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2021-08-06
What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?
ASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day<blockquote>ASML：强劲的势头应该会在即将到来的投资者日带来更高的收入预期</blockquote>
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$1000?","listText":"What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?","text":"What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893921827","repostId":"1123853854","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123853854","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628045254,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123853854?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 10:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day<blockquote>ASML：强劲的势头应该会在即将到来的投资者日带来更高的收入预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123853854","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was im","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>ASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program.</li> <li>My medium-term expectations for EUV sales were confirmed by the company, which means that ASML will certainly raise its 2025 revenue estimates at its upcoming investor day.</li> <li>The stock has reached consecutive new all-time highs in recent months, but there is still upside in the short term.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML最近公布的2021年第二季度收益相当不错，订单量也令人印象深刻，还宣布了新的股票回购计划。</li><li>我对EUV销售的中期预期得到了该公司的证实，这意味着ASML肯定会在即将到来的投资者日上调2025年的收入预期。</li><li>该股近几个月连续创出历史新高，但短期仍有上行空间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>ASMLNV</b>(ASML) continues to be one of the best semiconductor stocks for long-term investors and the upcoming investor day can be an important catalyst for a higher share price.</p><p><blockquote><b>ASMLNV</b>（ASML）仍然是长期投资者最好的半导体股票之一，即将到来的投资者日可能是股价上涨的重要催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> I have been bullish on ASML since my first article was published on the company last March, even though I’ve taken some profits recently because this stock was my largest holding and I wanted to diversify my portfolio a little bit.</p><p><blockquote>自从去年3月发表第一篇关于ASML的文章以来，我一直看好该公司，尽管我最近获利了结，因为这只股票是我最大的持股，我想稍微分散一下我的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the company has reported earnings related to Q2 2021, that continued to show a great operating performance, and my growth expectations were upgraded due to bullish comments from the company.</p><p><blockquote>此后，该公司公布了与2021年第二季度相关的收益，继续显示出良好的经营业绩，由于该公司的看涨评论，我的增长预期被上调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q2 2021, ASML reported strong revenue and earnings growth, showing that its operating momentum continues to be quite strong. Its revenues increased by 21% YoY to €4 billion, which was slightly below estimates, while its net income was around €1 billion and EPS was €2.52 (+41% YoY), ahead of sell-side expectations.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度，ASML报告了强劲的收入和盈利增长，表明其运营势头继续相当强劲。其收入同比增长21%至40亿欧元，略低于预期，而净利润约为10亿欧元，每股收益为2.52欧元（同比增长41%），超出卖方预期。</blockquote></p><p> During the quarter, ASML’s net systems sales amounted to €2.9 billion, while its Installed Base Management sales were €1.1 billion. This revenue from Installed Based Management was above the company’s guidance of around €900 million and is justified by the current situation in the semiconductor industry (the chip shortage) that is pushing customers to software upgrades to improve productivity of the systems.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，ASML的净系统销售额为29亿欧元，而其安装基地管理销售额为11亿欧元。来自安装管理的收入高于该公司约9亿欧元的指导，并且半导体行业的当前形势（芯片短缺）促使客户进行软件升级以提高系统生产力，这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> In this last quarter, ASML has recognized revenue fornineEUV units, compared tosevenunits in the previous quarter, even though it has delivered 10 units to customers and will recognize revenue for the remaining unit in the next quarter. EUV revenue represented 45% of its system sales in the quarter, compared to 36% in the previous quarter, and shows that EUV should be its major growth source in the next few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>在上个季度，ASML已确认了9台EUV设备的收入，而上一季度为7台，尽管它已向客户交付了10台设备，并将在下个季度确认剩余设备的收入。EUV收入占本季度系统销售额的45%，而上一季度为36%，这表明EUV应该是其未来几个季度的主要增长来源。</blockquote></p><p> At this pace, ASML should increase the number of EUV units delivered in 2020 compared to the previous year (it delivered 31 EUV units), but it may miss my expectation of about 38 units delivered this year if deliveries do not ramp a little bit up in the next two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>按照这个速度，ASML应该会比上一年增加2020年交付的EUV单元数量（交付了31个EUV单元），但如果交付量不增加一点，它可能会达不到我今年交付约38个单元的预期。接下来的两个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a48a69a3ba61e82df997470af977ae5\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML’s gross margin of 50.9% was above its prior guidance, mainly due to software upgrades that weren’t expected. Its gross margin outlook for the full year is between 51-52%, compared to 48.6% reported in 2020, another support for earnings growth in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的毛利率为50.9%，高于之前的指引，主要是由于软件升级出乎意料。其全年毛利率预期在51-52%之间，而2020年报告的毛利率为48.6%，这是未来几个季度盈利增长的另一个支撑。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its net bookings, they were close to €8.3 billion, of which €4.9 billion is related to EUV systems, which is a reflection of the strong demand that currently exists in the semiconductor industry. This represents a great increase in bookings compared to the previous quarter (€4.7 billion in Q1), which is not totally surprising considering the recent announcements by its major customers <b>TSMC</b>(TSM) and <b>Intel</b>(INTC) of new factories and increased capex plans for the next couple of years, of which lithography machines are critical elements.</p><p><blockquote>关于其净预订量，接近83亿欧元，其中49亿欧元与EUV系统相关，这反映了半导体行业目前存在的强劲需求。与上一季度（第一季度为47亿欧元）相比，这意味着预订量大幅增长，考虑到其主要客户最近的公告，这并不完全令人惊讶<b>台积电</b>（TSM）和<b>英特尔</b>（INTC）的新工厂和未来几年增加的资本支出计划，其中光刻机是关键要素。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that, while the majority of orders for EUV units come from Logic customers, this quarter ASML had the greatest order intake from Memory customers, most likely from <b>Micron Technology</b>(MU) and <b>SK Hynix</b>(OTC:HXSCF), which is important to diversify its customer base that still is relatively concentrated regarding EUV units. Moreover, investors should also be aware that ASML is not selling EUV units in China, which could represent another growth source in the future if, eventually, the U.S.-China political relationships improve, even though I think that is unlikely at this stage.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，虽然EUV单元的大部分订单来自逻辑客户，但本季度ASML从内存客户那里获得的订单最多，很可能来自<b>美光科技</b>(MU)和<b>SK海力士</b>（场外交易代码：HXSCF），这对于实现其客户群多元化非常重要，该客户群仍然相对集中在EUV设备上。此外，投资者还应该意识到，ASML没有在中国销售EUV设备，如果美中政治关系最终改善，这可能是未来的另一个增长来源，尽管我认为现阶段不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, the company raised its 2021 guidance and now expects net revenue growth of about 35% (previous expectations were for 30% annual revenue growth) and a gross margin between 51-52%. ASML has also guided for EUV revenue growth of about 35% YoY, which corresponds to some 39-40 units, thus the company is expecting to deliver a higher number of units in the second half of the year than in the previous six months, justified by its push to improve its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，该公司上调了2021年指引，目前预计净收入增长约35%（此前预期年收入增长30%），毛利率在51-52%之间。ASML还预计EUV收入同比增长约35%，相当于约39-40台，因此该公司预计下半年交付的单位数量将高于前六个月，这是合理的其推动提高制造和供应链能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As I’ve discussed in a previous article, ASML was somewhat constrained to grow its EUV production and has made some efforts to increase production in the coming years. This was confirmed in the earnings call, with the company saying that it expects to deliver some 55 units in 2022, growing to over 60 units in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在上一篇文章中所讨论的，ASML在增加EUV产量方面受到一定限制，并在未来几年做出了一些努力来增加产量。这一点在财报看涨期权中得到了证实，该公司表示，预计2022年交付约55台，2023年将增长到60多台。</blockquote></p><p> I’ve forecasted in that previous analysis that ASML would grow its EUV sales by aroundfiveunits per year after 2022 and reach unit sales of around 70 units by 2025. This now seems to be a conservative estimate and ASML may easily beat my expectations of 70 units and around €11 billion in revenue from EUV by 2025, as demand for its systems is clearly very strong right now.