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香蕉大皮也大

02-18 11:09

段20年前的相貌挺好的

段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus

香蕉大皮也大

02-18 09:41

买，然后放消息，然后吹牛逼

巴菲特“收山之作”：Q4再抛苹果美银，猛砍亚马逊，首次新进纽约时报

香蕉大皮也大

02-18 09:30

狗

股价回调不合理！知名科技分析师Dan Ives力挺苹果，维持“跑赢大盘”评级

香蕉大皮也大

02-12

$智谱(02513)$ 垃圾蒸馏坐等崩盘

香蕉大皮也大

02-06

估计170-180

香蕉大皮也大

01-29

老黄你是个实在人吗

黄仁勋：英伟达今年将实现大幅增长，台积电未来十年需要大幅增加产能

香蕉大皮也大

01-27

14什么意思

香蕉大皮也大

01-19

8000中多少呢

香蕉大皮也大

01-15

$燃石医学(BNR)$ 这什么👻

香蕉大皮也大

01-15

一个个的认值价值

香蕉大皮也大

01-15

mark 什么公司

放弃英伟达“乐高模式”：OpenAI豪赌晶圆级架构，百亿美元押注Cerebras单芯片算力革命！

香蕉大皮也大

01-15

？？？

香蕉大皮也大

01-12

mark

香蕉大皮也大

01-12

$平安生物医药(PASW)$ 这是什么东西

香蕉大皮也大

01-12

？？？

知乎-W(02390)1月9日斥资11.66万美元回购9.9万股

香蕉大皮也大

01-11

美国就是虚张声势有种干点大的

2026年第一周给全球投资者的经验：动荡不止、军工不败

香蕉大皮也大

01-11

牛逼

马斯克宣布“X将在7天内公开所有算法”，包括推荐算法，以后每四周1次

香蕉大皮也大

01-11

这些所谓的专家放出这些言论什么意思

涨价，涨价！新能源替代潮来袭，下一个“苹果级”回报就在眼前？

香蕉大皮也大

01-10

发家致富就靠小米了

香蕉大皮也大

01-09

$兆易创新(03986)$ 牛逼

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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的","text":"段20年前的相貌挺好的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533967812007432","repostId":"2612049231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612049231","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771379884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612049231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 09:58","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612049231","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392545a009bcf09f2c078f8e9d1b3126\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcdb4f5cee5eaa6c20ba310989a7845\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_790947635\">“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%</strong>，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”</strong><br/>新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”</strong><br/>新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”</strong><br/>新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1651169234\">减持苹果，增持伯克希尔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。<strong>然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。</strong>这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，作为防御性资产的<strong>伯克希尔B </strong>获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，段永平还增持了<strong>谷歌、拼多多</strong>，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头<strong>阿斯麦</strong>（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f8fa40fbf2bafa712e6587729f3ea91","relate_stocks":{"LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","LU1923622291.USD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A USD","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) 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：数据中心的“高速公路”新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。减持苹果，增持伯克希尔在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。与此同时，作为防御性资产的伯克希尔B 获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。此外，段永平还增持了谷歌、拼多多，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头阿斯麦（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"CRWD":1.87,"NVDG":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"AAPB":0.6,"CORD":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDA":1.95,"MACW.SI":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"AAPL":1.91,"AAPD":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"CRWG":0.6,"CRWU":0.6,"CWVX":0.6,"NVD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533946027958480,"gmtCreate":1771378887400,"gmtModify":1771379354300,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"买，然后放消息，然后吹牛逼","listText":"买，然后放消息，然后吹牛逼","text":"买，然后放消息，然后吹牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533946027958480","repostId":"2612496724","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612496724","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771367111,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612496724?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 06:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特“收山之作”：Q4再抛苹果美银，猛砍亚马逊，首次新进纽约时报","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612496724","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伯克希尔Q4连续第三季抛苹果，苹果持仓市值减少28亿美元，仍是头号重仓股，美银持仓一年半来减持50%，仍是第三代重仓股；亚马逊持股环比减少230万股、降幅77%；新进纽约时报超过506万股，市值3.52亿美元。该报盘后一度涨超10%。更新中","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>伯克希尔连续三季抛苹果，Q4苹果持仓市值减少28亿美元，仍是头号重仓股；美银持股一年半来减少50%，仍是第三大重仓股；亚马逊持股环比减少230万股、降幅77%；新进纽约时报超过506万股，市值3.52亿美元；增持雪佛龙12.3亿美元、安达保险持股数增逾9%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在“股神”巴菲特卸任CEO前最后一个季度继续调整科技巨头持仓，减持多只重仓股的同时，首次建仓传统媒体纽约时报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间2月17日周二美股盘后，递交美国证监会（SEC）的13F文件披露，伯克希尔2025年第四季度大幅削减所持亚马逊股份（AMZN）超过77%，并且连续第三个季度减持苹果（AAPL）。伯克希尔还继续抛售美国银行（BAC），对该行的持股比例降至略低于7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约时报（NYT）是伯克希尔四季度唯一新进的个股，当季建仓超过506万股，市值约3.52亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周二公布的是巴菲特执掌伯克希尔60年的最后一份13F持仓报告，巴菲特的继任者Greg Abel已于2026年1月1日正式接任CEO。伯克希尔将于2月28日公布全年业绩，届时将发布Abel作为CEO的首封致股东信。</p><h2 id=\"55c41946\">持续减持苹果与美银</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据13F文件，伯克希尔四季度抛售苹果超过1029万股，持股数环比三季度减少4.3%，季末苹果持仓市值环比减少约28亿美元，持仓在伯克希尔投资组合中的占比从三季度的22.69%降至22.60%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以环比减少的市值看，苹果是伯克希尔四季度减持最多的个股，但减持股份还不及前一季。三季度伯克希尔减持苹果约4179万股，持股数环比减少逾14.9%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管持续减持，到四季度末，苹果仍是伯克希尔的头号重仓股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国银行是又一持续被伯克希尔减持的重仓股。四季度伯克希尔卖出将近5080万股美银，持股数环比减少8.9%，持仓占比降至6.89%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到四季度末，美银仍是伯克希尔的第三大重仓股。但伯克希尔的美银持股已经从2024年中的10.3亿股降至5.17亿股，相当于过去一年半来，该行已被减持约50%。</p><h2 id=\"cd3cd5ca\">亚马逊持股猛降77%</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">按持仓占比变动计算，亚马逊是伯克希尔四季度减持幅度最大的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">13F文件显示，四季度亚马逊在伯克希尔投资组合中的占比从三季度的0.82%骤降至0.19%，环比降幅达0.63个百分点，持股数量减少至约230万股，环比下降逾77.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔于2019年首次买入亚马逊。巴菲特当时表示，虽然他历来对科技股持谨慎态度，但没有更早买入这家在线零售巨头的股票是“愚蠢的”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚马逊股价进入2026年以来已累跌约11%，遭遇20年来最大同期跌幅。本周二，亚马逊刚刚结束连跌九个交易日的2006年以来最长连跌日。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至上周五的九个交易日内，亚马逊市值合计蒸发超4500亿美元，体现了投资者对亚马逊庞大AI相关支出合理性的质疑。亚马逊本月5日公布四季度财报时透露，计划2026年资本支出2000亿美元，年度投入规模超过其他任一科技巨头。</p><h2 id=\"bba77103\">建仓纽约时报</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约时报是伯克希尔四季度唯一新建仓的个股。当季伯克希尔买入506.7万股，市值超过3.52亿美元，持有纽约时报约3.1%的股份，持仓在伯克希尔投资组合中位列第30位，占比0.13%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔曾长期持有媒体股资产，但在2020年以1.4亿美元将旗下报纸业务出售给Lee Enterprises。巴菲特曾担任华盛顿邮报最大外部股东和董事会成员。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约时报股价近期表现强劲，今年以来上涨6%，目前接近历史高点74.59美元，过去12个月累计涨幅达50%。</p><h2 id=\"d7874ebc\">增持雪佛龙和安达保险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔四季度较大幅增持了石油巨头雪佛龙（CVX）和瑞士安达保险（Chubb）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，伯克希尔增持安达保险（CB）将近292万股，持股数环比增长9.3%，持股在投资组合中占比从三季度的3.31%升至3.90%，环比提高0.59个百分点。以持仓占比升幅看，安达保险是四季度增持最多的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">四季度伯克希尔买入雪佛龙逾809万股，持股数环比增长6.6%，持股占比环比增加0.15个百分点至7.24%，市值则环比增加约12.3亿美元。以持仓市值的增幅看，雪佛龙则是四季度增持之最。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔四季度还增持了36.8万股达美乐披萨（DPZ），持股数环比增长12.3%，持仓增至约14亿美元，排在第20位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔对另一必需消费品类股卡夫亨氏的持仓四季度保持不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Abel近期表示，他支持卡夫亨氏暂停拆分调味品和食品杂货业务的决定。卡夫亨氏在1月的监管文件中披露，最大股东伯克希尔可能出售其持有的近全部3.256亿股。巴菲特去年曾对华尔街日报表示，伯克希尔不支持该拆分计划。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据SEC规定，管理至少1亿美元美国股票的机构投资者必须在每个季度结束后45天内提交13F文件。尽管这些文件提供的是过时的持仓信息，但伯克希尔的披露仍被市场参与者广泛解读，以寻求对该公司投资决策的洞察。</p><h2 id=\"id_507732878\">十大重仓股仍是“老面孔”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到四季度末，以持仓市值计，伯克希尔的十大重仓股都是前一季的“老面孔”，排名大多和三季度相同，只有穆迪和西方石油的排名对换。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">和三季度一样，四季度这些重仓股之中也只有四只被调整持仓，分别是苹果、美国运通被减持，雪佛龙、安达保险被增持。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三季度首次跻身前十的谷歌母公司Alphabet依然排在第十位。三季度被Alphabet挤出前十的肾脏透析服务商德维特（DVA）四季度仍位列第11。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">四季度伯克希尔的十大重仓股分别是：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>苹果（AAPL）</p></li><li><p>美国运通（AXP）</p></li><li><p>美银（BAC）</p></li><li><p>可口可乐（KO）</p></li><li><p>雪佛龙（CVX）</p></li><li><p>穆迪（MCO），排名从第七升至第六。</p></li><li><p>西方石油（OXY），排名从第六降至第七。</p></li><li><p>瑞士安达保险（Chubb）（CB）。</p></li><li><p>卡夫亨氏（KHC）。</p></li><li><p>Alphabet（GOOGL）</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afc19aa8909429c6e0e54a471a917e7c\" tg-width=\"1643\" tg-height=\"648\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特“收山之作”：Q4再抛苹果美银，猛砍亚马逊，首次新进纽约时报</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特“收山之作”：Q4再抛苹果美银，猛砍亚马逊，首次新进纽约时报\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 06:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765821><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>伯克希尔连续三季抛苹果，Q4苹果持仓市值减少28亿美元，仍是头号重仓股；美银持股一年半来减少50%，仍是第三大重仓股；亚马逊持股环比减少230万股、降幅77%；新进纽约时报超过506万股，市值3.52亿美元；增持雪佛龙12.3亿美元、安达保险持股数增逾9%。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在“股神”巴菲特卸任CEO前最后一个季度继续调整科技巨头持仓，减持多只重仓股的同时，首次建仓传统媒体纽约时报。美东时间2月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765821\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) 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INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765821","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2612496724","content_text":"伯克希尔连续三季抛苹果，Q4苹果持仓市值减少28亿美元，仍是头号重仓股；美银持股一年半来减少50%，仍是第三大重仓股；亚马逊持股环比减少230万股、降幅77%；新进纽约时报超过506万股，市值3.52亿美元；增持雪佛龙12.3亿美元、安达保险持股数增逾9%。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在“股神”巴菲特卸任CEO前最后一个季度继续调整科技巨头持仓，减持多只重仓股的同时，首次建仓传统媒体纽约时报。美东时间2月17日周二美股盘后，递交美国证监会（SEC）的13F文件披露，伯克希尔2025年第四季度大幅削减所持亚马逊股份（AMZN）超过77%，并且连续第三个季度减持苹果（AAPL）。伯克希尔还继续抛售美国银行（BAC），对该行的持股比例降至略低于7%。纽约时报（NYT）是伯克希尔四季度唯一新进的个股，当季建仓超过506万股，市值约3.52亿美元。本周二公布的是巴菲特执掌伯克希尔60年的最后一份13F持仓报告，巴菲特的继任者Greg Abel已于2026年1月1日正式接任CEO。伯克希尔将于2月28日公布全年业绩，届时将发布Abel作为CEO的首封致股东信。持续减持苹果与美银据13F文件，伯克希尔四季度抛售苹果超过1029万股，持股数环比三季度减少4.3%，季末苹果持仓市值环比减少约28亿美元，持仓在伯克希尔投资组合中的占比从三季度的22.69%降至22.60%。以环比减少的市值看，苹果是伯克希尔四季度减持最多的个股，但减持股份还不及前一季。三季度伯克希尔减持苹果约4179万股，持股数环比减少逾14.9%。尽管持续减持，到四季度末，苹果仍是伯克希尔的头号重仓股。美国银行是又一持续被伯克希尔减持的重仓股。四季度伯克希尔卖出将近5080万股美银，持股数环比减少8.9%，持仓占比降至6.89%。到四季度末，美银仍是伯克希尔的第三大重仓股。但伯克希尔的美银持股已经从2024年中的10.3亿股降至5.17亿股，相当于过去一年半来，该行已被减持约50%。亚马逊持股猛降77%按持仓占比变动计算，亚马逊是伯克希尔四季度减持幅度最大的个股。13F文件显示，四季度亚马逊在伯克希尔投资组合中的占比从三季度的0.82%骤降至0.19%，环比降幅达0.63个百分点，持股数量减少至约230万股，环比下降逾77.2%。伯克希尔于2019年首次买入亚马逊。巴菲特当时表示，虽然他历来对科技股持谨慎态度，但没有更早买入这家在线零售巨头的股票是“愚蠢的”。亚马逊股价进入2026年以来已累跌约11%，遭遇20年来最大同期跌幅。本周二，亚马逊刚刚结束连跌九个交易日的2006年以来最长连跌日。截至上周五的九个交易日内，亚马逊市值合计蒸发超4500亿美元，体现了投资者对亚马逊庞大AI相关支出合理性的质疑。亚马逊本月5日公布四季度财报时透露，计划2026年资本支出2000亿美元，年度投入规模超过其他任一科技巨头。建仓纽约时报纽约时报是伯克希尔四季度唯一新建仓的个股。当季伯克希尔买入506.7万股，市值超过3.52亿美元，持有纽约时报约3.1%的股份，持仓在伯克希尔投资组合中位列第30位，占比0.13%。伯克希尔曾长期持有媒体股资产，但在2020年以1.4亿美元将旗下报纸业务出售给Lee Enterprises。巴菲特曾担任华盛顿邮报最大外部股东和董事会成员。纽约时报股价近期表现强劲，今年以来上涨6%，目前接近历史高点74.59美元，过去12个月累计涨幅达50%。增持雪佛龙和安达保险伯克希尔四季度较大幅增持了石油巨头雪佛龙（CVX）和瑞士安达保险（Chubb）。其中，伯克希尔增持安达保险（CB）将近292万股，持股数环比增长9.3%，持股在投资组合中占比从三季度的3.31%升至3.90%，环比提高0.59个百分点。以持仓占比升幅看，安达保险是四季度增持最多的个股。四季度伯克希尔买入雪佛龙逾809万股，持股数环比增长6.6%，持股占比环比增加0.15个百分点至7.24%，市值则环比增加约12.3亿美元。以持仓市值的增幅看，雪佛龙则是四季度增持之最。伯克希尔四季度还增持了36.8万股达美乐披萨（DPZ），持股数环比增长12.3%，持仓增至约14亿美元，排在第20位。