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2021-06-24

EVs are the future! But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet

S&P 500 rises to retake record at the open, wiping out last week’s Fed swoon

2021-06-24

Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!

ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential

2021-06-24

Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.

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2021-06-24

Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time

DoorDash Stock Is Priced for Perfection Here, but Watch for Dips

2021-06-24

Lol

Tesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.

2021-06-24

Wow

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2021-06-24

Billionaire problems lol

Warren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board

2021-06-24

Nice

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2021-06-24

BTC is pure speculation, always hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did

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2021-06-24

Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its strong management

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2021-06-24

Let's go NIO!

Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla

2021-06-24

Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!

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2021-06-22

60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations

Nvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now

2021-06-22

What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon

Retail investor stock buying boom of 2021 is just getting started: Goldman Sachs

2021-06-21

Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance

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2021-06-21

Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!

Apple: Winter Is Coming

2021-06-21

No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment

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2021-06-19

Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips

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2021-06-19

Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share

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2021-06-19

Interesting

Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.

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But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet&nbsp;","listText":"EVs are the future! But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet&nbsp;","text":"EVs are the future! 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The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.</p>\n<p>A broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.</p>\n<p>Data out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.</p>\n<p>Traders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%</p>\n<p>Bank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. 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The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.</p>\n<p>A broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.</p>\n<p>Data out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.</p>\n<p>Traders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%</p>\n<p>Bank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. The test examines how banks fare during various hypothetical economic downturns. Banks were forced to freeze dividends and stop buybacks during the pandemic. These results should give them the greenlight to eventually raise payouts. Goldman Sachs shares rose about 1%.</p>\n<p>Despite Wednesday's hiccup, the three major indexes are up more than 1% this week, rallying from a sell-off last week after the Fed heightened inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as soon as 2023. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a Congressional testimony Tuesdayreiterated that inflation pressures should be temporary, which seemed to soothe market sentiment.</p>\n<p>\"Beneath the optimism, markets are at risk of becoming complacent – and vulnerable to shocks. Any signal that interest rates and bond yields could rise, even in the absence of pronounced inflationary pressure, could shatter market exuberance,\" Gaurav Mallik,&nbsp;chief portfolio strategist&nbsp;at&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;Global Advisors, said.</p>\n<p>\"Central banks will walk a tightrope between allowing the economy to run hot – which history has shown to be a bad idea – and managing inflation risk,\" he added.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167326019","content_text":"(June 24) The S&P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market fully recovered losses triggered by the Federal Reserve’s surprise policy pivot.\nThe broad equity benchmark rose 0.5% to hit an all-time high, retaking its previous record on June 14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.\nA broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.\nData out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.\nTraders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%\nBank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. The test examines how banks fare during various hypothetical economic downturns. Banks were forced to freeze dividends and stop buybacks during the pandemic. These results should give them the greenlight to eventually raise payouts. Goldman Sachs shares rose about 1%.\nDespite Wednesday's hiccup, the three major indexes are up more than 1% this week, rallying from a sell-off last week after the Fed heightened inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as soon as 2023. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a Congressional testimony Tuesdayreiterated that inflation pressures should be temporary, which seemed to soothe market sentiment.\n\"Beneath the optimism, markets are at risk of becoming complacent – and vulnerable to shocks. Any signal that interest rates and bond yields could rise, even in the absence of pronounced inflationary pressure, could shatter market exuberance,\" Gaurav Mallik, chief portfolio strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said.\n\"Central banks will walk a tightrope between allowing the economy to run hot – which history has shown to be a bad idea – and managing inflation risk,\" he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126189681,"gmtCreate":1624547509443,"gmtModify":1631891181171,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!&nbsp;","listText":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!&nbsp;","text":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126189681","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121587593,"gmtCreate":1624478026212,"gmtModify":1631891181174,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.&nbsp;","listText":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.&nbsp;","text":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121587593","repostId":"1115637073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585287,"gmtCreate":1624477279549,"gmtModify":1631891181179,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","listText":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","text":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121585287","repostId":"1143023261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143023261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624441129,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143023261?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 17:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"DoorDash Stock Is Priced for Perfection Here, but Watch for Dips","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143023261","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n\nOn Dec. 9, 2020,","content":"<blockquote>\n DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n</blockquote>\n<p>On Dec. 9, 2020,<b>DoorDash</b>(NYSE:<b><u>DASH</u></b>) stock started trading on the New York Stock Exchange and closed up more than 85% in its debut, giving the company a market valuation of approximately $60.2 billion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d3df1e0ebde0067eb12e622ca5a177\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com</p>\n<p>Year-to-date, DASH stock is up 13.1%, trading at more reasonable price multiples than February highs.</p>\n<p>However, the stock is still trading at 14.6x price-to-sales. In comparison,<b>Grubhub</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GRUB</u></b>) trades at 0.8x and<b>Uber</b>(NYSE:<b><u>UBER</u></b>) at 8.1x.</p>\n<p>DoorDash’s current market price is too high for several reasons. The delivery market is very competitive, and the company was loss-making last year and is only expected to barely break even this year on an adjusted basis.</p>\n<p>For all these reasons and more, it is better to let DASH stock lose steam. At a discount, shares of the online food ordering and food delivery platform can be worth a small position in your portfolio. But not at current rates.</p>\n<p><b>DASH Stock: A Classic Pandemic Play</b></p>\n<p>DoorDash revenues tripled last year, but its performance during last year’s crisis is not astounding.</p>\n<p>People increasingly opted for food delivery services as they sheltered at home through the novel coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>However, now that the economy is whirring back and people returning to sit-down restaurants, DoorDash’s prospects are less bright.</p>\n<p>Interestingly, DoorDash does not think so. In May, the company reported excellent operating results for the first quarter of the year, lifting its guidance for gross order value to between $35 billion and $38 billion from $30 billion to $33 billion previously.</p>\n<p>Whether the company can reach that number will have to be seen. But even with net sales increasing 198% to $1.08 billion, topping expectations of $993.3 million, the operating loss came in at $99 million, marginally improving from $123 million in Q1 2020.</p>\n<p>Chalk it up to a competitive delivery market with few ways to differentiate the major players. There are no switching costs, and customers are just looking for the app that will give them the lowest cost.</p>\n<p>DoorDash does deserve credit, though. It has diversified its revenue stream, which puts it in a different light from its peers.</p>\n<p>The company charges restaurants a commission based on the total dollar order value and also charges a fee to consumers for using its platform.</p>\n<p>More interestingly, though, the company operates DashPass subscription service, which charges per-order fees to merchants that utilize its logistics to service orders under its Drive third party program.</p>\n<p><b>Growth Prospects</b></p>\n<p>Now you might be thinking DoorDash could be the next<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>). In the last five years, TSLA has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 1165% and its sector by 1121%.</p>\n<p>So, clearly, even if a stock looks overvalued, you can end up making a nice return on your investment.</p>\n<p>Sales more than tripled last year to $2.9 billion, and the top line has grown about 200% each year between 2018 and 2020.</p>\n<p>During the same period, growth rates of about 34% for Uber, 85% for Lyft, and 39% for Grubhub were recorded. However, prospectively, things are expected to slow down considerably.</p>\n<p>According to consensus estimates gathered by Refinitiv, the top line of DoorDash is expected to grow by 45.4% and 76.0% in fiscal 2021 and 2022, respectively.</p>\n<p>For Uber, analysts expect top-line growth of 42.20% and 99.3%, and for Grubhub, the 19.50% and 38.70% in fiscal 2021 and 2022.</p>\n<p>DoorDash has innovated and has been quick to spot trends in the fast-growing delivery space, concentrating on suburban markets, for example.</p>\n<p>But as people return to restaurants, demand for delivery will become sluggish, impacting revenues and profits. So, revenue and profitability targets for DoorDash will become hard to achieve.</p>\n<p>In addition, DoorDash’s long-term margin prospects are uncertain, considering it operates in the relatively low margin restaurant business, with its labor cost increasing alongside order volumes.</p>\n<p>When you take all these factors into account, DoorDash’s valuation seems a bit far-fetched, especially when you compare it to Uber, which offers diversified revenue streams at a discount.</p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line on DASH Stock</b></p>\n<p>There is much to like about DoorDash. It has performed excellently during the pandemic, and its asset-light model is not to be taken lightly. However, it operates in a very competitive market with razor-sharp margins.</p>\n<p>On top of it all, the major impetus of its recent success, the pandemic, will become a thing of the past very shortly. Under these circumstances, the valuation is a bit frothy, in my opinion. As a result, DoorDash can become an interesting bet on a correction.</p>\n<p>Until that happens, Uber stock is a better option if you want exposure to this space. That should give you more bang for your buck while you wait for DASH stock to cool down.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DoorDash Stock Is Priced for Perfection Here, but Watch for Dips</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoorDash Stock Is Priced for Perfection Here, but Watch for Dips\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 17:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/dash-stock-is-priced-for-perfection-here-but-watch-for-dips/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n\nOn Dec. 9, 2020,DoorDash(NYSE:DASH) stock started trading on the New York Stock Exchange and closed up more than 85%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/dash-stock-is-priced-for-perfection-here-but-watch-for-dips/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DASH":"DoorDash, Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/dash-stock-is-priced-for-perfection-here-but-watch-for-dips/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143023261","content_text":"DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n\nOn Dec. 9, 2020,DoorDash(NYSE:DASH) stock started trading on the New York Stock Exchange and closed up more than 85% in its debut, giving the company a market valuation of approximately $60.2 billion.\nSource: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com\nYear-to-date, DASH stock is up 13.1%, trading at more reasonable price multiples than February highs.\nHowever, the stock is still trading at 14.6x price-to-sales. In comparison,Grubhub(NYSE:GRUB) trades at 0.8x andUber(NYSE:UBER) at 8.1x.\nDoorDash’s current market price is too high for several reasons. The delivery market is very competitive, and the company was loss-making last year and is only expected to barely break even this year on an adjusted basis.\nFor all these reasons and more, it is better to let DASH stock lose steam. At a discount, shares of the online food ordering and food delivery platform can be worth a small position in your portfolio. But not at current rates.\nDASH Stock: A Classic Pandemic Play\nDoorDash revenues tripled last year, but its performance during last year’s crisis is not astounding.\nPeople increasingly opted for food delivery services as they sheltered at home through the novel coronavirus pandemic.\nHowever, now that the economy is whirring back and people returning to sit-down restaurants, DoorDash’s prospects are less bright.\nInterestingly, DoorDash does not think so. In May, the company reported excellent operating results for the first quarter of the year, lifting its guidance for gross order value to between $35 billion and $38 billion from $30 billion to $33 billion previously.\nWhether the company can reach that number will have to be seen. But even with net sales increasing 198% to $1.08 billion, topping expectations of $993.3 million, the operating loss came in at $99 million, marginally improving from $123 million in Q1 2020.\nChalk it up to a competitive delivery market with few ways to differentiate the major players. There are no switching costs, and customers are just looking for the app that will give them the lowest cost.\nDoorDash does deserve credit, though. It has diversified its revenue stream, which puts it in a different light from its peers.\nThe company charges restaurants a commission based on the total dollar order value and also charges a fee to consumers for using its platform.\nMore interestingly, though, the company operates DashPass subscription service, which charges per-order fees to merchants that utilize its logistics to service orders under its Drive third party program.\nGrowth Prospects\nNow you might be thinking DoorDash could be the nextTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA). In the last five years, TSLA has outperformed the S&P 500 by 1165% and its sector by 1121%.