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2021-06-13

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2021-06-13

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Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.

2021-06-13

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2021-06-13

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2021-06-12

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2021-06-12

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Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?

2021-06-12

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Inflation is undergoing a ‘structural shift’ and these markets will benefit, strategist says

2021-06-12

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2021-06-12

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2021-06-12

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Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited

2021-06-12

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2021-06-12

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The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans

2021-06-12

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Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189143522","media":"Barron's","summary":"Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that h","content":"<p>Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.</p>\n<p>In meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.</p>\n<p>Snowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.</p>\n<p>The long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.</p>\n<p>Canaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.</p>\n<p>But Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”</p>\n<p>Likewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. 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Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-13 00:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.\nIn meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189143522","content_text":"Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.\nIn meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.\nSnowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.\nThe long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.\nCanaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.\nBut Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”\nLikewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186468649,"gmtCreate":1623529058481,"gmtModify":1634032149572,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment !!","listText":"comment !!","text":"comment !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186468649","repostId":"1148565686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186468099,"gmtCreate":1623528883011,"gmtModify":1634032150040,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment&nbsp;!!","listText":"like and comment&nbsp;!!","text":"like and comment !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186468099","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186124742,"gmtCreate":1623479754486,"gmtModify":1634032541674,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment !!","listText":"comment !!","text":"comment !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186124742","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186125562,"gmtCreate":1623479675056,"gmtModify":1634032542858,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"trader. !","listText":"trader. !","text":"trader. !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186125562","repostId":"1147474880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147474880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470168,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147474880?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147474880","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless ris","content":"<blockquote>\n Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n</blockquote>\n<p>I’ve had it.</p>\n<p>The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p>\n<p>If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p>\n<p>Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p>\n<p>You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p>\n<p>Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p>\n<p>An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p>\n<p>The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p>\n<p>He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p>\n<p>“If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p>\n<p>Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p>\n<p>In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p>\n<p>However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p>\n<p>Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p>\n<p>If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p>\n<p>Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p>\n<p>I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p>\n<p>“ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p>\n<p>I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p>\n<p>Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p>\n<p>Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p>\n<p>In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p>\n<p>The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p>\n<p>PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p>\n<p>Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p>\n<p>In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 11:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n\nI’ve had it.\nThe Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147474880","content_text":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n\nI’ve had it.\nThe Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.\nIf you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.\nWhenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.\nYou’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.\nOf course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%areinvestors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.\nAn investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.\nThe word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.\nNevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”\nHe wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)\n“If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”\nGraham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.\nIn that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”\nHowever, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”\nMost investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.\nIf you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.\nTake speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.