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Jmyee
2021-12-23
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Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>
Jmyee
2021-12-23
Good
5 Reasons Apple Stock Can Trade Higher From Here<blockquote>苹果股票可以从这里走高的5个原因</blockquote>
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l":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691456244","repostId":"1164467804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164467804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640230809,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164467804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164467804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.Apple Inc. stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. U","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li> <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li> <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li> <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨34%，大幅跑赢纳斯达克100指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股存在泡沫，因为其价格正在迅速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上慢于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将对苹果提出看涨论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL)股票在2021年表现稳健。该指数今年上涨了35%，表现强劲，优于纳斯达克100指数和标普500。苹果的2021年业绩是该公司长期获胜的最新一年，它表明股票永远不会太大而无法击败市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的胜利应该得到修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称AAPL被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是泡沫。”</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个即将破裂的泡沫。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“出售AAPL？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都明确悲观。一些人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总体而言，认为苹果是泡沫，或者至少被高估的情绪正在变得普遍。如果你看看TipRanks的情绪图表，就会发现对苹果股票的情绪明显负面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks情绪图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward <b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的悲观情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（FB）。Meta是一家因违反反垄断法而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分几乎完美。因此，没有什么特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – <b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只拥有宽护城河的股票，是少数几家同时控制大多数用户硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的策略，但很少有人成功。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，足以支付高价购买苹果的产品。很少有其他科技公司拥有这样的优势——<b>任天堂</b>(OTCPK：NTDOY)如果您将游戏视为技术，则是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只拥有宽阔护城河的股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果“垄断”了某一套软件体验。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，它是全球第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍然具有显着盈利和增长的潜力。因此，我将在本文中对苹果提出看涨论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的一点是它的竞争地位。该公司在如此广泛的不同市场开展业务，以至于很难确定其业务不仅仅是“技术”。从技术上讲，该公司的SIC代码（行业分类）是7372，表示“预打包软件”。然而，这并没有涵盖苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得注意的一些竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)-智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的竞争对手的全面名单是不可能的，因为该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务。除了上述所有名称之外，苹果可以说还在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售采用苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，使其与数十家公司展开默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据Counterpoint Research和Statista的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国占47%，全球占14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量方面落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑方面领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它可能会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才涉足智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以50%的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，值得探索苹果最有前途的两个类别：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在实际上是M1家族芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的新型芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一个8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16 GB内存（物理内置在芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。除此之外，还有两款新型号——M1 Pro和M1 Max——对基本型号进行了改进。列出这些高端型号的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的统计数据是M1 Max的570亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的MAC电脑本身可以作为游戏装备。苹果在笔记本电脑和台式机领域已经拥有相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说是难以捉摸的。因此，苹果电脑产品线的加速增长潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，为25%，而后者为30%。然而，服务是有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，它们也可以继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，期望苹果的硬件销售像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，苹果可以在硬件销售不佳的情况下保持总收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以转向苹果的财务状况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均未达到预期；然而，从绝对值来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果交付了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收830亿美元，增长29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为1.24美元，增长69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告了1040亿美元的TTM运营现金。这比去年增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。按市值计算，苹果是世界上最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均以成长型股票的水平增长。这一个季度并非侥幸。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，苹果上述指标的五年复合年增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这也是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这就抓住了本文论点的核心：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。其估值相当高，市盈率为30倍，销售额为7.7倍，现金流为26倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利以22%的速度增长，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去12个月的PEG比率仅为0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超盈利公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家主要的硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击的影响。本文概述的看涨论点面临的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司大幅削减了iPhone产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个始终存在的威胁，该公司依靠现成的原材料供应来保持销售流动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某物变得越大，需要的增幅就越大，才能推动与过去持平的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小工具，第一年就卖出了一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小工具，你的销售额就会翻倍。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额为3320亿美元，你需要客户在第十一年拿出6640亿美元来实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。碰巧的是，苹果第四季度830亿美元的年收入达到了3320亿美元。因此，未来将更难实现增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to <b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求它保持在技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出了明显优于iPhone的产品，这可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，为了<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机制造商。科技行业的历史上充斥着公司互相吃午餐的情况，尽管苹果在研发上投入了数十亿美元，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险是非常真实的，在几份季度报告中都被认为是一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、良好的增长和并非不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只值得做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们应该仍然不错。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li> <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li> <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li> <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨34%，大幅跑赢纳斯达克100指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股存在泡沫，因为其价格正在迅速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上慢于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将对苹果提出看涨论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL)股票在2021年表现稳健。该指数今年上涨了35%，表现强劲，优于纳斯达克100指数和标普500。苹果的2021年业绩是该公司长期获胜的最新一年，它表明股票永远不会太大而无法击败市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的胜利应该得到修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称AAPL被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是泡沫。”</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个即将破裂的泡沫。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“出售AAPL？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都明确悲观。一些人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总体而言，认为苹果是泡沫，或者至少被高估的情绪正在变得普遍。如果你看看TipRanks的情绪图表，就会发现对苹果股票的情绪明显负面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks情绪图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward <b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的悲观情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（FB）。Meta是一家因违反反垄断法而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分几乎完美。