</p><p><blockquote>我在之前的分析中预测，ASML的EUV销量将在2022年之后每年增长约5台，到2025年销量将达到约70台。这现在似乎是一个保守的估计，ASML可能会轻松超出我的预期，即到2025年，EUV的70台和约110亿欧元的收入，因为目前对其系统的需求显然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed697ade2047cb8381d563726e9a0864\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML and author’s calculations.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML和作者的计算。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Returns & Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本回报和投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> Beyond strong growth and profitability, another positive factor for a higher share price has been its capital return policy, given that ASML has a very good history both through dividends and share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>除了强劲的增长和盈利能力之外，股价上涨的另一个积极因素是其资本回报政策，因为ASML在股息和股票回购方面都有着非常良好的历史。</blockquote></p><p> This trend is not expected to change much over the long term and was reinforced recently. Indeed, as I’ve predicted in a previous article, the company increased its share buyback program to €9 billion, to be completed by the end of 2023, substituting immediately the previous program.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这一趋势预计不会发生太大变化，并且最近得到了加强。事实上，正如我在上一篇文章中预测的那样，该公司将其股票回购计划增加至90亿欧元，将于2023年底完成，立即取代之前的计划。</blockquote></p><p> This is a strong increase from its previous share buyback program of €6 billion that was to be completed this year (ASML completed €5.2 billion of this program), showing that ASML has a solid financial position that enables it to invest in the future of its business through R&D and capex, but also return significant amounts of capital to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>这比其之前将于今年完成的60亿欧元股票回购计划（ASML完成了该计划中的52亿欧元）有了强劲的增长，表明ASML拥有稳健的财务状况，使其能够通过研发和资本支出投资其业务的未来，同时也向股东返还大量资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84129202a0103e8396a273c5740e57a1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML is delivering impressive results and returning even more capital to shareholders, leading its stock to reach consecutive new all-time highs during the past few months. Despite this, there is still upside and this may become more evident in its upcoming investor day, where the company will update investors about its future scenarios regarding revenues and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>ASML取得了令人印象深刻的业绩，并向股东返还了更多资本，导致其股价在过去几个月连续创下历史新高。尽管如此，仍有上涨空间，这一点可能会在即将到来的投资者日变得更加明显，届时该公司将向投资者通报其未来收入和盈利的最新情况。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, ASML has scheduled an investor day on 29 September 2021, where it will certainly raise its medium-term targets compared to the targets set in 2018. Its current revenue target is for a range of €15-24 billion in annual revenues by 2025, which is clearly outdated, considering that ASML should reach revenues of about €19 billion this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，ASML已安排在2021年9月29日举行投资者日，与2018年设定的目标相比，该公司肯定会提高中期目标。其目前的收入目标是到2025年年收入达到15-240亿欧元，考虑到ASML今年的收入应达到约190亿欧元，这显然已经过时了。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve said in previous articles, I expect ASML to increase its revenue target to a medium-level of around €30 billion or higher by 2025, a much higher level than current sell-side consensus' expectation in 2025 (€26.1 billion). Therefore, this investor day could be another catalyst for a higher share price in the short term, as sell-side estimates will most likely increase following this event. This could be an important driver for a higher share price in the next 3-6 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中所说，我预计ASML到2025年将其收入目标提高到300亿欧元左右或更高的中等水平，远高于当前卖方对2025年的共识预期（261亿欧元）。因此，这个投资者日可能是短期内股价上涨的另一个催化剂，因为在此事件之后，卖方的预期很可能会增加。这可能是未来3-6个月股价上涨的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML has reported another good quarter with the strong order intake being the most impressive factor in my opinion. This is clearly a very bullish factor for ASML’s business in the next few years and a good support for higher revenue expectations in the medium term. I expect ASML to increase its revenue range at its upcoming investor day, which may be a positive catalyst for its share price in the coming months, and therefore remain bullish on ASML.</p><p><blockquote>ASML报告了又一个良好的季度，在我看来，强劲的订单量是最令人印象深刻的因素。这显然是对ASML未来几年业务非常看涨的因素，也是对中期更高收入预期的良好支撑。我预计ASML将在即将到来的投资者日提高其收入范围，这可能是其未来几个月股价的积极催化剂，因此仍然看好ASML。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day<blockquote>ASML：强劲的势头应该会在即将到来的投资者日带来更高的收入预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day<blockquote>ASML：强劲的势头应该会在即将到来的投资者日带来更高的收入预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 10:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>ASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program.</li> <li>My medium-term expectations for EUV sales were confirmed by the company, which means that ASML will certainly raise its 2025 revenue estimates at its upcoming investor day.</li> <li>The stock has reached consecutive new all-time highs in recent months, but there is still upside in the short term.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML最近公布的2021年第二季度收益相当不错，订单量也令人印象深刻，还宣布了新的股票回购计划。</li><li>我对EUV销售的中期预期得到了该公司的证实，这意味着ASML肯定会在即将到来的投资者日上调2025年的收入预期。</li><li>该股近几个月连续创出历史新高，但短期仍有上行空间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>ASMLNV</b>(ASML) continues to be one of the best semiconductor stocks for long-term investors and the upcoming investor day can be an important catalyst for a higher share price.</p><p><blockquote><b>ASMLNV</b>（ASML）仍然是长期投资者最好的半导体股票之一，即将到来的投资者日可能是股价上涨的重要催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> I have been bullish on ASML since my first article was published on the company last March, even though I’ve taken some profits recently because this stock was my largest holding and I wanted to diversify my portfolio a little bit.</p><p><blockquote>自从去年3月发表第一篇关于ASML的文章以来，我一直看好该公司，尽管我最近获利了结，因为这只股票是我最大的持股，我想稍微分散一下我的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the company has reported earnings related to Q2 2021, that continued to show a great operating performance, and my growth expectations were upgraded due to bullish comments from the company.</p><p><blockquote>此后，该公司公布了与2021年第二季度相关的收益，继续显示出良好的经营业绩，由于该公司的看涨评论，我的增长预期被上调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q2 2021, ASML reported strong revenue and earnings growth, showing that its operating momentum continues to be quite strong. Its revenues increased by 21% YoY to €4 billion, which was slightly below estimates, while its net income was around €1 billion and EPS was €2.52 (+41% YoY), ahead of sell-side expectations.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度，ASML报告了强劲的收入和盈利增长，表明其运营势头继续相当强劲。其收入同比增长21%至40亿欧元，略低于预期，而净利润约为10亿欧元，每股收益为2.52欧元（同比增长41%），超出卖方预期。</blockquote></p><p> During the quarter, ASML’s net systems sales amounted to €2.9 billion, while its Installed Base Management sales were €1.1 billion. This revenue from Installed Based Management was above the company’s guidance of around €900 million and is justified by the current situation in the semiconductor industry (the chip shortage) that is pushing customers to software upgrades to improve productivity of the systems.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，ASML的净系统销售额为29亿欧元，而其安装基地管理销售额为11亿欧元。来自安装管理的收入高于该公司约9亿欧元的指导，并且半导体行业的当前形势（芯片短缺）促使客户进行软件升级以提高系统生产力，这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> In this last quarter, ASML has recognized revenue fornineEUV units, compared tosevenunits in the previous quarter, even though it has delivered 10 units to customers and will recognize revenue for the remaining unit in the next quarter. EUV revenue represented 45% of its system sales in the quarter, compared to 36% in the previous quarter, and shows that EUV should be its major growth source in the next few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>在上个季度，ASML已确认了9台EUV设备的收入，而上一季度为7台，尽管它已向客户交付了10台设备，并将在下个季度确认剩余设备的收入。EUV收入占本季度系统销售额的45%，而上一季度为36%，这表明EUV应该是其未来几个季度的主要增长来源。