\nSo, clearly, even if a stock looks overvalued, you can end up making a nice return on your investment.\nSales more than tripled last year to $2.9 billion, and the top line has grown about 200% each year between 2018 and 2020.\nDuring the same period, growth rates of about 34% for Uber, 85% for Lyft, and 39% for Grubhub were recorded. However, prospectively, things are expected to slow down considerably.\nAccording to consensus estimates gathered by Refinitiv, the top line of DoorDash is expected to grow by 45.4% and 76.0% in fiscal 2021 and 2022, respectively.\nFor Uber, analysts expect top-line growth of 42.20% and 99.3%, and for Grubhub, the 19.50% and 38.70% in fiscal 2021 and 2022.\nDoorDash has innovated and has been quick to spot trends in the fast-growing delivery space, concentrating on suburban markets, for example.\nBut as people return to restaurants, demand for delivery will become sluggish, impacting revenues and profits. So, revenue and profitability targets for DoorDash will become hard to achieve.\nIn addition, DoorDash’s long-term margin prospects are uncertain, considering it operates in the relatively low margin restaurant business, with its labor cost increasing alongside order volumes.\nWhen you take all these factors into account, DoorDash’s valuation seems a bit far-fetched, especially when you compare it to Uber, which offers diversified revenue streams at a discount.\nThe Bottom Line on DASH Stock\nThere is much to like about DoorDash. It has performed excellently during the pandemic, and its asset-light model is not to be taken lightly. However, it operates in a very competitive market with razor-sharp margins.\nOn top of it all, the major impetus of its recent success, the pandemic, will become a thing of the past very shortly. Under these circumstances, the valuation is a bit frothy, in my opinion. As a result, DoorDash can become an interesting bet on a correction.\nUntil that happens, Uber stock is a better option if you want exposure to this space. That should give you more bang for your buck while you wait for DASH stock to cool down.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DASH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585300,"gmtCreate":1624477142400,"gmtModify":1631891181180,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121585300","repostId":"1179305353","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179305353","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624441813,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179305353?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 17:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179305353","media":"Barron's","summary":"The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recogniz","content":"<p>The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.</p>\n<p>Early on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.</p>\n<p>The drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.</p>\n<p>The accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.</p>\n<p>Tesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.</p>\n<p>The filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.</p>\n<p>If Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.</p>\n<p>Tesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.</p>\n<p>It looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.</p>\n<p>Tesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&amp;P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 17:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179305353","content_text":"The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.\nEarly on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.\nThe drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.\nThe accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.\nTesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.\nThe filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.\nIf Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.\nTesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.\nIt looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.\nTesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585048,"gmtCreate":1624477046984,"gmtModify":1631891181184,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121585048","repostId":"1103650363","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582221,"gmtCreate":1624476936964,"gmtModify":1631891181186,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Billionaire problems lol","listText":"Billionaire problems lol","text":"Billionaire problems lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121582221","repostId":"1115142051","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115142051","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624447827,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115142051?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115142051","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since ","content":"<p>In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has resigned as a trustee of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Buffett's position on the board was a major PR coup for the foundation, which is one of the world's biggest charitable enterprises.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad33e43f59ee4df358ff3db98d9cfd5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\">Buffett, now 90, announced his decision to step down from the Gates Foundation board in a statement that also announced he had reached the halfway point in giving his Berkshire Hathaway shares to charity. Buffett gave away another $4.1 billion in Berkshire shares to give foundations.</p>\n<p>Ina statementshared with CNBC, Buffett said he was resigning from the Gates Foundation board \"just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire's\".</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"For years I have been a trustee – an inactive trustee at that – of only one recipient of my funds, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. I am now resigning from that post, just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire’s,\" Buffett said in a statement. \"The CEO of BMG is Mark Suzman, an outstanding recent selection who has my full support. My goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation, and my physical participation is in no way needed to achieve these goals.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>While it's true that Buffett has slowly been pulling back from his non-Berkshire activities for years now, the timing of his departure from the Gates Foundation board is certainly curious. As Buffett himself concedes, he was an \"inactive\" member of the board. The board includes two other members, Bill and Melinda. Maybe Buffett simply couldn't stomach the awkwardness at board meetings.</p>\n<p>Melinda Gates reportedly divorced her husband over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, something that Buffett has been mum about - though Warren Buffett was never tied to Epstein like many other titans of American business and finance have been.</p>\n<p>Buffett has contributed $27 billion to the Gates Foundation over the past 15 years. Mark Suzman, the foundation’s chief executive officer, told employees last month that he was in talks to strengthen \"the long-term sustainability and stability of the foundation.\"</p>\n<p>Suzman \"is an outstanding recent selection who has my full support,\" Buffett said. Suzman has insisted that both Bill and Melinda remain committed to the Foundation even after their divorce.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 19:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-resigns-gates-foundation-board?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-resigns-gates-foundation-board?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-resigns-gates-foundation-board?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115142051","content_text":"In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has resigned as a trustee of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Buffett's position on the board was a major PR coup for the foundation, which is one of the world's biggest charitable enterprises.\nBuffett, now 90, announced his decision to step down from the Gates Foundation board in a statement that also announced he had reached the halfway point in giving his Berkshire Hathaway shares to charity. Buffett gave away another $4.1 billion in Berkshire shares to give foundations.\nIna statementshared with CNBC, Buffett said he was resigning from the Gates Foundation board \"just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire's\".\n\n \"For years I have been a trustee – an inactive trustee at that – of only one recipient of my funds, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. I am now resigning from that post, just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire’s,\" Buffett said in a statement. \"The CEO of BMG is Mark Suzman, an outstanding recent selection who has my full support. My goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation, and my physical participation is in no way needed to achieve these goals.\"\n\nWhile it's true that Buffett has slowly been pulling back from his non-Berkshire activities for years now, the timing of his departure from the Gates Foundation board is certainly curious. As Buffett himself concedes, he was an \"inactive\" member of the board. The board includes two other members, Bill and Melinda. Maybe Buffett simply couldn't stomach the awkwardness at board meetings.\nMelinda Gates reportedly divorced her husband over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, something that Buffett has been mum about - though Warren Buffett was never tied to Epstein like many other titans of American business and finance have been.\nBuffett has contributed $27 billion to the Gates Foundation over the past 15 years. Mark Suzman, the foundation’s chief executive officer, told employees last month that he was in talks to strengthen \"the long-term sustainability and stability of the foundation.\"\nSuzman \"is an outstanding recent selection who has my full support,\" Buffett said. Suzman has insisted that both Bill and Melinda remain committed to the Foundation even after their divorce.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582805,"gmtCreate":1624476902307,"gmtModify":1631891181188,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121582805","repostId":"1155637149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582050,"gmtCreate":1624476730570,"gmtModify":1631884128136,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BTC is pure speculation, always&nbsp;hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","listText":"BTC is pure speculation, always&nbsp;hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","text":"BTC is pure speculation, always hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121582050","repostId":"1121798334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121586867,"gmtCreate":1624476578159,"gmtModify":1631891181194,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its&nbsp;strong management","listText":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its&nbsp;strong management","text":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its strong management","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121586867","repostId":"2145283099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121586961,"gmtCreate":1624476424653,"gmtModify":1631891181197,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's go NIO!&nbsp;","listText":"Let's go NIO!&nbsp;","text":"Let's go NIO!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121586961","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145825451","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624433586,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145825451?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 15:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145825451","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.Super fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc. model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.Instead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.The go","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Super fans of the latest and greatest high-end<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:<b>TSLA</b>) model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b294a3604c7ba82bd19b3c70be3a4020\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: nrqemi / Shutterstock.com</p>\n<p>Musk wrote there was… “No need, as Plaid is just so good.”</p>\n<p>The Model S Plaid Plus was supposed to be the fastest, most powerful and priciest version of the company’s Model S. Priced at $149,990, it was to feature a range of 520 miles, thanks to its innovative 4680 battery cells, 1,100 horsepower and the ability to speed from 0 to 60 mph in less than two seconds.</p>\n<p>Instead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.</p>\n<p>As a way to “sugar coat” its flip flop, Tesla said the Model S Plaid is just as fast as the Model S Plaid Plus and $20,000 cheaper. Humm.</p>\n<p>This “bait and switch” has some Tesla fans worried, since they had deposits on the Model S Plaid Plus and wanted the innovative 4680 battery cells that Tesla had been touting as the key to longer range and more power. Essentially, the 4680 battery cells were the latest great Tesla development, since they were the first batteries to also be a structural component that supposedly allowed Tesla to lower the weight of its vehicles.</p>\n<p>Both the company’s Austin and Berlin manufacturing plants now under construction are supposed to also be making the 4680 batteries for new Tesla vehicles. If there is a problem with the engineering associated with utilizing the 4680 batteries or making them a structural component, then Tesla has grossly miscalculated, which is now worrying investors.</p>\n<p>Clearly something happened to delay the 4680 batteries that were supposed to provide Tesla with a competitive and engineering edge. For Tesla’s sake, I hope they figure out the problems associated with their much hyped 4680 battery cells, otherwise concerns about its two new manufacturing plants will emerge, as well as the stock losing more of its “mojo.”</p>\n<p>As someone who owns more than a few high-performance vehicles, I can tell you that the engineering geeks I know do<i>not</i>want to get a new Model S Plaid instead of a Model S Plaid Plus and will likely ask for their deposits back.</p>\n<p>What Tesla did is like Ferrari or Porsche telling its customers that one of their much-hyped new performance models is now not being sold because the base model was just as good! Car fanatics, like myself, like the latest and greatest engineering tidbits, so we would rather cancel our orders versus settle for a base model.</p>\n<p>The good news for Tesla is that its China sales in May resurged to 21,936, up sharply from 11,671 in April. The company’s sales tend to spike at the end of each quarter. For example, Tesla sold 35,478 vehicles in China in March, which was the strongest month ever in China.</p>\n<p>This is raising expectations for very strong China sales in June, especially now that the Model Y is being manufactured in Shanghai. Interestingly, since most Chinese Teslas are now made with iron phosphate batteries, these vehicles have lower range than its lithium cobalt vehicles, but its iron phosphate vehicles are cheaper and now increasingly being exported to Europe.</p>\n<p>However, I’m convinced another electric vehicle (EV) company will eventually displace Tesla as the biggest manufacturer of EVs in China.</p>\n<p><b>Taking Advantage of the EV Revolution’s Profit Potential</b></p>\n<p>I’m talking about&nbsp;<b>Nio, Inc.</b>(NYSE:<b>NIO</b>). The reality is that this company is on the verge of dominating the EV market in China and Hong Kong. It’s why I put NIO on my<b><i>Platinum Growth Club</i></b>Model Portfolio back in February.</p>\n<p>The company boasts that it is the “next-generation car company,” as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles that utilize the latest technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI). NIO currently offers an electric seven-seater SUV (ES8) and a five-seater electric SUV (ES6) and recently introduced an attractive electric sedan (ET7). Its vehicles utilize NOMI, an in-vehicle artificial intelligence assistant.</p>\n<p>The company is also partnering with cutting-edge chip companies like<b>NVIDIA Corporation</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NVDA</b>), another one of my<b><i>Platinum Growth Club</i></b>Model Portfolio stocks. NIO plans to use the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip for its electric vehicles that will provide autonomous driving capabilities. The NVIDIA DRIVE Orin-powered supercomputer, which is being called Adam, will be launched in the ET7 sedan in China in 2022. Announcements like this are very positive, so NIO has been stealing some of Tesla’s thunder lately.