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2021-08-04

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2021-08-04

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2021-08-02

Up

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2021-07-31

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This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的背离是对自满的警告</blockquote>

2021-07-30

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2021-07-29

Hi

Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-29

H

Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉AI Day将于8月19日</blockquote>

2021-07-29

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2021-07-28

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r":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806519276","repostId":"1198838390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198838390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627656767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198838390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的背离是对自满的警告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198838390","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far differe","content":"<p>S&amp;P 500’s core outlook remains bullish</p><p><blockquote>标普500的核心前景仍然看涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9a9d5fb12a2f91c146699e5be54c5c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数的表现与“平均”股票截然不同。这种情况已经持续了一段时间，不一定是牛市“杀手”，但肯定不是最健康的环境。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P,the NASDAQ-100&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔指数、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均处于或接近历史高点。但罗素2000指数落后，反映出整体市场内功不佳。内部测量显示看跌期权买盘相当多，多日广度较差，52周新低甚至多于新高。</blockquote></p><p> What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p><p><blockquote>推动SPX和窄基指数的是数量相对较少的大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p><p><blockquote>类似的故事在过去已经发生过很多次——有些市场结果很糟糕，有些则没有那么糟糕。但在大多数股票都落后的情况下，维持牛市是极其困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p><p><blockquote>两个相当值得注意的事件，但肯定不是最近发生的，是1)1973年的“漂亮五十”股票，它们似乎“无视地心引力”，在市场其他部分跌跌撞撞的情况下继续上涨；最终，这种情况恶化为1974年的熊市，以及2）1994年的“隐形熊市”，小盘股在这一年的大部分时间里都在下跌，但SPX在此期间基本持平；从来没有<i>什么</i>该指数大幅下跌，直到年底一场不相关的丑闻（奥兰治县灾难）导致该指数短暂下跌。</blockquote></p><p> This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况并非不可逆转。如果广度提高，它可以“纠正”自己。这仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍处于看涨模式，因为它正在上涨并高于支撑位。本周低点4370附近有小幅支撑。然后在4233点（7月低点）下方有更重要的支撑。只要SPX保持在该水平之上，图表仍将呈现看涨的外观。4160点和4060点的进一步支撑位经过了很好的测试，但远低于当前水平，用处不大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p><p><blockquote>如随附的SPX图表所示，发出麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号（图表右上角的绿色“S”）。此外，随着标准普尔指数20天历史波动率已升至11%以上，现在也出现了已实现的波动性卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，因为它们仍在上升。这表明过去一个月看跌期权买盘相对较多。从附图中可以看出，标准比率的上升速度快于加权比率，但两者都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&amp;P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p><p><blockquote>广度一直是当前市场正在经历的内部问题的最突出指标。当SPX创下历史新高时，它已经连续多天为负值。因此，我们的广度振荡器落后于市场。是的，它们发出了买入信号，但远未达到纳斯达克100指数、标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数处于或接近高点时预期的积极水平。</blockquote></p><p> There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，周三有一丝小幅改善，当天大盘持平至下跌，但广度是积极的。我们最近没有看到那么多，但如果这种情况继续下去，这将对股市有利。</blockquote></p><p> The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p><p><blockquote>累积宽度振荡器继续滞后，这是负背离的“官方”衡量标准。截至6月11日（含6月11日）的13个交易日中，累计宽度指标有10个创下历史新高。从那以后，他们没有创下一个新的历史新高。与此同时，自该日以来，SPX已连续13个交易日创下历史新高。<i>那个</i>是负背离。</blockquote></p><p> It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过改进累积宽度指标来克服——这是今年早些时候完成的。但是，就目前而言，这种负面分歧仍然是一个警告信号，需要保持警惕，不要自满。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，就纳斯达克数据和“仅股票”数据而言，52周新低多于52周新高。然而，我们使用纽约证券交易所作为指标，新高设法保持对新低的微弱领先。因此，该指标虽然走弱，但仍处于看涨状态。</blockquote></p><p> The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX&nbsp;and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>市场中没有表现出这些负面趋势的一个领域是隐含波动率——VIX及其交易产品。7月20日的VIX“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。事实上，自5月21日以来，除了两个交易日外，一直存在连续的“尖峰”买入信号。此外，由于200日移动平均线仍在下降，VIX的趋势仍然向下，并且远高于VIX 20日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然对股票有利。近月8月VIX期货的交易价格相对于VIX有相当大的溢价，VIX期货期限结构向上倾斜。此外，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构向上倾斜。这些加起来对股市来说是一个看涨的情景。8月份VIX期货的交易价格高于9月份VIX期货，这将表明大盘面临任何危险，但这种危险并非迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p> So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于SPX和VIX的趋势，市场的“核心”前景仍然看涨。是的，内部人士警告不要自满，因此我们可以针对这个“核心”看涨位置发出卖出信号，但只要SPX保持在4233点的支撑位之上，多头仍然占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：D.R。霍顿</b></blockquote></p><p> D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p><p><blockquote>D.R.HortonDHI,+0.50%从其看跌-看涨期权比率图表中发出了新的买入信号，但我们希望这也能得到上行突破的证实。从下图中，人们可以看到看跌-看涨期权比率图上的局部最大值处于极高的水平（绿色“B”），这是对该股极度悲观的一个例子，尽管它自5月初以来的回调并没有那么陡峭。</blockquote></p><p> Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p><p><blockquote>看跌-看涨期权比率信号本质上是相反的，因此如果公众极度悲观，我们希望保持乐观。这将以看涨期权买入的形式实现，但前提是DHI能够收于93阻力位上方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果DHI收于93上方，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后买2 DHI 9月（17日）92.5评级</b></blockquote></p><p> DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p><p><blockquote>DHI目前的交易价格高于93，但我们希望在建立多头看涨期权头寸之前看到它接近93。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p><p><blockquote>这是唯一的新建议。最近没有太多的收购传闻活动，除了<b>塞尔纳公司。</b>CERN，+1.38%然而，我们最近才退出了Cerner的头寸，因为收购传闻已经存在很长时间，以至于超出了我们评级的到期日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙3杜克8月（20日）100评级：</b>将尾随止动件提升至102。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长4 DBX 8月（13日）30.5评级：</b>将跟踪止损提高至30.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p><p><blockquote><b>Long 1 Rapt 8月20日30日看涨期权：</b>你自己的止损点保持在26。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）431看涨期权：</b>该头寸是根据7月20日VIX“尖峰”买入信号买入的。自该日起继续持有22天。如果VIX在任何三天内上涨3.00点或以上，则使用收盘价，该头寸将被止损。如果止损，则在随后的买入信号中以平价看涨期权重新入场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Long 2 HOLX 9月（17日）65评级：</b>自己将跟踪止损提高到68。此外，如果止损点交易在75，则向上滚动至<b>75年9月17日评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）433看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）408看跌：</b>该价差是根据仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号买入的。那些卖出信号仍然存在，所以继续持有这个价差。我们将每周更新情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p><p><blockquote><b>长0 AVCT 8月（20日）5评级：</b>当美国虚拟云技术公司AVCT,-1.30%于7月26日收盘低于5时，这些评级被停止。该股因债务削减的消息而开始走弱，然后在该公司申请出售更多股票后大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙5星8月（20日）22.5评级：</b>将止损提高到22.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p><p><blockquote><b>长5华大智造8月（20日）10评级：</b>最初不间断地持有该头寸，看看收购要约是否能够实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的背离是对自满的警告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的背离是对自满的警告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 22:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>S&amp;P 500’s core outlook remains bullish</p><p><blockquote>标普500的核心前景仍然看涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9a9d5fb12a2f91c146699e5be54c5c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数的表现与“平均”股票截然不同。这种情况已经持续了一段时间，不一定是牛市“杀手”，但肯定不是最健康的环境。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P,the NASDAQ-100&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔指数、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均处于或接近历史高点。但罗素2000指数落后，反映出整体市场内功不佳。内部测量显示看跌期权买盘相当多，多日广度较差，52周新低甚至多于新高。</blockquote></p><p> What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p><p><blockquote>推动SPX和窄基指数的是数量相对较少的大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p><p><blockquote>类似的故事在过去已经发生过很多次——有些市场结果很糟糕，有些则没有那么糟糕。但在大多数股票都落后的情况下，维持牛市是极其困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p><p><blockquote>两个相当值得注意的事件，但肯定不是最近发生的，是1)1973年的“漂亮五十”股票，它们似乎“无视地心引力”，在市场其他部分跌跌撞撞的情况下继续上涨；最终，这种情况恶化为1974年的熊市，以及2）1994年的“隐形熊市”，小盘股在这一年的大部分时间里都在下跌，但SPX在此期间基本持平；从来没有<i>什么</i>该指数大幅下跌，直到年底一场不相关的丑闻（奥兰治县灾难）导致该指数短暂下跌。</blockquote></p><p> This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况并非不可逆转。如果广度提高，它可以“纠正”自己。这仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍处于看涨模式，因为它正在上涨并高于支撑位。本周低点4370附近有小幅支撑。然后在4233点（7月低点）下方有更重要的支撑。只要SPX保持在该水平之上，图表仍将呈现看涨的外观。4160点和4060点的进一步支撑位经过了很好的测试，但远低于当前水平，用处不大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p><p><blockquote>如随附的SPX图表所示，发出麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号（图表右上角的绿色“S”）。此外，随着标准普尔指数20天历史波动率已升至11%以上，现在也出现了已实现的波动性卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，因为它们仍在上升。这表明过去一个月看跌期权买盘相对较多。从附图中可以看出，标准比率的上升速度快于加权比率，但两者都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&amp;P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p><p><blockquote>广度一直是当前市场正在经历的内部问题的最突出指标。当SPX创下历史新高时，它已经连续多天为负值。因此，我们的广度振荡器落后于市场。是的，它们发出了买入信号，但远未达到纳斯达克100指数、标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数处于或接近高点时预期的积极水平。</blockquote></p><p> There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，周三有一丝小幅改善，当天大盘持平至下跌，但广度是积极的。我们最近没有看到那么多，但如果这种情况继续下去，这将对股市有利。</blockquote></p><p> The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p><p><blockquote>累积宽度振荡器继续滞后，这是负背离的“官方”衡量标准。