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2021-06-15

[财迷] [财迷]

Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote>

2021-06-14

[财迷] [财迷]

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2021-06-10

[微笑] [微笑]

3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession<blockquote>经济衰退期间最值得买入的3只科技股</blockquote>

2021-06-07

[笑哭] [笑哭]

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2021-06-06

[财迷] [财迷]

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2021-06-04

[流泪] [流泪]

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2021-06-02

好高

美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？

2021-06-01

真行

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2021-05-29

Test

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Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145996523","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it co","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）在通货膨胀方面，大街和华尔街之间存在巨大的脱节。总得有所让步。</blockquote></p><p> The US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府上周报告称，5月份不包括食品和能源的消费者价格涨幅为1992年以来最快。宣伟(SHW)正在提高油漆价格，这是众多应对大宗商品成本上涨的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Food prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).</p><p><blockquote>食品价格也在飙升。Chipotle(CMG)刚刚提高了价格。金宝汤（CPB）也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> And the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave &amp; Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅和街机连锁店Dave&amp;Buster's(PLAY)的首席财务官在最近与分析师举行的财报看涨期权上表示，由于鸡肉、牛肉和乳制品价格上涨，他预计2021年食品成本将上涨6%至8%。</blockquote></p><p> Wages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.</p><p><blockquote>工资也在上涨，尤其是随着经济重新开放而重返工作岗位的零售、休闲和酒店行业的工人。这增加了通胀压力，因为一些公司会选择提高价格以维持利润。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages aren't helping.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.</p><p><blockquote>在线宠物零售商Chewy(CHWY)的首席执行官在最新财报发布后致股东的一封信中写道，该公司“面临着与全国许多公司类似的劳动力短缺问题”。因此，Chewy继续“投资于更高的工资和福利”，以填补职位空缺。</blockquote></p><p> Yet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者和美联储对通胀上升不屑一顾，认为这是“暂时的”。长期债券收益率正在下降，这通常不会在通胀加剧时发生。如果债券投资者认为价格上涨将持续下去，他们就会要求更高的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> And the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储年底加息的可能性仅为3%。这低于一个月前10%的加息可能性。投资者知道加息是央行对抗通胀上升的最佳工具，当美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上发表讲话时，他们希望听到更多有关该主题的信息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦金融公司首席执行官兰迪·沃伦表示：“债券市场仍然不担心通胀。它正在购买美联储正在出售的东西。”</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，美联储可能会等待太久才对通胀做出反应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀是暂时的还是更具结构性的？”PineBridge Investments信贷和固定收益全球主管Steven Oh问道。“美联储将来会失去对它的控制，犯政策错误，没有能力控制它吗？”</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储和债券市场对通胀的看法是错误的，那么央行可能不得不以比其和投资者希望的更快的速度结束疫情刺激措施。这将意味着取消大规模资产购买并尽早加息。</blockquote></p><p> Oh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.</p><p><blockquote>哦，我不认为会是这样。许多其他人也同意。他们认为，投资者必须牢记经济复苏的速度有多快。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就业市场和供应链出现混乱也就不足为奇了。恢复到2019年底和2020年初新冠肺炎之前的水平需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"</p><p><blockquote>财富管理公司Clarus Group的负责人布莱恩·科斯洛(Bryan Koslow)表示：“关于通货膨胀有很多问题，因为你在日常生活中都会看到它。”“但我们可能已经看到了峰值，尤其是在工资增长方面。”</blockquote></p><p> Even if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.</p><p><blockquote>即使事实证明这是真的，投资者和消费者如此关注价格这一事实也值得注意。十多年来，通货膨胀基本上不是问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理Troy Gayeski表示：“美联储必须认真对待通胀担忧。”他补充说，他认为通胀压力有20%的可能性变得更加持久，而不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> \"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“自2008年以来，有意义的通胀风险一直不存在。直到现在，”Gayeski说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's getting more expensive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么越来越贵</b></blockquote></p><p> Food and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.</p><p><blockquote>食物和油漆并不是唯一变得更贵的东西。正如CNN商业频道的莫伊拉·里特(Moira Ritter)指出的那样，最近几乎所有东西的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格飙升。房地产市场继续繁荣。这导致沙发和其他家居用品的价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>二手车也贵得多。这归因于人们重返工作岗位，以及由于芯片供应短缺损害了新车的生产，经销商处新车短缺。</blockquote></p><p> People are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.</p><p><blockquote>人们也越来越多地旅行。由于预期一些人所说的“炙手可热的疫苗之夏”，机票价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday: </b>US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H &amp; R Block (HRB)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b>美国零售额；美国生产者价格指数；Oracle(ORCL)和H&amp;R Block(HRB)的收益</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday: </b>Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b>美联储利率决定；美国新屋开工和建筑许可；EIA原油库存；Lennar(LEN)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Thursday: </b>US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b>美国初请失业金人数；克罗格(KR)和Adobe(ADBE)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. 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Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 17:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）在通货膨胀方面，大街和华尔街之间存在巨大的脱节。总得有所让步。</blockquote></p><p> The US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府上周报告称，5月份不包括食品和能源的消费者价格涨幅为1992年以来最快。宣伟(SHW)正在提高油漆价格，这是众多应对大宗商品成本上涨的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Food prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).</p><p><blockquote>食品价格也在飙升。Chipotle(CMG)刚刚提高了价格。金宝汤（CPB）也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> And the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave &amp; Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅和街机连锁店Dave&amp;Buster's(PLAY)的首席财务官在最近与分析师举行的财报看涨期权上表示，由于鸡肉、牛肉和乳制品价格上涨，他预计2021年食品成本将上涨6%至8%。</blockquote></p><p> Wages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.</p><p><blockquote>工资也在上涨，尤其是随着经济重新开放而重返工作岗位的零售、休闲和酒店行业的工人。这增加了通胀压力，因为一些公司会选择提高价格以维持利润。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages aren't helping.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.</p><p><blockquote>在线宠物零售商Chewy(CHWY)的首席执行官在最新财报发布后致股东的一封信中写道，该公司“面临着与全国许多公司类似的劳动力短缺问题”。因此，Chewy继续“投资于更高的工资和福利”，以填补职位空缺。</blockquote></p><p> Yet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者和美联储对通胀上升不屑一顾，认为这是“暂时的”。长期债券收益率正在下降，这通常不会在通胀加剧时发生。如果债券投资者认为价格上涨将持续下去，他们就会要求更高的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> And the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储年底加息的可能性仅为3%。这低于一个月前10%的加息可能性。投资者知道加息是央行对抗通胀上升的最佳工具，当美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上发表讲话时，他们希望听到更多有关该主题的信息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦金融公司首席执行官兰迪·沃伦表示：“债券市场仍然不担心通胀。它正在购买美联储正在出售的东西。”</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，美联储可能会等待太久才对通胀做出反应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀是暂时的还是更具结构性的？”PineBridge Investments信贷和固定收益全球主管Steven Oh问道。“美联储将来会失去对它的控制，犯政策错误，没有能力控制它吗？”</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储和债券市场对通胀的看法是错误的，那么央行可能不得不以比其和投资者希望的更快的速度结束疫情刺激措施。这将意味着取消大规模资产购买并尽早加息。</blockquote></p><p> Oh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.</p><p><blockquote>哦，我不认为会是这样。许多其他人也同意。他们认为，投资者必须牢记经济复苏的速度有多快。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就业市场和供应链出现混乱也就不足为奇了。恢复到2019年底和2020年初新冠肺炎之前的水平需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"</p><p><blockquote>财富管理公司Clarus Group的负责人布莱恩·科斯洛(Bryan Koslow)表示：“关于通货膨胀有很多问题，因为你在日常生活中都会看到它。”“但我们可能已经看到了峰值，尤其是在工资增长方面。”</blockquote></p><p> Even if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.</p><p><blockquote>即使事实证明这是真的，投资者和消费者如此关注价格这一事实也值得注意。十多年来，通货膨胀基本上不是问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理Troy Gayeski表示：“美联储必须认真对待通胀担忧。”他补充说，他认为通胀压力有20%的可能性变得更加持久，而不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> \"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“自2008年以来，有意义的通胀风险一直不存在。直到现在，”Gayeski说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's getting more expensive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么越来越贵</b></blockquote></p><p> Food and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.</p><p><blockquote>食物和油漆并不是唯一变得更贵的东西。正如CNN商业频道的莫伊拉·里特(Moira Ritter)指出的那样，最近几乎所有东西的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格飙升。房地产市场继续繁荣。这导致沙发和其他家居用品的价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>二手车也贵得多。这归因于人们重返工作岗位，以及由于芯片供应短缺损害了新车的生产，经销商处新车短缺。</blockquote></p><p> People are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.</p><p><blockquote>人们也越来越多地旅行。由于预期一些人所说的“炙手可热的疫苗之夏”，机票价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday: </b>US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H &amp; R Block (HRB)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b>美国零售额；美国生产者价格指数；Oracle(ORCL)和H&amp;R Block(HRB)的收益</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday: </b>Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b>美联储利率决定；美国新屋开工和建筑许可；EIA原油库存；Lennar(LEN)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Thursday: </b>US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b>美国初请失业金人数；克罗格(KR)和Adobe(ADBE)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145996523","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.\nThe US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.\nFood prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).\nAnd the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave & Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.\nWages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.\nLabor shortages aren't helping.\nThe CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.\nYet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.\nAnd the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.\n\"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.\nThe problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.\n\"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"\nIf the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.\nOh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.\nFor that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.\n\"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"\nEven if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.\n\"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.\n\"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.\nWhat's getting more expensive\nFood and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.\nLumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.\nUsed cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.\nPeople are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.\nUp next\nTuesday: US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H & R Block (HRB)\nWednesday: Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)\nThursday: US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185983922,"gmtCreate":1623630502366,"gmtModify":1634031039806,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185983922","repostId":"2143785622","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183041520,"gmtCreate":1623296607860,"gmtModify":1634034840060,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183041520","repostId":"1143747111","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143747111","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623293378,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143747111?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 10:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession<blockquote>经济衰退期间最值得买入的3只科技股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143747111","media":"fool","summary":"Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending dec","content":"<p>Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending decreases, markets get volatile, and investors get nervous as they see a portion of their portfolios apparently begin to evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>经济衰退可能是一个压力很大的时期。一些人失业，预算收紧，支出减少，市场变得不稳定，投资者感到紧张，因为他们看到自己的一部分投资组合显然开始蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors panic and make the mistake of selling their stocks during a recession and lock in losses. But others know that recessions are a time to<i>buy</i>stock as they offer access to lower stock prices that can lay the foundation for tremendous returns once the economy recovers. The key to executing that last action successfully is to focus on buying stock in strong companies that can survive periods of soft demand and high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者惊慌失措，犯了在经济衰退期间出售股票并锁定损失的错误。但其他人知道经济衰退是一个<i>购买</i>股票，因为它们提供了较低股价的机会，可以为经济复苏后的巨额回报奠定基础。成功执行最后一项行动的关键是专注于购买能够度过需求疲软和高失业率时期的强大公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows when a recession will hit, but we do know there have been 18 recessions over the last century, so it's likely to happen again. The wise investor will do what it takes to be prepared for this eventuality.