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2021-07-13

Great and good , please like me . Many thanks....

@小虎周报:美股周策略：最强季度来了，银行股撒钱“助兴"新财季了

2021-07-12

Like and share[微笑]

Morgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade

2021-07-01

Feeling[微笑]

2021-06-20

Yes, Like and have a nice day . Stay safe.....

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2021-06-17

$MESA 20210716 12.5 CALL(MESA)$累呀

2021-05-31

Like and share

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2021-05-31

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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2021-05-31

Ok, thanks

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Many thanks....","listText":"Great and good , please like me . Many thanks....","text":"Great and good , please like me . Many thanks....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142683022","repostId":"146690735","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":146690735,"gmtCreate":1626073033623,"gmtModify":1744960706953,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"美股周策略：最强季度来了，银行股撒钱“助兴\"新财季了","htmlText":"7月初美股继续延续涨势，和过去大部分年份里的7月上旬一样，季报前的盈利上调仍然是美股上扬的主要催化剂。尤其是今天的特殊性在于：1.美股盈利受基数还有全面免疫，复工复产等因素影响，二季度属于增长最强的季度（目前预期为同比+64%），这将是10多年以来单季最高增长率，也是全年的顶点。 2.与此同时，货币政策也需要等待更多就业数据来当论据，这部分至少要在8月份公布7月非农数据时，才会有参考价值。因此在真正季报披露前，市场笃定盈利预跑行情（Earning Run）推动美股先行上涨就不足为奇。<a href=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/380f894305880218021c392808c43a0b\" target=\"_blank\">《2H展望，疫情后美股上涨的核心逻辑能否延续？》20210705</a> 前情回顾：从6月底的回购、派息力度看，交易型银行对投资者更加友好 财报方面，本周打头阵的依旧是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">$花旗(C)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$高盛(GS)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">$摩根士丹利(MS)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$美国银行(BAC)$</a> 等大型银行。年初以来，标普500指数累计上涨16%，银行板块累计涨幅超过20%，轻松跑赢大盘。 先看今年6月份银行业压力测试，从区域上看，大部门银行都宣布了提高派息，这一点美国银行业继续领先于欧洲银行业； 目前可以定量观察的在于，美国银行业普遍提高了股息率，结合公司公开披露","listText":"7月初美股继续延续涨势，和过去大部分年份里的7月上旬一样，季报前的盈利上调仍然是美股上扬的主要催化剂。尤其是今天的特殊性在于：1.美股盈利受基数还有全面免疫，复工复产等因素影响，二季度属于增长最强的季度（目前预期为同比+64%），这将是10多年以来单季最高增长率，也是全年的顶点。 2.与此同时，货币政策也需要等待更多就业数据来当论据，这部分至少要在8月份公布7月非农数据时，才会有参考价值。因此在真正季报披露前，市场笃定盈利预跑行情（Earning Run）推动美股先行上涨就不足为奇。<a href=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/380f894305880218021c392808c43a0b\" target=\"_blank\">《2H展望，疫情后美股上涨的核心逻辑能否延续？》20210705</a> 前情回顾：从6月底的回购、派息力度看，交易型银行对投资者更加友好 财报方面，本周打头阵的依旧是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">$花旗(C)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$高盛(GS)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">$摩根士丹利(MS)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$美国银行(BAC)$</a> 等大型银行。年初以来，标普500指数累计上涨16%，银行板块累计涨幅超过20%，轻松跑赢大盘。 先看今年6月份银行业压力测试，从区域上看，大部门银行都宣布了提高派息，这一点美国银行业继续领先于欧洲银行业； 目前可以定量观察的在于，美国银行业普遍提高了股息率，结合公司公开披露","text":"7月初美股继续延续涨势，和过去大部分年份里的7月上旬一样，季报前的盈利上调仍然是美股上扬的主要催化剂。尤其是今天的特殊性在于：1.美股盈利受基数还有全面免疫，复工复产等因素影响，二季度属于增长最强的季度（目前预期为同比+64%），这将是10多年以来单季最高增长率，也是全年的顶点。 2.与此同时，货币政策也需要等待更多就业数据来当论据，这部分至少要在8月份公布7月非农数据时，才会有参考价值。因此在真正季报披露前，市场笃定盈利预跑行情（Earning Run）推动美股先行上涨就不足为奇。《2H展望，疫情后美股上涨的核心逻辑能否延续？》20210705 前情回顾：从6月底的回购、派息力度看，交易型银行对投资者更加友好 财报方面，本周打头阵的依旧是$摩根大通(JPM)$ 、$花旗(C)$ 、$高盛(GS)$ 、$摩根士丹利(MS)$ 、$美国银行(BAC)$ 等大型银行。年初以来，标普500指数累计上涨16%，银行板块累计涨幅超过20%，轻松跑赢大盘。 先看今年6月份银行业压力测试，从区域上看，大部门银行都宣布了提高派息，这一点美国银行业继续领先于欧洲银行业； 目前可以定量观察的在于，美国银行业普遍提高了股息率，结合公司公开披露","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab5d24cf5d78354c607981555b0a266","width":"1183","height":"679"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146690735","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146362220,"gmtCreate":1626054505460,"gmtModify":1633930608327,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"Like and share[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146362220","repostId":"1144170422","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144170422","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626053515,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144170422?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144170422","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the Sunday Startabout the first growth scare of the new cycle (see Th","content":"<p>Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the&nbsp;<i>Sunday Start</i>about the first growth scare of the new cycle (<i>see&nbsp;Three Reasons Why the Recovery Is on Track, July 26, 2020</i>). Then, a rise in COVID-19 cases sparked fears of renewed lockdowns, and the delay in passing additional fiscal stimulus in the US led to concerns that the consumption recovery would sputter.