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leekanghao

leekanghao

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2021-09-28

Watch those yields, would that dampen the market?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-05

Read

2 Good Reasons the Stock Market Isn’t Ready to Blow Up Yet<blockquote>股市尚未准备好爆炸的2个充分理由</blockquote>

2021-09-04

Buy

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2021-09-02

Here we go again

Moderna Seeks FDA Approval For COVID-19 Booster Shot<blockquote>Moderna寻求FDA批准COVID-19加强注射</blockquote>

2021-08-24

Insightful read

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>

2021-08-23

Buy!

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2021-08-22

Stick with index

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2021-08-22

Read

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>

2021-08-18

Buy!

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2021-08-17

Buy

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2021-08-16

Wait

Dow, S&P End Week at Record Highs. It’s Not That Exciting.<blockquote>道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数周末创下历史新高。没那么刺激。</blockquote>

2021-08-07

Read!

How 10 of the world’s smartest investors can help you build your perfect portfolio<blockquote>世界上10位最聪明的投资者如何帮助您建立完美的投资组合</blockquote>

2021-08-06

Buy!

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2021-08-05

Hold!

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2021-08-02

Buy!

Square Agrees to Acquire Afterpay for $29 Billion in All-Stock Deal<blockquote>Square同意以290亿美元的全股票交易收购Afterpay</blockquote>

2021-08-01

Read!

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2021-07-31

Read

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2021-07-23

Sell

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-20

Buy!

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2021-07-20

Read!