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道经济衰退何时会到来，但我们确实知道上个世纪已经发生了18次经济衰退，所以它很可能会再次发生。明智的投资者会尽一切努力为这种可能性做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Here are three relatively safe tech stocks that represent strong companies and I would buy them during the next recession.</p><p><blockquote>这里有三只相对安全的科技股，它们代表了强大的公司，我会在下一次经济衰退期间购买它们。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Microsoft</p><p><blockquote>1.微软</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft</b>'s(NASDAQ:MSFT)software is widely used by both consumers and businesses. There are more than 1 billion active devices that run on Windows 10, and the company reported that Office 365 usage was higher than ever last year. Microsoft is also a leader in helping organizations shift to digital technologies, whereMicrosoft Azureis emerging as a strong second-place competitor to<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)in the cloud services market.</p><p><blockquote><b>微软</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）的软件被消费者和企业广泛使用。运行Windows 10的活跃设备超过10亿台，该公司报告称，去年Office 365的使用量比以往任何时候都高。微软也是帮助组织转向数字技术的领导者，Microsoft Azures正在成为强大的第二名竞争对手<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）在云服务市场。</blockquote></p><p> Even with Microsoft's established brand and customer base, the company is not immune to dips in demand caused by recessions. For example, spending on technology could decline during a weak economy, pressuring Microsoft's revenue growth. But it's worth noting that spending on cloud services and infrastructure continued to increase during the pandemic as Microsoft benefited from the remote work trend, and CEO Satya Nadella believes the growing demand for digital services is just getting started.</p><p><blockquote>即使微软拥有成熟的品牌和客户群，该公司也不能幸免于经济衰退造成的需求下降。例如，在经济疲软期间，技术支出可能会下降，给微软的收入增长带来压力。但值得注意的是，随着微软受益于远程工作趋势，疫情期间云服务和基础设施支出持续增加，首席执行官Satya Nadella认为，对数字服务不断增长的需求才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> \"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down. They're accelerating, and it's just the beginning,\" Nadella stated in the fiscal Q3 2021 earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>纳德拉在2021财年第三季度财报中表示：“疫情爆发一年多来，数字采用曲线并没有放缓。它们正在加速，而这仅仅是个开始。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft estimates that 50 billion new devices will come online by 2030, and that could translate to tremendous growth in revenue for Azure -- not to mention demand for Microsoft's popular software tools like Word and Excel, which the company bundles as a subscription service with Microsoft 365.</p><p><blockquote>微软估计，到2030年，将有500亿台新设备上线，这可能会转化为Azure收入的巨大增长，更不用说对Word和Excel等微软流行软件工具的需求了，该公司将这些工具作为订阅服务与微软365捆绑在一起。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is a financial fortress. It ended the most recent quarter with a net cash position of $73 billion, and it generated $54 billion infree cash flowover the last four quarters.&nbsp;With that much cash sitting on the balance sheet and more coming in every year, Microsoft would likely be able to continue increasing its dividend payout even during challenging business conditions. The stock currently pays adividend yieldof 0.87%, representing a cash payout ratio of 30% relative to free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>微软是一个金融堡垒。截至最近一个季度末，该公司的净现金头寸为730亿美元，过去四个季度产生了540亿美元的自由现金流。由于资产负债表上有这么多现金，而且每年都有更多现金流入，微软可能能够继续即使在充满挑战的商业环境下也增加股息支付。该股目前支付的股息收益率为0.87%，相对于自由现金流的现金支付率为30%。</blockquote></p><p> The secular demand trend for digital enterprise software services should keep Microsoft growing over the long term, and its rock-solid financial position should provide a cushion to the stock price in the event of anothermarket correction.</p><p><blockquote>数字企业软件服务的长期需求趋势应该会使微软保持长期增长，其坚如磐石的财务状况应该会在市场再次调整时为股价提供缓冲。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Amazon</p><p><blockquote>2.亚马逊</blockquote></p><p> Amazon provides essential services through its grocery businesses (Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods). It's also the leader in cloud services with its Amazon Web Services business. But serving the consumer is still its bread and butter. The annualPrime Day(usually held in the summer months) has become just as big as Black Friday, and the event provides Amazon an opportunity to reach new customers with its Prime membership program.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊通过其杂货业务（亚马逊生鲜和全食）提供基本服务。它也是云服务领域的领导者，拥有亚马逊网络服务业务。但是为消费者服务仍然是它的面包和黄油。一年一度的Prime Day（通常在夏季举行）已经变得和黑色星期五一样重要，该活动为亚马逊提供了通过Prime会员计划接触新客户的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon generated $419 billion in revenue over the last year, and it continues to grow very fast for a large business. Revenue has doubled over the last three years, with growth accelerating during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊去年创造了4190亿美元的收入，对于一家大型企业来说，它继续快速增长。过去三年，收入翻了一番，疫情期间增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Still, not all recessions may turn out as well for the e-commerce giant. Amazon sells a lot of consumer electronics and other nonessential items that people may not purchase during a prolonged recession.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，并非所有经济衰退对这家电子商务巨头来说都是如此。亚马逊销售许多消费电子产品和其他人们在长期经济衰退期间可能不会购买的非必需品。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, many customers would likely stick with their Prime memberships to enjoy movies, music, and free grocery delivery. Amazon now has more than 200 million loyal patrons through Prime, and the company is seeing Prime engagement continue to rise, providing a stickier ecosystem of services for consumers.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，许多顾客可能会坚持使用Prime会员资格来享受电影、音乐和免费杂货配送。亚马逊目前通过Prime拥有超过2亿忠实顾客，该公司看到Prime参与度持续上升，为消费者提供了更具粘性的服务生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> Like Microsoft, Amazon generates a substantial amount of free cash flow to continue investing in the future no matter what the economy is doing. Over the last four quarters, Amazon generated $26.4 billion in free cash flow.&nbsp;Most of its operating profit comes from cloud services, where Amazon Web Services made up 11.6% of total revenue on a trailing-12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>与微软一样，无论经济状况如何，亚马逊都会产生大量自由现金流来继续投资未来。在过去的四个季度中，亚马逊产生了264亿美元的自由现金流。其大部分营业利润来自云服务，亚马逊网络服务在过去12个月中占总收入的11.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While Amazon doesn't pay a dividend, that's sort of a good thing at this juncture, because it means management is still seeing tremendous opportunities to invest in building more fulfillment warehouses and its own transportation fleet to meet growing demand. This is a top growth stock to consider buying when the next market correction strikes.</p><p><blockquote>虽然亚马逊不支付股息，但在这个节骨眼上这是一件好事，因为这意味着管理层仍然看到了投资建设更多履行仓库和自己的运输车队以满足不断增长的需求的巨大机会。当下一次市场调整来袭时，这是一只值得考虑购买的顶级成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc76a43a51b8c48de3337ad1dea22962\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AAPLDATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AAPL数据来自YCHARTS</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 3. Apple</p><p><blockquote>3.苹果</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:AAPL)is one of the most iconic consumer brands in the world. Sure, sales of its pricey aluminum-clad devices would likely suffer if people didn't have money to spend, but the company also has a growing revenue stream from subscription services, and it generates plenty of cash to continue paying a regular dividend to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）是世界上最具标志性的消费品牌之一。当然，如果人们没有钱花，其昂贵的铝包设备的销售可能会受到影响，但该公司的订阅服务收入来源也在不断增长，并且它产生了大量现金来继续向股东支付定期股息。</blockquote></p><p> While iPhone revenue dropped 3.3% in fiscal 2020 (which ended in September), Apple saw sales of its Macs, iPads, and wearables grow at healthy rates during the pandemic. And since the iPhone 12 launched in the fall, Apple's revenue growth has accelerated to 53% year over year in the quarter that ended in March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然iPhone收入在2020财年（截至9月）下降了3.3%，但苹果的Mac、iPad和可穿戴设备的销量在疫情期间以健康的速度增长。自iPhone 12秋季推出以来，截至3月份的季度，苹果的收入同比增长已加速至53%。</blockquote></p><p> Most importantly, Apple's installed base of active devices continues to hit new records. The new Macs and iPad Pros featuringApple's new M1 chip have rejuvenated salesof these products&nbsp;-- a great sign of Apple's brand strength in the marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，苹果的活跃设备安装基数继续创下新纪录。采用苹果新M1芯片的新款Mac和iPad Pro重振了这些产品的销售，这是苹果在市场上品牌实力的一个很好的标志。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently pays a dividend yield of 0.67%, with a current cash payout ratio of 15.7% of trailing free cash flow. While shares are up 50% over the last year, the forwardprice-to-earnings ratiois roughly in line with that of the broader market at 24 times expected earnings. At this valuation level, there might be more room for upside in the near term, especially if the iPhone upgrade cycle remains stronger than investors expect.</p><p><blockquote>该股目前支付的股息收益率为0.67%，当前现金支付率为追踪自由现金流的15.7%。虽然股价比去年上涨了50%，但远期市盈率与大盘大致一致，为预期市盈率的24倍。在这个估值水平下，短期内可能会有更大的上涨空间，特别是如果iPhone升级周期仍然强于投资者的预期。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call in late April, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted that 5G penetration is \"still low at this point,\" with a lot of upgrades still in front of the company.</p><p><blockquote>在4月下旬的财报看涨期权上，苹果首席执行官Tim Cook指出，5G渗透率“目前仍然很低”，公司面前仍有很多升级。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e5874f0d32193fcda101a46ff8ad430\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AAPL PE RATIO (FORWARD)DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的AAPL市盈率（远期）数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the event of another recession, investors can feel confident that Apple's business won't be starving for funds to keep cranking out new products -- and most importantly, keeping its employees happily on the payroll.</p><p><blockquote>如果再次出现经济衰退，投资者可以相信苹果的业务不会缺乏资金来继续开发新产品，最重要的是，让员工愉快地享受工资。</blockquote></p><p> Apple ended the fiscal second quarter with net cash of $87 billion on the books. While management is working toward a cash-neutral position on its balance sheet,&nbsp;Apple continues to gush more every year, with trailing free cash flow topping $90 billion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第二财季结束时账面净现金为870亿美元。虽然管理层正在努力在资产负债表上实现现金中性，但苹果每年都会继续增加资金，追踪自由现金流超过900亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key takeaway</p><p><blockquote>关键要点</blockquote></p><p> Shares ofleading tech stocksthat generate substantial amounts of free cash flow will be relatively safe bets during a recession. Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple possess these traits in spades. These companies are dominant sector leaders that should reward investors for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>在经济衰退期间，产生大量自由现金流的领先科技股的股票将是相对安全的押注。微软、亚马逊和苹果绝对具备这些特征。这些公司是占主导地位的行业领导者，应该在未来几年回报投资者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession<blockquote>经济衰退期间最值得买入的3只科技股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession<blockquote>经济衰退期间最值得买入的3只科技股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 10:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending decreases, markets get volatile, and investors get nervous as they see a portion of their portfolios apparently begin to evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>经济衰退可能是一个压力很大的时期。一些人失业，预算收紧，支出减少，市场变得不稳定，投资者感到紧张，因为他们看到自己的一部分投资组合显然开始蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors panic and make the mistake of selling their stocks during a recession and lock in losses. But others know that recessions are a time to<i>buy</i>stock as they offer access to lower stock prices that can lay the foundation for tremendous returns once the economy recovers. The key to executing that last action successfully is to focus on buying stock in strong companies that can survive periods of soft demand and high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者惊慌失措，犯了在经济衰退期间出售股票并锁定损失的错误。但其他人知道经济衰退是一个<i>购买</i>股票，因为它们提供了较低股价的机会，可以为经济复苏后的巨额回报奠定基础。成功执行最后一项行动的关键是专注于购买能够度过需求疲软和高失业率时期的强大公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows when a recession will hit, but we do know there have been 18 recessions over the last century, so it's likely to happen again. The wise investor will do what it takes to be prepared for this eventuality.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道经济衰退何时会到来，但我们确实知道上个世纪已经发生了18次经济衰退，所以它很可能会再次发生。