逆光飞翔_0326的个人主页 - 老虎社区

逆光飞翔_0326

逆光飞翔_0326

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逆光飞翔_0326

03-11

抄底的好机会，错过等十年

逆光飞翔_0326

2023-02-09

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@逆光飞翔_0326:慢慢等待，总会翻盘的

逆光飞翔_0326

2023-02-09

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

雾里看花？美联储留悬念，投资者心里慌

逆光飞翔_0326

2023-02-08

回复 @芜湖哈鲁:OK//@芜湖哈鲁:好评论

@让自己更富有:[微笑] [开心] [财迷] [呆住] [得意] [害羞] [真香] [真香] [惊讶] [无语] [龇牙] [龇牙] [可爱] [黑眼圈] [无语] [流泪] [得意] [惊吓] [捂脸] [开心] [开心] [开心] [生气] [愤怒] [惊吓] [可爱] 哈哈哈哈

逆光飞翔_0326

2023-02-08

//@一笑而过者也: good good！good

@侃见财经:由“恐惧”走向“贪婪”，巴菲特嗅到了什么？

逆光飞翔_0326

2023-02-08

可以的

@让自己更富有:[微笑] [开心] [财迷] [呆住] [得意] [害羞] [真香] [真香] [惊讶] [无语] [龇牙] [龇牙] [可爱] [黑眼圈] [无语] [流泪] [得意] [惊吓] [捂脸] [开心] [开心] [开心] [生气] [愤怒] [惊吓] [可爱] 哈哈哈哈

逆光飞翔_0326

2023-02-08

nice的表情

@让自己更富有:[微笑] [开心] [财迷] [呆住] [得意] [害羞] [真香] [真香] [惊讶] [无语] [龇牙] [龇牙] [可爱] [黑眼圈] [无语] [流泪] [得意] [惊吓] [捂脸] [开心] [开心] [开心] [生气] [愤怒] [惊吓] [可爱] 哈哈哈哈

