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2022-01-07

Still jittery over the sea of red.

The tech sell-off sparked by hawkish Fed minutes is a major buying opportunity for investors, Wedbush says<blockquote>韦德布什表示，鹰派美联储会议纪要引发的科技股抛售对投资者来说是一个重大买入机会</blockquote>

2022-01-03

Thanks for sharing. Good start to the year!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-01-03

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$More positive news as wall street analysts initiated coverage on NU.https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/8282987/nu-holdings-ltd-nysenu-receives-average-recommendation-of-buy-from-brokerages.html

2021-12-30

Hanging tight. Hoping for a better 2022.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-30

$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/brazil/nubank-is-the-best-bank-in-brazil-for-the-third-consecutive-year-forbes/#0Some positive news amid the less than stellar performance.

2021-12-23

Thanks for the insight

After Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'<blockquote>圣诞节后，为“通胀牛鞭”做好准备</blockquote>

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Smith</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Wedbush的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示，科技股的大幅抛售为投资者创造了巨大的买入机会。</b></li><li><b>美联储会议纪要显示加息速度可能快于预期，纳斯达克周三下跌逾3%。</b></li><li><b>艾夫斯表示：“我们认为将推动第四次工业革命的许多长期科技赢家现在都处于超卖区域，我们发现其估值非常引人注目。”</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社/布莱恩·R·史密斯</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p>A Fed-driven sell-off in technology stocks is creating a massive buying opportunity for investors, according to a Wednesday note from Dan Ives of Wedbush.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)周三发布的一份报告称，美联储推动的科技股抛售正在为投资者创造巨大的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq 100 plunged more than 3% on Wednesday after minutes released by the Federal Reserve revealed the potential for quicker-than-expected interest rate increases and quantitative tightening later this year. Ark Invest&#39;s flagship ETF sold off as much as 7% and is down 12% year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克100指数周三暴跌逾3%，此前美联储公布的会议纪要显示，今年晚些时候加息和量化紧缩的速度可能快于预期。Ark Invest的旗舰ETF抛售高达7%，今年迄今已下跌12%。</blockquote></p><p>But the broad decline in fast-growing technology stocks represents a &#34;get out the shopping list&#34; moment for investors willing to buy downward trending stocks, according to Ives.</p><p><blockquote>但艾夫斯表示，对于愿意购买下跌趋势股票的投资者来说，快速增长的科技股普遍下跌代表着“退出购物清单”的时刻。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find very compelling given the outsized growth prospects over the next 12 to 18 months,&#34; Ives said.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“我们认为将推动第四次工业革命的许多长期科技赢家现在都处于超卖区域，考虑到未来12至18个月的巨大增长前景，我们发现其估值非常引人注目。”</blockquote></p><p>Ives warned that 2022 will likely remain very volatile for tech investors as the Fed combats inflation with hawkish policies, supply chain disruptions continue to impact semiconductors, and COVID-19 variants continue to spread. But that volatility is par for the course when buying tech stocks with strong growth prospects at bargain prices.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯警告称，随着美联储以鹰派政策对抗通胀、供应链中断继续影响半导体以及COVID-19变种继续传播，2022年对科技投资者来说可能仍将非常不稳定。但当以低价购买具有强劲增长前景的科技股时，这种波动是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;While the December Fed minutes were the straw that broke the camel&#39;s back after a brutal start to the year for tech investors, we caution this is not the time to throw in the white towel on the tech bull cycle,&#34; Ives said, pointing to the continued prospect for governments and enterprises to spend $1 trillion on cloud services over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“虽然12月美联储会议纪要是科技投资者在今年残酷开局后压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草，但我们警告说，现在还不是向科技牛市周期认输的时候。”未来十年，政府和企业将在云服务上花费1万亿美元的持续前景。</blockquote></p><p>Cyber security, 5G connectivity, and big data are additional fuel to stoke the ongoing growth in technology companies, according to Ives.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示，网络安全、5G连接和大数据是推动科技公司持续增长的额外动力。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;While we can fret about the Fed, 10-year spikes, and macro noise, the underlying growth in the tech sector (which is being underestimated by investors) is unparalleled to any period of time we have seen in the last 21 years,&#34; Ives said.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们可能会担心美联储、10年期飙升和宏观噪音，但科技行业的潜在增长（被投资者低估）是我们过去21年来看到的任何时期都无法比拟的，”艾夫斯说。</blockquote></p><p>Tech stocks that should be on investors shopping lists, according to Ives, include Apple,Microsoft,Zscaler,Palo Alto Networks, and Matterport, among others.</p><p><blockquote>Ives表示，应该列入投资者购物清单的科技股包括苹果、微软、Zscaler、Palo Alto Networks和Matterport等。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The tech sell-off sparked by hawkish Fed minutes is a major buying opportunity for investors, Wedbush says<blockquote>韦德布什表示，鹰派美联储会议纪要引发的科技股抛售对投资者来说是一个重大买入机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe tech sell-off sparked by hawkish Fed minutes is a major buying opportunity for investors, Wedbush says<blockquote>韦德布什表示，鹰派美联储会议纪要引发的科技股抛售对投资者来说是一个重大买入机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-07 14:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>A deep sell-off in technology stocks has created a massive buying opportunity for investors, according to Dan Ives of Wedbush.</b></li><li><b>The Nasdaq fell more than 3% on Wednesday after minutes from the Fed revealed the potential for quicker-than-expected interest rate hikes.</b></li><li><b>&#34;Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find very compelling,&#34; Ives said.</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6b633384a96e76caf6a6c6bcba24ca8\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Getty Images / Bryan R. Smith</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Wedbush的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示，科技股的大幅抛售为投资者创造了巨大的买入机会。</b></li><li><b>美联储会议纪要显示加息速度可能快于预期，纳斯达克周三下跌逾3%。</b></li><li><b>艾夫斯表示：“我们认为将推动第四次工业革命的许多长期科技赢家现在都处于超卖区域，我们发现其估值非常引人注目。”</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社/布莱恩·R·史密斯</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p>A Fed-driven sell-off in technology stocks is creating a massive buying opportunity for investors, according to a Wednesday note from Dan Ives of Wedbush.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)周三发布的一份报告称，美联储推动的科技股抛售正在为投资者创造巨大的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq 100 plunged more than 3% on Wednesday after minutes released by the Federal Reserve revealed the potential for quicker-than-expected interest rate increases and quantitative tightening later this year. Ark Invest&#39;s flagship ETF sold off as much as 7% and is down 12% year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克100指数周三暴跌逾3%，此前美联储公布的会议纪要显示，今年晚些时候加息和量化紧缩的速度可能快于预期。Ark Invest的旗舰ETF抛售高达7%，今年迄今已下跌12%。</blockquote></p><p>But the broad decline in fast-growing technology stocks represents a &#34;get out the shopping list&#34; moment for investors willing to buy downward trending stocks, according to Ives.</p><p><blockquote>但艾夫斯表示，对于愿意购买下跌趋势股票的投资者来说，快速增长的科技股普遍下跌代表着“退出购物清单”的时刻。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find very compelling given the outsized growth prospects over the next 12 to 18 months,&#34; Ives said.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“我们认为将推动第四次工业革命的许多长期科技赢家现在都处于超卖区域，考虑到未来12至18个月的巨大增长前景，我们发现其估值非常引人注目。”</blockquote></p><p>Ives warned that 2022 will likely remain very volatile for tech investors as the Fed combats inflation with hawkish policies, supply chain disruptions continue to impact semiconductors, and COVID-19 variants continue to spread. But that volatility is par for the course when buying tech stocks with strong growth prospects at bargain prices.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯警告称，随着美联储以鹰派政策对抗通胀、供应链中断继续影响半导体以及COVID-19变种继续传播，2022年对科技投资者来说可能仍将非常不稳定。但当以低价购买具有强劲增长前景的科技股时，这种波动是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;While the December Fed minutes were the straw that broke the camel&#39;s back after a brutal start to the year for tech investors, we caution this is not the time to throw in the white towel on the tech bull cycle,&#34; Ives said, pointing to the continued prospect for governments and enterprises to spend $1 trillion on cloud services over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“虽然12月美联储会议纪要是科技投资者在今年残酷开局后压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草，但我们警告说，现在还不是向科技牛市周期认输的时候。”未来十年，政府和企业将在云服务上花费1万亿美元的持续前景。</blockquote></p><p>Cyber security, 5G connectivity, and big data are additional fuel to stoke the ongoing growth in technology companies, according to Ives.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示，网络安全、5G连接和大数据是推动科技公司持续增长的额外动力。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;While we can fret about the Fed, 10-year spikes, and macro noise, the underlying growth in the tech sector (which is being underestimated by investors) is unparalleled to any period of time we have seen in the last 21 years,&#34; Ives said.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们可能会担心美联储、10年期飙升和宏观噪音，但科技行业的潜在增长（被投资者低估）是我们过去21年来看到的任何时期都无法比拟的，”艾夫斯说。</blockquote></p><p>Tech stocks that should be on investors shopping lists, according to Ives, include Apple,Microsoft,Zscaler,Palo Alto Networks, and Matterport, among others.</p><p><blockquote>Ives表示，应该列入投资者购物清单的科技股包括苹果、微软、Zscaler、Palo Alto Networks和Matterport等。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-hawkish-fed-tech-investors-major-buying-opportunity-2022-1\">Markets insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-hawkish-fed-tech-investors-major-buying-opportunity-2022-1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143887891","content_text":"A deep sell-off in technology stocks has created a massive buying opportunity for investors, according to Dan Ives of Wedbush.The Nasdaq fell more than 3% on Wednesday after minutes from the Fed revealed the potential for quicker-than-expected interest rate hikes.\"Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find very compelling,\" Ives said.Getty Images / Bryan R. SmithA Fed-driven sell-off in technology stocks is creating a massive buying opportunity for investors, according to a Wednesday note from Dan Ives of Wedbush.The Nasdaq 100 plunged more than 3% on Wednesday after minutes released by the Federal Reserve revealed the potential for quicker-than-expected interest rate increases and quantitative tightening later this year. Ark Invest's flagship ETF sold off as much as 7% and is down 12% year-to-date.But the broad decline in fast-growing technology stocks represents a \"get out the shopping list\" moment for investors willing to buy downward trending stocks, according to Ives.\"Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find very compelling given the outsized growth prospects over the next 12 to 18 months,\" Ives said.Ives warned that 2022 will likely remain very volatile for tech investors as the Fed combats inflation with hawkish policies, supply chain disruptions continue to impact semiconductors, and COVID-19 variants continue to spread. But that volatility is par for the course when buying tech stocks with strong growth prospects at bargain prices.\"While the December Fed minutes were the straw that broke the camel's back after a brutal start to the year for tech investors, we caution this is not the time to throw in the white towel on the tech bull cycle,\" Ives said, pointing to the continued prospect for governments and enterprises to spend $1 trillion on cloud services over the next decade.Cyber security, 5G connectivity, and big data are additional fuel to stoke the ongoing growth in technology companies, according to Ives.\"While we can fret about the Fed, 10-year spikes, and macro noise, the underlying growth in the tech sector (which is being underestimated by investors) is unparalleled to any period of time we have seen in the last 21 years,\" Ives said.Tech stocks that should be on investors shopping lists, according to Ives, include Apple,Microsoft,Zscaler,Palo Alto Networks, and Matterport, among others.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692728805,"gmtCreate":1641223990819,"gmtModify":1641223990819,"author":{"id":"4100405818069590","authorId":"4100405818069590","name":"ycng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100405818069590","authorIdStr":"4100405818069590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. Good start to the year!","listText":"Thanks for sharing. Good start to the year!","text":"Thanks for sharing. Good start to the year!