Crazy_George的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Crazy_George

Crazy_George

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：江西

4关注

3粉丝

0主题

0勋章

09-03

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 赶紧下来，这个价位接人还不够有诚意

01-30

Replying to @devillares:你知道cuda是什么东西了吗就绕开[LOL]//@devillares:经过本人亲测，跑了模型，完全可以绕开CUDA进行调用 [开心]

01-09

前天新高的时候你没获利了结吗

2024-10-10

三季度财报时间都没出来，闹麻了[笑哭]

2024-10-08

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 诺奖都蹭AI，说明超导材料这些昨日黄花都是过去式了，现在最容易炒的概念就是AI。短期看好。

2024-09-04

AMD他很少提，LSI他演讲时经常说的，是他从完全的技术工程师到懂商业懂管理的经历

2024-08-28

Replying to @KEINS:上个季度就是这个剧本，这次不知道//@KEINS:希望你对吧，哎，挺搞心态的

2024-06-07

🤡

2024-02-27

[开心] 赢麻了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2024-02-22

$英特尔(INTC)$ 不愧是你，小英子[开心]

2024-02-05

你说400都行，说200不是小丑吗🤡

2024-01-11

如何评价1985的微软Windows在操作系统历史中的地位

“英国巴菲特”：市场看好英伟达和微软，但历史证明市场总是错的

2023-12-13

语无伦次的报道

英伟达只能向中国售最低端芯片：缩水版美国恐都不让卖！

2021-09-26

马斯克又没有foundry..

