把我的钱还给我我不玩了的个人主页 - 老虎社区

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

红

IP属地：广东

26关注

1粉丝

1主题

0勋章

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

15:46

开门就跌的票就是为了圈钱

小马智行、丰田汽车持股公司成立智能科技公司

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

10-31

$三一重工(06031)$ 走了，不走就要亏完。

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

10-30

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 看到400

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

10-27

$CRCL 20260116 150.0 CALL$ 跑早了。

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

10-27

$三一重工(06031)$ 恶心死，礼貌吗？

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

10-26

看到560元

财报前瞻｜交易回暖与订阅韧性共振，Coinbase Q3利润结构有望改善

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

10-24

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 看到560

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

10-21

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

10-15

$云迹(02670)$ 来个万手哥

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

09-25

$奇瑞汽车(09973)$ 幸好卖掉了，要不亏死。

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

09-24

$金山云(KC)$ 卖掉，市值低容易被调整

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

09-23

奇瑞汽车稳定增长，属于长期持有股。

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

09-21

$BigBear.ai Holdings(BBAI)$ 这支估计要上去

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

09-20

小资金搞大盘股期权，大资金，买龙头不动。看个人情况

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

09-19

特斯拉看到1200

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

09-19

不会，因为只有钱多的人才可以打新。钱少的一般都是被老虎骗100手续费，然后什么都没有。

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

09-12

看到125USD 阻挡不了趋势

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

09-10

$Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

08-17

买tsl

把我的钱还给我我不玩了

08-17

Replying to @taiynbb:不要动//@taiynbb:我现在持仓 TSLA下一步该买什么股票？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小马智行、丰田汽车持股公司成立智能科技公司\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-06 14:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251106143912975783d5&s=b><strong>E公司</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>人民财讯11月6日电，企查查APP显示，近日，骓丰智能科技（深圳）有限公司成立，法定代表人为莫璐怡，注册资本2800万元，经营范围包含智能仪器仪表制造；汽车零配件批发；汽车零配件零售；充电桩销售；集中式快速充电站等。企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由骓丰智能科技（广州）有限公司全资持股，后者由小马智行旗下广州小马慧行科技有限公司、丰田汽车（中国）投资有限公司、广汽丰田汽车有限公司共同持股。</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251106143912975783d5&s=b\">Web 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跑早了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab32a1fae6a8301416fea2f03e09b7a","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/493774588670136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":493701088526696,"gmtCreate":1761553786047,"gmtModify":1761554236068,"author":{"id":"4104232728043510","authorId":"4104232728043510","name":"把我的钱还给我 我不玩了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d22ff2fce1bb068e0233d32608d90c25","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104232728043510","authorIdStr":"4104232728043510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06031\">$三一重工(06031)$</a> 恶心死，礼貌吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06031\">$三一重工(06031)$</a> 恶心死，礼貌吗？","text":"$三一重工(06031)$ 恶心死，礼貌吗？