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692728805","repostId":"1117854838","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692720262,"gmtCreate":1641222639787,"gmtModify":1641260648343,"author":{"id":"4100405818069590","authorId":"4100405818069590","name":"ycng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100405818069590","authorIdStr":"4100405818069590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>More positive news as wall street analysts initiated coverage on NU.https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/8282987/nu-holdings-ltd-nysenu-receives-average-recommendation-of-buy-from-brokerages.html","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>More positive news as wall street analysts initiated coverage on NU.https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/8282987/nu-holdings-ltd-nysenu-receives-average-recommendation-of-buy-from-brokerages.html","text":"$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$More positive news as wall street analysts initiated coverage on NU.https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/8282987/nu-holdings-ltd-nysenu-receives-average-recommendation-of-buy-from-brokerages.html","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692720262","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692355930,"gmtCreate":1640858194588,"gmtModify":1640858271208,"author":{"id":"4100405818069590","authorId":"4100405818069590","name":"ycng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100405818069590","authorIdStr":"4100405818069590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hanging tight. Hoping for a better 2022.","listText":"Hanging tight. Hoping for a better 2022.","text":"Hanging tight. Hoping for a better 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692355930","repostId":"1125254281","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692365667,"gmtCreate":1640852909694,"gmtModify":1640853853783,"author":{"id":"4100405818069590","authorId":"4100405818069590","name":"ycng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100405818069590","authorIdStr":"4100405818069590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/brazil/nubank-is-the-best-bank-in-brazil-for-the-third-consecutive-year-forbes/#0Some positive news amid the less than stellar performance.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/brazil/nubank-is-the-best-bank-in-brazil-for-the-third-consecutive-year-forbes/#0Some positive news amid the less than stellar performance.","text":"$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/brazil/nubank-is-the-best-bank-in-brazil-for-the-third-consecutive-year-forbes/#0Some positive news amid the less than stellar performance.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692365667","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274806242608","authorId":"3479274806242608","name":"kiekie","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274806242608","authorIdStr":"3479274806242608"},"content":"Thank you for sharing! Nu Holding's business will continue to grow rapidly. It is time to buy and patiently hold the company's stock.","text":"Thank you for sharing! Nu Holding's business will continue to grow rapidly. It is time to buy and patiently hold the company's stock.","html":"Thank you for sharing! Nu Holding's business will continue to grow rapidly. It is time to buy and patiently hold the company's stock."},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000404","authorId":"9000000000000404","name":"RudolfKennedy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bf2f8692df593c0e58239fd56abf27c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000404","authorIdStr":"9000000000000404"},"content":"Nu Holdings has a bright future. Buffett is its early investor, which is really commendable.","text":"Nu Holdings has a bright future. Buffett is its early investor, which is really commendable.","html":"Nu Holdings has a bright future. Buffett is its early investor, which is really commendable."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691720328,"gmtCreate":1640246893797,"gmtModify":1640247087915,"author":{"id":"4100405818069590","authorId":"4100405818069590","name":"ycng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100405818069590","authorIdStr":"4100405818069590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for the insight","listText":"Thanks for the insight","text":"Thanks for the insight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691720328","repostId":"1166370237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166370237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640244394,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166370237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 15:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'<blockquote>圣诞节后，为“通胀牛鞭”做好准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166370237","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy i","content":"<p>The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy in what's called the \"bullwhip effect.\"</p><p><blockquote>美国经济即将经历相当于印第安纳·琼斯最喜欢的玩具的经济效应，即所谓的“牛鞭效应”。</blockquote></p><p> All that means is that one small flick of the wrist leads to a big movement at the end of an oscillating supply-chain whip... and usually, a \"crack\" at the end of the whip.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，手腕的一个小小的轻轻一弹，就会导致振荡供应链鞭子末端的大动作...通常，鞭子末端有一个“裂缝”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should expect two things in the next few months...</p><p><blockquote>未来几个月，投资者应该期待两件事...</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Post-Christmas buying that will make Black Friday and Cyber Monday look like high-priced sidewalk sales by comparison.</li>  <li>All the talk about inflation – now the highest since 1982 – is going to disappear.</li> </ol> <b>How We Got Here</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相比之下，圣诞节后的购买将使黑色星期五和网络星期一看起来像高价的人行道销售。</li><li>所有关于通货膨胀的讨论——现在是1982年以来的最高水平——都将消失。</li></ol><b>我们是如何来到这里的</b></blockquote></p><p> Millions of Americans moved into \"treat yourself\" mode after COVID-19 lockdowns and pandemic stimulus cash magically deposited into their bank accounts. Demand for PlayStations, lumber, Honda CRVs, LG InstaView fridges, five-piece bamboo garden sets, practically&nbsp;<i>everything</i>... has helped drive a sharp economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>在COVID-19封锁和大流行刺激现金神奇地存入他们的银行账户后，数百万美国人进入了“善待自己”模式。对PlayStation、木材、本田CRV、LG InstaView冰箱、五件套竹制花园套装的需求<i>一切</i>...帮助推动了经济的急剧复苏。</blockquote></p><p> But too many people wanting stuff results in a shortage of stuff. There isn't enough to go around. And that shortage is worse if less stuff is produced... or if it's stuck in transit...</p><p><blockquote>但是太多的人想要东西会导致东西的短缺。没有足够的钱。如果生产的产品减少，短缺会更严重...或者如果它在运输途中被卡住了...</blockquote></p><p> Stimulus cash met up with pent-up demand and kicked the knees out of the global supply chain.</p><p><blockquote>刺激资金满足了被压抑的需求，并将膝盖踢出了全球供应链。</blockquote></p><p> It used to be a high form of capitalist triumph that Apple (AAPL) iPhone sources inputs from a network spanning 49 countries. But in a world of supply-chain paralysis, it's a headache.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)iPhone从横跨49个国家的网络获取信息，这曾经是资本主义的一种高度胜利。但在供应链瘫痪的世界里，这是一个令人头疼的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Like other basic infrastructure of modern civilization – the Internet, the electric grid, and cellular networks, for example – the global supply chain is something that we take for granted...&nbsp;<i>until it stops working</i>.</p><p><blockquote>就像现代文明的其他基础设施一样——例如互联网、电网和蜂窝网络——全球供应链是我们认为理所当然的事情...<i>直到它停止工作</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Still, if you really want something today – beef tenderloin, an iPhone 13, a Samsung 65-inch 4K TV – you're likely willing to pay more. After all, a shortage of something doesn't (usually) mean that it's not available at all. Rather, it means that the price goes up.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果你今天真的想要一些东西——牛柳、iPhone 13、三星65英寸4K电视——你可能愿意花更多钱。毕竟，某样东西的短缺（通常）并不意味着它根本不可用。相反，这意味着价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It's not a surprise that year-over-year inflation as of November clocked in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，截至11月份的同比通胀率为6.8%，为1982年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Most Powerful Force in the World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>世界上最强大的力量</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation is right up there, along with gravity, the wrath of a person scorned, and a hungry baby, as&nbsp;<i>a force that will not be denied</i>...</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀就在那里，伴随着重力、被蔑视的人的愤怒和饥饿的婴儿，就像<i>一股不可否认的力量</i>...</blockquote></p><p> But for my money, what's more powerful than that force is&nbsp;<b>mean reversion</b>. It means that for every strong reaction, things eventually swing back the other way... and find their way to the middle again.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，比那股力量更强大的是<b>均值回归</b>.这意味着每一次强烈的反应，事情最终都会反过来....再次找到通往中间的路。</blockquote></p><p> When applied to investing, mean reversion refers to extreme price movements eventually correcting – reverting to the mean, like a rubber band. And when applied to many months of global supply-chain constrictions... sooner or later, things will spring back.</p><p><blockquote>当应用于投资时，均值回归指的是极端的价格变动最终会修正——像橡皮筋一样恢复到均值。当应用于数月的全球供应链紧缩时...迟早，事情会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> We can already see it in the sharp decline in the cost of transporting goods. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for capacity to ship dry goods, hit 15-year highs in early October – and since then, has fallen by more than half. Shipping rates are falling, and available ship storage capacity is rising – the opposite of what happens when global supply chains are under strain.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经可以从货物运输成本的大幅下降中看到这一点。衡量干货运力需求的波罗的海干散货运力指数在10月初触及15年来的高点，此后已下跌一半以上。运费正在下降，可用的船舶存储能力正在上升——这与全球供应链面临压力时发生的情况相反。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, a number of global automakers have indicated that they expect semiconductor supplies to increase... the shortage of which has been a big bottleneck for cars, along with everything else that uses microchips – from cellphones to cars to football helmets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些全球汽车制造商表示，他们预计半导体供应将增加...芯片的短缺一直是汽车的一大瓶颈，其他使用微芯片的东西也是如此——从手机到汽车再到足球头盔。</blockquote></p><p> And since September, monthly manufacturing data from his Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index has shown strong improvement throughout much of Asia, led by Vietnam and Malaysia... That means output throughout that region – home to four of the world's six biggest manufacturing countries – is rebounding.</p><p><blockquote>自9月份以来，Markit采购经理人指数的月度制造业数据显示，以越南和马来西亚为首的亚洲大部分地区都出现了强劲改善……这意味着整个地区——世界六大制造业国家中的四个——的产出正在反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here Comes the Bullwhip</b></p><p><blockquote><b>牛鞭来了</b></blockquote></p><p> You know what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>你知道接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Retailers that have spent months offering warmed-over \"global supply chain problem\" apologies to consumers are about to find themselves swamped with goods. All the Costco couches, Instant Pots, packages of dried mango, Teslas, and everything else that's been on order, will arrive... along with a lot more that wasn't on order.</p><p><blockquote>花了几个月时间向消费者道歉的零售商即将发现自己被商品淹没了。所有好市多的沙发、速溶壶、芒果干包、特斯拉和其他所有订购的东西都会到达...还有很多没有订购的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Shortages will turn into surpluses, and \"out of stock\" will become \"inventory reduction sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>短缺会变成过剩，“断货”会变成“减库存销售”。</blockquote></p><p> The \"bullwhip effect\" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.</p><p><blockquote>“牛鞭效应”是当需求扭曲误导供应链时会发生的事情...它即将全力袭来。</blockquote></p><p> So if you can convince the family to postpone Christmas for a while, you'll get a lot more return on your Christmas dollar next year. That's because everything is going to be on the mother of all sales, as the global supply chain finally chokes up all the goods that haven't been on their way.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你能说服家人推迟一段时间过圣诞节，明年你的圣诞钱会有更多的回报。这是因为一切都将成为所有销售之母，因为全球供应链最终会堵塞所有尚未上路的商品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极反向指标</b></blockquote></p><p> And there's another positive side effect...&nbsp;<i>lower inflation</i>.</p><p><blockquote>还有另一个积极的副作用...<i>降低通货膨胀</i>.