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Radedward
2021-07-23
Probably not looking good now but they seem to be preparing for the future.
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Radedward
2021-07-19
There’s no accoubting for taste.
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Radedward
2021-07-18
Keyword is “for now”.
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Radedward
2021-07-18
Immigration may be the solution but there will be a backlash given how US is now.
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Radedward
2021-07-15
Must be really optimistic that one movie can savethe company.
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Radedward
2021-07-03
At least they’re transparent about it. Or at least as transparent as they can get.
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Radedward
2021-07-01
And then it went down. Short term reporting really doesn’t say anything much.
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Radedward
2021-06-30
5% is nothing in the grand scheme of things.
Stocks look way overdue for at least a 5% pullback, based on history
Radedward
2021-06-30
Stonks?
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Radedward
2021-06-25
At face value, Amazon seems more diverse in its business and AWS has bigger potential than anything Apple has but Apple has things working in the background now like AR and EV(?).
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Radedward
2021-06-24
It’s fine when banks do it but suspicious when reddit groups try?
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Radedward
2021-06-24
Pity wealth distribution has to be this way, relyingon the good intentions of billionaires. Still, better than nothing, I suppose.
Warren Buffett gives away another $4.1 billion, resigns as trustee at Gates Foundation
Radedward
2021-06-24
To support SEA or not… i guess can dip into it a little.
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Radedward
2021-06-23
Would like to see Dis go lower rather than a split
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Radedward
2021-06-22
Disney has real potential with streaming. Next 10 years of MCU still looking good with phase 4.
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Radedward
2021-06-22
Still too much capital going around and nowhere to spend it.
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Radedward
2021-06-21
Fair value sounds about right.
Apple: Winter Is Coming
Radedward
2021-06-19
FB might be tricky since Apple announced their new tracking restrictions. Must see how FB gets around that for growing their ad revenue.
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Radedward
2021-06-17
Still possibly worthwhile?
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去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","listText":"Keyword is “for now”. ","text":"Keyword is “for now”.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179759926","repostId":"2152811496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179750527,"gmtCreate":1626579584369,"gmtModify":1631891133173,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Immigration may be the solution but there will be a backlash given how US is now. ","listText":"Immigration may be the solution but there will be a backlash given how US is now. ","text":"Immigration may be the solution but there will be a backlash given how US is now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179750527","repostId":"2152568149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144211809,"gmtCreate":1626299795201,"gmtModify":1631883982661,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Must be really optimistic that one movie can savethe company.","listText":"Must be really optimistic that one movie can savethe company.","text":"Must be really optimistic that one movie can savethe company.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144211809","repostId":"2151142915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152136995,"gmtCreate":1625274906917,"gmtModify":1631891133174,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At least they’re transparent about it. Or at least as transparent as they can get.","listText":"At least they’re transparent about it. Or at least as transparent as they can get.","text":"At least they’re transparent about it. Or at least as transparent as they can get.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152136995","repostId":"1196840875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151659178,"gmtCreate":1625089912494,"gmtModify":1631891133179,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"And then it went down. Short term reporting really doesn’t say anything much.","listText":"And then it went down. Short term reporting really doesn’t say anything much.","text":"And then it went down. Short term reporting really doesn’t say anything much.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151659178","repostId":"1123487269","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153501476,"gmtCreate":1625031049295,"gmtModify":1631891133181,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5% is nothing in the grand scheme of things. ","listText":"5% is nothing in the grand scheme of things. ","text":"5% is nothing in the grand scheme of things.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153501476","repostId":"1174683579","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174683579","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624979875,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174683579?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks look way overdue for at least a 5% pullback, based on history","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174683579","media":"CNBC","summary":"While the backdrop for stocks is quite bullish, if history is any gauge, the market is overdue for a","content":"<div>\n<p>While the backdrop for stocks is quite bullish, if history is any gauge, the market is overdue for a pullback, according to CFRA.