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d6144798e912df008418e3a15ba4805","width":"1179","height":"2556"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/493701088526696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3485433135794219","authorId":"3485433135794219","name":"顺风车","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3485433135794219","authorIdStr":"3485433135794219"},"content":"三一重工这种A➕H这涨幅，对打新已经算非常友好了","text":"三一重工这种A➕H这涨幅，对打新已经算非常友好了","html":"三一重工这种A➕H这涨幅，对打新已经算非常友好了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":493513944588288,"gmtCreate":1761470897170,"gmtModify":1761470899500,"author":{"id":"4104232728043510","authorId":"4104232728043510","name":"把我的钱还给我 我不玩了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d22ff2fce1bb068e0233d32608d90c25","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4104232728043510","authorIdStr":"4104232728043510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看到560元","listText":"看到560元","text":"看到560元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/493513944588288","repostId":"1133230838","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133230838","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"专注财报前瞻、财报解析的大模型Agent","home_visible":1,"media_name":"财报Agent","id":"1017018787","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f"},"pubTimestamp":1761113112,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133230838?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-22 14:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻｜交易回暖与订阅韧性共振，Coinbase Q3利润结构有望改善","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133230838","media":"财报Agent","summary":"加密货币交易所$Coinbase$将于10月30日美股盘后发布2025财年第三季度财报。根据老虎国际APP数据来源预测，Coinbase第三季度营收为17.75亿美元，同比增长逾47%；调整后每股收益为1.13美元，同比增长逾303%。本季度展望交易活动回暖的驱动与边界进入三季度，研究机构普遍强调比特币价格走强与ETF资金净流的联动作用，带动成交回升与定价改善，交易端预计恢复至环比增长。总结三季度预期的核心逻辑是“交易回暖叠加订阅稳定”，二者共振提升利润结构。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>加密货币交易所<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>将于10月30日美股盘后发布2025财年第三季度财报。根据老虎国际APP数据来源预测，Coinbase第三季度营收为17.75亿美元，同比增长逾47%；调整后每股收益为1.13美元，同比增长逾303%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e4419d028de9af7f1079bf003f4443\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"531\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2982823303\">上季度回顾</h2><p>二季度营收14.972亿美元，同比增长约3.3%；毛利率约80.1%；净利润约3.31亿美元、净利率约22.1%；调整后每股收益约2.00美元，业绩略超市场核心关注的盈利质量目标且费用控制到位。管理层在电话会披露三季度运营费用指引约9.0-9.2亿美元，订阅与服务预期保持稳定、交易随市场波动。主营业务方面，交易收入7.64亿美元、订阅与服务收入6.56亿美元，订阅占比提升至约44%，收入结构优化。</p><h2 id=\"id_3674218905\">本季度展望</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>交易活动回暖的驱动与边界</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">进入三季度，研究机构普遍强调比特币价格走强与ETF资金净流的联动作用，带动成交回升与定价改善，交易端预计恢复至环比增长。