\nI think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.\n“ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”\nI hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.\nCalling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.\nIna recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”\nIn her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.\nThe currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)\nPAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.\nMs. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”\nIn Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188292580,"gmtCreate":1623442700040,"gmtModify":1634033166592,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment !!","listText":"comment !!","text":"comment !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188292580","repostId":"1196090491","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196090491","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623418568,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196090491?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 21:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation is undergoing a ‘structural shift’ and these markets will benefit, strategist says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196090491","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May ","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation is undergoing a ‘structural shift’ and these markets will benefit, strategist says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation is undergoing a ‘structural shift’ and these markets will benefit, strategist says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 21:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1196090491","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages are not rising as much as would normally be expected alongside GDP growth rates upward of 6%. Real average hourly earnings, which account for inflation, were down 2.8% in May from the previous year.\n\nEuropean stocks are set to outperform the U.S. as inflation sticks around and commodities begin a new “supercycle,” according to Livermore Partners Chief Investment Officer David Neuhauser.\nTheU.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflationin May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also notched a 28-year high of 3.8%.\nWhilemarkets have broadly dismissedthe current red-hot inflation figures as transitory and fueled by short-term anomalous factors, Neuhauser argued that a more fundamental \"structural shift\" was taking place.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages are not rising as much as would normally be expected alongside GDP growth rates upward of 6%. Real average hourly earnings in the U.S., which account for inflation, were down 2.8% in May from the previous year, according to theBureau of Labor Statistics.\n\"As you are seeing prices for automobiles, as prices for houses, as prices for food and energy go up, even though it looks like the economies are starting to boom, the real issue is you're not seeing wages grow as fast,\" Neuhauser told CNBC's \"Squawk Box Europe\" Friday.\n\"Thus ultimately that is going to start to pinch the consumer and as you know, the consumer is 70%-plus of the economy.\"\nIf inflation is indeed here to stay, as Livermore Partners anticipates, Neuhauser suggested this will cause troubles down the line and will cause the Federal Reserve to apply the brakes to its accommodative monetary policy.\nWage growth sluggish\nNeuhauser pointed to McDonald's and Chipotle as examples of companies that have begun to incur substantial and rising input costs while struggling to attract workers in the wake of the pandemic, leading them to offer bonuses and focus on wage growth.\n\"That is ultimately going to increase the price of their goods and services which will of course increase the prices to consumers,\" he added.\nThis could cause problems if these trends combine with the potential tapering of the Fed's unprecedented bond-buying program, Neuhauser suggested.\n“That is going to have the potential at least to start to rerate markets, which look extremely frothy. Ultimately, that is what you have to focus on as an investor,” he said.\n“You have to look at the numbers and you can push them off to the side, but you can’t do that if you start to see more consistent hotter numbers running forward.”\nCommodities ‘supercycle’\nNeuhauser’s fund is now largely focused on commodities, banks and industrials, as he believes commodities are in the start of a new “supercycle” — a decades-long period in which commodity prices remain above long-term trends.\n“We have seen (fewer) mines being built, we have seen oil and gas see capex (capital expenditure) being pulled away as banks aren’t lending anymore, you are seeing ESG initiatives make front and center stage when it comes to board meetings,” he said.\n“I think there has been this structural shift where you have not seen capital, capital has been starved to the complex and ultimately you have a dollar that is looking to potentially fall apart.”\nThis shift means commodities are the place to be for investors over the next three to five years, he argued.\n“We are playing that in terms of some of the smaller cap free cash flow or cash flow businesses out there,” he said.\n“A lot of it is in Europe and a lot of it is international, so I think Europe is going to outperform the U.S. as we go forward and that is where most of our capital is actually at Livermore, in a lot of these European stocks tied to mining.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188296399,"gmtCreate":1623442320611,"gmtModify":1634033167282,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"roar !!","listText":"roar !!","text":"roar !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188296399","repostId":"1135185071","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188298293,"gmtCreate":1623442239412,"gmtModify":1634033167649,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"roar !!","listText":"roar !!","text":"roar !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188298293","repostId":"2142572209","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188298643,"gmtCreate":1623442224282,"gmtModify":1634033167770,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"roarrr","listText":"roarrr","text":"roarrr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188298643","repostId":"2142572209","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188298109,"gmtCreate":1623442155001,"gmtModify":1634033167892,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188298109","repostId":"1198311684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198311684","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623415805,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198311684?