\nThe economy continues to rebound from the pandemic, the Federal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/stocks-look-way-overdue-for-at-least-a-5percent-pullback-based-on-history.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks look way overdue for at least a 5% pullback, based on history</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks look way overdue for at least a 5% pullback, based on history\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 23:17 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/stocks-look-way-overdue-for-at-least-a-5percent-pullback-based-on-history.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While the backdrop for stocks is quite bullish, if history is any gauge, the market is overdue for a pullback, according to CFRA.\nThe economy continues to rebound from the pandemic, the Federal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/stocks-look-way-overdue-for-at-least-a-5percent-pullback-based-on-history.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/stocks-look-way-overdue-for-at-least-a-5percent-pullback-based-on-history.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1174683579","content_text":"While the backdrop for stocks is quite bullish, if history is any gauge, the market is overdue for a pullback, according to CFRA.\nThe economy continues to rebound from the pandemic, the Federal Reserve is sticking with its easy policies, interest rates are remaining low and investors appear to be dismissing inflation as a threat. The S&P 500 is closing out the first half of the year with a 14% gain.\nHowever, based on historical data from CFRA, the current market backdrop appears ripe for a pullback.\n“History says, but does not guarantee, that even though CFRA projects the S&P 500 to climb toward 4,444 by year-end, the S&P 500 is overdue for a decline in excess of 5%,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.\n\nAs of June 25, the S&P 500 has gone 275 calendar days since its last decline of 5% or more, which took place before the election in September when the 500-stock index lost nearly 10%.\nCFRA notes that since 1945, there have been 60 pullbacks (decline of 5%-9.9%), 23 corrections (declines of 10%-19.9%) and 13 bear markets (declines of 20% or more). The average timespan between these declines is 178 calendar days, making the current stretch the 19th longest since WWII.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153249689,"gmtCreate":1625029662841,"gmtModify":1631891133184,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stonks?","listText":"Stonks?","text":"Stonks?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153249689","repostId":"2147585034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126420146,"gmtCreate":1624582165085,"gmtModify":1631891133187,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At face value, Amazon seems more diverse in its business and AWS has bigger potential than anything Apple has but Apple has things working in the background now like AR and EV(?).","listText":"At face value, Amazon seems more diverse in its business and AWS has bigger potential than anything Apple has but Apple has things working in the background now like AR and EV(?).","text":"At face value, Amazon seems more diverse in its business and AWS has bigger potential than anything Apple has but Apple has things working in the background now like AR and EV(?).","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126420146","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121751950,"gmtCreate":1624493433670,"gmtModify":1631891133192,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It’s fine when banks do it but suspicious when reddit groups try?","listText":"It’s fine when banks do it but suspicious when reddit groups try?","text":"It’s fine when banks do it but suspicious when reddit groups try?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121751950","repostId":"1159107044","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121727571,"gmtCreate":1624493324193,"gmtModify":1634005409977,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pity wealth distribution has to be this way, relyingon the good intentions of billionaires. Still, better than nothing, I suppose.","listText":"Pity wealth distribution has to be this way, relyingon the good intentions of billionaires. Still, better than nothing, I suppose.","text":"Pity wealth distribution has to be this way, relyingon the good intentions of billionaires. Still, better than nothing, I suppose.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121727571","repostId":"1124226438","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124226438","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624491633,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124226438?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett gives away another $4.1 billion, resigns as trustee at Gates Foundation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124226438","media":"CNBC","summary":"Warren Buffett said Wednesday he will donate $4.1 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares to five","content":"<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett said Wednesday he will donate $4.1 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares to five foundations, and that he will resign as the trustee at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.\nThis ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/23/warren-buffett-gives-away-another-4point1-billion-resigns-as-trustee-at-gates-foundation.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett gives away another $4.1 billion, resigns as trustee at Gates Foundation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett gives away another $4.1 billion, resigns as trustee at Gates Foundation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 07:40 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/23/warren-buffett-gives-away-another-4point1-billion-resigns-as-trustee-at-gates-foundation.