</blockquote></p><p> At this pace, ASML should increase the number of EUV units delivered in 2020 compared to the previous year (it delivered 31 EUV units), but it may miss my expectation of about 38 units delivered this year if deliveries do not ramp a little bit up in the next two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>按照这个速度，ASML应该会比上一年增加2020年交付的EUV单元数量（交付了31个EUV单元），但如果交付量不增加一点，它可能会达不到我今年交付约38个单元的预期。接下来的两个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a48a69a3ba61e82df997470af977ae5\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML’s gross margin of 50.9% was above its prior guidance, mainly due to software upgrades that weren’t expected. Its gross margin outlook for the full year is between 51-52%, compared to 48.6% reported in 2020, another support for earnings growth in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的毛利率为50.9%，高于之前的指引，主要是由于软件升级出乎意料。其全年毛利率预期在51-52%之间，而2020年报告的毛利率为48.6%，这是未来几个季度盈利增长的另一个支撑。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its net bookings, they were close to €8.3 billion, of which €4.9 billion is related to EUV systems, which is a reflection of the strong demand that currently exists in the semiconductor industry. This represents a great increase in bookings compared to the previous quarter (€4.7 billion in Q1), which is not totally surprising considering the recent announcements by its major customers <b>TSMC</b>(TSM) and <b>Intel</b>(INTC) of new factories and increased capex plans for the next couple of years, of which lithography machines are critical elements.</p><p><blockquote>关于其净预订量，接近83亿欧元，其中49亿欧元与EUV系统相关，这反映了半导体行业目前存在的强劲需求。与上一季度（第一季度为47亿欧元）相比，这意味着预订量大幅增长，考虑到其主要客户最近的公告，这并不完全令人惊讶<b>台积电</b>（TSM）和<b>英特尔</b>（INTC）的新工厂和未来几年增加的资本支出计划，其中光刻机是关键要素。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that, while the majority of orders for EUV units come from Logic customers, this quarter ASML had the greatest order intake from Memory customers, most likely from <b>Micron Technology</b>(MU) and <b>SK Hynix</b>(OTC:HXSCF), which is important to diversify its customer base that still is relatively concentrated regarding EUV units. Moreover, investors should also be aware that ASML is not selling EUV units in China, which could represent another growth source in the future if, eventually, the U.S.-China political relationships improve, even though I think that is unlikely at this stage.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，虽然EUV单元的大部分订单来自逻辑客户，但本季度ASML从内存客户那里获得的订单最多，很可能来自<b>美光科技</b>(MU)和<b>SK海力士</b>（场外交易代码：HXSCF），这对于实现其客户群多元化非常重要，该客户群仍然相对集中在EUV设备上。此外，投资者还应该意识到，ASML没有在中国销售EUV设备，如果美中政治关系最终改善，这可能是未来的另一个增长来源，尽管我认为现阶段不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, the company raised its 2021 guidance and now expects net revenue growth of about 35% (previous expectations were for 30% annual revenue growth) and a gross margin between 51-52%. ASML has also guided for EUV revenue growth of about 35% YoY, which corresponds to some 39-40 units, thus the company is expecting to deliver a higher number of units in the second half of the year than in the previous six months, justified by its push to improve its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，该公司上调了2021年指引，目前预计净收入增长约35%（此前预期年收入增长30%），毛利率在51-52%之间。ASML还预计EUV收入同比增长约35%，相当于约39-40台，因此该公司预计下半年交付的单位数量将高于前六个月，这是合理的其推动提高制造和供应链能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As I’ve discussed in a previous article, ASML was somewhat constrained to grow its EUV production and has made some efforts to increase production in the coming years. This was confirmed in the earnings call, with the company saying that it expects to deliver some 55 units in 2022, growing to over 60 units in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在上一篇文章中所讨论的，ASML在增加EUV产量方面受到一定限制，并在未来几年做出了一些努力来增加产量。这一点在财报看涨期权中得到了证实，该公司表示，预计2022年交付约55台，2023年将增长到60多台。</blockquote></p><p> I’ve forecasted in that previous analysis that ASML would grow its EUV sales by aroundfiveunits per year after 2022 and reach unit sales of around 70 units by 2025. This now seems to be a conservative estimate and ASML may easily beat my expectations of 70 units and around €11 billion in revenue from EUV by 2025, as demand for its systems is clearly very strong right now.</p><p><blockquote>我在之前的分析中预测，ASML的EUV销量将在2022年之后每年增长约5台，到2025年销量将达到约70台。这现在似乎是一个保守的估计，ASML可能会轻松超出我的预期，即到2025年，EUV的70台和约110亿欧元的收入，因为目前对其系统的需求显然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed697ade2047cb8381d563726e9a0864\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML and author’s calculations.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML和作者的计算。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Returns & Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本回报和投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> Beyond strong growth and profitability, another positive factor for a higher share price has been its capital return policy, given that ASML has a very good history both through dividends and share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>除了强劲的增长和盈利能力之外，股价上涨的另一个积极因素是其资本回报政策，因为ASML在股息和股票回购方面都有着非常良好的历史。</blockquote></p><p> This trend is not expected to change much over the long term and was reinforced recently. Indeed, as I’ve predicted in a previous article, the company increased its share buyback program to €9 billion, to be completed by the end of 2023, substituting immediately the previous program.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这一趋势预计不会发生太大变化，并且最近得到了加强。事实上，正如我在上一篇文章中预测的那样，该公司将其股票回购计划增加至90亿欧元，将于2023年底完成，立即取代之前的计划。</blockquote></p><p> This is a strong increase from its previous share buyback program of €6 billion that was to be completed this year (ASML completed €5.2 billion of this program), showing that ASML has a solid financial position that enables it to invest in the future of its business through R&D and capex, but also return significant amounts of capital to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>这比其之前将于今年完成的60亿欧元股票回购计划（ASML完成了该计划中的52亿欧元）有了强劲的增长，表明ASML拥有稳健的财务状况，使其能够通过研发和资本支出投资其业务的未来，同时也向股东返还大量资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84129202a0103e8396a273c5740e57a1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML is delivering impressive results and returning even more capital to shareholders, leading its stock to reach consecutive new all-time highs during the past few months. Despite this, there is still upside and this may become more evident in its upcoming investor day, where the company will update investors about its future scenarios regarding revenues and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>ASML取得了令人印象深刻的业绩，并向股东返还了更多资本，导致其股价在过去几个月连续创下历史新高。尽管如此，仍有上涨空间，这一点可能会在即将到来的投资者日变得更加明显，届时该公司将向投资者通报其未来收入和盈利的最新情况。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, ASML has scheduled an investor day on 29 September 2021, where it will certainly raise its medium-term targets compared to the targets set in 2018. Its current revenue target is for a range of €15-24 billion in annual revenues by 2025, which is clearly outdated, considering that ASML should reach revenues of about €19 billion this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，ASML已安排在2021年9月29日举行投资者日，与2018年设定的目标相比，该公司肯定会提高中期目标。其目前的收入目标是到2025年年收入达到15-240亿欧元，考虑到ASML今年的收入应达到约190亿欧元，这显然已经过时了。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve said in previous articles, I expect ASML to increase its revenue target to a medium-level of around €30 billion or higher by 2025, a much higher level than current sell-side consensus' expectation in 2025 (€26.1 billion). Therefore, this investor day could be another catalyst for a higher share price in the short term, as sell-side estimates will most likely increase following this event. This could be an important driver for a higher share price in the next 3-6 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中所说，我预计ASML到2025年将其收入目标提高到300亿欧元左右或更高的中等水平，远高于当前卖方对2025年的共识预期（261亿欧元）。因此，这个投资者日可能是短期内股价上涨的另一个催化剂，因为在此事件之后，卖方的预期很可能会增加。这可能是未来3-6个月股价上涨的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML has reported another good quarter with the strong order intake being the most impressive factor in my opinion. This is clearly a very bullish factor for ASML’s business in the next few years and a good support for higher revenue expectations in the medium term. I expect ASML to increase its revenue range at its upcoming investor day, which may be a positive catalyst for its share price in the coming months, and therefore remain bullish on ASML.