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198311684","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavir","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.</p>\n<p>Central banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.</p>\n<p>Will it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Currently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.</p>\n<p>Investors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.</p>\n<p>Or investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.</p>\n<p>Third, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.</p>\n<p>An alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.</p>\n<p>Fourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) &nbsp;TIP,+0.52%&nbsp;or commodities.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Fifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.</p>\n<p>The ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.</p>\n<p>Investors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Policymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Perhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198311684","content_text":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.\nCentral banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.\nWill it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates. \nCurrently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.\nInvestors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.\nOr investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.\nThird, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.\nAn alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.\nFourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)  TIP,+0.52% or commodities. \nFifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.\nThe ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.\nInvestors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising. \nPolicymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns. \nPerhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188610885,"gmtCreate":1623431590447,"gmtModify":1634033222944,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nicee","listText":"nicee","text":"nicee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188610885","repostId":"2142208493","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188692139,"gmtCreate":1623430887121,"gmtModify":1634033232534,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"baba","listText":"baba","text":"baba","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188692139","repostId":"1195128984","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188696738,"gmtCreate":1623430861624,"gmtModify":1634033232898,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188696738","repostId":"1146386859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188696952,"gmtCreate":1623430841976,"gmtModify":1634033233586,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188696952","repostId":"1114257617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114257617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623425495,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114257617?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114257617","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on","content":"<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming that<i>the Fed is wrong</i>, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn<i>\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"</i></p>\n<p>But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.</p>\n<p><b>Presenting Exhibit A</b>: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and homes...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when we just got<b>Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.</b></p>\n<p>While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.</p>\n<p>And as Curtin adds, \"<b>these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.</b>These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"</p>\n<p>This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This, for better or worse,<b>screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,</b>as Curting elaborates:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.</i> \n <i><b>The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.</p>\n<p>What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.</p>\n<p>One thing is certain:<b>six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114257617","content_text":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get  (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming thatthe Fed is wrong, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"\nBut none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.\nPresenting Exhibit A: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.\n\nThe drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...\n\n... and homes...\n\nThis confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.\n\nFast forward to today when we just gotExhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.\nWhile there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...\n\n... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.\nAnd as Curtin adds, \"these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"\nThis can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.\n\nThis, for better or worse,screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,as Curting elaborates:\n\n... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.\nThe acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.\n\nThe problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.\n\nWhile expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.\n\nOh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.\nWhat does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.\nOne thing is certain:six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188698703,"gmtCreate":1623430824402,"gmtModify":1634033233708,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188698703","repostId":"1114257617","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188698973,"gmtCreate":1623430799092,"gmtModify":1634033234299,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188698973","repostId":"1135185071","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188691910,"gmtCreate":1623430756430,"gmtModify":1634033234971,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188691910","repostId":"1135185071","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188602633,"gmtCreate":1623430477722,"gmtModify":1634033239508,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment !!","listText":"comment !!","text":"comment !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188602633","repostId":"2142572209","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":186468514,"gmtCreate":1623529128438,"gmtModify":1634032149450,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment !!","listText":"comment !!","text":"comment !