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett said Wednesday he will donate $4.1 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares to five foundations, and that he will resign as the trustee at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.\nThis ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/23/warren-buffett-gives-away-another-4point1-billion-resigns-as-trustee-at-gates-foundation.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/23/warren-buffett-gives-away-another-4point1-billion-resigns-as-trustee-at-gates-foundation.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1124226438","content_text":"Warren Buffett said Wednesday he will donate $4.1 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares to five foundations, and that he will resign as the trustee at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.\nThis year’s donation marked the halfway point for the 90-year-old Oracle of Omaha, who in 2006 pledged to give away all of his Berkshire shares through annual gifts to Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, Sherwood Foundation, Howard G. Buffett Foundation and NoVo Foundation. Back then, Buffett owned 474,998 Berkshire A shares. Today, he said he owns 238,624 shares, worth about $100 billion.\n“Today is a milestone for me,” Buffett said in a statement. “In 2006, I pledged to distribute all of my Berkshire Hathaway shares — more than 99% of my net worth — to philanthropy. With today’s $4.1 billion distribution, I’m halfway there.”\nBuffett’s resignation as Gates Foundation trustee comes as the charitable organization faces a tumultuous time with the divorce of its two founders.\n“For years I have been a trustee — an inactive trustee at that — of only one recipient of my funds, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMG). I am now resigning from that post, just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire’s,” Buffett said. “The CEO of BMG is Mark Suzman, an outstanding recent selection who has my full support. My goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation, and my physical participation is in no way needed to achieve these goals.”\nBill Gates, co-founder and former CEO of Microsoft, and his wife, Melinda French Gates,announced their divorce in May.The couple along with Buffett were creators of the Giving Pledge, a program that requires participants to give away more than half of their wealth.\nBuffett said his 16 annual contributions to the five foundations over the years were worth $41 billion when disbursed. Buffett is Berkshire’s largest shareholder, owning about 39% of the Class A shares, according to FactSet.\nBerkshire A shares have rebounded more than 20% to hit a record high in 2021 as many of the conglomerate’s business recovered better than expected from the pandemic hit.\n“I’m optimistic. Though naysayers abound — as they have throughout my life — America’s best days most certainly lie ahead,” Buffett said. “Philanthropy will continue to pair human talent with financial resources. So, too, will business and government. Each force has its particular strengths and weaknesses. Combined, they will make the world a better place — a much better place — for future generations.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121729024,"gmtCreate":1624493072068,"gmtModify":1634005417882,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To support SEA or not… i guess can dip into it a little.","listText":"To support SEA or not… i guess can dip into it a little.","text":"To support SEA or not… i guess can dip into it a little.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121729024","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123984267,"gmtCreate":1624406742059,"gmtModify":1634006677752,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Would like to see Dis go lower rather than a split","listText":"Would like to see Dis go lower rather than a split","text":"Would like to see Dis go lower rather than a split","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123984267","repostId":"1186919064","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120415719,"gmtCreate":1624332009931,"gmtModify":1631885074648,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Disney has real potential with streaming. Next 10 years of MCU still looking good with phase 4.","listText":"Disney has real potential with streaming. Next 10 years of MCU still looking good with phase 4.","text":"Disney has real potential with streaming. Next 10 years of MCU still looking good with phase 4.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120415719","repostId":"2145703861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120419299,"gmtCreate":1624331546711,"gmtModify":1634007652034,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still too much capital going around and nowhere to spend it. ","listText":"Still too much capital going around and nowhere to spend it. ","text":"Still too much capital going around and nowhere to spend it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120419299","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167204857,"gmtCreate":1624268469679,"gmtModify":1634008656036,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fair value sounds about right. ","listText":"Fair value sounds about right. ","text":"Fair value sounds about right.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167204857","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162814761,"gmtCreate":1624056328653,"gmtModify":1634023562823,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FB might be tricky since Apple announced their new tracking restrictions. Must see how FB gets around that for growing their ad revenue. ","listText":"FB might be tricky since Apple announced their new tracking restrictions. Must see how FB gets around that for growing their ad revenue. ","text":"FB might be tricky since Apple announced their new tracking restrictions. Must see how FB gets around that for growing their ad revenue.