截至6月11日（含6月11日）的13个交易日中，累计宽度指标有10个创下历史新高。从那以后，他们没有创下一个新的历史新高。与此同时，自该日以来，SPX已连续13个交易日创下历史新高。<i>那个</i>是负背离。</blockquote></p><p> It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过改进累积宽度指标来克服——这是今年早些时候完成的。但是，就目前而言，这种负面分歧仍然是一个警告信号，需要保持警惕，不要自满。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，就纳斯达克数据和“仅股票”数据而言，52周新低多于52周新高。然而，我们使用纽约证券交易所作为指标，新高设法保持对新低的微弱领先。因此，该指标虽然走弱，但仍处于看涨状态。</blockquote></p><p> The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX&nbsp;and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>市场中没有表现出这些负面趋势的一个领域是隐含波动率——VIX及其交易产品。7月20日的VIX“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。事实上，自5月21日以来，除了两个交易日外，一直存在连续的“尖峰”买入信号。此外，由于200日移动平均线仍在下降，VIX的趋势仍然向下，并且远高于VIX 20日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然对股票有利。近月8月VIX期货的交易价格相对于VIX有相当大的溢价，VIX期货期限结构向上倾斜。此外，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构向上倾斜。这些加起来对股市来说是一个看涨的情景。8月份VIX期货的交易价格高于9月份VIX期货，这将表明大盘面临任何危险，但这种危险并非迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p> So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于SPX和VIX的趋势，市场的“核心”前景仍然看涨。是的，内部人士警告不要自满，因此我们可以针对这个“核心”看涨位置发出卖出信号，但只要SPX保持在4233点的支撑位之上，多头仍然占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：D.R。霍顿</b></blockquote></p><p> D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p><p><blockquote>D.R.HortonDHI,+0.50%从其看跌-看涨期权比率图表中发出了新的买入信号，但我们希望这也能得到上行突破的证实。从下图中，人们可以看到看跌-看涨期权比率图上的局部最大值处于极高的水平（绿色“B”），这是对该股极度悲观的一个例子，尽管它自5月初以来的回调并没有那么陡峭。</blockquote></p><p> Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p><p><blockquote>看跌-看涨期权比率信号本质上是相反的，因此如果公众极度悲观，我们希望保持乐观。这将以看涨期权买入的形式实现，但前提是DHI能够收于93阻力位上方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果DHI收于93上方，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后买2 DHI 9月（17日）92.5评级</b></blockquote></p><p> DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p><p><blockquote>DHI目前的交易价格高于93，但我们希望在建立多头看涨期权头寸之前看到它接近93。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p><p><blockquote>这是唯一的新建议。最近没有太多的收购传闻活动，除了<b>塞尔纳公司。</b>CERN，+1.38%然而，我们最近才退出了Cerner的头寸，因为收购传闻已经存在很长时间，以至于超出了我们评级的到期日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙3杜克8月（20日）100评级：</b>将尾随止动件提升至102。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长4 DBX 8月（13日）30.5评级：</b>将跟踪止损提高至30.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p><p><blockquote><b>Long 1 Rapt 8月20日30日看涨期权：</b>你自己的止损点保持在26。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）431看涨期权：</b>该头寸是根据7月20日VIX“尖峰”买入信号买入的。自该日起继续持有22天。如果VIX在任何三天内上涨3.00点或以上，则使用收盘价，该头寸将被止损。如果止损，则在随后的买入信号中以平价看涨期权重新入场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Long 2 HOLX 9月（17日）65评级：</b>自己将跟踪止损提高到68。此外，如果止损点交易在75，则向上滚动至<b>75年9月17日评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）433看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）408看跌：</b>该价差是根据仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号买入的。那些卖出信号仍然存在，所以继续持有这个价差。我们将每周更新情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p><p><blockquote><b>长0 AVCT 8月（20日）5评级：</b>当美国虚拟云技术公司AVCT,-1.30%于7月26日收盘低于5时，这些评级被停止。该股因债务削减的消息而开始走弱，然后在该公司申请出售更多股票后大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙5星8月（20日）22.5评级：</b>将止损提高到22.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p><p><blockquote><b>长5华大智造8月（20日）10评级：</b>最初不间断地持有该头寸，看看收购要约是否能够实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198838390","content_text":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.\nThe S&P,the NASDAQ-100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.\nWhat is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.\nSimilar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.\nTwo rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there neverwasmuch of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.\nThis situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.\nThe SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.\nThere was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.\nThe cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.Thatis a negative divergence.\nIt can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.\nOver the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.\nThe one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.\nSo, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.\nNew Recommendation: D.R. Horton\nD.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.\nPut-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.\nIF DHI closes above 93,\nTHEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls\nDHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThat is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except forCerner Corp.CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 102.\nLong 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.\nLong 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:The stop yourself remains at 26.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.\nLong 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to theSept (17th) 75 calls.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.\nLong 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.\nLong 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:Raise the stop to 22.20.\nLong 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806083077,"gmtCreate":1627616644699,"gmtModify":1633757724295,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806083077","repostId":"2155380581","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808619687,"gmtCreate":1627572846349,"gmtModify":1633758145512,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808619687","repostId":"1141389413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141389413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627558905,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141389413?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 19:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141389413","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for div","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.</li>  <li>Dividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.</li>  <li>Amazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.</li>  <li>Amazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92fdb38b961293c938988e9eaeb7df1d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊正在快速增长并产生稳定的自由现金流，但这些现金流目前尚未用于支付股息。</li><li>股息支付可能不会对总回报产生太大影响，而且亚马逊可以将其现金流用于增长型投资，这似乎是目前更好的主意。</li><li>亚马逊最终会在某个时候成熟，亚马逊似乎有可能在那个时候遵循苹果向所有者返还现金的策略。</li><li>亚马逊是一个伟大的增长故事，但它的股票也很昂贵。从长远来看，回报应该是稳健的，但不会极高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司（AMZN）在过去一直是一项伟大的投资，由于强劲的增长率和漫长的增长跑道，它在未来也可能是一项可靠的投资——尽管估值相当高。由于一些收益投资者确实想知道亚马逊是否会支付股息，我们将尝试在本报告中评估这个问题，并为亚马逊股东展示一种立即从投资中产生收入的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊目前支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，这个经常被提出的问题的答案显然是否定的。亚马逊不支付任何股息，从未支付过任何股息，高管也没有任何声明表明亚马逊即将在短期内支付股息。就目前的状态而言，亚马逊是一种纯粹的资本增值业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should Amazon Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊应该支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案并不那么容易，因为这取决于你的观点。一些持有亚马逊股票但通常更喜欢投资创收股票的股东肯定希望看到亚马逊宣布股息。另一方面，成长型投资者会指出这样一个事实，即股息收益率无论如何都会相当低，亚马逊可以将其现金流用于其他方面，例如。通过增长资本支出或收购其他公司。人们当然可以为亚马逊等成长型公司投资其业务以推动未来增长而不是支付股息提供理由。</blockquote></p><p> I personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:</p><p><blockquote>我个人喜欢投资创收股票，但不仅仅如此，所以我也拥有一些资本增值股票，包括亚马逊。我不认为亚马逊支付股息会是一个巨大的优势，因为我认为亚马逊不是那种从支付股息中受益匪浅的公司。我还认为，只有当公司有大量剩余现金流时才应该支付股息，因为支付通过债务融资的股息不会为股东创造价值。看看亚马逊的现金流，我们看到以下情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb9d03526543be149e8628c2939208d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的自由现金流市盈率为83倍，自由现金流收益率为1.2%。无论如何，以股息的形式支付所有现金流都是不可取的，因此如果AMZN支付其自由现金流的50%，其股息收益率将仅为0.6%。到目前为止，这一数字还不足以吸引大量收益投资者购买该股票，也不会对总回报产生有意义的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.</p><p><blockquote>收益率将明显低于投资者从大盘（SPDR标普500指数ETF）获得的1.3%或房地产（VNQ）或公用事业（XLU）等收入投资者友好行业获得的3%。因此，我认为，如果亚马逊开始支付股息，不会有明显的好处。另一方面，即使股息收益率仅为0.6%，每年也会消耗超过100亿美元的现金，而这些现金将无法用于投资。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的核心业务并不具有高利润的性质，但该公司通过投资额外的高价值业务（例如云计算）成功扩大了规模。如果亚马逊每年支付数十亿美元的股息，这些投资将是不可能的，或者只会规模较小。只要亚马逊的管理团队能够找到投资现金获利的方法，这可能是创造股东价值的更好选择。</blockquote></p><p> This does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着事情不会随着时间的推移而改变，因为亚马逊会在某个时候成熟，就像许多其他公司一样。例如，苹果（AAPL）最终开始支付股息，当时其现金流增长如此之大，以至于无法将其全部再投资并获利。同样的事情也很容易在某个时候发生在亚马逊身上，但目前情况似乎并非如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for&nbsp;$8.5 billion&nbsp;in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).</p><p><blockquote>多年来，亚马逊一直在投资大量收购，例如米高梅（OTC：MGMB），该公司将在两个月前宣布的交易中以85亿美元的价格被收购。此举将增强亚马逊Prime Video细分市场的原创内容产品和内容创作能力，这反过来将有助于吸引更多用户，并使亚马逊与迪士尼(DIS)和Netflix(NFLX)相比更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> Making these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，与以远低于1%的微不足道的收益率将这些数十亿美元返还给股东相比，进行此类战略收购的目标是使公司获得市场份额和未来增长，可能更有用。去年收购自动驾驶汽车科技公司Zoox是另一个非常符合亚马逊整体战略的收购例子。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to&nbsp;possibly enter the robo-taxi market&nbsp;on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊能够在某个时候推出自动送货车辆，它自然会受益匪浅，因为这可以改善其成本状况，并允许更快的送货时间。