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comments pls thanks","listText":"Like comments pls thanks","text":"Like comments pls thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151413499","repostId":"1178516480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178516480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625094708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178516480?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178516480","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as inves","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在本月和本季度结束时基本上摆脱了积极的经济数据，并期待周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年的最后一个交易日，股指低迷且区间震荡，蓝筹股道指上涨，而纳斯达克则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>三大指数均连续第五个季度上涨，标准普尔指数上涨8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨9.5%，道指上涨4.6%。标普500上半年表现为1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个不错的季度，”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德Dakota Wealth的高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示。“截至昨晚收盘，标普今年迄今已上涨超过14%，超过道指和纳斯达克。这表明股市正在出现广泛反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数结束了四个月的连涨，小幅收低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“今年迄今为止的领先行业正如你所预期的那样，”帕夫利克补充道。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>帕夫利克补充道：“在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注暂时性通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向增长（股票）。”</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的交易已经持续了一段时间，这正在引导人们恢复增长。”</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图：6月份成长股跑赢价值股，年初至今差距缩小，）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约Inverness Counsel首席投资策略师蒂姆·格里斯基(Tim Ghriskey)表示：“整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内持续上涨。”“虽然按照历史标准来看估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理机构ADP的数据，私营部门6月份增加了692,000个就业岗位，轻松超出预期。这一数字比经济学家在劳工部周五发布的更全面的就业报告中预测的私人就业人数高出92,000人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨210.22点，涨幅0.61%，至34,502.51点；标普500上涨5.7点，涨幅0.13%，至4,297.5点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌24.38点，涨幅0.17%，至14,503.95点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔11个主要板块中，有6个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架P-8A海上控制飞机，波音公司股价上涨1.6%，此前联合航空公布了有史以来最大的新飞机订单。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在季度财报发布前上涨2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度业绩后，盘后交易中相对没有变化。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.35比1；在纳斯达克，1.19比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为108.5亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 07:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在本月和本季度结束时基本上摆脱了积极的经济数据，并期待周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年的最后一个交易日，股指低迷且区间震荡，蓝筹股道指上涨，而纳斯达克则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>三大指数均连续第五个季度上涨，标准普尔指数上涨8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨9.5%，道指上涨4.6%。标普500上半年表现为1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个不错的季度，”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德Dakota Wealth的高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示。“截至昨晚收盘，标普今年迄今已上涨超过14%，超过道指和纳斯达克。这表明股市正在出现广泛反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数结束了四个月的连涨，小幅收低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“今年迄今为止的领先行业正如你所预期的那样，”帕夫利克补充道。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>帕夫利克补充道：“在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注暂时性通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向增长（股票）。”</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的交易已经持续了一段时间，这正在引导人们恢复增长。”</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图：6月份成长股跑赢价值股，年初至今差距缩小，）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约Inverness Counsel首席投资策略师蒂姆·格里斯基(Tim Ghriskey)表示：“整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内持续上涨。”“虽然按照历史标准来看估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理机构ADP的数据，私营部门6月份增加了692,000个就业岗位，轻松超出预期。这一数字比经济学家在劳工部周五发布的更全面的就业报告中预测的私人就业人数高出92,000人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨210.22点，涨幅0.61%，至34,502.51点；标普500上涨5.7点，涨幅0.13%，至4,297.5点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌24.38点，涨幅0.17%，至14,503.95点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔11个主要板块中，有6个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架P-8A海上控制飞机，波音公司股价上涨1.6%，此前联合航空公布了有史以来最大的新飞机订单。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在季度财报发布前上涨2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度业绩后，盘后交易中相对没有变化。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.35比1；在纳斯达克，1.19比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为108.5亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178516480","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.\nIn the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.\nAll three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.\n“It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”\nFor the month, the bellwether S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.\nThis month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.\n“Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”\n“(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.\n“Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”\n(Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )\n“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”\nThe private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.\nBoeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.\nWalmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.\nMicron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152374020,"gmtCreate":1625273505160,"gmtModify":1633941926752,"author":{"id":"4087393417375450","authorId":"4087393417375450","name":"Randolphloo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04766028ce018998ac5d6513e688ff85","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087393417375450","idStr":"4087393417375450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep going up","listText":"Keep going up","text":"Keep going 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up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f47d8d8d3cdc63303189dd5e976f4a","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888335108","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816572104,"gmtCreate":1630509983608,"gmtModify":1631891961913,"author":{"id":"4087393417375450","authorId":"4087393417375450","name":"Randolphloo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04766028ce018998ac5d6513e688ff85","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087393417375450","idStr":"4087393417375450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816572104","repostId":"2164813941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124963573,"gmtCreate":1624720111292,"gmtModify":1633949307868,"author":{"id":"4087393417375450","authorId":"4087393417375450","name":"Randolphloo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04766028ce018998ac5d6513e688ff85","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087393417375450","idStr":"4087393417375450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124963573","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810372025,"gmtCreate":1629948393067,"gmtModify":1631891961938,"author":{"id":"4087393417375450","authorId":"4087393417375450","name":"Randolphloo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04766028ce018998ac5d6513e688ff85","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087393417375450","idStr":"4087393417375450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810372025","repostId":"2162203050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148826374,"gmtCreate":1625968261298,"gmtModify":1631893700288,"author":{"id":"4087393417375450","authorId":"4087393417375450","name":"Randolphloo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04766028ce018998ac5d6513e688ff85","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087393417375450","idStr":"4087393417375450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148826374","repostId":"1184476863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184476863","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625967744,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184476863?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:42","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184476863","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li> <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li> <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robert Way/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest article about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，它生产一款名为G3的SUV和一款名为P7的轿车。此外，该公司计划在9月份发布一款名为G3i的SUV升级版，并在年底发布一款新的家庭友好型轿车P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间都跑赢了标普500指数，自我们6月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在提高交付量方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在6月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的6,565辆汽车，同比增长617%。此外，其第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，而第一季度交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到大流行的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超出了15,500-16,000辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这种势头很可能至少持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势是在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将其制造或销售外包到其他国家，因为它拥有巨大的当地市场可以销往国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同资助的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉建成第三家制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，2020年特斯拉(TSLA)在华仅售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，运力增加到如此可观的数量表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争并提高其在大陆的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要事实是，小鹏在国内的技术比特斯拉等更先进。其近一半的研发人员从事自动驾驶软件工作，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果最新版本的软件记得车辆所在的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库中。之前停过。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了其中的一些。首先，XPengTrade的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值计算，可以被认为估值很高。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合投资于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，潜在的中美贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所以双重主要上市结构进行了另一次IPO，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者能够通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务在外部市场没有重大敞口，潜在贸易战的影响将很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，但我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以肯定的是，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的推动增长空间，考虑到其第二季度的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测表明，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从2020财年的90万美元增长364%至2022财年的41.8亿美元，而其每股收益损失预计也将从21年第二季度的-0.33美元降至第三季度和第四季度的-0.06美元。除此之外，该公司截至第一季度末拥有51.2亿美元现金，长期债务仅为4.97亿美元，由于最近香港的发行，其流动性状况已达到70亿美元左右。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能需要通过发行新股来筹集新债务或稀释股东权益来为其扩张提供资金。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长股，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为交付量和产能可能会增加，以及未来几个月即将推出的P5轿车可能会推动其股票上涨更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li> <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li> <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robert Way/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest article about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，它生产一款名为G3的SUV和一款名为P7的轿车。此外，该公司计划在9月份发布一款名为G3i的SUV升级版，并在年底发布一款新的家庭友好型轿车P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间都跑赢了标普500指数，自我们6月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在提高交付量方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在6月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的6,565辆汽车，同比增长617%。