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162814761","repostId":"2144775875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161697721,"gmtCreate":1623921169363,"gmtModify":1634025854574,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586585894056979","idStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still possibly worthwhile?","listText":"Still possibly worthwhile?","text":"Still possibly worthwhile?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161697721","repostId":"1120611286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":179750527,"gmtCreate":1626579584369,"gmtModify":1631891133173,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Immigration may be the solution but there will be a backlash given how US is now. ","listText":"Immigration may be the solution but there will be a backlash given how US is now. ","text":"Immigration may be the solution but there will be a backlash given how US is now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179750527","repostId":"2152568149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179759926,"gmtCreate":1626579626065,"gmtModify":1631891133169,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keyword is “for now”. ","listText":"Keyword is “for now”. ","text":"Keyword is “for now”.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179759926","repostId":"2152811496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152136995,"gmtCreate":1625274906917,"gmtModify":1631891133174,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At least they’re transparent about it. Or at least as transparent as they can get.","listText":"At least they’re transparent about it. Or at least as transparent as they can get.","text":"At least they’re transparent about it. Or at least as transparent as they can get.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152136995","repostId":"1196840875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175945236,"gmtCreate":1627004443425,"gmtModify":1631891133163,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Probably not looking good now but they seem to be preparing for the future.","listText":"Probably not looking good now but they seem to be preparing for the future.","text":"Probably not looking good now but they seem to be preparing for the future.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175945236","repostId":"2153670096","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121727571,"gmtCreate":1624493324193,"gmtModify":1634005409977,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pity wealth distribution has to be this way, relyingon the good intentions of billionaires. Still, better than nothing, I suppose.","listText":"Pity wealth distribution has to be this way, relyingon the good intentions of billionaires. Still, better than nothing, I suppose.","text":"Pity wealth distribution has to be this way, relyingon the good intentions of billionaires. Still, better than nothing, I suppose.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121727571","repostId":"1124226438","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124226438","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624491633,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124226438?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett gives away another $4.1 billion, resigns as trustee at Gates Foundation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124226438","media":"CNBC","summary":"Warren Buffett said Wednesday he will donate $4.1 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares to five","content":"<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett said Wednesday he will donate $4.1 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares to five foundations, and that he will resign as the trustee at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.\nThis ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/23/warren-buffett-gives-away-another-4point1-billion-resigns-as-trustee-at-gates-foundation.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett gives away another $4.1 billion, resigns as trustee at Gates Foundation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett gives away another $4.1 billion, resigns as trustee at Gates Foundation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 07:40 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/23/warren-buffett-gives-away-another-4point1-billion-resigns-as-trustee-at-gates-foundation.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett said Wednesday he will donate $4.1 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares to five foundations, and that he will resign as the trustee at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.\nThis ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/23/warren-buffett-gives-away-another-4point1-billion-resigns-as-trustee-at-gates-foundation.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/23/warren-buffett-gives-away-another-4point1-billion-resigns-as-trustee-at-gates-foundation.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1124226438","content_text":"Warren Buffett said Wednesday he will donate $4.1 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares to five foundations, and that he will resign as the trustee at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.\nThis year’s donation marked the halfway point for the 90-year-old Oracle of Omaha, who in 2006 pledged to give away all of his Berkshire shares through annual gifts to Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, Sherwood Foundation, Howard G. Buffett Foundation and NoVo Foundation. Back then, Buffett owned 474,998 Berkshire A shares. Today, he said he owns 238,624 shares, worth about $100 billion.