逆光飞翔_0326

2022-07-20

赶快涨

@让自己更富有:$老虎证券(TIGR)$涨涨涨

逆光飞翔_0326

2022-05-09

回复 @一笑而过者也2:可以啊//@一笑而过者也2:好

抱歉，原内容已删除

逆光飞翔_0326

2022-05-09

good//@一笑而过者也2:hei hei hei， good

@银环蛇:$新东方(EDU)$买3个月有十几倍的收入

逆光飞翔_0326

2022-05-09

可以//@一笑而过者也2: good good！

@侃见财经:由“恐惧”走向“贪婪”，巴菲特嗅到了什么？

逆光飞翔_0326

2022-04-18

//@一笑而过者也2: 哈哈哈 test

@梭哈致富:聊聊我是如何做到2年100倍收益的

逆光飞翔_0326

2022-01-27

慢慢等待，总会翻盘的

逆光飞翔_0326

2022-01-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@小虎活动:加入滑雪夺金赛，赢最高2022美元股票代金券，还有限量版小虎盲盒等你拿！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 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Schlossberg）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，美联储依然没有释放任何政策转向的信号，现在的情况符合他们的职责和目标，通胀降温的同时劳动力市场保持健康，这也将支持短期内政策的延续性。摩根大通经济学家费罗利（Michael Feroli）则写道，鲍威尔表态与上周美联储会议后基调“非常相似”。“这是一个数据依赖的立场，他在强调什么样的条件需要或多或少的约束。因为美联储正在关注经济对加息的反应，特别是通胀是否延续去年中期以来的持续下降。距离下次会议还有六周时间，期间还有大量的经济数据公布，对于美联储而言，现在远没有到作出决定的时候。 政策制定者对两个方向的冲击都持开放态度。如果持续强劲的就业增长导致工资和物价上涨，或将批准更紧的货币政策，但通胀继续降温也可能会影响政策决定。在本周截至目前的表态中，只有纽约联储主席威廉姆斯等少数官员谈到了终端利率的具体目标。第一财经记者注意到，在1月会议前两周，美联储内部在加息25个基点和50个基点问题上依然存在分歧，直到12月CPI数据出炉后委员会内部才达成共识。考虑到美联储需要评估货币政策的累积效应，最终的决定可能同样要到3月会议前夕才能明朗。目前，商品反通胀（disinflation）趋势基本形成，与房租相关的物价压力有望在年中出现转折，而服务性通胀的上涨趋势似乎还没有出现明显拐点，劳动力市场持续火热似乎是个隐患。施罗斯伯格向记者分析道，新冠疫情很大程度上改变了美国劳动力市场的结构，包括人口老龄化、提前退休和移民疲软等因素，拖累劳动力供应，令就业参与率难以恢复到疫情前的水平。他认为，这些变化可能预示着就业市场对美联储的限制政策反应缓慢，从而增加不确定性。令美联储稍感欣慰的是，薪资增速正在逐步放缓。美国劳工部数据显示，去年四季度企业薪资福利支出季率环比上升进一步放缓。美联储经济状况褐皮书也显示，劳动力供应增加缓和了整体极度紧张的局面。不少美联储官员希望看到劳动力市场进一步放松，使得薪资放缓带动需求降温和物价回落。施罗斯伯格认为，美联储3月加息25个基点已经形成共识，但后面的政策路径依然不太明朗。在美联储看到更多劳动力成本下降的迹象之前，很可能会继续推动1-2次加息，然后将利率维持更长时间以观察实际效果。美股或面临获利回吐经历了年初反弹后，美联储政策立场、企业财报和经济前景的最新变化令市场信心有所动摇，衡量投资者情绪的恐慌指数VIX止跌回升，获利回吐压力正在聚集。经济衰退依然是机构眼里美股上半年的最大风险点。除了劳动力市场以外，经济动能松动迹象随处可见。占到美国GDP近1/4的房地产和制造业持续低迷，纽约联储1月制造业指数降至疫情以来新低。作为美国经济的主要动能，消费端降温信号开始拉响警报，去年12月全美零售销售月率环比下降1.1%，年末传统假日季旺季不旺，高通胀和利率上升让家庭开支变得捉襟见肘。本周美联储公布的消费数据显示，去年12月美国消费者的信贷消费量增加116亿美元，增速降至2.9%，这是2021年以来的最小增幅。通胀而言，信贷增量被视为重要风向标，消费者倾向于在经济向好的情况下打开钱包，而在不景气的时候减少不必要的开支。随着美联储加息周期延续，经济放缓对需求的打压最终将反映到企业业绩上，进而冲击市场估值和股市大幅下跌。在本周发布的一份报告中，摩根大通策略师克拉诺维奇（Marko Kolanovic）写道，经济压力下企业将面临着要么裁员要么利润率恶化的艰难选择， “现在的反通胀并不是值得庆祝的。利率处于限制性的状态，将给经济带来更多压力。而工资上涨仍将拖累企业利润率，可能会导致出现更多裁员。 ”摩根士丹利首席股票策略师威尔逊（Michael Wilson）表示，新年以来美股的涨势将结束，投资者是在与美联储进行对抗。他认为，由于美联储不愿转向更为温和的立场，2008年以来最严重的企业盈利衰退的现实正再次被错误定价，一季度末或者二季度初美股将出现本轮调整的新低点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".DJI":1,".IXIC":1,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622426424,"gmtCreate":1675827177868,"gmtModify":1675827180241,"author":{"id":"4089682969672580","authorId":"4089682969672580","name":"逆光飞翔_0326","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95dc3f308c0ab5766af2f777a0f91ed6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089682969672580","authorIdStr":"4089682969672580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"回复 <a 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[开心] [财迷] [呆住] [得意] [害羞] [真香] [真香] [惊讶] [无语] [龇牙] [龇牙] [可爱] [黑眼圈] [无语] [流泪] [得意] [惊吓] [捂脸] [开心] [开心] [开心] [生气] [愤怒] [惊吓] [可爱] 