此外，其第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，而第一季度交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到大流行的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超出了15,500-16,000辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这种势头很可能至少持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势是在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将其制造或销售外包到其他国家，因为它拥有巨大的当地市场可以销往国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同资助的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉建成第三家制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，2020年特斯拉(TSLA)在华仅售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，运力增加到如此可观的数量表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争并提高其在大陆的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要事实是，小鹏在国内的技术比特斯拉等更先进。其近一半的研发人员从事自动驾驶软件工作，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果最新版本的软件记得车辆所在的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库中。之前停过。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了其中的一些。首先，XPengTrade的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值计算，可以被认为估值很高。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合投资于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，潜在的中美贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所以双重主要上市结构进行了另一次IPO，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者能够通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务在外部市场没有重大敞口，潜在贸易战的影响将很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，但我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以肯定的是，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的推动增长空间，考虑到其第二季度的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测表明，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从2020财年的90万美元增长364%至2022财年的41.8亿美元，而其每股收益损失预计也将从21年第二季度的-0.33美元降至第三季度和第四季度的-0.06美元。除此之外，该公司截至第一季度末拥有51.2亿美元现金，长期债务仅为4.97亿美元，由于最近香港的发行，其流动性状况已达到70亿美元左右。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能需要通过发行新股来筹集新债务或稀释股东权益来为其扩张提供资金。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长股，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为交付量和产能可能会增加，以及未来几个月即将推出的P5轿车可能会推动其股票上涨更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184476863","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.\nBy being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.\nWe continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\n\nRobert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\nFiring On All Cylinders\nXPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest article about its business was published in June.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nOne of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.\nSource:InsideEVs\nThe biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.\nAnother important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.\nRisks\nAs for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.\nIn addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.\nTakeaway\nDespite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.\nThe latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.\nWith all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143619117,"gmtCreate":1625791230939,"gmtModify":1633937329655,"author":{"id":"4087393417375450","authorId":"4087393417375450","name":"Randolphloo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04766028ce018998ac5d6513e688ff85","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087393417375450","idStr":"4087393417375450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143619117","repostId":"1168518405","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155961188,"gmtCreate":1625369856744,"gmtModify":1633941180076,"author":{"id":"4087393417375450","authorId":"4087393417375450","name":"Randolphloo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04766028ce018998ac5d6513e688ff85","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087393417375450","idStr":"4087393417375450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155961188","repostId":"1192425829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192425829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625362308,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192425829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-04 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192425829","media":"The Street","summary":"The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some war","content":"<p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on. The stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (read<b>here</b>and<b>here</b>), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给我们带来了一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，还有一个需要关注的关键日期。过去18个月里，股市、大宗商品市场和固定收益市场都经历了一些疯狂的行情。我们早在1月份就撰写了2021年预测文章（阅读<b>在这里</b>和<b>在这里</b>），但随着大宗商品市场的上涨，油价走强，而市场其他领域正在降温，重新审视今年剩余时间的情况似乎是个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一些月度烛台图开始我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Candlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>烛台分析道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.</p><p><blockquote>在下面道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）的月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格在过去十年中大幅上涨，自2020年3月以来涨幅非常大。在我们的方法上稍微自由一点，我们可以看到自2020年疫情低点以来，有8到10个历史新高的进展。请注意下图中12个月价格动量研究的步伐放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0c65a961cdf2a9b6bdba9757ca8c5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的标普500指数（SPX）月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到过去10年的另一次大幅上涨。该指数在2015-2016年在2,000点至2,200点附近形成了横向盘整模式，我们在很大程度上从那里翻了一番。当SPX接近4,400点时，看到一些重大获利了结，我不会感到惊讶。这里的势头也在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a594dc06dc6364a1f4432334018a95\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格比2018年和2019年在7,000点区域的盘整模式翻了一番。价格较2015-2016年5,000点左右的盘整上涨了近两倍。是的，动量研究正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c8a3b8cbd6d84dc3c316188d0714c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Russell 2000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>罗素2000</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在这张罗素2000指数(RUT)的月度烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较2020年3月的低点上涨了一倍多。这会让你大吃一惊。随着一串白色蜡烛和势头减弱，我们希望在第三季度前进时更加谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2eb68915aa7fe3a35df2b5cca4c7c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些图表（上图）都显示了8到10个创纪录的高点模式，因此我们应该警惕顶部反转模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advance-Decline Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进退分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们把注意力转向涨跌线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的道琼斯日线烛台图中，我们显示了自五月初以来一直横向移动的上涨-下跌线。价格走势之间的差异是看跌背离，但道琼斯是一个狭窄的平均值，只有30只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af49f53b61d7234c47302a43ef8fc54\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the S&P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.</p><p><blockquote>在下面这张标普500及其上涨-下跌线的图表中，我们可以看到价格和上涨-下跌线向上，因此看跌背离尚未开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f76b13060f5ac582155923264b7fb2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克图表中，我们可以看到显着的看跌背离。纳斯达克一直在创出新高，但涨跌幅线自二月份以来一直横向走低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c202ca833085d8ae21f804e01da1d20e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq 100</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克100</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f49df814666506de6bd3a8f8cff358\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Sectors</b></p><p><blockquote>在下面这张纳斯达克100指数及其涨跌幅线的图表中，我们看到价格和指标一起上涨。这里没有看跌背离。<b>部门</b></blockquote></p><p> The marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.<b>Energy</b>In this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>市场可以分为11个部分，但我今天只想介绍其中的一部分。<b>能源</b>在下面的标准普尔能源行业ETF(XLE)的周线烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点翻了一番。过去四个月，交易量非常大，每周余额交易量停滞不前。12周价格动量研究因看跌背离而减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c7c0cb796bbdd57de9aba933c615ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度可能进一步上涨的两家能源公司是EOG Resources(EOG)和康菲石油公司(COP)。这是图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2fc7721f85cac4b418a821156c714f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874820e1c1c54a567c399f5129e88676\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc072387bc975d38d92af5b6b3de16ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2822d20c835ce4f4860d5eb45212cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLF) , the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>在下面金融板块ETF(XLF)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到价格已经开始见顶阶段。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。自6月初以来，平衡成交量线已走弱，移动平均线收敛背离(MACD)振荡器已跌破零线，发出直接卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddfbb55fad602b4a29ff4ef1ba47e0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的科技行业ETF(XLK)的每周日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点上涨了一倍多。自2020年3月以来，交易量一直在减少，每周平衡交易量线在过去12个月中一直处于横盘趋势。底部面板中的12周价格动量研究显示，过去一年的高点较低。这是一个显着的看跌背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d9a652c4c72b421556bfbd90dd8d44\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工业</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLI) , the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.</p><p><blockquote>在下面工业板块ETF(XLI)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到疲软的情况。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。在过去的两个月里，平衡成交量线已经走弱，MACD振荡指标低于卖出区域的零线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47838029e80d6b87a83abb9f1352bdaf\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债券</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的每日点数图中，我们可以看到165美元区域的潜在上行目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587f7bae63415985c849540d27b7ffaa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Dollar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美元</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.</p><p><blockquote>在美元指数（DXY）的每日日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格已经停止测试3月底/4月初的高点。DXY可能会缓慢向下漂移，重新测试5月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c086d11fb1d31f2710dc3752d158a2e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Mark Your Calendars</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标记您的日历</b></blockquote></p><p> A technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.</p><p><blockquote>我自20世纪90年代中期以来一直使用的一项技术服务(www.pfr.com)预计8月2日左右将出现大规模“趋势变化”，这值得关注。这可能标志着主要平均指数可能出现10%的回调。下一次趋势变化预计将在10月下旬，这可能是年底反弹的开始。随着8月2日的临近，我们希望密切关注涨跌数据和价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sentiment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>情绪</b></blockquote></p><p> No discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.</p><p><blockquote>如果不讨论情绪，任何关于股市的讨论都是不完整的。有很多“迹象”表明股市正在下滑。</blockquote></p><p> I see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:</p><p><blockquote>我看到了许多来自其他技术分析师的市场信件和评论，他们都是看涨的。我收到来自Real Money订阅者的电子邮件，询问这只股票或那只股票，我有两个观察结果：</blockquote></p><p> 1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.</p><p><blockquote>1.他们询问的名字似乎更具投机性质。我不记得上次有人给我发电子邮件询问无聊的公用事业股票是什么时候了。</blockquote></p><p> 2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.</p><p><blockquote>2.电子邮件给我留下深刻印象的第二件事是没有认识到风险。每个人都想知道下一个最高价格目标，但他们从不问在哪里移动止损。</blockquote></p><p> Sentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.</p><p><blockquote>情绪不是一个精确的指标，其中大部分本质上是轶事，很难量化。预期的Robinhood IPO可能标志着一个转折点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给了我们一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，交易者需要开始向另一个方向倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> Consider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>考虑增加大宗商品投资，因为它们可能是第三季度表现出色的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?</p><p><blockquote>考虑成为规模扩大的获利者。继续提高止损保护，锁定更多收益。密切关注价格收盘区间。高点通常是在价格接近当天高点时形成的。当市场或您最喜欢的股票下跌时，平衡成交量线是否会随着成交量增加而减弱？</blockquote></p><p> Pay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注新闻，观察股票和市场因看涨消息而下跌——这告诉我们消息已经打折。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-04 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on. The stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (read<b>here</b>and<b>here</b>), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给我们带来了一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，还有一个需要关注的关键日期。