</p>\n<p>Today, we are facing another growth scare. Just like the last time, we see good reasons why these fears will fade.</p>\n<p><b>#1 – The virus/economy equation continues to evolve</b></p>\n<p>The more transmissible Delta variant is leading to a renewed rise in cases, particularly among unvaccinated populations. Encouragingly, while case counts are rising, all indications are that existing vaccines are still highly effective in preventing severe illness and, more importantly, hospitalisations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b35c364dd1dd5e19aa143af89201a35\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Hence, for economies with relatively high vaccination rates, like the US, UK and euro area, we don’t expect hospital system capacity to be overwhelmed and thus see a low probability of strict lockdowns returning. For economies which are lagging in their vaccination efforts, for instance parts of Asia, the risk is that variants will delay a full relaxation of restrictions. While the recovery in external demand and capex is advancing for these economies, we see domestic consumption being held back over the next 3-4 months. However, vaccinations are expected to pick up, which would give policy-makers greater flexibility to reopen their economies, setting the stage for a broad-based recovery to take hold late this year.</p>\n<p><b>#2 – US: Withdrawal of policy support is not as premature as you think</b></p>\n<p>As recoveries progress and economies move towards a self-sustaining path, it is only natural for policy-makers to start thinking about exit strategies. However, we believe that neither fiscal nor monetary policy support will be&nbsp;removed at a faster pace than warranted.</p>\n<p>The US economy is already on a strong footing. Wage incomes stand at 105% of pre-COVID-19 levels, real investment is already 4% higher and GDP has reached its pre-COVID-19 path.</p>\n<p>While the fiscal impulse is turning negative this year, its impact on growth has been overstated. That’s because fiscal measures have largely taken the form of transfers to households. In fact, the excess transfers are still sitting on household balance sheets, waiting to be spent. US households have accumulated US$2.3 trillion in excess saving, and our strong US GDP growth forecasts of 7.1%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022 don’t assume that this stock will have to be drawn down.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8337c2c7520872d704e9497f4436a5d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As regards the Fed, our chief US economist Ellen Zentner continues to expect&nbsp;forward guidance in September&nbsp;and an official announcement of tapering in March, with the risks skewed towards an earlier start. By the time tapering starts, we forecast that the US economy will be well above its pre-COVID-19 path, core PCE inflation will exceed 2%Y sustainably (adjusted for base effects and transitory factors) and U-6 unemployment (the broadest measure) will reach ~8.5% (versus a pre-pandemic low of 7%) as compared to 13% during the time of tapering in December 2013 – hardly conditions that indicate the withdrawal of accommodation is premature.</p>\n<p><b>#3 – China: From tightening to modest easing</b></p>\n<p>While growth is usually sustained by external demand and capex during periods of counter-cyclical tightening, COVID-19 flare-ups have hampered the private consumption recovery in this cycle. Accordingly, policy-makers are beginning to fine-tune their policy stance to offset the effects of the resulting small growth downside. Our chief China economist Robin Xing expects&nbsp;modest fiscal easing, complemented by liquidity injection&nbsp;and the cut in the reserve requirement ratio on July 9. We remain confident that China’s GDP will grow by 8.7%Y this year.</p>\n<p><b>#4 – Supply-side constraints are transitory</b></p>\n<p>Supply-side constraints continue to be reflected in the sub-indices of the manufacturing PMIs – supplier delivery times and inventories. What’s more, these obstacles have dampened production, with a shortage of chips crimping auto production and leading to downside surprises in Japan and Korea’s industrial production growth. Similarly, labour shortages have hampered services sector growth, especially in the US, where labour participation has been held back in part because generous unemployment benefits are still in effect in some states and schools have yet to fully resume in-person learning. However, we expect labour supply conditions to improve over the next 3-4 months, enabling production to ramp up and inventories to return to more normalised levels, providing a strong boost to GDP growth.