明智的投资者会尽一切努力为这种可能性做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Here are three relatively safe tech stocks that represent strong companies and I would buy them during the next recession.</p><p><blockquote>这里有三只相对安全的科技股，它们代表了强大的公司，我会在下一次经济衰退期间购买它们。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Microsoft</p><p><blockquote>1.微软</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft</b>'s(NASDAQ:MSFT)software is widely used by both consumers and businesses. There are more than 1 billion active devices that run on Windows 10, and the company reported that Office 365 usage was higher than ever last year. Microsoft is also a leader in helping organizations shift to digital technologies, whereMicrosoft Azureis emerging as a strong second-place competitor to<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)in the cloud services market.</p><p><blockquote><b>微软</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）的软件被消费者和企业广泛使用。运行Windows 10的活跃设备超过10亿台，该公司报告称，去年Office 365的使用量比以往任何时候都高。微软也是帮助组织转向数字技术的领导者，Microsoft Azures正在成为强大的第二名竞争对手<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）在云服务市场。</blockquote></p><p> Even with Microsoft's established brand and customer base, the company is not immune to dips in demand caused by recessions. For example, spending on technology could decline during a weak economy, pressuring Microsoft's revenue growth. But it's worth noting that spending on cloud services and infrastructure continued to increase during the pandemic as Microsoft benefited from the remote work trend, and CEO Satya Nadella believes the growing demand for digital services is just getting started.</p><p><blockquote>即使微软拥有成熟的品牌和客户群，该公司也不能幸免于经济衰退造成的需求下降。例如，在经济疲软期间，技术支出可能会下降，给微软的收入增长带来压力。但值得注意的是，随着微软受益于远程工作趋势，疫情期间云服务和基础设施支出持续增加，首席执行官Satya Nadella认为，对数字服务不断增长的需求才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> \"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down. They're accelerating, and it's just the beginning,\" Nadella stated in the fiscal Q3 2021 earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>纳德拉在2021财年第三季度财报中表示：“疫情爆发一年多来，数字采用曲线并没有放缓。它们正在加速，而这仅仅是个开始。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft estimates that 50 billion new devices will come online by 2030, and that could translate to tremendous growth in revenue for Azure -- not to mention demand for Microsoft's popular software tools like Word and Excel, which the company bundles as a subscription service with Microsoft 365.</p><p><blockquote>微软估计，到2030年，将有500亿台新设备上线，这可能会转化为Azure收入的巨大增长，更不用说对Word和Excel等微软流行软件工具的需求了，该公司将这些工具作为订阅服务与微软365捆绑在一起。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is a financial fortress. It ended the most recent quarter with a net cash position of $73 billion, and it generated $54 billion infree cash flowover the last four quarters.&nbsp;With that much cash sitting on the balance sheet and more coming in every year, Microsoft would likely be able to continue increasing its dividend payout even during challenging business conditions. The stock currently pays adividend yieldof 0.87%, representing a cash payout ratio of 30% relative to free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>微软是一个金融堡垒。截至最近一个季度末，该公司的净现金头寸为730亿美元，过去四个季度产生了540亿美元的自由现金流。由于资产负债表上有这么多现金，而且每年都有更多现金流入，微软可能能够继续即使在充满挑战的商业环境下也增加股息支付。该股目前支付的股息收益率为0.87%，相对于自由现金流的现金支付率为30%。</blockquote></p><p> The secular demand trend for digital enterprise software services should keep Microsoft growing over the long term, and its rock-solid financial position should provide a cushion to the stock price in the event of anothermarket correction.</p><p><blockquote>数字企业软件服务的长期需求趋势应该会使微软保持长期增长，其坚如磐石的财务状况应该会在市场再次调整时为股价提供缓冲。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Amazon</p><p><blockquote>2.亚马逊</blockquote></p><p> Amazon provides essential services through its grocery businesses (Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods). It's also the leader in cloud services with its Amazon Web Services business. But serving the consumer is still its bread and butter. The annualPrime Day(usually held in the summer months) has become just as big as Black Friday, and the event provides Amazon an opportunity to reach new customers with its Prime membership program.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊通过其杂货业务（亚马逊生鲜和全食）提供基本服务。它也是云服务领域的领导者，拥有亚马逊网络服务业务。但是为消费者服务仍然是它的面包和黄油。一年一度的Prime Day（通常在夏季举行）已经变得和黑色星期五一样重要，该活动为亚马逊提供了通过Prime会员计划接触新客户的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon generated $419 billion in revenue over the last year, and it continues to grow very fast for a large business. Revenue has doubled over the last three years, with growth accelerating during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊去年创造了4190亿美元的收入，对于一家大型企业来说，它继续快速增长。过去三年，收入翻了一番，疫情期间增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Still, not all recessions may turn out as well for the e-commerce giant. Amazon sells a lot of consumer electronics and other nonessential items that people may not purchase during a prolonged recession.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，并非所有经济衰退对这家电子商务巨头来说都是如此。亚马逊销售许多消费电子产品和其他人们在长期经济衰退期间可能不会购买的非必需品。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, many customers would likely stick with their Prime memberships to enjoy movies, music, and free grocery delivery. Amazon now has more than 200 million loyal patrons through Prime, and the company is seeing Prime engagement continue to rise, providing a stickier ecosystem of services for consumers.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，许多顾客可能会坚持使用Prime会员资格来享受电影、音乐和免费杂货配送。亚马逊目前通过Prime拥有超过2亿忠实顾客，该公司看到Prime参与度持续上升，为消费者提供了更具粘性的服务生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> Like Microsoft, Amazon generates a substantial amount of free cash flow to continue investing in the future no matter what the economy is doing. Over the last four quarters, Amazon generated $26.4 billion in free cash flow.&nbsp;Most of its operating profit comes from cloud services, where Amazon Web Services made up 11.6% of total revenue on a trailing-12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>与微软一样，无论经济状况如何，亚马逊都会产生大量自由现金流来继续投资未来。在过去的四个季度中，亚马逊产生了264亿美元的自由现金流。其大部分营业利润来自云服务，亚马逊网络服务在过去12个月中占总收入的11.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While Amazon doesn't pay a dividend, that's sort of a good thing at this juncture, because it means management is still seeing tremendous opportunities to invest in building more fulfillment warehouses and its own transportation fleet to meet growing demand. This is a top growth stock to consider buying when the next market correction strikes.</p><p><blockquote>虽然亚马逊不支付股息，但在这个节骨眼上这是一件好事，因为这意味着管理层仍然看到了投资建设更多履行仓库和自己的运输车队以满足不断增长的需求的巨大机会。当下一次市场调整来袭时，这是一只值得考虑购买的顶级成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc76a43a51b8c48de3337ad1dea22962\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AAPLDATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AAPL数据来自YCHARTS</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 3. Apple</p><p><blockquote>3.苹果</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:AAPL)is one of the most iconic consumer brands in the world. Sure, sales of its pricey aluminum-clad devices would likely suffer if people didn't have money to spend, but the company also has a growing revenue stream from subscription services, and it generates plenty of cash to continue paying a regular dividend to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）是世界上最具标志性的消费品牌之一。当然，如果人们没有钱花，其昂贵的铝包设备的销售可能会受到影响，但该公司的订阅服务收入来源也在不断增长，并且它产生了大量现金来继续向股东支付定期股息。</blockquote></p><p> While iPhone revenue dropped 3.3% in fiscal 2020 (which ended in September), Apple saw sales of its Macs, iPads, and wearables grow at healthy rates during the pandemic. And since the iPhone 12 launched in the fall, Apple's revenue growth has accelerated to 53% year over year in the quarter that ended in March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然iPhone收入在2020财年（截至9月）下降了3.3%，但苹果的Mac、iPad和可穿戴设备的销量在疫情期间以健康的速度增长。自iPhone 12秋季推出以来，截至3月份的季度，苹果的收入同比增长已加速至53%。</blockquote></p><p> Most importantly, Apple's installed base of active devices continues to hit new records. The new Macs and iPad Pros featuringApple's new M1 chip have rejuvenated salesof these products&nbsp;-- a great sign of Apple's brand strength in the marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，苹果的活跃设备安装基数继续创下新纪录。采用苹果新M1芯片的新款Mac和iPad Pro重振了这些产品的销售，这是苹果在市场上品牌实力的一个很好的标志。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently pays a dividend yield of 0.67%, with a current cash payout ratio of 15.7% of trailing free cash flow. While shares are up 50% over the last year, the forwardprice-to-earnings ratiois roughly in line with that of the broader market at 24 times expected earnings. At this valuation level, there might be more room for upside in the near term, especially if the iPhone upgrade cycle remains stronger than investors expect.</p><p><blockquote>该股目前支付的股息收益率为0.67%，当前现金支付率为追踪自由现金流的15.7%。虽然股价比去年上涨了50%，但远期市盈率与大盘大致一致，为预期市盈率的24倍。在这个估值水平下，短期内可能会有更大的上涨空间，特别是如果iPhone升级周期仍然强于投资者的预期。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call in late April, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted that 5G penetration is \"still low at this point,\" with a lot of upgrades still in front of the company.</p><p><blockquote>在4月下旬的财报看涨期权上，苹果首席执行官Tim Cook指出，5G渗透率“目前仍然很低”，公司面前仍有很多升级。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e5874f0d32193fcda101a46ff8ad430\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AAPL PE RATIO (FORWARD)DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的AAPL市盈率（远期）数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the event of another recession, investors can feel confident that Apple's business won't be starving for funds to keep cranking out new products -- and most importantly, keeping its employees happily on the payroll.</p><p><blockquote>如果再次出现经济衰退，投资者可以相信苹果的业务不会缺乏资金来继续开发新产品，最重要的是，让员工愉快地享受工资。</blockquote></p><p> Apple ended the fiscal second quarter with net cash of $87 billion on the books. While management is working toward a cash-neutral position on its balance sheet,&nbsp;Apple continues to gush more every year, with trailing free cash flow topping $90 billion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第二财季结束时账面净现金为870亿美元。虽然管理层正在努力在资产负债表上实现现金中性，但苹果每年都会继续增加资金，追踪自由现金流超过900亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key takeaway</p><p><blockquote>关键要点</blockquote></p><p> Shares ofleading tech stocksthat generate substantial amounts of free cash flow will be relatively safe bets during a recession. Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple possess these traits in spades. These companies are dominant sector leaders that should reward investors for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>在经济衰退期间，产生大量自由现金流的领先科技股的股票将是相对安全的押注。微软、亚马逊和苹果绝对具备这些特征。这些公司是占主导地位的行业领导者，应该在未来几年回报投资者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/3-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-during-a-recession/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/3-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-during-a-recession/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143747111","content_text":"Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending decreases, markets get volatile, and investors get nervous as they see a portion of their portfolios apparently begin to evaporate.\nSome investors panic and make the mistake of selling their stocks during a recession and lock in losses. But others know that recessions are a time tobuystock as they offer access to lower stock prices that can lay the foundation for tremendous returns once the economy recovers. The key to executing that last action successfully is to focus on buying stock in strong companies that can survive periods of soft demand and high unemployment.\nNo one knows when a recession will hit, but we do know there have been 18 recessions over the last century, so it's likely to happen again. The wise investor will do what it takes to be prepared for this eventuality.\nHere are three relatively safe tech stocks that represent strong companies and I would buy them during the next recession.\n1. Microsoft\nMicrosoft's(NASDAQ:MSFT)software is widely used by both consumers and businesses. There are more than 1 billion active devices that run on Windows 10, and the company reported that Office 365 usage was higher than ever last year. Microsoft is also a leader in helping organizations shift to digital technologies, whereMicrosoft Azureis emerging as a strong second-place competitor toAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)in the cloud services market.