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MrHuattt

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2022-02-13

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2022-02-07

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2022-02-06

//@MrHuattt: Hhhh

2022 Could be a Success or a Lost Opportunity for Novavax<blockquote>2022年对于Novavax来说可能是成功也可能是失去的机会</blockquote>

2022-02-06

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2022 Could be a Success or a Lost Opportunity for Novavax<blockquote>2022年对于Novavax来说可能是成功也可能是失去的机会</blockquote>

2022-02-06

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Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote>

2022-02-03

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2022-02-02

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2022-02-01

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2022-02-01

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2022-01-29

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开盘：新能源汽车股普跌，苹果高开逾4%

2022-01-28

$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$ cup and handle formation, prepare to loaddd

2022-01-27

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2022-01-26

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2022-01-26

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2022-01-25

$Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH)(ETHE)$Why can't I trade this? @ Tiger Brokers

2022-01-23

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2022-01-22

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2022-01-22

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2022-01-21

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ triple tops. So bearish.

2022-01-19

$ISDN HOLDINGS LIMITED(I07.SI)$ support broken how low will it go

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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(NASDAQ:NVAX) has had a tough year with losses of approximately 68%. It has already declined about 37% year-to-date, as well. However, as of Feb. 3, 2022, the stock has a 5-day return of...</p><p><blockquote><div>Novavax，Inc.（纳斯达克：NVAX）经历了艰难的一年，亏损约68%。今年迄今为止，该指数也已下降约37%。然而，截至2022年2月3日，该股的5天回报率为……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022 Could be a Success or a Lost Opportunity for Novavax<blockquote>2022年对于Novavax来说可能是成功也可能是失去的机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022 Could be a Success or a Lost Opportunity for Novavax<blockquote>2022年对于Novavax来说可能是成功也可能是失去的机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-05 14:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) has had a tough year with losses of approximately 68%. It has already declined about 37% year-to-date, as well. However, as of Feb. 3, 2022, the stock has a 5-day return of...</p><p><blockquote><div>Novavax，Inc.（纳斯达克：NVAX）经历了艰难的一年，亏损约68%。今年迄今为止，该指数也已下降约37%。然而，截至2022年2月3日，该股的5天回报率为……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130580421","content_text":"Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) has had a tough year with losses of approximately 68%. It has already declined about 37% year-to-date, as well. However, as of Feb. 3, 2022, the stock has a 5-day return of nearly 25%. This increased volatility in the stock price is primarily news-driven.Novavax is trying to become active in the global industry of vaccines against the coronavirus to put an end to the pandemic so all of us can return to normal conditions at which social distancing will be a distant memory, along with wearing face masks.Novavax Business NewsThe latest business news is that Novavax got conditional authorization in the U.K for its protein-based Covid-19 vaccine called Nuvaxovid. It is reported that “the U.K. has already ordered up to 60 million doses of Novavax’s vaccine.”The company announced that it filed for authorization in the U.S. market in late Jan. 2022. Novavax has been granted provisional registration for its vaccine in Australia. Additionally, in South Korea, the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety has approved the firm’s vaccine. At the same time the “European Commission (EC) has granted Novavax conditional marketing authorization (CMA) for Nuvaxovid™ COVID-19 Vaccine (recombinant, adjuvanted) for active immunization to prevent COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in individuals 18 years of age and older.”Novavax also submitted for emergency use authorization of its vaccine in South Africa.A lot of this news is a catalyst for NVAX stock. The greatest impact on the stock probably would be U.S. market approval for Nuvaxovid. Investors waiting for further positive news are already building a bull case for Novavax.Bullish Scenario for NVAX StockNovavax’s vaccine is the fifth vaccine approved by the E.U. Protein vaccines like Nuvaxovid can do a lot for the global vaccination campaign. This is because they work differently from the vaccines currently available in the E.U., which are based on either mRNA technology, such as Pfizer and Moderna, or viral vector technology, such as AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson.If unvaccinated people are not biased against vaccination to protect from Covid-19, they could soon be vaccinated with protein vaccines such as Nuvaxovid. Such protein vaccines have been used for decades to protect against polio, tetanus, hepatitis B, and the flu. They also offer very good protection against coronavirus and cause even fewer side effects than vaccines that are already approved.Also, these vaccines are important. Richer countries are so preoccupied with booster vaccinations and closing vaccination gaps that they may forget that in poor countries very few people have been vaccinated.Protein-based vaccines could also make a significant contribution to the market. They are relatively inexpensive to produce and can be transported and stored at 2° to 8° C much more easily than mRNA vaccines, which need to be frozen.Novavax will first supply its vaccine in poorer countries like Africa. The Novavax vaccine is a combination vaccine that is said to protect against the coronavirus and the flu at the same time. According to Novavax, initially,100 million doses of the vaccine could be produced per month. They later expect to be able to produce 150 million doses of the vaccine per month.Europe being supplied with Nuvaxovid is certainly big news for Novavax. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may become biased and send the green light for the biotechnology company to boost its sales, especially if its price is cheaper than other vaccines.Bearish Case for NVAX StockThird quarter (Q3) 2021 financial results showed a year-over-year increase of 14% for revenue to $179 million and a 38% increase of total expenses to $486 million. Loss from operations widened to $307 million compared to a loss of $194 million in Q3 2020. Net loss also widened to $322 million compared to a net loss of $197 million in Q3 2020.The firm has poor financial strength as the debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio of 0.70 is considered high for a money-losing business that has been burning cash over the past five consecutive years.Another negative sign for NVAX stock is that shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 137.4%.Novavax: At an Inflection Point NowThe company has positive news that sparks enthusiasm. The broader fundamental analysis, however, is not supportive of the company. Widening losses and burning cash must be addressed fast and radically for a stock price rebound to occur and last.I remain bearish on NVAX stock, waiting for sales updates as the key catalyst.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633234699,"gmtCreate":1644108910459,"gmtModify":1644108910743,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089116574465250","idStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633234699","repostId":"1130580421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130580421","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644040812,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130580421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-05 14:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2022 Could be a Success or a Lost Opportunity for Novavax<blockquote>2022年对于Novavax来说可能是成功也可能是失去的机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130580421","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Novavax can either generate a boost of sales or lose an opportunity in the industry of vaccines against coronavirus","content":"<p><div> Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) has had a tough year with losses of approximately 68%. It has already declined about 37% year-to-date, as well. However, as of Feb. 3, 2022, the stock has a 5-day return of...</p><p><blockquote><div>Novavax，Inc.（纳斯达克：NVAX）经历了艰难的一年，亏损约68%。今年迄今为止，该指数也已下降约37%。然而，截至2022年2月3日，该股的5天回报率为……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022 Could be a Success or a Lost Opportunity for Novavax<blockquote>2022年对于Novavax来说可能是成功也可能是失去的机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022 Could be a Success or a Lost Opportunity for Novavax<blockquote>2022年对于Novavax来说可能是成功也可能是失去的机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-05 14:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) has had a tough year with losses of approximately 68%. It has already declined about 37% year-to-date, as well. However, as of Feb. 3, 2022, the stock has a 5-day return of...</p><p><blockquote><div>Novavax，Inc.（纳斯达克：NVAX）经历了艰难的一年，亏损约68%。今年迄今为止，该指数也已下降约37%。然而，截至2022年2月3日，该股的5天回报率为……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/2022-could-be-a-success-or-a-lost-opportunity-for-novavax/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130580421","content_text":"Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) has had a tough year with losses of approximately 68%. It has already declined about 37% year-to-date, as well. However, as of Feb. 3, 2022, the stock has a 5-day return of nearly 25%. This increased volatility in the stock price is primarily news-driven.Novavax is trying to become active in the global industry of vaccines against the coronavirus to put an end to the pandemic so all of us can return to normal conditions at which social distancing will be a distant memory, along with wearing face masks.Novavax Business NewsThe latest business news is that Novavax got conditional authorization in the U.K for its protein-based Covid-19 vaccine called Nuvaxovid. It is reported that “the U.K. has already ordered up to 60 million doses of Novavax’s vaccine.”The company announced that it filed for authorization in the U.S. market in late Jan. 2022. Novavax has been granted provisional registration for its vaccine in Australia. Additionally, in South Korea, the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety has approved the firm’s vaccine. At the same time the “European Commission (EC) has granted Novavax conditional marketing authorization (CMA) for Nuvaxovid™ COVID-19 Vaccine (recombinant, adjuvanted) for active immunization to prevent COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in individuals 18 years of age and older.”Novavax also submitted for emergency use authorization of its vaccine in South Africa.A lot of this news is a catalyst for NVAX stock. The greatest impact on the stock probably would be U.S. market approval for Nuvaxovid. Investors waiting for further positive news are already building a bull case for Novavax.Bullish Scenario for NVAX StockNovavax’s vaccine is the fifth vaccine approved by the E.U. Protein vaccines like Nuvaxovid can do a lot for the global vaccination campaign. This is because they work differently from the vaccines currently available in the E.U., which are based on either mRNA technology, such as Pfizer and Moderna, or viral vector technology, such as AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson.If unvaccinated people are not biased against vaccination to protect from Covid-19, they could soon be vaccinated with protein vaccines such as Nuvaxovid. Such protein vaccines have been used for decades to protect against polio, tetanus, hepatitis B, and the flu. They also offer very good protection against coronavirus and cause even fewer side effects than vaccines that are already approved.Also, these vaccines are important. Richer countries are so preoccupied with booster vaccinations and closing vaccination gaps that they may forget that in poor countries very few people have been vaccinated.Protein-based vaccines could also make a significant contribution to the market. They are relatively inexpensive to produce and can be transported and stored at 2° to 8° C much more easily than mRNA vaccines, which need to be frozen.Novavax will first supply its vaccine in poorer countries like Africa. The Novavax vaccine is a combination vaccine that is said to protect against the coronavirus and the flu at the same time. According to Novavax, initially,100 million doses of the vaccine could be produced per month. They later expect to be able to produce 150 million doses of the vaccine per month.Europe being supplied with Nuvaxovid is certainly big news for Novavax. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may become biased and send the green light for the biotechnology company to boost its sales, especially if its price is cheaper than other vaccines.Bearish Case for NVAX StockThird quarter (Q3) 2021 financial results showed a year-over-year increase of 14% for revenue to $179 million and a 38% increase of total expenses to $486 million. Loss from operations widened to $307 million compared to a loss of $194 million in Q3 2020. Net loss also widened to $322 million compared to a net loss of $197 million in Q3 2020.The firm has poor financial strength as the debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio of 0.70 is considered high for a money-losing business that has been burning cash over the past five consecutive years.Another negative sign for NVAX stock is that shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 137.4%.Novavax: At an Inflection Point NowThe company has positive news that sparks enthusiasm. The broader fundamental analysis, however, is not supportive of the company. Widening losses and burning cash must be addressed fast and radically for a stock price rebound to occur and last.I remain bearish on NVAX stock, waiting for sales updates as the key catalyst.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633294665,"gmtCreate":1644078199963,"gmtModify":1644078200275,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089116574465250","idStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"h","listText":"h","text":"h","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633294665","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196927717?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir总共只有203名客户，而其中只有20名客户占总收入的58%。</li><li>与2020年相比，2021年前三季度Palantir核心客户群的年化收入增长放缓至20%。</li><li>2021年，Palantir从根本上改变了其上市战略。该公司目前正在利用其现金积极投资同意购买Palantir软件的其他公司（被投资方）。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售额增长30%。然而，Palantir的三阶段业务模式暗示，不包括其被投资方的销售额，销售额呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir提供了非凡的长期增长潜力，这应该使其成为所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>agawa288/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>我给予Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）中性风险/回报评级，因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，一些值得注意的危险信号值得谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险/回报评级：中性</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><blockquote>与企业软件领域的同行相比，Palantir在获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类：（1）收购、（2）扩张和（3）规模。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语，但由于该公司对待客户的方式，它们在Palantir的情况下是独一无二的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户详细信息</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底收入低于100,000美元且对Palantir无利可图的客户。扩展群组的特点是一个销售额超过100,000美元但仍未盈利的客户。最后，规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元收入且具有盈利关系的客户。</blockquote></p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p><blockquote>下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。第一个表显示了Palantir在2020年底分类的每个客户群体的2020年销售额（2020年收入）。在2021年年化栏中，您会发现这些2020年客户群到2021年第三季度的年化销售额。在第二组表格中，我汇编了过去12个月Palantir最大客户的关键详细信息，以及与2021年Palantir新客户相关的关键详细信息，这些客户尚未分配到某个群组。队列分类在每年年底进行。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>为了便于比较，我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群，以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户，前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote></p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，Palantir最大的客户属于规模群体。到2021年前三季度，规模队列（2020年底分类）以20%的年化速度增长。鉴于该群体占Palantir收入的86%，如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速，将销售增长率大幅提高到20%以上将具有挑战性。应该指出的是，管理层指导到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p><blockquote>上表中以黄色突出显示了2020年底收购和扩展队列。在年终Palantir报告发布之前，2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据，以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩（不包括对被投资方的销售）是可持续的核心增长率。被投资方的客户获取策略非常不寻常，具有极高的资本风险，从而引入声誉风险，从而引入品牌风险。</blockquote></p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，这里的被投资方是指Palantir使用Palantir的软件购买其股票以换取被投资方的客户。这意味着，来自被投资方的收入是Palantir投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面，这些不是公平交易。我认为，不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote></p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>与2021年规模群体的年化增长率20%类似，到2021年第三季度，新客户销售额的年化增长率为22%，而2020年收购和扩张群体的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较，但这是一个公平的估计。因此，Palantir的基本销售增长率似乎倾向于接近20%，而不是该公司到十年中期30%的销售增长指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>被投资方</b></blockquote></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p><blockquote>退一步回顾Palantir对被投资方的投资非常重要，因为这是一种非常不寻常的获取客户的上市策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为20%，这让Palantir使用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金的方式有了新的认识。下表摘自Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了Palantir对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的回顾。共同的主题是，它们都是最受欢迎的成长板块中的早期公司。这些行业包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。似乎没有一家被投资方本身能够提供足够的升值潜力来大幅提高Palantir的估值。Palantir的持股比例为0.4%至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于Palantir的软件。此外，目前尚不清楚这些公司截至2021年第三季度的1900万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>我在blue中强调了Palantir对这七家公司的总投资为1.5亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir目前仅在这七家公司上就下跌了约6400万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险，因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司的投资，但是，Palantir没有透露细节。它们包含在Palantir资产负债表上的其他资产中，截至2021年第三季度，该资产总额为1.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了Palantir截至2021年第三季度投资新公司的承诺。我用黄色突出显示了Palantir在2021年第三季度末后资助的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至2021年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是在第三季度末之前完成的1.5亿美元的基础上完成的2.52亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司，但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。这意味着，与Palantir软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比，它们似乎具有极大的资本风险，但上涨潜力可能很小。需要注意的是，近期估值极端，继续快速收缩。因此，在VC/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也会增加资本损失的时间风险。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir最近的表现，我选择将销售增长视为不包括被投资方，因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。我通过去除被投资方的收入进行了调整，以得出净收入数字。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后2021年第三季度29%的收入增长。被投资公司第三季度增长了6.5%。年初至今，被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29%的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期30%的增长指导。请记住，随着Palantir投资承诺的额外资金，被投资方的收入流将会增长。无论如何，第三季度的增长率迅速放缓至29%，而不包括这些非公平销售，今年迄今的增长率为41%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>地理和细分市场销售</b></blockquote></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p><blockquote>销售放缓是由法国主导的，2021年前三个季度收缩了22%（下面用橙色突出显示）。应该指出的是，Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说，这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家，但正如下面蓝色突出显示的单元格所证明的那样，增长正在迅速放缓。该表根据Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告编制。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p><blockquote>除法国外，世界其他地区也在迅速放缓，从今年前9个月的45%降至2021年第三季度的20%。请注意，这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住，被投资方收入包含在下图中，并为商业部门第三季度增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，商业部门的收入增长相当稳定，不包括被投资方收入，增长约29%。然而，政府部门正在迅速减速，从2021年前9个月的57%降至第三季度的34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利及关键绩效指标</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不同寻常的客户获取策略早于转向被投资方。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与其他公司的销售成本非常相似。之所以如此，是因为Palantir为潜在客户提供免费的试点计划，而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发，以产生销售。以下引用2021年第三季度10-Q总结了情况：</blockquote></p><p>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、股票薪酬费用以及我们的销售人员和参与执行试点和客户增长活动的人员的福利...因此，我认为Palantir的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本和毛利率的降低。虽然这种分类不会影响底线，但它确实有助于将报告的78%毛利率置于背景中。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这种对销售和营销费用的看法有助于思考Palantir相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖毛利率的相对估值。下表根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制，显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关股票薪酬费用进行调整的报告收入成本以及销售和营销费用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，与2021年前9个月的59%（以黄色突出显示）相比，第三季度调整后的毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%（在表格下部以蓝色突出显示）。与今年前九个月相比，2021年第三季度的销售成本迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息，称为贡献率。它与我上面调整后的毛利率数据类似，如下表所示，该表是根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，贡献行与上表中调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外，生长速率减速是相似的，如在突出显示的细胞中可以看到的。虽然37%与我估计的25%增长有很大不同，但低于64%的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote></p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营业收入</b></blockquote></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p><blockquote>谈到营业收入，我再次调整了报告的数据，剔除了股票期权相关费用以及与2020年直接上市IPO相关的一次性费用。最重要的信息再次是快速减速。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用，以及我调整后的运营收入估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>在表格的下半部分，请注意2021年第三季度调整后营业收入令人难以置信地减速至40%的增长，而今年前9个月的增长为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速增加，而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资，仅增长了5%。</blockquote></p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响，因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应该通过三个客户阶段来跟踪销售周期：获取、扩展和规模化。随着销售和营销部门确定客户需求，研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这似乎没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir调整后的年化营业收入运行率约为300至3.2亿美元，即每股约0.16美元。这是税前营业收入数字。营业收入方面的主要结论是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不同寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共识增长估计</b></blockquote></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的调整后年营业收入运行率为3.2亿美元，并且按25%的正常化税率征税，则当前的盈利能力将在2.4亿美元范围内，即稀释后每股0.12美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长减速，我们可以开始将普遍的盈利预测置于背景中。下表根据Seeking Alpha编制，显示了到2023年的普遍盈利和收入预测。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。创建者：Brian Kapp，stoxdox</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p><blockquote>我强调了对2022年盈利和销售增长的普遍预期。请注意，2022年39%的普遍盈利增长预期与2021年第三季度40%的营业收入增长一致。此外，30%的销售增长预期略高于2021年第三季度29%的调整后销售增长（不包括对被投资方的销售）。</blockquote></p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于2021年第三季度营业收入迅速放缓至40%，而今年前9个月的营业收入为266%，预计2022年39%的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使2022年的盈利增长率远低于39%。</blockquote></p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Palantir对随后购买Palantir软件的被投资方采取了积极的投资策略，2022年30%的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样对被投资方的销售打折。排除这些销售，2022年收入增长轨迹似乎接近20%，而不是30%，这为进一步的增长失望打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>从2023年的共识预测来看，预期增长率与2022年非常相似。这种到2023年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明，2022年和2023年的增长将大幅低于预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易价格是2021年普遍盈利预期的87倍，是2022年普遍盈利预期的62倍。请记住，这些是非GAAP（公认会计原则）盈利预测。根据公认会计准则，Palantir继续亏损生产。报告的2021年第三季度亏损为9200万美元，2021年前9个月亏损为3.52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>使用非公认会计准则盈利预测，从历史市场角度来看，87倍的本年度盈利和62倍的预期盈利是极端估值。也就是说，它们是近年来成长型股票的可能性范围内的。考虑到Palantir迅速放缓的销售和营业收入增长率，以及共识估计可能过高的风险增加，目前共识估计的估值倍数几乎没有出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>在销售方面，Palantir的估值是2021年普遍收入预期的17倍，是2022年的13倍。从历史角度来看，对于大盘股公司来说，这些是极端的市销率倍数。我对核心销售增长趋势为20%（不包括被投资方收入）的估计表明，这些销售估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote></p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><blockquote>再加上营业收入增长迅速放缓，估值风险进一步上升。此外，从我截至2021年第三季度调整后的毛利率增长25%可以看出，Palantir的商业模式可能不支持历史上极端的市销率估值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小，超额回报潜力减弱，但技术设置表明更有意义的上行回报潜力。下面的3年周线图提供了潜在技术回报谱的鸟瞰图。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位，用绿线突出了主要支撑位。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Palantir 3年周线图。（由Brian Kapp使用Barchart.com的图表创建）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>最近阻力位19美元和22美元的回报潜力分别为43%和65%。下行方面，最近的支撑位于10美元附近的IPO价格区间。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是，Palantir 16个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外，由于没有低于IPO价格的交易历史，尚不清楚如果向下突破10美元水平，将在哪里找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计低于10美元的下行潜力，我采用了2022年非GAAP共识盈利预测的40倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍，Palantir股价将达到8美元。这意味着较当前水平的下行风险为-40%。</blockquote></p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p><blockquote>如果2022年39%的普遍盈利预期过高，则有可能从8美元进一步下跌。如果估计过高，为了估计潜在的下行风险，我将相同的40倍非GAAP收益应用于Palantir当前完全纳税、非GAAP盈利能力的年运行率估计。如果2022年盈利增长率为25%（我对截至2021年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计），而我对当前调整后税后盈利年增长率的估计为0.12美元，那么该股的交易价格可能会跌至6美元。这意味着下行风险为-55%。</blockquote></p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>下面的日线图详细介绍了技术背景。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>技术面显示19美元至22美元之间存在较大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下跌趋势，近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说，上行的技术潜力与下行的基本面潜力相结合，使该股在短期内具有65%至-55%的平衡潜在回报范围。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Palantir应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，由于出现了明显的危险信号，因此需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-05 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir总共只有203名客户，而其中只有20名客户占总收入的58%。</li><li>与2020年相比，2021年前三季度Palantir核心客户群的年化收入增长放缓至20%。</li><li>2021年，Palantir从根本上改变了其上市战略。该公司目前正在利用其现金积极投资同意购买Palantir软件的其他公司（被投资方）。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售额增长30%。然而，Palantir的三阶段业务模式暗示，不包括其被投资方的销售额，销售额呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir提供了非凡的长期增长潜力，这应该使其成为所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>agawa288/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>我给予Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）中性风险/回报评级，因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，一些值得注意的危险信号值得谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险/回报评级：中性</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><blockquote>与企业软件领域的同行相比，Palantir在获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类：（1）收购、（2）扩张和（3）规模。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语，但由于该公司对待客户的方式，它们在Palantir的情况下是独一无二的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户详细信息</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底收入低于100,000美元且对Palantir无利可图的客户。