</p>\n<p>Now, it’s important to note that NIO was bailed out by the Chinese government. Last year, the Chinese government injected $1 billion and now has a 24% ownership in the company. The reality is that China wants to dominate at least five major industries by 2025, and NIO is now its ticket to dominate EV manufacturing.</p>\n<p>With the backing of the Chinese government, some Wall Street firms are eager to help NIO by issuing new debt or equity. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if NIO surpasses Tesla, which is currently number-two in China, for market share in the upcoming years.</p>\n<p>That means, if you missed Tesla’s parabolic run like I did, NIO is essentially giving us a “second chance” to make money in a potentially explosive electric vehicle company.</p>\n<p>Shares of NIO climbed nearly 13% since the company’s June 4 announcement of its May delivery report and positive analyst comments, while Tesla shares rose almost 3%. First, NIO revealed that the global chip shortage is starting to take a toll on its business. NIO only delivered 6,711 vehicles in May, or a 5.5% decline from April’s deliveries. Company management noted that deliveries were “adversely impacted for several days due to the volatility of semiconductor supply and certain logistical adjustments.”</p>\n<p>Interestingly, despite the month-to-month dip, NIO’s deliveries were still up 95.3% year-over-year. Strong demand in China even inspired a Citigroup analyst to upgrade NIO to a buy rating, as he expects demand to accelerate in the coming months.</p>\n<p>In other words, NIO represents the<b>crème de la crème</b>of EV stocks right now.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 15:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.\n\nSuper fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) model received some disappointing news a week ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145825451","content_text":"The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.\n\nSuper fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.\nSource: nrqemi / Shutterstock.com\nMusk wrote there was… “No need, as Plaid is just so good.”\nThe Model S Plaid Plus was supposed to be the fastest, most powerful and priciest version of the company’s Model S. Priced at $149,990, it was to feature a range of 520 miles, thanks to its innovative 4680 battery cells, 1,100 horsepower and the ability to speed from 0 to 60 mph in less than two seconds.\nInstead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.\nAs a way to “sugar coat” its flip flop, Tesla said the Model S Plaid is just as fast as the Model S Plaid Plus and $20,000 cheaper. Humm.\nThis “bait and switch” has some Tesla fans worried, since they had deposits on the Model S Plaid Plus and wanted the innovative 4680 battery cells that Tesla had been touting as the key to longer range and more power. Essentially, the 4680 battery cells were the latest great Tesla development, since they were the first batteries to also be a structural component that supposedly allowed Tesla to lower the weight of its vehicles.\nBoth the company’s Austin and Berlin manufacturing plants now under construction are supposed to also be making the 4680 batteries for new Tesla vehicles. If there is a problem with the engineering associated with utilizing the 4680 batteries or making them a structural component, then Tesla has grossly miscalculated, which is now worrying investors.\nClearly something happened to delay the 4680 batteries that were supposed to provide Tesla with a competitive and engineering edge. For Tesla’s sake, I hope they figure out the problems associated with their much hyped 4680 battery cells, otherwise concerns about its two new manufacturing plants will emerge, as well as the stock losing more of its “mojo.”\nAs someone who owns more than a few high-performance vehicles, I can tell you that the engineering geeks I know donotwant to get a new Model S Plaid instead of a Model S Plaid Plus and will likely ask for their deposits back.\nWhat Tesla did is like Ferrari or Porsche telling its customers that one of their much-hyped new performance models is now not being sold because the base model was just as good! Car fanatics, like myself, like the latest and greatest engineering tidbits, so we would rather cancel our orders versus settle for a base model.\nThe good news for Tesla is that its China sales in May resurged to 21,936, up sharply from 11,671 in April. The company’s sales tend to spike at the end of each quarter. For example, Tesla sold 35,478 vehicles in China in March, which was the strongest month ever in China.\nThis is raising expectations for very strong China sales in June, especially now that the Model Y is being manufactured in Shanghai. Interestingly, since most Chinese Teslas are now made with iron phosphate batteries, these vehicles have lower range than its lithium cobalt vehicles, but its iron phosphate vehicles are cheaper and now increasingly being exported to Europe.\nHowever, I’m convinced another electric vehicle (EV) company will eventually displace Tesla as the biggest manufacturer of EVs in China.\nTaking Advantage of the EV Revolution’s Profit Potential\nI’m talking about Nio, Inc.(NYSE:NIO). The reality is that this company is on the verge of dominating the EV market in China and Hong Kong. It’s why I put NIO on myPlatinum Growth ClubModel Portfolio back in February.\nThe company boasts that it is the “next-generation car company,” as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles that utilize the latest technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI). NIO currently offers an electric seven-seater SUV (ES8) and a five-seater electric SUV (ES6) and recently introduced an attractive electric sedan (ET7). Its vehicles utilize NOMI, an in-vehicle artificial intelligence assistant.\nThe company is also partnering with cutting-edge chip companies likeNVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA), another one of myPlatinum Growth ClubModel Portfolio stocks. NIO plans to use the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip for its electric vehicles that will provide autonomous driving capabilities. The NVIDIA DRIVE Orin-powered supercomputer, which is being called Adam, will be launched in the ET7 sedan in China in 2022. Announcements like this are very positive, so NIO has been stealing some of Tesla’s thunder lately.\nNow, it’s important to note that NIO was bailed out by the Chinese government. Last year, the Chinese government injected $1 billion and now has a 24% ownership in the company. The reality is that China wants to dominate at least five major industries by 2025, and NIO is now its ticket to dominate EV manufacturing.\nWith the backing of the Chinese government, some Wall Street firms are eager to help NIO by issuing new debt or equity. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if NIO surpasses Tesla, which is currently number-two in China, for market share in the upcoming years.\nThat means, if you missed Tesla’s parabolic run like I did, NIO is essentially giving us a “second chance” to make money in a potentially explosive electric vehicle company.\nShares of NIO climbed nearly 13% since the company’s June 4 announcement of its May delivery report and positive analyst comments, while Tesla shares rose almost 3%. First, NIO revealed that the global chip shortage is starting to take a toll on its business. NIO only delivered 6,711 vehicles in May, or a 5.5% decline from April’s deliveries. Company management noted that deliveries were “adversely impacted for several days due to the volatility of semiconductor supply and certain logistical adjustments.”\nInterestingly, despite the month-to-month dip, NIO’s deliveries were still up 95.3% year-over-year. Strong demand in China even inspired a Citigroup analyst to upgrade NIO to a buy rating, as he expects demand to accelerate in the coming months.\nIn other words, NIO represents thecrème de la crèmeof EV stocks right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121504310,"gmtCreate":1624469965430,"gmtModify":1631891181200,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!&nbsp;","listText":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!&nbsp;","text":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121504310","repostId":"1188931868","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120936670,"gmtCreate":1624291474390,"gmtModify":1631892380703,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","listText":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","text":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120936670","repostId":"1181010712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181010712","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624278315,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181010712?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 20:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181010712","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:","content":"<blockquote>\n NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Today’s write-up about<b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NVDA</u></b>) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and the comments here are all about timing.</p>\n<p>Investors have different timelines, so there isn’t one entry point or decision to fit everyone the same.</p>\n<p>My beef with it now is that the stock has been so relentless for too long. The easy bullish setup is over, and this week’s burst sealed the deal.<b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AMD</u></b>) stock price range makes more sense.</p>\n<p>Today I am calling for a bit of self-control. Investors that are not yet long NVDA stock should know that they missed the easy trade. The hard part is to be patient for re-entry lower.</p>\n<p>This doesn’t mean that I can short it, but I must temper my enthusiasm for new positions. I completely understand long-term investors not caring so much about timing. If that’s the case then waiting a few more ticks shouldn’t matter either. My main concern is first to avoid potentially bad entries. An incline as steep as this one qualifies as a potential trap.</p>\n<p>When great stocks spike their relative valuation changes with extreme altitudes. Currently, Nvidia management placed itself in a leading role among the top three chip manufacturers. AMD comes in a close second and<b>Intel</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>INTC</u></b>) is dragging third. This affords NVDA stock a premium but the differential has grown way too big.</p>\n<p><b>Relative Value to AMD Makes NVDA Expensive</b></p>\n<p>When I say expensive, I don’t mean that I want it to be cheap. This is a growth company so value is not what I seek. However, NVDA now has a hefty 60 price-to-sales ratio, three times&nbsp;more expensive than AMD, and they are both delivering the same growth.</p>\n<p>If you force me to chose which to buy, I would opt for AMD for that reason. The easiest way to say it is that this is not an obvious point of entry in NVDA stock.</p>\n<p>There is also risk from the overall market. The indices are still breaking records but largely thanks to artificial infusions from the government. The Federal Reserve has had the spigots open full-bore for years. This week they hinted at the possibility of winding it down.</p>\n<p>When that happens it will leave a void worth $1.4 trillion a year from asset purchases. The White House stimuli that are three times bigger are also winding down.</p>\n<p>The reflation efforts have goosed the stock market and created hyperinflation situations. I use this “hyperinflation” term on purpose because itrecently made headlines on CNBC. I’m not from Wall Street, yet my measurement of inflation is certainly more accurate than the CPI they publish.</p>\n<p>I know the carton of milk I buy at Costco is 50% more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Almost everything now has never been more expensive. Houses, cars and even food. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called it “transitory” and I’d like to see what would unwind it lower.</p>\n<p>Circling back to NVDA it is definitely a BUY in my book but on dips. It broke out from $650 per share. Arguably this even started $50 lower, but the target is closer to $800 per share.</p>\n<p>Investors who have missed the entry here should set their alerts to buy the dip when it happens. I am confident that this year we will have that chance. A general correction of equities will drag down the good stocks too. Those that have rallied this far have the most to give back.</p>\n<p><b>There Are Better Levels for NVDA Stock Buys</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd18b9d27a6de0abcf734e0f652d6e3\" tg-width=\"1543\" tg-height=\"826\">After a breakout, stock prices often revisit the necklines. For NVDA that’s at or below $625 per share. There should be very strong support waiting for it there.</p>\n<p>The stock has consolidated in a very wide range since last September. Those who want to short the stock now should book profits quickly. I don’t see a scenario where this stock completely falls apart alone. If the market crashes massively, then the gift of the century would be to by it below $480.</p>\n<p>If I can’t wait that long then I can do it now with options. Instead of buying shares I can sell the NVDA December $480 put and collect $8 per contract. This means that the stock can fall 35% and I can still profit.</p>\n<p>Committing to owning shares that much lower is safer than risking $746 per share right here. Regardless of the method, investors should only take partial positions so they can manage the risk over time.</p>\n<p>I will end this how I started by saying that I am a fan of the company. But I don’t like chasing it at these altitudes even if I miss some upside. Patience will reward investors in the long run.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 20:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181010712","content_text":"NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and the comments here are all about timing.\nInvestors have different timelines, so there isn’t one entry point or decision to fit everyone the same.\nMy beef with it now is that the stock has been so relentless for too long. The easy bullish setup is over, and this week’s burst sealed the deal.Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) stock price range makes more sense.\nToday I am calling for a bit of self-control. Investors that are not yet long NVDA stock should know that they missed the easy trade. The hard part is to be patient for re-entry lower.\nThis doesn’t mean that I can short it, but I must temper my enthusiasm for new positions. I completely understand long-term investors not caring so much about timing. If that’s the case then waiting a few more ticks shouldn’t matter either. My main concern is first to avoid potentially bad entries. An incline as steep as this one qualifies as a potential trap.\nWhen great stocks spike their relative valuation changes with extreme altitudes. Currently, Nvidia management placed itself in a leading role among the top three chip manufacturers. AMD comes in a close second andIntel(NASDAQ:INTC) is dragging third. This affords NVDA stock a premium but the differential has grown way too big.\nRelative Value to AMD Makes NVDA Expensive\nWhen I say expensive, I don’t mean that I want it to be cheap. This is a growth company so value is not what I seek. However, NVDA now has a hefty 60 price-to-sales ratio, three times more expensive than AMD, and they are both delivering the same growth.\nIf you force me to chose which to buy, I would opt for AMD for that reason. The easiest way to say it is that this is not an obvious point of entry in NVDA stock.\nThere is also risk from the overall market. The indices are still breaking records but largely thanks to artificial infusions from the government. The Federal Reserve has had the spigots open full-bore for years. This week they hinted at the possibility of winding it down.\nWhen that happens it will leave a void worth $1.4 trillion a year from asset purchases. The White House stimuli that are three times bigger are also winding down.\nThe reflation efforts have goosed the stock market and created hyperinflation situations. I use this “hyperinflation” term on purpose because itrecently made headlines on CNBC. I’m not from Wall Street, yet my measurement of inflation is certainly more accurate than the CPI they publish.\nI know the carton of milk I buy at Costco is 50% more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Almost everything now has never been more expensive. Houses, cars and even food. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called it “transitory” and I’d like to see what would unwind it lower.\nCircling back to NVDA it is definitely a BUY in my book but on dips. It broke out from $650 per share. Arguably this even started $50 lower, but the target is closer to $800 per share.