets, and moderate economies of scale in the case of e-commerce. That's not to take away from Sea's excellent product and sales execution anyway. The following sections break down the three sub-companies and draw inferences from their growth metrics.</p><p><blockquote>扩展这一概念，Sea Group并不是一家公司。很像三家公司。截至2021年，Garena已经走出了现金流死亡谷，Shopee正在烧钱，但似乎正处于低谷，而SeaMoney才刚刚起步。Garena等成熟细分市场的收益用于促进市场渗透率较低、增长跑道较长的细分市场（如Shopee和SeaMoney）的增长。<b>总的来说，Sea Group是一个不断发展的生态系统，下一个大公司仍然嵌入其中，仍在形成中。</b>令人印象深刻的是，Shopee的市场潜力比Garena更大，而SeaMoney的理论市场甚至更大，尽管看涨期权可能还为时过早。获得现金使得Sea Group的增长对竞争对手来说完全令人窒息，因为在电子商务的情况下，单个非生态系统根本无法在定价、营销预算和适度规模经济方面竞争。无论如何，这并不能削弱Sea出色的产品和销售执行力。以下部分对这三家子公司进行了细分，并从其增长指标中得出结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Garena (Digital Entertainment)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Garena（数字娱乐）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d10df5e5cd40c3f8cdb6fa3565fb1e\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"264\"><span>Source: Author,Data from Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The charts above pertain to the Digital Entertainment segment, with the marked lines displaying YoY (Year-over-Year), and QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter) percentage growth. Gross Bookings are the key top-line metric as they represent revenues that are yet to be recognized on the GAAP front. Due to the nature of in-app purchases and other payments made on apps like Free Fire etc., there's a fairly substantial difference between the two. Previously reported as Adjusted Revenues, Gross Bookings have held strong and have recently recorded 10% QoQ growth for the first quarter even though the pandemic has been easing off with a reopening trend. Q1-Q3 2020 saw rapid growth, while the last few quarters have tapered down to levels that are seemingly more muted. This should be expected to continue.</p><p><blockquote>上面的图表与数字娱乐领域相关，标记线显示同比（同比）和环比（环比）百分比增长。总预订量是关键的营收指标，因为它们代表了尚未在公认会计准则方面确认的收入。由于应用内购买和在Free Fire等应用上进行的其他支付的性质。，两者之间有相当大的区别。尽管疫情随着重新开放的趋势而有所缓解，但之前报告的调整后收入总额一直保持强劲，最近第一季度环比增长了10%。2020年第一季度至第三季度增长迅速，而过去几个季度已逐渐放缓至看似更加温和的水平。这种情况应该会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is worth mentioning how Free Fire has stuck around instead of temporarily leading top mobile gaming charts like most other games. In the gaming world, you have temporarily viral games, and then you have games that have a dedicated following across millions of users that evolve and provide engagement over sustained periods of time. The latter includes Call of Duty, PUBG, League of Legends, and Fortnite to name a few. Ultimately, the revenues of these games are predictable and sticky enough. It appears as though Free Fire has joined this group.</p><p><blockquote>值得一提的是，Free Fire并没有像大多数其他游戏一样暂时领先手机游戏排行榜。在游戏世界中，你有暂时的病毒式游戏，然后你有拥有数百万用户忠实追随者的游戏，这些游戏在持续的时间内不断发展并提供参与。后者包括《使命看涨期权》、《PUBG》、《英雄联盟》和《堡垒之夜》等等。最终，这些游戏的收入是可预测的，并且具有足够的粘性。似乎自由之火已经加入了这个团体。</blockquote></p><p> The way Free Fire was built from the ground up is relatively contrarian. It's optimized to work on cheaper Android-powered smartphones instead of consoles and dedicated devices that are often seen as staple purchases for many gamers in developed countries. Getting a Switch, Xbox, or PC for most people in emerging markets is a serious expense. With Free Fire, you can get away with what you already have in India, Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia. All you need is a smartphone and you're getting bang for your buck gaming and entertainment. This aspect has made it a perfect emerging market game.<b>While most of the industry was focused on higher ticket experiences, Garena's contrarian outlook on making a game specifically for ignored categories of mobile players has helped it succeed.</b></p><p><blockquote>Free Fire从头开始构建的方式相对来说是逆向的。它经过优化，可以在更便宜的Android智能手机上运行，而不是游戏机和专用设备，这些设备通常被视为发达国家许多游戏玩家的主要购买。对于新兴市场的大多数人来说，购买Switch、Xbox或PC是一笔不小的开支。有了Free Fire，你可以摆脱你在印度、巴西、墨西哥和印度尼西亚已经拥有的东西。你所需要的只是一部智能手机，你的游戏和娱乐就会物有所值。这方面使它成为一个完美的新兴市场游戏。<b>虽然大多数行业都专注于更高的门票体验，但Garena在专门为被忽视的移动玩家类别制作游戏方面的逆向观点帮助它取得了成功。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a46c2a9d96ac17e0ad6c91fe7eb13f24\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"265\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21c5e5ecd14f6544b380b4c99aa42150\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"265\"><span>Source: Author, Data from Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite going after large populations of price-sensitive emerging market gamers, we see a surprising number of users actually paying for in-app purchases every quarter. QPU growth has outpaced QAU growth, with a larger proportion of the overall user mix trending towards paying users over time (11.4%, 12.0%, and 12.3% respectively for the last three quarters). This is key for the division's bookings and revenues. About a year ago, I expressed concern regarding the over-reliance on Free Fire as a sustainable cash source. I questioned whether it was truly here to stay and won't be replaced by the next hot game. This concern was abated when I learned that the e-sports events were amassing millions of viewers, the game continued to evolve with seasons and geography-specific features, and the social media angle that resulted in network effects across players.<b>It's impressive enough for a game to go to #1, but to stay in the top charts for 2-years running requires some excellent execution.</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管追求大量对价格敏感的新兴市场游戏玩家，但我们看到每个季度实际为应用内购买付费的用户数量惊人。QPU的增长超过了QAU的增长，随着时间的推移，整体用户组合中更大比例倾向于付费用户（过去三个季度分别为11.4%、12.0%和12.3%）。这是该部门预订和收入的关键。大约一年前，我对过度依赖Free Fire作为可持续现金来源表示担忧。我质疑它是否真的会留在这里，不会被下一场热门比赛取代。当我了解到电子竞技赛事聚集了数百万观众，游戏随着季节和地理特定的特征而继续发展，以及社交媒体角度导致了玩家之间的网络效应时，这种担忧就减轻了。<b>对于一款游戏来说，排名第一已经足够令人印象深刻了，但要连续两年保持在榜首需要一些出色的执行力。</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a table of Play Store rankings for the \"Games: Action\" category. I've included the Play Store since the majority of emerging market users are on Android as opposed to iOS.</p><p><blockquote>这是“游戏：动作”类别的Play Store排名表。我把Play Store包括在内，因为大多数新兴市场用户都在Android上，而不是iOS。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>India</b></td>    <td><b>Indonesia</b></td>    <td><b>Pakistan</b></td>    <td><b>Brazil</b></td>    <td><b>Nigeria</b></td>    <td><b>Bangladesh</b></td>    <td><b>Mexico</b></td>    <td><b>Philippines</b></td>    <td><b>Vietnam</b></td>    <td><b>Thailand</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Downloads: Gaming</b></td>    <td>10</td>    <td>17</td>    <td>18</td>    <td>8</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>3</td>    <td>11</td>    <td>135</td>    <td>11</td>    <td>10</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Downloads: Gaming Action</b></td>    <td>2</td>    <td>4</td>    <td>3</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>3</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>2</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Grossing: Gaming</b></td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>8</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>20</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Grossing: Gaming Action</b></td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>4</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: App Annie, As of 28th May 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>印度</b></td><td><b>印度尼西亚</b></td><td><b>巴基斯坦</b></td><td><b>巴西</b></td><td><b>尼日利亚</b></td><td><b>孟加拉国</b></td><td><b>墨西哥</b></td><td><b>菲律宾</b></td><td><b>越南</b></td><td><b>泰国</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>下载：游戏</b></td><td>10</td><td>17</td><td>18</td><td>8</td><td>7</td><td>3</td><td>11</td><td>135</td><td>11</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td><b>下载：游戏动作</b></td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>3</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>27</td><td>2</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td><b>票房：游戏</b></td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>8</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>20</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td><b>票房：游戏动作</b></td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr></tbody></table><i>资料来源：App Annie，截至2021年5月28日</i></blockquote></p><p> The above charts are compiled from some of the most populated emerging market countries I could find, along with my free App Annie account. While new downloads might have reduced over the last two quarters from the pandemic boost last year, the numbers are still impressive and Free Fire remains the top-grossing game amongst most of the geographies above. Importantly, it is the consistency of these rankings over time.</p><p><blockquote>上面的图表是根据我能找到的一些人口最多的新兴市场国家以及我的免费App Annie帐户汇编而成的。虽然过去两个季度的新下载量可能比去年疫情的增长有所下降，但这些数字仍然令人印象深刻，Free Fire仍然是上述大多数地区票房最高的游戏。重要的是，随着时间的推移，这些排名的一致性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Going by the growth metrics, long-term engagement is likely to be sustained, but there should be a sequential slowdown in new user adds and incremental gross bookings in the coming months.</b>This is consistent with what the management expects and reasonable given the reopening and saturation of the game across the global market. On the bright side, Digital Entertainment recorded an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 64% last quarter that should scale proportionately with gross bookings. After building out the game, there isn't too much in terms of costs to take away from the bottom line. Large sales and marketing expenditure isn't quite needed now that the game has global network effects. It's really about back-end, maintenance, and continued development work to keep evolving the already successful game and ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote><b>从增长指标来看，长期参与度可能会持续下去，但未来几个月新用户增加和总预订量增量应该会连续放缓。</b>这与管理层的预期一致，考虑到游戏在全球市场的重新开放和饱和，这是合理的。好的一面是，数字娱乐上季度调整后的EBITDA利润率为64%，应该与总预订量成比例增长。在构建完游戏之后，就成本而言，没有太多可以从底线中扣除的。既然游戏具有全球网络效应，就不太需要大量的销售和营销支出了。这实际上是关于后端、维护和持续的开发工作，以不断发展已经成功的游戏和生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> Shopee (E-Commerce)</p><p><blockquote>Shopee（电子商务）</blockquote></p><p> The following two charts present gross orders and gross merchandise value (GMV) for the e-commerce division.</p><p><blockquote>以下两张图表显示了电子商务部门的总订单和商品总值(GMV)。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb09b8563ac1df1a5d8e7458b30c3054\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/628c3b271ee17e9c430045d0f686f75c\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"264\"><span>Source: Author, Data from Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The trends are similar across both charts. Q2 2020 saw acceleration due to the pandemic, Q4 2020 saw a seasonal high, and Q1 2021 saw QoQ deceleration going out of the holiday season across most geographies. As Gross Orders have outpaced GMV, we can conclude that more people are ordering cheaper items on the platform on average. If we consider seasonality, the 5-6% QoQ growth in Q1 2021 isn't particularly concerning and we'll likely see a sequential pickup in the next quarter. It's fair to expect the reopening trend to put some downward pressure on growth but the long term feasibility of the platform has likely cemented itself for consumers. The convenience and product pricing on e-commerce is simply hard to compete with for brick &amp; mortar, and we're not going back to pre-pandemic levels of online retail again. The following earnings release excerpt provides some colour on e-commerce GAAP Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>两张图表的趋势相似。由于疫情，Q2 2020年出现了加速，2020年第四季度出现了季节性高点，Q1 2021年大多数地区在假期结束后出现了环比减速。由于总订单量已经超过了GMV，我们可以得出结论，平均而言，更多的人在平台上订购更便宜的商品。如果我们考虑季节性，2021年第一季度5-6%的环比增长并不是特别令人担忧，我们可能会在下个季度看到环比回升。预计重新开放趋势将给增长带来一些下行压力是公平的，但该平台的长期可行性可能已经巩固了消费者的地位。电子商务的便利性和产品定价很难与实体店竞争，我们不会再回到大流行前的在线零售水平。以下收益发布摘录提供了有关电子商务GAAP收入的一些信息。</blockquote></p><p>   GAAP revenue was US$922.3 million, up 250.4% year-on-year.    GAAP revenue included US$715.9 million of GAAP marketplace revenue, up 285.0% year-on-year, and US$206.4 million of GAAP product revenue, up 167.1% year-on-year.    <i>Source:Q1 2021 Earnings Press Release</i>  Comparing the above information to the GMV chart, we can infer that<b>Sales have substantially outpaced GMV growth. This indicates a very deliberate move by the company to increase their take rates in dominant geographies.</b>Take rates are a function of the GMV and represent the proportion of the total GMV that makes it to revenues. As the standard consumer internet company goes, you expand and acquire customers at all costs, then you increase prices and get profitable after capturing a market and habituating consumers to your platform. Overall, the actions have also decreased Adjusted EBITDA losses substantially and that allows Sea to play the balancing cash flow act on demand.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP营收为9.223亿美元，同比增长250.4%。GAAP收入包括GAAP市场收入7.159亿美元，同比增长285.0%，GAAP产品收入2.064亿美元，同比增长167.1%。<i>资料来源：2021年第一季度收益新闻稿</i>将上述信息与GMV图表进行对比，我们可以推断<b>销售额大大超过了GMV的增长。这表明该公司有意提高其在主要地区的接受率。</b>采用率是GMV的函数，代表总GMV占收入的比例。就像标准的消费互联网公司一样，你不惜一切代价扩大和获取客户，然后在占领市场并让消费者习惯你的平台后提高价格并盈利。总体而言，这些行动还大幅减少了调整后的EBITDA损失，这使得Sea能够根据需要实施平衡现金流法案。</blockquote></p><p>   Both in Southeast Asia and in Taiwan, Shopee ranked first in the Shopping category by average monthly active users and total time spent in-app on Android for the first quarter of 2021, according to App Annie.    In Indonesia, where Shopee further accelerated its year-on-year growth in gross orders, it continued to rank first by average monthly active users and total time spent in app on Android in the Shopping category for the first quarter of 2021, according to App Annie.    <i>Source:Q1 2021 Earnings Press Release</i>  From a high-level view, Southeast Asia &amp; Taiwan seem pretty much covered. However, within this region, Indonesia still presents the fiercest battleground for Shopee as it competes against the SoftBank-backed Tokopedia. The following charts show monthly website visits for both companies.</p><p><blockquote>根据App Annie的数据，2021年第一季度，在东南亚和台湾，Shopee在Android上的平均月活跃用户和应用内总时间在购物类别中排名第一。根据App Annie的数据，在印度尼西亚，Shopee的总订单量同比增长进一步加快，2021年第一季度，其在购物类别中的平均月活跃用户和Android应用程序上花费的总时间继续排名第一。<i>资料来源：2021年第一季度收益新闻稿</i>从高层次的角度来看，东南亚和台湾似乎被覆盖了。然而，在该地区，印度尼西亚仍然是Shopee最激烈的战场，因为它与软银支持的Tokopedia竞争。下图显示了两家公司每月的网站访问量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49440f62634a1c3ccc9ebfdd0c7a33ba\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source:Southeast Asia Map of eCommerce, iPrice Group</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：东南亚电子商务地图，iPrice Group</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Monthly web visits from the iPrice Group show that Tokopedia saw more traffic (not necessarily sales) during the last quarter while it was behind during the last few. However, on mobile (App Store &amp; Android), Shopee is the undisputed leader in the Shopping category. This is reassuring since mobile e-commerce has been outpacing total e-commerce as a category in almost every geography across every platform.</p><p><blockquote>iPrice Group的每月网络访问量显示，Tokopedia在上个季度的流量（不一定是销售额）更多，而在过去几个季度则落后。然而，在移动（App Store&amp;Android）上，Shopee是购物类无可争议的领导者。这令人放心，因为在几乎每个平台的每个地区，移动电子商务作为一个类别已经超过了总电子商务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Indonesia Mobile Rankings</b></td>    <td><b>Q1 20</b></td>    <td><b>Q2 20</b></td>    <td><b>Q3 20</b></td>    <td><b>Q4 20</b></td>    <td><b>Q1 21</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Shopee App Store</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Shopee PlayStore</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Tokopedia App Store</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>2</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Tokopedia PlayStore</td>    <td>3</td>    <td>3</td>    <td>4</td>    <td>4</td>    <td>4</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Southeast Asia Map of eCommerce, iPrice Group</i></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>印度尼西亚移动排名</b></td><td><b>Q1 20</b></td><td><b>Q2 20</b></td><td><b>Q3 20</b></td><td><b>Q4 20</b></td><td><b>Q1 21</b></td></tr><tr><td>Shopee应用商店</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Shopee PlayStore</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Tokopedia应用商店</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Tokopedia PlayStore</td><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>4</td><td>4</td><td>4</td></tr></tbody></table><i>资料来源：东南亚电子商务地图，iPrice Group</i></blockquote></p><p> I would conclude that Tokopedia is a key competitor that needs to be watched closely and will prevent Shopee from exercising its take rates more liberally in the country. Furthermore, Indonesia represents the largest Southeast Asian market for e-commerce.<b>Cross-pollination isn't just occurring across Sea's segments but also across Shopee's different e-commerce geographies.</b>Profits from Shopee Thailand, for example, may be used to bring forth more competitive product pricing to Shopee Indonesia. Tokopedia is distinctly e-Commerce and limited to Indonesia, and likely doesn't have these internal cash generative advantages.</p><p><blockquote>我的结论是，Tokopedia是一个需要密切关注的主要竞争对手，并将阻止Shopee在该国更自由地行使其接受率。此外，印度尼西亚是东南亚最大的电子商务市场。<b>异花授粉不仅发生在Sea的各个细分市场，还发生在Shopee的不同电子商务地区。</b>例如，Shopee泰国的利润可用于为Shopee印度尼西亚带来更具竞争力的产品定价。Tokopedia显然是电子商务，仅限于印度尼西亚，可能不具备这些内部现金生成优势。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a look at what's happening across the globe in Latin America. Shopee is growing like wildfire in Mexico and Brazil. The charts below represent recent data as of late May.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看全球拉丁美洲正在发生什么。Shopee在墨西哥和巴西像野火一样增长。下图代表了截至五月下旬的最新数据。