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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诺奖都蹭AI，说明超导材料这些昨日黄花都是过去式了，现在最容易炒的概念就是AI。短期看好。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357851512312080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345833401720944,"gmtCreate":1725437113396,"gmtModify":1725437115940,"author":{"id":"4090070865795590","authorId":"4090070865795590","name":"Crazy_George","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff951d5327b303fb97755e8b393f60b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090070865795590","authorIdStr":"4090070865795590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AMD他很少提，LSI他演讲时经常说的，是他从完全的技术工程师到懂商业懂管理的经历","listText":"AMD他很少提，LSI他演讲时经常说的，是他从完全的技术工程师到懂商业懂管理的经历","text":"AMD他很少提，LSI他演讲时经常说的，是他从完全的技术工程师到懂商业懂管理的经历","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345833401720944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343082981781576,"gmtCreate":1724800656201,"gmtModify":1724800658919,"author":{"id":"4090070865795590","authorId":"4090070865795590","name":"Crazy_George","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff951d5327b303fb97755e8b393f60b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090070865795590","authorIdStr":"4090070865795590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440540550401156\">@KEINS</a>:上个季度就是这个剧本，这次不知道//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440540550401156\">@KEINS</a>:希望你对吧，哎，挺搞心态的","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440540550401156\">@KEINS</a>:上个季度就是这个剧本，这次不知道//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440540550401156\">@KEINS</a>:希望你对吧，哎，挺搞心态的","text":"Replying to @KEINS:上个季度就是这个剧本，这次不知道//@KEINS:希望你对吧，哎，挺搞心态的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343082981781576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1078,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314299471683752,"gmtCreate":1717764099625,"gmtModify":1717764101253,"author":{"id":"4090070865795590","authorId":"4090070865795590","name":"Crazy_George","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff951d5327b303fb97755e8b393f60b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090070865795590","authorIdStr":"4090070865795590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤡","listText":"🤡","text":"🤡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314299471683752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278533179064448,"gmtCreate":1709011058424,"gmtModify":1709012924873,"author":{"id":"4090070865795590","authorId":"4090070865795590","name":"Crazy_George","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff951d5327b303fb97755e8b393f60b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090070865795590","authorIdStr":"4090070865795590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;赢麻了","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;赢麻了","text":"[开心] 赢麻了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/278533179064448","repostId":"1103589170","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":276835823022368,"gmtCreate":1708616023396,"gmtModify":1708616024353,"author":{"id":"4090070865795590","authorId":"4090070865795590","name":"Crazy_George","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff951d5327b303fb97755e8b393f60b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090070865795590","authorIdStr":"4090070865795590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$&nbsp;</a> 不愧是你，小英子[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$&nbsp;</a> 不愧是你，小英子[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$英特尔(INTC)$ 