哈哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628647115","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622428016,"gmtCreate":1675826350436,"gmtModify":1675826353114,"author":{"id":"4089682969672580","authorId":"4089682969672580","name":"逆光飞翔_0326","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95dc3f308c0ab5766af2f777a0f91ed6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089682969672580","authorIdStr":"4089682969672580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3578301035307164\">@一笑而过者也</a>: good 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>&nbsp;一季度总共买入了518亿美元的股票，同时卖出了103亿美元，也就是说一季度伯克希尔净买入415亿美元。据悉，这笔现金大致是伯克希尔现金储备的小三分之一左右。巴菲特表示，虽然公司现金水平大幅下降，但是公司将保留足够安全的现金。巴菲特在股东大会开场评论就表示道：“不会改变的是，我们手头总有大量的现金。”不仅如此，伯克希尔一改过去的常态，四月以来并未进行任何股票回购的行为。巴菲特有一句名言，别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。所以，巴菲特的买入和卖出行为总是异于常人，且难以琢磨。我们试图梳理巴菲特近七年的投资标的，大概就能清晰地感觉到巴菲特是如何战胜市场的了。2015年，全球经济进入一个新的爆发期。以移动互联网为首的新经济快速爆发，并且以数倍的增速成为全球新的增长引擎。以亚马逊<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>&nbsp;、微软<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;、谷歌、meta为代表的互联网企业的股价都出现了50度以上的仰角。短短几年时间，苹果、微软等企业的市值就轻松突破了1万亿美元关口，紧接着就是突破2万亿美元关口，甚至摸到了3万亿美","listText":"一年一度的投资人的“朝圣”落下帷幕。今年，巴菲特一改过去六七年谨慎的常态，而是加快了投资的步伐，在疫情以及加息的大背景下，巴菲特的行为是否有特殊的意义？巴菲特是否已经放弃了过去五六年坚持的投资逻辑，开始由“恐惧”转向“贪婪”？这些，在本次的股东大会上都能找到答案。股东大会上，巴菲特表示伯克希尔<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>&nbsp;一季度总共买入了518亿美元的股票，同时卖出了103亿美元，也就是说一季度伯克希尔净买入415亿美元。据悉，这笔现金大致是伯克希尔现金储备的小三分之一左右。巴菲特表示，虽然公司现金水平大幅下降，但是公司将保留足够安全的现金。巴菲特在股东大会开场评论就表示道：“不会改变的是，我们手头总有大量的现金。”不仅如此，伯克希尔一改过去的常态，四月以来并未进行任何股票回购的行为。巴菲特有一句名言，别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。所以，巴菲特的买入和卖出行为总是异于常人，且难以琢磨。我们试图梳理巴菲特近七年的投资标的，大概就能清晰地感觉到巴菲特是如何战胜市场的了。2015年，全球经济进入一个新的爆发期。以移动互联网为首的新经济快速爆发，并且以数倍的增速成为全球新的增长引擎。以亚马逊<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>&nbsp;、微软<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;、谷歌、meta为代表的互联网企业的股价都出现了50度以上的仰角。短短几年时间，苹果、微软等企业的市值就轻松突破了1万亿美元关口，紧接着就是突破2万亿美元关口，甚至摸到了3万亿美","text":"一年一度的投资人的“朝圣”落下帷幕。今年，巴菲特一改过去六七年谨慎的常态，而是加快了投资的步伐，在疫情以及加息的大背景下，巴菲特的行为是否有特殊的意义？巴菲特是否已经放弃了过去五六年坚持的投资逻辑，开始由“恐惧”转向“贪婪”？这些，在本次的股东大会上都能找到答案。股东大会上，巴菲特表示伯克希尔$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ 一季度总共买入了518亿美元的股票，同时卖出了103亿美元，也就是说一季度伯克希尔净买入415亿美元。据悉，这笔现金大致是伯克希尔现金储备的小三分之一左右。巴菲特表示，虽然公司现金水平大幅下降，但是公司将保留足够安全的现金。巴菲特在股东大会开场评论就表示道：“不会改变的是，我们手头总有大量的现金。”不仅如此，伯克希尔一改过去的常态，四月以来并未进行任何股票回购的行为。巴菲特有一句名言，别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。所以，巴菲特的买入和卖出行为总是异于常人，且难以琢磨。我们试图梳理巴菲特近七年的投资标的，大概就能清晰地感觉到巴菲特是如何战胜市场的了。2015年，全球经济进入一个新的爆发期。以移动互联网为首的新经济快速爆发，并且以数倍的增速成为全球新的增长引擎。以亚马逊$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 、微软$微软(MSFT)$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>&nbsp;一季度总共买入了518亿美元的股票，同时卖出了103亿美元，也就是说一季度伯克希尔净买入415亿美元。据悉，这笔现金大致是伯克希尔现金储备的小三分之一左右。巴菲特表示，虽然公司现金水平大幅下降，但是公司将保留足够安全的现金。巴菲特在股东大会开场评论就表示道：“不会改变的是，我们手头总有大量的现金。”不仅如此，伯克希尔一改过去的常态，四月以来并未进行任何股票回购的行为。巴菲特有一句名言，别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。所以，巴菲特的买入和卖出行为总是异于常人，且难以琢磨。我们试图梳理巴菲特近七年的投资标的，大概就能清晰地感觉到巴菲特是如何战胜市场的了。2015年，全球经济进入一个新的爆发期。以移动互联网为首的新经济快速爆发，并且以数倍的增速成为全球新的增长引擎。