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01-31

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Replying to @松山湖小树:到处复读？//@松山湖小树:牢8快快清仓水果了[捂脸]

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川普与石油商有协议，怎么可能随便下跌？利空？等创新高就是了

原油：特朗普胜选油市利空来临

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2024-01-30

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2024-01-30

$拼多多(PDD)$ 坚信大摩空

2024-01-20

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@松山湖小树:到处复读？//@松山湖小树:牢8快快清仓水果了[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398261453832736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369184289394776,"gmtCreate":1731170459295,"gmtModify":1731170461372,"author":{"id":"4134535342725140","authorId":"4134535342725140","name":"宇宙虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59104d7c802c3277a857f441400f1029","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4134535342725140","idStr":"4134535342725140"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"川普与石油商有协议，怎么可能随便下跌？利空？等创新高就是了","listText":"川普与石油商有协议，怎么可能随便下跌？利空？等创新高就是了","text":"川普与石油商有协议，怎么可能随便下跌？利空？等创新高就是了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369184289394776","repostId":"2482496473","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2482496473","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1731122903,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2482496473?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-09 11:28","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"原油：特朗普胜选 油市利空来临","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2482496473","media":"中粮期货","summary":"【原油：特朗普胜选 油市利空来临】美国总统选举结果落地。从选举之前开始，十一月市场率先交易特朗普预期，至大选开票过程中，特朗普优势提前反映在盘面上，油价逐步回落。但周三夜盘国内外油价均走出v字反弹收复跌幅，为宏观市场情绪好转以及天气等临时因素带动油价走强，大选实际的影响并未完全交易。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>　　美国总统选举结果落地。从选举之前开始，十一月市场率先交易特朗普预期，至大选开票过程中，特朗普优势提前反映在盘面上，油价逐步回落。但周三夜盘国内外油价均走出v字反弹收复跌幅，为宏观市场情绪好转以及天气等临时因素带动油价走强，大选实际的影响并未完全交易。</p><p>　　如我们此前一直坚持的判断，特朗普当选对油价是更加利空的因素，如果说哈里斯胜选的情况更容易维持油价底部持稳，那么特朗普路径兑现则是让油价底部突破有了更强的驱动。<strong>从基本面、情绪以及地缘风险的展望来看，未来特朗普政府的政策预期对油价都将产生比较显著的利空。</strong></p><p><strong>一</strong></p><p>　　<strong>供给端：美国增产&amp;竞争增产</strong></p><p>　　特朗普对于能源政策最大的特征在于，明确支持传统石油企业，而对民主党一直以来推行的<span>新能源</span><span></span>政策相对没那么大的兴趣。