</p>\n<p>Overall, we see this growth scare as just that – a scare. Indeed, while there have been some downside growth surprises in economies like China and India, they have been offset by upside surprises in Europe and Latin America, keeping our global growth forecasts unchanged (at 6.5%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022) since we published our mid-year outlook. More fundamentally, the outlook for demand is strong, and we remain convinced that the unfolding of a&nbsp;red-hot capex cycle&nbsp;will sustain global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path from this quarter on through to end-2022.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-today-we-are-facing-another-growth-scare-it-too-will-fade><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the Sunday Startabout the first growth scare of the new cycle (see Three Reasons Why the Recovery Is on Track, July 26, 2020). Then, a rise in COVID-19 cases sparked ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-today-we-are-facing-another-growth-scare-it-too-will-fade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-today-we-are-facing-another-growth-scare-it-too-will-fade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144170422","content_text":"Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the Sunday Startabout the first growth scare of the new cycle (see Three Reasons Why the Recovery Is on Track, July 26, 2020). Then, a rise in COVID-19 cases sparked fears of renewed lockdowns, and the delay in passing additional fiscal stimulus in the US led to concerns that the consumption recovery would sputter.\nToday, we are facing another growth scare. Just like the last time, we see good reasons why these fears will fade.\n#1 – The virus/economy equation continues to evolve\nThe more transmissible Delta variant is leading to a renewed rise in cases, particularly among unvaccinated populations. Encouragingly, while case counts are rising, all indications are that existing vaccines are still highly effective in preventing severe illness and, more importantly, hospitalisations.\nHence, for economies with relatively high vaccination rates, like the US, UK and euro area, we don’t expect hospital system capacity to be overwhelmed and thus see a low probability of strict lockdowns returning. For economies which are lagging in their vaccination efforts, for instance parts of Asia, the risk is that variants will delay a full relaxation of restrictions. While the recovery in external demand and capex is advancing for these economies, we see domestic consumption being held back over the next 3-4 months. However, vaccinations are expected to pick up, which would give policy-makers greater flexibility to reopen their economies, setting the stage for a broad-based recovery to take hold late this year.\n#2 – US: Withdrawal of policy support is not as premature as you think\nAs recoveries progress and economies move towards a self-sustaining path, it is only natural for policy-makers to start thinking about exit strategies. However, we believe that neither fiscal nor monetary policy support will be removed at a faster pace than warranted.\nThe US economy is already on a strong footing. Wage incomes stand at 105% of pre-COVID-19 levels, real investment is already 4% higher and GDP has reached its pre-COVID-19 path.\nWhile the fiscal impulse is turning negative this year, its impact on growth has been overstated. That’s because fiscal measures have largely taken the form of transfers to households. In fact, the excess transfers are still sitting on household balance sheets, waiting to be spent. US households have accumulated US$2.3 trillion in excess saving, and our strong US GDP growth forecasts of 7.1%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022 don’t assume that this stock will have to be drawn down.