扩展群组的特点是一个销售额超过100,000美元但仍未盈利的客户。最后，规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元收入且具有盈利关系的客户。</blockquote></p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p><blockquote>下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。第一个表显示了Palantir在2020年底分类的每个客户群体的2020年销售额（2020年收入）。在2021年年化栏中，您会发现这些2020年客户群到2021年第三季度的年化销售额。在第二组表格中，我汇编了过去12个月Palantir最大客户的关键详细信息，以及与2021年Palantir新客户相关的关键详细信息，这些客户尚未分配到某个群组。队列分类在每年年底进行。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>为了便于比较，我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群，以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户，前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote></p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，Palantir最大的客户属于规模群体。到2021年前三季度，规模队列（2020年底分类）以20%的年化速度增长。鉴于该群体占Palantir收入的86%，如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速，将销售增长率大幅提高到20%以上将具有挑战性。应该指出的是，管理层指导到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p><blockquote>上表中以黄色突出显示了2020年底收购和扩展队列。在年终Palantir报告发布之前，2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据，以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩（不包括对被投资方的销售）是可持续的核心增长率。被投资方的客户获取策略非常不寻常，具有极高的资本风险，从而引入声誉风险，从而引入品牌风险。</blockquote></p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，这里的被投资方是指Palantir使用Palantir的软件购买其股票以换取被投资方的客户。这意味着，来自被投资方的收入是Palantir投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面，这些不是公平交易。我认为，不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote></p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>与2021年规模群体的年化增长率20%类似，到2021年第三季度，新客户销售额的年化增长率为22%，而2020年收购和扩张群体的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较，但这是一个公平的估计。因此，Palantir的基本销售增长率似乎倾向于接近20%，而不是该公司到十年中期30%的销售增长指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>被投资方</b></blockquote></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p><blockquote>退一步回顾Palantir对被投资方的投资非常重要，因为这是一种非常不寻常的获取客户的上市策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为20%，这让Palantir使用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金的方式有了新的认识。下表摘自Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了Palantir对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的回顾。共同的主题是，它们都是最受欢迎的成长板块中的早期公司。这些行业包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。似乎没有一家被投资方本身能够提供足够的升值潜力来大幅提高Palantir的估值。Palantir的持股比例为0.4%至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于Palantir的软件。此外，目前尚不清楚这些公司截至2021年第三季度的1900万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>我在blue中强调了Palantir对这七家公司的总投资为1.5亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir目前仅在这七家公司上就下跌了约6400万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险，因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司的投资，但是，Palantir没有透露细节。它们包含在Palantir资产负债表上的其他资产中，截至2021年第三季度，该资产总额为1.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了Palantir截至2021年第三季度投资新公司的承诺。我用黄色突出显示了Palantir在2021年第三季度末后资助的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至2021年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是在第三季度末之前完成的1.5亿美元的基础上完成的2.52亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司，但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。这意味着，与Palantir软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比，它们似乎具有极大的资本风险，但上涨潜力可能很小。需要注意的是，近期估值极端，继续快速收缩。因此，在VC/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也会增加资本损失的时间风险。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir最近的表现，我选择将销售增长视为不包括被投资方，因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。我通过去除被投资方的收入进行了调整，以得出净收入数字。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后2021年第三季度29%的收入增长。被投资公司第三季度增长了6.5%。年初至今，被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29%的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期30%的增长指导。请记住，随着Palantir投资承诺的额外资金，被投资方的收入流将会增长。无论如何，第三季度的增长率迅速放缓至29%，而不包括这些非公平销售，今年迄今的增长率为41%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>地理和细分市场销售</b></blockquote></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p><blockquote>销售放缓是由法国主导的，2021年前三个季度收缩了22%（下面用橙色突出显示）。应该指出的是，Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说，这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家，但正如下面蓝色突出显示的单元格所证明的那样，增长正在迅速放缓。该表根据Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告编制。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p><blockquote>除法国外，世界其他地区也在迅速放缓，从今年前9个月的45%降至2021年第三季度的20%。请注意，这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住，被投资方收入包含在下图中，并为商业部门第三季度增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，商业部门的收入增长相当稳定，不包括被投资方收入，增长约29%。然而，政府部门正在迅速减速，从2021年前9个月的57%降至第三季度的34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利及关键绩效指标</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不同寻常的客户获取策略早于转向被投资方。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与其他公司的销售成本非常相似。之所以如此，是因为Palantir为潜在客户提供免费的试点计划，而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发，以产生销售。以下引用2021年第三季度10-Q总结了情况：</blockquote></p><p>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、股票薪酬费用以及我们的销售人员和参与执行试点和客户增长活动的人员的福利...因此，我认为Palantir的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本和毛利率的降低。虽然这种分类不会影响底线，但它确实有助于将报告的78%毛利率置于背景中。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这种对销售和营销费用的看法有助于思考Palantir相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖毛利率的相对估值。下表根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制，显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关股票薪酬费用进行调整的报告收入成本以及销售和营销费用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，与2021年前9个月的59%（以黄色突出显示）相比，第三季度调整后的毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%（在表格下部以蓝色突出显示）。与今年前九个月相比，2021年第三季度的销售成本迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息，称为贡献率。它与我上面调整后的毛利率数据类似，如下表所示，该表是根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，贡献行与上表中调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外，生长速率减速是相似的，如在突出显示的细胞中可以看到的。虽然37%与我估计的25%增长有很大不同，但低于64%的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote></p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营业收入</b></blockquote></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p><blockquote>谈到营业收入，我再次调整了报告的数据，剔除了股票期权相关费用以及与2020年直接上市IPO相关的一次性费用。最重要的信息再次是快速减速。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用，以及我调整后的运营收入估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>在表格的下半部分，请注意2021年第三季度调整后营业收入令人难以置信地减速至40%的增长，而今年前9个月的增长为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速增加，而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资，仅增长了5%。</blockquote></p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响，因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应该通过三个客户阶段来跟踪销售周期：获取、扩展和规模化。随着销售和营销部门确定客户需求，研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这似乎没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir调整后的年化营业收入运行率约为300至3.2亿美元，即每股约0.16美元。这是税前营业收入数字。营业收入方面的主要结论是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不同寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共识增长估计</b></blockquote></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的调整后年营业收入运行率为3.2亿美元，并且按25%的正常化税率征税，则当前的盈利能力将在2.4亿美元范围内，即稀释后每股0.12美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长减速，我们可以开始将普遍的盈利预测置于背景中。下表根据Seeking Alpha编制，显示了到2023年的普遍盈利和收入预测。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。创建者：Brian Kapp，stoxdox</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p><blockquote>我强调了对2022年盈利和销售增长的普遍预期。请注意，2022年39%的普遍盈利增长预期与2021年第三季度40%的营业收入增长一致。此外，30%的销售增长预期略高于2021年第三季度29%的调整后销售增长（不包括对被投资方的销售）。</blockquote></p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于2021年第三季度营业收入迅速放缓至40%，而今年前9个月的营业收入为266%，预计2022年39%的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使2022年的盈利增长率远低于39%。</blockquote></p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Palantir对随后购买Palantir软件的被投资方采取了积极的投资策略，2022年30%的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样对被投资方的销售打折。排除这些销售，2022年收入增长轨迹似乎接近20%，而不是30%，这为进一步的增长失望打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>从2023年的共识预测来看，预期增长率与2022年非常相似。这种到2023年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明，2022年和2023年的增长将大幅低于预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易价格是2021年普遍盈利预期的87倍，是2022年普遍盈利预期的62倍。请记住，这些是非GAAP（公认会计原则）盈利预测。根据公认会计准则，Palantir继续亏损生产。报告的2021年第三季度亏损为9200万美元，2021年前9个月亏损为3.52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>使用非公认会计准则盈利预测，从历史市场角度来看，87倍的本年度盈利和62倍的预期盈利是极端估值。也就是说，它们是近年来成长型股票的可能性范围内的。考虑到Palantir迅速放缓的销售和营业收入增长率，以及共识估计可能过高的风险增加，目前共识估计的估值倍数几乎没有出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>在销售方面，Palantir的估值是2021年普遍收入预期的17倍，是2022年的13倍。从历史角度来看，对于大盘股公司来说，这些是极端的市销率倍数。我对核心销售增长趋势为20%（不包括被投资方收入）的估计表明，这些销售估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote></p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><blockquote>再加上营业收入增长迅速放缓，估值风险进一步上升。此外，从我截至2021年第三季度调整后的毛利率增长25%可以看出，Palantir的商业模式可能不支持历史上极端的市销率估值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小，超额回报潜力减弱，但技术设置表明更有意义的上行回报潜力。下面的3年周线图提供了潜在技术回报谱的鸟瞰图。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位，用绿线突出了主要支撑位。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Palantir 3年周线图。（由Brian Kapp使用Barchart.com的图表创建）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>最近阻力位19美元和22美元的回报潜力分别为43%和65%。下行方面，最近的支撑位于10美元附近的IPO价格区间。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是，Palantir 16个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外，由于没有低于IPO价格的交易历史，尚不清楚如果向下突破10美元水平，将在哪里找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计低于10美元的下行潜力，我采用了2022年非GAAP共识盈利预测的40倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍，Palantir股价将达到8美元。这意味着较当前水平的下行风险为-40%。</blockquote></p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p><blockquote>如果2022年39%的普遍盈利预期过高，则有可能从8美元进一步下跌。如果估计过高，为了估计潜在的下行风险，我将相同的40倍非GAAP收益应用于Palantir当前完全纳税、非GAAP盈利能力的年运行率估计。如果2022年盈利增长率为25%（我对截至2021年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计），而我对当前调整后税后盈利年增长率的估计为0.12美元，那么该股的交易价格可能会跌至6美元。这意味着下行风险为-55%。</blockquote></p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>下面的日线图详细介绍了技术背景。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>技术面显示19美元至22美元之间存在较大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下跌趋势，近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说，上行的技术潜力与下行的基本面潜力相结合，使该股在短期内具有65%至-55%的平衡潜在回报范围。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Palantir应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，由于出现了明显的危险信号，因此需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral 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22:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘：新能源汽车股普跌，苹果高开逾4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109955708","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月28日，道琼斯指数开盘上涨20.91点，涨幅0.06%，报34181.69点；标普500指数开盘上涨11.72点，涨幅0.27%，报4338.22点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨84.1点，涨幅0.6","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月28日，道琼斯指数开盘上涨20.91点，涨幅0.06%，报34181.69点；标普500指数开盘上涨11.72点，涨幅0.27%，报4338.22点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨84.1点，涨幅0.63%，报13436.8点。</p><p>新能源汽车股普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌逾3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车跌超2%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>涨逾4%，公司第一财季营收1239.45亿美元，创有史以来最高的单季度营收。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>涨7.27%，Q1净营收71亿美元，同比增长24%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>跌6.17%，Q2净利润同比增长810%，但警告称供应链问题及疫情将影响近期业绩。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>跌3.59%，Q4同比扭亏为盈，但不及市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>跌3.4%，Q4业绩超出市场预期，但预计供应链限制将影响利润率。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">美国钢铁</a>涨2.64%，Q4销售额同比增长119.5%，预期2022年业绩表现强劲。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VFC\">威富集团</a>跌5.35%，Q3业绩不及市场预估，并略微下调全财年的销售指引。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WY\">惠好</a>涨1.43%，2021年实现净利润26亿美元，创纪录新高。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘：新能源汽车股普跌，苹果高开逾4%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：新能源汽车股普跌，苹果高开逾4%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-28 22:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月28日，道琼斯指数开盘上涨20.91点，涨幅0.06%，报34181.69点；标普500指数开盘上涨11.72点，涨幅0.27%，报4338.22点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨84.1点，涨幅0.63%，报13436.8点。</p><p>新能源汽车股普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌逾3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车跌超2%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>涨逾4%，公司第一财季营收1239.45亿美元，创有史以来最高的单季度营收。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>涨7.27%，Q1净营收71亿美元，同比增长24%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>跌6.17%，Q2净利润同比增长810%，但警告称供应链问题及疫情将影响近期业绩。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>跌3.59%，Q4同比扭亏为盈，但不及市场预期。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">卡特彼勒</a>跌3.4%，Q4业绩超出市场预期，但预计供应链限制将影响利润率。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">美国钢铁</a>涨2.64%，Q4销售额同比增长119.5%，预期2022年业绩表现强劲。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VFC\">威富集团</a>跌5.35%，Q3业绩不及市场预估，并略微下调全财年的销售指引。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WY\">惠好</a>涨1.43%，2021年实现净利润26亿美元，创纪录新高。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109955708","content_text":"1月28日，道琼斯指数开盘上涨20.91点，涨幅0.06%，报34181.69点；标普500指数开盘上涨11.72点，涨幅0.27%，报4338.22点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨84.1点，涨幅0.63%，报13436.8点。新能源汽车股普跌，小鹏汽车跌逾3%，蔚来汽车跌超2%。苹果涨逾4%，公司第一财季营收1239.45亿美元，创有史以来最高的单季度营收。Visa涨7.27%，Q1净营收71亿美元，同比增长24%。西部数据跌6.17%，Q2净利润同比增长810%，但警告称供应链问题及疫情将影响近期业绩。雪佛龙跌3.59%，Q4同比扭亏为盈，但不及市场预期。卡特彼勒跌3.4%，Q4业绩超出市场预期，但预计供应链限制将影响利润率。美国钢铁涨2.64%，Q4销售额同比增长119.5%，预期2022年业绩表现强劲。威富集团跌5.35%，Q3业绩不及市场预估，并略微下调全财年的销售指引。惠好涨1.43%，2021年实现净利润26亿美元，创纪录新高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639561895,"gmtCreate":1643353977079,"gmtModify":1643353977370,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089116574465250","idStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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So bearish.