</p><p><blockquote>ASML报告了又一个良好的季度，在我看来，强劲的订单量是最令人印象深刻的因素。这显然是对ASML未来几年业务非常看涨的因素，也是对中期更高收入预期的良好支撑。我预计ASML将在即将到来的投资者日提高其收入范围，这可能是其未来几个月股价的积极催化剂，因此仍然看好ASML。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444504-asml-strong-momentum-should-lead-to-higher-revenue-expectations-at-upcoming-investor-day\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444504-asml-strong-momentum-should-lead-to-higher-revenue-expectations-at-upcoming-investor-day","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123853854","content_text":"Summary\n\nASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program.\nMy medium-term expectations for EUV sales were confirmed by the company, which means that ASML will certainly raise its 2025 revenue estimates at its upcoming investor day.\nThe stock has reached consecutive new all-time highs in recent months, but there is still upside in the short term.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nASMLNV(ASML) continues to be one of the best semiconductor stocks for long-term investors and the upcoming investor day can be an important catalyst for a higher share price.\nI have been bullish on ASML since my first article was published on the company last March, even though I’ve taken some profits recently because this stock was my largest holding and I wanted to diversify my portfolio a little bit.\nSince then, the company has reported earnings related to Q2 2021, that continued to show a great operating performance, and my growth expectations were upgraded due to bullish comments from the company.\nRecent Earnings\nIn Q2 2021, ASML reported strong revenue and earnings growth, showing that its operating momentum continues to be quite strong. Its revenues increased by 21% YoY to €4 billion, which was slightly below estimates, while its net income was around €1 billion and EPS was €2.52 (+41% YoY), ahead of sell-side expectations.\nDuring the quarter, ASML’s net systems sales amounted to €2.9 billion, while its Installed Base Management sales were €1.1 billion. This revenue from Installed Based Management was above the company’s guidance of around €900 million and is justified by the current situation in the semiconductor industry (the chip shortage) that is pushing customers to software upgrades to improve productivity of the systems.\nIn this last quarter, ASML has recognized revenue fornineEUV units, compared tosevenunits in the previous quarter, even though it has delivered 10 units to customers and will recognize revenue for the remaining unit in the next quarter. EUV revenue represented 45% of its system sales in the quarter, compared to 36% in the previous quarter, and shows that EUV should be its major growth source in the next few quarters.\nAt this pace, ASML should increase the number of EUV units delivered in 2020 compared to the previous year (it delivered 31 EUV units), but it may miss my expectation of about 38 units delivered this year if deliveries do not ramp a little bit up in the next two quarters.\nSource: ASML.\nASML’s gross margin of 50.9% was above its prior guidance, mainly due to software upgrades that weren’t expected. Its gross margin outlook for the full year is between 51-52%, compared to 48.6% reported in 2020, another support for earnings growth in coming quarters.\nRegarding its net bookings, they were close to €8.3 billion, of which €4.9 billion is related to EUV systems, which is a reflection of the strong demand that currently exists in the semiconductor industry. This represents a great increase in bookings compared to the previous quarter (€4.7 billion in Q1), which is not totally surprising considering the recent announcements by its major customers TSMC(TSM) and Intel(INTC) of new factories and increased capex plans for the next couple of years, of which lithography machines are critical elements.\nBeyond that, while the majority of orders for EUV units come from Logic customers, this quarter ASML had the greatest order intake from Memory customers, most likely from Micron Technology(MU) and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCF), which is important to diversify its customer base that still is relatively concentrated regarding EUV units. Moreover, investors should also be aware that ASML is not selling EUV units in China, which could represent another growth source in the future if, eventually, the U.S.-China political relationships improve, even though I think that is unlikely at this stage.\nGoing forward, the company raised its 2021 guidance and now expects net revenue growth of about 35% (previous expectations were for 30% annual revenue growth) and a gross margin between 51-52%. ASML has also guided for EUV revenue growth of about 35% YoY, which corresponds to some 39-40 units, thus the company is expecting to deliver a higher number of units in the second half of the year than in the previous six months, justified by its push to improve its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities.\nAs I’ve discussed in a previous article, ASML was somewhat constrained to grow its EUV production and has made some efforts to increase production in the coming years. This was confirmed in the earnings call, with the company saying that it expects to deliver some 55 units in 2022, growing to over 60 units in 2023.\nI’ve forecasted in that previous analysis that ASML would grow its EUV sales by aroundfiveunits per year after 2022 and reach unit sales of around 70 units by 2025. This now seems to be a conservative estimate and ASML may easily beat my expectations of 70 units and around €11 billion in revenue from EUV by 2025, as demand for its systems is clearly very strong right now.\nSource: ASML and author’s calculations.\nCapital Returns & Investor Day\nBeyond strong growth and profitability, another positive factor for a higher share price has been its capital return policy, given that ASML has a very good history both through dividends and share buybacks.\nThis trend is not expected to change much over the long term and was reinforced recently. Indeed, as I’ve predicted in a previous article, the company increased its share buyback program to €9 billion, to be completed by the end of 2023, substituting immediately the previous program.\nThis is a strong increase from its previous share buyback program of €6 billion that was to be completed this year (ASML completed €5.2 billion of this program), showing that ASML has a solid financial position that enables it to invest in the future of its business through R&D and capex, but also return significant amounts of capital to shareholders.\nSource: ASML.\nASML is delivering impressive results and returning even more capital to shareholders, leading its stock to reach consecutive new all-time highs during the past few months. Despite this, there is still upside and this may become more evident in its upcoming investor day, where the company will update investors about its future scenarios regarding revenues and earnings.\nIndeed, ASML has scheduled an investor day on 29 September 2021, where it will certainly raise its medium-term targets compared to the targets set in 2018. Its current revenue target is for a range of €15-24 billion in annual revenues by 2025, which is clearly outdated, considering that ASML should reach revenues of about €19 billion this year.\nAs I’ve said in previous articles, I expect ASML to increase its revenue target to a medium-level of around €30 billion or higher by 2025, a much higher level than current sell-side consensus' expectation in 2025 (€26.1 billion). Therefore, this investor day could be another catalyst for a higher share price in the short term, as sell-side estimates will most likely increase following this event. This could be an important driver for a higher share price in the next 3-6 months.\nConclusion\nASML has reported another good quarter with the strong order intake being the most impressive factor in my opinion. This is clearly a very bullish factor for ASML’s business in the next few years and a good support for higher revenue expectations in the medium term. I expect ASML to increase its revenue range at its upcoming investor day, which may be a positive catalyst for its share price in the coming months, and therefore remain bullish on ASML.