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59030ed9023a1f492a597a9af00d646\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: App Annie, Rankings by Country in the \"Shopping\" category</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：App Annie，“购物”类别按国家排名</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Brazil and Mexico together make up for a population of ~330 million. The other e-commerce star in the category, MercadoLibre (MELI) ranks behind Shopee on Android for both Brazil and Mexico. The rankings depend on downloads instead of engagement, and MercadoLibre is often pegged to have a majority market share in Latin America as a whole (dominates Argentina). However, what the above alternative data above tell us is that Shopee has momentum in user share acquisition on an absolute basis. One can infer that more people are downloading Shopee in Mexico and Brazil as of late May compared to MercadoLibre at a faster rate. Higher downloads often translate to higher relatively higher market share gains.</p><p><blockquote>巴西和墨西哥总共约有3.3亿人口。该类别中的另一位电子商务明星MercadoLibre(MELI)在巴西和墨西哥的Android上排名均落后于Shopee。排名取决于下载量而不是参与度，MercadoLibre通常被认为在整个拉丁美洲拥有大部分市场份额（主导阿根廷）。然而，上述替代数据告诉我们的是，Shopee在绝对基础上拥有用户份额获取的势头。人们可以推断，与MercadoLibre相比，截至5月底，墨西哥和巴西有更多人下载Shopee，速度更快。更高的下载量通常会转化为更高的相对较高的市场份额收益。</blockquote></p><p> Add all the Shopee geographies together and they represent a billion people and a combined GDP of $6.5T according to my calculations (<i>Source for GDP:Worldometer</i>). I reckon this is where to start when drawing up true long-term potential before narrowing down further.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的计算，将所有Shopee地理位置加在一起，它们代表了10亿人口和6.5 T美元的GDP（<i>GDP来源：Worldometer</i>).我认为，在进一步缩小范围之前，这是绘制真正的长期潜力的起点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SeaMoney (Digital Financial Services)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SeaMoney（数字金融服务）</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payment Volumes increased to $3.4B in Q1 21, from $1.0B during the same period last year</li>  <li>Quarterly Paying Users increased to 26.1 million in Q1 21, from ~10 million during the same period last year</li> </ul> <i>Source:Q1 2021 Earnings Release</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>21年第一季度的总支付量从去年同期的$1.0 B增至$3.4 B</li><li>21年第一季度季度付费用户从去年同期的约1000万增至2610万</li></ul><i>资料来源：2021年第一季度收益发布</i></blockquote></p><p> SeaMoney is the umbrella under which Sea Group operates multiple Fintech Apps including Shopee Pay. Current products include payments and payment processing, but if one were to look beyond into other Fintech Apps in China or the West, digital financial services tend to coalesce into super apps. For many people living in Southeast Asia, it isn't even about disruption but rather their first introduction to financial services of any sort. Unfortunately, a glance at the Fintech environment would leave any public market investor a bit confused.</p><p><blockquote>SeaMoney是Sea Group运营包括Shopee Pay在内的多个金融科技应用程序的保护伞。目前的产品包括支付和支付处理，但如果人们超越中国或西方的其他金融科技应用，数字金融服务往往会合并为超级应用。对于许多生活在东南亚的人来说，这甚至不是颠覆，而是他们第一次接触任何形式的金融服务。不幸的是，看一眼金融科技环境，任何公开市场投资者都会感到有点困惑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09e8a02fd03188b0d9cb12841f889fe5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Source:FintechNews.SG</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FintechNews.SG</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 26.1 million quarterly paying users (QPUs), and not monthly-PUs or daily-PUs for that matter doesn't give us much granularity in data or how the segment is truly performing. $3.4B in Transaction Payment Volume is somewhat impressive, considering the last quarter saw about $12.6B in GMV on Shopee. Ultimately, the broader adoption of SeaMoney by both merchants and consumers beyond the Shopee platform is important to catalyze network large scale effects. The greater the versatility of SeaMoney across instances in real-life, the better the hold the division would have over consumers. Longer-term, offering just payments is not enough. Credit, Debit, Investing, and other financial services, all in one app have been shown to differentiate the winners from the losers in geographies like China, or in the United States with Cash App by Square (SQ).</p><p><blockquote>2610万季度付费用户(QPU)，而不是月度付费用户或每日付费用户，并没有为我们提供太多数据粒度或该细分市场的真实表现。考虑到上季度Shopee上的GMV约为$12.6 B，$3.4 B的交易支付量有些令人印象深刻。最终，Shopee平台之外的商家和消费者更广泛地采用SeaMoney对于催化网络大规模效应非常重要。SeaMoney在现实生活中的多功能性越强，该部门对消费者的控制就越好。从长远来看，仅仅提供支付是不够的。信贷、借记、投资和其他金融服务都在一个应用程序中，事实证明，在中国等地区，或者在美国，Square(SQ)的现金应用程序可以区分赢家和输家。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What can be said though, is that chances for continued growth, and winning market share are higher due to the group cross-pollination effects and network effects against Shopee customers. I would still see the segment through the eyes of an embedded option in the share price that would produce asymmetric reward if it does expand to more customers.</p><p><blockquote>但可以说的是，由于群体异花授粉效应和针对Shopee客户的网络效应，持续增长和赢得市场份额的机会更高。我仍然会通过股价中嵌入期权的视角来看待该细分市场，如果它确实扩展到更多客户，该期权将产生不对称的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Runway Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前方跑道</b></blockquote></p><p> The excerpts below were taken from a report published in late 2020 by Google, Temasek, and Bain &amp; Company. The report highlights internet spending forecasts over six major markets in Southeast Asia: Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>以下摘录摘自谷歌、淡马锡和贝恩公司在2020年底发布的一份报告。该报告强调了东南亚六个主要市场的互联网支出预测：新加坡、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、泰国、马来西亚和越南。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bffb6329895d550a13b311bb474fde85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a66aadbe2d042623e0efa580879f9f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\"><span>Source:e-Conomy SEA 2020; by Google, Temasek, and Bain &amp; Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：电子经济SEA 2020；作者：谷歌、淡马锡和贝恩公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a whole, the internet economy in these countries is expected to compound at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 24%, almost tripling from $105B in GMV in 2020 to $309B in 2025. This provides a sense of scale for the region and the internet opportunity that Sea currently operates in as a leader. Note that these numbers exclude Taiwan and Latin America.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些国家的互联网经济预计将以24%的CAGR（复合年增长率）复合，从2020年的1050亿美元GMV增长到2025年的3090亿美元，几乎增长两倍。这为该地区提供了规模感以及Sea目前作为领导者运营的互联网机会。请注意，这些数字不包括台湾和拉丁美洲。</blockquote></p><p> For Digital Entertainment, Garena's Free Fire market appears to be a lot closer to saturation considering it is already one of the highest-grossing mobile games on the planet. Other Garena endeavours have a chance of success though I'd argue that \"Free Fire\"-like success is hard to come by especially in mobile gaming. Digital Financial Services is still early to call at least until it achieves broader mass adoption across the region. 26 million paying users is significant, though we'll have to give the business time until we can call it a meaningful sales contributor that in turn drives the stock price. As of now, it's a cash burn.</p><p><blockquote>对于数字娱乐来说，Garena的Free Fire市场似乎已经接近饱和，因为它已经是全球票房最高的手机游戏之一。Garena的其他努力也有成功的机会，尽管我认为像“自由射击”这样的成功很难实现，尤其是在手机游戏中。数字金融服务对看涨期权来说还为时过早，至少在它在整个地区实现更广泛的大规模采用之前是这样。2600万付费用户意义重大，尽管我们必须给企业时间，直到我们能够将其看涨期权为有意义的销售贡献者，进而推动股价。截至目前，这是一个现金消耗。</blockquote></p><p> That leaves e-Commerce as the main sales driver for the company in the next 2-3 years. Here are some country-specific forecasts for e-Commerce by the same source.</p><p><blockquote>这使得电子商务成为该公司未来2-3年的主要销售驱动力。以下是同一来源对电子商务的一些特定国家的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13ad7630877eaae1221848e7aa7d6e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\"><span>Source:e-Conomy SEA 2020, Local Highlights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：e-Conomy SEA 2020，本地亮点</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one would expect, Indonesia is the largest market. Vietnam is expected to compound at the fastest rate over the next few years. It's important to note that while the CAGRs are drawn in the 20-30% range, 2021 will see the highest rate while 2025 will see the lowest. 40%+ YoY SEA GMV growth for 2021 is quite likely in my opinion while 2025 could be closer to 15%.</p><p><blockquote>正如人们所料，印度尼西亚是最大的市场。预计越南将在未来几年以最快的速度复合。值得注意的是，虽然复合年增长率在20-30%范围内，但2021年将达到最高水平，而2025年将达到最低水平。我认为，2021年SEA GMV很可能同比增长40%以上，而2025年可能接近15%。</blockquote></p><p> The above chart uses GMV or Gross Merchandise Value. As discussed earlier, sales are a function of the take rate and the GMV. The take rate increases, the sales increase. Sea does this by dominating geographies and then deliberately increasing the take rate when network effects or the habituation of consumers on Shopee works at scale. Therefore, Sea's sales growth is set to outpace GMV expansion, especially when they widen their lead in a market. Given Latin America is also experiencing rapid Shopee adoption, it is reasonable to expect hyper-growth in the e-Commerce segment for years. The company expects 112% YoY growth for Shopee in FY2021 at the midpoint of their guidance (<i>Source:Q4 20 Transcript</i>).</p><p><blockquote>上图使用GMV或商品总值。如前所述，销售额是采用率和GMV的函数。接受率增加，销售额增加。Sea通过主导地理区域，然后在网络效应或消费者对Shopee的习惯大规模发挥作用时故意提高接受率来实现这一目标。因此，Sea的销售增长将超过GMV的扩张，尤其是当他们扩大在市场上的领先优势时。鉴于拉丁美洲也在快速采用Shopee，有理由预计电子商务领域将在未来几年内实现高速增长。该公司预计Shopee 2021财年同比增长112%，达到指导中点（<i>资料来源：20年第四季度成绩单</i>).</blockquote></p><p> Weave the above pieces together, Sea has an immense growth runway. The e-Commerce opportunity indicates that the company can theoretically be in hyper-growth mode for another 2-3 years, well into 2023.</p><p><blockquote>将上述部分编织在一起，Sea拥有一条巨大的增长跑道。电子商务机会表明，理论上该公司可以在接下来的2-3年内保持高速增长模式，直至2023年。</blockquote></p><p> With an established competitive moat, if there's one company to bet on to capitalize and win on the $300B internet GMV opportunity for 2025 (not counting Latin America &amp; Taiwan), Sea seems to be it. I expect the management will also come up with newer verticals that could expand their TAM further. Online in-app investing? travel? TV and movies? Streaming? With network effects this good, they have an unfair advantage. The management has already executed across multiple businesses and seems to deeply understand how the emerging market consumer thinks. They've also displayed evidence of tailoring apps, like Free Fire, to individual geography tastes to maximize execution. Let's look at the financials and valuation multiples to see how much of their future success is already factored in.</p><p><blockquote>凭借既定的竞争护城河，如果有一家公司可以押注于2025年3000亿美元的互联网GMV机会（不包括拉丁美洲和台湾），Sea似乎就是它。我预计管理层还将提出更新的垂直行业，以进一步扩大他们的TAM。在线应用内投资？旅行？电视和电影？流动？网络效应如此之好，他们拥有不公平的优势。管理层已经在多项业务中执行，似乎深刻理解新兴市场消费者的想法。他们还展示了根据个人地理口味定制Free Fire等应用程序的证据，以最大限度地提高执行力。让我们看看财务和估值倍数，看看他们未来的成功有多少已经被考虑在内。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Group Financial Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>集团财务概览</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I previously mentioned the cash flow valley of death and how segments balance out to achieve cash flow generative growth. The company reports Adjusted EBITDA figures by segment that display similar trends. The \"adjustments\" are quite substantial compared to GAAP metrics, but they're a reasonable indicator after removing stock-based compensation, convertible interest payments, and non-core profitability generation. We're looking long-term here, so the game becomes comparing profitability to itself across time rather than other businesses. I'm more interested in trends and margin expansion rather than absolute values for now. The following chart shows how the breakdown balances out.</p><p><blockquote>我之前提到过现金流死亡谷以及细分市场如何平衡以实现现金流生成增长。该公司按部门报告调整后的EBITDA数据，显示出类似的趋势。与公认会计准则指标相比，这些“调整”相当大，但在去除股票薪酬、可转换利息支付和非核心盈利能力后，它们是一个合理的指标。我们在这里着眼于长期，因此游戏变成了将盈利能力与自身进行比较，而不是与其他业务进行比较。目前我对趋势和利润率扩张更感兴趣，而不是绝对值。下图显示了细分是如何平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d09aa44220209f2c3a08bdf77363fee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\"><span>Source: Author, Data from Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The trends were seen above follow the cash flow valley diagram. Digital Entertainment is funding Shopee and SeaMoney, and the net result (the bright pink line) is Group Adjusted EBITDA positive for the past four quarters. Going forward, I expect e-Commerce to pass its valley shortly as sales growth decelerates, and expect digital financial services to continue to burn cash at higher amounts sequentially. The group's total financial performance is encapsulated in the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>上面看到的趋势遵循现金流谷图。Digital Entertainment正在为Shopee和SeaMoney提供资金，净结果（亮粉色线）是过去四个季度集团调整后的EBITDA为正。展望未来，我预计随着销售增长放缓，电子商务将很快度过低谷，并预计数字金融服务将继续以更高的金额烧钱。本集团的整体财务表现载于下表：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50cdf1dd4ad0cc063ae074d6bec713bd\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Author, Data from Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Gross Profits have risen due to higher take rates in e-Commerce and improving incremental margins on Digital Entertainment. These margins would come under some pressure as Shopee will outpace Garena, and the lower-margin e-commerce will make a larger proportion of the gross profit mix. Adjusted EBITDA is under control, and while the company is unprofitable on a GAAP basis, I believe it is still fair given that the top-line is growing at triple-digit percentages. Total Revenue for Q4 has grown 12.6% QoQ and 146.7% YoY. On an LTM basis, Revenues have grown 113.7% YoY. With a long-runway ahead, and with the currently phenomenal product and sales execution, Sea Group is a financially healthy company.<b>The profit tradeoff for growth is fair, even though it's a rarity given the sheer scale of the business.</b></p><p><blockquote>由于电子商务采用率上升和数字娱乐增量利润率提高，毛利润有所上升。随着Shopee将超过Garena，这些利润率将面临一些压力，而利润率较低的电子商务将在毛利润组合中占据更大比例。调整后的EBITDA已得到控制，虽然该公司按公认会计准则计算尚未盈利，但考虑到营收正以三位数的百分比增长，我相信这仍然是公平的。第四季度总收入环比增长12.6%，同比增长146.7%。按LTM计算，收入同比增长113.7%。Sea Group还有很长的路要走，并且凭借目前非凡的产品和销售执行力，是一家财务状况良好的公司。<b>利润与增长的权衡是公平的，尽管考虑到业务的庞大规模，这种情况很少见。</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors would take some relief in the fact that the company has amassed ~$5.8B in Cash &amp; Equivalents on its balance sheet that would fund losses for some time. If need be, there is a profit switch in Shopee that the company can activate that will result in larger take rates to boost profitability. Sellers on the platform may have no choice in such a situation, considering the breadth, reach, and engagement on the Shopee platform and would go along with the asking price. There is a substantial moat here and the resulting pricing power can be exercised on demand to boost profitability. This isn't new information; Amazon's (AMZN) US e-commerce for example has made similar moves.</p><p><blockquote>投资者会松一口气，因为该公司的资产负债表上积累了约5.8 B美元的现金及等价物，可以弥补一段时间的损失。如果需要，公司可以激活Shopee中的利润转换，这将导致更高的采用率以提高盈利能力。在这种情况下，平台上的卖家可能别无选择，考虑到Shopee平台上的广度、覆盖范围和参与度，他们会同意要价。这里有一条巨大的护城河，由此产生的定价权可以按需行使，以提高盈利能力。这不是新信息；例如，亚马逊（AMZN）的美国电子商务也采取了类似的举措。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c5cf2d88f832fa4e10dd048d0492f1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Group Gross Profits are at the 30% range and Shopee specific metrics are expectedly lower. So a 23.7x LTM EV/S multiple is obviously huge. When contextualizing growth prospects and the excellent competitive positioning, the forward EV/S metrics are far more reasonable. According to the Koyfin database, the analyst consensus forward multiples are as follow:</p><p><blockquote>集团毛利润在30%左右，Shopee的具体指标预计会更低。因此，23.7倍的LTM EV/S倍数显然是巨大的。当结合增长前景和出色的竞争定位时，远期EV/S指标要合理得多。根据Koyfin数据库，分析师共识远期倍数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY 2021 EV/S of 16.0x</li>  <li>FY 2022 EV/S of 11.1x</li>  <li>FY 2023 EV/S of 8.3x</li> </ul> <i>Source: Koyfin</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年EV/S为16.0倍</li><li>2022财年EV/S为11.1倍</li><li>2023财年EV/S为8.3倍</li></ul><i>资料来源：Koyfin</i></blockquote></p><p> Analysts have historically been on the side of conservatism for almost every high-growth tech company. Sea Group has almost always beaten its revenue figures though they usually fall slightly short on profitability. The 8.3x for 2023 means it's valued on Tencent-like multiples (adjusted for lower gross profits) but in three years. It is indeed a baby Tencent, and I would also argue that&nbsp;OTCPK:TCEHY&nbsp;itself is somewhat undervalued given the low sentiment surrounding regulations and foreign investments in Chinese tech. Are these multiples reasonable? And where is the upside? I believe SE's current price fair, but the upside will have to come from sustained revenue beats, continued product developments, and mass-scale user acquisition. Multiple compression may need to counter share price dilution, and then actually give us a reasonable rate of return. This is a situation where the following wisdom is applicable in my opinion:</p><p><blockquote>对于几乎所有高增长科技公司，分析师历来都站在保守主义一边。Sea Group几乎总是超出其收入数据，尽管盈利能力通常略有下降。2023年的市盈率为8.3倍，这意味着其估值与腾讯控股类似（根据较低的毛利润进行调整），但需要三年时间。它确实是一个婴儿腾讯控股，我还认为，鉴于围绕中国科技的监管和外国投资的情绪低迷，OTCPK：TCEHY本身的价值有些被低估。这些倍数合理吗？好处在哪里？我认为SE目前的价格是公平的，但上涨空间必须来自持续的收入增长、持续的产品开发和大规模用户获取。倍数压缩可能需要反制股价稀释，然后实际给我们一个合理的回报率。在我看来，这是一种适用以下智慧的情况：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price-Warren Buffett  <b>In my experience, when the quality of the company shines for a fair price, it's still worth an investment. Winners continue to win, and Sea Group is a rockstar business factoring in most qualitative aspects.</b>Given the visionary management (Forrest Li &amp; Co.) and what they've achieved so far, I'd put the odds in their favour.</p><p><blockquote>以合理的价格购买一家优秀的公司远比以美妙的价格购买一家公平的公司好——沃伦·巴菲特<b>根据我的经验，当公司的质量以合理的价格脱颖而出时，它仍然值得投资。赢家继续获胜，Sea Group是一家在大多数定性方面都考虑到的摇滚明星企业。</b>鉴于富有远见的管理层（Forrest Li&amp;Co.）以及他们迄今为止所取得的成就，我认为胜算对他们有利。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of odds, there are potential catalysts that could pull the future towards us. One would hypothesise that Shopee winning in Indonesia on a more definitive basis would result in sales getting a boost from a strategic take-rate expansion. Across the planet, the Latin American story is looking impressive and shouldn't be underestimated given the size of Brazil and Mexico. That's an additional 50% e-Commerce TAM compared to Southeast Asia. SeaMoney still has a lot to prove but the network effects from Shopee should help sustain an onboarding of customers. The overall business has optionality. By that I mean, embedded options that could be triggered by a few developments and unlock share price appreciation. These are worth a premium.