抱歉，原内容已删除

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market?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866511001","repostId":"2170624172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":814156184,"gmtCreate":1630800144048,"gmtModify":1632905892065,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814156184","repostId":"1169514310","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169514310","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630656896,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169514310?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 16:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Good Reasons the Stock Market Isn’t Ready to Blow Up Yet<blockquote>股市尚未准备好爆炸的2个充分理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169514310","media":"Barron's","summary":"tocks have had an impressive year so far, but there are still four months before 2021 wraps up. So w","content":"<p>tocks have had an impressive year so far, but there are still four months before 2021 wraps up. So what’s ahead? A correction? More gains? Right now, it’s easier to make the case for the rally to just keep on going.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，股票经历了令人印象深刻的一年，但距离2021年结束还有四个月的时间。那么接下来会发生什么？更正？更多收获？现在，更容易证明涨势继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> First, though, it’s understandable why investors might be nervous.</p><p><blockquote>不过，首先，投资者感到紧张是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p> TheS&amp;P 500has gained about 21% year to date, far above the historical average annual return of about 10%. And in the first eight months, the index hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5%— a correction is defined as a 10% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数今年迄今已上涨约21%，远高于约10%的历史平均年回报率。在前八个月，该指数的回调幅度没有超过5%——回调被定义为下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p> Still, a good run needs something to stop it—likehigher corporate taxes,which the Biden administration supports. They could shave 5% or more off projected earnings estimates for S&amp;P 500 companies. Or persistent inflation, which could cause the Federal Reserve to rapidly reduce economic support. And there are a host of other catalysts, enough to push some analyststo forecast a retreat.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，良好的运行需要一些东西来阻止它——比如拜登政府支持的更高的公司税。他们可能会将标普500公司的盈利预期下调5%或更多。或者持续的通胀，这可能导致美联储迅速减少经济支持。还有许多其他催化剂，足以促使一些分析师预测经济会出现回落。</blockquote></p><p> But who knows how long Washington might take to put a new tax structure in place, or if lawmakers even will. Or what the deal is with inflation. There has been tapering talk for a few months now, and the Fed holds firm to its wait-and-see approach.</p><p><blockquote>但谁知道华盛顿可能需要多长时间才能建立新的税收结构，或者立法者是否会这样做。或者通货膨胀是怎么回事。缩减购债规模的讨论已经持续了几个月，美联储仍坚持观望态度。</blockquote></p><p> So the nature of the market’s climb in the past couple of weeks seems to be the surest, strongest sign of what’s ahead. The S&amp;P 500 is up 3% since Aug. 18, the bottom of a brief and shallow drop.</p><p><blockquote>因此，过去几周市场上涨的性质似乎是未来最确定、最强烈的迹象。自8月18日以来，标普500已上涨3%，这是短暂而浅跌的底部。</blockquote></p><p> “[Market] internals improved last week,” writes&nbsp;Michael Gibbs, director of equity portfolio and technical strategy at Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)股票投资组合和技术策略总监迈克尔·吉布斯(Michael Gibbs)写道：“上周[市场]内部结构有所改善。”</blockquote></p><p> First off, transaction volumes are improving.</p><p><blockquote>首先，交易量正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> In late August, the daily number of shares traded on the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 Exchange-Traded Fund Trust(SPY) has been about 54 million, according to FactSet. That’s above just under 50 million seen in the middle of the month.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，8月底，SPDR标普500交易所交易基金信托（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的每日交易股票数量约为5400万股。这高于本月中旬的略低于5000万。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot: When more market participants are transacting and they are bidding prices higher, it’s a vote of confidence in the market.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：当更多的市场参与者进行交易并且他们出价更高时，这是对市场的信任票。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, the rally has been broad-based—many stocks have participated. For example, almost 80% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange have been gaining, according to Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>其次，涨势基础广泛——许多股票都参与其中。例如，雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)表示，纽约证券交易所上市的近80%的股票都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The last time that metric hit such a high was November 2020. More stocks participating in the rally means the major indexes are less dependent on one group of stocks to move higher. Plus, witheconomically sensitive stocks on a run as well,it means investors are confident in sustained economic growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>该指标上一次达到如此高的水平是在2020年11月。更多股票参与涨势意味着主要股指较少依赖一组股票走高。此外，经济敏感型股票也在上涨，这意味着投资者对未来经济持续增长充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> So more gains or a correction? We’ve made our case, but time will tell.</p><p><blockquote>那么更多的收益还是修正？我们已经证明了我们的观点，但时间会证明一切。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Good Reasons the Stock Market Isn’t Ready to Blow Up Yet<blockquote>股市尚未准备好爆炸的2个充分理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Good Reasons the Stock Market Isn’t Ready to Blow Up Yet<blockquote>股市尚未准备好爆炸的2个充分理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 16:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>tocks have had an impressive year so far, but there are still four months before 2021 wraps up. So what’s ahead? A correction? More gains? Right now, it’s easier to make the case for the rally to just keep on going.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，股票经历了令人印象深刻的一年，但距离2021年结束还有四个月的时间。那么接下来会发生什么？更正？更多收获？现在，更容易证明涨势继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> First, though, it’s understandable why investors might be nervous.</p><p><blockquote>不过，首先，投资者感到紧张是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p> TheS&amp;P 500has gained about 21% year to date, far above the historical average annual return of about 10%. And in the first eight months, the index hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5%— a correction is defined as a 10% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数今年迄今已上涨约21%，远高于约10%的历史平均年回报率。在前八个月，该指数的回调幅度没有超过5%——回调被定义为下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p> Still, a good run needs something to stop it—likehigher corporate taxes,which the Biden administration supports. They could shave 5% or more off projected earnings estimates for S&amp;P 500 companies. Or persistent inflation, which could cause the Federal Reserve to rapidly reduce economic support. And there are a host of other catalysts, enough to push some analyststo forecast a retreat.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，良好的运行需要一些东西来阻止它——比如拜登政府支持的更高的公司税。他们可能会将标普500公司的盈利预期下调5%或更多。或者持续的通胀，这可能导致美联储迅速减少经济支持。还有许多其他催化剂，足以促使一些分析师预测经济会出现回落。</blockquote></p><p> But who knows how long Washington might take to put a new tax structure in place, or if lawmakers even will. Or what the deal is with inflation. There has been tapering talk for a few months now, and the Fed holds firm to its wait-and-see approach.</p><p><blockquote>但谁知道华盛顿可能需要多长时间才能建立新的税收结构，或者立法者是否会这样做。或者通货膨胀是怎么回事。缩减购债规模的讨论已经持续了几个月，美联储仍坚持观望态度。</blockquote></p><p> So the nature of the market’s climb in the past couple of weeks seems to be the surest, strongest sign of what’s ahead. The S&amp;P 500 is up 3% since Aug. 18, the bottom of a brief and shallow drop.</p><p><blockquote>因此，过去几周市场上涨的性质似乎是未来最确定、最强烈的迹象。自8月18日以来，标普500已上涨3%，这是短暂而浅跌的底部。</blockquote></p><p> “[Market] internals improved last week,” writes&nbsp;Michael Gibbs, director of equity portfolio and technical strategy at Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)股票投资组合和技术策略总监迈克尔·吉布斯(Michael Gibbs)写道：“上周[市场]内部结构有所改善。”</blockquote></p><p> First off, transaction volumes are improving.</p><p><blockquote>首先，交易量正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> In late August, the daily number of shares traded on the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 Exchange-Traded Fund Trust(SPY) has been about 54 million, according to FactSet. That’s above just under 50 million seen in the middle of the month.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，8月底，SPDR标普500交易所交易基金信托（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的每日交易股票数量约为5400万股。这高于本月中旬的略低于5000万。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot: When more market participants are transacting and they are bidding prices higher, it’s a vote of confidence in the market.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：当更多的市场参与者进行交易并且他们出价更高时，这是对市场的信任票。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, the rally has been broad-based—many stocks have participated. For example, almost 80% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange have been gaining, according to Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>其次，涨势基础广泛——许多股票都参与其中。例如，雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)表示，纽约证券交易所上市的近80%的股票都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The last time that metric hit such a high was November 2020. More stocks participating in the rally means the major indexes are less dependent on one group of stocks to move higher. Plus, witheconomically sensitive stocks on a run as well,it means investors are confident in sustained economic growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>该指标上一次达到如此高的水平是在2020年11月。更多股票参与涨势意味着主要股指较少依赖一组股票走高。此外，经济敏感型股票也在上涨，这意味着投资者对未来经济持续增长充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> So more gains or a correction? We’ve made our case, but time will tell.</p><p><blockquote>那么更多的收益还是修正？我们已经证明了我们的观点，但时间会证明一切。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-crash-or-rally-51630526109?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-crash-or-rally-51630526109?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169514310","content_text":"tocks have had an impressive year so far, but there are still four months before 2021 wraps up. So what’s ahead? A correction? More gains? Right now, it’s easier to make the case for the rally to just keep on going.\nFirst, though, it’s understandable why investors might be nervous.\nTheS&P 500has gained about 21% year to date, far above the historical average annual return of about 10%. And in the first eight months, the index hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5%— a correction is defined as a 10% drawdown.\nStill, a good run needs something to stop it—likehigher corporate taxes,which the Biden administration supports. They could shave 5% or more off projected earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. Or persistent inflation, which could cause the Federal Reserve to rapidly reduce economic support. And there are a host of other catalysts, enough to push some analyststo forecast a retreat.\nBut who knows how long Washington might take to put a new tax structure in place, or if lawmakers even will. Or what the deal is with inflation. There has been tapering talk for a few months now, and the Fed holds firm to its wait-and-see approach.\nSo the nature of the market’s climb in the past couple of weeks seems to be the surest, strongest sign of what’s ahead. The S&P 500 is up 3% since Aug. 18, the bottom of a brief and shallow drop.\n“[Market] internals improved last week,” writes Michael Gibbs, director of equity portfolio and technical strategy at Raymond James.\nFirst off, transaction volumes are improving.\nIn late August, the daily number of shares traded on the SPDR S&P 500 Exchange-Traded Fund Trust(SPY) has been about 54 million, according to FactSet. That’s above just under 50 million seen in the middle of the month.\nThe upshot: When more market participants are transacting and they are bidding prices higher, it’s a vote of confidence in the market.\nSecondly, the rally has been broad-based—many stocks have participated. For example, almost 80% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange have been gaining, according to Raymond James.\nThe last time that metric hit such a high was November 2020. More stocks participating in the rally means the major indexes are less dependent on one group of stocks to move higher. Plus, witheconomically sensitive stocks on a run as well,it means investors are confident in sustained economic growth ahead.\nSo more gains or a correction? We’ve made our case, but time will tell.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814924023,"gmtCreate":1630748046962,"gmtModify":1632906050798,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814924023","repostId":"2164879370","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812810685,"gmtCreate":1630572154847,"gmtModify":1632472307558,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Here we go again","listText":"Here we go again","text":"Here we go again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812810685","repostId":"1188874540","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188874540","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630571264,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188874540?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna Seeks FDA Approval For COVID-19 Booster Shot<blockquote>Moderna寻求FDA批准COVID-19加强注射</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188874540","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Moderna Inc is pushing ahead for authorization of a third shot of its COVID-19 vaccine as a booster.","content":"<p><div> Moderna Inc is pushing ahead for authorization of a third shot of its COVID-19 vaccine as a booster. What Happened:The Massachusetts-based company said in a statement Wednesday that it had initiated ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Moderna Inc.正在推动授权第三针COVID-19疫苗作为加强针。发生了什么：这家总部位于马萨诸塞州的公司周三在一份声明中表示，它已经启动了...