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2021-11-10

O

Blackstone Turns Sluggish Credit Business Into a Winner<blockquote>黑石将低迷的信贷业务转变为赢家</blockquote>

2021-11-06

Good

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2021-10-25

Wow

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2021-10-24

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The PC slowdown shouldn't hurt Microsoft earnings, and here's why<blockquote>个人电脑放缓不应损害微软的盈利，原因如下</blockquote>

2021-10-21

Wow

Tesla’s earnings show is more cautious — and yes, boring — without Elon around<blockquote>没有埃隆在场，特斯拉的财报更加谨慎——是的，也很无聊——</blockquote>

2021-10-17

Wow

JPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通看好亚马逊股票：29%的上涨潜力</blockquote>

2021-10-11

O

3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>

2021-10-09

Oh

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2021-10-08

O

U.S. economy adds 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecast<blockquote>美国9月经济新增就业岗位19.4万个，远低于预期</blockquote>

2021-10-02

Nice

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2021-09-29

Wow

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2021-09-27

Oh

Why Bitcoin, Ethereum And Dogecoin Could Be In For A Bumpy Road Ahead<blockquote>为什么比特币、以太币和狗狗币的前路可能会坎坷</blockquote>

2021-09-25

Oh

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2021-09-24

Wow

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2021-09-24

Oh

Remitly Global opens for trading at $53, up about 23% from IPO price<blockquote>Remitly Global开盘价为53美元，较IPO价格上涨约23%</blockquote>

2021-09-23

Oh

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2021-09-20

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SmileDirectClub surged nearly 18% in premarket trading<blockquote>SmileDirectClub盘前交易飙升近18%</blockquote>

2021-08-24

Wow

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2021-08-15

Wow

US IPO Week Ahead: IPO calendar is quiet amid annual August break<blockquote>美国IPO一周：八月年度假期期间IPO日历平静</blockquote>