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a>&nbsp;triple tops. So bearish.&nbsp;","text":"$S&P 500(.SPX)$ triple tops. So bearish.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630321785","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697709094,"gmtCreate":1642578862568,"gmtModify":1642578883271,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089116574465250","idStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/I07.SI\">$ISDN HOLDINGS LIMITED(I07.SI)$</a>&nbsp;support broken how low will it go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/I07.SI\">$ISDN HOLDINGS LIMITED(I07.SI)$</a>&nbsp;support broken how low will it go","text":"$ISDN HOLDINGS LIMITED(I07.SI)$ support broken how low will it go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697709094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":850768007,"gmtCreate":1634628955823,"gmtModify":1634628956116,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089116574465250","authorIdStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T82U.SI\">$SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(T82U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;bought around sep. Will i be entitled to receive the dividend end of this month?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T82U.SI\">$SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(T82U.SI)$</a>&nbsp;bought around sep. Will i be entitled to receive the dividend end of this month?&nbsp;","text":"$SUNTEC REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(T82U.SI)$ bought around sep. Will i be entitled to receive the dividend end of this month?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850768007","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566385558470298","authorId":"3566385558470298","name":"Venus_M","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525433622d774840840ddaacaf2281d2","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566385558470298","authorIdStr":"3566385558470298"},"content":"of course! so long u hold by 1 day before Ex D. eg. Ex D is 30th. last day for u to buy and hold is 29th.","text":"of course! so long u hold by 1 day before Ex D. eg. Ex D is 30th. last day for u to buy and hold is 29th.","html":"of course! so long u hold by 1 day before Ex D. eg. Ex D is 30th. last day for u to buy and hold is 29th."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":175525212,"gmtCreate":1627043210436,"gmtModify":1633768534488,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089116574465250","authorIdStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment please&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment please&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175525212","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":630207913,"gmtCreate":1642864413017,"gmtModify":1642864413360,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089116574465250","authorIdStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630207913","repostId":"2205441860","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698257919,"gmtCreate":1640418675666,"gmtModify":1640418912963,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089116574465250","authorIdStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"U","listText":"U","text":"U","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698257919","repostId":"2193917872","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852815359,"gmtCreate":1635257027797,"gmtModify":1635257271297,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089116574465250","authorIdStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852815359","repostId":"1106832376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106832376","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635256754,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106832376?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-26 21:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla shares rose 5% in morning trading after reaching one trillion dollar market cap.<blockquote>特斯拉股价在达到1万亿美元市值后，早盘上涨5%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106832376","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares rose 5% in morning trading after reaching one trillion dollar market cap.","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;5%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;reaching&nbsp;one trillion dollar market cap.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3596a5589cea958cd7f8a961e5859d7\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"623\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在达到1万亿美元市值后，早盘上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shares rose 5% in morning trading after reaching one trillion dollar market cap.<blockquote>特斯拉股价在达到1万亿美元市值后，早盘上涨5%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shares rose 5% in morning trading after reaching one trillion dollar market cap.<blockquote>特斯拉股价在达到1万亿美元市值后，早盘上涨5%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-26 21:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;5%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;reaching&nbsp;one trillion dollar market cap.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3596a5589cea958cd7f8a961e5859d7\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"623\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在达到1万亿美元市值后，早盘上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106832376","content_text":"Tesla shares rose 5% in morning trading after reaching one trillion dollar market cap.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":802459108,"gmtCreate":1627798350304,"gmtModify":1633756263996,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089116574465250","authorIdStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802459108","repostId":"1142925544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者当心！股市正在进入今年最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的这个时候，”乐队唱着20世纪70年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆着在海滩或烧烤时的愉快时光。没有必要提醒当时的任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔(Stephen Suttmeier)汇编的1928年以来的数据，8月的到来也意味着股市将进入历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现标准普尔500指数在8月、9月和10月的平均回报率为0.03%，这是大盘股基准今年最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们构成了唯一平均亏损的三个月期间。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7月份标普500的平均回报率为1.58%，其中59.1%的时间为正，而9月份的平均回报率为负1.03%，只有不到一半的时间（即45%）出现在正栏中。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。根据道琼斯统计专家的数据，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，这是自2018年9月以来最长的连续上涨。在此期间，其累计预付款为18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为0.70%，58.1%的时间为积极结果，标志着从“夏季暴跌”到“秋季暴跌”的转变。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier发现，毫不奇怪，8月至10月期间的落后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据1992年以来的记录，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在4月至7月期间波动性相对较低后，在这几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性艰难时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向据称被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以38美元的价格出售了5500万股股票。在这个过程中，它为所有参与IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一项要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期38美元至42美元范围的低端。尽管周五有所回升，但其价格在首日交易中下跌了8.4%。截至本周末，持有Robinhood IPO的买家数量下降了7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>卖出高价的人包括该公司的联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔·特涅夫(Vladimir Tenev)和首席创意官白菊·巴特(Baiju Bhatt)，他们在IPO中每人抛售了125万股。正如我杰出的前任艾伦·阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢观察的那样，卖出股票有很多好的理由，但期望它上涨并不是其中之一。考虑到富有的所有者有能力通过廉价借贷将其资产货币化，并且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未像现在这样真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，特涅夫和巴特仍然在罗宾汉拥有大量股份。正如我们的同事Avi Salzman报道的那样，按首次发行价计算，这些股票价值25亿美元，Tenev和Bhatt保留了投票权。如果股价达到300美元，或者接近众所周知的十倍，两人还可以获得Tenev价值高达67亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt价值40亿美元的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪至34,248美元，这是美国工人的平均年薪。正如喜剧演员雅科夫·斯米尔诺夫喜欢说的：“多好的国家啊！”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的状况将成为定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测约为90万人。杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons估计，增幅可能会突破期待已久的100万大关；他们预测有120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有重大争议的问题。（有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事。）</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者当心！股市正在进入今年最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者当心！股市正在进入今年最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的这个时候，”乐队唱着20世纪70年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆着在海滩或烧烤时的愉快时光。没有必要提醒当时的任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔(Stephen Suttmeier)汇编的1928年以来的数据，8月的到来也意味着股市将进入历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现标准普尔500指数在8月、9月和10月的平均回报率为0.03%，这是大盘股基准今年最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们构成了唯一平均亏损的三个月期间。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7月份标普500的平均回报率为1.58%，其中59.1%的时间为正，而9月份的平均回报率为负1.03%，只有不到一半的时间（即45%）出现在正栏中。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。根据道琼斯统计专家的数据，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，这是自2018年9月以来最长的连续上涨。在此期间，其累计预付款为18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为0.70%，58.1%的时间为积极结果，标志着从“夏季暴跌”到“秋季暴跌”的转变。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier发现，毫不奇怪，8月至10月期间的落后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据1992年以来的记录，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在4月至7月期间波动性相对较低后，在这几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性艰难时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向据称被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以38美元的价格出售了5500万股股票。在这个过程中，它为所有参与IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一项要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期38美元至42美元范围的低端。尽管周五有所回升，但其价格在首日交易中下跌了8.4%。截至本周末，持有Robinhood IPO的买家数量下降了7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>卖出高价的人包括该公司的联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔·特涅夫(Vladimir Tenev)和首席创意官白菊·巴特(Baiju Bhatt)，他们在IPO中每人抛售了125万股。正如我杰出的前任艾伦·阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢观察的那样，卖出股票有很多好的理由，但期望它上涨并不是其中之一。考虑到富有的所有者有能力通过廉价借贷将其资产货币化，并且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未像现在这样真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，特涅夫和巴特仍然在罗宾汉拥有大量股份。正如我们的同事Avi Salzman报道的那样，按首次发行价计算，这些股票价值25亿美元，Tenev和Bhatt保留了投票权。如果股价达到300美元，或者接近众所周知的十倍，两人还可以获得Tenev价值高达67亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt价值40亿美元的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪至34,248美元，这是美国工人的平均年薪。正如喜剧演员雅科夫·斯米尔诺夫喜欢说的：“多好的国家啊！”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的状况将成为定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测约为90万人。杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons估计，增幅可能会突破期待已久的100万大关；他们预测有120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有重大争议的问题。（有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事。）</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":608141458,"gmtCreate":1638671100573,"gmtModify":1638671100691,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089116574465250","authorIdStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608141458","repostId":"2188578706","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860348332,"gmtCreate":1632141132026,"gmtModify":1632802591507,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089116574465250","authorIdStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860348332","repostId":"1130418583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130418583","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632138209,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130418583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 19:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130418583","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 20) U.S. stock futures sold off Monday morning, tracking declines in overseas equities as inve","content":"<p>(Sept 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures sold off Monday morning, tracking declines in overseas equities as investors nervously eyed the potential ripple effects of the default of a major Chinese real estate company and ongoing debates over the debt limit in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>（九月二十日）美国。周一上午，随着海外股市的下跌，股指期货遭到抛售，投资者紧张地关注中国一家大型房地产公司违约的潜在连锁反应，以及华盛顿正在进行的债务上限辩论。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:47 a.m. ET,&nbsp;Dow futures sank by more than 600 points, or 1.79%, in early trading. S&amp;P 500 futures also dropped by more than 1%, adding to losses from last week. The CBOE Volatility Index, or Vix (^VIX), jumped by more than 30% as a confluence of concerns roiled markets.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午07:47，道指期货早盘下跌逾600点，跌幅1.79%。标普500期货跌幅也超过1%，跌幅较上周扩大。由于各种担忧扰乱了市场，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）上涨了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8c25019026526b24ae7ba8fd17ac289\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> 1)&nbsp;China Evergrande Group—&nbsp;Chinese property giant&nbsp;Evergrande tumbled more than 10% on Hong Kong Stock Exchange, spooking Asian markets.&nbsp;The company has been scrambling to pay its suppliers, and warned investors twice in as many weeks that it could default on its debts. Last week Evergrande said its property sales will likely continue to drop significantly in September after declining for months.