过去18个月里，股市、大宗商品市场和固定收益市场都经历了一些疯狂的行情。我们早在1月份就撰写了2021年预测文章（阅读<b>在这里</b>和<b>在这里</b>），但随着大宗商品市场的上涨，油价走强，而市场其他领域正在降温，重新审视今年剩余时间的情况似乎是个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一些月度烛台图开始我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Candlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>烛台分析道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.</p><p><blockquote>在下面道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）的月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格在过去十年中大幅上涨，自2020年3月以来涨幅非常大。在我们的方法上稍微自由一点，我们可以看到自2020年疫情低点以来，有8到10个历史新高的进展。请注意下图中12个月价格动量研究的步伐放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0c65a961cdf2a9b6bdba9757ca8c5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的标普500指数（SPX）月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到过去10年的另一次大幅上涨。该指数在2015-2016年在2,000点至2,200点附近形成了横向盘整模式，我们在很大程度上从那里翻了一番。当SPX接近4,400点时，看到一些重大获利了结，我不会感到惊讶。这里的势头也在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a594dc06dc6364a1f4432334018a95\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格比2018年和2019年在7,000点区域的盘整模式翻了一番。价格较2015-2016年5,000点左右的盘整上涨了近两倍。是的，动量研究正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c8a3b8cbd6d84dc3c316188d0714c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Russell 2000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>罗素2000</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在这张罗素2000指数(RUT)的月度烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较2020年3月的低点上涨了一倍多。这会让你大吃一惊。随着一串白色蜡烛和势头减弱，我们希望在第三季度前进时更加谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2eb68915aa7fe3a35df2b5cca4c7c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些图表（上图）都显示了8到10个创纪录的高点模式，因此我们应该警惕顶部反转模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advance-Decline Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进退分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们把注意力转向涨跌线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的道琼斯日线烛台图中，我们显示了自五月初以来一直横向移动的上涨-下跌线。价格走势之间的差异是看跌背离，但道琼斯是一个狭窄的平均值，只有30只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af49f53b61d7234c47302a43ef8fc54\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the S&P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.</p><p><blockquote>在下面这张标普500及其上涨-下跌线的图表中，我们可以看到价格和上涨-下跌线向上，因此看跌背离尚未开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f76b13060f5ac582155923264b7fb2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克图表中，我们可以看到显着的看跌背离。纳斯达克一直在创出新高，但涨跌幅线自二月份以来一直横向走低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c202ca833085d8ae21f804e01da1d20e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq 100</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克100</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f49df814666506de6bd3a8f8cff358\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Sectors</b></p><p><blockquote>在下面这张纳斯达克100指数及其涨跌幅线的图表中，我们看到价格和指标一起上涨。这里没有看跌背离。<b>部门</b></blockquote></p><p> The marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.<b>Energy</b>In this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>市场可以分为11个部分，但我今天只想介绍其中的一部分。<b>能源</b>在下面的标准普尔能源行业ETF(XLE)的周线烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点翻了一番。过去四个月，交易量非常大，每周余额交易量停滞不前。12周价格动量研究因看跌背离而减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c7c0cb796bbdd57de9aba933c615ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度可能进一步上涨的两家能源公司是EOG Resources(EOG)和康菲石油公司(COP)。这是图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2fc7721f85cac4b418a821156c714f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874820e1c1c54a567c399f5129e88676\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc072387bc975d38d92af5b6b3de16ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2822d20c835ce4f4860d5eb45212cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLF) , the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>在下面金融板块ETF(XLF)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到价格已经开始见顶阶段。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。自6月初以来，平衡成交量线已走弱，移动平均线收敛背离(MACD)振荡器已跌破零线，发出直接卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddfbb55fad602b4a29ff4ef1ba47e0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的科技行业ETF(XLK)的每周日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点上涨了一倍多。自2020年3月以来，交易量一直在减少，每周平衡交易量线在过去12个月中一直处于横盘趋势。底部面板中的12周价格动量研究显示，过去一年的高点较低。这是一个显着的看跌背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d9a652c4c72b421556bfbd90dd8d44\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工业</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLI) , the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.</p><p><blockquote>在下面工业板块ETF(XLI)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到疲软的情况。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。在过去的两个月里，平衡成交量线已经走弱，MACD振荡指标低于卖出区域的零线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47838029e80d6b87a83abb9f1352bdaf\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债券</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的每日点数图中，我们可以看到165美元区域的潜在上行目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587f7bae63415985c849540d27b7ffaa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Dollar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美元</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.</p><p><blockquote>在美元指数（DXY）的每日日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格已经停止测试3月底/4月初的高点。DXY可能会缓慢向下漂移，重新测试5月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c086d11fb1d31f2710dc3752d158a2e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Mark Your Calendars</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标记您的日历</b></blockquote></p><p> A technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.</p><p><blockquote>我自20世纪90年代中期以来一直使用的一项技术服务(www.pfr.com)预计8月2日左右将出现大规模“趋势变化”，这值得关注。这可能标志着主要平均指数可能出现10%的回调。下一次趋势变化预计将在10月下旬，这可能是年底反弹的开始。随着8月2日的临近，我们希望密切关注涨跌数据和价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sentiment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>情绪</b></blockquote></p><p> No discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.</p><p><blockquote>如果不讨论情绪，任何关于股市的讨论都是不完整的。有很多“迹象”表明股市正在下滑。</blockquote></p><p> I see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:</p><p><blockquote>我看到了许多来自其他技术分析师的市场信件和评论，他们都是看涨的。我收到来自Real Money订阅者的电子邮件，询问这只股票或那只股票，我有两个观察结果：</blockquote></p><p> 1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.</p><p><blockquote>1.他们询问的名字似乎更具投机性质。我不记得上次有人给我发电子邮件询问无聊的公用事业股票是什么时候了。</blockquote></p><p> 2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.</p><p><blockquote>2.电子邮件给我留下深刻印象的第二件事是没有认识到风险。每个人都想知道下一个最高价格目标，但他们从不问在哪里移动止损。</blockquote></p><p> Sentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.</p><p><blockquote>情绪不是一个精确的指标，其中大部分本质上是轶事，很难量化。预期的Robinhood IPO可能标志着一个转折点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给了我们一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，交易者需要开始向另一个方向倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> Consider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>考虑增加大宗商品投资，因为它们可能是第三季度表现出色的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?</p><p><blockquote>考虑成为规模扩大的获利者。继续提高止损保护，锁定更多收益。密切关注价格收盘区间。高点通常是在价格接近当天高点时形成的。当市场或您最喜欢的股票下跌时，平衡成交量线是否会随着成交量增加而减弱？</blockquote></p><p> Pay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注新闻，观察股票和市场因看涨消息而下跌——这告诉我们消息已经打折。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/second-half-2021-market-forecasts-thoughts-and-observations-15702152?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/second-half-2021-market-forecasts-thoughts-and-observations-15702152?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192425829","content_text":"The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on.\n\nThe stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (readhereandhere), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.\nLet's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.\nCandlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.\nS&P 500\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.\nNasdaq\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.\nRussell 2000\nIn this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.\nAll these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.\nAdvance-Decline Analysis\nNow, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.\nDow Jones Industrials\nIn this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.\nS&P 500\nIn this chart of the S&P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.\nNasdaq\nIn this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.\nNasdaq 100\nIn this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.Sectors\nThe marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.EnergyIn this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.\n\nTwo energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.\nFinancials\nIn this daily bar chart of the (XLF) , the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.\nTechnology\nIn this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.\nIndustrials\nIn this daily bar chart of the (XLI) , the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.\nBonds\nIn this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.\nU.S. Dollar\nIn this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.\nMark Your Calendars\nA technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.\nSentiment\nNo discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.\nI see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:\n1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.\n2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.\nSentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.\nBottom-Line Strategy\nThe stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.\nConsider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.\nConsider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?\nPay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151434964,"gmtCreate":1625101854958,"gmtModify":1633944805304,"author":{"id":"4087393417375450","authorId":"4087393417375450","name":"Randolphloo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04766028ce018998ac5d6513e688ff85","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087393417375450","idStr":"4087393417375450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok ok ok","listText":"Ok ok ok","text":"Ok ok ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151434964","repostId":"1105779613","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153429850,"gmtCreate":1625043850770,"gmtModify":1633945512883,"author":{"id":"4087393417375450","authorId":"4087393417375450","name":"Randolphloo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04766028ce018998ac5d6513e688ff85","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087393417375450","idStr":"4087393417375450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold","listText":"Hold","text":"Hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153429850","repostId":"1181301986","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181301986","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625043232,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181301986?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 16:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cloudflare Is Much More Scalable Than You Think<blockquote>Cloudflare的可扩展性比您想象的要高得多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181301986","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.\nWhile Cloud","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>We think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.</li> <li>While Cloudflare operates in the Content Delivery Networks space, it has never positioned itself as a CDN player.</li> <li>We present a clearer view of what Cloudflare represents, in order for investors to more appropriately appreciate the high scalability of the company’s business model.