以亚马逊<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>&nbsp;、微软<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;、谷歌、meta为代表的互联网企业的股价都出现了50度以上的仰角。短短几年时间，苹果、微软等企业的市值就轻松突破了1万亿美元关口，紧接着就是突破2万亿美元关口，甚至摸到了3万亿美","listText":"一年一度的投资人的“朝圣”落下帷幕。今年，巴菲特一改过去六七年谨慎的常态，而是加快了投资的步伐，在疫情以及加息的大背景下，巴菲特的行为是否有特殊的意义？巴菲特是否已经放弃了过去五六年坚持的投资逻辑，开始由“恐惧”转向“贪婪”？这些，在本次的股东大会上都能找到答案。股东大会上，巴菲特表示伯克希尔<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>&nbsp;一季度总共买入了518亿美元的股票，同时卖出了103亿美元，也就是说一季度伯克希尔净买入415亿美元。据悉，这笔现金大致是伯克希尔现金储备的小三分之一左右。巴菲特表示，虽然公司现金水平大幅下降，但是公司将保留足够安全的现金。巴菲特在股东大会开场评论就表示道：“不会改变的是，我们手头总有大量的现金。”不仅如此，伯克希尔一改过去的常态，四月以来并未进行任何股票回购的行为。巴菲特有一句名言，别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。所以，巴菲特的买入和卖出行为总是异于常人，且难以琢磨。我们试图梳理巴菲特近七年的投资标的，大概就能清晰地感觉到巴菲特是如何战胜市场的了。2015年，全球经济进入一个新的爆发期。以移动互联网为首的新经济快速爆发，并且以数倍的增速成为全球新的增长引擎。以亚马逊<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>&nbsp;、微软<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;、谷歌、meta为代表的互联网企业的股价都出现了50度以上的仰角。短短几年时间，苹果、微软等企业的市值就轻松突破了1万亿美元关口，紧接着就是突破2万亿美元关口，甚至摸到了3万亿美","text":"一年一度的投资人的“朝圣”落下帷幕。今年，巴菲特一改过去六七年谨慎的常态，而是加快了投资的步伐，在疫情以及加息的大背景下，巴菲特的行为是否有特殊的意义？巴菲特是否已经放弃了过去五六年坚持的投资逻辑，开始由“恐惧”转向“贪婪”？这些，在本次的股东大会上都能找到答案。股东大会上，巴菲特表示伯克希尔$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ 一季度总共买入了518亿美元的股票，同时卖出了103亿美元，也就是说一季度伯克希尔净买入415亿美元。据悉，这笔现金大致是伯克希尔现金储备的小三分之一左右。巴菲特表示，虽然公司现金水平大幅下降，但是公司将保留足够安全的现金。巴菲特在股东大会开场评论就表示道：“不会改变的是，我们手头总有大量的现金。”不仅如此，伯克希尔一改过去的常态，四月以来并未进行任何股票回购的行为。巴菲特有一句名言，别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。所以，巴菲特的买入和卖出行为总是异于常人，且难以琢磨。我们试图梳理巴菲特近七年的投资标的，大概就能清晰地感觉到巴菲特是如何战胜市场的了。2015年，全球经济进入一个新的爆发期。以移动互联网为首的新经济快速爆发，并且以数倍的增速成为全球新的增长引擎。以亚马逊$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 、微软$微软(MSFT)$ 、谷歌、meta为代表的互联网企业的股价都出现了50度以上的仰角。短短几年时间，苹果、微软等企业的市值就轻松突破了1万亿美元关口，紧接着就是突破2万亿美元关口，甚至摸到了3万亿美","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7038fbc9f3c054277a880ce6feb237b1","width":"632","height":"429"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d99130d0a38454a70440ad9d3990e2","width":"632","height":"438"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216d47e6454ac3efe592c56d1b9f1c78","width":"632","height":"412"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616313426","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":611949876,"gmtCreate":1650282817312,"gmtModify":1650282817312,"author":{"id":"4089682969672580","authorId":"4089682969672580","name":"逆光飞翔_0326","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95dc3f308c0ab5766af2f777a0f91ed6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089682969672580","authorIdStr":"4089682969672580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3578301035307164\">@一笑而过者也2</a>: 哈哈哈&nbsp; test","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3578301035307164\">@一笑而过者也2</a>: 哈哈哈&nbsp; test","text":"//@一笑而过者也2: 哈哈哈 test","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/611949876","repostId":"610829806","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":610829806,"gmtCreate":1648554804856,"gmtModify":1648555547095,"author":{"id":"3554892403391087","authorId":"3554892403391087","name":"梭哈致富","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a2f44ad329a279c3722414f20efa06","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554892403391087","authorIdStr":"3554892403391087"},"themes":[],"title":"聊聊我是如何做到2年100倍收益的","htmlText":"什么是期权？