\nInvestors who have missed the entry here should set their alerts to buy the dip when it happens. I am confident that this year we will have that chance. A general correction of equities will drag down the good stocks too. Those that have rallied this far have the most to give back.\nThere Are Better Levels for NVDA Stock Buys\nAfter a breakout, stock prices often revisit the necklines. For NVDA that’s at or below $625 per share. There should be very strong support waiting for it there.\nThe stock has consolidated in a very wide range since last September. Those who want to short the stock now should book profits quickly. I don’t see a scenario where this stock completely falls apart alone. If the market crashes massively, then the gift of the century would be to by it below $480.\nIf I can’t wait that long then I can do it now with options. Instead of buying shares I can sell the NVDA December $480 put and collect $8 per contract. This means that the stock can fall 35% and I can still profit.\nCommitting to owning shares that much lower is safer than risking $746 per share right here. Regardless of the method, investors should only take partial positions so they can manage the risk over time.\nI will end this how I started by saying that I am a fan of the company. But I don’t like chasing it at these altitudes even if I miss some upside. Patience will reward investors in the long run.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120997427,"gmtCreate":1624291313169,"gmtModify":1631892380709,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","listText":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","text":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120997427","repostId":"2145084680","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145084680","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624278649,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145084680?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Retail investor stock buying boom of 2021 is just getting started: Goldman Sachs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145084680","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time","content":"<p>If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time volatility in shares of AMC Entertainment, GameStop and Blackberry is only just beginning.</p>\n<p>The investment bank's chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin raised his 2021 estimate on household net equity buying to $400 billion from $350 billion in a new research note to clients. In the first quarter alone, households were the largest source of equity demand with net purchases of $172 billion.</p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the clearest signs of exuberance on the part of retail investors (perhaps too much, Kostin estimates that households currently allocate an outsized 44% of their assets to equities. That is only slightly below the all-time high of 46% seen back at the height of the dot com craze (and subsequent blowup).</p>\n<p>\"High cash balances and continued retail participation in equity markets should bolster household equity demand. The tradeoff households face between equities and other asset classes favors equities through year-end given anemic money market and credit yields. Additionally, any signs of a sustained increase in inflation would favor equities over bonds or cash,\" explains Kostin.</p>\n<p>To be sure, the enlarged appetite to buy stocks among the retail crowd outlined by Goldman is poised to be severely tested in coming weeks.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/104dbda916e034fdd5094bb2a80d2cf1\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Households continue to have a strong appetite for stocks.Goldman Sachs</p>\n<p>Renewed volatility has swept through the markets in the aftermath of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers opened the door to higher interest rates and the start of tapering bond purchases. Both actions are seen as headwinds to stock prices in the months and years ahead.</p>\n<p>The markets didn't appreciate the surprising level of hawkishness from the Fed, and made their views heard.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked more than 533 points on Friday as investors digested fresh hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard two days after the latest Fed meeting. All of the Dow's components finished in the red, led by Chevron, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> and Goldman Sachs.</p>\n<p>Last week's mostly risk-off environment in the markets highlighted a shift in sector ownership that has been underway in recent weeks to little fanfare among pundits. Most of the best-performing sectors over the past month have been defensives and tech, both of which tend to see strong interest amidst heightened market uncertainty.</p>\n<p>Some Wall Street strategists suggest it's time to buckle up as today's market is looking very different than the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> earlier in the year.</p>\n<p>\"Although macro influence over S&amp;P volatility has declined, total macro risk is higher than normal, in part due to the outsized impact of changes in credit spreads on equity volatility. With the yield curve likely to be a major source of debate going forward, expect sector, factor and industry reversals to continue until the economic and policy paths are more certain. That is consistent with a mean reverting backdrop and suggests some caution in chasing short Value/Cyclical trades. Value and Small caps tend to have much stronger than normal returns after sharp and if the recent history of mean reversion is any guide, expect some reversal in July,\" warns EvercoreISI senior managing director Dennis DeBusschere.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Retail investor stock buying boom of 2021 is just getting started: Goldman Sachs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRetail investor stock buying boom of 2021 is just getting started: Goldman Sachs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 20:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-investor-stock-buying-boom-of-2021-is-just-getting-started-goldman-sachs-102449550.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time volatility in shares of AMC Entertainment, GameStop and Blackberry is only just beginning.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-investor-stock-buying-boom-of-2021-is-just-getting-started-goldman-sachs-102449550.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","CVX":"雪佛龙","AMC":"AMC院线","CLNE":"Clean Energy Fuels Corp","GS":"高盛","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-investor-stock-buying-boom-of-2021-is-just-getting-started-goldman-sachs-102449550.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2145084680","content_text":"If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time volatility in shares of AMC Entertainment, GameStop and Blackberry is only just beginning.\nThe investment bank's chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin raised his 2021 estimate on household net equity buying to $400 billion from $350 billion in a new research note to clients. In the first quarter alone, households were the largest source of equity demand with net purchases of $172 billion.\nIn one of the clearest signs of exuberance on the part of retail investors (perhaps too much, Kostin estimates that households currently allocate an outsized 44% of their assets to equities. That is only slightly below the all-time high of 46% seen back at the height of the dot com craze (and subsequent blowup).\n\"High cash balances and continued retail participation in equity markets should bolster household equity demand. The tradeoff households face between equities and other asset classes favors equities through year-end given anemic money market and credit yields. Additionally, any signs of a sustained increase in inflation would favor equities over bonds or cash,\" explains Kostin.\nTo be sure, the enlarged appetite to buy stocks among the retail crowd outlined by Goldman is poised to be severely tested in coming weeks.\nHouseholds continue to have a strong appetite for stocks.Goldman Sachs\nRenewed volatility has swept through the markets in the aftermath of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers opened the door to higher interest rates and the start of tapering bond purchases. Both actions are seen as headwinds to stock prices in the months and years ahead.\nThe markets didn't appreciate the surprising level of hawkishness from the Fed, and made their views heard.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked more than 533 points on Friday as investors digested fresh hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard two days after the latest Fed meeting. All of the Dow's components finished in the red, led by Chevron, Walgreens Boots Alliance and Goldman Sachs.\nLast week's mostly risk-off environment in the markets highlighted a shift in sector ownership that has been underway in recent weeks to little fanfare among pundits. Most of the best-performing sectors over the past month have been defensives and tech, both of which tend to see strong interest amidst heightened market uncertainty.\nSome Wall Street strategists suggest it's time to buckle up as today's market is looking very different than the one earlier in the year.\n\"Although macro influence over S&P volatility has declined, total macro risk is higher than normal, in part due to the outsized impact of changes in credit spreads on equity volatility. With the yield curve likely to be a major source of debate going forward, expect sector, factor and industry reversals to continue until the economic and policy paths are more certain. That is consistent with a mean reverting backdrop and suggests some caution in chasing short Value/Cyclical trades. Value and Small caps tend to have much stronger than normal returns after sharp and if the recent history of mean reversion is any guide, expect some reversal in July,\" warns EvercoreISI senior managing director Dennis DeBusschere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"BB":0.9,"CLNE":0.9,"CVX":0.9,"GME":0.9,"GS":0.9,"WBA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120996124,"gmtCreate":1624291186868,"gmtModify":1631892380735,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","listText":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","text":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120996124","repostId":"1122985599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167751985,"gmtCreate":1624285766947,"gmtModify":1631892380760,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!&nbsp;","listText":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!&nbsp;","text":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167751985","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167729633,"gmtCreate":1624285420322,"gmtModify":1631892380762,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","listText":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","text":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167729633","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165913152,"gmtCreate":1624086181476,"gmtModify":1631884324097,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","listText":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","text":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165913152","repostId":"1154782771","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162346428,"gmtCreate":1624036821364,"gmtModify":1631884324172,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","listText":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","text":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162346428","repostId":"2144077147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162348426,"gmtCreate":1624036748065,"gmtModify":1631892380772,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162348426","repostId":"1119296361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624028454,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119296361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296361","media":"Barrons","summary":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier","content":"<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p>\n<p>There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p>\n<p>After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p>\n<p>The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p>\n<p>Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p>\n<p>Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","MS":"摩根士丹利","WFC":"富国银行","C":"花旗","BAC":"美国银行","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296361","content_text":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.\nAfter Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%\nThe market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.\nWhy the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.\nUntil that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9,"C":0.9,"GS":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"MS":0.9,"WFC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":165913152,"gmtCreate":1624086181476,"gmtModify":1631884324097,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","listText":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","text":"Continuing to look out for Capitaland movements. Hope to buy any dips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165913152","repostId":"1154782771","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126186899,"gmtCreate":1624547625311,"gmtModify":1631883985518,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EVs are the future! But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet&nbsp;","listText":"EVs are the future! But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet&nbsp;","text":"EVs are the future! But don't bet everything on any one horse, it's still a growing industry and the leader of the pack may not be so clear yet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126186899","repostId":"1167326019","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167326019","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624541460,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167326019?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 rises to retake record at the open, wiping out last week’s Fed swoon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167326019","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 24) The S&P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market f","content":"<p>(June 24)&nbsp;The S&amp;P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market fully recovered losses triggered by the Federal Reserve’s surprise policy pivot.</p>\n<p>The broad equity benchmark rose 0.5% to hit an all-time high, retaking its previous record on June 14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.</p>\n<p>A broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.</p>\n<p>Data out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.</p>\n<p>Traders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%</p>\n<p>Bank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. The test examines how banks fare during various hypothetical economic downturns. Banks were forced to freeze dividends and stop buybacks during the pandemic. These results should give them the greenlight to eventually raise payouts. Goldman Sachs shares rose about 1%.</p>\n<p>Despite Wednesday's hiccup, the three major indexes are up more than 1% this week, rallying from a sell-off last week after the Fed heightened inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as soon as 2023. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a Congressional testimony Tuesdayreiterated that inflation pressures should be temporary, which seemed to soothe market sentiment.</p>\n<p>\"Beneath the optimism, markets are at risk of becoming complacent – and vulnerable to shocks. Any signal that interest rates and bond yields could rise, even in the absence of pronounced inflationary pressure, could shatter market exuberance,\" Gaurav Mallik,&nbsp;chief portfolio strategist&nbsp;at&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;Global Advisors, said.</p>\n<p>\"Central banks will walk a tightrope between allowing the economy to run hot – which history has shown to be a bad idea – and managing inflation risk,\" he added.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 rises to retake record at the open, wiping out last week’s Fed swoon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 rises to retake record at the open, wiping out last week’s Fed swoon\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-24 21:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 24)&nbsp;The S&amp;P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market fully recovered losses triggered by the Federal Reserve’s surprise policy pivot.