因此，没有什么特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – <b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只拥有宽护城河的股票，是少数几家同时控制大多数用户硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的策略，但很少有人成功。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，足以支付高价购买苹果的产品。很少有其他科技公司拥有这样的优势——<b>任天堂</b>(OTCPK：NTDOY)如果您将游戏视为技术，则是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只拥有宽阔护城河的股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果“垄断”了某一套软件体验。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，它是全球第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍然具有显着盈利和增长的潜力。因此，我将在本文中对苹果提出看涨论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的一点是它的竞争地位。该公司在如此广泛的不同市场开展业务，以至于很难确定其业务不仅仅是“技术”。从技术上讲，该公司的SIC代码（行业分类）是7372，表示“预打包软件”。然而，这并没有涵盖苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得注意的一些竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)-智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的竞争对手的全面名单是不可能的，因为该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务。除了上述所有名称之外，苹果可以说还在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售采用苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，使其与数十家公司展开默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据Counterpoint Research和Statista的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国占47%，全球占14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量方面落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑方面领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它可能会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才涉足智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以50%的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，值得探索苹果最有前途的两个类别：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在实际上是M1家族芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的新型芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一个8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16 GB内存（物理内置在芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。除此之外，还有两款新型号——M1 Pro和M1 Max——对基本型号进行了改进。列出这些高端型号的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的统计数据是M1 Max的570亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的MAC电脑本身可以作为游戏装备。苹果在笔记本电脑和台式机领域已经拥有相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说是难以捉摸的。因此，苹果电脑产品线的加速增长潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，为25%，而后者为30%。然而，服务是有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，它们也可以继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，期望苹果的硬件销售像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，苹果可以在硬件销售不佳的情况下保持总收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以转向苹果的财务状况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均未达到预期；然而，从绝对值来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果交付了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收830亿美元，增长29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为1.24美元，增长69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告了1040亿美元的TTM运营现金。这比去年增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。按市值计算，苹果是世界上最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均以成长型股票的水平增长。这一个季度并非侥幸。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，苹果上述指标的五年复合年增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这也是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这就抓住了本文论点的核心：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。其估值相当高，市盈率为30倍，销售额为7.7倍，现金流为26倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利以22%的速度增长，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去12个月的PEG比率仅为0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超盈利公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家主要的硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击的影响。本文概述的看涨论点面临的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司大幅削减了iPhone产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个始终存在的威胁，该公司依靠现成的原材料供应来保持销售流动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某物变得越大，需要的增幅就越大，才能推动与过去持平的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小工具，第一年就卖出了一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小工具，你的销售额就会翻倍。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额为3320亿美元，你需要客户在第十一年拿出6640亿美元来实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。碰巧的是，苹果第四季度830亿美元的年收入达到了3320亿美元。因此，未来将更难实现增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to <b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求它保持在技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出了明显优于iPhone的产品，这可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，为了<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机制造商。科技行业的历史上充斥着公司互相吃午餐的情况，尽管苹果在研发上投入了数十亿美元，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险是非常真实的，在几份季度报告中都被认为是一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、良好的增长和并非不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只值得做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们应该仍然不错。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164467804","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.\nIn this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nApple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.\nWith that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:\n\n“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”\n“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”\n“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”\n\nNot all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.\nSource: TipRanks’ sentiment chart\nThe bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.\n\nWhich begs the question:\nWhy?\nApple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.\nThis makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.\nThis advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.\nSome of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:\n\nSamsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.\nHuawei- smartphones.\nAlphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.\nMicrosoft(MSFT) - laptops.\nDell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.\nAdobe(ADBE) - creative software.\nAnd many more.\n\nA comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.\nHow is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:\n\nSmartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.\nLaptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.\nSmartwatches: over 50% globally.\nTablets: 35% globally.\n\nOn the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services\nSpeaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services.\nThe M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:\n\nAn 8-core CPU.\nA 7-core GPU.\n8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).\n5nm process.\n16 billion transistors.\n3.2 GHZ max clock rate.\n\nIncredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.\nNext up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.\nFinancials and Valuation\nNow we can turn to Apple’s financials.\nApple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:\n\n$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.\n$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.\n$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.\n$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.\n\nThe company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.\nThese were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:\n\nRevenue: 11%.\nOperating income: 12.7%.\nNet income: 15.7%.\nDiluted EPS: 22%.\nCash flow: 10.7%.\n\nAgain very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:\nApple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.\nRisks and Challenges\nWhile Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:\n\nSupply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.\nScale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.\nDisruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.\n\nThe above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691464056,"gmtCreate":1640229140008,"gmtModify":1640229180642,"author":{"id":"4101239823274660","authorId":"4101239823274660","name":"Jmyee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4101239823274660","authorIdStr":"4101239823274660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691464056","repostId":"1152254856","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152254856","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640223332,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152254856?