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/09/22772682/moderna-seeks-fda-approval-for-covid-19-booster-shot\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/09/22772682/moderna-seeks-fda-approval-for-covid-19-booster-shot\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna Seeks FDA Approval For COVID-19 Booster Shot<blockquote>Moderna寻求FDA批准COVID-19加强注射</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna Seeks FDA Approval For COVID-19 Booster Shot<blockquote>Moderna寻求FDA批准COVID-19加强注射</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Moderna Inc is pushing ahead for authorization of a third shot of its COVID-19 vaccine as a booster. What Happened:The Massachusetts-based company said in a statement Wednesday that it had initiated ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Moderna Inc.正在推动授权第三针COVID-19疫苗作为加强针。发生了什么：这家总部位于马萨诸塞州的公司周三在一份声明中表示，它已经启动了...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/09/22772682/moderna-seeks-fda-approval-for-covid-19-booster-shot\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/09/22772682/moderna-seeks-fda-approval-for-covid-19-booster-shot\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/09/22772682/moderna-seeks-fda-approval-for-covid-19-booster-shot\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/09/22772682/moderna-seeks-fda-approval-for-covid-19-booster-shot","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188874540","content_text":"Moderna Inc is pushing ahead for authorization of a third shot of its COVID-19 vaccine as a booster.\nWhat Happened:The Massachusetts-based company said in a statement Wednesday that it had initiated its submission to the U.S.Food and Drug Administration for evaluation of a booster dose of its vaccine at the 50 microgram dose level.\n“Our submission is supported by data generated with the 50 µg dose of our COVID-19 vaccine, which shows robust antibody responses against the Delta variant,” said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna.\nThe usual dose for Moderna’s vaccinecontains100 micrograms of mRNA per shot.\nWhy It Matters:Moderna said it expects to submit data to the European Medicines Agency(EMA) and other regulatory authorities globally in the “coming days.”\nIn April, Moderna posted an update to its vaccine program, which included an examination of the vaccine’s effectiveness at the six-month mark.\nAt the time, the company said that its COVID-19 vaccine provided over 90% effectiveness against all cases after the second dose.\nModerna said on Wednesday that the Phase 2 study of mRNA-1273 was amended to offer a booster dose at the 50 microgram dose to interested participants 6 months after their second dose.\n“Neutralizing antibody titers had waned significantly prior to boosting at approximately 6 months. A booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level boosted neutralizing titers significantly above the Phase 3 benchmark,” the company said.\nLast month, the FDA approved a booster dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for immunocompromised individuals who have already received two shots citing the need for extra protection.\nOn Monday, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scientist Sara Oliver said at an advisory group meeting thatdata required to evaluate booster shots for the general population is limited.\nPrice Action:On Wednesday, Moderna shares closed nearly 3.5% higher at $389.94 in the regular session and rose 0.81% higher to $393.10 in the after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835777268,"gmtCreate":1629760093454,"gmtModify":1633682734592,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Insightful read","listText":"Insightful read","text":"Insightful read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835777268","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SSNLF":"三星电子","ASML":"阿斯麦","GOOG":"谷歌","QCOM":"高通","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","SNPS":"新思科技","GOOGL":"谷歌A","TSM":"台积电","CDNS":"铿腾电子","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","ON":"安森美半导体","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ON":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832409680,"gmtCreate":1629673511640,"gmtModify":1633683513152,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832409680","repostId":"1133515985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832169929,"gmtCreate":1629598765861,"gmtModify":1633683862741,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stick with index","listText":"Stick with index","text":"Stick with index","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832169929","repostId":"2160176501","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832187756,"gmtCreate":1629598721775,"gmtModify":1633683863770,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832187756","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SSNLF":"三星电子","ASML":"阿斯麦","GOOG":"谷歌","QCOM":"高通","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","SNPS":"新思科技","GOOGL":"谷歌A","TSM":"台积电","CDNS":"铿腾电子","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","ON":"安森美半导体","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ON":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833283935,"gmtCreate":1629245201427,"gmtModify":1633686323649,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833283935","repostId":"2160880977","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839615227,"gmtCreate":1629156413069,"gmtModify":1633687045982,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839615227","repostId":"2160278866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830223601,"gmtCreate":1629076696803,"gmtModify":1633687606627,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wait","listText":"Wait","text":"Wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830223601","repostId":"1144073354","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144073354","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628904044,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144073354?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 09:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow, S&P End Week at Record Highs. It’s Not That Exciting.<blockquote>道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数周末创下历史新高。没那么刺激。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144073354","media":"Barrons","summary":"Adventure. Excitement. The stock market doesn’t seem to crave these things lately. Investors should ","content":"<p>Adventure. Excitement. The stock market doesn’t seem to crave these things lately. Investors should hope it stays that way.</p><p><blockquote>冒险。兴奋。最近股市似乎并不渴望这些东西。投资者应该希望这种情况保持下去。</blockquote></p><p> It wasn’t quite like watching paint dry this past week, but it wasn’t that far off, either. Earnings reports were few and far between, the most prominent coming from Walt Disney (ticker: DIS) and eBay (EBAY). The economic news, including July’s consumer-price data, didn’t contain any shockers. And while the S&amp;P 500 closed the week on a streak of four new highs, one of them was by less than a quarter of&nbsp;a point. The index rose 0.7%, to 4468.00, while the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;gained 306.87 points, or 0.9%, to 35,515.38. The&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;dipped 0.1%. to 14,822.90.</p><p><blockquote>这不太像在过去的一周里看着油漆变干，但也没有那么遥远。收益报告很少，其中最突出的来自华特迪士尼（股票代码：DIS）和eBay(EBAY)。包括7月份消费者价格数据在内的经济新闻没有任何令人震惊的内容。尽管标普500本周连续四次创下新高，但其中一次涨幅不到四分之一个百分点。该指数上涨0.7%，至4468.00点，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨306.87点，即0.9%，至35,515.38点。纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.1%。至14,822.90。</blockquote></p><p> Exuberance this ain’t.</p><p><blockquote>繁荣这不是。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Stock Prices Are Poised to Keep Rising</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么股价将持续上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Still, there was some action underneath the surface. Tech,particularly chip stockslikeMicron Technology(MU),Lam Research(LRCX), andApplied Materials(AMAT), took it on the chin, while banks, includingGoldman Sachs Group(GS), and industrials such asCaterpillar(CAT), soared. And theInvesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weightexchange-traded fund (RSP) gained 0.8% on the week, outpacing the market-cap-weighted version.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，表面之下还是有一些行动。科技股，尤其是美光科技(MU)、泛林研究(LRCX)和应用材料(AMAT)等芯片股表现强劲，而高盛集团(GS)等银行股和卡特彼勒(CAT)等工业股则飙升。景顺标普500等权重交易所交易基金(RSP)本周上涨0.8%，超过市值加权版本。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d14ffc0d585bc642e9dfa4eebe4b998b\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That suggests that&nbsp;the stock market is rotating&nbsp;once again, out of tech and other growth stocks, which had been outperforming since May, and back into stocks that benefit from the strength of the U.S. economy, says Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. “A lot of rotation in constituents can fuel a bull market,” she says, noting that if more stocks start winning, it’s only a matter of time before the small-cap&nbsp;Russell 2000 index&nbsp;does, too.</p><p><blockquote>Fairlead Strategies创始人凯蒂·斯托克顿(Katie Stockton)表示，这表明股市再次轮动，从5月份以来表现出色的科技股和其他成长型股转向受益于美国经济强劲的股票。她表示：“成分股的大量轮换可以推动牛市。”她指出，如果更多股票开始上涨，那么小盘股罗素2000指数也会上涨只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> That cyclicals have started breaking out again is impressive, particularly given the nonstop focus on the Covid-19 Delta variant. Whether it’s about states like&nbsp;Mississippi&nbsp;and&nbsp;Florida, or the Food and Drug Administration’s&nbsp;approval of a vaccine booster&nbsp;shot for people with compromised immune systems, renewed pandemic fears should have hit those stocks hard. That they didn’t says a lot about what investors are thinking.</p><p><blockquote>周期性再次开始爆发令人印象深刻，特别是考虑到人们对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的持续关注。无论是密西西比州和佛罗里达州等州，还是美国食品和药物管理局批准为免疫系统受损的人注射疫苗加强针，新的大流行担忧应该会对这些股票造成沉重打击。他们并没有充分说明投资者的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “If you just look at the market action this week, it’s saying the Delta variant is a public-health crisis, but not an economic crisis,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.</p><p><blockquote>CIBC Private Wealth US首席投资官Dave Donabedian表示：“如果你只看本周的市场走势，就会发现德尔塔变异毒株是一场公共卫生危机，而不是经济危机。”</blockquote></p><p> At some point, the boredom will end, and the market will get more volatile. And the biggest risk might be that investors use the volatility to push the entire stock market higher, notes BTIG’s Julian Emanuel, treating it like one big meme stock.</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，无聊会结束，市场会变得更加波动。BTIG的朱利安·伊曼纽尔(Julian Emanuel)指出，最大的风险可能是投资者利用波动性推高整个股市，将其视为一只大型模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> “[The] dramatic price action in ‘meme stocks’ both old and new raises the probability that higher volatility could result in an ‘altered reality’ exception,” he writes. “And there is only one previous exception where volatility went up and stocks continued to go up, and up, and up. At least for a while.”</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“新旧‘模因股票’的剧烈价格走势增加了波动性上升可能导致‘现实改变’例外的可能性。”“之前只有一个例外，波动性上升，股市继续上涨，上涨，上涨。至少在一段时间内是这样。”</blockquote></p><p> That, of course, was in 1999. Let’s hope we avoid the kind of excitement that followed.</p><p><blockquote>当然，那是在1999年。希望我们能避免随之而来的那种兴奋。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow, S&P End Week at Record Highs. It’s Not That Exciting.<blockquote>道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数周末创下历史新高。没那么刺激。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow, S&P End Week at Record Highs. It’s Not That Exciting.<blockquote>道琼斯指数和标准普尔指数周末创下历史新高。没那么刺激。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 09:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Adventure. Excitement. The stock market doesn’t seem to crave these things lately. Investors should hope it stays that way.</p><p><blockquote>冒险。兴奋。最近股市似乎并不渴望这些东西。投资者应该希望这种情况保持下去。</blockquote></p><p> It wasn’t quite like watching paint dry this past week, but it wasn’t that far off, either. Earnings reports were few and far between, the most prominent coming from Walt Disney (ticker: DIS) and eBay (EBAY). The economic news, including July’s consumer-price data, didn’t contain any shockers. And while the S&amp;P 500 closed the week on a streak of four new highs, one of them was by less than a quarter of&nbsp;a point. The index rose 0.7%, to 4468.00, while the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;gained 306.87 points, or 0.9%, to 35,515.38. The&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;dipped 0.1%. to 14,822.90.</p><p><blockquote>这不太像在过去的一周里看着油漆变干，但也没有那么遥远。收益报告很少，其中最突出的来自华特迪士尼（股票代码：DIS）和eBay(EBAY)。包括7月份消费者价格数据在内的经济新闻没有任何令人震惊的内容。尽管标普500本周连续四次创下新高，但其中一次涨幅不到四分之一个百分点。该指数上涨0.7%，至4468.00点，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨306.87点，即0.9%，至35,515.38点。纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.1%。至14,822.90。</blockquote></p><p> Exuberance this ain’t.</p><p><blockquote>繁荣这不是。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Stock Prices Are Poised to Keep Rising</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么股价将持续上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Still, there was some action underneath the surface. Tech,particularly chip stockslikeMicron Technology(MU),Lam Research(LRCX), andApplied Materials(AMAT), took it on the chin, while banks, includingGoldman Sachs Group(GS), and industrials such asCaterpillar(CAT), soared. And theInvesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weightexchange-traded fund (RSP) gained 0.8% on the week, outpacing the market-cap-weighted version.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，表面之下还是有一些行动。科技股，尤其是美光科技(MU)、泛林研究(LRCX)和应用材料(AMAT)等芯片股表现强劲，而高盛集团(GS)等银行股和卡特彼勒(CAT)等工业股则飙升。景顺标普500等权重交易所交易基金(RSP)本周上涨0.8%，超过市值加权版本。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d14ffc0d585bc642e9dfa4eebe4b998b\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That suggests that&nbsp;the stock market is rotating&nbsp;once again, out of tech and other growth stocks, which had been outperforming since May, and back into stocks that benefit from the strength of the U.S. economy, says Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. “A lot of rotation in constituents can fuel a bull market,” she says, noting that if more stocks start winning, it’s only a matter of time before the small-cap&nbsp;Russell 2000 index&nbsp;does, too.</p><p><blockquote>Fairlead Strategies创始人凯蒂·斯托克顿(Katie Stockton)表示，这表明股市再次轮动，从5月份以来表现出色的科技股和其他成长型股转向受益于美国经济强劲的股票。她表示：“成分股的大量轮换可以推动牛市。”