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186468514","repostId":"1189143522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189143522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623513679,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189143522?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 00:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189143522","media":"Barron's","summary":"Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that h","content":"<p>Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.</p>\n<p>In meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.</p>\n<p>Snowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.</p>\n<p>The long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.</p>\n<p>Canaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.</p>\n<p>But Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”</p>\n<p>Likewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnowflake Is a Growth Juggernaut. Wall Street Is Thinking About Stock Value.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-13 00:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.\nIn meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/snowflake-is-a-growth-juggernaut-wall-street-is-thinking-about-stock-value-51623432689?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189143522","content_text":"Snowflake remains one of the best growth stories in the history of the software business, and that has Wall Street talking about the stock’s valuation.\nIn meeting with analysts on Thursday,the cloud-data software company provided an ambitious goalof reaching $10 billion in product revenue in the January 2029 fiscal year. That compares to $554 million forthe January 2021 fiscal year.\nSnowflake (ticker: SNOW) should still be growing 30% at the top-line at that point, according to chief financial officer Mike Scarpelli, while generating 10% operating margins and free cash flow margins of 15% or better. He also said the company now sees a total addressable market of $90 billion, an expansion of more than 10% from the $81 billion estimated market size cited during its IPO roadshow in 2020.\nThe long-term growth goals help frame the huge opportunity that Snowflake has ahead, but did nothing to change the fundamental debate about the stock: Does the impressive growth rate—120% in product revenue in the latest year— justify the massive valuation? In afternoon trading Friday, shares were off 4.4%, to $237.84.\nCanaccord Genuity analyst David Hynes notes that if Snowflake hits its $10 billion target, it would be the fastest that a software company has reached that size. Hynes adds that the history of the management team, led by CEO Frank Slootman, suggests Snowflake could reach its target early.\nBut Hynes nonetheless is sticking with his Hold rating and $240 target price. “There’s no doubt that this is an exceptional business, but in our view, the stock’s current valuation”—about 47 times estimated calendar 2022 revenues—“fully reflects it.” He adds that as estimates move higher and the stock grinds sideways, he’s “getting closer to an upgrade,” but isn’t there yet. “We’re content to wait for more of the excess to burn off.”\nLikewise, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss writes in a research note that given the 120% product growth in fiscal 2021, the $10 billion target might be conservative. He adds that “the harder part of the equation may be justifying the valuation based on these targets.” Weiss says the model that Snowflake laid out implies $1.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2029, which values the stock at 51 times free cash flow 8 years out. “While very impressed by the market opportunity …and Snowflake’s opportunity,” he says valuation keeps him on the sidelines. Weiss repeats his Equal Weigh rating and $270 price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186124742,"gmtCreate":1623479754486,"gmtModify":1634032541674,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment !!","listText":"comment !!","text":"comment !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186124742","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186468426,"gmtCreate":1623529174965,"gmtModify":1634032149328,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment :D","listText":"comment :D","text":"comment :D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186468426","repostId":"2142378818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186468099,"gmtCreate":1623528883011,"gmtModify":1634032150040,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment&nbsp;!!","listText":"like and comment&nbsp;!!","text":"like and comment !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186468099","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188292580,"gmtCreate":1623442700040,"gmtModify":1634033166592,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment !!","listText":"comment !!","text":"comment !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188292580","repostId":"1196090491","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196090491","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623418568,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196090491?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 21:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation is undergoing a ‘structural shift’ and these markets will benefit, strategist says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196090491","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May ","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation is undergoing a ‘structural shift’ and these markets will benefit, strategist says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation is undergoing a ‘structural shift’ and these markets will benefit, strategist says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 21:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1196090491","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages are not rising as much as would normally be expected alongside GDP growth rates upward of 6%. Real average hourly earnings, which account for inflation, were down 2.8% in May from the previous year.\n\nEuropean stocks are set to outperform the U.S. as inflation sticks around and commodities begin a new “supercycle,” according to Livermore Partners Chief Investment Officer David Neuhauser.\nTheU.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflationin May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also notched a 28-year high of 3.8%.\nWhilemarkets have broadly dismissedthe current red-hot inflation figures as transitory and fueled by short-term anomalous factors, Neuhauser argued that a more fundamental \"structural shift\" was taking place.