</p>\n<p>The broad equity benchmark rose 0.5% to hit an all-time high, retaking its previous record on June 14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.</p>\n<p>A broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.</p>\n<p>Data out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.</p>\n<p>Traders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%</p>\n<p>Bank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. The test examines how banks fare during various hypothetical economic downturns. Banks were forced to freeze dividends and stop buybacks during the pandemic. These results should give them the greenlight to eventually raise payouts. Goldman Sachs shares rose about 1%.</p>\n<p>Despite Wednesday's hiccup, the three major indexes are up more than 1% this week, rallying from a sell-off last week after the Fed heightened inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as soon as 2023. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a Congressional testimony Tuesdayreiterated that inflation pressures should be temporary, which seemed to soothe market sentiment.</p>\n<p>\"Beneath the optimism, markets are at risk of becoming complacent – and vulnerable to shocks. Any signal that interest rates and bond yields could rise, even in the absence of pronounced inflationary pressure, could shatter market exuberance,\" Gaurav Mallik,&nbsp;chief portfolio strategist&nbsp;at&nbsp;State Street&nbsp;Global Advisors, said.</p>\n<p>\"Central banks will walk a tightrope between allowing the economy to run hot – which history has shown to be a bad idea – and managing inflation risk,\" he added.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167326019","content_text":"(June 24) The S&P 500 climbed on Thursday, surpassing its record high set a week ago as the market fully recovered losses triggered by the Federal Reserve’s surprise policy pivot.\nThe broad equity benchmark rose 0.5% to hit an all-time high, retaking its previous record on June 14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 207 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.6% to reach another record.\nA broad group of stocks gained to push the benchmarks to new highs. Tesla added more than 2%, while GM and Caterpillar each gained about 1%.\nData out Thursday showed jobless claimstotaled 411,000for the week ended June 19, higher than an estimate of 380,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones.\nTraders are also monitoringinfrastructure package negotiations.A bipartisan group of Senators that have made progress on a plan will meet President Joe Biden at the White House Thursday. The lawmakers have worked for weeks to craft a roughly $1 trillion package that could get through Congress with support from both parties. Republicans have fought the president’s proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%\nBank shares gained ahead of theFed's annual bank stress test results, which are scheduled for release after the bell on Thursday. The test examines how banks fare during various hypothetical economic downturns. Banks were forced to freeze dividends and stop buybacks during the pandemic. These results should give them the greenlight to eventually raise payouts. Goldman Sachs shares rose about 1%.\nDespite Wednesday's hiccup, the three major indexes are up more than 1% this week, rallying from a sell-off last week after the Fed heightened inflation expectations and forecast rate hikes as soon as 2023. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during a Congressional testimony Tuesdayreiterated that inflation pressures should be temporary, which seemed to soothe market sentiment.\n\"Beneath the optimism, markets are at risk of becoming complacent – and vulnerable to shocks. Any signal that interest rates and bond yields could rise, even in the absence of pronounced inflationary pressure, could shatter market exuberance,\" Gaurav Mallik, chief portfolio strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said.\n\"Central banks will walk a tightrope between allowing the economy to run hot – which history has shown to be a bad idea – and managing inflation risk,\" he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167751985,"gmtCreate":1624285766947,"gmtModify":1631892380760,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!&nbsp;","listText":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!&nbsp;","text":"Hard to see price going up past $140 any time soon, but it's never a good idea to bet against Apple either!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167751985","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126189681,"gmtCreate":1624547509443,"gmtModify":1631891181171,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!&nbsp;","listText":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!&nbsp;","text":"Market leaders like ASML command strong moat and are worth their premiums!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126189681","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121587593,"gmtCreate":1624478026212,"gmtModify":1631891181174,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.&nbsp;","listText":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.&nbsp;","text":"Easy to say there is a bubble, difficult to say when it will burst.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121587593","repostId":"1115637073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585287,"gmtCreate":1624477279549,"gmtModify":1631891181179,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","listText":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","text":"Got to assess a company based on how well it treats its employees too, and DASH delivery drivers are probably having a tough time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121585287","repostId":"1143023261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143023261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624441129,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143023261?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 17:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"DoorDash Stock Is Priced for Perfection Here, but Watch for Dips","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143023261","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n\nOn Dec. 9, 2020,","content":"<blockquote>\n DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n</blockquote>\n<p>On Dec. 9, 2020,<b>DoorDash</b>(NYSE:<b><u>DASH</u></b>) stock started trading on the New York Stock Exchange and closed up more than 85% in its debut, giving the company a market valuation of approximately $60.2 billion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d3df1e0ebde0067eb12e622ca5a177\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com</p>\n<p>Year-to-date, DASH stock is up 13.1%, trading at more reasonable price multiples than February highs.</p>\n<p>However, the stock is still trading at 14.6x price-to-sales. In comparison,<b>Grubhub</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GRUB</u></b>) trades at 0.8x and<b>Uber</b>(NYSE:<b><u>UBER</u></b>) at 8.1x.</p>\n<p>DoorDash’s current market price is too high for several reasons. The delivery market is very competitive, and the company was loss-making last year and is only expected to barely break even this year on an adjusted basis.</p>\n<p>For all these reasons and more, it is better to let DASH stock lose steam. At a discount, shares of the online food ordering and food delivery platform can be worth a small position in your portfolio. But not at current rates.</p>\n<p><b>DASH Stock: A Classic Pandemic Play</b></p>\n<p>DoorDash revenues tripled last year, but its performance during last year’s crisis is not astounding.</p>\n<p>People increasingly opted for food delivery services as they sheltered at home through the novel coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>However, now that the economy is whirring back and people returning to sit-down restaurants, DoorDash’s prospects are less bright.</p>\n<p>Interestingly, DoorDash does not think so. In May, the company reported excellent operating results for the first quarter of the year, lifting its guidance for gross order value to between $35 billion and $38 billion from $30 billion to $33 billion previously.</p>\n<p>Whether the company can reach that number will have to be seen. But even with net sales increasing 198% to $1.08 billion, topping expectations of $993.3 million, the operating loss came in at $99 million, marginally improving from $123 million in Q1 2020.</p>\n<p>Chalk it up to a competitive delivery market with few ways to differentiate the major players. There are no switching costs, and customers are just looking for the app that will give them the lowest cost.</p>\n<p>DoorDash does deserve credit, though. It has diversified its revenue stream, which puts it in a different light from its peers.</p>\n<p>The company charges restaurants a commission based on the total dollar order value and also charges a fee to consumers for using its platform.</p>\n<p>More interestingly, though, the company operates DashPass subscription service, which charges per-order fees to merchants that utilize its logistics to service orders under its Drive third party program.</p>\n<p><b>Growth Prospects</b></p>\n<p>Now you might be thinking DoorDash could be the next<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>). In the last five years, TSLA has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 1165% and its sector by 1121%.</p>\n<p>So, clearly, even if a stock looks overvalued, you can end up making a nice return on your investment.</p>\n<p>Sales more than tripled last year to $2.9 billion, and the top line has grown about 200% each year between 2018 and 2020.</p>\n<p>During the same period, growth rates of about 34% for Uber, 85% for Lyft, and 39% for Grubhub were recorded. However, prospectively, things are expected to slow down considerably.</p>\n<p>According to consensus estimates gathered by Refinitiv, the top line of DoorDash is expected to grow by 45.4% and 76.0% in fiscal 2021 and 2022, respectively.</p>\n<p>For Uber, analysts expect top-line growth of 42.20% and 99.3%, and for Grubhub, the 19.50% and 38.70% in fiscal 2021 and 2022.</p>\n<p>DoorDash has innovated and has been quick to spot trends in the fast-growing delivery space, concentrating on suburban markets, for example.</p>\n<p>But as people return to restaurants, demand for delivery will become sluggish, impacting revenues and profits. So, revenue and profitability targets for DoorDash will become hard to achieve.</p>\n<p>In addition, DoorDash’s long-term margin prospects are uncertain, considering it operates in the relatively low margin restaurant business, with its labor cost increasing alongside order volumes.</p>\n<p>When you take all these factors into account, DoorDash’s valuation seems a bit far-fetched, especially when you compare it to Uber, which offers diversified revenue streams at a discount.</p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line on DASH Stock</b></p>\n<p>There is much to like about DoorDash. It has performed excellently during the pandemic, and its asset-light model is not to be taken lightly. However, it operates in a very competitive market with razor-sharp margins.</p>\n<p>On top of it all, the major impetus of its recent success, the pandemic, will become a thing of the past very shortly. Under these circumstances, the valuation is a bit frothy, in my opinion. As a result, DoorDash can become an interesting bet on a correction.</p>\n<p>Until that happens, Uber stock is a better option if you want exposure to this space. That should give you more bang for your buck while you wait for DASH stock to cool down.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DoorDash Stock Is Priced for Perfection Here, but Watch for Dips</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoorDash Stock Is Priced for Perfection Here, but Watch for Dips\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 17:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/dash-stock-is-priced-for-perfection-here-but-watch-for-dips/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n\nOn Dec. 9, 2020,DoorDash(NYSE:DASH) stock started trading on the New York Stock Exchange and closed up more than 85%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/dash-stock-is-priced-for-perfection-here-but-watch-for-dips/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DASH":"DoorDash, Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/dash-stock-is-priced-for-perfection-here-but-watch-for-dips/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143023261","content_text":"DASH stock should pull back now that people are returning to sit-down restaurants.\n\nOn Dec. 9, 2020,DoorDash(NYSE:DASH) stock started trading on the New York Stock Exchange and closed up more than 85% in its debut, giving the company a market valuation of approximately $60.2 billion.\nSource: Sundry Photography / Shutterstock.com\nYear-to-date, DASH stock is up 13.1%, trading at more reasonable price multiples than February highs.\nHowever, the stock is still trading at 14.6x price-to-sales. In comparison,Grubhub(NYSE:GRUB) trades at 0.8x andUber(NYSE:UBER) at 8.1x.\nDoorDash’s current market price is too high for several reasons. The delivery market is very competitive, and the company was loss-making last year and is only expected to barely break even this year on an adjusted basis.\nFor all these reasons and more, it is better to let DASH stock lose steam. At a discount, shares of the online food ordering and food delivery platform can be worth a small position in your portfolio. But not at current rates.\nDASH Stock: A Classic Pandemic Play\nDoorDash revenues tripled last year, but its performance during last year’s crisis is not astounding.\nPeople increasingly opted for food delivery services as they sheltered at home through the novel coronavirus pandemic.\nHowever, now that the economy is whirring back and people returning to sit-down restaurants, DoorDash’s prospects are less bright.\nInterestingly, DoorDash does not think so. In May, the company reported excellent operating results for the first quarter of the year, lifting its guidance for gross order value to between $35 billion and $38 billion from $30 billion to $33 billion previously.\nWhether the company can reach that number will have to be seen. But even with net sales increasing 198% to $1.08 billion, topping expectations of $993.3 million, the operating loss came in at $99 million, marginally improving from $123 million in Q1 2020.\nChalk it up to a competitive delivery market with few ways to differentiate the major players. There are no switching costs, and customers are just looking for the app that will give them the lowest cost.\nDoorDash does deserve credit, though. It has diversified its revenue stream, which puts it in a different light from its peers.\nThe company charges restaurants a commission based on the total dollar order value and also charges a fee to consumers for using its platform.\nMore interestingly, though, the company operates DashPass subscription service, which charges per-order fees to merchants that utilize its logistics to service orders under its Drive third party program.\nGrowth Prospects\nNow you might be thinking DoorDash could be the nextTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA). In the last five years, TSLA has outperformed the S&P 500 by 1165% and its sector by 1121%.\nSo, clearly, even if a stock looks overvalued, you can end up making a nice return on your investment.\nSales more than tripled last year to $2.9 billion, and the top line has grown about 200% each year between 2018 and 2020.\nDuring the same period, growth rates of about 34% for Uber, 85% for Lyft, and 39% for Grubhub were recorded. However, prospectively, things are expected to slow down considerably.\nAccording to consensus estimates gathered by Refinitiv, the top line of DoorDash is expected to grow by 45.4% and 76.0% in fiscal 2021 and 2022, respectively.\nFor Uber, analysts expect top-line growth of 42.20% and 99.3%, and for Grubhub, the 19.50% and 38.70% in fiscal 2021 and 2022.\nDoorDash has innovated and has been quick to spot trends in the fast-growing delivery space, concentrating on suburban markets, for example.\nBut as people return to restaurants, demand for delivery will become sluggish, impacting revenues and profits. So, revenue and profitability targets for DoorDash will become hard to achieve.\nIn addition, DoorDash’s long-term margin prospects are uncertain, considering it operates in the relatively low margin restaurant business, with its labor cost increasing alongside order volumes.\nWhen you take all these factors into account, DoorDash’s valuation seems a bit far-fetched, especially when you compare it to Uber, which offers diversified revenue streams at a discount.\nThe Bottom Line on DASH Stock\nThere is much to like about DoorDash. It has performed excellently during the pandemic, and its asset-light model is not to be taken lightly. However, it operates in a very competitive market with razor-sharp margins.