她指出，如果更多股票开始上涨，那么小盘股罗素2000指数也会上涨只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> That cyclicals have started breaking out again is impressive, particularly given the nonstop focus on the Covid-19 Delta variant. Whether it’s about states like&nbsp;Mississippi&nbsp;and&nbsp;Florida, or the Food and Drug Administration’s&nbsp;approval of a vaccine booster&nbsp;shot for people with compromised immune systems, renewed pandemic fears should have hit those stocks hard. That they didn’t says a lot about what investors are thinking.</p><p><blockquote>周期性再次开始爆发令人印象深刻，特别是考虑到人们对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的持续关注。无论是密西西比州和佛罗里达州等州，还是美国食品和药物管理局批准为免疫系统受损的人注射疫苗加强针，新的大流行担忧应该会对这些股票造成沉重打击。他们并没有充分说明投资者的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “If you just look at the market action this week, it’s saying the Delta variant is a public-health crisis, but not an economic crisis,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.</p><p><blockquote>CIBC Private Wealth US首席投资官Dave Donabedian表示：“如果你只看本周的市场走势，就会发现德尔塔变异毒株是一场公共卫生危机，而不是经济危机。”</blockquote></p><p> At some point, the boredom will end, and the market will get more volatile. And the biggest risk might be that investors use the volatility to push the entire stock market higher, notes BTIG’s Julian Emanuel, treating it like one big meme stock.</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，无聊会结束，市场会变得更加波动。BTIG的朱利安·伊曼纽尔(Julian Emanuel)指出，最大的风险可能是投资者利用波动性推高整个股市，将其视为一只大型模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> “[The] dramatic price action in ‘meme stocks’ both old and new raises the probability that higher volatility could result in an ‘altered reality’ exception,” he writes. “And there is only one previous exception where volatility went up and stocks continued to go up, and up, and up. At least for a while.”</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“新旧‘模因股票’的剧烈价格走势增加了波动性上升可能导致‘现实改变’例外的可能性。”“之前只有一个例外，波动性上升，股市继续上涨，上涨，上涨。至少在一段时间内是这样。”</blockquote></p><p> That, of course, was in 1999. Let’s hope we avoid the kind of excitement that followed.</p><p><blockquote>当然，那是在1999年。希望我们能避免随之而来的那种兴奋。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-stock-market-sp-500-51628901659?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-stock-market-sp-500-51628901659?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144073354","content_text":"Adventure. Excitement. The stock market doesn’t seem to crave these things lately. Investors should hope it stays that way.\nIt wasn’t quite like watching paint dry this past week, but it wasn’t that far off, either. Earnings reports were few and far between, the most prominent coming from Walt Disney (ticker: DIS) and eBay (EBAY). The economic news, including July’s consumer-price data, didn’t contain any shockers. And while the S&P 500 closed the week on a streak of four new highs, one of them was by less than a quarter of a point. The index rose 0.7%, to 4468.00, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 306.87 points, or 0.9%, to 35,515.38. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.1%. to 14,822.90.\nExuberance this ain’t.\nWhy Stock Prices Are Poised to Keep Rising\nStill, there was some action underneath the surface. Tech,particularly chip stockslikeMicron Technology(MU),Lam Research(LRCX), andApplied Materials(AMAT), took it on the chin, while banks, includingGoldman Sachs Group(GS), and industrials such asCaterpillar(CAT), soared. And theInvesco S&P 500 Equal Weightexchange-traded fund (RSP) gained 0.8% on the week, outpacing the market-cap-weighted version.\n\nThat suggests that the stock market is rotating once again, out of tech and other growth stocks, which had been outperforming since May, and back into stocks that benefit from the strength of the U.S. economy, says Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. “A lot of rotation in constituents can fuel a bull market,” she says, noting that if more stocks start winning, it’s only a matter of time before the small-cap Russell 2000 index does, too.\nThat cyclicals have started breaking out again is impressive, particularly given the nonstop focus on the Covid-19 Delta variant. Whether it’s about states like Mississippi and Florida, or the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of a vaccine booster shot for people with compromised immune systems, renewed pandemic fears should have hit those stocks hard. That they didn’t says a lot about what investors are thinking.\n“If you just look at the market action this week, it’s saying the Delta variant is a public-health crisis, but not an economic crisis,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nAt some point, the boredom will end, and the market will get more volatile. And the biggest risk might be that investors use the volatility to push the entire stock market higher, notes BTIG’s Julian Emanuel, treating it like one big meme stock.\n“[The] dramatic price action in ‘meme stocks’ both old and new raises the probability that higher volatility could result in an ‘altered reality’ exception,” he writes. “And there is only one previous exception where volatility went up and stocks continued to go up, and up, and up. At least for a while.”\nThat, of course, was in 1999. Let’s hope we avoid the kind of excitement that followed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893413418,"gmtCreate":1628295035434,"gmtModify":1633751957348,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read!","listText":"Read!","text":"Read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893413418","repostId":"1183941926","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183941926","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628255252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183941926?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 21:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How 10 of the world’s smartest investors can help you build your perfect portfolio<blockquote>世界上10位最聪明的投资者如何帮助您建立完美的投资组合</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183941926","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Listen to Jeremy Siegel, Charles Ellis, Jack Bogle, Robert Shiller and others.The other four are portfolio managers, investors and bestselling authors who have sold millions of investment books, including The Vanguard Group’s founder Jack Bogle; the “Bond Guru,” Marty Leibowitz; the “Wisest Man on Wall Street” and Greenwich Associates founder Charles Ellis; and the “Wizard of Wharton,” Jeremy Siegel.As the creator of the first index mutual fund, Bogle’s portfolio was all about stock and bond ind","content":"<p>  <b>Listen to Jeremy Siegel, Charles Ellis, Jack Bogle, Robert Shiller and others.</b>  Is there a Perfect Portfolio for investors?</p><p><blockquote><b>听听杰里米·西格尔、查尔斯·埃利斯、杰克·博格尔、罗伯特·席勒等人的意见。</b>投资者有完美的投资组合吗？</blockquote></p><p> We posed this question to 10 of the most respected pioneers in the investment community. Six have Nobel Prizes in Economics: Harry Markowitz, the founder of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis of the modern investment portfolio; his protégé William Sharpe, creator of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the beta risk measure that changed how we think about risk and reward in the financial markets; Eugene Fama, who developed the Efficient Market Hypothesis; Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, two of the co-creators of the Black-Scholes/Merton option pricing model; and Robert Shiller, the behavioral economist whose work challenged the notion of market efficiency.</p><p><blockquote>我们向投资界最受尊敬的10位先驱提出了这个问题。六位获得诺贝尔经济学奖：哈里·马科维茨，现代投资组合理论的创始人，现代投资组合的基础；他的得意门生威廉·夏普（William Sharpe）是资本资产定价模型（CAPM）和贝塔风险衡量标准的创始人，改变了我们对金融市场风险和回报的看法；尤金·法玛，提出了有效市场假说；迈伦·斯科尔斯和罗伯特·默顿，布莱克-斯科尔斯/默顿期权定价模型的两位共同创始人；还有行为经济学家罗伯特·席勒，他的工作挑战了市场效率的概念。</blockquote></p><p> The other four are portfolio managers, investors and bestselling authors who have sold millions of investment books, including The Vanguard Group’s founder Jack Bogle; the “Bond Guru,” Marty Leibowitz; the “Wisest Man on Wall Street” and Greenwich Associates founder Charles Ellis; and the “Wizard of Wharton,” Jeremy Siegel.</p><p><blockquote>另外四位是投资组合经理、投资者和畅销书作家，他们已售出数百万本投资书籍，其中包括先锋集团创始人杰克·博格尔；“邦德大师”马蒂·莱博维茨；“华尔街最聪明的人”、格林威治联合创始人查尔斯·埃利斯；还有“沃顿商学院的巫师”杰里米·西格尔。</blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise that there isn’t consensus among their suggestions, given their varied backgrounds and interests. The different viewpoints of these financial luminaries illustrate the complexity of portfolio management—one size clearly doesn’t fit all.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于他们不同的背景和兴趣，他们的建议没有达成共识也就不足为奇了。这些金融名人的不同观点说明了投资组合管理的复杂性——一种尺寸显然不能适合所有人。</blockquote></p><p> Think of the Perfect Portfolios of our experts as building blocks for your own Perfect Portfolio, collectively capable of accommodating the goals and constraints of all investors, if used in the right combination.</p><p><blockquote>将我们专家的完美投资组合视为您自己的完美投资组合的构建模块，如果以正确的组合使用，它们共同能够适应所有投资者的目标和限制。</blockquote></p><p> Markowitz suggests that first and foremost, you should diversify. Focus only on portfolios of securities, and in particular, those that have the highest level of expected returns for a given level of risk, Markowitz’s famous efficient frontier. The same concept applies across asset classes like bonds, real estate and commodities. The key for the investor is to find securities and asset classes with low correlations to each other, so that movements in one are not necessarily reflected in the others.</p><p><blockquote>马科维茨建议，首先也是最重要的，你应该多元化。只关注证券投资组合，特别是那些在给定风险水平下具有最高预期回报的证券，即马科维茨著名的有效前沿。同样的概念也适用于债券、房地产和大宗商品等资产类别。投资者的关键是找到彼此相关性较低的证券和资产类别，这样一种证券和资产类别的变动不一定反映在其他证券和资产类别中。</blockquote></p><p> Sharpe’s Perfect Portfolio is just what his famous Capital Asset Pricing Model suggests: investing in the market as a whole. Sharpe recommends a U.S. total stock market fund, a non-U.S. total stock market fund, a U.S. total bond market fund, and a non-U.S. total bond market fund.</p><p><blockquote>夏普的完美投资组合正是他著名的资本资产定价模型所暗示的：投资于整个市场。夏普推荐一只美国总股市基金、一只非美国总股市基金、一只美国总债市基金、一只非美国总债市基金。</blockquote></p><p> Fama and his collaborator Ken French created a model that starts with Sharpe’s CAPM and augments it with two other factors. One captures the difference in returns between value and growth stocks, while the other captures the difference between stocks in companies with small and large market capitalizations. Fama suggests tilting your diversified portfolio toward value stocks and small-cap stocks, both of which tend to do well over time.</p><p><blockquote>Fama和他的合作者Ken French创建了一个模型，从Sharpe的CAPM开始，并用另外两个因素对其进行了增强。一个捕捉价值型股票和成长型股票之间的回报差异，而另一个捕捉小市值和大市值公司股票之间的差异。Fama建议将您的多元化投资组合向价值股和小盘股倾斜，这两种股票随着时间的推移往往会表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> As the creator of the first index mutual fund, Bogle’s portfolio was all about stock and bond index funds, such as Vanguard’s ETF that tracks the S&amp;P 500 index SPX, +0.60%. His mantra was to lower your costs through index funds and not take actions that might destroy value: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”</p><p><blockquote>作为第一只指数共同基金的创始人，Bogle的投资组合完全是股票和债券指数基金，例如Vanguard跟踪标普500指数SPX的ETF，+0.60%。他的口头禅是通过指数基金降低成本，不要采取可能破坏价值的行动：“什么都不要做，就站在那里！”</blockquote></p><p> For Scholes, the Perfect Portfolio is about risk management. Your investment success will depend most on avoiding the downside “tail risks,” rare but severe stock market downturns such as the financial crisis of 2007–2009 or the COVID-19 pandemic, while capitalizing on the positive “tail gains.”</p><p><blockquote>对于斯科尔斯来说，完美的投资组合就是风险管理。您的投资成功将主要取决于避免下行“尾部风险”，即罕见但严重的股市低迷，例如2007-2009年的金融危机或COVID-19大流行，同时利用积极的“尾部收益”。</blockquote></p><p> Pay attention to what the derivatives markets such as the VIX volatility index VIX, -1.39% are telling you. For example, when the VIX is at a level below its historical average, you may feel more comfortable investing a greater proportion of your assets in risky stocks.</p><p><blockquote>关注VIX波动率指数VIX,-1.39%等衍生品市场告诉你什么。例如，当VIX处于低于历史平均水平的水平时，您可能会更愿意将更大比例的资产投资于风险股票。</blockquote></p><p> For Merton, ultimately, the Perfect Portfolio should be your very own risk-free asset, like the inflation-protected government bond TIPS. For your retirement goal, ideally you would take your savings at retirement, and buy an annuity that would provide a lifetime income to meet your anticipated needs.</p><p><blockquote>对于默顿来说，最终，完美的投资组合应该是您自己的无风险资产，例如通胀保值政府债券TIPS。对于您的退休目标，理想情况下，您应该在退休时拿出您的积蓄，购买一份年金，提供终身收入以满足您的预期需求。</blockquote></p><p> Leibowitz’s Perfect Portfolio is about the amount of risk you can personally bear. Be prepared to try to make some tough judgment calls, and consider all of your circumstances, including potential life events, current taxes and estate taxes. In addition to equities, you should include bonds to reduce its overall volatility. Have a contingency plan to deal with serious adverse events.</p><p><blockquote>莱博维茨的完美投资组合是关于你个人可以承受的风险大小。评级，请准备好做出一些艰难的判断，并考虑您的所有情况，包括潜在的生活事件、当前税收和遗产税。除了股票，你还应该包括债券，以降低其整体波动性。有应对严重不良事件的应急计划。</blockquote></p><p> For Shiller, your Perfect Portfolio should be widely diversified, not only across major asset classes, but internationally as well. Place a heavier than typical weight in stocks around the world, where Shiller’s CAPE ratios—that is, cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios—are relatively low.</p><p><blockquote>对于希勒来说，你的完美投资组合应该是广泛多元化的，不仅要跨越主要资产类别，还要跨越国际。对世界各地的股票给予比通常更重的权重，这些股票的席勒CAPE比率（即周期性调整后的市盈率）相对较低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Ellis, one of the original advocates of passive investing, your Perfect Portfolio should of course include index funds, especially if you want to have a good chance of being in the top 20% of funds over the next 20 years. You should invest in bond index funds and low-cost international index funds, such as the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) index. Pay attention to your taxes.</p><p><blockquote>对于被动投资的最初倡导者之一埃利斯来说，你的完美投资组合当然应该包括指数基金，尤其是如果你想在未来20年内有很好的机会进入前20%的基金。您应该投资债券指数基金和低成本的国际指数基金，例如MSCI EAFE（欧洲、澳大拉西亚和远东）指数。注意你的税收。</blockquote></p><p> And Siegel encourages you to have reasonable expectations in line with financial history, no surprise for the author of the bestselling “Stocks for the Long Run”. The longer your investment horizon, the greater proportion of your Perfect Portfolio should be in stocks. Consider developing-country stocks. For fixed-income investments, consider TIPS.</p><p><blockquote>西格尔鼓励你有符合金融历史的合理预期，这对于畅销书《长期股票》的作者来说并不奇怪。你的投资期限越长，你的完美投资组合中股票的比例就应该越大。以发展中国家的股票为例。对于固定收益投资，请考虑提示。