</p><p><blockquote>1）中国恒大集团——中国房地产巨头恒大在香港证券交易所暴跌超过10%，令亚洲市场感到恐慌。该公司一直在争先恐后地向供应商付款，并在几周内两次警告投资者可能会拖欠债务。恒大上周表示，其房地产销售在连续数月下降后，9月份可能会继续大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b> — The pharmaceutical giantsaid Mondaythat trials showed its Covid vaccine was safe and effective when used in children ages 5 to 11. Pfizer and partner BioNTech said they would submit the results for approval “as soon as possible.” Shares of Pfizer were down about 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>2) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a></b>-这家制药巨头周一表示，试验表明其新冠疫苗用于5至11岁儿童是安全有效的。辉瑞和合作伙伴BioNTech表示，他们将“尽快”提交结果以供批准。辉瑞股价在盘前交易中下跌约1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LPI\">Laredo</a> ,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a></b> — Oil and energy stocks dipped in premarket trading on Monday. The SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration ETF is down more than 3% in early trading, on pace for its 3rd straight negative session. Laredo Petroleum is down more than 8%, Callon Petroleum is down roughly 6%, and Occidental Petroleum is down nearly 5%. The losses came as crude oil fell on fears of a global economic slowdown tied to the China property market.</p><p><blockquote><b>3) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LPI\">拉雷多</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方</a></b>-石油和能源股周一盘前交易中下跌。SPDR S&amp;P石油和天然气勘探ETF早盘下跌超过3%，连续第三个交易日下跌。拉雷多石油公司下跌超过8%，卡隆石油公司下跌约6%，西方石油公司下跌近5%。这些损失发生之际，由于担心全球经济放缓与中国房地产市场有关，原油价格下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">Colgate-Palmolive</a></b> — The consumer staples stock wasupgradedto buy from hold by Deutsche Bank on Sunday. The investment firm said that Colgate’s difficulties with inflation and in some international markets was already priced in to its stock.</p><p><blockquote><b>4) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">高露洁棕榄</a></b>-德意志银行周日将必需消费品股票评级从持有上调至买入。该投资公司表示，高露洁在通货膨胀和一些国际市场上遇到的困难已经反映在其股票中。</blockquote></p><p> 5)&nbsp;JPMorgan,&nbsp;Bank of America— Bank stocks slid in unison amid a decline in bond yields on slowdown fears. Investors flocked to Treasurys for safety as the stock market is set for its biggest sell-off in months. Big bank stocks took a hit as the falling rates may crimp profits. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase were each down more than 2% in premarket trading. Citizens Financial Group dropped 3%, while Citigroup declined 2.5%.</p><p><blockquote>5)摩根大通、美国银行——由于经济放缓担忧导致债券收益率下降，银行股同步下跌。由于股市将出现数月来最大的抛售，投资者纷纷涌向美国国债寻求安全。由于利率下降可能会抑制利润，大型银行股受到打击。美国银行和摩根大通在盘前交易中均下跌超过2%。公民金融集团下跌3%，花旗集团下跌2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZNCF\">AstraZeneca Plc</a></b> — The United Kingdom-based pharmaceutical company announced on Monday that its breast cancer drug Enhertu showed positive results in a phase-three trial. Shares of the company were up more than 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>6) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZNCF\">阿斯利康公司</a></b>-这家总部位于英国的制药公司周一宣布，其乳腺癌药物Enhertu在三期试验中显示出积极的结果。该公司股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a> </b>— Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF is down 2.75% in the premarket, on pace to snap a 3-day winning streak. Compugen, DraftKings, Coinbase and Square are so of the ETF’s biggest losers this morning.</p><p><blockquote><b>7) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">方舟创新ETF</a></b>—Cathie Wood的ARK Innovation ETF盘前下跌2.75%，有望实现连续3天上涨。Compugen、DraftKings、Coinbase和Square是今天上午ETF的最大输家。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors believe this is just normal market action that can occur in September.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者认为，这只是9月份可能发生的正常市场行为。</blockquote></p><p> “The reasons for drop this morning are the same as last week: China concerns (Evergrande, regulation, COVID), Fed tapering and possible tax hikes, but nothing new occurred this weekend to justify this mornings’ declines,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>创始人Tom Essaye表示：“今天上午下跌的原因与上周相同：中国担忧（恒大、监管、新冠疫情）、美联储缩减购债规模和可能的增税，但本周末没有发生任何新的事情来证明今天上午的下跌是合理的。”Sevens Report在一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Other risky assets declined on Monday.Bitcoinlost 8% tobelow $44,000.</p><p><blockquote>其他风险资产周一下跌。比特币下跌8%，至44,000美元以下。</blockquote></p><p> Most commodities were in the red.Goldwas among the few assets in the green, adding 0.5% to $1,760.</p><p><blockquote>大多数大宗商品均出现亏损。黄金是少数上涨的资产之一，上涨0.5%至1,760美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-20 19:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures sold off Monday morning, tracking declines in overseas equities as investors nervously eyed the potential ripple effects of the default of a major Chinese real estate company and ongoing debates over the debt limit in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>（九月二十日）美国。周一上午，随着海外股市的下跌，股指期货遭到抛售，投资者紧张地关注中国一家大型房地产公司违约的潜在连锁反应，以及华盛顿正在进行的债务上限辩论。</blockquote></p><p> At 07:47 a.m. ET,&nbsp;Dow futures sank by more than 600 points, or 1.79%, in early trading. S&amp;P 500 futures also dropped by more than 1%, adding to losses from last week. The CBOE Volatility Index, or Vix (^VIX), jumped by more than 30% as a confluence of concerns roiled markets.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午07:47，道指期货早盘下跌逾600点，跌幅1.79%。标普500期货跌幅也超过1%，跌幅较上周扩大。由于各种担忧扰乱了市场，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）上涨了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8c25019026526b24ae7ba8fd17ac289\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> 1)&nbsp;China Evergrande Group—&nbsp;Chinese property giant&nbsp;Evergrande tumbled more than 10% on Hong Kong Stock Exchange, spooking Asian markets.&nbsp;The company has been scrambling to pay its suppliers, and warned investors twice in as many weeks that it could default on its debts. Last week Evergrande said its property sales will likely continue to drop significantly in September after declining for months.</p><p><blockquote>1）中国恒大集团——中国房地产巨头恒大在香港证券交易所暴跌超过10%，令亚洲市场感到恐慌。该公司一直在争先恐后地向供应商付款，并在几周内两次警告投资者可能会拖欠债务。恒大上周表示，其房地产销售在连续数月下降后，9月份可能会继续大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b> — The pharmaceutical giantsaid Mondaythat trials showed its Covid vaccine was safe and effective when used in children ages 5 to 11. Pfizer and partner BioNTech said they would submit the results for approval “as soon as possible.” Shares of Pfizer were down about 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>2) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a></b>-这家制药巨头周一表示，试验表明其新冠疫苗用于5至11岁儿童是安全有效的。辉瑞和合作伙伴BioNTech表示，他们将“尽快”提交结果以供批准。辉瑞股价在盘前交易中下跌约1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LPI\">Laredo</a> ,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a></b> — Oil and energy stocks dipped in premarket trading on Monday. The SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration ETF is down more than 3% in early trading, on pace for its 3rd straight negative session. Laredo Petroleum is down more than 8%, Callon Petroleum is down roughly 6%, and Occidental Petroleum is down nearly 5%. The losses came as crude oil fell on fears of a global economic slowdown tied to the China property market.</p><p><blockquote><b>3) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LPI\">拉雷多</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方</a></b>-石油和能源股周一盘前交易中下跌。SPDR S&amp;P石油和天然气勘探ETF早盘下跌超过3%，连续第三个交易日下跌。拉雷多石油公司下跌超过8%，卡隆石油公司下跌约6%，西方石油公司下跌近5%。这些损失发生之际，由于担心全球经济放缓与中国房地产市场有关，原油价格下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">Colgate-Palmolive</a></b> — The consumer staples stock wasupgradedto buy from hold by Deutsche Bank on Sunday. The investment firm said that Colgate’s difficulties with inflation and in some international markets was already priced in to its stock.</p><p><blockquote><b>4) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">高露洁棕榄</a></b>-德意志银行周日将必需消费品股票评级从持有上调至买入。该投资公司表示，高露洁在通货膨胀和一些国际市场上遇到的困难已经反映在其股票中。</blockquote></p><p> 5)&nbsp;JPMorgan,&nbsp;Bank of America— Bank stocks slid in unison amid a decline in bond yields on slowdown fears. Investors flocked to Treasurys for safety as the stock market is set for its biggest sell-off in months. Big bank stocks took a hit as the falling rates may crimp profits. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase were each down more than 2% in premarket trading. Citizens Financial Group dropped 3%, while Citigroup declined 2.5%.</p><p><blockquote>5)摩根大通、美国银行——由于经济放缓担忧导致债券收益率下降，银行股同步下跌。由于股市将出现数月来最大的抛售，投资者纷纷涌向美国国债寻求安全。由于利率下降可能会抑制利润，大型银行股受到打击。美国银行和摩根大通在盘前交易中均下跌超过2%。公民金融集团下跌3%，花旗集团下跌2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZNCF\">AstraZeneca Plc</a></b> — The United Kingdom-based pharmaceutical company announced on Monday that its breast cancer drug Enhertu showed positive results in a phase-three trial. Shares of the company were up more than 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>6) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZNCF\">阿斯利康公司</a></b>-这家总部位于英国的制药公司周一宣布，其乳腺癌药物Enhertu在三期试验中显示出积极的结果。该公司股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a> </b>— Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF is down 2.75% in the premarket, on pace to snap a 3-day winning streak. Compugen, DraftKings, Coinbase and Square are so of the ETF’s biggest losers this morning.</p><p><blockquote><b>7) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">方舟创新ETF</a></b>—Cathie Wood的ARK Innovation ETF盘前下跌2.75%，有望实现连续3天上涨。Compugen、DraftKings、Coinbase和Square是今天上午ETF的最大输家。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors believe this is just normal market action that can occur in September.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者认为，这只是9月份可能发生的正常市场行为。</blockquote></p><p> “The reasons for drop this morning are the same as last week: China concerns (Evergrande, regulation, COVID), Fed tapering and possible tax hikes, but nothing new occurred this weekend to justify this mornings’ declines,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>创始人Tom Essaye表示：“今天上午下跌的原因与上周相同：中国担忧（恒大、监管、新冠疫情）、美联储缩减购债规模和可能的增税，但本周末没有发生任何新的事情来证明今天上午的下跌是合理的。”Sevens Report在一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Other risky assets declined on Monday.Bitcoinlost 8% tobelow $44,000.</p><p><blockquote>其他风险资产周一下跌。比特币下跌8%，至44,000美元以下。</blockquote></p><p> Most commodities were in the red.Goldwas among the few assets in the green, adding 0.5% to $1,760.</p><p><blockquote>大多数大宗商品均出现亏损。黄金是少数上涨的资产之一，上涨0.5%至1,760美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130418583","content_text":"(Sept 20) U.S. stock futures sold off Monday morning, tracking declines in overseas equities as investors nervously eyed the potential ripple effects of the default of a major Chinese real estate company and ongoing debates over the debt limit in Washington.\nAt 07:47 a.m. ET, Dow futures sank by more than 600 points, or 1.79%, in early trading. S&P 500 futures also dropped by more than 1%, adding to losses from last week. The CBOE Volatility Index, or Vix (^VIX), jumped by more than 30% as a confluence of concerns roiled markets.\n\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket\n1) China Evergrande Group— Chinese property giant Evergrande tumbled more than 10% on Hong Kong Stock Exchange, spooking Asian markets. The company has been scrambling to pay its suppliers, and warned investors twice in as many weeks that it could default on its debts. Last week Evergrande said its property sales will likely continue to drop significantly in September after declining for months.\n2) Pfizer — The pharmaceutical giantsaid Mondaythat trials showed its Covid vaccine was safe and effective when used in children ages 5 to 11. Pfizer and partner BioNTech said they would submit the results for approval “as soon as possible.” Shares of Pfizer were down about 1% in premarket trading.\n3) Laredo ,Occidental — Oil and energy stocks dipped in premarket trading on Monday. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration ETF is down more than 3% in early trading, on pace for its 3rd straight negative session. Laredo Petroleum is down more than 8%, Callon Petroleum is down roughly 6%, and Occidental Petroleum is down nearly 5%. The losses came as crude oil fell on fears of a global economic slowdown tied to the China property market.\n4) Colgate-Palmolive — The consumer staples stock wasupgradedto buy from hold by Deutsche Bank on Sunday. The investment firm said that Colgate’s difficulties with inflation and in some international markets was already priced in to its stock.\n5) JPMorgan, Bank of America— Bank stocks slid in unison amid a decline in bond yields on slowdown fears. Investors flocked to Treasurys for safety as the stock market is set for its biggest sell-off in months. Big bank stocks took a hit as the falling rates may crimp profits. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase were each down more than 2% in premarket trading. Citizens Financial Group dropped 3%, while Citigroup declined 2.5%.\n6) AstraZeneca Plc — The United Kingdom-based pharmaceutical company announced on Monday that its breast cancer drug Enhertu showed positive results in a phase-three trial. Shares of the company were up more than 1% in premarket trading.\n7) ARK Innovation ETF — Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF is down 2.75% in the premarket, on pace to snap a 3-day winning streak. Compugen, DraftKings, Coinbase and Square are so of the ETF’s biggest losers this morning.\nSome investors believe this is just normal market action that can occur in September.