</li> <li>While we think Cloudflare is primed for outperformance even at the current price level, we would prefer to add further only at the next retracement.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd63105e871f3b7086e6743081853b5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\"><span>Steve Jennings/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们认为投资者还没有很好地理解Cloudflare的商业模式。</li><li>虽然Cloudflare在内容交付网络领域运营，但它从未将自己定位为CDN参与者。</li><li>我们更清楚地了解Cloudflare所代表的内容，以便投资者更恰当地了解该公司业务模式的高度可扩展性。</li><li>虽然我们认为即使在当前的价格水平下，Cloudflare也有望表现出色，但我们更希望仅在下一次回调时进一步增持。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>史蒂夫·詹宁斯/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Cloudflare's Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Cloudflare的业务模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare (NET) has come to be known as many things to different investors. We have seen investors classifying Cloudflare as a cloud or web security company, or a content delivery network [CDN], or an identity access management [IAM] company. The fact is, while Cloudflare is involved in all of those, the company actually has a much larger scale of operation. Cloudflare sees itself as “a networking company”, that “you have to think about [Cloudflare] almost like Cisco-as-a-service. Anything where you would have bought and acquired hardware on-premise, whether it's firewalls, routers, load balancers, VPNs, we offer this as a service from our network. And this network is masked by now.”</p><p><blockquote>不同的投资者对Cloudflare(NET)有很多了解。我们看到投资者将Cloudflare归类为云或网络安全公司，或内容交付网络[CDN]，或身份访问管理[IAM]公司。事实是，虽然Cloudflare参与了所有这些，但该公司实际上拥有更大的运营规模。Cloudflare将自己视为“一家网络公司”，“你必须像思科即服务一样思考[Cloudflare]。您可以在内部购买和获取硬件的任何东西，无论是防火墙、路由器、负载平衡器、VPN，我们都通过我们的网络提供服务。这个网络现在被屏蔽了。”</blockquote></p><p> In fact, CEO Matthew Prince emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，首席执行官Matthew Prince强调：</blockquote></p><p> So the reason that we picked the ticker symbol NET was because, fundamentally, what it is that we sell is the network that you plug into and then you don't have to worry about anything else. And so that's what we want to deliver. And so a piece of that is you want to make sure you have a fast network. A piece of that is you want to make sure you have a reliable network. But a big piece of that is you want to make sure that you have a network which is helping you solve the security problems that you have. We think that one of the key reasons that Cloudflare wanted investors to clearly understand the company's scope of business is to allow investors to have the appropriate strategic view of the company’s still-expanding TAM, which the company highlighted has been expanding since its IPO in 2019. Although the company started with a TAM of $37B in 2019, which then saw it being revised upwards to $72B, and now the company is looking at a TAM of $100B over the next 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们选择股票代码NET的原因是，从根本上说，我们销售的是您插入的网络，然后您不必担心其他任何事情。这就是我们想要提供的。其中一部分是你要确保你有一个快速的网络。其中一部分是你要确保你有一个可靠的网络。但其中很大一部分是你要确保你有一个网络来帮助你解决你的安全问题。我们认为，Cloudflare希望投资者清楚了解公司业务范围的关键原因之一是让投资者对公司仍在扩张的TAM有适当的战略看法，该公司强调自2019年IPO以来一直在扩张。尽管该公司在2019年开始时的TAM为370亿美元，随后上调至720亿美元，现在该公司正在考虑未来3年的TAM为1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is the Undisputed Market Leader in DDoS Protection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是DDoS防护领域无可争议的市场领导者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5a18d2b88858258dd3212a23e6a41c4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DDoS and bot protection software market share worldwide as of Apr 21. Data source: Datanyze</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>截至4月21日，DDoS和bot防护软件的全球市场份额。数据来源：Datanyze</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Cloudflare started with “load balancing, firewalling, DDoS mitigation services” and the company is the undisputed worldwide market leader in DDoS protection with an 81.4% market share, the company has moved swiftly to extend its TAM to VPN and remote browser isolation service (through its S2 Systems Corporation acquisition in Jan 20), targeting these two markets with Cloudflare for Teams, and thebrowser isolation servicewhich can also be added on to its Teams product. However, its third TAM extension in which the company planned to “disrupt the corporate network and Multiprotocol Label Switching [MPLS]” through itsCloudflare Magic Transitproduct by protecting companies' on-premise data centers which saw the company entering to disrupt the highly lucrative stronghold of \"the Ciscos (CSCO) of this worlds and Fortinets (FTNT) and Check Points (CHKP) and Palo Altos (PANW) and Riverbeds.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然Cloudflare以“负载平衡、防火墙、DDoS缓解服务”起家，并且该公司是DDoS保护领域无可争议的全球市场领导者，拥有81.4%的市场份额，但该公司已迅速将其TAM扩展到VPN和远程浏览器隔离服务（通过1月20日收购S 2 Systems Corporation），通过Cloudflare for Teams和浏览器隔离服务瞄准这两个市场，该服务也可以添加到其Teams产品中。然而，在其第三次TAM扩展中，该公司计划通过其Cloudflare Magic Transit产品通过保护公司的内部数据中心来“破坏企业网络和多协议标签交换[MPLS]”，这使得该公司进入并破坏了利润丰厚的据点“这个世界的思科(CSCO)和Fortinets(FTNT)和Check Points(CHKP)以及Palo Altos(PANW)和Riverbeds。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, investors should be able to clearly appreciate the extremely high scalability of Cloudflare’s business model and its ambitions to take on the market’s biggest on-premise security players in their home ground. Magic Transit will be a key player in the company’s penetration of its enterprise segment as “the MPLS spend is a significant dollar item in the budgets of our customers” would help the company to build up its enterprise segment which has been growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者应该能够清楚地认识到Cloudflare商业模式极高的可扩展性，以及其在本土与市场上最大的本地安全参与者竞争的雄心。Magic Transit将成为该公司渗透其企业部门的关键参与者，因为“MPLS支出是我们客户预算中的一个重要项目”将有助于该公司建立其快速增长的企业部门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapidly Expanding Enterprise Segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速扩张的企业板块</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa220975bc1c2c02ff1e97a20a87a09d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Large / Enterprise customers trend. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>大型/企业客户趋势。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company has certainly made tremendous inroads into the enterprise segment, which is now the company’s “fastest growing business”. While it may seem like its 945 enterprise customers as of Q1'21 (this segment has grown at a CAGR of 69% from Q1’18), pales in comparison to its customer total of 119,206, this segment now represents the majority of the company’s revenue as Cloudflare highlighted: “This is now 50%, a little bit more than 50% of our revenue.” In fact, the chart alone would not do full justice to the company’s ability in penetrating this segment as the larger paying customers within the enterprise segment have been growing even faster, as Cloudflare further added: “Let's look at customers that give us more than $500,000 or even more than $1 million a year, the larger the cohort, the faster the growth. So our largest cohort, so $1 million-plus customers, has been growing north of 70% now consistently over last the 7 quarters”</p><p><blockquote>该公司无疑在企业领域取得了巨大进展，这现在是该公司“增长最快的业务”。虽然截至21年第一季度，其945家企业客户（该细分市场较18年第一季度的复合年增长率为69%）与其119,206家客户总数相比显得相形见绌，但该细分市场现在代表了该公司的大部分正如Cloudflare所强调的那样：“现在是我们收入的50%，略高于50%。”事实上，仅靠图表并不能完全公正地反映该公司渗透该细分市场的能力，因为企业细分市场中较大的付费客户增长更快，正如Cloudflare进一步补充的那样：“让我们看看为我们提供超过50万美元的客户每年甚至超过100万美元，群体越大，增长越快。因此，我们最大的群体，即100万美元以上的客户，在过去7个季度中一直保持70%以上的增长”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expansion of Products Helps to Sustain its DBNRR</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品扩张有助于维持其DBNRR</b></blockquote></p><p> While investors may have been inundated with the number or scope of products or services that the company has been offering to its customers, Cloudflare highlighted that in fact, “first of all, the more products we have, the easier expansion becomes.” The company has of course been mindful of building products that provide significant value to its customers and have seen its customers move up the product adoption ladder rapidly over the years.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可能被该公司向客户提供的产品或服务的数量或范围淹没，但Cloudflare强调，事实上，“首先，我们拥有的产品越多，扩张就越容易。”当然，该公司一直注重打造为客户提供重大价值的产品，并看到客户多年来在产品采用阶梯上迅速提升。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company attaches a \"magic number\" to its customers’ product adoption: 4 products per customer. It emphasized that while at IPO 70% of its customers were using 4 products each, “that number has now moved far beyond 80%. And now more than 70% of the customers are using 5 products. So with the increase in the product portfolio, we've been able to sell more products to existing customers”</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司为客户的产品采用率附加了一个“神奇数字”：每个客户4个产品。该公司强调，虽然IPO时70%的客户每人使用4种产品，但“这个数字现在已经远远超过80%。现在超过70%的客户使用5种产品。因此，随着产品组合的增加，我们已经能够向现有客户销售更多产品”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc7b20c40180d118295622722286980\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Dollar-based Net Retention Rate [DBNRR]. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基于美元的净保留率[DBNRR]。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That has seen the company consistently maintaining its DBNRR over the years, while it posted its most impressive DBNRR of 123% over the last 3 years in Q1’21. While its DBNRR is in line with its SaaS peers median of 120%, we are confident that the company would continue to maintain a consistently high level of DBNRR as more and more of its customers adopt more products moving forward, “and with that, [leading to] the stickiness of the product and [having] the churn rates come down.”</p><p><blockquote>多年来，该公司一直保持其DBNRR，而在21年第一季度公布了过去3年中最令人印象深刻的DBNRR 123%。虽然其DBNRR与SaaS同行120%的中位数一致，但我们相信，随着越来越多的客户采用更多产品，该公司将继续保持一贯的高DBNRR水平，“因此，[导致]产品的粘性和流失率下降。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare was Never Designed as a CDN</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare从未被设计为CDN</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors often compared Cloudflare to Fastly (FSLY) as competitors in the content-delivery networks (CDN) space. While we think NET certainly competes in that space with FSLY, the company specifically wanted to remind investors that:</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者经常将Cloudflare与Fastly(FSLY)进行比较，作为内容交付网络(CDN)领域的竞争对手。虽然我们认为NET在这一领域肯定会与FSLY竞争，但该公司特别想提醒投资者：</blockquote></p><p> We were never designed as a CDN. We had to provide CDN-like functionalities in order to deliver security and performance-based products and services at the edge of our network. But CDN was a means to achieve that, but not the business model in itself. We are pricing our products differently. We have no usage -- or hardly any usage-based pricings. Even today, less than a low single digit of our revenue is variable billing-based. And of that, less than 1/3 is really bandwidth-driven. We had recently highlighted in an article on FSLY and reminded investors that FSLY is not your typical SaaS model, as the company mainly derives its revenue from usage, rather than subscriptions. On the other hand, NET derives the majority of its revenue from subscriptions, and therefore the revenue model driving their respective businesses is entirely different.</p><p><blockquote>我们从未被设计成CDN。我们必须提供类似CDN的功能，以便在网络边缘提供基于安全性和性能的产品和服务。但CDN是实现这一目标的一种手段，而不是商业模式本身。我们对产品的定价不同。我们没有使用量，或者几乎没有任何基于使用量的定价。即使在今天，我们的收入中也只有不到一位数是基于可变计费的。其中，不到1/3是真正由带宽驱动的。我们最近在一篇关于FSLY的文章中强调并提醒投资者，FSLY不是典型的SaaS模式，因为该公司的收入主要来自使用，而不是订阅。