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Waiyanno

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2021-11-15

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GE and JNJ Aren't the Only Aging Companies That Could Benefit From a Breakup<blockquote>通用电气和强生并不是唯一可以从分拆中受益的老龄化公司</blockquote>

2021-11-10

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2021-10-26

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08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GE and JNJ Aren't the Only Aging Companies That Could Benefit From a Breakup<blockquote>通用电气和强生并不是唯一可以从分拆中受益的老龄化公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178164317","media":"Thestreet","summary":"After years of turmoil and a valiant effort by its latest CEO Larry Culp, General Electric (GE) fina","content":"<p>After years of turmoil and a valiant effort by its latest CEO Larry Culp, General Electric (GE) finally gave up in its efforts to salvage its broad-reaching business as a singular unit.</p><p><blockquote>经过多年的动荡和新任首席执行官拉里·卡尔普的勇敢努力，通用电气(GE)最终放弃了将其广泛业务作为一个单一部门挽救的努力。</blockquote></p><p> The company has consistently spun off numerous assets across the sprawling conglomerate in recent years to lessen its debt load. Perhaps most important was a $20 billion deal to ship its biopharmaceutical business to Danaher (DHR) in 2020. Yet, it appears the moves were not enough to satisfy Culp's ambitious recovery goals for the once-great industrial giant.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，该公司不断剥离整个庞大企业集团的大量资产，以减轻债务负担。也许最重要的是2020年将其生物制药业务转移给丹纳赫(DHR)的200亿美元交易。然而，这些举措似乎不足以满足卡尔普对这家曾经伟大的工业巨头雄心勃勃的复苏目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"The world demands-and deserves-we bring our best to solve the biggest challenges in flight, healthcare, and energy,\" Culp said in a statement on Tuesday. \"By creating three industry-leading, global public companies, each can benefit from greater focus, tailored capital allocation, and strategic flexibility to drive long-term growth and value for customers, investors, and employees. We are putting our technology expertise, leadership, and global reach to work to better serve our customers.\"</p><p><blockquote>卡尔普在周二的一份声明中表示：“世界要求——也应该——我们尽最大努力解决飞行、医疗保健和能源领域的最大挑战。”“通过创建三家行业领先的全球上市公司，每家公司都可以从更大的关注、量身定制的资本配置和战略灵活性中受益，以推动客户、投资者和员工的长期增长和价值。我们正在利用我们的技术专业知识、领导力和全球影响力来更好地为我们的客户服务。”</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, the lawsuit-besieged Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)announced it would spin off its consumer health division&nbsp;from its higher growth pharmaceutical and medical devices divisions in the coming two years.</p><p><blockquote>同样，饱受诉讼困扰的强生公司（JNJ）宣布将在未来两年内将其消费者健康部门从增长较快的制药和医疗器械部门中剥离出来。</blockquote></p><p> Judging by the&nbsp;jump in GE stock after the announcement&nbsp;and the early jolt to Johnson &amp; Johnson stock after its announcement Friday<u>,</u>the market certainly looks as though it was offering its initial approval for the streamlining of separate companies. Still, a few questions quickly come to mind.</p><p><blockquote>从通用电气股票在公告后的上涨以及强生公司股票在周五公告后的早期震荡来看<u>,</u>市场看起来确实对精简独立公司提供了初步批准。尽管如此，几个问题很快浮现在脑海中。</blockquote></p><p> First, is this indeed a deft move by management in both cases and therefore deserving of the share-price reaction? And if so, are there more companies that could benefit from following the example set by both of these storied companies?</p><p><blockquote>首先，在这两种情况下，这确实是管理层的灵巧举措，因此值得股价反应吗？如果是这样，是否有更多的公司可以从这两家传奇公司树立的榜样中受益？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Better After a Breakup?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分手后更好？</b></blockquote></p><p> The first line of questioning is one of whether or not two or three firms are truly better than one.</p><p><blockquote>第一个问题是两三家公司是否真的比一家好。</blockquote></p><p> On paper, it would certainly appear to be so. As of Thursday's market open, GE touted a valuation of about $119 billion as a total entity. However, when broken into constituent parts, RBC Capital Markets analyst Deane Dray suggested up to a 20% upside for investors. Judging by company metrics and projections, it could well be even higher.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，情况确实如此。截至周四开盘，通用电气的整体估值约为1190亿美元。然而，当细分为各个组成部分时，加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师迪恩·德雷(Deane Dray)建议投资者最多有20%的上涨空间。从公司指标和预测来看，这个数字很可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> Also, each of the spun-off GE units will be less encumbered by the debt of their former counterparts within the broader company, especially as asset sales in recent years alleviate debt and pension issues. Further, future deals are more likely to reach approval based upon diminished antitrust risk, opening a much wider world of opportunity for investors in the streamlined companies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，每个分拆后的通用电气部门都将减少公司内前同行的债务负担，特别是近年来的资产出售缓解了债务和养老金问题。此外，基于反垄断风险的降低，未来的交易更有可能获得批准，为精简后公司的投资者打开了更广阔的机会世界。</blockquote></p><p> The logic is very much the same for Johnson &amp; Johnson as its pharmaceutical business breaks free from the burdensome troubles of&nbsp;lawsuits over talcum-powder&nbsp;products as well as low-margin medicines like Tylenol. Separation is seen as a key step toward unlocking innovation.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司的逻辑非常相似，因为其制药业务摆脱了滑石粉产品以及泰诺等低利润药物的诉讼麻烦。分离被视为开启创新的关键一步。</blockquote></p><p> \"For the new Johnson &amp; Johnson, this planned separation underscores our focus on delivering industry-leading biopharmaceutical and medical device innovation and technology with the goal of bringing new solutions to market for patients and healthcare systems, while creating sustainable value for shareholders,\" CEO Alex Gorsky explained in a statement. \"We believe that the New Consumer Health Company would be a global leader across attractive and growing consumer health categories, and a streamlined and targeted corporate structure would provide it with the agility and flexibility to grow its iconic portfolio of brands and innovate new products.\"</p><p><blockquote>“对于新的强生公司来说，这一计划中的分离强调了我们对提供行业领先的生物制药和医疗器械创新和技术的关注，目标是为患者和医疗保健系统将新的解决方案推向市场，同时为股东创造可持续的价值，”首席执行官亚历克斯·戈尔斯基在一份声明中解释道。“我们相信，新的消费者健康公司将成为有吸引力且不断增长的消费者健康类别的全球领导者，精简且有针对性的公司结构将为其提供敏捷性和灵活性，以发展其标志性品牌组合和创新新产品。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, these targets and optimistic angles assume a rosy trajectory for each of the newly formed firms. As the example of DowDupont (now Dupont (DD) , Dow Inc. (DOW) , and Corteva (CTVA) ) shows, splitting up historic firms with sprawling business is not always a process that progresses precisely to plan.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这些目标和乐观的角度为每个新成立的公司假设了一个乐观的轨迹。正如陶氏杜邦公司（现为杜邦公司(DD)、陶氏公司(DOW)和Corteva(CTVA)）的例子所示，拆分业务庞大的历史悠久的公司并不总是一个完全按照计划进行的过程。</blockquote></p><p> Since splitting, the two storied industrial companies, once combined into one mega-conglomerate, have not had much success.</p><p><blockquote>自拆分以来，这两家曾经合并为一家大型企业集团的传奇工业公司并没有取得多大成功。</blockquote></p><p> \"New Dow will be well positioned to drive best-in-class financial performance and shareholder returns,\" Dow CEO Jim Fitterling said ahead of the firm's 2019 spinoff to a standalone firm. \"We have a focused playbook of cost and growth drivers, clear and disciplined capital allocation priorities and a strong balance sheet. Our path to shareholder value creation is straightforward and in our control.\"</p><p><blockquote>陶氏化学首席执行官吉姆·菲特林(Jim Fitterling)在该公司2019年分拆为独立公司之前表示：“新陶氏化学将处于有利地位，能够推动一流的财务业绩和股东回报。”“我们有一个关于成本和增长驱动因素的集中剧本、明确且严格的资本配置优先事项以及强大的资产负债表。我们创造股东价值的道路很简单，并且在我们的控制之下。”</blockquote></p><p> These pronouncements are very much in line with what GE has said of each of its planned new standalone entities. Also, in a move very much reminiscent of GE's quarterly results in recent years, the pronouncement promised much more than what has actually been delivered.</p><p><blockquote>这些声明与通用电气对其计划中的每个新独立实体的说法非常一致。此外，这一举动很容易让人想起通用电气近年来的季度业绩，该声明承诺的内容远多于实际兑现的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since it's spinoff was official in April 2019, DOW stock has marked a less than 10% gain. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P has risen over 60% over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年4月正式分拆以来，道指股价涨幅不到10%。与此同时，标准普尔指数同期上涨了60%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Example to Follow?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得效仿的榜样？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Still, assuming things do go well post-breakup, these moves could serve as a benchmark for other bigger, older, and perhaps bloated companies. At the very least, this is the logic adopted not only by aging and perhaps overcomplicated American conglomerates like GE and Johnson &amp; Johnson, but also the nearly 150-year-old Japanese giant Toshiba (TOSBF) . In short, it looks as though a trend is taking hold.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，假设分手后事情确实进展顺利，这些举措可以作为其他更大、更老、或许臃肿的公司的基准。至少，这不仅是通用电气和强生等老化、或许过于复杂的美国企业集团采用的逻辑，也是拥有近150年历史的日本巨头东芝（TOSBF）采用的逻辑。简而言之，看起来一种趋势正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> \"Companies that have very diversified portfolios continue to dilute the value to the shareholders,\" David Braun, CEO of M&amp;A advisory firm Capstone Strategic, told Real Money. \"We are in an era where technology and access to capital are different things. A conglomerate is going to have trouble competing.\"</p><p><blockquote>并购咨询公司Capstone Strategic首席执行官David Braun告诉Real Money：“投资组合非常多元化的公司继续稀释股东的价值。”“我们生活在一个技术和获得资本是不同的时代。企业集团将难以竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> He suggested that Emerson Electric (EMR) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) &nbsp; (BRK.B) are two companies that could likely benefit from a similar breakup.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，艾默生电气（EMR）和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）是两家可能从类似分拆中受益的公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"They continue to stockpile excess cash they cannot deploy,\" Braun added, voicing the drawbacks of the behemoth business. \"I'm not sure they benefit from that model any longer.\"</p><p><blockquote>“他们继续储存无法部署的多余现金，”布劳恩补充道，并表达了这项庞大业务的缺点。“我不确定他们是否不再从这种模式中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On the former, he is far from the first to suggest such a move. RBC's Deane Dray has actually been calling for such a breakup for a few years, alongside 3M (MMM) and Roper Technologies (ROP) , firms he also believes could benefit from being a bit less bulky.</p><p><blockquote>就前者而言，他远不是第一个建议采取这一举措的人。加拿大皇家银行(RBC)的迪恩·德雷(Deane Dray)实际上几年来一直呼吁与3M（3M）和Roper Technologies(ROP)进行这样的分拆，他还认为这些公司可以从规模缩小中受益。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the pendulum is still swinging towards the 'urge to demerge' trend,\" he wrote in a note on Tuesday. \"GE's announcement today could embolden the boards of several other multi-industry companies to move ahead on more aggressive portfolio simplification moves, including Emerson, Roper Technologies and 3M.\"</p><p><blockquote>他在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们认为钟摆仍在朝着‘分裂的冲动’趋势摆动。”