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, as you build your Perfect Portfolio, reflect on your degree of risk aversion, your earning power, the magnitude of your current and future desired wealth, and the magnitude of your current and future financial needs. To assist you, we have created a four-question survey to help you discover where you fit in among 16 types of investors. It then points you toward your Perfect Portfolio and an action that may help you achieve it.</p><p><blockquote>最后，当你建立完美的投资组合时，反思你的风险规避程度、你的盈利能力、你当前和未来想要的财富的规模，以及你当前和未来的财务需求的规模。为了帮助您，我们创建了一个包含四个问题的调查，帮助您发现自己在16种类型的投资者中的位置。然后，它会给你指出你的完美投资组合和一个可能帮助你实现它的行动。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How 10 of the world’s smartest investors can help you build your perfect portfolio<blockquote>世界上10位最聪明的投资者如何帮助您建立完美的投资组合</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow 10 of the world’s smartest investors can help you build your perfect portfolio<blockquote>世界上10位最聪明的投资者如何帮助您建立完美的投资组合</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 21:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Listen to Jeremy Siegel, Charles Ellis, Jack Bogle, Robert Shiller and others.</b>  Is there a Perfect Portfolio for investors?</p><p><blockquote><b>听听杰里米·西格尔、查尔斯·埃利斯、杰克·博格尔、罗伯特·席勒等人的意见。</b>投资者有完美的投资组合吗？</blockquote></p><p> We posed this question to 10 of the most respected pioneers in the investment community. Six have Nobel Prizes in Economics: Harry Markowitz, the founder of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis of the modern investment portfolio; his protégé William Sharpe, creator of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the beta risk measure that changed how we think about risk and reward in the financial markets; Eugene Fama, who developed the Efficient Market Hypothesis; Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, two of the co-creators of the Black-Scholes/Merton option pricing model; and Robert Shiller, the behavioral economist whose work challenged the notion of market efficiency.</p><p><blockquote>我们向投资界最受尊敬的10位先驱提出了这个问题。六位获得诺贝尔经济学奖：哈里·马科维茨，现代投资组合理论的创始人，现代投资组合的基础；他的得意门生威廉·夏普（William Sharpe）是资本资产定价模型（CAPM）和贝塔风险衡量标准的创始人，改变了我们对金融市场风险和回报的看法；尤金·法玛，提出了有效市场假说；迈伦·斯科尔斯和罗伯特·默顿，布莱克-斯科尔斯/默顿期权定价模型的两位共同创始人；还有行为经济学家罗伯特·席勒，他的工作挑战了市场效率的概念。</blockquote></p><p> The other four are portfolio managers, investors and bestselling authors who have sold millions of investment books, including The Vanguard Group’s founder Jack Bogle; the “Bond Guru,” Marty Leibowitz; the “Wisest Man on Wall Street” and Greenwich Associates founder Charles Ellis; and the “Wizard of Wharton,” Jeremy Siegel.</p><p><blockquote>另外四位是投资组合经理、投资者和畅销书作家，他们已售出数百万本投资书籍，其中包括先锋集团创始人杰克·博格尔；“邦德大师”马蒂·莱博维茨；“华尔街最聪明的人”、格林威治联合创始人查尔斯·埃利斯；还有“沃顿商学院的巫师”杰里米·西格尔。</blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise that there isn’t consensus among their suggestions, given their varied backgrounds and interests. The different viewpoints of these financial luminaries illustrate the complexity of portfolio management—one size clearly doesn’t fit all.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于他们不同的背景和兴趣，他们的建议没有达成共识也就不足为奇了。这些金融名人的不同观点说明了投资组合管理的复杂性——一种尺寸显然不能适合所有人。</blockquote></p><p> Think of the Perfect Portfolios of our experts as building blocks for your own Perfect Portfolio, collectively capable of accommodating the goals and constraints of all investors, if used in the right combination.</p><p><blockquote>将我们专家的完美投资组合视为您自己的完美投资组合的构建模块，如果以正确的组合使用，它们共同能够适应所有投资者的目标和限制。</blockquote></p><p> Markowitz suggests that first and foremost, you should diversify. Focus only on portfolios of securities, and in particular, those that have the highest level of expected returns for a given level of risk, Markowitz’s famous efficient frontier. The same concept applies across asset classes like bonds, real estate and commodities. The key for the investor is to find securities and asset classes with low correlations to each other, so that movements in one are not necessarily reflected in the others.</p><p><blockquote>马科维茨建议，首先也是最重要的，你应该多元化。只关注证券投资组合，特别是那些在给定风险水平下具有最高预期回报的证券，即马科维茨著名的有效前沿。同样的概念也适用于债券、房地产和大宗商品等资产类别。投资者的关键是找到彼此相关性较低的证券和资产类别，这样一种证券和资产类别的变动不一定反映在其他证券和资产类别中。</blockquote></p><p> Sharpe’s Perfect Portfolio is just what his famous Capital Asset Pricing Model suggests: investing in the market as a whole. Sharpe recommends a U.S. total stock market fund, a non-U.S. total stock market fund, a U.S. total bond market fund, and a non-U.S. total bond market fund.</p><p><blockquote>夏普的完美投资组合正是他著名的资本资产定价模型所暗示的：投资于整个市场。夏普推荐一只美国总股市基金、一只非美国总股市基金、一只美国总债市基金、一只非美国总债市基金。</blockquote></p><p> Fama and his collaborator Ken French created a model that starts with Sharpe’s CAPM and augments it with two other factors. One captures the difference in returns between value and growth stocks, while the other captures the difference between stocks in companies with small and large market capitalizations. Fama suggests tilting your diversified portfolio toward value stocks and small-cap stocks, both of which tend to do well over time.</p><p><blockquote>Fama和他的合作者Ken French创建了一个模型，从Sharpe的CAPM开始，并用另外两个因素对其进行了增强。一个捕捉价值型股票和成长型股票之间的回报差异，而另一个捕捉小市值和大市值公司股票之间的差异。Fama建议将您的多元化投资组合向价值股和小盘股倾斜，这两种股票随着时间的推移往往会表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> As the creator of the first index mutual fund, Bogle’s portfolio was all about stock and bond index funds, such as Vanguard’s ETF that tracks the S&amp;P 500 index SPX, +0.60%. His mantra was to lower your costs through index funds and not take actions that might destroy value: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”</p><p><blockquote>作为第一只指数共同基金的创始人，Bogle的投资组合完全是股票和债券指数基金，例如Vanguard跟踪标普500指数SPX的ETF，+0.60%。他的口头禅是通过指数基金降低成本，不要采取可能破坏价值的行动：“什么都不要做，就站在那里！”</blockquote></p><p> For Scholes, the Perfect Portfolio is about risk management. Your investment success will depend most on avoiding the downside “tail risks,” rare but severe stock market downturns such as the financial crisis of 2007–2009 or the COVID-19 pandemic, while capitalizing on the positive “tail gains.”</p><p><blockquote>对于斯科尔斯来说，完美的投资组合就是风险管理。您的投资成功将主要取决于避免下行“尾部风险”，即罕见但严重的股市低迷，例如2007-2009年的金融危机或COVID-19大流行，同时利用积极的“尾部收益”。</blockquote></p><p> Pay attention to what the derivatives markets such as the VIX volatility index VIX, -1.39% are telling you. For example, when the VIX is at a level below its historical average, you may feel more comfortable investing a greater proportion of your assets in risky stocks.</p><p><blockquote>关注VIX波动率指数VIX,-1.39%等衍生品市场告诉你什么。例如，当VIX处于低于历史平均水平的水平时，您可能会更愿意将更大比例的资产投资于风险股票。</blockquote></p><p> For Merton, ultimately, the Perfect Portfolio should be your very own risk-free asset, like the inflation-protected government bond TIPS. For your retirement goal, ideally you would take your savings at retirement, and buy an annuity that would provide a lifetime income to meet your anticipated needs.</p><p><blockquote>对于默顿来说，最终，完美的投资组合应该是您自己的无风险资产，例如通胀保值政府债券TIPS。对于您的退休目标，理想情况下，您应该在退休时拿出您的积蓄，购买一份年金，提供终身收入以满足您的预期需求。</blockquote></p><p> Leibowitz’s Perfect Portfolio is about the amount of risk you can personally bear. Be prepared to try to make some tough judgment calls, and consider all of your circumstances, including potential life events, current taxes and estate taxes. In addition to equities, you should include bonds to reduce its overall volatility. Have a contingency plan to deal with serious adverse events.</p><p><blockquote>莱博维茨的完美投资组合是关于你个人可以承受的风险大小。评级，请准备好做出一些艰难的判断，并考虑您的所有情况，包括潜在的生活事件、当前税收和遗产税。除了股票，你还应该包括债券，以降低其整体波动性。有应对严重不良事件的应急计划。</blockquote></p><p> For Shiller, your Perfect Portfolio should be widely diversified, not only across major asset classes, but internationally as well. Place a heavier than typical weight in stocks around the world, where Shiller’s CAPE ratios—that is, cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios—are relatively low.</p><p><blockquote>对于希勒来说，你的完美投资组合应该是广泛多元化的，不仅要跨越主要资产类别，还要跨越国际。对世界各地的股票给予比通常更重的权重，这些股票的席勒CAPE比率（即周期性调整后的市盈率）相对较低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Ellis, one of the original advocates of passive investing, your Perfect Portfolio should of course include index funds, especially if you want to have a good chance of being in the top 20% of funds over the next 20 years. You should invest in bond index funds and low-cost international index funds, such as the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) index. Pay attention to your taxes.</p><p><blockquote>对于被动投资的最初倡导者之一埃利斯来说，你的完美投资组合当然应该包括指数基金，尤其是如果你想在未来20年内有很好的机会进入前20%的基金。您应该投资债券指数基金和低成本的国际指数基金，例如MSCI EAFE（欧洲、澳大拉西亚和远东）指数。注意你的税收。</blockquote></p><p> And Siegel encourages you to have reasonable expectations in line with financial history, no surprise for the author of the bestselling “Stocks for the Long Run”. The longer your investment horizon, the greater proportion of your Perfect Portfolio should be in stocks. Consider developing-country stocks. For fixed-income investments, consider TIPS.</p><p><blockquote>西格尔鼓励你有符合金融历史的合理预期，这对于畅销书《长期股票》的作者来说并不奇怪。你的投资期限越长，你的完美投资组合中股票的比例就应该越大。以发展中国家的股票为例。对于固定收益投资，请考虑提示。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, as you build your Perfect Portfolio, reflect on your degree of risk aversion, your earning power, the magnitude of your current and future desired wealth, and the magnitude of your current and future financial needs. To assist you, we have created a four-question survey to help you discover where you fit in among 16 types of investors. It then points you toward your Perfect Portfolio and an action that may help you achieve it.</p><p><blockquote>最后，当你建立完美的投资组合时，反思你的风险规避程度、你的盈利能力、你当前和未来想要的财富的规模，以及你当前和未来的财务需求的规模。为了帮助您，我们创建了一个包含四个问题的调查，帮助您发现自己在16种类型的投资者中的位置。然后，它会给你指出你的完美投资组合和一个可能帮助你实现它的行动。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-10-of-the-worlds-smartest-investors-can-help-you-build-your-perfect-portfolio-11628177690?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-10-of-the-worlds-smartest-investors-can-help-you-build-your-perfect-portfolio-11628177690?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183941926","content_text":"Listen to Jeremy Siegel, Charles Ellis, Jack Bogle, Robert Shiller and others.\n\nIs there a Perfect Portfolio for investors?\nWe posed this question to 10 of the most respected pioneers in the investment community. Six have Nobel Prizes in Economics: Harry Markowitz, the founder of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis of the modern investment portfolio; his protégé William Sharpe, creator of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the beta risk measure that changed how we think about risk and reward in the financial markets; Eugene Fama, who developed the Efficient Market Hypothesis; Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, two of the co-creators of the Black-Scholes/Merton option pricing model; and Robert Shiller, the behavioral economist whose work challenged the notion of market efficiency.\nThe other four are portfolio managers, investors and bestselling authors who have sold millions of investment books, including The Vanguard Group’s founder Jack Bogle; the “Bond Guru,” Marty Leibowitz; the “Wisest Man on Wall Street” and Greenwich Associates founder Charles Ellis; and the “Wizard of Wharton,” Jeremy Siegel.\nIt’s no surprise that there isn’t consensus among their suggestions, given their varied backgrounds and interests. The different viewpoints of these financial luminaries illustrate the complexity of portfolio management—one size clearly doesn’t fit all.\nThink of the Perfect Portfolios of our experts as building blocks for your own Perfect Portfolio, collectively capable of accommodating the goals and constraints of all investors, if used in the right combination.\nMarkowitz suggests that first and foremost, you should diversify. Focus only on portfolios of securities, and in particular, those that have the highest level of expected returns for a given level of risk, Markowitz’s famous efficient frontier. The same concept applies across asset classes like bonds, real estate and commodities. The key for the investor is to find securities and asset classes with low correlations to each other, so that movements in one are not necessarily reflected in the others.\nSharpe’s Perfect Portfolio is just what his famous Capital Asset Pricing Model suggests: investing in the market as a whole. Sharpe recommends a U.S. total stock market fund, a non-U.S. total stock market fund, a U.S. total bond market fund, and a non-U.S. total bond market fund.\nFama and his collaborator Ken French created a model that starts with Sharpe’s CAPM and augments it with two other factors. One captures the difference in returns between value and growth stocks, while the other captures the difference between stocks in companies with small and large market capitalizations. Fama suggests tilting your diversified portfolio toward value stocks and small-cap stocks, both of which tend to do well over time.\nAs the creator of the first index mutual fund, Bogle’s portfolio was all about stock and bond index funds, such as Vanguard’s ETF that tracks the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.60%. His mantra was to lower your costs through index funds and not take actions that might destroy value: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”\nFor Scholes, the Perfect Portfolio is about risk management. Your investment success will depend most on avoiding the downside “tail risks,” rare but severe stock market downturns such as the financial crisis of 2007–2009 or the COVID-19 pandemic, while capitalizing on the positive “tail gains.”\nPay attention to what the derivatives markets such as the VIX volatility index VIX, -1.39% are telling you. For example, when the VIX is at a level below its historical average, you may feel more comfortable investing a greater proportion of your assets in risky stocks.\nFor Merton, ultimately, the Perfect Portfolio should be your very own risk-free asset, like the inflation-protected government bond TIPS. For your retirement goal, ideally you would take your savings at retirement, and buy an annuity that would provide a lifetime income to meet your anticipated needs.\nLeibowitz’s Perfect Portfolio is about the amount of risk you can personally bear. Be prepared to try to make some tough judgment calls, and consider all of your circumstances, including potential life events, current taxes and estate taxes. In addition to equities, you should include bonds to reduce its overall volatility. Have a contingency plan to deal with serious adverse events.