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 09:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Reasons Apple Stock Can Trade Higher From Here<blockquote>苹果股票可以从这里走高的5个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152254856","media":"Barrons","summary":"Over the last two years,Apple stock has rallied an extraordinary 141%, driving the company’s market ","content":"<p>Over the last two years,Apple stock has rallied an extraordinary 141%, driving the company’s market capitalization to nearly $3 trillion, as the company saw remarkable growth across every business segment – iPhones, Macs, iPads, wearables and services.</p><p><blockquote>过去两年，苹果股价上涨了141%，推动公司市值达到近3万亿美元，该公司在iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和服务等各个业务领域都实现了显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> There are reasons to expect higher highs—and many new gadgets—ahead.</p><p><blockquote>有理由期待未来会出现更高的高点和许多新产品。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Jim Suva in a new research note repeated his Buy rating on Apple shares (ticker: AAPL). He lifted his price target to $200, from $170, which implies about 15% appreciation from the stock’s current level. Apple shares on Wednesday rose 1.5%, to $175.64.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Jim Suva在一份新的研究报告中重申了对苹果股票（股票代码：AAPL）的买入评级。他将目标价从170美元上调至200美元，这意味着该股较当前水平升值约15%。苹果股价周三上涨1.5%，至175.64美元。</blockquote></p><p> Suva offers a list of five reasons Apple can climb even higher in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Suva列出了苹果在2022年可以爬得更高的五个原因。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, he sees continued revenue growth, driven in particular by strong iPhone demand and growth in related services. While investor sentiment on consumer hardware has turned “very dour” on concerns that demand for PCs and other gear will revert to prepandemic levels, Suva isn’t buying that view. He estimates that the installed base of iPhones has reached more than 1 billion, with replacement cycle times remaining the same or shortening.</p><p><blockquote>首先，他预计收入将持续增长，特别是在强劲的iPhone需求和相关服务增长的推动下。尽管由于担心个人电脑和其他设备的需求将恢复到大流行前的水平，投资者对消费硬件的情绪变得“非常悲观”，但苏瓦并不相信这种观点。他估计，iPhone的装机量已超过10亿部，更换周期时间保持不变或缩短。</blockquote></p><p> “This implies that users value their devices and technology and will likely continue to invest in upgrades on a regular basis,” Suva writes. “Assuming that replacement rates hover around three years for smartphones and modeling for some of these upgrades to be refurbished devices, we believe that this suggests that the installed base upgrades still have room to translate into unit growth ahead, especially as 5G continues to roll out across major economies.”</p><p><blockquote>“这意味着用户重视他们的设备和技术，并且可能会继续定期投资升级，”苏瓦写道。“假设智能手机的更换率徘徊在三年左右，并且将其中一些升级建模为翻新设备，我们认为，这表明安装基础升级仍有空间转化为未来的单位增长，特别是在5G继续推出的情况下。主要经济体。”</blockquote></p><p> Suva thinks iPhone 14, coming next fall, will include a faster processor, longer battery life, and higher-resolution cameras. He sees Apple launching a foldable phone in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Suva认为明年秋天推出的iPhone 14将包括更快的处理器、更长的电池寿命和更高分辨率的摄像头。他预计苹果将于2023年推出可折叠手机。</blockquote></p><p> He’s also bullish on the coming debut of a virtual/augmented reality headset, widely expected in the 2022 second half. Citi believes the AR/VR market “is poised for growth,” he writes. “The technology is the core of Apple’s next big hardware push beyond the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.” He expects details on the product to emerge at the company’s annual developers conference in June. He expects a device priced in the $750 to $1,000 range.</p><p><blockquote>他还看好虚拟/增强现实耳机即将推出，人们普遍预计将于2022年下半年推出。他写道，花旗认为AR/VR市场“已蓄势待发”。“这项技术是苹果在iPhone、iPad和苹果手表之外的下一个重大硬件推动的核心。”他预计该产品的细节将在6月份的公司年度开发者大会上公布。他预计这款设备的价格在750美元到1000美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for his bullishness is that service revenue growth isn’t likely to be affected by regulatory changes, Suva writes. While litigation has targeted Apple’s limitations on the use of third-party payment systems in apps, Suva thinks the outcome won’t be material to revenue.</p><p><blockquote>苏瓦写道，他乐观的另一个原因是服务收入增长不太可能受到监管变化的影响。虽然诉讼的目标是苹果对在应用程序中使用第三方支付系统的限制，但Suva认为结果对收入不会产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> “Many users prefer convenience and security over a small amount of financial savings,” he writes. “For developers, chasing higher margins via off-store billing is likely to come at the expense of lower conversion rates and, by extension, lower revenues.”</p><p><blockquote>“许多用户更喜欢便利和安全，而不是少量的财务节省，”他写道。“对于开发商来说，通过店外计费追求更高的利润可能会以降低转化率为代价，进而降低收入。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple shares, Suva adds, will also continue to benefit from the company’s aggressive posture on returning cash to holders via dividends and especially stock repurchases. With Apple generating more than $100 billion a year in free cash flow, he says, the company is likely to return at least $100 billion a year to holders. He notes that the company has announced new buyback plans in May in each of the last four years, and he sees another $90 billion authorization ahead—and he sees a 10% dividend hike coming.</p><p><blockquote>苏瓦补充说，苹果股票还将继续受益于该公司通过股息，特别是股票回购向持有人返还现金的积极姿态。他表示，由于苹果每年产生超过1000亿美元的自由现金流，该公司每年可能会向持有人返还至少1000亿美元。他指出，过去四年中，该公司每年5月都会宣布新的回购计划，他预计未来还会有900亿美元的授权，并且股息将上调10%。</blockquote></p><p> Not least, Suva is upbeat on the prospect of an Apple Car. He expects a launch in 2025 or sooner.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Suva对苹果汽车的前景持乐观态度。他预计将于2025年或更早推出。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple entering the auto market is a matter not of ‘if’ but ‘when and to what extent,’” he writes. The analyst lays out two scenarios for Apple and cars. The first is that the company goes all in, and builds an Apple Car via outsourced production. The result could be a 10% to 15% boost to overall sales, with a 5% to 11% lift to Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. A more modest scenario has Apple focusing on the IT ecosystem for cars, like CarPlay, with a 2% lift to sales, and a 1% to 2% boost to Ebitda, he writes.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果进入汽车市场不是‘是否’的问题，而是‘何时以及在多大程度上’的问题，”他写道。分析师列出了苹果和汽车的两种情景。首先是该公司全力以赴，通过外包生产制造苹果汽车。其结果可能是整体销售额增长10%至15%，Ebitda（即息税折旧摊销前利润）增长5%至11%。他写道，更温和的情况是，苹果专注于CarPlay等汽车IT生态系统，销售额将增长2%，Ebitda将增长1%至2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Reasons Apple Stock Can Trade Higher From Here<blockquote>苹果股票可以从这里走高的5个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Reasons Apple Stock Can Trade Higher From Here<blockquote>苹果股票可以从这里走高的5个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 09:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Over the last two years,Apple stock has rallied an extraordinary 141%, driving the company’s market capitalization to nearly $3 trillion, as the company saw remarkable growth across every business segment – iPhones, Macs, iPads, wearables and services.</p><p><blockquote>过去两年，苹果股价上涨了141%，推动公司市值达到近3万亿美元，该公司在iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和服务等各个业务领域都实现了显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> There are reasons to expect higher highs—and many new gadgets—ahead.</p><p><blockquote>有理由期待未来会出现更高的高点和许多新产品。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Jim Suva in a new research note repeated his Buy rating on Apple shares (ticker: AAPL). He lifted his price target to $200, from $170, which implies about 15% appreciation from the stock’s current level. Apple shares on Wednesday rose 1.5%, to $175.64.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Jim Suva在一份新的研究报告中重申了对苹果股票（股票代码：AAPL）的买入评级。他将目标价从170美元上调至200美元，这意味着该股较当前水平升值约15%。苹果股价周三上涨1.5%，至175.64美元。</blockquote></p><p> Suva offers a list of five reasons Apple can climb even higher in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Suva列出了苹果在2022年可以爬得更高的五个原因。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, he sees continued revenue growth, driven in particular by strong iPhone demand and growth in related services. While investor sentiment on consumer hardware has turned “very dour” on concerns that demand for PCs and other gear will revert to prepandemic levels, Suva isn’t buying that view. He estimates that the installed base of iPhones has reached more than 1 billion, with replacement cycle times remaining the same or shortening.</p><p><blockquote>首先，他预计收入将持续增长，特别是在强劲的iPhone需求和相关服务增长的推动下。尽管由于担心个人电脑和其他设备的需求将恢复到大流行前的水平，投资者对消费硬件的情绪变得“非常悲观”，但苏瓦并不相信这种观点。