“通用电气今天的声明可能会鼓励其他几家多行业公司的董事会采取更积极的投资组合简化举措，包括艾默生、罗珀科技和3M。”</blockquote></p><p> As far back as 2019, Dray suggested a breakup of Emerson's automation and commercial divisions could be a boon for shareholders. While the stock has been on a roll since the pandemic began, such a breakup has already been intensely considered by management. In early February, Emerson announced it would not pursue a split \"unless a major strategic acquisition catalyst is actioned.\"</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，德雷就表示，艾默生自动化和商业部门的分拆可能会给股东带来福音。尽管自疫情爆发以来该股一直在上涨，但管理层已经认真考虑过这种分拆。二月初，艾默生宣布“除非采取重大战略收购催化剂”，否则不会寻求分拆。</blockquote></p><p> At the least, if such a catalyst is to appear the company is clearly willing to consider such an option.</p><p><blockquote>至少，如果出现这样的催化剂，该公司显然愿意考虑这样的选择。</blockquote></p><p> For Berkshire, it is eminently unlikely that any moves come while both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger helm the conglomerate.&nbsp;But prospects for such a breakup could take many forms considering the business spans industries from insurance to construction to railroads. As such, attempting to size up a form that such a move might take is nearly impossible to forecast.</p><p><blockquote>对于伯克希尔来说，在沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格同时执掌该集团的情况下，极不可能有任何举措。但考虑到该业务横跨从保险到建筑再到铁路等多个行业，这种拆分的前景可能有多种形式。因此，试图估计这种举动可能采取的形式几乎是不可能预测的。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the prospects of a 3M breakup are certainly not out of the question.</p><p><blockquote>最后，3M分拆的前景当然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors in the storied firm are understandably frustrated. Long-term shareholders have seen the stock stagnate over the past five years, marking a basically flat return even after shares were buoyed by demand for PPE and healthcare equipment that the firm manufactured during the pandemic. Looking back on the boost to the shares, many might have been happier with a pure-play option for healthcare and protective equipment rather than a company also weighed down by industrial, transportation, and consumer segments.</p><p><blockquote>这家传奇公司的投资者感到沮丧是可以理解的。长期股东发现该股在过去五年中停滞不前，即使该公司在大流行期间生产的个人防护设备和医疗保健设备的需求提振了该股，回报率也基本持平。回顾股价的上涨，许多人可能更愿意选择纯粹的医疗保健和防护设备，而不是一家同样受到工业、运输和消费领域拖累的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Toward this end, the company may have already telegraphed its intention to move toward breaking up. In March 2019, the company divided its business into four units. The units, entitled safety &amp; industrial, transportation &amp; electronics, healthcare, and consumer respectively, were created in order to focus the business.</p><p><blockquote>为此，该公司可能已经传达了走向分拆的意图。2019年3月，公司将业务拆分为四个部门。这些部门分别名为安全与工业、运输与电子、医疗保健和消费者，是为了集中业务而创建的。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are continuing to advance 3M into the future, and today's actions will strengthen our ability to meet the fast-moving needs of our customers,\" 3M CEO Mike Roman said at the time. \"Our new alignment will leverage our business transformation progress, accelerate growth and deliver greater operational efficiencies.\"</p><p><blockquote>3M首席执行官Mike Roman当时表示：“我们正在继续推动3M走向未来，今天的行动将增强我们满足客户快速变化需求的能力。”“我们的新调整将利用我们的业务转型进展，加速增长并提高运营效率。”</blockquote></p><p> As operational efficiencies have not materialized to the point of elevating the share price, it is not unreasonable to ask questions as to why separate businesses might further tap into the desired efficiency. In short, the healthcare business might be stronger if it was no longer adhered to a scotch tape and post-it manufacturer and vice versa.</p><p><blockquote>由于运营效率尚未达到提高股价的程度，因此提出为什么独立业务可能会进一步利用所需效率的问题并非没有道理。简而言之，如果医疗保健业务不再依赖透明胶带和便利贴制造商，它可能会更强大，反之亦然。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, if the pursuit of separate businesses proves successful in each of the current experiments under way, the lesson may be that bigger is not always better. For investors, it might also open a number of pure-play options that provide a better investment than their parent companies do at present.</p><p><blockquote>最终，如果对独立业务的追求在当前正在进行的每一项实验中都被证明是成功的，那么教训可能是越大并不总是越好。对于投资者来说，它还可能提供许多纯粹的选择，提供比母公司目前更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GE and JNJ Aren't the Only Aging Companies That Could Benefit From a Breakup<blockquote>通用电气和强生并不是唯一可以从分拆中受益的老龄化公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGE and JNJ Aren't the Only Aging Companies That Could Benefit From a Breakup<blockquote>通用电气和强生并不是唯一可以从分拆中受益的老龄化公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-15 08:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After years of turmoil and a valiant effort by its latest CEO Larry Culp, General Electric (GE) finally gave up in its efforts to salvage its broad-reaching business as a singular unit.</p><p><blockquote>经过多年的动荡和新任首席执行官拉里·卡尔普的勇敢努力，通用电气(GE)最终放弃了将其广泛业务作为一个单一部门挽救的努力。</blockquote></p><p> The company has consistently spun off numerous assets across the sprawling conglomerate in recent years to lessen its debt load. Perhaps most important was a $20 billion deal to ship its biopharmaceutical business to Danaher (DHR) in 2020. Yet, it appears the moves were not enough to satisfy Culp's ambitious recovery goals for the once-great industrial giant.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，该公司不断剥离整个庞大企业集团的大量资产，以减轻债务负担。也许最重要的是2020年将其生物制药业务转移给丹纳赫(DHR)的200亿美元交易。然而，这些举措似乎不足以满足卡尔普对这家曾经伟大的工业巨头雄心勃勃的复苏目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"The world demands-and deserves-we bring our best to solve the biggest challenges in flight, healthcare, and energy,\" Culp said in a statement on Tuesday. \"By creating three industry-leading, global public companies, each can benefit from greater focus, tailored capital allocation, and strategic flexibility to drive long-term growth and value for customers, investors, and employees. We are putting our technology expertise, leadership, and global reach to work to better serve our customers.\"</p><p><blockquote>卡尔普在周二的一份声明中表示：“世界要求——也应该——我们尽最大努力解决飞行、医疗保健和能源领域的最大挑战。”“通过创建三家行业领先的全球上市公司，每家公司都可以从更大的关注、量身定制的资本配置和战略灵活性中受益，以推动客户、投资者和员工的长期增长和价值。我们正在利用我们的技术专业知识、领导力和全球影响力来更好地为我们的客户服务。”</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, the lawsuit-besieged Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)announced it would spin off its consumer health division&nbsp;from its higher growth pharmaceutical and medical devices divisions in the coming two years.</p><p><blockquote>同样，饱受诉讼困扰的强生公司（JNJ）宣布将在未来两年内将其消费者健康部门从增长较快的制药和医疗器械部门中剥离出来。</blockquote></p><p> Judging by the&nbsp;jump in GE stock after the announcement&nbsp;and the early jolt to Johnson &amp; Johnson stock after its announcement Friday<u>,</u>the market certainly looks as though it was offering its initial approval for the streamlining of separate companies. Still, a few questions quickly come to mind.</p><p><blockquote>从通用电气股票在公告后的上涨以及强生公司股票在周五公告后的早期震荡来看<u>,</u>市场看起来确实对精简独立公司提供了初步批准。尽管如此，几个问题很快浮现在脑海中。</blockquote></p><p> First, is this indeed a deft move by management in both cases and therefore deserving of the share-price reaction? And if so, are there more companies that could benefit from following the example set by both of these storied companies?</p><p><blockquote>首先，在这两种情况下，这确实是管理层的灵巧举措，因此值得股价反应吗？如果是这样，是否有更多的公司可以从这两家传奇公司树立的榜样中受益？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Better After a Breakup?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分手后更好？</b></blockquote></p><p> The first line of questioning is one of whether or not two or three firms are truly better than one.</p><p><blockquote>第一个问题是两三家公司是否真的比一家好。</blockquote></p><p> On paper, it would certainly appear to be so. As of Thursday's market open, GE touted a valuation of about $119 billion as a total entity. However, when broken into constituent parts, RBC Capital Markets analyst Deane Dray suggested up to a 20% upside for investors. Judging by company metrics and projections, it could well be even higher.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，情况确实如此。截至周四开盘，通用电气的整体估值约为1190亿美元。然而，当细分为各个组成部分时，加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师迪恩·德雷(Deane Dray)建议投资者最多有20%的上涨空间。从公司指标和预测来看，这个数字很可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> Also, each of the spun-off GE units will be less encumbered by the debt of their former counterparts within the broader company, especially as asset sales in recent years alleviate debt and pension issues. Further, future deals are more likely to reach approval based upon diminished antitrust risk, opening a much wider world of opportunity for investors in the streamlined companies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，每个分拆后的通用电气部门都将减少公司内前同行的债务负担，特别是近年来的资产出售缓解了债务和养老金问题。此外，基于反垄断风险的降低，未来的交易更有可能获得批准，为精简后公司的投资者打开了更广阔的机会世界。</blockquote></p><p> The logic is very much the same for Johnson &amp; Johnson as its pharmaceutical business breaks free from the burdensome troubles of&nbsp;lawsuits over talcum-powder&nbsp;products as well as low-margin medicines like Tylenol. Separation is seen as a key step toward unlocking innovation.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司的逻辑非常相似，因为其制药业务摆脱了滑石粉产品以及泰诺等低利润药物的诉讼麻烦。分离被视为开启创新的关键一步。</blockquote></p><p> \"For the new Johnson &amp; Johnson, this planned separation underscores our focus on delivering industry-leading biopharmaceutical and medical device innovation and technology with the goal of bringing new solutions to market for patients and healthcare systems, while creating sustainable value for shareholders,\" CEO Alex Gorsky explained in a statement. \"We believe that the New Consumer Health Company would be a global leader across attractive and growing consumer health categories, and a streamlined and targeted corporate structure would provide it with the agility and flexibility to grow its iconic portfolio of brands and innovate new products.\"</p><p><blockquote>“对于新的强生公司来说，这一计划中的分离强调了我们对提供行业领先的生物制药和医疗器械创新和技术的关注，目标是为患者和医疗保健系统将新的解决方案推向市场，同时为股东创造可持续的价值，”首席执行官亚历克斯·戈尔斯基在一份声明中解释道。“我们相信，新的消费者健康公司将成为有吸引力且不断增长的消费者健康类别的全球领导者，精简且有针对性的公司结构将为其提供敏捷性和灵活性，以发展其标志性品牌组合和创新新产品。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, these targets and optimistic angles assume a rosy trajectory for each of the newly formed firms. As the example of DowDupont (now Dupont (DD) , Dow Inc. (DOW) , and Corteva (CTVA) ) shows, splitting up historic firms with sprawling business is not always a process that progresses precisely to plan.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这些目标和乐观的角度为每个新成立的公司假设了一个乐观的轨迹。正如陶氏杜邦公司（现为杜邦公司(DD)、陶氏公司(DOW)和Corteva(CTVA)）的例子所示，拆分业务庞大的历史悠久的公司并不总是一个完全按照计划进行的过程。</blockquote></p><p> Since splitting, the two storied industrial companies, once combined into one mega-conglomerate, have not had much success.</p><p><blockquote>自拆分以来，这两家曾经合并为一家大型企业集团的传奇工业公司并没有取得多大成功。</blockquote></p><p> \"New Dow will be well positioned to drive best-in-class financial performance and shareholder returns,\" Dow CEO Jim Fitterling said ahead of the firm's 2019 spinoff to a standalone firm. \"We have a focused playbook of cost and growth drivers, clear and disciplined capital allocation priorities and a strong balance sheet. Our path to shareholder value creation is straightforward and in our control.