花钱增强亚马逊在这一领域的能力是有意义的，而且它使亚马逊有可能在此基础上进入机器人出租车市场。将AMZN为Zoox支付的12亿美元支付给股东，相当于0.07%的极小收益率——换句话说，股东基本上不会从中获得任何东西。</blockquote></p><p> It should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，引入股息支付可能有一个好处。如果亚马逊今天开始支付股息，即使利率非常低，它也可能开始建立股息增长记录，这可能会在未来某个时候，当增长放缓而派息增长时，就会出现。方便。一些投资者被连续10年、20年、25年或更长时间提高股息的股票所吸引，因此今天开始建立这一记录可能会带来潜在的未来好处，尽管不是在短期内。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为亚马逊公司今天不应该支付股息，因为增长仍然应该是像亚马逊这样的公司的首要任务。如果亚马逊计划最终成为定期股息支付者，那么引入非常小的股息以建立股息增长记录可能是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Create Your Own Income Using Options</b></p><p><blockquote><b>使用期权创造自己的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的股票可能会波动，这使得用户可以使用期权策略（例如出售担保评级）来创造收入。</blockquote></p><p> If, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one&nbsp;call option contract&nbsp;with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果投资者拥有100股Amazon股票，并出售一份执行价为4,500美元、到期日为2022年1月的看涨期权期权合约，则投资者将获得每股46美元，即总计4,600美元。相对于当前363,000美元的投资价值，相当于1.3%的现金回报率。同样的过程可以在半年后再次进行，这样年产量将达到2.6%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Using this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.</p><p><blockquote>因此，使用这种策略，投资者可以创造出远高于当今大盘的收益率。该策略的缺点是股票可能会被回调，从而限制了潜在的上涨空间。然而，如果股价到1月份突破4,500美元，然后就会被回调，那么上涨空间仍将为24%。</blockquote></p><p> The strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.</p><p><blockquote>该策略也只有在您持有至少100股AMZN股票的情况下才能有效，由于AMZN的每股价格较高，这需要巨大的投资组合规模。尽管如此，这种策略对于一些喜欢拥有亚马逊但确实想要或需要从投资中获得一些收入的投资者来说可能很有用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:</p><p><blockquote>我相信，亚马逊公司是一家优质公司，拥有巨大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。它处于有利地位，可以利用云计算、在线购物和在线广告等大趋势。另一方面，股票相当昂贵，易手的估值明显高于大多数其他股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf764ff4b0eca336f5b0f39fc149329\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated&nbsp;that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.</p><p><blockquote>按照今年预期净利润的66倍和明年利润的50倍计算，AMZN远非便宜货。还值得注意的是，过去几个月估值有所扩大，3月份股价市盈率下降了20%。几周前，我估计亚马逊从长远来看可以带来高个位数的回报，这并非没有吸引力。但我相信，股票未来不会产生我们过去几年看到的回报。AMZN是一个优质选择，优质公司每年7%-8%的回报率不容小觑，但AMZN目前有点太贵，无法获得强烈买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为亚马逊更接近买入而不是卖出，如果估值回升一点，它可能会非常有吸引力——例如。3月份的交易价格为3,000美元。当然，亚马逊是否是您投资组合的好选择取决于您的投资目标、时间范围和风险承受能力，但我相信，对于那些想要参与其中之一的人来说，亚马逊的股票是可靠的持有和潜在的买入。当今可以投资的最佳增长故事。</blockquote></p><p> It is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于亚马逊的高估值，其股价很可能在近期或中期下跌。我们在过去不时看到这种情况，因此，如果您想最大限度地获得更有利的入场价格的机会，在入场或扩大头寸之前等待最终回调可能是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 19:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.</li>  <li>Dividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.</li>  <li>Amazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.</li>  <li>Amazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92fdb38b961293c938988e9eaeb7df1d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊正在快速增长并产生稳定的自由现金流，但这些现金流目前尚未用于支付股息。</li><li>股息支付可能不会对总回报产生太大影响，而且亚马逊可以将其现金流用于增长型投资，这似乎是目前更好的主意。</li><li>亚马逊最终会在某个时候成熟，亚马逊似乎有可能在那个时候遵循苹果向所有者返还现金的策略。</li><li>亚马逊是一个伟大的增长故事，但它的股票也很昂贵。从长远来看，回报应该是稳健的，但不会极高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司（AMZN）在过去一直是一项伟大的投资，由于强劲的增长率和漫长的增长跑道，它在未来也可能是一项可靠的投资——尽管估值相当高。由于一些收益投资者确实想知道亚马逊是否会支付股息，我们将尝试在本报告中评估这个问题，并为亚马逊股东展示一种立即从投资中产生收入的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊目前支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，这个经常被提出的问题的答案显然是否定的。亚马逊不支付任何股息，从未支付过任何股息，高管也没有任何声明表明亚马逊即将在短期内支付股息。就目前的状态而言，亚马逊是一种纯粹的资本增值业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should Amazon Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊应该支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案并不那么容易，因为这取决于你的观点。一些持有亚马逊股票但通常更喜欢投资创收股票的股东肯定希望看到亚马逊宣布股息。另一方面，成长型投资者会指出这样一个事实，即股息收益率无论如何都会相当低，亚马逊可以将其现金流用于其他方面，例如。通过增长资本支出或收购其他公司。人们当然可以为亚马逊等成长型公司投资其业务以推动未来增长而不是支付股息提供理由。</blockquote></p><p> I personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:</p><p><blockquote>我个人喜欢投资创收股票，但不仅仅如此，所以我也拥有一些资本增值股票，包括亚马逊。我不认为亚马逊支付股息会是一个巨大的优势，因为我认为亚马逊不是那种从支付股息中受益匪浅的公司。我还认为，只有当公司有大量剩余现金流时才应该支付股息，因为支付通过债务融资的股息不会为股东创造价值。看看亚马逊的现金流，我们看到以下情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb9d03526543be149e8628c2939208d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的自由现金流市盈率为83倍，自由现金流收益率为1.2%。无论如何，以股息的形式支付所有现金流都是不可取的，因此如果AMZN支付其自由现金流的50%，其股息收益率将仅为0.6%。到目前为止，这一数字还不足以吸引大量收益投资者购买该股票，也不会对总回报产生有意义的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.</p><p><blockquote>收益率将明显低于投资者从大盘（SPDR标普500指数ETF）获得的1.3%或房地产（VNQ）或公用事业（XLU）等收入投资者友好行业获得的3%。因此，我认为，如果亚马逊开始支付股息，不会有明显的好处。另一方面，即使股息收益率仅为0.6%，每年也会消耗超过100亿美元的现金，而这些现金将无法用于投资。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的核心业务并不具有高利润的性质，但该公司通过投资额外的高价值业务（例如云计算）成功扩大了规模。如果亚马逊每年支付数十亿美元的股息，这些投资将是不可能的，或者只会规模较小。只要亚马逊的管理团队能够找到投资现金获利的方法，这可能是创造股东价值的更好选择。</blockquote></p><p> This does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着事情不会随着时间的推移而改变，因为亚马逊会在某个时候成熟，就像许多其他公司一样。例如，苹果（AAPL）最终开始支付股息，当时其现金流增长如此之大，以至于无法将其全部再投资并获利。同样的事情也很容易在某个时候发生在亚马逊身上，但目前情况似乎并非如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for&nbsp;$8.5 billion&nbsp;in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).</p><p><blockquote>多年来，亚马逊一直在投资大量收购，例如米高梅（OTC：MGMB），该公司将在两个月前宣布的交易中以85亿美元的价格被收购。此举将增强亚马逊Prime Video细分市场的原创内容产品和内容创作能力，这反过来将有助于吸引更多用户，并使亚马逊与迪士尼(DIS)和Netflix(NFLX)相比更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> Making these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，与以远低于1%的微不足道的收益率将这些数十亿美元返还给股东相比，进行此类战略收购的目标是使公司获得市场份额和未来增长，可能更有用。去年收购自动驾驶汽车科技公司Zoox是另一个非常符合亚马逊整体战略的收购例子。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to&nbsp;possibly enter the robo-taxi market&nbsp;on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊能够在某个时候推出自动送货车辆，它自然会受益匪浅，因为这可以改善其成本状况，并允许更快的送货时间。花钱增强亚马逊在这一领域的能力是有意义的，而且它使亚马逊有可能在此基础上进入机器人出租车市场。将AMZN为Zoox支付的12亿美元支付给股东，相当于0.07%的极小收益率——换句话说，股东基本上不会从中获得任何东西。</blockquote></p><p> It should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，引入股息支付可能有一个好处。如果亚马逊今天开始支付股息，即使利率非常低，它也可能开始建立股息增长记录，这可能会在未来某个时候，当增长放缓而派息增长时，就会出现。方便。一些投资者被连续10年、20年、25年或更长时间提高股息的股票所吸引，因此今天开始建立这一记录可能会带来潜在的未来好处，尽管不是在短期内。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为亚马逊公司今天不应该支付股息，因为增长仍然应该是像亚马逊这样的公司的首要任务。如果亚马逊计划最终成为定期股息支付者，那么引入非常小的股息以建立股息增长记录可能是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Create Your Own Income Using Options</b></p><p><blockquote><b>使用期权创造自己的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的股票可能会波动，这使得用户可以使用期权策略（例如出售担保评级）来创造收入。</blockquote></p><p> If, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one&nbsp;call option contract&nbsp;with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果投资者拥有100股Amazon股票，并出售一份执行价为4,500美元、到期日为2022年1月的看涨期权期权合约，则投资者将获得每股46美元，即总计4,600美元。相对于当前363,000美元的投资价值，相当于1.3%的现金回报率。同样的过程可以在半年后再次进行，这样年产量将达到2.6%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Using this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.</p><p><blockquote>因此，使用这种策略，投资者可以创造出远高于当今大盘的收益率。该策略的缺点是股票可能会被回调，从而限制了潜在的上涨空间。然而，如果股价到1月份突破4,500美元，然后就会被回调，那么上涨空间仍将为24%。</blockquote></p><p> The strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.</p><p><blockquote>该策略也只有在您持有至少100股AMZN股票的情况下才能有效，由于AMZN的每股价格较高，这需要巨大的投资组合规模。尽管如此，这种策略对于一些喜欢拥有亚马逊但确实想要或需要从投资中获得一些收入的投资者来说可能很有用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:</p><p><blockquote>我相信，亚马逊公司是一家优质公司，拥有巨大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。它处于有利地位，可以利用云计算、在线购物和在线广告等大趋势。另一方面，股票相当昂贵，易手的估值明显高于大多数其他股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf764ff4b0eca336f5b0f39fc149329\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated&nbsp;that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.</p><p><blockquote>按照今年预期净利润的66倍和明年利润的50倍计算，AMZN远非便宜货。还值得注意的是，过去几个月估值有所扩大，3月份股价市盈率下降了20%。几周前，我估计亚马逊从长远来看可以带来高个位数的回报，这并非没有吸引力。但我相信，股票未来不会产生我们过去几年看到的回报。AMZN是一个优质选择，优质公司每年7%-8%的回报率不容小觑，但AMZN目前有点太贵，无法获得强烈买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为亚马逊更接近买入而不是卖出，如果估值回升一点，它可能会非常有吸引力——例如。3月份的交易价格为3,000美元。当然，亚马逊是否是您投资组合的好选择取决于您的投资目标、时间范围和风险承受能力，但我相信，对于那些想要参与其中之一的人来说，亚马逊的股票是可靠的持有和潜在的买入。当今可以投资的最佳增长故事。</blockquote></p><p> It is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于亚马逊的高估值，其股价很可能在近期或中期下跌。我们在过去不时看到这种情况，因此，如果您想最大限度地获得更有利的入场价格的机会，在入场或扩大头寸之前等待最终回调可能是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141389413","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.\nDividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.\nAmazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.\nAmazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.\n\nmarekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.\nDoes Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.\nShould Amazon Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.\nI personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:\nData by YCharts\nThe company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.\nThe yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.\nAmazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.\nThis does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.\nAmazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for $8.5 billion in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).\nMaking these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.\nAmazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to possibly enter the robo-taxi market on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.\nIt should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.\nOverall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.\nCreate Your Own Income Using Options\nAmazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.\nIf, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one call option contract with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.\nUsing this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.\nThe strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.\nIs Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAmazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:\nData by YCharts\nAt 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.\nAmazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.\nIt is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808637511,"gmtCreate":1627572787233,"gmtModify":1633758146593,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808637511","repostId":"1179174010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179174010","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627572541,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179174010?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉AI Day将于8月19日</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179174010","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19.While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self","content":"<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>在Elon Musk确认特斯拉AI Day将于8月19日举行后，特斯拉股价飙升逾5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉CEO Elon Musk周四通过推文证实，该公司将于8月19日举办AI Day。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司没有提供人工智能活动的细节，但马斯克在6月21日的一条推文中表示，该活动“将回顾特斯拉人工智能软件和硬件的进展，包括训练和推理”，其目的是招聘。</blockquote></p><p> The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p><p><blockquote>AI盛会的焦点很可能围绕着特斯拉的自动驾驶技术。尽管该系统被命名为全自动驾驶（FSD），但该软件仍处于beta测试阶段，该公司在SEC文件中表示，它尚未完全自动驾驶。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这一领域的招聘工作旨在吸引机器学习和计算机视觉方面的专家，以及神经网络专家。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉AI Day将于8月19日</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉AI Day将于8月19日</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-29 23:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>在Elon Musk确认特斯拉AI Day将于8月19日举行后，特斯拉股价飙升逾5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉CEO Elon Musk周四通过推文证实，该公司将于8月19日举办AI Day。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司没有提供人工智能活动的细节，但马斯克在6月21日的一条推文中表示，该活动“将回顾特斯拉人工智能软件和硬件的进展，包括训练和推理”，其目的是招聘。</blockquote></p><p> The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p><p><blockquote>AI盛会的焦点很可能围绕着特斯拉的自动驾驶技术。尽管该系统被命名为全自动驾驶（FSD），但该软件仍处于beta测试阶段，该公司在SEC文件中表示，它尚未完全自动驾驶。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这一领域的招聘工作旨在吸引机器学习和计算机视觉方面的专家，以及神经网络专家。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179174010","content_text":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.\n\nTesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. \nWhile the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.\nThe focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.\nTesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801401670,"gmtCreate":1627525738490,"gmtModify":1633764111406,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"G","listText":"G","text":"G","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801401670","repostId":"1171529765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801190486,"gmtCreate":1627485979945,"gmtModify":1633764512834,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hjmm","listText":"Hjmm","text":"Hjmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801190486","repostId":"1190150353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":801190486,"gmtCreate":1627485979945,"gmtModify":1633764512834,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hjmm","listText":"Hjmm","text":"Hjmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801190486","repostId":"1190150353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806083077,"gmtCreate":1627616644699,"gmtModify":1633757724295,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806083077","repostId":"2155380581","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801401670,"gmtCreate":1627525738490,"gmtModify":1633764111406,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"G","listText":"G","text":"G","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801401670","repostId":"1171529765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807722788,"gmtCreate":1628060405744,"gmtModify":1633753946316,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807722788","repostId":"2156743271","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806519276,"gmtCreate":1627667849295,"gmtModify":1633757273646,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B","listText":"B","text":"B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806519276","repostId":"1198838390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198838390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627656767,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198838390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的背离是对自满的警告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198838390","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far differe","content":"<p>S&amp;P 500’s core outlook remains bullish</p><p><blockquote>标普500的核心前景仍然看涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9a9d5fb12a2f91c146699e5be54c5c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数的表现与“平均”股票截然不同。这种情况已经持续了一段时间，不一定是牛市“杀手”，但肯定不是最健康的环境。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P,the NASDAQ-100&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔指数、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均处于或接近历史高点。但罗素2000指数落后，反映出整体市场内功不佳。内部测量显示看跌期权买盘相当多，多日广度较差，52周新低甚至多于新高。</blockquote></p><p> What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p><p><blockquote>推动SPX和窄基指数的是数量相对较少的大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p><p><blockquote>类似的故事在过去已经发生过很多次——有些市场结果很糟糕，有些则没有那么糟糕。但在大多数股票都落后的情况下，维持牛市是极其困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p><p><blockquote>两个相当值得注意的事件，但肯定不是最近发生的，是1)1973年的“漂亮五十”股票，它们似乎“无视地心引力”，在市场其他部分跌跌撞撞的情况下继续上涨；最终，这种情况恶化为1974年的熊市，以及2）1994年的“隐形熊市”，小盘股在这一年的大部分时间里都在下跌，但SPX在此期间基本持平；从来没有<i>什么</i>该指数大幅下跌，直到年底一场不相关的丑闻（奥兰治县灾难）导致该指数短暂下跌。</blockquote></p><p> This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况并非不可逆转。如果广度提高，它可以“纠正”自己。这仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍处于看涨模式，因为它正在上涨并高于支撑位。本周低点4370附近有小幅支撑。然后在4233点（7月低点）下方有更重要的支撑。只要SPX保持在该水平之上，图表仍将呈现看涨的外观。4160点和4060点的进一步支撑位经过了很好的测试，但远低于当前水平，用处不大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p><p><blockquote>如随附的SPX图表所示，发出麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号（图表右上角的绿色“S”）。此外，随着标准普尔指数20天历史波动率已升至11%以上，现在也出现了已实现的波动性卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，因为它们仍在上升。这表明过去一个月看跌期权买盘相对较多。从附图中可以看出，标准比率的上升速度快于加权比率，但两者都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&amp;P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p><p><blockquote>广度一直是当前市场正在经历的内部问题的最突出指标。当SPX创下历史新高时，它已经连续多天为负值。因此，我们的广度振荡器落后于市场。是的，它们发出了买入信号，但远未达到纳斯达克100指数、标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数处于或接近高点时预期的积极水平。</blockquote></p><p> There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，周三有一丝小幅改善，当天大盘持平至下跌，但广度是积极的。我们最近没有看到那么多，但如果这种情况继续下去，这将对股市有利。</blockquote></p><p> The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p><p><blockquote>累积宽度振荡器继续滞后，这是负背离的“官方”衡量标准。截至6月11日（含6月11日）的13个交易日中，累计宽度指标有10个创下历史新高。从那以后，他们没有创下一个新的历史新高。与此同时，自该日以来，SPX已连续13个交易日创下历史新高。<i>那个</i>是负背离。</blockquote></p><p> It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过改进累积宽度指标来克服——这是今年早些时候完成的。但是，就目前而言，这种负面分歧仍然是一个警告信号，需要保持警惕，不要自满。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，就纳斯达克数据和“仅股票”数据而言，52周新低多于52周新高。然而，我们使用纽约证券交易所作为指标，新高设法保持对新低的微弱领先。因此，该指标虽然走弱，但仍处于看涨状态。</blockquote></p><p> The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX&nbsp;and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>市场中没有表现出这些负面趋势的一个领域是隐含波动率——VIX及其交易产品。7月20日的VIX“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。事实上，自5月21日以来，除了两个交易日外，一直存在连续的“尖峰”买入信号。此外，由于200日移动平均线仍在下降，VIX的趋势仍然向下，并且远高于VIX 20日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然对股票有利。近月8月VIX期货的交易价格相对于VIX有相当大的溢价，VIX期货期限结构向上倾斜。此外，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构向上倾斜。这些加起来对股市来说是一个看涨的情景。8月份VIX期货的交易价格高于9月份VIX期货，这将表明大盘面临任何危险，但这种危险并非迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p> So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于SPX和VIX的趋势，市场的“核心”前景仍然看涨。是的，内部人士警告不要自满，因此我们可以针对这个“核心”看涨位置发出卖出信号，但只要SPX保持在4233点的支撑位之上，多头仍然占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：D.R。