\nOn top of it all, the major impetus of its recent success, the pandemic, will become a thing of the past very shortly. Under these circumstances, the valuation is a bit frothy, in my opinion. As a result, DoorDash can become an interesting bet on a correction.\nUntil that happens, Uber stock is a better option if you want exposure to this space. That should give you more bang for your buck while you wait for DASH stock to cool down.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DASH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585300,"gmtCreate":1624477142400,"gmtModify":1631891181180,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121585300","repostId":"1179305353","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179305353","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624441813,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179305353?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 17:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179305353","media":"Barron's","summary":"The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recogniz","content":"<p>The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.</p>\n<p>Early on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.</p>\n<p>The drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.</p>\n<p>The accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.</p>\n<p>Tesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.</p>\n<p>The filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.</p>\n<p>If Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.</p>\n<p>Tesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.</p>\n<p>It looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.</p>\n<p>Tesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&amp;P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s Bitcoin Bet Is Going Bad. Here’s How Much It Could Lose.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 17:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bitcoin-losses-accounting-51624373337?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179305353","content_text":"The latest fall in Bitcoin sent the price past a threshold that likely would force Tesla to recognize a loss on its holdings if the cryptocurrency doesn’t rebound by the end of the month. That would raise more concerns about earnings quality at the electric-vehicle company.\nEarly on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at about $29,500, down 9.5% and about 54% below the 52-week high of almost $65,000 it reached in April. It was trading up 0.6% at $32,697.20 at 2:02 p.m.\nThe drop is a problem for Tesla because accounting regulators consider Bitcoin a collectible, so investments in the currency are held at cost. Gains are only recorded when Bitcoin is sold, but companies have to recognize losses when the currency falls below its carrying value. Corporate investors get the pain of losses, but not the boost from gains, while they hold the currency.\nThe accounting is different than for stocks, or traditional currencies, which are marked to market, with both gains and losses reflected in earnings even if a holding isn’t sold.\nTesla was thought to have purchased Bitcoin at about $36,000, the price prevailing when the company announced its investment in February, but the price appears to have been closer to $32,000, based on its first-quarter financial filing. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on its Bitcoin holdings or trading.\nThe filing said the value of Tesla’s holding was $2.48 billion as of March 31, when the price was at almost $59,000. That indicates the company held about 42,000 coins. Tesla listed the holding value of those coins—the price it paid for them—at $1.33 billion. for an average cost per coin of $31,620.\nIf Bitcoin is trading at $29,500 at the end of June, when Tesla wraps up its second quarter, the company would be sitting on a loss of almost $90 million.\nTesla recognized a gain on sales of Bitcoin sale of roughly $100 million in the first quarter. That helped the company earn more than Wall Street analysts expected, but also created some confusion for investors. Some analysts raised concerns about the quality of Tesla’s earnings, reasoning that earnings “beats” should be driven by the underlying business, and not by one-time items.\nIt looks as if analysts and investors will have to deal with another one time item in the company’s second-quarter report. This one won’t be a positive.\nTesla stock was down a little in early trading, while the S&P 500 was marginally higher. Bitcoin could be part of the reason.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121585048,"gmtCreate":1624477046984,"gmtModify":1631891181184,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121585048","repostId":"1103650363","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582221,"gmtCreate":1624476936964,"gmtModify":1631891181186,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Billionaire problems lol","listText":"Billionaire problems lol","text":"Billionaire problems lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121582221","repostId":"1115142051","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115142051","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624447827,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115142051?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115142051","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since ","content":"<p>In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has resigned as a trustee of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Buffett's position on the board was a major PR coup for the foundation, which is one of the world's biggest charitable enterprises.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad33e43f59ee4df358ff3db98d9cfd5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\">Buffett, now 90, announced his decision to step down from the Gates Foundation board in a statement that also announced he had reached the halfway point in giving his Berkshire Hathaway shares to charity. Buffett gave away another $4.1 billion in Berkshire shares to give foundations.</p>\n<p>Ina statementshared with CNBC, Buffett said he was resigning from the Gates Foundation board \"just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire's\".</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"For years I have been a trustee – an inactive trustee at that – of only one recipient of my funds, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. I am now resigning from that post, just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire’s,\" Buffett said in a statement. \"The CEO of BMG is Mark Suzman, an outstanding recent selection who has my full support. My goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation, and my physical participation is in no way needed to achieve these goals.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>While it's true that Buffett has slowly been pulling back from his non-Berkshire activities for years now, the timing of his departure from the Gates Foundation board is certainly curious. As Buffett himself concedes, he was an \"inactive\" member of the board. The board includes two other members, Bill and Melinda. Maybe Buffett simply couldn't stomach the awkwardness at board meetings.</p>\n<p>Melinda Gates reportedly divorced her husband over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, something that Buffett has been mum about - though Warren Buffett was never tied to Epstein like many other titans of American business and finance have been.</p>\n<p>Buffett has contributed $27 billion to the Gates Foundation over the past 15 years. Mark Suzman, the foundation’s chief executive officer, told employees last month that he was in talks to strengthen \"the long-term sustainability and stability of the foundation.\"</p>\n<p>Suzman \"is an outstanding recent selection who has my full support,\" Buffett said. Suzman has insisted that both Bill and Melinda remain committed to the Foundation even after their divorce.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett Resigns From Gates Foundation Board\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 19:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-resigns-gates-foundation-board?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-resigns-gates-foundation-board?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-resigns-gates-foundation-board?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115142051","content_text":"In another potential indicator ofhow public opinion has turned against Bill Gatesin the weeks since he and his now ex-wife Melinda Gates disclosed their divorce plans, financier Warren Buffett has resigned as a trustee of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Buffett's position on the board was a major PR coup for the foundation, which is one of the world's biggest charitable enterprises.\nBuffett, now 90, announced his decision to step down from the Gates Foundation board in a statement that also announced he had reached the halfway point in giving his Berkshire Hathaway shares to charity. Buffett gave away another $4.1 billion in Berkshire shares to give foundations.\nIna statementshared with CNBC, Buffett said he was resigning from the Gates Foundation board \"just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire's\".\n\n \"For years I have been a trustee – an inactive trustee at that – of only one recipient of my funds, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. I am now resigning from that post, just as I have done at all corporate boards other than Berkshire’s,\" Buffett said in a statement. \"The CEO of BMG is Mark Suzman, an outstanding recent selection who has my full support. My goals are 100% in sync with those of the foundation, and my physical participation is in no way needed to achieve these goals.\"\n\nWhile it's true that Buffett has slowly been pulling back from his non-Berkshire activities for years now, the timing of his departure from the Gates Foundation board is certainly curious. As Buffett himself concedes, he was an \"inactive\" member of the board. The board includes two other members, Bill and Melinda. Maybe Buffett simply couldn't stomach the awkwardness at board meetings.\nMelinda Gates reportedly divorced her husband over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, something that Buffett has been mum about - though Warren Buffett was never tied to Epstein like many other titans of American business and finance have been.\nBuffett has contributed $27 billion to the Gates Foundation over the past 15 years. Mark Suzman, the foundation’s chief executive officer, told employees last month that he was in talks to strengthen \"the long-term sustainability and stability of the foundation.\"\nSuzman \"is an outstanding recent selection who has my full support,\" Buffett said. Suzman has insisted that both Bill and Melinda remain committed to the Foundation even after their divorce.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582805,"gmtCreate":1624476902307,"gmtModify":1631891181188,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121582805","repostId":"1155637149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121582050,"gmtCreate":1624476730570,"gmtModify":1631884128136,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BTC is pure speculation, always&nbsp;hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","listText":"BTC is pure speculation, always&nbsp;hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","text":"BTC is pure speculation, always hoping that a greater fool buys your bitcoin at a higher price than you did","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121582050","repostId":"1121798334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121586867,"gmtCreate":1624476578159,"gmtModify":1631891181194,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its&nbsp;strong management","listText":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its&nbsp;strong management","text":"Crazy how crypto affects so many different good companies, but expect NVIDIA to survive with its strong management","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121586867","repostId":"2145283099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121586961,"gmtCreate":1624476424653,"gmtModify":1631891181197,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's go NIO!&nbsp;","listText":"Let's go NIO!&nbsp;","text":"Let's go NIO!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121586961","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145825451","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624433586,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145825451?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 15:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145825451","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.Super fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc. model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.Instead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.The go","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Super fans of the latest and greatest high-end<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:<b>TSLA</b>) model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b294a3604c7ba82bd19b3c70be3a4020\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: nrqemi / Shutterstock.com</p>\n<p>Musk wrote there was… “No need, as Plaid is just so good.”</p>\n<p>The Model S Plaid Plus was supposed to be the fastest, most powerful and priciest version of the company’s Model S. Priced at $149,990, it was to feature a range of 520 miles, thanks to its innovative 4680 battery cells, 1,100 horsepower and the ability to speed from 0 to 60 mph in less than two seconds.</p>\n<p>Instead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.</p>\n<p>As a way to “sugar coat” its flip flop, Tesla said the Model S Plaid is just as fast as the Model S Plaid Plus and $20,000 cheaper. Humm.</p>\n<p>This “bait and switch” has some Tesla fans worried, since they had deposits on the Model S Plaid Plus and wanted the innovative 4680 battery cells that Tesla had been touting as the key to longer range and more power. Essentially, the 4680 battery cells were the latest great Tesla development, since they were the first batteries to also be a structural component that supposedly allowed Tesla to lower the weight of its vehicles.</p>\n<p>Both the company’s Austin and Berlin manufacturing plants now under construction are supposed to also be making the 4680 batteries for new Tesla vehicles. If there is a problem with the engineering associated with utilizing the 4680 batteries or making them a structural component, then Tesla has grossly miscalculated, which is now worrying investors.</p>\n<p>Clearly something happened to delay the 4680 batteries that were supposed to provide Tesla with a competitive and engineering edge. For Tesla’s sake, I hope they figure out the problems associated with their much hyped 4680 battery cells, otherwise concerns about its two new manufacturing plants will emerge, as well as the stock losing more of its “mojo.”</p>\n<p>As someone who owns more than a few high-performance vehicles, I can tell you that the engineering geeks I know do<i>not</i>want to get a new Model S Plaid instead of a Model S Plaid Plus and will likely ask for their deposits back.</p>\n<p>What Tesla did is like Ferrari or Porsche telling its customers that one of their much-hyped new performance models is now not being sold because the base model was just as good! Car fanatics, like myself, like the latest and greatest engineering tidbits, so we would rather cancel our orders versus settle for a base model.</p>\n<p>The good news for Tesla is that its China sales in May resurged to 21,936, up sharply from 11,671 in April. The company’s sales tend to spike at the end of each quarter. For example, Tesla sold 35,478 vehicles in China in March, which was the strongest month ever in China.</p>\n<p>This is raising expectations for very strong China sales in June, especially now that the Model Y is being manufactured in Shanghai. Interestingly, since most Chinese Teslas are now made with iron phosphate batteries, these vehicles have lower range than its lithium cobalt vehicles, but its iron phosphate vehicles are cheaper and now increasingly being exported to Europe.</p>\n<p>However, I’m convinced another electric vehicle (EV) company will eventually displace Tesla as the biggest manufacturer of EVs in China.</p>\n<p><b>Taking Advantage of the EV Revolution’s Profit Potential</b></p>\n<p>I’m talking about&nbsp;<b>Nio, Inc.</b>(NYSE:<b>NIO</b>). The reality is that this company is on the verge of dominating the EV market in China and Hong Kong. It’s why I put NIO on my<b><i>Platinum Growth Club</i></b>Model Portfolio back in February.