2021-08-06

Good

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"listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847492718","repostId":"1151092697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151092697","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636540850,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151092697?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-10 18:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Blackstone Turns Sluggish Credit Business Into a Winner<blockquote>黑石将低迷的信贷业务转变为赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151092697","media":"Wall Street Journal","summary":"Blackstone Inc.towers over most of its private-equity peers with $731 billion in assets, but the fir","content":"<p>Blackstone&nbsp;Inc.towers over most of its private-equity peers with $731 billion in assets, but the firm has had a soft underbelly for years: its sluggish lending business. Now, credit has become one of the firm’s fastest-growing segments, part of a broad shift under the leadership of President Jonathan Gray.</p><p><blockquote>Blackstone Inc.以7,310亿美元的资产超越了大多数私募股权同行，但该公司多年来一直有一个软肋：其低迷的贷款业务。现在，信贷已成为该公司增长最快的部门之一，这是总裁乔纳森·格雷(Jonathan Gray)领导下广泛转变的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Assets under management in the unit, which makes corporate loans backing leveraged buyouts for other private-equity firms, jumped 22% to $188 billion this year through Sept. 30. Private-equity assets under management rose 17% to $231.5 billion over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>截至9月30日，该部门管理的资产今年增长了22%，达到1,880亿美元，该部门为其他私募股权公司的杠杆收购提供企业贷款。同期管理的私募股权资产增长17%，达到2,315亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone is expanding in the space by launching low-fee funds and selling them to wealthy individuals who might not qualify for products tailored to institutions like pension plans. The strategy replicated a move that Mr. Grayused to turbocharge the growthof the firm’s real-estate investment trust, called BREIT.</p><p><blockquote>黑石正在通过推出低费用基金并将其出售给可能没有资格获得为养老金计划等机构量身定制的产品的富人来拓展这一领域。该策略复制了格雷先生用来推动该公司房地产投资信托基金BREIT增长的举措。</blockquote></p><p> It also marks a culture shift, as the hedge-fund operations that once lent Blackstone its Wall Street cachet fall out of favor. And large money managers that traditionally focused on private equity see a bigger opportunity in debt, where the addressable market could be as large as $40 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>这也标志着一种文化转变，因为曾经让黑石在华尔街享有盛誉的对冲基金业务失宠了。传统上专注于私募股权的大型基金经理看到了债务方面的更大机会，潜在市场可能高达40万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The resurgent credit business should help Blackstone in the race for investor dollars against its principal competitors, includingApollo Global ManagementInc.,Ares ManagementCorp.and KKR &amp; Co.</p><p><blockquote>复兴的信贷业务应该有助于黑石与主要竞争对手（包括阿波罗全球管理公司、战神管理公司和KKR&amp;Co.）争夺投资者资金。</blockquote></p><p> Debt specialists Apollo and Ares have pledged to boost assets to $1 trillion and $500 billion, respectively, in coming years, while KKR more than doubled its credit business this year, primarily by purchasing insurer Global Atlantic Financial Group Ltd. Only Ares grew its own credit business as fast as Blackstone this year.</p><p><blockquote>债务专家Apollo和Ares承诺在未来几年将资产分别增加到1万亿美元和5000亿美元，而KKR今年的信贷业务增加了一倍多，主要是通过收购保险公司Global Atlantic Financial Group Ltd。只有Ares实现了自身的增长今年信贷业务与黑石一样快。</blockquote></p><p> Several large credit firms vied to win the lead role providing $2.6 billion of loans this year for private-equity firm Thoma Bravo LP’s leveraged buyout of Stamps.com Inc. Blackstone walked away with the top spot by offering to backstop the entire amount, Dwight Scott, head of Blackstone Credit, said.</p><p><blockquote>几家大型信贷公司竞相争夺主导地位，今年为私募股权公司Thoma Bravo LP杠杆收购Stamps.com Inc.提供了26亿美元的贷款。黑石集团(Blackstone)通过提供全额支持而夺得了头把交椅。黑石信贷负责人表示。</blockquote></p><p> The firm historically operated in debt markets through GSO Capital Partners, a hedge-fund manager it acquired in 2008 that was known for large, aggressive and lucrative trades. GSO’s founders— Bennett Goodman, Tripp Smith and Doug Ostrover —all left Blackstone in recent years. The credit business jettisoned the GSO name last year and has shut its hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>该公司历来通过GSO Capital Partners在债务市场开展业务，GSO Capital Partners是该公司于2008年收购的一家对冲基金管理公司，以大规模、激进和利润丰厚的交易而闻名。GSO的创始人贝内特·古德曼(Bennett Goodman)、特里普·史密斯(Tripp Smith)和道格·奥斯特罗弗(Doug Ostrover)近年来均离开了黑石。该信贷业务去年放弃了GSO名称，并关闭了其对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone’s separate hedge-fund solutions business has shrunk in importance to 11% of total assets, down from 19.4% five years ago, according to earnings reports. John McCormick, co-head of Blackstone’s funds-of-hedge-funds business, told colleagues last month thathe plans to resign.</p><p><blockquote>财报显示，黑石独立的对冲基金解决方案业务占总资产的比重已从五年前的19.4%降至11%。黑石对冲基金业务联席主管约翰·麦考密克上个月告诉同事，他计划辞职。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund solutions unit’s “revenues and earnings have doubled in the last three years and the business will continue to expand through new offerings and senior hires,” a Blackstone spokeswoman said.</p><p><blockquote>黑石发言人表示，该对冲基金解决方案部门的“收入和盈利在过去三年中翻了一番，业务将通过新产品和高级员工继续扩张”。</blockquote></p><p> The rebranded Blackstone Credit is aggressively marketing less-risky, cheaper funds to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>更名后的Blackstone Credit正在积极向个人投资者推销风险较低、成本较低的基金。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s all about de-risking the portfolio,” said Mr. Scott. Blackstone believes the lower-fee products allow it to deliver attractive returns to investors without reaching for yield by purchasing debt with a higher chance of default, he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这一切都是为了降低投资组合的风险，”斯科特先生说。他表示，黑石认为，费用较低的产品使其能够为投资者提供有吸引力的回报，而无需通过购买违约可能性较高的债务来获得收益率。</blockquote></p><p> The credit revamp is part of Blackstone’s aim to achieve $1 trillion in assets by 2026. To get there, Mr. Gray has encouraged Blackstone’s business headsto embrace a thematic investing approachfocused on fast-growing industries. In credit, this translates into more loans to sectors such as technology and life sciences.</p><p><blockquote>此次信贷重组是黑石到2026年实现1万亿美元资产目标的一部分。为了实现这一目标，格雷先生鼓励黑石业务负责人采用专注于快速增长行业的主题投资方法。在信贷方面，这转化为对技术和生命科学等行业的更多贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone earlier this year launched BCRED, a business development company, or BDC, which makes direct loans to medium-size companies. BCRED raised $9.4 billion through share sales this year, primarily to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>Blackstone今年早些时候推出了BCRED，这是一家业务开发公司，简称BDC，向中型公司提供直接贷款。BCRED今年通过股票销售筹集了94亿美元，主要面向个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone made its first big foray into credit whenit bought GSOfor about $1 billion. GSO hedge funds excelled at big risky bets on distressed debt thatreturned as much as $100 million each.</p><p><blockquote>黑石集团首次大举进军信贷领域，以约10亿美元收购了GSO。GSO对冲基金擅长对不良债务进行高风险押注，每笔回报高达1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The firm also joined with Franklin Square Holdings LP, which launched a BDC in 2009. GSO made the loans and split management fees with Franklin Square, which raised money from individual investors. Upfront broker and management fees averaged 9.4% in the BDC’s early days, high enough toattract scrutiny from regulators.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还与Franklin Square Holdings LP合作，后者于2009年推出了BDC。GSO发放贷款并与富兰克林广场分摊管理费，富兰克林广场从个人投资者那里筹集资金。BDC早期的前期经纪费和管理费平均为9.4%，高到足以引起监管机构的审查。</blockquote></p><p> Credit assets jumped about fivefold to $128 billion in the decade after the GSO acquisition as the business built a mixture of BDCs, hedge funds and securitized bundles of low-rated debt known as collateralized loan obligations.</p><p><blockquote>在收购GSO后的十年里，信贷资产增长了约五倍，达到1280亿美元，因为该业务建立了BDC、对冲基金和低评级债务证券化捆绑（即抵押贷款债券）的组合。</blockquote></p><p> The growth stalled out in mid-2018 when the venture with Franklin Square dissolved over the profit-sharing split and differing growth strategies. Blackstoneexited from the businessin exchange for a $640 million breakup fee. The last of the GSO founders resigned shortly afterward.</p><p><blockquote>2018年年中，由于利润分享分割和不同的增长战略，与富兰克林广场的合资企业解散，增长陷入停滞。黑石退出了该业务，以换取6.4亿美元的分手费。GSO的最后一位创始人不久后辞职。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Credit assets under management rose by 3.1% to $144.3 billion from April 2018 to the end of 2019 even as Blackstone’s overall assets swelled by 27%, according to company earnings reports. Apollo’s credit assets grew 30.4% over the same period to $215.5 billion and Ares’s surged 43% to $110.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>根据公司收益报告，从2018年4月到2019年底，管理的信贷资产增长了3.1%，达到1,443亿美元，尽管黑石的整体资产增长了27%。Apollo的信贷资产同期增长30.4%，达到2,155亿美元，Ares的信贷资产飙升43%，达到1,105亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone spent that time designing the terms and sales engine for its new BDC, from which it earns all of the management fees, said Brad Marshall, co-head of performing credit at the firm. BCRED uses the same brokers that sell BREIT for marketing and charges a 1.25% management fee and a 12.5% performance fee. Most big competitors charge 1.5% and 17.5%-20%, respectively, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.</p><p><blockquote>该公司执行信贷联席主管布拉德·马歇尔(Brad Marshall)表示，黑石集团花了这段时间为其新的BDC设计条款和销售引擎，并从中赚取所有管理费。BCRED使用与销售BREIT相同的经纪人进行营销，并收取1.25%的管理费和12.5%的绩效费。根据美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，大多数大型竞争对手的收费分别为1.5%和17.5%-20%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Blackstone Turns Sluggish Credit Business Into a Winner<blockquote>黑石将低迷的信贷业务转变为赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackstone Turns Sluggish Credit Business Into a Winner<blockquote>黑石将低迷的信贷业务转变为赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-10 18:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Blackstone&nbsp;Inc.towers over most of its private-equity peers with $731 billion in assets, but the firm has had a soft underbelly for years: its sluggish lending business. Now, credit has become one of the firm’s fastest-growing segments, part of a broad shift under the leadership of President Jonathan Gray.</p><p><blockquote>Blackstone Inc.以7,310亿美元的资产超越了大多数私募股权同行，但该公司多年来一直有一个软肋：其低迷的贷款业务。现在，信贷已成为该公司增长最快的部门之一，这是总裁乔纳森·格雷(Jonathan Gray)领导下广泛转变的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Assets under management in the unit, which makes corporate loans backing leveraged buyouts for other private-equity firms, jumped 22% to $188 billion this year through Sept. 30. Private-equity assets under management rose 17% to $231.5 billion over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>截至9月30日，该部门管理的资产今年增长了22%，达到1,880亿美元，该部门为其他私募股权公司的杠杆收购提供企业贷款。同期管理的私募股权资产增长17%，达到2,315亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone is expanding in the space by launching low-fee funds and selling them to wealthy individuals who might not qualify for products tailored to institutions like pension plans. The strategy replicated a move that Mr. Grayused to turbocharge the growthof the firm’s real-estate investment trust, called BREIT.</p><p><blockquote>黑石正在通过推出低费用基金并将其出售给可能没有资格获得为养老金计划等机构量身定制的产品的富人来拓展这一领域。该策略复制了格雷先生用来推动该公司房地产投资信托基金BREIT增长的举措。</blockquote></p><p> It also marks a culture shift, as the hedge-fund operations that once lent Blackstone its Wall Street cachet fall out of favor. And large money managers that traditionally focused on private equity see a bigger opportunity in debt, where the addressable market could be as large as $40 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>这也标志着一种文化转变，因为曾经让黑石在华尔街享有盛誉的对冲基金业务失宠了。传统上专注于私募股权的大型基金经理看到了债务方面的更大机会，潜在市场可能高达40万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The resurgent credit business should help Blackstone in the race for investor dollars against its principal competitors, includingApollo Global ManagementInc.,Ares ManagementCorp.and KKR &amp; Co.</p><p><blockquote>复兴的信贷业务应该有助于黑石与主要竞争对手（包括阿波罗全球管理公司、战神管理公司和KKR&amp;Co.）争夺投资者资金。</blockquote></p><p> Debt specialists Apollo and Ares have pledged to boost assets to $1 trillion and $500 billion, respectively, in coming years, while KKR more than doubled its credit business this year, primarily by purchasing insurer Global Atlantic Financial Group Ltd. Only Ares grew its own credit business as fast as Blackstone this year.</p><p><blockquote>债务专家Apollo和Ares承诺在未来几年将资产分别增加到1万亿美元和5000亿美元，而KKR今年的信贷业务增加了一倍多，主要是通过收购保险公司Global Atlantic Financial Group Ltd。只有Ares实现了自身的增长今年信贷业务与黑石一样快。</blockquote></p><p> Several large credit firms vied to win the lead role providing $2.6 billion of loans this year for private-equity firm Thoma Bravo LP’s leveraged buyout of Stamps.com Inc. Blackstone walked away with the top spot by offering to backstop the entire amount, Dwight Scott, head of Blackstone Credit, said.</p><p><blockquote>几家大型信贷公司竞相争夺主导地位，今年为私募股权公司Thoma Bravo LP杠杆收购Stamps.com Inc.提供了26亿美元的贷款。黑石集团(Blackstone)通过提供全额支持而夺得了头把交椅。黑石信贷负责人表示。</blockquote></p><p> The firm historically operated in debt markets through GSO Capital Partners, a hedge-fund manager it acquired in 2008 that was known for large, aggressive and lucrative trades. GSO’s founders— Bennett Goodman, Tripp Smith and Doug Ostrover —all left Blackstone in recent years. The credit business jettisoned the GSO name last year and has shut its hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>该公司历来通过GSO Capital Partners在债务市场开展业务，GSO Capital Partners是该公司于2008年收购的一家对冲基金管理公司，以大规模、激进和利润丰厚的交易而闻名。GSO的创始人贝内特·古德曼(Bennett Goodman)、特里普·史密斯(Tripp Smith)和道格·奥斯特罗弗(Doug Ostrover)近年来均离开了黑石。该信贷业务去年放弃了GSO名称，并关闭了其对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone’s separate hedge-fund solutions business has shrunk in importance to 11% of total assets, down from 19.4% five years ago, according to earnings reports. John McCormick, co-head of Blackstone’s funds-of-hedge-funds business, told colleagues last month thathe plans to resign.</p><p><blockquote>财报显示，黑石独立的对冲基金解决方案业务占总资产的比重已从五年前的19.4%降至11%。黑石对冲基金业务联席主管约翰·麦考密克上个月告诉同事，他计划辞职。</blockquote></p><p> The hedge-fund solutions unit’s “revenues and earnings have doubled in the last three years and the business will continue to expand through new offerings and senior hires,” a Blackstone spokeswoman said.</p><p><blockquote>黑石发言人表示，该对冲基金解决方案部门的“收入和盈利在过去三年中翻了一番，业务将通过新产品和高级员工继续扩张”。</blockquote></p><p> The rebranded Blackstone Credit is aggressively marketing less-risky, cheaper funds to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>更名后的Blackstone Credit正在积极向个人投资者推销风险较低、成本较低的基金。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s all about de-risking the portfolio,” said Mr. Scott. Blackstone believes the lower-fee products allow it to deliver attractive returns to investors without reaching for yield by purchasing debt with a higher chance of default, he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这一切都是为了降低投资组合的风险，”斯科特先生说。他表示，黑石认为，费用较低的产品使其能够为投资者提供有吸引力的回报，而无需通过购买违约可能性较高的债务来获得收益率。</blockquote></p><p> The credit revamp is part of Blackstone’s aim to achieve $1 trillion in assets by 2026. To get there, Mr. Gray has encouraged Blackstone’s business headsto embrace a thematic investing approachfocused on fast-growing industries. In credit, this translates into more loans to sectors such as technology and life sciences.</p><p><blockquote>此次信贷重组是黑石到2026年实现1万亿美元资产目标的一部分。为了实现这一目标，格雷先生鼓励黑石业务负责人采用专注于快速增长行业的主题投资方法。在信贷方面，这转化为对技术和生命科学等行业的更多贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone earlier this year launched BCRED, a business development company, or BDC, which makes direct loans to medium-size companies. BCRED raised $9.4 billion through share sales this year, primarily to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>Blackstone今年早些时候推出了BCRED，这是一家业务开发公司，简称BDC，向中型公司提供直接贷款。BCRED今年通过股票销售筹集了94亿美元，主要面向个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone made its first big foray into credit whenit bought GSOfor about $1 billion. GSO hedge funds excelled at big risky bets on distressed debt thatreturned as much as $100 million each.</p><p><blockquote>黑石集团首次大举进军信贷领域，以约10亿美元收购了GSO。GSO对冲基金擅长对不良债务进行高风险押注，每笔回报高达1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The firm also joined with Franklin Square Holdings LP, which launched a BDC in 2009. GSO made the loans and split management fees with Franklin Square, which raised money from individual investors. Upfront broker and management fees averaged 9.4% in the BDC’s early days, high enough toattract scrutiny from regulators.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还与Franklin Square Holdings LP合作，后者于2009年推出了BDC。GSO发放贷款并与富兰克林广场分摊管理费，富兰克林广场从个人投资者那里筹集资金。BDC早期的前期经纪费和管理费平均为9.4%，高到足以引起监管机构的审查。</blockquote></p><p> Credit assets jumped about fivefold to $128 billion in the decade after the GSO acquisition as the business built a mixture of BDCs, hedge funds and securitized bundles of low-rated debt known as collateralized loan obligations.</p><p><blockquote>在收购GSO后的十年里，信贷资产增长了约五倍，达到1280亿美元，因为该业务建立了BDC、对冲基金和低评级债务证券化捆绑（即抵押贷款债券）的组合。</blockquote></p><p> The growth stalled out in mid-2018 when the venture with Franklin Square dissolved over the profit-sharing split and differing growth strategies. Blackstoneexited from the businessin exchange for a $640 million breakup fee. The last of the GSO founders resigned shortly afterward.</p><p><blockquote>2018年年中，由于利润分享分割和不同的增长战略，与富兰克林广场的合资企业解散，增长陷入停滞。黑石退出了该业务，以换取6.4亿美元的分手费。GSO的最后一位创始人不久后辞职。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Credit assets under management rose by 3.1% to $144.3 billion from April 2018 to the end of 2019 even as Blackstone’s overall assets swelled by 27%, according to company earnings reports. Apollo’s credit assets grew 30.4% over the same period to $215.5 billion and Ares’s surged 43% to $110.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>根据公司收益报告，从2018年4月到2019年底，管理的信贷资产增长了3.1%，达到1,443亿美元，尽管黑石的整体资产增长了27%。Apollo的信贷资产同期增长30.4%，达到2,155亿美元，Ares的信贷资产飙升43%，达到1,105亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Blackstone spent that time designing the terms and sales engine for its new BDC, from which it earns all of the management fees, said Brad Marshall, co-head of performing credit at the firm. BCRED uses the same brokers that sell BREIT for marketing and charges a 1.25% management fee and a 12.5% performance fee. Most big competitors charge 1.5% and 17.5%-20%, respectively, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.</p><p><blockquote>该公司执行信贷联席主管布拉德·马歇尔(Brad Marshall)表示，黑石集团花了这段时间为其新的BDC设计条款和销售引擎，并从中赚取所有管理费。BCRED使用与销售BREIT相同的经纪人进行营销，并收取1.25%的管理费和12.5%的绩效费。根据美国证券交易委员会提交的文件，大多数大型竞争对手的收费分别为1.5%和17.5%-20%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-turns-sluggish-credit-business-into-a-winner-11636540201?siteid=yhoof2\">Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BX":"黑石"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-turns-sluggish-credit-business-into-a-winner-11636540201?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151092697","content_text":"Blackstone Inc.towers over most of its private-equity peers with $731 billion in assets, but the firm has had a soft underbelly for years: its sluggish lending business. Now, credit has become one of the firm’s fastest-growing segments, part of a broad shift under the leadership of President Jonathan Gray.\nAssets under management in the unit, which makes corporate loans backing leveraged buyouts for other private-equity firms, jumped 22% to $188 billion this year through Sept. 30. Private-equity assets under management rose 17% to $231.5 billion over the same period.\nBlackstone is expanding in the space by launching low-fee funds and selling them to wealthy individuals who might not qualify for products tailored to institutions like pension plans. The strategy replicated a move that Mr. Grayused to turbocharge the growthof the firm’s real-estate investment trust, called BREIT.\nIt also marks a culture shift, as the hedge-fund operations that once lent Blackstone its Wall Street cachet fall out of favor. And large money managers that traditionally focused on private equity see a bigger opportunity in debt, where the addressable market could be as large as $40 trillion.\nThe resurgent credit business should help Blackstone in the race for investor dollars against its principal competitors, includingApollo Global ManagementInc.,Ares ManagementCorp.and KKR & Co.\nDebt specialists Apollo and Ares have pledged to boost assets to $1 trillion and $500 billion, respectively, in coming years, while KKR more than doubled its credit business this year, primarily by purchasing insurer Global Atlantic Financial Group Ltd. Only Ares grew its own credit business as fast as Blackstone this year.\nSeveral large credit firms vied to win the lead role providing $2.6 billion of loans this year for private-equity firm Thoma Bravo LP’s leveraged buyout of Stamps.com Inc. Blackstone walked away with the top spot by offering to backstop the entire amount, Dwight Scott, head of Blackstone Credit, said.\nThe firm historically operated in debt markets through GSO Capital Partners, a hedge-fund manager it acquired in 2008 that was known for large, aggressive and lucrative trades. GSO’s founders— Bennett Goodman, Tripp Smith and Doug Ostrover —all left Blackstone in recent years. The credit business jettisoned the GSO name last year and has shut its hedge funds.\nBlackstone’s separate hedge-fund solutions business has shrunk in importance to 11% of total assets, down from 19.4% five years ago, according to earnings reports. John McCormick, co-head of Blackstone’s funds-of-hedge-funds business, told colleagues last month thathe plans to resign.\nThe hedge-fund solutions unit’s “revenues and earnings have doubled in the last three years and the business will continue to expand through new offerings and senior hires,” a Blackstone spokeswoman said.\nThe rebranded Blackstone Credit is aggressively marketing less-risky, cheaper funds to individual investors.\n“It’s all about de-risking the portfolio,” said Mr. Scott. Blackstone believes the lower-fee products allow it to deliver attractive returns to investors without reaching for yield by purchasing debt with a higher chance of default, he said.\nThe credit revamp is part of Blackstone’s aim to achieve $1 trillion in assets by 2026. To get there, Mr. Gray has encouraged Blackstone’s business headsto embrace a thematic investing approachfocused on fast-growing industries. In credit, this translates into more loans to sectors such as technology and life sciences.\nBlackstone earlier this year launched BCRED, a business development company, or BDC, which makes direct loans to medium-size companies. BCRED raised $9.4 billion through share sales this year, primarily to individual investors.\nBlackstone made its first big foray into credit whenit bought GSOfor about $1 billion. GSO hedge funds excelled at big risky bets on distressed debt thatreturned as much as $100 million each.\nThe firm also joined with Franklin Square Holdings LP, which launched a BDC in 2009. GSO made the loans and split management fees with Franklin Square, which raised money from individual investors. Upfront broker and management fees averaged 9.4% in the BDC’s early days, high enough toattract scrutiny from regulators.\nCredit assets jumped about fivefold to $128 billion in the decade after the GSO acquisition as the business built a mixture of BDCs, hedge funds and securitized bundles of low-rated debt known as collateralized loan obligations.\nThe growth stalled out in mid-2018 when the venture with Franklin Square dissolved over the profit-sharing split and differing growth strategies. Blackstoneexited from the businessin exchange for a $640 million breakup fee. The last of the GSO founders resigned shortly afterward.\nCredit assets under management rose by 3.1% to $144.3 billion from April 2018 to the end of 2019 even as Blackstone’s overall assets swelled by 27%, according to company earnings reports. Apollo’s credit assets grew 30.4% over the same period to $215.5 billion and Ares’s surged 43% to $110.5 billion.\nBlackstone spent that time designing the terms and sales engine for its new BDC, from which it earns all of the management fees, said Brad Marshall, co-head of performing credit at the firm. BCRED uses the same brokers that sell BREIT for marketing and charges a 1.25% management fee and a 12.5% performance fee. Most big competitors charge 1.5% and 17.5%-20%, respectively, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842619241,"gmtCreate":1636168955907,"gmtModify":1636168956127,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842619241","repostId":"1173813098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856142608,"gmtCreate":1635164547846,"gmtModify":1635164548042,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856142608","repostId":"2178292924","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858657951,"gmtCreate":1635048340087,"gmtModify":1635048340286,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858657951","repostId":"2177489964","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2177489964","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635042148,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2177489964?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-24 10:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The PC slowdown shouldn't hurt Microsoft earnings, and here's why<blockquote>个人电脑放缓不应损害微软的盈利，原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2177489964","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain iss","content":"<p>Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain issues affecting PC sales</p><p><blockquote>Azure和其他云产品的增长应该会掩盖影响PC销售的供应链问题带来的任何失望</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/958e56d50bc03c5ef2195a2a879bec71\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft Corp. is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软定于周二盘后发布第一财季财报。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in personal computer sales due to supply-chain issues in recent months would have hurt Microsoft Corp. in past years, but the company's pivot to cloud computing and cloud software should insulate it from any earnings fallout.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，由于供应链问题导致的个人电脑销售放缓在过去几年可能会损害微软公司，但该公司转向云计算和云软件应该会使其免受任何盈利影响。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon, as it rolls out its new Windows 11 operating system and PC makers struggle to deliver new machines. While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.</p><p><blockquote>微软定于周二下午公布第一财季财报，该公司将推出新的Windows 11操作系统，而PC制造商正在努力交付新机器。如果个人电脑出货量受损且新操作系统没有迅速采用，Bill Gates和Steve Ballmer的微软将面临华尔街的大量悲观情绪，但Satya Nadella的微软应该会很好。</blockquote></p><p> That is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s&nbsp;Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为分析师和投资者主要关注Azure（微软对亚马逊公司Amazon Web Services的云计算解决方案）以及云软件产品，从而降低了微软PC业务的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> \"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"</p><p><blockquote>“持续的数字化转型势头应该会抵消IDC和Gartner对PC设备出货量的混合估计的影响，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师在报告的预览中写道，稍后补充道：“虽然我们对Windows OEM厂商的负增长前景给微软的长期收益预期带来压力，但我们也注意到，总体而言，Windows OEM厂商代表总体微软收入和毛利的组合不断下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Azure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google&nbsp;(GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).</p><p><blockquote>Azure已经确保Windows对微软的重要性已经下降。快速增长的云业务是所有有关微软的分析师报告的首要内容，分析师预计收入将增长40%左右。（尽管AWS和谷歌（GOOGL）云为其竞争服务提供了全部收入和营业利润，但微软没有披露Azure的性能，除了百分比增益）。</blockquote></p><p> \"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“从根本上说，之前签署的长期Azure协议的贡献不断增加、新冠疫情后持续的云迁移、微软对云垂直化的日益关注以及微软365席位的强劲增长可以维持Azure的长期持久增长。”</blockquote></p><p> There are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.</p><p><blockquote>还有一些因素也可能促进微软的增长，尤其是在预测中。对专注于医疗保健的公司Nuance的197亿美元收购预计将在今年年底前完成，微软最近透露，其基于云的收入将与Azure归入同一收入类别。</blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软没有透露这到底意味着什么，但瑞银分析师在9月份表示，Nuance之前的披露以及他们与该公司投资者关系团队的看涨期权使他们估计Nuance约46%的收入将来自云。他们估计，如果将整个季度包括在内，这意味着微软云部门在第二财季的销售额将增加约9100万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Another bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.</p><p><blockquote>微软最受欢迎的云软件产品Office 365的价格上涨可能会在未来带来另一个上涨。微软将该产品的价格全面提高10%以上，该公司称这是“自十年前推出Office 365以来的首次实质性定价更新”，这也让分析师相信微软能够承受任何供应链压力PC市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to expect</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期待什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>分析师平均预计微软每股收益为2.08美元，高于一年前的每股1.82美元。Estimize是一个众包平台，收集华尔街分析师以及买方分析师、基金经理、公司高管、学者和其他人的预测，其贡献者预测每股收益为2.22美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue:</b> Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>分析师平均预测销售额为439.3亿美元，比一年前的371.5亿美元有所改善，此前微软预测营收为433亿美元至442亿美元。Estimize贡献者预计销售额为448.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计“智能云”部门的销售额为165.2亿美元，此前微软的预期为164亿至166.5亿美元；以云软件为重点的“生产力和业务解决方案”部门的销售额为146.7亿美元，此前预测为145亿至147.5亿美元；127.2亿美元来自“更多个人计算”，此前销售额指引为124亿至128亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&amp;P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>过去五个季度中有四个季度发布财报后，微软股价均出现下跌，但上一次跌幅仅为0.1%。该股在过去三个月上涨了8.1%，在过去一年上涨了45.2%，而标普500指数在此期间分别上涨了4.1%和31.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What analysts are saying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.</p><p><blockquote>分析师们对微软目前的立场相当一致。根据FactSet的跟踪，36名分析师中有33名分析师将该股评级为买入，而另外3名分析师将其评级为持有。</blockquote></p><p> \"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“微软目前的交易价格是我们23年GAAP每股收益预期的27倍，代表了软件领域强劲的长期定位和合理估值的罕见组合。”摩根士丹利分析师对跑赢大盘股票的评级为331美元。</blockquote></p><p> The once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.</p><p><blockquote>曾经的担忧似乎是当前增长轨迹的持久性，这就是为什么收购Nuance和提高Office 365的定价被视为该股继续上涨的关键。</blockquote></p><p> \"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"</p><p><blockquote>Jeffries分析师写道：“整个22财年，竞争将逐渐变得更加严峻，微软Azure/Security/Teams的持久增长投资组合应该可以满足这一需求。”他们给予跑赢大盘评级，最近将目标价从345美元上调至375美元。“值得关注的关键项目是期望提高（据报道Azure High 40）、与Nuance的集成以及安全投资的增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.</p><p><blockquote>微软从疫情中受益，因为公司依靠云计算能力和软件在远程工作时保持团队联系。但微软牛市和Wedbush分析师Daniel Ives并不认为重返办公室是繁荣将结束的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ives在报告预览中写道：“我们认为，华尔街对在家办公周期另一端云增长放缓的看法与微软在该领域看到的交易活动相反。”Ives给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为375美元。“虽然我们在过去几年中看到了这种背景的势头，但我们相信，进入2022财年，交易流看起来将逐渐强劲（尤其是Office 365/Azure组合交易），因为我们估计微软通过渗透其无与伦比的云过渡安装基础。”