梭哈哥给出的见解是：时间+波动。梭哈哥自身理科出身，坚持提升概率和胜率，以此来击败对手，赚取收益，过程做把自己变成一个无情的收割机器。股票之道在于人弃我取，梭哈哥成功的交易非常的多，近期别人做空3倍纳指的时候，是sell put收割了一波；别人做多原油的时候，我sell call赚了一波；别人做空俄罗斯的时候，我sell put强势拿下权利金。别人做空中概的时候，我一个sell 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moon，实际都是庄家的炒作，最终一地鸡毛。你不知道amc能涨到多少，但是amc最终会跌下来却是一个必然的结果。amc目前4月1号的期权，40行权价，波动率去到400+，这个时候买call几乎是把钱扔到水池里，反其道而行之，我们可以直接做sell call，赚取权利金，只要横盘一天，2块钱的权利金就剩下1.5不到。当然sell call是世界上最危险的操作，亏损无限，收益有限，但是从概率角度来说，做好止损和仓位控制，我们90%以上会是赢家。梭哈哥赠送一句，永不梭哈永不满仓，仓位控制这门学问学明白了，受益匪浅。最后祝大家发财致富‌[财迷] ‌‌[财迷] ‌‌[财迷] 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Schlossberg）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，美联储依然没有释放任何政策转向的信号，现在的情况符合他们的职责和目标，通胀降温的同时劳动力市场保持健康，这也将支持短期内政策的延续性。摩根大通经济学家费罗利（Michael Feroli）则写道，鲍威尔表态与上周美联储会议后基调“非常相似”。“这是一个数据依赖的立场，他在强调什么样的条件需要或多或少的约束。因为美联储正在关注经济对加息的反应，特别是通胀是否延续去年中期以来的持续下降。距离下次会议还有六周时间，期间还有大量的经济数据公布，对于美联储而言，现在远没有到作出决定的时候。 政策制定者对两个方向的冲击都持开放态度。如果持续强劲的就业增长导致工资和物价上涨，或将批准更紧的货币政策，但通胀继续降温也可能会影响政策决定。在本周截至目前的表态中，只有纽约联储主席威廉姆斯等少数官员谈到了终端利率的具体目标。第一财经记者注意到，在1月会议前两周，美联储内部在加息25个基点和50个基点问题上依然存在分歧，直到12月CPI数据出炉后委员会内部才达成共识。考虑到美联储需要评估货币政策的累积效应，最终的决定可能同样要到3月会议前夕才能明朗。目前，商品反通胀（disinflation）趋势基本形成，与房租相关的物价压力有望在年中出现转折，而服务性通胀的上涨趋势似乎还没有出现明显拐点，劳动力市场持续火热似乎是个隐患。施罗斯伯格向记者分析道，新冠疫情很大程度上改变了美国劳动力市场的结构，包括人口老龄化、提前退休和移民疲软等因素，拖累劳动力供应，令就业参与率难以恢复到疫情前的水平。他认为，这些变化可能预示着就业市场对美联储的限制政策反应缓慢，从而增加不确定性。令美联储稍感欣慰的是，薪资增速正在逐步放缓。美国劳工部数据显示，去年四季度企业薪资福利支出季率环比上升进一步放缓。美联储经济状况褐皮书也显示，劳动力供应增加缓和了整体极度紧张的局面。不少美联储官员希望看到劳动力市场进一步放松，使得薪资放缓带动需求降温和物价回落。施罗斯伯格认为，美联储3月加息25个基点已经形成共识，但后面的政策路径依然不太明朗。在美联储看到更多劳动力成本下降的迹象之前，很可能会继续推动1-2次加息，然后将利率维持更长时间以观察实际效果。美股或面临获利回吐经历了年初反弹后，美联储政策立场、企业财报和经济前景的最新变化令市场信心有所动摇，衡量投资者情绪的恐慌指数VIX止跌回升，获利回吐压力正在聚集。经济衰退依然是机构眼里美股上半年的最大风险点。除了劳动力市场以外，经济动能松动迹象随处可见。占到美国GDP近1/4的房地产和制造业持续低迷，纽约联储1月制造业指数降至疫情以来新低。作为美国经济的主要动能，消费端降温信号开始拉响警报，去年12月全美零售销售月率环比下降1.1%，年末传统假日季旺季不旺，高通胀和利率上升让家庭开支变得捉襟见肘。本周美联储公布的消费数据显示，去年12月美国消费者的信贷消费量增加116亿美元，增速降至2.9%，这是2021年以来的最小增幅。通胀而言，信贷增量被视为重要风向标，消费者倾向于在经济向好的情况下打开钱包，而在不景气的时候减少不必要的开支。随着美联储加息周期延续，经济放缓对需求的打压最终将反映到企业业绩上，进而冲击市场估值和股市大幅下跌。在本周发布的一份报告中，摩根大通策略师克拉诺维奇（Marko 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put又赚了一波。上上周的muln，上周大麻喊打喊杀，梭哈怎么做呢，反手操作，晒图震场。当然梭哈哥也曾经是个小菜鸟，最早的时候以为股票做sell put很稳，没跌破赚权利金，跌破接正股。去年做了理想的sell put，结果中概一裂再裂，直接颠覆了我的想象力，账户断崖式亏损。后来涅槃重生，总结了一个道理，垃圾股暴涨之后必下跌，垃圾股暴跌之后必横盘或阴跌。所以我经常选择在垃圾股暴涨，把期权波动率拉升之后，交易量开始下滑的时候做空，十拿九稳。顺便说一下amc接下来的操作策略，很多人喊着to the moon，实际都是庄家的炒作，最终一地鸡毛。你不知道amc能涨到多少，但是amc最终会跌下来却是一个必然的结果。amc目前4月1号的期权，40行权价，波动率去到400+，这个时候买call几乎是把钱扔到水池里，反其道而行之，我们可以直接做sell call，赚取权利金，只要横盘一天，2块钱的权利金就剩下1.5不到。当然sell call是世界上最危险的操作，亏损无限，收益有限，但是从概率角度来说，做好止损和仓位控制，我们90%以上会是赢家。梭哈哥赠送一句，永不梭哈永不满仓，仓位控制这门学问学明白了，受益匪浅。最后祝大家发财致富‌<a href=\"\">[财迷]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[财迷]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[财迷]&nbsp;</a>‌‌","listText":"什么是期权？梭哈哥给出的见解是：时间+波动。梭哈哥自身理科出身，坚持提升概率和胜率，以此来击败对手，赚取收益，过程做把自己变成一个无情的收割机器。