\"</p><p><blockquote>陶氏化学首席执行官吉姆·菲特林(Jim Fitterling)在该公司2019年分拆为独立公司之前表示：“新陶氏化学将处于有利地位，能够推动一流的财务业绩和股东回报。”“我们有一个关于成本和增长驱动因素的集中剧本、明确且严格的资本配置优先事项以及强大的资产负债表。我们创造股东价值的道路很简单，并且在我们的控制之下。”</blockquote></p><p> These pronouncements are very much in line with what GE has said of each of its planned new standalone entities. Also, in a move very much reminiscent of GE's quarterly results in recent years, the pronouncement promised much more than what has actually been delivered.</p><p><blockquote>这些声明与通用电气对其计划中的每个新独立实体的说法非常一致。此外，这一举动很容易让人想起通用电气近年来的季度业绩，该声明承诺的内容远多于实际兑现的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since it's spinoff was official in April 2019, DOW stock has marked a less than 10% gain. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P has risen over 60% over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年4月正式分拆以来，道指股价涨幅不到10%。与此同时，标准普尔指数同期上涨了60%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Example to Follow?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得效仿的榜样？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Still, assuming things do go well post-breakup, these moves could serve as a benchmark for other bigger, older, and perhaps bloated companies. At the very least, this is the logic adopted not only by aging and perhaps overcomplicated American conglomerates like GE and Johnson &amp; Johnson, but also the nearly 150-year-old Japanese giant Toshiba (TOSBF) . In short, it looks as though a trend is taking hold.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，假设分手后事情确实进展顺利，这些举措可以作为其他更大、更老、或许臃肿的公司的基准。至少，这不仅是通用电气和强生等老化、或许过于复杂的美国企业集团采用的逻辑，也是拥有近150年历史的日本巨头东芝（TOSBF）采用的逻辑。简而言之，看起来一种趋势正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> \"Companies that have very diversified portfolios continue to dilute the value to the shareholders,\" David Braun, CEO of M&amp;A advisory firm Capstone Strategic, told Real Money. \"We are in an era where technology and access to capital are different things. A conglomerate is going to have trouble competing.\"</p><p><blockquote>并购咨询公司Capstone Strategic首席执行官David Braun告诉Real Money：“投资组合非常多元化的公司继续稀释股东的价值。”“我们生活在一个技术和获得资本是不同的时代。企业集团将难以竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> He suggested that Emerson Electric (EMR) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) &nbsp; (BRK.B) are two companies that could likely benefit from a similar breakup.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，艾默生电气（EMR）和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）是两家可能从类似分拆中受益的公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"They continue to stockpile excess cash they cannot deploy,\" Braun added, voicing the drawbacks of the behemoth business. \"I'm not sure they benefit from that model any longer.\"</p><p><blockquote>“他们继续储存无法部署的多余现金，”布劳恩补充道，并表达了这项庞大业务的缺点。“我不确定他们是否不再从这种模式中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On the former, he is far from the first to suggest such a move. RBC's Deane Dray has actually been calling for such a breakup for a few years, alongside 3M (MMM) and Roper Technologies (ROP) , firms he also believes could benefit from being a bit less bulky.</p><p><blockquote>就前者而言，他远不是第一个建议采取这一举措的人。加拿大皇家银行(RBC)的迪恩·德雷(Deane Dray)实际上几年来一直呼吁与3M（3M）和Roper Technologies(ROP)进行这样的分拆，他还认为这些公司可以从规模缩小中受益。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the pendulum is still swinging towards the 'urge to demerge' trend,\" he wrote in a note on Tuesday. \"GE's announcement today could embolden the boards of several other multi-industry companies to move ahead on more aggressive portfolio simplification moves, including Emerson, Roper Technologies and 3M.\"</p><p><blockquote>他在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们认为钟摆仍在朝着‘分裂的冲动’趋势摆动。”“通用电气今天的声明可能会鼓励其他几家多行业公司的董事会采取更积极的投资组合简化举措，包括艾默生、罗珀科技和3M。”</blockquote></p><p> As far back as 2019, Dray suggested a breakup of Emerson's automation and commercial divisions could be a boon for shareholders. While the stock has been on a roll since the pandemic began, such a breakup has already been intensely considered by management. In early February, Emerson announced it would not pursue a split \"unless a major strategic acquisition catalyst is actioned.\"</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，德雷就表示，艾默生自动化和商业部门的分拆可能会给股东带来福音。尽管自疫情爆发以来该股一直在上涨，但管理层已经认真考虑过这种分拆。二月初，艾默生宣布“除非采取重大战略收购催化剂”，否则不会寻求分拆。</blockquote></p><p> At the least, if such a catalyst is to appear the company is clearly willing to consider such an option.</p><p><blockquote>至少，如果出现这样的催化剂，该公司显然愿意考虑这样的选择。</blockquote></p><p> For Berkshire, it is eminently unlikely that any moves come while both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger helm the conglomerate.&nbsp;But prospects for such a breakup could take many forms considering the business spans industries from insurance to construction to railroads. As such, attempting to size up a form that such a move might take is nearly impossible to forecast.</p><p><blockquote>对于伯克希尔来说，在沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格同时执掌该集团的情况下，极不可能有任何举措。但考虑到该业务横跨从保险到建筑再到铁路等多个行业，这种拆分的前景可能有多种形式。因此，试图估计这种举动可能采取的形式几乎是不可能预测的。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the prospects of a 3M breakup are certainly not out of the question.</p><p><blockquote>最后，3M分拆的前景当然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors in the storied firm are understandably frustrated. Long-term shareholders have seen the stock stagnate over the past five years, marking a basically flat return even after shares were buoyed by demand for PPE and healthcare equipment that the firm manufactured during the pandemic. Looking back on the boost to the shares, many might have been happier with a pure-play option for healthcare and protective equipment rather than a company also weighed down by industrial, transportation, and consumer segments.</p><p><blockquote>这家传奇公司的投资者感到沮丧是可以理解的。长期股东发现该股在过去五年中停滞不前，即使该公司在大流行期间生产的个人防护设备和医疗保健设备的需求提振了该股，回报率也基本持平。回顾股价的上涨，许多人可能更愿意选择纯粹的医疗保健和防护设备，而不是一家同样受到工业、运输和消费领域拖累的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Toward this end, the company may have already telegraphed its intention to move toward breaking up. In March 2019, the company divided its business into four units. The units, entitled safety &amp; industrial, transportation &amp; electronics, healthcare, and consumer respectively, were created in order to focus the business.</p><p><blockquote>为此，该公司可能已经传达了走向分拆的意图。2019年3月，公司将业务拆分为四个部门。这些部门分别名为安全与工业、运输与电子、医疗保健和消费者，是为了集中业务而创建的。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are continuing to advance 3M into the future, and today's actions will strengthen our ability to meet the fast-moving needs of our customers,\" 3M CEO Mike Roman said at the time. \"Our new alignment will leverage our business transformation progress, accelerate growth and deliver greater operational efficiencies.\"</p><p><blockquote>3M首席执行官Mike Roman当时表示：“我们正在继续推动3M走向未来，今天的行动将增强我们满足客户快速变化需求的能力。”“我们的新调整将利用我们的业务转型进展，加速增长并提高运营效率。”</blockquote></p><p> As operational efficiencies have not materialized to the point of elevating the share price, it is not unreasonable to ask questions as to why separate businesses might further tap into the desired efficiency. In short, the healthcare business might be stronger if it was no longer adhered to a scotch tape and post-it manufacturer and vice versa.</p><p><blockquote>由于运营效率尚未达到提高股价的程度，因此提出为什么独立业务可能会进一步利用所需效率的问题并非没有道理。简而言之，如果医疗保健业务不再依赖透明胶带和便利贴制造商，它可能会更强大，反之亦然。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, if the pursuit of separate businesses proves successful in each of the current experiments under way, the lesson may be that bigger is not always better. For investors, it might also open a number of pure-play options that provide a better investment than their parent companies do at present.</p><p><blockquote>最终，如果对独立业务的追求在当前正在进行的每一项实验中都被证明是成功的，那么教训可能是越大并不总是越好。对于投资者来说，它还可能提供许多纯粹的选择，提供比母公司目前更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/ge-isn-t-the-only-aging-company-that-could-benefit-from-a-breakup-15830176?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GE":"GE航空航天","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/ge-isn-t-the-only-aging-company-that-could-benefit-from-a-breakup-15830176?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178164317","content_text":"After years of turmoil and a valiant effort by its latest CEO Larry Culp, General Electric (GE) finally gave up in its efforts to salvage its broad-reaching business as a singular unit.\nThe company has consistently spun off numerous assets across the sprawling conglomerate in recent years to lessen its debt load. Perhaps most important was a $20 billion deal to ship its biopharmaceutical business to Danaher (DHR) in 2020. Yet, it appears the moves were not enough to satisfy Culp's ambitious recovery goals for the once-great industrial giant.\n\"The world demands-and deserves-we bring our best to solve the biggest challenges in flight, healthcare, and energy,\" Culp said in a statement on Tuesday. \"By creating three industry-leading, global public companies, each can benefit from greater focus, tailored capital allocation, and strategic flexibility to drive long-term growth and value for customers, investors, and employees. We are putting our technology expertise, leadership, and global reach to work to better serve our customers.\"\nSimilarly, the lawsuit-besieged Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)announced it would spin off its consumer health division from its higher growth pharmaceutical and medical devices divisions in the coming two years.\nJudging by the jump in GE stock after the announcement and the early jolt to Johnson & Johnson stock after its announcement Friday,the market certainly looks as though it was offering its initial approval for the streamlining of separate companies. Still, a few questions quickly come to mind.\nFirst, is this indeed a deft move by management in both cases and therefore deserving of the share-price reaction? And if so, are there more companies that could benefit from following the example set by both of these storied companies?\nBetter After a Breakup?\nThe first line of questioning is one of whether or not two or three firms are truly better than one.\nOn paper, it would certainly appear to be so. As of Thursday's market open, GE touted a valuation of about $119 billion as a total entity. However, when broken into constituent parts, RBC Capital Markets analyst Deane Dray suggested up to a 20% upside for investors. Judging by company metrics and projections, it could well be even higher.\nAlso, each of the spun-off GE units will be less encumbered by the debt of their former counterparts within the broader company, especially as asset sales in recent years alleviate debt and pension issues. Further, future deals are more likely to reach approval based upon diminished antitrust risk, opening a much wider world of opportunity for investors in the streamlined companies.