从政策指定上，特朗普上台后大概率会放宽对石油企业的限制，同时执政期间<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0493\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">新能源</span>替代效应减速，对油企形成更好的投资前景。</p><p>　　目前美国的原油产量正处于历史高位，但今年以来的增产速度明显放缓，因油企的扩张投资不足，新开采油井和钻机数量均有限，主要靠单产增长实现增产。</p><p><strong>图1：美国原油产量位于高位</strong></p><center><img src=\"https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D25643969522615122713_w478h290.jpg\" width=\"100%\"/></center><p>　　数据来源：refinitiv，中粮期货研究院</p><p>　　根据EIA的估计，如果按照当前的投资增速，美国明年全年平均增长空间仅为30万桶/日，或2.2%。但如果投资扩张，以及<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0493\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">新能源</span>政策有所放松，该增长空间将有所增大，我们推测增长最多可能达到至80-100万桶/日，或6%。</p><p>　　因此特朗普政府的能源政策将决定美国增长潜力，大概率对于传统能源行业尤其是页岩油企业，将形成长期的趋势性利好，美国产量将达到1400万桶/日以上的历史新高。</p><p><strong>图2：美国新钻机数量仍在下滑</strong></p><center><img src=\"https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D24729708728144686455_w519h299.jpg\" width=\"100%\"/></center><p>　　数据来源：wind，中粮期货研究院</p><p>　　美国增产的间接影响是，OPEC+集团本就下降的份额进一步加速被挤压。随着减产的执行率和实际效果持续打折扣，OPEC+通过减产来稳油价的阻力越来越大，其内部也不断出现放松减产的声音。</p><p>　　从成本来看，OPEC主要国家的实际开采成本虽然是世界最低，但沙特等国对石油出口依赖性很强，计算财政支出的综合成本要在90美元以上，持续低于Brent价格。并且市场对未来的油价预期已经普遍下调，这种基调下沙特开始选择放弃高油价目标，转为竞争市场份额来减缓财政压力。</p><p>　　据悉沙特在胜选后已经表示愿与美国加强合作，或为减产协议更多变数埋下伏笔。OPEC+暂时的合作平衡将会进一步被打破，主要几大供应国的产量都会或多或少呈增长趋势，供给端呈现加速上升。</p><p><strong>二</strong></p><p>　　<strong>需求端：财政扩张vs贸易摩擦</strong></p><p>　　需求端来看，未来特朗普政府的政策主要有两方面影响。</p><p>　　第一在于美国国内的财政，普遍认为特朗普上台后更倾向于推出扩张的财政政策，这对于美国需求将有一个长期的利好预期。但具体细节充满不确定性，且需要一个更长的周期来体现，</p><p>　　第二在于贸易摩擦的预期。目前国内市场主要关注贸易摩擦对出口的影响，不仅是中美之间，包括美欧之间加征关税的预期都可能对需求增长形成一定程度的不利，而相关国家大多是能源消费国，这就导致长期原油需求将受到抑制。但程度目前同样很难量化，市场也在提前评估和交易需求下降的预期。</p><p>　　综合上述两点，需求端存在利多和利空的因素，但比较来看中短期的影响很明显是第二点权重更高。从时间上和情绪上，贸易摩擦已经成为空头的主要逻辑之一，油价大概率在关税政策出台之前就已经抢跑交易，短期利空压力将更为明显。</p><p><strong>三</strong></p><p>　　<strong>地缘：中东矛盾加速结束</strong></p><p>　　地缘局势来看，我们继续维持主要矛盾长期持续但不会显著扩大化的预期。中东地缘有一定升级预期，但特朗普也并不希望以色列战争持续消耗，现有的巴以、伊以等局势风险很难出现大幅外溢，就原油的供给而言，受战争袭击而停产的概率偏小。</p><p>　　俄乌问题可能发生一定转变。俄罗斯大概率跟随OPEC+减产计划，且近期声明已经达到了目标产量，特朗普上台可能加快俄乌冲突的结束，届时将更利于俄罗斯石油出口充分释放，供给将面临上升风险。</p><p>　　值得关注的是，市场预期特朗普上台后可能加大对伊朗制裁，或为油价潜在利多。但问题在于伊朗受制裁已久，早已找到不受监管的灰色出口途径，部分原油正是以这种形式继续出口。因此加大制裁对伊朗供给的影响料比较有限，除非采取更强更有效的监督，否则很难真正抑制出口。