\n“Today is a milestone for me,” Buffett said in a statement. “In 2006, I pledged to distribute all of my Berkshire Hathaway shares — more than 99% of my net worth — to philanthropy. With today’s $4.1 billion distribution, I’m halfway there.”\nBuffett’s resignation as Gates Foundation trustee comes as the charitable organization faces a tumultuous time with the divorce of its two founders.\n“For years I have been a trustee — an inactive trustee at that — of only one recipient of my funds, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMG). I am now resigning from that post, just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire’s,” Buffett said. “The CEO of BMG is Mark Suzman, an outstanding recent selection who has my full support. My goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation, and my physical participation is in no way needed to achieve these goals.”\nBill Gates, co-founder and former CEO of Microsoft, and his wife, Melinda French Gates,announced their divorce in May.The couple along with Buffett were creators of the Giving Pledge, a program that requires participants to give away more than half of their wealth.\nBuffett said his 16 annual contributions to the five foundations over the years were worth $41 billion when disbursed. Buffett is Berkshire’s largest shareholder, owning about 39% of the Class A shares, according to FactSet.\nBerkshire A shares have rebounded more than 20% to hit a record high in 2021 as many of the conglomerate’s business recovered better than expected from the pandemic hit.\n“I’m optimistic. Though naysayers abound — as they have throughout my life — America’s best days most certainly lie ahead,” Buffett said. “Philanthropy will continue to pair human talent with financial resources. So, too, will business and government. Each force has its particular strengths and weaknesses. Combined, they will make the world a better place — a much better place — for future generations.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126420146,"gmtCreate":1624582165085,"gmtModify":1631891133187,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At face value, Amazon seems more diverse in its business and AWS has bigger potential than anything Apple has but Apple has things working in the background now like AR and EV(?).","listText":"At face value, Amazon seems more diverse in its business and AWS has bigger potential than anything Apple has but Apple has things working in the background now like AR and EV(?).","text":"At face value, Amazon seems more diverse in its business and AWS has bigger potential than anything Apple has but Apple has things working in the background now like AR and EV(?).","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126420146","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120415719,"gmtCreate":1624332009931,"gmtModify":1631885074648,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Disney has real potential with streaming. Next 10 years of MCU still looking good with phase 4.","listText":"Disney has real potential with streaming. Next 10 years of MCU still looking good with phase 4.","text":"Disney has real potential with streaming. Next 10 years of MCU still looking good with phase 4.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120415719","repostId":"2145703861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151659178,"gmtCreate":1625089912494,"gmtModify":1631891133179,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"And then it went down. Short term reporting really doesn’t say anything much.","listText":"And then it went down. Short term reporting really doesn’t say anything much.","text":"And then it went down. Short term reporting really doesn’t say anything much.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151659178","repostId":"1123487269","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173878623,"gmtCreate":1626655339762,"gmtModify":1631891133165,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"There’s no accoubting for taste.","listText":"There’s no accoubting for taste.","text":"There’s no accoubting for taste.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173878623","repostId":"2152687110","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144211809,"gmtCreate":1626299795201,"gmtModify":1631883982661,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Must be really optimistic that one movie can savethe company.","listText":"Must be really optimistic that one movie can savethe company.","text":"Must be really optimistic that one movie can savethe company.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144211809","repostId":"2151142915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121751950,"gmtCreate":1624493433670,"gmtModify":1631891133192,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It’s fine when banks do it but suspicious when reddit groups try?","listText":"It’s fine when banks do it but suspicious when reddit groups try?","text":"It’s fine when banks do it but suspicious when reddit groups try?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121751950","repostId":"1159107044","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167204857,"gmtCreate":1624268469679,"gmtModify":1634008656036,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fair value sounds about right. ","listText":"Fair value sounds about right. ","text":"Fair value sounds about right.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167204857","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153249689,"gmtCreate":1625029662841,"gmtModify":1631891133184,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stonks?","listText":"Stonks?","text":"Stonks?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153249689","repostId":"2147585034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121729024,"gmtCreate":1624493072068,"gmtModify":1634005417882,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To support SEA or not… i guess can dip into it a little.","listText":"To support SEA or not… i guess can dip into it a little.","text":"To support SEA or not… i guess can dip into it a little.