\nThe logic is very much the same for Johnson & Johnson as its pharmaceutical business breaks free from the burdensome troubles of lawsuits over talcum-powder products as well as low-margin medicines like Tylenol. Separation is seen as a key step toward unlocking innovation.\n\"For the new Johnson & Johnson, this planned separation underscores our focus on delivering industry-leading biopharmaceutical and medical device innovation and technology with the goal of bringing new solutions to market for patients and healthcare systems, while creating sustainable value for shareholders,\" CEO Alex Gorsky explained in a statement. \"We believe that the New Consumer Health Company would be a global leader across attractive and growing consumer health categories, and a streamlined and targeted corporate structure would provide it with the agility and flexibility to grow its iconic portfolio of brands and innovate new products.\"\nTo be sure, these targets and optimistic angles assume a rosy trajectory for each of the newly formed firms. As the example of DowDupont (now Dupont (DD) , Dow Inc. (DOW) , and Corteva (CTVA) ) shows, splitting up historic firms with sprawling business is not always a process that progresses precisely to plan.\nSince splitting, the two storied industrial companies, once combined into one mega-conglomerate, have not had much success.\n\"New Dow will be well positioned to drive best-in-class financial performance and shareholder returns,\" Dow CEO Jim Fitterling said ahead of the firm's 2019 spinoff to a standalone firm. \"We have a focused playbook of cost and growth drivers, clear and disciplined capital allocation priorities and a strong balance sheet. Our path to shareholder value creation is straightforward and in our control.\"\nThese pronouncements are very much in line with what GE has said of each of its planned new standalone entities. Also, in a move very much reminiscent of GE's quarterly results in recent years, the pronouncement promised much more than what has actually been delivered.\nSince it's spinoff was official in April 2019, DOW stock has marked a less than 10% gain. Meanwhile, the S&P has risen over 60% over the same period.\nAn Example to Follow?\nStill, assuming things do go well post-breakup, these moves could serve as a benchmark for other bigger, older, and perhaps bloated companies. At the very least, this is the logic adopted not only by aging and perhaps overcomplicated American conglomerates like GE and Johnson & Johnson, but also the nearly 150-year-old Japanese giant Toshiba (TOSBF) . In short, it looks as though a trend is taking hold.\n\"Companies that have very diversified portfolios continue to dilute the value to the shareholders,\" David Braun, CEO of M&A advisory firm Capstone Strategic, told Real Money. \"We are in an era where technology and access to capital are different things. A conglomerate is going to have trouble competing.\"\nHe suggested that Emerson Electric (EMR) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)   (BRK.B) are two companies that could likely benefit from a similar breakup.\n\"They continue to stockpile excess cash they cannot deploy,\" Braun added, voicing the drawbacks of the behemoth business. \"I'm not sure they benefit from that model any longer.\"\nOn the former, he is far from the first to suggest such a move. RBC's Deane Dray has actually been calling for such a breakup for a few years, alongside 3M (MMM) and Roper Technologies (ROP) , firms he also believes could benefit from being a bit less bulky.\n\"We believe the pendulum is still swinging towards the 'urge to demerge' trend,\" he wrote in a note on Tuesday. \"GE's announcement today could embolden the boards of several other multi-industry companies to move ahead on more aggressive portfolio simplification moves, including Emerson, Roper Technologies and 3M.\"\nAs far back as 2019, Dray suggested a breakup of Emerson's automation and commercial divisions could be a boon for shareholders. While the stock has been on a roll since the pandemic began, such a breakup has already been intensely considered by management. In early February, Emerson announced it would not pursue a split \"unless a major strategic acquisition catalyst is actioned.\"\nAt the least, if such a catalyst is to appear the company is clearly willing to consider such an option.\nFor Berkshire, it is eminently unlikely that any moves come while both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger helm the conglomerate. But prospects for such a breakup could take many forms considering the business spans industries from insurance to construction to railroads. As such, attempting to size up a form that such a move might take is nearly impossible to forecast.\nFinally, the prospects of a 3M breakup are certainly not out of the question.\nInvestors in the storied firm are understandably frustrated. Long-term shareholders have seen the stock stagnate over the past five years, marking a basically flat return even after shares were buoyed by demand for PPE and healthcare equipment that the firm manufactured during the pandemic. Looking back on the boost to the shares, many might have been happier with a pure-play option for healthcare and protective equipment rather than a company also weighed down by industrial, transportation, and consumer segments.\nToward this end, the company may have already telegraphed its intention to move toward breaking up. In March 2019, the company divided its business into four units. The units, entitled safety & industrial, transportation & electronics, healthcare, and consumer respectively, were created in order to focus the business.\n\"We are continuing to advance 3M into the future, and today's actions will strengthen our ability to meet the fast-moving needs of our customers,\" 3M CEO Mike Roman said at the time. \"Our new alignment will leverage our business transformation progress, accelerate growth and deliver greater operational efficiencies.\"\nAs operational efficiencies have not materialized to the point of elevating the share price, it is not unreasonable to ask questions as to why separate businesses might further tap into the desired efficiency. In short, the healthcare business might be stronger if it was no longer adhered to a scotch tape and post-it manufacturer and vice versa.\nIn the end, if the pursuit of separate businesses proves successful in each of the current experiments under way, the lesson may be that bigger is not always better. For investors, it might also open a number of pure-play options that provide a better investment than their parent companies do at present.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JNJ":0.9,"GE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847825024,"gmtCreate":1636507696461,"gmtModify":1636507696906,"author":{"id":"3586416322315154","authorId":"3586416322315154","name":"Waiyanno","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d94e88cfc13d3e583872213190b39f22","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586416322315154","idStr":"3586416322315154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand(NAKD)$</a>👀👀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand(NAKD)$</a>👀👀","text":"$Naked 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08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GE and JNJ Aren't the Only Aging Companies That Could Benefit From a Breakup<blockquote>通用电气和强生并不是唯一可以从分拆中受益的老龄化公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178164317","media":"Thestreet","summary":"After years of turmoil and a valiant effort by its latest CEO Larry Culp, General Electric (GE) fina","content":"<p>After years of turmoil and a valiant effort by its latest CEO Larry Culp, General Electric (GE) finally gave up in its efforts to salvage its broad-reaching business as a singular unit.</p><p><blockquote>经过多年的动荡和新任首席执行官拉里·卡尔普的勇敢努力，通用电气(GE)最终放弃了将其广泛业务作为一个单一部门挽救的努力。</blockquote></p><p> The company has consistently spun off numerous assets across the sprawling conglomerate in recent years to lessen its debt load. Perhaps most important was a $20 billion deal to ship its biopharmaceutical business to Danaher (DHR) in 2020. Yet, it appears the moves were not enough to satisfy Culp's ambitious recovery goals for the once-great industrial giant.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，该公司不断剥离整个庞大企业集团的大量资产，以减轻债务负担。也许最重要的是2020年将其生物制药业务转移给丹纳赫(DHR)的200亿美元交易。然而，这些举措似乎不足以满足卡尔普对这家曾经伟大的工业巨头雄心勃勃的复苏目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"The world demands-and deserves-we bring our best to solve the biggest challenges in flight, healthcare, and energy,\" Culp said in a statement on Tuesday. \"By creating three industry-leading, global public companies, each can benefit from greater focus, tailored capital allocation, and strategic flexibility to drive long-term growth and value for customers, investors, and employees. We are putting our technology expertise, leadership, and global reach to work to better serve our customers.\"</p><p><blockquote>卡尔普在周二的一份声明中表示：“世界要求——也应该——我们尽最大努力解决飞行、医疗保健和能源领域的最大挑战。”“通过创建三家行业领先的全球上市公司，每家公司都可以从更大的关注、量身定制的资本配置和战略灵活性中受益，以推动客户、投资者和员工的长期增长和价值。我们正在利用我们的技术专业知识、领导力和全球影响力来更好地为我们的客户服务。”</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, the lawsuit-besieged Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)announced it would spin off its consumer health division&nbsp;from its higher growth pharmaceutical and medical devices divisions in the coming two years.</p><p><blockquote>同样，饱受诉讼困扰的强生公司（JNJ）宣布将在未来两年内将其消费者健康部门从增长较快的制药和医疗器械部门中剥离出来。</blockquote></p><p> Judging by the&nbsp;jump in GE stock after the announcement&nbsp;and the early jolt to Johnson &amp; Johnson stock after its announcement Friday<u>,</u>the market certainly looks as though it was offering its initial approval for the streamlining of separate companies. Still, a few questions quickly come to mind.</p><p><blockquote>从通用电气股票在公告后的上涨以及强生公司股票在周五公告后的早期震荡来看<u>,</u>市场看起来确实对精简独立公司提供了初步批准。尽管如此，几个问题很快浮现在脑海中。</blockquote></p><p> First, is this indeed a deft move by management in both cases and therefore deserving of the share-price reaction? And if so, are there more companies that could benefit from following the example set by both of these storied companies?</p><p><blockquote>首先，在这两种情况下，这确实是管理层的灵巧举措，因此值得股价反应吗？如果是这样，是否有更多的公司可以从这两家传奇公司树立的榜样中受益？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Better After a Breakup?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分手后更好？</b></blockquote></p><p> The first line of questioning is one of whether or not two or three firms are truly better than one.</p><p><blockquote>第一个问题是两三家公司是否真的比一家好。</blockquote></p><p> On paper, it would certainly appear to be so. As of Thursday's market open, GE touted a valuation of about $119 billion as a total entity. However, when broken into constituent parts, RBC Capital Markets analyst Deane Dray suggested up to a 20% upside for investors. Judging by company metrics and projections, it could well be even higher.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，情况确实如此。截至周四开盘，通用电气的整体估值约为1190亿美元。然而，当细分为各个组成部分时，加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师迪恩·德雷(Deane Dray)建议投资者最多有20%的上涨空间。