二季度公司交易收入为7.64亿美元，占整体约51%，零售与机构活跃度与加密资产价格相关度较高；FactSet等模型测算显示，比特币价格每10%的变动对应交易收入约7%-10%的波动，这意味着交易端对行情持续性和波动率结构高度敏感。当行情连续性更强、波动率处于“有利于成交”的区间时，价差与频次改善会同步传导至收入；若波动率快速收敛或价格单边疲弱，交易活跃度可能回落，需要关注季度内的节奏切换。费用侧，管理层延续二季度电话会给出的运营费用约9.0-9.2亿美元的纪律框架，当交易量回升时更容易形成经营杠杆，交易收入增量将较高比例转化为利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>订阅与服务的韧性与扩张路径</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">订阅与服务收入在二季度为6.56亿美元，占比约44%，构成包括USDC利息、质押收益与托管费等；多家机构在7月至9月的前瞻中均指出，USDC利息与质押收益在2025年上半年表现稳健，为三季度毛利维持高位提供基础。三季度预期此板块保持稳定、占比继续在40%以上，重点在于合规托管与结算服务对机构端的渗透，以及对高价值客户的交叉销售提升综合ARPU。Bloomberg Briefs与MarketWatch的预览均提到，机构托管与结算的一体化方案正在抬升ARPU，稳定订阅收入占比。该板块对费用的敏感度较低，受益于运营费用框架的纪律性，利润率的可见性较好。需要跟踪的变量主要是利率环境与政策变动对质押收益和稳定币生态的影响；在当前数据与指引下，结构优化趋势明确，为三季度盈利质量提供支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>费用与利润率的兑现路径</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">一致预期三季度毛利率约82%、净利率约24%左右，利润率改善的核心来自交易活跃度回升与订阅收入稳定的共振。公司在二季度明确了三季度运营费用目标区间约9.0-9.2亿美元，费用率受控为利润率提升创造条件。一旦交易端出现超预期回暖，收入增量将在既定费用框架下拉动经营杠杆，使净利率呈现弹性；若行情偏缓，订阅端的韧性与高毛利结构有望缓冲利润波动。值得关注的是机构客户与托管业务的交叉销售，MarketWatch与多份券商预览提到通过一体化平台提升综合ARPU，在不显著扩张费用的前提下拉动收入与利润率，这一“轻资产增收”路径或成为利润结构优化的中期抓手。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>机构与合规平台的协同优势</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">多家研究指出，合规平台的用户留存与机构客户偏好正在形成协同，三季度交易回暖时合规平台的定价与流动性优势更易转化为成交。FactSet与Seeking Alpha的预览均强调，交易端回暖的背景下，受ETF净流与价格走强带动，机构成交与零售活跃度同步改善，且对高净值与机构客户的托管、结算服务的交叉销售开始体现单位用户价值提升。由此带来的“平台协同效应”，一方面稳住订阅端的高毛利与稳定现金流，另一方面在交易端回暖时形成对收入的倍增效应，有助于三季度实现收入与利润率的结构性改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>经营杠杆的形成与风险平衡</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">二季度公司维持运营费用纪律，并为三季度给出明确费用区间，为经营杠杆的兑现打下基础。券商前瞻普遍认为，若三季度交易量不出现突发“急冻”，订阅端的高毛利与稳健现金流将与交易端的增量配合，使得净利率与调整后每股收益表现与一致预期相近甚至略优。需要平衡的风险包括：交易对价格与波动率的高敏感性、政策与利率环境对质押与稳定币收益的扰动、以及季度内产品/功能的可用性与性能事件对活跃度的影响（路透在二季度至三季度前后报道了若干子系统的性能告警，但对核心资金安全与Prime账户未造成实质影响）。整体看，在费用纪律与高毛利订阅护城河的前提下，三季度的利润结构弹性仍然具备较好的实现路径。</p><h2 id=\"id_1165181632\">分析师观点</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">近期三季度前瞻与评级显示，看多观点占据主流。多家机构在9月至10月中旬将目标价区间上调至260-300美元并给予买入/跑赢评级，理由集中在交易回暖、订阅韧性与费用纪律；其中Mizuho将目标价由267美元上调至300美元（Neutral），Barclays维持Equal Weight并小幅下调目标价至361美元，整体评级分布从中性向积极倾斜。FactSet与Bloomberg Briefs的前瞻均指向：三季度营收约17.2-17.8亿美元、毛利率约82%、净利率约24%左右、调整后EPS约2.1-2.3美元，订阅与服务保持在40%以上的收入占比、OpEx约9.0-9.2亿美元。相对审慎的声音提醒监管与费用压力、交易对行情高度敏感，但在当前数据与指引框架下，主流机构仍倾向于三季度业绩改善的判断。</p><h2 id=\"id_251171598\">总结</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">三季度预期的核心逻辑是“交易回暖叠加订阅稳定”，二者共振提升利润结构。交易端受价格与ETF净流带动、活跃度与定价边际改善，有望在受控费用下形成经营杠杆；订阅与服务端凭借USDC利息、质押与托管费的稳定贡献，维持高毛利与现金流的韧性，为利润率提供底部保护。机构客户的交叉销售与一体化平台协同正抬升ARPU，使收入增长与费用扩张的匹配更为高效。在风险平衡方面，需跟踪交易对波动率的敏感性、利率与监管对订阅构成的影响，以及季度内产品性能与可用性变化。综合当前一致预期与公司已披露的费用框架，三季度收入与盈利质量的改善路径较为清晰。</p><p><em>此内容基于tiger AI数据生成，内容仅供参考。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻｜交易回暖与订阅韧性共振，Coinbase Q3利润结构有望改善</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻｜交易回暖与订阅韧性共振，Coinbase Q3利润结构有望改善\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-10-22 14:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>加密货币交易所<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>将于10月30日美股盘后发布2025财年第三季度财报。