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":893921827,"gmtCreate":1628231036869,"gmtModify":1633752381205,"author":{"id":"4091249718205820","authorId":"4091249718205820","name":"Ew_SG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091249718205820","idStr":"4091249718205820"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?","listText":"What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?","text":"What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893921827","repostId":"1123853854","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123853854","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628045254,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123853854?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 10:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day<blockquote>ASML：强劲的势头应该会在即将到来的投资者日带来更高的收入预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123853854","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was im","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>ASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program.</li> <li>My medium-term expectations for EUV sales were confirmed by the company, which means that ASML will certainly raise its 2025 revenue estimates at its upcoming investor day.</li> <li>The stock has reached consecutive new all-time highs in recent months, but there is still upside in the short term.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML最近公布的2021年第二季度收益相当不错，订单量也令人印象深刻，还宣布了新的股票回购计划。</li><li>我对EUV销售的中期预期得到了该公司的证实，这意味着ASML肯定会在即将到来的投资者日上调2025年的收入预期。</li><li>该股近几个月连续创出历史新高，但短期仍有上行空间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>ASMLNV</b>(ASML) continues to be one of the best semiconductor stocks for long-term investors and the upcoming investor day can be an important catalyst for a higher share price.</p><p><blockquote><b>ASMLNV</b>（ASML）仍然是长期投资者最好的半导体股票之一，即将到来的投资者日可能是股价上涨的重要催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> I have been bullish on ASML since my first article was published on the company last March, even though I’ve taken some profits recently because this stock was my largest holding and I wanted to diversify my portfolio a little bit.</p><p><blockquote>自从去年3月发表第一篇关于ASML的文章以来，我一直看好该公司，尽管我最近获利了结，因为这只股票是我最大的持股，我想稍微分散一下我的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the company has reported earnings related to Q2 2021, that continued to show a great operating performance, and my growth expectations were upgraded due to bullish comments from the company.</p><p><blockquote>此后，该公司公布了与2021年第二季度相关的收益，继续显示出良好的经营业绩，由于该公司的看涨评论，我的增长预期被上调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q2 2021, ASML reported strong revenue and earnings growth, showing that its operating momentum continues to be quite strong. Its revenues increased by 21% YoY to €4 billion, which was slightly below estimates, while its net income was around €1 billion and EPS was €2.52 (+41% YoY), ahead of sell-side expectations.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度，ASML报告了强劲的收入和盈利增长，表明其运营势头继续相当强劲。其收入同比增长21%至40亿欧元，略低于预期，而净利润约为10亿欧元，每股收益为2.52欧元（同比增长41%），超出卖方预期。</blockquote></p><p> During the quarter, ASML’s net systems sales amounted to €2.9 billion, while its Installed Base Management sales were €1.1 billion. This revenue from Installed Based Management was above the company’s guidance of around €900 million and is justified by the current situation in the semiconductor industry (the chip shortage) that is pushing customers to software upgrades to improve productivity of the systems.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，ASML的净系统销售额为29亿欧元，而其安装基地管理销售额为11亿欧元。来自安装管理的收入高于该公司约9亿欧元的指导，并且半导体行业的当前形势（芯片短缺）促使客户进行软件升级以提高系统生产力，这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> In this last quarter, ASML has recognized revenue fornineEUV units, compared tosevenunits in the previous quarter, even though it has delivered 10 units to customers and will recognize revenue for the remaining unit in the next quarter. EUV revenue represented 45% of its system sales in the quarter, compared to 36% in the previous quarter, and shows that EUV should be its major growth source in the next few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>在上个季度，ASML已确认了9台EUV设备的收入，而上一季度为7台，尽管它已向客户交付了10台设备，并将在下个季度确认剩余设备的收入。EUV收入占本季度系统销售额的45%，而上一季度为36%，这表明EUV应该是其未来几个季度的主要增长来源。</blockquote></p><p> At this pace, ASML should increase the number of EUV units delivered in 2020 compared to the previous year (it delivered 31 EUV units), but it may miss my expectation of about 38 units delivered this year if deliveries do not ramp a little bit up in the next two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>按照这个速度，ASML应该会比上一年增加2020年交付的EUV单元数量（交付了31个EUV单元），但如果交付量不增加一点，它可能会达不到我今年交付约38个单元的预期。接下来的两个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a48a69a3ba61e82df997470af977ae5\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML’s gross margin of 50.9% was above its prior guidance, mainly due to software upgrades that weren’t expected. Its gross margin outlook for the full year is between 51-52%, compared to 48.6% reported in 2020, another support for earnings growth in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的毛利率为50.9%，高于之前的指引，主要是由于软件升级出乎意料。其全年毛利率预期在51-52%之间，而2020年报告的毛利率为48.6%，这是未来几个季度盈利增长的另一个支撑。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its net bookings, they were close to €8.3 billion, of which €4.9 billion is related to EUV systems, which is a reflection of the strong demand that currently exists in the semiconductor industry. This represents a great increase in bookings compared to the previous quarter (€4.7 billion in Q1), which is not totally surprising considering the recent announcements by its major customers <b>TSMC</b>(TSM) and <b>Intel</b>(INTC) of new factories and increased capex plans for the next couple of years, of which lithography machines are critical elements.</p><p><blockquote>关于其净预订量，接近83亿欧元，其中49亿欧元与EUV系统相关，这反映了半导体行业目前存在的强劲需求。与上一季度（第一季度为47亿欧元）相比，这意味着预订量大幅增长，考虑到其主要客户最近的公告，这并不完全令人惊讶<b>台积电</b>（TSM）和<b>英特尔</b>（INTC）的新工厂和未来几年增加的资本支出计划，其中光刻机是关键要素。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that, while the majority of orders for EUV units come from Logic customers, this quarter ASML had the greatest order intake from Memory customers, most likely from <b>Micron Technology</b>(MU) and <b>SK Hynix</b>(OTC:HXSCF), which is important to diversify its customer base that still is relatively concentrated regarding EUV units. Moreover, investors should also be aware that ASML is not selling EUV units in China, which could represent another growth source in the future if, eventually, the U.S.-China political relationships improve, even though I think that is unlikely at this stage.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，虽然EUV单元的大部分订单来自逻辑客户，但本季度ASML从内存客户那里获得的订单最多，很可能来自<b>美光科技</b>(MU)和<b>SK海力士</b>（场外交易代码：HXSCF），这对于实现其客户群多元化非常重要，该客户群仍然相对集中在EUV设备上。此外，投资者还应该意识到，ASML没有在中国销售EUV设备，如果美中政治关系最终改善，这可能是未来的另一个增长来源，尽管我认为现阶段不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, the company raised its 2021 guidance and now expects net revenue growth of about 35% (previous expectations were for 30% annual revenue growth) and a gross margin between 51-52%. ASML has also guided for EUV revenue growth of about 35% YoY, which corresponds to some 39-40 units, thus the company is expecting to deliver a higher number of units in the second half of the year than in the previous six months, justified by its push to improve its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，该公司上调了2021年指引，目前预计净收入增长约35%（此前预期年收入增长30%），毛利率在51-52%之间。ASML还预计EUV收入同比增长约35%，相当于约39-40台，因此该公司预计下半年交付的单位数量将高于前六个月，这是合理的其推动提高制造和供应链能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As I’ve discussed in a previous article, ASML was somewhat constrained to grow its EUV production and has made some efforts to increase production in the coming years. This was confirmed in the earnings call, with the company saying that it expects to deliver some 55 units in 2022, growing to over 60 units in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在上一篇文章中所讨论的，ASML在增加EUV产量方面受到一定限制，并在未来几年做出了一些努力来增加产量。这一点在财报看涨期权中得到了证实，该公司表示，预计2022年交付约55台，2023年将增长到60多台。</blockquote></p><p> I’ve forecasted in that previous analysis that ASML would grow its EUV sales by aroundfiveunits per year after 2022 and reach unit sales of around 70 units by 2025. This now seems to be a conservative estimate and ASML may easily beat my expectations of 70 units and around €11 billion in revenue from EUV by 2025, as demand for its systems is clearly very strong right now.