\nEven with Microsoft's established brand and customer base, the company is not immune to dips in demand caused by recessions. For example, spending on technology could decline during a weak economy, pressuring Microsoft's revenue growth. But it's worth noting that spending on cloud services and infrastructure continued to increase during the pandemic as Microsoft benefited from the remote work trend, and CEO Satya Nadella believes the growing demand for digital services is just getting started.\n\"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down. They're accelerating, and it's just the beginning,\" Nadella stated in the fiscal Q3 2021 earnings report.\nMicrosoft estimates that 50 billion new devices will come online by 2030, and that could translate to tremendous growth in revenue for Azure -- not to mention demand for Microsoft's popular software tools like Word and Excel, which the company bundles as a subscription service with Microsoft 365.\nMicrosoft is a financial fortress. It ended the most recent quarter with a net cash position of $73 billion, and it generated $54 billion infree cash flowover the last four quarters. With that much cash sitting on the balance sheet and more coming in every year, Microsoft would likely be able to continue increasing its dividend payout even during challenging business conditions. The stock currently pays adividend yieldof 0.87%, representing a cash payout ratio of 30% relative to free cash flow.\nThe secular demand trend for digital enterprise software services should keep Microsoft growing over the long term, and its rock-solid financial position should provide a cushion to the stock price in the event of anothermarket correction.\n2. Amazon\nAmazon provides essential services through its grocery businesses (Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods). It's also the leader in cloud services with its Amazon Web Services business. But serving the consumer is still its bread and butter. The annualPrime Day(usually held in the summer months) has become just as big as Black Friday, and the event provides Amazon an opportunity to reach new customers with its Prime membership program.\nAmazon generated $419 billion in revenue over the last year, and it continues to grow very fast for a large business. Revenue has doubled over the last three years, with growth accelerating during the pandemic.\nStill, not all recessions may turn out as well for the e-commerce giant. Amazon sells a lot of consumer electronics and other nonessential items that people may not purchase during a prolonged recession.\nOn the other hand, many customers would likely stick with their Prime memberships to enjoy movies, music, and free grocery delivery. Amazon now has more than 200 million loyal patrons through Prime, and the company is seeing Prime engagement continue to rise, providing a stickier ecosystem of services for consumers.\nLike Microsoft, Amazon generates a substantial amount of free cash flow to continue investing in the future no matter what the economy is doing. Over the last four quarters, Amazon generated $26.4 billion in free cash flow. Most of its operating profit comes from cloud services, where Amazon Web Services made up 11.6% of total revenue on a trailing-12-month basis.\nWhile Amazon doesn't pay a dividend, that's sort of a good thing at this juncture, because it means management is still seeing tremendous opportunities to invest in building more fulfillment warehouses and its own transportation fleet to meet growing demand. This is a top growth stock to consider buying when the next market correction strikes.\nAAPLDATA BY YCHARTS\n3. Apple\nApple(NASDAQ:AAPL)is one of the most iconic consumer brands in the world. Sure, sales of its pricey aluminum-clad devices would likely suffer if people didn't have money to spend, but the company also has a growing revenue stream from subscription services, and it generates plenty of cash to continue paying a regular dividend to shareholders.\nWhile iPhone revenue dropped 3.3% in fiscal 2020 (which ended in September), Apple saw sales of its Macs, iPads, and wearables grow at healthy rates during the pandemic. And since the iPhone 12 launched in the fall, Apple's revenue growth has accelerated to 53% year over year in the quarter that ended in March.\nMost importantly, Apple's installed base of active devices continues to hit new records. The new Macs and iPad Pros featuringApple's new M1 chip have rejuvenated salesof these products -- a great sign of Apple's brand strength in the marketplace.\nThe stock currently pays a dividend yield of 0.67%, with a current cash payout ratio of 15.7% of trailing free cash flow. While shares are up 50% over the last year, the forwardprice-to-earnings ratiois roughly in line with that of the broader market at 24 times expected earnings. At this valuation level, there might be more room for upside in the near term, especially if the iPhone upgrade cycle remains stronger than investors expect.\nDuring the earnings call in late April, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted that 5G penetration is \"still low at this point,\" with a lot of upgrades still in front of the company.\nAAPL PE RATIO (FORWARD)DATA BY YCHARTS\nIn the event of another recession, investors can feel confident that Apple's business won't be starving for funds to keep cranking out new products -- and most importantly, keeping its employees happily on the payroll.\nApple ended the fiscal second quarter with net cash of $87 billion on the books. While management is working toward a cash-neutral position on its balance sheet, Apple continues to gush more every year, with trailing free cash flow topping $90 billion.\nThe key takeaway\nShares ofleading tech stocksthat generate substantial amounts of free cash flow will be relatively safe bets during a recession. Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple possess these traits in spades. These companies are dominant sector leaders that should reward investors for years to come.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":114145366,"gmtCreate":1623060711355,"gmtModify":1634037390554,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114145366","repostId":"1130425727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":115124409,"gmtCreate":1622961301001,"gmtModify":1634096541774,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115124409","repostId":"1156802172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116228490,"gmtCreate":1622805795010,"gmtModify":1634097850384,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪] [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116228490","repostId":"1119332623","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":113452586,"gmtCreate":1622636096145,"gmtModify":1634099731006,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好高","listText":"好高","text":"好高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113452586","repostId":"2140416949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140416949","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622630403,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140416949?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 18:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140416949","media":"智通财经网","summary":"“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。\n\n有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔","content":"<p>“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0991ce9046f207d4130716b72c2b2b02\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔已经重复数百遍这并不暗示着美联储宽松的政策要转向，但可能不足以平息市场恐慌。</p>\n<p>事实上，美联储货币政策可能存在更大的威胁，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0N4T.UK\">北欧联合银行</a>上周写道，美联储在6月10日发布的5月通胀报告将非常有可能是一个“震惊”的消息，因为当前汽车和货车使用量在以50%的年增长率增长，住房租金年增长率存在潜在的上涨空间。</p>\n<p>对于那些还没有了解二手车市场情况的人，这里有一张Mannheim二手车指数的图表可供参考：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9760ce507bb6caf12156a19fc79326ca\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"912\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>据Apartment List的数据显示，住房租金在经历了一段时间的下滑后，这个CPI和PCE篮子中的关键组成部分突然暴涨。美国全国租金中值刚刚创下有记录以来的最高涨幅。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d5ea7fbded6605c2bf42d32832ec86\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张图表促使北欧<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASBC\">联合银行</a>作出一个预测：“不排除美国5月核心CPI通胀达到4%”，<b>若这一幕出现，恐将导致市场对美联储的“暂时性通胀”理论失去信任，甚至连民主党政客也要求美联储开始缩减购债规模。 </b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880ca75b3087a5e56e0a38dc72a8cc50\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然，有可能情况没那么糟糕，甚至会转向好的一面，一些人已经开始关注下一个阶段的价格下跌，例如近日大宗商品价格有下行趋势。分析师指出需求增长存在放缓的初步迹象，供给也将开始增加，价格可能最终会温和上涨，随之而来的是良性通胀。</p>\n<p>以木材和住房供给为例：此前木材新订单高于产量、库存下降，一度引发价格飙升；但是现在，木材产量已经追上了订单，木材库存趋于稳定。许多经济学家，其中包括美联储，预计这种模式将在经济的其他领域重演。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1af1f2f95edcf3700e6feda7edddd67b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 18:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/486893.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。\n\n有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔已经重复数百遍这并不暗示着美联储宽松的政策要转向，但可能不足以平息市场恐慌。\n事实上，美联储货币政策可能存在更大的威胁，北欧联合银行上周写道，美联储在6月10日发布的5月通胀报告将非常有可能是一个“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/486893.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d404e53536bd5bd25337ed01def7224","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/486893.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2140416949","content_text":"“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。\n\n有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔已经重复数百遍这并不暗示着美联储宽松的政策要转向，但可能不足以平息市场恐慌。\n事实上，美联储货币政策可能存在更大的威胁，北欧联合银行上周写道，美联储在6月10日发布的5月通胀报告将非常有可能是一个“震惊”的消息，因为当前汽车和货车使用量在以50%的年增长率增长，住房租金年增长率存在潜在的上涨空间。\n对于那些还没有了解二手车市场情况的人，这里有一张Mannheim二手车指数的图表可供参考：\n\n据Apartment List的数据显示，住房租金在经历了一段时间的下滑后，这个CPI和PCE篮子中的关键组成部分突然暴涨。美国全国租金中值刚刚创下有记录以来的最高涨幅。\n\n这张图表促使北欧联合银行作出一个预测：“不排除美国5月核心CPI通胀达到4%”，若这一幕出现，恐将导致市场对美联储的“暂时性通胀”理论失去信任，甚至连民主党政客也要求美联储开始缩减购债规模。 \n\n当然，有可能情况没那么糟糕，甚至会转向好的一面，一些人已经开始关注下一个阶段的价格下跌，例如近日大宗商品价格有下行趋势。分析师指出需求增长存在放缓的初步迹象，供给也将开始增加，价格可能最终会温和上涨，随之而来的是良性通胀。\n以木材和住房供给为例：此前木材新订单高于产量、库存下降，一度引发价格飙升；但是现在，木材产量已经追上了订单，木材库存趋于稳定。许多经济学家，其中包括美联储，预计这种模式将在经济的其他领域重演。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":119612315,"gmtCreate":1622541263137,"gmtModify":1634100672602,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真行","listText":"真行","text":"真行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119612315","repostId":"1109109753","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":134264986,"gmtCreate":1622243659745,"gmtModify":1634182592556,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Test","listText":"Test","text":"Test","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134264986","repostId":"1155283133","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":115124409,"gmtCreate":1622961301001,"gmtModify":1634096541774,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115124409","repostId":"1156802172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187688534,"gmtCreate":1623752195128,"gmtModify":1634029048106,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187688534","repostId":"1145996523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145996523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623751116,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145996523?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 17:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145996523","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it co","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）在通货膨胀方面，大街和华尔街之间存在巨大的脱节。总得有所让步。</blockquote></p><p> The US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府上周报告称，5月份不包括食品和能源的消费者价格涨幅为1992年以来最快。宣伟(SHW)正在提高油漆价格，这是众多应对大宗商品成本上涨的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Food prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).</p><p><blockquote>食品价格也在飙升。Chipotle(CMG)刚刚提高了价格。金宝汤（CPB）也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> And the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave &amp; Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅和街机连锁店Dave&amp;Buster's(PLAY)的首席财务官在最近与分析师举行的财报看涨期权上表示，由于鸡肉、牛肉和乳制品价格上涨，他预计2021年食品成本将上涨6%至8%。</blockquote></p><p> Wages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.</p><p><blockquote>工资也在上涨，尤其是随着经济重新开放而重返工作岗位的零售、休闲和酒店行业的工人。这增加了通胀压力，因为一些公司会选择提高价格以维持利润。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages aren't helping.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.