从公司指标和预测来看，这个数字很可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> Also, each of the spun-off GE units will be less encumbered by the debt of their former counterparts within the broader company, especially as asset sales in recent years alleviate debt and pension issues. Further, future deals are more likely to reach approval based upon diminished antitrust risk, opening a much wider world of opportunity for investors in the streamlined companies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，每个分拆后的通用电气部门都将减少公司内前同行的债务负担，特别是近年来的资产出售缓解了债务和养老金问题。此外，基于反垄断风险的降低，未来的交易更有可能获得批准，为精简后公司的投资者打开了更广阔的机会世界。</blockquote></p><p> The logic is very much the same for Johnson &amp; Johnson as its pharmaceutical business breaks free from the burdensome troubles of&nbsp;lawsuits over talcum-powder&nbsp;products as well as low-margin medicines like Tylenol. Separation is seen as a key step toward unlocking innovation.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司的逻辑非常相似，因为其制药业务摆脱了滑石粉产品以及泰诺等低利润药物的诉讼麻烦。分离被视为开启创新的关键一步。</blockquote></p><p> \"For the new Johnson &amp; Johnson, this planned separation underscores our focus on delivering industry-leading biopharmaceutical and medical device innovation and technology with the goal of bringing new solutions to market for patients and healthcare systems, while creating sustainable value for shareholders,\" CEO Alex Gorsky explained in a statement. \"We believe that the New Consumer Health Company would be a global leader across attractive and growing consumer health categories, and a streamlined and targeted corporate structure would provide it with the agility and flexibility to grow its iconic portfolio of brands and innovate new products.\"</p><p><blockquote>“对于新的强生公司来说，这一计划中的分离强调了我们对提供行业领先的生物制药和医疗器械创新和技术的关注，目标是为患者和医疗保健系统将新的解决方案推向市场，同时为股东创造可持续的价值，”首席执行官亚历克斯·戈尔斯基在一份声明中解释道。“我们相信，新的消费者健康公司将成为有吸引力且不断增长的消费者健康类别的全球领导者，精简且有针对性的公司结构将为其提供敏捷性和灵活性，以发展其标志性品牌组合和创新新产品。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, these targets and optimistic angles assume a rosy trajectory for each of the newly formed firms. As the example of DowDupont (now Dupont (DD) , Dow Inc. (DOW) , and Corteva (CTVA) ) shows, splitting up historic firms with sprawling business is not always a process that progresses precisely to plan.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这些目标和乐观的角度为每个新成立的公司假设了一个乐观的轨迹。正如陶氏杜邦公司（现为杜邦公司(DD)、陶氏公司(DOW)和Corteva(CTVA)）的例子所示，拆分业务庞大的历史悠久的公司并不总是一个完全按照计划进行的过程。</blockquote></p><p> Since splitting, the two storied industrial companies, once combined into one mega-conglomerate, have not had much success.</p><p><blockquote>自拆分以来，这两家曾经合并为一家大型企业集团的传奇工业公司并没有取得多大成功。</blockquote></p><p> \"New Dow will be well positioned to drive best-in-class financial performance and shareholder returns,\" Dow CEO Jim Fitterling said ahead of the firm's 2019 spinoff to a standalone firm. \"We have a focused playbook of cost and growth drivers, clear and disciplined capital allocation priorities and a strong balance sheet. Our path to shareholder value creation is straightforward and in our control.\"</p><p><blockquote>陶氏化学首席执行官吉姆·菲特林(Jim Fitterling)在该公司2019年分拆为独立公司之前表示：“新陶氏化学将处于有利地位，能够推动一流的财务业绩和股东回报。”“我们有一个关于成本和增长驱动因素的集中剧本、明确且严格的资本配置优先事项以及强大的资产负债表。我们创造股东价值的道路很简单，并且在我们的控制之下。”</blockquote></p><p> These pronouncements are very much in line with what GE has said of each of its planned new standalone entities. Also, in a move very much reminiscent of GE's quarterly results in recent years, the pronouncement promised much more than what has actually been delivered.</p><p><blockquote>这些声明与通用电气对其计划中的每个新独立实体的说法非常一致。此外，这一举动很容易让人想起通用电气近年来的季度业绩，该声明承诺的内容远多于实际兑现的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since it's spinoff was official in April 2019, DOW stock has marked a less than 10% gain. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P has risen over 60% over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年4月正式分拆以来，道指股价涨幅不到10%。与此同时，标准普尔指数同期上涨了60%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Example to Follow?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得效仿的榜样？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Still, assuming things do go well post-breakup, these moves could serve as a benchmark for other bigger, older, and perhaps bloated companies. At the very least, this is the logic adopted not only by aging and perhaps overcomplicated American conglomerates like GE and Johnson &amp; Johnson, but also the nearly 150-year-old Japanese giant Toshiba (TOSBF) . In short, it looks as though a trend is taking hold.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，假设分手后事情确实进展顺利，这些举措可以作为其他更大、更老、或许臃肿的公司的基准。至少，这不仅是通用电气和强生等老化、或许过于复杂的美国企业集团采用的逻辑，也是拥有近150年历史的日本巨头东芝（TOSBF）采用的逻辑。简而言之，看起来一种趋势正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> \"Companies that have very diversified portfolios continue to dilute the value to the shareholders,\" David Braun, CEO of M&amp;A advisory firm Capstone Strategic, told Real Money. \"We are in an era where technology and access to capital are different things. A conglomerate is going to have trouble competing.\"</p><p><blockquote>并购咨询公司Capstone Strategic首席执行官David Braun告诉Real Money：“投资组合非常多元化的公司继续稀释股东的价值。”“我们生活在一个技术和获得资本是不同的时代。企业集团将难以竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> He suggested that Emerson Electric (EMR) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) &nbsp; (BRK.B) are two companies that could likely benefit from a similar breakup.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，艾默生电气（EMR）和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）是两家可能从类似分拆中受益的公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"They continue to stockpile excess cash they cannot deploy,\" Braun added, voicing the drawbacks of the behemoth business. \"I'm not sure they benefit from that model any longer.\"</p><p><blockquote>“他们继续储存无法部署的多余现金，”布劳恩补充道，并表达了这项庞大业务的缺点。“我不确定他们是否不再从这种模式中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On the former, he is far from the first to suggest such a move. RBC's Deane Dray has actually been calling for such a breakup for a few years, alongside 3M (MMM) and Roper Technologies (ROP) , firms he also believes could benefit from being a bit less bulky.</p><p><blockquote>就前者而言，他远不是第一个建议采取这一举措的人。加拿大皇家银行(RBC)的迪恩·德雷(Deane Dray)实际上几年来一直呼吁与3M（3M）和Roper Technologies(ROP)进行这样的分拆，他还认为这些公司可以从规模缩小中受益。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the pendulum is still swinging towards the 'urge to demerge' trend,\" he wrote in a note on Tuesday. \"GE's announcement today could embolden the boards of several other multi-industry companies to move ahead on more aggressive portfolio simplification moves, including Emerson, Roper Technologies and 3M.\"</p><p><blockquote>他在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们认为钟摆仍在朝着‘分裂的冲动’趋势摆动。”“通用电气今天的声明可能会鼓励其他几家多行业公司的董事会采取更积极的投资组合简化举措，包括艾默生、罗珀科技和3M。”</blockquote></p><p> As far back as 2019, Dray suggested a breakup of Emerson's automation and commercial divisions could be a boon for shareholders. While the stock has been on a roll since the pandemic began, such a breakup has already been intensely considered by management. In early February, Emerson announced it would not pursue a split \"unless a major strategic acquisition catalyst is actioned.\"</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，德雷就表示，艾默生自动化和商业部门的分拆可能会给股东带来福音。尽管自疫情爆发以来该股一直在上涨，但管理层已经认真考虑过这种分拆。二月初，艾默生宣布“除非采取重大战略收购催化剂”，否则不会寻求分拆。</blockquote></p><p> At the least, if such a catalyst is to appear the company is clearly willing to consider such an option.</p><p><blockquote>至少，如果出现这样的催化剂，该公司显然愿意考虑这样的选择。</blockquote></p><p> For Berkshire, it is eminently unlikely that any moves come while both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger helm the conglomerate.&nbsp;But prospects for such a breakup could take many forms considering the business spans industries from insurance to construction to railroads. As such, attempting to size up a form that such a move might take is nearly impossible to forecast.</p><p><blockquote>对于伯克希尔来说，在沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格同时执掌该集团的情况下，极不可能有任何举措。但考虑到该业务横跨从保险到建筑再到铁路等多个行业，这种拆分的前景可能有多种形式。因此，试图估计这种举动可能采取的形式几乎是不可能预测的。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the prospects of a 3M breakup are certainly not out of the question.</p><p><blockquote>最后，3M分拆的前景当然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors in the storied firm are understandably frustrated. Long-term shareholders have seen the stock stagnate over the past five years, marking a basically flat return even after shares were buoyed by demand for PPE and healthcare equipment that the firm manufactured during the pandemic. Looking back on the boost to the shares, many might have been happier with a pure-play option for healthcare and protective equipment rather than a company also weighed down by industrial, transportation, and consumer segments.</p><p><blockquote>这家传奇公司的投资者感到沮丧是可以理解的。长期股东发现该股在过去五年中停滞不前，即使该公司在大流行期间生产的个人防护设备和医疗保健设备的需求提振了该股，回报率也基本持平。回顾股价的上涨，许多人可能更愿意选择纯粹的医疗保健和防护设备，而不是一家同样受到工业、运输和消费领域拖累的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Toward this end, the company may have already telegraphed its intention to move toward breaking up. In March 2019, the company divided its business into four units. The units, entitled safety &amp; industrial, transportation &amp; electronics, healthcare, and consumer respectively, were created in order to focus the business.</p><p><blockquote>为此，该公司可能已经传达了走向分拆的意图。2019年3月，公司将业务拆分为四个部门。这些部门分别名为安全与工业、运输与电子、医疗保健和消费者，是为了集中业务而创建的。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are continuing to advance 3M into the future, and today's actions will strengthen our ability to meet the fast-moving needs of our customers,\" 3M CEO Mike Roman said at the time. \"Our new alignment will leverage our business transformation progress, accelerate growth and deliver greater operational efficiencies.\"</p><p><blockquote>3M首席执行官Mike Roman当时表示：“我们正在继续推动3M走向未来，今天的行动将增强我们满足客户快速变化需求的能力。”“我们的新调整将利用我们的业务转型进展，加速增长并提高运营效率。”</blockquote></p><p> As operational efficiencies have not materialized to the point of elevating the share price, it is not unreasonable to ask questions as to why separate businesses might further tap into the desired efficiency. In short, the healthcare business might be stronger if it was no longer adhered to a scotch tape and post-it manufacturer and vice versa.</p><p><blockquote>由于运营效率尚未达到提高股价的程度，因此提出为什么独立业务可能会进一步利用所需效率的问题并非没有道理。简而言之，如果医疗保健业务不再依赖透明胶带和便利贴制造商，它可能会更强大，反之亦然。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, if the pursuit of separate businesses proves successful in each of the current experiments under way, the lesson may be that bigger is not always better. For investors, it might also open a number of pure-play options that provide a better investment than their parent companies do at present.</p><p><blockquote>最终，如果对独立业务的追求在当前正在进行的每一项实验中都被证明是成功的，那么教训可能是越大并不总是越好。