</p><p><blockquote>我在之前的分析中预测，ASML的EUV销量将在2022年之后每年增长约5台，到2025年销量将达到约70台。这现在似乎是一个保守的估计，ASML可能会轻松超出我的预期，即到2025年，EUV的70台和约110亿欧元的收入，因为目前对其系统的需求显然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed697ade2047cb8381d563726e9a0864\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML and author’s calculations.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML和作者的计算。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Returns & Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本回报和投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> Beyond strong growth and profitability, another positive factor for a higher share price has been its capital return policy, given that ASML has a very good history both through dividends and share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>除了强劲的增长和盈利能力之外，股价上涨的另一个积极因素是其资本回报政策，因为ASML在股息和股票回购方面都有着非常良好的历史。</blockquote></p><p> This trend is not expected to change much over the long term and was reinforced recently. Indeed, as I’ve predicted in a previous article, the company increased its share buyback program to €9 billion, to be completed by the end of 2023, substituting immediately the previous program.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这一趋势预计不会发生太大变化，并且最近得到了加强。事实上，正如我在上一篇文章中预测的那样，该公司将其股票回购计划增加至90亿欧元，将于2023年底完成，立即取代之前的计划。</blockquote></p><p> This is a strong increase from its previous share buyback program of €6 billion that was to be completed this year (ASML completed €5.2 billion of this program), showing that ASML has a solid financial position that enables it to invest in the future of its business through R&D and capex, but also return significant amounts of capital to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>这比其之前将于今年完成的60亿欧元股票回购计划（ASML完成了该计划中的52亿欧元）有了强劲的增长，表明ASML拥有稳健的财务状况，使其能够通过研发和资本支出投资其业务的未来，同时也向股东返还大量资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84129202a0103e8396a273c5740e57a1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML is delivering impressive results and returning even more capital to shareholders, leading its stock to reach consecutive new all-time highs during the past few months. Despite this, there is still upside and this may become more evident in its upcoming investor day, where the company will update investors about its future scenarios regarding revenues and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>ASML取得了令人印象深刻的业绩，并向股东返还了更多资本，导致其股价在过去几个月连续创下历史新高。尽管如此，仍有上涨空间，这一点可能会在即将到来的投资者日变得更加明显，届时该公司将向投资者通报其未来收入和盈利的最新情况。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, ASML has scheduled an investor day on 29 September 2021, where it will certainly raise its medium-term targets compared to the targets set in 2018. Its current revenue target is for a range of €15-24 billion in annual revenues by 2025, which is clearly outdated, considering that ASML should reach revenues of about €19 billion this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，ASML已安排在2021年9月29日举行投资者日，与2018年设定的目标相比，该公司肯定会提高中期目标。其目前的收入目标是到2025年年收入达到15-240亿欧元，考虑到ASML今年的收入应达到约190亿欧元，这显然已经过时了。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve said in previous articles, I expect ASML to increase its revenue target to a medium-level of around €30 billion or higher by 2025, a much higher level than current sell-side consensus' expectation in 2025 (€26.1 billion). Therefore, this investor day could be another catalyst for a higher share price in the short term, as sell-side estimates will most likely increase following this event. This could be an important driver for a higher share price in the next 3-6 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中所说，我预计ASML到2025年将其收入目标提高到300亿欧元左右或更高的中等水平，远高于当前卖方对2025年的共识预期（261亿欧元）。因此，这个投资者日可能是短期内股价上涨的另一个催化剂，因为在此事件之后，卖方的预期很可能会增加。这可能是未来3-6个月股价上涨的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML has reported another good quarter with the strong order intake being the most impressive factor in my opinion. This is clearly a very bullish factor for ASML’s business in the next few years and a good support for higher revenue expectations in the medium term. I expect ASML to increase its revenue range at its upcoming investor day, which may be a positive catalyst for its share price in the coming months, and therefore remain bullish on ASML.</p><p><blockquote>ASML报告了又一个良好的季度，在我看来，强劲的订单量是最令人印象深刻的因素。这显然是对ASML未来几年业务非常看涨的因素，也是对中期更高收入预期的良好支撑。我预计ASML将在即将到来的投资者日提高其收入范围，这可能是其未来几个月股价的积极催化剂，因此仍然看好ASML。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day<blockquote>ASML：强劲的势头应该会在即将到来的投资者日带来更高的收入预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day<blockquote>ASML：强劲的势头应该会在即将到来的投资者日带来更高的收入预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 10:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>ASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program.</li> <li>My medium-term expectations for EUV sales were confirmed by the company, which means that ASML will certainly raise its 2025 revenue estimates at its upcoming investor day.</li> <li>The stock has reached consecutive new all-time highs in recent months, but there is still upside in the short term.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML最近公布的2021年第二季度收益相当不错，订单量也令人印象深刻，还宣布了新的股票回购计划。</li><li>我对EUV销售的中期预期得到了该公司的证实，这意味着ASML肯定会在即将到来的投资者日上调2025年的收入预期。</li><li>该股近几个月连续创出历史新高，但短期仍有上行空间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>ASMLNV</b>(ASML) continues to be one of the best semiconductor stocks for long-term investors and the upcoming investor day can be an important catalyst for a higher share price.</p><p><blockquote><b>ASMLNV</b>（ASML）仍然是长期投资者最好的半导体股票之一，即将到来的投资者日可能是股价上涨的重要催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> I have been bullish on ASML since my first article was published on the company last March, even though I’ve taken some profits recently because this stock was my largest holding and I wanted to diversify my portfolio a little bit.</p><p><blockquote>自从去年3月发表第一篇关于ASML的文章以来，我一直看好该公司，尽管我最近获利了结，因为这只股票是我最大的持股，我想稍微分散一下我的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the company has reported earnings related to Q2 2021, that continued to show a great operating performance, and my growth expectations were upgraded due to bullish comments from the company.</p><p><blockquote>此后，该公司公布了与2021年第二季度相关的收益，继续显示出良好的经营业绩，由于该公司的看涨评论，我的增长预期被上调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q2 2021, ASML reported strong revenue and earnings growth, showing that its operating momentum continues to be quite strong. Its revenues increased by 21% YoY to €4 billion, which was slightly below estimates, while its net income was around €1 billion and EPS was €2.52 (+41% YoY), ahead of sell-side expectations.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度，ASML报告了强劲的收入和盈利增长，表明其运营势头继续相当强劲。其收入同比增长21%至40亿欧元，略低于预期，而净利润约为10亿欧元，每股收益为2.52欧元（同比增长41%），超出卖方预期。</blockquote></p><p> During the quarter, ASML’s net systems sales amounted to €2.9 billion, while its Installed Base Management sales were €1.1 billion. This revenue from Installed Based Management was above the company’s guidance of around €900 million and is justified by the current situation in the semiconductor industry (the chip shortage) that is pushing customers to software upgrades to improve productivity of the systems.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，ASML的净系统销售额为29亿欧元，而其安装基地管理销售额为11亿欧元。来自安装管理的收入高于该公司约9亿欧元的指导，并且半导体行业的当前形势（芯片短缺）促使客户进行软件升级以提高系统生产力，这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> In this last quarter, ASML has recognized revenue fornineEUV units, compared tosevenunits in the previous quarter, even though it has delivered 10 units to customers and will recognize revenue for the remaining unit in the next quarter. EUV revenue represented 45% of its system sales in the quarter, compared to 36% in the previous quarter, and shows that EUV should be its major growth source in the next few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>在上个季度，ASML已确认了9台EUV设备的收入，而上一季度为7台，尽管它已向客户交付了10台设备，并将在下个季度确认剩余设备的收入。EUV收入占本季度系统销售额的45%，而上一季度为36%，这表明EUV应该是其未来几个季度的主要增长来源。