不愧是你，小英子[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/276835823022368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":270755955757184,"gmtCreate":1707140343854,"gmtModify":1707142692802,"author":{"id":"4090070865795590","authorId":"4090070865795590","name":"Crazy_George","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff951d5327b303fb97755e8b393f60b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090070865795590","authorIdStr":"4090070865795590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你说400都行，说200不是小丑吗🤡","listText":"你说400都行，说200不是小丑吗🤡","text":"你说400都行，说200不是小丑吗🤡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/270755955757184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":261837581279280,"gmtCreate":1704951970739,"gmtModify":1704953200910,"author":{"id":"4090070865795590","authorId":"4090070865795590","name":"Crazy_George","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff951d5327b303fb97755e8b393f60b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090070865795590","authorIdStr":"4090070865795590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如何评价1985的微软Windows在操作系统历史中的地位","listText":"如何评价1985的微软Windows在操作系统历史中的地位","text":"如何评价1985的微软Windows在操作系统历史中的地位","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/261837581279280","repostId":"2402103385","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2402103385","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1704894077,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2402103385?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-10 21:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“英国巴菲特”：市场看好英伟达和微软，但历史证明市场总是错的","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2402103385","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"当人人都拥可以拥有AI，没有人会有任何优势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Terry Smith直言过去半个世纪，技术领域的先行者，很少可以成为长期领导者，当人人都拥可以拥有AI，没有人会有任何优势。</p></blockquote><p>在价值投资界，Terry Smith这位英国基金经理久负盛名，被誉为“英国巴菲特”。</p><p>1月9日，时年70岁的Terry Smith发布了一年一度的股东信。</p><p>Terry Smith于2010年创立了英国最大的主动性权益共同基金——Fundsmith，创立以来Fundsmith的年化收益达到15.3%，规模达到了240亿英镑。2023年Fundsmith的收益率为12.4%，未跑赢MSCI全球指数近17%的收益率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c2d2bde6accaf0c8e1eef6a765b964d\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"320\"/></p><p>股东信上指出，从长期表现来看，Fundsmith在投资协会（Investment Association）165只全球领域基金中表现依旧亮眼，<strong>2010年以来，165只基金平均累积回报率是215%，而Fundsmith的回报率达到了550%。</strong></p><p>Terry Smith认为，2023年跑赢大盘比此前更具挑战性，纳指一年间的涨幅达到了43%，而“七巨头”贡献了多数涨幅，仅<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>一家公司就贡献了11%的涨幅，<strong>他们并未布局每家“七巨头”，未来也不会冒风险同时买入这七家公司的股票</strong>。</p><p>对于英伟达的和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的涨幅，Terry Smith警告投资者谨慎，回想一下过去半个世纪，<strong>技术领域的先行者，很少可以成为长期领导者</strong>，从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>再到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a>手机都逐步走向没落。</p><p>Terry Smith一如既往地强调了三步投资策略：<strong>买好公司，价格别太高，买入后尽可能什么都不做</strong>（buy shares in good companies, try not to overpay and then do nothing）。</p><p><strong>技术领域的最终赢家通常不是先行者</strong></p><p>Terry Smith指出，AI并不是一个新鲜出现的概念，今年市场对人工智能的兴趣激增，主要因为初创公司OpenAI背后的大语言模型ChatGPT爆火，而微软作为这家公司的大股东股价水涨船高。</p><p>Terry Smith认为，股票市场从一开始就认定它们能找出AI领域的最后赢家——即芯片公司的英伟达和微软，但回想一下过去半个多世纪的技术发展过程的先行者，大多数都会走向没落：</p><blockquote><p>芯片公司：英特尔；互联网服务提供商：美国在线 ；移动电话：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HAF.UK\">诺基亚</a> ；搜索引擎：雅虎 ；智能手机：黑莓；社交媒体：Myspace</p><p>它们现在在哪里？这些历史是否表明，市场无法从一开始就成功预测人工智能领域的赢家？</p></blockquote><p>此外，Terry Smith认为，无论是在大语言模型提供商，还是在使用大型语言模型方面，也许不会有赢家，广泛采用人工智能可能导致人人都拥有人工智能的局面，没有人会有任何优势。