伯克希尔对另一必需消费品类股卡夫亨氏的持仓四季度保持不变。Abel近期表示，他支持卡夫亨氏暂停拆分调味品和食品杂货业务的决定。卡夫亨氏在1月的监管文件中披露，最大股东伯克希尔可能出售其持有的近全部3.256亿股。巴菲特去年曾对华尔街日报表示，伯克希尔不支持该拆分计划。根据SEC规定，管理至少1亿美元美国股票的机构投资者必须在每个季度结束后45天内提交13F文件。尽管这些文件提供的是过时的持仓信息，但伯克希尔的披露仍被市场参与者广泛解读，以寻求对该公司投资决策的洞察。十大重仓股仍是“老面孔”到四季度末，以持仓市值计，伯克希尔的十大重仓股都是前一季的“老面孔”，排名大多和三季度相同，只有穆迪和西方石油的排名对换。和三季度一样，四季度这些重仓股之中也只有四只被调整持仓，分别是苹果、美国运通被减持，雪佛龙、安达保险被增持。三季度首次跻身前十的谷歌母公司Alphabet依然排在第十位。三季度被Alphabet挤出前十的肾脏透析服务商德维特（DVA）四季度仍位列第11。四季度伯克希尔的十大重仓股分别是：苹果（AAPL）美国运通（AXP）美银（BAC）可口可乐（KO）雪佛龙（CVX）穆迪（MCO），排名从第七升至第六。西方石油（OXY），排名从第六降至第七。瑞士安达保险（Chubb）（CB）。卡夫亨氏（KHC）。Alphabet（GOOGL）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":2,"AMZN":2,"NYT":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533943769592968,"gmtCreate":1771378254055,"gmtModify":1771379354034,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"狗","listText":"狗","text":"狗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533943769592968","repostId":"2612468012","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612468012","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1771340546,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612468012?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-17 23:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"股价回调不合理！知名科技分析师Dan Ives力挺苹果，维持“跑赢大盘”评级","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612468012","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，苹果公司周二成为华尔街关注焦点。韦德布什证券发布最新研报指出，近期苹果股价的回调“并不合理”，并认为2026年将是苹果真正树立人工智能旗帜的关键一年。韦德布什分析师、科技板块知名多头Dan Ives领衔的研究团队在报告中表示，过去几周苹果股价走弱，主要源于市场担忧部分备受期待的AI功能，尤其是与Siri相关的AI升级，可能出现延迟。基于上述判断，韦德布什维持对苹果的“跑赢大盘”评级，并给予350美元的目标价。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2月17日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司周二成为华尔街关注焦点。韦德布什证券发布最新研报指出，近期苹果股价的回调“并不合理”，并认为2026年将是苹果真正树立人工智能(AI)旗帜的关键一年。</p><p>韦德布什分析师、科技板块知名多头Dan Ives领衔的研究团队在报告中表示，过去几周苹果股价走弱，主要源于市场担忧部分备受期待的AI功能，尤其是与Siri相关的AI升级，可能出现延迟。在过去一年里，投资者对苹果在AI战略上的“反复拉锯”已显得有些疲惫。不过，分析师认为，这种担忧被明显放大了。</p><p>报告指出，苹果当前的核心任务并非“抢时间点”，而是把AI战略“一次性做对”。从目前进展看，苹果仍有望在今年夏季前后推出其更先进的AI功能，这些功能可能分阶段出现在iOS 26.4、iOS 26.5版本中，并最终在9月发布的iOS 27中全面落地。分析师强调，对首席执行官库克和苹果而言，真正的重头戏在于为开发者和消费者构建一个完整、可持续的AI平台，而这一布局将在2026年全面开花结果。</p><p>基于上述判断，韦德布什维持对苹果的“跑赢大盘”评级，并给予350美元的目标价。</p><p>在更深入的分析中，韦德布什也承认，市场对苹果AI前景“心有余悸”并非毫无依据。过去一年，苹果在AI领域的推进节奏和对外沟通确实多次引发质疑。但分析师指出，近期的一系列进展正在扭转这一局面，包括与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>(GOOG.US,GOOGL.US)达成的合作协议，以及引入新的外部高管力量，都显示出苹果管理层已清楚认识到，全新Siri必须成功，且不容再犯错误。</p><p>韦德布什进一步表示，去年的AI“失误”反而为2026年Siri AI平台的正式亮相创造了更大的想象空间。当前华尔街明显低估了这一平台对苹果长期叙事的意义。分析师直言，市场“房间里的大象”依旧是苹果尚未完全显现的AI战略，但考虑到苹果拥有全球最大的消费级生态系统，约25亿台活跃iOS设备和15亿部iPhone，现在正是苹果全面加速AI布局的最佳时机。</p><p>在商业化层面，韦德布什认为，随着AI战略在2026年逐步兑现，其变现潜力有望在未来数年为苹果股价贡献每股75至100美元的增量价值。分析师总结称，一旦AI故事真正展开，市场对苹果的重新定价空间仍然相当可观。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>股价回调不合理！知名科技分析师Dan Ives力挺苹果，维持“跑赢大盘”评级</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股价回调不合理！知名科技分析师Dan Ives力挺苹果，维持“跑赢大盘”评级\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-17 23:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405816.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2月17日，苹果公司周二成为华尔街关注焦点。韦德布什证券发布最新研报指出，近期苹果股价的回调“并不合理”，并认为2026年将是苹果真正树立人工智能(AI)旗帜的关键一年。韦德布什分析师、科技板块知名多头Dan Ives领衔的研究团队在报告中表示，过去几周苹果股价走弱，主要源于市场担忧部分备受期待的AI功能，尤其是与Siri相关的AI升级，可能出现延迟。在过去一年里，投资者对苹果在AI战略上的“反复...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405816.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8bf4565bc4c9ea6e0ff587a10365663","relate_stocks":{"LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1989771016.USD":"东方汇理环球老龄化投资基金 A2 Acc","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1935043536.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY 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27中全面落地。分析师强调，对首席执行官库克和苹果而言，真正的重头戏在于为开发者和消费者构建一个完整、可持续的AI平台，而这一布局将在2026年全面开花结果。基于上述判断，韦德布什维持对苹果的“跑赢大盘”评级，并给予350美元的目标价。在更深入的分析中，韦德布什也承认，市场对苹果AI前景“心有余悸”并非毫无依据。过去一年，苹果在AI领域的推进节奏和对外沟通确实多次引发质疑。但分析师指出，近期的一系列进展正在扭转这一局面，包括与谷歌(GOOG.US,GOOGL.US)达成的合作协议，以及引入新的外部高管力量，都显示出苹果管理层已清楚认识到，全新Siri必须成功，且不容再犯错误。韦德布什进一步表示，去年的AI“失误”反而为2026年Siri 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764440\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764440","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147386700","content_text":"29日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋称，对Rubin的需求令人难以置信的强劲。能源对美国、台湾和欧洲来说是一个巨大挑战。正与英特尔合作开发定制x86处理器。台积电未来十年需要大幅增加产能。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2,"TSM":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":526204017755384,"gmtCreate":1769492667780,"gmtModify":1769492670214,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"14什么意思","listText":"14什么意思","text":"14什么意思","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/526204017755384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":523317353968056,"gmtCreate":1768786508096,"gmtModify":1768786511546,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"8000中多少呢","listText":"8000中多少呢","text":"8000中多少呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/523317353968056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":522057880707512,"gmtCreate":1768491593374,"gmtModify":1768491598290,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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什么公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521968263258824","repostId":"2603625265","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2603625265","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1768437675,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2603625265?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-15 08:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"放弃英伟达“乐高模式”：OpenAI豪赌晶圆级架构，百亿美元押注Cerebras单芯片算力革命！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2603625265","media":"智通财经","summary":"具体来说，OpenAI与Cerebras达成多年期战略合作，将通过后者提供的硬件获得相当于750兆瓦功耗规模的算力支持，以加速人工智能基础设施的快速扩建。根据两家公司周三发布的联合声明，OpenAI已将Cerebras纳入其计算供应商体系，此举旨在实现AI模型运行时更短的响应时间。该基础设施将采取分阶段建设模式，预计在2028年前完成全部部署，并由Cerebras负责托管运营。根据双方联合声明，Cerebras与OpenAI自2017年起便持续探讨技术合作路径。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，2026年1月14日，美股市场在多重负面因素的共振下经历了剧烈波动，三大股指集体收跌，纳斯达克指数以约1%的跌幅领跌大盘。作为市场核心驱动力的科技板块成为当日跌势的重灾区，尤其是半导体行业遭遇了地缘政治与竞争格局改变的双重打击。值得注意的是，OpenAI与AI芯片初创公司Cerebras Systems达成的一项价值100亿美元、涉及750兆瓦算力供应的重磅交易，在客观上对科技股的跌势起到了推波助澜的作用。</p><p>具体来说，OpenAI与Cerebras达成多年期战略合作，将通过后者提供的硬件获得相当于750兆瓦功耗规模的算力支持，以加速人工智能基础设施的快速扩建。根据两家公司周三发布的联合声明，OpenAI已将Cerebras纳入其计算供应商体系，此举旨在实现AI模型运行时更短的响应时间。该基础设施将采取分阶段建设模式，预计在2028年前完成全部部署，并由Cerebras负责托管运营。尽管具体交易条款尚未披露，但知情人士透露，此次合作协议的总规模已超过100亿美元。</p><p>OpenAI联合创始人兼总裁格雷格·布罗克曼表示：“通过此次合作，ChatGPT将不仅成为能力最强的AI平台，更将实现速度上的全面领先。”他进一步强调，这种突破性的响应速度将有效解锁“下一代AI应用场景”，并加速推动“下一个十亿用户”融入人工智能生态。</p><p><span>把AI装进一块“晶圆盘”里：Cerebras的WSE-3如何为OpenAI带来15倍推理速度</span></p><p>据了解，半导体初创企业Cerebras首创基于超大型芯片的独特信息处理架构，正积极推动其技术的广泛应用以挑战市场领导者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)。不同于英伟达采用的\"集群化\"技术路径，Cerebras选择了\"晶圆级(Wafer-Scale)\"创新方向。其旗舰产品WSE-3是一块尺寸堪比餐盘的单体芯片(面积达46,255平方毫米)，直接基于整块12英寸硅晶圆制造而成。Cerebras的核心技术逻辑在于：相较于让数据在成千上万个芯片间进行\"长途跋涉\"式传输，不如将超90万个AI核心与海量内存单元集成于同一巨型芯片内，从而彻底消除跨芯片通信带来的性能瓶颈。</p><p>在应用场景维度，Cerebras的核心优势体现为极致的推理速度表现。以运行Llama 4等超大模型为例，其单芯片架构可实现每秒近千词的低延迟输出，这种特性使其天然适配对交互实时性要求严苛的场景，如智能体(Agent)决策、代码实时生成等应用。更值得关注的是，开发者无需接触复杂的分布式集群配置，仅需以单台计算机的编程模式即可完成部署，降低了AI模型的开发与运维门槛。</p><p>总体而言，如果把英伟达比作“乐高积木”，你可以通过堆叠无数块积木盖出摩天大楼，虽然连接处会有损耗，但非常灵活;那么 Cerebras 就是“一块完整的巨型<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600696\">岩石</a>”，它结构紧密、效率极高，但一旦定型就无法轻易拆分，且制造难度极大。</p><p>这也是为什么 OpenAI 选择与 Cerebras 合作：在 2026 年，随着 AI 模型向“实时互动”转型，推理速度成为了比训练规模更关键的战场，而 Cerebras 的巨型芯片恰恰在这个细分赛道上具备压倒性优势。</p><p>与此同时，该公司通过运营自有数据中心展示其硬件组件的性能优势，并构建稳定的经常性收入体系。此次与OpenAI达成的高规格战略合作协议，不仅验证了其技术实力，更使Cerebras有望参与分享当前全球正在投入人工智能计算新基础设施建设的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">数百亿</a>美元市场机遇。</p><p>Cerebras创始人兼首席执行官安德鲁·费尔德曼强调，AI推理阶段——即模型响应查询的过程——对于技术进步具有关键意义，而这也正是其产品的核心竞争力所在。</p><p>在接受采访时，费尔德曼进一步阐释：“我们选择创新且差异化的架构设计，不仅因为其能实现更快的响应速度，更在于它能为合作伙伴创造显著价值。此次与OpenAI等头部机构达成的战略合作，不仅让Cerebras成功跻身行业头部阵营，更标志着高速推理技术正式进入主流应用阶段。”</p><p>值得注意的是，Cerebras目前正积极推进融资进程，为潜在的首次公开募股(IPO)做准备。据知情人士本周早些时候透露，该公司已就一轮约10亿美元的新融资展开讨论。该人士还表示，在此轮融资完成前，这家初创企业的估值已达到约220亿美元。</p><p><span>OpenAI百亿算力订单震撼市场：Cerebras技术突围撼动英伟达王座</span></p><p>对于OpenAI而言，此次与Cerebras的协议仅是其为扩大算力而达成的最新一笔大型数据中心交易，这深刻反映了科技行业史无前例的战略共识——市场对高能耗AI工具的需求将长期维持高位增长态势。</p><p>具体来看行业动态：去年9月，英伟达宣布将对OpenAI进行高达1000亿美元的战略投资，专项用于建设AI基础设施及电力容量至少达10吉瓦的新数据中心;10月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>(AMD.US)披露将多年内为OpenAI部署相当于6吉瓦的图形处理单元，值得注意的是，1吉瓦的电力容量约相当于一座常规核电站的装机规模。与此同时，开发ChatGPT等AI工具的OpenAI正与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>(AVGO.US)合作研发自研芯片，进一步强化技术自主性。</p><p>根据双方联合声明，Cerebras与OpenAI自2017年起便持续探讨技术合作路径。此次合作成果显著，Cerebras近期在支持OpenAI的GPT-OSS-120B模型运行中展现出突破性优势——其处理速度较传统硬件提升15倍，充分验证了晶圆级架构在超大模型推理场景中的性能潜力。</p><p>尽管该协议展示了AI行业的增长活力，但其天文数字级的合同金额进一步加剧了市场对科技巨头资本开支压力的焦虑。投资者日益担心AI基础设施投入已演变为“利润黑洞”，大规模的持续性支出可能在未来数年内严重侵蚀大型科技公司的利润率，从而对板块的整体盈利前景产生怀疑并引发抛售。</p><p>此外，这笔百亿大单也标志着AI算力市场垄断格局的松动，对现有巨头的估值逻辑产生了深远影响。Cerebras凭借其“晶圆级芯片”在推理速度上的技术优势，获得了顶级AI机构的战略背书，这直接挑战了英伟达在高性能AI芯片领域的绝对统治地位。市场对英伟达及其生态伙伴的长期溢价空间正展开新一轮评估，竞争加剧预期与资本效率担忧交织影响，促使科技股在1月14日交易日内呈现调整态势。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>放弃英伟达“乐高模式”：OpenAI豪赌晶圆级架构，百亿美元押注Cerebras单芯片算力革命！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n放弃英伟达“乐高模式”：OpenAI豪赌晶圆级架构，百亿美元押注Cerebras单芯片算力革命！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-15 08:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1393068.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，2026年1月14日，美股市场在多重负面因素的共振下经历了剧烈波动，三大股指集体收跌，纳斯达克指数以约1%的跌幅领跌大盘。作为市场核心驱动力的科技板块成为当日跌势的重灾区，尤其是半导体行业遭遇了地缘政治与竞争格局改变的双重打击。值得注意的是，OpenAI与AI芯片初创公司Cerebras Systems达成的一项价值100亿美元、涉及750兆瓦算力供应的重磅交易，在客观上对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1393068.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE0001KFT4U8.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE GLOBAL GROWTH LEADERS \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0009G5SDU7.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) INC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2860962120.EUR":"CPR INVEST - ARTIFICIAL 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INTELLIGENT CITIES INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2322448957.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES INCOME \"AMG\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1393068.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2603625265","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，2026年1月14日，美股市场在多重负面因素的共振下经历了剧烈波动，三大股指集体收跌，纳斯达克指数以约1%的跌幅领跌大盘。作为市场核心驱动力的科技板块成为当日跌势的重灾区，尤其是半导体行业遭遇了地缘政治与竞争格局改变的双重打击。值得注意的是，OpenAI与AI芯片初创公司Cerebras Systems达成的一项价值100亿美元、涉及750兆瓦算力供应的重磅交易，在客观上对科技股的跌势起到了推波助澜的作用。具体来说，OpenAI与Cerebras达成多年期战略合作，将通过后者提供的硬件获得相当于750兆瓦功耗规模的算力支持，以加速人工智能基础设施的快速扩建。根据两家公司周三发布的联合声明，OpenAI已将Cerebras纳入其计算供应商体系，此举旨在实现AI模型运行时更短的响应时间。该基础设施将采取分阶段建设模式，预计在2028年前完成全部部署，并由Cerebras负责托管运营。尽管具体交易条款尚未披露，但知情人士透露，此次合作协议的总规模已超过100亿美元。OpenAI联合创始人兼总裁格雷格·布罗克曼表示：“通过此次合作，ChatGPT将不仅成为能力最强的AI平台，更将实现速度上的全面领先。”他进一步强调，这种突破性的响应速度将有效解锁“下一代AI应用场景”，并加速推动“下一个十亿用户”融入人工智能生态。把AI装进一块“晶圆盘”里：Cerebras的WSE-3如何为OpenAI带来15倍推理速度据了解，半导体初创企业Cerebras首创基于超大型芯片的独特信息处理架构，正积极推动其技术的广泛应用以挑战市场领导者英伟达(NVDA.US)。不同于英伟达采用的\"集群化\"技术路径，Cerebras选择了\"晶圆级(Wafer-Scale)\"创新方向。其旗舰产品WSE-3是一块尺寸堪比餐盘的单体芯片(面积达46,255平方毫米)，直接基于整块12英寸硅晶圆制造而成。