</p><p><blockquote>在线宠物零售商Chewy(CHWY)的首席执行官在最新财报发布后致股东的一封信中写道，该公司“面临着与全国许多公司类似的劳动力短缺问题”。因此，Chewy继续“投资于更高的工资和福利”，以填补职位空缺。</blockquote></p><p> Yet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者和美联储对通胀上升不屑一顾，认为这是“暂时的”。长期债券收益率正在下降，这通常不会在通胀加剧时发生。如果债券投资者认为价格上涨将持续下去，他们就会要求更高的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> And the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储年底加息的可能性仅为3%。这低于一个月前10%的加息可能性。投资者知道加息是央行对抗通胀上升的最佳工具，当美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上发表讲话时，他们希望听到更多有关该主题的信息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦金融公司首席执行官兰迪·沃伦表示：“债券市场仍然不担心通胀。它正在购买美联储正在出售的东西。”</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，美联储可能会等待太久才对通胀做出反应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀是暂时的还是更具结构性的？”PineBridge Investments信贷和固定收益全球主管Steven Oh问道。“美联储将来会失去对它的控制，犯政策错误，没有能力控制它吗？”</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储和债券市场对通胀的看法是错误的，那么央行可能不得不以比其和投资者希望的更快的速度结束疫情刺激措施。这将意味着取消大规模资产购买并尽早加息。</blockquote></p><p> Oh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.</p><p><blockquote>哦，我不认为会是这样。许多其他人也同意。他们认为，投资者必须牢记经济复苏的速度有多快。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就业市场和供应链出现混乱也就不足为奇了。恢复到2019年底和2020年初新冠肺炎之前的水平需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"</p><p><blockquote>财富管理公司Clarus Group的负责人布莱恩·科斯洛(Bryan Koslow)表示：“关于通货膨胀有很多问题，因为你在日常生活中都会看到它。”“但我们可能已经看到了峰值，尤其是在工资增长方面。”</blockquote></p><p> Even if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.</p><p><blockquote>即使事实证明这是真的，投资者和消费者如此关注价格这一事实也值得注意。十多年来，通货膨胀基本上不是问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理Troy Gayeski表示：“美联储必须认真对待通胀担忧。”他补充说，他认为通胀压力有20%的可能性变得更加持久，而不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> \"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“自2008年以来，有意义的通胀风险一直不存在。直到现在，”Gayeski说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's getting more expensive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么越来越贵</b></blockquote></p><p> Food and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.</p><p><blockquote>食物和油漆并不是唯一变得更贵的东西。正如CNN商业频道的莫伊拉·里特(Moira Ritter)指出的那样，最近几乎所有东西的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格飙升。房地产市场继续繁荣。这导致沙发和其他家居用品的价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>二手车也贵得多。这归因于人们重返工作岗位，以及由于芯片供应短缺损害了新车的生产，经销商处新车短缺。</blockquote></p><p> People are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.</p><p><blockquote>人们也越来越多地旅行。由于预期一些人所说的“炙手可热的疫苗之夏”，机票价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday: </b>US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H &amp; R Block (HRB)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b>美国零售额；美国生产者价格指数；Oracle(ORCL)和H&amp;R Block(HRB)的收益</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday: </b>Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b>美联储利率决定；美国新屋开工和建筑许可；EIA原油库存；Lennar(LEN)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Thursday: </b>US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b>美国初请失业金人数；克罗格(KR)和Adobe(ADBE)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors and the Fed aren't freaking out about inflation. Should they?<blockquote>投资者和美联储并没有对通胀感到恐慌。他们应该吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 17:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）在通货膨胀方面，大街和华尔街之间存在巨大的脱节。总得有所让步。</blockquote></p><p> The US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.</p><p><blockquote>美国政府上周报告称，5月份不包括食品和能源的消费者价格涨幅为1992年以来最快。宣伟(SHW)正在提高油漆价格，这是众多应对大宗商品成本上涨的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> Food prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).</p><p><blockquote>食品价格也在飙升。Chipotle(CMG)刚刚提高了价格。金宝汤（CPB）也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> And the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave &amp; Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.</p><p><blockquote>餐厅和街机连锁店Dave&amp;Buster's(PLAY)的首席财务官在最近与分析师举行的财报看涨期权上表示，由于鸡肉、牛肉和乳制品价格上涨，他预计2021年食品成本将上涨6%至8%。</blockquote></p><p> Wages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.</p><p><blockquote>工资也在上涨，尤其是随着经济重新开放而重返工作岗位的零售、休闲和酒店行业的工人。这增加了通胀压力，因为一些公司会选择提高价格以维持利润。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages aren't helping.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺无济于事。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.</p><p><blockquote>在线宠物零售商Chewy(CHWY)的首席执行官在最新财报发布后致股东的一封信中写道，该公司“面临着与全国许多公司类似的劳动力短缺问题”。因此，Chewy继续“投资于更高的工资和福利”，以填补职位空缺。</blockquote></p><p> Yet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者和美联储对通胀上升不屑一顾，认为这是“暂时的”。长期债券收益率正在下降，这通常不会在通胀加剧时发生。如果债券投资者认为价格上涨将持续下去，他们就会要求更高的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> And the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储年底加息的可能性仅为3%。这低于一个月前10%的加息可能性。投资者知道加息是央行对抗通胀上升的最佳工具，当美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上发表讲话时，他们希望听到更多有关该主题的信息。</blockquote></p><p> \"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦金融公司首席执行官兰迪·沃伦表示：“债券市场仍然不担心通胀。它正在购买美联储正在出售的东西。”</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，美联储可能会等待太久才对通胀做出反应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"</p><p><blockquote>“通货膨胀是暂时的还是更具结构性的？”PineBridge Investments信贷和固定收益全球主管Steven Oh问道。“美联储将来会失去对它的控制，犯政策错误，没有能力控制它吗？”</blockquote></p><p> If the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储和债券市场对通胀的看法是错误的，那么央行可能不得不以比其和投资者希望的更快的速度结束疫情刺激措施。这将意味着取消大规模资产购买并尽早加息。</blockquote></p><p> Oh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.</p><p><blockquote>哦，我不认为会是这样。许多其他人也同意。他们认为，投资者必须牢记经济复苏的速度有多快。</blockquote></p><p> For that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就业市场和供应链出现混乱也就不足为奇了。恢复到2019年底和2020年初新冠肺炎之前的水平需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> \"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"</p><p><blockquote>财富管理公司Clarus Group的负责人布莱恩·科斯洛(Bryan Koslow)表示：“关于通货膨胀有很多问题，因为你在日常生活中都会看到它。”“但我们可能已经看到了峰值，尤其是在工资增长方面。”</blockquote></p><p> Even if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.</p><p><blockquote>即使事实证明这是真的，投资者和消费者如此关注价格这一事实也值得注意。十多年来，通货膨胀基本上不是问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理Troy Gayeski表示：“美联储必须认真对待通胀担忧。”他补充说，他认为通胀压力有20%的可能性变得更加持久，而不是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> \"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“自2008年以来，有意义的通胀风险一直不存在。直到现在，”Gayeski说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's getting more expensive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么越来越贵</b></blockquote></p><p> Food and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.</p><p><blockquote>食物和油漆并不是唯一变得更贵的东西。正如CNN商业频道的莫伊拉·里特(Moira Ritter)指出的那样，最近几乎所有东西的价格都在上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格飙升。房地产市场继续繁荣。这导致沙发和其他家居用品的价格大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>二手车也贵得多。这归因于人们重返工作岗位，以及由于芯片供应短缺损害了新车的生产，经销商处新车短缺。</blockquote></p><p> People are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.</p><p><blockquote>人们也越来越多地旅行。由于预期一些人所说的“炙手可热的疫苗之夏”，机票价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Up next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday: </b>US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H &amp; R Block (HRB)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期二：</b>美国零售额；美国生产者价格指数；Oracle(ORCL)和H&amp;R Block(HRB)的收益</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday: </b>Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期三：</b>美联储利率决定；美国新屋开工和建筑许可；EIA原油库存；Lennar(LEN)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Thursday: </b>US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)</p><p><blockquote><b>星期四：</b>美国初请失业金人数；克罗格(KR)和Adobe(ADBE)的收益</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/13/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145996523","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)There is a gigantic disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street when it comes to inflation. Something's got to give.\nThe US government reported last week that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose at their fastest clip since 1992 in May. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) is lifting the price of paint, one of many companies that's responding to higher commodities costs.\nFood prices are also surging. Chipotle (CMG) just raised prices. So did Campbell Soup (CPB).\nAnd the chief financial officer of restaurant and arcade chain Dave & Buster's (PLAY) said during a recent earnings call with analysts that he expects a 6% to 8% increase in food costs for 2021 due to higher chicken, beef and dairy prices.\nWages are rising too, especially for workers in the retail, leisure and hospitality sectors that are returning to jobs as the economy reopens. That adds to inflationary pressures, because some companies will choose to hike prices in order to maintain profits.\nLabor shortages aren't helping.\nThe CEO of online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY) wrote in a letter to shareholders after its latest earnings report that it \"faced labor shortages in our fulfillment centers similar to those being faced by many companies nationwide.\" As a result, Chewy continues \"to invest in higher wages and benefits\" in order to fill job vacancies.\nYet investors — and the Federal Reserve — are shrugging off rising inflation as \"transitory.\" Long-term bond yields are falling, which isn't what normally happens when inflation runs hot. If bond investors believed that price hikes are here to stay, they'd be demanding higher yields.\nAnd the market is pricing in just a 3% chance of a rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year. That's down from a 10% likelihood of higher rates just a month ago. Investors know a rate hike is the central bank's best tool to fight rising inflation, and they'll want to hear more on the subject when Fed chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference on Wednesday.\n\"The bond market is still not concerned about inflation. It's buying what the Fed is selling,\" said Randy Warren, CEO of Warren Financial.\nThe problem is that there is a chance the Fed could wait too long to react to inflation.\n\"Is inflation transitory or something more structural?\" asked Steven Oh, global head of credit and fixed income with PineBridge Investments. \"Will the Fed lose control of it down the road and make a policy error and not have the ability to rein it in?\"\nIf the Fed and bond market are wrong about inflation, the central bank may have to wind down its pandemic stimulus much more quickly than it — and investors — would like. That would mean unwinding its big asset purchases and raising rates sooner rather than later.\nOh doesn't think that will be the case. And many others agree. They argue that investors must keep in mind how rapidly the economy has roared back.\nFor that reason, it should not be that big of a surprise that there are dislocations in the job market and supply chain. It will take time for conditions to revert to what they were like in late 2019 and early 2020 before Covid-19.\n\"There are a lot of questions about inflation because you see it in everyday life,\" said Bryan Koslow, principal of Clarus Group, a wealth management firm. \"But we may have seen the peak, especially in terms of wage growth.\"\nEven if that does turn out to be true, the mere fact that investors and consumers are so focused on prices is noteworthy. Inflation has essentially been a non-issue for more than a decade.\n\"The Fed has to take the inflation concerns seriously,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. He added that he thinks there is a 20% chance that inflation pressures turn out to be more persistent as opposed to transitory.\n\"The risk of meaningful inflation has been non-existent since 2008. Until now,\" Gayeski said.\nWhat's getting more expensive\nFood and paint aren't the only things getting more expensive. As CNN Business' Moira Ritter points out, the prices of just about everything have gone up lately.\nLumber prices have soared. And the housing market continues to boom. That's led to a big spike in the prices of couches and other household furnishings.\nUsed cars are a lot more expensive too. Chalk that up to people returning to work and a dearth of new cars on dealership lots due to the chip supply shortage that has hurt production of new vehicles.\nPeople are traveling more as well. Airfares have shot up in anticipation of what some are dubbing the red hot vaccine summer.