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages are not rising as much as would normally be expected alongside GDP growth rates upward of 6%. Real average hourly earnings in the U.S., which account for inflation, were down 2.8% in May from the previous year, according to theBureau of Labor Statistics.\n\"As you are seeing prices for automobiles, as prices for houses, as prices for food and energy go up, even though it looks like the economies are starting to boom, the real issue is you're not seeing wages grow as fast,\" Neuhauser told CNBC's \"Squawk Box Europe\" Friday.\n\"Thus ultimately that is going to start to pinch the consumer and as you know, the consumer is 70%-plus of the economy.\"\nIf inflation is indeed here to stay, as Livermore Partners anticipates, Neuhauser suggested this will cause troubles down the line and will cause the Federal Reserve to apply the brakes to its accommodative monetary policy.\nWage growth sluggish\nNeuhauser pointed to McDonald's and Chipotle as examples of companies that have begun to incur substantial and rising input costs while struggling to attract workers in the wake of the pandemic, leading them to offer bonuses and focus on wage growth.\n\"That is ultimately going to increase the price of their goods and services which will of course increase the prices to consumers,\" he added.\nThis could cause problems if these trends combine with the potential tapering of the Fed's unprecedented bond-buying program, Neuhauser suggested.\n“That is going to have the potential at least to start to rerate markets, which look extremely frothy. Ultimately, that is what you have to focus on as an investor,” he said.\n“You have to look at the numbers and you can push them off to the side, but you can’t do that if you start to see more consistent hotter numbers running forward.”\nCommodities ‘supercycle’\nNeuhauser’s fund is now largely focused on commodities, banks and industrials, as he believes commodities are in the start of a new “supercycle” — a decades-long period in which commodity prices remain above long-term trends.\n“We have seen (fewer) mines being built, we have seen oil and gas see capex (capital expenditure) being pulled away as banks aren’t lending anymore, you are seeing ESG initiatives make front and center stage when it comes to board meetings,” he said.\n“I think there has been this structural shift where you have not seen capital, capital has been starved to the complex and ultimately you have a dollar that is looking to potentially fall apart.”\nThis shift means commodities are the place to be for investors over the next three to five years, he argued.\n“We are playing that in terms of some of the smaller cap free cash flow or cash flow businesses out there,” he said.\n“A lot of it is in Europe and a lot of it is international, so I think Europe is going to outperform the U.S. as we go forward and that is where most of our capital is actually at Livermore, in a lot of these European stocks tied to mining.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186468649,"gmtCreate":1623529058481,"gmtModify":1634032149572,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment !!","listText":"comment !!","text":"comment !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186468649","repostId":"1148565686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186125562,"gmtCreate":1623479675056,"gmtModify":1634032542858,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"trader. !","listText":"trader. !","text":"trader. !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186125562","repostId":"1147474880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147474880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470168,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147474880?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147474880","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless ris","content":"<blockquote>\n Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n</blockquote>\n<p>I’ve had it.</p>\n<p>The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.</p>\n<p>If you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.</p>\n<p>Whenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.</p>\n<p>You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.</p>\n<p>Of course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%<i>are</i>investors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.</p>\n<p>An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.</p>\n<p>The word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”</p>\n<p>He wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)</p>\n<p>“If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”</p>\n<p>Graham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.</p>\n<p>In that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”</p>\n<p>However, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”</p>\n<p>Most investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.</p>\n<p>If you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.</p>\n<p>Take speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.</p>\n<p>I think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.</p>\n<p>“ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”</p>\n<p>I hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.</p>\n<p>Calling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.</p>\n<p>Ina recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”</p>\n<p>In her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.</p>\n<p>The currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)</p>\n<p>PAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.</p>\n<p>Ms. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”</p>\n<p>In Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestor, Trader, Speculator: Which One Are You?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 11:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n\nI’ve had it.\nThe Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147474880","content_text":"Understanding the difference between speculation and investing is essential to avoiding reckless risk.\n\nI’ve had it.\nThe Wall Street Journal is wrong, and has remained wrong for decades, about one of the most basic distinctions in finance. And I can’t stand it anymore.\nIf you buy a stock purely because it’s gone up a lot, without doing any research on it whatsoever, you are not—as the Journal and its editors bizarrely insist on calling you—an “investor.” If you buy a cryptocurrency because, hey, that sounds like fun, you aren’t an investor either.\nWhenever you buy any financial asset becauseyou have a hunchorjust for kicks, or becausesomebody famous is hyping the heck out of itoreverybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.\nYou’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may bea speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.