</blockquote></p><p> It's not complicated... As the upward price pressure on goods across the economy dissipates, inflation will fall.</p><p><blockquote>这并不复杂...随着整个经济中商品价格上涨压力的消散，通胀将会下降。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>New York Times</i>bestselling author Jim Rickards&nbsp;recently appeared on my colleague Daniela Cambone's show&nbsp;to say you should \"expect inflation to come down very quickly,\" due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve.... And you could see severe, \"tightening into weakness,\" with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts. (Quoth the Raven covered that interview here on this site as well.)</p><p><blockquote><i>纽约时报</i>畅销书作家吉姆·里卡兹（Jim Rickards）最近出现在我的同事丹妮拉·坎伯恩（Daniela Cambone）的节目中说，由于美联储预计即将加息，你应该“预计通胀会很快下降”....他预测，你可能会看到严重的“紧缩变成疲软”，明年可能会加息三次。（Quoth the Raven也在本网站上报道了那次采访。）</blockquote></p><p> What's more, there's another reason for inflation to decline... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally waved the white flag and admitted that inflation isn't \"transitory.\" That's been the Fed's preferred term for inflation, which has been steadily rising all year, from an annual rate of 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通胀下降还有另一个原因...美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔终于举起了白旗，承认通胀不是“暂时的”。这是美联储首选的通胀术语，通胀全年一直在稳步上升，从1月份的年率1.4%升至11月份的6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Transitory\" suggested that as the economy moved past pandemic-induced supply shortages, and as demand fueled by COVID-19 stimulus cash dissipated, recent price increases would gradually disappear.</p><p><blockquote>“暂时性”表明，随着经济摆脱大流行引发的供应短缺，以及COVID-19刺激现金推动的需求消散，近期的价格上涨将逐渐消失。</blockquote></p><p> And ironically, just as the Fed acknowledged the obvious – that inflation would be around for longer than a few months –&nbsp;<i>it's finally going to go away</i>.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，正如美联储承认显而易见的事实——通胀将持续超过几个月——<i>它终于要消失了</i>.</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator... the proverbial bell ringing at the top of the market.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在成为最终的反向指标...众所周知，市场顶部的钟声敲响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'<blockquote>圣诞节后，为“通胀牛鞭”做好准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 15:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy in what's called the \"bullwhip effect.\"</p><p><blockquote>美国经济即将经历相当于印第安纳·琼斯最喜欢的玩具的经济效应，即所谓的“牛鞭效应”。</blockquote></p><p> All that means is that one small flick of the wrist leads to a big movement at the end of an oscillating supply-chain whip... and usually, a \"crack\" at the end of the whip.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，手腕的一个小小的轻轻一弹，就会导致振荡供应链鞭子末端的大动作...通常，鞭子末端有一个“裂缝”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should expect two things in the next few months...</p><p><blockquote>未来几个月，投资者应该期待两件事...</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Post-Christmas buying that will make Black Friday and Cyber Monday look like high-priced sidewalk sales by comparison.</li>  <li>All the talk about inflation – now the highest since 1982 – is going to disappear.</li> </ol> <b>How We Got Here</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相比之下，圣诞节后的购买将使黑色星期五和网络星期一看起来像高价的人行道销售。</li><li>所有关于通货膨胀的讨论——现在是1982年以来的最高水平——都将消失。</li></ol><b>我们是如何来到这里的</b></blockquote></p><p> Millions of Americans moved into \"treat yourself\" mode after COVID-19 lockdowns and pandemic stimulus cash magically deposited into their bank accounts. Demand for PlayStations, lumber, Honda CRVs, LG InstaView fridges, five-piece bamboo garden sets, practically&nbsp;<i>everything</i>... has helped drive a sharp economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>在COVID-19封锁和大流行刺激现金神奇地存入他们的银行账户后，数百万美国人进入了“善待自己”模式。对PlayStation、木材、本田CRV、LG InstaView冰箱、五件套竹制花园套装的需求<i>一切</i>...帮助推动了经济的急剧复苏。</blockquote></p><p> But too many people wanting stuff results in a shortage of stuff. There isn't enough to go around. And that shortage is worse if less stuff is produced... or if it's stuck in transit...</p><p><blockquote>但是太多的人想要东西会导致东西的短缺。没有足够的钱。如果生产的产品减少，短缺会更严重...或者如果它在运输途中被卡住了...</blockquote></p><p> Stimulus cash met up with pent-up demand and kicked the knees out of the global supply chain.</p><p><blockquote>刺激资金满足了被压抑的需求，并将膝盖踢出了全球供应链。</blockquote></p><p> It used to be a high form of capitalist triumph that Apple (AAPL) iPhone sources inputs from a network spanning 49 countries. But in a world of supply-chain paralysis, it's a headache.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)iPhone从横跨49个国家的网络获取信息，这曾经是资本主义的一种高度胜利。但在供应链瘫痪的世界里，这是一个令人头疼的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Like other basic infrastructure of modern civilization – the Internet, the electric grid, and cellular networks, for example – the global supply chain is something that we take for granted...&nbsp;<i>until it stops working</i>.</p><p><blockquote>就像现代文明的其他基础设施一样——例如互联网、电网和蜂窝网络——全球供应链是我们认为理所当然的事情...<i>直到它停止工作</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Still, if you really want something today – beef tenderloin, an iPhone 13, a Samsung 65-inch 4K TV – you're likely willing to pay more. After all, a shortage of something doesn't (usually) mean that it's not available at all. Rather, it means that the price goes up.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果你今天真的想要一些东西——牛柳、iPhone 13、三星65英寸4K电视——你可能愿意花更多钱。毕竟，某样东西的短缺（通常）并不意味着它根本不可用。相反，这意味着价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It's not a surprise that year-over-year inflation as of November clocked in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，截至11月份的同比通胀率为6.8%，为1982年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Most Powerful Force in the World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>世界上最强大的力量</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation is right up there, along with gravity, the wrath of a person scorned, and a hungry baby, as&nbsp;<i>a force that will not be denied</i>...</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀就在那里，伴随着重力、被蔑视的人的愤怒和饥饿的婴儿，就像<i>一股不可否认的力量</i>...</blockquote></p><p> But for my money, what's more powerful than that force is&nbsp;<b>mean reversion</b>. It means that for every strong reaction, things eventually swing back the other way... and find their way to the middle again.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，比那股力量更强大的是<b>均值回归</b>.这意味着每一次强烈的反应，事情最终都会反过来....再次找到通往中间的路。</blockquote></p><p> When applied to investing, mean reversion refers to extreme price movements eventually correcting – reverting to the mean, like a rubber band. And when applied to many months of global supply-chain constrictions... sooner or later, things will spring back.</p><p><blockquote>当应用于投资时，均值回归指的是极端的价格变动最终会修正——像橡皮筋一样恢复到均值。当应用于数月的全球供应链紧缩时...迟早，事情会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> We can already see it in the sharp decline in the cost of transporting goods. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for capacity to ship dry goods, hit 15-year highs in early October – and since then, has fallen by more than half. Shipping rates are falling, and available ship storage capacity is rising – the opposite of what happens when global supply chains are under strain.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经可以从货物运输成本的大幅下降中看到这一点。衡量干货运力需求的波罗的海干散货运力指数在10月初触及15年来的高点，此后已下跌一半以上。运费正在下降，可用的船舶存储能力正在上升——这与全球供应链面临压力时发生的情况相反。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, a number of global automakers have indicated that they expect semiconductor supplies to increase... the shortage of which has been a big bottleneck for cars, along with everything else that uses microchips – from cellphones to cars to football helmets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些全球汽车制造商表示，他们预计半导体供应将增加...芯片的短缺一直是汽车的一大瓶颈，其他使用微芯片的东西也是如此——从手机到汽车再到足球头盔。</blockquote></p><p> And since September, monthly manufacturing data from his Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index has shown strong improvement throughout much of Asia, led by Vietnam and Malaysia... That means output throughout that region – home to four of the world's six biggest manufacturing countries – is rebounding.</p><p><blockquote>自9月份以来，Markit采购经理人指数的月度制造业数据显示，以越南和马来西亚为首的亚洲大部分地区都出现了强劲改善……这意味着整个地区——世界六大制造业国家中的四个——的产出正在反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here Comes the Bullwhip</b></p><p><blockquote><b>牛鞭来了</b></blockquote></p><p> You know what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>你知道接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Retailers that have spent months offering warmed-over \"global supply chain problem\" apologies to consumers are about to find themselves swamped with goods. All the Costco couches, Instant Pots, packages of dried mango, Teslas, and everything else that's been on order, will arrive... along with a lot more that wasn't on order.</p><p><blockquote>花了几个月时间向消费者道歉的零售商即将发现自己被商品淹没了。所有好市多的沙发、速溶壶、芒果干包、特斯拉和其他所有订购的东西都会到达...还有很多没有订购的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Shortages will turn into surpluses, and \"out of stock\" will become \"inventory reduction sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>短缺会变成过剩，“断货”会变成“减库存销售”。</blockquote></p><p> The \"bullwhip effect\" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.</p><p><blockquote>“牛鞭效应”是当需求扭曲误导供应链时会发生的事情...它即将全力袭来。</blockquote></p><p> So if you can convince the family to postpone Christmas for a while, you'll get a lot more return on your Christmas dollar next year. That's because everything is going to be on the mother of all sales, as the global supply chain finally chokes up all the goods that haven't been on their way.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你能说服家人推迟一段时间过圣诞节，明年你的圣诞钱会有更多的回报。这是因为一切都将成为所有销售之母，因为全球供应链最终会堵塞所有尚未上路的商品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极反向指标</b></blockquote></p><p> And there's another positive side effect...&nbsp;<i>lower inflation</i>.</p><p><blockquote>还有另一个积极的副作用...<i>降低通货膨胀</i>.</blockquote></p><p> It's not complicated... As the upward price pressure on goods across the economy dissipates, inflation will fall.</p><p><blockquote>这并不复杂...随着整个经济中商品价格上涨压力的消散，通胀将会下降。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>New York Times</i>bestselling author Jim Rickards&nbsp;recently appeared on my colleague Daniela Cambone's show&nbsp;to say you should \"expect inflation to come down very quickly,\" due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve.... And you could see severe, \"tightening into weakness,\" with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts. (Quoth the Raven covered that interview here on this site as well.)</p><p><blockquote><i>纽约时报</i>畅销书作家吉姆·里卡兹（Jim Rickards）最近出现在我的同事丹妮拉·坎伯恩（Daniela Cambone）的节目中说，由于美联储预计即将加息，你应该“预计通胀会很快下降”....他预测，你可能会看到严重的“紧缩变成疲软”，明年可能会加息三次。（Quoth the Raven也在本网站上报道了那次采访。）</blockquote></p><p> What's more, there's another reason for inflation to decline... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally waved the white flag and admitted that inflation isn't \"transitory.\" That's been the Fed's preferred term for inflation, which has been steadily rising all year, from an annual rate of 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通胀下降还有另一个原因...美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔终于举起了白旗，承认通胀不是“暂时的”。这是美联储首选的通胀术语，通胀全年一直在稳步上升，从1月份的年率1.4%升至11月份的6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Transitory\" suggested that as the economy moved past pandemic-induced supply shortages, and as demand fueled by COVID-19 stimulus cash dissipated, recent price increases would gradually disappear.</p><p><blockquote>“暂时性”表明，随着经济摆脱大流行引发的供应短缺，以及COVID-19刺激现金推动的需求消散，近期的价格上涨将逐渐消失。</blockquote></p><p> And ironically, just as the Fed acknowledged the obvious – that inflation would be around for longer than a few months –&nbsp;<i>it's finally going to go away</i>.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，正如美联储承认显而易见的事实——通胀将持续超过几个月——<i>它终于要消失了</i>.</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator... the proverbial bell ringing at the top of the market.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在成为最终的反向指标...众所周知，市场顶部的钟声敲响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-12-22/after-christmas-get-ready-inflation-bullwhip\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-12-22/after-christmas-get-ready-inflation-bullwhip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166370237","content_text":"The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy in what's called the \"bullwhip effect.\"\nAll that means is that one small flick of the wrist leads to a big movement at the end of an oscillating supply-chain whip... and usually, a \"crack\" at the end of the whip.\nInvestors should expect two things in the next few months...