Cerebras的核心技术逻辑在于：相较于让数据在成千上万个芯片间进行\"长途跋涉\"式传输，不如将超90万个AI核心与海量内存单元集成于同一巨型芯片内，从而彻底消除跨芯片通信带来的性能瓶颈。在应用场景维度，Cerebras的核心优势体现为极致的推理速度表现。以运行Llama 4等超大模型为例，其单芯片架构可实现每秒近千词的低延迟输出，这种特性使其天然适配对交互实时性要求严苛的场景，如智能体(Agent)决策、代码实时生成等应用。更值得关注的是，开发者无需接触复杂的分布式集群配置，仅需以单台计算机的编程模式即可完成部署，降低了AI模型的开发与运维门槛。总体而言，如果把英伟达比作“乐高积木”，你可以通过堆叠无数块积木盖出摩天大楼，虽然连接处会有损耗，但非常灵活;那么 Cerebras 就是“一块完整的巨型岩石”，它结构紧密、效率极高，但一旦定型就无法轻易拆分，且制造难度极大。这也是为什么 OpenAI 选择与 Cerebras 合作：在 2026 年，随着 AI 模型向“实时互动”转型，推理速度成为了比训练规模更关键的战场，而 Cerebras 的巨型芯片恰恰在这个细分赛道上具备压倒性优势。与此同时，该公司通过运营自有数据中心展示其硬件组件的性能优势，并构建稳定的经常性收入体系。此次与OpenAI达成的高规格战略合作协议，不仅验证了其技术实力，更使Cerebras有望参与分享当前全球正在投入人工智能计算新基础设施建设的数百亿美元市场机遇。Cerebras创始人兼首席执行官安德鲁·费尔德曼强调，AI推理阶段——即模型响应查询的过程——对于技术进步具有关键意义，而这也正是其产品的核心竞争力所在。在接受采访时，费尔德曼进一步阐释：“我们选择创新且差异化的架构设计，不仅因为其能实现更快的响应速度，更在于它能为合作伙伴创造显著价值。此次与OpenAI等头部机构达成的战略合作，不仅让Cerebras成功跻身行业头部阵营，更标志着高速推理技术正式进入主流应用阶段。”值得注意的是，Cerebras目前正积极推进融资进程，为潜在的首次公开募股(IPO)做准备。据知情人士本周早些时候透露，该公司已就一轮约10亿美元的新融资展开讨论。该人士还表示，在此轮融资完成前，这家初创企业的估值已达到约220亿美元。OpenAI百亿算力订单震撼市场：Cerebras技术突围撼动英伟达王座对于OpenAI而言，此次与Cerebras的协议仅是其为扩大算力而达成的最新一笔大型数据中心交易，这深刻反映了科技行业史无前例的战略共识——市场对高能耗AI工具的需求将长期维持高位增长态势。具体来看行业动态：去年9月，英伟达宣布将对OpenAI进行高达1000亿美元的战略投资，专项用于建设AI基础设施及电力容量至少达10吉瓦的新数据中心;10月，AMD(AMD.US)披露将多年内为OpenAI部署相当于6吉瓦的图形处理单元，值得注意的是，1吉瓦的电力容量约相当于一座常规核电站的装机规模。与此同时，开发ChatGPT等AI工具的OpenAI正与博通(AVGO.US)合作研发自研芯片，进一步强化技术自主性。根据双方联合声明，Cerebras与OpenAI自2017年起便持续探讨技术合作路径。此次合作成果显著，Cerebras近期在支持OpenAI的GPT-OSS-120B模型运行中展现出突破性优势——其处理速度较传统硬件提升15倍，充分验证了晶圆级架构在超大模型推理场景中的性能潜力。尽管该协议展示了AI行业的增长活力，但其天文数字级的合同金额进一步加剧了市场对科技巨头资本开支压力的焦虑。投资者日益担心AI基础设施投入已演变为“利润黑洞”，大规模的持续性支出可能在未来数年内严重侵蚀大型科技公司的利润率，从而对板块的整体盈利前景产生怀疑并引发抛售。此外，这笔百亿大单也标志着AI算力市场垄断格局的松动，对现有巨头的估值逻辑产生了深远影响。Cerebras凭借其“晶圆级芯片”在推理速度上的技术优势，获得了顶级AI机构的战略背书，这直接挑战了英伟达在高性能AI芯片领域的绝对统治地位。市场对英伟达及其生态伙伴的长期溢价空间正展开新一轮评估，竞争加剧预期与资本效率担忧交织影响，促使科技股在1月14日交易日内呈现调整态势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDG":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDA":1.88,"DIPS":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521711750374088,"gmtCreate":1768407090729,"gmtModify":1768407092596,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？？？","listText":"？？？","text":"？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521711750374088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":521006790669664,"gmtCreate":1768227660597,"gmtModify":1768227682503,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521006790669664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":520996805866792,"gmtCreate":1768225194824,"gmtModify":1768225196712,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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07:32","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"知乎-W(02390)1月9日斥资11.66万美元回购9.9万股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602653645","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP讯，知乎-W(02390)发布公告，于2026年1月9日斥资11.66万美元回购9.9万股。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP讯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02390\">知乎-W</a>(02390)发布公告，于2026年1月9日斥资11.66万美元回购9.9万股。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>知乎-W(02390)1月9日斥资11.66万美元回购9.9万股</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n知乎-W(02390)1月9日斥资11.66万美元回购9.9万股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-12 07:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391347.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP讯，知乎-W(02390)发布公告，于2026年1月9日斥资11.66万美元回购9.9万股。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391347.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02390":"知乎-W","BK4539":"次新股","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","ZH":"知乎","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4509":"腾讯概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391347.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2602653645","content_text":"智通财经APP讯，知乎-W(02390)发布公告，于2026年1月9日斥资11.66万美元回购9.9万股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02390":1.5,"ZH":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":520538180597184,"gmtCreate":1768105839395,"gmtModify":1768105841755,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"美国就是虚张声势 有种干点大的","listText":"美国就是虚张声势 有种干点大的","text":"美国就是虚张声势 有种干点大的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520538180597184","repostId":"2602534528","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2602534528","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1768094428,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2602534528?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-11 09:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"2026年第一周给全球投资者的经验：动荡不止、军工不败","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602534528","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"2026年开年，地缘震荡频发促使军工板块成为全球核心主题。高盛欧洲军工股篮子继去年暴涨后再涨21%，韩国防务商亦大幅飙升。市场预期各国将加速重整军备并转向国防自立。尽管美股受回购限制涨幅较稳，但全球防务开支激增正持续重塑行业估值与盈利预期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>2026年开年，地缘震荡频发促使军工板块成为全球核心主题。高盛欧洲军工股篮子继去年暴涨后再涨21%，韩国防务商亦大幅飙升。市场预期各国将加速重整军备并转向国防自立。尽管美股受回购限制涨幅较稳，但全球防务开支激增正持续重塑行业估值与盈利预期。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年的前10个交易日已向全球市场传递出一个明确的信号：地缘政治的不稳定性正在加剧，这促使军工板块继续确立其作为年度核心长期增长主题的地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">引发这一轮市场重新定价的催化剂来自多重地缘震荡。俄乌冲突持续深入，美军在委内瑞拉采取行动强行控制其领导人，以及特朗普重申美国应控制格陵兰岛的言论，加剧了市场对全球安全架构的担忧。这些事件不仅令投资者警觉，更直接强化了各国政府增加军事开支的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场对此作出了激烈的反应。据彭博数据，<strong>高盛编制的一篮子欧洲军工股继2025年飙升90%之后，仅在今年1月便再度上涨21%。</strong>这一涨势同样蔓延至亚洲市场，韩国和日本的主要防务承包商股价均录得双位数涨幅。欧洲和亚洲的投资者已达成共识，即国防类股票有望迎来又一个强劲年份。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管部分分析师警示估值压力，但主流观点认为，全球重整军备的步伐必须加快以应对日益不确定的世界。Morningstar的分析指出，受本土经济状况及对美支出的敞口影响，欧洲军工股今年平均仍有20%的上涨空间，而特朗普关于格陵兰岛的言论预计将加速欧洲向国防自力更生的战略转变。</p><h2 id=\"id_875632918\">地缘政治焦虑催化资金涌入</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全球地缘政治格局的动荡正在重塑投资逻辑。WisdomTree宏观经济研究主管Aneeka Gupta指出，近期事件是一个巨大的警钟，表明关键美国可能无法被过度依赖，这意味着重整军备的水平和速度都需要提升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，特朗普呼吁将华盛顿的国防预算增加5000亿美元，这一主张进一步助推了市场热情。投资者押注这一预算增长将不仅惠及美国本土企业，还将产生溢出效应。<strong>美银策略师Michael Hartnett在给客户的报告中引用了一位伦敦客户的观点，称国防已成为“各地最好的长期股票主题”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在欧洲，处于该地区军事开支计划核心的德国军火制造商Rheinmetall AG成为投资者首选。继2025年创纪录地上涨150%后，该股在1月又上涨了约22%。Union Investment Privatfonds GmbH的投资组合经理Vera Diehl表示，鉴于地理位置邻近格陵兰岛，Saab AB和Kongsberg Gruppen ASA也将从地缘紧张局势中受益。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一轮反弹也促使欧洲国防工业的主要参与者加速资本运作。据知情人士透露，由亿万富翁Michal Strnad拥有的装甲车和弹药制造商Czechoslovak Group AS正在考虑最早于下周在阿姆斯特丹启动首次公开募股（IPO）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在亚洲，国防与安全也迅速成为2026开年的主要投资主题，这主要得益于该地区企业在出口订单方面的增长预期。韩国承包商表现尤为抢眼，Hanwha Aerospace Co.股价在上一年翻了两番后，本月上涨近30%；同行业的Hyundai Rotem Co.也上涨了16%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">JPMorgan Private Bank全球投资策略师Weiheng Chen表示，看好大型国防供应商，尤其是韩国企业，因为它们正扩大出口业务以利用全球国防开支激增的红利。</p><h2 id=\"id_817819118\">美股限制与估值隐忧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国本土国防股虽同样上涨，但涨幅相对温和。高盛编制的美国承包商篮子在2025年上涨30%后，今年1月上涨了13%。<strong>虽然特朗普推动增加军事开支是利好，但他计划限制该行业的股票回购和分红，这在一定程度上抑制了市场情绪。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Mediobanca以Alessandro Pozzi为首的分析师团队认为，对资本再分配的限制可能会打击投资者对美国国防股的兴趣，从而使欧洲同行更具吸引力。他们评估认为，BAE Systems Plc和Leonardo SpA在其覆盖的股票中对美国预算的敞口最大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管行业前景强劲，但市场并非毫无风险。如果乌克兰和平努力取得突破，可能会抑制市场情绪。<strong>另一个担忧在于估值：近期的反弹已将欧洲军工股推高至相对于区域基准指数较为昂贵的水平</strong>。BNP Paribas法国及南欧目标配置主管Fabien Benchetrit认为，只要各国坚持增加自主权并改善国防基础设施，该行业的长期基本面依然稳固，但投资者也在密切关注政府的巨额军事开支何时能切实转化为企业的盈利数据。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2026年第一周给全球投资者的经验：动荡不止、军工不败</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2026年第一周给全球投资者的经验：动荡不止、军工不败\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-11 09:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763027><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2026年开年，地缘震荡频发促使军工板块成为全球核心主题。高盛欧洲军工股篮子继去年暴涨后再涨21%，韩国防务商亦大幅飙升。市场预期各国将加速重整军备并转向国防自立。尽管美股受回购限制涨幅较稳，但全球防务开支激增正持续重塑行业估值与盈利预期。2026年的前10个交易日已向全球市场传递出一个明确的信号：地缘政治的不稳定性正在加剧，这促使军工板块继续确立其作为年度核心长期增长主题的地位。引发这一轮市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763027\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763027","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2602534528","content_text":"2026年开年，地缘震荡频发促使军工板块成为全球核心主题。高盛欧洲军工股篮子继去年暴涨后再涨21%，韩国防务商亦大幅飙升。市场预期各国将加速重整军备并转向国防自立。尽管美股受回购限制涨幅较稳，但全球防务开支激增正持续重塑行业估值与盈利预期。2026年的前10个交易日已向全球市场传递出一个明确的信号：地缘政治的不稳定性正在加剧，这促使军工板块继续确立其作为年度核心长期增长主题的地位。引发这一轮市场重新定价的催化剂来自多重地缘震荡。俄乌冲突持续深入，美军在委内瑞拉采取行动强行控制其领导人，以及特朗普重申美国应控制格陵兰岛的言论，加剧了市场对全球安全架构的担忧。这些事件不仅令投资者警觉，更直接强化了各国政府增加军事开支的预期。市场对此作出了激烈的反应。据彭博数据，高盛编制的一篮子欧洲军工股继2025年飙升90%之后，仅在今年1月便再度上涨21%。这一涨势同样蔓延至亚洲市场，韩国和日本的主要防务承包商股价均录得双位数涨幅。欧洲和亚洲的投资者已达成共识，即国防类股票有望迎来又一个强劲年份。尽管部分分析师警示估值压力，但主流观点认为，全球重整军备的步伐必须加快以应对日益不确定的世界。Morningstar的分析指出，受本土经济状况及对美支出的敞口影响，欧洲军工股今年平均仍有20%的上涨空间，而特朗普关于格陵兰岛的言论预计将加速欧洲向国防自力更生的战略转变。地缘政治焦虑催化资金涌入全球地缘政治格局的动荡正在重塑投资逻辑。WisdomTree宏观经济研究主管Aneeka Gupta指出，近期事件是一个巨大的警钟，表明关键美国可能无法被过度依赖，这意味着重整军备的水平和速度都需要提升。与此同时，特朗普呼吁将华盛顿的国防预算增加5000亿美元，这一主张进一步助推了市场热情。投资者押注这一预算增长将不仅惠及美国本土企业，还将产生溢出效应。美银策略师Michael Hartnett在给客户的报告中引用了一位伦敦客户的观点，称国防已成为“各地最好的长期股票主题”。在欧洲，处于该地区军事开支计划核心的德国军火制造商Rheinmetall AG成为投资者首选。继2025年创纪录地上涨150%后，该股在1月又上涨了约22%。Union Investment Privatfonds GmbH的投资组合经理Vera Diehl表示，鉴于地理位置邻近格陵兰岛，Saab AB和Kongsberg Gruppen ASA也将从地缘紧张局势中受益。这一轮反弹也促使欧洲国防工业的主要参与者加速资本运作。据知情人士透露，由亿万富翁Michal Strnad拥有的装甲车和弹药制造商Czechoslovak Group AS正在考虑最早于下周在阿姆斯特丹启动首次公开募股（IPO）。在亚洲，国防与安全也迅速成为2026开年的主要投资主题，这主要得益于该地区企业在出口订单方面的增长预期。韩国承包商表现尤为抢眼，Hanwha Aerospace Co.股价在上一年翻了两番后，本月上涨近30%；同行业的Hyundai Rotem Co.也上涨了16%。JPMorgan Private Bank全球投资策略师Weiheng Chen表示，看好大型国防供应商，尤其是韩国企业，因为它们正扩大出口业务以利用全球国防开支激增的红利。美股限制与估值隐忧美国本土国防股虽同样上涨，但涨幅相对温和。高盛编制的美国承包商篮子在2025年上涨30%后，今年1月上涨了13%。虽然特朗普推动增加军事开支是利好，但他计划限制该行业的股票回购和分红，这在一定程度上抑制了市场情绪。Mediobanca以Alessandro Pozzi为首的分析师团队认为，对资本再分配的限制可能会打击投资者对美国国防股的兴趣，从而使欧洲同行更具吸引力。他们评估认为，BAE Systems Plc和Leonardo SpA在其覆盖的股票中对美国预算的敞口最大。尽管行业前景强劲，但市场并非毫无风险。如果乌克兰和平努力取得突破，可能会抑制市场情绪。另一个担忧在于估值：近期的反弹已将欧洲军工股推高至相对于区域基准指数较为昂贵的水平。BNP Paribas法国及南欧目标配置主管Fabien Benchetrit认为，只要各国坚持增加自主权并改善国防基础设施，该行业的长期基本面依然稳固，但投资者也在密切关注政府的巨额军事开支何时能切实转化为企业的盈利数据。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":2,"NDX":2,".IXIC":2,".SPX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520505081087424,"gmtCreate":1768097758460,"gmtModify":1768099884286,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"牛逼","listText":"牛逼","text":"牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520505081087424","repostId":"2602534102","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2602534102","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1768096800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2602534102?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-11 10:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克宣布“X将在7天内公开所有算法”，包括推荐算法，以后每四周1次","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602534102","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"马斯克承诺将在未来七天内开源X平台的新算法，并开启“四周一更”的常态化机制。此举意在通过全透明化回应监管压力与用户质疑，同时加速向“纯AI驱动”推荐引擎转型。尽管面临全球监管风暴与Grok争议，X正试图以技术彻底重构社交媒体的信任与流量逻辑。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>马斯克承诺将在未来七天内开源X平台的新算法，并开启“四周一更”的常态化机制。此举意在通过全透明化回应监管压力与用户质疑，同时加速向“纯AI驱动”推荐引擎转型。尽管面临全球监管风暴与Grok争议，X正试图以技术彻底重构社交媒体的信任与流量逻辑。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克最新承诺，将在未来七天内向公众开放该平台的新算法，此举标志着这家社交媒体巨头在透明度方面迈出了激进的一步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克周六在X平台上发帖称，这一开源举措并非一次性事件，而是将形成常态化机制。