股票之道在于人弃我取，梭哈哥成功的交易非常的多，近期别人做空3倍纳指的时候，是sell put收割了一波；别人做多原油的时候，我sell call赚了一波；别人做空俄罗斯的时候，我sell put强势拿下权利金。别人做空中概的时候，我一个sell put又赚了一波。上上周的muln，上周大麻喊打喊杀，梭哈怎么做呢，反手操作，晒图震场。当然梭哈哥也曾经是个小菜鸟，最早的时候以为股票做sell put很稳，没跌破赚权利金，跌破接正股。去年做了理想的sell put，结果中概一裂再裂，直接颠覆了我的想象力，账户断崖式亏损。后来涅槃重生，总结了一个道理，垃圾股暴涨之后必下跌，垃圾股暴跌之后必横盘或阴跌。所以我经常选择在垃圾股暴涨，把期权波动率拉升之后，交易量开始下滑的时候做空，十拿九稳。顺便说一下amc接下来的操作策略，很多人喊着to the moon，实际都是庄家的炒作，最终一地鸡毛。你不知道amc能涨到多少，但是amc最终会跌下来却是一个必然的结果。amc目前4月1号的期权，40行权价，波动率去到400+，这个时候买call几乎是把钱扔到水池里，反其道而行之，我们可以直接做sell call，赚取权利金，只要横盘一天，2块钱的权利金就剩下1.5不到。当然sell call是世界上最危险的操作，亏损无限，收益有限，但是从概率角度来说，做好止损和仓位控制，我们90%以上会是赢家。梭哈哥赠送一句，永不梭哈永不满仓，仓位控制这门学问学明白了，受益匪浅。最后祝大家发财致富‌<a href=\"\">[财迷]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[财迷]&nbsp;</a>‌‌<a href=\"\">[财迷]&nbsp;</a>‌‌","text":"什么是期权？梭哈哥给出的见解是：时间+波动。梭哈哥自身理科出身，坚持提升概率和胜率，以此来击败对手，赚取收益，过程做把自己变成一个无情的收割机器。股票之道在于人弃我取，梭哈哥成功的交易非常的多，近期别人做空3倍纳指的时候，是sell put收割了一波；别人做多原油的时候，我sell call赚了一波；别人做空俄罗斯的时候，我sell put强势拿下权利金。别人做空中概的时候，我一个sell put又赚了一波。上上周的muln，上周大麻喊打喊杀，梭哈怎么做呢，反手操作，晒图震场。当然梭哈哥也曾经是个小菜鸟，最早的时候以为股票做sell put很稳，没跌破赚权利金，跌破接正股。去年做了理想的sell put，结果中概一裂再裂，直接颠覆了我的想象力，账户断崖式亏损。后来涅槃重生，总结了一个道理，垃圾股暴涨之后必下跌，垃圾股暴跌之后必横盘或阴跌。所以我经常选择在垃圾股暴涨，把期权波动率拉升之后，交易量开始下滑的时候做空，十拿九稳。顺便说一下amc接下来的操作策略，很多人喊着to the moon，实际都是庄家的炒作，最终一地鸡毛。你不知道amc能涨到多少，但是amc最终会跌下来却是一个必然的结果。amc目前4月1号的期权，40行权价，波动率去到400+，这个时候买call几乎是把钱扔到水池里，反其道而行之，我们可以直接做sell call，赚取权利金，只要横盘一天，2块钱的权利金就剩下1.5不到。当然sell call是世界上最危险的操作，亏损无限，收益有限，但是从概率角度来说，做好止损和仓位控制，我们90%以上会是赢家。梭哈哥赠送一句，永不梭哈永不满仓，仓位控制这门学问学明白了，受益匪浅。最后祝大家发财致富‌[财迷] ‌‌[财迷] ‌‌[财迷] ‌‌","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73ff8820a9a290a2472b37a72a0598f","width":"200","height":"200"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b338d89aef7d2fb561d6c3668c48682e","width":"200","height":"200"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9f115dbd3d350a426fe97b53c297f8","width":"200","height":"200"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610829806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622426424,"gmtCreate":1675827177868,"gmtModify":1675827180241,"author":{"id":"4089682969672580","authorId":"4089682969672580","name":"逆光飞翔_0326","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95dc3f308c0ab5766af2f777a0f91ed6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089682969672580","authorIdStr":"4089682969672580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"回复 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4099144495721220\">@芜湖哈鲁</a>:OK//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4099144495721220\">@芜湖哈鲁</a>:好评论","listText":"回复 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4099144495721220\">@芜湖哈鲁</a>:OK//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4099144495721220\">@芜湖哈鲁</a>:好评论","text":"回复 @芜湖哈鲁:OK//@芜湖哈鲁:好评论","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622426424","repostId":"628647115","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628647115,"gmtCreate":1673235870037,"gmtModify":1673235873713,"author":{"id":"3578301035307164","authorId":"3578301035307164","name":"让自己更富有","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecea54bf796bfc06158ab3fa1eeab9b4","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578301035307164","authorIdStr":"3578301035307164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[害羞]&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[可爱]&nbsp;[黑眼圈]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[惊吓]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;[愤怒]&nbsp;[惊吓]&nbsp;[可爱]&nbsp;哈哈哈哈","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[害羞]&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[可爱]&nbsp;[黑眼圈]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[惊吓]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[生气]&nbsp;[愤怒]&nbsp;[惊吓]&nbsp;[可爱]&nbsp;哈哈哈哈","text":"[微笑] [开心] [财迷] [呆住] [得意] [害羞] [真香] [真香] [惊讶] [无语] [龇牙] [龇牙] [可爱] [黑眼圈] [无语] [流泪] [得意] [惊吓] [捂脸] [开心] [开心] [开心] [生气] [愤怒] [惊吓] [可爱] 哈哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628647115","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622428016,"gmtCreate":1675826350436,"gmtModify":1675826353114,"author":{"id":"4089682969672580","authorId":"4089682969672580","name":"逆光飞翔_0326","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95dc3f308c0ab5766af2f777a0f91ed6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089682969672580","authorIdStr":"4089682969672580"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3578301035307164\">@一笑而过者也</a>: good good！good","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3578301035307164\">@一笑而过者也</a>: good good！good","text":"//@一笑而过者也: good good！good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622428016","repostId":"616313426","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":616313426,"gmtCreate":1651461157513,"gmtModify":1651461228301,"author":{"id":"3570515415388899","authorId":"3570515415388899","name":"侃见财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58a85251003e9d3ca730ab71b7738ce8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570515415388899","authorIdStr":"3570515415388899"},"themes":[],"title":"由“恐惧”走向“贪婪”，巴菲特嗅到了什么？","htmlText":"一年一度的投资人的“朝圣”落下帷幕。今年，巴菲特一改过去六七年谨慎的常态，而是加快了投资的步伐，在疫情以及加息的大背景下，巴菲特的行为是否有特殊的意义？巴菲特是否已经放弃了过去五六年坚持的投资逻辑，开始由“恐惧”转向“贪婪”？这些，在本次的股东大会上都能找到答案。股东大会上，巴菲特表示伯克希尔<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>&nbsp;一季度总共买入了518亿美元的股票，同时卖出了103亿美元，也就是说一季度伯克希尔净买入415亿美元。据悉，这笔现金大致是伯克希尔现金储备的小三分之一左右。巴菲特表示，虽然公司现金水平大幅下降，但是公司将保留足够安全的现金。巴菲特在股东大会开场评论就表示道：“不会改变的是，我们手头总有大量的现金。”不仅如此，伯克希尔一改过去的常态，四月以来并未进行任何股票回购的行为。巴菲特有一句名言，别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。所以，巴菲特的买入和卖出行为总是异于常人，且难以琢磨。我们试图梳理巴菲特近七年的投资标的，大概就能清晰地感觉到巴菲特是如何战胜市场的了。2015年，全球经济进入一个新的爆发期。以移动互联网为首的新经济快速爆发，并且以数倍的增速成为全球新的增长引擎。以亚马逊<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>&nbsp;、微软<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;、谷歌、meta为代表的互联网企业的股价都出现了50度以上的仰角。短短几年时间，苹果、微软等企业的市值就轻松突破了1万亿美元关口，紧接着就是突破2万亿美元关口，甚至摸到了3万亿美","listText":"一年一度的投资人的“朝圣”落下帷幕。今年，巴菲特一改过去六七年谨慎的常态，而是加快了投资的步伐，在疫情以及加息的大背景下，巴菲特的行为是否有特殊的意义？巴菲特是否已经放弃了过去五六年坚持的投资逻辑，开始由“恐惧”转向“贪婪”？这些，在本次的股东大会上都能找到答案。