根据老虎国际APP数据来源预测，Coinbase第三季度营收为17.75亿美元，同比增长逾47%；调整后每股收益为1.13美元，同比增长逾303%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e4419d028de9af7f1079bf003f4443\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"531\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2982823303\">上季度回顾</h2><p>二季度营收14.972亿美元，同比增长约3.3%；毛利率约80.1%；净利润约3.31亿美元、净利率约22.1%；调整后每股收益约2.00美元，业绩略超市场核心关注的盈利质量目标且费用控制到位。管理层在电话会披露三季度运营费用指引约9.0-9.2亿美元，订阅与服务预期保持稳定、交易随市场波动。主营业务方面，交易收入7.64亿美元、订阅与服务收入6.56亿美元，订阅占比提升至约44%，收入结构优化。</p><h2 id=\"id_3674218905\">本季度展望</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>交易活动回暖的驱动与边界</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">进入三季度，研究机构普遍强调比特币价格走强与ETF资金净流的联动作用，带动成交回升与定价改善，交易端预计恢复至环比增长。二季度公司交易收入为7.64亿美元，占整体约51%，零售与机构活跃度与加密资产价格相关度较高；FactSet等模型测算显示，比特币价格每10%的变动对应交易收入约7%-10%的波动，这意味着交易端对行情持续性和波动率结构高度敏感。当行情连续性更强、波动率处于“有利于成交”的区间时，价差与频次改善会同步传导至收入；若波动率快速收敛或价格单边疲弱，交易活跃度可能回落，需要关注季度内的节奏切换。费用侧，管理层延续二季度电话会给出的运营费用约9.0-9.2亿美元的纪律框架，当交易量回升时更容易形成经营杠杆，交易收入增量将较高比例转化为利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>订阅与服务的韧性与扩张路径</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">订阅与服务收入在二季度为6.56亿美元，占比约44%，构成包括USDC利息、质押收益与托管费等；多家机构在7月至9月的前瞻中均指出，USDC利息与质押收益在2025年上半年表现稳健，为三季度毛利维持高位提供基础。三季度预期此板块保持稳定、占比继续在40%以上，重点在于合规托管与结算服务对机构端的渗透，以及对高价值客户的交叉销售提升综合ARPU。Bloomberg Briefs与MarketWatch的预览均提到，机构托管与结算的一体化方案正在抬升ARPU，稳定订阅收入占比。该板块对费用的敏感度较低，受益于运营费用框架的纪律性，利润率的可见性较好。需要跟踪的变量主要是利率环境与政策变动对质押收益和稳定币生态的影响；在当前数据与指引下，结构优化趋势明确，为三季度盈利质量提供支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>费用与利润率的兑现路径</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">一致预期三季度毛利率约82%、净利率约24%左右，利润率改善的核心来自交易活跃度回升与订阅收入稳定的共振。公司在二季度明确了三季度运营费用目标区间约9.0-9.2亿美元，费用率受控为利润率提升创造条件。一旦交易端出现超预期回暖，收入增量将在既定费用框架下拉动经营杠杆，使净利率呈现弹性；若行情偏缓，订阅端的韧性与高毛利结构有望缓冲利润波动。值得关注的是机构客户与托管业务的交叉销售，MarketWatch与多份券商预览提到通过一体化平台提升综合ARPU，在不显著扩张费用的前提下拉动收入与利润率，这一“轻资产增收”路径或成为利润结构优化的中期抓手。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>机构与合规平台的协同优势</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">多家研究指出，合规平台的用户留存与机构客户偏好正在形成协同，三季度交易回暖时合规平台的定价与流动性优势更易转化为成交。FactSet与Seeking Alpha的预览均强调，交易端回暖的背景下，受ETF净流与价格走强带动，机构成交与零售活跃度同步改善，且对高净值与机构客户的托管、结算服务的交叉销售开始体现单位用户价值提升。由此带来的“平台协同效应”，一方面稳住订阅端的高毛利与稳定现金流，另一方面在交易端回暖时形成对收入的倍增效应，有助于三季度实现收入与利润率的结构性改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>经营杠杆的形成与风险平衡</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">二季度公司维持运营费用纪律，并为三季度给出明确费用区间，为经营杠杆的兑现打下基础。券商前瞻普遍认为，若三季度交易量不出现突发“急冻”，订阅端的高毛利与稳健现金流将与交易端的增量配合，使得净利率与调整后每股收益表现与一致预期相近甚至略优。需要平衡的风险包括：交易对价格与波动率的高敏感性、政策与利率环境对质押与稳定币收益的扰动、以及季度内产品/功能的可用性与性能事件对活跃度的影响（路透在二季度至三季度前后报道了若干子系统的性能告警，但对核心资金安全与Prime账户未造成实质影响）。整体看，在费用纪律与高毛利订阅护城河的前提下，三季度的利润结构弹性仍然具备较好的实现路径。</p><h2 id=\"id_1165181632\">分析师观点</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">近期三季度前瞻与评级显示，看多观点占据主流。多家机构在9月至10月中旬将目标价区间上调至260-300美元并给予买入/跑赢评级，理由集中在交易回暖、订阅韧性与费用纪律；其中Mizuho将目标价由267美元上调至300美元（Neutral），Barclays维持Equal Weight并小幅下调目标价至361美元，整体评级分布从中性向积极倾斜。FactSet与Bloomberg Briefs的前瞻均指向：三季度营收约17.2-17.8亿美元、毛利率约82%、净利率约24%左右、调整后EPS约2.1-2.3美元，订阅与服务保持在40%以上的收入占比、OpEx约9.0-9.2亿美元。相对审慎的声音提醒监管与费用压力、交易对行情高度敏感，但在当前数据与指引框架下，主流机构仍倾向于三季度业绩改善的判断。