</blockquote></p><p> Stifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel分析师对此表示赞同，给予买入评级和325美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们仍然认为，疫情正在迫使组织加快云迁移的步伐，微软仍然是这种现代化支出的主要受益者，特别是在巨大的新政势头下，因为其广泛的堆栈使其能够捕获以前无法实现的一级工作负载，”他们写道。</blockquote></p><p> The average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.</p><p><blockquote>截至周五下午，微软股票的平均目标价为335.47美元，比现行汇率高出约8.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe PC slowdown shouldn't hurt Microsoft earnings, and here's why<blockquote>个人电脑放缓不应损害微软的盈利，原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-24 10:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain issues affecting PC sales</p><p><blockquote>Azure和其他云产品的增长应该会掩盖影响PC销售的供应链问题带来的任何失望</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/958e56d50bc03c5ef2195a2a879bec71\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft Corp. is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软定于周二盘后发布第一财季财报。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in personal computer sales due to supply-chain issues in recent months would have hurt Microsoft Corp. in past years, but the company's pivot to cloud computing and cloud software should insulate it from any earnings fallout.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，由于供应链问题导致的个人电脑销售放缓在过去几年可能会损害微软公司，但该公司转向云计算和云软件应该会使其免受任何盈利影响。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon, as it rolls out its new Windows 11 operating system and PC makers struggle to deliver new machines. While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.</p><p><blockquote>微软定于周二下午公布第一财季财报，该公司将推出新的Windows 11操作系统，而PC制造商正在努力交付新机器。如果个人电脑出货量受损且新操作系统没有迅速采用，Bill Gates和Steve Ballmer的微软将面临华尔街的大量悲观情绪，但Satya Nadella的微软应该会很好。</blockquote></p><p> That is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s&nbsp;Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为分析师和投资者主要关注Azure（微软对亚马逊公司Amazon Web Services的云计算解决方案）以及云软件产品，从而降低了微软PC业务的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> \"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"</p><p><blockquote>“持续的数字化转型势头应该会抵消IDC和Gartner对PC设备出货量的混合估计的影响，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师在报告的预览中写道，稍后补充道：“虽然我们对Windows OEM厂商的负增长前景给微软的长期收益预期带来压力，但我们也注意到，总体而言，Windows OEM厂商代表总体微软收入和毛利的组合不断下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Azure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google&nbsp;(GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).</p><p><blockquote>Azure已经确保Windows对微软的重要性已经下降。快速增长的云业务是所有有关微软的分析师报告的首要内容，分析师预计收入将增长40%左右。（尽管AWS和谷歌（GOOGL）云为其竞争服务提供了全部收入和营业利润，但微软没有披露Azure的性能，除了百分比增益）。</blockquote></p><p> \"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“从根本上说，之前签署的长期Azure协议的贡献不断增加、新冠疫情后持续的云迁移、微软对云垂直化的日益关注以及微软365席位的强劲增长可以维持Azure的长期持久增长。”</blockquote></p><p> There are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.</p><p><blockquote>还有一些因素也可能促进微软的增长，尤其是在预测中。对专注于医疗保健的公司Nuance的197亿美元收购预计将在今年年底前完成，微软最近透露，其基于云的收入将与Azure归入同一收入类别。</blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软没有透露这到底意味着什么，但瑞银分析师在9月份表示，Nuance之前的披露以及他们与该公司投资者关系团队的看涨期权使他们估计Nuance约46%的收入将来自云。他们估计，如果将整个季度包括在内，这意味着微软云部门在第二财季的销售额将增加约9100万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Another bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.</p><p><blockquote>微软最受欢迎的云软件产品Office 365的价格上涨可能会在未来带来另一个上涨。微软将该产品的价格全面提高10%以上，该公司称这是“自十年前推出Office 365以来的首次实质性定价更新”，这也让分析师相信微软能够承受任何供应链压力PC市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to expect</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期待什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>分析师平均预计微软每股收益为2.08美元，高于一年前的每股1.82美元。Estimize是一个众包平台，收集华尔街分析师以及买方分析师、基金经理、公司高管、学者和其他人的预测，其贡献者预测每股收益为2.22美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue:</b> Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>分析师平均预测销售额为439.3亿美元，比一年前的371.5亿美元有所改善，此前微软预测营收为433亿美元至442亿美元。Estimize贡献者预计销售额为448.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计“智能云”部门的销售额为165.2亿美元，此前微软的预期为164亿至166.5亿美元；以云软件为重点的“生产力和业务解决方案”部门的销售额为146.7亿美元，此前预测为145亿至147.5亿美元；127.2亿美元来自“更多个人计算”，此前销售额指引为124亿至128亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&amp;P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>过去五个季度中有四个季度发布财报后，微软股价均出现下跌，但上一次跌幅仅为0.1%。该股在过去三个月上涨了8.1%，在过去一年上涨了45.2%，而标普500指数在此期间分别上涨了4.1%和31.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What analysts are saying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.</p><p><blockquote>分析师们对微软目前的立场相当一致。根据FactSet的跟踪，36名分析师中有33名分析师将该股评级为买入，而另外3名分析师将其评级为持有。</blockquote></p><p> \"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“微软目前的交易价格是我们23年GAAP每股收益预期的27倍，代表了软件领域强劲的长期定位和合理估值的罕见组合。”摩根士丹利分析师对跑赢大盘股票的评级为331美元。</blockquote></p><p> The once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.</p><p><blockquote>曾经的担忧似乎是当前增长轨迹的持久性，这就是为什么收购Nuance和提高Office 365的定价被视为该股继续上涨的关键。</blockquote></p><p> \"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"</p><p><blockquote>Jeffries分析师写道：“整个22财年，竞争将逐渐变得更加严峻，微软Azure/Security/Teams的持久增长投资组合应该可以满足这一需求。”他们给予跑赢大盘评级，最近将目标价从345美元上调至375美元。“值得关注的关键项目是期望提高（据报道Azure High 40）、与Nuance的集成以及安全投资的增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.</p><p><blockquote>微软从疫情中受益，因为公司依靠云计算能力和软件在远程工作时保持团队联系。但微软牛市和Wedbush分析师Daniel Ives并不认为重返办公室是繁荣将结束的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ives在报告预览中写道：“我们认为，华尔街对在家办公周期另一端云增长放缓的看法与微软在该领域看到的交易活动相反。”Ives给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为375美元。“虽然我们在过去几年中看到了这种背景的势头，但我们相信，进入2022财年，交易流看起来将逐渐强劲（尤其是Office 365/Azure组合交易），因为我们估计微软通过渗透其无与伦比的云过渡安装基础。”</blockquote></p><p> Stifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel分析师对此表示赞同，给予买入评级和325美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们仍然认为，疫情正在迫使组织加快云迁移的步伐，微软仍然是这种现代化支出的主要受益者，特别是在巨大的新政势头下，因为其广泛的堆栈使其能够捕获以前无法实现的一级工作负载，”他们写道。</blockquote></p><p> The average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.</p><p><blockquote>截至周五下午，微软股票的平均目标价为335.47美元，比现行汇率高出约8.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pc-slowdown-shouldnt-hurt-microsoft-earnings-and-heres-why-11635003215?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pc-slowdown-shouldnt-hurt-microsoft-earnings-and-heres-why-11635003215?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2177489964","content_text":"Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain issues affecting PC sales\nMicrosoft Corp. is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.\nThe slowdown in personal computer sales due to supply-chain issues in recent months would have hurt Microsoft Corp. in past years, but the company's pivot to cloud computing and cloud software should insulate it from any earnings fallout.\nMicrosoft is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon, as it rolls out its new Windows 11 operating system and PC makers struggle to deliver new machines. While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.\nThat is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.\n\"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"\nAzure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google (GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).\n\"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.\nThere are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.\nWhile Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.\nAnother bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.\nWhat to expect\nEarnings: Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.\nRevenue: Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.\nAnalyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.\nStock movement: Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.\nWhat analysts are saying\nAnalysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.\n\"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.\nThe once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.\n\"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"\nMicrosoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.\n\"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"\nStifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.\n\"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.\nThe average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853859056,"gmtCreate":1634791249012,"gmtModify":1634791249244,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853859056","repostId":"1132338087","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132338087","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634787362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132338087?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 11:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s earnings show is more cautious — and yes, boring — without Elon around<blockquote>没有埃隆在场，特斯拉的财报更加谨慎——是的，也很无聊——</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132338087","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Tesla Inc. was more cautious Wednesday in both its shareholder letter and its conference call, its f","content":"<p>Tesla Inc. was more cautious Wednesday in both its shareholder letter and its conference call, its first since Chief Executive Elon Musk bowed out of the quarterly earnings show, and it may have cost the stock.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周三在股东信和电话会议中都表现得更加谨慎，这是自首席执行官Elon Musk退出季度财报以来的首次，这可能导致该股损失。</blockquote></p><p> The electric-vehicle maker reported record third-quarter earnings and revenue Wednesday, but shares still declined 1.6% in after-hours trading. Tesla disclosed that chip shortages, port congestion and other supply-chain issues were hurting its ability to make as many cars as it could sell, and toned down its forecasts language. Tesla’s revenue of $13.8 billion came in a bit shy of analysts’ estimates of $14 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车制造商周三公布了创纪录的第三季度盈利和收入，但盘后交易中股价仍下跌1.6%。特斯拉透露，芯片短缺、港口拥堵和其他供应链问题正在损害其尽可能多地生产汽车的能力，并淡化了预测语言。特斯拉138亿美元的营收略低于分析师预期的140亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also removed a clause that had led investors to believe 2021 would be an outlier growth year, when it stated previously: “In some years it may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还删除了一项导致投资者认为2021年将是异常增长的一年的条款，该公司此前曾表示：“在某些年份，它可能会增长更快，我们预计2021年的情况就是如此。”</blockquote></p><p> “It’s important to note while we have roughly doubled deliveries year to date, this has been exceptionally difficult to achieve,” said Tesla&nbsp;Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn, who took over as the main executive in Tesla’s earnings call after Musk bowed out last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席财务官扎卡里·柯克霍恩(Zachary Kirkhorn)表示：“值得注意的是，虽然今年迄今为止我们的交付量大约翻了一番，但这非常难以实现。”上个季度马斯克退出后，他接任了特斯拉盈利看涨期权的主要高管。</blockquote></p><p> When asked by investors what the company’s goal was for production capacity, Kirkhorn said Tesla seeks to increase growth by 50%, but wisely couched that goal in a way that Musk rarely does.</p><p><blockquote>当被投资者问及公司的产能目标是什么时，柯克霍恩表示，特斯拉寻求将增长提高50%，但明智地以马斯克很少这样做的方式表达了这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> “There may be some periods of time which we’re ahead of that. There could be some periods of time despite our best efforts where we’re slightly lower than that,” he said. “But that remains the long-term goal of the company.”</p><p><blockquote>“可能会有一些时期我们领先于此。尽管我们尽了最大努力，但也可能会有一些时期略低于此水平，”他说。“但这仍然是公司的长期目标。”</blockquote></p><p> Gone from the quarterly call were the often outlandish predictions by Musk, such as his infamous prediction for 1 million Teslas as self-driving robotaxis in 2020 and his forecasts for production targets that were frequently missed.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克经常古怪的预测从季度看涨期权中消失了，例如他臭名昭著的2020年将有100万辆特斯拉作为自动驾驶机器人出租车的预测，以及他对经常被错过的生产目标的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, the more staid call, with what seemed like a few more questions from Wall Street analysts, included more discussion of operating margins, but it also included comments on some small changes to the CyberTruck, and a statement that Tesla is looking to launch it late next year. When asked about the increased regulatory scrutiny of “Full Self-Driving” mode, Kirkhorn said there are regulatory inquiries all the time, and followed up with some bland corporate speak: “We expect and embrace the scrutiny of the products and know the truth about their performance and innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters.”</p><p><blockquote>相反，华尔街分析师似乎又问了几个问题，其中包括更多关于营业利润率的讨论，但也包括对CyberTruck的一些小变化的评论，以及特斯拉正在寻求推出的声明明年年底。当被问及监管机构对“全自动驾驶”模式加强审查时，柯克霍恩表示，监管机构一直在询问，并随后发表了一些平淡的企业言论：“我们期待并接受对产品的审查，并了解真相关于我们产品的性能和创新最终将是最重要的。”</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also did not give specific revenue guidance for this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也没有给出今年具体的营收指引。</blockquote></p><p> Investors seemed to be disappointed with the company’s manufacturing constraints or the more staid nature of the comments. In after-hours trading, shares of Tesla slipped about $14, or nearly 2%, as the call continued on. While they are likely better off without the often fantastic pronouncements and over-promising comments by the controversial Musk, investors definitely felt his absence today.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎对该公司的制造限制或评论更古板的性质感到失望。在盘后交易中，随着看涨期权的持续，特斯拉股价下跌约14美元，跌幅近2%。虽然如果没有备受争议的马斯克经常发表精彩的声明和过度承诺的评论，他们的情况可能会更好，但投资者今天肯定感受到了他的缺席。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s earnings show is more cautious — and yes, boring — without Elon around<blockquote>没有埃隆在场，特斯拉的财报更加谨慎——是的，也很无聊——</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s earnings show is more cautious — and yes, boring — without Elon around<blockquote>没有埃隆在场，特斯拉的财报更加谨慎——是的，也很无聊——</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-21 11:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla Inc. was more cautious Wednesday in both its shareholder letter and its conference call, its first since Chief Executive Elon Musk bowed out of the quarterly earnings show, and it may have cost the stock.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周三在股东信和电话会议中都表现得更加谨慎，这是自首席执行官Elon Musk退出季度财报以来的首次，这可能导致该股损失。</blockquote></p><p> The electric-vehicle maker reported record third-quarter earnings and revenue Wednesday, but shares still declined 1.6% in after-hours trading. Tesla disclosed that chip shortages, port congestion and other supply-chain issues were hurting its ability to make as many cars as it could sell, and toned down its forecasts language. Tesla’s revenue of $13.8 billion came in a bit shy of analysts’ estimates of $14 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车制造商周三公布了创纪录的第三季度盈利和收入，但盘后交易中股价仍下跌1.6%。特斯拉透露，芯片短缺、港口拥堵和其他供应链问题正在损害其尽可能多地生产汽车的能力，并淡化了预测语言。特斯拉138亿美元的营收略低于分析师预期的140亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also removed a clause that had led investors to believe 2021 would be an outlier growth year, when it stated previously: “In some years it may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还删除了一项导致投资者认为2021年将是异常增长的一年的条款，该公司此前曾表示：“在某些年份，它可能会增长更快，我们预计2021年的情况就是如此。”</blockquote></p><p> “It’s important to note while we have roughly doubled deliveries year to date, this has been exceptionally difficult to achieve,” said Tesla&nbsp;Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn, who took over as the main executive in Tesla’s earnings call after Musk bowed out last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席财务官扎卡里·柯克霍恩(Zachary Kirkhorn)表示：“值得注意的是，虽然今年迄今为止我们的交付量大约翻了一番，但这非常难以实现。”上个季度马斯克退出后，他接任了特斯拉盈利看涨期权的主要高管。</blockquote></p><p> When asked by investors what the company’s goal was for production capacity, Kirkhorn said Tesla seeks to increase growth by 50%, but wisely couched that goal in a way that Musk rarely does.</p><p><blockquote>当被投资者问及公司的产能目标是什么时，柯克霍恩表示，特斯拉寻求将增长提高50%，但明智地以马斯克很少这样做的方式表达了这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> “There may be some periods of time which we’re ahead of that. There could be some periods of time despite our best efforts where we’re slightly lower than that,” he said. “But that remains the long-term goal of the company.”</p><p><blockquote>“可能会有一些时期我们领先于此。尽管我们尽了最大努力，但也可能会有一些时期略低于此水平，”他说。“但这仍然是公司的长期目标。”</blockquote></p><p> Gone from the quarterly call were the often outlandish predictions by Musk, such as his infamous prediction for 1 million Teslas as self-driving robotaxis in 2020 and his forecasts for production targets that were frequently missed.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克经常古怪的预测从季度看涨期权中消失了，例如他臭名昭著的2020年将有100万辆特斯拉作为自动驾驶机器人出租车的预测，以及他对经常被错过的生产目标的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, the more staid call, with what seemed like a few more questions from Wall Street analysts, included more discussion of operating margins, but it also included comments on some small changes to the CyberTruck, and a statement that Tesla is looking to launch it late next year. When asked about the increased regulatory scrutiny of “Full Self-Driving” mode, Kirkhorn said there are regulatory inquiries all the time, and followed up with some bland corporate speak: “We expect and embrace the scrutiny of the products and know the truth about their performance and innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters.”</p><p><blockquote>相反，华尔街分析师似乎又问了几个问题，其中包括更多关于营业利润率的讨论，但也包括对CyberTruck的一些小变化的评论，以及特斯拉正在寻求推出的声明明年年底。当被问及监管机构对“全自动驾驶”模式加强审查时，柯克霍恩表示，监管机构一直在询问，并随后发表了一些平淡的企业言论：“我们期待并接受对产品的审查，并了解真相关于我们产品的性能和创新最终将是最重要的。”</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also did not give specific revenue guidance for this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也没有给出今年具体的营收指引。</blockquote></p><p> Investors seemed to be disappointed with the company’s manufacturing constraints or the more staid nature of the comments. In after-hours trading, shares of Tesla slipped about $14, or nearly 2%, as the call continued on. While they are likely better off without the often fantastic pronouncements and over-promising comments by the controversial Musk, investors definitely felt his absence today.</p><p><blockquote>投资者似乎对该公司的制造限制或评论更古板的性质感到失望。在盘后交易中，随着看涨期权的持续，特斯拉股价下跌约14美元，跌幅近2%。虽然如果没有备受争议的马斯克经常发表精彩的声明和过度承诺的评论，他们的情况可能会更好，但投资者今天肯定感受到了他的缺席。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-earnings-show-is-more-cautious-and-yes-boring-without-elon-around-11634779650?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-earnings-show-is-more-cautious-and-yes-boring-without-elon-around-11634779650?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132338087","content_text":"Tesla Inc. was more cautious Wednesday in both its shareholder letter and its conference call, its first since Chief Executive Elon Musk bowed out of the quarterly earnings show, and it may have cost the stock.\nThe electric-vehicle maker reported record third-quarter earnings and revenue Wednesday, but shares still declined 1.6% in after-hours trading. Tesla disclosed that chip shortages, port congestion and other supply-chain issues were hurting its ability to make as many cars as it could sell, and toned down its forecasts language. Tesla’s revenue of $13.8 billion came in a bit shy of analysts’ estimates of $14 billion.\nTesla also removed a clause that had led investors to believe 2021 would be an outlier growth year, when it stated previously: “In some years it may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021.”\n“It’s important to note while we have roughly doubled deliveries year to date, this has been exceptionally difficult to achieve,” said Tesla Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn, who took over as the main executive in Tesla’s earnings call after Musk bowed out last quarter.\nWhen asked by investors what the company’s goal was for production capacity, Kirkhorn said Tesla seeks to increase growth by 50%, but wisely couched that goal in a way that Musk rarely does.\n“There may be some periods of time which we’re ahead of that. There could be some periods of time despite our best efforts where we’re slightly lower than that,” he said. “But that remains the long-term goal of the company.”\nGone from the quarterly call were the often outlandish predictions by Musk, such as his infamous prediction for 1 million Teslas as self-driving robotaxis in 2020 and his forecasts for production targets that were frequently missed.\nInstead, the more staid call, with what seemed like a few more questions from Wall Street analysts, included more discussion of operating margins, but it also included comments on some small changes to the CyberTruck, and a statement that Tesla is looking to launch it late next year. When asked about the increased regulatory scrutiny of “Full Self-Driving” mode, Kirkhorn said there are regulatory inquiries all the time, and followed up with some bland corporate speak: “We expect and embrace the scrutiny of the products and know the truth about their performance and innovations our products have will ultimately be all that matters.”\nTesla also did not give specific revenue guidance for this year.\nInvestors seemed to be disappointed with the company’s manufacturing constraints or the more staid nature of the comments. In after-hours trading, shares of Tesla slipped about $14, or nearly 2%, as the call continued on. While they are likely better off without the often fantastic pronouncements and over-promising comments by the controversial Musk, investors definitely felt his absence today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827258382,"gmtCreate":1634483961170,"gmtModify":1634483961404,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827258382","repostId":"1132582737","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132582737","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634311475,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132582737?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通看好亚马逊股票：29%的上涨潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132582737","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&","content":"<p>Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&amp;P 500 since its disappointing Q2 earnings day. But JPMorgan is optimistic and sees upside ahead.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股票已成为其自身成功的受害者：自令人失望的第二季度财报日以来，这家电子商务巨头的股价一直落后于标普500。但摩根大通持乐观态度，并看到了未来的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Since the release of Amazon’s most recent earnings report, investors have watched shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant tank by 11%. Amazon stock&nbsp;underperformed an already weak S&amp;P 500 by three percentage points over the period, leaving some to question: is AMZN still a good investment?</p><p><blockquote>自亚马逊最新财报发布以来，投资者关注这家云和电子商务巨头的股价下跌了11%。在此期间，亚马逊股票的表现落后于本已疲软的标普500三个百分点，这让一些人质疑：亚马逊仍然是一项好的投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> According to experts at JPMorgan (JPM), the answer is yes. Today, the Amazon Maven presents the main reasons why five-star&nbsp;rated&nbsp;analyst Doug Anmuth believes that Amazon stock is about to surge, producing an estimated 29% in gains through 2022.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通（JPM）专家表示，答案是肯定的。今天，亚马逊专家介绍了五星级分析师Doug Anmuth认为亚马逊股票即将飙升的主要原因，预计到2022年将上涨29%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8e5f4ca5aa3dba7bef61858521bd17\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: J.P. Morgan offices in Hong Kong.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：摩根大通香港办事处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Getting back on track</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回到正轨</b></blockquote></p><p> As the&nbsp;Amazon Maven mentioned&nbsp;recently, the impact of the pandemic on shopping habits led analysts to overestimate Amazon’s revenues for the current year. This is the very first reason why JPMorgan&nbsp;believes&nbsp;that AMZN will get a green light to climb again: “[the stock is heading] closer to the last quarter of difficult COVID-19 comps in the first quarter of 2022\", which should help to reset sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>正如亚马逊专家最近提到的，疫情对购物习惯的影响导致分析师高估了亚马逊今年的收入。这就是摩根大通认为AMZN将获得再次攀升的第一个原因：“[该股正在]接近2022年第一季度困难的COVID-19比较的最后一个季度”，这应该有助于重置情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Once 2020 results are left in the rearview mirror, the e-commerce company will face more realistic, non-pandemic-inflated projections. As mentioned by Mr. Anmuth himself, \"further downward revisions to 2022 profit estimates would help lower the bar and potentially create more of a clearing event”.</p><p><blockquote>一旦2020年的业绩成为过去，这家电子商务公司将面临更现实、非疫情夸大的预测。正如Anmuth先生本人所提到的，“进一步下调2022年利润预期将有助于降低门槛，并可能引发更多清算事件”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Holiday upside</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假日上行空间</b></blockquote></p><p> Another reason why Mr. Anmuth believes Amazon stock will head higher is the beginning of the holiday season. Since the market has been so cautious towards AMZN lately, the stock has been trading at lower multiples than would otherwise be considered reasonable. The holidays, on the other hand, could be the bullish catalyst that investors need to own the stock again.</p><p><blockquote>安穆斯认为亚马逊股价将走高的另一个原因是假期的开始。由于市场最近对亚马逊非常谨慎，该股的市盈率一直低于合理的市盈率。另一方面，假期可能是投资者需要再次持有该股的看涨催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, there is the potential for an increase in Prime subscription price in 2022. Considering an estimated 150 million US Prime members in 2021, a $20 dollar hike in annual fee would lead to an extra $3 billion heading towards Amazon’s coffers.</p><p><blockquote>最后，2022年Prime订阅价格有可能上涨。考虑到2021年估计有1.5亿美国Prime会员，年费上涨20美元将导致亚马逊的金库额外增加30亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first glance, the figure may not seem like much, given Amazon’s revenues of $380 billion in 2020. However, keep in mind that nearly all the price increase would flow cleanly into Amazon’s operating income. On a 2020 basis, this would represent growth of nearly 15% in pre-tax profits.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，考虑到亚马逊2020年的收入为3800亿美元，这个数字似乎并不多。然而，请记住，几乎所有的价格上涨都会干净地流入亚马逊的营业收入。以2020年为基础，这将意味着税前利润增长近15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What do other experts say?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他专家怎么说？</b></blockquote></p><p> Other reports published recently also support the bullish thesis. Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI&nbsp;talked&nbsp;to 15 industry experts, including former Amazon employees, during the research firm’s Amazon Day Symposium. The analyst liked what he saw and issued a hefty $4,700 target price.</p><p><blockquote>最近发表的其他报告也支持看涨论点。Evercore ISI的Mark Mahaney在该研究公司的亚马逊日研讨会上与15名行业专家进行了交谈，其中包括前亚马逊员工。这位分析师很喜欢他所看到的，并给出了4,700美元的高额目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Wolfe Research’s Deepak Mathivanan, on the other hand,lowered&nbsp;his price target on AMZN modestly to $3,850 from $3,900, despite maintaining an outperform rating. Sitting closer to the consensus price target is Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan, who is bullish and&nbsp;believes&nbsp;that AMZN shares are worth $4,250.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，Wolfe Research的Deepak Mathivanan将AMZN的目标价从3,900美元小幅下调至3,850美元，尽管维持跑赢大盘评级。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的埃里克·谢里丹(Eric Sheridan)更接近共识目标价，他看好AMZN股票价值4,250美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通看好亚马逊股票：29%的上涨潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通看好亚马逊股票：29%的上涨潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-15 23:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&amp;P 500 since its disappointing Q2 earnings day. But JPMorgan is optimistic and sees upside ahead.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股票已成为其自身成功的受害者：自令人失望的第二季度财报日以来，这家电子商务巨头的股价一直落后于标普500。但摩根大通持乐观态度，并看到了未来的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Since the release of Amazon’s most recent earnings report, investors have watched shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant tank by 11%. Amazon stock&nbsp;underperformed an already weak S&amp;P 500 by three percentage points over the period, leaving some to question: is AMZN still a good investment?</p><p><blockquote>自亚马逊最新财报发布以来，投资者关注这家云和电子商务巨头的股价下跌了11%。在此期间，亚马逊股票的表现落后于本已疲软的标普500三个百分点，这让一些人质疑：亚马逊仍然是一项好的投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> According to experts at JPMorgan (JPM), the answer is yes. Today, the Amazon Maven presents the main reasons why five-star&nbsp;rated&nbsp;analyst Doug Anmuth believes that Amazon stock is about to surge, producing an estimated 29% in gains through 2022.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通（JPM）专家表示，答案是肯定的。今天，亚马逊专家介绍了五星级分析师Doug Anmuth认为亚马逊股票即将飙升的主要原因，预计到2022年将上涨29%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8e5f4ca5aa3dba7bef61858521bd17\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: J.P. Morgan offices in Hong Kong.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：摩根大通香港办事处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Getting back on track</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回到正轨</b></blockquote></p><p> As the&nbsp;Amazon Maven mentioned&nbsp;recently, the impact of the pandemic on shopping habits led analysts to overestimate Amazon’s revenues for the current year. This is the very first reason why JPMorgan&nbsp;believes&nbsp;that AMZN will get a green light to climb again: “[the stock is heading] closer to the last quarter of difficult COVID-19 comps in the first quarter of 2022\", which should help to reset sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>正如亚马逊专家最近提到的，疫情对购物习惯的影响导致分析师高估了亚马逊今年的收入。这就是摩根大通认为AMZN将获得再次攀升的第一个原因：“[该股正在]接近2022年第一季度困难的COVID-19比较的最后一个季度”，这应该有助于重置情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Once 2020 results are left in the rearview mirror, the e-commerce company will face more realistic, non-pandemic-inflated projections. As mentioned by Mr. Anmuth himself, \"further downward revisions to 2022 profit estimates would help lower the bar and potentially create more of a clearing event”.</p><p><blockquote>一旦2020年的业绩成为过去，这家电子商务公司将面临更现实、非疫情夸大的预测。正如Anmuth先生本人所提到的，“进一步下调2022年利润预期将有助于降低门槛，并可能引发更多清算事件”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Holiday upside</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假日上行空间</b></blockquote></p><p> Another reason why Mr. Anmuth believes Amazon stock will head higher is the beginning of the holiday season. Since the market has been so cautious towards AMZN lately, the stock has been trading at lower multiples than would otherwise be considered reasonable. The holidays, on the other hand, could be the bullish catalyst that investors need to own the stock again.