对于投资者来说，它还可能提供许多纯粹的选择，提供比母公司目前更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GE and JNJ Aren't the Only Aging Companies That Could Benefit From a Breakup<blockquote>通用电气和强生并不是唯一可以从分拆中受益的老龄化公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGE and JNJ Aren't the Only Aging Companies That Could Benefit From a Breakup<blockquote>通用电气和强生并不是唯一可以从分拆中受益的老龄化公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-15 08:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After years of turmoil and a valiant effort by its latest CEO Larry Culp, General Electric (GE) finally gave up in its efforts to salvage its broad-reaching business as a singular unit.</p><p><blockquote>经过多年的动荡和新任首席执行官拉里·卡尔普的勇敢努力，通用电气(GE)最终放弃了将其广泛业务作为一个单一部门挽救的努力。</blockquote></p><p> The company has consistently spun off numerous assets across the sprawling conglomerate in recent years to lessen its debt load. Perhaps most important was a $20 billion deal to ship its biopharmaceutical business to Danaher (DHR) in 2020. Yet, it appears the moves were not enough to satisfy Culp's ambitious recovery goals for the once-great industrial giant.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，该公司不断剥离整个庞大企业集团的大量资产，以减轻债务负担。也许最重要的是2020年将其生物制药业务转移给丹纳赫(DHR)的200亿美元交易。然而，这些举措似乎不足以满足卡尔普对这家曾经伟大的工业巨头雄心勃勃的复苏目标。</blockquote></p><p> \"The world demands-and deserves-we bring our best to solve the biggest challenges in flight, healthcare, and energy,\" Culp said in a statement on Tuesday. \"By creating three industry-leading, global public companies, each can benefit from greater focus, tailored capital allocation, and strategic flexibility to drive long-term growth and value for customers, investors, and employees. We are putting our technology expertise, leadership, and global reach to work to better serve our customers.\"</p><p><blockquote>卡尔普在周二的一份声明中表示：“世界要求——也应该——我们尽最大努力解决飞行、医疗保健和能源领域的最大挑战。”“通过创建三家行业领先的全球上市公司，每家公司都可以从更大的关注、量身定制的资本配置和战略灵活性中受益，以推动客户、投资者和员工的长期增长和价值。我们正在利用我们的技术专业知识、领导力和全球影响力来更好地为我们的客户服务。”</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, the lawsuit-besieged Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)announced it would spin off its consumer health division&nbsp;from its higher growth pharmaceutical and medical devices divisions in the coming two years.</p><p><blockquote>同样，饱受诉讼困扰的强生公司（JNJ）宣布将在未来两年内将其消费者健康部门从增长较快的制药和医疗器械部门中剥离出来。</blockquote></p><p> Judging by the&nbsp;jump in GE stock after the announcement&nbsp;and the early jolt to Johnson &amp; Johnson stock after its announcement Friday<u>,</u>the market certainly looks as though it was offering its initial approval for the streamlining of separate companies. Still, a few questions quickly come to mind.</p><p><blockquote>从通用电气股票在公告后的上涨以及强生公司股票在周五公告后的早期震荡来看<u>,</u>市场看起来确实对精简独立公司提供了初步批准。尽管如此，几个问题很快浮现在脑海中。</blockquote></p><p> First, is this indeed a deft move by management in both cases and therefore deserving of the share-price reaction? And if so, are there more companies that could benefit from following the example set by both of these storied companies?</p><p><blockquote>首先，在这两种情况下，这确实是管理层的灵巧举措，因此值得股价反应吗？如果是这样，是否有更多的公司可以从这两家传奇公司树立的榜样中受益？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Better After a Breakup?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分手后更好？</b></blockquote></p><p> The first line of questioning is one of whether or not two or three firms are truly better than one.</p><p><blockquote>第一个问题是两三家公司是否真的比一家好。</blockquote></p><p> On paper, it would certainly appear to be so. As of Thursday's market open, GE touted a valuation of about $119 billion as a total entity. However, when broken into constituent parts, RBC Capital Markets analyst Deane Dray suggested up to a 20% upside for investors. Judging by company metrics and projections, it could well be even higher.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，情况确实如此。截至周四开盘，通用电气的整体估值约为1190亿美元。然而，当细分为各个组成部分时，加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师迪恩·德雷(Deane Dray)建议投资者最多有20%的上涨空间。从公司指标和预测来看，这个数字很可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> Also, each of the spun-off GE units will be less encumbered by the debt of their former counterparts within the broader company, especially as asset sales in recent years alleviate debt and pension issues. Further, future deals are more likely to reach approval based upon diminished antitrust risk, opening a much wider world of opportunity for investors in the streamlined companies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，每个分拆后的通用电气部门都将减少公司内前同行的债务负担，特别是近年来的资产出售缓解了债务和养老金问题。此外，基于反垄断风险的降低，未来的交易更有可能获得批准，为精简后公司的投资者打开了更广阔的机会世界。</blockquote></p><p> The logic is very much the same for Johnson &amp; Johnson as its pharmaceutical business breaks free from the burdensome troubles of&nbsp;lawsuits over talcum-powder&nbsp;products as well as low-margin medicines like Tylenol. Separation is seen as a key step toward unlocking innovation.</p><p><blockquote>强生公司的逻辑非常相似，因为其制药业务摆脱了滑石粉产品以及泰诺等低利润药物的诉讼麻烦。分离被视为开启创新的关键一步。</blockquote></p><p> \"For the new Johnson &amp; Johnson, this planned separation underscores our focus on delivering industry-leading biopharmaceutical and medical device innovation and technology with the goal of bringing new solutions to market for patients and healthcare systems, while creating sustainable value for shareholders,\" CEO Alex Gorsky explained in a statement. \"We believe that the New Consumer Health Company would be a global leader across attractive and growing consumer health categories, and a streamlined and targeted corporate structure would provide it with the agility and flexibility to grow its iconic portfolio of brands and innovate new products.\"</p><p><blockquote>“对于新的强生公司来说，这一计划中的分离强调了我们对提供行业领先的生物制药和医疗器械创新和技术的关注，目标是为患者和医疗保健系统将新的解决方案推向市场，同时为股东创造可持续的价值，”首席执行官亚历克斯·戈尔斯基在一份声明中解释道。“我们相信，新的消费者健康公司将成为有吸引力且不断增长的消费者健康类别的全球领导者，精简且有针对性的公司结构将为其提供敏捷性和灵活性，以发展其标志性品牌组合和创新新产品。”</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, these targets and optimistic angles assume a rosy trajectory for each of the newly formed firms. As the example of DowDupont (now Dupont (DD) , Dow Inc. (DOW) , and Corteva (CTVA) ) shows, splitting up historic firms with sprawling business is not always a process that progresses precisely to plan.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这些目标和乐观的角度为每个新成立的公司假设了一个乐观的轨迹。正如陶氏杜邦公司（现为杜邦公司(DD)、陶氏公司(DOW)和Corteva(CTVA)）的例子所示，拆分业务庞大的历史悠久的公司并不总是一个完全按照计划进行的过程。</blockquote></p><p> Since splitting, the two storied industrial companies, once combined into one mega-conglomerate, have not had much success.</p><p><blockquote>自拆分以来，这两家曾经合并为一家大型企业集团的传奇工业公司并没有取得多大成功。</blockquote></p><p> \"New Dow will be well positioned to drive best-in-class financial performance and shareholder returns,\" Dow CEO Jim Fitterling said ahead of the firm's 2019 spinoff to a standalone firm. \"We have a focused playbook of cost and growth drivers, clear and disciplined capital allocation priorities and a strong balance sheet. Our path to shareholder value creation is straightforward and in our control.\"</p><p><blockquote>陶氏化学首席执行官吉姆·菲特林(Jim Fitterling)在该公司2019年分拆为独立公司之前表示：“新陶氏化学将处于有利地位，能够推动一流的财务业绩和股东回报。”“我们有一个关于成本和增长驱动因素的集中剧本、明确且严格的资本配置优先事项以及强大的资产负债表。我们创造股东价值的道路很简单，并且在我们的控制之下。”</blockquote></p><p> These pronouncements are very much in line with what GE has said of each of its planned new standalone entities. Also, in a move very much reminiscent of GE's quarterly results in recent years, the pronouncement promised much more than what has actually been delivered.</p><p><blockquote>这些声明与通用电气对其计划中的每个新独立实体的说法非常一致。此外，这一举动很容易让人想起通用电气近年来的季度业绩，该声明承诺的内容远多于实际兑现的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since it's spinoff was official in April 2019, DOW stock has marked a less than 10% gain. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P has risen over 60% over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年4月正式分拆以来，道指股价涨幅不到10%。与此同时，标准普尔指数同期上涨了60%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Example to Follow?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得效仿的榜样？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Still, assuming things do go well post-breakup, these moves could serve as a benchmark for other bigger, older, and perhaps bloated companies. At the very least, this is the logic adopted not only by aging and perhaps overcomplicated American conglomerates like GE and Johnson &amp; Johnson, but also the nearly 150-year-old Japanese giant Toshiba (TOSBF) . In short, it looks as though a trend is taking hold.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，假设分手后事情确实进展顺利，这些举措可以作为其他更大、更老、或许臃肿的公司的基准。至少，这不仅是通用电气和强生等老化、或许过于复杂的美国企业集团采用的逻辑，也是拥有近150年历史的日本巨头东芝（TOSBF）采用的逻辑。简而言之，看起来一种趋势正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> \"Companies that have very diversified portfolios continue to dilute the value to the shareholders,\" David Braun, CEO of M&amp;A advisory firm Capstone Strategic, told Real Money. \"We are in an era where technology and access to capital are different things. A conglomerate is going to have trouble competing.\"</p><p><blockquote>并购咨询公司Capstone Strategic首席执行官David Braun告诉Real Money：“投资组合非常多元化的公司继续稀释股东的价值。”“我们生活在一个技术和获得资本是不同的时代。企业集团将难以竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> He suggested that Emerson Electric (EMR) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) &nbsp; (BRK.B) are two companies that could likely benefit from a similar breakup.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，艾默生电气（EMR）和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）是两家可能从类似分拆中受益的公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"They continue to stockpile excess cash they cannot deploy,\" Braun added, voicing the drawbacks of the behemoth business. \"I'm not sure they benefit from that model any longer.\"</p><p><blockquote>“他们继续储存无法部署的多余现金，”布劳恩补充道，并表达了这项庞大业务的缺点。“我不确定他们是否不再从这种模式中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On the former, he is far from the first to suggest such a move. RBC's Deane Dray has actually been calling for such a breakup for a few years, alongside 3M (MMM) and Roper Technologies (ROP) , firms he also believes could benefit from being a bit less bulky.</p><p><blockquote>就前者而言，他远不是第一个建议采取这一举措的人。加拿大皇家银行(RBC)的迪恩·德雷(Deane Dray)实际上几年来一直呼吁与3M（3M）和Roper Technologies(ROP)进行这样的分拆，他还认为这些公司可以从规模缩小中受益。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the pendulum is still swinging towards the 'urge to demerge' trend,\" he wrote in a note on Tuesday. \"GE's announcement today could embolden the boards of several other multi-industry companies to move ahead on more aggressive portfolio simplification moves, including Emerson, Roper Technologies and 3M.\"</p><p><blockquote>他在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们认为钟摆仍在朝着‘分裂的冲动’趋势摆动。”“通用电气今天的声明可能会鼓励其他几家多行业公司的董事会采取更积极的投资组合简化举措，包括艾默生、罗珀科技和3M。”</blockquote></p><p> As far back as 2019, Dray suggested a breakup of Emerson's automation and commercial divisions could be a boon for shareholders. While the stock has been on a roll since the pandemic began, such a breakup has already been intensely considered by management. In early February, Emerson announced it would not pursue a split \"unless a major strategic acquisition catalyst is actioned.\"</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，德雷就表示，艾默生自动化和商业部门的分拆可能会给股东带来福音。