\nFor Shiller, your Perfect Portfolio should be widely diversified, not only across major asset classes, but internationally as well. Place a heavier than typical weight in stocks around the world, where Shiller’s CAPE ratios—that is, cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios—are relatively low.\nFor Ellis, one of the original advocates of passive investing, your Perfect Portfolio should of course include index funds, especially if you want to have a good chance of being in the top 20% of funds over the next 20 years. You should invest in bond index funds and low-cost international index funds, such as the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) index. Pay attention to your taxes.\nAnd Siegel encourages you to have reasonable expectations in line with financial history, no surprise for the author of the bestselling “Stocks for the Long Run”. The longer your investment horizon, the greater proportion of your Perfect Portfolio should be in stocks. Consider developing-country stocks. For fixed-income investments, consider TIPS.\nFinally, as you build your Perfect Portfolio, reflect on your degree of risk aversion, your earning power, the magnitude of your current and future desired wealth, and the magnitude of your current and future financial needs. To assist you, we have created a four-question survey to help you discover where you fit in among 16 types of investors. It then points you toward your Perfect Portfolio and an action that may help you achieve it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893995648,"gmtCreate":1628226976984,"gmtModify":1633752406964,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893995648","repostId":"1128779869","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899968294,"gmtCreate":1628152642618,"gmtModify":1633753118050,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold!","listText":"Hold!","text":"Hold!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899968294","repostId":"1122849992","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805490720,"gmtCreate":1627896307260,"gmtModify":1633755505575,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805490720","repostId":"1106026316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106026316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627860338,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106026316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 07:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square Agrees to Acquire Afterpay for $29 Billion in All-Stock Deal<blockquote>Square同意以290亿美元的全股票交易收购Afterpay</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106026316","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"(Updated on August 2, 2021 ET 04:19 AM)\n\n\nSquare fell over 5% in premarket trading.\n\nAustralian inst","content":"<p><i>(Updated on August 2, 2021 ET&nbsp;04:19 AM)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>（更新于美国东部时间2021年8月2日凌晨04:19）</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c9726bd034485ce2cd75b32ca6f291\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <b>Square fell over 5% in premarket trading.</b>  Australian installment-payment company positions its service as a cheaper, more responsible alternative to a credit card</p><p><blockquote><b>Square在盘前交易中下跌超过5%。</b>澳大利亚分期付款公司将其服务定位为更便宜、更负责任的信用卡替代品</blockquote></p><p> YDNEY—SquareInc.&nbsp;has agreed to an all-stock deal valued at around $29 billion to acquire Australia’s&nbsp;AfterpayLtd., an installment-payment company that positions its service as a cheaper and more responsible alternative to a credit card.</p><p><blockquote>Ydney-SquareInc.已同意一项价值约290亿美元的全股票交易，收购澳大利亚AfterpayLtd.，这是一家分期付款公司，将其服务定位为更便宜、更负责任的信用卡替代品。</blockquote></p><p> Square said it plans to integrate Afterpay into its Seller and Cash App business units, which would allow more retailers to offer so-called buy now, pay later services at checkout.</p><p><blockquote>Square表示，计划将Afterpay整合到其卖家和现金应用程序业务部门中，这将允许更多零售商在结账时提供所谓的“先买后付”服务。</blockquote></p><p> Afterpay’s technology allows users to&nbsp;pay for goods in four interest-free installments, while receiving the goods immediately. Customers pay a fee only if they miss an automated payment, a transgression that also locks their account until the balance is repaid. Afterpay says this limits bad debts, particularly in a downturn when job security is shaky and household finances are stretched.</p><p><blockquote>Afterpay的技术允许用户分四期免息分期付款购买商品，同时立即收到商品。客户只有在错过自动付款时才需要支付费用，这种违规行为也会锁定他们的账户，直到余额被偿还。Afterpay表示，这限制了坏账，特别是在经济低迷时期，工作保障不稳定，家庭财务捉襟见肘。</blockquote></p><p> Most of Afterpay’s revenue comes from retail merchants, which pay a percentage of the value of each order placed by customers, plus a fixed fee. The company is expanding across the U.S. through deals with retailers including Anthropologie and Free People.</p><p><blockquote>Afterpay的大部分收入来自零售商，零售商支付客户每笔订单价值的一定比例，外加固定费用。该公司正在通过与Anthropologie和Free People等零售商的交易在美国扩张。</blockquote></p><p> “Square and Afterpay have a shared purpose,” said Jack Dorsey, Square’s chief executive. “We built our business to make the financial system more fair, accessible, and inclusive, and Afterpay has built a trusted brand aligned with those principles.”</p><p><blockquote>Square首席执行官杰克·多西(Jack Dorsey)表示：“Square和Afterpay有着共同的目标。”“我们建立业务是为了让金融体系更加公平、方便和包容，Afterpay已经建立了一个符合这些原则的值得信赖的品牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Afterpay, Australia’s largest tech company by market capitalization, said the deal implies a value of around 126.21 Australian dollars (about US$92.66) for each of its shares, representing a 31% premium to its closing price on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>澳大利亚市值最大的科技公司Afterpay表示，这笔交易意味着其每股价值约为126.21澳元（约合92.66美元），较上周五收盘价溢价31%。</blockquote></p><p> Afterpay said its shareholders will receive 0.375 share of Square Class A common stock for each Afterpay share that they own. It expects Afterpay shareholders will own around 18.5% of the combined company when the deal completes.</p><p><blockquote>Afterpay表示，其股东持有的每股Afterpay股票将获得0.375股Square A类普通股。预计交易完成后，Afterpay股东将拥有合并后公司约18.5%的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square Agrees to Acquire Afterpay for $29 Billion in All-Stock Deal<blockquote>Square同意以290亿美元的全股票交易收购Afterpay</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare Agrees to Acquire Afterpay for $29 Billion in All-Stock Deal<blockquote>Square同意以290亿美元的全股票交易收购Afterpay</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 07:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>(Updated on August 2, 2021 ET&nbsp;04:19 AM)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>（更新于美国东部时间2021年8月2日凌晨04:19）</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c9726bd034485ce2cd75b32ca6f291\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <b>Square fell over 5% in premarket trading.</b>  Australian installment-payment company positions its service as a cheaper, more responsible alternative to a credit card</p><p><blockquote><b>Square在盘前交易中下跌超过5%。</b>澳大利亚分期付款公司将其服务定位为更便宜、更负责任的信用卡替代品</blockquote></p><p> YDNEY—SquareInc.&nbsp;has agreed to an all-stock deal valued at around $29 billion to acquire Australia’s&nbsp;AfterpayLtd., an installment-payment company that positions its service as a cheaper and more responsible alternative to a credit card.</p><p><blockquote>Ydney-SquareInc.已同意一项价值约290亿美元的全股票交易，收购澳大利亚AfterpayLtd.，这是一家分期付款公司，将其服务定位为更便宜、更负责任的信用卡替代品。</blockquote></p><p> Square said it plans to integrate Afterpay into its Seller and Cash App business units, which would allow more retailers to offer so-called buy now, pay later services at checkout.</p><p><blockquote>Square表示，计划将Afterpay整合到其卖家和现金应用程序业务部门中，这将允许更多零售商在结账时提供所谓的“先买后付”服务。</blockquote></p><p> Afterpay’s technology allows users to&nbsp;pay for goods in four interest-free installments, while receiving the goods immediately. Customers pay a fee only if they miss an automated payment, a transgression that also locks their account until the balance is repaid. Afterpay says this limits bad debts, particularly in a downturn when job security is shaky and household finances are stretched.</p><p><blockquote>Afterpay的技术允许用户分四期免息分期付款购买商品，同时立即收到商品。客户只有在错过自动付款时才需要支付费用，这种违规行为也会锁定他们的账户，直到余额被偿还。Afterpay表示，这限制了坏账，特别是在经济低迷时期，工作保障不稳定，家庭财务捉襟见肘。</blockquote></p><p> Most of Afterpay’s revenue comes from retail merchants, which pay a percentage of the value of each order placed by customers, plus a fixed fee. The company is expanding across the U.S. through deals with retailers including Anthropologie and Free People.</p><p><blockquote>Afterpay的大部分收入来自零售商，零售商支付客户每笔订单价值的一定比例，外加固定费用。该公司正在通过与Anthropologie和Free People等零售商的交易在美国扩张。</blockquote></p><p> “Square and Afterpay have a shared purpose,” said Jack Dorsey, Square’s chief executive. “We built our business to make the financial system more fair, accessible, and inclusive, and Afterpay has built a trusted brand aligned with those principles.”</p><p><blockquote>Square首席执行官杰克·多西(Jack Dorsey)表示：“Square和Afterpay有着共同的目标。”“我们建立业务是为了让金融体系更加公平、方便和包容，Afterpay已经建立了一个符合这些原则的值得信赖的品牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Afterpay, Australia’s largest tech company by market capitalization, said the deal implies a value of around 126.21 Australian dollars (about US$92.66) for each of its shares, representing a 31% premium to its closing price on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>澳大利亚市值最大的科技公司Afterpay表示，这笔交易意味着其每股价值约为126.21澳元（约合92.66美元），较上周五收盘价溢价31%。</blockquote></p><p> Afterpay said its shareholders will receive 0.375 share of Square Class A common stock for each Afterpay share that they own. It expects Afterpay shareholders will own around 18.5% of the combined company when the deal completes.</p><p><blockquote>Afterpay表示，其股东持有的每股Afterpay股票将获得0.375股Square A类普通股。预计交易完成后，Afterpay股东将拥有合并后公司约18.5%的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/square-agrees-to-acquire-afterpay-for-29-billion-in-all-stock-deal-11627855390?mod=hp_lead_pos3\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/square-agrees-to-acquire-afterpay-for-29-billion-in-all-stock-deal-11627855390?mod=hp_lead_pos3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106026316","content_text":"(Updated on August 2, 2021 ET 04:19 AM)\n\n\nSquare fell over 5% in premarket trading.\n\nAustralian installment-payment company positions its service as a cheaper, more responsible alternative to a credit card\nYDNEY—SquareInc. has agreed to an all-stock deal valued at around $29 billion to acquire Australia’s AfterpayLtd., an installment-payment company that positions its service as a cheaper and more responsible alternative to a credit card.\nSquare said it plans to integrate Afterpay into its Seller and Cash App business units, which would allow more retailers to offer so-called buy now, pay later services at checkout.\nAfterpay’s technology allows users to pay for goods in four interest-free installments, while receiving the goods immediately. Customers pay a fee only if they miss an automated payment, a transgression that also locks their account until the balance is repaid. Afterpay says this limits bad debts, particularly in a downturn when job security is shaky and household finances are stretched.\nMost of Afterpay’s revenue comes from retail merchants, which pay a percentage of the value of each order placed by customers, plus a fixed fee. The company is expanding across the U.S. through deals with retailers including Anthropologie and Free People.\n“Square and Afterpay have a shared purpose,” said Jack Dorsey, Square’s chief executive. “We built our business to make the financial system more fair, accessible, and inclusive, and Afterpay has built a trusted brand aligned with those principles.”\nAfterpay, Australia’s largest tech company by market capitalization, said the deal implies a value of around 126.21 Australian dollars (about US$92.66) for each of its shares, representing a 31% premium to its closing price on Friday.\nAfterpay said its shareholders will receive 0.375 share of Square Class A common stock for each Afterpay share that they own. It expects Afterpay shareholders will own around 18.5% of the combined company when the deal completes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802595465,"gmtCreate":1627786462257,"gmtModify":1633756400155,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read!","listText":"Read!","text":"Read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802595465","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802924435,"gmtCreate":1627709310527,"gmtModify":1633756886646,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802924435","repostId":"2155015426","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175179474,"gmtCreate":1627017164398,"gmtModify":1633768727945,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell","listText":"Sell","text":"Sell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175179474","repostId":"1134708261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171263217,"gmtCreate":1626746576239,"gmtModify":1633771446942,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171263217","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171269113,"gmtCreate":1626746534732,"gmtModify":1633771448150,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583978426873835","idStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read!","listText":"Read!","text":"Read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171269113","repostId":"2152652796","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":149310815,"gmtCreate":1625704603638,"gmtModify":1633938223952,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583978426873835","authorIdStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Watch it!","listText":"Watch it!","text":"Watch it!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149310815","repostId":"1133690658","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133690658","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625704206,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133690658?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 08:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dozens of U.S. states sue Google over Play Store's 'extravagant commission'<blockquote>美国数十个州就Play Store的“奢侈佣金”起诉谷歌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133690658","media":"Reuters","summary":"WASHINGTON/OAKLAND, Calif., July 7 (Reuters) - Thirty-seven U.S. state and district attorneys genera","content":"<p>WASHINGTON/OAKLAND, Calif., July 7 (Reuters) - Thirty-seven U.S. state and district attorneys general sued <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc's(GOOGL.O)Google on Wednesday, alleging that the search and advertising giant violates antitrust law in running its app store for Android phones.