</p>\n<p>The company boasts that it is the “next-generation car company,” as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles that utilize the latest technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI). NIO currently offers an electric seven-seater SUV (ES8) and a five-seater electric SUV (ES6) and recently introduced an attractive electric sedan (ET7). Its vehicles utilize NOMI, an in-vehicle artificial intelligence assistant.</p>\n<p>The company is also partnering with cutting-edge chip companies like<b>NVIDIA Corporation</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NVDA</b>), another one of my<b><i>Platinum Growth Club</i></b>Model Portfolio stocks. NIO plans to use the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip for its electric vehicles that will provide autonomous driving capabilities. The NVIDIA DRIVE Orin-powered supercomputer, which is being called Adam, will be launched in the ET7 sedan in China in 2022. Announcements like this are very positive, so NIO has been stealing some of Tesla’s thunder lately.</p>\n<p>Now, it’s important to note that NIO was bailed out by the Chinese government. Last year, the Chinese government injected $1 billion and now has a 24% ownership in the company. The reality is that China wants to dominate at least five major industries by 2025, and NIO is now its ticket to dominate EV manufacturing.</p>\n<p>With the backing of the Chinese government, some Wall Street firms are eager to help NIO by issuing new debt or equity. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if NIO surpasses Tesla, which is currently number-two in China, for market share in the upcoming years.</p>\n<p>That means, if you missed Tesla’s parabolic run like I did, NIO is essentially giving us a “second chance” to make money in a potentially explosive electric vehicle company.</p>\n<p>Shares of NIO climbed nearly 13% since the company’s June 4 announcement of its May delivery report and positive analyst comments, while Tesla shares rose almost 3%. First, NIO revealed that the global chip shortage is starting to take a toll on its business. NIO only delivered 6,711 vehicles in May, or a 5.5% decline from April’s deliveries. Company management noted that deliveries were “adversely impacted for several days due to the volatility of semiconductor supply and certain logistical adjustments.”</p>\n<p>Interestingly, despite the month-to-month dip, NIO’s deliveries were still up 95.3% year-over-year. Strong demand in China even inspired a Citigroup analyst to upgrade NIO to a buy rating, as he expects demand to accelerate in the coming months.</p>\n<p>In other words, NIO represents the<b>crème de la crème</b>of EV stocks right now.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 15:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.\n\nSuper fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) model received some disappointing news a week ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145825451","content_text":"The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.\n\nSuper fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.\nSource: nrqemi / Shutterstock.com\nMusk wrote there was… “No need, as Plaid is just so good.”\nThe Model S Plaid Plus was supposed to be the fastest, most powerful and priciest version of the company’s Model S. Priced at $149,990, it was to feature a range of 520 miles, thanks to its innovative 4680 battery cells, 1,100 horsepower and the ability to speed from 0 to 60 mph in less than two seconds.\nInstead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.\nAs a way to “sugar coat” its flip flop, Tesla said the Model S Plaid is just as fast as the Model S Plaid Plus and $20,000 cheaper. Humm.\nThis “bait and switch” has some Tesla fans worried, since they had deposits on the Model S Plaid Plus and wanted the innovative 4680 battery cells that Tesla had been touting as the key to longer range and more power. Essentially, the 4680 battery cells were the latest great Tesla development, since they were the first batteries to also be a structural component that supposedly allowed Tesla to lower the weight of its vehicles.\nBoth the company’s Austin and Berlin manufacturing plants now under construction are supposed to also be making the 4680 batteries for new Tesla vehicles. If there is a problem with the engineering associated with utilizing the 4680 batteries or making them a structural component, then Tesla has grossly miscalculated, which is now worrying investors.\nClearly something happened to delay the 4680 batteries that were supposed to provide Tesla with a competitive and engineering edge. For Tesla’s sake, I hope they figure out the problems associated with their much hyped 4680 battery cells, otherwise concerns about its two new manufacturing plants will emerge, as well as the stock losing more of its “mojo.”\nAs someone who owns more than a few high-performance vehicles, I can tell you that the engineering geeks I know donotwant to get a new Model S Plaid instead of a Model S Plaid Plus and will likely ask for their deposits back.\nWhat Tesla did is like Ferrari or Porsche telling its customers that one of their much-hyped new performance models is now not being sold because the base model was just as good! Car fanatics, like myself, like the latest and greatest engineering tidbits, so we would rather cancel our orders versus settle for a base model.\nThe good news for Tesla is that its China sales in May resurged to 21,936, up sharply from 11,671 in April. The company’s sales tend to spike at the end of each quarter. For example, Tesla sold 35,478 vehicles in China in March, which was the strongest month ever in China.\nThis is raising expectations for very strong China sales in June, especially now that the Model Y is being manufactured in Shanghai. Interestingly, since most Chinese Teslas are now made with iron phosphate batteries, these vehicles have lower range than its lithium cobalt vehicles, but its iron phosphate vehicles are cheaper and now increasingly being exported to Europe.\nHowever, I’m convinced another electric vehicle (EV) company will eventually displace Tesla as the biggest manufacturer of EVs in China.\nTaking Advantage of the EV Revolution’s Profit Potential\nI’m talking about Nio, Inc.(NYSE:NIO). The reality is that this company is on the verge of dominating the EV market in China and Hong Kong. It’s why I put NIO on myPlatinum Growth ClubModel Portfolio back in February.\nThe company boasts that it is the “next-generation car company,” as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles that utilize the latest technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI). NIO currently offers an electric seven-seater SUV (ES8) and a five-seater electric SUV (ES6) and recently introduced an attractive electric sedan (ET7). Its vehicles utilize NOMI, an in-vehicle artificial intelligence assistant.\nThe company is also partnering with cutting-edge chip companies likeNVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA), another one of myPlatinum Growth ClubModel Portfolio stocks. NIO plans to use the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip for its electric vehicles that will provide autonomous driving capabilities. The NVIDIA DRIVE Orin-powered supercomputer, which is being called Adam, will be launched in the ET7 sedan in China in 2022. Announcements like this are very positive, so NIO has been stealing some of Tesla’s thunder lately.\nNow, it’s important to note that NIO was bailed out by the Chinese government. Last year, the Chinese government injected $1 billion and now has a 24% ownership in the company. The reality is that China wants to dominate at least five major industries by 2025, and NIO is now its ticket to dominate EV manufacturing.\nWith the backing of the Chinese government, some Wall Street firms are eager to help NIO by issuing new debt or equity. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if NIO surpasses Tesla, which is currently number-two in China, for market share in the upcoming years.\nThat means, if you missed Tesla’s parabolic run like I did, NIO is essentially giving us a “second chance” to make money in a potentially explosive electric vehicle company.\nShares of NIO climbed nearly 13% since the company’s June 4 announcement of its May delivery report and positive analyst comments, while Tesla shares rose almost 3%. First, NIO revealed that the global chip shortage is starting to take a toll on its business. NIO only delivered 6,711 vehicles in May, or a 5.5% decline from April’s deliveries. Company management noted that deliveries were “adversely impacted for several days due to the volatility of semiconductor supply and certain logistical adjustments.”\nInterestingly, despite the month-to-month dip, NIO’s deliveries were still up 95.3% year-over-year. Strong demand in China even inspired a Citigroup analyst to upgrade NIO to a buy rating, as he expects demand to accelerate in the coming months.\nIn other words, NIO represents thecrème de la crèmeof EV stocks right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121504310,"gmtCreate":1624469965430,"gmtModify":1631891181200,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!&nbsp;","listText":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!&nbsp;","text":"Unfortunate that the impact of bitcoin is so large, but happy to hold on!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121504310","repostId":"1188931868","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120936670,"gmtCreate":1624291474390,"gmtModify":1631892380703,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","listText":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","text":"60x sales is too high to chase. Great company, nutty valuations","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120936670","repostId":"1181010712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181010712","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624278315,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181010712?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 20:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181010712","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:","content":"<blockquote>\n NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Today’s write-up about<b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NVDA</u></b>) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and the comments here are all about timing.</p>\n<p>Investors have different timelines, so there isn’t one entry point or decision to fit everyone the same.</p>\n<p>My beef with it now is that the stock has been so relentless for too long. The easy bullish setup is over, and this week’s burst sealed the deal.<b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AMD</u></b>) stock price range makes more sense.</p>\n<p>Today I am calling for a bit of self-control. Investors that are not yet long NVDA stock should know that they missed the easy trade. The hard part is to be patient for re-entry lower.</p>\n<p>This doesn’t mean that I can short it, but I must temper my enthusiasm for new positions. I completely understand long-term investors not caring so much about timing. If that’s the case then waiting a few more ticks shouldn’t matter either. My main concern is first to avoid potentially bad entries. An incline as steep as this one qualifies as a potential trap.</p>\n<p>When great stocks spike their relative valuation changes with extreme altitudes. Currently, Nvidia management placed itself in a leading role among the top three chip manufacturers. AMD comes in a close second and<b>Intel</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>INTC</u></b>) is dragging third. This affords NVDA stock a premium but the differential has grown way too big.</p>\n<p><b>Relative Value to AMD Makes NVDA Expensive</b></p>\n<p>When I say expensive, I don’t mean that I want it to be cheap. This is a growth company so value is not what I seek. However, NVDA now has a hefty 60 price-to-sales ratio, three times&nbsp;more expensive than AMD, and they are both delivering the same growth.</p>\n<p>If you force me to chose which to buy, I would opt for AMD for that reason. The easiest way to say it is that this is not an obvious point of entry in NVDA stock.</p>\n<p>There is also risk from the overall market. The indices are still breaking records but largely thanks to artificial infusions from the government. The Federal Reserve has had the spigots open full-bore for years. This week they hinted at the possibility of winding it down.</p>\n<p>When that happens it will leave a void worth $1.4 trillion a year from asset purchases. The White House stimuli that are three times bigger are also winding down.</p>\n<p>The reflation efforts have goosed the stock market and created hyperinflation situations. I use this “hyperinflation” term on purpose because itrecently made headlines on CNBC. I’m not from Wall Street, yet my measurement of inflation is certainly more accurate than the CPI they publish.</p>\n<p>I know the carton of milk I buy at Costco is 50% more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Almost everything now has never been more expensive. Houses, cars and even food. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called it “transitory” and I’d like to see what would unwind it lower.</p>\n<p>Circling back to NVDA it is definitely a BUY in my book but on dips. It broke out from $650 per share. Arguably this even started $50 lower, but the target is closer to $800 per share.</p>\n<p>Investors who have missed the entry here should set their alerts to buy the dip when it happens. I am confident that this year we will have that chance. A general correction of equities will drag down the good stocks too. Those that have rallied this far have the most to give back.</p>\n<p><b>There Are Better Levels for NVDA Stock Buys</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd18b9d27a6de0abcf734e0f652d6e3\" tg-width=\"1543\" tg-height=\"826\">After a breakout, stock prices often revisit the necklines. For NVDA that’s at or below $625 per share. There should be very strong support waiting for it there.</p>\n<p>The stock has consolidated in a very wide range since last September. Those who want to short the stock now should book profits quickly. I don’t see a scenario where this stock completely falls apart alone. If the market crashes massively, then the gift of the century would be to by it below $480.</p>\n<p>If I can’t wait that long then I can do it now with options. Instead of buying shares I can sell the NVDA December $480 put and collect $8 per contract. This means that the stock can fall 35% and I can still profit.</p>\n<p>Committing to owning shares that much lower is safer than risking $746 per share right here. Regardless of the method, investors should only take partial positions so they can manage the risk over time.</p>\n<p>I will end this how I started by saying that I am a fan of the company. But I don’t like chasing it at these altitudes even if I miss some upside. Patience will reward investors in the long run.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is Worth the Wait, but It Is Too Hot Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 20:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/nvidia-is-worth-the-wait-but-it-is-too-hot-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181010712","content_text":"NVDA stock is a winner long term because of strong management.\n\nToday’s write-up aboutNvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) stock might sound a bit bearish at times. Ignore that because I’m a big fan of the company and the comments here are all about timing.\nInvestors have different timelines, so there isn’t one entry point or decision to fit everyone the same.\nMy beef with it now is that the stock has been so relentless for too long. The easy bullish setup is over, and this week’s burst sealed the deal.Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD) stock price range makes more sense.\nToday I am calling for a bit of self-control. Investors that are not yet long NVDA stock should know that they missed the easy trade. The hard part is to be patient for re-entry lower.\nThis doesn’t mean that I can short it, but I must temper my enthusiasm for new positions. I completely understand long-term investors not caring so much about timing. If that’s the case then waiting a few more ticks shouldn’t matter either. My main concern is first to avoid potentially bad entries. An incline as steep as this one qualifies as a potential trap.\nWhen great stocks spike their relative valuation changes with extreme altitudes. Currently, Nvidia management placed itself in a leading role among the top three chip manufacturers. AMD comes in a close second andIntel(NASDAQ:INTC) is dragging third. This affords NVDA stock a premium but the differential has grown way too big.\nRelative Value to AMD Makes NVDA Expensive\nWhen I say expensive, I don’t mean that I want it to be cheap. This is a growth company so value is not what I seek. However, NVDA now has a hefty 60 price-to-sales ratio, three times more expensive than AMD, and they are both delivering the same growth.