</p><h2 id=\"id_251171598\">总结</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">三季度预期的核心逻辑是“交易回暖叠加订阅稳定”，二者共振提升利润结构。交易端受价格与ETF净流带动、活跃度与定价边际改善，有望在受控费用下形成经营杠杆；订阅与服务端凭借USDC利息、质押与托管费的稳定贡献，维持高毛利与现金流的韧性，为利润率提供底部保护。机构客户的交叉销售与一体化平台协同正抬升ARPU，使收入增长与费用扩张的匹配更为高效。在风险平衡方面，需跟踪交易对波动率的敏感性、利率与监管对订阅构成的影响，以及季度内产品性能与可用性变化。综合当前一致预期与公司已披露的费用框架，三季度收入与盈利质量的改善路径较为清晰。</p><p><em>此内容基于tiger AI数据生成，内容仅供参考。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c23f9a932c22afd01e3434815bb33","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133230838","content_text":"加密货币交易所Coinbase将于10月30日美股盘后发布2025财年第三季度财报。根据老虎国际APP数据来源预测，Coinbase第三季度营收为17.75亿美元，同比增长逾47%；调整后每股收益为1.13美元，同比增长逾303%。上季度回顾二季度营收14.972亿美元，同比增长约3.3%；毛利率约80.1%；净利润约3.31亿美元、净利率约22.1%；调整后每股收益约2.00美元，业绩略超市场核心关注的盈利质量目标且费用控制到位。管理层在电话会披露三季度运营费用指引约9.0-9.2亿美元，订阅与服务预期保持稳定、交易随市场波动。主营业务方面，交易收入7.64亿美元、订阅与服务收入6.56亿美元，订阅占比提升至约44%，收入结构优化。本季度展望交易活动回暖的驱动与边界进入三季度，研究机构普遍强调比特币价格走强与ETF资金净流的联动作用，带动成交回升与定价改善，交易端预计恢复至环比增长。二季度公司交易收入为7.64亿美元，占整体约51%，零售与机构活跃度与加密资产价格相关度较高；FactSet等模型测算显示，比特币价格每10%的变动对应交易收入约7%-10%的波动，这意味着交易端对行情持续性和波动率结构高度敏感。当行情连续性更强、波动率处于“有利于成交”的区间时，价差与频次改善会同步传导至收入；若波动率快速收敛或价格单边疲弱，交易活跃度可能回落，需要关注季度内的节奏切换。费用侧，管理层延续二季度电话会给出的运营费用约9.0-9.2亿美元的纪律框架，当交易量回升时更容易形成经营杠杆，交易收入增量将较高比例转化为利润。订阅与服务的韧性与扩张路径订阅与服务收入在二季度为6.56亿美元，占比约44%，构成包括USDC利息、质押收益与托管费等；多家机构在7月至9月的前瞻中均指出，USDC利息与质押收益在2025年上半年表现稳健，为三季度毛利维持高位提供基础。三季度预期此板块保持稳定、占比继续在40%以上，重点在于合规托管与结算服务对机构端的渗透，以及对高价值客户的交叉销售提升综合ARPU。Bloomberg Briefs与MarketWatch的预览均提到，机构托管与结算的一体化方案正在抬升ARPU，稳定订阅收入占比。该板块对费用的敏感度较低，受益于运营费用框架的纪律性，利润率的可见性较好。需要跟踪的变量主要是利率环境与政策变动对质押收益和稳定币生态的影响；在当前数据与指引下，结构优化趋势明确，为三季度盈利质量提供支撑。费用与利润率的兑现路径一致预期三季度毛利率约82%、净利率约24%左右，利润率改善的核心来自交易活跃度回升与订阅收入稳定的共振。公司在二季度明确了三季度运营费用目标区间约9.0-9.2亿美元，费用率受控为利润率提升创造条件。一旦交易端出现超预期回暖，收入增量将在既定费用框架下拉动经营杠杆，使净利率呈现弹性；若行情偏缓，订阅端的韧性与高毛利结构有望缓冲利润波动。值得关注的是机构客户与托管业务的交叉销售，MarketWatch与多份券商预览提到通过一体化平台提升综合ARPU，在不显著扩张费用的前提下拉动收入与利润率，这一“轻资产增收”路径或成为利润结构优化的中期抓手。机构与合规平台的协同优势多家研究指出，合规平台的用户留存与机构客户偏好正在形成协同，三季度交易回暖时合规平台的定价与流动性优势更易转化为成交。FactSet与Seeking Alpha的预览均强调，交易端回暖的背景下，受ETF净流与价格走强带动，机构成交与零售活跃度同步改善，且对高净值与机构客户的托管、结算服务的交叉销售开始体现单位用户价值提升。由此带来的“平台协同效应”，一方面稳住订阅端的高毛利与稳定现金流，另一方面在交易端回暖时形成对收入的倍增效应，有助于三季度实现收入与利润率的结构性改善。经营杠杆的形成与风险平衡二季度公司维持运营费用纪律，并为三季度给出明确费用区间，为经营杠杆的兑现打下基础。券商前瞻普遍认为，若三季度交易量不出现突发“急冻”，订阅端的高毛利与稳健现金流将与交易端的增量配合，使得净利率与调整后每股收益表现与一致预期相近甚至略优。需要平衡的风险包括：交易对价格与波动率的高敏感性、政策与利率环境对质押与稳定币收益的扰动、以及季度内产品/功能的可用性与性能事件对活跃度的影响（路透在二季度至三季度前后报道了若干子系统的性能告警，但对核心资金安全与Prime账户未造成实质影响）。整体看，在费用纪律与高毛利订阅护城河的前提下，三季度的利润结构弹性仍然具备较好的实现路径。分析师观点近期三季度前瞻与评级显示，看多观点占据主流。多家机构在9月至10月中旬将目标价区间上调至260-300美元并给予买入/跑赢评级，理由集中在交易回暖、订阅韧性与费用纪律；其中Mizuho将目标价由267美元上调至300美元（Neutral），Barclays维持Equal Weight并小幅下调目标价至361美元，整体评级分布从中性向积极倾斜。FactSet与Bloomberg 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start;\"><strong>交易活动回暖的驱动与边界</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">进入三季度，研究机构普遍强调比特币价格走强与ETF资金净流的联动作用，带动成交回升与定价改善，交易端预计恢复至环比增长。二季度公司交易收入为7.64亿美元，占整体约51%，零售与机构活跃度与加密资产价格相关度较高；FactSet等模型测算显示，比特币价格每10%的变动对应交易收入约7%-10%的波动，这意味着交易端对行情持续性和波动率结构高度敏感。当行情连续性更强、波动率处于“有利于成交”的区间时，价差与频次改善会同步传导至收入；若波动率快速收敛或价格单边疲弱，交易活跃度可能回落，需要关注季度内的节奏切换。