</p><p><strong>四</strong></p><p>　　<strong>结论</strong></p><p>　　综上所述，无论从供给、需求还是地缘，特朗普上台对油价的利空影响是多方面的。加上演讲中特朗普已明确表示将增产压价、增加原油和成品油供应，其政策目标也会更加追求低油价。</p><p>　　长期而言原油中位震荡的格局将发生改变，或进入新的运行区间。<strong>尽管目前油价支撑力量强于预期，但随着基本面趋于宽松，将给油价不断施压，前高85美元之上难以重现。相应地，短期回调之后，震荡下行仍是主要方向， 今年Brent底部维持的70美元左右支撑很难保持，长期运行的下方低点或为60美元左右，中短期低点65美元左右。</strong></p><p>（文章来源：中粮期货）</p> </div></body></html>","source":"east_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>原油：特朗普胜选 油市利空来临</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n原油：特朗普胜选 油市利空来临\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-09 11:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202411093234607146.html><strong>中粮期货</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国总统选举结果落地。从选举之前开始，十一月市场率先交易特朗普预期，至大选开票过程中，特朗普优势提前反映在盘面上，油价逐步回落。但周三夜盘国内外油价均走出v字反弹收复跌幅，为宏观市场情绪好转以及天气等临时因素带动油价走强，大选实际的影响并未完全交易。　　如我们此前一直坚持的判断，特朗普当选对油价是更加利空的因素，如果说哈里斯胜选的情况更容易维持油价底部持稳，那么特朗普路径兑现则是让油价底部突破有了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202411093234607146.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN"},"source_url":"http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202411093234607146.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2482496473","content_text":"美国总统选举结果落地。从选举之前开始，十一月市场率先交易特朗普预期，至大选开票过程中，特朗普优势提前反映在盘面上，油价逐步回落。但周三夜盘国内外油价均走出v字反弹收复跌幅，为宏观市场情绪好转以及天气等临时因素带动油价走强，大选实际的影响并未完全交易。　　如我们此前一直坚持的判断，特朗普当选对油价是更加利空的因素，如果说哈里斯胜选的情况更容易维持油价底部持稳，那么特朗普路径兑现则是让油价底部突破有了更强的驱动。从基本面、情绪以及地缘风险的展望来看，未来特朗普政府的政策预期对油价都将产生比较显著的利空。一　　供给端：美国增产&竞争增产　　特朗普对于能源政策最大的特征在于，明确支持传统石油企业，而对民主党一直以来推行的新能源政策相对没那么大的兴趣。从政策指定上，特朗普上台后大概率会放宽对石油企业的限制，同时执政期间新能源替代效应减速，对油企形成更好的投资前景。　　目前美国的原油产量正处于历史高位，但今年以来的增产速度明显放缓，因油企的扩张投资不足，新开采油井和钻机数量均有限，主要靠单产增长实现增产。图1：美国原油产量位于高位　　数据来源：refinitiv，中粮期货研究院　　根据EIA的估计，如果按照当前的投资增速，美国明年全年平均增长空间仅为30万桶/日，或2.2%。但如果投资扩张，以及新能源政策有所放松，该增长空间将有所增大，我们推测增长最多可能达到至80-100万桶/日，或6%。　　因此特朗普政府的能源政策将决定美国增长潜力，大概率对于传统能源行业尤其是页岩油企业，将形成长期的趋势性利好，美国产量将达到1400万桶/日以上的历史新高。图2：美国新钻机数量仍在下滑　　数据来源：wind，中粮期货研究院　　美国增产的间接影响是，OPEC+集团本就下降的份额进一步加速被挤压。随着减产的执行率和实际效果持续打折扣，OPEC+通过减产来稳油价的阻力越来越大，其内部也不断出现放松减产的声音。　　从成本来看，OPEC主要国家的实际开采成本虽然是世界最低，但沙特等国对石油出口依赖性很强，计算财政支出的综合成本要在90美元以上，持续低于Brent价格。并且市场对未来的油价预期已经普遍下调，这种基调下沙特开始选择放弃高油价目标，转为竞争市场份额来减缓财政压力。　　据悉沙特在胜选后已经表示愿与美国加强合作，或为减产协议更多变数埋下伏笔。OPEC+暂时的合作平衡将会进一步被打破，主要几大供应国的产量都会或多或少呈增长趋势，供给端呈现加速上升。二　　需求端：财政扩张vs贸易摩擦　　需求端来看，未来特朗普政府的政策主要有两方面影响。　　