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EL\">雅诗兰黛</a>——最大拖累；Meta——最大贡献</strong></p><p>股东信中分析指出，从个股来看雅诗兰黛成了业绩最大的拖累，对回报率产生了-1.8%的影响，其次是，全球最大调味料供应商之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">味好美</a>（McCormick）对回报率产生了-1.1%的拖累。</p><p>Terry Smith表示，他们已经抛售了雅诗兰黛，由于该集团在疫情之后经济复苏方面的判断出现失误，导致其供应链存在“严重不足”。味好美的服务业务的利润率尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，但对其长期前景并不担忧。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c9a3b26d76c7a9b73e4ba40cbe5845\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"296\"/></p><p>2023年，对基金业绩贡献最大的五个公司为：Meta、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVO\">诺和诺德</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NZM.UK\">欧莱雅</a>以及爱德士（IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.宠物 医疗行业中市值最大的企业）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e636187e949a8a3263f17a0d08bab041\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"298\"/></p><p>Terry Smith称，Meta的亮眼表现让他怀疑是否应该成立一个基金，仅投资于每年投资组合中受到最多质疑的一只股票。Meta在最佳贡献者名单中第三次出现，而微软则是第八次出现。</p><p>Terry Smith指出当他们在2011年以约25美元的价格开始购买Meta的股票时，批评声震耳欲聋（2023年年底价格为354美元）。</p><p>诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）由于其减肥药物Wegovy在今年表现亮眼。Terry Smith指出，他们已经持有这只股票七年了，诺和诺德在药物研究方面有些不寻常的方法和其所有权结构吸引了他们。诺和诺德主要股份由诺和诺德基金会持有，这种股权结构确保了该公司在经营策略和决策上采取了一种长期的视角和方法：</p><blockquote><p>诺和诺德在最佳贡献者名单中第四次出现 —— 在与诺和诺德相关的“减肥”一词被反复提及之前，这就是一个成功的投资。</p></blockquote><p>Terry Smith称，欧莱雅是一个长期受到青睐的品牌，其对于中国市场的重视与雅诗兰黛形成了鲜明对比。</p><p>此外，爱德士（IDEXX）也在最佳五大贡献者名单中第五次出现。</p><p><strong>Terry Smith的三步投资策略</strong></p><p>首先第一步“选择好公司”，从定量的角度来看，Terry为持仓股票做了透视盈余表，给了投资者更为清晰的选择标准，一共五个指标：<strong>已动用资本回报率（ROCE）、毛利率、经营利润率、现金转换率</strong>和<strong>利息覆盖率</strong></p><p>其中最重要的是已动用资本回报率——<strong>ROCE=扣非净利润/（股东权益+长期负债）。</strong></p><p>如股东信中所说，持续的高资本回报率是寻找“好公司”时的一个标志。加权平均自由现金流（公司在支付除股息外的所有费用后产生的现金）则是判断一个公司未来成长前景的指标。</p><p>Terry Smith称，他们持有的公司在过去8年里平均ROCE都在25%以上，在2022和2023年都达到了32%，毛利润都在62%以上，经营净利润率都在26%以上，经营利润基本都是自由现金流，<strong>现金转换率达到90%，</strong>加权平均自由现金流在2023年增长了14%。</p><p>利息覆盖率则是衡量公司产生的税前利润能否支付当期利息的指标，它可以说明公司是否还有能力支付利息以避免偿债风险，以及是否还有融资能力来扭转困境。<strong>Terry持仓中的股票利息覆盖倍数达17倍以上。</strong></p><p>Terry Smith指出，唯一继续落后于历史表现的指标是<strong>现金转换率</strong>，低于约100%的历史水平，因一些公司受到了异常事件的影响 ，预计这些事件将在2024年基本平息，从而使这些公司受益。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f91f560011b7e3179ea11d26115722f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"464\"/></p><p>策略的第二步则涉及估值。Terry Smith指出，2023年初，投资组合的加权平均自由现金流（“FCF”）收益率（自由现金流和市值比）为3.2%，年末时降至3.0%。标准普尔500指数全年中位数FCF收益率为3.7%：</p><blockquote><p>我们的投资组合远优于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数成分公司的平均水平，因此它们的平均估值高于标普500指数公司并不惊讶。这本身并不一定意味着这些股票价格过高，就像低估值并不一定意味着股票便宜一样。</p><p>如果像我们预期的那样，投资组合公司的现金转换率在2024年有所改善，我们认为这种估值上的差异会被消除。</p></blockquote><p>Terry Smith指出，减少投资组合的换手率仍然是他们的目标之一，这也是“买入后尽可能什么都不做（do nothing）”的策略体现，2023年投资组合的换手率为11.1%，略高于平均水平：</p><blockquote><p>我们在一年中仅在自愿交易（不包括与认购和赎回相关的交易成本，因为这些是非自愿的）上花费了基金平均价值的总计0.008%（不到一个基点）。卖出了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和雅诗兰黛的股份，并购买了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">宝洁</a>、万豪和Fortinet的股份。</p><p></p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“英国巴菲特”：市场看好英伟达和微软，但历史证明市场总是错的</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“英国巴菲特”：市场看好英伟达和微软，但历史证明市场总是错的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-10 21:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3706090><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Terry Smith直言过去半个世纪，技术领域的先行者，很少可以成为长期领导者，当人人都拥可以拥有AI，没有人会有任何优势。在价值投资界，Terry Smith这位英国基金经理久负盛名，被誉为“英国巴菲特”。1月9日，时年70岁的Terry Smith发布了一年一度的股东信。