霍顿</b></blockquote></p><p> D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p><p><blockquote>D.R.HortonDHI,+0.50%从其看跌-看涨期权比率图表中发出了新的买入信号，但我们希望这也能得到上行突破的证实。从下图中，人们可以看到看跌-看涨期权比率图上的局部最大值处于极高的水平（绿色“B”），这是对该股极度悲观的一个例子，尽管它自5月初以来的回调并没有那么陡峭。</blockquote></p><p> Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p><p><blockquote>看跌-看涨期权比率信号本质上是相反的，因此如果公众极度悲观，我们希望保持乐观。这将以看涨期权买入的形式实现，但前提是DHI能够收于93阻力位上方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果DHI收于93上方，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后买2 DHI 9月（17日）92.5评级</b></blockquote></p><p> DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p><p><blockquote>DHI目前的交易价格高于93，但我们希望在建立多头看涨期权头寸之前看到它接近93。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p><p><blockquote>这是唯一的新建议。最近没有太多的收购传闻活动，除了<b>塞尔纳公司。</b>CERN，+1.38%然而，我们最近才退出了Cerner的头寸，因为收购传闻已经存在很长时间，以至于超出了我们评级的到期日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙3杜克8月（20日）100评级：</b>将尾随止动件提升至102。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长4 DBX 8月（13日）30.5评级：</b>将跟踪止损提高至30.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p><p><blockquote><b>Long 1 Rapt 8月20日30日看涨期权：</b>你自己的止损点保持在26。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）431看涨期权：</b>该头寸是根据7月20日VIX“尖峰”买入信号买入的。自该日起继续持有22天。如果VIX在任何三天内上涨3.00点或以上，则使用收盘价，该头寸将被止损。如果止损，则在随后的买入信号中以平价看涨期权重新入场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Long 2 HOLX 9月（17日）65评级：</b>自己将跟踪止损提高到68。此外，如果止损点交易在75，则向上滚动至<b>75年9月17日评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）433看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）408看跌：</b>该价差是根据仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号买入的。那些卖出信号仍然存在，所以继续持有这个价差。我们将每周更新情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p><p><blockquote><b>长0 AVCT 8月（20日）5评级：</b>当美国虚拟云技术公司AVCT,-1.30%于7月26日收盘低于5时，这些评级被停止。该股因债务削减的消息而开始走弱，然后在该公司申请出售更多股票后大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙5星8月（20日）22.5评级：</b>将止损提高到22.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p><p><blockquote><b>长5华大智造8月（20日）10评级：</b>最初不间断地持有该头寸，看看收购要约是否能够实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的背离是对自满的警告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis eye-catching divergence in the stock market is a warning against complacency<blockquote>股市这种引人注目的背离是对自满的警告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 22:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>S&amp;P 500’s core outlook remains bullish</p><p><blockquote>标普500的核心前景仍然看涨</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9a9d5fb12a2f91c146699e5be54c5c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数的表现与“平均”股票截然不同。这种情况已经持续了一段时间，不一定是牛市“杀手”，但肯定不是最健康的环境。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P,the NASDAQ-100&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔指数、纳斯达克100指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均处于或接近历史高点。但罗素2000指数落后，反映出整体市场内功不佳。内部测量显示看跌期权买盘相当多，多日广度较差，52周新低甚至多于新高。</blockquote></p><p> What is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.</p><p><blockquote>推动SPX和窄基指数的是数量相对较少的大型科技股。</blockquote></p><p> Similar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.</p><p><blockquote>类似的故事在过去已经发生过很多次——有些市场结果很糟糕，有些则没有那么糟糕。但在大多数股票都落后的情况下，维持牛市是极其困难的。</blockquote></p><p> Two rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there never<i>was</i>much of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.</p><p><blockquote>两个相当值得注意的事件，但肯定不是最近发生的，是1)1973年的“漂亮五十”股票，它们似乎“无视地心引力”，在市场其他部分跌跌撞撞的情况下继续上涨；最终，这种情况恶化为1974年的熊市，以及2）1994年的“隐形熊市”，小盘股在这一年的大部分时间里都在下跌，但SPX在此期间基本持平；从来没有<i>什么</i>该指数大幅下跌，直到年底一场不相关的丑闻（奥兰治县灾难）导致该指数短暂下跌。</blockquote></p><p> This situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.</p><p><blockquote>这种情况并非不可逆转。如果广度提高，它可以“纠正”自己。这仍然是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> The SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.</p><p><blockquote>SPX图表仍处于看涨模式，因为它正在上涨并高于支撑位。本周低点4370附近有小幅支撑。然后在4233点（7月低点）下方有更重要的支撑。只要SPX保持在该水平之上，图表仍将呈现看涨的外观。4160点和4060点的进一步支撑位经过了很好的测试，但远低于当前水平，用处不大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033187b97fbfadb4f302aff6d1e0e8c6\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&amp;P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.</p><p><blockquote>如随附的SPX图表所示，发出麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号（图表右上角的绿色“S”）。此外，随着标准普尔指数20天历史波动率已升至11%以上，现在也出现了已实现的波动性卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍处于卖出信号，因为它们仍在上升。这表明过去一个月看跌期权买盘相对较多。从附图中可以看出，标准比率的上升速度快于加权比率，但两者都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94f1634f122ad3efa266cde27ddd8599\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/786b9a1f7118e239186772ceb365b513\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Breadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&amp;P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.</p><p><blockquote>广度一直是当前市场正在经历的内部问题的最突出指标。当SPX创下历史新高时，它已经连续多天为负值。因此，我们的广度振荡器落后于市场。是的，它们发出了买入信号，但远未达到纳斯达克100指数、标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数处于或接近高点时预期的积极水平。</blockquote></p><p> There was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不过，周三有一丝小幅改善，当天大盘持平至下跌，但广度是积极的。我们最近没有看到那么多，但如果这种情况继续下去，这将对股市有利。</blockquote></p><p> The cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.<i>That</i>is a negative divergence.</p><p><blockquote>累积宽度振荡器继续滞后，这是负背离的“官方”衡量标准。截至6月11日（含6月11日）的13个交易日中，累计宽度指标有10个创下历史新高。从那以后，他们没有创下一个新的历史新高。与此同时，自该日以来，SPX已连续13个交易日创下历史新高。<i>那个</i>是负背离。</blockquote></p><p> It can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过改进累积宽度指标来克服——这是今年早些时候完成的。但是，就目前而言，这种负面分歧仍然是一个警告信号，需要保持警惕，不要自满。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Over the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，就纳斯达克数据和“仅股票”数据而言，52周新低多于52周新高。然而，我们使用纽约证券交易所作为指标，新高设法保持对新低的微弱领先。因此，该指标虽然走弱，但仍处于看涨状态。</blockquote></p><p> The one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX&nbsp;and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>市场中没有表现出这些负面趋势的一个领域是隐含波动率——VIX及其交易产品。7月20日的VIX“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。事实上，自5月21日以来，除了两个交易日外，一直存在连续的“尖峰”买入信号。此外，由于200日移动平均线仍在下降，VIX的趋势仍然向下，并且远高于VIX 20日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647dc26baa4fe92b852e1a1585a5cc18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然对股票有利。近月8月VIX期货的交易价格相对于VIX有相当大的溢价，VIX期货期限结构向上倾斜。此外，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数期限结构向上倾斜。这些加起来对股市来说是一个看涨的情景。8月份VIX期货的交易价格高于9月份VIX期货，这将表明大盘面临任何危险，但这种危险并非迫在眉睫。</blockquote></p><p> So, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于SPX和VIX的趋势，市场的“核心”前景仍然看涨。是的，内部人士警告不要自满，因此我们可以针对这个“核心”看涨位置发出卖出信号，但只要SPX保持在4233点的支撑位之上，多头仍然占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Recommendation: D.R. Horton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新建议：D.R。霍顿</b></blockquote></p><p> D.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.</p><p><blockquote>D.R.HortonDHI,+0.50%从其看跌-看涨期权比率图表中发出了新的买入信号，但我们希望这也能得到上行突破的证实。从下图中，人们可以看到看跌-看涨期权比率图上的局部最大值处于极高的水平（绿色“B”），这是对该股极度悲观的一个例子，尽管它自5月初以来的回调并没有那么陡峭。</blockquote></p><p> Put-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.</p><p><blockquote>看跌-看涨期权比率信号本质上是相反的，因此如果公众极度悲观，我们希望保持乐观。这将以看涨期权买入的形式实现，但前提是DHI能够收于93阻力位上方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IF DHI closes above 93,</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果DHI收于93上方，</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>THEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>然后买2 DHI 9月（17日）92.5评级</b></blockquote></p><p> DHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.</p><p><blockquote>DHI目前的交易价格高于93，但我们希望在建立多头看涨期权头寸之前看到它接近93。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/006888c3a8db8d4a3ffa406ebfc2b2e1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> That is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except for<b>Cerner Corp.</b>CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.</p><p><blockquote>这是唯一的新建议。最近没有太多的收购传闻活动，除了<b>塞尔纳公司。</b>CERN，+1.38%然而，我们最近才退出了Cerner的头寸，因为收购传闻已经存在很长时间，以至于超出了我们评级的到期日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Follow-up action</b></p><p><blockquote><b>后续行动</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 102.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙3杜克8月（20日）100评级：</b>将尾随止动件提升至102。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>长4 DBX 8月（13日）30.5评级：</b>将跟踪止损提高至30.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:</b>The stop yourself remains at 26.</p><p><blockquote><b>Long 1 Rapt 8月20日30日看涨期权：</b>你自己的止损点保持在26。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:</b>This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）431看涨期权：</b>该头寸是根据7月20日VIX“尖峰”买入信号买入的。自该日起继续持有22天。如果VIX在任何三天内上涨3.00点或以上，则使用收盘价，该头寸将被止损。如果止损，则在随后的买入信号中以平价看涨期权重新入场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:</b>Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to the<b>Sept (17th) 75 calls.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Long 2 HOLX 9月（17日）65评级：</b>自己将跟踪止损提高到68。此外，如果止损点交易在75，则向上滚动至<b>75年9月17日评级。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:</b>This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.