第一在于美国国内的财政，普遍认为特朗普上台后更倾向于推出扩张的财政政策，这对于美国需求将有一个长期的利好预期。但具体细节充满不确定性，且需要一个更长的周期来体现，　　第二在于贸易摩擦的预期。目前国内市场主要关注贸易摩擦对出口的影响，不仅是中美之间，包括美欧之间加征关税的预期都可能对需求增长形成一定程度的不利，而相关国家大多是能源消费国，这就导致长期原油需求将受到抑制。但程度目前同样很难量化，市场也在提前评估和交易需求下降的预期。　　综合上述两点，需求端存在利多和利空的因素，但比较来看中短期的影响很明显是第二点权重更高。从时间上和情绪上，贸易摩擦已经成为空头的主要逻辑之一，油价大概率在关税政策出台之前就已经抢跑交易，短期利空压力将更为明显。三　　地缘：中东矛盾加速结束　　地缘局势来看，我们继续维持主要矛盾长期持续但不会显著扩大化的预期。中东地缘有一定升级预期，但特朗普也并不希望以色列战争持续消耗，现有的巴以、伊以等局势风险很难出现大幅外溢，就原油的供给而言，受战争袭击而停产的概率偏小。　　俄乌问题可能发生一定转变。俄罗斯大概率跟随OPEC+减产计划，且近期声明已经达到了目标产量，特朗普上台可能加快俄乌冲突的结束，届时将更利于俄罗斯石油出口充分释放，供给将面临上升风险。　　值得关注的是，市场预期特朗普上台后可能加大对伊朗制裁，或为油价潜在利多。但问题在于伊朗受制裁已久，早已找到不受监管的灰色出口途径，部分原油正是以这种形式继续出口。因此加大制裁对伊朗供给的影响料比较有限，除非采取更强更有效的监督，否则很难真正抑制出口。四　　结论　　综上所述，无论从供给、需求还是地缘，特朗普上台对油价的利空影响是多方面的。加上演讲中特朗普已明确表示将增产压价、增加原油和成品油供应，其政策目标也会更加追求低油价。　　长期而言原油中位震荡的格局将发生改变，或进入新的运行区间。尽管目前油价支撑力量强于预期，但随着基本面趋于宽松，将给油价不断施压，前高85美元之上难以重现。相应地，短期回调之后，震荡下行仍是主要方向， 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Platforms(META)$&nbsp;</a> 跌50%也不过分吧","text":"$Meta Platforms(META)$ 跌50%也不过分吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299105321230432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398261453832736,"gmtCreate":1738253971027,"gmtModify":1738253973971,"author":{"id":"4134535342725140","authorId":"4134535342725140","name":"宇宙虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59104d7c802c3277a857f441400f1029","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4134535342725140","authorIdStr":"4134535342725140"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3505772788119464\">@松山湖小树</a>:到处复读？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3505772788119464\">@松山湖小树</a>:牢8快快清仓水果了[捂脸]","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3505772788119464\">@松山湖小树</a>:到处复读？//<a 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@松山湖小树:到处复读？//@松山湖小树:牢8快快清仓水果了[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398261453832736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369184289394776,"gmtCreate":1731170459295,"gmtModify":1731170461372,"author":{"id":"4134535342725140","authorId":"4134535342725140","name":"宇宙虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59104d7c802c3277a857f441400f1029","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4134535342725140","authorIdStr":"4134535342725140"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"川普与石油商有协议，怎么可能随便下跌？