\nUp next\nTuesday: US retail sales; US producer price index; Earnings from Oracle (ORCL) and H & R Block (HRB)\nWednesday: Federal Reserve rate decision; US housing starts and building permits; EIA crude oil inventories; Earnings from Lennar (LEN)\nThursday: US jobless claims; Earnings from Kroger (KR) and Adobe (ADBE)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":134264986,"gmtCreate":1622243659745,"gmtModify":1634182592556,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Test","listText":"Test","text":"Test","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134264986","repostId":"1155283133","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114145366,"gmtCreate":1623060711355,"gmtModify":1634037390554,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114145366","repostId":"1130425727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183041520,"gmtCreate":1623296607860,"gmtModify":1634034840060,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183041520","repostId":"1143747111","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143747111","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623293378,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143747111?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 10:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession<blockquote>经济衰退期间最值得买入的3只科技股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143747111","media":"fool","summary":"Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending dec","content":"<p>Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending decreases, markets get volatile, and investors get nervous as they see a portion of their portfolios apparently begin to evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>经济衰退可能是一个压力很大的时期。一些人失业，预算收紧，支出减少，市场变得不稳定，投资者感到紧张，因为他们看到自己的一部分投资组合显然开始蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors panic and make the mistake of selling their stocks during a recession and lock in losses. But others know that recessions are a time to<i>buy</i>stock as they offer access to lower stock prices that can lay the foundation for tremendous returns once the economy recovers. The key to executing that last action successfully is to focus on buying stock in strong companies that can survive periods of soft demand and high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者惊慌失措，犯了在经济衰退期间出售股票并锁定损失的错误。但其他人知道经济衰退是一个<i>购买</i>股票，因为它们提供了较低股价的机会，可以为经济复苏后的巨额回报奠定基础。成功执行最后一项行动的关键是专注于购买能够度过需求疲软和高失业率时期的强大公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows when a recession will hit, but we do know there have been 18 recessions over the last century, so it's likely to happen again. The wise investor will do what it takes to be prepared for this eventuality.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道经济衰退何时会到来，但我们确实知道上个世纪已经发生了18次经济衰退，所以它很可能会再次发生。明智的投资者会尽一切努力为这种可能性做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Here are three relatively safe tech stocks that represent strong companies and I would buy them during the next recession.</p><p><blockquote>这里有三只相对安全的科技股，它们代表了强大的公司，我会在下一次经济衰退期间购买它们。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Microsoft</p><p><blockquote>1.微软</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft</b>'s(NASDAQ:MSFT)software is widely used by both consumers and businesses. There are more than 1 billion active devices that run on Windows 10, and the company reported that Office 365 usage was higher than ever last year. Microsoft is also a leader in helping organizations shift to digital technologies, whereMicrosoft Azureis emerging as a strong second-place competitor to<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)in the cloud services market.</p><p><blockquote><b>微软</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）的软件被消费者和企业广泛使用。运行Windows 10的活跃设备超过10亿台，该公司报告称，去年Office 365的使用量比以往任何时候都高。微软也是帮助组织转向数字技术的领导者，Microsoft Azures正在成为强大的第二名竞争对手<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）在云服务市场。</blockquote></p><p> Even with Microsoft's established brand and customer base, the company is not immune to dips in demand caused by recessions. For example, spending on technology could decline during a weak economy, pressuring Microsoft's revenue growth. But it's worth noting that spending on cloud services and infrastructure continued to increase during the pandemic as Microsoft benefited from the remote work trend, and CEO Satya Nadella believes the growing demand for digital services is just getting started.</p><p><blockquote>即使微软拥有成熟的品牌和客户群，该公司也不能幸免于经济衰退造成的需求下降。例如，在经济疲软期间，技术支出可能会下降，给微软的收入增长带来压力。但值得注意的是，随着微软受益于远程工作趋势，疫情期间云服务和基础设施支出持续增加，首席执行官Satya Nadella认为，对数字服务不断增长的需求才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> \"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down. They're accelerating, and it's just the beginning,\" Nadella stated in the fiscal Q3 2021 earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>纳德拉在2021财年第三季度财报中表示：“疫情爆发一年多来，数字采用曲线并没有放缓。它们正在加速，而这仅仅是个开始。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft estimates that 50 billion new devices will come online by 2030, and that could translate to tremendous growth in revenue for Azure -- not to mention demand for Microsoft's popular software tools like Word and Excel, which the company bundles as a subscription service with Microsoft 365.</p><p><blockquote>微软估计，到2030年，将有500亿台新设备上线，这可能会转化为Azure收入的巨大增长，更不用说对Word和Excel等微软流行软件工具的需求了，该公司将这些工具作为订阅服务与微软365捆绑在一起。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is a financial fortress. It ended the most recent quarter with a net cash position of $73 billion, and it generated $54 billion infree cash flowover the last four quarters.&nbsp;With that much cash sitting on the balance sheet and more coming in every year, Microsoft would likely be able to continue increasing its dividend payout even during challenging business conditions. The stock currently pays adividend yieldof 0.87%, representing a cash payout ratio of 30% relative to free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>微软是一个金融堡垒。截至最近一个季度末，该公司的净现金头寸为730亿美元，过去四个季度产生了540亿美元的自由现金流。由于资产负债表上有这么多现金，而且每年都有更多现金流入，微软可能能够继续即使在充满挑战的商业环境下也增加股息支付。该股目前支付的股息收益率为0.87%，相对于自由现金流的现金支付率为30%。</blockquote></p><p> The secular demand trend for digital enterprise software services should keep Microsoft growing over the long term, and its rock-solid financial position should provide a cushion to the stock price in the event of anothermarket correction.</p><p><blockquote>数字企业软件服务的长期需求趋势应该会使微软保持长期增长，其坚如磐石的财务状况应该会在市场再次调整时为股价提供缓冲。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Amazon</p><p><blockquote>2.亚马逊</blockquote></p><p> Amazon provides essential services through its grocery businesses (Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods). It's also the leader in cloud services with its Amazon Web Services business. But serving the consumer is still its bread and butter. The annualPrime Day(usually held in the summer months) has become just as big as Black Friday, and the event provides Amazon an opportunity to reach new customers with its Prime membership program.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊通过其杂货业务（亚马逊生鲜和全食）提供基本服务。它也是云服务领域的领导者，拥有亚马逊网络服务业务。但是为消费者服务仍然是它的面包和黄油。一年一度的Prime Day（通常在夏季举行）已经变得和黑色星期五一样重要，该活动为亚马逊提供了通过Prime会员计划接触新客户的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon generated $419 billion in revenue over the last year, and it continues to grow very fast for a large business. Revenue has doubled over the last three years, with growth accelerating during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊去年创造了4190亿美元的收入，对于一家大型企业来说，它继续快速增长。过去三年，收入翻了一番，疫情期间增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Still, not all recessions may turn out as well for the e-commerce giant. Amazon sells a lot of consumer electronics and other nonessential items that people may not purchase during a prolonged recession.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，并非所有经济衰退对这家电子商务巨头来说都是如此。亚马逊销售许多消费电子产品和其他人们在长期经济衰退期间可能不会购买的非必需品。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, many customers would likely stick with their Prime memberships to enjoy movies, music, and free grocery delivery. Amazon now has more than 200 million loyal patrons through Prime, and the company is seeing Prime engagement continue to rise, providing a stickier ecosystem of services for consumers.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，许多顾客可能会坚持使用Prime会员资格来享受电影、音乐和免费杂货配送。亚马逊目前通过Prime拥有超过2亿忠实顾客，该公司看到Prime参与度持续上升，为消费者提供了更具粘性的服务生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> Like Microsoft, Amazon generates a substantial amount of free cash flow to continue investing in the future no matter what the economy is doing. Over the last four quarters, Amazon generated $26.4 billion in free cash flow.&nbsp;Most of its operating profit comes from cloud services, where Amazon Web Services made up 11.6% of total revenue on a trailing-12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>与微软一样，无论经济状况如何，亚马逊都会产生大量自由现金流来继续投资未来。在过去的四个季度中，亚马逊产生了264亿美元的自由现金流。其大部分营业利润来自云服务，亚马逊网络服务在过去12个月中占总收入的11.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While Amazon doesn't pay a dividend, that's sort of a good thing at this juncture, because it means management is still seeing tremendous opportunities to invest in building more fulfillment warehouses and its own transportation fleet to meet growing demand. This is a top growth stock to consider buying when the next market correction strikes.</p><p><blockquote>虽然亚马逊不支付股息，但在这个节骨眼上这是一件好事，因为这意味着管理层仍然看到了投资建设更多履行仓库和自己的运输车队以满足不断增长的需求的巨大机会。当下一次市场调整来袭时，这是一只值得考虑购买的顶级成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc76a43a51b8c48de3337ad1dea22962\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AAPLDATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AAPL数据来自YCHARTS</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 3. Apple</p><p><blockquote>3.苹果</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:AAPL)is one of the most iconic consumer brands in the world. Sure, sales of its pricey aluminum-clad devices would likely suffer if people didn't have money to spend, but the company also has a growing revenue stream from subscription services, and it generates plenty of cash to continue paying a regular dividend to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）是世界上最具标志性的消费品牌之一。当然，如果人们没有钱花，其昂贵的铝包设备的销售可能会受到影响，但该公司的订阅服务收入来源也在不断增长，并且它产生了大量现金来继续向股东支付定期股息。</blockquote></p><p> While iPhone revenue dropped 3.3% in fiscal 2020 (which ended in September), Apple saw sales of its Macs, iPads, and wearables grow at healthy rates during the pandemic. And since the iPhone 12 launched in the fall, Apple's revenue growth has accelerated to 53% year over year in the quarter that ended in March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然iPhone收入在2020财年（截至9月）下降了3.3%，但苹果的Mac、iPad和可穿戴设备的销量在疫情期间以健康的速度增长。自iPhone 12秋季推出以来，截至3月份的季度，苹果的收入同比增长已加速至53%。</blockquote></p><p> Most importantly, Apple's installed base of active devices continues to hit new records. The new Macs and iPad Pros featuringApple's new M1 chip have rejuvenated salesof these products&nbsp;-- a great sign of Apple's brand strength in the marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，苹果的活跃设备安装基数继续创下新纪录。采用苹果新M1芯片的新款Mac和iPad Pro重振了这些产品的销售，这是苹果在市场上品牌实力的一个很好的标志。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently pays a dividend yield of 0.67%, with a current cash payout ratio of 15.7% of trailing free cash flow. While shares are up 50% over the last year, the forwardprice-to-earnings ratiois roughly in line with that of the broader market at 24 times expected earnings. At this valuation level, there might be more room for upside in the near term, especially if the iPhone upgrade cycle remains stronger than investors expect.</p><p><blockquote>该股目前支付的股息收益率为0.67%，当前现金支付率为追踪自由现金流的15.7%。虽然股价比去年上涨了50%，但远期市盈率与大盘大致一致，为预期市盈率的24倍。在这个估值水平下，短期内可能会有更大的上涨空间，特别是如果iPhone升级周期仍然强于投资者的预期。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call in late April, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted that 5G penetration is \"still low at this point,\" with a lot of upgrades still in front of the company.</p><p><blockquote>在4月下旬的财报看涨期权上，苹果首席执行官Tim Cook指出，5G渗透率“目前仍然很低”，公司面前仍有很多升级。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e5874f0d32193fcda101a46ff8ad430\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AAPL PE RATIO (FORWARD)DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的AAPL市盈率（远期）数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the event of another recession, investors can feel confident that Apple's business won't be starving for funds to keep cranking out new products -- and most importantly, keeping its employees happily on the payroll.</p><p><blockquote>如果再次出现经济衰退，投资者可以相信苹果的业务不会缺乏资金来继续开发新产品，最重要的是，让员工愉快地享受工资。