\nAs regards the Fed, our chief US economist Ellen Zentner continues to expect forward guidance in September and an official announcement of tapering in March, with the risks skewed towards an earlier start. By the time tapering starts, we forecast that the US economy will be well above its pre-COVID-19 path, core PCE inflation will exceed 2%Y sustainably (adjusted for base effects and transitory factors) and U-6 unemployment (the broadest measure) will reach ~8.5% (versus a pre-pandemic low of 7%) as compared to 13% during the time of tapering in December 2013 – hardly conditions that indicate the withdrawal of accommodation is premature.\n#3 – China: From tightening to modest easing\nWhile growth is usually sustained by external demand and capex during periods of counter-cyclical tightening, COVID-19 flare-ups have hampered the private consumption recovery in this cycle. Accordingly, policy-makers are beginning to fine-tune their policy stance to offset the effects of the resulting small growth downside. Our chief China economist Robin Xing expects modest fiscal easing, complemented by liquidity injection and the cut in the reserve requirement ratio on July 9. We remain confident that China’s GDP will grow by 8.7%Y this year.\n#4 – Supply-side constraints are transitory\nSupply-side constraints continue to be reflected in the sub-indices of the manufacturing PMIs – supplier delivery times and inventories. What’s more, these obstacles have dampened production, with a shortage of chips crimping auto production and leading to downside surprises in Japan and Korea’s industrial production growth. Similarly, labour shortages have hampered services sector growth, especially in the US, where labour participation has been held back in part because generous unemployment benefits are still in effect in some states and schools have yet to fully resume in-person learning. However, we expect labour supply conditions to improve over the next 3-4 months, enabling production to ramp up and inventories to return to more normalised levels, providing a strong boost to GDP growth.\nOverall, we see this growth scare as just that – a scare. Indeed, while there have been some downside growth surprises in economies like China and India, they have been offset by upside surprises in Europe and Latin America, keeping our global growth forecasts unchanged (at 6.5%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022) since we published our mid-year outlook. More fundamentally, the outlook for demand is strong, and we remain convinced that the unfolding of a red-hot capex cycle will sustain global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path from this quarter on through to end-2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151157980,"gmtCreate":1625068880940,"gmtModify":1633945167542,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Feeling[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"Feeling[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"Feeling[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3544e54fc0e9061714ec16950d6ff11f","width":"750","height":"1238"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151157980","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165774373,"gmtCreate":1624159648292,"gmtModify":1634010044849,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes, Like and have a nice day . Stay safe.....","listText":"Yes, Like and have a nice day . Stay safe.....","text":"Yes, Like and have a nice day . Stay safe.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165774373","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161055249,"gmtCreate":1623897776181,"gmtModify":1631889308895,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MESA\">$MESA 20210716 12.5 CALL(MESA)$</a>累呀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MESA\">$MESA 20210716 12.5 CALL(MESA)$</a>累呀","text":"$MESA 20210716 12.5 CALL(MESA)$累呀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c63fc6655ad647e98a2fe5a783f14e","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161055249","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110152980,"gmtCreate":1622433183740,"gmtModify":1634101506918,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110152980","repostId":"2139872224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110151097,"gmtCreate":1622433001019,"gmtModify":1634101508461,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110151097","repostId":"2139438981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110153047,"gmtCreate":1622432957089,"gmtModify":1634101509179,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok, thanks","listText":"Ok, thanks","text":"Ok, thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110153047","repostId":"2139438981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":146362220,"gmtCreate":1626054505460,"gmtModify":1633930608327,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"Like and share[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146362220","repostId":"1144170422","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144170422","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626053515,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144170422?