\n“The reasons for drop this morning are the same as last week: China concerns (Evergrande, regulation, COVID), Fed tapering and possible tax hikes, but nothing new occurred this weekend to justify this mornings’ declines,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a note.\nOther risky assets declined on Monday.Bitcoinlost 8% tobelow $44,000.\nMost commodities were in the red.Goldwas among the few assets in the green, adding 0.5% to 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20:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Here's Your Chance To Buy<blockquote>苹果股票：这是你买入的机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183198352","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAAPL has returned to strong price support, and I believe it will turn higher from here.\nThe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AAPL has returned to strong price support, and I believe it will turn higher from here.</li>  <li>The company's fundamentals continue to improve in a variety of ways, and supply chain issues are just noise.</li>  <li>The stock is a buy and I believe will make new all-time highs in the relatively near future.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eee640d38ca964a8a25d978d1f858293\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AleksandarNakic/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AAPL已经回到了强劲的价格支撑，我相信它会从这里转高。</li><li>公司基本面以多种方式持续改善，供应链问题只是噪音。</li><li>该股值得买入，我相信在不久的将来将创下历史新高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AleksandarNakic/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The selloff that took place last Friday was certainly unexpected. A new COVID variant is never a good thing - for a variety of reasons - and the market sold first and asked questions later. The good news is that selling created some great entry points on leading stocks, and in this article, I'll update my views on technology mothership&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>(AAPL), which I believe just hit very strong support, and is now ready for a run to a new all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>上周五发生的抛售当然出乎意料。出于各种原因，新的COVID变体从来都不是一件好事，市场先卖，后问问题。好消息是，抛售为龙头股创造了一些很好的切入点，在本文中，我将更新我对科技母舰的看法<b>苹果</b>（AAPL），我相信它刚刚触及非常强劲的支撑，现在已准备好创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has been a model portfolio stock in my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service,<i>Timely Trader</i>, since the service's inception, and by all evidence, appears poised to maintain its position. The portfolio is re-evaluated every month to ensure our capital is deployed effectively, and Apple continues to make the cut. Below I'll explain why the noise around the supply chain is just that, and why the stock has positioned itself for continued highs into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>苹果一直是我的Seeking Alpha Marketplace服务中的模型投资组合股票，<i>及时交易者</i>自该服务成立以来，从所有证据来看，似乎已准备好保持其地位。投资组合每月都会重新评估，以确保我们的资本得到有效部署，苹果也会继续削减。下面我将解释为什么围绕供应链的噪音就是这样，以及为什么该股将自己定位为在2022年持续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98a005c1e28b33227395e295eb4d3ac6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"812\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We'll take a brief look at the chart, because I think this pretty clearly illustrates why Apple is a buy right now. First, the stock made a new all-time high earlier this month on very heavy volume, which is a bullish trait. It means buyers were out in force while the share price was rising, indicating a lot of market participation with the new high. That coincided with a new high in the accumulation/distribution line, which measures whether the stock is finishing nearer to the high or low for the day. A higher A/D line means buyers are active during the day, and is another bullish trait; Apple is exhibiting this as well.</p><p><blockquote>我们将简单看一下图表，因为我认为这非常清楚地说明了为什么苹果现在值得买入。首先，该股本月早些时候因成交量非常大而创下历史新高，这是一个看涨特征。这意味着当股价上涨时，买家大量出局，表明市场参与度创新高。这与累积/分配线的新高相吻合，该线衡量股票收盘是接近当天的高点还是低点。较高的A/D线意味着买家在白天活跃，是另一个看涨特征；苹果也在展示这一点。</blockquote></p><p> The stock was overbought during the rally - as measured by the 14-day RSI - but has since pulled back meaningfully during this consolidation. That's completely expected and totally fine, as it means the bulls can now make another run higher. And finally, the PPO is in very bullish territory, and is continuing to move higher, so I see no issues with momentum despite the recent pullback.</p><p><blockquote>根据14天RSI衡量，该股在反弹期间处于超买状态，但此后在盘整期间大幅回调。这完全在意料之中，也完全没问题，因为这意味着多头现在可以再次走高。最后，PPO处于非常看涨的区域，并且正在继续走高，因此尽管最近出现回调，但我认为势头没有问题。</blockquote></p><p> In short, Apple's chart looks great, and with support at ~$157, which was the prior breakout level, as well as the rising 20-day EMA (in red above), I see a lot of reasons to be bullish today.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，苹果的图表看起来很棒，支撑位约为157美元（这是之前的突破水平），以及上升的20日均线（上面红色），我今天看到了很多看涨的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's take a look at the fundamental case for Apple, which I think remains as strong as it has ever been.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看苹果的基本情况，我认为它仍然一如既往地强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ignore the noise, Apple is still dominant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>忽略杂音，苹果仍占优势</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's&nbsp;Q4 earnings&nbsp;showed a rare revenue miss and profit number that was only in line with expectations, which is quite unusual for this juggernaut. However, as we all know, Apple and others are being heavily impacted by supply chain woes that have absolutely taken over the conversation when it comes to the economy in recent months. Apple, like any other manufacturer, needs its supply chain to be functioning at full speed in order to maximize revenue, but these things are largely out of its control. Apple suffered for that in Q4, but instead of focusing on the report itself, which you can read all about in a variety of places, let's look at how Apple may respond in the fiscal year that just began.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第四季度财报显示，收入罕见地低于预期，利润数据仅符合预期，这对于这家巨头来说是很不寻常的。然而，众所周知，苹果和其他国家正受到供应链困境的严重影响，近几个月来，供应链困境绝对占据了经济话题。与任何其他制造商一样，苹果需要其供应链全速运转，以实现收入最大化，但这些事情在很大程度上超出了其控制范围。苹果在第四季度因此遭受了损失，但与其关注报告本身（您可以在多个地方阅读有关该报告的所有内容），不如让我们看看苹果在刚刚开始的财年可能会如何应对。</blockquote></p><p> There is&nbsp;evidence&nbsp;to suggest that Apple's supply chain issues that negatively impacted the fourth quarter, and indeed, October as well, are abating. Keep in mind that Apple's suppliers have massive incentives to keep their components flowing to Apple to make phones and other devices, so there are literally thousands of people across the world working to address Apple's supply chain issues. With the iPhone 13 cycle ramping up, and&nbsp;China&nbsp;showing strong demand for Apple products once again, all looks well.</p><p><blockquote>有证据表明，对第四季度乃至10月份产生负面影响的苹果供应链问题正在减弱。请记住，苹果的供应商有巨大的动力让他们的零部件流向苹果制造手机和其他设备，因此世界各地实际上有成千上万的人致力于解决苹果的供应链问题。随着iPhone 13周期的加速，以及中国对苹果产品的强劲需求再次显现，一切看起来都很好。</blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind also that selling the stock because Apple cannot keep up with demand is a bit counterintuitive. Generally, you want to sell stocks that have too much supply and not enough demand; Apple has the opposite problem, which indicates two things. First, pricing power should remain quite strong given the demand/supply imbalance, and second, when supply does catch up to demand, we'll see higher volumes at strong prices. Why would you sell a stock with these characteristics?</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，因为苹果跟不上需求而出售股票有点违反直觉。一般你要卖出供给过多而需求不足的股票；苹果有相反的问题，这表明了两件事。首先，鉴于需求/供应不平衡，定价权应该保持相当强，其次，当供应赶上需求时，我们将看到价格强劲的销量增加。您为什么要出售具有这些特征的股票？</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's take a look at revenue estimates to see how analysts see Apple moving forward given the supply chain issues are well-known.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看收入预测，看看鉴于供应链问题众所周知，分析师如何看待苹果的未来发展。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e4ee0e69bc003794d9ef8a801403a88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see that Apple's estimates continue to move up and to the right, although one could argue the pace of increases has slowed. That's okay, because the important thing is that we continue to see higher and higher revenue estimates for the years to come. I'd also offer that Apple has generally performed quite well against revenue estimates, which is why Q4's revenue miss took people by surprise. I'll reiterate the revenue miss was due to supply chain issues outside of the company's control, and therefore shouldn't be blown out of proportion; it's transitory.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到苹果的估计继续向上和向右移动，尽管有人可能会说增加的速度已经放缓。没关系，因为重要的是我们继续看到未来几年的收入预期越来越高。我还想说，苹果的收入预期总体表现相当不错，这就是为什么第四季度的收入低于预期让人们感到惊讶。我要重申的是，收入下滑是由于公司无法控制的供应链问题造成的，因此不应该被夸大；只是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Now, another key to the bull thesis is that Apple's margins are&nbsp;<i>flying</i>, which we can see below. I've plotted trailing-twelve-months revenue and operating margins to illustrate how operating leverage is working for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>现在，牛市论点的另一个关键是苹果的利润率<i>飞行</i>，我们可以在下面看到。我绘制了过去12个月的收入和营业利润率，以说明营业杠杆如何为苹果发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbaba8826e257af5666c27d29b2f18cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue on a TTM basis was actually pretty flat for a couple of years, but in the past handful of quarters, has flown higher. With that, operating margins have moved significantly higher as well, with the September 2020 quarter posting 24% operating margins, while this year's September quarter posting TTM margins of 30%. That's a 25% increase in the amount of profit per dollar of revenue Apple produces, which is enormous to say the least. And as we'll see in just a moment, those gains look set to continue.</p><p><blockquote>基于TTM的收入实际上几年来相当持平，但在过去几个季度中，收入有所上升。因此，营业利润率也大幅上升，2020年9月季度的营业利润率为24%，而今年9月季度的TTM利润率为30%。这意味着苹果每一美元收入的利润增加了25%，至少可以说这是巨大的。正如我们稍后将看到的，这些收益似乎将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> Below we have TTM gross margins and SG&amp;A costs, which are the two main components of operating margins, to illustrate how Apple has achieved its profitability gains.</p><p><blockquote>下面我们以TTM毛利率和SG&amp;A成本（营业利润率的两个主要组成部分）来说明苹果如何实现盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af4bc2b49806742ed776ba5e76577543\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SG&amp;A costs have declined from just over 7% of revenue to only 6% of revenue as of the most recent quarter, while gross margins are up from ~38% to ~42% in the same period. That means Apple is gaining on both sides of the equation, showing strong margins through pricing power, and reducing relative costs to produce revenue. This is how Apple has managed to boost profitability so much in the past few quarters, and it all hinges upon higher revenue.</p><p><blockquote>截至最近一个季度，SG&amp;A成本已从略高于收入的7%下降至仅6%，而同期毛利率从约38%上升至约42%。这意味着苹果在等式的两边都获得了收益，通过定价权显示出强劲的利润率，并降低了产生收入的相对成本。这就是苹果在过去几个季度大幅提高盈利能力的原因，而这一切都取决于更高的收入。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that so long as revenue is rising, we should see steady or higher gross margins, and lower SG&amp;A costs. These things combine to create higher profitability per dollar of revenue, so we get this supercharged impact on earnings growth where revenue is higher, and the profit per dollar is higher. If you're an Apple bull, you want to keep your eye on revenue because it's driving everything.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，只要收入在增长，我们就应该看到稳定或更高的毛利率，以及更低的SG&amp;A成本。这些因素结合起来创造了更高的每美元收入的盈利能力，因此当收入更高、每美元利润更高时，我们会对盈利增长产生巨大影响。如果您看好苹果，您会希望关注收入，因为它推动了一切。</blockquote></p><p> Switching gears, Apple has been a very strong returner of capital in recent years, and that is no different today. The dividend is pretty small and meaningless at this point, but the company's efforts to reduce the float are anything but.</p><p><blockquote>换个角度来看，苹果近年来一直是一个非常强大的资本回报者，今天也没有什么不同。目前股息相当小且毫无意义，但公司减少流通量的努力却绝非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02926f966d571a5d9af3865b5534bd75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the share count is<i>36% lower</i>than it was in 2012, which means that on a per-share basis, Apple's earnings are worth 36% more than they otherwise would be. Apple has far more cash than it could ever profitably reinvest in the business, and it produces more and more every year. That means we'll almost certainly see this continue to dwindle, providing a constant tailwind to EPS every year.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到股票数量是<i>降低36%</i>与2012年相比，这意味着按每股计算，苹果的收益比其他情况下高出36%。苹果拥有的现金远远超过了对该业务进行再投资的盈利能力，而且每年的产量都在增加。这意味着我们几乎肯定会看到这一数字继续减少，每年都会为每股收益提供持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> We therefore have ever-rising revenue, rising margins, and a lower share count, all of which support higher EPS. It is no surprise then that Apple's EPS revisions look the way they do.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的收入不断增长，利润率不断上升，股票数量不断减少，所有这些都支持更高的每股收益。因此，苹果的每股收益修正看起来是这样也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b562a3b59264989d5077b069db4633ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is exactly what you want to see, and it's the product of a company that continues to outperform expectations, intelligently return capital to shareholders, and continue to create and market world-class products that consumers cannot get enough of.