\n\nPost-Christmas buying that will make Black Friday and Cyber Monday look like high-priced sidewalk sales by comparison.\nAll the talk about inflation – now the highest since 1982 – is going to disappear.\n\nHow We Got Here\nMillions of Americans moved into \"treat yourself\" mode after COVID-19 lockdowns and pandemic stimulus cash magically deposited into their bank accounts. Demand for PlayStations, lumber, Honda CRVs, LG InstaView fridges, five-piece bamboo garden sets, practically everything... has helped drive a sharp economic recovery.\nBut too many people wanting stuff results in a shortage of stuff. There isn't enough to go around. And that shortage is worse if less stuff is produced... or if it's stuck in transit...\nStimulus cash met up with pent-up demand and kicked the knees out of the global supply chain.\nIt used to be a high form of capitalist triumph that Apple (AAPL) iPhone sources inputs from a network spanning 49 countries. But in a world of supply-chain paralysis, it's a headache.\nLike other basic infrastructure of modern civilization – the Internet, the electric grid, and cellular networks, for example – the global supply chain is something that we take for granted... until it stops working.\nStill, if you really want something today – beef tenderloin, an iPhone 13, a Samsung 65-inch 4K TV – you're likely willing to pay more. After all, a shortage of something doesn't (usually) mean that it's not available at all. Rather, it means that the price goes up.\nIt's not a surprise that year-over-year inflation as of November clocked in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 1982.\nThe Most Powerful Force in the World\nInflation is right up there, along with gravity, the wrath of a person scorned, and a hungry baby, as a force that will not be denied...\nBut for my money, what's more powerful than that force is mean reversion. It means that for every strong reaction, things eventually swing back the other way... and find their way to the middle again.\nWhen applied to investing, mean reversion refers to extreme price movements eventually correcting – reverting to the mean, like a rubber band. And when applied to many months of global supply-chain constrictions... sooner or later, things will spring back.\nWe can already see it in the sharp decline in the cost of transporting goods. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for capacity to ship dry goods, hit 15-year highs in early October – and since then, has fallen by more than half. Shipping rates are falling, and available ship storage capacity is rising – the opposite of what happens when global supply chains are under strain.\nMeanwhile, a number of global automakers have indicated that they expect semiconductor supplies to increase... the shortage of which has been a big bottleneck for cars, along with everything else that uses microchips – from cellphones to cars to football helmets.\nAnd since September, monthly manufacturing data from his Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index has shown strong improvement throughout much of Asia, led by Vietnam and Malaysia... That means output throughout that region – home to four of the world's six biggest manufacturing countries – is rebounding.\nHere Comes the Bullwhip\nYou know what comes next.\nRetailers that have spent months offering warmed-over \"global supply chain problem\" apologies to consumers are about to find themselves swamped with goods. All the Costco couches, Instant Pots, packages of dried mango, Teslas, and everything else that's been on order, will arrive... along with a lot more that wasn't on order.\nShortages will turn into surpluses, and \"out of stock\" will become \"inventory reduction sales.\"\nThe \"bullwhip effect\" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.\nSo if you can convince the family to postpone Christmas for a while, you'll get a lot more return on your Christmas dollar next year. That's because everything is going to be on the mother of all sales, as the global supply chain finally chokes up all the goods that haven't been on their way.\nThe Ultimate Contrarian Indicator\nAnd there's another positive side effect... lower inflation.\nIt's not complicated... As the upward price pressure on goods across the economy dissipates, inflation will fall.\nNew York Timesbestselling author Jim Rickards recently appeared on my colleague Daniela Cambone's show to say you should \"expect inflation to come down very quickly,\" due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve.... And you could see severe, \"tightening into weakness,\" with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts. (Quoth the Raven covered that interview here on this site as well.)\nWhat's more, there's another reason for inflation to decline... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally waved the white flag and admitted that inflation isn't \"transitory.\" That's been the Fed's preferred term for inflation, which has been steadily rising all year, from an annual rate of 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November.\n\"Transitory\" suggested that as the economy moved past pandemic-induced supply shortages, and as demand fueled by COVID-19 stimulus cash dissipated, recent price increases would gradually disappear.\nAnd ironically, just as the Fed acknowledged the obvious – that inflation would be around for longer than a few months – it's finally going to go away.\nThe Fed is becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator... the proverbial bell ringing at the top of the market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":692365667,"gmtCreate":1640852909694,"gmtModify":1640853853783,"author":{"id":"4100405818069590","authorId":"4100405818069590","name":"ycng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100405818069590","authorIdStr":"4100405818069590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/brazil/nubank-is-the-best-bank-in-brazil-for-the-third-consecutive-year-forbes/#0Some positive news amid the less than stellar performance.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/brazil/nubank-is-the-best-bank-in-brazil-for-the-third-consecutive-year-forbes/#0Some positive news amid the less than stellar performance.","text":"$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/brazil/nubank-is-the-best-bank-in-brazil-for-the-third-consecutive-year-forbes/#0Some positive news amid the less than stellar performance.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692365667","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274806242608","authorId":"3479274806242608","name":"kiekie","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274806242608","authorIdStr":"3479274806242608"},"content":"Thank you for sharing! Nu Holding's business will continue to grow rapidly. It is time to buy and patiently hold the company's stock.","text":"Thank you for sharing! Nu Holding's business will continue to grow rapidly. It is time to buy and patiently hold the company's stock.","html":"Thank you for sharing! Nu Holding's business will continue to grow rapidly. It is time to buy and patiently hold the company's stock."},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000404","authorId":"9000000000000404","name":"RudolfKennedy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bf2f8692df593c0e58239fd56abf27c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000404","authorIdStr":"9000000000000404"},"content":"Nu Holdings has a bright future. Buffett is its early investor, which is really commendable.","text":"Nu Holdings has a bright future. Buffett is its early investor, which is really commendable.","html":"Nu Holdings has a bright future. Buffett is its early investor, which is really commendable."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692720262,"gmtCreate":1641222639787,"gmtModify":1641260648343,"author":{"id":"4100405818069590","authorId":"4100405818069590","name":"ycng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100405818069590","authorIdStr":"4100405818069590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>More positive news as wall street analysts initiated coverage on NU.https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/8282987/nu-holdings-ltd-nysenu-receives-average-recommendation-of-buy-from-brokerages.html","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NU\">$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$</a>More positive news as wall street analysts initiated coverage on NU.https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/8282987/nu-holdings-ltd-nysenu-receives-average-recommendation-of-buy-from-brokerages.html","text":"$Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$More positive news as wall street analysts initiated coverage on NU.https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/8282987/nu-holdings-ltd-nysenu-receives-average-recommendation-of-buy-from-brokerages.html","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692720262","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692355930,"gmtCreate":1640858194588,"gmtModify":1640858271208,"author":{"id":"4100405818069590","authorId":"4100405818069590","name":"ycng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100405818069590","authorIdStr":"4100405818069590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hanging tight. Hoping for a better 2022.","listText":"Hanging tight. Hoping for a better 2022.","text":"Hanging tight. Hoping for a better 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692355930","repostId":"1125254281","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692728805,"gmtCreate":1641223990819,"gmtModify":1641223990819,"author":{"id":"4100405818069590","authorId":"4100405818069590","name":"ycng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100405818069590","authorIdStr":"4100405818069590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for sharing. Good start to the year!","listText":"Thanks for sharing. Good start to the year!","text":"Thanks for sharing. Good start to the year!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692728805","repostId":"1117854838","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117854838","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641220222,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117854838?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-03 22:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022<blockquote>美国股市周一小幅高开开启2022年首笔交易</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117854838","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022.The Dow Jones Indu","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>美国股市周一小幅高开，开启2022年首次交易。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 60 points, or about 0.1%. The S&amp;P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced about 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨60点，涨幅约0.1%。标普500上涨0.4%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨约0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks have a tendency to gain in the start of a new year as investors look to put new money to work, Bank of America noted on Monday. The S&amp;P 500 was up in the first week of the calendar year in 11 of the last 13 years, with an average gain of about 1.6%, the firm found.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行周一指出，随着投资者希望投入新资金，股市在新年伊始往往会上涨。该公司发现，在过去13年中，有11年标普500在日历年第一周上涨，平均涨幅约为1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla helped the market generate some early momentum Monday, rising 6.8% after theelectric vehicle company reported 308,600 deliveries in the fourth quarter, beating expectations.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周一帮助市场产生了一些早期动力，该电动汽车公司公布第四季度交付量为308,600辆，超出预期，股价上涨6.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Along with Tesla, big automakers also saw their shares climb, with Ford Motor and General Motors each rising1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>除特斯拉外，大型汽车制造商的股价也上涨，福特汽车和通用汽车各上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>Reopening stocks also pushed higher. Airlines edged higher as investors shrugged off concerns about holiday flight cancelations that have extended into Monday. United Airlines gained 1% and Alaska Air rose 2.3%. Meanwhile, casino stocks including Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts gained about 1% apiece.</p><p><blockquote>重新开放的股票也推高了。由于投资者摆脱了对延续至周一的假日航班取消的担忧，航空公司小幅走高。联合航空上涨1%，阿拉斯加航空上涨2.3%。与此同时，拉斯维加斯金沙集团和永利度假村等赌场股各上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p>The moves come after markets closed out a strong 2021 last week. TheS&amp;P 500 rose nearly 27% for the year, with the Nasdaq Composite and Dow also posting large returns. Stocks fell slightly on Friday, but the S&amp;P 500 and Dow were positive for the final week of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这些举措是在上周市场结束强劲的2021年之后出台的。