Terry Smith于2010年创立了英国最大的主动性权益共同基金——Fundsmith，创立以来Fundsmith的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3706090\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/160df6039f6023317401db179088a205","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3706090","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2402103385","content_text":"Terry Smith直言过去半个世纪，技术领域的先行者，很少可以成为长期领导者，当人人都拥可以拥有AI，没有人会有任何优势。在价值投资界，Terry Smith这位英国基金经理久负盛名，被誉为“英国巴菲特”。1月9日，时年70岁的Terry Smith发布了一年一度的股东信。Terry Smith于2010年创立了英国最大的主动性权益共同基金——Fundsmith，创立以来Fundsmith的年化收益达到15.3%，规模达到了240亿英镑。2023年Fundsmith的收益率为12.4%，未跑赢MSCI全球指数近17%的收益率。股东信上指出，从长期表现来看，Fundsmith在投资协会（Investment Association）165只全球领域基金中表现依旧亮眼，2010年以来，165只基金平均累积回报率是215%，而Fundsmith的回报率达到了550%。Terry Smith认为，2023年跑赢大盘比此前更具挑战性，纳指一年间的涨幅达到了43%，而“七巨头”贡献了多数涨幅，仅英伟达一家公司就贡献了11%的涨幅，他们并未布局每家“七巨头”，未来也不会冒风险同时买入这七家公司的股票。对于英伟达的和微软的涨幅，Terry Smith警告投资者谨慎，回想一下过去半个世纪，技术领域的先行者，很少可以成为长期领导者，从诺基亚到英特尔再到黑莓手机都逐步走向没落。Terry Smith一如既往地强调了三步投资策略：买好公司，价格别太高，买入后尽可能什么都不做（buy shares in good companies, try not to overpay and then do nothing）。技术领域的最终赢家通常不是先行者Terry Smith指出，AI并不是一个新鲜出现的概念，今年市场对人工智能的兴趣激增，主要因为初创公司OpenAI背后的大语言模型ChatGPT爆火，而微软作为这家公司的大股东股价水涨船高。Terry Smith认为，股票市场从一开始就认定它们能找出AI领域的最后赢家——即芯片公司的英伟达和微软，但回想一下过去半个多世纪的技术发展过程的先行者，大多数都会走向没落：芯片公司：英特尔；互联网服务提供商：美国在线 ；移动电话：诺基亚 ；搜索引擎：雅虎 ；智能手机：黑莓；社交媒体：Myspace它们现在在哪里？这些历史是否表明，市场无法从一开始就成功预测人工智能领域的赢家？此外，Terry Smith认为，无论是在大语言模型提供商，还是在使用大型语言模型方面，也许不会有赢家，广泛采用人工智能可能导致人人都拥有人工智能的局面，没有人会有任何优势。雅诗兰黛——最大拖累；Meta——最大贡献股东信中分析指出，从个股来看雅诗兰黛成了业绩最大的拖累，对回报率产生了-1.8%的影响，其次是，全球最大调味料供应商之一味好美（McCormick）对回报率产生了-1.1%的拖累。Terry Smith表示，他们已经抛售了雅诗兰黛，由于该集团在疫情之后经济复苏方面的判断出现失误，导致其供应链存在“严重不足”。味好美的服务业务的利润率尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，但对其长期前景并不担忧。2023年，对基金业绩贡献最大的五个公司为：Meta、微软、诺和诺德、欧莱雅以及爱德士（IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.宠物 医疗行业中市值最大的企业）。Terry Smith称，Meta的亮眼表现让他怀疑是否应该成立一个基金，仅投资于每年投资组合中受到最多质疑的一只股票。Meta在最佳贡献者名单中第三次出现，而微软则是第八次出现。Terry Smith指出当他们在2011年以约25美元的价格开始购买Meta的股票时，批评声震耳欲聋（2023年年底价格为354美元）。诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）由于其减肥药物Wegovy在今年表现亮眼。Terry Smith指出，他们已经持有这只股票七年了，诺和诺德在药物研究方面有些不寻常的方法和其所有权结构吸引了他们。诺和诺德主要股份由诺和诺德基金会持有，这种股权结构确保了该公司在经营策略和决策上采取了一种长期的视角和方法：诺和诺德在最佳贡献者名单中第四次出现 —— 在与诺和诺德相关的“减肥”一词被反复提及之前，这就是一个成功的投资。Terry Smith称，欧莱雅是一个长期受到青睐的品牌，其对于中国市场的重视与雅诗兰黛形成了鲜明对比。此外，爱德士（IDEXX）也在最佳五大贡献者名单中第五次出现。Terry Smith的三步投资策略首先第一步“选择好公司”，从定量的角度来看，Terry为持仓股票做了透视盈余表，给了投资者更为清晰的选择标准，一共五个指标：已动用资本回报率（ROCE）、毛利率、经营利润率、现金转换率和利息覆盖率其中最重要的是已动用资本回报率——ROCE=扣非净利润/（股东权益+长期负债）。如股东信中所说，持续的高资本回报率是寻找“好公司”时的一个标志。加权平均自由现金流（公司在支付除股息外的所有费用后产生的现金）则是判断一个公司未来成长前景的指标。Terry Smith称，他们持有的公司在过去8年里平均ROCE都在25%以上，在2022和2023年都达到了32%，毛利润都在62%以上，经营净利润率都在26%以上，经营利润基本都是自由现金流，现金转换率达到90%，加权平均自由现金流在2023年增长了14%。利息覆盖率则是衡量公司产生的税前利润能否支付当期利息的指标，它可以说明公司是否还有能力支付利息以避免偿债风险，以及是否还有融资能力来扭转困境。Terry持仓中的股票利息覆盖倍数达17倍以上。Terry Smith指出，唯一继续落后于历史表现的指标是现金转换率，低于约100%的历史水平，因一些公司受到了异常事件的影响 ，预计这些事件将在2024年基本平息，从而使这些公司受益。策略的第二步则涉及估值。Terry Smith指出，2023年初，投资组合的加权平均自由现金流（“FCF”）收益率（自由现金流和市值比）为3.2%，年末时降至3.0%。标准普尔500指数全年中位数FCF收益率为3.7%：我们的投资组合远优于标普500指数成分公司的平均水平，因此它们的平均估值高于标普500指数公司并不惊讶。这本身并不一定意味着这些股票价格过高，就像低估值并不一定意味着股票便宜一样。如果像我们预期的那样，投资组合公司的现金转换率在2024年有所改善，我们认为这种估值上的差异会被消除。Terry Smith指出，减少投资组合的换手率仍然是他们的目标之一，这也是“买入后尽可能什么都不做（do nothing）”的策略体现，2023年投资组合的换手率为11.1%，略高于平均水平：我们在一年中仅在自愿交易（不包括与认购和赎回相关的交易成本，因为这些是非自愿的）上花费了基金平均价值的总计0.008%（不到一个基点）。卖出了Adobe、亚马逊和雅诗兰黛的股份，并购买了宝洁、万豪和Fortinet的股份。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1,"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":251672422990048,"gmtCreate":1702480652694,"gmtModify":1702480872455,"author":{"id":"4090070865795590","authorId":"4090070865795590","name":"Crazy_George","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff951d5327b303fb97755e8b393f60b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090070865795590","authorIdStr":"4090070865795590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"语无伦次的报道","listText":"语无伦次的报道","text":"语无伦次的报道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251672422990048","repostId":"2391799583","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2391799583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1702426757,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2391799583?