</p><p><blockquote>这正是你想看到的，它是一家公司的产品，不断超越预期，明智地向股东返还资本，并继续创造和营销消费者百看不厌的世界级产品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation reset creates a buying chance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值重置创造买入机会</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, we all know valuations are stretched in a lot of places for a lot of different stocks, and Apple is no different. We can see below that its forward PE is 28X today, versus a three-year average of 23X. However, it's well off its high of 37X, and I'd argue that given its acceleration of revenue and margins, Apple should be more highly valued than it was in the past three years. The simple fact is that the company's earnings stream has improved greatly, so why shouldn't the valuation?</p><p><blockquote>现在，我们都知道很多不同股票的估值在很多地方都过高，苹果也不例外。我们可以在下面看到，目前其远期市盈率为28倍，而三年平均市盈率为23倍。然而，它远低于37倍的高点，我认为，鉴于其收入和利润率的加速增长，苹果的估值应该比过去三年更高。简单的事实是，公司的盈利流已经大大改善，那么估值为什么不应该呢？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3375c0e3b0081634279d2f828195612\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the company's growth trajectory, and including the fact that we should see some pent-up demand from fiscal 2021 moved into fiscal 2022 due to supply chain issues, I see this valuation as quite enticing. In fact, I think there's a lot more upside potential to 28X earnings than there is downside potential, so when we combine the technical picture with the fundamentals - including this valuation - I cannot see any path other than a bullish one for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该公司的增长轨迹，包括由于供应链问题，我们应该会看到一些从2021财年被压抑的需求转移到2022财年，我认为这个估值相当诱人。事实上，我认为28倍市盈率的上行潜力远大于下行潜力，因此当我们将技术面与基本面（包括这个估值）结合起来时，除了看涨苹果之外，我看不到任何其他道路。</blockquote></p><p> I'm certainly no Apple perma-bull, but when I objectively evaluate this company's prospects and the outlook for the stock, I can only reach one conclusion: it's a buy on its way to new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>我当然不是苹果的永久看涨者，但当我客观评估这家公司的前景和股票的前景时，我只能得出一个结论：这是一个正在创下历史新高的买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Here's Your Chance To Buy<blockquote>苹果股票：这是你买入的机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Here's Your Chance To Buy<blockquote>苹果股票：这是你买入的机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 20:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AAPL has returned to strong price support, and I believe it will turn higher from here.</li>  <li>The company's fundamentals continue to improve in a variety of ways, and supply chain issues are just noise.</li>  <li>The stock is a buy and I believe will make new all-time highs in the relatively near future.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eee640d38ca964a8a25d978d1f858293\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AleksandarNakic/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AAPL已经回到了强劲的价格支撑，我相信它会从这里转高。</li><li>公司基本面以多种方式持续改善，供应链问题只是噪音。</li><li>该股值得买入，我相信在不久的将来将创下历史新高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AleksandarNakic/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The selloff that took place last Friday was certainly unexpected. A new COVID variant is never a good thing - for a variety of reasons - and the market sold first and asked questions later. The good news is that selling created some great entry points on leading stocks, and in this article, I'll update my views on technology mothership&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>(AAPL), which I believe just hit very strong support, and is now ready for a run to a new all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>上周五发生的抛售当然出乎意料。出于各种原因，新的COVID变体从来都不是一件好事，市场先卖，后问问题。好消息是，抛售为龙头股创造了一些很好的切入点，在本文中，我将更新我对科技母舰的看法<b>苹果</b>（AAPL），我相信它刚刚触及非常强劲的支撑，现在已准备好创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has been a model portfolio stock in my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service,<i>Timely Trader</i>, since the service's inception, and by all evidence, appears poised to maintain its position. The portfolio is re-evaluated every month to ensure our capital is deployed effectively, and Apple continues to make the cut. Below I'll explain why the noise around the supply chain is just that, and why the stock has positioned itself for continued highs into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>苹果一直是我的Seeking Alpha Marketplace服务中的模型投资组合股票，<i>及时交易者</i>自该服务成立以来，从所有证据来看，似乎已准备好保持其地位。投资组合每月都会重新评估，以确保我们的资本得到有效部署，苹果也会继续削减。下面我将解释为什么围绕供应链的噪音就是这样，以及为什么该股将自己定位为在2022年持续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98a005c1e28b33227395e295eb4d3ac6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"812\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We'll take a brief look at the chart, because I think this pretty clearly illustrates why Apple is a buy right now. First, the stock made a new all-time high earlier this month on very heavy volume, which is a bullish trait. It means buyers were out in force while the share price was rising, indicating a lot of market participation with the new high. That coincided with a new high in the accumulation/distribution line, which measures whether the stock is finishing nearer to the high or low for the day. A higher A/D line means buyers are active during the day, and is another bullish trait; Apple is exhibiting this as well.</p><p><blockquote>我们将简单看一下图表，因为我认为这非常清楚地说明了为什么苹果现在值得买入。首先，该股本月早些时候因成交量非常大而创下历史新高，这是一个看涨特征。这意味着当股价上涨时，买家大量出局，表明市场参与度创新高。这与累积/分配线的新高相吻合，该线衡量股票收盘是接近当天的高点还是低点。较高的A/D线意味着买家在白天活跃，是另一个看涨特征；苹果也在展示这一点。</blockquote></p><p> The stock was overbought during the rally - as measured by the 14-day RSI - but has since pulled back meaningfully during this consolidation. That's completely expected and totally fine, as it means the bulls can now make another run higher. And finally, the PPO is in very bullish territory, and is continuing to move higher, so I see no issues with momentum despite the recent pullback.</p><p><blockquote>根据14天RSI衡量，该股在反弹期间处于超买状态，但此后在盘整期间大幅回调。这完全在意料之中，也完全没问题，因为这意味着多头现在可以再次走高。最后，PPO处于非常看涨的区域，并且正在继续走高，因此尽管最近出现回调，但我认为势头没有问题。</blockquote></p><p> In short, Apple's chart looks great, and with support at ~$157, which was the prior breakout level, as well as the rising 20-day EMA (in red above), I see a lot of reasons to be bullish today.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，苹果的图表看起来很棒，支撑位约为157美元（这是之前的突破水平），以及上升的20日均线（上面红色），我今天看到了很多看涨的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's take a look at the fundamental case for Apple, which I think remains as strong as it has ever been.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看苹果的基本情况，我认为它仍然一如既往地强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ignore the noise, Apple is still dominant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>忽略杂音，苹果仍占优势</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's&nbsp;Q4 earnings&nbsp;showed a rare revenue miss and profit number that was only in line with expectations, which is quite unusual for this juggernaut. However, as we all know, Apple and others are being heavily impacted by supply chain woes that have absolutely taken over the conversation when it comes to the economy in recent months. Apple, like any other manufacturer, needs its supply chain to be functioning at full speed in order to maximize revenue, but these things are largely out of its control. Apple suffered for that in Q4, but instead of focusing on the report itself, which you can read all about in a variety of places, let's look at how Apple may respond in the fiscal year that just began.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第四季度财报显示，收入罕见地低于预期，利润数据仅符合预期，这对于这家巨头来说是很不寻常的。然而，众所周知，苹果和其他国家正受到供应链困境的严重影响，近几个月来，供应链困境绝对占据了经济话题。与任何其他制造商一样，苹果需要其供应链全速运转，以实现收入最大化，但这些事情在很大程度上超出了其控制范围。苹果在第四季度因此遭受了损失，但与其关注报告本身（您可以在多个地方阅读有关该报告的所有内容），不如让我们看看苹果在刚刚开始的财年可能会如何应对。</blockquote></p><p> There is&nbsp;evidence&nbsp;to suggest that Apple's supply chain issues that negatively impacted the fourth quarter, and indeed, October as well, are abating. Keep in mind that Apple's suppliers have massive incentives to keep their components flowing to Apple to make phones and other devices, so there are literally thousands of people across the world working to address Apple's supply chain issues. With the iPhone 13 cycle ramping up, and&nbsp;China&nbsp;showing strong demand for Apple products once again, all looks well.</p><p><blockquote>有证据表明，对第四季度乃至10月份产生负面影响的苹果供应链问题正在减弱。请记住，苹果的供应商有巨大的动力让他们的零部件流向苹果制造手机和其他设备，因此世界各地实际上有成千上万的人致力于解决苹果的供应链问题。随着iPhone 13周期的加速，以及中国对苹果产品的强劲需求再次显现，一切看起来都很好。</blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind also that selling the stock because Apple cannot keep up with demand is a bit counterintuitive. Generally, you want to sell stocks that have too much supply and not enough demand; Apple has the opposite problem, which indicates two things. First, pricing power should remain quite strong given the demand/supply imbalance, and second, when supply does catch up to demand, we'll see higher volumes at strong prices. Why would you sell a stock with these characteristics?</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，因为苹果跟不上需求而出售股票有点违反直觉。一般你要卖出供给过多而需求不足的股票；苹果有相反的问题，这表明了两件事。首先，鉴于需求/供应不平衡，定价权应该保持相当强，其次，当供应赶上需求时，我们将看到价格强劲的销量增加。您为什么要出售具有这些特征的股票？</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's take a look at revenue estimates to see how analysts see Apple moving forward given the supply chain issues are well-known.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看收入预测，看看鉴于供应链问题众所周知，分析师如何看待苹果的未来发展。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e4ee0e69bc003794d9ef8a801403a88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see that Apple's estimates continue to move up and to the right, although one could argue the pace of increases has slowed. That's okay, because the important thing is that we continue to see higher and higher revenue estimates for the years to come. I'd also offer that Apple has generally performed quite well against revenue estimates, which is why Q4's revenue miss took people by surprise. I'll reiterate the revenue miss was due to supply chain issues outside of the company's control, and therefore shouldn't be blown out of proportion; it's transitory.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到苹果的估计继续向上和向右移动，尽管有人可能会说增加的速度已经放缓。没关系，因为重要的是我们继续看到未来几年的收入预期越来越高。我还想说，苹果的收入预期总体表现相当不错，这就是为什么第四季度的收入低于预期让人们感到惊讶。我要重申的是，收入下滑是由于公司无法控制的供应链问题造成的，因此不应该被夸大；只是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Now, another key to the bull thesis is that Apple's margins are&nbsp;<i>flying</i>, which we can see below. I've plotted trailing-twelve-months revenue and operating margins to illustrate how operating leverage is working for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>现在，牛市论点的另一个关键是苹果的利润率<i>飞行</i>，我们可以在下面看到。我绘制了过去12个月的收入和营业利润率，以说明营业杠杆如何为苹果发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbaba8826e257af5666c27d29b2f18cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue on a TTM basis was actually pretty flat for a couple of years, but in the past handful of quarters, has flown higher. With that, operating margins have moved significantly higher as well, with the September 2020 quarter posting 24% operating margins, while this year's September quarter posting TTM margins of 30%. That's a 25% increase in the amount of profit per dollar of revenue Apple produces, which is enormous to say the least. And as we'll see in just a moment, those gains look set to continue.</p><p><blockquote>基于TTM的收入实际上几年来相当持平，但在过去几个季度中，收入有所上升。因此，营业利润率也大幅上升，2020年9月季度的营业利润率为24%，而今年9月季度的TTM利润率为30%。这意味着苹果每一美元收入的利润增加了25%，至少可以说这是巨大的。正如我们稍后将看到的，这些收益似乎将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> Below we have TTM gross margins and SG&amp;A costs, which are the two main components of operating margins, to illustrate how Apple has achieved its profitability gains.</p><p><blockquote>下面我们以TTM毛利率和SG&amp;A成本（营业利润率的两个主要组成部分）来说明苹果如何实现盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af4bc2b49806742ed776ba5e76577543\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SG&amp;A costs have declined from just over 7% of revenue to only 6% of revenue as of the most recent quarter, while gross margins are up from ~38% to ~42% in the same period. That means Apple is gaining on both sides of the equation, showing strong margins through pricing power, and reducing relative costs to produce revenue. This is how Apple has managed to boost profitability so much in the past few quarters, and it all hinges upon higher revenue.</p><p><blockquote>截至最近一个季度，SG&amp;A成本已从略高于收入的7%下降至仅6%，而同期毛利率从约38%上升至约42%。这意味着苹果在等式的两边都获得了收益，通过定价权显示出强劲的利润率，并降低了产生收入的相对成本。这就是苹果在过去几个季度大幅提高盈利能力的原因，而这一切都取决于更高的收入。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that so long as revenue is rising, we should see steady or higher gross margins, and lower SG&amp;A costs. These things combine to create higher profitability per dollar of revenue, so we get this supercharged impact on earnings growth where revenue is higher, and the profit per dollar is higher. If you're an Apple bull, you want to keep your eye on revenue because it's driving everything.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，只要收入在增长，我们就应该看到稳定或更高的毛利率，以及更低的SG&amp;A成本。这些因素结合起来创造了更高的每美元收入的盈利能力，因此当收入更高、每美元利润更高时，我们会对盈利增长产生巨大影响。如果您看好苹果，您会希望关注收入，因为它推动了一切。</blockquote></p><p> Switching gears, Apple has been a very strong returner of capital in recent years, and that is no different today. The dividend is pretty small and meaningless at this point, but the company's efforts to reduce the float are anything but.</p><p><blockquote>换个角度来看，苹果近年来一直是一个非常强大的资本回报者，今天也没有什么不同。