标准普尔500指数今年上涨了近27%，纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯指数也取得了丰厚的回报。周五股市小幅下跌，但标普500和道琼斯指数在今年最后一周表现良好。</blockquote></p><p>The new year starts with continued uncertainty around the Covid-19 pandemic. The rise of the omicron variant helped lead to the thousands of flight cancellations during the holiday season and has led some businesses and schools to consider temporary closures. Also, several major Wall Street banks have asked employees to work from home for the first few weeks of January.</p><p><blockquote>新年伊始，围绕新冠肺炎疫情的持续不确定性。奥密克戎变种的兴起导致假期期间数千个航班取消，并导致一些企业和学校考虑暂时关闭。此外，华尔街几家主要银行已要求员工在1月份的前几周在家工作。</blockquote></p><p>Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told ABC&#39;s &#34;This Week&#34; on Sunday that U.S. health officials may soon update guidelines to include a testing recommendation to signal when a person who previously tested positive for Covid can leave isolation.</p><p><blockquote>传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周日告诉美国广播公司的“本周”节目，美国卫生官员可能很快会更新指南，纳入检测建议，以发出信号，表明此前新冠病毒检测呈阳性的人何时可以离开隔离。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation and monetary policy are also expected to be key themes for 2022, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates multiple times in the coming year to help cool the rise in prices for consumers.</p><p><blockquote>通胀和货币政策预计也将成为2022年的关键主题，因为投资者预计美联储将在未来一年多次加息，以帮助消费者冷却物价上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“Just as for the economy as a whole, the market story for 2022 will be a return to normal. As hiring continues, spending grows, and businesses hire and invest, the economy will be normal. The government is normalizing policy on the same expectations. When you look at the macro picture, the overarching theme is 2022 will bring us back to something like normal,” Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in a note to clients on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“就像整体经济一样，2022年的市场故事将是恢复正常。随着招聘的继续，支出的增长，以及企业招聘和投资，经济将恢复正常。政府正在根据同样的预期使政策正常化。当你看宏观形势时，首要主题是2022年将使我们恢复正常，”联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米兰周五在给客户的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p>The first week of the year will be a busy one for economic data, with the key December jobs report slated for a Friday morning release. On Monday, investors will get updated looks at manufacturing activity and construction spending.</p><p><blockquote>今年第一周将是经济数据繁忙的一周，关键的12月份就业报告定于周五上午发布。周一，投资者将获得制造业活动和建筑支出的最新情况。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022<blockquote>美国股市周一小幅高开开启2022年首笔交易</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022<blockquote>美国股市周一小幅高开开启2022年首笔交易</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-03 22:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>美国股市周一小幅高开，开启2022年首次交易。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 60 points, or about 0.1%. The S&amp;P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced about 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨60点，涨幅约0.1%。标普500上涨0.4%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨约0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks have a tendency to gain in the start of a new year as investors look to put new money to work, Bank of America noted on Monday. The S&amp;P 500 was up in the first week of the calendar year in 11 of the last 13 years, with an average gain of about 1.6%, the firm found.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行周一指出，随着投资者希望投入新资金，股市在新年伊始往往会上涨。该公司发现，在过去13年中，有11年标普500在日历年第一周上涨，平均涨幅约为1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla helped the market generate some early momentum Monday, rising 6.8% after theelectric vehicle company reported 308,600 deliveries in the fourth quarter, beating expectations.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周一帮助市场产生了一些早期动力，该电动汽车公司公布第四季度交付量为308,600辆，超出预期，股价上涨6.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Along with Tesla, big automakers also saw their shares climb, with Ford Motor and General Motors each rising1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>除特斯拉外，大型汽车制造商的股价也上涨，福特汽车和通用汽车各上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>Reopening stocks also pushed higher. Airlines edged higher as investors shrugged off concerns about holiday flight cancelations that have extended into Monday. United Airlines gained 1% and Alaska Air rose 2.3%. Meanwhile, casino stocks including Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts gained about 1% apiece.</p><p><blockquote>重新开放的股票也推高了。由于投资者摆脱了对延续至周一的假日航班取消的担忧，航空公司小幅走高。联合航空上涨1%，阿拉斯加航空上涨2.3%。与此同时，拉斯维加斯金沙集团和永利度假村等赌场股各上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p>The moves come after markets closed out a strong 2021 last week. TheS&amp;P 500 rose nearly 27% for the year, with the Nasdaq Composite and Dow also posting large returns. Stocks fell slightly on Friday, but the S&amp;P 500 and Dow were positive for the final week of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这些举措是在上周市场结束强劲的2021年之后出台的。标准普尔500指数今年上涨了近27%，纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯指数也取得了丰厚的回报。周五股市小幅下跌，但标普500和道琼斯指数在今年最后一周表现良好。</blockquote></p><p>The new year starts with continued uncertainty around the Covid-19 pandemic. The rise of the omicron variant helped lead to the thousands of flight cancellations during the holiday season and has led some businesses and schools to consider temporary closures. Also, several major Wall Street banks have asked employees to work from home for the first few weeks of January.</p><p><blockquote>新年伊始，围绕新冠肺炎疫情的持续不确定性。奥密克戎变种的兴起导致假期期间数千个航班取消，并导致一些企业和学校考虑暂时关闭。此外，华尔街几家主要银行已要求员工在1月份的前几周在家工作。</blockquote></p><p>Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told ABC&#39;s &#34;This Week&#34; on Sunday that U.S. health officials may soon update guidelines to include a testing recommendation to signal when a person who previously tested positive for Covid can leave isolation.</p><p><blockquote>传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周日告诉美国广播公司的“本周”节目，美国卫生官员可能很快会更新指南，纳入检测建议，以发出信号，表明此前新冠病毒检测呈阳性的人何时可以离开隔离。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation and monetary policy are also expected to be key themes for 2022, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates multiple times in the coming year to help cool the rise in prices for consumers.</p><p><blockquote>通胀和货币政策预计也将成为2022年的关键主题，因为投资者预计美联储将在未来一年多次加息，以帮助消费者冷却物价上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“Just as for the economy as a whole, the market story for 2022 will be a return to normal. As hiring continues, spending grows, and businesses hire and invest, the economy will be normal. The government is normalizing policy on the same expectations. When you look at the macro picture, the overarching theme is 2022 will bring us back to something like normal,” Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in a note to clients on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“就像整体经济一样，2022年的市场故事将是恢复正常。随着招聘的继续，支出的增长，以及企业招聘和投资，经济将恢复正常。政府正在根据同样的预期使政策正常化。当你看宏观形势时，首要主题是2022年将使我们恢复正常，”联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米兰周五在给客户的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p>The first week of the year will be a busy one for economic data, with the key December jobs report slated for a Friday morning release. On Monday, investors will get updated looks at manufacturing activity and construction spending.</p><p><blockquote>今年第一周将是经济数据繁忙的一周，关键的12月份就业报告定于周五上午发布。周一，投资者将获得制造业活动和建筑支出的最新情况。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117854838","content_text":"U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022.The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 60 points, or about 0.1%. The S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced about 0.8%.Stocks have a tendency to gain in the start of a new year as investors look to put new money to work, Bank of America noted on Monday. The S&P 500 was up in the first week of the calendar year in 11 of the last 13 years, with an average gain of about 1.6%, the firm found.Tesla helped the market generate some early momentum Monday, rising 6.8% after theelectric vehicle company reported 308,600 deliveries in the fourth quarter, beating expectations.Along with Tesla, big automakers also saw their shares climb, with Ford Motor and General Motors each rising1.6%.Reopening stocks also pushed higher. Airlines edged higher as investors shrugged off concerns about holiday flight cancelations that have extended into Monday. United Airlines gained 1% and Alaska Air rose 2.3%. Meanwhile, casino stocks including Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts gained about 1% apiece.The moves come after markets closed out a strong 2021 last week. TheS&P 500 rose nearly 27% for the year, with the Nasdaq Composite and Dow also posting large returns. Stocks fell slightly on Friday, but the S&P 500 and Dow were positive for the final week of the year.The new year starts with continued uncertainty around the Covid-19 pandemic. The rise of the omicron variant helped lead to the thousands of flight cancellations during the holiday season and has led some businesses and schools to consider temporary closures. Also, several major Wall Street banks have asked employees to work from home for the first few weeks of January.Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told ABC's \"This Week\" on Sunday that U.S. health officials may soon update guidelines to include a testing recommendation to signal when a person who previously tested positive for Covid can leave isolation.Inflation and monetary policy are also expected to be key themes for 2022, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates multiple times in the coming year to help cool the rise in prices for consumers.“Just as for the economy as a whole, the market story for 2022 will be a return to normal. As hiring continues, spending grows, and businesses hire and invest, the economy will be normal. The government is normalizing policy on the same expectations. When you look at the macro picture, the overarching theme is 2022 will bring us back to something like normal,” Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in a note to clients on Friday.The first week of the year will be a busy one for economic data, with the key December jobs report slated for a Friday morning release. On Monday, investors will get updated looks at manufacturing activity and construction spending.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695413229,"gmtCreate":1641543544615,"gmtModify":1641543544615,"author":{"id":"4100405818069590","authorId":"4100405818069590","name":"ycng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100405818069590","authorIdStr":"4100405818069590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still jittery over the sea of red.","listText":"Still jittery over the sea of red.","text":"Still jittery over the sea of red.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695413229","repostId":"1143887891","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143887891","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641535893,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143887891?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-07 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The tech sell-off sparked by hawkish Fed minutes is a major buying opportunity for investors, Wedbush says<blockquote>韦德布什表示，鹰派美联储会议纪要引发的科技股抛售对投资者来说是一个重大买入机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143887891","media":"Markets insider","summary":"A deep sell-off in technology stocks has created a massive buying opportunity for investors, accordi","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>A deep sell-off in technology stocks has created a massive buying opportunity for investors, according to Dan Ives of Wedbush.</b></li><li><b>The Nasdaq fell more than 3% on Wednesday after minutes from the Fed revealed the potential for quicker-than-expected interest rate hikes.</b></li><li><b>&#34;Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find very compelling,&#34; Ives said.</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6b633384a96e76caf6a6c6bcba24ca8\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Getty Images / Bryan R. Smith</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Wedbush的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示，科技股的大幅抛售为投资者创造了巨大的买入机会。</b></li><li><b>美联储会议纪要显示加息速度可能快于预期，纳斯达克周三下跌逾3%。</b></li><li><b>艾夫斯表示：“我们认为将推动第四次工业革命的许多长期科技赢家现在都处于超卖区域，我们发现其估值非常引人注目。”