</blockquote></p><p> At this pace, ASML should increase the number of EUV units delivered in 2020 compared to the previous year (it delivered 31 EUV units), but it may miss my expectation of about 38 units delivered this year if deliveries do not ramp a little bit up in the next two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>按照这个速度，ASML应该会比上一年增加2020年交付的EUV单元数量（交付了31个EUV单元），但如果交付量不增加一点，它可能会达不到我今年交付约38个单元的预期。接下来的两个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a48a69a3ba61e82df997470af977ae5\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML’s gross margin of 50.9% was above its prior guidance, mainly due to software upgrades that weren’t expected. Its gross margin outlook for the full year is between 51-52%, compared to 48.6% reported in 2020, another support for earnings growth in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的毛利率为50.9%，高于之前的指引，主要是由于软件升级出乎意料。其全年毛利率预期在51-52%之间，而2020年报告的毛利率为48.6%，这是未来几个季度盈利增长的另一个支撑。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its net bookings, they were close to €8.3 billion, of which €4.9 billion is related to EUV systems, which is a reflection of the strong demand that currently exists in the semiconductor industry. This represents a great increase in bookings compared to the previous quarter (€4.7 billion in Q1), which is not totally surprising considering the recent announcements by its major customers <b>TSMC</b>(TSM) and <b>Intel</b>(INTC) of new factories and increased capex plans for the next couple of years, of which lithography machines are critical elements.</p><p><blockquote>关于其净预订量，接近83亿欧元，其中49亿欧元与EUV系统相关，这反映了半导体行业目前存在的强劲需求。与上一季度（第一季度为47亿欧元）相比，这意味着预订量大幅增长，考虑到其主要客户最近的公告，这并不完全令人惊讶<b>台积电</b>（TSM）和<b>英特尔</b>（INTC）的新工厂和未来几年增加的资本支出计划，其中光刻机是关键要素。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that, while the majority of orders for EUV units come from Logic customers, this quarter ASML had the greatest order intake from Memory customers, most likely from <b>Micron Technology</b>(MU) and <b>SK Hynix</b>(OTC:HXSCF), which is important to diversify its customer base that still is relatively concentrated regarding EUV units. Moreover, investors should also be aware that ASML is not selling EUV units in China, which could represent another growth source in the future if, eventually, the U.S.-China political relationships improve, even though I think that is unlikely at this stage.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，虽然EUV单元的大部分订单来自逻辑客户，但本季度ASML从内存客户那里获得的订单最多，很可能来自<b>美光科技</b>(MU)和<b>SK海力士</b>（场外交易代码：HXSCF），这对于实现其客户群多元化非常重要，该客户群仍然相对集中在EUV设备上。此外，投资者还应该意识到，ASML没有在中国销售EUV设备，如果美中政治关系最终改善，这可能是未来的另一个增长来源，尽管我认为现阶段不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, the company raised its 2021 guidance and now expects net revenue growth of about 35% (previous expectations were for 30% annual revenue growth) and a gross margin between 51-52%. ASML has also guided for EUV revenue growth of about 35% YoY, which corresponds to some 39-40 units, thus the company is expecting to deliver a higher number of units in the second half of the year than in the previous six months, justified by its push to improve its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，该公司上调了2021年指引，目前预计净收入增长约35%（此前预期年收入增长30%），毛利率在51-52%之间。ASML还预计EUV收入同比增长约35%，相当于约39-40台，因此该公司预计下半年交付的单位数量将高于前六个月，这是合理的其推动提高制造和供应链能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As I’ve discussed in a previous article, ASML was somewhat constrained to grow its EUV production and has made some efforts to increase production in the coming years. This was confirmed in the earnings call, with the company saying that it expects to deliver some 55 units in 2022, growing to over 60 units in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在上一篇文章中所讨论的，ASML在增加EUV产量方面受到一定限制，并在未来几年做出了一些努力来增加产量。这一点在财报看涨期权中得到了证实，该公司表示，预计2022年交付约55台，2023年将增长到60多台。</blockquote></p><p> I’ve forecasted in that previous analysis that ASML would grow its EUV sales by aroundfiveunits per year after 2022 and reach unit sales of around 70 units by 2025. This now seems to be a conservative estimate and ASML may easily beat my expectations of 70 units and around €11 billion in revenue from EUV by 2025, as demand for its systems is clearly very strong right now.</p><p><blockquote>我在之前的分析中预测，ASML的EUV销量将在2022年之后每年增长约5台，到2025年销量将达到约70台。这现在似乎是一个保守的估计，ASML可能会轻松超出我的预期，即到2025年，EUV的70台和约110亿欧元的收入，因为目前对其系统的需求显然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed697ade2047cb8381d563726e9a0864\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML and author’s calculations.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML和作者的计算。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Returns & Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本回报和投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> Beyond strong growth and profitability, another positive factor for a higher share price has been its capital return policy, given that ASML has a very good history both through dividends and share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>除了强劲的增长和盈利能力之外，股价上涨的另一个积极因素是其资本回报政策，因为ASML在股息和股票回购方面都有着非常良好的历史。</blockquote></p><p> This trend is not expected to change much over the long term and was reinforced recently. Indeed, as I’ve predicted in a previous article, the company increased its share buyback program to €9 billion, to be completed by the end of 2023, substituting immediately the previous program.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这一趋势预计不会发生太大变化，并且最近得到了加强。事实上，正如我在上一篇文章中预测的那样，该公司将其股票回购计划增加至90亿欧元，将于2023年底完成，立即取代之前的计划。</blockquote></p><p> This is a strong increase from its previous share buyback program of €6 billion that was to be completed this year (ASML completed €5.2 billion of this program), showing that ASML has a solid financial position that enables it to invest in the future of its business through R&D and capex, but also return significant amounts of capital to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>这比其之前将于今年完成的60亿欧元股票回购计划（ASML完成了该计划中的52亿欧元）有了强劲的增长，表明ASML拥有稳健的财务状况，使其能够通过研发和资本支出投资其业务的未来，同时也向股东返还大量资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84129202a0103e8396a273c5740e57a1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML is delivering impressive results and returning even more capital to shareholders, leading its stock to reach consecutive new all-time highs during the past few months. Despite this, there is still upside and this may become more evident in its upcoming investor day, where the company will update investors about its future scenarios regarding revenues and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>ASML取得了令人印象深刻的业绩，并向股东返还了更多资本，导致其股价在过去几个月连续创下历史新高。尽管如此，仍有上涨空间，这一点可能会在即将到来的投资者日变得更加明显，届时该公司将向投资者通报其未来收入和盈利的最新情况。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, ASML has scheduled an investor day on 29 September 2021, where it will certainly raise its medium-term targets compared to the targets set in 2018. Its current revenue target is for a range of €15-24 billion in annual revenues by 2025, which is clearly outdated, considering that ASML should reach revenues of about €19 billion this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，ASML已安排在2021年9月29日举行投资者日，与2018年设定的目标相比，该公司肯定会提高中期目标。其目前的收入目标是到2025年年收入达到15-240亿欧元，考虑到ASML今年的收入应达到约190亿欧元，这显然已经过时了。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve said in previous articles, I expect ASML to increase its revenue target to a medium-level of around €30 billion or higher by 2025, a much higher level than current sell-side consensus' expectation in 2025 (€26.1 billion). Therefore, this investor day could be another catalyst for a higher share price in the short term, as sell-side estimates will most likely increase following this event. This could be an important driver for a higher share price in the next 3-6 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中所说，我预计ASML到2025年将其收入目标提高到300亿欧元左右或更高的中等水平，远高于当前卖方对2025年的共识预期（261亿欧元）。因此，这个投资者日可能是短期内股价上涨的另一个催化剂，因为在此事件之后，卖方的预期很可能会增加。这可能是未来3-6个月股价上涨的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML has reported another good quarter with the strong order intake being the most impressive factor in my opinion. This is clearly a very bullish factor for ASML’s business in the next few years and a good support for higher revenue expectations in the medium term. I expect ASML to increase its revenue range at its upcoming investor day, which may be a positive catalyst for its share price in the coming months, and therefore remain bullish on ASML.