</p><p><blockquote>路透华盛顿/加州奥克兰7月7日电——美国37名州和地区总检察长提起诉讼<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司（GOOGL.O）周三指控这家搜索和广告巨头在运营其Android手机应用商店时违反了反垄断法。</blockquote></p><p> The lawsuit, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of a series that has been filed against Google in the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> States, follows complaints from app developers about the management of its Play Store.</p><p><blockquote>这起诉讼，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>针对谷歌提起的一系列诉讼<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">团结的</a>在应用程序开发者抱怨其Play Store的管理之后。</blockquote></p><p> Google did not have immediate comment on the new litigation.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌没有立即对新诉讼发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> Google requires that some apps use the company's payment tools and give Google as much as 30% of digital goods sales.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌要求一些应用使用该公司的支付工具，并给谷歌高达30%的数字商品销售额。</blockquote></p><p> \"To collect and maintain this extravagant commission, Google has employed anticompetitive tactics to diminish and disincentivize competition in Android app distribution,\" the lawsuit stated.</p><p><blockquote>诉讼称：“为了收取和维持这笔奢侈的佣金，谷歌采用了反竞争策略来减少和抑制Android应用程序分发领域的竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Google has not only targeted potentially competing app stores, but also has ensured that app developers themselves have no reasonable choice but to distribute their apps through the Google Play Store,\" it added.</p><p><blockquote>它补充说：“谷歌不仅瞄准了潜在的竞争应用商店，还确保应用开发者自己没有合理的选择，只能通过谷歌Play商店分发他们的应用。”</blockquote></p><p> Google said last September it would ramp up enforcement of its policies, drawing criticism from app makers. Google's Play Store is far more widely used than similar products from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a> Inc(AMZN.O), Samsung Electronics Co Ltd(005930.KS), Huawei Technologies Co Ltd [RIC:RIC:HWT.UL] and others.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌去年9月表示，将加大政策执行力度，招致应用程序制造商的批评。谷歌的Play商店的使用范围远比来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>Inc(AMZN.O)、三星电子有限公司(005930.KS)、华为技术有限公司[RIC：RIC：HWT.UL]等。</blockquote></p><p> The new lawsuit drew praise from Meghan DiMuzio, executive director for the Coalition for App Fairness, which represents companies including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTCH\">Match</a> Group Inc(MTCH.O)and Spotify Technology SA(SPOT.N)that oppose some of the Play Store rules.</p><p><blockquote>新诉讼得到了应用公平联盟执行董事梅根·迪穆齐奥(Meghan DiMuzio)的赞扬，该联盟代表的公司包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTCH\">比赛</a>集团公司（MTCH.O）和Spotify Technology SA（SPOT.N）反对Play Store的一些规则。</blockquote></p><p> \"Anti-competitive policies stifle innovation, inhibit consumer freedom, inflate costs, and limit transparent communication between developers and their customers,\" DiMuzio said.</p><p><blockquote>迪穆齐奥说：“反竞争政策扼杀创新，抑制消费者自由，抬高成本，并限制开发商与其客户之间的透明沟通。”</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc's(AAPL.O)App Store for iPhones and iPads imposes similar restrictions to Play Store. Google does enable consumers to avoid the Play Store, but critics say it is not practical to do so.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc.（AAPL.O）的iPhone和iPad应用商店对Play Store施加了类似的限制。谷歌确实使消费者能够避开Play Store，但批评人士表示，这样做不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies have drawn legal scrutiny.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都受到了法律审查。</blockquote></p><p> Video game maker Epic Games Inc sued Google and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> separately in federal court in California last year over app store policies. Proposed classes of developers and consumers have joined the cases. A judge's decision in the Apple fight is expected in the coming weeks, and a hearing on Google's effort to dismiss the case against it is scheduled for July 22.</p><p><blockquote>视频游戏制造商Epic Games Inc起诉谷歌和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>去年在加州联邦法院就app store政策单独提起诉讼。提议的开发者和消费者类别已经加入了这些案例。预计法官将在未来几周内对苹果之争做出裁决，并定于7月22日就谷歌驳回针对其的案件举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p> The states' lawsuit is headed by a group including attorneys general of Utah, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>, North <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CARO\">Carolina</a> and Tennessee, and joined by others including California and the District of Columbia.</p><p><blockquote>各州的诉讼由犹他州总检察长领导，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>,北<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CARO\">卡罗莱纳州</a>和田纳西州，以及包括加利福尼亚州和哥伦比亚特区在内的其他州。</blockquote></p><p> Google already faces a federal antitrust lawsuit brought by the Justice Department last year and related lawsuits from two separate groups of attorneys general. One is led by Texas and focused on advertising while the other targets Google's alleged efforts to extend its dominance in search to newer markets, like voice assistants.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌已经面临司法部去年提起的联邦反垄断诉讼，以及两个独立的总检察长团体的相关诉讼。一个由德克萨斯州领导，专注于广告，而另一个则针对谷歌所谓的将其在搜索领域的主导地位扩展到语音助手等新市场的努力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dozens of U.S. states sue Google over Play Store's 'extravagant commission'<blockquote>美国数十个州就Play Store的“奢侈佣金”起诉谷歌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDozens of U.S. states sue Google over Play Store's 'extravagant commission'<blockquote>美国数十个州就Play Store的“奢侈佣金”起诉谷歌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 08:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON/OAKLAND, Calif., July 7 (Reuters) - Thirty-seven U.S. state and district attorneys general sued <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc's(GOOGL.O)Google on Wednesday, alleging that the search and advertising giant violates antitrust law in running its app store for Android phones.</p><p><blockquote>路透华盛顿/加州奥克兰7月7日电——美国37名州和地区总检察长提起诉讼<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司（GOOGL.O）周三指控这家搜索和广告巨头在运营其Android手机应用商店时违反了反垄断法。</blockquote></p><p> The lawsuit, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of a series that has been filed against Google in the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> States, follows complaints from app developers about the management of its Play Store.</p><p><blockquote>这起诉讼，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>针对谷歌提起的一系列诉讼<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">团结的</a>在应用程序开发者抱怨其Play Store的管理之后。</blockquote></p><p> Google did not have immediate comment on the new litigation.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌没有立即对新诉讼发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> Google requires that some apps use the company's payment tools and give Google as much as 30% of digital goods sales.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌要求一些应用使用该公司的支付工具，并给谷歌高达30%的数字商品销售额。</blockquote></p><p> \"To collect and maintain this extravagant commission, Google has employed anticompetitive tactics to diminish and disincentivize competition in Android app distribution,\" the lawsuit stated.</p><p><blockquote>诉讼称：“为了收取和维持这笔奢侈的佣金，谷歌采用了反竞争策略来减少和抑制Android应用程序分发领域的竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Google has not only targeted potentially competing app stores, but also has ensured that app developers themselves have no reasonable choice but to distribute their apps through the Google Play Store,\" it added.</p><p><blockquote>它补充说：“谷歌不仅瞄准了潜在的竞争应用商店，还确保应用开发者自己没有合理的选择，只能通过谷歌Play商店分发他们的应用。”</blockquote></p><p> Google said last September it would ramp up enforcement of its policies, drawing criticism from app makers. Google's Play Store is far more widely used than similar products from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a> Inc(AMZN.O), Samsung Electronics Co Ltd(005930.KS), Huawei Technologies Co Ltd [RIC:RIC:HWT.UL] and others.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌去年9月表示，将加大政策执行力度，招致应用程序制造商的批评。谷歌的Play商店的使用范围远比来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>Inc(AMZN.O)、三星电子有限公司(005930.KS)、华为技术有限公司[RIC：RIC：HWT.UL]等。</blockquote></p><p> The new lawsuit drew praise from Meghan DiMuzio, executive director for the Coalition for App Fairness, which represents companies including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTCH\">Match</a> Group Inc(MTCH.O)and Spotify Technology SA(SPOT.N)that oppose some of the Play Store rules.</p><p><blockquote>新诉讼得到了应用公平联盟执行董事梅根·迪穆齐奥(Meghan DiMuzio)的赞扬，该联盟代表的公司包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTCH\">比赛</a>集团公司（MTCH.O）和Spotify Technology SA（SPOT.N）反对Play Store的一些规则。</blockquote></p><p> \"Anti-competitive policies stifle innovation, inhibit consumer freedom, inflate costs, and limit transparent communication between developers and their customers,\" DiMuzio said.</p><p><blockquote>迪穆齐奥说：“反竞争政策扼杀创新，抑制消费者自由，抬高成本，并限制开发商与其客户之间的透明沟通。”</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc's(AAPL.O)App Store for iPhones and iPads imposes similar restrictions to Play Store. Google does enable consumers to avoid the Play Store, but critics say it is not practical to do so.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc.（AAPL.O）的iPhone和iPad应用商店对Play Store施加了类似的限制。谷歌确实使消费者能够避开Play Store，但批评人士表示，这样做不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies have drawn legal scrutiny.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都受到了法律审查。</blockquote></p><p> Video game maker Epic Games Inc sued Google and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> separately in federal court in California last year over app store policies. Proposed classes of developers and consumers have joined the cases. A judge's decision in the Apple fight is expected in the coming weeks, and a hearing on Google's effort to dismiss the case against it is scheduled for July 22.</p><p><blockquote>视频游戏制造商Epic Games Inc起诉谷歌和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>去年在加州联邦法院就app store政策单独提起诉讼。提议的开发者和消费者类别已经加入了这些案例。预计法官将在未来几周内对苹果之争做出裁决，并定于7月22日就谷歌驳回针对其的案件举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p> The states' lawsuit is headed by a group including attorneys general of Utah, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a>, North <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CARO\">Carolina</a> and Tennessee, and joined by others including California and the District of Columbia.</p><p><blockquote>各州的诉讼由犹他州总检察长领导，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>,北<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CARO\">卡罗莱纳州</a>和田纳西州，以及包括加利福尼亚州和哥伦比亚特区在内的其他州。</blockquote></p><p> Google already faces a federal antitrust lawsuit brought by the Justice Department last year and related lawsuits from two separate groups of attorneys general. One is led by Texas and focused on advertising while the other targets Google's alleged efforts to extend its dominance in search to newer markets, like voice assistants.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌已经面临司法部去年提起的联邦反垄断诉讼，以及两个独立的总检察长团体的相关诉讼。一个由德克萨斯州领导，专注于广告，而另一个则针对谷歌所谓的将其在搜索领域的主导地位扩展到语音助手等新市场的努力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/technology/dozens-us-states-sue-google-alleging-antitrust-violations-2021-07-07/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指","GOOGL":"谷歌A","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/technology/dozens-us-states-sue-google-alleging-antitrust-violations-2021-07-07/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133690658","content_text":"WASHINGTON/OAKLAND, Calif., July 7 (Reuters) - Thirty-seven U.S. state and district attorneys general sued Alphabet Inc's(GOOGL.O)Google on Wednesday, alleging that the search and advertising giant violates antitrust law in running its app store for Android phones.\nThe lawsuit, one of a series that has been filed against Google in the United States, follows complaints from app developers about the management of its Play Store.\nGoogle did not have immediate comment on the new litigation.\nGoogle requires that some apps use the company's payment tools and give Google as much as 30% of digital goods sales.\n\"To collect and maintain this extravagant commission, Google has employed anticompetitive tactics to diminish and disincentivize competition in Android app distribution,\" the lawsuit stated.\n\"Google has not only targeted potentially competing app stores, but also has ensured that app developers themselves have no reasonable choice but to distribute their apps through the Google Play Store,\" it added.\nGoogle said last September it would ramp up enforcement of its policies, drawing criticism from app makers. Google's Play Store is far more widely used than similar products from Amazon.com Inc(AMZN.O), Samsung Electronics Co Ltd(005930.KS), Huawei Technologies Co Ltd [RIC:RIC:HWT.UL] and others.\nThe new lawsuit drew praise from Meghan DiMuzio, executive director for the Coalition for App Fairness, which represents companies including Match Group Inc(MTCH.O)and Spotify Technology SA(SPOT.N)that oppose some of the Play Store rules.\n\"Anti-competitive policies stifle innovation, inhibit consumer freedom, inflate costs, and limit transparent communication between developers and their customers,\" DiMuzio said.\nApple Inc's(AAPL.O)App Store for iPhones and iPads imposes similar restrictions to Play Store. Google does enable consumers to avoid the Play Store, but critics say it is not practical to do so.\nBoth companies have drawn legal scrutiny.\nVideo game maker Epic Games Inc sued Google and Apple separately in federal court in California last year over app store policies. Proposed classes of developers and consumers have joined the cases. A judge's decision in the Apple fight is expected in the coming weeks, and a hearing on Google's effort to dismiss the case against it is scheduled for July 22.\nThe states' lawsuit is headed by a group including attorneys general of Utah, New York, North Carolina and Tennessee, and joined by others including California and the District of Columbia.