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-13 08:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达只能向中国售最低端芯片：缩水版美国恐都不让卖！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2391799583","media":"快科技","summary":"快科技12月13日消息，据国外媒体报道称，美国虽然已经允许英伟达想中国厂商出手AI芯片，但黄仁勋内心是无语的。按照美国的说法，英伟达能够、将会且应该向中国出售AI芯片，因为大多数AI芯片将用于商业用途，但禁止出售最精密、处理能力最高的AI芯片。在中国70 亿美元的AI芯片市场上，英伟达占据90%以上的市占率。分析师表示，美国对芯片出口的新限制可能会为中国竞争对手创造进入市场的机会。","content":"<html><body><p>快科技12月13日消息，据国外媒体报道称，美国虽然已经允许<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>想中国厂商出手AI芯片，但黄仁勋内心是无语的。</p><p><strong>按照美国的说法，英伟达能够、将会且应该向中国出售AI芯片，因为大多数AI芯片将用于商业用途，但禁止出售最精密、处理能力最高的AI芯片。</strong></p><p>在中国70 亿美元的AI芯片市场上，英伟达占据90%以上的市占率。</p><p>分析师表示，美国对芯片出口的新限制可能会为中国竞争对手创造进入市场的机会。</p><p>之前黄仁勋坦言他们在中国内外都有很多竞争对手，比如华为、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>和不断壮大的半导体初创公司对英伟达在人工智能芯片市场的主导地位构成了严峻挑战。</p><p>在这之前，按照美国官方的说法，英伟达将被持续针对，即便是他们对先进芯片调整，试图达到出口的标准，依然会被整治。</p><p>美国方面点名英伟达，声称如果该公司采取某种措施重新设计一款芯片，让中国能够实施人工智能项目，“我第二天就会采取控制措施。”</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>责任编辑：雪花</p></body></html>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达只能向中国售最低端芯片：缩水版美国恐都不让卖！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达只能向中国售最低端芯片：缩水版美国恐都不让卖！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-13 08:19 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8VTWfpih1DH><strong>快科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>快科技12月13日消息，据国外媒体报道称，美国虽然已经允许英伟达想中国厂商出手AI芯片，但黄仁勋内心是无语的。按照美国的说法，英伟达能够、将会且应该向中国出售AI芯片，因为大多数AI芯片将用于商业用途，但禁止出售最精密、处理能力最高的AI芯片。在中国70 亿美元的AI芯片市场上，英伟达占据90%以上的市占率。分析师表示，美国对芯片出口的新限制可能会为中国竞争对手创造进入市场的机会。之前黄仁勋坦言...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8VTWfpih1DH\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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21:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“英国巴菲特”：市场看好英伟达和微软，但历史证明市场总是错的","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2402103385","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"当人人都拥可以拥有AI，没有人会有任何优势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Terry Smith直言过去半个世纪，技术领域的先行者，很少可以成为长期领导者，当人人都拥可以拥有AI，没有人会有任何优势。</p></blockquote><p>在价值投资界，Terry Smith这位英国基金经理久负盛名，被誉为“英国巴菲特”。</p><p>1月9日，时年70岁的Terry Smith发布了一年一度的股东信。</p><p>Terry Smith于2010年创立了英国最大的主动性权益共同基金——Fundsmith，创立以来Fundsmith的年化收益达到15.3%，规模达到了240亿英镑。2023年Fundsmith的收益率为12.4%，未跑赢MSCI全球指数近17%的收益率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c2d2bde6accaf0c8e1eef6a765b964d\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"320\"/></p><p>股东信上指出，从长期表现来看，Fundsmith在投资协会（Investment Association）165只全球领域基金中表现依旧亮眼，<strong>2010年以来，165只基金平均累积回报率是215%，而Fundsmith的回报率达到了550%。</strong></p><p>Terry Smith认为，2023年跑赢大盘比此前更具挑战性，纳指一年间的涨幅达到了43%，而“七巨头”贡献了多数涨幅，仅<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>一家公司就贡献了11%的涨幅，<strong>他们并未布局每家“七巨头”，未来也不会冒风险同时买入这七家公司的股票</strong>。</p><p>对于英伟达的和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的涨幅，Terry Smith警告投资者谨慎，回想一下过去半个世纪，<strong>技术领域的先行者，很少可以成为长期领导者</strong>，从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>再到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a>手机都逐步走向没落。</p><p>Terry Smith一如既往地强调了三步投资策略：<strong>买好公司，价格别太高，买入后尽可能什么都不做</strong>（buy shares in good companies, try not to overpay and then do nothing）。