</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社/布莱恩·R·史密斯</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p>A Fed-driven sell-off in technology stocks is creating a massive buying opportunity for investors, according to a Wednesday note from Dan Ives of Wedbush.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)周三发布的一份报告称，美联储推动的科技股抛售正在为投资者创造巨大的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq 100 plunged more than 3% on Wednesday after minutes released by the Federal Reserve revealed the potential for quicker-than-expected interest rate increases and quantitative tightening later this year. Ark Invest&#39;s flagship ETF sold off as much as 7% and is down 12% year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克100指数周三暴跌逾3%，此前美联储公布的会议纪要显示，今年晚些时候加息和量化紧缩的速度可能快于预期。Ark Invest的旗舰ETF抛售高达7%，今年迄今已下跌12%。</blockquote></p><p>But the broad decline in fast-growing technology stocks represents a &#34;get out the shopping list&#34; moment for investors willing to buy downward trending stocks, according to Ives.</p><p><blockquote>但艾夫斯表示，对于愿意购买下跌趋势股票的投资者来说，快速增长的科技股普遍下跌代表着“退出购物清单”的时刻。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find very compelling given the outsized growth prospects over the next 12 to 18 months,&#34; Ives said.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“我们认为将推动第四次工业革命的许多长期科技赢家现在都处于超卖区域，考虑到未来12至18个月的巨大增长前景，我们发现其估值非常引人注目。”</blockquote></p><p>Ives warned that 2022 will likely remain very volatile for tech investors as the Fed combats inflation with hawkish policies, supply chain disruptions continue to impact semiconductors, and COVID-19 variants continue to spread. But that volatility is par for the course when buying tech stocks with strong growth prospects at bargain prices.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯警告称，随着美联储以鹰派政策对抗通胀、供应链中断继续影响半导体以及COVID-19变种继续传播，2022年对科技投资者来说可能仍将非常不稳定。但当以低价购买具有强劲增长前景的科技股时，这种波动是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;While the December Fed minutes were the straw that broke the camel&#39;s back after a brutal start to the year for tech investors, we caution this is not the time to throw in the white towel on the tech bull cycle,&#34; Ives said, pointing to the continued prospect for governments and enterprises to spend $1 trillion on cloud services over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“虽然12月美联储会议纪要是科技投资者在今年残酷开局后压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草，但我们警告说，现在还不是向科技牛市周期认输的时候。”未来十年，政府和企业将在云服务上花费1万亿美元的持续前景。</blockquote></p><p>Cyber security, 5G connectivity, and big data are additional fuel to stoke the ongoing growth in technology companies, according to Ives.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示，网络安全、5G连接和大数据是推动科技公司持续增长的额外动力。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;While we can fret about the Fed, 10-year spikes, and macro noise, the underlying growth in the tech sector (which is being underestimated by investors) is unparalleled to any period of time we have seen in the last 21 years,&#34; Ives said.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们可能会担心美联储、10年期飙升和宏观噪音，但科技行业的潜在增长（被投资者低估）是我们过去21年来看到的任何时期都无法比拟的，”艾夫斯说。</blockquote></p><p>Tech stocks that should be on investors shopping lists, according to Ives, include Apple,Microsoft,Zscaler,Palo Alto Networks, and Matterport, among others.</p><p><blockquote>Ives表示，应该列入投资者购物清单的科技股包括苹果、微软、Zscaler、Palo Alto Networks和Matterport等。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The tech sell-off sparked by hawkish Fed minutes is a major buying opportunity for investors, Wedbush says<blockquote>韦德布什表示，鹰派美联储会议纪要引发的科技股抛售对投资者来说是一个重大买入机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe tech sell-off sparked by hawkish Fed minutes is a major buying opportunity for investors, Wedbush says<blockquote>韦德布什表示，鹰派美联储会议纪要引发的科技股抛售对投资者来说是一个重大买入机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-07 14:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>A deep sell-off in technology stocks has created a massive buying opportunity for investors, according to Dan Ives of Wedbush.</b></li><li><b>The Nasdaq fell more than 3% on Wednesday after minutes from the Fed revealed the potential for quicker-than-expected interest rate hikes.</b></li><li><b>&#34;Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find very compelling,&#34; Ives said.</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6b633384a96e76caf6a6c6bcba24ca8\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Getty Images / Bryan R. Smith</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><ul><li><b>Wedbush的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示，科技股的大幅抛售为投资者创造了巨大的买入机会。</b></li><li><b>美联储会议纪要显示加息速度可能快于预期，纳斯达克周三下跌逾3%。</b></li><li><b>艾夫斯表示：“我们认为将推动第四次工业革命的许多长期科技赢家现在都处于超卖区域，我们发现其估值非常引人注目。”</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社/布莱恩·R·史密斯</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p>A Fed-driven sell-off in technology stocks is creating a massive buying opportunity for investors, according to a Wednesday note from Dan Ives of Wedbush.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush的丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)周三发布的一份报告称，美联储推动的科技股抛售正在为投资者创造巨大的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p>The Nasdaq 100 plunged more than 3% on Wednesday after minutes released by the Federal Reserve revealed the potential for quicker-than-expected interest rate increases and quantitative tightening later this year. Ark Invest&#39;s flagship ETF sold off as much as 7% and is down 12% year-to-date.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克100指数周三暴跌逾3%，此前美联储公布的会议纪要显示，今年晚些时候加息和量化紧缩的速度可能快于预期。Ark Invest的旗舰ETF抛售高达7%，今年迄今已下跌12%。</blockquote></p><p>But the broad decline in fast-growing technology stocks represents a &#34;get out the shopping list&#34; moment for investors willing to buy downward trending stocks, according to Ives.</p><p><blockquote>但艾夫斯表示，对于愿意购买下跌趋势股票的投资者来说，快速增长的科技股普遍下跌代表着“退出购物清单”的时刻。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find very compelling given the outsized growth prospects over the next 12 to 18 months,&#34; Ives said.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“我们认为将推动第四次工业革命的许多长期科技赢家现在都处于超卖区域，考虑到未来12至18个月的巨大增长前景，我们发现其估值非常引人注目。”</blockquote></p><p>Ives warned that 2022 will likely remain very volatile for tech investors as the Fed combats inflation with hawkish policies, supply chain disruptions continue to impact semiconductors, and COVID-19 variants continue to spread. But that volatility is par for the course when buying tech stocks with strong growth prospects at bargain prices.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯警告称，随着美联储以鹰派政策对抗通胀、供应链中断继续影响半导体以及COVID-19变种继续传播，2022年对科技投资者来说可能仍将非常不稳定。但当以低价购买具有强劲增长前景的科技股时，这种波动是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;While the December Fed minutes were the straw that broke the camel&#39;s back after a brutal start to the year for tech investors, we caution this is not the time to throw in the white towel on the tech bull cycle,&#34; Ives said, pointing to the continued prospect for governments and enterprises to spend $1 trillion on cloud services over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示：“虽然12月美联储会议纪要是科技投资者在今年残酷开局后压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草，但我们警告说，现在还不是向科技牛市周期认输的时候。”未来十年，政府和企业将在云服务上花费1万亿美元的持续前景。</blockquote></p><p>Cyber security, 5G connectivity, and big data are additional fuel to stoke the ongoing growth in technology companies, according to Ives.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯表示，网络安全、5G连接和大数据是推动科技公司持续增长的额外动力。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;While we can fret about the Fed, 10-year spikes, and macro noise, the underlying growth in the tech sector (which is being underestimated by investors) is unparalleled to any period of time we have seen in the last 21 years,&#34; Ives said.</p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们可能会担心美联储、10年期飙升和宏观噪音，但科技行业的潜在增长（被投资者低估）是我们过去21年来看到的任何时期都无法比拟的，”艾夫斯说。</blockquote></p><p>Tech stocks that should be on investors shopping lists, according to Ives, include Apple,Microsoft,Zscaler,Palo Alto Networks, and Matterport, among others.</p><p><blockquote>Ives表示，应该列入投资者购物清单的科技股包括苹果、微软、Zscaler、Palo Alto Networks和Matterport等。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-hawkish-fed-tech-investors-major-buying-opportunity-2022-1\">Markets insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-hawkish-fed-tech-investors-major-buying-opportunity-2022-1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143887891","content_text":"A deep sell-off in technology stocks has created a massive buying opportunity for investors, according to Dan Ives of Wedbush.The Nasdaq fell more than 3% on Wednesday after minutes from the Fed revealed the potential for quicker-than-expected interest rate hikes.\"Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find very compelling,\" Ives said.Getty Images / Bryan R. SmithA Fed-driven sell-off in technology stocks is creating a massive buying opportunity for investors, according to a Wednesday note from Dan Ives of Wedbush.The Nasdaq 100 plunged more than 3% on Wednesday after minutes released by the Federal Reserve revealed the potential for quicker-than-expected interest rate increases and quantitative tightening later this year. Ark Invest's flagship ETF sold off as much as 7% and is down 12% year-to-date.But the broad decline in fast-growing technology stocks represents a \"get out the shopping list\" moment for investors willing to buy downward trending stocks, according to Ives.\"Many of the secular tech winners we believe will drive the 4th Industrial Revolution are now in oversold territory with valuations we find very compelling given the outsized growth prospects over the next 12 to 18 months,\" Ives said.Ives warned that 2022 will likely remain very volatile for tech investors as the Fed combats inflation with hawkish policies, supply chain disruptions continue to impact semiconductors, and COVID-19 variants continue to spread. But that volatility is par for the course when buying tech stocks with strong growth prospects at bargain prices.\"While the December Fed minutes were the straw that broke the camel's back after a brutal start to the year for tech investors, we caution this is not the time to throw in the white towel on the tech bull cycle,\" Ives said, pointing to the continued prospect for governments and enterprises to spend $1 trillion on cloud services over the next decade.Cyber security, 5G connectivity, and big data are additional fuel to stoke the ongoing growth in technology companies, according to Ives.\"While we can fret about the Fed, 10-year spikes, and macro noise, the underlying growth in the tech sector (which is being underestimated by investors) is unparalleled to any period of time we have seen in the last 21 years,\" Ives said.Tech stocks that should be on investors shopping lists, according to Ives, include Apple,Microsoft,Zscaler,Palo Alto Networks, and Matterport, among others.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691720328,"gmtCreate":1640246893797,"gmtModify":1640247087915,"author":{"id":"4100405818069590","authorId":"4100405818069590","name":"ycng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100405818069590","authorIdStr":"4100405818069590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for the insight","listText":"Thanks for the insight","text":"Thanks for the insight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691720328","repostId":"1166370237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166370237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640244394,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166370237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 15:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'<blockquote>圣诞节后，为“通胀牛鞭”做好准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166370237","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy i","content":"<p>The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy in what's called the \"bullwhip effect.\"</p><p><blockquote>美国经济即将经历相当于印第安纳·琼斯最喜欢的玩具的经济效应，即所谓的“牛鞭效应”。</blockquote></p><p> All that means is that one small flick of the wrist leads to a big movement at the end of an oscillating supply-chain whip... and usually, a \"crack\" at the end of the whip.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，手腕的一个小小的轻轻一弹，就会导致振荡供应链鞭子末端的大动作...通常，鞭子末端有一个“裂缝”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should expect two things in the next few months...</p><p><blockquote>未来几个月，投资者应该期待两件事...</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Post-Christmas buying that will make Black Friday and Cyber Monday look like high-priced sidewalk sales by comparison.