\nGoogle already faces a federal antitrust lawsuit brought by the Justice Department last year and related lawsuits from two separate groups of attorneys general. One is led by Texas and focused on advertising while the other targets Google's alleged efforts to extend its dominance in search to newer markets, like voice assistants.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09086":0.9,"03086":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124369360,"gmtCreate":1624744341650,"gmtModify":1633949221885,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583978426873835","authorIdStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124369360","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179966949,"gmtCreate":1626482263881,"gmtModify":1633926421967,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583978426873835","authorIdStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy!","listText":"Buy!","text":"Buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179966949","repostId":"1198202103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814156184,"gmtCreate":1630800144048,"gmtModify":1632905892065,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583978426873835","authorIdStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read","listText":"Read","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814156184","repostId":"1169514310","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169514310","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630656896,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169514310?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 16:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Good Reasons the Stock Market Isn’t Ready to Blow Up Yet<blockquote>股市尚未准备好爆炸的2个充分理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169514310","media":"Barron's","summary":"tocks have had an impressive year so far, but there are still four months before 2021 wraps up. So w","content":"<p>tocks have had an impressive year so far, but there are still four months before 2021 wraps up. So what’s ahead? A correction? More gains? Right now, it’s easier to make the case for the rally to just keep on going.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，股票经历了令人印象深刻的一年，但距离2021年结束还有四个月的时间。那么接下来会发生什么？更正？更多收获？现在，更容易证明涨势继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> First, though, it’s understandable why investors might be nervous.</p><p><blockquote>不过，首先，投资者感到紧张是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p> TheS&amp;P 500has gained about 21% year to date, far above the historical average annual return of about 10%. And in the first eight months, the index hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5%— a correction is defined as a 10% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数今年迄今已上涨约21%，远高于约10%的历史平均年回报率。在前八个月，该指数的回调幅度没有超过5%——回调被定义为下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p> Still, a good run needs something to stop it—likehigher corporate taxes,which the Biden administration supports. They could shave 5% or more off projected earnings estimates for S&amp;P 500 companies. Or persistent inflation, which could cause the Federal Reserve to rapidly reduce economic support. And there are a host of other catalysts, enough to push some analyststo forecast a retreat.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，良好的运行需要一些东西来阻止它——比如拜登政府支持的更高的公司税。他们可能会将标普500公司的盈利预期下调5%或更多。或者持续的通胀，这可能导致美联储迅速减少经济支持。还有许多其他催化剂，足以促使一些分析师预测经济会出现回落。</blockquote></p><p> But who knows how long Washington might take to put a new tax structure in place, or if lawmakers even will. Or what the deal is with inflation. There has been tapering talk for a few months now, and the Fed holds firm to its wait-and-see approach.</p><p><blockquote>但谁知道华盛顿可能需要多长时间才能建立新的税收结构，或者立法者是否会这样做。或者通货膨胀是怎么回事。缩减购债规模的讨论已经持续了几个月，美联储仍坚持观望态度。</blockquote></p><p> So the nature of the market’s climb in the past couple of weeks seems to be the surest, strongest sign of what’s ahead. The S&amp;P 500 is up 3% since Aug. 18, the bottom of a brief and shallow drop.</p><p><blockquote>因此，过去几周市场上涨的性质似乎是未来最确定、最强烈的迹象。自8月18日以来，标普500已上涨3%，这是短暂而浅跌的底部。</blockquote></p><p> “[Market] internals improved last week,” writes&nbsp;Michael Gibbs, director of equity portfolio and technical strategy at Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)股票投资组合和技术策略总监迈克尔·吉布斯(Michael Gibbs)写道：“上周[市场]内部结构有所改善。”</blockquote></p><p> First off, transaction volumes are improving.</p><p><blockquote>首先，交易量正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> In late August, the daily number of shares traded on the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 Exchange-Traded Fund Trust(SPY) has been about 54 million, according to FactSet. That’s above just under 50 million seen in the middle of the month.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，8月底，SPDR标普500交易所交易基金信托（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的每日交易股票数量约为5400万股。这高于本月中旬的略低于5000万。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot: When more market participants are transacting and they are bidding prices higher, it’s a vote of confidence in the market.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：当更多的市场参与者进行交易并且他们出价更高时，这是对市场的信任票。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, the rally has been broad-based—many stocks have participated. For example, almost 80% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange have been gaining, according to Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>其次，涨势基础广泛——许多股票都参与其中。例如，雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)表示，纽约证券交易所上市的近80%的股票都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The last time that metric hit such a high was November 2020. More stocks participating in the rally means the major indexes are less dependent on one group of stocks to move higher. Plus, witheconomically sensitive stocks on a run as well,it means investors are confident in sustained economic growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>该指标上一次达到如此高的水平是在2020年11月。更多股票参与涨势意味着主要股指较少依赖一组股票走高。此外，经济敏感型股票也在上涨，这意味着投资者对未来经济持续增长充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> So more gains or a correction? We’ve made our case, but time will tell.</p><p><blockquote>那么更多的收益还是修正？我们已经证明了我们的观点，但时间会证明一切。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Good Reasons the Stock Market Isn’t Ready to Blow Up Yet<blockquote>股市尚未准备好爆炸的2个充分理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Good Reasons the Stock Market Isn’t Ready to Blow Up Yet<blockquote>股市尚未准备好爆炸的2个充分理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 16:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>tocks have had an impressive year so far, but there are still four months before 2021 wraps up. So what’s ahead? A correction? More gains? Right now, it’s easier to make the case for the rally to just keep on going.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，股票经历了令人印象深刻的一年，但距离2021年结束还有四个月的时间。那么接下来会发生什么？更正？更多收获？现在，更容易证明涨势继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> First, though, it’s understandable why investors might be nervous.</p><p><blockquote>不过，首先，投资者感到紧张是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p> TheS&amp;P 500has gained about 21% year to date, far above the historical average annual return of about 10%. And in the first eight months, the index hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5%— a correction is defined as a 10% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数今年迄今已上涨约21%，远高于约10%的历史平均年回报率。在前八个月，该指数的回调幅度没有超过5%——回调被定义为下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p> Still, a good run needs something to stop it—likehigher corporate taxes,which the Biden administration supports. They could shave 5% or more off projected earnings estimates for S&amp;P 500 companies. Or persistent inflation, which could cause the Federal Reserve to rapidly reduce economic support. And there are a host of other catalysts, enough to push some analyststo forecast a retreat.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，良好的运行需要一些东西来阻止它——比如拜登政府支持的更高的公司税。他们可能会将标普500公司的盈利预期下调5%或更多。或者持续的通胀，这可能导致美联储迅速减少经济支持。还有许多其他催化剂，足以促使一些分析师预测经济会出现回落。</blockquote></p><p> But who knows how long Washington might take to put a new tax structure in place, or if lawmakers even will. Or what the deal is with inflation. There has been tapering talk for a few months now, and the Fed holds firm to its wait-and-see approach.</p><p><blockquote>但谁知道华盛顿可能需要多长时间才能建立新的税收结构，或者立法者是否会这样做。或者通货膨胀是怎么回事。缩减购债规模的讨论已经持续了几个月，美联储仍坚持观望态度。</blockquote></p><p> So the nature of the market’s climb in the past couple of weeks seems to be the surest, strongest sign of what’s ahead. The S&amp;P 500 is up 3% since Aug. 18, the bottom of a brief and shallow drop.</p><p><blockquote>因此，过去几周市场上涨的性质似乎是未来最确定、最强烈的迹象。自8月18日以来，标普500已上涨3%，这是短暂而浅跌的底部。</blockquote></p><p> “[Market] internals improved last week,” writes&nbsp;Michael Gibbs, director of equity portfolio and technical strategy at Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)股票投资组合和技术策略总监迈克尔·吉布斯(Michael Gibbs)写道：“上周[市场]内部结构有所改善。”</blockquote></p><p> First off, transaction volumes are improving.</p><p><blockquote>首先，交易量正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> In late August, the daily number of shares traded on the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 Exchange-Traded Fund Trust(SPY) has been about 54 million, according to FactSet. That’s above just under 50 million seen in the middle of the month.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，8月底，SPDR标普500交易所交易基金信托（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的每日交易股票数量约为5400万股。这高于本月中旬的略低于5000万。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot: When more market participants are transacting and they are bidding prices higher, it’s a vote of confidence in the market.</p><p><blockquote>结果是：当更多的市场参与者进行交易并且他们出价更高时，这是对市场的信任票。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, the rally has been broad-based—many stocks have participated. For example, almost 80% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange have been gaining, according to Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>其次，涨势基础广泛——许多股票都参与其中。例如，雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)表示，纽约证券交易所上市的近80%的股票都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The last time that metric hit such a high was November 2020. More stocks participating in the rally means the major indexes are less dependent on one group of stocks to move higher. Plus, witheconomically sensitive stocks on a run as well,it means investors are confident in sustained economic growth ahead.</p><p><blockquote>该指标上一次达到如此高的水平是在2020年11月。更多股票参与涨势意味着主要股指较少依赖一组股票走高。此外，经济敏感型股票也在上涨，这意味着投资者对未来经济持续增长充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> So more gains or a correction? We’ve made our case, but time will tell.</p><p><blockquote>那么更多的收益还是修正？我们已经证明了我们的观点，但时间会证明一切。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-crash-or-rally-51630526109?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-outlook-crash-or-rally-51630526109?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169514310","content_text":"tocks have had an impressive year so far, but there are still four months before 2021 wraps up. So what’s ahead? A correction? More gains? Right now, it’s easier to make the case for the rally to just keep on going.\nFirst, though, it’s understandable why investors might be nervous.\nTheS&P 500has gained about 21% year to date, far above the historical average annual return of about 10%. And in the first eight months, the index hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5%— a correction is defined as a 10% drawdown.\nStill, a good run needs something to stop it—likehigher corporate taxes,which the Biden administration supports. They could shave 5% or more off projected earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. Or persistent inflation, which could cause the Federal Reserve to rapidly reduce economic support. And there are a host of other catalysts, enough to push some analyststo forecast a retreat.\nBut who knows how long Washington might take to put a new tax structure in place, or if lawmakers even will. Or what the deal is with inflation. There has been tapering talk for a few months now, and the Fed holds firm to its wait-and-see approach.\nSo the nature of the market’s climb in the past couple of weeks seems to be the surest, strongest sign of what’s ahead. The S&P 500 is up 3% since Aug. 18, the bottom of a brief and shallow drop.\n“[Market] internals improved last week,” writes Michael Gibbs, director of equity portfolio and technical strategy at Raymond James.\nFirst off, transaction volumes are improving.\nIn late August, the daily number of shares traded on the SPDR S&P 500 Exchange-Traded Fund Trust(SPY) has been about 54 million, according to FactSet. That’s above just under 50 million seen in the middle of the month.\nThe upshot: When more market participants are transacting and they are bidding prices higher, it’s a vote of confidence in the market.\nSecondly, the rally has been broad-based—many stocks have participated. For example, almost 80% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange have been gaining, according to Raymond James.\nThe last time that metric hit such a high was November 2020. More stocks participating in the rally means the major indexes are less dependent on one group of stocks to move higher. Plus, witheconomically sensitive stocks on a run as well,it means investors are confident in sustained economic growth ahead.\nSo more gains or a correction? 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11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3585043179154199","authorId":"3585043179154199","name":"jacksoncheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15cea2a12fcc802fa3161c7165a892de","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585043179154199","authorIdStr":"3585043179154199"},"content":"comments tks","text":"comments tks","html":"comments tks"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125483196,"gmtCreate":1624685980416,"gmtModify":1633949568706,"author":{"id":"3583978426873835","authorId":"3583978426873835","name":"leekanghao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c1122e49e06c919b85c00976e928d03","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583978426873835","authorIdStr":"3583978426873835"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125483196","repostId":"1175794606","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}