</p><p><strong>技术领域的最终赢家通常不是先行者</strong></p><p>Terry Smith指出，AI并不是一个新鲜出现的概念，今年市场对人工智能的兴趣激增，主要因为初创公司OpenAI背后的大语言模型ChatGPT爆火，而微软作为这家公司的大股东股价水涨船高。</p><p>Terry Smith认为，股票市场从一开始就认定它们能找出AI领域的最后赢家——即芯片公司的英伟达和微软，但回想一下过去半个多世纪的技术发展过程的先行者，大多数都会走向没落：</p><blockquote><p>芯片公司：英特尔；互联网服务提供商：美国在线 ；移动电话：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HAF.UK\">诺基亚</a> ；搜索引擎：雅虎 ；智能手机：黑莓；社交媒体：Myspace</p><p>它们现在在哪里？这些历史是否表明，市场无法从一开始就成功预测人工智能领域的赢家？</p></blockquote><p>此外，Terry Smith认为，无论是在大语言模型提供商，还是在使用大型语言模型方面，也许不会有赢家，广泛采用人工智能可能导致人人都拥有人工智能的局面，没有人会有任何优势。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EL\">雅诗兰黛</a>——最大拖累；Meta——最大贡献</strong></p><p>股东信中分析指出，从个股来看雅诗兰黛成了业绩最大的拖累，对回报率产生了-1.8%的影响，其次是，全球最大调味料供应商之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">味好美</a>（McCormick）对回报率产生了-1.1%的拖累。</p><p>Terry Smith表示，他们已经抛售了雅诗兰黛，由于该集团在疫情之后经济复苏方面的判断出现失误，导致其供应链存在“严重不足”。味好美的服务业务的利润率尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，但对其长期前景并不担忧。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c9a3b26d76c7a9b73e4ba40cbe5845\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"296\"/></p><p>2023年，对基金业绩贡献最大的五个公司为：Meta、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVO\">诺和诺德</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NZM.UK\">欧莱雅</a>以及爱德士（IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.宠物 医疗行业中市值最大的企业）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e636187e949a8a3263f17a0d08bab041\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"298\"/></p><p>Terry Smith称，Meta的亮眼表现让他怀疑是否应该成立一个基金，仅投资于每年投资组合中受到最多质疑的一只股票。Meta在最佳贡献者名单中第三次出现，而微软则是第八次出现。</p><p>Terry Smith指出当他们在2011年以约25美元的价格开始购买Meta的股票时，批评声震耳欲聋（2023年年底价格为354美元）。</p><p>诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）由于其减肥药物Wegovy在今年表现亮眼。Terry Smith指出，他们已经持有这只股票七年了，诺和诺德在药物研究方面有些不寻常的方法和其所有权结构吸引了他们。诺和诺德主要股份由诺和诺德基金会持有，这种股权结构确保了该公司在经营策略和决策上采取了一种长期的视角和方法：</p><blockquote><p>诺和诺德在最佳贡献者名单中第四次出现 —— 在与诺和诺德相关的“减肥”一词被反复提及之前，这就是一个成功的投资。</p></blockquote><p>Terry Smith称，欧莱雅是一个长期受到青睐的品牌，其对于中国市场的重视与雅诗兰黛形成了鲜明对比。</p><p>此外，爱德士（IDEXX）也在最佳五大贡献者名单中第五次出现。</p><p><strong>Terry Smith的三步投资策略</strong></p><p>首先第一步“选择好公司”，从定量的角度来看，Terry为持仓股票做了透视盈余表，给了投资者更为清晰的选择标准，一共五个指标：<strong>已动用资本回报率（ROCE）、毛利率、经营利润率、现金转换率</strong>和<strong>利息覆盖率</strong></p><p>其中最重要的是已动用资本回报率——<strong>ROCE=扣非净利润/（股东权益+长期负债）。</strong></p><p>如股东信中所说，持续的高资本回报率是寻找“好公司”时的一个标志。加权平均自由现金流（公司在支付除股息外的所有费用后产生的现金）则是判断一个公司未来成长前景的指标。</p><p>Terry Smith称，他们持有的公司在过去8年里平均ROCE都在25%以上，在2022和2023年都达到了32%，毛利润都在62%以上，经营净利润率都在26%以上，经营利润基本都是自由现金流，<strong>现金转换率达到90%，</strong>加权平均自由现金流在2023年增长了14%。</p><p>利息覆盖率则是衡量公司产生的税前利润能否支付当期利息的指标，它可以说明公司是否还有能力支付利息以避免偿债风险，以及是否还有融资能力来扭转困境。<strong>Terry持仓中的股票利息覆盖倍数达17倍以上。</strong></p><p>Terry Smith指出，唯一继续落后于历史表现的指标是<strong>现金转换率</strong>，低于约100%的历史水平，因一些公司受到了异常事件的影响 ，预计这些事件将在2024年基本平息，从而使这些公司受益。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f91f560011b7e3179ea11d26115722f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"464\"/></p><p>策略的第二步则涉及估值。Terry Smith指出，2023年初，投资组合的加权平均自由现金流（“FCF”）收益率（自由现金流和市值比）为3.2%，年末时降至3.0%。标准普尔500指数全年中位数FCF收益率为3.7%：</p><blockquote><p>我们的投资组合远优于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数成分公司的平均水平，因此它们的平均估值高于标普500指数公司并不惊讶。这本身并不一定意味着这些股票价格过高，就像低估值并不一定意味着股票便宜一样。</p><p>如果像我们预期的那样，投资组合公司的现金转换率在2024年有所改善，我们认为这种估值上的差异会被消除。</p></blockquote><p>Terry Smith指出，减少投资组合的换手率仍然是他们的目标之一，这也是“买入后尽可能什么都不做（do nothing）”的策略体现，2023年投资组合的换手率为11.1%，略高于平均水平：</p><blockquote><p>我们在一年中仅在自愿交易（不包括与认购和赎回相关的交易成本，因为这些是非自愿的）上花费了基金平均价值的总计0.008%（不到一个基点）。卖出了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和雅诗兰黛的股份，并购买了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">宝洁</a>、万豪和Fortinet的股份。