他表示，<strong>X平台此后每四周将重复一次算法公开流程，并附上详尽的开发者说明，</strong>旨在帮助外界清晰理解算法的具体变动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次声明正值X平台与全球监管机构在内容审核与推荐机制上摩擦不断之际。通过定期公开算法，X可能试图缓解外界对其不透明运作的担忧，同时也回应了用户关于信息流推荐质量的质疑。然而，马斯克并未明确阐述此次突然决定开源的具体动机。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此举可能对数字广告市场及社交媒体运营模式产生深远影响。若核心推荐逻辑完全透明化，不仅将改变内容创作者的策略，亦将让广告主更直观地理解其投放内容的触达机制，同时也为监管机构审查平台是否存在偏见或操纵提供了直接依据。</p><h2 id=\"id_1860718422\">AI驱动的推荐机制转型</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">X平台目前正致力于深化人工智能技术在其推荐算法中的应用。马斯克在去年10月曾表示，用户所感受到的信息流改善，并非源于人为调整启发式规则，而是更多地依赖于Grok及其他AI工具的使用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据马斯克此前披露，<strong>公司的目标是让X的推荐引擎“纯粹由AI驱动”。</strong>公司计划利用马斯克旗下的人工智能聊天机器人Grok，对每天发布在X上的超过1亿条帖子进行评估。经过Grok筛选后，系统将向个人用户推送最可能令其感兴趣的内容。马斯克曾断言，这一机制将“深刻提升信息流的质量”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">去年9月，马斯克曾提出过更为频繁的开源计划，当时声称每两周就会分享一次开源算法。尽管此次调整为每四周一次，但这仍表明公司正试图将AI全面整合进其核心运营架构中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管马斯克近年来多次承诺公开X的部分算法，但实际执行情况一直不稳定。此次声明之前，<strong>部分X用户曾抱怨由于平台变动，他们能看到的关注对象发布的帖子数量减少。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">针对这一问题，马斯克在去年10月确认，公司在“For You”（推荐）算法中发现了一个“重大漏洞”，并承诺进行修复。此次宣布全面开源并定期更新，或许是修复信任和技术漏洞的进一步举措。</p><h2 id=\"id_1709540149\">全球监管压力加剧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在马斯克宣布这一消息的背景下，X平台正面临来自全球监管机构日益严厉的审查，主要集中在错误信息传播、内容审核不足及透明度缺失等问题上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">欧洲监管机构尤其加强了对此的关注。法国曾在去年7月的一项调查中要求X分享其算法，以调查偏见和操纵指控。当时X方面拒绝了这一请求，指责该调查具有政治动机。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，Grok的图像生成功能近期因在X上引发大量涉及妇女和儿童的性化AI生成图像而遭受严厉批评。英国首相斯塔默本周已要求X就此问题“紧急整改”，英国技术大臣Liz Kendall甚至警告，若不遵守法律，可能会阻止该服务在英国的访问。印尼此前已因性内容生成问题对Grok进行了封锁。截至周五，Grok已告知X平台用户，生成和编辑图像功能将转为付费订阅服务，取消了最初的免费额度。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克宣布“X将在7天内公开所有算法”，包括推荐算法，以后每四周1次</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克宣布“X将在7天内公开所有算法”，包括推荐算法，以后每四周1次\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-11 10:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763028><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>马斯克承诺将在未来七天内开源X平台的新算法，并开启“四周一更”的常态化机制。此举意在通过全透明化回应监管压力与用户质疑，同时加速向“纯AI驱动”推荐引擎转型。尽管面临全球监管风暴与Grok争议，X正试图以技术彻底重构社交媒体的信任与流量逻辑。马斯克最新承诺，将在未来七天内向公众开放该平台的新算法，此举标志着这家社交媒体巨头在透明度方面迈出了激进的一步。马斯克周六在X平台上发帖称，这一开源举措并非...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763028\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e64086f85a74ce5c47911bf92821a92","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763028","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2602534102","content_text":"马斯克承诺将在未来七天内开源X平台的新算法，并开启“四周一更”的常态化机制。此举意在通过全透明化回应监管压力与用户质疑，同时加速向“纯AI驱动”推荐引擎转型。尽管面临全球监管风暴与Grok争议，X正试图以技术彻底重构社交媒体的信任与流量逻辑。马斯克最新承诺，将在未来七天内向公众开放该平台的新算法，此举标志着这家社交媒体巨头在透明度方面迈出了激进的一步。马斯克周六在X平台上发帖称，这一开源举措并非一次性事件，而是将形成常态化机制。他表示，X平台此后每四周将重复一次算法公开流程，并附上详尽的开发者说明，旨在帮助外界清晰理解算法的具体变动。此次声明正值X平台与全球监管机构在内容审核与推荐机制上摩擦不断之际。通过定期公开算法，X可能试图缓解外界对其不透明运作的担忧，同时也回应了用户关于信息流推荐质量的质疑。然而，马斯克并未明确阐述此次突然决定开源的具体动机。此举可能对数字广告市场及社交媒体运营模式产生深远影响。若核心推荐逻辑完全透明化，不仅将改变内容创作者的策略，亦将让广告主更直观地理解其投放内容的触达机制，同时也为监管机构审查平台是否存在偏见或操纵提供了直接依据。AI驱动的推荐机制转型X平台目前正致力于深化人工智能技术在其推荐算法中的应用。马斯克在去年10月曾表示，用户所感受到的信息流改善，并非源于人为调整启发式规则，而是更多地依赖于Grok及其他AI工具的使用。据马斯克此前披露，公司的目标是让X的推荐引擎“纯粹由AI驱动”。公司计划利用马斯克旗下的人工智能聊天机器人Grok，对每天发布在X上的超过1亿条帖子进行评估。经过Grok筛选后，系统将向个人用户推送最可能令其感兴趣的内容。马斯克曾断言，这一机制将“深刻提升信息流的质量”。去年9月，马斯克曾提出过更为频繁的开源计划，当时声称每两周就会分享一次开源算法。尽管此次调整为每四周一次，但这仍表明公司正试图将AI全面整合进其核心运营架构中。尽管马斯克近年来多次承诺公开X的部分算法，但实际执行情况一直不稳定。此次声明之前，部分X用户曾抱怨由于平台变动，他们能看到的关注对象发布的帖子数量减少。针对这一问题，马斯克在去年10月确认，公司在“For You”（推荐）算法中发现了一个“重大漏洞”，并承诺进行修复。此次宣布全面开源并定期更新，或许是修复信任和技术漏洞的进一步举措。全球监管压力加剧在马斯克宣布这一消息的背景下，X平台正面临来自全球监管机构日益严厉的审查，主要集中在错误信息传播、内容审核不足及透明度缺失等问题上。欧洲监管机构尤其加强了对此的关注。法国曾在去年7月的一项调查中要求X分享其算法，以调查偏见和操纵指控。当时X方面拒绝了这一请求，指责该调查具有政治动机。此外，Grok的图像生成功能近期因在X上引发大量涉及妇女和儿童的性化AI生成图像而遭受严厉批评。英国首相斯塔默本周已要求X就此问题“紧急整改”，英国技术大臣Liz Kendall甚至警告，若不遵守法律，可能会阻止该服务在英国的访问。印尼此前已因性内容生成问题对Grok进行了封锁。截至周五，Grok已告知X平台用户，生成和编辑图像功能将转为付费订阅服务，取消了最初的免费额度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.88}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520488283293176,"gmtCreate":1768093668040,"gmtModify":1768093670164,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这些所谓的专家放出这些言论什么意思","listText":"这些所谓的专家放出这些言论什么意思","text":"这些所谓的专家放出这些言论什么意思","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520488283293176","repostId":"1199939577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199939577","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1768092201,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199939577?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-11 08:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"涨价，涨价！新能源替代潮来袭，下一个“苹果级”回报就在眼前？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199939577","media":"券商中国","summary":"10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实，而新能源龙头企业也或将迎来高利润和高股东回报阶段。现在投新能源龙头企业，正类似2011年段永平买入苹果公司或者巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司。据中国汽车流通协会数据，2025年11月国内新能源乘用车零售渗透率增长至59.3%，较去年同期提升7个百分点。在2025年12月第一周，这一数字更是首次突破60%达62.2%，新能源汽车已成为大多消费者的选择。新能源汽车的替代率目前已经接近10%，未来是10%到100%的市场空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2025年以来，铜涨价、锂涨价，镍钴涨价，铝涨价，甚至连硫磺也在涨价，这显然不是单纯的经济复苏或货币现象所致，因为水泥、玻璃、钢铁等其他资源品行情依然在底部盘整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“春江水暖鸭先知”，榕树投资翟敬勇对新能源行业的跟踪长达10年。他感受到的是一轮由于新能源行业需求爆发而导致的资源品涨价超级周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福也曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实，而新能源龙头企业也或将迎来高利润和高股东回报阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇是一位自下而上的投资者，他总是在调研的路上，过去近30年的时间跑了500多家上市公司。2015年以来，翟敬勇的调研重心非常自然地从万华化学、贵州茅台等传统经济龙头公司身上，转向了宁德时代、阳光电源等新能源公司身上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇近期在接受券商中国记者采访时认为，新能源汽车销量国内乘用车渗透率今年已经接近60%，对于投资者来说，业绩大爆发的新能源龙头企业已经迎来高股东回报时刻，这一行业从十年之前的负债率偏高、估值高企等“难投”阶段，变为高利润、高现金流、低负债率、低估值、高股东回报的“甜蜜”阶段，类似巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司或段永平在2011年买入苹果公司的阶段。</p><h2 id=\"id_2912409282\">相似的逻辑或在上演？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇早在两年前就重仓多家新能源龙头企业，在他看来，这些企业在其买入之时的估值仅有5到8倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在2024年初，某新能源电池龙头企业股价最低为140元/股，市值为5800亿元。翟敬勇计算认为，这家公司2025年的账面利润大概在700亿元，如果将质保金和加速折旧的利润加回利润总额，那么这家企业的年利润大概在1000亿元，这是因为该公司每年提取的100多亿的质保金动用的概率非常小，而该公司的折旧年限仅为3年，远远低于同行业8年的平均折旧年限。按照当时的市值来算，该公司的实际估值仅为6倍左右。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇认为，价值投资的核心是不会变的，即“买股票就是买公司，用4毛钱的东西买1块钱的东西”，因此便宜就是硬道理，无论是当下买新能源龙头企业，还是段永平2011年买苹果公司，亦或是巴菲特2015年买苹果公司，都是基于同样的道理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果在2006年下半年，推出第一款iPhone 1，从那个时候，市场开始慢慢接受智能手机。但是，苹果公司的利润率并没有上来，在那个时候展现的是一个高PE估值。段永平是在2011年开始买入苹果公司的，那个时候苹果市值约3000亿美元，苹果公司账上有1000亿美元的现金，那个时候苹果的年利润不到200亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在2011年时，段永平认为，苹果未来5年左右盈利大概率会涨很多，年利润至少会到达500亿美元，那就相当于用2000亿美元左右市值买个目前每年赚接近200亿美元，未来5年左右会赚到年赚500亿美元以上的公司，而且往后还会继续很好。段永平说，如果有这个结论，买苹果不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的机会成本就可以决定了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年元旦，段永平晒出了他所管理的一个账户。该账户持仓全部是苹果公司，最早的一笔是2011年11月18日买入，耗资180.26万美元，截至2025年12月31日，盈利3392.08万美元，总回报1881.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇说，当前阶段买入新能源龙头企业，类似2011年买入苹果公司，彼时智能手机的保有率正开始从10%上升到100%。智能手机在2011年时不到中国市场手机保有量的10%，而现在新能源汽车的保有量也不到传统汽车保有量的10%。现在投新能源龙头企业，正类似2011年段永平买入苹果公司或者巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇认为，随着智能手机的大规模普及，苹果公司赚得盆满钵满，段永平买入苹果公司之时，苹果公司的市值仅为3000亿美元，而此后的10年时间中，苹果公司仅用分红加回购的方式就为股东派发超过1万亿美元，未来随着新能源汽车保有量从10%上升到100%，新能源龙头公司也必将超预期地回报股东。</p><h2 id=\"id_1289073398\">新能源行业的爆发推动上游资源品涨价</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇对新能源行业的上游资源品公司进行了布局，他认为国内汽车保有量为3.53亿辆，而‌全国新能源汽车保有量为3140万辆‌，新能源汽车目前占比不到10%，未来十年的大趋势是新能源汽车几乎全部替代传统汽车，这一趋势与2011年智能手机替代功能性手机一样，龙头企业的利润空间就此相对确定性地打开，也拉动了上游资源品价格上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据中国汽车流通协会数据，2025年11月国内新能源乘用车零售渗透率增长至59.3%，较去年同期提升7个百分点。在2025年12月第一周，这一数字更是首次突破60%达62.2%，新能源汽车已成为大多消费者的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">王传福在2016年论坛上还表示，其实很多新生事物的发展，比如像平板电视代替显像管电视、数码代替胶卷，有时候1%需要10年甚至更长的时间。但是到了1%就认为拐点已经出现，从1%—10%不需要10年，仅仅5年就够了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">新能源汽车的替代率目前已经接近10%，未来是10%到100%的市场空间。不只是宁德时代、比亚迪这样的企业看到了机会，就连万华化学这样的传统企业也在布局电池行业，带动了电池行业上游资源品的价格上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资是一个“优中选优”的过程。翟敬勇认为，投资需要突破心中的“魔障”，不能躺在功劳簿上一劳永逸，价值投资就是“寻找伟大的企业，坚持好股好价”，当好的机会来临时一定要重仓持有，而非浅尝辄止。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n涨价，涨价！新能源替代潮来袭，下一个“苹果级”回报就在眼前？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-11 08:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>2025年以来，铜涨价、锂涨价，镍钴涨价，铝涨价，甚至连硫磺也在涨价，这显然不是单纯的经济复苏或货币现象所致，因为水泥、玻璃、钢铁等其他资源品行情依然在底部盘整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“春江水暖鸭先知”，榕树投资翟敬勇对新能源行业的跟踪长达10年。他感受到的是一轮由于新能源行业需求爆发而导致的资源品涨价超级周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福也曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实，而新能源龙头企业也或将迎来高利润和高股东回报阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇是一位自下而上的投资者，他总是在调研的路上，过去近30年的时间跑了500多家上市公司。2015年以来，翟敬勇的调研重心非常自然地从万华化学、贵州茅台等传统经济龙头公司身上，转向了宁德时代、阳光电源等新能源公司身上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇近期在接受券商中国记者采访时认为，新能源汽车销量国内乘用车渗透率今年已经接近60%，对于投资者来说，业绩大爆发的新能源龙头企业已经迎来高股东回报时刻，这一行业从十年之前的负债率偏高、估值高企等“难投”阶段，变为高利润、高现金流、低负债率、低估值、高股东回报的“甜蜜”阶段，类似巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司或段永平在2011年买入苹果公司的阶段。</p><h2 id=\"id_2912409282\">相似的逻辑或在上演？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇早在两年前就重仓多家新能源龙头企业，在他看来，这些企业在其买入之时的估值仅有5到8倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在2024年初，某新能源电池龙头企业股价最低为140元/股，市值为5800亿元。翟敬勇计算认为，这家公司2025年的账面利润大概在700亿元，如果将质保金和加速折旧的利润加回利润总额，那么这家企业的年利润大概在1000亿元，这是因为该公司每年提取的100多亿的质保金动用的概率非常小，而该公司的折旧年限仅为3年，远远低于同行业8年的平均折旧年限。按照当时的市值来算，该公司的实际估值仅为6倍左右。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇认为，价值投资的核心是不会变的，即“买股票就是买公司，用4毛钱的东西买1块钱的东西”，因此便宜就是硬道理，无论是当下买新能源龙头企业，还是段永平2011年买苹果公司，亦或是巴菲特2015年买苹果公司，都是基于同样的道理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果在2006年下半年，推出第一款iPhone 1，从那个时候，市场开始慢慢接受智能手机。但是，苹果公司的利润率并没有上来，在那个时候展现的是一个高PE估值。段永平是在2011年开始买入苹果公司的，那个时候苹果市值约3000亿美元，苹果公司账上有1000亿美元的现金，那个时候苹果的年利润不到200亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在2011年时，段永平认为，苹果未来5年左右盈利大概率会涨很多，年利润至少会到达500亿美元，那就相当于用2000亿美元左右市值买个目前每年赚接近200亿美元，未来5年左右会赚到年赚500亿美元以上的公司，而且往后还会继续很好。段永平说，如果有这个结论，买苹果不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的机会成本就可以决定了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年元旦，段永平晒出了他所管理的一个账户。该账户持仓全部是苹果公司，最早的一笔是2011年11月18日买入，耗资180.26万美元，截至2025年12月31日，盈利3392.08万美元，总回报1881.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇说，当前阶段买入新能源龙头企业，类似2011年买入苹果公司，彼时智能手机的保有率正开始从10%上升到100%。智能手机在2011年时不到中国市场手机保有量的10%，而现在新能源汽车的保有量也不到传统汽车保有量的10%。现在投新能源龙头企业，正类似2011年段永平买入苹果公司或者巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇认为，随着智能手机的大规模普及，苹果公司赚得盆满钵满，段永平买入苹果公司之时，苹果公司的市值仅为3000亿美元，而此后的10年时间中，苹果公司仅用分红加回购的方式就为股东派发超过1万亿美元，未来随着新能源汽车保有量从10%上升到100%，新能源龙头公司也必将超预期地回报股东。</p><h2 id=\"id_1289073398\">新能源行业的爆发推动上游资源品涨价</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇对新能源行业的上游资源品公司进行了布局，他认为国内汽车保有量为3.53亿辆，而‌全国新能源汽车保有量为3140万辆‌，新能源汽车目前占比不到10%，未来十年的大趋势是新能源汽车几乎全部替代传统汽车，这一趋势与2011年智能手机替代功能性手机一样，龙头企业的利润空间就此相对确定性地打开，也拉动了上游资源品价格上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据中国汽车流通协会数据，2025年11月国内新能源乘用车零售渗透率增长至59.3%，较去年同期提升7个百分点。在2025年12月第一周，这一数字更是首次突破60%达62.2%，新能源汽车已成为大多消费者的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">王传福在2016年论坛上还表示，其实很多新生事物的发展，比如像平板电视代替显像管电视、数码代替胶卷，有时候1%需要10年甚至更长的时间。