</p><p><blockquote>安穆斯认为亚马逊股价将走高的另一个原因是假期的开始。由于市场最近对亚马逊非常谨慎，该股的市盈率一直低于合理的市盈率。另一方面，假期可能是投资者需要再次持有该股的看涨催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, there is the potential for an increase in Prime subscription price in 2022. Considering an estimated 150 million US Prime members in 2021, a $20 dollar hike in annual fee would lead to an extra $3 billion heading towards Amazon’s coffers.</p><p><blockquote>最后，2022年Prime订阅价格有可能上涨。考虑到2021年估计有1.5亿美国Prime会员，年费上涨20美元将导致亚马逊的金库额外增加30亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first glance, the figure may not seem like much, given Amazon’s revenues of $380 billion in 2020. However, keep in mind that nearly all the price increase would flow cleanly into Amazon’s operating income. On a 2020 basis, this would represent growth of nearly 15% in pre-tax profits.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，考虑到亚马逊2020年的收入为3800亿美元，这个数字似乎并不多。然而，请记住，几乎所有的价格上涨都会干净地流入亚马逊的营业收入。以2020年为基础，这将意味着税前利润增长近15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What do other experts say?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他专家怎么说？</b></blockquote></p><p> Other reports published recently also support the bullish thesis. Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI&nbsp;talked&nbsp;to 15 industry experts, including former Amazon employees, during the research firm’s Amazon Day Symposium. The analyst liked what he saw and issued a hefty $4,700 target price.</p><p><blockquote>最近发表的其他报告也支持看涨论点。Evercore ISI的Mark Mahaney在该研究公司的亚马逊日研讨会上与15名行业专家进行了交谈，其中包括前亚马逊员工。这位分析师很喜欢他所看到的，并给出了4,700美元的高额目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Wolfe Research’s Deepak Mathivanan, on the other hand,lowered&nbsp;his price target on AMZN modestly to $3,850 from $3,900, despite maintaining an outperform rating. Sitting closer to the consensus price target is Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan, who is bullish and&nbsp;believes&nbsp;that AMZN shares are worth $4,250.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，Wolfe Research的Deepak Mathivanan将AMZN的目标价从3,900美元小幅下调至3,850美元，尽管维持跑赢大盘评级。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的埃里克·谢里丹(Eric Sheridan)更接近共识目标价，他看好AMZN股票价值4,250美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/jpmorgan-on-amazon-stock-29-upside-potential\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/jpmorgan-on-amazon-stock-29-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132582737","content_text":"Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&P 500 since its disappointing Q2 earnings day. But JPMorgan is optimistic and sees upside ahead.\nSince the release of Amazon’s most recent earnings report, investors have watched shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant tank by 11%. Amazon stock underperformed an already weak S&P 500 by three percentage points over the period, leaving some to question: is AMZN still a good investment?\nAccording to experts at JPMorgan (JPM), the answer is yes. Today, the Amazon Maven presents the main reasons why five-star rated analyst Doug Anmuth believes that Amazon stock is about to surge, producing an estimated 29% in gains through 2022.\nFigure 1: J.P. Morgan offices in Hong Kong.\nGetting back on track\nAs the Amazon Maven mentioned recently, the impact of the pandemic on shopping habits led analysts to overestimate Amazon’s revenues for the current year. This is the very first reason why JPMorgan believes that AMZN will get a green light to climb again: “[the stock is heading] closer to the last quarter of difficult COVID-19 comps in the first quarter of 2022\", which should help to reset sentiment.\nOnce 2020 results are left in the rearview mirror, the e-commerce company will face more realistic, non-pandemic-inflated projections. As mentioned by Mr. Anmuth himself, \"further downward revisions to 2022 profit estimates would help lower the bar and potentially create more of a clearing event”.\nHoliday upside\nAnother reason why Mr. Anmuth believes Amazon stock will head higher is the beginning of the holiday season. Since the market has been so cautious towards AMZN lately, the stock has been trading at lower multiples than would otherwise be considered reasonable. The holidays, on the other hand, could be the bullish catalyst that investors need to own the stock again.\nLastly, there is the potential for an increase in Prime subscription price in 2022. Considering an estimated 150 million US Prime members in 2021, a $20 dollar hike in annual fee would lead to an extra $3 billion heading towards Amazon’s coffers.\nAt first glance, the figure may not seem like much, given Amazon’s revenues of $380 billion in 2020. However, keep in mind that nearly all the price increase would flow cleanly into Amazon’s operating income. On a 2020 basis, this would represent growth of nearly 15% in pre-tax profits.\nWhat do other experts say?\nOther reports published recently also support the bullish thesis. Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI talked to 15 industry experts, including former Amazon employees, during the research firm’s Amazon Day Symposium. The analyst liked what he saw and issued a hefty $4,700 target price.\nWolfe Research’s Deepak Mathivanan, on the other hand,lowered his price target on AMZN modestly to $3,850 from $3,900, despite maintaining an outperform rating. Sitting closer to the consensus price target is Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan, who is bullish and believes that AMZN shares are worth $4,250.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828846644,"gmtCreate":1633905925330,"gmtModify":1633905925436,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828846644","repostId":"1115058296","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115058296","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633787569,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115058296?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 21:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115058296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might","content":"<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 21:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","GOOGL":"谷歌A","CRM":"赛富时","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115058296","content_text":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.\nTo be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.\nHistory isn't the market's friend in the near term\nAt the moment, there are no shortage of tail winds for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.\nFor instance, the widely followed S&P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"\nHistory is no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.\nEven the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's not normal for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.\nThe table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&P 500.\nA crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks\nWhile big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.\nFor example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.\nShould this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nBerkshire Hathaway\nFew stocks have generated more surefire returns for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.\nThough there is a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.\nAnother reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.\nLong story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.\nSalesforce\nAnother surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).\nFor those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.\nCloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share Oracle,SAP,Microsoft, and Adobe possessed last year on a combined basis.  A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.\nWhat's more, CEO Marc Benioff has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.\nAlphabet\nA third surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises is Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.\nWhen it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a 91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.\nWhat might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.\nMeanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's absolutely no reason for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"CRM":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821444715,"gmtCreate":1633780986197,"gmtModify":1633780986262,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821444715","repostId":"1167388174","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821334624,"gmtCreate":1633697370690,"gmtModify":1633697370873,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821334624","repostId":"1120277097","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120277097","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633696257,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120277097?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. economy adds 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecast<blockquote>美国9月经济新增就业岗位19.4万个，远低于预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120277097","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Oct 8) The U.S. economy created jobs at a much slower pace than expected pace in September, a pessi","content":"<p>(Oct 8)&nbsp;The U.S. economy created jobs at a much slower pace than expected pace in September, a pessimistic sign at a time of concerns over the path of the pandemic, stubbornly high inflation and dysfunction in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>（10月8日）美国经济9月份创造就业机会的速度远低于预期，这是一个悲观的迹象，因为人们对疫情的发展轨迹、居高不下的通胀和华盛顿的功能障碍感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 194,000 in the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 500,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, against the expectation for 5.1%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，本月非农就业人数仅增加19.4万人，而道琼斯估计为50万人。失业率降至4.8%，低于预期的5.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The headline number was hurt by a 123,000 decline in government payrolls, while private payrolls increased by 317,000.</p><p><blockquote>总体数字受到政府就业人数减少123,000人的影响，而私人就业人数增加了317,000人。</blockquote></p><p> Dow trades virtually unchanged at 34,645,Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>道指基本持平于34,645点，纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.2%</blockquote></p><p> Gold prices pop after September jobs report, December gold up 0.4% at $1,769.20/oz.</p><p><blockquote>9月就业报告公布后，金价上涨，12月金价上涨0.4%，至1769.20美元/盎司。</blockquote></p><p> August job gains raised to 366,000 from 235,000;&nbsp;July job gains revised up to 1.09 from 1.05 million</p><p><blockquote>8月份就业人数从23.5万人上调至36.6万人；7月份就业人数从105万人上调至109万人</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan Chase stock down 0.1% premarket after jobs data.</p><p><blockquote>就业数据公布后，摩根大通股价盘前下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. economy adds 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecast<blockquote>美国9月经济新增就业岗位19.4万个，远低于预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. economy adds 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecast<blockquote>美国9月经济新增就业岗位19.4万个，远低于预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-08 20:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Oct 8)&nbsp;The U.S. economy created jobs at a much slower pace than expected pace in September, a pessimistic sign at a time of concerns over the path of the pandemic, stubbornly high inflation and dysfunction in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>（10月8日）美国经济9月份创造就业机会的速度远低于预期，这是一个悲观的迹象，因为人们对疫情的发展轨迹、居高不下的通胀和华盛顿的功能障碍感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 194,000 in the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 500,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, against the expectation for 5.1%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，本月非农就业人数仅增加19.4万人，而道琼斯估计为50万人。失业率降至4.8%，低于预期的5.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The headline number was hurt by a 123,000 decline in government payrolls, while private payrolls increased by 317,000.</p><p><blockquote>总体数字受到政府就业人数减少123,000人的影响，而私人就业人数增加了317,000人。</blockquote></p><p> Dow trades virtually unchanged at 34,645,Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.2%</p><p><blockquote>道指基本持平于34,645点，纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.2%</blockquote></p><p> Gold prices pop after September jobs report, December gold up 0.4% at $1,769.20/oz.</p><p><blockquote>9月就业报告公布后，金价上涨，12月金价上涨0.4%，至1769.20美元/盎司。</blockquote></p><p> August job gains raised to 366,000 from 235,000;&nbsp;July job gains revised up to 1.09 from 1.05 million</p><p><blockquote>8月份就业人数从23.5万人上调至36.6万人；7月份就业人数从105万人上调至109万人</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan Chase stock down 0.1% premarket after jobs data.</p><p><blockquote>就业数据公布后，摩根大通股价盘前下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120277097","content_text":"(Oct 8) The U.S. economy created jobs at a much slower pace than expected pace in September, a pessimistic sign at a time of concerns over the path of the pandemic, stubbornly high inflation and dysfunction in Washington.\nNonfarm payrolls rose by just 194,000 in the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 500,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, against the expectation for 5.1%.\nThe headline number was hurt by a 123,000 decline in government payrolls, while private payrolls increased by 317,000.\nDow trades virtually unchanged at 34,645,Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.2%\nGold prices pop after September jobs report, December gold up 0.4% at $1,769.20/oz.\nAugust job gains raised to 366,000 from 235,000; July job gains revised up to 1.09 from 1.05 million\nJ.P. Morgan Chase stock down 0.1% premarket after jobs data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864710726,"gmtCreate":1633147519584,"gmtModify":1633147519769,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864710726","repostId":"2172631966","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862724421,"gmtCreate":1632917419638,"gmtModify":1632917419825,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862724421","repostId":"1115433115","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868430037,"gmtCreate":1632697680029,"gmtModify":1632798583280,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868430037","repostId":"1107241271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107241271","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632642043,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107241271?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 15:40","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Why Bitcoin, Ethereum And Dogecoin Could Be In For A Bumpy Road Ahead<blockquote>为什么比特币、以太币和狗狗币的前路可能会坎坷</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107241271","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Thousands of traders just like you are earning second income stream trading options! Click Here See ","content":"<p><div> Thousands of traders just like you are earning second income stream trading options! Click Here See How! Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) have developed inside...</p><p><blockquote><div>成千上万像你一样的交易者正在赚取第二收入流交易期权！点击这里看看怎么做！比特币（加密货币：BTC）、狗狗币（加密货币：DOGE）和以太币（加密货币：ETH）已经在内部发展...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Bitcoin, Ethereum And Dogecoin Could Be In For A Bumpy Road Ahead<blockquote>为什么比特币、以太币和狗狗币的前路可能会坎坷</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Bitcoin, Ethereum And Dogecoin Could Be In For A Bumpy Road Ahead<blockquote>为什么比特币、以太币和狗狗币的前路可能会坎坷</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-26 15:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Thousands of traders just like you are earning second income stream trading options! Click Here See How! Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) have developed inside...</p><p><blockquote><div>成千上万像你一样的交易者正在赚取第二收入流交易期权！点击这里看看怎么做！比特币（加密货币：BTC）、狗狗币（加密货币：DOGE）和以太币（加密货币：ETH）已经在内部发展...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/09/23101760/why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-dogecoin-could-be-in-for-a-bumpy-road-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107241271","content_text":"Thousands of traders just like you are earning second income stream trading options! Click Here See How!\nBitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) have developed inside bar patterns on the daily chart. An inside bar pattern indicates a period of consolidation and is usually followed by a continuation move in the direction of the current trend.\nAn inside bar pattern has more validity on larger time frames (four-hour chart or larger). The pattern has a minimum of two candlesticks and consists of a mother bar (the first candlestick in the pattern) followed by one or more subsequent candles. The subsequent candle(s) must be completely inside the range of the mother bar and each is called an \"inside bar.\"\nA double, or triple inside bar can be more powerful than a single inside bar. After the break of an inside bar pattern, traders want to watch for high volume as confirmation the pattern was recognized.\nBullish traders will want to search for inside bar patterns on stocks that are in an uptrend. Some traders may take a position during the inside bar prior to the break while other aggressive traders will take a position after the break of the pattern.\nFor bearish traders, finding an inside bar pattern on a stock that's in a downtrend will be key. Like bullish traders, bears have two options of where to take a position to play the break of the pattern. For bearish traders, the pattern is invalidated if the stock rises above the highest range of the mother candle.\nThe Bitcoin Chart: Bitcoin was printing an inside bar on the daily chart just above a support level at $42,223. The crypto is trading in a short uptrend within a larger downtrend. Bitcoin will have to make a higher high above the $55,200 level for confirmation the downtrend is over.\nThe Dogecoin Chart:Dogecoin is trading in a steep downtrend but holding above a key support level of $0.197. The crypto's inside bar on Saturday demonstrates consolidation. If Dogecoin loses support at its key level it could fall toward the 16-cent mark.\nThe Ethereum Chart:Like Bitcoin, Ethereum may be working to reverse course into an uptrend but will need to shoot up above Thursday's high of $3182 for confirmation. Otherwise, the crypto could continue lower in its larger downtrend following Saturday's inside bar.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868911172,"gmtCreate":1632572595596,"gmtModify":1632656316042,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868911172","repostId":"1117076176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863723715,"gmtCreate":1632438117337,"gmtModify":1632727230002,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863723715","repostId":"2169664162","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863767761,"gmtCreate":1632437927253,"gmtModify":1632727302028,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863767761","repostId":"1181941187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181941187","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632410993,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181941187?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-23 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Remitly Global opens for trading at $53, up about 23% from IPO price<blockquote>Remitly Global开盘价为53美元，较IPO价格上涨约23%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181941187","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 23) Remitly Global, Inc. opens for trading at $53, up about 23% from IPO price.\nCompany & Tech","content":"<p>(Sept 23)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RELY\">Remitly Global, Inc.</a> opens for trading at $53, up about 23% from IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>（9月23日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RELY\">汇款全球公司。</a>开盘价为53美元，较IPO价格上涨约23%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4f9fae02046c2dec20410744605a2c\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Company &amp; Technology</p><p><blockquote>公司与技术</blockquote></p><p> Seattle, Washington-based Remitly was founded to develop a platform to enable people to send cross-border remittances more easily and at a lower cost than traditional banking service providers.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于华盛顿州西雅图的Remitly成立的目的是开发一个平台，使人们能够比传统银行服务提供商更轻松、成本更低地进行跨境汇款。</blockquote></p><p> Management is headed by co-founder, president and CEO Matthew Oppenheimer, who has been with the firm since inception and was previously employed by Barclays PLC(NYSE:BCS), a multinational bank.</p><p><blockquote>管理层由联合创始人、总裁兼首席执行官马修·奥本海默(Matthew Oppenheimer)领导，他自公司成立以来一直在公司工作，此前曾受雇于跨国银行巴克莱银行(Barclays PLC)(NYSE：BCS)。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s primary offerings include:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的主要产品包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Mobile app</li>  <li>Website</li>  <li>Passbook KYC and identity verification</li> </ul> RELY's coverage map of send and receive countries is shown below:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>移动应用程序</li><li>网站</li><li>存折KYC和身份验证</li></ul>RELY的发送和接收国家覆盖地图如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7da41517703af76d2ad5767a6f62c3e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Remitly has received at least $390 million in equity investment from investors including PayU Fintech Investments, Strips, Threshold Ventures, Generation IM Sustainable Solutions, and Trilogy Equity Partners.</p><p><blockquote>Remitly已从PayU Fintech Investments、Strips、Threshold Ventures、Generation IM Sustainable Solutions和Trilogy Equity Partners等投资者那里获得了至少3.9亿美元的股权投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户获取</b></blockquote></p><p> The firm focuses its development efforts on the over 280 million immigrants and their families who seek to send and receive money worldwide.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的发展重点是超过2.8亿寻求在全球范围内汇款和收款的移民及其家人。</blockquote></p><p> 85% of the user base interacts primarily through its mobile application.</p><p><blockquote>85%的用户群主要通过其移动应用程序进行交互。</blockquote></p><p> Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have dropped markedly as revenues have increased, as the figures below indicate:</p><p><blockquote>营销费用佔总收入的百分比随着收入的增加而显著下降，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02aab34075357a711003ef9c015d8c91\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Marketing spend, rose slightly to 1.9x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p><p><blockquote>营销效率率（定义为每美元营销支出产生多少美元的额外新收入）在最近的报告期内小幅上升至1.9倍，如下表所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ef0f05e558e837af9959d96e698ae\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Market &amp; Competition</p><p><blockquote>市场与竞争</blockquote></p><p> According to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Allied Market Research, the global remittance market was an estimated $683 billion in 2018 and is forecast to reach $930 billion by 2026.</p><p><blockquote>根据Allied Market Research的2020年市场研究报告，2018年全球汇款市场估计为6830亿美元，预计到2026年将达到9300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This represents a forecast CAGR of 3.9% from 2019 to 2026.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着2019年至2026年的预测复合年增长率为3.9%。</blockquote></p><p> The main drivers for this expected growth are an increase in population migration and growth in business remittances and more businesses producing goods and services for export.</p><p><blockquote>这一预期增长的主要驱动力是人口迁移的增加、企业汇款的增长以及更多企业生产出口商品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> Also, the chart below indicates that the bank segment will continue to dominate the global remittance market, at least through 2026:</p><p><blockquote>此外，下图表明，至少到2026年，银行部门将继续主导全球汇款市场：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac62350b35b880b02943827b083ac10f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"778\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（资料来源）</blockquote></p><p> Major competitive or other industry participants by type include:</p><p><blockquote>按类型划分的主要竞争或其他行业参与者包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Traditional providers and banks</li>  <li>Digital-first cross-border providers</li>  <li>Cryptocurrency systems</li>  <li>Person-to-person informal channels</li> </ul> <b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>传统提供商和银行</li><li>数字优先的跨境提供商</li><li>加密货币系统</li><li>个人对个人的非正式渠道</li></ul><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Remitly’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:</p><p><blockquote>Remitly最近的财务业绩可以总结如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sharply growing top line revenue</li>  <li>Increasing gross profit</li>  <li>Variable gross margin within a tight range</li>  <li>Reduced operating losses and negative operating margin</li>  <li>A sharp swing to positive cash flow from operations</li> </ul> Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收急剧增长</li><li>增加毛利</li><li>毛利率在狭窄范围内波动</li><li>营业亏损减少，营业利润率为负</li><li>运营现金流急剧转为正</li></ul>以下是来自公司注册声明的相关财务业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0ce70faef1b56c76c0740d90699667\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe99db82b3de0dae05dd04c280ae89b\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5afee2a5147ec95f52a2d9c6c70566c0\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As of June 30, 2021, Remitly had $173 million in cash and $134 million in total liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，Remitly拥有1.73亿美元现金和1.34亿美元总负债。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($10.6 million).</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月内，自由现金流为负（1060万美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Details</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO详情</b></blockquote></p><p> RELY intends to sell 12.2 million shares of common stock at a proposed midpoint price of $40.00 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $487 million, not including the sale of customary underwriter options.</p><p><blockquote>RELY打算以每股40.00美元的拟议中中间价出售1220万股普通股，总收益约为4.87亿美元，不包括出售惯常承销商期权。</blockquote></p><p> Existing shareholder PayU Fintech has agreed to purchase shares of up to $25.0 million in a concurrent private placement at the IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>现有股东PayU Fintech已同意以IPO价格同时私募购买最多2500万美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Assuming a successful IPO at the midpoint of the proposed price range, the company’s enterprise value at IPO (ex-underwriter options) would approximate $6.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>假设在拟议价格范围的中点成功IPO，该公司IPO时的企业价值（前承销商期权）将约为60亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Excluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 7.53%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.</p><p><blockquote>排除承销商期权和私募股份或限制性股票（如有）的影响，流通股与流通股比率约为7.53%。低于10%的数字通常被认为是“低流通量”股票，可能会受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Per the firm’s most recent regulatory filing, it plans to use the net proceeds as follows:</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司最新的监管文件，它计划使用净收益如下：</blockquote></p><p>   We currently intend to use the net proceeds we receive from this offering and the private placement for working capital and other general corporate purposes, which may include marketing, technology and product development, geographic or product expansions, general and administrative matters, and capital expenditures. We may also use a portion of the net proceeds for the acquisition of, or investment in, technologies, solutions, or businesses that complement our business. However, we do not have agreements or commitments for any acquisitions or investments outside the ordinary course of business at this time.    (Source)  Management’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.</p><p><blockquote>我们目前打算将本次发行和私募获得的净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司用途，其中可能包括营销、技术和产品开发、地理或产品扩张、一般和行政事务以及资本支出。我们还可能将部分净收益用于收购或投资补充我们业务的技术、解决方案或业务。然而，我们目前没有任何正常业务过程之外的收购或投资的协议或承诺。（来源）管理层对公司路演的介绍可在此处获得。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding outstanding legal proceedings, management said the firm is not party to any legal or regulatory proceedings that would be material to its operations or financial condition.</p><p><blockquote>关于未决法律诉讼，管理层表示，该公司不参与任何对其运营或财务状况有重大影响的法律或监管诉讼。</blockquote></p><p> Listed bookrunners of the IPO are Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and other investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>此次IPO的上市账簿管理人包括高盛、摩根大通和其他投资银行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Below is a table of the firm’s relevant capitalization and valuation metrics at IPO, excluding the effects of underwriter options:</p><p><blockquote>下表列出了该公司IPO时的相关资本化和估值指标，不包括承销商期权的影响：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c705850107b99d30d618d9c817fe019\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"709\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As a reference, a potential partial public comparable would be PayPal (PYPL); shown below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，潜在的部分上市可比公司是PayPal（PYPL）；下图是其主要估值指标的比较：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04c287d0fe2fe1b0b983b6cb07ad4b59\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Commentary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评论</b></blockquote></p><p> RELY is seeking to go public in the U.S. to provide capital for its corporate expansion plans.</p><p><blockquote>RELY正在寻求在美国上市，为其企业扩张计划提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> The firm’s financials show strong top line revenue growth, reduced operating losses, and lowered negative operating margin and growing cash flow from operations.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的财务数据显示，营收增长强劲，运营亏损减少，负运营利润率降低，运营现金流不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($10.6 million).</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月的自由现金流为负（1060万美元）。