</p><p></p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“英国巴菲特”：市场看好英伟达和微软，但历史证明市场总是错的</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“英国巴菲特”：市场看好英伟达和微软，但历史证明市场总是错的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-10 21:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3706090><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Terry Smith直言过去半个世纪，技术领域的先行者，很少可以成为长期领导者，当人人都拥可以拥有AI，没有人会有任何优势。在价值投资界，Terry Smith这位英国基金经理久负盛名，被誉为“英国巴菲特”。1月9日，时年70岁的Terry Smith发布了一年一度的股东信。Terry Smith于2010年创立了英国最大的主动性权益共同基金——Fundsmith，创立以来Fundsmith的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3706090\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/160df6039f6023317401db179088a205","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3706090","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2402103385","content_text":"Terry Smith直言过去半个世纪，技术领域的先行者，很少可以成为长期领导者，当人人都拥可以拥有AI，没有人会有任何优势。在价值投资界，Terry Smith这位英国基金经理久负盛名，被誉为“英国巴菲特”。1月9日，时年70岁的Terry Smith发布了一年一度的股东信。Terry Smith于2010年创立了英国最大的主动性权益共同基金——Fundsmith，创立以来Fundsmith的年化收益达到15.3%，规模达到了240亿英镑。2023年Fundsmith的收益率为12.4%，未跑赢MSCI全球指数近17%的收益率。股东信上指出，从长期表现来看，Fundsmith在投资协会（Investment Association）165只全球领域基金中表现依旧亮眼，2010年以来，165只基金平均累积回报率是215%，而Fundsmith的回报率达到了550%。Terry Smith认为，2023年跑赢大盘比此前更具挑战性，纳指一年间的涨幅达到了43%，而“七巨头”贡献了多数涨幅，仅英伟达一家公司就贡献了11%的涨幅，他们并未布局每家“七巨头”，未来也不会冒风险同时买入这七家公司的股票。对于英伟达的和微软的涨幅，Terry Smith警告投资者谨慎，回想一下过去半个世纪，技术领域的先行者，很少可以成为长期领导者，从诺基亚到英特尔再到黑莓手机都逐步走向没落。Terry Smith一如既往地强调了三步投资策略：买好公司，价格别太高，买入后尽可能什么都不做（buy shares in good companies, try not to overpay and then do nothing）。技术领域的最终赢家通常不是先行者Terry Smith指出，AI并不是一个新鲜出现的概念，今年市场对人工智能的兴趣激增，主要因为初创公司OpenAI背后的大语言模型ChatGPT爆火，而微软作为这家公司的大股东股价水涨船高。Terry Smith认为，股票市场从一开始就认定它们能找出AI领域的最后赢家——即芯片公司的英伟达和微软，但回想一下过去半个多世纪的技术发展过程的先行者，大多数都会走向没落：芯片公司：英特尔；互联网服务提供商：美国在线 ；移动电话：诺基亚 ；搜索引擎：雅虎 ；智能手机：黑莓；社交媒体：Myspace它们现在在哪里？这些历史是否表明，市场无法从一开始就成功预测人工智能领域的赢家？此外，Terry Smith认为，无论是在大语言模型提供商，还是在使用大型语言模型方面，也许不会有赢家，广泛采用人工智能可能导致人人都拥有人工智能的局面，没有人会有任何优势。雅诗兰黛——最大拖累；Meta——最大贡献股东信中分析指出，从个股来看雅诗兰黛成了业绩最大的拖累，对回报率产生了-1.8%的影响，其次是，全球最大调味料供应商之一味好美（McCormick）对回报率产生了-1.1%的拖累。Terry Smith表示，他们已经抛售了雅诗兰黛，由于该集团在疫情之后经济复苏方面的判断出现失误，导致其供应链存在“严重不足”。味好美的服务业务的利润率尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，但对其长期前景并不担忧。2023年，对基金业绩贡献最大的五个公司为：Meta、微软、诺和诺德、欧莱雅以及爱德士（IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.宠物 医疗行业中市值最大的企业）。Terry Smith称，Meta的亮眼表现让他怀疑是否应该成立一个基金，仅投资于每年投资组合中受到最多质疑的一只股票。Meta在最佳贡献者名单中第三次出现，而微软则是第八次出现。Terry Smith指出当他们在2011年以约25美元的价格开始购买Meta的股票时，批评声震耳欲聋（2023年年底价格为354美元）。诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）由于其减肥药物Wegovy在今年表现亮眼。Terry Smith指出，他们已经持有这只股票七年了，诺和诺德在药物研究方面有些不寻常的方法和其所有权结构吸引了他们。诺和诺德主要股份由诺和诺德基金会持有，这种股权结构确保了该公司在经营策略和决策上采取了一种长期的视角和方法：诺和诺德在最佳贡献者名单中第四次出现 —— 在与诺和诺德相关的“减肥”一词被反复提及之前，这就是一个成功的投资。Terry Smith称，欧莱雅是一个长期受到青睐的品牌，其对于中国市场的重视与雅诗兰黛形成了鲜明对比。此外，爱德士（IDEXX）也在最佳五大贡献者名单中第五次出现。Terry Smith的三步投资策略首先第一步“选择好公司”，从定量的角度来看，Terry为持仓股票做了透视盈余表，给了投资者更为清晰的选择标准，一共五个指标：已动用资本回报率（ROCE）、毛利率、经营利润率、现金转换率和利息覆盖率其中最重要的是已动用资本回报率——ROCE=扣非净利润/（股东权益+长期负债）。如股东信中所说，持续的高资本回报率是寻找“好公司”时的一个标志。加权平均自由现金流（公司在支付除股息外的所有费用后产生的现金）则是判断一个公司未来成长前景的指标。Terry Smith称，他们持有的公司在过去8年里平均ROCE都在25%以上，在2022和2023年都达到了32%，毛利润都在62%以上，经营净利润率都在26%以上，经营利润基本都是自由现金流，现金转换率达到90%，加权平均自由现金流在2023年增长了14%。利息覆盖率则是衡量公司产生的税前利润能否支付当期利息的指标，它可以说明公司是否还有能力支付利息以避免偿债风险，以及是否还有融资能力来扭转困境。Terry持仓中的股票利息覆盖倍数达17倍以上。Terry Smith指出，唯一继续落后于历史表现的指标是现金转换率，低于约100%的历史水平，因一些公司受到了异常事件的影响 ，预计这些事件将在2024年基本平息，从而使这些公司受益。策略的第二步则涉及估值。Terry Smith指出，2023年初，投资组合的加权平均自由现金流（“FCF”）收益率（自由现金流和市值比）为3.2%，年末时降至3.0%。标准普尔500指数全年中位数FCF收益率为3.7%：我们的投资组合远优于标普500指数成分公司的平均水平，因此它们的平均估值高于标普500指数公司并不惊讶。这本身并不一定意味着这些股票价格过高，就像低估值并不一定意味着股票便宜一样。如果像我们预期的那样，投资组合公司的现金转换率在2024年有所改善，我们认为这种估值上的差异会被消除。Terry Smith指出，减少投资组合的换手率仍然是他们的目标之一，这也是“买入后尽可能什么都不做（do 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