尽管自疫情爆发以来该股一直在上涨，但管理层已经认真考虑过这种分拆。二月初，艾默生宣布“除非采取重大战略收购催化剂”，否则不会寻求分拆。</blockquote></p><p> At the least, if such a catalyst is to appear the company is clearly willing to consider such an option.</p><p><blockquote>至少，如果出现这样的催化剂，该公司显然愿意考虑这样的选择。</blockquote></p><p> For Berkshire, it is eminently unlikely that any moves come while both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger helm the conglomerate.&nbsp;But prospects for such a breakup could take many forms considering the business spans industries from insurance to construction to railroads. As such, attempting to size up a form that such a move might take is nearly impossible to forecast.</p><p><blockquote>对于伯克希尔来说，在沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格同时执掌该集团的情况下，极不可能有任何举措。但考虑到该业务横跨从保险到建筑再到铁路等多个行业，这种拆分的前景可能有多种形式。因此，试图估计这种举动可能采取的形式几乎是不可能预测的。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, the prospects of a 3M breakup are certainly not out of the question.</p><p><blockquote>最后，3M分拆的前景当然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors in the storied firm are understandably frustrated. Long-term shareholders have seen the stock stagnate over the past five years, marking a basically flat return even after shares were buoyed by demand for PPE and healthcare equipment that the firm manufactured during the pandemic. Looking back on the boost to the shares, many might have been happier with a pure-play option for healthcare and protective equipment rather than a company also weighed down by industrial, transportation, and consumer segments.</p><p><blockquote>这家传奇公司的投资者感到沮丧是可以理解的。长期股东发现该股在过去五年中停滞不前，即使该公司在大流行期间生产的个人防护设备和医疗保健设备的需求提振了该股，回报率也基本持平。回顾股价的上涨，许多人可能更愿意选择纯粹的医疗保健和防护设备，而不是一家同样受到工业、运输和消费领域拖累的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Toward this end, the company may have already telegraphed its intention to move toward breaking up. In March 2019, the company divided its business into four units. The units, entitled safety &amp; industrial, transportation &amp; electronics, healthcare, and consumer respectively, were created in order to focus the business.</p><p><blockquote>为此，该公司可能已经传达了走向分拆的意图。2019年3月，公司将业务拆分为四个部门。这些部门分别名为安全与工业、运输与电子、医疗保健和消费者，是为了集中业务而创建的。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are continuing to advance 3M into the future, and today's actions will strengthen our ability to meet the fast-moving needs of our customers,\" 3M CEO Mike Roman said at the time. \"Our new alignment will leverage our business transformation progress, accelerate growth and deliver greater operational efficiencies.\"</p><p><blockquote>3M首席执行官Mike Roman当时表示：“我们正在继续推动3M走向未来，今天的行动将增强我们满足客户快速变化需求的能力。”“我们的新调整将利用我们的业务转型进展，加速增长并提高运营效率。”</blockquote></p><p> As operational efficiencies have not materialized to the point of elevating the share price, it is not unreasonable to ask questions as to why separate businesses might further tap into the desired efficiency. In short, the healthcare business might be stronger if it was no longer adhered to a scotch tape and post-it manufacturer and vice versa.</p><p><blockquote>由于运营效率尚未达到提高股价的程度，因此提出为什么独立业务可能会进一步利用所需效率的问题并非没有道理。简而言之，如果医疗保健业务不再依赖透明胶带和便利贴制造商，它可能会更强大，反之亦然。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, if the pursuit of separate businesses proves successful in each of the current experiments under way, the lesson may be that bigger is not always better. For investors, it might also open a number of pure-play options that provide a better investment than their parent companies do at present.</p><p><blockquote>最终，如果对独立业务的追求在当前正在进行的每一项实验中都被证明是成功的，那么教训可能是越大并不总是越好。对于投资者来说，它还可能提供许多纯粹的选择，提供比母公司目前更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/ge-isn-t-the-only-aging-company-that-could-benefit-from-a-breakup-15830176?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GE":"GE航空航天","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/ge-isn-t-the-only-aging-company-that-could-benefit-from-a-breakup-15830176?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178164317","content_text":"After years of turmoil and a valiant effort by its latest CEO Larry Culp, General Electric (GE) finally gave up in its efforts to salvage its broad-reaching business as a singular unit.\nThe company has consistently spun off numerous assets across the sprawling conglomerate in recent years to lessen its debt load. Perhaps most important was a $20 billion deal to ship its biopharmaceutical business to Danaher (DHR) in 2020. Yet, it appears the moves were not enough to satisfy Culp's ambitious recovery goals for the once-great industrial giant.\n\"The world demands-and deserves-we bring our best to solve the biggest challenges in flight, healthcare, and energy,\" Culp said in a statement on Tuesday. \"By creating three industry-leading, global public companies, each can benefit from greater focus, tailored capital allocation, and strategic flexibility to drive long-term growth and value for customers, investors, and employees. We are putting our technology expertise, leadership, and global reach to work to better serve our customers.\"\nSimilarly, the lawsuit-besieged Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)announced it would spin off its consumer health division from its higher growth pharmaceutical and medical devices divisions in the coming two years.\nJudging by the jump in GE stock after the announcement and the early jolt to Johnson & Johnson stock after its announcement Friday,the market certainly looks as though it was offering its initial approval for the streamlining of separate companies. Still, a few questions quickly come to mind.\nFirst, is this indeed a deft move by management in both cases and therefore deserving of the share-price reaction? And if so, are there more companies that could benefit from following the example set by both of these storied companies?\nBetter After a Breakup?\nThe first line of questioning is one of whether or not two or three firms are truly better than one.\nOn paper, it would certainly appear to be so. As of Thursday's market open, GE touted a valuation of about $119 billion as a total entity. However, when broken into constituent parts, RBC Capital Markets analyst Deane Dray suggested up to a 20% upside for investors. Judging by company metrics and projections, it could well be even higher.\nAlso, each of the spun-off GE units will be less encumbered by the debt of their former counterparts within the broader company, especially as asset sales in recent years alleviate debt and pension issues. Further, future deals are more likely to reach approval based upon diminished antitrust risk, opening a much wider world of opportunity for investors in the streamlined companies.\nThe logic is very much the same for Johnson & Johnson as its pharmaceutical business breaks free from the burdensome troubles of lawsuits over talcum-powder products as well as low-margin medicines like Tylenol. Separation is seen as a key step toward unlocking innovation.\n\"For the new Johnson & Johnson, this planned separation underscores our focus on delivering industry-leading biopharmaceutical and medical device innovation and technology with the goal of bringing new solutions to market for patients and healthcare systems, while creating sustainable value for shareholders,\" CEO Alex Gorsky explained in a statement. \"We believe that the New Consumer Health Company would be a global leader across attractive and growing consumer health categories, and a streamlined and targeted corporate structure would provide it with the agility and flexibility to grow its iconic portfolio of brands and innovate new products.\"\nTo be sure, these targets and optimistic angles assume a rosy trajectory for each of the newly formed firms. As the example of DowDupont (now Dupont (DD) , Dow Inc. (DOW) , and Corteva (CTVA) ) shows, splitting up historic firms with sprawling business is not always a process that progresses precisely to plan.\nSince splitting, the two storied industrial companies, once combined into one mega-conglomerate, have not had much success.\n\"New Dow will be well positioned to drive best-in-class financial performance and shareholder returns,\" Dow CEO Jim Fitterling said ahead of the firm's 2019 spinoff to a standalone firm. \"We have a focused playbook of cost and growth drivers, clear and disciplined capital allocation priorities and a strong balance sheet. Our path to shareholder value creation is straightforward and in our control.\"\nThese pronouncements are very much in line with what GE has said of each of its planned new standalone entities. Also, in a move very much reminiscent of GE's quarterly results in recent years, the pronouncement promised much more than what has actually been delivered.\nSince it's spinoff was official in April 2019, DOW stock has marked a less than 10% gain. Meanwhile, the S&P has risen over 60% over the same period.\nAn Example to Follow?\nStill, assuming things do go well post-breakup, these moves could serve as a benchmark for other bigger, older, and perhaps bloated companies. At the very least, this is the logic adopted not only by aging and perhaps overcomplicated American conglomerates like GE and Johnson & Johnson, but also the nearly 150-year-old Japanese giant Toshiba (TOSBF) . In short, it looks as though a trend is taking hold.\n\"Companies that have very diversified portfolios continue to dilute the value to the shareholders,\" David Braun, CEO of M&A advisory firm Capstone Strategic, told Real Money. \"We are in an era where technology and access to capital are different things. A conglomerate is going to have trouble competing.\"\nHe suggested that Emerson Electric (EMR) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)   (BRK.B) are two companies that could likely benefit from a similar breakup.\n\"They continue to stockpile excess cash they cannot deploy,\" Braun added, voicing the drawbacks of the behemoth business. \"I'm not sure they benefit from that model any longer.\"\nOn the former, he is far from the first to suggest such a move. RBC's Deane Dray has actually been calling for such a breakup for a few years, alongside 3M (MMM) and Roper Technologies (ROP) , firms he also believes could benefit from being a bit less bulky.\n\"We believe the pendulum is still swinging towards the 'urge to demerge' trend,\" he wrote in a note on Tuesday. \"GE's announcement today could embolden the boards of several other multi-industry companies to move ahead on more aggressive portfolio simplification moves, including Emerson, Roper Technologies and 3M.\"\nAs far back as 2019, Dray suggested a breakup of Emerson's automation and commercial divisions could be a boon for shareholders. While the stock has been on a roll since the pandemic began, such a breakup has already been intensely considered by management. In early February, Emerson announced it would not pursue a split \"unless a major strategic acquisition catalyst is actioned.\"\nAt the least, if such a catalyst is to appear the company is clearly willing to consider such an option.