另一方面，NET的大部分收入来自订阅，因此推动各自业务的收入模式完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, the unpredictable bandwidth cost of usage-based model was one of the key reasons why NET chose not to adopt a usage-based revenue model as the company wanted to focus on driving down costs for its customers with an offering that bills in a “predictable and reliable way”. Cloudflare’s priority would then turn to finding ways to “drive the cost of bandwidth to close to 0 over time” by making sure its “software-defined network could allow any server anywhere in our network to run any different function that we did and to be able to shift traffic around to deliver a level of efficiency that no one else has.”</p><p><blockquote>事实上，基于使用情况的模式不可预测的带宽成本是NET选择不采用基于使用情况的收入模式的关键原因之一，因为该公司希望专注于通过以“可预测和可靠的方式”计费的产品来降低客户的成本。然后，Cloudflare的优先事项将转向寻找“随着时间的推移将带宽成本提高到接近0”的方法，确保其“软件定义的网络可以允许我们网络中任何地方的任何服务器运行我们所做的任何不同功能，并能够转移流量，以提供其他人没有的效率水平。”</blockquote></p><p> CEO Matthew Prince also succinctly added:</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官马修·普林斯也简洁地补充道：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And so where I think a typical CDN company worries about things like how many people are going to tune into the Super Bowl and is the new show on Disney+ going to be popular or not, I spend my days worrying about what are the new cyber threats coming out of Russia or Iran, around the world and how do we stay in front of those. And so again, just completely different businesses. Therefore, investors could be assured that those type of usage volatility that FSLY had endured whenever they lost a major customer like we saw inTikTokis unlikely to happen to NET, simply because Cloudflare doesn’t bill by usage, and therefore providing the kind or revenue visibility that we have come to expect of typical SaaS companies.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为典型的CDN公司会担心有多少人会收看超级碗以及Disney+上的新节目是否会受欢迎，而我则整天担心来自俄罗斯或伊朗以及世界各地的新网络威胁是什么，以及我们如何保持在这些威胁面前。同样，完全不同的业务。因此，投资者可以放心，FSLY在失去像我们在TikTokis中看到的那样的主要客户时所经历的使用量波动不太可能发生在NET上，因为Cloudflare不按使用量计费，因此提供了我们对典型SaaS公司的期望。</blockquote></p><p> However, Cloudflare’s subscriptions-based revenue model is not without its inherent disadvantage as compared to FSLY’s usage-based billing model whenever there’s a huge surge in its customers’ usage, like what the company experienced last year during the throes of the pandemic:</p><p><blockquote>然而，与FSLY基于使用量的计费模式相比，每当客户使用量大幅增加时，Cloudflare基于订阅的收入模式并非没有固有的劣势，就像该公司去年在大流行阵痛期间所经历的那样：</blockquote></p><p> All of a sudden, we saw this dramatic uptick and a dramatic spike in the amount of bandwidth that people were using across our services. And unlike traditional CDNs, we couldn't just pass those costs on to our customers. And so those actually, I think, were pretty substantial headwinds to us, and I'm proud of our team for really adjusting, solving customers' problems, focusing on expanding our existing customers and making them bigger customers and getting more efficient over time. And so I think that what were headwinds for us are turning into tailwinds now, where we're seeing the sort of bandwidth usage plateauing, which is attractive for kind of our cost side of our business. <b>Cloudflare's Excellent Margins</b></p><p><blockquote>突然之间，我们看到人们在我们的服务中使用的带宽数量急剧上升和激增。与传统CDN不同，我们不能将这些成本转嫁给客户。因此，我认为，这些实际上对我们来说是相当大的阻力，我为我们的团队真正调整、解决客户问题、专注于扩大现有客户并使他们成为更大的客户并随着时间的推移提高效率感到自豪。因此，我认为我们的阻力现在正在变成顺风，我们看到带宽使用趋于稳定，这对于我们业务的成本方面来说很有吸引力。<b>Cloudflare出色的利润率</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dc84122254553246848c5eee09615d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>NET and FSLY Gross margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净利润和FSLY毛利率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the company had to deal with the dramatic increased bandwidth costs that its subscriptions model wasn’t designed for in the first place last year, it had still managed to maintain its gross margins consistently north of 75% over time, which easily outperformed FSLY’s usage-based revenue model. We believe the company’s full suite of networking products has helped the company to strongly diversify its revenue base, which lends further credence to the superb execution of the company’s business model across multiple markets and industry verticals, strengthening its revenue resilience against any unexpected slowdown or unanticipated costs surge. If investors were to coin Cloudflare as a “Jack of all trades”, we think it may be apt to call it a “master of all” as well.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司去年不得不应对其订阅模式最初并不是为其设计的带宽成本急剧增加的问题，但随着时间的推移，它仍然设法将毛利率始终保持在75%以上，这轻松超过了FSLY的使用基于收入模式。我们相信，该公司的全套网络产品帮助该公司实现了收入基础的强劲多元化，这进一步证明了该公司在多个市场和垂直行业的业务模式的出色执行，增强了其收入抵御任何意外放缓或意外成本激增的能力。如果投资者将Cloudflare称为“万事通”，我们认为看涨期权也可能倾向于将其称为“万事通”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expected to Turn EBIT and FCF Profitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预计息税前利润和自由现金流将实现盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f441756caaca11d36431b00ab64f090\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"678\"><span>NET projected revenue mean consensus and projected YoY revenue growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净预计收入意味着共识和预计同比收入增长。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec9b55dc6e235a1304a54224c0f90b7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET projected EBIT margin and projected unlevered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净预计息税前利润率和预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though NET has yet to achieve FCF and EBIT profitability, the company has guided for a long-term operating margin of 20%, which in our model we think is highly achievable over time as we projected the company to achieve an EBIT margin of 15.7% by the end of FY 25 especially when the company is still expected to post rapid revenue growth north of 30% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管NET尚未实现FCF和EBIT盈利能力，但该公司的长期营业利润率为20%，在我们的模型中，我们认为随着时间的推移，这是非常可以实现的，因为我们预计该公司将实现EBIT利润率到25财年末将达到15.7%，特别是预计该公司未来几年收入仍将实现30%以上的快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c617eade5b53ed1383b6438691464f52\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET LTM SG&A margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM SG&A净利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our confidence is mainly predicated on the sustained improvement in operating leverage that the company has been demonstrating in its SG&A margins, which has been the company’s largest operating expense segment. We believe that the company is likely to maintain this improvement moving forward that would cascade down strongly to its EBIT margins and move the company towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Therefore, the party is surely just getting started for NET.</p><p><blockquote>我们的信心主要基于公司在SG&A利润率方面表现出的运营杠杆的持续改善，SG&A利润率一直是公司最大的运营费用部门。我们认为，该公司可能会继续保持这种改善，这将极大地影响其息税前利润率，并使公司在未来几年内实现息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。因此，对于NET来说，聚会肯定才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> Valuations are Compelling If Execution is Sustained</p><p><blockquote>如果持续执行，估值将令人信服</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c991d9200f0424a6c2739f78335a667e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"726\"><span>NET EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净EV/Fwd Rev.数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81c5bc076bc34bcc9135201909e8028\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NET NTM (TEV / Rev).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净NTM（TEV/Rev）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While we continue to applaud NET’s superb business model and world-class execution, we are aware that this is unlikely to be lost among astute market participants. Therefore, we were not surprised to observe NET’s EV / FY+1 Rev is valued at 52x, while its mean is about 35.5x over the last one year. Based on our calculations of NET’s expected revenue growth rate in the next few years, we derived an expected share price 4Y CAGR of 19.66%, even at the current price level, representing potentially market-beating returns in the years ahead, if the company is able to maintain its excellent execution track record and achieve its growth targets.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们继续称赞NET卓越的商业模式和世界级的执行力，但我们意识到这一点不太可能在精明的市场参与者中消失。因此，我们并不惊讶地观察到NET的EV/FY+1 Rev值为52倍，而过去一年的平均值约为35.5倍。根据我们对NET未来几年预期收入增长率的计算，即使在当前价格水平下，我们得出的预期股价4年复合年增长率为19.66%，这意味着如果公司能够保持其出色的执行记录并实现其增长目标，未来几年的回报可能会跑赢市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52ff2c1614d64bd26c28b2b3c0c17488\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"442\"><span>Projected FY 25 share price and projected 4Y CAGR. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>预计25财年股价和预计4年复合年增长率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5eac1f8292520dd62f2d5c23328a0a9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"783\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we were somewhat fortunate to enter our full position in NET at about $30 last Sep, based on the current price action, we don’t think there is any optimal entry point for new investors right now, even if we think that based on the current price level, NET would likely continue to outperform the market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们有些幸运地在去年9月以约30美元的价格进入了NET的全部头寸，但根据当前的价格走势，我们认为目前对于新投资者来说没有任何最佳的切入点，即使我们认为基于当前的价格水平，NET可能会继续跑赢市场。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we would encourage investors who consider price action in their decision-making to wait for a retracement first, while investors who do not consider price action may enter now if they have high conviction of NET’s execution in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们鼓励在决策中考虑价格行为的投资者先等待回撤，而不考虑价格行为的投资者如果对NET未来几年的执行力有很高的信心，可以现在就进入。</blockquote></p><p> While we would not add more positions at the current price level, we would surely keep the stock on our watchlist to consider increasing our exposure at the next retracement.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不会在当前价格水平下增加更多头寸，但我们肯定会将该股票保留在我们的观察名单上，以考虑在下一次回调时增加我们的敞口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare has been a true outperformer for its investors since its IPO in 2019, and we think that the company’s growth story has barely just begun as it moves towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Investors in NET are encouraged to sit tight and enjoy many years of solid growth to come.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年首次公开募股以来，Cloudflare一直是投资者真正的跑赢者，我们认为该公司的增长故事才刚刚开始，因为它将在未来几年实现息税前利润和自由现金流盈利。我们鼓励NET的投资者按兵不动，享受未来多年的稳健增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare Is Much More Scalable Than You Think<blockquote>Cloudflare的可扩展性比您想象的要高得多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare Is Much More Scalable Than You Think<blockquote>Cloudflare的可扩展性比您想象的要高得多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 16:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>We think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.</li> <li>While Cloudflare operates in the Content Delivery Networks space, it has never positioned itself as a CDN player.</li> <li>We present a clearer view of what Cloudflare represents, in order for investors to more appropriately appreciate the high scalability of the company’s business model.</li> <li>While we think Cloudflare is primed for outperformance even at the current price level, we would prefer to add further only at the next retracement.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd63105e871f3b7086e6743081853b5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\"><span>Steve Jennings/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们认为投资者还没有很好地理解Cloudflare的商业模式。</li><li>虽然Cloudflare在内容交付网络领域运营，但它从未将自己定位为CDN参与者。</li><li>我们更清楚地了解Cloudflare所代表的内容，以便投资者更恰当地了解该公司业务模式的高度可扩展性。</li><li>虽然我们认为即使在当前的价格水平下，Cloudflare也有望表现出色，但我们更希望仅在下一次回调时进一步增持。