</li>  <li>All the talk about inflation – now the highest since 1982 – is going to disappear.</li> </ol> <b>How We Got Here</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相比之下，圣诞节后的购买将使黑色星期五和网络星期一看起来像高价的人行道销售。</li><li>所有关于通货膨胀的讨论——现在是1982年以来的最高水平——都将消失。</li></ol><b>我们是如何来到这里的</b></blockquote></p><p> Millions of Americans moved into \"treat yourself\" mode after COVID-19 lockdowns and pandemic stimulus cash magically deposited into their bank accounts. Demand for PlayStations, lumber, Honda CRVs, LG InstaView fridges, five-piece bamboo garden sets, practically&nbsp;<i>everything</i>... has helped drive a sharp economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>在COVID-19封锁和大流行刺激现金神奇地存入他们的银行账户后，数百万美国人进入了“善待自己”模式。对PlayStation、木材、本田CRV、LG InstaView冰箱、五件套竹制花园套装的需求<i>一切</i>...帮助推动了经济的急剧复苏。</blockquote></p><p> But too many people wanting stuff results in a shortage of stuff. There isn't enough to go around. And that shortage is worse if less stuff is produced... or if it's stuck in transit...</p><p><blockquote>但是太多的人想要东西会导致东西的短缺。没有足够的钱。如果生产的产品减少，短缺会更严重...或者如果它在运输途中被卡住了...</blockquote></p><p> Stimulus cash met up with pent-up demand and kicked the knees out of the global supply chain.</p><p><blockquote>刺激资金满足了被压抑的需求，并将膝盖踢出了全球供应链。</blockquote></p><p> It used to be a high form of capitalist triumph that Apple (AAPL) iPhone sources inputs from a network spanning 49 countries. But in a world of supply-chain paralysis, it's a headache.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)iPhone从横跨49个国家的网络获取信息，这曾经是资本主义的一种高度胜利。但在供应链瘫痪的世界里，这是一个令人头疼的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Like other basic infrastructure of modern civilization – the Internet, the electric grid, and cellular networks, for example – the global supply chain is something that we take for granted...&nbsp;<i>until it stops working</i>.</p><p><blockquote>就像现代文明的其他基础设施一样——例如互联网、电网和蜂窝网络——全球供应链是我们认为理所当然的事情...<i>直到它停止工作</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Still, if you really want something today – beef tenderloin, an iPhone 13, a Samsung 65-inch 4K TV – you're likely willing to pay more. After all, a shortage of something doesn't (usually) mean that it's not available at all. Rather, it means that the price goes up.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果你今天真的想要一些东西——牛柳、iPhone 13、三星65英寸4K电视——你可能愿意花更多钱。毕竟，某样东西的短缺（通常）并不意味着它根本不可用。相反，这意味着价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It's not a surprise that year-over-year inflation as of November clocked in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，截至11月份的同比通胀率为6.8%，为1982年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Most Powerful Force in the World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>世界上最强大的力量</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation is right up there, along with gravity, the wrath of a person scorned, and a hungry baby, as&nbsp;<i>a force that will not be denied</i>...</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀就在那里，伴随着重力、被蔑视的人的愤怒和饥饿的婴儿，就像<i>一股不可否认的力量</i>...</blockquote></p><p> But for my money, what's more powerful than that force is&nbsp;<b>mean reversion</b>. It means that for every strong reaction, things eventually swing back the other way... and find their way to the middle again.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，比那股力量更强大的是<b>均值回归</b>.这意味着每一次强烈的反应，事情最终都会反过来....再次找到通往中间的路。</blockquote></p><p> When applied to investing, mean reversion refers to extreme price movements eventually correcting – reverting to the mean, like a rubber band. And when applied to many months of global supply-chain constrictions... sooner or later, things will spring back.</p><p><blockquote>当应用于投资时，均值回归指的是极端的价格变动最终会修正——像橡皮筋一样恢复到均值。当应用于数月的全球供应链紧缩时...迟早，事情会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> We can already see it in the sharp decline in the cost of transporting goods. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for capacity to ship dry goods, hit 15-year highs in early October – and since then, has fallen by more than half. Shipping rates are falling, and available ship storage capacity is rising – the opposite of what happens when global supply chains are under strain.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经可以从货物运输成本的大幅下降中看到这一点。衡量干货运力需求的波罗的海干散货运力指数在10月初触及15年来的高点，此后已下跌一半以上。运费正在下降，可用的船舶存储能力正在上升——这与全球供应链面临压力时发生的情况相反。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, a number of global automakers have indicated that they expect semiconductor supplies to increase... the shortage of which has been a big bottleneck for cars, along with everything else that uses microchips – from cellphones to cars to football helmets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些全球汽车制造商表示，他们预计半导体供应将增加...芯片的短缺一直是汽车的一大瓶颈，其他使用微芯片的东西也是如此——从手机到汽车再到足球头盔。</blockquote></p><p> And since September, monthly manufacturing data from his Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index has shown strong improvement throughout much of Asia, led by Vietnam and Malaysia... That means output throughout that region – home to four of the world's six biggest manufacturing countries – is rebounding.</p><p><blockquote>自9月份以来，Markit采购经理人指数的月度制造业数据显示，以越南和马来西亚为首的亚洲大部分地区都出现了强劲改善……这意味着整个地区——世界六大制造业国家中的四个——的产出正在反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here Comes the Bullwhip</b></p><p><blockquote><b>牛鞭来了</b></blockquote></p><p> You know what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>你知道接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Retailers that have spent months offering warmed-over \"global supply chain problem\" apologies to consumers are about to find themselves swamped with goods. All the Costco couches, Instant Pots, packages of dried mango, Teslas, and everything else that's been on order, will arrive... along with a lot more that wasn't on order.</p><p><blockquote>花了几个月时间向消费者道歉的零售商即将发现自己被商品淹没了。所有好市多的沙发、速溶壶、芒果干包、特斯拉和其他所有订购的东西都会到达...还有很多没有订购的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Shortages will turn into surpluses, and \"out of stock\" will become \"inventory reduction sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>短缺会变成过剩，“断货”会变成“减库存销售”。</blockquote></p><p> The \"bullwhip effect\" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.</p><p><blockquote>“牛鞭效应”是当需求扭曲误导供应链时会发生的事情...它即将全力袭来。</blockquote></p><p> So if you can convince the family to postpone Christmas for a while, you'll get a lot more return on your Christmas dollar next year. That's because everything is going to be on the mother of all sales, as the global supply chain finally chokes up all the goods that haven't been on their way.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你能说服家人推迟一段时间过圣诞节，明年你的圣诞钱会有更多的回报。这是因为一切都将成为所有销售之母，因为全球供应链最终会堵塞所有尚未上路的商品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极反向指标</b></blockquote></p><p> And there's another positive side effect...&nbsp;<i>lower inflation</i>.</p><p><blockquote>还有另一个积极的副作用...<i>降低通货膨胀</i>.</blockquote></p><p> It's not complicated... As the upward price pressure on goods across the economy dissipates, inflation will fall.</p><p><blockquote>这并不复杂...随着整个经济中商品价格上涨压力的消散，通胀将会下降。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>New York Times</i>bestselling author Jim Rickards&nbsp;recently appeared on my colleague Daniela Cambone's show&nbsp;to say you should \"expect inflation to come down very quickly,\" due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve.... And you could see severe, \"tightening into weakness,\" with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts. (Quoth the Raven covered that interview here on this site as well.)</p><p><blockquote><i>纽约时报</i>畅销书作家吉姆·里卡兹（Jim Rickards）最近出现在我的同事丹妮拉·坎伯恩（Daniela Cambone）的节目中说，由于美联储预计即将加息，你应该“预计通胀会很快下降”....他预测，你可能会看到严重的“紧缩变成疲软”，明年可能会加息三次。（Quoth the Raven也在本网站上报道了那次采访。）</blockquote></p><p> What's more, there's another reason for inflation to decline... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally waved the white flag and admitted that inflation isn't \"transitory.\" That's been the Fed's preferred term for inflation, which has been steadily rising all year, from an annual rate of 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通胀下降还有另一个原因...美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔终于举起了白旗，承认通胀不是“暂时的”。这是美联储首选的通胀术语，通胀全年一直在稳步上升，从1月份的年率1.4%升至11月份的6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Transitory\" suggested that as the economy moved past pandemic-induced supply shortages, and as demand fueled by COVID-19 stimulus cash dissipated, recent price increases would gradually disappear.</p><p><blockquote>“暂时性”表明，随着经济摆脱大流行引发的供应短缺，以及COVID-19刺激现金推动的需求消散，近期的价格上涨将逐渐消失。</blockquote></p><p> And ironically, just as the Fed acknowledged the obvious – that inflation would be around for longer than a few months –&nbsp;<i>it's finally going to go away</i>.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，正如美联储承认显而易见的事实——通胀将持续超过几个月——<i>它终于要消失了</i>.</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator... the proverbial bell ringing at the top of the market.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在成为最终的反向指标...众所周知，市场顶部的钟声敲响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter Christmas, Get Ready for the 'Inflation Bullwhip'<blockquote>圣诞节后，为“通胀牛鞭”做好准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 15:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy in what's called the \"bullwhip effect.\"</p><p><blockquote>美国经济即将经历相当于印第安纳·琼斯最喜欢的玩具的经济效应，即所谓的“牛鞭效应”。</blockquote></p><p> All that means is that one small flick of the wrist leads to a big movement at the end of an oscillating supply-chain whip... and usually, a \"crack\" at the end of the whip.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，手腕的一个小小的轻轻一弹，就会导致振荡供应链鞭子末端的大动作...通常，鞭子末端有一个“裂缝”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should expect two things in the next few months...</p><p><blockquote>未来几个月，投资者应该期待两件事...</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Post-Christmas buying that will make Black Friday and Cyber Monday look like high-priced sidewalk sales by comparison.</li>  <li>All the talk about inflation – now the highest since 1982 – is going to disappear.</li> </ol> <b>How We Got Here</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>相比之下，圣诞节后的购买将使黑色星期五和网络星期一看起来像高价的人行道销售。</li><li>所有关于通货膨胀的讨论——现在是1982年以来的最高水平——都将消失。</li></ol><b>我们是如何来到这里的</b></blockquote></p><p> Millions of Americans moved into \"treat yourself\" mode after COVID-19 lockdowns and pandemic stimulus cash magically deposited into their bank accounts. Demand for PlayStations, lumber, Honda CRVs, LG InstaView fridges, five-piece bamboo garden sets, practically&nbsp;<i>everything</i>... has helped drive a sharp economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>在COVID-19封锁和大流行刺激现金神奇地存入他们的银行账户后，数百万美国人进入了“善待自己”模式。对PlayStation、木材、本田CRV、LG InstaView冰箱、五件套竹制花园套装的需求<i>一切</i>...帮助推动了经济的急剧复苏。</blockquote></p><p> But too many people wanting stuff results in a shortage of stuff. There isn't enough to go around. And that shortage is worse if less stuff is produced... or if it's stuck in transit...</p><p><blockquote>但是太多的人想要东西会导致东西的短缺。没有足够的钱。如果生产的产品减少，短缺会更严重...或者如果它在运输途中被卡住了...</blockquote></p><p> Stimulus cash met up with pent-up demand and kicked the knees out of the global supply chain.</p><p><blockquote>刺激资金满足了被压抑的需求，并将膝盖踢出了全球供应链。</blockquote></p><p> It used to be a high form of capitalist triumph that Apple (AAPL) iPhone sources inputs from a network spanning 49 countries. But in a world of supply-chain paralysis, it's a headache.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)iPhone从横跨49个国家的网络获取信息，这曾经是资本主义的一种高度胜利。但在供应链瘫痪的世界里，这是一个令人头疼的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Like other basic infrastructure of modern civilization – the Internet, the electric grid, and cellular networks, for example – the global supply chain is something that we take for granted...&nbsp;<i>until it stops working</i>.</p><p><blockquote>就像现代文明的其他基础设施一样——例如互联网、电网和蜂窝网络——全球供应链是我们认为理所当然的事情...<i>直到它停止工作</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Still, if you really want something today – beef tenderloin, an iPhone 13, a Samsung 65-inch 4K TV – you're likely willing to pay more. After all, a shortage of something doesn't (usually) mean that it's not available at all. Rather, it means that the price goes up.</p><p><blockquote>不过，如果你今天真的想要一些东西——牛柳、iPhone 13、三星65英寸4K电视——你可能愿意花更多钱。毕竟，某样东西的短缺（通常）并不意味着它根本不可用。相反，这意味着价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It's not a surprise that year-over-year inflation as of November clocked in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，截至11月份的同比通胀率为6.8%，为1982年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Most Powerful Force in the World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>世界上最强大的力量</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation is right up there, along with gravity, the wrath of a person scorned, and a hungry baby, as&nbsp;<i>a force that will not be denied</i>...