目前股息相当小且毫无意义，但公司减少流通量的努力却绝非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02926f966d571a5d9af3865b5534bd75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the share count is<i>36% lower</i>than it was in 2012, which means that on a per-share basis, Apple's earnings are worth 36% more than they otherwise would be. Apple has far more cash than it could ever profitably reinvest in the business, and it produces more and more every year. That means we'll almost certainly see this continue to dwindle, providing a constant tailwind to EPS every year.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到股票数量是<i>降低36%</i>与2012年相比，这意味着按每股计算，苹果的收益比其他情况下高出36%。苹果拥有的现金远远超过了对该业务进行再投资的盈利能力，而且每年的产量都在增加。这意味着我们几乎肯定会看到这一数字继续减少，每年都会为每股收益提供持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> We therefore have ever-rising revenue, rising margins, and a lower share count, all of which support higher EPS. It is no surprise then that Apple's EPS revisions look the way they do.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的收入不断增长，利润率不断上升，股票数量不断减少，所有这些都支持更高的每股收益。因此，苹果的每股收益修正看起来是这样也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b562a3b59264989d5077b069db4633ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is exactly what you want to see, and it's the product of a company that continues to outperform expectations, intelligently return capital to shareholders, and continue to create and market world-class products that consumers cannot get enough of.</p><p><blockquote>这正是你想看到的，它是一家公司的产品，不断超越预期，明智地向股东返还资本，并继续创造和营销消费者百看不厌的世界级产品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation reset creates a buying chance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值重置创造买入机会</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, we all know valuations are stretched in a lot of places for a lot of different stocks, and Apple is no different. We can see below that its forward PE is 28X today, versus a three-year average of 23X. However, it's well off its high of 37X, and I'd argue that given its acceleration of revenue and margins, Apple should be more highly valued than it was in the past three years. The simple fact is that the company's earnings stream has improved greatly, so why shouldn't the valuation?</p><p><blockquote>现在，我们都知道很多不同股票的估值在很多地方都过高，苹果也不例外。我们可以在下面看到，目前其远期市盈率为28倍，而三年平均市盈率为23倍。然而，它远低于37倍的高点，我认为，鉴于其收入和利润率的加速增长，苹果的估值应该比过去三年更高。简单的事实是，公司的盈利流已经大大改善，那么估值为什么不应该呢？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3375c0e3b0081634279d2f828195612\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the company's growth trajectory, and including the fact that we should see some pent-up demand from fiscal 2021 moved into fiscal 2022 due to supply chain issues, I see this valuation as quite enticing. In fact, I think there's a lot more upside potential to 28X earnings than there is downside potential, so when we combine the technical picture with the fundamentals - including this valuation - I cannot see any path other than a bullish one for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该公司的增长轨迹，包括由于供应链问题，我们应该会看到一些从2021财年被压抑的需求转移到2022财年，我认为这个估值相当诱人。事实上，我认为28倍市盈率的上行潜力远大于下行潜力，因此当我们将技术面与基本面（包括这个估值）结合起来时，除了看涨苹果之外，我看不到任何其他道路。</blockquote></p><p> I'm certainly no Apple perma-bull, but when I objectively evaluate this company's prospects and the outlook for the stock, I can only reach one conclusion: it's a buy on its way to new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>我当然不是苹果的永久看涨者，但当我客观评估这家公司的前景和股票的前景时，我只能得出一个结论：这是一个正在创下历史新高的买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472312-apple-heres-your-chance\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472312-apple-heres-your-chance","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198352","content_text":"Summary\n\nAAPL has returned to strong price support, and I believe it will turn higher from here.\nThe company's fundamentals continue to improve in a variety of ways, and supply chain issues are just noise.\nThe stock is a buy and I believe will make new all-time highs in the relatively near future.\n\nAleksandarNakic/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe selloff that took place last Friday was certainly unexpected. A new COVID variant is never a good thing - for a variety of reasons - and the market sold first and asked questions later. The good news is that selling created some great entry points on leading stocks, and in this article, I'll update my views on technology mothership Apple(AAPL), which I believe just hit very strong support, and is now ready for a run to a new all-time high.\nApple has been a model portfolio stock in my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service,Timely Trader, since the service's inception, and by all evidence, appears poised to maintain its position. The portfolio is re-evaluated every month to ensure our capital is deployed effectively, and Apple continues to make the cut. Below I'll explain why the noise around the supply chain is just that, and why the stock has positioned itself for continued highs into 2022.\n\nWe'll take a brief look at the chart, because I think this pretty clearly illustrates why Apple is a buy right now. First, the stock made a new all-time high earlier this month on very heavy volume, which is a bullish trait. It means buyers were out in force while the share price was rising, indicating a lot of market participation with the new high. That coincided with a new high in the accumulation/distribution line, which measures whether the stock is finishing nearer to the high or low for the day. A higher A/D line means buyers are active during the day, and is another bullish trait; Apple is exhibiting this as well.\nThe stock was overbought during the rally - as measured by the 14-day RSI - but has since pulled back meaningfully during this consolidation. That's completely expected and totally fine, as it means the bulls can now make another run higher. And finally, the PPO is in very bullish territory, and is continuing to move higher, so I see no issues with momentum despite the recent pullback.\nIn short, Apple's chart looks great, and with support at ~$157, which was the prior breakout level, as well as the rising 20-day EMA (in red above), I see a lot of reasons to be bullish today.\nNow, let's take a look at the fundamental case for Apple, which I think remains as strong as it has ever been.\nIgnore the noise, Apple is still dominant\nApple's Q4 earnings showed a rare revenue miss and profit number that was only in line with expectations, which is quite unusual for this juggernaut. However, as we all know, Apple and others are being heavily impacted by supply chain woes that have absolutely taken over the conversation when it comes to the economy in recent months. Apple, like any other manufacturer, needs its supply chain to be functioning at full speed in order to maximize revenue, but these things are largely out of its control. Apple suffered for that in Q4, but instead of focusing on the report itself, which you can read all about in a variety of places, let's look at how Apple may respond in the fiscal year that just began.\nThere is evidence to suggest that Apple's supply chain issues that negatively impacted the fourth quarter, and indeed, October as well, are abating. Keep in mind that Apple's suppliers have massive incentives to keep their components flowing to Apple to make phones and other devices, so there are literally thousands of people across the world working to address Apple's supply chain issues. With the iPhone 13 cycle ramping up, and China showing strong demand for Apple products once again, all looks well.\nKeep in mind also that selling the stock because Apple cannot keep up with demand is a bit counterintuitive. Generally, you want to sell stocks that have too much supply and not enough demand; Apple has the opposite problem, which indicates two things. First, pricing power should remain quite strong given the demand/supply imbalance, and second, when supply does catch up to demand, we'll see higher volumes at strong prices. Why would you sell a stock with these characteristics?\nNow, let's take a look at revenue estimates to see how analysts see Apple moving forward given the supply chain issues are well-known.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nWe can see that Apple's estimates continue to move up and to the right, although one could argue the pace of increases has slowed. That's okay, because the important thing is that we continue to see higher and higher revenue estimates for the years to come. I'd also offer that Apple has generally performed quite well against revenue estimates, which is why Q4's revenue miss took people by surprise. I'll reiterate the revenue miss was due to supply chain issues outside of the company's control, and therefore shouldn't be blown out of proportion; it's transitory.\nNow, another key to the bull thesis is that Apple's margins are flying, which we can see below. I've plotted trailing-twelve-months revenue and operating margins to illustrate how operating leverage is working for Apple.\nSource: TIKR.com\nRevenue on a TTM basis was actually pretty flat for a couple of years, but in the past handful of quarters, has flown higher. With that, operating margins have moved significantly higher as well, with the September 2020 quarter posting 24% operating margins, while this year's September quarter posting TTM margins of 30%. That's a 25% increase in the amount of profit per dollar of revenue Apple produces, which is enormous to say the least. And as we'll see in just a moment, those gains look set to continue.\nBelow we have TTM gross margins and SG&A costs, which are the two main components of operating margins, to illustrate how Apple has achieved its profitability gains.\nSource: TIKR.com\nSG&A costs have declined from just over 7% of revenue to only 6% of revenue as of the most recent quarter, while gross margins are up from ~38% to ~42% in the same period. That means Apple is gaining on both sides of the equation, showing strong margins through pricing power, and reducing relative costs to produce revenue. This is how Apple has managed to boost profitability so much in the past few quarters, and it all hinges upon higher revenue.\nThe bottom line is that so long as revenue is rising, we should see steady or higher gross margins, and lower SG&A costs. These things combine to create higher profitability per dollar of revenue, so we get this supercharged impact on earnings growth where revenue is higher, and the profit per dollar is higher. If you're an Apple bull, you want to keep your eye on revenue because it's driving everything.\nSwitching gears, Apple has been a very strong returner of capital in recent years, and that is no different today. The dividend is pretty small and meaningless at this point, but the company's efforts to reduce the float are anything but.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see the share count is36% lowerthan it was in 2012, which means that on a per-share basis, Apple's earnings are worth 36% more than they otherwise would be. Apple has far more cash than it could ever profitably reinvest in the business, and it produces more and more every year. That means we'll almost certainly see this continue to dwindle, providing a constant tailwind to EPS every year.\nWe therefore have ever-rising revenue, rising margins, and a lower share count, all of which support higher EPS. It is no surprise then that Apple's EPS revisions look the way they do.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThis is exactly what you want to see, and it's the product of a company that continues to outperform expectations, intelligently return capital to shareholders, and continue to create and market world-class products that consumers cannot get enough of.\nValuation reset creates a buying chance\nNow, we all know valuations are stretched in a lot of places for a lot of different stocks, and Apple is no different. We can see below that its forward PE is 28X today, versus a three-year average of 23X. However, it's well off its high of 37X, and I'd argue that given its acceleration of revenue and margins, Apple should be more highly valued than it was in the past three years. The simple fact is that the company's earnings stream has improved greatly, so why shouldn't the valuation?\nSource: TIKR.com\nGiven the company's growth trajectory, and including the fact that we should see some pent-up demand from fiscal 2021 moved into fiscal 2022 due to supply chain issues, I see this valuation as quite enticing. In fact, I think there's a lot more upside potential to 28X earnings than there is downside potential, so when we combine the technical picture with the fundamentals - including this valuation - I cannot see any path other than a bullish one for Apple.\nI'm certainly no Apple perma-bull, but when I objectively evaluate this company's prospects and the outlook for the stock, I can only reach one conclusion: it's a buy on its way to new all-time highs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877902505,"gmtCreate":1637853297741,"gmtModify":1637853297843,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089116574465250","authorIdStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877902505","repostId":"2186916023","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879127871,"gmtCreate":1636693375849,"gmtModify":1636693376149,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089116574465250","authorIdStr":"4089116574465250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879127871","repostId":"1104158261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}