</blockquote></p><p> Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have dropped as revenue has increased and its Marketing efficiency rate grew to 1.9x in the most recent report period.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加，营销费用占总收入的百分比有所下降，其营销效率在最近的报告期内增长至1.9倍。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity for providing cross-border remittance services is very large and expected to grow as immigration continues to rise and businesses produce more goods for export.</p><p><blockquote>提供跨境汇款服务的市场机会非常大，预计随着移民持续增加和企业生产更多出口商品，市场机会还会增长。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 39.5% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p><p><blockquote>高盛是首席承销商，该公司在过去12个月内牵头的IPO自IPO以来的平均回报率为39.5%。这是期内所有主要承销商的中等表现。</blockquote></p><p> The primary risk to the company’s outlook is increased competition from cryptocurrency networks, although these networks have their own adoption hurdles and are still nascent.</p><p><blockquote>该公司前景的主要风险是来自加密货币网络的竞争加剧，尽管这些网络有自己的采用障碍，并且仍处于萌芽阶段。</blockquote></p><p> As for valuation, compared to PayPal, the firm’s revenue multiple expectation is higher, but RELY is also growing top line revenue at a much higher rate, although on a lower revenue base than PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>至于估值，与PayPal相比，该公司的收入倍数预期更高，但RELY的营收增长速度也高得多，尽管收入基础低于PayPal。</blockquote></p><p> RELY is clearly a fast-growing company that is approaching operating breakeven. However, the firm faces competition from fast-growing cryptocurrency networks which are making inroads into the traditional payment rails by companies such as Remitly.</p><p><blockquote>RELY显然是一家快速增长的公司，正在接近运营盈亏平衡。然而，该公司面临着来自快速增长的加密货币网络的竞争，Remitly等公司正在进军传统支付领域。</blockquote></p><p> I’m impressed by the firm’s growth but concerned as to whether that growth can continue at its present rate.</p><p><blockquote>我对公司的增长印象深刻，但担心这种增长是否能以目前的速度持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> RELY is probably a fine investment opportunity, but I'll watch the IPO from the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>RELY可能是一个很好的投资机会，但我会袖手旁观IPO。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Remitly Global opens for trading at $53, up about 23% from IPO price<blockquote>Remitly Global开盘价为53美元，较IPO价格上涨约23%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRemitly Global opens for trading at $53, up about 23% from IPO price<blockquote>Remitly Global开盘价为53美元，较IPO价格上涨约23%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-23 23:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 23)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RELY\">Remitly Global, Inc.</a> opens for trading at $53, up about 23% from IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>（9月23日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RELY\">汇款全球公司。</a>开盘价为53美元，较IPO价格上涨约23%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4f9fae02046c2dec20410744605a2c\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Company &amp; Technology</p><p><blockquote>公司与技术</blockquote></p><p> Seattle, Washington-based Remitly was founded to develop a platform to enable people to send cross-border remittances more easily and at a lower cost than traditional banking service providers.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于华盛顿州西雅图的Remitly成立的目的是开发一个平台，使人们能够比传统银行服务提供商更轻松、成本更低地进行跨境汇款。</blockquote></p><p> Management is headed by co-founder, president and CEO Matthew Oppenheimer, who has been with the firm since inception and was previously employed by Barclays PLC(NYSE:BCS), a multinational bank.</p><p><blockquote>管理层由联合创始人、总裁兼首席执行官马修·奥本海默(Matthew Oppenheimer)领导，他自公司成立以来一直在公司工作，此前曾受雇于跨国银行巴克莱银行(Barclays PLC)(NYSE：BCS)。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s primary offerings include:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的主要产品包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Mobile app</li>  <li>Website</li>  <li>Passbook KYC and identity verification</li> </ul> RELY's coverage map of send and receive countries is shown below:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>移动应用程序</li><li>网站</li><li>存折KYC和身份验证</li></ul>RELY的发送和接收国家覆盖地图如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7da41517703af76d2ad5767a6f62c3e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Remitly has received at least $390 million in equity investment from investors including PayU Fintech Investments, Strips, Threshold Ventures, Generation IM Sustainable Solutions, and Trilogy Equity Partners.</p><p><blockquote>Remitly已从PayU Fintech Investments、Strips、Threshold Ventures、Generation IM Sustainable Solutions和Trilogy Equity Partners等投资者那里获得了至少3.9亿美元的股权投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户获取</b></blockquote></p><p> The firm focuses its development efforts on the over 280 million immigrants and their families who seek to send and receive money worldwide.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的发展重点是超过2.8亿寻求在全球范围内汇款和收款的移民及其家人。</blockquote></p><p> 85% of the user base interacts primarily through its mobile application.</p><p><blockquote>85%的用户群主要通过其移动应用程序进行交互。</blockquote></p><p> Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have dropped markedly as revenues have increased, as the figures below indicate:</p><p><blockquote>营销费用佔总收入的百分比随着收入的增加而显著下降，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02aab34075357a711003ef9c015d8c91\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Marketing spend, rose slightly to 1.9x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p><p><blockquote>营销效率率（定义为每美元营销支出产生多少美元的额外新收入）在最近的报告期内小幅上升至1.9倍，如下表所示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ef0f05e558e837af9959d96e698ae\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Market &amp; Competition</p><p><blockquote>市场与竞争</blockquote></p><p> According to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Allied Market Research, the global remittance market was an estimated $683 billion in 2018 and is forecast to reach $930 billion by 2026.</p><p><blockquote>根据Allied Market Research的2020年市场研究报告，2018年全球汇款市场估计为6830亿美元，预计到2026年将达到9300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This represents a forecast CAGR of 3.9% from 2019 to 2026.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着2019年至2026年的预测复合年增长率为3.9%。</blockquote></p><p> The main drivers for this expected growth are an increase in population migration and growth in business remittances and more businesses producing goods and services for export.</p><p><blockquote>这一预期增长的主要驱动力是人口迁移的增加、企业汇款的增长以及更多企业生产出口商品和服务。</blockquote></p><p> Also, the chart below indicates that the bank segment will continue to dominate the global remittance market, at least through 2026:</p><p><blockquote>此外，下图表明，至少到2026年，银行部门将继续主导全球汇款市场：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac62350b35b880b02943827b083ac10f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"778\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（资料来源）</blockquote></p><p> Major competitive or other industry participants by type include:</p><p><blockquote>按类型划分的主要竞争或其他行业参与者包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Traditional providers and banks</li>  <li>Digital-first cross-border providers</li>  <li>Cryptocurrency systems</li>  <li>Person-to-person informal channels</li> </ul> <b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>传统提供商和银行</li><li>数字优先的跨境提供商</li><li>加密货币系统</li><li>个人对个人的非正式渠道</li></ul><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Remitly’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:</p><p><blockquote>Remitly最近的财务业绩可以总结如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Sharply growing top line revenue</li>  <li>Increasing gross profit</li>  <li>Variable gross margin within a tight range</li>  <li>Reduced operating losses and negative operating margin</li>  <li>A sharp swing to positive cash flow from operations</li> </ul> Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收急剧增长</li><li>增加毛利</li><li>毛利率在狭窄范围内波动</li><li>营业亏损减少，营业利润率为负</li><li>运营现金流急剧转为正</li></ul>以下是来自公司注册声明的相关财务业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0ce70faef1b56c76c0740d90699667\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe99db82b3de0dae05dd04c280ae89b\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5afee2a5147ec95f52a2d9c6c70566c0\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As of June 30, 2021, Remitly had $173 million in cash and $134 million in total liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，Remitly拥有1.73亿美元现金和1.34亿美元总负债。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($10.6 million).</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月内，自由现金流为负（1060万美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Details</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO详情</b></blockquote></p><p> RELY intends to sell 12.2 million shares of common stock at a proposed midpoint price of $40.00 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $487 million, not including the sale of customary underwriter options.</p><p><blockquote>RELY打算以每股40.00美元的拟议中中间价出售1220万股普通股，总收益约为4.87亿美元，不包括出售惯常承销商期权。</blockquote></p><p> Existing shareholder PayU Fintech has agreed to purchase shares of up to $25.0 million in a concurrent private placement at the IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>现有股东PayU Fintech已同意以IPO价格同时私募购买最多2500万美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Assuming a successful IPO at the midpoint of the proposed price range, the company’s enterprise value at IPO (ex-underwriter options) would approximate $6.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>假设在拟议价格范围的中点成功IPO，该公司IPO时的企业价值（前承销商期权）将约为60亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Excluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 7.53%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.</p><p><blockquote>排除承销商期权和私募股份或限制性股票（如有）的影响，流通股与流通股比率约为7.53%。低于10%的数字通常被认为是“低流通量”股票，可能会受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Per the firm’s most recent regulatory filing, it plans to use the net proceeds as follows:</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司最新的监管文件，它计划使用净收益如下：</blockquote></p><p>   We currently intend to use the net proceeds we receive from this offering and the private placement for working capital and other general corporate purposes, which may include marketing, technology and product development, geographic or product expansions, general and administrative matters, and capital expenditures. We may also use a portion of the net proceeds for the acquisition of, or investment in, technologies, solutions, or businesses that complement our business. However, we do not have agreements or commitments for any acquisitions or investments outside the ordinary course of business at this time.    (Source)  Management’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.</p><p><blockquote>我们目前打算将本次发行和私募获得的净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司用途，其中可能包括营销、技术和产品开发、地理或产品扩张、一般和行政事务以及资本支出。我们还可能将部分净收益用于收购或投资补充我们业务的技术、解决方案或业务。然而，我们目前没有任何正常业务过程之外的收购或投资的协议或承诺。（来源）管理层对公司路演的介绍可在此处获得。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding outstanding legal proceedings, management said the firm is not party to any legal or regulatory proceedings that would be material to its operations or financial condition.</p><p><blockquote>关于未决法律诉讼，管理层表示，该公司不参与任何对其运营或财务状况有重大影响的法律或监管诉讼。</blockquote></p><p> Listed bookrunners of the IPO are Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and other investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>此次IPO的上市账簿管理人包括高盛、摩根大通和其他投资银行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Below is a table of the firm’s relevant capitalization and valuation metrics at IPO, excluding the effects of underwriter options:</p><p><blockquote>下表列出了该公司IPO时的相关资本化和估值指标，不包括承销商期权的影响：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c705850107b99d30d618d9c817fe019\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"709\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As a reference, a potential partial public comparable would be PayPal (PYPL); shown below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，潜在的部分上市可比公司是PayPal（PYPL）；下图是其主要估值指标的比较：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04c287d0fe2fe1b0b983b6cb07ad4b59\" tg-width=\"611\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Commentary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评论</b></blockquote></p><p> RELY is seeking to go public in the U.S. to provide capital for its corporate expansion plans.</p><p><blockquote>RELY正在寻求在美国上市，为其企业扩张计划提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> The firm’s financials show strong top line revenue growth, reduced operating losses, and lowered negative operating margin and growing cash flow from operations.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的财务数据显示，营收增长强劲，运营亏损减少，负运营利润率降低，运营现金流不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($10.6 million).</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月的自由现金流为负（1060万美元）。</blockquote></p><p> Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have dropped as revenue has increased and its Marketing efficiency rate grew to 1.9x in the most recent report period.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加，营销费用占总收入的百分比有所下降，其营销效率在最近的报告期内增长至1.9倍。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity for providing cross-border remittance services is very large and expected to grow as immigration continues to rise and businesses produce more goods for export.</p><p><blockquote>提供跨境汇款服务的市场机会非常大，预计随着移民持续增加和企业生产更多出口商品，市场机会还会增长。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 39.5% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p><p><blockquote>高盛是首席承销商，该公司在过去12个月内牵头的IPO自IPO以来的平均回报率为39.5%。这是期内所有主要承销商的中等表现。</blockquote></p><p> The primary risk to the company’s outlook is increased competition from cryptocurrency networks, although these networks have their own adoption hurdles and are still nascent.</p><p><blockquote>该公司前景的主要风险是来自加密货币网络的竞争加剧，尽管这些网络有自己的采用障碍，并且仍处于萌芽阶段。</blockquote></p><p> As for valuation, compared to PayPal, the firm’s revenue multiple expectation is higher, but RELY is also growing top line revenue at a much higher rate, although on a lower revenue base than PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>至于估值，与PayPal相比，该公司的收入倍数预期更高，但RELY的营收增长速度也高得多，尽管收入基础低于PayPal。</blockquote></p><p> RELY is clearly a fast-growing company that is approaching operating breakeven. However, the firm faces competition from fast-growing cryptocurrency networks which are making inroads into the traditional payment rails by companies such as Remitly.</p><p><blockquote>RELY显然是一家快速增长的公司，正在接近运营盈亏平衡。然而，该公司面临着来自快速增长的加密货币网络的竞争，Remitly等公司正在进军传统支付领域。</blockquote></p><p> I’m impressed by the firm’s growth but concerned as to whether that growth can continue at its present rate.</p><p><blockquote>我对公司的增长印象深刻，但担心这种增长是否能以目前的速度持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> RELY is probably a fine investment opportunity, but I'll watch the IPO from the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>RELY可能是一个很好的投资机会，但我会袖手旁观IPO。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RELY":"Remitly Global, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181941187","content_text":"(Sept 23) Remitly Global, Inc. opens for trading at $53, up about 23% from IPO price.\nCompany & Technology\nSeattle, Washington-based Remitly was founded to develop a platform to enable people to send cross-border remittances more easily and at a lower cost than traditional banking service providers.\nManagement is headed by co-founder, president and CEO Matthew Oppenheimer, who has been with the firm since inception and was previously employed by Barclays PLC(NYSE:BCS), a multinational bank.\nThe company’s primary offerings include:\n\nMobile app\nWebsite\nPassbook KYC and identity verification\n\nRELY's coverage map of send and receive countries is shown below:\nRemitly has received at least $390 million in equity investment from investors including PayU Fintech Investments, Strips, Threshold Ventures, Generation IM Sustainable Solutions, and Trilogy Equity Partners.\nCustomer Acquisition\nThe firm focuses its development efforts on the over 280 million immigrants and their families who seek to send and receive money worldwide.\n85% of the user base interacts primarily through its mobile application.\nMarketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have dropped markedly as revenues have increased, as the figures below indicate:\nThe Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Marketing spend, rose slightly to 1.9x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:\nMarket & Competition\nAccording to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Allied Market Research, the global remittance market was an estimated $683 billion in 2018 and is forecast to reach $930 billion by 2026.\nThis represents a forecast CAGR of 3.9% from 2019 to 2026.\nThe main drivers for this expected growth are an increase in population migration and growth in business remittances and more businesses producing goods and services for export.\nAlso, the chart below indicates that the bank segment will continue to dominate the global remittance market, at least through 2026:\n\n(Source)\nMajor competitive or other industry participants by type include:\n\nTraditional providers and banks\nDigital-first cross-border providers\nCryptocurrency systems\nPerson-to-person informal channels\n\nFinancial Performance\nRemitly’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:\n\nSharply growing top line revenue\nIncreasing gross profit\nVariable gross margin within a tight range\nReduced operating losses and negative operating margin\nA sharp swing to positive cash flow from operations\n\nBelow are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:\nAs of June 30, 2021, Remitly had $173 million in cash and $134 million in total liabilities.\nFree cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($10.6 million).\nIPO Details\nRELY intends to sell 12.2 million shares of common stock at a proposed midpoint price of $40.00 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $487 million, not including the sale of customary underwriter options.\nExisting shareholder PayU Fintech has agreed to purchase shares of up to $25.0 million in a concurrent private placement at the IPO price.\nAssuming a successful IPO at the midpoint of the proposed price range, the company’s enterprise value at IPO (ex-underwriter options) would approximate $6.0 billion.\nExcluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 7.53%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.\nPer the firm’s most recent regulatory filing, it plans to use the net proceeds as follows:\n\n We currently intend to use the net proceeds we receive from this offering and the private placement for working capital and other general corporate purposes, which may include marketing, technology and product development, geographic or product expansions, general and administrative matters, and capital expenditures. We may also use a portion of the net proceeds for the acquisition of, or investment in, technologies, solutions, or businesses that complement our business. However, we do not have agreements or commitments for any acquisitions or investments outside the ordinary course of business at this time.\n\n\n (Source)\n\nManagement’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.\nRegarding outstanding legal proceedings, management said the firm is not party to any legal or regulatory proceedings that would be material to its operations or financial condition.\nListed bookrunners of the IPO are Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and other investment banks.\nValuation Metrics\nBelow is a table of the firm’s relevant capitalization and valuation metrics at IPO, excluding the effects of underwriter options:\nAs a reference, a potential partial public comparable would be PayPal (PYPL); shown below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:\n\nCommentary\nRELY is seeking to go public in the U.S. to provide capital for its corporate expansion plans.\nThe firm’s financials show strong top line revenue growth, reduced operating losses, and lowered negative operating margin and growing cash flow from operations.\nFree cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($10.6 million).\nMarketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have dropped as revenue has increased and its Marketing efficiency rate grew to 1.9x in the most recent report period.\nThe market opportunity for providing cross-border remittance services is very large and expected to grow as immigration continues to rise and businesses produce more goods for export.\nGoldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 39.5% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.\nThe primary risk to the company’s outlook is increased competition from cryptocurrency networks, although these networks have their own adoption hurdles and are still nascent.\nAs for valuation, compared to PayPal, the firm’s revenue multiple expectation is higher, but RELY is also growing top line revenue at a much higher rate, although on a lower revenue base than PayPal.\nRELY is clearly a fast-growing company that is approaching operating breakeven. However, the firm faces competition from fast-growing cryptocurrency networks which are making inroads into the traditional payment rails by companies such as Remitly.\nI’m impressed by the firm’s growth but concerned as to whether that growth can continue at its present rate.\nRELY is probably a fine investment opportunity, but I'll watch the IPO from the sidelines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RELY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863995101,"gmtCreate":1632351915003,"gmtModify":1632801085036,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863995101","repostId":"2169657474","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860333178,"gmtCreate":1632132517594,"gmtModify":1632802642856,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860333178","repostId":"1119691293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119691293","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632130829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119691293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 17:40","market":"other","language":"en","title":"SmileDirectClub surged nearly 18% in premarket trading<blockquote>SmileDirectClub盘前交易飙升近18%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119691293","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 20) SmileDirectClub, Inc. surged nearly 18% in premarket trading despite there being no fundam","content":"<p>(Sept 20)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SDC\">SmileDirectClub, Inc.</a> surged nearly 18% in premarket trading&nbsp;despite there being no fundamental news and the market being relatively weak. One potential reason could be Reddit traders, who have moved in and out of highly shorted stocks in the past.</p><p><blockquote>（9月20日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SDC\">微笑直接俱乐部公司。</a>尽管没有基本面消息且市场相对疲软，但盘前交易中仍飙升近18%。一个潜在的原因可能是Reddit交易员，他们过去曾进出过高度做空的股票。</blockquote></p><p> One potential reason could be Reddit traders, who have moved in and out of highly shorted stocks in the past.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的原因可能是Reddit交易员，他们过去曾进出过高度做空的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fcde38addeb14946bd21fea8e3fdbd6\" tg-width=\"1134\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SmileDirectClub surged nearly 18% in premarket trading<blockquote>SmileDirectClub盘前交易飙升近18%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSmileDirectClub surged nearly 18% in premarket trading<blockquote>SmileDirectClub盘前交易飙升近18%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-20 17:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 20)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SDC\">SmileDirectClub, Inc.</a> surged nearly 18% in premarket trading&nbsp;despite there being no fundamental news and the market being relatively weak. One potential reason could be Reddit traders, who have moved in and out of highly shorted stocks in the past.</p><p><blockquote>（9月20日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SDC\">微笑直接俱乐部公司。</a>尽管没有基本面消息且市场相对疲软，但盘前交易中仍飙升近18%。一个潜在的原因可能是Reddit交易员，他们过去曾进出过高度做空的股票。</blockquote></p><p> One potential reason could be Reddit traders, who have moved in and out of highly shorted stocks in the past.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的原因可能是Reddit交易员，他们过去曾进出过高度做空的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fcde38addeb14946bd21fea8e3fdbd6\" tg-width=\"1134\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SDC":"SmileDirectClub, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119691293","content_text":"(Sept 20) SmileDirectClub, Inc. surged nearly 18% in premarket trading despite there being no fundamental news and the market being relatively weak. One potential reason could be Reddit traders, who have moved in and out of highly shorted stocks in the past.\nOne potential reason could be Reddit traders, who have moved in and out of highly shorted stocks in the past.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834025209,"gmtCreate":1629763520101,"gmtModify":1633682670668,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834025209","repostId":"1140215654","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897746573,"gmtCreate":1628990175292,"gmtModify":1633688175917,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897746573","repostId":"1147342921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147342921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628987746,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147342921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: IPO calendar is quiet amid annual August break<blockquote>美国IPO一周：八月年度假期期间IPO日历平静</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147342921","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"The IPO market’s annual August lull is in full swing with no IPOs currently scheduled for the week a","content":"<p>The IPO market’s annual August lull is in full swing with no IPOs currently scheduled for the week ahead. While the calendar is empty for now, we may see some SPACs join the calendar throughout the week. We also anticipate filing activity to pick up in the coming weeks ahead of the post-Labor Day rush.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场一年一度的8月份平静期正在如火如荼地进行，目前未来一周没有IPO计划。虽然日历目前是空的，但我们可能会在本周看到一些SPAC加入日历。我们还预计，在劳动节后高峰到来之前的未来几周内，申请活动将会增加。</blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for 19 companies in the week ahead, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to seven companies. For access to Street research and lock-up expiration dates,sign up for a free trial of IPO Pro.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一周将有19家公司接受街头调查，最多7家公司的禁售期将到期。要获得街头研究和锁定到期日，请注册免费试用IPO Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 8/12/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 0.8% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 18.8%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 9.7% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 9.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年8月12日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了0.8%，而标普500上涨了18.8%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌9.7%，而ACWX指数上涨9.3%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括EQT Partners和思摩尔国际。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: IPO calendar is quiet amid annual August break<blockquote>美国IPO一周：八月年度假期期间IPO日历平静</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: IPO calendar is quiet amid annual August break<blockquote>美国IPO一周：八月年度假期期间IPO日历平静</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 08:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market’s annual August lull is in full swing with no IPOs currently scheduled for the week ahead. While the calendar is empty for now, we may see some SPACs join the calendar throughout the week. We also anticipate filing activity to pick up in the coming weeks ahead of the post-Labor Day rush.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场一年一度的8月份平静期正在如火如荼地进行，目前未来一周没有IPO计划。虽然日历目前是空的，但我们可能会在本周看到一些SPAC加入日历。我们还预计，在劳动节后高峰到来之前的未来几周内，申请活动将会增加。</blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for 19 companies in the week ahead, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to seven companies. For access to Street research and lock-up expiration dates,sign up for a free trial of IPO Pro.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一周将有19家公司接受街头调查，最多7家公司的禁售期将到期。要获得街头研究和锁定到期日，请注册免费试用IPO Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 8/12/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 0.8% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 18.8%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 9.7% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 9.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年8月12日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了0.8%，而标普500上涨了18.8%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌9.7%，而ACWX指数上涨9.3%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括EQT Partners和思摩尔国际。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85282/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-IPO-calendar-is-quiet-amid-annual-August-break\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85282/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-IPO-calendar-is-quiet-amid-annual-August-break","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147342921","content_text":"The IPO market’s annual August lull is in full swing with no IPOs currently scheduled for the week ahead. While the calendar is empty for now, we may see some SPACs join the calendar throughout the week. We also anticipate filing activity to pick up in the coming weeks ahead of the post-Labor Day rush.\nStreet research is expected for 19 companies in the week ahead, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to seven companies. For access to Street research and lock-up expiration dates,sign up for a free trial of IPO Pro.