</p><p><blockquote><b>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）433看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 8月（20日）408看跌：</b>该价差是根据仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号买入的。那些卖出信号仍然存在，所以继续持有这个价差。我们将每周更新情况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:</b>These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.</p><p><blockquote><b>长0 AVCT 8月（20日）5评级：</b>当美国虚拟云技术公司AVCT,-1.30%于7月26日收盘低于5时，这些评级被停止。该股因债务削减的消息而开始走弱，然后在该公司申请出售更多股票后大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:</b>Raise the stop to 22.20.</p><p><blockquote><b>龙5星8月（20日）22.5评级：</b>将止损提高到22.20。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Long 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:</b>Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.</p><p><blockquote><b>长5华大智造8月（20日）10评级：</b>最初不间断地持有该头寸，看看收购要约是否能够实现。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eye-catching-divergence-in-the-stock-market-is-a-warning-against-complacency-01627570780?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198838390","content_text":"S&P 500’s core outlook remains bullish\nGETTY IMAGES\nThe S&P 500 index is performing at a far different rate than the “average” stock. This has been going on for a while and is not necessarily a bull market “killer,” but it is certainly not the healthiest of environments.\nThe S&P,the NASDAQ-100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are all at or near all-time highs. But the Russell 2000 is lagging behind, reflective of the poor internal strength of the overall market. The internal measurements show fairly heavy put buying, poor breadth on many days, and even more new 52-week lows than new highs.\nWhat is propelling SPX and the narrow-based indexes is a relatively small number of large-cap tech stocks.\nSimilar stories have unfolded many times in the past – some with dire market results and some not so bad. But it is extremely difficult to keep a bull market going with the majority of stocks lagging behind.\nTwo rather notable, but certainly not recent, occurrences were 1) the “Nifty Fifty” stocks of 1973 that seemed to “defy gravity” and kept going up while the rest of the market was stumbling; eventually that situation deteriorated into a raging bear market in 1974, and 2) the “stealth bear market” of 1994, where small-caps went down for most of the year, yet SPX was essentially flat during that time; there neverwasmuch of a decline in that index until an unrelated scandal (the Orange County debacle) took it down briefly late in the year.\nThis situation is not irreversible. It could “right” itself if breadth were to improve. That is still a possibility.\nThe SPX chart is still in a bullish mode, as it is rising and above support. There is minor support at this week’s lows, near 4370. Then there is more important support below that at 4233 (the July lows). As long as SPX remains above that level, the chart will still have a bullish appearance. Further support levels at 4160 and 4060 were well-tested, but are so far below current levels as to be of little use.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs noted on the accompanying SPX chart, a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is place (green “S” on the upper right of the chart). In addition, there is now a realized volatility sell signal in place, too, as the S&P’s 20-day historical volatility has risen above 11%.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they are still rising. This is indicative of relatively heavy put buying over the past month. As one can see from the accompanying charts, the standard ratio is rising faster than the weighted ratio – but both are rising.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been the most prominent indicator of the internal troubles that the current market is experiencing. It has been negative on many days when SPX was making new all-time highs. As a result, our breadth oscillators are lagging behind the market. Yes, they are on buy signals, but are nowhere near the positive levels that one would expect to see with the NASDAQ-100, S&P 500 and Dow industrials at or near their highs.\nThere was one small ray of improvement here on Wednesday, though, when the broad market was flat-to-down on the day, yet breadth was positive. We have not seen that much recently, but if it should continue, that would be bullish for stocks.\nThe cumulative breadth oscillators continue to lag, and that is the “official” measure of a negative divergence. The cumulative breadth indicators made new all-time highs on 10 of 13 trading days leading up to and including June 11. Since then, they have not made a single new all-time high. Meanwhile, SPX has made new all-time highs on 13 separate trading days since that date.Thatis a negative divergence.\nIt can be overcome by an improvement in the cumulative breadth indicators – something which was accomplished earlier this year. But, for now, this negative divergence remains as a warning sign to stay alert and not become complacent.\nOver the past week, new 52-weeks lows were more numerous than new 52-week highs in terms of NASDAQ data and in terms of “stocks only” data. However, it is the NYSE that we use for our indicator, and new highs managed to cling to a narrow lead over new lows there. Thus, this indicator – while weakening – is still in a bullish state.\nThe one area of the market that has not shown these negative tendencies is implied volatility – VIX and its trading products. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20 is still in place. In fact, there has been a continuous “spike peak” buy signal in place since May 21, except for two trading days. Moreover, the trend of VIX remains downward as the 200-day moving average is still declining, and it is well above the VIX 20-day moving average.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains positive for stocks. The front-month August VIX futures are trading at a rather large premium to VIX, and the VIX futures term structure slopes upward. Also, the CBOE Volatility Indices term structure slopes upward. These add up to a bullish scenario for stocks. Any danger for the broad market would be signaled by the August VIX futures trading at a higher price than the September VIX futures, but that it is not imminent.\nSo, the “core” outlook for the market remains bullish due to the trends of SPX and VIX. Yes, the internals are warning against complacency, so we can take sell signals against this “core” bullish position, but as long as SPX remains above support at 4233, the bulls remain in charge.\nNew Recommendation: D.R. Horton\nD.R. HortonDHI,+0.50%has a new buy signal from its put-call ratio chart, but we want that to be confirmed by an upside breakout as well. From the chart below, one can see the local maximum at an extremely high level on the put-call ratio chart (the green “B”), and that is an example of extreme pessimism toward this stock, even though its pullback since the beginning of May has not been all that steep.\nPut-call ratio signals are contrary in nature, so if the public is extremely pessimistic, we want to be optimistic. That would materialize in the form of a call buy, but only if DHI can close above resistance at 93.\nIF DHI closes above 93,\nTHEN buy 2 DHI Sept (17th) 92.5 calls\nDHI is currently trading above 93, but we want to see it close there before taking a long call position.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThat is the only new recommendation. There has not been a lot of takeover rumor activity recently except forCerner Corp.CERN,+1.38%However, we only recently exited a position in Cerner, as the takeover rumors had been around so long that they extended beyond the length of the expiration date of our calls.\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 3 DUK Aug (20th) 100 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 102.\nLong 4 DBX Aug (13th) 30.5 calls:Raise the trailing stop to 30.20.\nLong 1 RAPT Aug (20th) 30 call:The stop yourself remains at 26.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 431 call:This position was bought in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of July 20. Continue to hold for 22 days from that date. The position would be stopped out if VIX were to rise 3.00 points or more within any three-day period, using closing prices. If it is stopped out, then re-enter with an at-the-money call on the ensuing buy signal.\nLong 2 HOLX Sept (17th) 65 calls:Raise the trailing stop yourself to 68. Furthermore, if the stop trades at 75, then roll up to theSept (17th) 75 calls.\nLong 1 SPY Aug (20th) 433 put and short 1 SPY Aug (20th) 408 put:This spread was bought in line with the equity-only put-call ratio sell signals. Those sell signals are still in place, so continue to hold this spread. We will update the situation weekly.\nLong 0 AVCT Aug (20th) 5 calls:These calls were stopped out when American Virtual Cloud TechnologiesAVCT,-1.30%closed below 5 on July 26. The stock had begun to weaken on news of debt reduction and then fell sharply after the company filed to sell more shares.