</p><p><blockquote>说到赔率，有一些潜在的催化剂可以将未来拉向我们。人们可能会假设，Shopee在印度尼西亚取得更明确的胜利将导致销售额从战略接受率扩张中获得提振。在全球范围内，拉丁美洲的故事看起来令人印象深刻，考虑到巴西和墨西哥的面积，不应被低估。与东南亚相比，电子商务TAM增加了50%。SeaMoney还有很多东西需要证明，但Shopee的网络效应应该有助于维持客户的加入。整体业务具有选择性。我的意思是，嵌入式期权可以由一些发展触发并释放股价升值。这些是值得溢价的。</blockquote></p><p> I'm currently long SE. I reckon there's still substantial outperformance potential over benchmarks though the easy alpha potential like we saw in 2020 is unlikely to present itself ever again. The bull thesis is too obvious now, everyone knows it, but it should still play out with alpha in my opinion. Every tech hedge fund in the world seems to be holding SE, and I agree with them. On the other hand, let's look at risks.</p><p><blockquote>我现在是龙瑟。我认为，尽管我们在2020年看到的简单阿尔法潜力不太可能再次出现，但仍有很大的优于基准的潜力。牛市论点现在太明显了，每个人都知道，但在我看来它仍然应该与阿尔法一起发挥作用。世界上每一家科技对冲基金似乎都持有SE，我同意他们的观点。另一方面，我们来看风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Free Fire Concentration:</b>The mobile gaming industry is fast, dynamic, and always changing. The next great game is always around the corner and it's entirely possible that Free Fire's popularity fades and the accompanying cash generation dries up. I believe this risk has reduced over the last year, but it's still worth considering.</li>  <li><b>Competition:</b>Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre in Latin America, and other internet businesses like Grab &amp; Gojek. There's plenty of competition at multiple fronts throughout the ecosystem.</li>  <li><b>Overly aggressive expansion strategy:</b>Sea Group's expansion into 7-8 countries and counting demonstrates a uniquely aggressive growth strategy. While their approach has worked out so far, it may work against them in the future. Knowing when to give up in a market that doesn't play out can stop unnecessary cash burn when the prize isn't significant enough.</li>  <li><b>Systemic Risks:</b>As a GAAP net loss business, Sea Group is subject to higher volatility, deep drawdowns, and sector/style selloffs. The sell-off in March is a recent example.</li>  <li><b>Macro:</b>Regulations and geopolitical factors in the emerging market geographies are typically more volatile than those in the US. A variety of macro risks and F/X risks are present at large.</li> </ul> <b>Ending Notes</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>自由火浓度：</b>移动游戏行业是快速的、动态的、不断变化的。下一个伟大的游戏总是在拐角处，完全有可能Free Fire的受欢迎程度会下降，随之而来的现金产生也会枯竭。我相信这种风险在去年有所降低，但仍然值得考虑。</li><li><b>竞争：</b>印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、拉丁美洲的MercadoLibre以及Grab&amp;Gojek等其他互联网企业。整个生态系统在多个方面都存在大量竞争。</li><li><b>过于激进的扩张策略：</b>Sea Group已扩展到7-8个国家，并且还在不断增加，这表明了其独特的积极增长战略。虽然他们的方法到目前为止奏效了，但将来可能会对他们不利。知道在一个没有发挥作用的市场中何时放弃可以在回报不够大时阻止不必要的现金消耗。</li><li><b>系统性风险：</b>作为一家公认会计准则净亏损企业，Sea Group面临更高的波动性、深度回撤和行业/风格抛售。三月份的抛售就是最近的一个例子。</li><li><b>宏：</b>新兴市场地区的监管和地缘政治因素通常比美国更不稳定。各种宏观风险和F/X风险普遍存在。</li></ul><b>尾注</b></blockquote></p><p> Concerns about overvaluation are perhaps warranted on a short-term outlook. In this situation, I do not have a strong near-term opinion but instead, harbour conviction in the company's long-term prospects. If one were to think in years rather than months, it is apparent to me that no competitor comes close to Sea Group in its chances for dominating e-commerce market share in most of its operating geographies. Indonesia is a key country to watch as Tokopedia is still putting up a fight. I'd put the odds on Sea since Tokopedia is a vanilla e-commerce player and doesn't have the scale and cross-pollination advantage unless they merge with another giant. Latin America is also looking like it will be a meaningful push to the top-line if not near term profitability. With excellent execution, Sea Group is leveraging its competitive positioning and is winning more often than not. The cross-pollination effect is a key advantage for internal cash generation and will help sustain the relentless growth as the business captures the massive opportunity that remains.</p><p><blockquote>从短期前景来看，对估值过高的担忧或许是有道理的。在这种情况下，我对近期没有强烈的看法，而是对公司的长期前景充满信心。如果用几年而不是几个月来思考，在我看来，很明显，在Sea Group在其大部分运营地区主导电子商务市场份额的机会方面，没有任何竞争对手能与Sea Group相提并论。印度尼西亚是一个值得关注的关键国家，因为Tokopedia仍在努力。我会把胜算放在海上，因为Tokopedia是一家普通的电子商务公司，除非他们与另一家巨头合并，否则不具备规模和异花授粉优势。拉丁美洲看起来也将对营收产生有意义的推动作用，如果不是短期盈利的话。凭借出色的执行力，Sea Group正在利用其竞争定位，并经常获胜。异花授粉效应是内部现金生成的一个关键优势，随着企业抓住剩余的巨大机会，将有助于维持持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> I imagine many experienced investors that caught the Amazon (AMZN) train early would look back on their investment as a staple component of their portfolio over the years. In my opinion, Sea Group offers a similar proposition a bit earlier in its lifecycle. Currently trading at a market cap of $130B, Sea can theoretically double in a few years once again in my opinion. Tencent in a duopolistic landscape (withBABA) features a $748B market cap across a 1.3 billion Chinese population. SE can go a third of that in a few years with a monopolistic position in Southeast Asia, scaling to a 1 billion strong emerging market population. This isn't a pure alpha opportunity as multiples have substantially expanded, but I would ballpark the company to deliver a 20%+ compounded return for investors that continue to hold it for a few years.<b>I'm long SE.</b></p><p><blockquote>我想，许多早早搭上亚马逊（AMZN）列车的经验丰富的投资者会回顾他们多年来的投资，将其视为其投资组合的主要组成部分。在我看来，Sea Group在其生命周期的早期就提出了类似的主张。在我看来，Sea目前的市值为1300亿美元，理论上可以在几年内再次翻倍。双头垄断格局中的腾讯控股（与阿里巴巴）在13亿中国人口中拥有748B美元的市值。凭借在东南亚的垄断地位，SE可以在几年内达到这一数字的三分之一，扩大到10亿强大的新兴市场人口。这不是一个纯粹的阿尔法机会，因为市盈率已大幅扩大，但我预计该公司将为继续持有几年的投资者带来20%以上的复合回报。<b>我是龙瑟。</b></blockquote></p><p> *****</p><p><blockquote>*****</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Thanks for reading! On a separate note, I'm excited to announce that I will be releasing a Marketplace subscription service soon called The Abstract Portfolio. High growth tech investing can involve a lot of fragmented information, sentiment, and noise. The Abstract Portfolio aims to bring focus and clarity by weaving together what matters and filtering out what doesn't. The service will feature a concentrated portfolio of cherry-picked stocks backed by rigorous fundamental research, assembled to deliver high absolute returns. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>感谢阅读！另外，我很高兴地宣布，我将很快发布一个名为Abstract Portfolio的市场订阅服务。高增长科技投资可能涉及大量分散的信息、情绪和噪音。抽象作品集旨在通过将重要的内容编织在一起，过滤掉不重要的内容，从而带来焦点和清晰度。该服务将提供由严格的基础研究支持的精选股票的集中投资组合，以提供高绝对回报。敬请期待！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analyzing Sea Limited's Relentless Growth<blockquote>分析Sea Limited的不懈增长</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalyzing Sea Limited's Relentless Growth<blockquote>分析Sea Limited的不懈增长</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 17:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article focuses on the growth engine that enables Sea Group. I provide a high-level overview and dive deeper into each operating segment.</li>  <li>The company has a significant advantage through segments that cross-pollinate each other with cash. Garena is currently funding the growth of Shopee and SeaMoney. This is a key moat contributor.</li>  <li>Shopee continues to be the key top-line driver with substantial Gross Merchandise Value growth forecasted in Southeast Asia. Consequently, increasing take rates will likely lead to even higher revenue growth.</li>  <li>Looking at overall online spending, the six largest Southeast Asian countries are forecasted to grow from $100B GMV in 2020 to $300B GMV in 2025. Sea stands to benefit across the board.</li>  <li>At an FY2023 EV/S of ~8.3x, Sea Group is fairly priced for an investment. It is a long-term conviction \"buy and hold\" for me.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27123526e3031d4a551f336a9189f19\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\"><span>Photo by Wachiwit/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文重点介绍Sea Group的增长引擎。我提供了一个高层次的概述，并深入探讨了每个运营部门。</li><li>该公司通过与现金交叉授粉的细分市场拥有显着优势。Garena目前正在为Shopee和SeaMoney的发展提供资金。这是护城河的关键贡献者。</li><li>Shopee仍然是主要的营收驱动力，预计东南亚的商品总价值将大幅增长。因此，提高接受率可能会带来更高的收入增长。</li><li>从整体在线支出来看，六个最大的东南亚国家预计将从2020年的1000亿美元GMV增长到2025年的3000亿美元GMV。Sea将全面受益。</li><li>Sea Group 2023财年的EV/S约为8.3倍，投资定价合理。对我来说，“买入并持有”是一个长期的信念。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Wachiwit/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Sea Group (NYSE:SE) is still running in hyper-growth mode (&gt;100% YoY last quarter and on a last-twelve-month basis).</p><p><blockquote>Sea Group（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）仍处于高速增长模式（上季度和过去12个月同比增长&gt;100%）。</blockquote></p><p> It's been over a year since I first wrote about Sea on Seeking Alpha. The company's rise has been staggering and the business has continued to surpass most expectations, with the stock returning over 300% in the last 12 months. I'd like to use this article as an opportunity to dive into what makes such growth at a ~$120B market cap possible and put forward my opinion on why the company is positioned to win more in the coming years. While a lot of alpha has been captured in the past, I still expect substantial broad index outperformance going forward over the long term. I'm long SE.</p><p><blockquote>距离我第一次在Seeking Alpha上撰写有关Sea的文章已经过去一年多了。该公司的涨幅惊人，业务继续超出大多数人的预期，该股在过去12个月内回报率超过300%。我想以这篇文章为机会，深入探讨是什么使市值达到约120B美元的增长成为可能，并就该公司为何能够在未来几年赢得更多胜利提出我的看法。虽然过去已经捕获了很多阿尔法，但我仍然预计从长远来看，广泛指数将大幅跑赢大盘。我是龙瑟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a quick recap of what the company constitutes. Sea Group is a Singapore-based consumer internet company that has three major divisions: Digital Entertainment, E-Commerce, and Digital Financial Services. In layman's terms, think of it as a smaller and younger version of Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) with a Southeast Asia focus.</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司构成的快速回顾。Sea Group是一家总部位于新加坡的消费互联网公司，拥有三大部门：数字娱乐、电子商务和数字金融服务。通俗地说，可以将其视为专注于东南亚的腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）的更小、更年轻版本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd938ae2a667d8bf6c2c8b8094ff94ab\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Author, Logos from Sea Group Media Resources</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，徽标来自Sea Group媒体资源</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Garena</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加雷纳</b></blockquote></p><p> Their Digital Entertainment arm known as \"Garena\" began as a third party game licensor and operator for popular online games (mostly by Tencent) for the South East Asia region. It consequently grew into an independent mobile game developer, and they now operate one of the most widely played mobile games on the planet, Free Fire, which has about 650 million quarterly active users worldwide. Free Fire is a battle-royale style multiplayer game, optimized to run smoothly on mobile phones with lower computing power specifications<i>.</i>The game generates revenue primarily from in-app purchases. It also features social media aspects, and more recently, an e-sports ecosystem built around it to host global tournaments streamed across the world. The cohesive gaming, social media, and entertainment aspects have led it to be highly engaging and relatively sticky with low churn as far as mobile games go.</p><p><blockquote>他们的数字娱乐部门“Garena”最初是东南亚地区流行在线游戏（主要是腾讯控股）的第三方游戏许可方和运营商。因此，它成长为一家独立的手机游戏开发商，他们现在运营着地球上玩得最广泛的手机游戏之一Free Fire，该游戏在全球拥有约6.5亿季度活跃用户。Free Fire是一款大逃杀风格的多人游戏，经过优化可以在较低计算能力规格的手机上流畅运行<i>.</i>该游戏的收入主要来自应用内购买。它还具有社交媒体方面的功能，最近，围绕它建立了一个电子竞技生态系统，以举办全球锦标赛。就手机游戏而言，游戏、社交媒体和娱乐方面的凝聚力使其具有高度吸引力和相对粘性，流失率较低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopee</b></p><p><blockquote><b>虾皮</b></blockquote></p><p> Shopee is the leading e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia + Taiwan, spanning about 7 countries with a population of over 600 million people. They also have a large presence in Latin America, including Mexico and Brazil (add another 300 million population). The app facilitated ~$12.6B in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) last quarter. Almost all the markets it operates in features rising middle classes, rapid digital consumerization, and strong GDP growth rates. These geographies have also been historically underpenetrated on the digital front, and are currently experiencing consumer internet adoption at a higher rate than their developed country counterparts. The pandemic catalyzed the seemingly inevitable trend of e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee是东南亚+台湾领先的电商平台，横跨约7个国家，人口超过6亿人。他们在拉丁美洲也有很大的影响力，包括墨西哥和巴西（再增加3亿人口）。该应用程序上季度的商品总价值(GMV)约为$12.6 B。它运营的几乎所有市场都以中产阶级不断壮大、快速的数字消费化和强劲的GDP增长率为特色。这些地区在数字领域的渗透率在历史上也很低，目前消费者互联网的采用率高于发达国家。疫情催化了电子商务采用这一看似不可避免的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SeaMoney</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SeaMoney</b></blockquote></p><p> This is Sea Group's \"Digital Financial Services\" (Fintech) arm. SeaMoney includes a digital wallet, payments processing, credit offerings, and other financial services. The segment had over 26 million quarterly paying users with over $3.4B in total payment volume facilitated last quarter. It is Sea Group's youngest division but arguably presents the largest opportunity for the company given that most of the Southeast Asian population has historically been underbanked. Theoretically, investments, loans, credit, debit, and insurance are all potential pieces that can weave together under a unified consumer financial services ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这是Sea Group的“数字金融服务”（Fintech）部门。SeaMoney包括数字钱包、支付处理、信贷产品和其他金融服务。该细分市场的季度付费用户超过2600万，上季度的总支付量超过$3.4 B。这是Sea Group最年轻的部门，但鉴于大多数东南亚人口历来银行服务不足，可以说为该公司提供了最大的机会。从理论上讲，投资、贷款、信贷、借记和保险都是可以在统一的消费金融服务生态系统下编织在一起的潜在部分。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> To summarize, Sea Group is a consumer internet titan with an ecosystem of high growth business divisions that are in total, likely touching over a billion people worldwide. On an LTM basis, the company's combined revenue grew 113.7% YoY. Sea is serving emerging markets that are experiencing internet adoption at accelerated rates, and is ballooning into a Tencent-like internet beast (consequently, they're Tencent-backed as well). A key factor in an investment consideration, is, of course, growth going forward. In the next few sections, I attempt to deconstruct growth using readily available-reported metrics and alternative data to make inferences on prospects.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Sea Group是一家消费互联网巨头，拥有一个由高增长业务部门组成的生态系统，这些业务部门总共可能覆盖全球超过10亿人。按LTM计算，公司总收入同比增长113.7%。Sea正在为互联网加速普及的新兴市场提供服务，并正在迅速成长为腾讯控股式的互联网野兽（因此，它们也得到了腾讯控股的支持）。当然，投资考虑的一个关键因素是未来的增长。在接下来的几节中，我试图使用现成的报告指标和替代数据来解构增长，以对前景做出推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Group Growth Through Cross-Pollination</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过异花授粉的群体生长</b></blockquote></p><p> Big growth requires cash. Chasing an underpenetrated e-commerce opportunity spanning 100s of millions of consumers requires a lot of cash. Sea has executed well in raising capital and putting it to work for growth, often playing its cards close to the chest pre-2020. The secret sauce for effective cash utilization, however, lies in the company's three-headed ecosystem structure. Shopee's growth would not be possible without the preceding success of Garena. And it's fair to say that SeaMoney's odds of success are substantially better because of Shopee's proliferation. The following diagram explains this.</p><p><blockquote>大增长需要现金。追逐覆盖数亿消费者的渗透不足的电子商务机会需要大量现金。Sea在筹集资金并将其用于增长方面表现出色，在2020年之前经常小心翼翼地出牌。然而，有效利用现金的秘诀在于公司的三头生态系统结构。如果没有Garena之前的成功，Shopee的增长是不可能的。公平地说，由于Shopee的激增，SeaMoney的成功几率要高得多。下图解释了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6629de9aa49e0ca3375f92306d80c289\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\"><span>Source: Author, Logos from Sea Group Media Resources</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，徽标来自Sea Group媒体资源</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A popular concept in venture capital is the \"Valley of Death\". A freshly funded startup enterprise tends to burn cash to invest in product development, overhead, sales, etc. It continues to burn cash until it finds product-market fit, and revenues eventually grow large enough to make the system work and turn the company cash flow generative. Businesses are vulnerable from a financial standpoint during the cash burn and have to beat the clock as their limited cash pours out rapidly until sales balance out expenditure. Many seed-stage startups just die due to this. Since venture capital proliferated in the last two decades and access to private funding has supplied enormous cash ammunition to growth businesses post product-market fit, the burn phase has extended to the public markets as well. If a public company's strategy doesn't work, it tends to downsize, get mildly profitable at modest growth rates, and turn into an acquisition target. Alternatively, it may collect in the vast land of unfulfilled public tech stocks. That's the anatomy of a modern tech company in a nutshell.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资中一个流行的概念是“死亡谷”。一个新融资的创业企业倾向于烧钱投资于产品开发、管理费用、销售等。它继续烧钱，直到找到适合产品市场的产品，收入最终增长到足以使系统发挥作用并使公司产生现金流。从财务角度来看，企业在烧钱期间很脆弱，必须争分夺秒，因为有限的现金迅速流出，直到销售额平衡支出。许多种子期创业公司因此而夭折。由于风险投资在过去二十年中激增，获得私人资金为产品市场契合后的成长型企业提供了巨大的现金弹药，燃烧阶段也延伸到了公开市场。如果一家上市公司的战略不起作用，它往往会缩小规模，以适度的增长率获得适度的利润，并成为收购目标。或者，它可能会聚集在广阔的未履行的公共科技股中。简而言之，这就是现代科技公司的剖析。</blockquote></p><p> Expanding upon this concept, Sea Group isn't one company. It's a lot like three companies. As of 2021, Garena is well out of the cash flow valley of death, Shopee is burning big cash but is seemingly at a trough, and SeaMoney is just getting started. Proceeds from mature segments like Garena are used to pollinate growth in segments that have lower market penetration and longer growth runways (like Shopee &amp; SeaMoney).