他估计，iPhone的装机量已超过10亿部，更换周期时间保持不变或缩短。</blockquote></p><p> “This implies that users value their devices and technology and will likely continue to invest in upgrades on a regular basis,” Suva writes. “Assuming that replacement rates hover around three years for smartphones and modeling for some of these upgrades to be refurbished devices, we believe that this suggests that the installed base upgrades still have room to translate into unit growth ahead, especially as 5G continues to roll out across major economies.”</p><p><blockquote>“这意味着用户重视他们的设备和技术，并且可能会继续定期投资升级，”苏瓦写道。“假设智能手机的更换率徘徊在三年左右，并且将其中一些升级建模为翻新设备，我们认为，这表明安装基础升级仍有空间转化为未来的单位增长，特别是在5G继续推出的情况下。主要经济体。”</blockquote></p><p> Suva thinks iPhone 14, coming next fall, will include a faster processor, longer battery life, and higher-resolution cameras. He sees Apple launching a foldable phone in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Suva认为明年秋天推出的iPhone 14将包括更快的处理器、更长的电池寿命和更高分辨率的摄像头。他预计苹果将于2023年推出可折叠手机。</blockquote></p><p> He’s also bullish on the coming debut of a virtual/augmented reality headset, widely expected in the 2022 second half. Citi believes the AR/VR market “is poised for growth,” he writes. “The technology is the core of Apple’s next big hardware push beyond the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.” He expects details on the product to emerge at the company’s annual developers conference in June. He expects a device priced in the $750 to $1,000 range.</p><p><blockquote>他还看好虚拟/增强现实耳机即将推出，人们普遍预计将于2022年下半年推出。他写道，花旗认为AR/VR市场“已蓄势待发”。“这项技术是苹果在iPhone、iPad和苹果手表之外的下一个重大硬件推动的核心。”他预计该产品的细节将在6月份的公司年度开发者大会上公布。他预计这款设备的价格在750美元到1000美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for his bullishness is that service revenue growth isn’t likely to be affected by regulatory changes, Suva writes. While litigation has targeted Apple’s limitations on the use of third-party payment systems in apps, Suva thinks the outcome won’t be material to revenue.</p><p><blockquote>苏瓦写道，他乐观的另一个原因是服务收入增长不太可能受到监管变化的影响。虽然诉讼的目标是苹果对在应用程序中使用第三方支付系统的限制，但Suva认为结果对收入不会产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> “Many users prefer convenience and security over a small amount of financial savings,” he writes. “For developers, chasing higher margins via off-store billing is likely to come at the expense of lower conversion rates and, by extension, lower revenues.”</p><p><blockquote>“许多用户更喜欢便利和安全，而不是少量的财务节省，”他写道。“对于开发商来说，通过店外计费追求更高的利润可能会以降低转化率为代价，进而降低收入。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple shares, Suva adds, will also continue to benefit from the company’s aggressive posture on returning cash to holders via dividends and especially stock repurchases. With Apple generating more than $100 billion a year in free cash flow, he says, the company is likely to return at least $100 billion a year to holders. He notes that the company has announced new buyback plans in May in each of the last four years, and he sees another $90 billion authorization ahead—and he sees a 10% dividend hike coming.</p><p><blockquote>苏瓦补充说，苹果股票还将继续受益于该公司通过股息，特别是股票回购向持有人返还现金的积极姿态。他表示，由于苹果每年产生超过1000亿美元的自由现金流，该公司每年可能会向持有人返还至少1000亿美元。他指出，过去四年中，该公司每年5月都会宣布新的回购计划，他预计未来还会有900亿美元的授权，并且股息将上调10%。</blockquote></p><p> Not least, Suva is upbeat on the prospect of an Apple Car. He expects a launch in 2025 or sooner.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Suva对苹果汽车的前景持乐观态度。他预计将于2025年或更早推出。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple entering the auto market is a matter not of ‘if’ but ‘when and to what extent,’” he writes. The analyst lays out two scenarios for Apple and cars. The first is that the company goes all in, and builds an Apple Car via outsourced production. The result could be a 10% to 15% boost to overall sales, with a 5% to 11% lift to Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. A more modest scenario has Apple focusing on the IT ecosystem for cars, like CarPlay, with a 2% lift to sales, and a 1% to 2% boost to Ebitda, he writes.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果进入汽车市场不是‘是否’的问题，而是‘何时以及在多大程度上’的问题，”他写道。分析师列出了苹果和汽车的两种情景。首先是该公司全力以赴，通过外包生产制造苹果汽车。其结果可能是整体销售额增长10%至15%，Ebitda（即息税折旧摊销前利润）增长5%至11%。他写道，更温和的情况是，苹果专注于CarPlay等汽车IT生态系统，销售额将增长2%，Ebitda将增长1%至2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-higher-51640199308?mod=hp_LEAD_3_B_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-higher-51640199308?mod=hp_LEAD_3_B_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152254856","content_text":"Over the last two years,Apple stock has rallied an extraordinary 141%, driving the company’s market capitalization to nearly $3 trillion, as the company saw remarkable growth across every business segment – iPhones, Macs, iPads, wearables and services.\nThere are reasons to expect higher highs—and many new gadgets—ahead.\nCiti analyst Jim Suva in a new research note repeated his Buy rating on Apple shares (ticker: AAPL). He lifted his price target to $200, from $170, which implies about 15% appreciation from the stock’s current level. Apple shares on Wednesday rose 1.5%, to $175.64.\nSuva offers a list of five reasons Apple can climb even higher in 2022.\nFor starters, he sees continued revenue growth, driven in particular by strong iPhone demand and growth in related services. While investor sentiment on consumer hardware has turned “very dour” on concerns that demand for PCs and other gear will revert to prepandemic levels, Suva isn’t buying that view. He estimates that the installed base of iPhones has reached more than 1 billion, with replacement cycle times remaining the same or shortening.\n“This implies that users value their devices and technology and will likely continue to invest in upgrades on a regular basis,” Suva writes. “Assuming that replacement rates hover around three years for smartphones and modeling for some of these upgrades to be refurbished devices, we believe that this suggests that the installed base upgrades still have room to translate into unit growth ahead, especially as 5G continues to roll out across major economies.”\nSuva thinks iPhone 14, coming next fall, will include a faster processor, longer battery life, and higher-resolution cameras. He sees Apple launching a foldable phone in 2023.\nHe’s also bullish on the coming debut of a virtual/augmented reality headset, widely expected in the 2022 second half. Citi believes the AR/VR market “is poised for growth,” he writes. “The technology is the core of Apple’s next big hardware push beyond the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.” He expects details on the product to emerge at the company’s annual developers conference in June. He expects a device priced in the $750 to $1,000 range.\nAnother reason for his bullishness is that service revenue growth isn’t likely to be affected by regulatory changes, Suva writes. While litigation has targeted Apple’s limitations on the use of third-party payment systems in apps, Suva thinks the outcome won’t be material to revenue.\n“Many users prefer convenience and security over a small amount of financial savings,” he writes. “For developers, chasing higher margins via off-store billing is likely to come at the expense of lower conversion rates and, by extension, lower revenues.”\nApple shares, Suva adds, will also continue to benefit from the company’s aggressive posture on returning cash to holders via dividends and especially stock repurchases. With Apple generating more than $100 billion a year in free cash flow, he says, the company is likely to return at least $100 billion a year to holders. He notes that the company has announced new buyback plans in May in each of the last four years, and he sees another $90 billion authorization ahead—and he sees a 10% dividend hike coming.\nNot least, Suva is upbeat on the prospect of an Apple Car. He expects a launch in 2025 or sooner.