\nLong 5 STAR Aug (20th) 22.5 calls:Raise the stop to 22.20.\nLong 5 MGI Aug (20th) 10 calls:Hold this position without a stop initially to see if a takeover bid can materialize.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808619687,"gmtCreate":1627572846349,"gmtModify":1633758145512,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808619687","repostId":"1141389413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141389413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627558905,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141389413?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 19:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141389413","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for div","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.</li>  <li>Dividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.</li>  <li>Amazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.</li>  <li>Amazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92fdb38b961293c938988e9eaeb7df1d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊正在快速增长并产生稳定的自由现金流，但这些现金流目前尚未用于支付股息。</li><li>股息支付可能不会对总回报产生太大影响，而且亚马逊可以将其现金流用于增长型投资，这似乎是目前更好的主意。</li><li>亚马逊最终会在某个时候成熟，亚马逊似乎有可能在那个时候遵循苹果向所有者返还现金的策略。</li><li>亚马逊是一个伟大的增长故事，但它的股票也很昂贵。从长远来看，回报应该是稳健的，但不会极高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司（AMZN）在过去一直是一项伟大的投资，由于强劲的增长率和漫长的增长跑道，它在未来也可能是一项可靠的投资——尽管估值相当高。由于一些收益投资者确实想知道亚马逊是否会支付股息，我们将尝试在本报告中评估这个问题，并为亚马逊股东展示一种立即从投资中产生收入的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊目前支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，这个经常被提出的问题的答案显然是否定的。亚马逊不支付任何股息，从未支付过任何股息，高管也没有任何声明表明亚马逊即将在短期内支付股息。就目前的状态而言，亚马逊是一种纯粹的资本增值业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should Amazon Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊应该支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案并不那么容易，因为这取决于你的观点。一些持有亚马逊股票但通常更喜欢投资创收股票的股东肯定希望看到亚马逊宣布股息。另一方面，成长型投资者会指出这样一个事实，即股息收益率无论如何都会相当低，亚马逊可以将其现金流用于其他方面，例如。通过增长资本支出或收购其他公司。人们当然可以为亚马逊等成长型公司投资其业务以推动未来增长而不是支付股息提供理由。</blockquote></p><p> I personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:</p><p><blockquote>我个人喜欢投资创收股票，但不仅仅如此，所以我也拥有一些资本增值股票，包括亚马逊。我不认为亚马逊支付股息会是一个巨大的优势，因为我认为亚马逊不是那种从支付股息中受益匪浅的公司。我还认为，只有当公司有大量剩余现金流时才应该支付股息，因为支付通过债务融资的股息不会为股东创造价值。看看亚马逊的现金流，我们看到以下情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb9d03526543be149e8628c2939208d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的自由现金流市盈率为83倍，自由现金流收益率为1.2%。无论如何，以股息的形式支付所有现金流都是不可取的，因此如果AMZN支付其自由现金流的50%，其股息收益率将仅为0.6%。到目前为止，这一数字还不足以吸引大量收益投资者购买该股票，也不会对总回报产生有意义的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.</p><p><blockquote>收益率将明显低于投资者从大盘（SPDR标普500指数ETF）获得的1.3%或房地产（VNQ）或公用事业（XLU）等收入投资者友好行业获得的3%。因此，我认为，如果亚马逊开始支付股息，不会有明显的好处。另一方面，即使股息收益率仅为0.6%，每年也会消耗超过100亿美元的现金，而这些现金将无法用于投资。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的核心业务并不具有高利润的性质，但该公司通过投资额外的高价值业务（例如云计算）成功扩大了规模。如果亚马逊每年支付数十亿美元的股息，这些投资将是不可能的，或者只会规模较小。只要亚马逊的管理团队能够找到投资现金获利的方法，这可能是创造股东价值的更好选择。</blockquote></p><p> This does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着事情不会随着时间的推移而改变，因为亚马逊会在某个时候成熟，就像许多其他公司一样。例如，苹果（AAPL）最终开始支付股息，当时其现金流增长如此之大，以至于无法将其全部再投资并获利。同样的事情也很容易在某个时候发生在亚马逊身上，但目前情况似乎并非如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for&nbsp;$8.5 billion&nbsp;in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).</p><p><blockquote>多年来，亚马逊一直在投资大量收购，例如米高梅（OTC：MGMB），该公司将在两个月前宣布的交易中以85亿美元的价格被收购。此举将增强亚马逊Prime Video细分市场的原创内容产品和内容创作能力，这反过来将有助于吸引更多用户，并使亚马逊与迪士尼(DIS)和Netflix(NFLX)相比更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> Making these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，与以远低于1%的微不足道的收益率将这些数十亿美元返还给股东相比，进行此类战略收购的目标是使公司获得市场份额和未来增长，可能更有用。去年收购自动驾驶汽车科技公司Zoox是另一个非常符合亚马逊整体战略的收购例子。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to&nbsp;possibly enter the robo-taxi market&nbsp;on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊能够在某个时候推出自动送货车辆，它自然会受益匪浅，因为这可以改善其成本状况，并允许更快的送货时间。花钱增强亚马逊在这一领域的能力是有意义的，而且它使亚马逊有可能在此基础上进入机器人出租车市场。将AMZN为Zoox支付的12亿美元支付给股东，相当于0.07%的极小收益率——换句话说，股东基本上不会从中获得任何东西。</blockquote></p><p> It should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，引入股息支付可能有一个好处。如果亚马逊今天开始支付股息，即使利率非常低，它也可能开始建立股息增长记录，这可能会在未来某个时候，当增长放缓而派息增长时，就会出现。方便。一些投资者被连续10年、20年、25年或更长时间提高股息的股票所吸引，因此今天开始建立这一记录可能会带来潜在的未来好处，尽管不是在短期内。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为亚马逊公司今天不应该支付股息，因为增长仍然应该是像亚马逊这样的公司的首要任务。如果亚马逊计划最终成为定期股息支付者，那么引入非常小的股息以建立股息增长记录可能是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Create Your Own Income Using Options</b></p><p><blockquote><b>使用期权创造自己的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的股票可能会波动，这使得用户可以使用期权策略（例如出售担保评级）来创造收入。</blockquote></p><p> If, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one&nbsp;call option contract&nbsp;with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果投资者拥有100股Amazon股票，并出售一份执行价为4,500美元、到期日为2022年1月的看涨期权期权合约，则投资者将获得每股46美元，即总计4,600美元。相对于当前363,000美元的投资价值，相当于1.3%的现金回报率。同样的过程可以在半年后再次进行，这样年产量将达到2.6%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Using this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.</p><p><blockquote>因此，使用这种策略，投资者可以创造出远高于当今大盘的收益率。该策略的缺点是股票可能会被回调，从而限制了潜在的上涨空间。然而，如果股价到1月份突破4,500美元，然后就会被回调，那么上涨空间仍将为24%。</blockquote></p><p> The strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.</p><p><blockquote>该策略也只有在您持有至少100股AMZN股票的情况下才能有效，由于AMZN的每股价格较高，这需要巨大的投资组合规模。尽管如此，这种策略对于一些喜欢拥有亚马逊但确实想要或需要从投资中获得一些收入的投资者来说可能很有用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:</p><p><blockquote>我相信，亚马逊公司是一家优质公司，拥有巨大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。它处于有利地位，可以利用云计算、在线购物和在线广告等大趋势。另一方面，股票相当昂贵，易手的估值明显高于大多数其他股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf764ff4b0eca336f5b0f39fc149329\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated&nbsp;that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.</p><p><blockquote>按照今年预期净利润的66倍和明年利润的50倍计算，AMZN远非便宜货。还值得注意的是，过去几个月估值有所扩大，3月份股价市盈率下降了20%。几周前，我估计亚马逊从长远来看可以带来高个位数的回报，这并非没有吸引力。但我相信，股票未来不会产生我们过去几年看到的回报。AMZN是一个优质选择，优质公司每年7%-8%的回报率不容小觑，但AMZN目前有点太贵，无法获得强烈买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为亚马逊更接近买入而不是卖出，如果估值回升一点，它可能会非常有吸引力——例如。3月份的交易价格为3,000美元。当然，亚马逊是否是您投资组合的好选择取决于您的投资目标、时间范围和风险承受能力，但我相信，对于那些想要参与其中之一的人来说，亚马逊的股票是可靠的持有和潜在的买入。当今可以投资的最佳增长故事。</blockquote></p><p> It is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于亚马逊的高估值，其股价很可能在近期或中期下跌。我们在过去不时看到这种情况，因此，如果您想最大限度地获得更有利的入场价格的机会，在入场或扩大头寸之前等待最终回调可能是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 19:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.</li>  <li>Dividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.</li>  <li>Amazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.</li>  <li>Amazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92fdb38b961293c938988e9eaeb7df1d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊正在快速增长并产生稳定的自由现金流，但这些现金流目前尚未用于支付股息。</li><li>股息支付可能不会对总回报产生太大影响，而且亚马逊可以将其现金流用于增长型投资，这似乎是目前更好的主意。</li><li>亚马逊最终会在某个时候成熟，亚马逊似乎有可能在那个时候遵循苹果向所有者返还现金的策略。</li><li>亚马逊是一个伟大的增长故事，但它的股票也很昂贵。从长远来看，回报应该是稳健的，但不会极高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司（AMZN）在过去一直是一项伟大的投资，由于强劲的增长率和漫长的增长跑道，它在未来也可能是一项可靠的投资——尽管估值相当高。由于一些收益投资者确实想知道亚马逊是否会支付股息，我们将尝试在本报告中评估这个问题，并为亚马逊股东展示一种立即从投资中产生收入的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊目前支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，这个经常被提出的问题的答案显然是否定的。亚马逊不支付任何股息，从未支付过任何股息，高管也没有任何声明表明亚马逊即将在短期内支付股息。就目前的状态而言，亚马逊是一种纯粹的资本增值业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should Amazon Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊应该支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案并不那么容易，因为这取决于你的观点。一些持有亚马逊股票但通常更喜欢投资创收股票的股东肯定希望看到亚马逊宣布股息。另一方面，成长型投资者会指出这样一个事实，即股息收益率无论如何都会相当低，亚马逊可以将其现金流用于其他方面，例如。通过增长资本支出或收购其他公司。人们当然可以为亚马逊等成长型公司投资其业务以推动未来增长而不是支付股息提供理由。</blockquote></p><p> I personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:</p><p><blockquote>我个人喜欢投资创收股票，但不仅仅如此，所以我也拥有一些资本增值股票，包括亚马逊。我不认为亚马逊支付股息会是一个巨大的优势，因为我认为亚马逊不是那种从支付股息中受益匪浅的公司。我还认为，只有当公司有大量剩余现金流时才应该支付股息，因为支付通过债务融资的股息不会为股东创造价值。看看亚马逊的现金流，我们看到以下情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb9d03526543be149e8628c2939208d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的自由现金流市盈率为83倍，自由现金流收益率为1.2%。无论如何，以股息的形式支付所有现金流都是不可取的，因此如果AMZN支付其自由现金流的50%，其股息收益率将仅为0.6%。到目前为止，这一数字还不足以吸引大量收益投资者购买该股票，也不会对总回报产生有意义的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.</p><p><blockquote>收益率将明显低于投资者从大盘（SPDR标普500指数ETF）获得的1.3%或房地产（VNQ）或公用事业（XLU）等收入投资者友好行业获得的3%。因此，我认为，如果亚马逊开始支付股息，不会有明显的好处。另一方面，即使股息收益率仅为0.6%，每年也会消耗超过100亿美元的现金，而这些现金将无法用于投资。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的核心业务并不具有高利润的性质，但该公司通过投资额外的高价值业务（例如云计算）成功扩大了规模。如果亚马逊每年支付数十亿美元的股息，这些投资将是不可能的，或者只会规模较小。只要亚马逊的管理团队能够找到投资现金获利的方法，这可能是创造股东价值的更好选择。</blockquote></p><p> This does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着事情不会随着时间的推移而改变，因为亚马逊会在某个时候成熟，就像许多其他公司一样。例如，苹果（AAPL）最终开始支付股息，当时其现金流增长如此之大，以至于无法将其全部再投资并获利。同样的事情也很容易在某个时候发生在亚马逊身上，但目前情况似乎并非如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for&nbsp;$8.5 billion&nbsp;in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).