费用侧，管理层延续二季度电话会给出的运营费用约9.0-9.2亿美元的纪律框架，当交易量回升时更容易形成经营杠杆，交易收入增量将较高比例转化为利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>订阅与服务的韧性与扩张路径</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">订阅与服务收入在二季度为6.56亿美元，占比约44%，构成包括USDC利息、质押收益与托管费等；多家机构在7月至9月的前瞻中均指出，USDC利息与质押收益在2025年上半年表现稳健，为三季度毛利维持高位提供基础。三季度预期此板块保持稳定、占比继续在40%以上，重点在于合规托管与结算服务对机构端的渗透，以及对高价值客户的交叉销售提升综合ARPU。Bloomberg Briefs与MarketWatch的预览均提到，机构托管与结算的一体化方案正在抬升ARPU，稳定订阅收入占比。该板块对费用的敏感度较低，受益于运营费用框架的纪律性，利润率的可见性较好。需要跟踪的变量主要是利率环境与政策变动对质押收益和稳定币生态的影响；在当前数据与指引下，结构优化趋势明确，为三季度盈利质量提供支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>费用与利润率的兑现路径</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">一致预期三季度毛利率约82%、净利率约24%左右，利润率改善的核心来自交易活跃度回升与订阅收入稳定的共振。公司在二季度明确了三季度运营费用目标区间约9.0-9.2亿美元，费用率受控为利润率提升创造条件。一旦交易端出现超预期回暖，收入增量将在既定费用框架下拉动经营杠杆，使净利率呈现弹性；若行情偏缓，订阅端的韧性与高毛利结构有望缓冲利润波动。值得关注的是机构客户与托管业务的交叉销售，MarketWatch与多份券商预览提到通过一体化平台提升综合ARPU，在不显著扩张费用的前提下拉动收入与利润率，这一“轻资产增收”路径或成为利润结构优化的中期抓手。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>机构与合规平台的协同优势</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">多家研究指出，合规平台的用户留存与机构客户偏好正在形成协同，三季度交易回暖时合规平台的定价与流动性优势更易转化为成交。FactSet与Seeking Alpha的预览均强调，交易端回暖的背景下，受ETF净流与价格走强带动，机构成交与零售活跃度同步改善，且对高净值与机构客户的托管、结算服务的交叉销售开始体现单位用户价值提升。由此带来的“平台协同效应”，一方面稳住订阅端的高毛利与稳定现金流，另一方面在交易端回暖时形成对收入的倍增效应，有助于三季度实现收入与利润率的结构性改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>经营杠杆的形成与风险平衡</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">二季度公司维持运营费用纪律，并为三季度给出明确费用区间，为经营杠杆的兑现打下基础。券商前瞻普遍认为，若三季度交易量不出现突发“急冻”，订阅端的高毛利与稳健现金流将与交易端的增量配合，使得净利率与调整后每股收益表现与一致预期相近甚至略优。需要平衡的风险包括：交易对价格与波动率的高敏感性、政策与利率环境对质押与稳定币收益的扰动、以及季度内产品/功能的可用性与性能事件对活跃度的影响（路透在二季度至三季度前后报道了若干子系统的性能告警，但对核心资金安全与Prime账户未造成实质影响）。整体看，在费用纪律与高毛利订阅护城河的前提下，三季度的利润结构弹性仍然具备较好的实现路径。</p><h2 id=\"id_1165181632\">分析师观点</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">近期三季度前瞻与评级显示，看多观点占据主流。多家机构在9月至10月中旬将目标价区间上调至260-300美元并给予买入/跑赢评级，理由集中在交易回暖、订阅韧性与费用纪律；其中Mizuho将目标价由267美元上调至300美元（Neutral），Barclays维持Equal Weight并小幅下调目标价至361美元，整体评级分布从中性向积极倾斜。FactSet与Bloomberg Briefs的前瞻均指向：三季度营收约17.2-17.8亿美元、毛利率约82%、净利率约24%左右、调整后EPS约2.1-2.3美元，订阅与服务保持在40%以上的收入占比、OpEx约9.0-9.2亿美元。相对审慎的声音提醒监管与费用压力、交易对行情高度敏感，但在当前数据与指引框架下，主流机构仍倾向于三季度业绩改善的判断。</p><h2 id=\"id_251171598\">总结</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">三季度预期的核心逻辑是“交易回暖叠加订阅稳定”，二者共振提升利润结构。交易端受价格与ETF净流带动、活跃度与定价边际改善，有望在受控费用下形成经营杠杆；订阅与服务端凭借USDC利息、质押与托管费的稳定贡献，维持高毛利与现金流的韧性，为利润率提供底部保护。机构客户的交叉销售与一体化平台协同正抬升ARPU，使收入增长与费用扩张的匹配更为高效。在风险平衡方面，需跟踪交易对波动率的敏感性、利率与监管对订阅构成的影响，以及季度内产品性能与可用性变化。综合当前一致预期与公司已披露的费用框架，三季度收入与盈利质量的改善路径较为清晰。</p><p><em>此内容基于tiger AI数据生成，内容仅供参考。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻｜交易回暖与订阅韧性共振，Coinbase Q3利润结构有望改善</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻｜交易回暖与订阅韧性共振，Coinbase Q3利润结构有望改善\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-10-22 14:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>加密货币交易所<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>将于10月30日美股盘后发布2025财年第三季度财报。根据老虎国际APP数据来源预测，Coinbase第三季度营收为17.75亿美元，同比增长逾47%；调整后每股收益为1.13美元，同比增长逾303%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e4419d028de9af7f1079bf003f4443\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"531\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2982823303\">上季度回顾</h2><p>二季度营收14.972亿美元，同比增长约3.3%；毛利率约80.1%；净利润约3.31亿美元、净利率约22.1%；调整后每股收益约2.00美元，业绩略超市场核心关注的盈利质量目标且费用控制到位。