\n“Apple entering the auto market is a matter not of ‘if’ but ‘when and to what extent,’” he writes. The analyst lays out two scenarios for Apple and cars. The first is that the company goes all in, and builds an Apple Car via outsourced production. The result could be a 10% to 15% boost to overall sales, with a 5% to 11% lift to Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. A more modest scenario has Apple focusing on the IT ecosystem for cars, like CarPlay, with a 2% lift to sales, and a 1% to 2% boost to Ebitda, he writes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":691456244,"gmtCreate":1640231566508,"gmtModify":1640231566508,"author":{"id":"4101239823274660","authorId":"4101239823274660","name":"Jmyee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101239823274660","idStr":"4101239823274660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691456244","repostId":"1164467804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164467804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640230809,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164467804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164467804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.Apple Inc. stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. U","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li> <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li> <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li> <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨34%，大幅跑赢纳斯达克100指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股存在泡沫，因为其价格正在迅速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上慢于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将对苹果提出看涨论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL)股票在2021年表现稳健。该指数今年上涨了35%，表现强劲，优于纳斯达克100指数和标普500。苹果的2021年业绩是该公司长期获胜的最新一年，它表明股票永远不会太大而无法击败市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的胜利应该得到修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称AAPL被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是泡沫。”</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个即将破裂的泡沫。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“出售AAPL？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都明确悲观。一些人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总体而言，认为苹果是泡沫，或者至少被高估的情绪正在变得普遍。如果你看看TipRanks的情绪图表，就会发现对苹果股票的情绪明显负面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks情绪图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward <b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的悲观情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（FB）。Meta是一家因违反反垄断法而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分几乎完美。因此，没有什么特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – <b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只拥有宽护城河的股票，是少数几家同时控制大多数用户硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的策略，但很少有人成功。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，足以支付高价购买苹果的产品。很少有其他科技公司拥有这样的优势——<b>任天堂</b>(OTCPK：NTDOY)如果您将游戏视为技术，则是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只拥有宽阔护城河的股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果“垄断”了某一套软件体验。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，它是全球第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍然具有显着盈利和增长的潜力。因此，我将在本文中对苹果提出看涨论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的一点是它的竞争地位。该公司在如此广泛的不同市场开展业务，以至于很难确定其业务不仅仅是“技术”。从技术上讲，该公司的SIC代码（行业分类）是7372，表示“预打包软件”。然而，这并没有涵盖苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得注意的一些竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)-智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的竞争对手的全面名单是不可能的，因为该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务。除了上述所有名称之外，苹果可以说还在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售采用苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，使其与数十家公司展开默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据Counterpoint Research和Statista的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国占47%，全球占14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量方面落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑方面领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它可能会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才涉足智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以50%的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，值得探索苹果最有前途的两个类别：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在实际上是M1家族芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的新型芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一个8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16 GB内存（物理内置在芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。除此之外，还有两款新型号——M1 Pro和M1 Max——对基本型号进行了改进。列出这些高端型号的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的统计数据是M1 Max的570亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的MAC电脑本身可以作为游戏装备。苹果在笔记本电脑和台式机领域已经拥有相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说是难以捉摸的。因此，苹果电脑产品线的加速增长潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，为25%，而后者为30%。然而，服务是有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，它们也可以继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，期望苹果的硬件销售像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，苹果可以在硬件销售不佳的情况下保持总收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以转向苹果的财务状况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均未达到预期；然而，从绝对值来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果交付了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收830亿美元，增长29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为1.24美元，增长69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告了1040亿美元的TTM运营现金。这比去年增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。按市值计算，苹果是世界上最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均以成长型股票的水平增长。这一个季度并非侥幸。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，苹果上述指标的五年复合年增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这也是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这就抓住了本文论点的核心：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。其估值相当高，市盈率为30倍，销售额为7.7倍，现金流为26倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利以22%的速度增长，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去12个月的PEG比率仅为0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超盈利公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家主要的硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击的影响。本文概述的看涨论点面临的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司大幅削减了iPhone产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个始终存在的威胁，该公司依靠现成的原材料供应来保持销售流动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某物变得越大，需要的增幅就越大，才能推动与过去持平的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小工具，第一年就卖出了一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小工具，你的销售额就会翻倍。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额为3320亿美元，你需要客户在第十一年拿出6640亿美元来实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。碰巧的是，苹果第四季度830亿美元的年收入达到了3320亿美元。因此，未来将更难实现增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to <b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求它保持在技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出了明显优于iPhone的产品，这可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，为了<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机制造商。科技行业的历史上充斥着公司互相吃午餐的情况，尽管苹果在研发上投入了数十亿美元，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险是非常真实的，在几份季度报告中都被认为是一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、良好的增长和并非不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只值得做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们应该仍然不错。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li> <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li> <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li> <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨34%，大幅跑赢纳斯达克100指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股存在泡沫，因为其价格正在迅速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上慢于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将对苹果提出看涨论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL)股票在2021年表现稳健。该指数今年上涨了35%，表现强劲，优于纳斯达克100指数和标普500。苹果的2021年业绩是该公司长期获胜的最新一年，它表明股票永远不会太大而无法击败市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的胜利应该得到修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称AAPL被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是泡沫。”</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个即将破裂的泡沫。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“出售AAPL？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都明确悲观。一些人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总体而言，认为苹果是泡沫，或者至少被高估的情绪正在变得普遍。如果你看看TipRanks的情绪图表，就会发现对苹果股票的情绪明显负面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks情绪图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward <b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的悲观情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（FB）。Meta是一家因违反反垄断法而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分几乎完美。因此，没有什么特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – <b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只拥有宽护城河的股票，是少数几家同时控制大多数用户硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的策略，但很少有人成功。