\nFor Berkshire, it is eminently unlikely that any moves come while both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger helm the conglomerate. But prospects for such a breakup could take many forms considering the business spans industries from insurance to construction to railroads. As such, attempting to size up a form that such a move might take is nearly impossible to forecast.\nFinally, the prospects of a 3M breakup are certainly not out of the question.\nInvestors in the storied firm are understandably frustrated. Long-term shareholders have seen the stock stagnate over the past five years, marking a basically flat return even after shares were buoyed by demand for PPE and healthcare equipment that the firm manufactured during the pandemic. Looking back on the boost to the shares, many might have been happier with a pure-play option for healthcare and protective equipment rather than a company also weighed down by industrial, transportation, and consumer segments.\nToward this end, the company may have already telegraphed its intention to move toward breaking up. In March 2019, the company divided its business into four units. The units, entitled safety & industrial, transportation & electronics, healthcare, and consumer respectively, were created in order to focus the business.\n\"We are continuing to advance 3M into the future, and today's actions will strengthen our ability to meet the fast-moving needs of our customers,\" 3M CEO Mike Roman said at the time. \"Our new alignment will leverage our business transformation progress, accelerate growth and deliver greater operational efficiencies.\"\nAs operational efficiencies have not materialized to the point of elevating the share price, it is not unreasonable to ask questions as to why separate businesses might further tap into the desired efficiency. In short, the healthcare business might be stronger if it was no longer adhered to a scotch tape and post-it manufacturer and vice versa.\nIn the end, if the pursuit of separate businesses proves successful in each of the current experiments under way, the lesson may be that bigger is not always better. For investors, it might also open a number of pure-play options that provide a better investment than their parent companies do at 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09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SEC Moves First DeFi Unregistered Securities Lawsuit<blockquote>SEC提起首起DeFi未注册证券诉讼</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180529438","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The United States Securities and Exchange Commission  sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance  protocol over activities involved with the project for the first time.What Happened: According to a Friday SEC announcement, the agency has sued Cayman Islands-based Blockchain Credit Partners and two of its top executives over allegedly selling unregistered securities through its DeFi Money Market platform from February 2020 to February 2021. The firm purported","content":"<p><div> The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol over activities involved with the project ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国证券交易委员会（SEC）就该项目涉及的活动起诉了负责开发分散金融（DeFi）协议的组织...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SEC Moves First DeFi Unregistered Securities Lawsuit<blockquote>SEC提起首起DeFi未注册证券诉讼</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSEC Moves First DeFi Unregistered Securities Lawsuit<blockquote>SEC提起首起DeFi未注册证券诉讼</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-08 09:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol over activities involved with the project ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国证券交易委员会（SEC）就该项目涉及的活动起诉了负责开发分散金融（DeFi）协议的组织...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180529438","content_text":"The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol over activities involved with the project for the first time.\nWhat Happened: According to a Friday SEC announcement, the agency has sued Cayman Islands-based Blockchain Credit Partners and two of its top executives over allegedly selling unregistered securities through its DeFi Money Market platform from February 2020 to February 2021. The firm purportedly sold over $30 million worth of two types of tokens that the SEC deemed to be securities that should have been registered as such.\nThe SEC notes that Blockchain Credit Partners founders Gregory Keough and Derek Acree will have to pay fines of $125,000 while the company itself also agreed to pay $12.8 million in disgorgement. The settlement does not indicate an admition or denial the accusations.\nNew Game, Old Rules?\nSEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewal explained that \"full and honest disclosure remains the cornerstone of our securities laws — no matter what technologies are used to offer and sell those securities.\" This comment makes it very clear that slapping the DeFi label on a project and hoping to avoid regulation this way works no better than calling it a \"utility token\" prevented falling under the SEC's scrutiny during 2017's initial coin offering craze.\nThe SEC is trying to send the clear rule that the new kind of financial organizations that operate on blockchains have to still play by the old rules that govern traditional finance. At the same time, market onlookers are not sure if the regulator is actually right.\nIn a way, it is a tour de force where the regulator wins every time it has a way to take enforcement action, but these new organizations potentially have a very real way to make enforcement impossible — or at the very least impractical. The only protection against enforcement by the SEC and other regulators is decentralization and the only reason why the SEC was able to act in this case is that a centralized organization such as Blockchain Credit Partners exists.\nWhat's Next:If no company exists and all that there is to a DeFi protocol is a set of smart contracts deployed on a blockchain by a group of anonymous developers scattered around the world there is very little that the SEC can do short of attacking the blockchain itself. This is where the decentralization of the underlying blockchain comes into play: will the regulators for instance be able to force Ethereum's (CRYPTO: ETH) core development team to write an update stopping such a project?\nIf the regulators would actually be able to force the blockchain's developers to write such an update, would node operators and miners or stakers adopt this software or would they refuse to? Such situations will be the real test of the decentralization and reliability of any blockchain that many are waiting to happen. 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Moon!🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810946085","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171308319,"gmtCreate":1626704674331,"gmtModify":1633924776957,"author":{"id":"3586416322315154","authorId":"3586416322315154","name":"Waiyanno","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d94e88cfc13d3e583872213190b39f22","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586416322315154","idStr":"3586416322315154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171308319","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148039922,"gmtCreate":1625897841266,"gmtModify":1633936232981,"author":{"id":"3586416322315154","authorId":"3586416322315154","name":"Waiyanno","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d94e88cfc13d3e583872213190b39f22","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586416322315154","idStr":"3586416322315154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok 👀","listText":"Ok 👀","text":"Ok 👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148039922","repostId":"2150053623","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150053623","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625883910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2150053623?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 10:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150053623","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an infla","content":"<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘价后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 10:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘价后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150053623","content_text":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge\n\nFears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right one ?\nA Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.\nWhat changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.\nThe first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.\n\"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"\nThe real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.\nBut analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .\nThat Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .\nOne casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.\n\"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.\nSectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.\nJones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.\nAt the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.\nThat sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.\nIn particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.\nInvestors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.\nAnd then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.\n\"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.\nGoodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.\nThe best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.\nReflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.\nAt the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.\nInvestors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127825466,"gmtCreate":1624843866055,"gmtModify":1633948115074,"author":{"id":"3586416322315154","authorId":"3586416322315154","name":"Waiyanno","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d94e88cfc13d3e583872213190b39f22","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586416322315154","idStr":"3586416322315154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👀","listText":"👀","text":"👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127825466","repostId":"2146888571","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128120754,"gmtCreate":1624506924078,"gmtModify":1631890613135,"author":{"id":"3586416322315154","authorId":"3586416322315154","name":"Waiyanno","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d94e88cfc13d3e583872213190b39f22","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586416322315154","idStr":"3586416322315154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>🚀🚀🚀🚀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTE\">$Gran Tierra(GTE)$</a>🚀🚀🚀🚀","text":"$Gran Tierra(GTE)$🚀🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128120754","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}