</blockquote></p><p> Apple ended the fiscal second quarter with net cash of $87 billion on the books. While management is working toward a cash-neutral position on its balance sheet,&nbsp;Apple continues to gush more every year, with trailing free cash flow topping $90 billion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第二财季结束时账面净现金为870亿美元。虽然管理层正在努力在资产负债表上实现现金中性，但苹果每年都会继续增加资金，追踪自由现金流超过900亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key takeaway</p><p><blockquote>关键要点</blockquote></p><p> Shares ofleading tech stocksthat generate substantial amounts of free cash flow will be relatively safe bets during a recession. Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple possess these traits in spades. These companies are dominant sector leaders that should reward investors for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>在经济衰退期间，产生大量自由现金流的领先科技股的股票将是相对安全的押注。微软、亚马逊和苹果绝对具备这些特征。这些公司是占主导地位的行业领导者，应该在未来几年回报投资者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession<blockquote>经济衰退期间最值得买入的3只科技股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Top Tech Stocks to Buy During a Recession<blockquote>经济衰退期间最值得买入的3只科技股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 10:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending decreases, markets get volatile, and investors get nervous as they see a portion of their portfolios apparently begin to evaporate.</p><p><blockquote>经济衰退可能是一个压力很大的时期。一些人失业，预算收紧，支出减少，市场变得不稳定，投资者感到紧张，因为他们看到自己的一部分投资组合显然开始蒸发。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors panic and make the mistake of selling their stocks during a recession and lock in losses. But others know that recessions are a time to<i>buy</i>stock as they offer access to lower stock prices that can lay the foundation for tremendous returns once the economy recovers. The key to executing that last action successfully is to focus on buying stock in strong companies that can survive periods of soft demand and high unemployment.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者惊慌失措，犯了在经济衰退期间出售股票并锁定损失的错误。但其他人知道经济衰退是一个<i>购买</i>股票，因为它们提供了较低股价的机会，可以为经济复苏后的巨额回报奠定基础。成功执行最后一项行动的关键是专注于购买能够度过需求疲软和高失业率时期的强大公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows when a recession will hit, but we do know there have been 18 recessions over the last century, so it's likely to happen again. The wise investor will do what it takes to be prepared for this eventuality.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道经济衰退何时会到来，但我们确实知道上个世纪已经发生了18次经济衰退，所以它很可能会再次发生。明智的投资者会尽一切努力为这种可能性做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> Here are three relatively safe tech stocks that represent strong companies and I would buy them during the next recession.</p><p><blockquote>这里有三只相对安全的科技股，它们代表了强大的公司，我会在下一次经济衰退期间购买它们。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Microsoft</p><p><blockquote>1.微软</blockquote></p><p> <b>Microsoft</b>'s(NASDAQ:MSFT)software is widely used by both consumers and businesses. There are more than 1 billion active devices that run on Windows 10, and the company reported that Office 365 usage was higher than ever last year. Microsoft is also a leader in helping organizations shift to digital technologies, whereMicrosoft Azureis emerging as a strong second-place competitor to<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)in the cloud services market.</p><p><blockquote><b>微软</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）的软件被消费者和企业广泛使用。运行Windows 10的活跃设备超过10亿台，该公司报告称，去年Office 365的使用量比以往任何时候都高。微软也是帮助组织转向数字技术的领导者，Microsoft Azures正在成为强大的第二名竞争对手<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克：AMZN）在云服务市场。</blockquote></p><p> Even with Microsoft's established brand and customer base, the company is not immune to dips in demand caused by recessions. For example, spending on technology could decline during a weak economy, pressuring Microsoft's revenue growth. But it's worth noting that spending on cloud services and infrastructure continued to increase during the pandemic as Microsoft benefited from the remote work trend, and CEO Satya Nadella believes the growing demand for digital services is just getting started.</p><p><blockquote>即使微软拥有成熟的品牌和客户群，该公司也不能幸免于经济衰退造成的需求下降。例如，在经济疲软期间，技术支出可能会下降，给微软的收入增长带来压力。但值得注意的是，随着微软受益于远程工作趋势，疫情期间云服务和基础设施支出持续增加，首席执行官Satya Nadella认为，对数字服务不断增长的需求才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> \"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down. They're accelerating, and it's just the beginning,\" Nadella stated in the fiscal Q3 2021 earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>纳德拉在2021财年第三季度财报中表示：“疫情爆发一年多来，数字采用曲线并没有放缓。它们正在加速，而这仅仅是个开始。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft estimates that 50 billion new devices will come online by 2030, and that could translate to tremendous growth in revenue for Azure -- not to mention demand for Microsoft's popular software tools like Word and Excel, which the company bundles as a subscription service with Microsoft 365.</p><p><blockquote>微软估计，到2030年，将有500亿台新设备上线，这可能会转化为Azure收入的巨大增长，更不用说对Word和Excel等微软流行软件工具的需求了，该公司将这些工具作为订阅服务与微软365捆绑在一起。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is a financial fortress. It ended the most recent quarter with a net cash position of $73 billion, and it generated $54 billion infree cash flowover the last four quarters.&nbsp;With that much cash sitting on the balance sheet and more coming in every year, Microsoft would likely be able to continue increasing its dividend payout even during challenging business conditions. The stock currently pays adividend yieldof 0.87%, representing a cash payout ratio of 30% relative to free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>微软是一个金融堡垒。截至最近一个季度末，该公司的净现金头寸为730亿美元，过去四个季度产生了540亿美元的自由现金流。由于资产负债表上有这么多现金，而且每年都有更多现金流入，微软可能能够继续即使在充满挑战的商业环境下也增加股息支付。该股目前支付的股息收益率为0.87%，相对于自由现金流的现金支付率为30%。</blockquote></p><p> The secular demand trend for digital enterprise software services should keep Microsoft growing over the long term, and its rock-solid financial position should provide a cushion to the stock price in the event of anothermarket correction.</p><p><blockquote>数字企业软件服务的长期需求趋势应该会使微软保持长期增长，其坚如磐石的财务状况应该会在市场再次调整时为股价提供缓冲。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Amazon</p><p><blockquote>2.亚马逊</blockquote></p><p> Amazon provides essential services through its grocery businesses (Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods). It's also the leader in cloud services with its Amazon Web Services business. But serving the consumer is still its bread and butter. The annualPrime Day(usually held in the summer months) has become just as big as Black Friday, and the event provides Amazon an opportunity to reach new customers with its Prime membership program.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊通过其杂货业务（亚马逊生鲜和全食）提供基本服务。它也是云服务领域的领导者，拥有亚马逊网络服务业务。但是为消费者服务仍然是它的面包和黄油。一年一度的Prime Day（通常在夏季举行）已经变得和黑色星期五一样重要，该活动为亚马逊提供了通过Prime会员计划接触新客户的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon generated $419 billion in revenue over the last year, and it continues to grow very fast for a large business. Revenue has doubled over the last three years, with growth accelerating during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊去年创造了4190亿美元的收入，对于一家大型企业来说，它继续快速增长。过去三年，收入翻了一番，疫情期间增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Still, not all recessions may turn out as well for the e-commerce giant. Amazon sells a lot of consumer electronics and other nonessential items that people may not purchase during a prolonged recession.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，并非所有经济衰退对这家电子商务巨头来说都是如此。亚马逊销售许多消费电子产品和其他人们在长期经济衰退期间可能不会购买的非必需品。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, many customers would likely stick with their Prime memberships to enjoy movies, music, and free grocery delivery. Amazon now has more than 200 million loyal patrons through Prime, and the company is seeing Prime engagement continue to rise, providing a stickier ecosystem of services for consumers.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，许多顾客可能会坚持使用Prime会员资格来享受电影、音乐和免费杂货配送。亚马逊目前通过Prime拥有超过2亿忠实顾客，该公司看到Prime参与度持续上升，为消费者提供了更具粘性的服务生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> Like Microsoft, Amazon generates a substantial amount of free cash flow to continue investing in the future no matter what the economy is doing. Over the last four quarters, Amazon generated $26.4 billion in free cash flow.&nbsp;Most of its operating profit comes from cloud services, where Amazon Web Services made up 11.6% of total revenue on a trailing-12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>与微软一样，无论经济状况如何，亚马逊都会产生大量自由现金流来继续投资未来。在过去的四个季度中，亚马逊产生了264亿美元的自由现金流。其大部分营业利润来自云服务，亚马逊网络服务在过去12个月中占总收入的11.6%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While Amazon doesn't pay a dividend, that's sort of a good thing at this juncture, because it means management is still seeing tremendous opportunities to invest in building more fulfillment warehouses and its own transportation fleet to meet growing demand. This is a top growth stock to consider buying when the next market correction strikes.</p><p><blockquote>虽然亚马逊不支付股息，但在这个节骨眼上这是一件好事，因为这意味着管理层仍然看到了投资建设更多履行仓库和自己的运输车队以满足不断增长的需求的巨大机会。当下一次市场调整来袭时，这是一只值得考虑购买的顶级成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc76a43a51b8c48de3337ad1dea22962\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AAPLDATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AAPL数据来自YCHARTS</span></p></blockquote></p><p> 3. Apple</p><p><blockquote>3.苹果</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple</b>(NASDAQ:AAPL)is one of the most iconic consumer brands in the world. Sure, sales of its pricey aluminum-clad devices would likely suffer if people didn't have money to spend, but the company also has a growing revenue stream from subscription services, and it generates plenty of cash to continue paying a regular dividend to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）是世界上最具标志性的消费品牌之一。当然，如果人们没有钱花，其昂贵的铝包设备的销售可能会受到影响，但该公司的订阅服务收入来源也在不断增长，并且它产生了大量现金来继续向股东支付定期股息。</blockquote></p><p> While iPhone revenue dropped 3.3% in fiscal 2020 (which ended in September), Apple saw sales of its Macs, iPads, and wearables grow at healthy rates during the pandemic. And since the iPhone 12 launched in the fall, Apple's revenue growth has accelerated to 53% year over year in the quarter that ended in March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然iPhone收入在2020财年（截至9月）下降了3.3%，但苹果的Mac、iPad和可穿戴设备的销量在疫情期间以健康的速度增长。自iPhone 12秋季推出以来，截至3月份的季度，苹果的收入同比增长已加速至53%。</blockquote></p><p> Most importantly, Apple's installed base of active devices continues to hit new records. The new Macs and iPad Pros featuringApple's new M1 chip have rejuvenated salesof these products&nbsp;-- a great sign of Apple's brand strength in the marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，苹果的活跃设备安装基数继续创下新纪录。采用苹果新M1芯片的新款Mac和iPad Pro重振了这些产品的销售，这是苹果在市场上品牌实力的一个很好的标志。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently pays a dividend yield of 0.67%, with a current cash payout ratio of 15.7% of trailing free cash flow. While shares are up 50% over the last year, the forwardprice-to-earnings ratiois roughly in line with that of the broader market at 24 times expected earnings. At this valuation level, there might be more room for upside in the near term, especially if the iPhone upgrade cycle remains stronger than investors expect.</p><p><blockquote>该股目前支付的股息收益率为0.67%，当前现金支付率为追踪自由现金流的15.7%。虽然股价比去年上涨了50%，但远期市盈率与大盘大致一致，为预期市盈率的24倍。在这个估值水平下，短期内可能会有更大的上涨空间，特别是如果iPhone升级周期仍然强于投资者的预期。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call in late April, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted that 5G penetration is \"still low at this point,\" with a lot of upgrades still in front of the company.</p><p><blockquote>在4月下旬的财报看涨期权上，苹果首席执行官Tim Cook指出，5G渗透率“目前仍然很低”，公司面前仍有很多升级。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e5874f0d32193fcda101a46ff8ad430\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>AAPL PE RATIO (FORWARD)DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的AAPL市盈率（远期）数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the event of another recession, investors can feel confident that Apple's business won't be starving for funds to keep cranking out new products -- and most importantly, keeping its employees happily on the payroll.</p><p><blockquote>如果再次出现经济衰退，投资者可以相信苹果的业务不会缺乏资金来继续开发新产品，最重要的是，让员工愉快地享受工资。</blockquote></p><p> Apple ended the fiscal second quarter with net cash of $87 billion on the books. While management is working toward a cash-neutral position on its balance sheet,&nbsp;Apple continues to gush more every year, with trailing free cash flow topping $90 billion.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第二财季结束时账面净现金为870亿美元。