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 8/12/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 0.8% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 18.8%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 9.7% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 9.3%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore 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21:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115058296","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might","content":"<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Surefire Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的3只万无一失的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 21:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.</p><p><blockquote>大多数人听到这个消息不会感到兴奋，但股市崩盘或两位数的调整可能即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> To be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，没有人能够长期准确地预测崩盘或调整何时会发生、下跌幅度有多大、持续时间有多长，或者在许多情况下是什么会促使大盘下跌。但有一点是明确的：崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分，也是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造者的代价。</blockquote></p><p> History isn't the market's friend in the near term</p><p><blockquote>短期内历史并不是市场的朋友</blockquote></p><p> At the moment, there are&nbsp;no shortage of tail&nbsp;winds&nbsp;for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.</p><p><blockquote>目前，股市崩盘不乏顺风。特别是，历史似乎并不是基准的朋友<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)短期内。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the widely followed S&amp;P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&amp;P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1960年以来，广受关注的标普500在前八次熊市底部之后都表现类似。在从低谷反弹的三年内，标普500总会出现一两次下跌至少10%的情况。从熊市底部反弹是一个坎坷的过程，需要时间。随着基础广泛的指数在不到17个月的时间里翻了一番，我们很可能早就应该出现一些“颠簸”了。</blockquote></p><p> History is&nbsp;no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.</p><p><blockquote>历史也不喜欢高估值。截至10月4日星期一收盘，该标普500的席勒市盈率超过37。席勒市盈率考虑了过去10年经通胀调整的收益。虽然自20世纪90年代中期以来，通过互联网获取信息有助于扩大市盈率倍数，但历史非常清楚，当标普500的希勒市盈率超过30时，坏事就会发生。在之前的四次发生这种情况时，基础广泛的指数至少下跌了20%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's&nbsp;not normal&nbsp;for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>就连保证金债务使用背后的历史也令人担忧。尽管名义保证金债务随着时间的推移而增加是完全正常的，但保证金债务使用量在短时间内飙升是不正常的。自1995年以来，已有三起保证金债务使用量在某一年跃升至少60%的情况。其中两个例子发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始之前。第三个例子是在2021年。</blockquote></p><p> The table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>标普500似乎将出现大幅但健康的回调。</blockquote></p><p> A crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks</p><p><blockquote>崩盘或大幅调整是购买这些万无一失的股票的最佳时机</blockquote></p><p> While big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.</p><p><blockquote>虽然众所周知，市场大幅下跌会引起投资者的焦虑，但这也是买入的绝佳机会。你看，虽然历史在短期内不是市场的朋友，但从长期来看，它无疑是投资者最伟大的盟友。</blockquote></p><p> For example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&amp;P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500跟踪指数从来没有一个连续20年不能为投资者带来正的年化总回报。崩盘或调整只是一个以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Should this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近的抛售表现为崩盘或调整，可以放心地买入以下三只万无一失的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦</blockquote></p><p> Few stocks have&nbsp;generated more surefire returns&nbsp;for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.</p><p><blockquote>很少有股票比沃伦·巴菲特的企业集团为长期投资者带来更可靠的回报<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B）。自1965年接任首席执行官以来，巴菲特监管的公司A类股(BRK.A)的平均年回报率为20%。总体而言，考虑到伯克希尔哈撒韦公司今年迄今的回报，巴菲特在56年内创造了约6000亿美元的股东价值，并产生了约3,300,000%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though there is&nbsp;a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特成功的原因有很多，但他对周期性业务的倾向发挥了重要作用。尽管这位奥马哈先知很清楚经济收缩和衰退是不可避免的，但他明白扩张时期往往会持续更长时间。因此，他在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合中加入了银行股、科技股和消费必需品公司，这些公司将在经济扩张期间蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on&nbsp;dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司带来如此令人难以置信的回报的另一个原因是巴菲特对股息股票的关注。虽然伯克希尔哈撒韦公司不支付股息，但它有望在2021年获得超过50亿美元的股息收入。相对于伯克希尔持股的成本基础，这一收益率接近5%。由于股息股票几乎总是盈利且经过时间考验，因此它们符合巴菲特长期持有的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Long story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.</p><p><blockquote>长话短说，搭巴菲特的顺风车往往是明智之举。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Another surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com</b>(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).</p><p><blockquote>另一只持续向股东交付、在股市崩盘期间购买的万无一失的股票是<b>Salesforce.com</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CRM），为基于云的客户关系管理（CRM）提供软件解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> For those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不熟悉CRM的人来说，它被面向消费者的企业用来加强客户关系和促进销售。它可用于处理服务或产品问题、监督在线营销活动以及对现有客户群进行预测性销售分析。CRM软件特别值得注意的是，它正在进入非传统领域，如金融和医疗保健。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce&nbsp;sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share&nbsp;<b>Oracle</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>Microsoft</b>, and&nbsp;<b>Adobe</b>&nbsp;possessed last year on a&nbsp;<i>combined</i>&nbsp;basis.&nbsp; A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.</p><p><blockquote>基于云的CRM软件至少在十年中期提供了两位数的增长潜力，而Salesforce处于这一快速增长趋势的中心。根据IDC的数据，2020年Salesforce控制了全球CRM支出的19.5%，比份额高出整整一个百分点<b>神谕</b>,<b>SAP</b>,<b>微软</b>，和<b>土坯</b>去年在一个<i>联合的</i>基础。股市的一点动荡不会改变对CRM软件解决方案的需求，也不会削弱Salesforce的市场份额领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, CEO Marc Benioff&nbsp;has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫是一位收购专家。对MuleSoft、Tableau以及最近对Slack Technologies的收购增加了该公司基于云的生态系统，预计未来五年年销售额将增长一倍以上，达到500亿美元。投资者购买Salesforce股票可以获得的任何折扣都应被视为一份礼物。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet</blockquote></p><p> A third&nbsp;surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises&nbsp;is&nbsp;<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整出现，第三只值得买入的股票是<b>Alphabet</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG），互联网搜索引擎谷歌和流媒体内容提供商YouTube的母公司。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a&nbsp;91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.</p><p><blockquote>说到全球互联网搜索，有谷歌和其他所有人。问题是，“其他人”几乎不动针。根据GlobalStats的数据，9月份谷歌占据了全球搜索引擎市场92%的份额。回顾两年前，情况大同小异，谷歌占据了全球互联网搜索91%至93%的份额。作为广告商的明确首选，Alphabet(Elon Musk)的谷歌从美国和全球经济扩张的漫长时期中受益匪浅。</blockquote></p><p> What might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>可能比Alphabet名副其实的互联网搜索垄断更令人兴奋的是该公司快速增长的辅助项目。流媒体服务提供商YouTube第二季度广告收入飙升84%，年销售额达到280亿美元。YouTube已经迅速成为地球上访问量最大的社交网站之一。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's&nbsp;absolutely no reason&nbsp;for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谷歌云在截至6月的季度实现了54%的销售额增长，目前年销售额超过180亿美元。谷歌云是云基础设施领域的第三大参与者，随着时间的推移，它应该会成长为Alphabet运营现金流的主要来源。如果市场崩盘或调整，Alphabet绝对没有理由不在您的买入名单上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","GOOGL":"谷歌A","CRM":"赛富时","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/09/3-surefire-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115058296","content_text":"Most folks won't be thrilled to hear this, but a stock market crash or double-digit correction might be on the way.\nTo be crystal clear, no one can predict with any long-term accuracy precisely when a crash or correction will occur, how steep the decline will be, how long it'll last, or in many instances what'll precipitate the move lower in the broader market. But one thing is clear: Crashes and correction are a normal part of the investing cycle and the price of admission to the greatest wealth creator on the planet.\nHistory isn't the market's friend in the near term\nAt the moment, there are no shortage of tail winds for a stock market crash. In particular, history doesn't look to be the friend of the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC)over the short term.\nFor instance, the widely followed S&P 500 has behaved similarly following each of its previous eight bear-market bottoms, dating back to 1960. Within three years of bouncing back from its trough, the S&P 500 has always had one or two instances where it's declined by at least 10%. Rallying from a bear-market bottom is a bumpy process that takes time. With the broad-based index doubling in value in less than 17 months, there's a good chance we're long overdue for some \"bumps.\"\nHistory is no fan of extended valuations, either. As of the close of business on Monday, Oct. 4, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was north of 37. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. While access to information over the internet has helped expand P/E multiples since the mid-1990s, history is quite clear that bad things happen when the S&P 500's Shiller P/E crosses above 30. In the previous four instances this has happened, the broad-based index shed at least 20% of its value.\nEven the history behind margin-debt usage is worrisome. Although it's perfectly normal for nominal margin debt outstanding to increase over time, it's not normal for margin-debt usage to skyrocket higher in a short time frame. There have been three instances since 1995 where margin-debt usage jumped by at least 60% in a given year. Two of these instances were directly before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began. The third instance is in 2021.\nThe table would appear to be a set for sizable but healthy pullback in the S&P 500.\nA crash or steep correction is the perfect time to buy these surefire stocks\nWhile big moves lower in the market are known to cause investor anxiety, they're also the perfect opportunity to pounce. You see, whereas history isn't the market's friend in the short run, it's unquestionably thegreatest ally of investors over the long term.\nFor example, there's never been a rolling 20-year period over the past century when an S&P 500 tracking index wouldn't have generated a positive annualized total return for investors. A crash or correction is simply an opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.\nShould this recent sell-off manifest into a crash or correction, the following three surefire stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nBerkshire Hathaway\nFew stocks have generated more surefire returns for long-term investors than Warren Buffett's conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B). Since taking over as CEO in 1965, Buffett has overseen an average annual return of the company's Class A shares (BRK.A) of 20%. In aggregate, and taking into account the year-to-date return of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has created around $600 billion in shareholder value and produced a roughly 3,300,000% return in 56 years.\nThough there is a laundry list of reasons for Buffett's success, his leanings toward cyclical businesses plays a big role. Even though the Oracle of Omaha is well aware that economic contractions and recessions are inevitable, he understands that periods of expansion tend to last substantially longer. Thus, he's packed Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio with bank stocks, tech stocks, and consumer staples companies that'll thrive during an expanding economy.\nAnother reason Berkshire Hathaway has delivered such incredible returns is Buffett's focus on dividend stocks. While Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it's on pace to collect more than $5 billion in dividend income in 2021. That's nearly a 5% yield, relative to the cost basis of Berkshire's holdings. Since dividend stocks are almost always profitable and time-tested, they fit the bill of what Buffett is looking for in a long-term holding.\nLong story short, riding Buffett's coattails has often been a smart move.\nSalesforce\nAnother surefire stock that's continuously delivered for its shareholders and would be perfect to buy during a stock market crash is Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM), which provides software solutions for cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM).\nFor those of you unfamiliar with CRM, it's used by consumer-facing businesses to enhance customer relationships and boost sales. It can be used to handle service or product issues, oversee online marketing campaigns, and run predictive sales analyses of an existing client base. What's particularly noteworthy about CRM software is that it's finding its way into nontraditional sectors, such as finance and healthcare.\nCloud-based CRM software offers double-digit growth potential through at least mid-decade, and Salesforce sits at the center of this rapidly growing trend. According to IDC, Salesforce controlled 19.5% of global CRM spending in 2020, which is over a full percentage point higher than the share Oracle,SAP,Microsoft, and Adobe possessed last year on a combined basis.  A little stock market turbulence doesn't change demand for CRM software solutions or weaken Salesforce's commanding market share lead.\nWhat's more, CEO Marc Benioff has been an acquisition maven. The buyouts of MuleSoft, Tableau, and most recently Slack Technologies have added to the company's cloud-based ecosystem and should allow annual sales to more than double to $50 billion over the next five years. Any discount investors can get on shares of Salesforce should be viewed as a gift.\nAlphabet\nA third surefire stock to buy if a stock market crash or correction arises is Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), the parent company of internet search engine Google and streaming content provider YouTube.\nWhen it comes to global internet search, there's Google and everyone else. The thing is, \"everyone else\" barely moves the needle. According to GlobalStats, Google accounted for 92% of the worldwide search engine market in September. Looking back two years, it's much of the same, with Google holding a 91% to 93% share of global internet search. As the clear go-to for advertisers, Alphabet's Google benefits immensely from long-winded periods of U.S. and global economic expansion.\nWhat might be even more exciting than Alphabet's veritable monopoly on internet search is the company's rapidly growing ancillary projects. Streaming service provider YouTube saw ad revenue surge 84% in the second quarter, with its annual sales run rate hitting $28 billion. YouTube has quickly become one of the most-visited social sites on the planet.\nMeanwhile, Google Cloud delivered 54% sales growth in the June-ended quarter and now sports an annual run rate over $18 billion in sales. Google Cloud is the third-biggest player in cloud infrastructure and should grow into a major source of operating cash flow for Alphabet over time. There's absolutely no reason for Alphabet not to be on your buy list if the market crashes or corrects.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"CRM":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":899593405,"gmtCreate":1628205243907,"gmtModify":1633752733017,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899593405","repostId":"2157456017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807908376,"gmtCreate":1627993809895,"gmtModify":1633754582500,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807908376","repostId":"1126095878","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809207574,"gmtCreate":1627370494298,"gmtModify":1633765649322,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809207574","repostId":"2154995370","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174323825,"gmtCreate":1627080955967,"gmtModify":1633768266114,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174323825","repostId":"2153751984","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149054400,"gmtCreate":1625697680000,"gmtModify":1633938363397,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149054400","repostId":"2149313920","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":858657951,"gmtCreate":1635048340087,"gmtModify":1635048340286,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858657951","repostId":"2177489964","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2177489964","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635042148,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2177489964?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-24 10:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The PC slowdown shouldn't hurt Microsoft earnings, and here's why<blockquote>个人电脑放缓不应损害微软的盈利，原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2177489964","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain iss","content":"<p>Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain issues affecting PC sales</p><p><blockquote>Azure和其他云产品的增长应该会掩盖影响PC销售的供应链问题带来的任何失望</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/958e56d50bc03c5ef2195a2a879bec71\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft Corp. is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软定于周二盘后发布第一财季财报。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in personal computer sales due to supply-chain issues in recent months would have hurt Microsoft Corp. in past years, but the company's pivot to cloud computing and cloud software should insulate it from any earnings fallout.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，由于供应链问题导致的个人电脑销售放缓在过去几年可能会损害微软公司，但该公司转向云计算和云软件应该会使其免受任何盈利影响。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon, as it rolls out its new Windows 11 operating system and PC makers struggle to deliver new machines. While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.</p><p><blockquote>微软定于周二下午公布第一财季财报，该公司将推出新的Windows 11操作系统，而PC制造商正在努力交付新机器。如果个人电脑出货量受损且新操作系统没有迅速采用，Bill Gates和Steve Ballmer的微软将面临华尔街的大量悲观情绪，但Satya Nadella的微软应该会很好。</blockquote></p><p> That is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s&nbsp;Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为分析师和投资者主要关注Azure（微软对亚马逊公司Amazon Web Services的云计算解决方案）以及云软件产品，从而降低了微软PC业务的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> \"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"</p><p><blockquote>“持续的数字化转型势头应该会抵消IDC和Gartner对PC设备出货量的混合估计的影响，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师在报告的预览中写道，稍后补充道：“虽然我们对Windows OEM厂商的负增长前景给微软的长期收益预期带来压力，但我们也注意到，总体而言，Windows OEM厂商代表总体微软收入和毛利的组合不断下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Azure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google&nbsp;(GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).</p><p><blockquote>Azure已经确保Windows对微软的重要性已经下降。快速增长的云业务是所有有关微软的分析师报告的首要内容，分析师预计收入将增长40%左右。（尽管AWS和谷歌（GOOGL）云为其竞争服务提供了全部收入和营业利润，但微软没有披露Azure的性能，除了百分比增益）。</blockquote></p><p> \"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“从根本上说，之前签署的长期Azure协议的贡献不断增加、新冠疫情后持续的云迁移、微软对云垂直化的日益关注以及微软365席位的强劲增长可以维持Azure的长期持久增长。”</blockquote></p><p> There are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.</p><p><blockquote>还有一些因素也可能促进微软的增长，尤其是在预测中。对专注于医疗保健的公司Nuance的197亿美元收购预计将在今年年底前完成，微软最近透露，其基于云的收入将与Azure归入同一收入类别。</blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软没有透露这到底意味着什么，但瑞银分析师在9月份表示，Nuance之前的披露以及他们与该公司投资者关系团队的看涨期权使他们估计Nuance约46%的收入将来自云。他们估计，如果将整个季度包括在内，这意味着微软云部门在第二财季的销售额将增加约9100万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Another bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.</p><p><blockquote>微软最受欢迎的云软件产品Office 365的价格上涨可能会在未来带来另一个上涨。微软将该产品的价格全面提高10%以上，该公司称这是“自十年前推出Office 365以来的首次实质性定价更新”，这也让分析师相信微软能够承受任何供应链压力PC市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to expect</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期待什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>分析师平均预计微软每股收益为2.08美元，高于一年前的每股1.82美元。Estimize是一个众包平台，收集华尔街分析师以及买方分析师、基金经理、公司高管、学者和其他人的预测，其贡献者预测每股收益为2.22美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue:</b> Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>分析师平均预测销售额为439.3亿美元，比一年前的371.5亿美元有所改善，此前微软预测营收为433亿美元至442亿美元。Estimize贡献者预计销售额为448.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计“智能云”部门的销售额为165.2亿美元，此前微软的预期为164亿至166.5亿美元；以云软件为重点的“生产力和业务解决方案”部门的销售额为146.7亿美元，此前预测为145亿至147.5亿美元；127.2亿美元来自“更多个人计算”，此前销售额指引为124亿至128亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&amp;P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>过去五个季度中有四个季度发布财报后，微软股价均出现下跌，但上一次跌幅仅为0.1%。该股在过去三个月上涨了8.1%，在过去一年上涨了45.2%，而标普500指数在此期间分别上涨了4.1%和31.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What analysts are saying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.</p><p><blockquote>分析师们对微软目前的立场相当一致。根据FactSet的跟踪，36名分析师中有33名分析师将该股评级为买入，而另外3名分析师将其评级为持有。</blockquote></p><p> \"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“微软目前的交易价格是我们23年GAAP每股收益预期的27倍，代表了软件领域强劲的长期定位和合理估值的罕见组合。”摩根士丹利分析师对跑赢大盘股票的评级为331美元。</blockquote></p><p> The once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.</p><p><blockquote>曾经的担忧似乎是当前增长轨迹的持久性，这就是为什么收购Nuance和提高Office 365的定价被视为该股继续上涨的关键。</blockquote></p><p> \"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"</p><p><blockquote>Jeffries分析师写道：“整个22财年，竞争将逐渐变得更加严峻，微软Azure/Security/Teams的持久增长投资组合应该可以满足这一需求。”他们给予跑赢大盘评级，最近将目标价从345美元上调至375美元。“值得关注的关键项目是期望提高（据报道Azure High 40）、与Nuance的集成以及安全投资的增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.</p><p><blockquote>微软从疫情中受益，因为公司依靠云计算能力和软件在远程工作时保持团队联系。但微软牛市和Wedbush分析师Daniel Ives并不认为重返办公室是繁荣将结束的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ives在报告预览中写道：“我们认为，华尔街对在家办公周期另一端云增长放缓的看法与微软在该领域看到的交易活动相反。”Ives给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为375美元。“虽然我们在过去几年中看到了这种背景的势头，但我们相信，进入2022财年，交易流看起来将逐渐强劲（尤其是Office 365/Azure组合交易），因为我们估计微软通过渗透其无与伦比的云过渡安装基础。”</blockquote></p><p> Stifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel分析师对此表示赞同，给予买入评级和325美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们仍然认为，疫情正在迫使组织加快云迁移的步伐，微软仍然是这种现代化支出的主要受益者，特别是在巨大的新政势头下，因为其广泛的堆栈使其能够捕获以前无法实现的一级工作负载，”他们写道。</blockquote></p><p> The average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.</p><p><blockquote>截至周五下午，微软股票的平均目标价为335.47美元，比现行汇率高出约8.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe PC slowdown shouldn't hurt Microsoft earnings, and here's why<blockquote>个人电脑放缓不应损害微软的盈利，原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-24 10:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain issues affecting PC sales</p><p><blockquote>Azure和其他云产品的增长应该会掩盖影响PC销售的供应链问题带来的任何失望</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/958e56d50bc03c5ef2195a2a879bec71\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft Corp. is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软定于周二盘后发布第一财季财报。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in personal computer sales due to supply-chain issues in recent months would have hurt Microsoft Corp. in past years, but the company's pivot to cloud computing and cloud software should insulate it from any earnings fallout.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，由于供应链问题导致的个人电脑销售放缓在过去几年可能会损害微软公司，但该公司转向云计算和云软件应该会使其免受任何盈利影响。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon, as it rolls out its new Windows 11 operating system and PC makers struggle to deliver new machines. While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.</p><p><blockquote>微软定于周二下午公布第一财季财报，该公司将推出新的Windows 11操作系统，而PC制造商正在努力交付新机器。如果个人电脑出货量受损且新操作系统没有迅速采用，Bill Gates和Steve Ballmer的微软将面临华尔街的大量悲观情绪，但Satya Nadella的微软应该会很好。</blockquote></p><p> That is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s&nbsp;Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为分析师和投资者主要关注Azure（微软对亚马逊公司Amazon Web Services的云计算解决方案）以及云软件产品，从而降低了微软PC业务的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> \"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"</p><p><blockquote>“持续的数字化转型势头应该会抵消IDC和Gartner对PC设备出货量的混合估计的影响，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师在报告的预览中写道，稍后补充道：“虽然我们对Windows OEM厂商的负增长前景给微软的长期收益预期带来压力，但我们也注意到，总体而言，Windows OEM厂商代表总体微软收入和毛利的组合不断下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Azure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google&nbsp;(GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).</p><p><blockquote>Azure已经确保Windows对微软的重要性已经下降。快速增长的云业务是所有有关微软的分析师报告的首要内容，分析师预计收入将增长40%左右。（尽管AWS和谷歌（GOOGL）云为其竞争服务提供了全部收入和营业利润，但微软没有披露Azure的性能，除了百分比增益）。</blockquote></p><p> \"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“从根本上说，之前签署的长期Azure协议的贡献不断增加、新冠疫情后持续的云迁移、微软对云垂直化的日益关注以及微软365席位的强劲增长可以维持Azure的长期持久增长。”</blockquote></p><p> There are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.</p><p><blockquote>还有一些因素也可能促进微软的增长，尤其是在预测中。对专注于医疗保健的公司Nuance的197亿美元收购预计将在今年年底前完成，微软最近透露，其基于云的收入将与Azure归入同一收入类别。</blockquote></p><p> While Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.</p><p><blockquote>虽然微软没有透露这到底意味着什么，但瑞银分析师在9月份表示，Nuance之前的披露以及他们与该公司投资者关系团队的看涨期权使他们估计Nuance约46%的收入将来自云。他们估计，如果将整个季度包括在内，这意味着微软云部门在第二财季的销售额将增加约9100万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Another bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.</p><p><blockquote>微软最受欢迎的云软件产品Office 365的价格上涨可能会在未来带来另一个上涨。微软将该产品的价格全面提高10%以上，该公司称这是“自十年前推出Office 365以来的首次实质性定价更新”，这也让分析师相信微软能够承受任何供应链压力PC市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to expect</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期待什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>分析师平均预计微软每股收益为2.08美元，高于一年前的每股1.82美元。Estimize是一个众包平台，收集华尔街分析师以及买方分析师、基金经理、公司高管、学者和其他人的预测，其贡献者预测每股收益为2.22美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue:</b> Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>分析师平均预测销售额为439.3亿美元，比一年前的371.5亿美元有所改善，此前微软预测营收为433亿美元至442亿美元。Estimize贡献者预计销售额为448.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计“智能云”部门的销售额为165.2亿美元，此前微软的预期为164亿至166.5亿美元；以云软件为重点的“生产力和业务解决方案”部门的销售额为146.7亿美元，此前预测为145亿至147.5亿美元；127.2亿美元来自“更多个人计算”，此前销售额指引为124亿至128亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&amp;P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>过去五个季度中有四个季度发布财报后，微软股价均出现下跌，但上一次跌幅仅为0.1%。该股在过去三个月上涨了8.1%，在过去一年上涨了45.2%，而标普500指数在此期间分别上涨了4.1%和31.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What analysts are saying</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.</p><p><blockquote>分析师们对微软目前的立场相当一致。根据FactSet的跟踪，36名分析师中有33名分析师将该股评级为买入，而另外3名分析师将其评级为持有。</blockquote></p><p> \"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师写道：“微软目前的交易价格是我们23年GAAP每股收益预期的27倍，代表了软件领域强劲的长期定位和合理估值的罕见组合。”摩根士丹利分析师对跑赢大盘股票的评级为331美元。</blockquote></p><p> The once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.</p><p><blockquote>曾经的担忧似乎是当前增长轨迹的持久性，这就是为什么收购Nuance和提高Office 365的定价被视为该股继续上涨的关键。</blockquote></p><p> \"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"</p><p><blockquote>Jeffries分析师写道：“整个22财年，竞争将逐渐变得更加严峻，微软Azure/Security/Teams的持久增长投资组合应该可以满足这一需求。”他们给予跑赢大盘评级，最近将目标价从345美元上调至375美元。“值得关注的关键项目是期望提高（据报道Azure High 40）、与Nuance的集成以及安全投资的增加。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.</p><p><blockquote>微软从疫情中受益，因为公司依靠云计算能力和软件在远程工作时保持团队联系。但微软牛市和Wedbush分析师Daniel Ives并不认为重返办公室是繁荣将结束的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ives在报告预览中写道：“我们认为，华尔街对在家办公周期另一端云增长放缓的看法与微软在该领域看到的交易活动相反。”Ives给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为375美元。“虽然我们在过去几年中看到了这种背景的势头，但我们相信，进入2022财年，交易流看起来将逐渐强劲（尤其是Office 365/Azure组合交易），因为我们估计微软通过渗透其无与伦比的云过渡安装基础。”</blockquote></p><p> Stifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel分析师对此表示赞同，给予买入评级和325美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> \"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“我们仍然认为，疫情正在迫使组织加快云迁移的步伐，微软仍然是这种现代化支出的主要受益者，特别是在巨大的新政势头下，因为其广泛的堆栈使其能够捕获以前无法实现的一级工作负载，”他们写道。</blockquote></p><p> The average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.</p><p><blockquote>截至周五下午，微软股票的平均目标价为335.47美元，比现行汇率高出约8.5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pc-slowdown-shouldnt-hurt-microsoft-earnings-and-heres-why-11635003215?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pc-slowdown-shouldnt-hurt-microsoft-earnings-and-heres-why-11635003215?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2177489964","content_text":"Growth from Azure and other cloud products should mask over any disappointment from supply-chain issues affecting PC sales\nMicrosoft Corp. is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday.\nThe slowdown in personal computer sales due to supply-chain issues in recent months would have hurt Microsoft Corp. in past years, but the company's pivot to cloud computing and cloud software should insulate it from any earnings fallout.\nMicrosoft is scheduled to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday afternoon, as it rolls out its new Windows 11 operating system and PC makers struggle to deliver new machines. While the Microsoft of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer would have faced a lot of Wall Street pessimism if PC shipments were mangled and a new operating system was not quickly adopted, Satya Nadella's Microsoft should be just fine.\nThat is because analysts and investors are mostly focused on Azure, Microsoft's cloud-computing answer to Amazon.com Inc.'s Amazon Web Services, as well as cloud-software offerings, decreasing the importance of Microsoft's PC business.\n\"Sustained digital transformation momentum should offset the impact from mixed PC unit shipment estimates from IDC and Gartner,\" Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a preview of the report, later adding, \"While our negative growth outlook for Windows OEM pressures our longer term earnings expectation for Microsoft, we also note Windows OEM overall represents a decreasing mix of overall Microsoft revenue and gross profit.\"\nAzure has made sure that Windows' importance to Microsoft has decreased. The fast-growing cloud business is at the top of every analyst note about Microsoft, and analysts expect revenue to grow in the mid-40% range. (Microsoft does not disclose Azure performance except for percentage gain, despite AWS and Google (GOOGL) Cloud providing full revenue and operating profits for their competitive services).\n\"Fundamentally, ramping contribution from previously signed long-term Azure deals, continued Cloud migrations post-COVID, Microsoft's intensifying focus on Cloud verticalization and strong Microsoft 365 seat growth can sustain durable longer-term Azure growth,\" the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.\nThere are factors that could add to Microsoft's growth as well, especially in the forecast. The $19.7 billion acquisition of health-care-focused company Nuance is expected to close before the end of the calendar year, and Microsoft recently disclosed that its cloud-based revenue would dump into the same revenue bucket as Azure.\nWhile Microsoft did not disclose exactly how much that would mean, UBS analysts said in September that prior Nuance disclosures and a call they had with the company's investor relations team led them to estimate that about 46% of Nuance's revenue would be cloud-based. They estimated that would mean roughly $91 million in additional sales for Microsoft's cloud division in the fiscal second quarter, if the full quarter were to be included.