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144170422","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the Sunday Startabout the first growth scare of the new cycle (see Th","content":"<p>Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the&nbsp;<i>Sunday Start</i>about the first growth scare of the new cycle (<i>see&nbsp;Three Reasons Why the Recovery Is on Track, July 26, 2020</i>). Then, a rise in COVID-19 cases sparked fears of renewed lockdowns, and the delay in passing additional fiscal stimulus in the US led to concerns that the consumption recovery would sputter.</p>\n<p>Today, we are facing another growth scare. Just like the last time, we see good reasons why these fears will fade.</p>\n<p><b>#1 – The virus/economy equation continues to evolve</b></p>\n<p>The more transmissible Delta variant is leading to a renewed rise in cases, particularly among unvaccinated populations. Encouragingly, while case counts are rising, all indications are that existing vaccines are still highly effective in preventing severe illness and, more importantly, hospitalisations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b35c364dd1dd5e19aa143af89201a35\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Hence, for economies with relatively high vaccination rates, like the US, UK and euro area, we don’t expect hospital system capacity to be overwhelmed and thus see a low probability of strict lockdowns returning. For economies which are lagging in their vaccination efforts, for instance parts of Asia, the risk is that variants will delay a full relaxation of restrictions. While the recovery in external demand and capex is advancing for these economies, we see domestic consumption being held back over the next 3-4 months. However, vaccinations are expected to pick up, which would give policy-makers greater flexibility to reopen their economies, setting the stage for a broad-based recovery to take hold late this year.</p>\n<p><b>#2 – US: Withdrawal of policy support is not as premature as you think</b></p>\n<p>As recoveries progress and economies move towards a self-sustaining path, it is only natural for policy-makers to start thinking about exit strategies. However, we believe that neither fiscal nor monetary policy support will be&nbsp;removed at a faster pace than warranted.</p>\n<p>The US economy is already on a strong footing. Wage incomes stand at 105% of pre-COVID-19 levels, real investment is already 4% higher and GDP has reached its pre-COVID-19 path.</p>\n<p>While the fiscal impulse is turning negative this year, its impact on growth has been overstated. That’s because fiscal measures have largely taken the form of transfers to households. In fact, the excess transfers are still sitting on household balance sheets, waiting to be spent. US households have accumulated US$2.3 trillion in excess saving, and our strong US GDP growth forecasts of 7.1%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022 don’t assume that this stock will have to be drawn down.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8337c2c7520872d704e9497f4436a5d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As regards the Fed, our chief US economist Ellen Zentner continues to expect&nbsp;forward guidance in September&nbsp;and an official announcement of tapering in March, with the risks skewed towards an earlier start. By the time tapering starts, we forecast that the US economy will be well above its pre-COVID-19 path, core PCE inflation will exceed 2%Y sustainably (adjusted for base effects and transitory factors) and U-6 unemployment (the broadest measure) will reach ~8.5% (versus a pre-pandemic low of 7%) as compared to 13% during the time of tapering in December 2013 – hardly conditions that indicate the withdrawal of accommodation is premature.