但是到了1%就认为拐点已经出现，从1%—10%不需要10年，仅仅5年就够了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">新能源汽车的替代率目前已经接近10%，未来是10%到100%的市场空间。不只是宁德时代、比亚迪这样的企业看到了机会，就连万华化学这样的传统企业也在布局电池行业，带动了电池行业上游资源品的价格上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资是一个“优中选优”的过程。翟敬勇认为，投资需要突破心中的“魔障”，不能躺在功劳簿上一劳永逸，价值投资就是“寻找伟大的企业，坚持好股好价”，当好的机会来临时一定要重仓持有，而非浅尝辄止。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a530a2a17bc301499c9e286759c5657e","relate_stocks":{"300274":"阳光电源","300750":"宁德时代","03750":"宁德时代"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199939577","content_text":"2025年以来，铜涨价、锂涨价，镍钴涨价，铝涨价，甚至连硫磺也在涨价，这显然不是单纯的经济复苏或货币现象所致，因为水泥、玻璃、钢铁等其他资源品行情依然在底部盘整。“春江水暖鸭先知”，榕树投资翟敬勇对新能源行业的跟踪长达10年。他感受到的是一轮由于新能源行业需求爆发而导致的资源品涨价超级周期。2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福也曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实，而新能源龙头企业也或将迎来高利润和高股东回报阶段。翟敬勇是一位自下而上的投资者，他总是在调研的路上，过去近30年的时间跑了500多家上市公司。2015年以来，翟敬勇的调研重心非常自然地从万华化学、贵州茅台等传统经济龙头公司身上，转向了宁德时代、阳光电源等新能源公司身上。翟敬勇近期在接受券商中国记者采访时认为，新能源汽车销量国内乘用车渗透率今年已经接近60%，对于投资者来说，业绩大爆发的新能源龙头企业已经迎来高股东回报时刻，这一行业从十年之前的负债率偏高、估值高企等“难投”阶段，变为高利润、高现金流、低负债率、低估值、高股东回报的“甜蜜”阶段，类似巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司或段永平在2011年买入苹果公司的阶段。相似的逻辑或在上演？翟敬勇早在两年前就重仓多家新能源龙头企业，在他看来，这些企业在其买入之时的估值仅有5到8倍。在2024年初，某新能源电池龙头企业股价最低为140元/股，市值为5800亿元。翟敬勇计算认为，这家公司2025年的账面利润大概在700亿元，如果将质保金和加速折旧的利润加回利润总额，那么这家企业的年利润大概在1000亿元，这是因为该公司每年提取的100多亿的质保金动用的概率非常小，而该公司的折旧年限仅为3年，远远低于同行业8年的平均折旧年限。按照当时的市值来算，该公司的实际估值仅为6倍左右。翟敬勇认为，价值投资的核心是不会变的，即“买股票就是买公司，用4毛钱的东西买1块钱的东西”，因此便宜就是硬道理，无论是当下买新能源龙头企业，还是段永平2011年买苹果公司，亦或是巴菲特2015年买苹果公司，都是基于同样的道理。苹果在2006年下半年，推出第一款iPhone 1，从那个时候，市场开始慢慢接受智能手机。但是，苹果公司的利润率并没有上来，在那个时候展现的是一个高PE估值。段永平是在2011年开始买入苹果公司的，那个时候苹果市值约3000亿美元，苹果公司账上有1000亿美元的现金，那个时候苹果的年利润不到200亿美元。在2011年时，段永平认为，苹果未来5年左右盈利大概率会涨很多，年利润至少会到达500亿美元，那就相当于用2000亿美元左右市值买个目前每年赚接近200亿美元，未来5年左右会赚到年赚500亿美元以上的公司，而且往后还会继续很好。段永平说，如果有这个结论，买苹果不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的机会成本就可以决定了。2026年元旦，段永平晒出了他所管理的一个账户。该账户持仓全部是苹果公司，最早的一笔是2011年11月18日买入，耗资180.26万美元，截至2025年12月31日，盈利3392.08万美元，总回报1881.8%。翟敬勇说，当前阶段买入新能源龙头企业，类似2011年买入苹果公司，彼时智能手机的保有率正开始从10%上升到100%。智能手机在2011年时不到中国市场手机保有量的10%，而现在新能源汽车的保有量也不到传统汽车保有量的10%。现在投新能源龙头企业，正类似2011年段永平买入苹果公司或者巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司。翟敬勇认为，随着智能手机的大规模普及，苹果公司赚得盆满钵满，段永平买入苹果公司之时，苹果公司的市值仅为3000亿美元，而此后的10年时间中，苹果公司仅用分红加回购的方式就为股东派发超过1万亿美元，未来随着新能源汽车保有量从10%上升到100%，新能源龙头公司也必将超预期地回报股东。新能源行业的爆发推动上游资源品涨价2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实。翟敬勇对新能源行业的上游资源品公司进行了布局，他认为国内汽车保有量为3.53亿辆，而‌全国新能源汽车保有量为3140万辆‌，新能源汽车目前占比不到10%，未来十年的大趋势是新能源汽车几乎全部替代传统汽车，这一趋势与2011年智能手机替代功能性手机一样，龙头企业的利润空间就此相对确定性地打开，也拉动了上游资源品价格上涨。据中国汽车流通协会数据，2025年11月国内新能源乘用车零售渗透率增长至59.3%，较去年同期提升7个百分点。在2025年12月第一周，这一数字更是首次突破60%达62.2%，新能源汽车已成为大多消费者的选择。王传福在2016年论坛上还表示，其实很多新生事物的发展，比如像平板电视代替显像管电视、数码代替胶卷，有时候1%需要10年甚至更长的时间。但是到了1%就认为拐点已经出现，从1%—10%不需要10年，仅仅5年就够了。新能源汽车的替代率目前已经接近10%，未来是10%到100%的市场空间。不只是宁德时代、比亚迪这样的企业看到了机会，就连万华化学这样的传统企业也在布局电池行业，带动了电池行业上游资源品的价格上涨。投资是一个“优中选优”的过程。翟敬勇认为，投资需要突破心中的“魔障”，不能躺在功劳簿上一劳永逸，价值投资就是“寻找伟大的企业，坚持好股好价”，当好的机会来临时一定要重仓持有，而非浅尝辄止。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300274":2,"300750":2,"03750":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572071041496714","authorId":"3572071041496714","name":"alexande007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7204136f9322395ab13073bd18d7ef40","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572071041496714","idStr":"3572071041496714"},"content":"反着听就对了，说明新能源汽车倒闭潮来袭","text":"反着听就对了，说明新能源汽车倒闭潮来袭","html":"反着听就对了，说明新能源汽车倒闭潮来袭"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520353408127624,"gmtCreate":1768022614651,"gmtModify":1768022618744,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"发家致富就靠小米了","listText":"发家致富就靠小米了","text":"发家致富就靠小米了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520353408127624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519950829815192,"gmtCreate":1767962385249,"gmtModify":1767963878345,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090487371938690","idStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03986\">$兆易创新(03986)$</a> 牛逼&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03986\">$兆易创新(03986)$</a> 牛逼&nbsp;","text":"$兆易创新(03986)$ 牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519950829815192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":533967812007432,"gmtCreate":1771384187171,"gmtModify":1771384189717,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090487371938690","authorIdStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"段20年前的相貌挺好的","listText":"段20年前的相貌挺好的","text":"段20年前的相貌挺好的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533967812007432","repostId":"2612049231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612049231","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771379884,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612049231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 09:58","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612049231","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持幅度最大的是英伟达，增持幅度第二大的股票是伯克希尔哈撒韦；同时，段永平也减持了五只股票，减持幅度最大的是苹果。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392545a009bcf09f2c078f8e9d1b3126\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位曾以重仓网易、茅台、苹果著称的价值投资大佬，正在用真金白银完成对人工智能时代的深度建仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcdb4f5cee5eaa6c20ba310989a7845\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_790947635\">“狂加”英伟达、“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>文件显示，段永平在Q4一口气增持了663.93万股英伟达，持仓数量激增1110.62%</strong>，总持股数达到723.71万股，持仓市值跃升至13.5亿美元，将英伟达直接推升至其组合的第三大重仓股（占比7.72%）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在重注“卖水人”英伟达之外，段永平还开仓了三家“新面孔”。虽然合计仓位占比仅约0.28%，但选股逻辑极为老辣，精准覆盖了AI产业链的算力、连接与应用三个关键节点：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CoreWeave：算力租赁的“包租公”</strong><br/>新进29.99万股。在所有巨头都在争抢GPU的当下，CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户。这是一家典型的“卖铲子”公司，虽然面临重资产、高折旧的财务压力，但在算力紧缺周期内拥有极强的议价权。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Credo Technology ：数据中心的“高速公路”</strong><br/>新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”</strong><br/>新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1651169234\">减持苹果，增持伯克希尔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。<strong>然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。</strong>这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，作为防御性资产的<strong>伯克希尔B </strong>获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，段永平还增持了<strong>谷歌、拼多多</strong>，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头<strong>阿斯麦</strong>（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n段永平试水“AI交易”：卖苹果加仓英伟达，“新入”CoreWeave、Credo和Tempus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 09:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CoreWeave专门搭建高性能GPU集群，把算力租给AI公司和企业客户；如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管，跟AI服务器迭代高度绑定；Tempus则致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。在大幅减持第一大重仓股苹果的同时，知名投资人段永平在Q4将英伟达仓位狂拉逾11倍，并轻仓“试水”三家极具代表性的AI垂直领域公司。数据显示，段永平Q4共增持了六只股票，其中增持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765830\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f8fa40fbf2bafa712e6587729f3ea91","relate_stocks":{"LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","LU1923622291.USD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A USD","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) 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：数据中心的“高速公路”新进14.13万股。如果说GPU是心脏，Credo提供的高速互联芯片和光模块就是血管。AI服务器集群对数据传输速度要求极高，段永平此举意在押注数据中心升级带来的确定性增量，这是一种与AI服务器迭代高度绑定的“伴生性投资”。Tempus AI：AI医疗的“落地实验”新进11万股。不同于前两者的硬件属性，Tempus致力于将AI应用于精准医疗，尤其是肿瘤领域。这是段永平在AI垂直应用层的尝试。不过，医疗行业监管严、周期长，虽然这代表了AI从“算力”向“生产力”转化的终极方向，但盈利能力仍在验证阶段，更像是一场耐力赛。减持苹果，增持伯克希尔在进攻AI的同时，段永平也对传统的“压舱石”进行了显著的再平衡。Q4，苹果依然是其头号重仓股，持仓市值高达87.97亿美元，占比50.3%。然而，Q4期间他减持了247.06万股苹果，减持幅度达7.09%。这一动作可能源于对单一标的持仓过重的风险控制，也可能是为了腾挪资金加码AI。与此同时，作为防御性资产的伯克希尔B 获得了大幅增持。段永平买入近198.5万股，增持幅度达38.24%，使其稳居第二大重仓股（占比20.63%）。这种“左手科技成长，右手价值防御”的结构，依然是其投资组合的基石。此外，段永平还增持了谷歌、拼多多，并大幅减持了光刻机巨头阿斯麦（减持幅度87.63%），显示出他对不同科技巨头未来增长潜力的判断出现了分化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"CRWD":1.87,"NVDG":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"AAPB":0.6,"CORD":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDA":1.95,"MACW.SI":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"AAPL":1.91,"AAPD":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"CRWG":0.6,"CRWU":0.6,"CWVX":0.6,"NVD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533946027958480,"gmtCreate":1771378887400,"gmtModify":1771379354300,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090487371938690","authorIdStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"买，然后放消息，然后吹牛逼","listText":"买，然后放消息，然后吹牛逼","text":"买，然后放消息，然后吹牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533946027958480","repostId":"2612496724","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612496724","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1771367111,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612496724?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-18 06:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特“收山之作”：Q4再抛苹果美银，猛砍亚马逊，首次新进纽约时报","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612496724","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伯克希尔Q4连续第三季抛苹果，苹果持仓市值减少28亿美元，仍是头号重仓股，美银持仓一年半来减持50%，仍是第三代重仓股；亚马逊持股环比减少230万股、降幅77%；新进纽约时报超过506万股，市值3.52亿美元。该报盘后一度涨超10%。更新中","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>伯克希尔连续三季抛苹果，Q4苹果持仓市值减少28亿美元，仍是头号重仓股；美银持股一年半来减少50%，仍是第三大重仓股；亚马逊持股环比减少230万股、降幅77%；新进纽约时报超过506万股，市值3.52亿美元；增持雪佛龙12.3亿美元、安达保险持股数增逾9%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在“股神”巴菲特卸任CEO前最后一个季度继续调整科技巨头持仓，减持多只重仓股的同时，首次建仓传统媒体纽约时报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间2月17日周二美股盘后，递交美国证监会（SEC）的13F文件披露，伯克希尔2025年第四季度大幅削减所持亚马逊股份（AMZN）超过77%，并且连续第三个季度减持苹果（AAPL）。伯克希尔还继续抛售美国银行（BAC），对该行的持股比例降至略低于7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约时报（NYT）是伯克希尔四季度唯一新进的个股，当季建仓超过506万股，市值约3.52亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周二公布的是巴菲特执掌伯克希尔60年的最后一份13F持仓报告，巴菲特的继任者Greg Abel已于2026年1月1日正式接任CEO。伯克希尔将于2月28日公布全年业绩，届时将发布Abel作为CEO的首封致股东信。</p><h2 id=\"55c41946\">持续减持苹果与美银</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据13F文件，伯克希尔四季度抛售苹果超过1029万股，持股数环比三季度减少4.3%，季末苹果持仓市值环比减少约28亿美元，持仓在伯克希尔投资组合中的占比从三季度的22.69%降至22.60%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以环比减少的市值看，苹果是伯克希尔四季度减持最多的个股，但减持股份还不及前一季。三季度伯克希尔减持苹果约4179万股，持股数环比减少逾14.9%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管持续减持，到四季度末，苹果仍是伯克希尔的头号重仓股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国银行是又一持续被伯克希尔减持的重仓股。四季度伯克希尔卖出将近5080万股美银，持股数环比减少8.9%，持仓占比降至6.89%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到四季度末，美银仍是伯克希尔的第三大重仓股。但伯克希尔的美银持股已经从2024年中的10.3亿股降至5.17亿股，相当于过去一年半来，该行已被减持约50%。</p><h2 id=\"cd3cd5ca\">亚马逊持股猛降77%</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">按持仓占比变动计算，亚马逊是伯克希尔四季度减持幅度最大的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">13F文件显示，四季度亚马逊在伯克希尔投资组合中的占比从三季度的0.82%骤降至0.19%，环比降幅达0.63个百分点，持股数量减少至约230万股，环比下降逾77.2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔于2019年首次买入亚马逊。巴菲特当时表示，虽然他历来对科技股持谨慎态度，但没有更早买入这家在线零售巨头的股票是“愚蠢的”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚马逊股价进入2026年以来已累跌约11%，遭遇20年来最大同期跌幅。本周二，亚马逊刚刚结束连跌九个交易日的2006年以来最长连跌日。