虽然管理层正在努力在资产负债表上实现现金中性，但苹果每年都会继续增加资金，追踪自由现金流超过900亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key takeaway</p><p><blockquote>关键要点</blockquote></p><p> Shares ofleading tech stocksthat generate substantial amounts of free cash flow will be relatively safe bets during a recession. Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple possess these traits in spades. These companies are dominant sector leaders that should reward investors for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>在经济衰退期间，产生大量自由现金流的领先科技股的股票将是相对安全的押注。微软、亚马逊和苹果绝对具备这些特征。这些公司是占主导地位的行业领导者，应该在未来几年回报投资者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/3-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-during-a-recession/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/09/3-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-during-a-recession/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143747111","content_text":"Arecessioncan be a very stressful period. Some people lose their jobs, budgets tighten, spending decreases, markets get volatile, and investors get nervous as they see a portion of their portfolios apparently begin to evaporate.\nSome investors panic and make the mistake of selling their stocks during a recession and lock in losses. But others know that recessions are a time tobuystock as they offer access to lower stock prices that can lay the foundation for tremendous returns once the economy recovers. The key to executing that last action successfully is to focus on buying stock in strong companies that can survive periods of soft demand and high unemployment.\nNo one knows when a recession will hit, but we do know there have been 18 recessions over the last century, so it's likely to happen again. The wise investor will do what it takes to be prepared for this eventuality.\nHere are three relatively safe tech stocks that represent strong companies and I would buy them during the next recession.\n1. Microsoft\nMicrosoft's(NASDAQ:MSFT)software is widely used by both consumers and businesses. There are more than 1 billion active devices that run on Windows 10, and the company reported that Office 365 usage was higher than ever last year. Microsoft is also a leader in helping organizations shift to digital technologies, whereMicrosoft Azureis emerging as a strong second-place competitor toAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)in the cloud services market.\nEven with Microsoft's established brand and customer base, the company is not immune to dips in demand caused by recessions. For example, spending on technology could decline during a weak economy, pressuring Microsoft's revenue growth. But it's worth noting that spending on cloud services and infrastructure continued to increase during the pandemic as Microsoft benefited from the remote work trend, and CEO Satya Nadella believes the growing demand for digital services is just getting started.\n\"Over a year into the pandemic, digital adoption curves aren't slowing down. They're accelerating, and it's just the beginning,\" Nadella stated in the fiscal Q3 2021 earnings report.\nMicrosoft estimates that 50 billion new devices will come online by 2030, and that could translate to tremendous growth in revenue for Azure -- not to mention demand for Microsoft's popular software tools like Word and Excel, which the company bundles as a subscription service with Microsoft 365.\nMicrosoft is a financial fortress. It ended the most recent quarter with a net cash position of $73 billion, and it generated $54 billion infree cash flowover the last four quarters. With that much cash sitting on the balance sheet and more coming in every year, Microsoft would likely be able to continue increasing its dividend payout even during challenging business conditions. The stock currently pays adividend yieldof 0.87%, representing a cash payout ratio of 30% relative to free cash flow.\nThe secular demand trend for digital enterprise software services should keep Microsoft growing over the long term, and its rock-solid financial position should provide a cushion to the stock price in the event of anothermarket correction.\n2. Amazon\nAmazon provides essential services through its grocery businesses (Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods). It's also the leader in cloud services with its Amazon Web Services business. But serving the consumer is still its bread and butter. The annualPrime Day(usually held in the summer months) has become just as big as Black Friday, and the event provides Amazon an opportunity to reach new customers with its Prime membership program.\nAmazon generated $419 billion in revenue over the last year, and it continues to grow very fast for a large business. Revenue has doubled over the last three years, with growth accelerating during the pandemic.\nStill, not all recessions may turn out as well for the e-commerce giant. Amazon sells a lot of consumer electronics and other nonessential items that people may not purchase during a prolonged recession.\nOn the other hand, many customers would likely stick with their Prime memberships to enjoy movies, music, and free grocery delivery. Amazon now has more than 200 million loyal patrons through Prime, and the company is seeing Prime engagement continue to rise, providing a stickier ecosystem of services for consumers.\nLike Microsoft, Amazon generates a substantial amount of free cash flow to continue investing in the future no matter what the economy is doing. Over the last four quarters, Amazon generated $26.4 billion in free cash flow. Most of its operating profit comes from cloud services, where Amazon Web Services made up 11.6% of total revenue on a trailing-12-month basis.\nWhile Amazon doesn't pay a dividend, that's sort of a good thing at this juncture, because it means management is still seeing tremendous opportunities to invest in building more fulfillment warehouses and its own transportation fleet to meet growing demand. This is a top growth stock to consider buying when the next market correction strikes.\nAAPLDATA BY YCHARTS\n3. Apple\nApple(NASDAQ:AAPL)is one of the most iconic consumer brands in the world. Sure, sales of its pricey aluminum-clad devices would likely suffer if people didn't have money to spend, but the company also has a growing revenue stream from subscription services, and it generates plenty of cash to continue paying a regular dividend to shareholders.\nWhile iPhone revenue dropped 3.3% in fiscal 2020 (which ended in September), Apple saw sales of its Macs, iPads, and wearables grow at healthy rates during the pandemic. And since the iPhone 12 launched in the fall, Apple's revenue growth has accelerated to 53% year over year in the quarter that ended in March.\nMost importantly, Apple's installed base of active devices continues to hit new records. The new Macs and iPad Pros featuringApple's new M1 chip have rejuvenated salesof these products -- a great sign of Apple's brand strength in the marketplace.\nThe stock currently pays a dividend yield of 0.67%, with a current cash payout ratio of 15.7% of trailing free cash flow. While shares are up 50% over the last year, the forwardprice-to-earnings ratiois roughly in line with that of the broader market at 24 times expected earnings. At this valuation level, there might be more room for upside in the near term, especially if the iPhone upgrade cycle remains stronger than investors expect.\nDuring the earnings call in late April, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted that 5G penetration is \"still low at this point,\" with a lot of upgrades still in front of the company.\nAAPL PE RATIO (FORWARD)DATA BY YCHARTS\nIn the event of another recession, investors can feel confident that Apple's business won't be starving for funds to keep cranking out new products -- and most importantly, keeping its employees happily on the payroll.\nApple ended the fiscal second quarter with net cash of $87 billion on the books. While management is working toward a cash-neutral position on its balance sheet, Apple continues to gush more every year, with trailing free cash flow topping $90 billion.\nThe key takeaway\nShares ofleading tech stocksthat generate substantial amounts of free cash flow will be relatively safe bets during a recession. Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple possess these traits in spades. These companies are dominant sector leaders that should reward investors for years to come.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116228490,"gmtCreate":1622805795010,"gmtModify":1634097850384,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪] [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116228490","repostId":"1119332623","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":113452586,"gmtCreate":1622636096145,"gmtModify":1634099731006,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好高","listText":"好高","text":"好高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113452586","repostId":"2140416949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140416949","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622630403,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140416949?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 18:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140416949","media":"智通财经网","summary":"“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。\n\n有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔","content":"<p>“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0991ce9046f207d4130716b72c2b2b02\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔已经重复数百遍这并不暗示着美联储宽松的政策要转向，但可能不足以平息市场恐慌。</p>\n<p>事实上，美联储货币政策可能存在更大的威胁，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0N4T.UK\">北欧联合银行</a>上周写道，美联储在6月10日发布的5月通胀报告将非常有可能是一个“震惊”的消息，因为当前汽车和货车使用量在以50%的年增长率增长，住房租金年增长率存在潜在的上涨空间。</p>\n<p>对于那些还没有了解二手车市场情况的人，这里有一张Mannheim二手车指数的图表可供参考：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9760ce507bb6caf12156a19fc79326ca\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"912\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>据Apartment List的数据显示，住房租金在经历了一段时间的下滑后，这个CPI和PCE篮子中的关键组成部分突然暴涨。美国全国租金中值刚刚创下有记录以来的最高涨幅。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d5ea7fbded6605c2bf42d32832ec86\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张图表促使北欧<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASBC\">联合银行</a>作出一个预测：“不排除美国5月核心CPI通胀达到4%”，<b>若这一幕出现，恐将导致市场对美联储的“暂时性通胀”理论失去信任，甚至连民主党政客也要求美联储开始缩减购债规模。 </b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880ca75b3087a5e56e0a38dc72a8cc50\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然，有可能情况没那么糟糕，甚至会转向好的一面，一些人已经开始关注下一个阶段的价格下跌，例如近日大宗商品价格有下行趋势。分析师指出需求增长存在放缓的初步迹象，供给也将开始增加，价格可能最终会温和上涨，随之而来的是良性通胀。</p>\n<p>以木材和住房供给为例：此前木材新订单高于产量、库存下降，一度引发价格飙升；但是现在，木材产量已经追上了订单，木材库存趋于稳定。许多经济学家，其中包括美联储，预计这种模式将在经济的其他领域重演。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1af1f2f95edcf3700e6feda7edddd67b\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储面临的最大威胁：核心CPI在两周内将达到4%？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 18:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/486893.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“美元流动性泛滥”之类的报道近日疯狂刷屏。上周，美联储逆回购工具一度创下了4850亿美元的纪录高位。\n\n有人担心，美联储回购工具的大幅使用或迫使美联储在6月的会议上上调超额准备金率5个基点。虽然鲍威尔已经重复数百遍这并不暗示着美联储宽松的政策要转向，但可能不足以平息市场恐慌。\n事实上，美联储货币政策可能存在更大的威胁，北欧联合银行上周写道，美联储在6月10日发布的5月通胀报告将非常有可能是一个“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/486893.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d404e53536bd5bd25337ed01def7224","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 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List的数据显示，住房租金在经历了一段时间的下滑后，这个CPI和PCE篮子中的关键组成部分突然暴涨。美国全国租金中值刚刚创下有记录以来的最高涨幅。\n\n这张图表促使北欧联合银行作出一个预测：“不排除美国5月核心CPI通胀达到4%”，若这一幕出现，恐将导致市场对美联储的“暂时性通胀”理论失去信任，甚至连民主党政客也要求美联储开始缩减购债规模。 \n\n当然，有可能情况没那么糟糕，甚至会转向好的一面，一些人已经开始关注下一个阶段的价格下跌，例如近日大宗商品价格有下行趋势。分析师指出需求增长存在放缓的初步迹象，供给也将开始增加，价格可能最终会温和上涨，随之而来的是良性通胀。\n以木材和住房供给为例：此前木材新订单高于产量、库存下降，一度引发价格飙升；但是现在，木材产量已经追上了订单，木材库存趋于稳定。许多经济学家，其中包括美联储，预计这种模式将在经济的其他领域重演。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":119612315,"gmtCreate":1622541263137,"gmtModify":1634100672602,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真行","listText":"真行","text":"真行","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119612315","repostId":"1109109753","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185983922,"gmtCreate":1623630502366,"gmtModify":1634031039806,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"d63a8e4","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] 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