<b>In totality, Sea Group is an ecosystem that continues to evolve with the next big company still embedded within, still in the making, all the time.</b>What's impressive is that Shopee's market potential is larger than Garena's, and SeaMoney has an even larger theoretical market though any success might be early to call. The access to cash makes Sea Group's growth outright suffocating for competitors because individual non-ecosystems simply cannot compete on pricing, marketing budgets, and moderate economies of scale in the case of e-commerce. That's not to take away from Sea's excellent product and sales execution anyway. The following sections break down the three sub-companies and draw inferences from their growth metrics.</p><p><blockquote>扩展这一概念，Sea Group并不是一家公司。很像三家公司。截至2021年，Garena已经走出了现金流死亡谷，Shopee正在烧钱，但似乎正处于低谷，而SeaMoney才刚刚起步。Garena等成熟细分市场的收益用于促进市场渗透率较低、增长跑道较长的细分市场（如Shopee和SeaMoney）的增长。<b>总的来说，Sea Group是一个不断发展的生态系统，下一个大公司仍然嵌入其中，仍在形成中。</b>令人印象深刻的是，Shopee的市场潜力比Garena更大，而SeaMoney的理论市场甚至更大，尽管看涨期权可能还为时过早。获得现金使得Sea Group的增长对竞争对手来说完全令人窒息，因为在电子商务的情况下，单个非生态系统根本无法在定价、营销预算和适度规模经济方面竞争。无论如何，这并不能削弱Sea出色的产品和销售执行力。以下部分对这三家子公司进行了细分，并从其增长指标中得出结论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Garena (Digital Entertainment)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Garena（数字娱乐）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d10df5e5cd40c3f8cdb6fa3565fb1e\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"264\"><span>Source: Author,Data from Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The charts above pertain to the Digital Entertainment segment, with the marked lines displaying YoY (Year-over-Year), and QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter) percentage growth. Gross Bookings are the key top-line metric as they represent revenues that are yet to be recognized on the GAAP front. Due to the nature of in-app purchases and other payments made on apps like Free Fire etc., there's a fairly substantial difference between the two. Previously reported as Adjusted Revenues, Gross Bookings have held strong and have recently recorded 10% QoQ growth for the first quarter even though the pandemic has been easing off with a reopening trend. Q1-Q3 2020 saw rapid growth, while the last few quarters have tapered down to levels that are seemingly more muted. This should be expected to continue.</p><p><blockquote>上面的图表与数字娱乐领域相关，标记线显示同比（同比）和环比（环比）百分比增长。总预订量是关键的营收指标，因为它们代表了尚未在公认会计准则方面确认的收入。由于应用内购买和在Free Fire等应用上进行的其他支付的性质。，两者之间有相当大的区别。尽管疫情随着重新开放的趋势而有所缓解，但之前报告的调整后收入总额一直保持强劲，最近第一季度环比增长了10%。2020年第一季度至第三季度增长迅速，而过去几个季度已逐渐放缓至看似更加温和的水平。这种情况应该会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is worth mentioning how Free Fire has stuck around instead of temporarily leading top mobile gaming charts like most other games. In the gaming world, you have temporarily viral games, and then you have games that have a dedicated following across millions of users that evolve and provide engagement over sustained periods of time. The latter includes Call of Duty, PUBG, League of Legends, and Fortnite to name a few. Ultimately, the revenues of these games are predictable and sticky enough. It appears as though Free Fire has joined this group.</p><p><blockquote>值得一提的是，Free Fire并没有像大多数其他游戏一样暂时领先手机游戏排行榜。在游戏世界中，你有暂时的病毒式游戏，然后你有拥有数百万用户忠实追随者的游戏，这些游戏在持续的时间内不断发展并提供参与。后者包括《使命看涨期权》、《PUBG》、《英雄联盟》和《堡垒之夜》等等。最终，这些游戏的收入是可预测的，并且具有足够的粘性。似乎自由之火已经加入了这个团体。</blockquote></p><p> The way Free Fire was built from the ground up is relatively contrarian. It's optimized to work on cheaper Android-powered smartphones instead of consoles and dedicated devices that are often seen as staple purchases for many gamers in developed countries. Getting a Switch, Xbox, or PC for most people in emerging markets is a serious expense. With Free Fire, you can get away with what you already have in India, Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia. All you need is a smartphone and you're getting bang for your buck gaming and entertainment. This aspect has made it a perfect emerging market game.<b>While most of the industry was focused on higher ticket experiences, Garena's contrarian outlook on making a game specifically for ignored categories of mobile players has helped it succeed.</b></p><p><blockquote>Free Fire从头开始构建的方式相对来说是逆向的。它经过优化，可以在更便宜的Android智能手机上运行，而不是游戏机和专用设备，这些设备通常被视为发达国家许多游戏玩家的主要购买。对于新兴市场的大多数人来说，购买Switch、Xbox或PC是一笔不小的开支。有了Free Fire，你可以摆脱你在印度、巴西、墨西哥和印度尼西亚已经拥有的东西。你所需要的只是一部智能手机，你的游戏和娱乐就会物有所值。这方面使它成为一个完美的新兴市场游戏。<b>虽然大多数行业都专注于更高的门票体验，但Garena在专门为被忽视的移动玩家类别制作游戏方面的逆向观点帮助它取得了成功。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a46c2a9d96ac17e0ad6c91fe7eb13f24\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"265\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21c5e5ecd14f6544b380b4c99aa42150\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"265\"><span>Source: Author, Data from Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite going after large populations of price-sensitive emerging market gamers, we see a surprising number of users actually paying for in-app purchases every quarter. QPU growth has outpaced QAU growth, with a larger proportion of the overall user mix trending towards paying users over time (11.4%, 12.0%, and 12.3% respectively for the last three quarters). This is key for the division's bookings and revenues. About a year ago, I expressed concern regarding the over-reliance on Free Fire as a sustainable cash source. I questioned whether it was truly here to stay and won't be replaced by the next hot game. This concern was abated when I learned that the e-sports events were amassing millions of viewers, the game continued to evolve with seasons and geography-specific features, and the social media angle that resulted in network effects across players.<b>It's impressive enough for a game to go to #1, but to stay in the top charts for 2-years running requires some excellent execution.</b></p><p><blockquote>尽管追求大量对价格敏感的新兴市场游戏玩家，但我们看到每个季度实际为应用内购买付费的用户数量惊人。QPU的增长超过了QAU的增长，随着时间的推移，整体用户组合中更大比例倾向于付费用户（过去三个季度分别为11.4%、12.0%和12.3%）。这是该部门预订和收入的关键。大约一年前，我对过度依赖Free Fire作为可持续现金来源表示担忧。我质疑它是否真的会留在这里，不会被下一场热门比赛取代。当我了解到电子竞技赛事聚集了数百万观众，游戏随着季节和地理特定的特征而继续发展，以及社交媒体角度导致了玩家之间的网络效应时，这种担忧就减轻了。<b>对于一款游戏来说，排名第一已经足够令人印象深刻了，但要连续两年保持在榜首需要一些出色的执行力。</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a table of Play Store rankings for the \"Games: Action\" category. I've included the Play Store since the majority of emerging market users are on Android as opposed to iOS.</p><p><blockquote>这是“游戏：动作”类别的Play Store排名表。我把Play Store包括在内，因为大多数新兴市场用户都在Android上，而不是iOS。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>India</b></td>    <td><b>Indonesia</b></td>    <td><b>Pakistan</b></td>    <td><b>Brazil</b></td>    <td><b>Nigeria</b></td>    <td><b>Bangladesh</b></td>    <td><b>Mexico</b></td>    <td><b>Philippines</b></td>    <td><b>Vietnam</b></td>    <td><b>Thailand</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Downloads: Gaming</b></td>    <td>10</td>    <td>17</td>    <td>18</td>    <td>8</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>3</td>    <td>11</td>    <td>135</td>    <td>11</td>    <td>10</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Downloads: Gaming Action</b></td>    <td>2</td>    <td>4</td>    <td>3</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>3</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>2</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Grossing: Gaming</b></td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>8</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>20</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Grossing: Gaming Action</b></td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>4</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: App Annie, As of 28th May 2021</i></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>印度</b></td><td><b>印度尼西亚</b></td><td><b>巴基斯坦</b></td><td><b>巴西</b></td><td><b>尼日利亚</b></td><td><b>孟加拉国</b></td><td><b>墨西哥</b></td><td><b>菲律宾</b></td><td><b>越南</b></td><td><b>泰国</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>下载：游戏</b></td><td>10</td><td>17</td><td>18</td><td>8</td><td>7</td><td>3</td><td>11</td><td>135</td><td>11</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td><b>下载：游戏动作</b></td><td>2</td><td>4</td><td>3</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>27</td><td>2</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td><b>票房：游戏</b></td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>8</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>20</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td><b>票房：游戏动作</b></td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr></tbody></table><i>资料来源：App Annie，截至2021年5月28日</i></blockquote></p><p> The above charts are compiled from some of the most populated emerging market countries I could find, along with my free App Annie account. While new downloads might have reduced over the last two quarters from the pandemic boost last year, the numbers are still impressive and Free Fire remains the top-grossing game amongst most of the geographies above. Importantly, it is the consistency of these rankings over time.</p><p><blockquote>上面的图表是根据我能找到的一些人口最多的新兴市场国家以及我的免费App Annie帐户汇编而成的。虽然过去两个季度的新下载量可能比去年疫情的增长有所下降，但这些数字仍然令人印象深刻，Free Fire仍然是上述大多数地区票房最高的游戏。重要的是，随着时间的推移，这些排名的一致性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Going by the growth metrics, long-term engagement is likely to be sustained, but there should be a sequential slowdown in new user adds and incremental gross bookings in the coming months.</b>This is consistent with what the management expects and reasonable given the reopening and saturation of the game across the global market. On the bright side, Digital Entertainment recorded an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 64% last quarter that should scale proportionately with gross bookings. After building out the game, there isn't too much in terms of costs to take away from the bottom line. Large sales and marketing expenditure isn't quite needed now that the game has global network effects. It's really about back-end, maintenance, and continued development work to keep evolving the already successful game and ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote><b>从增长指标来看，长期参与度可能会持续下去，但未来几个月新用户增加和总预订量增量应该会连续放缓。</b>这与管理层的预期一致，考虑到游戏在全球市场的重新开放和饱和，这是合理的。好的一面是，数字娱乐上季度调整后的EBITDA利润率为64%，应该与总预订量成比例增长。在构建完游戏之后，就成本而言，没有太多可以从底线中扣除的。既然游戏具有全球网络效应，就不太需要大量的销售和营销支出了。这实际上是关于后端、维护和持续的开发工作，以不断发展已经成功的游戏和生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> Shopee (E-Commerce)</p><p><blockquote>Shopee（电子商务）</blockquote></p><p> The following two charts present gross orders and gross merchandise value (GMV) for the e-commerce division.</p><p><blockquote>以下两张图表显示了电子商务部门的总订单和商品总值(GMV)。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb09b8563ac1df1a5d8e7458b30c3054\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/628c3b271ee17e9c430045d0f686f75c\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"264\"><span>Source: Author, Data from Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The trends are similar across both charts. Q2 2020 saw acceleration due to the pandemic, Q4 2020 saw a seasonal high, and Q1 2021 saw QoQ deceleration going out of the holiday season across most geographies. As Gross Orders have outpaced GMV, we can conclude that more people are ordering cheaper items on the platform on average. If we consider seasonality, the 5-6% QoQ growth in Q1 2021 isn't particularly concerning and we'll likely see a sequential pickup in the next quarter. It's fair to expect the reopening trend to put some downward pressure on growth but the long term feasibility of the platform has likely cemented itself for consumers. The convenience and product pricing on e-commerce is simply hard to compete with for brick &amp; mortar, and we're not going back to pre-pandemic levels of online retail again. The following earnings release excerpt provides some colour on e-commerce GAAP Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>两张图表的趋势相似。由于疫情，Q2 2020年出现了加速，2020年第四季度出现了季节性高点，Q1 2021年大多数地区在假期结束后出现了环比减速。由于总订单量已经超过了GMV，我们可以得出结论，平均而言，更多的人在平台上订购更便宜的商品。如果我们考虑季节性，2021年第一季度5-6%的环比增长并不是特别令人担忧，我们可能会在下个季度看到环比回升。预计重新开放趋势将给增长带来一些下行压力是公平的，但该平台的长期可行性可能已经巩固了消费者的地位。电子商务的便利性和产品定价很难与实体店竞争，我们不会再回到大流行前的在线零售水平。以下收益发布摘录提供了有关电子商务GAAP收入的一些信息。</blockquote></p><p>   GAAP revenue was US$922.3 million, up 250.4% year-on-year.    GAAP revenue included US$715.9 million of GAAP marketplace revenue, up 285.0% year-on-year, and US$206.4 million of GAAP product revenue, up 167.1% year-on-year.    <i>Source:Q1 2021 Earnings Press Release</i>  Comparing the above information to the GMV chart, we can infer that<b>Sales have substantially outpaced GMV growth. This indicates a very deliberate move by the company to increase their take rates in dominant geographies.</b>Take rates are a function of the GMV and represent the proportion of the total GMV that makes it to revenues. As the standard consumer internet company goes, you expand and acquire customers at all costs, then you increase prices and get profitable after capturing a market and habituating consumers to your platform. Overall, the actions have also decreased Adjusted EBITDA losses substantially and that allows Sea to play the balancing cash flow act on demand.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP营收为9.223亿美元，同比增长250.4%。GAAP收入包括GAAP市场收入7.159亿美元，同比增长285.0%，GAAP产品收入2.064亿美元，同比增长167.1%。<i>资料来源：2021年第一季度收益新闻稿</i>将上述信息与GMV图表进行对比，我们可以推断<b>销售额大大超过了GMV的增长。这表明该公司有意提高其在主要地区的接受率。</b>采用率是GMV的函数，代表总GMV占收入的比例。就像标准的消费互联网公司一样，你不惜一切代价扩大和获取客户，然后在占领市场并让消费者习惯你的平台后提高价格并盈利。总体而言，这些行动还大幅减少了调整后的EBITDA损失，这使得Sea能够根据需要实施平衡现金流法案。</blockquote></p><p>   Both in Southeast Asia and in Taiwan, Shopee ranked first in the Shopping category by average monthly active users and total time spent in-app on Android for the first quarter of 2021, according to App Annie.    In Indonesia, where Shopee further accelerated its year-on-year growth in gross orders, it continued to rank first by average monthly active users and total time spent in app on Android in the Shopping category for the first quarter of 2021, according to App Annie.    <i>Source:Q1 2021 Earnings Press Release</i>  From a high-level view, Southeast Asia &amp; Taiwan seem pretty much covered. However, within this region, Indonesia still presents the fiercest battleground for Shopee as it competes against the SoftBank-backed Tokopedia. The following charts show monthly website visits for both companies.</p><p><blockquote>根据App Annie的数据，2021年第一季度，在东南亚和台湾，Shopee在Android上的平均月活跃用户和应用内总时间在购物类别中排名第一。根据App Annie的数据，在印度尼西亚，Shopee的总订单量同比增长进一步加快，2021年第一季度，其在购物类别中的平均月活跃用户和Android应用程序上花费的总时间继续排名第一。<i>资料来源：2021年第一季度收益新闻稿</i>从高层次的角度来看，东南亚和台湾似乎被覆盖了。然而，在该地区，印度尼西亚仍然是Shopee最激烈的战场，因为它与软银支持的Tokopedia竞争。下图显示了两家公司每月的网站访问量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49440f62634a1c3ccc9ebfdd0c7a33ba\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>Source:Southeast Asia Map of eCommerce, iPrice Group</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：东南亚电子商务地图，iPrice Group</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Monthly web visits from the iPrice Group show that Tokopedia saw more traffic (not necessarily sales) during the last quarter while it was behind during the last few. However, on mobile (App Store &amp; Android), Shopee is the undisputed leader in the Shopping category. This is reassuring since mobile e-commerce has been outpacing total e-commerce as a category in almost every geography across every platform.</p><p><blockquote>iPrice Group的每月网络访问量显示，Tokopedia在上个季度的流量（不一定是销售额）更多，而在过去几个季度则落后。然而，在移动（App Store&amp;Android）上，Shopee是购物类无可争议的领导者。这令人放心，因为在几乎每个平台的每个地区，移动电子商务作为一个类别已经超过了总电子商务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Indonesia Mobile Rankings</b></td>    <td><b>Q1 20</b></td>    <td><b>Q2 20</b></td>    <td><b>Q3 20</b></td>    <td><b>Q4 20</b></td>    <td><b>Q1 21</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Shopee App Store</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Shopee PlayStore</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>    <td>1</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Tokopedia App Store</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>2</td>    <td>2</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Tokopedia PlayStore</td>    <td>3</td>    <td>3</td>    <td>4</td>    <td>4</td>    <td>4</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Southeast Asia Map of eCommerce, iPrice Group</i></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>印度尼西亚移动排名</b></td><td><b>Q1 20</b></td><td><b>Q2 20</b></td><td><b>Q3 20</b></td><td><b>Q4 20</b></td><td><b>Q1 21</b></td></tr><tr><td>Shopee应用商店</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Shopee PlayStore</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Tokopedia应用商店</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Tokopedia PlayStore</td><td>3</td><td>3</td><td>4</td><td>4</td><td>4</td></tr></tbody></table><i>资料来源：东南亚电子商务地图，iPrice Group</i></blockquote></p><p> I would conclude that Tokopedia is a key competitor that needs to be watched closely and will prevent Shopee from exercising its take rates more liberally in the country. Furthermore, Indonesia represents the largest Southeast Asian market for e-commerce.<b>Cross-pollination isn't just occurring across Sea's segments but also across Shopee's different e-commerce geographies.</b>Profits from Shopee Thailand, for example, may be used to bring forth more competitive product pricing to Shopee Indonesia. Tokopedia is distinctly e-Commerce and limited to Indonesia, and likely doesn't have these internal cash generative advantages.</p><p><blockquote>我的结论是，Tokopedia是一个需要密切关注的主要竞争对手，并将阻止Shopee在该国更自由地行使其接受率。此外，印度尼西亚是东南亚最大的电子商务市场。<b>异花授粉不仅发生在Sea的各个细分市场，还发生在Shopee的不同电子商务地区。</b>例如，Shopee泰国的利润可用于为Shopee印度尼西亚带来更具竞争力的产品定价。Tokopedia显然是电子商务，仅限于印度尼西亚，可能不具备这些内部现金生成优势。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a look at what's happening across the globe in Latin America. Shopee is growing like wildfire in Mexico and Brazil. The charts below represent recent data as of late May.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看看全球拉丁美洲正在发生什么。