</p>\n<p><b>#3 – China: From tightening to modest easing</b></p>\n<p>While growth is usually sustained by external demand and capex during periods of counter-cyclical tightening, COVID-19 flare-ups have hampered the private consumption recovery in this cycle. Accordingly, policy-makers are beginning to fine-tune their policy stance to offset the effects of the resulting small growth downside. Our chief China economist Robin Xing expects&nbsp;modest fiscal easing, complemented by liquidity injection&nbsp;and the cut in the reserve requirement ratio on July 9. We remain confident that China’s GDP will grow by 8.7%Y this year.</p>\n<p><b>#4 – Supply-side constraints are transitory</b></p>\n<p>Supply-side constraints continue to be reflected in the sub-indices of the manufacturing PMIs – supplier delivery times and inventories. What’s more, these obstacles have dampened production, with a shortage of chips crimping auto production and leading to downside surprises in Japan and Korea’s industrial production growth. Similarly, labour shortages have hampered services sector growth, especially in the US, where labour participation has been held back in part because generous unemployment benefits are still in effect in some states and schools have yet to fully resume in-person learning. However, we expect labour supply conditions to improve over the next 3-4 months, enabling production to ramp up and inventories to return to more normalised levels, providing a strong boost to GDP growth.</p>\n<p>Overall, we see this growth scare as just that – a scare. Indeed, while there have been some downside growth surprises in economies like China and India, they have been offset by upside surprises in Europe and Latin America, keeping our global growth forecasts unchanged (at 6.5%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022) since we published our mid-year outlook. More fundamentally, the outlook for demand is strong, and we remain convinced that the unfolding of a&nbsp;red-hot capex cycle&nbsp;will sustain global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path from this quarter on through to end-2022.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Today We Are Facing Another Growth Scare, And It Too Will Fade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-today-we-are-facing-another-growth-scare-it-too-will-fade><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the Sunday Startabout the first growth scare of the new cycle (see Three Reasons Why the Recovery Is on Track, July 26, 2020). Then, a rise in COVID-19 cases sparked ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-today-we-are-facing-another-growth-scare-it-too-will-fade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-today-we-are-facing-another-growth-scare-it-too-will-fade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144170422","content_text":"Nearly a year ago, we wrote in the Sunday Startabout the first growth scare of the new cycle (see Three Reasons Why the Recovery Is on Track, July 26, 2020). Then, a rise in COVID-19 cases sparked fears of renewed lockdowns, and the delay in passing additional fiscal stimulus in the US led to concerns that the consumption recovery would sputter.\nToday, we are facing another growth scare. Just like the last time, we see good reasons why these fears will fade.\n#1 – The virus/economy equation continues to evolve\nThe more transmissible Delta variant is leading to a renewed rise in cases, particularly among unvaccinated populations. Encouragingly, while case counts are rising, all indications are that existing vaccines are still highly effective in preventing severe illness and, more importantly, hospitalisations.\nHence, for economies with relatively high vaccination rates, like the US, UK and euro area, we don’t expect hospital system capacity to be overwhelmed and thus see a low probability of strict lockdowns returning. For economies which are lagging in their vaccination efforts, for instance parts of Asia, the risk is that variants will delay a full relaxation of restrictions. While the recovery in external demand and capex is advancing for these economies, we see domestic consumption being held back over the next 3-4 months. However, vaccinations are expected to pick up, which would give policy-makers greater flexibility to reopen their economies, setting the stage for a broad-based recovery to take hold late this year.\n#2 – US: Withdrawal of policy support is not as premature as you think\nAs recoveries progress and economies move towards a self-sustaining path, it is only natural for policy-makers to start thinking about exit strategies. However, we believe that neither fiscal nor monetary policy support will be removed at a faster pace than warranted.