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，足以支付高价购买苹果的产品。很少有其他科技公司拥有这样的优势——<b>任天堂</b>(OTCPK：NTDOY)如果您将游戏视为技术，则是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只拥有宽阔护城河的股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果“垄断”了某一套软件体验。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，它是全球第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍然具有显着盈利和增长的潜力。因此，我将在本文中对苹果提出看涨论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的一点是它的竞争地位。该公司在如此广泛的不同市场开展业务，以至于很难确定其业务不仅仅是“技术”。从技术上讲，该公司的SIC代码（行业分类）是7372，表示“预打包软件”。然而，这并没有涵盖苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得注意的一些竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)-智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的竞争对手的全面名单是不可能的，因为该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务。除了上述所有名称之外，苹果可以说还在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售采用苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，使其与数十家公司展开默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据Counterpoint Research和Statista的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国占47%，全球占14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量方面落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑方面领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它可能会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才涉足智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以50%的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，值得探索苹果最有前途的两个类别：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在实际上是M1家族芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的新型芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一个8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16 GB内存（物理内置在芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。除此之外，还有两款新型号——M1 Pro和M1 Max——对基本型号进行了改进。列出这些高端型号的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的统计数据是M1 Max的570亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的MAC电脑本身可以作为游戏装备。苹果在笔记本电脑和台式机领域已经拥有相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说是难以捉摸的。因此，苹果电脑产品线的加速增长潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，为25%，而后者为30%。然而，服务是有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，它们也可以继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，期望苹果的硬件销售像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，苹果可以在硬件销售不佳的情况下保持总收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以转向苹果的财务状况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均未达到预期；然而，从绝对值来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果交付了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收830亿美元，增长29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为1.24美元，增长69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告了1040亿美元的TTM运营现金。这比去年增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。按市值计算，苹果是世界上最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均以成长型股票的水平增长。这一个季度并非侥幸。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，苹果上述指标的五年复合年增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这也是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这就抓住了本文论点的核心：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。其估值相当高，市盈率为30倍，销售额为7.7倍，现金流为26倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利以22%的速度增长，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去12个月的PEG比率仅为0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超盈利公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家主要的硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击的影响。本文概述的看涨论点面临的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司大幅削减了iPhone产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个始终存在的威胁，该公司依靠现成的原材料供应来保持销售流动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某物变得越大，需要的增幅就越大，才能推动与过去持平的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小工具，第一年就卖出了一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小工具，你的销售额就会翻倍。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额为3320亿美元，你需要客户在第十一年拿出6640亿美元来实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。碰巧的是，苹果第四季度830亿美元的年收入达到了3320亿美元。因此，未来将更难实现增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to <b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求它保持在技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出了明显优于iPhone的产品，这可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，为了<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机制造商。科技行业的历史上充斥着公司互相吃午餐的情况，尽管苹果在研发上投入了数十亿美元，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险是非常真实的，在几份季度报告中都被认为是一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、良好的增长和并非不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只值得做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们应该仍然不错。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164467804","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.\nIn this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nApple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.\nWith that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:\n\n“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”\n“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”\n“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”\n\nNot all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.\nSource: TipRanks’ sentiment chart\nThe bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.\n\nWhich begs the question:\nWhy?\nApple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.\nThis makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.\nThis advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.\nSome of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:\n\nSamsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.\nHuawei- smartphones.\nAlphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.\nMicrosoft(MSFT) - laptops.\nDell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.\nAdobe(ADBE) - creative software.\nAnd many more.\n\nA comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.\nHow is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:\n\nSmartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.\nLaptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.\nSmartwatches: over 50% globally.\nTablets: 35% globally.\n\nOn the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services\nSpeaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services.\nThe M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:\n\nAn 8-core CPU.\nA 7-core GPU.\n8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).\n5nm process.\n16 billion transistors.\n3.2 GHZ max clock rate.\n\nIncredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.\nNext up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.\nFinancials and Valuation\nNow we can turn to Apple’s financials.\nApple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:\n\n$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.\n$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.\n$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.\n$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.\n\nThe company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.\nThese were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:\n\nRevenue: 11%.\nOperating income: 12.7%.\nNet income: 15.7%.\nDiluted EPS: 22%.\nCash flow: 10.7%.\n\nAgain very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:\nApple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.\nRisks and Challenges\nWhile Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:\n\nSupply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.\nScale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.\nDisruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.\n\nThe above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691464056,"gmtCreate":1640229140008,"gmtModify":1640229180642,"author":{"id":"4101239823274660","authorId":"4101239823274660","name":"Jmyee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4101239823274660","idStr":"4101239823274660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691464056","repostId":"1152254856","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152254856","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640223332,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152254856?