Shopee在墨西哥和巴西像野火一样增长。下图代表了截至五月下旬的最新数据。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59030ed9023a1f492a597a9af00d646\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: App Annie, Rankings by Country in the \"Shopping\" category</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：App Annie，“购物”类别按国家排名</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Brazil and Mexico together make up for a population of ~330 million. The other e-commerce star in the category, MercadoLibre (MELI) ranks behind Shopee on Android for both Brazil and Mexico. The rankings depend on downloads instead of engagement, and MercadoLibre is often pegged to have a majority market share in Latin America as a whole (dominates Argentina). However, what the above alternative data above tell us is that Shopee has momentum in user share acquisition on an absolute basis. One can infer that more people are downloading Shopee in Mexico and Brazil as of late May compared to MercadoLibre at a faster rate. Higher downloads often translate to higher relatively higher market share gains.</p><p><blockquote>巴西和墨西哥总共约有3.3亿人口。该类别中的另一位电子商务明星MercadoLibre(MELI)在巴西和墨西哥的Android上排名均落后于Shopee。排名取决于下载量而不是参与度，MercadoLibre通常被认为在整个拉丁美洲拥有大部分市场份额（主导阿根廷）。然而，上述替代数据告诉我们的是，Shopee在绝对基础上拥有用户份额获取的势头。人们可以推断，与MercadoLibre相比，截至5月底，墨西哥和巴西有更多人下载Shopee，速度更快。更高的下载量通常会转化为更高的相对较高的市场份额收益。</blockquote></p><p> Add all the Shopee geographies together and they represent a billion people and a combined GDP of $6.5T according to my calculations (<i>Source for GDP:Worldometer</i>). I reckon this is where to start when drawing up true long-term potential before narrowing down further.</p><p><blockquote>根据我的计算，将所有Shopee地理位置加在一起，它们代表了10亿人口和6.5 T美元的GDP（<i>GDP来源：Worldometer</i>).我认为，在进一步缩小范围之前，这是绘制真正的长期潜力的起点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SeaMoney (Digital Financial Services)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SeaMoney（数字金融服务）</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payment Volumes increased to $3.4B in Q1 21, from $1.0B during the same period last year</li>  <li>Quarterly Paying Users increased to 26.1 million in Q1 21, from ~10 million during the same period last year</li> </ul> <i>Source:Q1 2021 Earnings Release</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>21年第一季度的总支付量从去年同期的$1.0 B增至$3.4 B</li><li>21年第一季度季度付费用户从去年同期的约1000万增至2610万</li></ul><i>资料来源：2021年第一季度收益发布</i></blockquote></p><p> SeaMoney is the umbrella under which Sea Group operates multiple Fintech Apps including Shopee Pay. Current products include payments and payment processing, but if one were to look beyond into other Fintech Apps in China or the West, digital financial services tend to coalesce into super apps. For many people living in Southeast Asia, it isn't even about disruption but rather their first introduction to financial services of any sort. Unfortunately, a glance at the Fintech environment would leave any public market investor a bit confused.</p><p><blockquote>SeaMoney是Sea Group运营包括Shopee Pay在内的多个金融科技应用程序的保护伞。目前的产品包括支付和支付处理，但如果人们超越中国或西方的其他金融科技应用，数字金融服务往往会合并为超级应用。对于许多生活在东南亚的人来说，这甚至不是颠覆，而是他们第一次接触任何形式的金融服务。不幸的是，看一眼金融科技环境，任何公开市场投资者都会感到有点困惑。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09e8a02fd03188b0d9cb12841f889fe5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Source:FintechNews.SG</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FintechNews.SG</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 26.1 million quarterly paying users (QPUs), and not monthly-PUs or daily-PUs for that matter doesn't give us much granularity in data or how the segment is truly performing. $3.4B in Transaction Payment Volume is somewhat impressive, considering the last quarter saw about $12.6B in GMV on Shopee. Ultimately, the broader adoption of SeaMoney by both merchants and consumers beyond the Shopee platform is important to catalyze network large scale effects. The greater the versatility of SeaMoney across instances in real-life, the better the hold the division would have over consumers. Longer-term, offering just payments is not enough. Credit, Debit, Investing, and other financial services, all in one app have been shown to differentiate the winners from the losers in geographies like China, or in the United States with Cash App by Square (SQ).</p><p><blockquote>2610万季度付费用户(QPU)，而不是月度付费用户或每日付费用户，并没有为我们提供太多数据粒度或该细分市场的真实表现。考虑到上季度Shopee上的GMV约为$12.6 B，$3.4 B的交易支付量有些令人印象深刻。最终，Shopee平台之外的商家和消费者更广泛地采用SeaMoney对于催化网络大规模效应非常重要。SeaMoney在现实生活中的多功能性越强，该部门对消费者的控制就越好。从长远来看，仅仅提供支付是不够的。信贷、借记、投资和其他金融服务都在一个应用程序中，事实证明，在中国等地区，或者在美国，Square(SQ)的现金应用程序可以区分赢家和输家。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What can be said though, is that chances for continued growth, and winning market share are higher due to the group cross-pollination effects and network effects against Shopee customers. I would still see the segment through the eyes of an embedded option in the share price that would produce asymmetric reward if it does expand to more customers.</p><p><blockquote>但可以说的是，由于群体异花授粉效应和针对Shopee客户的网络效应，持续增长和赢得市场份额的机会更高。我仍然会通过股价中嵌入期权的视角来看待该细分市场，如果它确实扩展到更多客户，该期权将产生不对称的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Runway Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前方跑道</b></blockquote></p><p> The excerpts below were taken from a report published in late 2020 by Google, Temasek, and Bain &amp; Company. The report highlights internet spending forecasts over six major markets in Southeast Asia: Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.</p><p><blockquote>以下摘录摘自谷歌、淡马锡和贝恩公司在2020年底发布的一份报告。该报告强调了东南亚六个主要市场的互联网支出预测：新加坡、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、泰国、马来西亚和越南。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bffb6329895d550a13b311bb474fde85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a66aadbe2d042623e0efa580879f9f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\"><span>Source:e-Conomy SEA 2020; by Google, Temasek, and Bain &amp; Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：电子经济SEA 2020；作者：谷歌、淡马锡和贝恩公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a whole, the internet economy in these countries is expected to compound at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 24%, almost tripling from $105B in GMV in 2020 to $309B in 2025. This provides a sense of scale for the region and the internet opportunity that Sea currently operates in as a leader. Note that these numbers exclude Taiwan and Latin America.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些国家的互联网经济预计将以24%的CAGR（复合年增长率）复合，从2020年的1050亿美元GMV增长到2025年的3090亿美元，几乎增长两倍。这为该地区提供了规模感以及Sea目前作为领导者运营的互联网机会。请注意，这些数字不包括台湾和拉丁美洲。</blockquote></p><p> For Digital Entertainment, Garena's Free Fire market appears to be a lot closer to saturation considering it is already one of the highest-grossing mobile games on the planet. Other Garena endeavours have a chance of success though I'd argue that \"Free Fire\"-like success is hard to come by especially in mobile gaming. Digital Financial Services is still early to call at least until it achieves broader mass adoption across the region. 26 million paying users is significant, though we'll have to give the business time until we can call it a meaningful sales contributor that in turn drives the stock price. As of now, it's a cash burn.</p><p><blockquote>对于数字娱乐来说，Garena的Free Fire市场似乎已经接近饱和，因为它已经是全球票房最高的手机游戏之一。Garena的其他努力也有成功的机会，尽管我认为像“自由射击”这样的成功很难实现，尤其是在手机游戏中。数字金融服务对看涨期权来说还为时过早，至少在它在整个地区实现更广泛的大规模采用之前是这样。2600万付费用户意义重大，尽管我们必须给企业时间，直到我们能够将其看涨期权为有意义的销售贡献者，进而推动股价。截至目前，这是一个现金消耗。</blockquote></p><p> That leaves e-Commerce as the main sales driver for the company in the next 2-3 years. Here are some country-specific forecasts for e-Commerce by the same source.</p><p><blockquote>这使得电子商务成为该公司未来2-3年的主要销售驱动力。以下是同一来源对电子商务的一些特定国家的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13ad7630877eaae1221848e7aa7d6e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\"><span>Source:e-Conomy SEA 2020, Local Highlights</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：e-Conomy SEA 2020，本地亮点</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one would expect, Indonesia is the largest market. Vietnam is expected to compound at the fastest rate over the next few years. It's important to note that while the CAGRs are drawn in the 20-30% range, 2021 will see the highest rate while 2025 will see the lowest. 40%+ YoY SEA GMV growth for 2021 is quite likely in my opinion while 2025 could be closer to 15%.</p><p><blockquote>正如人们所料，印度尼西亚是最大的市场。预计越南将在未来几年以最快的速度复合。值得注意的是，虽然复合年增长率在20-30%范围内，但2021年将达到最高水平，而2025年将达到最低水平。我认为，2021年SEA GMV很可能同比增长40%以上，而2025年可能接近15%。</blockquote></p><p> The above chart uses GMV or Gross Merchandise Value. As discussed earlier, sales are a function of the take rate and the GMV. The take rate increases, the sales increase. Sea does this by dominating geographies and then deliberately increasing the take rate when network effects or the habituation of consumers on Shopee works at scale. Therefore, Sea's sales growth is set to outpace GMV expansion, especially when they widen their lead in a market. Given Latin America is also experiencing rapid Shopee adoption, it is reasonable to expect hyper-growth in the e-Commerce segment for years. The company expects 112% YoY growth for Shopee in FY2021 at the midpoint of their guidance (<i>Source:Q4 20 Transcript</i>).</p><p><blockquote>上图使用GMV或商品总值。如前所述，销售额是采用率和GMV的函数。接受率增加，销售额增加。Sea通过主导地理区域，然后在网络效应或消费者对Shopee的习惯大规模发挥作用时故意提高接受率来实现这一目标。因此，Sea的销售增长将超过GMV的扩张，尤其是当他们扩大在市场上的领先优势时。鉴于拉丁美洲也在快速采用Shopee，有理由预计电子商务领域将在未来几年内实现高速增长。该公司预计Shopee 2021财年同比增长112%，达到指导中点（<i>资料来源：20年第四季度成绩单</i>).</blockquote></p><p> Weave the above pieces together, Sea has an immense growth runway. The e-Commerce opportunity indicates that the company can theoretically be in hyper-growth mode for another 2-3 years, well into 2023.</p><p><blockquote>将上述部分编织在一起，Sea拥有一条巨大的增长跑道。电子商务机会表明，理论上该公司可以在接下来的2-3年内保持高速增长模式，直至2023年。</blockquote></p><p> With an established competitive moat, if there's one company to bet on to capitalize and win on the $300B internet GMV opportunity for 2025 (not counting Latin America &amp; Taiwan), Sea seems to be it. I expect the management will also come up with newer verticals that could expand their TAM further. Online in-app investing? travel? TV and movies? Streaming? With network effects this good, they have an unfair advantage. The management has already executed across multiple businesses and seems to deeply understand how the emerging market consumer thinks. They've also displayed evidence of tailoring apps, like Free Fire, to individual geography tastes to maximize execution. Let's look at the financials and valuation multiples to see how much of their future success is already factored in.</p><p><blockquote>凭借既定的竞争护城河，如果有一家公司可以押注于2025年3000亿美元的互联网GMV机会（不包括拉丁美洲和台湾），Sea似乎就是它。我预计管理层还将提出更新的垂直行业，以进一步扩大他们的TAM。在线应用内投资？旅行？电视和电影？流动？网络效应如此之好，他们拥有不公平的优势。管理层已经在多项业务中执行，似乎深刻理解新兴市场消费者的想法。他们还展示了根据个人地理口味定制Free Fire等应用程序的证据，以最大限度地提高执行力。让我们看看财务和估值倍数，看看他们未来的成功有多少已经被考虑在内。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Group Financial Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>集团财务概览</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> I previously mentioned the cash flow valley of death and how segments balance out to achieve cash flow generative growth. The company reports Adjusted EBITDA figures by segment that display similar trends. The \"adjustments\" are quite substantial compared to GAAP metrics, but they're a reasonable indicator after removing stock-based compensation, convertible interest payments, and non-core profitability generation. We're looking long-term here, so the game becomes comparing profitability to itself across time rather than other businesses. I'm more interested in trends and margin expansion rather than absolute values for now. The following chart shows how the breakdown balances out.</p><p><blockquote>我之前提到过现金流死亡谷以及细分市场如何平衡以实现现金流生成增长。该公司按部门报告调整后的EBITDA数据，显示出类似的趋势。与公认会计准则指标相比，这些“调整”相当大，但在去除股票薪酬、可转换利息支付和非核心盈利能力后，它们是一个合理的指标。我们在这里着眼于长期，因此游戏变成了将盈利能力与自身进行比较，而不是与其他业务进行比较。目前我对趋势和利润率扩张更感兴趣，而不是绝对值。下图显示了细分是如何平衡的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d09aa44220209f2c3a08bdf77363fee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\"><span>Source: Author, Data from Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The trends were seen above follow the cash flow valley diagram. Digital Entertainment is funding Shopee and SeaMoney, and the net result (the bright pink line) is Group Adjusted EBITDA positive for the past four quarters. Going forward, I expect e-Commerce to pass its valley shortly as sales growth decelerates, and expect digital financial services to continue to burn cash at higher amounts sequentially. The group's total financial performance is encapsulated in the chart below:</p><p><blockquote>上面看到的趋势遵循现金流谷图。Digital Entertainment正在为Shopee和SeaMoney提供资金，净结果（亮粉色线）是过去四个季度集团调整后的EBITDA为正。展望未来，我预计随着销售增长放缓，电子商务将很快度过低谷，并预计数字金融服务将继续以更高的金额烧钱。本集团的整体财务表现载于下表：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50cdf1dd4ad0cc063ae074d6bec713bd\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Author, Data from Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Gross Profits have risen due to higher take rates in e-Commerce and improving incremental margins on Digital Entertainment. These margins would come under some pressure as Shopee will outpace Garena, and the lower-margin e-commerce will make a larger proportion of the gross profit mix. Adjusted EBITDA is under control, and while the company is unprofitable on a GAAP basis, I believe it is still fair given that the top-line is growing at triple-digit percentages. Total Revenue for Q4 has grown 12.6% QoQ and 146.7% YoY. On an LTM basis, Revenues have grown 113.7% YoY. With a long-runway ahead, and with the currently phenomenal product and sales execution, Sea Group is a financially healthy company.<b>The profit tradeoff for growth is fair, even though it's a rarity given the sheer scale of the business.</b></p><p><blockquote>由于电子商务采用率上升和数字娱乐增量利润率提高，毛利润有所上升。随着Shopee将超过Garena，这些利润率将面临一些压力，而利润率较低的电子商务将在毛利润组合中占据更大比例。调整后的EBITDA已得到控制，虽然该公司按公认会计准则计算尚未盈利，但考虑到营收正以三位数的百分比增长，我相信这仍然是公平的。第四季度总收入环比增长12.6%，同比增长146.7%。按LTM计算，收入同比增长113.7%。Sea Group还有很长的路要走，并且凭借目前非凡的产品和销售执行力，是一家财务状况良好的公司。<b>利润与增长的权衡是公平的，尽管考虑到业务的庞大规模，这种情况很少见。</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors would take some relief in the fact that the company has amassed ~$5.8B in Cash &amp; Equivalents on its balance sheet that would fund losses for some time. If need be, there is a profit switch in Shopee that the company can activate that will result in larger take rates to boost profitability. Sellers on the platform may have no choice in such a situation, considering the breadth, reach, and engagement on the Shopee platform and would go along with the asking price. There is a substantial moat here and the resulting pricing power can be exercised on demand to boost profitability. This isn't new information; Amazon's (AMZN) US e-commerce for example has made similar moves.</p><p><blockquote>投资者会松一口气，因为该公司的资产负债表上积累了约5.8 B美元的现金及等价物，可以弥补一段时间的损失。如果需要，公司可以激活Shopee中的利润转换，这将导致更高的采用率以提高盈利能力。在这种情况下，平台上的卖家可能别无选择，考虑到Shopee平台上的广度、覆盖范围和参与度，他们会同意要价。这里有一条巨大的护城河，由此产生的定价权可以按需行使，以提高盈利能力。这不是新信息；例如，亚马逊（AMZN）的美国电子商务也采取了类似的举措。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c5cf2d88f832fa4e10dd048d0492f1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Group Gross Profits are at the 30% range and Shopee specific metrics are expectedly lower. So a 23.7x LTM EV/S multiple is obviously huge. When contextualizing growth prospects and the excellent competitive positioning, the forward EV/S metrics are far more reasonable. According to the Koyfin database, the analyst consensus forward multiples are as follow:</p><p><blockquote>集团毛利润在30%左右，Shopee的具体指标预计会更低。因此，23.7倍的LTM EV/S倍数显然是巨大的。当结合增长前景和出色的竞争定位时，远期EV/S指标要合理得多。根据Koyfin数据库，分析师共识远期倍数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>FY 2021 EV/S of 16.0x</li>  <li>FY 2022 EV/S of 11.1x</li>  <li>FY 2023 EV/S of 8.3x</li> </ul> <i>Source: Koyfin</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021财年EV/S为16.0倍</li><li>2022财年EV/S为11.1倍</li><li>2023财年EV/S为8.3倍</li></ul><i>资料来源：Koyfin</i></blockquote></p><p> Analysts have historically been on the side of conservatism for almost every high-growth tech company. Sea Group has almost always beaten its revenue figures though they usually fall slightly short on profitability. The 8.3x for 2023 means it's valued on Tencent-like multiples (adjusted for lower gross profits) but in three years. It is indeed a baby Tencent, and I would also argue that&nbsp;OTCPK:TCEHY&nbsp;itself is somewhat undervalued given the low sentiment surrounding regulations and foreign investments in Chinese tech. Are these multiples reasonable? And where is the upside? I believe SE's current price fair, but the upside will have to come from sustained revenue beats, continued product developments, and mass-scale user acquisition. Multiple compression may need to counter share price dilution, and then actually give us a reasonable rate of return. This is a situation where the following wisdom is applicable in my opinion:</p><p><blockquote>对于几乎所有高增长科技公司，分析师历来都站在保守主义一边。Sea Group几乎总是超出其收入数据，尽管盈利能力通常略有下降。2023年的市盈率为8.3倍，这意味着其估值与腾讯控股类似（根据较低的毛利润进行调整），但需要三年时间。它确实是一个婴儿腾讯控股，我还认为，鉴于围绕中国科技的监管和外国投资的情绪低迷，OTCPK：TCEHY本身的价值有些被低估。这些倍数合理吗？好处在哪里？我认为SE目前的价格是公平的，但上涨空间必须来自持续的收入增长、持续的产品开发和大规模用户获取。倍数压缩可能需要反制股价稀释，然后实际给我们一个合理的回报率。在我看来，这是一种适用以下智慧的情况：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price-Warren Buffett  <b>In my experience, when the quality of the company shines for a fair price, it's still worth an investment. Winners continue to win, and Sea Group is a rockstar business factoring in most qualitative aspects.</b>Given the visionary management (Forrest Li &amp; Co.) and what they've achieved so far, I'd put the odds in their favour.</p><p><blockquote>以合理的价格购买一家优秀的公司远比以美妙的价格购买一家公平的公司好——沃伦·巴菲特<b>根据我的经验，当公司的质量以合理的价格脱颖而出时，它仍然值得投资。赢家继续获胜，Sea Group是一家在大多数定性方面都考虑到的摇滚明星企业。</b>鉴于富有远见的管理层（Forrest Li&amp;Co.）以及他们迄今为止所取得的成就，我认为胜算对他们有利。