</p><p><blockquote>ASML报告了又一个良好的季度，在我看来，强劲的订单量是最令人印象深刻的因素。这显然是对ASML未来几年业务非常看涨的因素，也是对中期更高收入预期的良好支撑。我预计ASML将在即将到来的投资者日提高其收入范围，这可能是其未来几个月股价的积极催化剂，因此仍然看好ASML。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444504-asml-strong-momentum-should-lead-to-higher-revenue-expectations-at-upcoming-investor-day\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444504-asml-strong-momentum-should-lead-to-higher-revenue-expectations-at-upcoming-investor-day","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123853854","content_text":"Summary\n\nASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program.\nMy medium-term expectations for EUV sales were confirmed by the company, which means that ASML will certainly raise its 2025 revenue estimates at its upcoming investor day.\nThe stock has reached consecutive new all-time highs in recent months, but there is still upside in the short term.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nASMLNV(ASML) continues to be one of the best semiconductor stocks for long-term investors and the upcoming investor day can be an important catalyst for a higher share price.\nI have been bullish on ASML since my first article was published on the company last March, even though I’ve taken some profits recently because this stock was my largest holding and I wanted to diversify my portfolio a little bit.\nSince then, the company has reported earnings related to Q2 2021, that continued to show a great operating performance, and my growth expectations were upgraded due to bullish comments from the company.\nRecent Earnings\nIn Q2 2021, ASML reported strong revenue and earnings growth, showing that its operating momentum continues to be quite strong. Its revenues increased by 21% YoY to €4 billion, which was slightly below estimates, while its net income was around €1 billion and EPS was €2.52 (+41% YoY), ahead of sell-side expectations.\nDuring the quarter, ASML’s net systems sales amounted to €2.9 billion, while its Installed Base Management sales were €1.1 billion. This revenue from Installed Based Management was above the company’s guidance of around €900 million and is justified by the current situation in the semiconductor industry (the chip shortage) that is pushing customers to software upgrades to improve productivity of the systems.\nIn this last quarter, ASML has recognized revenue fornineEUV units, compared tosevenunits in the previous quarter, even though it has delivered 10 units to customers and will recognize revenue for the remaining unit in the next quarter. EUV revenue represented 45% of its system sales in the quarter, compared to 36% in the previous quarter, and shows that EUV should be its major growth source in the next few quarters.\nAt this pace, ASML should increase the number of EUV units delivered in 2020 compared to the previous year (it delivered 31 EUV units), but it may miss my expectation of about 38 units delivered this year if deliveries do not ramp a little bit up in the next two quarters.\nSource: ASML.\nASML’s gross margin of 50.9% was above its prior guidance, mainly due to software upgrades that weren’t expected. Its gross margin outlook for the full year is between 51-52%, compared to 48.6% reported in 2020, another support for earnings growth in coming quarters.\nRegarding its net bookings, they were close to €8.3 billion, of which €4.9 billion is related to EUV systems, which is a reflection of the strong demand that currently exists in the semiconductor industry. This represents a great increase in bookings compared to the previous quarter (€4.7 billion in Q1), which is not totally surprising considering the recent announcements by its major customers TSMC(TSM) and Intel(INTC) of new factories and increased capex plans for the next couple of years, of which lithography machines are critical elements.\nBeyond that, while the majority of orders for EUV units come from Logic customers, this quarter ASML had the greatest order intake from Memory customers, most likely from Micron Technology(MU) and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCF), which is important to diversify its customer base that still is relatively concentrated regarding EUV units. Moreover, investors should also be aware that ASML is not selling EUV units in China, which could represent another growth source in the future if, eventually, the U.S.-China political relationships improve, even though I think that is unlikely at this stage.\nGoing forward, the company raised its 2021 guidance and now expects net revenue growth of about 35% (previous expectations were for 30% annual revenue growth) and a gross margin between 51-52%. ASML has also guided for EUV revenue growth of about 35% YoY, which corresponds to some 39-40 units, thus the company is expecting to deliver a higher number of units in the second half of the year than in the previous six months, justified by its push to improve its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities.\nAs I’ve discussed in a previous article, ASML was somewhat constrained to grow its EUV production and has made some efforts to increase production in the coming years. This was confirmed in the earnings call, with the company saying that it expects to deliver some 55 units in 2022, growing to over 60 units in 2023.\nI’ve forecasted in that previous analysis that ASML would grow its EUV sales by aroundfiveunits per year after 2022 and reach unit sales of around 70 units by 2025. This now seems to be a conservative estimate and ASML may easily beat my expectations of 70 units and around €11 billion in revenue from EUV by 2025, as demand for its systems is clearly very strong right now.\nSource: ASML and author’s calculations.\nCapital Returns & Investor Day\nBeyond strong growth and profitability, another positive factor for a higher share price has been its capital return policy, given that ASML has a very good history both through dividends and share buybacks.\nThis trend is not expected to change much over the long term and was reinforced recently. Indeed, as I’ve predicted in a previous article, the company increased its share buyback program to €9 billion, to be completed by the end of 2023, substituting immediately the previous program.\nThis is a strong increase from its previous share buyback program of €6 billion that was to be completed this year (ASML completed €5.2 billion of this program), showing that ASML has a solid financial position that enables it to invest in the future of its business through R&D and capex, but also return significant amounts of capital to shareholders.\nSource: ASML.\nASML is delivering impressive results and returning even more capital to shareholders, leading its stock to reach consecutive new all-time highs during the past few months. Despite this, there is still upside and this may become more evident in its upcoming investor day, where the company will update investors about its future scenarios regarding revenues and earnings.\nIndeed, ASML has scheduled an investor day on 29 September 2021, where it will certainly raise its medium-term targets compared to the targets set in 2018. Its current revenue target is for a range of €15-24 billion in annual revenues by 2025, which is clearly outdated, considering that ASML should reach revenues of about €19 billion this year.\nAs I’ve said in previous articles, I expect ASML to increase its revenue target to a medium-level of around €30 billion or higher by 2025, a much higher level than current sell-side consensus' expectation in 2025 (€26.1 billion). Therefore, this investor day could be another catalyst for a higher share price in the short term, as sell-side estimates will most likely increase following this event. This could be an important driver for a higher share price in the next 3-6 months.\nConclusion\nASML has reported another good quarter with the strong order intake being the most impressive factor in my opinion. This is clearly a very bullish factor for ASML’s business in the next few years and a good support for higher revenue expectations in the medium term. I expect ASML to increase its revenue range at its upcoming investor day, which may be a positive catalyst for its share price in the coming months, and therefore remain bullish on ASML.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