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至上周五的九个交易日内，亚马逊市值合计蒸发超4500亿美元，体现了投资者对亚马逊庞大AI相关支出合理性的质疑。亚马逊本月5日公布四季度财报时透露，计划2026年资本支出2000亿美元，年度投入规模超过其他任一科技巨头。</p><h2 id=\"bba77103\">建仓纽约时报</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约时报是伯克希尔四季度唯一新建仓的个股。当季伯克希尔买入506.7万股，市值超过3.52亿美元，持有纽约时报约3.1%的股份，持仓在伯克希尔投资组合中位列第30位，占比0.13%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔曾长期持有媒体股资产，但在2020年以1.4亿美元将旗下报纸业务出售给Lee Enterprises。巴菲特曾担任华盛顿邮报最大外部股东和董事会成员。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">纽约时报股价近期表现强劲，今年以来上涨6%，目前接近历史高点74.59美元，过去12个月累计涨幅达50%。</p><h2 id=\"d7874ebc\">增持雪佛龙和安达保险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔四季度较大幅增持了石油巨头雪佛龙（CVX）和瑞士安达保险（Chubb）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，伯克希尔增持安达保险（CB）将近292万股，持股数环比增长9.3%，持股在投资组合中占比从三季度的3.31%升至3.90%，环比提高0.59个百分点。以持仓占比升幅看，安达保险是四季度增持最多的个股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">四季度伯克希尔买入雪佛龙逾809万股，持股数环比增长6.6%，持股占比环比增加0.15个百分点至7.24%，市值则环比增加约12.3亿美元。以持仓市值的增幅看，雪佛龙则是四季度增持之最。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔四季度还增持了36.8万股达美乐披萨（DPZ），持股数环比增长12.3%，持仓增至约14亿美元，排在第20位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯克希尔对另一必需消费品类股卡夫亨氏的持仓四季度保持不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Abel近期表示，他支持卡夫亨氏暂停拆分调味品和食品杂货业务的决定。卡夫亨氏在1月的监管文件中披露，最大股东伯克希尔可能出售其持有的近全部3.256亿股。巴菲特去年曾对华尔街日报表示，伯克希尔不支持该拆分计划。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据SEC规定，管理至少1亿美元美国股票的机构投资者必须在每个季度结束后45天内提交13F文件。尽管这些文件提供的是过时的持仓信息，但伯克希尔的披露仍被市场参与者广泛解读，以寻求对该公司投资决策的洞察。</p><h2 id=\"id_507732878\">十大重仓股仍是“老面孔”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">到四季度末，以持仓市值计，伯克希尔的十大重仓股都是前一季的“老面孔”，排名大多和三季度相同，只有穆迪和西方石油的排名对换。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">和三季度一样，四季度这些重仓股之中也只有四只被调整持仓，分别是苹果、美国运通被减持，雪佛龙、安达保险被增持。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三季度首次跻身前十的谷歌母公司Alphabet依然排在第十位。三季度被Alphabet挤出前十的肾脏透析服务商德维特（DVA）四季度仍位列第11。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">四季度伯克希尔的十大重仓股分别是：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>苹果（AAPL）</p></li><li><p>美国运通（AXP）</p></li><li><p>美银（BAC）</p></li><li><p>可口可乐（KO）</p></li><li><p>雪佛龙（CVX）</p></li><li><p>穆迪（MCO），排名从第七升至第六。</p></li><li><p>西方石油（OXY），排名从第六降至第七。</p></li><li><p>瑞士安达保险（Chubb）（CB）。</p></li><li><p>卡夫亨氏（KHC）。</p></li><li><p>Alphabet（GOOGL）</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afc19aa8909429c6e0e54a471a917e7c\" tg-width=\"1643\" tg-height=\"648\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特“收山之作”：Q4再抛苹果美银，猛砍亚马逊，首次新进纽约时报</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特“收山之作”：Q4再抛苹果美银，猛砍亚马逊，首次新进纽约时报\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-18 06:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765821><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>伯克希尔连续三季抛苹果，Q4苹果持仓市值减少28亿美元，仍是头号重仓股；美银持股一年半来减少50%，仍是第三大重仓股；亚马逊持股环比减少230万股、降幅77%；新进纽约时报超过506万股，市值3.52亿美元；增持雪佛龙12.3亿美元、安达保险持股数增逾9%。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在“股神”巴菲特卸任CEO前最后一个季度继续调整科技巨头持仓，减持多只重仓股的同时，首次建仓传统媒体纽约时报。美东时间2月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765821\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) 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INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765821","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2612496724","content_text":"伯克希尔连续三季抛苹果，Q4苹果持仓市值减少28亿美元，仍是头号重仓股；美银持股一年半来减少50%，仍是第三大重仓股；亚马逊持股环比减少230万股、降幅77%；新进纽约时报超过506万股，市值3.52亿美元；增持雪佛龙12.3亿美元、安达保险持股数增逾9%。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在“股神”巴菲特卸任CEO前最后一个季度继续调整科技巨头持仓，减持多只重仓股的同时，首次建仓传统媒体纽约时报。美东时间2月17日周二美股盘后，递交美国证监会（SEC）的13F文件披露，伯克希尔2025年第四季度大幅削减所持亚马逊股份（AMZN）超过77%，并且连续第三个季度减持苹果（AAPL）。伯克希尔还继续抛售美国银行（BAC），对该行的持股比例降至略低于7%。纽约时报（NYT）是伯克希尔四季度唯一新进的个股，当季建仓超过506万股，市值约3.52亿美元。本周二公布的是巴菲特执掌伯克希尔60年的最后一份13F持仓报告，巴菲特的继任者Greg Abel已于2026年1月1日正式接任CEO。伯克希尔将于2月28日公布全年业绩，届时将发布Abel作为CEO的首封致股东信。持续减持苹果与美银据13F文件，伯克希尔四季度抛售苹果超过1029万股，持股数环比三季度减少4.3%，季末苹果持仓市值环比减少约28亿美元，持仓在伯克希尔投资组合中的占比从三季度的22.69%降至22.60%。以环比减少的市值看，苹果是伯克希尔四季度减持最多的个股，但减持股份还不及前一季。三季度伯克希尔减持苹果约4179万股，持股数环比减少逾14.9%。尽管持续减持，到四季度末，苹果仍是伯克希尔的头号重仓股。美国银行是又一持续被伯克希尔减持的重仓股。四季度伯克希尔卖出将近5080万股美银，持股数环比减少8.9%，持仓占比降至6.89%。到四季度末，美银仍是伯克希尔的第三大重仓股。但伯克希尔的美银持股已经从2024年中的10.3亿股降至5.17亿股，相当于过去一年半来，该行已被减持约50%。亚马逊持股猛降77%按持仓占比变动计算，亚马逊是伯克希尔四季度减持幅度最大的个股。13F文件显示，四季度亚马逊在伯克希尔投资组合中的占比从三季度的0.82%骤降至0.19%，环比降幅达0.63个百分点，持股数量减少至约230万股，环比下降逾77.2%。伯克希尔于2019年首次买入亚马逊。巴菲特当时表示，虽然他历来对科技股持谨慎态度，但没有更早买入这家在线零售巨头的股票是“愚蠢的”。亚马逊股价进入2026年以来已累跌约11%，遭遇20年来最大同期跌幅。本周二，亚马逊刚刚结束连跌九个交易日的2006年以来最长连跌日。截至上周五的九个交易日内，亚马逊市值合计蒸发超4500亿美元，体现了投资者对亚马逊庞大AI相关支出合理性的质疑。亚马逊本月5日公布四季度财报时透露，计划2026年资本支出2000亿美元，年度投入规模超过其他任一科技巨头。建仓纽约时报纽约时报是伯克希尔四季度唯一新建仓的个股。当季伯克希尔买入506.7万股，市值超过3.52亿美元，持有纽约时报约3.1%的股份，持仓在伯克希尔投资组合中位列第30位，占比0.13%。伯克希尔曾长期持有媒体股资产，但在2020年以1.4亿美元将旗下报纸业务出售给Lee Enterprises。巴菲特曾担任华盛顿邮报最大外部股东和董事会成员。纽约时报股价近期表现强劲，今年以来上涨6%，目前接近历史高点74.59美元，过去12个月累计涨幅达50%。增持雪佛龙和安达保险伯克希尔四季度较大幅增持了石油巨头雪佛龙（CVX）和瑞士安达保险（Chubb）。其中，伯克希尔增持安达保险（CB）将近292万股，持股数环比增长9.3%，持股在投资组合中占比从三季度的3.31%升至3.90%，环比提高0.59个百分点。以持仓占比升幅看，安达保险是四季度增持最多的个股。四季度伯克希尔买入雪佛龙逾809万股，持股数环比增长6.6%，持股占比环比增加0.15个百分点至7.24%，市值则环比增加约12.3亿美元。以持仓市值的增幅看，雪佛龙则是四季度增持之最。伯克希尔四季度还增持了36.8万股达美乐披萨（DPZ），持股数环比增长12.3%，持仓增至约14亿美元，排在第20位。伯克希尔对另一必需消费品类股卡夫亨氏的持仓四季度保持不变。Abel近期表示，他支持卡夫亨氏暂停拆分调味品和食品杂货业务的决定。卡夫亨氏在1月的监管文件中披露，最大股东伯克希尔可能出售其持有的近全部3.256亿股。巴菲特去年曾对华尔街日报表示，伯克希尔不支持该拆分计划。根据SEC规定，管理至少1亿美元美国股票的机构投资者必须在每个季度结束后45天内提交13F文件。尽管这些文件提供的是过时的持仓信息，但伯克希尔的披露仍被市场参与者广泛解读，以寻求对该公司投资决策的洞察。十大重仓股仍是“老面孔”到四季度末，以持仓市值计，伯克希尔的十大重仓股都是前一季的“老面孔”，排名大多和三季度相同，只有穆迪和西方石油的排名对换。和三季度一样，四季度这些重仓股之中也只有四只被调整持仓，分别是苹果、美国运通被减持，雪佛龙、安达保险被增持。三季度首次跻身前十的谷歌母公司Alphabet依然排在第十位。三季度被Alphabet挤出前十的肾脏透析服务商德维特（DVA）四季度仍位列第11。四季度伯克希尔的十大重仓股分别是：苹果（AAPL）美国运通（AXP）美银（BAC）可口可乐（KO）雪佛龙（CVX）穆迪（MCO），排名从第七升至第六。西方石油（OXY），排名从第六降至第七。瑞士安达保险（Chubb）（CB）。卡夫亨氏（KHC）。Alphabet（GOOGL）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":2,"AMZN":2,"NYT":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533943769592968,"gmtCreate":1771378254055,"gmtModify":1771379354034,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090487371938690","authorIdStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"狗","listText":"狗","text":"狗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533943769592968","repostId":"2612468012","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612468012","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1771340546,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612468012?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-17 23:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"股价回调不合理！知名科技分析师Dan Ives力挺苹果，维持“跑赢大盘”评级","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612468012","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，苹果公司周二成为华尔街关注焦点。韦德布什证券发布最新研报指出，近期苹果股价的回调“并不合理”，并认为2026年将是苹果真正树立人工智能旗帜的关键一年。韦德布什分析师、科技板块知名多头Dan Ives领衔的研究团队在报告中表示，过去几周苹果股价走弱，主要源于市场担忧部分备受期待的AI功能，尤其是与Siri相关的AI升级，可能出现延迟。基于上述判断，韦德布什维持对苹果的“跑赢大盘”评级，并给予350美元的目标价。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2月17日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司周二成为华尔街关注焦点。韦德布什证券发布最新研报指出，近期苹果股价的回调“并不合理”，并认为2026年将是苹果真正树立人工智能(AI)旗帜的关键一年。</p><p>韦德布什分析师、科技板块知名多头Dan Ives领衔的研究团队在报告中表示，过去几周苹果股价走弱，主要源于市场担忧部分备受期待的AI功能，尤其是与Siri相关的AI升级，可能出现延迟。在过去一年里，投资者对苹果在AI战略上的“反复拉锯”已显得有些疲惫。不过，分析师认为，这种担忧被明显放大了。</p><p>报告指出，苹果当前的核心任务并非“抢时间点”，而是把AI战略“一次性做对”。从目前进展看，苹果仍有望在今年夏季前后推出其更先进的AI功能，这些功能可能分阶段出现在iOS 26.4、iOS 26.5版本中，并最终在9月发布的iOS 27中全面落地。分析师强调，对首席执行官库克和苹果而言，真正的重头戏在于为开发者和消费者构建一个完整、可持续的AI平台，而这一布局将在2026年全面开花结果。</p><p>基于上述判断，韦德布什维持对苹果的“跑赢大盘”评级，并给予350美元的目标价。</p><p>在更深入的分析中，韦德布什也承认，市场对苹果AI前景“心有余悸”并非毫无依据。过去一年，苹果在AI领域的推进节奏和对外沟通确实多次引发质疑。但分析师指出，近期的一系列进展正在扭转这一局面，包括与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>(GOOG.US,GOOGL.US)达成的合作协议，以及引入新的外部高管力量，都显示出苹果管理层已清楚认识到，全新Siri必须成功，且不容再犯错误。</p><p>韦德布什进一步表示，去年的AI“失误”反而为2026年Siri AI平台的正式亮相创造了更大的想象空间。当前华尔街明显低估了这一平台对苹果长期叙事的意义。分析师直言，市场“房间里的大象”依旧是苹果尚未完全显现的AI战略，但考虑到苹果拥有全球最大的消费级生态系统，约25亿台活跃iOS设备和15亿部iPhone，现在正是苹果全面加速AI布局的最佳时机。</p><p>在商业化层面，韦德布什认为，随着AI战略在2026年逐步兑现，其变现潜力有望在未来数年为苹果股价贡献每股75至100美元的增量价值。分析师总结称，一旦AI故事真正展开，市场对苹果的重新定价空间仍然相当可观。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股价回调不合理！知名科技分析师Dan Ives力挺苹果，维持“跑赢大盘”评级\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-17 23:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405816.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2月17日，苹果公司周二成为华尔街关注焦点。韦德布什证券发布最新研报指出，近期苹果股价的回调“并不合理”，并认为2026年将是苹果真正树立人工智能(AI)旗帜的关键一年。韦德布什分析师、科技板块知名多头Dan Ives领衔的研究团队在报告中表示，过去几周苹果股价走弱，主要源于市场担忧部分备受期待的AI功能，尤其是与Siri相关的AI升级，可能出现延迟。在过去一年里，投资者对苹果在AI战略上的“反复...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405816.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8bf4565bc4c9ea6e0ff587a10365663","relate_stocks":{"LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1989771016.USD":"东方汇理环球老龄化投资基金 A2 Acc","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1935043536.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY 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27中全面落地。分析师强调，对首席执行官库克和苹果而言，真正的重头戏在于为开发者和消费者构建一个完整、可持续的AI平台，而这一布局将在2026年全面开花结果。基于上述判断，韦德布什维持对苹果的“跑赢大盘”评级，并给予350美元的目标价。在更深入的分析中，韦德布什也承认，市场对苹果AI前景“心有余悸”并非毫无依据。过去一年，苹果在AI领域的推进节奏和对外沟通确实多次引发质疑。但分析师指出，近期的一系列进展正在扭转这一局面，包括与谷歌(GOOG.US,GOOGL.US)达成的合作协议，以及引入新的外部高管力量，都显示出苹果管理层已清楚认识到，全新Siri必须成功，且不容再犯错误。韦德布什进一步表示，去年的AI“失误”反而为2026年Siri 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16:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"利好来了！高盛：建议高配中国股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196675860","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月5日，高盛发布题为《中国2026年展望：探索新动能》的宏观报告。报告称，2026年建议高配中国股票。高盛股票策略团队此前在亚太范围内建议高配A股和港股，预计2026年和2027年中国股市将每年上涨15%至20%，分别由14%和12%的盈利增长以及约10%的估值向上重估所支撑。报告分析，2026年，中国出口存在结构性上行空间；投资在政策支持下有望反弹；政策对服务消费更加重视，并鼓励增加假期和带薪休假。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月5日，高盛发布题为《中国2026年展望：探索新动能》的报告。报告称，2026年建议高配中国股票。</p><p>高盛预计2026年和2027年中国股票将每年上涨15%至20%，企业盈利在2026年与2027年将分别增长14%和12%，并有望叠加约10%的估值修复潜力。盈利增长加速的驱动因素包括人工智能应用、“出海”趋势和“反内卷”政策。</p><p>同时，高盛也提到，当前估值相对国际可比市场存在折价，而中国资产对国际与本土投资者具备一定分散化价值，可能促进资金进一步进入市场。</p><p>高盛指出，近年来中国经济发生了重大变化。预计中国实际出口量增速在2025年达到约8%之后，2026年将增长5%。中国经常账户顺差将从2025年占GDP的3.6%扩大至2026年的4.2%。</p><p>高盛认为，从外部环境看，中国出口仍存在结构性上行空间。随着全球产业链重构、中国制造业竞争力和高附加值产品占比提升，未来几年中国出口韧性有望保持，经常账户或将持续处于较为稳健的状态。</p><p>投资方面，按GDP支出法口径，高盛预计固定资本形成总额增速将从2025年的1.5%反弹至2026年的3.5%。财政扩张将重点支持高科技、城市更新及民生相关基础设施等领域。</p><p>消费方面，高盛预计2026年居民消费增速将放缓，但政府消费有望加速并抵消个人消费的疲弱。近期政策公告显示，消费品以旧换新“国补”计划将在2026年延续。考虑到政策支持方向与潜在的结构性上行空间，高盛认为服务消费增速将超过商品消费增速。</p><p>另外，高盛预测中国实际GDP增速将在2026年达到4.8%，这一数字高于4.5%的市场普遍预期。高盛指出，中国在出口展现出的结构性韧性以及预期中更为积极的政策宽松，将成为新一年的关键支撑。</p><p>“我们对2026年经济增长和通胀的预测均高于市场共识，背后的假设是2026年政策宽松力度加大，包括两次10个基点的降息和我们估算的广义财政赤字扩大1.2个百分点。这两项预测都比市场共识预测略偏鸽派。”高盛称。</p><p>在基准情形下，高盛预计2026年会有1次“降准+降息”组合：2026年一季度降准50个基点并降息10个基点，三季度再降息10个基点。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n利好来了！高盛：建议高配中国股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-05 16:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月5日，高盛发布题为《中国2026年展望：探索新动能》的报告。报告称，2026年建议高配中国股票。</p><p>高盛预计2026年和2027年中国股票将每年上涨15%至20%，企业盈利在2026年与2027年将分别增长14%和12%，并有望叠加约10%的估值修复潜力。盈利增长加速的驱动因素包括人工智能应用、“出海”趋势和“反内卷”政策。</p><p>同时，高盛也提到，当前估值相对国际可比市场存在折价，而中国资产对国际与本土投资者具备一定分散化价值，可能促进资金进一步进入市场。</p><p>高盛指出，近年来中国经济发生了重大变化。预计中国实际出口量增速在2025年达到约8%之后，2026年将增长5%。中国经常账户顺差将从2025年占GDP的3.6%扩大至2026年的4.2%。</p><p>高盛认为，从外部环境看，中国出口仍存在结构性上行空间。随着全球产业链重构、中国制造业竞争力和高附加值产品占比提升，未来几年中国出口韧性有望保持，经常账户或将持续处于较为稳健的状态。</p><p>投资方面，按GDP支出法口径，高盛预计固定资本形成总额增速将从2025年的1.5%反弹至2026年的3.5%。财政扩张将重点支持高科技、城市更新及民生相关基础设施等领域。