\nThe US economy is already on a strong footing. Wage incomes stand at 105% of pre-COVID-19 levels, real investment is already 4% higher and GDP has reached its pre-COVID-19 path.\nWhile the fiscal impulse is turning negative this year, its impact on growth has been overstated. That’s because fiscal measures have largely taken the form of transfers to households. In fact, the excess transfers are still sitting on household balance sheets, waiting to be spent. US households have accumulated US$2.3 trillion in excess saving, and our strong US GDP growth forecasts of 7.1%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022 don’t assume that this stock will have to be drawn down.\nAs regards the Fed, our chief US economist Ellen Zentner continues to expect forward guidance in September and an official announcement of tapering in March, with the risks skewed towards an earlier start. By the time tapering starts, we forecast that the US economy will be well above its pre-COVID-19 path, core PCE inflation will exceed 2%Y sustainably (adjusted for base effects and transitory factors) and U-6 unemployment (the broadest measure) will reach ~8.5% (versus a pre-pandemic low of 7%) as compared to 13% during the time of tapering in December 2013 – hardly conditions that indicate the withdrawal of accommodation is premature.\n#3 – China: From tightening to modest easing\nWhile growth is usually sustained by external demand and capex during periods of counter-cyclical tightening, COVID-19 flare-ups have hampered the private consumption recovery in this cycle. Accordingly, policy-makers are beginning to fine-tune their policy stance to offset the effects of the resulting small growth downside. Our chief China economist Robin Xing expects modest fiscal easing, complemented by liquidity injection and the cut in the reserve requirement ratio on July 9. We remain confident that China’s GDP will grow by 8.7%Y this year.\n#4 – Supply-side constraints are transitory\nSupply-side constraints continue to be reflected in the sub-indices of the manufacturing PMIs – supplier delivery times and inventories. What’s more, these obstacles have dampened production, with a shortage of chips crimping auto production and leading to downside surprises in Japan and Korea’s industrial production growth. Similarly, labour shortages have hampered services sector growth, especially in the US, where labour participation has been held back in part because generous unemployment benefits are still in effect in some states and schools have yet to fully resume in-person learning. However, we expect labour supply conditions to improve over the next 3-4 months, enabling production to ramp up and inventories to return to more normalised levels, providing a strong boost to GDP growth.\nOverall, we see this growth scare as just that – a scare. Indeed, while there have been some downside growth surprises in economies like China and India, they have been offset by upside surprises in Europe and Latin America, keeping our global growth forecasts unchanged (at 6.5%Y for 2021 and 4.9%Y for 2022) since we published our mid-year outlook. More fundamentally, the outlook for demand is strong, and we remain convinced that the unfolding of a red-hot capex cycle will sustain global GDP above its pre-COVID-19 path from this quarter on through to end-2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165774373,"gmtCreate":1624159648292,"gmtModify":1634010044849,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes, Like and have a nice day . Stay safe.....","listText":"Yes, Like and have a nice day . Stay safe.....","text":"Yes, Like and have a nice day . Stay safe.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165774373","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161055249,"gmtCreate":1623897776181,"gmtModify":1631889308895,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MESA\">$MESA 20210716 12.5 CALL(MESA)$</a>累呀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MESA\">$MESA 20210716 12.5 CALL(MESA)$</a>累呀","text":"$MESA 20210716 12.5 CALL(MESA)$累呀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c63fc6655ad647e98a2fe5a783f14e","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161055249","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110152980,"gmtCreate":1622433183740,"gmtModify":1634101506918,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and share&nbsp;","listText":"Like and share&nbsp;","text":"Like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110152980","repostId":"2139872224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142683022,"gmtCreate":1626145984066,"gmtModify":1633929655643,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great and good , please like me . Many thanks....","listText":"Great and good , please like me . Many thanks....","text":"Great and good , please like me . Many thanks....