管理层在电话会披露三季度运营费用指引约9.0-9.2亿美元，订阅与服务预期保持稳定、交易随市场波动。主营业务方面，交易收入7.64亿美元、订阅与服务收入6.56亿美元，订阅占比提升至约44%，收入结构优化。</p><h2 id=\"id_3674218905\">本季度展望</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>交易活动回暖的驱动与边界</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">进入三季度，研究机构普遍强调比特币价格走强与ETF资金净流的联动作用，带动成交回升与定价改善，交易端预计恢复至环比增长。二季度公司交易收入为7.64亿美元，占整体约51%，零售与机构活跃度与加密资产价格相关度较高；FactSet等模型测算显示，比特币价格每10%的变动对应交易收入约7%-10%的波动，这意味着交易端对行情持续性和波动率结构高度敏感。当行情连续性更强、波动率处于“有利于成交”的区间时，价差与频次改善会同步传导至收入；若波动率快速收敛或价格单边疲弱，交易活跃度可能回落，需要关注季度内的节奏切换。费用侧，管理层延续二季度电话会给出的运营费用约9.0-9.2亿美元的纪律框架，当交易量回升时更容易形成经营杠杆，交易收入增量将较高比例转化为利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>订阅与服务的韧性与扩张路径</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">订阅与服务收入在二季度为6.56亿美元，占比约44%，构成包括USDC利息、质押收益与托管费等；多家机构在7月至9月的前瞻中均指出，USDC利息与质押收益在2025年上半年表现稳健，为三季度毛利维持高位提供基础。三季度预期此板块保持稳定、占比继续在40%以上，重点在于合规托管与结算服务对机构端的渗透，以及对高价值客户的交叉销售提升综合ARPU。Bloomberg Briefs与MarketWatch的预览均提到，机构托管与结算的一体化方案正在抬升ARPU，稳定订阅收入占比。该板块对费用的敏感度较低，受益于运营费用框架的纪律性，利润率的可见性较好。需要跟踪的变量主要是利率环境与政策变动对质押收益和稳定币生态的影响；在当前数据与指引下，结构优化趋势明确，为三季度盈利质量提供支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>费用与利润率的兑现路径</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">一致预期三季度毛利率约82%、净利率约24%左右，利润率改善的核心来自交易活跃度回升与订阅收入稳定的共振。公司在二季度明确了三季度运营费用目标区间约9.0-9.2亿美元，费用率受控为利润率提升创造条件。一旦交易端出现超预期回暖，收入增量将在既定费用框架下拉动经营杠杆，使净利率呈现弹性；若行情偏缓，订阅端的韧性与高毛利结构有望缓冲利润波动。值得关注的是机构客户与托管业务的交叉销售，MarketWatch与多份券商预览提到通过一体化平台提升综合ARPU，在不显著扩张费用的前提下拉动收入与利润率，这一“轻资产增收”路径或成为利润结构优化的中期抓手。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>机构与合规平台的协同优势</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">多家研究指出，合规平台的用户留存与机构客户偏好正在形成协同，三季度交易回暖时合规平台的定价与流动性优势更易转化为成交。FactSet与Seeking Alpha的预览均强调，交易端回暖的背景下，受ETF净流与价格走强带动，机构成交与零售活跃度同步改善，且对高净值与机构客户的托管、结算服务的交叉销售开始体现单位用户价值提升。由此带来的“平台协同效应”，一方面稳住订阅端的高毛利与稳定现金流，另一方面在交易端回暖时形成对收入的倍增效应，有助于三季度实现收入与利润率的结构性改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>经营杠杆的形成与风险平衡</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">二季度公司维持运营费用纪律，并为三季度给出明确费用区间，为经营杠杆的兑现打下基础。券商前瞻普遍认为，若三季度交易量不出现突发“急冻”，订阅端的高毛利与稳健现金流将与交易端的增量配合，使得净利率与调整后每股收益表现与一致预期相近甚至略优。需要平衡的风险包括：交易对价格与波动率的高敏感性、政策与利率环境对质押与稳定币收益的扰动、以及季度内产品/功能的可用性与性能事件对活跃度的影响（路透在二季度至三季度前后报道了若干子系统的性能告警，但对核心资金安全与Prime账户未造成实质影响）。整体看，在费用纪律与高毛利订阅护城河的前提下，三季度的利润结构弹性仍然具备较好的实现路径。</p><h2 id=\"id_1165181632\">分析师观点</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">近期三季度前瞻与评级显示，看多观点占据主流。多家机构在9月至10月中旬将目标价区间上调至260-300美元并给予买入/跑赢评级，理由集中在交易回暖、订阅韧性与费用纪律；其中Mizuho将目标价由267美元上调至300美元（Neutral），Barclays维持Equal Weight并小幅下调目标价至361美元，整体评级分布从中性向积极倾斜。FactSet与Bloomberg Briefs的前瞻均指向：三季度营收约17.2-17.8亿美元、毛利率约82%、净利率约24%左右、调整后EPS约2.1-2.3美元，订阅与服务保持在40%以上的收入占比、OpEx约9.0-9.2亿美元。相对审慎的声音提醒监管与费用压力、交易对行情高度敏感，但在当前数据与指引框架下，主流机构仍倾向于三季度业绩改善的判断。</p><h2 id=\"id_251171598\">总结</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">三季度预期的核心逻辑是“交易回暖叠加订阅稳定”，二者共振提升利润结构。交易端受价格与ETF净流带动、活跃度与定价边际改善，有望在受控费用下形成经营杠杆；订阅与服务端凭借USDC利息、质押与托管费的稳定贡献，维持高毛利与现金流的韧性，为利润率提供底部保护。机构客户的交叉销售与一体化平台协同正抬升ARPU，使收入增长与费用扩张的匹配更为高效。