\nAnother bump could be coming in the future from increased prices for Microsoft's most popular cloud software offering, Office 365. Microsoft is increasing prices more than 10% across the board for the product, which the company described as \"the first substantive pricing update since we launched Office 365 a decade ago,\" which also gives analysts confidence that Microsoft can withstand any supply-chain pressures on the PC market.\nWhat to expect\nEarnings: Analysts on average expect Microsoft to report earnings of $2.08 a share, up from $1.82 a share a year ago. Contributors to Estimize -- a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others -- predict earnings of $2.22 a share.\nRevenue: Analysts on average were modeling sales of $43.93 billion, which would be an improvement from $37.15 billion a year ago, after Microsoft forecast revenue of $43.3 billion to $44.2 billion. Estimize contributors expect $44.88 billion in sales.\nAnalyst expect $16.52 billion in sales from the \"Intelligent Cloud\" segment, after Microsoft guided for $16.4 billion to $16.65 billion; $14.67 billion in sales from the cloud-software-focused \"Productivity and Business Solutions\" segment, after a forecast of $14.5 billion to $14.75 billion; and $12.72 billion from \"More Personal Computing,\" after guidance for sales of $12.4 billion to $12.8 billion.\nStock movement: Microsoft shares have declined in the session following earnings releases in four of the past five quarters, though the last decline was only by 0.1%. The stock has increased 8.1% in the past three months and 45.2% in the past year, as the S&P 500 index has grown by 4.1% and 31.6% in those periods, respectively.\nWhat analysts are saying\nAnalysts are in pretty universal agreement about Microsoft's current position. According to FactSet tracking, 33 out of 36 analysts rate the stock the equivalent of a buy, while the other three rate it as a hold.\n\"Currently trading at 27x our CY23 GAAP EPS estimates, Microsoft represents a rare combination of strong secular positioning and reasonable valuation within the software space,\" wrote the Morgan Stanley analysts, who rate the shares overweight with a price target of $331.\nThe once concern seems to be the durability of the current growth trajectory, which is why the Nuance acquisition and increased pricing of Office 365 is seen as key to the stock continuing to rise.\n\"Comps get progressively tougher throughout FY22, which should be met by Microsoft's durable growth portfolio of Azure/Security/Teams,\" wrote Jeffries analysts, who have an outperform rating and recently raised their price target to $375 from $345. \"Key items to watch are elevated expectations (Azure high 40s reported), integration with Nuance and increased security investments.\"\nMicrosoft has benefitted from the pandemic, as companies have relied on cloud-computing power and software to keep teams connected while working remotely. But Microsoft bull and Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives does not see a return to the office as a sign that the boom will end.\n\"We believe the Street's view of moderating cloud growth on the other side of this WFH cycle is contrary to the deal activity Microsoft is seeing in the field,\" Ives, with an outperform rating and $375 price target, wrote in a preview of the report. \"While we have seen the momentum of this backdrop in the last few years, we believe deal flow looks incrementally strong (Office 365/Azure combo deals in particular) heading into FY22 as we estimate that Microsoft is still only 35% through penetrating its unparalleled installed base on the cloud transition.\"\nStifel analysts, with a buy rating and $325 price target, concurred.\n\"We continue to believe that the pandemic is forcing organizations to accelerate the pace of their cloud migrations and that Microsoft remains a key beneficiary of this modernization spend, especially around large new deal momentum, as its broad stack enables it to capture Tier 1 workloads previously out of reach,\" they wrote.\nThe average price target on Microsoft stock as of Friday afternoon was $335.47, roughly 8.5% higher than the going rate.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827258382,"gmtCreate":1634483961170,"gmtModify":1634483961404,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827258382","repostId":"1132582737","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132582737","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634311475,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132582737?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通看好亚马逊股票：29%的上涨潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132582737","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&","content":"<p>Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&amp;P 500 since its disappointing Q2 earnings day. But JPMorgan is optimistic and sees upside ahead.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股票已成为其自身成功的受害者：自令人失望的第二季度财报日以来，这家电子商务巨头的股价一直落后于标普500。但摩根大通持乐观态度，并看到了未来的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Since the release of Amazon’s most recent earnings report, investors have watched shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant tank by 11%. Amazon stock&nbsp;underperformed an already weak S&amp;P 500 by three percentage points over the period, leaving some to question: is AMZN still a good investment?</p><p><blockquote>自亚马逊最新财报发布以来，投资者关注这家云和电子商务巨头的股价下跌了11%。在此期间，亚马逊股票的表现落后于本已疲软的标普500三个百分点，这让一些人质疑：亚马逊仍然是一项好的投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> According to experts at JPMorgan (JPM), the answer is yes. Today, the Amazon Maven presents the main reasons why five-star&nbsp;rated&nbsp;analyst Doug Anmuth believes that Amazon stock is about to surge, producing an estimated 29% in gains through 2022.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通（JPM）专家表示，答案是肯定的。今天，亚马逊专家介绍了五星级分析师Doug Anmuth认为亚马逊股票即将飙升的主要原因，预计到2022年将上涨29%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8e5f4ca5aa3dba7bef61858521bd17\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: J.P. Morgan offices in Hong Kong.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：摩根大通香港办事处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Getting back on track</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回到正轨</b></blockquote></p><p> As the&nbsp;Amazon Maven mentioned&nbsp;recently, the impact of the pandemic on shopping habits led analysts to overestimate Amazon’s revenues for the current year. This is the very first reason why JPMorgan&nbsp;believes&nbsp;that AMZN will get a green light to climb again: “[the stock is heading] closer to the last quarter of difficult COVID-19 comps in the first quarter of 2022\", which should help to reset sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>正如亚马逊专家最近提到的，疫情对购物习惯的影响导致分析师高估了亚马逊今年的收入。这就是摩根大通认为AMZN将获得再次攀升的第一个原因：“[该股正在]接近2022年第一季度困难的COVID-19比较的最后一个季度”，这应该有助于重置情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Once 2020 results are left in the rearview mirror, the e-commerce company will face more realistic, non-pandemic-inflated projections. As mentioned by Mr. Anmuth himself, \"further downward revisions to 2022 profit estimates would help lower the bar and potentially create more of a clearing event”.</p><p><blockquote>一旦2020年的业绩成为过去，这家电子商务公司将面临更现实、非疫情夸大的预测。正如Anmuth先生本人所提到的，“进一步下调2022年利润预期将有助于降低门槛，并可能引发更多清算事件”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Holiday upside</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假日上行空间</b></blockquote></p><p> Another reason why Mr. Anmuth believes Amazon stock will head higher is the beginning of the holiday season. Since the market has been so cautious towards AMZN lately, the stock has been trading at lower multiples than would otherwise be considered reasonable. The holidays, on the other hand, could be the bullish catalyst that investors need to own the stock again.</p><p><blockquote>安穆斯认为亚马逊股价将走高的另一个原因是假期的开始。由于市场最近对亚马逊非常谨慎，该股的市盈率一直低于合理的市盈率。另一方面，假期可能是投资者需要再次持有该股的看涨催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, there is the potential for an increase in Prime subscription price in 2022. Considering an estimated 150 million US Prime members in 2021, a $20 dollar hike in annual fee would lead to an extra $3 billion heading towards Amazon’s coffers.</p><p><blockquote>最后，2022年Prime订阅价格有可能上涨。考虑到2021年估计有1.5亿美国Prime会员，年费上涨20美元将导致亚马逊的金库额外增加30亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first glance, the figure may not seem like much, given Amazon’s revenues of $380 billion in 2020. However, keep in mind that nearly all the price increase would flow cleanly into Amazon’s operating income. On a 2020 basis, this would represent growth of nearly 15% in pre-tax profits.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，考虑到亚马逊2020年的收入为3800亿美元，这个数字似乎并不多。然而，请记住，几乎所有的价格上涨都会干净地流入亚马逊的营业收入。以2020年为基础，这将意味着税前利润增长近15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What do other experts say?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他专家怎么说？</b></blockquote></p><p> Other reports published recently also support the bullish thesis. Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI&nbsp;talked&nbsp;to 15 industry experts, including former Amazon employees, during the research firm’s Amazon Day Symposium. The analyst liked what he saw and issued a hefty $4,700 target price.</p><p><blockquote>最近发表的其他报告也支持看涨论点。Evercore ISI的Mark Mahaney在该研究公司的亚马逊日研讨会上与15名行业专家进行了交谈，其中包括前亚马逊员工。这位分析师很喜欢他所看到的，并给出了4,700美元的高额目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Wolfe Research’s Deepak Mathivanan, on the other hand,lowered&nbsp;his price target on AMZN modestly to $3,850 from $3,900, despite maintaining an outperform rating. Sitting closer to the consensus price target is Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan, who is bullish and&nbsp;believes&nbsp;that AMZN shares are worth $4,250.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，Wolfe Research的Deepak Mathivanan将AMZN的目标价从3,900美元小幅下调至3,850美元，尽管维持跑赢大盘评级。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的埃里克·谢里丹(Eric Sheridan)更接近共识目标价，他看好AMZN股票价值4,250美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通看好亚马逊股票：29%的上涨潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan On Amazon Stock: 29% Upside Potential<blockquote>摩根大通看好亚马逊股票：29%的上涨潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-15 23:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&amp;P 500 since its disappointing Q2 earnings day. But JPMorgan is optimistic and sees upside ahead.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股票已成为其自身成功的受害者：自令人失望的第二季度财报日以来，这家电子商务巨头的股价一直落后于标普500。但摩根大通持乐观态度，并看到了未来的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Since the release of Amazon’s most recent earnings report, investors have watched shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant tank by 11%. Amazon stock&nbsp;underperformed an already weak S&amp;P 500 by three percentage points over the period, leaving some to question: is AMZN still a good investment?</p><p><blockquote>自亚马逊最新财报发布以来，投资者关注这家云和电子商务巨头的股价下跌了11%。在此期间，亚马逊股票的表现落后于本已疲软的标普500三个百分点，这让一些人质疑：亚马逊仍然是一项好的投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> According to experts at JPMorgan (JPM), the answer is yes. Today, the Amazon Maven presents the main reasons why five-star&nbsp;rated&nbsp;analyst Doug Anmuth believes that Amazon stock is about to surge, producing an estimated 29% in gains through 2022.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通（JPM）专家表示，答案是肯定的。今天，亚马逊专家介绍了五星级分析师Doug Anmuth认为亚马逊股票即将飙升的主要原因，预计到2022年将上涨29%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8e5f4ca5aa3dba7bef61858521bd17\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: J.P. Morgan offices in Hong Kong.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：摩根大通香港办事处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Getting back on track</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回到正轨</b></blockquote></p><p> As the&nbsp;Amazon Maven mentioned&nbsp;recently, the impact of the pandemic on shopping habits led analysts to overestimate Amazon’s revenues for the current year. This is the very first reason why JPMorgan&nbsp;believes&nbsp;that AMZN will get a green light to climb again: “[the stock is heading] closer to the last quarter of difficult COVID-19 comps in the first quarter of 2022\", which should help to reset sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>正如亚马逊专家最近提到的，疫情对购物习惯的影响导致分析师高估了亚马逊今年的收入。这就是摩根大通认为AMZN将获得再次攀升的第一个原因：“[该股正在]接近2022年第一季度困难的COVID-19比较的最后一个季度”，这应该有助于重置情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Once 2020 results are left in the rearview mirror, the e-commerce company will face more realistic, non-pandemic-inflated projections. As mentioned by Mr. Anmuth himself, \"further downward revisions to 2022 profit estimates would help lower the bar and potentially create more of a clearing event”.</p><p><blockquote>一旦2020年的业绩成为过去，这家电子商务公司将面临更现实、非疫情夸大的预测。正如Anmuth先生本人所提到的，“进一步下调2022年利润预期将有助于降低门槛，并可能引发更多清算事件”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Holiday upside</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假日上行空间</b></blockquote></p><p> Another reason why Mr. Anmuth believes Amazon stock will head higher is the beginning of the holiday season. Since the market has been so cautious towards AMZN lately, the stock has been trading at lower multiples than would otherwise be considered reasonable. The holidays, on the other hand, could be the bullish catalyst that investors need to own the stock again.</p><p><blockquote>安穆斯认为亚马逊股价将走高的另一个原因是假期的开始。由于市场最近对亚马逊非常谨慎，该股的市盈率一直低于合理的市盈率。另一方面，假期可能是投资者需要再次持有该股的看涨催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, there is the potential for an increase in Prime subscription price in 2022. Considering an estimated 150 million US Prime members in 2021, a $20 dollar hike in annual fee would lead to an extra $3 billion heading towards Amazon’s coffers.</p><p><blockquote>最后，2022年Prime订阅价格有可能上涨。考虑到2021年估计有1.5亿美国Prime会员，年费上涨20美元将导致亚马逊的金库额外增加30亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first glance, the figure may not seem like much, given Amazon’s revenues of $380 billion in 2020. However, keep in mind that nearly all the price increase would flow cleanly into Amazon’s operating income. On a 2020 basis, this would represent growth of nearly 15% in pre-tax profits.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，考虑到亚马逊2020年的收入为3800亿美元，这个数字似乎并不多。然而，请记住，几乎所有的价格上涨都会干净地流入亚马逊的营业收入。以2020年为基础，这将意味着税前利润增长近15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What do other experts say?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他专家怎么说？</b></blockquote></p><p> Other reports published recently also support the bullish thesis. Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI&nbsp;talked&nbsp;to 15 industry experts, including former Amazon employees, during the research firm’s Amazon Day Symposium. The analyst liked what he saw and issued a hefty $4,700 target price.</p><p><blockquote>最近发表的其他报告也支持看涨论点。Evercore ISI的Mark Mahaney在该研究公司的亚马逊日研讨会上与15名行业专家进行了交谈，其中包括前亚马逊员工。这位分析师很喜欢他所看到的，并给出了4,700美元的高额目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Wolfe Research’s Deepak Mathivanan, on the other hand,lowered&nbsp;his price target on AMZN modestly to $3,850 from $3,900, despite maintaining an outperform rating. Sitting closer to the consensus price target is Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan, who is bullish and&nbsp;believes&nbsp;that AMZN shares are worth $4,250.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，Wolfe Research的Deepak Mathivanan将AMZN的目标价从3,900美元小幅下调至3,850美元，尽管维持跑赢大盘评级。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的埃里克·谢里丹(Eric Sheridan)更接近共识目标价，他看好AMZN股票价值4,250美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/jpmorgan-on-amazon-stock-29-upside-potential\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/news/jpmorgan-on-amazon-stock-29-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132582737","content_text":"Amazon stock has fallen victim of its own success: shares of the e-commerce giant have lagged the S&P 500 since its disappointing Q2 earnings day. But JPMorgan is optimistic and sees upside ahead.\nSince the release of Amazon’s most recent earnings report, investors have watched shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant tank by 11%. Amazon stock underperformed an already weak S&P 500 by three percentage points over the period, leaving some to question: is AMZN still a good investment?\nAccording to experts at JPMorgan (JPM), the answer is yes. Today, the Amazon Maven presents the main reasons why five-star rated analyst Doug Anmuth believes that Amazon stock is about to surge, producing an estimated 29% in gains through 2022.\nFigure 1: J.P. Morgan offices in Hong Kong.\nGetting back on track\nAs the Amazon Maven mentioned recently, the impact of the pandemic on shopping habits led analysts to overestimate Amazon’s revenues for the current year. This is the very first reason why JPMorgan believes that AMZN will get a green light to climb again: “[the stock is heading] closer to the last quarter of difficult COVID-19 comps in the first quarter of 2022\", which should help to reset sentiment.\nOnce 2020 results are left in the rearview mirror, the e-commerce company will face more realistic, non-pandemic-inflated projections. As mentioned by Mr. Anmuth himself, \"further downward revisions to 2022 profit estimates would help lower the bar and potentially create more of a clearing event”.\nHoliday upside\nAnother reason why Mr. Anmuth believes Amazon stock will head higher is the beginning of the holiday season. Since the market has been so cautious towards AMZN lately, the stock has been trading at lower multiples than would otherwise be considered reasonable. The holidays, on the other hand, could be the bullish catalyst that investors need to own the stock again.\nLastly, there is the potential for an increase in Prime subscription price in 2022. Considering an estimated 150 million US Prime members in 2021, a $20 dollar hike in annual fee would lead to an extra $3 billion heading towards Amazon’s coffers.\nAt first glance, the figure may not seem like much, given Amazon’s revenues of $380 billion in 2020. However, keep in mind that nearly all the price increase would flow cleanly into Amazon’s operating income. On a 2020 basis, this would represent growth of nearly 15% in pre-tax profits.\nWhat do other experts say?\nOther reports published recently also support the bullish thesis. Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI talked to 15 industry experts, including former Amazon employees, during the research firm’s Amazon Day Symposium. The analyst liked what he saw and issued a hefty $4,700 target price.\nWolfe Research’s Deepak Mathivanan, on the other hand,lowered his price target on AMZN modestly to $3,850 from $3,900, despite maintaining an outperform rating. Sitting closer to the consensus price target is Goldman Sachs’ Eric Sheridan, who is bullish and believes that AMZN shares are worth $4,250.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868911172,"gmtCreate":1632572595596,"gmtModify":1632656316042,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868911172","repostId":"1117076176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809299576,"gmtCreate":1627370583695,"gmtModify":1633765647872,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809299576","repostId":"2154596195","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176166870,"gmtCreate":1626872440590,"gmtModify":1633770255478,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176166870","repostId":"1199453596","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199453596","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626868481,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199453596?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 19:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199453596","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Futures mixed.\nTreasury yields extend gains.\nVerizon Communications Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Co","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Futures&nbsp;mixed.</li>  <li>Treasury yields extend gains.</li>  <li>Verizon Communications Inc., Johnson &amp; Johnson, Coca-Cola Co and Anthem, Inc. posted earnings results in premarket.</li>  <li>Bitcoin Storms Back Over $31,000.</li> </ul> (July&nbsp;21)&nbsp;US equity futures, European bourses and Treasury yields rose for a second day clawing back much of the week's losses that were sparked by fears over spiking COVID-19 cases, as well as the \"peak growth\" and \"peak inflation\" narratives, as bargain hunters helped the S&amp;P 500 to all but erase Monday’s slide in a rally led by cyclicals such as industrial stocks even though the dollar notched further gains on concerns over the impact of a fast-spreading coronavirus variant.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期货涨跌互现。</li><li>美国国债收益率扩大涨幅。</li><li>威瑞森通信公司、强生公司、可口可乐公司和Anthem公司在盘前公布了收益结果。</li><li>比特币抢回了31000多美元。</li></ul>（7月21日）美国股指期货、欧洲股市和美国国债收益率连续第二天上涨，收复了本周的大部分跌幅，这些跌幅是由对新冠肺炎病例激增以及“增长峰值”和“通胀峰值”的担忧引发的，因为逢低买入者帮助标普500几乎抹去了周一在工业股等周期性股票引领的反弹中的跌势，尽管美元因对快速传播的冠状病毒变种影响的担忧而进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>“The correction we had is healthy to clear some of the excess out of the market and to get better balancing between growth and value,</b>”&nbsp;Katie Koch, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s co-head of fundamental equity, said on Bloomberg Television. “From a long-term perspective we are really still very constructive on equity markets, so we’d encourage clients to be overweight risk assets.”</p><p><blockquote><b>“我们进行的调整是健康的，可以清除市场上的一些过剩产品，并在增长和价值之间获得更好的平衡，</b>”高盛资产管理公司基本面股票联席主管凯蒂·科赫在彭博电视台表示。“从长期角度来看，我们对股市仍然非常有建设性，因此我们鼓励客户成为跑赢大盘风险资产。”</blockquote></p><p> At 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 77 points, or 0.22%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were ip 2.75&nbsp;points, or 0.06% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 45.25 points, or 0.31%.&nbsp;Bitcoin recovered from its drop below 30,000 jumping back over $31,000 ahead of a conference that sees Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey and Cathie Woodspeak on cryptos.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7:55，道指E-minis上涨77点，即0.22%，标普500 E-minis上涨2.75点，即0.06%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌45.25点，即0.31%。比特币在Elon Musk、Jack Dorsey和Cathie Woodspeak讨论加密货币的会议之前，股价跌破30,000美元，反弹至31,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc4ef529489e25f7c52e4a3f54940d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是当今美国一些最大的推动者：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cryptocurrency-related stocks jump in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading, tracking a rebound for Bitcoin back above the $30,000 level. Marathon Digital (MARA) rises 6.9% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) gains 6.3%.</li>  <li>Moderna (MRNA) slips 1.5% ahead of its inclusion into the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>  <li>Netflix (NFLX) gains 0.3% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading with most analysts maintaining a positive view on the stock despite second-quarter results and forecast for subscriber growth that came in below expectations.</li>  <li>Next shares surge as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after the U.K. retailer raised its profit forecast again as shoppers returned to stores after the end of lockdowns. RBC sees consensus estimates being increased by mid-to-high single digits.</li>  <li>Thule rises as much as 11% in its steepest intraday gain since Feb. 10 as the maker of bike racks and bags beats the highest profit estimate in the consensus range.</li>  <li>ASML shares rise as much as 4.6%, the most intraday since May 5, after the company reported record orders that Oddo BHF (outperform) says were “slightly above expectations.”</li>  <li>SAP’s shares fall more than 5.1% after earnings, with analysts underwhelmed by the software giant’s slightly raised outlook for cloud revenue.</li>  <li>Ubisoft shares drop as much as 4.3% to a two-month low after giving a sales update. Jefferies notes the video game maker’s guidance remains a wide range.</li>  <li>Daimler shares fall as much as 4% in Frankfurt after lowering the sales outlook for its Mercedes-Benz division amid a chip shortage. Warburg says the reduction “is clearly negative” while noting that the margin target corridor for Mercedes-Benz Cars and Vans was confirmed.</li> </ul> <b>Financial Result&nbsp;posted&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>加密货币相关股票在盘前交易中上涨，追随比特币反弹至30,000美元上方。Marathon Digital(MARA)上涨6.9%，Riot区块链(RIOT)上涨6.3%。</li><li>Moderna(MRNA)在纳入标普500指数之前下跌1.5%。</li><li>Netflix(NFLX)在盘前交易中上涨0.3%，尽管第二季度业绩和用户增长预测低于预期，但大多数分析师仍对该股保持积极看法。</li><li>随着封锁结束后购物者重返商店，这家英国零售商再次上调了利润预期，Next股价飙升11%，为2020年4月以来的最高水平。加拿大皇家银行(RBC)预计共识预期将增加中高个位数。</li><li>Thule股价上涨11%，创2月10日以来最大盘中涨幅，这家自行车架和包袋制造商的利润超出了市场普遍预期的最高利润预期。</li><li>ASML股价上涨4.6%，为5月5日以来最大盘中涨幅，此前该公司报告订单创纪录，Oddo BHF（跑赢大盘）称“略高于预期”。</li><li>SAP公布财报后股价下跌超过5.1%，分析师对这家软件巨头略微上调的云收入前景印象不深。</li><li>育碧发布销售更新后，股价下跌4.3%，至两个月低点。杰富瑞指出，这家视频游戏制造商的指导范围仍然很广。</li><li>由于芯片短缺，戴姆勒下调了梅赛德斯-奔驰部门的销售前景，该公司股价在法兰克福下跌4%。华宝表示，这一下降“显然是负面的”，同时指出梅赛德斯-奔驰轿车和货车的利润率目标走廊已得到确认。</li></ul><b>盘前公布的财务业绩：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;ASML</b>-ASML reports €4.0 billion net sales and €1.0 billion net income in Q2 2021 Net sales now expected to grow by around 35% in 2021.Q2 net sales of €4.0 billion, gross margin of 50.9%, net income of €1.0 billion; Q2 net bookings of €8.3 billion; ASML expects Q3 2021 net sales between €5.2 billion and €5.4 billion and a gross margin between 51% and 52%; ASML announces a new share buyback program of up to €9 billion to be executed by December 31, 2023.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）ASML</b>-ASML报告2021年第二季度净销售额为40亿欧元，净利润为10亿欧元。目前预计2021年净销售额将增长35%左右。第二季度净销售额为40亿欧元，毛利率为50.9%，净利润为10亿欧元；第二季度净预订量为83亿欧元；ASML预计2021年第三季度净销售额在52亿欧元至54亿欧元之间，毛利率在51%至52%之间；ASML宣布一项高达90亿欧元的新股票回购计划，将于2023年12月31日执行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Coca-Cola</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;Coca-Cola rallied almost 2% in premarket trading following an upbeat quarter.&nbsp;Coca-Cola came in 12 cents above estimates withadjusted quarterly earnings of 68 cents per share, with revenue beating forecasts as venues like stadiums and movie theaters reopened.&nbsp;Coca-Cola also raised its full-year forecast.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）可口可乐</b>-可口可乐在经历了一个乐观的季度后，在盘前交易中上涨了近2%。可口可乐的调整后季度收益为每股68美分，比预期高出12美分，随着体育场和电影院等场所重新开放，收入超出预期。可口可乐还上调了全年预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;</b><b>Verizon</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;Verizon beats on Q2 earnings, issues robust FY21 outlook. Verizon Communications Inc reported second-quarter FY21 operating revenue growth of 10.9% year-on-year to $33.8 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $32.68 billion. Wireless revenue growth, strong Fios and Verizon Media results, and increased wireless equipment revenue drove the revenue numbers.</p><p><blockquote><b>3) </b><b>Verizon</b>-Verizon第二季度盈利好于预期，发布了强劲的2021财年前景。Verizon Communications Inc公布2021财年第二季度营业收入同比增长10.9%至338亿美元，超出分析师预期的326.8亿美元。无线收入增长、强劲的Fios和Verizon Media业绩以及无线设备收入的增加推动了收入数字。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson</b> - Johnson &amp; Johnson Q2 earnings beat expectations; raises FY21 outlook, sees $2.5B sales from COVID vaccine. Johnson &amp; Johnson reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $2.48 per share, almost 50% higher than the $1.67 posted a year ago and better than the consensus of $2.27. Net sales increased 27% Y/Y to $23.3 billion, and ahead of the $22.1 billion consensus.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）强生</b>-强生Q2盈利超预期；上调2021财年展望，预计COVID疫苗销售额为2.5 B美元。强生公司报告第二季度调整后每股收益为2.48美元，比一年前的1.67美元高出近50%，也好于市场普遍预期的2.27美元。净销售额同比增长27%至233亿美元，高于市场预期的221亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury&nbsp;10-year yields rose further above 1.2% though it remains to be seen if the recovery in yields has legs amid lingering concerns about the delta virus variant that led traders to&nbsp;pare back&nbsp;bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Treasuries bear-steepened with long-end yields cheaper by 3bp-4bp as U.S. stock futures rise to weekly highs, with focus turning to corporate earnings. Treasury 10-year yields 1.243%, were cheaper by ~2bp on the day and mildly underperforming bunds and gilts; long-end-led losses steepen 2s10s and 5s30s by ~2bp. The Asian session produced gains for Treasuries, led by Aussie bonds, that began to erode during European morning helped by 10-year futures block sale. U.S. session’s main event is 20-year bond reopening.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率进一步升至1.2%以上，但由于对delta病毒变种的担忧挥之不去，导致交易员削减了对美联储加息的押注，收益率的复苏是否持续还有待观察。随着美国股指期货升至周高点，美国国债熊市加剧，长期收益率下跌3bp-4bp，焦点转向企业盈利。10年期国债收益率为1.243%，当日下跌约2个基点，表现略逊于德国国债和英国国债；长端led损耗使2s10s和5s30s陡峭约2bp。亚洲时段，以澳大利亚债券为首的美国国债上涨，但在10年期期货大宗销售的帮助下，美国国债在欧洲早盘开始下跌。美国时段的主要事件是20年期债券重新开放。</blockquote></p><p> In FX, the dollar index edged up 0.07% to 93.030, with the euro down 0.07% to $1.1771. The Bloomberg dollar index advanced to its highest since early April and risk-sensitive currencies rallied as a slew of corporate earnings took the focus off the coronavirus. The Aussie headed for its longest run of losses since September amid stricter virus curbs and a weaker-than-expected retail sales print. The Norwegian krone and New Zealand dollar led G-10 gains while the yen underperformed.</p><p><blockquote>外汇方面，美元指数小幅上涨0.07%至93.030，欧元指数下跌0.07%至1.1771美元。彭博美元指数升至4月初以来的最高水平，随着一系列企业财报将人们的注意力从冠状病毒上转移开来，对风险敏感的货币上涨。由于更严格的病毒限制措施和弱于预期的零售销售数据，澳元将迎来自9月份以来最长的跌幅。挪威克朗和新西兰元领涨G-10，而日元表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> In commodities, Brent crude oil climbed back above $70 a barrel. The precious metals complex moved in tandem with yields, with spot gold in a tight range just above USD 1,800/oz (1,803-13/oz) and spot silver north of USD 25/oz (24.76-25.12/oz). Base metals have nursed overnight losses as the risk appetite across the markets offers base metals with some solace from China’s NDRC resuming its jawboning.<b>Chinese state media noted that China is to auction 30k tonnes of copper, 90k tonnes of aluminium, and 50k tonnes of zinc from state reserves later this month</b>, whilst the NDRC urged stepping up supervision on commodity prices and ensure overall price level targets this year.