\nOf course,some folkswho buy meme stocks likeGameStopCorp.GME5.88%areinvestors. They read the companies’ financial statements, study the health of the underlying businesses and learn who else is betting on or against the shares. Likewise, many buyers of digital coins have put in the time and effort to understand how cryptocurrency works and how it could reshape finance.\nAn investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarilywhether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.\nThe word investor comes from the Latin “investire,” to dress in or clothe oneself, surround or envelop. You would never wear clothes without knowing what color they are or what material they’re made of. Likewise, you can’t invest in an asset you know nothing about.\nNevertheless, the Journal and its editors have long called almost everybody who buys just about anything an “investor.” On July 12, 1962, the Journal publisheda letter to the editorfrom Benjamin Graham, author of the classic books “Security Analysis” and “The Intelligent Investor.” That June, complained Graham, the Journal had run an article headlined “Many Small Investors Bet on Further Drops, Sell Odd Lots Short.”\nHe wrote: “By what definition of ‘investment’ can one give the name ‘investors’ to small people who make bets on the stock market by selling odd lots short?” (To short an odd lot is to borrow and sell fewer than 100 shares in a wager that a stock will fall—an expensive and risky bet, then and now.)\n“If these people are investors,” asked Graham, “how should one define ‘speculation’ and ‘speculators’? Isn’t it possible that the currentfailure to distinguishbetweeninvestment and speculationmay do grave harm not only to individuals but to the whole financial community—as it did in the late 1920s?”\nGraham wasn’t a snob who thought that the markets should be the exclusive playground of the rich. He wrote “The Intelligent Investor” with the express purpose of helping less-wealthy people participate wisely in the stock market.\nIn that book, after which this column is named, Graham said, “Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook.”\nHowever, he warned, it creates three dangers: “(1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose.”\nMost investors speculate a bit every once in a while. Like a lottery ticket or an occasional visit to the racetrack or casino, a little is harmless fun. A lot isn’t.\nIf you think you’re investing when you’re speculating, you’ll attribute even momentary success to skill even thoughluck is the likeliest explanation. That can lead you to take reckless risks.\nTake speculating too seriously, and it turns intoan obsessionandan addiction. You become incapable of accepting your losses or focusing on the future more than a few minutes ahead. Next thing you know, you’re throwing even more money onto the bonfire.\nI think calling traders and speculators “investors” shoves many newcomers farther down the slippery slope toward risks they shouldn’t take and losses they can’t afford. I fervently hope the Journal and its editors will finally stop using “investor” as the default term for anyone who makes a trade.\n“ ‘Investor’ has a long history in the English language as a catch-all term denoting people who commit capital with the expectation of a return, no matter how long or short, no matter how many or how few investing columns they read,” WSJ Financial Editor Charles Forelle said in response to my complaints. “Back at least to the mid-19th century, ‘invest’ has even been used to describe a wager on horses—an activity surely no less divorced from fundamental analysis than a purchase of dogecoin.”\nI hear you, Boss, but I still think you’re wrong. There’s no way the Journal would say a recreational gambler is “investing” at the racetrack just because a dictionary says we can.\nCalling novice speculators “investors” is one of the most powerful ways marketers fuel excessive trading.\nIna recent Instagram post, a former porn star who goes by the name Lana Rhoades posed in—well, mostly in—a bikini, as she held up what appears to be Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor.” According to IMDb.com, she starred in such videos as “Tushy” and “Make Me Meow.”\nIn her post, which was “liked” by nearly 1.8 million people, Ms. Rhoades announced that she will be promoting a cryptocurrency calledPAWGcoin.\nThe currency’s website says the coin is meant for “those who pay homage to developed posteriors.” (PAWG, I’ve been reliably informed, stands for Phat Ass White Girl.)\nPAWGcoin is up roughly 900% since Ms. Rhoades began promoting it in early June, according to Poocoin.io, a website that tracks such digital currencies.\nMs. Rhoades, who has tweeted “I also read the WSJ every morning,” couldn’t be reached for comment. PAWGcoin’s website encourages visitors to “invest now.”\nIn Ms. Rhoades’s Instagram post, she is holding up an open copy of the “The Intelligent Investor,” whose cover is reversed. She appears to be reading it with her eyes closed.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188296399,"gmtCreate":1623442320611,"gmtModify":1634033167282,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"roar !!","listText":"roar !!","text":"roar !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188296399","repostId":"1135185071","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188298293,"gmtCreate":1623442239412,"gmtModify":1634033167649,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"roar !!","listText":"roar !!","text":"roar !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188298293","repostId":"2142572209","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188298643,"gmtCreate":1623442224282,"gmtModify":1634033167770,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"roarrr","listText":"roarrr","text":"roarrr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188298643","repostId":"2142572209","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188298109,"gmtCreate":1623442155001,"gmtModify":1634033167892,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188298109","repostId":"1198311684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198311684","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623415805,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198311684?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198311684","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavir","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.</p>\n<p>Central banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.</p>\n<p>Will it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Currently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.</p>\n<p>Investors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.</p>\n<p>Or investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.</p>\n<p>Third, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.</p>\n<p>An alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.