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of odds, there are potential catalysts that could pull the future towards us. One would hypothesise that Shopee winning in Indonesia on a more definitive basis would result in sales getting a boost from a strategic take-rate expansion. Across the planet, the Latin American story is looking impressive and shouldn't be underestimated given the size of Brazil and Mexico. That's an additional 50% e-Commerce TAM compared to Southeast Asia. SeaMoney still has a lot to prove but the network effects from Shopee should help sustain an onboarding of customers. The overall business has optionality. By that I mean, embedded options that could be triggered by a few developments and unlock share price appreciation. These are worth a premium.</p><p><blockquote>说到赔率，有一些潜在的催化剂可以将未来拉向我们。人们可能会假设，Shopee在印度尼西亚取得更明确的胜利将导致销售额从战略接受率扩张中获得提振。在全球范围内，拉丁美洲的故事看起来令人印象深刻，考虑到巴西和墨西哥的面积，不应被低估。与东南亚相比，电子商务TAM增加了50%。SeaMoney还有很多东西需要证明，但Shopee的网络效应应该有助于维持客户的加入。整体业务具有选择性。我的意思是，嵌入式期权可以由一些发展触发并释放股价升值。这些是值得溢价的。</blockquote></p><p> I'm currently long SE. I reckon there's still substantial outperformance potential over benchmarks though the easy alpha potential like we saw in 2020 is unlikely to present itself ever again. The bull thesis is too obvious now, everyone knows it, but it should still play out with alpha in my opinion. Every tech hedge fund in the world seems to be holding SE, and I agree with them. On the other hand, let's look at risks.</p><p><blockquote>我现在是龙瑟。我认为，尽管我们在2020年看到的简单阿尔法潜力不太可能再次出现，但仍有很大的优于基准的潜力。牛市论点现在太明显了，每个人都知道，但在我看来它仍然应该与阿尔法一起发挥作用。世界上每一家科技对冲基金似乎都持有SE，我同意他们的观点。另一方面，我们来看风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Free Fire Concentration:</b>The mobile gaming industry is fast, dynamic, and always changing. The next great game is always around the corner and it's entirely possible that Free Fire's popularity fades and the accompanying cash generation dries up. I believe this risk has reduced over the last year, but it's still worth considering.</li>  <li><b>Competition:</b>Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre in Latin America, and other internet businesses like Grab &amp; Gojek. There's plenty of competition at multiple fronts throughout the ecosystem.</li>  <li><b>Overly aggressive expansion strategy:</b>Sea Group's expansion into 7-8 countries and counting demonstrates a uniquely aggressive growth strategy. While their approach has worked out so far, it may work against them in the future. Knowing when to give up in a market that doesn't play out can stop unnecessary cash burn when the prize isn't significant enough.</li>  <li><b>Systemic Risks:</b>As a GAAP net loss business, Sea Group is subject to higher volatility, deep drawdowns, and sector/style selloffs. The sell-off in March is a recent example.</li>  <li><b>Macro:</b>Regulations and geopolitical factors in the emerging market geographies are typically more volatile than those in the US. A variety of macro risks and F/X risks are present at large.</li> </ul> <b>Ending Notes</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>自由火浓度：</b>移动游戏行业是快速的、动态的、不断变化的。下一个伟大的游戏总是在拐角处，完全有可能Free Fire的受欢迎程度会下降，随之而来的现金产生也会枯竭。我相信这种风险在去年有所降低，但仍然值得考虑。</li><li><b>竞争：</b>印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、拉丁美洲的MercadoLibre以及Grab&amp;Gojek等其他互联网企业。整个生态系统在多个方面都存在大量竞争。</li><li><b>过于激进的扩张策略：</b>Sea Group已扩展到7-8个国家，并且还在不断增加，这表明了其独特的积极增长战略。虽然他们的方法到目前为止奏效了，但将来可能会对他们不利。知道在一个没有发挥作用的市场中何时放弃可以在回报不够大时阻止不必要的现金消耗。</li><li><b>系统性风险：</b>作为一家公认会计准则净亏损企业，Sea Group面临更高的波动性、深度回撤和行业/风格抛售。三月份的抛售就是最近的一个例子。</li><li><b>宏：</b>新兴市场地区的监管和地缘政治因素通常比美国更不稳定。各种宏观风险和F/X风险普遍存在。</li></ul><b>尾注</b></blockquote></p><p> Concerns about overvaluation are perhaps warranted on a short-term outlook. In this situation, I do not have a strong near-term opinion but instead, harbour conviction in the company's long-term prospects. If one were to think in years rather than months, it is apparent to me that no competitor comes close to Sea Group in its chances for dominating e-commerce market share in most of its operating geographies. Indonesia is a key country to watch as Tokopedia is still putting up a fight. I'd put the odds on Sea since Tokopedia is a vanilla e-commerce player and doesn't have the scale and cross-pollination advantage unless they merge with another giant. Latin America is also looking like it will be a meaningful push to the top-line if not near term profitability. With excellent execution, Sea Group is leveraging its competitive positioning and is winning more often than not. The cross-pollination effect is a key advantage for internal cash generation and will help sustain the relentless growth as the business captures the massive opportunity that remains.</p><p><blockquote>从短期前景来看，对估值过高的担忧或许是有道理的。在这种情况下，我对近期没有强烈的看法，而是对公司的长期前景充满信心。如果用几年而不是几个月来思考，在我看来，很明显，在Sea Group在其大部分运营地区主导电子商务市场份额的机会方面，没有任何竞争对手能与Sea Group相提并论。印度尼西亚是一个值得关注的关键国家，因为Tokopedia仍在努力。我会把胜算放在海上，因为Tokopedia是一家普通的电子商务公司，除非他们与另一家巨头合并，否则不具备规模和异花授粉优势。拉丁美洲看起来也将对营收产生有意义的推动作用，如果不是短期盈利的话。凭借出色的执行力，Sea Group正在利用其竞争定位，并经常获胜。异花授粉效应是内部现金生成的一个关键优势，随着企业抓住剩余的巨大机会，将有助于维持持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> I imagine many experienced investors that caught the Amazon (AMZN) train early would look back on their investment as a staple component of their portfolio over the years. In my opinion, Sea Group offers a similar proposition a bit earlier in its lifecycle. Currently trading at a market cap of $130B, Sea can theoretically double in a few years once again in my opinion. Tencent in a duopolistic landscape (withBABA) features a $748B market cap across a 1.3 billion Chinese population. SE can go a third of that in a few years with a monopolistic position in Southeast Asia, scaling to a 1 billion strong emerging market population. This isn't a pure alpha opportunity as multiples have substantially expanded, but I would ballpark the company to deliver a 20%+ compounded return for investors that continue to hold it for a few years.<b>I'm long SE.</b></p><p><blockquote>我想，许多早早搭上亚马逊（AMZN）列车的经验丰富的投资者会回顾他们多年来的投资，将其视为其投资组合的主要组成部分。在我看来，Sea Group在其生命周期的早期就提出了类似的主张。在我看来，Sea目前的市值为1300亿美元，理论上可以在几年内再次翻倍。双头垄断格局中的腾讯控股（与阿里巴巴）在13亿中国人口中拥有748B美元的市值。凭借在东南亚的垄断地位，SE可以在几年内达到这一数字的三分之一，扩大到10亿强大的新兴市场人口。这不是一个纯粹的阿尔法机会，因为市盈率已大幅扩大，但我预计该公司将为继续持有几年的投资者带来20%以上的复合回报。<b>我是龙瑟。</b></blockquote></p><p> *****</p><p><blockquote>*****</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Thanks for reading! On a separate note, I'm excited to announce that I will be releasing a Marketplace subscription service soon called The Abstract Portfolio. High growth tech investing can involve a lot of fragmented information, sentiment, and noise. The Abstract Portfolio aims to bring focus and clarity by weaving together what matters and filtering out what doesn't. The service will feature a concentrated portfolio of cherry-picked stocks backed by rigorous fundamental research, assembled to deliver high absolute returns. Stay tuned!</p><p><blockquote>感谢阅读！另外，我很高兴地宣布，我将很快发布一个名为Abstract Portfolio的市场订阅服务。高增长科技投资可能涉及大量分散的信息、情绪和噪音。抽象作品集旨在通过将重要的内容编织在一起，过滤掉不重要的内容，从而带来焦点和清晰度。该服务将提供由严格的基础研究支持的精选股票的集中投资组合，以提供高绝对回报。敬请期待！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432517-analyzing-sea-limiteds-relentless-growth\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432517-analyzing-sea-limiteds-relentless-growth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100705667","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article focuses on the growth engine that enables Sea Group. I provide a high-level overview and dive deeper into each operating segment.\nThe company has a significant advantage through segments that cross-pollinate each other with cash. Garena is currently funding the growth of Shopee and SeaMoney. This is a key moat contributor.\nShopee continues to be the key top-line driver with substantial Gross Merchandise Value growth forecasted in Southeast Asia. Consequently, increasing take rates will likely lead to even higher revenue growth.\nLooking at overall online spending, the six largest Southeast Asian countries are forecasted to grow from $100B GMV in 2020 to $300B GMV in 2025. Sea stands to benefit across the board.\nAt an FY2023 EV/S of ~8.3x, Sea Group is fairly priced for an investment. It is a long-term conviction \"buy and hold\" for me.\n\nPhoto by Wachiwit/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nSea Group (NYSE:SE) is still running in hyper-growth mode (>100% YoY last quarter and on a last-twelve-month basis).\nIt's been over a year since I first wrote about Sea on Seeking Alpha. The company's rise has been staggering and the business has continued to surpass most expectations, with the stock returning over 300% in the last 12 months. I'd like to use this article as an opportunity to dive into what makes such growth at a ~$120B market cap possible and put forward my opinion on why the company is positioned to win more in the coming years. While a lot of alpha has been captured in the past, I still expect substantial broad index outperformance going forward over the long term. I'm long SE.\nRecap\nHere's a quick recap of what the company constitutes. Sea Group is a Singapore-based consumer internet company that has three major divisions: Digital Entertainment, E-Commerce, and Digital Financial Services. In layman's terms, think of it as a smaller and younger version of Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) with a Southeast Asia focus.\nSource: Author, Logos from Sea Group Media Resources\nGarena\nTheir Digital Entertainment arm known as \"Garena\" began as a third party game licensor and operator for popular online games (mostly by Tencent) for the South East Asia region. It consequently grew into an independent mobile game developer, and they now operate one of the most widely played mobile games on the planet, Free Fire, which has about 650 million quarterly active users worldwide. Free Fire is a battle-royale style multiplayer game, optimized to run smoothly on mobile phones with lower computing power specifications.The game generates revenue primarily from in-app purchases. It also features social media aspects, and more recently, an e-sports ecosystem built around it to host global tournaments streamed across the world. The cohesive gaming, social media, and entertainment aspects have led it to be highly engaging and relatively sticky with low churn as far as mobile games go.\nShopee\nShopee is the leading e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia + Taiwan, spanning about 7 countries with a population of over 600 million people. They also have a large presence in Latin America, including Mexico and Brazil (add another 300 million population). The app facilitated ~$12.6B in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) last quarter. Almost all the markets it operates in features rising middle classes, rapid digital consumerization, and strong GDP growth rates. These geographies have also been historically underpenetrated on the digital front, and are currently experiencing consumer internet adoption at a higher rate than their developed country counterparts. The pandemic catalyzed the seemingly inevitable trend of e-commerce adoption.\nSeaMoney\nThis is Sea Group's \"Digital Financial Services\" (Fintech) arm. SeaMoney includes a digital wallet, payments processing, credit offerings, and other financial services. The segment had over 26 million quarterly paying users with over $3.4B in total payment volume facilitated last quarter. It is Sea Group's youngest division but arguably presents the largest opportunity for the company given that most of the Southeast Asian population has historically been underbanked. Theoretically, investments, loans, credit, debit, and insurance are all potential pieces that can weave together under a unified consumer financial services ecosystem.\nTo summarize, Sea Group is a consumer internet titan with an ecosystem of high growth business divisions that are in total, likely touching over a billion people worldwide. On an LTM basis, the company's combined revenue grew 113.7% YoY. Sea is serving emerging markets that are experiencing internet adoption at accelerated rates, and is ballooning into a Tencent-like internet beast (consequently, they're Tencent-backed as well). A key factor in an investment consideration, is, of course, growth going forward. In the next few sections, I attempt to deconstruct growth using readily available-reported metrics and alternative data to make inferences on prospects.\nGroup Growth Through Cross-Pollination\nBig growth requires cash. Chasing an underpenetrated e-commerce opportunity spanning 100s of millions of consumers requires a lot of cash. Sea has executed well in raising capital and putting it to work for growth, often playing its cards close to the chest pre-2020. The secret sauce for effective cash utilization, however, lies in the company's three-headed ecosystem structure. Shopee's growth would not be possible without the preceding success of Garena. And it's fair to say that SeaMoney's odds of success are substantially better because of Shopee's proliferation. The following diagram explains this.\nSource: Author, Logos from Sea Group Media Resources\nA popular concept in venture capital is the \"Valley of Death\". A freshly funded startup enterprise tends to burn cash to invest in product development, overhead, sales, etc. It continues to burn cash until it finds product-market fit, and revenues eventually grow large enough to make the system work and turn the company cash flow generative. Businesses are vulnerable from a financial standpoint during the cash burn and have to beat the clock as their limited cash pours out rapidly until sales balance out expenditure. Many seed-stage startups just die due to this. Since venture capital proliferated in the last two decades and access to private funding has supplied enormous cash ammunition to growth businesses post product-market fit, the burn phase has extended to the public markets as well. If a public company's strategy doesn't work, it tends to downsize, get mildly profitable at modest growth rates, and turn into an acquisition target. Alternatively, it may collect in the vast land of unfulfilled public tech stocks. That's the anatomy of a modern tech company in a nutshell.\nExpanding upon this concept, Sea Group isn't one company. It's a lot like three companies. As of 2021, Garena is well out of the cash flow valley of death, Shopee is burning big cash but is seemingly at a trough, and SeaMoney is just getting started. Proceeds from mature segments like Garena are used to pollinate growth in segments that have lower market penetration and longer growth runways (like Shopee & SeaMoney).In totality, Sea Group is an ecosystem that continues to evolve with the next big company still embedded within, still in the making, all the time.What's impressive is that Shopee's market potential is larger than Garena's, and SeaMoney has an even larger theoretical market though any success might be early to call. The access to cash makes Sea Group's growth outright suffocating for competitors because individual non-ecosystems simply cannot compete on pricing, marketing budgets, and moderate economies of scale in the case of e-commerce. That's not to take away from Sea's excellent product and sales execution anyway. The following sections break down the three sub-companies and draw inferences from their growth metrics.\nGarena (Digital Entertainment)\nSource: Author,Data from Company Filings\nThe charts above pertain to the Digital Entertainment segment, with the marked lines displaying YoY (Year-over-Year), and QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter) percentage growth. Gross Bookings are the key top-line metric as they represent revenues that are yet to be recognized on the GAAP front. Due to the nature of in-app purchases and other payments made on apps like Free Fire etc., there's a fairly substantial difference between the two. Previously reported as Adjusted Revenues, Gross Bookings have held strong and have recently recorded 10% QoQ growth for the first quarter even though the pandemic has been easing off with a reopening trend. Q1-Q3 2020 saw rapid growth, while the last few quarters have tapered down to levels that are seemingly more muted. This should be expected to continue.\nIt is worth mentioning how Free Fire has stuck around instead of temporarily leading top mobile gaming charts like most other games. In the gaming world, you have temporarily viral games, and then you have games that have a dedicated following across millions of users that evolve and provide engagement over sustained periods of time. The latter includes Call of Duty, PUBG, League of Legends, and Fortnite to name a few. Ultimately, the revenues of these games are predictable and sticky enough. It appears as though Free Fire has joined this group.\nThe way Free Fire was built from the ground up is relatively contrarian. It's optimized to work on cheaper Android-powered smartphones instead of consoles and dedicated devices that are often seen as staple purchases for many gamers in developed countries. Getting a Switch, Xbox, or PC for most people in emerging markets is a serious expense. With Free Fire, you can get away with what you already have in India, Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia. All you need is a smartphone and you're getting bang for your buck gaming and entertainment. This aspect has made it a perfect emerging market game.While most of the industry was focused on higher ticket experiences, Garena's contrarian outlook on making a game specifically for ignored categories of mobile players has helped it succeed.