利空？等创新高就是了","listText":"川普与石油商有协议，怎么可能随便下跌？利空？等创新高就是了","text":"川普与石油商有协议，怎么可能随便下跌？利空？等创新高就是了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369184289394776","repostId":"2482496473","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2482496473","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1731122903,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2482496473?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-09 11:28","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"原油：特朗普胜选 油市利空来临","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2482496473","media":"中粮期货","summary":"【原油：特朗普胜选 油市利空来临】美国总统选举结果落地。从选举之前开始，十一月市场率先交易特朗普预期，至大选开票过程中，特朗普优势提前反映在盘面上，油价逐步回落。但周三夜盘国内外油价均走出v字反弹收复跌幅，为宏观市场情绪好转以及天气等临时因素带动油价走强，大选实际的影响并未完全交易。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>　　美国总统选举结果落地。从选举之前开始，十一月市场率先交易特朗普预期，至大选开票过程中，特朗普优势提前反映在盘面上，油价逐步回落。但周三夜盘国内外油价均走出v字反弹收复跌幅，为宏观市场情绪好转以及天气等临时因素带动油价走强，大选实际的影响并未完全交易。</p><p>　　如我们此前一直坚持的判断，特朗普当选对油价是更加利空的因素，如果说哈里斯胜选的情况更容易维持油价底部持稳，那么特朗普路径兑现则是让油价底部突破有了更强的驱动。<strong>从基本面、情绪以及地缘风险的展望来看，未来特朗普政府的政策预期对油价都将产生比较显著的利空。</strong></p><p><strong>一</strong></p><p>　　<strong>供给端：美国增产&amp;竞争增产</strong></p><p>　　特朗普对于能源政策最大的特征在于，明确支持传统石油企业，而对民主党一直以来推行的<span>新能源</span><span></span>政策相对没那么大的兴趣。从政策指定上，特朗普上台后大概率会放宽对石油企业的限制，同时执政期间<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0493\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">新能源</span>替代效应减速，对油企形成更好的投资前景。</p><p>　　目前美国的原油产量正处于历史高位，但今年以来的增产速度明显放缓，因油企的扩张投资不足，新开采油井和钻机数量均有限，主要靠单产增长实现增产。</p><p><strong>图1：美国原油产量位于高位</strong></p><center><img src=\"https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D25643969522615122713_w478h290.jpg\" width=\"100%\"/></center><p>　　数据来源：refinitiv，中粮期货研究院</p><p>　　根据EIA的估计，如果按照当前的投资增速，美国明年全年平均增长空间仅为30万桶/日，或2.2%。但如果投资扩张，以及<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0493\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">新能源</span>政策有所放松，该增长空间将有所增大，我们推测增长最多可能达到至80-100万桶/日，或6%。</p><p>　　因此特朗普政府的能源政策将决定美国增长潜力，大概率对于传统能源行业尤其是页岩油企业，将形成长期的趋势性利好，美国产量将达到1400万桶/日以上的历史新高。