</p>\n<p>Fourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) &nbsp;TIP,+0.52%&nbsp;or commodities.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Fifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.</p>\n<p>The ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.</p>\n<p>Investors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Policymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Perhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198311684","content_text":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.\nCentral banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.\nWill it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates. \nCurrently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.\nInvestors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.\nOr investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.\nThird, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.\nAn alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.\nFourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)  TIP,+0.52% or commodities. \nFifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.\nThe ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.\nInvestors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising. \nPolicymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns. \nPerhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188610885,"gmtCreate":1623431590447,"gmtModify":1634033222944,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nicee","listText":"nicee","text":"nicee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188610885","repostId":"2142208493","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188692139,"gmtCreate":1623430887121,"gmtModify":1634033232534,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"baba","listText":"baba","text":"baba","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188692139","repostId":"1195128984","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188696738,"gmtCreate":1623430861624,"gmtModify":1634033232898,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188696738","repostId":"1146386859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188696952,"gmtCreate":1623430841976,"gmtModify":1634033233586,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188696952","repostId":"1114257617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114257617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623425495,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114257617?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114257617","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on","content":"<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming that<i>the Fed is wrong</i>, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn<i>\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"</i></p>\n<p>But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.</p>\n<p><b>Presenting Exhibit A</b>: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and homes...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when we just got<b>Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.</b></p>\n<p>While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.</p>\n<p>And as Curtin adds, \"<b>these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.</b>These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"</p>\n<p>This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This, for better or worse,<b>screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,</b>as Curting elaborates:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.</i> \n <i><b>The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.</p>\n<p>What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.</p>\n<p>One thing is certain:<b>six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114257617","content_text":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get  (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming thatthe Fed is wrong, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"\nBut none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.\nPresenting Exhibit A: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.\n\nThe drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...\n\n... and homes...\n\nThis confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.\n\nFast forward to today when we just gotExhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.\nWhile there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...\n\n... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.\nAnd as Curtin adds, \"these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"\nThis can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.\n\nThis, for better or worse,screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,as Curting elaborates:\n\n... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.\nThe acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.\n\nThe problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.\n\nWhile expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.\n\nOh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.\nWhat does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.\nOne thing is certain:six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188698703,"gmtCreate":1623430824402,"gmtModify":1634033233708,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188698703","repostId":"1114257617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114257617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623425495,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114257617?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114257617","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on","content":"<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get&nbsp; (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming that<i>the Fed is wrong</i>, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn<i>\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"</i></p>\n<p>But none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.</p>\n<p><b>Presenting Exhibit A</b>: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/440125680ea111da38a7c9adbc47f811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483ef9fdbbe4fe34fc94863262839a85\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... and homes...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea40a948d838e7eaa00fbde1f60e1906\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49f04b77740aab4ba75d00085dd8ada\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when we just got<b>Exhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.</b></p>\n<p>While there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0cf98553bfedc6500457c9aa3cbe0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.</p>\n<p>And as Curtin adds, \"<b>these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.