\nIf you force me to chose which to buy, I would opt for AMD for that reason. The easiest way to say it is that this is not an obvious point of entry in NVDA stock.\nThere is also risk from the overall market. The indices are still breaking records but largely thanks to artificial infusions from the government. The Federal Reserve has had the spigots open full-bore for years. This week they hinted at the possibility of winding it down.\nWhen that happens it will leave a void worth $1.4 trillion a year from asset purchases. The White House stimuli that are three times bigger are also winding down.\nThe reflation efforts have goosed the stock market and created hyperinflation situations. I use this “hyperinflation” term on purpose because itrecently made headlines on CNBC. I’m not from Wall Street, yet my measurement of inflation is certainly more accurate than the CPI they publish.\nI know the carton of milk I buy at Costco is 50% more expensive than it was pre-pandemic. Almost everything now has never been more expensive. Houses, cars and even food. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called it “transitory” and I’d like to see what would unwind it lower.\nCircling back to NVDA it is definitely a BUY in my book but on dips. It broke out from $650 per share. Arguably this even started $50 lower, but the target is closer to $800 per share.\nInvestors who have missed the entry here should set their alerts to buy the dip when it happens. I am confident that this year we will have that chance. A general correction of equities will drag down the good stocks too. Those that have rallied this far have the most to give back.\nThere Are Better Levels for NVDA Stock Buys\nAfter a breakout, stock prices often revisit the necklines. For NVDA that’s at or below $625 per share. There should be very strong support waiting for it there.\nThe stock has consolidated in a very wide range since last September. Those who want to short the stock now should book profits quickly. I don’t see a scenario where this stock completely falls apart alone. If the market crashes massively, then the gift of the century would be to by it below $480.\nIf I can’t wait that long then I can do it now with options. Instead of buying shares I can sell the NVDA December $480 put and collect $8 per contract. This means that the stock can fall 35% and I can still profit.\nCommitting to owning shares that much lower is safer than risking $746 per share right here. Regardless of the method, investors should only take partial positions so they can manage the risk over time.\nI will end this how I started by saying that I am a fan of the company. But I don’t like chasing it at these altitudes even if I miss some upside. Patience will reward investors in the long run.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120997427,"gmtCreate":1624291313169,"gmtModify":1631892380709,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","listText":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","text":"What else is there to invest in other than equities? The risk/reward ratio will almost always be present with a long enough time horizon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120997427","repostId":"2145084680","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145084680","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624278649,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145084680?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Retail investor stock buying boom of 2021 is just getting started: Goldman Sachs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145084680","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time","content":"<p>If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time volatility in shares of AMC Entertainment, GameStop and Blackberry is only just beginning.</p>\n<p>The investment bank's chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin raised his 2021 estimate on household net equity buying to $400 billion from $350 billion in a new research note to clients. In the first quarter alone, households were the largest source of equity demand with net purchases of $172 billion.</p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the clearest signs of exuberance on the part of retail investors (perhaps too much, Kostin estimates that households currently allocate an outsized 44% of their assets to equities. That is only slightly below the all-time high of 46% seen back at the height of the dot com craze (and subsequent blowup).</p>\n<p>\"High cash balances and continued retail participation in equity markets should bolster household equity demand. The tradeoff households face between equities and other asset classes favors equities through year-end given anemic money market and credit yields. Additionally, any signs of a sustained increase in inflation would favor equities over bonds or cash,\" explains Kostin.</p>\n<p>To be sure, the enlarged appetite to buy stocks among the retail crowd outlined by Goldman is poised to be severely tested in coming weeks.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/104dbda916e034fdd5094bb2a80d2cf1\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Households continue to have a strong appetite for stocks.Goldman Sachs</p>\n<p>Renewed volatility has swept through the markets in the aftermath of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers opened the door to higher interest rates and the start of tapering bond purchases. Both actions are seen as headwinds to stock prices in the months and years ahead.</p>\n<p>The markets didn't appreciate the surprising level of hawkishness from the Fed, and made their views heard.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked more than 533 points on Friday as investors digested fresh hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard two days after the latest Fed meeting. All of the Dow's components finished in the red, led by Chevron, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> and Goldman Sachs.</p>\n<p>Last week's mostly risk-off environment in the markets highlighted a shift in sector ownership that has been underway in recent weeks to little fanfare among pundits. Most of the best-performing sectors over the past month have been defensives and tech, both of which tend to see strong interest amidst heightened market uncertainty.</p>\n<p>Some Wall Street strategists suggest it's time to buckle up as today's market is looking very different than the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> earlier in the year.</p>\n<p>\"Although macro influence over S&amp;P volatility has declined, total macro risk is higher than normal, in part due to the outsized impact of changes in credit spreads on equity volatility. With the yield curve likely to be a major source of debate going forward, expect sector, factor and industry reversals to continue until the economic and policy paths are more certain. That is consistent with a mean reverting backdrop and suggests some caution in chasing short Value/Cyclical trades. Value and Small caps tend to have much stronger than normal returns after sharp and if the recent history of mean reversion is any guide, expect some reversal in July,\" warns EvercoreISI senior managing director Dennis DeBusschere.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Retail investor stock buying boom of 2021 is just getting started: Goldman Sachs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRetail investor stock buying boom of 2021 is just getting started: Goldman Sachs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 20:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-investor-stock-buying-boom-of-2021-is-just-getting-started-goldman-sachs-102449550.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time volatility in shares of AMC Entertainment, GameStop and Blackberry is only just beginning.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-investor-stock-buying-boom-of-2021-is-just-getting-started-goldman-sachs-102449550.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","CVX":"雪佛龙","AMC":"AMC院线","CLNE":"Clean Energy Fuels Corp","GS":"高盛","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-investor-stock-buying-boom-of-2021-is-just-getting-started-goldman-sachs-102449550.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2145084680","content_text":"If Goldman Sachs is right, the Great 2021 Retail Investor Stock Buying Boom that has fueled big-time volatility in shares of AMC Entertainment, GameStop and Blackberry is only just beginning.\nThe investment bank's chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin raised his 2021 estimate on household net equity buying to $400 billion from $350 billion in a new research note to clients. In the first quarter alone, households were the largest source of equity demand with net purchases of $172 billion.\nIn one of the clearest signs of exuberance on the part of retail investors (perhaps too much, Kostin estimates that households currently allocate an outsized 44% of their assets to equities. That is only slightly below the all-time high of 46% seen back at the height of the dot com craze (and subsequent blowup).\n\"High cash balances and continued retail participation in equity markets should bolster household equity demand. The tradeoff households face between equities and other asset classes favors equities through year-end given anemic money market and credit yields. Additionally, any signs of a sustained increase in inflation would favor equities over bonds or cash,\" explains Kostin.\nTo be sure, the enlarged appetite to buy stocks among the retail crowd outlined by Goldman is poised to be severely tested in coming weeks.\nHouseholds continue to have a strong appetite for stocks.Goldman Sachs\nRenewed volatility has swept through the markets in the aftermath of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers opened the door to higher interest rates and the start of tapering bond purchases. Both actions are seen as headwinds to stock prices in the months and years ahead.\nThe markets didn't appreciate the surprising level of hawkishness from the Fed, and made their views heard.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked more than 533 points on Friday as investors digested fresh hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard two days after the latest Fed meeting. All of the Dow's components finished in the red, led by Chevron, Walgreens Boots Alliance and Goldman Sachs.\nLast week's mostly risk-off environment in the markets highlighted a shift in sector ownership that has been underway in recent weeks to little fanfare among pundits. Most of the best-performing sectors over the past month have been defensives and tech, both of which tend to see strong interest amidst heightened market uncertainty.\nSome Wall Street strategists suggest it's time to buckle up as today's market is looking very different than the one earlier in the year.\n\"Although macro influence over S&P volatility has declined, total macro risk is higher than normal, in part due to the outsized impact of changes in credit spreads on equity volatility. With the yield curve likely to be a major source of debate going forward, expect sector, factor and industry reversals to continue until the economic and policy paths are more certain. That is consistent with a mean reverting backdrop and suggests some caution in chasing short Value/Cyclical trades. Value and Small caps tend to have much stronger than normal returns after sharp and if the recent history of mean reversion is any guide, expect some reversal in July,\" warns EvercoreISI senior managing director Dennis DeBusschere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"BB":0.9,"CLNE":0.9,"CVX":0.9,"GME":0.9,"GS":0.9,"WBA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120996124,"gmtCreate":1624291186868,"gmtModify":1631892380735,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","listText":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","text":"Strong top line growth should lead to strong out performance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120996124","repostId":"1122985599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167729633,"gmtCreate":1624285420322,"gmtModify":1631892380762,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","listText":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","text":"No shot on GameStop. Speculation, not investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167729633","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162346428,"gmtCreate":1624036821364,"gmtModify":1631884324172,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","listText":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","text":"Hope ROKU succeeds in breaking into the UK market and establishing market share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162346428","repostId":"2144077147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162348426,"gmtCreate":1624036748065,"gmtModify":1631892380772,"author":{"id":"3587082672087005","authorId":"3587082672087005","name":"investor_zer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587082672087005","authorIdStr":"3587082672087005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162348426","repostId":"1119296361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624028454,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119296361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296361","media":"Barrons","summary":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier","content":"<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.</p>\n<p>There’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.</p>\n<p>After Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&amp;P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%</p>\n<p>The market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&amp;P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.</p>\n<p>Why the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.</p>\n<p>Until that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Stocks Were Fed Day Winners. Why They’re Getting Crushed.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","MS":"摩根士丹利","WFC":"富国银行","C":"花旗","BAC":"美国银行","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-were-fed-day-winners-why-theyre-getting-crushed-today-51623957525?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296361","content_text":"Bank stocks rosewhen the Fed released its June monetary policy statement, one thatpointed to earlier than expected rate hikes. On Thursday, they were among the market’s biggest losers.\nThere’s a good reason for that. Banks generally make money by borrowing money short and lending it out long—andmaking a profit off the spread. When longer-term rates rise faster than shorter-term ones, bank margins generally get better, while the profits deteriorate when the opposite happens.\nAfter Wednesday’s meeting, the 10-year yield got a big bounce—it rose 0.071% to 1.569%—while thetwo-year yield rose0.038 percentage point to 0.203%, putting the spread between the two at 1.366 percentage points. That widening made the financial sector generally, and bank stocks specifically, one of the few sectors to react positively to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday. TheSPDR S&P Bank ETF(KBE) rose 0.9%, whileJPMorgan Chase(JPM) rose 0.7%, even as theS&P 500fell 0.5%, theDow Jones Industrial Averagedropped 0.8%, and theNasdaq Compositedeclined 0.2%\nThe market, however, has had a change of heart. The 10-year yield has fallen to 1.498%, while the two-year has risen to 0.238%, putting the gap at 1.26 percentage points. That so-called flattening of the yield curve is bad news for a rate-sensitive sector like banks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF fell 4.5% on Thurdsay and 1% in premarket trading on Friday. JPMorgan dropped 2.9% on Thursday and is down about 1% on Friday. S&P 500 futures on Friday were down 0.6%, while Dow futures were down 0.8%. Futures for the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%.\nWhy the about-face from the market? For yields to keep rising, the economy needs to show that it is recovering quickly. Otherwise, investors are going to bet on a repeat of the slow growth the U.S. experienced after the financial crisis of 2008. With jobless claims missing by a wide margin Thursday—and experiencing the first rise following six weeks of drops—the market decided to focus on the latter, not the former, says Evercore ISI strategist Dennis DeBusschere. “The risk to the economic outlook is the sharp turn to hawkish side, relative to what everyone previously thought, at the same time the labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed assumed,” he writes.\nUntil that changes, it will be hard for bank stocks to bounce back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9,"C":0.9,"GS":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"MS":0.9,"WFC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}