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>史蒂夫·詹宁斯/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Cloudflare's Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Cloudflare的业务模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare (NET) has come to be known as many things to different investors. We have seen investors classifying Cloudflare as a cloud or web security company, or a content delivery network [CDN], or an identity access management [IAM] company. The fact is, while Cloudflare is involved in all of those, the company actually has a much larger scale of operation. Cloudflare sees itself as “a networking company”, that “you have to think about [Cloudflare] almost like Cisco-as-a-service. Anything where you would have bought and acquired hardware on-premise, whether it's firewalls, routers, load balancers, VPNs, we offer this as a service from our network. And this network is masked by now.”</p><p><blockquote>不同的投资者对Cloudflare(NET)有很多了解。我们看到投资者将Cloudflare归类为云或网络安全公司，或内容交付网络[CDN]，或身份访问管理[IAM]公司。事实是，虽然Cloudflare参与了所有这些，但该公司实际上拥有更大的运营规模。Cloudflare将自己视为“一家网络公司”，“你必须像思科即服务一样思考[Cloudflare]。您可以在内部购买和获取硬件的任何东西，无论是防火墙、路由器、负载平衡器、VPN，我们都通过我们的网络提供服务。这个网络现在被屏蔽了。”</blockquote></p><p> In fact, CEO Matthew Prince emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，首席执行官Matthew Prince强调：</blockquote></p><p> So the reason that we picked the ticker symbol NET was because, fundamentally, what it is that we sell is the network that you plug into and then you don't have to worry about anything else. And so that's what we want to deliver. And so a piece of that is you want to make sure you have a fast network. A piece of that is you want to make sure you have a reliable network. But a big piece of that is you want to make sure that you have a network which is helping you solve the security problems that you have. We think that one of the key reasons that Cloudflare wanted investors to clearly understand the company's scope of business is to allow investors to have the appropriate strategic view of the company’s still-expanding TAM, which the company highlighted has been expanding since its IPO in 2019. Although the company started with a TAM of $37B in 2019, which then saw it being revised upwards to $72B, and now the company is looking at a TAM of $100B over the next 3 years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们选择股票代码NET的原因是，从根本上说，我们销售的是您插入的网络，然后您不必担心其他任何事情。这就是我们想要提供的。其中一部分是你要确保你有一个快速的网络。其中一部分是你要确保你有一个可靠的网络。但其中很大一部分是你要确保你有一个网络来帮助你解决你的安全问题。我们认为，Cloudflare希望投资者清楚了解公司业务范围的关键原因之一是让投资者对公司仍在扩张的TAM有适当的战略看法，该公司强调自2019年IPO以来一直在扩张。尽管该公司在2019年开始时的TAM为370亿美元，随后上调至720亿美元，现在该公司正在考虑未来3年的TAM为1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is the Undisputed Market Leader in DDoS Protection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是DDoS防护领域无可争议的市场领导者</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5a18d2b88858258dd3212a23e6a41c4\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>DDoS and bot protection software market share worldwide as of Apr 21. Data source: Datanyze</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>截至4月21日，DDoS和bot防护软件的全球市场份额。数据来源：Datanyze</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Cloudflare started with “load balancing, firewalling, DDoS mitigation services” and the company is the undisputed worldwide market leader in DDoS protection with an 81.4% market share, the company has moved swiftly to extend its TAM to VPN and remote browser isolation service (through its S2 Systems Corporation acquisition in Jan 20), targeting these two markets with Cloudflare for Teams, and thebrowser isolation servicewhich can also be added on to its Teams product. However, its third TAM extension in which the company planned to “disrupt the corporate network and Multiprotocol Label Switching [MPLS]” through itsCloudflare Magic Transitproduct by protecting companies' on-premise data centers which saw the company entering to disrupt the highly lucrative stronghold of \"the Ciscos (CSCO) of this worlds and Fortinets (FTNT) and Check Points (CHKP) and Palo Altos (PANW) and Riverbeds.\"</p><p><blockquote>虽然Cloudflare以“负载平衡、防火墙、DDoS缓解服务”起家，并且该公司是DDoS保护领域无可争议的全球市场领导者，拥有81.4%的市场份额，但该公司已迅速将其TAM扩展到VPN和远程浏览器隔离服务（通过1月20日收购S 2 Systems Corporation），通过Cloudflare for Teams和浏览器隔离服务瞄准这两个市场，该服务也可以添加到其Teams产品中。然而，在其第三次TAM扩展中，该公司计划通过其Cloudflare Magic Transit产品通过保护公司的内部数据中心来“破坏企业网络和多协议标签交换[MPLS]”，这使得该公司进入并破坏了利润丰厚的据点“这个世界的思科(CSCO)和Fortinets(FTNT)和Check Points(CHKP)以及Palo Altos(PANW)和Riverbeds。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, investors should be able to clearly appreciate the extremely high scalability of Cloudflare’s business model and its ambitions to take on the market’s biggest on-premise security players in their home ground. Magic Transit will be a key player in the company’s penetration of its enterprise segment as “the MPLS spend is a significant dollar item in the budgets of our customers” would help the company to build up its enterprise segment which has been growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者应该能够清楚地认识到Cloudflare商业模式极高的可扩展性，以及其在本土与市场上最大的本地安全参与者竞争的雄心。Magic Transit将成为该公司渗透其企业部门的关键参与者，因为“MPLS支出是我们客户预算中的一个重要项目”将有助于该公司建立其快速增长的企业部门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapidly Expanding Enterprise Segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速扩张的企业板块</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa220975bc1c2c02ff1e97a20a87a09d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Large / Enterprise customers trend. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>大型/企业客户趋势。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company has certainly made tremendous inroads into the enterprise segment, which is now the company’s “fastest growing business”. While it may seem like its 945 enterprise customers as of Q1'21 (this segment has grown at a CAGR of 69% from Q1’18), pales in comparison to its customer total of 119,206, this segment now represents the majority of the company’s revenue as Cloudflare highlighted: “This is now 50%, a little bit more than 50% of our revenue.” In fact, the chart alone would not do full justice to the company’s ability in penetrating this segment as the larger paying customers within the enterprise segment have been growing even faster, as Cloudflare further added: “Let's look at customers that give us more than $500,000 or even more than $1 million a year, the larger the cohort, the faster the growth. So our largest cohort, so $1 million-plus customers, has been growing north of 70% now consistently over last the 7 quarters”</p><p><blockquote>该公司无疑在企业领域取得了巨大进展，这现在是该公司“增长最快的业务”。虽然截至21年第一季度，其945家企业客户（该细分市场较18年第一季度的复合年增长率为69%）与其119,206家客户总数相比显得相形见绌，但该细分市场现在代表了该公司的大部分正如Cloudflare所强调的那样：“现在是我们收入的50%，略高于50%。”事实上，仅靠图表并不能完全公正地反映该公司渗透该细分市场的能力，因为企业细分市场中较大的付费客户增长更快，正如Cloudflare进一步补充的那样：“让我们看看为我们提供超过50万美元的客户每年甚至超过100万美元，群体越大，增长越快。因此，我们最大的群体，即100万美元以上的客户，在过去7个季度中一直保持70%以上的增长”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expansion of Products Helps to Sustain its DBNRR</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品扩张有助于维持其DBNRR</b></blockquote></p><p> While investors may have been inundated with the number or scope of products or services that the company has been offering to its customers, Cloudflare highlighted that in fact, “first of all, the more products we have, the easier expansion becomes.” The company has of course been mindful of building products that provide significant value to its customers and have seen its customers move up the product adoption ladder rapidly over the years.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可能被该公司向客户提供的产品或服务的数量或范围淹没，但Cloudflare强调，事实上，“首先，我们拥有的产品越多，扩张就越容易。”当然，该公司一直注重打造为客户提供重大价值的产品，并看到客户多年来在产品采用阶梯上迅速提升。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company attaches a \"magic number\" to its customers’ product adoption: 4 products per customer. It emphasized that while at IPO 70% of its customers were using 4 products each, “that number has now moved far beyond 80%. And now more than 70% of the customers are using 5 products. So with the increase in the product portfolio, we've been able to sell more products to existing customers”</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司为客户的产品采用率附加了一个“神奇数字”：每个客户4个产品。该公司强调，虽然IPO时70%的客户每人使用4种产品，但“这个数字现在已经远远超过80%。现在超过70%的客户使用5种产品。因此，随着产品组合的增加，我们已经能够向现有客户销售更多产品”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc7b20c40180d118295622722286980\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Dollar-based Net Retention Rate [DBNRR]. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基于美元的净保留率[DBNRR]。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That has seen the company consistently maintaining its DBNRR over the years, while it posted its most impressive DBNRR of 123% over the last 3 years in Q1’21. While its DBNRR is in line with its SaaS peers median of 120%, we are confident that the company would continue to maintain a consistently high level of DBNRR as more and more of its customers adopt more products moving forward, “and with that, [leading to] the stickiness of the product and [having] the churn rates come down.”</p><p><blockquote>多年来，该公司一直保持其DBNRR，而在21年第一季度公布了过去3年中最令人印象深刻的DBNRR 123%。虽然其DBNRR与SaaS同行120%的中位数一致，但我们相信，随着越来越多的客户采用更多产品，该公司将继续保持一贯的高DBNRR水平，“因此，[导致]产品的粘性和流失率下降。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare was Never Designed as a CDN</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare从未被设计为CDN</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors often compared Cloudflare to Fastly (FSLY) as competitors in the content-delivery networks (CDN) space. While we think NET certainly competes in that space with FSLY, the company specifically wanted to remind investors that:</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者经常将Cloudflare与Fastly(FSLY)进行比较，作为内容交付网络(CDN)领域的竞争对手。虽然我们认为NET在这一领域肯定会与FSLY竞争，但该公司特别想提醒投资者：</blockquote></p><p> We were never designed as a CDN. We had to provide CDN-like functionalities in order to deliver security and performance-based products and services at the edge of our network. But CDN was a means to achieve that, but not the business model in itself. We are pricing our products differently. We have no usage -- or hardly any usage-based pricings. Even today, less than a low single digit of our revenue is variable billing-based. And of that, less than 1/3 is really bandwidth-driven. We had recently highlighted in an article on FSLY and reminded investors that FSLY is not your typical SaaS model, as the company mainly derives its revenue from usage, rather than subscriptions. On the other hand, NET derives the majority of its revenue from subscriptions, and therefore the revenue model driving their respective businesses is entirely different.</p><p><blockquote>我们从未被设计成CDN。我们必须提供类似CDN的功能，以便在网络边缘提供基于安全性和性能的产品和服务。但CDN是实现这一目标的一种手段，而不是商业模式本身。我们对产品的定价不同。我们没有使用量，或者几乎没有任何基于使用量的定价。即使在今天，我们的收入中也只有不到一位数是基于可变计费的。其中，不到1/3是真正由带宽驱动的。我们最近在一篇关于FSLY的文章中强调并提醒投资者，FSLY不是典型的SaaS模式，因为该公司的收入主要来自使用，而不是订阅。另一方面，NET的大部分收入来自订阅，因此推动各自业务的收入模式完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, the unpredictable bandwidth cost of usage-based model was one of the key reasons why NET chose not to adopt a usage-based revenue model as the company wanted to focus on driving down costs for its customers with an offering that bills in a “predictable and reliable way”. Cloudflare’s priority would then turn to finding ways to “drive the cost of bandwidth to close to 0 over time” by making sure its “software-defined network could allow any server anywhere in our network to run any different function that we did and to be able to shift traffic around to deliver a level of efficiency that no one else has.”</p><p><blockquote>事实上，基于使用情况的模式不可预测的带宽成本是NET选择不采用基于使用情况的收入模式的关键原因之一，因为该公司希望专注于通过以“可预测和可靠的方式”计费的产品来降低客户的成本。然后，Cloudflare的优先事项将转向寻找“随着时间的推移将带宽成本提高到接近0”的方法，确保其“软件定义的网络可以允许我们网络中任何地方的任何服务器运行我们所做的任何不同功能，并能够转移流量，以提供其他人没有的效率水平。”