\n\nSource: Author, Data from Company Filings\nDespite going after large populations of price-sensitive emerging market gamers, we see a surprising number of users actually paying for in-app purchases every quarter. QPU growth has outpaced QAU growth, with a larger proportion of the overall user mix trending towards paying users over time (11.4%, 12.0%, and 12.3% respectively for the last three quarters). This is key for the division's bookings and revenues. About a year ago, I expressed concern regarding the over-reliance on Free Fire as a sustainable cash source. I questioned whether it was truly here to stay and won't be replaced by the next hot game. This concern was abated when I learned that the e-sports events were amassing millions of viewers, the game continued to evolve with seasons and geography-specific features, and the social media angle that resulted in network effects across players.It's impressive enough for a game to go to #1, but to stay in the top charts for 2-years running requires some excellent execution.\nHere's a table of Play Store rankings for the \"Games: Action\" category. I've included the Play Store since the majority of emerging market users are on Android as opposed to iOS.\n\n\n\nIndia\nIndonesia\nPakistan\nBrazil\nNigeria\nBangladesh\nMexico\nPhilippines\nVietnam\nThailand\n\n\nDownloads: Gaming\n10\n17\n18\n8\n7\n3\n11\n135\n11\n10\n\n\nDownloads: Gaming Action\n2\n4\n3\n2\n1\n1\n3\n27\n2\n2\n\n\nGrossing: Gaming\n1\n1\n2\n1\n8\n2\n1\n20\n1\n1\n\n\nGrossing: Gaming Action\n1\n1\n2\n1\n2\n1\n1\n4\n1\n1\n\n\n\nSource: App Annie, As of 28th May 2021\nThe above charts are compiled from some of the most populated emerging market countries I could find, along with my free App Annie account. While new downloads might have reduced over the last two quarters from the pandemic boost last year, the numbers are still impressive and Free Fire remains the top-grossing game amongst most of the geographies above. Importantly, it is the consistency of these rankings over time.\nGoing by the growth metrics, long-term engagement is likely to be sustained, but there should be a sequential slowdown in new user adds and incremental gross bookings in the coming months.This is consistent with what the management expects and reasonable given the reopening and saturation of the game across the global market. On the bright side, Digital Entertainment recorded an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 64% last quarter that should scale proportionately with gross bookings. After building out the game, there isn't too much in terms of costs to take away from the bottom line. Large sales and marketing expenditure isn't quite needed now that the game has global network effects. It's really about back-end, maintenance, and continued development work to keep evolving the already successful game and ecosystem.\nShopee (E-Commerce)\nThe following two charts present gross orders and gross merchandise value (GMV) for the e-commerce division.\n\nSource: Author, Data from Company Filings\nThe trends are similar across both charts. Q2 2020 saw acceleration due to the pandemic, Q4 2020 saw a seasonal high, and Q1 2021 saw QoQ deceleration going out of the holiday season across most geographies. As Gross Orders have outpaced GMV, we can conclude that more people are ordering cheaper items on the platform on average. If we consider seasonality, the 5-6% QoQ growth in Q1 2021 isn't particularly concerning and we'll likely see a sequential pickup in the next quarter. It's fair to expect the reopening trend to put some downward pressure on growth but the long term feasibility of the platform has likely cemented itself for consumers. The convenience and product pricing on e-commerce is simply hard to compete with for brick & mortar, and we're not going back to pre-pandemic levels of online retail again. The following earnings release excerpt provides some colour on e-commerce GAAP Revenue.\n\n GAAP revenue was US$922.3 million, up 250.4% year-on-year.\n\n\n GAAP revenue included US$715.9 million of GAAP marketplace revenue, up 285.0% year-on-year, and US$206.4 million of GAAP product revenue, up 167.1% year-on-year.\n\n\nSource:Q1 2021 Earnings Press Release\n\nComparing the above information to the GMV chart, we can infer thatSales have substantially outpaced GMV growth. This indicates a very deliberate move by the company to increase their take rates in dominant geographies.Take rates are a function of the GMV and represent the proportion of the total GMV that makes it to revenues. As the standard consumer internet company goes, you expand and acquire customers at all costs, then you increase prices and get profitable after capturing a market and habituating consumers to your platform. Overall, the actions have also decreased Adjusted EBITDA losses substantially and that allows Sea to play the balancing cash flow act on demand.\n\n Both in Southeast Asia and in Taiwan, Shopee ranked first in the Shopping category by average monthly active users and total time spent in-app on Android for the first quarter of 2021, according to App Annie.\n\n\n In Indonesia, where Shopee further accelerated its year-on-year growth in gross orders, it continued to rank first by average monthly active users and total time spent in app on Android in the Shopping category for the first quarter of 2021, according to App Annie.\n\n\nSource:Q1 2021 Earnings Press Release\n\nFrom a high-level view, Southeast Asia & Taiwan seem pretty much covered. However, within this region, Indonesia still presents the fiercest battleground for Shopee as it competes against the SoftBank-backed Tokopedia. The following charts show monthly website visits for both companies.\nSource:Southeast Asia Map of eCommerce, iPrice Group\nMonthly web visits from the iPrice Group show that Tokopedia saw more traffic (not necessarily sales) during the last quarter while it was behind during the last few. However, on mobile (App Store & Android), Shopee is the undisputed leader in the Shopping category. This is reassuring since mobile e-commerce has been outpacing total e-commerce as a category in almost every geography across every platform.\n\n\n\nIndonesia Mobile Rankings\nQ1 20\nQ2 20\nQ3 20\nQ4 20\nQ1 21\n\n\nShopee App Store\n1\n1\n1\n1\n1\n\n\nShopee PlayStore\n1\n1\n1\n1\n1\n\n\nTokopedia App Store\n2\n2\n2\n2\n2\n\n\nTokopedia PlayStore\n3\n3\n4\n4\n4\n\n\n\nSource: Southeast Asia Map of eCommerce, iPrice Group\nI would conclude that Tokopedia is a key competitor that needs to be watched closely and will prevent Shopee from exercising its take rates more liberally in the country. Furthermore, Indonesia represents the largest Southeast Asian market for e-commerce.Cross-pollination isn't just occurring across Sea's segments but also across Shopee's different e-commerce geographies.Profits from Shopee Thailand, for example, may be used to bring forth more competitive product pricing to Shopee Indonesia. Tokopedia is distinctly e-Commerce and limited to Indonesia, and likely doesn't have these internal cash generative advantages.\nLet's take a look at what's happening across the globe in Latin America. Shopee is growing like wildfire in Mexico and Brazil. The charts below represent recent data as of late May.\nSource: App Annie, Rankings by Country in the \"Shopping\" category\nBrazil and Mexico together make up for a population of ~330 million. The other e-commerce star in the category, MercadoLibre (MELI) ranks behind Shopee on Android for both Brazil and Mexico. The rankings depend on downloads instead of engagement, and MercadoLibre is often pegged to have a majority market share in Latin America as a whole (dominates Argentina). However, what the above alternative data above tell us is that Shopee has momentum in user share acquisition on an absolute basis. One can infer that more people are downloading Shopee in Mexico and Brazil as of late May compared to MercadoLibre at a faster rate. Higher downloads often translate to higher relatively higher market share gains.\nAdd all the Shopee geographies together and they represent a billion people and a combined GDP of $6.5T according to my calculations (Source for GDP:Worldometer). I reckon this is where to start when drawing up true long-term potential before narrowing down further.\nSeaMoney (Digital Financial Services)\n\nTotal Payment Volumes increased to $3.4B in Q1 21, from $1.0B during the same period last year\nQuarterly Paying Users increased to 26.1 million in Q1 21, from ~10 million during the same period last year\n\nSource:Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nSeaMoney is the umbrella under which Sea Group operates multiple Fintech Apps including Shopee Pay. Current products include payments and payment processing, but if one were to look beyond into other Fintech Apps in China or the West, digital financial services tend to coalesce into super apps. For many people living in Southeast Asia, it isn't even about disruption but rather their first introduction to financial services of any sort. Unfortunately, a glance at the Fintech environment would leave any public market investor a bit confused.\nSource:FintechNews.SG\n26.1 million quarterly paying users (QPUs), and not monthly-PUs or daily-PUs for that matter doesn't give us much granularity in data or how the segment is truly performing. $3.4B in Transaction Payment Volume is somewhat impressive, considering the last quarter saw about $12.6B in GMV on Shopee. Ultimately, the broader adoption of SeaMoney by both merchants and consumers beyond the Shopee platform is important to catalyze network large scale effects. The greater the versatility of SeaMoney across instances in real-life, the better the hold the division would have over consumers. Longer-term, offering just payments is not enough. Credit, Debit, Investing, and other financial services, all in one app have been shown to differentiate the winners from the losers in geographies like China, or in the United States with Cash App by Square (SQ).\nWhat can be said though, is that chances for continued growth, and winning market share are higher due to the group cross-pollination effects and network effects against Shopee customers. I would still see the segment through the eyes of an embedded option in the share price that would produce asymmetric reward if it does expand to more customers.\nThe Runway Ahead\nThe excerpts below were taken from a report published in late 2020 by Google, Temasek, and Bain & Company. The report highlights internet spending forecasts over six major markets in Southeast Asia: Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.\n\nSource:e-Conomy SEA 2020; by Google, Temasek, and Bain & Company\nAs a whole, the internet economy in these countries is expected to compound at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 24%, almost tripling from $105B in GMV in 2020 to $309B in 2025. This provides a sense of scale for the region and the internet opportunity that Sea currently operates in as a leader. Note that these numbers exclude Taiwan and Latin America.\nFor Digital Entertainment, Garena's Free Fire market appears to be a lot closer to saturation considering it is already one of the highest-grossing mobile games on the planet. Other Garena endeavours have a chance of success though I'd argue that \"Free Fire\"-like success is hard to come by especially in mobile gaming. Digital Financial Services is still early to call at least until it achieves broader mass adoption across the region. 26 million paying users is significant, though we'll have to give the business time until we can call it a meaningful sales contributor that in turn drives the stock price. As of now, it's a cash burn.\nThat leaves e-Commerce as the main sales driver for the company in the next 2-3 years. Here are some country-specific forecasts for e-Commerce by the same source.\nSource:e-Conomy SEA 2020, Local Highlights\nAs one would expect, Indonesia is the largest market. Vietnam is expected to compound at the fastest rate over the next few years. It's important to note that while the CAGRs are drawn in the 20-30% range, 2021 will see the highest rate while 2025 will see the lowest. 40%+ YoY SEA GMV growth for 2021 is quite likely in my opinion while 2025 could be closer to 15%.\nThe above chart uses GMV or Gross Merchandise Value. As discussed earlier, sales are a function of the take rate and the GMV. The take rate increases, the sales increase. Sea does this by dominating geographies and then deliberately increasing the take rate when network effects or the habituation of consumers on Shopee works at scale. Therefore, Sea's sales growth is set to outpace GMV expansion, especially when they widen their lead in a market. Given Latin America is also experiencing rapid Shopee adoption, it is reasonable to expect hyper-growth in the e-Commerce segment for years. The company expects 112% YoY growth for Shopee in FY2021 at the midpoint of their guidance (Source:Q4 20 Transcript).\nWeave the above pieces together, Sea has an immense growth runway. The e-Commerce opportunity indicates that the company can theoretically be in hyper-growth mode for another 2-3 years, well into 2023.\nWith an established competitive moat, if there's one company to bet on to capitalize and win on the $300B internet GMV opportunity for 2025 (not counting Latin America & Taiwan), Sea seems to be it. I expect the management will also come up with newer verticals that could expand their TAM further. Online in-app investing? travel? TV and movies? Streaming? With network effects this good, they have an unfair advantage. The management has already executed across multiple businesses and seems to deeply understand how the emerging market consumer thinks. They've also displayed evidence of tailoring apps, like Free Fire, to individual geography tastes to maximize execution. Let's look at the financials and valuation multiples to see how much of their future success is already factored in.\nGroup Financial Overview\nI previously mentioned the cash flow valley of death and how segments balance out to achieve cash flow generative growth. The company reports Adjusted EBITDA figures by segment that display similar trends. The \"adjustments\" are quite substantial compared to GAAP metrics, but they're a reasonable indicator after removing stock-based compensation, convertible interest payments, and non-core profitability generation. We're looking long-term here, so the game becomes comparing profitability to itself across time rather than other businesses. I'm more interested in trends and margin expansion rather than absolute values for now. The following chart shows how the breakdown balances out.\nSource: Author, Data from Company Filings\nThe trends were seen above follow the cash flow valley diagram. Digital Entertainment is funding Shopee and SeaMoney, and the net result (the bright pink line) is Group Adjusted EBITDA positive for the past four quarters. Going forward, I expect e-Commerce to pass its valley shortly as sales growth decelerates, and expect digital financial services to continue to burn cash at higher amounts sequentially. The group's total financial performance is encapsulated in the chart below:\nSource: Author, Data from Company Filings\nGross Profits have risen due to higher take rates in e-Commerce and improving incremental margins on Digital Entertainment. These margins would come under some pressure as Shopee will outpace Garena, and the lower-margin e-commerce will make a larger proportion of the gross profit mix. Adjusted EBITDA is under control, and while the company is unprofitable on a GAAP basis, I believe it is still fair given that the top-line is growing at triple-digit percentages. Total Revenue for Q4 has grown 12.6% QoQ and 146.7% YoY. On an LTM basis, Revenues have grown 113.7% YoY. With a long-runway ahead, and with the currently phenomenal product and sales execution, Sea Group is a financially healthy company.The profit tradeoff for growth is fair, even though it's a rarity given the sheer scale of the business.\nInvestors would take some relief in the fact that the company has amassed ~$5.8B in Cash & Equivalents on its balance sheet that would fund losses for some time. If need be, there is a profit switch in Shopee that the company can activate that will result in larger take rates to boost profitability. Sellers on the platform may have no choice in such a situation, considering the breadth, reach, and engagement on the Shopee platform and would go along with the asking price. There is a substantial moat here and the resulting pricing power can be exercised on demand to boost profitability. This isn't new information; Amazon's (AMZN) US e-commerce for example has made similar moves.\nValuation\nSource: Koyfin\nGroup Gross Profits are at the 30% range and Shopee specific metrics are expectedly lower. So a 23.7x LTM EV/S multiple is obviously huge. When contextualizing growth prospects and the excellent competitive positioning, the forward EV/S metrics are far more reasonable. According to the Koyfin database, the analyst consensus forward multiples are as follow:\n\nFY 2021 EV/S of 16.0x\nFY 2022 EV/S of 11.1x\nFY 2023 EV/S of 8.3x\n\nSource: Koyfin\nAnalysts have historically been on the side of conservatism for almost every high-growth tech company. Sea Group has almost always beaten its revenue figures though they usually fall slightly short on profitability. The 8.3x for 2023 means it's valued on Tencent-like multiples (adjusted for lower gross profits) but in three years. It is indeed a baby Tencent, and I would also argue that OTCPK:TCEHY itself is somewhat undervalued given the low sentiment surrounding regulations and foreign investments in Chinese tech. Are these multiples reasonable? And where is the upside? I believe SE's current price fair, but the upside will have to come from sustained revenue beats, continued product developments, and mass-scale user acquisition. Multiple compression may need to counter share price dilution, and then actually give us a reasonable rate of return. This is a situation where the following wisdom is applicable in my opinion:\n\n It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price-Warren Buffett\n\nIn my experience, when the quality of the company shines for a fair price, it's still worth an investment. Winners continue to win, and Sea Group is a rockstar business factoring in most qualitative aspects.Given the visionary management (Forrest Li & Co.) and what they've achieved so far, I'd put the odds in their favour.