</b>These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"</p>\n<p>This can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46f5f27af1090c20579d573274a9f52\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This, for better or worse,<b>screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,</b>as Curting elaborates:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.</i> \n <i><b>The acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>While expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.</p>\n<p>What does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.</p>\n<p>One thing is certain:<b>six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hangover Arrives: Explosive Inflation Leads To Record Collapse In Home, Car Purchase Plans\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-arrives-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114257617","content_text":"For the past several months we have warned about the pernicious effects soaring prices are having on both corporations (\"Buckle Up! Inflation Is Here!\") and consumers (\"\"This Is Not Transitory\": Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America\"), prompting even otherwise boring sellside research to get  (hyper) exciting, with Deutsche Bank (which warned this week that \"Inflation Is About To Explode \"Leaving Global Economies Sitting On A Time Bomb\"\") and Bank of America (which \"Just Threw Up All Over The Fed's \"Transitory\" Argument\") now openly claiming thatthe Fed is wrong, and the US is facing an unprecedented period of far higher, non-transitory inflation, with DB going so far as towarn\"policymakers will face the most challenging years since the Volcker/Reagan period in the 1980s.\"\nBut none of this has spooked the Fed into conceding - or believing - that inflation is anything more than transitory. And maybe just this once, the Fed has a point because all else equal, by which we mean lack of rising wages, the best cure to higher prices is, well... higher prices.\nPresenting Exhibit A: two weeks ago,we observed that anticipatingan end to Biden's stimmy bonanza end and that soon they will have to live again within their means, Americans' buying intentions (6 months from today) as measured by the Conference Board, had cratered across the 3 major spending categories: homes, automobiles and major household appliances.\n\nThe drop was so massive, it amounted to the biggest one-month drop in intentions to purchase appliances...\n\n... and homes...\n\nThis confirms what wenoted earlier, namely a record divergence between crashing homebuyer confidence (due to record home prices) and soaring homebuilder confidence (also due to record home prices). Guess which one will matter in the end.\n\nFast forward to today when we just gotExhibit B: the June UMichigan Sentiment Survey.\nWhile there wassome good news here, in that inflation expectations for both the 1-year and 5-10 look ahead periods dropped slightly...\n\n... what we found more concerning is what chief economist, Richard Curtin said namely that since \"Rising inflation remained a top concern of consumers\", the spontaneous references to market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables fell to their worst level since the all-time record in November 1974.\nAnd as Curtin adds, \"these unfavorable perceptions of market prices reduced overall buying attitudes for vehicles and homes to their lowest point since 1982.These declines were especially sharp among those with incomes in the top third, who account for more than half of the dollar volume of retail sales.\"\nThis can be seen in the following chart showing records across the board for \"bad buying conditions\" due to high prices for houses, durable goods and autos. In other words, due to soarking prices is America is going on a buyers' strike.\n\nThis, for better or worse,screams not only stagflation but also permanently higher prices,as Curting elaborates:\n\n... in the emergence from the pandemic, consumers are temporarily less sensitive to prices due to pent-up demand and record savings as well as improved job and income prospects.\nThe acceptance of price increases as due to the pandemic, makes inflationary psychology more likely to gain a foothold if the exit is lengthy.\n\nThe problem: sooner or laters the stimmies will end, but prices by then will already be fixed higher, and good luck trying to pull them down.\n\nWhile expansive monetary and fiscal policies are still warranted, the accompanying rise in inflation will cause uneven distributional impacts. Those impacts have already been noticed in June among the elderly and lower income households. A shift in the Fed's policy language could douse any incipient inflationary psychology, it would be no surprise to consumers, as two-thirds already expect higher interest rates in the year ahead.\n\nOh, and for those saying wage hikes may be permanent we have some bad news: employers know very well that the extended unemployment benefits bonanza ends in September at which point millions of currently unemployed workers will flood back into the labor force sending wages sharply lower, and is why instead of raising base pay, most potential employers offer one-time bonuses, which - as the name implies - are one-time. As for higher wage pressures, well... just wait until October when everything reverses, Uncle Sam is no longer a better paying competitor to the US private sector, and wages slump.\nWhat does that mean for the economy? Well, all those producers and retailers who got used to bumper demand and pushed their prices sharply and not so sharply higher, will face a stark choice: either drag prices right back down, or sell far fewer goods and services. That, or just await the next bailout.\nOne thing is certain:six months from today, the US economy will be far, far uglier.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188698973,"gmtCreate":1623430799092,"gmtModify":1634033234299,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188698973","repostId":"1135185071","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188691910,"gmtCreate":1623430756430,"gmtModify":1634033234971,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment","listText":"comment","text":"comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188691910","repostId":"1135185071","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188602633,"gmtCreate":1623430477722,"gmtModify":1634033239508,"author":{"id":"3584342589442845","authorId":"3584342589442845","name":"JngJiaRong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342589442845","authorIdStr":"3584342589442845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment !!","listText":"comment !!","text":"comment !!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188602633","repostId":"2142572209","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}