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 09:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Reasons Apple Stock Can Trade Higher From Here<blockquote>苹果股票可以从这里走高的5个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152254856","media":"Barrons","summary":"Over the last two years,Apple stock has rallied an extraordinary 141%, driving the company’s market ","content":"<p>Over the last two years,Apple stock has rallied an extraordinary 141%, driving the company’s market capitalization to nearly $3 trillion, as the company saw remarkable growth across every business segment – iPhones, Macs, iPads, wearables and services.</p><p><blockquote>过去两年，苹果股价上涨了141%，推动公司市值达到近3万亿美元，该公司在iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和服务等各个业务领域都实现了显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> There are reasons to expect higher highs—and many new gadgets—ahead.</p><p><blockquote>有理由期待未来会出现更高的高点和许多新产品。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Jim Suva in a new research note repeated his Buy rating on Apple shares (ticker: AAPL). He lifted his price target to $200, from $170, which implies about 15% appreciation from the stock’s current level. Apple shares on Wednesday rose 1.5%, to $175.64.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Jim Suva在一份新的研究报告中重申了对苹果股票（股票代码：AAPL）的买入评级。他将目标价从170美元上调至200美元，这意味着该股较当前水平升值约15%。苹果股价周三上涨1.5%，至175.64美元。</blockquote></p><p> Suva offers a list of five reasons Apple can climb even higher in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Suva列出了苹果在2022年可以爬得更高的五个原因。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, he sees continued revenue growth, driven in particular by strong iPhone demand and growth in related services. While investor sentiment on consumer hardware has turned “very dour” on concerns that demand for PCs and other gear will revert to prepandemic levels, Suva isn’t buying that view. He estimates that the installed base of iPhones has reached more than 1 billion, with replacement cycle times remaining the same or shortening.</p><p><blockquote>首先，他预计收入将持续增长，特别是在强劲的iPhone需求和相关服务增长的推动下。尽管由于担心个人电脑和其他设备的需求将恢复到大流行前的水平，投资者对消费硬件的情绪变得“非常悲观”，但苏瓦并不相信这种观点。他估计，iPhone的装机量已超过10亿部，更换周期时间保持不变或缩短。</blockquote></p><p> “This implies that users value their devices and technology and will likely continue to invest in upgrades on a regular basis,” Suva writes. “Assuming that replacement rates hover around three years for smartphones and modeling for some of these upgrades to be refurbished devices, we believe that this suggests that the installed base upgrades still have room to translate into unit growth ahead, especially as 5G continues to roll out across major economies.”</p><p><blockquote>“这意味着用户重视他们的设备和技术，并且可能会继续定期投资升级，”苏瓦写道。“假设智能手机的更换率徘徊在三年左右，并且将其中一些升级建模为翻新设备，我们认为，这表明安装基础升级仍有空间转化为未来的单位增长，特别是在5G继续推出的情况下。主要经济体。”</blockquote></p><p> Suva thinks iPhone 14, coming next fall, will include a faster processor, longer battery life, and higher-resolution cameras. He sees Apple launching a foldable phone in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Suva认为明年秋天推出的iPhone 14将包括更快的处理器、更长的电池寿命和更高分辨率的摄像头。他预计苹果将于2023年推出可折叠手机。</blockquote></p><p> He’s also bullish on the coming debut of a virtual/augmented reality headset, widely expected in the 2022 second half. Citi believes the AR/VR market “is poised for growth,” he writes. “The technology is the core of Apple’s next big hardware push beyond the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.” He expects details on the product to emerge at the company’s annual developers conference in June. He expects a device priced in the $750 to $1,000 range.</p><p><blockquote>他还看好虚拟/增强现实耳机即将推出，人们普遍预计将于2022年下半年推出。他写道，花旗认为AR/VR市场“已蓄势待发”。“这项技术是苹果在iPhone、iPad和苹果手表之外的下一个重大硬件推动的核心。”他预计该产品的细节将在6月份的公司年度开发者大会上公布。他预计这款设备的价格在750美元到1000美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for his bullishness is that service revenue growth isn’t likely to be affected by regulatory changes, Suva writes. While litigation has targeted Apple’s limitations on the use of third-party payment systems in apps, Suva thinks the outcome won’t be material to revenue.</p><p><blockquote>苏瓦写道，他乐观的另一个原因是服务收入增长不太可能受到监管变化的影响。虽然诉讼的目标是苹果对在应用程序中使用第三方支付系统的限制，但Suva认为结果对收入不会产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> “Many users prefer convenience and security over a small amount of financial savings,” he writes. “For developers, chasing higher margins via off-store billing is likely to come at the expense of lower conversion rates and, by extension, lower revenues.”</p><p><blockquote>“许多用户更喜欢便利和安全，而不是少量的财务节省，”他写道。“对于开发商来说，通过店外计费追求更高的利润可能会以降低转化率为代价，进而降低收入。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple shares, Suva adds, will also continue to benefit from the company’s aggressive posture on returning cash to holders via dividends and especially stock repurchases. With Apple generating more than $100 billion a year in free cash flow, he says, the company is likely to return at least $100 billion a year to holders. He notes that the company has announced new buyback plans in May in each of the last four years, and he sees another $90 billion authorization ahead—and he sees a 10% dividend hike coming.</p><p><blockquote>苏瓦补充说，苹果股票还将继续受益于该公司通过股息，特别是股票回购向持有人返还现金的积极姿态。他表示，由于苹果每年产生超过1000亿美元的自由现金流，该公司每年可能会向持有人返还至少1000亿美元。他指出，过去四年中，该公司每年5月都会宣布新的回购计划，他预计未来还会有900亿美元的授权，并且股息将上调10%。</blockquote></p><p> Not least, Suva is upbeat on the prospect of an Apple Car. He expects a launch in 2025 or sooner.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Suva对苹果汽车的前景持乐观态度。他预计将于2025年或更早推出。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple entering the auto market is a matter not of ‘if’ but ‘when and to what extent,’” he writes. The analyst lays out two scenarios for Apple and cars. The first is that the company goes all in, and builds an Apple Car via outsourced production. The result could be a 10% to 15% boost to overall sales, with a 5% to 11% lift to Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. A more modest scenario has Apple focusing on the IT ecosystem for cars, like CarPlay, with a 2% lift to sales, and a 1% to 2% boost to Ebitda, he writes.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果进入汽车市场不是‘是否’的问题，而是‘何时以及在多大程度上’的问题，”他写道。分析师列出了苹果和汽车的两种情景。首先是该公司全力以赴，通过外包生产制造苹果汽车。其结果可能是整体销售额增长10%至15%，Ebitda（即息税折旧摊销前利润）增长5%至11%。他写道，更温和的情况是，苹果专注于CarPlay等汽车IT生态系统，销售额将增长2%，Ebitda将增长1%至2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Reasons Apple Stock Can Trade Higher From Here<blockquote>苹果股票可以从这里走高的5个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Reasons Apple Stock Can Trade Higher From Here<blockquote>苹果股票可以从这里走高的5个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 09:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Over the last two years,Apple stock has rallied an extraordinary 141%, driving the company’s market capitalization to nearly $3 trillion, as the company saw remarkable growth across every business segment – iPhones, Macs, iPads, wearables and services.</p><p><blockquote>过去两年，苹果股价上涨了141%，推动公司市值达到近3万亿美元，该公司在iPhone、Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和服务等各个业务领域都实现了显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> There are reasons to expect higher highs—and many new gadgets—ahead.</p><p><blockquote>有理由期待未来会出现更高的高点和许多新产品。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Jim Suva in a new research note repeated his Buy rating on Apple shares (ticker: AAPL). He lifted his price target to $200, from $170, which implies about 15% appreciation from the stock’s current level. Apple shares on Wednesday rose 1.5%, to $175.64.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Jim Suva在一份新的研究报告中重申了对苹果股票（股票代码：AAPL）的买入评级。他将目标价从170美元上调至200美元，这意味着该股较当前水平升值约15%。苹果股价周三上涨1.5%，至175.64美元。</blockquote></p><p> Suva offers a list of five reasons Apple can climb even higher in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Suva列出了苹果在2022年可以爬得更高的五个原因。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, he sees continued revenue growth, driven in particular by strong iPhone demand and growth in related services. While investor sentiment on consumer hardware has turned “very dour” on concerns that demand for PCs and other gear will revert to prepandemic levels, Suva isn’t buying that view. He estimates that the installed base of iPhones has reached more than 1 billion, with replacement cycle times remaining the same or shortening.</p><p><blockquote>首先，他预计收入将持续增长，特别是在强劲的iPhone需求和相关服务增长的推动下。尽管由于担心个人电脑和其他设备的需求将恢复到大流行前的水平，投资者对消费硬件的情绪变得“非常悲观”，但苏瓦并不相信这种观点。他估计，iPhone的装机量已超过10亿部，更换周期时间保持不变或缩短。