</blockquote></p><p> CEO Matthew Prince also succinctly added:</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官马修·普林斯也简洁地补充道：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And so where I think a typical CDN company worries about things like how many people are going to tune into the Super Bowl and is the new show on Disney+ going to be popular or not, I spend my days worrying about what are the new cyber threats coming out of Russia or Iran, around the world and how do we stay in front of those. And so again, just completely different businesses. Therefore, investors could be assured that those type of usage volatility that FSLY had endured whenever they lost a major customer like we saw inTikTokis unlikely to happen to NET, simply because Cloudflare doesn’t bill by usage, and therefore providing the kind or revenue visibility that we have come to expect of typical SaaS companies.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为典型的CDN公司会担心有多少人会收看超级碗以及Disney+上的新节目是否会受欢迎，而我则整天担心来自俄罗斯或伊朗以及世界各地的新网络威胁是什么，以及我们如何保持在这些威胁面前。同样，完全不同的业务。因此，投资者可以放心，FSLY在失去像我们在TikTokis中看到的那样的主要客户时所经历的使用量波动不太可能发生在NET上，因为Cloudflare不按使用量计费，因此提供了我们对典型SaaS公司的期望。</blockquote></p><p> However, Cloudflare’s subscriptions-based revenue model is not without its inherent disadvantage as compared to FSLY’s usage-based billing model whenever there’s a huge surge in its customers’ usage, like what the company experienced last year during the throes of the pandemic:</p><p><blockquote>然而，与FSLY基于使用量的计费模式相比，每当客户使用量大幅增加时，Cloudflare基于订阅的收入模式并非没有固有的劣势，就像该公司去年在大流行阵痛期间所经历的那样：</blockquote></p><p> All of a sudden, we saw this dramatic uptick and a dramatic spike in the amount of bandwidth that people were using across our services. And unlike traditional CDNs, we couldn't just pass those costs on to our customers. And so those actually, I think, were pretty substantial headwinds to us, and I'm proud of our team for really adjusting, solving customers' problems, focusing on expanding our existing customers and making them bigger customers and getting more efficient over time. And so I think that what were headwinds for us are turning into tailwinds now, where we're seeing the sort of bandwidth usage plateauing, which is attractive for kind of our cost side of our business. <b>Cloudflare's Excellent Margins</b></p><p><blockquote>突然之间，我们看到人们在我们的服务中使用的带宽数量急剧上升和激增。与传统CDN不同，我们不能将这些成本转嫁给客户。因此，我认为，这些实际上对我们来说是相当大的阻力，我为我们的团队真正调整、解决客户问题、专注于扩大现有客户并使他们成为更大的客户并随着时间的推移提高效率感到自豪。因此，我认为我们的阻力现在正在变成顺风，我们看到带宽使用趋于稳定，这对于我们业务的成本方面来说很有吸引力。<b>Cloudflare出色的利润率</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dc84122254553246848c5eee09615d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"727\"><span>NET and FSLY Gross margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净利润和FSLY毛利率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the company had to deal with the dramatic increased bandwidth costs that its subscriptions model wasn’t designed for in the first place last year, it had still managed to maintain its gross margins consistently north of 75% over time, which easily outperformed FSLY’s usage-based revenue model. We believe the company’s full suite of networking products has helped the company to strongly diversify its revenue base, which lends further credence to the superb execution of the company’s business model across multiple markets and industry verticals, strengthening its revenue resilience against any unexpected slowdown or unanticipated costs surge. If investors were to coin Cloudflare as a “Jack of all trades”, we think it may be apt to call it a “master of all” as well.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司去年不得不应对其订阅模式最初并不是为其设计的带宽成本急剧增加的问题，但随着时间的推移，它仍然设法将毛利率始终保持在75%以上，这轻松超过了FSLY的使用基于收入模式。我们相信，该公司的全套网络产品帮助该公司实现了收入基础的强劲多元化，这进一步证明了该公司在多个市场和垂直行业的业务模式的出色执行，增强了其收入抵御任何意外放缓或意外成本激增的能力。如果投资者将Cloudflare称为“万事通”，我们认为看涨期权也可能倾向于将其称为“万事通”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expected to Turn EBIT and FCF Profitable</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预计息税前利润和自由现金流将实现盈利</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f441756caaca11d36431b00ab64f090\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"678\"><span>NET projected revenue mean consensus and projected YoY revenue growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净预计收入意味着共识和预计同比收入增长。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec9b55dc6e235a1304a54224c0f90b7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET projected EBIT margin and projected unlevered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净预计息税前利润率和预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though NET has yet to achieve FCF and EBIT profitability, the company has guided for a long-term operating margin of 20%, which in our model we think is highly achievable over time as we projected the company to achieve an EBIT margin of 15.7% by the end of FY 25 especially when the company is still expected to post rapid revenue growth north of 30% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管NET尚未实现FCF和EBIT盈利能力，但该公司的长期营业利润率为20%，在我们的模型中，我们认为随着时间的推移，这是非常可以实现的，因为我们预计该公司将实现EBIT利润率到25财年末将达到15.7%，特别是预计该公司未来几年收入仍将实现30%以上的快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c617eade5b53ed1383b6438691464f52\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"711\"><span>NET LTM SG&A margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LTM SG&A净利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our confidence is mainly predicated on the sustained improvement in operating leverage that the company has been demonstrating in its SG&A margins, which has been the company’s largest operating expense segment. We believe that the company is likely to maintain this improvement moving forward that would cascade down strongly to its EBIT margins and move the company towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Therefore, the party is surely just getting started for NET.</p><p><blockquote>我们的信心主要基于公司在SG&A利润率方面表现出的运营杠杆的持续改善，SG&A利润率一直是公司最大的运营费用部门。我们认为，该公司可能会继续保持这种改善，这将极大地影响其息税前利润率，并使公司在未来几年内实现息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力。因此，对于NET来说，聚会肯定才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> Valuations are Compelling If Execution is Sustained</p><p><blockquote>如果持续执行，估值将令人信服</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c991d9200f0424a6c2739f78335a667e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"726\"><span>NET EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净EV/Fwd Rev.数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81c5bc076bc34bcc9135201909e8028\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NET NTM (TEV / Rev).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>净NTM（TEV/Rev）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While we continue to applaud NET’s superb business model and world-class execution, we are aware that this is unlikely to be lost among astute market participants. Therefore, we were not surprised to observe NET’s EV / FY+1 Rev is valued at 52x, while its mean is about 35.5x over the last one year. Based on our calculations of NET’s expected revenue growth rate in the next few years, we derived an expected share price 4Y CAGR of 19.66%, even at the current price level, representing potentially market-beating returns in the years ahead, if the company is able to maintain its excellent execution track record and achieve its growth targets.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们继续称赞NET卓越的商业模式和世界级的执行力，但我们意识到这一点不太可能在精明的市场参与者中消失。因此，我们并不惊讶地观察到NET的EV/FY+1 Rev值为52倍，而过去一年的平均值约为35.5倍。根据我们对NET未来几年预期收入增长率的计算，即使在当前价格水平下，我们得出的预期股价4年复合年增长率为19.66%，这意味着如果公司能够保持其出色的执行记录并实现其增长目标，未来几年的回报可能会跑赢市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52ff2c1614d64bd26c28b2b3c0c17488\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"442\"><span>Projected FY 25 share price and projected 4Y CAGR. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>预计25财年股价和预计4年复合年增长率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5eac1f8292520dd62f2d5c23328a0a9\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"783\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we were somewhat fortunate to enter our full position in NET at about $30 last Sep, based on the current price action, we don’t think there is any optimal entry point for new investors right now, even if we think that based on the current price level, NET would likely continue to outperform the market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们有些幸运地在去年9月以约30美元的价格进入了NET的全部头寸，但根据当前的价格走势，我们认为目前对于新投资者来说没有任何最佳的切入点，即使我们认为基于当前的价格水平，NET可能会继续跑赢市场。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we would encourage investors who consider price action in their decision-making to wait for a retracement first, while investors who do not consider price action may enter now if they have high conviction of NET’s execution in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们鼓励在决策中考虑价格行为的投资者先等待回撤，而不考虑价格行为的投资者如果对NET未来几年的执行力有很高的信心，可以现在就进入。</blockquote></p><p> While we would not add more positions at the current price level, we would surely keep the stock on our watchlist to consider increasing our exposure at the next retracement.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不会在当前价格水平下增加更多头寸，但我们肯定会将该股票保留在我们的观察名单上，以考虑在下一次回调时增加我们的敞口。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare has been a true outperformer for its investors since its IPO in 2019, and we think that the company’s growth story has barely just begun as it moves towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Investors in NET are encouraged to sit tight and enjoy many years of solid growth to come.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年首次公开募股以来，Cloudflare一直是投资者真正的跑赢者，我们认为该公司的增长故事才刚刚开始，因为它将在未来几年实现息税前利润和自由现金流盈利。我们鼓励NET的投资者按兵不动，享受未来多年的稳健增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437171-cloudflare-is-much-more-scalable-than-you-think\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437171-cloudflare-is-much-more-scalable-than-you-think","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181301986","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe think Cloudflare’s business model has not been well understood by investors.\nWhile Cloudflare operates in the Content Delivery Networks space, it has never positioned itself as a CDN player.\nWe present a clearer view of what Cloudflare represents, in order for investors to more appropriately appreciate the high scalability of the company’s business model.\nWhile we think Cloudflare is primed for outperformance even at the current price level, we would prefer to add further only at the next retracement.\n\nSteve Jennings/Getty Images Entertainment\nUnderstanding Cloudflare's Business Model\nCloudflare (NET) has come to be known as many things to different investors. We have seen investors classifying Cloudflare as a cloud or web security company, or a content delivery network [CDN], or an identity access management [IAM] company. The fact is, while Cloudflare is involved in all of those, the company actually has a much larger scale of operation. Cloudflare sees itself as “a networking company”, that “you have to think about [Cloudflare] almost like Cisco-as-a-service. Anything where you would have bought and acquired hardware on-premise, whether it's firewalls, routers, load balancers, VPNs, we offer this as a service from our network. And this network is masked by now.”\nIn fact, CEO Matthew Prince emphasized:\n\n So the reason that we picked the ticker symbol NET was because, fundamentally, what it is that we sell is the network that you plug into and then you don't have to worry about anything else. And so that's what we want to deliver. And so a piece of that is you want to make sure you have a fast network. A piece of that is you want to make sure you have a reliable network. But a big piece of that is you want to make sure that you have a network which is helping you solve the security problems that you have.