在风险平衡方面，需跟踪交易对波动率的敏感性、利率与监管对订阅构成的影响，以及季度内产品性能与可用性变化。综合当前一致预期与公司已披露的费用框架，三季度收入与盈利质量的改善路径较为清晰。</p><p><em>此内容基于tiger AI数据生成，内容仅供参考。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad8c23f9a932c22afd01e3434815bb33","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133230838","content_text":"加密货币交易所Coinbase将于10月30日美股盘后发布2025财年第三季度财报。根据老虎国际APP数据来源预测，Coinbase第三季度营收为17.75亿美元，同比增长逾47%；调整后每股收益为1.13美元，同比增长逾303%。上季度回顾二季度营收14.972亿美元，同比增长约3.3%；毛利率约80.1%；净利润约3.31亿美元、净利率约22.1%；调整后每股收益约2.00美元，业绩略超市场核心关注的盈利质量目标且费用控制到位。管理层在电话会披露三季度运营费用指引约9.0-9.2亿美元，订阅与服务预期保持稳定、交易随市场波动。主营业务方面，交易收入7.64亿美元、订阅与服务收入6.56亿美元，订阅占比提升至约44%，收入结构优化。本季度展望交易活动回暖的驱动与边界进入三季度，研究机构普遍强调比特币价格走强与ETF资金净流的联动作用，带动成交回升与定价改善，交易端预计恢复至环比增长。二季度公司交易收入为7.64亿美元，占整体约51%，零售与机构活跃度与加密资产价格相关度较高；FactSet等模型测算显示，比特币价格每10%的变动对应交易收入约7%-10%的波动，这意味着交易端对行情持续性和波动率结构高度敏感。当行情连续性更强、波动率处于“有利于成交”的区间时，价差与频次改善会同步传导至收入；若波动率快速收敛或价格单边疲弱，交易活跃度可能回落，需要关注季度内的节奏切换。费用侧，管理层延续二季度电话会给出的运营费用约9.0-9.2亿美元的纪律框架，当交易量回升时更容易形成经营杠杆，交易收入增量将较高比例转化为利润。订阅与服务的韧性与扩张路径订阅与服务收入在二季度为6.56亿美元，占比约44%，构成包括USDC利息、质押收益与托管费等；多家机构在7月至9月的前瞻中均指出，USDC利息与质押收益在2025年上半年表现稳健，为三季度毛利维持高位提供基础。三季度预期此板块保持稳定、占比继续在40%以上，重点在于合规托管与结算服务对机构端的渗透，以及对高价值客户的交叉销售提升综合ARPU。Bloomberg Briefs与MarketWatch的预览均提到，机构托管与结算的一体化方案正在抬升ARPU，稳定订阅收入占比。该板块对费用的敏感度较低，受益于运营费用框架的纪律性，利润率的可见性较好。需要跟踪的变量主要是利率环境与政策变动对质押收益和稳定币生态的影响；在当前数据与指引下，结构优化趋势明确，为三季度盈利质量提供支撑。费用与利润率的兑现路径一致预期三季度毛利率约82%、净利率约24%左右，利润率改善的核心来自交易活跃度回升与订阅收入稳定的共振。公司在二季度明确了三季度运营费用目标区间约9.0-9.2亿美元，费用率受控为利润率提升创造条件。一旦交易端出现超预期回暖，收入增量将在既定费用框架下拉动经营杠杆，使净利率呈现弹性；若行情偏缓，订阅端的韧性与高毛利结构有望缓冲利润波动。值得关注的是机构客户与托管业务的交叉销售，MarketWatch与多份券商预览提到通过一体化平台提升综合ARPU，在不显著扩张费用的前提下拉动收入与利润率，这一“轻资产增收”路径或成为利润结构优化的中期抓手。机构与合规平台的协同优势多家研究指出，合规平台的用户留存与机构客户偏好正在形成协同，三季度交易回暖时合规平台的定价与流动性优势更易转化为成交。FactSet与Seeking Alpha的预览均强调，交易端回暖的背景下，受ETF净流与价格走强带动，机构成交与零售活跃度同步改善，且对高净值与机构客户的托管、结算服务的交叉销售开始体现单位用户价值提升。由此带来的“平台协同效应”，一方面稳住订阅端的高毛利与稳定现金流，另一方面在交易端回暖时形成对收入的倍增效应，有助于三季度实现收入与利润率的结构性改善。经营杠杆的形成与风险平衡二季度公司维持运营费用纪律，并为三季度给出明确费用区间，为经营杠杆的兑现打下基础。券商前瞻普遍认为，若三季度交易量不出现突发“急冻”，订阅端的高毛利与稳健现金流将与交易端的增量配合，使得净利率与调整后每股收益表现与一致预期相近甚至略优。需要平衡的风险包括：交易对价格与波动率的高敏感性、政策与利率环境对质押与稳定币收益的扰动、以及季度内产品/功能的可用性与性能事件对活跃度的影响（路透在二季度至三季度前后报道了若干子系统的性能告警，但对核心资金安全与Prime账户未造成实质影响）。整体看，在费用纪律与高毛利订阅护城河的前提下，三季度的利润结构弹性仍然具备较好的实现路径。分析师观点近期三季度前瞻与评级显示，看多观点占据主流。多家机构在9月至10月中旬将目标价区间上调至260-300美元并给予买入/跑赢评级，理由集中在交易回暖、订阅韧性与费用纪律；其中Mizuho将目标价由267美元上调至300美元（Neutral），Barclays维持Equal Weight并小幅下调目标价至361美元，整体评级分布从中性向积极倾斜。FactSet与Bloomberg Briefs的前瞻均指向：三季度营收约17.2-17.8亿美元、毛利率约82%、净利率约24%左右、调整后EPS约2.1-2.3美元，订阅与服务保持在40%以上的收入占比、OpEx约9.0-9.2亿美元。相对审慎的声音提醒监管与费用压力、交易对行情高度敏感，但在当前数据与指引框架下，主流机构仍倾向于三季度业绩改善的判断。总结三季度预期的核心逻辑是“交易回暖叠加订阅稳定”，二者共振提升利润结构。交易端受价格与ETF净流带动、活跃度与定价边际改善，有望在受控费用下形成经营杠杆；订阅与服务端凭借USDC利息、质押与托管费的稳定贡献，维持高毛利与现金流的韧性，为利润率提供底部保护。机构客户的交叉销售与一体化平台协同正抬升ARPU，使收入增长与费用扩张的匹配更为高效。在风险平衡方面，需跟踪交易对波动率的敏感性、利率与监管对订阅构成的影响，以及季度内产品性能与可用性变化。综合当前一致预期与公司已披露的费用框架，三季度收入与盈利质量的改善路径较为清晰。此内容基于tiger AI数据生成，内容仅供参考。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":492819965829208,"gmtCreate":1761286167503,"gmtModify":1761286169378,"author":{"id":"4104232728043510","authorId":"4104232728043510","name":"把我的钱还给我 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