</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀就在那里，伴随着重力、被蔑视的人的愤怒和饥饿的婴儿，就像<i>一股不可否认的力量</i>...</blockquote></p><p> But for my money, what's more powerful than that force is&nbsp;<b>mean reversion</b>. It means that for every strong reaction, things eventually swing back the other way... and find their way to the middle again.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，比那股力量更强大的是<b>均值回归</b>.这意味着每一次强烈的反应，事情最终都会反过来....再次找到通往中间的路。</blockquote></p><p> When applied to investing, mean reversion refers to extreme price movements eventually correcting – reverting to the mean, like a rubber band. And when applied to many months of global supply-chain constrictions... sooner or later, things will spring back.</p><p><blockquote>当应用于投资时，均值回归指的是极端的价格变动最终会修正——像橡皮筋一样恢复到均值。当应用于数月的全球供应链紧缩时...迟早，事情会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> We can already see it in the sharp decline in the cost of transporting goods. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for capacity to ship dry goods, hit 15-year highs in early October – and since then, has fallen by more than half. Shipping rates are falling, and available ship storage capacity is rising – the opposite of what happens when global supply chains are under strain.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经可以从货物运输成本的大幅下降中看到这一点。衡量干货运力需求的波罗的海干散货运力指数在10月初触及15年来的高点，此后已下跌一半以上。运费正在下降，可用的船舶存储能力正在上升——这与全球供应链面临压力时发生的情况相反。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, a number of global automakers have indicated that they expect semiconductor supplies to increase... the shortage of which has been a big bottleneck for cars, along with everything else that uses microchips – from cellphones to cars to football helmets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些全球汽车制造商表示，他们预计半导体供应将增加...芯片的短缺一直是汽车的一大瓶颈，其他使用微芯片的东西也是如此——从手机到汽车再到足球头盔。</blockquote></p><p> And since September, monthly manufacturing data from his Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index has shown strong improvement throughout much of Asia, led by Vietnam and Malaysia... That means output throughout that region – home to four of the world's six biggest manufacturing countries – is rebounding.</p><p><blockquote>自9月份以来，Markit采购经理人指数的月度制造业数据显示，以越南和马来西亚为首的亚洲大部分地区都出现了强劲改善……这意味着整个地区——世界六大制造业国家中的四个——的产出正在反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here Comes the Bullwhip</b></p><p><blockquote><b>牛鞭来了</b></blockquote></p><p> You know what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>你知道接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></p><p> Retailers that have spent months offering warmed-over \"global supply chain problem\" apologies to consumers are about to find themselves swamped with goods. All the Costco couches, Instant Pots, packages of dried mango, Teslas, and everything else that's been on order, will arrive... along with a lot more that wasn't on order.</p><p><blockquote>花了几个月时间向消费者道歉的零售商即将发现自己被商品淹没了。所有好市多的沙发、速溶壶、芒果干包、特斯拉和其他所有订购的东西都会到达...还有很多没有订购的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Shortages will turn into surpluses, and \"out of stock\" will become \"inventory reduction sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>短缺会变成过剩，“断货”会变成“减库存销售”。</blockquote></p><p> The \"bullwhip effect\" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.</p><p><blockquote>“牛鞭效应”是当需求扭曲误导供应链时会发生的事情...它即将全力袭来。</blockquote></p><p> So if you can convince the family to postpone Christmas for a while, you'll get a lot more return on your Christmas dollar next year. That's because everything is going to be on the mother of all sales, as the global supply chain finally chokes up all the goods that haven't been on their way.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你能说服家人推迟一段时间过圣诞节，明年你的圣诞钱会有更多的回报。这是因为一切都将成为所有销售之母，因为全球供应链最终会堵塞所有尚未上路的商品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极反向指标</b></blockquote></p><p> And there's another positive side effect...&nbsp;<i>lower inflation</i>.</p><p><blockquote>还有另一个积极的副作用...<i>降低通货膨胀</i>.</blockquote></p><p> It's not complicated... As the upward price pressure on goods across the economy dissipates, inflation will fall.</p><p><blockquote>这并不复杂...随着整个经济中商品价格上涨压力的消散，通胀将会下降。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>New York Times</i>bestselling author Jim Rickards&nbsp;recently appeared on my colleague Daniela Cambone's show&nbsp;to say you should \"expect inflation to come down very quickly,\" due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve.... And you could see severe, \"tightening into weakness,\" with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts. (Quoth the Raven covered that interview here on this site as well.)</p><p><blockquote><i>纽约时报</i>畅销书作家吉姆·里卡兹（Jim Rickards）最近出现在我的同事丹妮拉·坎伯恩（Daniela Cambone）的节目中说，由于美联储预计即将加息，你应该“预计通胀会很快下降”....他预测，你可能会看到严重的“紧缩变成疲软”，明年可能会加息三次。（Quoth the Raven也在本网站上报道了那次采访。）</blockquote></p><p> What's more, there's another reason for inflation to decline... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally waved the white flag and admitted that inflation isn't \"transitory.\" That's been the Fed's preferred term for inflation, which has been steadily rising all year, from an annual rate of 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November.</p><p><blockquote>此外，通胀下降还有另一个原因...美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔终于举起了白旗，承认通胀不是“暂时的”。这是美联储首选的通胀术语，通胀全年一直在稳步上升，从1月份的年率1.4%升至11月份的6.8%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Transitory\" suggested that as the economy moved past pandemic-induced supply shortages, and as demand fueled by COVID-19 stimulus cash dissipated, recent price increases would gradually disappear.</p><p><blockquote>“暂时性”表明，随着经济摆脱大流行引发的供应短缺，以及COVID-19刺激现金推动的需求消散，近期的价格上涨将逐渐消失。</blockquote></p><p> And ironically, just as the Fed acknowledged the obvious – that inflation would be around for longer than a few months –&nbsp;<i>it's finally going to go away</i>.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，正如美联储承认显而易见的事实——通胀将持续超过几个月——<i>它终于要消失了</i>.</blockquote></p><p> The Fed is becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator... the proverbial bell ringing at the top of the market.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在成为最终的反向指标...众所周知，市场顶部的钟声敲响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-12-22/after-christmas-get-ready-inflation-bullwhip\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-12-22/after-christmas-get-ready-inflation-bullwhip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166370237","content_text":"The American economy is about to experience the economic equivalent of Indiana Jones' favorite toy in what's called the \"bullwhip effect.\"\nAll that means is that one small flick of the wrist leads to a big movement at the end of an oscillating supply-chain whip... and usually, a \"crack\" at the end of the whip.\nInvestors should expect two things in the next few months...\n\nPost-Christmas buying that will make Black Friday and Cyber Monday look like high-priced sidewalk sales by comparison.\nAll the talk about inflation – now the highest since 1982 – is going to disappear.\n\nHow We Got Here\nMillions of Americans moved into \"treat yourself\" mode after COVID-19 lockdowns and pandemic stimulus cash magically deposited into their bank accounts. Demand for PlayStations, lumber, Honda CRVs, LG InstaView fridges, five-piece bamboo garden sets, practically everything... has helped drive a sharp economic recovery.\nBut too many people wanting stuff results in a shortage of stuff. There isn't enough to go around. And that shortage is worse if less stuff is produced... or if it's stuck in transit...\nStimulus cash met up with pent-up demand and kicked the knees out of the global supply chain.\nIt used to be a high form of capitalist triumph that Apple (AAPL) iPhone sources inputs from a network spanning 49 countries. But in a world of supply-chain paralysis, it's a headache.\nLike other basic infrastructure of modern civilization – the Internet, the electric grid, and cellular networks, for example – the global supply chain is something that we take for granted... until it stops working.\nStill, if you really want something today – beef tenderloin, an iPhone 13, a Samsung 65-inch 4K TV – you're likely willing to pay more. After all, a shortage of something doesn't (usually) mean that it's not available at all. Rather, it means that the price goes up.\nIt's not a surprise that year-over-year inflation as of November clocked in at 6.8%, the highest reading since 1982.\nThe Most Powerful Force in the World\nInflation is right up there, along with gravity, the wrath of a person scorned, and a hungry baby, as a force that will not be denied...\nBut for my money, what's more powerful than that force is mean reversion. It means that for every strong reaction, things eventually swing back the other way... and find their way to the middle again.\nWhen applied to investing, mean reversion refers to extreme price movements eventually correcting – reverting to the mean, like a rubber band. And when applied to many months of global supply-chain constrictions... sooner or later, things will spring back.\nWe can already see it in the sharp decline in the cost of transporting goods. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures demand for capacity to ship dry goods, hit 15-year highs in early October – and since then, has fallen by more than half. Shipping rates are falling, and available ship storage capacity is rising – the opposite of what happens when global supply chains are under strain.\nMeanwhile, a number of global automakers have indicated that they expect semiconductor supplies to increase... the shortage of which has been a big bottleneck for cars, along with everything else that uses microchips – from cellphones to cars to football helmets.\nAnd since September, monthly manufacturing data from his Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index has shown strong improvement throughout much of Asia, led by Vietnam and Malaysia... That means output throughout that region – home to four of the world's six biggest manufacturing countries – is rebounding.\nHere Comes the Bullwhip\nYou know what comes next.\nRetailers that have spent months offering warmed-over \"global supply chain problem\" apologies to consumers are about to find themselves swamped with goods. All the Costco couches, Instant Pots, packages of dried mango, Teslas, and everything else that's been on order, will arrive... along with a lot more that wasn't on order.\nShortages will turn into surpluses, and \"out of stock\" will become \"inventory reduction sales.\"\nThe \"bullwhip effect\" is what happens when demand distortion misinforms the supply chain... and it's about to hit in full force.\nSo if you can convince the family to postpone Christmas for a while, you'll get a lot more return on your Christmas dollar next year. That's because everything is going to be on the mother of all sales, as the global supply chain finally chokes up all the goods that haven't been on their way.\nThe Ultimate Contrarian Indicator\nAnd there's another positive side effect... lower inflation.\nIt's not complicated... As the upward price pressure on goods across the economy dissipates, inflation will fall.\nNew York Timesbestselling author Jim Rickards recently appeared on my colleague Daniela Cambone's show to say you should \"expect inflation to come down very quickly,\" due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve.... And you could see severe, \"tightening into weakness,\" with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts. (Quoth the Raven covered that interview here on this site as well.)\nWhat's more, there's another reason for inflation to decline... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell finally waved the white flag and admitted that inflation isn't \"transitory.\" That's been the Fed's preferred term for inflation, which has been steadily rising all year, from an annual rate of 1.4% in January to 6.8% in November.\n\"Transitory\" suggested that as the economy moved past pandemic-induced supply shortages, and as demand fueled by COVID-19 stimulus cash dissipated, recent price increases would gradually disappear.\nAnd ironically, just as the Fed acknowledged the obvious – that inflation would be around for longer than a few months – it's finally going to go away.\nThe Fed is becoming the ultimate contrarian indicator... the proverbial bell ringing at the top of the market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}