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品方面，布伦特原油回升至每桶70美元上方。贵金属综合体与收益率同步波动，现货黄金窄幅波动，略高于1800美元/盎司（1803-13美元/盎司），现货白银高于25美元/盎司（24.76-25.12美元/盎司）。基本金属隔夜下跌，因为整个市场的风险偏好为基本金属提供了一些安慰，中国国家发改委恢复了其言论。<b>中国官方媒体指出，中国将于本月晚些时候拍卖国家储备中的3万吨铜、9万吨铝和5万吨锌</b>同时，国家发改委敦促加强大宗商品价格监管，确保今年物价总水平目标。</blockquote></p><p> On day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.</p><p><blockquote>在跌破30,000美元（许多人认为必须守住的关键支撑位）后的第二天，随着比特币飙升并回到31,000美元上方，它就做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 19:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Futures&nbsp;mixed.</li>  <li>Treasury yields extend gains.</li>  <li>Verizon Communications Inc., Johnson &amp; Johnson, Coca-Cola Co and Anthem, Inc. posted earnings results in premarket.</li>  <li>Bitcoin Storms Back Over $31,000.</li> </ul> (July&nbsp;21)&nbsp;US equity futures, European bourses and Treasury yields rose for a second day clawing back much of the week's losses that were sparked by fears over spiking COVID-19 cases, as well as the \"peak growth\" and \"peak inflation\" narratives, as bargain hunters helped the S&amp;P 500 to all but erase Monday’s slide in a rally led by cyclicals such as industrial stocks even though the dollar notched further gains on concerns over the impact of a fast-spreading coronavirus variant.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期货涨跌互现。</li><li>美国国债收益率扩大涨幅。</li><li>威瑞森通信公司、强生公司、可口可乐公司和Anthem公司在盘前公布了收益结果。</li><li>比特币抢回了31000多美元。</li></ul>（7月21日）美国股指期货、欧洲股市和美国国债收益率连续第二天上涨，收复了本周的大部分跌幅，这些跌幅是由对新冠肺炎病例激增以及“增长峰值”和“通胀峰值”的担忧引发的，因为逢低买入者帮助标普500几乎抹去了周一在工业股等周期性股票引领的反弹中的跌势，尽管美元因对快速传播的冠状病毒变种影响的担忧而进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>“The correction we had is healthy to clear some of the excess out of the market and to get better balancing between growth and value,</b>”&nbsp;Katie Koch, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s co-head of fundamental equity, said on Bloomberg Television. “From a long-term perspective we are really still very constructive on equity markets, so we’d encourage clients to be overweight risk assets.”</p><p><blockquote><b>“我们进行的调整是健康的，可以清除市场上的一些过剩产品，并在增长和价值之间获得更好的平衡，</b>”高盛资产管理公司基本面股票联席主管凯蒂·科赫在彭博电视台表示。“从长期角度来看，我们对股市仍然非常有建设性，因此我们鼓励客户成为跑赢大盘风险资产。”</blockquote></p><p> At 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 77 points, or 0.22%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were ip 2.75&nbsp;points, or 0.06% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 45.25 points, or 0.31%.&nbsp;Bitcoin recovered from its drop below 30,000 jumping back over $31,000 ahead of a conference that sees Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey and Cathie Woodspeak on cryptos.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7:55，道指E-minis上涨77点，即0.22%，标普500 E-minis上涨2.75点，即0.06%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌45.25点，即0.31%。比特币在Elon Musk、Jack Dorsey和Cathie Woodspeak讨论加密货币的会议之前，股价跌破30,000美元，反弹至31,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc4ef529489e25f7c52e4a3f54940d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是当今美国一些最大的推动者：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cryptocurrency-related stocks jump in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading, tracking a rebound for Bitcoin back above the $30,000 level. Marathon Digital (MARA) rises 6.9% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) gains 6.3%.</li>  <li>Moderna (MRNA) slips 1.5% ahead of its inclusion into the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>  <li>Netflix (NFLX) gains 0.3% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading with most analysts maintaining a positive view on the stock despite second-quarter results and forecast for subscriber growth that came in below expectations.</li>  <li>Next shares surge as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after the U.K. retailer raised its profit forecast again as shoppers returned to stores after the end of lockdowns. RBC sees consensus estimates being increased by mid-to-high single digits.</li>  <li>Thule rises as much as 11% in its steepest intraday gain since Feb. 10 as the maker of bike racks and bags beats the highest profit estimate in the consensus range.</li>  <li>ASML shares rise as much as 4.6%, the most intraday since May 5, after the company reported record orders that Oddo BHF (outperform) says were “slightly above expectations.”</li>  <li>SAP’s shares fall more than 5.1% after earnings, with analysts underwhelmed by the software giant’s slightly raised outlook for cloud revenue.</li>  <li>Ubisoft shares drop as much as 4.3% to a two-month low after giving a sales update. Jefferies notes the video game maker’s guidance remains a wide range.</li>  <li>Daimler shares fall as much as 4% in Frankfurt after lowering the sales outlook for its Mercedes-Benz division amid a chip shortage. Warburg says the reduction “is clearly negative” while noting that the margin target corridor for Mercedes-Benz Cars and Vans was confirmed.</li> </ul> <b>Financial Result&nbsp;posted&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>加密货币相关股票在盘前交易中上涨，追随比特币反弹至30,000美元上方。Marathon Digital(MARA)上涨6.9%，Riot区块链(RIOT)上涨6.3%。</li><li>Moderna(MRNA)在纳入标普500指数之前下跌1.5%。</li><li>Netflix(NFLX)在盘前交易中上涨0.3%，尽管第二季度业绩和用户增长预测低于预期，但大多数分析师仍对该股保持积极看法。</li><li>随着封锁结束后购物者重返商店，这家英国零售商再次上调了利润预期，Next股价飙升11%，为2020年4月以来的最高水平。加拿大皇家银行(RBC)预计共识预期将增加中高个位数。</li><li>Thule股价上涨11%，创2月10日以来最大盘中涨幅，这家自行车架和包袋制造商的利润超出了市场普遍预期的最高利润预期。</li><li>ASML股价上涨4.6%，为5月5日以来最大盘中涨幅，此前该公司报告订单创纪录，Oddo BHF（跑赢大盘）称“略高于预期”。</li><li>SAP公布财报后股价下跌超过5.1%，分析师对这家软件巨头略微上调的云收入前景印象不深。</li><li>育碧发布销售更新后，股价下跌4.3%，至两个月低点。杰富瑞指出，这家视频游戏制造商的指导范围仍然很广。</li><li>由于芯片短缺，戴姆勒下调了梅赛德斯-奔驰部门的销售前景，该公司股价在法兰克福下跌4%。华宝表示，这一下降“显然是负面的”，同时指出梅赛德斯-奔驰轿车和货车的利润率目标走廊已得到确认。</li></ul><b>盘前公布的财务业绩：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;ASML</b>-ASML reports €4.0 billion net sales and €1.0 billion net income in Q2 2021 Net sales now expected to grow by around 35% in 2021.Q2 net sales of €4.0 billion, gross margin of 50.9%, net income of €1.0 billion; Q2 net bookings of €8.3 billion; ASML expects Q3 2021 net sales between €5.2 billion and €5.4 billion and a gross margin between 51% and 52%; ASML announces a new share buyback program of up to €9 billion to be executed by December 31, 2023.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）ASML</b>-ASML报告2021年第二季度净销售额为40亿欧元，净利润为10亿欧元。目前预计2021年净销售额将增长35%左右。第二季度净销售额为40亿欧元，毛利率为50.9%，净利润为10亿欧元；第二季度净预订量为83亿欧元；ASML预计2021年第三季度净销售额在52亿欧元至54亿欧元之间，毛利率在51%至52%之间；ASML宣布一项高达90亿欧元的新股票回购计划，将于2023年12月31日执行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Coca-Cola</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;Coca-Cola rallied almost 2% in premarket trading following an upbeat quarter.&nbsp;Coca-Cola came in 12 cents above estimates withadjusted quarterly earnings of 68 cents per share, with revenue beating forecasts as venues like stadiums and movie theaters reopened.&nbsp;Coca-Cola also raised its full-year forecast.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）可口可乐</b>-可口可乐在经历了一个乐观的季度后，在盘前交易中上涨了近2%。可口可乐的调整后季度收益为每股68美分，比预期高出12美分，随着体育场和电影院等场所重新开放，收入超出预期。可口可乐还上调了全年预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;</b><b>Verizon</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;Verizon beats on Q2 earnings, issues robust FY21 outlook. Verizon Communications Inc reported second-quarter FY21 operating revenue growth of 10.9% year-on-year to $33.8 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $32.68 billion. Wireless revenue growth, strong Fios and Verizon Media results, and increased wireless equipment revenue drove the revenue numbers.</p><p><blockquote><b>3) </b><b>Verizon</b>-Verizon第二季度盈利好于预期，发布了强劲的2021财年前景。Verizon Communications Inc公布2021财年第二季度营业收入同比增长10.9%至338亿美元，超出分析师预期的326.8亿美元。无线收入增长、强劲的Fios和Verizon Media业绩以及无线设备收入的增加推动了收入数字。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson</b> - Johnson &amp; Johnson Q2 earnings beat expectations; raises FY21 outlook, sees $2.5B sales from COVID vaccine. Johnson &amp; Johnson reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $2.48 per share, almost 50% higher than the $1.67 posted a year ago and better than the consensus of $2.27. Net sales increased 27% Y/Y to $23.3 billion, and ahead of the $22.1 billion consensus.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）强生</b>-强生Q2盈利超预期；上调2021财年展望，预计COVID疫苗销售额为2.5 B美元。强生公司报告第二季度调整后每股收益为2.48美元，比一年前的1.67美元高出近50%，也好于市场普遍预期的2.27美元。净销售额同比增长27%至233亿美元，高于市场预期的221亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury&nbsp;10-year yields rose further above 1.2% though it remains to be seen if the recovery in yields has legs amid lingering concerns about the delta virus variant that led traders to&nbsp;pare back&nbsp;bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Treasuries bear-steepened with long-end yields cheaper by 3bp-4bp as U.S. stock futures rise to weekly highs, with focus turning to corporate earnings. Treasury 10-year yields 1.243%, were cheaper by ~2bp on the day and mildly underperforming bunds and gilts; long-end-led losses steepen 2s10s and 5s30s by ~2bp. The Asian session produced gains for Treasuries, led by Aussie bonds, that began to erode during European morning helped by 10-year futures block sale. U.S. session’s main event is 20-year bond reopening.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率进一步升至1.2%以上，但由于对delta病毒变种的担忧挥之不去，导致交易员削减了对美联储加息的押注，收益率的复苏是否持续还有待观察。随着美国股指期货升至周高点，美国国债熊市加剧，长期收益率下跌3bp-4bp，焦点转向企业盈利。10年期国债收益率为1.243%，当日下跌约2个基点，表现略逊于德国国债和英国国债；长端led损耗使2s10s和5s30s陡峭约2bp。亚洲时段，以澳大利亚债券为首的美国国债上涨，但在10年期期货大宗销售的帮助下，美国国债在欧洲早盘开始下跌。美国时段的主要事件是20年期债券重新开放。</blockquote></p><p> In FX, the dollar index edged up 0.07% to 93.030, with the euro down 0.07% to $1.1771. The Bloomberg dollar index advanced to its highest since early April and risk-sensitive currencies rallied as a slew of corporate earnings took the focus off the coronavirus. The Aussie headed for its longest run of losses since September amid stricter virus curbs and a weaker-than-expected retail sales print. The Norwegian krone and New Zealand dollar led G-10 gains while the yen underperformed.</p><p><blockquote>外汇方面，美元指数小幅上涨0.07%至93.030，欧元指数下跌0.07%至1.1771美元。彭博美元指数升至4月初以来的最高水平，随着一系列企业财报将人们的注意力从冠状病毒上转移开来，对风险敏感的货币上涨。由于更严格的病毒限制措施和弱于预期的零售销售数据，澳元将迎来自9月份以来最长的跌幅。挪威克朗和新西兰元领涨G-10，而日元表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> In commodities, Brent crude oil climbed back above $70 a barrel. The precious metals complex moved in tandem with yields, with spot gold in a tight range just above USD 1,800/oz (1,803-13/oz) and spot silver north of USD 25/oz (24.76-25.12/oz). Base metals have nursed overnight losses as the risk appetite across the markets offers base metals with some solace from China’s NDRC resuming its jawboning.<b>Chinese state media noted that China is to auction 30k tonnes of copper, 90k tonnes of aluminium, and 50k tonnes of zinc from state reserves later this month</b>, whilst the NDRC urged stepping up supervision on commodity prices and ensure overall price level targets this year.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品方面，布伦特原油回升至每桶70美元上方。贵金属综合体与收益率同步波动，现货黄金窄幅波动，略高于1800美元/盎司（1803-13美元/盎司），现货白银高于25美元/盎司（24.76-25.12美元/盎司）。基本金属隔夜下跌，因为整个市场的风险偏好为基本金属提供了一些安慰，中国国家发改委恢复了其言论。<b>中国官方媒体指出，中国将于本月晚些时候拍卖国家储备中的3万吨铜、9万吨铝和5万吨锌</b>同时，国家发改委敦促加强大宗商品价格监管，确保今年物价总水平目标。</blockquote></p><p> On day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.</p><p><blockquote>在跌破30,000美元（许多人认为必须守住的关键支撑位）后的第二天，随着比特币飙升并回到31,000美元上方，它就做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199453596","content_text":"Futures mixed.\nTreasury yields extend gains.\nVerizon Communications Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola Co and Anthem, Inc. posted earnings results in premarket.\nBitcoin Storms Back Over $31,000.\n\n(July 21) US equity futures, European bourses and Treasury yields rose for a second day clawing back much of the week's losses that were sparked by fears over spiking COVID-19 cases, as well as the \"peak growth\" and \"peak inflation\" narratives, as bargain hunters helped the S&P 500 to all but erase Monday’s slide in a rally led by cyclicals such as industrial stocks even though the dollar notched further gains on concerns over the impact of a fast-spreading coronavirus variant.\n“The correction we had is healthy to clear some of the excess out of the market and to get better balancing between growth and value,” Katie Koch, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s co-head of fundamental equity, said on Bloomberg Television. “From a long-term perspective we are really still very constructive on equity markets, so we’d encourage clients to be overweight risk assets.”\nAt 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 77 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 E-minis were ip 2.75 points, or 0.06% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 45.25 points, or 0.31%. Bitcoin recovered from its drop below 30,000 jumping back over $31,000 ahead of a conference that sees Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey and Cathie Woodspeak on cryptos.\n\nHere are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:\n\nCryptocurrency-related stocks jump in premarket trading, tracking a rebound for Bitcoin back above the $30,000 level. Marathon Digital (MARA) rises 6.9% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) gains 6.3%.\nModerna (MRNA) slips 1.5% ahead of its inclusion into the S&P 500 Index.\nNetflix (NFLX) gains 0.3% in premarket trading with most analysts maintaining a positive view on the stock despite second-quarter results and forecast for subscriber growth that came in below expectations.\nNext shares surge as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after the U.K. retailer raised its profit forecast again as shoppers returned to stores after the end of lockdowns. RBC sees consensus estimates being increased by mid-to-high single digits.\nThule rises as much as 11% in its steepest intraday gain since Feb. 10 as the maker of bike racks and bags beats the highest profit estimate in the consensus range.\nASML shares rise as much as 4.6%, the most intraday since May 5, after the company reported record orders that Oddo BHF (outperform) says were “slightly above expectations.”\nSAP’s shares fall more than 5.1% after earnings, with analysts underwhelmed by the software giant’s slightly raised outlook for cloud revenue.\nUbisoft shares drop as much as 4.3% to a two-month low after giving a sales update. Jefferies notes the video game maker’s guidance remains a wide range.\nDaimler shares fall as much as 4% in Frankfurt after lowering the sales outlook for its Mercedes-Benz division amid a chip shortage. Warburg says the reduction “is clearly negative” while noting that the margin target corridor for Mercedes-Benz Cars and Vans was confirmed.\n\nFinancial Result posted in premarket:\n1) ASML-ASML reports €4.0 billion net sales and €1.0 billion net income in Q2 2021 Net sales now expected to grow by around 35% in 2021.Q2 net sales of €4.0 billion, gross margin of 50.9%, net income of €1.0 billion; Q2 net bookings of €8.3 billion; ASML expects Q3 2021 net sales between €5.2 billion and €5.4 billion and a gross margin between 51% and 52%; ASML announces a new share buyback program of up to €9 billion to be executed by December 31, 2023.\n2) Coca-Cola - Coca-Cola rallied almost 2% in premarket trading following an upbeat quarter. Coca-Cola came in 12 cents above estimates withadjusted quarterly earnings of 68 cents per share, with revenue beating forecasts as venues like stadiums and movie theaters reopened. Coca-Cola also raised its full-year forecast.\n3) Verizon - Verizon beats on Q2 earnings, issues robust FY21 outlook. Verizon Communications Inc reported second-quarter FY21 operating revenue growth of 10.9% year-on-year to $33.8 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $32.68 billion. Wireless revenue growth, strong Fios and Verizon Media results, and increased wireless equipment revenue drove the revenue numbers.\n4) Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson Q2 earnings beat expectations; raises FY21 outlook, sees $2.5B sales from COVID vaccine. Johnson & Johnson reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $2.48 per share, almost 50% higher than the $1.67 posted a year ago and better than the consensus of $2.27. Net sales increased 27% Y/Y to $23.3 billion, and ahead of the $22.1 billion consensus.\nTreasury 10-year yields rose further above 1.2% though it remains to be seen if the recovery in yields has legs amid lingering concerns about the delta virus variant that led traders to pare back bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Treasuries bear-steepened with long-end yields cheaper by 3bp-4bp as U.S. stock futures rise to weekly highs, with focus turning to corporate earnings. Treasury 10-year yields 1.243%, were cheaper by ~2bp on the day and mildly underperforming bunds and gilts; long-end-led losses steepen 2s10s and 5s30s by ~2bp. The Asian session produced gains for Treasuries, led by Aussie bonds, that began to erode during European morning helped by 10-year futures block sale. U.S. session’s main event is 20-year bond reopening.\nIn FX, the dollar index edged up 0.07% to 93.030, with the euro down 0.07% to $1.1771. The Bloomberg dollar index advanced to its highest since early April and risk-sensitive currencies rallied as a slew of corporate earnings took the focus off the coronavirus. The Aussie headed for its longest run of losses since September amid stricter virus curbs and a weaker-than-expected retail sales print. The Norwegian krone and New Zealand dollar led G-10 gains while the yen underperformed.\nIn commodities, Brent crude oil climbed back above $70 a barrel. The precious metals complex moved in tandem with yields, with spot gold in a tight range just above USD 1,800/oz (1,803-13/oz) and spot silver north of USD 25/oz (24.76-25.12/oz). Base metals have nursed overnight losses as the risk appetite across the markets offers base metals with some solace from China’s NDRC resuming its jawboning.Chinese state media noted that China is to auction 30k tonnes of copper, 90k tonnes of aluminium, and 50k tonnes of zinc from state reserves later this month, whilst the NDRC urged stepping up supervision on commodity prices and ensure overall price level targets this year.\nOn day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147479824,"gmtCreate":1626388861368,"gmtModify":1633927331789,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147479824","repostId":"1199217536","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148164103,"gmtCreate":1625961536602,"gmtModify":1633931410031,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148164103","repostId":"1101087642","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807530604,"gmtCreate":1628042505008,"gmtModify":1633754114402,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807530604","repostId":"1154291132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154291132","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628041967,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154291132?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 09:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Energy Stocks Look Cheap if Oil Prices Are an Indicator<blockquote>如果油价是指标，能源股看起来很便宜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154291132","media":"Barrons","summary":"The price of oil has had a strong 2021 run. Oil stocks haven’t fully responded in kind, creating a p","content":"<p>The price of oil has had a strong 2021 run. Oil stocks haven’t fully responded in kind, creating a potential buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>油价在2021年表现强劲。石油股尚未做出充分反应，创造了潜在的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The price of WTI Crude oil is up about 45% year-to-date as reopenings and trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have jolted economic demand.</p><p><blockquote>由于重新开放和数万亿美元的财政刺激措施震动了经济需求，WTI原油价格今年迄今已上涨约45%。</blockquote></p><p> Energy stocks have also performed handsomely. The&nbsp;Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLE), which counts oil majors&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(XOM) and&nbsp;Chevron(CVX) as its two largest holdings, has risen about 30.5% for the year. That outpaces the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;gain in that time by about 11 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>能源股也表现不俗。能源精选行业SPDR基金（股票代码：XLE）将石油巨头埃克森美孚(XOM)和雪佛龙(CVX)视为其最大的两个持股，该基金今年上涨了约30.5%。这比标准普尔500指数同期的涨幅高出约11个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> But stock gains for&nbsp;energy companies&nbsp;should be stronger than that, given historical trends. With crude oil recently trading around $70 a barrel, the average S&amp;P 500 energy stock should have outperformed the broader index by several times greater than the outperformance seen in 2021, according to Citigroup data.</p><p><blockquote>但考虑到历史趋势，能源公司的股票涨幅应该比这更强劲。根据花旗集团的数据，由于最近原油交易价格约为每桶70美元，标普500能源股票的平均表现应该比2021年的表现高出数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The bank’s data show a tight correlation between the price of crude oil and the outperformance of energy stocks, dating back to 1995. Recently, the two have become decorrelated. Now, “the [energy] stocks look underpriced given the rebound in crude,” writes Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup.</p><p><blockquote>该银行的数据显示，自1995年以来，原油价格与能源股的优异表现之间存在密切相关性。最近，两者变得不相关。现在，“鉴于原油反弹，[能源]股看起来被低估了，”花旗集团首席美国股票策略师托拜厄斯·列夫科维奇写道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d90632bcc788f231842041326cc72d\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Others on Wall Street have also noted the fairly cheap price of energy stocks. Strategists at Truist recently wrote that energy stocks have been in an “oversold” condition. Just a week ago,none of the S&amp;P 500 energy stocks were trading above their 50-day moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的其他人也注意到能源股相当便宜的价格。Truist的策略师最近写道，能源股一直处于“超卖”状态。就在一周前，标普500能源股的交易价格没有一只高于50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, the relatively disappointing performance of energy stocks could signify that the price of crude oil is bound to drop.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，能源股相对令人失望的表现可能意味着原油价格必然会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, investors have recently been grappling with&nbsp;the strong possibility that the U.S. has already seen the fastest economic growth it will see&nbsp;for the current economic expansion, a dynamic that isn’t positive for oil demand. The price of oil—and the energy fund—have both fallen from 2021 peaks hit in July and June, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，投资者最近一直在努力应对美国已经实现当前经济扩张中最快的经济增长的可能性，这种动态对石油需求不利。石油价格和能源基金价格均较7月和6月分别触及的2021年峰值有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> But those who believe in strengthening oil demand can believe in oil stocks from here.</p><p><blockquote>但那些相信石油需求走强的人可以从这里相信石油股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Energy Stocks Look Cheap if Oil Prices Are an Indicator<blockquote>如果油价是指标，能源股看起来很便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEnergy Stocks Look Cheap if Oil Prices Are an Indicator<blockquote>如果油价是指标，能源股看起来很便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 09:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The price of oil has had a strong 2021 run. Oil stocks haven’t fully responded in kind, creating a potential buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>油价在2021年表现强劲。石油股尚未做出充分反应，创造了潜在的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The price of WTI Crude oil is up about 45% year-to-date as reopenings and trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have jolted economic demand.</p><p><blockquote>由于重新开放和数万亿美元的财政刺激措施震动了经济需求，WTI原油价格今年迄今已上涨约45%。</blockquote></p><p> Energy stocks have also performed handsomely. The&nbsp;Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLE), which counts oil majors&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(XOM) and&nbsp;Chevron(CVX) as its two largest holdings, has risen about 30.5% for the year. That outpaces the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;gain in that time by about 11 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>能源股也表现不俗。能源精选行业SPDR基金（股票代码：XLE）将石油巨头埃克森美孚(XOM)和雪佛龙(CVX)视为其最大的两个持股，该基金今年上涨了约30.5%。这比标准普尔500指数同期的涨幅高出约11个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> But stock gains for&nbsp;energy companies&nbsp;should be stronger than that, given historical trends. With crude oil recently trading around $70 a barrel, the average S&amp;P 500 energy stock should have outperformed the broader index by several times greater than the outperformance seen in 2021, according to Citigroup data.</p><p><blockquote>但考虑到历史趋势，能源公司的股票涨幅应该比这更强劲。根据花旗集团的数据，由于最近原油交易价格约为每桶70美元，标普500能源股票的平均表现应该比2021年的表现高出数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The bank’s data show a tight correlation between the price of crude oil and the outperformance of energy stocks, dating back to 1995. Recently, the two have become decorrelated. Now, “the [energy] stocks look underpriced given the rebound in crude,” writes Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup.</p><p><blockquote>该银行的数据显示，自1995年以来，原油价格与能源股的优异表现之间存在密切相关性。最近，两者变得不相关。现在，“鉴于原油反弹，[能源]股看起来被低估了，”花旗集团首席美国股票策略师托拜厄斯·列夫科维奇写道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d90632bcc788f231842041326cc72d\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Others on Wall Street have also noted the fairly cheap price of energy stocks. Strategists at Truist recently wrote that energy stocks have been in an “oversold” condition. Just a week ago,none of the S&amp;P 500 energy stocks were trading above their 50-day moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的其他人也注意到能源股相当便宜的价格。Truist的策略师最近写道，能源股一直处于“超卖”状态。就在一周前，标普500能源股的交易价格没有一只高于50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, the relatively disappointing performance of energy stocks could signify that the price of crude oil is bound to drop.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，能源股相对令人失望的表现可能意味着原油价格必然会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, investors have recently been grappling with&nbsp;the strong possibility that the U.S. has already seen the fastest economic growth it will see&nbsp;for the current economic expansion, a dynamic that isn’t positive for oil demand. The price of oil—and the energy fund—have both fallen from 2021 peaks hit in July and June, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，投资者最近一直在努力应对美国已经实现当前经济扩张中最快的经济增长的可能性，这种动态对石油需求不利。石油价格和能源基金价格均较7月和6月分别触及的2021年峰值有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> But those who believe in strengthening oil demand can believe in oil stocks from here.</p><p><blockquote>但那些相信石油需求走强的人可以从这里相信石油股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/energy-stocks-look-cheap-if-oil-prices-are-an-indicator-51628026755?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股","CVX":"雪佛龙","CPE":"卡隆石油","OXY":"西方石油","HAL":"哈里伯顿","XOM":"埃克森美孚","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","BP":"英国石油","SLB":"斯伦贝谢","COP":"康菲石油"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/energy-stocks-look-cheap-if-oil-prices-are-an-indicator-51628026755?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154291132","content_text":"The price of oil has had a strong 2021 run. Oil stocks haven’t fully responded in kind, creating a potential buying opportunity.\nThe price of WTI Crude oil is up about 45% year-to-date as reopenings and trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have jolted economic demand.\nEnergy stocks have also performed handsomely. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(ticker: XLE), which counts oil majors Exxon Mobil(XOM) and Chevron(CVX) as its two largest holdings, has risen about 30.5% for the year. That outpaces the S&P 500’s gain in that time by about 11 percentage points.\nBut stock gains for energy companies should be stronger than that, given historical trends. With crude oil recently trading around $70 a barrel, the average S&P 500 energy stock should have outperformed the broader index by several times greater than the outperformance seen in 2021, according to Citigroup data.\nThe bank’s data show a tight correlation between the price of crude oil and the outperformance of energy stocks, dating back to 1995. Recently, the two have become decorrelated. Now, “the [energy] stocks look underpriced given the rebound in crude,” writes Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup.\n\nOthers on Wall Street have also noted the fairly cheap price of energy stocks. Strategists at Truist recently wrote that energy stocks have been in an “oversold” condition. Just a week ago,none of the S&P 500 energy stocks were trading above their 50-day moving averages.\nOn the flip side, the relatively disappointing performance of energy stocks could signify that the price of crude oil is bound to drop.\nTo be sure, investors have recently been grappling with the strong possibility that the U.S. has already seen the fastest economic growth it will see for the current economic expansion, a dynamic that isn’t positive for oil demand. The price of oil—and the energy fund—have both fallen from 2021 peaks hit in July and June, respectively.\nBut those who believe in strengthening oil demand can believe in oil stocks from here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XOM":0.9,"COP":0.9,"BP":0.9,"OXY":0.9,"RDS.A":0.9,"CVX":0.9,"HAL":0.9,"CPE":0.9,"SLB":0.9,"XLE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802877689,"gmtCreate":1627772726541,"gmtModify":1633756610013,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802877689","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148165240,"gmtCreate":1625961490380,"gmtModify":1633931410859,"author":{"id":"3584845999735761","authorId":"3584845999735761","name":"85fadd7","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584845999735761","idStr":"3584845999735761"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148165240","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，巨大的被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可能限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA+1.30%和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，巨大的被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可能限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA+1.30%和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}