</blockquote></p><p> “This implies that users value their devices and technology and will likely continue to invest in upgrades on a regular basis,” Suva writes. “Assuming that replacement rates hover around three years for smartphones and modeling for some of these upgrades to be refurbished devices, we believe that this suggests that the installed base upgrades still have room to translate into unit growth ahead, especially as 5G continues to roll out across major economies.”</p><p><blockquote>“这意味着用户重视他们的设备和技术，并且可能会继续定期投资升级，”苏瓦写道。“假设智能手机的更换率徘徊在三年左右，并且将其中一些升级建模为翻新设备，我们认为，这表明安装基础升级仍有空间转化为未来的单位增长，特别是在5G继续推出的情况下。主要经济体。”</blockquote></p><p> Suva thinks iPhone 14, coming next fall, will include a faster processor, longer battery life, and higher-resolution cameras. He sees Apple launching a foldable phone in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Suva认为明年秋天推出的iPhone 14将包括更快的处理器、更长的电池寿命和更高分辨率的摄像头。他预计苹果将于2023年推出可折叠手机。</blockquote></p><p> He’s also bullish on the coming debut of a virtual/augmented reality headset, widely expected in the 2022 second half. Citi believes the AR/VR market “is poised for growth,” he writes. “The technology is the core of Apple’s next big hardware push beyond the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.” He expects details on the product to emerge at the company’s annual developers conference in June. He expects a device priced in the $750 to $1,000 range.</p><p><blockquote>他还看好虚拟/增强现实耳机即将推出，人们普遍预计将于2022年下半年推出。他写道，花旗认为AR/VR市场“已蓄势待发”。“这项技术是苹果在iPhone、iPad和苹果手表之外的下一个重大硬件推动的核心。”他预计该产品的细节将在6月份的公司年度开发者大会上公布。他预计这款设备的价格在750美元到1000美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> Another reason for his bullishness is that service revenue growth isn’t likely to be affected by regulatory changes, Suva writes. While litigation has targeted Apple’s limitations on the use of third-party payment systems in apps, Suva thinks the outcome won’t be material to revenue.</p><p><blockquote>苏瓦写道，他乐观的另一个原因是服务收入增长不太可能受到监管变化的影响。虽然诉讼的目标是苹果对在应用程序中使用第三方支付系统的限制，但Suva认为结果对收入不会产生重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> “Many users prefer convenience and security over a small amount of financial savings,” he writes. “For developers, chasing higher margins via off-store billing is likely to come at the expense of lower conversion rates and, by extension, lower revenues.”</p><p><blockquote>“许多用户更喜欢便利和安全，而不是少量的财务节省，”他写道。“对于开发商来说，通过店外计费追求更高的利润可能会以降低转化率为代价，进而降低收入。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple shares, Suva adds, will also continue to benefit from the company’s aggressive posture on returning cash to holders via dividends and especially stock repurchases. With Apple generating more than $100 billion a year in free cash flow, he says, the company is likely to return at least $100 billion a year to holders. He notes that the company has announced new buyback plans in May in each of the last four years, and he sees another $90 billion authorization ahead—and he sees a 10% dividend hike coming.</p><p><blockquote>苏瓦补充说，苹果股票还将继续受益于该公司通过股息，特别是股票回购向持有人返还现金的积极姿态。他表示，由于苹果每年产生超过1000亿美元的自由现金流，该公司每年可能会向持有人返还至少1000亿美元。他指出，过去四年中，该公司每年5月都会宣布新的回购计划，他预计未来还会有900亿美元的授权，并且股息将上调10%。</blockquote></p><p> Not least, Suva is upbeat on the prospect of an Apple Car. He expects a launch in 2025 or sooner.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Suva对苹果汽车的前景持乐观态度。他预计将于2025年或更早推出。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple entering the auto market is a matter not of ‘if’ but ‘when and to what extent,’” he writes. The analyst lays out two scenarios for Apple and cars. The first is that the company goes all in, and builds an Apple Car via outsourced production. The result could be a 10% to 15% boost to overall sales, with a 5% to 11% lift to Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. A more modest scenario has Apple focusing on the IT ecosystem for cars, like CarPlay, with a 2% lift to sales, and a 1% to 2% boost to Ebitda, he writes.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果进入汽车市场不是‘是否’的问题，而是‘何时以及在多大程度上’的问题，”他写道。分析师列出了苹果和汽车的两种情景。首先是该公司全力以赴，通过外包生产制造苹果汽车。其结果可能是整体销售额增长10%至15%，Ebitda（即息税折旧摊销前利润）增长5%至11%。他写道，更温和的情况是，苹果专注于CarPlay等汽车IT生态系统，销售额将增长2%，Ebitda将增长1%至2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-higher-51640199308?mod=hp_LEAD_3_B_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-higher-51640199308?mod=hp_LEAD_3_B_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152254856","content_text":"Over the last two years,Apple stock has rallied an extraordinary 141%, driving the company’s market capitalization to nearly $3 trillion, as the company saw remarkable growth across every business segment – iPhones, Macs, iPads, wearables and services.\nThere are reasons to expect higher highs—and many new gadgets—ahead.\nCiti analyst Jim Suva in a new research note repeated his Buy rating on Apple shares (ticker: AAPL). He lifted his price target to $200, from $170, which implies about 15% appreciation from the stock’s current level. Apple shares on Wednesday rose 1.5%, to $175.64.\nSuva offers a list of five reasons Apple can climb even higher in 2022.\nFor starters, he sees continued revenue growth, driven in particular by strong iPhone demand and growth in related services. While investor sentiment on consumer hardware has turned “very dour” on concerns that demand for PCs and other gear will revert to prepandemic levels, Suva isn’t buying that view. He estimates that the installed base of iPhones has reached more than 1 billion, with replacement cycle times remaining the same or shortening.\n“This implies that users value their devices and technology and will likely continue to invest in upgrades on a regular basis,” Suva writes. “Assuming that replacement rates hover around three years for smartphones and modeling for some of these upgrades to be refurbished devices, we believe that this suggests that the installed base upgrades still have room to translate into unit growth ahead, especially as 5G continues to roll out across major economies.”\nSuva thinks iPhone 14, coming next fall, will include a faster processor, longer battery life, and higher-resolution cameras. He sees Apple launching a foldable phone in 2023.\nHe’s also bullish on the coming debut of a virtual/augmented reality headset, widely expected in the 2022 second half. Citi believes the AR/VR market “is poised for growth,” he writes. “The technology is the core of Apple’s next big hardware push beyond the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.” He expects details on the product to emerge at the company’s annual developers conference in June. He expects a device priced in the $750 to $1,000 range.\nAnother reason for his bullishness is that service revenue growth isn’t likely to be affected by regulatory changes, Suva writes. While litigation has targeted Apple’s limitations on the use of third-party payment systems in apps, Suva thinks the outcome won’t be material to revenue.\n“Many users prefer convenience and security over a small amount of financial savings,” he writes. “For developers, chasing higher margins via off-store billing is likely to come at the expense of lower conversion rates and, by extension, lower revenues.”\nApple shares, Suva adds, will also continue to benefit from the company’s aggressive posture on returning cash to holders via dividends and especially stock repurchases. With Apple generating more than $100 billion a year in free cash flow, he says, the company is likely to return at least $100 billion a year to holders. He notes that the company has announced new buyback plans in May in each of the last four years, and he sees another $90 billion authorization ahead—and he sees a 10% dividend hike coming.\nNot least, Suva is upbeat on the prospect of an Apple Car. He expects a launch in 2025 or sooner.\n“Apple entering the auto market is a matter not of ‘if’ but ‘when and to what extent,’” he writes. The analyst lays out two scenarios for Apple and cars. The first is that the company goes all in, and builds an Apple Car via outsourced production. The result could be a 10% to 15% boost to overall sales, with a 5% to 11% lift to Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. A more modest scenario has Apple focusing on the IT ecosystem for cars, like CarPlay, with a 2% lift to sales, and a 1% to 2% boost to Ebitda, he writes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