</p><p><blockquote>多年来，亚马逊一直在投资大量收购，例如米高梅（OTC：MGMB），该公司将在两个月前宣布的交易中以85亿美元的价格被收购。此举将增强亚马逊Prime Video细分市场的原创内容产品和内容创作能力，这反过来将有助于吸引更多用户，并使亚马逊与迪士尼(DIS)和Netflix(NFLX)相比更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> Making these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，与以远低于1%的微不足道的收益率将这些数十亿美元返还给股东相比，进行此类战略收购的目标是使公司获得市场份额和未来增长，可能更有用。去年收购自动驾驶汽车科技公司Zoox是另一个非常符合亚马逊整体战略的收购例子。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to&nbsp;possibly enter the robo-taxi market&nbsp;on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊能够在某个时候推出自动送货车辆，它自然会受益匪浅，因为这可以改善其成本状况，并允许更快的送货时间。花钱增强亚马逊在这一领域的能力是有意义的，而且它使亚马逊有可能在此基础上进入机器人出租车市场。将AMZN为Zoox支付的12亿美元支付给股东，相当于0.07%的极小收益率——换句话说，股东基本上不会从中获得任何东西。</blockquote></p><p> It should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，引入股息支付可能有一个好处。如果亚马逊今天开始支付股息，即使利率非常低，它也可能开始建立股息增长记录，这可能会在未来某个时候，当增长放缓而派息增长时，就会出现。方便。一些投资者被连续10年、20年、25年或更长时间提高股息的股票所吸引，因此今天开始建立这一记录可能会带来潜在的未来好处，尽管不是在短期内。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为亚马逊公司今天不应该支付股息，因为增长仍然应该是像亚马逊这样的公司的首要任务。如果亚马逊计划最终成为定期股息支付者，那么引入非常小的股息以建立股息增长记录可能是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Create Your Own Income Using Options</b></p><p><blockquote><b>使用期权创造自己的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的股票可能会波动，这使得用户可以使用期权策略（例如出售担保评级）来创造收入。</blockquote></p><p> If, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one&nbsp;call option contract&nbsp;with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果投资者拥有100股Amazon股票，并出售一份执行价为4,500美元、到期日为2022年1月的看涨期权期权合约，则投资者将获得每股46美元，即总计4,600美元。相对于当前363,000美元的投资价值，相当于1.3%的现金回报率。同样的过程可以在半年后再次进行，这样年产量将达到2.6%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Using this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.</p><p><blockquote>因此，使用这种策略，投资者可以创造出远高于当今大盘的收益率。该策略的缺点是股票可能会被回调，从而限制了潜在的上涨空间。然而，如果股价到1月份突破4,500美元，然后就会被回调，那么上涨空间仍将为24%。</blockquote></p><p> The strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.</p><p><blockquote>该策略也只有在您持有至少100股AMZN股票的情况下才能有效，由于AMZN的每股价格较高，这需要巨大的投资组合规模。尽管如此，这种策略对于一些喜欢拥有亚马逊但确实想要或需要从投资中获得一些收入的投资者来说可能很有用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:</p><p><blockquote>我相信，亚马逊公司是一家优质公司，拥有巨大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。它处于有利地位，可以利用云计算、在线购物和在线广告等大趋势。另一方面，股票相当昂贵，易手的估值明显高于大多数其他股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf764ff4b0eca336f5b0f39fc149329\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated&nbsp;that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.</p><p><blockquote>按照今年预期净利润的66倍和明年利润的50倍计算，AMZN远非便宜货。还值得注意的是，过去几个月估值有所扩大，3月份股价市盈率下降了20%。几周前，我估计亚马逊从长远来看可以带来高个位数的回报，这并非没有吸引力。但我相信，股票未来不会产生我们过去几年看到的回报。AMZN是一个优质选择，优质公司每年7%-8%的回报率不容小觑，但AMZN目前有点太贵，无法获得强烈买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为亚马逊更接近买入而不是卖出，如果估值回升一点，它可能会非常有吸引力——例如。3月份的交易价格为3,000美元。当然，亚马逊是否是您投资组合的好选择取决于您的投资目标、时间范围和风险承受能力，但我相信，对于那些想要参与其中之一的人来说，亚马逊的股票是可靠的持有和潜在的买入。当今可以投资的最佳增长故事。</blockquote></p><p> It is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于亚马逊的高估值，其股价很可能在近期或中期下跌。我们在过去不时看到这种情况，因此，如果您想最大限度地获得更有利的入场价格的机会，在入场或扩大头寸之前等待最终回调可能是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141389413","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.\nDividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.\nAmazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.\nAmazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.\n\nmarekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.\nDoes Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.\nShould Amazon Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.\nI personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:\nData by YCharts\nThe company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.\nThe yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.\nAmazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.\nThis does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.\nAmazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for $8.5 billion in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).\nMaking these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.\nAmazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to possibly enter the robo-taxi market on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.\nIt should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.\nOverall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.\nCreate Your Own Income Using Options\nAmazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.\nIf, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one call option contract with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.\nUsing this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.\nThe strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.\nIs Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAmazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:\nData by YCharts\nAt 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.\nAmazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.\nIt is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808637511,"gmtCreate":1627572787233,"gmtModify":1633758146593,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808637511","repostId":"1179174010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179174010","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627572541,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179174010?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉AI Day将于8月19日</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179174010","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19.While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self","content":"<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>在Elon Musk确认特斯拉AI Day将于8月19日举行后，特斯拉股价飙升逾5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉CEO Elon Musk周四通过推文证实，该公司将于8月19日举办AI Day。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司没有提供人工智能活动的细节，但马斯克在6月21日的一条推文中表示，该活动“将回顾特斯拉人工智能软件和硬件的进展，包括训练和推理”，其目的是招聘。</blockquote></p><p> The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p><p><blockquote>AI盛会的焦点很可能围绕着特斯拉的自动驾驶技术。尽管该系统被命名为全自动驾驶（FSD），但该软件仍处于beta测试阶段，该公司在SEC文件中表示，它尚未完全自动驾驶。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这一领域的招聘工作旨在吸引机器学习和计算机视觉方面的专家，以及神经网络专家。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉AI Day将于8月19日</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19<blockquote>马斯克确认特斯拉AI Day将于8月19日</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-29 23:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla shares surged more than 5%&nbsp;after&nbsp;Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>在Elon Musk确认特斯拉AI Day将于8月19日举行后，特斯拉股价飙升逾5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a827bd1090dddc0ac2adc7e3aa9e60\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉CEO Elon Musk周四通过推文证实，该公司将于8月19日举办AI Day。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software &amp; hardware, both training &amp; inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司没有提供人工智能活动的细节，但马斯克在6月21日的一条推文中表示，该活动“将回顾特斯拉人工智能软件和硬件的进展，包括训练和推理”，其目的是招聘。</blockquote></p><p> The focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.</p><p><blockquote>AI盛会的焦点很可能围绕着特斯拉的自动驾驶技术。尽管该系统被命名为全自动驾驶（FSD），但该软件仍处于beta测试阶段，该公司在SEC文件中表示，它尚未完全自动驾驶。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这一领域的招聘工作旨在吸引机器学习和计算机视觉方面的专家，以及神经网络专家。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179174010","content_text":"Tesla shares surged more than 5% after Elon Musk confirming Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.\n\nTesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed via tweet on Thursday that the company is holding an AI Day on Aug. 19. \nWhile the company did not provide details of the artificial intelligence event, Musk said in a June 21 tweet that the event \"will go over progress with Tesla AI software & hardware, both training & inference\" and that its purpose is recruiting.\nThe focus of the AI event is likely to be around Tesla's self-driving technology. Although the system is named Full Self-Driving (FSD), the software is still in beta testing, and the company has said in SEC filings it is not yet fully autonomous.\nTesla's recruiting effort in this area seeks to attract experts in machine learning and computer vision, as well as neural network specialists.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807725889,"gmtCreate":1628060430841,"gmtModify":1633753946195,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807725889","repostId":"2156512711","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804934973,"gmtCreate":1627915358292,"gmtModify":1633755295652,"author":{"id":"3583230838380827","authorId":"3583230838380827","name":"zy12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78319f7dfefc5c4c4d2958155fffa072","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583230838380827","idStr":"3583230838380827"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804934973","repostId":"1116207905","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}