\nSpeaking of odds, there are potential catalysts that could pull the future towards us. One would hypothesise that Shopee winning in Indonesia on a more definitive basis would result in sales getting a boost from a strategic take-rate expansion. Across the planet, the Latin American story is looking impressive and shouldn't be underestimated given the size of Brazil and Mexico. That's an additional 50% e-Commerce TAM compared to Southeast Asia. SeaMoney still has a lot to prove but the network effects from Shopee should help sustain an onboarding of customers. The overall business has optionality. By that I mean, embedded options that could be triggered by a few developments and unlock share price appreciation. These are worth a premium.\nI'm currently long SE. I reckon there's still substantial outperformance potential over benchmarks though the easy alpha potential like we saw in 2020 is unlikely to present itself ever again. The bull thesis is too obvious now, everyone knows it, but it should still play out with alpha in my opinion. Every tech hedge fund in the world seems to be holding SE, and I agree with them. On the other hand, let's look at risks.\nRisks\n\nFree Fire Concentration:The mobile gaming industry is fast, dynamic, and always changing. The next great game is always around the corner and it's entirely possible that Free Fire's popularity fades and the accompanying cash generation dries up. I believe this risk has reduced over the last year, but it's still worth considering.\nCompetition:Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre in Latin America, and other internet businesses like Grab & Gojek. There's plenty of competition at multiple fronts throughout the ecosystem.\nOverly aggressive expansion strategy:Sea Group's expansion into 7-8 countries and counting demonstrates a uniquely aggressive growth strategy. While their approach has worked out so far, it may work against them in the future. Knowing when to give up in a market that doesn't play out can stop unnecessary cash burn when the prize isn't significant enough.\nSystemic Risks:As a GAAP net loss business, Sea Group is subject to higher volatility, deep drawdowns, and sector/style selloffs. The sell-off in March is a recent example.\nMacro:Regulations and geopolitical factors in the emerging market geographies are typically more volatile than those in the US. A variety of macro risks and F/X risks are present at large.\n\nEnding Notes\nConcerns about overvaluation are perhaps warranted on a short-term outlook. In this situation, I do not have a strong near-term opinion but instead, harbour conviction in the company's long-term prospects. If one were to think in years rather than months, it is apparent to me that no competitor comes close to Sea Group in its chances for dominating e-commerce market share in most of its operating geographies. Indonesia is a key country to watch as Tokopedia is still putting up a fight. I'd put the odds on Sea since Tokopedia is a vanilla e-commerce player and doesn't have the scale and cross-pollination advantage unless they merge with another giant. Latin America is also looking like it will be a meaningful push to the top-line if not near term profitability. With excellent execution, Sea Group is leveraging its competitive positioning and is winning more often than not. The cross-pollination effect is a key advantage for internal cash generation and will help sustain the relentless growth as the business captures the massive opportunity that remains.\nI imagine many experienced investors that caught the Amazon (AMZN) train early would look back on their investment as a staple component of their portfolio over the years. In my opinion, Sea Group offers a similar proposition a bit earlier in its lifecycle. Currently trading at a market cap of $130B, Sea can theoretically double in a few years once again in my opinion. Tencent in a duopolistic landscape (withBABA) features a $748B market cap across a 1.3 billion Chinese population. SE can go a third of that in a few years with a monopolistic position in Southeast Asia, scaling to a 1 billion strong emerging market population. This isn't a pure alpha opportunity as multiples have substantially expanded, but I would ballpark the company to deliver a 20%+ compounded return for investors that continue to hold it for a few years.I'm long SE.\n*****\nThanks for reading! On a separate note, I'm excited to announce that I will be releasing a Marketplace subscription service soon called The Abstract Portfolio. High growth tech investing can involve a lot of fragmented information, sentiment, and noise. The Abstract Portfolio aims to bring focus and clarity by weaving together what matters and filtering out what doesn't. The service will feature a concentrated portfolio of cherry-picked stocks backed by rigorous fundamental research, assembled to deliver high absolute returns. Stay tuned!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119971839,"gmtCreate":1622516074021,"gmtModify":1634100901608,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still green.","listText":"Still green.","text":"Still green.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119971839","repostId":"1163643126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110615334,"gmtCreate":1622448836028,"gmtModify":1634101401249,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seems longer term okays to me.","listText":"Seems longer term okays to me.","text":"Seems longer term okays to me.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110615334","repostId":"1187518687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":140555433,"gmtCreate":1625666985022,"gmtModify":1631893563349,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140555433","repostId":"2149390009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194783948,"gmtCreate":1621400853484,"gmtModify":1634189442348,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Risk-off...","listText":"Risk-off...","text":"Risk-off...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194783948","repostId":"2136999458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193533911,"gmtCreate":1620797559733,"gmtModify":1634196209494,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dropping further?","listText":"Dropping further?","text":"Dropping further?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193533911","repostId":"2134350698","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":602195959,"gmtCreate":1638978798376,"gmtModify":1638978798524,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Insider buying..","listText":"Insider buying..","text":"Insider buying..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602195959","repostId":"1149846873","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149846873","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638975974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149846873?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 23:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading<blockquote>DocuSign股价早盘上涨5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149846873","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading after DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock foll","content":"<p>DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock following massive sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign Inc.首席执行官在大规模抛售后购买了近500万美元的股票，DocuSign股价在早盘交易中上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77953caadaf709eae41dfe416c6a048\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading<blockquote>DocuSign股价早盘上涨5%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading<blockquote>DocuSign股价早盘上涨5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-08 23:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock following massive sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign Inc.首席执行官在大规模抛售后购买了近500万美元的股票，DocuSign股价在早盘交易中上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77953caadaf709eae41dfe416c6a048\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DOCU":"Docusign"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149846873","content_text":"DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading after DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock following massive sell-off.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165669725,"gmtCreate":1624128119367,"gmtModify":1631893563360,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great to hear.","listText":"Great to hear.","text":"Great to hear.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165669725","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191720062,"gmtCreate":1620909177556,"gmtModify":1634195385296,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will take some time to retrace...","listText":"Will take some time to retrace...","text":"Will take some time to retrace...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191720062","repostId":"1189186815","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150948990,"gmtCreate":1624884535910,"gmtModify":1631893563355,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks up.","listText":"Looks up.","text":"Looks up.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150948990","repostId":"1149431635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185404588,"gmtCreate":1623664499544,"gmtModify":1631893563374,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Exciting!","listText":"Exciting!","text":"Exciting!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185404588","repostId":"1146430910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190823858,"gmtCreate":1620611657674,"gmtModify":1634197723830,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Commodities rocketing this year.","listText":"Commodities rocketing this year.","text":"Commodities rocketing this year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190823858","repostId":"1196255949","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107164371,"gmtCreate":1620453830993,"gmtModify":1634198610172,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A meme&nbsp;dependent on an outspoken&nbsp;public personality's comments on a comedy sketch show...&nbsp;","listText":"A meme&nbsp;dependent on an outspoken&nbsp;public personality's comments on a comedy sketch show...&nbsp;","text":"A meme dependent on an outspoken public personality's comments on a comedy sketch show...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107164371","repostId":"1160802774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160802774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620442206,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160802774?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 10:50","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160802774","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue Un","content":"<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>Nikki Beesetti早在2017年就开始投资加密货币，并用出售她心血来潮购买的一枚比特币的收益支付了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期的费用，该收益已飙升至近2万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种模仿硬币的成败时刻，这种模仿硬币在2021年上涨了近13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti在接受MarketWatch电话采访时表示：“本周六将是狗狗币成败的关键。”</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果他真的能传达正确的信息，狗狗币就能真正起飞……否则它就会崩溃到任何它要崩溃的地方，”她说。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位25岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易员之一，他们涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，因为这种所谓的笑话资产造就了百万富翁，并引起了一些人对新兴加密货币综合体中正在形成泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持NBC深夜直播电视喜剧小品节目“周六夜现场”，他即将到来的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币最大的支持者之一。这位自封的特斯拉“技术之王”主要利用其庞大的社交媒体粉丝来抬高doge的价格，他于4月1日在推特上表示，他将使用SpaceX火箭将实体doge硬币放在真正的月球上，呼应了社交媒体将硬币价格“带到月球”的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂表示，她第一次涉足狗狗币是在马斯克去年夏天社交媒体信件的推动下，她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为3/10美分时买入了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的美元成本平均头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为Reddit等网站上狗狗币持有者的聚集点，他即将在“SNL”上亮相是加密货币市场内外备受期待的时刻，该市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来在数字资产领域一直享有笑话货币的美誉，但很难否认其飙升的价值引起了大街和华尔街的关注——至少暂时如此。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《SNL》演员兼喜剧演员大卫·斯派德(David Spade)周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于为doge制作了一部90分钟的电视广告，并补充说，也许是开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的赔率制定了许多关于马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》上的适当赌注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1.比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3.字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4.没有提到比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti表示，她最近出售了价值约8,000美元的狗狗币，购买了一双Gucci鞋、一部iPhone，并根据以太币协议提高了她在以太thar的头寸，但在其他方面一直是doge的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在50,000至100,000枚之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与doge的一些投资者不同，她并不对它具有实用性抱有幻想，而是接受了这样一种可能性：势头可能会在模仿资产中积累到一定程度，从而锻造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge没有内在价值，”比塞蒂说。“如果你和一群人相信它，价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的群体和人比以前更多。”</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，现实可能会在周日早上对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在一份研究报告中写道：“SNL之后，一旦狗狗币明显不会飙升至月球或达到备受关注的1美元水平，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃短期狗狗币押注。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币界被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>这位Oanda策略师表示：“一直致力于Doge的散户交易员可能仍然是顽固的霍德勒，因此如果没有发生卖出事件反应，我们不应该感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结局如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是一种模因货币，但有时最有趣的结果会成为现实，”比塞蒂说。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种模因货币经历了惊人的上涨。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止的涨幅约超过6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克将主持“周六夜现场”，狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 10:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>Nikki Beesetti早在2017年就开始投资加密货币，并用出售她心血来潮购买的一枚比特币的收益支付了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期的费用，该收益已飙升至近2万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种模仿硬币的成败时刻，这种模仿硬币在2021年上涨了近13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti在接受MarketWatch电话采访时表示：“本周六将是狗狗币成败的关键。”</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果他真的能传达正确的信息，狗狗币就能真正起飞……否则它就会崩溃到任何它要崩溃的地方，”她说。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位25岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易员之一，他们涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，因为这种所谓的笑话资产造就了百万富翁，并引起了一些人对新兴加密货币综合体中正在形成泡沫的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持NBC深夜直播电视喜剧小品节目“周六夜现场”，他即将到来的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币最大的支持者之一。这位自封的特斯拉“技术之王”主要利用其庞大的社交媒体粉丝来抬高doge的价格，他于4月1日在推特上表示，他将使用SpaceX火箭将实体doge硬币放在真正的月球上，呼应了社交媒体将硬币价格“带到月球”的目标。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂表示，她第一次涉足狗狗币是在马斯克去年夏天社交媒体信件的推动下，她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为3/10美分时买入了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的美元成本平均头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为Reddit等网站上狗狗币持有者的聚集点，他即将在“SNL”上亮相是加密货币市场内外备受期待的时刻，该市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来在数字资产领域一直享有笑话货币的美誉，但很难否认其飙升的价值引起了大街和华尔街的关注——至少暂时如此。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《SNL》演员兼喜剧演员大卫·斯派德(David Spade)周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于为doge制作了一部90分钟的电视广告，并补充说，也许是开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的赔率制定了许多关于马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》上的适当赌注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1.比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3.字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4.没有提到比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti表示，她最近出售了价值约8,000美元的狗狗币，购买了一双Gucci鞋、一部iPhone，并根据以太币协议提高了她在以太thar的头寸，但在其他方面一直是doge的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在50,000至100,000枚之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与doge的一些投资者不同，她并不对它具有实用性抱有幻想，而是接受了这样一种可能性：势头可能会在模仿资产中积累到一定程度，从而锻造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge没有内在价值，”比塞蒂说。“如果你和一群人相信它，价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的群体和人比以前更多。”</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，现实可能会在周日早上对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在一份研究报告中写道：“SNL之后，一旦狗狗币明显不会飙升至月球或达到备受关注的1美元水平，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃短期狗狗币押注。”笔记。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币界被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>这位Oanda策略师表示：“一直致力于Doge的散户交易员可能仍然是顽固的霍德勒，因此如果没有发生卖出事件反应，我们不应该感到惊讶。”</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结局如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“这只是一种模因货币，但有时最有趣的结果会成为现实，”比塞蒂说。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种模因货币经历了惊人的上涨。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止的涨幅约超过6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160802774","content_text":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin ,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn cheers and jeers.Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge, tweeting back on April 1 that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin and Ethereum ,the two largest cryptos in the world.Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:1. Bitcoin: -2002. Dogecoin: +6003. FIELD: +4504. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term Dogecoin bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained about over 6% so far this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101049461,"gmtCreate":1619832936653,"gmtModify":1631884484248,"author":{"id":"3582063611426818","authorId":"3582063611426818","name":"ditti","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2566ca38eea90f53931296c3d19d66e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582063611426818","idStr":"3582063611426818"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nasdaq looking weak...","listText":"Nasdaq looking weak...","text":"Nasdaq looking 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