\n\nWe think that one of the key reasons that Cloudflare wanted investors to clearly understand the company's scope of business is to allow investors to have the appropriate strategic view of the company’s still-expanding TAM, which the company highlighted has been expanding since its IPO in 2019. Although the company started with a TAM of $37B in 2019, which then saw it being revised upwards to $72B, and now the company is looking at a TAM of $100B over the next 3 years.\nCloudflare is the Undisputed Market Leader in DDoS Protection\nDDoS and bot protection software market share worldwide as of Apr 21. Data source: Datanyze\nWhile Cloudflare started with “load balancing, firewalling, DDoS mitigation services” and the company is the undisputed worldwide market leader in DDoS protection with an 81.4% market share, the company has moved swiftly to extend its TAM to VPN and remote browser isolation service (through its S2 Systems Corporation acquisition in Jan 20), targeting these two markets with Cloudflare for Teams, and thebrowser isolation servicewhich can also be added on to its Teams product. However, its third TAM extension in which the company planned to “disrupt the corporate network and Multiprotocol Label Switching [MPLS]” through itsCloudflare Magic Transitproduct by protecting companies' on-premise data centers which saw the company entering to disrupt the highly lucrative stronghold of \"the Ciscos (CSCO) of this worlds and Fortinets (FTNT) and Check Points (CHKP) and Palo Altos (PANW) and Riverbeds.\"\nTherefore, investors should be able to clearly appreciate the extremely high scalability of Cloudflare’s business model and its ambitions to take on the market’s biggest on-premise security players in their home ground. Magic Transit will be a key player in the company’s penetration of its enterprise segment as “the MPLS spend is a significant dollar item in the budgets of our customers” would help the company to build up its enterprise segment which has been growing rapidly.\nRapidly Expanding Enterprise Segment\nLarge / Enterprise customers trend. Data source: Company filings\nThe company has certainly made tremendous inroads into the enterprise segment, which is now the company’s “fastest growing business”. While it may seem like its 945 enterprise customers as of Q1'21 (this segment has grown at a CAGR of 69% from Q1’18), pales in comparison to its customer total of 119,206, this segment now represents the majority of the company’s revenue as Cloudflare highlighted: “This is now 50%, a little bit more than 50% of our revenue.” In fact, the chart alone would not do full justice to the company’s ability in penetrating this segment as the larger paying customers within the enterprise segment have been growing even faster, as Cloudflare further added: “Let's look at customers that give us more than $500,000 or even more than $1 million a year, the larger the cohort, the faster the growth. So our largest cohort, so $1 million-plus customers, has been growing north of 70% now consistently over last the 7 quarters”\nExpansion of Products Helps to Sustain its DBNRR\nWhile investors may have been inundated with the number or scope of products or services that the company has been offering to its customers, Cloudflare highlighted that in fact, “first of all, the more products we have, the easier expansion becomes.” The company has of course been mindful of building products that provide significant value to its customers and have seen its customers move up the product adoption ladder rapidly over the years.\nImportantly, the company attaches a \"magic number\" to its customers’ product adoption: 4 products per customer. It emphasized that while at IPO 70% of its customers were using 4 products each, “that number has now moved far beyond 80%. And now more than 70% of the customers are using 5 products. So with the increase in the product portfolio, we've been able to sell more products to existing customers”\nDollar-based Net Retention Rate [DBNRR]. Data source: Company filings\nThat has seen the company consistently maintaining its DBNRR over the years, while it posted its most impressive DBNRR of 123% over the last 3 years in Q1’21. While its DBNRR is in line with its SaaS peers median of 120%, we are confident that the company would continue to maintain a consistently high level of DBNRR as more and more of its customers adopt more products moving forward, “and with that, [leading to] the stickiness of the product and [having] the churn rates come down.”\nCloudflare was Never Designed as a CDN\nMany investors often compared Cloudflare to Fastly (FSLY) as competitors in the content-delivery networks (CDN) space. While we think NET certainly competes in that space with FSLY, the company specifically wanted to remind investors that:\n\n We were never designed as a CDN. We had to provide CDN-like functionalities in order to deliver security and performance-based products and services at the edge of our network. But CDN was a means to achieve that, but not the business model in itself. We are pricing our products differently. We have no usage -- or hardly any usage-based pricings. Even today, less than a low single digit of our revenue is variable billing-based. And of that, less than 1/3 is really bandwidth-driven.\n\nWe had recently highlighted in an article on FSLY and reminded investors that FSLY is not your typical SaaS model, as the company mainly derives its revenue from usage, rather than subscriptions. On the other hand, NET derives the majority of its revenue from subscriptions, and therefore the revenue model driving their respective businesses is entirely different.\nIn fact, the unpredictable bandwidth cost of usage-based model was one of the key reasons why NET chose not to adopt a usage-based revenue model as the company wanted to focus on driving down costs for its customers with an offering that bills in a “predictable and reliable way”. Cloudflare’s priority would then turn to finding ways to “drive the cost of bandwidth to close to 0 over time” by making sure its “software-defined network could allow any server anywhere in our network to run any different function that we did and to be able to shift traffic around to deliver a level of efficiency that no one else has.”\nCEO Matthew Prince also succinctly added:\n\n And so where I think a typical CDN company worries about things like how many people are going to tune into the Super Bowl and is the new show on Disney+ going to be popular or not, I spend my days worrying about what are the new cyber threats coming out of Russia or Iran, around the world and how do we stay in front of those. And so again, just completely different businesses.\n\nTherefore, investors could be assured that those type of usage volatility that FSLY had endured whenever they lost a major customer like we saw inTikTokis unlikely to happen to NET, simply because Cloudflare doesn’t bill by usage, and therefore providing the kind or revenue visibility that we have come to expect of typical SaaS companies.\nHowever, Cloudflare’s subscriptions-based revenue model is not without its inherent disadvantage as compared to FSLY’s usage-based billing model whenever there’s a huge surge in its customers’ usage, like what the company experienced last year during the throes of the pandemic:\n\n All of a sudden, we saw this dramatic uptick and a dramatic spike in the amount of bandwidth that people were using across our services. And unlike traditional CDNs, we couldn't just pass those costs on to our customers. And so those actually, I think, were pretty substantial headwinds to us, and I'm proud of our team for really adjusting, solving customers' problems, focusing on expanding our existing customers and making them bigger customers and getting more efficient over time. And so I think that what were headwinds for us are turning into tailwinds now, where we're seeing the sort of bandwidth usage plateauing, which is attractive for kind of our cost side of our business.\n\nCloudflare's Excellent Margins\nNET and FSLY Gross margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company had to deal with the dramatic increased bandwidth costs that its subscriptions model wasn’t designed for in the first place last year, it had still managed to maintain its gross margins consistently north of 75% over time, which easily outperformed FSLY’s usage-based revenue model. We believe the company’s full suite of networking products has helped the company to strongly diversify its revenue base, which lends further credence to the superb execution of the company’s business model across multiple markets and industry verticals, strengthening its revenue resilience against any unexpected slowdown or unanticipated costs surge. If investors were to coin Cloudflare as a “Jack of all trades”, we think it may be apt to call it a “master of all” as well.\nExpected to Turn EBIT and FCF Profitable\nNET projected revenue mean consensus and projected YoY revenue growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNET projected EBIT margin and projected unlevered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though NET has yet to achieve FCF and EBIT profitability, the company has guided for a long-term operating margin of 20%, which in our model we think is highly achievable over time as we projected the company to achieve an EBIT margin of 15.7% by the end of FY 25 especially when the company is still expected to post rapid revenue growth north of 30% in the years ahead.\nNET LTM SG&A margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nOur confidence is mainly predicated on the sustained improvement in operating leverage that the company has been demonstrating in its SG&A margins, which has been the company’s largest operating expense segment. We believe that the company is likely to maintain this improvement moving forward that would cascade down strongly to its EBIT margins and move the company towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. Therefore, the party is surely just getting started for NET.\nValuations are Compelling If Execution is Sustained\nNET EV / Fwd Rev. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNET NTM (TEV / Rev).\nWhile we continue to applaud NET’s superb business model and world-class execution, we are aware that this is unlikely to be lost among astute market participants. Therefore, we were not surprised to observe NET’s EV / FY+1 Rev is valued at 52x, while its mean is about 35.5x over the last one year. Based on our calculations of NET’s expected revenue growth rate in the next few years, we derived an expected share price 4Y CAGR of 19.66%, even at the current price level, representing potentially market-beating returns in the years ahead, if the company is able to maintain its excellent execution track record and achieve its growth targets.\nProjected FY 25 share price and projected 4Y CAGR. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nSource: TradingView\nWhile we were somewhat fortunate to enter our full position in NET at about $30 last Sep, based on the current price action, we don’t think there is any optimal entry point for new investors right now, even if we think that based on the current price level, NET would likely continue to outperform the market.\nTherefore, we would encourage investors who consider price action in their decision-making to wait for a retracement first, while investors who do not consider price action may enter now if they have high conviction of NET’s execution in the next few years.\nWhile we would not add more positions at the current price level, we would surely keep the stock on our watchlist to consider increasing our exposure at the next retracement.\nWrapping It All Up\nCloudflare has been a true outperformer for its investors since its IPO in 2019, and we think that the company’s growth story has barely just begun as it moves towards EBIT and FCF profitability in the next few years. 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