股东大会上，巴菲特表示伯克希尔<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>&nbsp;一季度总共买入了518亿美元的股票，同时卖出了103亿美元，也就是说一季度伯克希尔净买入415亿美元。据悉，这笔现金大致是伯克希尔现金储备的小三分之一左右。巴菲特表示，虽然公司现金水平大幅下降，但是公司将保留足够安全的现金。巴菲特在股东大会开场评论就表示道：“不会改变的是，我们手头总有大量的现金。”不仅如此，伯克希尔一改过去的常态，四月以来并未进行任何股票回购的行为。巴菲特有一句名言，别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。所以，巴菲特的买入和卖出行为总是异于常人，且难以琢磨。我们试图梳理巴菲特近七年的投资标的，大概就能清晰地感觉到巴菲特是如何战胜市场的了。2015年，全球经济进入一个新的爆发期。以移动互联网为首的新经济快速爆发，并且以数倍的增速成为全球新的增长引擎。以亚马逊<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>&nbsp;、微软<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;、谷歌、meta为代表的互联网企业的股价都出现了50度以上的仰角。短短几年时间，苹果、微软等企业的市值就轻松突破了1万亿美元关口，紧接着就是突破2万亿美元关口，甚至摸到了3万亿美","text":"一年一度的投资人的“朝圣”落下帷幕。今年，巴菲特一改过去六七年谨慎的常态，而是加快了投资的步伐，在疫情以及加息的大背景下，巴菲特的行为是否有特殊的意义？巴菲特是否已经放弃了过去五六年坚持的投资逻辑，开始由“恐惧”转向“贪婪”？这些，在本次的股东大会上都能找到答案。股东大会上，巴菲特表示伯克希尔$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ 一季度总共买入了518亿美元的股票，同时卖出了103亿美元，也就是说一季度伯克希尔净买入415亿美元。据悉，这笔现金大致是伯克希尔现金储备的小三分之一左右。巴菲特表示，虽然公司现金水平大幅下降，但是公司将保留足够安全的现金。巴菲特在股东大会开场评论就表示道：“不会改变的是，我们手头总有大量的现金。”不仅如此，伯克希尔一改过去的常态，四月以来并未进行任何股票回购的行为。巴菲特有一句名言，别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。所以，巴菲特的买入和卖出行为总是异于常人，且难以琢磨。我们试图梳理巴菲特近七年的投资标的，大概就能清晰地感觉到巴菲特是如何战胜市场的了。2015年，全球经济进入一个新的爆发期。以移动互联网为首的新经济快速爆发，并且以数倍的增速成为全球新的增长引擎。以亚马逊$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 、微软$微软(MSFT)$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a>&nbsp;一季度总共买入了518亿美元的股票，同时卖出了103亿美元，也就是说一季度伯克希尔净买入415亿美元。据悉，这笔现金大致是伯克希尔现金储备的小三分之一左右。巴菲特表示，虽然公司现金水平大幅下降，但是公司将保留足够安全的现金。巴菲特在股东大会开场评论就表示道：“不会改变的是，我们手头总有大量的现金。”不仅如此，伯克希尔一改过去的常态，四月以来并未进行任何股票回购的行为。巴菲特有一句名言，别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。所以，巴菲特的买入和卖出行为总是异于常人，且难以琢磨。我们试图梳理巴菲特近七年的投资标的，大概就能清晰地感觉到巴菲特是如何战胜市场的了。2015年，全球经济进入一个新的爆发期。以移动互联网为首的新经济快速爆发，并且以数倍的增速成为全球新的增长引擎。以亚马逊<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>&nbsp;、微软<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;、谷歌、meta为代表的互联网企业的股价都出现了50度以上的仰角。短短几年时间，苹果、微软等企业的市值就轻松突破了1万亿美元关口，紧接着就是突破2万亿美元关口，甚至摸到了3万亿美","text":"一年一度的投资人的“朝圣”落下帷幕。今年，巴菲特一改过去六七年谨慎的常态，而是加快了投资的步伐，在疫情以及加息的大背景下，巴菲特的行为是否有特殊的意义？巴菲特是否已经放弃了过去五六年坚持的投资逻辑，开始由“恐惧”转向“贪婪”？这些，在本次的股东大会上都能找到答案。股东大会上，巴菲特表示伯克希尔$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ 一季度总共买入了518亿美元的股票，同时卖出了103亿美元，也就是说一季度伯克希尔净买入415亿美元。据悉，这笔现金大致是伯克希尔现金储备的小三分之一左右。巴菲特表示，虽然公司现金水平大幅下降，但是公司将保留足够安全的现金。巴菲特在股东大会开场评论就表示道：“不会改变的是，我们手头总有大量的现金。”不仅如此，伯克希尔一改过去的常态，四月以来并未进行任何股票回购的行为。巴菲特有一句名言，别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。所以，巴菲特的买入和卖出行为总是异于常人，且难以琢磨。我们试图梳理巴菲特近七年的投资标的，大概就能清晰地感觉到巴菲特是如何战胜市场的了。2015年，全球经济进入一个新的爆发期。以移动互联网为首的新经济快速爆发，并且以数倍的增速成为全球新的增长引擎。以亚马逊$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 、微软$微软(MSFT)$ 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玩家需操控小虎滑雪橇躲避障碍物，每局滑雪游戏中积分达到60分即可获得一枚奖牌，奖牌可用于幸运大转盘抽奖。有机会抽取小虎限量盲盒！另外，股票代金券，免佣卡等豪礼等你来抽！快来玩游戏赢奖励吧~ 活动结束后，奖牌榜排名Top 200都可以获得股票代金券奖励，最高价值2022美元！ ~小秘密~金牌榜上名列前茅的用户将有机会获得一整套小虎盲盒奖励哟！好运花落谁家，我们拭目以待~ 奖励详情如下：还等什么呢？ 点击参与活动","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0da28dd9e743692c0cc96fe6f364cd2","width":"832","height":"436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630952623","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}