</p><p>消费方面，高盛预计2026年居民消费增速将放缓，但政府消费有望加速并抵消个人消费的疲弱。近期政策公告显示，消费品以旧换新“国补”计划将在2026年延续。考虑到政策支持方向与潜在的结构性上行空间，高盛认为服务消费增速将超过商品消费增速。</p><p>另外，高盛预测中国实际GDP增速将在2026年达到4.8%，这一数字高于4.5%的市场普遍预期。高盛指出，中国在出口展现出的结构性韧性以及预期中更为积极的政策宽松，将成为新一年的关键支撑。</p><p>“我们对2026年经济增长和通胀的预测均高于市场共识，背后的假设是2026年政策宽松力度加大，包括两次10个基点的降息和我们估算的广义财政赤字扩大1.2个百分点。这两项预测都比市场共识预测略偏鸽派。”高盛称。</p><p>在基准情形下，高盛预计2026年会有1次“降准+降息”组合：2026年一季度降准50个基点并降息10个基点，三季度再降息10个基点。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196675860","content_text":"1月5日，高盛发布题为《中国2026年展望：探索新动能》的报告。报告称，2026年建议高配中国股票。高盛预计2026年和2027年中国股票将每年上涨15%至20%，企业盈利在2026年与2027年将分别增长14%和12%，并有望叠加约10%的估值修复潜力。盈利增长加速的驱动因素包括人工智能应用、“出海”趋势和“反内卷”政策。同时，高盛也提到，当前估值相对国际可比市场存在折价，而中国资产对国际与本土投资者具备一定分散化价值，可能促进资金进一步进入市场。高盛指出，近年来中国经济发生了重大变化。预计中国实际出口量增速在2025年达到约8%之后，2026年将增长5%。中国经常账户顺差将从2025年占GDP的3.6%扩大至2026年的4.2%。高盛认为，从外部环境看，中国出口仍存在结构性上行空间。随着全球产业链重构、中国制造业竞争力和高附加值产品占比提升，未来几年中国出口韧性有望保持，经常账户或将持续处于较为稳健的状态。投资方面，按GDP支出法口径，高盛预计固定资本形成总额增速将从2025年的1.5%反弹至2026年的3.5%。财政扩张将重点支持高科技、城市更新及民生相关基础设施等领域。消费方面，高盛预计2026年居民消费增速将放缓，但政府消费有望加速并抵消个人消费的疲弱。近期政策公告显示，消费品以旧换新“国补”计划将在2026年延续。考虑到政策支持方向与潜在的结构性上行空间，高盛认为服务消费增速将超过商品消费增速。另外，高盛预测中国实际GDP增速将在2026年达到4.8%，这一数字高于4.5%的市场普遍预期。高盛指出，中国在出口展现出的结构性韧性以及预期中更为积极的政策宽松，将成为新一年的关键支撑。“我们对2026年经济增长和通胀的预测均高于市场共识，背后的假设是2026年政策宽松力度加大，包括两次10个基点的降息和我们估算的广义财政赤字扩大1.2个百分点。这两项预测都比市场共识预测略偏鸽派。”高盛称。在基准情形下，高盛预计2026年会有1次“降准+降息”组合：2026年一季度降准50个基点并降息10个基点，三季度再降息10个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":2,"399006":2,"000001.SH":2,"HSTECH":2,"HSI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3468401218530340","authorId":"3468401218530340","name":"Flt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8c973727f5d5c4e4d0352cca858172","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3468401218530340","authorIdStr":"3468401218530340"},"content":"哈哈，伤的很深","text":"哈哈，伤的很深","html":"哈哈，伤的很深"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520488283293176,"gmtCreate":1768093668040,"gmtModify":1768093670164,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090487371938690","authorIdStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这些所谓的专家放出这些言论什么意思","listText":"这些所谓的专家放出这些言论什么意思","text":"这些所谓的专家放出这些言论什么意思","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520488283293176","repostId":"1199939577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199939577","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1768092201,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199939577?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-11 08:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"涨价，涨价！新能源替代潮来袭，下一个“苹果级”回报就在眼前？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199939577","media":"券商中国","summary":"10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实，而新能源龙头企业也或将迎来高利润和高股东回报阶段。现在投新能源龙头企业，正类似2011年段永平买入苹果公司或者巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司。据中国汽车流通协会数据，2025年11月国内新能源乘用车零售渗透率增长至59.3%，较去年同期提升7个百分点。在2025年12月第一周，这一数字更是首次突破60%达62.2%，新能源汽车已成为大多消费者的选择。新能源汽车的替代率目前已经接近10%，未来是10%到100%的市场空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2025年以来，铜涨价、锂涨价，镍钴涨价，铝涨价，甚至连硫磺也在涨价，这显然不是单纯的经济复苏或货币现象所致，因为水泥、玻璃、钢铁等其他资源品行情依然在底部盘整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“春江水暖鸭先知”，榕树投资翟敬勇对新能源行业的跟踪长达10年。他感受到的是一轮由于新能源行业需求爆发而导致的资源品涨价超级周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福也曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实，而新能源龙头企业也或将迎来高利润和高股东回报阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇是一位自下而上的投资者，他总是在调研的路上，过去近30年的时间跑了500多家上市公司。2015年以来，翟敬勇的调研重心非常自然地从万华化学、贵州茅台等传统经济龙头公司身上，转向了宁德时代、阳光电源等新能源公司身上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇近期在接受券商中国记者采访时认为，新能源汽车销量国内乘用车渗透率今年已经接近60%，对于投资者来说，业绩大爆发的新能源龙头企业已经迎来高股东回报时刻，这一行业从十年之前的负债率偏高、估值高企等“难投”阶段，变为高利润、高现金流、低负债率、低估值、高股东回报的“甜蜜”阶段，类似巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司或段永平在2011年买入苹果公司的阶段。</p><h2 id=\"id_2912409282\">相似的逻辑或在上演？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇早在两年前就重仓多家新能源龙头企业，在他看来，这些企业在其买入之时的估值仅有5到8倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在2024年初，某新能源电池龙头企业股价最低为140元/股，市值为5800亿元。翟敬勇计算认为，这家公司2025年的账面利润大概在700亿元，如果将质保金和加速折旧的利润加回利润总额，那么这家企业的年利润大概在1000亿元，这是因为该公司每年提取的100多亿的质保金动用的概率非常小，而该公司的折旧年限仅为3年，远远低于同行业8年的平均折旧年限。按照当时的市值来算，该公司的实际估值仅为6倍左右。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇认为，价值投资的核心是不会变的，即“买股票就是买公司，用4毛钱的东西买1块钱的东西”，因此便宜就是硬道理，无论是当下买新能源龙头企业，还是段永平2011年买苹果公司，亦或是巴菲特2015年买苹果公司，都是基于同样的道理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果在2006年下半年，推出第一款iPhone 1，从那个时候，市场开始慢慢接受智能手机。但是，苹果公司的利润率并没有上来，在那个时候展现的是一个高PE估值。段永平是在2011年开始买入苹果公司的，那个时候苹果市值约3000亿美元，苹果公司账上有1000亿美元的现金，那个时候苹果的年利润不到200亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在2011年时，段永平认为，苹果未来5年左右盈利大概率会涨很多，年利润至少会到达500亿美元，那就相当于用2000亿美元左右市值买个目前每年赚接近200亿美元，未来5年左右会赚到年赚500亿美元以上的公司，而且往后还会继续很好。段永平说，如果有这个结论，买苹果不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的机会成本就可以决定了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年元旦，段永平晒出了他所管理的一个账户。该账户持仓全部是苹果公司，最早的一笔是2011年11月18日买入，耗资180.26万美元，截至2025年12月31日，盈利3392.08万美元，总回报1881.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇说，当前阶段买入新能源龙头企业，类似2011年买入苹果公司，彼时智能手机的保有率正开始从10%上升到100%。智能手机在2011年时不到中国市场手机保有量的10%，而现在新能源汽车的保有量也不到传统汽车保有量的10%。现在投新能源龙头企业，正类似2011年段永平买入苹果公司或者巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇认为，随着智能手机的大规模普及，苹果公司赚得盆满钵满，段永平买入苹果公司之时，苹果公司的市值仅为3000亿美元，而此后的10年时间中，苹果公司仅用分红加回购的方式就为股东派发超过1万亿美元，未来随着新能源汽车保有量从10%上升到100%，新能源龙头公司也必将超预期地回报股东。</p><h2 id=\"id_1289073398\">新能源行业的爆发推动上游资源品涨价</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇对新能源行业的上游资源品公司进行了布局，他认为国内汽车保有量为3.53亿辆，而‌全国新能源汽车保有量为3140万辆‌，新能源汽车目前占比不到10%，未来十年的大趋势是新能源汽车几乎全部替代传统汽车，这一趋势与2011年智能手机替代功能性手机一样，龙头企业的利润空间就此相对确定性地打开，也拉动了上游资源品价格上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据中国汽车流通协会数据，2025年11月国内新能源乘用车零售渗透率增长至59.3%，较去年同期提升7个百分点。在2025年12月第一周，这一数字更是首次突破60%达62.2%，新能源汽车已成为大多消费者的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">王传福在2016年论坛上还表示，其实很多新生事物的发展，比如像平板电视代替显像管电视、数码代替胶卷，有时候1%需要10年甚至更长的时间。但是到了1%就认为拐点已经出现，从1%—10%不需要10年，仅仅5年就够了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">新能源汽车的替代率目前已经接近10%，未来是10%到100%的市场空间。不只是宁德时代、比亚迪这样的企业看到了机会，就连万华化学这样的传统企业也在布局电池行业，带动了电池行业上游资源品的价格上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资是一个“优中选优”的过程。翟敬勇认为，投资需要突破心中的“魔障”，不能躺在功劳簿上一劳永逸，价值投资就是“寻找伟大的企业，坚持好股好价”，当好的机会来临时一定要重仓持有，而非浅尝辄止。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n涨价，涨价！新能源替代潮来袭，下一个“苹果级”回报就在眼前？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-11 08:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>2025年以来，铜涨价、锂涨价，镍钴涨价，铝涨价，甚至连硫磺也在涨价，这显然不是单纯的经济复苏或货币现象所致，因为水泥、玻璃、钢铁等其他资源品行情依然在底部盘整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“春江水暖鸭先知”，榕树投资翟敬勇对新能源行业的跟踪长达10年。他感受到的是一轮由于新能源行业需求爆发而导致的资源品涨价超级周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福也曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实，而新能源龙头企业也或将迎来高利润和高股东回报阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇是一位自下而上的投资者，他总是在调研的路上，过去近30年的时间跑了500多家上市公司。2015年以来，翟敬勇的调研重心非常自然地从万华化学、贵州茅台等传统经济龙头公司身上，转向了宁德时代、阳光电源等新能源公司身上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇近期在接受券商中国记者采访时认为，新能源汽车销量国内乘用车渗透率今年已经接近60%，对于投资者来说，业绩大爆发的新能源龙头企业已经迎来高股东回报时刻，这一行业从十年之前的负债率偏高、估值高企等“难投”阶段，变为高利润、高现金流、低负债率、低估值、高股东回报的“甜蜜”阶段，类似巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司或段永平在2011年买入苹果公司的阶段。</p><h2 id=\"id_2912409282\">相似的逻辑或在上演？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇早在两年前就重仓多家新能源龙头企业，在他看来，这些企业在其买入之时的估值仅有5到8倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在2024年初，某新能源电池龙头企业股价最低为140元/股，市值为5800亿元。翟敬勇计算认为，这家公司2025年的账面利润大概在700亿元，如果将质保金和加速折旧的利润加回利润总额，那么这家企业的年利润大概在1000亿元，这是因为该公司每年提取的100多亿的质保金动用的概率非常小，而该公司的折旧年限仅为3年，远远低于同行业8年的平均折旧年限。按照当时的市值来算，该公司的实际估值仅为6倍左右。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇认为，价值投资的核心是不会变的，即“买股票就是买公司，用4毛钱的东西买1块钱的东西”，因此便宜就是硬道理，无论是当下买新能源龙头企业，还是段永平2011年买苹果公司，亦或是巴菲特2015年买苹果公司，都是基于同样的道理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">苹果在2006年下半年，推出第一款iPhone 1，从那个时候，市场开始慢慢接受智能手机。但是，苹果公司的利润率并没有上来，在那个时候展现的是一个高PE估值。段永平是在2011年开始买入苹果公司的，那个时候苹果市值约3000亿美元，苹果公司账上有1000亿美元的现金，那个时候苹果的年利润不到200亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在2011年时，段永平认为，苹果未来5年左右盈利大概率会涨很多，年利润至少会到达500亿美元，那就相当于用2000亿美元左右市值买个目前每年赚接近200亿美元，未来5年左右会赚到年赚500亿美元以上的公司，而且往后还会继续很好。段永平说，如果有这个结论，买苹果不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的机会成本就可以决定了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2026年元旦，段永平晒出了他所管理的一个账户。该账户持仓全部是苹果公司，最早的一笔是2011年11月18日买入，耗资180.26万美元，截至2025年12月31日，盈利3392.08万美元，总回报1881.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇说，当前阶段买入新能源龙头企业，类似2011年买入苹果公司，彼时智能手机的保有率正开始从10%上升到100%。智能手机在2011年时不到中国市场手机保有量的10%，而现在新能源汽车的保有量也不到传统汽车保有量的10%。现在投新能源龙头企业，正类似2011年段永平买入苹果公司或者巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇认为，随着智能手机的大规模普及，苹果公司赚得盆满钵满，段永平买入苹果公司之时，苹果公司的市值仅为3000亿美元，而此后的10年时间中，苹果公司仅用分红加回购的方式就为股东派发超过1万亿美元，未来随着新能源汽车保有量从10%上升到100%，新能源龙头公司也必将超预期地回报股东。</p><h2 id=\"id_1289073398\">新能源行业的爆发推动上游资源品涨价</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">翟敬勇对新能源行业的上游资源品公司进行了布局，他认为国内汽车保有量为3.53亿辆，而‌全国新能源汽车保有量为3140万辆‌，新能源汽车目前占比不到10%，未来十年的大趋势是新能源汽车几乎全部替代传统汽车，这一趋势与2011年智能手机替代功能性手机一样，龙头企业的利润空间就此相对确定性地打开，也拉动了上游资源品价格上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据中国汽车流通协会数据，2025年11月国内新能源乘用车零售渗透率增长至59.3%，较去年同期提升7个百分点。在2025年12月第一周，这一数字更是首次突破60%达62.2%，新能源汽车已成为大多消费者的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">王传福在2016年论坛上还表示，其实很多新生事物的发展，比如像平板电视代替显像管电视、数码代替胶卷，有时候1%需要10年甚至更长的时间。但是到了1%就认为拐点已经出现，从1%—10%不需要10年，仅仅5年就够了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">新能源汽车的替代率目前已经接近10%，未来是10%到100%的市场空间。不只是宁德时代、比亚迪这样的企业看到了机会，就连万华化学这样的传统企业也在布局电池行业，带动了电池行业上游资源品的价格上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资是一个“优中选优”的过程。翟敬勇认为，投资需要突破心中的“魔障”，不能躺在功劳簿上一劳永逸，价值投资就是“寻找伟大的企业，坚持好股好价”，当好的机会来临时一定要重仓持有，而非浅尝辄止。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a530a2a17bc301499c9e286759c5657e","relate_stocks":{"300274":"阳光电源","300750":"宁德时代","03750":"宁德时代"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199939577","content_text":"2025年以来，铜涨价、锂涨价，镍钴涨价，铝涨价，甚至连硫磺也在涨价，这显然不是单纯的经济复苏或货币现象所致，因为水泥、玻璃、钢铁等其他资源品行情依然在底部盘整。“春江水暖鸭先知”，榕树投资翟敬勇对新能源行业的跟踪长达10年。他感受到的是一轮由于新能源行业需求爆发而导致的资源品涨价超级周期。2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福也曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实，而新能源龙头企业也或将迎来高利润和高股东回报阶段。翟敬勇是一位自下而上的投资者，他总是在调研的路上，过去近30年的时间跑了500多家上市公司。2015年以来，翟敬勇的调研重心非常自然地从万华化学、贵州茅台等传统经济龙头公司身上，转向了宁德时代、阳光电源等新能源公司身上。翟敬勇近期在接受券商中国记者采访时认为，新能源汽车销量国内乘用车渗透率今年已经接近60%，对于投资者来说，业绩大爆发的新能源龙头企业已经迎来高股东回报时刻，这一行业从十年之前的负债率偏高、估值高企等“难投”阶段，变为高利润、高现金流、低负债率、低估值、高股东回报的“甜蜜”阶段，类似巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司或段永平在2011年买入苹果公司的阶段。相似的逻辑或在上演？翟敬勇早在两年前就重仓多家新能源龙头企业，在他看来，这些企业在其买入之时的估值仅有5到8倍。在2024年初，某新能源电池龙头企业股价最低为140元/股，市值为5800亿元。翟敬勇计算认为，这家公司2025年的账面利润大概在700亿元，如果将质保金和加速折旧的利润加回利润总额，那么这家企业的年利润大概在1000亿元，这是因为该公司每年提取的100多亿的质保金动用的概率非常小，而该公司的折旧年限仅为3年，远远低于同行业8年的平均折旧年限。按照当时的市值来算，该公司的实际估值仅为6倍左右。翟敬勇认为，价值投资的核心是不会变的，即“买股票就是买公司，用4毛钱的东西买1块钱的东西”，因此便宜就是硬道理，无论是当下买新能源龙头企业，还是段永平2011年买苹果公司，亦或是巴菲特2015年买苹果公司，都是基于同样的道理。苹果在2006年下半年，推出第一款iPhone 1，从那个时候，市场开始慢慢接受智能手机。但是，苹果公司的利润率并没有上来，在那个时候展现的是一个高PE估值。段永平是在2011年开始买入苹果公司的，那个时候苹果市值约3000亿美元，苹果公司账上有1000亿美元的现金，那个时候苹果的年利润不到200亿美元。在2011年时，段永平认为，苹果未来5年左右盈利大概率会涨很多，年利润至少会到达500亿美元，那就相当于用2000亿美元左右市值买个目前每年赚接近200亿美元，未来5年左右会赚到年赚500亿美元以上的公司，而且往后还会继续很好。段永平说，如果有这个结论，买苹果不过是个简单算术题，你只要根据你自己的机会成本就可以决定了。2026年元旦，段永平晒出了他所管理的一个账户。该账户持仓全部是苹果公司，最早的一笔是2011年11月18日买入，耗资180.26万美元，截至2025年12月31日，盈利3392.08万美元，总回报1881.8%。翟敬勇说，当前阶段买入新能源龙头企业，类似2011年买入苹果公司，彼时智能手机的保有率正开始从10%上升到100%。