</p><p><strong>图2：美国新钻机数量仍在下滑</strong></p><center><img src=\"https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D24729708728144686455_w519h299.jpg\" width=\"100%\"/></center><p>　　数据来源：wind，中粮期货研究院</p><p>　　美国增产的间接影响是，OPEC+集团本就下降的份额进一步加速被挤压。随着减产的执行率和实际效果持续打折扣，OPEC+通过减产来稳油价的阻力越来越大，其内部也不断出现放松减产的声音。</p><p>　　从成本来看，OPEC主要国家的实际开采成本虽然是世界最低，但沙特等国对石油出口依赖性很强，计算财政支出的综合成本要在90美元以上，持续低于Brent价格。并且市场对未来的油价预期已经普遍下调，这种基调下沙特开始选择放弃高油价目标，转为竞争市场份额来减缓财政压力。</p><p>　　据悉沙特在胜选后已经表示愿与美国加强合作，或为减产协议更多变数埋下伏笔。OPEC+暂时的合作平衡将会进一步被打破，主要几大供应国的产量都会或多或少呈增长趋势，供给端呈现加速上升。</p><p><strong>二</strong></p><p>　　<strong>需求端：财政扩张vs贸易摩擦</strong></p><p>　　需求端来看，未来特朗普政府的政策主要有两方面影响。</p><p>　　第一在于美国国内的财政，普遍认为特朗普上台后更倾向于推出扩张的财政政策，这对于美国需求将有一个长期的利好预期。但具体细节充满不确定性，且需要一个更长的周期来体现，</p><p>　　第二在于贸易摩擦的预期。目前国内市场主要关注贸易摩擦对出口的影响，不仅是中美之间，包括美欧之间加征关税的预期都可能对需求增长形成一定程度的不利，而相关国家大多是能源消费国，这就导致长期原油需求将受到抑制。但程度目前同样很难量化，市场也在提前评估和交易需求下降的预期。</p><p>　　综合上述两点，需求端存在利多和利空的因素，但比较来看中短期的影响很明显是第二点权重更高。从时间上和情绪上，贸易摩擦已经成为空头的主要逻辑之一，油价大概率在关税政策出台之前就已经抢跑交易，短期利空压力将更为明显。</p><p><strong>三</strong></p><p>　　<strong>地缘：中东矛盾加速结束</strong></p><p>　　地缘局势来看，我们继续维持主要矛盾长期持续但不会显著扩大化的预期。中东地缘有一定升级预期，但特朗普也并不希望以色列战争持续消耗，现有的巴以、伊以等局势风险很难出现大幅外溢，就原油的供给而言，受战争袭击而停产的概率偏小。</p><p>　　俄乌问题可能发生一定转变。俄罗斯大概率跟随OPEC+减产计划，且近期声明已经达到了目标产量，特朗普上台可能加快俄乌冲突的结束，届时将更利于俄罗斯石油出口充分释放，供给将面临上升风险。</p><p>　　值得关注的是，市场预期特朗普上台后可能加大对伊朗制裁，或为油价潜在利多。但问题在于伊朗受制裁已久，早已找到不受监管的灰色出口途径，部分原油正是以这种形式继续出口。因此加大制裁对伊朗供给的影响料比较有限，除非采取更强更有效的监督，否则很难真正抑制出口。</p><p><strong>四</strong></p><p>　　<strong>结论</strong></p><p>　　综上所述，无论从供给、需求还是地缘，特朗普上台对油价的利空影响是多方面的。加上演讲中特朗普已明确表示将增产压价、增加原油和成品油供应，其政策目标也会更加追求低油价。</p><p>　　长期而言原油中位震荡的格局将发生改变，或进入新的运行区间。<strong>尽管目前油价支撑力量强于预期，但随着基本面趋于宽松，将给油价不断施压，前高85美元之上难以重现。相应地，短期回调之后，震荡下行仍是主要方向， 今年Brent底部维持的70美元左右支撑很难保持，长期运行的下方低点或为60美元左右，中短期低点65美元左右。</strong></p><p>（文章来源：中粮期货）</p> </div></body></html>","source":"east_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>原油：特朗普胜选 油市利空来临</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n原油：特朗普胜选 油市利空来临\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-09 11:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202411093234607146.html><strong>中粮期货</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国总统选举结果落地。从选举之前开始，十一月市场率先交易特朗普预期，至大选开票过程中，特朗普优势提前反映在盘面上，油价逐步回落。但周三夜盘国内外油价均走出v字反弹收复跌幅，为宏观市场情绪好转以及天气等临时因素带动油价走强，大选实际的影响并未完全交易。　　如我们此前一直坚持的判断，特朗普当选对油价是更加利空的因素，如果说哈里斯胜选的情况更容易维持油价底部持稳，那么特朗普路径兑现则是让油价底部突破有了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202411093234607146.