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121729024","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123984267,"gmtCreate":1624406742059,"gmtModify":1634006677752,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Would like to see Dis go lower rather than a split","listText":"Would like to see Dis go lower rather than a split","text":"Would like to see Dis go lower rather than a split","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123984267","repostId":"1186919064","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120419299,"gmtCreate":1624331546711,"gmtModify":1634007652034,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still too much capital going around and nowhere to spend it. ","listText":"Still too much capital going around and nowhere to spend it. ","text":"Still too much capital going around and nowhere to spend it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120419299","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153501476,"gmtCreate":1625031049295,"gmtModify":1631891133181,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5% is nothing in the grand scheme of things. ","listText":"5% is nothing in the grand scheme of things. ","text":"5% is nothing in the grand scheme of things.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153501476","repostId":"1174683579","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174683579","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624979875,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174683579?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks look way overdue for at least a 5% pullback, based on history","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174683579","media":"CNBC","summary":"While the backdrop for stocks is quite bullish, if history is any gauge, the market is overdue for a","content":"<div>\n<p>While the backdrop for stocks is quite bullish, if history is any gauge, the market is overdue for a pullback, according to CFRA.\nThe economy continues to rebound from the pandemic, the Federal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/stocks-look-way-overdue-for-at-least-a-5percent-pullback-based-on-history.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks look way overdue for at least a 5% pullback, based on history</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks look way overdue for at least a 5% pullback, based on history\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 23:17 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/stocks-look-way-overdue-for-at-least-a-5percent-pullback-based-on-history.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While the backdrop for stocks is quite bullish, if history is any gauge, the market is overdue for a pullback, according to CFRA.\nThe economy continues to rebound from the pandemic, the Federal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/stocks-look-way-overdue-for-at-least-a-5percent-pullback-based-on-history.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/stocks-look-way-overdue-for-at-least-a-5percent-pullback-based-on-history.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1174683579","content_text":"While the backdrop for stocks is quite bullish, if history is any gauge, the market is overdue for a pullback, according to CFRA.\nThe economy continues to rebound from the pandemic, the Federal Reserve is sticking with its easy policies, interest rates are remaining low and investors appear to be dismissing inflation as a threat. The S&P 500 is closing out the first half of the year with a 14% gain.\nHowever, based on historical data from CFRA, the current market backdrop appears ripe for a pullback.\n“History says, but does not guarantee, that even though CFRA projects the S&P 500 to climb toward 4,444 by year-end, the S&P 500 is overdue for a decline in excess of 5%,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.\n\nAs of June 25, the S&P 500 has gone 275 calendar days since its last decline of 5% or more, which took place before the election in September when the 500-stock index lost nearly 10%.\nCFRA notes that since 1945, there have been 60 pullbacks (decline of 5%-9.9%), 23 corrections (declines of 10%-19.9%) and 13 bear markets (declines of 20% or more). The average timespan between these declines is 178 calendar days, making the current stretch the 19th longest since WWII.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162814761,"gmtCreate":1624056328653,"gmtModify":1634023562823,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FB might be tricky since Apple announced their new tracking restrictions. Must see how FB gets around that for growing their ad revenue. ","listText":"FB might be tricky since Apple announced their new tracking restrictions. Must see how FB gets around that for growing their ad revenue. ","text":"FB might be tricky since Apple announced their new tracking restrictions. Must see how FB gets around that for growing their ad revenue.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162814761","repostId":"2144775875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161697721,"gmtCreate":1623921169363,"gmtModify":1634025854574,"author":{"id":"3586585894056979","authorId":"3586585894056979","name":"Radedward","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0517067d18531fa857b594c9650d99","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586585894056979","authorIdStr":"3586585894056979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still possibly worthwhile?","listText":"Still possibly worthwhile?","text":"Still possibly worthwhile?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161697721","repostId":"1120611286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}