智能手机在2011年时不到中国市场手机保有量的10%，而现在新能源汽车的保有量也不到传统汽车保有量的10%。现在投新能源龙头企业，正类似2011年段永平买入苹果公司或者巴菲特在2015年买入苹果公司。翟敬勇认为，随着智能手机的大规模普及，苹果公司赚得盆满钵满，段永平买入苹果公司之时，苹果公司的市值仅为3000亿美元，而此后的10年时间中，苹果公司仅用分红加回购的方式就为股东派发超过1万亿美元，未来随着新能源汽车保有量从10%上升到100%，新能源龙头公司也必将超预期地回报股东。新能源行业的爆发推动上游资源品涨价2016年，比亚迪董事长王传福曾在一个论坛上预言，“电动汽车的发展给锂资源从丰富带来紧张，给镁资源带来巨大的提升和利用，对铜资源可能会带来短缺。”10年之后，王传福的预言正在变为现实。翟敬勇对新能源行业的上游资源品公司进行了布局，他认为国内汽车保有量为3.53亿辆，而‌全国新能源汽车保有量为3140万辆‌，新能源汽车目前占比不到10%，未来十年的大趋势是新能源汽车几乎全部替代传统汽车，这一趋势与2011年智能手机替代功能性手机一样，龙头企业的利润空间就此相对确定性地打开，也拉动了上游资源品价格上涨。据中国汽车流通协会数据，2025年11月国内新能源乘用车零售渗透率增长至59.3%，较去年同期提升7个百分点。在2025年12月第一周，这一数字更是首次突破60%达62.2%，新能源汽车已成为大多消费者的选择。王传福在2016年论坛上还表示，其实很多新生事物的发展，比如像平板电视代替显像管电视、数码代替胶卷，有时候1%需要10年甚至更长的时间。但是到了1%就认为拐点已经出现，从1%—10%不需要10年，仅仅5年就够了。新能源汽车的替代率目前已经接近10%，未来是10%到100%的市场空间。不只是宁德时代、比亚迪这样的企业看到了机会，就连万华化学这样的传统企业也在布局电池行业，带动了电池行业上游资源品的价格上涨。投资是一个“优中选优”的过程。翟敬勇认为，投资需要突破心中的“魔障”，不能躺在功劳簿上一劳永逸，价值投资就是“寻找伟大的企业，坚持好股好价”，当好的机会来临时一定要重仓持有，而非浅尝辄止。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300274":2,"300750":2,"03750":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572071041496714","authorId":"3572071041496714","name":"alexande007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7204136f9322395ab13073bd18d7ef40","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572071041496714","authorIdStr":"3572071041496714"},"content":"反着听就对了，说明新能源汽车倒闭潮来袭","text":"反着听就对了，说明新能源汽车倒闭潮来袭","html":"反着听就对了，说明新能源汽车倒闭潮来袭"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512772550583224,"gmtCreate":1766215650897,"gmtModify":1766220722897,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090487371938690","authorIdStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"比高启盛还不要脸","listText":"比高启盛还不要脸","text":"比高启盛还不要脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512772550583224","repostId":"2592116411","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2592116411","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1766201319,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2592116411?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-20 11:28","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"高盛2026年全球股市展望：更广泛的牛市，更宽泛的AI受益者","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592116411","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛预计2026年全球股市牛市延续，市值加权总回报率达15%，主要由盈利增长而非估值扩张驱动。市场呈现拓宽趋势，非美市场表现将优于美股，亚太新兴市场回报率预期达18%。AI红利从核心科技巨头扩散至更广泛行业，尤其是那些能利用AI及相关技术提升利润率和生产力的企业。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛预计2026年全球股市牛市延续，市值加权总回报率达15%，主要由盈利增长而非估值扩张驱动。市场呈现拓宽趋势，非美市场表现将优于美股，亚太新兴市场回报率预期达18%。AI红利从核心科技巨头扩散至更广泛行业，尤其是那些能利用AI及相关技术提升利润率和生产力的企业。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>称，2026年全球股市将延续牛市行情，但指数回报率将低于2025年，市场将呈现更广泛的多元化特征。AI红利从核心科技巨头向更广泛领域扩散。</p><p>12月20日，据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新发布的2026年全球股票策略展望报告中表示，在持续的经济增长和美联储进一步温和宽松的支撑下，股市仍有上涨空间。</p><p>高盛将当前市场定义为周期中的&#34;乐观&#34;阶段，预计这一阶段将在2026年延续。以市值加权计算，<strong>2026年全球股市价格回报率将达到13%，包含股息后总回报率为15%</strong>。大部分回报将由盈利增长驱动，而非估值扩张。</p><p>报告称，<strong>2025年全球股市已呈现明显的拓宽趋势</strong>，首次出现美股跑输其他主要市场的情况，欧洲、中国和亚洲市场的美元总回报几乎是美国的两倍，<strong>预计这一趋势将在2026年持续强化，非美市场表现将优于美股，</strong>打破此前市场高度集中的格局。</p><p>该行强调，当前科技板块的主导地位并非由AI单一因素驱动，而是始于金融危机后，由持续的盈利增长支撑，且当前估值并未达到历史泡沫水平。2026年，<strong>AI红利将进一步扩散，受益范围从核心科技巨头延伸至更广泛的行业与企业，尤其是那些能利用AI及相关技术提升利润率和生产力的企业。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2661155958\">经济扩张与政策宽松支撑牛市延续</h2><p>高盛称，2026年全球经济将维持全面扩张态势，美联储有望进一步适度宽松货币政策，这一宏观环境为股市提供坚实支撑。</p><p>从收益预期来看，该行预计，按区域市值加权计算，2026年全球股市美元计价的价格回报率为13%，含股息回报率达15%，且大部分收益由盈利增长驱动。</p><p>高盛认为，<strong>当前市场正处于股市周期的 “乐观阶段”，这一阶段的典型特征是投资者信心提升，估值往往会进一步上涨，为核心预期带来上行风险，有望推动市场实现超预期表现。</strong></p><p>该行将股市周期分为四个阶段：&#34;绝望&#34;阶段（熊市）、&#34;希望&#34;阶段（估值驱动的反弹）、&#34;增长&#34;阶段（盈利驱动的最长阶段）和&#34;乐观&#34;阶段（投资者信心增强，估值再次上升）。</p><p>以新冠疫情触发的熊市作为当前周期起点，高盛观察到相当典型的周期演进：<strong>2025年是早期乐观阶段的典型例子，许多股市（特别是估值较低的美国以外市场）出现估值上升和盈利增长并存的情况。</strong></p><p>同时，报告指出，历史数据显示，在无衰退的情况下，即便估值处于高位，股市也难以出现大幅回调或熊市。</p><p>美国12个月前瞻市盈率达到22.3倍，即使剔除大型科技股也达到20.2倍。日本、欧洲和新兴市场的估值同样接近或达到历史高点。</p><p>在高估值背景下，高盛<strong>预计2026年的回报更多将由基本面盈利增长而非估值扩张驱动</strong>。该行的盈利模型显示：</p><blockquote><p>2026年所有地区将实现持续正增长，增速超过2025年。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>预计盈利增长12%，STOXX 600增长5%，日本TOPIX增长9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>（除日本）增长16%。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2718064074\">牛市拓宽，非美与非科技板块崛起</h2><p>报告称，2025年全球股市已呈现明显的拓宽趋势，这一趋势将在2026年持续强化，打破此前市场高度集中的格局。</p><p>高盛表示，2025年近十五年来首次出现美股表现不佳的情况，欧洲、中国、亚洲等主要市场的总回报率（美元计价）几乎是美股的两倍。</p><blockquote><p>意大利（54%）、西班牙（73%）、韩国（71%）等特定市场表现尤为突出，新兴市场在盈利增长提速、美国利率下降及美元走弱的双重利好下，开始显著上涨。</p></blockquote><p>高盛预测，<strong>2026年美股仍将小幅跑输全球其他市场，MSCI<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002284\">亚太</a>（除日本）指数和MSCI新兴市场指数的美元计价总回报率均有望达到18%，远超标普500指数15%的预期。</strong></p><p><strong>风格方面，</strong>美国市场仍以成长股为主导，但在非美市场，价值股表现更优，打破了过去十年成长股一统天下的格局。</p><p>高盛表示，金融、矿业等传统价值板块成功从“价值陷阱”转型为“价值创造者”，而科技资本支出的扩大也为“旧经济”中的基础设施相关领域带来了新的增长机遇。</p><p><strong>行业方面，</strong>收益拓宽趋势同样明显。2025年科技与金融（分别属于成长和价值板块）成为领涨行业，而房地产和医疗保健（分别属于周期和防御板块）则表现滞后，反映出成长与价值板块内部均有优质标的脱颖而出。</p><p>标普500指数中，前七大科技巨头的盈利贡献占比将从2025年的50%降至2026年的46%，其余493家公司的盈利增速将从7%提升至9%，行业集中度进一步下降。</p><h2 id=\"id_2155885943\">AI红利：从核心巨头到广泛受益者的扩散</h2><p>2026年，AI红利将进一步扩散，受益范围从核心科技巨头延伸至更广泛的行业与企业。</p><p>高盛强调，当前的科技股狂热并非破裂前的泡沫。与2000年互联网泡沫时期相比，当前的科技巨头拥有更强的资产负债表和实打实的现金流。</p><p>然而，2025年初由DeepSeek引发的市场波动警示了投资者：<strong>AI竞争正在加剧，且成本结构正在变化。</strong></p><p>高盛观察到，五大AI超大规模计算商（Hyperscalers）之间的股票相关性已从80%暴跌至20%。这表明投资者不再盲目买入整个板块，而是开始挑剔谁是最终赢家。</p><p>高盛认为，<strong>这种分化意味着，即便是在科技板块内部，多元化配置也能带来更优的风险调整后收益。</strong></p><p>报告指出，2026年，投资者将越来越关注科技行业之外的AI受益者，尤其是那些能利用AI及相关技术提升利润率和生产力的企业。</p><blockquote><p>科技资本支出的溢出效应将持续显现，推动工业、材料、金融等非科技板块中的相关企业实现增长，形成“AI+行业”的跨界增长浪潮，进一步拓宽牛市的行业覆盖面。</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛2026年全球股市展望：更广泛的牛市，更宽泛的AI受益者</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛2026年全球股市展望：更广泛的牛市，更宽泛的AI受益者\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-20 11:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761759><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛预计2026年全球股市牛市延续，市值加权总回报率达15%，主要由盈利增长而非估值扩张驱动。市场呈现拓宽趋势，非美市场表现将优于美股，亚太新兴市场回报率预期达18%。AI红利从核心科技巨头扩散至更广泛行业，尤其是那些能利用AI及相关技术提升利润率和生产力的企业。高盛称，2026年全球股市将延续牛市行情，但指数回报率将低于2025年，市场将呈现更广泛的多元化特征。AI红利从核心科技巨头向更广泛领域...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761759\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761759","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2592116411","content_text":"高盛预计2026年全球股市牛市延续，市值加权总回报率达15%，主要由盈利增长而非估值扩张驱动。市场呈现拓宽趋势，非美市场表现将优于美股，亚太新兴市场回报率预期达18%。AI红利从核心科技巨头扩散至更广泛行业，尤其是那些能利用AI及相关技术提升利润率和生产力的企业。高盛称，2026年全球股市将延续牛市行情，但指数回报率将低于2025年，市场将呈现更广泛的多元化特征。AI红利从核心科技巨头向更广泛领域扩散。12月20日，据追风交易台消息，高盛在最新发布的2026年全球股票策略展望报告中表示，在持续的经济增长和美联储进一步温和宽松的支撑下，股市仍有上涨空间。高盛将当前市场定义为周期中的\"乐观\"阶段，预计这一阶段将在2026年延续。以市值加权计算，2026年全球股市价格回报率将达到13%，包含股息后总回报率为15%。大部分回报将由盈利增长驱动，而非估值扩张。报告称，2025年全球股市已呈现明显的拓宽趋势，首次出现美股跑输其他主要市场的情况，欧洲、中国和亚洲市场的美元总回报几乎是美国的两倍，预计这一趋势将在2026年持续强化，非美市场表现将优于美股，打破此前市场高度集中的格局。该行强调，当前科技板块的主导地位并非由AI单一因素驱动，而是始于金融危机后，由持续的盈利增长支撑，且当前估值并未达到历史泡沫水平。2026年，AI红利将进一步扩散，受益范围从核心科技巨头延伸至更广泛的行业与企业，尤其是那些能利用AI及相关技术提升利润率和生产力的企业。经济扩张与政策宽松支撑牛市延续高盛称，2026年全球经济将维持全面扩张态势，美联储有望进一步适度宽松货币政策，这一宏观环境为股市提供坚实支撑。从收益预期来看，该行预计，按区域市值加权计算，2026年全球股市美元计价的价格回报率为13%，含股息回报率达15%，且大部分收益由盈利增长驱动。高盛认为，当前市场正处于股市周期的 “乐观阶段”，这一阶段的典型特征是投资者信心提升，估值往往会进一步上涨，为核心预期带来上行风险，有望推动市场实现超预期表现。该行将股市周期分为四个阶段：\"绝望\"阶段（熊市）、\"希望\"阶段（估值驱动的反弹）、\"增长\"阶段（盈利驱动的最长阶段）和\"乐观\"阶段（投资者信心增强，估值再次上升）。以新冠疫情触发的熊市作为当前周期起点，高盛观察到相当典型的周期演进：2025年是早期乐观阶段的典型例子，许多股市（特别是估值较低的美国以外市场）出现估值上升和盈利增长并存的情况。同时，报告指出，历史数据显示，在无衰退的情况下，即便估值处于高位，股市也难以出现大幅回调或熊市。美国12个月前瞻市盈率达到22.3倍，即使剔除大型科技股也达到20.2倍。日本、欧洲和新兴市场的估值同样接近或达到历史高点。在高估值背景下，高盛预计2026年的回报更多将由基本面盈利增长而非估值扩张驱动。该行的盈利模型显示：2026年所有地区将实现持续正增长，增速超过2025年。标普500预计盈利增长12%，STOXX 600增长5%，日本TOPIX增长9%，亚太（除日本）增长16%。牛市拓宽，非美与非科技板块崛起报告称，2025年全球股市已呈现明显的拓宽趋势，这一趋势将在2026年持续强化，打破此前市场高度集中的格局。高盛表示，2025年近十五年来首次出现美股表现不佳的情况，欧洲、中国、亚洲等主要市场的总回报率（美元计价）几乎是美股的两倍。意大利（54%）、西班牙（73%）、韩国（71%）等特定市场表现尤为突出，新兴市场在盈利增长提速、美国利率下降及美元走弱的双重利好下，开始显著上涨。高盛预测，2026年美股仍将小幅跑输全球其他市场，MSCI亚太（除日本）指数和MSCI新兴市场指数的美元计价总回报率均有望达到18%，远超标普500指数15%的预期。风格方面，美国市场仍以成长股为主导，但在非美市场，价值股表现更优，打破了过去十年成长股一统天下的格局。高盛表示，金融、矿业等传统价值板块成功从“价值陷阱”转型为“价值创造者”，而科技资本支出的扩大也为“旧经济”中的基础设施相关领域带来了新的增长机遇。行业方面，收益拓宽趋势同样明显。2025年科技与金融（分别属于成长和价值板块）成为领涨行业，而房地产和医疗保健（分别属于周期和防御板块）则表现滞后，反映出成长与价值板块内部均有优质标的脱颖而出。标普500指数中，前七大科技巨头的盈利贡献占比将从2025年的50%降至2026年的46%，其余493家公司的盈利增速将从7%提升至9%，行业集中度进一步下降。AI红利：从核心巨头到广泛受益者的扩散2026年，AI红利将进一步扩散，受益范围从核心科技巨头延伸至更广泛的行业与企业。高盛强调，当前的科技股狂热并非破裂前的泡沫。与2000年互联网泡沫时期相比，当前的科技巨头拥有更强的资产负债表和实打实的现金流。然而，2025年初由DeepSeek引发的市场波动警示了投资者：AI竞争正在加剧，且成本结构正在变化。高盛观察到，五大AI超大规模计算商（Hyperscalers）之间的股票相关性已从80%暴跌至20%。这表明投资者不再盲目买入整个板块，而是开始挑剔谁是最终赢家。高盛认为，这种分化意味着，即便是在科技板块内部，多元化配置也能带来更优的风险调整后收益。报告指出，2026年，投资者将越来越关注科技行业之外的AI受益者，尤其是那些能利用AI及相关技术提升利润率和生产力的企业。科技资本支出的溢出效应将持续显现，推动工业、材料、金融等非科技板块中的相关企业实现增长，形成“AI+行业”的跨界增长浪潮，进一步拓宽牛市的行业覆盖面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529865308734512,"gmtCreate":1770382623835,"gmtModify":1770382626150,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090487371938690","authorIdStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"估计170-180","listText":"估计170-180","text":"估计170-180","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529865308734512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":527036744094664,"gmtCreate":1769679280722,"gmtModify":1769679283310,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090487371938690","authorIdStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"老黄你是个实在人吗","listText":"老黄你是个实在人吗","text":"老黄你是个实在人吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527036744094664","repostId":"1147386700","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147386700","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769665546,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147386700?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-29 13:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"黄仁勋：英伟达今年将实现大幅增长，台积电未来十年需要大幅增加产能","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147386700","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"29日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋称，对Rubin的需求令人难以置信的强劲。能源对美国、台湾和欧洲来说是一个巨大挑战。正与英特尔合作开发定制x86处理器。台积电未来十年需要大幅增加产能。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>29日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋称，对Rubin的需求令人难以置信的强劲。</p><p>能源对美国、台湾和欧洲来说是一个巨大挑战。正与英特尔合作开发定制x86处理器。</p><p>台积电未来十年需要大幅增加产能。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄仁勋：英伟达今年将实现大幅增长，台积电未来十年需要大幅增加产能</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764440\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764440","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147386700","content_text":"29日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋称，对Rubin的需求令人难以置信的强劲。能源对美国、台湾和欧洲来说是一个巨大挑战。正与英特尔合作开发定制x86处理器。台积电未来十年需要大幅增加产能。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2,"TSM":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":526204017755384,"gmtCreate":1769492667780,"gmtModify":1769492670214,"author":{"id":"4090487371938690","authorId":"4090487371938690","name":"香蕉大皮也大","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090487371938690","authorIdStr":"4090487371938690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"14什么意思","listText":"14什么意思","text":"14什么意思","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/526204017755384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}