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142683022","repostId":"146690735","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":146690735,"gmtCreate":1626073033623,"gmtModify":1744960706953,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"美股周策略：最强季度来了，银行股撒钱“助兴\"新财季了","htmlText":"7月初美股继续延续涨势，和过去大部分年份里的7月上旬一样，季报前的盈利上调仍然是美股上扬的主要催化剂。尤其是今天的特殊性在于：1.美股盈利受基数还有全面免疫，复工复产等因素影响，二季度属于增长最强的季度（目前预期为同比+64%），这将是10多年以来单季最高增长率，也是全年的顶点。 2.与此同时，货币政策也需要等待更多就业数据来当论据，这部分至少要在8月份公布7月非农数据时，才会有参考价值。因此在真正季报披露前，市场笃定盈利预跑行情（Earning Run）推动美股先行上涨就不足为奇。<a href=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/380f894305880218021c392808c43a0b\" target=\"_blank\">《2H展望，疫情后美股上涨的核心逻辑能否延续？》20210705</a> 前情回顾：从6月底的回购、派息力度看，交易型银行对投资者更加友好 财报方面，本周打头阵的依旧是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">$花旗(C)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$高盛(GS)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">$摩根士丹利(MS)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$美国银行(BAC)$</a> 等大型银行。年初以来，标普500指数累计上涨16%，银行板块累计涨幅超过20%，轻松跑赢大盘。 先看今年6月份银行业压力测试，从区域上看，大部门银行都宣布了提高派息，这一点美国银行业继续领先于欧洲银行业； 目前可以定量观察的在于，美国银行业普遍提高了股息率，结合公司公开披露","listText":"7月初美股继续延续涨势，和过去大部分年份里的7月上旬一样，季报前的盈利上调仍然是美股上扬的主要催化剂。尤其是今天的特殊性在于：1.美股盈利受基数还有全面免疫，复工复产等因素影响，二季度属于增长最强的季度（目前预期为同比+64%），这将是10多年以来单季最高增长率，也是全年的顶点。 2.与此同时，货币政策也需要等待更多就业数据来当论据，这部分至少要在8月份公布7月非农数据时，才会有参考价值。因此在真正季报披露前，市场笃定盈利预跑行情（Earning Run）推动美股先行上涨就不足为奇。<a href=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/380f894305880218021c392808c43a0b\" target=\"_blank\">《2H展望，疫情后美股上涨的核心逻辑能否延续？》20210705</a> 前情回顾：从6月底的回购、派息力度看，交易型银行对投资者更加友好 财报方面，本周打头阵的依旧是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">$花旗(C)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$高盛(GS)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">$摩根士丹利(MS)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$美国银行(BAC)$</a> 等大型银行。年初以来，标普500指数累计上涨16%，银行板块累计涨幅超过20%，轻松跑赢大盘。 先看今年6月份银行业压力测试，从区域上看，大部门银行都宣布了提高派息，这一点美国银行业继续领先于欧洲银行业； 目前可以定量观察的在于，美国银行业普遍提高了股息率，结合公司公开披露","text":"7月初美股继续延续涨势，和过去大部分年份里的7月上旬一样，季报前的盈利上调仍然是美股上扬的主要催化剂。尤其是今天的特殊性在于：1.美股盈利受基数还有全面免疫，复工复产等因素影响，二季度属于增长最强的季度（目前预期为同比+64%），这将是10多年以来单季最高增长率，也是全年的顶点。 2.与此同时，货币政策也需要等待更多就业数据来当论据，这部分至少要在8月份公布7月非农数据时，才会有参考价值。因此在真正季报披露前，市场笃定盈利预跑行情（Earning Run）推动美股先行上涨就不足为奇。《2H展望，疫情后美股上涨的核心逻辑能否延续？》20210705 前情回顾：从6月底的回购、派息力度看，交易型银行对投资者更加友好 财报方面，本周打头阵的依旧是$摩根大通(JPM)$ 、$花旗(C)$ 、$高盛(GS)$ 、$摩根士丹利(MS)$ 、$美国银行(BAC)$ 等大型银行。年初以来，标普500指数累计上涨16%，银行板块累计涨幅超过20%，轻松跑赢大盘。 先看今年6月份银行业压力测试，从区域上看，大部门银行都宣布了提高派息，这一点美国银行业继续领先于欧洲银行业； 目前可以定量观察的在于，美国银行业普遍提高了股息率，结合公司公开披露","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab5d24cf5d78354c607981555b0a266","width":"1183","height":"679"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146690735","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151157980,"gmtCreate":1625068880940,"gmtModify":1633945167542,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Feeling[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"Feeling[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"Feeling[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3544e54fc0e9061714ec16950d6ff11f","width":"750","height":"1238"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151157980","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110151097,"gmtCreate":1622433001019,"gmtModify":1634101508461,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110151097","repostId":"2139438981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110153047,"gmtCreate":1622432957089,"gmtModify":1634101509179,"author":{"id":"3585522070913256","authorId":"3585522070913256","name":"eric8046","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f18c6c9a223c16cee5050fbd3a375e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585522070913256","authorIdStr":"3585522070913256"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok, thanks","listText":"Ok, thanks","text":"Ok, thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110153047","repostId":"2139438981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}