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN"},"source_url":"http://futures.eastmoney.com/news/1512,202411093234607146.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2482496473","content_text":"美国总统选举结果落地。从选举之前开始，十一月市场率先交易特朗普预期，至大选开票过程中，特朗普优势提前反映在盘面上，油价逐步回落。但周三夜盘国内外油价均走出v字反弹收复跌幅，为宏观市场情绪好转以及天气等临时因素带动油价走强，大选实际的影响并未完全交易。　　如我们此前一直坚持的判断，特朗普当选对油价是更加利空的因素，如果说哈里斯胜选的情况更容易维持油价底部持稳，那么特朗普路径兑现则是让油价底部突破有了更强的驱动。从基本面、情绪以及地缘风险的展望来看，未来特朗普政府的政策预期对油价都将产生比较显著的利空。一　　供给端：美国增产&竞争增产　　特朗普对于能源政策最大的特征在于，明确支持传统石油企业，而对民主党一直以来推行的新能源政策相对没那么大的兴趣。从政策指定上，特朗普上台后大概率会放宽对石油企业的限制，同时执政期间新能源替代效应减速，对油企形成更好的投资前景。　　目前美国的原油产量正处于历史高位，但今年以来的增产速度明显放缓，因油企的扩张投资不足，新开采油井和钻机数量均有限，主要靠单产增长实现增产。图1：美国原油产量位于高位　　数据来源：refinitiv，中粮期货研究院　　根据EIA的估计，如果按照当前的投资增速，美国明年全年平均增长空间仅为30万桶/日，或2.2%。但如果投资扩张，以及新能源政策有所放松，该增长空间将有所增大，我们推测增长最多可能达到至80-100万桶/日，或6%。　　因此特朗普政府的能源政策将决定美国增长潜力，大概率对于传统能源行业尤其是页岩油企业，将形成长期的趋势性利好，美国产量将达到1400万桶/日以上的历史新高。图2：美国新钻机数量仍在下滑　　数据来源：wind，中粮期货研究院　　美国增产的间接影响是，OPEC+集团本就下降的份额进一步加速被挤压。随着减产的执行率和实际效果持续打折扣，OPEC+通过减产来稳油价的阻力越来越大，其内部也不断出现放松减产的声音。　　从成本来看，OPEC主要国家的实际开采成本虽然是世界最低，但沙特等国对石油出口依赖性很强，计算财政支出的综合成本要在90美元以上，持续低于Brent价格。并且市场对未来的油价预期已经普遍下调，这种基调下沙特开始选择放弃高油价目标，转为竞争市场份额来减缓财政压力。　　据悉沙特在胜选后已经表示愿与美国加强合作，或为减产协议更多变数埋下伏笔。OPEC+暂时的合作平衡将会进一步被打破，主要几大供应国的产量都会或多或少呈增长趋势，供给端呈现加速上升。二　　需求端：财政扩张vs贸易摩擦　　需求端来看，未来特朗普政府的政策主要有两方面影响。　　第一在于美国国内的财政，普遍认为特朗普上台后更倾向于推出扩张的财政政策，这对于美国需求将有一个长期的利好预期。但具体细节充满不确定性，且需要一个更长的周期来体现，　　第二在于贸易摩擦的预期。目前国内市场主要关注贸易摩擦对出口的影响，不仅是中美之间，包括美欧之间加征关税的预期都可能对需求增长形成一定程度的不利，而相关国家大多是能源消费国，这就导致长期原油需求将受到抑制。但程度目前同样很难量化，市场也在提前评估和交易需求下降的预期。　　综合上述两点，需求端存在利多和利空的因素，但比较来看中短期的影响很明显是第二点权重更高。从时间上和情绪上，贸易摩擦已经成为空头的主要逻辑之一，油价大概率在关税政策出台之前就已经抢跑交易，短期利空压力将更为明显。三　　地缘：中东矛盾加速结束　　地缘局势来看，我们继续维持主要矛盾长期持续但不会显著扩大化的预期。中东地缘有一定升级预期，但特朗普也并不希望以色列战争持续消耗，现有的巴以、伊以等局势风险很难出现大幅外溢，就原油的供给而言，受战争袭击而停产的概率偏小。　　俄乌问题可能发生一定转变。俄罗斯大概率跟随OPEC+减产计划，且近期声明已经达到了目标产量，特朗普上台可能加快俄乌冲突的结束，届时将更利于俄罗斯石油出口充分释放，供给将面临上升风险。　　值得关注的是，市场预期特朗普上台后可能加大对伊朗制裁，或为油价潜在利多。但问题在于伊朗受制裁已久，早已找到不受监管的灰色出口途径，部分原油正是以这种形式继续出口。因此加大制裁对伊朗供给的影响料比较有限，除非采取更强更有效的监督，否则很难真正抑制出口。四　　结论　　综上所述，无论从供给、需求还是地缘，特朗普上台对油价的利空影响是多方面的。加上演讲中特朗普已明确表示将增产压价、增加原油和成品油供应，其政策目标也会更加追求低油价。　　长期而言原油中位震荡的格局将发生改变，或进入新的运行区间。尽管目前油价支撑力量强于预期，但随着基本面趋于宽松，将给油价不断施压，前高85美元之上难以重现。相应地，短期回调之后，震荡下行仍是主要方向， 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